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Accessible Version Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on June 2324, 2009. FOMC Minutes | Summary of Economic Projections Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2009-11 and over the longer run Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2011 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2004 through 2008. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. Change in real GDP Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 Actual 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - 2008 -0.8 - 2009 -0.6 -1.0 -1.5 -1.6 2010 4.0 3.3 2.1 0.8 2011 5.0 4.6 3.8 2.3 Longer Run 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 Unemployment rate Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 Actual 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - 2008 6.9 - 2009 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.7 2010 10.6 9.8 9.5 8.5 2011 9.2 8.8 8.4 6.8 Longer Run 6.0 5.0 4.8 4.5 PCE inflation Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 Actual 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency - 2008 1.9 - 2009 1.8 1.4 1.0 2010 2.0 1.8 1.2 2011 2.5 2.0 1.1 Longer Run 2.1 2.0 1.7 Lower End of Range - - - Core PCE inflation Percent 2004 2005 2006 Actual 2.2 2.2 2.3 Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - - - 1.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 2007 2.2 - 2008 1.9 - 2009 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 2010 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2011 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2009-11 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2009 2010 2011 Percent range June April June April June April projections projections projections projections projections projections -2.6 - -2.5 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2.4 - -2.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.2 - -2.1 0 2 0 0 0 0 -2.0 - -1.9 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1.8 - -1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.6 - -1.5 4 7 0 0 0 0 -1.4 - -1.3 4 2 0 0 0 0 -1.2 - -1.1 4 1 0 0 0 0 -1.0 - -0.9 4 0 0 0 0 0 -0.8 - -0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.6 - -0.5 1 2 0 0 0 0 -0.4 - -0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 - -0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 - 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 - 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 - 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 - 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 Longer Run June April projections projections 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 - 0.9 1.0 - 1.1 1.2 - 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 - 1.5 1.6 - 1.7 1.8 - 1.9 2.0 - 2.1 2.2 - 2.3 2.4 - 2.5 2.6 - 2.7 2.8 - 2.9 3.0 - 3.1 3.2 - 3.3 3.4 - 3.5 3.6 - 3.7 3.8 - 3.9 4.0 - 4.1 4.2 - 4.3 4.4 - 4.5 4.6 - 4.7 4.8 - 4.9 5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0 3 2 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 1 4 3 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 11 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2009-11 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2009 2010 2011 Percent range June April June April June April projections projections projections projections projections projections 4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 1 Longer Run June April projections projections 1 1 0 0 3 4 10 9 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6.6 - 6.7 6.8 - 6.9 7.0 - 7.1 7.2 - 7.3 7.4 - 7.5 7.6 - 7.7 7.8 - 7.9 8.0 - 8.1 8.2 - 8.3 8.4 - 8.5 8.6 - 8.7 8.8 - 8.9 9.0 - 9.1 9.2 - 9.3 9.4 - 9.5 9.6 - 9.7 9.8 - 9.9 10.0 - 10.1 10.2-10.3 10.4-10.5 10.6-10.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 6 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 6 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 6 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 4 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2009-11 and over the longer run Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2009 2010 2011 Percent range June April June April June April projections projections projections projections projections projections -0.5 - -0.4 0 2 0 0 0 0 -0.3 - -0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.1 - 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 0 6 0 0 1 1 0.7 - 0.8 0 5 0 1 0 1 0.9 - 1.0 5 2 2 7 2 4 1.1 - 1.2 4 2 3 2 3 2 Longer Run June April projections projections 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 1.7 - 1.8 1.9 - 2.0 2.1 - 2.2 2.3 - 2.4 2.5 - 2.6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 3 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 6 1 2 1 0 1 0 5 0 3 0 0 1 0 3 2 11 1 0 0 Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2009-11 Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2009 2010 Percent range June April June April projections projections projections projections 0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 0 0 1 1 0.7 - 0.8 0 1 2 4 0.9 - 1.0 0 5 4 4 1.1 - 1.2 1 5 2 2 1.3 - 1.4 8 2 4 3 1.5 - 1.6 5 4 2 2 1.7 - 1.8 1 0 0 0 1.9 - 2.0 2 0 2 1 2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 0 2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 0 2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 0 Return to top 2011 June projections 1 0 1 1 4 2 0 4 2 1 0 0 1 April projections 1 0 0 3 3 1 1 5 1 1 0 0 1 0 3 2 12 0 0 0
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