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Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II June 18, 1976 - FOMC SUPPLEMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System TABLE OF CONTENTS Page THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY Private housing starts....................................... Personal income ........... ................................. Auto prices................ ................................. TABLES: Private housing starts and residential building permits................................ Personal income. ............ ............ .................... THE DOMESTIC FINANCIAL ECONOMY Mortgage market................... ..... ..................... TABLES: Average rates and yields on new-home ...... mortgages............... ..... ..... .................. Interest rates.... .............. ............................ THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS U.S. international transactions.. ............................ TABLE: U.S. international transactions................................ APPENDIX Bank credit revision.......................................... A-1 SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy Private housing starts rose 2 per cent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.42 million units. All of the increase was accounted for by a rise in the rate of multi-family unit starts. though still Al- quite low, the May rate for such units--358,000--was the highest in nearly 2 years. The pace of single-family starts declined slightly further. Residential building permits increased 6 per cent in May. Permits for both single-family and multi-family units were higher than a month earlier. PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS (Seasonally adjusted annual rates, in millions of units) Per cent change in May from: Year Month1975976Month QIV I0 (r) Mar.(r) Apr.(r) May (p) ago ago 1.37 1.40 1.42 1.38 1.42 + 2 +30 1.03 1 - family 2 - or more - family .33 1.12 .28 1.11 .31 1.06 .32 1.06 .36 - 1 +13 +24 +54 1.06 1.13 1.13 1.10 1.16 + 6 +27 1 - family .77 .84 .83 .81 .82 + 1 +25 2 - or more - family .29 .29 .31 .28 .34 +20 +33 STARTS PERMITS - 2 - Personal income rose 10.3 per cent (compound annual rate) from April to May--the same rate as over the January to April period. Wage and salary disbursements grew somewhat faster in May--at a 10.8 compound annual rate compared to 8.8 over the previous three months. Growth in manufacturing payrolls slowed in May, reflecting a decline in the nondurable sector associated with the rubber strike. PERSONAL INCOME (Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate) May 1976 Per Cent Change (compound annual rate) Apr. 76Jan. 76May 75May 76 Apr. 76 May 76 1,357.2 11.5 10.3 10.3 Wage & Salary Disbursements Government Private Manufacturing Other 871.5 185.3 686.2 234.2 452.0 10.7 7.4 11.6 13.9 10.5 8.8 5.2 9.9 10.6 9.5 10.8 7.4 11.7 8.0 13.7 Transfer Payments 188.6 11.4 10.1 -3.7 Other Income 351.4 13.5 13.4 16.7 Total Personal Income Auto prices. Two major auto manufacturers (GM and Chrysler) have given indications, in the form of price protection notification to dealers taking orders from fleet buyers, that the increase on 1977 model cars and trucks may be as high as 6 per cent, about $300 on the - 3 - average for cars. Ford, which followed GM last year, has so far announced similar pricing plans only for heavy-duty trucks and options, also 6 per cent averaging about $750 and $160, respectively, per vehicle. It has been customary to give such "price protection" guarantees by early summer to permit dealers to take firm advance orders from fleet buyers without fear of loss from larger manufacturers' price rises than anticipated. Last year's figure was also 6 per cent on cars; the actual increase varied widely among models but averaged lower. Observers differ on the likelihood of a 6 per cent increase. Expectations of a lower advance are predicated on a relatively moderate wage settlement; the "mix" of auto sales should be more favorable to profit margins than last year and caution about consumer confidence could limit the advance. However, other analysts point to increases in materials prices and improved demand. In any case, increases are expected to be higher on intermediate models, currently in strong demand. A 6 per cent price increase on all cars and trucks would contribute about 0.3 percentage points to the total level of the WPI. The effect is usually concentrated in October. New cars have a lower weight in the CPI--about 2 per cent--and the increase is usually spread over several months, varying with the rate of introduction of new models and with changes in dealers' discounts. Both the WPI and CPI also reflect the BLS adjustment for quality which may be significant this year. -4- The Domestic Financial Economy Mortgage market. According to the HUD (FHA) opinion survey, average interest rates on new commitments for conventional new- and existing-home mortgages rose by 10 basis points during May to 9.00 per cent and 9.05 per cent, respectively. Yields on FHA-insured new-home mortgages for immediate delivery in the private secondary market increased by 21 basis points to 9.03 per cent--implying discounts over 4 points on 8-1/2 per cent FHA mortgages at the end of May. These rate movements are generally consistent with the primary and secondary mortgage market series reported in the Greenbook. AVERAGE RATES AND YIELDS ON NEW-HOME MORTGAGES (HUD-FHA Field Office Opinion Survey) End of Month 1975-Low High 1976-Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Primary market Conventional loans Level 2/ Spread 4/ (per cent) (basis points) Secondary market 1/ FHA-insured loans Level 3/ Spread 4/ Discounts (per cent) (basis points) (points) 8.90 (Mar.) 9.25 (Sept., Oct.) 9.05 9.00 8.95 8.90 9.00 -70 (Mar.) +15 (Jan.) 8.69 (Mar.) 9.74 (Sept.) -91 (Mar.) +31 (Oct.) 2.4 (Dec.) 6.2 (Aug.) +39 +42 +42 +32 + 5 9.06 9.04 n.a. 8.82 9.03 +40 446 n.a. +24 + 8 2.4 2.2 n.a. 2.5 4.1 Any gaps in data are due to periods of adjustment to changes in maximum permissible contract rates on FHA-insured loans. 2/ Average contract rates (excluding fees on points) on commitments for conventional first mortgage loans, rounded to the nearest 5 basis points. 3/ Average gross yield (before deducting servicing costs) to investors on 30-year minimum-downpayment FHA-insured first mortgages for immediate delivery in the private secondary market (excluding FNMA), assuming prepayment in 15 years. 4/ Average gross mortgage rate or yield minus average yield on new issues of Aaa utility bonds in the last week of the month. 1/ INTEREST RATES (One day quotes - in per cent) 1976 Highs Lows May 17 June 17 Federal funds (wkly. avg.) 5.54( 6/2) 4.70(2/18) 5.28(5/19) 5.47(6/16) 3-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (90-119 day) Bankers' acceptances Euro-dollars CD's (NYC) 90 day 5.57( 6/2) 6.00(6/15) 5.95( 6/2) 6.81( 6/1) 4.68(1/29) 5.00(4/29) 4.80(4/21) 5.25(1/30) 5.22 5.38 5.55 6.00 5.38 5.88 5.75 6.25 5.75(6/16) 4.88(4/21) 5.50(5/19) 5.75(6/16) 5.96(5/27) 6.00(6/17) 6.42(5/27) 4.97(1/29) 5.13(4/29) 5.31( 2/2) 5.69 5.50 6.11 5.75 6.00 6 . 2 7p(6/15) 6.50( 6/2) 5.38(4/21) 6.00(5/19) 6.25(6/16) 6.39(5/27) 6.86(5/28) 5.27( 1/2) 5.82(4/14) 6.02 6.64 6.09 6. 5 9p( 6 /15) 6.75(6/16) 3.70(5/28) 6.00(4/28) 3.00(1/30) 6.38(5/19) 3.55(5/14) 6.75(6/16) 3.45(6/18) 7.82(5/27) 8.20(5/21) 7.12(4/21) 7.77(4/14) 7.63 8.18 7.60 8.02 8.34(4/15) 9.70(6/16) 8.61 9.75 8.62(6/16) 9.70(6/16) 8.95(5/28) 8.38(4/22) 8.82(5/21) 8.6 9 p(6/18) Municipal Bond Buyer Index 7.13( 1/8) 6.54(4/15) 6.91(5/21) 6.85(6/18) Mortgage--average yield in FNMA auction 9.20( 6/1) 8.83(4/19) 9.13 9.14(6/14) Short-Term Rates Most often quoted new 6-month Treasury bills (bid) Comm. paper (4-6 mo.) Federal agencies CD's (NYC) 180 day Most often quoted new 1-year Treasury bills (bid) Federal agencies CD's (NYC) Most often quoted new Prime municipals Intermediate and Long-Term Treasury coupon issues 5-years 20-years Corporate Seasoned Aaa Baa New Issue Aaa Utility 8.66(1/2) 10.34(1/2) - 6The International Developments U.S. International Transactions. Complete first quarter accounts for U.S. international transactions were presented in a Department of Commerce press release on June 16, 1976. It showed that the U.S. current account shifted to near balance from a net surplus of $3.1 billion (quarterly rate) in the fourth quarter. The previously announced swing in the merchandise trade balance to a $1.5 billion deficit, primarily because of an increase in imports of industrial supplies and fuels, was the major element in the shift. Service transactions and unilateral transfers showed relatively minor changes from the fourth quarter. Data available earlier on first quarter bank-reported capital flows and official transactions have not been substantially revised in this release. Net bank-reported capital outflows slowed to $2.2 billion in the first quarter from $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter; U.S. reserve assets increased by $.8 billion compared to a small decline in the fourth; and U.S. liabilities to foreign official agencies increased by nearly $2 billion, about the same as in the fourth quarter. However, a decision by the Commerce Department to no longer seasonally adjust capital account transactions (a practice that had been generating increasingly questionable results) resulted in the press release figure for U.S. liabilities to foreign official agencies being about $1 billion lower than the seasonally adjusted estimate used in the Greenbook. -7The most notable new piece of information in the press release involves the figure for foreign direct investment in the United States which showed an unusual swing from an inflow of $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 1975 to an outflow of $.7 billion in the first quarter. This swing largely reflects a special payout of accumulated dividends to a Middle-Eastern oil-exporting country. As had been anticipated, the statistical discrepancy in the first quarter was an unusually large positive number--$4.6 billion, perhaps related to speculation against sterling and the lira. The June 16, 1976 press release incorporates the recent changes in format for reporting U.S. international transactions that have been adopted by the Commerce Department. The new Commerce Department data are reflected in the following revised table IV-T-1, which appeared in the Greenbook. -8IV - T - 1 U.S. June 21, International Transactions (In millions of dollars) 0 7 1975 YEAR 8,983 107,133 98,150 Q-4 2,199 27,655 25,456 -1 -1,508 26,939 28,447 2,137 4.336 2,566 1.058 -433 -480 1. 2. 3. Trade balance Merchandise exports Merchandise imports 4. 5. Net service transactions Balance on goods and services 1/ 7,286 16.269 6. 7. Remittances and pensions Gov't grants and capital, net -4$4 -L,Z/i -9,936 (-13,238) -10,887 -2,351 -4,423 (-5,287) -4,344 -943 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 1976 Bank-reported private capital, net change Claims on foreigners (inc.-) Short-term Long-term Liabilities to foreigners (inc.+) Long-term liabilities Short-term liabilities 2/ to commercial banks abroad (of which liab. to branches) to other private foreigners to int'l and regional organizations Private transactions in securities, net U.S. purchases (-) of foreign securities of which: New bond issues 22. Foreign purch. (+) of.U.S. corp. securities 23. Stocks 3/ 24. Bonds (includes U.S. Govt. agencies) -1, 27 Mar. -603 9,285 9,888 Apr. -450 9,279 9,729 -2.059 (95) 359 -264 3.049 (-2,314) -2,077 -237 (2,506) (-2,154) (5,363) 137 -2382 -67 (-3,714) (-2,573) -3,469 -2,474 -245 -99 (3,302) (864) -355 91 166 773 3,657 Feb. -227 8,777 9,004 (1,332 -40 179 24 1,166 2,546 -2,333 5,339 (-502) (231) (-746) (1,234) (916 (-831) (2,204) (531) (-2,671) (-2,278) (4,715) (3,184) (1,853) (863) (150 (313) (173) (673) (2,306) (656) (100 (29) (165) (-49) -3.479 (-6,206) (-7,168) (2,727) 3,205 -478 -1.144 (-2,361) (-2,573) (1,217) 944 273 -1.694 1.229 -437 -322 -161 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. U.S. direct investment abroad, (inc.-) Foreign direct investment in U.S., (inc.+) Nonbank-reported: short-term claims (inc.-) long-term claims, (inc.-) liabilities, (inc.+) -6.307 2.437 -925 -.3W 78 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. Changes in liab. to foreign official agencies OPEC countries (inc.+) of which: stocks Other countries (inc.+) Changes in U.S. reserve assets (inc.-) Gold Special drawing rights Reserve position in the IMF Convertible currencies 4.604-/ 5,677 (1,469) -1.07±3/ -607 39. Statistical discrepancy 40. 41. Memo: Official settlements balance, N.S.A. O/S bal. excluding OPEC, N.S.A. 2.088/ 1,780 (519) 3081' 89 -1.481 -947 -591 (-2,507) (-1,201) (-974) (-2,824) (-1,296) (-1,039) (1,026) (254) (383) 942 194 425 84 60 -42 -1.580 -689 -180 -84 24 1 .856 1,500 (531) 356 -773 -66 -466 -75 -21 -57 167 -45 -237 -491 4,602 2,143 4,574 800 219 (177) 581 -39 I -3,997 1,680 -243 (-377) (-470) (134) 154 -20 209 1,058 (157) -849 -330 904 372 (256) 532 -521 -55 -275 14 -170 -365 121 1,179 -383 -11 IA -2,177 -397 -1,083 417 -761 -542 Lines I through 7 are seasonally adjusted. p = preliminary 1/ Differs from "net exports" in the GNP account. The GNP basis excludes U.S. Government rest payments for foreigners from service imports and special military exports to Israel. 2/ Includes transactions in U.S. Treasury bonds and notes. 3/ Excludes OPEC transactions which are included in liabilities to foreign official agencies. E/ Excludes a $250 million increase in liabilities resulting from the revaluation of System swap liabilities to Belgium and Switzerland. A-1 SUPPLEMENTAL APPENDIX A* BANK CREDIT REVISION The seasonally adjusted series on commercial bank credit and its.major components have been revised. The revised data were used in this month's analysis of financial developments. The revision included the updating of seasonal adjustment factors and the usual benchmark revision that incorporates the latest 1975, for nonmember banks. Revisions seasonally adjusted data from 1968 to the more recent years. The benchmark to April 1976 period. Call Report data, December 31, in seasonal factors affected the date, with principal changes in revision covered the July 1975 The principal effect of the combined benchmark and seasonal revisions was to raise the level of total bank credit in the fourth quarter of 1975 and to lower it in the first quarter of 1976. Total loans and investments increased at an annual rate of 4.6% in the OctoberDecember 1975 period which was 1.5 percentage points higher than previously estimated. In the subsequent January-March 1976 period, credit growth was at a rate of 5.5% or 1.8 percentage points lower than indicated earlier. Revisions in both total loans and holdings of U.S. Government securities followed a similar pattern and largely accounted for the changes in total credit, while those in holdings of other securities were small. Revisions in business loans, alone, were large and were downward in both late 1975 and early 1976. These loans were unchanged in the fourth quarter of 1975 compared with an estiated increase of 2.5%. In the first quarter of 1975, the decline, at an annual rate of 7.4%, was 2.1 percentage points larger than estimated earlier. According to the December Call Report data, growth in commercial bank credit was at a somewhat faster pace in the second half of 1975 than the partially estimated data had indicated. Total loans and investments outstanding on December 31, 1975 were raised $2.5 billion in this revision (Table 1). This increase reflected almost entirely more substantial growth in bank loans, which were $2.3 billion higher at the end of 1975 than estimated earlier (Table 2). Holdings of U.S. Treasury securities were nominally lower than previously estimated while holdings of other securities--principally municipals and Federal agency issues-were slightly higher (Table 3 and 4). * The revised seasonal factors were prepared by Edward R. Fry and Mary F. Weaver, and the benchmark revisions by Mary Jane Harrington, Banking Section, Division of Research and Statistics. A - 2 Revisions in the unadjusted data reflect corrections for two sources of error in the original monthly estimates (in addition to estimating errors in the San Francisco District discussed below): 1. Nonmember bank figures for loans were estimated too low. These estimates were derived initially by applying nonmember/country member bank ratios from the June 1975 Call Report to loans reoorted for subsequent months by country member banks. The December Call ratios turned out to be higher than those for June, reflecting more rapid growth in loans at nonmember banks than at country member banks in the sixmonth period. This upward revision in nonmember bank loans was allocated to earlier months back to July 1975, and the new December Call ratios were carried forward in monthly estimates for 1976. 2. Data reported earlier by member banks on form FR 635, which are the principal basis for the all-commercial bank estimates, also were revised by substantial amounts on December 31, 1975. Loans (including interbank) as originally reported by member banks for this date were understated more than $2 billion according to Call Report data. This re- porting error accounted for half of the upward revision in the all-commercial bank estimates for total loans. Most of the error was at the larger member banks, while country member bank data were reasonably accurate. Only on the infrequent occasions when the last-Wednesday of June or December coincides with the Call date, as was the case on December 31, 1975, can such errors be detected, and sometimes they are substantial. However, on such occasions, another source of error in bank credit estimates-"window dressing"--is eliminated. This error is the difference between estimates based on reported data for the last-Wednesday of June or December and the Call Report figures for the last day of June or December that are available after a long lag. Often errors in estimating "window dressing" have contributed heavily to overall errors in the credit series as measured on benchmark dates. The bank loan component of the total bank credit series is estimated on the basis of data reported by member banks including domestic interbank loans. However, estimated interbank loans are excluded from the adjusted all-commercial bank credit series. Interbank loans of nonmember banks are estimated by applying a nonmember/country member bank ratio from the Call Report to current data from country banks, as in the case of total loans. On December 31, 1975, Call data for interbank loans exceeded the estimated data by $1.8 billion. However, since interbank loans are subtracted from total loans, the underestimate of interbank loans partially offset the reporting error mentioned above. In addition to the effects of the usual benchmark revision, patterns of change between the old and new series were affected by a relatively large concurrent revision in basic member bank data from which monthly bank credit estimates are derived. Monthly figures for member A - 3 banks in the San Francisco District are partially estimated as initially reported, and revisions in those data for the July to December 1975 period were incorporated into the series at the time of the benchmark revision. Therefore, "changes due to benchmark" as noted on the tables actually reflect the combined changes of the benchmark and the San Francisco revision. Among the major loan categories, business loans were $2.2 billion lower on December 31 than had been estimated and real estate loans were $1.3 billion higher (Tables 5 and 6). Consumer loans, which are part of consumer credit reports, were not affected by the benchmark revision. Revisions in security, nonbank financial, and agricultural loans were all upward, but by relatively small amounts. The upward adjustment in the residual "all other loans," however, was large. Actual data for these loan categories are available on a current basis only from large weekly reporting banks. Estimates for other commercial banks are made largely on the basis of the movement of total loans at the smaller banks, the trend of business and other loans as indicated by the most recent Call Report, and patterns for previous years established in the monthly benchmarking of the series. The revision in business loans over the second half of 1975 was relatively large by historical standards and was also one of the few instances in which the outstanding level was reduced. In most past revisions, adjustments in business and real estate loans--the two largest loan categories--have been upward, reflecting the fact that revisions in total loans have practically always been upward. In the first quarter of 1976, business loans were reduced by an additional $900 million. About $600 million of this reduction reflected revisions in San Francisco District weekly reporting data associated with adjustments to the March 1976 Call.1/ The revisions in seasonal factors were largest for the most recent years, with some minor revisions affecting the bank credit series back to 1968.2/ The new factors tended to reduce seasonally adjusted growth in total bank credit in the first quarter and to increase it in the second and fourth quarters. For the fourth quarter of 1975 the upward revision was $1.3 billion, and for the first quarter of 1976, the downward revision was $2.5 billion. These changes were reflected mainly 1/ First quarter changes used here are adjusted to exclude a break in series due to portfolio reclassifications in the Chicago and San Francisco Districts which lowered the level of business loans by $1.2 billion in March 1976. 2/ Seasonal factors used prior to this revision were determined basically from the late 1973 seasonal review. However, by late 1975, the 1973 factors were being modified somewhat to take account of changing seasonal patterns for business loans, total loans, and total bank credit. In the current seasonal revision, these changes were carried back to earlier years; so the impacts of seasonal changes shown for recent months in Tables 1, .2, and 5 differ somewhat from those for comparable months of earlier years. A-4 in bank investments in U.S. Government securities and in loans. U.S. Government securities holdings were raised in the fourth quarter of 1975, with a partially offsetting reduction in other securities. In the first quarter of this year, the revisions reduced growth in both U.S. Government security holdings and in total loans, with most of the revision in loans occurring in security loans and loans to nonbank financial institutions. Table 1 Total Loans and Investments 1/2/ (Dollar changes in billions; annual rates in percent) Old Seasonally Adjusted Series 1975--May June Changes Due To: Benchmark 3.0 3.0 New Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates Seasonal Factor Series Old New -1.1 1.4 1.9 4.4 5.1 5.1 3.2 7.5 2.0 6.8 2.0 1.0 5.9 5.7 July August September 1.2 4.0 1.2 -1.1 .5 1.5 .6 -2.0 1.6 .6 3.5 3.4 October November December 3.6 6.3 -4.4 .2 .2 1.1 -. 6 1.9 3.8 5.9 -1.4 6.0 10.5 -7.2 Year 29.7 2.5 -1.9 30.3 4.3 1st Half 2nd Half 17.8 11.9 2.5 -3.3 1.4 14.5 15.8 5.1 3.4 4.2 4.5 1.0 1.5 -5.2 1.9 .1 1.3 4.6 9.9 7.5 8.3 5.7 4.6 3.6 3.1 2.6 5.7 4.2 4.6 -.4 -.9 -1.2 2.1 3.6 4.2 5.3 8.1 8.2 3.5 5.9 7.4 3.3 4.9 5.4 9.9 7.3 5.5 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 9.8 8.0 6.4 5.5 3.2 4.9 5.0 -.7 -. 4 April 3.0 .3 1st Quarter 13.1 -. 7 1976--January February March .4 -2.5 6.3 9.8 -2.3 Last Wednesday of month series Includes loans sold outright to banks' own foreign branches, nonconsolidated nonbank affiliates of the bank, the banks' holding company (if not a bank), and nonconsolidated nonbank subsidiaries of the holding company. Table 2 Total Loans 1/2/ annual rates in percent) billions; in changes (Dollar Old Seasonally Adjusted Series Changes Due To: Benchmark Seasonal Factor New Seasonally Adjusted Series Annual Rates Old New -2.7 -1.4 -5.0 -7.0 -6.5 -1.1 -2.7 1.3 -1.2 2.7 -.7 9.5 9.4 -8.6 8.9 8.4 1.0 3.7 3.5 -1.9 -4.5 -3.9 -2.1 -3.7 -.8 -.7 -8.4 4.5 -1.1 -1.0 -9.5 -3.3 1.8 -3.8 2.3 -4.1 3.0 -4.1 -5.4 -6.7 -3.2 -4.3 -. 9 -. 1 .5 5.3 .2 .4 3.4 4.3 1.0 2.4 1.4 2.4 -1.1 .3 .7 1.6 5.8 .7 1.7 3.8- April -.4 1.0 .8 -1.0 1.9 1st Quarter 4.0 -1.1 2.6 3.2 2.1 -2.1 -2.9 -. 6 1.5 July August September -. 5 1.1 -. 3 -2.0 1.1 October November December 3.9 3.9 -3.6 -.4 -.7 Year 1st Half 2nd Half 1975--May June 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1976--January February March 1/ 2/ -8.4 .3 4.2 .6 .3 5.8 -3.4 .7 3.1 Last Wednesday of Month series Includes loans sold outright to banks' own foreign branches, nonconsolidated nonbank affiliate of the bank, the banks' holding company (if not a bank) and nonconsolidated nonbank subsidiaries of the holding company. Table 3 U.S. Treasury Securities 1 / (Dollar changes in billions; annual rates in percent) Old Seasonally Adjusted Series 1975--May June Changes Due To: Benchmark 4.2 1.0 2.2 1.5 -.2 October November December -2.0 1.2 1.6 -. 2 Year 29.1 -. 1 1st Half 2nd Half 23.6 5.5 -.1 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1976--January February March April 1st Quarter 1/ .1 .1 .1 4.7 .8 2.3 4.2 3.9 3.0 10.4 Last Wednesday of Month series 13.4 44.8 27.2 2.6 -31.1 19.2 25.2 -11.0 12.6 40.6 29.0 59.6 57.5 21.1 7.9 96.7 83.7 22.1 .5 2.0 7.9 13.2 5.2 2.7 79.5 95.0 26.0 -. 6 -. 7 -. 2 1.6 3.4 3.8 35.4 62.8 55.4 24.2 50.0 55.0. -1.2 1.8 40.8 24.5 -1.5 8.8 53.4 44.3 1.5 -.4 .9 2.5 -. 7 -. 1 -. 1 -. 1 .1 New 16.6 36.0 23.8 4.4 4.1 .8 .4 .1 -1.8 9.7 Old 83.8 73.0 -2.5 13.9 Annual Rates 78.8 73.9 .2 -.1 4.2 July August September 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Seasonal Factor New Seasonally Adjusted Series 2.7 1.7 -.7 .8 15.2 4.2 62.7 90.6 29.1 14.1 Other Securities 1/ (Dollar changes in billions; annual rates in percent) Old Seasonally Adjusted Series 1975--May June July August September Changes Due To: New Seasonally -Adjusted Benchmark Seasonal Factor .9 Series Old New -. 7 .2 1.7 7.7 14.5 1.7 14.5 5.9 5.9 7.5 4.2 3.3 14.2 9.9 -19.6 6.6 13.2 -17.1 1.7 .7 .7 -.2 .2 Annual Rates .4 .9 -.4 .5 .4 .4 -1.0 .4 .8 1.7 1.2 .1 -2.4 .3 Year 4.5 .4 .1 5.0 3.2 1st Half 2nd Half 2.6 1.9 .3 .4 -.2 2.9 2.1 2.7 1st 2nd 3rd 4th .1 2.5 1.4 .5 October November December Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1976--January February March April 1st Quarter 1/ .3 -.3 -1.3 -. 4 .1 .4 -1.3 Last Wednesday of Month series -. 3 3.7 4.1 2.9 .8 .3 2.1 1.8 .3 7.1 3.9 1.4 2.3 6.0 5.0 .8 -.3 .1 .2 -. 5 -1.2 2.5 -2.5 -10.8 1.7 -4.1 -10.0- .3 .7 3.3 5.9 .1 -1.5 -3.6 -4.1 .7 -. 4 .4 .4 1.6 -2.1 -.6 .3 Table 5 Business Loans 1/2/ (Dollar changes in billions; annual rates in percent) Old Seasonally Adjusted Series 1975--May June Changes Due To: Benchmark New Seasonally Adjusted Seasonal Factor -. 5 -1.3 -2.7 .8 -.5 -.2 -1.1 -. 8 .1 -. 4 1.6 -. 4 .3 .9 -1.4 -. 1 -. 6 .2 .5 Year -5.0 -2.2 1st Half 2nd Half -6.1 1.1 -2.2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th -1.6 July August September October November December Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1.2 -. 1 -4.5 .3 -.1 -. 2 -1.2 -8.5 -17.8 New -11.8 -12.6 8.0 -.7 -7.3 -. 7 -1.3 10.7 -8.0 -1.5 -9.2 -. 7 -7.9 -2.7 -4.2 -. 3 -6.4 -1.5 -6.6 -. 4 -6.9 -1.7 -.8 -2.4 -3.5 -9.8 .5 -. 4 -1.1 .3 -. 8 -1.9 .2 -. 2 -.9 -. 3 .2 April -1.0 .2 .1 1st Quarter -2.4 -.9 -1.8 -1.9 Old 6.0 4.0 -10.0 1.1 1976--January February March Series Annual Rates .9 .6 -4.0 6.0 1.3 -1.5 -5.1 -8.7 -3.3 2.5 .1 .6 4.0 -8.7 -1.3 -2.6 2.0 -5.3 -12.7 -17.6. -. 9 -6.8 -6.2 -3.3 -5.3 -7.4 Last Wednesday of Month series Includes loans sold outright to banks' own foreign branches, nonconsolidated nonbank affiliates of the bank, the banks' holding company (if not a bank) and nonconsolidated nonbank subsidiaries of the holding company. Table 6 Real Estate Loans 1/ (Dollar changes in billions; annual rates in percent) Old Seasonally Adjusted Series Changes Due To: Benchmark Seasonal Factor 1975--May June New Seasonally Adjusted Series Annual Rates Old New .9 .1 July August September .1 October November December .6 .3 .5 .2 5.5 .3 .4 2.7 4.5 Year 2.9 1.3 2.2 1st Half 2nd Half 1.4 1.5 1.3 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1.0 .4 .1 1.4 1976--January February March .5 .6 .7 .3 .4 .5 5.4 6.3 April .7 .1 6.2 6.9 1st Quarter 1.8 1.2 5.4 8.9 I/ Last Wednesday of Month series .1 .2 .4 .9 -. 1 .1 .9 2.2 2.2 2.3 4.3 3.1 1.2 .3 4.3 3.1 4.5 7.2 10.7 1.2 1.5 7.0 8.8
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