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Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC June 13, 1975 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) June 13, 1975 CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Growth of M1 accelerated to an 11.3 per cent annual rate (1) in May, in June. and recent data suggest that growth may continue at around that pace For the two months combined, expansion in Ml thus appears to be exceeding the high end of the Committee's 7-9½ per cent range of tolerance, as the table shows. Likewise, with flows to bank time deposits other than large CD's very strong in significantly above its annual rate. recent weeks, growth of M2 appears to be running two-month range of tolerance--at about a 13 per cent The rapid disbursement of tax rebates, $8 billion in May and June, is amounting to about thought to be the key factor contributing to the accelerated monetary growth. In addition, has cleared the way for disbursement in recent Congressional action the second half of June of $1.7 billion in one-time payments to social security recipients. Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's over May-June period Reserve and monetary aggregates (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Range Tolerance Latest Estimates M 7-9½ 11.2 M2 9-11½ 13.2 1½-4 -0.6 1 RPD Memo: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) 4½-5½ for statement week ending 5.14 May 28 5.24 June 4 5.15 June 11 Avg. (2) The bank credit proxy appears to be growing at only about a 5 per cent annual rate in the May-June period. With loan demands weak, banks have continued to run off large CD's and have allocated the bulk of their net deposit growth to investments in Treasury securities. (3) Shortly after the May FOMC meeting, with the aggregates strengthening, the Desk sought to achieve reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate trading in the upper half of the 5-5¼ per cent range that represented prevailing money market conditions. As the aggregates continued to strengthen--growing at rates close to or above the upper limits of the Committee's ranges of tolerance--the Desk sought to achieve an average funds rate of 5¼ per cent or a little higher. In the statement week ending June, the funds rate did average about 5¼ per cent, but in the statement week just ended, it edged down to 5.15 per cent despite a very large absorption of reserves by the Desk. (4) Private short-term market interest rates have shown little change on balance during the intermeeting period, although bank prime rates were reduced ¼ of a percentage point to 7 per cent at most banks (and to 6¾ per cent at one major bank). Treasury bill rates also showed little net change over most of the intermeeting period, but during the past several days have posted net declines of 12-25 basis points from the levels prevailing at the time of the last FOMC meeting. The 3-month bill has traded most recently at around 4.95 per cent. The recent downturn in bill yields reflects market adjustments to the prospective seasonal shrinkage in bill supply over the latter half of June. (5) In bond markets, yields showed little change during late May, despite the continued heavy volume of corporate financing and the general erosion of confidence in municipal issues stemming from the problems of New York City. Since then, bond yields have dropped considerably, with the decline especially sharp in the corporate bond market. This rally appears to have reflected the more moderate volume of Treasury financing in prospect through July, the growing conviction in market circles that long-term rates may decline for some months ahead, and most recently the respite for New York City arising from creation of the Municipal Assistance Corporation. (6) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financing flows over various time periods. Appendix table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a lastmonth-of-quarter basis. Calendar Year 1974 Total reserves Nonborrowed reserves 8.6 Past Twelve Months May '75 over May '74 .9 Past Six Months May '75 over Nov.'74 Past Three Past Month Months May '75 May '75 over over Feb.'75 Apr.'75 -2.7 -3.9 -14.5 10.8 9.0 4.3 -3.0 -13.0 8.9 2.0 -2.5 -4.3 -10.3 4.8 4.4 4.4 8.9 11.3 7.2 7.7 8.4 11.0 13.3 6.8 8.5 10.8 13.7 14.9 M4 (M2 plus CD's) 10.7 7.9 7.4 5.9 6.8 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.0 8.6 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.2 5.4 4.1 4.5 2.6 9.2 3.7 1.6 4.3 3.8 2.2 .6 -- -2.2 -2.9 .4 .2 -.1 -.4 -1.3 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Concepts of Money M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M2 (Ml plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government, 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (7) Alternative longer-run growth rates for the monetary aggregates covering the 12-month period from June 1975 to June 1976 are summarized in the table below for Committee consideration. Alternative B encompasses generally the same growth rates that had been adopted by the Committee for the March '75--March '76 period at its April meeting. The M 1 growth range--at 5 to 7½ per cent--is exactly the same, but minor downward adjustments have been made to growth ranges for other monetary and credit aggregates. These adjustments take account of changing relationships among the aggregates based on the up-dated longer-run time period and re-assessment of the economic and financial outlook. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 6-84 5-7½ 4-6½ M2 9-11 8-10 7-9 M3 10-12 9-11 8-10 5½-8½ 4½-7 Bank credit proxy (8) 6-9 The longer-run path for M1 in alternative B does imply a somewhat more rapid rate of growth from March '75 to March '76 than contemplated by the mid-point of the 5-7½ per cent range adopted by the Committee at its previous meetings. This is because M1 growth in the second quarter seems likely to be at about a 9 per cent annual rate, as compared with the around 7 per cent rate earlier contemplated. The growth rate from March '75 to March '76 implicit in the currently proposed alternative B is around 7 per cent (based on mid-points). of course, within the adopted range, though toward the upper end. This is, -6(9) Shorter-run alternative operating guides for policy are tabulated below, with an indication of the most likely 6-month monetary growth rates that would be associated with each alternative. More detailed figures on the aggregates are presented in the table on pp. 6a and 6b. And alternative operating guides expressed in terms of nonborrowed reserves, as well as other related reserve measures, are shown in appendix table IV. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges of tolerance for June-July M1 8-10 7 -9k M2 10t-12 1014-12 6k-8k 6 -8k 5%-7% 4;-5% 5 -6k 6-7 RPD Federal funds rate (intermeeting range) 7-9 9-11% Memorandum item: 6-month growth rates (June '75-Dec. '75) M1 8k 7k 6k M2 10l 9% 9 (10) As an operating guide for the intermeeting period under alternative B, the short-run specifications include a rise in the Federal funds rate to a range centered on 6 per cent. Given the substantial 12½ per cent annual rate of increase in nominal GNP projected for the second half of calendar 1975, this alternative assumes that a tightening up on bank reserve and money market conditions over the near-term would 6a Alternative Longer-Run Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 1975 1976 M2 M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C hay 289.8 289.8 289.8 637.4 637.4 637.4 1029.7 1029.7 1029.7 June July 292.5 294.2 292.4 294.0 292.3 293.8 644.4 649.8 644.2 649.1 644.1 648.8 1042.7 1053.5 1042.5 1052.8 1042.4 1052.1 Sept. 298.7 297.8 296.9 662.0 660.4 658.7 1075.1 1072.6 1070.0 Dec. 304.5 302.9 301.3 678.7 675.9 673.0 1104.1 1099.0 1093.8 March 309.4 306.7 304.0 693.6 689.0 684.8 1130.4 1122.0 1114.0 June 313.9 310.7 307.5 707.5 701.8 696.3 1154.9 1143.9 1133.1 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.7 12.4 10.8 11.5 9.8 10.6 8.9 1975 0111O QIV 8.5 7.8 7.4 6.9 6.3 5.9 10.9 10.1 1976 QI 6.4 5.0 3.6 8.8 7.8 7.0 9.5 8.4 7.4 OIl 5.8 5.2 4.6 8.0 7.4 6.7 8.7 7.8 6.9 June '75-Dec. '75 8.2 7.2 6.2 10.6 9.8 9.0 11.8 10.8 9.9 Dec. '76 6.2 5.2 4.1 8.5 7.7 6.9 9.2 8.2 7.2 11.2 7.0 10.8 6.6 10.4 6.2 13.2 10.1 12.8 9.5 12.6 8.8 15.2 12.4 14.9 11.9 14.8 11.2 1975 '75-June June July 6b Longer-Run Alternative Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) M5 M4 Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C May June July 722.9 727.9 733.0 722.9 727.7 732.6 722.9 727.6 732.2 1115.2 1126.2 1136.7 1115.2 1126.0 1136.1 1115.2 1125.9 1135.5 501.3 504.6 506.4 501.3 504.6 506.0 501.3 504.6 505.6 Sept. 745.4 744.0 742.5 1158.5 1156.2 1153.8 513.0 512.0 511.0 Dec. 762.9 760.5 758.0 1188.3 1183.6 1178.6 523.0 521.4 519.8 1976 March June 779.1 794.9 775.1 789.9 771.6 785.1 1215.9 1242.3 1208.1 1232.0 1200.8 1221.9 531.9 542.3 529.3 539.2 526.7 536.1 1975 QIII QIV 9.6 9.4 9.0 8.9 8.2 8.4 11.5 10.3 10.7 9.5 9.9 8.7 6.7 7.8 5.9 7.3 5.1 6.9 1976 QI QII 8.5 8.1 7.7 7.6 7.2 7.0 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.8 7.8 6.1 7.5 5.3 7.1 '75 9.6 9.0 8.3 9.4 7.3 6.7 6.0 Dec. '75-June '76 8.4 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.4 6.8 6.3 1975 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.9 4.3 7.9 3.3 7.9 2.4 1975 June '75-Dec. June July 9.3 8.7 11.0 9.1 11.8 11.2 10.2 8.2 11.6 11.5 10.8 10.2 be necessary if growth in the monetary aggregates is to be constrained in an environment of rising incomes and transactions demands. Even if the funds rate rises in the weeks ahead to around 6 per cent, staff projections are that M 1 growth over the second half of this year is likely to be on the order of 7 per cent, annual rate, assuming no further increases in the funds rate until late in the period. (11) The relationship between alternative short-run operating targets and longer-run objectives for the monetary aggregates is, of course, a relatively loose one. Maintenance over the weeks immediately ahead of prevailing money market conditions (as shown for the short-run specifications of alternative A) would probably not be inconsistent with the longer-run objectives of alternative B, but such an approach would appear to entail the need for a more substantial constraint on monetary growth later on, and hence a larger rise in the Federal funds rate later in the summer. We have, therefore, assumed that maintenance of pre- vailing money market conditions over the short-run would be more consistent with adoption by the Committee of higher longer-run growth objectives for the monetary aggregates, as shown under alternative A. (12) Given prevailing money market conditions, M1 growth over the June-July period is expected to be in an 8-10 per cent annual rate range. Growth is expected to slow from the very rapid pace of May and the first part of June as the effect of Treasury disbursement of tax rebates wears off. However, disbursement of the $1.7 billion of one- time payments to social security recipients in the second half of June, as noted earlier, will tend to sustain private deposits. Thus, any significant slowdown in M 1 growth probably will be delayed until July. Tightening of the money market over the intermeeting period, as contemplated under alternative B, would work to lower these growth rates slightly, but most of the effect of higher interest rates on the monetary aggregates would develop later on. (13) Over the next four weeks credit markets are not expected to be subject to significant, additional demand pressures. In fact, between now and mid-year the Treasury will repay a modest amount of debt, on balance. However, the Treasury will need to raise new cash again in early July, with the bulk of this financing probably taking the form of additions to bill auctions. Longer-term credit demands from corporations and state and local governments may remain quite large, but private short-term credit demands will probably continue quite weak for some while as businesses continue to liquidate inventories and utilize the proceeds of capital market issues to repay short-term debt. Thus, on the basis of demands for credit, interest rates are not likely to be under any significant upward pressure over the weeks ahead, apart from a potential seasonal rebound in bill rates after mid-year. (14) Although the pace of expansion in time deposit funds (other than large CD's) at banks and thrift institutions should diminish with the ending of tax rebate and special social security benefit payments, inflows of such funds are expected to remain generally large. Thus, expansion of M 2 and M 3 is expected to continue sizable--under alternatives A or B--over the next month or two. The continued availability of such funds will permit banks to reduce outstanding large CD's further during early summer, given weak loan demand at banks. Thrift institutions will be encouraged to continue expanding mortgage loan commitments, and mortgage interest rates could edge down somewhat further if conditions in money and capital markets remain stable. (15) A significant rise in the Federal funds rate--for example, to the 6 per cent mid-point of the alternative B range--would, however, alter market expectations and lead to upward adjustments in interest The adjustments would probably be most marked in short-term rates. rates, with the 3-month bill rate rising to perhaps 5¾-6 per cent by Adjustments in longer-term rates might be moderated by market mid-July. expectations of a continued slowing in the rate of inflation, a gradual reduction in the prospective volume of new offerings, and by the relatively substantial upward slope to the yield curve that now exists. (16) Alternative C contemplates more tightening in money market conditions over the near-term--with the funds rate range centered on 6 Such an approach appears per cent--than under alternative B. compatible with longer-run growth objectives that include holding growth in M 1 over the next year in the 4-6 as shown in the table in paragraph (7). per cent annual rate range, Under this alternative, growth in M 1 over the March '75-March '76 period would be at the mid-point of the 5-7 per cent long-run range earlier adopted by the Committee. But this alternative implies enough further tightening in the money market so that growth in the monetary aggregates would be below the bottom of the 5-7 per cent range for M 1 in the first half of 1976. -10(17) Near-term tightening in the money market of the magnitude suggested for alternative C would almost certainly lead to a fairly sharp reaction in other short-term markets and to an upward adjustment in long-term rates. It could even engender expectations of a rise in the discount rate from its current 6 per cent level. Some adverse impact on savings flows to banks and intermediaries could be expected, but shortper cent-term rates--typified perhaps by a 3-month bill rate around 6 3/2 would not be likely to rise so high as to sharply curtail such inflows. -11Proposed directive (18) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD over conditions market money prevailing the about maintain [DEL: generally aggregates monetary that provided ahead, immediately period ranges run short acceptable currently within growing be appear to tolerance]. of Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD over conditions market money prevailing the about maintain [DEL: aggregates monetary that provided ahead, immediately period run short acceptable currently within growing be to appear generally tolerance]. of ranges -12Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to ACHIEVE BANK RESERVE AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWING OF GROWTH IN MONETARY AGGREGATES OVER THE MONTHS AHEAD over conditions market money prevailing the about maintain [DEL: generally aggregates monetary that provided ahead, immediately period ranges run short acceptable currently within growing be to appear tolerance]. of CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II-FOMC 6/13/75 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -34 growth for May June -w34 4 32 I I _1 I I M A M 1975 -30 B - J l Ii i M I J 1974 I S I1 j D I I I i , M J 1975 J I S D RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios I J J CONFIDENTIAL (FR) II-FOMC CLASS 6/13/75 CHART 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY Ml BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -300 295 280 290 280 285 280 11%/% growth for ne (6/11/75) 9% growth M A M 1975 J J 6/13/75 CHART 3 MONETARY AGGREGATES CREDIT PRO XY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 520 -500 4-80 460 - \ I______________ I I RESERVES I C 0 I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 39 I - 37 TOTAL 35 NONBORROWED I- - 'V I 33 31 I I,, I I - a-" 0 1975 1974 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios 6/16/75 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS PERCENT 14 WEEKLY AVERAGES INTEREST RATES Short-term INTEREST RATES Long-term PERCENT WEEKLY AVERAGES PERCENT WEEKLY FHA MORTGAGES - 13 11 FNMA MONDAY AUCTION EURO-DOLLARS FEDERAL FUNDS 3-MONTH RATE PRIME COMMERCIAL 10 /4 PAPER 6 MONTH UTILITY SAaa NEW ISSUE F R. DISCOUNT RATE GOVT. BONDS 10 YEAR AVERAGES 8 RESERVES 9 7 MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER THURSDAYS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S-7 5 BORROWED NET BORROWED I 1 o V - 1 q 1974 1975 4I TREASURY BILLS 3 MONTH 1 1 1 1 1 1 1974 I I 1LI 1975 I I I I I I I I 1974 I I I I I I I I I 1975 1 3 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE I BANK RESERVES JUNE 13, 1975 (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) A RESERVES RESERVES AVAILABLEE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS NSA SA Period AGGREGATE RESERVES IREQUIRED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Total Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Total Required 34,925 34,764 35,003 34,581 434,771) 34,777 34,658 34,892 34,515 1349719) 34,731 34,564 34,845 34,426 (34,632) Private Demand RESERVES Other Time CD's and Gov't. and Nondeposits Interbank Deposits 1 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE 33,103 32 951 33,032 32P749 133,001) 33,096 32,694 33,098 32*605 132,740) 19,095 19,236 19,474 19,405 (19,753) 8,996 8,868 8,796 8,716 8,791) 4,815 4,643 4,602 4,471 1 4,318) 1,826 1,817 1,973 1,833 ( 1,771) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1 1975- -1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. 9.1 0.8 -4.7 0.6) ( 5.5 35.9 8.3 3.5 8.4 2.8 0.1 5.3 -8.3 ( 0.11 -1.4 0.7) -7.7 1 0.8) -4.3 10.8) -19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.0 S 7.1) -29.0 -5.8 9.8 -14.4 S7.2) -6.5 8.9 14.8 -4.3 21.5) 11.0 6.5 ( -7.6 -3.5) MONTHLY -8.6 MAR. APR. MAY JUNE -5.5 2.9 S-10.3 S 9.2) -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.5 ( 6.6) MAY-JUNE 1 ( 1975- -FEB. -0.6) -4.0) I -3.0) ( -3.7) ( S 8.6) -15.9 -17.1 -9.7 -10.9 10.3) -0.3) WEEKLY LEVELS--$MILLIONS 16 23 30 33,121 33,014 32,985 33,113 33,267 33,460 35,057 35,064 35,204 35,035 34,899 34,963 34,838 34,994 35,015 19,444 19,592 19,47C 8,827 8,764 8,759 4,628 4,585 4,566 1,939 2,052 2,220 MAY 7 14 21 28 32,914 32,601 32,635 32,739 33,209 32 421 32,370 32,415 34,915 34,437 34,603 34.314 34,881 34,420 34,481 34,230 34,604 34,438 34,532 34,153 19,342 19,367 19,411 19,433 8,729 8,734 8,697 8v717 4,529 4,500 4,455 4,428 2,003 1,838 1,969 1,575 JUNE 4 11 32,999 32,840 32,620 32,273 34,714 34.005 34,630 33,967 34,368 34,083 19,566 19,816 8,681 8,775 4,406 4,328 1,716 1,164 1975--APR. NOTE: RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MAY 20, 1975 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD DATA SHOWN IN PARANTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. RANGE OF 1.50 TO 4.00 PERCENT FOR THE MAY-JUNE PERIOD. Table 2 CONFIDENTIAL (F.R) MONETARY AGGREGATES CLASS II-FOMC JUNE 13, 1975 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONEY SUPPLY Narrow Broad (M1) (M2) Period 1 MONTHLY Adjusted Credit Proxy U.S. Govt. Deposits 3 4 2 TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS Other CD's Than CD's Total 5 6 Nondeposit Sources of Funds 7 8 LEVELS-SBILLIONS 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE 283.5 286.1 267.1 289.8 620.3 626.4 630.4 637.4 (644.4) (292.5) 495.7 498.1 500.2 501.3 (504.5) ( 0.6 0.7 2.1 2.1 3.1) 428.9 430.0 431.7 433.1 (435.3) 336.8 340.3 343.3 347.6 (351.8) 92.1 89.8 88.4 85.5 ( 83.5) ( 6.5 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.4) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1974--3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1.0 5.3 4.2 6.7 6.7 4.2 9.1 11.7 7.1 7.9 1975--1ST QTR. 2ND OTR. 2.4 8.9 8.4 11.5 3.1 5.1 10.1 4.9 13.6 13.5 -2.2 -28.1 ( 5.5 11.0 4.2 11.3 11.2) ( 9.4 11.8 7.7 13.3 13.2) ( -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.6 7.7) -7.8 -30.0 -18.7 -39.4 -28.1) ( 11.3) ( 13.3) ( 5.2) 17.2 25.9 MONTHLY 1975--FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE MAY-JUNE WEEKLY ( 8.2 3.1 4.7 3.9 6.1) ( 12.6 12.5 10.6 15.0 14.5) ( 5.0) ( 14.9) ( -33.3) LEVELS-$BILLIONS 1975--APR. 16 23 30 287.1 286.3 286.5 630.4 629.8 630.9 501.2 498.6 498.6 3.0 1.4 1.9 431.8 431.4 431.6 343.3 343.5 344.4 88.6 87.9 87.2 6.6 7.2 6.9 MAY 7 14 21 28 288.0 289.0 289.9 292.1 633.2 636.0 637.7 641.5 499.3 499.5 502.6 502.9 2.0 1.4 2.5 2.5 431.6 433.3 433.7 433.8 345.1 347.0 347.8 349.4 86.4 86.3 85.9 84.4 7.0 7.0 7.8 7.9 JUNE 4 11 292.1 293.0 642.9 643.8 505.3 507.0 3.6 6.0 434.5 434.5 350.8 350.8 83.8 83.7 7.5 7.4 P PE I 1_________ NOTE: DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC JUNE 13, 1975 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECT OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) Bills & Accept. (1) pen Market Operations 1 T's Agency Coupon Net 3/ Total Issues Issues (5) (4) (3) (2) Daily Average Reserve Effects 2/ Other 4 Open Market A Member Factors Operations Bank Borrowing (8) (7) (6) A in reserve categories available res._5/ Req. res. against U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (10) (9) a Target available reserves 5/ (11) Monthly 2,739 393 327 2,963 -507 -583 201 -2,395 -183 66 204 -81 395 450 -636 -1,241 53 -313 -243 -41 1,548 -499 -773 258 -344 -13 341 -1,627 -766 965 -670 -495 2,229 510 4 -50 -1,767 -1,193 54 6 414 -739 495 -170 215 -104 868 163 108 -21 -11 1,613 23 -90 111 -334 521 1974--Nov. Dec. 1,217 729 212 280 331 360 981 -976 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. -1,102 -1,015 112 406 316 1,301 -14 295 207 1,097 714 -1,758 Apr. May June 1,319 197 1,070 50 -2 -97 5,442 -3,357 7,829 -3,207 -282 373 208 -2,371 -2,072 -493 - -1,906 3,750 -2,575 4,1611 -2,016 620 3871 309 -136 July Weekly 1975--Apr. 2 9 16 May June - -669 411r 23 30 317 1,231 539 530 -- -324 4,189 532 5,950 2,383 4,097 144 76 -2,481 -3,927 -200 53 246 193 7 14 274 425 -50 -27 -- -2,827 -698 -2,580 -223 966 -905 -207 -17 -1,017 202 -6 70 -252 -790 21 244 - 4,175 -1,075 28 -91 -- -71 4 -724 -- -6 11 -582 -- -- - 1,155 105 -1,262 -522 -38 -4,652 -5,383 -1,364 -3,571 -4,153 -4,745 3,932 -1,101 70p -1,033p -2 3,866 253 -68p -472p -18p 126p -2,523p -531p -346p 18 25 1/ Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill auctions. 2/ Represents change in daily average level for preceding period. 3/ Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. F.R. accounts. 4/ Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other 5/Reserves to support private nonbank deposits. Target change for May and June reflects the target adopted at the May 20, 1975 FOMC meeting. Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. p--preliminary. * Special certificate (Direct Treasury borrowing from F.R.) ** Reflects special certificate purchase. CONFIDENTIAL(FR) CLASS II--FOMC JUNE 13, 1975 TABLE 4 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Period Net Purchases 3/ Within 1-year Over 10 Net Change Outright Holdings Total Total 4/ Federal Agencies Treasury Coupons Treasury Bills Net Purchases 2/ Net Purchases 3/ RP's Net 5/ 1-5 5 - 10 Over 10 87 207 320 789 579 797 539 500 434 167 129 196 1,582 1,415 1,747 46 120 439 592 400 1,665 253 244 659 168 101 318 1,059 864 3,082 1,631 9,273 6,303 -1,358 46 - 154 497 874 945 43 9 160 49 102 232 232 118 215 133 109 62 131 25 54 73 45 399 555 302 492 -106 195 138 138 430 726 371 135 229 165 130 45 103 117 53 318 870 1,203 691 88 2,188 2,620 1,402 1,431 - 358 - 986 - 238 1975--Qtr. I -2,093 33 795 625 312 1,765 69 169 285 61 584 508 53 1975--Jan. -1,205 14 305 61 26 406 710 1,097 Feb. Mar. -1,003 115 -19 129 361 113 451 74 212 316 1,043 - 404 1,620 714 -1,758 485 274 164 1,070 -- - -- -- - 41 73 114 - -- --- 1972 1973 1974 - 490 7,232 1,280 1974--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III Qtr. IV - Apr. 1,295r May Apr. May June 148 143 50 2 - 293 -- 9 16 - 642 416r -- - 23 30 311 1,192 108 40 7 14 21 28 265 396 236 -95 50 - 4 11 -704 -560 -- Total Within 1-year -- -- 1 - 5 -- -- -- -- 121 166 19 42 376 210 -- - 2 -- - -- -- 69 -- 167 2 ---- - 5 - 10 2 164 -2 - 2,387r -- 42 150 208 5,442 -3,357 300 -2,371 -- -- -- -- - 669 -1,906 -- --- -- --- 856 1,761 - 324 4,189 ---- --- - -- 247 476 244 - 162 -2,827 698 3,932 -1,101 410r 3,750 209 276 168 106 55 109 --- --- ---- -- - -- - - -- - -- - -731 -4,652 - -- - -- -- -- - -- - - -3,571 539 530 -50 -- ---- 582 18 25 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions with market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects: changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 5/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC JUNE 13, 1975 TABLE 5 TABLE 5 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Member Bank Reserve Positions Dealer Positions Corporate Bonds Municipal Bonds (4) Excess** Reserves Borrowing at FRB* Total Seasonal (6) Basic Reserve Deficit 8 New York 38 Others (9) (8) -12,826 -7,870 - 6,046 -2,447 Period Bills (1) 1974--High Low 3,678 -289 2,203 -309 384 27 3,906 647 1975--High Low 5,013 1,586 2,845 532 389 48 609 18 -7,387 -1,757 -11,636 - 8,070 1974--May June 408 580 85 9 83 124 2,590 3,020 -3,171 -4,445 - 9,091 - 9,920 July Aug. Sept. 457 1,758 2,309 -214 398 552 79 108 85 3,075 3,337 3,282 -3,522 -4,231 -4,235 - 9,555 - 9,224 - 8,250 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,174 2,900 2,985 654 1,608 1,836 25 83 175 166 268 149 1,813 1,252 727 -4,602 -6,322 -5,960 - 8,689 - 9,715 -10,169 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 2,501 3,329 3,143 2,050 2,121 2,521 97 144 307 79 166 195 -5,378 -6,318 -5,732 - 9,744 - 9,533 -10,302 2,737 *4,744 1,617 *1,752 35 91 115 170 -4,079 -4,130p -10,426 - 9,633p 2 9 16 23 30 3,287 3,138 2,772 2,296 2,291 2,501 2,336 1,862 1,286 601 47 13 26 55 0 154 92 91 122 109 -4,643 -5,716 -5,025 -3,590 -1,757 - 9,617 -11,390 -11,326 -10,893 - 8 070 May 7 14 21 28 4,129 4,470 *4,728 *4,658 532 2,144 *2,352 *2,109 80 55 144 85 130 190 256 166 -2,601 -4,743 -4,093 -3,990 - 9,175 - 9,562 -10,198 - 9,302 June 4 11 18 25 *4,634 *5,013 *1,445 *1,163 175 60p -4,738p -6,468p - 9,136 p -11,636p Apr. May 1975-Apr. NOTE: Coupon Issues (2) 4 12p Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserves less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) JUNE 13, 1975 TABLE 6 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (Per Cent) Long-Term U.S. Government (10-yr. Constant Maturity) (10) 8.14 6.93 1974--High Low 13.55 8.45 Short-Term 90-119 Day Treasury Bills Commercial 1-year Paper 90-day (2) (4) 9.63 12.25 6.53 7.88 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 7.02 5.10 9.34 5.38 9.00 5.25 9.00 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.09 6.27 8.28 7.27 9.47 8.78 1974--May June 11.31 11.93 8.23 7.90 10.82 10.83 11.06 10.90 9.24 9.38 9.13 9.40 6.02 6.13 7.58 7.54 9.41 July Aug. Sept. 12.92 12.01 11.34 7.55 8.96 8.06 11.93 11.79 11.83 11.69 11.19 11.83 11.38 10.20 10.07 10.38 10.04 10.19 10.30 6.68 6.69 6.76 7.81 8.04 8.04 9.84 10.25 10.58 Oct. Nov. Dec. 10.06 9.45 8.53 7.46 7.47 9.55 9.35 8.78 9.00 9.33 8.72 8.84 10.16 9.21 9.53 10.23 9.34 9.56 6.57 6.61 7.05 7.90 7.68 7.43* 10.22 9.87 7.15 8.95 9.18 1975--Jan. Feb. Mar. 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.26 5.50 5.49 7.39 6.36 6.06 7.43 6.00 5.88 7.45 6.25 6.03 9.36 8.97 9.35 9.45 9.09 9.38 6.82 6.39 6.74 7.50* 7.39* 7.73 9.25 Apr. May 5.49 5.22 5.61 5.23 6.11 5.70 5.85 6.03 5.63 9.67 9.63 9.66 9.65 6.94 6.97 8.23 8.06 9.06 5.44 2 9 16 23 30 5.59 5.28 5.44 5.54 5.71 5.58 5.74 5.52 5.57 5.60 6.03 6.10 6.18 6.13 6.08 5.75 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 6.13 6.13 6.00 6.00 9.80 9.65 6.93 7.03 6.86 6.97 6.95 8.12 9.66 9.80 9.70 9.60 9.55 9.71 9.69 8.28 8.28 9.13 7 14 21 28 5.42 5.20 5.13 5.41 5.75 5.50 5.22 5.25 5.88 5.75 5.50 5.40 9.65 9.54 9.61 9.62 9.60 9.61 9.66 9.70 6.86 6.88 7.09 7.09 8.09 8.04 8.00 8.06 9.29 5.14 5.98 5.90 5.60 5.38 4 11 18 25 5.24 5.15 5.23 5.12 5.43 5.55 5.25 5.25 5.40 5.38 9.41r 8.92p 9.53r 9.24p 7.05 6.80 7.97 7.78p 9.14 Federal funds Period Apr. May June (1) Daily--June 5 12 11.18 11.36 5.18 5.10 5.17 5 19 . p CD's New Issue-NYC 60-89 Day 190-119 Day (5) (6) 12.25 12.00 8.00 7.88 10.88 11.91 5.25 9.51 Municipal Bond Buyer (9) 7.15 5.16 8.21 FMMA Auctions Yields (11) 10.59 8.43 9.54 9.53 8.93 8.82 9.27 8.98 8.19 9.25 7.97 n.a. 5.50 5.50 I- Aaa Utility Recently New Offered Issue (7) (8) 10.61 10.52 8.14 8.05 - ________.-- Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For columns 7,8, and 10 the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the and of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceeding the end of the statement week. The FN MA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. Data have been revised back through December 1974 and * The Treasury has revised its procedure for computing the constant maturity yields. result in an average increase of about 8 basis points in the level of the 10-year yield. p- preliminary. NOTE: APPENDIX TABLE 1-A JUNE MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES Period Non- Total oo borrowed 1 2 10.8 7.8 8.6 1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 Available Total to Adj Loans Support PVt. Credit proxy and Invest- M M M M M6 M7 3 6 7 4 5 (Per cent annual rates of growth 8 9 10 11 12 7.5 7.2 10.8 10.1 9.2 8.9 11.3 10.4 10.2 14.6 13.5 9.2 8.7 6.1 4.8 11.1 8.8 7.2 13.2 8.8 6.8 12.5 11.6 10.7 12.9 11.2 9.1 12.9 11.9 9.2 6.4 8.9 1.2 13.2 9.8 8.2 13.5 6.8 16.6 9.6 7.4 4.7 9.1 8.3 9.7 7.6 14.2 8.5 13.4 8.4 13.1 10.0 11.0 5.9 0.5 21.0 12.6 4.9 14.5 5.4 15.1 3.0 6.3 3.1 8.7 5.5 7.9 5.4 13.3 7.5 10.9 7.0 11.2 6.9 1.3 8.3 3.5 1.1 -0.1 5.5 35.9 5.6 19.1 9.1 0.8 8.2 20.4 6.7 4.2 17.5 12.1 7.3 -1.1 5.5 7.0 1.0 5.3 9.3 7.9 4.2 6.7 8.9 6.8 3.8 6.9 10.9 15.3 5.8 9.1 9.8 11.8 5.6 8.3 10.3 11.8 6.4 7.2 -8.3 -1.4 -4.7 3.1 4.4 2.4 8.4 10.4 7.0 8.5 8.0 21.8 7.6 21.6 -9.1 21.5 15.7 8.6 10.8 7.8 -1.5 -2.7 6.5 16.9 13.6 9.2 12.1 5.8 17.6 11.1 4.5 11.2 5.0 4.6 3.0 8.4 7.9 3.7 3.7 9.0 4.9 3.6 1.4 5.0 -9.6 4.3 10.4 1.7 0.4 0.9 3.8 8.5 3.4 5.9 12.5 14.7 8.5 4.4 4.4 9.8 5.7 11.5 8.7 11.2 7.9 4.2 4.5 8.8 5.9 10.0 8.8 11.2 8.6 5.4 5.3 8.4 4.7 8.3 3.6 2.8 6.7 2.4 3.8 -9.3 5.5 11.0 4.2 11.3 3.9 9.4 11.8 7.7 13.3 6.5 10.5 14.0 11.8 14.9 7.7 6.9 6.2 4.5 6.8 9.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 13.9 8.4 7.5 7.9 8.2 12.5 ANNUALLY: M1 ments Deposits 1972 1973 1974 1975 MONEY STOCK MEASURES BANK CREDIT MEASURES RESERVES 13, SEMI-ANNUALLY: QUARTERLY: 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QTR. QTR. OTR. OTR. 1974 1974 1974 1974 1ST QTR. 1975 20.5 MONTHLY: 1974--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P 7.0 -3.1 -1.7 15.6 -7.6 12.5 -5.6 9.7 51.8 18.4 34.8 7.9 -27.3 -5.5 8.3 -14.5 19.4 -19.1 -4.1 8.1 -13.0 -3.9 - NOTES: IIII-- 0.0 -8.6 -5.5 2.9 -10.3 6.4 4.2 -0.2 5.2 7.6 -6.9 3.6 -0.2 5.8 5.1 2.6 - - 2.9 7.1 7.7 I__. I RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREME P - PRELIMINARY. 16, 1969, I_ I_ AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED -_ JUNE 13, APPENDIX TABLE 1-B 1975 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RESERVES 1/ RESERVESMEASURES Period To t a Non l borrowed Available to Support Pt. Adi Credit proxy Deposits 1 2 3 MONEY STOCK BANK CREDIT Total Loans and Invest- MEASURES M M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 9 10 11 12 ments 4 5 6 ANNUALLY: 1972 1973 30,330 32,689 29,281 31,391 28,039 30,610 406.4 448.7 559.0 634.6 255.8 271.5 525.7 572.2 844.9 919.6 569.7 636.0 888.8 983.4 985.5 1095.4 1013.1 1133.6 MONTHLY: 1974--MAR. 32,795 31,481 31,054 457.9 662.4 275.2 585.5 940.0 653.4 1007.9 1122.1 1162.8 APR. MAY. JUNE 33,652 34,263 34,479 31,916 31,673 31,473 31,551 32,115 32,536 469.2 475.8 481.2 672.3 679.1 682.9 276.6 277.6 280.0 589.4 591.6 597.1 945.9 948.8 955.9 663.3 670.2 678.4 1019.8 1027.3 1037.2 1136.3 1144.5 1155.2 1177.5 1186.1 1197.2 JULY AUG. SEPT. 35,101 34,988 35,191 31,800 31,652 31,909 32,770 33,064 33,278 484.9 487.5 489.2 692.9 699.2 695.2 280.4 280.5 280.7 599.6 601.9 603.4 959.8 962.7 965.0 683.2 685.7 688.2 1043.4 1046.4 1049.9 1162.8 1166.9 1171.3 1205.8 1211.2 1216.5 OCT. NOV. DEC. 35,099 35,048 35,503 33,286 33,795 34,776 33.236 33,160 33,341 488.3 491.2 494.3 696.0 697.4 691.8 281.6 283.6 284.4 607.6 611.6 613.5 970.7 976.9 981.7 693.8 697.1 703.8 1056.9 1062.4 1072.0 1179.9 1185.7 1195.6 1225.0 1229.8 1238.3 35,737 34,925 34,764 35,339 34,777 34,658 33,341 33,103 32,951 495.8 495.7 498.1 693.9 695.5 699.4 282.2 283.5 286.1 615.5 620.3 626.4 987.0 995.6 1007.2 708.3 712.4 716.1 1079.8 1087.6 1096.9 1205.2 1213.0 1221.1 1247.0 1254.8 1263.1 35,003 34,581 34,892 34,515 33,032 32,749 500.2 501.3 700.8 703.0 287.1 289.8 630.4 637.4 1017.1 1029.7 718.8 722.9 1105.5 1115.2 1229.4 1243.6 1271.7 1285.0 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P WEEKLY: 1975--APR. 9 16 23 30 34,710 35,057 35,064 35,204 34,680 35,035 34,899 34,963 32,994 33,121 33,014 32,985 501.5 501.2 498.6 498.6 287.3 287.1 286.3 286.5 629.9 630.4 629.8 630.9 719.3 719.0 717.7 718.2 MAY 7 14 21 28f 34,915 34,437 34,603 34,314 34,881 34,420 34,230 32,914 32,601 32,635 32,739 499.3 499.5 502.6 502.9 288.0 289.0 289.9 292.1 633.2 636.0 637.7 641.5 719.6 722.3 723.5 725.9 34,714 34,630 32,999 505.3 292.1 642.9 726.7 JUNE 4F 34,481 - NOTES: RESERVE REQUIREMENTS ON EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 1969, AND REQUIREMENTS ON BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING OCTOBER 1, 1970. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY. June 13, 1975 APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Period Period Demand ICurrency CurrencyDeposits Timetl DTotal Deposits Time Othernr Than CD's _ ______________ Credit on Union Shares CD's CDs Savings Bonds ANNUALLY: Short Term Commercial paper S. Gov't Commercial UeTerm Securities Securities v 7 6 5 4 (Per cent annual rates of growth) 3 2 1 Mutual Savings aBankk L and S & L Sharesjl 9 8 10 1972 8.2 8. 15.7 13 16.7 18.0 31.0 6.1 0.5 15.0 1973 8.3 5.5 13.9 11*8 30.9 16.5 38.8 11.5 3.1 8.5 5.6 5.1 4.8 10.2 11.4 9.4 45.3 41.5 1974 16.2 15.1 1ST HALF 1973 2ND HALF 1973 8.4 7.8 7.1 3.8 19.8 11.4 10.6 116 10,.4 3 1.6 94 .61 106 64 41 18.6 10.5 10.9 7.6 5.9 5.1 13.8 9.1 54.9 221 4.3 52 19.8 9.7 10.2 5. 1.0 17.7 1ST HALF 1974 2ND HALF 1974 14.1 2.9 1ST QTR. 1974 11.0 3.8 15.1 12.8 7.9 13.0 26.3 4.0 12.3 25.1 1974 8.2 6.0 6.6 21.3 8.8 3.9 17.2 25 9 4.6 22.3 7.1 29.5 -27 .1 7.9 6.9 126.10 78.2 3.1 14.2 12.0 25.9 9.2 18.9 -2.2 6.4 -2.0 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 0 300 20 5. QUARTERLYI 2ND OTR. 1974 OTR. 1974 3RD QTR. 3RD 4TH QTR. 1974 0 12.1 -1.1 -1.1 3.2 * 9.1 11.7 8. 8.8 13.8 -2.1 -6.6 13.1 18.0 5.0 1.5 9.3 74.7 3.9 10.8 11.8 4.3 18.5 42.8 3.9 10.7 14.4 18.0 1.1 -3.3 13.3 .1 7.9 8.6 4.7 1.8 9.1 0.0 33.9 2.9 5.9 3.9 25.4 18.7 22.8 39.2 7.3 10.9 -1.1 2.2 6.8 13.5 4.5 11.9 2.9 4.3 9.1 9.0 14.3 19.8 5.8 8 4.4 -9.7 -29.3 5.6 13.4 -2.0 16.2 7.1 3.9 28.3 28.3 7.7 9.2 13.2 67.4 -35.5 4.0 0.0 16.8 5.8 1.7 12.3 9.9 17.5 31.9 31.6 -25.3 -13.9 18.9 7.6 3 10.6 12.2 3.9 10.6 8.2 3.1 12.6 12.5 11.5 17.6 17.2 21.2 -7.8 -30.0 5.7 5.7 -7.7 -29.1 39 1.0 17.1 10.1 7.5 2.8 JUNE 5.6 11.8 JULY AUG. 3.7 3.0 SEPT. OCT. NOV. 1975 . 19.0 8 13.6 0.2 1ST QTR. . 5.2 52 9.4 MONTHLY: 1974--MA DEC. 8 1975--JAN. FEB. PAR. APR. MAY P NOTES: 1. 12.1 5.0 1.0 4.7 10.6 184 20.8 1.4 -18.7 -39.4 t_ rnnrg .w- .j nNo, -t 1_ 116, BY AVA OCTOBER DERIVED -LVS ON S EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS ARE INCLUDEDBEGINNING 1 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS OCTOBER 1, 1970. 5.6 3.7 t0 1969, -9.9 84.1 8.7 -2.7 -2. 0.0 5.7 8.6 -25.5 ANn BROIulfRMENTS 0 4 BANK-REL TED ENDOF BANKE-RELATED ONTHONAND CURENT O REQUIREMENTS AND COMMERCIAL PAPER ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING MONTH AND END OF AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGNG END OF CURRENT 1/ GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. p - PRELIMINARY. JUNE 13, 1975 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time Period Currency Demand m 1 2 2 Other Time Total oDeposits Cs Deposits 3 4 4 3 Mutual Savings Bank and S & L Shares, Share 5 5 Credit Union Shares 6 6 Short I CD's 7 Commercial Term Savings Te SBnds . t o m er B 1 Securlties cur'tes Paper ' 8 9 10 8 9 10 I Nondepot Funds US Gov't Demand 11 11 12 12 ANNUALLY: 56.9 61.6 198.9 209.9 313.8 364.5 269.9 300.7 297.5 322.8 21.6 24.6 43.9 63.8 57.0 59.9 39.8 52.1 27.6 38.3 4.3 6.6 1974--MAR. 63.3 211.9 378.3 310.3 329.2 25.4 68.0 60.5 53.7 40.7 7.5 APR. MAY JUNE 63.9 64.3 64.6 212.8 213.3 215.4 386.7 392.5 398.4 312.7 314.0 317.1 330.8 331.2 332.4 25.7 25.9 26.3 73.9 78.5 81.3 60.8 61.0 61.2 55.7 56.2 56.7 41.3 41.6 42.1 8.1 8.8 8.4 JULY AUG. SEPT. 64.8 65.5 65.9 215.6 215.0 214.8 402.8 405.2 407.5 319.2 321.5 322.7 333.7 334.2 335.0 26.5 26.5 26.7 83.6 83.8 84.8 61.5 61.7 62.0 57.9 58.8 59.4 42.9 44.3 45.2 9.2 9.0 8.6 OCT. NOV. DEC. 66.5 67.4 67.9 215.2 216.2 216.5 412.1 413.6 419.4 325.9 328.0 32Q.1 336.2 338.2 340.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 86.2 85.5 90.3 62.3 62.5 62.8 60.8 60.7 60.7 45.1 44.0 42.7 7.9 7.6 8.4 68.2 68.8 69.5 214.0 214.7 216.6 426.0 428.9 430.0 333.3 336.8 340.3 343.6 346.9 352.0 27.9 28.3 28.8 92.7 92.1 89.8 63.2 63.5 63.8 62.3 61.9 60.4 41.8 41.8 42.0 7.6 6.5 6.5 69.6 70.3 217.5 219.5 431.7 433.1 343.3 347.6 357.4 362.5 29.3 29.7 88.4 85.5 64.1 64.3 59.9 64.1 42.3 41.4 6.7 7.4 9 16 23 30 69.5 69.5 69.7 69.8 217.8 217.6 216.6 216.8 432.0 431.8 431.4 431.6 342.6 343.3 343.5 344.4 89.4 88.6 87.9 87.2 6.3 6.6 7.2 6.9 MAY 7 14 21 28P 69.8 70.2 70.5 70.8 218.2 218.6 219.4 221.3 431.6 433.3 433.7 433.8 345.1 347.0 347.8 349.4 86.4 86.3 85.9 84.4 7.0 7.0 7.8 7.9 JUNE 4P 70.6 221.6 434.5 350.8 83.8 7.5 1972 1973 MONTHLY: 1975--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY P WEEKLY: 1975--APR. LOANS SOLD TO BANKADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, MONTHLY WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS. RELATED INSTITUTIONS, WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, M5, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUDATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. TION DEPOSITS. ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY NOTES: 1/ P - Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) (Revised Series) M 1975 Q M Q M Q 8.8 10.4 8.6 10.5 9.1 5.6 7.8 5.2 7.5 8.7 10.8 8.9 9.8 7.9 I 5.5 9.3 9.6 8.9 9.1 II 7.0 7.9 8.3 6.8 7.6 III 1.0 4.2 6.0 3.8 5.2 IV 5.3 6.7 6.2 6.9 5.8 1973 1974 M3 M2 M 3.4 7.3 11.3 10.6 0.6 9.1 2.4 1.0 8.4 6.4 10.4 8.3 8.9 8.3 11.5 10.8 14.0 13.3 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in of the quarters. all three months Appendix Table IV SHORT-RUN OPERATING GUIDES* Total Reserves Alt. A Alt. B Alt. Nonborrowed Reserves C RPD Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1975 May June July 34,581 34,794 35,089 34,581 34,781 35,038 34,581 34,768 34,987 34,515 34,724 35,009 34,515 34,704 34,901 34,515 34,684 34,793 32,593 32,862 33,013 32,593 32,859 32,988 32,593 32,85F 32,963 1975 June July 7.4 10.2 6.9 8.9 6.5 7.5 7.3 9.8 6.6 6.8 5.9 3.8 9.9 5.5 9.8 4.7 9.7 3.9 8.8 7.9 7.0 8.6 6.7 4.8 7.7 7.3 6.8 June-July Excess Reserves Alt. A 1975 May * Alt. B Alt. C Borrowings Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 156 156 156 66 66 66 June 155 145 135 70 75 85 July 200 175 150 80 135 Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements. 195
@FedFRASER