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January 29-30, 2008 Material -- Accessible Version SEP: Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections (PDF) Authorized for Public Release Table 1 Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents 1 2008 2009 2010 Real GDP Growth 1.3 to 2.0 2.1 to 2.7 2.5 to 3.0 October projections 1.8 to 2.5 2.3 to 2.7 2.5 to 2.6 Unemployment Rate 5.2 to 5.3 5.0 to 5.3 4.9 to 5.1 October projections 4.8 to 4.9 4.8 to 4.9 4.7 to 4.9 PCE Inflation 2.1 to 2.4 1.7 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 October projections 1.8 to 2.1 1.7 to 2.0 1.6 to 1.9 Core PCE Inflation 2.0 to 2.2 1.7 to 2.0 1.7 to 1.9 October projections 1.7 to 1.9 1.7 to 1.9 1.6 to 1.9 Real GDP Growth 1.0 to 2.2 1.8 to 3.2 2.2 to 3.2 October projections 1.6 to 2.6 2.0 to 2.8 2.2 to 2.7 Unemployment Rate 5.0 to 5.5 4.9 to 5.7 4.7 to 5.4 October projections 4.6 to 5.0 4.6 to 5.0 4.6 to 5.0 PCE Inflation 2.0 to 2.8 1.7 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.0 October projections 1.7 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.2 1.5 to 2.0 Core PCE Inflation 1.9 to 2.3 1.7 to 2.2 1.4 to 2.0 October projections 1.7 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 Central Tendencies Ranges 1. Projections of real GDP growth, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are fourth-quarter-to-fourthquarter growth rates, i.e. percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures and the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, respectively. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to text Table 1a Economic Projections for the First Half of 2008 1 Central Tendencies and Ranges Central Tendency Range Real GDP Growth 0.6 to 1.1 0.3 to 2.0 Total PCE Inflation 2.5 to 2.6 2.0 to 3.0 Core PCE Inflation 2.1 to 2.3 2.0 to 2.4 Participants' Projections Projection Real GDP Growth Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 0.7 2.3 2.2 2 1.4 2.7 2.4 3 1.0 2.5 2.0 4 0.3 2.5 2.0 5 0.8 2.8 2.2 6 2.0 2.0 2.0 7 0.9 2.5 2.2 8 1.1 2.5 2.2 9 1.0 2.6 2.3 10 1.0 2.5 2.3 11 0.5 2.2 2.1 12 0.5 2.5 2.1 13 0.7 2.6 2.2 14 0.8 2.5 2.2 15 0.8 3.0 2.3 16 0.6 2.5 2.3 17 1.6 2.6 2.1 1. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. Return to text Table 1b Implied Economic Projections for the Second Half of 2008 1 Central Tendencies and Ranges Central Tendency Range Real GDP Growth 2.0 to 2.8 1.5 to 3.3 Total PCE Inflation 1.9 to 2.2 1.5 to 2.6 Core PCE Inflation 1.9 to 2.1 1.7 to 2.3 Participants' Projections Projection Real GDP Growth Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 1.9 2.1 2.0 2 2.6 2.3 2.2 3 3.0 1.9 2.0 4 3.3 1.9 1.8 5 2.2 2.2 2.2 6 2.4 2.0 2.0 7 2.1 1.7 1.8 8 2.5 1.9 2.0 9 3.0 2.0 1.9 10 2.4 2.1 2.1 11 2.1 2.0 1.9 12 1.5 2.1 2.1 13 1.5 2.0 2.0 14 2.0 2.3 2.0 15 2.2 2.6 2.3 16 2.0 1.5 1.7 17 2.8 2.2 2.1 1. Projections for the second half of 2008 implied by participants' January projections for the first half of 2008 and for 2008 as a whole. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. Return to text Table 2 January Economic Projections Respondent Year GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 2008 1.3 5.3 2.2 2.1 2 2008 2.0 5.2 2.5 2.3 3 2008 2.0 5.2 2.2 2.0 4 2008 1.8 5.3 2.2 1.9 Respondent Year GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 5 2008 1.5 5.3 2.5 2.2 6 2008 2.2 5.2 2.0 2.0 7 2008 1.5 5.2 2.1 2.0 8 2008 1.8 5.3 2.2 2.1 9 2008 2.0 5.2 2.3 2.1 10 2008 1.7 5.0 2.3 2.2 11 2008 1.3 5.2 2.1 2.0 12 2008 1.0 5.3 2.3 2.1 13 2008 1.1 5.5 2.3 2.1 14 2008 1.4 5.3 2.4 2.1 15 2008 1.5 5.2 2.8 2.3 16 2008 1.3 5.3 2.0 2.0 17 2008 2.2 5.2 2.4 2.1 1 2009 2.3 5.3 1.9 1.9 2 2009 2.2 5.0 2.3 2.2 3 2009 2.7 5.1 1.7 1.9 4 2009 3.2 5.0 1.7 1.7 5 2009 2.0 5.2 2.1 2.1 6 2009 2.5 5.0 1.8 1.8 7 2009 2.7 4.9 1.7 1.7 8 2009 2.8 5.2 1.8 2.0 9 2009 2.7 5.2 1.7 1.7 10 2009 2.4 5.0 1.8 2.0 11 2009 2.5 5.1 2.0 2.0 12 2009 2.0 5.5 2.0 2.0 13 2009 1.8 5.7 1.8 1.7 14 2009 2.1 5.2 2.0 1.9 15 2009 2.4 5.1 2.3 2.1 16 2009 2.3 5.4 1.7 1.9 17 2009 2.4 5.1 2.0 2.0 1 2010 2.4 5.0 1.8 1.7 2 2010 2.2 5.1 2.0 2.0 3 2010 3.0 4.8 1.8 1.8 4 2010 2.6 4.7 1.7 1.7 5 2010 2.5 4.9 1.9 1.9 Respondent Year GDP Growth Unemployment Rate Total PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 6 2010 2.5 5.0 1.5 1.5 7 2010 2.5 4.8 1.7 1.7 8 2010 2.6 5.1 2.0 2.0 9 2010 2.7 5.0 1.7 1.7 10 2010 2.6 4.9 1.9 1.9 11 2010 3.1 4.9 2.0 2.0 12 2010 3.0 5.3 1.8 1.8 13 2010 3.2 5.4 1.5 1.4 14 2010 2.7 4.9 1.9 1.9 15 2010 2.7 4.9 2.0 1.8 16 2010 2.6 5.0 1.8 1.9 17 2010 2.5 5.0 1.6 1.6 Chart 1 Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2008 through 2010. Actual data for years 2003 through 2007. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Real GDP Growth Percent 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.2 3.2 3.2 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.0 2.7 3.0 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.3 2.1 2.5 Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.0 1.8 2.2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 5.5 5.7 5.4 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 5.3 5.3 5.1 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 5.2 5.0 4.9 Lower End of Range - - - - - 5.0 4.9 4.7 Actual Unemployment Rate Percent Actual PCE Inflation Percent 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.9 3.1 3.2 1.9 3.4 - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.8 2.3 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.4 2.0 2.0 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.1 1.7 1.7 Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.0 1.7 1.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.1 - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.3 2.2 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.2 2.0 1.9 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.0 1.7 1.7 Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.9 1.7 1.4 Actual Core PCE Inflation Percent Actual Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 2 15 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 13 3 1 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) A A A A A B A A B A A A A A A A A 2(b) C A C C C B C C B C C B C C C C C Uncertainty and Risks - Unemployment Rate 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 4 13 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 0 4 13 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) A B A A A B A A B A A B A A A A A 2(b) A B A A A B A A B A A B A A A A A Uncertainty and Risks - Total PCE Inflation 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 12 5 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 0 11 6 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) B A B A B B B B B B B B B B A A A 2(b) B A B B A B B B A B B B B B A A A Uncertainty and Risks - Core PCE Inflation 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 12 5 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 0 12 5 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) B A B A B B B B B B B B B B A A A 2(b) B A B B A B B B A B B B B B B A A Chart 2(a) Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent) Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Real GDP Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 1.0-1.1 1.2-1.3 1.4-1.5 1.6-1.7 1.8-1.9 2.0-2.1 2.2-2.3 2.4-2.5 2008 (October Greenbook: 1.6-1.7 percent; January Greenbook: 1.4-1.5 percent) 2.6-2.7 2.8-2.9 3.0-3.1 3.2-3.3 January 2 3 4 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 October 0 0 0 3 1 3 4 4 2 0 0 0 2009 (October Greenbook Extension and January Greenbook: 2.2-2.3 percent) January 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 5 3 1 0 1 October 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 4 1 0 0 2010 (October Greenbook Extension: 2.0-2.1 percent; January Greenbook Extension: 2.6-2.7 percent) January 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 0 3 1 October 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 6 0 0 0 Unemployment Rate Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 2008 4.6-4.7 4.8-4.9 5.0-5.1 5.2-5.3 5.4-5.5 5.6-5.7 (October Greenbook: 4.8-4.9 percent; January Greenbook: 5.0-5.1 percent) January 0 0 1 15 1 0 October 1 13 3 0 0 0 2009 (October Greenbook Extension: 4.8-4.9 percent; January Greenbook: 5.2-5.3 percent) January 0 1 8 5 2 1 October 2 12 3 0 0 0 Projections 2010 4.6-4.7 4.8-4.9 5.0-5.1 5.2-5.3 5.4-5.5 5.6-5.7 (October Greenbook Extension: 4.8-4.9 percent; January Greenbook Extension: 5.0-5.1 percent) January 1 7 7 1 1 0 October 4 10 3 0 0 0 Chart 2(b) Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent) Histograms, six panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. PCE Inflation Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 2008 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4 2.5-2.6 2.7-2.8 (October Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent; January Greenbook: 2.1-2.2 percent) January 0 0 2 6 6 2 1 October 0 7 5 4 1 0 0 2009 (October Greenbook Extension and January Greenbook: 1.7-1.8 percent) January 0 9 5 1 2 0 0 October 2 9 4 2 0 0 0 2010 (October Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent; January Greenbook Extension: 1.7-1.8 percent) January 3 7 7 0 0 0 0 October 4 6 7 0 0 0 0 Core PCE Inflation Projections Number of Participants (except as noted) Projections 2008 1.3-1.4 1.5-1.6 1.7-1.8 1.9-2.0 2.1-2.2 2.3-2.4 (October Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent; January Greenbook: 2.1-2.2 percent) January 0 0 0 6 9 2 October 0 0 9 8 0 0 2009 (October Greenbook Extension and January Greenbook: 1.9-2.0 percent) January 0 0 5 9 3 0 October 0 2 9 6 0 0 2010 (October and January Greenbook Extension: 1.9-2.0 percent) January 1 2 7 7 0 0 October 0 4 8 5 0 0 Return to top Home | Monetary policy | FOMC | FOMC transcripts Accessibility | Contact Us Last update: March 21, 2014
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