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Accessible Version Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee January 27-28, 2009 Presentation Materials Presentation Materials (PDF) Pages 218 to 267 of the Transcript Appendix 1: Materials used by Ms. Mosser and Mr. Hilton Class II FOMC - Restricted FR Page 1 Top panel (1) Title: U.S. Libor-OIS Spreads Series: Spreads between One-Week, One-Month, Three-Month Libor Rates and One-Week, One-Month, ThreeMonth Overnight Index Swap Rates for U.S. Horizon: July 1, 2007 - January 23, 2009 Description: U.S. Libor to OIS spreads decline after announcement of Treasury Capital Purchase Program and FDIC Debt Guarantee. Sept. 14: Lehman Brothers Holdings files for bankruptcy; Oct. 13: Euro Area Announcement; Oct. 14: Treasury Capital Purchase Program, FDIC Debt Guarantee, and further details of Federal Reserve CPFF Program Announced Source: Bloomberg Middle panel (2) Title: Three-Month Commercial Paper Rates Series: Three-Month AA-Rated Financial, AA-Non-Financial, AA-Asset Backed, and A2/P2 Non-Financial Commercial Paper Rates Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Three-month commercial paper rates decline in January. Sept. 19: AMLF announced; Oct. 7: CPFF announced (effective Oct. 27); Oct. 21: MMIFF announced Source: Federal Reserve Board Bottom panel (3) Title: Mortgages and Agencies Series: Mortgage Option-Adjusted Spread to Treasury, 5-Year Fannie Mae Debt to Treasury, and 30-Year Fixed Conforming Mortgage Rate Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Mortgage rates increase while agency rates decline. Sept. 7: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enter conservatorship; Nov. 25: Agency Coupon and Agency-MBS Purchases Announced; Dec. 30: Agency-MBS FAQ Released; Jan. 5: First Agency-MBS Purchase Source: Bloomberg, Lehman Brothers/Barclays Page 2 Top panel (4) Title: Corporate Debt Cash Spreads Narrow Recently Series: Investment Grade and High Yield corporate debt cash spreads Horizon: August 1, 2007 - January 23, 2009 Description: Corporate debt cash spreads narrow. Source: Merrill Lynch/Bank of America Middle panel (5) Title: Monthly Investment Grade Bond Issuance Series: Guaranteed and Not Guaranteed Investment Grade Bond issuance Horizon: January 2008 - January 2009 Description: Investment grade guaranteed bond issuance increases from early 2008. Source: JPMorgan Chase Page 3 Top panel (6) Title: Asset-Backed Security Spreads Narrow After Year End Series: AAA-Rated Spreads to 1-Month Libor for 3-Year Auto ABS, 5-Year Credit Card ABS, and 3-Year FFELP Student Loan ABS Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Asset-backed security spreads narrow after year end. Dec. 19: TALF announced Source: JPMorgan Chase Middle panel (7) Title: Commercial Mortgage-Backed and Leveraged Loan Prices Deteriorate Series: Implied Prices of Series 2, 4 CMBX and LCDX Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Commercial mortgage-backed and leveraged loan prices deteriorate. Source: Lehman Brothers/Barclays, JPMorgan Chase Page 4 Top panel (8) Title: Average Daily Bid-Ask Spread: Euro-Dollar FX Rate Series: Average daily bid-ask spread of the Euro-Dollar FX rate 10-day moving average and average percent Horizon: January 1, 2007 - January 22, 2009 Description: Average daily bid-ask spread of Euro-Dollar FX rate decreasing in January. Source: ICAP FX Middle panel (9) Title: Trade Quote Sizes in the Treasury Market Shrink Series: Average daily trade quote sizes in the Treasury market (2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year) for 2008, December 2008, and January 2009 Horizon: 2008-2009 Description: Trade quote sizes in the Treasury market shrink. Source: Broker Tec Page 5 Top panel (10) Title: Average Absolute Price Error between Treasury Yields and FRB Model Series: Average Absolute Price Error between the FRB Treasury Spline and Nominal Yields Horizon: January 1, 2007 - January 21, 2009 Description: The average absolute price error between the FRB Treasury spline and nominal Treasury yields increases. * Calculated from securities with two to ten years until maturity, excluding on-the-run and first off-the-run securities. Source: Federal Reserve Board Middle panel (11) Title: Corporate CDS Bond Basis Series: Investment grade and high yield corporate CDS-bond basis Horizon: January 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Investment grade corporate CDS-bond basis remains steady since December while high yield corporate CDS-bond basis increases. Source: JPMorgan Chase Bottom panel (12) Title: Hedge Fund Returns Decline Series: Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index twelve-month rolling returns Horizon: January 1, 1998 - December 30, 2008 Description: Hedge fund annual average returns decline. Source: CS/Tremont, Bloomberg, Lehman Brothers/Barclays Page 6 Top panel (13) Bank Earnings Disappoint Expectations Q3 2008 - Q4 2008 Q4 Earnings Earnings Estimate ($bln) Q3 Capital Ratios Actual Earnings ($bln) Tangible Common Equity to Assets Tier 1 Capital Ratio U.S. Bank Holding Companies JPMorgan Chase 0.4 0.7 3.8 8.9 -5.0 -8.3 1.8 8.2 1.6 -1.8 2.6 7.6 Merrill Lynch -1.9 -15.3 Wells Fargo** 1.6 State Street 0.0 Bank of New York-Mellon Citigroup Bank of America 8.7 5.4 8.6 0.1 2.4 16.0 0.7 0.1 2.1 9.3 Goldman Sachs -1.7 -2.1 11.6 Morgan Stanley 0.5 -2.3 12.7 Foreign Banks (in local currency) UBS -3.1 1.6 10.8 Credit Suisse -3.0 2.0 10.4 Deutsche Bank -4.4 1.2 7.6 -4.8 HSBC 4.2 3.4 8.2 Barclays* 1.1 1.0 7.9 -4.2 2.7 BNP Paribas 0.7 2.1 Societe Generale 0.6 2.7 RBS* 8.2 * U.K. banks report semi-annually Return to table ** Expected to report Q4 earning on 1/28/09 Return to table Source: Bloomberg Bottom panel (14) Title: Bank Capital Ratios Series: Tier 1 and Tangible Common Equity Ratios of eight large banks and fourteen regional banks Horizon: Q3 2008 Description: Regional banks, on average, have higher volumes of liquid assets than larger banks, shown in their tangible common equity ratios. Tier 1 Ratio: 8 Large Banks: 11.5%; 14 Regional Banks: 11.1%. Tangible Common Equity Ratio: 8 Large Banks: 3.4%; 14 Regional Banks: 6.1%. Source: Goldman Sachs Page 7 Top panel (15) Title: Former Investment Bank Equity Prices Series: Equity prices for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Former investment bank equity prices are decreasing since they have become bank holding companies. Sept. 22: Goldman and Morgan Stanley become bank holding companies Source: Bloomberg Middle panel (16) Title: Commercial Bank Equity Prices Series: Equity prices for Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and S&P 500 Index Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Commercial bank equity prices for Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo decrease. Source: Bloomberg Bottom panel (17) Title: European Bank Equity Prices Series: Equity prices for Barclays, RBS, HSBC, Deutsche, Societe Generale, UBS, and Credit Suisse Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: European bank equity prices decrease. Source: Bloomberg Page 8 Top panel (18) Title: Former Investment Bank CDS Spreads Series: Credit Default Swap Spreads for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Credit default swap spreads for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs stabilize below recent wide levels. Source: Markit Middle panel (19) Title: Commercial Bank CDS Spreads Series: Credit Default Swap Spreads for Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Commercial bank CDS spreads for Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo widen modestly while Citigroup spread widens dramatically. Sept. 14: Lehman Brothers Holdings files for bankruptcy & Bank of America announced purchse of Merrill Lynch; Nov. 23: US government provides a package of guarantees, liquidity access, and capital to Citigroup Source: Markit Bottom panel (20) Title: European Bank CDS Spreads Series: Credit Default Swap Spreads for Barclays, RBS, HSBC, Deutsche, Societe Generale, UBS, and Credit Suisse Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Credit default swap spreads for Barclays and UBS widen. Source: Bloomberg Page 9 Top panel (21) Title: Sovereign CDS Spreads Widen Series: Credit Default Swap spreads for United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Japan, Ireland, Australia, and Korea Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Sovereign credit default swap spreads widen. Source: Bloomberg Middle panel (22) Title: Treasury Yield Curve Steepens Modestly Series: 2-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year, and 30-Year Treasury Yields Horizon: August 1, 2007 - January 23, 2009 Description: Treasury yield curve steepens modestly. Source: Bloomberg Bottom panel (23) Title: Distribution of Expected Policy Target Rate Among Primary Dealers Prior to January 28 FOMC Meeting Series: Dealer expectations for policy target rate by quarter, average forecast for policy target by quarter, and market rate for policy expectation by quarter as of 1/20/2009 Horizon: Expectations for Q1 2009 - Q4 2010 Description: On average, primary dealer economists are forecasting a slower rate of increase in the policy target rate over the next two years than what is currently priced into Eurodollar futures. Source: Dealer Policy Survey Page 10 Top panel (24) Title: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Assets Series: The composition of the Federal Reserve balance sheet assets. Horizon: August 2007 - January 2009 Description: The Federal Reserve balance sheet contracts slightly. All Other Lending; PCF+PDCF; AMLF; CPFF; FX Swaps; TAF; Outright Agency Holdings; Single Tranche Repo; Conventional RPs; Outright Treasury Holdings; Autofactors Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middle panel (25) Title: Market Rates Corresponding to Liquidity Facilities Series: One-Month GC Treasury Repo, One-Month Agency-MBS Repo, One-Month USD Libor, Three-Month USD Libor, Three-Month Financial Commercial Paper Horizon: July 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Market rates steadily decline. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Page 11 Top panel (26) Title: TSLF Loans Outstanding Series: Schedule 1 Term Securities Lending Facility loans outstanding, Schedule 2 Term Securities Lending Facility loans outstanding, Term Securities Lending Facility Option Program outstanding (Schedule 2) Horizon: March 28, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Term Securities Lending Facility loans outstanding decrease. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middle panel (27) Title: Demand at TSLF Auctions Series: Schedule 1 Auction Size, Schedule 1 Amount Awarded, Schedule 2 Auction Size, Schedule 2 Amount Awarded, Schedule 1 Stop-Out Rate, Schedule 2 Stop-Out Rate Horizon: March 27, 2008 - January 22, 2009 Description: Term Securities Lending Facility amount awarded decreases for both Schedule 1 and Schedule 2 auctions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Bottom panel (28) Title: Total Outstanding FX Swap Draw-Downs Decline Series: Total Outstanding FX Swap Draw-Downs for the Bank of Korea, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank, Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Norges Bank, Danmark National Banken, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England Horizon: December 1, 2007 - January 23, 2009 Description: Total outstanding FX swap draw-downs decline. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Page 12 Top panel (29) Title: Term Auction Facility Loans Outstanding Series: Term Auction Facility loans outstanding for Forward, 84-Day, and 28-Day operations Horizon: December 20, 2007 - January 23, 2009 Description: Term Auction Facility loans outstanding increase after year-end. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middle panel (30) Title: Demand at TAF Auctions Series: Term Auction Facility Auction Size, Amount Awarded, and Stop-Out Rate Spread to Minimum Bid Rate Horizon: December 20, 2007 - January 15, 2009 Description: Recent Term Auction Facility auctions stop-out at the minimum bid rate. Source: Federal Reserve Board Bottom panel (31) Title: PCF and PDCF Borrowing Series: Primary Credit Facility and Primary Dealer Credit Facility borrowing Horizon: January 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Primary Credit Facility and Primary Dealer Credit Facility borrowing decreases. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Page 13 Top panel (32) Title: Amount of CPFF Loans Outstanding Series: Amount of Commercial Paper Funding Facility loans outstanding for commercial paper, FDIC guaranteed commercial paper, and asset-backed commercial paper Horizon: October 27, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: CP and FDIC guaranteed CP outstanding increase slightly recently. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middle panel (33) Title: AMLF Loans Outstanding Series: Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility loans outstanding Horizon: September 22, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: AMLF loans outstanding decrease. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Bottom panel (34) Title: Assets in Prime Money Market Funds Series: Assets in Prime, Treasury Only, Treasury and Repo, and Treasury and Agency Money Market Funds Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Assets in Prime and Treasury and Agency funds increase while assets in Treasury Only and Treasury and Repo funds decrease. Sept. 14: Lehman Brothers Holdings files for bankruptcy; Sept. 16: Reserve Fund breaks the buck; Sept. 19: AMLF announced; Oct. 7: CPFF announced (effective Oct. 27); Oct. 21: MMIFF; Jan. 5: MMIFF eligibility expanded Source: iMoneyNet Page 14 Top panel (35) Title: Purchases of Agency-MBS Series: Cumulative Amount of Agency-MBS Purchases and Agency-MBS Purchase Size Horizon: January 5, 2009 -January 23, 2009 Description: Cumulative amount of Agency-MBS purchases increases. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middle panel (36) Title: Mortgage Refinance Applications Series: Mortgage Application Index, Mortgage Refinance Application Index Horizon: January 1, 2008 - January 16, 2009 Description: Mortgage refinance applications increase. Nov. 25: Agency Coupon and Agency-MBS Purchases Announced; Dec. 30: Agency-MBS FAQ Released; Jan. 5: First Agency-MBS Purchase Source: Bloomberg Bottom panel (37) Title: Purchases of Agency Coupon Debt Series: Cumulative Amount of Agency Coupon Debt and Agency Coupon Purchase Size Horizon: December 5, 2008 - January 22, 2009 Description: Cumulative amount of agency coupon debt purchased increases. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York APPENDIX: Reference Exhibits Page 15 Top panel (38) Title: Three-Month Libor and Expectations for Three-Month Libor Decline Series: Three-Month U.S. Libor and Three-Month Forward Three-Month Libor Horizon: July 1, 2007 - January 23, 2009 Description: Three-month Libor and expectations for three-month Libor decline. Source: Bloomberg Middle panel (39) Title: Spread between Jumbo and Conforming Mortgage Rates Remains Wide Series: Conforming Mortgage Rates, Jumbo Mortgage Rates, and the spread between Conforming Mortgage Rates and Jumbo Mortgage Rates Horizon: January 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Conforming mortgage rates decline. Source: Bloomberg Bottom panel (40) Title: Ten- and Thirty-Year AAA-Rated Municipal Debt Yields Decline Series: Ten- and thirty-year AAA-Rated municipal debt yields Horizon: August 1, 2008 - January 23, 2009 Description: Ten- and thirty-year AAA-rated municipal debt yields decline. Source: Bloomberg Page 16 Top panel (41) Title: Distribution of Expected Policy Target Rate Among Primary Dealers Prior to December 16 FOMC meeting Series: Dealer expectations for policy target rate by quarter, average forecast for policy target by quarter, and market rate for policy expectation by quarter Horizon: Q1 2009 - Q4 2009 Description: On average, primary dealer economists are forecasting a slower rate of increase in the policy target rate than what is currently priced into Eurodollar futures. Source: Dealer Policy Survey Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Sichel, Ms. Dynan, and Mr. Reeve Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook January 27, 2009 CLASS II FOMC - Restricted (FR) Exhibit 1 Recent Indicators Top-left panel Change in Private Payroll Employment Thousands of employees Period Change Period Change January 2005 88.67 February 2005 145.00 March 2005 143.00 April 2005 213.33 May 2005 199.00 June 2005 250.00 July 2005 239.00 August 2005 251.33 September 2005 200.67 October 2005 150.67 November 2005 190.67 December 2005 192.67 January 2006 240.67 February 2006 215.67 March 2006 250.67 April 2006 206.33 May 2006 129.00 June 2006 82.67 July 2006 99.33 August 2006 151.67 September 2006 158.67 October 2006 119.67 November 2006 119.00 December 2006 142.33 January 2007 155.33 February 2007 98.67 March 2007 89.33 April 2007 63.33 May 2007 108.67 June 2007 85.33 July 2007 105.67 August 2007 70.67 September 2007 62.33 October 2007 67.67 November 2007 71.67 December 2007 45.00 January 2008 -16.33 February 2008 -67.33 March 2008 -97.00 April 2008 -101.00 Period Change May 2008 -97.67 June 2008 -100.00 July 2008 -105.00 August 2008 -118.33 September 2008 -209.67 October 2008 -320.33 November 2008 -467.67 December 2008 -516.67 Note: Three-month moving average. Top-right panel Manufacturing IP Ex. Motor Vehicles Percent change, annual rate Period Percent change January 2005 5.92 February 2005 7.09 March 2005 5.21 April 2005 2.56 May 2005 3.02 June 2005 3.44 July 2005 3.27 August 2005 1.74 September 2005 -3.84 October 2005 2.18 November 2005 6.29 December 2005 12.22 January 2006 7.47 February 2006 1.56 March 2006 0.90 April 2006 0.93 May 2006 1.27 June 2006 3.10 July 2006 2.24 August 2006 3.91 September 2006 1.94 October 2006 -0.87 November 2006 -3.01 December 2006 1.17 January 2007 1.32 February 2007 2.46 Period Percent change March 2007 1.48 April 2007 3.93 May 2007 5.00 June 2007 3.85 July 2007 5.49 August 2007 3.16 September 2007 3.81 October 2007 -0.46 November 2007 1.76 December 2007 -0.28 January 2008 1.61 February 2008 -1.54 March 2008 -0.02 April 2008 -2.62 May 2008 -0.44 June 2008 -3.86 July 2008 -3.10 August 2008 -4.51 September 2008 -18.31 October 2008 -13.35 November 2008 -19.48 December 2008 -11.88 Note: Three-month percent changes. Middle-left panel Light Motor Vehicle Production Millions of units, annual rate Period Production January 2005 11.48 February 2005 12.06 March 2005 11.58 April 2005 11.02 May 2005 11.17 June 2005 11.53 July 2005 11.33 August 2005 11.73 September 2005 12.10 October 2005 12.07 November 2005 11.32 December 2005 10.84 Period Production January 2006 11.37 February 2006 11.06 March 2006 11.32 April 2006 11.12 May 2006 10.91 June 2006 11.13 July 2006 10.16 August 2006 10.68 September 2006 10.55 October 2006 10.23 November 2006 10.54 December 2006 10.73 January 2007 10.00 February 2007 10.38 March 2007 10.37 April 2007 10.76 May 2007 10.62 June 2007 10.92 July 2007 11.08 August 2007 10.71 September 2007 10.24 October 2007 10.18 November 2007 10.37 December 2007 10.23 January 2008 9.98 February 2008 9.90 March 2008 9.16 April 2008 8.18 May 2008 8.44 June 2008 8.96 July 2008 9.44 August 2008 7.99 September 2008 8.21 October 2008 7.87 November 2008 7.40 December 2008 6.44 Quarterly average Millions of units, annual rate Period Production 2005:Q1 11.71 2005:Q2 11.24 Period Production 2005:Q3 11.72 2005:Q4 11.41 2006:Q1 11.25 2006:Q2 11.05 2006:Q3 10.46 2006:Q4 10.50 2007:Q1 10.25 2007:Q2 10.77 2007:Q3 10.68 2007:Q4 10.26 2008:Q1 9.68 2008:Q2 8.53 2008:Q3 8.55 2008:Q4 7.24 p 5.88 2009:Q1 Middle-right panel Real PCE Goods Ex. Motor Vehicles Percent change, annual rate Period Percent change Dec. GB 2008:H1 2.25 ND 2008:Q3 -7.36 ND 2008:Q4 -9.11 -9.26 2009:Q1 -5.28 -4.57 ND No data Bottom-left panel Single-Family Housing Starts Millions of units, annual rate Period Starts Permits January 2005 1.74 1.65 February 2005 1.79 1.63 March 2005 1.58 1.58 April 2005 1.66 1.65 May 2005 1.71 1.64 June 2005 1.72 1.68 July 2005 1.72 1.72 August 2005 1.73 1.72 September 2005 1.79 1.80 October 2005 1.74 1.74 Period Starts Permits November 2005 1.81 1.73 December 2005 1.63 1.66 January 2006 1.82 1.69 February 2006 1.80 1.64 March 2006 1.60 1.55 April 2006 1.51 1.50 May 2006 1.57 1.45 June 2006 1.45 1.39 July 2006 1.42 1.31 August 2006 1.36 1.28 September 2006 1.38 1.22 October 2006 1.21 1.18 November 2006 1.29 1.16 December 2006 1.25 1.20 January 2007 1.11 1.14 February 2007 1.19 1.12 March 2007 1.20 1.14 April 2007 1.20 1.08 May 2007 1.15 1.06 June 2007 1.14 1.02 July 2007 1.06 1.00 August 2007 0.97 0.93 September 2007 0.94 0.87 October 2007 0.88 0.81 November 2007 0.82 0.77 December 2007 0.78 0.71 January 2008 0.75 0.68 February 2008 0.72 0.65 March 2008 0.71 0.62 April 2008 0.68 0.65 May 2008 0.68 0.64 June 2008 0.66 0.62 July 2008 0.64 0.58 August 2008 0.62 0.55 September 2008 0.55 0.54 October 2008 0.54 0.47 November 2008 0.46 0.41 December 2008 0.40 0.36 Bottom-right panel Real GDP (Percent change, annual rate) Jan. GB Dec. GB 2008:Q4 -4.9 -4.7 2009:Q1 -5.6 -5.0 2009:Q2 -1.3 -1.2 Exhibit 2 Key Background Factors and Medium-Term Outlook Top-left panel Real GDP Percent change, annual rate Period Percent change Dec. GB 2008:H2 -2.74 -2.58 2009:H1 -3.45 -3.11 2009:H2 1.95 1.31 2010 2.61 2.47 Top-right panel Factors Contributing to Recovery • Financial stress begins to recede • Housing begins to stabilize • Fiscal and monetary stimulus • Inventory dynamics Middle-left panel Response to 2009 Fiscal Stimulus Package • Households begin spending tax cuts ($180) and transfers ($90) when received. • Investment response to business tax cuts ($120) is limited. • Of total new funding for state and local governments ($400), only 40 percent spent by the end of 2010. Middle-right panel Contribution of Fiscal Package to GDP Growth* Percentage points Period Contribution Dec. GB 2009 1.35 0.90 2010 0.90 0.55 * Includes housing-related programs financed by the TARP. Return to text Bottom-left panel Contributions of Inventories to Real GDP Growth (Percentage points, annual rate) Current Episode* Postwar Average 1. Year before peak -0.5 0.4 2. Peak to trough -0.3 -1.6 1.0 1.3 3. Year after trough * GDP peak in 2008:Q2 and trough in 2009:Q2. Return to table Bottom-right panel Inventory Dynamics • In the year before the peak, inventories held down real GDP growth. • Peak-to-trough, inventories hold down real GDP only a little. • In the year after the trough, the cessation of inventory decumulation contributes importantly to real GDP growth. Exhibit 3 Single-Family Housing Top-left panel Single-Family Starts Millions of units, annual rate Period Starts 2004:Q1 1.56 2004:Q2 1.61 2004:Q3 1.64 2004:Q4 1.61 2005:Q1 1.70 2005:Q2 1.70 2005:Q3 1.75 2005:Q4 1.73 2006:Q1 1.74 2006:Q2 1.51 2006:Q3 1.39 2006:Q4 1.25 2007:Q1 1.16 2007:Q2 1.16 2007:Q3 0.99 2007:Q4 0.83 2008:Q1 0.73 2008:Q2 0.68 Period Starts 2008:Q3 0.60 2008:Q4 0.46 Forecast 2009:Q1 0.36 2009:Q2 0.39 2009:Q3 0.48 2009:Q4 0.55 2010:Q1 0.58 2010:Q2 0.61 2010:Q3 0.64 2010:Q4 0.70 Top-right panel Rate on 30-year Fixed-Rate Conforming Mortgages Period Percent 10 January 2007 6.21 17 January 2007 6.23 24 January 2007 6.25 31 January 2007 6.34 7 February 2007 6.28 14 February 2007 6.30 21 February 2007 6.22 28 February 2007 6.18 7 March 2007 6.14 14 March 2007 6.14 21 March 2007 6.16 28 March 2007 6.16 4 April 2007 6.17 11 April 2007 6.22 18 April 2007 6.17 25 April 2007 6.16 2 May 2007 6.16 9 May 2007 6.15 16 May 2007 6.21 23 May 2007 6.37 30 May 2007 6.42 6 June 2007 6.53 13 June 2007 6.74 20 June 2007 6.69 27 June 2007 6.67 Period Percent 4 July 2007 6.63 11 July 2007 6.73 18 July 2007 6.73 25 July 2007 6.69 1 August 2007 6.68 8 August 2007 6.59 15 August 2007 6.62 22 August 2007 6.52 29 August 2007 6.45 5 September 2007 6.46 12 September 2007 6.31 19 September 2007 6.34 26 September 2007 6.42 3 October 2007 6.37 10 October 2007 6.40 17 October 2007 6.40 24 October 2007 6.33 31 October 2007 6.26 7 November 2007 6.24 14 November 2007 6.24 21 November 2007 6.20 28 November 2007 6.10 5 December 2007 5.96 12 December 2007 6.11 19 December 2007 6.14 26 December 2007 6.17 2 January 2008 6.07 9 January 2008 5.87 16 January 2008 5.69 23 January 2008 5.48 30 January 2008 5.68 6 February 2008 5.67 13 February 2008 5.72 20 February 2008 6.04 27 February 2008 6.24 5 March 2008 6.03 12 March 2008 6.13 19 March 2008 5.87 26 March 2008 5.85 2 April 2008 5.88 Period Percent 9 April 2008 5.88 16 April 2008 5.88 23 April 2008 6.03 30 April 2008 6.06 7 May 2008 6.05 14 May 2008 6.01 21 May 2008 5.98 28 May 2008 6.08 4 June 2008 6.09 11 June 2008 6.32 18 June 2008 6.42 25 June 2008 6.45 2 July 2008 6.35 9 July 2008 6.37 16 July 2008 6.26 23 July 2008 6.63 30 July 2008 6.52 6 August 2008 6.52 13 August 2008 6.52 20 August 2008 6.47 27 August 2008 6.40 3 September 2008 6.35 10 September 2008 5.93 17 September 2008 5.78 24 September 2008 6.09 1 October 2008 6.10 8 October 2008 5.94 15 October 2008 6.46 22 October 2008 6.04 29 October 2008 6.46 5 November 2008 6.20 12 November 2008 6.14 19 November 2008 6.04 26 November 2008 5.97 3 December 2008 5.53 10 December 2008 5.47 17 December 2008 5.19 24 December 2008 5.14 31 December 2008 5.10 Forecast Period Percent 2009:Q1 5.15 2009:Q2 5.10 2009:Q3 5.05 2009:Q4 5.05 2010:Q1 5.00 2010:Q2 5.00 2010:Q3 4.95 2010:Q4 4.95 MBS purchase program announced on November 25, 2008. Middle-left panel Tighter Supply of Mortgage Credit Much more difficult to obtain mortgages for households: • Lacking solid credit histories • Unable to make significant downpayments • In need of low introductory rates Lending is more restrictive than in the past to those seeking to finance an amount above the conforming limit. Middle-right panel Overvaluation of Single-Family Homes* Period Percent 1979:Q1 2.18 1979:Q2 4.14 1979:Q3 4.07 1979:Q4 4.89 1980:Q1 6.79 1980:Q2 6.86 1980:Q3 5.67 1980:Q4 5.87 1981:Q1 4.33 1981:Q2 6.10 1981:Q3 7.10 1981:Q4 5.19 1982:Q1 4.84 1982:Q2 4.07 1982:Q3 1.28 1982:Q4 -1.09 1983:Q1 -0.92 1983:Q2 -1.67 Period Percent 1983:Q3 -1.01 1983:Q4 -1.48 1984:Q1 -1.36 1984:Q2 -1.21 1984:Q3 -0.55 1984:Q4 -1.56 1985:Q1 -1.42 1985:Q2 -2.55 1985:Q3 -3.00 1985:Q4 -3.46 1986:Q1 -3.77 1986:Q2 -3.29 1986:Q3 -2.86 1986:Q4 -3.06 1987:Q1 -3.65 1987:Q2 -0.85 1987:Q3 -1.21 1987:Q4 0.26 1988:Q1 -0.74 1988:Q2 1.91 1988:Q3 3.26 1988:Q4 3.25 1989:Q1 4.23 1989:Q2 2.64 1989:Q3 2.52 1989:Q4 2.49 1990:Q1 3.02 1990:Q2 1.98 1990:Q3 0.11 1990:Q4 -0.85 1991:Q1 -0.42 1991:Q2 -0.38 1991:Q3 -1.46 1991:Q4 -2.38 1992:Q1 -1.48 1992:Q2 -2.85 1992:Q3 -3.62 1992:Q4 -3.34 1993:Q1 -5.05 1993:Q2 -5.60 Period Percent 1993:Q3 -5.51 1993:Q4 -4.92 1994:Q1 -4.60 1994:Q2 -3.40 1994:Q3 -3.45 1994:Q4 -3.38 1995:Q1 -4.20 1995:Q2 -4.78 1995:Q3 -4.26 1995:Q4 -4.70 1996:Q1 -4.56 1996:Q2 -3.74 1996:Q3 -4.35 1996:Q4 -5.09 1997:Q1 -4.98 1997:Q2 -4.57 1997:Q3 -5.39 1997:Q4 -4.89 1998:Q1 -4.44 1998:Q2 -4.19 1998:Q3 -4.38 1998:Q4 -3.90 1999:Q1 -3.29 1999:Q2 -2.20 1999:Q3 -0.95 1999:Q4 -0.53 2000:Q1 0.61 2000:Q2 1.63 2000:Q3 2.10 2000:Q4 2.06 2001:Q1 2.07 2001:Q2 2.78 2001:Q3 3.05 2001:Q4 3.12 2002:Q1 4.40 2002:Q2 5.83 2002:Q3 6.68 2002:Q4 7.72 2003:Q1 8.32 2003:Q2 9.42 Period Percent 2003:Q3 12.30 2003:Q4 14.61 2004:Q1 16.45 2004:Q2 19.90 2004:Q3 21.62 2004:Q4 24.13 2005:Q1 27.23 2005:Q2 29.85 2005:Q3 32.20 2005:Q4 33.57 2006:Q1 33.07 2006:Q2 31.95 2006:Q3 30.46 2006:Q4 29.13 2007:Q1 27.22 2007:Q2 25.01 2007:Q3 21.40 2007:Q4 15.85 2008:Q1 10.69 2008:Q2 9.13 2008:Q3 4.90 Forecast 2008:Q4 -0.88 2009:Q1 -6.42 2009:Q2 -10.97 2009:Q3 -14.91 2009:Q4 -17.77 2010:Q1 -19.85 2010:Q2 -21.57 2010:Q3 -22.72 2010:Q4 -23.52 * Deviation of log price-rent ratio from a linear trend, estimated over 1975:Q1-2003:Q3. Return to text Bottom-left panel Housing Equity Sept. 2007 Sept. 2008 1. Subprime 52 61 2. Prime* 17 31 Current equity < 20% Current equity < 0 Sept. 2007 Sept. 2008 11 28 1 9 3. Subprime 4. Prime* * Includes near-prime mortgages; first liens only. Return to table Bottom-right panel Foreclosure Starts Millions Prime* Subprime FHA/VA 2006 0.32 0.54 0.16 2007 0.55 0.85 0.15 2008 0.99 1.08 0.20 2009 1.08 0.71 0.25 2010 0.76 0.42 0.21 Forecast * Includes near-prime mortgages. Return to table Note: 2008 figure based on data through 2008:Q3 and a projection for 2008:Q4. Exhibit 4 Consumer Spending Top-left panel Real PCE and DPI Percent change, annual rate Period DPI PCE 2006 3.58 3.24 2007 1.84 2.20 2008:H1 4.85 1.04 -2.33 -3.85 2009 2.49 0.64 2010 2.27 2.93 Forecast 2008:H2 Top-right panel Saving Rate and Wealth-to-Income Ratio Period Personal saving rate (Percent) Wealth-to-income ratio 2003:Q1 1.87 5.12 2003:Q2 2.15 5.32 2003:Q3 2.35 5.35 2003:Q4 2.19 5.61 Period Personal saving rate (Percent) Wealth-to-income ratio 2004:Q1 2.07 5.65 2004:Q2 2.00 5.67 2004:Q3 1.78 5.67 2004:Q4 1.41 5.90 2005:Q1 0.82 5.96 2005:Q2 0.51 6.09 2005:Q3 -0.69 6.23 2005:Q4 0.80 6.21 2006:Q1 1.00 6.31 2006:Q2 0.57 6.20 2006:Q3 0.50 6.21 2006:Q4 0.88 6.33 2007:Q1 1.09 6.31 2007:Q2 0.31 6.37 2007:Q3 0.46 6.28 2007:Q4 0.41 6.03 2008:Q1 0.20 5.74 2008:Q2 2.48 5.50 2008:Q3 1.22 5.30 2008:Q4 3.25 4.86 2009:Q1 5.42 4.67 2009:Q2 5.76 4.58 2009:Q3 5.38 4.55 2009:Q4 5.17 4.53 2010:Q1 5.16 4.51 2010:Q2 4.99 4.51 2010:Q3 4.88 4.50 2010:Q4 4.70 4.51 Forecast Middle-left panel Sources of Financing for Consumer Spending Billions of dollars, annual rate Borrowing through: Period Home equity loans and cash-out refinancings Consumer credit 2007 134 396 2008:H1 110 222 2008:Q3 30 73 2008:Q4 -90 17 Note: 2008:Q4 estimated based on partial data. Middle-right panel Commercial Banks Tightening Standards on Consumer Loans Net percentage of respondents Period Credit cards Consumer installment loans 1996:Q1 25.0 15.7 1996:Q2 23.5 12.0 1996:Q3 48.9 24.5 1996:Q4 48.8 23.1 1997:Q1 36.9 20.0 1997:Q2 45.9 19.3 1997:Q3 23.3 8.4 1997:Q4 25.0 12.0 1998:Q1 22.2 16.3 1998:Q2 16.3 6.1 1998:Q3 20.0 7.8 1998:Q4 15.9 8.0 1999:Q1 7.4 -1.9 1999:Q2 13.3 5.4 1999:Q3 4.8 5.6 1999:Q4 4.9 0.0 2000:Q1 4.8 3.9 2000:Q2 2.5 5.5 2000:Q3 -2.6 3.7 2000:Q4 8.3 7.4 2001:Q1 11.8 18.6 2001:Q2 20.0 18.9 2001:Q3 11.4 9.1 2001:Q4 20.0 20.0 2002:Q1 18.2 17.0 2002:Q2 8.6 20.0 2002:Q3 14.7 9.0 2002:Q4 15.2 16.8 2003:Q1 16.2 8.8 2003:Q2 9.7 12.9 2003:Q3 0.0 5.5 2003:Q4 2.9 1.8 2004:Q1 6.3 5.7 2004:Q2 3.3 -2.0 2004:Q3 0.0 0.0 Credit cards Consumer installment loans 2004:Q4 Period -2.9 -3.9 2005:Q1 -3.0 -2.0 2005:Q2 -8.3 -9.8 2005:Q3 -6.5 -3.9 2005:Q4 -3.0 -3.9 2006:Q1 3.2 0.0 2006:Q2 -2.6 1.8 2006:Q3 -3.0 -5.8 2006:Q4 -3.0 -5.8 2007:Q1 0.0 0.0 2007:Q2 -11.1 7.8 2007:Q3 -3.2 12.0 2007:Q4 3.2 26.0 2008:Q1 9.7 32.1 2008:Q2 32.4 44.4 2008:Q3 66.6 67.4 2008:Q4 58.8 64.2 January 2009 58.8 58.0 Bottom-left panel Developments in Consumer ABS Markets • Very little issuance since October. • The commercial banks that make most credit card loans have alternative sources of funding. • But, the finance companies affiliated with the auto manufacturers have not (for the most part) had access to these sources. Bottom-right panel Auto Loans Originated by the Detroit Three Finance Companies per Unit Sold Period Thousands of dollars January 2006 5.26 February 2006 5.85 March 2006 5.86 April 2006 5.74 May 2006 6.27 June 2006 5.95 July 2006 8.45 August 2006 7.20 September 2006 7.21 October 2006 5.14 November 2006 5.90 December 2006 4.60 Period Thousands of dollars January 2007 4.27 February 2007 6.05 March 2007 5.89 April 2007 5.29 May 2007 5.91 June 2007 5.89 July 2007 5.63 August 2007 5.31 September 2007 4.74 October 2007 6.40 November 2007 6.14 December 2007 5.79 January 2008 5.48 February 2008 4.93 March 2008 5.26 April 2008 5.92 May 2008 5.24 June 2008 4.89 July 2008 6.93 August 2008 4.85 September 2008 5.51 October 2008 5.37 November 2008 3.39 Exhibit 5 Business Investment and Finance Top-left panel The Accelerator Period NFB output (Percent change) BFI share (Percent) 1990:Q1 3.69 21.14 1990:Q2 2.13 20.50 1990:Q3 2.71 20.78 1990:Q4 2.20 20.62 1991:Q1 1.19 20.15 1991:Q2 -0.22 19.64 1991:Q3 -2.17 19.28 1991:Q4 -1.52 18.97 1992:Q1 -0.66 18.53 1992:Q2 1.08 19.04 Period NFB output (Percent change) BFI share (Percent) 1992:Q3 3.10 19.03 1992:Q4 3.37 19.29 1993:Q1 3.96 19.36 1993:Q2 4.99 19.82 1993:Q3 3.86 19.70 1993:Q4 3.37 20.30 1994:Q1 3.06 20.35 1994:Q2 3.13 20.26 1994:Q3 4.16 20.40 1994:Q4 5.17 20.93 1995:Q1 4.84 21.62 1995:Q2 4.87 21.51 1995:Q3 4.15 21.30 1995:Q4 2.74 21.42 1996:Q1 3.38 21.52 1996:Q2 2.69 21.53 1996:Q3 3.12 21.95 1996:Q4 4.84 21.96 1997:Q1 4.73 22.00 1997:Q2 5.21 21.97 1997:Q3 5.19 22.59 1997:Q4 5.11 22.29 1998:Q1 5.48 22.55 1998:Q2 4.97 22.85 1998:Q3 5.58 22.62 1998:Q4 4.49 22.75 1999:Q1 4.35 22.81 1999:Q2 5.40 22.99 1999:Q3 4.93 23.03 1999:Q4 5.13 22.49 2000:Q1 5.22 22.96 2000:Q2 5.35 23.12 2000:Q3 4.36 23.18 2000:Q4 5.30 22.87 2001:Q1 3.64 22.45 2001:Q2 2.13 21.45 2001:Q3 1.87 21.19 2001:Q4 0.35 20.44 2002:Q1 -0.17 19.60 2002:Q2 -0.42 19.20 Period NFB output (Percent change) BFI share (Percent) 2002:Q3 0.73 18.93 2002:Q4 0.77 18.76 2003:Q1 2.30 18.45 2003:Q2 2.04 18.71 2003:Q3 1.47 18.57 2003:Q4 2.20 18.59 2004:Q1 4.10 18.22 2004:Q2 4.48 18.52 2004:Q3 4.84 18.91 2004:Q4 4.99 19.27 2005:Q1 3.26 19.26 2005:Q2 3.51 19.50 2005:Q3 3.79 19.51 2005:Q4 3.28 19.57 2006:Q1 3.51 20.00 2006:Q2 3.18 20.09 2006:Q3 3.73 20.21 2006:Q4 3.71 20.10 2007:Q1 2.58 19.99 2007:Q2 2.61 20.09 2007:Q3 0.92 20.05 2007:Q4 1.63 20.10 2008:Q1 2.92 19.97 2008:Q2 2.36 19.81 2008:Q3 2.82 19.74 2008:Q4 2.09 19.27 2009:Q1 0.27 18.59 2009:Q2 -1.35 17.77 2009:Q3 -3.53 17.01 2009:Q4 -4.69 16.46 2010:Q1 -3.78 16.20 2010:Q2 -1.46 16.25 2010:Q3 1.13 16.41 2010:Q4 2.31 16.58 2011:Q1* 2.60 ND 2011:Q2* 3.00 ND Forecast Note: BFI share equals nominal BFI divided by nominal nonfarm business (NFB) output. NFB output growth is measured as the percent change from four quarters earlier, lagged two quarters. * Approximate values. Return to table Top-right panel Components of BFI Percent change, Q4/Q4 Period Equipment and software 2007 Nonresidential structures 2.85 14.54 2008 -8.65 9.41 2009 -11.97 -24.42 2010 9.02 -8.18 Forecast Middle-left panel Equity Valuation for S&P 500 Monthly Percent Period Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield January 1986 10.10 6.41 February 1986 10.09 5.86 March 1986 9.43 4.74 April 1986 8.95 3.96 May 1986 9.08 4.36 June 1986 8.64 4.64 July 1986 8.52 4.32 August 1986 9.04 4.31 September 1986 8.44 4.83 October 1986 9.22 4.82 November 1986 8.74 4.52 December 1986 8.55 4.41 January 1987 8.81 4.09 February 1987 7.79 4.17 March 1987 7.52 4.07 April 1987 7.34 4.68 May 1987 7.44 5.03 June 1987 7.43 4.89 July 1987 7.11 4.63 August 1987 6.44 4.93 September 1987 7.26 5.55 October 1987 9.53 5.56 November 1987 9.11 4.95 December 1987 8.98 4.92 January 1988 8.87 4.91 February 1988 8.73 4.64 Period Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield March 1988 8.36 4.84 April 1988 8.79 5.14 May 1988 9.16 5.45 June 1988 8.47 5.14 July 1988 8.72 5.34 August 1988 9.10 5.39 September 1988 8.90 5.03 October 1988 8.75 4.89 November 1988 9.29 4.90 December 1988 9.00 4.64 January 1989 8.74 4.54 February 1989 8.60 4.63 March 1989 8.63 4.76 April 1989 8.44 4.65 May 1989 8.25 4.54 June 1989 8.18 4.01 July 1989 7.98 4.11 August 1989 7.83 4.09 September 1989 7.91 4.10 October 1989 8.07 3.86 November 1989 8.16 3.79 December 1989 7.93 3.78 January 1990 8.27 4.41 February 1990 8.57 4.66 March 1990 8.47 4.69 April 1990 8.41 4.65 May 1990 8.14 4.62 June 1990 7.93 4.35 July 1990 7.98 4.47 August 1990 8.59 5.00 September 1990 9.26 5.19 October 1990 9.85 5.10 November 1990 9.21 4.79 December 1990 8.96 4.45 January 1991 9.36 4.57 February 1991 8.02 4.39 March 1991 7.90 4.65 April 1991 7.57 4.51 May 1991 8.01 4.54 June 1991 7.86 4.74 Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield July 1991 Period 7.72 4.69 August 1991 7.54 4.42 September 1991 7.59 4.25 October 1991 7.47 4.45 November 1991 7.38 4.52 December 1991 7.64 4.42 January 1992 6.96 4.32 February 1992 7.17 4.52 March 1992 7.14 4.61 April 1992 7.08 4.39 May 1992 7.01 4.37 June 1992 7.27 4.48 July 1992 7.02 4.65 August 1992 7.01 4.45 September 1992 7.00 4.59 October 1992 7.19 4.82 November 1992 6.98 4.62 December 1992 6.85 4.37 January 1993 6.83 4.46 February 1993 6.84 4.32 March 1993 6.63 4.06 April 1993 6.64 3.92 May 1993 6.67 4.01 June 1993 6.69 3.86 July 1993 6.67 3.85 August 1993 6.61 3.50 September 1993 6.55 3.37 October 1993 6.58 3.34 November 1993 6.56 3.60 December 1993 6.63 3.57 January 1994 6.49 3.61 February 1994 6.54 3.72 March 1994 6.62 4.04 April 1994 7.00 4.32 May 1994 6.93 4.43 June 1994 6.87 4.52 July 1994 7.10 4.56 August 1994 6.90 4.51 September 1994 6.91 4.83 October 1994 6.94 5.00 Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield November 1994 Period 7.08 4.96 December 1994 7.32 4.55 January 1995 7.16 4.70 February 1995 7.02 4.61 March 1995 6.99 4.57 April 1995 6.88 4.55 May 1995 6.67 4.11 June 1995 6.63 3.71 July 1995 6.53 4.03 August 1995 6.50 4.17 September 1995 6.36 3.88 October 1995 6.34 3.84 November 1995 6.35 3.69 December 1995 6.14 3.48 January 1996 6.36 3.50 February 1996 5.95 3.82 March 1996 6.17 4.20 April 1996 6.20 4.38 May 1996 6.03 4.48 June 1996 6.12 4.54 July 1996 6.45 4.47 August 1996 6.23 4.35 September 1996 6.11 4.47 October 1996 5.96 4.27 November 1996 5.79 3.98 December 1996 5.84 4.03 January 1997 5.62 4.30 February 1997 5.36 4.17 March 1997 5.59 4.40 April 1997 5.80 4.65 May 1997 5.35 4.46 June 1997 5.08 4.32 July 1997 4.86 3.87 August 1997 4.99 3.94 September 1997 4.92 3.80 October 1997 4.85 3.96 November 1997 5.00 3.79 December 1997 4.94 3.62 January 1998 5.02 3.53 February 1998 4.70 3.61 Period Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield March 1998 4.50 3.64 April 1998 4.40 3.71 May 1998 4.43 3.69 June 1998 4.51 3.39 July 1998 4.28 3.44 August 1998 4.61 3.36 September 1998 4.87 3.24 October 1998 5.10 3.29 November 1998 4.50 3.37 December 1998 4.46 3.25 January 1999 4.21 3.50 February 1999 4.27 3.65 March 1999 4.04 3.85 April 1999 3.96 3.65 May 1999 3.94 3.84 June 1999 4.00 4.03 July 1999 3.83 3.94 August 1999 4.05 4.02 September 1999 4.12 4.14 October 1999 4.26 4.25 November 1999 3.91 4.09 December 1999 3.93 4.26 January 2000 3.84 4.34 February 2000 4.06 3.76 March 2000 4.08 3.64 April 2000 4.01 3.48 May 2000 3.98 3.78 June 2000 3.96 3.61 July 2000 3.96 3.56 August 2000 4.00 3.38 September 2000 4.02 3.55 October 2000 4.48 3.58 November 2000 4.36 3.52 December 2000 4.48 3.30 January 2001 4.61 3.41 February 2001 4.67 3.37 March 2001 5.28 3.31 April 2001 4.98 3.69 May 2001 4.78 3.78 June 2001 4.96 3.67 Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield July 2001 Period 5.10 3.60 August 2001 5.22 3.46 September 2001 6.18 3.59 October 2001 5.69 3.38 November 2001 5.34 3.25 December 2001 5.28 3.66 January 2002 5.36 3.64 February 2002 5.38 3.56 March 2002 5.20 3.82 April 2002 5.32 3.77 May 2002 5.48 3.79 June 2002 5.94 3.75 July 2002 6.78 3.73 August 2002 6.42 3.49 September 2002 7.08 3.19 October 2002 6.78 3.48 November 2002 6.58 3.47 December 2002 6.72 3.43 January 2003 6.48 3.40 February 2003 7.07 3.25 March 2003 6.75 3.25 April 2003 6.60 3.32 May 2003 6.23 2.93 June 2003 5.93 2.79 July 2003 6.01 3.34 August 2003 5.96 3.78 September 2003 5.69 3.61 October 2003 5.64 3.62 November 2003 5.75 3.53 December 2003 5.48 3.45 January 2004 5.29 3.38 February 2004 5.25 3.29 March 2004 5.39 3.11 April 2004 5.40 3.49 May 2004 5.63 3.69 June 2004 5.47 3.65 July 2004 5.68 3.47 August 2004 5.78 3.33 September 2004 5.67 3.16 October 2004 5.83 3.09 Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield November 2004 Period 5.49 3.08 December 2004 5.46 3.03 January 2005 5.65 2.85 February 2005 5.58 2.58 March 2005 5.69 2.79 April 2005 5.89 2.62 May 2005 5.80 2.42 June 2005 5.77 2.16 July 2005 5.72 2.22 August 2005 5.86 2.25 September 2005 5.89 2.28 October 2005 6.21 2.45 November 2005 5.96 2.51 December 2005 5.91 2.41 January 2006 5.91 2.31 February 2006 5.96 2.31 March 2006 5.96 2.51 April 2006 6.00 2.89 May 2006 6.31 3.02 June 2006 6.41 2.91 July 2006 6.53 2.86 August 2006 6.36 2.72 September 2006 6.33 2.56 October 2006 6.18 2.57 November 2006 6.10 2.40 December 2006 6.05 2.42 January 2007 6.11 2.71 February 2007 6.05 2.71 March 2007 6.39 2.63 April 2007 6.10 2.72 May 2007 5.99 2.75 June 2007 6.01 3.01 July 2007 5.95 2.89 August 2007 6.62 2.82 September 2007 6.22 2.66 October 2007 6.19 2.64 November 2007 6.80 2.42 December 2007 6.66 2.48 January 2008 7.35 2.33 February 2008 7.32 2.62 Period Trend E/P* Real Treasury perpetuity yield March 2008 7.48 2.61 April 2008 7.32 2.60 May 2008 7.05 2.68 June 2008 7.50 2.72 July 2008 8.02 2.64 August 2008 7.85 2.59 September 2008 8.44 2.30 October 2008 10.78 2.13 November 2008 13.55 1.98 December 2008 11.45 0.87 26 January 2009+ 11.43 1.23 + Approximate values. Denotes latest observation using daily interest rates and stock prices data from I/B/E/S. Return to table * Estimated using analyst year-ahead earnings from I/B/E/S. Return to table Middle-right panel Estimated Equity Premium* Monthly Period Percentage points January 2005 2.80 February 2005 3.01 March 2005 2.90 April 2005 3.27 May 2005 3.38 June 2005 3.61 July 2005 3.49 August 2005 3.61 September 2005 3.61 October 2005 3.76 November 2005 3.46 December 2005 3.49 January 2006 3.60 February 2006 3.65 March 2006 3.46 April 2006 3.11 May 2006 3.29 June 2006 3.50 July 2006 3.67 August 2006 3.63 September 2006 3.77 October 2006 3.60 Period Percentage points November 2006 3.69 December 2006 3.63 January 2007 3.40 February 2007 3.34 March 2007 3.76 April 2007 3.38 May 2007 3.24 June 2007 3.00 July 2007 3.06 August 2007 3.80 September 2007 3.55 October 2007 3.55 November 2007 4.38 December 2007 4.18 January 2008 5.01 February 2008 4.70 March 2008 4.87 April 2008 4.72 May 2008 4.36 June 2008 4.78 July 2008 5.38 August 2008 5.26 September 2008 6.13 October 2008 8.65 November 2008 11.57 December 2008 10.58 * Trend E/P ratio less real Treasury perpetuity yield. Return to text Bottom-left panel Investment-Grade Corporate Bond Yield Daily Date Percent 1 January 2002 ND 2 January 2002 7.61 3 January 2002 7.56 4 January 2002 7.56 7 January 2002 7.48 8 January 2002 7.49 9 January 2002 7.48 10 January 2002 7.38 Date Percent 11 January 2002 7.32 14 January 2002 7.32 15 January 2002 7.29 16 January 2002 7.31 17 January 2002 7.40 18 January 2002 7.36 21 January 2002 ND 22 January 2002 7.36 23 January 2002 7.45 24 January 2002 7.45 25 January 2002 7.47 28 January 2002 7.47 29 January 2002 7.38 30 January 2002 7.43 31 January 2002 7.49 1 February 2002 7.45 4 February 2002 7.45 5 February 2002 7.52 6 February 2002 7.58 7 February 2002 7.62 8 February 2002 7.53 11 February 2002 7.57 12 February 2002 7.62 13 February 2002 7.63 14 February 2002 7.57 15 February 2002 7.50 18 February 2002 ND 19 February 2002 7.56 20 February 2002 7.57 21 February 2002 7.56 22 February 2002 7.53 25 February 2002 7.52 26 February 2002 7.55 27 February 2002 7.46 28 February 2002 7.48 1 March 2002 7.58 4 March 2002 7.58 5 March 2002 7.58 6 March 2002 7.60 7 March 2002 7.72 Date Percent 8 March 2002 7.79 11 March 2002 7.80 12 March 2002 7.79 13 March 2002 7.78 14 March 2002 7.90 15 March 2002 7.85 18 March 2002 7.83 19 March 2002 7.84 20 March 2002 7.90 21 March 2002 7.88 22 March 2002 7.89 25 March 2002 7.89 26 March 2002 7.83 27 March 2002 7.83 28 March 2002 7.89 29 March 2002 ND 1 April 2002 7.88 2 April 2002 7.82 3 April 2002 7.76 4 April 2002 7.75 5 April 2002 7.69 8 April 2002 7.72 9 April 2002 7.69 10 April 2002 7.72 11 April 2002 7.71 12 April 2002 7.67 15 April 2002 7.65 16 April 2002 7.68 17 April 2002 7.71 18 April 2002 7.69 19 April 2002 7.67 22 April 2002 7.66 23 April 2002 7.66 24 April 2002 7.60 25 April 2002 7.61 26 April 2002 7.58 29 April 2002 7.63 30 April 2002 7.63 1 May 2002 7.66 2 May 2002 7.70 Date Percent 3 May 2002 7.67 6 May 2002 7.69 7 May 2002 7.71 8 May 2002 7.83 9 May 2002 7.77 10 May 2002 7.74 13 May 2002 7.82 14 May 2002 7.89 15 May 2002 7.84 16 May 2002 7.82 17 May 2002 7.83 20 May 2002 7.82 21 May 2002 7.77 22 May 2002 7.70 23 May 2002 7.74 24 May 2002 7.73 27 May 2002 ND 28 May 2002 7.68 29 May 2002 7.61 30 May 2002 7.55 31 May 2002 7.42 3 June 2002 7.41 4 June 2002 7.39 5 June 2002 7.42 6 June 2002 7.40 7 June 2002 7.45 10 June 2002 7.43 11 June 2002 7.40 12 June 2002 7.38 13 June 2002 7.35 14 June 2002 7.26 17 June 2002 7.33 18 June 2002 7.33 19 June 2002 7.25 20 June 2002 7.38 21 June 2002 7.34 24 June 2002 7.46 25 June 2002 7.44 26 June 2002 7.44 27 June 2002 7.54 Date Percent 28 June 2002 7.59 1 July 2002 7.54 2 July 2002 7.55 3 July 2002 7.54 4 July 2002 ND 5 July 2002 7.64 8 July 2002 7.56 9 July 2002 7.47 10 July 2002 7.38 11 July 2002 7.41 12 July 2002 7.37 15 July 2002 7.48 16 July 2002 7.56 17 July 2002 7.47 18 July 2002 7.45 19 July 2002 7.44 22 July 2002 7.38 23 July 2002 7.41 24 July 2002 7.51 25 July 2002 7.49 26 July 2002 7.48 29 July 2002 7.68 30 July 2002 7.73 31 July 2002 7.52 1 August 2002 7.45 2 August 2002 7.34 5 August 2002 7.40 6 August 2002 7.53 7 August 2002 7.42 8 August 2002 7.49 9 August 2002 7.42 12 August 2002 7.38 13 August 2002 7.31 14 August 2002 7.29 15 August 2002 7.39 16 August 2002 7.50 19 August 2002 7.47 20 August 2002 7.26 21 August 2002 7.26 22 August 2002 7.31 Date Percent 23 August 2002 7.22 26 August 2002 7.19 27 August 2002 7.26 28 August 2002 7.19 29 August 2002 7.16 30 August 2002 7.14 2 September 2002 ND 3 September 2002 7.05 4 September 2002 7.01 5 September 2002 6.99 6 September 2002 7.10 9 September 2002 7.11 10 September 2002 7.05 11 September 2002 7.16 12 September 2002 7.05 13 September 2002 6.98 16 September 2002 6.96 17 September 2002 6.96 18 September 2002 6.92 19 September 2002 6.87 20 September 2002 6.89 23 September 2002 6.83 24 September 2002 6.86 25 September 2002 6.95 26 September 2002 6.98 27 September 2002 6.91 30 September 2002 6.83 1 October 2002 6.94 2 October 2002 6.91 3 October 2002 6.93 4 October 2002 6.91 7 October 2002 6.93 8 October 2002 7.03 9 October 2002 7.06 10 October 2002 7.18 11 October 2002 7.29 14 October 2002 ND 15 October 2002 7.42 16 October 2002 7.47 17 October 2002 7.58 Date Percent 18 October 2002 7.59 21 October 2002 7.72 22 October 2002 7.72 23 October 2002 7.69 24 October 2002 7.59 25 October 2002 7.52 28 October 2002 7.46 29 October 2002 7.32 30 October 2002 7.30 31 October 2002 7.23 1 November 2002 7.27 4 November 2002 7.29 5 November 2002 7.26 6 November 2002 7.17 7 November 2002 6.98 8 November 2002 6.95 11 November 2002 6.95 12 November 2002 7.00 13 November 2002 6.99 14 November 2002 7.10 15 November 2002 7.08 18 November 2002 6.94 19 November 2002 6.91 20 November 2002 6.98 21 November 2002 7.00 22 November 2002 7.01 25 November 2002 7.03 26 November 2002 6.94 27 November 2002 7.10 28 November 2002 7.10 29 November 2002 7.06 2 December 2002 6.96 3 December 2002 7.01 4 December 2002 6.97 5 December 2002 6.91 6 December 2002 6.90 9 December 2002 6.88 10 December 2002 6.88 11 December 2002 6.81 12 December 2002 6.80 Date Percent 13 December 2002 6.86 16 December 2002 6.89 17 December 2002 6.82 18 December 2002 6.73 19 December 2002 6.63 20 December 2002 6.63 23 December 2002 6.64 24 December 2002 6.60 25 December 2002 ND 26 December 2002 6.59 27 December 2002 6.50 30 December 2002 6.47 31 December 2002 6.50 1 January 2003 ND 2 January 2003 6.70 3 January 2003 6.67 6 January 2003 6.68 7 January 2003 6.61 8 January 2003 6.57 9 January 2003 6.73 10 January 2003 6.69 13 January 2003 6.63 14 January 2003 6.60 15 January 2003 6.62 16 January 2003 6.65 17 January 2003 6.62 20 January 2003 6.65 21 January 2003 6.62 22 January 2003 6.58 23 January 2003 6.60 24 January 2003 6.56 27 January 2003 6.63 28 January 2003 6.63 29 January 2003 6.68 30 January 2003 6.62 31 January 2003 6.59 3 February 2003 6.58 4 February 2003 6.54 5 February 2003 6.60 6 February 2003 6.55 Date Percent 7 February 2003 6.51 10 February 2003 6.57 11 February 2003 6.55 12 February 2003 6.50 13 February 2003 6.47 14 February 2003 6.55 17 February 2003 ND 18 February 2003 6.55 19 February 2003 6.46 20 February 2003 6.42 21 February 2003 6.46 24 February 2003 6.40 25 February 2003 6.39 26 February 2003 6.34 27 February 2003 6.32 28 February 2003 6.23 3 March 2003 6.16 4 March 2003 6.14 5 March 2003 6.15 6 March 2003 6.17 7 March 2003 6.18 10 March 2003 6.14 11 March 2003 6.18 12 March 2003 6.20 13 March 2003 6.30 14 March 2003 6.26 17 March 2003 6.37 18 March 2003 6.42 19 March 2003 6.47 20 March 2003 6.50 21 March 2003 6.56 24 March 2003 6.44 25 March 2003 6.44 26 March 2003 6.37 27 March 2003 6.34 28 March 2003 6.28 31 March 2003 6.18 1 April 2003 6.16 2 April 2003 6.21 3 April 2003 6.19 Date Percent 4 April 2003 6.24 7 April 2003 6.27 8 April 2003 6.22 9 April 2003 6.20 10 April 2003 6.23 11 April 2003 6.25 14 April 2003 6.30 15 April 2003 6.22 16 April 2003 6.16 17 April 2003 6.17 18 April 2003 ND 21 April 2003 6.17 22 April 2003 6.14 23 April 2003 6.10 24 April 2003 5.99 25 April 2003 5.96 28 April 2003 5.97 29 April 2003 5.99 30 April 2003 5.92 1 May 2003 5.90 2 May 2003 5.93 5 May 2003 5.89 6 May 2003 5.65 7 May 2003 5.63 8 May 2003 5.61 9 May 2003 5.62 12 May 2003 5.58 13 May 2003 5.57 14 May 2003 5.52 15 May 2003 5.55 16 May 2003 5.46 19 May 2003 5.48 20 May 2003 5.42 21 May 2003 5.46 22 May 2003 5.38 23 May 2003 5.36 26 May 2003 ND 27 May 2003 5.43 28 May 2003 5.44 29 May 2003 5.36 Date Percent 30 May 2003 5.36 2 June 2003 5.44 3 June 2003 5.33 4 June 2003 5.30 5 June 2003 5.32 6 June 2003 5.33 9 June 2003 5.26 10 June 2003 5.16 11 June 2003 5.16 12 June 2003 5.13 13 June 2003 5.06 16 June 2003 5.09 17 June 2003 5.14 18 June 2003 5.24 19 June 2003 5.24 20 June 2003 5.29 23 June 2003 5.23 24 June 2003 5.18 25 June 2003 5.26 26 June 2003 5.43 27 June 2003 5.47 30 June 2003 5.41 1 July 2003 5.46 2 July 2003 5.44 3 July 2003 5.55 4 July 2003 ND 7 July 2003 5.59 8 July 2003 5.58 9 July 2003 5.56 10 July 2003 5.53 11 July 2003 5.50 14 July 2003 5.56 15 July 2003 5.74 16 July 2003 5.76 17 July 2003 5.75 18 July 2003 5.78 21 July 2003 5.97 22 July 2003 5.95 23 July 2003 5.90 24 July 2003 5.96 Date Percent 25 July 2003 5.98 28 July 2003 6.11 29 July 2003 6.22 30 July 2003 6.17 31 July 2003 6.34 1 August 2003 6.31 4 August 2003 6.23 5 August 2003 6.33 6 August 2003 6.20 7 August 2003 6.15 8 August 2003 6.12 11 August 2003 6.21 12 August 2003 6.21 13 August 2003 6.42 14 August 2003 6.45 15 August 2003 6.40 18 August 2003 6.37 19 August 2003 6.25 20 August 2003 6.29 21 August 2003 6.33 22 August 2003 6.28 25 August 2003 6.35 26 August 2003 6.31 27 August 2003 6.35 28 August 2003 6.23 29 August 2003 6.25 1 September 2003 ND 2 September 2003 6.35 3 September 2003 6.34 4 September 2003 6.27 5 September 2003 6.14 8 September 2003 6.17 9 September 2003 6.14 10 September 2003 6.04 11 September 2003 6.09 12 September 2003 6.02 15 September 2003 5.99 16 September 2003 6.03 17 September 2003 5.90 18 September 2003 5.88 Date Percent 19 September 2003 5.85 22 September 2003 5.94 23 September 2003 5.93 24 September 2003 5.85 25 September 2003 5.80 26 September 2003 5.73 29 September 2003 5.78 30 September 2003 5.66 1 October 2003 5.66 2 October 2003 5.74 3 October 2003 5.90 6 October 2003 5.86 7 October 2003 5.95 8 October 2003 5.94 9 October 2003 5.98 10 October 2003 5.92 13 October 2003 ND 14 October 2003 6.02 15 October 2003 6.03 16 October 2003 6.05 17 October 2003 5.98 20 October 2003 5.97 21 October 2003 5.97 22 October 2003 5.91 23 October 2003 5.96 24 October 2003 5.84 27 October 2003 5.87 28 October 2003 5.82 29 October 2003 5.91 30 October 2003 5.94 31 October 2003 5.91 3 November 2003 5.96 4 November 2003 5.90 5 November 2003 5.95 6 November 2003 6.02 7 November 2003 6.04 10 November 2003 6.05 11 November 2003 ND 12 November 2003 5.98 13 November 2003 5.83 Date Percent 14 November 2003 5.76 17 November 2003 5.73 18 November 2003 5.71 19 November 2003 5.78 20 November 2003 5.71 21 November 2003 5.70 24 November 2003 5.78 25 November 2003 5.73 26 November 2003 5.79 27 November 2003 ND 28 November 2003 5.86 1 December 2003 5.92 2 December 2003 5.90 3 December 2003 5.91 4 December 2003 5.85 5 December 2003 5.71 8 December 2003 5.78 9 December 2003 5.84 10 December 2003 5.81 11 December 2003 5.75 12 December 2003 5.75 15 December 2003 5.77 16 December 2003 5.75 17 December 2003 5.69 18 December 2003 5.63 19 December 2003 5.61 22 December 2003 5.65 23 December 2003 5.74 24 December 2003 5.67 25 December 2003 ND 26 December 2003 5.62 29 December 2003 5.69 30 December 2003 5.74 31 December 2003 5.71 1 January 2004 ND 2 January 2004 5.81 5 January 2004 5.79 6 January 2004 5.68 7 January 2004 5.65 8 January 2004 5.64 Date Percent 9 January 2004 5.51 12 January 2004 5.50 13 January 2004 5.45 14 January 2004 5.40 15 January 2004 5.39 16 January 2004 5.43 19 January 2004 ND 20 January 2004 5.47 21 January 2004 5.45 22 January 2004 5.38 23 January 2004 5.48 26 January 2004 5.56 27 January 2004 5.50 28 January 2004 5.61 29 January 2004 5.63 30 January 2004 5.58 2 February 2004 5.61 3 February 2004 5.55 4 February 2004 5.59 5 February 2004 5.64 6 February 2004 5.55 9 February 2004 5.52 10 February 2004 5.56 11 February 2004 5.47 12 February 2004 5.50 13 February 2004 5.47 16 February 2004 ND 17 February 2004 5.48 18 February 2004 5.49 19 February 2004 5.50 20 February 2004 5.55 23 February 2004 5.51 24 February 2004 5.50 25 February 2004 5.50 26 February 2004 5.52 27 February 2004 5.46 1 March 2004 5.45 2 March 2004 5.52 3 March 2004 5.52 4 March 2004 5.49 Date Percent 5 March 2004 5.31 8 March 2004 5.25 9 March 2004 5.20 10 March 2004 5.22 11 March 2004 5.25 12 March 2004 5.26 15 March 2004 5.27 16 March 2004 5.21 17 March 2004 5.20 18 March 2004 5.26 19 March 2004 5.29 22 March 2004 5.24 23 March 2004 5.23 24 March 2004 5.25 25 March 2004 5.27 26 March 2004 5.36 29 March 2004 5.40 30 March 2004 5.40 31 March 2004 5.34 1 April 2004 5.40 2 April 2004 5.62 5 April 2004 5.69 6 April 2004 5.64 7 April 2004 5.63 8 April 2004 5.66 9 April 2004 ND 12 April 2004 5.68 13 April 2004 5.78 14 April 2004 5.81 15 April 2004 5.85 16 April 2004 5.81 19 April 2004 5.82 20 April 2004 5.87 21 April 2004 5.88 22 April 2004 5.83 23 April 2004 5.91 26 April 2004 5.88 27 April 2004 5.86 28 April 2004 5.94 29 April 2004 6.01 Date Percent 30 April 2004 5.96 3 May 2004 5.97 4 May 2004 6.02 5 May 2004 6.06 6 May 2004 6.12 7 May 2004 6.29 10 May 2004 6.32 11 May 2004 6.31 12 May 2004 6.34 13 May 2004 6.40 14 May 2004 6.33 17 May 2004 6.26 18 May 2004 6.28 19 May 2004 6.33 20 May 2004 6.26 21 May 2004 6.30 24 May 2004 6.28 25 May 2004 6.27 26 May 2004 6.21 27 May 2004 6.12 28 May 2004 6.19 31 May 2004 ND 1 June 2004 6.23 2 June 2004 6.25 3 June 2004 6.25 4 June 2004 6.31 7 June 2004 6.29 8 June 2004 6.28 9 June 2004 6.32 10 June 2004 6.30 11 June 2004 ND 14 June 2004 6.38 15 June 2004 6.19 16 June 2004 6.25 17 June 2004 6.21 18 June 2004 6.22 21 June 2004 6.21 22 June 2004 6.22 23 June 2004 6.21 24 June 2004 6.15 Date Percent 25 June 2004 6.16 28 June 2004 6.25 29 June 2004 6.21 30 June 2004 6.13 1 July 2004 6.09 2 July 2004 5.98 5 July 2004 ND 6 July 2004 6.01 7 July 2004 6.00 8 July 2004 6.00 9 July 2004 6.00 12 July 2004 5.97 13 July 2004 6.01 14 July 2004 6.01 15 July 2004 6.00 16 July 2004 5.87 19 July 2004 5.86 20 July 2004 5.95 21 July 2004 5.99 22 July 2004 5.95 23 July 2004 5.93 26 July 2004 5.97 27 July 2004 6.10 28 July 2004 6.08 29 July 2004 6.07 30 July 2004 5.96 2 August 2004 5.99 3 August 2004 5.95 4 August 2004 5.96 5 August 2004 5.94 6 August 2004 5.76 9 August 2004 5.77 10 August 2004 5.82 11 August 2004 5.81 12 August 2004 5.78 13 August 2004 5.73 16 August 2004 5.78 17 August 2004 5.72 18 August 2004 5.74 19 August 2004 5.72 Date Percent 20 August 2004 5.74 23 August 2004 5.78 24 August 2004 5.78 25 August 2004 5.75 26 August 2004 5.71 27 August 2004 5.71 30 August 2004 5.66 31 August 2004 5.60 1 September 2004 5.59 2 September 2004 5.66 3 September 2004 5.75 6 September 2004 ND 7 September 2004 5.70 8 September 2004 5.61 9 September 2004 5.64 10 September 2004 5.61 13 September 2004 5.58 14 September 2004 5.56 15 September 2004 5.59 16 September 2004 5.48 17 September 2004 5.55 20 September 2004 5.46 21 September 2004 5.45 22 September 2004 5.40 23 September 2004 5.44 24 September 2004 5.44 27 September 2004 5.40 28 September 2004 5.42 29 September 2004 5.49 30 September 2004 5.51 1 October 2004 5.58 4 October 2004 5.56 5 October 2004 5.55 6 October 2004 5.61 7 October 2004 5.62 8 October 2004 5.50 11 October 2004 5.51 12 October 2004 5.48 13 October 2004 5.44 14 October 2004 5.38 Date Percent 15 October 2004 5.42 18 October 2004 5.42 19 October 2004 5.42 20 October 2004 5.37 21 October 2004 5.38 22 October 2004 5.37 25 October 2004 5.36 26 October 2004 5.35 27 October 2004 5.45 28 October 2004 5.43 29 October 2004 5.36 1 November 2004 5.43 2 November 2004 5.41 3 November 2004 5.39 4 November 2004 5.38 5 November 2004 5.48 8 November 2004 5.51 9 November 2004 5.51 10 November 2004 5.53 11 November 2004 5.53 12 November 2004 5.47 15 November 2004 5.46 16 November 2004 5.47 17 November 2004 5.40 18 November 2004 5.36 19 November 2004 5.44 22 November 2004 5.41 23 November 2004 5.42 24 November 2004 5.42 25 November 2004 5.42 26 November 2004 5.47 29 November 2004 5.56 30 November 2004 5.58 1 December 2004 5.60 2 December 2004 5.61 3 December 2004 5.48 6 December 2004 5.45 7 December 2004 5.43 8 December 2004 5.32 9 December 2004 5.35 Date Percent 10 December 2004 5.35 13 December 2004 5.34 14 December 2004 5.31 15 December 2004 5.26 16 December 2004 5.37 17 December 2004 5.38 20 December 2004 5.37 21 December 2004 5.34 22 December 2004 5.37 23 December 2004 5.39 24 December 2004 ND 27 December 2004 5.46 28 December 2004 5.46 29 December 2004 5.49 30 December 2004 5.43 31 December 2004 5.39 3 January 2005 5.39 4 January 2005 5.44 5 January 2005 5.44 6 January 2005 5.45 7 January 2005 5.46 10 January 2005 5.45 11 January 2005 5.42 12 January 2005 5.41 13 January 2005 5.36 14 January 2005 5.39 17 January 2005 ND 18 January 2005 5.37 19 January 2005 5.36 20 January 2005 5.35 21 January 2005 5.33 24 January 2005 5.31 25 January 2005 5.37 26 January 2005 5.36 27 January 2005 5.38 28 January 2005 5.31 31 January 2005 5.29 1 February 2005 5.29 2 February 2005 5.28 3 February 2005 5.30 Date Percent 4 February 2005 5.19 7 February 2005 5.17 8 February 2005 5.15 9 February 2005 5.10 10 February 2005 5.19 11 February 2005 5.21 14 February 2005 5.18 15 February 2005 5.21 16 February 2005 5.27 17 February 2005 5.28 18 February 2005 5.35 21 February 2005 ND 22 February 2005 5.39 23 February 2005 5.37 24 February 2005 5.37 25 February 2005 5.36 28 February 2005 5.45 1 March 2005 5.45 2 March 2005 5.47 3 March 2005 5.47 4 March 2005 5.38 7 March 2005 5.37 8 March 2005 5.45 9 March 2005 5.58 10 March 2005 5.53 11 March 2005 5.61 14 March 2005 5.60 15 March 2005 5.63 16 March 2005 5.63 17 March 2005 5.61 18 March 2005 5.64 21 March 2005 5.67 22 March 2005 5.76 23 March 2005 5.79 24 March 2005 5.77 25 March 2005 ND 28 March 2005 5.82 29 March 2005 5.80 30 March 2005 5.78 31 March 2005 5.73 Date Percent 1 April 2005 5.69 4 April 2005 5.72 5 April 2005 5.73 6 April 2005 5.68 7 April 2005 5.71 8 April 2005 5.72 11 April 2005 5.70 12 April 2005 5.61 13 April 2005 5.63 14 April 2005 5.64 15 April 2005 5.58 18 April 2005 5.57 19 April 2005 5.52 20 April 2005 5.52 21 April 2005 5.60 22 April 2005 5.54 25 April 2005 5.53 26 April 2005 5.55 27 April 2005 5.52 28 April 2005 5.47 29 April 2005 5.52 2 May 2005 5.52 3 May 2005 5.54 4 May 2005 5.52 5 May 2005 5.45 6 May 2005 5.56 9 May 2005 5.57 10 May 2005 5.52 11 May 2005 5.51 12 May 2005 5.50 13 May 2005 5.49 16 May 2005 5.49 17 May 2005 5.50 18 May 2005 5.46 19 May 2005 5.49 20 May 2005 5.49 23 May 2005 5.42 24 May 2005 5.39 25 May 2005 5.42 26 May 2005 5.41 Date Percent 27 May 2005 5.39 30 May 2005 ND 31 May 2005 5.32 1 June 2005 5.22 2 June 2005 5.18 3 June 2005 5.26 6 June 2005 5.24 7 June 2005 5.19 8 June 2005 5.22 9 June 2005 5.27 10 June 2005 5.35 13 June 2005 5.39 14 June 2005 5.43 15 June 2005 5.43 16 June 2005 5.39 17 June 2005 5.39 20 June 2005 5.41 21 June 2005 5.36 22 June 2005 5.27 23 June 2005 5.28 24 June 2005 5.24 27 June 2005 5.23 28 June 2005 5.29 29 June 2005 5.31 30 June 2005 5.26 1 July 2005 5.35 4 July 2005 ND 5 July 2005 5.42 6 July 2005 5.40 7 July 2005 5.35 8 July 2005 5.42 11 July 2005 5.40 12 July 2005 5.43 13 July 2005 5.46 14 July 2005 5.46 15 July 2005 5.45 18 July 2005 5.49 19 July 2005 5.46 20 July 2005 5.43 21 July 2005 5.54 Date Percent 22 July 2005 5.48 25 July 2005 5.50 26 July 2005 5.49 27 July 2005 5.50 28 July 2005 5.43 29 July 2005 5.51 1 August 2005 5.53 2 August 2005 5.56 3 August 2005 5.52 4 August 2005 5.55 5 August 2005 5.62 8 August 2005 5.65 9 August 2005 5.63 10 August 2005 5.63 11 August 2005 5.58 12 August 2005 5.51 15 August 2005 5.52 16 August 2005 5.49 17 August 2005 5.55 18 August 2005 5.48 19 August 2005 5.47 22 August 2005 5.47 23 August 2005 5.45 24 August 2005 5.42 25 August 2005 5.40 26 August 2005 5.43 29 August 2005 5.41 30 August 2005 5.34 31 August 2005 5.28 1 September 2005 5.30 2 September 2005 5.31 5 September 2005 ND 6 September 2005 5.37 7 September 2005 5.42 8 September 2005 5.43 9 September 2005 5.42 12 September 2005 5.46 13 September 2005 5.43 14 September 2005 5.46 15 September 2005 5.52 Date Percent 16 September 2005 5.56 19 September 2005 5.56 20 September 2005 5.55 21 September 2005 5.50 22 September 2005 5.50 23 September 2005 5.57 26 September 2005 5.61 27 September 2005 5.62 28 September 2005 5.58 29 September 2005 5.61 30 September 2005 5.64 3 October 2005 5.71 4 October 2005 5.69 5 October 2005 5.67 6 October 2005 5.69 7 October 2005 5.68 10 October 2005 ND 11 October 2005 5.71 12 October 2005 5.79 13 October 2005 5.84 14 October 2005 5.86 17 October 2005 5.86 18 October 2005 5.84 19 October 2005 5.83 20 October 2005 5.83 21 October 2005 5.76 24 October 2005 5.82 25 October 2005 5.88 26 October 2005 5.97 27 October 2005 5.95 28 October 2005 5.96 31 October 2005 5.95 1 November 2005 5.97 2 November 2005 6.00 3 November 2005 6.03 4 November 2005 6.05 7 November 2005 6.03 8 November 2005 5.95 9 November 2005 6.03 10 November 2005 5.96 Date Percent 11 November 2005 ND 14 November 2005 6.00 15 November 2005 5.96 16 November 2005 5.90 17 November 2005 5.88 18 November 2005 5.92 21 November 2005 5.88 22 November 2005 5.86 23 November 2005 5.90 24 November 2005 ND 25 November 2005 5.86 28 November 2005 5.83 29 November 2005 5.90 30 November 2005 5.91 1 December 2005 5.94 2 December 2005 5.94 5 December 2005 5.99 6 December 2005 5.93 7 December 2005 5.95 8 December 2005 5.90 9 December 2005 5.97 12 December 2005 5.98 13 December 2005 5.97 14 December 2005 5.88 15 December 2005 5.90 16 December 2005 5.87 19 December 2005 5.87 20 December 2005 5.89 21 December 2005 5.91 22 December 2005 5.86 23 December 2005 5.80 26 December 2005 ND 27 December 2005 5.76 28 December 2005 5.80 29 December 2005 5.80 30 December 2005 5.82 2 January 2006 ND 3 January 2006 5.79 4 January 2006 5.78 5 January 2006 5.78 Date Percent 6 January 2006 5.80 9 January 2006 5.80 10 January 2006 5.85 11 January 2006 5.88 12 January 2006 5.84 13 January 2006 5.78 16 January 2006 ND 17 January 2006 5.76 18 January 2006 5.77 19 January 2006 5.81 20 January 2006 5.78 23 January 2006 5.78 24 January 2006 5.81 25 January 2006 5.89 26 January 2006 5.93 27 January 2006 5.90 30 January 2006 5.93 31 January 2006 5.92 1 February 2006 5.95 2 February 2006 5.94 3 February 2006 5.91 6 February 2006 5.92 7 February 2006 5.95 8 February 2006 5.97 9 February 2006 5.95 10 February 2006 5.99 13 February 2006 5.98 14 February 2006 6.01 15 February 2006 5.99 16 February 2006 5.98 17 February 2006 5.92 20 February 2006 ND 21 February 2006 5.94 22 February 2006 5.90 23 February 2006 5.93 24 February 2006 5.94 27 February 2006 5.96 28 February 2006 5.91 1 March 2006 5.96 2 March 2006 6.01 Date Percent 3 March 2006 6.06 6 March 2006 6.11 7 March 2006 6.12 8 March 2006 6.12 9 March 2006 6.11 10 March 2006 6.14 13 March 2006 6.16 14 March 2006 6.08 15 March 2006 6.12 16 March 2006 6.03 17 March 2006 6.05 20 March 2006 6.04 21 March 2006 6.09 22 March 2006 6.08 23 March 2006 6.12 24 March 2006 6.06 27 March 2006 6.09 28 March 2006 6.17 29 March 2006 6.20 30 March 2006 6.25 31 March 2006 6.25 3 April 2006 6.27 4 April 2006 6.26 5 April 2006 6.23 6 April 2006 6.29 7 April 2006 6.36 10 April 2006 6.36 11 April 2006 6.33 12 April 2006 6.37 13 April 2006 6.43 14 April 2006 ND 17 April 2006 6.40 18 April 2006 6.37 19 April 2006 6.42 20 April 2006 6.42 21 April 2006 6.39 24 April 2006 6.36 25 April 2006 6.44 26 April 2006 6.47 27 April 2006 6.44 Date Percent 28 April 2006 6.42 1 May 2006 6.47 2 May 2006 6.45 3 May 2006 6.48 4 May 2006 6.49 5 May 2006 6.44 8 May 2006 6.45 9 May 2006 6.45 10 May 2006 6.45 11 May 2006 6.49 12 May 2006 6.54 15 May 2006 6.50 16 May 2006 6.47 17 May 2006 6.53 18 May 2006 6.46 19 May 2006 6.43 22 May 2006 6.43 23 May 2006 6.46 24 May 2006 6.44 25 May 2006 6.48 26 May 2006 6.45 29 May 2006 ND 30 May 2006 6.50 31 May 2006 6.55 1 June 2006 6.54 2 June 2006 6.43 5 June 2006 6.46 6 June 2006 6.45 7 June 2006 6.48 8 June 2006 6.45 9 June 2006 6.44 12 June 2006 6.45 13 June 2006 6.44 14 June 2006 6.54 15 June 2006 6.59 16 June 2006 6.62 19 June 2006 6.64 20 June 2006 6.66 21 June 2006 6.67 22 June 2006 6.72 Date Percent 23 June 2006 6.75 26 June 2006 6.77 27 June 2006 6.74 28 June 2006 6.78 29 June 2006 6.74 30 June 2006 6.65 3 July 2006 6.69 4 July 2006 ND 5 July 2006 6.76 6 July 2006 6.72 7 July 2006 6.66 10 July 2006 6.66 11 July 2006 6.63 12 July 2006 6.63 13 July 2006 6.61 14 July 2006 6.61 17 July 2006 6.62 18 July 2006 6.67 19 July 2006 6.60 20 July 2006 6.57 21 July 2006 6.58 24 July 2006 6.58 25 July 2006 6.61 26 July 2006 6.57 27 July 2006 6.57 28 July 2006 6.52 31 July 2006 6.52 1 August 2006 6.51 2 August 2006 6.49 3 August 2006 6.47 4 August 2006 6.43 7 August 2006 6.45 8 August 2006 6.46 9 August 2006 6.47 10 August 2006 6.48 11 August 2006 6.51 14 August 2006 6.53 15 August 2006 6.46 16 August 2006 6.41 17 August 2006 6.40 Date Percent 18 August 2006 6.37 21 August 2006 6.36 22 August 2006 6.35 23 August 2006 6.36 24 August 2006 6.35 25 August 2006 6.34 28 August 2006 6.35 29 August 2006 6.34 30 August 2006 6.32 31 August 2006 6.29 1 September 2006 6.28 4 September 2006 ND 5 September 2006 6.33 6 September 2006 6.35 7 September 2006 6.34 8 September 2006 6.32 11 September 2006 6.35 12 September 2006 6.32 13 September 2006 6.31 14 September 2006 6.33 15 September 2006 6.34 18 September 2006 6.35 19 September 2006 6.28 20 September 2006 6.27 21 September 2006 6.21 22 September 2006 6.16 25 September 2006 6.12 26 September 2006 6.14 27 September 2006 6.15 28 September 2006 6.19 29 September 2006 6.20 2 October 2006 6.18 3 October 2006 6.17 4 October 2006 6.13 5 October 2006 6.17 6 October 2006 6.25 9 October 2006 ND 10 October 2006 6.30 11 October 2006 6.34 12 October 2006 6.33 Date Percent 13 October 2006 6.35 16 October 2006 6.33 17 October 2006 6.32 18 October 2006 6.29 19 October 2006 6.31 20 October 2006 6.30 23 October 2006 6.34 24 October 2006 6.34 25 October 2006 6.29 26 October 2006 6.23 27 October 2006 6.19 30 October 2006 6.18 31 October 2006 6.11 1 November 2006 6.06 2 November 2006 6.09 3 November 2006 6.19 6 November 2006 6.18 7 November 2006 6.13 8 November 2006 6.10 9 November 2006 6.09 10 November 2006 6.05 13 November 2006 6.06 14 November 2006 6.03 15 November 2006 6.08 16 November 2006 6.12 17 November 2006 6.07 20 November 2006 6.06 21 November 2006 6.04 22 November 2006 6.04 23 November 2006 ND 24 November 2006 6.02 27 November 2006 6.01 28 November 2006 5.99 29 November 2006 5.99 30 November 2006 5.95 1 December 2006 5.92 4 December 2006 5.92 5 December 2006 5.93 6 December 2006 5.96 7 December 2006 5.95 Date Percent 8 December 2006 6.02 11 December 2006 5.99 12 December 2006 5.97 13 December 2006 6.05 14 December 2006 6.07 15 December 2006 6.07 18 December 2006 6.06 19 December 2006 6.07 20 December 2006 6.07 21 December 2006 6.03 22 December 2006 6.09 25 December 2006 ND 26 December 2006 6.07 27 December 2006 6.12 28 December 2006 6.16 29 December 2006 6.17 1 January 2007 ND 2 January 2007 6.16 3 January 2007 6.13 4 January 2007 6.08 5 January 2007 6.11 8 January 2007 6.11 9 January 2007 6.11 10 January 2007 6.14 11 January 2007 6.19 12 January 2007 6.22 15 January 2007 ND 16 January 2007 6.20 17 January 2007 6.23 18 January 2007 6.19 19 January 2007 6.20 22 January 2007 6.19 23 January 2007 6.23 24 January 2007 6.23 25 January 2007 6.28 26 January 2007 6.29 29 January 2007 6.30 30 January 2007 6.29 31 January 2007 6.24 1 February 2007 6.25 Date Percent 2 February 2007 6.24 5 February 2007 6.21 6 February 2007 6.17 7 February 2007 6.14 8 February 2007 6.13 9 February 2007 6.18 12 February 2007 6.19 13 February 2007 6.20 14 February 2007 6.12 15 February 2007 6.09 16 February 2007 6.07 19 February 2007 ND 20 February 2007 6.06 21 February 2007 6.07 22 February 2007 6.10 23 February 2007 6.04 26 February 2007 6.00 27 February 2007 5.91 28 February 2007 5.95 1 March 2007 5.96 2 March 2007 5.93 5 March 2007 5.96 6 March 2007 5.97 7 March 2007 5.94 8 March 2007 5.94 9 March 2007 6.02 12 March 2007 5.98 13 March 2007 5.95 14 March 2007 5.98 15 March 2007 5.99 16 March 2007 6.00 19 March 2007 6.02 20 March 2007 6.01 21 March 2007 5.99 22 March 2007 6.06 23 March 2007 6.08 26 March 2007 6.06 27 March 2007 6.09 28 March 2007 6.10 29 March 2007 6.11 Date Percent 30 March 2007 6.13 2 April 2007 6.13 3 April 2007 6.15 4 April 2007 6.15 5 April 2007 6.17 6 April 2007 ND 9 April 2007 6.23 10 April 2007 6.20 11 April 2007 6.21 12 April 2007 6.21 13 April 2007 6.23 16 April 2007 6.20 17 April 2007 6.15 18 April 2007 6.11 19 April 2007 6.13 20 April 2007 6.13 23 April 2007 6.11 24 April 2007 6.08 25 April 2007 6.11 26 April 2007 6.14 27 April 2007 6.16 30 April 2007 6.08 1 May 2007 6.09 2 May 2007 6.09 3 May 2007 6.12 4 May 2007 6.09 7 May 2007 6.08 8 May 2007 6.07 9 May 2007 6.11 10 May 2007 6.09 11 May 2007 6.11 14 May 2007 6.12 15 May 2007 6.14 16 May 2007 6.14 17 May 2007 6.18 18 May 2007 6.23 21 May 2007 6.21 22 May 2007 6.25 23 May 2007 6.28 24 May 2007 6.28 Date Percent 25 May 2007 6.28 28 May 2007 ND 29 May 2007 6.30 30 May 2007 6.31 31 May 2007 6.33 1 June 2007 6.39 4 June 2007 6.36 5 June 2007 6.41 6 June 2007 6.41 7 June 2007 6.55 8 June 2007 6.58 11 June 2007 6.60 12 June 2007 6.71 13 June 2007 6.66 14 June 2007 6.67 15 June 2007 6.62 18 June 2007 6.60 19 June 2007 6.54 20 June 2007 6.58 21 June 2007 6.63 22 June 2007 6.61 25 June 2007 6.56 26 June 2007 6.59 27 June 2007 6.56 28 June 2007 6.60 29 June 2007 6.52 2 July 2007 6.49 3 July 2007 6.54 4 July 2007 ND 5 July 2007 6.64 6 July 2007 6.69 9 July 2007 6.65 10 July 2007 6.54 11 July 2007 6.60 12 July 2007 6.63 13 July 2007 6.62 16 July 2007 6.57 17 July 2007 6.60 18 July 2007 6.55 19 July 2007 6.58 Date Percent 20 July 2007 6.53 23 July 2007 6.55 24 July 2007 6.55 25 July 2007 6.53 26 July 2007 6.55 27 July 2007 6.60 30 July 2007 6.64 31 July 2007 6.60 1 August 2007 6.59 2 August 2007 6.58 3 August 2007 6.52 6 August 2007 6.57 7 August 2007 6.58 8 August 2007 6.67 9 August 2007 6.62 10 August 2007 6.62 13 August 2007 6.61 14 August 2007 6.58 15 August 2007 6.59 16 August 2007 6.52 17 August 2007 6.60 20 August 2007 6.57 21 August 2007 6.54 22 August 2007 6.56 23 August 2007 6.54 24 August 2007 6.55 27 August 2007 6.51 28 August 2007 6.47 29 August 2007 6.49 30 August 2007 6.46 31 August 2007 6.46 3 September 2007 ND 4 September 2007 6.48 5 September 2007 6.40 6 September 2007 6.44 7 September 2007 6.34 10 September 2007 6.31 11 September 2007 6.35 12 September 2007 6.40 13 September 2007 6.47 Date Percent 14 September 2007 6.45 17 September 2007 6.46 18 September 2007 6.47 19 September 2007 6.49 20 September 2007 6.60 21 September 2007 6.55 24 September 2007 6.53 25 September 2007 6.53 26 September 2007 6.53 27 September 2007 6.48 28 September 2007 6.48 1 October 2007 6.45 2 October 2007 6.43 3 October 2007 6.43 4 October 2007 6.40 5 October 2007 6.50 8 October 2007 ND 9 October 2007 6.49 10 October 2007 6.47 11 October 2007 6.46 12 October 2007 6.48 15 October 2007 6.46 16 October 2007 6.46 17 October 2007 6.36 18 October 2007 6.32 19 October 2007 6.24 22 October 2007 6.25 23 October 2007 6.26 24 October 2007 6.20 25 October 2007 6.23 26 October 2007 6.26 29 October 2007 6.25 30 October 2007 6.26 31 October 2007 6.37 1 November 2007 6.28 2 November 2007 6.24 5 November 2007 6.28 6 November 2007 6.32 7 November 2007 6.33 8 November 2007 6.31 Date Percent 9 November 2007 6.28 12 November 2007 ND 13 November 2007 6.33 14 November 2007 6.35 15 November 2007 6.28 16 November 2007 6.29 19 November 2007 6.25 20 November 2007 6.27 21 November 2007 6.24 22 November 2007 ND 23 November 2007 6.25 26 November 2007 6.10 27 November 2007 6.21 28 November 2007 6.30 29 November 2007 6.25 30 November 2007 6.28 3 December 2007 6.22 4 December 2007 6.23 5 December 2007 6.30 6 December 2007 6.41 7 December 2007 6.53 10 December 2007 6.55 11 December 2007 6.41 12 December 2007 6.48 13 December 2007 6.57 14 December 2007 6.62 17 December 2007 6.58 18 December 2007 6.50 19 December 2007 6.45 20 December 2007 6.41 21 December 2007 6.55 24 December 2007 6.58 25 December 2007 ND 26 December 2007 6.65 27 December 2007 6.57 28 December 2007 6.47 31 December 2007 6.42 1 January 2008 ND 2 January 2008 6.30 3 January 2008 6.32 Date Percent 4 January 2008 6.32 7 January 2008 6.31 8 January 2008 6.33 9 January 2008 6.33 10 January 2008 6.43 11 January 2008 6.37 14 January 2008 6.37 15 January 2008 6.30 16 January 2008 6.31 17 January 2008 6.29 18 January 2008 6.31 21 January 2008 ND 22 January 2008 6.23 23 January 2008 6.20 24 January 2008 6.31 25 January 2008 6.33 28 January 2008 6.33 29 January 2008 6.39 30 January 2008 6.47 31 January 2008 6.39 1 February 2008 6.36 4 February 2008 6.41 5 February 2008 6.36 6 February 2008 6.39 7 February 2008 6.52 8 February 2008 6.46 11 February 2008 6.45 12 February 2008 6.52 13 February 2008 6.55 14 February 2008 6.68 15 February 2008 6.65 18 February 2008 ND 19 February 2008 6.75 20 February 2008 6.78 21 February 2008 6.68 22 February 2008 6.71 25 February 2008 6.81 26 February 2008 6.79 27 February 2008 6.77 28 February 2008 6.66 Date Percent 29 February 2008 6.50 3 March 2008 6.53 4 March 2008 6.58 5 March 2008 6.72 6 March 2008 6.71 7 March 2008 6.67 10 March 2008 6.60 11 March 2008 6.77 12 March 2008 6.67 13 March 2008 6.75 14 March 2008 6.65 17 March 2008 6.61 18 March 2008 6.72 19 March 2008 6.65 20 March 2008 6.62 21 March 2008 ND 24 March 2008 6.80 25 March 2008 6.78 26 March 2008 6.78 27 March 2008 6.82 28 March 2008 6.77 31 March 2008 6.73 1 April 2008 6.84 2 April 2008 6.85 3 April 2008 6.85 4 April 2008 6.74 7 April 2008 6.77 8 April 2008 6.76 9 April 2008 6.67 10 April 2008 6.74 11 April 2008 6.68 14 April 2008 6.72 15 April 2008 6.78 16 April 2008 6.90 17 April 2008 6.90 18 April 2008 6.88 21 April 2008 6.84 22 April 2008 6.82 23 April 2008 6.81 24 April 2008 6.89 Date Percent 25 April 2008 6.92 28 April 2008 6.85 29 April 2008 6.82 30 April 2008 6.72 1 May 2008 6.69 2 May 2008 6.73 5 May 2008 6.87 6 May 2008 6.77 7 May 2008 6.74 8 May 2008 6.69 9 May 2008 6.65 12 May 2008 6.66 13 May 2008 6.78 14 May 2008 6.81 15 May 2008 6.73 16 May 2008 6.71 19 May 2008 6.70 20 May 2008 6.66 21 May 2008 6.70 22 May 2008 6.82 23 May 2008 6.74 26 May 2008 ND 27 May 2008 6.84 28 May 2008 6.91 29 May 2008 6.98 30 May 2008 6.94 2 June 2008 6.82 3 June 2008 6.74 4 June 2008 6.80 5 June 2008 6.87 6 June 2008 6.78 9 June 2008 6.82 10 June 2008 6.94 11 June 2008 6.92 12 June 2008 7.04 13 June 2008 7.08 16 June 2008 7.08 17 June 2008 7.07 18 June 2008 7.00 19 June 2008 7.06 Date Percent 20 June 2008 7.01 23 June 2008 7.04 24 June 2008 7.00 25 June 2008 7.02 26 June 2008 6.98 27 June 2008 6.96 30 June 2008 6.99 1 July 2008 7.02 2 July 2008 6.98 3 July 2008 7.01 4 July 2008 ND 7 July 2008 6.97 8 July 2008 6.95 9 July 2008 6.92 10 July 2008 6.92 11 July 2008 7.06 14 July 2008 7.00 15 July 2008 7.00 16 July 2008 7.11 17 July 2008 7.20 18 July 2008 7.24 21 July 2008 7.22 22 July 2008 7.25 23 July 2008 7.30 24 July 2008 7.18 25 July 2008 7.27 28 July 2008 7.18 29 July 2008 7.21 30 July 2008 7.22 31 July 2008 7.17 1 August 2008 7.15 4 August 2008 7.17 5 August 2008 7.21 6 August 2008 7.26 7 August 2008 7.14 8 August 2008 7.16 11 August 2008 7.22 12 August 2008 7.15 13 August 2008 7.18 14 August 2008 7.14 Date Percent 15 August 2008 7.10 18 August 2008 7.08 19 August 2008 7.11 20 August 2008 7.10 21 August 2008 7.15 22 August 2008 7.18 25 August 2008 7.11 26 August 2008 7.12 27 August 2008 7.11 28 August 2008 7.13 29 August 2008 7.16 1 September 2008 ND 2 September 2008 7.08 3 September 2008 7.05 4 September 2008 7.01 5 September 2008 7.04 8 September 2008 7.05 9 September 2008 7.01 10 September 2008 7.09 11 September 2008 7.10 12 September 2008 7.22 15 September 2008 7.11 16 September 2008 7.19 17 September 2008 7.20 18 September 2008 7.27 19 September 2008 7.57 22 September 2008 7.61 23 September 2008 7.63 24 September 2008 7.58 25 September 2008 7.76 26 September 2008 7.78 29 September 2008 7.66 30 September 2008 7.96 1 October 2008 7.96 2 October 2008 7.95 3 October 2008 8.02 6 October 2008 7.89 7 October 2008 8.07 8 October 2008 8.42 9 October 2008 8.63 Date Percent 10 October 2008 9.06 13 October 2008 ND 14 October 2008 9.30 15 October 2008 9.39 16 October 2008 9.46 17 October 2008 9.60 20 October 2008 9.61 21 October 2008 9.44 22 October 2008 9.36 23 October 2008 9.33 24 October 2008 9.54 27 October 2008 9.65 28 October 2008 9.77 29 October 2008 9.91 30 October 2008 9.97 31 October 2008 10.00 3 November 2008 9.93 4 November 2008 9.77 5 November 2008 9.72 6 November 2008 9.70 7 November 2008 9.75 10 November 2008 9.70 11 November 2008 ND 12 November 2008 9.59 13 November 2008 9.68 14 November 2008 9.63 17 November 2008 9.66 18 November 2008 9.65 19 November 2008 9.61 20 November 2008 9.53 21 November 2008 9.69 24 November 2008 9.92 25 November 2008 9.76 26 November 2008 9.70 27 November 2008 ND 28 November 2008 9.68 1 December 2008 9.43 2 December 2008 9.47 3 December 2008 9.54 4 December 2008 9.47 Date Percent 5 December 2008 9.59 8 December 2008 9.69 9 December 2008 9.64 10 December 2008 9.66 11 December 2008 9.66 12 December 2008 9.65 15 December 2008* 9.59 16 December 2008* 9.51 17 December 2008 9.29 18 December 2008 9.19 19 December 2008 9.21 22 December 2008 9.21 23 December 2008 9.23 24 December 2008 9.22 25 December 2008 ND 26 December 2008 9.15 29 December 2008 9.12 30 December 2008 9.09 31 December 2008 9.34 1 January 2009 ND 2 January 2009 9.51 5 January 2009 9.44 6 January 2009 9.30 7 January 2009 9.17 8 January 2009 9.08 9 January 2009 8.99 12 January 2009 8.86 13 January 2009 8.86 14 January 2009 8.78 15 January 2009 8.78 16 January 2009 8.85 19 January 2009 ND 20 January 2009 8.83 21 January 2009 9.02 22 January 2009 9.07 23 January 2009 9.08 26 January 2009 9.06 * Dec. FOMC Return to table Note: Yield for 10-year BBB bonds. Issuance shown at a monthly rate; January is month-to-date. Issuance (billions) 2008:Q3 $10.5 2008:Q4 $17.9 2009:Jan. $18.8 Bottom-right panel High-Yield Corporate Bond Yield Daily Date Percent 1 January 2002 ND 2 January 2002 11.05 3 January 2002 10.95 4 January 2002 10.88 7 January 2002 10.86 8 January 2002 10.89 9 January 2002 10.89 10 January 2002 10.84 11 January 2002 10.83 14 January 2002 10.81 15 January 2002 10.85 16 January 2002 10.89 17 January 2002 10.95 18 January 2002 10.95 21 January 2002 ND 22 January 2002 10.96 23 January 2002 10.99 24 January 2002 10.98 25 January 2002 10.97 28 January 2002 11.03 29 January 2002 11.02 30 January 2002 11.12 31 January 2002 10.80 1 February 2002 10.79 4 February 2002 11.01 5 February 2002 10.86 6 February 2002 10.91 7 February 2002 10.93 8 February 2002 10.95 11 February 2002 10.97 12 February 2002 10.99 13 February 2002 11.00 Date Percent 14 February 2002 11.03 15 February 2002 11.01 18 February 2002 ND 19 February 2002 11.06 20 February 2002 11.07 21 February 2002 11.11 22 February 2002 11.10 25 February 2002 11.18 26 February 2002 11.21 27 February 2002 11.14 28 February 2002 10.88 1 March 2002 10.87 4 March 2002 10.81 5 March 2002 10.75 6 March 2002 10.71 7 March 2002 10.67 8 March 2002 10.61 11 March 2002 10.60 12 March 2002 10.57 13 March 2002 10.55 14 March 2002 10.58 15 March 2002 10.57 18 March 2002 10.54 19 March 2002 10.54 20 March 2002 10.53 21 March 2002 10.56 22 March 2002 10.55 25 March 2002 10.54 26 March 2002 10.56 27 March 2002 10.58 28 March 2002 10.66 29 March 2002 ND 1 April 2002 10.66 2 April 2002 10.62 3 April 2002 10.69 4 April 2002 10.65 5 April 2002 10.64 8 April 2002 10.66 9 April 2002 10.66 10 April 2002 10.64 Date Percent 11 April 2002 10.61 12 April 2002 10.68 15 April 2002 10.65 16 April 2002 10.67 17 April 2002 10.63 18 April 2002 10.55 19 April 2002 10.52 22 April 2002 10.54 23 April 2002 10.55 24 April 2002 10.54 25 April 2002 10.58 26 April 2002 10.62 29 April 2002 10.59 30 April 2002 10.30 1 May 2002 10.31 2 May 2002 10.36 3 May 2002 10.26 6 May 2002 10.31 7 May 2002 10.33 8 May 2002 10.39 9 May 2002 10.38 10 May 2002 10.41 13 May 2002 10.47 14 May 2002 10.53 15 May 2002 10.56 16 May 2002 10.61 17 May 2002 10.70 20 May 2002 10.69 21 May 2002 10.70 22 May 2002 10.71 23 May 2002 10.65 24 May 2002 10.64 27 May 2002 ND 28 May 2002 10.65 29 May 2002 10.65 30 May 2002 10.69 31 May 2002 10.76 3 June 2002 10.79 4 June 2002 10.78 5 June 2002 10.67 Date Percent 6 June 2002 10.70 7 June 2002 10.77 10 June 2002 10.90 11 June 2002 10.87 12 June 2002 10.92 13 June 2002 10.92 14 June 2002 10.96 17 June 2002 10.91 18 June 2002 10.95 19 June 2002 10.94 20 June 2002 11.00 21 June 2002 11.30 24 June 2002 11.15 25 June 2002 11.26 26 June 2002 11.54 27 June 2002 11.79 28 June 2002 11.83 1 July 2002 11.10 2 July 2002 11.24 3 July 2002 11.26 4 July 2002 ND 5 July 2002 11.27 8 July 2002 11.27 9 July 2002 11.22 10 July 2002 11.23 11 July 2002 11.34 12 July 2002 11.31 15 July 2002 11.34 16 July 2002 11.35 17 July 2002 11.33 18 July 2002 11.33 19 July 2002 11.36 22 July 2002 11.43 23 July 2002 11.57 24 July 2002 11.73 25 July 2002 11.70 26 July 2002 11.79 29 July 2002 11.82 30 July 2002 11.82 31 July 2002 11.70 Date Percent 1 August 2002 11.59 2 August 2002 11.70 5 August 2002 11.73 6 August 2002 11.83 7 August 2002 11.81 8 August 2002 11.87 9 August 2002 11.84 12 August 2002 11.89 13 August 2002 11.91 14 August 2002 11.91 15 August 2002 11.91 16 August 2002 11.92 19 August 2002 11.92 20 August 2002 11.76 21 August 2002 11.82 22 August 2002 11.69 23 August 2002 11.59 26 August 2002 11.48 27 August 2002 11.47 28 August 2002 11.42 29 August 2002 11.40 30 August 2002 11.40 2 September 2002 ND 3 September 2002 11.44 4 September 2002 11.38 5 September 2002 11.41 6 September 2002 11.45 9 September 2002 11.47 10 September 2002 11.44 11 September 2002 11.42 12 September 2002 11.25 13 September 2002 ND 16 September 2002 11.35 17 September 2002 11.31 18 September 2002 11.39 19 September 2002 11.49 20 September 2002 11.53 23 September 2002 11.52 24 September 2002 11.61 25 September 2002 11.67 Date Percent 26 September 2002 11.63 27 September 2002 11.68 30 September 2002 11.78 1 October 2002 11.83 2 October 2002 11.81 3 October 2002 11.83 4 October 2002 11.94 7 October 2002 11.98 8 October 2002 12.14 9 October 2002 12.27 10 October 2002 12.35 11 October 2002 12.38 14 October 2002 ND 15 October 2002 12.31 16 October 2002 12.28 17 October 2002 12.25 18 October 2002 12.29 21 October 2002 12.28 22 October 2002 12.30 23 October 2002 12.26 24 October 2002 12.17 25 October 2002 12.16 28 October 2002 12.09 29 October 2002 12.06 30 October 2002 12.01 31 October 2002 11.88 1 November 2002 11.85 4 November 2002 11.82 5 November 2002 11.76 6 November 2002 11.65 7 November 2002 11.57 8 November 2002 11.60 11 November 2002 11.59 12 November 2002 11.52 13 November 2002 11.51 14 November 2002 11.45 15 November 2002 11.39 18 November 2002 11.35 19 November 2002 11.30 20 November 2002 11.23 Date Percent 21 November 2002 11.18 22 November 2002 11.20 25 November 2002 11.04 26 November 2002 11.04 27 November 2002 11.05 28 November 2002 11.05 29 November 2002 11.09 2 December 2002 10.89 3 December 2002 10.86 4 December 2002 11.78 5 December 2002 11.77 6 December 2002 11.81 9 December 2002 10.94 10 December 2002 11.04 11 December 2002 11.06 12 December 2002 11.04 13 December 2002 11.04 16 December 2002 11.00 17 December 2002 11.00 18 December 2002 10.98 19 December 2002 10.98 20 December 2002 10.98 23 December 2002 10.96 24 December 2002 10.95 25 December 2002 ND 26 December 2002 10.95 27 December 2002 10.94 30 December 2002 10.93 31 December 2002 10.78 1 January 2003 ND 2 January 2003 10.75 3 January 2003 10.74 6 January 2003 10.59 7 January 2003 10.52 8 January 2003 10.42 9 January 2003 10.41 10 January 2003 10.36 13 January 2003 10.33 14 January 2003 10.31 15 January 2003 10.33 Date Percent 16 January 2003 10.35 17 January 2003 10.36 20 January 2003 10.35 21 January 2003 10.33 22 January 2003 10.36 23 January 2003 10.35 24 January 2003 10.34 27 January 2003 10.46 28 January 2003 10.46 29 January 2003 10.49 30 January 2003 10.46 31 January 2003 10.39 3 February 2003 10.44 4 February 2003 10.41 5 February 2003 10.41 6 February 2003 10.43 7 February 2003 10.44 10 February 2003 10.46 11 February 2003 10.44 12 February 2003 10.50 13 February 2003 10.59 14 February 2003 10.61 17 February 2003 ND 18 February 2003 10.60 19 February 2003 10.52 20 February 2003 10.46 21 February 2003 10.44 24 February 2003 10.42 25 February 2003 10.41 26 February 2003 10.40 27 February 2003 10.36 28 February 2003 10.24 3 March 2003 10.27 4 March 2003 10.24 5 March 2003 10.24 6 March 2003 10.25 7 March 2003 10.24 10 March 2003 10.20 11 March 2003 10.19 12 March 2003 10.21 Date Percent 13 March 2003 10.21 14 March 2003 10.18 17 March 2003 10.17 18 March 2003 10.17 19 March 2003 10.14 20 March 2003 10.12 21 March 2003 10.11 24 March 2003 10.09 25 March 2003 10.07 26 March 2003 10.02 27 March 2003 10.00 28 March 2003 9.96 31 March 2003 9.83 1 April 2003 9.80 2 April 2003 9.73 3 April 2003 9.65 4 April 2003 9.64 7 April 2003 9.62 8 April 2003 9.62 9 April 2003 9.66 10 April 2003 9.67 11 April 2003 9.66 14 April 2003 9.63 15 April 2003 9.61 16 April 2003 9.58 17 April 2003 9.56 18 April 2003 ND 21 April 2003 9.50 22 April 2003 9.46 23 April 2003 9.35 24 April 2003 9.27 25 April 2003 9.24 28 April 2003 9.23 29 April 2003 9.19 30 April 2003 9.06 1 May 2003 9.01 2 May 2003 8.98 5 May 2003 8.94 6 May 2003 8.92 7 May 2003 8.95 Date Percent 8 May 2003 8.99 9 May 2003 9.00 12 May 2003 8.97 13 May 2003 8.96 14 May 2003 8.97 15 May 2003 8.98 16 May 2003 8.98 19 May 2003 9.00 20 May 2003 9.00 21 May 2003 9.07 22 May 2003 9.09 23 May 2003 9.11 26 May 2003 ND 27 May 2003 9.14 28 May 2003 9.16 29 May 2003 9.10 30 May 2003 9.09 2 June 2003 8.99 3 June 2003 8.98 4 June 2003 8.94 5 June 2003 8.86 6 June 2003 8.80 9 June 2003 8.78 10 June 2003 8.77 11 June 2003 8.73 12 June 2003 8.70 13 June 2003 8.65 16 June 2003 8.61 17 June 2003 8.55 18 June 2003 8.55 19 June 2003 8.57 20 June 2003 8.59 23 June 2003 8.61 24 June 2003 8.64 25 June 2003 8.63 26 June 2003 8.66 27 June 2003 8.69 30 June 2003 8.69 1 July 2003 8.71 2 July 2003 8.72 Date Percent 3 July 2003 8.72 4 July 2003 ND 7 July 2003 8.72 8 July 2003 8.70 9 July 2003 8.69 10 July 2003 8.69 11 July 2003 8.67 14 July 2003 8.66 15 July 2003 8.69 16 July 2003 8.73 17 July 2003 8.74 18 July 2003 8.75 21 July 2003 8.76 22 July 2003 8.79 23 July 2003 8.80 24 July 2003 8.81 25 July 2003 8.84 28 July 2003 8.88 29 July 2003 8.96 30 July 2003 9.04 31 July 2003 9.11 1 August 2003 9.21 4 August 2003 9.18 5 August 2003 9.26 6 August 2003 9.34 7 August 2003 9.37 8 August 2003 9.33 11 August 2003 9.34 12 August 2003 9.35 13 August 2003 9.43 14 August 2003 9.50 15 August 2003 9.49 18 August 2003 9.45 19 August 2003 9.33 20 August 2003 9.24 21 August 2003 9.18 22 August 2003 9.16 25 August 2003 9.14 26 August 2003 9.12 27 August 2003 9.09 Date Percent 28 August 2003 9.03 29 August 2003 8.99 1 September 2003 ND 2 September 2003 8.90 3 September 2003 8.88 4 September 2003 8.85 5 September 2003 8.84 8 September 2003 8.82 9 September 2003 8.79 10 September 2003 8.76 11 September 2003 8.77 12 September 2003 8.76 15 September 2003 8.73 16 September 2003 8.72 17 September 2003 8.68 18 September 2003 8.64 19 September 2003 8.62 22 September 2003 8.64 23 September 2003 8.66 24 September 2003 8.63 25 September 2003 8.61 26 September 2003 8.61 29 September 2003 8.60 30 September 2003 8.57 1 October 2003 8.55 2 October 2003 8.53 3 October 2003 8.55 6 October 2003 8.55 7 October 2003 8.53 8 October 2003 8.51 9 October 2003 8.49 10 October 2003 8.47 13 October 2003 ND 14 October 2003 8.45 15 October 2003 8.42 16 October 2003 8.39 17 October 2003 8.38 20 October 2003 8.37 21 October 2003 8.36 22 October 2003 8.37 Date Percent 23 October 2003 8.41 24 October 2003 8.41 27 October 2003 8.40 28 October 2003 8.39 29 October 2003 8.39 30 October 2003 8.38 31 October 2003 8.36 3 November 2003 8.35 4 November 2003 8.32 5 November 2003 8.32 6 November 2003 8.33 7 November 2003 8.34 10 November 2003 8.34 11 November 2003 ND 12 November 2003 8.34 13 November 2003 8.31 14 November 2003 8.29 17 November 2003 8.26 18 November 2003 8.27 19 November 2003 8.26 20 November 2003 8.25 21 November 2003 8.24 24 November 2003 8.24 25 November 2003 8.22 26 November 2003 8.21 27 November 2003 ND 28 November 2003 8.21 1 December 2003 8.17 2 December 2003 8.14 3 December 2003 8.10 4 December 2003 8.05 5 December 2003 8.00 8 December 2003 7.98 9 December 2003 7.98 10 December 2003 7.97 11 December 2003 7.98 12 December 2003 7.98 15 December 2003 7.97 16 December 2003 7.97 17 December 2003 7.95 Date Percent 18 December 2003 7.94 19 December 2003 7.93 22 December 2003 7.91 23 December 2003 7.92 24 December 2003 7.91 25 December 2003 ND 26 December 2003 7.91 29 December 2003 7.90 30 December 2003 7.90 31 December 2003 7.89 1 January 2004 ND 2 January 2004 7.89 5 January 2004 7.84 6 January 2004 7.77 7 January 2004 7.71 8 January 2004 7.68 9 January 2004 7.64 12 January 2004 7.64 13 January 2004 7.63 14 January 2004 7.61 15 January 2004 7.59 16 January 2004 7.59 19 January 2004 ND 20 January 2004 7.58 21 January 2004 7.56 22 January 2004 7.54 23 January 2004 7.54 26 January 2004 7.57 27 January 2004 7.59 28 January 2004 7.64 29 January 2004 7.71 30 January 2004 7.75 2 February 2004 7.79 3 February 2004 7.83 4 February 2004 7.87 5 February 2004 7.92 6 February 2004 7.93 9 February 2004 7.86 10 February 2004 7.87 11 February 2004 7.85 Date Percent 12 February 2004 7.82 13 February 2004 7.81 16 February 2004 ND 17 February 2004 7.80 18 February 2004 7.84 19 February 2004 7.84 20 February 2004 7.85 23 February 2004 7.88 24 February 2004 7.91 25 February 2004 7.89 26 February 2004 7.89 27 February 2004 7.87 1 March 2004 7.85 2 March 2004 7.85 3 March 2004 7.86 4 March 2004 7.84 5 March 2004 7.79 8 March 2004 7.76 9 March 2004 7.76 10 March 2004 7.76 11 March 2004 7.79 12 March 2004 7.80 15 March 2004 7.83 16 March 2004 7.84 17 March 2004 7.86 18 March 2004 7.85 19 March 2004 7.85 22 March 2004 7.85 23 March 2004 7.88 24 March 2004 7.89 25 March 2004 7.89 26 March 2004 7.89 29 March 2004 7.88 30 March 2004 7.89 31 March 2004 7.88 1 April 2004 7.88 2 April 2004 7.92 5 April 2004 7.95 6 April 2004 7.94 7 April 2004 7.92 Date Percent 8 April 2004 7.91 9 April 2004 ND 12 April 2004 7.91 13 April 2004 7.95 14 April 2004 8.00 15 April 2004 8.01 16 April 2004 8.00 19 April 2004 8.00 20 April 2004 8.01 21 April 2004 8.04 22 April 2004 8.01 23 April 2004 8.01 26 April 2004 8.02 27 April 2004 8.01 28 April 2004 8.03 29 April 2004 8.08 30 April 2004 8.08 3 May 2004 8.12 4 May 2004 8.17 5 May 2004 8.19 6 May 2004 8.27 7 May 2004 8.38 10 May 2004 8.53 11 May 2004 8.56 12 May 2004 8.61 13 May 2004 8.70 14 May 2004 8.72 17 May 2004 8.72 18 May 2004 8.67 19 May 2004 8.62 20 May 2004 8.64 21 May 2004 8.62 24 May 2004 8.60 25 May 2004 8.57 26 May 2004 8.53 27 May 2004 8.50 28 May 2004 8.50 31 May 2004 ND 1 June 2004 8.50 2 June 2004 8.51 Date Percent 3 June 2004 8.52 4 June 2004 8.53 7 June 2004 8.54 8 June 2004 8.52 9 June 2004 8.51 10 June 2004 8.51 11 June 2004 ND 14 June 2004 8.53 15 June 2004 8.51 16 June 2004 8.49 17 June 2004 8.48 18 June 2004 8.46 21 June 2004 8.45 22 June 2004 8.43 23 June 2004 8.43 24 June 2004 8.40 25 June 2004 8.40 28 June 2004 8.41 29 June 2004 8.42 30 June 2004 8.41 1 July 2004 8.37 2 July 2004 8.34 5 July 2004 ND 6 July 2004 8.30 7 July 2004 8.30 8 July 2004 8.27 9 July 2004 8.26 12 July 2004 8.23 13 July 2004 8.23 14 July 2004 8.21 15 July 2004 8.20 16 July 2004 8.16 19 July 2004 8.13 20 July 2004 8.11 21 July 2004 8.12 22 July 2004 8.15 23 July 2004 8.17 26 July 2004 8.19 27 July 2004 8.26 28 July 2004 8.27 Date Percent 29 July 2004 8.25 30 July 2004 8.21 2 August 2004 8.22 3 August 2004 8.24 4 August 2004 8.22 5 August 2004 8.21 6 August 2004 8.15 9 August 2004 8.14 10 August 2004 8.15 11 August 2004 8.15 12 August 2004 8.15 13 August 2004 8.14 16 August 2004 8.15 17 August 2004 8.13 18 August 2004 8.10 19 August 2004 8.07 20 August 2004 8.06 23 August 2004 8.05 24 August 2004 8.04 25 August 2004 8.01 26 August 2004 8.00 27 August 2004 7.99 30 August 2004 7.98 31 August 2004 7.97 1 September 2004 7.96 2 September 2004 7.98 3 September 2004 7.97 6 September 2004 ND 7 September 2004 7.97 8 September 2004 7.93 9 September 2004 7.91 10 September 2004 7.89 13 September 2004 7.86 14 September 2004 7.83 15 September 2004 7.84 16 September 2004 7.82 17 September 2004 7.81 20 September 2004 7.79 21 September 2004 7.78 22 September 2004 7.76 Date Percent 23 September 2004 7.76 24 September 2004 7.77 27 September 2004 7.77 28 September 2004 7.77 29 September 2004 7.79 30 September 2004 7.82 1 October 2004 7.83 4 October 2004 7.81 5 October 2004 7.80 6 October 2004 7.79 7 October 2004 7.78 8 October 2004 7.74 11 October 2004 7.74 12 October 2004 7.71 13 October 2004 7.70 14 October 2004 7.70 15 October 2004 7.70 18 October 2004 7.72 19 October 2004 7.73 20 October 2004 7.74 21 October 2004 7.72 22 October 2004 7.69 25 October 2004 7.67 26 October 2004 7.65 27 October 2004 7.63 28 October 2004 7.60 29 October 2004 7.55 1 November 2004 7.54 2 November 2004 7.51 3 November 2004 7.46 4 November 2004 7.43 5 November 2004 7.44 8 November 2004 7.46 9 November 2004 7.46 10 November 2004 7.49 11 November 2004 7.49 12 November 2004 7.48 15 November 2004 7.46 16 November 2004 7.50 17 November 2004 7.46 Date Percent 18 November 2004 7.43 19 November 2004 7.44 22 November 2004 7.44 23 November 2004 7.43 24 November 2004 ND 25 November 2004 7.43 26 November 2004 7.43 29 November 2004 7.46 30 November 2004 7.49 1 December 2004 7.50 2 December 2004 7.51 3 December 2004 7.47 6 December 2004 7.45 7 December 2004 7.43 8 December 2004 7.41 9 December 2004 7.40 10 December 2004 7.40 13 December 2004 7.39 14 December 2004 7.40 15 December 2004 7.37 16 December 2004 7.38 17 December 2004 7.41 20 December 2004 7.40 21 December 2004 7.39 22 December 2004 7.39 23 December 2004 7.40 24 December 2004 ND 27 December 2004 7.40 28 December 2004 7.41 29 December 2004 7.41 30 December 2004 7.40 31 December 2004 7.40 3 January 2005 7.39 4 January 2005 7.37 5 January 2005 7.40 6 January 2005 7.41 7 January 2005 7.42 10 January 2005 7.44 11 January 2005 7.46 12 January 2005 7.47 Date Percent 13 January 2005 7.46 14 January 2005 7.48 17 January 2005 ND 18 January 2005 7.51 19 January 2005 7.49 20 January 2005 7.51 21 January 2005 7.52 24 January 2005 7.51 25 January 2005 7.51 26 January 2005 7.51 27 January 2005 7.50 28 January 2005 7.47 31 January 2005 7.46 1 February 2005 7.44 2 February 2005 7.41 3 February 2005 7.38 4 February 2005 7.35 7 February 2005 7.32 8 February 2005 7.29 9 February 2005 7.29 10 February 2005 7.30 11 February 2005 7.29 14 February 2005 7.28 15 February 2005 7.25 16 February 2005 7.24 17 February 2005 7.26 18 February 2005 7.28 21 February 2005 ND 22 February 2005 7.30 23 February 2005 7.29 24 February 2005 7.29 25 February 2005 7.26 28 February 2005 7.26 1 March 2005 7.28 2 March 2005 7.29 3 March 2005 7.29 4 March 2005 7.27 7 March 2005 7.25 8 March 2005 7.25 9 March 2005 7.29 Date Percent 10 March 2005 7.31 11 March 2005 7.34 14 March 2005 7.37 15 March 2005 7.38 16 March 2005 7.45 17 March 2005 7.53 18 March 2005 7.51 21 March 2005 7.58 22 March 2005 7.66 23 March 2005 7.74 24 March 2005 7.74 25 March 2005 ND 28 March 2005 7.77 29 March 2005 7.82 30 March 2005 7.86 31 March 2005 7.89 1 April 2005 7.88 4 April 2005 7.91 5 April 2005 7.87 6 April 2005 7.81 7 April 2005 7.77 8 April 2005 7.78 11 April 2005 7.80 12 April 2005 7.81 13 April 2005 7.83 14 April 2005 7.90 15 April 2005 7.96 18 April 2005 8.00 19 April 2005 7.97 20 April 2005 7.93 21 April 2005 7.92 22 April 2005 7.90 25 April 2005 7.92 26 April 2005 7.97 27 April 2005 8.02 28 April 2005 8.04 29 April 2005 8.10 2 May 2005 8.12 3 May 2005 8.15 4 May 2005 8.08 Date Percent 5 May 2005 8.18 6 May 2005 8.23 9 May 2005 8.23 10 May 2005 8.24 11 May 2005 8.33 12 May 2005 8.32 13 May 2005 8.37 16 May 2005 8.50 17 May 2005 8.55 18 May 2005 8.49 19 May 2005 8.42 20 May 2005 8.39 23 May 2005 8.30 24 May 2005 8.27 25 May 2005 8.20 26 May 2005 8.14 27 May 2005 8.08 30 May 2005 ND 31 May 2005 8.06 1 June 2005 7.98 2 June 2005 7.87 3 June 2005 7.86 6 June 2005 7.92 7 June 2005 7.89 8 June 2005 7.91 9 June 2005 7.97 10 June 2005 7.96 13 June 2005 7.97 14 June 2005 7.95 15 June 2005 7.93 16 June 2005 7.94 17 June 2005 7.94 20 June 2005 7.96 21 June 2005 7.92 22 June 2005 7.90 23 June 2005 7.91 24 June 2005 7.92 27 June 2005 7.93 28 June 2005 7.90 29 June 2005 7.88 Date Percent 30 June 2005 7.84 1 July 2005 7.84 4 July 2005 ND 5 July 2005 7.88 6 July 2005 7.89 7 July 2005 7.87 8 July 2005 7.85 11 July 2005 7.81 12 July 2005 7.77 13 July 2005 7.76 14 July 2005 7.73 15 July 2005 7.72 18 July 2005 7.73 19 July 2005 7.73 20 July 2005 7.75 21 July 2005 7.75 22 July 2005 7.69 25 July 2005 7.73 26 July 2005 7.73 27 July 2005 7.71 28 July 2005 7.68 29 July 2005 7.69 1 August 2005 7.70 2 August 2005 7.71 3 August 2005 7.73 4 August 2005 7.72 5 August 2005 7.78 8 August 2005 7.82 9 August 2005 7.80 10 August 2005 7.79 11 August 2005 7.78 12 August 2005 7.76 15 August 2005 7.77 16 August 2005 7.79 17 August 2005 7.80 18 August 2005 7.78 19 August 2005 7.77 22 August 2005 7.76 23 August 2005 7.75 24 August 2005 7.74 Date Percent 25 August 2005 7.74 26 August 2005 7.74 29 August 2005 7.75 30 August 2005 7.75 31 August 2005 7.77 1 September 2005 7.78 2 September 2005 7.80 5 September 2005 ND 6 September 2005 7.80 7 September 2005 7.82 8 September 2005 7.81 9 September 2005 7.82 12 September 2005 7.82 13 September 2005 7.80 14 September 2005 7.81 15 September 2005 7.81 16 September 2005 7.84 19 September 2005 7.89 20 September 2005 7.93 21 September 2005 7.95 22 September 2005 7.98 23 September 2005 7.97 26 September 2005 7.96 27 September 2005 7.98 28 September 2005 7.99 29 September 2005 7.99 30 September 2005 8.03 3 October 2005 8.01 4 October 2005 8.07 5 October 2005 8.08 6 October 2005 8.11 7 October 2005 8.13 10 October 2005 ND 11 October 2005 8.20 12 October 2005 8.27 13 October 2005 8.34 14 October 2005 8.31 17 October 2005 8.24 18 October 2005 8.18 19 October 2005 8.19 Date Percent 20 October 2005 8.18 21 October 2005 8.15 24 October 2005 8.15 25 October 2005 8.17 26 October 2005 8.25 27 October 2005 8.29 28 October 2005 8.32 31 October 2005 8.33 1 November 2005 8.32 2 November 2005 8.31 3 November 2005 8.29 4 November 2005 8.30 7 November 2005 8.32 8 November 2005 8.28 9 November 2005 8.31 10 November 2005 8.31 11 November 2005 ND 14 November 2005 8.37 15 November 2005 8.39 16 November 2005 8.39 17 November 2005 8.41 18 November 2005 8.44 21 November 2005 8.41 22 November 2005 8.40 23 November 2005 8.41 24 November 2005 ND 25 November 2005 8.39 28 November 2005 8.37 29 November 2005 8.34 30 November 2005 8.34 1 December 2005 8.35 2 December 2005 8.34 5 December 2005 8.38 6 December 2005 8.37 7 December 2005 8.38 8 December 2005 8.36 9 December 2005 8.35 12 December 2005 8.33 13 December 2005 8.33 14 December 2005 8.31 Date Percent 15 December 2005 8.31 16 December 2005 8.31 19 December 2005 8.31 20 December 2005 8.33 21 December 2005 8.28 22 December 2005 8.27 23 December 2005 8.26 26 December 2005 ND 27 December 2005 8.26 28 December 2005 8.27 29 December 2005 8.29 30 December 2005 8.30 2 January 2006 ND 3 January 2006 8.27 4 January 2006 8.24 5 January 2006 8.21 6 January 2006 8.18 9 January 2006 8.15 10 January 2006 8.17 11 January 2006 8.19 12 January 2006 8.19 13 January 2006 8.22 16 January 2006 ND 17 January 2006 8.24 18 January 2006 8.24 19 January 2006 8.22 20 January 2006 8.23 23 January 2006 8.21 24 January 2006 8.19 25 January 2006 8.18 26 January 2006 8.21 27 January 2006 8.18 30 January 2006 8.17 31 January 2006 8.16 1 February 2006 8.14 2 February 2006 8.14 3 February 2006 8.14 6 February 2006 8.17 7 February 2006 8.19 8 February 2006 8.20 Date Percent 9 February 2006 8.21 10 February 2006 8.22 13 February 2006 8.22 14 February 2006 8.23 15 February 2006 8.21 16 February 2006 8.19 17 February 2006 8.16 20 February 2006 ND 21 February 2006 8.16 22 February 2006 8.14 23 February 2006 8.14 24 February 2006 8.13 27 February 2006 8.14 28 February 2006 8.10 1 March 2006 8.13 2 March 2006 8.15 3 March 2006 8.19 6 March 2006 8.18 7 March 2006 8.20 8 March 2006 8.24 9 March 2006 8.23 10 March 2006 8.23 13 March 2006 8.23 14 March 2006 8.21 15 March 2006 8.20 16 March 2006 8.16 17 March 2006 8.19 20 March 2006 8.14 21 March 2006 8.13 22 March 2006 8.13 23 March 2006 8.13 24 March 2006 8.11 27 March 2006 8.10 28 March 2006 8.12 29 March 2006 8.15 30 March 2006 8.17 31 March 2006 8.18 3 April 2006 8.17 4 April 2006 8.19 5 April 2006 8.16 Date Percent 6 April 2006 8.19 7 April 2006 8.22 10 April 2006 8.24 11 April 2006 8.23 12 April 2006 8.24 13 April 2006 8.27 14 April 2006 ND 17 April 2006 8.27 18 April 2006 8.25 19 April 2006 8.26 20 April 2006 8.25 21 April 2006 8.24 24 April 2006 8.23 25 April 2006 8.24 26 April 2006 8.27 27 April 2006 8.26 28 April 2006 8.24 1 May 2006 8.25 2 May 2006 8.24 3 May 2006 8.26 4 May 2006 8.24 5 May 2006 8.23 8 May 2006 8.23 9 May 2006 8.23 10 May 2006 8.22 11 May 2006 8.23 12 May 2006 8.26 15 May 2006 8.29 16 May 2006 8.30 17 May 2006 8.37 18 May 2006 8.36 19 May 2006 8.34 22 May 2006 8.39 23 May 2006 8.39 24 May 2006 8.42 25 May 2006 8.42 26 May 2006 8.39 29 May 2006 ND 30 May 2006 8.41 31 May 2006 8.43 Date Percent 1 June 2006 8.43 2 June 2006 8.39 5 June 2006 8.42 6 June 2006 8.44 7 June 2006 8.45 8 June 2006 8.46 9 June 2006 8.46 12 June 2006 8.46 13 June 2006 8.49 14 June 2006 8.57 15 June 2006 8.60 16 June 2006 8.60 19 June 2006 8.61 20 June 2006 8.64 21 June 2006 8.71 22 June 2006 8.73 23 June 2006 8.75 26 June 2006 8.78 27 June 2006 8.77 28 June 2006 8.79 29 June 2006 8.74 30 June 2006 8.66 3 July 2006 8.68 4 July 2006 ND 5 July 2006 8.71 6 July 2006 8.71 7 July 2006 8.67 10 July 2006 8.66 11 July 2006 8.65 12 July 2006 8.66 13 July 2006 8.69 14 July 2006 8.71 17 July 2006 8.73 18 July 2006 8.74 19 July 2006 8.70 20 July 2006 8.69 21 July 2006 8.69 24 July 2006 8.71 25 July 2006 8.72 26 July 2006 8.70 Date Percent 27 July 2006 8.68 28 July 2006 8.66 31 July 2006 8.69 1 August 2006 8.68 2 August 2006 8.65 3 August 2006 8.65 4 August 2006 8.63 7 August 2006 8.62 8 August 2006 8.63 9 August 2006 8.63 10 August 2006 8.65 11 August 2006 8.65 14 August 2006 8.66 15 August 2006 8.64 16 August 2006 8.61 17 August 2006 8.58 18 August 2006 8.59 21 August 2006 8.58 22 August 2006 8.58 23 August 2006 8.57 24 August 2006 8.57 25 August 2006 8.57 28 August 2006 8.57 29 August 2006 8.57 30 August 2006 8.56 31 August 2006 8.59 1 September 2006 8.58 4 September 2006 ND 5 September 2006 8.57 6 September 2006 8.56 7 September 2006 8.57 8 September 2006 8.55 11 September 2006 8.55 12 September 2006 8.53 13 September 2006 8.50 14 September 2006 8.49 15 September 2006 8.48 18 September 2006 8.49 19 September 2006 8.49 20 September 2006 8.48 Date Percent 21 September 2006 8.49 22 September 2006 8.49 25 September 2006 8.48 26 September 2006 8.47 27 September 2006 8.45 28 September 2006 8.46 29 September 2006 8.45 2 October 2006 8.44 3 October 2006 8.38 4 October 2006 8.43 5 October 2006 8.41 6 October 2006 8.42 9 October 2006 ND 10 October 2006 8.43 11 October 2006 8.42 12 October 2006 8.40 13 October 2006 8.39 16 October 2006 8.39 17 October 2006 8.39 18 October 2006 8.37 19 October 2006 8.38 20 October 2006 8.38 23 October 2006 8.39 24 October 2006 8.39 25 October 2006 8.39 26 October 2006 8.37 27 October 2006 8.35 30 October 2006 8.34 31 October 2006 8.36 1 November 2006 8.34 2 November 2006 8.33 3 November 2006 8.32 6 November 2006 8.33 7 November 2006 8.30 8 November 2006 8.29 9 November 2006 8.26 10 November 2006 8.25 13 November 2006 8.24 14 November 2006 8.23 15 November 2006 8.23 Date Percent 16 November 2006 8.21 17 November 2006 8.24 20 November 2006 8.24 21 November 2006 8.25 22 November 2006 8.27 23 November 2006 ND 24 November 2006 8.26 27 November 2006 8.27 28 November 2006 8.29 29 November 2006 8.26 30 November 2006 8.28 1 December 2006 8.27 4 December 2006 8.26 5 December 2006 8.23 6 December 2006 8.20 7 December 2006 8.19 8 December 2006 8.20 11 December 2006 8.20 12 December 2006 8.20 13 December 2006 8.22 14 December 2006 8.24 15 December 2006 8.22 18 December 2006 8.22 19 December 2006 8.21 20 December 2006 8.21 21 December 2006 8.20 22 December 2006 8.21 25 December 2006 ND 26 December 2006 8.20 27 December 2006 8.21 28 December 2006 8.21 29 December 2006 8.20 1 January 2007 ND 2 January 2007 8.27 3 January 2007 8.24 4 January 2007 8.25 5 January 2007 8.27 8 January 2007 8.26 9 January 2007 8.25 10 January 2007 8.25 Date Percent 11 January 2007 8.25 12 January 2007 8.25 15 January 2007 ND 16 January 2007 8.23 17 January 2007 8.22 18 January 2007 8.20 19 January 2007 8.18 22 January 2007 8.17 23 January 2007 8.17 24 January 2007 8.15 25 January 2007 8.14 26 January 2007 8.16 29 January 2007 8.16 30 January 2007 8.19 31 January 2007 8.20 1 February 2007 8.17 2 February 2007 8.17 5 February 2007 8.15 6 February 2007 8.12 7 February 2007 8.08 8 February 2007 8.09 9 February 2007 8.08 12 February 2007 8.10 13 February 2007 8.09 14 February 2007 8.05 15 February 2007 8.02 16 February 2007 7.99 19 February 2007 ND 20 February 2007 7.99 21 February 2007 7.97 22 February 2007 7.96 23 February 2007 7.95 26 February 2007 7.95 27 February 2007 8.00 28 February 2007 8.04 1 March 2007 8.08 2 March 2007 8.11 5 March 2007 8.17 6 March 2007 8.14 7 March 2007 8.09 Date Percent 8 March 2007 8.05 9 March 2007 8.05 12 March 2007 8.05 13 March 2007 8.10 14 March 2007 8.13 15 March 2007 8.11 16 March 2007 8.11 19 March 2007 8.11 20 March 2007 8.11 21 March 2007 8.09 22 March 2007 8.08 23 March 2007 8.08 26 March 2007 8.08 27 March 2007 8.09 28 March 2007 8.12 29 March 2007 8.11 30 March 2007 8.10 2 April 2007 8.10 3 April 2007 8.10 4 April 2007 8.13 5 April 2007 8.10 6 April 2007 ND 9 April 2007 8.10 10 April 2007 8.09 11 April 2007 8.08 12 April 2007 8.08 13 April 2007 8.07 16 April 2007 8.05 17 April 2007 8.02 18 April 2007 8.02 19 April 2007 8.00 20 April 2007 7.97 23 April 2007 7.96 24 April 2007 7.95 25 April 2007 7.94 26 April 2007 7.94 27 April 2007 7.95 30 April 2007 7.96 1 May 2007 7.97 2 May 2007 7.96 Date Percent 3 May 2007 7.96 4 May 2007 7.95 7 May 2007 7.94 8 May 2007 7.94 9 May 2007 7.94 10 May 2007 7.93 11 May 2007 7.93 14 May 2007 7.93 15 May 2007 7.92 16 May 2007 7.92 17 May 2007 7.92 18 May 2007 7.93 21 May 2007 7.91 22 May 2007 7.91 23 May 2007 7.92 24 May 2007 7.92 25 May 2007 7.93 28 May 2007 ND 29 May 2007 7.93 30 May 2007 7.95 31 May 2007 7.93 1 June 2007 7.94 4 June 2007 7.97 5 June 2007 7.96 6 June 2007 8.01 7 June 2007 8.10 8 June 2007 8.15 11 June 2007 8.15 12 June 2007 8.23 13 June 2007 8.23 14 June 2007 8.23 15 June 2007 8.21 18 June 2007 8.19 19 June 2007 8.22 20 June 2007 8.23 21 June 2007 8.30 22 June 2007 8.32 25 June 2007 8.37 26 June 2007 8.38 27 June 2007 8.44 Date Percent 28 June 2007 8.43 29 June 2007 8.43 2 July 2007 8.47 3 July 2007 8.47 4 July 2007 ND 5 July 2007 8.49 6 July 2007 8.50 9 July 2007 8.50 10 July 2007 8.57 11 July 2007 8.62 12 July 2007 8.60 13 July 2007 8.56 16 July 2007 8.53 17 July 2007 8.56 18 July 2007 8.64 19 July 2007 8.63 20 July 2007 8.70 23 July 2007 8.79 24 July 2007 8.93 25 July 2007 8.97 26 July 2007 9.22 27 July 2007 9.31 30 July 2007 9.30 31 July 2007 9.20 1 August 2007 9.26 2 August 2007 9.19 3 August 2007 9.16 6 August 2007 9.21 7 August 2007 9.15 8 August 2007 9.02 9 August 2007 9.03 10 August 2007 9.08 13 August 2007 9.04 14 August 2007 9.04 15 August 2007 9.09 16 August 2007 9.19 17 August 2007 9.16 20 August 2007 9.13 21 August 2007 9.09 22 August 2007 9.05 Date Percent 23 August 2007 9.01 24 August 2007 9.01 27 August 2007 8.99 28 August 2007 9.00 29 August 2007 9.02 30 August 2007 9.01 31 August 2007 9.02 3 September 2007 ND 4 September 2007 9.01 5 September 2007 9.00 6 September 2007 8.97 7 September 2007 8.99 10 September 2007 8.99 11 September 2007 8.98 12 September 2007 8.98 13 September 2007 8.98 14 September 2007 8.97 17 September 2007 8.95 18 September 2007 8.90 19 September 2007 8.79 20 September 2007 8.82 21 September 2007 8.75 24 September 2007 8.71 25 September 2007 8.73 26 September 2007 8.71 27 September 2007 8.70 28 September 2007 8.71 1 October 2007 8.71 2 October 2007 8.69 3 October 2007 8.64 4 October 2007 8.66 5 October 2007 8.65 8 October 2007 ND 9 October 2007 8.60 10 October 2007 8.58 11 October 2007 8.54 12 October 2007 8.53 15 October 2007 8.53 16 October 2007 8.58 17 October 2007 8.59 Date Percent 18 October 2007 8.63 19 October 2007 8.68 22 October 2007 8.71 23 October 2007 8.67 24 October 2007 8.68 25 October 2007 8.68 26 October 2007 8.69 29 October 2007 8.68 30 October 2007 8.67 31 October 2007 8.75 1 November 2007 8.79 2 November 2007 8.82 5 November 2007 8.84 6 November 2007 8.84 7 November 2007 8.87 8 November 2007 8.92 9 November 2007 8.96 12 November 2007 ND 13 November 2007 9.00 14 November 2007 8.99 15 November 2007 9.05 16 November 2007 9.11 19 November 2007 9.20 20 November 2007 9.25 21 November 2007 9.33 22 November 2007 ND 23 November 2007 9.34 26 November 2007 9.31 27 November 2007 9.36 28 November 2007 9.30 29 November 2007 9.25 30 November 2007 9.27 3 December 2007 9.27 4 December 2007 9.30 5 December 2007 9.27 6 December 2007 9.27 7 December 2007 9.26 10 December 2007 9.23 11 December 2007 9.18 12 December 2007 9.22 Date Percent 13 December 2007 9.26 14 December 2007 9.26 17 December 2007 9.27 18 December 2007 9.25 19 December 2007 9.28 20 December 2007 9.29 21 December 2007 9.30 24 December 2007 9.31 25 December 2007 ND 26 December 2007 9.31 27 December 2007 9.29 28 December 2007 9.28 31 December 2007 9.43 1 January 2008 ND 2 January 2008 9.43 3 January 2008 9.49 4 January 2008 9.57 7 January 2008 9.60 8 January 2008 9.63 9 January 2008 9.76 10 January 2008 9.76 11 January 2008 9.74 14 January 2008 9.74 15 January 2008 9.75 16 January 2008 9.83 17 January 2008 9.91 18 January 2008 9.97 21 January 2008 ND 22 January 2008 10.05 23 January 2008 10.07 24 January 2008 9.98 25 January 2008 9.91 28 January 2008 9.90 29 January 2008 9.85 30 January 2008 9.84 31 January 2008 9.80 1 February 2008 9.77 4 February 2008 9.78 5 February 2008 9.83 6 February 2008 9.87 Date Percent 7 February 2008 9.95 8 February 2008 10.03 11 February 2008 10.12 12 February 2008 10.16 13 February 2008 10.13 14 February 2008 10.13 15 February 2008 10.15 18 February 2008 ND 19 February 2008 10.17 20 February 2008 10.22 21 February 2008 10.18 22 February 2008 10.16 25 February 2008 10.12 26 February 2008 10.03 27 February 2008 10.02 28 February 2008 10.02 29 February 2008 10.13 3 March 2008 10.16 4 March 2008 10.16 5 March 2008 10.19 6 March 2008 10.21 7 March 2008 10.25 10 March 2008 10.26 11 March 2008 10.30 12 March 2008 10.32 13 March 2008 10.40 14 March 2008 10.42 17 March 2008 10.54 18 March 2008 10.46 19 March 2008 10.38 20 March 2008 10.41 21 March 2008 ND 24 March 2008 10.32 25 March 2008 10.26 26 March 2008 10.27 27 March 2008 10.26 28 March 2008 10.25 31 March 2008 10.36 1 April 2008 10.31 2 April 2008 10.29 Date Percent 3 April 2008 10.32 4 April 2008 10.18 7 April 2008 10.08 8 April 2008 10.08 9 April 2008 10.09 10 April 2008 10.11 11 April 2008 10.10 14 April 2008 10.12 15 April 2008 10.10 16 April 2008 10.04 17 April 2008 10.07 18 April 2008 9.94 21 April 2008 9.93 22 April 2008 9.90 23 April 2008 9.87 24 April 2008 9.86 25 April 2008 9.83 28 April 2008 9.79 29 April 2008 9.80 30 April 2008 9.72 1 May 2008 9.63 2 May 2008 9.62 5 May 2008 9.62 6 May 2008 9.68 7 May 2008 9.68 8 May 2008 9.71 9 May 2008 9.73 12 May 2008 9.75 13 May 2008 9.76 14 May 2008 9.74 15 May 2008 9.68 16 May 2008 9.67 19 May 2008 9.67 20 May 2008 9.67 21 May 2008 9.70 22 May 2008 9.76 23 May 2008 9.78 26 May 2008 ND 27 May 2008 9.80 28 May 2008 9.82 Date Percent 29 May 2008 9.85 30 May 2008 9.85 2 June 2008 9.79 3 June 2008 9.85 4 June 2008 9.86 5 June 2008 9.78 6 June 2008 9.78 9 June 2008 9.80 10 June 2008 9.85 11 June 2008 9.87 12 June 2008 9.89 13 June 2008 9.89 16 June 2008 9.92 17 June 2008 9.91 18 June 2008 9.90 19 June 2008 9.95 20 June 2008 10.00 23 June 2008 10.04 24 June 2008 10.13 25 June 2008 10.14 26 June 2008 10.24 27 June 2008 10.25 30 June 2008 10.22 1 July 2008 10.29 2 July 2008 10.31 3 July 2008 10.39 4 July 2008 ND 7 July 2008 10.37 8 July 2008 10.43 9 July 2008 10.39 10 July 2008 10.42 11 July 2008 10.52 14 July 2008 10.50 15 July 2008 10.55 16 July 2008 10.58 17 July 2008 10.47 18 July 2008 10.42 21 July 2008 10.34 22 July 2008 10.45 23 July 2008 10.40 Date Percent 24 July 2008 10.41 25 July 2008 10.44 28 July 2008 10.46 29 July 2008 10.46 30 July 2008 10.46 31 July 2008 10.53 1 August 2008 10.54 4 August 2008 10.57 5 August 2008 10.56 6 August 2008 10.57 7 August 2008 10.56 8 August 2008 10.58 11 August 2008 10.56 12 August 2008 10.53 13 August 2008 10.51 14 August 2008 10.52 15 August 2008 10.49 18 August 2008 10.51 19 August 2008 10.55 20 August 2008 10.57 21 August 2008 10.59 22 August 2008 10.60 25 August 2008 10.60 26 August 2008 10.60 27 August 2008 10.59 28 August 2008 10.58 29 August 2008 10.56 1 September 2008 ND 2 September 2008 10.71 3 September 2008 10.59 4 September 2008 10.60 5 September 2008 10.61 8 September 2008 10.59 9 September 2008 10.57 10 September 2008 10.62 11 September 2008 10.63 12 September 2008 10.66 15 September 2008 10.86 16 September 2008 11.00 17 September 2008 11.12 Date Percent 18 September 2008 11.23 19 September 2008 11.14 22 September 2008 11.17 23 September 2008 11.30 24 September 2008 11.46 25 September 2008 11.68 26 September 2008 11.14 29 September 2008 11.35 30 September 2008 11.75 1 October 2008 12.04 2 October 2008 13.83 3 October 2008 12.50 6 October 2008 12.24 7 October 2008 12.53 8 October 2008 13.15 9 October 2008 13.35 10 October 2008 14.68 13 October 2008 ND 14 October 2008 16.04 15 October 2008 17.05 16 October 2008 17.83 17 October 2008 14.87 20 October 2008 15.30 21 October 2008 14.94 22 October 2008 15.20 23 October 2008 15.32 24 October 2008 15.91 27 October 2008 15.45 28 October 2008 16.27 29 October 2008 16.38 30 October 2008 16.22 31 October 2008 15.70 3 November 2008 15.26 4 November 2008 16.73 5 November 2008 14.95 6 November 2008 15.15 7 November 2008 15.66 10 November 2008 15.96 11 November 2008 ND 12 November 2008 15.95 Date Percent 13 November 2008 16.24 14 November 2008 16.31 17 November 2008 15.84 18 November 2008 16.61 19 November 2008 17.85 20 November 2008 17.41 21 November 2008 17.56 24 November 2008 18.36 25 November 2008 17.90 26 November 2008 17.10 27 November 2008 ND 28 November 2008 17.76 1 December 2008 17.14 2 December 2008 17.21 3 December 2008 16.69 4 December 2008 17.89 5 December 2008 17.98 8 December 2008 17.59 9 December 2008 18.03 10 December 2008 18.33 11 December 2008 17.34 12 December 2008 19.66 15 December 2008* 18.30 16 December 2008* 17.50 17 December 2008 17.87 18 December 2008 17.58 19 December 2008 17.44 22 December 2008 17.10 23 December 2008 16.87 24 December 2008 16.30 25 December 2008 ND 26 December 2008 16.11 29 December 2008 16.02 30 December 2008 17.71 31 December 2008 17.67 1 January 2009 ND 2 January 2009 17.41 5 January 2009 15.30 6 January 2009 15.38 7 January 2009 14.54 Date Percent 8 January 2009 14.89 9 January 2009 15.76 12 January 2009 15.62 13 January 2009 15.12 14 January 2009 15.69 15 January 2009 14.52 16 January 2009 14.17 19 January 2009 ND 20 January 2009 15.84 21 January 2009 15.92 22 January 2009 15.95 23 January 2009 15.94 26 January 2009 15.87 * Dec. FOMC Return to table Note: Yield for 10-year bonds. Issuance shown at a monthly rate; January is month-to-date. Issuance (billions) 2008:Q3 $0.7 2008:Q4 $0.2 2009:Jan. $2.1 Exhibit 6 Business Investment and Finance (continued) Top-left panel Change in C&I Loans Period Billions of dollars, monthly rate 2007 20.91 2008:H1 13.89 2008:Q3 20.63 2008:Q4 -4.82 Top-right panel Commercial Banks Tightening Standards and Spreads on C&I Loans Quarterly Net percentage of respondents Period Standards Spreads 1996:Q1 6.95 -30.65 1996:Q2 -0.90 -36.10 1996:Q3 -3.70 -28.75 Standards Spreads 1996:Q4 Period -7.80 -34.55 1997:Q1 -5.45 -33.25 1997:Q2 -6.95 -32.45 1997:Q3 -5.70 -38.50 1997:Q4 -7.00 -40.40 1998:Q1 1.80 -25.40 1998:Q2 -7.10 -34.00 1998:Q3 0.00 -14.30 1998:Q4 36.40 47.30 1999:Q1 7.40 31.40 1999:Q2 10.00 7.10 1999:Q3 5.40 21.50 1999:Q4 9.10 23.60 2000:Q1 10.90 25.00 2000:Q2 24.60 35.20 2000:Q3 33.90 35.80 2000:Q4 43.80 54.40 2001:Q1 59.70 57.10 2001:Q2 50.90 44.40 2001:Q3 40.40 50.80 2001:Q4 50.90 58.90 2002:Q1 45.40 40.00 2002:Q2 25.00 23.70 2002:Q3 21.40 41.10 2002:Q4 20.00 29.10 2003:Q1 22.00 27.10 2003:Q2 8.90 14.60 2003:Q3 3.50 -12.30 2003:Q4 0.00 -13.80 2004:Q1 -17.90 -26.80 2004:Q2 -23.20 -39.30 2004:Q3 -20.00 -30.80 2004:Q4 -21.10 -50.00 2005:Q1 -23.60 -45.50 2005:Q2 -24.10 -70.40 2005:Q3 -16.70 -46.30 2005:Q4 -8.80 -45.60 2006:Q1 -10.70 -42.50 2006:Q2 -12.30 -59.70 2006:Q3 -8.90 -41.80 Standards Spreads 2006:Q4 Period 0.00 -29.60 2007:Q1 0.00 -44.60 2007:Q2 -3.70 -52.80 2007:Q3 7.50 -32.10 2007:Q4 19.20 34.60 2008:Q1 32.20 43.60 2008:Q2 55.40 71.00 2008:Q3 57.60 80.80 2008:Q4 83.60 98.20 January 2009 64.20 92.50 Middle-left panel Vacancy Rates and Rents on Commercial Properties Quarterly Period Rents (Percent change from year earlier) Vacancy rates (Percent) 1992:Q1 ND 13.53 1992:Q2 ND 13.47 1992:Q3 ND 13.23 1992:Q4 -3.03 13.13 1993:Q1 -1.90 12.90 1993:Q2 -0.36 12.60 1993:Q3 0.56 12.40 1993:Q4 1.09 12.00 1994:Q1 1.48 11.83 1994:Q2 1.77 11.60 1994:Q3 2.54 11.27 1994:Q4 3.06 11.07 1995:Q1 3.30 10.83 1995:Q2 3.72 10.63 1995:Q3 4.44 10.43 1995:Q4 4.83 10.30 1996:Q1 5.30 10.27 1996:Q2 5.01 10.13 1996:Q3 4.68 10.03 1996:Q4 5.02 9.73 1997:Q1 4.63 9.50 1997:Q2 5.31 9.30 1997:Q3 5.65 8.93 1997:Q4 5.88 8.80 1998:Q1 6.58 8.67 Period Rents (Percent change from year earlier) Vacancy rates (Percent) 1998:Q2 6.60 8.60 1998:Q3 6.07 8.50 1998:Q4 5.81 8.43 1999:Q1 5.43 8.63 1999:Q2 4.92 8.67 1999:Q3 5.53 8.67 1999:Q4 6.44 8.53 2000:Q1 7.28 8.27 2000:Q2 8.68 7.87 2000:Q3 7.67 7.87 2000:Q4 6.90 8.00 2001:Q1 5.42 8.67 2001:Q2 2.96 9.57 2001:Q3 0.95 10.40 2001:Q4 -1.12 11.20 2002:Q1 -2.44 11.83 2002:Q2 -3.39 12.13 2002:Q3 -2.88 12.37 2002:Q4 -3.01 12.57 2003:Q1 -3.07 12.70 2003:Q2 -2.82 12.80 2003:Q3 -2.83 12.67 2003:Q4 -2.46 12.60 2004:Q1 -2.05 12.40 2004:Q2 -1.24 12.10 2004:Q3 -0.53 11.80 2004:Q4 0.11 11.50 2005:Q1 1.46 11.27 2005:Q2 2.32 10.87 2005:Q3 2.86 10.57 2005:Q4 3.74 10.30 2006:Q1 4.22 10.23 2006:Q2 4.63 10.13 2006:Q3 5.26 10.00 2006:Q4 5.89 9.93 2007:Q1 6.19 10.03 2007:Q2 5.84 10.10 2007:Q3 6.34 10.10 2007:Q4 5.55 10.27 2008:Q1 4.29 10.57 Period Rents (Percent change from year earlier) Vacancy rates (Percent) 2008:Q2 3.27 10.93 2008:Q3 1.41 11.30 2008:Q4* ND 12.00 * Preliminary Return to table Note: Average of series for office, industrial, and retail properties. Source: Torto Wheaton. Middle-right panel Prices of Commercial Properties Quarterly Index, 1996:Q4 = 100 Period Index 1994:Q1 97.52 1994:Q2 97.48 1994:Q3 99.75 1994:Q4 97.52 1995:Q1 98.04 1995:Q2 98.83 1995:Q3 100.10 1995:Q4 100.80 1996:Q1 99.25 1996:Q2 101.28 1996:Q3 102.64 1996:Q4 104.98 1997:Q1 107.97 1997:Q2 112.44 1997:Q3 118.90 1997:Q4 126.05 1998:Q1 126.85 1998:Q2 130.22 1998:Q3 128.86 1998:Q4 129.73 1999:Q1 132.05 1999:Q2 130.44 1999:Q3 132.10 1999:Q4 132.51 2000:Q1 130.83 2000:Q2 132.63 2000:Q3 135.32 2000:Q4 133.39 2001:Q1 134.57 Period Index 2001:Q2 136.32 2001:Q3 135.82 2001:Q4 132.40 2002:Q1 132.55 2002:Q2 132.72 2002:Q3 138.37 2002:Q4 142.23 2003:Q1 140.30 2003:Q2 144.68 2003:Q3 145.41 2003:Q4 148.88 2004:Q1 151.58 2004:Q2 159.29 2004:Q3 162.13 2004:Q4 166.46 2005:Q1 165.10 2005:Q2 196.97 2005:Q3 204.60 2005:Q4 210.48 2006:Q1 222.32 2006:Q2 225.86 2006:Q3 230.86 2006:Q4 244.37 2007:Q1 250.06 2007:Q2 261.98 2007:Q3 258.76 2007:Q4 244.54 2008:Q1 247.69 2008:Q2 235.66 2008:Q3 232.82 Forecast 2008:Q4 213.49 2009:Q1 202.28 2009:Q2 196.92 2009:Q3 193.08 2009:Q4 189.41 2010:Q1 186.95 2010:Q2 185.27 2010:Q3 184.34 2010:Q4 184.64 Note: Index based on sales of properties in NCREIF portfolio. Bottom-left panel Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages Percent Period At life insurance companies At commercial banks* 1996:Q1 2.35 3.35 1996:Q2 2.59 3.20 1996:Q3 2.51 3.09 1996:Q4 1.79 2.86 1997:Q1 1.63 2.63 1997:Q2 1.56 2.39 1997:Q3 1.33 2.27 1997:Q4 0.90 2.23 1998:Q1 0.85 2.14 1998:Q2 0.80 2.04 1998:Q3 0.57 1.97 1998:Q4 0.48 2.01 1999:Q1 0.47 1.88 1999:Q2 0.30 1.83 1999:Q3 0.31 1.57 1999:Q4 0.25 1.46 2000:Q1 0.36 1.51 2000:Q2 0.30 1.44 2000:Q3 0.27 1.48 2000:Q4 0.28 1.52 2001:Q1 0.31 1.60 2001:Q2 0.24 1.72 2001:Q3 0.19 1.92 2001:Q4 0.12 1.93 2002:Q1 0.22 1.78 2002:Q2 0.27 1.76 2002:Q3 0.23 1.69 2002:Q4 0.28 1.61 2003:Q1 0.29 1.67 2003:Q2 0.24 1.61 2003:Q3 0.18 1.48 2003:Q4 0.12 1.40 2004:Q1 0.14 1.25 2004:Q2 0.14 1.26 2004:Q3 0.14 1.19 2004:Q4 0.08 1.10 At life insurance companies At commercial banks* 2005:Q1 Period 0.07 1.12 2005:Q2 0.17 1.06 2005:Q3 0.15 1.08 2005:Q4 0.05 1.03 2006:Q1 0.04 1.01 2006:Q2 0.04 1.03 2006:Q3 0.04 1.14 2006:Q4 0.02 1.31 2007:Q1 0.03 1.42 2007:Q2 0.01 1.65 2007:Q3 0.03 1.99 2007:Q4 0.01 2.73 2008:Q1 0.01 3.46 2008:Q2 0.03 4.22 2008:Q3 0.06 4.72 * Excluding farmland. Return to table Percent Period CMBS January 1999 0.40 February 1999 0.41 March 1999 0.32 April 1999 0.31 May 1999 0.41 June 1999 0.42 July 1999 0.46 August 1999 0.45 September 1999 0.45 October 1999 0.42 November 1999 0.49 December 1999 0.49 January 2000 0.52 February 2000 0.56 March 2000 0.59 April 2000 0.58 May 2000 0.63 June 2000 0.55 July 2000 0.58 August 2000 0.58 September 2000 0.64 October 2000 0.58 Period CMBS November 2000 0.53 December 2000 0.67 January 2001 0.73 February 2001 0.81 March 2001 0.91 April 2001 0.83 May 2001 0.87 June 2001 0.82 July 2001 0.82 August 2001 0.86 September 2001 0.90 October 2001 0.98 November 2001 1.26 December 2001 1.25 January 2002 1.36 February 2002 1.42 March 2002 1.48 April 2002 1.48 May 2002 1.44 June 2002 1.55 July 2002 1.55 August 2002 1.55 September 2002 1.54 October 2002 1.46 November 2002 1.49 December 2002 1.49 January 2003 1.62 February 2003 1.65 March 2003 1.64 April 2003 1.65 May 2003 1.70 June 2003 1.72 July 2003 1.76 August 2003 1.77 September 2003 1.78 October 2003 1.93 November 2003 1.88 December 2003 1.85 January 2004 1.86 February 2004 1.84 Period CMBS March 2004 1.76 April 2004 1.63 May 2004 1.62 June 2004 1.58 July 2004 1.45 August 2004 1.36 September 2004 1.36 October 2004 1.33 November 2004 1.32 December 2004 1.32 January 2005 1.26 February 2005 1.22 March 2005 1.12 April 2005 1.09 May 2005 1.02 June 2005 0.96 July 2005 0.96 August 2005 0.89 September 2005 0.87 October 2005 1.00 November 2005 0.92 December 2005 0.87 January 2006 0.74 February 2006 0.68 March 2006 0.62 April 2006 0.62 May 2006 0.60 June 2006 0.61 July 2006 0.55 August 2006 0.49 September 2006 0.50 October 2006 0.46 November 2006 0.42 December 2006 0.43 January 2007 0.37 February 2007 0.35 March 2007 0.32 April 2007 0.33 May 2007 0.39 June 2007 0.31 Period CMBS July 2007 0.29 August 2007 0.31 September 2007 0.33 October 2007 0.39 November 2007 0.32 December 2007 0.36 January 2008 0.40 February 2008 0.38 March 2008 0.38 April 2008 0.47 May 2008 0.47 June 2008 0.44 July 2008 0.49 August 2008 0.51 September 2008 0.52 October 2008 0.69 November 2008 0.86 December 2008 1.10 Source: Citigroup; Call Report; ACLI. Bottom-right panel Implications of Shutdown in the CMBS Market Should add to the pressure on banks' balance sheets and thereby Indirectly damp structures spending: • Market will not be able to help refinance construction loans coming due. • Loans currently within CMBS coming due will need financing from alternative sources. Exhibit 7 Business Cycle Dynamics Top-left panel Real GDP: Cyclical Comparison Index, Real GDP peak = 100 Quarters 1973:Q4 1981:Q3 2008:Q2 Peak 100.00 100.00 100.00 1 99.13 98.75 99.87 2 99.42 97.13 98.62 3 98.46 97.66 97.22 4 98.07 97.29 96.90 5 96.90 97.37 97.33 6 97.61 98.57 97.84 Quarters 1973:Q4 1981:Q3 2008:Q2 7 99.26 100.80 98.39 8 100.56 102.79 98.97 9 102.82 104.89 99.63 10 103.59 106.94 100.40 11 104.09 108.78 101.72 Top-right panel Recession and Recovery • Contraction in real GDP is in line with big postwar recessions. • Projected recovery is more sluggish. Middle-left panel Financial Crises and Economic Downturns • Downturns linked to major financial crises tend to be severe. • Average stepdown in real GDP growth after five major postwar financial crises was about 5 percentage points. • For U.S., our forecast implies a stepdown of 3½ percentage points. Middle-right panel Economic Growth Before and After Onset* Percent change, annual rate Five major crises Four years before U.S. current episode 3.6 -1.5 Worst two years 3.0 -0.6 * As identified by Reinhart and Rogoff; includes Spain (1977), Norway (1987), Finland (1991), Sweden (1991), and Japan (1992). Onset of U.S. crisis dated to 2007. Return to text Alternative Simulation: More Financial Stress Note: Shading denotes 70% confidence intervals. Bottom-left panel Real GDP Four-quarter percent change Period Baseline More financial stress Confidence interval 2007:Q1 1.25 ND ND 2007:Q2 1.77 ND ND 2007:Q3 2.75 ND ND 2007:Q4 2.33 ND ND 2008:Q1 2.54 ND ND 2008:Q2 2.05 ND ND 2008:Q3 0.75 ND ND 2008:Q4 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 - -0.48 2009:Q1 -2.10 -2.28 -2.62 - -1.62 Period Baseline More financial stress Confidence interval 2009:Q2 -3.10 -3.62 -3.76 - -2.41 2009:Q3 -2.55 -3.58 -3.42 - -1.67 2009:Q4 -0.79 -2.44 -1.87 - 0.23 2010:Q1 1.20 -0.89 0.05 - 2.29 2010:Q2 2.13 -0.19 0.87 - 3.20 2010:Q3 2.36 0.11 1.09 - 3.49 2010:Q4 2.61 0.62 1.28 - 3.77 2011:Q1 3.39 1.69 2.00 - 4.56 2011:Q2 4.06 2.71 2.64 - 5.27 2011:Q3 4.59 3.58 3.14 - 5.79 2011:Q4 4.87 4.13 3.37 - 6.10 2012:Q1 4.73 4.25 3.21 - 5.98 2012:Q2 4.76 4.48 3.19 - 6.05 2012:Q3 4.91 4.78 3.36 - 6.22 2012:Q4 5.29 5.23 3.70 - 6.59 2013:Q1 5.52 5.49 3.88 - 6.87 2013:Q2 5.55 5.56 3.95 - 6.84 2013:Q3 5.37 5.45 3.79 - 6.71 2013:Q4 4.97 5.21 3.48 - 6.37 Bottom-center panel Unemployment Rate Percent Period Baseline More financial stress Confidence interval 2007:Q1 4.49 ND ND 2007:Q2 4.52 ND ND 2007:Q3 4.67 ND ND 2007:Q4 4.78 ND ND 2008:Q1 4.95 ND ND 2008:Q2 5.38 ND ND 2008:Q3 6.05 ND ND 2008:Q4 6.86 6.86 6.86 - 6.86 2009:Q1 7.70 7.73 7.54 - 7.86 2009:Q2 8.16 8.28 7.91 - 8.40 2009:Q3 8.33 8.59 8.02 - 8.65 2009:Q4 8.42 8.87 8.06 - 8.80 2010:Q1 8.46 9.12 8.06 - 8.89 2010:Q2 8.41 9.28 7.99 - 8.90 2010:Q3 8.21 9.27 7.76 - 8.75 2010:Q4 8.10 9.32 7.62 - 8.67 Period Baseline More financial stress Confidence interval 2011:Q1 7.55 8.90 7.06 - 8.15 2011:Q2 7.27 8.71 6.77 - 7.91 2011:Q3 6.99 8.49 6.49 - 7.67 2011:Q4 6.74 8.27 6.23 - 7.46 2012:Q1 6.37 7.90 5.85 - 7.13 2012:Q2 6.10 7.61 5.58 - 6.89 2012:Q3 5.81 7.28 5.29 - 6.63 2012:Q4 5.50 6.94 4.96 - 6.34 2013:Q1 5.18 6.58 4.63 - 6.06 2013:Q2 4.88 6.23 4.31 - 5.78 2013:Q3 4.62 5.90 4.05 - 5.54 2013:Q4 4.41 5.61 3.86 - 5.33 Bottom-right panel Core PCE Prices Four-quarter percent change Period Baseline More financial stress Confidence interval 2007:Q1 2.35 ND ND 2007:Q2 2.07 ND ND 2007:Q3 2.01 ND ND 2007:Q4 2.20 ND ND 2008:Q1 2.18 ND ND 2008:Q2 2.26 ND ND 2008:Q3 2.34 ND ND 2008:Q4 1.85 1.85 1.85 - 1.85 2009:Q1 1.48 1.48 1.34 - 1.63 2009:Q2 1.33 1.32 1.11 - 1.54 2009:Q3 0.96 0.93 0.67 - 1.24 2009:Q4 1.02 0.94 0.64 - 1.38 2010:Q1 1.03 0.86 0.58 - 1.43 2010:Q2 0.84 0.57 0.33 - 1.28 2010:Q3 0.79 0.40 0.24 - 1.28 2010:Q4 0.78 0.27 0.19 - 1.28 2011:Q1 0.75 0.13 0.12 - 1.28 2011:Q2 0.72 0.01 0.06 - 1.26 2011:Q3 0.68 -0.09 -0.01 - 1.23 2011:Q4 0.65 -0.15 -0.08 - 1.22 2012:Q1 0.62 -0.18 -0.14 - 1.23 2012:Q2 0.61 -0.19 -0.18 - 1.22 2012:Q3 0.60 -0.22 -0.21 - 1.21 2012:Q4 0.60 -0.25 -0.25 - 1.23 Period Baseline More financial stress Confidence interval 2013:Q1 0.62 -0.29 -0.27 - 1.25 2013:Q2 0.64 -0.32 -0.27 - 1.29 2013:Q3 0.67 -0.33 -0.24 - 1.32 2013:Q4 0.71 -0.31 -0.20 - 1.37 Exhibit 8 Labor Productivity and Inflation Top panels Labor Productivity Left panel Chained 2000 dollars per hour Period Actual Trend 1972:Q1 24.12 24.15 1972:Q2 24.60 24.31 1972:Q3 24.74 24.48 1972:Q4 24.94 24.64 1973:Q1 25.51 24.80 1973:Q2 25.53 24.97 1973:Q3 25.30 25.13 1973:Q4 25.14 25.30 1974:Q1 25.11 25.38 1974:Q2 25.05 25.46 1974:Q3 24.78 25.54 1974:Q4 25.03 25.62 1975:Q1 25.22 25.70 1975:Q2 25.63 25.78 1975:Q3 25.91 25.86 1975:Q4 25.91 25.94 1976:Q1 26.29 26.02 1976:Q2 26.54 26.11 1976:Q3 26.57 26.19 1976:Q4 26.65 26.27 1977:Q1 26.79 26.35 1977:Q2 26.92 26.44 1977:Q3 27.20 26.52 1977:Q4 26.83 26.60 1978:Q1 26.84 26.70 1978:Q2 27.38 26.80 1978:Q3 27.37 26.89 1978:Q4 27.53 26.99 Actual Trend 1979:Q1 Period 27.27 27.09 1979:Q2 27.20 27.18 1979:Q3 27.16 27.28 1979:Q4 27.13 27.38 1980:Q1 27.24 27.48 1980:Q2 26.93 27.58 1980:Q3 27.04 27.68 1980:Q4 27.33 27.78 1981:Q1 27.75 27.88 1981:Q2 27.39 27.98 1981:Q3 27.63 28.08 1981:Q4 27.28 28.18 1982:Q1 27.10 28.28 1982:Q2 27.15 28.38 1982:Q3 27.20 28.48 1982:Q4 27.43 28.59 1983:Q1 27.78 28.69 1983:Q2 28.43 28.79 1983:Q3 28.70 28.90 1983:Q4 28.83 29.00 1984:Q1 28.80 29.11 1984:Q2 28.98 29.21 1984:Q3 29.10 29.32 1984:Q4 29.13 29.42 1985:Q1 29.17 29.53 1985:Q2 29.24 29.63 1985:Q3 29.62 29.74 1985:Q4 29.76 29.85 1986:Q1 30.14 29.96 1986:Q2 30.37 30.06 1986:Q3 30.50 30.17 1986:Q4 30.42 30.28 1987:Q1 30.27 30.39 1987:Q2 30.50 30.50 1987:Q3 30.50 30.61 1987:Q4 30.78 30.72 1988:Q1 30.85 30.92 1988:Q2 30.95 31.03 1988:Q3 31.04 31.15 1988:Q4 31.22 31.26 Actual Trend 1989:Q1 Period 31.10 31.37 1989:Q2 31.18 31.48 1989:Q3 31.33 31.60 1989:Q4 31.38 31.71 1990:Q1 31.67 31.83 1990:Q2 31.88 31.94 1990:Q3 32.00 32.05 1990:Q4 31.76 32.17 1991:Q1 31.84 32.29 1991:Q2 32.30 32.40 1991:Q3 32.53 32.52 1991:Q4 32.73 32.64 1992:Q1 33.27 32.75 1992:Q2 33.50 32.87 1992:Q3 33.82 32.99 1992:Q4 34.10 33.11 1993:Q1 33.83 33.23 1993:Q2 33.64 33.35 1993:Q3 33.77 33.47 1993:Q4 34.02 33.59 1994:Q1 34.25 33.71 1994:Q2 34.21 33.83 1994:Q3 33.99 33.95 1994:Q4 34.33 34.08 1995:Q1 34.22 34.20 1995:Q2 34.27 34.32 1995:Q3 34.31 34.49 1995:Q4 34.60 34.65 1996:Q1 34.93 34.83 1996:Q2 35.29 35.01 1996:Q3 35.39 35.18 1996:Q4 35.44 35.36 1997:Q1 35.32 35.57 1997:Q2 35.75 35.79 1997:Q3 36.06 36.00 1997:Q4 36.20 36.21 1998:Q1 36.49 36.45 1998:Q2 36.60 36.68 1998:Q3 37.01 36.92 1998:Q4 37.20 37.16 Actual Trend 1999:Q1 Period 37.53 37.42 1999:Q2 37.62 37.68 1999:Q3 37.88 37.94 1999:Q4 38.53 38.21 2000:Q1 38.36 38.47 2000:Q2 39.04 38.73 2000:Q3 38.97 38.99 2000:Q4 39.34 39.25 2001:Q1 39.30 39.59 2001:Q2 39.83 39.94 2001:Q3 40.02 40.28 2001:Q4 40.60 40.63 2002:Q1 41.32 40.94 2002:Q2 41.38 41.24 2002:Q3 41.83 41.54 2002:Q4 41.79 41.85 Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001. Right panel Chained 2000 dollars per hour Period Actual Trend 2003:Q1 42.16 42.15 2003:Q2 42.74 42.45 2003:Q3 43.80 42.75 2003:Q4 43.77 43.06 2004:Q1 43.87 43.30 2004:Q2 44.35 43.54 2004:Q3 44.47 43.79 2004:Q4 44.53 44.03 2005:Q1 44.89 44.24 2005:Q2 44.92 44.46 2005:Q3 45.33 44.67 2005:Q4 45.20 44.88 2006:Q1 45.49 45.10 2006:Q2 45.69 45.32 2006:Q3 45.45 45.54 2006:Q4 45.47 45.76 2007:Q1 45.47 46.00 2007:Q2 45.93 46.23 2007:Q3 46.58 46.47 2007:Q4 46.68 46.71 Actual Trend 2008:Q1 Period 46.98 46.93 2008:Q2 47.40 47.16 2008:Q3 47.58 47.38 2008:Q4 47.78 47.61 2009:Q1 47.38 47.81 2009:Q2 47.45 48.01 2009:Q3 47.85 48.21 2009:Q4 48.29 48.41 2010:Q1 48.59 48.61 2010:Q2 48.82 48.82 2010:Q3 49.02 49.02 2010:Q4 49.26 49.23 Forecast A shaded bar indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. Middle-left panel Productivity Dynamics • In some earlier recessions labor productivity was procyclical. • Procyclicality not observed during the 2001 recession. • In the current episode, labor productivity expected to exhibit some procyclicality, as the deep recession leads to some labor hoarding. Middle-right panel Unemployment Rate Percent Period Unemployment Rate Dec. GB NAIRU 2005:Q1 5.28 5.27 4.85 2005:Q2 5.12 5.11 4.83 2005:Q3 4.97 4.98 4.85 2005:Q4 4.94 4.94 4.83 2006:Q1 4.71 4.71 4.82 2006:Q2 4.68 4.67 4.83 2006:Q3 4.65 4.66 4.81 2006:Q4 4.43 4.44 4.82 2007:Q1 4.50 4.50 4.82 2007:Q2 4.53 4.51 4.80 2007:Q3 4.67 4.68 4.78 2007:Q4 4.78 4.80 4.78 2008:Q1 4.94 4.94 4.77 2008:Q2 5.37 5.32 4.75 2008:Q3 6.05 5.95 4.75 Period Unemployment Rate Dec. GB NAIRU 2008:Q4 6.86 6.74 4.75 2009:Q1 7.70 7.52 4.76 2009:Q2 8.16 7.83 4.76 2009:Q3 8.33 7.98 4.76 2009:Q4 8.42 8.08 4.76 2010:Q1 8.46 8.28 4.76 2010:Q2 8.41 8.29 4.76 2010:Q3 8.21 8.20 4.76 2010:Q4 8.10 8.17 4.76 Forecast Bottom-left panel PCE Energy Prices Period Four-quarter percent change 2005:Q1 13.06 2005:Q2 9.03 2005:Q3 23.72 2005:Q4 23.10 2006:Q1 20.40 2006:Q2 21.71 2006:Q3 9.81 2006:Q4 -3.98 2007:Q1 0.47 2007:Q2 4.05 2007:Q3 1.23 2007:Q4 19.08 2008:Q1 20.05 2008:Q2 19.69 2008:Q3 27.47 Forecast 2008:Q4 -9.77 2009:Q1 -25.74 2009:Q2 -28.63 2009:Q3 -31.84 2009:Q4 -8.81 2010:Q1 7.88 2010:Q2 7.12 2010:Q3 5.86 2010:Q4 5.21 Bottom-right panel PCE Price Projections (Percent change, Q4/Q4) 2008 4. Dec. GB (0.7) (1.0) 1.9 Core PCE 1.1 1.0 0.8 (2.0) 3. 0.6 (1.9) 2. Dec. GB 2010 1.7 1. PCE price index 2009 (1.1) (0.8) Exhibit 9 An Unconventional Policy: Large-Scale Asset Purchases Top-left panel Unemployment Rate Percent Period Baseline Unconstrained Asset purchase (LSAP) 2008:Q1 4.95 ND ND 2008:Q2 5.38 ND ND 2008:Q3 6.05 ND ND 2008:Q4 6.86 ND ND 2009:Q1 7.70 7.70 7.70 2009:Q2 8.16 8.14 8.14 2009:Q3 8.33 8.26 8.27 2009:Q4 8.42 8.25 8.30 2010:Q1 8.46 8.16 8.28 2010:Q2 8.41 7.97 8.18 2010:Q3 8.21 7.61 7.90 2010:Q4 8.10 7.35 7.72 2011:Q1 7.55 6.67 7.11 2011:Q2 7.27 6.29 6.76 2011:Q3 6.99 5.94 6.41 2011:Q4 6.74 5.65 6.08 2012:Q1 6.37 5.27 5.62 2012:Q2 6.10 5.04 5.27 2012:Q3 5.81 4.82 4.92 2012:Q4 5.50 4.62 4.57 Forecast Top-right panel Core PCE Prices Four-quarter percent change Period Baseline Unconstrained Asset purchase (LSAP) 2008:Q1 2.18 ND ND 2008:Q2 2.26 ND ND 2008:Q3 2.34 ND ND 2008:Q4 1.85 1.85 1.85 2009:Q1 1.48 1.50 1.52 2009:Q2 1.33 1.41 1.39 2009:Q3 0.96 1.14 1.06 2009:Q4 1.02 1.31 1.14 2010:Q1 1.03 1.44 1.14 2010:Q2 0.84 1.35 0.97 2010:Q3 0.79 1.38 0.94 2010:Q4 0.78 1.43 0.95 2011:Q1 0.75 1.45 0.95 2011:Q2 0.72 1.43 0.94 2011:Q3 0.68 1.40 0.93 2011:Q4 0.65 1.35 0.93 2012:Q1 0.62 1.31 0.94 2012:Q2 0.61 1.26 0.95 2012:Q3 0.60 1.22 0.94 2012:Q4 0.60 1.18 0.93 Forecast Middle-left panel Assumptions Behind a Successful LSAP Program • Imperfect substitutability of long- and short-term debt. • Sufficient substitutability among long-term fixed-income securities. • Usual linkages to equity and foreign exchange markets. Middle-right panel Simulation Assumptions The Program: • $500 billion in MBS debt plus $500 billion in Treasury securities. • On top of existing programs. • Announced immediately, carried out over next year and a half. Financial Effects: • Reduces mortgage rates: 125 b.p. • Reduces Treasury rates: 80 b.p. • Reduces Baa rate: 75 b.p. Bottom panel Caveats, Financial and Macroeconomic Financial: • Direct effects on interest rates are uncertain • Current dysfunction in some financial markets could limit indirect effects • Could be economies--or diseconomies--of scale in the size of the program • LSAPS introduce tricky "exit issues" on how to unwind the program Macroeconomic: • The model may understate--or overstate--the macroeconomic outcomes • Heavy reliance on mortgage rates and housing to drive economic recovery Exhibit 10 Global Financial Markets Top-left panel Equity Prices Weekly Index, Jun. 3, 2008 = 100 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan Emerging markets 100.00 100.00 100.00 3 June 2008 100.00 10 June 2008 96.22 95.51 98.68 96.67 17 June 2008 96.84 95.07 100.98 93.81 24 June 2008 92.89 90.30 97.47 91.05 1 July 2008 90.32 87.11 94.75 90.01 8 July 2008 89.19 86.05 91.72 ND 15 July 2008 85.07 82.08 89.76 86.36 22 July 2008 88.72 87.05 92.79 86.23 29 July 2008 87.76 86.41 92.61 84.82 5 August 2008 90.14 87.77 90.89 83.49 12 August 2008 91.57 89.76 93.63 82.02 19 August 2008 87.95 85.89 90.54 79.49 26 August 2008 90.45 86.52 89.93 78.68 2 September 2008 93.13 89.62 88.74 77.39 9 September 2008 89.66 85.45 87.27 74.73 16 September 2008 83.12 81.03 81.71 68.34 23 September 2008 84.77 81.75 85.09 70.75 30 September 2008 80.69 78.21 79.24 64.17 7 October 2008 75.82 72.64 71.47 55.57 14 October 2008 72.36 70.40 66.49 52.63 21 October 2008 69.17 66.07 65.49 48.90 28 October 2008 63.87 59.56 53.64 37.62 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan Emerging markets 4 November 2008 75.52 70.03 64.15 48.38 11 November 2008 69.37 63.41 62.00 48.27 18 November 2008 68.23 60.66 58.61 43.06 25 November 2008 67.58 60.27 58.58 40.20 2 December 2008 66.91 59.59 55.34 42.51 9 December 2008 71.01 62.16 59.09 44.47 16 December 2008 70.08 61.46 60.30 46.59 23 December 2008 69.36 60.10 61.40 46.97 30 December 2008 71.54 61.66 62.35 46.16 6 January 2009 75.62 65.16 63.91 49.59 13 January 2009 71.74 61.26 59.21 45.81 20 January 2009 66.78 56.15 56.76 44.20 27 January 2009 68.42 56.82 56.73 42.71 The December 15-16, 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical line. Top-right panel Bank Equity Prices Weekly Index, Jun. 3, 2008 = 100 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan Emerging markets 100.00 100.00 100.00 3 June 2008 100.00 10 June 2008 94.00 93.26 98.07 96.04 17 June 2008 95.12 93.98 97.86 93.67 24 June 2008 89.05 87.92 91.86 90.46 1 July 2008 83.33 82.55 90.88 88.65 8 July 2008 82.35 81.07 88.04 86.05 15 July 2008 76.94 76.81 85.28 87.06 22 July 2008 88.12 84.64 88.37 90.53 29 July 2008 88.91 84.75 87.20 91.01 5 August 2008 95.84 88.09 86.07 90.97 12 August 2008 97.51 89.72 85.06 90.74 19 August 2008 88.05 82.91 80.83 86.11 26 August 2008 89.70 81.87 79.76 85.01 2 September 2008 96.72 87.52 77.17 84.27 9 September 2008 98.15 87.32 78.91 83.96 16 September 2008 84.87 76.87 75.33 75.88 23 September 2008 89.19 80.52 80.90 76.98 30 September 2008 84.86 75.23 77.09 70.38 7 October 2008 76.55 74.32 69.22 61.81 14 October 2008 69.48 67.45 69.96 58.14 21 October 2008 66.65 60.67 71.92 52.12 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan Emerging markets 28 October 2008 53.73 45.64 56.18 40.31 4 November 2008 64.50 60.63 66.60 51.68 11 November 2008 56.66 51.71 66.22 52.33 18 November 2008 52.38 45.08 61.95 46.57 25 November 2008 55.08 44.52 62.22 43.08 2 December 2008 55.44 44.86 58.80 46.61 9 December 2008 60.00 47.75 59.81 49.75 16 December 2008 54.23 45.78 62.25 50.56 23 December 2008 48.80 43.41 65.99 51.47 30 December 2008 51.31 44.67 66.92 49.97 6 January 2009 53.52 47.77 66.43 53.69 13 January 2009 52.10 44.55 61.50 48.37 20 January 2009 33.82 35.19 61.14 45.72 27 January 2009 38.75 37.28 62.52 43.23 Middle-left panel 3-Month LIBOR-OIS Spreads Daily Basis points Date Dollar Euro Sterling 2 June 2008 67.38 78.66 80.36 3 June 2008 67.26 78.83 80.01 4 June 2008 65.64 79.04 79.71 5 June 2008 66.44 78.39 80.46 6 June 2008 67.86 77.50 79.10 9 June 2008 63.63 76.73 78.53 10 June 2008 68.93 75.54 80.05 11 June 2008 70.61 ND ND 12 June 2008 62.78 74.25 81.70 13 June 2008 67.88 73.84 78.68 16 June 2008 65.30 73.01 80.12 17 June 2008 70.83 72.28 82.60 18 June 2008 71.20 69.88 81.04 19 June 2008 70.73 69.94 75.70 20 June 2008 70.74 69.34 76.20 23 June 2008 70.84 69.26 78.19 24 June 2008 71.39 69.95 78.15 25 June 2008 72.81 69.30 78.49 26 June 2008 73.36 68.74 80.98 27 June 2008 72.43 68.53 79.80 30 June 2008 70.76 67.04 78.63 Date Dollar Euro Sterling 1 July 2008 71.85 65.54 77.80 2 July 2008 71.43 64.09 78.09 3 July 2008 73.23 62.41 78.05 4 July 2008 73.09 64.49 77.73 7 July 2008 73.43 63.94 77.28 8 July 2008 73.15 64.56 76.39 9 July 2008 73.64 64.31 73.60 10 July 2008 72.76 63.99 73.66 11 July 2008 73.41 64.04 73.28 14 July 2008 74.46 64.15 73.63 15 July 2008 76.19 64.41 74.39 16 July 2008 74.75 64.21 73.18 17 July 2008 74.63 64.31 71.00 18 July 2008 72.96 63.91 70.60 21 July 2008 74.99 62.01 69.04 22 July 2008 73.43 61.85 68.89 23 July 2008 72.45 61.04 65.50 24 July 2008 73.50 61.29 67.48 25 July 2008 72.46 62.56 68.01 28 July 2008 74.43 62.25 66.01 29 July 2008 72.48 62.39 65.04 30 July 2008 73.91 62.11 66.24 31 July 2008 73.68 62.00 65.51 1 August 2008 72.99 61.61 64.40 4 August 2008 74.26 62.15 65.18 5 August 2008 75.04 62.24 65.50 6 August 2008 75.50 61.94 67.85 7 August 2008 76.10 62.48 67.63 8 August 2008 76.48 64.16 70.35 11 August 2008 75.93 63.19 69.23 12 August 2008 76.29 63.14 69.18 13 August 2008 76.34 63.16 72.46 14 August 2008 77.09 62.98 74.56 15 August 2008 77.43 63.31 75.32 18 August 2008 77.75 63.08 76.55 19 August 2008 78.03 63.39 76.51 20 August 2008 78.19 63.31 75.86 21 August 2008 77.66 62.89 75.90 22 August 2008 76.65 62.99 75.38 25 August 2008 ND 63.11 ND Date Dollar Euro Sterling 26 August 2008 77.89 63.25 75.09 27 August 2008 77.05 63.50 76.04 28 August 2008 77.20 63.94 75.49 29 August 2008 78.21 63.84 76.26 1 September 2008 77.95 63.49 79.78 2 September 2008 78.76 62.69 79.94 3 September 2008 79.63 62.91 80.24 4 September 2008 78.75 62.93 80.48 5 September 2008 80.64 63.30 79.44 8 September 2008 81.14 63.10 78.75 9 September 2008 82.81 62.65 77.69 10 September 2008 84.73 62.71 76.84 11 September 2008 84.08 62.69 76.35 12 September 2008 86.58 63.14 75.48 15 September 2008 105.38 69.66 81.85 16 September 2008 101.33 72.93 90.13 17 September 2008 132.35 72.23 94.13 18 September 2008 138.78 78.95 117.75 19 September 2008 127.50 74.58 116.90 22 September 2008 129.05 76.65 117.50 23 September 2008 136.53 79.55 126.25 24 September 2008 166.53 83.40 149.70 25 September 2008 196.58 90.83 153.03 26 September 2008 207.59 95.08 148.40 29 September 2008 232.20 112.45 153.03 30 September 2008 231.90 124.98 159.40 1 October 2008 251.05 116.45 164.90 2 October 2008 270.25 122.10 164.80 3 October 2008 288.73 136.15 172.30 6 October 2008 287.83 142.40 172.60 7 October 2008 288.80 153.38 193.08 8 October 2008 324.73 162.88 199.08 Date Dollar Euro Sterling 9 October 2008 354.20 174.88 206.78 10 October 2008 364.43 185.93 218.75 13 October 2008 353.65 181.98 215.65 14 October 2008 344.50 167.90 203.88 15 October 2008 345.30 166.55 199.90 16 October 2008 339.50 173.58 203.65 17 October 2008 329.98 166.50 208.90 20 October 2008 290.33 163.28 206.98 21 October 2008 278.08 162.48 206.60 22 October 2008 253.43 158.90 217.63 23 October 2008 254.35 170.00 216.70 24 October 2008 260.83 181.45 234.65 27 October 2008 262.60 188.51 231.98 28 October 2008 261.65 181.90 231.50 29 October 2008 264.15 182.35 227.43 30 October 2008 254.20 180.78 226.18 31 October 2008 238.73 184.38 226.88 3 November 2008 222.78 178.85 228.13 4 November 2008 212.73 179.93 225.20 5 November 2008 192.48 176.43 232.70 6 November 2008 183.30 179.83 232.18 7 November 2008 175.80 170.15 244.63 10 November 2008 174.00 161.03 191.88 11 November 2008 171.70 159.83 188.35 12 November 2008 165.90 166.68 192.12 13 November 2008 159.83 165.33 206.65 14 November 2008 173.18 164.08 210.78 17 November 2008 175.53 162.70 211.60 18 November 2008 176.00 165.78 216.78 19 November 2008 172.05 165.60 218.25 20 November 2008 174.46 168.60 222.88 21 November 2008 169.90 171.28 228.51 24 November 2008 168.38 171.93 223.15 25 November 2008 177.68 165.05 222.83 26 November 2008 177.23 164.23 227.98 27 November 2008 178.30 163.83 218.48 28 November 2008 178.19 166.63 222.50 1 December 2008 182.80 165.83 230.78 2 December 2008 184.25 162.20 241.93 3 December 2008 185.08 162.05 253.83 Date Dollar Euro Sterling 4 December 2008 187.15 173.80 254.48 5 December 2008 190.16 152.30 197.35 8 December 2008 189.69 144.65 195.20 9 December 2008 191.68 133.60 189.38 10 December 2008 184.33 132.85 185.61 11 December 2008 173.43 132.28 178.33 12 December 2008 162.03 130.68 175.36 15 December 2008 154.08 124.45 171.30 16 December 2008 167.75 120.65 167.15 17 December 2008 138.15 122.10 176.15 18 December 2008 133.45 122.96 180.35 19 December 2008 129.15 127.28 171.86 22 December 2008 125.88 127.09 170.10 23 December 2008 124.38 126.73 170.05 24 December 2008 126.25 125.79 169.55 25 December 2008 ND ND ND 26 December 2008 ND ND ND 29 December 2008 127.58 122.49 167.00 30 December 2008 125.50 117.60 164.75 31 December 2008 121.15 115.13 164.80 1 January 2009 ND ND ND 2 January 2009 122.45 109.63 163.90 5 January 2009 122.63 106.58 162.35 6 January 2009 123.33 103.30 159.60 7 January 2009 121.15 107.26 158.98 8 January 2009 116.73 ND ND 9 January 2009 107.75 110.98 149.18 12 January 2009 98.50 110.51 135.35 13 January 2009 92.14 109.40 136.00 14 January 2009 90.95 107.18 132.03 15 January 2009 89.31 108.25 132.93 16 January 2009 95.35 102.70 133.14 19 January 2009 94.65 102.35 127.00 20 January 2009 93.20 102.93 130.48 21 January 2009 92.50 105.75 142.50 22 January 2009 93.54 106.51 141.63 23 January 2009 91.49 102.70 142.11 26 January 2009 94.18 ND ND 27 January 2009 94.89 91.35 138.09 Middle-right panel Outstanding Central Bank Swap Draws Weekly Billions of dollars Period 3-month Other 13 June 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 20 June 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 27 June 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 4 July 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 11 July 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 18 July 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 25 July 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 1 August 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 8 August 2008 ND 62.00 62.00 15 August 2008 12.00 55.00 67.00 22 August 2008 12.00 55.00 67.00 29 August 2008 12.00 50.00 62.00 5 September 2008 12.00 50.00 62.00 12 September 2008 24.00 38.00 62.00 19 September 2008 24.00 108.80 132.80 26 September 2008 24.00 191.52 215.52 3 October 2008 24.00 243.19 267.19 10 October 2008 78.00 318.48 396.48 17 October 2008 88.00 393.53 481.53 24 October 2008 98.00 406.41 504.41 31 October 2008 116.88 416.68 533.56 7 November 2008 240.03 330.14 570.17 14 November 2008 240.03 323.41 563.44 21 November 2008 240.03 240.46 480.49 28 November 2008 245.03 261.79 506.82 5 December 2008 355.90 226.42 582.32 12 December 2008 358.90 207.15 566.05 19 December 2008 358.90 193.15 552.05 26 December 2008 358.90 193.15 552.05 2 January 2009 358.72 185.75 544.47 9 January 2009 347.41 172.86 520.27 16 January 2009 330.41 138.29 468.70 23 January 2009 320.74 144.58 465.32 Bottom-left panel U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates Sum Daily Index, Jun. 3, 2008 = 100 Date Major currencies index OITP index* 2 June 2008 100.00 100.00 3 June 2008 100.52 99.93 4 June 2008 100.78 100.26 5 June 2008 100.86 100.19 6 June 2008 100.20 100.26 9 June 2008 100.47 100.24 10 June 2008 101.46 100.41 11 June 2008 100.89 100.42 12 June 2008 101.77 100.42 13 June 2008 102.03 100.48 16 June 2008 101.52 100.22 17 June 2008 101.39 99.90 18 June 2008 101.37 99.88 19 June 2008 101.11 99.93 20 June 2008 100.81 99.86 23 June 2008 101.28 100.05 24 June 2008 100.86 99.95 25 June 2008 101.03 99.98 26 June 2008 100.28 99.94 27 June 2008 100.02 100.09 30 June 2008 100.25 100.11 1 July 2008 100.19 100.35 2 July 2008 99.70 100.06 3 July 2008 100.53 100.08 4 July 2008 ND ND 7 July 2008 100.81 99.99 8 July 2008 100.86 99.91 9 July 2008 100.24 99.58 10 July 2008 100.15 99.58 11 July 2008 99.58 99.52 14 July 2008 99.43 99.46 15 July 2008 98.94 99.37 16 July 2008 99.15 99.24 17 July 2008 99.30 99.18 18 July 2008 99.61 99.18 21 July 2008 99.45 99.24 22 July 2008 99.92 99.13 23 July 2008 100.27 98.96 24 July 2008 100.57 98.92 Date Major currencies index OITP index* 25 July 2008 100.69 98.80 28 July 2008 100.59 99.05 29 July 2008 101.33 99.04 30 July 2008 101.35 99.05 31 July 2008 101.34 99.14 1 August 2008 101.33 99.08 4 August 2008 101.82 99.10 5 August 2008 102.36 99.13 6 August 2008 102.90 99.20 7 August 2008 103.21 99.48 8 August 2008 104.78 100.10 11 August 2008 105.04 100.15 12 August 2008 105.13 100.34 13 August 2008 105.20 100.46 14 August 2008 105.36 100.45 15 August 2008 105.92 100.68 18 August 2008 105.71 100.59 19 August 2008 105.63 100.79 20 August 2008 105.91 100.60 21 August 2008 104.49 100.32 22 August 2008 105.12 100.41 25 August 2008 104.97 100.75 26 August 2008 105.70 100.80 27 August 2008 105.65 100.72 28 August 2008 105.77 101.01 29 August 2008 106.05 101.18 1 September 2008 ND ND 2 September 2008 106.93 101.98 3 September 2008 106.66 102.27 4 September 2008 107.10 102.47 5 September 2008 107.25 102.64 8 September 2008 108.13 102.36 9 September 2008 107.74 102.59 10 September 2008 108.60 102.88 11 September 2008 108.86 103.38 12 September 2008 107.47 102.61 15 September 2008 107.33 103.38 16 September 2008 107.59 103.77 17 September 2008 107.51 103.87 18 September 2008 106.51 104.16 Major currencies index OITP index* 19 September 2008 Date 106.10 103.18 22 September 2008 104.64 102.74 23 September 2008 104.34 103.04 24 September 2008 104.64 103.48 25 September 2008 104.76 103.37 26 September 2008 104.88 103.77 29 September 2008 105.67 104.43 30 September 2008 107.56 104.51 1 October 2008 107.65 104.77 2 October 2008 108.76 105.44 3 October 2008 109.06 105.53 6 October 2008 110.20 107.61 7 October 2008 109.90 108.70 8 October 2008 110.21 111.49 9 October 2008 111.14 109.56 10 October 2008 112.93 110.74 13 October 2008 ND ND 14 October 2008 111.63 108.41 15 October 2008 112.53 109.50 16 October 2008 113.38 111.21 17 October 2008 112.92 110.32 20 October 2008 114.04 110.04 21 October 2008 115.40 111.23 22 October 2008 117.21 113.10 23 October 2008 117.05 113.00 24 October 2008 117.73 113.57 27 October 2008 119.32 113.12 28 October 2008 119.63 113.14 29 October 2008 116.14 111.98 30 October 2008 115.97 110.48 31 October 2008 116.67 110.52 3 November 2008 115.91 110.54 4 November 2008 113.91 109.72 5 November 2008 113.80 109.93 6 November 2008 115.54 111.19 7 November 2008 115.59 110.82 10 November 2008 116.04 110.74 11 November 2008 ND ND 12 November 2008 117.81 112.19 13 November 2008 118.28 113.00 Major currencies index OITP index* 14 November 2008 Date 117.34 112.31 17 November 2008 117.31 112.67 18 November 2008 117.59 113.08 19 November 2008 118.21 113.46 20 November 2008 119.87 114.60 21 November 2008 119.96 115.32 24 November 2008 116.78 114.28 25 November 2008 115.80 113.75 26 November 2008 116.99 113.42 27 November 2008 ND ND 28 November 2008 117.40 113.83 1 December 2008 117.64 114.61 2 December 2008 117.37 114.51 3 December 2008 118.03 114.69 4 December 2008 117.22 114.82 5 December 2008 119.28 115.62 8 December 2008 116.88 114.36 9 December 2008 117.01 114.17 10 December 2008 116.62 113.60 11 December 2008 114.29 112.15 12 December 2008 114.90 113.21 15 December 2008 113.16 112.47 16 December 2008 112.19 112.15 17 December 2008 109.27 111.58 18 December 2008 109.80 111.04 19 December 2008 112.13 111.26 22 December 2008 111.80 111.77 23 December 2008 111.84 112.01 24 December 2008 111.82 111.91 25 December 2008 ND ND 26 December 2008 111.73 112.08 29 December 2008 110.90 112.19 30 December 2008 111.70 112.24 31 December 2008 112.19 112.40 1 January 2009 ND ND 2 January 2009 111.80 112.70 5 January 2009 112.86 112.34 6 January 2009 113.05 111.97 7 January 2009 111.59 111.94 8 January 2009 111.48 112.52 Major currencies index OITP index* 9 January 2009 Date 112.03 113.05 12 January 2009 113.02 113.46 13 January 2009 114.49 113.57 14 January 2009 114.80 114.12 15 January 2009 115.88 114.63 16 January 2009 115.16 113.83 19 January 2009 ND ND 20 January 2009 116.91 114.21 21 January 2009 117.23 114.30 22 January 2009 116.70 114.33 23 January 2009 116.80 114.73 26 January 2009 114.89 114.40 27 January 2009 114.86 114.88 * Other important trading partners. Return to table Bottom-right panel Broad Real Dollar Monthly Index, Feb. 2002 = 100 Period Index January 2006 86.22 February 2006 86.24 March 2006 86.90 April 2006 86.91 May 2006 85.47 June 2006 86.64 July 2006 86.54 August 2006 85.94 September 2006 85.59 October 2006 85.14 November 2006 84.00 December 2006 83.26 January 2007 84.19 February 2007 83.83 March 2007 84.11 April 2007 83.59 May 2007 83.27 June 2007 83.08 July 2007 81.68 August 2007 81.71 September 2007 80.56 Period Index October 2007 78.64 November 2007 77.48 December 2007 77.92 January 2008 77.42 February 2008 76.25 March 2008 75.33 April 2008 75.42 May 2008 76.07 June 2008 76.61 July 2008 76.10 August 2008 77.78 September 2008 79.41 October 2008 83.71 November 2008 84.20 December 2008 82.76 January 2009 83.27 Forecast February 2009 84.35 March 2009 84.54 April 2009 84.78 May 2009 84.98 June 2009 84.92 July 2009 84.82 August 2009 84.72 September 2009 84.62 October 2009 84.52 November 2009 84.41 December 2009 84.23 January 2010 84.03 February 2010 83.85 March 2010 83.66 April 2010 83.46 May 2010 83.26 June 2010 83.06 July 2010 82.86 August 2010 82.64 September 2010 82.42 October 2010 82.19 November 2010 81.97 December 2010 81.74 Dec. GB Index, Feb. 2002 = 100 Period Index 2008:Q4 83.93 Forecast 2009:Q1 84.16 2009:Q2 84.29 2009:Q3 84.10 2009:Q4 83.73 2010:Q1 83.18 2010:Q2 82.58 2010:Q3 81.93 2010:Q4 81.24 Exhibit 11 Foreign Growth Outlook Top panel Real GDP* Percent change, annual rate** 2009p 2008 2007 2010p Q1-Q3 1. 2. 3. December Greenbook Advanced Foreign Economies Q1 Q2 H2 4.2 Total Q4e 1.4 -3.8 -2.8 -0.8 1.5 2.8 4.2 1.4 -1.6 -1.2 0.1 1.5 2.8 2.6 0.2 -2.8 -3.4 -1.9 0.6 1.9 4. Japan 2.0 -1.1 -5.2 -3.7 -1.5 0.0 1.1 5. Euro area 2.1 0.4 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.7 1.9 6. United Kingdom*** 3.0 -0.4 -5.9 -4.0 -2.2 0.3 1.7 7. Canada 2.8 0.4 -2.4 -4.4 -2.8 0.7 2.1 6.4 3.0 -5.0 -1.9 0.8 2.6 4.1 7.8 4.0 -6.5 -0.8 1.8 4.3 5.7 11.4 9.1 0.3 4.0 6.5 7.5 8.8 4.8 1.8 -4.1 -3.5 -0.4 0.9 2.5 4.2 0.9 -5.0 -4.0 -1.0 0.4 2.2 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Emerging Market Economies Emerging Asia China Latin America Mexico * GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text ** Change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated. Return to table *** Updated since January Greenbook. Return to table Middle-left panel Global PMIs Diffusion index Period Manufacturing output New export orders January 2007 53.80 53.15 February 2007 55.51 54.57 March 2007 54.82 54.45 April 2007 55.84 54.59 May 2007 55.52 55.44 June 2007 57.22 54.88 July 2007 54.20 53.86 August 2007 54.75 54.63 September 2007 54.35 53.43 October 2007 52.62 53.73 November 2007 53.24 54.60 December 2007 52.57 52.27 January 2008 54.37 54.20 February 2008 52.36 52.40 March 2008 50.85 52.13 April 2008 51.06 51.56 May 2008 51.24 52.02 June 2008 49.81 51.96 July 2008 49.39 50.17 August 2008 48.54 50.96 September 2008 43.25 47.37 October 2008 39.06 40.39 November 2008 33.13 35.01 December 2008 28.76 31.03 Source: Haver Analytics. Middle-right panel Japan 12-month percent change Period Real household spending Real exports January 2007 0.51 11.40 February 2007 1.33 7.29 March 2007 0.10 8.56 April 2007 1.02 7.70 May 2007 0.20 6.08 June 2007 0.10 8.40 July 2007 0.00 7.36 August 2007 1.65 12.35 September 2007 3.26 10.99 Period Real household spending Real exports 0.51 11.06 November 2007 -0.61 10.34 December 2007 2.15 11.56 January 2008 3.55 12.69 February 2008 0.00 9.04 March 2008 -1.52 12.20 April 2008 -2.73 7.92 May 2008 -3.25 6.66 June 2008 -1.83 6.08 July 2008 -0.31 7.27 August 2008 -3.97 0.63 September 2008 -2.34 2.90 October 2008 -3.96 -1.04 November 2008 -0.51 -15.91 December 2008 ND -24.41 October 2007 Bottom-left panel Euro Area 12-month percent change Period Retail sales volume Industrial production January 2007 0.91 3.45 February 2007 1.38 4.16 March 2007 2.80 4.22 April 2007 1.81 2.99 May 2007 0.14 2.80 June 2007 1.23 2.87 July 2007 1.36 3.84 August 2007 0.62 3.68 September 2007 1.69 3.40 October 2007 0.83 4.42 November 2007 -0.39 3.60 December 2007 -1.07 2.01 January 2008 0.68 3.34 February 2008 -0.02 2.92 March 2008 -2.06 1.35 April 2008 -2.07 3.71 May 2008 -0.19 -0.25 June 2008 -2.05 -0.48 July 2008 -1.82 -1.36 August 2008 -1.68 -1.23 Retail sales volume Industrial production September 2008 Period -1.36 -2.83 October 2008 -2.23 -5.43 November 2008 -1.28 -7.21 Retail sales volume Industrial production January 2007 10.75 12.6 February 2007 14.68 12.6 March 2007 12.52 17.6 April 2007 13.06 17.4 May 2007 13.18 18.1 June 2007 12.39 19.4 July 2007 11.49 18.0 August 2007 11.31 17.5 September 2007 11.54 18.9 October 2007 12.14 17.9 November 2007 12.08 17.3 December 2007 13.84 17.4 January 2008 14.14 15.4 February 2008 10.19 15.4 March 2008 12.71 17.8 April 2008 12.88 15.7 May 2008 13.12 16.0 June 2008 14.85 16.0 July 2008 15.45 14.7 August 2008 16.78 12.8 September 2008 16.99 11.4 October 2008 16.66 8.2 November 2008 17.63 5.4 December 2008 ND 5.7 Bottom-right panel China 12-month percent change Period Exhibit 12 U.S. Trade Top-left panel Nominal Trade Monthly Billions of dollars Period Non-oil imports Oil imports Exports Period Non-oil imports Oil imports Exports January 2002 101.36 6.92 78.32 February 2002 104.58 6.39 78.43 March 2002 103.35 7.04 79.23 April 2002 106.04 8.98 80.94 May 2002 106.84 8.77 81.22 June 2002 109.49 8.26 82.26 July 2002 108.45 8.60 82.58 August 2002 110.24 9.10 82.90 September 2002 110.43 9.02 82.41 October 2002 107.22 10.09 82.04 November 2002 112.71 10.06 83.16 December 2002 114.25 10.26 81.24 January 2003 111.89 11.19 81.93 February 2003 110.39 11.87 82.57 March 2003 113.68 12.46 82.34 April 2003 112.41 11.02 80.99 May 2003 113.15 9.89 81.91 June 2003 113.87 10.58 84.31 July 2003 115.35 11.23 84.98 August 2003 113.06 10.78 83.87 September 2003 116.94 10.78 85.94 October 2003 119.19 10.39 88.23 November 2003 119.62 10.78 90.44 December 2003 122.05 12.10 90.24 January 2004 121.59 12.84 89.71 February 2004 124.29 13.39 93.58 March 2004 128.62 13.96 96.25 April 2004 129.74 12.98 95.50 May 2004 131.62 13.58 97.15 June 2004 134.15 15.08 94.71 July 2004 133.57 14.05 96.43 August 2004 134.33 15.55 96.90 September 2004 134.58 14.88 98.26 October 2004 137.49 17.22 99.95 November 2004 138.53 19.71 99.75 December 2004 139.35 17.21 102.37 January 2005 141.05 17.02 102.52 February 2005 142.70 18.16 103.27 March 2005 138.74 18.37 104.25 April 2005 144.11 19.54 106.86 Period Non-oil imports Oil imports Exports May 2005 143.99 18.20 106.18 June 2005 144.46 19.79 106.32 July 2005 143.96 20.43 106.83 August 2005 143.81 22.23 108.17 September 2005 147.25 24.03 106.38 October 2005 150.68 25.45 109.06 November 2005 149.35 24.84 110.70 December 2005 153.35 23.81 113.21 January 2006 155.56 25.20 115.22 February 2006 152.91 25.41 116.03 March 2006 156.49 22.69 117.93 April 2006 156.51 24.07 117.88 May 2006 157.50 27.60 119.93 June 2006 159.19 26.76 121.96 July 2006 159.16 28.11 120.31 August 2006 161.26 28.70 123.24 September 2006 161.40 26.48 124.09 October 2006 161.23 22.13 125.64 November 2006 162.17 21.95 127.27 December 2006 164.49 23.33 127.51 January 2007 162.05 24.67 128.32 February 2007 164.45 21.35 126.99 March 2007 167.68 24.77 130.13 April 2007 165.57 25.21 130.52 May 2007 166.75 26.37 133.69 June 2007 168.32 26.55 135.74 July 2007 170.06 27.24 139.98 August 2007 169.79 27.65 142.11 September 2007 170.12 28.13 142.78 October 2007 170.46 29.98 144.11 November 2007 171.15 33.94 145.21 December 2007 168.61 35.12 146.14 January 2008 168.84 39.26 149.39 February 2008 176.10 37.88 152.55 March 2008 171.64 35.03 149.71 April 2008 177.06 39.55 155.24 May 2008 178.36 38.84 157.18 June 2008 176.54 45.23 163.08 July 2008 178.48 50.99 168.35 August 2008 180.59 43.88 165.61 Period Non-oil imports Oil imports Exports September 2008 175.08 36.57 155.09 October 2008 170.99 37.24 151.54 November 2008 159.60 23.64 142.80 153.10 17.40 140.90 p 2009:Q1 Top-right panel Trade Balance Monthly Billions of dollars Period Ex. oil imports Total January 2002 -23.04 -29.96 February 2002 -26.16 -32.55 March 2002 -24.13 -31.17 April 2002 -25.10 -34.08 May 2002 -25.62 -34.39 June 2002 -27.23 -35.49 July 2002 -25.87 -34.47 August 2002 -27.34 -36.43 September 2002 -28.02 -37.03 October 2002 -25.18 -35.27 November 2002 -29.56 -39.62 December 2002 -33.01 -43.27 January 2003 -29.96 -41.15 February 2003 -27.82 -39.69 March 2003 -31.34 -43.81 April 2003 -31.42 -42.43 May 2003 -31.23 -41.12 June 2003 -29.55 -40.13 July 2003 -30.36 -41.59 August 2003 -29.19 -39.97 September 2003 -31.01 -41.79 October 2003 -30.96 -41.36 November 2003 -29.17 -39.96 December 2003 -31.82 -43.91 January 2004 -31.88 -44.72 February 2004 -30.71 -44.11 March 2004 -32.37 -46.33 April 2004 -34.23 -47.22 May 2004 -34.46 -48.04 June 2004 -39.44 -54.52 July 2004 -37.14 -51.19 Period Ex. oil imports Total August 2004 -37.43 -52.97 September 2004 -36.32 -51.20 October 2004 -37.53 -54.76 November 2004 -38.77 -58.49 December 2004 -36.98 -54.19 January 2005 -38.53 -55.55 February 2005 -39.43 -57.58 March 2005 -34.49 -52.86 April 2005 -37.25 -56.79 May 2005 -37.81 -56.00 June 2005 -38.14 -57.93 July 2005 -37.14 -57.57 August 2005 -35.65 -57.87 September 2005 -40.87 -64.90 October 2005 -41.62 -67.07 November 2005 -38.64 -63.48 December 2005 -40.13 -63.95 January 2006 -40.33 -65.54 February 2006 -36.89 -62.30 March 2006 -38.56 -61.25 April 2006 -38.62 -62.69 May 2006 -37.57 -65.17 June 2006 -37.23 -63.99 July 2006 -38.85 -66.96 August 2006 -38.02 -66.72 September 2006 -37.31 -63.79 October 2006 -35.59 -57.73 November 2006 -34.90 -56.85 December 2006 -36.98 -60.31 January 2007 -33.74 -58.41 February 2007 -37.46 -58.81 March 2007 -37.55 -62.32 April 2007 -35.05 -60.26 May 2007 -33.06 -59.43 June 2007 -32.57 -59.13 July 2007 -30.08 -57.32 August 2007 -27.68 -55.33 September 2007 -27.34 -55.46 October 2007 -26.36 -56.33 November 2007 -25.93 -59.87 Period Ex. oil imports Total December 2007 -22.46 -57.58 January 2008 -19.45 -58.71 February 2008 -23.55 -61.43 March 2008 -21.94 -56.96 April 2008 -21.83 -61.37 May 2008 -21.18 -60.02 June 2008 -13.46 -58.69 July 2008 -10.13 -61.12 August 2008 -14.98 -58.86 September 2008 -19.99 -56.56 October 2008 -19.45 -56.69 November 2008 -16.80 -40.44 -12.20 -29.70 p 2009:Q1 Middle-left panel Automotive Trade Monthly Billions of dollars Period Exports Imports January 2002 6.13 15.72 February 2002 6.28 16.44 March 2002 6.34 16.22 April 2002 6.71 16.94 May 2002 6.72 16.79 June 2002 6.83 17.13 July 2002 6.73 16.87 August 2002 6.79 17.71 September 2002 6.64 17.65 October 2002 6.65 17.09 November 2002 6.55 17.56 December 2002 6.56 17.62 January 2003 6.58 17.09 February 2003 6.63 16.90 March 2003 6.73 17.36 April 2003 6.74 17.20 May 2003 6.95 17.60 June 2003 6.80 18.13 July 2003 6.67 17.80 August 2003 6.20 15.93 September 2003 6.72 17.53 October 2003 6.92 17.96 Period Exports Imports November 2003 6.80 18.21 December 2003 6.90 18.43 January 2004 6.68 17.74 February 2004 7.02 18.51 March 2004 7.26 19.03 April 2004 7.28 19.13 May 2004 7.40 19.29 June 2004 7.24 18.98 July 2004 7.54 19.33 August 2004 7.71 18.64 September 2004 7.78 19.58 October 2004 7.79 19.58 November 2004 7.69 19.20 December 2004 7.83 19.16 January 2005 8.12 19.57 February 2005 7.88 19.55 March 2005 7.74 18.80 April 2005 8.02 19.22 May 2005 7.92 19.90 June 2005 7.94 19.51 July 2005 8.02 19.76 August 2005 8.22 20.15 September 2005 8.46 20.12 October 2005 8.55 20.85 November 2005 8.66 20.68 December 2005 8.88 21.32 January 2006 8.91 22.06 February 2006 8.95 21.38 March 2006 8.52 21.01 April 2006 8.61 21.38 May 2006 8.59 21.27 June 2006 8.97 21.86 July 2006 9.11 20.82 August 2006 9.20 21.07 September 2006 8.79 21.04 October 2006 8.77 20.79 November 2006 9.03 21.07 December 2006 9.54 22.87 January 2007 9.20 21.13 February 2007 9.36 21.19 Period Exports Imports March 2007 9.84 21.87 April 2007 9.84 21.34 May 2007 9.86 20.73 June 2007 9.95 21.42 July 2007 10.85 22.23 August 2007 10.28 21.93 September 2007 10.43 22.08 October 2007 10.50 22.17 November 2007 10.84 22.10 December 2007 10.10 20.72 January 2008 10.33 21.23 February 2008 10.83 22.79 9.44 20.30 April 2008 10.03 21.47 May 2008 10.22 20.47 June 2008 10.80 20.53 July 2008 12.16 20.44 August 2008 10.47 19.28 September 2008 10.33 18.47 October 2008 10.10 17.60 9.01 16.42 8.90 16.00 March 2008 November 2008 p 2009:Q1 Middle-right panel Aircraft Exports Monthly Billions of dollars Period Exports January 2002 4.14 February 2002 3.89 March 2002 4.33 April 2002 4.28 May 2002 4.01 June 2002 4.32 July 2002 4.69 August 2002 4.38 September 2002 4.35 October 2002 4.38 November 2002 4.04 December 2002 3.61 January 2003 3.48 Period Exports February 2003 4.51 March 2003 3.50 April 2003 3.57 May 2003 3.47 June 2003 3.86 July 2003 3.95 August 2003 3.60 September 2003 3.86 October 2003 3.89 November 2003 4.91 December 2003 4.12 January 2004 3.93 February 2004 4.21 March 2004 4.15 April 2004 3.97 May 2004 4.39 June 2004 3.56 July 2004 4.21 August 2004 4.31 September 2004 4.27 October 2004 4.32 November 2004 4.12 December 2004 4.55 January 2005 4.44 February 2005 4.32 March 2005 4.88 April 2005 6.04 May 2005 4.90 June 2005 5.28 July 2005 5.30 August 2005 5.79 September 2005 3.56 October 2005 5.25 November 2005 5.76 December 2005 5.26 January 2006 5.89 February 2006 6.29 March 2006 5.95 April 2006 6.02 May 2006 6.08 Period Exports June 2006 6.07 July 2006 5.64 August 2006 6.04 September 2006 6.64 October 2006 6.54 November 2006 7.36 December 2006 6.67 January 2007 7.40 February 2007 6.74 March 2007 6.15 April 2007 6.11 May 2007 6.99 June 2007 6.97 July 2007 7.79 August 2007 7.55 September 2007 7.53 October 2007 8.08 November 2007 7.80 December 2007 8.18 January 2008 8.00 February 2008 8.14 March 2008 6.68 April 2008 7.60 May 2008 7.63 June 2008 7.60 July 2008 7.84 August 2008 9.24 September 2008 5.84 October 2008 5.11 November 2008 5.26 2009:Q1p 8.30 Bottom panel Trade in Real Goods and Services 2009p 2008 2007 2010p Q1-Q3 Q4e Q1 Q2 H2 Growth Rates (percent, annual rate*) 1. Exports 8.9 6.7 -19.9 -5.1 -2.7 -0.1 2.4 2. Imports 1.1 -3.9 -15.4 -11.7 -1.9 5.8 5.4 Contribution to Real GDP Growth (percentage points, annual rate*) 2009p 2008 2007 2010p Q1-Q3 Q4e Q1 Q2 H2 3. Net Exports 0.8 1.6 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 -0.8 -0.5 4. 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.9 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 December Greenbook * Change from final quarter of preceding period to final quarter of period indicated. Return to table Exhibit 13 Cyclical Comparisons Note: Gray shading represents U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER: November 1973-March 1975, January 1980-July 1980, July 1981-November 1982, July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-November 2001. A gray vertical line indicates the NBER Peak in December 2007. Blue shading represents the forecast period. Top panel Real GDP A line chart shows United States and Foreign real GDP on an annual basis from 1972 through 2008, and a forecast through 2010. Data are percent change, Q4/Q4. Foreign real GDP is weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. The United States curve begins near 7 percent, and fluctuates widely between about -2 and 8 until 1985. The curve then fluctuates within a more narrow range, between about 0 and 5, until 2008, when it dips into negative territory to about -0.5 percent. The forecast shows the curve decreasing toward -1 in 2009, and then increasing to about 2.5 by the end of the period. The Foreign curve begins at about 6.5 percent, reaches a low point of nearly -1 in 1982, and fluctuates between about 2 and 6 for most of the remainder of the period. The curve decreases almost to zero in 2008, dips slightly below zero in 2009, and then increases to nearly 3 by the end of the period. Middle panel Contribution of Trade to U.S. GDP Growth A bar and line chart shows Exports, Imports, and Net exports on an annual basis from 1972 through 2008, and a forecast through 2010. Data are percentage points, Q4/Q4. Exports remains positive for most of the period, fluctuating between about 0 and 1.5, with apparent notable exceptions being 1982 and 2001, during which exports decreased to less than -1. Exports are also shown to be slightly negative at about -0.1 in 2008. The forecast for exports is about -0.25 in 2009 and about 0.25 in 2010. Imports remains negative for most of the period, fluctuating between about 0 and -2. Imports are at about -0.5 in 1981 but about +0.3 in 1982, and are at about 1 in 2001 and again in 2008. The forecast for imports is about 0.1 in 2009 and about -0.8 in 2010. Net exports begins at about zero in 1972, fluctuates between about -2 and 1.5 through 1985, and then fluctuates within a more narrow range between about -1 and 1 for the remainder of the period. The net exports curve is about 1 in 2008, and is forecast to decrease to about -0.5 by 2010. Bottom panel Broad Real Dollar Index, historical average = 100 Period Index 1973:Q2 101.54 1973:Q3 98.25 1973:Q4 99.59 1974:Q1 100.24 1974:Q2 96.50 1974:Q3 97.75 Period Index 1974:Q4 97.56 1975:Q1 95.54 1975:Q2 94.86 1975:Q3 97.16 1975:Q4 97.74 1976:Q1 96.55 1976:Q2 95.87 1976:Q3 95.49 1976:Q4 96.07 1977:Q1 95.87 1977:Q2 95.06 1977:Q3 94.04 1977:Q4 92.32 1978:Q1 90.34 1978:Q2 90.34 1978:Q3 87.09 1978:Q4 86.79 1979:Q1 88.40 1979:Q2 90.25 1979:Q3 89.28 1979:Q4 91.07 1980:Q1 92.78 1980:Q2 93.04 1980:Q3 90.39 1980:Q4 91.96 1981:Q1 94.26 1981:Q2 99.02 1981:Q3 103.56 1981:Q4 100.82 1982:Q1 104.15 1982:Q2 107.65 1982:Q3 113.06 1982:Q4 112.26 1983:Q1 110.42 1983:Q2 112.97 1983:Q3 115.63 1983:Q4 115.97 1984:Q1 117.12 1984:Q2 118.65 1984:Q3 123.83 Period Index 1984:Q4 126.67 1985:Q1 131.87 1985:Q2 129.58 1985:Q3 125.69 1985:Q4 120.34 1986:Q1 115.99 1986:Q2 111.18 1986:Q3 108.19 1986:Q4 108.43 1987:Q1 104.89 1987:Q2 101.93 1987:Q3 102.50 1987:Q4 97.76 1988:Q1 95.23 1988:Q2 94.17 1988:Q3 97.20 1988:Q4 93.57 1989:Q1 95.10 1989:Q2 97.90 1989:Q3 97.72 1989:Q4 96.57 1990:Q1 95.48 1990:Q2 96.09 1990:Q3 92.48 1990:Q4 89.76 1991:Q1 90.67 1991:Q2 93.82 1991:Q3 93.21 1991:Q4 90.22 1992:Q1 90.69 1992:Q2 90.60 1992:Q3 87.79 1992:Q4 91.26 1993:Q1 92.79 1993:Q2 90.58 1993:Q3 90.72 1993:Q4 91.31 1994:Q1 93.31 1994:Q2 92.39 1994:Q3 89.93 Period Index 1994:Q4 89.03 1995:Q1 90.95 1995:Q2 86.60 1995:Q3 87.67 1995:Q4 89.27 1996:Q1 90.52 1996:Q2 90.76 1996:Q3 90.51 1996:Q4 91.02 1997:Q1 93.49 1997:Q2 94.04 1997:Q3 95.43 1997:Q4 99.14 1998:Q1 103.34 1998:Q2 103.21 1998:Q3 105.73 1998:Q4 101.62 1999:Q1 102.50 1999:Q2 103.51 1999:Q3 103.17 1999:Q4 102.10 2000:Q1 103.27 2000:Q2 105.85 2000:Q3 107.13 2000:Q4 109.92 2001:Q1 110.97 2001:Q2 113.22 2001:Q3 112.82 2001:Q4 113.23 2002:Q1 114.88 2002:Q2 113.09 2002:Q3 111.08 2002:Q4 111.90 2003:Q1 109.70 2003:Q2 105.62 2003:Q3 105.89 2003:Q4 102.48 2004:Q1 100.75 2004:Q2 103.09 2004:Q3 102.22 Period Index 2004:Q4 98.84 2005:Q1 97.85 2005:Q2 99.10 2005:Q3 100.16 2005:Q4 101.28 2006:Q1 99.75 2006:Q2 98.53 2006:Q3 98.45 2006:Q4 97.01 2007:Q1 96.96 2007:Q2 95.03 2007:Q3 93.08 2007:Q4 89.99 2008:Q1 88.11 2008:Q2 86.60 2008:Q3 88.88 Forecast 2008:Q4 96.24 2009:Q1 97.20 2009:Q2 97.73 2009:Q3 97.53 2009:Q4 97.14 2010:Q1 96.52 2010:Q2 95.85 2010:Q3 95.13 2010:Q4 94.36 Exhibit 14 Commodity Prices Top-left panel Recent Price Developments Daily WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 3 January 2007 58.33 100.00 4 January 2007 55.41 99.80 5 January 2007 56.32 99.78 8 January 2007 56.10 99.04 9 January 2007 55.65 98.62 10 January 2007 54.03 99.00 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 11 January 2007 51.89 99.85 12 January 2007 53.00 100.68 15 January 2007 ND ND 16 January 2007 51.22 100.49 17 January 2007 52.25 100.64 18 January 2007 50.49 100.48 19 January 2007 50.49 100.73 22 January 2007 51.14 100.84 23 January 2007 53.90 101.77 24 January 2007 54.73 101.47 25 January 2007 53.59 101.87 26 January 2007 55.43 101.53 29 January 2007 54.02 100.85 30 January 2007 56.98 101.14 31 January 2007 58.15 101.10 1 February 2007 57.31 100.83 2 February 2007 59.03 100.85 5 February 2007 58.75 100.80 6 February 2007 58.89 100.68 7 February 2007 57.72 100.87 8 February 2007 59.72 101.05 9 February 2007 59.90 101.65 12 February 2007 57.82 101.84 13 February 2007 59.06 101.84 14 February 2007 58.00 102.06 15 February 2007 58.00 102.99 16 February 2007 59.41 103.18 19 February 2007 ND ND 20 February 2007 58.08 102.94 21 February 2007 59.53 103.48 22 February 2007 59.56 103.96 23 February 2007 60.53 104.10 26 February 2007 61.40 104.43 27 February 2007 61.47 103.81 28 February 2007 61.80 103.93 1 March 2007 62.01 104.13 2 March 2007 61.65 103.69 5 March 2007 60.08 104.14 6 March 2007 60.70 104.69 7 March 2007 61.83 105.33 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 8 March 2007 61.65 105.67 9 March 2007 60.06 105.44 12 March 2007 58.92 105.49 13 March 2007 57.94 105.40 14 March 2007 58.17 105.05 15 March 2007 57.56 105.83 16 March 2007 57.12 106.01 19 March 2007 56.60 106.02 20 March 2007 56.74 106.33 21 March 2007 57.37 107.14 22 March 2007 60.65 107.34 23 March 2007 61.49 107.79 26 March 2007 62.92 107.82 27 March 2007 62.94 107.78 28 March 2007 64.09 107.69 29 March 2007 66.04 107.77 30 March 2007 65.88 107.50 2 April 2007 65.95 106.80 3 April 2007 64.65 106.81 4 April 2007 64.39 107.36 5 April 2007 64.29 107.91 6 April 2007 ND ND 9 April 2007 61.52 107.89 10 April 2007 61.90 108.59 11 April 2007 62.02 108.67 12 April 2007 63.86 108.48 13 April 2007 63.64 109.15 16 April 2007 63.85 109.15 17 April 2007 63.11 109.40 18 April 2007 63.14 109.37 19 April 2007 61.84 109.23 20 April 2007 63.39 109.55 23 April 2007 65.35 109.48 24 April 2007 63.91 109.63 25 April 2007 65.12 109.94 26 April 2007 65.07 109.50 27 April 2007 66.47 109.54 30 April 2007 65.71 109.61 1 May 2007 64.41 110.55 2 May 2007 63.68 111.07 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 3 May 2007 63.20 111.60 4 May 2007 61.94 111.75 7 May 2007 61.48 111.65 8 May 2007 62.27 111.52 9 May 2007 61.56 111.72 10 May 2007 61.82 111.62 11 May 2007 62.38 112.07 14 May 2007 62.47 112.04 15 May 2007 63.18 112.52 16 May 2007 62.56 112.59 17 May 2007 64.87 112.12 18 May 2007 64.95 112.10 21 May 2007 66.28 113.04 22 May 2007 64.98 112.65 23 May 2007 65.08 112.47 24 May 2007 63.59 112.50 25 May 2007 64.76 112.96 28 May 2007 ND ND 29 May 2007 63.16 112.42 30 May 2007 63.50 112.80 31 May 2007 64.02 113.32 1 June 2007 65.09 113.31 4 June 2007 66.22 114.12 5 June 2007 65.62 114.43 6 June 2007 65.97 114.06 7 June 2007 66.93 114.33 8 June 2007 64.76 113.67 11 June 2007 65.97 114.49 12 June 2007 65.36 114.22 13 June 2007 66.27 114.59 14 June 2007 67.66 114.99 15 June 2007 68.00 115.64 18 June 2007 69.10 116.05 19 June 2007 69.11 115.30 20 June 2007 68.20 115.34 21 June 2007 67.93 115.22 22 June 2007 68.90 114.33 25 June 2007 68.94 114.41 26 June 2007 67.78 114.36 27 June 2007 68.98 113.54 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 28 June 2007 69.57 113.64 29 June 2007 70.69 114.40 2 July 2007 71.10 114.66 3 July 2007 71.42 114.58 4 July 2007 ND ND 5 July 2007 71.82 115.21 6 July 2007 72.82 115.36 9 July 2007 72.20 115.79 10 July 2007 72.20 115.53 11 July 2007 72.57 116.18 12 July 2007 72.51 116.36 13 July 2007 73.94 116.43 16 July 2007 74.16 115.73 17 July 2007 74.03 115.61 18 July 2007 75.06 116.17 19 July 2007 75.93 116.30 20 July 2007 75.58 116.53 23 July 2007 74.70 116.42 24 July 2007 73.52 116.75 25 July 2007 75.99 116.41 26 July 2007 74.96 115.99 27 July 2007 77.03 115.66 30 July 2007 76.84 116.29 31 July 2007 78.22 116.34 1 August 2007 76.54 115.87 2 August 2007 76.87 115.90 3 August 2007 75.49 116.95 6 August 2007 72.07 116.78 7 August 2007 72.43 117.04 8 August 2007 72.18 117.15 9 August 2007 71.60 116.17 10 August 2007 71.47 115.17 13 August 2007 71.62 115.39 14 August 2007 72.39 114.85 15 August 2007 73.34 113.91 16 August 2007 71.01 112.45 17 August 2007 71.99 112.30 20 August 2007 71.13 112.84 21 August 2007 69.48 112.72 22 August 2007 69.32 113.24 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 23 August 2007 70.04 114.01 24 August 2007 71.39 113.93 27 August 2007 71.98 113.59 28 August 2007 71.74 113.37 29 August 2007 73.52 113.42 30 August 2007 73.37 113.78 31 August 2007 74.05 114.33 3 September 2007 ND ND 4 September 2007 75.08 114.24 5 September 2007 75.74 114.04 6 September 2007 76.31 114.06 7 September 2007 76.71 114.34 10 September 2007 77.50 114.56 11 September 2007 78.24 114.94 12 September 2007 79.92 115.39 13 September 2007 80.10 115.14 14 September 2007 79.11 115.27 17 September 2007 80.57 115.64 18 September 2007 81.52 116.05 19 September 2007 81.94 116.51 20 September 2007 83.33 116.90 21 September 2007 83.36 117.17 24 September 2007 82.67 117.50 25 September 2007 81.64 117.19 26 September 2007 80.31 117.60 27 September 2007 82.89 118.08 28 September 2007 81.67 117.87 1 October 2007 80.25 118.34 2 October 2007 80.06 117.28 3 October 2007 79.98 117.38 4 October 2007 81.45 117.32 5 October 2007 81.23 116.79 8 October 2007 79.03 115.97 9 October 2007 80.27 115.77 10 October 2007 81.31 116.44 11 October 2007 83.09 116.59 12 October 2007 83.70 116.57 15 October 2007 86.14 117.46 16 October 2007 87.62 117.14 17 October 2007 87.41 116.72 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 18 October 2007 89.48 117.71 19 October 2007 88.61 117.81 22 October 2007 87.57 117.36 23 October 2007 86.48 117.57 24 October 2007 89.36 116.96 25 October 2007 92.97 117.25 26 October 2007 91.87 117.78 29 October 2007 93.53 118.21 30 October 2007 90.39 117.63 31 October 2007 94.54 118.24 1 November 2007 93.49 118.32 2 November 2007 95.94 117.71 5 November 2007 93.99 117.78 6 November 2007 93.99 118.44 7 November 2007 96.38 118.02 8 November 2007 95.47 117.87 9 November 2007 96.33 117.74 12 November 2007 94.63 117.39 13 November 2007 91.18 117.22 14 November 2007 94.10 117.90 15 November 2007 93.44 117.36 16 November 2007 95.10 117.55 19 November 2007 95.75 117.47 20 November 2007 98.83 117.52 21 November 2007 97.79 117.23 22 November 2007 ND ND 23 November 2007 98.18 117.88 26 November 2007 97.71 117.77 27 November 2007 94.43 117.46 28 November 2007 90.63 117.83 29 November 2007 91.02 118.54 30 November 2007 88.72 118.35 3 December 2007 89.32 118.05 4 December 2007 88.33 117.31 5 December 2007 87.50 117.15 6 December 2007 90.24 117.32 7 December 2007 88.29 117.98 10 December 2007 87.87 118.21 11 December 2007 90.03 118.23 12 December 2007 94.40 118.86 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 13 December 2007 92.26 118.41 14 December 2007 91.28 118.33 17 December 2007 90.64 117.63 18 December 2007 90.50 117.75 19 December 2007 91.05 118.29 20 December 2007 90.97 118.29 21 December 2007 93.32 118.68 24 December 2007 93.32 118.44 25 December 2007 ND ND 26 December 2007 95.98 118.72 27 December 2007 96.63 118.76 28 December 2007 96.01 118.39 31 December 2007 96.01 117.98 1 January 2008 ND ND 2 January 2008 99.63 118.74 3 January 2008 99.19 119.20 4 January 2008 97.92 119.78 7 January 2008 95.10 119.28 8 January 2008 96.34 119.33 9 January 2008 95.68 119.37 10 January 2008 93.72 118.95 11 January 2008 92.70 119.31 14 January 2008 94.21 119.91 15 January 2008 91.91 119.38 16 January 2008 90.85 119.27 17 January 2008 90.14 119.60 18 January 2008 90.58 119.73 21 January 2008 ND ND 22 January 2008 89.86 119.35 23 January 2008 87.32 118.64 24 January 2008 89.41 119.39 25 January 2008 90.71 119.83 28 January 2008 90.99 120.16 29 January 2008 91.65 120.99 30 January 2008 92.34 120.83 31 January 2008 91.76 121.64 1 February 2008 88.97 122.51 4 February 2008 90.02 122.84 5 February 2008 88.42 122.58 6 February 2008 87.15 123.14 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 7 February 2008 88.12 123.25 8 February 2008 91.78 123.53 11 February 2008 93.60 124.32 12 February 2008 92.79 124.42 13 February 2008 92.79 124.89 14 February 2008 95.47 126.39 15 February 2008 95.51 126.42 18 February 2008 ND ND 19 February 2008 100.01 127.58 20 February 2008 100.75 127.64 21 February 2008 98.39 128.49 22 February 2008 98.91 129.05 25 February 2008 99.41 130.23 26 February 2008 100.89 131.17 27 February 2008 99.65 131.71 28 February 2008 102.60 133.12 29 February 2008 101.85 133.76 3 March 2008 102.46 134.31 4 March 2008 99.52 134.04 5 March 2008 104.52 133.74 6 March 2008 105.48 133.09 7 March 2008 105.16 131.57 10 March 2008 107.90 130.78 11 March 2008 108.76 132.10 12 March 2008 109.93 132.32 13 March 2008 110.33 132.67 14 March 2008 110.21 133.06 17 March 2008 105.68 131.50 18 March 2008 109.42 131.32 19 March 2008 104.49 129.79 20 March 2008 104.49 127.82 21 March 2008 ND ND 24 March 2008 101.07 128.43 25 March 2008 100.98 129.61 26 March 2008 105.90 129.83 27 March 2008 107.59 129.94 28 March 2008 105.63 129.54 31 March 2008 101.59 128.51 1 April 2008 100.98 124.16 2 April 2008 104.84 124.32 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 3 April 2008 103.84 124.76 4 April 2008 106.23 125.20 7 April 2008 105.03 125.35 8 April 2008 108.50 125.22 9 April 2008 110.87 126.49 10 April 2008 110.12 127.56 11 April 2008 110.15 127.38 14 April 2008 111.76 127.77 15 April 2008 113.79 128.37 16 April 2008 114.93 128.90 17 April 2008 114.86 129.23 18 April 2008 116.69 128.95 21 April 2008 117.48 128.51 22 April 2008 119.38 129.47 23 April 2008 120.44 129.56 24 April 2008 117.16 129.54 25 April 2008 121.57 129.88 28 April 2008 118.75 130.33 29 April 2008 115.63 129.92 30 April 2008 113.46 129.93 1 May 2008 112.52 128.73 2 May 2008 116.32 128.90 5 May 2008 119.97 129.04 6 May 2008 121.85 129.82 7 May 2008 123.53 130.25 8 May 2008 123.70 130.60 9 May 2008 125.97 131.24 12 May 2008 124.24 131.44 13 May 2008 125.80 131.61 14 May 2008 124.23 131.09 15 May 2008 124.12 129.34 16 May 2008 126.30 129.83 19 May 2008 127.06 129.18 20 May 2008 129.08 128.17 21 May 2008 132.78 128.77 22 May 2008 130.22 128.16 23 May 2008 131.60 128.01 26 May 2008 ND ND 27 May 2008 128.85 127.80 28 May 2008 131.04 126.92 Date Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 29 May 2008 126.63 126.01 30 May 2008 127.36 126.09 2 June 2008 127.76 126.15 3 June 2008 124.31 125.84 4 June 2008 122.30 125.73 5 June 2008 127.79 126.36 6 June 2008 138.55 127.36 9 June 2008 134.35 127.15 10 June 2008 131.31 126.53 11 June 2008 136.38 127.68 12 June 2008 136.74 127.70 13 June 2008 134.87 128.53 16 June 2008 134.62 128.84 17 June 2008 134.01 128.72 18 June 2008 136.68 129.51 19 June 2008 131.93 129.34 20 June 2008 134.63 129.92 23 June 2008 136.00 130.12 24 June 2008 136.40 130.24 25 June 2008 134.00 130.42 26 June 2008 139.65 132.08 27 June 2008 140.21 132.23 30 June 2008 140.00 131.81 1 July 2008 140.97 132.33 2 July 2008 143.57 133.01 3 July 2008 145.28 132.07 4 July 2008 ND ND 7 July 2008 141.38 129.15 8 July 2008 136.04 129.18 9 July 2008 136.06 129.18 10 July 2008 141.66 129.87 11 July 2008* 145.66 130.64 14 July 2008 145.18 129.94 15 July 2008 138.74 129.63 16 July 2008 134.60 129.60 17 July 2008 129.29 129.17 18 July 2008 128.88 128.73 21 July 2008 131.04 127.98 22 July 2008 127.95 127.59 23 July 2008 123.69 126.70 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 24 July 2008 124.74 126.75 25 July 2008 123.26 126.83 28 July 2008 124.74 126.73 29 July 2008 122.19 126.96 30 July 2008 126.77 126.91 31 July 2008 124.08 127.14 1 August 2008 123.26 126.58 4 August 2008 121.41 124.04 5 August 2008 119.17 123.76 6 August 2008 118.58 123.51 7 August 2008 120.02 124.62 8 August 2008 115.20 123.28 11 August 2008 114.45 122.40 12 August 2008 113.02 122.14 13 August 2008 116.00 123.09 14 August 2008 115.00 123.01 15 August 2008 113.77 121.79 18 August 2008 112.88 122.52 19 August 2008 114.53 122.91 20 August 2008 114.98 123.02 21 August 2008 120.93 124.74 22 August 2008 114.70 124.28 25 August 2008 115.27 124.03 26 August 2008 116.77 123.17 27 August 2008 118.65 123.29 28 August 2008 116.09 121.66 29 August 2008 115.96 121.31 1 September 2008 ND ND 2 September 2008 110.21 120.03 3 September 2008 109.35 120.21 4 September 2008 107.89 120.51 5 September 2008 106.23 118.80 8 September 2008 106.34 118.76 9 September 2008 103.26 118.29 10 September 2008 102.58 118.00 11 September 2008 100.87 118.10 12 September 2008 101.18 118.64 15 September 2008 95.71 117.15 16 September 2008 91.15 115.21 17 September 2008 97.16 115.70 WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 18 September 2008 97.88 114.96 19 September 2008 104.55 116.21 22 September 2008 120.92 117.69 23 September 2008 107.86 117.23 24 September 2008 106.73 116.89 25 September 2008 108.02 117.04 26 September 2008 106.90 116.65 29 September 2008 96.38 114.87 30 September 2008 100.64 114.10 1 October 2008 98.53 113.85 2 October 2008 93.97 112.03 3 October 2008 93.89 111.38 6 October 2008 87.82 109.32 7 October 2008 90.06 108.34 8 October 2008 88.95 107.15 9 October 2008 86.60 106.16 10 October 2008 77.70 102.80 13 October 2008 81.19 104.41 14 October 2008 78.63 104.16 15 October 2008 74.55 102.34 16 October 2008 69.85 101.05 17 October 2008 71.85 101.58 20 October 2008 74.64 99.90 21 October 2008 70.89 98.68 22 October 2008 65.96 97.33 23 October 2008 66.74 96.75 24 October 2008 63.05 95.40 27 October 2008 63.22 95.87 28 October 2008 62.73 96.68 29 October 2008 68.70 98.90 30 October 2008 65.96 96.17 31 October 2008 67.81 94.72 3 November 2008 63.91 94.86 4 November 2008 70.53 96.38 5 November 2008 65.30 94.68 6 November 2008 60.77 93.72 7 November 2008 61.04 93.35 10 November 2008 62.41 93.83 11 November 2008 59.33 92.71 12 November 2008 56.16 92.22 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 13 November 2008 58.24 92.52 14 November 2008 57.04 92.97 17 November 2008 54.95 92.17 18 November 2008 54.39 91.75 19 November 2008 53.62 89.54 20 November 2008 49.62 87.48 21 November 2008 49.13 87.31 24 November 2008 53.30 88.32 25 November 2008 49.77 87.89 26 November 2008 54.44 88.89 27 November 2008 ND ND 28 November 2008 54.44 89.20 1 December 2008 49.28 87.45 2 December 2008 46.96 86.53 3 December 2008 46.79 86.09 4 December 2008 43.67 83.69 5 December 2008 40.81 82.56 8 December 2008 43.71 83.59 9 December 2008 42.07 83.02 10 December 2008 43.52 83.60 11 December 2008 47.98 83.94 12 December 2008 46.28 83.22 15 December 2008 44.51 83.91 16 December 2008 43.60 84.54 17 December 2008 40.06 85.44 18 December 2008 36.22 85.52 19 December 2008 33.87 85.09 22 December 2008 30.81 86.34 23 December 2008 33.98 85.38 24 December 2008 32.35 85.37 25 December 2008 ND ND 26 December 2008 32.35 85.43 29 December 2008 40.02 85.55 30 December 2008 39.03 86.32 31 December 2008 44.60 87.13 1 January 2009 ND ND 2 January 2009 46.34 88.05 5 January 2009 48.81 88.33 6 January 2009 48.58 90.20 7 January 2009 42.63 89.69 Date WTI oil (Dollars per barrel) CRB nonfuel (Index, Jan. 3, 2007 = 100) 8 January 2009 41.70 89.27 9 January 2009 40.83 90.49 12 January 2009 37.59 89.28 13 January 2009 37.78 89.17 14 January 2009 37.28 89.00 15 January 2009 35.40 88.98 16 January 2009 36.51 89.89 19 January 2009 ND ND 20 January 2009 38.74 89.04 21 January 2009 42.25 88.92 22 January 2009 42.27 89.05 23 January 2009 45.47 89.54 26 January 2009 45.73 89.84 Date * Peak oil price Return to table Top-right panel Financial Investors' Net Oil Futures Positions Thousands of contracts Period Noncommercial traders Index investors 8 January 2008 97.09 ND 15 January 2008 88.86 ND 22 January 2008 32.39 ND 29 January 2008 21.34 ND 5 February 2008 20.83 ND 12 February 2008 31.57 ND 19 February 2008 55.20 ND 26 February 2008 85.67 ND 4 March 2008 102.06 ND 11 March 2008 115.15 ND 18 March 2008 83.12 ND 25 March 2008 44.96 ND 31 March 2008 ND 398.00 1 April 2008 37.70 ND 8 April 2008 57.17 ND 15 April 2008 63.53 ND 22 April 2008 79.85 ND 29 April 2008 70.30 ND 6 May 2008 72.04 ND 13 May 2008 76.11 ND 20 May 2008 54.15 ND Period Noncommercial traders Index investors 27 May 2008 39.02 ND 3 June 2008 30.87 ND 10 June 2008 22.28 ND 17 June 2008 5.73 ND 24 June 2008 20.60 ND 30 June 2008 ND 363.00 1 July 2008 26.51 ND 8 July 2008 14.15 ND 15 July 2008* 22.38 ND 22 July 2008 -3.64 ND 29 July 2008 -0.66 ND 5 August 2008 -5.55 ND 12 August 2008 -9.13 ND 19 August 2008 11.66 ND 26 August 2008 20.17 ND 2 September 2008 14.33 ND 9 September 2008 6.34 ND 16 September 2008 19.38 ND 23 September 2008 41.73 ND 30 September 2008 40.09 ND 7 October 2008 3.69 ND 14 October 2008 -1.90 ND 21 October 2008 0.48 ND 28 October 2008 -8.41 ND 4 November 2008 -10.54 ND 11 November 2008 -52.98 ND 18 November 2008 10.99 ND 25 November 2008 2.79 ND 2 December 2008 2.25 ND 9 December 2008 10.81 ND 16 December 2008 64.12 ND 22 December 2008 72.57 ND 30 December 2008 64.55 ND * Peak oil price on 11 July 2008 Return to table Other approximate values: Noncommercial traders, 3 December 2007: 34.4. 10 December 2007: 38.1. 17 December 2007: 29.3. 24 December 2007: 48.6. 31 December 2007: 87.8. 6 January 2009: 76.2. 13 January 2009: 53.7. Index investors, 31 December 2007: 408. Source: CFTC. Middle-left panel U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Weekly Millions of barrels Period Deviation from historical average 5 January 2007 14.65 12 January 2007 20.76 19 January 2007 20.90 26 January 2007 22.94 2 February 2007 21.57 9 February 2007 19.39 16 February 2007 21.50 23 February 2007 21.33 2 March 2007 14.65 9 March 2007 13.40 16 March 2007 14.89 23 March 2007 11.60 30 March 2007 13.47 6 April 2007 12.44 13 April 2007 9.85 20 April 2007 10.33 27 April 2007 9.91 4 May 2007 14.80 11 May 2007 15.99 18 May 2007 18.08 25 May 2007 16.24 1 June 2007 16.61 8 June 2007 17.76 15 June 2007 25.72 22 June 2007 28.35 29 June 2007 32.56 6 July 2007 32.92 13 July 2007 34.43 20 July 2007 35.28 27 July 2007 30.73 3 August 2007 28.43 10 August 2007 24.95 17 August 2007 28.53 24 August 2007 26.73 31 August 2007 24.45 7 September 2007 18.37 14 September 2007 15.43 21 September 2007 18.21 28 September 2007 20.28 Period Deviation from historical average 5 October 2007 17.26 12 October 2007 16.79 19 October 2007 9.24 26 October 2007 3.09 2 November 2007 0.91 9 November 2007 4.63 16 November 2007 4.46 23 November 2007 4.91 30 November 2007 -2.11 7 December 2007 -1.07 14 December 2007 -6.90 21 December 2007 -8.45 28 December 2007 -10.75 4 January 2008 -17.11 11 January 2008 -13.50 18 January 2008 -11.85 25 January 2008 -8.95 1 February 2008 -2.67 8 February 2008 -3.14 15 February 2008 -0.47 22 February 2008 1.23 29 February 2008 -3.36 7 March 2008 0.38 14 March 2008 -1.92 21 March 2008 -4.27 28 March 2008 0.61 4 April 2008 -4.49 11 April 2008 -8.44 18 April 2008 -7.61 25 April 2008 -5.36 2 May 2008 -0.81 9 May 2008 -0.51 16 May 2008 -5.70 23 May 2008 -14.47 30 May 2008 -19.15 6 June 2008 -22.78 13 June 2008 -22.96 20 June 2008 -21.09 27 June 2008 -22.01 4 July 2008 -26.28 Period Deviation from historical average 11 July 2008* -21.37 18 July 2008 -20.98 25 July 2008 -19.11 1 August 2008 -15.58 8 August 2008 -14.21 15 August 2008 -3.13 22 August 2008 -1.62 29 August 2008 -1.83 5 September 2008 -6.51 12 September 2008 -11.91 19 September 2008 -12.49 26 September 2008 -7.28 3 October 2008 0.41 10 October 2008 3.77 17 October 2008 4.69 24 October 2008 2.93 31 October 2008 0.72 7 November 2008 1.64 14 November 2008 4.14 21 November 2008 12.33 28 November 2008 12.77 5 December 2008 14.67 12 December 2008 16.95 19 December 2008 15.61 26 December 2008 17.91 2 January 2009 25.66 * Peak oil price on 11 July 2008 Return to table Other approximate values: 9 January 2009: 26.2. 16 January 2009: 31.6. Middle-right panel Oil Demand Four-quarter percent change Period World Advanced economies Emerging economies 2007:Q1 0.40 -2.01 3.21 2007:Q2 1.48 -0.73 3.95 2007:Q3 1.06 -0.96 3.36 2007:Q4 1.46 -0.60 3.80 2008:Q1 0.80 -1.78 3.67 2008:Q2 0.75 -2.17 3.87 2008:Q3* -0.58 -5.12 4.37 Period World Advanced economies Emerging economies 2008:Q4 -2.19 -4.72 0.55 * Peak oil price on 11 July 2008 Return to table Bottom-left panel Oil Production Millions of barrels per day Period OPEC* Non-OPEC January 2007 28.39 49.84 February 2007 27.93 50.24 March 2007 28.03 49.99 April 2007 27.96 50.13 May 2007 27.80 49.77 June 2007 27.87 49.39 July 2007 28.15 49.72 August 2007 28.05 49.08 September 2007 28.51 48.89 October 2007 28.93 49.83 November 2007 28.56 49.75 December 2007 28.80 49.61 January 2008 29.35 49.76 February 2008 29.35 49.90 March 2008 28.82 49.88 April 2008 28.62 49.75 May 2008 28.71 49.82 June 2008 29.41 49.53 July 2008** 29.39 50.02 August 2008 29.16 48.79 September 2008 29.04 47.89 October 2008 29.00 49.16 November 2008 28.01 49.79 December 2008 27.67 50.13 January 2009 target 24.85 ND * Excluding Indonesia and Iraq. Return to table ** Peak oil price on 11 July 2008 Return to table Bottom-right panel Commodity Price Outlook Period Oil import price (Dollars per barrel) January 2007 53.11 Nonfuel index (Jan. 2007 = 100) 100.00 Period Oil import price (Dollars per barrel) Nonfuel index (Jan. 2007 = 100) February 2007 52.60 102.22 March 2007 56.21 104.38 April 2007 60.95 109.60 May 2007 64.13 110.86 June 2007 65.36 109.33 July 2007 69.08 108.66 August 2007 70.24 103.49 September 2007 70.45 105.13 October 2007 74.66 106.45 November 2007 81.96 105.75 December 2007 84.01 104.60 January 2008 85.41 111.12 February 2008 85.66 118.32 March 2008 91.56 122.57 April 2008 98.88 121.87 May 2008 108.45 120.23 June 2008 118.63 121.21 July 2008 124.68 121.87 August 2008 118.64 114.62 September 2008 107.12 108.65 October 2008 91.54 92.22 November 2008 64.99 84.42 December 2008 47.35 77.65 January 2009 45.78 79.66 February 2009 45.51 79.37 March 2009 45.37 79.58 April 2009 44.26 79.78 May 2009 44.42 80.04 June 2009 44.99 80.25 July 2009 46.10 80.48 August 2009 46.94 81.06 September 2009 47.51 80.77 October 2009 48.07 81.42 November 2009 48.62 81.54 December 2009 49.14 81.79 January 2010 49.82 82.03 February 2010 50.49 82.24 March 2010 51.11 82.45 April 2010 51.68 82.61 Forecast Period Oil import price (Dollars per barrel) Nonfuel index (Jan. 2007 = 100) May 2010 52.21 82.74 June 2010 52.69 82.84 July 2010 53.14 82.95 August 2010 53.59 83.05 September 2010 54.03 83.15 October 2010 54.45 83.26 November 2010 54.83 83.37 December 2010 55.19 83.51 Exhibit 15 (Last Exhibit) Prices Top-left panel Consumer Price Indexes Four-quarter percent change Period Canada United Kingdom Euro area Japan 2007:Q1 1.90 2.88 1.90 -0.10 2007:Q2 2.14 2.54 1.87 -0.07 2007:Q3 2.10 1.80 1.89 -0.13 2007:Q4 2.44 2.09 2.90 0.53 2008:Q1 1.78 2.39 3.36 0.97 2008:Q2 2.27 3.36 3.62 1.36 2008:Q3 3.37 4.79 3.84 2.16 2008:Q4 2.08 3.86 2.29 1.19 2009:Q1 1.15 2.56 1.07 -0.05 2009:Q2 -0.28 1.40 0.99 -0.93 2009:Q3 -1.28 0.13 0.73 -1.94 2009:Q4 -0.07 0.58 1.50 -1.47 2010:Q1 0.81 2.38 2.25 -0.62 2010:Q2 1.31 2.44 1.95 -0.31 2010:Q3 1.50 2.50 1.92 -0.30 2010:Q4 1.50 2.37 1.90 -0.30 Forecast Top-right panel Consumer Price Indexes Four-quarter percent change Period Emerging Asia Latin America 2007:Q1 2.69 4.16 2007:Q2 3.06 4.16 Period Emerging Asia Latin America 2007:Q3 4.61 4.26 2007:Q4 5.36 4.27 2008:Q1 6.52 4.47 2008:Q2 7.09 5.50 2008:Q3 6.06 6.10 2008:Q4 3.59 6.60 2009:Q1 1.20 6.38 2009:Q2 -0.10 5.43 2009:Q3 -0.58 4.50 2009:Q4 0.76 3.69 2010:Q1 1.73 3.38 2010:Q2 2.00 3.34 2010:Q3 2.20 3.31 2010:Q4 2.35 3.29 Forecast Middle-left panel CPI Excluding Food and Energy* 12-month percent change Period Canada United Kingdom Euro area Japan January 2006 1.27 0.90 1.27 -0.63 February 2006 1.23 1.04 1.33 -0.52 March 2006 1.40 0.93 1.35 -0.56 April 2006 1.59 0.96 1.55 -0.61 May 2006 1.72 0.75 1.37 -0.55 June 2006 1.45 0.94 1.48 -0.39 July 2006 1.29 0.58 1.49 -0.37 August 2006 1.30 0.84 1.42 -0.38 September 2006 1.51 1.18 1.43 -0.49 October 2006 1.70 1.20 1.50 -0.43 November 2006 1.46 1.35 1.50 -0.20 December 2006 1.43 1.53 1.55 -0.26 January 2007 1.63 1.37 1.69 -0.24 February 2007 1.72 1.52 1.88 -0.29 March 2007 1.68 1.71 1.82 -0.38 April 2007 1.93 1.54 1.85 -0.25 May 2007 1.81 1.67 1.88 -0.28 June 2007 2.01 1.65 1.82 -0.43 July 2007 2.35 1.37 1.76 -0.43 August 2007 2.21 1.36 1.85 -0.24 Period Canada United Kingdom Euro area Japan September 2007 2.12 1.04 1.78 -0.28 October 2007 1.89 1.14 1.69 -0.22 November 2007 1.75 1.01 1.76 -0.15 December 2007 1.71 0.96 1.73 -0.16 January 2008 1.22 0.90 1.60 -0.06 February 2008 1.20 0.80 1.63 -0.08 March 2008 0.98 0.75 1.86 0.05 April 2008 0.98 1.01 1.52 -0.20 May 2008 1.09 1.14 1.61 -0.18 June 2008 1.18 1.22 1.68 -0.05 July 2008 1.06 1.48 1.59 0.05 August 2008 1.13 1.61 1.78 -0.04 September 2008 0.95 1.82 1.79 0.08 October 2008 0.75 1.45 1.87 0.02 November 2008 1.39 1.57 1.87 -0.10 December 2008 1.27 0.62 1.83 ND * Staff estimates. Return to text Middle-right panel CPI Excluding Food* 12-month percent change Period Emerging Asia Latin America January 2006 3.00 5.92 February 2006 2.95 5.84 March 2006 2.93 5.84 April 2006 2.88 5.70 May 2006 3.14 5.51 June 2006 3.01 5.35 July 2006 2.95 5.36 August 2006 2.95 5.35 September 2006 2.84 5.17 October 2006 2.43 4.78 November 2006 2.32 4.54 December 2006 2.29 4.59 January 2007 1.98 4.51 February 2007 2.20 4.55 March 2007 2.17 4.24 April 2007 1.99 4.06 May 2007 1.87 4.31 June 2007 1.86 4.45 Period Emerging Asia Latin America July 2007 1.68 4.16 August 2007 1.55 4.09 September 2007 1.64 3.98 October 2007 1.97 4.23 November 2007 2.40 4.52 December 2007 2.39 4.60 January 2008 2.75 4.30 February 2008 2.79 4.39 March 2008 3.21 4.67 April 2008 3.35 4.71 May 2008 3.62 4.84 June 2008 4.67 5.00 July 2008 5.05 5.42 August 2008 4.75 5.81 September 2008 4.46 6.17 October 2008 3.98 6.33 November 2008 2.71 6.15 December 2008 ND 5.93 * Staff estimates. Return to text Bottom-left panel Policy Rates Percent Period Canada United Kingdom Euro area Japan 2 January 2007 4.25 5.00 3.50 ND 4 January 2007 4.25 5.00 3.50 0.25 11 January 2007 4.25 5.25 3.50 0.25 21 February 2007 4.25 5.25 3.50 0.50 8 March 2007 4.25 5.25 3.75 0.50 10 May 2007 4.25 5.50 3.75 0.50 6 June 2007 4.25 5.50 4.00 0.50 5 July 2007 4.25 5.75 4.00 0.50 10 July 2007 4.50 5.75 4.00 0.50 4 December 2007 4.25 5.75 4.00 0.50 6 December 2007 4.25 5.50 4.00 0.50 22 January 2008 4.00 5.50 4.00 0.50 7 February 2008 4.00 5.25 4.00 0.50 4 March 2008 3.50 5.25 4.00 0.50 10 April 2008 3.50 5.00 4.00 0.50 22 April 2008 3.00 5.00 4.00 0.50 Period Canada United Kingdom Euro area Japan 3 July 2008 3.00 5.00 4.25 0.50 8 October 2008 2.50 4.50 3.75 0.50 21 October 2008 2.25 4.50 3.75 0.50 31 October 2008 2.25 4.50 3.75 0.30 6 November 2008 2.25 3.00 3.25 0.30 4 December 2008 2.25 2.00 2.50 0.30 9 December 2008 1.50 2.00 2.50 0.30 19 December 2008 1.50 2.00 2.50 0.10 8 January 2009 1.50 1.50 2.50 0.10 15 January 2009 1.50 1.50 2.00 0.10 20 January 2009 1.00 1.50 2.00 0.10 16 February 2009 0.50 0.75 1.25 0.10 1 April 2009 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.10 24 February 2010 0.50 0.75 1.25 0.10 25 May 2010 0.50 1.00 1.50 0.10 24 August 2010 0.50 1.25 1.75 0.10 16 November 2010 0.75 1.50 2.00 0.10 31 December 2010 0.75 1.50 2.00 0.10 Forecast Bottom-right panel Policy Rates Percent Period Brazil Mexico China Korea 1 January 2007 ND 7.00 6.12 ND 2 January 2007 ND 7.00 6.12 4.50 3 January 2007 13.25 7.00 6.12 4.50 24 January 2007 13.00 7.00 6.12 4.50 1 March 2007 13.00 7.00 6.39 4.50 7 March 2007 12.75 7.00 6.39 4.50 19 April 2007 12.50 7.00 6.39 4.50 27 April 2007 12.50 7.25 6.39 4.50 1 May 2007 12.50 7.25 6.57 4.50 6 June 2007 12.00 7.25 6.57 4.50 2 July 2007 12.00 7.25 6.84 4.50 12 July 2007 12.00 7.25 6.84 4.75 19 July 2007 11.50 7.25 6.84 4.75 1 August 2007 11.50 7.25 7.02 4.75 9 August 2007 11.50 7.25 7.02 5.00 3 September 2007 11.50 7.25 7.29 5.00 Period Brazil Mexico China Korea 6 September 2007 11.25 7.25 7.29 5.00 26 October 2007 11.25 7.50 7.29 5.00 3 December 2007 11.25 7.50 7.47 5.00 17 April 2008 11.75 7.50 7.47 5.00 5 June 2008 12.25 7.50 7.47 5.00 20 June 2008 12.25 7.75 7.47 5.00 18 July 2008 12.25 8.00 7.47 5.00 24 July 2008 13.00 8.00 7.47 5.00 7 August 2008 13.00 8.00 7.47 5.25 15 August 2008 13.00 8.25 7.47 5.25 1 September 2008 13.00 8.25 7.20 5.25 11 September 2008 13.75 8.25 7.20 5.25 1 October 2008 13.75 8.25 6.66 5.25 9 October 2008 13.75 8.25 6.66 5.00 27 October 2008 13.75 8.25 6.66 4.25 3 November 2008 13.75 8.25 5.58 4.25 7 November 2008 13.75 8.25 5.58 4.00 1 December 2008 13.75 8.25 5.31 4.00 11 December 2008 13.75 8.25 5.31 3.00 1 January 2009 13.75 8.25 4.77 3.00 9 January 2009 13.75 8.25 4.77 2.50 16 January 2009 13.75 7.75 4.77 2.50 19 January 2009 13.75 7.50 4.77 2.50 21 January 2009 12.75 7.50 4.77 2.50 16 February 2009 12.50 7.50 4.77 2.50 1 April 2009 11.50 6.75 4.23 1.50 24 August 2009 11.25 6.25 4.23 1.50 24 November 2009 11.00 6.25 4.23 1.50 25 May 2010 11.00 6.25 4.50 1.50 24 August 2010 11.00 6.25 4.77 1.75 16 November 2010 11.00 6.25 5.04 1.75 31 December 2010 11.00 6.25 5.04 1.75 Forecast Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. Madigan Material for Briefing on FOMC Participants' Economic Projections Brian Madigan January 27, 2009 Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR) Exhibit 1: Economic Projections of FOMC Participants for 2009 to 2011 and over the Longer Run Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2011 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2004 through 2008. Change in real GDP Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 -0.2 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 0.2 4.5 5.5 3.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - -0.5 3.3 5.0 2.7 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - -1.3 2.5 3.8 2.5 Lower End of Range - - - - - -2.5 1.5 2.3 2.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.9 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 9.2 9.2 8.0 5.5 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.8 8.3 7.5 5.0 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.5 8.0 6.7 4.8 Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.0 7.0 5.5 4.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Longer Run 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 1.7 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.7 Lower End of Range - - - - - -0.5 0.7 0.2 1.5 Actual Unemployment rate Percent Actual PCE inflation Percent Actual Core PCE inflation Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 1.5 1.7 1.8 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.1 1.5 1.5 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.9 0.8 0.7 Lower End of Range - - - - - 0.6 0.4 0.0 Actual Exhibit 2: Economic Projections of FOMC Participants for 2009 to 2011 and over the Longer Run Real GDP Growth 2009 October projections Memo: Greenbook October Greenbook -1.3 to -0.5 2.5 to 3.3 3.8 to 5.0 2.5 to 2.7 -0.2 to 1.1 2.3 to 3.2 2.8 to 3.6 2.5 to 2.7 -2.5 to 0.2 1.5 to 4.5 2.3 to 5.5 2.4 to 3.0 -1.0 to 1.8 1.0 to 4.5 2.0 to 5.0 2.0 to 2.9 -0.8 2.6 4.9 2.7 -0.1 2.3 4.5 2.7 2010 2011 Longer-Run 8.5 to 8.8 8.0 to 8.3 6.7 to 7.5 4.8 to 5.0 7.1 to 7.6 6.5 to 7.3 5.5 to 6.6 4.8 to 5.0 8.0 to 9.2 7.0 to 9.2 5.5 to 8.0 4.5 to 5.5 6.6 to 8.0 5.5 to 8.0 4.9 to 7.3 4.5 to 5.8 8.4 8.1 6.7 4.8 7.2 7.2 6.4 4.8 2010 2011 Longer-Run 0.3 to 1.0 1.0 to 1.5 0.9 to 1.7 1.7 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 1.7 1.7 to 1.8 -0.5 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.8 0.2 to 2.1 1.5 to 2.0 1.0 to 2.2 1.1 to 1.9 0.8 to 1.8 1.5 to 2.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 ----- 1.4 1.4 1.1 ----- 2009 Range Longer-Run 2009 October projections 2011 2009 Central Tendency 2010 2010 2011 0.9 to 1.1 0.8 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.5 1.5 to 2.0 1.3 to 1.8 1.3 to 1.7 0.6 to 1.5 0.4 to 1.7 0.0 to 1.8 1.3 to 2.1 1.1 to 1.9 0.8 to 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 Unemployment Rate Central Tendency October projections Range October projections Memo: Greenbook October Greenbook PCE Inflation Central Tendency October projections Range October projections Memo: Greenbook October Greenbook Core PCE Inflation Central Tendency October projections Range October projections Memo: Greenbook October Greenbook Exhibit 3: Risks and Uncertainty in Economic Projections Uncertainty about GDP Growth Lower Similar Higher January 0 0 16 October 0 0 17 Downside Balanced January 13 3 0 October 15 2 0 Risks to GDP Growth Upside Uncertainty about PCE Inflation Lower Similar Higher January 0 2 14 October 2 2 13 Downside Balanced January 7 9 0 October 6 10 1 Risks to PCE Inflation Upside Exhibit 4: GDP Growth Projections of FOMC Participants for 2009 to 2011 and over the Longer Run Histograms, four panels. Number of participants 2009 Percent range 2010 2011 Longer Run January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections -2.6 - -2.5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.4 - -2.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.2 - -2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.0 - -1.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.8 - -1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.6 - -1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.4 - -1.3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.2 - -1.1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.0 - -0.9 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.8 - -0.7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.6 - -0.5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.4 - -0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 Percent range 2010 2011 Longer Run January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections -0.2 - -0.1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 - 0.1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 - 0.3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 - 0.5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 - 0.7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 - 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 - 1.1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.2 - 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 - 1.5 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 1.6 - 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.8 - 1.9 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 2.0 - 2.1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 2.2 - 2.3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2.4 - 2.5 0 0 1 4 0 1 10 9 2.6 - 2.7 0 0 1 1 1 1 4 4 2.8 - 2.9 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 3 3.0 - 3.1 0 0 5 4 0 2 1 0 3.2 - 3.3 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 3.4 - 3.5 0 0 1 1 1 4 0 0 3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 4.0 - 4.1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4.4 - 4.5 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Exhibit 5: Unemployment Projections of FOMC Participants for 2009 to 2011 and over the Longer Run Histograms, four panels. Number of participants 2009 Percent range 2010 2011 Longer Run January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections 4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 8 5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 1 5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 3 2 2 0 0 6.6 - 6.7 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 0 6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 7.0 - 7.1 0 3 1 2 2 1 0 0 7.2 - 7.3 0 4 0 2 3 1 0 0 7.4 - 7.5 0 5 1 1 3 0 0 0 7.6 - 7.7 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 7.8 - 7.9 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 - 8.1 2 1 4 1 1 0 0 0 8.2 - 8.3 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 8.4 - 8.5 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 8.6 - 8.7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.8 - 8.9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.0 - 9.1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 9.2 - 9.3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Exhibit 6: PCE Inflation Projections of FOMC Participants for 2009 to 2011 and over the Longer Run Histograms, four panels. Number of participants 2009 Percent range 2010 2011 Longer Run January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections -0.5 - -0.4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.3 - -0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.1 - 0.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2009 Percent range 2010 2011 Longer Run January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections 0.1 - 0.2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.3 - 0.4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7 - 0.8 4 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0.9 - 1.0 3 1 4 0 2 0 0 0 1.1 - 1.2 1 2 4 1 1 1 0 0 1.3 - 1.4 0 3 1 3 1 3 0 0 1.5 - 1.6 1 2 3 6 5 7 3 3 1.7 - 1.8 0 5 3 5 3 5 2 11 1.9 - 2.0 0 1 0 2 0 0 11 3 2.1 - 2.2 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Exhibit 7: Core PCE Inflation Projections of FOMC Participants for 2009 to 2011 Histograms, three panels. Number of participants 2009 Percent range 2010 2011 January projections October projections January projections October projections January projections October projections -0.1 - 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 - 0.4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0.7 - 0.8 0 0 4 0 2 1 0.9 - 1.0 11 0 3 0 2 0 1.1 - 1.2 2 0 2 1 1 2 1.3 - 1.4 1 2 2 5 3 3 1.5 - 1.6 1 4 3 6 4 7 1.7 - 1.8 0 4 1 4 2 4 1.9 - 2.0 0 6 0 1 0 0 2.1 - 2.2 0 1 0 0 0 0 NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. Madigan Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives Brian Madigan January 27-28, 2009 Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR) Exhibit 1 Unconventional Policy Tools Policy communications • About the federal funds rate ◦ Quantitative expectations ◦ Qualitative expectations ◦ Conditional expectations • About other policy tools ◦ Amounts and time frame • About inflation outlook and objectives ◦ Explicit numerical inflation objective ◦ Longer-term projections ◦ Express concern about undesirably low inflation Credit policies • Supporting or substituting for dysfunctional markets Transactions under open market authority • Swap arrangements • MBS purchases • Treasury purchases [Note: In the January FOMC Statement Alternatives, emphasis (strike-through) indicates strike-through text in the original document, and strong emphasis (bold) indicates underlined text in the original document.] Alternative A The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened somewhat more than anticipated. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have declined steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are sizable significant. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for an extended period of economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term. The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. [Alt. 1: To provide further support to activity in housing markets, the Committee decided to expand its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities to $750 billion this year from its previously announced total of $500 billion. The Committee anticipates completing these purchases by the end of the third quarter. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities as needed to improve overall financial conditions.] [Alt. 2: To help improve overall financial conditions, the Committee decided to purchase up to $250 billion of longer-term Treasury securities this year. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand such purchases as conditions warrant.] Next month, the Federal Reserve will implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability. Alternative B The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the outlook for the economy remains weak. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities as needed to improve if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. Next month, the Federal Reserve will implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability. Alternative C The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the outlook for the economy remains weak. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain tight. The Committee anticipates that a recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, supported in part by additional fiscal measures and the monetary and liquidity policies already in place. The declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months have significantly reduced overall price inflation. With economic slack likely to persist, the Committee expects that both overall and core consumer price inflation will remain low. The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets. Next month, the Federal Reserve will implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments. December FOMC Statement The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent. Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters. The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity. 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