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Accessible Version Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee January 2627, 2010 Presentation Materials Presentation Materials (PDF) Pages 213 to 260 of the Transcript Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Sack Material for FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations Brian Sack January 26, 2010 Class II FOMC Restricted FR Exhibit 1 Topleft panel (1) Title: US Equity Prices (S&P 500) Series: Standard & Poor's 500 Index Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 22, 2010 Description: After increasing over much of the intermeeting period, US equity prices have decreased recently. A vertical line marks the FOMC meeting of December 1516, 2009. Source: Bloomberg Topright panel (2) Title: VIX Index Series: Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 22, 2010 Description: Option implied volatility has increased markedly in the past week. Source: Bloomberg Middleleft panel (3) Title: Corporate Debt Spreads Series: High yield and investment grade corporate debt spreads Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 21, 2010 Description: Corporate debt spreads continue to narrow. Source: Bank of America Middleright panel (4) Title: High Yield Corporate Bond Risk Premium Series: Quarterly average high yield U.S. corporate bond credit risk premium based on a persistent default rate model Horizon: March 31, 1997 December 31, 2009 Description: The bond risk premium continues to retrace the sharp increase that occurred in 2008. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Bottomleft panel (5) Title: CMBS Spreads Series: CMBS spreads for junior, mezzanine and super senior tranches Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 22, 2010 Description: CMBS spreads narrow over intermeeting period. Source: JP Morgan Chase Bottomright panel (6) Title: US Equity Indices for Financial Firms Series: Large and regional bank indices Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 22, 2010 Description: Regional bank equity prices continue to increase while large bank equity prices have declined since January 4, 2010. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exhibit 2 Topleft panel (7) Title: Implied Federal Funds Rate Series: Federal funds rates implied by Eurodollar and federal funds futures contracts Horizon: 12/15/09, 1/22/10 Description: The market's expectation for the future path of the federal funds rate has shifted down since the last FOMC meeting. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Topright panel (8) Title: Treasury Yields Series: Yields for the 2year, 5year, and 10year Treasury note Horizon: August 1, 2008 December 22, 2009 Description: The 2year Treasury yield fell modestly, while longerterm yields ended the period roughly unchanged. Source: Bloomberg Middleleft panel (9) Title: Premium for Skew toward Higher Long Rates Series: 3month, 10year payer skew, 100 bps outofthemoney puts less atthemoney options Horizon: August 1, 2003 January 22, 2010 Description: The premium for protection against a sizable increase in longerterm interest rates has been increasing. Source: JP Morgan Chase Middleright panel (10) Title: 5Year 5Year Forward Breakeven Rates Series: 5year, 5year forward breakeven inflation rates from Barclays and from the Board of Governors Horizon: January 1, 2002 January 21, 2010 Description: Breakeven inflation rates have increased since late 2008. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Barclays Capital Bottomleft panel (11) 5Year 5Year Forward Breakeven Statistics* Current PreCrisis Percent Level Range Rank Barclays 2.77 1.632.88 98.2 Board of Governors 3.06 2.313.36 89.2 * Precrisis range is January 2002 July 2007 Return to text Source: Barclays Capital, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Bottomright panel (12) Title: Gross Treasury Coupon Issuance Series: Gross issuance of TIPS and 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 30year notes and bonds Horizon: 1992 projected levels for 2010 Description: The issuance of nominal coupons is increasing dramatically while the issuance of TIPS is growing at a slower pace. Source: US Treasury, Wrightson ICAP Exhibit 3 Topleft panel (13) Title: Weekly Pace of MBS Purchases Series: Monthly average of agency MBS purchases and projected path of weekly agency MBS purchases Horizon: January 2009 March 2010 Description: Agency MBS purchases continue to taper and are on track to meet the $1.25 trillion target. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Topright panel (14) Title: Weekly Pace of Agency Debt Purchases Series: Monthly average of agency debt purchases and projected path of weekly agency debt purchases Horizon: January 2009 March 2010 Description: Agency debt purchases have fallen behind their intended schedule. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middleleft panel (15) Title: MBS Spreads Series: Fannie Mae fixedrate current coupon optionadjusted spreads to Treasury and to swap Horizon: August 1, 2000 January 22, 2010 Description: MBS spreads remain tight, despite the slower pace of purchases. Source: Barclays Capital Middleright panel (16) Title: Agency Debt Spread Series: Fannie Mae 5year benchmark spread to Treasury Horizon: August 1, 2000 January 25, 2010 Description: Agency debt spreads remain tight, despite the slower pace of purchases. Source: JP Morgan Chase Bottomleft panel (17) Title: MBS Fails Series: Dealerreported failures to deliver MBS securities. Horizon: January 1, 2002 January 13, 2010 Description: The MBS market has been experiencing an unusually large volume of settlement fails in recent months. Source: FR2004 Bottomright panel (18) Title: Dollar Roll Sales Series: Sales of dollar rolls by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Horizon: June 1, 2009 January 11, 2010 Description: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to sell dollar rolls. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exhibit 4 Topleft panel (19) Title: Federal Reserve ShortTerm Liquidity Facilities Series: Size of shortterm liquidity facilities Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 21, 2010 Description: The volume of activity in the shortterm facilities continues to decline. TSLF, PDCF, AMLF, CPFF, FX Swaps, PCF, and TAF Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Topright panel (20) Liquidity Facility Usage (Levels in $ Billions) Current Outstanding Peak Outstanding Peak Date TSLF 0 223 12/4/08 PDCF 0 156 9/29/08 AMLF 0 152 10/1/08 CPFF 3.9 351 1/23/09 FX Swaps 0.2 586 12/4/08 PCF 14.9 114 10/28/08 TAF 38.5 493 3/11/09 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Middleleft panel (21) Title: Money Market Rates Series: Spread between 3month financial CP and the overnight index swap and the spread between 3month LIBOR and the overnight index swap Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 19, 2010 Description: Shortterm funding spreads remain quite tight. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Middleright panel (22) Title: Balance Sheet Assets by Category Series: Federal Reserve balance sheet assets categorized by All Other, Lending to Systematically Important Institutions, ShortTerm Liquidity Facilities, and Outright Asset Holdings Horizon: August 1, 2008 January 21, 2010 Description: The dominant component of the balance sheet has become the outright holdings of SOMA assets as the volume of activity in the shortterm facilities continues to decline. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Bottomleft panel (23) Expected Use of Exit Tools Relative to First Target Rate Increase (% of Respondents) Before Concurrent After Never RRP 73 23 4 0 TDF 70 23 5 2 IOER 15 75 10 0 Tsy Sales 6 0 60 34 Agy Sales 6 0 60 34 MBS Sales 4 2 60 34 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Bottomright panel (24) Title: Expected Timing of Exit Tools Series: Survey respondents' predictions of timing of expected use of exit tools relative to timing of the first target rate increase. Horizon: N/A Description: Primary dealers expect reverse repurchase agreements and the term deposit facility to be used prior to the first target rate increase, interest on excess reserves to be used concurrent to the first target rate increase, and asset sales to follow the first target rate increase. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Exhibit 5 Topleft panel (25) Title: Cumulative Size of Exit Programs Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the cumulative size of the various exit programs Horizon: Q2 2010 Q2 2012 Description: Survey respondents expect reverse repurchase agreements and term deposits to be ramped up to about $250 billion between the second quarter of this year and the second quarter of next year and for asset sales to occur more slowly. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Topright panel (26) Title: Estimated Maximum Usage Over 6 week Period Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the amount of liquidity which could be drained if necessary over a 6 week period without causing significant market disruption Horizon: N/A Description: Survey respondents expect $200 billion could be drained by reverse repos and another $200 billion could be drained by the term deposit facility over a 6 week period. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Middleleft panel (27) Title: Probability of Reinvestment of Maturing Securities Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the redemption policy to be taken with SOMA assets. Horizon: N/A Description: The majority of respondents expect the Fed either not to reinvest or only partially to reinvest its holdings of agency debt and MBS. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Middleright panel (28) Title: Expected Level of Reserves at First Tightening Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the level of reserves at the time of the first target rate hike. Horizon: N/A Description: There is a wide range of expectations for the level of reserves at the first tightening, with most expectations concentrated within the $400 billion to $1 trillion range. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Middleleft panel (29) Title: Expected Impact of Reverse Repos and Term Deposit Facility Series: Survey respondents' predictions of the impact of reverse repos and the term deposit facility. Horizon: N/A Description: Survey respondents expect reverse repos and the term deposit facility to improve the FOMC's control of shortterm interest rates and to contain inflation expectations. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Middleright panel (30) Spread between Implied IOER and Federal Funds Effective Rate (in BPS)* IOER Rate Level of Excess Reserves $1 Trillion $500 Billion $0 $25 Billion 25 BPS 10 57 0 100 BPS 1529 1020 0 200 BPS 2050 1025 0 * Includes 25th to 75th percentile of responses Return to text Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Exit Survey Appendix 2: Materials used by Messrs. Clouse and Hilton Material for Briefing on Strategies for the Removal of Policy Accommodation Jim Clouse Spence Hilton January 26, 2010 Class I FOMC Restricted Controlled (FR) Update on ReserveDraining Tools Capability to conduct RRP with MBS anticipated in late March. Capability to conduct RRP with expanded counterparties anticipated in late spring. TDF Public comments due February 1 Board could issue final rule in March Facility could be fully operational in May Capability to conduct term RRP with foreign accounts may be available in July. Reserve Collateral Accounts (RCAs) Steering group being assembled to develop work plans. Hypothetical Use of Draining Tools Reserve Balances With Alternative Assumptions About Reserve Draining Tools ($ Billions) Assumed Paths for Tools RRP + TDF + Foreign RRP RRP TDF Foreign RRP No Tools RRP RRP + TDF March 1269 1249 1249 1249 20 0 0 April 1172 1112 1112 1112 60 0 0 May 1252 1132 1057 1057 120 75 0 June 1205 1020 870 870 185 150 0 July 1194 949 724 674 245 225 50 August 1179 874 574 474 305 300 100 September 1163 758 408 308 405 350 100 October 1149 644 294 194 505 350 100 November 1135 630 280 180 505 350 100 December 1122 617 267 167 505 350 100 See "Projections of System Capacity to Absorb Reserve Balances," by Chris Burke, Seth Carpenter, and Jane Ihrig Funds Rate and Reserve Demand Top panel What quantity of reserves must be drained to align funds rate and IOER? How will funds rate respond to increase in IOER? Bottomleft panel Figure 3. Effective federal funds rate versus excess balances A chart displays a scatterplot of the level of the effective federal funds rate (basis points) and the level of excess reserves (billions of dollars) over the period from December 4, 2008 to December 16, 2009. The scatterplot shows a noticeable downward slope, suggestive of a downward sloping demand for reserves. The historical relationship in this chart suggests that the level of reserve balances might need to be returned to a level of about $500 billion to push the federal funds rate close to the level of the interest rate on excess reserves. See "Reserves and the Federal Funds Rate," by Gara Afonso, Chris Burke, Seth Carpenter, Jane Ihrig, Dennis Kuo, James McAndrews, John McGowan, Asani Sarkar, Jeffrey Shrader, David Skeie, and Victor Stebunovs. Bottomright panel Spread of IOER Rate Over Funds Rate with Alternative Assumptions Regarding the Level of IOER and Excess Balances (Basis Points) IOER (Percent) Level of Excess Reserves ($ Billions) 1000 500 25 0.25 10 6 1 1.00 30 17 3 2.00 44 26 3 See "Exit Strategy Survey: Themes and Messages," by Mike McMorrow, Ellen Correia, and Mike Lementowski A table reports the results from a question posed on a recent survey of primary dealers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The question asked dealers how the gap between the interest rate on excess reserves and the federal funds rate would depend on the level of the interest rate on excess reserves and the level of excess reserves. In general, at low levels of reserves on the order of $25 billion, dealers anticipated that the federal funds rate would be very close to the interest rate on excess reserves. At levels of excess reserves around $500 billion, dealers anticipated that federal funds would trade a little below the interest rate on excess reserves. At this level of excess reserves, dealers anticipated that the gap between the interest rate on excess reserves and the federal funds rate could widen about 20 basis points as the interest rate on excess reserves is increased from 25 basis points to 200 basis points. At levels of excess reserves around $1000 billion, dealers expected that the federal funds would generally trade below the interest rate on excess reserves. At this level of excess reserves, dealers anticipated that the gap between the interest rate on excess reserves and the federal funds rate could widen about 35 basis points as the interest rate on excess reserves is increased from 25 basis points to 200 basis points. Alternative Target Rates Left panel In some scenarios, linkage of federal funds rate to other shortterm rates could be loosened. But apparently not so far. Alternative market rates include… Libor, eurodollar, repo rates Institutional factors could affect choice Response of rates to shocks could differ IOER rate could be used as primary policy instrument Monitor a collection of money market rates (similar to BoE). Still questions about connection between IOER and market rates Governance issues in determination of IOER rate Right panel Selected ShortTerm Interest Rates, June 1, 2008 to present A line chart shows that, to date, the federal funds rate has remained close to other shortterm market rates. However, if the federal funds rate became less reliable as a guide for policy, the Committee might consider alternative shortterm market interest rates such as LIBOR, Eurodollar rates or repo rates for this purpose. Choosing a rate to replace the federal funds rate as a guide for monetary policy would require analysis of a number of issues including institutional factors affecting individual rates and differences in the way that alternative rates respond to changes in the economic outlook and financial conditions. The Committee could also consider using the interest rate on excess reserves as a policy rate. This approach could be subject to pitfalls, however, if the connection between the interest rate on excess reserves and market rates is quite loose. See "Alternative Interest Rate Operating Targets," by Tobias Adrian, Haley Boesky, David Bowman, Chris Burke, Seth Carpenter, Margaret DeBoer, Michiel DePooter, Spence Hilton, Jane Ihrig, Mike Leahy, James McAndrews, Steve Meyer, Edward Nelson, Michael Palumbo, Roberto Perli, and Matthew Raskin. Foreign Experience with Interest on Reserves Most policy rate floors are effective But somewhat less so in United Kingdom Foreign experience (like U.S. experience) indicates that effectiveness of floor depends on scope of access to central bank accounts Central banks with "floor systems" have been able to tighten policy by raising IOER or deposit rate even with substantial excess reserves. Norges Bank has tightened policy with high reserves. Caveat Experience in other countries may be an imperfect guide to likely outcomes in the United States. See "Interest on Excess Reserves as a Monetary Policy Instrument: The Experience of Foreign Central Banks," by David Bowman, Etienne Gagnon, and Mike Leahy. LongRun Balance Sheet Management Issues Longrun policy implementation framework Move away from mandatory reserve requirements? Adopt corridor or floor system? Longrun size of the balance sheet Could be used actively to pursue macro objectives Longrun composition of the balance sheet Return to Treasuries only? Shorten average maturity to increase liquidity? See "Balance Sheet Management Issues in the Longer Term," by Jim Clouse, Spence Hilton, and Steve Meyer. Asset Sales Strategies Top panel Domestic SOMA Assets and Reserves (billions of dollars) [Note: In the table data, strong emphasis (bold) indicates red text in the original document.] SOMA Assets Levels Potential for Cumulative Redemptions, from 2010Q2 2007Q2 2010Q2 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 Agency MBS 0 1,135 45 120 185 245 300 365 Agency Debt 0 170 20 60 85 105 125 130 791 775 85 155 290 345 415 440 17 1,260 Treasury Debt Memo: Reserves Middleleft panel Motivations for SOMA Asset Sales and Redemptions Reduce Excess Reserves Unwind Portfolio Balance Effects on Longer Term Rates Rebalance the SOMA Portfolio Middleright panel Risks of Aggressive Asset Sales Uncertainty about Rate Effects of Asset Sales Announcement Effect Could Cause an Immediate, Sharp Rise in LongTerm Interest Rates Possible Impact on Market Liquidity and Function Potential for Sizable Capital Losses Bottom panel Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Assets under Alternative SOMA Reduction Strategies (from "Strategies for Asset Sales and Redemptions," Keane, Lucca, Remache, and Sack) 2010:Q2 2010:Q4 2011:Q4 2012:Q4 2013:Q4 2014:Q4 2015:Q4 Rapid Asset Sales 1 2,346 1,666 1,040 1,096 1,153 1,215 1,266 Redemptions Only 2 2,346 2,256 2,111 1,969 1,877 1,775 1,703 Steady and Gradual Reduction 3 2,346 2,097 1,850 1,581 1,351 1,215 1,266 Statedependent Reduction 4 Alternative Sequencing Strategies Left panel Alternative Sequencing Strategies (from "Strategies for Sequencing the Use of Reserve Draining Tools and Changes in Policy Rates," Clouse and Hilton) Strategy ExPost Contingent Reserve Drain Potential Benefits Allows a clear test of whether draining tools are necessary, and could avoid their use altogether. Relatively simple Risks/Other Issues Risks some period in which funds rate could be well below the IOER rate. communications strategy. Reduces risk that funds rate will be volatile or trade below IOER rate when policy is first tightened. Early Reserve Drain Early reduction in reserve balances could help to contain inflation expectations, either by demonstrating the Fed has welldeveloped exit capabilities or operating through a reserve channel. Relatively simple communications strategy. Concurrent Reserve Drain Potential communication challenges in avoiding impression that increases in IOER and FFT rates may be imminent. Necessarily entails use of temporary reserve draining tools, with a need for clear operating objectives in the pretightening interval. Necessarily entails use of temporary reserve draining tools. May not reduce the risk that the funds rate could trade well below the IOER rate for some period if IOER is not effective and reserve draining tools cannot be ramped up quickly without complications. Right panel Criteria for Choosing Among Sequencing Strategies Degree of confidence about using IOER rate by itself to control shortterm rates. Possibility of other benefits from draining reserves. Expected time frame for draining significant reserves without complications. Communications challenges with early reserve drain strategy. Costs and risks of draining operations which could prove unnecessary. Possible Questions for Committee Discussion of Strategies for Removing Policy Accommodation Over the next year, how should asset sales be used as part of the exit strategy? Relatively rapid sales (say, over $200 billion) Very gradual sales over the next year ($0 to $200 billion) Redemptions only State contingent sales (and/or purchases) How should redemptions of existing SOMA holdings proceed over the next year? Redeem all agency and MBS and no Treasuries Redeem all agency and MBS and some Treasuries Redeem all agency and MBS and all Treasuries Redeem some agency and MBS and no Treasuries Redeem nothing How should the use of reverse repos (RRPs) and term deposits (TDs) be sequenced relative to an increase in the IOER rate? Use RRPs and TDs only if necessary after an increase in the IOER rate (expost contingent strategy) Use RRPs and TDs before an increase in the IOER rate (exante strategy) Use RRPs and TDs concurrent with increase in IOER rate In order to ensure that increases in the IOER rate provide a sufficient tightening of money market conditions, what volume of reserves (if any) should be drained in advance of the first IOER increase? What structure for the Federal Reserve balance sheet would you favor in the long run? All Treasuries, spread across all maturities (as in previous practice) All Treasuries, but concentrated in bills and shortterm coupons Treasuries, agencies, and MBS Other: [blank space] How concerned are you that the characteristics of the federal funds rate as an operating target will deteriorate significantly? Do you see strong advantages in retaining a market interest rate as an operating target? Do you see other interest rates as particularly suitable replacements for the funds rate as an operating target? Will the Committee need to determine its longerrun operating framework far in advance in order to implement an effective exit strategy from the current period of extraordinary policy accommodation? Appendix 3: Materials used by Messrs. Sichel, Palumbo, and Sheets Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook January 26, 2010 Class II FOMC Restricted (FR) Exhibit 1 Nearterm Outlook Topleft panel Real GDP Percent change, annual rate GDP Dec GB 2009:Q3 2.24 2.46 2009:Q4 5.29 3.83 2010:Q1 2.76 3.61 Topright panel Contributions to Real GDP Growth (Percentage points, annual rate) 2009 2010 Q4 Q1 1. Final sales 1.6 2.5 2. Dec. GB 1.5 2.6 3. Inventories 3.7 0.3 4. 2.3 1.0 Dec. GB Middleleft panel Real Inventory Investment Billions of chained (2005) dollars Period Jan. GB Dec. GB 2006:Q1 65.81 65.81 2006:Q2 72.54 72.54 2006:Q3 67.51 67.51 2006:Q4 31.83 31.83 2007:Q1 14.46 14.46 2007:Q2 23.30 23.30 2007:Q3 29.80 29.80 2007:Q4 10.32 10.32 2008:Q1 0.62 0.62 2008:Q2 37.09 37.09 2008:Q3 29.71 29.71 2008:Q4 37.38 37.38 2009:Q1 113.89 113.89 2009:Q2 160.22 160.22 2009:Q3 139.17 136.66 2009:Q4 24.10 66.50 2010:Q1 15.62 33.76 2010:Q2 1.78 15.15 2010:Q3 22.36 6.90 2010:Q4 32.02 23.57 Forecast Middleright panel Inventory Adjustments Slowdown in pace of liquidation sooner than expected. Firms have pulled forward production adjustments. Bottomleft panel Real PCE Goods Billions of chained (2005) dollars Period Real PCE Goods January 2006 3149.88 February 2006 3143.08 March 2006 3144.12 April 2006 3158.07 May 2006 3142.07 June 2006 3152.28 July 2006 3180.22 August 2006 3158.76 September 2006 3190.23 October 2006 3210.08 November 2006 3209.05 December 2006 3248.50 January 2007 3254.44 February 2007 3243.70 March 2007 3263.48 April 2007 3248.21 May 2007 3266.66 June 2007 3251.38 July 2007 3265.85 August 2007 3275.27 September 2007 3300.70 October 2007 3304.04 November 2007 3311.46 December 2007 3299.03 January 2008 3272.83 February 2008 3244.67 March 2008 3268.69 April 2008 3263.41 May 2008 3261.39 June 2008 3248.69 July 2008 3201.11 August 2008 3219.96 September 2008 3159.87 October 2008 3126.23 November 2008 3131.30 December 2008 3073.55 January 2009 3128.82 February 2009 3141.29 March 2009 3119.17 April 2009 3094.93 May 2009 3105.96 June 2009 3114.74 July 2009 3130.33 August 2009 3213.40 September 2009 3135.38 October 2009 3160.21 November 2009 3192.56 Staff estimates December 2009 3198.82 January 2010 3199.95 February 2010 3216.85 March 2010 3231.75 Quarterly averages Billions of chained (2005) dollars Period Real PCE Goods 2006:Q1 3145.69 2006:Q2 3150.81 2006:Q3 3176.40 2006:Q4 3222.54 2007:Q1 3253.87 2007:Q2 3255.42 2007:Q3 3280.61 2007:Q4 3304.85 2008:Q1 3262.06 2008:Q2 3257.83 2008:Q3 3193.64 2008:Q4 3110.36 2009:Q1 3129.76 2009:Q2 3105.21 2009:Q3 3159.70 Staff estimates 2009:Q4 3183.86 2010:Q1 3216.18 Bottomright panel Orders and Shipments* Billions of dollars Period Orders Shipments January 2006 62.76 60.39 February 2006 63.06 60.93 March 2006 65.65 62.35 April 2006 63.34 62.14 May 2006 64.54 62.75 June 2006 64.86 62.55 July 2006 64.17 62.11 August 2006 64.48 63.25 September 2006 67.41 62.44 October 2006 65.30 61.48 November 2006 65.64 62.46 December 2006 65.51 62.83 January 2007 61.79 59.20 February 2007 61.10 60.43 March 2007 63.53 61.42 April 2007 64.45 61.59 May 2007 63.20 61.94 June 2007 62.54 61.87 July 2007 62.07 60.21 August 2007 63.43 62.53 September 2007 62.91 62.97 October 2007 62.52 62.02 November 2007 62.33 61.94 December 2007 65.89 63.74 January 2008 64.99 62.66 February 2008 64.08 61.70 March 2008 63.84 63.22 April 2008 65.47 63.11 May 2008 65.28 63.58 June 2008 65.33 63.65 July 2008 65.12 63.13 August 2008 64.17 62.42 September 2008 61.64 63.51 October 2008 57.90 60.58 November 2008 58.68 59.75 December 2008 55.34 60.24 January 2009 48.55 54.00 February 2009 49.73 53.82 March 2009 49.77 53.27 April 2009 48.30 52.16 May 2009 50.15 51.91 June 2009 52.21 52.78 July 2009 51.80 53.10 August 2009 51.05 52.17 September 2009 52.87 52.44 October 2009 51.92 52.69 November 2009 53.30 53.27 December 2009 ND 53.34 January 2010 ND 52.89 February 2010 ND 53.59 March 2010 ND 54.03 Staff estimate * Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Return to text Exhibit 2 Mediumterm Outlook Topleft panel Real GDP Percent change, annual rate Period Real GDP December GB 2009:H1 3.63 3.63 2009:H2 3.75 3.14 2010 3.61 3.63 2011 4.73 4.51 Topright panel Factors Contributing to Recovery Accommodative monetary policy. Financial conditions more supportive of growth. Reduced drag from past declines in wealth. Improvement in confidence. Middleleft panel Real Final Sales: Looking Back to June 2009 Percent change, annual rate Period Final Sales June GB 2009:H1 1.75 1.61 2009:H2 1.50 0.62 2010 3.16 2.60 Middleright panel Changes in the Outlook since June Positives Financial conditions Fiscal stimulus Foreign growth and dollar Negatives Labor markets Bottomleft panel Financials: 2010:Q1 Value versus June Greenbook 1. Stock market +17 percent 2. BBB bond yield 140 basis points 3. House prices 4. Mortgage rates +8 percent 20 basis points Bottomright panel Total Hours* Index, 2006:Q1 = 100 Period January GB June GB 2006:Q1 100.00 ND 2006:Q2 100.10 ND 2006:Q3 100.56 ND 2006:Q4 101.01 ND 2007:Q1 100.94 ND 2007:Q2 101.16 ND 2007:Q3 100.78 ND 2007:Q4 100.73 ND 2008:Q1 100.31 ND 2008:Q2 99.88 ND 2008:Q3 98.88 ND 2008:Q4 96.75 ND 2009:Q1 94.49 94.54 2009:Q2 92.67 93.13 2009:Q3 91.58 92.91 2009:Q4 91.73 93.03 2010:Q1 92.25 93.30 2010:Q2 93.00 93.75 2010:Q3 93.94 94.27 2010:Q4 94.99 94.86 Forecast * Nonfarm business sector. Return to text Exhibit 3 Household Finance and Consumer Spending Topleft panel Personal Saving Rate Period Percent of disposable income 1999:Q1 4.30 1999:Q2 3.00 1999:Q3 2.40 1999:Q4 2.60 2000:Q1 3.10 2000:Q2 3.10 2000:Q3 3.10 2000:Q4 2.40 2001:Q1 2.80 2001:Q2 2.10 2001:Q3 4.20 2001:Q4 1.60 2002:Q1 4.00 2002:Q2 4.00 2002:Q3 3.10 2002:Q4 3.10 2003:Q1 3.10 2003:Q2 3.50 2003:Q3 3.60 2003:Q4 3.60 2004:Q1 3.20 2004:Q2 3.60 2004:Q3 3.30 2004:Q4 3.60 2005:Q1 1.60 2005:Q2 1.30 2005:Q3 1.20 2005:Q4 1.50 2006:Q1 2.20 2006:Q2 2.50 2006:Q3 2.30 2006:Q4 2.50 2007:Q1 2.00 2007:Q2 1.80 2007:Q3 1.60 2007:Q4 1.50 2008:Q1 1.20 2008:Q2 3.40 2008:Q3 2.20 2008:Q4 3.80 2009:Q1 3.70 2009:Q2 5.40 2009:Q3 4.50 Forecast 2009:Q4 4.27 2010:Q1 4.32 2010:Q2 3.75 2010:Q3 3.85 2010:Q4 3.99 2011:Q1 3.75 2011:Q2 3.77 2011:Q3 3.89 2011:Q4 3.99 Topright panel Household Debt Period Percent change, annual rate 1999:Q1 9.12 1999:Q2 7.94 1999:Q3 8.90 1999:Q4 6.49 2000:Q1 8.22 2000:Q2 9.46 2000:Q3 8.59 2000:Q4 8.90 2001:Q1 9.11 2001:Q2 10.32 2001:Q3 8.96 2001:Q4 8.77 2002:Q1 10.30 2002:Q2 9.89 2002:Q3 9.48 2002:Q4 11.78 2003:Q1 10.82 2003:Q2 13.01 2003:Q3 11.26 2003:Q4 9.91 2004:Q1 10.01 2004:Q2 11.37 2004:Q3 9.31 2004:Q4 11.90 2005:Q1 9.17 2005:Q2 11.12 2005:Q3 11.24 2005:Q4 11.02 2006:Q1 11.35 2006:Q2 11.15 2006:Q3 8.55 2006:Q4 7.59 2007:Q1 6.95 2007:Q2 7.19 2007:Q3 5.87 2007:Q4 5.92 2008:Q1 3.09 2008:Q2 0.11 2008:Q3 0.54 2008:Q4 1.90 2009:Q1 1.22 2009:Q2 1.63 2009:Q3 2.66 Forecast 2009:Q4 2.15 2010:Q1 0.62 2010:Q2 0.04 2010:Q3 0.51 2010:Q4 1.01 2011:Q1 1.51 2011:Q2 1.87 2011:Q3 2.21 2011:Q4 2.52 Middleleft panel Household Debt Service Period Percent of disposable income 1980:Q1 11.21 1980:Q2 11.19 1980:Q3 10.91 1980:Q4 10.61 1981:Q1 10.65 1981:Q2 10.78 1981:Q3 10.65 1981:Q4 10.70 1982:Q1 10.76 1982:Q2 10.80 1982:Q3 10.70 1982:Q4 10.64 1983:Q1 10.60 1983:Q2 10.61 1983:Q3 10.61 1983:Q4 10.67 1984:Q1 10.70 1984:Q2 10.84 1984:Q3 10.94 1984:Q4 11.07 1985:Q1 11.41 1985:Q2 11.50 1985:Q3 11.86 1985:Q4 11.97 1986:Q1 11.99 1986:Q2 12.08 1986:Q3 12.22 1986:Q4 12.38 1987:Q1 12.22 1987:Q2 12.38 1987:Q3 12.25 1987:Q4 12.08 1988:Q1 12.03 1988:Q2 12.01 1988:Q3 11.98 1988:Q4 11.85 1989:Q1 11.83 1989:Q2 12.02 1989:Q3 12.11 1989:Q4 12.12 1990:Q1 12.05 1990:Q2 12.02 1990:Q3 12.02 1990:Q4 12.03 1991:Q1 11.99 1991:Q2 11.83 1991:Q3 11.73 1991:Q4 11.53 1992:Q1 11.30 1992:Q2 11.14 1992:Q3 10.99 1992:Q4 10.81 1993:Q1 10.99 1993:Q2 10.80 1993:Q3 10.85 1993:Q4 10.73 1994:Q1 10.86 1994:Q2 10.86 1994:Q3 10.96 1994:Q4 11.06 1995:Q1 11.25 1995:Q2 11.47 1995:Q3 11.59 1995:Q4 11.67 1996:Q1 11.69 1996:Q2 11.73 1996:Q3 11.80 1996:Q4 11.87 1997:Q1 11.83 1997:Q2 11.86 1997:Q3 11.89 1997:Q4 11.85 1998:Q1 11.73 1998:Q2 11.76 1998:Q3 11.76 1998:Q4 11.81 1999:Q1 11.88 1999:Q2 12.03 1999:Q3 12.16 1999:Q4 12.13 2000:Q1 12.04 2000:Q2 12.20 2000:Q3 12.36 2000:Q4 12.59 2001:Q1 12.66 2001:Q2 12.86 2001:Q3 12.73 2001:Q4 13.10 2002:Q1 12.95 2002:Q2 13.01 2002:Q3 13.17 2002:Q4 13.24 2003:Q1 13.26 2003:Q2 13.21 2003:Q3 13.14 2003:Q4 13.19 2004:Q1 13.22 2004:Q2 13.19 2004:Q3 13.34 2004:Q4 13.29 2005:Q1 13.65 2005:Q2 13.76 2005:Q3 13.65 2005:Q4 13.75 2006:Q1 13.70 2006:Q2 13.76 2006:Q3 13.84 2006:Q4 13.85 2007:Q1 13.83 2007:Q2 13.86 2007:Q3 13.91 2007:Q4 13.88 2008:Q1 13.91 2008:Q2 13.47 2008:Q3 13.61 2008:Q4 13.57 2009:Q1 13.47 2009:Q2 13.05 2009:Q3 12.85 2009:Q4 12.62 Forecast 2010:Q1 12.39 2010:Q2 12.32 2010:Q3 12.18 2010:Q4 12.07 2011:Q1 12.02 2011:Q2 11.96 2011:Q3 11.90 2011:Q4 11.87 Middleright panel Household Net Worth Period Ratio to disposable income 1988:Q1 4.81 1988:Q2 4.84 1988:Q3 4.81 1988:Q4 4.82 1989:Q1 4.82 1989:Q2 4.89 1989:Q3 4.97 1989:Q4 4.96 1990:Q1 4.86 1990:Q2 4.85 1990:Q3 4.70 1990:Q4 4.76 1991:Q1 4.87 1991:Q2 4.82 1991:Q3 4.83 1991:Q4 4.89 1992:Q1 4.78 1992:Q2 4.73 1992:Q3 4.73 1992:Q4 4.76 1993:Q1 4.87 1993:Q2 4.81 1993:Q3 4.87 1993:Q4 4.86 1994:Q1 4.85 1994:Q2 4.78 1994:Q3 4.79 1994:Q4 4.74 1995:Q1 4.79 1995:Q2 4.89 1995:Q3 4.98 1995:Q4 5.05 1996:Q1 5.08 1996:Q2 5.10 1996:Q3 5.10 1996:Q4 5.11 1997:Q1 5.08 1997:Q2 5.32 1997:Q3 5.44 1997:Q4 5.41 1998:Q1 5.58 1998:Q2 5.60 1998:Q3 5.34 1998:Q4 5.69 1999:Q1 5.74 1999:Q2 5.92 1999:Q3 5.79 1999:Q4 6.16 2000:Q1 6.17 2000:Q2 6.02 2000:Q3 5.97 2000:Q4 5.73 2001:Q1 5.47 2001:Q2 5.64 2001:Q3 5.26 2001:Q4 5.53 2002:Q1 5.44 2002:Q2 5.21 2002:Q3 5.00 2002:Q4 5.11 2003:Q1 5.07 2003:Q2 5.25 2003:Q3 5.28 2003:Q4 5.50 2004:Q1 5.60 2004:Q2 5.62 2004:Q3 5.61 2004:Q4 5.79 2005:Q1 5.96 2005:Q2 6.07 2005:Q3 6.20 2005:Q4 6.28 2006:Q1 6.39 2006:Q2 6.25 2006:Q3 6.25 2006:Q4 6.38 2007:Q1 6.34 2007:Q2 6.38 2007:Q3 6.32 2007:Q4 6.10 2008:Q1 5.80 2008:Q2 5.48 2008:Q3 5.26 2008:Q4 4.77 2009:Q1 4.51 2009:Q2 4.64 2009:Q3 4.88 2009:Q4 4.88 Forecast 2010:Q1 4.89 2010:Q2 4.92 2010:Q3 4.93 2010:Q4 4.93 2011:Q1 4.97 2011:Q2 4.98 2011:Q3 5.00 2011:Q4 5.03 Average from 1960 to 2009 is about 4.94. Bottomleft panel Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions of dollars Period History and January GB forecast Simulation based on wealth, income, and interest rates 2006:Q1 8986.63 8986.63 2006:Q2 9035.05 9035.05 2006:Q3 9090.71 9090.71 2006:Q4 9181.62 9181.62 2007:Q1 9265.14 9265.14 2007:Q2 9291.50 9335.56 2007:Q3 9335.58 9400.90 2007:Q4 9363.56 9462.01 2008:Q1 9349.57 9507.43 2008:Q2 9350.97 9537.85 2008:Q3 9267.71 9560.74 2008:Q4 9195.29 9570.30 2009:Q1 9209.21 9566.47 2009:Q2 9189.04 9560.73 2009:Q3 9252.59 9556.91 2009:Q4 9300.82 9555.00 2010:Q1 9363.97 9573.15 2010:Q2 9427.66 9592.30 2010:Q3 9495.10 9621.08 2010:Q4 9562.05 9659.56 2011:Q1 9639.25 9709.79 2011:Q2 9725.44 9761.25 2011:Q3 9818.67 9814.94 2011:Q4 9916.09 9877.76 Forecast Bottomright panel Discussion Consumer spending dropped far below the simulation in 2008 and early 2009. Sharp tightening in credit and heightened anxiety about depth of recession and job loss played important roles in "shortfall." We expect spending to continue to accelerate this year and in 2011. Exhibit 4 Real Estate Markets and Construction Activity Topleft panel Existing Home Prices Index, 2006:Q1 = 100 Period LP national index 2003:Q1 67.6 2003:Q2 68.9 2003:Q3 70.9 2003:Q4 72.8 2004:Q1 76.1 2004:Q2 79.3 2004:Q3 81.9 2004:Q4 84.9 2005:Q1 89.6 2005:Q2 92.7 2005:Q3 95.7 2005:Q4 98.1 2006:Q1 100.0 2006:Q2 99.6 2006:Q3 99.2 2006:Q4 99.9 2007:Q1 97.6 2007:Q2 95.8 2007:Q3 92.8 2007:Q4 89.8 2008:Q1 85.3 2008:Q2 81.4 2008:Q3 77.3 2008:Q4 72.2 2009:Q1 66.5 2009:Q2 68.7 2009:Q3 70.0 Forecast 2009:Q4 68.8 2010:Q1 67.8 2010:Q2 67.3 2010:Q3 67.1 2010:Q4 67.1 2011:Q1 67.1 2011:Q2 67.2 2011:Q3 67.4 2011:Q4 67.5 [Inset:] Percent change, a.r. Percent change, a.r. 2009:H1: 9.5 Q3: 7.5 Q4p: 6.7 Topright panel Foreclosure Starts and Vacant Homes Period Foreclosure starts Homeowner vacancy rate (Thousands of units) (Percent) 2003:Q1 194.79 1.71 2003:Q2 171.13 1.75 2003:Q3 202.69 1.89 2003:Q4 241.61 1.76 2004:Q1 239.46 1.70 2004:Q2 210.39 1.75 2004:Q3 220.65 1.69 2004:Q4 244.28 1.76 2005:Q1 222.98 1.79 2005:Q2 206.94 1.86 2005:Q3 221.61 1.90 2005:Q4 226.71 1.96 2006:Q1 231.91 2.08 2006:Q2 216.56 2.27 2006:Q3 243.36 2.50 2006:Q4 311.10 2.64 2007:Q1 320.72 2.76 2007:Q2 321.66 2.69 2007:Q3 423.59 2.71 2007:Q4 475.64 2.74 2008:Q1 532.82 2.85 2008:Q2 572.54 2.90 2008:Q3 568.26 2.81 2008:Q4 573.97 2.84 2009:Q1 717.06 2.65 2009:Q2 711.30 2.59 2009:Q3 748.99 2.61 2009:Q4 770.70 ND 2010:Q1 689.90 ND 2010:Q2 676.50 ND 2010:Q3 668.50 ND 2010:Q4 659.40 ND 2011:Q1 648.80 ND 2011:Q2 635.10 ND 2011:Q3 625.10 ND 2011:Q4 610.80 ND Forecast Middleleft panel Housing Demand Existing home sales rose noticeably over the second half of last year. Demand lifted by low mortgage rates and low home prices. A growing sense that prices may have bottomed out and a gradual increase in employment should contribute to rising demand. Middleright panel Singlefamily Construction Millions of units Period New home sales Housing starts for sale Liquidation (approximate) [new home sales minus housing starts for sale] 2006:Q1 1.12 1.28 ND 2006:Q2 1.09 1.15 ND 2006:Q3 1.01 0.98 ND 2006:Q4 0.98 0.89 ND 2007:Q1 0.85 0.89 ND 2007:Q2 0.84 0.83 0.01 2007:Q3 0.72 0.66 0.06 2007:Q4 0.66 0.54 0.12 2008:Q1 0.56 0.46 0.10 2008:Q2 0.51 0.37 0.14 2008:Q3 0.46 0.30 0.16 2008:Q4 0.39 0.21 0.18 2009:Q1 0.34 0.19 0.15 2009:Q2 0.37 0.24 0.13 2009:Q3 0.41 0.29 0.12 2009:Q4 0.37 0.27 0.10 2010:Q1 0.47 0.33 0.14 2010:Q2 0.45 0.35 0.10 2010:Q3 0.46 0.42 0.04 2010:Q4 0.48 0.51 ND 2011:Q1 0.51 0.57 ND 2011:Q2 0.57 0.63 ND 2011:Q3 0.63 0.70 ND 2011:Q4 0.69 0.77 ND Forecast [Inset:] New home inventory (thousands) May 2007: 545 Nov. 2009: 235 Bottomleft panel Commercial Property* Period Prices Vacancy rates (Index, 2006:Q1 = 100) (Percent) 2000:Q1 61.93 7.93 2000:Q2 63.55 7.40 2000:Q3 64.66 7.37 2000:Q4 65.41 7.47 2001:Q1 65.26 8.03 2001:Q2 64.83 8.97 2001:Q3 64.37 9.83 2001:Q4 63.45 10.77 2002:Q1 64.29 11.43 2002:Q2 64.39 11.70 2002:Q3 65.01 11.90 2002:Q4 65.65 12.07 2003:Q1 67.08 12.27 2003:Q2 67.72 12.40 2003:Q3 68.31 12.37 2003:Q4 69.27 12.33 2004:Q1 70.36 12.20 2004:Q2 71.50 11.97 2004:Q3 73.00 11.73 2004:Q4 75.15 11.43 2005:Q1 74.84 11.23 2005:Q2 88.72 10.90 2005:Q3 92.27 10.60 2005:Q4 95.26 10.30 2006:Q1 100.00 10.27 2006:Q2 101.57 10.17 2006:Q3 104.22 10.00 2006:Q4 109.85 9.93 2007:Q1 112.43 10.07 2007:Q2 117.35 10.13 2007:Q3 116.18 10.13 2007:Q4 113.22 10.30 2008:Q1 110.31 10.60 2008:Q2 104.24 11.00 2008:Q3 103.01 11.40 2008:Q4 96.24 11.97 2009:Q1 87.98 12.80 2009:Q2 80.10 13.47 2009:Q3 76.79 13.93 2009:Q4 74.07 14.23 2010:Q1 72.21 ND 2010:Q2 71.49 ND 2010:Q3 70.96 ND 2010:Q4 70.60 ND 2011:Q1 70.43 ND 2011:Q2 70.50 ND 2011:Q3 70.67 ND Forecast 2011:Q4 71.31 ND * Average of series for office, industrial, and retail properties. Return to text Bottomright panel Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Respondents expecting performance of commercial mortgages to deteriorate further this year. Banks have continued to tighten CRE lending standards. Banks reported a further weakening in demand for CRE loans. Exhibit 5 Business Finance and Investment Topleft panel National Federation of Independent Business Percent Period Credit more difficult than three months ago Planning capital expenditures in next six months January 2000 3.88 36.67 February 2000 3.84 37.55 March 2000 3.58 36.60 April 2000 3.88 35.40 May 2000 4.37 33.63 June 2000 5.52 32.55 July 2000 5.53 33.73 August 2000 5.50 33.60 September 2000 4.92 35.02 October 2000 4.79 34.18 November 2000 5.66 34.24 December 2000 5.30 32.76 January 2001 5.45 31.68 February 2001 4.76 32.89 March 2001 4.17 32.68 April 2001 3.53 33.07 May 2001 3.06 31.30 June 2001 3.00 31.62 July 2001 3.25 30.77 August 2001 3.21 30.59 September 2001 4.93 29.89 October 2001 4.83 29.42 November 2001 4.01 28.52 December 2001 2.20 28.06 January 2002 2.02 28.08 February 2002 2.65 28.93 March 2002 3.44 30.12 April 2002 4.53 31.14 May 2002 5.14 31.67 June 2002 4.84 31.30 July 2002 4.02 31.06 August 2002 3.56 29.55 September 2002 3.24 29.76 October 2002 3.14 29.99 November 2002 1.98 30.45 December 2002 2.74 29.44 January 2003 2.92 29.16 February 2003 4.61 28.66 March 2003 4.43 27.57 April 2003 3.92 27.23 May 2003 3.19 27.42 June 2003 3.32 29.01 July 2003 3.45 28.67 August 2003 3.56 30.77 September 2003 3.20 29.82 October 2003 3.40 30.09 November 2003 3.96 27.99 December 2003 3.64 30.87 January 2004 3.16 32.36 February 2004 2.58 32.56 March 2004 2.43 31.81 April 2004 2.63 31.75 May 2004 2.58 32.79 June 2004 3.16 31.54 July 2004 3.60 31.80 August 2004 3.91 31.56 September 2004 3.79 32.58 October 2004 3.59 32.91 November 2004 3.22 32.31 December 2004 3.53 33.37 January 2005 3.74 32.88 February 2005 3.94 33.78 March 2005 3.16 33.36 April 2005 3.74 32.57 May 2005 4.28 32.78 June 2005 4.61 32.76 July 2005 4.05 32.63 August 2005 3.92 32.71 September 2005 3.98 31.73 October 2005 4.11 31.43 November 2005 4.49 31.61 December 2005 4.18 31.45 January 2006 4.69 31.99 February 2006 4.64 32.29 March 2006 5.57 31.88 April 2006 5.17 32.08 May 2006 4.93 29.83 June 2006 5.00 29.34 July 2006 5.44 29.50 August 2006 6.30 30.19 September 2006 5.53 30.91 October 2006 5.67 30.67 November 2006 5.08 30.97 December 2006 5.87 28.82 January 2007 5.32 28.04 February 2007 5.37 27.69 March 2007 5.63 30.31 April 2007 5.92 29.86 May 2007 5.90 29.58 June 2007 5.68 28.73 July 2007 5.45 28.80 August 2007 5.68 28.73 September 2007 6.77 28.74 October 2007 7.28 28.53 November 2007 7.38 27.89 December 2007 6.58 27.48 January 2008 6.68 26.45 February 2008 6.40 26.13 March 2008 6.32 24.79 April 2008 7.28 24.99 May 2008 7.86 24.69 June 2008 8.34 25.74 July 2008 8.10 24.73 August 2008 8.72 24.56 September 2008 9.74 22.55 October 2008 9.93 21.73 November 2008 10.33 20.51 December 2008 10.60 18.55 January 2009 11.70 18.26 February 2009 12.76 17.26 March 2009 12.67 17.26 April 2009 13.28 17.04 May 2009 13.85 17.75 June 2009 14.99 18.70 July 2009 15.08 18.98 August 2009 14.40 18.09 September 2009 14.05 18.06 October 2009 13.92 17.61 November 2009 14.32 17.12 December 2009 14.62 16.63 Note: Threemonth moving average. Topright panel Corporate Bond Spreads Percentage points Period 10year BBB 10year high yield 7 January 2000 1.45 4.23 14 January 2000 1.48 4.15 21 January 2000 1.51 4.19 28 January 2000 1.50 4.30 4 February 2000 1.45 4.39 11 February 2000 1.50 4.35 18 February 2000 1.49 4.53 25 February 2000 1.45 4.69 3 March 2000 1.63 4.81 10 March 2000 1.57 4.81 17 March 2000 1.62 5.09 24 March 2000 1.60 5.18 31 March 2000 1.82 5.60 7 April 2000 1.82 5.74 14 April 2000 1.93 5.60 21 April 2000 1.93 5.53 28 April 2000 2.05 5.39 5 May 2000 2.04 5.20 12 May 2000 2.05 5.28 19 May 2000 2.10 5.36 26 May 2000 2.19 5.65 2 June 2000 2.19 5.75 9 June 2000 2.13 5.67 16 June 2000 2.08 5.71 23 June 2000 2.05 5.57 30 June 2000 2.04 5.74 7 July 2000 2.06 5.82 14 July 2000 2.05 5.72 21 July 2000 2.02 5.80 28 July 2000 2.02 5.84 4 August 2000 2.04 6.04 11 August 2000 2.03 5.99 18 August 2000 2.03 6.02 25 August 2000 2.04 6.03 1 September 2000 2.05 5.87 8 September 2000 2.03 5.71 15 September 2000 2.04 5.67 22 September 2000 2.02 5.91 29 September 2000 1.99 6.03 6 October 2000 2.04 6.16 13 October 2000 2.07 6.48 20 October 2000 2.11 6.81 27 October 2000 2.14 6.81 3 November 2000 2.09 6.80 10 November 2000 2.08 6.83 17 November 2000 2.14 7.10 24 November 2000 2.17 7.38 1 December 2000 2.24 7.94 8 December 2000 2.24 7.95 15 December 2000 2.22 7.32 22 December 2000 2.21 7.82 29 December 2000 2.20 7.71 5 January 2001 2.21 7.55 12 January 2001 2.21 6.84 19 January 2001 2.15 6.78 26 January 2001 2.12 6.57 2 February 2001 2.10 6.39 9 February 2001 2.08 6.30 16 February 2001 2.05 6.10 23 February 2001 2.12 6.26 2 March 2001 2.11 6.24 9 March 2001 2.12 6.15 16 March 2001 2.12 6.51 23 March 2001 2.15 6.80 30 March 2001 2.12 6.64 6 April 2001 2.14 7.07 13 April 2001 2.15 6.78 20 April 2001 2.13 6.65 27 April 2001 2.07 6.59 4 May 2001 1.97 6.33 11 May 2001 1.99 6.14 18 May 2001 1.92 6.27 25 May 2001 1.92 6.17 1 June 2001 1.90 6.09 8 June 2001 1.87 6.19 15 June 2001 1.89 6.32 22 June 2001 1.94 6.60 29 June 2001 1.92 6.36 6 July 2001 1.95 6.34 13 July 2001 1.97 6.38 20 July 2001 1.98 6.52 27 July 2001 1.98 6.56 3 August 2001 1.92 6.16 10 August 2001 1.92 6.28 17 August 2001 1.93 6.46 24 August 2001 1.96 6.37 31 August 2001 1.97 6.20 7 September 2001 1.97 6.31 14 September 2001 1.97 8.50 21 September 2001 2.21 7.15 28 September 2001 2.20 7.71 5 October 2001 2.17 7.40 12 October 2001 2.16 6.92 19 October 2001 2.16 6.87 26 October 2001 2.19 6.84 2 November 2001 2.26 6.60 9 November 2001 2.27 6.50 16 November 2001 2.18 5.88 23 November 2001 2.07 5.66 30 November 2001 2.03 5.64 7 December 2001 1.98 5.39 14 December 2001 2.00 5.73 21 December 2001 2.02 5.84 28 December 2001 1.96 5.75 4 January 2002 2.05 5.37 11 January 2002 2.11 5.61 18 January 2002 2.15 5.74 25 January 2002 2.10 5.60 1 February 2002 2.17 5.50 8 February 2002 2.30 5.72 15 February 2002 2.29 5.81 22 February 2002 2.36 5.93 1 March 2002 2.26 5.55 8 March 2002 2.15 4.97 15 March 2002 2.19 4.91 22 March 2002 2.17 4.83 29 March 2002 2.17 4.93 5 April 2002 2.18 5.13 12 April 2002 2.21 5.22 19 April 2002 2.18 5.04 26 April 2002 2.24 5.28 3 May 2002 2.35 4.94 10 May 2002 2.37 5.03 17 May 2002 2.31 5.18 24 May 2002 2.34 5.26 31 May 2002 2.12 5.46 7 June 2002 2.12 5.44 14 June 2002 2.20 5.90 21 June 2002 2.31 6.27 28 June 2002 2.48 6.72 5 July 2002 2.51 6.13 12 July 2002 2.49 6.43 19 July 2002 2.59 6.51 26 July 2002 2.78 7.09 2 August 2002 2.75 7.12 9 August 2002 2.88 7.30 16 August 2002 2.89 7.30 23 August 2002 2.71 7.07 30 August 2002 2.72 6.99 6 September 2002 2.78 7.13 13 September 2002 2.78 8.88 20 September 2002 2.80 7.43 27 September 2002 2.89 7.66 4 October 2002 2.89 7.92 11 October 2002 3.14 8.23 18 October 2002 3.14 7.84 25 October 2002 3.11 7.74 1 November 2002 2.98 7.55 8 November 2002 2.82 7.48 15 November 2002 2.76 7.08 22 November 2002 2.54 6.74 29 November 2002 2.54 6.57 6 December 2002 2.50 7.41 13 December 2002 2.51 6.70 20 December 2002 2.39 6.74 27 December 2002 2.40 6.85 3 January 2003 2.36 6.43 10 January 2003 2.25 5.93 17 January 2003 2.33 6.07 24 January 2003 2.38 6.17 31 January 2003 2.36 6.17 7 February 2003 2.32 6.25 14 February 2003 2.36 6.42 21 February 2003 2.33 6.31 28 February 2003 2.29 6.30 7 March 2003 2.32 6.38 14 March 2003 2.31 6.23 21 March 2003 2.22 5.77 28 March 2003 2.13 5.80 4 April 2003 2.06 5.45 11 April 2003 2.05 5.46 18 April 2003 1.99 5.38 25 April 2003 1.85 5.13 2 May 2003 1.81 4.87 9 May 2003 1.76 5.15 16 May 2003 1.81 5.33 23 May 2003 1.85 5.60 30 May 2003 1.82 5.54 6 June 2003 1.78 5.26 13 June 2003 1.77 5.36 20 June 2003 1.71 5.01 27 June 2003 1.72 4.94 4 July 2003 1.71 4.89 11 July 2003 1.67 4.84 18 July 2003 1.62 4.59 25 July 2003 1.59 4.45 1 August 2003 1.63 4.54 8 August 2003 1.66 4.87 15 August 2003 1.66 4.75 22 August 2003 1.61 4.48 29 August 2003 1.60 4.34 5 September 2003 1.60 4.30 12 September 2003 1.57 4.31 19 September 2003 1.50 4.27 26 September 2003 1.53 4.41 3 October 2003 1.52 4.16 10 October 2003 1.49 4.03 17 October 2003 1.41 3.81 24 October 2003 1.46 4.02 31 October 2003 1.43 3.88 7 November 2003 1.41 3.71 14 November 2003 1.39 3.91 21 November 2003 1.40 3.93 28 November 2003 1.37 3.72 5 December 2003 1.33 3.62 12 December 2003 1.35 3.58 19 December 2003 1.31 3.63 26 December 2003 1.32 3.61 2 January 2004 1.30 3.38 9 January 2004 1.27 3.41 16 January 2004 1.26 3.41 23 January 2004 1.25 3.31 30 January 2004 1.28 3.45 6 February 2004 1.30 3.68 13 February 2004 1.29 3.64 20 February 2004 1.31 3.61 27 February 2004 1.33 3.73 5 March 2004 1.33 3.81 12 March 2004 1.35 3.89 19 March 2004 1.37 3.92 26 March 2004 1.38 3.90 2 April 2004 1.33 3.64 9 April 2004 1.30 3.56 16 April 2004 1.29 3.47 23 April 2004 1.27 3.38 30 April 2004 1.28 3.40 7 May 2004 1.33 3.43 14 May 2004 1.37 3.77 21 May 2004 1.38 3.70 28 May 2004 1.37 3.68 4 June 2004 1.37 3.58 11 June 2004 1.35 3.56 18 June 2004 1.35 3.59 25 June 2004 1.35 3.59 2 July 2004 1.36 3.72 9 July 2004 1.38 3.63 16 July 2004 1.34 3.64 23 July 2004 1.33 3.57 30 July 2004 1.32 3.57 6 August 2004 1.37 3.77 13 August 2004 1.35 3.76 20 August 2004 1.35 3.66 27 August 2004 1.32 3.60 3 September 2004 1.31 3.53 10 September 2004 1.28 3.55 17 September 2004 1.28 3.54 24 September 2004 1.26 3.59 1 October 2004 1.24 3.49 8 October 2004 1.21 3.44 15 October 2004 1.21 3.48 22 October 2004 1.22 3.55 29 October 2004 1.18 3.37 5 November 2004 1.14 3.11 12 November 2004 1.14 3.14 19 November 2004 1.11 3.10 26 November 2004 1.10 3.07 3 December 2004 1.09 3.07 10 December 2004 1.07 3.13 17 December 2004 1.06 3.08 24 December 2004 1.05 3.06 31 December 2004 1.05 3.06 7 January 2005 1.06 3.02 14 January 2005 1.08 3.17 21 January 2005 1.08 3.27 28 January 2005 1.06 3.23 4 February 2005 1.03 3.19 11 February 2005 1.03 3.11 18 February 2005 1.00 2.93 25 February 2005 1.00 2.90 4 March 2005 0.97 2.86 11 March 2005 0.98 2.70 18 March 2005 1.03 2.90 25 March 2005 1.08 3.04 1 April 2005 1.15 3.34 8 April 2005 1.14 3.20 15 April 2005 1.21 3.60 22 April 2005 1.20 3.56 29 April 2005 1.24 3.82 6 May 2005 1.22 3.89 13 May 2005 1.27 4.15 20 May 2005 1.28 4.17 27 May 2005 1.23 3.92 3 June 2005 1.20 3.80 10 June 2005 1.23 3.84 17 June 2005 1.23 3.78 24 June 2005 1.25 3.93 1 July 2005 1.23 3.73 8 July 2005 1.24 3.67 15 July 2005 1.20 3.47 22 July 2005 1.18 3.40 29 July 2005 1.16 3.34 5 August 2005 1.16 3.32 12 August 2005 1.19 3.43 19 August 2005 1.18 3.48 26 August 2005 1.15 3.46 2 September 2005 1.20 3.70 9 September 2005 1.22 3.62 16 September 2005 1.21 3.49 23 September 2005 1.23 3.63 30 September 2005 1.21 3.60 7 October 2005 1.23 3.69 14 October 2005 1.28 3.73 21 October 2005 1.28 3.67 28 October 2005 1.28 3.64 4 November 2005 1.26 3.51 11 November 2005 1.27 3.62 18 November 2005 1.30 3.82 25 November 2005 1.30 3.83 2 December 2005 1.29 3.69 9 December 2005 1.32 3.70 16 December 2005 1.32 3.75 23 December 2005 1.33 3.79 30 December 2005 1.34 3.83 6 January 2006 1.33 3.71 13 January 2006 1.34 3.78 20 January 2006 1.33 3.78 27 January 2006 1.29 3.58 3 February 2006 1.31 3.53 10 February 2006 1.30 3.53 17 February 2006 1.29 3.53 24 February 2006 1.26 3.46 3 March 2006 1.27 3.40 10 March 2006 1.28 3.37 17 March 2006 1.27 3.42 24 March 2006 1.30 3.34 31 March 2006 1.29 3.23 7 April 2006 1.30 3.16 14 April 2006 1.30 3.14 21 April 2006 1.30 3.15 28 April 2006 1.28 3.10 5 May 2006 1.25 3.04 12 May 2006 1.27 2.99 19 May 2006 1.31 3.22 26 May 2006 1.31 3.25 2 June 2006 1.35 3.31 9 June 2006 1.39 3.40 16 June 2006 1.42 3.40 23 June 2006 1.45 3.44 30 June 2006 1.44 3.44 7 July 2006 1.46 3.47 14 July 2006 1.47 3.58 21 July 2006 1.47 3.58 28 July 2006 1.47 3.61 4 August 2006 1.47 3.67 11 August 2006 1.47 3.61 18 August 2006 1.47 3.68 25 August 2006 1.47 3.70 1 September 2006 1.47 3.76 8 September 2006 1.46 3.69 15 September 2006 1.46 3.60 22 September 2006 1.48 3.80 29 September 2006 1.48 3.73 6 October 2006 1.48 3.65 13 October 2006 1.47 3.51 20 October 2006 1.45 3.52 27 October 2006 1.44 3.59 3 November 2006 1.41 3.53 10 November 2006 1.39 3.59 17 November 2006 1.40 3.57 24 November 2006 1.40 3.65 1 December 2006 1.42 3.77 8 December 2006 1.39 3.57 15 December 2006 1.40 3.55 22 December 2006 1.40 3.51 29 December 2006 1.39 3.42 5 January 2007 1.38 3.54 12 January 2007 1.38 3.40 19 January 2007 1.35 3.33 26 January 2007 1.34 3.21 2 February 2007 1.34 3.27 9 February 2007 1.32 3.21 16 February 2007 1.30 3.22 23 February 2007 1.28 3.19 2 March 2007 1.33 3.51 9 March 2007 1.34 3.37 16 March 2007 1.37 3.48 23 March 2007 1.38 3.37 30 March 2007 1.39 3.36 6 April 2007 1.40 3.33 13 April 2007 1.38 3.23 20 April 2007 1.37 3.21 27 April 2007 1.38 3.17 4 May 2007 1.38 3.25 11 May 2007 1.36 3.19 18 May 2007 1.36 3.06 25 May 2007 1.35 2.99 1 June 2007 1.36 2.92 8 June 2007 1.39 2.96 15 June 2007 1.38 2.97 22 June 2007 1.39 3.10 29 June 2007 1.42 3.32 6 July 2007 1.42 3.23 13 July 2007 1.44 3.38 20 July 2007 1.49 3.66 27 July 2007 1.72 4.42 3 August 2007 1.71 4.35 10 August 2007 1.68 4.14 17 August 2007 1.79 4.35 24 August 2007 1.81 4.27 31 August 2007 1.80 4.36 7 September 2007 1.84 4.48 14 September 2007 1.88 4.40 21 September 2007 1.81 4.01 28 September 2007 1.79 4.02 5 October 2007 1.74 3.89 12 October 2007 1.68 3.73 19 October 2007 1.72 4.17 26 October 2007 1.74 4.17 2 November 2007 1.81 4.39 9 November 2007 1.91 4.59 16 November 2007 1.99 4.80 23 November 2007 2.05 5.14 30 November 2007 2.12 5.12 7 December 2007 2.22 4.95 14 December 2007 2.22 4.86 21 December 2007 2.20 4.96 28 December 2007 2.19 5.00 4 January 2008 2.28 5.53 11 January 2008 2.39 5.76 18 January 2008 2.48 6.13 25 January 2008 2.52 6.10 1 February 2008 2.54 5.96 8 February 2008 2.60 6.17 15 February 2008 2.67 6.17 22 February 2008 2.71 6.17 29 February 2008 2.75 6.38 7 March 2008 2.87 6.45 14 March 2008 2.99 6.76 21 March 2008 3.09 6.87 28 March 2008 3.06 6.53 4 April 2008 3.01 6.45 11 April 2008 2.97 6.39 18 April 2008 2.91 5.96 25 April 2008 2.81 5.72 2 May 2008 2.64 5.54 9 May 2008 2.66 5.74 16 May 2008 2.65 5.61 23 May 2008 2.69 5.72 30 May 2008 2.65 5.56 6 June 2008 2.61 5.62 13 June 2008 2.60 5.41 20 June 2008 2.65 5.63 27 June 2008 2.80 6.09 4 July 2008 2.84 6.21 11 July 2008 2.91 6.37 18 July 2008 2.95 6.13 25 July 2008 2.95 6.12 1 August 2008 3.00 6.40 8 August 2008 3.04 6.46 15 August 2008 3.08 6.47 22 August 2008 3.13 6.55 29 August 2008 3.15 6.55 5 September 2008 3.19 6.77 12 September 2008 3.29 6.73 19 September 2008 3.58 7.15 26 September 2008 3.69 7.06 3 October 2008 4.10 8.58 10 October 2008 4.81 10.43 17 October 2008 5.12 10.38 24 October 2008 5.25 11.62 31 October 2008 5.41 11.11 7 November 2008 5.36 11.28 14 November 2008 5.45 12.12 21 November 2008 6.03 13.91 28 November 2008 6.20 14.29 5 December 2008 6.36 14.75 12 December 2008 6.51 16.52 19 December 2008 6.58 14.82 26 December 2008 6.52 13.48 2 January 2009 6.53 13.65 9 January 2009 6.04 11.56 16 January 2009 5.99 11.66 23 January 2009 5.91 12.35 30 January 2009 5.59 10.89 6 February 2009 5.38 10.72 13 February 2009 5.32 10.82 20 February 2009 5.43 10.73 27 February 2009 5.59 12.42 6 March 2009 5.60 12.86 13 March 2009 5.77 11.75 20 March 2009 5.89 13.26 27 March 2009 5.89 12.90 3 April 2009 5.80 11.13 10 April 2009 5.63 10.26 17 April 2009 5.37 10.99 24 April 2009 5.21 10.03 1 May 2009 4.78 8.61 8 May 2009 4.44 9.32 15 May 2009 4.49 10.32 22 May 2009 4.32 9.54 29 May 2009 4.04 9.23 5 June 2009 3.81 8.10 12 June 2009 3.59 7.99 19 June 2009 3.54 7.95 26 June 2009 3.58 8.30 3 July 2009 3.55 8.04 10 July 2009 3.56 8.34 17 July 2009 3.34 7.91 24 July 2009 3.15 7.42 31 July 2009 2.87 7.05 7 August 2009 2.70 6.47 14 August 2009 2.65 6.92 21 August 2009 2.82 7.04 28 August 2009 2.79 6.99 4 September 2009 2.79 6.89 11 September 2009 2.78 6.79 18 September 2009 2.63 6.21 25 September 2009 2.63 6.13 2 October 2009 2.67 6.37 9 October 2009 2.59 6.06 16 October 2009 2.58 5.94 23 October 2009 2.51 5.78 30 October 2009 2.53 5.91 6 November 2009 2.50 5.77 13 November 2009 2.47 5.77 20 November 2009 2.47 5.85 27 November 2009 2.53 6.01 4 December 2009 2.48 5.77 11 December 2009 2.33 5.54 18 December 2009 2.22 5.49 25 December 2009 2.13 5.14 1 January 2010 1.98 4.92 8 January 2010 1.85 4.66 15 January 2010 1.84 4.74 22 January 2010 1.91 4.90 25 January 2010 1.92 4.92 Middleleft panel Reserve Bank Survey of Capital Spending Plans Almost 40 percent reported plans to increase equipment spending. Just under 20 percent reported plans to decrease spending. Most commonly cited factors by firms planning an increase: Expectation of strong sales growth Need to replace IT equipment Middleright panel Indicator of Hightech Spending Diffusion index Period NABE survey of 12month IT capital spending plans 2003:Q2 65.0 2003:Q3 63.0 2003:Q4 68.5 2004:Q1 75.5 2004:Q2 72.0 2004:Q3 78.5 2004:Q4 75.5 2005:Q1 77.0 2005:Q2 74.5 2005:Q3 79.0 2005:Q4 73.0 2006:Q1 69.0 2006:Q2 79.0 2006:Q3 74.0 2006:Q4 74.0 2007:Q1 70.5 2007:Q2 66.5 2007:Q3 69.5 2007:Q4 62.0 2008:Q1 69.5 2008:Q2 64.5 2008:Q3 64.0 2008:Q4 56.0 2009:Q1 43.0 2009:Q2 52.5 2009:Q3 51.0 2009:Q4 66.5 2010:Q1 62.0 Note: Based on survey question on firms' plans to increase or decrease their spending on hightech equipment in the next 12 months. [Data values for 2003:Q2 through 2005:Q4 are approximate.] Bottomleft panel Equipment and Software Investment Period Percent change, annual rate 2000:Q1 18.43 2000:Q2 14.98 2000:Q3 0.95 2000:Q4 1.51 2001:Q1 1.29 2001:Q2 13.95 2001:Q3 9.60 2001:Q4 2.74 2002:Q1 4.82 2002:Q2 1.16 2002:Q3 3.30 2002:Q4 7.82 2003:Q1 1.04 2003:Q2 10.79 2003:Q3 13.08 2003:Q4 7.76 2004:Q1 3.40 2004:Q2 13.48 2004:Q3 13.99 2004:Q4 12.23 2005:Q1 2.45 2005:Q2 8.71 2005:Q3 11.16 2005:Q4 2.27 2006:Q1 17.79 2006:Q2 2.11 2006:Q3 2.19 2006:Q4 2.75 2007:Q1 0.47 2007:Q2 6.51 2007:Q3 2.23 2007:Q4 4.46 2008:Q1 0.52 2008:Q2 5.01 2008:Q3 9.38 2008:Q4 25.90 2009:Q1 36.37 2009:Q2 4.88 2009:Q3 1.53 Forecast 2009:Q4 12.37 2010:Q1 8.35 2010:Q2 13.15 2010:Q3 15.73 2010:Q4 14.36 2011:Q1 15.32 2011:Q2 14.36 2011:Q3 14.28 2011:Q4 13.74 Bottomright panel Real Stock of Equipment and Software Period Average annual percent change 19751994 3.6 19952000 6.4 20012007 3.3 20082009 0.4 Forecast 20102011 1.2 Exhibit 6 A Closer Look at Current Labor Market Conditions Topleft panel Private Payrolls Average monthly change (thousands) 2009: Q1 695 Q2 425 Q3 171 Q4 76 2010: Q1 42 Q2 263 Topright panel Nonfarm Business Productivity Chained (2005) dollars per hour Period Actual Structural 2006:Q1 50.82 50.40 2006:Q2 50.89 50.67 2006:Q3 50.65 50.94 2006:Q4 50.94 51.21 2007:Q1 51.09 51.49 2007:Q2 51.44 51.76 2007:Q3 52.14 52.04 2007:Q4 52.39 52.32 2008:Q1 52.38 52.62 2008:Q2 52.89 52.92 2008:Q3 52.98 53.22 2008:Q4 53.19 53.52 2009:Q1 53.34 53.86 2009:Q2 54.23 54.20 2009:Q3 55.16 54.54 2009:Q4 56.00 54.89 Middle panel Initial Unemployment Claims Period Thousands 7 January 1978 352.90 14 January 1978 348.88 21 January 1978 350.96 28 January 1978 350.63 4 February 1978 354.31 11 February 1978 361.88 18 February 1978 381.23 25 February 1978 383.17 4 March 1978 381.53 11 March 1978 377.79 18 March 1978 357.06 25 March 1978 348.25 1 April 1978 342.88 8 April 1978 339.66 15 April 1978 330.07 22 April 1978 326.02 29 April 1978 323.72 6 May 1978 320.74 13 May 1978 324.09 20 May 1978 327.53 27 May 1978 326.30 3 June 1978 320.13 10 June 1978 322.56 17 June 1978 320.79 24 June 1978 323.60 1 July 1978 333.27 8 July 1978 339.45 15 July 1978 346.03 22 July 1978 350.87 29 July 1978 350.64 5 August 1978 352.87 12 August 1978 353.24 19 August 1978 351.80 26 August 1978 348.32 2 September 1978 335.25 9 September 1978 330.97 16 September 1978 325.51 23 September 1978 323.08 30 September 1978 324.27 7 October 1978 325.80 14 October 1978 324.63 21 October 1978 328.36 28 October 1978 327.80 4 November 1978 321.23 11 November 1978 318.03 18 November 1978 319.10 25 November 1978 329.92 2 December 1978 344.91 9 December 1978 354.82 16 December 1978 355.93 23 December 1978 354.23 30 December 1978 349.73 6 January 1979 353.61 13 January 1979 364.84 20 January 1979 361.12 27 January 1979 357.21 3 February 1979 354.61 10 February 1979 346.34 17 February 1979 353.89 24 February 1979 358.26 3 March 1979 359.77 10 March 1979 360.90 17 March 1979 358.80 24 March 1979 357.08 31 March 1979 358.61 7 April 1979 384.02 14 April 1979 408.77 21 April 1979 416.19 28 April 1979 415.16 5 May 1979 387.09 12 May 1979 358.55 19 May 1979 349.35 26 May 1979 347.42 2 June 1979 343.27 9 June 1979 348.53 16 June 1979 349.65 23 June 1979 356.91 30 June 1979 365.00 7 July 1979 365.91 14 July 1979 370.21 21 July 1979 374.49 28 July 1979 379.05 4 August 1979 389.87 11 August 1979 394.49 18 August 1979 392.31 25 August 1979 393.11 1 September 1979 387.34 8 September 1979 385.37 15 September 1979 384.82 22 September 1979 384.42 29 September 1979 384.77 6 October 1979 393.04 13 October 1979 395.12 20 October 1979 399.62 27 October 1979 401.75 3 November 1979 397.61 10 November 1979 402.80 17 November 1979 408.83 24 November 1979 412.55 1 December 1979 417.86 8 December 1979 418.21 15 December 1979 413.52 22 December 1979 427.81 29 December 1979 430.84 5 January 1980 425.58 12 January 1980 424.03 19 January 1980 417.94 26 January 1980 413.90 2 February 1980 416.62 9 February 1980 421.47 16 February 1980 413.73 23 February 1980 417.77 1 March 1980 418.96 8 March 1980 417.29 15 March 1980 421.65 22 March 1980 423.34 29 March 1980 439.55 5 April 1980 451.03 12 April 1980 478.92 19 April 1980 507.16 26 April 1980 529.47 3 May 1980 556.32 10 May 1980 570.51 17 May 1980 594.03 24 May 1980 609.70 31 May 1980 626.39 7 June 1980 628.50 14 June 1980 615.77 21 June 1980 609.11 28 June 1980 606.25 5 July 1980 598.72 12 July 1980 584.22 19 July 1980 576.27 26 July 1980 559.16 2 August 1980 556.57 9 August 1980 556.75 16 August 1980 545.80 23 August 1980 534.14 30 August 1980 517.36 6 September 1980 511.55 13 September 1980 503.60 20 September 1980 491.81 27 September 1980 481.95 4 October 1980 469.69 11 October 1980 458.39 18 October 1980 448.28 25 October 1980 437.06 1 November 1980 426.48 8 November 1980 416.42 15 November 1980 417.24 22 November 1980 412.38 29 November 1980 410.64 6 December 1980 413.13 13 December 1980 409.45 20 December 1980 413.01 27 December 1980 409.59 3 January 1981 408.01 10 January 1981 409.79 17 January 1981 411.93 24 January 1981 411.34 31 January 1981 413.75 7 February 1981 413.88 14 February 1981 414.34 21 February 1981 424.83 28 February 1981 428.28 7 March 1981 425.50 14 March 1981 421.93 21 March 1981 412.51 28 March 1981 407.20 4 April 1981 408.99 11 April 1981 405.89 18 April 1981 403.82 25 April 1981 409.60 2 May 1981 408.77 9 May 1981 415.57 16 May 1981 421.00 23 May 1981 415.97 30 May 1981 416.78 6 June 1981 417.89 13 June 1981 420.31 20 June 1981 425.34 27 June 1981 432.36 4 July 1981 440.30 11 July 1981 441.00 18 July 1981 439.67 25 July 1981 430.28 1 August 1981 434.52 8 August 1981 439.79 15 August 1981 442.81 22 August 1981 449.84 29 August 1981 443.55 5 September 1981 449.90 12 September 1981 452.77 19 September 1981 462.67 26 September 1981 472.65 3 October 1981 476.86 10 October 1981 486.06 17 October 1981 489.28 24 October 1981 487.20 31 October 1981 493.34 7 November 1981 499.15 14 November 1981 506.71 21 November 1981 501.93 28 November 1981 511.33 5 December 1981 522.36 12 December 1981 530.64 19 December 1981 549.47 26 December 1981 550.42 2 January 1982 534.83 9 January 1982 533.50 16 January 1982 521.11 23 January 1982 523.30 30 January 1982 545.18 6 February 1982 548.04 13 February 1982 552.56 20 February 1982 547.41 27 February 1982 533.68 6 March 1982 533.66 13 March 1982 541.77 20 March 1982 545.05 27 March 1982 556.54 3 April 1982 561.93 10 April 1982 573.40 17 April 1982 583.47 24 April 1982 587.02 1 May 1982 586.68 8 May 1982 586.27 15 May 1982 583.38 22 May 1982 582.86 29 May 1982 585.77 5 June 1982 592.68 12 June 1982 599.83 19 June 1982 601.23 26 June 1982 599.76 3 July 1982 596.90 10 July 1982 586.23 17 July 1982 579.99 24 July 1982 568.41 31 July 1982 569.70 7 August 1982 578.39 14 August 1982 596.02 21 August 1982 618.99 28 August 1982 629.58 4 September 1982 640.95 11 September 1982 641.85 18 September 1982 654.86 25 September 1982 660.85 2 October 1982 671.66 9 October 1982 674.26 16 October 1982 668.43 23 October 1982 656.39 30 October 1982 641.84 6 November 1982 626.43 13 November 1982 612.16 20 November 1982 600.67 27 November 1982 594.36 4 December 1982 586.20 11 December 1982 569.62 18 December 1982 554.23 25 December 1982 523.68 1 January 1983 517.91 8 January 1983 512.11 15 January 1983 503.06 22 January 1983 500.53 29 January 1983 492.76 5 February 1983 490.63 12 February 1983 492.24 19 February 1983 494.18 26 February 1983 488.73 5 March 1983 487.23 12 March 1983 484.64 19 March 1983 480.51 26 March 1983 480.46 2 April 1983 479.29 9 April 1983 484.40 16 April 1983 495.50 23 April 1983 497.29 30 April 1983 496.98 7 May 1983 496.60 14 May 1983 483.95 21 May 1983 477.07 28 May 1983 468.15 4 June 1983 459.46 11 June 1983 453.88 18 June 1983 447.24 25 June 1983 444.38 2 July 1983 435.07 9 July 1983 427.61 16 July 1983 418.07 23 July 1983 406.17 30 July 1983 404.33 6 August 1983 405.17 13 August 1983 420.44 20 August 1983 433.00 27 August 1983 435.86 3 September 1983 434.65 10 September 1983 421.12 17 September 1983 411.14 24 September 1983 408.49 1 October 1983 409.14 8 October 1983 410.07 15 October 1983 407.29 22 October 1983 401.83 29 October 1983 399.46 5 November 1983 396.53 12 November 1983 395.60 19 November 1983 393.88 26 November 1983 392.56 3 December 1983 385.14 10 December 1983 379.70 17 December 1983 373.47 24 December 1983 368.05 31 December 1983 369.83 7 January 1984 366.66 14 January 1984 363.86 21 January 1984 353.05 28 January 1984 350.89 4 February 1984 347.59 11 February 1984 344.27 18 February 1984 344.56 25 February 1984 339.49 3 March 1984 340.51 10 March 1984 342.54 17 March 1984 346.14 24 March 1984 346.84 31 March 1984 345.47 7 April 1984 354.33 14 April 1984 356.30 21 April 1984 360.70 28 April 1984 369.35 5 May 1984 365.39 12 May 1984 368.19 19 May 1984 365.90 26 May 1984 360.32 2 June 1984 357.74 9 June 1984 358.04 16 June 1984 359.62 23 June 1984 361.65 30 June 1984 362.90 7 July 1984 361.99 14 July 1984 361.79 21 July 1984 360.69 28 July 1984 360.33 4 August 1984 364.35 11 August 1984 369.30 18 August 1984 380.30 25 August 1984 389.40 1 September 1984 390.15 8 September 1984 395.80 15 September 1984 393.62 22 September 1984 393.63 29 September 1984 397.96 6 October 1984 398.26 13 October 1984 402.80 20 October 1984 413.64 27 October 1984 419.31 3 November 1984 424.31 10 November 1984 419.83 17 November 1984 405.92 24 November 1984 407.02 1 December 1984 401.27 8 December 1984 398.88 15 December 1984 399.75 22 December 1984 387.21 29 December 1984 381.74 5 January 1985 378.12 12 January 1985 378.22 19 January 1985 373.24 26 January 1985 370.48 2 February 1985 374.87 9 February 1985 378.59 16 February 1985 386.33 23 February 1985 391.79 2 March 1985 388.69 9 March 1985 384.67 16 March 1985 383.69 23 March 1985 379.61 30 March 1985 382.58 6 April 1985 387.47 13 April 1985 393.74 20 April 1985 398.27 27 April 1985 398.23 4 May 1985 394.56 11 May 1985 390.26 18 May 1985 390.29 25 May 1985 392.83 1 June 1985 393.49 8 June 1985 395.72 15 June 1985 395.44 22 June 1985 393.05 29 June 1985 392.42 6 July 1985 390.37 13 July 1985 389.40 20 July 1985 385.26 27 July 1985 378.06 3 August 1985 381.27 10 August 1985 385.05 17 August 1985 392.32 24 August 1985 403.20 31 August 1985 403.56 7 September 1985 409.55 14 September 1985 411.86 21 September 1985 410.70 28 September 1985 408.24 5 October 1985 402.99 12 October 1985 401.11 19 October 1985 400.92 26 October 1985 405.78 2 November 1985 404.25 9 November 1985 403.37 16 November 1985 402.78 23 November 1985 393.65 30 November 1985 392.29 7 December 1985 392.77 14 December 1985 388.90 21 December 1985 385.82 28 December 1985 385.12 4 January 1986 375.99 11 January 1986 379.76 18 January 1986 378.41 25 January 1986 366.74 1 February 1986 367.13 8 February 1986 359.31 15 February 1986 357.71 22 February 1986 369.33 1 March 1986 371.97 8 March 1986 372.10 15 March 1986 378.13 22 March 1986 377.40 29 March 1986 382.86 5 April 1986 386.55 12 April 1986 388.20 19 April 1986 387.22 26 April 1986 385.90 3 May 1986 388.66 10 May 1986 390.35 17 May 1986 390.40 24 May 1986 389.20 31 May 1986 384.59 7 June 1986 379.50 14 June 1986 375.79 21 June 1986 371.10 28 June 1986 370.55 5 July 1986 369.44 12 July 1986 367.60 19 July 1986 364.14 26 July 1986 361.71 2 August 1986 373.07 9 August 1986 386.88 16 August 1986 400.10 23 August 1986 408.86 30 August 1986 405.13 6 September 1986 401.05 13 September 1986 397.84 20 September 1986 398.35 27 September 1986 395.54 4 October 1986 393.16 11 October 1986 391.54 18 October 1986 388.22 25 October 1986 383.34 1 November 1986 376.57 8 November 1986 367.10 15 November 1986 362.73 22 November 1986 362.42 29 November 1986 363.11 6 December 1986 366.46 13 December 1986 368.25 20 December 1986 363.66 27 December 1986 358.44 3 January 1987 348.55 10 January 1987 341.82 17 January 1987 339.47 24 January 1987 339.59 31 January 1987 351.37 7 February 1987 356.31 14 February 1987 355.52 21 February 1987 354.33 28 February 1987 348.70 7 March 1987 340.86 14 March 1987 340.18 21 March 1987 338.62 28 March 1987 333.32 4 April 1987 331.59 11 April 1987 332.35 18 April 1987 335.73 25 April 1987 336.16 2 May 1987 336.19 9 May 1987 330.43 16 May 1987 328.51 23 May 1987 332.23 30 May 1987 331.13 6 June 1987 334.20 13 June 1987 327.96 20 June 1987 322.03 27 June 1987 322.05 4 July 1987 321.61 11 July 1987 321.94 18 July 1987 319.61 25 July 1987 319.19 1 August 1987 324.77 8 August 1987 327.28 15 August 1987 329.58 22 August 1987 326.65 29 August 1987 320.16 5 September 1987 317.35 12 September 1987 311.73 19 September 1987 310.89 26 September 1987 309.52 3 October 1987 305.79 10 October 1987 308.62 17 October 1987 306.80 24 October 1987 302.98 31 October 1987 299.92 7 November 1987 297.12 14 November 1987 298.62 21 November 1987 302.46 28 November 1987 306.86 5 December 1987 312.43 12 December 1987 314.81 19 December 1987 316.34 26 December 1987 318.63 2 January 1988 317.70 9 January 1988 319.57 16 January 1988 329.07 23 January 1988 333.92 30 January 1988 340.53 6 February 1988 339.01 13 February 1988 326.68 20 February 1988 324.59 27 February 1988 318.91 5 March 1988 316.09 12 March 1988 314.23 19 March 1988 309.38 26 March 1988 305.51 2 April 1988 306.00 9 April 1988 308.27 16 April 1988 310.06 23 April 1988 312.27 30 April 1988 313.24 7 May 1988 312.30 14 May 1988 312.29 21 May 1988 314.03 28 May 1988 314.05 4 June 1988 314.21 11 June 1988 311.79 18 June 1988 309.62 25 June 1988 308.12 2 July 1988 306.96 9 July 1988 306.64 16 July 1988 307.81 23 July 1988 319.47 30 July 1988 325.88 6 August 1988 329.09 13 August 1988 328.31 20 August 1988 318.94 27 August 1988 314.90 3 September 1988 312.38 10 September 1988 310.56 17 September 1988 307.99 24 September 1988 304.41 1 October 1988 300.94 8 October 1988 297.74 15 October 1988 294.43 22 October 1988 290.85 29 October 1988 291.39 5 November 1988 289.62 12 November 1988 287.33 19 November 1988 289.22 26 November 1988 290.35 3 December 1988 293.48 10 December 1988 293.84 17 December 1988 293.57 24 December 1988 290.38 31 December 1988 291.87 7 January 1989 295.36 14 January 1989 293.02 21 January 1989 292.08 28 January 1989 289.92 4 February 1989 287.16 11 February 1989 296.78 18 February 1989 302.56 25 February 1989 303.84 4 March 1989 313.07 11 March 1989 313.87 18 March 1989 317.13 25 March 1989 321.80 1 April 1989 321.31 8 April 1989 318.45 15 April 1989 315.45 22 April 1989 311.71 29 April 1989 308.65 6 May 1989 310.23 13 May 1989 316.49 20 May 1989 320.75 27 May 1989 324.31 3 June 1989 325.64 10 June 1989 325.67 17 June 1989 329.65 24 June 1989 332.79 1 July 1989 338.71 8 July 1989 341.06 15 July 1989 344.01 22 July 1989 342.74 29 July 1989 339.66 5 August 1989 338.79 12 August 1989 336.87 19 August 1989 335.45 26 August 1989 334.36 2 September 1989 332.31 9 September 1989 331.00 16 September 1989 332.82 23 September 1989 333.27 30 September 1989 337.75 7 October 1989 355.67 14 October 1989 358.30 21 October 1989 361.64 28 October 1989 363.43 4 November 1989 344.95 11 November 1989 342.86 18 November 1989 339.95 25 November 1989 336.79 2 December 1989 339.42 9 December 1989 339.87 16 December 1989 344.69 23 December 1989 354.52 30 December 1989 357.92 6 January 1990 362.10 13 January 1990 365.67 20 January 1990 364.04 27 January 1990 360.80 3 February 1990 364.09 10 February 1990 363.42 17 February 1990 356.84 24 February 1990 358.28 3 March 1990 354.01 10 March 1990 349.66 17 March 1990 349.91 24 March 1990 345.04 31 March 1990 343.93 7 April 1990 348.34 14 April 1990 350.19 21 April 1990 357.53 28 April 1990 361.60 5 May 1990 358.49 12 May 1990 358.08 19 May 1990 356.19 26 May 1990 355.41 2 June 1990 358.83 9 June 1990 359.74 16 June 1990 361.38 23 June 1990 361.98 30 June 1990 360.91 7 July 1990 361.83 14 July 1990 363.73 21 July 1990 365.83 28 July 1990 367.02 4 August 1990 368.60 11 August 1990 372.04 18 August 1990 377.78 25 August 1990 384.01 1 September 1990 389.76 8 September 1990 392.15 15 September 1990 392.64 22 September 1990 391.50 29 September 1990 394.65 6 October 1990 398.11 13 October 1990 404.83 20 October 1990 416.41 27 October 1990 425.43 3 November 1990 431.93 10 November 1990 438.35 17 November 1990 441.24 24 November 1990 446.75 1 December 1990 452.08 8 December 1990 452.49 15 December 1990 452.61 22 December 1990 455.57 29 December 1990 456.22 5 January 1991 447.73 12 January 1991 445.26 19 January 1991 437.93 26 January 1991 439.95 2 February 1991 456.83 9 February 1991 467.50 16 February 1991 474.76 23 February 1991 484.10 2 March 1991 485.48 9 March 1991 490.17 16 March 1991 496.08 23 March 1991 498.62 30 March 1991 501.34 6 April 1991 489.64 13 April 1991 484.35 20 April 1991 476.46 27 April 1991 467.09 4 May 1991 466.73 11 May 1991 459.07 18 May 1991 451.61 25 May 1991 446.80 1 June 1991 442.15 8 June 1991 440.90 15 June 1991 436.18 22 June 1991 431.24 29 June 1991 427.72 6 July 1991 423.02 13 July 1991 420.83 20 July 1991 417.25 27 July 1991 418.57 3 August 1991 422.62 10 August 1991 426.74 17 August 1991 432.83 24 August 1991 433.35 31 August 1991 430.15 7 September 1991 427.04 14 September 1991 423.23 21 September 1991 421.62 28 September 1991 424.61 5 October 1991 424.42 12 October 1991 426.25 19 October 1991 426.18 26 October 1991 422.68 2 November 1991 428.41 9 November 1991 435.55 16 November 1991 440.69 23 November 1991 445.73 30 November 1991 445.05 7 December 1991 450.47 14 December 1991 459.34 21 December 1991 457.33 28 December 1991 456.62 4 January 1992 445.85 11 January 1992 437.09 18 January 1992 439.02 25 January 1992 438.90 1 February 1992 440.96 8 February 1992 442.39 15 February 1992 443.01 22 February 1992 441.84 29 February 1992 442.73 7 March 1992 436.60 14 March 1992 434.40 21 March 1992 435.45 28 March 1992 429.49 4 April 1992 427.23 11 April 1992 421.23 18 April 1992 417.18 25 April 1992 418.12 2 May 1992 422.90 9 May 1992 423.81 16 May 1992 421.44 23 May 1992 418.94 30 May 1992 413.97 6 June 1992 413.87 13 June 1992 415.37 20 June 1992 416.80 27 June 1992 418.99 4 July 1992 416.77 11 July 1992 413.79 18 July 1992 406.94 25 July 1992 442.86 1 August 1992 446.83 8 August 1992 446.19 15 August 1992 448.39 22 August 1992 406.87 29 August 1992 402.98 5 September 1992 405.50 12 September 1992 409.16 19 September 1992 416.56 26 September 1992 416.94 3 October 1992 412.50 10 October 1992 402.14 17 October 1992 391.71 24 October 1992 381.11 31 October 1992 372.74 7 November 1992 372.60 14 November 1992 370.52 21 November 1992 368.00 28 November 1992 362.00 5 December 1992 356.11 12 December 1992 351.52 19 December 1992 345.74 26 December 1992 338.71 2 January 1993 336.37 9 January 1993 335.13 16 January 1993 339.72 23 January 1993 346.90 30 January 1993 346.86 6 February 1993 338.25 13 February 1993 330.61 20 February 1993 333.14 27 February 1993 338.43 6 March 1993 347.01 13 March 1993 353.22 20 March 1993 349.89 27 March 1993 350.99 3 April 1993 353.77 10 April 1993 355.46 17 April 1993 358.79 24 April 1993 354.72 1 May 1993 349.21 8 May 1993 345.76 15 May 1993 344.22 22 May 1993 342.25 29 May 1993 343.77 5 June 1993 344.73 12 June 1993 344.21 19 June 1993 344.96 26 June 1993 342.67 3 July 1993 340.41 10 July 1993 333.19 17 July 1993 330.73 24 July 1993 349.57 31 July 1993 355.10 7 August 1993 363.13 14 August 1993 364.22 21 August 1993 345.89 28 August 1993 341.05 4 September 1993 338.03 11 September 1993 336.37 18 September 1993 337.34 25 September 1993 338.92 2 October 1993 338.54 9 October 1993 344.21 16 October 1993 347.49 23 October 1993 350.16 30 October 1993 354.03 6 November 1993 352.56 13 November 1993 348.20 20 November 1993 343.68 27 November 1993 340.87 4 December 1993 337.84 11 December 1993 336.00 18 December 1993 334.90 25 December 1993 323.10 1 January 1994 323.98 8 January 1994 326.37 15 January 1994 332.29 22 January 1994 347.50 29 January 1994 363.67 5 February 1994 367.97 12 February 1994 367.75 19 February 1994 368.17 26 February 1994 348.47 5 March 1994 345.40 12 March 1994 342.10 19 March 1994 336.89 26 March 1994 335.59 2 April 1994 334.11 9 April 1994 336.08 16 April 1994 341.71 23 April 1994 344.16 30 April 1994 344.46 7 May 1994 349.91 14 May 1994 351.41 21 May 1994 357.75 28 May 1994 358.91 4 June 1994 352.49 11 June 1994 346.90 18 June 1994 341.66 25 June 1994 339.95 2 July 1994 337.21 9 July 1994 338.15 16 July 1994 344.02 23 July 1994 344.89 30 July 1994 344.45 6 August 1994 343.62 13 August 1994 337.62 20 August 1994 334.05 27 August 1994 336.20 3 September 1994 336.31 10 September 1994 335.31 17 September 1994 334.12 24 September 1994 330.06 1 October 1994 327.96 8 October 1994 330.37 15 October 1994 332.69 22 October 1994 333.95 29 October 1994 334.14 5 November 1994 330.92 12 November 1994 329.39 19 November 1994 328.41 26 November 1994 328.00 3 December 1994 326.87 10 December 1994 326.98 17 December 1994 327.99 24 December 1994 324.24 31 December 1994 323.07 7 January 1995 325.15 14 January 1995 329.46 21 January 1995 332.07 28 January 1995 333.27 4 February 1995 329.87 11 February 1995 330.07 18 February 1995 334.51 25 February 1995 337.54 4 March 1995 341.16 11 March 1995 340.94 18 March 1995 341.12 25 March 1995 340.10 1 April 1995 339.26 8 April 1995 339.18 15 April 1995 342.20 22 April 1995 346.49 29 April 1995 353.84 6 May 1995 358.20 13 May 1995 360.92 20 May 1995 367.85 27 May 1995 370.16 3 June 1995 369.73 10 June 1995 369.94 17 June 1995 370.37 24 June 1995 366.42 1 July 1995 364.61 8 July 1995 365.87 15 July 1995 368.59 22 July 1995 376.62 29 July 1995 375.71 5 August 1995 370.36 12 August 1995 361.28 19 August 1995 354.12 26 August 1995 356.04 2 September 1995 357.13 9 September 1995 361.72 16 September 1995 365.37 23 September 1995 363.82 30 September 1995 363.69 7 October 1995 364.42 14 October 1995 362.58 21 October 1995 365.76 28 October 1995 371.36 4 November 1995 372.90 11 November 1995 373.19 18 November 1995 376.59 25 November 1995 377.14 2 December 1995 375.34 9 December 1995 369.36 16 December 1995 367.82 23 December 1995 366.55 30 December 1995 362.96 6 January 1996 366.60 13 January 1996 356.56 20 January 1996 366.88 27 January 1996 373.94 3 February 1996 377.18 10 February 1996 390.65 17 February 1996 382.59 24 February 1996 377.19 2 March 1996 375.90 9 March 1996 369.51 16 March 1996 369.83 23 March 1996 385.04 30 March 1996 391.22 6 April 1996 393.03 13 April 1996 386.16 20 April 1996 371.74 27 April 1996 359.22 4 May 1996 351.72 11 May 1996 350.53 18 May 1996 344.61 25 May 1996 344.55 1 June 1996 345.01 8 June 1996 344.69 15 June 1996 344.09 22 June 1996 343.70 29 June 1996 342.83 6 July 1996 340.53 13 July 1996 341.57 20 July 1996 339.15 27 July 1996 336.73 3 August 1996 332.89 10 August 1996 329.04 17 August 1996 330.25 24 August 1996 332.77 31 August 1996 333.36 7 September 1996 333.75 14 September 1996 334.17 21 September 1996 337.77 28 September 1996 342.69 5 October 1996 343.23 12 October 1996 342.29 19 October 1996 338.20 26 October 1996 339.04 2 November 1996 338.70 9 November 1996 336.92 16 November 1996 338.51 23 November 1996 337.35 30 November 1996 336.85 7 December 1996 343.92 14 December 1996 346.58 21 December 1996 347.26 28 December 1996 353.54 4 January 1997 351.52 11 January 1997 344.41 18 January 1997 343.30 25 January 1997 339.24 1 February 1997 335.68 8 February 1997 333.47 15 February 1997 325.35 22 February 1997 320.77 1 March 1997 317.71 8 March 1997 318.29 15 March 1997 319.74 22 March 1997 317.91 29 March 1997 318.86 5 April 1997 320.82 12 April 1997 323.73 19 April 1997 324.12 26 April 1997 327.29 3 May 1997 331.54 10 May 1997 328.40 17 May 1997 329.72 24 May 1997 324.45 31 May 1997 319.27 7 June 1997 322.17 14 June 1997 325.44 21 June 1997 325.30 28 June 1997 325.55 5 July 1997 329.70 12 July 1997 328.08 19 July 1997 324.49 26 July 1997 320.28 2 August 1997 313.75 9 August 1997 314.01 16 August 1997 324.50 23 August 1997 329.80 30 August 1997 332.79 6 September 1997 328.81 13 September 1997 321.60 20 September 1997 319.07 27 September 1997 315.39 4 October 1997 314.94 11 October 1997 312.66 18 October 1997 312.98 25 October 1997 310.27 1 November 1997 310.68 8 November 1997 311.43 15 November 1997 313.23 22 November 1997 313.86 29 November 1997 315.09 6 December 1997 317.21 13 December 1997 316.55 20 December 1997 316.96 27 December 1997 313.09 3 January 1998 311.88 10 January 1998 313.94 17 January 1998 321.46 24 January 1998 322.55 31 January 1998 323.40 7 February 1998 318.57 14 February 1998 313.68 21 February 1998 318.81 28 February 1998 319.12 7 March 1998 318.35 14 March 1998 317.78 21 March 1998 316.16 28 March 1998 314.94 4 April 1998 315.92 11 April 1998 312.18 18 April 1998 311.24 25 April 1998 311.10 2 May 1998 309.12 9 May 1998 309.75 16 May 1998 309.10 23 May 1998 308.60 30 May 1998 313.02 6 June 1998 312.96 13 June 1998 314.58 20 June 1998 324.50 27 June 1998 337.99 4 July 1998 352.07 11 July 1998 351.82 18 July 1998 343.41 25 July 1998 333.07 1 August 1998 324.13 8 August 1998 323.18 15 August 1998 321.30 22 August 1998 313.27 29 August 1998 309.05 5 September 1998 308.09 12 September 1998 307.19 19 September 1998 307.94 26 September 1998 303.97 3 October 1998 301.39 10 October 1998 304.45 17 October 1998 307.67 24 October 1998 311.36 31 October 1998 312.84 7 November 1998 312.72 14 November 1998 316.52 21 November 1998 315.41 28 November 1998 315.86 5 December 1998 318.28 12 December 1998 311.27 19 December 1998 309.47 26 December 1998 315.87 2 January 1999 317.16 9 January 1999 327.00 16 January 1999 337.43 23 January 1999 331.36 30 January 1999 324.90 6 February 1999 311.35 13 February 1999 304.59 20 February 1999 302.25 27 February 1999 301.17 6 March 1999 303.53 13 March 1999 302.70 20 March 1999 303.42 27 March 1999 302.69 3 April 1999 305.10 10 April 1999 307.70 17 April 1999 310.01 24 April 1999 308.22 1 May 1999 304.72 8 May 1999 302.43 15 May 1999 299.11 22 May 1999 301.07 29 May 1999 302.98 5 June 1999 301.42 12 June 1999 298.81 19 June 1999 297.22 26 June 1999 294.23 3 July 1999 290.04 10 July 1999 289.49 17 July 1999 293.77 24 July 1999 297.49 31 July 1999 300.88 7 August 1999 302.51 14 August 1999 298.26 21 August 1999 293.16 28 August 1999 290.55 4 September 1999 289.34 11 September 1999 286.65 18 September 1999 285.51 25 September 1999 289.57 2 October 1999 294.34 9 October 1999 296.70 16 October 1999 298.09 23 October 1999 291.69 30 October 1999 285.84 6 November 1999 283.74 13 November 1999 282.19 20 November 1999 281.21 27 November 1999 281.80 4 December 1999 282.97 11 December 1999 280.88 18 December 1999 283.51 25 December 1999 278.57 1 January 2000 278.34 8 January 2000 284.81 15 January 2000 285.44 22 January 2000 289.54 29 January 2000 289.33 5 February 2000 292.79 12 February 2000 295.48 19 February 2000 295.18 26 February 2000 293.90 4 March 2000 287.32 11 March 2000 279.76 18 March 2000 276.59 25 March 2000 274.58 1 April 2000 269.75 8 April 2000 269.19 15 April 2000 266.29 22 April 2000 266.65 29 April 2000 272.85 6 May 2000 279.08 13 May 2000 283.30 20 May 2000 284.79 27 May 2000 282.06 3 June 2000 281.31 10 June 2000 283.41 17 June 2000 286.97 24 June 2000 290.96 1 July 2000 288.87 8 July 2000 291.09 15 July 2000 293.48 22 July 2000 294.48 29 July 2000 298.71 5 August 2000 301.91 12 August 2000 304.89 19 August 2000 309.24 26 August 2000 312.60 2 September 2000 311.49 9 September 2000 309.94 16 September 2000 308.29 23 September 2000 302.44 30 September 2000 300.19 7 October 2000 300.05 14 October 2000 297.15 21 October 2000 298.93 28 October 2000 301.09 4 November 2000 306.75 11 November 2000 311.38 18 November 2000 320.55 25 November 2000 334.38 2 December 2000 335.98 9 December 2000 336.83 16 December 2000 342.32 23 December 2000 344.11 30 December 2000 348.01 6 January 2001 351.98 13 January 2001 343.09 20 January 2001 337.94 27 January 2001 340.21 3 February 2001 349.78 10 February 2001 361.55 17 February 2001 365.31 24 February 2001 371.18 3 March 2001 373.28 10 March 2001 380.04 17 March 2001 388.72 24 March 2001 386.74 31 March 2001 387.86 7 April 2001 389.25 14 April 2001 386.92 21 April 2001 392.51 28 April 2001 396.85 5 May 2001 392.66 12 May 2001 394.27 19 May 2001 394.82 26 May 2001 394.73 2 June 2001 401.03 9 June 2001 406.21 16 June 2001 404.21 23 June 2001 398.03 30 June 2001 395.01 7 July 2001 392.68 14 July 2001 395.43 21 July 2001 399.78 28 July 2001 398.07 4 August 2001 397.90 11 August 2001 395.09 18 August 2001 396.03 25 August 2001 397.80 1 September 2001 398.23 8 September 2001 401.67 15 September 2001 399.85 22 September 2001 414.38 29 September 2001 442.96 6 October 2001 460.01 13 October 2001 481.95 20 October 2001 489.14 27 October 2001 480.81 3 November 2001 471.69 10 November 2001 458.13 17 November 2001 445.62 24 November 2001 447.66 1 December 2001 453.93 8 December 2001 445.27 15 December 2001 434.69 22 December 2001 415.82 29 December 2001 404.90 5 January 2002 405.87 12 January 2002 413.03 19 January 2002 410.24 26 January 2002 408.57 2 February 2002 410.31 9 February 2002 405.19 16 February 2002 403.28 23 February 2002 399.25 2 March 2002 396.06 9 March 2002 396.47 16 March 2002 395.06 23 March 2002 399.25 30 March 2002 421.04 6 April 2002 432.51 13 April 2002 445.02 20 April 2002 445.27 27 April 2002 429.02 4 May 2002 420.15 11 May 2002 413.05 18 May 2002 411.93 25 May 2002 409.33 1 June 2002 401.37 8 June 2002 394.94 15 June 2002 391.00 22 June 2002 387.19 29 June 2002 389.23 6 July 2002 390.18 13 July 2002 387.31 20 July 2002 385.06 27 July 2002 386.23 3 August 2002 385.29 10 August 2002 386.52 17 August 2002 391.59 24 August 2002 393.51 31 August 2002 395.24 7 September 2002 401.87 14 September 2002 405.08 21 September 2002 405.72 28 September 2002 409.36 5 October 2002 406.45 12 October 2002 404.59 19 October 2002 407.36 26 October 2002 407.38 2 November 2002 407.54 9 November 2002 406.33 16 November 2002 400.71 23 November 2002 395.87 30 November 2002 389.08 7 December 2002 395.36 14 December 2002 405.36 21 December 2002 406.42 28 December 2002 414.38 4 January 2003 406.41 11 January 2003 393.60 18 January 2003 395.57 25 January 2003 394.95 1 February 2003 399.99 8 February 2003 403.01 15 February 2003 407.46 22 February 2003 411.06 1 March 2003 416.70 8 March 2003 425.18 15 March 2003 427.73 22 March 2003 425.11 29 March 2003 425.08 5 April 2003 423.38 12 April 2003 424.31 19 April 2003 434.00 26 April 2003 436.05 3 May 2003 438.74 10 May 2003 434.54 17 May 2003 428.46 24 May 2003 422.10 31 May 2003 422.94 7 June 2003 425.97 14 June 2003 424.99 21 June 2003 422.35 28 June 2003 421.78 5 July 2003 422.75 12 July 2003 420.53 19 July 2003 419.23 26 July 2003 411.42 2 August 2003 403.52 9 August 2003 401.40 16 August 2003 400.09 23 August 2003 398.38 30 August 2003 399.80 6 September 2003 404.20 13 September 2003 403.37 20 September 2003 400.39 27 September 2003 395.43 4 October 2003 386.58 11 October 2003 382.02 18 October 2003 384.05 25 October 2003 381.95 1 November 2003 376.07 8 November 2003 374.91 15 November 2003 370.54 22 November 2003 364.32 29 November 2003 363.03 6 December 2003 362.06 13 December 2003 360.41 20 December 2003 360.49 27 December 2003 358.49 3 January 2004 355.55 10 January 2004 353.32 17 January 2004 355.28 24 January 2004 356.15 31 January 2004 361.18 7 February 2004 367.61 14 February 2004 366.10 21 February 2004 367.72 28 February 2004 360.68 6 March 2004 351.80 13 March 2004 347.45 20 March 2004 344.18 27 March 2004 342.24 3 April 2004 339.97 10 April 2004 344.10 17 April 2004 348.53 24 April 2004 348.41 1 May 2004 345.75 8 May 2004 339.33 15 May 2004 335.68 22 May 2004 336.36 29 May 2004 339.44 5 June 2004 345.89 12 June 2004 343.36 19 June 2004 346.40 26 June 2004 349.30 3 July 2004 342.13 10 July 2004 343.57 17 July 2004 343.64 24 July 2004 343.46 31 July 2004 347.04 7 August 2004 344.65 14 August 2004 338.98 21 August 2004 337.73 28 August 2004 340.43 4 September 2004 338.07 11 September 2004 337.82 18 September 2004 337.52 25 September 2004 337.44 2 October 2004 339.61 9 October 2004 341.46 16 October 2004 337.93 23 October 2004 334.59 30 October 2004 333.82 6 November 2004 331.79 13 November 2004 334.17 20 November 2004 327.98 27 November 2004 328.90 4 December 2004 332.06 11 December 2004 326.98 18 December 2004 329.13 25 December 2004 325.32 1 January 2005 327.98 8 January 2005 339.01 15 January 2005 342.25 22 January 2005 344.23 29 January 2005 338.43 5 February 2005 325.07 12 February 2005 318.34 19 February 2005 316.26 26 February 2005 312.27 5 March 2005 319.25 12 March 2005 323.63 19 March 2005 326.36 26 March 2005 333.57 2 April 2005 334.28 9 April 2005 333.92 16 April 2005 328.53 23 April 2005 322.57 30 April 2005 321.76 7 May 2005 322.85 14 May 2005 326.60 21 May 2005 327.21 28 May 2005 329.02 4 June 2005 331.74 11 June 2005 334.28 18 June 2005 334.61 25 June 2005 327.20 2 July 2005 324.41 9 July 2005 325.08 16 July 2005 325.05 23 July 2005 326.80 30 July 2005 323.90 6 August 2005 317.52 13 August 2005 316.63 20 August 2005 315.96 27 August 2005 316.62 3 September 2005 320.66 10 September 2005 346.57 17 September 2005 373.22 24 September 2005 383.41 1 October 2005 397.54 8 October 2005 387.37 15 October 2005 368.47 22 October 2005 359.77 29 October 2005 344.25 5 November 2005 329.88 12 November 2005 320.02 19 November 2005 319.41 26 November 2005 315.88 3 December 2005 314.45 10 December 2005 318.65 17 December 2005 315.70 24 December 2005 318.14 31 December 2005 314.27 7 January 2006 312.50 14 January 2006 305.93 21 January 2006 299.08 28 January 2006 293.62 4 February 2006 286.17 11 February 2006 289.19 18 February 2006 288.07 25 February 2006 290.85 4 March 2006 294.67 11 March 2006 297.48 18 March 2006 301.98 25 March 2006 302.70 1 April 2006 300.26 8 April 2006 298.55 15 April 2006 297.41 22 April 2006 300.77 29 April 2006 307.65 6 May 2006 319.20 13 May 2006 328.97 20 May 2006 332.04 27 May 2006 334.72 3 June 2006 325.22 10 June 2006 315.63 17 June 2006 313.09 24 June 2006 308.24 1 July 2006 310.47 8 July 2006 320.43 15 July 2006 321.88 22 July 2006 320.67 29 July 2006 319.38 5 August 2006 314.30 12 August 2006 313.51 19 August 2006 316.36 26 August 2006 317.37 2 September 2006 316.81 9 September 2006 317.11 16 September 2006 318.47 23 September 2006 319.34 30 September 2006 317.34 7 October 2006 317.73 14 October 2006 313.07 21 October 2006 311.48 28 October 2006 316.42 4 November 2006 316.89 11 November 2006 318.12 18 November 2006 320.26 25 November 2006 323.85 2 December 2006 325.13 9 December 2006 324.59 16 December 2006 322.65 23 December 2006 316.21 30 December 2006 319.53 6 January 2007 322.82 13 January 2007 317.82 20 January 2007 322.64 27 January 2007 315.60 3 February 2007 312.01 10 February 2007 321.42 17 February 2007 318.05 24 February 2007 320.58 3 March 2007 323.87 10 March 2007 317.64 17 March 2007 313.87 24 March 2007 309.88 31 March 2007 307.00 7 April 2007 313.35 14 April 2007 318.46 21 April 2007 323.61 28 April 2007 322.57 5 May 2007 314.67 12 May 2007 307.89 19 May 2007 305.58 26 May 2007 307.74 2 June 2007 311.79 9 June 2007 315.28 16 June 2007 318.39 23 June 2007 319.60 30 June 2007 320.97 7 July 2007 321.50 14 July 2007 318.75 21 July 2007 317.10 28 July 2007 313.26 4 August 2007 312.65 11 August 2007 314.01 18 August 2007 317.99 25 August 2007 324.60 1 September 2007 325.52 8 September 2007 326.05 15 September 2007 323.32 22 September 2007 315.69 29 September 2007 315.66 6 October 2007 313.96 13 October 2007 319.25 20 October 2007 327.26 27 October 2007 330.06 3 November 2007 332.59 10 November 2007 330.91 17 November 2007 329.21 24 November 2007 332.78 1 December 2007 335.98 8 December 2007 334.99 15 December 2007 338.77 22 December 2007 339.10 29 December 2007 341.52 5 January 2008 344.29 12 January 2008 336.71 19 January 2008 329.83 26 January 2008 334.34 2 February 2008 336.64 9 February 2008 341.82 16 February 2008 347.66 23 February 2008 343.75 1 March 2008 342.91 8 March 2008 346.23 15 March 2008 352.65 22 March 2008 356.53 29 March 2008 367.84 5 April 2008 370.33 12 April 2008 370.92 19 April 2008 367.36 26 April 2008 364.50 3 May 2008 368.01 10 May 2008 369.39 17 May 2008 374.60 24 May 2008 374.60 31 May 2008 374.26 7 June 2008 377.46 14 June 2008 381.43 21 June 2008 385.02 28 June 2008 393.71 5 July 2008 388.64 12 July 2008 387.84 19 July 2008 392.93 26 July 2008 402.17 2 August 2008 422.88 9 August 2008 436.33 16 August 2008 442.74 23 August 2008 440.50 30 August 2008 440.44 6 September 2008 442.15 13 September 2008 447.30 20 September 2008 460.41 27 September 2008 470.39 4 October 2008 478.07 11 October 2008 480.50 18 October 2008 478.85 25 October 2008 477.66 1 November 2008 480.13 8 November 2008 490.17 15 November 2008 503.78 22 November 2008 512.39 29 November 2008 519.72 6 December 2008 530.53 13 December 2008 535.10 20 December 2008 546.26 27 December 2008 544.02 3 January 2009 527.94 10 January 2009 523.68 17 January 2009 526.29 24 January 2009 546.77 31 January 2009 580.89 7 February 2009 601.51 14 February 2009 615.62 21 February 2009 632.16 28 February 2009 636.78 7 March 2009 646.84 14 March 2009 649.93 21 March 2009 650.15 28 March 2009 658.03 4 April 2009 658.70 11 April 2009 651.03 18 April 2009 647.99 25 April 2009 638.20 2 May 2009 624.39 9 May 2009 631.91 16 May 2009 629.78 23 May 2009 627.32 30 May 2009 632.53 6 June 2009 623.08 13 June 2009 617.06 20 June 2009 618.17 27 June 2009 616.12 4 July 2009 606.95 11 July 2009 584.98 18 July 2009 567.27 25 July 2009 560.14 1 August 2009 556.55 8 August 2009 565.73 15 August 2009 571.16 22 August 2009 567.59 29 August 2009 572.99 5 September 2009 571.97 12 September 2009 564.27 19 September 2009 554.05 26 September 2009 548.47 3 October 2009 540.25 10 October 2009 532.88 17 October 2009 532.25 24 October 2009 526.90 31 October 2009 524.42 7 November 2009 520.51 14 November 2009 512.93 21 November 2009 495.59 28 November 2009 480.53 5 December 2009 473.11 12 December 2009 467.93 19 December 2009 465.82 26 December 2009 460.24 2 January 2010 449.90 9 January 2010 441.32 16 January 2010 448.23 Note: Vertical shading represents NBER recession dates: January 1980July 1980, July 1981November 1982, July 1990March 1991, and March 2001November 2001. A vertical line indicates the NBER peak in December 2007. Fourweek moving average. Range for unchanged employment is approximately 350 to 450 thousand. Bottomleft panel Workweek and Temporary Employment Period Workweek Temp. help employment (Hours*) (Millions) January 1990 34.37 1.16 February 1990 34.33 1.16 March 1990 34.37 1.17 April 1990 34.33 1.16 May 1990 34.33 1.16 June 1990 34.33 1.16 July 1990 34.33 1.16 August 1990 34.30 1.16 September 1990 34.23 1.16 October 1990 34.17 1.14 November 1990 34.17 1.14 December 1990 34.17 1.13 January 1991 34.17 1.14 February 1991 34.13 1.13 March 1991 34.07 1.12 April 1991 34.03 1.11 May 1991 34.00 1.11 June 1991 34.03 1.11 July 1991 34.07 1.11 August 1991 34.10 1.12 September 1991 34.10 1.13 October 1991 34.13 1.13 November 1991 34.13 1.13 December 1991 34.13 1.14 January 1992 34.10 1.15 February 1992 34.10 1.16 March 1992 34.10 1.17 April 1992 34.17 1.18 May 1992 34.20 1.20 June 1992 34.20 1.21 July 1992 34.17 1.21 August 1992 34.17 1.22 September 1992 34.23 1.23 October 1992 34.23 1.25 November 1992 34.23 1.26 December 1992 34.20 1.29 January 1993 34.23 1.30 February 1993 34.27 1.30 March 1993 34.23 1.32 April 1993 34.27 1.34 May 1993 34.27 1.36 June 1993 34.33 1.38 July 1993 34.33 1.40 August 1993 34.33 1.41 September 1993 34.37 1.43 October 1993 34.37 1.46 November 1993 34.40 1.47 December 1993 34.40 1.48 January 1994 34.40 1.50 February 1994 34.33 1.53 March 1994 34.37 1.57 April 1994 34.40 1.59 May 1994 34.50 1.60 June 1994 34.50 1.63 July 1994 34.53 1.65 August 1994 34.53 1.66 September 1994 34.50 1.69 October 1994 34.47 1.70 November 1994 34.47 1.72 December 1994 34.50 1.72 January 1995 34.50 1.74 February 1995 34.47 1.74 March 1995 34.43 1.74 April 1995 34.37 1.73 May 1995 34.30 1.72 June 1995 34.27 1.72 July 1995 34.27 1.72 August 1995 34.30 1.74 September 1995 34.30 1.78 October 1995 34.30 1.77 November 1995 34.30 1.77 December 1995 34.27 1.78 January 1996 34.10 1.75 February 1996 34.10 1.79 March 1996 34.13 1.79 April 1996 34.27 1.81 May 1996 34.27 1.83 June 1996 34.30 1.85 July 1996 34.33 1.87 August 1996 34.37 1.88 September 1996 34.37 1.89 October 1996 34.40 1.88 November 1996 34.40 1.91 December 1996 34.40 1.93 January 1997 34.37 1.95 February 1997 34.40 1.97 March 1997 34.43 2.00 April 1997 34.53 2.03 May 1997 34.57 2.05 June 1997 34.53 2.06 July 1997 34.50 2.08 August 1997 34.50 2.07 September 1997 34.57 2.08 October 1997 34.57 2.11 November 1997 34.57 2.14 December 1997 34.57 2.17 January 1998 34.60 2.18 February 1998 34.60 2.19 March 1998 34.57 2.19 April 1998 34.53 2.20 May 1998 34.50 2.22 June 1998 34.47 2.25 July 1998 34.47 2.25 August 1998 34.47 2.27 September 1998 34.47 2.24 October 1998 34.47 2.28 November 1998 34.47 2.31 December 1998 34.50 2.33 January 1999 34.47 2.36 February 1999 34.43 2.39 March 1999 34.37 2.40 April 1999 34.37 2.42 May 1999 34.37 2.44 June 1999 34.40 2.45 July 1999 34.40 2.48 August 1999 34.40 2.48 September 1999 34.40 2.47 October 1999 34.40 2.55 November 1999 34.40 2.57 December 1999 34.40 2.61 January 2000 34.40 2.62 February 2000 34.40 2.62 March 2000 34.37 2.64 April 2000 34.37 2.68 May 2000 34.33 2.65 June 2000 34.33 2.65 July 2000 34.30 2.65 August 2000 34.27 2.64 September 2000 34.23 2.65 October 2000 34.23 2.63 November 2000 34.23 2.64 December 2000 34.17 2.59 January 2001 34.13 2.56 February 2001 34.07 2.53 March 2001 34.10 2.48 April 2001 34.03 2.40 May 2001 34.03 2.38 June 2001 34.00 2.34 July 2001 34.00 2.32 August 2001 33.97 2.30 September 2001 33.90 2.25 October 2001 33.80 2.21 November 2001 33.77 2.16 December 2001 33.80 2.14 January 2002 33.83 2.15 February 2002 33.83 2.16 March 2002 33.83 2.19 April 2002 33.87 2.21 May 2002 33.90 2.22 June 2002 33.90 2.22 July 2002 33.87 2.20 August 2002 33.87 2.23 September 2002 33.87 2.20 October 2002 33.87 2.20 November 2002 33.83 2.18 December 2002 33.80 2.17 January 2003 33.80 2.19 February 2003 33.73 2.18 March 2003 33.73 2.17 April 2003 33.67 2.14 May 2003 33.70 2.18 June 2003 33.63 2.21 July 2003 33.63 2.26 August 2003 33.63 2.25 September 2003 33.63 2.26 October 2003 33.67 2.27 November 2003 33.67 2.28 December 2003 33.67 2.30 January 2004 33.67 2.29 February 2004 33.70 2.30 March 2004 33.73 2.31 April 2004 33.73 2.35 May 2004 33.73 2.38 June 2004 33.70 2.38 July 2004 33.70 2.39 August 2004 33.67 2.41 September 2004 33.70 2.42 October 2004 33.70 2.47 November 2004 33.70 2.46 December 2004 33.73 2.45 January 2005 33.73 2.46 February 2005 33.73 2.48 March 2005 33.70 2.49 April 2005 33.73 2.50 May 2005 33.73 2.50 June 2005 33.73 2.53 July 2005 33.70 2.54 August 2005 33.70 2.56 September 2005 33.73 2.59 October 2005 33.77 2.60 November 2005 33.80 2.63 December 2005 33.80 2.65 January 2006 33.83 2.63 February 2006 33.83 2.64 March 2006 33.83 2.64 April 2006 33.83 2.64 May 2006 33.83 2.65 June 2006 33.87 2.65 July 2006 33.87 2.64 August 2006 33.90 2.65 September 2006 33.87 2.63 October 2006 33.87 2.63 November 2006 33.87 2.63 December 2006 33.93 2.67 January 2007 33.90 2.66 February 2007 33.87 2.65 March 2007 33.83 2.65 April 2007 33.83 2.63 May 2007 33.87 2.61 June 2007 33.87 2.60 July 2007 33.87 2.58 August 2007 33.83 2.56 September 2007 33.80 2.53 October 2007 33.80 2.57 November 2007 33.80 2.57 December 2007 33.80 2.58 January 2008 33.77 2.56 February 2008 33.77 2.52 March 2008 33.77 2.49 April 2008 33.80 2.46 May 2008 33.77 2.43 June 2008 33.70 2.38 July 2008 33.63 2.35 August 2008 33.63 2.30 September 2008 33.63 2.26 October 2008 33.60 2.22 November 2008 33.50 2.13 December 2008 33.40 2.06 January 2009 33.33 1.97 February 2009 33.30 1.89 March 2009 33.23 1.84 April 2009 33.17 1.78 May 2009 33.10 1.78 June 2009 33.07 1.75 July 2009 33.07 1.75 August 2009 33.07 1.75 September 2009 33.10 1.77 October 2009 33.07 1.81 November 2009 33.10 1.87 December 2009 33.13 1.91 January 2010 33.21 ND February 2010 33.23 ND March 2010 33.25 ND Note: Vertical lines [in early 1992, and mid2003] show troughs in private employment. * Threemonth moving average. Return to table Bottomright panel Help Wanted Index, 1980 = 100 Period Index January 1978 88.00 February 1978 89.00 March 1978 91.00 April 1978 97.00 May 1978 96.00 June 1978 97.00 July 1978 96.00 August 1978 98.00 September 1978 99.00 October 1978 103.00 November 1978 102.00 December 1978 103.00 January 1979 102.00 February 1979 100.00 March 1979 100.00 April 1979 104.00 May 1979 103.00 June 1979 101.00 July 1979 101.00 August 1979 102.00 September 1979 105.00 October 1979 106.00 November 1979 100.00 December 1979 99.00 January 1980 97.00 February 1980 94.00 March 1980 93.00 April 1980 82.00 May 1980 76.00 June 1980 77.00 July 1980 77.00 August 1980 78.00 September 1980 81.00 October 1980 81.00 November 1980 84.00 December 1980 81.00 January 1981 80.00 February 1981 81.00 March 1981 81.00 April 1981 81.00 May 1981 80.00 June 1981 80.00 July 1981 80.00 August 1981 79.00 September 1981 75.00 October 1981 71.00 November 1981 70.00 December 1981 67.00 January 1982 67.00 February 1982 64.00 March 1982 62.00 April 1982 60.00 May 1982 59.00 June 1982 56.00 July 1982 53.00 August 1982 52.00 September 1982 49.00 October 1982 49.00 November 1982 50.00 December 1982 51.00 January 1983 52.00 February 1983 52.00 March 1983 54.00 April 1983 55.00 May 1983 60.00 June 1983 60.00 July 1983 64.00 August 1983 65.00 September 1983 67.00 October 1983 72.00 November 1983 73.00 December 1983 76.00 January 1984 78.00 February 1984 81.00 March 1984 81.00 April 1984 85.00 May 1984 86.00 June 1984 87.00 July 1984 89.00 August 1984 86.00 September 1984 88.00 October 1984 89.00 November 1984 88.00 December 1984 91.00 January 1985 89.00 February 1985 90.00 March 1985 92.00 April 1985 91.00 May 1985 92.00 June 1985 92.00 July 1985 91.00 August 1985 92.00 September 1985 93.00 October 1985 92.00 November 1985 93.00 December 1985 90.00 January 1986 91.00 February 1986 91.00 March 1986 91.00 April 1986 91.00 May 1986 90.00 June 1986 92.00 July 1986 91.00 August 1986 92.00 September 1986 93.00 October 1986 93.00 November 1986 97.00 December 1986 92.00 January 1987 91.00 February 1987 95.00 March 1987 99.00 April 1987 97.00 May 1987 99.00 June 1987 100.00 July 1987 100.00 August 1987 104.00 September 1987 103.00 October 1987 104.00 November 1987 106.00 December 1987 101.00 January 1988 102.00 February 1988 102.00 March 1988 104.00 April 1988 102.00 May 1988 105.00 June 1988 102.00 July 1988 104.00 August 1988 104.00 September 1988 100.00 October 1988 104.00 November 1988 102.00 December 1988 104.00 January 1989 104.00 February 1989 103.00 March 1989 99.00 April 1989 103.00 May 1989 98.00 June 1989 96.00 July 1989 96.00 August 1989 95.00 September 1989 95.00 October 1989 97.00 November 1989 94.00 December 1989 96.00 January 1990 97.00 February 1990 92.00 March 1990 90.00 April 1990 90.00 May 1990 86.00 June 1990 86.00 July 1990 85.00 August 1990 82.00 September 1990 81.00 October 1990 75.00 November 1990 71.00 December 1990 71.00 January 1991 67.00 February 1991 64.00 March 1991 63.00 April 1991 63.00 May 1991 61.00 June 1991 64.00 July 1991 61.00 August 1991 60.00 September 1991 62.00 October 1991 59.00 November 1991 60.00 December 1991 60.00 January 1992 59.00 February 1992 61.00 March 1992 64.00 April 1992 61.00 May 1992 63.00 June 1992 63.00 July 1992 61.00 August 1992 63.00 September 1992 62.00 October 1992 62.00 November 1992 66.00 December 1992 65.00 January 1993 66.00 February 1993 67.00 March 1993 66.00 April 1993 65.00 May 1993 68.00 June 1993 67.00 July 1993 68.00 August 1993 71.00 September 1993 71.00 October 1993 74.00 November 1993 74.00 December 1993 75.00 January 1994 76.00 February 1994 79.00 March 1994 80.00 April 1994 80.00 May 1994 83.00 June 1994 81.00 July 1994 85.00 August 1994 82.00 September 1994 83.00 October 1994 88.00 November 1994 87.00 December 1994 90.00 January 1995 87.00 February 1995 87.18 March 1995 85.36 April 1995 86.55 May 1995 80.69 June 1995 81.88 July 1995 86.12 August 1995 85.30 September 1995 85.50 October 1995 86.73 November 1995 83.87 December 1995 91.25 January 1996 86.34 February 1996 84.50 March 1996 86.78 April 1996 84.93 May 1996 82.04 June 1996 89.56 July 1996 84.58 August 1996 84.82 September 1996 89.26 October 1996 85.30 November 1996 91.89 December 1996 91.11 January 1997 90.32 February 1997 93.80 March 1997 93.03 April 1997 92.25 May 1997 87.17 June 1997 95.02 July 1997 92.09 August 1997 93.49 September 1997 98.18 October 1997 96.34 November 1997 102.18 December 1997 95.94 January 1998 99.62 February 1998 102.22 March 1998 101.50 April 1998 101.90 May 1998 102.31 June 1998 100.46 July 1998 100.88 August 1998 102.45 September 1998 98.31 October 1998 97.59 November 1998 102.64 December 1998 100.79 January 1999 107.07 February 1999 108.74 March 1999 104.56 April 1999 103.89 May 1999 105.58 June 1999 101.34 July 1999 103.06 August 1999 103.59 September 1999 100.51 October 1999 104.70 November 1999 104.05 December 1999 105.86 January 2000 111.40 February 2000 113.29 March 2000 111.45 April 2000 112.11 May 2000 105.18 June 2000 103.28 July 2000 105.20 August 2000 99.42 September 2000 102.66 October 2000 102.02 November 2000 98.75 December 2000 103.39 January 2001 102.77 February 2001 96.77 March 2001 90.69 April 2001 88.62 May 2001 82.40 June 2001 78.86 July 2001 80.85 August 2001 74.45 September 2001 75.03 October 2001 65.63 November 2001 64.72 December 2001 68.15 January 2002 68.72 February 2002 69.29 March 2002 68.40 April 2002 70.49 May 2002 66.57 June 2002 71.74 July 2002 67.77 August 2002 63.73 September 2002 67.46 October 2002 63.34 November 2002 63.95 December 2002 62.95 January 2003 66.83 February 2003 67.50 March 2003 64.85 April 2003 62.15 May 2003 61.10 June 2003 65.17 July 2003 65.86 August 2003 64.82 September 2003 65.53 October 2003 64.46 November 2003 68.80 December 2003 69.58 January 2004 70.38 February 2004 74.94 March 2004 73.93 April 2004 72.89 May 2004 75.70 June 2004 74.66 July 2004 73.59 August 2004 74.50 September 2004 73.40 October 2004 76.39 November 2004 75.28 December 2004 80.50 January 2005 90.14 February 2005 89.16 March 2005 85.95 April 2005 87.11 May 2005 86.04 June 2005 87.88 July 2005 87.12 August 2005 87.27 September 2005 88.73 October 2005 88.45 November 2005 92.70 December 2005 92.40 January 2006 95.86 February 2006 98.06 March 2006 96.12 April 2006 94.15 May 2006 91.82 June 2006 92.54 July 2006 93.88 August 2006 92.82 September 2006 91.67 October 2006 94.84 November 2006 91.53 December 2006 101.72 January 2007 99.17 February 2007 98.51 March 2007 98.73 April 2007 100.94 May 2007 96.70 June 2007 95.19 July 2007 95.74 August 2007 92.63 September 2007 97.47 October 2007 94.04 November 2007 92.58 December 2007 93.10 January 2008 94.03 February 2008 93.58 March 2008 90.25 April 2008 87.70 May 2008 88.81 June 2008 87.11 July 2008 83.59 August 2008 80.26 September 2008 75.70 October 2008 73.32 November 2008 71.75 December 2008 65.55 January 2009 51.08 February 2009 55.36 March 2009 52.99 April 2009 49.56 May 2009 52.45 June 2009 51.92 July 2009 52.46 August 2009 57.53 September 2009 53.04 October 2009 52.18 November 2009 51.54 December 2009 58.08 Note: Vertical lines [at the end of 1982, in early 1992, and mid2003] show troughs in private employment. Threemonth moving average. Exhibit 7 Inflation Topleft panel Unemployment and NAIRU Percent Period Unemployment rate NAIRU NAIRU+EEB effects Resource slack (approximate) [unemployment rate minus (NAIRU+EEB effects)] 2002:Q1 5.70 5.00 5.01 0.69 2002:Q2 5.84 4.99 5.25 0.59 2002:Q3 5.73 4.98 5.20 0.53 2002:Q4 5.85 4.96 5.13 0.72 2003:Q1 5.87 4.92 5.07 0.80 2003:Q2 6.15 4.90 5.07 1.08 2003:Q3 6.10 4.88 5.06 1.04 2003:Q4 5.82 4.88 5.05 0.77 2004:Q1 5.68 4.88 4.96 0.72 2004:Q2 5.59 4.90 4.90 0.69 2004:Q3 5.43 4.87 4.87 0.56 2004:Q4 5.39 4.88 4.88 0.51 2005:Q1 5.28 4.86 4.86 0.42 2005:Q2 5.11 4.84 4.84 0.27 2005:Q3 4.97 4.86 4.86 0.11 2005:Q4 4.95 4.84 4.84 0.11 2006:Q1 4.72 4.83 4.83 0.11 2006:Q2 4.65 4.84 4.84 0.19 2006:Q3 4.64 4.83 4.83 0.19 2006:Q4 4.46 4.83 4.83 0.37 2007:Q1 4.51 4.84 4.84 0.33 2007:Q2 4.49 4.81 4.81 0.32 2007:Q3 4.66 4.79 4.79 0.13 2007:Q4 4.83 4.80 4.80 0.03 2008:Q1 4.95 4.79 4.79 0.16 2008:Q2 5.31 4.76 4.76 0.55 2008:Q3 6.03 4.82 5.05 0.98 2008:Q4 6.94 4.89 5.16 1.78 2009:Q1 8.20 5.07 5.54 2.66 2009:Q2 9.27 5.20 5.80 3.47 2009:Q3 9.66 5.22 5.96 3.70 2009:Q4 10.03 5.22 6.06 3.97 Forecast 2010:Q1 10.06 5.22 6.15 3.91 2010:Q2 9.89 5.22 6.15 3.74 2010:Q3 9.71 5.22 6.14 3.57 2010:Q4 9.53 5.22 6.15 3.38 2011:Q1 9.15 5.22 6.15 3.00 2011:Q2 8.88 5.22 6.15 2.73 2011:Q3 8.57 5.22 6.15 2.42 2011:Q4 8.23 5.22 6.15 2.08 Topright panel Longterm Inflation Expectations TIPS, fivetoten years ahead Period Percent 9 January 2002 2.73 16 January 2002 2.66 23 January 2002 2.61 30 January 2002 2.55 6 February 2002 2.51 13 February 2002 2.62 20 February 2002 2.59 27 February 2002 2.60 6 March 2002 2.68 13 March 2002 2.79 20 March 2002 2.87 27 March 2002 2.85 3 April 2002 2.90 10 April 2002 2.82 17 April 2002 2.80 24 April 2002 2.81 1 May 2002 2.70 8 May 2002 2.74 15 May 2002 2.86 22 May 2002 2.85 29 May 2002 2.81 5 June 2002 2.78 12 June 2002 2.74 19 June 2002 2.60 26 June 2002 2.58 3 July 2002 2.63 10 July 2002 2.56 17 July 2002 2.66 24 July 2002 2.76 31 July 2002 2.88 7 August 2002 2.91 14 August 2002 2.83 21 August 2002 2.88 28 August 2002 2.94 4 September 2002 2.80 11 September 2002 2.77 18 September 2002 2.68 25 September 2002 2.61 2 October 2002 2.57 9 October 2002 2.54 16 October 2002 2.65 23 October 2002 2.81 30 October 2002 2.82 6 November 2002 2.87 13 November 2002 2.65 20 November 2002 2.73 27 November 2002 2.84 4 December 2002 2.92 11 December 2002 2.76 18 December 2002 2.77 25 December 2002 2.74 1 January 2003 2.64 8 January 2003 2.71 15 January 2003 2.88 22 January 2003 2.83 29 January 2003 2.83 5 February 2003 2.79 12 February 2003 2.83 19 February 2003 2.83 26 February 2003 2.77 5 March 2003 2.67 12 March 2003 2.64 19 March 2003 2.61 26 March 2003 2.58 2 April 2003 2.60 9 April 2003 2.59 16 April 2003 2.53 23 April 2003 2.49 30 April 2003 2.51 7 May 2003 2.53 14 May 2003 2.50 21 May 2003 2.45 28 May 2003 2.44 4 June 2003 2.45 11 June 2003 2.40 18 June 2003 2.34 25 June 2003 2.35 2 July 2003 2.37 9 July 2003 2.39 16 July 2003 2.71 23 July 2003 2.85 30 July 2003 3.02 6 August 2003 3.11 13 August 2003 2.98 20 August 2003 3.16 27 August 2003 3.09 3 September 2003 3.05 10 September 2003 3.04 17 September 2003 2.95 24 September 2003 2.87 1 October 2003 2.80 8 October 2003 2.90 15 October 2003 3.03 22 October 2003 3.08 29 October 2003 3.19 5 November 2003 3.28 12 November 2003 3.31 19 November 2003 3.25 26 November 2003 3.12 3 December 2003 3.21 10 December 2003 3.16 17 December 2003 3.04 24 December 2003 2.96 31 December 2003 3.03 7 January 2004 3.06 14 January 2004 2.94 21 January 2004 2.83 28 January 2004 2.89 4 February 2004 2.91 11 February 2004 2.88 18 February 2004 2.84 25 February 2004 2.79 3 March 2004 2.91 10 March 2004 2.88 17 March 2004 2.81 24 March 2004 2.81 31 March 2004 2.94 7 April 2004 3.03 14 April 2004 3.06 21 April 2004 3.07 28 April 2004 2.97 5 May 2004 2.95 12 May 2004 3.12 19 May 2004 3.27 26 May 2004 3.29 2 June 2004 3.26 9 June 2004 3.22 16 June 2004 3.09 23 June 2004 3.03 30 June 2004 3.03 7 July 2004 3.07 14 July 2004 2.97 21 July 2004 2.92 28 July 2004 2.96 4 August 2004 2.97 11 August 2004 2.91 18 August 2004 2.92 25 August 2004 2.94 1 September 2004 2.89 8 September 2004 2.88 15 September 2004 2.85 22 September 2004 2.76 29 September 2004 2.71 6 October 2004 2.74 13 October 2004 2.80 20 October 2004 2.75 27 October 2004 2.65 3 November 2004 2.73 10 November 2004 2.78 17 November 2004 2.77 24 November 2004 2.79 1 December 2004 2.83 8 December 2004 2.82 15 December 2004 2.79 22 December 2004 2.88 29 December 2004 2.95 5 January 2005 2.82 12 January 2005 2.71 19 January 2005 2.69 26 January 2005 2.68 2 February 2005 2.66 9 February 2005 2.54 16 February 2005 2.57 23 February 2005 2.64 2 March 2005 2.70 9 March 2005 2.75 16 March 2005 2.80 23 March 2005 2.82 30 March 2005 2.77 6 April 2005 2.74 13 April 2005 2.72 20 April 2005 2.74 27 April 2005 2.67 4 May 2005 2.64 11 May 2005 2.65 18 May 2005 2.60 25 May 2005 2.54 1 June 2005 2.49 8 June 2005 2.46 15 June 2005 2.46 22 June 2005 2.44 29 June 2005 2.38 6 July 2005 2.38 13 July 2005 2.37 20 July 2005 2.38 27 July 2005 2.45 3 August 2005 2.47 10 August 2005 2.49 17 August 2005 2.47 24 August 2005 2.49 31 August 2005 2.46 7 September 2005 2.50 14 September 2005 2.51 21 September 2005 2.57 28 September 2005 2.59 5 October 2005 2.59 12 October 2005 2.52 19 October 2005 2.60 26 October 2005 2.60 2 November 2005 2.70 9 November 2005 2.76 16 November 2005 2.64 23 November 2005 2.58 30 November 2005 2.55 7 December 2005 2.56 14 December 2005 2.55 21 December 2005 2.53 28 December 2005 2.47 4 January 2006 2.46 11 January 2006 2.46 18 January 2006 2.51 25 January 2006 2.52 1 February 2006 2.58 8 February 2006 2.57 15 February 2006 2.57 22 February 2006 2.52 1 March 2006 2.52 8 March 2006 2.60 15 March 2006 2.60 22 March 2006 2.56 29 March 2006 2.56 5 April 2006 2.59 12 April 2006 2.62 19 April 2006 2.66 26 April 2006 2.72 3 May 2006 2.80 10 May 2006 2.75 17 May 2006 2.78 24 May 2006 2.71 31 May 2006 2.72 7 June 2006 2.68 14 June 2006 2.60 21 June 2006 2.65 28 June 2006 2.65 5 July 2006 2.67 12 July 2006 2.63 19 July 2006 2.63 26 July 2006 2.65 2 August 2006 2.68 9 August 2006 2.70 16 August 2006 2.71 23 August 2006 2.72 30 August 2006 2.71 6 September 2006 2.67 13 September 2006 2.65 20 September 2006 2.63 27 September 2006 2.57 4 October 2006 2.56 11 October 2006 2.57 18 October 2006 2.57 25 October 2006 2.61 1 November 2006 2.61 8 November 2006 2.63 15 November 2006 2.61 22 November 2006 2.54 29 November 2006 2.50 6 December 2006 2.54 13 December 2006 2.55 20 December 2006 2.50 27 December 2006 2.44 3 January 2007 2.47 10 January 2007 2.44 17 January 2007 2.44 24 January 2007 2.51 31 January 2007 2.55 7 February 2007 2.50 14 February 2007 2.48 21 February 2007 2.48 28 February 2007 2.49 7 March 2007 2.46 14 March 2007 2.44 21 March 2007 2.48 28 March 2007 2.55 4 April 2007 2.55 11 April 2007 2.58 18 April 2007 2.54 25 April 2007 2.51 2 May 2007 2.50 9 May 2007 2.46 16 May 2007 2.43 23 May 2007 2.45 30 May 2007 2.52 6 June 2007 2.55 13 June 2007 2.63 20 June 2007 2.64 27 June 2007 2.68 4 July 2007 2.62 11 July 2007 2.63 18 July 2007 2.62 25 July 2007 2.65 1 August 2007 2.68 8 August 2007 2.65 15 August 2007 2.68 22 August 2007 2.70 29 August 2007 2.69 5 September 2007 2.68 12 September 2007 2.69 19 September 2007 2.77 26 September 2007 2.80 3 October 2007 2.80 10 October 2007 2.79 17 October 2007 2.78 24 October 2007 2.74 31 October 2007 2.76 7 November 2007 2.78 14 November 2007 2.79 21 November 2007 2.76 28 November 2007 2.75 5 December 2007 2.73 12 December 2007 2.73 19 December 2007 2.73 26 December 2007 2.76 2 January 2008 2.71 9 January 2008 2.65 16 January 2008 2.75 23 January 2008 2.86 30 January 2008 2.97 6 February 2008 2.99 13 February 2008 2.99 20 February 2008 2.93 27 February 2008 2.93 5 March 2008 3.04 12 March 2008 3.18 19 March 2008 3.11 26 March 2008 2.99 2 April 2008 3.05 9 April 2008 2.98 16 April 2008 2.95 23 April 2008 2.87 30 April 2008 2.77 7 May 2008 2.81 14 May 2008 2.83 21 May 2008 2.84 28 May 2008 2.86 4 June 2008 2.88 11 June 2008 2.87 18 June 2008 2.79 25 June 2008 2.75 2 July 2008 2.78 9 July 2008 2.84 16 July 2008 2.79 23 July 2008 2.83 30 July 2008 2.87 6 August 2008 2.86 13 August 2008 2.79 20 August 2008 2.79 27 August 2008 2.80 3 September 2008 2.78 10 September 2008 2.73 17 September 2008 2.74 24 September 2008 2.88 1 October 2008 2.78 8 October 2008 2.64 15 October 2008 2.98 22 October 2008 3.39 29 October 2008 3.39 5 November 2008 3.43 12 November 2008 3.39 19 November 2008 2.92 26 November 2008 2.15 3 December 2008 2.62 10 December 2008 2.63 17 December 2008 2.50 24 December 2008 2.12 31 December 2008 2.08 7 January 2009 2.18 14 January 2009 2.50 21 January 2009 2.39 28 January 2009 2.67 4 February 2009 2.75 11 February 2009 2.73 18 February 2009 2.64 25 February 2009 2.62 4 March 2009 2.41 11 March 2009 2.27 18 March 2009 2.46 25 March 2009 2.46 1 April 2009 2.46 8 April 2009 2.40 15 April 2009 2.44 22 April 2009 2.40 29 April 2009 2.55 6 May 2009 2.52 13 May 2009 2.64 20 May 2009 2.75 27 May 2009 2.99 3 June 2009 3.09 10 June 2009 2.97 17 June 2009 2.77 24 June 2009 2.85 1 July 2009 2.87 8 July 2009 2.77 15 July 2009 2.78 22 July 2009 3.00 29 July 2009 3.05 5 August 2009 3.12 12 August 2009 3.26 19 August 2009 3.18 26 August 2009 3.15 2 September 2009 3.02 9 September 2009 3.04 16 September 2009 2.96 23 September 2009 2.94 30 September 2009 2.88 7 October 2009 2.79 14 October 2009 2.93 21 October 2009 3.04 28 October 2009 2.98 4 November 2009 3.01 11 November 2009 3.19 18 November 2009 3.17 25 November 2009 3.12 2 December 2009 3.04 9 December 2009 3.07 16 December 2009 3.11 23 December 2009 3.17 30 December 2009 3.20 6 January 2010 3.23 13 January 2010 3.24 20 January 2010 3.13 25 January 2010 3.06 Reuters/Michigan, next fivetoten years Period Percent January 2002 2.7 February 2002 2.8 March 2002 2.8 April 2002 2.8 May 2002 3.0 June 2002 2.8 July 2002 2.8 August 2002 2.9 September 2002 2.5 October 2002 2.8 November 2002 2.8 December 2002 2.8 January 2003 2.7 February 2003 2.7 March 2003 2.8 April 2003 2.7 May 2003 2.8 June 2003 2.7 July 2003 2.7 August 2003 2.7 September 2003 2.7 October 2003 2.8 November 2003 2.7 December 2003 2.8 January 2004 2.8 February 2004 2.9 March 2004 2.9 April 2004 2.7 May 2004 2.8 June 2004 2.9 July 2004 2.8 August 2004 2.7 September 2004 2.8 October 2004 2.8 November 2004 2.7 December 2004 2.8 January 2005 2.7 February 2005 2.8 March 2005 2.9 April 2005 3.0 May 2005 2.9 June 2005 2.8 July 2005 2.9 August 2005 2.8 September 2005 3.1 October 2005 3.2 November 2005 3.0 December 2005 3.1 January 2006 2.9 February 2006 2.9 March 2006 2.9 April 2006 3.1 May 2006 3.2 June 2006 2.9 July 2006 2.9 August 2006 3.2 September 2006 3.0 October 2006 3.1 November 2006 3.0 December 2006 3.0 January 2007 3.0 February 2007 2.9 March 2007 2.9 April 2007 3.1 May 2007 3.1 June 2007 2.9 July 2007 3.1 August 2007 2.9 September 2007 2.9 October 2007 2.8 November 2007 2.9 December 2007 3.1 January 2008 3.0 February 2008 3.0 March 2008 2.9 April 2008 3.2 May 2008 3.4 June 2008 3.4 July 2008 3.2 August 2008 3.2 September 2008 3.0 October 2008 2.9 November 2008 2.9 December 2008 2.6 January 2009 2.9 February 2009 3.1 March 2009 2.6 April 2009 2.8 May 2009 2.9 June 2009 3.0 July 2009 3.0 August 2009 2.8 September 2009 2.8 October 2009 2.9 November 2009 3.0 December 2009 2.7 January 2010p 2.8 SPF, next ten years Period Percent 2002:Q1 2.50 2002:Q2 2.50 2002:Q3 2.50 2002:Q4 2.45 2003:Q1 2.50 2003:Q2 2.50 2003:Q3 2.50 2003:Q4 2.50 2004:Q1 2.50 2004:Q2 2.50 2004:Q3 2.50 2004:Q4 2.50 2005:Q1 2.45 2005:Q2 2.50 2005:Q3 2.50 2005:Q4 2.50 2006:Q1 2.50 2006:Q2 2.50 2006:Q3 2.50 2006:Q4 2.50 2007:Q1 2.35 2007:Q2 2.40 2007:Q3 2.40 2007:Q4 2.40 2008:Q1 2.50 2008:Q2 2.50 2008:Q3 2.50 2008:Q4 2.50 2009:Q1 2.40 2009:Q2 2.50 2009:Q3 2.50 2009:Q4 2.26 Middleleft panel Compensation per Hour and Unit Labor Costs* Percent change, Q4/Q4 Period Compensation Unit labor costs 2007 3.60 0.70 2008 2.60 1.60 2009 2.48 2.45 2010 2.40 1.60 2011 2.25 1.16 Forecast * Nonfarm business sector. Return to text Middleright panel Core Nonfuel Import Prices Index, 2005 = 100 Period Current Dec. GB 2007:Q1 103.77 ND 2007:Q2 104.56 ND 2007:Q3 105.49 ND 2007:Q4 106.76 ND 2008:Q1 108.98 ND 2008:Q2 112.02 ND 2008:Q3 113.52 ND 2008:Q4 110.84 ND 2009:Q1 108.13 ND 2009:Q2 107.51 107.51 2009:Q3 107.85 107.84 2009:Q4 109.35 109.28 2010:Q1 110.56 110.23 2010:Q2 111.18 110.69 2010:Q3 111.58 111.03 2010:Q4 111.92 111.33 2011:Q1 112.21 111.62 2011:Q2 112.50 111.91 2011:Q3 112.79 112.19 2011:Q4 113.08 112.47 Forecast Bottom panel PCE Price Projections Percent change, Q4/Q4 Period Core PCE PCE price index 2008 2.04 1.73 2009 1.48 1.32 2010 1.16 1.44 2011 1.05 1.13 Forecast Exhibit 8 Foreign Growth Outlook Topleft panel Real GDP and Consumer Prices* Percent change, annual rate 2010p 2009 Q3 1. Total Foreign GDP 2011p Q4e 4.4 2.7 3.6 4.1 June Greenbook 1.5 1.8 3.1 n.a. Emerging Market Economies 9.2 3.6 4.9 5.2 2. 3. China 10.8 10.1 8.6 8.8 4. Other Emerging Asia 10.0 1.8 5.0 5.0 5. Mexico 12.2 2.5 3.8 4.6 6. Brazil 5.1 6.0 4.9 4.0 7. Advanced Foreign Economies 0.8 2.0 2.6 3.2 8. Japan 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 9. Euro Area 1.7 1.0 2.1 2.7 10. United Kingdom 0.6 0.4 2.5 3.1 11. Canada 0.4 3.2 3.2 3.8 12. Total Foreign CPI 1.5 3.2 2.2 2.0 * GDP aggregates weighted by U.S. goods exports; CPI by U.S. nonoil goods imports. Updated since January Greenbook. Return to text Topright panel Commodity Prices Period Oil import price Nonfuel index* (Dollars per barrel) January 2008 91.88 100.00 February 2008 93.48 106.48 March 2008 96.57 110.31 April 2008 98.37 109.67 May 2008 104.05 108.20 June 2008 113.23 109.08 July 2008 115.12 109.68 August 2008 110.50 103.15 September 2008 103.15 97.78 October 2008 91.35 82.99 November 2008 67.30 76.26 December 2008 51.89 70.00 January 2009 44.02 70.90 February 2009 44.66 69.10 March 2009 45.23 68.69 April 2009 47.44 72.25 May 2009 50.48 76.21 June 2009 58.07 79.16 July 2009 58.42 79.84 August 2009 61.96 84.63 September 2009 66.51 83.62 October 2009 68.55 84.83 November 2009 75.95 88.16 December 2009 74.32 91.66 January 2010 76.89 93.21 February 2010 76.38 92.99 March 2010 76.38 93.20 April 2010 76.38 93.41 May 2010 76.66 93.58 June 2010 77.10 93.66 July 2010 77.52 93.76 August 2010 77.88 93.77 September 2010 78.22 93.72 October 2010 78.56 93.75 November 2010 79.07 93.78 December 2010 79.59 93.89 January 2011 79.94 94.00 February 2011 80.24 94.10 March 2011 80.54 94.21 April 2011 80.84 94.25 May 2011 81.07 94.28 June 2011 81.28 94.33 July 2011 81.48 94.38 August 2011 81.69 94.44 September 2011 81.91 94.49 Forecast October 2011 82.13 94.53 November 2011 82.38 94.58 December 2011 82.64 94.64 * Jan 2008 = 100. Return to table Middleleft panel China Index, June 2007 = 100 Period Exports Industrial production June 2007 100.00 100.00 July 2007 101.32 101.10 August 2007 100.62 102.42 September 2007 103.06 103.62 October 2007 103.33 104.98 November 2007 109.52 106.85 December 2007 112.75 109.35 January 2008 116.10 108.67 February 2008 114.00 108.93 March 2008 113.04 112.13 April 2008 120.02 113.98 May 2008 122.25 114.49 June 2008 121.42 115.78 July 2008 124.72 115.71 August 2008 125.10 116.00 September 2008 129.09 117.75 October 2008 120.09 113.17 November 2008 110.71 112.89 December 2008 102.48 114.07 January 2009 103.64 119.61 February 2009 77.06 118.97 March 2009 94.25 121.23 April 2009 91.77 122.29 May 2009 90.69 124.12 June 2009 94.25 127.55 July 2009 97.15 128.80 August 2009 95.74 130.75 September 2009 106.84 132.41 October 2009 104.96 132.51 November 2009 109.04 135.05 December 2009 122.05 136.34 Middlecenter panel Emerging Asia ex. China* Index, June 2007 = 100 Period Exports Industrial production June 2007 100.00 100.00 July 2007 99.84 105.71 100.94 104.04 98.77 101.90 October 2007 108.99 104.92 November 2007 109.24 105.22 December 2007 109.44 105.97 January 2008 116.34 108.44 February 2008 114.28 108.27 March 2008 113.87 108.62 April 2008 124.17 106.60 May 2008 124.25 105.42 June 2008 120.66 105.64 July 2008 131.06 105.43 August 2008 120.53 104.31 September 2008 114.89 104.32 October 2008 109.26 100.24 November 2008 89.64 96.06 December 2008 85.81 90.14 January 2009 76.40 89.43 February 2009 85.97 93.73 March 2009 83.31 93.37 April 2009 88.60 99.25 May 2009 84.92 99.95 June 2009 92.30 102.43 July 2009 98.42 106.99 August 2009 94.48 105.82 September 2009 99.28 107.02 October 2009 103.22 105.96 November 2009 103.94 106.55 August 2007 September 2007 * Also excludes Hong Kong and Philippines due to data availability. Return to text Middleright panel Latin America Index, June 2007 = 100 Period Brazilian IP Mexican IP June 2007 100.00 100.00 July 2007 99.90 100.26 August 2007 101.61 99.74 September 2007 100.53 100.26 October 2007 104.84 100.00 November 2007 102.74 99.05 December 2007 102.13 100.52 January 2008 103.78 100.95 February 2008 103.67 101.04 March 2008 104.41 100.95 April 2008 104.85 100.17 May 2008 103.58 100.35 June 2008 107.26 100.00 July 2008 107.49 99.14 August 2008 106.00 99.14 September 2008 107.70 97.41 October 2008 104.70 97.50 November 2008 97.49 95.17 December 2008 85.12 93.27 January 2009 87.88 90.77 February 2009 89.98 91.63 March 2009 91.12 90.42 April 2009 92.26 91.63 May 2009 93.66 89.91 June 2009 94.17 89.30 July 2009 96.46 92.49 August 2009 97.66 91.29 September 2009 99.36 91.72 October 2009 101.62 92.58 November 2009 101.37 93.53 Bottomleft panel Japan Index, June 2007 = 100 Period Real exports Household spending June 2007 100.00 100.00 July 2007 100.42 96.48 August 2007 105.99 99.70 September 2007 103.49 99.40 October 2007 104.83 99.50 November 2007 105.49 98.79 December 2007 105.99 101.21 January 2008 109.65 101.61 February 2008 105.82 98.09 March 2008 109.40 96.98 April 2008 104.66 96.78 May 2008 106.82 98.09 June 2008 106.16 96.18 July 2008 107.40 97.39 August 2008 106.82 95.88 September 2008 106.57 96.38 October 2008 104.08 96.28 November 2008 89.35 97.69 December 2008 80.87 96.78 January 2009 66.64 95.98 February 2009 64.31 96.28 March 2009 64.23 96.08 April 2009 69.13 95.18 May 2009 72.71 97.29 June 2009 77.04 96.98 July 2009 78.95 95.68 August 2009 79.95 97.49 September 2009 84.36 97.59 October 2009 87.10 98.29 November 2009 87.69 98.39 Bottomright panel Euro Area Index, June 2007 = 100 Period Retail sales Industrial production June 2007 100.00 100.00 July 2007 100.22 100.68 August 2007 100.16 100.89 September 2007 100.15 100.43 October 2007 100.01 100.95 November 2007 99.75 101.09 December 2007 99.63 100.67 January 2008 100.40 101.93 February 2008 100.29 101.94 March 2008 99.44 101.91 April 2008 99.20 102.20 May 2008 99.83 100.48 June 2008 99.03 99.76 July 2008 98.83 99.56 August 2008 98.66 99.23 September 2008 99.03 98.89 October 2008 97.80 94.04 November 2008 98.65 92.48 December 2008 97.92 86.95 January 2009 97.67 86.07 February 2009 97.12 82.20 March 2009 97.03 81.98 April 2009 97.20 81.60 May 2009 96.72 82.48 June 2009 96.77 83.29 July 2009 96.77 83.65 August 2009 96.57 84.62 September 2009 96.14 84.85 October 2009 96.41 84.63 November 2009 95.30 85.58 Exhibit 9 Advanced Foreign Economies (AFEs) Top panel Projected Private Final Demand Growth Percent Period 2009:H2 Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada 1.04 0.40 0.91 3.68 2010 0.96 1.22 1.64 3.59 2011 2.59 1.62 2.93 3.78 [Data for 2010 and 2011 are approximate.] Middleleft panel Gross Debt to GDP Percent Period Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada 2001 73.74 143.68 40.39 82.66 2002 74.06 152.28 40.83 80.55 2003 74.99 157.98 41.16 76.56 2004 75.79 165.54 43.46 72.60 2005 76.82 175.27 46.09 71.61 2006 74.43 172.15 45.85 69.46 2007 70.94 167.10 46.95 64.98 2008 73.20 172.10 52.40 69.70 2009 78.20 189.30 67.70 82.80 2010 82.40 195.90 76.40 84.30 2011 85.20 202.10 81.60 84.40 Forecast Sources: OECD, staff forecast. Middlecenter panel 10Yr. Govt. Yield Spreads* Basis points Period Spain Portugal Italy Greece Ireland 5 October 2009 62.8 66.8 92.4 130.4 167.2 6 October 2009 62.2 63.8 90.4 131.0 161.4 7 October 2009 62.4 64.6 90.0 131.8 158.0 8 October 2009 61.2 64.5 88.7 130.1 155.7 9 October 2009 59.1 62.3 85.8 126.1 153.9 12 October 2009 59.6 62.8 87.1 127.1 154.1 13 October 2009 63.4 65.7 91.4 131.5 157.0 14 October 2009 61.5 63.1 90.1 130.5 156.0 15 October 2009 60.5 62.4 90.5 132.4 154.0 16 October 2009 58.6 60.3 88.4 136.9 153.4 19 October 2009 56.6 59.4 85.7 135.3 153.6 20 October 2009 56.8 58.8 85.5 134.6 151.3 21 October 2009 53.7 53.2 83.8 131.2 146.3 22 October 2009 52.9 53.2 83.8 131.3 146.9 23 October 2009 52.5 54.5 84.2 134.2 147.2 26 October 2009 51.3 54.1 82.7 133.5 144.9 27 October 2009 53.1 55.2 82.7 136.9 145.6 28 October 2009 52.9 54.2 82.4 136.3 145.9 29 October 2009 54.6 54.6 82.3 138.2 145.3 30 October 2009 55.7 56.2 84.3 142.3 146.8 2 November 2009 54.7 53.1 82.6 139.5 147.1 3 November 2009 55.3 51.7 82.0 139.1 145.5 4 November 2009 53.8 49.8 79.3 138.2 143.9 5 November 2009 53.5 49.0 77.6 137.6 140.9 6 November 2009 53.1 49.9 76.8 138.2 140.3 9 November 2009 53.2 49.6 76.8 137.5 140.1 10 November 2009 53.0 49.5 76.2 138.7 142.8 11 November 2009 46.4 42.1 69.4 132.2 136.7 12 November 2009 46.4 42.0 69.0 132.0 136.2 13 November 2009 49.2 43.6 71.7 140.0 139.9 16 November 2009 52.5 48.1 74.7 153.9 148.3 17 November 2009 50.3 47.6 74.0 147.7 139.8 18 November 2009 52.3 49.0 75.1 156.0 142.9 19 November 2009 55.3 53.0 78.9 169.7 149.2 20 November 2009 57.2 55.3 80.7 172.3 153.2 23 November 2009 56.6 54.0 78.8 166.2 149.8 24 November 2009 56.3 53.6 79.3 173.6 152.0 25 November 2009 55.6 54.5 79.5 179.4 155.3 26 November 2009 59.5 62.0 88.8 201.6 168.5 27 November 2009 60.8 62.3 87.1 194.2 170.6 30 November 2009 58.8 59.5 85.8 183.6 168.5 1 December 2009 58.1 57.5 83.5 172.9 164.4 2 December 2009 58.3 56.9 82.0 168.7 162.8 3 December 2009 57.3 56.0 81.1 171.3 160.9 4 December 2009 54.3 52.8 76.1 176.5 159.8 7 December 2009 55.9 58.0 76.7 195.2 163.5 8 December 2009 60.7 65.5 82.8 221.0 170.5 9 December 2009 69.5 77.4 87.5 246.8 189.7 10 December 2009 68.6 74.4 85.4 227.0 178.5 11 December 2009 62.6 68.8 81.9 208.4 165.9 14 December 2009 61.2 67.4 82.3 228.8 164.2 15 December 2009 61.1 67.8 79.9 249.8 162.4 16 December 2009 59.1 66.6 79.9 231.8 153.7 17 December 2009 64.6 71.7 82.5 253.2 158.7 18 December 2009 70.5 78.6 84.0 265.9 160.5 21 December 2009 73.7 81.5 84.4 276.9 159.1 22 December 2009 65.9 72.8 76.3 248.3 151.8 23 December 2009 63.3 69.5 72.7 242.3 147.7 24 December 2009 62.1 68.6 72.6 241.7 147.7 25 December 2009 62.6 69.4 73.1 242.4 148.2 28 December 2009 60.6 68.8 71.2 238.0 147.4 29 December 2009 58.7 67.5 73.5 236.6 146.2 30 December 2009 58.8 68.8 75.4 238.7 144.7 31 December 2009 59.1 68.2 75.5 238.7 145.2 1 January 2010 59.1 69.0 75.5 238.7 145.1 4 January 2010 57.9 67.3 71.7 233.1 138.0 5 January 2010 59.2 67.6 72.8 227.9 141.8 6 January 2010 62.2 69.1 73.9 227.1 151.2 7 January 2010 61.3 67.3 72.4 227.3 144.8 8 January 2010 57.0 61.2 69.3 220.0 140.2 11 January 2010 61.6 65.8 71.0 217.5 140.6 12 January 2010 63.5 69.4 74.2 234.5 144.2 13 January 2010 65.9 76.4 78.6 257.7 151.5 14 January 2010 69.8 88.6 80.6 277.6 157.4 15 January 2010 70.4 92.9 81.1 273.4 156.7 18 January 2010 72.5 94.3 81.2 268.1 156.9 19 January 2010 73.1 92.3 78.6 264.3 147.4 20 January 2010 79.6 104.4 85.2 293.8 161.3 21 January 2010 80.2 104.4 86.8 288.1 156.7 22 January 2010 81.5 109.2 86.3 304.8 159.5 25 January 2010 74.0 98.0 82.9 297.7 149.7 26 January 2010 82.9 93.5 82.5 301.5 149.5 * Relative to Germany. Return to text Middleright panel Policy Rates Percent Period Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada 2 January 2007 3.50 ND 5.00 4.25 4 January 2007 3.50 0.25 5.00 4.25 11 January 2007 3.50 0.25 5.25 4.25 21 February 2007 3.50 0.50 5.25 4.25 8 March 2007 3.75 0.50 5.25 4.25 10 May 2007 3.75 0.50 5.50 4.25 6 June 2007 4.00 0.50 5.50 4.25 5 July 2007 4.00 0.50 5.75 4.25 10 July 2007 4.00 0.50 5.75 4.50 4 December 2007 4.00 0.50 5.75 4.25 6 December 2007 4.00 0.50 5.50 4.25 22 January 2008 4.00 0.50 5.50 4.00 7 February 2008 4.00 0.50 5.25 4.00 4 March 2008 4.00 0.50 5.25 3.50 10 April 2008 4.00 0.50 5.00 3.50 22 April 2008 4.00 0.50 5.00 3.00 3 July 2008 4.25 0.50 5.00 3.00 8 October 2008 3.75 0.50 4.50 2.50 21 October 2008 3.75 0.50 4.50 2.25 31 October 2008 3.75 0.30 4.50 2.25 6 November 2008 3.25 0.30 3.00 2.25 4 December 2008 2.50 0.30 2.00 2.25 9 December 2008 2.50 0.30 2.00 1.50 19 December 2008 2.50 0.10 2.00 1.50 8 January 2009 2.50 0.10 1.50 1.50 15 January 2009 2.00 0.10 1.50 1.50 20 January 2009 2.00 0.10 1.50 1.00 5 February 2009 2.00 0.10 1.00 1.00 3 March 2009 2.00 0.10 1.00 0.50 5 March 2009 1.50 0.10 0.50 0.50 2 April 2009 1.25 0.10 0.50 0.50 21 April 2009 1.25 0.10 0.50 0.25 7 May 2009 1.00 0.10 0.50 0.25 16 November 2010 1.00 0.10 0.75 0.50 3 January 2011 1.25 0.10 1.25 0.75 1 April 2011 1.50 0.10 1.75 1.00 1 July 2011 1.75 0.10 2.25 1.25 3 October 2011 2.00 0.10 2.75 1.50 30 December 2011 2.00 0.10 2.75 1.50 Forecast Bottomleft panel Employment* Index, 2007:Q1 = 100 Period United States Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada 2007:Q1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2007:Q2 99.83 100.45 100.31 100.34 100.37 2007:Q3 99.85 100.85 99.99 100.76 100.90 2007:Q4 100.02 101.12 100.24 101.14 101.59 2008:Q1 100.07 101.52 100.09 101.49 102.07 2008:Q2 99.92 101.58 99.90 101.63 102.29 2008:Q3 99.38 101.34 99.39 101.23 102.27 2008:Q4 98.48 100.97 99.48 100.91 102.39 2009:Q1 96.88 100.24 99.32 100.38 100.96 2009:Q2 96.11 99.76 97.86 99.53 100.59 2009:Q3 95.34 99.28 97.63 99.55 100.38 2009:Q4 94.52 ND ND ND 100.60 * Total economy. Return to text Bottomright panel Output per Employed Person Index, 2007:Q1 = 100 Period United States Euro area Japan United Kingdom Canada 2007:Q1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2007:Q2 99.83 100.45 100.31 100.34 100.37 2007:Q3 99.85 100.85 99.99 100.76 100.90 2007:Q4 100.02 101.12 100.24 101.14 101.59 2008:Q1 100.07 101.52 100.09 101.49 102.07 2008:Q2 99.92 101.58 99.90 101.63 102.29 2008:Q3 99.38 101.34 99.39 101.23 102.27 2008:Q4 98.48 100.97 99.48 100.91 102.39 2009:Q1 96.88 100.24 99.32 100.38 100.96 2009:Q2 96.11 99.76 97.86 99.53 100.59 2009:Q3 95.34 99.28 97.63 99.55 100.38 2009:Q4 94.52 ND ND ND 100.60 Exhibit 10 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) Topleft panel Chinese Domestic Demand Retail sales volume Period Percent change* January 2006 14.36 February 2006 8.92 March 2006 13.31 April 2006 12.88 May 2006 13.07 June 2006 12.44 July 2006 12.93 August 2006 12.79 September 2006 12.55 October 2006 13.10 November 2006 12.41 December 2006 11.94 January 2007 10.75 February 2007 14.68 March 2007 12.52 April 2007 13.06 May 2007 13.18 June 2007 12.39 July 2007 11.49 August 2007 11.31 September 2007 11.54 October 2007 12.14 November 2007 12.08 December 2007 13.84 January 2008 14.14 February 2008 10.19 March 2008 12.71 April 2008 12.88 May 2008 13.12 June 2008 14.85 July 2008 15.45 August 2008 16.78 September 2008 16.99 October 2008 16.66 November 2008 17.63 December 2008 17.36 January 2009 17.68 February 2009 13.41 March 2009 16.45 April 2009 16.98 May 2009 17.45 June 2009 17.74 July 2009 18.11 August 2009 17.73 September 2009 17.28 October 2009 17.75 November 2009 15.81 December 2009 15.91 Fixedasset investment Period Percent change* 2006:Q1 26.45 2006:Q2 29.99 2006:Q3 22.36 2006:Q4 20.24 2007:Q1 26.01 2007:Q2 28.73 2007:Q3 26.35 2007:Q4 20.52 2008:Q1 24.65 2008:Q2 27.06 2008:Q3 28.06 2008:Q4 22.61 2009:Q1 28.76 2009:Q2 35.73 2009:Q3 33.22 2009:Q4 24.52 * From year earlier. Return to table Topright panel Projected Total Domestic Demand Growth 2009:H2 (Percent, annual rate) 2010 (Percent) Korea 10.0 5.4 Taiwan 7.0 5.7 Mexico 9.6 6.5 Brazil 7.4 5.8 [Data are approximate.] Middleleft panel Flows to Dedicated EME Funds Billions of USD Period Bonds Equities 2007:Q1 2.53 ND 2007:Q2 2.00 2.36 2007:Q3 1.18 14.01 2007:Q4 0.94 10.14 2008:Q1 0.49 13.41 2008:Q2 0.17 7.49 2008:Q3 4.25 14.83 2008:Q4 11.06 9.63 2009:Q1 3.10 1.56 2009:Q2 0.88 16.59 2009:Q3 3.16 5.81 2009:Q4 7.09 9.07 Middlecenter panel Equity Price/Expected Earnings Ratio Period Total emerging Asia China* January 2006 12.37 13.12 February 2006 11.06 11.83 March 2006 11.07 11.66 April 2006 11.96 12.43 May 2006 11.65 13.54 June 2006 10.32 12.70 July 2006 10.95 13.00 August 2006 11.84 12.33 September 2006 12.02 12.55 October 2006 12.63 12.58 November 2006 13.15 14.76 December 2006 13.40 17.33 January 2007 14.09 22.20 February 2007 12.53 18.86 March 2007 12.30 20.14 April 2007 13.06 22.66 May 2007 13.23 24.07 June 2007 13.55 24.67 July 2007 14.92 23.61 August 2007 13.67 28.76 September 2007 14.49 30.35 October 2007 16.61 33.77 November 2007 15.38 28.40 December 2007 14.93 27.61 January 2008 14.90 30.75 February 2008 11.83 22.00 March 2008 11.12 18.20 April 2008 12.29 17.02 May 2008 13.01 18.29 June 2008 11.94 14.72 July 2008 10.57 14.49 August 2008 11.39 13.12 September 2008 10.03 11.13 October 2008 9.57 11.68 November 2008 8.87 12.22 December 2008 11.09 13.22 January 2009 11.20 12.87 February 2009 9.53 15.00 March 2009 10.05 13.88 April 2009 11.96 16.28 May 2009 12.82 16.84 June 2009 13.33 17.66 July 2009 13.14 19.47 August 2009 13.59 17.81 September 2009 13.96 18.12 October 2009 14.02 17.27 November 2009 13.93 19.01 December 2009 13.61 17.42 * Based on Shanghai A index. Return to table Middleright panel Property Prices Index, Jan. 2006 = 100 Period China Hong Kong Korea January 2006 100.00 100.00 100.00 February 2006 100.70 100.33 100.45 March 2006 101.00 101.98 101.10 April 2006 101.41 102.86 101.99 May 2006 102.12 103.52 103.03 June 2006 102.83 101.65 103.52 July 2006 103.34 101.21 103.75 August 2006 103.76 102.42 104.00 September 2006 104.17 102.75 104.50 October 2006 104.59 102.53 105.91 November 2006 105.11 102.42 109.19 December 2006 105.74 103.30 111.23 January 2007 106.38 104.85 112.20 February 2007 107.02 106.39 112.61 March 2007 107.66 107.82 112.82 April 2007 108.41 108.70 112.96 May 2007 109.50 110.68 113.00 June 2007 110.59 111.89 113.15 July 2007 111.92 113.22 113.45 August 2007 113.49 114.54 113.66 September 2007 115.41 115.97 113.96 October 2007 117.26 119.49 114.25 November 2007 118.20 124.78 114.56 December 2007 118.44 129.85 114.72 January 2008 118.79 135.68 115.04 February 2008 119.03 138.22 115.39 March 2008 119.39 139.21 116.27 April 2008 119.62 137.33 117.29 May 2008 119.74 139.21 118.00 June 2008 119.74 139.43 118.72 July 2008 119.86 137.56 119.18 August 2008 119.74 135.35 119.42 September 2008 119.62 134.25 119.69 October 2008 119.27 125.88 119.63 November 2008 118.67 115.53 119.15 December 2008 118.08 115.42 118.29 January 2009 117.84 117.95 117.63 February 2009 117.60 118.72 117.34 March 2009 117.84 120.26 117.13 April 2009 118.31 124.89 117.20 May 2009 119.02 128.52 117.33 June 2009 119.97 133.37 117.56 July 2009 121.05 136.67 117.88 August 2009 122.14 140.31 118.25 September 2009 123.00 142.95 119.10 October 2009 123.86 144.49 119.55 November 2009 125.34 143.72 119.85 December 2009 127.22 ND 120.02 Index, Jan. 2006 = 100 Period Singapore Thailand 2006:Q1 100.00 100.00 2006:Q2 101.75 101.13 2006:Q3 104.50 100.50 2006:Q4 108.50 101.64 2007:Q1 113.75 100.38 2007:Q2 123.17 101.32 2007:Q3 133.33 103.08 2007:Q4 142.33 102.89 2008:Q1 147.67 99.31 2008:Q2 147.92 100.88 2008:Q3 144.42 101.51 2008:Q4 135.67 101.51 2009:Q1 116.58 103.90 2009:Q2 111.08 100.82 2009:Q3 128.58 94.52 2009:Q4 138.08 ND Bottomleft panel Chinese Policy and Lending Period Reserve requirements* Change in outstanding loans (Percent) (Billions of RMB) January 2007 9.50 568.40 February 2007 10.00 413.76 March 2007 10.00 441.68 April 2007 10.50 421.96 May 2007 11.00 247.27 June 2007 11.50 451.46 July 2007 11.50 231.41 August 2007 12.00 302.87 September 2007 12.50 283.49 October 2007 13.00 136.11 November 2007 13.50 87.40 December 2007 14.50 48.55 January 2008 15.00 800.47 February 2008 15.00 247.04 March 2008 15.50 283.42 April 2008 16.00 469.00 May 2008 16.50 318.50 June 2008 17.50 332.42 July 2008 17.50 381.76 August 2008 17.50 271.54 September 2008 17.50 374.47 October 2008 17.00 181.86 November 2008 17.00 254.61 December 2008 15.50 764.51 January 2009 15.50 1652.72 February 2009 15.50 1071.59 March 2009 15.50 1891.71 April 2009 15.50 591.80 May 2009 15.50 666.89 June 2009 15.50 1530.44 July 2009 15.50 369.15 August 2009 15.50 410.36 September 2009 15.50 516.67 October 2009 15.50 252.98 November 2009 15.50 294.77 December 2009 15.50 379.83 January 2010 16.00 ND * For large banks. January 2010 data is approximate. Return to table Bottomright panel Fiscal Stimulus Percent of GDP Period China Korea Mexico Brazil 2009 3.6 1.0 1.0 3.0 2010 0.2 1.0 1.3 1.5 2011 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 [Data are approximate.] Exhibit 11 (Last) External Sector Topleft panel Selected Exchange Rates Index, Dec. 3 = 100 Period Euro Japanese yen Korean won Canadian dollar 3 December 2009 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 4 December 2009 101.32 101.89 100.09 99.77 7 December 2009 101.76 101.41 100.21 99.71 8 December 2009 102.31 100.24 100.11 100.57 9 December 2009 102.42 99.58 100.87 100.10 10 December 2009 102.48 100.00 101.30 99.80 11 December 2009 103.29 101.17 101.09 100.42 14 December 2009 102.98 100.51 100.52 100.48 15 December 2009 103.91 101.94 100.57 100.79 16 December 2009 103.46 101.50 100.90 100.38 17 December 2009 105.34 102.44 101.99 101.65 18 December 2009 105.60 102.57 101.84 101.33 21 December 2009 105.32 103.12 103.08 100.50 22 December 2009 105.88 103.93 102.52 100.15 23 December 2009 105.16 103.76 102.78 99.40 24 December 2009 104.97 103.96 102.01 99.49 25 December 2009 ND ND ND ND 28 December 2009 104.79 103.82 101.57 98.97 29 December 2009 105.05 104.25 101.39 98.68 30 December 2009 105.34 105.06 101.19 99.85 31 December 2009 105.23 105.53 101.19 99.26 1 January 2010 ND ND ND ND 4 January 2010 104.59 104.93 99.91 98.46 5 January 2010 104.71 103.72 98.97 98.41 6 January 2010 104.70 104.91 98.26 98.05 7 January 2010 105.36 105.79 98.70 98.22 8 January 2010 105.04 105.10 98.07 98.16 11 January 2010 103.75 104.20 97.39 97.89 12 January 2010 103.84 103.12 97.41 98.43 13 January 2010 104.06 103.61 97.57 97.91 14 January 2010 104.16 103.21 97.61 97.35 15 January 2010 104.90 102.94 97.65 97.61 18 January 2010 ND ND ND ND 19 January 2010 105.69 103.32 98.20 97.97 20 January 2010 107.00 103.44 98.57 99.41 21 January 2010 106.91 102.32 99.22 99.47 22 January 2010 106.55 102.12 100.26 100.21 25 January 2010 106.61 102.18 99.65 100.41 26 January 2010 107.24 101.62 101.14 101.23 Topright panel Broad Real Dollar Index, 2007:Q2 = 100 Period Index June GB 2007:Q2 100.00 ND 2007:Q3 97.89 ND 2007:Q4 94.70 ND 2008:Q1 92.69 ND 2008:Q2 91.05 ND 2008:Q3 93.38 ND 2008:Q4 101.18 ND 2009:Q1 103.34 ND 2009:Q2 99.56 ND 2009:Q3 96.71 97.98 2009:Q4 94.25 97.76 2010:Q1 94.21 97.34 2010:Q2 93.73 96.78 2010:Q3 93.15 96.15 2010:Q4 92.48 95.49 2011:Q1 91.79 ND 2011:Q2 91.08 ND 2011:Q3 90.37 ND 2011:Q4 89.66 ND Forecast Middleleft panel Capital Flows Billions of U.S. dollars Period Foreign private net purchases U.S. net purchases Foreign official flows of U.S. securities of foreign securities January 2006 54.17 29.82 22.52 February 2006 54.84 33.33 24.33 March 2006 51.98 37.62 23.81 April 2006 41.30 39.33 26.34 May 2006 40.22 41.11 27.78 June 2006 43.22 43.88 25.85 July 2006 41.06 45.58 25.96 August 2006 46.49 44.32 24.69 September 2006 48.19 43.40 25.10 October 2006 59.64 39.66 24.71 November 2006 66.56 36.18 27.81 December 2006 61.28 38.82 34.55 January 2007 73.35 36.19 34.79 February 2007 68.51 40.29 38.36 March 2007 70.03 45.27 43.06 April 2007 68.67 48.23 43.72 May 2007 75.38 46.17 43.03 June 2007 87.10 42.02 38.15 July 2007 72.30 43.19 36.73 August 2007 63.00 29.90 38.18 September 2007 50.72 22.53 36.92 October 2007 56.05 24.25 34.32 November 2007 36.71 32.94 24.25 December 2007 25.22 37.18 22.99 January 2008 20.96 46.55 23.55 February 2008 26.28 55.39 19.54 March 2008 24.38 62.46 11.78 April 2008 11.11 63.81 8.52 May 2008 11.30 62.39 15.63 June 2008 7.05 63.39 14.61 July 2008 3.55 51.66 5.65 2.67 47.92 0.21 September 2008 2.26 49.97 5.93 October 2008 8.43 38.06 8.77 November 2008 0.41 27.22 18.68 December 2008 4.63 16.61 22.35 January 2009 1.70 13.90 12.65 February 2009 5.77 17.72 9.52 March 2009 9.48 8.77 4.12 August 2008 April 2009 8.11 16.70 4.07 May 2009 4.92 23.49 13.74 June 2009 0.38 32.53 20.80 July 2009 11.42 35.70 20.89 August 2009 4.89 33.18 21.25 September 2009 1.47 32.81 23.23 October 2009 3.90 34.33 23.03 11.13 34.95 18.60 November 2009 Note: Sixmonth moving average. Middleright panel Trade in Real Goods and Services 2009 Q3 2010p 2011p Q4e Growth Rates (percent, a.r.) 1. Exports 17.8 17.3 9.5 9.3 2. Imports 21.3 11.8 8.8 8.3 0.2 0.1 Contribution to Real GDP Growth (percentage points, a.r.) 3. Net Exports 0.8 0.2 Bottomleft panel U.S. Exports and Imports Billions of chained (2005) dollars Period Exports June GB Exports Imports June GB Imports 2007:Q1 1485.88 ND 2190.84 ND 2007:Q2 1504.76 ND 2188.13 ND 2007:Q3 1569.90 ND 2208.34 ND 2007:Q4 1623.96 ND 2188.01 ND 2008:Q1 1623.42 ND 2174.29 ND 2008:Q2 1670.43 ND 2146.48 ND 2008:Q3 1655.18 ND 2134.43 ND 2008:Q4 1568.01 ND 2038.89 ND 2009:Q1 1434.55 ND 1821.04 ND 2009:Q2 1419.46 1417.96 1749.83 1750.40 2009:Q3 1478.83 1430.44 1836.25 1763.94 2009:Q4 1538.99 1439.23 1888.36 1807.81 2010:Q1 1575.44 1450.91 1938.18 1840.22 2010:Q2 1609.18 1464.27 1976.70 1843.00 2010:Q3 1645.80 1480.17 2019.58 1853.17 2010:Q4 1685.32 1497.34 2053.89 1905.50 2011:Q1 1724.67 ND 2099.47 ND 2011:Q2 1763.45 ND 2141.11 ND Forecast 2011:Q2 1763.45 ND 2141.11 ND 2011:Q3 1803.06 ND 2188.30 ND 2011:Q4 1842.69 ND 2223.63 ND Bottomright panel Current Account Period Percent of GDP Billions of dollars 2005:Q1 5.64 697.88 2005:Q2 5.72 716.24 2005:Q3 5.82 741.35 2005:Q4 6.50 839.26 2006:Q1 6.03 794.60 2006:Q2 6.06 808.31 2006:Q3 6.39 859.16 2006:Q4 5.53 752.12 2007:Q1 5.77 796.40 2007:Q2 5.44 762.12 2007:Q3 4.84 686.46 2007:Q4 4.61 661.32 2008:Q1 4.99 717.19 2008:Q2 5.18 750.88 2008:Q3 5.06 736.71 2008:Q4 4.32 619.50 2009:Q1 2.95 417.80 2009:Q2 2.77 391.93 2009:Q3 3.03 432.14 2009:Q4 3.09 446.57 2010:Q1 3.29 481.69 2010:Q2 3.19 472.23 2010:Q3 3.23 484.21 2010:Q4 3.16 478.78 2011:Q1 3.27 503.41 2011:Q2 3.16 492.61 2011:Q3 3.21 507.70 2011:Q4 3.16 507.35 Forecast Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. Madigan Material for Briefing on FOMC Participants' Economic Projections Brian Madigan January 2627, 2010 Class I FOMC RestrictedControlled (FR) Exhibit 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 201012 and over the longer run Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. Change in real GDP Percent 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.9 0.0 Upper End of Range 4.0 4.7 5.0 3.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 3.5 4.5 4.5 2.8 Lower End of Central Tendency 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.5 Lower End of Range 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run 5.0 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 Upper End of Range 10.0 8.8 7.6 6.3 Upper End of Central Tendency 9.7 8.5 7.5 5.2 Lower End of Central Tendency 9.5 8.2 6.6 5.0 Lower End of Range 8.6 7.2 6.1 4.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run 3.3 1.9 3.6 1.7 1.3 Upper End of Range 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 Lower End of Central Tendency 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 Lower End of Range 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.5 Actual Unemployment rate Percent Actual PCE inflation Percent Actual Core PCE inflation Percent 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Actual 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 Upper End of Range 2.0 2.4 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 1.7 1.9 1.9 Lower End of Central Tendency 1.1 1.0 1.2 Lower End of Range 0.9 0.9 0.8 NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. [In the first table, emphasis (italic) indicates a Greenbook forecast value for 2009.] Exhibit 2: Economic Projections for 20102012 and Longer Run Real GDP Growth 2010 Central Tendency 2011 2012 Longer run 2.8 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8 November projections 2.5 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.8 2.5 to 2.8 Range 2.3 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.7 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0 November projections 2.0 to 4.0 2.5 to 4.6 2.8 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0 Memo: Greenbook 4.7 4.5 2.5 3.4 4.4 5.0 2.5 2010 November Greenbook 3.6 2011 2012 Unemployment Rate Central Tendency Longer run 9.5 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.5 6.6 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2 9.3 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.6 6.8 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2 8.6 to 10.0 7.2 to 8.8 6.1 to 7.6 4.9 to 6.3 November projections 8.6 to 10.2 7.2 to 8.7 6.1 to 7.6 4.8 to 6.3 November projections Range Memo: Greenbook 8.2 6.1 5.0 9.5 8.2 6.1 4.8 2010 November Greenbook 9.5 2011 2012 PCE Inflation Central Tendency Longer run 1.4 to 1.7 1.1 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 November projections 1.3 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9 1.7 to 2.0 Range 1.2 to 2.0 1.0 to 2.4 0.8 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 November projections 1.1 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.4 0.2 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.0 Memo: Greenbook 1.1 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.2 2.0 2010 November Greenbook 1.4 2011 2012 Core PCE Inflation Central Tendency 1.1 to 1.7 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9 November projections 1.0 to 1.5 1.0 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.7 Range 0.9 to 2.0 0.9 to 2.4 0.8 to 2.0 November projections 0.9 to 2.0 0.5 to 2.4 0.2 to 2.3 Memo: Greenbook November Greenbook 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 Exhibit 3. Risks and Uncertainty in Economic Projections Topleft panel Uncertainty about GDP Growth Number of participants Lower Similar Higher January projections 0 3 14 November projections 0 1 16 Topright panel Risks to GDP Growth Number of participants Downside Balanced Upside January projections 1 16 0 November projections 1 16 0 Bottomleft panel Uncertainty about PCE Inflation Number of participants Lower Similar Higher January projections 1 3 13 November projections 1 2 14 Bottomright panel Risks to PCE Inflation Number of participants Downside Balanced Upside January projections 1 14 2 November projections 2 13 2 Appendix 5: Materials used by Mr. Stockton The Market for New SingleFamily Homes Top panel 2009 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 Q4 Oct. Nov. Dec. Sales1 Total 374 372 Previous Percent Change 406 373 370 400 407 408 342 355 22.9 10.1 9.1 8.1 4.3 9.3 7.6 Northeast 31 27 38 34 33 28 40 Midwest 54 49 60 57 56 73 43 South 202 202 208 198 224 192 178 West 87 93 101 84 95 77 81 231 280 252 231 242 235 231 By region Inventories New homes for sale2 9.1 9.4 7.7 7.6 7.1 7.6 8.1 270.4 270.0 274.9 269.1 263.1 267.3 299.1 Yeartoyear percent change5 7.6 10.3 3.8 2.3 4.2 7.1 10.5 Oneperiod percent change (annual rate for quarters, monthly rate for months) 7.6 15.2 7.4 8.1 10.4 1.6 11.9 Yeartoyear percent change5 4.5 6.0 5.9 .3 n.a. n.a. n.a. Oneperiod percent change (annual rate for quarters) 4.5 2.3 2.6 8.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. Months' supply3 Prices Mean (thousands of dollars)4 Constantquality price index6 1. Thousands of units, s.a.a.r., except where noted. Percent change is from previous comparable period, not at an annual rate. Return to table 2. Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted, end of period stock. Return to table 3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of s.a. inventories to s.a. sales. Quarterly and annual values are averages of monthly values. Return to table 4. Quarterly and annual values of mean prices are equal to a weighted average of monthly data; the weights are based on the response rate to the survey in each month. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table 5. Yeartoyear percent changes are from the yearearlier comparable period. Return to table 6. Based on characteristics of new homes sold in 2005. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table s.a.a.r. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. s.a. Seasonally adjusted. n.a. Not available. Source: Census Bureau. Bottomleft panel New Home Sales Data plotted as a curve. The period covered is from January 1997 through December 2009, and the data are in millions of units. As shown in the figure, new home sales were relatively flat from 1999 through 2002, at which point they increased until their peak in mid2005. New home sales fell drastically from 2006 through about 2008, and have remained more or less flat at a low level for 2009. The most recent month of data (December 2009) shows a 7.6% decrease in new home sales from the previous month (November 2009). Source: Census Bureau. Bottomright panel Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply Data plotted as curves. The period covered is from January 2001 through December 2009. The chart shows two curves, plotted on different scales. The left scale shows inventories of new homes in thousands of units. Inventories rose from the beginning of 2001 to mid2006, and have fallen drastically since then. The most recent month of data (December 2009) is the lowest level of inventories during the time period shown. The right scale shows months' supply of new homes, and the units are number of months. Months' supply was relatively flat from 2001 through mid2005 at a level of about 4 months. From there it increased to its peak of about 11 months at the end of 2008. The months' supply has fallen since the end of 2008, but remains elevated compared to its level in the early 2000s. Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3month moving average of sales. Source: Census Bureau. Appendix 6: Materials used by Mr. English Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives Bill English January 27, 2010 Class I FOMC RestrictedControlled FR December FOMC Statement Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment, though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to payrolls; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longerterm inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgagebacked securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. In light of ongoing improvements in the functioning of financial markets, the Committee and the Board of Governors anticipate that most of the Federal Reserve's special liquidity facilities will expire on February 1, 2010, consistent with the Federal Reserve's announcement of June 25, 2009. These facilities include the AssetBacked Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility. The Federal Reserve will also be working with its central bank counterparties to close its temporary liquidity swap arrangements by February 1. The Federal Reserve expects that amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back in early 2010. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term AssetBacked Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30, 2010, for loans backed by newissue commercial mortgagebacked securities and March 31, 2010, for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth. [Note: In the January FOMC Statement Alternatives, strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.] January FOMC StatementAlternative A Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and firms remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Recent data indicate that housing activity remains sluggish and the level of foreclosures continues to be elevated. In light of the weakness in labor markets and prospects for a subpar economic recovery, the Committee judges that further monetary stimulus is warranted. Energy prices have risen in recent months, but core inflation has remained low. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longerterm inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. To provide further support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to promote a more robust economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee decided to expand its purchases of agency mortgagebacked securities to a total of $1.5 trillion, up from the previously announced amount of $1.25 trillion; the Committee anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the third quarter. The Federal Reserve is also in the process of purchasing about $175 billion of agency debt, and the Committee anticipates that those transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the AssetBacked Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back, with $50 billion in 28day credit to be offered at the next auction on February 8; the Federal Reserve expects to offer $25 billion in 28day credit on March 8 and will consider whether to conduct further auctions beyond that date. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term AssetBacked Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by newissue commercial mortgagebacked securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth. January FOMC StatementAlternative B Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. Energy prices have risen in recent months. However, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longerterm inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases [or holdings] of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the AssetBacked Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back, with $50 billion in 28day credit to be offered at the next auction on February 8; the Federal Reserve expects to offer $25 billion in 28day credit on March 8 and will consider whether to conduct further auctions beyond that date. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term AssetBacked Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by newissue commercial mortgagebacked securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth. January FOMC StatementAlternative C Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity is increasing at a solid rate and that the labor market is stabilizing. Financial market conditions have continued to become more supportive of economic growth. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, and firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. With a sustainable economic recovery now under way, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization. Inflation has been somewhat elevated recently, reflecting a pickup in energy prices, but longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable. The Committee expects that, with appropriate monetary policy adjustments, inflation will be at levels consistent with price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. The Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgagebacked securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the AssetBacked Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back, with $50 billion in 28day credit to be offered at the next auction on February 8; the Federal Reserve expects to offer $25 billion in 28day credit on March 8 and will consider whether to conduct further auctions beyond that date. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term AssetBacked Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by newissue commercial mortgagebacked securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth. Table 1: Overview of Alternative Language for the January 2627, 2010 FOMC Announcement December FOMC January Alternatives A B C "has continued to strengthen" "is increasing at a solid rate" Economic Activity Recent Developments "has continued to pick up" Labor Markets "the deterioration… is abating" Financial Markets "conditions have become more supportive" "conditions remain supportive" "conditions have continued to become more supportive" Other Factors fiscal and monetary stimulus, market forces "housing activity remains sluggish" "bank lending continues to contract" "likely to remain weak further monetary stimulus warranted by prospects pace of recovery sustainable recovery Outlook "has continued to pick up" "the deterioration… is abating" "the labor market is stabilizing" for a time" for subpar recovery "likely to be moderate" "now under way" energy prices have risen inflation somewhat elevated by pickup in energy prices Inflation energy prices have risen but core inflation has remained low Recent Developments Key Factors substantial resource slack, stable expectations substantial resource slack, stable expectations appropriate monetary policy adjustments, stable expectations Outlook "will remain subdued for some time" "likely to be subdued for some time" "will be at levels consistent with price stability" Forward Guidance on Funds Rate Path "exceptionally low… for an extended period" "exceptionally low…for an extended period" "low…for some time" Agency MBS Purchases Amount $1.25 trillion $1.5 trillion $1.25 trillion Timing by the end of the first quarter by the end of the third quarter by the end of the first quarter Evaluation of Balance Sheet Adjustments "the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities" "the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities" "its purchases [or holdings] of securities" "the size and composition of its securities holdings" Directives December FOMC Meeting The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its longrun objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt and agency MBS during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The timing and pace of these purchases should depend on conditions in the markets for such securities and on a broader assessment of private credit market conditions. The Desk is expected to execute purchases of about $175 billion in housingrelated agency debt and about $1.25 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Desk is expected to gradually slow the pace of these purchases as they near completion. The Committee anticipates that outright purchases of securities will cause the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand significantly in coming months. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. January FOMC Meeting Alternative A The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its longrun objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt and agency MBS during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The timing and pace of these purchases should depend on conditions in the markets for such securities and on a broader assessment of private credit market conditions. The Desk is expected to execute purchases of about $175 billion in housingrelated agency debt by the end of the first quarter and to execute purchases of about $1.5 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the third quarter. The Desk is expected to gradually slow the pace of these purchases as they near completion. The Committee anticipates that outright purchases of securities will cause the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand significantly in coming months. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions to be conducted through the end of the third quarter, as directed above. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. January FOMC Meeting Alternatives B and C The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its longrun objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt and agency MBS during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The timing and pace of these purchases should depend on conditions in the markets for such securities and on a broader assessment of private credit market conditions. The Desk is expected to execute purchases of about $175 billion in housingrelated agency debt and about $1.25 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the first quarter. The Desk is expected to gradually slow the pace of these purchases as they near completion. The Committee anticipates that outright purchases of securities will cause the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand significantly in coming months. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions to be conducted through the end of the first quarter, as directed above. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Return to top Home | Monetary policy | FOMC | FOMC transcripts Accessibility | Contact Us Last update: January 15, 2016
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