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SEP: Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections (PDF) Authorized for Public Release Percent Central tendency1 Range2 Variable 2010 Longer run 2010 2.8 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8 2.3 to 4.0 2.7 to 4.7 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0 November projection 2.5 to 3.5 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.8 2.5 to 2.8 2.0 to 4.0 2.5 to 4.6 2.8 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0 9.5 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.5 6.6 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2 8.6 to 10.0 7.2 to 8.8 6.1 to 7.6 4.9 to 6.3 November projection 9.3 to 9.7 8.2 to 8.6 6.8 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.2 8.6 to 10.2 7.2 to 8.7 6.1 to 7.6 4.8 to 6.3 1.4 to 1.7 1.1 to 2.0 1.3 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.2 to 2.0 1.0 to 2.4 0.8 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 November projection 1.3 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9 1.7 to 2.0 1.1 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.4 0.2 to 2.3 1.5 to 2.0 1.1 to 1.7 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 1.9 1.0 to 2.0 0.9 to 2.4 0.8 to 2.0 November projection 1.0 to 1.5 1.0 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.7 0.9 to 2.0 0.5 to 2.4 0.2 to 2.3 Change in real GDP Unemployment rate PCE inflation Core PCE inflation3 2011 2012 2011 2012 Longer run Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The November projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on November 3-4, 2009. 1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to table 2. The range for a variable in a given year consists of all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. Return to table 3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. Return to table * Central Tendencies and Ranges Central Tendency Range Change in Real GDP 2.8 to 3.4 1.8 to 3.8 PCE Inflation 1.5 to 1.8 0.7 to 2.0 Core PCE Inflation 1.1 to 1.6 1.0 to 2.0 Participants' Projections Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 3.5 1.8 1.6 2 3.8 2.0 2.0 3 3.0 2.0 2.0 4 2.8 1.2 1.1 5 3.1 1.5 1.2 6 3.3 1.6 1.2 7 3.1 1.6 1.2 8 3.1 1.7 1.4 9 3.4 1.8 1.4 10 3.3 1.6 1.2 11 3.2 1.7 1.3 12 3.4 2.0 2.0 13 1.8 1.7 1.0 14 3.2 1.6 1.1 15 2.1 0.7 1.0 16 2.4 1.3 1.2 17 3.1 1.7 1.2 * Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. Return to text * Central Tendencies and Ranges Central Tendency Range Change in Real GDP 2.8 to 3.8 2.5 to 4.2 PCE Inflation 1.2 to 1.7 1.1 to 2.0 Core PCE Inflation 1.1 to 1.6 0.8 to 2.0 Participants' Projections Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 2.5 1.6 1.8 2 4.2 2.0 2.0 Projection Change in Real GDP PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 3 2.6 1.6 1.6 4 3.2 1.4 1.1 5 3.3 1.3 1.2 6 3.7 1.2 1.2 7 3.7 1.2 1.0 8 3.9 1.7 1.2 9 3.6 1.6 1.4 10 3.9 1.2 1.2 11 3.8 1.3 1.3 12 3.4 2.0 2.0 13 2.8 1.1 1.2 14 3.8 1.2 1.1 15 2.9 1.7 1.2 16 2.6 1.1 1.2 17 3.1 1.3 0.8 * Projections for the second half of 2010 implied by participants' January projections for the first half of 2010 and for 2010 as a whole. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. Return to text Projection Year Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 2010 3.0 9.7 1.7 1.7 2 2010 4.0 9.2 2.0 2.0 3 2010 2.8 9.5 1.8 1.8 4 2010 3.0 9.7 1.3 1.1 5 2010 3.2 9.5 1.4 1.2 6 2010 3.5 9.5 1.4 1.2 7 2010 3.4 9.5 1.4 1.1 8 2010 3.5 9.5 1.7 1.3 9 2010 3.5 9.6 1.7 1.4 10 2010 3.6 9.5 1.4 1.2 11 2010 3.5 9.5 1.5 1.3 12 2010 3.4 8.6 2.0 2.0 13 2010 2.3 10.0 1.4 1.1 14 2010 3.5 9.5 1.4 1.1 15 2010 2.5 9.5 1.2 1.1 16 2010 2.5 9.7 1.2 1.2 17 2010 3.1 9.7 1.5 1.0 Projection Year Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation Core PCE Inflation 1 2011 3.2 8.8 2.0 1.9 2 2011 4.4 8.2 2.0 2.0 3 2011 3.4 8.3 2.0 2.0 4 2011 4.5 8.6 1.2 1.0 5 2011 4.2 8.5 1.4 1.3 6 2011 4.5 8.2 1.1 1.0 7 2011 4.3 8.5 1.0 0.9 8 2011 4.6 8.4 1.8 1.2 9 2011 4.0 8.4 1.5 1.4 10 2011 4.7 8.2 1.1 1.1 11 2011 4.5 8.2 1.7 1.5 12 2011 3.0 7.2 2.4 2.4 13 2011 4.1 8.1 1.6 1.5 14 2011 4.4 8.2 1.1 1.0 15 2011 4.3 7.8 1.8 1.5 16 2011 2.7 8.5 1.3 1.3 17 2011 4.5 8.7 1.5 1.0 1 2012 3.4 7.6 2.0 1.9 2 2012 3.5 7.2 1.5 1.5 3 2012 3.5 7.5 2.0 2.0 4 2012 4.5 7.0 1.5 1.2 5 2012 4.0 7.4 1.5 1.5 6 2012 4.3 6.6 1.3 1.2 7 2012 4.5 7.0 0.8 0.8 8 2012 4.8 6.9 1.8 1.2 9 2012 4.0 7.2 1.5 1.4 10 2012 4.5 6.1 1.3 1.2 11 2012 4.5 7.0 1.9 1.7 12 2012 3.0 6.5 2.0 2.0 13 2012 5.0 6.5 2.0 2.0 14 2012 4.4 6.8 1.0 1.0 15 2012 4.1 6.7 1.7 1.7 16 2012 3.0 7.6 1.5 1.5 17 2012 4.8 7.5 1.5 1.2 1 LR 2.5 6.3 2.0 2 LR 2.8 5.3 1.5 3 LR 3.0 5.0 2.0 4 LR 2.5 4.9 2.0 Projection Year Change in Real GDP Unemployment Rate PCE Inflation 5 LR 2.5 5.0 1.8 6 LR 2.8 5.0 2.0 7 LR 2.5 5.0 2.0 8 LR 2.6 5.2 2.0 9 LR 2.7 5.0 1.5 10 LR 2.8 5.0 2.0 11 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0 12 LR 2.8 5.3 1.7 13 LR 2.4 5.0 2.0 14 LR 2.5 5.0 2.0 15 LR 2.6 5.0 2.0 16 LR 2.5 5.2 2.0 17 LR 2.8 5.0 Core PCE Inflation 1.5 Change in real GDP Percent 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run 2.7 2.4 2.5 -1.9 0.0 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.0 4.7 5.0 3.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.5 4.5 4.5 2.8 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.5 Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run 5.0 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 10.0 8.8 7.6 6.3 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.7 8.5 7.5 5.2 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.5 8.2 6.6 5.0 Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.6 7.2 6.1 4.9 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run 3.3 1.9 3.6 1.7 1.3 - - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 Actual Unemployment rate Percent Actual PCE inflation Percent Actual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 - - - Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.4 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 1.9 1.9 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.1 1.0 1.2 Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.0 0.9 0.8 Core PCE inflation Percent Actual Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. The data for the change in real GDP, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation shown for 2009 incorporate the advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on January 29, 2010. This information was not available to FOMC meeting participants at the time of their meeting. 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 3 14 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 1 16 0 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) B B A A A A A A B A A A A A A A A 2(b) B B B B B B B B B B B B C B B B B 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Number of participants Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 0 5 12 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 0 14 3 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) B B A B A A A A B A A B A A A A A 2(b) B B A B B B B B B A B B A B B B B 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 1 3 13 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 1 14 2 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) A B A B A A A B C A A A A A A A A 2(b) B B A B B B C B B B B A B B B B B 2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years. Lower (C) Broadly similar (B) Higher (A) 1 2 14 Number of participants 2(b): Please indicate your judgment of the risk weighting around your projections. Weighted to downside (C) Broadly balanced (B) Weighted to upside (A) 1 14 2 Number of participants Individual Responses Respondent 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2(a) A B A A A A A B C A A A A A A A A 2(b) B B A B B B C B B B B A B B B B B Number of participants (except as noted) 2010 Percent range 2011 2012 Longer Run January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections 2.0 - 2.1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.2 - 2.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 - 2.5 2 3 0 1 0 0 8 8 2.6 - 2.7 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 2.8 - 2.9 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 5 3.0 - 3.1 3 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 3.2 - 3.3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.4 - 3.5 7 4 1 1 3 3 0 0 3.6 - 3.7 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4.0 - 4.1 1 1 2 3 3 2 0 0 4.2 - 4.3 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 4.4 - 4.5 0 0 6 7 5 4 0 0 4.6 - 4.7 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 Greenbook percent range 3.6 - 3.7 3.4 - 3.5 4.6 - 4.7 4.4 - 4.5 4.4 - 4.5 5.0 - 5.1 Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of participants (except as noted) 2010 Percent range 2011 2012 Longer Run January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections 4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 11 5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2010 Percent range 2011 2012 Longer Run January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections 6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 7.0 - 7.1 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 7.2 - 7.3 0 0 1 1 2 3 0 0 7.4 - 7.5 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 7.6 - 7.7 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 7.8 - 7.9 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 - 8.1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 8.2 - 8.3 0 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 8.4 - 8.5 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 8.6 - 8.7 1 1 2 5 0 0 0 0 8.8 - 8.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 9.0 - 9.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.2 - 9.3 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.4 - 9.5 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.6 - 9.7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.8 - 9.9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.0 - 10.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.2 - 10.3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Greenbook percent range 9.4 - 9.5 9.4 - 9.5 8.2 - 8.3 8.2 - 8.3 6.0 - 6.1 6.0 - 6.1 Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of participants (except as noted) 2010 Percent range 2011 2012 Longer Run January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections 0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 - 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.9 - 1.0 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0 1.1 - 1.2 2 3 4 1 0 1 0 0 1.3 - 1.4 7 7 2 2 2 2 0 0 2010 Percent range 2011 2012 Longer Run January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections 1.5 - 1.6 2 4 3 4 6 5 3 3 1.7 - 1.8 4 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 1.9 - 2.0 2 2 3 4 5 4 12 12 2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.3 - 2.4 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 Greenbook percent range 1.3 - 1.4 1.3 - 1.4 1.1 - 1.2 0.9 - 1.0 1.3 - 1.4 1.1 - 1.2 Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of participants (except as noted) 2010 Percent range 2011 2012 January projections November projections January projections November projections January projections November projections 0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 - 0.6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.7 - 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.9 - 1.0 1 4 5 6 1 3 1.1 - 1.2 9 7 2 1 5 2 1.3 - 1.4 3 2 3 1 1 1 1.5 - 1.6 0 2 3 5 3 4 1.7 - 1.8 2 0 0 0 2 3 1.9 - 2.0 2 2 3 2 4 2 2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.3 - 2.4 0 0 1 1 0 1 Greenbook percent range 1.1 - 1.2 1.1 - 1.2 1.1 - 1.2 0.9 - 1.0 1.1 - 1.2 1.1 - 1.2 Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Return to top Home | Monetary policy | FOMC | FOMC transcripts Accessibility | Contact Us Last update: January 29, 2016
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