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Accessible Version Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee January 2526, 2011 Presentation Materials Presentation Materials (PDF) Pages 231 to 282 of the Transcript Appendix 1: Materials used by Messrs. Fallick and Faberman, and Ms. Şahin Material for FOMC Briefing on Structural Unemployment Bruce Fallick, Jason Faberman, and Aysegul Sahin January 25, 2011 Class II FOMC Restricted (FR) Exhibit 1 Causes for Concern Top panel Categories of Unemployment Structural or frictional unemployment reflects difficulties in matching available workers to available jobs. Demographics. The technology of job search and worker screening. Imbalances between the characteristics or locations of potential workers and vacant jobs. Cyclical unemployment is due to a shortfall in aggregate economic activity. Inflation is most sensitive to cyclical unemployment. The line between these categories is often blurry. Middleleft panel Payroll Employment Thousands Financial Activities Residential Construction January 2000 Period 7674 ND February 2000 7674 ND March 2000 7672 ND April 2000 7667 ND May 2000 7666 ND June 2000 7671 ND July 2000 7669 ND August 2000 7680 ND September 2000 7699 ND October 2000 7712 ND November 2000 7726 ND Period Financial Activities Residential Construction December 2000 7743 ND January 2001 7755 2601.0 February 2001 7776 2612.4 March 2001 7795 2619.2 April 2001 7800 2615.7 May 2001 7809 2631.5 June 2001 7811 2636.3 July 2001 7799 2637.5 August 2001 7824 2639.9 September 2001 7826 2639.9 October 2001 7829 2641.4 November 2001 7843 2644.1 December 2001 7835 2649.0 January 2002 7840 2644.7 February 2002 7829 2656.1 March 2002 7825 2673.1 April 2002 7829 2670.0 May 2002 7824 2675.1 June 2002 7827 2675.9 July 2002 7830 2683.1 August 2002 7838 2699.5 September 2002 7858 2713.9 October 2002 7878 2716.8 November 2002 7890 2741.5 December 2002 7905 2736.7 January 2003 7913 2737.6 February 2003 7929 2734.1 March 2003 7942 2743.8 April 2003 7971 2762.7 May 2003 7988 2772.3 June 2003 7985 2795.4 July 2003 8001 2807.7 August 2003 8005 2827.2 September 2003 8008 2844.0 October 2003 7995 2860.8 November 2003 7990 2882.7 December 2003 7983 2897.5 January 2004 7984 2921.3 February 2004 7989 2929.8 March 2004 7998 2954.5 April 2004 8011 2964.7 May 2004 8034 2989.3 June 2004 8039 3008.9 July 2004 8027 3029.2 August 2004 8036 3047.6 September 2004 8055 3065.0 October 2004 8053 3090.2 November 2004 8060 3103.1 Period Financial Activities Residential Construction December 2004 8083 3127.7 January 2005 8091 3116.9 February 2005 8097 3156.8 March 2005 8095 3176.5 April 2005 8103 3208.4 May 2005 8108 3236.2 June 2005 8127 3252.2 July 2005 8148 3267.6 August 2005 8172 3284.2 September 2005 8182 3310.9 October 2005 8218 3343.9 November 2005 8243 3370.9 December 2005 8250 3395.3 January 2006 8270 3422.0 February 2006 8296 3446.5 March 2006 8316 3445.5 April 2006 8339 3450.5 May 2006 8340 3442.8 June 2006 8325 3424.5 July 2006 8326 3408.9 August 2006 8333 3414.5 September 2006 8350 3385.5 October 2006 8343 3347.0 November 2006 8348 3341.2 December 2006 8352 3335.2 January 2007 8346 3322.6 February 2007 8348 3285.7 March 2007 8338 3303.5 April 2007 8320 3292.5 May 2007 8326 3284.2 June 2007 8319 3277.3 July 2007 8322 3262.2 August 2007 8295 3217.7 September 2007 8268 3175.9 October 2007 8257 3134.4 November 2007 8234 3096.1 December 2007 8227 3061.9 January 2008 8218 3029.2 February 2008 8208 2997.2 March 2008 8208 2968.5 April 2008 8202 2930.9 May 2008 8193 2881.7 June 2008 8176 2844.4 July 2008 8161 2805.4 August 2008 8143 2765.4 September 2008 8110 2729.8 October 2008 8073 2676.2 November 2008 8029 2594.5 Period Financial Activities Residential Construction December 2008 8000 2551.5 January 2009 7945 2480.6 February 2009 7894 2424.0 March 2009 7852 2361.9 April 2009 7805 2305.4 May 2009 7773 2288.8 June 2009 7742 2251.9 July 2009 7719 2224.2 August 2009 7695 2202.8 September 2009 7683 2185.5 October 2009 7664 2172.0 November 2009 7666 2169.2 December 2009 7657 2167.1 January 2010 7635 2150.3 February 2010 7628 2139.6 March 2010 7609 2133.2 April 2010 7611 2132.0 May 2010 7602 2126.6 June 2010 7591 2119.1 July 2010 7581 2104.1 August 2010 7578 2099.1 September 2010 7582 2096.9 October 2010 7585 2088.6 November 2010 7581 2088.7 December 2010 7585 2086.9 Middleright panel Dispersion in Major Industry Employment Change Percent Idiosyncratic dispersion Cyclical dispersion 1970:Q1 Period 0.37 1.77 1970:Q2 0.94 5.62 1970:Q3 0.35 8.55 1970:Q4 3.52 12.66 1971:Q1 1.76 9.45 1971:Q2 3.15 4.48 1971:Q3 4.44 1.77 1971:Q4 0.74 0.65 1972:Q1 1.62 0.25 1972:Q2 0.13 0.09 1972:Q3 0.59 0.12 1972:Q4 1.15 1.00 1973:Q1 0.52 0.03 1973:Q2 0.22 0.10 1973:Q3 0.66 1.47 1973:Q4 1.07 0.59 1974:Q1 1.19 0.12 1974:Q2 1.12 1.09 Period Idiosyncratic dispersion Cyclical dispersion 1974:Q3 0.31 3.68 1974:Q4 0.42 10.12 1975:Q1 5.28 21.61 1975:Q2 7.27 27.68 1975:Q3 6.94 21.58 1975:Q4 2.95 10.69 1976:Q1 0.69 0.26 1976:Q2 0.35 0.33 1976:Q3 0.51 0.64 1976:Q4 0.79 1.05 1977:Q1 0.12 0.11 1977:Q2 0.33 0.48 1977:Q3 0.16 0.66 1977:Q4 0.48 0.29 1978:Q1 0.04 0.70 1978:Q2 0.92 0.74 1978:Q3 1.83 0.52 1978:Q4 1.62 0.25 1979:Q1 2.08 0.49 1979:Q2 0.85 0.04 1979:Q3 0.26 0.20 1979:Q4 0.24 0.44 1980:Q1 0.18 1.25 1980:Q2 0.30 6.94 1980:Q3 1.05 9.61 1980:Q4 0.01 6.94 1981:Q1 0.81 4.75 1981:Q2 1.80 0.19 1981:Q3 4.75 0.86 1981:Q4 2.65 1.65 1982:Q1 1.62 3.63 1982:Q2 1.75 7.79 1982:Q3 1.96 10.09 1982:Q4 3.17 11.81 1983:Q1 2.89 9.33 1983:Q2 2.62 4.95 1983:Q3 1.52 1.14 1983:Q4 0.62 2.05 1984:Q1 1.17 3.55 1984:Q2 1.78 3.55 1984:Q3 2.00 1.24 1984:Q4 3.72 1.72 1985:Q1 4.60 2.84 1985:Q2 5.85 2.21 1985:Q3 6.82 1.76 1985:Q4 6.65 1.63 1986:Q1 6.71 2.21 1986:Q2 7.60 2.02 Period Idiosyncratic dispersion Cyclical dispersion 1986:Q3 7.35 1.43 1986:Q4 5.85 0.56 1987:Q1 4.32 0.15 1987:Q2 1.46 0.46 1987:Q3 0.10 0.30 1987:Q4 0.25 0.23 1988:Q1 0.07 0.54 1988:Q2 0.74 1.19 1988:Q3 1.53 1.19 1988:Q4 2.32 1.30 1989:Q1 2.07 1.02 1989:Q2 2.11 0.93 1989:Q3 2.39 1.44 1989:Q4 1.34 0.47 1990:Q1 1.37 0.22 1990:Q2 0.75 0.76 1990:Q3 0.84 1.36 1990:Q4 0.26 3.05 1991:Q1 0.73 6.56 1991:Q2 0.68 6.89 1991:Q3 0.22 6.96 1991:Q4 0.09 5.57 1992:Q1 0.04 3.56 1992:Q2 0.57 1.69 1992:Q3 2.31 0.19 1992:Q4 2.26 1.01 1993:Q1 1.53 0.93 1993:Q2 1.78 0.85 1993:Q3 1.15 0.15 1993:Q4 0.96 0.05 1994:Q1 0.55 0.13 1994:Q2 0.73 0.21 1994:Q3 0.92 0.29 1994:Q4 1.16 0.21 1995:Q1 2.03 0.13 1995:Q2 1.60 0.10 1995:Q3 1.26 0.08 1995:Q4 0.92 0.16 1996:Q1 0.42 0.04 1996:Q2 0.97 0.07 1996:Q3 1.12 0.05 1996:Q4 1.12 0.07 1997:Q1 1.50 0.10 1997:Q2 1.91 0.12 1997:Q3 1.89 0.14 1997:Q4 1.55 0.00 1998:Q1 1.25 0.18 1998:Q2 0.72 0.17 Period Idiosyncratic dispersion Cyclical dispersion 1998:Q3 1.03 0.06 1998:Q4 1.93 0.09 1999:Q1 3.20 0.43 1999:Q2 4.04 0.62 1999:Q3 3.30 0.39 1999:Q4 3.14 0.38 2000:Q1 2.30 0.24 2000:Q2 1.70 0.52 2000:Q3 0.74 0.35 2000:Q4 0.15 0.22 2001:Q1 0.07 0.41 2001:Q2 0.69 1.51 2001:Q3 2.24 4.30 2001:Q4 5.05 7.23 2002:Q1 6.61 7.92 2002:Q2 4.56 6.52 2002:Q3 3.46 4.06 2002:Q4 1.70 2.98 2003:Q1 1.37 2.35 2003:Q2 1.70 2.18 2003:Q3 1.98 1.57 2003:Q4 1.96 0.38 2004:Q1 1.97 0.64 2004:Q2 1.44 0.75 2004:Q3 0.59 0.40 2004:Q4 0.47 0.22 2005:Q1 0.53 0.17 2005:Q2 1.01 0.13 2005:Q3 1.44 0.27 2005:Q4 1.30 0.06 2006:Q1 1.64 0.24 2006:Q2 1.33 0.04 2006:Q3 0.82 0.00 2006:Q4 0.52 0.15 2007:Q1 0.09 0.38 2007:Q2 0.03 0.43 2007:Q3 0.06 0.73 2007:Q4 0.33 0.47 2008:Q1 0.81 0.39 2008:Q2 1.30 1.14 2008:Q3 0.96 3.32 2008:Q4 0.56 7.51 2009:Q1 1.72 14.75 2009:Q2 1.61 21.32 2009:Q3 1.96 21.26 2009:Q4 2.39 15.92 2010:Q1 1.63 6.90 2010:Q2 1.61 1.23 Period Idiosyncratic dispersion Cyclical dispersion 2010:Q3 1.58 0.46 2010:Q4 1.41 0.16 Bottomleft panel Percent of Mortgages with Negative Equity Period Percent 2006 0.92 2007 3.78 2008 13.64 2009 20.71 2010 19.75 Note. Negative equity percentage likely understated because of incomplete data on junior liens. Bottomright panel Permanent Job Losers Percent of employment Period Stock Rate January 1970 1.01 ND February 1970 1.12 ND March 1970 1.18 ND April 1970 1.25 ND May 1970 1.47 ND June 1970 1.42 ND July 1970 1.43 ND August 1970 1.62 ND September 1970 1.59 ND October 1970 1.71 ND November 1970 1.83 ND December 1970 1.95 ND January 1971 1.98 ND February 1971 2.01 ND March 1971 1.92 ND April 1971 2.00 ND May 1971 2.06 ND June 1971 2.04 ND July 1971 2.09 ND August 1971 2.08 ND September 1971 1.92 ND October 1971 1.93 ND November 1971 2.04 ND December 1971 1.95 ND January 1972 1.95 ND February 1972 1.86 ND March 1972 1.90 ND April 1972 1.80 ND May 1972 2.00 ND June 1972 1.87 ND Period Stock Rate July 1972 1.86 ND August 1972 2.00 ND September 1972 1.89 ND October 1972 1.81 ND November 1972 1.68 ND December 1972 1.68 ND January 1973 1.57 ND February 1973 1.48 ND March 1973 1.43 ND April 1973 1.42 ND May 1973 1.31 ND June 1973 1.49 ND July 1973 1.41 ND August 1973 1.38 ND September 1973 1.47 ND October 1973 1.32 ND November 1973 1.42 ND December 1973 1.49 ND January 1974 1.63 ND February 1974 1.54 ND March 1974 1.52 ND April 1974 1.56 ND May 1974 1.55 ND June 1974 1.56 ND July 1974 1.62 ND August 1974 1.67 ND September 1974 1.81 ND October 1974 1.86 ND November 1974 2.12 ND December 1974 2.32 ND January 1975 2.87 ND February 1975 2.85 ND March 1975 3.01 ND April 1975 3.12 ND May 1975 3.35 ND June 1975 3.27 ND July 1975 3.36 ND August 1975 3.32 ND September 1975 3.42 ND October 1975 3.20 ND November 1975 3.27 ND December 1975 3.06 ND January 1976 3.13 ND February 1976 2.92 ND March 1976 2.99 ND April 1976 2.91 ND May 1976 2.85 ND June 1976 3.01 0.66 Period Stock Rate July 1976 2.99 0.78 August 1976 2.91 0.70 September 1976 2.84 0.76 October 1976 2.93 0.74 November 1976 2.97 0.73 December 1976 2.97 0.72 January 1977 2.80 0.76 February 1977 2.79 0.70 March 1977 2.66 0.74 April 1977 2.54 0.73 May 1977 2.50 0.68 June 1977 2.43 0.72 July 1977 2.38 0.69 August 1977 2.44 0.71 September 1977 2.43 0.69 October 1977 2.31 0.65 November 1977 2.37 0.68 December 1977 2.19 0.65 January 1978 2.17 0.65 February 1978 2.07 0.69 March 1978 2.07 0.67 April 1978 2.06 0.68 May 1978 2.00 0.68 June 1978 1.85 0.62 July 1978 1.95 0.67 August 1978 1.87 0.62 September 1978 1.78 0.59 October 1978 1.91 0.66 November 1978 1.74 0.62 December 1978 1.85 0.66 January 1979 1.81 0.60 February 1979 1.84 0.62 March 1979 1.80 0.60 April 1979 1.77 0.61 May 1979 1.69 0.58 June 1979 1.62 0.62 July 1979 1.81 0.59 August 1979 1.82 0.66 September 1979 1.83 0.60 October 1979 1.93 0.64 November 1979 1.85 0.65 December 1979 1.88 0.63 January 1980 2.07 0.69 February 1980 2.00 0.65 March 1980 2.06 0.68 April 1980 2.27 0.73 May 1980 2.44 0.83 June 1980 2.48 0.75 Period Stock Rate July 1980 2.73 0.80 August 1980 2.71 0.83 September 1980 2.70 0.78 October 1980 2.67 0.74 November 1980 2.84 0.75 December 1980 2.77 0.75 January 1981 2.72 0.72 February 1981 2.78 0.77 March 1981 2.63 0.78 April 1981 2.60 0.76 May 1981 2.68 0.81 June 1981 2.80 0.86 July 1981 2.65 0.77 August 1981 2.84 0.79 September 1981 2.97 0.86 October 1981 2.89 0.85 November 1981 3.06 0.90 December 1981 3.29 0.96 January 1982 3.48 1.01 February 1982 3.48 0.99 March 1982 3.77 1.03 April 1982 3.91 0.99 May 1982 3.98 1.03 June 1982 4.12 1.07 July 1982 4.25 1.00 August 1982 4.18 1.03 September 1982 4.37 1.12 October 1982 4.83 1.20 November 1982 4.93 1.11 December 1982 4.83 1.03 January 1983 4.73 0.91 February 1983 4.85 1.01 March 1983 4.90 0.97 April 1983 4.78 0.95 May 1983 4.84 0.95 June 1983 4.68 0.96 July 1983 4.42 0.98 August 1983 4.40 0.95 September 1983 4.25 1.06 October 1983 4.05 0.96 November 1983 3.81 0.85 December 1983 3.66 0.89 January 1984 3.49 0.87 February 1984 3.37 0.87 March 1984 3.25 0.88 April 1984 3.24 0.85 May 1984 2.99 0.71 June 1984 2.91 0.72 Period Stock Rate July 1984 3.13 0.90 August 1984 2.90 0.82 September 1984 2.90 0.82 October 1984 2.96 0.83 November 1984 2.93 0.83 December 1984 2.97 0.85 January 1985 2.91 0.87 February 1985 2.84 0.82 March 1985 2.80 0.84 April 1985 2.79 0.82 May 1985 2.66 0.71 June 1985 2.80 0.83 July 1985 2.96 0.87 August 1985 2.81 0.87 September 1985 2.72 0.79 October 1985 2.70 0.78 November 1985 2.72 0.79 December 1985 2.65 0.76 January 1986 2.44 0.73 February 1986 2.76 0.81 March 1986 2.81 0.79 April 1986 2.69 0.82 May 1986 2.81 0.84 June 1986 2.93 0.82 July 1986 2.72 0.78 August 1986 2.59 0.76 September 1986 2.73 0.79 October 1986 2.67 0.78 November 1986 2.60 0.73 December 1986 2.54 0.78 January 1987 2.56 0.77 February 1987 2.54 0.74 March 1987 2.53 0.75 April 1987 2.44 0.71 May 1987 2.37 0.69 June 1987 2.40 0.63 July 1987 2.31 0.69 August 1987 2.22 0.69 September 1987 2.20 0.64 October 1987 2.23 0.68 November 1987 2.12 0.66 December 1987 2.03 0.64 January 1988 2.00 0.61 February 1988 2.01 0.59 March 1988 1.99 0.56 April 1988 1.81 0.61 May 1988 2.11 0.72 June 1988 1.96 0.63 Period Stock Rate July 1988 1.95 0.60 August 1988 1.93 0.60 September 1988 1.95 0.65 October 1988 1.86 0.60 November 1988 1.89 0.64 December 1988 1.92 0.64 January 1989 1.93 0.66 February 1989 1.79 0.67 March 1989 1.76 0.60 April 1989 1.79 0.65 May 1989 1.67 0.59 June 1989 1.70 0.61 July 1989 1.79 0.60 August 1989 1.78 0.58 September 1989 1.78 0.60 October 1989 1.90 0.66 November 1989 1.83 0.62 December 1989 1.83 0.63 January 1990 1.80 0.56 February 1990 1.78 0.64 March 1990 1.81 0.65 April 1990 1.85 0.67 May 1990 1.84 0.64 June 1990 1.90 0.65 July 1990 1.93 0.66 August 1990 2.08 0.76 September 1990 2.08 0.64 October 1990 2.21 0.69 November 1990 2.33 0.81 December 1990 2.32 0.70 January 1991 2.58 0.77 February 1991 2.56 0.74 March 1991 2.81 0.78 April 1991 2.74 0.75 May 1991 2.82 0.79 June 1991 2.91 0.78 July 1991 3.01 0.78 August 1991 2.95 0.85 September 1991 3.12 0.84 October 1991 3.03 0.81 November 1991 3.08 0.82 December 1991 3.23 0.87 January 1992 3.23 0.75 February 1992 3.47 0.82 March 1992 3.51 0.85 April 1992 3.48 0.78 May 1992 3.69 0.87 June 1992 3.65 0.85 Period Stock Rate July 1992 3.58 0.79 August 1992 3.53 0.78 September 1992 3.40 0.80 October 1992 3.53 0.84 November 1992 3.42 0.75 December 1992 3.31 0.74 January 1993 3.33 0.75 February 1993 3.19 0.75 March 1993 3.23 0.74 April 1993 3.28 0.88 May 1993 3.05 0.68 June 1993 3.18 0.70 July 1993 3.13 0.73 August 1993 3.06 0.71 September 1993 2.96 0.68 October 1993 2.92 0.69 November 1993 2.88 0.65 December 1993 2.81 0.75 January 1994 2.62 0.71 February 1994 2.56 0.55 March 1994 2.53 0.62 April 1994 2.38 0.65 May 1994 2.24 0.51 June 1994 2.28 0.63 July 1994 2.29 0.65 August 1994 2.18 0.63 September 1994 2.23 0.61 October 1994 2.18 0.55 November 1994 2.12 0.58 December 1994 1.99 0.57 January 1995 2.03 0.59 February 1995 1.89 0.47 March 1995 1.89 0.60 April 1995 1.95 0.54 May 1995 2.07 0.59 June 1995 1.89 0.59 July 1995 1.92 0.56 August 1995 1.92 0.57 September 1995 2.01 0.62 October 1995 1.99 0.59 November 1995 1.98 0.61 December 1995 1.97 0.55 January 1996 1.95 0.54 February 1996 1.98 0.59 March 1996 1.96 0.50 April 1996 2.05 0.57 May 1996 1.86 0.58 June 1996 1.86 0.53 Period Stock Rate July 1996 1.86 0.53 August 1996 1.68 0.49 September 1996 1.74 0.47 October 1996 1.73 0.47 November 1996 1.82 0.56 December 1996 1.72 0.52 January 1997 1.77 0.56 February 1997 1.72 0.52 March 1997 1.68 0.50 April 1997 1.61 0.45 May 1997 1.58 0.48 June 1997 1.68 0.56 July 1997 1.56 0.39 August 1997 1.64 0.49 September 1997 1.62 0.49 October 1997 1.48 0.50 November 1997 1.59 0.48 December 1997 1.58 0.50 January 1998 1.52 0.51 February 1998 1.52 0.52 March 1998 1.51 0.53 April 1998 1.49 0.55 May 1998 1.53 0.53 June 1998 1.50 0.52 July 1998 1.44 0.52 August 1998 1.46 0.51 September 1998 1.47 0.51 October 1998 1.48 0.53 November 1998 1.48 0.49 December 1998 1.48 0.58 January 1999 1.39 0.47 February 1999 1.41 0.50 March 1999 1.32 0.50 April 1999 1.38 0.55 May 1999 1.38 0.50 June 1999 1.33 0.51 July 1999 1.38 0.51 August 1999 1.32 0.53 September 1999 1.25 0.52 October 1999 1.29 0.53 November 1999 1.24 0.43 December 1999 1.22 0.53 January 2000 1.30 0.51 February 2000 1.32 0.48 March 2000 1.25 0.52 April 2000 1.16 0.43 May 2000 1.16 0.48 June 2000 1.07 0.45 Period Stock Rate July 2000 1.18 0.49 August 2000 1.26 0.48 September 2000 1.21 0.52 October 2000 1.20 0.44 November 2000 1.18 0.44 December 2000 1.19 0.43 January 2001 1.29 0.45 February 2001 1.41 0.60 March 2001 1.48 0.53 April 2001 1.49 0.62 May 2001 1.53 0.63 June 2001 1.67 0.66 July 2001 1.72 0.53 August 2001 1.77 0.64 September 2001 1.80 0.68 October 2001 2.20 0.74 November 2001 2.41 0.77 December 2001 2.45 0.71 January 2002 2.46 0.77 February 2002 2.43 0.74 March 2002 2.46 0.71 April 2002 2.56 0.66 May 2002 2.58 0.64 June 2002 2.61 0.66 July 2002 2.52 0.62 August 2002 2.50 0.68 September 2002 2.54 0.66 October 2002 2.62 0.65 November 2002 2.68 0.71 December 2002 2.68 0.67 January 2003 2.63 0.69 February 2003 2.66 0.67 March 2003 2.63 0.66 April 2003 2.67 0.67 May 2003 2.80 0.70 June 2003 2.78 0.69 July 2003 2.79 0.67 August 2003 2.83 0.73 September 2003 2.77 0.62 October 2003 2.70 0.63 November 2003 2.60 0.59 December 2003 2.50 0.63 January 2004 2.42 0.59 February 2004 2.33 0.56 March 2004 2.56 0.60 April 2004 2.41 0.62 May 2004 2.33 0.62 June 2004 2.24 0.58 Period Stock Rate July 2004 2.27 0.63 August 2004 2.15 0.60 September 2004 2.22 0.65 October 2004 2.24 0.63 November 2004 2.22 0.60 December 2004 2.19 0.62 January 2005 2.18 0.57 February 2005 2.10 0.59 March 2005 2.01 0.48 April 2005 1.99 0.57 May 2005 1.93 0.55 June 2005 1.88 0.56 July 2005 1.86 0.57 August 2005 1.79 0.53 September 2005 1.91 0.59 October 2005 1.83 0.58 November 2005 1.84 0.51 December 2005 1.79 0.51 January 2006 1.74 0.53 February 2006 1.73 0.49 March 2006 1.73 0.56 April 2006 1.82 0.56 May 2006 1.76 0.53 June 2006 1.63 0.56 July 2006 1.65 0.53 August 2006 1.65 0.51 September 2006 1.62 0.50 October 2006 1.50 0.46 November 2006 1.57 0.49 December 2006 1.56 0.57 January 2007 1.63 0.50 February 2007 1.61 0.52 March 2007 1.58 0.46 April 2007 1.61 0.46 May 2007 1.64 0.49 June 2007 1.71 0.52 July 2007 1.82 0.51 August 2007 1.83 0.57 September 2007 1.83 0.54 October 2007 1.83 0.53 November 2007 1.84 0.53 December 2007 1.99 0.58 January 2008 1.89 0.53 February 2008 1.98 0.58 March 2008 2.08 0.62 April 2008 2.02 0.53 May 2008 2.18 0.74 June 2008 2.26 0.61 Period Stock Rate July 2008 2.38 0.61 August 2008 2.55 0.73 September 2008 2.71 0.68 October 2008 3.05 0.81 November 2008 3.35 0.89 December 2008 3.60 0.82 January 2009 4.17 1.14 February 2009 4.61 0.95 March 2009 4.89 0.95 April 2009 5.13 0.96 May 2009 5.42 0.97 June 2009 5.58 0.89 July 2009 5.55 0.87 August 2009 5.76 0.82 September 2009 5.87 0.83 October 2009 6.05 0.90 November 2009 5.95 0.74 December 2009 5.91 0.82 January 2010 5.66 0.77 February 2010 5.73 0.68 March 2010 5.61 0.66 April 2010 5.65 0.72 May 2010 5.56 0.68 June 2010 5.53 0.73 July 2010 5.63 0.82 August 2010 5.59 0.72 September 2010 5.70 0.87 October 2010 5.59 0.70 November 2010 5.79 0.78 December 2010 5.40 0.65 Note. Rate includes job losers not on layoff, unemployed less than five weeks. Stock includes all job losers not on layoff. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): December 1969November 1970, November 1973March 1975, January 1980July 1980, July 1981 November 1982, July 1990March 1991, March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Exhibit 2 The Beveridge Curve Top panel Using Staff Composite Help Wanted Index 1973:Q4 to 2010:Q4 Period Help wanted index divided by labor force Unemployment rate 1973:Q4 to 1976:Q2 1973:Q4 4.52 4.77 1974:Q1 4.27 5.13 1974:Q2 4.28 5.20 Period Help wanted index divided by labor force Unemployment rate 1974:Q3 3.92 5.63 1974:Q4 3.21 6.60 1975:Q1 2.71 8.27 1975:Q2 2.70 8.87 1975:Q3 2.84 8.47 1975:Q4 2.96 8.30 1976:Q1 3.15 7.73 1976:Q2 3.23 7.57 1979:Q2 4.97 5.70 1979:Q3 4.93 5.87 1979:Q4 4.85 5.97 1980:Q1 4.49 6.30 1980:Q2 3.71 7.33 1980:Q3 3.71 7.67 1980:Q4 3.85 7.40 1981:Q1 3.76 7.43 1981:Q2 3.73 7.40 1981:Q3 3.63 7.40 1981:Q4 3.21 8.23 1982:Q1 2.97 8.83 1982:Q2 2.68 9.43 1982:Q3 2.35 9.90 1982:Q4 2.28 10.67 1983:Q1 2.40 10.37 1983:Q2 2.65 10.13 1983:Q3 2.94 9.37 1983:Q4 3.32 8.53 1990:Q1 3.73 5.30 1990:Q2 3.51 5.33 1990:Q3 3.32 5.70 1990:Q4 2.90 6.13 1991:Q1 2.59 6.60 1991:Q2 2.50 6.83 1991:Q3 2.44 6.87 1991:Q4 2.38 7.10 1992:Q1 2.43 7.37 1992:Q2 2.46 7.60 1992:Q3 2.44 7.63 1992:Q4 2.53 7.37 1993:Q1 2.61 7.13 1993:Q2 2.61 7.07 1993:Q3 2.73 6.80 2000:Q4 3.58 3.90 2001:Q1 3.39 4.23 2001:Q2 2.93 4.40 1979:Q2 to 1983:Q4 1990:Q1 to 1993:Q3 2000:Q4 to 2004:Q2 Period Help wanted index divided by labor force Unemployment rate 2001:Q3 2.69 4.83 2001:Q4 2.31 5.50 2002:Q1 2.40 5.70 2002:Q2 2.42 5.83 2002:Q3 2.30 5.73 2002:Q4 2.20 5.87 2003:Q1 2.29 5.87 2003:Q2 2.15 6.13 2003:Q3 2.25 6.13 2003:Q4 2.34 5.83 2004:Q1 2.50 5.70 2004:Q2 2.54 5.60 2007:Q1 3.14 4.50 2007:Q2 3.16 4.50 2007:Q3 2.96 4.67 2007:Q4 2.86 4.80 2008:Q1 2.87 4.97 2008:Q2 2.65 5.30 2008:Q3 2.55 6.03 2008:Q4 2.35 6.90 2009:Q1 1.86 8.20 2009:Q2 1.78 9.27 2009:Q3 1.79 9.67 2009:Q4 1.84 9.97 2010:Q1 2.10 9.70 2010:Q2 2.16 9.63 2010:Q3 2.20 9.57 2010:Q4 2.26 9.63 2007:Q1 to 2010:Q4 Bottomleft panel Using JOLTS Job Openings 2001:Q1 to 2010:Q4 Period Total nonfarm job openings divided by labor force Unemployment rate Fitted line Fitted curve 2001 to 2007 (black circles on chart) 2001:Q1 3.47 4.23 3.91 4.11 2001:Q2 3.22 4.41 4.33 4.40 2001:Q3 2.98 4.82 4.73 4.71 2001:Q4 2.55 5.54 5.47 5.43 2002:Q1 2.52 5.70 5.53 5.49 2002:Q2 2.42 5.84 5.68 5.67 2002:Q3 2.38 5.73 5.77 5.78 2002:Q4 2.40 5.85 5.72 5.71 2003:Q1 2.34 5.87 5.83 5.86 2003:Q2 2.22 6.15 6.02 6.13 2003:Q3 2.19 6.10 6.09 6.22 2003:Q4 2.26 5.82 5.97 6.05 Total nonfarm job openings divided by labor force Unemployment rate Fitted line Fitted curve 2004:Q1 2.39 5.68 5.74 5.74 2004:Q2 2.45 5.59 5.64 5.62 2004:Q3 2.59 5.43 5.41 5.35 2004:Q4 2.55 5.39 5.46 5.41 2005:Q1 2.63 5.28 5.33 5.27 2005:Q2 2.74 5.11 5.14 5.08 2005:Q3 2.80 4.97 5.04 4.98 2005:Q4 2.93 4.95 4.83 4.79 2006:Q1 2.94 4.72 4.80 4.77 2006:Q2 3.02 4.65 4.67 4.65 2006:Q3 2.94 4.64 4.81 4.77 2006:Q4 3.06 4.45 4.61 4.61 2007:Q1 3.02 4.51 4.67 4.65 2007:Q2 3.07 4.49 4.59 4.59 2007:Q3 2.98 4.67 4.73 4.71 2007:Q4 2.88 4.81 4.92 4.87 2008:Q1 2.69 4.96 5.23 5.16 2008:Q2 2.58 5.32 5.43 5.37 2008:Q3 2.35 6.04 5.81 5.83 2008:Q4 2.08 6.91 6.27 6.51 2009:Q1 1.79 8.21 6.76 7.44 2009:Q2 1.61 9.27 7.06 8.18 2009:Q3 1.59 9.67 7.10 8.27 2009:Q4 1.63 9.99 7.03 8.08 2010:Q1 1.80 9.69 ND ND 2010:Q2 1.97 9.65 ND ND 2010:Q3 2.00 9.58 ND ND October and November 2.14 9.62 ND ND Period 2008 to 2009 (red triangles on chart) 2010 (blue squares on chart) Bottomright panel Issues in Interpretation Deviation is not a measure of an increase in structural unemployment. The shape of the curve. Increases in layoffs that occur during recessions. Counterclockwise loops. Exhibit 3 Models Informing Tealbook Assumptions Topleft panel Job Matching Percent Period 1980:Q1 Actual UE Flows Estimated 27.79 28.34 Period Actual UE Flows Estimated 1980:Q2 26.11 25.67 1980:Q3 25.86 25.31 1980:Q4 26.08 25.87 1981:Q1 25.09 25.65 1981:Q2 25.47 25.60 1981:Q3 24.34 25.39 1981:Q4 24.39 23.76 1982:Q1 22.96 22.75 1982:Q2 21.56 21.65 1982:Q3 21.03 20.51 1982:Q4 19.32 19.90 1983:Q1 19.37 20.38 1983:Q2 20.60 21.15 1983:Q3 21.88 22.29 1983:Q4 22.27 23.71 1984:Q1 24.32 24.84 1984:Q2 24.41 25.68 1984:Q3 24.37 25.83 1984:Q4 23.87 26.11 1985:Q1 26.32 26.15 1985:Q2 25.21 26.23 1985:Q3 25.23 26.32 1985:Q4 24.56 26.40 1986:Q1 26.14 26.34 1986:Q2 25.00 26.11 1986:Q3 24.82 26.35 1986:Q4 26.61 26.67 1987:Q1 26.39 26.96 1987:Q2 27.13 27.63 1987:Q3 27.69 28.24 1987:Q4 28.22 28.51 1988:Q1 27.22 28.59 1988:Q2 30.23 28.94 1988:Q3 29.45 28.86 1988:Q4 27.59 29.08 1989:Q1 30.17 29.13 1989:Q2 29.41 28.79 1989:Q3 29.81 28.39 1989:Q4 30.16 28.25 1990:Q1 30.57 28.21 1990:Q2 28.19 27.64 1990:Q3 26.72 26.70 1990:Q4 26.44 25.13 1991:Q1 25.44 23.81 1991:Q2 25.30 23.32 1991:Q3 24.88 23.10 1991:Q4 23.30 22.70 1992:Q1 23.60 22.59 Period Actual UE Flows Estimated 1992:Q2 22.92 22.47 1992:Q3 22.68 22.38 1992:Q4 23.54 22.83 1993:Q1 23.04 23.26 1993:Q2 23.71 23.34 1993:Q3 23.77 23.92 1993:Q4 24.97 24.52 1994:Q1 25.59 25.08 1994:Q2 26.25 25.81 1994:Q3 27.39 26.17 1994:Q4 28.00 27.09 1995:Q1 28.42 27.11 1995:Q2 27.55 26.50 1995:Q3 28.10 26.74 1995:Q4 27.10 27.00 1996:Q1 27.46 26.89 1996:Q2 27.07 26.93 1996:Q3 28.65 27.26 1996:Q4 27.86 27.42 1997:Q1 29.36 27.81 1997:Q2 29.33 28.10 1997:Q3 28.62 28.55 1997:Q4 30.15 29.15 1998:Q1 29.91 29.50 1998:Q2 31.00 29.97 1998:Q3 30.93 29.62 1998:Q4 30.74 29.76 1999:Q1 31.89 30.57 1999:Q2 30.44 30.36 1999:Q3 31.80 30.24 1999:Q4 33.14 30.78 2000:Q1 33.02 31.36 2000:Q2 32.10 31.15 2000:Q3 32.44 30.59 2000:Q4 31.52 30.72 2001:Q1 31.05 29.57 2001:Q2 31.14 27.98 2001:Q3 29.43 26.62 2001:Q4 27.00 24.41 2002:Q1 26.93 24.47 2002:Q2 24.56 24.35 2002:Q3 25.45 24.14 2002:Q4 23.85 23.68 2003:Q1 23.82 23.95 2003:Q2 23.69 23.21 2003:Q3 23.21 23.55 2003:Q4 24.55 24.18 2004:Q1 24.03 24.82 Period Actual UE Flows Estimated 2004:Q2 25.20 25.06 2004:Q3 25.76 25.18 2004:Q4 26.62 25.58 2005:Q1 25.97 26.73 2005:Q2 26.10 26.83 2005:Q3 26.56 26.97 2005:Q4 26.48 27.23 2006:Q1 26.99 28.04 2006:Q2 28.33 27.68 2006:Q3 29.01 27.60 2006:Q4 28.81 28.35 2007:Q1 29.62 28.43 2007:Q2 27.57 28.55 2007:Q3 27.25 27.69 2007:Q4 26.88 27.16 2008:Q1 26.34 26.92 2008:Q2 25.33 25.76 2008:Q3 23.75 24.51 2008:Q4 21.14 23.03 2009:Q1 18.72 20.41 2009:Q2 17.53 19.43 2009:Q3 17.03 19.22 2009:Q4 16.03 19.18 2010:Q1 16.95 20.12 2010:Q2 17.06 20.31 2010:Q3 16.74 20.45 2010:Q4 17.14 20.59 Note. Actual and estimated monthly flow rates from unemployment to employment. Estimated values are from a regression of the UE flow rates on the log of the ratio of vacancies to unemployment. Topright panel Contribution of Matching Efficiency to the Unemployment Rate Period Percentage points 1980:Q1 0.13 1980:Q2 0.01 1980:Q3 0.03 1980:Q4 0.03 1981:Q1 0.15 1981:Q2 0.08 1981:Q3 0.23 1981:Q4 0.05 1982:Q1 0.02 1982:Q2 0.08 1982:Q3 0.04 1982:Q4 0.21 1983:Q1 0.30 1983:Q2 0.18 1983:Q3 0.15 Period Percentage points 1983:Q4 0.33 1984:Q1 0.15 1984:Q2 0.27 1984:Q3 0.30 1984:Q4 0.43 1985:Q1 0.04 1985:Q2 0.23 1985:Q3 0.24 1985:Q4 0.36 1986:Q1 0.10 1986:Q2 0.25 1986:Q3 0.31 1986:Q4 0.08 1987:Q1 0.15 1987:Q2 0.14 1987:Q3 0.15 1987:Q4 0.11 1988:Q1 0.26 1988:Q2 0.08 1988:Q3 0.00 1988:Q4 0.27 1989:Q1 0.05 1989:Q2 0.00 1989:Q3 0.09 1989:Q4 0.15 1990:Q1 0.34 1990:Q2 0.01 1990:Q3 0.06 1990:Q4 0.13 1991:Q1 0.20 1991:Q2 0.26 1991:Q3 0.22 1991:Q4 0.04 1992:Q1 0.11 1992:Q2 0.02 1992:Q3 0.01 1992:Q4 0.06 1993:Q1 0.11 1993:Q2 0.00 1993:Q3 0.09 1993:Q4 0.00 1994:Q1 0.04 1994:Q2 0.02 1994:Q3 0.13 1994:Q4 0.08 1995:Q1 0.13 1995:Q2 0.10 1995:Q3 0.14 Period Percentage points 1995:Q4 0.03 1996:Q1 0.03 1996:Q2 0.02 1996:Q3 0.14 1996:Q4 0.02 1997:Q1 0.16 1997:Q2 0.11 1997:Q3 0.03 1997:Q4 0.08 1998:Q1 0.02 1998:Q2 0.08 1998:Q3 0.12 1998:Q4 0.08 1999:Q1 0.11 1999:Q2 0.02 1999:Q3 0.14 1999:Q4 0.21 2000:Q1 0.15 2000:Q2 0.08 2000:Q3 0.17 2000:Q4 0.06 2001:Q1 0.14 2001:Q2 0.33 2001:Q3 0.32 2001:Q4 0.34 2002:Q1 0.32 2002:Q2 0.00 2002:Q3 0.17 2002:Q4 0.00 2003:Q1 0.05 2003:Q2 0.05 2003:Q3 0.08 2003:Q4 0.03 2004:Q1 0.15 2004:Q2 0.00 2004:Q3 0.06 2004:Q4 0.12 2005:Q1 0.13 2005:Q2 0.12 2005:Q3 0.07 2005:Q4 0.12 2006:Q1 0.15 2006:Q2 0.06 2006:Q3 0.15 2006:Q4 0.04 2007:Q1 0.12 2007:Q2 0.14 2007:Q3 0.07 Period Percentage points 2007:Q4 0.05 2008:Q1 0.10 2008:Q2 0.08 2008:Q3 0.15 2008:Q4 0.38 2009:Q1 0.42 2009:Q2 0.51 2009:Q3 0.60 2009:Q4 0.88 2010:Q1 0.83 2010:Q2 0.84 2010:Q3 0.97 2010:Q4 0.89 Note. Average contribution during 19802007 is normalized to zero. Middleleft panel An Unobserved Components Model The model treats the NAIRU and other trends as unobserved components. Related through such macroeconomic relationships as the Phillips Curve and Okun's Law. Variant allows for the possibility that the Phillips curve flattened in the mid1980s. Also allows the NAIRU to be more variable than in previous episodes. Middleright panel Model NAIRU Period Percent 1963:Q2 5.24 1963:Q3 5.19 1963:Q4 5.29 1964:Q1 5.34 1964:Q2 5.33 1964:Q3 5.28 1964:Q4 5.34 1965:Q1 5.46 1965:Q2 5.43 1965:Q3 5.35 1965:Q4 5.40 1966:Q1 5.53 1966:Q2 5.66 1966:Q3 5.64 1966:Q4 5.54 1967:Q1 5.47 1967:Q2 5.39 1967:Q3 5.31 1967:Q4 5.33 1968:Q1 5.26 1968:Q2 5.25 1968:Q3 5.33 Period Percent 1968:Q4 5.34 1969:Q1 5.41 1969:Q2 5.45 1969:Q3 5.50 1969:Q4 5.37 1970:Q1 5.44 1970:Q2 5.52 1970:Q3 5.54 1970:Q4 5.67 1971:Q1 5.62 1971:Q2 5.58 1971:Q3 5.66 1971:Q4 5.69 1972:Q1 5.72 1972:Q2 5.76 1972:Q3 5.85 1972:Q4 5.89 1973:Q1 6.00 1973:Q2 6.16 1973:Q3 6.21 1973:Q4 6.11 1974:Q1 6.19 1974:Q2 6.06 1974:Q3 5.97 1974:Q4 5.96 1975:Q1 6.25 1975:Q2 6.26 1975:Q3 6.07 1975:Q4 6.14 1976:Q1 6.04 1976:Q2 6.03 1976:Q3 6.14 1976:Q4 6.21 1977:Q1 6.20 1977:Q2 6.20 1977:Q3 6.29 1977:Q4 6.24 1978:Q1 6.22 1978:Q2 6.30 1978:Q3 6.52 1978:Q4 6.58 1979:Q1 6.59 1979:Q2 6.47 1979:Q3 6.50 1979:Q4 6.46 1980:Q1 6.42 1980:Q2 6.63 1980:Q3 6.62 Period Percent 1980:Q4 6.50 1981:Q1 6.58 1981:Q2 6.47 1981:Q3 6.37 1981:Q4 6.60 1982:Q1 6.66 1982:Q2 6.72 1982:Q3 6.80 1982:Q4 6.98 1983:Q1 6.83 1983:Q2 6.90 1983:Q3 6.91 1983:Q4 6.73 1984:Q1 6.61 1984:Q2 6.57 1984:Q3 6.64 1984:Q4 6.60 1985:Q1 6.62 1985:Q2 6.63 1985:Q3 6.59 1985:Q4 6.46 1986:Q1 6.44 1986:Q2 6.51 1986:Q3 6.38 1986:Q4 6.32 1987:Q1 6.25 1987:Q2 6.14 1987:Q3 6.05 1987:Q4 6.04 1988:Q1 6.03 1988:Q2 5.97 1988:Q3 6.06 1988:Q4 6.08 1989:Q1 5.99 1989:Q2 5.94 1989:Q3 5.92 1989:Q4 5.88 1990:Q1 5.67 1990:Q2 5.56 1990:Q3 5.55 1990:Q4 5.50 1991:Q1 5.46 1991:Q2 5.40 1991:Q3 5.26 1991:Q4 5.20 1992:Q1 5.20 1992:Q2 5.24 1992:Q3 5.23 Period Percent 1992:Q4 5.19 1993:Q1 5.10 1993:Q2 5.12 1993:Q3 5.04 1993:Q4 5.02 1994:Q1 5.08 1994:Q2 5.03 1994:Q3 5.05 1994:Q4 5.00 1995:Q1 4.96 1995:Q2 5.08 1995:Q3 5.12 1995:Q4 5.12 1996:Q1 5.09 1996:Q2 5.13 1996:Q3 5.14 1996:Q4 5.27 1997:Q1 5.28 1997:Q2 5.21 1997:Q3 5.22 1997:Q4 5.20 1998:Q1 5.24 1998:Q2 5.16 1998:Q3 5.29 1998:Q4 5.33 1999:Q1 5.35 1999:Q2 5.38 1999:Q3 5.43 1999:Q4 5.42 2000:Q1 5.44 2000:Q2 5.39 2000:Q3 5.44 2000:Q4 5.34 2001:Q1 5.36 2001:Q2 5.30 2001:Q3 5.26 2001:Q4 5.37 2002:Q1 5.38 2002:Q2 5.34 2002:Q3 5.27 2002:Q4 5.28 2003:Q1 5.21 2003:Q2 5.32 2003:Q3 5.35 2003:Q4 5.29 2004:Q1 5.32 2004:Q2 5.35 2004:Q3 5.34 Period Percent 2004:Q4 5.36 2005:Q1 5.37 2005:Q2 5.32 2005:Q3 5.30 2005:Q4 5.39 2006:Q1 5.37 2006:Q2 5.39 2006:Q3 5.42 2006:Q4 5.39 2007:Q1 5.39 2007:Q2 5.34 2007:Q3 5.38 2007:Q4 5.40 2008:Q1 5.36 2008:Q2 5.32 2008:Q3 5.30 2008:Q4 5.38 2009:Q1 5.67 2009:Q2 5.98 2009:Q3 5.88 2009:Q4 6.12 2010:Q1 6.02 2010:Q2 6.15 2010:Q3 6.03 2010:Q4 6.19 Bottomleft panel Tealbook NAIRU Percent Period Unemployment rate NAIRU* Effective NAIRU** 1960:Q1 5.32 5.22 5.22 1960:Q2 5.38 5.22 5.22 1960:Q3 5.70 5.22 5.22 1960:Q4 6.40 5.22 5.22 1961:Q1 6.92 5.22 5.25 1961:Q2 7.12 5.22 5.53 1961:Q3 6.90 5.22 5.39 1961:Q4 6.32 5.22 5.32 1962:Q1 5.77 5.22 5.29 1962:Q2 5.63 5.22 5.27 1962:Q3 5.69 5.22 5.24 1962:Q4 5.65 5.22 5.22 1963:Q1 5.92 5.22 5.22 1963:Q2 5.83 5.22 5.22 1963:Q3 5.64 5.22 5.22 1963:Q4 5.72 5.22 5.22 1964:Q1 5.61 5.22 5.22 1964:Q2 5.37 5.22 5.22 Period Unemployment rate NAIRU* Effective NAIRU** 1964:Q3 5.14 5.22 5.22 1964:Q4 5.11 5.22 5.22 1965:Q1 5.02 5.22 5.22 1965:Q2 4.81 5.22 5.22 1965:Q3 4.50 5.22 5.22 1965:Q4 4.25 5.22 5.22 1966:Q1 4.00 5.22 5.22 1966:Q2 3.96 5.23 5.23 1966:Q3 3.90 5.23 5.23 1966:Q4 3.84 5.23 5.23 1967:Q1 3.96 5.23 5.23 1967:Q2 3.96 5.23 5.23 1967:Q3 3.94 5.24 5.24 1967:Q4 4.07 5.24 5.24 1968:Q1 3.88 5.25 5.25 1968:Q2 3.69 5.26 5.26 1968:Q3 3.66 5.27 5.27 1968:Q4 3.55 5.28 5.28 1969:Q1 3.53 5.30 5.30 1969:Q2 3.58 5.31 5.31 1969:Q3 3.74 5.33 5.33 1969:Q4 3.74 5.35 5.35 1970:Q1 4.31 5.38 5.38 1970:Q2 4.90 5.41 5.41 1970:Q3 5.32 5.44 5.44 1970:Q4 5.95 5.47 5.47 1971:Q1 6.07 5.50 5.52 1971:Q2 6.06 5.53 5.62 1971:Q3 6.13 5.57 5.66 1971:Q4 6.10 5.61 5.69 1972:Q1 5.92 5.65 5.71 1972:Q2 5.81 5.69 5.75 1972:Q3 5.73 5.73 5.78 1972:Q4 5.45 5.76 5.81 1973:Q1 5.10 5.80 5.82 1973:Q2 5.04 5.84 5.85 1973:Q3 4.94 5.88 5.89 1973:Q4 4.92 5.91 5.93 1974:Q1 5.23 5.95 5.99 1974:Q2 5.31 5.98 6.02 1974:Q3 5.73 6.01 6.06 1974:Q4 6.70 6.04 6.10 1975:Q1 8.36 6.07 6.28 1975:Q2 8.97 6.10 6.36 1975:Q3 8.61 6.13 6.41 1975:Q4 8.40 6.15 6.37 1976:Q1 7.87 6.17 6.41 1976:Q2 7.67 6.20 6.42 Period Unemployment rate NAIRU* Effective NAIRU** 1976:Q3 7.84 6.22 6.48 1976:Q4 7.88 6.25 6.47 1977:Q1 7.63 6.28 6.47 1977:Q2 7.25 6.30 6.45 1977:Q3 7.01 6.33 6.48 1977:Q4 6.75 6.36 6.49 1978:Q1 6.47 6.39 6.48 1978:Q2 6.14 6.42 6.48 1978:Q3 6.17 6.45 6.48 1978:Q4 6.03 6.48 6.50 1979:Q1 6.02 6.52 6.53 1979:Q2 5.86 6.55 6.57 1979:Q3 6.01 6.59 6.60 1979:Q4 6.08 6.62 6.63 1980:Q1 6.44 6.66 6.67 1980:Q2 7.47 6.69 6.73 1980:Q3 7.83 6.72 6.81 1980:Q4 7.55 6.75 6.87 1981:Q1 7.58 6.78 6.89 1981:Q2 7.55 6.81 6.88 1981:Q3 7.57 6.84 6.87 1981:Q4 8.40 6.87 6.88 1982:Q1 9.00 6.89 6.93 1982:Q2 9.58 6.92 7.04 1982:Q3 10.10 6.94 7.05 1982:Q4 10.83 6.95 7.20 1983:Q1 10.56 6.96 7.27 1983:Q2 10.26 6.97 7.36 1983:Q3 9.53 6.98 7.17 1983:Q4 8.71 6.97 7.13 1984:Q1 8.05 6.97 7.08 1984:Q2 7.65 6.96 7.03 1984:Q3 7.63 6.95 7.01 1984:Q4 7.46 6.93 6.99 1985:Q1 7.46 6.91 6.97 1985:Q2 7.47 6.88 6.92 1985:Q3 7.40 6.85 6.85 1985:Q4 7.24 6.82 6.82 1986:Q1 7.18 6.78 6.78 1986:Q2 7.35 6.73 6.74 1986:Q3 7.17 6.69 6.69 1986:Q4 7.01 6.63 6.64 1987:Q1 6.80 6.58 6.58 1987:Q2 6.46 6.52 6.52 1987:Q3 6.20 6.45 6.45 1987:Q4 6.06 6.39 6.39 1988:Q1 5.92 6.32 6.32 1988:Q2 5.68 6.25 6.25 Period Unemployment rate NAIRU* Effective NAIRU** 1988:Q3 5.69 6.18 6.18 1988:Q4 5.55 6.10 6.10 1989:Q1 5.41 6.02 6.02 1989:Q2 5.44 5.94 5.94 1989:Q3 5.48 5.86 5.86 1989:Q4 5.58 5.78 5.78 1990:Q1 5.43 5.83 5.83 1990:Q2 5.47 5.77 5.77 1990:Q3 5.82 5.71 5.71 1990:Q4 6.24 5.65 5.65 1991:Q1 6.70 5.60 5.60 1991:Q2 6.95 5.54 5.56 1991:Q3 6.98 5.49 5.49 1991:Q4 7.22 5.43 5.50 1992:Q1 7.50 5.38 5.66 1992:Q2 7.72 5.34 5.63 1992:Q3 7.75 5.29 5.54 1992:Q4 7.53 5.25 5.50 1993:Q1 7.28 5.20 5.46 1993:Q2 7.20 5.16 5.40 1993:Q3 6.93 5.13 5.36 1993:Q4 6.75 5.09 5.28 1994:Q1 6.58 5.16 5.27 1994:Q2 6.19 5.14 5.17 1994:Q3 6.03 5.11 5.11 1994:Q4 5.65 5.09 5.09 1995:Q1 5.51 5.07 5.07 1995:Q2 5.70 5.05 5.05 1995:Q3 5.68 5.03 5.03 1995:Q4 5.60 5.02 5.02 1996:Q1 5.57 5.01 5.01 1996:Q2 5.50 5.00 5.00 1996:Q3 5.29 4.99 4.99 1996:Q4 5.34 4.99 4.99 1997:Q1 5.24 4.98 4.98 1997:Q2 4.99 4.98 4.98 1997:Q3 4.88 4.99 4.99 1997:Q4 4.71 4.98 4.98 1998:Q1 4.63 5.01 5.01 1998:Q2 4.40 5.01 5.01 1998:Q3 4.52 5.01 5.01 1998:Q4 4.42 5.01 5.01 1999:Q1 4.27 5.01 5.01 1999:Q2 4.24 5.01 5.01 1999:Q3 4.23 5.01 5.01 1999:Q4 4.07 5.02 5.02 2000:Q1 4.05 5.00 5.00 2000:Q2 3.95 5.00 5.00 Period Unemployment rate NAIRU* Effective NAIRU** 2000:Q3 4.03 5.00 5.00 2000:Q4 3.92 5.00 5.00 2001:Q1 4.23 5.00 5.00 2001:Q2 4.41 5.00 5.00 2001:Q3 4.81 5.00 5.00 2001:Q4 5.53 5.01 5.01 2002:Q1 5.70 5.00 5.02 2002:Q2 5.84 5.00 5.19 2002:Q3 5.72 5.00 5.17 2002:Q4 5.84 5.00 5.13 2003:Q1 5.87 5.00 5.11 2003:Q2 6.15 5.00 5.13 2003:Q3 6.10 5.00 5.13 2003:Q4 5.81 5.00 5.13 2004:Q1 5.68 5.00 5.06 2004:Q2 5.58 5.00 5.00 2004:Q3 5.43 5.00 5.00 2004:Q4 5.38 5.00 5.00 2005:Q1 5.27 5.00 5.00 2005:Q2 5.10 5.00 5.00 2005:Q3 4.96 5.00 5.00 2005:Q4 4.94 5.00 5.00 2006:Q1 4.71 5.00 5.00 2006:Q2 4.64 5.00 5.00 2006:Q3 4.63 5.00 5.00 2006:Q4 4.44 5.00 5.00 2007:Q1 4.50 5.00 5.00 2007:Q2 4.48 5.00 5.00 2007:Q3 4.65 5.00 5.00 2007:Q4 4.80 5.00 5.00 2008:Q1 4.95 5.00 5.00 2008:Q2 5.31 5.00 5.00 2008:Q3 6.03 5.17 5.30 2008:Q4 6.91 5.33 5.48 2009:Q1 8.22 5.50 5.76 2009:Q2 9.28 5.67 6.03 2009:Q3 9.68 5.83 6.36 2009:Q4 10.00 6.00 6.61 2010:Q1 9.69 6.00 6.75 2010:Q2 9.65 6.00 6.66 2010:Q3 9.58 6.00 6.65 2010:Q4 9.62 6.00 6.59 2011:Q1 9.46 6.00 6.58 2011:Q2 9.34 6.00 6.56 2011:Q3 9.14 6.00 6.55 2011:Q4 8.93 6.00 6.54 2012:Q1 8.72 6.00 6.48 Forecast Period Unemployment rate NAIRU* Effective NAIRU** 2012:Q2 8.43 6.00 6.37 2012:Q3 8.13 6.00 6.25 2012:Q4 7.84 6.00 6.15 2013:Q1 7.60 5.94 5.94 2013:Q2 7.38 5.88 5.88 2013:Q3 7.17 5.81 5.81 2013:Q4 6.96 5.75 5.75 2014:Q1 6.73 5.69 5.69 2014:Q2 6.49 5.63 5.63 2014:Q3 6.23 5.56 5.56 2014:Q4 5.99 5.50 5.50 2015:Q1 5.79 5.44 5.44 2015:Q2 5.61 5.38 5.38 2015:Q3 5.46 5.31 5.31 2015:Q4 5.31 5.25 5.25 As shown in the chart, when unemployment rate is above effective NAIRU, the region between them is shaded gray and is labeled "Labor market slack." When unemployment rate is below NAIRU, the region between them is shaded light green. * Staff estimate. Return to table ** Includes emergency unemployment compensation and statefederal extended benefits programs. Return to table Bottomright panel Duration of Unemployment Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1966 0.39 ND February 1966 0.36 ND March 1966 0.36 ND April 1966 0.33 ND May 1966 0.38 ND June 1966 0.30 ND July 1966 0.28 ND August 1966 0.27 ND September 1966 0.27 ND October 1966 0.29 ND November 1966 0.26 ND December 1966 0.27 ND January 1967 0.26 ND February 1967 0.26 ND March 1967 0.24 ND April 1967 0.23 ND May 1967 0.20 ND June 1967 0.19 ND July 1967 0.19 4.5 August 1967 0.26 4.7 September 1967 0.21 4.6 October 1967 0.23 4.9 November 1967 0.23 4.7 December 1967 0.25 4.8 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1968 0.24 5.1 February 1968 0.23 4.5 March 1968 0.23 4.1 April 1968 0.19 4.6 May 1968 0.17 4.4 June 1968 0.20 4.4 July 1968 0.20 4.5 August 1968 0.19 4.2 September 1968 0.17 4.6 October 1968 0.17 4.8 November 1968 0.17 4.4 December 1968 0.20 4.4 January 1969 0.16 4.4 February 1969 0.14 4.9 March 1969 0.15 4.0 April 1969 0.17 4.0 May 1969 0.16 4.2 June 1969 0.15 4.4 July 1969 0.20 4.4 August 1969 0.16 4.4 September 1969 0.18 4.7 October 1969 0.17 4.5 November 1969 0.18 4.8 December 1969 0.16 4.6 January 1970 0.17 4.6 February 1970 0.20 4.5 March 1970 0.22 4.6 April 1970 0.24 4.1 May 1970 0.28 4.7 June 1970 0.27 4.9 July 1970 0.28 5.1 August 1970 0.30 5.4 September 1970 0.34 5.2 October 1970 0.31 5.2 November 1970 0.40 5.6 December 1970 0.46 5.9 January 1971 0.51 6.2 February 1971 0.54 6.3 March 1971 0.54 6.4 April 1971 0.54 6.5 May 1971 0.60 6.7 June 1971 0.65 5.7 July 1971 0.67 6.2 August 1971 0.65 6.4 September 1971 0.66 5.8 October 1971 0.70 6.5 November 1971 0.68 6.4 December 1971 0.68 6.2 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1972 0.69 6.2 February 1972 0.76 6.6 March 1972 0.73 6.6 April 1972 0.78 6.7 May 1972 0.67 6.6 June 1972 0.63 5.4 July 1972 0.60 6.1 August 1972 0.61 6.0 September 1972 0.63 5.6 October 1972 0.60 5.7 November 1972 0.54 5.7 December 1972 0.52 6.1 January 1973 0.47 5.7 February 1973 0.42 5.2 March 1973 0.44 5.5 April 1973 0.38 5.0 May 1973 0.39 4.9 June 1973 0.36 5.0 July 1973 0.31 5.2 August 1973 0.37 4.9 September 1973 0.33 5.4 October 1973 0.37 5.5 November 1973 0.39 5.1 December 1973 0.36 4.7 January 1974 0.36 5.0 February 1974 0.37 5.1 March 1974 0.36 4.8 April 1974 0.39 5.0 May 1974 0.39 4.6 June 1974 0.40 5.3 July 1974 0.42 5.7 August 1974 0.42 5.0 September 1974 0.42 5.3 October 1974 0.43 5.5 November 1974 0.46 5.2 December 1974 0.58 5.7 January 1975 0.67 6.3 February 1975 0.77 7.1 March 1975 0.83 7.2 April 1975 1.03 8.7 May 1975 1.16 9.4 June 1975 1.39 8.8 July 1975 1.49 8.6 August 1975 1.56 9.2 September 1975 1.70 9.2 October 1975 1.54 8.6 November 1975 1.75 9.5 December 1975 1.68 9.0 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1976 1.67 9.0 February 1976 1.61 8.2 March 1976 1.53 8.7 April 1976 1.47 8.2 May 1976 1.27 8.3 June 1976 1.41 7.8 July 1976 1.29 7.7 August 1976 1.32 7.9 September 1976 1.25 7.8 October 1976 1.27 7.7 November 1976 1.31 8.4 December 1976 1.37 8.0 January 1977 1.25 7.5 February 1977 1.23 7.2 March 1977 1.19 7.2 April 1977 1.14 7.3 May 1977 1.08 7.9 June 1977 1.04 6.2 July 1977 0.98 7.1 August 1977 0.90 7.0 September 1977 0.94 6.7 October 1977 0.91 6.9 November 1977 0.89 7.0 December 1977 0.85 6.8 January 1978 0.81 6.5 February 1978 0.66 6.7 March 1978 0.71 6.2 April 1978 0.67 6.1 May 1978 0.68 5.7 June 1978 0.63 6.0 July 1978 0.64 5.8 August 1978 0.60 5.8 September 1978 0.61 5.6 October 1978 0.58 5.9 November 1978 0.51 5.5 December 1978 0.49 5.6 January 1979 0.51 5.9 February 1979 0.53 5.9 March 1979 0.57 5.9 April 1979 0.53 5.4 May 1979 0.50 5.6 June 1979 0.50 5.6 July 1979 0.45 5.9 August 1979 0.51 4.8 September 1979 0.50 5.5 October 1979 0.50 5.5 November 1979 0.52 5.3 December 1979 0.51 5.7 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1980 0.51 5.3 February 1980 0.48 5.8 March 1980 0.58 6.0 April 1980 0.65 5.8 May 1980 0.67 5.7 June 1980 0.72 6.4 July 1980 0.82 7.0 August 1980 0.87 7.5 September 1980 0.90 7.7 October 1980 0.99 7.5 November 1980 1.05 7.7 December 1980 1.07 7.5 January 1981 1.17 7.4 February 1981 1.15 7.1 March 1981 1.12 7.1 April 1981 1.04 7.4 May 1981 1.05 6.9 June 1981 1.04 6.6 July 1981 1.00 7.1 August 1981 1.07 7.2 September 1981 1.03 6.8 October 1981 1.04 6.8 November 1981 1.05 6.9 December 1981 1.08 6.9 January 1982 1.09 7.1 February 1982 1.17 7.5 March 1982 1.24 7.7 April 1982 1.37 8.1 May 1982 1.46 8.5 June 1982 1.62 9.5 July 1982 1.65 8.5 August 1982 1.69 8.7 September 1982 1.82 9.5 October 1982 2.03 9.7 November 1982 2.11 10.0 December 1982 2.31 10.2 January 1983 2.41 11.1 February 1983 2.45 9.8 March 1983 2.48 10.4 April 1983 2.45 10.9 May 1983 2.48 12.3 June 1983 2.58 11.3 July 1983 2.32 10.1 August 1983 2.25 9.3 September 1983 2.17 9.3 October 1983 2.03 9.4 November 1983 1.93 9.3 December 1983 1.83 8.7 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1984 1.82 9.1 February 1984 1.63 8.3 March 1984 1.58 8.3 April 1984 1.56 8.2 May 1984 1.49 9.1 June 1984 1.38 7.5 July 1984 1.40 7.5 August 1984 1.33 7.3 September 1984 1.27 7.6 October 1984 1.25 7.2 November 1984 1.25 7.2 December 1984 1.22 7.3 January 1985 1.15 6.8 February 1985 1.17 7.1 March 1985 1.17 7.1 April 1985 1.19 6.9 May 1985 1.07 6.9 June 1985 1.11 6.6 July 1985 1.10 6.9 August 1985 1.06 7.1 September 1985 1.06 6.9 October 1985 1.03 7.1 November 1985 1.12 7.0 December 1985 1.04 6.8 January 1986 0.93 6.7 February 1986 1.01 6.9 March 1986 1.00 6.8 April 1986 1.00 6.7 May 1986 0.99 6.8 June 1986 1.08 7.0 July 1986 1.03 6.9 August 1986 1.01 7.1 September 1986 1.04 7.4 October 1986 1.02 7.0 November 1986 0.98 7.1 December 1986 0.97 7.1 January 1987 0.96 6.9 February 1987 0.93 6.6 March 1987 0.94 6.6 April 1987 0.90 7.1 May 1987 0.93 6.6 June 1987 0.90 6.5 July 1987 0.82 6.5 August 1987 0.87 6.4 September 1987 0.82 6.0 October 1987 0.79 6.3 November 1987 0.77 6.2 December 1987 0.75 6.0 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1988 0.72 6.2 February 1988 0.73 6.3 March 1988 0.70 6.4 April 1988 0.67 5.9 May 1988 0.70 5.9 June 1988 0.66 5.8 July 1988 0.65 6.1 August 1988 0.65 5.9 September 1988 0.67 5.7 October 1988 0.63 5.6 November 1988 0.57 5.7 December 1988 0.60 5.9 January 1989 0.59 5.6 February 1989 0.52 5.4 March 1989 0.54 5.4 April 1989 0.58 5.4 May 1989 0.51 5.3 June 1989 0.49 5.4 July 1989 0.50 5.6 August 1989 0.45 5.0 September 1989 0.48 4.9 October 1989 0.52 4.9 November 1989 0.53 4.8 December 1989 0.51 4.9 January 1990 0.51 5.1 February 1990 0.50 5.3 March 1990 0.51 5.1 April 1990 0.52 4.8 May 1990 0.51 5.2 June 1990 0.51 5.2 July 1990 0.55 5.4 August 1990 0.58 5.4 September 1990 0.62 5.6 October 1990 0.62 5.8 November 1990 0.66 5.7 December 1990 0.66 5.9 January 1991 0.69 6.0 February 1991 0.72 6.2 March 1991 0.75 6.7 April 1991 0.77 6.6 May 1991 0.83 6.4 June 1991 0.88 6.9 July 1991 0.88 7.0 August 1991 0.93 7.3 September 1991 0.94 6.8 October 1991 0.98 7.2 November 1991 1.09 7.5 December 1991 1.19 7.8 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1992 1.28 8.1 February 1992 1.34 8.2 March 1992 1.39 8.3 April 1992 1.37 8.5 May 1992 1.55 8.8 June 1992 1.67 8.7 July 1992 1.65 8.6 August 1992 1.61 8.8 September 1992 1.64 8.6 October 1992 1.71 9.0 November 1992 1.55 9.0 December 1992 1.60 9.3 January 1993 1.53 8.6 February 1993 1.48 8.5 March 1993 1.40 8.5 April 1993 1.27 8.4 May 1993 1.37 8.1 June 1993 1.38 8.3 July 1993 1.37 8.2 August 1993 1.37 8.2 September 1993 1.36 8.3 October 1993 1.40 8.0 November 1993 1.39 8.3 December 1993 1.37 8.3 January 1994 1.33 8.6 February 1994 1.35 9.2 March 1994 1.37 9.3 April 1994 1.34 9.1 May 1994 1.30 9.2 June 1994 1.21 9.3 July 1994 1.20 9.0 August 1994 1.20 8.9 September 1994 1.17 9.2 October 1994 1.21 10.0 November 1994 1.11 9.0 December 1994 1.04 8.7 January 1995 1.01 8.0 February 1995 0.93 8.1 March 1995 1.01 8.3 April 1995 1.07 8.3 May 1995 1.00 9.1 June 1995 0.94 7.9 July 1995 0.94 8.5 August 1995 0.93 8.3 September 1995 0.95 7.9 October 1995 0.92 8.2 November 1995 0.95 8.0 December 1995 0.92 8.3 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 1996 0.91 8.3 February 1996 0.90 7.8 March 1996 1.00 8.3 April 1996 1.01 8.6 May 1996 1.02 8.6 June 1996 1.02 8.3 July 1996 0.99 8.3 August 1996 0.94 8.4 September 1996 0.90 8.5 October 1996 0.88 8.3 November 1996 0.85 7.7 December 1996 0.85 7.8 January 1997 0.85 7.8 February 1997 0.82 8.1 March 1997 0.81 7.9 April 1997 0.81 8.3 May 1997 0.77 8.0 June 1997 0.79 8.0 July 1997 0.79 8.3 August 1997 0.79 7.8 September 1997 0.79 8.2 October 1997 0.76 7.7 November 1997 0.68 7.6 December 1997 0.72 7.5 January 1998 0.73 7.4 February 1998 0.70 7.0 March 1998 0.67 6.8 April 1998 0.64 6.7 May 1998 0.61 6.0 June 1998 0.57 6.9 July 1998 0.60 6.7 August 1998 0.59 6.8 September 1998 0.66 6.7 October 1998 0.62 5.8 November 1998 0.63 6.6 December 1998 0.58 6.8 January 1999 0.51 6.9 February 1999 0.58 6.8 March 1999 0.51 6.8 April 1999 0.50 6.2 May 1999 0.52 6.5 June 1999 0.58 6.3 July 1999 0.52 5.8 August 1999 0.51 6.5 September 1999 0.51 6.0 October 1999 0.52 6.1 November 1999 0.49 6.2 December 1999 0.49 5.8 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 2000 0.51 5.8 February 2000 0.44 6.1 March 2000 0.45 6.0 April 2000 0.42 6.1 May 2000 0.45 5.8 June 2000 0.44 5.7 July 2000 0.49 6.0 August 2000 0.50 6.3 September 2000 0.45 5.2 October 2000 0.44 6.1 November 2000 0.41 6.1 December 2000 0.45 6.0 January 2001 0.47 5.8 February 2001 0.50 6.1 March 2001 0.48 6.6 April 2001 0.50 5.9 May 2001 0.44 6.3 June 2001 0.50 6.0 July 2001 0.49 6.8 August 2001 0.60 6.9 September 2001 0.57 7.2 October 2001 0.63 7.3 November 2001 0.77 7.7 December 2001 0.78 8.2 January 2002 0.84 8.4 February 2002 0.84 8.3 March 2002 0.92 8.4 April 2002 1.01 8.9 May 2002 1.09 9.5 June 2002 1.13 11.0 July 2002 1.09 8.9 August 2002 1.08 9.0 September 2002 1.09 9.5 October 2002 1.14 9.6 November 2002 1.20 9.3 December 2002 1.33 9.6 January 2003 1.21 9.6 February 2003 1.28 9.5 March 2003 1.23 9.7 April 2003 1.32 10.2 May 2003 1.32 9.9 June 2003 1.43 11.5 July 2003 1.35 10.3 August 2003 1.36 10.1 September 2003 1.37 10.2 October 2003 1.34 10.4 November 2003 1.36 10.3 December 2003 1.32 10.4 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 2004 1.30 10.6 February 2004 1.27 10.2 March 2004 1.35 10.2 April 2004 1.23 9.5 May 2004 1.22 9.9 June 2004 1.25 11.0 July 2004 1.14 8.9 August 2004 1.11 9.2 September 2004 1.15 9.6 October 2004 1.18 9.5 November 2004 1.15 9.7 December 2004 1.12 9.5 January 2005 1.11 9.4 February 2005 1.10 9.2 March 2005 1.12 9.3 April 2005 1.08 9.0 May 2005 1.03 9.1 June 2005 0.92 9.0 July 2005 0.92 8.8 August 2005 0.94 9.2 September 2005 0.96 8.4 October 2005 0.95 8.6 November 2005 0.91 8.5 December 2005 0.90 8.7 January 2006 0.78 8.6 February 2006 0.90 9.1 March 2006 0.87 8.7 April 2006 0.88 8.4 May 2006 0.88 8.5 June 2006 0.76 7.3 July 2006 0.86 8.0 August 2006 0.86 8.4 September 2006 0.82 8.0 October 2006 0.71 7.9 November 2006 0.74 8.3 December 2006 0.72 7.5 January 2007 0.74 8.3 February 2007 0.81 8.4 March 2007 0.81 9.1 April 2007 0.79 8.6 May 2007 0.74 8.2 June 2007 0.75 7.7 July 2007 0.85 8.7 August 2007 0.82 8.8 September 2007 0.83 8.7 October 2007 0.85 8.4 November 2007 0.89 8.7 December 2007 0.86 8.4 Period Longterm unemployed* (Percent of labor force) Median duration of unemployment (Weeks) January 2008 0.90 9.0 February 2008 0.86 8.7 March 2008 0.85 8.6 April 2008 0.89 9.2 May 2008 1.02 7.9 June 2008 1.03 9.1 July 2008 1.08 9.6 August 2008 1.21 9.6 September 2008 1.31 10.3 October 2008 1.47 10.5 November 2008 1.44 9.9 December 2008 1.69 10.6 January 2009 1.74 10.7 February 2009 1.93 11.6 March 2009 2.10 12.2 April 2009 2.40 12.9 May 2009 2.59 14.4 June 2009 2.84 17.4 July 2009 3.21 15.8 August 2009 3.27 16.1 September 2009 3.57 18.0 October 2009 3.67 18.9 November 2009 3.85 20.2 December 2009 4.00 20.4 January 2010 4.11 20.0 February 2010 3.99 19.6 March 2010 4.23 20.3 April 2010 4.31 21.6 May 2010 4.35 22.8 June 2010 4.35 25.5 July 2010 4.26 21.7 August 2010 4.06 20.6 September 2010 3.99 20.5 October 2010 4.05 21.3 November 2010 4.11 21.7 December 2010 4.19 22.4 Period * Unemployed for more than 26 weeks. Return to table Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: April 1960February 1961, December 1969November 1970, November 1973March 1975, January 1980July 1980, July 1981November 1982, July 1990March 1991, March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Exhibit 4 Theoretical Motivation Top panel The Matching Function α−1 = α U t α−1 t V tμ = tH = total hires (or matches) tH = total vacancies = total unemployment = "matching efficiency" parameter tV tU tμ Middle panel Matching Efficiency , tV tU Lower efficiency implies fewer hires for a given Decline in efficiency shifts Beveridge curve out Efficiency parameter can change because of structural or cyclical factors (i.e., any changes not captured by or ) tV tU Bottom panel Shifts and Movements in the Beveridge Curve Beveridge Curve A graph shows a Beveridge curve, which is a downwardsloping curve that is concave to the origin. The horizontal axis shows the unemployment rate. The vertical axis shows the vacancy rate. The graph shows that expansionary movements represent movements up and to the left along the curve and that recessionary movements represent movements down and to the right along the curve. It also shows that the curve can shift out (up and to the right) in a parallel fashion. Things that shift the Beveridge curve Changes in matching efficiency Changes in layoff, separation rates "Looping" to new equilibrium Things that affect measured matching efficiency Mismatch Behavior of quitting workers Search efforts of workers, firms Exhibit 5 Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits Unemployment Duration by Reason for Unemployment Topleft panel Weeks Unemployed Job losers (UI eligible) Quits/entrants (UI ineligible) January 2005 13.21 15.50 February 2005 13.33 15.62 March 2005 13.25 14.85 April 2005 12.79 15.63 May 2005 12.73 15.02 June 2005 13.03 14.89 July 2005 12.86 15.20 August 2005 12.54 15.28 September 2005 12.90 15.73 October 2005 12.63 15.39 Period Job losers (UI eligible) Quits/entrants (UI ineligible) November 2005 13.16 14.98 December 2005 12.75 14.21 January 2006 12.70 13.60 February 2006 12.30 13.94 March 2006 11.90 13.73 April 2006 13.03 13.44 May 2006 13.30 12.98 June 2006 12.68 13.50 July 2006 11.88 15.55 August 2006 11.74 15.91 September 2006 12.14 15.84 October 2006 11.69 13.89 November 2006 11.65 13.73 December 2006 11.29 13.52 January 2007 11.96 13.67 February 2007 11.98 12.63 March 2007 12.14 13.36 April 2007 12.14 14.30 May 2007 12.43 15.28 June 2007 13.16 14.94 July 2007 14.50 14.40 August 2007 14.58 13.94 September 2007 14.53 14.76 October 2007 13.39 15.27 November 2007 12.90 16.20 December 2007 13.17 16.14 January 2008 12.77 16.23 February 2008 13.72 15.77 March 2008 14.08 14.75 April 2008 14.00 14.41 May 2008 14.11 17.01 June 2008 14.47 19.32 July 2008 15.69 21.44 August 2008 16.66 21.17 September 2008 18.02 21.21 October 2008 19.63 20.61 November 2008 21.20 19.84 December 2008 25.41 20.19 January 2009 29.49 21.43 February 2009 32.64 24.97 March 2009 32.94 26.43 April 2009 32.03 27.12 May 2009 35.75 31.52 June 2009 34.47 35.39 July 2009 35.60 37.02 August 2009 33.77 32.60 September 2009 33.42 29.19 October 2009 32.29 29.70 Period Job losers (UI eligible) Quits/entrants (UI ineligible) November 2009 29.25 29.91 December 2009 30.10 30.60 January 2010 29.05 32.53 February 2010 28.94 32.26 March 2010 28.04 31.94 April 2010 27.37 29.28 May 2010 26.78 28.95 June 2010 25.37 28.06 July 2010 25.29 28.25 August 2010 26.78 28.97 September 2010 27.19 27.52 October 2010 27.74 27.61 Period Note: Through October, 2010, threemonth moving average. From Daly et al. (2011), using CPS data. Dashed vertical lines indicate effective dates for extensions of maximum UI duration: June 2008, November 2008, November 2009. A shaded bar indicates a period of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research: December 2007June 2009. Topright panel Extended UI Benefits tU Transitions out of unemployment: + 0.9 to 1.7% pts to tU Preferred estimate across studies: about +0.8% pts to tU Job loser's behavior: + 0.8% pts to Unemployment Transition Rates by Unemployment Duration Bottomleft panel Transitions from Unemployment to Employment Duration, Weeks Transition Rate, 20042007 Transition Rate, 20092010 04 0.332 0.261 58 0.256 0.178 912 0.234 0.173 1316 0.233 0.162 1720 0.198 0.137 2124 0.221 0.138 2528 0.231 0.125 2932 0.208 0.111 3340 0.209 0.119 4168 0.165 0.116 6996 0.132 0.093 97+ 0.144 0.091 Note: From Fujita (2010), using CPS data. Bottomright panel Transitions from Unemployment to Out of the Labor Force Duration, Weeks Transition Rate, 20042007 Transition Rate, 20092010 04 0.203 0.167 58 0.201 0.161 912 0.198 0.154 1316 0.183 0.141 1720 0.162 0.133 Duration, Weeks Transition Rate, 20042007 Transition Rate, 20092010 2124 0.158 0.144 2528 0.235 0.176 2932 0.184 0.142 3340 0.210 0.155 4168 0.220 0.165 6996 0.227 0.147 97+ 0.260 0.190 Note: From Fujita (2010), using CPS data. Exhibit 6 Employer Recruiting Intensity Recruiting Intensity per Vacancy over Time Topleft panel Period Recruiting Intensity Index January 2001 1.13 February 2001 1.12 March 2001 1.17 April 2001 1.10 May 2001 1.11 June 2001 1.07 July 2001 1.07 August 2001 1.07 September 2001 1.06 October 2001 1.05 November 2001 1.05 December 2001 1.02 January 2002 1.04 February 2002 1.03 March 2002 1.00 April 2002 1.04 May 2002 1.04 June 2002 1.02 July 2002 1.06 August 2002 1.02 September 2002 1.03 October 2002 1.01 November 2002 1.03 December 2002 1.03 January 2003 1.04 February 2003 1.00 March 2003 0.95 April 2003 0.99 May 2003 0.98 June 2003 0.99 July 2003 0.97 Period Recruiting Intensity Index August 2003 0.99 September 2003 1.01 October 2003 1.03 November 2003 0.99 December 2003 1.04 January 2004 1.03 February 2004 1.00 March 2004 1.07 April 2004 1.05 May 2004 1.04 June 2004 1.03 July 2004 1.02 August 2004 1.05 September 2004 1.04 October 2004 1.06 November 2004 1.06 December 2004 1.06 January 2005 1.10 February 2005 1.07 March 2005 1.07 April 2005 1.06 May 2005 1.06 June 2005 1.07 July 2005 1.06 August 2005 1.09 September 2005 1.08 October 2005 1.03 November 2005 1.06 December 2005 1.04 January 2006 1.02 February 2006 1.08 March 2006 1.06 April 2006 1.03 May 2006 1.08 June 2006 1.06 July 2006 1.08 August 2006 1.04 September 2006 1.05 October 2006 1.05 November 2006 1.08 December 2006 1.05 January 2007 1.03 February 2007 1.03 March 2007 1.05 April 2007 1.03 May 2007 1.05 June 2007 1.04 July 2007 1.02 Period Recruiting Intensity Index August 2007 1.02 September 2007 1.02 October 2007 1.04 November 2007 1.02 December 2007 0.99 January 2008 0.98 February 2008 0.99 March 2008 0.98 April 2008 0.99 May 2008 0.96 June 2008 0.98 July 2008 0.94 August 2008 0.94 September 2008 0.91 October 2008 0.91 November 2008 0.85 December 2008 0.89 January 2009 0.89 February 2009 0.86 March 2009 0.83 April 2009 0.85 May 2009 0.84 June 2009 0.82 July 2009 0.85 August 2009 0.84 September 2009 0.86 October 2009 0.84 November 2009 0.87 December 2009 0.84 January 2010 0.86 February 2010 0.84 March 2010 0.88 April 2010 0.87 May 2010 0.88 June 2010 0.88 July 2010 0.89 August 2010 0.87 September 2010 0.87 Note: From Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2010), using JOLTS data. JOLTS data begin in December 2000. Scaled so that average value is equal to one over the sample period. Topright panel Recruiting Intensity tU Low recruiting intensity accounts for 1.4% of Rise could be structural or cyclical Bottom panel Actual vs. Counterfactual Unemployment Rate, Holding Recruiting Intensity Constant Percent of Labor Force Actual Unemployment Rate Rate Predicted from TimeInvariant Recruiting Intensity January 2001 Period 4.26 4.81 February 2001 4.31 4.84 March 2001 4.34 5.08 April 2001 4.44 4.90 May 2001 4.42 4.91 June 2001 4.60 4.93 July 2001 4.66 5.01 August 2001 5.00 5.33 September 2001 5.05 5.34 October 2001 5.43 5.73 November 2001 5.65 5.92 December 2001 5.82 5.92 January 2002 5.79 6.01 February 2002 5.78 5.96 March 2002 5.85 5.88 April 2002 6.04 6.30 May 2002 5.89 6.13 June 2002 5.90 6.03 July 2002 5.89 6.27 August 2002 5.83 5.97 September 2002 5.77 5.92 October 2002 5.82 5.88 November 2002 5.97 6.18 December 2002 6.06 6.25 January 2003 5.94 6.17 February 2003 6.00 5.99 March 2003 5.98 5.71 April 2003 6.14 6.07 May 2003 6.22 6.08 June 2003 6.41 6.33 July 2003 6.26 6.10 August 2003 6.18 6.10 September 2003 6.19 6.25 October 2003 6.05 6.25 November 2003 5.92 5.87 December 2003 5.76 5.97 January 2004 5.79 5.94 February 2004 5.66 5.64 March 2004 5.87 6.31 April 2004 5.66 5.94 May 2004 5.68 5.88 June 2004 5.71 5.86 July 2004 5.60 5.69 August 2004 5.50 5.77 September 2004 5.47 5.71 October 2004 5.54 5.85 November 2004 5.44 5.76 December 2004 5.44 5.78 Period Actual Unemployment Rate Rate Predicted from TimeInvariant Recruiting Intensity January 2005 5.34 5.87 February 2005 5.46 5.83 March 2005 5.30 5.66 April 2005 5.23 5.57 May 2005 5.21 5.54 June 2005 5.12 5.49 July 2005 5.03 5.34 August 2005 4.98 5.41 September 2005 5.12 5.53 October 2005 5.05 5.20 November 2005 5.12 5.44 December 2005 4.92 5.12 January 2006 4.77 4.89 February 2006 4.84 5.21 March 2006 4.76 5.05 April 2006 4.79 4.95 May 2006 4.69 5.08 June 2006 4.69 4.99 July 2006 4.80 5.18 August 2006 4.75 4.96 September 2006 4.58 4.82 October 2006 4.49 4.72 November 2006 4.58 4.94 December 2006 4.51 4.72 January 2007 4.70 4.85 February 2007 4.58 4.70 March 2007 4.45 4.70 April 2007 4.55 4.70 May 2007 4.49 4.70 June 2007 4.62 4.78 July 2007 4.71 4.79 August 2007 4.71 4.81 September 2007 4.76 4.84 October 2007 4.81 4.99 November 2007 4.80 4.90 December 2007 5.07 5.02 January 2008 5.02 4.92 February 2008 4.91 4.84 March 2008 5.14 5.03 April 2008 5.03 4.97 May 2008 5.53 5.30 June 2008 5.64 5.50 July 2008 5.86 5.50 August 2008 6.25 5.87 September 2008 6.30 5.73 October 2008 6.68 6.06 November 2008 6.99 5.92 December 2008 7.50 6.66 Period Actual Unemployment Rate Rate Predicted from TimeInvariant Recruiting Intensity January 2009 7.86 6.99 February 2009 8.37 7.19 March 2009 8.78 7.32 April 2009 9.09 7.75 May 2009 9.52 7.95 June 2009 9.66 7.90 July 2009 9.57 8.14 August 2009 9.87 8.26 September 2009 10.01 8.59 October 2009 10.32 8.68 November 2009 10.15 8.79 December 2009 10.15 8.57 January 2010 9.86 8.44 February 2010 9.86 8.31 March 2010 9.92 8.77 April 2010 10.04 8.78 May 2010 9.89 8.69 June 2010 9.67 8.50 July 2010 9.64 8.55 August 2010 9.76 8.45 September 2010 9.68 8.43 Note: From Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2010), using JOLTS and CPS data. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Exhibit 7 General Measures of Mismatch Top panel Unemployment Outflow Rates by Industry Rate Period Total Construction Information Durable Goods Financial Education and Health February 2000 0.588 ND 0.577 0.613 0.490 0.643 March 2000 0.592 0.506 0.510 0.635 0.576 0.627 April 2000 0.598 0.652 0.640 0.537 0.581 0.657 May 2000 0.593 0.685 0.635 0.546 0.543 0.611 June 2000 0.603 0.701 0.700 0.566 0.552 0.627 July 2000 0.602 0.689 0.656 0.559 0.578 0.634 August 2000 0.598 0.691 0.644 0.582 0.548 0.605 September 2000 0.606 0.720 0.662 0.599 0.578 0.649 October 2000 0.607 0.713 0.700 0.605 0.564 0.656 November 2000 0.604 0.705 0.657 0.590 0.570 0.657 December 2000 0.598 0.703 0.623 0.574 0.566 0.660 January 2001 0.593 0.668 0.602 0.551 0.540 0.630 February 2001 0.597 0.671 0.642 0.545 0.543 0.641 March 2001 0.588 0.668 0.615 0.527 0.535 0.626 Period Total Construction Information Durable Goods Financial Education and Health April 2001 0.584 0.640 0.623 0.559 0.520 0.638 May 2001 0.588 0.654 0.620 0.543 0.555 0.649 June 2001 0.580 0.668 0.572 0.530 0.534 0.649 July 2001 0.575 0.669 0.570 0.520 0.501 0.640 August 2001 0.569 0.657 0.560 0.505 0.529 0.639 September 2001 0.555 0.649 0.516 0.485 0.499 0.637 October 2001 0.540 0.640 0.458 0.460 0.497 0.620 November 2001 0.530 0.616 0.460 0.461 0.473 0.604 December 2001 0.517 0.597 0.452 0.448 0.479 0.588 January 2002 0.513 0.589 0.444 0.443 0.482 0.600 February 2002 0.500 0.594 0.381 0.428 0.462 0.573 March 2002 0.493 0.578 0.402 0.415 0.453 0.575 April 2002 0.476 0.571 0.349 0.378 0.442 0.553 May 2002 0.464 0.559 0.329 0.383 0.389 0.543 June 2002 0.448 0.530 0.327 0.366 0.380 0.532 July 2002 0.442 0.519 0.314 0.369 0.386 0.518 August 2002 0.438 0.511 0.293 0.366 0.354 0.522 September 2002 0.432 0.485 0.310 0.359 0.358 0.504 October 2002 0.427 0.476 0.318 0.353 0.349 0.507 November 2002 0.423 0.483 0.314 0.333 0.342 0.505 December 2002 0.419 0.471 0.308 0.323 0.319 0.493 January 2003 0.415 0.476 0.313 0.322 0.331 0.489 February 2003 0.410 0.466 0.288 0.324 0.334 0.482 March 2003 0.408 0.473 0.295 0.328 0.309 0.485 April 2003 0.405 0.475 0.295 0.321 0.314 0.461 May 2003 0.402 0.452 0.293 0.310 0.320 0.470 June 2003 0.398 0.438 0.292 0.305 0.322 0.457 July 2003 0.394 0.435 0.298 0.297 0.332 0.463 August 2003 0.390 0.445 0.306 0.279 0.322 0.453 September 2003 0.384 0.447 0.283 0.268 0.319 0.444 October 2003 0.384 0.458 0.298 0.275 0.326 0.438 November 2003 0.383 0.467 0.265 0.278 0.329 0.426 December 2003 0.384 0.475 0.289 0.292 0.329 0.432 January 2004 0.382 0.481 0.280 0.293 0.287 0.425 February 2004 0.381 0.471 0.325 0.278 0.301 0.432 March 2004 0.377 0.463 0.305 0.276 0.307 0.416 April 2004 0.384 0.466 0.321 0.289 0.310 0.431 May 2004 0.385 0.483 0.326 0.291 0.316 0.424 June 2004 0.389 0.495 0.343 0.302 0.319 0.420 July 2004 0.392 0.502 0.347 0.302 0.312 0.415 August 2004 0.395 0.497 0.363 0.317 0.331 0.427 September 2004 0.402 0.490 0.379 0.330 0.315 0.430 October 2004 0.403 0.479 0.344 0.333 0.319 0.437 November 2004 0.405 0.477 0.371 0.329 0.337 0.440 December 2004 0.408 0.477 0.375 0.331 0.332 0.437 January 2005 0.413 0.476 0.378 0.336 0.387 0.442 February 2005 0.413 0.482 0.346 0.349 0.370 0.439 March 2005 0.421 0.489 0.365 0.353 0.386 0.444 Period Total Construction Information Durable Goods Financial Education and Health April 2005 0.420 0.494 0.341 0.374 0.392 0.436 May 2005 0.423 0.484 0.353 0.379 0.395 0.425 June 2005 0.430 0.485 0.327 0.381 0.396 0.445 July 2005 0.429 0.489 0.331 0.372 0.392 0.455 August 2005 0.430 0.487 0.315 0.377 0.398 0.453 September 2005 0.429 0.503 0.313 0.372 0.425 0.447 October 2005 0.435 0.539 0.324 0.361 0.434 0.446 November 2005 0.438 0.531 0.333 0.369 0.424 0.448 December 2005 0.443 0.519 0.349 0.370 0.450 0.469 January 2006 0.447 0.537 0.358 0.377 0.415 0.458 February 2006 0.449 0.540 0.392 0.376 0.418 0.460 March 2006 0.455 0.537 0.431 0.389 0.405 0.461 April 2006 0.455 0.535 0.420 0.374 0.399 0.465 May 2006 0.457 0.529 0.393 0.390 0.392 0.478 June 2006 0.461 0.546 0.432 0.405 0.403 0.480 July 2006 0.462 0.535 0.444 0.424 0.406 0.463 August 2006 0.464 0.541 0.428 0.428 0.416 0.461 September 2006 0.470 0.543 0.414 0.452 0.407 0.473 October 2006 0.475 0.543 0.447 0.470 0.400 0.467 November 2006 0.473 0.544 0.437 0.467 0.394 0.474 December 2006 0.475 0.564 0.438 0.475 0.387 0.459 January 2007 0.470 0.548 0.425 0.455 0.409 0.466 February 2007 0.475 0.550 0.412 0.458 0.413 0.480 March 2007 0.472 0.557 0.402 0.452 0.424 0.483 April 2007 0.470 0.545 0.454 0.443 0.446 0.465 May 2007 0.468 0.549 0.448 0.428 0.439 0.460 June 2007 0.462 0.529 0.432 0.418 0.424 0.456 July 2007 0.458 0.528 0.406 0.416 0.420 0.455 August 2007 0.458 0.528 0.412 0.411 0.384 0.463 September 2007 0.450 0.510 0.426 0.383 0.394 0.452 October 2007 0.442 0.485 0.404 0.369 0.386 0.461 November 2007 0.445 0.489 0.401 0.381 0.419 0.466 December 2007 0.435 0.469 0.382 0.370 0.397 0.465 January 2008 0.437 0.476 0.372 0.387 0.389 0.462 February 2008 0.435 0.472 0.359 0.380 0.384 0.451 March 2008 0.430 0.454 0.334 0.370 0.368 0.448 April 2008 0.429 0.453 0.295 0.371 0.339 0.466 May 2008 0.424 0.466 0.330 0.369 0.342 0.463 June 2008 0.417 0.467 0.332 0.362 0.354 0.447 July 2008 0.412 0.459 0.348 0.350 0.341 0.445 August 2008 0.404 0.454 0.364 0.330 0.338 0.428 September 2008 0.397 0.442 0.346 0.324 0.315 0.421 October 2008 0.387 0.423 0.344 0.339 0.299 0.400 November 2008 0.379 0.412 0.357 0.322 0.256 0.386 December 2008 0.368 0.414 0.327 0.313 0.250 0.378 January 2009 0.358 0.397 0.339 0.290 0.240 0.383 February 2009 0.341 0.381 0.338 0.282 0.224 0.373 March 2009 0.330 0.378 0.305 0.273 0.218 0.356 Period Total Construction Information Durable Goods Financial Education and Health April 2009 0.317 0.370 0.285 0.269 0.222 0.340 May 2009 0.300 0.328 0.264 0.252 0.222 0.325 June 2009 0.287 0.310 0.227 0.237 0.209 0.302 July 2009 0.278 0.293 0.197 0.231 0.204 0.300 August 2009 0.265 0.276 0.187 0.230 0.207 0.292 September 2009 0.252 0.270 0.190 0.223 0.181 0.275 October 2009 0.242 0.255 0.200 0.196 0.180 0.273 November 2009 0.234 0.243 0.192 0.193 0.182 0.267 December 2009 0.229 0.228 0.210 0.190 0.175 0.252 January 2010 0.223 0.229 0.188 0.189 0.172 0.241 February 2010 0.221 0.223 0.186 0.186 0.166 0.233 March 2010 0.217 0.220 0.191 0.176 0.160 0.241 April 2010 0.212 0.217 0.200 0.175 0.145 0.240 May 2010 0.214 0.219 0.186 0.175 0.141 0.233 June 2010 0.215 0.209 0.197 0.175 0.132 0.241 July 2010 0.211 0.222 0.190 0.167 0.140 0.235 August 2010 0.210 0.216 0.189 0.162 0.134 0.228 September 2010 0.212 0.216 0.186 0.166 0.153 0.235 October 2010 0.211 0.220 0.164 0.163 0.149 0.233 November 2010 0.208 0.216 0.167 0.158 0.145 0.228 Note: Elsby, Hobijn, Şahin (2010), CPS. Series 12Month Moving Average. Bottom panel Unemployment Rate of Recent College Graduates Percent Period <25 College Graduates All 1976:Q1 7.53 7.73 1976:Q2 8.53 7.57 1976:Q3 7.95 7.73 1976:Q4 8.05 7.77 1977:Q1 10.36 7.50 1977:Q2 8.39 7.13 1977:Q3 7.51 6.90 1977:Q4 7.97 6.67 1978:Q1 7.45 6.33 1978:Q2 6.22 6.00 1978:Q3 7.48 6.03 1978:Q4 5.81 5.90 1979:Q1 5.35 5.87 1979:Q2 5.38 5.70 1979:Q3 5.72 5.87 1979:Q4 5.65 5.97 1980:Q1 5.36 6.30 1980:Q2 6.29 7.33 1980:Q3 5.76 7.67 1980:Q4 6.25 7.40 1981:Q1 7.10 7.43 1981:Q2 7.31 7.40 Period <25 College Graduates All 1981:Q3 6.67 7.40 1981:Q4 6.82 8.23 1982:Q1 7.15 8.83 1982:Q2 7.46 9.43 1982:Q3 8.21 9.90 1982:Q4 8.95 10.67 1983:Q1 8.46 10.37 1983:Q2 7.62 10.13 1983:Q3 7.53 9.37 1983:Q4 7.98 8.53 1984:Q1 6.77 7.87 1984:Q2 6.31 7.43 1984:Q3 6.82 7.43 1984:Q4 5.99 7.30 1985:Q1 6.12 7.23 1985:Q2 5.97 7.30 1985:Q3 5.78 7.20 1985:Q4 5.38 7.03 1986:Q1 5.52 7.03 1986:Q2 6.71 7.17 1986:Q3 5.99 6.97 1986:Q4 6.17 6.83 1987:Q1 5.98 6.60 1987:Q2 6.35 6.27 1987:Q3 5.71 6.00 1987:Q4 4.87 5.83 1988:Q1 5.27 5.70 1988:Q2 4.51 5.47 1988:Q3 4.47 5.47 1988:Q4 4.57 5.33 1989:Q1 4.71 5.20 1989:Q2 4.69 5.23 1989:Q3 4.61 5.23 1989:Q4 6.04 5.37 1990:Q1 3.91 5.30 1990:Q2 4.83 5.33 1990:Q3 5.55 5.70 1990:Q4 5.53 6.13 1991:Q1 6.68 6.60 1991:Q2 6.82 6.83 1991:Q3 6.48 6.87 1991:Q4 7.97 7.10 1992:Q1 6.52 7.37 1992:Q2 6.42 7.60 1992:Q3 6.65 7.63 1992:Q4 6.70 7.37 1993:Q1 7.02 7.13 1993:Q2 5.60 7.07 Period <25 College Graduates All 1993:Q3 5.37 6.80 1993:Q4 5.65 6.63 1994:Q1 4.79 6.57 1994:Q2 5.18 6.20 1994:Q3 5.54 6.00 1994:Q4 5.18 5.63 1995:Q1 5.71 5.47 1995:Q2 5.89 5.67 1995:Q3 5.24 5.67 1995:Q4 6.23 5.57 1996:Q1 5.95 5.53 1996:Q2 6.03 5.50 1996:Q3 5.64 5.27 1996:Q4 4.67 5.33 1997:Q1 4.86 5.23 1997:Q2 3.38 5.00 1997:Q3 3.51 4.87 1997:Q4 3.25 4.67 1998:Q1 3.26 4.63 1998:Q2 4.10 4.40 1998:Q3 4.79 4.53 1998:Q4 3.79 4.43 1999:Q1 3.79 4.30 1999:Q2 4.97 4.27 1999:Q3 4.90 4.23 1999:Q4 5.61 4.07 2000:Q1 5.09 4.03 2000:Q2 4.93 3.93 2000:Q3 3.57 4.00 2000:Q4 4.21 3.90 2001:Q1 5.18 4.23 2001:Q2 4.87 4.40 2001:Q3 6.67 4.83 2001:Q4 5.84 5.50 2002:Q1 5.34 5.70 2002:Q2 5.59 5.83 2002:Q3 6.09 5.73 2002:Q4 6.00 5.87 2003:Q1 6.24 5.87 2003:Q2 6.28 6.13 2003:Q3 5.70 6.13 2003:Q4 6.29 5.83 2004:Q1 6.28 5.70 2004:Q2 5.93 5.60 2004:Q3 4.39 5.43 2004:Q4 6.77 5.43 2005:Q1 5.81 5.30 2005:Q2 4.82 5.10 Period <25 College Graduates All 2005:Q3 5.16 4.97 2005:Q4 4.34 4.97 2006:Q1 4.46 4.73 2006:Q2 4.95 4.63 2006:Q3 5.15 4.63 2006:Q4 6.19 4.43 2007:Q1 4.41 4.50 2007:Q2 5.78 4.50 2007:Q3 5.87 4.63 2007:Q4 6.15 4.80 2008:Q1 5.11 4.97 2008:Q2 5.37 5.30 2008:Q3 6.10 6.03 2008:Q4 6.85 6.97 2009:Q1 8.76 8.17 2009:Q2 9.18 9.27 2009:Q3 8.61 9.63 2009:Q4 9.18 10.03 2010:Q1 9.14 9.70 2010:Q2 9.11 9.70 2010:Q3 8.52 9.57 Note: Aaronson, Barlevy, Mazumder (2011), CPS. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: January 1980July 1980, July 1981 November 1982, July 1990March 1991, March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Exhibit 8 Skill Mismatch Topleft panel Mismatch Indices by Industry Indices Period Mu Mh June 2001 0.2263 0.0330 July 2001 0.2295 0.0352 August 2001 0.2392 0.0406 September 2001 0.2362 0.0412 October 2001 0.2466 0.0444 November 2001 0.2404 0.0415 December 2001 0.2450 0.0444 January 2002 0.2466 0.0458 February 2002 0.2447 0.0455 March 2002 0.2535 0.0465 April 2002 0.2533 0.0464 May 2002 0.2570 0.0461 June 2002 0.2478 0.0441 July 2002 0.2418 0.0414 Period August 2002 Mu Mh 0.2439 0.0429 September 2002 0.2476 0.0437 October 2002 0.2576 0.0449 November 2002 0.2651 0.0471 December 2002 0.2693 0.0484 January 2003 0.2747 0.0501 February 2003 0.2731 0.0482 March 2003 0.2672 0.0465 April 2003 0.2497 0.0427 May 2003 0.2451 0.0431 June 2003 0.2470 0.0420 July 2003 0.2579 0.0425 August 2003 0.2557 0.0395 September 2003 0.2528 0.0403 October 2003 0.2404 0.0393 November 2003 0.2252 0.0367 December 2003 0.2162 0.0325 January 2004 0.2173 0.0306 February 2004 0.2236 0.0316 March 2004 0.2190 0.0312 April 2004 0.2216 0.0322 May 2004 0.2180 0.0306 June 2004 0.2273 0.0327 July 2004 0.2239 0.0325 August 2004 0.2179 0.0318 September 2004 0.2082 0.0299 October 2004 0.2037 0.0286 November 2004 0.2099 0.0295 December 2004 0.2125 0.0289 January 2005 0.2054 0.0278 February 2005 0.2006 0.0274 March 2005 0.1996 0.0277 April 2005 0.1989 0.0276 May 2005 0.1976 0.0262 June 2005 0.1959 0.0261 July 2005 0.2020 0.0261 August 2005 0.2078 0.0275 September 2005 0.2073 0.0264 October 2005 0.2081 0.0269 November 2005 0.1932 0.0233 December 2005 0.1994 0.0252 January 2006 0.2038 0.0270 February 2006 0.2207 0.0320 March 2006 0.2110 0.0293 April 2006 0.2032 0.0265 May 2006 0.1987 0.0247 June 2006 0.2030 0.0255 July 2006 0.2012 0.0256 Period August 2006 Mu Mh 0.2042 0.0261 September 2006 0.2121 0.0282 October 2006 0.2155 0.0289 November 2006 0.2223 0.0310 December 2006 0.2093 0.0301 January 2007 0.2033 0.0281 February 2007 0.1890 0.0244 March 2007 0.1998 0.0251 April 2007 0.2135 0.0298 May 2007 0.2172 0.0308 June 2007 0.2139 0.0305 July 2007 0.2047 0.0286 August 2007 0.2048 0.0294 September 2007 0.2096 0.0309 October 2007 0.2188 0.0329 November 2007 0.2171 0.0331 December 2007 0.2218 0.0359 January 2008 0.2284 0.0383 February 2008 0.2484 0.0428 March 2008 0.2496 0.0430 April 2008 0.2416 0.0426 May 2008 0.2293 0.0391 June 2008 0.2345 0.0389 July 2008 0.2413 0.0384 August 2008 0.2509 0.0416 September 2008 0.2541 0.0426 October 2008 0.2547 0.0460 November 2008 0.2595 0.0506 December 2008 0.2668 0.0544 January 2009 0.2920 0.0637 February 2009 0.3005 0.0664 March 2009 0.3073 0.0708 April 2009 0.3164 0.0721 May 2009 0.3183 0.0748 June 2009 0.3120 0.0737 July 2009 0.3055 0.0724 August 2009 0.3046 0.0695 September 2009 0.2996 0.0669 October 2009 0.2981 0.0637 November 2009 0.3024 0.0631 December 2009 0.3084 0.0626 January 2010 0.3050 0.0615 February 2010 0.2816 0.0558 March 2010 0.2689 0.0514 April 2010 0.2597 0.0470 May 2010 0.2690 0.0461 June 2010 0.2684 0.0486 July 2010 0.2552 0.0446 Period August 2010 Mu Mh 0.2584 0.0470 September 2010 0.2646 0.0462 October 2010 0.2773 0.0503 November 2010 0.2767 0.0488 Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), JOLTS, CPS, Series 3Month Moving Average. Topright panel Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Industry) Rate Unemployment Rate Counterfactual Unemployment Difference June 2001 Period 4.523 4.232 0.291 July 2001 4.583 4.275 0.308 August 2001 4.915 4.589 0.326 September 2001 4.960 4.584 0.376 October 2001 5.340 4.957 0.383 November 2001 5.548 5.125 0.424 December 2001 5.723 5.279 0.444 January 2002 5.687 5.212 0.474 February 2002 5.679 5.183 0.496 March 2002 5.748 5.241 0.506 April 2002 5.942 5.410 0.532 May 2002 5.795 5.241 0.554 June 2002 5.796 5.246 0.551 July 2002 5.794 5.234 0.560 August 2002 5.727 5.167 0.559 September 2002 5.669 5.102 0.567 October 2002 5.717 5.142 0.574 November 2002 5.874 5.290 0.585 December 2002 5.956 5.347 0.609 January 2003 5.838 5.222 0.616 February 2003 5.899 5.274 0.625 March 2003 5.881 5.251 0.631 April 2003 6.037 5.406 0.630 May 2003 6.114 5.488 0.626 June 2003 6.301 5.661 0.640 July 2003 6.152 5.512 0.639 August 2003 6.075 5.446 0.628 September 2003 6.088 5.466 0.622 October 2003 5.952 5.328 0.624 November 2003 5.834 5.229 0.605 December 2003 5.668 5.085 0.584 January 2004 5.700 5.135 0.565 February 2004 5.567 5.015 0.552 March 2004 5.778 5.235 0.544 April 2004 5.564 5.033 0.530 May 2004 5.584 5.065 0.519 June 2004 5.619 5.112 0.507 July 2004 5.509 5.002 0.507 Period Unemployment Rate Counterfactual Unemployment Difference August 2004 5.415 4.918 0.496 September 2004 5.377 4.899 0.478 October 2004 5.454 4.983 0.472 November 2004 5.354 4.891 0.462 December 2004 5.359 4.904 0.454 January 2005 5.258 4.815 0.444 February 2005 5.379 4.947 0.432 March 2005 5.214 4.785 0.429 April 2005 5.152 4.735 0.417 May 2005 5.126 4.721 0.405 June 2005 5.042 4.647 0.394 July 2005 4.956 4.567 0.389 August 2005 4.904 4.526 0.378 September 2005 5.037 4.658 0.379 October 2005 4.969 4.597 0.372 November 2005 5.042 4.673 0.369 December 2005 4.852 4.504 0.348 January 2006 4.703 4.351 0.352 February 2006 4.769 4.415 0.354 March 2006 4.689 4.329 0.361 April 2006 4.719 4.374 0.345 May 2006 4.620 4.281 0.340 June 2006 4.626 4.288 0.337 July 2006 4.740 4.406 0.334 August 2006 4.674 4.345 0.329 September 2006 4.515 4.184 0.330 October 2006 4.425 4.094 0.330 November 2006 4.509 4.185 0.325 December 2006 4.427 4.088 0.340 January 2007 4.637 4.301 0.335 February 2007 4.511 4.186 0.325 March 2007 4.391 4.074 0.318 April 2007 4.484 4.160 0.324 May 2007 4.432 4.099 0.333 June 2007 4.561 4.233 0.328 July 2007 4.672 4.335 0.337 August 2007 4.638 4.301 0.337 September 2007 4.687 4.349 0.338 October 2007 4.747 4.396 0.351 November 2007 4.720 4.363 0.357 December 2007 4.979 4.620 0.359 January 2008 4.968 4.580 0.388 February 2008 4.844 4.445 0.399 March 2008 5.055 4.640 0.415 April 2008 4.946 4.512 0.434 May 2008 5.442 4.999 0.443 June 2008 5.567 5.113 0.454 July 2008 5.797 5.324 0.473 Period Unemployment Rate Counterfactual Unemployment Difference August 2008 6.136 5.648 0.488 September 2008 6.181 5.670 0.511 October 2008 6.567 6.036 0.531 November 2008 6.824 6.256 0.568 December 2008 7.334 6.727 0.607 January 2009 7.733 7.114 0.618 February 2009 8.234 7.514 0.721 March 2009 8.634 7.833 0.801 April 2009 8.930 8.049 0.881 May 2009 9.369 8.468 0.901 June 2009 9.512 8.584 0.928 July 2009 9.416 8.485 0.931 August 2009 9.709 8.628 1.081 September 2009 9.848 8.755 1.093 10.147 9.044 1.103 November 2009 9.979 8.742 1.238 December 2009 9.975 8.771 1.204 January 2010 9.687 8.510 1.176 February 2010 9.687 8.497 1.190 March 2010 9.749 8.550 1.199 April 2010 9.863 8.654 1.209 May 2010 9.698 8.505 1.193 June 2010 9.512 8.371 1.140 July 2010 9.507 8.403 1.104 August 2010 9.643 8.538 1.105 September 2010 9.579 8.466 1.113 October 2010 9.644 8.564 1.080 November 2010 9.817 8.670 1.148 October 2009 Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), JOLTS, CPS. Bottomleft panel Mismatch Indices by Occupation Indices Period Mu Mh July 2005 0.365 0.126 August 2005 0.368 0.130 September 2005 0.372 0.132 October 2005 0.374 0.133 November 2005 0.373 0.136 December 2005 0.373 0.135 January 2006 0.375 0.134 February 2006 0.374 0.129 March 2006 0.368 0.125 April 2006 0.361 0.124 May 2006 0.358 0.124 June 2006 0.357 0.125 July 2006 0.355 0.124 August 2006 0.360 0.127 Period Mu Mh September 2006 0.359 0.128 October 2006 0.365 0.130 November 2006 0.366 0.130 December 2006 0.372 0.131 January 2007 0.370 0.129 February 2007 0.368 0.131 March 2007 0.369 0.137 April 2007 0.375 0.142 May 2007 0.380 0.144 June 2007 0.382 0.143 July 2007 0.383 0.142 August 2007 0.378 0.139 September 2007 0.379 0.138 October 2007 0.376 0.137 November 2007 0.373 0.137 December 2007 0.368 0.134 January 2008 0.369 0.137 February 2008 0.375 0.138 March 2008 0.381 0.143 April 2008 0.381 0.144 May 2008 0.381 0.144 June 2008 0.380 0.142 July 2008 0.382 0.142 August 2008 0.377 0.139 September 2008 0.375 0.140 October 2008 0.372 0.137 November 2008 0.378 0.140 December 2008 0.382 0.141 January 2009 0.392 0.144 February 2009 0.394 0.144 March 2009 0.392 0.142 April 2009 0.386 0.139 May 2009 0.383 0.140 June 2009 0.384 0.141 July 2009 0.385 0.139 August 2009 0.383 0.138 September 2009 0.384 0.138 October 2009 0.388 0.143 November 2009 0.394 0.143 December 2009 0.395 0.141 January 2010 0.385 0.135 February 2010 0.372 0.130 March 2010 0.367 0.131 April 2010 0.366 0.131 May 2010 0.368 0.131 June 2010 0.365 0.126 July 2010 0.360 0.124 August 2010 0.360 0.124 Period Mu Mh September 2010 0.357 0.125 October 2010 0.355 0.124 November 2010 0.348 0.122 Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series, CPS. Series 3Month Moving Average. Bottomright panel Actual and Counterfactual Unemployment (Occupation) Rate Period Unemployment Rate Counterfactual Unemployment Difference May 2005 5.126 4.335 0.791 June 2005 5.042 4.336 0.706 July 2005 4.956 4.096 0.861 August 2005 4.904 3.979 0.925 September 2005 5.037 4.024 1.013 October 2005 4.969 3.873 1.096 November 2005 5.042 3.886 1.156 December 2005 4.852 3.628 1.223 January 2006 4.700 3.465 1.235 February 2006 4.770 3.513 1.257 March 2006 4.690 3.406 1.284 April 2006 4.719 3.438 1.282 May 2006 4.618 3.315 1.303 June 2006 4.623 3.319 1.304 July 2006 4.726 3.406 1.320 August 2006 4.677 3.343 1.334 September 2006 4.519 3.173 1.346 October 2006 4.426 3.107 1.319 November 2006 4.518 3.181 1.337 December 2006 4.443 3.092 1.350 January 2007 4.627 3.276 1.351 February 2007 4.510 3.137 1.373 March 2007 4.393 3.025 1.368 April 2007 4.488 3.093 1.394 May 2007 4.430 3.018 1.412 June 2007 4.552 3.124 1.427 July 2007 4.648 3.188 1.460 August 2007 4.645 3.168 1.476 September 2007 4.694 3.222 1.472 October 2007 4.749 3.248 1.501 November 2007 4.737 3.242 1.495 December 2007 5.002 3.482 1.520 January 2008 4.952 3.412 1.540 February 2008 4.841 3.296 1.545 March 2008 5.062 3.506 1.556 April 2008 4.957 3.360 1.597 May 2008 5.438 3.817 1.621 June 2008 5.547 3.854 1.693 Period Unemployment Rate Counterfactual Unemployment Difference July 2008 5.761 4.049 1.712 August 2008 6.147 4.367 1.780 September 2008 6.190 4.379 1.811 October 2008 6.569 4.719 1.850 November 2008 6.871 4.951 1.920 December 2008 7.375 5.400 1.974 January 2009 7.733 5.659 2.074 February 2009 8.234 6.092 2.142 March 2009 8.634 6.417 2.217 April 2009 8.930 6.667 2.263 May 2009 9.369 7.051 2.318 June 2009 9.512 7.113 2.400 July 2009 9.416 6.966 2.451 August 2009 9.709 7.237 2.472 September 2009 9.848 7.314 2.534 October 2009 10.147 7.571 2.576 November 2009 9.979 7.328 2.651 December 2009 9.975 7.297 2.678 January 2010 9.687 6.996 2.691 February 2010 9.687 7.016 2.671 March 2010 9.749 7.086 2.663 April 2010 9.863 7.189 2.674 May 2010 9.698 7.010 2.688 June 2010 9.512 6.830 2.681 July 2010 9.507 6.846 2.661 August 2010 9.643 6.997 2.646 September 2010 9.579 6.930 2.649 October 2010 9.644 6.997 2.647 November 2010 9.817 7.177 2.640 Note: Şahin, Song, Topa, Violante (2010), The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series, CPS. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Exhibit 9 House Lock and Geographic Mismatch Top panel Rates of Migration between States Interstate Migration Rate (%) Period Published Data NonImputed Data 1996 2.485 2.404 1997 2.429 2.287 1998 2.396 2.276 1999 2.805 2.307 2000 3.119 2.347 2001 2.816 2.047 Period Published Data NonImputed Data 2002 2.793 2.065 2003 2.700 1.955 2004 2.582 1.830 2005 2.591 1.928 2006 1.960 1.872 2007 1.661 1.648 2008 1.603 1.573 2009 1.568 1.560 2010 1.442 1.385 Note: Kaplan and SchulhoferWohl (2010), CPS. Bottom panel Average Unemployment Duration by 12Month Change in StateLevel House Price Average Duration (in weeks) Percent Change in House Prices Owner Renter 32 22.428 16.168 30 20.672 19.550 28 24.501 22.370 26 20.883 19.472 24 21.865 20.210 22 20.423 19.332 20 22.297 23.296 18 21.731 23.291 16 22.253 21.048 14 23.819 21.109 12 23.967 22.303 10 25.485 24.219 8 24.863 24.072 6 26.010 25.503 4 25.213 24.650 2 23.380 23.713 0 21.910 22.501 2 17.755 17.934 4 15.454 15.562 6 15.114 15.347 8 15.854 16.681 10 16.091 17.282 12 16.945 18.034 14 17.262 15.830 16 17.522 16.666 18 19.800 17.757 20 20.829 18.964 22 17.949 18.624 24 19.146 18.636 26 15.574 16.649 28 15.538 20.306 30 16.574 15.129 32 16.057 13.352 Note: Foote and Ryan (2011), CPS, FHFA. Exhibit 10 Longterm Unemployment and Hysteresis Top panel UnemploymenttoEmployment Outflow Rates by Unemployment Duration Rate Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks January 1977 0.307 0.232 0.190 0.146 February 1977 0.307 0.232 0.188 0.145 March 1977 0.311 0.234 0.194 0.145 April 1977 0.311 0.238 0.194 0.145 May 1977 0.312 0.239 0.195 0.145 June 1977 0.314 0.242 0.198 0.152 July 1977 0.313 0.239 0.196 0.153 August 1977 0.314 0.243 0.196 0.155 September 1977 0.316 0.243 0.194 0.155 October 1977 0.319 0.244 0.196 0.154 November 1977 0.320 0.244 0.198 0.152 December 1977 0.322 0.244 0.199 0.159 January 1978 0.329 0.250 0.202 0.167 February 1978 0.332 0.253 0.205 0.174 March 1978 0.329 0.251 0.204 0.172 April 1978 0.329 0.250 0.207 0.175 May 1978 0.332 0.251 0.209 0.173 June 1978 0.334 0.256 0.212 0.175 July 1978 0.331 0.257 0.216 0.173 August 1978 0.333 0.255 0.221 0.169 September 1978 0.338 0.258 0.220 0.169 October 1978 0.341 0.261 0.222 0.171 November 1978 0.344 0.266 0.224 0.179 December 1978 0.340 0.259 0.225 0.177 January 1979 0.336 0.257 0.222 0.172 February 1979 0.335 0.257 0.222 0.168 March 1979 0.336 0.261 0.221 0.168 April 1979 0.333 0.259 0.216 0.166 May 1979 0.334 0.259 0.218 0.172 June 1979 0.335 0.258 0.222 0.167 July 1979 0.337 0.262 0.220 0.163 August 1979 0.337 0.263 0.220 0.164 September 1979 0.334 0.263 0.223 0.163 October 1979 0.331 0.263 0.218 0.162 November 1979 0.331 0.262 0.219 0.158 December 1979 0.334 0.264 0.220 0.155 January 1980 0.332 0.260 0.218 0.152 February 1980 0.332 0.257 0.223 0.155 March 1980 0.332 0.253 0.220 0.156 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 1980 0.335 0.249 0.215 0.152 May 1980 0.333 0.248 0.214 0.147 June 1980 0.328 0.242 0.206 0.146 July 1980 0.326 0.237 0.204 0.147 August 1980 0.326 0.236 0.204 0.147 September 1980 0.322 0.235 0.201 0.147 October 1980 0.324 0.233 0.205 0.148 November 1980 0.321 0.230 0.205 0.146 December 1980 0.320 0.233 0.205 0.146 January 1981 0.321 0.235 0.207 0.146 February 1981 0.317 0.233 0.201 0.142 March 1981 0.317 0.236 0.200 0.141 April 1981 0.317 0.238 0.208 0.145 May 1981 0.313 0.239 0.202 0.143 June 1981 0.312 0.240 0.202 0.148 July 1981 0.312 0.243 0.207 0.152 August 1981 0.308 0.241 0.204 0.151 September 1981 0.307 0.238 0.203 0.148 October 1981 0.305 0.235 0.200 0.150 November 1981 0.304 0.234 0.198 0.149 December 1981 0.302 0.232 0.194 0.148 January 1982 0.302 0.229 0.192 0.150 February 1982 0.301 0.227 0.191 0.146 March 1982 0.299 0.223 0.190 0.146 April 1982 0.295 0.218 0.182 0.143 May 1982 0.295 0.215 0.184 0.142 June 1982 0.292 0.211 0.181 0.136 July 1982 0.290 0.206 0.174 0.134 August 1982 0.288 0.204 0.173 0.132 September 1982 0.287 0.203 0.171 0.131 October 1982 0.281 0.200 0.168 0.125 November 1982 0.277 0.196 0.163 0.122 December 1982 0.277 0.195 0.163 0.123 January 1983 0.276 0.193 0.162 0.122 February 1983 0.274 0.193 0.161 0.122 March 1983 0.273 0.191 0.161 0.121 April 1983 0.272 0.191 0.163 0.120 May 1983 0.269 0.192 0.163 0.120 June 1983 0.272 0.194 0.167 0.121 July 1983 0.269 0.197 0.168 0.121 August 1983 0.270 0.200 0.173 0.121 September 1983 0.271 0.202 0.177 0.123 October 1983 0.273 0.203 0.177 0.126 November 1983 0.277 0.207 0.183 0.129 December 1983 0.278 0.208 0.185 0.129 January 1984 0.279 0.211 0.191 0.133 February 1984 0.282 0.217 0.196 0.137 March 1984 0.283 0.219 0.201 0.141 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 1984 0.284 0.222 0.203 0.142 May 1984 0.288 0.223 0.206 0.145 June 1984 0.291 0.225 0.208 0.151 July 1984 0.295 0.227 0.207 0.150 August 1984 0.299 0.229 0.204 0.153 September 1984 0.297 0.230 0.199 0.154 October 1984 0.299 0.233 0.203 0.155 November 1984 0.301 0.235 0.202 0.154 December 1984 0.300 0.234 0.198 0.151 January 1985 0.301 0.235 0.197 0.150 February 1985 0.304 0.235 0.197 0.151 March 1985 0.308 0.237 0.196 0.150 April 1985 0.309 0.239 0.195 0.149 May 1985 0.310 0.242 0.200 0.151 June 1985 0.308 0.241 0.198 0.146 July 1985 0.307 0.240 0.203 0.147 August 1985 0.307 0.239 0.207 0.145 September 1985 0.309 0.240 0.215 0.146 October 1985 0.310 0.240 0.219 0.145 November 1985 0.310 0.240 0.222 0.144 December 1985 0.309 0.239 0.228 0.146 January 1986 0.312 0.244 0.229 0.146 February 1986 0.307 0.241 0.229 0.142 March 1986 0.303 0.241 0.232 0.141 April 1986 0.303 0.238 0.233 0.143 May 1986 0.305 0.237 0.231 0.140 June 1986 0.306 0.236 0.231 0.141 July 1986 0.306 0.232 0.230 0.140 August 1986 0.307 0.232 0.230 0.140 September 1986 0.305 0.230 0.225 0.139 October 1986 0.305 0.230 0.223 0.140 November 1986 0.306 0.230 0.219 0.141 December 1986 0.309 0.233 0.220 0.147 January 1987 0.309 0.230 0.219 0.148 February 1987 0.311 0.231 0.218 0.149 March 1987 0.312 0.231 0.215 0.151 April 1987 0.317 0.234 0.220 0.150 May 1987 0.318 0.234 0.216 0.154 June 1987 0.318 0.237 0.218 0.155 July 1987 0.323 0.244 0.220 0.158 August 1987 0.321 0.243 0.221 0.158 September 1987 0.326 0.245 0.223 0.159 October 1987 0.329 0.248 0.224 0.159 November 1987 0.327 0.250 0.223 0.163 December 1987 0.329 0.251 0.223 0.161 January 1988 0.329 0.250 0.220 0.160 February 1988 0.332 0.251 0.224 0.160 March 1988 0.333 0.252 0.222 0.159 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 1988 0.337 0.254 0.220 0.164 May 1988 0.336 0.258 0.220 0.160 June 1988 0.343 0.261 0.218 0.160 July 1988 0.342 0.258 0.219 0.163 August 1988 0.344 0.259 0.221 0.164 September 1988 0.348 0.263 0.224 0.163 October 1988 0.344 0.261 0.227 0.163 November 1988 0.345 0.259 0.226 0.164 December 1988 0.344 0.258 0.229 0.165 January 1989 0.342 0.258 0.234 0.166 February 1989 0.344 0.264 0.232 0.170 March 1989 0.348 0.265 0.233 0.171 April 1989 0.342 0.263 0.229 0.168 May 1989 0.344 0.263 0.235 0.169 June 1989 0.342 0.262 0.237 0.174 July 1989 0.340 0.263 0.233 0.169 August 1989 0.340 0.263 0.230 0.171 September 1989 0.343 0.261 0.228 0.179 October 1989 0.346 0.261 0.224 0.178 November 1989 0.354 0.266 0.229 0.176 December 1989 0.353 0.264 0.227 0.172 January 1990 0.354 0.265 0.226 0.175 February 1990 0.359 0.263 0.230 0.173 March 1990 0.355 0.265 0.231 0.171 April 1990 0.354 0.262 0.232 0.168 May 1990 0.353 0.259 0.230 0.170 June 1990 0.350 0.262 0.232 0.169 July 1990 0.348 0.261 0.233 0.170 August 1990 0.348 0.266 0.235 0.170 September 1990 0.338 0.261 0.230 0.159 October 1990 0.338 0.261 0.228 0.160 November 1990 0.334 0.259 0.224 0.159 December 1990 0.331 0.258 0.224 0.161 January 1991 0.328 0.257 0.220 0.154 February 1991 0.322 0.254 0.215 0.153 March 1991 0.321 0.248 0.215 0.155 April 1991 0.324 0.246 0.215 0.155 May 1991 0.325 0.246 0.213 0.151 June 1991 0.320 0.237 0.206 0.146 July 1991 0.319 0.234 0.204 0.147 August 1991 0.319 0.230 0.199 0.149 September 1991 0.320 0.232 0.201 0.153 October 1991 0.315 0.230 0.202 0.154 November 1991 0.314 0.227 0.201 0.155 December 1991 0.313 0.224 0.198 0.154 January 1992 0.318 0.225 0.200 0.156 February 1992 0.313 0.222 0.195 0.154 March 1992 0.312 0.221 0.192 0.152 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 1992 0.308 0.225 0.192 0.153 May 1992 0.305 0.224 0.189 0.153 June 1992 0.304 0.224 0.187 0.149 July 1992 0.308 0.226 0.187 0.151 August 1992 0.302 0.223 0.186 0.145 September 1992 0.299 0.221 0.181 0.145 October 1992 0.305 0.222 0.183 0.144 November 1992 0.303 0.219 0.186 0.141 December 1992 0.307 0.222 0.186 0.143 January 1993 0.303 0.219 0.183 0.144 February 1993 0.303 0.219 0.184 0.146 March 1993 0.301 0.222 0.184 0.148 April 1993 0.304 0.221 0.184 0.152 May 1993 0.305 0.221 0.183 0.155 June 1993 0.305 0.218 0.186 0.155 July 1993 0.305 0.225 0.187 0.153 August 1993 0.308 0.224 0.188 0.152 September 1993 0.313 0.227 0.188 0.151 October 1993 0.307 0.230 0.183 0.150 November 1993 0.308 0.232 0.179 0.148 December 1993 0.308 0.233 0.182 0.149 January 1994 0.313 0.238 0.185 0.149 February 1994 0.316 0.240 0.189 0.149 March 1994 0.321 0.241 0.191 0.152 April 1994 0.326 0.243 0.191 0.150 May 1994 0.330 0.248 0.194 0.152 June 1994 0.336 0.253 0.196 0.155 July 1994 0.336 0.250 0.193 0.154 August 1994 0.340 0.253 0.194 0.157 September 1994 0.343 0.256 0.199 0.158 October 1994 0.350 0.254 0.201 0.159 November 1994 0.352 0.255 0.205 0.163 December 1994 0.358 0.257 0.207 0.161 January 1995 0.358 0.258 0.205 0.161 February 1995 0.364 0.259 0.208 0.164 March 1995 0.368 0.260 0.212 0.159 April 1995 0.368 0.259 0.210 0.157 May 1995 0.367 0.256 0.210 0.154 June 1995 0.364 0.257 0.211 0.152 July 1995 0.364 0.257 0.216 0.153 August 1995 0.364 0.258 0.219 0.151 September 1995 0.361 0.252 0.221 0.149 October 1995 0.362 0.254 0.225 0.148 November 1995 0.365 0.256 0.223 0.149 December 1995 0.359 0.252 0.217 0.147 January 1996 0.360 0.252 0.212 0.145 February 1996 0.361 0.250 0.210 0.143 March 1996 0.358 0.252 0.202 0.144 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 1996 0.355 0.249 0.204 0.144 May 1996 0.359 0.254 0.207 0.144 June 1996 0.359 0.254 0.202 0.141 July 1996 0.362 0.249 0.200 0.140 August 1996 0.367 0.250 0.200 0.144 September 1996 0.369 0.253 0.199 0.142 October 1996 0.369 0.255 0.198 0.145 November 1996 0.369 0.256 0.199 0.144 December 1996 0.370 0.256 0.202 0.145 January 1997 0.371 0.258 0.208 0.145 February 1997 0.368 0.259 0.206 0.148 March 1997 0.369 0.259 0.210 0.150 April 1997 0.371 0.259 0.211 0.148 May 1997 0.373 0.258 0.212 0.155 June 1997 0.377 0.258 0.214 0.156 July 1997 0.378 0.262 0.213 0.159 August 1997 0.374 0.262 0.212 0.156 September 1997 0.372 0.260 0.213 0.154 October 1997 0.376 0.264 0.218 0.152 November 1997 0.374 0.262 0.220 0.152 December 1997 0.379 0.265 0.222 0.153 January 1998 0.380 0.262 0.220 0.154 February 1998 0.381 0.263 0.218 0.151 March 1998 0.379 0.264 0.223 0.154 April 1998 0.384 0.270 0.229 0.159 May 1998 0.380 0.267 0.225 0.157 June 1998 0.380 0.266 0.226 0.163 July 1998 0.381 0.269 0.234 0.162 August 1998 0.383 0.268 0.236 0.163 September 1998 0.387 0.271 0.235 0.167 October 1998 0.388 0.272 0.229 0.172 November 1998 0.386 0.275 0.227 0.176 December 1998 0.383 0.275 0.231 0.174 January 1999 0.383 0.275 0.232 0.178 February 1999 0.384 0.274 0.236 0.180 March 1999 0.390 0.276 0.238 0.174 April 1999 0.385 0.276 0.234 0.176 May 1999 0.387 0.277 0.236 0.172 June 1999 0.388 0.276 0.235 0.177 July 1999 0.389 0.275 0.231 0.182 August 1999 0.389 0.277 0.228 0.181 September 1999 0.390 0.282 0.231 0.188 October 1999 0.387 0.279 0.229 0.177 November 1999 0.394 0.277 0.233 0.176 December 1999 0.398 0.279 0.230 0.176 January 2000 0.401 0.284 0.235 0.176 February 2000 0.399 0.283 0.237 0.178 March 2000 0.398 0.287 0.237 0.181 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 2000 0.400 0.285 0.236 0.184 May 2000 0.397 0.285 0.238 0.185 June 2000 0.399 0.288 0.241 0.179 July 2000 0.397 0.286 0.236 0.177 August 2000 0.397 0.287 0.232 0.179 September 2000 0.400 0.286 0.229 0.179 October 2000 0.402 0.286 0.231 0.190 November 2000 0.401 0.287 0.229 0.193 December 2000 0.394 0.288 0.229 0.195 January 2001 0.391 0.286 0.225 0.193 February 2001 0.396 0.288 0.219 0.191 March 2001 0.394 0.281 0.216 0.189 April 2001 0.392 0.280 0.211 0.180 May 2001 0.396 0.282 0.207 0.180 June 2001 0.394 0.285 0.208 0.177 July 2001 0.393 0.279 0.209 0.172 August 2001 0.392 0.281 0.212 0.174 September 2001 0.386 0.276 0.209 0.168 October 2001 0.378 0.274 0.206 0.163 November 2001 0.374 0.272 0.204 0.160 December 2001 0.375 0.270 0.201 0.159 January 2002 0.371 0.265 0.200 0.158 February 2002 0.368 0.265 0.203 0.163 March 2002 0.364 0.264 0.200 0.164 April 2002 0.359 0.262 0.199 0.169 May 2002 0.356 0.258 0.197 0.166 June 2002 0.348 0.248 0.191 0.164 July 2002 0.343 0.251 0.188 0.162 August 2002 0.340 0.246 0.189 0.161 September 2002 0.340 0.246 0.190 0.157 October 2002 0.339 0.242 0.190 0.159 November 2002 0.338 0.240 0.186 0.157 December 2002 0.335 0.239 0.186 0.154 January 2003 0.334 0.239 0.186 0.157 February 2003 0.328 0.234 0.182 0.148 March 2003 0.325 0.232 0.180 0.147 April 2003 0.326 0.232 0.184 0.144 May 2003 0.328 0.228 0.187 0.143 June 2003 0.328 0.230 0.189 0.142 July 2003 0.328 0.229 0.187 0.141 August 2003 0.329 0.230 0.185 0.139 September 2003 0.325 0.228 0.185 0.141 October 2003 0.327 0.229 0.183 0.141 November 2003 0.325 0.228 0.182 0.140 December 2003 0.329 0.228 0.188 0.143 January 2004 0.334 0.225 0.186 0.141 February 2004 0.333 0.228 0.185 0.141 March 2004 0.335 0.228 0.184 0.140 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 2004 0.338 0.231 0.186 0.144 May 2004 0.335 0.234 0.182 0.145 June 2004 0.335 0.233 0.184 0.149 July 2004 0.339 0.235 0.193 0.153 August 2004 0.335 0.230 0.194 0.154 September 2004 0.343 0.236 0.197 0.155 October 2004 0.343 0.241 0.203 0.153 November 2004 0.345 0.241 0.208 0.153 December 2004 0.346 0.241 0.205 0.152 January 2005 0.343 0.242 0.207 0.152 February 2005 0.346 0.241 0.210 0.154 March 2005 0.348 0.241 0.213 0.155 April 2005 0.347 0.242 0.217 0.155 May 2005 0.345 0.240 0.220 0.155 June 2005 0.347 0.244 0.225 0.154 July 2005 0.342 0.240 0.220 0.154 August 2005 0.345 0.245 0.216 0.157 September 2005 0.340 0.244 0.220 0.156 October 2005 0.341 0.240 0.219 0.156 November 2005 0.343 0.242 0.212 0.159 December 2005 0.342 0.241 0.211 0.157 January 2006 0.344 0.244 0.210 0.157 February 2006 0.347 0.245 0.211 0.158 March 2006 0.350 0.244 0.212 0.158 April 2006 0.349 0.245 0.209 0.153 May 2006 0.349 0.247 0.209 0.159 June 2006 0.355 0.246 0.210 0.160 July 2006 0.358 0.249 0.214 0.160 August 2006 0.358 0.249 0.218 0.159 September 2006 0.363 0.253 0.218 0.161 October 2006 0.362 0.257 0.219 0.160 November 2006 0.364 0.256 0.224 0.157 December 2006 0.365 0.261 0.226 0.162 January 2007 0.363 0.262 0.226 0.163 February 2007 0.365 0.265 0.232 0.161 March 2007 0.369 0.269 0.232 0.164 April 2007 0.369 0.264 0.232 0.168 May 2007 0.373 0.265 0.229 0.162 June 2007 0.370 0.266 0.222 0.160 July 2007 0.368 0.266 0.220 0.159 August 2007 0.370 0.270 0.218 0.157 September 2007 0.364 0.264 0.213 0.154 October 2007 0.365 0.261 0.212 0.154 November 2007 0.365 0.258 0.210 0.156 December 2007 0.364 0.255 0.211 0.153 January 2008 0.362 0.252 0.213 0.153 February 2008 0.361 0.248 0.209 0.154 March 2008 0.357 0.246 0.209 0.152 Period < 5 Weeks 514 Weeks 1526 Weeks > 27 Weeks April 2008 0.356 0.248 0.207 0.151 May 2008 0.357 0.248 0.205 0.150 June 2008 0.351 0.244 0.205 0.148 July 2008 0.350 0.241 0.203 0.145 August 2008 0.346 0.237 0.202 0.141 September 2008 0.346 0.234 0.198 0.140 October 2008 0.347 0.233 0.198 0.136 November 2008 0.340 0.231 0.197 0.134 December 2008 0.335 0.228 0.189 0.132 January 2009 0.332 0.223 0.184 0.128 February 2009 0.320 0.218 0.178 0.122 March 2009 0.313 0.213 0.173 0.115 April 2009 0.311 0.209 0.170 0.111 May 2009 0.302 0.199 0.162 0.108 June 2009 0.300 0.195 0.157 0.107 July 2009 0.298 0.195 0.154 0.106 August 2009 0.293 0.189 0.149 0.104 September 2009 0.292 0.185 0.145 0.101 October 2009 0.290 0.180 0.138 0.099 November 2009 0.288 0.179 0.135 0.097 December 2009 0.289 0.177 0.135 0.096 January 2010 0.290 0.177 0.134 0.095 February 2010 0.293 0.176 0.132 0.094 March 2010 0.298 0.178 0.132 0.096 April 2010 0.301 0.180 0.135 0.096 May 2010 0.304 0.183 0.138 0.098 June 2010 0.304 0.184 0.139 0.096 July 2010 0.305 0.183 0.139 0.098 August 2010 0.306 0.184 0.139 0.098 Note: CPS. Series 12Month Moving Average. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: January 1980July 1980, July 1981November 1982, July 1990March 1991, March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Bottom panel Unemployment Inflow and Outflow Rates by OECD Countries Percent Country Outflow Rate Inflow Rate Australia 22.8 1.7 Canada 26.1 2.4 France 7.7 0.7 Germany 6.0 0.5 Ireland 5.9 0.6 Italy 4.3 0.4 Japan 18.9 0.6 New Zealand 28.5 1.7 Norway 38.5 1.6 Portugal 6.3 0.4 Spain 6.3 1.1 29.2 1.2 Sweden Outflow Rate Inflow Rate United Kingdom Country 13.9 1.0 United States 56.5 3.6 24.57 2.61 United States (2010) Note: Elsby, Hobijn, Şahin (2009), OECD. Exhibit 11 Summary The following factors have had a measurable effect on the unemployment rate during 20072010: Estimated effect on U Extended unemployment insurance benefits: + 0.4 to 1.7 percentage points (preferred estimate around + 0.8 percentage point) Decline in the recruiting intensity of firms: + 1.4 percentage points Skill mismatch across industries: + 0.8 percentage point Skill mismatch across occupations: + 1.4 percentage points Note: These effects are not additive. The following factors have had no measurable effect on the unemployment rate during 20072010: House lock Geographic mismatch Problems facing the U.S. labor market are unlikely to be as severe as the Europeanstyle hysteresis problem of the 1980s. Exhibit 12 Last Exhibit Board and Reserve Bank Staff Estimates Top panel Tealbook Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas City Dallas San Franciso Pre Crisis 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 7.4 5.0 5.0 5.25 5.0 Current 6.6 6.25 6.25 6.75 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.0 8.9 7.5 5.5 5.3 6.25 Increase 1.6 1.25 1.25 1.75 .9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.5 .5 .05 1.25 2015* 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.25 5.9 6.3 5.5 5.2 7.9 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.25 * St. Louis estimate is for 2013. Return to table Bottomleft panel Distribution of Estimates PreCrisis Percent of labor force Number of estimates 4.5 1 5.0 10 Percent of labor force Number of estimates 5.25 1 7.4 1 Percent of labor force Number of estimates 5.3 1 5.5 1 5.9 1 6.25 3 6.5 1 6.6 1 6.75 1 7.0 2 7.5 1 8.9 1 Percent of labor force Number of estimates 5.0 1 5.2 2 5.3 4 5.5 3 5.9 1 6.3 1 7.9 1 Current 2015 Bottomright panel Estimated Increase PreCrisis to Current Percentage points Number of estimates 0.05 1 0.5 1 0.9 1 1.25 3 1.5 1 1.6 1 1.75 1 2.0 3 2.5 1 Appendix 2: Materials used by Mr. Sack Material for FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations Brian Sack January 25, 2011 Class II FOMC Restricted FR Exhibit 1 Topleft panel (1) Title: Treasury Yields Series: 2year, 5year, and 10year Treasury yields Horizon: January 1, 2010 January 21, 2011 Description: Treasury yields leveled out following their sharp increases in the last two months of 2010. Source: Bloomberg Topright panel (2) Title: Implied Federal Funds Rate Path Series: Future federal funds rates implied by Eurodollar and federal funds futures contracts Horizon: 11/02/10 and 01/21/11 Description: The implied path of the fed funds rate increased since the November FOMC meeting. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middleleft panel (3) Title: Cumulative Size of Asset Purchase Program Series: FRBNY policy survey Horizon: November Survey, January Survey Description: The primary dealer survey shows that the expectations have solidified around $600 billion for the size of the program. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey Middleright panel (4) Title: 10Year Term Premium* (KimWright Model) Series: 10Year Term Premium (KimWright Model) Horizon: January 2000 January 2011 Description: The KimWright model estimated by the Board staff has returned the 10year term premium to within its historical range. * Based on zero coupon Treasury yield. Return to text Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Bottomleft panel (5) Title: Breakeven Inflation Rates Series: 5year spot and 5year, 5year forward rate Horizon: January 4, 2010 January 21, 2011 Description: The forward rate has declined during the intermeeting period, while the 5year spot rate has continued to increase. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Bottomright panel (6) Title: Treasury Debt Outstanding Series: Current debt limit, projected path without SFP rolloff, and projected path with SFP rolloff Horizon: October 1, 2010 May 1, 2011 Description: If the Treasury reduces the balance of its Supplementary Finance Program, the date when the debt ceiling will be reached will be moved out to midApril. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Exhibit 2 Topleft panel (7) Title: S&P 500 Index Series: S&P 500 index Horizon: August 3, 2009 January 21, 2011 Description: The S&P 500 has increased during the intermeeting period. Source: Bloomberg Topright panel (8) Title: 5Month Change in the S&P 500 Series: S&P 500 Horizon: January 1, 1995 January 21, 2011 Description: The current 5month change in the S&P 500 is about 22% a pace that has only been matched on a few occasions in the past 15 years. Source: Bloomberg Middleleft panel (9) Title: Corporate Bonds Spreads Series: High yield and Investment grade yields Horizon: August 3, 2009 January 21, 2011 Description: Yield spreads narrowed for both investmentgrade and highyield issues during the intermeeting period. Source: Bank of America Middleright panel (10) Title: CMBS and ABS Spreads Series: Super senior AAA CMBS and AAA credit card ABS Horizon: August 3, 2009 January 21, 2011 Description: Spreads for CMBS have narrowed during the intermeeting period and ABS has remained at low levels. Source: JPMorgan Chase Bottomleft panel (11) Title: U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Series: Broad dollar Horizon: August 3, 2009 January 21, 2011 Description: The dollar depreciated against most currencies during the intermeeting period. Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Bloomberg Bottomright panel (12) Title: 3Month Funding Spreads to OIS Series: Euribor Panel (swapped to dollars) and Libor Panel Horizon: August 3, 2009 January 21, 2011 Description: The dollar funding rate that can be achieved through FX swaps declined notably during the intermeeting period. Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 3 Topleft panel (13) Title: Treasury Purchases by Maturity Series: Treasury Purchases Horizon: August 10, 2010 January 21, 2011 Description: The Desk has conducted about $244 billion of purchases of Treasury securities. As shown in the chart, approximate values are 1.52.5: 4.5%; 2.54: 20.5%; 45.5: 19.5%; 5.57: 22.5%; 710: 22.5%; 1017: 2%; 1730: 4%; TIPS: 3%. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Topright panel (14) Title: Average Bid Size of 10Year Treasury Note Series: Bid size of 10year Treasury note Horizon: January 1, 2010 January 21, 2011 Description: The bid size for the 10year Treasury note has increased during the intermeeting period. Source: BrokerTec Middleleft panel (15) Title: Projected SOMA Reinvestments Series: November FOMC, December FOMC, and January FOMC projected SOMA reinvestments Horizon: January 2011 June 2011 Description: The projected MBS prepayments decreased. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Middleright panel (16) Title: Projected Size of Federal Reserve Securities Holdings* Series: Median securities holdings Horizon: 2009 2015 Description: Market participants expect the FOMC to gradually shrink the SOMA portfolio over time. * Values of end of year estimates. Return to text Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey Bottomleft panel (17) Title: Probability of Halting Reinvestments (Over 2 and 5 Year Horizons) Series: Treasury, Agency, and MBS probabilities Horizon: 2 and 5 year Description: The odds assigned to halting reinvestments of principal payments in each of the asset classes within the next two years were sizable. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey Bottomright panel (18) Title: Probability of Asset Sales (Over 2 and 5 Year Horizons) Series: Treasury, Agency, and MBS probabilities Horizon: 2 and 5 year Description: The odds of asset sales occurring within the next two years were much lower. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Survey Exhibit 4 Topleft panel (19) Title: Balance Sheet Path under Baseline Scenario Series: Total balance sheet path Horizon: 2010 2020 Description: The balance sheet is expected to return to normal levels in 2016. Source: Staff memo to FOMC Topright panel (20) Title: Interest Rate Path under Baseline Scenario Series: 10year Treasury Yield and Federal Funds Rate Horizon: 2010 2020 Description: The federal funds rate is estimated to begin increasing in 2012 and level off at 4½ percent. The 10 year Treasury rate is estimated to increase immediately and level off at 5 percent. Source: Staff memo to FOMC Middleleft panel (21) Title: Net Portfolio Income under Baseline Scenario Series: Funding cost, net coupon income, capital gains and losses*, and the total income Horizon: 2010 2020 Description: SOMA income is elevated through 2013, falls, and again rises after 2018. * Capital G/L represents the average between the FRBNY and the Board. Return to text Source: Staff memo to FOMC Middleright panel (22) Title: Treasury Remittances under Baseline Scenario Series: Net portfolio income and remittances to Treasury under baseline Horizon: 2010 2020 Description: Even at the lowest point, remittances to Treasury are projected to remain sizeable, at over $25 billion. Source: Staff memo to FOMC Bottomleft panel (23) Title: Effects of Higher Interest Rates on Treasury Remittances Series: Baseline scenario and High rate scenario Horizon: 2010 2020 Description: At higher rates the amount remitted to the Treasury could fall close to zero because of higher funding costs for the portfolio and larger capital losses on the assets sold. Source: Staff memo to FOMC Bottomright panel (24) Title: Effects of Faster MBS Sales on Treasury Remittances Series: Baseline scenario, Faster MBS sales with baseline rates, and Faster MBS sales with high rates Horizon: 2010 2020 Description: Treasury remittances under the more aggressive scenario decline quicker. Source: Staff memo to FOMC Appendix 3: Materials used by Messrs. Reifschneider and Kamin, and Ms. Liang Material for Staff Presentation on the Economic Outlook January 2526, 2011 Class II FOMC Restricted (FR) Exhibit 1 Recent Nonfinancial Indicators Topleft panel Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions of chained (2005) dollars Period Real PCE December 2006 9219.08 January 2007 9227.11 February 2007 9234.92 March 2007 9243.50 April 2007 9261.78 May 2007 9276.41 June 2007 9273.19 July 2007 9289.02 August 2007 9315.01 September 2007 9325.98 October 2007 9326.32 November 2007 9344.95 December 2007 9355.48 January 2008 9340.00 February 2008 9309.94 March 2008 9322.27 Period Real PCE April 2008 9331.87 May 2008 9326.93 June 2008 9319.88 July 2008 9267.08 August 2008 9256.39 September 2008 9206.97 October 2008 9186.87 November 2008 9182.19 December 2008 9129.79 January 2009 9175.89 February 2009 9161.06 March 2009 9125.45 April 2009 9114.56 May 2009 9117.96 June 2009 9118.41 July 2009 9131.27 August 2009 9212.69 September 2009 9140.85 October 2009 9171.05 November 2009 9178.18 December 2009 9199.34 January 2010 9189.31 February 2010 9228.20 March 2010 9258.61 April 2010 9257.18 May 2010 9280.51 June 2010 9289.27 July 2010 9302.59 August 2010 9333.95 September 2010 9355.42 October 2010 9400.26 November 2010 9427.03 December 2010 (staff estimate) 9448.54 Quarterly averages Billions of chained (2005) dollars Period Real PCE 2010:Q1 9225.37 2010:Q2 9275.66 2010:Q3 9330.65 2010:Q4 (staff estimate) 9425.28 [Inset] Percent change, a.r. 2010:Q3 Current Dec. TB 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2.4 4.1 3.1 (2.0) (2.4) (2.7) Topright panel Manufacturing IP 2007 = 100 Period Index December 2006 98.63 January 2007 98.23 February 2007 98.82 March 2007 99.61 April 2007 100.30 May 2007 100.23 June 2007 100.29 July 2007 100.69 August 2007 100.19 September 2007 100.66 October 2007 100.03 November 2007 100.41 December 2007 100.55 January 2008 100.09 February 2008 99.57 March 2008 99.30 April 2008 98.12 May 2008 97.67 June 2008 97.06 July 2008 96.60 August 2008 95.73 September 2008 92.58 October 2008 92.29 November 2008 90.49 December 2008 88.08 January 2009 85.68 February 2009 85.58 March 2009 84.21 April 2009 83.78 May 2009 83.12 June 2009 82.98 July 2009 84.49 August 2009 85.65 September 2009 86.31 October 2009 86.39 November 2009 87.21 December 2009 87.34 January 2010 88.28 February 2010 88.10 March 2010 89.09 April 2010 89.98 May 2010 90.98 June 2010 90.82 July 2010 91.58 August 2010 91.69 Period Index September 2010 91.86 October 2010 92.26 November 2010 92.48 December 2010 92.89 [Inset] Percent change, a.r. 2010:Q3 5.0 2010:Q4 3.7 2011:Q1 6.9 Middleleft panel Singlefamily Housing Starts and Sales New and existing sales* (Millions of units, a.r.) Starts (Thousands of units, a.r.) December 2006 6.61 1249 January 2007 6.53 1130 February 2007 6.53 1189 March 2007 6.18 1202 April 2007 6.08 1197 May 2007 5.98 1130 June 2007 5.83 1131 July 2007 5.75 1042 August 2007 5.50 957 September 2007 5.17 935 October 2007 5.13 878 November 2007 5.08 833 December 2007 4.98 805 January 2008 5.03 773 February 2008 4.93 724 March 2008 4.91 728 April 2008 4.87 682 May 2008 4.88 679 June 2008 4.81 647 July 2008 4.83 615 August 2008 4.79 607 September 2008 5.03 537 October 2008 4.72 542 November 2008 4.43 459 December 2008 4.62 403 January 2009 4.42 360 February 2009 4.56 362 March 2009 4.48 363 April 2009 4.53 386 May 2009 4.61 406 June 2009 4.73 476 July 2009 4.94 500 August 2009 4.89 482 Period New and existing sales* (Millions of units, a.r.) Starts (Thousands of units, a.r.) September 2009 5.32 507 October 2009 5.63 475 November 2009 6.08 504 December 2009 5.12 486 January 2010 4.78 511 February 2010 4.71 527 March 2010 5.08 535 April 2010 5.47 563 May 2010 5.26 459 June 2010 4.93 450 July 2010 3.65 427 August 2010 3.88 432 September 2010 4.28 447 October 2010 4.17 433 November 2010 4.44 458 Period * December 2010 sales include staff estimate of new home sales. Return to table Middleright panel Change in Private Payroll Employment Period Thousands January 2007 181.00 February 2007 144.67 March 2007 159.33 April 2007 119.00 May 2007 135.00 June 2007 78.00 July 2007 61.33 August 2007 17.33 September 2007 36.00 October 2007 19.33 November 2007 49.33 December 2007 61.67 January 2008 36.00 February 2008 24.67 March 2008 51.67 April 2008 101.33 May 2008 157.33 June 2008 214.67 July 2008 246.67 August 2008 278.00 September 2008 353.33 October 2008 450.00 November 2008 579.00 December 2008 649.33 January 2009 735.67 February 2009 726.67 March 2009 752.33 Period Thousands April 2009 700.00 May 2009 575.67 June 2009 478.33 July 2009 361.00 August 2009 321.33 September 2009 232.67 October 2009 221.00 November 2009 124.33 December 2009 90.00 January 2010 2.67 February 2010 1.67 March 2010 78.67 April 2010 153.67 May 2010 150.00 June 2010 117.67 July 2010 76.33 August 2010 107.00 September 2010 124.00 October 2010 149.33 November 2010 128.00 December 2010 128.33 Note: Threemonth moving average. Bottomleft panel Nearterm GDP Projection (Percent change, annual rate) 2010 Q3 1. Real GDP 2. 3. 4. 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2.6 3.8 3.6 (2.7) (2.5) (3.4) 2.3 4.0 3.9 (Dec. GB) (2.6) (2.7) (3.5) (Dec. TB) PDFP Bottomright panel Consumer Prices Twelvemonth percent change Period Core CPI Core PCE Core marketbased PCE January 2007 2.67 2.54 2.37 February 2007 2.71 2.62 2.40 March 2007 2.45 2.48 2.21 April 2007 2.34 2.34 2.10 May 2007 2.24 2.22 1.98 June 2007 2.22 2.16 1.90 July 2007 2.21 2.23 1.92 August 2007 2.13 2.16 1.78 September 2007 2.14 2.25 1.87 October 2007 2.17 2.29 2.00 November 2007 2.33 2.42 2.17 Period Core CPI Core PCE Core marketbased PCE December 2007 2.44 2.50 2.30 January 2008 2.47 2.32 2.18 February 2008 2.27 2.22 2.11 March 2008 2.35 2.38 2.23 April 2008 2.26 2.45 2.23 May 2008 2.31 2.55 2.29 June 2008 2.41 2.63 2.39 July 2008 2.51 2.64 2.53 August 2008 2.54 2.57 2.59 September 2008 2.47 2.43 2.56 October 2008 2.22 2.17 2.37 November 2008 2.00 2.02 2.24 December 2008 1.76 1.78 2.02 January 2009 1.68 1.63 2.00 February 2009 1.79 1.62 2.08 March 2009 1.76 1.47 2.09 April 2009 1.90 1.54 2.20 May 2009 1.83 1.48 2.12 June 2009 1.73 1.42 2.03 July 2009 1.53 1.32 1.81 August 2009 1.44 1.32 1.77 September 2009 1.51 1.33 1.70 October 2009 1.71 1.60 1.75 November 2009 1.70 1.67 1.73 December 2009 1.82 1.78 1.75 January 2010 1.55 1.79 1.58 February 2010 1.34 1.75 1.41 March 2010 1.11 1.78 1.28 April 2010 0.92 1.54 1.11 May 2010 0.94 1.48 1.10 June 2010 0.90 1.37 1.09 July 2010 0.87 1.32 1.12 August 2010 0.89 1.24 1.08 September 2010 0.80 1.09 0.95 October 2010 0.61 0.83 0.70 November 2010 0.77 0.80 0.75 December 2010 0.80 0.78 0.78 Note: December 2010 values for core PCE prices and core marketbased PCE prices are staff estimates. Exhibit 2 Mediumterm Outlook for Real Activity and Inflation Topleft panel Real GDP Fourquarter percent change Period December Tealbook January Tealbook 2009 0.20 0.20 2010 2.67 2.95 2011 3.73 3.85 2012 4.44 4.45 Forecast Topright panel Unemployment Rate Percent Current December Tealbook 2007:Q1 Period 4.50 ND 2007:Q2 4.48 ND 2007:Q3 4.65 ND 2007:Q4 4.80 ND 2008:Q1 4.95 ND 2008:Q2 5.31 ND 2008:Q3 6.03 ND 2008:Q4 6.91 ND 2009:Q1 8.22 ND 2009:Q2 9.28 ND 2009:Q3 9.68 ND 2009:Q4 10.00 ND 2010:Q1 9.69 ND 2010:Q2 9.65 ND 2010:Q3 9.58 ND 2010:Q4 9.62 9.72 2011:Q1 9.46 9.55 2011:Q2 9.34 9.37 2011:Q3 9.14 9.14 2011:Q4 8.93 8.93 2012:Q1 8.72 8.79 2012:Q2 8.43 8.58 2012:Q3 8.13 8.29 2012:Q4 7.84 8.00 70% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 9.62 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [6.9,8.8]. 90% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 9.62 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [6.3,9.4]. Middleleft panel Core PCE Prices Fourquarter percent change Current December Tealbook 2007:Q1 Period 2.55 ND 2007:Q2 2.24 ND 2007:Q3 2.21 ND 2007:Q4 2.40 ND 2008:Q1 2.31 ND 2008:Q2 2.54 ND 2008:Q3 2.54 ND 2008:Q4 1.99 ND Period Current December Tealbook 2009:Q1 1.57 ND 2009:Q2 1.48 ND 2009:Q3 1.32 ND 2009:Q4 1.69 ND 2010:Q1 1.77 ND 2010:Q2 1.46 ND 2010:Q3 1.22 ND 2010:Q4 0.84 0.92 2011:Q1 0.76 0.87 2011:Q2 0.75 0.84 2011:Q3 0.87 0.86 2011:Q4 0.97 0.90 2012:Q1 0.99 0.88 2012:Q2 1.00 0.88 2012:Q3 1.00 0.89 2012:Q4 1.02 0.93 70% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 0.84 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [0.25,1.9]. 90% confidence interval begins in 2010:Q4 at about 0.84 and ends in 2012:Q4 at about [0.2,2.3]. Middleright panel Dispersion of SPF Forecasts Percentage points Period GDP growth over the next 4 quarters CPI inflation over the next 10 years 2006 0.41 0.49 2007 0.53 0.45 2008 0.93 0.54 2009 0.80 0.57 2010 0.46 0.72 Note: Standard deviation of projections across participants in SPF surveys released in the fourth quarter. Bottomleft panel Real Federal Funds Rate Period Percent 1960:Q1 1.86 1960:Q2 1.75 1960:Q3 1.24 1960:Q4 0.85 1961:Q1 0.69 1961:Q2 0.49 1961:Q3 0.40 1961:Q4 1.20 1962:Q1 1.05 1962:Q2 1.15 1962:Q3 1.52 1962:Q4 1.67 1963:Q1 1.76 1963:Q2 1.78 1963:Q3 2.09 Period Percent 1963:Q4 1.90 1964:Q1 1.80 1964:Q2 1.87 1964:Q3 1.92 1964:Q4 2.27 1965:Q1 2.73 1965:Q2 2.84 1965:Q3 2.82 1965:Q4 2.84 1966:Q1 3.09 1966:Q2 2.93 1966:Q3 2.90 1966:Q4 2.50 1967:Q1 1.71 1967:Q2 1.03 1967:Q3 0.86 1967:Q4 1.01 1968:Q1 1.04 1968:Q2 1.72 1968:Q3 1.47 1968:Q4 1.26 1969:Q1 1.93 1969:Q2 3.65 1969:Q3 4.26 1969:Q4 4.20 1970:Q1 3.84 1970:Q2 3.24 1970:Q3 2.12 1970:Q4 0.75 1971:Q1 1.14 1971:Q2 0.46 1971:Q3 0.63 1971:Q4 0.77 1972:Q1 0.13 1972:Q2 1.10 1972:Q3 1.74 1972:Q4 2.08 1973:Q1 3.75 1973:Q2 4.31 1973:Q3 6.46 1973:Q4 5.11 1974:Q1 3.39 1974:Q2 4.14 1974:Q3 3.37 1974:Q4 0.51 1975:Q1 3.81 1975:Q2 3.67 1975:Q3 1.50 Period Percent 1975:Q4 1.38 1976:Q1 1.50 1976:Q2 0.78 1976:Q3 0.76 1976:Q4 1.10 1977:Q1 1.46 1977:Q2 1.31 1977:Q3 0.77 1977:Q4 0.03 1978:Q1 0.35 1978:Q2 0.66 1978:Q3 1.42 1978:Q4 2.56 1979:Q1 3.30 1979:Q2 2.92 1979:Q3 3.56 1979:Q4 5.90 1980:Q1 6.25 1980:Q2 3.80 1980:Q3 0.55 1980:Q4 6.20 1981:Q1 7.17 1981:Q2 8.75 1981:Q3 8.97 1981:Q4 5.67 1982:Q1 7.11 1982:Q2 7.97 1982:Q3 4.72 1982:Q4 3.37 1983:Q1 2.83 1983:Q2 3.57 1983:Q3 4.31 1983:Q4 4.90 1984:Q1 5.52 1984:Q2 5.98 1984:Q3 7.41 1984:Q4 5.37 1985:Q1 4.36 1985:Q2 4.21 1985:Q3 4.28 1985:Q4 4.37 1986:Q1 4.22 1986:Q2 3.21 1986:Q3 2.40 1986:Q4 2.33 1987:Q1 2.45 1987:Q2 2.90 1987:Q3 3.03 Period Percent 1987:Q4 3.05 1988:Q1 2.68 1988:Q2 2.83 1988:Q3 3.49 1988:Q4 3.93 1989:Q1 4.79 1989:Q2 5.40 1989:Q3 5.24 1989:Q4 4.92 1990:Q1 4.47 1990:Q2 4.02 1990:Q3 3.59 1990:Q4 3.25 1991:Q1 2.16 1991:Q2 2.08 1991:Q3 1.89 1991:Q4 1.04 1992:Q1 0.32 1992:Q2 0.17 1992:Q3 0.05 1992:Q4 0.07 1993:Q1 0.48 1993:Q2 0.54 1993:Q3 0.76 1993:Q4 0.85 1994:Q1 1.13 1994:Q2 1.85 1994:Q3 2.18 1994:Q4 2.81 1995:Q1 3.37 1995:Q2 3.63 1995:Q3 3.59 1995:Q4 3.54 1996:Q1 3.34 1996:Q2 3.36 1996:Q3 3.42 1996:Q4 3.31 1997:Q1 3.25 1997:Q2 3.41 1997:Q3 3.66 1997:Q4 3.85 1998:Q1 4.01 1998:Q2 4.16 1998:Q3 4.06 1998:Q4 3.39 1999:Q1 3.21 1999:Q2 3.25 1999:Q3 3.64 Period Percent 1999:Q4 3.82 2000:Q1 3.96 2000:Q2 4.60 2000:Q3 4.78 2000:Q4 4.65 2001:Q1 3.78 2001:Q2 2.43 2001:Q3 1.79 2001:Q4 0.40 2002:Q1 0.27 2002:Q2 0.08 2002:Q3 0.23 2002:Q4 0.37 2003:Q1 0.46 2003:Q2 0.25 2003:Q3 0.40 2003:Q4 0.48 2004:Q1 0.84 2004:Q2 1.11 2004:Q3 0.75 2004:Q4 0.28 2005:Q1 0.13 2005:Q2 0.71 2005:Q3 1.32 2005:Q4 1.64 2006:Q1 2.34 2006:Q2 2.61 2006:Q3 2.79 2006:Q4 2.94 2007:Q1 2.71 2007:Q2 3.01 2007:Q3 2.86 2007:Q4 2.09 2008:Q1 0.88 2008:Q2 0.46 2008:Q3 0.60 2008:Q4 1.48 2009:Q1 1.39 2009:Q2 1.30 2009:Q3 1.16 2009:Q4 1.57 2010:Q1 1.64 2010:Q2 1.27 2010:Q3 1.03 2010:Q4 0.65 Forecast 2011:Q1 0.63 2011:Q2 0.62 Period Percent 2011:Q3 0.75 2011:Q4 0.84 2012:Q1 0.87 2012:Q2 0.87 2012:Q3 0.87 2012:Q4 0.90 2013:Q1 0.69 2013:Q2 0.32 2013:Q3 0.09 2013:Q4 0.50 2014:Q1 0.92 2014:Q2 1.36 2014:Q3 1.76 2014:Q4 2.10 2015:Q1 2.27 2015:Q2 2.36 2015:Q3 2.43 2015:Q4 2.51 2016:Q1 2.58 2016:Q2 2.65 2016:Q3 2.71 2016:Q4 2.75 Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: April 1960February 1961, December 1969November 1970, November 1973March 1975, January 1980July 1980, July 1981November 1982, July 1990March 1991, March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Bottomright panel Unemployment Effects of Asset Purchases* Percentage points Original 2009 program Original program with reinvestment Current program 2009:Q1 Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 2009:Q2 0.03 0.03 0.03 2009:Q3 0.12 0.12 0.12 2009:Q4 0.24 0.24 0.24 2010:Q1 0.37 0.37 0.37 2010:Q2 0.50 0.50 0.50 2010:Q3 0.61 0.62 0.62 2010:Q4 0.70 0.74 0.75 2011:Q1 0.78 0.85 0.89 2011:Q2 0.85 0.96 1.04 2011:Q3 0.90 1.04 1.18 2011:Q4 0.93 1.12 1.29 2012:Q1 0.95 1.17 1.39 2012:Q2 0.96 1.21 1.46 2012:Q3 0.96 1.23 1.51 2012:Q4 0.94 1.23 1.53 2013:Q1 0.92 1.21 1.52 2013:Q2 0.88 1.18 1.50 2013:Q3 0.83 1.14 1.45 Period Original 2009 program Original program with reinvestment Current program 2013:Q4 0.78 1.08 1.39 2014:Q1 0.73 1.01 1.32 2014:Q2 0.67 0.94 1.23 2014:Q3 0.60 0.86 1.14 2014:Q4 0.54 0.78 1.04 2015:Q1 0.48 0.70 0.94 2015:Q2 0.42 0.62 0.83 2015:Q3 0.36 0.54 0.73 2015:Q4 0.31 0.47 0.63 2016:Q1 0.25 0.39 0.54 * Based on FRB/US simulations, assuming no offsetting changes in the mediumterm path of the federal funds rate. Return to text Exhibit 3 The Pace of Recovery Topleft panel Forces Shaping the Recovery Supportive factors Capital demands Diminishing drag from wealth losses Increasing credit availability Hindering factors Housing sector troubles Nonresidential construction Fading impetus from fiscal policy Topright panel Capital Stocks Fourquarter percent change Period Consumer durable goods Business equipment and software 1960 ND 2.90 1961 1.65 2.21 1962 3.72 3.47 1963 4.75 4.04 1964 5.76 5.28 1965 7.44 7.25 1966 7.78 8.60 1967 6.35 6.64 1968 7.56 6.48 1969 6.35 6.74 1970 4.28 5.17 1971 5.55 4.28 1972 6.84 5.35 1973 7.73 7.30 1974 4.48 6.30 1975 3.80 3.44 Period Consumer durable goods Business equipment and software 1976 5.51 3.67 1977 6.19 5.08 1978 6.04 6.44 1979 4.67 6.60 1980 1.89 4.48 1981 1.86 4.18 1982 1.70 2.14 1983 4.65 2.22 1984 6.78 4.28 1985 7.30 3.99 1986 7.80 3.16 1987 6.56 2.46 1988 6.22 2.95 1989 5.33 3.19 1990 4.02 2.40 1991 1.91 1.48 1992 2.65 1.90 1993 3.35 3.24 1994 4.03 4.24 1995 3.96 5.05 1996 4.40 5.49 1997 4.93 6.17 1998 6.28 6.91 1999 7.69 7.41 2000 7.92 7.39 2001 7.35 4.42 2002 7.33 2.57 2003 6.87 2.25 2004 6.62 2.85 2005 6.19 3.48 2006 5.61 4.14 2007 5.17 3.87 2008 2.91 2.40 2009 1.39 0.83 2010 2.69 1.37 2011 4.20 2.98 2012 5.48 4.21 Forecast Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the NBER: April 1960February 1961, December 1969November 1970, November 1973March 1975, January 1980July 1980, July 1981November 1982, July 1990March 1991, March 2001November 2001, and December 2007June 2009. Middleleft panel Direct Contribution of Wealth to Real PCE Growth Period Fourquarter percent change 2008 0.53 2009 2.31 2010 1.20 Period Fourquarter percent change Forecast 2011 0.56 2012 0.28 Middleright panel Decomposition of Cyclical Recoveries Average 9.7 Real GDP expansion* Current 6.5 Selected contributions (p.p.): Housing 1.3 0.0 Nonres. Structures 0.0 0.5 S&L purchases 0.4 0.2 * Percent change in real GDP, eight quarters after the trough. Return to table Bottomleft panel Fiscal Impetus Fourquarter percent change Period Federal State/local Total 2008 1.08 0.06 1.02 2009 1.22 0.62 0.60 2010 0.67 0.42 0.25 2011 0.13 0.26 0.39 2012 0.95 0.56 0.39 Forecast Bottomright panel State and Local Tax Receipts Period Fourquarter percent change 1997:Q1 5.64 1997:Q2 4.96 1997:Q3 6.13 1997:Q4 5.98 1998:Q1 6.17 1998:Q2 6.80 1998:Q3 5.63 1998:Q4 5.44 1999:Q1 5.22 1999:Q2 4.91 1999:Q3 6.07 1999:Q4 6.66 2000:Q1 7.45 2000:Q2 8.24 2000:Q3 5.51 2000:Q4 4.05 2001:Q1 4.10 2001:Q2 3.25 2001:Q3 0.91 Period Fourquarter percent change 2001:Q4 1.18 2002:Q1 0.70 2002:Q2 1.74 2002:Q3 4.33 2002:Q4 4.51 2003:Q1 4.42 2003:Q2 4.44 2003:Q3 5.45 2003:Q4 6.73 2004:Q1 8.04 2004:Q2 9.23 2004:Q3 7.70 2004:Q4 8.48 2005:Q1 10.22 2005:Q2 10.61 2005:Q3 9.57 2005:Q4 8.82 2006:Q1 8.52 2006:Q2 8.61 2006:Q3 7.05 2006:Q4 5.48 2007:Q1 5.85 2007:Q2 5.16 2007:Q3 4.89 2007:Q4 4.79 2008:Q1 2.38 2008:Q2 3.00 2008:Q3 2.21 2008:Q4 1.78 2009:Q1 4.48 2009:Q2 9.01 2009:Q3 5.51 2009:Q4 0.51 2010:Q1 3.58 2010:Q2 6.92 2010:Q3 5.10 Forecast 2010:Q4 4.38 2011:Q1 3.48 2011:Q2 4.74 2011:Q3 4.74 2011:Q4 4.72 2012:Q1 5.41 2012:Q2 5.49 2012:Q3 5.52 2012:Q4 5.68 Exhibit 4 Household Saving, Sentiment, and Credit Conditions Top panel Personal Saving Rate Percent Period History and TB staff projection Reducedform model projection, starting in 1979:Q4 1980:Q1 9.00 9.11 1980:Q2 9.80 8.92 1980:Q3 9.90 9.22 1980:Q4 10.50 9.84 1981:Q1 9.70 9.76 1981:Q2 9.60 9.29 1981:Q3 11.10 10.83 1981:Q4 11.90 11.33 1982:Q1 11.30 10.68 1982:Q2 11.50 11.06 1982:Q3 11.20 11.10 1982:Q4 9.80 10.71 1983:Q1 9.60 9.99 1983:Q2 8.50 9.27 1983:Q3 8.20 9.21 1983:Q4 8.60 9.55 1984:Q1 9.80 10.18 1984:Q2 10.10 10.56 1984:Q3 10.70 10.92 1984:Q4 10.40 10.92 1985:Q1 8.60 9.79 1985:Q2 9.40 10.30 1985:Q3 7.10 8.99 1985:Q4 7.80 8.92 1986:Q1 8.20 9.07 1986:Q2 8.20 9.12 1986:Q3 7.20 8.47 1986:Q4 6.70 7.71 1987:Q1 7.50 7.47 1987:Q2 5.30 5.78 1987:Q3 6.00 6.41 1987:Q4 7.10 7.10 1988:Q1 6.80 7.35 1988:Q2 7.00 7.34 1988:Q3 7.00 7.33 1988:Q4 6.80 7.36 1989:Q1 7.40 7.58 1989:Q2 6.60 6.87 1989:Q3 6.20 6.84 1989:Q4 6.40 6.87 1990:Q1 6.40 6.82 1990:Q2 6.70 6.86 History and TB staff projection Reducedform model projection, starting in 1979:Q4 1990:Q3 Period 6.40 6.87 1990:Q4 6.50 6.55 1991:Q1 7.00 6.55 1991:Q2 7.00 6.59 1991:Q3 6.80 6.30 1991:Q4 7.40 6.55 1992:Q1 7.40 7.27 1992:Q2 7.60 7.30 1992:Q3 7.00 7.00 1992:Q4 7.40 7.30 1993:Q1 5.60 5.31 1993:Q2 6.20 5.92 1993:Q3 5.40 5.57 1993:Q4 6.00 6.04 1994:Q1 4.60 5.11 1994:Q2 5.40 5.57 1994:Q3 5.30 5.67 1994:Q4 5.60 5.89 1995:Q1 6.10 6.04 1995:Q2 5.20 5.60 1995:Q3 5.00 5.58 1995:Q4 4.80 5.44 1996:Q1 4.90 5.69 1996:Q2 4.80 5.86 1996:Q3 5.00 5.60 1996:Q4 4.70 5.34 1997:Q1 4.60 5.17 1997:Q2 4.90 4.83 1997:Q3 4.40 4.71 1997:Q4 4.60 4.75 1998:Q1 5.80 5.48 1998:Q2 5.50 5.18 1998:Q3 5.20 5.01 1998:Q4 4.50 4.66 1999:Q1 4.30 3.87 1999:Q2 3.00 2.97 1999:Q3 2.40 2.23 1999:Q4 2.60 2.62 2000:Q1 3.10 2.81 2000:Q2 3.10 2.50 2000:Q3 3.10 2.36 2000:Q4 2.40 1.52 2001:Q1 2.80 2.11 2001:Q2 2.10 1.51 2001:Q3 4.20 3.14 2001:Q4 1.60 2.34 2002:Q1 4.00 3.39 2002:Q2 4.00 3.13 History and TB staff projection Reducedform model projection, starting in 1979:Q4 2002:Q3 Period 3.10 2.29 2002:Q4 3.10 2.43 2003:Q1 3.10 2.60 2003:Q2 3.50 3.45 2003:Q3 3.60 3.82 2003:Q4 3.60 3.37 2004:Q1 3.20 2.95 2004:Q2 3.60 3.01 2004:Q3 3.30 2.59 2004:Q4 3.60 3.27 2005:Q1 1.60 1.14 2005:Q2 1.30 1.02 2005:Q3 1.20 0.94 2005:Q4 1.50 0.95 2006:Q1 2.20 1.46 2006:Q2 2.50 1.67 2006:Q3 2.30 1.30 2006:Q4 2.50 1.56 2007:Q1 2.30 1.18 2007:Q2 2.00 0.59 2007:Q3 1.80 0.36 2007:Q4 2.10 0.62 2008:Q1 2.70 0.95 2008:Q2 4.80 3.03 2008:Q3 3.60 1.06 2008:Q4 5.20 2.75 2009:Q1 5.40 3.71 2009:Q2 7.20 5.31 2009:Q3 5.60 4.22 2009:Q4 5.50 4.17 2010:Q1 5.50 3.73 2010:Q2 6.20 4.55 2010:Q3 5.90 4.59 2010:Q4 5.38 4.54 2011:Q1 5.86 4.98 2011:Q2 5.85 5.17 2011:Q3 5.87 5.22 2011:Q4 5.97 5.37 2012:Q1 5.16 4.62 2012:Q2 5.19 4.59 2012:Q3 5.20 4.64 2012:Q4 5.22 4.71 Forecast Middleleft panel Consumer Sentiment 2000:Q4 = 100 Period Index 2000:Q1 110.13 2000:Q2 108.77 2000:Q3 107.47 2000:Q4 103.93 2001:Q1 92.27 2001:Q2 91.00 2001:Q3 88.57 2001:Q4 85.13 2002:Q1 93.13 2002:Q2 94.10 2002:Q3 87.27 2002:Q4 83.83 2003:Q1 79.97 2003:Q2 89.27 2003:Q3 89.30 2003:Q4 91.97 2004:Q1 98.00 2004:Q2 93.33 2004:Q3 95.60 2004:Q4 93.87 2005:Q1 94.07 2005:Q2 90.20 2005:Q3 87.50 2005:Q4 82.43 2006:Q1 88.93 2006:Q2 83.80 2006:Q3 84.03 2006:Q4 92.47 2007:Q1 92.20 2007:Q2 86.90 2007:Q3 85.73 2007:Q4 77.50 2008:Q1 72.90 2008:Q2 59.60 2008:Q3 64.83 2008:Q4 57.67 2009:Q1 58.27 2009:Q2 68.20 2009:Q3 68.40 2009:Q4 70.17 2010:Q1 73.87 2010:Q2 73.93 2010:Q3 68.30 2010:Q4 71.27 Forecast 2011:Q1 76.00 2011:Q2 79.18 2011:Q3 82.61 2011:Q4 86.18 2012:Q1 88.29 2012:Q2 89.75 2012:Q3 90.99 2012:Q4 91.84 Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. Middleright panel Willingness to Make Consumer Loans Period Diffusion Index 1984:Q1 37.00 1984:Q2 24.00 1984:Q3 21.00 1984:Q4 25.00 1985:Q1 33.00 1985:Q2 39.00 1985:Q3 26.00 1985:Q4 19.00 1986:Q1 45.00 1986:Q2 44.00 1986:Q3 42.00 1986:Q4 21.00 1987:Q1 19.00 1987:Q2 25.00 1987:Q3 32.00 1987:Q4 13.00 1988:Q1 12.00 1988:Q2 17.00 1988:Q3 10.00 1988:Q4 25.00 1989:Q1 16.00 1989:Q2 26.00 1989:Q3 7.00 1989:Q4 3.00 1990:Q1 7.00 1990:Q2 9.00 1990:Q3 12.00 1990:Q4 2.00 1991:Q1 15.00 1991:Q2 2.00 1991:Q3 0.00 1991:Q4 11.00 1992:Q1 9.00 1992:Q2 22.00 1992:Q3 21.00 1992:Q4 16.30 1993:Q1 18.00 1993:Q2 28.10 1993:Q3 25.90 1993:Q4 18.90 Period Diffusion Index 1994:Q1 32.70 1994:Q2 30.90 1994:Q3 21.40 1994:Q4 25.00 1995:Q1 16.10 1995:Q2 21.70 1995:Q3 7.00 1995:Q4 5.40 1996:Q1 7.10 1996:Q2 2.00 1996:Q3 6.10 1996:Q4 3.80 1997:Q1 1.90 1997:Q2 0.00 1997:Q3 10.40 1997:Q4 10.00 1998:Q1 0.00 1998:Q2 2.00 1998:Q3 11.80 1998:Q4 5.80 1999:Q1 13.50 1999:Q2 14.50 1999:Q3 11.40 1999:Q4 9.80 2000:Q1 3.90 2000:Q2 3.70 2000:Q3 1.90 2000:Q4 1.80 2001:Q1 5.50 2001:Q2 0.00 2001:Q3 0.00 2001:Q4 7.10 2002:Q1 5.70 2002:Q2 1.80 2002:Q3 9.30 2002:Q4 5.50 2003:Q1 5.30 2003:Q2 3.70 2003:Q3 16.40 2003:Q4 16.10 2004:Q1 11.30 2004:Q2 17.00 2004:Q3 10.90 2004:Q4 14.80 2005:Q1 13.50 2005:Q2 15.70 2005:Q3 23.00 2005:Q4 3.70 Period Diffusion Index 2006:Q1 11.50 2006:Q2 14.50 2006:Q3 7.70 2006:Q4 1.90 2007:Q1 1.80 2007:Q2 9.90 2007:Q3 0.00 2007:Q4 4.00 2008:Q1 15.10 2008:Q2 22.60 2008:Q3 36.00 2008:Q4 58.49 2009:Q1 20.00 2009:Q2 3.92 2009:Q3 8.00 2009:Q4 3.77 2010:Q1 7.69 2010:Q2 14.00 2010:Q3 22.64 2010:Q4 21.82 Source: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Bottomleft panel Credit Card Solicitations Monthly Mailings per household Period Low income Middle income High income January 2002 2.78 6.63 5.33 February 2002 2.98 6.60 6.11 March 2002 3.12 6.89 5.50 April 2002 3.61 8.09 6.24 May 2002 3.15 7.61 6.04 June 2002 3.36 8.13 6.03 July 2002 2.98 6.98 5.72 August 2002 3.67 7.71 6.35 September 2002 3.41 6.67 5.05 October 2002 3.17 7.88 6.11 November 2002 3.13 7.06 5.25 December 2002 2.75 5.87 4.69 January 2003 2.84 6.18 4.21 February 2003 2.59 6.20 4.51 March 2003 2.57 6.51 4.38 April 2003 2.92 6.83 5.36 May 2003 2.24 5.18 4.03 June 2003 1.99 5.28 4.27 July 2003 2.37 5.44 4.25 August 2003 2.65 5.97 4.93 September 2003 2.43 5.50 4.11 Period Low income Middle income High income October 2003 2.29 5.94 4.48 November 2003 2.27 5.74 4.35 December 2003 2.64 6.27 4.79 January 2004 2.26 5.24 4.09 February 2004 2.89 7.36 5.53 March 2004 2.75 7.10 5.47 April 2004 2.60 6.90 4.82 May 2004 2.50 6.62 4.57 June 2004 2.80 7.94 5.36 July 2004 3.06 6.96 4.89 August 2004 2.77 6.77 4.87 September 2004 2.91 6.04 4.60 October 2004 2.89 6.47 4.45 November 2004 3.18 6.98 4.13 December 2004 3.22 5.97 4.45 January 2005 2.91 6.18 4.98 February 2005 3.05 6.35 4.59 March 2005 3.16 6.37 4.76 April 2005 3.03 6.81 4.19 May 2005 3.29 6.83 4.86 June 2005 4.03 8.53 5.76 July 2005 3.76 7.24 4.91 August 2005 3.93 8.09 4.71 September 2005 3.62 8.16 6.36 October 2005 3.61 8.15 5.01 November 2005 3.59 7.02 4.92 December 2005 3.53 6.81 4.05 January 2006 3.47 7.11 4.45 February 2006 3.31 7.25 5.10 March 2006 3.76 7.31 4.83 April 2006 3.57 7.07 4.48 May 2006 3.67 7.12 5.05 June 2006 4.20 7.72 5.08 July 2006 3.46 7.20 5.33 August 2006 3.69 7.25 5.10 September 2006 3.47 7.58 5.07 October 2006 3.41 6.96 5.26 November 2006 3.49 6.93 4.81 December 2006 3.62 6.43 4.50 January 2007 3.75 7.30 5.06 February 2007 3.57 6.94 4.58 March 2007 2.97 6.02 3.68 April 2007 3.42 6.27 3.29 May 2007 3.48 6.43 3.91 June 2007 3.26 5.72 3.90 July 2007 3.74 6.07 4.52 August 2007 3.51 6.26 3.94 September 2007 3.05 5.73 3.62 Period Low income Middle income High income October 2007 3.34 6.65 4.47 November 2007 2.91 5.65 4.10 December 2007 2.90 5.06 3.81 January 2008 2.50 5.91 4.28 February 2008 2.26 5.22 3.95 March 2008 2.38 5.29 4.53 April 2008 2.05 5.15 4.09 May 2008 2.17 5.11 4.41 June 2008 2.01 4.75 4.05 July 2008 1.57 4.46 3.91 August 2008 1.63 4.67 3.92 September 2008 1.57 4.25 3.54 October 2008 1.32 3.66 2.75 November 2008 1.11 2.75 2.65 December 2008 0.90 2.29 2.01 January 2009 0.58 1.64 1.56 February 2009 0.48 1.25 1.34 March 2009 0.57 1.35 1.62 April 2009 0.51 1.34 1.25 May 2009 0.50 1.21 1.29 June 2009 0.47 1.37 1.39 July 2009 0.46 1.19 1.24 August 2009 0.53 1.16 1.41 September 2009 0.53 1.23 1.24 October 2009 0.74 1.56 1.60 November 2009 0.81 2.04 1.91 December 2009 0.83 1.55 1.44 January 2010 1.24 2.71 2.66 February 2010 1.16 2.68 2.50 March 2010 1.05 2.55 2.36 April 2010 1.31 3.06 3.00 May 2010 1.39 3.51 2.79 June 2010 1.34 3.64 2.95 July 2010 1.46 3.72 3.10 August 2010 1.53 4.57 3.33 September 2010 1.77 4.00 2.91 October 2010 1.69 4.05 3.35 November 2010 1.70 4.29 3.31 Note: Lowincome, middleincome, and highincome households earn less than $45,000, between $45,000 and $100,000, and more than $100,000, respectively. Source: Mintel. Bottomright panel Measures of Household Debt Burden Quarterly Ratio Period Debt service ratio* Debt/DPI 1980:Q1 0.11 0.68 1980:Q2 0.11 0.68 Period Debt service ratio* Debt/DPI 1980:Q3 0.11 0.67 1980:Q4 0.11 0.66 1981:Q1 0.11 0.65 1981:Q2 0.11 0.66 1981:Q3 0.11 0.65 1981:Q4 0.11 0.65 1982:Q1 0.11 0.64 1982:Q2 0.11 0.64 1982:Q3 0.11 0.63 1982:Q4 0.11 0.64 1983:Q1 0.11 0.62 1983:Q2 0.11 0.63 1983:Q3 0.11 0.64 1983:Q4 0.11 0.64 1984:Q1 0.11 0.63 1984:Q2 0.11 0.63 1984:Q3 0.11 0.64 1984:Q4 0.11 0.65 1985:Q1 0.11 0.67 1985:Q2 0.12 0.68 1985:Q3 0.12 0.71 1985:Q4 0.12 0.72 1986:Q1 0.12 0.72 1986:Q2 0.12 0.73 1986:Q3 0.12 0.75 1986:Q4 0.12 0.77 1987:Q1 0.12 0.75 1987:Q2 0.12 0.78 1987:Q3 0.12 0.78 1987:Q4 0.12 0.78 1988:Q1 0.12 0.77 1988:Q2 0.12 0.78 1988:Q3 0.12 0.79 1988:Q4 0.12 0.79 1989:Q1 0.12 0.79 1989:Q2 0.12 0.80 1989:Q3 0.12 0.81 1989:Q4 0.12 0.82 1990:Q1 0.12 0.81 1990:Q2 0.12 0.81 1990:Q3 0.12 0.82 1990:Q4 0.12 0.83 1991:Q1 0.12 0.82 1991:Q2 0.12 0.83 1991:Q3 0.12 0.83 1991:Q4 0.12 0.83 1992:Q1 0.11 0.82 1992:Q2 0.11 0.81 Period Debt service ratio* Debt/DPI 1992:Q3 0.11 0.82 1992:Q4 0.11 0.82 1993:Q1 0.11 0.83 1993:Q2 0.11 0.82 1993:Q3 0.11 0.84 1993:Q4 0.11 0.84 1994:Q1 0.11 0.84 1994:Q2 0.11 0.84 1994:Q3 0.11 0.84 1994:Q4 0.11 0.85 1995:Q1 0.11 0.85 1995:Q2 0.11 0.86 1995:Q3 0.12 0.87 1995:Q4 0.12 0.87 1996:Q1 0.12 0.87 1996:Q2 0.12 0.87 1996:Q3 0.12 0.88 1996:Q4 0.12 0.88 1997:Q1 0.12 0.87 1997:Q2 0.12 0.88 1997:Q3 0.12 0.88 1997:Q4 0.12 0.88 1998:Q1 0.12 0.87 1998:Q2 0.12 0.87 1998:Q3 0.12 0.88 1998:Q4 0.12 0.89 1999:Q1 0.12 0.89 1999:Q2 0.12 0.91 1999:Q3 0.12 0.92 1999:Q4 0.12 0.92 2000:Q1 0.12 0.90 2000:Q2 0.12 0.91 2000:Q3 0.12 0.92 2000:Q4 0.13 0.94 2001:Q1 0.13 0.94 2001:Q2 0.13 0.96 2001:Q3 0.13 0.96 2001:Q4 0.13 1.00 2002:Q1 0.13 0.99 2002:Q2 0.13 1.00 2002:Q3 0.13 1.02 2002:Q4 0.13 1.05 2003:Q1 0.13 1.06 2003:Q2 0.13 1.08 2003:Q3 0.13 1.09 2003:Q4 0.13 1.11 2004:Q1 0.13 1.12 2004:Q2 0.13 1.13 Period Debt service ratio* Debt/DPI 2004:Q3 0.13 1.15 2004:Q4 0.13 1.16 2005:Q1 0.14 1.19 2005:Q2 0.14 1.21 2005:Q3 0.14 1.22 2005:Q4 0.14 1.24 2006:Q1 0.14 1.24 2006:Q2 0.14 1.26 2006:Q3 0.14 1.27 2006:Q4 0.14 1.28 2007:Q1 0.14 1.28 2007:Q2 0.14 1.29 2007:Q3 0.14 1.30 2007:Q4 0.14 1.30 2008:Q1 0.14 1.29 2008:Q2 0.13 1.25 2008:Q3 0.13 1.26 2008:Q4 0.14 1.27 2009:Q1 0.13 1.26 2009:Q2 0.13 1.24 2009:Q3 0.13 1.24 2009:Q4 0.13 1.22 2010:Q1 0.12 1.20 2010:Q2 0.12 1.18 2010:Q3 0.12 1.18 2010:Q4 0.12 1.16 2011:Q1 0.11 1.14 2011:Q2 0.11 1.13 2011:Q3 0.11 1.11 2011:Q4 0.11 1.10 2012:Q1 0.11 1.10 2012:Q2 0.11 1.10 2012:Q3 0.11 1.09 2012:Q4 0.11 1.08 Forecast * Debt service ratio is debt service payments (principal and interest) relative to disposable personal income. Return to table Source: Flow of Funds Accounts. Exhibit 5 European Developments Topleft panel Sovereign Bond Spreads* Basis points Date 1 January 2010 Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 238.7 145.1 69.0 59.1 75.5 Date Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 4 January 2010 233.1 138.0 67.3 57.9 71.7 5 January 2010 227.9 141.8 67.6 59.2 72.8 6 January 2010 227.1 151.2 69.1 62.2 73.9 7 January 2010 227.3 144.8 67.3 61.3 72.4 8 January 2010 220.0 140.2 61.2 57.0 69.3 11 January 2010 217.5 140.6 65.8 61.6 71.0 12 January 2010 234.5 144.2 69.4 63.5 74.2 13 January 2010 257.7 151.5 76.4 65.9 78.6 14 January 2010 277.6 157.4 88.6 69.8 80.6 15 January 2010 273.4 156.7 92.9 70.4 81.1 18 January 2010 268.1 156.9 94.3 72.5 81.2 19 January 2010 264.3 147.4 92.3 73.1 78.6 20 January 2010 293.8 161.3 104.4 79.6 85.2 21 January 2010 288.1 156.7 104.4 80.2 86.8 22 January 2010 304.8 159.5 109.2 81.5 86.3 25 January 2010 297.7 149.7 98.0 74.0 82.9 26 January 2010 303.7 149.7 93.3 82.6 81.7 27 January 2010 355.6 155.8 105.5 90.3 88.6 28 January 2010 396.1 165.4 121.6 98.6 94.8 29 January 2010 365.8 165.1 121.4 92.4 91.9 1 February 2010 344.0 162.1 120.7 84.2 86.3 2 February 2010 353.6 160.8 129.1 86.1 86.1 3 February 2010 349.7 162.7 147.0 88.9 85.6 4 February 2010 352.7 166.4 159.2 96.7 90.1 5 February 2010 350.5 174.4 161.3 100.1 94.4 8 February 2010 362.5 178.7 162.7 99.9 95.0 9 February 2010 324.4 169.3 147.4 90.9 90.1 10 February 2010 282.8 156.0 135.2 79.0 82.4 11 February 2010 273.2 146.0 118.4 76.0 80.8 12 February 2010 296.1 149.3 123.9 79.6 86.3 15 February 2010 304.9 153.4 123.4 82.3 86.0 16 February 2010 320.4 154.7 125.0 81.0 85.5 17 February 2010 318.4 154.6 118.4 80.2 85.2 18 February 2010 329.3 151.2 117.5 77.8 81.7 19 February 2010 317.5 147.5 112.1 75.1 80.8 22 February 2010 315.6 144.8 110.0 72.6 82.0 23 February 2010 332.0 146.6 111.7 74.4 86.2 24 February 2010 338.9 150.7 114.6 75.6 88.8 25 February 2010 355.1 155.7 117.4 79.6 93.6 26 February 2010 326.1 150.9 111.4 76.0 89.5 1 March 2010 316.0 143.3 98.6 71.3 86.9 2 March 2010 304.7 140.9 94.4 73.8 85.3 3 March 2010 285.8 139.4 91.6 73.2 83.0 4 March 2010 297.0 139.5 93.5 75.1 83.6 5 March 2010 291.1 135.5 91.0 70.9 79.9 8 March 2010 306.0 133.7 89.3 68.4 78.9 9 March 2010 313.2 134.6 93.4 71.0 80.3 10 March 2010 309.3 129.6 88.1 68.8 78.0 Date Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 11 March 2010 314.8 128.5 106.0 69.3 77.9 12 March 2010 305.9 127.9 106.8 69.9 79.1 15 March 2010 305.5 129.8 110.4 71.9 79.7 16 March 2010 299.9 129.3 111.1 71.7 79.5 17 March 2010 299.7 135.0 114.7 73.6 80.5 18 March 2010 313.7 137.9 116.2 75.8 81.9 19 March 2010 323.9 141.3 120.6 77.6 84.5 22 March 2010 337.3 144.9 125.8 78.4 86.4 23 March 2010 324.9 142.7 123.9 76.8 85.4 24 March 2010 328.2 149.6 125.9 75.4 84.1 25 March 2010 312.8 143.2 123.8 71.7 78.4 26 March 2010 305.2 139.9 114.4 68.5 77.2 29 March 2010 316.1 138.5 114.2 69.5 78.6 30 March 2010 333.1 138.7 116.0 70.9 78.7 31 March 2010 343.7 138.3 112.7 72.4 88.9 1 April 2010 345.5 134.8 108.7 71.7 86.4 2 April 2010 345.7 134.2 108.1 71.3 86.0 5 April 2010 345.2 134.3 107.9 71.6 85.8 6 April 2010 383.9 135.7 110.2 73.6 87.0 7 April 2010 405.0 137.1 116.2 75.6 88.5 8 April 2010 426.8 139.7 127.8 76.4 89.1 9 April 2010 398.5 135.3 119.9 71.5 83.3 12 April 2010 349.5 131.4 116.7 66.7 80.9 13 April 2010 366.5 134.3 120.4 70.4 83.4 14 April 2010 394.0 138.5 129.2 72.0 84.8 15 April 2010 400.6 141.6 126.3 71.6 84.1 16 April 2010 430.3 147.4 139.4 74.8 86.5 19 April 2010 453.5 152.5 151.8 76.5 87.2 20 April 2010 478.3 146.6 154.8 76.5 86.4 21 April 2010 501.4 152.4 169.3 79.1 89.5 22 April 2010 578.7 172.4 190.6 88.8 94.7 23 April 2010 559.5 171.4 191.0 92.0 94.8 26 April 2010 651.5 186.7 218.2 100.5 97.7 27 April 2010 675.1 216.9 277.0 112.5 110.9 28 April 2010 693.4 224.7 277.2 108.2 107.7 29 April 2010 597.4 210.6 241.5 30 April 2010 594.5 210.0 212.2 101.3 99.8 3 May 2010 543.6 204.8 207.0 97.1 93.7 4 May 2010 644.8 233.8 252.0 115.6 105.8 5 May 2010 731.1 270.4 294.5 131.7 120.5 6 May 2010 851.6 300.2 334.7 162.9 148.9 7 May 2010 965.2 305.9 348.8 164.2 147.1 10 May 2010 481.1 176.8 169.6 97.2 101.4 11 May 2010 450.6 164.9 158.9 99.0 101.6 12 May 2010 430.1 163.1 164.0 97.2 99.1 13 May 2010 441.6 163.7 162.8 99.0 92.7 14 May 2010 485.4 174.2 179.0 108.4 104.3 17 May 2010 519.2 183.5 183.9 112.4 103.6 99.1 100.7 Date Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 18 May 2010 473.4 179.3 179.2 116.9 106.7 19 May 2010 505.6 182.2 182.7 125.8 112.7 20 May 2010 509.6 196.3 193.3 138.6 127.4 21 May 2010 515.8 200.5 197.5 138.6 126.8 24 May 2010 513.3 201.0 197.0 140.5 125.4 25 May 2010 514.8 215.3 204.4 155.7 138.0 26 May 2010 505.2 216.6 205.5 155.2 137.4 27 May 2010 500.0 214.2 200.6 152.4 139.5 28 May 2010 498.5 214.6 202.3 153.0 145.3 31 May 2010 504.7 214.7 202.1 159.8 148.4 1 June 2010 517.5 223.0 211.0 165.2 149.8 2 June 2010 536.9 229.2 225.2 176.7 159.7 3 June 2010 540.4 233.1 235.6 184.2 161.5 4 June 2010 555.7 252.5 254.6 194.4 167.0 7 June 2010 556.0 258.6 263.7 203.8 176.8 8 June 2010 560.7 258.3 271.6 208.2 178.1 9 June 2010 558.5 253.5 266.7 200.4 157.2 10 June 2010 553.1 248.8 255.2 186.5 141.1 11 June 2010 561.6 254.3 253.4 189.6 146.2 14 June 2010 570.1 263.6 258.8 204.2 144.2 15 June 2010 640.8 281.0 277.7 206.4 136.7 16 June 2010 667.0 289.3 293.9 221.1 138.0 17 June 2010 667.6 290.0 292.4 211.1 136.1 18 June 2010 669.2 281.1 287.5 186.3 124.7 21 June 2010 672.1 269.6 285.7 169.8 121.4 22 June 2010 710.6 271.7 293.1 182.5 132.6 23 June 2010 772.1 281.0 307.7 189.3 140.5 24 June 2010 780.8 285.8 309.6 185.0 143.1 25 June 2010 780.7 291.0 312.6 185.3 146.8 28 June 2010 800.2 295.5 313.5 195.1 153.9 29 June 2010 789.3 295.1 316.4 205.0 157.1 30 June 2010 784.9 292.3 312.2 198.4 151.7 1 July 2010 770.9 290.5 301.4 200.9 151.2 2 July 2010 762.8 273.7 278.7 194.0 143.9 5 July 2010 766.0 272.7 277.1 206.6 146.8 6 July 2010 755.9 269.2 280.0 208.3 147.6 7 July 2010 756.0 269.7 283.8 205.7 148.5 8 July 2010 764.4 262.6 278.2 201.8 141.9 9 July 2010 763.7 261.9 274.9 205.9 138.9 12 July 2010 764.3 267.0 280.4 207.3 144.2 13 July 2010 755.5 266.3 284.6 200.5 142.3 14 July 2010 760.7 282.3 291.2 207.2 146.8 15 July 2010 766.9 284.6 287.3 197.1 147.7 16 July 2010 764.3 282.6 285.5 185.6 147.3 19 July 2010 778.0 283.9 282.9 175.7 140.2 20 July 2010 782.7 276.6 282.9 169.1 136.5 21 July 2010 785.8 275.8 281.8 167.9 137.4 22 July 2010 774.1 276.9 287.4 169.6 135.7 Date Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 23 July 2010 767.4 271.5 284.3 164.9 131.8 26 July 2010 761.0 259.1 274.3 148.2 123.5 27 July 2010 749.9 238.8 242.9 137.4 120.4 28 July 2010 747.3 223.0 233.3 147.6 123.3 29 July 2010 750.3 232.4 238.7 152.1 125.6 30 July 2010 762.8 236.1 252.4 154.2 128.5 2 August 2010 749.2 227.5 246.3 146.2 122.2 3 August 2010 748.1 230.2 250.1 152.0 126.6 4 August 2010 762.4 229.3 251.2 154.0 125.3 5 August 2010 763.4 239.2 251.4 155.2 127.1 6 August 2010 762.8 236.7 249.2 152.5 126.5 9 August 2010 764.4 250.0 247.5 150.7 125.3 10 August 2010 777.9 267.0 254.2 164.3 131.7 11 August 2010 793.2 289.7 272.7 167.9 137.9 12 August 2010 797.4 287.6 271.9 175.9 141.8 13 August 2010 809.0 293.1 283.7 185.8 147.9 16 August 2010 836.5 299.2 287.3 186.7 152.3 17 August 2010 832.6 291.8 281.2 174.0 146.2 18 August 2010 824.2 288.3 278.0 168.0 140.4 19 August 2010 833.5 293.1 286.7 173.3 146.0 20 August 2010 848.1 303.3 294.4 178.9 151.4 23 August 2010 862.1 305.1 297.1 178.0 149.1 24 August 2010 885.0 318.1 306.6 184.0 157.2 25 August 2010 926.1 343.6 324.0 184.4 161.1 26 August 2010 925.8 345.5 325.8 185.8 161.0 27 August 2010 924.6 352.0 329.5 185.8 157.5 30 August 2010 927.1 352.6 331.8 192.6 165.9 31 August 2010 923.2 356.4 333.0 193.2 171.0 1 September 2010 910.2 347.5 326.0 180.9 157.5 2 September 2010 900.9 342.3 324.6 172.7 151.9 3 September 2010 896.8 340.3 324.8 167.1 145.4 6 September 2010 914.3 342.6 333.4 174.1 147.8 7 September 2010 941.9 372.8 354.0 180.6 154.2 8 September 2010 951.9 371.2 350.7 174.1 149.5 9 September 2010 936.7 354.0 342.1 172.0 145.4 10 September 2010 933.2 341.3 337.3 171.4 143.7 13 September 2010 894.4 339.1 330.4 172.6 145.4 14 September 2010 899.9 348.6 334.4 178.6 150.0 15 September 2010 907.8 350.1 336.6 175.7 147.8 16 September 2010 907.2 355.9 348.0 172.5 143.4 17 September 2010 913.3 386.6 365.8 177.3 150.6 20 September 2010 909.3 401.5 392.7 176.2 151.3 21 September 2010 884.1 383.2 385.1 175.0 148.1 22 September 2010 869.0 394.4 379.4 178.5 153.5 23 September 2010 874.9 418.4 401.7 183.7 161.2 24 September 2010 870.5 412.8 404.9 180.6 158.3 27 September 2010 862.9 429.9 414.8 186.8 163.7 28 September 2010 856.1 449.3 426.6 193.4 169.1 Date Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 29 September 2010 840.5 446.0 423.3 195.7 169.7 30 September 2010 817.4 429.5 402.5 184.5 160.1 1 October 2010 786.0 402.3 384.1 180.7 157.6 4 October 2010 776.7 402.4 382.7 179.9 157.3 5 October 2010 773.8 410.3 393.0 178.0 154.2 6 October 2010 765.8 422.0 400.6 177.6 153.8 7 October 2010 755.2 422.8 401.5 176.8 152.7 8 October 2010 751.7 421.6 398.1 173.7 149.0 11 October 2010 699.7 417.6 389.6 171.0 145.7 12 October 2010 678.7 421.9 398.1 175.0 148.7 13 October 2010 650.2 413.9 390.3 174.5 146.9 14 October 2010 659.1 387.4 376.0 170.1 144.9 15 October 2010 652.3 374.9 336.9 161.7 138.8 18 October 2010 649.4 361.6 314.4 161.6 137.7 19 October 2010 660.1 383.2 318.5 163.1 138.1 20 October 2010 660.9 387.5 329.2 161.8 135.7 21 October 2010 681.2 403.0 338.0 166.9 137.9 22 October 2010 688.3 404.7 338.8 166.1 137.7 25 October 2010 691.0 398.8 323.7 161.6 134.6 26 October 2010 715.9 392.9 312.9 156.7 131.6 27 October 2010 782.6 420.6 329.1 161.2 136.7 28 October 2010 784.1 424.4 337.5 162.7 136.9 29 October 2010 804.3 440.0 343.4 169.3 142.4 1 November 2010 822.3 461.9 362.1 176.3 145.5 2 November 2010 832.0 482.6 376.9 181.9 149.2 3 November 2010 843.6 502.6 387.9 187.0 152.4 4 November 2010 881.6 526.0 421.1 194.4 156.6 5 November 2010 904.1 520.6 409.8 194.7 155.9 8 November 2010 901.7 546.9 438.6 201.6 164.4 9 November 2010 891.1 553.2 435.6 198.6 162.6 10 November 2010 911.0 619.5 459.5 206.0 166.1 11 November 2010 916.0 646.1 460.0 220.0 179.7 12 November 2010 887.7 562.9 423.2 201.9 164.6 15 November 2010 885.7 540.0 417.6 195.8 158.6 16 November 2010 899.7 562.0 414.3 198.5 160.2 17 November 2010 903.3 554.4 410.6 202.0 161.2 18 November 2010 889.5 541.4 405.6 201.3 159.4 19 November 2010 886.1 541.5 404.4 201.9 154.8 22 November 2010 918.3 544.1 407.1 208.8 156.1 23 November 2010 932.9 586.3 435.4 234.5 171.4 24 November 2010 921.0 615.3 430.5 235.3 163.2 25 November 2010 922.2 632.9 431.1 246.3 168.2 26 November 2010 903.9 646.2 425.3 244.4 168.3 29 November 2010 902.8 649.3 427.6 267.0 188.1 30 November 2010 918.7 668.5 430.4 283.3 199.7 1 December 2010 902.9 616.3 386.5 250.9 173.0 2 December 2010 883.3 568.2 332.2 225.9 158.3 3 December 2010 870.6 528.9 307.4 219.4 157.6 Date Greece Ireland Portugal Spain Italy 6 December 2010 877.0 531.6 309.2 230.4 164.7 7 December 2010 871.1 507.8 303.3 225.6 157.1 8 December 2010 867.6 501.7 306.5 222.0 153.4 9 December 2010 874.1 503.3 313.8 234.0 159.2 10 December 2010 872.9 513.0 330.2 245.2 160.3 13 December 2010 870.6 514.3 332.7 247.6 161.0 14 December 2010 871.4 521.8 335.2 248.8 159.0 15 December 2010 882.9 519.1 339.6 242.2 153.0 16 December 2010 885.6 521.4 339.0 245.1 156.0 17 December 2010 887.4 540.3 342.9 248.9 161.3 20 December 2010 893.4 565.3 349.3 252.8 165.7 21 December 2010 897.9 589.7 353.9 252.9 167.1 22 December 2010 906.2 601.3 361.1 251.8 171.4 23 December 2010 922.7 602.4 363.7 248.8 171.8 24 December 2010 920.4 602.6 364.5 248.9 171.4 27 December 2010 925.2 602.1 363.6 243.1 168.8 28 December 2010 931.3 606.2 362.4 249.8 177.6 29 December 2010 947.1 606.6 362.9 243.5 182.2 30 December 2010 952.5 608.8 364.9 249.1 186.2 31 December 2010 950.9 609.5 363.8 249.0 185.2 3 January 2011 959.9 609.3 369.8 248.9 181.0 4 January 2011 970.0 609.6 372.6 242.6 173.9 5 January 2011 967.9 607.6 371.2 237.1 170.7 6 January 2011 972.5 612.9 404.4 254.7 185.4 7 January 2011 973.6 620.1 423.5 263.8 192.8 10 January 2011 942.3 604.0 410.9 267.5 197.6 11 January 2011 875.8 566.4 397.5 255.9 187.3 12 January 2011 817.3 530.9 373.7 240.2 173.5 13 January 2011 811.4 525.2 370.5 230.5 166.1 14 January 2011 808.1 548.9 378.8 230.4 162.7 17 January 2011 801.2 553.4 378.0 239.5 168.2 18 January 2011 832.9 576.8 395.5 236.3 166.9 19 January 2011 838.7 581.6 395.6 227.1 162.3 20 January 2011 820.8 565.1 366.9 218.1 161.6 21 January 2011 812.7 561.6 370.7 202.6 153.5 24 January 2011 807.2 572.9 378.4 208.7 152.3 25 January 2011 823.8 575.1 390.2 218.2 158.1 * Longterm yield spreads over German bunds. Return to text A vertical line on November 26, 2010 is labeled "Irish Package." Source: Bloomberg. Topright panel German Indicators IFO Survey (January 5, 2010 = 100) Total PMI (Diffusion index*) January 2010 95.9 54.60 February 2010 95.5 55.69 March 2010 98.3 58.73 Period IFO Survey (January 5, 2010 = 100) Total PMI (Diffusion index*) April 2010 101.8 59.32 May 2010 101.6 56.35 June 2010 101.9 56.69 July 2010 106.3 58.96 August 2010 106.8 58.35 September 2010 106.9 54.73 October 2010 107.7 56.00 November 2010 109.3 59.01 December 2010 109.8 60.29 January 2011 110.3 60.98 Period * 50+ = expansion. Return to table Date DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100) 4 January 2010 100.00 5 January 2010 99.73 6 January 2010 99.77 7 January 2010 99.52 8 January 2010 99.82 11 January 2010 99.87 12 January 2010 98.26 13 January 2010 98.59 14 January 2010 99.02 15 January 2010 97.15 18 January 2010 97.85 19 January 2010 98.81 20 January 2010 96.75 21 January 2010 95.02 22 January 2010 94.16 25 January 2010 93.11 26 January 2010 93.73 27 January 2010 93.30 28 January 2010 91.60 29 January 2010 92.73 1 February 2010 93.49 2 February 2010 94.40 3 February 2010 93.78 4 February 2010 91.48 5 February 2010 89.85 8 February 2010 90.68 9 February 2010 90.91 10 February 2010 91.54 11 February 2010 91.00 12 February 2010 90.94 15 February 2010 91.12 16 February 2010 92.46 17 February 2010 93.39 18 February 2010 93.92 Date DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100) 19 February 2010 94.61 22 February 2010 94.05 23 February 2010 92.66 24 February 2010 92.84 25 February 2010 91.47 26 February 2010 92.56 1 March 2010 94.46 2 March 2010 95.51 3 March 2010 96.19 4 March 2010 95.82 5 March 2010 97.17 8 March 2010 97.15 9 March 2010 97.31 10 March 2010 98.16 11 March 2010 98.02 12 March 2010 98.29 15 March 2010 97.61 16 March 2010 98.72 17 March 2010 99.60 18 March 2010 99.40 19 March 2010 98.91 22 March 2010 98.99 23 March 2010 99.49 24 March 2010 99.85 25 March 2010 101.40 26 March 2010 101.19 29 March 2010 101.79 30 March 2010 101.56 31 March 2010 101.74 1 April 2010 103.10 2 April 2010 ND 5 April 2010 ND 6 April 2010 103.37 7 April 2010 102.88 8 April 2010 102.04 9 April 2010 103.33 12 April 2010 103.35 13 April 2010 103.02 14 April 2010 103.80 15 April 2010 104.02 16 April 2010 102.19 19 April 2010 101.89 20 April 2010 103.57 21 April 2010 103.01 22 April 2010 101.99 23 April 2010 103.49 26 April 2010 104.69 27 April 2010 101.84 Date DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100) 28 April 2010 100.60 29 April 2010 101.60 30 April 2010 101.45 3 May 2010 101.96 4 May 2010 99.31 5 May 2010 98.51 6 May 2010 97.68 7 May 2010 94.49 10 May 2010 99.50 11 May 2010 99.82 12 May 2010 102.24 13 May 2010 103.37 14 May 2010 100.14 17 May 2010 100.31 18 May 2010 101.78 19 May 2010 99.01 20 May 2010 97.02 21 May 2010 96.38 24 May 2010 95.99 25 May 2010 93.75 26 May 2010 95.20 27 May 2010 98.16 28 May 2010 98.31 31 May 2010 98.61 1 June 2010 98.89 2 June 2010 98.89 3 June 2010 100.10 4 June 2010 98.19 7 June 2010 97.63 8 June 2010 97.03 9 June 2010 98.95 10 June 2010 100.14 11 June 2010 99.99 14 June 2010 101.27 15 June 2010 102.10 16 June 2010 102.36 17 June 2010 102.90 18 June 2010 102.79 21 June 2010 104.05 22 June 2010 103.65 23 June 2010 102.58 24 June 2010 101.11 25 June 2010 100.37 28 June 2010 101.80 29 June 2010 98.41 30 June 2010 98.63 1 July 2010 96.84 2 July 2010 96.46 Date DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100) 5 July 2010 96.16 6 July 2010 98.23 7 July 2010 99.08 8 July 2010 99.79 9 July 2010 100.28 12 July 2010 100.48 13 July 2010 102.36 14 July 2010 102.67 15 July 2010 101.67 16 July 2010 99.87 19 July 2010 99.35 20 July 2010 98.66 21 July 2010 99.04 22 July 2010 101.55 23 July 2010 101.95 26 July 2010 102.41 27 July 2010 102.63 28 July 2010 102.16 29 July 2010 101.43 30 July 2010 101.65 2 August 2010 104.03 3 August 2010 104.29 4 August 2010 104.68 5 August 2010 104.72 6 August 2010 103.49 9 August 2010 105.01 10 August 2010 103.93 11 August 2010 101.75 12 August 2010 101.44 13 August 2010 101.03 16 August 2010 101.03 17 August 2010 102.61 18 August 2010 102.28 19 August 2010 100.44 20 August 2010 99.29 23 August 2010 99.38 24 August 2010 98.13 25 August 2010 97.54 26 August 2010 97.76 27 August 2010 98.39 30 August 2010 97.75 31 August 2010 97.97 1 September 2010 100.59 2 September 2010 100.59 3 September 2010 101.43 6 September 2010 101.76 7 September 2010 101.15 8 September 2010 101.92 Date DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100) 9 September 2010 102.86 10 September 2010 102.75 13 September 2010 103.53 14 September 2010 103.75 15 September 2010 103.53 16 September 2010 103.33 17 September 2010 102.67 20 September 2010 104.07 21 September 2010 103.76 22 September 2010 102.65 23 September 2010 102.26 24 September 2010 104.13 27 September 2010 103.81 28 September 2010 103.77 29 September 2010 103.28 30 September 2010 102.99 1 October 2010 102.70 4 October 2010 101.42 5 October 2010 102.77 6 October 2010 103.68 7 October 2010 103.77 8 October 2010 104.02 11 October 2010 104.32 12 October 2010 104.24 13 October 2010 106.39 14 October 2010 106.73 15 October 2010 107.34 18 October 2010 107.74 19 October 2010 107.31 20 October 2010 107.87 21 October 2010 109.30 22 October 2010 109.22 25 October 2010 109.77 26 October 2010 109.35 27 October 2010 108.59 28 October 2010 109.04 29 October 2010 109.14 1 November 2010 109.20 2 November 2010 110.02 3 November 2010 109.42 4 November 2010 111.35 5 November 2010 111.67 8 November 2010 111.61 9 November 2010 112.23 10 November 2010 111.10 11 November 2010 111.16 12 November 2010 111.35 15 November 2010 112.27 Date DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100) 16 November 2010 110.17 17 November 2010 110.78 18 November 2010 112.96 19 November 2010 113.15 22 November 2010 112.79 23 November 2010 110.86 24 November 2010 112.82 25 November 2010 113.75 26 November 2010 113.24 29 November 2010 110.74 30 November 2010 110.58 1 December 2010 113.53 2 December 2010 115.03 3 December 2010 114.87 6 December 2010 114.98 7 December 2010 115.77 8 December 2010 115.34 9 December 2010 115.14 10 December 2010 115.84 13 December 2010 116.22 14 December 2010 116.19 15 December 2010 116.01 16 December 2010 116.14 17 December 2010 115.44 20 December 2010 116.04 21 December 2010 117.02 22 December 2010 116.86 23 December 2010 116.69 24 December 2010 ND 27 December 2010 115.25 28 December 2010 115.27 29 December 2010 115.66 30 December 2010 114.32 31 December 2010 ND 3 January 2011 115.57 4 January 2011 115.33 5 January 2011 114.74 6 January 2011 115.43 7 January 2011 114.87 10 January 2011 113.37 11 January 2011 114.77 12 January 2011 116.87 13 January 2011 116.98 14 January 2011 116.99 17 January 2011 117.03 18 January 2011 118.11 19 January 2011 117.10 20 January 2011 116.14 Date DAX equity index (January 4, 2010 = 100) 21 January 2011 116.77 24 January 2011 116.86 25 January 2011 117.10 Middleleft panel Gross Sovereign and Bank Financing Needs* Billions of euros Portugal sovereign Portugal banks Spain sovereign Spain banks 2009 Period 22.25 5.87 157.59 48.58 2010 18.27 12.51 153.16 49.15 2011 21.07 13.24 131.93 59.74 2012 19.01 14.68 126.92 90.95 2013 19.37 2.09 102.86 10.26 * Sovereign is sum of projected fiscal deficit and sovereign bond redemptions. Bank is marketable debt only. Does not include potential costs of bank bailouts. Return to text Middleright panel Sovereign DebttoGDP Ratios* Percent Greece Ireland Portugal Spain 2009 Period 126.8 66.3 75.7 53.2 2010 140.0 96.1 83.9 63.5 2011 152.8 103.6 89.0 69.2 2012 160.4 108.8 93.4 72.3 2013 164.4 111.3 96.1 73.4 2014 165.9 110.7 98.8 73.6 2015 167.7 110.0 100.9 73.2 2016 169.7 109.4 102.7 72.3 2017 170.9 108.9 104.3 71.1 2018 172.3 108.4 105.5 69.9 2019 173.5 107.9 106.8 68.6 2020 175.0 107.5 108.2 67.4 Portugal Spain Germany * Staff estimates. Return to text Bottomleft panel Unit Labor Costs 2001:Q1 = 100 Period Greece Ireland 2001:Q1 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2001:Q2 100.62 102.25 100.68 101.15 100.20 2001:Q3 100.74 104.85 99.43 101.96 100.40 2001:Q4 100.86 104.96 99.20 103.00 101.00 2002:Q1 111.45 102.96 103.31 103.34 101.10 2002:Q2 112.44 103.55 103.42 104.50 100.80 2002:Q3 112.56 103.07 105.25 105.65 101.00 2002:Q4 113.18 104.37 104.11 106.11 101.30 2003:Q1 112.81 107.21 107.08 107.27 101.80 Period Greece Ireland 2003:Q2 114.53 2003:Q3 Portugal Spain Germany 107.33 107.99 107.96 101.70 115.64 109.10 108.56 109.11 101.80 2003:Q4 116.87 106.15 108.45 109.34 101.30 2004:Q1 117.49 108.63 107.76 110.61 101.50 2004:Q2 118.35 111.35 109.36 110.61 101.20 2004:Q3 119.95 113.59 110.84 111.65 101.40 2004:Q4 120.57 112.65 110.84 112.34 101.30 2005:Q1 122.04 114.66 113.24 113.26 100.90 2005:Q2 123.15 115.48 112.67 114.76 100.00 2005:Q3 123.28 120.21 115.75 116.15 99.20 2005:Q4 124.14 122.46 114.95 117.07 99.10 2006:Q1 125.37 122.46 116.44 118.11 98.90 2006:Q2 125.86 123.88 117.24 118.92 98.10 2006:Q3 127.09 122.34 115.07 119.84 98.00 2006:Q4 128.33 125.53 115.41 121.34 97.21 2007:Q1 129.68 122.58 117.69 123.18 97.70 2007:Q2 131.28 125.77 119.86 124.11 98.20 2007:Q3 133.50 130.50 117.01 125.14 97.80 2007:Q4 135.34 128.01 117.69 126.76 98.20 2008:Q1 137.68 133.33 119.52 129.87 98.50 2008:Q2 139.53 133.69 123.52 130.33 99.80 2008:Q3 141.01 131.68 120.89 131.72 101.10 2008:Q4 142.49 134.75 125.23 131.72 103.79 2009:Q1 143.72 134.40 127.74 132.30 106.89 2009:Q2 144.70 130.97 130.59 132.41 106.09 2009:Q3 145.81 130.73 125.91 132.06 105.59 2009:Q4 147.29 132.74 128.42 132.30 105.39 2010:Q1 137.68 127.19 127.74 131.26 106.19 2010:Q2 142.61 128.25 132.31 131.26 104.69 2010:Q3 143.60 124.70 127.05 130.57 104.69 Source: Haver Analytics. Bottomright panel Containing Contagion Backing Portugal and Spain will require €500+ billion, compared with currently available resources of €375400 billion. Critical that backstop capacity be expanded. Horizontal review of banks must: be more credible than one last summer. require more banks to raise capital. be able to help recapitalize weak banks. Exhibit 6 Foreign Outlook Top panel Real GDP* Percent change, annual rate 2011p 2010 H1 1. Total Foreign 2012p Q4e Q3 5.6 2.1 3.0 3.4 3.6 2. June Tealbook 4.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 n.a. 3. Emerging Market Economies 8.1 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.1 9.7 9.6 9.9 8.6 8.5 12.3 1.1 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.2 2.8 3.1 4.2 4.2 3.6 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.4 4. China 5. Emerging Asia ex. China 6. Latin America 7. Advanced Foreign Economies 8. Euro Area 2.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 2.2 9. United Kingdom 2.9 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.5 10. Canada 3.9 1.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 11. Japan 4.9 4.5 1.6 1.7 2.0 * GDP aggregates weighted by shares of U.S. merchandise exports. Table reflects January Tealbook updated for data. Return to text Middleleft panel Industrial Production* January 2006 = 100 Period U.S. AFE EME January 2006 100.00 100.00 100.00 February 2006 100.07 March 2006 100.30 100.02 101.42 April 2006 100.69 May 2006 100.58 100.20 101.99 June 2006 101.03 99.96 103.36 July 2006 101.31 99.99 101.84 August 2006 101.58 100.32 102.35 99.75 100.08 99.86 100.25 September 2006 101.47 99.79 103.50 October 2006 101.44 99.90 103.61 November 2006 101.26 100.25 104.96 December 2006 102.33 100.97 104.72 January 2007 101.95 100.77 105.44 February 2007 103.10 101.57 105.55 March 2007 103.22 101.58 107.12 April 2007 103.94 100.94 107.01 May 2007 103.97 101.92 108.46 June 2007 103.81 101.70 107.91 July 2007 104.06 101.31 110.22 August 2007 104.02 102.06 109.46 September 2007 104.44 101.35 109.16 October 2007 103.70 101.44 110.79 November 2007 104.11 101.22 110.59 December 2007 104.20 100.29 111.76 January 2008 103.83 100.88 114.10 February 2008 103.61 100.72 113.89 March 2008 103.31 April 2008 102.45 100.26 113.21 99.70 114.27 Period U.S. AFE EME May 2008 101.99 99.20 112.37 June 2008 101.62 98.98 113.54 July 2008 101.59 99.35 112.23 August 2008 100.38 98.38 111.76 September 2008 96.41 97.67 111.51 October 2008 97.36 96.12 110.02 November 2008 96.38 93.54 105.81 December 2008 94.41 89.92 102.20 January 2009 92.44 87.45 100.11 February 2009 91.74 85.17 102.72 March 2009 90.39 84.15 103.21 April 2009 89.68 84.05 105.31 May 2009 88.88 83.90 105.31 June 2009 88.68 84.14 107.05 July 2009 89.91 84.50 109.48 August 2009 91.01 84.25 109.20 September 2009 91.68 85.67 110.24 October 2009 91.92 85.84 111.45 November 2009 92.41 86.94 111.53 December 2009 92.91 87.08 114.68 January 2010 93.84 88.62 116.18 February 2010 93.82 88.81 117.32 March 2010 94.38 90.00 119.07 April 2010 94.87 90.39 120.87 May 2010 96.02 91.37 121.95 June 2010 96.08 91.37 120.21 July 2010 96.93 91.43 120.06 August 2010 97.16 91.83 119.92 September 2010 97.45 91.08 120.02 October 2010 97.32 91.26 121.03 November 2010 97.57 ND ND December 2010 98.40 ND ND * Weighted by share of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text Middlecenter panel Nominal Exports of Goods* January 2006 = 100 Period U.S. AFE EME January 2006 100.00 100.00 100.00 February 2006 101.22 100.10 102.47 March 2006 103.41 101.21 105.61 April 2006 103.27 102.44 102.93 May 2006 105.01 108.46 107.27 June 2006 107.30 106.07 107.68 July 2006 104.68 103.16 105.44 August 2006 107.65 106.21 112.37 September 2006 108.63 106.80 111.17 October 2006 109.57 106.12 109.14 Period U.S. AFE EME November 2006 111.19 110.22 115.42 December 2006 111.71 114.49 115.31 January 2007 112.78 112.35 118.23 February 2007 110.40 113.17 123.92 March 2007 115.30 114.18 115.50 April 2007 114.92 115.01 121.12 May 2007 117.10 116.50 123.40 June 2007 118.36 116.96 123.00 July 2007 118.89 118.33 123.29 August 2007 121.10 120.99 126.61 September 2007 121.74 121.19 125.12 October 2007 123.53 125.19 133.86 November 2007 125.13 130.55 138.09 December 2007 126.12 126.17 138.55 January 2008 130.28 135.95 150.00 February 2008 133.93 137.00 146.53 March 2008 131.98 139.97 145.61 April 2008 137.27 144.55 153.37 May 2008 138.00 141.16 155.15 June 2008 143.88 141.58 151.97 July 2008 146.54 144.42 157.77 August 2008 143.88 135.92 152.60 September 2008 132.08 131.84 148.05 October 2008 129.70 121.39 141.89 November 2008 121.05 107.17 123.54 December 2008 109.63 104.49 116.79 January 2009 103.31 95.13 107.17 February 2009 105.55 91.73 106.10 March 2009 104.37 92.90 109.07 April 2009 101.05 92.88 109.60 May 2009 103.89 94.22 109.09 June 2009 106.19 98.09 113.02 July 2009 108.66 102.52 115.11 August 2009 108.75 101.50 116.48 September 2009 113.01 106.68 123.89 October 2009 117.10 109.17 129.37 November 2009 117.05 112.49 132.03 December 2009 122.03 113.79 145.05 January 2010 123.45 114.44 141.22 February 2010 123.19 113.63 145.96 March 2010 129.62 118.52 148.00 April 2010 128.10 116.77 149.41 May 2010 131.74 113.36 152.13 June 2010 129.12 115.51 152.98 July 2010 132.65 119.01 147.83 August 2010 132.37 120.22 150.69 September 2010 132.92 121.67 152.02 October 2010 138.28 128.69 153.51 Period November 2010 U.S. AFE EME 139.40 128.69 ND * Dollar value; weighted by share of U.S. merchandise exports. Return to text Middleright panel Output Gaps Percent* Period United States Advanced Foreign Economies Emerging Market Economies 2008:Q1 0.75 1.56 4.25 2008:Q2 1.13 0.91 3.45 2008:Q3 2.66 0.15 2.48 2008:Q4 4.87 1.72 0.28 2009:Q1 6.55 4.07 4.02 2009:Q2 7.21 4.47 3.65 2009:Q3 7.34 4.55 2.51 2009:Q4 6.70 4.05 1.77 2010:Q1 6.43 3.44 1.13 2010:Q2 6.61 2.98 0.25 2010:Q3 6.60 2.90 0.75 2010:Q4 6.30 2.83 0.69 2011:Q1 6.04 2.72 0.63 2011:Q2 5.75 2.58 0.53 2011:Q3 5.45 2.44 0.41 2011:Q4 5.06 2.29 0.30 2012:Q1 4.65 2.12 0.19 2012:Q2 4.22 1.93 0.08 2012:Q3 3.79 1.74 0.02 2012:Q4 3.33 1.54 0.13 Forecast * Deviation from potential GDP. Return to table Bottomleft panel Policy Rates Percent Period United Kingdom Euro area Canada Japan 2 January 2007 5.00 3.50 4.25 ND 4 January 2007 5.00 3.50 4.25 0.25 11 January 2007 5.25 3.50 4.25 0.25 21 February 2007 5.25 3.50 4.25 0.50 8 March 2007 5.25 3.75 4.25 0.50 10 May 2007 5.50 3.75 4.25 0.50 6 June 2007 5.50 4.00 4.25 0.50 5 July 2007 5.75 4.00 4.25 0.50 10 July 2007 5.75 4.00 4.50 0.50 4 December 2007 5.75 4.00 4.25 0.50 6 December 2007 5.50 4.00 4.25 0.50 22 January 2008 5.50 4.00 4.00 0.50 7 February 2008 5.25 4.00 4.00 0.50 United Kingdom Euro area Canada Japan 4 March 2008 Period 5.25 4.00 3.50 0.50 10 April 2008 5.00 4.00 3.50 0.50 22 April 2008 5.00 4.00 3.00 0.50 3 July 2008 5.00 4.25 3.00 0.50 8 October 2008 4.50 3.75 2.50 0.50 21 October 2008 4.50 3.75 2.25 0.50 31 October 2008 4.50 3.75 2.25 0.30 6 November 2008 3.00 3.25 2.25 0.30 4 December 2008 2.00 2.50 2.25 0.30 9 December 2008 2.00 2.50 1.50 0.30 19 December 2008 2.00 2.50 1.50 0.10 8 January 2009 1.50 2.50 1.50 0.10 15 January 2009 1.50 2.00 1.50 0.10 20 January 2009 1.50 2.00 1.00 0.10 5 February 2009 1.00 2.00 1.00 0.10 3 March 2009 1.00 2.00 0.50 0.10 5 March 2009 0.50 1.50 0.50 0.10 2 April 2009 0.50 1.25 0.50 0.10 21 April 2009 0.50 1.25 0.25 0.10 7 May 2009 0.50 1.00 0.25 0.10 1 June 2010 0.50 1.00 0.50 0.10 20 July 2010 0.50 1.00 0.75 0.10 8 September 2010 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.10 1 October 2010 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.05 3 October 2011 0.50 1.00 1.25 0.05 2 January 2012 0.75 1.25 1.25 0.05 2 April 2012 1.00 1.25 1.25 0.05 2 July 2012 1.25 1.50 1.50 0.05 1 October 2012 1.50 1.75 1.50 0.05 31 December 2012 1.50 1.75 1.50 0.05 Forecast Bottomcenter panel CPI Ex. Food and Energy* Fourquarter percent change United Kingdom Euro area Japan 2006:Q1 Period 0.95 1.33 0.57 2006:Q2 0.88 1.47 0.52 2006:Q3 0.86 1.44 0.41 2006:Q4 1.36 1.51 0.29 2007:Q1 1.53 1.81 0.30 2007:Q2 1.62 1.85 0.32 2007:Q3 1.26 1.80 0.32 2007:Q4 1.04 1.72 0.18 2008:Q1 0.82 1.70 0.03 2008:Q2 1.12 1.60 0.14 2008:Q3 1.63 1.72 0.03 2008:Q4 1.21 1.85 0.07 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan 2009:Q1 1.17 1.55 0.34 2009:Q2 1.31 1.62 0.55 2009:Q3 1.67 1.36 0.93 2009:Q4 2.18 1.16 1.15 2010:Q1 3.01 0.94 1.17 2010:Q2 3.05 0.87 1.68 2010:Q3 2.64 1.03 1.57 2010:Q4 2.79 1.14 0.92 2011:Q1 3.97 1.30 0.52 2011:Q2 3.06 1.25 0.50 2011:Q3 3.15 1.14 0.55 2011:Q4 2.82 1.10 1.16 2012:Q1 1.73 1.18 1.02 2012:Q2 1.76 1.23 0.88 2012:Q3 1.82 1.30 0.77 2012:Q4 2.34 1.38 0.66 Forecast * Staff estimates. Return to text Bottomright panel BBB Corporate Spreads Weekly Basis points Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan 5 January 2007 116.59 76.70 29.35 12 January 2007 113.59 75.10 28.69 19 January 2007 113.20 73.37 27.38 26 January 2007 111.26 73.17 27.30 2 February 2007 111.06 74.65 26.76 9 February 2007 109.95 72.01 26.47 16 February 2007 109.47 71.70 27.65 23 February 2007 108.88 70.11 25.80 2 March 2007 108.71 73.62 24.53 9 March 2007 109.84 74.34 23.81 16 March 2007 111.57 76.26 23.57 23 March 2007 111.19 74.28 24.20 30 March 2007 110.89 72.56 25.23 6 April 2007 111.01 80.19 25.45 13 April 2007 110.97 78.11 25.78 20 April 2007 109.90 75.81 26.15 27 April 2007 109.70 75.39 25.13 4 May 2007 107.67 77.20 25.58 11 May 2007 107.47 76.20 25.54 18 May 2007 107.10 74.62 24.99 25 May 2007 105.01 72.73 25.54 1 June 2007 105.58 70.55 29.02 8 June 2007 106.94 73.06 27.58 15 June 2007 107.79 73.17 28.45 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan 22 June 2007 109.31 73.83 27.87 29 June 2007 113.35 76.93 29.82 6 July 2007 117.34 82.92 27.58 13 July 2007 120.17 85.65 28.00 20 July 2007 123.52 91.54 28.47 27 July 2007 132.03 102.02 27.61 3 August 2007 137.30 108.78 29.21 10 August 2007 132.89 110.44 29.84 17 August 2007 136.91 118.12 29.76 24 August 2007 139.38 118.60 32.93 31 August 2007 143.47 120.49 32.72 7 September 2007 150.43 124.19 31.08 14 September 2007 157.11 131.35 31.64 21 September 2007 147.00 120.52 34.11 28 September 2007 144.51 118.91 35.16 5 October 2007 144.20 118.50 34.55 12 October 2007 139.77 109.28 33.87 19 October 2007 142.31 112.39 34.09 26 October 2007 143.65 111.36 34.15 2 November 2007 145.57 113.87 33.41 9 November 2007 150.85 120.82 33.58 16 November 2007 155.30 129.24 35.01 23 November 2007 164.12 141.04 37.11 30 November 2007 163.58 145.49 38.62 7 December 2007 169.05 150.49 36.84 14 December 2007 171.24 152.87 36.78 21 December 2007 172.55 152.64 37.15 28 December 2007 172.29 153.27 36.12 4 January 2008 170.80 160.51 36.47 11 January 2008 178.27 170.49 35.55 18 January 2008 182.67 182.49 37.72 25 January 2008 191.61 193.14 38.92 1 February 2008 196.92 203.86 41.00 8 February 2008 203.84 211.01 38.84 15 February 2008 212.15 217.53 42.64 22 February 2008 219.39 222.03 44.41 29 February 2008 220.75 222.36 45.49 7 March 2008 230.90 238.34 45.47 14 March 2008 237.05 252.90 46.25 21 March 2008 239.05 253.31 46.06 28 March 2008 239.09 251.03 47.28 4 April 2008 243.69 244.35 47.92 11 April 2008 239.86 236.83 47.84 18 April 2008 233.59 222.79 45.82 25 April 2008 234.66 213.79 46.72 2 May 2008 224.78 199.71 46.05 9 May 2008 219.72 199.75 44.72 16 May 2008 206.60 193.15 44.23 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan 23 May 2008 208.17 193.38 42.26 30 May 2008 206.56 192.28 42.63 6 June 2008 205.14 193.06 37.46 13 June 2008 204.92 192.20 39.50 20 June 2008 208.55 197.46 38.65 27 June 2008 211.58 208.89 39.13 4 July 2008 215.22 216.68 38.15 11 July 2008 210.50 229.89 38.11 18 July 2008 207.78 226.62 39.53 25 July 2008 211.13 228.42 39.33 1 August 2008 208.65 229.02 41.74 8 August 2008 210.69 229.80 44.21 15 August 2008 212.70 227.38 44.16 22 August 2008 211.79 229.76 45.98 29 August 2008 216.39 232.98 47.60 5 September 2008 218.96 246.65 46.35 12 September 2008 218.65 251.21 46.27 19 September 2008 233.25 275.15 46.00 26 September 2008 235.29 297.88 46.69 3 October 2008 243.93 316.40 37.16 10 October 2008 254.73 392.84 33.26 17 October 2008 274.21 441.03 42.00 24 October 2008 289.97 502.48 40.22 31 October 2008 306.78 500.53 42.61 7 November 2008 338.67 481.09 45.50 14 November 2008 361.30 480.68 46.13 21 November 2008 369.90 498.91 46.98 28 November 2008 379.13 505.49 62.36 5 December 2008 395.77 503.76 64.25 12 December 2008 397.44 499.10 66.81 19 December 2008 390.16 496.79 69.50 26 December 2008 393.94 495.05 68.39 2 January 2009 398.44 495.87 70.72 9 January 2009 390.47 460.32 71.96 16 January 2009 382.20 453.43 72.16 23 January 2009 371.96 450.09 72.76 30 January 2009 370.07 457.53 72.79 6 February 2009 342.47 434.64 74.78 13 February 2009 325.65 431.29 72.62 20 February 2009 322.62 437.10 73.40 27 February 2009 326.37 436.59 74.90 6 March 2009 323.40 443.85 68.98 13 March 2009 321.66 449.98 69.66 20 March 2009 327.17 449.51 69.26 27 March 2009 331.00 437.48 71.56 3 April 2009 336.79 432.55 72.24 10 April 2009 336.61 418.35 82.43 17 April 2009 339.21 391.75 84.85 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan 24 April 2009 338.75 386.27 82.55 1 May 2009 331.03 375.11 89.00 8 May 2009 319.65 346.90 89.50 15 May 2009 318.15 334.06 83.50 22 May 2009 313.77 316.75 84.49 29 May 2009 315.63 305.48 71.64 5 June 2009 307.73 297.89 64.89 12 June 2009 302.42 289.56 61.21 19 June 2009 300.00 290.28 61.08 26 June 2009 299.30 293.22 58.06 3 July 2009 293.60 291.68 55.95 10 July 2009 286.87 279.34 57.68 17 July 2009 277.52 267.53 57.24 24 July 2009 268.90 248.51 57.93 31 July 2009 256.53 236.04 57.81 7 August 2009 249.45 229.89 56.42 14 August 2009 244.03 220.99 56.39 21 August 2009 241.94 222.13 54.48 28 August 2009 241.00 216.53 54.16 4 September 2009 236.30 212.26 54.13 11 September 2009 235.79 208.52 53.86 18 September 2009 232.82 201.33 51.89 25 September 2009 233.45 198.87 51.75 2 October 2009 233.84 198.14 46.93 9 October 2009 232.80 193.85 45.76 16 October 2009 225.57 188.59 40.78 23 October 2009 224.91 182.38 37.49 30 October 2009 223.72 181.91 38.06 6 November 2009 220.79 179.44 37.92 13 November 2009 221.44 171.18 35.20 20 November 2009 214.24 166.11 34.37 27 November 2009 211.17 171.50 33.17 4 December 2009 208.22 163.43 32.37 11 December 2009 202.52 169.75 32.65 18 December 2009 195.84 162.20 31.25 25 December 2009 194.23 174.48 33.16 1 January 2010 195.18 182.88 33.44 8 January 2010 180.33 165.18 33.54 15 January 2010 173.34 156.91 33.87 22 January 2010 173.51 161.65 33.88 29 January 2010 170.18 164.61 34.67 5 February 2010 167.94 181.23 40.28 12 February 2010 168.65 187.85 41.71 19 February 2010 170.97 195.04 37.70 26 February 2010 171.34 178.46 37.73 5 March 2010 167.02 180.80 32.27 12 March 2010 164.91 193.48 32.80 19 March 2010 163.98 191.62 32.56 Period United Kingdom Euro area Japan 26 March 2010 161.27 188.87 32.48 2 April 2010 162.67 187.45 31.33 9 April 2010 161.42 184.17 27.13 16 April 2010 163.89 180.69 23.59 23 April 2010 156.04 185.18 27.40 30 April 2010 161.43 194.10 27.30 7 May 2010 166.30 240.77 28.44 14 May 2010 164.51 219.24 31.45 21 May 2010 174.70 257.39 32.33 28 May 2010 179.47 253.30 32.98 4 June 2010 183.18 261.78 30.42 11 June 2010 190.00 269.02 29.65 18 June 2010 185.73 256.33 32.96 25 June 2010 184.50 257.27 32.92 2 July 2010 187.32 261.13 32.24 9 July 2010 189.08 260.69 33.58 16 July 2010 188.74 255.60 31.97 23 July 2010 191.47 243.88 24.74 30 July 2010 186.80 229.78 23.65 6 August 2010 184.45 218.42 26.47 13 August 2010 184.18 226.74 28.90 20 August 2010 181.32 226.06 34.83 27 August 2010 183.08 233.99 34.89 3 September 2010 185.54 238.56 33.51 10 September 2010 183.76 236.82 32.81 17 September 2010 186.29 235.02 32.89 24 September 2010 188.03 241.21 29.76 1 October 2010 188.58 247.50 32.21 8 October 2010 195.94 242.49 37.47 15 October 2010 184.48 235.53 34.96 22 October 2010 184.36 234.96 35.09 29 October 2010 186.94 234.29 36.33 5 November 2010 187.53 209.75 39.88 12 November 2010 186.85 218.55 34.13 19 November 2010 187.74 214.71 43.61 26 November 2010 190.95 232.49 37.53 3 December 2010 196.45 237.59 38.08 10 December 2010 194.21 241.10 36.59 17 December 2010 193.19 237.29 39.14 24 December 2010 193.09 238.82 39.04 31 December 2010 194.99 238.31 39.83 7 January 2011 189.87 242.04 41.13 14 January 2011 186.29 240.70 39.97 21 January 2011 183.83 230.89 40.43 28 January 2011 182.57 226.70 40.33 Exhibit 7 Asset Bubbles and Commodity Prices Topleft panel Flows to EME Dedicated Funds* Monthly Billions of U.S. dollars Period Bond funds Equity funds December 2006 1.14 3.72 January 2007 1.55 3.52 February 2007 1.19 1.28 March 2007 0.20 5.71 April 2007 0.38 2.16 May 2007 1.31 0.69 June 2007 1.07 0.89 July 2007 0.10 8.63 1.31 1.91 September 2007 0.02 7.30 October 2007 0.73 11.01 November 2007 0.13 4.73 December 2007 0.07 3.86 January 2008 0.10 10.29 February 2008 0.21 0.27 March 2008 0.18 2.84 April 2008 0.43 6.95 May 2008 0.20 5.44 June 2008 0.45 4.89 July 2008 0.32 6.41 August 2008 0.54 2.96 September 2008 3.39 5.47 October 2008 7.40 7.98 November 2008 2.51 1.11 December 2008 1.22 0.54 January 2009 0.77 0.30 February 2009 1.50 1.17 March 2009 0.76 0.69 April 2009 0.53 4.71 May 2009 1.02 7.46 June 2009 0.38 4.43 July 2009 0.96 3.01 August 2009 0.83 1.21 September 2009 2.10 1.59 October 2009 2.63 5.27 November 2009 2.30 2.55 December 2009 1.62 1.25 January 2010 1.74 2.09 February 2010 1.89 1.47 March 2010 4.17 3.20 April 2010 5.06 3.68 August 2007 Bond funds Equity funds May 2010 Period 1.32 4.63 June 2010 2.91 1.36 July 2010 3.68 3.38 August 2010 3.19 0.88 September 2010 3.93 5.35 October 2010 4.76 7.38 November 2010 1.81 5.29 December 2010 0.60 1.51 January 2011 1.54 4.81 * January 2011 flows are based on data through January 19th. Return to text Topright panel Real Exchange Rates Against the Dollar (USD/FC) Monthly January 2007 = 100 Period China Brazil Mexico Korea Emerging Markets January 2007 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 February 2007 100.27 102.03 99.48 100.16 100.31 March 2007 100.39 102.14 98.10 99.15 100.30 April 2007 100.54 104.95 99.10 100.49 101.17 May 2007 101.25 107.25 100.32 100.53 102.07 June 2007 102.68 110.29 100.38 100.62 102.27 July 2007 104.10 113.34 100.78 101.66 103.04 August 2007 105.20 109.23 September 2007 105.77 112.43 99.05 99.92 101.95 99.25 100.62 102.57 October 2007 106.26 118.94 101.20 102.35 104.08 November 2007 107.42 120.54 100.16 101.66 104.59 December 2007 108.36 119.76 100.40 100.38 104.95 January 2008 110.54 120.85 99.82 99.06 105.78 February 2008 113.38 124.10 101.16 98.92 106.85 March 2008 114.39 125.57 101.79 95.24 107.69 April 2008 115.59 127.58 104.05 94.92 108.63 May 2008 115.50 130.03 104.87 90.83 108.29 June 2008 115.83 133.15 105.68 91.04 108.81 July 2008 116.20 135.17 106.62 92.24 109.61 August 2008 115.81 133.89 108.39 89.45 108.68 September 2008 115.76 120.07 103.21 82.46 105.64 October 2008 116.96 100.61 88.27 71.22 99.11 November 2008 118.38 98.75 87.38 69.08 97.10 December 2008 118.25 94.56 86.53 71.51 96.67 January 2009 118.12 98.32 83.43 71.60 95.93 February 2009 117.26 97.80 79.11 67.50 93.69 March 2009 117.33 98.39 79.40 67.32 93.47 April 2009 117.38 103.86 87.16 73.29 96.41 May 2009 117.60 110.97 88.86 77.73 98.24 June 2009 116.47 116.82 87.57 76.99 98.58 July 2009 116.40 118.52 87.62 77.03 98.60 August 2009 116.31 123.86 89.91 78.30 99.46 Brazil Mexico Korea Emerging Markets September 2009 116.58 125.78 Period China 87.31 79.98 99.45 October 2009 116.72 131.72 88.51 82.43 100.74 November 2009 116.93 132.81 89.18 83.56 101.15 December 2009 117.48 131.24 90.98 83.71 101.31 January 2010 117.20 129.70 92.00 85.56 101.30 February 2010 117.50 126.41 91.58 84.49 100.26 March 2010 117.68 131.00 94.83 85.84 101.50 April 2010 117.94 134.00 97.31 87.81 102.62 May 2010 118.71 130.52 93.83 84.27 100.88 June 2010 118.80 131.40 94.25 81.00 100.45 July 2010 119.75 133.60 93.53 81.58 100.94 August 2010 119.84 134.03 93.86 83.34 101.53 September 2010 121.26 137.69 93.80 85.61 102.30 October 2010 123.09 141.13 96.82 88.70 104.15 November 2010 124.91 139.76 97.87 87.89 104.17 December 2010 124.46 141.39 97.26 86.80 104.06 January 2011 125.64 143.65 98.72 88.82 105.21 As shown in the chart, increasing values indicate foreign appreciation. Middleleft panel Property Prices January 2007 = 100 Period China Hong Kong January 2007 100.00 100.00 February 2007 100.72 100.70 March 2007 101.32 101.42 April 2007 102.06 101.48 May 2007 103.02 103.48 June 2007 104.06 105.45 July 2007 105.28 107.13 August 2007 106.69 108.33 September 2007 108.36 110.33 October 2007 110.08 114.70 November 2007 111.05 121.05 December 2007 111.35 125.89 January 2008 111.65 129.59 February 2008 112.05 131.32 March 2008 112.37 131.48 April 2008 112.60 128.66 May 2008 112.63 130.53 June 2008 112.68 130.96 July 2008 112.75 129.36 August 2008 112.58 127.34 September 2008 112.31 127.65 October 2008 111.96 120.76 November 2008 111.50 112.09 December 2008 111.00 112.08 January 2009 110.77 112.76 Period China Hong Kong February 2009 110.72 113.07 March 2009 110.91 113.93 April 2009 111.33 117.27 May 2009 111.94 120.85 June 2009 112.90 125.04 July 2009 113.87 127.96 August 2009 114.85 131.54 September 2009 115.47 135.96 October 2009 116.27 138.99 November 2009 117.77 141.34 December 2009 119.59 144.28 January 2010 121.15 145.72 February 2010 122.44 147.72 March 2010 123.75 149.87 April 2010 125.43 151.75 May 2010 125.62 151.21 June 2010 125.59 151.57 July 2010 125.52 155.72 August 2010 125.48 159.67 September 2010 125.90 162.96 October 2010 126.14 168.33 November 2010 126.65 173.95 December 2010 127.07 ND January 2007 = 100 Period Singapore* 2007:Q1 100.00 2007:Q2 108.11 2007:Q3 115.78 2007:Q4 123.12 2008:Q1 130.26 2008:Q2 130.05 2008:Q3 125.25 2008:Q4 117.00 2009:Q1 103.08 2009:Q2 97.81 2009:Q3 111.45 2009:Q4 118.80 2010:Q1 129.14 2010:Q2 135.29 2010:Q3 136.87 2010:Q4 139.48 * Data are quarterly. Return to table Middlecenter panel Corporate Debt Spreads* Percent Period Latin America Emerging Asia 11 January 2002 10.44 6.94 18 January 2002 10.86 6.93 25 January 2002 10.87 6.84 1 February 2002 10.95 6.65 8 February 2002 11.26 6.64 15 February 2002 11.23 6.60 22 February 2002 11.31 6.60 1 March 2002 13.89 6.66 8 March 2002 17.49 6.52 15 March 2002 17.28 5.77 22 March 2002 17.41 5.59 29 March 2002 17.06 5.56 5 April 2002 17.03 5.61 12 April 2002 17.59 5.56 19 April 2002 18.16 5.80 26 April 2002 18.71 5.47 3 May 2002 15.19 5.41 10 May 2002 14.68 5.35 17 May 2002 15.58 5.28 24 May 2002 15.91 5.41 31 May 2002 16.36 5.57 7 June 2002 17.41 5.58 14 June 2002 18.25 5.65 21 June 2002 19.03 5.69 28 June 2002 20.48 5.64 5 July 2002 20.57 5.84 12 July 2002 21.19 6.08 19 July 2002 21.75 6.25 26 July 2002 21.87 6.48 2 August 2002 24.14 6.56 9 August 2002 24.27 6.80 16 August 2002 23.93 6.83 23 August 2002 23.48 6.87 30 August 2002 23.00 6.88 6 September 2002 21.96 7.05 13 September 2002 21.82 7.03 20 September 2002 21.93 7.09 27 September 2002 22.49 7.16 4 October 2002 23.18 7.16 11 October 2002 23.44 7.16 18 October 2002 23.71 6.89 25 October 2002 24.15 6.79 1 November 2002 24.64 7.02 8 November 2002 24.74 6.88 15 November 2002 24.08 6.56 22 November 2002 22.93 6.41 29 November 2002 22.01 6.32 6 December 2002 20.42 6.43 13 December 2002 20.51 6.58 20 December 2002 19.97 6.59 27 December 2002 19.24 6.62 3 January 2003 18.47 6.73 10 January 2003 17.55 6.55 17 January 2003 17.15 6.54 24 January 2003 17.31 6.54 31 January 2003 17.31 6.48 7 February 2003 16.81 6.48 14 February 2003 16.68 6.44 21 February 2003 16.71 6.44 28 February 2003 17.06 6.52 7 March 2003 17.39 6.61 14 March 2003 17.21 6.58 21 March 2003 17.28 6.36 28 March 2003 17.54 6.43 4 April 2003 15.36 6.48 11 April 2003 14.64 6.37 18 April 2003 14.37 6.25 25 April 2003 14.08 6.14 2 May 2003 13.22 6.21 9 May 2003 12.90 6.04 16 May 2003 12.62 5.97 23 May 2003 12.58 6.02 30 May 2003 12.25 6.11 6 June 2003 11.41 6.10 13 June 2003 11.08 6.05 20 June 2003 10.44 5.80 27 June 2003 10.17 5.70 4 July 2003 9.77 5.61 11 July 2003 9.75 5.56 18 July 2003 9.62 5.43 25 July 2003 9.31 5.18 1 August 2003 9.19 5.08 8 August 2003 9.70 5.20 15 August 2003 9.60 5.09 22 August 2003 9.43 5.15 29 August 2003 8.91 5.00 5 September 2003 7.62 4.99 12 September 2003 7.86 5.13 19 September 2003 7.88 5.20 26 September 2003 7.93 5.25 3 October 2003 6.99 5.27 10 October 2003 6.39 5.06 17 October 2003 6.04 4.93 24 October 2003 5.96 4.95 31 October 2003 5.95 4.94 7 November 2003 5.62 4.64 14 November 2003 5.51 4.57 21 November 2003 5.62 4.66 28 November 2003 5.40 4.62 5 December 2003 5.10 4.54 12 December 2003 5.05 4.60 19 December 2003 4.98 4.59 26 December 2003 4.79 4.52 2 January 2004 4.80 4.49 9 January 2004 4.80 4.49 16 January 2004 4.91 4.58 23 January 2004 4.90 4.52 30 January 2004 4.86 4.44 6 February 2004 5.45 4.53 13 February 2004 5.56 4.63 20 February 2004 5.54 4.61 27 February 2004 5.71 4.50 5 March 2004 5.62 4.58 12 March 2004 5.64 4.74 19 March 2004 5.57 4.67 26 March 2004 5.43 4.64 2 April 2004 5.06 4.41 9 April 2004 4.67 4.14 16 April 2004 4.46 4.00 23 April 2004 4.52 3.91 30 April 2004 4.60 3.87 7 May 2004 4.97 3.87 14 May 2004 5.41 3.96 21 May 2004 5.38 4.01 28 May 2004 5.32 3.98 4 June 2004 5.09 3.98 11 June 2004 4.85 3.91 18 June 2004 4.78 3.90 25 June 2004 4.71 3.91 2 July 2004 4.94 3.60 9 July 2004 5.15 3.48 16 July 2004 4.97 3.46 23 July 2004 4.60 3.30 30 July 2004 4.46 3.22 6 August 2004 4.85 3.55 13 August 2004 4.84 3.53 20 August 2004 4.77 3.52 27 August 2004 4.62 3.60 3 September 2004 4.53 3.65 10 September 2004 4.41 3.60 17 September 2004 4.49 3.63 24 September 2004 4.45 3.63 1 October 2004 4.47 3.67 8 October 2004 4.39 3.68 15 October 2004 4.44 3.73 22 October 2004 4.41 3.69 29 October 2004 4.37 3.69 5 November 2004 4.16 3.76 12 November 2004 3.87 3.65 19 November 2004 3.82 3.60 26 November 2004 3.68 3.49 3 December 2004 3.71 3.56 10 December 2004 3.86 3.73 17 December 2004 3.85 3.68 24 December 2004 3.75 3.62 31 December 2004 3.65 3.54 7 January 2005 3.66 3.49 14 January 2005 3.75 3.31 21 January 2005 3.76 3.25 28 January 2005 3.66 3.15 4 February 2005 3.62 3.13 11 February 2005 3.55 3.12 18 February 2005 3.43 3.00 25 February 2005 3.29 2.92 4 March 2005 3.20 2.86 11 March 2005 3.07 2.76 18 March 2005 3.24 2.71 25 March 2005 3.40 2.78 1 April 2005 3.77 2.88 8 April 2005 3.91 2.99 15 April 2005 3.92 2.97 22 April 2005 4.16 3.05 29 April 2005 3.98 3.02 6 May 2005 3.90 3.15 13 May 2005 3.76 3.16 20 May 2005 3.78 3.11 27 May 2005 3.73 3.11 3 June 2005 3.76 3.15 10 June 2005 3.69 3.14 17 June 2005 3.55 3.07 24 June 2005 3.54 3.06 1 July 2005 3.58 3.13 8 July 2005 3.53 3.20 15 July 2005 3.40 3.19 22 July 2005 3.28 3.08 29 July 2005 3.25 3.05 5 August 2005 3.31 3.08 12 August 2005 3.24 3.02 19 August 2005 3.33 3.05 26 August 2005 3.40 3.08 2 September 2005 3.51 3.16 9 September 2005 3.43 3.13 16 September 2005 3.30 3.05 23 September 2005 3.20 3.03 30 September 2005 3.07 2.98 7 October 2005 3.06 2.95 14 October 2005 3.16 2.90 21 October 2005 3.29 2.88 28 October 2005 3.22 2.82 4 November 2005 3.25 2.73 11 November 2005 3.27 2.69 18 November 2005 3.32 2.68 25 November 2005 3.37 2.66 2 December 2005 3.31 2.59 9 December 2005 3.23 2.58 16 December 2005 3.21 2.60 23 December 2005 3.21 2.59 30 December 2005 3.25 2.61 6 January 2006 3.13 2.62 13 January 2006 3.00 2.57 20 January 2006 3.04 2.60 27 January 2006 2.92 2.51 3 February 2006 2.89 2.43 10 February 2006 2.80 2.35 17 February 2006 2.67 2.33 24 February 2006 2.64 2.31 3 March 2006 2.54 2.26 10 March 2006 2.52 2.26 17 March 2006 2.68 2.31 24 March 2006 2.64 2.28 31 March 2006 2.64 2.23 7 April 2006 2.64 2.29 14 April 2006 2.67 2.27 21 April 2006 2.64 2.25 28 April 2006 2.60 2.24 5 May 2006 2.59 2.29 12 May 2006 2.56 2.21 19 May 2006 2.77 2.26 26 May 2006 3.03 2.40 2 June 2006 3.17 2.76 9 June 2006 3.22 3.14 16 June 2006 3.19 3.22 23 June 2006 3.05 3.09 30 June 2006 3.22 3.17 7 July 2006 3.22 3.16 14 July 2006 3.13 3.16 21 July 2006 3.04 3.20 28 July 2006 2.93 3.18 4 August 2006 3.27 3.18 11 August 2006 3.16 3.14 18 August 2006 3.13 3.17 25 August 2006 3.16 3.18 1 September 2006 3.26 3.15 8 September 2006 3.29 3.11 15 September 2006 3.30 3.10 22 September 2006 3.37 3.18 29 September 2006 3.51 3.25 6 October 2006 3.55 3.24 13 October 2006 3.32 3.07 20 October 2006 3.28 3.01 27 October 2006 3.26 2.98 3 November 2006 3.41 3.02 10 November 2006 3.36 2.96 17 November 2006 3.31 2.91 24 November 2006 3.39 2.91 1 December 2006 3.51 3.02 8 December 2006 3.57 3.06 15 December 2006 3.41 2.98 22 December 2006 3.33 2.95 29 December 2006 3.22 2.84 5 January 2007 3.23 3.16 12 January 2007 3.19 3.13 19 January 2007 3.14 3.08 26 January 2007 3.10 2.99 2 February 2007 3.11 3.04 9 February 2007 3.13 3.05 16 February 2007 3.06 3.06 23 February 2007 3.08 3.09 2 March 2007 3.31 3.26 9 March 2007 3.44 3.39 16 March 2007 3.39 3.36 23 March 2007 3.33 3.28 30 March 2007 3.20 3.19 6 April 2007 3.11 3.12 13 April 2007 2.98 3.01 20 April 2007 3.01 3.02 27 April 2007 3.00 2.99 4 May 2007 3.09 3.04 11 May 2007 3.10 3.02 18 May 2007 3.03 2.92 25 May 2007 2.90 2.82 1 June 2007 2.90 2.78 8 June 2007 2.88 2.72 15 June 2007 2.96 2.66 22 June 2007 3.00 2.71 29 June 2007 3.20 2.83 6 July 2007 3.20 2.94 13 July 2007 3.21 2.96 20 July 2007 3.25 3.03 27 July 2007 3.74 3.28 3 August 2007 4.24 3.74 10 August 2007 4.26 3.69 17 August 2007 4.72 3.94 24 August 2007 4.93 4.38 31 August 2007 4.96 4.33 7 September 2007 5.03 4.42 14 September 2007 5.02 4.42 21 September 2007 4.53 4.12 28 September 2007 4.38 4.00 5 October 2007 4.43 4.01 12 October 2007 4.21 3.79 19 October 2007 4.25 3.87 26 October 2007 4.50 4.00 2 November 2007 4.46 4.01 9 November 2007 4.76 4.26 16 November 2007 5.04 4.44 23 November 2007 5.54 4.72 30 November 2007 5.78 5.00 7 December 2007 5.71 5.14 14 December 2007 5.52 4.99 21 December 2007 5.57 4.99 28 December 2007 5.39 4.88 4 January 2008 5.69 5.10 11 January 2008 5.86 5.46 18 January 2008 6.09 5.70 25 January 2008 6.37 5.96 1 February 2008 6.25 5.94 8 February 2008 6.36 6.02 15 February 2008 6.32 6.04 22 February 2008 6.18 5.95 29 February 2008 6.23 6.03 7 March 2008 6.66 6.25 14 March 2008 6.81 6.39 21 March 2008 7.06 6.61 28 March 2008 6.88 6.43 4 April 2008 6.84 6.50 11 April 2008 6.74 6.48 18 April 2008 6.50 6.37 25 April 2008 6.19 6.09 2 May 2008 6.20 6.07 9 May 2008 6.24 6.03 16 May 2008 6.20 5.94 23 May 2008 6.14 5.83 30 May 2008 5.89 5.69 6 June 2008 5.99 5.89 13 June 2008 5.67 5.67 20 June 2008 5.63 5.70 27 June 2008 5.92 5.97 4 July 2008 7.08 6.31 11 July 2008 7.38 6.59 18 July 2008 7.50 6.47 25 July 2008 7.30 6.27 1 August 2008 7.50 6.35 8 August 2008 7.69 6.40 15 August 2008 7.96 6.42 22 August 2008 8.03 6.57 29 August 2008 7.95 6.64 5 September 2008 7.97 6.76 12 September 2008 8.26 6.89 19 September 2008 9.15 7.39 26 September 2008 9.07 7.68 10.18 8.46 3 October 2008 10 October 2008 11.58 9.73 17 October 2008 12.85 11.13 24 October 2008 15.53 13.78 31 October 2008 18.05 19.53 7 November 2008 18.06 19.85 14 November 2008 19.19 19.65 21 November 2008 19.76 20.65 28 November 2008 19.64 20.83 5 December 2008 20.30 21.94 12 December 2008 20.18 22.11 19 December 2008 19.93 22.67 26 December 2008 19.00 22.60 2 January 2009 18.81 22.16 9 January 2009 18.07 21.40 16 January 2009 17.52 20.73 23 January 2009 17.43 20.16 30 January 2009 16.88 19.78 6 February 2009 16.73 20.11 13 February 2009 16.70 19.45 20 February 2009 16.48 19.48 27 February 2009 16.32 19.70 6 March 2009 16.85 20.47 13 March 2009 17.14 20.28 20 March 2009 17.07 20.01 27 March 2009 16.69 19.47 3 April 2009 16.82 20.30 10 April 2009 16.24 19.99 17 April 2009 15.46 19.66 24 April 2009 15.16 19.27 1 May 2009 14.83 18.66 8 May 2009 14.49 17.48 15 May 2009 14.16 17.35 22 May 2009 13.79 17.10 29 May 2009 13.47 16.43 5 June 2009 12.26 13.47 12 June 2009 11.42 12.84 19 June 2009 11.50 13.14 26 June 2009 11.73 13.37 3 July 2009 11.83 12.74 10 July 2009 11.94 12.87 17 July 2009 11.75 12.48 24 July 2009 11.53 11.50 31 July 2009 11.11 10.79 7 August 2009 10.51 8.46 14 August 2009 10.36 8.43 21 August 2009 10.50 8.56 28 August 2009 10.34 8.48 4 September 2009 10.36 8.20 11 September 2009 10.19 7.99 18 September 2009 9.62 7.59 25 September 2009 9.35 7.44 2 October 2009 9.40 7.60 9 October 2009 9.16 7.50 16 October 2009 8.73 7.24 23 October 2009 8.77 7.15 30 October 2009 8.69 7.36 6 November 2009 9.20 7.52 13 November 2009 9.27 7.46 20 November 2009 9.35 7.54 27 November 2009 9.40 7.45 4 December 2009 10.37 7.54 11 December 2009 10.18 7.33 18 December 2009 9.82 7.22 25 December 2009 9.61 6.97 1 January 2010 9.60 6.68 8 January 2010 9.48 6.65 15 January 2010 8.88 6.70 22 January 2010 9.19 6.72 29 January 2010 9.46 6.70 5 February 2010 9.44 6.64 12 February 2010 9.57 6.76 19 February 2010 9.46 6.72 26 February 2010 9.41 6.66 5 March 2010 9.20 6.22 12 March 2010 8.93 5.92 19 March 2010 8.64 5.62 26 March 2010 8.45 5.44 2 April 2010 8.47 5.30 9 April 2010 8.16 5.14 16 April 2010 7.86 5.03 23 April 2010 7.73 5.01 30 April 2010 7.66 5.01 7 May 2010 8.40 5.37 14 May 2010 8.80 5.49 21 May 2010 9.26 5.77 28 May 2010 9.76 6.12 4 June 2010 9.79 6.27 11 June 2010 10.06 6.34 18 June 2010 9.76 6.10 25 June 2010 9.59 6.01 2 July 2010 9.89 6.26 9 July 2010 9.91 6.21 16 July 2010 9.66 5.95 23 July 2010 9.60 5.94 30 July 2010 9.33 5.72 6 August 2010 9.07 5.83 13 August 2010 9.17 5.73 20 August 2010 9.22 5.47 27 August 2010 9.40 5.43 3 September 2010 9.56 5.62 10 September 2010 9.54 5.56 17 September 2010 9.54 5.63 24 September 2010 9.44 5.70 1 October 2010 9.34 5.60 8 October 2010 9.30 5.50 15 October 2010 8.94 5.35 22 October 2010 9.09 5.42 29 October 2010 8.86 5.34 5 November 2010 9.51 5.46 12 November 2010 9.38 5.29 19 November 2010 9.45 5.32 26 November 2010 9.57 5.39 3 December 2010 9.67 5.44 * Source: Merrill Lynch. U.S. dollardenominated debt over fiveyear Treasury rate, composite BB rating for Asia, B for Latin America. Return to text Middleright panel Policy Rates Percent Period China* Brazil Mexico Korea 1 January 2007 6.12 ND ND ND 2 January 2007 6.12 ND ND 4.50 3 January 2007 6.12 13.25 ND 4.50 24 January 2007 6.12 13.00 ND 4.50 26 January 2007 6.12 13.00 7.00 4.50 1 March 2007 6.39 13.00 7.00 4.50 7 March 2007 6.39 12.75 7.00 4.50 19 April 2007 6.39 12.50 7.00 4.50 27 April 2007 6.39 12.50 7.25 4.50 1 May 2007 6.57 12.50 7.25 4.50 6 June 2007 6.57 12.00 7.25 4.50 2 July 2007 6.84 12.00 7.25 4.50 12 July 2007 6.84 12.00 7.25 4.75 19 July 2007 6.84 11.50 7.25 4.75 1 August 2007 7.02 11.50 7.25 4.75 9 August 2007 7.02 11.50 7.25 5.00 3 September 2007 7.29 11.50 7.25 5.00 6 September 2007 7.29 11.25 7.25 5.00 Period China* Brazil Mexico Korea 26 October 2007 7.29 11.25 7.50 5.00 3 December 2007 7.47 11.25 7.50 5.00 17 April 2008 7.47 11.75 7.50 5.00 5 June 2008 7.47 12.25 7.50 5.00 20 June 2008 7.47 12.25 7.75 5.00 18 July 2008 7.47 12.25 8.00 5.00 24 July 2008 7.47 13.00 8.00 5.00 7 August 2008 7.47 13.00 8.00 5.25 15 August 2008 7.47 13.00 8.25 5.25 1 September 2008 7.20 13.00 8.25 5.25 11 September 2008 7.20 13.75 8.25 5.25 1 October 2008 6.66 13.75 8.25 5.25 9 October 2008 6.66 13.75 8.25 5.00 27 October 2008 6.66 13.75 8.25 4.25 3 November 2008 5.58 13.75 8.25 4.25 7 November 2008 5.58 13.75 8.25 4.00 1 December 2008 5.31 13.75 8.25 4.00 11 December 2008 5.31 13.75 8.25 3.00 9 January 2009 5.31 13.75 8.25 2.50 16 January 2009 5.31 13.75 7.75 2.50 21 January 2009 5.31 12.75 7.75 2.50 12 February 2009 5.31 12.75 7.75 2.00 20 February 2009 5.31 12.75 7.50 2.00 11 March 2009 5.31 11.25 7.50 2.00 20 March 2009 5.31 11.25 6.75 2.00 17 April 2009 5.31 11.25 6.00 2.00 29 April 2009 5.31 10.25 6.00 2.00 15 May 2009 5.31 10.25 5.25 2.00 10 June 2009 5.31 9.25 5.25 2.00 19 June 2009 5.31 9.25 4.75 2.00 17 July 2009 5.31 9.25 4.50 2.00 22 July 2009 5.31 8.75 4.50 2.00 28 April 2010 5.31 9.50 4.50 2.00 9 June 2010 5.31 10.25 4.50 2.00 9 July 2010 5.31 10.25 4.50 2.25 21 July 2010 5.31 10.75 4.50 2.25 1 October 2010 5.56 10.75 4.50 2.25 16 November 2010 5.56 10.75 4.50 2.50 1 December 2010 5.81 10.75 4.50 2.50 3 January 2011 6.06 10.75 4.50 2.50 13 January 2011 6.06 10.75 4.50 2.75 19 January 2011 6.06 11.25 4.50 2.75 25 January 2011 6.06 11.50 4.50 2.75 26 January 2011 6.06 11.50 4.50 3.00 1 April 2011 6.31 12.00 4.50 3.25 1 July 2011 6.56 12.25 4.50 3.50 3 October 2011 6.56 12.50 4.50 3.50 Forecast Period China* Brazil Mexico Korea 2 January 2012 6.81 12.50 4.75 3.50 2 April 2012 6.81 12.50 5.25 3.50 2 July 2012 7.06 12.25 6.00 3.50 1 October 2012 7.06 12.00 6.00 3.50 31 December 2012 7.06 12.00 6.00 3.50 * Rate for China is the oneyear lending rate. Return to table Bottomleft panel Emerging Market CPI 12month percent change Headline CPI Excluding food January 2006 Period 4.95 5.79 February 2006 4.62 5.59 March 2006 4.39 5.54 April 2006 4.44 5.60 May 2006 4.57 5.76 June 2006 4.66 5.82 July 2006 4.52 5.87 August 2006 4.61 5.78 September 2006 4.59 5.51 October 2006 4.18 5.03 November 2006 4.24 4.90 December 2006 4.59 4.91 January 2007 4.31 4.47 February 2007 4.48 4.66 March 2007 4.62 4.66 April 2007 4.50 4.50 May 2007 4.50 4.46 June 2007 4.81 4.41 July 2007 5.07 4.19 August 2007 5.34 4.12 September 2007 5.35 4.15 October 2007 5.79 4.32 November 2007 6.21 4.76 December 2007 6.14 4.82 January 2008 6.74 5.08 February 2008 7.52 5.21 March 2008 7.79 5.51 April 2008 8.16 5.68 May 2008 8.36 5.86 June 2008 8.77 6.60 July 2008 8.75 7.00 August 2008 8.22 6.96 September 2008 7.96 6.88 October 2008 7.63 6.63 November 2008 6.71 5.76 December 2008 5.86 4.99 January 2009 5.18 4.27 Period Headline CPI Excluding food February 2009 3.82 3.88 March 2009 3.71 3.59 April 2009 3.26 3.30 May 2009 2.95 3.03 June 2009 2.26 2.42 July 2009 2.04 2.20 August 2009 2.40 2.42 September 2009 2.57 2.54 October 2009 2.57 2.75 November 2009 3.22 3.42 December 2009 4.04 4.17 January 2010 4.12 4.54 February 2010 4.79 4.81 March 2010 4.66 4.81 April 2010 4.95 5.05 May 2010 4.99 5.14 June 2010 4.84 5.01 July 2010 4.91 4.89 August 2010 4.93 4.78 September 2010 5.13 4.66 October 2010 5.49 4.67 November 2010 5.72 4.77 December 2010 5.75 ND Bottomright panel Commodity Prices Oil import price (Dollars per barrel) Nonfuel index (January 2008 = 100) January 2007 53.11 89.99 February 2007 52.60 91.99 March 2007 56.21 93.94 April 2007 60.94 98.64 May 2007 64.12 99.77 June 2007 65.37 98.39 July 2007 69.08 97.78 August 2007 70.25 93.14 September 2007 70.43 94.61 October 2007 74.67 95.80 November 2007 81.97 95.17 December 2007 84.01 94.13 January 2008 85.42 100.00 February 2008 85.69 106.49 March 2008 91.58 110.31 April 2008 98.90 109.67 May 2008 108.44 108.20 June 2008 118.63 109.08 July 2008 124.66 109.68 August 2008 118.62 103.15 Period Period September 2008 Oil import price (Dollars per barrel) Nonfuel index (January 2008 = 100) 107.11 97.78 October 2008 91.53 82.99 November 2008 65.00 76.26 December 2008 49.01 70.01 January 2009 40.91 70.90 February 2009 40.92 69.10 March 2009 42.87 68.69 April 2009 47.69 72.26 May 2009 52.72 76.21 June 2009 60.86 79.16 July 2009 63.26 79.84 August 2009 66.53 84.64 September 2009 69.08 83.62 October 2009 68.70 84.84 November 2009 73.36 87.94 December 2009 73.67 91.18 January 2010 75.49 92.47 February 2010 73.87 90.36 March 2010 75.98 93.51 April 2010 78.84 100.23 May 2010 78.26 95.28 June 2010 73.87 93.02 July 2010 73.80 97.13 August 2010 74.80 101.77 September 2010 73.61 104.71 October 2010 76.11 108.69 November 2010 78.60 111.63 December 2010 86.97 116.50 January 2011 88.38 119.08 February 2011 88.70 119.05 March 2011 89.21 119.16 April 2011 89.76 119.28 May 2011 90.46 119.34 June 2011 90.98 119.32 July 2011 91.29 119.32 August 2011 91.45 119.04 September 2011 91.63 118.74 October 2011 91.83 118.49 November 2011 92.00 118.28 December 2011 92.14 118.14 January 2012 92.16 118.12 February 2012 92.14 118.08 March 2012 92.11 118.03 April 2012 92.07 117.91 May 2012 92.04 117.78 June 2012 92.01 117.64 July 2012 91.93 117.50 Forecast Oil import price (Dollars per barrel) Nonfuel index (January 2008 = 100) August 2012 91.84 117.16 September 2012 91.76 116.83 October 2012 91.70 116.65 November 2012 91.67 116.52 December 2012 91.69 116.48 Period Exhibit 8 U.S. Trade Outlook Topleft panel Real Exports and Imports Percent change, a.r. Real exports Real imports 2008:Q1 Period 5.72 1.42 2008:Q2 13.24 2.94 2008:Q3 5.01 0.11 2008:Q4 21.91 22.86 2009:Q1 27.76 35.26 2009:Q2 1.03 10.63 2009:Q3 12.18 21.93 2009:Q4 24.36 4.92 2010:Q1 11.37 11.21 2010:Q2 9.12 33.46 2010:Q3 6.76 16.81 2010:Q4 8.90 13.82 2011:Q1 10.14 9.32 2011:Q2 9.08 8.80 2011:Q3 8.69 8.26 2011:Q4 8.78 0.75 2012:Q1 8.88 4.98 2012:Q2 8.59 5.81 2012:Q3 8.44 7.48 2012:Q4 8.49 5.62 Forecast Topright panel Contribution of Net Exports to Real GDP Growth Period Percentage points, a.r. 2009:H1 2.2 2009:H2 0.3 2010:Q1 0.3 2010:Q2 3.5 2010:Q3 1.7 Forecast 2010:Q4 3.5 2011 0.1 Period Percentage points, a.r. 2012 0.2 [Data are approximate.] Middleleft panel Imports and Industrial Production* Industrial production (percent change, a.r.)** Change in import penetration (percentage points)** 2.43 0.11 0.92 0.50 0.35 1.10 0.89 0.55 2.70 0.02 3.08 1.05 3.29 0.67 3.33 0.09 3.37 0.45 3.92 1.28 4.80 0.31 5.34 1.24 6.09 0.17 9.51 0.76 9.71 0.41 10.43 1.56 13.17 0.73 14.56 0.65 15.47 2.13 16.08 1.07 30.34 0.39 [As shown in the chart, a trend line begins at about (10,0.45) and ends at about (35,1.2).] * 21 disaggregated manufacturing sectors. Return to text ** From 2009:Q2 to 2010:Q3. Return to table Middleright panel Real Core Exports and Imports* Billions of chained (2005) dollars, a.r. Exports: Actual Exports: Model solution Imports: Actual Imports: Model solution 2008:Q1 1022.67 1010.81 1382.99 1364.50 2008:Q2 1056.65 1021.81 1391.28 1352.77 2008:Q3 1051.69 1031.83 1364.88 1322.56 2008:Q4 976.25 1018.06 1248.43 1269.28 2009:Q1 878.97 987.49 1080.33 1224.67 2009:Q2 870.93 999.29 1035.39 1211.00 2009:Q3 909.02 1018.07 1099.20 1221.69 2009:Q4 969.45 1038.88 1151.84 1252.89 2010:Q1 999.19 1060.07 1193.84 1286.06 2010:Q2 1021.39 1080.49 1278.55 1304.36 2010:Q3 1041.12 1087.74 1326.20 1315.52 Period Exports: Actual Exports: Model solution Imports: Actual Imports: Model solution 2010:Q4 1070.65 1099.87 1312.89 1329.23 2011:Q1 1098.73 1114.77 1339.22 1344.29 2011:Q2 1125.25 1133.34 1359.04 1360.85 2011:Q3 1150.83 1156.33 1376.89 1378.81 2011:Q4 1177.23 1182.90 1396.57 1398.44 2012:Q1 1204.25 1210.11 1416.89 1418.84 2012:Q2 1230.53 1236.59 1438.07 1440.43 2012:Q3 1256.86 1263.12 1461.99 1464.38 2012:Q4 1283.97 1290.43 1489.16 1491.22 Period Forecast * Core exports exclude computers, semiconductors, and services. Core imports also exclude petroleum and natural gas. Return to text Bottomleft panel Broad Real Dollar Period Index, 2008:Q1 = 100 2000:Q1 117.52 2000:Q2 120.45 2000:Q3 121.91 2000:Q4 125.10 2001:Q1 126.27 2001:Q2 128.84 2001:Q3 128.39 2001:Q4 128.86 2002:Q1 130.74 2002:Q2 128.69 2002:Q3 126.41 2002:Q4 127.35 2003:Q1 124.84 2003:Q2 120.19 2003:Q3 120.49 2003:Q4 116.61 2004:Q1 114.62 2004:Q2 117.29 2004:Q3 116.32 2004:Q4 112.46 2005:Q1 111.35 2005:Q2 112.78 2005:Q3 113.96 2005:Q4 115.13 2006:Q1 113.42 2006:Q2 112.08 2006:Q3 112.08 2006:Q4 110.30 2007:Q1 110.26 2007:Q2 108.11 2007:Q3 105.88 2007:Q4 102.22 Period Index, 2008:Q1 = 100 2008:Q1 100.00 2008:Q2 98.32 2008:Q3 100.87 2008:Q4 109.13 2009:Q1 111.47 2009:Q2 107.50 2009:Q3 104.45 2009:Q4 101.57 2010:Q1 102.46 2010:Q2 103.44 2010:Q3 102.03 2010:Q4 98.29 Forecast 2011:Q1 97.31 2011:Q2 96.46 2011:Q3 95.76 2011:Q4 95.01 2012:Q1 94.17 2012:Q2 93.26 2012:Q3 92.37 2012:Q4 91.47 Bottomright panel Current Account Balance Period Percent of GDP 2001:Q1 4.22 2001:Q2 3.78 2001:Q3 4.05 2001:Q4 3.39 2002:Q1 3.96 2002:Q2 4.35 2002:Q3 4.33 2002:Q4 4.57 2003:Q1 4.96 2003:Q2 4.73 2003:Q3 4.62 2003:Q4 4.41 2004:Q1 4.71 2004:Q2 5.29 2004:Q3 5.31 2004:Q4 5.91 2005:Q1 5.64 2005:Q2 5.72 2005:Q3 5.81 2005:Q4 6.48 2006:Q1 6.01 2006:Q2 6.04 2006:Q3 6.38 Period Percent of GDP 2006:Q4 5.54 2007:Q1 5.74 2007:Q2 5.47 2007:Q3 4.83 2007:Q4 4.41 2008:Q1 4.80 2008:Q2 4.89 2008:Q3 4.76 2008:Q4 4.16 2009:Q1 2.72 2009:Q2 2.41 2009:Q3 2.76 2009:Q4 2.83 2010:Q1 3.02 2010:Q2 3.38 2010:Q3 3.45 Forecast 2010:Q4 3.10 2011:Q1 3.34 2011:Q2 3.33 2011:Q3 3.40 2011:Q4 3.11 2012:Q1 3.05 2012:Q2 2.87 2012:Q3 2.86 2012:Q4 2.71 Exhibit 9 Financial Market Developments Topleft panel Treasury and Corporate Rates Daily Percent Date 10year Treasury note 10year Corporate BBB 4 January 2010 3.85 5.97 5 January 2010 3.77 5.86 6 January 2010 3.85 5.88 7 January 2010 3.85 5.87 8 January 2010 3.83 5.84 11 January 2010 3.85 5.85 12 January 2010 3.74 5.75 13 January 2010 3.80 5.81 14 January 2010 3.76 5.75 15 January 2010 3.70 5.71 18 January 2010 ND ND 19 January 2010 3.73 5.75 Date 10year Treasury note 10year Corporate BBB 20 January 2010 3.68 5.71 21 January 2010 3.62 5.67 22 January 2010 3.62 5.68 25 January 2010 3.66 5.73 26 January 2010 3.65 5.74 27 January 2010 3.66 5.75 28 January 2010 3.68 5.78 29 January 2010 3.63 5.72 1 February 2010 3.68 5.79 2 February 2010 3.67 5.76 3 February 2010 3.73 5.82 4 February 2010 3.62 5.76 5 February 2010 3.59 5.72 8 February 2010 3.62 5.77 9 February 2010 3.67 5.83 10 February 2010 3.72 5.91 11 February 2010 3.73 5.92 12 February 2010 3.69 5.89 15 February 2010 ND ND 16 February 2010 3.66 5.87 17 February 2010 3.74 5.95 18 February 2010 3.79 5.97 19 February 2010 3.78 5.93 22 February 2010 3.80 5.94 23 February 2010 3.69 5.82 24 February 2010 3.70 5.83 25 February 2010 3.64 5.78 26 February 2010 3.61 5.72 1 March 2010 3.61 5.68 2 March 2010 3.62 5.62 3 March 2010 3.63 5.73 4 March 2010 3.61 5.70 5 March 2010 3.69 5.76 8 March 2010 3.72 5.76 9 March 2010 3.71 5.74 10 March 2010 3.73 5.75 11 March 2010 3.73 5.74 12 March 2010 3.71 5.73 15 March 2010 3.71 5.72 16 March 2010 3.66 5.66 17 March 2010 3.65 5.65 18 March 2010 3.68 5.67 19 March 2010 3.70 5.67 22 March 2010 3.67 5.65 23 March 2010 3.69 5.66 24 March 2010 3.84 5.80 25 March 2010 3.91 5.85 26 March 2010 3.86 5.81 Date 10year Treasury note 10year Corporate BBB 29 March 2010 3.88 5.81 30 March 2010 3.88 5.81 31 March 2010 3.84 5.76 1 April 2010 3.89 5.77 2 April 2010 3.96 ND 5 April 2010 4.01 5.83 6 April 2010 3.98 5.83 7 April 2010 3.89 5.71 8 April 2010 3.91 5.74 9 April 2010 3.90 5.73 12 April 2010 3.87 5.66 13 April 2010 3.84 5.64 14 April 2010 3.88 5.69 15 April 2010 3.86 5.64 16 April 2010 3.79 5.58 19 April 2010 3.83 5.60 20 April 2010 3.82 5.59 21 April 2010 3.77 5.53 22 April 2010 3.80 5.55 23 April 2010 3.84 5.61 26 April 2010 3.83 5.59 27 April 2010 3.71 5.50 28 April 2010 3.80 5.58 29 April 2010 3.76 5.53 30 April 2010 3.69 5.46 3 May 2010 3.72 5.52 4 May 2010 3.63 5.43 5 May 2010 3.58 5.40 6 May 2010 3.41 5.33 7 May 2010 3.45 5.47 10 May 2010 3.57 5.52 11 May 2010 3.56 5.57 12 May 2010 3.56 5.56 13 May 2010 3.55 5.52 14 May 2010 3.44 5.47 17 May 2010 3.47 5.49 18 May 2010 3.38 5.48 19 May 2010 3.36 5.39 20 May 2010 3.25 5.42 21 May 2010 3.20 5.39 24 May 2010 3.23 5.41 25 May 2010 3.18 5.46 26 May 2010 3.21 5.47 27 May 2010 3.34 5.59 28 May 2010 3.31 5.55 31 May 2010 ND ND 1 June 2010 3.29 5.58 2 June 2010 3.35 5.64 Date 10year Treasury note 10year Corporate BBB 3 June 2010 3.39 5.66 4 June 2010 3.20 5.47 7 June 2010 3.17 5.56 8 June 2010 3.18 5.57 9 June 2010 3.20 5.60 10 June 2010 3.33 5.70 11 June 2010 3.24 5.60 14 June 2010 3.28 5.71 15 June 2010 3.32 5.67 16 June 2010 3.27 5.61 17 June 2010 3.21 5.53 18 June 2010 3.24 5.60 21 June 2010 3.26 5.59 22 June 2010 3.18 5.52 23 June 2010 3.13 5.44 24 June 2010 3.14 5.55 25 June 2010 3.12 5.44 28 June 2010 3.05 5.37 29 June 2010 2.97 5.33 30 June 2010 2.97 5.30 1 July 2010 2.96 5.29 2 July 2010 3.00 5.49 5 July 2010 ND ND 6 July 2010 2.95 5.29 7 July 2010 3.00 5.36 8 July 2010 3.04 5.44 9 July 2010 3.07 5.47 12 July 2010 3.08 5.41 13 July 2010 3.15 5.42 14 July 2010 3.07 5.40 15 July 2010 3.00 5.28 16 July 2010 2.96 5.38 19 July 2010 2.99 5.39 20 July 2010 2.98 5.25 21 July 2010 2.90 5.19 22 July 2010 2.96 5.18 23 July 2010 3.02 5.27 26 July 2010 3.03 5.19 27 July 2010 3.08 5.24 28 July 2010 3.03 5.16 29 July 2010 3.03 5.17 30 July 2010 2.94 5.08 2 August 2010 2.99 5.15 3 August 2010 2.94 5.08 4 August 2010 2.98 5.10 5 August 2010 2.94 5.15 6 August 2010 2.86 5.07 9 August 2010 2.86 5.06 Date 10year Treasury note 10year Corporate BBB 10 August 2010 2.79 5.05 11 August 2010 2.72 4.98 12 August 2010 2.74 5.01 13 August 2010 2.68 4.98 16 August 2010 2.58 4.88 17 August 2010 2.64 4.95 18 August 2010 2.64 4.92 19 August 2010 2.58 4.86 20 August 2010 2.62 4.89 23 August 2010 2.60 4.89 24 August 2010 2.50 4.80 25 August 2010 2.54 4.86 26 August 2010 2.50 4.83 27 August 2010 2.66 4.99 30 August 2010 2.54 4.90 31 August 2010 2.47 4.86 1 September 2010 2.58 4.96 2 September 2010 2.63 4.99 3 September 2010 2.72 5.04 6 September 2010 ND ND 7 September 2010 2.61 4.94 8 September 2010 2.66 4.99 9 September 2010 2.77 5.09 10 September 2010 2.81 5.09 13 September 2010 2.74 5.03 14 September 2010 2.68 4.96 15 September 2010 2.74 5.02 16 September 2010 2.77 5.05 17 September 2010 2.75 5.05 20 September 2010 2.72 5.01 21 September 2010 2.61 4.90 22 September 2010 2.56 4.87 23 September 2010 2.56 4.88 24 September 2010 2.62 4.92 27 September 2010 2.54 4.83 28 September 2010 2.48 4.78 29 September 2010 2.52 4.82 30 September 2010 2.53 4.76 1 October 2010 2.54 4.77 4 October 2010 2.50 4.74 5 October 2010 2.50 4.76 6 October 2010 2.41 4.67 7 October 2010 2.41 4.67 8 October 2010 2.41 4.64 11 October 2010 ND ND 12 October 2010 2.44 4.68 13 October 2010 2.46 4.68 14 October 2010 2.52 4.74 Date 10year Treasury note 10year Corporate BBB 15 October 2010 2.59 4.82 18 October 2010 2.52 4.73 19 October 2010 2.50 4.71 20 October 2010 2.51 4.71 21 October 2010 2.57 4.76 22 October 2010 2.59 4.78 25 October 2010 2.59 4.77 26 October 2010 2.67 4.85 27 October 2010 2.75 4.91 28 October 2010 2.69 4.85 29 October 2010 2.63 4.79 1 November 2010 2.66 4.80 2 November 2010 2.63 4.75 3 November 2010 2.67 4.77 4 November 2010 2.53 4.61 5 November 2010 2.58 4.65 8 November 2010 2.60 4.67 9 November 2010 2.72 4.78 10 November 2010 2.65 4.75 11 November 2010 ND ND 12 November 2010 2.76 4.88 15 November 2010 2.92 5.07 16 November 2010 2.85 5.02 17 November 2010 2.89 5.06 18 November 2010 2.90 5.08 19 November 2010 2.88 5.05 22 November 2010 2.80 4.99 23 November 2010 2.77 4.96 24 November 2010 2.93 5.10 25 November 2010 ND ND 26 November 2010 2.87 5.05 29 November 2010 2.84 5.04 30 November 2010 2.81 5.03 1 December 2010 2.97 5.20 2 December 2010 3.01 5.23 3 December 2010 3.03 5.23 6 December 2010 2.95 5.14 7 December 2010 3.15 5.35 8 December 2010 3.26 5.42 9 December 2010 3.23 5.40 10 December 2010 3.32 5.45 13 December 2010 3.29 5.43 14 December 2010 3.49 5.58 15 December 2010 3.53 5.63 16 December 2010 3.47 5.60 17 December 2010 3.33 5.47 20 December 2010 3.36 5.49 21 December 2010 3.35 5.46 Date 10year Treasury note 10year Corporate BBB 22 December 2010 3.36 5.47 23 December 2010 3.41 5.51 24 December 2010 ND ND 27 December 2010 3.36 5.47 28 December 2010 3.50 5.58 29 December 2010 3.35 5.41 30 December 2010 3.38 5.43 31 December 2010 3.30 5.36 3 January 2011 3.36 5.39 4 January 2011 3.36 5.39 5 January 2011 3.50 5.50 6 January 2011 3.44 5.43 7 January 2011 3.34 5.36 10 January 2011 3.32 5.34 11 January 2011 3.37 5.36 12 January 2011 3.40 5.36 13 January 2011 3.34 5.33 14 January 2011 3.35 5.36 17 January 2011 ND ND 18 January 2011 3.39 5.38 19 January 2011 3.37 5.35 20 January 2011 3.47 5.46 21 January 2011 3.44 5.42 24 January 2011 3.43 5.40 Topright panel Near and Farterm Forward Spreads for BBB Bonds* Weekly Percentage points Period Nearterm Farterm 14 January 1998 0.98 1.13 21 January 1998 ND ND 28 January 1998 0.96 1.18 4 February 1998 1.02 1.21 11 February 1998 1.01 1.21 18 February 1998 ND ND 25 February 1998 0.97 1.19 4 March 1998 0.94 1.24 11 March 1998 0.94 1.23 18 March 1998 0.96 1.21 25 March 1998 0.95 1.22 1 April 1998 0.91 1.26 8 April 1998 0.93 1.21 15 April 1998 ND ND 22 April 1998 0.95 1.17 29 April 1998 0.93 1.18 6 May 1998 0.94 1.18 13 May 1998 0.95 1.20 Period Nearterm Farterm 20 May 1998 0.92 1.20 27 May 1998 ND ND 3 June 1998 0.96 1.28 10 June 1998 0.97 1.33 17 June 1998 1.00 1.34 24 June 1998 1.00 1.35 1 July 1998 0.98 1.37 8 July 1998 ND ND 15 July 1998 0.98 1.36 22 July 1998 0.99 1.35 29 July 1998 0.97 1.37 5 August 1998 1.02 1.50 12 August 1998 1.05 1.54 19 August 1998 1.07 1.57 26 August 1998 1.15 1.56 2 September 1998 1.49 1.90 9 September 1998 ND ND 16 September 1998 1.72 1.83 23 September 1998 1.73 1.75 30 September 1998 1.72 1.75 7 October 1998 1.84 1.72 14 October 1998 ND ND 21 October 1998 1.86 1.68 28 October 1998 1.84 1.80 4 November 1998 2.02 1.78 11 November 1998 ND ND 18 November 1998 1.92 1.97 25 November 1998 1.87 1.99 2 December 1998 ND ND 9 December 1998 1.71 1.79 16 December 1998 1.72 1.80 23 December 1998 1.77 1.70 30 December 1998 ND ND 6 January 1999 ND ND 13 January 1999 1.73 1.54 20 January 1999 ND ND 27 January 1999 1.71 1.56 3 February 1999 1.65 1.52 10 February 1999 1.62 1.47 17 February 1999 ND ND 24 February 1999 1.55 1.48 3 March 1999 1.49 1.56 10 March 1999 1.49 1.51 17 March 1999 1.47 1.50 24 March 1999 1.45 1.46 31 March 1999 1.43 1.45 7 April 1999 ND ND 14 April 1999 1.44 1.43 Period Nearterm Farterm 21 April 1999 1.43 1.42 28 April 1999 1.42 1.45 5 May 1999 1.38 1.48 12 May 1999 1.33 1.51 19 May 1999 1.32 1.49 26 May 1999 1.37 1.42 2 June 1999 ND ND 9 June 1999 1.41 1.47 16 June 1999 1.44 1.45 23 June 1999 1.45 1.42 30 June 1999 1.46 1.41 7 July 1999 ND ND 14 July 1999 ND ND 21 July 1999 ND ND 28 July 1999 1.48 1.43 4 August 1999 1.53 1.50 11 August 1999 1.61 1.53 18 August 1999 1.65 1.48 25 August 1999 1.66 1.41 1 September 1999 1.75 1.47 8 September 1999 ND ND 15 September 1999 1.82 1.38 22 September 1999 1.80 1.38 29 September 1999 1.81 1.40 6 October 1999 1.84 1.35 13 October 1999 ND ND 20 October 1999 1.83 1.29 27 October 1999 1.84 1.30 3 November 1999 1.84 1.32 10 November 1999 1.82 1.34 17 November 1999 ND ND 24 November 1999 1.84 1.38 1 December 1999 ND ND 8 December 1999 1.76 1.43 15 December 1999 1.76 1.44 22 December 1999 1.78 1.37 29 December 1999 ND ND 5 January 2000 1.72 1.42 12 January 2000 1.70 1.55 19 January 2000 ND ND 26 January 2000 1.66 1.74 2 February 2000 1.67 1.74 9 February 2000 1.64 1.79 16 February 2000 1.64 1.89 23 February 2000 ND ND 1 March 2000 1.73 1.97 8 March 2000 1.80 2.14 15 March 2000 1.81 2.03 Period Nearterm Farterm 22 March 2000 1.81 2.09 29 March 2000 1.76 2.08 5 April 2000 1.95 2.27 12 April 2000 2.09 2.35 19 April 2000 2.17 2.41 26 April 2000 ND ND 3 May 2000 2.20 2.67 10 May 2000 2.22 2.61 17 May 2000 2.31 2.70 24 May 2000 2.33 2.74 31 May 2000 ND ND 7 June 2000 2.35 2.84 14 June 2000 2.28 2.80 21 June 2000 2.29 2.56 28 June 2000 2.26 2.52 5 July 2000 ND ND 12 July 2000 ND ND 19 July 2000 2.36 2.43 26 July 2000 2.35 2.42 2 August 2000 2.30 2.50 9 August 2000 2.26 2.55 16 August 2000 2.25 2.54 23 August 2000 2.22 2.56 30 August 2000 2.22 2.58 6 September 2000 ND ND 13 September 2000 2.24 2.55 20 September 2000 2.22 2.43 27 September 2000 2.23 2.39 4 October 2000 2.23 2.32 11 October 2000 ND ND 18 October 2000 2.30 2.44 25 October 2000 2.35 2.55 1 November 2000 2.33 2.59 8 November 2000 2.39 2.51 15 November 2000 2.43 2.48 22 November 2000 2.42 2.51 29 November 2000 ND ND 6 December 2000 2.40 2.70 13 December 2000 2.47 2.68 20 December 2000 2.41 2.60 27 December 2000 ND ND 3 January 2001 ND ND 10 January 2001 2.33 2.57 17 January 2001 ND ND 24 January 2001 2.28 2.37 31 January 2001 2.30 2.27 7 February 2001 2.26 2.29 14 February 2001 2.29 2.28 Period Nearterm Farterm 21 February 2001 ND ND 28 February 2001 2.31 2.33 7 March 2001 2.33 2.32 14 March 2001 2.30 2.35 21 March 2001 2.30 2.33 28 March 2001 2.35 2.28 4 April 2001 2.34 2.18 11 April 2001 2.30 2.21 18 April 2001 ND ND 25 April 2001 2.26 2.17 2 May 2001 2.18 2.08 9 May 2001 2.15 2.03 16 May 2001 2.16 1.99 23 May 2001 2.14 1.95 30 May 2001 ND ND 6 June 2001 2.05 1.89 13 June 2001 1.99 1.91 20 June 2001 2.00 1.91 27 June 2001 2.01 1.98 4 July 2001 ND ND 11 July 2001 2.03 1.96 18 July 2001 2.01 2.02 25 July 2001 1.98 2.04 1 August 2001 1.99 1.95 8 August 2001 2.01 1.89 15 August 2001 2.04 1.88 22 August 2001 2.05 1.96 29 August 2001 2.02 1.99 5 September 2001 ND ND 12 September 2001 ND ND 19 September 2001 ND ND 26 September 2001 2.36 1.97 3 October 2001 2.37 2.03 10 October 2001 ND ND 17 October 2001 2.36 1.93 24 October 2001 2.32 1.95 31 October 2001 2.39 2.04 7 November 2001 2.50 2.10 14 November 2001 ND ND 21 November 2001 2.29 1.96 28 November 2001 ND ND 5 December 2001 2.17 1.74 12 December 2001 2.09 1.66 19 December 2001 2.09 1.72 26 December 2001 ND ND 2 January 2002 ND ND 9 January 2002 2.14 1.48 16 January 2002 2.13 1.56 Period Nearterm Farterm 23 January 2002 ND ND 30 January 2002 2.17 1.55 6 February 2002 2.45 1.63 13 February 2002 2.63 1.57 20 February 2002 ND ND 27 February 2002 2.52 1.67 6 March 2002 2.37 1.60 13 March 2002 2.28 1.54 20 March 2002 2.27 1.61 27 March 2002 2.23 1.65 3 April 2002 ND ND 10 April 2002 2.15 1.70 17 April 2002 2.15 1.71 24 April 2002 2.07 1.72 1 May 2002 1.92 1.89 8 May 2002 2.03 1.93 15 May 2002 2.05 1.85 22 May 2002 2.06 1.86 29 May 2002 ND ND 5 June 2002 2.07 1.63 12 June 2002 2.07 1.64 19 June 2002 2.11 1.74 26 June 2002 2.25 1.87 3 July 2002 2.31 2.05 10 July 2002 ND ND 17 July 2002 2.45 1.98 24 July 2002 2.57 2.09 31 July 2002 2.79 2.20 7 August 2002 2.97 2.05 14 August 2002 3.07 2.12 21 August 2002 3.02 2.09 28 August 2002 2.92 1.91 4 September 2002 ND ND 11 September 2002 3.01 2.03 18 September 2002 2.88 2.12 25 September 2002 3.08 2.12 2 October 2002 3.17 2.14 9 October 2002 3.33 2.20 16 October 2002 ND ND 23 October 2002 3.51 2.18 30 October 2002 3.41 2.11 6 November 2002 3.28 1.94 13 November 2002 ND ND 20 November 2002 2.98 1.85 27 November 2002 2.81 1.69 4 December 2002 ND ND 11 December 2002 2.78 1.66 18 December 2002 2.77 1.56 Period Nearterm Farterm 25 December 2002 ND ND 1 January 2003 ND ND 8 January 2003 2.64 1.45 15 January 2003 2.50 1.42 22 January 2003 ND ND 29 January 2003 2.70 1.55 5 February 2003 2.63 1.56 12 February 2003 2.59 1.59 19 February 2003 ND ND 26 February 2003 2.61 1.59 5 March 2003 2.53 1.61 12 March 2003 2.47 1.70 19 March 2003 2.41 1.69 26 March 2003 2.33 1.59 2 April 2003 2.23 1.50 9 April 2003 2.12 1.47 16 April 2003 2.13 1.46 23 April 2003 ND ND 30 April 2003 1.93 1.36 7 May 2003 1.82 1.33 14 May 2003 1.88 1.30 21 May 2003 1.98 1.40 28 May 2003 ND ND 4 June 2003 1.83 1.38 11 June 2003 1.76 1.40 18 June 2003 1.75 1.39 25 June 2003 1.71 1.35 2 July 2003 1.62 1.40 9 July 2003 ND ND 16 July 2003 1.54 1.26 23 July 2003 1.48 1.20 30 July 2003 1.40 1.11 6 August 2003 1.58 1.11 13 August 2003 1.63 1.14 20 August 2003 1.65 1.08 27 August 2003 1.58 1.07 3 September 2003 ND ND 10 September 2003 1.49 1.06 17 September 2003 1.46 1.03 24 September 2003 1.43 1.03 1 October 2003 1.42 1.08 8 October 2003 1.39 1.02 15 October 2003 ND ND 22 October 2003 1.33 0.90 29 October 2003 1.31 0.95 5 November 2003 1.30 0.96 12 November 2003 ND ND 19 November 2003 1.34 0.91 Period Nearterm Farterm 26 November 2003 1.32 0.94 3 December 2003 ND ND 10 December 2003 1.23 0.92 17 December 2003 1.25 0.93 24 December 2003 1.21 0.94 31 December 2003 ND ND 7 January 2004 ND ND 14 January 2004 1.17 0.85 21 January 2004 ND ND 28 January 2004 1.17 0.89 4 February 2004 1.17 0.93 11 February 2004 1.18 0.95 18 February 2004 ND ND 25 February 2004 1.18 0.96 3 March 2004 1.16 1.00 10 March 2004 1.16 1.03 17 March 2004 1.21 1.08 24 March 2004 1.19 1.12 31 March 2004 1.18 1.07 7 April 2004 1.14 0.98 14 April 2004 ND ND 21 April 2004 1.11 0.92 28 April 2004 1.07 0.96 5 May 2004 1.07 0.98 12 May 2004 1.13 1.01 19 May 2004 1.18 1.04 26 May 2004 1.19 1.03 2 June 2004 ND ND 9 June 2004 1.19 1.01 16 June 2004 ND ND 23 June 2004 1.18 1.06 30 June 2004 1.19 1.06 7 July 2004 ND ND 14 July 2004 1.22 1.09 21 July 2004 1.18 1.09 28 July 2004 1.15 1.08 4 August 2004 1.17 1.09 11 August 2004 1.22 1.11 18 August 2004 1.23 1.10 25 August 2004 1.24 1.07 1 September 2004 1.22 1.04 8 September 2004 ND ND 15 September 2004 1.20 0.99 22 September 2004 1.18 1.00 29 September 2004 1.14 1.03 6 October 2004 1.12 0.97 13 October 2004 ND ND 20 October 2004 1.13 0.95 Period Nearterm Farterm 27 October 2004 1.14 0.99 3 November 2004 1.10 0.94 10 November 2004 1.07 0.86 17 November 2004 ND ND 24 November 2004 0.98 0.87 1 December 2004 ND ND 8 December 2004 0.95 0.85 15 December 2004 0.94 0.85 22 December 2004 0.92 0.83 29 December 2004 ND ND 5 January 2005 0.91 0.83 12 January 2005 0.88 0.89 19 January 2005 ND ND 26 January 2005 0.87 0.96 2 February 2005 0.87 0.94 9 February 2005 0.85 0.93 16 February 2005 0.87 0.91 23 February 2005 ND ND 2 March 2005 0.79 0.89 9 March 2005 0.76 0.89 16 March 2005 0.75 0.89 23 March 2005 0.80 0.97 30 March 2005 ND ND 6 April 2005 0.92 1.08 13 April 2005 0.91 1.08 20 April 2005 1.00 1.14 27 April 2005 0.98 1.14 4 May 2005 1.00 1.20 11 May 2005 1.02 1.13 18 May 2005 1.09 1.20 25 May 2005 1.10 1.20 1 June 2005 ND ND 8 June 2005 1.03 1.17 15 June 2005 1.02 1.22 22 June 2005 1.01 1.25 29 June 2005 1.03 1.29 6 July 2005 ND ND 13 July 2005 1.00 1.28 20 July 2005 0.97 1.25 27 July 2005 0.93 1.24 3 August 2005 0.92 1.21 10 August 2005 0.92 1.23 17 August 2005 0.93 1.29 24 August 2005 0.92 1.27 31 August 2005 0.90 1.26 7 September 2005 ND ND 14 September 2005 0.99 1.31 21 September 2005 0.99 1.32 Period Nearterm Farterm 28 September 2005 1.01 1.34 5 October 2005 1.01 1.38 12 October 2005 ND ND 19 October 2005 1.02 1.40 26 October 2005 1.02 1.41 2 November 2005 1.06 1.42 9 November 2005 1.07 1.48 16 November 2005 ND ND 23 November 2005 1.11 1.42 30 November 2005 ND ND 7 December 2005 1.09 1.41 14 December 2005 1.10 1.43 21 December 2005 1.10 1.44 28 December 2005 ND ND 4 January 2006 ND ND 11 January 2006 1.13 1.52 18 January 2006 ND ND 25 January 2006 1.11 1.55 1 February 2006 1.09 1.51 8 February 2006 1.06 1.56 15 February 2006 1.06 1.53 22 February 2006 ND ND 1 March 2006 1.04 1.51 8 March 2006 1.05 1.50 15 March 2006 1.07 1.48 22 March 2006 1.07 1.49 29 March 2006 1.06 1.50 5 April 2006 1.07 1.46 12 April 2006 1.08 1.46 19 April 2006 ND ND 26 April 2006 1.07 1.42 3 May 2006 1.04 1.37 10 May 2006 1.03 1.37 17 May 2006 1.04 1.37 24 May 2006 1.08 1.43 31 May 2006 ND ND 7 June 2006 1.07 1.50 14 June 2006 1.10 1.57 21 June 2006 1.12 1.62 28 June 2006 1.12 1.65 5 July 2006 ND ND 12 July 2006 1.18 1.67 19 July 2006 1.19 1.70 26 July 2006 1.19 1.68 2 August 2006 1.18 1.66 9 August 2006 1.18 1.67 16 August 2006 1.19 1.65 23 August 2006 1.19 1.65 Period 30 August 2006 Nearterm Farterm 1.20 1.69 6 September 2006 ND ND 13 September 2006 1.18 1.68 20 September 2006 1.17 1.67 27 September 2006 1.20 1.71 4 October 2006 1.19 1.74 11 October 2006 ND ND 18 October 2006 1.18 1.67 25 October 2006 1.17 1.65 1 November 2006 1.15 1.67 8 November 2006 1.13 1.64 15 November 2006 1.12 1.61 22 November 2006 1.10 1.61 29 November 2006 ND ND 6 December 2006 1.09 1.70 13 December 2006 1.09 1.68 20 December 2006 1.09 1.63 27 December 2006 ND ND 3 January 2007 ND ND 10 January 2007 1.08 1.61 17 January 2007 ND ND 24 January 2007 1.03 1.59 31 January 2007 0.99 1.59 7 February 2007 0.97 1.57 14 February 2007 0.97 1.53 21 February 2007 ND ND 28 February 2007 0.98 1.51 7 March 2007 1.01 1.61 14 March 2007 1.03 1.61 21 March 2007 1.04 1.60 28 March 2007 1.03 1.61 4 April 2007 1.03 1.62 11 April 2007 ND ND 18 April 2007 1.02 1.57 25 April 2007 1.04 1.57 2 May 2007 1.06 1.57 9 May 2007 1.06 1.55 16 May 2007 1.03 1.53 23 May 2007 1.02 1.53 30 May 2007 ND ND 6 June 2007 1.04 1.53 13 June 2007 1.05 1.56 20 June 2007 1.05 1.52 27 June 2007 1.08 1.54 4 July 2007 ND ND 11 July 2007 1.13 1.55 18 July 2007 1.15 1.58 25 July 2007 1.21 1.66 Period Nearterm Farterm 1 August 2007 1.42 1.84 8 August 2007 1.47 1.79 15 August 2007 1.41 1.75 22 August 2007 1.39 1.67 29 August 2007 1.44 1.68 5 September 2007 ND ND 12 September 2007 1.61 1.72 19 September 2007 1.66 1.72 26 September 2007 1.63 1.58 3 October 2007 1.66 1.56 10 October 2007 ND ND 17 October 2007 1.65 ND 24 October 2007 1.66 1.51 31 October 2007 1.73 1.53 7 November 2007 1.78 1.53 14 November 2007 ND ND 21 November 2007 1.94 1.67 28 November 2007 ND ND 5 December 2007 2.13 1.75 12 December 2007 2.24 1.70 19 December 2007 2.27 1.60 26 December 2007 ND ND 2 January 2008 ND ND 9 January 2008 2.58 1.61 16 January 2008 2.64 1.72 23 January 2008 ND ND 30 January 2008 2.89 1.70 6 February 2008 2.77 1.80 13 February 2008 2.84 1.81 20 February 2008 ND ND 27 February 2008 3.07 1.81 5 March 2008 3.05 1.79 12 March 2008 3.13 1.80 19 March 2008 3.29 1.75 26 March 2008 ND ND 2 April 2008 3.48 1.70 9 April 2008 3.42 1.75 16 April 2008 3.40 1.78 23 April 2008 3.23 1.81 30 April 2008 3.05 1.81 7 May 2008 2.93 1.68 14 May 2008 2.82 1.69 21 May 2008 2.73 1.81 28 May 2008 ND ND 4 June 2008 2.83 1.78 11 June 2008 2.84 1.74 18 June 2008 2.94 1.87 25 June 2008 2.98 1.93 Period Nearterm Farterm 2 July 2008 3.20 1.97 9 July 2008 ND ND 16 July 2008 3.21 2.01 23 July 2008 3.32 2.08 30 July 2008 3.30 2.06 6 August 2008 3.39 2.09 13 August 2008 3.43 2.12 20 August 2008 3.54 2.12 27 August 2008 3.61 2.21 3 September 2008 ND ND 10 September 2008 3.76 2.25 17 September 2008 3.92 2.48 24 September 2008 4.05 2.57 1 October 2008 4.28 2.86 8 October 2008 4.84 3.29 15 October 2008 ND ND 22 October 2008 6.41 3.65 29 October 2008 6.81 3.65 5 November 2008 7.11 3.32 12 November 2008 ND ND 19 November 2008 7.21 3.58 26 November 2008 7.61 4.25 3 December 2008 ND ND 10 December 2008 7.94 4.50 17 December 2008 8.12 4.54 24 December 2008 7.90 4.74 31 December 2008 ND ND 7 January 2009 ND ND 14 January 2009 7.47 4.06 21 January 2009 ND ND 28 January 2009 7.10 3.97 4 February 2009 6.64 3.88 11 February 2009 6.37 3.85 18 February 2009 ND ND 25 February 2009 6.38 4.02 4 March 2009 6.46 4.17 11 March 2009 6.46 4.35 18 March 2009 6.49 4.57 25 March 2009 6.59 4.72 1 April 2009 6.66 4.61 8 April 2009 6.49 4.43 15 April 2009 ND ND 22 April 2009 6.11 4.03 29 April 2009 5.80 3.89 6 May 2009 5.39 3.50 13 May 2009 5.11 3.23 20 May 2009 5.10 3.31 27 May 2009 ND ND Period Nearterm Farterm 3 June 2009 4.60 2.85 10 June 2009 4.17 2.74 17 June 2009 3.93 2.62 24 June 2009 3.99 2.59 1 July 2009 3.98 2.76 8 July 2009 ND ND 15 July 2009 3.95 2.64 22 July 2009 3.75 2.39 29 July 2009 3.45 2.23 5 August 2009 3.12 2.06 12 August 2009 2.90 2.06 19 August 2009 3.06 2.07 26 August 2009 3.02 2.29 2 September 2009 3.05 2.25 9 September 2009 ND ND 16 September 2009 2.97 2.21 23 September 2009 2.81 2.18 30 September 2009 2.81 2.19 7 October 2009 2.86 2.22 14 October 2009 ND ND 21 October 2009 2.80 1.95 28 October 2009 2.73 1.91 4 November 2009 2.76 1.97 11 November 2009 ND ND 18 November 2009 2.80 1.85 25 November 2009 2.74 2.01 2 December 2009 ND ND 9 December 2009 2.79 1.68 16 December 2009 2.71 1.46 23 December 2009 2.56 1.37 30 December 2009 ND ND 6 January 2010 ND ND 13 January 2010 2.11 1.05 20 January 2010 ND ND 27 January 2010 2.14 1.31 3 February 2010 2.17 1.29 10 February 2010 2.23 1.33 17 February 2010 ND ND 24 February 2010 2.19 1.29 3 March 2010 2.15 1.24 10 March 2010 2.09 1.19 17 March 2010 2.02 1.24 24 March 2010 1.96 1.30 31 March 2010 1.91 1.25 7 April 2010 ND ND 14 April 2010 1.93 1.11 21 April 2010 1.89 1.08 28 April 2010 1.83 1.12 Period Nearterm Farterm 5 May 2010 1.85 1.16 12 May 2010 2.05 1.34 19 May 2010 2.01 1.41 26 May 2010 2.19 1.64 2 June 2010 ND ND 9 June 2010 2.39 1.73 16 June 2010 2.44 1.78 23 June 2010 2.40 1.73 30 June 2010 2.35 1.75 7 July 2010 ND ND 14 July 2010 2.44 1.71 21 July 2010 2.40 1.69 28 July 2010 2.19 1.57 4 August 2010 2.20 1.46 11 August 2010 2.01 1.70 18 August 2010 2.04 1.86 25 August 2010 2.08 1.91 1 September 2010 2.12 2.01 8 September 2010 ND ND 15 September 2010 2.12 1.89 22 September 2010 2.14 1.84 29 September 2010 2.13 1.89 6 October 2010 2.27 1.77 13 October 2010 ND ND 20 October 2010 2.34 1.82 27 October 2010 2.34 1.79 3 November 2010 2.38 1.66 10 November 2010 2.28 1.56 17 November 2010 ND ND 24 November 2010 2.24 1.75 1 December 2010 ND ND 8 December 2010 2.27 1.80 15 December 2010 2.18 1.72 22 December 2010 2.20 1.71 29 December 2010 ND ND 5 January 2011 2.12 1.30 12 January 2011 2.05 1.24 * Nearterm forward spreads between years two and three. Farterm forward spreads between years nine and ten. Return to text Middleleft panel S&P 500 Daily December 13, 2010 = 100 Date Index 4 January 2010 91.34 5 January 2010 91.62 6 January 2010 91.67 7 January 2010 92.04 Date Index 8 January 2010 92.30 11 January 2010 92.46 12 January 2010 91.60 13 January 2010 92.36 14 January 2010 92.58 15 January 2010 91.58 18 January 2010 ND 19 January 2010 92.73 20 January 2010 91.74 21 January 2010 90.01 22 January 2010 88.01 25 January 2010 88.42 26 January 2010 88.05 27 January 2010 88.48 28 January 2010 87.43 29 January 2010 86.57 1 February 2010 87.80 2 February 2010 88.94 3 February 2010 88.46 4 February 2010 85.70 5 February 2010 85.95 8 February 2010 85.19 9 February 2010 86.30 10 February 2010 86.11 11 February 2010 86.94 12 February 2010 86.70 15 February 2010 ND 16 February 2010 88.26 17 February 2010 88.64 18 February 2010 89.22 19 February 2010 89.42 22 February 2010 89.32 23 February 2010 88.24 24 February 2010 89.10 25 February 2010 88.91 26 February 2010 89.04 1 March 2010 89.94 2 March 2010 90.15 3 March 2010 90.19 4 March 2010 90.53 5 March 2010 91.80 8 March 2010 91.78 9 March 2010 91.94 10 March 2010 92.35 11 March 2010 92.73 12 March 2010 92.71 15 March 2010 92.75 16 March 2010 93.47 Date Index 17 March 2010 94.01 18 March 2010 93.98 19 March 2010 93.51 22 March 2010 93.98 23 March 2010 94.66 24 March 2010 94.14 25 March 2010 93.98 26 March 2010 94.04 29 March 2010 94.58 30 March 2010 94.58 31 March 2010 94.27 1 April 2010 94.97 2 April 2010 ND 5 April 2010 95.73 6 April 2010 95.89 7 April 2010 95.32 8 April 2010 95.65 9 April 2010 96.28 12 April 2010 96.45 13 April 2010 96.52 14 April 2010 97.60 15 April 2010 97.68 16 April 2010 96.10 19 April 2010 96.54 20 April 2010 97.32 21 April 2010 97.22 22 April 2010 97.44 23 April 2010 98.13 26 April 2010 97.71 27 April 2010 95.43 28 April 2010 96.04 29 April 2010 97.28 30 April 2010 95.67 3 May 2010 96.92 4 May 2010 94.61 5 May 2010 93.99 6 May 2010 90.95 7 May 2010 89.55 10 May 2010 93.49 11 May 2010 93.17 12 May 2010 94.45 13 May 2010 93.31 14 May 2010 91.55 17 May 2010 91.65 18 May 2010 90.35 19 May 2010 89.89 20 May 2010 86.39 21 May 2010 87.68 Date Index 24 May 2010 86.55 25 May 2010 86.58 26 May 2010 86.09 27 May 2010 88.92 28 May 2010 87.82 31 May 2010 ND 1 June 2010 86.32 2 June 2010 88.55 3 June 2010 88.90 4 June 2010 85.85 7 June 2010 84.68 8 June 2010 85.61 9 June 2010 85.10 10 June 2010 87.62 11 June 2010 88.00 14 June 2010 87.84 15 June 2010 89.90 16 June 2010 89.85 17 June 2010 89.97 18 June 2010 90.09 21 June 2010 89.74 22 June 2010 88.30 23 June 2010 88.04 24 June 2010 86.56 25 June 2010 86.80 28 June 2010 86.63 29 June 2010 83.94 30 June 2010 83.09 1 July 2010 82.82 2 July 2010 82.44 5 July 2010 ND 6 July 2010 82.88 7 July 2010 85.47 8 July 2010 86.28 9 July 2010 86.90 12 July 2010 86.96 13 July 2010 88.30 14 July 2010 88.29 15 July 2010 88.39 16 July 2010 85.85 19 July 2010 86.36 20 July 2010 87.35 21 July 2010 86.23 22 July 2010 88.17 23 July 2010 88.89 26 July 2010 89.89 27 July 2010 89.79 28 July 2010 89.17 Date Index 29 July 2010 88.80 30 July 2010 88.81 2 August 2010 90.76 3 August 2010 90.33 4 August 2010 90.87 5 August 2010 90.76 6 August 2010 90.42 9 August 2010 90.92 10 August 2010 90.37 11 August 2010 87.83 12 August 2010 87.36 13 August 2010 87.00 16 August 2010 87.01 17 August 2010 88.08 18 August 2010 88.21 19 August 2010 86.71 20 August 2010 86.39 23 August 2010 86.05 24 August 2010 84.80 25 August 2010 85.08 26 August 2010 84.42 27 August 2010 85.82 30 August 2010 84.56 31 August 2010 84.59 1 September 2010 87.09 2 September 2010 87.88 3 September 2010 89.04 6 September 2010 ND 7 September 2010 88.02 8 September 2010 88.59 9 September 2010 89.01 10 September 2010 89.45 13 September 2010 90.44 14 September 2010 90.38 15 September 2010 90.70 16 September 2010 90.66 17 September 2010 90.74 20 September 2010 92.12 21 September 2010 91.88 22 September 2010 91.44 23 September 2010 90.68 24 September 2010 92.60 27 September 2010 92.08 28 September 2010 92.52 29 September 2010 92.28 30 September 2010 92.00 1 October 2010 92.40 4 October 2010 91.66 Date Index 5 October 2010 93.57 6 October 2010 93.51 7 October 2010 93.36 8 October 2010 93.93 11 October 2010 93.94 12 October 2010 94.30 13 October 2010 94.97 14 October 2010 94.63 15 October 2010 94.82 18 October 2010 95.51 19 October 2010 93.99 20 October 2010 94.98 21 October 2010 95.15 22 October 2010 95.37 25 October 2010 95.58 26 October 2010 95.58 27 October 2010 95.32 28 October 2010 95.43 29 October 2010 95.39 1 November 2010 95.48 2 November 2010 96.22 3 November 2010 96.57 4 November 2010 98.44 5 November 2010 98.82 8 November 2010 98.61 9 November 2010 97.82 10 November 2010 98.25 11 November 2010 97.83 12 November 2010 96.67 15 November 2010 96.56 16 November 2010 94.99 17 November 2010 95.01 18 November 2010 96.47 19 November 2010 96.72 22 November 2010 96.56 23 November 2010 95.18 24 November 2010 96.61 25 November 2010 ND 26 November 2010 95.88 29 November 2010 95.75 30 November 2010 95.17 1 December 2010 97.23 2 December 2010 98.47 3 December 2010 98.73 6 December 2010 98.60 7 December 2010 98.65 8 December 2010 99.02 9 December 2010 99.40 Date Index 10 December 2010 100.00 13 December 2010 100.00 14 December 2010 100.09 15 December 2010 99.58 16 December 2010 100.19 17 December 2010 100.28 20 December 2010 100.53 21 December 2010 101.14 22 December 2010 101.48 23 December 2010 101.31 24 December 2010 ND 27 December 2010 101.38 28 December 2010 101.46 29 December 2010 101.56 30 December 2010 101.40 31 December 2010 101.38 3 January 2011 102.53 4 January 2011 102.40 5 January 2011 102.91 6 January 2011 102.69 7 January 2011 102.50 10 January 2011 102.36 11 January 2011 102.74 12 January 2011 103.67 13 January 2011 103.49 14 January 2011 104.25 17 January 2011 ND 18 January 2011 104.40 19 January 2011 103.34 20 January 2011 103.21 21 January 2011 103.46 24 January 2011 104.06 Middleright panel Equity Risk Premium Percent Period Expected tenyear real equity return Expected real yield on tenyear Treasury* January 1990 7.57 4.36 February 1990 8.00 4.62 March 1990 8.10 4.74 April 1990 7.91 4.66 May 1990 7.71 4.64 June 1990 7.58 4.37 July 1990 7.67 4.36 August 1990 8.38 4.62 September 1990 9.07 4.78 October 1990 9.59 4.64 November 1990 8.86 4.31 Expected tenyear real equity return Expected real yield on tenyear Treasury* December 1990 Period 8.47 4.03 January 1991 9.01 4.17 February 1991 7.60 3.95 March 1991 7.53 4.20 April 1991 7.16 4.11 May 1991 7.78 4.16 June 1991 7.65 4.36 July 1991 7.51 4.31 August 1991 7.34 3.98 September 1991 7.47 3.74 October 1991 7.45 3.67 November 1991 7.33 3.62 December 1991 7.59 3.33 January 1992 7.02 3.62 February 1992 7.60 3.86 March 1992 7.81 3.99 April 1992 7.73 3.75 May 1992 7.84 3.66 June 1992 8.28 3.54 July 1992 8.17 3.36 August 1992 8.10 3.14 September 1992 8.05 3.01 October 1992 8.38 3.30 November 1992 7.98 3.51 December 1992 7.85 3.42 January 1993 7.93 3.36 February 1993 8.00 3.02 March 1993 7.78 2.79 April 1993 7.59 2.56 May 1993 7.59 2.57 June 1993 7.75 2.42 July 1993 7.94 2.50 August 1993 7.82 2.42 September 1993 7.72 2.11 October 1993 7.76 2.06 November 1993 7.73 2.43 December 1993 7.81 2.46 January 1994 7.62 2.42 February 1994 7.73 2.67 March 1994 7.79 3.18 April 1994 8.23 3.60 May 1994 8.14 3.77 June 1994 8.00 3.69 July 1994 8.29 3.89 August 1994 8.08 3.82 September 1994 8.07 4.05 October 1994 8.16 4.30 November 1994 8.36 4.50 Expected tenyear real equity return Expected real yield on tenyear Treasury* December 1994 Period 8.64 4.39 January 1995 8.62 4.58 February 1995 8.43 4.25 March 1995 8.35 4.01 April 1995 8.12 3.81 May 1995 7.84 3.37 June 1995 7.64 2.94 July 1995 7.59 3.20 August 1995 7.54 3.41 September 1995 7.33 3.13 October 1995 7.43 3.14 November 1995 7.39 3.03 December 1995 7.07 2.83 January 1996 7.23 2.77 February 1996 6.55 2.92 March 1996 6.79 3.41 April 1996 6.76 3.67 May 1996 6.45 3.84 June 1996 6.55 3.98 July 1996 6.94 3.91 August 1996 6.53 3.67 September 1996 6.30 3.90 October 1996 6.07 3.60 November 1996 5.81 3.28 December 1996 5.92 3.36 January 1997 5.56 3.62 February 1997 5.14 3.48 March 1997 5.49 3.79 April 1997 5.98 4.13 May 1997 5.18 3.94 June 1997 4.59 3.74 July 1997 4.00 3.32 August 1997 4.29 3.42 September 1997 4.11 3.35 October 1997 4.29 3.53 November 1997 4.50 3.35 December 1997 4.36 3.25 January 1998 4.62 3.06 February 1998 4.03 3.13 March 1998 3.57 3.21 April 1998 3.40 3.30 May 1998 3.47 3.32 June 1998 3.59 3.17 July 1998 3.04 3.11 August 1998 3.67 2.97 September 1998 4.20 2.52 October 1998 4.49 2.33 November 1998 3.25 2.58 Expected tenyear real equity return Expected real yield on tenyear Treasury* December 1998 Period 3.08 2.44 January 1999 2.77 2.78 February 1999 3.09 3.05 March 1999 2.76 3.29 April 1999 2.58 3.00 May 1999 2.44 3.33 June 1999 2.66 3.69 July 1999 2.20 3.60 August 1999 2.67 3.79 September 1999 2.79 3.81 October 1999 3.10 4.01 November 1999 2.31 3.84 December 1999 2.28 4.07 January 2000 2.19 4.33 February 2000 2.81 4.21 March 2000 2.83 4.00 April 2000 2.57 3.76 May 2000 2.64 4.17 June 2000 2.35 3.83 July 2000 2.20 3.74 August 2000 2.24 3.56 September 2000 2.26 3.56 October 2000 3.24 3.45 November 2000 2.85 3.39 December 2000 2.89 2.96 January 2001 3.08 2.88 February 2001 3.26 2.85 March 2001 4.22 2.68 April 2001 3.51 2.89 May 2001 3.11 3.10 June 2001 3.33 3.01 July 2001 3.40 2.94 August 2001 3.56 2.74 September 2001 4.90 2.55 October 2001 4.02 2.31 November 2001 3.54 2.39 December 2001 3.53 2.85 January 2002 3.96 2.82 February 2002 4.19 2.74 March 2002 4.15 3.10 April 2002 4.45 2.99 May 2002 4.84 2.90 June 2002 5.57 2.66 July 2002 6.62 2.40 August 2002 6.39 2.04 September 2002 6.83 1.66 October 2002 6.75 1.80 November 2002 6.52 1.88 Expected tenyear real equity return Expected real yield on tenyear Treasury* December 2002 Period 6.41 1.86 January 2003 6.01 1.80 February 2003 6.69 1.64 March 2003 6.58 1.54 April 2003 6.57 1.66 May 2003 6.05 1.24 June 2003 5.44 1.01 July 2003 5.62 1.64 August 2003 5.78 2.14 September 2003 5.47 1.95 October 2003 5.44 1.95 November 2003 5.59 1.95 December 2003 5.37 1.91 January 2004 5.01 1.78 February 2004 4.96 1.72 March 2004 5.28 1.46 April 2004 5.37 2.00 May 2004 5.90 2.38 June 2004 5.63 2.38 July 2004 5.89 2.14 August 2004 6.09 1.93 September 2004 5.88 1.76 October 2004 6.00 1.74 November 2004 5.58 1.82 December 2004 5.47 1.84 January 2005 5.74 1.87 February 2005 5.59 1.80 March 2005 5.89 2.14 April 2005 6.00 1.92 May 2005 5.99 1.72 June 2005 5.90 1.57 July 2005 5.87 1.75 August 2005 6.06 1.84 September 2005 6.17 1.78 October 2005 6.54 2.06 November 2005 6.31 2.16 December 2005 5.99 2.07 January 2006 6.06 2.00 February 2006 6.13 2.16 March 2006 6.06 2.32 April 2006 6.06 2.57 May 2006 6.50 2.69 June 2006 6.94 2.68 July 2006 6.82 2.65 August 2006 6.66 2.44 September 2006 6.55 2.30 October 2006 6.26 2.30 November 2006 6.13 2.16 Expected tenyear real equity return Expected real yield on tenyear Treasury* December 2006 Period 6.10 2.13 January 2007 6.13 2.48 February 2007 6.07 2.45 March 2007 6.61 2.30 April 2007 6.08 2.37 May 2007 5.98 2.42 June 2007 6.14 2.77 July 2007 6.07 2.68 August 2007 7.06 2.40 September 2007 6.34 2.23 October 2007 6.30 2.23 November 2007 6.73 1.90 December 2007 6.75 1.87 January 2008 7.19 1.42 February 2008 7.35 1.45 March 2008 7.94 1.23 April 2008 7.65 1.39 May 2008 7.47 1.59 June 2008 8.12 1.81 July 2008 8.87 1.69 August 2008 8.44 1.56 September 2008 9.50 1.39 October 2008 11.51 1.76 November 2008 12.02 1.53 December 2008 10.44 0.43 January 2009 11.21 0.66 February 2009 11.11 0.99 March 2009 10.59 0.85 April 2009 9.88 0.75 May 2009 9.59 1.12 June 2009 9.60 1.55 July 2009 9.32 1.37 August 2009 8.69 1.38 September 2009 8.10 1.18 October 2009 8.21 1.37 November 2009 8.44 1.37 December 2009 8.42 1.52 January 2010 8.00 1.50 February 2010 8.79 1.46 March 2010 8.39 1.47 April 2010 8.22 1.54 May 2010 9.29 1.16 June 2010 9.38 0.95 July 2010 9.72 0.84 August 2010 9.90 0.49 September 2010 9.64 0.46 October 2010 9.31 0.44 November 2010 9.42 0.63 Expected tenyear real equity return Expected real yield on tenyear Treasury* December 2010 Period 9.02 1.19 24 January 2011 9.05 1.27 * Offtherun Treasury yield less Philadelphia Fed tenyear expected inflation. Return to table As shown in the chart, the region between the two series is shaded teal, except when the curves cross one another from about March 1999 through December 2000, where the region is shaded light gray. Source: Thomson Financial. Bottomleft panel Domestic Equity Mutual Fund Flows Threemonth moving average Period Percent of DPI January 2001 2.35 February 2001 1.82 March 2001 0.37 April 2001 0.14 May 2001 1.18 June 2001 2.52 July 2001 1.74 August 2001 0.57 September 2001 1.38 October 2001 1.22 November 2001 0.45 December 2001 1.31 January 2002 1.89 February 2002 1.58 March 2002 2.61 April 2002 2.36 May 2002 2.11 June 2002 0.20 July 2002 3.26 August 2002 3.42 September 2002 3.19 October 2002 1.12 November 2002 0.78 December 2002 0.35 January 2003 0.05 February 2003 0.87 March 2003 0.51 April 2003 0.18 May 2003 1.29 June 2003 2.10 July 2003 2.40 August 2003 2.69 September 2003 2.64 October 2003 2.61 November 2003 2.29 December 2003 1.94 January 2004 2.51 Period Percent of DPI February 2004 2.76 March 2004 2.77 April 2004 2.05 May 2004 1.15 June 2004 1.04 July 2004 0.59 August 2004 0.58 September 2004 0.51 October 2004 0.33 November 2004 0.96 December 2004 0.79 January 2005 0.76 February 2005 0.65 March 2005 0.66 April 2005 0.69 May 2005 0.48 June 2005 0.41 July 2005 0.54 August 2005 0.22 September 2005 October 2005 0.09 0.26 November 2005 0.22 December 2005 0.16 January 2006 0.62 February 2006 0.58 March 2006 1.32 April 2006 1.31 May 2006 0.69 June 2006 0.33 July 2006 0.82 August 2006 0.70 September 2006 0.41 October 2006 0.20 November 2006 0.06 December 2006 0.10 January 2007 0.17 February 2007 0.59 March 2007 0.76 April 2007 0.51 May 2007 0.39 June 2007 0.57 July 2007 0.77 August 2007 0.96 September 2007 0.95 October 2007 0.95 November 2007 0.84 December 2007 0.99 January 2008 2.14 Period Percent of DPI February 2008 1.44 March 2008 1.46 April 2008 0.04 May 2008 0.14 June 2008 0.34 July 2008 0.60 August 2008 0.87 September 2008 1.83 October 2008 2.85 November 2008 3.22 December 2008 2.51 January 2009 0.55 February 2009 0.64 March 2009 0.91 April 2009 0.82 May 2009 0.22 June 2009 1.07 July 2009 0.81 August 2009 0.22 September 2009 0.41 October 2009 1.05 November 2009 1.30 December 2009 1.21 January 2010 0.60 February 2010 0.47 March 2010 0.06 April 2010 0.03 May 2010 0.56 June 2010 0.90 July 2010 1.43 August 2010 1.28 September 2010 1.53 October 2010 1.35 November 2010 1.04 December 2010 0.98 Source: Investment Company Institute. Bottomright panel Repo Market Haircuts Weekly Percent Period Speculativegrade corporate bonds Investmentgrade corporate bonds 5 March 2008 17.38 7.00 12 March 2008 20.00 7.75 19 March 2008 21.13 7.00 26 March 2008 ND ND 2 April 2008 21.25 10.00 9 April 2008 21.25 10.00 Period Speculativegrade corporate bonds Investmentgrade corporate bonds 16 April 2008 21.25 10.00 23 April 2008 20.00 10.00 30 April 2008 20.00 10.00 7 May 2008 20.00 10.00 14 May 2008 20.00 10.00 21 May 2008 20.00 10.00 28 May 2008 20.00 10.00 4 June 2008 20.00 10.00 11 June 2008 20.00 10.00 18 June 2008 20.00 10.00 25 June 2008 20.00 10.00 2 July 2008 20.00 10.00 9 July 2008 20.00 10.00 16 July 2008 20.00 10.00 23 July 2008 22.50 10.00 30 July 2008 20.00 10.00 6 August 2008 20.00 10.00 13 August 2008 20.00 11.00 20 August 2008 20.00 11.00 27 August 2008 20.00 11.00 3 September 2008 20.00 11.00 10 September 2008 20.00 11.00 17 September 2008 25.00 15.00 24 September 2008 28.75 15.00 1 October 2008 33.75 15.00 8 October 2008 33.75 16.25 15 October 2008 37.50 16.25 22 October 2008 37.50 18.75 29 October 2008 37.50 18.75 5 November 2008 37.50 18.75 12 November 2008 37.50 18.75 19 November 2008 36.25 18.75 26 November 2008 36.25 20.00 3 December 2008 36.25 20.00 10 December 2008 36.25 20.00 17 December 2008 36.25 20.00 24 December 2008 36.25 20.00 31 December 2008 36.25 20.00 7 January 2009 36.25 20.00 14 January 2009 36.25 20.00 21 January 2009 36.25 20.00 28 January 2009 36.25 20.00 4 February 2009 36.25 20.00 11 February 2009 36.25 18.75 18 February 2009 36.25 18.75 25 February 2009 35.00 20.00 4 March 2009 35.00 20.00 11 March 2009 35.00 20.00 Speculativegrade corporate bonds Investmentgrade corporate bonds 18 March 2009 Period 35.00 22.50 25 March 2009 35.00 22.50 1 April 2009 35.00 22.50 8 April 2009 35.00 22.50 15 April 2009 35.00 20.00 22 April 2009 35.00 20.00 29 April 2009 35.00 20.00 6 May 2009 35.00 20.00 13 May 2009 35.00 20.00 20 May 2009 36.25 20.00 27 May 2009 36.25 20.00 3 June 2009 36.25 20.00 10 June 2009 36.25 20.00 17 June 2009 36.25 20.00 24 June 2009 36.25 20.00 1 July 2009 36.25 20.00 8 July 2009 36.25 20.00 15 July 2009 36.25 20.00 22 July 2009 36.25 20.00 29 July 2009 36.25 20.00 5 August 2009 36.25 20.00 12 August 2009 36.25 20.00 19 August 2009 36.25 20.00 26 August 2009 36.25 20.00 2 September 2009 35.00 20.00 9 September 2009 35.00 20.00 16 September 2009 35.00 20.00 23 September 2009 35.00 15.00 30 September 2009 35.00 15.00 7 October 2009 35.00 15.00 14 October 2009 35.00 15.00 21 October 2009 33.75 15.00 28 October 2009 33.75 15.00 4 November 2009 33.75 15.00 11 November 2009 33.75 15.00 18 November 2009 31.25 15.00 25 November 2009 31.25 15.00 2 December 2009 31.25 15.00 9 December 2009 27.50 13.50 16 December 2009 27.50 13.50 23 December 2009 27.50 13.50 30 December 2009 ND 13.50 6 January 2010 26.25 ND 13 January 2010 26.25 13.50 20 January 2010 26.25 12.50 27 January 2010 26.25 12.50 3 February 2010 25.00 12.50 10 February 2010 25.00 12.50 Speculativegrade corporate bonds Investmentgrade corporate bonds 17 February 2010 Period 25.00 12.50 24 February 2010 25.00 12.50 3 March 2010 25.00 12.50 10 March 2010 25.00 12.50 17 March 2010 25.00 12.50 24 March 2010 ND ND 31 March 2010 25.00 12.50 7 April 2010 25.00 12.50 14 April 2010 ND ND 21 April 2010 25.00 12.50 28 April 2010 ND ND 5 May 2010 25.00 12.50 12 May 2010 25.00 12.50 19 May 2010 25.00 12.50 26 May 2010 25.00 12.50 2 June 2010 25.00 12.50 9 June 2010 25.00 12.50 16 June 2010 25.00 12.50 23 June 2010 25.00 12.50 30 June 2010 ND ND 7 July 2010 ND ND 14 July 2010 ND ND 21 July 2010 25.00 12.50 28 July 2010 25.00 12.50 4 August 2010 25.00 12.50 11 August 2010 25.00 12.50 18 August 2010 25.00 12.50 25 August 2010 25.00 12.50 1 September 2010 25.00 12.50 8 September 2010 25.00 12.50 15 September 2010 25.00 12.50 22 September 2010 25.00 12.50 29 September 2010 ND ND 6 October 2010 22.50 12.00 13 October 2010 22.50 12.00 20 October 2010 20.00 11.00 27 October 2010 20.00 11.00 ND ND 3 November 2010 10 November 2010 20.00 11.00 17 November 2010 22.50 12.00 24 November 2010 20.00 11.00 1 December 2010 20.00 11.00 8 December 2010 20.00 11.00 15 December 2010 20.00 11.25 22 December 2010 18.75 10.00 29 December 2010 22.50 11.00 5 January 2011 22.50 11.00 12 January 2011 22.50 11.00 Note: Data are for onemonth median haircuts. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Exhibit 10 Financing Conditions Topleft panel ARated Corporate Bond Spreads by Sector* Basis Points Date Financial Nonfinancial 2 January 2007 99.95 96.32 3 January 2007 98.77 95.37 4 January 2007 98.75 95.25 5 January 2007 97.04 94.61 8 January 2007 97.84 95.23 9 January 2007 98.17 95.48 10 January 2007 97.08 94.41 11 January 2007 97.69 94.97 12 January 2007 97.81 95.07 15 January 2007 ND ND 16 January 2007 97.87 94.72 17 January 2007 97.58 94.42 18 January 2007 97.80 93.25 19 January 2007 96.71 92.57 22 January 2007 97.91 93.60 23 January 2007 96.96 92.84 24 January 2007 97.61 93.53 25 January 2007 98.14 93.72 26 January 2007 97.07 92.61 29 January 2007 97.18 93.05 30 January 2007 97.79 93.77 31 January 2007 97.72 93.72 1 February 2007 97.87 93.84 2 February 2007 97.48 93.57 5 February 2007 97.10 93.32 6 February 2007 97.69 93.50 7 February 2007 97.31 92.81 8 February 2007 96.92 92.52 9 February 2007 97.06 92.19 12 February 2007 96.04 91.54 13 February 2007 95.99 91.20 14 February 2007 97.09 91.34 15 February 2007 97.37 91.21 16 February 2007 96.45 90.85 19 February 2007 ND ND 20 February 2007 96.85 90.57 21 February 2007 96.80 90.19 22 February 2007 96.58 89.98 Date Financial Nonfinancial 23 February 2007 96.64 89.63 26 February 2007 97.21 89.77 27 February 2007 100.22 92.91 28 February 2007 99.64 91.18 1 March 2007 100.70 91.83 2 March 2007 101.29 91.97 5 March 2007 103.70 95.16 6 March 2007 102.65 94.14 7 March 2007 102.43 93.80 8 March 2007 102.06 93.31 9 March 2007 102.41 93.10 12 March 2007 102.66 93.16 13 March 2007 103.43 93.97 14 March 2007 103.23 94.03 15 March 2007 103.99 94.66 16 March 2007 104.83 95.19 19 March 2007 104.38 95.18 20 March 2007 107.05 95.61 21 March 2007 106.48 95.47 22 March 2007 105.72 95.20 23 March 2007 105.72 95.24 26 March 2007 105.65 95.12 27 March 2007 106.09 95.99 28 March 2007 106.77 96.51 29 March 2007 106.48 96.01 30 March 2007 106.71 96.30 2 April 2007 106.96 95.81 3 April 2007 106.82 95.66 4 April 2007 107.57 96.53 5 April 2007 107.32 96.19 6 April 2007 ND ND 9 April 2007 106.75 96.16 10 April 2007 106.19 95.21 11 April 2007 106.73 95.49 12 April 2007 106.60 95.07 13 April 2007 108.47 94.90 16 April 2007 109.34 94.84 17 April 2007 109.80 94.91 18 April 2007 109.49 94.54 19 April 2007 109.53 94.95 20 April 2007 108.85 94.36 23 April 2007 109.27 94.93 24 April 2007 109.43 95.57 25 April 2007 109.02 95.01 26 April 2007 108.85 95.01 27 April 2007 109.36 95.55 30 April 2007 110.57 96.07 1 May 2007 110.54 96.48 Date Financial Nonfinancial 2 May 2007 110.18 96.10 3 May 2007 110.01 95.95 4 May 2007 110.31 95.89 7 May 2007 110.45 96.79 8 May 2007 109.86 96.17 9 May 2007 110.37 96.73 10 May 2007 110.41 96.53 11 May 2007 109.79 96.32 14 May 2007 109.50 95.96 15 May 2007 109.77 96.01 16 May 2007 110.07 96.37 17 May 2007 109.89 96.28 18 May 2007 109.73 96.45 21 May 2007 109.71 96.84 22 May 2007 108.44 96.17 23 May 2007 109.02 96.19 24 May 2007 109.45 96.62 25 May 2007 109.15 96.36 28 May 2007 ND ND 29 May 2007 110.24 97.42 30 May 2007 109.58 96.97 31 May 2007 112.81 95.87 1 June 2007 113.21 96.00 4 June 2007 113.27 96.02 5 June 2007 113.03 95.29 6 June 2007 114.19 96.11 7 June 2007 115.15 97.07 8 June 2007 116.27 98.05 11 June 2007 116.15 98.18 12 June 2007 115.61 97.40 13 June 2007 117.47 98.33 14 June 2007 116.19 97.18 15 June 2007 116.91 98.09 18 June 2007 116.24 97.20 19 June 2007 116.68 98.22 20 June 2007 116.23 97.70 21 June 2007 118.56 98.93 22 June 2007 119.33 99.92 25 June 2007 118.73 99.79 26 June 2007 120.02 100.06 27 June 2007 119.82 99.78 28 June 2007 120.89 101.38 29 June 2007 121.05 102.20 2 July 2007 119.17 99.79 3 July 2007 119.32 99.28 4 July 2007 ND ND 5 July 2007 120.53 100.01 6 July 2007 120.34 100.62 Date Financial Nonfinancial 9 July 2007 120.37 100.54 10 July 2007 120.94 101.34 11 July 2007 121.21 100.81 12 July 2007 122.22 101.20 13 July 2007 123.14 101.78 16 July 2007 122.97 101.52 17 July 2007 125.07 102.25 18 July 2007 125.82 102.27 19 July 2007 126.50 102.36 20 July 2007 131.54 104.23 23 July 2007 131.75 104.73 24 July 2007 132.75 106.09 25 July 2007 132.66 106.84 26 July 2007 146.43 115.85 27 July 2007 148.86 119.05 30 July 2007 150.61 120.73 31 July 2007 150.97 121.91 1 August 2007 152.26 121.58 2 August 2007 151.64 119.81 3 August 2007 154.74 120.63 6 August 2007 161.82 123.03 7 August 2007 159.09 119.67 8 August 2007 159.36 119.25 9 August 2007 160.13 119.59 10 August 2007 162.23 118.12 13 August 2007 162.90 118.69 14 August 2007 163.91 119.70 15 August 2007 167.36 121.74 16 August 2007 170.23 122.51 17 August 2007 170.05 123.67 20 August 2007 172.04 125.18 21 August 2007 173.14 125.49 22 August 2007 173.40 126.42 23 August 2007 173.64 126.54 24 August 2007 175.15 125.79 27 August 2007 174.07 125.29 28 August 2007 174.71 125.98 29 August 2007 174.10 125.73 30 August 2007 176.70 128.21 31 August 2007 177.62 126.97 3 September 2007 ND ND 4 September 2007 177.81 127.37 5 September 2007 177.75 127.00 6 September 2007 178.62 128.83 7 September 2007 180.90 131.60 10 September 2007 186.18 134.03 11 September 2007 189.88 134.65 12 September 2007 190.95 136.69 Date Financial Nonfinancial 13 September 2007 192.77 137.12 14 September 2007 192.62 137.25 17 September 2007 192.13 136.79 18 September 2007 188.02 136.80 19 September 2007 188.41 135.83 20 September 2007 169.57 133.12 21 September 2007 176.00 132.02 24 September 2007 172.56 130.32 25 September 2007 170.09 130.42 26 September 2007 168.70 130.84 27 September 2007 167.25 130.50 28 September 2007 167.61 130.49 1 October 2007 168.44 129.76 2 October 2007 167.62 128.43 3 October 2007 166.91 127.05 4 October 2007 163.92 126.59 5 October 2007 163.38 124.34 8 October 2007 ND ND 9 October 2007 162.10 123.60 10 October 2007 158.32 122.28 11 October 2007 157.28 121.07 12 October 2007 156.47 119.11 15 October 2007 154.40 118.16 16 October 2007 155.58 119.96 17 October 2007 156.17 119.73 18 October 2007 158.30 120.31 19 October 2007 160.58 122.13 22 October 2007 163.82 122.07 23 October 2007 162.98 122.10 24 October 2007 163.23 121.04 25 October 2007 167.78 123.28 26 October 2007 167.59 122.66 29 October 2007 169.75 123.07 30 October 2007 169.26 122.18 31 October 2007 174.71 123.03 1 November 2007 178.62 124.93 2 November 2007 180.42 124.19 5 November 2007 188.26 124.97 6 November 2007 191.59 125.73 7 November 2007 195.84 127.85 8 November 2007 197.80 129.53 9 November 2007 201.81 130.84 12 November 2007 ND ND 13 November 2007 206.08 133.26 14 November 2007 205.09 133.04 15 November 2007 205.51 135.46 16 November 2007 207.18 136.34 19 November 2007 211.29 138.33 Date Financial Nonfinancial 20 November 2007 211.86 139.98 21 November 2007 213.63 139.05 22 November 2007 ND ND 23 November 2007 215.37 140.51 26 November 2007 220.51 142.79 27 November 2007 220.41 142.49 28 November 2007 221.23 143.88 29 November 2007 223.60 145.62 30 November 2007 224.44 145.14 3 December 2007 223.67 147.21 4 December 2007 226.07 149.87 5 December 2007 225.08 149.96 6 December 2007 225.91 152.27 7 December 2007 228.07 151.88 10 December 2007 222.80 153.16 11 December 2007 221.36 153.22 12 December 2007 223.33 154.43 13 December 2007 219.84 152.90 14 December 2007 222.30 154.27 17 December 2007 222.23 154.15 18 December 2007 220.46 152.72 19 December 2007 223.91 154.49 20 December 2007 221.93 151.29 21 December 2007 224.72 152.10 24 December 2007 223.87 151.28 25 December 2007 ND ND 26 December 2007 224.75 151.24 27 December 2007 224.42 151.00 28 December 2007 222.81 150.18 31 December 2007 224.68 149.82 1 January 2008 ND ND 2 January 2008 ND ND 3 January 2008 ND ND 4 January 2008 229.60 153.92 7 January 2008 230.83 154.21 8 January 2008 231.65 154.81 9 January 2008 237.02 158.02 10 January 2008 238.87 161.20 11 January 2008 241.70 162.03 14 January 2008 241.80 161.02 15 January 2008 250.87 162.09 16 January 2008 251.33 160.65 17 January 2008 255.74 166.14 18 January 2008 258.38 167.38 21 January 2008 ND ND 22 January 2008 263.73 167.90 23 January 2008 257.87 162.05 24 January 2008 260.04 167.03 Date Financial Nonfinancial 25 January 2008 257.88 168.22 28 January 2008 258.54 168.16 29 January 2008 257.64 166.99 30 January 2008 257.93 166.66 31 January 2008 257.55 164.46 1 February 2008 256.72 163.48 4 February 2008 258.98 163.61 5 February 2008 258.37 163.89 6 February 2008 258.50 162.77 7 February 2008 259.73 163.86 8 February 2008 262.85 165.64 11 February 2008 264.67 164.64 12 February 2008 267.78 167.01 13 February 2008 265.72 165.33 14 February 2008 265.62 165.43 15 February 2008 270.92 167.92 18 February 2008 ND ND 19 February 2008 270.66 166.33 20 February 2008 271.60 167.11 21 February 2008 272.80 169.16 22 February 2008 274.25 168.96 25 February 2008 273.71 168.55 26 February 2008 274.71 168.60 27 February 2008 278.40 170.17 28 February 2008 281.91 170.71 29 February 2008 294.47 170.66 3 March 2008 296.92 169.44 4 March 2008 298.14 165.44 5 March 2008 309.24 173.45 6 March 2008 319.51 178.01 7 March 2008 324.68 177.44 10 March 2008 333.41 177.98 11 March 2008 339.67 179.47 12 March 2008 342.14 180.65 13 March 2008 347.41 181.36 14 March 2008 346.54 186.40 17 March 2008 349.93 188.20 18 March 2008 348.78 191.15 19 March 2008 342.18 191.93 20 March 2008 346.32 192.63 21 March 2008 ND ND 24 March 2008 342.16 190.65 25 March 2008 337.91 190.56 26 March 2008 337.72 190.73 27 March 2008 338.03 190.79 28 March 2008 339.27 191.08 31 March 2008 336.79 188.59 1 April 2008 333.40 191.23 Date Financial Nonfinancial 2 April 2008 330.71 190.82 3 April 2008 327.03 191.75 4 April 2008 320.55 189.18 7 April 2008 318.69 188.35 8 April 2008 317.33 186.75 9 April 2008 318.63 184.23 10 April 2008 323.25 187.15 11 April 2008 322.98 186.36 14 April 2008 322.83 185.75 15 April 2008 320.01 185.57 16 April 2008 316.63 186.06 17 April 2008 317.16 184.32 18 April 2008 311.01 179.44 21 April 2008 305.55 179.02 22 April 2008 305.45 178.29 23 April 2008 302.43 175.40 24 April 2008 303.96 174.87 25 April 2008 302.20 171.95 28 April 2008 303.43 173.26 29 April 2008 303.23 171.36 30 April 2008 306.51 168.58 1 May 2008 303.21 165.82 2 May 2008 290.39 161.21 5 May 2008 295.62 160.88 6 May 2008 295.72 161.05 7 May 2008 296.87 162.93 8 May 2008 298.27 163.62 9 May 2008 298.00 162.01 12 May 2008 297.95 162.41 13 May 2008 299.62 164.33 14 May 2008 299.42 164.09 15 May 2008 300.48 164.63 16 May 2008 297.69 162.90 19 May 2008 298.95 164.15 20 May 2008 300.90 163.98 21 May 2008 302.28 166.48 22 May 2008 305.02 166.85 23 May 2008 306.17 165.82 26 May 2008 ND ND 27 May 2008 308.11 167.32 28 May 2008 306.25 165.90 29 May 2008 304.28 167.02 30 May 2008 301.77 165.77 2 June 2008 303.80 166.85 3 June 2008 304.03 164.19 4 June 2008 303.59 163.02 5 June 2008 302.68 163.20 6 June 2008 305.69 164.21 Date Financial Nonfinancial 9 June 2008 303.75 163.64 10 June 2008 308.68 165.92 11 June 2008 308.40 164.03 12 June 2008 309.75 166.93 13 June 2008 310.17 167.25 16 June 2008 311.94 167.65 17 June 2008 309.05 168.23 18 June 2008 311.71 169.01 19 June 2008 312.68 168.90 20 June 2008 317.64 170.21 23 June 2008 320.66 171.51 24 June 2008 327.77 175.96 25 June 2008 327.42 175.43 26 June 2008 335.96 178.40 27 June 2008 339.37 183.68 30 June 2008 343.83 182.71 1 July 2008 347.32 183.09 2 July 2008 351.34 181.43 3 July 2008 352.44 183.19 4 July 2008 ND ND 7 July 2008 350.66 181.50 8 July 2008 354.74 183.25 9 July 2008 359.32 185.56 10 July 2008 360.97 184.74 11 July 2008 371.31 187.56 14 July 2008 372.87 186.86 15 July 2008 382.66 187.98 16 July 2008 390.93 186.19 17 July 2008 389.65 188.73 18 July 2008 391.97 188.79 21 July 2008 391.35 189.49 22 July 2008 390.64 188.06 23 July 2008 388.51 189.84 24 July 2008 389.25 189.13 25 July 2008 386.39 188.02 28 July 2008 387.05 186.24 29 July 2008 388.71 186.12 30 July 2008 392.57 188.84 31 July 2008 393.01 190.27 1 August 2008 390.65 187.99 4 August 2008 391.76 189.94 5 August 2008 388.98 188.69 6 August 2008 390.34 190.65 7 August 2008 390.10 189.93 8 August 2008 388.54 190.11 11 August 2008 389.95 190.35 12 August 2008 392.47 190.25 13 August 2008 395.54 188.77 Date Financial Nonfinancial 14 August 2008 399.33 189.96 15 August 2008 401.10 190.71 18 August 2008 402.88 191.83 19 August 2008 410.04 192.44 20 August 2008 413.01 194.71 21 August 2008 416.26 194.70 22 August 2008 417.07 195.26 25 August 2008 420.41 196.81 26 August 2008 421.83 197.65 27 August 2008 422.91 198.14 28 August 2008 423.95 199.01 29 August 2008 420.62 195.12 1 September 2008 ND ND 2 September 2008 420.30 196.33 3 September 2008 422.16 197.12 4 September 2008 424.68 199.34 5 September 2008 424.53 199.38 8 September 2008 424.26 201.95 9 September 2008 428.84 201.83 10 September 2008 438.96 206.12 11 September 2008 469.36 208.21 12 September 2008 477.66 209.51 15 September 2008 503.23 221.51 16 September 2008 564.49 229.11 17 September 2008 595.11 231.83 18 September 2008 596.21 225.66 19 September 2008 520.76 230.48 22 September 2008 504.90 227.29 23 September 2008 528.14 228.72 24 September 2008 538.08 225.57 25 September 2008 554.17 239.50 26 September 2008 596.61 245.93 29 September 2008 591.02 260.74 30 September 2008 606.32 251.56 1 October 2008 605.52 259.87 2 October 2008 649.28 268.81 3 October 2008 643.73 274.89 6 October 2008 656.75 278.04 7 October 2008 658.10 289.59 8 October 2008 672.70 295.82 9 October 2008 677.51 298.49 10 October 2008 736.62 330.09 13 October 2008 ND ND 14 October 2008 616.15 324.08 15 October 2008 603.38 327.24 16 October 2008 627.03 339.69 17 October 2008 635.27 352.88 20 October 2008 641.38 353.15 Date Financial Nonfinancial 21 October 2008 634.88 348.76 22 October 2008 642.67 349.49 23 October 2008 633.33 343.13 24 October 2008 644.43 348.03 27 October 2008 646.47 350.80 28 October 2008 631.54 349.87 29 October 2008 626.86 348.15 30 October 2008 620.64 342.37 31 October 2008 605.80 331.65 3 November 2008 596.88 324.89 4 November 2008 589.69 321.37 5 November 2008 582.37 320.69 6 November 2008 587.45 319.22 7 November 2008 581.10 314.35 10 November 2008 578.34 314.94 11 November 2008 ND ND 12 November 2008 579.73 315.87 13 November 2008 577.63 314.96 14 November 2008 582.76 321.67 17 November 2008 593.18 326.47 18 November 2008 596.33 332.18 19 November 2008 614.60 335.55 20 November 2008 633.45 350.29 21 November 2008 655.69 354.60 24 November 2008 647.29 360.98 25 November 2008 648.36 360.30 26 November 2008 652.16 361.09 27 November 2008 ND ND 28 November 2008 655.60 360.27 1 December 2008 650.19 361.64 2 December 2008 674.29 364.87 3 December 2008 671.70 365.74 4 December 2008 676.49 368.38 5 December 2008 675.29 363.03 8 December 2008 662.18 360.63 9 December 2008 651.68 363.66 10 December 2008 656.58 362.60 11 December 2008 648.28 360.82 12 December 2008 647.64 355.83 15 December 2008 653.90 355.82 16 December 2008 626.51 351.13 17 December 2008 626.84 351.24 18 December 2008 601.18 349.70 19 December 2008 586.78 344.90 22 December 2008 581.12 342.33 23 December 2008 573.47 340.20 24 December 2008 569.96 336.31 25 December 2008 ND ND Date Financial Nonfinancial 26 December 2008 569.58 334.02 29 December 2008 563.65 329.73 30 December 2008 561.30 325.35 31 December 2008 516.19 318.99 1 January 2009 ND ND 2 January 2009 515.51 315.37 5 January 2009 519.48 314.00 6 January 2009 501.29 304.34 7 January 2009 494.93 300.55 8 January 2009 475.72 296.13 9 January 2009 473.02 292.49 12 January 2009 471.73 290.68 13 January 2009 478.57 291.83 14 January 2009 503.77 294.61 15 January 2009 498.32 293.63 16 January 2009 478.31 287.94 19 January 2009 ND ND 20 January 2009 479.35 282.57 21 January 2009 486.05 280.34 22 January 2009 481.44 276.59 23 January 2009 481.80 274.09 26 January 2009 476.31 267.33 27 January 2009 472.05 260.12 28 January 2009 460.32 259.23 29 January 2009 470.53 258.51 30 January 2009 471.98 256.37 2 February 2009 478.48 254.34 3 February 2009 487.24 254.38 4 February 2009 486.54 252.79 5 February 2009 484.61 248.53 6 February 2009 477.53 243.86 9 February 2009 474.39 244.24 10 February 2009 464.53 242.92 11 February 2009 458.52 242.03 12 February 2009 459.70 242.74 13 February 2009 463.88 244.46 16 February 2009 ND ND 17 February 2009 489.07 251.86 18 February 2009 497.48 252.65 19 February 2009 505.43 254.82 20 February 2009 542.55 255.62 23 February 2009 547.17 259.89 24 February 2009 543.20 260.20 25 February 2009 539.62 261.67 26 February 2009 536.46 261.65 27 February 2009 527.97 262.24 2 March 2009 534.72 264.24 3 March 2009 553.90 267.62 Date Financial Nonfinancial 4 March 2009 561.75 264.84 5 March 2009 575.60 264.38 6 March 2009 591.64 266.60 9 March 2009 598.75 269.17 10 March 2009 600.72 269.40 11 March 2009 593.00 269.42 12 March 2009 598.68 273.92 13 March 2009 593.28 274.71 16 March 2009 583.48 273.73 17 March 2009 571.23 273.64 18 March 2009 578.66 278.09 19 March 2009 580.16 285.76 20 March 2009 575.93 287.23 23 March 2009 575.66 291.42 24 March 2009 574.70 293.97 25 March 2009 576.31 297.70 26 March 2009 582.12 297.83 27 March 2009 582.82 296.58 30 March 2009 591.14 297.83 31 March 2009 601.59 296.25 1 April 2009 607.20 297.09 2 April 2009 598.58 294.73 3 April 2009 608.75 294.60 6 April 2009 592.26 290.68 7 April 2009 590.29 286.69 8 April 2009 584.06 284.13 9 April 2009 561.83 278.92 10 April 2009 ND ND 13 April 2009 558.65 276.48 14 April 2009 556.55 274.55 15 April 2009 556.38 269.21 16 April 2009 548.12 266.89 17 April 2009 537.55 259.85 20 April 2009 534.25 258.13 21 April 2009 535.74 257.44 22 April 2009 537.57 257.06 23 April 2009 535.06 255.55 24 April 2009 534.17 253.01 27 April 2009 529.77 252.34 28 April 2009 532.59 248.01 29 April 2009 531.73 242.63 30 April 2009 523.26 238.33 1 May 2009 520.17 234.63 4 May 2009 520.04 234.90 5 May 2009 509.66 229.98 6 May 2009 500.83 227.03 7 May 2009 489.61 224.42 8 May 2009 475.90 221.36 Date Financial Nonfinancial 11 May 2009 476.04 221.93 12 May 2009 471.75 222.38 13 May 2009 466.60 226.94 14 May 2009 470.14 229.26 15 May 2009 469.10 227.48 18 May 2009 463.07 227.33 19 May 2009 458.65 223.18 20 May 2009 449.22 223.67 21 May 2009 444.36 221.09 22 May 2009 445.49 219.63 25 May 2009 ND ND 26 May 2009 433.19 212.50 27 May 2009 420.65 206.30 28 May 2009 413.70 202.82 29 May 2009 405.83 194.90 1 June 2009 394.24 181.66 2 June 2009 381.73 179.25 3 June 2009 377.07 176.86 4 June 2009 375.20 167.29 5 June 2009 376.45 170.99 8 June 2009 371.26 168.94 9 June 2009 371.45 162.24 10 June 2009 365.58 162.92 11 June 2009 364.21 160.27 12 June 2009 362.15 159.27 15 June 2009 360.03 155.51 16 June 2009 366.48 157.15 17 June 2009 361.55 154.25 18 June 2009 360.59 156.02 19 June 2009 358.70 155.78 22 June 2009 362.25 153.05 23 June 2009 361.89 155.40 24 June 2009 358.74 154.95 25 June 2009 360.69 158.24 26 June 2009 362.19 158.02 29 June 2009 360.74 158.62 30 June 2009 356.85 161.28 1 July 2009 354.42 160.89 2 July 2009 354.33 160.49 3 July 2009 ND ND 6 July 2009 356.49 161.48 7 July 2009 355.23 161.19 8 July 2009 352.87 159.78 9 July 2009 352.45 160.45 10 July 2009 352.62 159.96 13 July 2009 351.10 157.89 14 July 2009 346.89 154.34 15 July 2009 343.70 152.61 Date Financial Nonfinancial 16 July 2009 336.40 150.83 17 July 2009 322.50 148.86 20 July 2009 314.23 146.09 21 July 2009 309.58 141.03 22 July 2009 313.73 140.37 23 July 2009 311.25 139.86 24 July 2009 308.20 136.32 27 July 2009 306.60 133.59 28 July 2009 305.09 131.92 29 July 2009 301.88 128.72 30 July 2009 294.35 124.99 31 July 2009 292.15 121.41 3 August 2009 288.21 120.19 4 August 2009 282.79 118.66 5 August 2009 276.37 115.90 6 August 2009 270.08 112.98 7 August 2009 269.56 113.36 10 August 2009 267.90 114.27 11 August 2009 271.58 117.03 12 August 2009 271.51 115.05 13 August 2009 272.37 116.48 14 August 2009 275.84 117.72 17 August 2009 283.70 121.98 18 August 2009 287.47 124.35 19 August 2009 285.60 123.84 20 August 2009 286.17 125.13 21 August 2009 281.64 122.53 24 August 2009 279.84 123.20 25 August 2009 275.74 122.13 26 August 2009 275.52 121.94 27 August 2009 272.84 122.05 28 August 2009 271.78 121.27 31 August 2009 276.07 123.72 1 September 2009 277.64 124.86 2 September 2009 277.79 125.39 3 September 2009 276.94 125.00 4 September 2009 272.55 124.71 7 September 2009 ND ND 8 September 2009 269.42 124.76 9 September 2009 266.98 125.05 10 September 2009 260.81 123.57 11 September 2009 256.74 124.65 14 September 2009 254.76 123.49 15 September 2009 248.11 122.45 16 September 2009 244.77 122.27 17 September 2009 247.22 120.35 18 September 2009 244.12 119.75 21 September 2009 246.14 121.30 Date Financial Nonfinancial 22 September 2009 243.76 119.43 23 September 2009 242.39 117.14 24 September 2009 244.65 118.02 25 September 2009 246.71 119.02 28 September 2009 249.31 121.29 29 September 2009 253.27 123.05 30 September 2009 256.22 127.49 1 October 2009 257.71 127.84 2 October 2009 260.83 129.77 5 October 2009 257.42 131.69 6 October 2009 252.59 129.87 7 October 2009 256.14 130.50 8 October 2009 257.10 131.55 9 October 2009 254.27 129.68 12 October 2009 ND ND 13 October 2009 251.57 128.04 14 October 2009 247.64 128.00 15 October 2009 250.14 128.84 16 October 2009 251.91 129.46 19 October 2009 249.37 128.23 20 October 2009 245.50 126.96 21 October 2009 243.71 127.17 22 October 2009 242.27 126.38 23 October 2009 238.42 124.27 26 October 2009 234.74 124.18 27 October 2009 232.34 124.04 28 October 2009 233.95 123.76 29 October 2009 234.87 124.16 30 October 2009 232.73 124.34 2 November 2009 234.53 125.10 3 November 2009 235.26 124.37 4 November 2009 236.05 125.44 5 November 2009 232.22 123.77 6 November 2009 228.89 122.92 9 November 2009 227.54 123.24 10 November 2009 226.91 122.55 11 November 2009 ND ND 12 November 2009 228.10 121.85 13 November 2009 229.61 122.34 16 November 2009 229.46 122.32 17 November 2009 227.22 121.90 18 November 2009 231.27 123.15 19 November 2009 233.36 122.99 20 November 2009 234.12 122.54 23 November 2009 234.43 122.86 24 November 2009 238.02 124.13 25 November 2009 239.53 125.94 26 November 2009 ND ND Date Financial Nonfinancial 27 November 2009 245.68 126.76 30 November 2009 248.56 126.74 1 December 2009 246.92 127.49 2 December 2009 246.69 126.79 3 December 2009 236.77 123.67 4 December 2009 235.59 123.99 7 December 2009 234.77 123.58 8 December 2009 231.40 121.97 9 December 2009 230.81 120.99 10 December 2009 226.78 121.49 11 December 2009 221.06 118.69 14 December 2009 215.72 117.92 15 December 2009 216.25 118.97 16 December 2009 217.90 117.36 17 December 2009 219.21 115.48 18 December 2009 217.10 113.85 21 December 2009 214.88 112.82 22 December 2009 213.99 111.31 23 December 2009 212.78 109.35 24 December 2009 209.52 109.57 25 December 2009 ND ND 28 December 2009 209.99 110.10 29 December 2009 208.68 108.13 30 December 2009 206.51 106.27 31 December 2009 206.44 107.69 1 January 2010 ND ND 4 January 2010 200.25 106.48 5 January 2010 193.78 103.66 6 January 2010 191.66 101.02 7 January 2010 193.88 101.79 8 January 2010 193.35 102.02 11 January 2010 189.87 100.99 12 January 2010 192.96 102.58 13 January 2010 192.28 102.92 14 January 2010 194.16 102.97 15 January 2010 196.71 102.86 18 January 2010 ND ND 19 January 2010 197.76 104.47 20 January 2010 199.10 106.54 21 January 2010 201.89 107.78 22 January 2010 205.72 109.86 25 January 2010 207.93 110.76 26 January 2010 209.02 112.39 27 January 2010 210.75 112.24 28 January 2010 212.61 112.16 29 January 2010 210.63 111.49 1 February 2010 210.27 113.75 2 February 2010 208.95 112.99 Date Financial Nonfinancial 3 February 2010 210.16 114.36 4 February 2010 216.81 117.73 5 February 2010 219.29 116.80 8 February 2010 222.92 120.35 9 February 2010 225.50 119.30 10 February 2010 227.42 119.26 11 February 2010 231.01 120.20 12 February 2010 233.99 120.61 15 February 2010 ND ND 16 February 2010 235.03 120.55 17 February 2010 235.13 121.26 18 February 2010 228.78 119.62 19 February 2010 225.65 117.20 22 February 2010 226.22 116.39 23 February 2010 226.76 115.73 24 February 2010 226.12 114.28 25 February 2010 228.52 114.60 26 February 2010 225.53 112.18 1 March 2010 225.65 115.06 2 March 2010 224.24 113.09 3 March 2010 224.83 113.63 4 March 2010 225.30 114.64 5 March 2010 221.70 113.28 8 March 2010 221.28 112.06 9 March 2010 221.02 111.90 10 March 2010 218.96 111.72 11 March 2010 217.63 111.04 12 March 2010 215.79 111.96 15 March 2010 216.12 111.15 16 March 2010 212.52 109.87 17 March 2010 210.13 110.72 18 March 2010 209.00 109.81 19 March 2010 209.02 109.25 22 March 2010 209.72 110.18 23 March 2010 209.84 110.05 24 March 2010 208.91 110.55 25 March 2010 205.97 109.03 26 March 2010 205.39 108.20 29 March 2010 204.28 107.54 30 March 2010 203.07 107.56 31 March 2010 200.65 106.82 1 April 2010 198.17 105.48 2 April 2010 ND ND 5 April 2010 196.20 105.55 6 April 2010 196.98 106.54 7 April 2010 195.86 105.65 8 April 2010 198.01 105.50 9 April 2010 197.07 105.42 Date Financial Nonfinancial 12 April 2010 195.78 105.42 13 April 2010 192.65 103.79 14 April 2010 189.04 103.66 15 April 2010 188.36 104.22 16 April 2010 194.06 103.11 19 April 2010 197.35 103.28 20 April 2010 194.94 102.56 21 April 2010 193.41 101.64 22 April 2010 198.85 100.56 23 April 2010 200.82 101.23 26 April 2010 207.74 101.23 27 April 2010 211.05 100.99 28 April 2010 210.39 102.41 29 April 2010 204.73 100.92 30 April 2010 209.75 100.35 3 May 2010 211.41 102.10 4 May 2010 217.73 102.81 5 May 2010 221.16 102.10 6 May 2010 245.28 107.00 7 May 2010 254.12 115.11 10 May 2010 238.66 112.09 11 May 2010 243.30 112.41 12 May 2010 241.93 110.76 13 May 2010 242.40 110.89 14 May 2010 247.42 110.26 17 May 2010 247.49 109.33 18 May 2010 251.38 109.50 19 May 2010 258.41 112.85 20 May 2010 268.41 118.53 21 May 2010 266.82 118.22 24 May 2010 268.42 119.09 25 May 2010 279.37 122.11 26 May 2010 274.60 126.48 27 May 2010 271.40 125.18 28 May 2010 270.40 123.93 31 May 2010 ND ND 1 June 2010 271.59 125.19 2 June 2010 270.60 124.98 3 June 2010 270.07 125.17 4 June 2010 272.81 124.61 7 June 2010 276.39 127.37 8 June 2010 277.92 126.51 9 June 2010 278.69 127.31 10 June 2010 283.90 127.58 11 June 2010 283.35 126.70 14 June 2010 282.20 127.56 15 June 2010 277.57 125.79 16 June 2010 279.18 128.21 Date Financial Nonfinancial 17 June 2010 273.83 125.89 18 June 2010 273.05 125.87 21 June 2010 269.49 124.35 22 June 2010 271.42 ND 23 June 2010 273.63 126.30 24 June 2010 275.89 124.83 25 June 2010 276.34 125.48 28 June 2010 276.12 125.36 29 June 2010 279.92 126.31 30 June 2010 275.49 124.74 1 July 2010 275.06 123.80 2 July 2010 273.30 124.24 5 July 2010 ND ND 6 July 2010 270.56 123.73 7 July 2010 269.03 123.34 8 July 2010 266.36 124.33 9 July 2010 263.53 124.06 12 July 2010 259.34 122.93 13 July 2010 252.92 122.76 14 July 2010 252.08 122.81 15 July 2010 251.44 122.53 16 July 2010 249.97 122.50 19 July 2010 250.50 122.12 20 July 2010 250.42 120.27 21 July 2010 252.35 123.05 22 July 2010 251.24 120.61 23 July 2010 250.05 119.82 26 July 2010 247.41 117.82 27 July 2010 241.44 115.48 28 July 2010 242.94 115.48 29 July 2010 243.82 114.58 30 July 2010 245.92 114.77 2 August 2010 243.95 115.01 3 August 2010 243.44 116.61 4 August 2010 241.90 115.31 5 August 2010 244.57 116.91 6 August 2010 246.57 116.46 9 August 2010 247.45 116.38 10 August 2010 254.51 120.01 11 August 2010 254.56 119.82 12 August 2010 256.91 120.92 13 August 2010 255.47 121.07 16 August 2010 254.82 120.80 17 August 2010 253.79 121.60 18 August 2010 254.00 119.85 19 August 2010 254.34 119.38 20 August 2010 255.51 118.43 23 August 2010 257.28 120.48 Date Financial Nonfinancial 24 August 2010 258.40 119.77 25 August 2010 259.55 119.29 26 August 2010 260.77 120.02 27 August 2010 261.15 121.07 30 August 2010 263.61 121.88 31 August 2010 267.41 124.07 1 September 2010 263.99 122.75 2 September 2010 263.22 122.36 3 September 2010 257.04 118.45 6 September 2010 ND ND 7 September 2010 258.44 120.77 8 September 2010 256.77 120.37 9 September 2010 256.79 121.10 10 September 2010 252.93 119.18 13 September 2010 250.17 119.19 14 September 2010 249.49 117.59 15 September 2010 251.57 117.99 16 September 2010 249.90 118.22 17 September 2010 249.68 117.30 20 September 2010 249.08 117.63 21 September 2010 248.27 116.50 22 September 2010 252.27 118.14 23 September 2010 253.61 118.12 24 September 2010 252.73 117.45 27 September 2010 252.22 117.71 28 September 2010 252.64 118.66 29 September 2010 252.90 119.94 30 September 2010 251.80 119.29 1 October 2010 249.85 119.29 4 October 2010 249.69 119.52 5 October 2010 246.26 118.98 6 October 2010 244.97 119.27 7 October 2010 243.48 118.82 8 October 2010 241.69 117.93 11 October 2010 ND ND 12 October 2010 245.25 118.24 13 October 2010 245.49 117.47 14 October 2010 255.05 118.09 15 October 2010 258.01 119.48 18 October 2010 256.73 117.63 19 October 2010 255.95 119.25 20 October 2010 257.14 118.07 21 October 2010 254.11 116.49 22 October 2010 253.06 117.73 25 October 2010 248.73 116.74 26 October 2010 245.45 115.84 27 October 2010 242.79 114.09 28 October 2010 242.76 116.19 Date Financial Nonfinancial 29 October 2010 244.55 116.94 1 November 2010 243.50 117.75 2 November 2010 242.64 117.41 3 November 2010 244.12 118.40 4 November 2010 244.30 119.60 5 November 2010 242.92 120.12 8 November 2010 242.65 120.72 9 November 2010 238.81 118.42 10 November 2010 241.10 118.89 11 November 2010 ND ND 12 November 2010 245.33 118.70 15 November 2010 244.21 119.26 16 November 2010 248.22 119.03 17 November 2010 242.26 116.49 18 November 2010 242.54 117.33 19 November 2010 243.56 117.24 22 November 2010 245.30 118.13 23 November 2010 248.54 118.27 24 November 2010 247.37 117.09 25 November 2010 ND ND 26 November 2010 247.34 117.05 29 November 2010 251.35 116.76 30 November 2010 255.16 117.53 1 December 2010 253.45 117.85 2 December 2010 250.48 118.04 3 December 2010 246.97 117.30 6 December 2010 246.28 116.79 7 December 2010 241.56 117.30 8 December 2010 235.11 112.17 9 December 2010 232.49 111.05 10 December 2010 227.97 108.79 13 December 2010 227.76 108.59 14 December 2010 223.98 107.26 15 December 2010 224.32 108.36 16 December 2010 227.13 111.52 17 December 2010 222.48 108.43 20 December 2010 220.97 109.28 21 December 2010 218.70 108.12 22 December 2010 217.64 107.79 23 December 2010 216.55 106.74 24 December 2010 ND ND 27 December 2010 217.39 107.74 28 December 2010 215.67 107.02 29 December 2010 215.38 107.54 30 December 2010 213.31 108.64 31 December 2010 213.53 107.83 3 January 2011 207.15 106.95 4 January 2011 204.13 106.81 Date Financial Nonfinancial 5 January 2011 204.22 104.88 6 January 2011 205.99 105.03 7 January 2011 211.78 105.43 10 January 2011 213.74 106.72 11 January 2011 209.58 104.47 12 January 2011 208.71 105.66 13 January 2011 205.18 104.55 14 January 2011 207.73 105.88 17 January 2011 ND ND 18 January 2011 206.76 105.71 19 January 2011 204.79 104.80 20 January 2011 207.64 106.13 21 January 2011 203.38 104.82 24 January 2011 202.93 105.01 Note: Tenyear maturity. Estimated from curve fit to Merrill Lynch bond yields. Treasury yields from smoothed yield curve estiamted from offtherun securities. Topright panel Composite Index of Changes in Bank Credit Standards Period Net percent tightening 2000:Q1 3.92 2000:Q2 7.12 2000:Q3 20.94 2000:Q4 32.74 2001:Q1 42.40 2001:Q2 31.05 2001:Q3 25.71 2001:Q4 42.15 2002:Q1 31.33 2002:Q2 16.26 2002:Q3 18.20 2002:Q4 16.73 2003:Q1 15.85 2003:Q2 9.12 2003:Q3 0.66 2003:Q4 3.69 2004:Q1 11.44 2004:Q2 14.40 2004:Q3 16.53 2004:Q4 15.74 2005:Q1 19.94 2005:Q2 19.90 2005:Q3 12.21 2005:Q4 12.17 2006:Q1 6.23 2006:Q2 16.77 2006:Q3 20.07 2006:Q4 0.48 Period Net percent tightening 2007:Q1 8.44 2007:Q2 5.35 2007:Q3 22.96 2007:Q4 57.02 2008:Q1 66.84 2008:Q2 78.93 2008:Q3 82.60 2008:Q4 86.99 2009:Q1 76.03 2009:Q2 52.19 2009:Q3 36.66 2009:Q4 31.75 2010:Q1 1.16 2010:Q2 12.65 2010:Q3 11.68 2010:Q4 4.04 2011:Q1 10.75 Middleleft panel Bank Spreads of Loan Rates Over Costs Net percent increasing Period Spreads for large and mediumsized firms Spreads for small firms 1990:Q2 12.00 7.20 1990:Q3 25.85 17.20 1990:Q4 51.80 33.90 1991:Q1 59.00 37.50 1991:Q2 45.50 25.40 1991:Q3 31.25 14.00 1991:Q4 31.50 12.00 1992:Q1 11.35 14.00 1992:Q2 11.65 7.10 1992:Q3 0.00 5.20 1992:Q4 3.60 7.10 1993:Q1 0.90 0.00 1993:Q2 23.65 10.70 1993:Q3 39.35 16.90 1993:Q4 55.90 31.00 1994:Q1 46.55 19.30 1994:Q2 58.30 26.80 1994:Q3 52.20 21.10 1994:Q4 46.10 24.50 1995:Q1 44.45 28.10 1995:Q2 52.10 29.30 1995:Q3 45.70 19.30 1995:Q4 33.70 12.20 1996:Q1 30.65 7.00 1996:Q2 36.10 17.40 1996:Q3 28.75 5.60 Period Spreads for large and mediumsized firms Spreads for small firms 1996:Q4 34.55 27.20 1997:Q1 33.25 11.10 1997:Q2 32.45 12.30 1997:Q3 38.50 25.50 1997:Q4 40.40 40.40 1998:Q1 25.40 24.10 1998:Q2 34.00 25.00 1998:Q3 14.30 30.40 1998:Q4 47.30 18.90 1999:Q1 31.40 5.70 1999:Q2 7.10 1.80 1999:Q3 21.50 5.50 1999:Q4 23.60 1.90 2000:Q1 25.00 10.00 2000:Q2 35.20 16.00 2000:Q3 35.80 25.40 2000:Q4 54.40 26.90 2001:Q1 57.10 28.90 2001:Q2 44.40 22.30 2001:Q3 50.80 38.20 2001:Q4 58.90 41.80 2002:Q1 40.00 36.40 2002:Q2 23.70 13.20 2002:Q3 41.10 20.00 2002:Q4 29.10 14.80 2003:Q1 27.10 15.50 2003:Q2 14.60 11.10 2003:Q3 12.30 3.60 2003:Q4 13.80 10.50 2004:Q1 26.80 16.70 2004:Q2 39.30 25.90 2004:Q3 30.80 29.10 2004:Q4 50.00 38.20 2005:Q1 45.50 26.00 2005:Q2 70.40 54.70 2005:Q3 46.30 37.70 2005:Q4 45.60 36.80 2006:Q1 42.50 33.40 2006:Q2 59.70 45.60 2006:Q3 41.80 21.50 2006:Q4 29.60 31.50 2007:Q1 44.60 29.60 2007:Q2 52.80 37.20 2007:Q3 32.10 32.70 2007:Q4 34.60 21.10 2008:Q1 43.60 40.10 2008:Q2 71.00 63.60 2008:Q3 80.80 71.10 Period Spreads for large and mediumsized firms Spreads for small firms 2008:Q4 98.20 92.70 2009:Q1 92.50 88.50 2009:Q2 79.20 75.00 2009:Q3 59.30 64.20 2009:Q4 40.40 42.90 2010:Q1 9.10 14.80 2010:Q2 7.10 9.30 2010:Q3 49.10 32.70 2010:Q4 33.30 21.40 2011:Q1 47.40 29.60 Middleright panel Leveraged Loan and Highyield Bond Issuance Billions of dollars, annual rate Period Leveraged loans Highyield bonds 2004 223.43 122.08 2005 240.98 79.95 2006 366.15 126.22 2007 425.80 117.17 2008 69.59 30.95 2009 56.33 124.02 2010:Q1 152.68 209.67 2010:Q2 198.16 209.67 2010:Q3 209.60 209.67 2010:Q4 266.00 209.67 Note: Leveraged loans to institutional investors. Bottomleft panel Consumer Credit 3month moving average Period Percent change, a.r. March 2000 8.18 April 2000 8.59 May 2000 9.17 June 2000 13.07 July 2000 16.05 August 2000 18.37 September 2000 15.63 October 2000 14.18 November 2000 12.50 December 2000 12.00 January 2001 10.98 February 2001 11.27 March 2001 10.12 April 2001 10.63 May 2001 8.18 June 2001 8.05 Period Percent change, a.r. July 2001 5.86 August 2001 5.94 September 2001 5.16 October 2001 7.29 November 2001 11.74 December 2001 11.79 January 2002 8.44 February 2002 5.14 March 2002 5.99 April 2002 8.26 May 2002 7.56 June 2002 7.48 July 2002 7.82 August 2002 7.09 September 2002 5.02 October 2002 3.54 November 2002 3.46 December 2002 4.10 January 2003 5.19 February 2003 5.79 March 2003 6.07 April 2003 6.65 May 2003 7.35 June 2003 6.88 July 2003 5.42 August 2003 4.28 September 2003 4.71 October 2003 4.88 November 2003 3.25 December 2003 3.88 January 2004 4.51 February 2004 5.78 March 2004 6.40 April 2004 4.87 May 2004 5.16 June 2004 3.67 July 2004 4.76 August 2004 4.22 September 2004 6.14 October 2004 7.55 November 2004 7.69 December 2004 6.08 January 2005 3.78 February 2005 5.28 March 2005 5.22 April 2005 6.69 May 2005 3.97 June 2005 5.19 Period Percent change, a.r. July 2005 4.58 August 2005 6.21 September 2005 4.28 October 2005 3.48 November 2005 2.97 December 2005 3.47 January 2006 4.03 February 2006 4.13 March 2006 3.16 April 2006 3.13 May 2006 3.99 June 2006 4.07 July 2006 4.23 August 2006 3.49 September 2006 4.21 October 2006 3.46 November 2006 4.71 December 2006 5.00 January 2007 5.08 February 2007 4.15 March 2007 5.15 April 2007 5.40 May 2007 6.33 June 2007 5.75 July 2007 6.64 August 2007 6.87 September 2007 7.06 October 2007 6.72 November 2007 6.11 December 2007 5.14 January 2008 4.73 February 2008 4.10 March 2008 5.04 April 2008 5.88 May 2008 4.22 June 2008 3.65 July 2008 2.39 August 2008 1.00 September 2008 0.05 October 2008 1.45 November 2008 1.08 December 2008 2.32 January 2009 1.39 February 2009 2.19 March 2009 3.54 April 2009 5.79 May 2009 5.12 June 2009 4.67 Period Percent change, a.r. July 2009 4.35 August 2009 4.14 September 2009 3.75 October 2009 3.38 November 2009 5.33 December 2009 5.38 January 2010 4.50 February 2010 3.51 March 2010 3.85 April 2010 5.34 May 2010 4.56 June 2010 3.27 July 2010 2.35 August 2010 2.06 September 2010 1.73 October 2010 0.37 November 2010 1.41 Bottomright panel Total Debt Growth for Households and Nonfinancial Businesses Fourquarter percent change Period Households Nonfinancial businesses 1989:Q1 9.87 8.81 1989:Q2 9.51 8.40 1989:Q3 9.39 7.36 1989:Q4 9.05 6.81 1990:Q1 9.61 6.20 1990:Q2 9.30 5.04 1990:Q3 8.79 4.80 1990:Q4 7.89 3.49 1991:Q1 6.56 1.27 1991:Q2 6.24 0.39 1991:Q3 5.25 1.08 1991:Q4 5.27 2.44 1992:Q1 5.25 1.68 1992:Q2 4.51 1.80 1992:Q3 5.10 1.10 1992:Q4 5.33 0.17 1993:Q1 4.86 0.71 1993:Q2 5.64 0.42 1993:Q3 6.01 0.05 1993:Q4 6.04 0.57 1994:Q1 6.81 2.01 1994:Q2 6.99 2.78 1994:Q3 7.05 3.60 1994:Q4 7.64 4.07 1995:Q1 7.69 5.15 1995:Q2 7.66 6.48 Households Nonfinancial businesses 1995:Q3 Period 7.70 6.96 1995:Q4 6.83 7.83 1996:Q1 7.36 7.50 1996:Q2 7.31 7.21 1996:Q3 6.92 7.32 1996:Q4 6.94 6.57 1997:Q1 6.14 6.79 1997:Q2 5.87 7.18 1997:Q3 5.97 8.04 1997:Q4 5.81 9.89 1998:Q1 6.21 10.98 1998:Q2 6.96 11.87 1998:Q3 6.93 12.07 1998:Q4 7.77 11.66 1999:Q1 8.21 12.05 1999:Q2 8.06 10.96 1999:Q3 8.82 11.63 1999:Q4 8.34 11.38 2000:Q1 8.09 10.94 2000:Q2 8.41 11.66 2000:Q3 8.59 9.70 2000:Q4 9.24 9.31 2001:Q1 9.48 7.74 2001:Q2 9.72 6.71 2001:Q3 9.66 6.40 2001:Q4 9.62 5.46 2002:Q1 9.94 5.19 2002:Q2 9.85 4.00 2002:Q3 9.97 3.09 2002:Q4 10.77 2.75 2003:Q1 10.99 2.44 2003:Q2 11.86 2.66 2003:Q3 12.31 2.70 2003:Q4 12.03 2.66 2004:Q1 11.62 3.42 2004:Q2 11.28 3.71 2004:Q3 10.87 4.80 2004:Q4 11.20 6.24 2005:Q1 11.31 6.53 2005:Q2 11.21 7.60 2005:Q3 11.48 8.04 2005:Q4 11.10 8.63 2006:Q1 11.61 9.55 2006:Q2 11.59 10.05 2006:Q3 10.98 9.91 2006:Q4 10.10 10.49 2007:Q1 8.88 10.67 2007:Q2 7.83 11.54 Households Nonfinancial businesses 2007:Q3 Period 7.23 13.28 2007:Q4 6.75 13.13 2008:Q1 5.76 12.38 2008:Q2 3.85 10.63 2008:Q3 2.19 8.27 2008:Q4 0.30 5.43 2009:Q1 0.78 3.31 2009:Q2 1.22 0.85 2009:Q3 1.75 1.37 2009:Q4 1.73 2.53 2010:Q1 1.84 2.30 2010:Q2 1.90 1.69 2010:Q3 1.78 0.19 2010:Q4 1.76 1.50 2011:Q1 1.63 1.80 2011:Q2 1.06 2.44 2011:Q3 0.49 2.68 2011:Q4 0.20 2.68 2012:Q1 0.79 2.95 2012:Q2 1.25 3.34 2012:Q3 1.72 3.76 2012:Q4 2.16 4.09 Forecast Exhibit 11 Real Estate Remains a Risk Topleft panel CoreLogic House Price Index Level Quarterly 2007:Q1 = 100 Current November TB December TB 2004:Q1 Period 77.95 ND ND 2004:Q2 81.16 ND ND 2004:Q3 83.83 ND ND 2004:Q4 86.55 ND ND 2005:Q1 91.83 ND ND 2005:Q2 95.05 ND ND 2005:Q3 98.10 ND ND 2005:Q4 100.20 ND ND 2006:Q1 102.78 ND ND 2006:Q2 101.65 ND ND 2006:Q3 100.95 ND ND 2006:Q4 101.17 ND ND 2007:Q1 100.00 ND ND 2007:Q2 97.62 ND ND 2007:Q3 94.67 ND ND Current November TB December TB 2007:Q4 Period 91.67 ND ND 2008:Q1 88.19 ND ND 2008:Q2 84.48 ND ND 2008:Q3 80.54 ND ND 2008:Q4 75.80 ND ND 2009:Q1 71.68 ND ND 2009:Q2 72.57 ND ND 2009:Q3 73.40 ND ND 2009:Q4 73.64 ND ND 2010:Q1 74.13 ND ND 2010:Q2 74.43 ND ND 2010:Q3 71.62 ND ND 2010:Q4 69.37 72.27 69.39 2011:Q1 67.94 71.98 68.32 2011:Q2 67.25 71.79 67.89 2011:Q3 66.83 71.79 67.60 2011:Q4 66.57 71.86 67.41 2012:Q1 66.47 72.02 67.31 2012:Q2 66.47 72.31 67.31 2012:Q3 66.52 72.68 67.36 2012:Q4 66.64 73.17 67.48 Forecast Topright panel Prices of Commercial Real Estate Monthly December 2006 = 100 Period Investment grade Noninvestment grade January 2005 83.18 84.81 February 2005 84.92 86.68 March 2005 86.33 88.37 April 2005 86.61 89.87 May 2005 87.22 90.70 June 2005 89.06 92.55 July 2005 90.10 93.36 August 2005 90.54 94.52 September 2005 93.06 95.82 October 2005 95.31 96.43 November 2005 95.28 98.34 December 2005 96.48 96.68 January 2006 98.45 97.84 February 2006 99.09 98.55 March 2006 98.62 98.45 April 2006 99.53 99.25 May 2006 100.61 100.80 June 2006 100.31 102.32 July 2006 102.07 102.22 August 2006 101.73 99.86 Period Investment grade Noninvestment grade September 2006 102.24 100.26 October 2006 102.52 99.39 November 2006 102.57 99.47 December 2006 100.00 100.00 January 2007 102.80 101.24 February 2007 104.47 103.38 March 2007 106.57 104.15 April 2007 108.93 104.75 May 2007 108.07 106.48 June 2007 109.69 105.50 July 2007 110.14 104.09 August 2007 110.28 104.18 September 2007 106.65 106.25 October 2007 107.84 104.33 November 2007 107.46 103.22 December 2007 105.20 103.34 January 2008 107.68 106.16 February 2008 107.08 108.06 March 2008 105.89 104.82 April 2008 107.16 104.87 May 2008 107.33 101.23 June 2008 106.66 100.95 July 2008 104.33 100.49 August 2008 106.49 101.26 September 2008 104.58 99.73 October 2008 102.08 98.87 November 2008 98.30 97.78 December 2008 92.12 95.04 January 2009 94.88 90.90 February 2009 93.28 89.19 March 2009 87.98 86.53 April 2009 85.86 84.81 May 2009 81.09 83.44 June 2009 80.02 85.29 July 2009 77.58 84.95 August 2009 77.65 87.66 September 2009 75.70 84.73 October 2009 71.15 81.70 November 2009 70.30 83.18 December 2009 67.66 82.83 January 2010 66.64 86.21 February 2010 66.44 84.52 March 2010 69.45 83.97 April 2010 69.26 83.26 May 2010 73.05 82.31 June 2010 69.96 77.56 July 2010 66.80 80.88 August 2010 69.16 76.44 Period Investment grade Noninvestment grade September 2010 73.22 78.08 October 2010 74.97 74.75 November 2010 71.92 73.44 Source: CoStar. Middleleft panel Transition Rate to Delinquency for Residential Mortgages Threemonth moving average Percent Period Nonprime Prime April 2003 4.93 1.19 May 2003 4.84 1.21 June 2003 4.77 1.18 July 2003 4.60 1.12 August 2003 4.58 1.09 September 2003 4.40 1.03 October 2003 4.33 0.96 November 2003 4.32 1.00 December 2003 4.34 0.98 January 2004 4.40 1.02 February 2004 4.30 0.93 March 2004 4.27 0.93 April 2004 4.11 0.90 May 2004 4.18 0.94 June 2004 4.05 0.94 July 2004 3.99 0.92 August 2004 3.78 0.85 September 2004 3.76 0.84 October 2004 3.82 0.90 November 2004 3.70 0.89 December 2004 3.64 0.88 January 2005 3.53 0.86 February 2005 3.53 0.88 March 2005 3.52 0.89 April 2005 3.46 0.88 May 2005 3.49 0.87 June 2005 3.47 0.86 July 2005 3.58 0.89 August 2005 3.45 0.86 September 2005 3.50 0.88 October 2005 3.47 0.87 November 2005 3.59 0.92 December 2005 3.56 0.89 January 2006 3.43 0.86 February 2006 3.41 0.84 March 2006 3.30 0.81 April 2006 3.54 0.88 May 2006 3.53 0.87 Period Nonprime Prime June 2006 3.61 0.88 July 2006 3.52 0.84 August 2006 3.52 0.85 September 2006 3.62 0.88 October 2006 3.56 0.87 November 2006 3.63 0.89 December 2006 3.77 0.93 January 2007 3.78 0.94 February 2007 3.88 0.97 March 2007 3.84 0.98 April 2007 4.08 1.03 May 2007 4.16 1.03 June 2007 4.34 1.04 July 2007 4.33 1.05 August 2007 4.27 1.01 September 2007 4.48 1.07 October 2007 4.51 1.06 November 2007 4.69 1.09 December 2007 4.60 1.06 January 2008 4.79 1.09 February 2008 4.81 1.07 March 2008 5.01 1.11 April 2008 5.10 1.15 May 2008 5.17 1.17 June 2008 5.06 1.15 July 2008 5.03 1.13 August 2008 5.33 1.23 September 2008 5.33 1.23 October 2008 5.50 1.28 November 2008 5.84 1.38 December 2008 5.97 1.39 January 2009 6.09 1.41 February 2009 5.85 1.30 March 2009 5.96 1.36 April 2009 5.80 1.36 May 2009 5.75 1.41 June 2009 5.56 1.39 July 2009 5.46 1.39 August 2009 5.35 1.37 September 2009 5.32 1.37 October 2009 5.27 1.37 November 2009 5.17 1.38 December 2009 5.02 1.35 January 2010 5.19 1.39 February 2010 5.14 1.38 March 2010 5.12 1.37 April 2010 4.80 1.28 May 2010 4.84 1.26 Period Nonprime Prime June 2010 4.79 1.26 July 2010 4.74 1.27 August 2010 4.50 1.20 September 2010 4.46 1.19 October 2010 4.67 1.23 November 2010 4.59 1.21 Source: Staff calculations from LPS Applied Analytics and CoreLogic data. Middleright panel Distressed Commercial and Residential Mortgages at Banks Percent of RE loans Commercial Residential 2003:Q1 Period 0.79 1.23 2003:Q2 0.78 1.12 2003:Q3 0.70 1.05 2003:Q4 0.67 1.11 2004:Q1 0.65 1.10 2004:Q2 0.61 0.98 2004:Q3 0.58 0.97 2004:Q4 0.55 0.96 2005:Q1 0.56 0.91 2005:Q2 0.54 0.90 2005:Q3 0.51 0.93 2005:Q4 0.52 1.01 2006:Q1 0.53 0.99 2006:Q2 0.52 0.90 2006:Q3 0.53 0.93 2006:Q4 0.61 1.11 2007:Q1 0.71 1.19 2007:Q2 0.78 1.20 2007:Q3 0.88 1.41 2007:Q4 1.18 1.73 2008:Q1 1.64 1.98 2008:Q2 2.00 2.21 2008:Q3 2.23 2.68 2008:Q4 2.60 3.54 2009:Q1 3.24 4.38 2009:Q2 3.77 4.85 2009:Q3 4.12 5.42 2009:Q4 4.33 6.42 2010:Q1 4.47 7.04 2010:Q2 4.43 7.03 2010:Q3 4.21 6.98 Source: Call Reports. Bottomleft panel Loan Loss Rates at Commercial Banks (Percent of loans) CRE RRE Other Total 2010e 2.3 2.2 3.7 2.8 Average of 20112012p 3.0 2.2 3.3 2.8 Bottomright panel Real Estate Risks to Banks House prices could fall more than expected. Exams of mortgage foreclosure practices reveal deficiencies. Estimates of mortgage putbacks are material for a few banks. Exhibit 12 (Last) Financial Risk from European and Municipal Debt Developments Topleft panel Spreads on 1 to 10day Financial CP Issues in the U.S. By domicile of parent Basis points Date Italy Ireland Spain 1 September 2009 2.91 32.17 ND 2 September 2009 3.08 30.44 ND 3 September 2009 3.37 31.05 ND 4 September 2009 3.07 29.38 ND 7 September 2009 3.06 30.32 ND 8 September 2009 2.86 28.04 ND 9 September 2009 2.55 24.59 ND 10 September 2009 2.43 27.39 ND 11 September 2009 2.83 26.37 ND 14 September 2009 2.59 26.08 ND 15 September 2009 2.06 25.81 ND 16 September 2009 1.51 25.99 ND 17 September 2009 1.24 24.32 ND 18 September 2009 0.73 24.60 ND 21 September 2009 0.76 25.03 ND 22 September 2009 0.53 26.92 ND 23 September 2009 0.70 29.34 ND 24 September 2009 0.59 31.67 ND 25 September 2009 0.12 29.99 ND 28 September 2009 0.30 32.26 ND 29 September 2009 0.96 35.00 ND 30 September 2009 2.38 34.90 ND 1 October 2009 2.90 34.13 ND 2 October 2009 2.33 40.17 ND 5 October 2009 1.73 37.36 ND 6 October 2009 0.14 34.05 ND 7 October 2009 2.06 29.34 ND 8 October 2009 2.67 29.34 ND 9 October 2009 2.63 29.77 ND 12 October 2009 2.62 29.87 ND Date Italy Ireland Spain 13 October 2009 1.58 25.19 ND 14 October 2009 0.81 23.87 ND 15 October 2009 1.03 20.79 ND 16 October 2009 0.70 16.90 ND 19 October 2009 0.50 16.12 ND 20 October 2009 0.06 15.76 ND 21 October 2009 0.01 13.44 ND 22 October 2009 1.23 13.91 ND 23 October 2009 0.39 13.52 ND 26 October 2009 1.04 13.77 ND 27 October 2009 1.57 13.55 ND 28 October 2009 1.52 15.07 ND 29 October 2009 1.15 15.07 ND 30 October 2009 0.06 16.53 ND 2 November 2009 1.11 15.35 ND 3 November 2009 1.28 15.02 ND 4 November 2009 0.91 15.00 ND 5 November 2009 0.66 14.50 ND 6 November 2009 0.90 13.25 ND 9 November 2009 1.15 12.75 ND 10 November 2009 1.37 12.33 ND 11 November 2009 1.84 12.33 ND 12 November 2009 1.79 13.00 ND 13 November 2009 1.73 15.00 ND 16 November 2009 1.16 16.06 ND 17 November 2009 0.84 15.77 ND 18 November 2009 0.46 15.42 ND 19 November 2009 0.38 15.52 ND 20 November 2009 0.08 14.36 ND 23 November 2009 0.33 13.80 ND 24 November 2009 0.32 13.17 ND 25 November 2009 0.19 12.83 ND 26 November 2009 0.29 12.83 ND 27 November 2009 0.03 12.83 ND 30 November 2009 0.90 12.00 ND 1 December 2009 1.43 11.33 ND 2 December 2009 1.52 12.67 ND 3 December 2009 1.43 15.00 ND 4 December 2009 1.72 15.00 ND 7 December 2009 0.93 16.70 ND 8 December 2009 0.81 17.45 ND 9 December 2009 0.81 16.45 ND 10 December 2009 0.99 14.20 ND 11 December 2009 1.27 13.76 ND 14 December 2009 1.22 13.00 ND 15 December 2009 0.69 12.25 ND 16 December 2009 0.60 12.00 ND 17 December 2009 0.55 11.67 ND Date Italy Ireland Spain 18 December 2009 0.53 11.67 ND 21 December 2009 0.18 11.67 ND 22 December 2009 0.16 12.00 ND 23 December 2009 0.05 12.00 ND 24 December 2009 0.51 14.00 ND 25 December 2009 0.83 16.00 ND 28 December 2009 2.13 16.00 ND 29 December 2009 3.16 16.00 ND 30 December 2009 3.11 16.00 ND 31 December 2009 3.36 17.83 ND 1 January 2010 3.36 17.83 ND 4 January 2010 2.13 18.75 ND 5 January 2010 3.37 16.83 ND 6 January 2010 2.94 16.41 ND 7 January 2010 1.89 13.91 ND 8 January 2010 1.41 14.18 ND 11 January 2010 1.66 14.18 ND 12 January 2010 1.05 14.57 ND 13 January 2010 1.30 15.15 ND 14 January 2010 1.44 15.48 ND 15 January 2010 1.42 14.77 ND 18 January 2010 1.97 14.77 ND 19 January 2010 1.39 14.77 ND 20 January 2010 1.27 13.16 ND 21 January 2010 1.53 12.24 ND 22 January 2010 1.36 12.81 ND 25 January 2010 0.71 12.54 ND 26 January 2010 1.05 12.54 ND 27 January 2010 1.23 13.67 ND 28 January 2010 1.03 14.00 ND 29 January 2010 1.28 12.75 ND 1 February 2010 1.30 12.25 ND 2 February 2010 1.23 11.97 ND 3 February 2010 1.20 11.22 ND 4 February 2010 1.19 10.47 ND 5 February 2010 1.19 11.15 ND 8 February 2010 1.45 11.41 ND 9 February 2010 0.04 11.69 ND 10 February 2010 0.04 12.02 ND 11 February 2010 0.16 12.31 ND 12 February 2010 0.30 12.56 ND 15 February 2010 0.51 12.95 ND 16 February 2010 0.05 12.92 ND 17 February 2010 0.02 12.78 ND 18 February 2010 0.34 12.54 ND 19 February 2010 1.01 12.99 ND 22 February 2010 0.83 12.99 ND 23 February 2010 0.63 13.82 ND Date Italy Ireland Spain 24 February 2010 0.49 14.32 ND 25 February 2010 0.19 14.91 ND 26 February 2010 0.13 14.82 ND 1 March 2010 0.14 14.85 ND 2 March 2010 0.06 14.57 ND 3 March 2010 0.37 13.21 ND 4 March 2010 0.72 12.50 ND 5 March 2010 0.85 11.30 ND 8 March 2010 0.98 9.70 ND 9 March 2010 0.96 10.17 ND 10 March 2010 0.89 11.57 ND 11 March 2010 0.72 11.84 ND 12 March 2010 0.01 13.19 ND 15 March 2010 0.87 12.99 ND 16 March 2010 1.91 11.31 ND 17 March 2010 1.90 10.55 ND 18 March 2010 2.12 9.22 ND 19 March 2010 2.73 8.27 ND 22 March 2010 1.81 8.84 ND 23 March 2010 0.42 10.11 ND 24 March 2010 0.21 10.80 ND 25 March 2010 0.33 11.75 ND 26 March 2010 0.65 11.21 ND 29 March 2010 0.28 10.93 ND 30 March 2010 0.34 11.59 ND 31 March 2010 0.69 13.72 ND 1 April 2010 0.95 14.52 ND 2 April 2010 2.40 16.19 ND 5 April 2010 1.94 18.32 ND 6 April 2010 1.56 15.97 ND 7 April 2010 0.33 10.75 ND 8 April 2010 0.44 9.62 ND 9 April 2010 0.45 9.46 ND 12 April 2010 0.40 9.57 ND 13 April 2010 0.33 9.63 ND 14 April 2010 0.24 9.54 ND 15 April 2010 0.22 8.41 ND 16 April 2010 0.56 8.27 ND 19 April 2010 0.17 7.69 ND 20 April 2010 0.20 7.52 ND 21 April 2010 0.15 7.67 ND 22 April 2010 0.10 8.76 ND 23 April 2010 0.88 8.95 ND 26 April 2010 0.92 9.18 ND 27 April 2010 1.15 9.84 ND 28 April 2010 1.63 10.84 ND 29 April 2010 1.84 11.59 ND 30 April 2010 2.07 12.04 ND Date Italy Ireland Spain 3 May 2010 1.95 12.22 ND 4 May 2010 1.92 11.95 ND 5 May 2010 1.82 11.55 ND 6 May 2010 2.12 12.35 ND 7 May 2010 2.21 12.50 ND 10 May 2010 2.68 14.75 ND 11 May 2010 3.19 16.33 ND 12 May 2010 3.22 18.67 ND 13 May 2010 2.97 20.00 ND 14 May 2010 2.66 17.87 ND 17 May 2010 2.30 19.21 ND 18 May 2010 1.84 19.78 ND 19 May 2010 1.89 21.56 ND 20 May 2010 2.16 21.33 ND 21 May 2010 2.18 22.81 ND 24 May 2010 3.10 24.01 ND 25 May 2010 4.10 26.56 ND 26 May 2010 4.87 26.42 ND 27 May 2010 6.27 29.07 ND 28 May 2010 7.07 30.32 ND 31 May 2010 7.32 30.42 ND 1 June 2010 6.94 28.50 ND 2 June 2010 7.66 28.50 ND 3 June 2010 7.97 30.43 ND 4 June 2010 7.37 34.93 ND 7 June 2010 7.47 34.49 ND 8 June 2010 8.87 34.13 ND 9 June 2010 9.37 35.08 22.00 10 June 2010 8.94 35.91 22.00 11 June 2010 10.91 36.26 22.00 14 June 2010 11.54 37.15 22.00 15 June 2010 11.89 38.09 22.00 16 June 2010 12.09 37.77 ND 17 June 2010 12.06 37.35 24.00 18 June 2010 11.32 37.54 24.00 21 June 2010 10.83 36.83 24.00 22 June 2010 10.33 37.09 24.00 23 June 2010 10.10 37.18 24.00 24 June 2010 10.97 37.52 28.00 25 June 2010 11.42 39.18 28.00 28 June 2010 10.51 38.31 28.00 29 June 2010 10.68 37.87 28.00 30 June 2010 10.05 40.35 28.00 1 July 2010 9.04 39.80 19.61 2 July 2010 8.30 39.40 19.61 5 July 2010 9.37 41.70 19.61 6 July 2010 8.40 42.83 17.80 7 July 2010 7.28 40.96 19.87 Date Italy Ireland Spain 8 July 2010 7.02 41.45 20.54 9 July 2010 6.26 41.38 20.54 12 July 2010 6.03 41.47 20.54 13 July 2010 5.41 42.19 20.87 14 July 2010 5.84 42.29 20.53 15 July 2010 5.15 42.94 20.43 16 July 2010 4.96 40.82 20.43 19 July 2010 5.16 41.05 20.43 20 July 2010 5.46 40.70 21.10 21 July 2010 5.57 40.49 21.08 22 July 2010 5.90 41.45 21.39 23 July 2010 6.40 44.69 20.29 26 July 2010 6.54 46.09 19.44 27 July 2010 6.23 45.63 18.84 28 July 2010 6.19 46.00 18.78 29 July 2010 5.89 45.71 18.36 30 July 2010 5.15 44.82 18.70 2 August 2010 4.56 43.71 18.20 3 August 2010 3.71 43.85 18.54 4 August 2010 2.79 44.38 17.38 5 August 2010 2.17 43.53 16.93 6 August 2010 1.78 43.23 16.93 9 August 2010 1.20 41.27 17.91 10 August 2010 1.10 42.36 14.78 11 August 2010 1.05 42.25 11.34 12 August 2010 1.19 42.56 11.55 13 August 2010 1.49 43.19 11.55 16 August 2010 1.98 46.00 11.55 17 August 2010 2.36 44.08 11.89 18 August 2010 2.29 42.59 11.50 19 August 2010 2.33 43.30 10.50 20 August 2010 2.63 44.19 10.50 23 August 2010 2.52 43.38 10.50 24 August 2010 2.49 44.40 10.65 25 August 2010 2.39 46.09 10.42 26 August 2010 1.95 45.11 9.92 27 August 2010 1.16 44.71 9.19 30 August 2010 0.71 45.15 9.19 31 August 2010 0.42 43.56 8.71 1 September 2010 0.43 41.53 9.67 2 September 2010 0.81 39.91 9.17 3 September 2010 1.30 40.16 10.25 6 September 2010 1.48 40.16 10.25 7 September 2010 2.00 36.71 9.75 8 September 2010 2.27 37.25 9.75 9 September 2010 2.50 39.79 10.25 10 September 2010 2.37 33.67 10.25 13 September 2010 2.31 35.71 10.25 Date Italy Ireland Spain 14 September 2010 2.13 39.08 10.25 15 September 2010 1.76 38.33 8.13 16 September 2010 1.35 37.17 6.80 17 September 2010 1.51 41.39 6.80 20 September 2010 1.64 36.96 6.80 21 September 2010 1.91 35.72 7.13 22 September 2010 2.42 36.43 8.75 23 September 2010 3.12 38.18 10.75 24 September 2010 2.62 34.04 10.75 27 September 2010 2.49 33.52 10.75 28 September 2010 2.55 30.86 10.75 29 September 2010 3.02 27.74 9.67 30 September 2010 3.47 23.74 8.17 1 October 2010 3.55 24.36 7.87 4 October 2010 3.66 25.32 7.87 5 October 2010 3.44 25.81 7.87 6 October 2010 2.98 27.02 7.87 7 October 2010 1.93 27.16 7.75 8 October 2010 2.31 27.35 7.63 11 October 2010 2.26 27.10 7.63 12 October 2010 2.18 32.78 7.63 13 October 2010 1.41 31.47 7.13 14 October 2010 1.22 29.96 6.72 15 October 2010 0.30 28.78 6.80 18 October 2010 0.41 28.78 6.80 19 October 2010 0.17 22.53 6.46 20 October 2010 0.72 25.54 6.79 21 October 2010 0.72 25.71 6.66 22 October 2010 1.22 27.95 6.66 25 October 2010 1.07 27.95 6.66 26 October 2010 0.99 35.95 6.67 27 October 2010 0.67 32.31 6.33 28 October 2010 0.80 33.15 6.17 29 October 2010 0.84 36.86 5.50 1 November 2010 0.77 35.09 5.50 2 November 2010 0.72 32.11 5.25 3 November 2010 0.70 33.16 5.17 4 November 2010 0.85 33.19 4.57 5 November 2010 0.72 26.69 5.10 8 November 2010 0.87 26.75 4.77 9 November 2010 1.02 26.75 4.44 10 November 2010 1.18 27.81 5.21 11 November 2010 1.01 28.08 5.37 12 November 2010 0.84 30.04 5.66 15 November 2010 0.80 29.62 6.17 16 November 2010 1.08 29.62 6.94 17 November 2010 1.18 27.44 6.61 18 November 2010 1.53 31.62 6.58 Date Italy Ireland Spain 19 November 2010 1.96 35.67 6.58 22 November 2010 2.32 36.67 6.58 23 November 2010 2.26 34.50 8.75 24 November 2010 2.41 34.60 10.61 25 November 2010 2.27 33.25 11.98 26 November 2010 2.39 31.00 13.20 29 November 2010 2.36 31.50 13.20 30 November 2010 2.24 34.50 12.04 1 December 2010 2.27 34.50 11.57 2 December 2010 2.39 34.67 10.38 3 December 2010 2.58 35.00 9.33 6 December 2010 2.77 35.40 9.33 7 December 2010 3.11 36.20 9.80 8 December 2010 3.16 36.80 9.05 9 December 2010 3.10 36.80 9.80 10 December 2010 2.93 36.60 10.74 13 December 2010 2.74 36.00 10.74 14 December 2010 3.02 34.80 10.50 15 December 2010 3.25 33.73 11.00 16 December 2010 3.58 33.18 8.00 17 December 2010 3.93 32.73 8.00 20 December 2010 4.47 32.82 8.00 21 December 2010 4.47 ND 8.00 22 December 2010 4.63 ND 8.00 23 December 2010 5.65 ND 14.00 24 December 2010 8.27 ND 14.00 27 December 2010 8.36 ND 14.00 28 December 2010 8.75 ND 14.00 29 December 2010 9.96 ND 14.00 30 December 2010 10.31 ND 12.00 31 December 2010 7.93 ND 12.00 3 January 2011 7.12 ND 12.00 4 January 2011 6.27 ND 11.00 5 January 2011 4.61 ND 11.00 6 January 2011 4.33 ND 10.50 7 January 2011 3.99 ND 10.50 10 January 2011 4.27 ND 10.67 11 January 2011 4.52 ND 11.00 12 January 2011 4.43 ND 11.00 13 January 2011 4.01 ND 11.50 14 January 2011 5.10 ND 11.67 17 January 2011 5.70 ND 12.00 18 January 2011 5.76 ND 11.00 19 January 2011 6.64 ND 11.00 20 January 2011 6.79 ND 10.67 21 January 2011 6.58 ND 10.00 24 January 2011 5.75 ND 11.00 * 5day moving average. Spread to AA nonfinancial unsecured rate. Topright panel Peripheral Europe: Shortterm Debt Outstanding and U.S. MMF Holdings Biweekly MMF unsecured debt holdings Period Billions of dollars 19 May 2010 94.06 2 June 2010 76.62 16 June 2010 70.57 30 June 2010 77.28 14 July 2010 73.61 28 July 2010 71.70 11 August 2010 89.68 25 August 2010 86.85 8 September 2010 87.83 22 September 2010 82.90 6 October 2010 83.09 20 October 2010 78.56 3 November 2010 76.78 17 November 2010 64.52 1 December 2010 54.17 15 December 2010 38.22 29 December 2010 38.99 12 January 2011 38.04 Outstanding CP + Negotiable CDs Period Billions of dollars 16 January 2010 168.69 13 February 2010 173.51 13 March 2010 169.39 27 March 2010 164.65 10 April 2010 162.69 24 April 2010 157.94 8 May 2010 145.73 22 May 2010 128.15 19 June 2010 97.75 3 July 2010 98.17 31 July 2010 91.99 14 August 2010 107.71 28 August 2010 122.99 25 September 2010 123.90 9 October 2010 120.32 6 November 2010 114.81 1 January 2011 70.63 15 January 2011 66.85 Source: DTCC and Investment Company Institute. Middleleft panel U.S. MMF European Exposures* Biweekly Percent of MMF assets Period Italy Ireland Spain Other Europe 19 May 2010 2.14 0.35 3.34 49.53 2 June 2010 1.67 0.39 2.72 49.12 16 June 2010 1.48 0.43 2.57 51.48 30 June 2010 1.74 0.49 2.67 50.03 14 July 2010 1.53 0.50 2.58 54.56 28 July 2010 1.51 0.50 2.45 56.22 11 August 2010 2.20 0.48 2.85 56.16 25 August 2010 2.12 0.48 2.73 57.40 8 September 2010 2.30 0.22 2.80 56.95 22 September 2010 2.06 0.20 2.81 56.43 6 October 2010 2.13 0.04 2.90 56.48 20 October 2010 1.89 0.00 2.92 55.35 3 November 2010 1.80 0.00 2.88 56.44 17 November 2010 1.70 0.00 2.24 58.12 1 December 2010 1.51 0.00 1.78 57.37 15 December 2010 1.21 0.00 1.14 56.44 29 December 2010 1.24 0.00 1.15 55.91 12 January 2011 1.18 0.00 1.15 54.11 * Unsecured debt, ABCP, and repurchase agreements. Return to text Source: Investment Company Institute. Middleright panel Banking System Credit Exposure to Peripheral Europe June 2010, billions of dollars Greece, Portugal, Ireland Total as percent of Tier 1 Capital Spain France 142 165 105 Germany 213 182 136 67 52 15 United States Source: BIS consolidated banking statistics. Bottomleft panel Selected States CDS Fiveyear Spreads Weekly Percent California Illinois Texas MCDX 11 January 2008 Period 0.46 0.24 0.21 ND 18 January 2008 0.58 0.23 0.24 ND 25 January 2008 0.55 0.21 0.22 ND 1 February 2008 0.55 0.18 0.21 ND 8 February 2008 0.56 0.19 0.19 ND 15 February 2008 0.61 0.18 0.20 ND 22 February 2008 0.64 0.20 0.19 ND 29 February 2008 0.75 0.31 0.28 ND 7 March 2008 0.79 0.32 0.29 ND 14 March 2008 0.82 0.33 0.31 ND 21 March 2008 0.81 0.37 0.25 ND Period California Illinois Texas MCDX 28 March 2008 0.71 0.33 0.25 ND 4 April 2008 0.53 0.23 0.19 ND 11 April 2008 0.58 0.22 0.19 ND 18 April 2008 0.58 0.20 0.19 ND 25 April 2008 0.58 0.22 0.19 ND 2 May 2008 0.55 0.21 0.19 ND 9 May 2008 0.58 0.21 0.19 0.44 16 May 2008 0.64 0.21 0.19 0.39 23 May 2008 0.66 0.21 0.19 0.45 30 May 2008 0.67 0.21 0.19 0.46 6 June 2008 0.66 0.24 0.19 0.47 13 June 2008 0.66 0.24 0.19 0.48 20 June 2008 0.74 0.23 0.19 0.59 27 June 2008 0.78 0.23 0.19 0.67 4 July 2008 0.84 0.27 0.20 ND 11 July 2008 0.87 0.29 0.22 0.71 18 July 2008 0.83 0.29 0.20 0.72 25 July 2008 0.86 0.29 0.20 0.75 1 August 2008 0.91 0.32 0.21 0.76 8 August 2008 0.93 0.32 0.21 0.75 15 August 2008 0.88 0.34 0.20 0.75 22 August 2008 0.93 0.36 0.25 0.81 29 August 2008 0.98 0.39 0.24 0.85 5 September 2008 0.96 0.38 0.23 0.84 12 September 2008 0.95 0.42 0.25 0.85 19 September 2008 1.00 0.54 0.46 0.89 26 September 2008 1.01 0.58 0.43 0.91 3 October 2008 1.57 0.71 0.54 1.10 10 October 2008 1.86 0.89 0.65 1.35 17 October 2008 1.69 0.90 0.76 1.30 24 October 2008 1.77 1.03 0.79 1.47 31 October 2008 1.90 1.16 0.94 1.53 7 November 2008 1.66 0.97 0.82 1.45 14 November 2008 1.71 1.14 0.85 1.50 21 November 2008 2.13 1.32 1.13 1.83 28 November 2008 2.14 1.32 1.10 1.75 5 December 2008 3.75 2.09 1.71 2.95 12 December 2008 4.95 2.70 2.04 3.43 19 December 2008 4.25 2.48 1.58 2.75 26 December 2008 4.23 2.42 1.58 2.73 2 January 2009 4.23 2.47 1.68 2.60 9 January 2009 4.73 2.14 1.63 2.23 16 January 2009 4.48 2.12 1.55 2.45 23 January 2009 4.00 2.24 1.59 2.54 30 January 2009 3.71 1.95 1.50 1.38 6 February 2009 3.43 1.97 1.47 ND 13 February 2009 3.69 1.87 1.65 2.18 20 February 2009 3.29 1.92 1.60 2.51 Period California Illinois Texas MCDX 27 February 2009 3.65 2.00 1.75 ND 6 March 2009 3.58 2.15 1.75 2.90 13 March 2009 3.52 2.45 1.75 2.65 20 March 2009 3.45 2.41 1.73 2.37 27 March 2009 3.38 2.28 1.62 2.26 3 April 2009 3.41 2.30 1.69 2.25 10 April 2009 3.25 2.30 1.63 ND 17 April 2009 2.93 ND 1.51 1.92 24 April 2009 2.80 2.00 1.42 1.95 1 May 2009 2.73 1.93 1.40 1.93 8 May 2009 2.48 1.70 1.30 1.63 15 May 2009 2.64 1.78 1.34 1.84 22 May 2009 2.54 1.78 1.28 1.78 29 May 2009 2.50 1.76 1.27 1.94 5 June 2009 2.64 1.75 1.20 1.67 12 June 2009 2.99 1.86 1.28 1.79 19 June 2009 3.68 1.95 1.34 1.99 26 June 2009 3.50 1.93 1.36 2.15 3 July 2009 3.50 1.80 1.37 ND 10 July 2009 3.50 1.94 1.32 2.07 17 July 2009 3.41 2.03 1.36 1.88 24 July 2009 2.98 1.95 1.29 1.65 31 July 2009 2.81 1.99 1.23 ND 7 August 2009 2.75 1.89 1.19 1.44 14 August 2009 2.73 1.84 1.14 1.43 21 August 2009 2.75 1.85 1.03 1.40 28 August 2009 2.59 1.68 1.05 1.22 4 September 2009 2.46 1.68 1.00 1.28 11 September 2009 2.25 1.65 0.99 1.13 18 September 2009 1.96 1.03 0.84 0.98 25 September 2009 1.76 0.90 0.75 0.93 2 October 2009 1.71 0.82 0.75 0.93 9 October 2009 1.86 0.84 0.65 0.88 16 October 2009 1.83 0.84 0.65 0.89 23 October 2009 1.74 0.69 0.62 0.90 30 October 2009 1.88 0.90 0.64 ND 6 November 2009 1.90 0.90 0.64 1.13 13 November 2009 1.92 0.97 0.75 1.29 20 November 2009 2.19 1.20 0.66 1.49 27 November 2009 2.54 1.30 0.86 1.61 4 December 2009 2.59 1.29 0.85 1.39 11 December 2009 2.62 1.45 0.81 1.43 18 December 2009 2.61 1.58 0.81 1.40 25 December 2009 2.72 1.68 0.84 ND 1 January 2010 2.63 1.49 0.68 ND 8 January 2010 2.65 1.52 0.74 1.33 15 January 2010 2.94 1.61 0.70 1.55 22 January 2010 3.14 1.80 0.76 1.65 Period California Illinois Texas MCDX 29 January 2010 3.49 2.19 0.82 1.72 5 February 2010 3.65 2.33 0.87 1.77 12 February 2010 3.22 2.20 0.81 1.54 19 February 2010 3.20 2.21 0.76 1.58 26 February 2010 3.15 2.28 0.78 1.65 5 March 2010 3.03 2.03 0.75 1.50 12 March 2010 2.69 1.88 0.67 1.31 19 March 2010 2.35 1.87 0.65 1.43 26 March 2010 2.00 1.70 0.62 1.32 2 April 2010 1.98 1.63 0.57 1.29 9 April 2010 1.88 1.71 0.55 ND 16 April 2010 1.76 1.58 0.49 1.19 23 April 2010 1.70 1.53 0.50 1.20 30 April 2010 1.82 1.53 0.38 1.26 7 May 2010 2.58 1.84 0.52 1.61 14 May 2010 2.58 2.11 0.55 1.65 21 May 2010 2.60 2.07 0.54 1.67 28 May 2010 2.60 2.09 0.62 1.63 4 June 2010 2.84 2.38 0.74 1.86 11 June 2010 2.86 2.66 0.81 2.08 18 June 2010 2.91 3.12 0.84 2.11 25 June 2010 3.38 3.51 1.05 2.41 2 July 2010 3.35 3.40 0.89 2.53 9 July 2010 3.06 3.12 0.84 2.28 16 July 2010 2.80 3.00 0.81 2.22 23 July 2010 2.71 2.84 0.79 2.14 30 July 2010 2.63 2.68 0.80 2.04 6 August 2010 2.65 2.69 0.78 2.08 13 August 2010 2.75 2.88 0.71 2.14 20 August 2010 2.68 2.78 0.74 2.21 27 August 2010 2.71 2.91 0.75 ND 3 September 2010 2.47 2.84 0.75 2.18 10 September 2010 2.57 2.96 0.75 2.28 17 September 2010 2.61 2.72 0.76 2.27 24 September 2010 2.41 2.63 0.71 2.15 1 October 2010 2.60 2.70 0.71 2.18 8 October 2010 2.43 2.44 0.68 2.02 15 October 2010 2.52 2.41 0.62 2.03 22 October 2010 2.53 2.44 0.66 2.03 29 October 2010 2.39 2.43 0.64 1.88 5 November 2010 2.31 2.31 0.57 1.62 12 November 2010 2.52 2.47 0.58 ND 19 November 2010 2.58 2.48 0.60 1.87 26 November 2010 2.56 2.54 0.62 1.86 3 December 2010 2.47 2.45 0.62 1.78 10 December 2010 2.60 2.64 0.66 2.13 17 December 2010 2.63 2.85 0.82 1.99 24 December 2010 2.74 3.10 0.76 ND Period California Illinois Texas MCDX 31 December 2010 2.73 3.10 0.81 2.13 7 January 2011 2.76 3.23 0.96 2.30 14 January 2011 2.65 2.83 0.95 2.22 21 January 2011 2.52 2.69 0.91 2.02 Bottomright panel Risks State and local governments pay higher rates. Could lose access to VRDOs. VRDOs are longterm bonds with interest rates that reset frequently. Bank credit losses from loans and securities likely modest. Balance sheets pressured if investors putback VRDOs. Appendix 4: Materials used by Ms. Zickler Material for Briefing on FOMC Participants' Economic Projections Joyce Zickler January 25, 2011 Class I FOMC Restricted Controlled (FR) Exhibit 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 201113 and over the longer run Actual values for years 2006 through 2010. Change in real GDP Percent 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer run 2.4 2.3 2.8 0.2 2.9 Upper End of Range 4.2 4.5 5.0 3.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 3.9 4.4 4.6 2.8 Lower End of Central Tendency 3.4 3.5 3.7 2.5 Lower End of Range 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer run Actual Unemployment rate Percent Actual 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 9.6 Upper End of Range 9.0 8.4 7.9 6.2 Upper End of Central Tendency 9.0 8.1 7.2 6.0 Lower End of Central Tendency 8.8 7.6 6.8 5.0 Lower End of Range 8.4 7.2 6.0 5.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer run 1.9 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 PCE inflation Percent Actual Upper End of Range 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Longer run Upper End of Central Tendency 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 Lower End of Central Tendency 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.6 Lower End of Range 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.5 Core PCE inflation Percent 2006 Actual 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 0.8 Upper End of Range 1.8 2.0 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 1.3 1.5 2.0 Lower End of Central Tendency 1.0 1.0 1.2 Lower End of Range 0.7 0.6 0.6 [In Exhibit 1, emphasis (italic) indicates Tealbook forecast values for 2010.] Exhibit 2. Economic projections for 20112013 and over the longer run (percent) Change in real GDP 2011 Central Tendency 2012 2013 Longer run 3.4 to 3.9 3.5 to 4.4 3.7 to 4.6 2.5 to 2.8 November projections 3.0 to 3.6 3.6 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.6 2.5 to 2.8 Range 3.2 to 4.2 3.4 to 4.5 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0 November projections 2.5 to 4.0 2.6 to 4.7 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0 Memo: Tealbook 4.4 4.6 3.0 3.6 4.7 4.7 2.8 2011 November Tealbook 3.8 2012 2013 Longer run Unemployment rate Central Tendency 8.8 to 9.0 7.6 to 8.1 6.8 to 7.2 5.0 to 6.0 November projections 8.9 to 9.1 7.7 to 8.2 6.9 to 7.4 5.0 to 6.0 Range 8.4 to 9.0 7.2 to 8.4 6.0 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.2 November projections 8.2 to 9.3 7.0 to 8.7 5.9 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.3 Memo: Tealbook 7.8 7.0 5.2 9.0 7.9 7.1 5.2 2011 November Tealbook 8.9 2012 2013 Longer run PCE inflation Central Tendency 1.3 to 1.7 1.0 to 1.9 1.2 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 November projections 1.1 to 1.7 1.1 to 1.8 1.2 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 Range 1.0 to 2.0 0.7 to 2.2 0.6 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 November projections 0.9 to 2.2 0.6 to 2.2 0.4 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 Memo: Tealbook 1.3 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.0 2011 November Tealbook 2012 2013 Core PCE inflation Central Tendency 1.0 to 1.3 1.0 to 1.5 1.2 to 2.0 November projections 0.9 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.6 1.1 to 2.0 Range 0.7 to 1.8 0.6 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.0 November projections 0.7 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.0 0.5 to 2.0 Memo: Tealbook 1.0 1.0 1.2 2011 2012 2013 1.0 1.0 1.2 November Tealbook Note: The changes in real GDP and inflation are measured Q4/Q4 Exhibit 3. Risks and uncertainty in economic projections Topleft panel Uncertainty about GDP growth Number of participants Lower Similar Higher January projections 1 3 14 November projections 0 2 16 Topright panel Risks to GDP growth Number of participants Downside Balanced Upside January projections 1 14 3 November projections 7 10 1 Bottomleft panel Uncertainty about PCE inflation Number of participants Lower Similar Higher January projections 1 3 14 November projections 1 3 14 Bottomright panel Risks to PCE inflation Number of participants Downside Balanced Upside January projections 2 13 3 November projections 5 11 2 Appendix 5: Materials used by Mr. Stockton The Market for New SingleFamily Homes Top panel 2010 2010 Q2 Q3 2010 Q4 Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 Sales Total Previous 321 335 291 288 296 280 280 275 290 329 2010 2010 Percent Change Q2 2010 Q3 Q4 Oct. Nov. Dec. 14.4 6.9 13.1 1.7 11.7 .0 17.5 Northeast 31 33 31 23 30 20 19 Midwest 44 47 42 34 40 31 32 South 173 180 159 165 161 165 168 West 73 76 59 74 49 64 110 190 211 202 190 200 195 190 8.0 7.9 8.5 8.0 8.6 8.4 6.9 271.6 264.2 253.8 n.a. 253.4 278.6 293.7 Yeartoyear percent change5 .3 1.9 7.6 n.a. 5.2 3.4 4.3 Oneperiod percent change (annual rate for quarters, monthly rate for months) .3 20.9 14.9 n.a. 5.8 9.9 5.4 Yeartoyear percent change5 .4 1.1 .1 1.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. Oneperiod percent change (annual rate for quarters) .4 9.7 .7 3.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. By region Inventories New homes for sale2 Months' supply 3 Prices Mean (thousands of dollars)4 Constantquality price index6 1. Thousands of units, s.a.a.r., except where noted. Percent change is from previous comparable period, not at an annual rate. Return to table 2. Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted, end of period stock. Return to table 3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of s.a. inventories to s.a. sales. Quarterly and annual values are averages of monthly values. Return to table 4. Quarterly and annual values of mean prices are equal to a weighted average of monthly data; the weights are based on the response rate to the survey in each month. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table 5. Yeartoyear percent changes are from the yearearlier comparable period. Return to table 6. Based on characteristics of new homes sold in 2005. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table s.a.a.r. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. s.a. Seasonally adjusted. n.a. Not available. Source: Census Bureau. Bottomleft panel New Home Sales Data plotted as a curve. The period covered is from January 1997 through December 2010, and the data are in millions of units. As shown in the figure, new home sales were relatively flat from 1999 through 2002, at which point they increased until their peak in mid2005. New home sales fell drastically from 2006 through about 2008, and have remained more or less flat at a low level since the end of 2008. The most recent month of data (December 2010) shows a 17.5% increase in new home sales from the previous month (November 2010). Source: Census Bureau. Bottomright panel Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply Data plotted as curves. The period covered is from January 2001 through December 2010. The chart shows 2 curves, plotted on different scales. The left scale shows inventories of new homes in thousands of units. Inventories rose from the beginning of 2001 to mid2006, and have fallen drastically since then. The most recent month of data (December 2010) is the lowest level of inventories during the time period shown. The right scale shows months' supply of new homes, and the units are number of months. Months' supply was relatively flat from 2001 through mid2005 at a level of about 4 months. From there it increased to its peak of about 11 months at the end of 2008. The months' supply fell during 2009 and has jumped around a little since, but remains elevated compared to its level in the early 2000s. Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3month moving average of sales. Source: Census Bureau. Appendix 6: Materials used by Mr. English Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives Bill English January 26, 2011 Class I FOMC Restricted Controlled (FR) December FOMC Statement 1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward. 2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow. 3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longerterm Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the assetpurchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. 4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate. [Note: In the January FOMC Statement Alternatives, emphasis (strikethrough) indicates strikethrough text in the original document, and strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.] January FOMC StatementAlternative A 1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year in recent quarters, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to been trending downward. 2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been remains disappointingly slow and there are still significant downside risks to the economic outlook. 3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities. as announced in November. Moreover, in light of incoming information, the Committee now intends to increase its holdings of securities by a total of $800 billion$200 billion more than announced in Novemberby purchasing longerterm Treasury securities at a pace of about $75 billion per month through the third quarter of 2011. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longerterm Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the assetpurchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. 4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to currently anticipates that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period at least through mid2012. 5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate. January FOMC StatementAlternative B 1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending is increasing at a moderate pace picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable, but and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward. 2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in the context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow. 3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee will is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee and intends to purchase $600 billion of longerterm Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month [, which, given the quantity of purchases thus far, implies a pace of about $80 billion per month]. [The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the assetpurchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Committee will continued its practice of regularly reviewing the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the assetpurchase program in light of incoming information, and will it remains prepared to adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.] 4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate. January FOMC StatementAlternative C 1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending is increasing at a moderate pace has picked up but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. and business investment is rising. However, employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable, but and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward. 2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, Progress toward the Committee's objectives has been disappointingly slow, but there are some indications that the economic recovery is strengthening. 3. To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities. as announced in November. However, in light of incoming information, the Committee now intends to increase its holdings of securities by a total of $400 billion$200 billion less than announced in Novemberby purchasing longerterm Treasury securities at a pace of about $40 billion per month through the second quarter of 2011. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longerterm Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the assetpurchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. 4. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 5. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels [of 2 percent or a bit less, which the Committee judges to be] consistent with its mandate. January FOMC StatementAlternative D 1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing. though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Growth in household spending is increasing at a moderate pace has picked up but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. and business investment is rising. Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and longerterm inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward. commodity prices have risen noticeably. 2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow. 2. To promote a stronger pace of support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant low levels for the federal funds rate for some time. However, the Committee judges that a further expansion of its securities holdings is not necessary to support a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided today to continue expanding discontinue the asset purchase program it its holdings of securities as announced in November. For the time being, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longerterm Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the assetpurchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. 3. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 3. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate promote maximum employment and price stability. [Note: In the January 2011 FOMC Directive Alternatives, emphasis (strikethrough) indicates strikethrough text in the original document, and strong emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.] January 2011 FOMC Directive Alternative A The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its longrun objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longerterm Treasury securities in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to approximately $2.6 $2.8 trillion by the end of June September 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgagebacked securities in longerterm Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. January 2011 FOMC Directive Alternative B The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its longrun objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longerterm Treasury securities in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to approximately $2.6 trillion by the end of June 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgagebacked securities in longerterm Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. January 2011 FOMC Directive Alternative C The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its longrun objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longerterm Treasury securities in order to increase the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to approximately $2.6 $2.4 trillion by the end of June 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities in longerterm Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. January 2011 FOMC Directive Alternative D The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its longrun objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to ¼ percent. The Committee directs the Desk to execute purchases of longerterm Treasury securities in order to increase maintain the total face value of domestic securities held in the System Open Market Account to at approximately $2.6 $2.2 trillion by the end of June 2011. The Committee also directs the Desk to by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgagebacked securities in longerterm Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. Return to top Home | Monetary policy | FOMC | FOMC transcripts Accessibility | Contact Us Last update: January 12, 2017
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