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(CONFIDENTIAL FR) January 12, 1973 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM January 12, 1973 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments RPD and the money supply aggregates all appear to be (1) expanding at rates well above the upper limits of the Committee's December-January ranges of tolerance, as shown in the following table. For December alone, growth of M 1 and M 2 accelerated to annual rates of 15.8 and 14.6 per cent, respectively (before annual seasonal and benchmark revisions).1/ Growth of M 1 in the fourth quarter was at an 8.6 per cent annual rate, and growth for all of 1972 at an 8.2 per cent rate. Although levels of M 1 and M 2 both receded somewhat in early January, they remained high relative to earlier projections. Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD In December-January Period (SAAR in Percentage Points) Ranges of Tolerance Current Estimates RPD 4 - 11 15-1/2 M1 3 - 11-1/2 M2 4- 9 10 13 MEMO: Federal Funds 5-1/8--5-7/8 5.66 (week ending Jan. 10) (2) Contra-seasonal December increases in State and local Government holdings of both demand and time deposits suggest that--as 1/ The revised series is described and compared with the old series in Appendix A. expected--revenue sharing payments did contribute importantly to recent growth of the money supply aggregates. In the case of M1, this contri- bution apparently accounted for about 3 percentage points of the December growth. No other special contributing factors have been docu- mented, however; for example, a System telephone survey of banks parti- cularly affected by Regulation J and the establishment of new RCC's turned up little evidence of bank requests for increased compensatory balances from corporations or others. The most plausible explanation of recent rapid monetary growth thus appears to be the stimulus to transactions demands generated by strong economic expansion. (3) Shortly after the last Committee meeting, incoming deposit data indicated that the reserve and monetary aggregates were tending to run above the upper limits of the Committee's ranges of tolerance, and the extent of these overshoots widened as the inter-meeting period progressed. Because the terms of the Treasury's new bond financing were announced at about the time firm evidence of overshoots became available, the Desk was somewhat inhibited in moving to resist these excesses. Within this "even- keel" constraint, however, the Desk did hold back on the provision of nonborrowed reserves, and the average Federal funds rate advanced nearly 30 basis points over the inter-meeting period. In the latest statement week, the funds rate averaged around 5.65 per cent. Recently, trading has been 5.75 per cent, with Desk strategy on the provision of reserves expected to result in a funds rate ranging between 5-3/4 and 5-7/8 per cent. (4) Fluctuations in the rates at which Federal funds actually traded were considerably wider than usual, ranging generally from as low as 4-1/2 per cent to as high as 7 per cent. Large and erratic day-to-day fluctuations in float contributed importantly to this increased rate volatility by making it more difficult for both banks and the Desk to manage reserve positions. In these circumstances member bank borrowing was unusually heavy, particularly over the two long holiday weekends. Average borrowings, however, dropped from $1.8 billion in the New Year's holiday week to about $690 million in the latest week. (5) The general firming of money market conditions over the inter-meeting period was accompanied by relatively modest advances in other interest rates. In short-term markets these advances ranged from 5 to 20 basis points, but in long-term markets rates were generally unchanged to only about 10 basis points higher. Sizable demand for securities --arising partly from the reinvestment of revenue-sharing payments--tended to limit rate advances on the most liquid types of short-term instruments, particularly short-maturity Treasury bills. The yield on 3-month bills, for example, showed a net decline mid-way in the inter-meeting period. But recently it has risen to about 5.25 per cent, with announcement of the Phase III wage-price program exerting a modest bearish impact on credit markets. (6) In the Treasury auction of its new 20-year bond demands from reporting Government security dealers and other market professionals proved to be stronger than anticipated, with their awards amounting to more than half the total offering. Secondary market demand for the issue from final investors was unenthusiastic at the unexpectedly low 6.79 per cent stop-out yield, and -4- the yield on the issue rose to 6.85 per cent as professionals Positions of reporting dealers have pressed to reduce their positions. declined substantially in the past few days, and most recently were about $70 million (7) The table on the following page compares recent changes in money and credit aggregates (seasonally adjusted annual rates) with those for selected earlier periods. of money are in terms of the new, Comparison for the various concepts revised series. Average for 1970 and 1971 Dec. '71 over Dec. '69 Year 1972 Dec. '72 over Dec. '71 Past 6 Months Dec. '72 over June '72 Past 3 Months Dec. '72 over Sept.'72 Past Month Dec. '7 2 over Nov. '72 Total Reserves 6.9 10.6 9.0 14.3 15.7 Nonborrowed Reserves 9.0 7.5 2.7 7.4 -1.7 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits 8.3 10.1 10.7 10.9 16.1 M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 6.6 8.2 8.6 8.8 13.3 11.0 11.1 10.4 12.7 11.2 13.0 12.4 11.3 12.1 9.3 11.7 11.4 11.8 14.4 Loans and investments of commercial 10.2 banks 2/ 14.0 14.2 14.4 10.7 10.2 6.6 3.3 Concepts of Money M2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large 10.3 CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) Short-term market paper (Actual $ change in billions) Large CD's 22.4 2.3 Nonbank commercial -0.4 3/ 0.3 3/ -1. 5 3 / 1.3 3/ 0.3 paper L/ Other than interbank and U. S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. 3/ Latest data November 1972. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investment of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are either end-of-month or last Wednesday of month figures. Prospective developments (8) As in the previous Blue Book, three alternative sets of relationships among monetary aggregates and money market conditions are shown in summary form below for FOMC consideration (with figures for aggregates representing seasonally adjusted annual rates of growth). More detailed monthly and quarterly figures are shown in the table on page 6a. Figures for money supply as variously defined represent the new, revised series. Revision of the bank credit proxy and reserve series has not yet been fully completed, and the figures for RPD represent our best judgmental estimate of numbers consistent with the new money supply series, pending completion of the overall revision in the next two weeks. Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Longer-run targets for aggregates (represented by average growth rates for first half of 1973) Ml 6--7 5--6 4--5 M2 7--8 6--7 5--6 Credit proxy 5--6 4--5 3--4 RPD 7--8 6--7 5--6 12--14 10--12 10--12 9--11 Associated ranges for January -February '73 Nonborrowed RPD RPD M1 17-1/2--19-1/2 11--13 7--9 6-1/2-8-1/2 6--8 M2 8-1/2--10-1/2 8--10 7-1/2--9-1/2 Federal funds rate 5-3/8--5-7/8 5-5/8--6-1/4 5-3/4--k-1/2 -6aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates Adjusted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1972 Dec. 256.0 256.0 256.0 525.8 525.8 525.8 406.4 406.4 406.4 1973 Jan. Feb. Mar. 257.5 259.4 260.8 257.4 259.2 257.3 259.0 260.5 260.2 530.5 534.3 537.3 530.3 533.9 536.4 530.2 533.3 535.4 410.8 410.7 411.7 410.7 410.4 411.2 410.5 410.1 410.9 June 264.7 263.4 262.2 546.7 543.8 540.4 418.4 416.5 414.2 Quarters: 1973 1st. Q 2nd. Q 7.5 6.0 6.5 3.0 Jan, Feb. 7.0 9.0 6.0 8.0 Rates of Growth 8.5 8.0 7.0 5.5 7.5 3.5 5.0 6.5 10.0 8.0 10.0 7.0 13.0 -0.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 3.0 12.5 -1.0 12.6 -1.0 Months 10.5 8.5 Total Reserves Alt. A Alt, B Alt. C Alt. A RFD Alt, B Alt. C 31,354 31,354 31,354 28,933 28,933 28,933 Jan. Feb. Mar. 31,886 22,068 31,775 31,868 32,013 31,709 31,851 31,956 31,645 29,280 29,510 29,528 29,263 29,456 29,463 29,245 29,400 29,401 June 31,988 31,830 31,592 30,068 29,910 29,722 1972 Dec. Rates of Growth Quarters: 1973 4.5 1.5 1st Q. 2nd Q. 3.5 8.0 7.5 -0.5 7.5 6.0 6.5 4.5 14.5 9.5 13.5 8.0 13.0 6.5 Months Jan. Feb. 20.5 7.0 19.5 5.5 19.0 4.0 (9) Ranges of tolerance in RPD and the monetary aggregates for January-February have been reduced to two percentage points so as to provide a more precise indication of FOMC target paths from which deviations can be measured. Strict adherence to a relatively narrow RPD path may tend to lead to wider fluctuations in the Federal funds rate. However, clear and significant shifts in the multiplier between RPD and deposits could provide a basis for adjustment of the RPD path in the inter-meeting period, depending on Committee preferences. (10) Alternative B shown in paragraph (8) encompasses longer- run paths for the aggregates that include a 5--6 per cent annual rate of growth for M 1 , the longer-run target specified by the Committee at its last meeting. Alternative A provides for somewhat more rapid growth in the aggregates and alternative C for somewhat less. (11) The short-run ranges of tolerance for the monetary aggregates remain on the high side of longer-run targets. For example, in alternative B, the January-February M 1 growth is indicated at per cent, as compared with the 5--6 per cent longer-run target. It is expected that revenue sharing payments in January and the beginning of tax refunds next month will exert some temporary stimulus to growth in holdings of cash and time and savings deposits. (12) All of the alternatives shown indicate a slowing in the second quarter growth rate in M1 and M2 relative to the first quarter. This reflects mainly (a) disappearance of the transitory upward effect on M1 from sizable Treasury refunds of taxes and smaller final payments by -8individuals, (b) the lagged effect on money demand of past interest rate increases, and (c) in alternatives B and C, particularly, reduced public interest in time and savings deposits other than large CD's as short-term rates rise further above ceiling rates. (13) To achieve the aggregates of alternative B, the staff expects that money market conditions will tighten from around prevailing levels, given the continuing strong transaction demands for money implicit in the rapid growth in nominal GNP projected for the first and second quarters. The potential for money market tightening implied by the alternative B monetary target paths is indicated by the 5-5/8--6-1/4 per cent Federal funds rate range shown for that alternative. Even with RPD over the forthcoming January-February period rising in a 10--12 per cent annual rate range, we would expect the funds rate to move up to 6 per cent or somewhat above by the time of the next meeting. But it should be noted that even-keel considerations--discussed in paragraphs (16) and (17)--would suggest that the most propitious time for a rise in the funds rate, should one be required, is before the end of January. A rise in the funds rate of the dimensions contemplated in alternative B would likely be accompanied by a further rise in short-term rates generally, with the 3-month Treasury bill rate in particular moving upward in a 5-3/8--5-3/4 per cent range. (14) At such market rates, demand for member bank borrowings would be relatively strong, even with the discount rate at the recently announced 5 per cent level, and the level of borrowings might be around $1 billion on average. However, as borrowings continue large,many banks will wear -9out their welcome at the window and this will add further to pressure on open market rates and on banks to restrict acquisitions of loans and investments. (15) Efforts to achieve the reserve and monetary aggregates of alternative C are likely to entail an even greater firming of money market conditions, with the Federal funds rate probably moving well above 6 per cent by the time of the next meeting. The 3-month bill rate would likely rise into the 5-3/4--6 per cent area, if not by the time of the next meeting then by early March when additional cash borrowing through tax bill offerings may be anticipated. If short-term rates attain these levels, there may be a rather marked dampening in flows of consumertype time and savings deposits, which could eventually call into question the viability of current Regulation Q ceilings on such deposits. (16) If the Committee were to opt to restrain growth in reserves and monetary aggregates with the result that money market conditions firmed, even-keel considerations would again be a constraint on the timing of policy actions. Sufficient time has been given for distribution of the recent long-term bond offering so that it no longer appears to require special consideration. However, on January 31 the Treasury will announce terms for refunding $4.8 billion of publicly-held obligations that mature in mid-February. It is too early to have an idea as to the nature of the refunding, although it does seem unlikely at this point that new cash will need to be raised or that the Treasury will wish to offer another long bond so close to the recent offering. Thus, a relatively conventional exchange with short- and intermediate-term options seems most likely. -10- (17) However that may be, a significant tightening of the money market between late January and mid-February seems precluded if the Committee wishes to adhere to previous even-keel standards. Some slight upward drift in money market rates would not necessarily be ruled out, depending on the psychological atmosphere around the refunding, but the great bulk of any tightening, should it be required, would have to be accomplished within the next two weeks. (18) Alternative A indicates more expansive paths for the reserve and monetary aggregates which are not likely to entail any significant change in money market conditions from those recently prevailing; this alternative, therefore, has the greatest probability of minimizing conflicts between even-keel considerations and monetary objectives. The funds rate under such conditions is likely to be most frequently in the 5-3/8--5-7/8 per cent area. If the funds rate were to remain near the upper end of that band, the 3-month bill rate probably would be within a 5-1/4--5-1/2 per cent range over the next several weeks. Upward bill rate pressures could be moderated in the near-term, however, by demands for bills from State and local governments who have just received their January revenue-sharing distribution. In addition, apart from additions to the weekly and monthly bill auctions, the next sizable bill offering is not expected until early March, as noted earlier. -11- (19) Long-term interest rates may not rise very much under alternative A, but would probably show greater upward adjustments, at least in the short-run, under alternatives B and C. Demands on bond markets can be expected to be generally moderate this month and next. The near-term forward calendar of new corporate and municipal issues is relatively modest in size, although there are indications that the volume could build up in the spring. Mortgage market demands, though remaining large in volume, appear to have crested. Pressures on long- term rates are thus most likely to come from the supply side, as.banks and other institutional investors find that their inflows of funds are dropping off or becoming significantly more expensive--conditions most likely to develop under alternatives B and C. Bank interest in secur- ities and mortgages is likely to be lessened in any event as business loan demands continue strong, partly to help businesses finance the anticipated acceleration in the rate of inventory accumulation. (20) In addition to prospective credit flows, market psychol- ogy will have a particularly important bearing in interest rate developments in the period ahead. The forthcoming budget message, the progress of peace negotiations, and continuing evaluation of the new wage-price program are major factors that will affect investor attitudes. Also, market assessment of the likely course of monetary policy in the wake of the recent discount rate action will be an important influence. -12 Proposed directives (21) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which might be taken to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. In all three alternatives it is proposed to retain a reference to Treasury financing because of the regular February refinancing to be announced on January 31. Retention of the reference to credit market developments is suggested should the Committee wish to take account of the possibility of excessive market reaction to further increases in the funds rate, particularly in connection with alternatives B and C. The credit market reference could also encompass adverse reactions to the discount rate increase should they occur. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of THE operations] and possible credit FORTHCOMING Treasury financing [DEL: market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve slower] SOME MODERATION and money market conditions that will support [DEL: appears than OF growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead[DEL: for] indicated this] LAST year. FROM THE PACE IN the second half of [DEL: Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of THE FORTHCOMING Treasury financing [DEL: operations] and possible credit market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support slower growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than[DEL: indicated appears for] OCCURRED IN the second half of [DEL: this] LAST year. -13Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of THE operations] and possible credit FORTHCOMING Treasury financing [DEL: market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that will support CONSIDERABLY slower appears growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead than[DEL: for] indicated [DEL:LAST year. OCCURRED IN the second half of this] CHART 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL(FR) 1/12/73 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -133 -- 29 1972 --127 S 1971 D M J 1972 S D M J 1973 * Break in Series Actual Level of RPD After Reduction in Reserve Requirements Effective November 9, 1972 ** RPD Adjustea to Remove Discontinuity Introduced by Reduction in Reserve Requirements J 1973 CHART 2 STRCTLY CONFIDENTIAL FR) 1/12/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -1270 9% growth for Dec -Jan II I j BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 10% growth for Dec -Jan SI A J SO N 1972 1971 1972 1973 I ;< J 1973 CHART 3 S fRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 1/12/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -420 400 -380 -360 1971 *reak 1972 in series Actual Level of Total Reserv-e 1973 After Reductior in Reserve A equreements S Eftective O N 1972 0 November 9 1972 J '73 CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT INTEREST RATES Long-term r WFEKLY AVERAGES 1 -7 RESERVES RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -12 BORROWED - ! " lr\ II j UV NF T BORROWED I I I I I 1971 Ii I I I I I I I I I 1972 1 1973 1 ., 1971 1972 1973 1971 1972 1973 Table 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Bank Reserves Period 1972--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1973--Jan. 30,365 30,555 30,903 30,975 29,311 28,917 (29,282) Annual Rates of Change 1971--4th Qtr. 1972--lst 2nd 3rd 4th 1973--1st Reserves Available for Private Nonbank Deposits Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted Actual Actual and and Projected Projected (1) (M) Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1972--Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1973--Jan. Dec.-Jan. 1/ 30,166 30,253 30,615 30,844 29,370 29,207 (30,233) January 12, 1973 Aggregate Reserves Total Reserves (3) 33,138 33,382 33,360 33,788 31,839 31,354 (31,884) 4.8 2.2 10.8 7.1 10.0 11.2 (9.0) 10.1 12.8 3.6 14.3 (6.0) 8.8 -0.8 7.5 13.7 2.8 13.6 16.9 (15.0) (15.5) (FR) Required Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Time Nonborrowed Private and Reserves Demand Nondeposits (4) (6) (5) 32,924 33,016 32,802 33,205 31,188 30,212 (30,871) U.S. Gov't. and Interbank (7) 21,052 21,131 21,306 21,248 19,396 18,949 (19,166) 9,722 2,774 2,826 2,457 2,813 2,529 2,437 (9,893) (2,602) 9,136 9,249 9,408 9,491 9,572 0.5 16.4 11.0 13.0 -2.0 7.4 (10.5) 6.8 4.0 8.3 8.8 (6.5) 18.0 14.2 15.4 13.4 (15.0) 3.4 4.5 9.9 -3.3 9.2 21.5 (13.5) (17.0) 14.8 20.6 10.6 10.2 18.8 (21.0) (20.0) 2,770 2,934 2,917 6.8 15.4 11.4 15.7 -7.8 14.7 9.1 -1.7 (20.5) (17.0) (26.0) (11.0) 33,340 33,368 33,481 33,090 33,544 33,014 33,124 33,125 32,750 33,043 21,149 21,118 21,066 21,048 21,264 9,176 9,217 9,244 9,253 9,293 32,938 32, 617 32,586 32,815 21,285 21,277 21,414 21,249 9,331 9,412 9,417 9,445 2,378 2,308 2,345 2,604 weekly: 2 9 16 23 30 30,570 30,434 30,563 30,278 30,822 30,373 30,075 30,421 6 13 20 27 31,397 30,457 31,025 30,791S 30,869 30,104 30,763 30,644 33,775 32,765 33,370 33,398 4 11 18 25 30,925 31,099 30,772 31,076 30,890 30,661 30,891 30,771 33,806 33,828 33,802 33,764 33,379 33,276 33,388 32,837 21,293 21,230 21,241 21,258 9,443 9,461 9,505 9,492 2,882 1 8 15 22 29 30,984 30,991 29,203 28,118 28,749 31,056 33,741 33,788 31,966 30,630 30,790 33,141 32,742 31,474 30,147 21,236 21,320 18,998 18,247 18,826 9,539 9,555 2,757 30,870 29,512 28,136 28,806 9,554 9,576 9,598 2,763 2,512 6 13 20 2-7 28,904 28,684 29,038 28,855 28,774 28,788 29,205 29,426 31,225 31,197 31/4 22 31,414 30,594 9,656 9,674 2,320 29,979 30,345 18,913 18,792 19,046 18,922 3 10 29,238 29,037 30,214 29,795 31,601 31,307 29,565 30,442 19,156 19,143 9,846 9,894 1972--Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1973--Jan. _______________ _____________ 30,027 30,368 1_______________ 30,185 30,290 i__________________I__________________________ NGTE: Data shoum in parentheses are current projections. At the FOMC eeting December 19, 1972 the Comitttee agreed on an RPD range of 4 to UL per cent. I/ 9,710 9,769 2,812 2,722 2,728 3,029 2,688 2,796 2,041 2,512 2,384 2,559 2,363 2.271 2,271 Table 2 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Monetary Aggregates (Actual and current projections, seasonally adjusted) Period Narrow Money Supply (M1 ) Money Broad Money Supply (M2) Honey~~'^ Adjusted Credit Proxy Crdt (3) (1) January 12, 1973 U.S. Govt. Deposits Gv. Total Time and Savings n Tm (4) (5) (6) (7) 293.7 297.1 300.5 303.4 305.9 311.2 (315.3) 255.6 257.7 260.2 262.7 264.6 267.5 (270.9) 38.1 39.3 40.3 40.7 41.3 43.7 (44.4) Time deposits other than te CD's Negotiable CD's eoibe Nondeposit Sources of Funds Sucso Monthly Pattern ii n Billions o ' Dollars 1972--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1973--Jan. 239.4 240.5 241.6 242.3 243.6 246.8 (248.2) 495.0 498.3 501.8 505.0 508.2 514.4 (519.1) 386.3 389.3 392.6 395.5 399.4 404.2 (408.2) Annual Percentage Rates of Ch inge--Quarter 1971--4th Qtr. 1972--lst 2nd 3rd 4th 1973--1st Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 1972--Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1973--an. Dec.-Jan. 5.3 4.6 5.3 6.1 7.8 6.5 (6.6) and Monthly 1.1 8.0 9.7 15.9 14.7 9.3 5.3 8.5 8.6 (7.5) 13.3 8.6 9.3 10.0 (8.5) 11.3 11.1 10.7 11.8 (5.5) 14.8 15.7 13.2 14.2 (12.0) 17.1 11.8 10.1 11.2 (10.0) 5.5 5.5 3.5 6.4 15.8 (7.0) 8.0 8.4 7.7 7.6 14.6 (11.0) (13.0) 9.3 10.2 8.9 11.8 74.4 (12.0) (13.0) 13.9 13.7 11.6 9.9 20.8 (16.0) .... ........ (18.5) 9.9 11.6 11.5 8.7 13.2 (15.5) (14.5) (11.5) ........... . ........... ........... ......... Weekly Pattern in Billions of Dollars 1972--Aug. 2 9 16 23 30 239.7 240.1 240.9 240.5 241.2 496.2 497.1 498.6 498.3 499.8 387.5 388.2 389.8 388.7 390.1 295.1 295.6 296.5 297.6 298.9 254.5 257.0 257.7 257.8 258.5 Sept.6 13 20 27 242.6 241.5 241.6 241.1 502.2 501.2 501.6 501.5 390.9 391.9 393.2 392.4 299.4 300.1 300.3 301.2 259.6 259.8 259.9 260.4 Oct. 4 11 18 25 241.8 242.7 242.2 242.3 504.0 504.8 504.9 505.4 395.1 394.0 394.6 396.3 302.6 302.6 303.8 304.1 262.2 262.1 262.7 263.0 Nov. 1 8 15 22 29 242.1 242.7 244.3 244.3 242.8 505.4 506.0 508.5 509.4 508.3 397.5 397.7 396.6 400.4 401.0 303. 9 304.4 305.1 306.7 307.3 263.4 263.3 264.3 265.1 265.5 Dec. 6 13 20 27 p 246.1 245.6 246.0 248.5 512.2 512.0 513.6 517.2 402.8 403.3 403.0 404.5 308.5 309.8 311.9 313.4 266.1 266.4 267.6 268.7 246.8 245.3 516.9 515.0 408.3 407.0 313.3 313.7 270.1 269.7 1973--Jan. 3 p 10 pe NOTES: J Ne 1 -- Data shown in parentheses are current projections. Annual rates of change other than those for the past are rounded to nearest half per cent. pe - rartlally eslimaceo. 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.4 (4.4) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 12, 1973 Table 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) . ftalthly 1972 - July Aug. ____ Bills & Accept. (1) -543 -906 Open Market Operations 1/ Coupon Agency RPs 3 / Issues Issues Net (2) (3) (4) Totl (5) Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Open Market AMember Other 4/ Factors Operations Bank Borrowing (6) (7) (8) -116 -26 - 3 -816 -570 22 463 -238 108 237 Sept. -158 -- -35 -816 -1,009 -1,617 Oct. Nov. 111 -548 450 116 -51 -135 -22 157 134 --147 205 442 596 1,124 Dec. - - 2 26 p 32 p - Ain resere. categpries req. res. against available res. 5/ U.S.G. and interb. (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) (9) (10) Target available5/ reserves (11) 89 135 145 - 60 337 194 76 360 100 1,370 -403 232 405 59 32p 44 4p - 378 -1,7 6 6 p - 93 9 p 485 -478p -198p 320 -1,483p - 329p 1973 - Jan. 335 -1,520 - 300 815 Feb. Weekly Nov. 1 8 15 22 29 - 75 - 3 - 26 -415 -105 ---51 --- - 9 --166 -- -1,028 1,084 -3,311 2,259 - 694 -1,111 1,081 -3,389 2,010 - 799 117 600 -599 -307 -219 -210 404 -465 - 75 153 242 -1,014 - 498 -1,211 255 -136 176 -204 -217 -481 285 -186 -1,358 -1,376 670 Dec. 6 13 20 27 229 288 - 42 -294 ---135 -- --14 -149 193 1,939 -1,325 -1,772 422 2,213 -1,502 -1,918 671 -428 507p -790p 17 216 41 6 p -101p - 407 271 - 583p 1,020p 313 45 - 7 7p - 94p - Jan. 3 10 17 24 31 514 152 -- -- -- -- 3,680 -2,375 4,194 -2,223 1,145p -150p 631p -1,060p -770p -1,106p 396p 141p 32 14 4 17p 223p 610 -245p Representa change in Syste's portfollo from end-of-period to end-of-peri6d; includes redemption in regular bill auctions I 2/ Represents change in daily average level from preceding period. 31 Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. 1/ Suf of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other FR accounts. 5/ Reserves to support private nObank deposits. Target change for December and January reflects the mid-point of the target range adopted at the Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with the mid-points of target December 19, 1972 FOMC meeting. ranges that were adopted during the month. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 12, 1973 Table 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK RESERVES Millions of Dollars U.S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Bills " Coupon Issues Period Other Security Dealer Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds Bonds (3) (4) Excess Reserves (5) Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowings Net Free Basic Reserve Deficit at FRB Reserves w YoiC 38 Other (6) (7) (8) (9) (1) (2) 1971 -- High Low 4,733 1,350 2,834 343 337 0 556 30 590 - 61 1,180 84 202 -988 -4,714 -1,545 -5,499 -2,569 1972 -- High Low 4,291 1,916 1,585 - 93 235 0 383 40 796 -133 1,223 12 380 -1,070 -5,635 -1,638 -5,720 -1,910 1971 -- Dec. 2,544 1,761 170 251 165 107 50 -2,791 -4,375 1972 -- Jan. Feb. Mar. 3,004 2,408 3,489 1,416 1,176 604 135 149 101 206 136 185 173 124 249 20 33 99 153 91 150 -2,667 -3,203 -3,208 -4,192 -3,072 -3,522 Apr. May June 2,612 2,792 2,694 274 675 205 46 123 87 99 134 260 136 104 204 109 119 94 27 - 15 110 -3,026 -2,625 -2,828 -3,299 -2,652 -2,864 July Aug. Sept. 2,262 2,643 4,099 97 692 170 142 114 53 166 176 174 147 255 162 202 438 514 - 55 -183 -352 -2,945 -3,913 -3,835 -2,603 -2,801 -4,024 2,887 3,096 *3,510 207 1,039 * 953 105 84 58 132 191 291 247 314 200p 6 06 p 1,050p -292 -850p -3,637 -4,561 -4,977 -4,044 -3,622 -4,958 Oct. Nov. Dec. 1972 -- 1973 -- Notes: 574 Nov. 1 8 15 22 29 3,114 2,520 2,531 3,116 4,158 328 1,095 1,117 1,079 1,001 0 31 36 121 174 173 254 126 136 249 205 124 786 189 340 555 959 494 419 572 -350 -835 292 -230 -232 -3,272 -4,475 -4,902 -4,727 -4,329 -3,225 -3,676 -3,707 -3,281 -3,709 Dec. 6 13 29 27 3,899 3,564 *3,114 *3,520 938 975 * 849 *1,107 85 108 19 19 322 383 260 197 336 244 206 2 57p 589 805 1,221 1,120p -253 -561 -1,015 - 86 3 p -4,233 -5,602 -4,899 -4,781 -4,415 -4,647 -5,476 -5,445 Jan. 3 10 17 24 31 *3,718 *3,212 * * 19 115p 142r 1OOp 486p 6 0p 1,751p 6 91p -1,26 5p - 6 31p -5,001p -5,31 6 p -4,338p -5,899p 871 843 Government Security aealer trading positions are on a commitment oasis. tracing positions, wnicn exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions are debt issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which.are Friday figures. *STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL (FR) JANUARY 12, 1973 Table 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per cent Periods Federal Funds Tasur bls 90-day 1-year Long-term________ _ Short-term 90 9da Pper 90-CDsdy Prime-NYC New Issue Aaa Utility* (10-Yr. onstant Maturty Municipal Bond Buyer ti Yelds (5) (3) 1971 -- High Low 5.73 3.29 5.47 3.32 5.94 3.53 5.88 4.00 5.75 3.63 8.26 7.02 6.23 4.97 6.89 5.42 8.07 7.32 1972 -- High Low 5.38 3.18 5.13 3.03 5.52 3.60 5.50 3.75 5.50 3.50 7.60 6.99 5.54 4.96 6.58 5.87 7.72 7.54 1971 -- Dec. 4.14 4.01 4.40 4.66 4.58 7.28 5.21 5.93 7.62 1972 -- Jan. Feb. Mar. 3.50 3.29 3.83 3.38 3.20 3.73 3.82 4.06 4.43 4.03 3.81 4.10 3.81 3.53 3.98 7.21 7.34 7.24 5.12 5.29 5.31 5.95 6.08 6.07 7.61 7.61 7.55 Apr. May June 4.17 4.27 4.46 3.71 3.69 3.91 4.65 4.46 4.71 4.55 4.45 4.60 4.47 4.33 4.50 7.45 7.38 7.32 5.43 5.31 5.34 6.19 6.13 6.11 7.58 7.63 7.62 July Aug. 4.55 4.80 4.87 3.98 4.02 4.66 4.90 4.90 5.44 4.83 4.75 5.07 4.75 4.78 5.00 7.38 7.37 7.40 5.41 5.30 5.36 6.11 6.21 6.55 7.62 7.63 7.64 5.04 5.06 5.33 4.74 4.78 5.07 5.39 5.20 5.28 5.21 5.18 5.40 5.19 5.13 5.38 7.38 -- Nov. 1 8 15 22 29 5.06 5.25 4.89 4.97 5.03 4.74 4.71 4.74 4.79 4.87 5.34 5.17 5.18 5.17 5.26 5.15 5.13 5.13 5.23 5.25 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13 7.27 5.19 5.02 5.05 5.04 5.10 5.01 4.96 4.99 6.48 6.28 6.36 6.37 6.29 6.25 6.26 6.29 7.71 7.70 7.67 7.72 Dec. 6 13 20 27 5.17 5.29 5.38 5.34 4.94 5.05 5.12 5.13 5.25 5.27 5.21 5.31 5.28 5.28 5.45 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.38 5.50 7.15 7.21 4.96 5.03 5.10 5.11 6.31 6.35 6.40 6.40 1973 -- Jan. 3 5.61 5.66 5.16 5.15 5.45 5.42 5.63 5.63 5.50 5.63 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1972 10 7.09 7.15 7.12 6.99 7.05 7.25 6.42 6.42p :089 7.71 7.69 7.67 7.67 7.68 " Notes: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Column 5 is a one-day Wednesday quote. For columns 6 and 8 the weekly data is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 7 is a one-day quote for the Thursday following the end of the statement week. Column 9 gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the implicit yield in weekly or bi-weekly auction for short-term f6rward com itments for Government underwritten mwortgages. *New series--Corporate New Issues Aaa series discontinued. Appendix Table I CONFIDENTIAL (FR) RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES Res erves Period Total (1) Wonborrowed (2) .. ,.. Available to Support Pt. __ Pepasits 1 (1) O) Annually1 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Stsi-Annually7 l t Ralf 1970 2nd Half 1970 +7.6 -1.2 -6.0 +7 3 -10 .6 -5.6 -2.7 +9.2 +80 +7 5 . Mne January 12, 1973 I Stockt Measures Bank Credit Measures Adjusted Total Credit Loans and 1 2 3 rr Investments (8) (A) (5) 1 (6) (7) (Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) +8.6 -2.17 +8.1 +7 8 +10.1 +7.8 +3.2 +5.6 46 2 +8.2 +9.3 +2.3 +8.1 +1 1 +10.7 +8 3 +7.8 +7.8 +13.3 +12.8 *9.7 +0.6 +8.3 +9 5 +11.7 +11.0 +3.9 +8.1 +11.3 414.0 +5.2 +10.8 +11.5 +10.6 TItal Tmea (9) Other Thrift Institution Oeposit Time Other than C's (1 U.. hdpeosit eav't. C's (1) (Dolla I (13) - ( 4) bsilnge in U Illiton) +13.2 +6.4 +3.4 +7.7 +17 5 +16.4 +2.4 -12.6 +14.5 +7.9 +10.2 +2.6 +13 ? -8.4 -7.6 +0.4 -0.1 +0.3 +1.1 -0.3 +0 3 +22.3 ;+12 2 +15.6 +21.2 +10.1 +4.7 +10.6 +20.1 411.5 +2.6 +11.9 +3.9 +4.1 +0.7 -9.1 -7.1 -0 4 +0.4 +0.7 -2.1 +1 8 +11.3 -4.9 +17.9 S+417.9 +1%.3 +11.o +3.0 +15.2 +9.3 +6.5 +5.2 +10.6 +10.9 44.6 +5.6 45.2 +10.0 +42.4 +5.8 +10.1 +15.5 46.3 +5.0 +10 3 lat Half 1971 2nd Half 1971 +0 4 +11.6 +9.6 44.T +8.8 -+4.8 +11 4 +9 7 48 8 lat Half 1972 1972 lf +11.6 +9.0 +12.1 +2.7 +9.0 +10.7 +7.4 +8.6 +11.1 +9.8 +13.4 +11 5 +11.3 +11 4 +15 . +15.6 +14 0 +14.7 +10.8 +17.9 +14 0 +3.7 +6.6 -0.3 +0.6 -0.8 +1.1 +8.9 +10.0 +7.2 +2.2 *+F I +12.8 +3.6 414.3 +9.5 +9.0 +6.0 +6.8 +11.0 +13.0 -2.0 +7 4 +10.8 +10.6 +4.3 +4.8 +10.8 +7.1 +10.0 +11 2 +9.1 +10.6 +3.7 +1.1 +9.3 +5.3 +8.5 +8 6 +18.1 +12.4 4.4 +8.0 +13 3 +8.6 +9.3 410 0 +18.9 +14.4 +7.8 +9.6 +15 5 +10.8 +11. 6 4110 +10.9 +8.4 +7.6 +9.7 +11.3 +11.1 10.7 +11 8 +12.3 +10.3 +9.7 +11.1 +15.7 +9.5 +13.6 414 4 +28.8 +14.7 +8.2 +15.9 +14.8 +15.7 +13.2 +14 2 +27.5 +14.0 +5.3 +14.7 +17.1 +*11.B +10.1 +11.2 421.9 +17.3 +13.7 +12.8 +20.5 +14.5 +15.7 +11.9 +2.8 +1.3 +2.3 +1.8 -0.1 +3.7 +3.2 +3.3 -4.6 -2.6 -0.4 -2.4 +0.3 +2.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 July Aug. Sept. Oct. nov. Dec +4.4 +4.1 +12 9 -7 4 +3.4 +10.7 -7.6 +2.8 +22.9 -2.8 +42.0 +21.4 44.8 +6.9 -0.8 +3.6 +5.9 +10.1 +3.2 -2.1 +0.5 +7.5 +2.9 +2.9 +7.1 +6.5 +10.2 +10.5 46.6 46.2 +9.1 +8.7 +11.0 +10.7 +44 +7.9 +4.8 +11.2 +13 1 +6.2 +11.9 +10.9 +11.9 +6.2 +14.9 +9.4 +4.2 +10.7 +17.1 +9.1 +20.8 +4.8 +3.2 47.9 +13.7 +13.0 +17.0 +16.7 +10.3 +13.8 +13.0 +11.4 +13.7 +1.1 +0.4 +0.8 +1.1 -0.5 +1.2 -0.2 -0.4 +0.1 40,8 +0.5 -1.3 +0.8 +0.6 +0.9 -1.9 +0.7 +0.8 Jan. Feb. Mar Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. lOct. +20.2 -5.9 +15.8 +22.9 +6.9 +8.6 +2.9 +8.8 -0.8 +15.4 +11.4 +1 55 +23.1 -3.6 +13.3 +22.2 +73 48.8 -1.6 +3.4 -7.8 +14.7 + 9.1 -1.7 +9 2 +7.4 +15.6 +7.0 +6.2 47 9 +8.6 +7.5 +13.7 +2.8 +13.6 +16.9 +13.4 +14.3 +11.6 +7.2 +7.7 10.6 1 +11.3 I +8.0 +8.4 +7.7 +7.6 +14 6 +15.6 +16.7 +13.8 410.9 +9.7 +11 5 +13.5 +10.7 +10.6 +10.4 +9.1 +13 3 +9.9 +5.9 +17.7 +13.5 +14.7 +4 7 +12.2 +9 3 +10 2 +8.9 +11.8 +14 4 +14.2 +12.4 +19.9 +5.4 +70.0 +2.3 +10.2 +18.3 +11 9 +11.4 +20.6 +10.7 +20.0 +16.2 +7.8 +12.4 +17.8 +16.3 +11.6 +13.9 +13 7 +24.4 +15.4 +10.8 +7.8 +17.6 +14.8 +8.5 +9 9 +1l 6 +11.5 +8.7 +13.2 +23.9 +17.6 +19.0 +15.& +10.6 +16.6 +18.3 +12.3 +15.8 +13.5 +11.0 +10.9 -0.2 +0.6 -0.4 +1.3 +1.6 +0.8 +1.0 +1.2 +1.0 +9.4 +0.6 +2 3 -0.1 -0.3 +0.1 -0.2 +0.2 +6.1 tlt 2r 3rd 46t 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1971: 1972: Otr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. t. 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 Nov. Dec p -- 44.8 +2.6 +3.2 +12.6 +11.9 +7.7 +7.6 +5.6 +14.2 +5.5 +5.5 +3.5 +6.4 +15.0 +17.0 -- _________- WOM-Reserve requirements af Erredollar borrowving Oetober 1- 1970. are included Beginning betober 16, +8.4 +26.3 +11.8 +9.9 +20.8 --- ' I ~ -0.8 -- +0.3 +0 3 +1 1 -2.6 +2.4 +1.3 -2.1 +0.1 +0.3 -0 1 +0.2 -0.7 +0.7 +0.7 +1.8 -1 4 +0.1 '- 1969, and requirements on benk-related conmerctal paper are included beginning Appendix Table II CONFIDENTIAL(FR) RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES (SeAsonally adjusted, billions of dollars) _I Period Reserves Total (1) Money Stock I Availahle to NonSupport Pot horrowed peposits (3) (2) 1 total (E) P Pvt..De (5) esaares N2 I I(6) Other Bank Credit Measurca (7) Credit Proxy (8) 3 January 12, 1973 Total Time Loans and Total Other than Cn's I1 Inves atn t1 TT'~~ 4 (10) 1~~0 (11) (9) Thrift Institution n nnat, I (12) (13) (14) -- ' Cu B Non Deposit ,uje... JF ndlu .1 Anially Ser 1965 ecr 1969 Dec 1970 27 249 26 471 27 977 26.829 29 132 28.764 24.963 25.245 26.747 1917.4 203.7 214.8 154.0 157.7 165.8 378.0 368.8 418.2 572.6 588.3 634.0 304.6 105.4 330.6 390.6 406.0 438.9 204.2 194.1 228.9 180.6 183.2 203.4 194.6 201.5 215.8 23.6 11.0 25.5 7.0 20.0 11.6 Monthly 1971--Tan Feh Mar 29 390 29.600 29.779 28 958 29.240 29.445 26 930 27.132 27.470 215.3 217.7 219.7 166 0 168.0 169.7 423.1 430.4 437.1 642.2 653.4 663.9 333 4 336.7 339.6 443.6 449.0 452.4 234.4 240.2 245.4 207.8 212.7 217.4 219.2 223.0 226.8 26.6 27.5 28.1 10.1 8.6 7.0 Apr Mav Tunr 29.991 10.327 30 527 29.859 30.106 30 106 27.735 27.935 28.199 221.2 223.8 225 5 170.7 173.0 174.5 441.5 446.6 450.6 672.5 681.0 687.8 342.0 344.5 346.7 455.2 458.9 464.1 248.1 251.3 254.4 220.3 222.8 225.0 231.0 234.4 237.2 27.8 28.5 29.4 5.1 4.1 4.5 Julv Sept 30 639 29.915 30.763 29.985 31 073 30.556 28.358 28 521 28.503 227 4 228.0 227.6 175.8 176.3 175.5 453.4 454.5 455.6 693.8 697.6 701.2 349.8 351 0 353.3 466.5 471 1 475.4 256.4 257.3 259.6 225.9 226.5 228.0 240.4 243.1 245.6 30.4 30.8 31.6 4.3 3.9 4.1 Oct Nov Dec 30 882 30.970 31.246 30.485 10.535 31.079 28.588 28.728 28 841 227.7 227.7 228.2 175.5 175.5 175.7 458.3 460.8 464 7 706.5 711.6 718.1 354.7 358.0 361.9 480.1 482.6 488.6 263.3 265.3 269.9 230.6 233.1 236.4 248.3 250.8 253.4 32.7 32.2 33.4 4.8 5.4 4.0 an Feb Mar 31 772 31.678 31.616 31.582 32.032 31.931 29.064 29.244 29 625 228.8 231.2 233.5 176.0 178.0 179.9 469.9 475 5 480.1 727.3 737.4 745.9 364.9 366.7 372.1 494.4 499.5 507.8 274.4 278. 1 279.9 241.2 244.3 246 5 257.4 261,8 265.8 33.2 33.8 33.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 Apr Hay Taun 32.643 32 830 33.059 32 525 32 728 32 967 29.798 29.951 10 148 235.0 235.5 236 6 180.9 181.1 181 9 483.0 486.1 490 4 752.7 758.8 766.1 376.3 380.9 382.4 510.1 518.6 519 8 282.8 287.0 290.9 248.1 250.7 253.8 269.7 272.6 275.7 34.7 36.3 37.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 Tolv Aug Sept 33 138 33.382 33.360 32 924 33 016 32.802 30.365 30.555 30,903 239.4 240.5 241.6 184.5 185.5 186.1 495 0 498.3 501.8 774.7 781.6 788 4 386.3 389.3 392. 6 524.2 532.2 537.5 293.7 297.1 300.5 255.6 257.7 260.2 279.7 283.3 286.6 38.1 39.3 40.3 39 4.2 4.1 30.975 29.311 28.917 242.3 243.6 246 8 186.5 187.3 190.0 505.0 508 2 514.4 795.2 801.2 810.1 395.5 399.4 404.2 542.6 551.9 556.8 303.6 305.9 311.2 262.7 264.1 267.5 290. 1 293.1 295.8 40.7 41.3 43.7 4 3 4.3 4.4 502.2 501 2 501 6 501.5 390.9 391.9 393.2 392 4 299.4 300.1 300.3 301.2 259.6 259 8 259.9 260.4 39 7 40.4 40.3 40.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 Aule 1972-- Oct p 33.788 33 205 11 839 31.1 P 31.354 30.212 6 13 20 27 33.775 32 765 33 370 33 398 32.938 32.617 32.586 32.815 31.397 30.457 31.025 30.794 242.6 241.5 241.6 241 1 187 186 186 185 4 11 15 25 33 806 33 828 33 802 33.764 33.379 33 276 33.388 32.837 30 925 31 099 30 772 31.076 241.8 242 7 242,2 242,3 186 3 186 8 186.3 186.3 504.0 504.8 504.9 505.4 395.1 394.0 394.6 396.3 302.6 302.6 303.8 304.1 262.2 262.1 262.7 263.0 40.4 40.5 41.0 41.0 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.5 Nov 1 8 15 22 29 33.741 33 788 31.966 10 630 30.790 33 141 32.742 31.474 30.147 30.185 30 984 30.991 29. 203 28. 118 28 749 242.1 242.7 244 3 244 3 242.8 186,2 186.5 188. 0 187.8 186 4 505.4 506.0 508.5 509.4 508.3 397.5 397.7 396.6 400.4 401 0 303.9 304.4 305.1 306.7 307.3 40.6 41.1 40.8 41.6 41.8 4.6 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 poc 6 13 20 27 ( 31 11 31 11 30 30 29 30 28 901 2B 6P4 29.038 28 855 246.1 245 6 246 0 248 5 189 7 188 8 189 0 191 5 512 512 513 517 402.8 403 3 403 0 404 5 308.5 309 8 311 9 313 4 263.4 263.3 264.3 265.1 265.5 266.1 266 4 267.6 268 7 42.4 43 5 44 3 44 7 4.4 4 2 4 4 4 6 Tin 3 p 29.138 246.8 190.3 516.9 408.3 313.3 270.1 43.2 4.4 vov Dec 1972--Sept Otr 225 197 422 414 31.601 594 290 979 345 29.565 3 0 1 5 2 0 6 2 U S Gov't _ .... ueumao (15) '-" Reserve requirements on Euro-dollar borrowing9 are Included helinnlng October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginlftng shbject to reserve requirefents, bank-related conmemrciapaper, and Euro-dbllar Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member hank depoost Oetbher 1 1970 Weekly data are daily averages for statement weekt Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank confercial paper figures which borrowings of U S banks are for lest day of month Weekly data are not available for 3 , total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits p - Preliminary 1WnF _ Appendix A REVISIONS IN THE M1 SERIES The narrow money stock series--M1 has been revised to reflect: (1) (2) (3) (4) benchmark adjustments for domestic nonmember banks; benchmark adjustments to incorporate additional international banking institutions; the impact of the revised regulation J; and new seasonal factors. These revisions will be described below. It should be noted, however, that the revised M 1 series, as well as revisions in the other aggregates, will not be released to the public until early February because final revisions to credit proxy and reserve series are as yet incomplete. Beginning January 19, data supplied for internal System purposes only will include the new M1 and M2 series, as well as other revised series as they are completed. Thus, for approximately two weeks the Committee will be receiving revised data while public releases will show the series on the present basis. The revised series will be supplied to the public in a press release, with detailed technical explanations provided in the Federal Reserve Bulletin for February. SEASONAL FACTORS The seasonal factor revisions, incorporating the effect of 1972 developments, are minor. No changes were made in seasonal factors for January, March, or any month in the second quarter for the demand deposit component seasonal factors. The seasonal factors for each month in the third quarter were raised slightly, reducing the level of the seasonally adjusted series, and the factors for February and each month in the fourth quarter were reduced somewhat. Minor changes also occurred in the seasonal factors for currency. In general, these were raised for the second and third quarter months and lowered for the first and fourth quarter months. For 1972 data, the seasonal adjustment revision alone reduces the third quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate of growt of M1 by 0.2 percentage points and increases the fourth quarter growth rate by 0.8 percentage points. In no month are annual rates of growth changed by more than 2.0 percentage points (annual rate) by the new seasonal factors taken alone. LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS Other adjustments significantly increase the level of the M1 series back to 1959. The amount of the level adjustment is $300 million in 1959 and increases to $9.5 billion at the end of 1972. Appendix Chart 1 compares the level of the old and new seasonally adjusted series weekly for 1971-72. Appendix Table A-1 displays the components of the level adjustment for three recent dates. Benchmark revisions for domestic banks. M1 estimates are based initially on member bank data with estimates made for nonmember banks based on historical relationships between country member banks and nonmember banks. These nonmember estimates are then revised when call report data become available. Based on December 1971 and June 1972 call report information, the past relationship between nonmember and country bank data (deposits and vault cash) did not hold in the first half of 1972, leading to an underestimation of M1 growth at nonmember banks over the year ending in June 1972, and probably in the second half of 1972 as well. As shown in Appendix Table 1, the level of M 1 has been increased by about $1 billion at the end of 1971 and by $1.9 billion at the end of 1972. Foreign Banking Institutions. In December 1970, the M 1 series was revised to incorporate the impact of foreign banking institutions operating in the U.S. This adjustment eliminated the overstatement of associated with the clearings of these cash items (understatement of M1) type balances to the money supply series. banks and also added their M 1 York City institutions were not available. At that time, data for a few New The new series now incorporates the impact of these institutions on the M1 series. As shown in Appendix Table A-l, this revision increases the narrow money stock by about $3 billion in 1972, and by lesser amounts back to 1959. Regulation J revisions. Prior to the November 9 revision of Regulation J, the M1 series had been biased downward by the timing of bank payment for Federal Reserve cash letters. This downward bias was eliminated by the revision in Regulation J which reduced cash items and float, two items deducted from gross demand deposits in the calculation of M1. Since Regulation J went into effect, the staff has been adjusting M1 data to remove the effect of the regulatory-induced changes in cash items and float. The new series uses actual data after November 9 but reduces cash items and float prior to November 9 to remote a one time break in M1 associated with the change in Regulation J. This adjustment has been carried back to 1959. PRELIMINARY Appendix Table A-1 Components of Revision in M1 Not Seasonally Adjusted (Millions of dollars) Dec. 1971 June 1972 Dec. 1972 985 1,633 1,695 2,795 2,887 3,024 4, 4,396 4.487 8,248 8,916 9,206 Benchmark Domestic nonmember banksl/ Foreign institutions/ Regulation J/ Total 1/ Includes benchmark adjustment for nonmember bank demand deposits liabilities and holdings of vault cash, based on December, 1971 and June, 1972 Call Reports of condition. 2/ Adjustment for overstatement of cash items associated with clearance of checks for a few New York City foreign banking operations and the addition of M1-type liabilities for these institutions. 3/ Adjustment for cash items and float reduction resulting from amended Regulation J. Actual data after November 9, 1972 and estimated from reserve bank data prior to November 9, 1972. The Regulation J increase in the level of M1 is estimated to be about $500 million in December 1959, growing to about $4.5 billion in 1972, as shown in Appendix Table A-1. This adjustment adds an average about .1 percentage point per year to the growth in M 1 since 1959. ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE While the level of M is raised $8 - $9 billion in 1972, and less for previous years, the combined effect of the level adjustments and new seasonal factors on annual rates of change are small. Comparison of rates of change in the old and new series for recent periods is shown in Appendix Table A-2. For annual data, the biggest recent changes occur in 1970 and 1971, which are raised by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively. Semi-annual growth rates for 1972 are changed little, but the second half of 1971 is raised by 1.0 percentage point. In 1972, quarterly growth rates are lowered slightly in the first and third quarters and raised in the second and fourth quarters. The fourth quarter of 1971 is raised significantly. Changes in the 1972 monthly pattern are shown in the right panel of Appendix Table A-2. Three months--February, September, and October-are increased by more than 2 percentage points at an annual rate. Reduction exceeding 2 percentage points occurred in January, July, August, and December. Finally, for the December-January period the staff's projected M 1 growth is 11-1/2 per cent (annual rate) on the old basis and 10 per cent (annual rate) in the new series. PRELIMINARY Appendix Table A-2 Comparison of Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates of Growth of M1 Old and Revised Series Old Revised Difference Annual : 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 7.8 3.2 5.4 6.2 8.2 7.8 3.6 6.0 6.9 8.2 0 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.0 Semi-annual: 1970-1 II 5.6 5.2 6.1 5.7 1971-1 II 10.0 2.4 10.1 3.4 0. 1 1.0 7.4 8.6 7.6 8.6 0. 2 0.0 9.1 10.6 3.7 1. 1 8.9 11. 1 4.1 2.7 -0.2 0.5 0.4 1.6 9.3 9.1 6.0 8.1 8.8 -0.2 0.7 -0.4 0.2 1972-I II Quarterly: 1971-1 II III IV 1972-I II III IV 5.3 8.5 8.6 Dif- Monthly: 1971-Oct. Nov. Dec. Old Revised 0.5 0 2.6 4.1 1.5 2.5 ference 3.6 1.5 -0.1 1972-Jan. Feb. 3.2 12.6 1.0 15.2 -2.2 2.6 Mar. 11.9 11.0 -0.9 Apr. May June 7.7 2.6 5.6 6.9 4.4 6.4 -0.8 1.8 0.8 July Aug. Sept. 14.2 5.5 5.5 12.2 3.4 8.7 -2.0 -2.1 3.2 Oct. Nov. Dec. 3.5 6.4 15.8 7.2 5.7 13.3 3.7 -0.7 -2.5 1973-Jan. pe (Memo: Dec., 7.0 1972-Jan., 11.5 0.0 7.0 19 73 10.0 )Pe -1.5 APPENDIX CHART 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 1/12/73 TOTAL MONEY STOCK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS REVISED SERIES OLD SERIES 1971 1972 1973
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