The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Prefatory Note The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some imperfections may remain. Please note that some material may have been redacted from this document if that material was received on a confidential basis. Redacted material is indicated by occasional gaps in the text or by gray boxes around non-text content. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable provisions of the Freedom of Information Act. 1 In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial printing). 2 A two-step process was used. An advanced optical character recognition computer program (OCR) first created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff. Content last modified 6/05/2009. February 2, 1968. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MONEY MARKET AND RESERVE RELATIONSHIPS Recent developments Key monetary variables have behaved in disparate ways since the last meeting of the Committee--some in line with expectations, some at the outer edge of expectations, and some unexpectedly. During the last three statement weeks in January, the Federal funds rate averaged a shade above 4-5/8 per cent, member bank borrowings averaged $233 million, and new dealer loan rates were around 4-3/4-4-7/8 per cent--all well within anticipated ranges and indicative of firmer money market conditions associated in part with the rise in reserve requirements effective mid-January. Consistent with these conditions, net free reserves were noticeably lower than in the weeks before the previous meeting, and averaged $35 million over the period, near the lower end of the anticipated zero to $100 million range. This average included a net borrowed reserve figure of $70 million published for the statement week ended January 17, when country bank excess reserves dropped very sharply from the previous week's seasonally high level (which is not included in the average above). On the other hand, Treasury bill rates (except for the 1-month bill) have generally ranged down to and in the past week below the low end of the 4.90 - 5.20 per cent range of expectations expressed in the preceding Blue Book, as investment demand for bills proved large, as the worst market fears about a crunch in the weeks around year-end were not realized, and as dealers became more willing to position bills. The FINANCIAL MARKET RELATIONSHIPS IN PERSPECTIVE (Monthly averages and, where available, weekly averages of daily figures) Bond Yields Flo of Reserves. Bank Credit arket Indicators Bank NonTotal Corporate MuniciFederal 3-month BorrowMoney borrowed ReCredit upply ings Funds TreasU.S. New pal teserves (In millions Rate ury Gov't. Issues (Aaa) Reserves serves Proxy of dollars) Bill (20 y.) (Aaa)/ (I dolars o (In of billions of (In billions -,____ _o_ Money Free Period - 1967--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1968--Jan. p 1968--Jan. 4/ 3 10 17 24 31 p p p p 59 42 172 199 275 257 311 270 252 212 225 148 476 366 196 150 94 88 132 86 82 141 124 185 4.87 4.99 4.50 4.03 3.94 3.97 3.78 3.88 3.99 3.87 4.14 4.49 4.72 4.56 4.26 3.84 3.60 3.53 4.20 4.26 4.42 4.55 4.72 4.96 4.51 4.61 4.56 4.64 4.90 4.99 5.01 5.12 5.16 5.36 5.66 5.59 5.43 5.18 5.31 5.38 5.62 5.79 5.78 5.86** 5.85** 6.08 6.50 6.51 3.50 3.38 3.47 3.50 3.71 3.80 3.86 3.78 3.81 3.88 3.99 4.15 +475 +325 +555 + 92 + 96 + 95 +307 +291 + 96 +250 +223 -296 132 275 4.61 4.99 5.39 6.22 4.06 +458 159 405 -70 126 44 495 180 224 233 241 4.56 4.58 4.65 4.68 4.58 5.01 5.01 5.03 5.03 4.87 5.53 5.34 5.35 5.45 5.39 6.32 6.18 6.16 6.27 6.16 4.15 4.08 4.03 3.98 3.90 Aveages Year 1967 First Half 1967 Second Half 1967 195 153 236 173 222 123 4.19 4.36 4.02 4.29 4.07 4.51 5.01 4.70 5.31 5.77 5.45 6.10 3.74 3.56 3.91 Recent variations in growth Mar. 29-June 28 Jun. 28-Nov. 29 Nov. 29-Jan. 31 245 254 139 110 112 235 4.00 : 96 4.'~5 3.66 4.41 4.97 4.83 5.25 5.49 5.63 5.96 6.29 3.68 3.86 4.11 I/ 2/ 3/ 4/ +11.5 +15.0 + 7.4 (Seasonally +359 + +218 + +415 + + 49 + 8 + +164 + +223 + +269 + +193 + +311 + +157 + -149 +488 Adjusted) 3.3 - 0.1 3.3 + 1.2 3.0 + 1.6 2.1 - 0.3 1.2 + 1.6 2.0 + 1.7 3.2 + 1.7 3.7 + 1.2 2.3 + 0.1 2.7 + 1.1 1.9 + 0.9 0.1 + 0.3 and Money Time Deposits 2/ dolars) dollars) + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.5 ' 1.7 1.3 + 2.0 + 1.2 - 0.3 + + + - + + - + + + 1.2 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.3 Annual rates of increase 3/ +11.6 + 6.5 + 9.8 + 6.8 +10.7 +12.1 + 6.0 +10.5 + 8.5 +18.8 +12.5 + 4.0 Includes issues carrying 5-year and 10-year call protection; ** issues carry a 5-year call protection. Time deposits adjusted at all commercial Banks. Base is change for month preceding specified period or in case of weekly periods, the first week shown. January reserve aggregate changes have been adjusted for change in reserve requirements held against net demand deposits effective at mid-month, January 1968. February 2, 1968. + 6.9 + 6.3 + 3.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 +15.8 +17.3 +13.1 +14.3 +14.1 + 2.2 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) -2- February 2, 1968. yield on the 3-month bill was quoted 4.86 per cent bid at the close on Friday. The 6-month bill also declined further, and has at times been quoted just below 5 per cent. Along with the decline in bill rates, yields on other money market paper dropped, and major banks reduced their offering rates on CD's maturing in less than 6 months to levels below the 5-1/2 per cent ceiling that had come to prevail on all maturities in the weeks around year-end. The sharpest rate declines were for shortest-term CD's, as banks preferred to lengthen CD maturities in anticipation of spring loan demands. Interacting with such interest rate declines in the U.S., Euro-dollar rates also declined--with the 3-month Euro-dollars recently quoted below pre-devaluation levels--even though U.S. banks increased their takings in that market during most of January by what would appear to be somewhat more than seasonal amounts. Contrary to expectations, the decline in bill rates did not lead to a rebound in growth of banks' time and savings deposits. The bulge in demand for business and security loans at banks in late 1967 and early 1968 appeared temporary to banks, and they made relatively little effort--as indicated by the sharp decline in CD rates--to compete for the sizable pool of short-term funds seeking investment that appeared in recent weeks. Nevertheless, outstanding CD's did rise by about $600 million in January, recovering about three-fourths of their December decline. On the other hand, consumer-type time deposits at banks were quite a bit weaker than staff expectations. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) -3- February 2, 1968. On average in January, total time and savings deposits declined slightly, still reflecting in good part the sharp drop in outstanding CD's that materialized during the latter half of December. From the end of December to the end of January, total time and savings deposits rose at a reduced 4 per cent annual rate. The absence of aggressive bank competition for time deposits reflected abatement of loan demands after early January and also perhaps the fact that private demand deposits did not decline in the course of the month as rapidly as would have been expected on seasonal grounds. Contributing to the maintenance of private demand deposits was a smaller than projected build-up in the Treasury cash balance over the month, mainly because tax receipts were lower than originally allowed for in our projections. For the month of January on average, the money supply rose at an 8 per cent annual rate, contrary to earlier staff expectations for only a minor change. However, the money supply did show a sharp decline late in the month, and from the week ending December 27 to the last week of January there was little net change in the level of cash balances. In sum, a peculiar pattern of deposit flows within the months of December and January resulted in changes in the monthly averages quite different from those projected in the last Blue Book. The data from month-end to month-end, however, appear to indicate an unfolding pattern more in line with what might logically have been expected on the basis of the public's incentives to hold particular financial assets. February 2, CONFIDENTIAL..(FR) 1968. Despite the unexpected shifts in the composition of deposit growth in January, total deposits and bank credit rose, on average, about in line with anticipations. Following a slight decline in December, the bank credit proxy increased at a little less than a 9 per cent annual rate, over half of which appears to reflect the $2.5 billion tax bill financing at mid-month. The rise in Euro-dollar borrowings abroad by banks would add less than 1/2 percentage point to that rate. The announcement on Wednesday of two Treasury financings--a refunding and pre-refunding for settlement on February 15 involving $12 billion of eligible publicly held issues, and a cash offering of $4 billion expected to be paid for on February 20 or 21--seemed well received by the market. In the pre-refunding, holders of outstanding issues are being offered a 5-3/4 per cent 7-year note. In the cash offering, a 15-month note will be offered, to be priced on February 8. Bill rates adjusted somewhat further downwards in wake of this announcement, as the market anticipated some added demand for bills from sellers of the "rights". The offering of a 7-year note was followed by only minor yield increases in the intermediate- and long-term sectors of the U.S. Government securities market, where interest rates had already risen somewhat from their mid-January lows. In corporate and municipal bond markets, yields have shown little change in recent weeks, although aggressively priced new issues have moved slowly over the past several days. February 2, 1968. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Looking back over the interval since the last meeting of the Committee, it appears that the atmosphere in short- and long-term markets has become somewhat more relaxed than was anticipated, even though most of the key flow and rate variables averaged within the Our analysis in the previous Blue Book probably did ranges specified. not make sufficient allowance for such a development for two reasons. The first relates to disintermediation prospects and liquidity pressures on banks. The staff assumed that disintermediation around the interest-crediting period banks had feared. would be less severe than the market and In the event, it was less severe, and loan demands were not so large as to unduly absorb bank liquidity. But the analysis in the previous Blue Book did not anticipate the shift toward more optimistic market attitudes that developed when their worst fears were not realized. The second reason relates to the Euro-dollar market. It had been expected that the new balance of payments program might tend to put upward pressure on Euro-dollar rates, with some feedback our short-term rate structure. on But, as it turned out, both our bill rates and Euro-dollar rates declined. Prospective developments With Treasury financings remaining a major expansionary influence on bank credit demands, the bank credit proxy is expected to rise in a 7 - 10 per cent annual rate range in February, little different from the January pace. This projection assumes that monay market conditions CONFIDENTIAL (FR) -6- February 2, 1968. will be about as have prevailed on average since the preceding meeting of the Committee--namely, member bank borrowings in a $200 - $300 million range; the Federal funds rate in a 4-5/8--4-3/4 per cent range; new dealer loan rates in New York frequently 4-7/8--5 per cent; and net free reserves averaging in a zero to $100 million range, but becoming negative at times. Under these conditions, the 3-month bill rate may be in a 4-3/4--5-1/8 per cent range. Upward pressures on these money market variables might develop out of heavy financing demands in connection with current and anticipated Treasury financings, or as a result of less conservative management of money positions by major banks than has been apparent during recent weeks. During the last half of January major New York banks worked into a basic reserve surplus--considerably more comfortable than usual--in a period when country banks were adjusting to the new higher reserve requirement. A more usual basic reserve deficit might be expected to develop at major banks in February, which would put upward pressure particularly on the Federal funds and dealer loan rates. Such pressures, as they persisted, could be communicated to the bill market, given currently relatively high dealer bill positions and also large dealer finance needs partly connected with current Treasury financing operations. Bill rates normally show some seasonal decline at this time, and reinvestment demands coming out of the large Treasury refunding may add to downward pressures. However, bill yields would be likely to move February 2, 1968. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) up significantly from current levels if there were a shift in sentiment by market participants, who now generally seem to believe that they overestimated the extent of private credit demands and of the tightening effects of Federal Reserve actions. Another factor that would tend to exert upward pressure on bill rates would be a greater desire on the part of banks to attract CD funds. This, in turn, would appear to depend on the appearance of substantially stronger business loan demands. We have projected a further growth in outstanding CD's similar to January's, on the assumption that business loan growth does not show any marked upsurge but remains above the proportions of last fall in view of the greater business need to finance inventories. The sharp shift in deposit mix in January is not expected to persist in February. A large part of the demand deposit expansion in late December and early January was reversed in the latest two weeks, perhaps related in part to lagged asset adjustments by deposit holders in a period of some uncertainty as to the impact of such developments as the new balance of payments program and prospects for the mix of fiscal and monetary policies. interest-crediting On the other hand, with December-January period passed, and with short-term interest rates somewhat lower relative to CD ceiling rates, time and savings deposits are expected to show more strength than they did last month. Over-all, one might expect the money supply to show little change on average in February, and quite possibly decline somewhat, but time and savings deposits might rise at a 7 - 9 per cent annual CONFIDENTIAL (FR) rate. February 2, 1968. U.S. Government deposits are expected to rise rather sharply during the month, but with the greatest increase, of course, at the time of the cash financing after mid-month. Interest rates in intermediate- and long-term markets may tend to drift upwards from current levels as the new Treasury 7-year note is distributed. Part of the issue will undoubtedly be taken into positions of dealers, whose current net position in "rights" less "when issued" sales is $400 million. As a result dealer holdings of securities maturing in more than 5 years will shift markedly from their current net short position to a net long position. This should make the market more vulnerable to any adverse news, or to any continued sluggishness in sales of new corporate and municipal issues. The volume of such issues is not expected to pick up from its recent pace, but the supply of investment funds may taper off at current yield levels. Investment demand in January was probably enlarged by accumulations of funds for securities held over from the lull in new issues in December, and by rumors of peace negotiations. Table A-1 MARGINAL RESERVE MEASURES (Dollar amounts in millions, Excess reserves Period As based on period averages of daily figures) Member banks brrowins I to revised Free I reserves date As expected at I. Monthly (reserves weeks ending in): As first published each week conclusion 1967--January February March April May June July August September October November December 417 408 368 349 369 345 449 356 334 353 349 333 476 366 196 150 94 88 132 86 82 141 124 185 - 59 42 172 199 275 1968--January p 407 275 132 413 249 561 190 144 145 216 58 269 104 345 132 298 151 378 164 271 186 379 106 22 29 291 330 518 221 384 80 132 162 127 119 211 198 356 94 265 295 262 348 92 204 312 233 375 131 240 6 13 20 27 288 333 267 442 87 121 185 345 201 214 82 97 228 187 47 100 257 216 3 10 17 24 654 585 154 359 285 495 180 224 233 241 159 405 -70 126 44 71 398 -55 133 44 45 363 -28 73 Weeklyr: 1967-- 'Oct. 4 11 18 25 Nov. 1 8 15 Dec. 1968-- Jan. 31 p - Preliminary of each week's open market opeations 257 317 270 252 212 225 I. 148 56 110 35 TABlE A-2 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND RELATED MEASURES Retrospective Changes, Seasonally Adjusted (In per cent, annual rates based on monthly averages of daily figures) Ag gr Reserve e g a t e s Required reserves Total Reserves onborr d Nonborrowed Against Total Demand Mon e t ar y Bank Deposits Bank Deposits credi ervesDeposits Var i ab 1 es Money Supply bTime Total 2 Private Deposits (comm. Total Demand Deposits banks)2/ Annually: 1966 1967 + 1.2 + 9.8 + 0.8 +11.5 + 1.4 +10.2 + 0.9 + 7.0 + 3.7 +11.6 + 8.8 +15.8 + 2.2 + 6.5 + 1.2 + 6.8 Monthly: 1966--Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. + - + - + - + + + + 3.8 1.5 2.3 9.8 + 2.8 - 2.8 -+ 2.1 + + 1967--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. +19.2 +11.5 +21.6 + 2.5 - 0.4 + 8.4 +11.3 +13.5 + 9.6 +15.3 + 7.6 - 7.2 +26.0 +17.4 +29.4 + 4.7 + 4.9 + 4.9 +15.2 +14.7 + 4.8 +12.4 +10.9 -12.8 +14.4 +12.0 +15.3 + 8.1 - 1.2 + 4.8 +16.0 +15.6 + 9.0 +18.0 + 5.5 - 0.3 +14.0 +11.6 + 9.8 + 5.0 - 2.1 - 2.8 +15.8 +14.4 + 7.2 +16.1 + 2.8 -10.2 +16.1 +15.9 +14.3 + 9.9 + 5.6 + 8.8 +15.2 +16.9 +10.3 +12.0 + 7.9 - 0.4 +16.5 +19.3 +19.0 +14.4 +13.5 +17.5 +15.2 +17.1 +11.4 +13.3 +11.2 + 8.5 - 0.7 + 8.5 +11.2 - 2.8 +12.5 +11.7 +11.6 + 8.1 + 0.7 + 7.4 + 6.0 + 2.0 - 2.7 + 9.1 +12.7 - 5.4 +15.3 +13.3 +14.0 +10.4 - 0.9 + 6.9 + 7.7 - 0.9 +24.7 +22.5 +17.6 +19.8 + 8.8 - 1.9 + 7.9 + 9.4 1968--Jan. p 3/ 4.5 6.9 3.1 0.9 2.0 6.4 8.3 0.7 1.0 3.0 3.1 1.8 4.5 7.2 0.5 6.7 0.5 4.4 3.4 2.0 1.8 4.5 0.9 0.9 Includes all deposits subject to reserve requirements. Movements in this aggregate correspond closely with movements in total member bank credit. 2/ Changes in reserves, total deposits and time deposits have been adjusted for redefinition of time deposits effective June 9, 1966. 3/ January reserve aggregate changes have been adjusted for change in reserve requirements held against net demand deposits effective at mid-month, January 1968. p - Preliminary. 1/ Chart 1 MEMBER BANK RESERVES MONTHLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES IIOI I , SY I I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 25.0 24.5 24.0 - 23.5 23.0 -------- rRESERVES -TOTAL 23.0 REQUIRED RESERVES 22.5 NONBORROWED 22.0 NET 21.5 RESERVES Mo_ BORROWED RESERVES I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1.0 MEMBER EXCESS 0 I I M I I J 1966 BANK BORROWINGS RESERVES I I S m«* %14 I D ' I M so , J 1967 I S D Chart 2 MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS AND LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 286 1 1 1 1 1 -7 - -7 1 I 1 1 1 TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS [CREDIT PROXY) SEAS 22 WEEKLY ADJ OF DAILY FIGURES AVERAGE 278 274 270 266__ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 262 2.58 2 5 4 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 250 242 L LIABILITIES TO OVERSEAS BRANCHES (WEEKLY REPORTING BANKS] NOT SEAS ADJ, WEDNESDAYS' 2 S 1966 D m i 1967 S D -Chart 3 MONEY SUPPLY AND BANK DEPOSITS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY I I I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I I I FIGURES I 1BO 175 170 180 165 175 160 170 165 STIME DEPOSITS (All Commercial - ADJUSTED Banks) 160 155 150 0 145 25 NEGOTIABLE CD'S (Unadjusted) 20 15 M J 1966 S D M J S D 1967 CHANGE IN SERIES Chart 4 DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED WEEKLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES I I DO OF DOLLARS IIONOF B BILLIONS MONEY SUPPLY COMPONENTS: CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS' 30 N -- 140 135 DEMAND DEPOSITS 130 125 120 15 U.S. GOVT. DEMAND DEPOSITS (Member Banks) 10 5 0 i ,, M | J 1966 S D M J 1967 S D Table B-l MAJOR SOURCES AND USES OF RESERVES Retrospective and Prospective (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) Factors affecting supply of reserves Currency Technical Federal Reserve Gold Gold o Period Period credit (excl. float) stock stock float) 1/ outside banks factors net 2/ banks net 2/ Year: 1966 (12/29/65 - 12/28/66) 1967 (12/28/66 - 12/27/67) +3,149 +4,718 -627 -725 -2,243 -2,305 +805 -165 Year-to-date: (12/28/66 - 2/1/67) (12/27/67 - 1/31/68) - 730 95 0 -451 +1,493 +1,735 -1,019 -1,212 554 514 380 404 159 -452 + 1 + 1 2 + 1 Weekly: 1968--Jan. 3 I PROJECTED 1968--Feb. Mar. = Change in = Bank use of reserves. Excess Required iExcess total reserves reserves 3/ +1,085 +1,522 +1,111 reserves - 3/ +1,517 - 97 -157 -353 -328 -486 761 524 352 352 260 +212 - 69 -431 +205 - 74 - 45 I 160 45 495 455 400 200 245 150 +295 - 25 +115 -150 55 260 135 455 55 260 135 455 6 13 20 350 125 160 340 55 60 - 50 - 60 +350 40 130 130 40 130 130 . - 26 + 5 256 23 7 14 21 28 ___________________________________ A reserves A. For retrospective details, see Table B-4. For factors included, see Table B-3. For required reserves by type of deposits, see Table B-2. See reverse side for explanation. Includes increase in reserve requirements of $360 million effective Jan. 11, effective January 18, 1968. p - Preliminary. 1968, and $190 million Explanation of Projections in Table B-1 1. Changes in Federal Reserve credit indicate reserves needed to offset projected changes in required reserves and factors affecting the supply of reserves. 2. Projected changes in currency outside banks reflect seasonal movements plus an allowance for growth of about $40 million per week. 3. Projected effects of Treasury operations, included in "technical factors," reflect scheduled and assumed calls in current two weeks and thereafter, maintenance of Treasury balances with Federal Reserve at $1.0 billion. 4. Projected changes in required reserves assume the existing net reserve position of banks and the structure of interest rates in the market, as well as the current economic outlook. On the basis of these assumptions the projections reflect expected movements in bank credit and money in the period ahead, including the effects of such elements as the public's loan demand, repayments of previous loans, bank's investment preferences and willingness to supply loans, bank's desires and abilities to obtain time and savings deposits, and the Government's financing needs. The projections thus encompass normal seasonal developments, temporary bursts of loan demand and expected associated repayments not currently reflected by the seasonals, and whatever cyclical and growth demands for money and credit are expected in the projection period. Assumed Treasury financing operations include: $-0.4 billion, February$15; $4.0 billion, February 20; $0.1 billion, February 29; $0.1 billion, March 7; $0.1 billion March 14. Table B-2 CHANGES IN REQUIRED RESERVE COMPONENTS Retrospective and Prospective Seasonal and Nonseasonal Changes (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) Total Period required reserves _____ Supporting private deposits _Supporting U. S. Gov't. d.md G demand T Totall deposits Other than Oer than seasonal changes Demand Time Seasonal changes Time Demand Year: 1966 (12/29/65 - 12/28/66) +1,111 - 87 +1,198 - 14 - 4 1967 (12/28/66 - 12/27/67) +1,517 +261 +1,256 + 59 + 6 1,023 + 168 Year-to-date: (12/28/66 - 2/1/67) (12/27/67 - 1/31/68) + 159 134 -100 -158 + 59 292 -232 -368 + 71 + 64 - 86 +557 + + 188 39 Weekly: 1968--Jan. +388 - 5 +1,2211/ 3 + 549 -230 + 779 +380 + 21 10 p - 455 -115 - 340 -160 + 11 -202 + ii 17 p 2 24 p 2/ 31 p + + - 79 147 186 -189 +390 - 14 + - 268 243 172 -147 -338 -103 + 21 + 6 + 5 +377 + 82 - 88 + + + 17 7 14 10 10 10 10 PROJECTED 1968--Feb. 7 14 21 28 + + 55 260 135 455 +170 - 70 - 25 +605 - 115 190 110 150 - 90 -175 -220 - 60 + 10 + 5 - 5 + 5 - 45 - 30 +105 -105 + + + + Mar. 6 13 - 40 130 -205 -245 + 40 115 +130 + 60 + 5 + 10 + 15 + 30 + + 15 20 + 130 -110 + 240 +145 - 10 + 90 + 15 Reflects reserves requirements changes in July, September 1966, and March 1967. Includes increase in reserve requirements of $360 million effective Jan. 11, 1968, and $190 million effective January 18, 1968. p - Preliminary. 1/ 2/ 7/ Table B-3 TECHNICAL FACTORS AFFECTING RESERVES Retrospective and Prospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) Period Technical factors Treasury (net) operations ACTUAL Year: 1966 (12/29/65 - 12/28/66) 1967 (12/28/66 - 12/27/67) Foreign deposits and gold loans (Sign indicates effect on reserves) Other nonmember deposits and F. R. accounts +805 -165 +673 - 85 + 64 -389 - 30 - 7 + 98 +316 -1,019 -1,212 -216 -375 -510 -946 + 5 - 11 -298 +120 -- 45 -353 -328 -486 -229 - 98 + 23 + 90 -161 - 53 - 1 -347 -261 -284 + 3 - 14 + 5 + 7 - 12 +279 + 68 - 34 -164 - 29 7 14 +295 - 25 +145 - 25 -- 70 --- +150 + 70 21 28 +115 -150 -- +300 -150 -- -185 -- 6 13 - 50 60 -- - 50 -105 -- -+ 45 20 +350 -- +250 -- +100 Year-to-date: (12/28/66 - 2/1/67) (12/27/67 - 1/31/68) Weekly: 1968--Jan. Float 3 10 17 24 31 p p p p PROJECTED 1968--Feb. Mar. p - Preliminary. Table B-4 SOURCE OF FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT Retrospective Changes (Dollar amounts in millions of dollars, based on weekly averages of daily figures) Total Federal Reserve credit _Excl. float) Period Year: 1966 (12/29/65 - 12/28/66) 1967 (12/28/66 - 12/27/67) U.S. Covernment securities Repurchase Total Bill agreements holdings +3,069 +5,009 +2,158 +4,433 + 474 +1,153 730 95 223 40 435 10 77 554 514 380 404 159 328 75 426 348 135 195 65 409 339 180 +3,149 +4,718 Federal Bankers' acceptances Agency Securitieses Member banks borrowngs bor +4-37 + 26 + 52 + -577 - 19 - -203 -658 - 26 -109 - 47 - 7 69 2 Year-to-date: (12/28/66 - 2/1/67) (12/27/67 - 1/31/68) Weekly: 1968--Jan. 3 - __ _ _ _ 66 11 _ __ _ _ _4:..... 24 -372 -104 - 17 - 57 +150 -315 + 44 + 9 + 34 + +133 -140 -- - 8 Chart Reference Table C-1 TOTAL, NONBORROWED AND REQUIRED RESERVES 1/ Seasonally Adjusted (Dollar amounts in millions, Period Total a reserves based on monthly averages of daily figures) STotal Nonbo d Nonborrowed r reserves Total Required reserves Against private deposits Demand Total Demand Total 21,857 21,923 21,356 21,417 21,488 21,533 20,626 20,719 15,921 15,943 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 21,869 21,986 21,976 22,186 21,318 21,533 21,589 21,722 21,494 21,645 21,671 21,861 20.904 21,073 21,170 21,285 16,065 16,147 16,196 16,266 1966--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 22,358 22,401 22,452 22,679 22,703 22,707 22,861 22,571 22,655 22,524 22,465 22,449 21,899 21,943 21,873 22,027 22,020 22,030 22,140 21,900 21,864 21,748 21,898 21,885 22,007 22,028 22,077 22,252 22,308 22,339 22,431 22,274 22,256 22,200 22,142 22,175 21,411 21,464 21,600 21,771 21,782 21,883 21,841 21,842 21,860 21,741 21,716 21,772 16,375 16,413 16,506 16,605 16,562 16,606 16,512 16,473 16,475 16,365 16,364 16,378 1967--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 22,808 23,026 23,441 23,490 23,482 23,646 23,869 24,138 24,331 24,642 24,799 24,650 22,360 22,685 23,240 23,332 23,428 23,523 23,830 24,121 24,217 24,467 24,690 24,394 22,442 22,666 22,955 23,110 23,086 23,178 23,488 23,794 23 972 24,332 24,444 24,437 21,803 22,044 22,297 22,293 22,559 22,890 23,049 23,275 23.330 23,453 23,605 23,628 16,328 16,478 16,647 16,578 16,786 17,024 17,115 17,246 17,237 17,316 17,404 17,386 25,158 24,852 24,795 23,778 17,539 1965--Jul. Aug. 1968 -- Jan. p 2/ p - Preliminary. 1/ 2/ effective June 9, 1966 Reserves have been adjusted for redefinition of time deposits in reserve requirements January reserve aggregates have been adjusted for change January 1968. held against net demand deposits effective at mid-month, Table C-2 DEPOSITS SUPPORTED BY REQUIRED RESERVES AT ALL MEMBER BANKS Seasonally Adjusted (Dollar amounts in billions based on monthly averages of daily figures) Private Total member Period bank deposits (credit) 1/2/ Time deposits 2 demand deposits 3J U.S. Gov't. demand deposits 1966--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 238.0 239.0 239.8 242.2 243.9 244.8 246.7 246.5 246.4 245.5 244.8 245.2 121.7 122.0 123.0 124.8 126.1 127.5 128.7 129.7 130.1 129.9 129.3 130.3 111.7 112.0 112.6 113.3 113.0 113.3 112.6 112.4 112.4 111.6 111.6 111.7 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.8 4.0 5.3 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.2 1967--Jan Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Jul. Aug. Sept. Ot. Nov. Dec. 248.5 251.8 254.8 256.9 258.1 260.0 263.3 267.0 269.3 272.0 273.8 273.7 132.2 134.4 136.5 138.0 139.4 141.7 143.3 145.6 147.2 148.2 149.8 150.8 111.4 112.4 113.6 113.1 114.5 116.1 116.7 117.6 117.6 118.1 118.7 118.6 4.9 4.0 4.8 5.8 4.1 2.2 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.6 5.3 4.4 1968--Jan. p 275.7 150.7 119.6 5.3 1/ 2/ 3/ Includes all deposits subject to reserve requirements--i.e., the total of time, private demand, and U.S. Government demand deposits. Movements in this aggregate correspond closely with movements in total member bank credit. Deposits have been adjusted for redefinition of time deposits effective June 9. 1967. Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individual, partnerships and corporations and net interbank balances. TABLE C-2a DEPOSITS SUPPORTED BY REQUIRED RESERVES AT ALL MEMBER BANKS Seasonally adjusted (Dollar amounts in billions based on weekly averages of daily figiires) Total member 1967-- Sept. Oct. demand deposits Gov't. 146.9 147.0 147.2 147.3 118.3 118.3 116.1 117.4 4.1 4.3 4 11 269.7 271.0 273.1 272.3 147.6 148.0 148.4 148.4 118.6 118.9 118.4 117.6 3.6 4.1 6.3 6.4 273.1 273.6 273.5 274.2 273.7 148.9 149.0 149.6 150.1 117.6 118.9 118.5 118.7 118.6 6.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 4.7 6 13 274.3 150.6 150.9 20 273.2 150.8 27 273.6 150.7 119.1 118.5 117.9 118.3 4.5 273.6 3 274.9 274.6 276.0 150.5 120.4 119.5 120.3 119.4 118.8 3.9 4.5 5.1 6.4 1 8 15 22 29 1968- -Jan. U. S. demand deposits 3/ 269.3 269.6 268.8 269.1 18 Dec. Private 6 13 20 27 25 Nov. Time bank deposits deposits 2/ (credit 1/ 2 / _ Week ending: 10 17 24 31 276.5 275.6 150.4 150.6 150.6 150.6 150.9 5.5 4.5 4.1 4.5 4.4 5.8 p - Preliminary. 1/ Includes all deposits subject to reserve requirements--i.e., the total of time, private demand, and U.S. Government demand deposits. Movements in this aggregate correspond closely with movements in total member bank credit. 2/ Deposits have been adjusted for redefinition of time deposits effective June 9, 1966. 3/ Private demand deposits include demand deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporations and net interbank balances. TABLE C-3 MONEY SUPPLY AND TIM DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Seasonally adjusted (Dollar amounts in billions, based on monthly averages of daily figures) Monthly Money Supply Currency Private Demand __Deposits 1966--Jan. Time Deposits 2/ Adjusted 3 167.9 36.6 131.4 147.5 Feb. 168.3 36.7 131.6 148.3 Mar. 169.2 36.9 132.3 149.8 Apr. May June 170.5 170.2 170.6 37.1 37.3 37.4 133.4 132.9 133.2 151.8 153.4 154.8 Jul 169.9 37.7 132.3 156.9 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 170.1 170.5 170.1 170.1 170.4 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.3 132.4 132.6 132.1 132.0 132.1 158.1 158.6 158.8 158.5 159.8 1967--Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 170.3 171.5 173.1 172.7 174.5 176.2 177.9 179.1 179.2 180.3 181.2 181.5 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.5 39.6 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.3 131.8 132.8 134.2 133.6 135.3 136.8 138.4 139.6 139.5 140.3 141.2 141.1 162.0 164.6 167.2 169.2 171.1 173.6 175.8 178.3 180.0 182.0 183.7 185.0 1968--Jan. 182.7 40.5 142.2 184.7 1/ Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of 2/ all commercial banks. Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in process of collection of Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks. 3/ Deposits have been adjusted for redefinition of time deposits effective June 9, 1966. p - Preliminary. TABLE C-3a MONEY SUPPLY AND TIME DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Seasonally Adjusted (Dollar amounts in billions, based on weekly averages of daily figures) I Money Supply Week Ending Currency 1/ Private Demand 2/ __Deposits 1967--Sept. Oct. 6 13 20 27 179.7 180.0 178.0 179.3 39.7 4 180.3 180.9 180.5 179.6 39.8 11 18 25 Nov. 1 1968--Jan. 39.9 40.0 39.9 39.8 40.0 22 29 180.3 181.3 181.3 181.2 181.1 6 13 20 27 181.5 181.0 180.8 181.8 40.1 183.1 182.4 183.6 182.4 182.1 40.4 40.5 8 15 Dec. 39.8 39.7 39.7 40.0 40.1 40.1 40.3 40.3 40.5 40.5 40.6 40.5 Time Deposits adjusted I/ 139.9 140.2 138.2 139.5 179.6 179.8 180.2 180.3 140.5 140.9 140.5 139.7 180.7 181.2 182.0 182.3 140.5 141.3 141.4 141.1 141.0 182.8 182.8 183.5 184.1 184.3 141.4 140.8 140.5 141.3 184.9 185.2 185.1 184.7 142.7 141.9 143.1 141.8 141.6 184.4 184.6 184.7 184.6 185.0 Includes currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the vaults of all commercial banks. 2/ Includes (1) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (2) foreign demand balances of Federal Reserve Banks. 3/ Deposits have been adjusted for redefinition of time deposits effective June 9, 1966. p - Preliminary 1/
@FedFRASER