The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Prefatory Note
The attached document represents the most complete and accurate version
available based on original copies culled from the files of the FOMC Secretariat at the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This electronic document was
created through a comprehensive digitization process which included identifying the bestpreserved paper copies, scanning those copies, 1 and then making the scanned versions
text-searchable. 2 Though a stringent quality assurance process was employed, some
imperfections may remain.
Please note that this document may contain occasional gaps in the text. These
gaps are the result of a redaction process that removed information obtained on a
confidential basis. All redacted passages are exempt from disclosure under applicable
provisions of the Freedom of Information Act.
1
In some cases, original copies needed to be photocopied before being scanned into electronic format. All
scanned images were deskewed (to remove the effects of printer- and scanner-introduced tilting) and lightly
cleaned (to remove dark spots caused by staple holes, hole punches, and other blemishes caused after initial
printing).
2
A two-step process was used. An advanced optimal character recognition computer program (OCR) first
created electronic text from the document image. Where the OCR results were inconclusive, staff checked
and corrected the text as necessary. Please note that the numbers and text in charts and tables were not
reliably recognized by the OCR process and were not checked or corrected by staff.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
February 22,
SUMARY AND OUTLOOK
By the Staff
Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
1978
SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK
I - 1
DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
Summary.
weather in January.
Economic activity was adversely effected by bad
Given the strong performance of final demands and
emergence of lean inventory positions late last year, prospects favor a
resurgence of activity such as occurred following the bad weather of
early 1977.
However, the vigor of the rebound may be affected by the
coal strike and lackluster consumer demand for domestic autos.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose nearly a quarter of a million
from December to January--factory hiring accounted for an appreciable
portion of the rise--and the unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage
point to 6.3 per cent.
However,
bad weather interrupted normal work
schedules, and the average workweek declined half an hour.
As a result,
total labor input declined in January.
Industrial production declined--seven tenths of 1 per cent-reflecting widespread reductions in
output.
The largest drop occurred
in the motor vehicles sector as auto assemblies were cut, apparently
mainly to bring inventories into better balance.
Production of business
equipment declined half a per cent (partly because of cuts in truck
output),
and production of coal fell somewhat further.
Residential construction activity was especially hard hit by
bad weather.
Total private housing starts fell to a 1.55 million unit
annual rate in January, from a (downward-revised) 2.2 million unit rate
in December.
Starts of both single-family and multifamily units declined
sharply, with all sections of the nation affected substantially.
Retail sales excluding autos and nonconsumption items declined
2.4 per cent in January, an unusually steep drop.
Sales were off sharply
at apparel, general merchandise, and furniture and appliance outlets.
Unit auto sales sagged further in January as sales of domestic autos,
which reportedly have been inhibited by consumer resistance to downsized
intermediate cars as well as higher prices, slipped to an 8 million unit
annual rate.
Given the strong pace of final sales and the moderate rise of
industrial production late last year,
the book value of manufacturing
and trade inventories was little changed in December and up only moderately
for the fourth quarter as a whole.
Total inventories of durable goods in-
creased somewhat further in December, while nondurable stocks declined.
Inventory-sales ratios were generally quite low by historical standards
at year-end, probably presaging a stronger pattern of industrial output
as sales advance.
Prospects for business spending on equipment continue reasonably
favorable.
New orders for nondefense capital goods rose 9.1 per cent in
December, and orders for machinery--usually an indicator of future investment plans--increased sharply.
The dollar value of construction
contracts for new industrial and commercial buildings also rose in
December, but for the fourth quarter as a whole, such contracts were down
slightly from the advanced third quarter level.
I - 3
State and local government units apparently continued to
pursue conservative spending policies in the aggregate.
Despite Federally
subsidized employment programs, job growth at State and local levels was
small in January and spending on capital projects remained well below
earlier levels.
Prices of finished goods at wholesale increased 0.6 per cent
However, prices
last month, about the same as the pace since September.
of goods and materials at earlier stages of processing, which accelerated
late last year, continued to rise quite rapidly.
Consumer prices rose
0.4 per cent in December, the latest month for which data are available.
The index of hourly earnings rose more rapidly in January than earlier
as the higher minimum wage became effective.
Outlook.
Adverse weather now is
expected to hold real GNP
growth in the first quarter to around a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate, about
one percentage point less than anticipated last month.
a resurgence of retail sales as the weather improves,
real terms now is
Whie we expect
consumption in
projected to rise by only about 1-1/2 per cent in the
first quarter--well below the average increase last year.
In large part
because of bad weather, residential building and business fixed investment are expected to run below our earlier estimates for this quarter.
At the same time,
inventory investment is
still
projected to pick up this
quarter following the reduced pace in the fourth quarter.
I-4
Fiscal and monetary policy assumptions underlying the staff
projection are essentially unchanged this month. We continue to assume
a tax cut of about $25 billion effective October 1 of this year, with twothirds of the reduction accruing to individuals.
Our estimate of FY 1978
Federal outlays has been raised to $458.5 billion.
This increase in
projected spending is more than offset by an upward adjustment of our
receipts estimate and, as a result, the projected deficit for the current
fiscal year has been lowered to about $60 billion and is expected to rise to
$64 billion in FY 1979.
Our monetary policy assumption still calls for
M-1 growth along a 5-1/4 per cent annual rate path through 1979-QII.
Short-term interest rates are expected to move up during this year, with
the bulk of the rise occurring by the summer of 1978.
Following the current quarter, real GNP growth is expected to
average just over 4-1/2 per cent (annual rate) through mid-1979--close
to the pace anticipated last month.
been made within the totals.
However,
some realignments have
Most notably, projected residential
construction outlays have been lowered in light of the recent and
prospective slowing in thrift deposit inflows and the associated tighter
mortgage market conditions.
Projected government purchases were revised
down somewhat as a result of new Federal budget data and the fourth
quarter pattern of expenditures.
By contrast, somewhat larger near-term
gains are expected in both consumption and inventories as activity
recovers from the recent bout with bad weather.
I - 5
In general, we continue to anticipate that the expansion
projected through mid-1979 will be supported importantly by business
investment activity, with inventory accumulation picking up and real
fixed capital outlays proceeding at close to a 6 per cent annual rate.
Despite the projected tax cut, consumer outlays are expected to slow
somewhat from the strong growth earlier in the recovery, as deferred
demands are fulfilled,
debt burdens grow and income growth slows from
the cyclically advanced rate of the early stage of the expansion.
The expected growth of real output remains consistent with
a reduction of about one-half a percentage point in the unemployment
rate to below 6 per cent by the end of the projection period.
Growth
of labor productivity in nonfarm businesses continues to be projected
in the 2-1/2 per cent range while the increase of compensation still
appears likely to average about 9 per cent.
Thus, unit labor costs
appear likely to average above 6 per cent, sustaining an underlying
inflation rate in the same neighborhood.
Details of the staff projection are shown in the tables
that follow.
I -6
STAFF GNP PROJECTIONS
Per cent changes, annual rate
Gross business
Nominal GNP
1/11/78 2/22/78
Real GNP
1/1178 2/22/78
product
fixed-weighted
price index
1/11/78 2/22/78
Unemployment
rate
(per cent)
1/11/78 2/22/78
1974/
1975-'
1976 -1
1977 -1
1978
8.1
8.2
11.6
10.8
11.6
8.1
8.2
11.6
10.8
11.1
-1.4
-1.3
6.0
5,0
4.9
-1.4
-1.3
6,0
4.9
4.6
10.4
9.5
5.4
6.0
6.2
10.4
9.5
5.4
6.0
6.2
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.1
6.4
5.6
8.5
7.7
7,0
6.2
1977-III
1977-IV-
10.2
11.6
10.2
10.4
5.1
4.5
5.1
4.0
5.0
6.0
5.0
5.5
7.0
6.8
6.9
6.6
1978-I
1978-11
1978-III
12.5.
11.0
10.9
11.8
11.0
10.4
5.4
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.2
6.6
6.3
6.6
6.8
6.4
6.2
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.2
1978-IV
12.3
11.8
5.1
4.8
6.3
6.2
6.3
6.1
1979-I
1979-II
11.9
10.8
11.9
10.8
5.1
4.5
5.0
4.5
6.6
6.4
6,7
6.4
6.1
6.0
6.0
5.9
12.2
11.9
5.8
5.7
6.3
6.2
-1.1
-1.2
11.3
10.8
4.9
4.5
5.9
5.9
-. 6
-. 9
11.7
11.3
4.8
4.5
6.5
6.4
-. 5
-. 5
11.5
11.2
4.8
4.6
6.5
6.4
-. 4
-. 3
Change:
76-IV to
77IVL'
77-11 to
78-II
77-IV to
78-IV
78-II to
79-II
1/
Actual.
February 22, 1978
I-7
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
CLASS II FOMC
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted.
Expenditures and income
figures are billions of dollars, with quarter figures at annual rates.)
1977
III
1978
IV
I
II
1979
Projected
III
IV
I
II
Gross National Product
Final purchases
Private
Excluding net exports
1915.9
1892.2
1491.3
1498.8
1963.7
1953.0
1539.6
1554.7
2019.3
2004.6
1581.8
1589.6
2072.7
2051.9
1619.6
1631.1
2124.5
2101.7
1659.4
1671.9
2184.7
2159.9
1704.8
1717.3
2246.8
2217.3
1751.8
1763.5
2305.4
2274.1
1798.0
1809.0
Personal consumption expenditures
Goods
Services
1218.9
659.4
559.5
1260.2
686.3
573.9
1285.3
694.4
590.9
1317.6
712.7
604.9
1350.7
730.8
619.9
1388.7
752.7
636.0
1427.1
772.4
654.7
1464.4
791.7
672.7
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
303.6
92.5
187.5
23.6
23.1
305.2
99.6
194.9
10.7
6.2
319.0
104.1
200.2
14.7
10.7
334.3
107.1
206.4
20.8
17.3
344.0
108.6
212.6
22.8
19.8
353.4
109.6
219.0
24.8
21.8
365.9
110.6
225.8
29.5
26.5
375.9
111.6
233.0
31.3
28.3
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
-7.5
179.9
187.4,
-15.1
173.6
188.7
187.9
195.7
-11.5
193.6
205.1
-12.5
201.0
213.5
-12.5
208.0
220.5
-11.7
215.7
227.4
-11.0
222.0
233.0
Gov't. purchases of goods and services
Federal 2/
State and local
400.9
148.1
252.9
413.4
153.8
259.6
422.8
156.2
266.6
432.3
158.7
273.6
442.3
161.7
280.6
455.1
167.2
287.9
463.5
170.5
295.0-
476.1
174.1
302.0
Gross national product in
constant (1972) dollars
1347.4
1360.7
1375.4
1390.9
1405.2
1421.9
1439.4
1455.2
Personal income
Wage and salary disbursements
Jisposable income
Saving rate (per cent)
1549.8
998.9
1323.8
5.5
1602.8
1028.5
1368.2
5.5
1641.6
1053.8
1403.0
6.0
1683.2
1078.2
1436.6
5.8
1732.0
1103.9
1475.5
6.0
1779.0
1133.5
1529.1
6.8
1822.8
1164.2
1568.8
6.6
1867.0
1191.3
1604.6
6.3
Corporate profits with I.V.A. and C.C. Adj.
Corporate profits before tax
149.0
172.8
143.6
177.1
148.3
184.3
153.7
190.2
153.1
190.2
161.9
199.7
161.3
199.6
165.1
203.9
Federal government surplus or deficit (-)
(N.I.A. basis)
High employment surplus or deficit (-)
-58.9
-20.4
-61.5
-21.9
-56.1
-18.6
-52.5
-16.0
-49.8
-11.6
-64.9
-30.7
-56.2
-22.0
-48.8
-15.6
Business fixed investment
-7.8
State and local government surplus or
deficit (-) (N.I.A. basis)
Excluding social insurance funds
32.9
17.6
31.6
15.9-
29.1
11.6
28.8
10.8
26.3
7.8
25.3
6.3
22.9
3.4
20.6
.6
Civilian labor force (millions)
Unemployment rate (per cent)
97.6
6.9
98.6
6.6
99.2
6.3
99.8
6.2
100.4
6.2
101.0
6.1
101.6
6.0
102.1
5.9.
Nonfarm payroll employment (millions)
Manufacturing
82.5
19.6
83.2
19.8
83.9
20.0
84.5
20.2
85.1
20.4
85.8
20.6
86.5
20.9
87.1
21.1
Industrial production (1967-100)
Capacity utilisation:
all manufacturing (per cent)
Materials (per cent)
Housing starts, pciete (millions, A.R.)
Sales new autos, (illions, A.R.)
Domestic models
Foreign models
1U
2/
138.4
83.0
82.3
139.3
82.9
82.2
139.8
82.3
81.5
142.8
83-.3
82.8
145.2
83.-9
83.6
147.9
84.5
84.4-
150.8
85.2
5.6
153.3
85.7
86.0
2.04
10.92
8.88
2.04
2.14
10.75
8.77
1.98
1.85
10.60
8.50
2.10
2.05
10.85
8.75
2.10
1.90
10.90
8.90
2.00
1.80
11.05
9.10
1.95
1.80
11.10
9.15
1.95
1.80
10.95
9.10
1.85
Balance of payments data and projection underlying these estimates are show in the International Development section
of this part of the Greenbook.
Components of purchases and total receipts and total expenditures are show in the Federal Sectr.-Accounts table which
follows.
February 22, 1978
I-8
-
CONFIDENTIAL
CLASS II FOMC
CHANGES IN GROSS NATIOINAL PRODUCT
AND RELATED ITEMS
1977
1978
III
IV
I
II
I
II
60.2
2.0
58.2
45.4
-. 0
45.4
38.0
21.9
16.1
1.0
6.4
12.8
5.5
7.3
62.1
4.7
57.4
47.0
.8
46.2
38.4
19.7
18.7
1.0
6.8
10.4
3.3
7.1
58.6
1.8
56.8
46.2
.7
45.5
37.3
19.3
18.0
1.0
7.2
10.6
3.6
7.0
15.5
14.4
16.7
11.7
13.0
15.6
9.3
10.8
13.7
1/
In Per Cent Per Year--
17.4
14.7
12.4
15.8
14.7
12.2
Billions of dollars --------------------
-----------------------
46.0
1.9
44.0
33.7
2.2
31.5
24.9
6.4
18.4
1.7
5.1
10.3
4.5
5.9
1979
Projected
III
IV
47.8
-12.9
60.8
48.3
-7.6
55.9
41.3
26.9
14.4
7.1
7.4
12.5
5.7
6.7
55.6
4.0
51.6
42.4
7.3
34.9
25.1
8.1
17.0
4.5
5.3
9.4
2.4
7.0
16.7
13.3
14.3
22.0
10.3
19.3
----------------
14.7
12.4
10.0
Gross National Product
Final purchases
Private
10.2
9.9
9.6
10.4
13.5
13.6
11.8
11.0
11.4
11.0
9.8
9.9
10.4
10.1
10.2
11.8
11.5
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.5
10.8
10.6
11.0
Personal consumption expenditures
Goods
Services
8.6
4.0
14.3
14.3
17.3
10.7
8.2
4.8
12.4
10.4
11.0
9.8
10.4
10.6
10.3
11.7
12.5
10.8
11.5
10.9
12.3
10.9
10.4
11.5
Gross private domestic investment
Residential structures
Business fixed investment
12.4
7.7
11.6
2.1
34.6
16.6
19.4
19.3
11.3
20.6
12.0
13.0
12.1
5.7
12.6
11.4
3.7
12.6
14.9
3.7
13.0
11.4
3.7
13.4
Gov't. purchases of goods and services
Federal
State and local
11.0
12.9
9.9
11.1
16.4
11.2
9.4
6.4
11.2
9.3
6.6
10.9
9.6
7.8
10.6
12.1
14.3
10.8
9.5
8.1
10.2
9.4
8.7
9.8
Personal income
Wage and salary disbursements
Disposable income.
8.9
7.5
10.0
14.4
12.4
14.1
10.0
10.2
10.6
10.5
9.6
9.9
12.1
9.911.3
11.3
11.2
15.3
10.2
11.3
10.8
10.1
9.6
9.5
Corporate profits before tax
-2.7
10.2
17.2
13.5
.1
21.5
-. 2
8.8
3.3
1.3
3.2
2.7
3.6
5.1
2.6
4.1
2.6
4.4
3.3
4.2
3.5
4.5
2.8
4.2
1.2
7.5
6.1
2.7
11.9
9.2
2.3
7.5
5.2
2.4
7.9
5.5
2.5
11.3
8.8
2.1
8.0
5.9
2.6
21.6
-6.2
-4.8
-12.1
1.4
-44.5
-5.5
-11.9
21.3
7.6
-19.4
5.6
9.3
-9.6
8.1
.0
1.8
2.2
.0
Gross National Product
Inventory change
Final purchases
Private
Net exports
Excluding net exports
Personal consumption expenditures
Goods
Services
Residential fixed investment
Business fixed investment
Government
Federal.
State and local
GNP in constant (1972)
Final purchases
Private
dollars
53.4
6.1
47.3
37.8
-3.7
41.5
32.3
1&.3
14.0
3.0
6.2
9.5
2.5
7.0
51.8
2.0
49.8
39.8
-1.0
40.8
33.1
18.1
15.0
1.5
6.2
10.0
3.0
7.0
GNP in constant (1972) dollars
Final purchases
Private
GNP implicit deflator2/
Gross business product fixed-weighted price index3/
Nonfarm payroll employment
Manufacturing
Nonfarm business sector
Output per hour
Compensation per hour
Unit labor costs
Industrial production
Housing starts, private
Sales new autos
Domestic models
Foreign models
1/
'
J
4.2
22.1
-24.1
-18.4
-43.9
Percentage rates are annual rates compounded quarterly.
Excluding Federal pay increases rates of change are: 1977-IV,
cent; 1979-I, 6.5 per cent.
Using expenditures in 1972 as weights.
8.9
50.8
9.8
12.3
.0
5.4 per cent; 1978-I,
6.9
-26.2
1.9
7.0
-17.7
7.1 per cent; 1978-IV,
6.0 per
6.8
.0
-5.3
-2.2
-19.0
I-9
NFIDENTIAL
CO
February 22, 1978
- FR
SS II FOMC
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Expenditures and income figures are billions of dollars)
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1063.4
1057.1
823.4
821.8
1171.1
1412.9
1404.0
1101.3
1528.8
1706.5
1540.3
1693.1
908.6
911.9
1306.6
1288.6
1019.1
1012.0
1201.4
1331.7
1095.3
1181.0
1323.9
1890.1
1872.6
1477.7
1487.8
2100.3
2079.5
1641.4
1652.5
668.2
374.8
293.4
733.0
410.5
322.4
809.9
457.5
352.3
889.6
498.3
391.3
980.4
542.2
438.2
1094.0
601.6
492.3
1211.4
660.6
550.8
1335.6
722.6
612.9
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
160.0
Business fixed investment
Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
188.3
62.0
104.1
116.8
220.0
66.1
136.0
17.9
14.7
214.6
55.1
150.6
8.9
10.8
189.1
49.6
-11.5
-15.1
243.3
68.0
161.9
13.3
14.9
293.9
91.0
185.5
17.4
16.4
337.7
107.3
209.5
20.8
17.4
Gross National Product
Final purchases
Private
Excluding net exports
Personal consumption expenditures
Goods
Services
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
6.4
5.1
1161.7
9.4
8.8
51.5
149.1
1.6
65.6
64.0
-3.3
72.7
75.9
7.1
101.6
94.4
6.0
137.9
131.9
20.4
147.3
126.9
7.8
162.9
155.1
-10.1
175.5
185.6
-11.1
197.6
233.7
96.2
137.5
253.1
102.1
151.0
269.5
102.2
167.3
302.7
111.1
191.5
338.9
123.3
215.6
361.4
130.1
231.2
394.9
145.5
249.5
438.1
160.9
277.2
1107.5
1171.1
1235.0
1217.8
1202.1
1274.7
1337.5
1398.4
942.5
633.8
801.3
6.2
1052.4
701.3
901.7
7.8
1154.9
764.6
984.6
7.3
1253.4
805.7
1084.4
7.4
1382.7
891.8
1185.8
5.6
1536.7
989.9
1309.2
5.1
1708.9
1092.3
1461.0
6.2
92.1
96.2
99.1
115.8
83.6
126.9
99.3
123.5
128.1
156.9
139.3
171.2
154.2
191.1
-22.0
-5.3
-17.3
-5.9
-6.7
-.7
-10.7
17.1
-70.2
-20.3
-54.0
-10.4
-49.9
-8.6
-55.8
-19.2
State and local government surplus or
deficit (-) (N.I.A. basis)
Excluding social insurance funds
3.7
-3.8
13.7
5.6
13.0
4.1
7.5
-2.9
5.9
-6:2
18.4
3.9
29.3
13.7
27.4
9.1
Civilian labor force (millions)
Unemployment rate (per cent)
84.1
5.9
86.5
5.6
88.7
4.9
91.0
5.6
92.6
8.5
94.8
7.7
97.4
7.0
100.1
6.2
Nonfarm payroll employment (millions)
Manufacturing
71.2
18.6
73.7
19.1
76.9
20.1
78.4
20.0
77.1
18.3
79.4
19.0
82.1
19.6
84.8
20.3
Industrial production (1967-100)
109.6
Capacity utilization: all manufacturing (per cent) 78.0
Materials (per cent)
83.1
119.7
83.1
88.0
129.8
87.5
92.4
129.3
84.2
87.7
117.8
73.6
73.6
129.8
80.2
80.4
137.0
82.4
81.9
143.9
83.5
83.1
Housing starts, private (millions, A.R.)
Sales new autos (millions, A.R.)
Domestic models
Foreign models
2.36
10.93
9.32
1.61
2.05
11.42
9.65
1.77
1.34
8.91
7.49
1.42
1.16
8.66
7.08
1.58
1.54
10.12
8.63
1.50
1.99
11.13
9.07
2.06
1.90
10.85
8.81
2.04
Gov't. purchases of goods and services
Federal
State and local
Gross national product in constant (1972) dollars
Personal income
Wage and salary disbursements
Disposable income
Saving rate (per cent)
Corporate profits with I.V.A. and C.C. Adj.
Corporate profits before tax
Federal government surplus or deficit (-)
(N.I.A. basis)
High employment surplus or deficit (-)
859.1
579.4
742.8
7.7
77.2
82.0
2.05
10.24
8.68
1.56
208.7
February 22, 1978
I - 10
'IDENTIAL - FR
CLASS
II FOMC
CHANGES IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
AND RELATED ITEMS
Projected
1971
1972
1973
-----------------------
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
Billions of Dollars --------------------
Gross National Product
Inventory change
Final purchases
Private
Net exports
Excluding net exports
Personal consumption expenditures
Goods
Services
Residential fixed investment
Business fixed investment
Government
Federal
State and local
81.0
2.6
78.5
63.7
-2.3
66.0
49.4
25.2
24.3
13.0
3.6
14.8
.6
14.3
107.7
3.0
104.6
85.2
-4.9
90.1
64.8
35.7
29.0
12.4
12.7
19.4
5.9
13.5
GNP in constant (1972) dollars
32.2
29.9
30.7
---
63.6
63.9
-17.2
-15.7
72.6
62.8
60.9
60.8
56.8
-8.6
2.1
54.2
59.9
59.3
48.0
53.3
-3.2
52.8
-13.8
57.1
57.4
-------------- In Per Cent Per Year ---------------------
Final purchases
Private
Gross National Product
Final purchases
Private
Personal consumption expenditures
Goods
Services
Gross private domestic investment
Residential structures
Business fixed investment
Gov't. purchases of goods and services
Federal
State and local
135.5
8.5
126.9
110.5
10.4
100.1
76.9
47.0
29.9
4.1
19.2
16.4
.1
16.3
9.8
8.9
11.1
10.2
8.8
12.0
11.6
11.0
12.4
10.7
9.8
11.9
10.3
9.4
11.3
16.8
6.6
16.4
-2.5
-16.7
10.8
-11.9
-6.5
-1.0
28.7
32.2
8.6
20.8
33.7
14.5
14.9
17.9
12.9
6.5
.1
10.8
12.3
8.7
14.5
12.0
11.0
12.6
6.6
5.5
7.2
9.3
11.8
7.9
10.9
10.6
11.1
5.5
4.9
6.3
5.8
5.7
-1.4
-. 7
-1.4
9.7
10.4
-1.3
.2
-. 3
9.6
9.5
6.0
4.5
5.6
5.3
5.4
4.9
4.7
5.3
5.6
6.0
4.6
4.5
4.5
6.3
6.2
9.7
9.4
7.9
11.7
10.7
12.5
9.7
9.0
9.2
8.5
5.4
10.1
10.3
10.7
9.4
11.1
11.0
10.4
11.2
10.3
11.6
27.0
9.1
11.6
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.9
4.1
8.7
4.5
2.0
8.5
6.4
10.2
32.5
16.9
21.9
-5.1
5.5
29.2
9.9
5.1
37.2
8.0
7.2
9.0
9.7
9.5
9.9
10.5
11.4
9.3
13.6
35.5
3.6
17.7
25.1
12.3
6.8
.6
11.6
8.3
6.1
9.8
Corporate profits before tax
14.7
17.3
20.4
9.6
-2.7
Nonfarm payroll employment
Manufacturing
.4
-4.0
3.5
2.8
4.3
5.1
2.0
-. 1
-1.7
-8.5
Nonfarm business sector
Output per hour
Compensation per hour
Unit labor costs
Using expenditures in 1972 as weights.
210.2
3.4
206.9
163.7
-1.0
164.7
124.2
62.0
62.1
16.3
24.0
43.2
15.4
27.7
11.1
11.0
11.1
GNP in constant (1972) dollars
Final purchases
Private
GNP implicit deflator
1/
Gross business product fixed-weighted index1/
Industrial production
Housing starts
Sales new autos
Domestic models
Foreign models
183.6
4.1
179.5
146.0
-17.9
163.9
117.4
59.0
58.5
23.0
23.6
33.5
15.4
18.3
10.8
10.6
11.0
10.9
12.2
Disposable income
177.7
24.8
152.8
130.3
-12.6
142.9
113.6
59.4
54.1
16.5
12.8
22.5
6.8
15.6
11.6
9.9
10.8
11.6
9.9
10.3
Wage and salary disbursements
115.9
-20.4
136.3
100.1
14.4
85.7
90.8
43.9
46.9
-3.6
-1.5
36.2
12.2
24.1
8.2
9.7
9.1
10.1
Personal income
106.3
-9.0
115.4
82.2
-1.1
83.3
79.7
40.8
39.0
-11.0
14.6
33.2
8.9
24.2
1.7
7.8
6.0
9.2
14.9
6.8
7.4
3.1
8.4
-13.2
-4.7
3.5
9.7
-2.9
9.4
12.7
-. 4
-34.6
-14.5
-22.4
-19.9
-8.9
-13.3
-28
-5.5
11.4
5.0
-4.4
-2.5
-2.9
-. 8
FEDERAL SECTOR ACCOUNTS
(billions of dollars)
Unified budget receipts
Unified budget outlays
Surplus (+)/Deficit(-), unified budget
Surplus(+)/Deficit(-), off-budget
agencies 3/
Fiscal FY
Year
Admin.
1977* est. /
400.4
356.9
462.2
401.9
-61.8
-45.0
-8.7
-11.5
February 22, 1978
Calendar quarters; unadjusted data
F.R. staff estimates
1977
1978
I*
II*
III*
IV*
I
II
III
IV
- 9A
1.3
71U.5 19.
19.U
2l 1.14-J
11U
S.f
1.
4
97.6
101 .8 103.4
113.3 111.4 114.4 119.3
1 22.0
-18.7
8 .6 -12.2
-28.8
-27.2
8.7 -12.9
- 29.0
CY197
Fs/
1978CY
1977*
F.R. Cong.
F.R.
Board est. 2/ Board
3bb.2
397I.
398.2
458.3
458.5
416.1
-60.3
-61.3
-50.9
1978
CY 197
F.R.
Board
1
47 .40
467.1
-60.4
-10.5
n.a.
-10.9
-4.3
0.1
-10.4
-4.9
-1.3
8/
20.7 / 23.7
6.84.3
2.6
2.9
Means of financing combined deficits:
Net borrowing from public
Decrease in cash operating balance
Other 4/
53.5
-1.7
1.9
66.0
n.a.
n.a.
59.3
7.1
4.3
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
56.8
-0.6
5.3
67.7
0.3
3.3
17.6
2.6
2.7
-1.1
-7.2
-0.4
8/
19. 6-2.80.4
Cash operating balance, end of period
19.1
n.a.
12.0
n.a.
12.3
12.0
12.0
9.0
9.0
16.3
16.3
19. 8/12.3
12.3
19.112.3
5.2
n.a.
18.0
n.a.
6.8
20.9
0.7
3.0
404.14 /
460.8
157.6
99.7
57.9
303.26/
-56.7-
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
373.7
423.5
145.5
94.3
51.2
278.0
-49.8
416.6
472.5
161.0
101.2
59.8
311.5
-55.9
364.9
403.7
136.3
89.7
46.7
267.4
-38.8
Memo: Sponsored agency borrowing 5/
1.1
2.0
-1.1
-4.4
-1.7
0.9
-8.0
-0.5
14.0
4.0
-0.7
29.1
0
1.6
8.0
16.0
12.0
12.0
4.7
5.4
-3.7
5.9
NIA Budget
Receipts
Outlays
Purchases (total)
Defense
Non-defense
All other outlays
Surplus(+)/Deficit (-)
High Employment Surplus(+)/Deficit (-)
(NIA basis) 7/
e--estimated
*actual
6/
361.9 6
411.9
140.6
91.8
48.8
271.46/
-50.0-
410.8
463.6
158.4
99.8
58.6
305.2
-52.8
-5.0
n.a.
r--revised
-8.6
n.a.
-17.0
n.e.--not estimated
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
371.2 373.2
385.3 398.3 410.4
411.5 432.1
446.7 454.4 463.3
143.6 148.1
153.8 156.2 158.7
93.4
95.6
98.5
99.4 100.0
50.2
52.5
55.3
56.8
58.7
267.9 284.0
292.9 298.2 304.6
-40.3 -58.9
-61.4 -56.1 -52.9
7.5
-19.2
0.2 -20.4
n.a.--not available
-21.9
-18.6
-16.0
429.0
478.8
161.7
100.9
60.8
317.1
-49.8
-11 .
p--preliminary
The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1979, January 1978.
Congress' Second Concurrent Resolution on the Budget (September 15, 1977).
Includes Federal Financing Bank, Postal Service, U.S. Railway Association, Riral Electrification and Telephone Revolving fund, Housing for the
Elderly or Handicapped Fund (until October 1977), and Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.
Checks issued less checks paid, accrued items and other transactions.
Includes Federal Home Loan Banks, FNMA, Federal Land Banks, Federal Intermediate Credit Banks, and Banks for Cooperatives.
Quarterly average exceeds fiscal year total by $1.6 billion for FY 1977 and by $1.7 billion for FY 1978 due to spreading of wage base effect
over calendar year.
Estimated by F.R.B. staff.
Includes $2.5 billionof borrowing from the Federal Reserve on September 30 which was repaid October 4.
428.7
493.6
167.2
104.3
62.9
326.4
-64.9
I - 12
Comments on the Fiscal Policy Outlook
The fiscal policy assumptions underlying the current GNP
projection are little changed from a month ago.
We continue to assume a
$25 billion tax package that consists of almost $17 billion in net individual tax reductions, around $6 billion in net business tax cuts, and
$1 billion each in telephone excise and unemployment insurance reductions.
Although our tax assumptions remain unchanged, the receipts forecast has been revised upward $5 billion to $398 billion, mainly due to
re-estimates of withheld tax rates and tax refunds.
This revenue forecast
is about $2 billion below the Administration's latest estimate; assump-
tions regarding income growth account for most of the difference.
Outlays
for the current fiscal year now are forecast at $458.5 billion, up $2 billion from last month's projection.
Payments to farmers during the month of
December exceeded previous expectations and are responsible for most of the
upward revision.1/
The staff expenditure and revenue estimates suggest a unified
deficit in fiscal year 1978 of slightly more than $60 billion and a total
deficit (unified plus off-budget) to be financed of almost $71 billion.
About $21 billion of this was met through borrowing in the fourth quarter.
1/ On an NIA basis the spending forecast is somewhat weaker than was presented last month. The difference between spending on the unified budget
basis and the NIA basis for fiscal 1978 has narrowed considerably from
earlier forecasts, because of Administration re-estimates of financial
transactions and defense deliveries. A given unified outlay total,
therefore, now translates into a lower level of NIA spending.
I - 13
The Treasury raised $11 billion through the sale of marketable debt thus
far in the first quarter and the staff estimates that additional new
financing of $16 to $17 billion will be required to carry the Treasury to
the April 15 tax date.
Between mid-April and the end of June, however, tax
receipts are expected to be seasonally high, and the Treasury should be
able to pay down marketable debt by around $10 billion.
Fiscal year 1979 outlays are projected at just slightly over
$500 billion, about in line with the Administration's recent estimate.
Our
spending forecasts, however, do differ somewhat in composition from the
Administration's.
The current Greenbook forecast includes higher outlays
for farm aid and for interests. 2 / In addition, the spending forecast
assumes Congressional inaction on some proposed budget reductions.
These
additions to outlays are partially offset by anticipated spending shortfalls
from budgeted totals in a number of grant and transfer categories.
Re-
ceipts, during fiscal 1979, are projected at $436.5 billion, and the resulting deficit is nearly $64 billion.
The current forecast--with its October 1, 1978 tax reductions-continues to show the high employment deficit increasing from $12 billion
in 1978:3 to $31 billion in 1978:4.
During the first half of 1979, how-
ever, the increased receipts resulting from higher social security taxes
and from the progressive nature of the tax system, more than offset the
full impact of the $25 billion tax package.
As a consequence, the high
employment deficit declines to $16 billion by the end of the forecast period.
2/ The January budget assumed a constant 6.1 per cent bill rate for fiscal
years 1978 and 1979.
I -
14
DOMESTIC FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
Summary.
Short- and intermedidate-term interest rates have
changed little on balance since the last FOMC meeting.
But with market
rates continuing to exceed ceiling rates on most categories of time and
savings deposits at banks and thrifts, an increasing volume of funds
has apparently been diverted from depository institutions to market
instruments.
For example, noncompetitive tenders in Treasury auctions
have risen somewhat, and following steady small rises in the fourth
quarter, shares in money market mutual funds increased sharply further
in January.
As a result, after a sizable increase in the first week of
the new year reflecting interest crediting, time and savings deposits
subject to Regulation Q ceilings at banks continued to expand at a
sluggish pace in January and early February.
Moreover, thrift deposits
have grown at steadily declining rates since last fall.
In January,
combined time and savings deposit growth at S&Ls and MSBs is estimated
to be at about a 4-3/4 per cent seasonally adjusted annual rate, the
slowest monthly growth of these deposits since the summer of 1974.
Despite the deceleration in the growth of small denomination
time and savings deposits, bank and thrift loans have apparenly continued
to advance at a rapid rate.
In recent months banks have run off a sub-
stantial volume of Treasury securities and have greatly increased
issuance of large denomination time deposits not subject to Regulation Q
ceiling rates.
S&Ls,
on the other hand, with only limited access
to the
I - 15
large time deposit market, have increased their borrowings from the
FHLBanks and from other sources, principally commercial banks.
However, in the face of declining deposit flows and recourse
by lending institutions to higher cost sources of funds, conditions in
mortgage markets have begun to tighten.
Although outstanding commit-
ments at S&Ls edged upward further in December,
substantially smaller than in recent months.
new commitments were
Moreover, interest rates
on new commitments for conventional mortgages at S&Ls have increased
15 basis points since the first of the year.
And applications for
FHA/VA mortgage credit have apparently begun to decline in reflection
of the deeper discounts--up to 5 points--now required by mortgage
originators on loans bearing the maximum 8-1/2 per cent contract rate.
Outstanding consumer credit expanded sharply further in
December.
in
1977,
Reflecting the large volume of mortgage and consumer borrowing
the ratio of total household debt to disposable income has risen
over the year and now stands at a level comparable to that of 1973 and
1974.
Moreover, the ratio of the sum of outstanding mortgage and con-
sumer credit to disposable income has increased steadily in recent months.
Still, traditional indicators of financial distress generally remain
favorable.
Personal bankruptcies turned down near the end of last
quarter and delinquency rates for most types of bank instalment loans
and for finance company auto loans have been about unchanged for the
last year.
I - 16
In part because of a sharp reduction in long-term borrowing
by financial firms following the backup in bond rates early in the year,
total public corporate bond offerings in January were even smaller than
the modest seasonally depressed volume marketed in December.
On the
other hand, the total volume of tax-exempt debt marketed in January
remained large, although advance refunding issues declined sharply.
Shorter-term business borrowing has remained strong.
For the
December-January period business lending by banks was maintained at a
rapid pace, with smaller banks increasing their outstanding business
loans at an especially strong rate.
During 1977 the ratio of short- to
long-term corporate debt raised in markets has edged steadily upward,
but remains well below the record level established in late 1974.
Aggregate corporate liquidity, moreover,
apparently remains comfortable
and market receptivity to lower-rated issues--as measured by the interest
rate spread between low- and higher-rated concerns--continues favorable.
The Treasury has borrowed a substantial volume of funds in the
coupon market since year end.
Early in the year foreign official insti-
tutions continued to purchase large quantities of Treasury securities,
but such purchases have diminished markedly in recent weeks.
agency borrowing--at $1.8
year ago.
Federal
billion was much larger in January than a
The largest share of agency borrowing was carried out by the
FHLB System, as advances to S&Ls rose further in January.
I - 17
Outlook.
With aggregate credit demands in
private short-term
markets expected to remain at about their fourth quarter level, interest
rates may fluctuate narrowly into early spring.
Long-term corporate
borrowing is expected to remain relatively light and sizable supplies
of funds should continue to be provided to this market by institutional
investors.
Reflecting the slow pace of auto sales, more moderate ex-
pansion in other retail sales, and further increases in scheduled debt
liquidation, growth in outstanding consumer credit could slow slightly
in the current quarter; short-term business borrowing is expected to
remain near that of the previous three months.
Treasury borrowing is
projected to accelerate substantially before the April 15 tax date, but
this appears to have been discounted to a great extent by the market.
Even if market rates stabilize over the next month or two,
mortgage market conditions may tighten somewhat further, as net deposit
flows at thrifts with current ceiling rates remain relatively modest.
Reduced spreads between yields on mortgages and bonds will tend to limit
potential market support by large diversified lenders.
And uncertainty
regarding increases in the borrowing authority of FNMA could also contribute to tighter mortgage market conditions.
Any stabilization in market rates over the near-term is
likely to prove temporary, given the projected strength of the economy
and assuming a tax cut in the fall.
As the year progresses, continued
strong demands for money and credit are likely to lead to further increases in short- and also, to a degree, in longer-term market rates.
I - 18
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Summary.
Pressure on the dollar --
during the past two weeks,
at times heavy --
following the relatively calm period for the
dollar on exchange markets of the previous month.
U.S.
resumed
Prospects for large
current-account deficits continuing into the indefinite future, as
well as uncertainty about the course of U.S. economic policies, were
factors that contributed to the downward pressure on the dollar.
Over the six-week period since the previous green book, the
weighted-average exchange rate for the dollar declined a further 1.2
per cent, bringing to about 7 per cent the total depreciation since
the end of September.
. During the past six weeks the System and
the Treasury each sold more than $350 million equivalent of German marks,
and the System also sold nearly $70 million equivalent of Swiss francs.
Most of this activity has occurred during the past week and a half.
Since last month's green book, all major currencies except
the French franc and Canadian dollar have appreciated against the dollar,
with the Swiss franc (about 9 per cent) and the mark (less than 4 per cent)
appreciating the most.
The further appreciation of the mark intensified
pressure within the EC joint float, and on February 10 Norway devalued
I - 19
its currency against its snake partners by 8 per cent.
The French franc
has fallen by more than 2 per cent against the dollar since the beginning
of February, reflecting market concern about the mid-March French
parliamentary elections, with latest polls continuing to give the
Socialist and Communist parties combined a slight edge.
The renewed
weakening of the Canadian dollar, which fell by more than 1 per cent over
the past six weeks, continues to be associated with internal Canadian
political uncertainties.
The U.S. trade balance in December continued to reflect the
effects of last fall's dock strike.
For the final quarter of last year,
the trade deficit was $35.5 billion at an annual rate, a figure that
was enlarged by the lingering effects of the dock strike.
Foreign official assets in the United States (excluding OPEC
holdings) increased by $3.5 billion in December.
The total net foreign
official inflow for the fourth quarter exceeded $14 billion, nearly
half of the total of such inflows for the year as a whole.
.
Assets
of OPEC official accounts in the United States decreased by $700 million
in December.
In 1977, OPEC holdings in the United States increased by
$6 billion, a rate about $1 billion lower than a year earlier.
Bank-reported private capital transactions (adjusted for
reporting bias) showed a net outflow of $600 million in December,
I - 20
bringing the total net (adjusted) outflow for the final quarter of last
year to $2.3 billion.
For 1977 as a whole, the net outflow amounted
to nearly $2 billion, far below the $10 billion net outflow recorded in
1976.
Total new borrowing on international capital markets
(Euro-
credit, Euro-bond, and foreign bond markets) in the fourth quarter of
1977 exceeded $15 billion, the same rate as in the previous quarter.
For 1977, total new borrowing in these markets amounted to about $62.5
billion, about equal to the amount borrowed in 1976.
Euro-bond issues
increased substantially last year, while Euro-credits rose little and
foreign bond issues declined.
Borrowing in the Euro-credit market by
non-oil developing countries declined slightly last year, but this was
more than offset by increased borrowing by these countries in the Eurobond market.
Outlook.
Latest data suggest that growth of output in several
foreign countries recovered somewhat in the final quarter of last year.
Industrial production recorded a substantial quarter-to-quarter rise in
Japan, and more moderate rises were recorded by Germany and Canada,
following two quarters of flat output in these three countries.
The
staff projects a moderate growth of activity abroad this year, led
primarily by increased consumption and government spending.
For the
six major foreign countries combined, the staff projects an acceleration
of expansion to a year-over-year rate of about 4 per cent (compared with
I - 21
a rate of less than 3 per cent last year), and a fourth-quarter-tofourth-quarter rate of about 4.5 per cent.
The latest staff projection for the U.S. trade and current
accounts this year and for the first half of next year indicate slightly
larger deficits than those presented last month. A $33 billion trade
deficit is expected this year, with the rate leveling off at about $36
billion beginning this summer.
The rate of merchandise exports in 1978
has been reduced somewhat, though they are projected to increase by 12
per cent over last year.
The current-account deficit for this year is
now projected at $21 billion, with expectations of a leveling off at
about $22-23 billion starting in the second half of the year.
Particularly in view of the considerable depreciation of the
dollar since the end of September, the staff expects no significant
further change for the average value of the dollar in the year ahead.
However, given the projections for continuing large U.S. trade and
current-account deficits and remaining uncertainties about U.S. economic
policies, exchange rates for the dollar may continue to be subject to
wide fluctuations during the year.
Some further appreciation of the
mark and yen is expected to occur over this period.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II
U.S.
Net Exports and Related Items
(billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates)
C
1976
1.
2.
3.
GNP NET EXRTS - Inti Acct. data
(GNP net exports - GRP Acct. dats)
a)
/
Merchandise Trade Balance
1977P
1978
p
1 9 7 7
iI
III
I
IVP
February 22,
i
19
II
8
1978
p
I1
IV
I
1979 P
II
7.7
-9.0
-8.5
(7.8)(-10.1*)(-11.l)
-7.6
(-8.2*)
-9.1
(-9.7*)
-6.9
-12.5
(-7.5*)(-15.1J
-5.2
-8.9
(-7.8)(-11.5)
-9.3
-31.4*
-33.2
-28.6
.31.2
-30.2
-35.5*
-29.1
-33.2
-35.1
-35.7
-36.0
-35.7
-9.9
(-12.5)
-9.9
-9.1
(12.5) (11.7)
-8.4
(-11.0)
4.
5.
6.
Exports (excl. military)
Agricultural
MNoagriculturol
114.7
23.4
91.3
120.4
24.3
96.1
135.1
23.0
112.1
117.8
24.4
93.4
122.4
26.7
95.6
123.5
24.0
99.4
118.0*
22.2*
95.8*
129.0
23.1
105.9
132.2
22.8
109.4
137.2
23.0
114.2
142.1
23.2
118.9
147.1
23.4
123.7
152.0
23.6
128.4
7.
8.
9.
Imports
Petroleum and pitrol, products
lonpetroleum
124.0
34.6
89.4
151.8
44.8
107.0
168.3
46.1
122.2
146.4
44.1
102,4
153.6
47.7
105.9
153.7
45.8
107.9
153.5*
41.5*
112.0*
158.1
42.1
116.0
165.4
45.2
120.2
172.3
47.9
124.4
177.8
49.4
128.4
183.1
50.9
132.2
187.7
51.2
136.5
14.3
2.7
1.6
18.5
2.3
2.0
20.2
2,6
1.7
17.9
1.4
.8
19.1
2.1
1.9
18.4
3.1
1.8
18.5
2.7
2.0
19.6
2.3
2.0
19.9
2.4
2.0
20.5
2.7
2.0
20.8
3.0
2.0
21.8
3.1
2.0
22.2
3.1
-19.1
-9.0
-10.1
-16.9
-7.6
-9.3
-18.6
-9.1
-9.5
-17.4
-6.9
-10.5
-23.5
-12.5
-11.0
-17.2
-5.2
-12.0
-21.5
-8.9
-12.6
-23.0
-9.9
-13.1
-23.0
-9.1
-13.9
10.
11.
12.
b)
c)
d)
Military trensactions, uet
Invetment income, net 3/
Other services, net /
./
13.
14.
15.
U.S. CUUTl ACCOUr BALANCB
*a)
G
net ijport (line 1,)
b) U.S. Govt & private transfers ./
-1.4
7.7
-9.1
16.
17.
Constat (1972) dollars
erchandise exports (excl. military)
(7 change, anmal rates)
66.7
(3.4)
66.9
(0.2)
71.9
(7.5)
66.1
(-7.4)
67,6
(9.5)
62.8
(22.5)
71.1
(13.2)
74.5
(4.8)
70.3
(28.2)
72.0
(10.0)
3.8
5.1
5.7
10.4
18.
19.
Merchandise Imports
(. change, amal rates)
20.
21.
OiP2,X abage, imaua rtes
Wholesale Prices, .
herap, A.R.
/
*,2
.eal
9,4
-21.0
-9.5
-11.5
2.8
8.7
T -A
:a . 71 Anf
4nL.
*OcV. Oa
.1 4) in thot IULLon
o
of reviio ns
sad
new data.
I/ IEcludes gr ta to Israel ,uadr military *satenac stacs nod exports
fiamncd by those an*ts.
3/ Icludes U.S. Govt. ipterest payoets to fore4gers, which are Lacluded la Itm 1.
A/ Includes travel transporttto fees sd royaltie,
callaneous other service transactions.
1/
sad mis.
Intluds U.8. GCOt. grants, U.S. Govt. inaerest payments to
foreigners, ra ittan*e
and pensione,
by U.S. military assistance grans.
and exports to Israel financed
0,4
7.4
68.7
65.0
(6.1) (-22.9)
71.2
("4.5)
70.8
(-2.0)
1.2
3,7
4.1
3.3
70.6
(39,1)
71.0.
(2.0)
71.7
73.8
(4,9) (12.1)
4.9
5,3
4.9
6.1
-22.6
-9.9
-12.7
-22.5
-8.4
-14.1
72.4
(8.2)
73.7
(7.4)
75.0
(7.4)
76.3
(7.0)
75.5
(10.0)
72.0
(7.8)
77.9
(4.9)
78.5
(2.8)
4.5
6.1
4.5
5.7
4.5
5.7
4.1
6.1
--
/ Weighted by the shares of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the
United tingdom in the um of the real GM? of the six countries in dollar terms.
7/ Data ae largely manufactured goods prices.
jI nolected
oed
I/ eti
V PAbUshd data.
@FedFRASER