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(CONFIDENTIAL FR) February 11, 1972 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM February 11, 1972 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) In January, the seasonally unadjusted level of total reserves at member banks averaged close to the upper end of the target range adopted by the Committee at the last meeting. The target range was a 20--25 per cent increase in total reserves seasonally adjusted. Since that meeting, new seasonal factors have become available for the total reserves series--the end process of the annual revision of deposits and related series--and the seasonally adjusted series has been revised accordingly going back to 1959. While the old, unrevised seasonally adjusted series shows an annual rate of growth in total reserves from December to January of about 28 per cent, the new series shows a growth rate for the same period of about 21 per cent. As measured by the new series, however, the average growth rate for December and January combined is about the same as in the old series. The appendix table on page 12 provides a comparison of the old and new series for the past year. (2) While reserves came out close to expectations in January, the mix of deposits was different from staff anticipations. Growth in the narrowly- defined money stock for January, at a 3-1/2 per cent annual rate, was short of expectations, as the table shows, but growth of bank time and savings deposits other than large CD's greatly exceeded our estimates. This latter increase seems to have reflected in part business and institutional interest in such accounts, given existing rate relationships. With time deposits very strong, expansion in both the broader money supply and the bank credit proxy was more rapid than projected at the time of the last meeting. -2- January over December Changes in Money and Credit Aggregates Range of Targets I and II Presented at Last Meeting Actual (Annual percentage rates of change) 6--8 3-1/2 M1 M2 9-1/2--11 14 7--8-1/2 10 Credit Proxy Time and savings other than large CD's 1/ 24-1/2 26-1/2--271/ Total Reserves 13--14 28 l/ Based on old total reserve series. Over the full inter-meeting period, (3) the Federal funds rate declined by about a half percentage point, from nearly 3.75 per cent to about 3.25 per cent. With the narrowly-defined money supply growing less rapidly than expected and with a sizable Treasury financing in the market, the Desk did not move aggressively to hold growth of total reserves within the 20-25 per cent range. ed in net declines the prime rate. The easing of money market conditions was reflect- of most other short-term rates, including further cuts in Most recently, the 3-month Treasury bill has been trading around 3 per cent, down about 15 basis points over the period. But the market has continued to anticipate future short-term rate increases as the Treasury finances the large deficit. Such expectations, together with reports of sizable continuing forward calendars of new corporate and municipal bonds and to some extent the debt extension involved in the Treasury's recent refinancing, bond markets. contributed to a general 25--35 basis points yield advance in (4) The following table compares seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in major financial aggregates in January and in selected earlier periods. 1970 1971 Fourth Quarter (Dec. over Jan. over Sept.) Dec. Total Reserves 6.0 7.3 2.2 21.4 Nonborrowed Reserves 9.2 8.0 6.9 23.4 (Currency plus demand deposits 1/) 5.4 6.2 1.1 3.7 M (M1 plus time deposits 2 at commercial banks other than large CD's) 8.1 11.1 8.0 13,9 M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions 7.8 13.2 9.5 15.0 Total member bank deposits (Bank credit proxy adj.) 8.3 9.5 9.7 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 8.1 10.7 8.7 17.5 Large CD's $ 14.5 $ 7.9 $ 1.8 -0.2 Nonbank commercial paper - - 1.4 1.6 N.A. Concepts of Money M Bank Credit 9.9 Short-term market paper (actual $ change in billions) 1/ 2/ 2.1 Other than interbank and U.S. Government, Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. N.A. - Not available. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are either end-of-month or last Wednesday of month figures. -4Prospective relationships among aggregates and interest rates (5) The table below summarizes three alternative patterns of prospective relationships among monetary aggregates and money market conditions that the staff believes to be consistent. The anticipated behavior of monetary aggregates is indexed in the summary table by data on M1, but the patterns for all of the key aggregates--M1, M 2 , the adjusted credit proxy, and total reserves--are shown in the table on the following page. The lower portions of the ranges shown for money market indicators under pattern II are representative of recently prevailing conditions. Pattern I Pattern II 2--3 3--4 25 25--200 Federal funds rate Member bank borrowings 3-month Treas. bill rate 2-1/2--3-1/4 3--4.1/2 Pattern III 4--5 200--350 4-1/4--5-1/2 Growth in M 1 (SAAR): 11-1/2 8 February March 1st Q '72 2nd Q '72 (6) 11 7 7-1/2 7 10 8-1/2 10-1/2 5-1/2 6-1/2 7 For M 1 all three patterns involve a more rapid growth in February and March than in recent months, and growth in the second quarter larger than in the first quarter. (a) There are three reasons for this expectation: the lagged impact of recent short-term interest rate declines will be raising the demand for cash; (b) cash balances have been worked down to more normal levels relative to income following their sharp increase over the -5- Alternative Monthly and Quarterly Pattern for Key Monetary Aggregates M2 M1 I II III I II III 1971 Dec. 228.2 228.2 228.2 464.7 464.7 464.7 1972 Jan. Feb. Mar. June 228.9 231.1 232.6 238.4 228.9 231.0 232.3 237.1 228.9 230.9 232.0 236.2 470.1 475.5 479.3 491.2 470.1 475.4 478.9 489.5 470.1 475.3 478.2 486.7 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth Feb. Mar. 1st Q. 2nd Q. 11.5 8.0 11.0 10.5 14.0 7.0 5.5 9.5 13.5 9.0 13.5 7.5 7.5 10.0 7.0 8.5 6.5 7.0 12.5 10.0 12.0 9.0 11.5 7.0 Adjusted Credit Proxy Total Reserves I II III I II III 1971 Dec. 361.9 361.9 361.9 31.2 31.2 31.2 1972 Jan. Feb. Mar. June 364.9 366.1 369.8 379.4 364.9 366.0 369.4 368.4 364.9 365.9 368.9 376.2 31.8 31.7 31.7 32.8 31.8 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.7 31.6 32.5 32.7 Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth Feb. Mar. 1st Q. 2nd Q. 4.0 12.0 3.5 11.0 3.5 10.0 -4.5 3.0 -5.0 1.0 -5.5 8.5 10.5 8.5 9.5 7.5 8.0 6.5 13.5 5.5 12.5 5.0 11.0 -1.0 -6first seven months of last year so that the overhang of such liquidity will no longer be exerting a drag on net money demand; (c) transactions demands for cash are expected to be enlarged, with nominal GNP projected to expand at about a 10-1/2 per cent annual rate in the first half of this year as compared with a 6-1/2 per cent rate in the second half of last year. Finally, it might be noted that in the short run a sharp drop projected for U.S. Government deposits at commercial banks in February may temporarily boost M 1 growth in that month. (7) While demand for, and expansion in, M 1 is expected to increase substantially, growth in M 2 is likely to decelerate from the January rate, particularly after February. The extremely rapid rise of time deposits other than large CD's of the last two months is not expected to persist over the months ahead. The favorable spread between interest rates on time and savings accounts and short-term market rates is likely to narrow; the degree to which this occurs as a result of rising market or falling institutional rates will depend in part on whether open market policy tends toward patterns I, II, or III. With business loan demand expected to remain quite moderate, cuts in interest rates on passbook savings accounts and time certificates are likely to become more widespread. Such cuts would probably snowball if the Federal funds and Treasury bill rates were to move down into the range associated with pattern I, and be held back--and in some cases rescinded if they had already occurred--if market rates moved into the range of pattern III. (8) The adjusted credit proxy is expected to grow much more slowly in February than in January mainly because of a projected sharp -7drop in U.S. Government deposits. But this will probably be only a temporary dip, and the rate of increase in bank credit should be sizable in ensuing months. Growth will not be as large as in the 3-month November-January period, when it was at a 12 per cent annual rate on average, because of the slowing that is expected in expansion of time and savings deposits. Nonetheless, bank credit is likely to be available in ample enough supply for banks to help support large contra-seasonal Treasury net cash borrowing between now and the end of April and a continued sizable flow of new municipal securities. At what level of interest rates such support will be forthcoming will depend in part on the strength of business credit demands and on changes in money market conditions, which represent the cost of day-to-day liquidity to banks. (9) Pattern I implies a substantial enough easing in money market conditions so that both short- and long-term market interest rates would be likely to decline from current levels in the short run between now and the next meeting of the Committee. The actual decline that develops in short-term rates might be limited by expectations of an early reversal, however, assuming economic news is favorable. The range of money market conditions indicated for pattern II encompasses a Federal funds rate high enough--the range is 3 to 4 per cent--to leave room for a turn-around in short rates. Even if the funds rate were to remain in the bottom half of the range, which would be about the prevailing rate, the bill rate could begin to rise in reflection of increased Treasury borrowing. And, of course, pattern III would lead to a sharp reversal in short-term rates. -8(10) It is not clear how much short-term rates can increase without entailing a rise in longer-term rates. The 3-month bill rate at the moment appears low relative to other bill and short-term market rates, so that it might rise 20--25 basis points over the near-term with very little effect on either other short- or long-term rates. A substantially larger rise could well involve feedback effects on the whole rate structure. A sizable volume of corporate and municipal issues is currently pressing on the market, and there is some--though relatively small--volume of new Treasury coupon issues overhanging the market. Over the longer-run, the staff still anticipates a significant moderation in the volume of corporate bond offerings; if this develops, it would likely contribute over time, to limiting the upward effect on long rates of short-term rate increases. (11) The total reserves that are likely to be associated with the monetary aggregates and interest rates shown in patterns I, II, and III are summarized in the table on page 5. 1/ The figures indicate that in pattern II, for example, total reserves--following a sharp rise in January--are likely to decline somewhat in February, and rise sharply in April. show little net change in March, This pattern reflects, among other things. swings in U.S. Government deposits and net interbank deposits. private nonbank deposits alone, Against reserves in January expanded at about a 15 per cent annual rate, and, under pattern II, in February and March are indicated to increase at 5-1/2 per cent and 10 per cent rates, respectively. 1/ More detailed reserve figures (in millions of dollars, seasonally unadjusted, and also nonborrowed reserves) have been prepared on a consistent basis. Proposed directive (12) This section presents two alternative formulations for the second paragraph of the directive (labeled "A" and "B") which are intended to be--though they do not necessarily have to be--associated with differing degrees of emphasis in operating procedures between money market conditions and reserves. Each of the two formulations shows three alternative adjec- tives qualifying "growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." These adjectives can be taken, if the Committee so wishes, to represent alternative target rates of growth. To provide a possible quantitative interpretation of these adjectives, they are numbered I, II, and III to correspond with the three aggregate patterns described in the preceding section. (13) As will be noted in both A and B, it is proposed to delete the reference to the Treasury financing, and also to international developments. The latter deletion is suggested on the assumption that the Committee will no longer consider it necessary to make explicit provision for the contingency that sudden large reflows from abroad will pose major problems for open market operations, given the passage of time since the Smithsonian agreement and the absence to date of market churning as a consequence of reflows. (14) Alternative A. This language is proposed for possible use if the Committee decides that the Desk should focus primarily on money market conditions as the day-to-day control variable, giving only as much weight to bank reserves as was customary in most of 1971. This formulation could also be used, with appropriate interpretation, to call for about the -10- same relative emphasis on aggregate reserves and money market conditions as was decided upon at the January FOMC meeting. "To implement this policy, [DEL: international of account taking while financing,] Treasury forthcoming the and developments the Committee seeks to ACHIEVE [DEL: in] ease of degree the promote money market conditions [DEL: to] essential bank reserve and - greater ) (I THAT WILL SUPPORT(II - AMPLE ) (III- MODERATE) growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead." The money market conditions the staff expects to be consistent with each of the three alternative targets for operations are noted in paragraph (5) above. (15) Alternative B. This language is proposed for possible use if the Committee decides that the Desk should place primary emphasis on bank reserves as the control variable, subject to a proviso constraining the range of fluctuations in money market conditions. Under this alternative money market conditions would, of course, be expected to fluctuate more widely than under A, with the extent of fluctuation depending on the specific interpretation the Committee attached to the proviso clause. "To implement this policy, [DEL: taking while interof account national financing,] Treasury forthcoming the and developments SYSTEM OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS UNTIL THE NEXT MEETING OF the Committee [DEL: in] ease of degree the promote to seeks SHALL BE CON- market money and DUCTED WITH A VIEW TO SUPPLYING bank reserves [DEL: - greater ) (I ) AT A RATE CONSISTENT WITH (II - AMPLE to] essential conditions (III- MODERATE) growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS DO NOT FLUCTUATE OVER AN UNDULY WIDE RANGE." -11(16) If the Committee were to adopt alternative B it could base reserve operating targets on the levels and growth rates for reserves shown earlier to be consistent with either patterns I, II, or III. The Committee may also wish to allow, in operations, for the effects on reserve levels of unanticipated changes in U.S. and perhaps large CD's. Government deposits, net interbank deposits, The effect of anticipated changes in such deposits was discussed in paragraph (11). (17) For the proviso clause in alternative B, the Committee may wish to consider a range of fluctuation for the Federal funds rate as large as 2 percentage points, Directive. If pattern II, for example, as recommended by the report of the Committee on the the Committee were to adopt as targets the aggregates of this would mean widening the funds rate range from 3--4 per cent to 2-1/2--4-1/2 per cent. The range could, of course, be made more restrictive on either the up or down side, or both, depending on the extent to which the Committee may wish to emphasize interest rates relative to aggregate objectives. -12Comparison of Annual Rates of Growth-Reserve Aggregates Total Reserves Old Series Nonborrowed Reserves Revised Series Old Series Revised Series 1971 I II 11.0 IV Monthly--January February March Quarterly -- April May June July August September October November December -1. 1 10.0 7.1 2.2 11.0 5.3 10.8 2.8 9.5 9.0 6.0 6.9 12.2 11.4 9.2 10.6 8.6 7.3 8.8 15.1 8.8 8.1 11.7 8.4 2.7 17.0 0.2 8.5 13.5 7.9 8.7 12.4 -6.2 16.9 9.9 0.0 0.3 14.7 4.4 4.1 12.8 -13.1 7.7 5.1 -7.4 3.4 10.7 -13.0 5.6 28.3 21.4 6.6 10.4 15.8 -15.9 8.9 16.1 29.6 -7.6 2.8 22.8 16.0 -2.8 2.0 21.4 28.9 23.4 1972 January p CHART 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 2/11/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -240 (2/9/72) -- 230 220 -1226 210 II- II r" I1111 I I 1 1 BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 -480 -1460 -1450 1 1 1971 1972 A I S IJ J 0 '71 N 0 J J '72 A CHART 1A CHART STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL IFR) 2/11/72 2/11/72 MONETARY AGGREGATES CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (2/9/ 72) A f366 -370 360 - 362 350 - 358 -340 - 354 330 -350 320 I 346 l I 1 I J. TOTAL RESERVES 34 FtUNREVISED SERIES UNREVISED SERIES (2/9/ 72) / -33 25% growth from Dec to Jan -32 \ 31 32 20% growth 3 -0 31 29 1970 1971 1972 A S 0 '71 N D J '72 CHART 2 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATE Short-term 1970 1971 1970 1971 INTEREST RATES Long-term 1970 1971 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Table 1 BANK RESERVES February Seasonally Adjusted Periodorrowed Total (1) Required (2) (REVISED 1971--Oct. Nov. Dec. 1972--Jan. SERIES) 30,882 30,970 31,246 31,800 Feb. Projected Nonborrowed (3) 30,692 30,751 31,102 31,573 (31,674) Total (4) 11, 1972 Not Seasonally Adjusted Nonborroed Required Nonborrowed Excess (5) (6) (7) Borrowing (8) 1/ 30,485 30,535 31,077 31,683 (31,472) 30,860 30,953 31,329 32,866 30,500 30,546 31,222 32,846 30,653 30,690 31,164 32,698 ' (32,306) (32,070) ,nnual Percentage Rates of Change--Quarterly and Month ly 1971--3rd Qtr. 7.1 7.1 4th Qtr. 2.2 2.4 1971--0ct. Nov. Dec. -7.4 3.4 10.7 -8.5 2.3 13.7 1972--Jan. 21.4 (-5 0) Feb. 18.2 /-4 ON Weekly Pattern 1971--Dec. 1 8 15 22 29 Jan. 5 12 19 26 Feb. 2 9 16 6.0 6.9 -2.8 2.0 21.4 23.4 in Millions of Dollars 31,355 31,002 31,177 31,116 31,525 30,833 30,842 30,991 31,089 31,362 30,629 30,860 31,093 30,876 31,372 31,275 30, 743 31,153 31,151 31,924 30,685 30,600 30,949 31,180 31,610 30,570 30,684 31,128 31,010 31,708 31,772 31,651 31,609 31,608 31,629 31,501 31,711 31,566 31,857 31,639 32,814 32,793 33,734 32,643 32,757 32,776 33,721 32,630 31,509 31,443 31,460 31,648 31,421 32,450 32,502 32,688 33,423 32,404 32,186 31,872 31,961 32,026 31,747 31,796 31,539 31,952 LJ NOTES: -~ _________________ 32,432 31,909 1 4 1. Annual rates of change other than those for the past are rounded to the nearest half percent. Data shown in parentheses are current projections. I/ Aggregate reserve series have been revised to reflect new seasonal factors and current reserve requirement percentages. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) Table 2 MONETARY AGGREGATES (Actuals and current projections, seasonally adjusted) Narrow Money Supply (M) (1) Period Broad Money Supply (Mg) (2) Adjusted Credit Proxy (3) U.S. Gov't. Depposits (4) Total Time and Savings (5) February Time deposits other than CD's (6) Monthly Pattern in Billions of Dollars 11, 1972 Nondeposit Sources of Funds (8) Negotiable CD's (7) 1971--Oct. Nov. Dec. 227.7 227.7 228.2 458.3 354.7 460.8 464.7 358.0 361.9 4.7 5.4 6.2 263.3 265.3 269.9 230.6 233.1 23t.4 32.7 32.2 33.4 4.8 4.4 4.0 1972--Jan. Feb. 228.9 (231.0) 470.1 (475.4) 364.9 (366.0) 6.2 (3.5) 274.4 (277.9) 241.2 (244.4) 33.2 (33.5) (4.0) 4.0 Annual Percentage Rates of Change--Quarterly and Monthly 1971--3rd Qtr. 4th Qtr. 3.7 1.1 4.4 8.0 7.6 9.7 8.2 15.9 5.3 14.7 1972--1st Qtr. (7.0) (12.0) (8.5) (15.5) (17.5) 1971--Oct. Nov. Dec. 0.5 7.1 6.5 10.2 4.8 11.2 13.1 17.1 9.1 20.8 13.7 13.0 17.0 1972--Jan. Feb. 3.7 (11.0) 13.9 (13.5) 9.9 20.0 (15.5) 24.4 (16.0) 227.6 228.6 227.6 227.8 228.5 462.1 463.3 463.6 464.2 466.6 267.1 267.9 269.1 270.1 272.1 234.5 234.7 236.0 236.4 238.1 32.6 33.2 33.0 33.6 34.0 5.4 4.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 228.2 228.5 229.0 229.2 468.2 469.2 469.8 470.6 363.8 364.5 365.7 366.1 273.2 274.0 240.0 240. 7 274.1 274.6 240.9 241.4 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.3 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.1 229.8 230.6 472.2 473.9 365.1 366.6 275.8 242.4 276.6 243.2 ... _1i. ~- -l 33.4 33.4 33.4 3.8 4.0 1971--Dec. 1972--Jan. 2.6 (3.5) Weekly Patterin in Billions of Dollars 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 Feb. --- NOTES: 2 9pe --- 359.6 360.4 360.6 362.3 363.4 ~ pe - Partially estimated Data shdwn if parentheses are current projections. Annual rates of change other than those for the past are rounded to the nearest half per cent. I -4. - - s Table 3 CONFIDENTIAL(FR) AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES February 11, 1972 RETROSPECTIVE CHANGES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (Annual rates in percent) Reserve Aggregates Period 1 Total Nonborrowe 2 Total Reserves (REVISED Annually 1968 1969 1970 1971 Nonborrowed Reserves SERIES) Monetary Variables 3 Member Total Member Bank 4 Adusted Money Supply Adlusted 5 Credit Proxy 6 Total Currency Deposits Addenda 7 8im Private Demand Time Deposits Adlusted 9 Thrift Thrift Instit Deposits 10 Nonbank Nonban Commercial Paper Deposits + 7.8 + 5.8 + 8.9 + 9.7 - - 2.7 - + 0.4 + 6.0 + 7.3 Se5i-annually 1st Half 1970 2nd Half 1970 1st Half 1971 2nd Half 1971 Quarterly Ist Qtr. 1971 2nd Qtr. 1971 + 9.2 + 8.0 +11.8 +12.2 + 8.3 + 9.5 + + + + + 0.4 .+11.6 + 9.6 + 4.7 + 3.0 +15.3 + 9.3 + 6.5 + 4.7 +18.4 + 4.8 +11.4 + 5.6 + 5.2 + 7.4 + 5.5 + 5.1 + 5.1 + 8.4 +26.3 + 4.7 +10.6 +12.8 + 1.7 +14.6 + 9.1 + 9.7 + 8.8 +10.0 + 2.4 + 8.6 + 5.5 +10.5 + 1.4 +22.3 +12.2 +20.9 +12.4 +10.4 1.3 4.0 7.8 3.2 5.4 6.2 + + + + 7.4 6.0 6.5 7.1 + 7.9 +11.3 + 2.4 - + 5.1 + 6.0 +17.9 +17.9 + 6.3 + 3.4 + 7.8 +17.2 n.a. + 7.3 4.9 n.a. - 4.4 -18.2 + + + + 9.5 9.0 6.0 6.9 +16.9 +11.8 +10.9 + 8.4 + 9.1 +10.6 + 8.2 + 8.8 + 9.4 +11.3 +28.8 +14.7 +23.3 +17.4 -24.7 -12.5 3rd Qtr. 1971 4th Qtr. 1971 + 8.9 +10.0 + 7.1 + 2.2 + 8.1 +10.0 + 7.6 + 9.7 + 3.7 + 1.1 + 6.3 + 4.6 + 2.8 + 8.2 +15.9 +12.8 +11.5 +21.9 1971--Jan. Feb. Mar. +10.6 + 8.6 + 7.3 + 8.1 +11.7 + 8.4 +16.2 +17.8 +16.1 +10.2 +11.9 +10.3 + 2.8 +13.4 +11.0 + 7.3 + 9.7 + 7,2 + 1.4 +14.5 +12.1 +28.8 +29.7 +26.0 +25.1 +18.5 +24.9 - Apr. May June + 8.5 +13.5 + 7.9 +16.9 + 9.9 0.0 +15.9 +12.5 + 6.7 + 8.5 + 8.8 + 7.7 + 8.2 +14.1 + 9.1 +12.0 + 7.1 + 7.1 + 7.1 +16.2 +10.4 +13.2 +15.5 +14.8 +21.8 +14.2 +15.4 + 4.4 -15.8 -26.3 July Aug. Sept. + 4.4 + 4.1 +17.8 - +11.2 + 5.6 + 7.3 +10.7 + 4.1 + 7.9 +10.1 + 3.2 + 8.9 + 3.4 2.1 +11.7 + 2.3 + 4.6 - 4.1 + 9.4 + 4.2 +10.7 +15.9 + 8.5 +13.8 -32.1 + 2.8 +22.8 +31.6 Oct. Nov. Dec. - 1.4 +21.4 + 4.8 +11.2 +13.1 + 6.9 + 2.0 + 2.1 + 9.9 +17. 7 + 0.5 + 3.4 +10.7 +2.6 + 6.9 + 1.4 +17.1 + 9.1 +20.8 +11.8 +10.9 +11.7 +30.1 -38.6 +75.8 +21.4 +23.4 +10.4 + 9.9 + 3.7 + 3.4 +20.0 Jan. - p - NOTE: 7.4 - 7.6 2.8 -- -- - -- + 4.6 I - -- 9.0 -10.9 -55.2 - n.a. Aggregate reserve series have been revised to reflect new seasonal factors and current percentage reserve requirements against deposits. Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial p - Preliminary paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. 1.0 1.7 n.a. I FR 712 - E Table 4 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY VARIABLES February 11, 1972 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (In billions of dollars) 28,315 28,695 29,059 27,060 27,907 28,438 298.4 Nov. Dec. 28,700 28,704 29,132 28,190 28,239 2Q,764 Jan. Feb. Mar. 29,390 29,600 29,779 Apr. May June 1971: July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1970: 29,991 30,327 307.8 210.3 211.6 212.8 48.0 48.1 48.3 162.4 163.5 164.5 208.4 213.2 217.7 17.0 19.3 21.3 191.4 193.9 196.4 318.2 322.5 324.3 28.7 28.5 29.7 310.6 313.8 319.0 213.1 213.6 214.8 48.5 48.7 49.0 164.6 164.9 165.8 221.5 224.2 228.9 22.6 23.6 25.5 198.9 200.6 203.4 324.8 326.5 330.6 30.5 29.7 31.2 28,958 29,240 29,445 323.3 328.1 332.5 215.3 217.7 219.7 49.3 49.7 50.0 166.0 168.0 169.7 234.4 240.2 245.4 26.6 27.5 28.1 207.8 212.7 217.4 333.4 336,7 339.6 31.0 30.7 29.3 29,859 30,106 30,106 336.9 340.4 342.3 221.2 223.8 225.5 50.5 50.8 51.1 170.7 173.0 174.5 248.1 251.3 254.4 27.8 28.5 29.4 220.3 222.8 225.0 342.0 344.5 346.7 29.4 29.0 28.3 29,915 29,985 30,556 345.5 347.1 349.2 227.4 228.0 227.6 51.6 51.7 51.9 175.8 176.3 175.7 256.4 257.3 259.6 30.4 30.8 31.6 225.9 226.5 228.0 349.8 351.0 353.3 27.6 27.6 28.3 349.8 352.7 31,246 30,485 30,535 31,079 357. 9 227.7 227.7 228.2 52.2 52.2 52 5 175.5 175.5 175.7 263.3 265.3 269.9 32.7 32.2 33.4 230.6 233.1 236.4 354.7 358.0 361.9 29.0 28.1 29 8 31,800 31,683 361.0 228.9 52.7 176.2 274 4 33.2 241 2 364 9 NA 1 8 15 22 29 31,355 31,002 31,177 31,116 31,525 30,629 30,860 31,093 30,876 31,372 30,833 30,842 30,991 31,089 31,362 354.2 355.7 356.8 358.4 359.6 227.6 228.6 227.6 227.8 228.5 175.5 176.1 175.1 175.2 175.9 267.1 267.9 269.1 270.1 272.1 234.5 234.7 236.0 236.4 238.1 5 12 19 26 p 31,772 31,651 32,026 31,747 31,796 31,711 31,566 31,857 31,639 31,648 31,609 31,608 359.6 360.4 360.6 362.3 363.4 360.3 360.5 361 4 361.9 361.3 29.4 29.3 28.7 29.2 28.3 228.2 228.5 229.0 229.2 229 8 175.6 175.8 176.1 176.5 176 9 273.2 240.0 240.7 240.9 241.4 1A A.1/ 363.8 364.5 365.7 366.1 ' -- '1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29 3 30,527 30,639 July Aug. Sept. 30,743 31,073 Oct. 30,882 Nov. 30,970 Dec. 1972: Week 1971: 1972: Jan. 203.7 ending: Dec. Jan. Feb. 2 p I 31,629 31,501 31,509 ___76 I I I 274.0 274.1 274.6 275 8 I I Aggregate reserve series have been revised to reflect new seasonal factors and current percentage reserve requirements against deposits. NOTES: Reserve requirements on Euro-dollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commercial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bankrelated commercial paper, and Euro-dollar borrowings of U. S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month. p- Preliminary. FR 712 - F
@FedFRASER