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Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC December 17, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC December 17, 1976 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) After expanding at a 13.7 per cent annual rate in October, M1 remained unchanged on average during November. Available data for December suggest a resumption of moderate growth, and for the November-December period M1 is now projected to rise at a 2.1 per cent annual rate--somewhat below the Committee's operating range. Despite the efforts of some institutions to slow inflows of high-cost term funds by cutting rates or reducing advertising, growth of savings and consumer-type time deposits at banks and thrift institutions has continued at a rapid pace. Indeed, growth of time and savings deposits (excluding CD's) at commercial banks is running somewhat stronger than anticipated, and thus M2 is expected to increase at an 11.2 per cent rate in the November-December period--near the midpoint of the range specified by the Committee. With large CD's and interbank deposits also rising unexpectedly and adding to the demand for reserves, nonborrowed reserves appear to be increasing at a 7.5 per cent rate over the two-month policy period.1/ 1/ Appendix A contains a discussion of the actual behavior of nonborrowed reserves in the weeks between the November and December meetings relative to the behavior that was expected to be consistent with the Committee's short-run ranges for monetary growth. Growth in Monetary Aggregates over November-December Period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges M1 3 to 7 M2 9½ to 13½ Memo: Federal funds rate (Per cent per annum) Latest Estimates 2.1 11.2 Avg. for statement week ending Nov. 17 5.02 24 4.90 Dec. 1 4.78 8 4.67 4.68 15 (2) Data available shortly after the November meeting indicated that while M2 growth would be around the mid-point of the range set by the Committee, M1 growth would be in the lower half of its range. Consequently, the Desk proceeded to implement the Committee's directive by seeking a reduction in the Federal funds rate from the prevailing level of 5 per cent--first to 4-7/8 per cent and then to 4¾ per cent. As December progressed, incoming data suggested a further weakening in M 1 growth, and the Desk became somewhat more accommodative in the provision of reserves. Most recently the Desk has been seeking reserve conditions consistent with a Federal funds rate around 4-5/8 per cent. (3) Market rates of interest have declined sharply since the November Committee meeting, reaching lows for the current cycle. Yields on most short-term instruments have dropped about 40 to 60 basis points, and bond yields have eased roughly 30 basis points. Much of the impetus for the market rally was supplied by System actions: the lowering of the Desk's funds rate objective and the quarter-point cut in the discount rate announced on November 19. Expectations of additional easing actions by the System, fostered by evidence of sluggish growth in M1 and slow economic expansion, also contributed to the rally. The prime lending rate at most commercial banks has declined from 6½ to 6¼ per cent, and one major institution has posted a 6 per cent rate. In the mortgage sector, secondary market rates have fallen in sympathy with other yields, but rates on new home loans in the primary market have been stable. Stock prices have risen signifi- cantly since the November meeting. (4) In November, total short-term business credit--that is, business loans plus nonfinancial commercial paper--rose substantially for the second consecutive month. At the same time, public bond offerings by domestic corporations fell to the lowest level of the year. In December, however, the volume of such offerings rebounded, partly because of the decline in interest rates. Tax-exempt bond offerings have remained at a high level, reflecting in part some acceleration of planned borrowings. In the Government sector, the Treasury has borrowed $6 billion, net, since the November meeting, primarily through an addition to the November 2-year note and the sale of 4-year notes and 132-day cash management bills. (5) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. -4Calendar Year Twelve Months Nov. '76 Past Six Months Nov. '76 Past Three Months Nov. '76 Past Month Nov. '76 1975 over Nov. '75 over May '76 over Aug. '76 over Oct. '76 Nonborrowed reserves 1.3 1.1 4.7 4.6 14.9 Total reserves -.4 1.1 4.4 4.3 14.1 Monetary Base 5.8 6.9 6.9 7.4 10.3 M 1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ 4.1 4.8 4.2 4.4 0.0 M 2 (M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's) 8.5 10.6 10.4 11.9 10.3 11.3 12.6 12.8 13.9 11.6 M 4 (M2 plus CD's) 6.4 6.7 7.9 9.8 9.3 M5 (M3 plus CD's) 9.7 10.0 11.0 12.4 11.1 Total member bank deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 3.9 3.9 7.4 9.1 13.2 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ 4.4 5.9 7.6 9.2 9.4 Large CD's -.6 -1.6 -1.0 -0.8 0.1 Nonbank commercial paper -.2 0.2 -.1 -.5 0.1 Concepts of Money M 3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. -5Prospective developments (6) Summarized below are three sets of short-run specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate. More detailed data, including longer-run growth rates, are shown in the tables on pp. 5a and 5b. Alt. A Alt. B 3-7 2½-6½ Alt. C Ranges for December-January M1 M2 Federal funds rate (Intermeeting period) 9½-13½ 3¾-4½ 9-13 4¼-5 2-6 8½-12½ 4¾-5½ (7) Alternative B assumes that prevailing money market conditions--indexed by a Federal funds rate around 4-5/8 per cent-would be maintained between now and the next Committee meeting. M1 in the December-January period would, in consequence, be expected to expand in a 2½-6½ per cent annual rate range. The mid-point of that growth range is close to the average rate of growth in M1 over the past six months--a period when the rate of expansion in nominal GNP had slowed. A faster growth in M 1 is expected to develop later in the winter in reflection of the pick-up in economic expansion that is currently projected by the staff. (8) A continued sizable increase in M 2 would be expected over the next few weeks, given prevailing money market conditions. Growth in M 2 for the December-January period is projected in a 9-13 -5aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 Alt. A M2 Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 November December January 309.8 310.9 312.4 309.8 310.9 312.1 309.8 310.9 311.9 732.0 739.4 746.4 732.0 739.4 745.6 732.0 739.4 744.7 1223.4 1236.3 1249.5 1223.4 1236.3 1248.0 1223.4 1236.3 1247.0 1976 QIII QIV 305.9 310.2 305.9 310.2 305.9 310.2 710.9 732.4 710.9 732.4 710.9 732.4 1182.5 1223.8 1182.5 1223.8 1182.5 1223.8 QI QII QIII 314.3 318.6 322.8 314.1 318.2 322.8 313.9 753.0 769.9 783.8 751.8 768.4 783.5 750.5 767.9 783.4 1262.4 1293.8 1320.2 1259.9 1292.0 1319.9 1258.2 1289.8 1321.7 12.1 11.4 12.1 10.1 12.1 8.6 12.7 12.8 12.7 11.4 12.7 10.4 1977 318.0 322.8 Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 December January 4.3 4.6 Quarterly Average: 1976 QIV 5.6 12.1 12.1 12.1 14.0 14.0 14.0 1977 QI QII 11.3 9.0 7.2 10.6 8.8 7.9 9.9 8.7 8.6 12.6 9.9 8.2 11.8 10.2 8.6 11.2 QIII 4.8 5.2 6.0 Semi-annual QIII '76-QI '77 QI '77-QIII '77 5.2 5.7 11.8 8.2 11.5 8.4 11.1 8.8 13.5 9.2 13.1 9.5 12.8 10.1 Annual QIII '76-QIII '77 5.5 10.3 10.2 10.2 11.6 11.6 11.8 FOMC Longer-run Range QIII '76-QIII '77 4 -6 9-11 10.0 9.9 -5bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 November December January 794.0 802.7 809.3 794.0 802.7 808.4 794.0 802.7 807.6 1285.5 1299.5 1312.3 1285.5 1299.5] 1310.8 1285.5 1299.5 1309.8 534.4 537.8 541.6 534.4 537.8 541.0 534.4 537.8 540.5 1976 QIII 776.3 794.9 776.3 794.9 776.3 794.9 1247.9 1286.2 1247.9 1286.2 1247.9 1286.2 523.2 533.6 523.2 533.6 523.2 533.6 815.9 833.1 849.2 814.7 831.9 848.9 813.3 829.4 847.5 1325.2 1357.0 1385.6 1322.8 1355.5 1385.3 1320.9 1352.2 1385.8 545.5 555.1 567.2 544.7 554.4 567.0 543.7 552.3 565.6 13.1 9.9 13.1 8.5 13.1 7.3 QIV 1977 QI QII QIII Growth Rates Monthly: 1976 December January 13.1 11.8 13.1 10.4 13.1 9.5 7.6 7.1 7.6 6.0 Quarterly Averages: 1976 QIV 1977 QI QII QIII Semi-annual QIII '76-QI '77 QI '77-QIII '77 Annual QtII '76-QIII '77 9.6 9.6 12.3 12.3 12.3 8.0 8.0 8.0 10.6 8.4 7.7 10.0 8.4 8.2 9.3 7.9 8.7 12.1 9.6 8.4 11.4 9.9 8.8 10.8 9.5 9.9 8.9 7.0 8.7 8.3 7.1 9.1 7.6 6.3 9.6 10.2 8.2 9.9 8.4 9.5 8.4 12.4 9.1 12.0 9.4 11.7 9.8 8.5 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.8 8.1 9.4 9.4 9.2 11.0 11.0 11.1 8.4 8.4 8.1 -6per cent annual rate range. This reflects continued rapid expansion in time and savings deposits other than money market CD's at banks. The rate of growth in such deposits, however, is not expected to accelerate from the pace of recent months despite recent declines in market interest rates, as banks appear to be in process of lowering offering rates on certain time certificates. (9) Basically, credit demands over the next few weeks and into early 1977 are likely to be generally moderate and will probably have little net impact on the current level of market rates. Market participants, however, remain quite sensitive to possible monetary actions. For example, with the 3-month bill rate about 35 basis points below the funds rate and dealer holdings of securities large, it appears that the market is expecting a lower funds rate. Thus, if the funds rate does not decline further, there could be a technical re-adjustment in rate structure. On Bill rates could rise somewhat. the other hand, the primary mortgage rate is likely to decline over the next few weeks--even assuming no change in the funds rate--in lagged response to earlier declines in market rates. (10) As time goes on, and the pace of economic activity picks up, private credit demands are likely to strengthen. Treasury borrowing needs in the first quarter will be substantial and perhaps more than the market is currently anticipating. Against this back- ground, we would expect interest rates to begin rising by spring of next year if growth in M1 is kept to around the mid-point of the -74½-6½ per cent range adopted by the FOMC for the QIII '76-QIII '77 period. If growth in GNP during the first three quarters of 1977 is at about the 11 per cent annual rate projected by the staff on the assumption that taxes are cut, we would anticipate that the funds rate may rise to an average of around 6 per cent in the third quarter of next year, as shown in appendix table II. On the other hand, if there were no additional fiscal stimulus, we would expect a smaller rise in interest rates from current levels--perhaps an increase in the funds rate to 5¼ per cent or so by the third quarter. This would of course,mainly reflect the weaker expansion in nominal GNP and transactions demand for money. (11) Alternative A involves an easing of the money market between now and the next Committee meeting, with the funds rate dropping to the mid-point of a 3¾-4½ per cent range. Further declines in market rates are likely to be generated, though such declines will be limited if incoming economic evidence continues to suggest a more vigorous economy and therefore leads market participants to believe that interest rates may soon rise. Banks, in such circumstances, may seek to issue money market CD's more aggressively--particularly longer maturities--in an effort to lock in favorable yields. And corporate and municipal borrowers may continue to accelerate marketings of new bond issues. (12) An easing of the money market would generate only slightly more growth in M1 and M2 over the December-January period than under alternative B. However, the lower level of market rates will, with a lag, tend to strengthen the demand for money further. Thus, M1 growth over the longer-run would likely be higher than the mid-point of the Committee's one-year range. As a result, to contain growth within desired bounds interest rates under this alternative may have to rise to somewhat higher levels than under alternative B and the rise may begin sooner. (13) Alternative C contemplates a tightening in the money market over the next few weeks, with the funds rate rising to around 5-1/8 per cent. A substantial upward re-adjustment of market rates would be likely to follow, since most market participants appear to have adjusted their current positions to expectations that the funds rate will either decline or remain about unchanged over the near-term. The 3-month bill rate, for example, might move up to the area of 5-5¼ per cent. After the initial reaction, however, further rate increases might be quite limited. Some rate increases, particularly in longer- term markets, could be partly reversed as the funds rate tended to level off at the new higher level. The staff would expect that little further increase in the funds rate would, in practice, be required to achieve the FOMC's longer-run monetary growth rates. Proposed directive (14) Given below is a proposed operational paragraph for the directive if the Committee wishes to continue formulating its instructions in terms of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead. No alternatives are presented for this formulation, in the expectation that the reference to desired growth will be taken to apply to the longer-term targets and that at this meeting the Committee will not reconsider those targets. "Monetary Aggregates" Proposal To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead. (15) Should the Committee desire to place main emphasis on bank reserve and money market conditions, the language needed would depend on the specific conditions sought. Three alternative "money market" directives intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives are given below. Alternative "Money Market" Proposals Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT EASIER bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL: consistent with moderate growth inmonetary aggregates] -10over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee achieve]MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market seeks to [DEL: aggregates] monetary in consistent with moderate growth conditions [DEL: over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of developments in domestic and international financial markets, the Committee seeks to achieve SOMEWHAT FIRMER bank reserve and money market consistent with moderate conditions [DEL: over the period IMMEDIATELY ahead, growth in monetary aggregates] PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED. APPENDIX A Comparison of Actual and Targeted Reserves The table below compares the actual average level of reserves for the five-week period ending December 22 with the "targeted" level that had been thought consistent with the mid-points of the short-run ranges for the monetary aggregates adopted at the last FOMC meeting. Actual 1/ (2+3) (4-5) 34,879 34,619 260 Required reserves 34,701 34,448 253 178 171 7 243 228 15 Free reserves 65 Member bank borrowing (6+7) Differences Nonborrowed reserves Excess reserves (1+5) Targeted 8 57 34,944 34,676 268 Currency 83,436 83,510 -74 Monetary base 118,380 118,186 194 Total reserves As can be seen from the table, actual nonborrowed reserves were $260 million higher than the "targeted" level. This developed as the Desk provided the reserves required to support unexpected increases in negotiable CD's and interbank deposits. Total reserves and the monetary base were also higher than expected. But the monetary base was somewhat nearer the targeted level, as currency expanded less than expected. 1/ Includes week of December 22, which is partly estimated. Appendix Table I Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives (seasonally adjusted) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A -65 Alt. B -101 34,814 34,778 34,725 38 51 79 273 250 225 30 34,852 34,829 34,804 -92 Monetary base1/ 119,198 119,176 119,150 818 796 Nonborrowed monetary base 119,160 119,125 119,071 845 810 Nonborrowed reserves Member bank borrowing Excess reserves 2-month Annual Percentage Growth Rate for Dec.-Jan. Change from average of previous 5-week period ($ million) Average of 4 weeks Dec. 29 to Jan. 19 ($ million) -27 Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.1 770 7.5 7.4 7.3 756 7.8 7.6 7.3 -154 -14 14 7 -18 Other reserve aggregates: Total reserves 1/ -115 -140 Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks. C Appendix Table II Projected Federal Funds Rates Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1976 QIV 4-7/8 4-7/8 4-7/8 1977 QI 4-3/8 4-5/8 5-1/8 QII 54 5k 5k QIII 6k 6 5% Appendix Table III Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change in an annual rate) M 1973 I 3.6 Q M Q 7.4 7.3 9.2 8.4 10.3 6.4 9.9 8.2 9.8 8.5 II 10.1 III 1.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 6.1 7.8 IV 7.8 5.1 10.5 9.0 9.9 8.4 QIV '72-QIV '73 6.0 6.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 I 5.3 6.0 9.0 9.6 8.4 8.9 II 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.4 5.7 6.5 III 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 IV 4.7 4.0 6.6 6.4 7.2 6.5 QIV '73-QIV '74 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.7 6.8 7.1 1975 I 1.4 0.6 6.9 5.6 9.0 7.5 II 9.7 7.4 III 3.6 7.1 6.5 IV 1.6 2.3 7.0 QIV '74-QIV '75 4.1 4.4 1976 I 4.5 2.7 II 6.8 8.4 9.3 III 4.1 4.1 10.3 1974 M- 10.2 14.5 12.6 10.1 10.7 13.3 6.4 9.3 9.4 8.5 8.3 11.3 11.1 11.0 9.7 12.3 11.2 10.8 11.0 12.0 9.2 13.1 11.6 12.5 Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. CHART 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY 12/17/76 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 320 III II i~ x BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 740 730 720 710 700 1975 1976 A S 0 1976 N D CHART 2 12/17/76 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -540 S520 -500 I I I I I I I I I I I I 0I 0 I RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 37 35 NONBORROWED 33 S. 1975 1976 Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinutties associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios. 12/17/76 CHART 3 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS F.R. DISCOUNT RATE INTEREST RATES Long-term PER CENT -1 B -4 7 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 1975 1978 1975 1976 1975 1976 PER CENT Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES 17, 1976 DEC. ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (M2) (MI) Period Total 3 4 5 Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CCD' s Total total h 8 7 6 Nondeposit Member Sources of U. Funds uvinnd Depositsi Dp0Sits 9 11 10 LEVELS-SBIL 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. I Total U.S. Govt. eposits 2 1 MONTHLY Adjusted Credit Proxy 306.3 309.8 309.8 1310.9) 716.4 725.8 732.0 4739.41 (537.8) I 6.8 4.1 6.0) ( 9.3 10.3 12.8) 4.9 0.9 10.9) ( 8.4 4.1 5.6) ( 10.8 9.2 12.1) ( 2.4 3.8 8.0) ( -0.4 13.7 0.0 4.3) ( 9.5 15.7 10.3 12.1) ( 2.3 11.7 13.2 7.6) ( 2.1) ( 11.2) ( 10.4) 523.5 528.6 534.4 ( 13.1 13.9 13.5 9.4) 472.5 478.0 484.2 (491.8) 410.1 416.0 422.2 t428.5) 187.9 192.6 196.8 1201.3) 222.2 223.5 225.4 (227.3) 1 11.3 15.0 17.9) ( 13.6 19.0 28.5)1 9.5 11.7 9.2) ( -14.2 -46.5 5.1) ( 12.5 13.2 17.01 I 21.7 13.4 26.9) ( 5.1 12.7 8.9) ( -30.6 -26.2 -18.9) ( 22.8 30.0 26.2 27.4) 1 12.0 7.0 10.2 10.1) ( -37.3 -7.7 1.9 21.3) ( 27.1) ( 10.2) I 11.61 62.4 62.0 62.1 (63.2) ( 8.2 9.0 9.1 8.9) ( 3.8 3.4 4.5 2.9) ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. ( 7.3 5.7 16.3) ( 5.3 7.1 12.2) I 9.7 14.0 15.6 18.8) ( 16.9 17.3 17.9 17.9) 7.3) I 18.0) QUARTERLY-AV 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. MONTHLY 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. NOV.-DEC. WEEKLY 1 LEVELS-sBIL 1976-NOV. DEC. NOTE: 1/ P - 1 3 10 17 24 1 8 P 310.2 310.5 310.8 307.6 728.9 731.1 732.5 731.0 532.6 531.7 535.0 534.4 14.9 15.4 14.2 12.2 480.1 482.1 483.7 485.8 418.8 420.6 421.6 423.4 194.6 196.0 196.7 197.6 224.2 224.6 225.0 225.8 61.3 61.5 62.0 62.4 9.5 8.7 8.6 9.4 4.0 4.4 5.3 5.0 310.4 311.2 735.2 737.5 537.1 538.1 11.8 8.9 487.6 489.5 424.8 426.4 198.3 199.9 226.5 226.5 62.7 63.1 9.4 8.9 3.5 4.0 DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUOES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL PRELIMINARY , RESERVE BANKS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 DEC. BANK RESERVES 17, 1976 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period Total Reserves RESERVES _REQUIRED Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand 116,201 116,891 117,899 (118,678) 34,159 34,(67 34,Z21 (34,634) 20,153 20,131 20,336 12C 092) Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 2 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS PERCENT ANNUAL 34,298 34,393 34,819 (34,825) 34,360 349487 34,891 (34,8971 1976--SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 11,653 11,695 11,749 (11920) 2,353 2,441 2,537 I 2,b22) GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. 3.9 0.3 S6.3) ( 3.1 1.0 6.11 B 0.5 3.0 4.11 ( 8.8 5.4 8.5) ( 4.0 0.4 5.61 I 1.2 2.8 3.5) B 6.0 4.0 -1.2) -1.0 -6.4 ( 9.2) QUARTERLY-AV 0.8 3.0 3.9) 1976-2ND QTR. 3RD OTR. 4TH QTR. ( 8.5 6.0 7.3) ( 4.2 3.6 1.9) 1 -4.4 -0.b -1.0) MONTHLY 1976-SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. NOV.-DEC. WEEKLY -4.4 3.3 14.9 0.2) 4.5 7.1 10.3 7.9) 1 7.1) 7.5) 9.2) -5.5 3.8 12.4 0.5) ( ( 6.4) -14.6 4.3 5.5 S 17.5) -0.8 -1.3 12.2 -14.4) 1 -1.2) ( 11.5) LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1976-NOV. DEC. NOTE: 1 -5.7 4.4 14.1 0.2) 3 10 17 24 34,920 34,422 35,233 34,631 34,718 34,372 35,179 34,587 117,674 117,216 118,184 117,753 34,459 34,400 34,799 34,486 20,22B 20,266 20,509 20,279 11,698 11,714 11,726 11,778 2,532 1 8 15 35,331 34,641 35,234 35,243 34,616 35,166 118,644 117,898 118.862 34,913 34,467 34,805 20,333 19,673 20,286 11,806 11,859 11,899 2,774 2,735 2.619 a I I b - 2,418 2,564 2,429 a RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. -- RATIO. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 17, 1976 TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES-1/ ($ millions, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 -490 7,232 1,280 -468 1975--Qtr. III Qtr. IV -757 1,294 1976--Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. III -363 2,067 45 1,845 1976--June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 1976--Oct. Nov. Dec. 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ Within 1-year 13 74 1 - 5 Over 10 5 - 10 Total 789 579 797 3,284 539 500 434 1,510 167 129 196 1,070 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 712 385 201 234 171 315 1,096 1,006 Within 1-year Federal Aencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 1 5 - 10 10 592 400 1,665 824 64 58 514 141 83 617 195 -- 63 14 747 284 1,060 2,626 2,392 -1,403 1,022 3,371 1,398 1,256 1,654 392 -- - -- - -- 2,735 1,351 -- -- -- -- -- -2,040 ---- 65 95 480 1,077 --- -- -- -- 1,484 1,954 -2,334 2,093 633 409 -1,742 41 37 36 115 -377 -3,930 -- -- -- -- -- 648 255 363 - - - - - - -3 -13,110 10,061 -2,158 -1,797 --- --- --- --- --- --- -- -- - - - 41 37 36 418 -733 113 62 73 266 -- - 18 90 - 240 --- 85 --- 41 - 456 - - -- -- - -518 -1,025 -434 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 -- 72 272 l 8 15 22p 29 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 990 301 580 -200 -535 92 54 1,059 864 3,082 1,613 96 -- 42 129 3 10 17 24 168 101 318 138 1,052 1,284 1,557 -2,000 1,100 954 6 13 20 27 106 71 Total S - - - ---- -- - --- Net Chang Outright Holdings Net Total 5/ RP's 6/ -- - --- -- -199 ----535 ---91 115 ---- 171 ----292 ----1,033 ----267 3,597 -4,105 -588 3,462 -6,290 3,102 3,384 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC DECEMBER 17, 1976 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) U. S. Govt. Security Dealer Positions Member Bank Reserve Positions Borrowing at FRB** Basic Reserve Deficit Underwriting Syndicate Positions Corporate Municipal Bonds (3) Bonds (4) Excess** | Reserves (5) Total (6) Seasonal (7) 8 New York (8) 38 Others (9) 2,845 253 804 -42 509 17 74 5 -7,387 -1,757 -11,632 *8,896 3,668 2,904 175 655 -180 242 24 34 8 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 - 6,908 1975--Nov. Dec. 4,751 4,822 2,073 1,075 251 265 60 L30 29 14 -3,812 -2,811 -10,159 -10,418 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4,959 5,214 5,910 1,220 1,051 778 232 256 223 79 81 54 9 10 8 -3,581 -4,138 -4,726 -10,015 Apr. May June 5,750 4,239 4,996 605 591 582 155 210 214 43 114 L27 10 11 20 -5,179 -4,402 -4,219 -10,783 - 8,151 - 9,158 July Aug. Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 234 207 205 L32 LOO 63 25 31 31 -4,756 -4,624 -5,703 - 9,399 6,271 *6,876 1,832 *2,418 221 28 9p 32 22p -6,428 -6,289 -10,527 -11,618 Bills (1) Coupon Issues (2) 1975--High Low 7.029 1,586 1976-High Low Oct. Nov. 94 3 7 p - 7,207 - 9,746 - 9,640 - 9,691 - 9,716 1976--Oct. 6 13 20 27 7,020 5,549 5,740 6,254 1,896 2,117 1,893 1,653 334 212 99 111 L01 47 48 L19 34 33 29 33 -6,718 -7,911 -5.813 -5,098 - 9,037 -11,640 -10,835 -10,484 Nov. 3 10 17 24 6.106 7.818 6,894 *6,480 1,355 2,904 2,417 *2,441 461 22 434 145 202 51 54 44 30 24 21 21 -5,730 -8,030 -7,059 -5,479 -10,276 1 8 15 22 29 *6,402 *7,927 *8,896 *2,359 *2,611 *1,932 418p 7 1 4p 487p 19p 14p 15p -5,146 -7,067p -7,991p -10,845 2 -1 ,375p -12,414p Dec. 88p 25p 69p -12,664 -11,985 -11,665 NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve dificit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * ** STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) Federal Funds 1) Shot-er Treasury Bills 90-119 Day Commercial 90-Day 1-Year Paper (4) (2) (3) CD's New Issue-NYC 60-Day I90-Day (5) (6) DECEMBER 17, 1976 Aaa Utility New Recently Issue Offered (7) (8) Municipal Bond Buyer (9) Long-Term U.S. Govt. 20Yr. Constant Maturity (10) FNMA Auction Yield (11) GNMA Guaranteed Securities (12) 1975--High Low 7.70 5.13 6.68 5.02 7.31 5.46 8.43 5.38 7.88 5.25 7.75 5.38 9.80 8.89 9.71 9.06 7.67 6.27 9.95 8.78 9.10 7.93 1976--High Low 5.58 4.67 5.53 4.37 6.32 4.65 5.90 4.65 5.63 4.40 5.75 4.50 8.95 7.93 8.94 7.94 7.13 5.95 9.20 8.51 8.45 7.60 1975--Nov. Dec. 5.22 5.20 5.48 5.44 6.07 6.16 5.78 5.88 5.69 5.65 6.03 5.83 9.20 9.36 9.26 9.21 7.43 7.31 9.80 9.31 8.50 8.56 1976--Jan. Feb. Mar. 4.87 4.77 4.84 4.87 4.88 5.00 5.44 5.53 5.82 5.15 5.13 5.25 4.91 4.84 5.05 5.03 5.06 5.20 8.70 8.63 8.62 8.79 8.63 8.61 7.07 6.94 6.92 9.10 9.06 9.05 8.37 8.29 8.30 Apr. May June 4.82 5.29 5.48 4.86 5.20 5.41 5.54 5.98 6.12 5.08 5.44 5.83 4.81 5.25 5.55 4.94 5.38 5.68 8.48 8.82 8.72 8.52 8.77 8.73 6.60 6.87 6.87 8.89 9.09 9.13 8.10 8.33 8.35 July Aug. Sept. 5.31 5.29 5.25 5.23 5.14 5.08 5.82 5.64 5.50 5.54 5.35 5.33 5.30 5.23 5.11 5.42 5.31 5.24 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 6.79 6.61 6.51 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.37 8.30 8.10 Oct. Nov. 5.03 4.95 4.92 4.75 5.19 5.00 5.10 4.98 4.90 4.84 5.04 4.94 8.25r 8.17 8.24 8.18 6.30 6.29 8.75 8.66 7.98 7.93 5.07 4.94 4.82 4.89 5.39 5.18 5.06 5.18 5.25 5.19 5.05 5.00 5.10 4.88 4.83 4.80 5.20 5.00 4.91 5.05 8.26 8.15 8.28 8.29 8.23 8.20 8.25 8.27 6.33 6.25 6.30 6.33 8.80 27 5.17 5.02 4.97 4.99 8.06 7.96 7.89 8.02 3 10 17 24 5.06 4.98 5.02 4.90 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.67 5.16 5.16 5.12 4.89 5.00 5.08 5.13 4.90 4.85 4.95 4.95 4.63 5.03 5.06 5.05 4.63 -8.31 8.24 8.05 8.23 8.28 8.18 8.04 6.34 6.39 6.26 6.16 8.67 1 8 15 22 29 4.78 4.67 4.68 4.46 4.40 4.37 4.68 4.65 4.66 4.75 4.68 4.65 4.54 4.54 4.40 4.50 4.50 4.50 7.95 7.93 7.95p 7.97 7.94 7.99p 6.03 5.96 5.95 9 16 4.69 4.65p 4.44 4.33 4.70 4.67 4.63 4.75 1976--Oct. 6 13 20 Nov. Dec. Dec. 8.70 8.68 7.39 7.32 7.34p 8.02 8.02 8.02 7.84 7.75 7.62 7.60 4,43 7.34 7.34(12/15) NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 and 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 8 and 9 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 12 is a 1-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. APPENDIX TABLE 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES BANK CREDIT BANK RESERVES 1 Total Loans Adj. Total on borowd and Investments Credit proxy Monetary Base "'.... . Mi . 1 M2 M3 M4 M5 a 9 . 1U ~ . 4 o (Per cent annual rates of growth) 2 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES MEASURES Period E C.17, D M6 .. 11 M 7 1Z ANNUALLY: 6.7 7.1 1973 1974 1975 -0.4 10.5 10.2 3.9 6.0 9.2 1.3 7.7 9.2 5.8 1.7 0.9 5.6 5.7 4.5 3.1 -1.2 6.7 3.1 11.6 10.6 6.4 10.6 6.5 8.8 6.8 11.3 9.8 6.8 11.9 10.1 11.8 9.7 10.8 8.8 10.7 11.7 9.U 10.6 6.9 5.7 9.9 9.2 10.1 10.8 10.0 10.6 5.9 8.9 9.0 10.0 11.7 8.3 8.3 9.5 9.0 10.L 5.0 U.1 9.4 9.7 9.0 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1975 1975 -1.2 1ST HALF 1976 -1.2 0.3 10.3 9.4 QUARTERLY: 1975 1.4 4.5 7.3 7.0 7.0 1ST QTR. 1976 2ND QTR. 1976 3RD QTR. 1976 -6.2 3.9 0.3 -5.3 3.1 1.0 4.6 8.8 5.4 1.2 4.9 0.9 11.0 9.3 10.3 12.3 11.0 13.1 9.4 6.7 9.4 11.0 10.9 5.4 6.6 5.9 8.4 9.3 9.4 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.7 4TH QTR. 9.3 8.4 4.6 7.1 1d.1 9.0 QUARTERLY-AV 4TH QTR. 1975 0.6 2.7 5.6 6.0 6.4 1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 3RD QTR. 1976 1976 1976 -3.8 0.8 3.0 -3.2 0.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 6.0 2.3 2.4 3.8 9.7 10.8 9.2 11.2 12.0 11.6 9.7 0.8 14.3 -1.6 11.1 7.0 14.4 0.7 11.5 4.0 11.9 7.1 11.7 5.3 12.1 7.7 14.4 8.8 15.0 9.6 -10.2 -6.8 -1.7 0.7 4.0 7.0 1.8 4.8 -5.7 4.4 14.1 U -8.4 -6.9 -0.8 1.1 1.5 6.6 1.6 6.0 -4.4 3.3 14.9 2.6 4.0 7.0 12.2 7.0 6.9 5.2 6.5 4.5 7.1 10.3 C mU -0.7 3.5 0.9 3.0 -4.6 16.3 3.0 -2.5 2.3 11.7 13.2 10.3 14.1 8.3 14.4 11.6 14.4 10.5 14.4 10.5 7.7 13.0 12.7 13.2 16.5 11.6 3.2 6.6 3.8 10.3 2.7 8.2 9.0 0.3 5.7 14.0 9.3 7.0 9.5 7.7 11.8 7.4 9.2 b6.0 11.6 6.9 9.8 12.0 6.3 b.4 13.6 10.1 7.5 9.0 8.1 11.9 7.8 10.7 12.3 6.2 8.2 13.4 MONTHL Y 1975-NOV. DEC. 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P NOTESs 1/ P - U a 8.5 I * a ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS RELATED INSTITUTIONS. AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUI PRELIMINARY 4.8 11.9 9.2 9.5 15.7 10.3 I mimi SUBJECT TO RESERVE 6.6 9.7 11.1 7.1 10.6 15.3 11.1 II I I -a a a .a REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD TO BANK- 10.5 APPENDIX TABLE 1-B MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES DEC. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BANK CREDIT MEASURES BANK RESERVES 17, 1976 MONEY STOCK MEASURES Non borrowed Monetary Base Adj. Crdit proxy Total Loans and Investments M1 M2 M M M5 M6 M7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 32,390 34,693 34,539 31,092 33,966 34,409 96,051 104,892 110,930 449.4 495.3 514.4 637.7 695.2 725.5 270.5 283.1 294.8 571.4 612.4 664.3 919.5 981.6 1092.9 634.9 702.2 7,7.2 982.9 1071.4 1175.8 10bo., 1181.8 1308.7 1121.1 1222.a 1351.4 1975-NOV. DEC. 34,515 34,539 34,455 34,409 110,287 110,930 514.1 514.4 726.9 725.5 295.6 294.8 662.1 664.3 1086.5 1092.9 743.9 747.2 1168.3 1175.8 1299.2 1308.7 1340.7 1351.4 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 34,245 34,052 34,003 34,167 33,971 33,949 111,171 111,538 112,192 514.1 515.6 516.0 727.6 731.2 735.4 295.1 296.6 298.1 670.0 677.9 682.6 1103.5 1116.7 1126.5 749.2 753.3 755.7 1182.7 1192.1 1199.7 1316.8 1326.9 1335.7 1359.9 1370.1 1379.3 APR. MAY JUNE 34,024 34,136 34,335 33,980 34,022 34,209 113,333 113,994 114,653 517.3 515.3 522.3 738.7 742.0 743.3 301.8 303.5 303.2 690.8 695.7 698.5 1140.0 1150.0 1157.4 762.2 763.9 769.1 1211.5 1218.2 1228.0 1346.6 1356.3 1367.4 1393.0 1402.1 1414.6 JULY AUG. SEPT. 34,387 34,524 34,360 34,254 34,424 34,298 115,151 115,770 116,201 523.6 522.5 523.5 747.6 752.7 756.4 304.9 306.4 306.3 705.4 716.8 716.4 1169.9 1182.3 1195.3 774.9 775.1 778.8 1239.4 1246.7 1257.7 1361.1 1388.3 1398.0 1429.1 1436.5 1446.3 OCT. NOV. P 34,487 34,891 34,393 341819 116,891 117,899 528.6 534.4 764.1 770.1 309.8 309.8 725.8 732.0 1211.7 1223.4 787.9 794.0 1273.7 1285. 1413.8 1425.7 1462.5 1475.3 13 20 27 34,033 34,766 34,343 33,986 34,718 34,223 116,344 117,159 116,666 527.1 529.2 529.7 310.8 308.7 310.0 725.7 724.4 727.5 788.1 786.3 788.9 3 10 17 24 34,920 34,422 35,233 34,631 34,718 34,372 35,179 34,587 117,674 117,216 118,184 117,753 532.6 531.7 535.0 534.4 310.2 310.5 310.8 307.6 728.9 731.1 732.5 731.0 790.3 792.6 794.5 793.4 35,331 34,641 35,243 34,616 118,644 117,898 537.1 538.1 310.4 311.2 735.2 737.5 797.9 800.7 Period To t a ANNUALLY: 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: WEEKLY: 1976-OCT. NOV. DEC. NOTES: 1P 8P ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, LOANS SOLD 10 BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS. WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMEN1 WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR N3 M5 M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY 1976 17, DEC. APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Timeind Period Currency 1 nd Dp oand sts m 2 Other Thn CD's T ot l a 3 TtriodL Total Savings I 4 ANNUALLY 1973 1974 1975 Mutual Savings Deposits Other Credit Savings CD' s Bn Shares 5 6 7 8 (Per cent annal rates of grOwth) Unin re s :h Savings Bonds l Short Ter Commercial pe j / USc u r s Irecuritie / 9 10 11 8.1 10.2 8.7 5.3 3.0 2.6 16.2 15.0 7.9 11.4 9.4 12.2 2.8 7.0 17.8 18.7 11.2 8.2 45.6 41.4 -7.7 8.5 5.6 15.6 13.8 12.1 20.2 4.9 4.8 6.3 25.2 9.0 39., 12 5I .. 16.b i.7 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1975 1975 9.4 7.6 4.4 0.9 7.8 7.8 13.4 10.4 18.2 16.0 10.0 6.1 -12.7 -2.9 15.2 15.2 20.9 17.6 6.0 6.4 21.7 51.7 1ST HALF 1976 10.6 4.2 6.0 13.9 23.6 6.6 -29.7 14.0 16.8 6.2 13.1 21.1 -1.1 12.9 11.6 15.8 b.2 19.2 12.5 17.6 6.6 51.5 i4.9 5.9 5.3 QUARTERLY: 4TH QTR. 1975 9.4 IST QTR. 2ND OTR. 3RD OTR. 1976 1976 1976 10.9 10.0 7.7 2.5 5.8 2.8 4.6 7.3 5.7 16.0 11.3 15.0 32.4 13.6 19.0 3.6 9.5 11.7 -46.8 -14.2 -46.5 14.3 13.2 17.6 16.8 16.1 16.6 5.9 6.* 8.1 12.8 13.0 -Z.3 8.4 33.0 9 .3 QUARTERLY-AV: 4TH QTR. 1975 8.4 0.2 9.7 9.8 14.4 6.6 9.5 14.0 16.5 6.1 48.1 7.9 1ST QTR. 2NO QTR. 3RD QTR. 1976 1976 1976 9.8 11.7 7.3 0.5 7.4 2.8 7.2 5.3 7.1 15.3 12.5 13.2 26.3 21.7 13.4 5.6 5.1 12.7 -29.3 -30.6 -26.2 13.4 13.8 15.4 17.1 16.4 15.7 6.6 5.9 7.5 22.7 13.1 10.4 17.3 23.1 21.0 1975-NOV. DEC. 13.2 4.9 7.1 -5.9 13.5 11.0 13.6 10.1 14.6 20.5 12.8 1.7 13.4 16.1 12.4 11.3 14.8 18.3 5.4 7.2 69.4 31.9 32.7 34.7 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. P 8.1 12.9 11.2 15.9 9.4 4.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 10.6 7.5 -0.5 3.8 4.3 15.1 5.3 -3.2 6.4 5.3 -3.2 14.8 -2.1 4.5 6.9 2.4 7.3 0.0 14.3 10.6 -3.3 9.7 14.0 15.6 17.2 20.5 9.8 14.0 10.2 9.5 15.5 12.0 16.9 17.3 17.9 26.9 44.6 23.3 22.1 18.3 0.0 11.4 21.9 22.8 30.0 26.2 10.3 2.3 -1.7 8.0 3.4 16.9 18.9 3.8 12.0 7.0 10.2 -53.6 -57.6 -35.0 -27.9 -55.4 42.2 -17.0 -89.7 -37.3 -7.7 1.9 13.4 14.7 14.2 14.1 13.3 11.7 14.5 18.8 18.8 17.1 13.7 18.0 10.7 21.1 13.8 13.7 20.3 10.0 19.8 19.5 19.1 12.6 5.3 7.1 5.3 5.3 7.0 7.0 5.2 10.3 8.5 5.1 6.8 14.6 5.4 18.0 12.4 10.5 15.6 3'.3 -10.0 -30.3 -10.3 -3.5 11 .2 5 . 6.3 22.0 37.6 36.7 20.3 5.0 2.5 9.9 19.7 MONTHLY: 1/ P - GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. PRELIMINARY. LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF DEC. APPENDIX TABLE 2-B 17, 1976 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Time and Savings Deposits Demand Deposits Periodncy 1 2 Total 3 Other Than CD's Total 4 ISavings 5 Other 6 CD's 7 Mutual Credit Savings Union Savings Bank & S&L Shares Bonds c i / 1 Shares0 9 10 8 ShortTerm U.S Gov't Se , 11 Total NonGov't Deposit Funds Demand Deposits 2Sec 1 13 14 12 Commercial Paper ANNUALLY: 209.0 215.3 221.0 364.4 419.1 452.4 300.9 329.3 369.6 127.3 136.2 160.5 173.6 193.1 209.0 63.5 89.8 82.9 323.5 341.6 395.5 24.7 27.7 33.3 00.4 63.3 67.3 43.2 47.1 65.7 34.6 40.4 4..7 7.3 5.6 7.6 1975-NOV. DEC. 222.1 221.0 448.3 452.4 366.5 369.6 157.8 160.5 208.7 209.0 81.8 82.9 391.8 395.5 32.8 33.3 66.9 67.3 64.0 65.7 41.5 42.7 9.6 7.0 1976-JAN. FEB. MAR. 220.9 221.6 222.* 454.1 456.7 457.6 374.9 381.3 384.4 164.1 170.2 173.5 210.8 211.2 210.9 79.2 75.4 73.2 399.9 404.8 409.6 33.8 34.1 34.7 67.6 6d.0 b6.3 66.5 66.8 67.8 43.1 43.3 43.6 8.0 10.9 10.9 APR. MAY JUNE 225.2 226.2 225.6 460.4 460.4 465.9 388.9 392.2 395.3 176.7 179.4 179.4 212.3 212.9 215.9 71.5 68.2 70.6 414.4 419.0 423.1 35.1 35.5 36.1 68.6 69.0 69.4 68.5 69.1 70.0 44.4 45.6 47.2 7.2 7.4 9.a JULY AUG. SEPT. 226.8 227.8 227.2 470.0 468.7 472.5 400.4 404.4 410.1 181.1 184.4 187.9 219.3 220.0 222.2 69.6 64.4 62.4 428.2 434.9 441.7 36.4 37.0 37.6 69.7 70.3 70.8 72.0 71.4 69.6 48.0 46.48.3 9.0 13.6 13.1 OCT. NOV. P 230.0 229.6 478.0 484.2 416.0 422.2 192.6 196.8 223.5 225.4 62.0 62.1 448.0 453.1 38.2 38.6 71.1 71.5 69.0 68.8 48.7 49.5 13.9 13.5 1973 1974 1975 MONTHLY: WEEKLY: 1976-OCT. 13 20 27 231.1 229.0 230.5 477.3 477.7 478.9 414.9 415.7 417.6 192.0 192.4 193.7 222.9 223.3 223.9 62.4 62.0 61.4 13.b 15.6 14.3 NOV. 3 10 17 24 230.2 230.2 230.7 227.3 480.1 482.1 483.7 485.8 418.8 420.6 421.6 423.4 194.6 196.0 196.7 197.6 224.2 224.6 225.0 225.8 61.3 61.5 62.0 62.4 14.9 15.4 14.d 12.2 230.0 230.6 487.6 489.5 424.8 426.4 198.3 199.9 226.5 226.5 62.7 63.1 11.8 8.9 DEC. 1/ 2/ P - IP 8P ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. PRELIMINARY OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.
@FedFRASER