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1
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Strictly Confidential (FR)
Class I FOMC
December 15, 1978
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the staff
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS I - FOMC
December 15
1978
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
Recent developments
(1)
M-1 contracted in November at a 4.6 per cent annual
rate and appears to be growing at only about a 2 per cent annual
rate in December.
Thus, over the two months, M-1 is projected to
decline at a 1¼ per cent annual rate.
Demand for M-1 has been
tempered by the recent substantial increases in market interest
rates, as well as by the introduction of automatic transfer services
(ATS), but the recent weakness appears greater than can be explained
by these factors.
Shifts to ATS accounts are estimated to be reducing
M-1 growth by about 3 percentage points at an annual rate over November
and December.
M-2 growth is projected to slow to about a 5 per
cent rate over November and December, below the low end of the FOMC's
range.
The interest-bearing component of M-2 grew slightly more
rapidly in November than in October, reflecting growth of money market
certificates and the large time deposits in this aggregate.
Small
time deposits subject to fixed rate ceilings declined in November, as
did savings deposits despite the introduction of ATS.
Given the
Comparison of FOMC Policy Ranges for
November-December
to Latest Staff Estimates
M-1
M-2
Federal funds rate
(per cent per annum)
Ranges
Latest Estimates
Upper limit of 5
-1.3
6 to 9½
9¾ to 10
5.0
Avg. for statement
week ending
Nov. 22
9.68
29
9.85
9.87
Dec. 6
9.79
13
weakness in savings deposits, M-l+ is projected to decline at a 4 per
cent annual rate over November and December.
Inflow of deposits to
thrift institutions in November slowed somewhat, even though sales
of money market certificates continued to be robust.
(2)
Following the November FOMC meeting, the Account
Management raised its Federal funds rate target to the 9-7/8 per cent
to 10 per cent range set by the Committee.
midpoint of the 9 3/4
As the
weakness in the monetary aggregates developed, the FOMC voted on
December 8 to maintain the 9-7/8 per cent Federal funds target until
the next meeting, unless the monetary aggregates weakened significantly
further.
Member bank borrowing has varied between $600 and $800 million
in recent weeks, a normal level for the prevailing spread between the
discount and Federal funds rate.
(3)
The trade-weighted exchange value of the dollar has
declined by 1 per cent since the November FOMC meeting, but is currently
about 9 per cent above its October 31 low.
The dollar's declines
against the German mark and Swiss franc have more than offset a small
rise against the Japanese yen.
1/
(4) Despite further increases in the Federal funds rate,
private short-term interest rates have changed little, on balance,
1/
Operations on behalf of Treasury and System accounts resulted in
net purchases of about $2 billion
-3from peak levels reached in the week preceding the November FOMC
meeting.
However, CD rates, as indicated by the highest offering
quotes, are currently below their mid-November peaks, when banks
were issuing CD's in large volume, partly to finance credit extensions to their own foreign branches and to foreign banks.
The 3-
month Treasury bill has risen substantially since the period just
prior to the November meeting, and as a result the unusually wide
spread of private short-term rates over the bill rate has narrowed.
The market supply of these bills for private investors has been
enlarged by the Treasury's decision to shift part of its weekly
bill offerings from the 6-month to the 3-month area, while demand
for bills by foreign institutions has been lower as a result of their
reduced exchange market intervention.
The bank prime rate has
increased 50 basis points since the last FOMC meeting in response
to earlier advances in market rates.
(5) Bond yields rose 10 to 30 basis points in the intermeeting period as a bearish tone developed in capital markets when
published data suggested that economic activity has continued at
a stronger than anticipated pace and inflationary pressures have
remained intense.
Agency and municipal bond new issue volume rose
in November, while the corporate calendar remained moderate.
With
its dollar balances augmented by earlier sales of obligations directly
-4to foreign official accounts, the Treasury raised no new money from
private investors in domestic markets in the intermeeting period.1 /
(6) Loan demands at commercial banks appear to have
remained relatively strong in November.
Business loans expanded at
about their October pace, while real estate and probably consumer
loans increased more rapidly.
To finance loan expansion, banks
issued a substantial volume of large negotiable and nonnegotiable
CD's, and in addition, liquidated security holdings.
The increase
in use of managed liabilities was particularly sharp earlier in the
month when private demands for dollar credits seem to have been
augmented by borrowing in anticipation of possible dollar depreciation.
(7) The demand for residential mortgage credit apparently
has remained quite strong, as indicated by a further rise in mortgage
commitments at S&L's to a record level in October and an estimated
vigorous expansion of mortgage credit in November at both banks and
thrift institutions.
In the face of this continued strong demand,
and with deposit flows slowing, the average rates on new commitments
for conventional mortgages at S&L's have risen 15 basis points to 10.35
per cent since the FOMC meeting.
1/ The Treasury did raise around $550 million of new money from
foreign official accounts through sale of nonmarketable issues
and add-ons to regular auctions. The Treasury also sold $1.6
billion equivalent of M1-denominated securities on December 12.
The proceeds of this issue are being warehoused with the Federal
Reserve with the Treasury's dollar proceeds being added to its
general balance. As the Treasury balance at the Federal Reserve
is reduced, the Desk will, all other things equal, sell Treasury
securities to the public to neutralize the reserve impacts--in
effect substituting Federal Reserve sales of securities for
Treasury issuance of securities in U.S. markets.
-5(8)
The table on the next page shows percentage annual
rates of change in related monetary and financial flows over various
time periods.
1976 &
1977
Average
Past
Twelve
Months
Nov. '78
over
Nov. '77
Past
Six
Months
Nov. '78
over
May '78
Past
Three
Months
Nov. '78
over
Aug. '78
Past
Months
Nov. '78
over
Oct. '78
Nonborrowed reserves
2.0
7.1
8.2
8.3
12.8
Total reserves
3.0
6.6
5.4
3.8
-4.2
Monetary base
7.5
9.1
8.7
9.3
6.1
6.9
7.3
5.7
4.4
-4.6
share draft accounts,
and demand deposits at
mutual savings banks). 11.0
4.9
3.5
2.3
-7.1
10.4
8.1
8.5
8.0
4.3
12.3
9.2
10.3
10.4
6.8
M-4 (M-2 plus CD's)
8.6
10.2
9.5
11.1
12.9
M-5 (M-3 plus CD's)
11.1
10.4
10.8
12.1
12.0
Month-end basis
9.7
11.4
9.5
8.7
6.5
Monthly average
9.5
11.5
11.1
11.6
14.0
-0.4
2.0
1.4
3.0
7.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.8
Concepts of Money
M-1 (Currency plus demand
deposits) 1/
M-1+ (M-l plus savings
deposits at commercial
banks, NOW accounts at
banks and thrift institutions, credit union
M-2 (M-l plus time deposits
at commercial banks
other than large CD's)
M-3 (M-2 plus deposits at
thrift institutions)
Bank Credit
Loans and investments of
all commercial banks 2/
Short-term Market Paper
(Monthly average change
in billions)
Large CD's
Nonbank commercial paper
1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government.
2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches.
NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total
loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or Wednesday statement date
figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are
adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when
reserve requirements are changed.
-7Prospective developments
(9)
Shown below for Committee consideration are two alternative
specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate for
the December-January period.
Alternative A calls for no near-term change
in the Federal funds rate, while alternative B increases policy restraint
marginally in coming weeks.
(More details and longer-term data are
contained in the tables on pp. 8 and 9.)
Alt. A
Alt. B
M-1
2½ to 7½
2 to 7
M-2
6 to 10
5½ to 9½
M-1+
1 to 5
½ to 4½
9½ to 10¼
9¾ to 10½
Ranges for Dec.-Jan.1/
Addenda
Federal funds rate
(Intermeeting period)
(10)
Alternative A presumes a Federal funds rate between
now and the January meeting centered in the prevailing 9¾ to 10 per
cent range.
The staff projects that M-1 will increase only some-
what in December, on a daily average basis, but the evident growth of
income and expenditures suggests that a substantial increase in M-1 is
likely in January.
1/
Consequently, growth in this aggregate over the
Ranges for the forthcoming short-run policy period expressed
in the form recommended by the subcommittee on the directive in
its report distributed to the FOMC are shown in appendix IV for
comparison purposes.
Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates
M-2
M-1+
M-1 1/
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. A
Alt. B
November
December
January
360.6
361.2
363.5
360.6
361.1
363.2
585.3
584.9
588.4
585.3
584.6
587.8
870.5
874.6
881.8
870.5
874.3
881.1
1978
QIII
QIV
357.3
361.3
357.3
361.2
582.6
586.3
582.6
586.2
854.0
870.8
854.0
870.7
1979
QI
QII
QIII
364.3
366.4
368.7
363.9
366.0
368.7
591.5
600.8
610.4
590.7
599.9
610.2
887.2
903.1
919.0
886.3
902.0
918.5
2.0
7.6
1.7
7.0
-0.8
7.2
-1.4
6.6
5.7
9.9
5.2
9.3
4.5
3.3
2.3
2.5
4.4
3.0
2.3
3.0
2.5
3.5
6.3
6.4
2.5
3.1
6.2
6.9
7.9
7.5
7.2
7.0
7.8
7.2
7.1
7.3
3.9
2.4
3.7
2.6
3.1
6.4
2.8
6.6
7.8
7.2
7.6
7.3
3.2
3.2
4.8
4.7
7.6
7.6
1978
1979
Growth Rates
Monthly:
1978
1979
December
January
Quarterly Average:
1978
1979
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
Semi-Annual:
QIII '78-QI '79
QI '79-QIII '79
Annual:
QIII '78-QIII '79
1/
The staff has assumed that over the longer-run policy period from QIII '78 to QIII '79
M-l growth will be reduced 3 percentage points by ATS. In projecting GNP, monetary
aggregates, and interest rates the staff has carried forward the assumption in most
recent Bluebooks that M-l, in the absence of ATS, would increase at a 6k per cent annual
rate over the longer-run. Thus, the observed growth of M-l is expected to be 3k per cent
over the QIII '78 to QIII '79 period.
Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd)
M-3
Bank Credit
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. A
Alt. B
November
December
January
1492.8
1501.9
1514.5
1492.8
1501.5
1513.5
971.6
977.3
985.4
971.6
977.3
984.8
1978
QIII
QIV
1456.1
1493.0
1456.1
1492.9
944.9
969.8
944.9
969.6
1979
QI
QII
QIII
1525.2
1556.6
1587.7
1523.9
1554.8
1586.8
993.6
1016.0
1038.9
992.4
1014.2
1037.5
7.3
10.1
7.0
9.6
7.0
9.9
7.0
9.2
1978
1979
Growth Rates
Monthly:
1978
1979
December
January
Quarterly Average:
1978
QIV
10.1
10.1
10.5
10.5
1979
QI
QII
QIII
8.6
8.2
8.0
8.3
8.1
8.2
9.8
9.0
9.0
9.4
8.8
9.2
9.5
8.2
9.3
8.3
10.3
9.1
10.1
9.1
9.0
9.0
9.9
9.8
Semi-Annual:
QIII '78-QI '79
QI '79-QIII '79
Annual:
QIII '78-QIII '79
-10December-January period is projected to be in a 2½ to 7½ per cent
annual rate range.
Transfers from demand to ATS accounts are expected
to depress M-1 growth over the two-month period by 2 to 4 percentage
points, a bit less than previously assumed.
(11)
If December projections materialize, M-1 growth in
the current quarter will be only about 4
per cent, with ATS effects
reducing growth by about one percentage point.
Thus, even adding
back the effects of ATS, M-1 growth will be the slowest
in over two years.1/
for a quarter
The staff's econometric model suggests that,
given the estimated almost 13 per cent rate of increase in nominal
GNP in the fourth quarter, interest rates can explain only part of the
slowdown in M-1.
It is too early to be certain if this shortfall is
transitory or represents the onset of another downward drift in
money demand associated with more aggressive adoption of cash
management techniques.
The staff's projection for the near term
assumes that underlying money demand will lead to a strengthening of
M-1 growth, but that over the longer run policy period there will
be some continued downward drift in money demand.
(12)
The supplementary aggregate
M-1+ is expected to
expand in a 1 to 5 per cent range over December-January, noticeably
less than M-1, as weakness in non-ATS savings continues to limit
growth in this aggregate.
1/
While the staff is projecting that regular
With the exception of the second quarter of 1978--when nominal GNP
accelerated to over a 20 per cent annual rate as the economy
rebounded from the adverse weather and coal strike during last
winter--the implied V-1 for the current quarter will increase at
its most rapid rate in almost three years. Appendix II displays
projected rates of growth of velocity.
-11passbook accounts at commercial banks will begin to rise in December,
following their unusually large recent contraction, the average level
of such accounts is expected to grow only modestly, if at all, over the
period.
(13)
Under alternative A, M-2 is projected to expand in a
6 to 10 per cent annual rate range in December-January, a somewhat
more rapid pace than in recent weeks.
This acceleration reflects
mainly the expected strengthening of M-1 and the anticipated end of
the recent decline in outstanding savings deposits.
Growth in the
interest-bearing component of M-2 is expected to be at about a 9 to
10 per cent annual rate, with growth almost wholly attributable to
expansion in large time deposits that are not subject to interest
rate ceilings.
(14)
Projected credit demands suggest that banks will be
forced to continue to rely on managed liabilities to supplement their
lendable funds.
Further issuance of large CD's, though at a reduced
rate, is in prospect, as is a resumption of growth in domestic nondeposit liabilities and net Eurodollar borrowing.
Banks thus will
experience mounting balance sheet pressures as borrowing ratios
continue to rise and as further run-offs of bank holdings of
Treasury securities cause liquidity ratios to decline further.
-12(15)
At thrift institutions some further moderation in the
rate of deposit inflows from the pace of the late summer and early fall
is probable in light of higher market yields and the completion of the
stock adjustment of financial assets that accompanied the introduction
of the new 6-month certificates.
Nevertheless, virtually all of the
growth of deposits at S&L's and MSB's is expected to continue to
come from sales of MMC's.
Sample data for early December indicate
that S&L's are not only rolling over their maturing 6-month certificates,
but continuing to issue a substantial net volume of these instruments.
Aggressive marketing of MMC's is being induced by competitive pressures,
by a need for funds to meet mortgage loan commitments, and by FHLB
advances policies.1/
(16)
If the Federal funds rate remains within the 9¾ to 10
per cent range over the intermeeting period, as envisioned under
alternative A, interest rates on short-term market instruments will
likely fluctuate within a narrow range.
Private short-term rates
appear to have fully adjusted to the current funds rate level, and
no significant change in private short-term credit demands appears in
prospect for the weeks immediately ahead.
The relative movement of
Treasury bill rates will, of course, be influenced by the level of
foreign exchange market intervention and the portfolio policies of
foreign official institutions.
1/
The FHLBB has indicated that advances will not be liberally available
to institutions that do not make reasonable efforts to roll over
maturing 6-month certificates.
-13(17)
Yields on longer-term bonds are likely to remain
basically stable into the early weeks of January, barring unexpected
strength in the monetary aggregates or in current economic indicators.
The financing activity of corporations and municipalities is expected
to be seasonally light over the holiday period.
In December, Treasury
financing activities will be confined to roll-overs of maturing 2and 4-year notes.
Net borrowing by the Treasury in the domestic
market over the next several weeks is expected to be limited to a
$1¼ to $1¾ billion auction of 15-year bonds to be conducted around the
turn of the year; since participants are anticipating this offering,
they have presumably already discounted it.1/ With deposit flows
slowing somewhat, yields on commitments for new conventional mortgages
may continue to edge higher.
(18)
Under alternative B, the Federal funds rate would
rise by mid-January to the midpoint of a 9¾ to 10½ per cent range.
M-1 growth would likely be in a 2 to 7 per cent annual rate range over
December-January, and M-1+ and M-2, respectively, in a ½ to 4½ and
5½ to 9½ per cent range.
The resulting increase in short-term market
rates of interest would further slow the growth of deposits subject
to fixed rate ceilings, induce more aggressive offerings of MMC's
and large denomination time deposits, and a tightening of bank lending
terms--with the prime loan rate moving up to 11¾ or 12 per cent.
1/ The Treasury is also expected to issue Swiss franc denominated
notes, amounting to about $1.2 billion equivalent, in the first
part of January.
-14Long-term yields would also probably move up, but the light financing
calendar and further evidence of the System's determination to constrain monetary growth would tend to limit such movement.
(19)
If M-1, as expected, expands at a 4 per cent annual
rate in the fourth quarter, the longer-run growth range for this
aggregate implies an M-1 growth over the first three quarters of 1979
at a 2¾ per cent annual rate.1/
Assuming the staff's current GNP
projections and some downward shift in money demand, the staff believes
that such growth in M-1 is generally consistent with the Federal funds
rate ranges shown in Appendix I.
Reflecting monetary restraint already
in train, the midpoint of alternative A would call for no further rise
in the funds rate over the longer-run policy period.
The alternative
B pattern contemplates that an increase in the funds rate to a little
over 10 per cent in the intermeeting period would be maintained through
the first quarter of 1979.
This additional restraint on monetary
expansion would imply that the funds rate could be lower than the
alternative A path by next summer, while still achieving the same
growth in the aggregates over the QIII '78 to QIII '79 period.
However, if the expected downward drift in money demand does not occur,
higher interest rates than indicated by either Federal funds path would
be required to achieve the desired growth in the aggregates.
1/
This assumes, as did previous Bluebooks, that, in the absence of
ATS, the Committee would desire M-1 growth of 6¼ per cent over the
QIII '78 to QIII '79 policy period. The staff has assumed ATS
will reduce M-1 by 3 percentage points over this period and that
therefore observed M-1 growth is expected to be 3¼ per cent over
this QIII '78 to QIII '79 policy period.
-15Directive language
(20)
Given below are suggested operational paragraphs
for the directive.
The language added last month "giving due
regard ... to the program for supporting the foreign exchange value
of the dollar" has been retained along with the reference, added in
October, "to uncertainties associated with the introduction of ATS."
Alternative language consistent with the short-run specifications of
the alternatives discussed in the preceding section is shown for the
Committee's objective for the Federal funds rate early in the period.
At a later point, alternative language is also provided for placing main
emphasis either on monetary aggregates or, as was agreed at the
November meeting, on money market conditions.
The specifications
adopted last month are shown in strike-through form.
In the short-run, the Committee seeks to achieve
bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates
cited above, while giving due regard to the program for
supporting the foreign exchange value of the dollar, to
developing conditions in domestic financial markets, and to
uncertainties associated with the introduction of ATS.
Early
in the period before the next regular meeting, System open
market operations are to be directed at attaining a weekly
average Federal funds rate
(A)
(B)
AT ABOUT THE CURRENT LEVEL.
slightly above the current level.
-16-
Subsequently, operations shall be directed at maintaining the
weekly average Federal funds rate within the range of {DEL:
9¾-to-10]
____
TO ____ per cent.
In deciding on the specific objective
for the Federal funds rate, the Manager is to be guided mainly
by a range of tolerance for the annual rate of growth over the
[DEL:
November-December]DECEMBER-JANUARY period of[DEL:
6-to-9½]____
____
TO
per cent in M-2, provided that the rate of growth in M-1
does not appear to exceed [DEL:
5] ____per cent.
Money market emphasis
The objective for the funds rate is to be raised or
lowered within its range if the rate of growth of M-2 appears
to be close to or beyond the upper or lower limit of its range.
Weight is to be given to M-1 if it appears to be growing at
a rate close to or above its limit.
If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be
falling outside the limits of the indicated ranges at a time
when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved
to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager will
promptly notify the Chairman, who wil
then decide whether the
situation calls for supplementary instructions from the
Committee.
Monetary aggregates emphasis
The objective for the funds rate is to be raised or
lowered in an orderly fashion within its range if the rate
-17of growth of M-2 appears to be significantly above or below
the midpoint of the indicated range.
Weight is to be given
to M-1 if it appears to be growing at a rate close to or above
its limit.
If the rates of growth in the aggregates appear to be
falling outside the limits of the indicated ranges at a time
when the objective for the funds rate has already been moved
to the corresponding limit of its range, the Manager will
promptly notify the Chairman, who will then decide whether the
situation calls for supplementary instructions from the
Committee.
1
Recently Established M-1 Growth Ranges and Actual M-1
CHART
Billions of dollars
6%
Projection-
-
375
Q3 '78-Q3 '79
-
-
6 5
2 2 % -- 3365
--
S355
SQ2 '78-02 '79
0 0s
335
-
d 4,'%
365
1 365
%%
SQ1 '78-Q1 '79
325 _
/
355
365
335
325_
/
355
Q4 '77-Q4 '78
335
-- 345
-2
325
335
335 -
325
I
1977
I
I
1978
I
I
I
I
I
I
1979
I
325
CHART 2
Recently Established M-2 Growth Ranges and Actual M-2
Billions of dollars
945
Projection -s
g
-
930
Q3'78-Q3
-915
-
900
- 885
- 870
855
'79
885
870
855
S9%
885
01 '78-Q1 '79
e
870
.%%
855
885
-870
-855
Q4'77-Q4/2'78
04 '77-Q4 '78
-840
-825
S810
795
I
1977
1978
1979
I .I 780
Chart 3
Recently Established M-3 Growth Ranges And Actual M-3
Billions of dollars
1640
Projection -io
-
1610
Q3 '78-Q3 '79
- # #
- 1580
"
-
1550
- 1520
1490
7
1520
%%
S1490
1370
- 1550
-1520
1340
'79
1310
-1490
7%%
1370
1550
1340
1520
1310
S1490
-1460
4 '77-% 4 7
04 '77-04 '78
1370
- 1430
1340
1310
_
4nn
1370
1370
1340
1340
1310
'I
I I
I
1977
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1978
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
i
I
I
1979
I
I
I
1310
Chart 4
Recently Established Bank Credit Growth Ranges and Actual Bank Credit
Billions of dollars
11
1055
%
Projection Q3 '78-Q3 '79
- 1035
-
S
X-C-
1015
-
995
S'
-
975
-
955
11A%
0/2 '78-02 '79
1 %u
40
X
l
1975
-
-
875-
%
855 -
4 '
80
975
Q1 '78-Q1 '79
e
835-
.%7/
-
-
8
10 %
835
975
-
955
935
85535
-
915
-
895
875
-
-
855 835
~
04 '77-04 '78
.
875
875
955
935
855
8
955
s
J 935
10-
S---10
875
9 3 5
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1978
I
I
I
I I
I
I
I
I
I
1979
I
I
I
855
835
CHART 5
Recently Established M-1+Growth Range and Actual M-1+
Billions of dollars
7
Projection---
640
7%%
620
Q3 '78-Q3 '79
-.-
5%
600
580
560
I
1977
I
i
I
I 1 I 1 iI
II
1978
I
I
I
I
1979
I
I
I
I
Appendix I
Projected Federal Funds Rate
Alt. A
Alt. B
1978--QIV
94 to 9-5/8
94 to 9-5/8
1979--QI
9k to 10
9-7/8 to 10-3/8
QII
9k to 10
9k to 10
QIII
9k to 10
9 to 9%
Appendix II
Implied Velocity Growth Rate
Alt. A
Alt.
B
V-1 (GNP/M-1)
1978--III
IV
2.6
7.8
(6.7)
1979--1
8.1
6.7
(4.4)
(2.8)
5.7
(2.4)
II
III
(6.7)
8.5
6.7
5.3
(4.9)
(2.8)
(2.1)
V-1+ (GNP/M-1+)
1978--111
IV
1979--I
II
III
V-2 (GNP/M-2)
1978--III
IV
1979--I
II
III
Note:
1.3
4.5
1.3
4.5
4.3
2.0
0.9
Figures in parentheses reflect V-i velocity without ATS.
Appendix Table III-1
MONEY STOCK--M-1
(Annual rates of growth, compounded quarter ly)/
Ending
Period
1975 I
74IV
751
7511
75III
75IV
761
76II
Base Period
76III 76IV
771
7711
_____
77111
77IV
781
7811
2.1
II
4.3
6.5
III
5.2
6.7
7.0
IV
4.6
5.4
4.9
2.9
4.6
5.3
4.8
3.8
4.7
II
5.0
5.6
5.4
4.9
5.9 7.0
III
4.9
5.3
5.1
4.6
5.2 5.4
IV
5.2
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.8 6.2
5.8
5.4
5.8
5.8
5.6
6.1 6.4
6.2
7.4
7.2
II
5.7
6.1
6.1
6.0
6.5
6.9
6.8
7.8
7.9
8.6
III
6.0
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.8
7.1
7.1
7.9
8.0
8.4
8.3
IV
6.1
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.2
7.9
7.9
8.2
8.0
7.7
6.1
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.8
7.1
7.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.4
7.0
6.3
II
6.4
6.8
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.4
7.5
8.0
8.1 8.2
8.1
8.1
8.3
III
6.5
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.2 7.5
7.5
8.0
8.0
8.2
8.1
8.0
8.2
9.1
7.9
IV
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.7
7.0 7.2
7.2
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.6
6.2
1976 I
1977 I
1978 I
78111
* *
* * * * * *
10.3
* ***
1979 III
I/
Alt.
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.1
4.1
3.2
Alt.
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.1
4.1
3.2
Based on quarterly average data.
Appendix Table III-2
MONEY STOCK--M-1+
(Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/
Ending
Period
741V
751
7511
75I11
75IV
1975 I
5.3
II
8.5
11.9
III
9.4
11.6
IV
8.8
10.0
9.8
11.0
10.7
10.4
14.1
1976 I
761
7611
Base Period
7611
76IV
771
7711 7711
77IV
781
9.1
6.9
10.5
11.6
11.5
11.5
13.9
13.8
III
10.1
10.9
10.7
10.6
11.8
10.7
IV
10.7
11.5
11.4
11.5
12.6
12.2
11.3
15.1
11.0
11.7
11.7
11.8
12.8
12.4
12.0
14.1
13.2
II
10.8
11.4
11.3
11.3
12.1
11.7
11.2
12.4
11.1
8.9
III
10.5
11.1
11.0
10.9
11.5
11.1
10.6
11.3
10.1
8.6
8.2
IV
10.2
10.7
10.6
10.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
10.4
9.3
8.0
7.6
7.0
10.1
9.9
10.3
9.8
9.2
9.5
8.4
7.3
6.7
6.0
5.0
7.2
6.8
6.3
6.0
7.0
1978 I
9.8 10.2
II
9.6
III
9.3
IV
8.9
* *
7.7
9.8
9.7
9.9
9.5
9.0
9.1
8.2
9.6
9.5
9.3
9.5
9.1
8.6
8.7
7.8 6.9
6.5
6.1
5.8
6.2
5.4
9.1
9.0
8.8
8.9
8.5
7.9
8.0
7.1
6.3
5.8
5.4
5.0
5.0
4.0
10.0
78111
11.3
II
1977 I
7811
* * * * * * * * * *
1979 III
Alt.
8.4
8.5
8.3
8.1
8.2
7.8
7.4
7.4
6.7
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.2
5.3
4.9
4.8
Alt.
8.3
8.5
8.3
8.1
8.2
7.8
7.4
7.3
6.7
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.2
5.2
4.9
4.7
l/ Based on quarterly average data.
Appendix Table III-3
MONEY STOCK--M-2
(Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)1/
Ending
Period
4IJ
1975 I
6.4
751
LZK
75111
75V
76I
7611
Base Period
76111 76IV
771
II
8.3
10.2
III
8.9
10.2
IV
8.4
9.1
8.6
6.9
8.9
9.6
9.4
9.0
11.1
II
9.2
9.7
9.6
9.4
10.7
10.3
III
9.2
9.6
9.5
9,3
10.2
9.7
9.0
IV
9.7
10.2
10.1
10.1
10.9
10.9
11.2
13.3
9.8
10.2
10.3
10.3
11.0
11.0
11.2
12.3
11.2
II
9.8
10.2
10.2
10.2
10.8
10.7
10.8
11.4
10.4
9.5
III
9.9
10.2
10.2
10.2
10.7
10.6
10.7
11.1
10.3
9.9
IV
9.7
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.4
10.3
10.3
10.5
10.0
9.9
9.8
1976 I
1977 I
1978 I
7711
7711 77IV
781
78II
10.3
10.2
9.8
9.4
9.3
8.3
9.9
9.3
8.8
8.5
7.7
7.0
9.5
9.8
9.7
9.7
II
9.4
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.8
9.7
9.6
9.7
9.1
8.6
8.4
7.8
7.6
III
9.4
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.8
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.1
8.7
8.6
8.2
8.1
9.2
IV
9.3
9,5
9.5
9.4
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.0
8.6
8.5
8.2
8.1
8.7
**
*
**
78111
* * *
* *
1979 III
1/
Alt.
9.0
9.2
9.1
9.0
9.2
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.5
8.3
8.1
7.9
7.8
8.0
7.9
7.6
Alt.
9.0
9.2
9.1
9.0
9.2
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.5
8.3
8.1
7.9
7.8
7.9
7.9
7.6
Based on quarterly average data.
Appendix Table III-4
MONEY STOCK--M-3
(Annual rates of growth, compounded quarterly)Ending
Period
1975 1
____~_~_
74V 251
75I1I 2IV
761
7611
Base Period
76III
7
IllI
mII
771
7711
77111 771v
781
7811
711I
8.3
II
10.6
13.0
III
11.6
13.2
13.5
IV
11.1
12.1
11.6
9.8
11.4
12.2
12.0
11.2
12.7
II
11.6
12.2
12.0
11.6
12.5
12.3
III
11.5
12.1
11.9
11.5
12.1
11.8
11.3
IV
12.0
12.5
12.4
12.2
12.8
12.9
13.2
15.0
12.1
12.5
12.5
12.3
12.8
12.8
13.0
13.9
12.8
11.9
12.3
12.2
12.1
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.8
11.7
10.7
12.0
12.3
12.3
12.1
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.7
12.0
11.6
12.5
11.9
12.2
12.1
12.0
12.3
12.2
12.2
12.4
11.7
11.4
11.8
11.1
11.6
11.9
11,8
11.6
11.8
11.7
11.6
11.6
11.0
10.5
10.5
9.5
7.9
II
11.3
11.6
11.4
11.3
11.4
11.3
11.1
11.1
10.5
10.0
9.0
8.0
8.0
III
11.3
11.5
11.4
11.2
11.3
11.2
11.1
11.0
10.5
10.1
10.0
9.4
8.8
9.2
10.4
IV
11.2
11.4
11.3
11. 1
11.2
11. 1
11.0
11.0
10.5
10.1
10.1
9.6
9.2
9.7
10.5
Alt.
10.8
10.9
10.8
10.6
10.7
10.6
10.4
10.4
9.9
9.7
9.6
9.2
8.9
9.1
9.3
9.0
Alt.
10.8
10.9
10.8
10.6
10.7
10.5
10.4
10.3
9.9
9.6
9.5
9.2
8.9
9.1
9.3
9.0
1976 1
1977 I
IV
1978 I
9.9
10.5
1979 III
1/
Based on quarterly average data.
APPENDIX IV
Alternative Short-run Growth Rates and Federal Funds
Rate Ranges
The table below shows growth rate ranges for M-1 and M-2
expressed as the growth from the average of the three months ending
in October to the average of the three-months ending in January.
These ranges are based on the same staff projections of December and
January as appear in the present two month ranges shown in paragraph 9
of the text.
This three-month averaging procedure is proposed by the
Subcommittee on the Directive, in its December 13 memorandum to the
FOMC
Alt. A
Alt. B
M-l
1-1/4 to 3-1/4
1 to 3
M-2
6 to 7-1/2
Ranges for average of threemonths ending in January
over three-months ending
in October
6 to 7-1/2
Addendum
M-1+
Federal funds rate
(Intermeeting period)
-3/4 to 3/4
-1 to 1/2
9-1/2 to 10-1/4
9-3/4 to 10-1/2
As may be seen in the table, the difference in method of
specifying growthrates in aggregates for the short-run operating period
changes these growth rates, narrows the ranges, and reduces the
difference in growth rates between alternatives.
This reflects the
IV-2
combined effect of the reduction in the annualization factor from
1/
the reduced weight of revisions in the terminal month
6 to 4,
(which in the proposed procedure gets only 1/3 of its present weight),
and the partly offsetting effect from including revisionsin the month
preceding the terminal month (i.e., the month of the FOMC meeting)
in the end-period.
The above factors, including a review of historical relation-
ships between revisions of monetary aggregates in the month of the FOMC
meeting and the succeeding month,
suggest
that projected growth rates
of both M-1 and M-2, calculated on a three-month average over a three
month average,would have been revised over the intermeeting period
by about 37 per cent of the revisions that occurred in the projected
growth rates over the present two-month policy period.
Thus, experience
suggests that the tolerance ranges under the proposed procedure should
be about two-fifths as wide as at present in order to assure no change
in FOMC responses in adjusting the Federal funds rate to unanticipated
movements in the aggregates from one FOMC meeting to the next.
1/ The proposed procedure has an end-period that is centered threemonths from the center of the base period, while the present procedure has a one month end-period that is two months beyond the
base month.
2/ These revisions in the month prior to the terminal month have been
positively correlated with the terminal month revisions, and
thus are a factor tending to add to the variability of the projected growth rate under the proposed procedure.
Chart I
12/15/78
Money Market Conditions and Interest Rates
MARKET CONDITIONS
Per cent
11
INTEREST RATES Short-term
Per
--
cent
INTEREST RATES Long-term
cent
14
Weekly
Weekly Averages
verages
Per
14
-
-10
9
13
-
-
13
12
-
-
12
-
11
.RAL FUNDS RATE
-
8
-
-
11
FHA MORTGAGES
2
7Borrowed
111
1
-
-Monh
1 11 1
S5 -
8
-
FNMA Monday Auction
GOVT. BONDS
10-Yr. Averages
I1
-
-
8
-
7
Billions of dollars
Borrowed
-
2
7
S~3-Month
1977
1978
II
PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER
4-6 Month
MUNICIPAL BOND BUYER
Thursdays
2
Net Borrowed
I
6
-
+5
0
I I
I I
1979
I 1
I
1 11
I 1
1978
I
l
1979
4
1
1 1
1977
I
I
I I I I I~
1978
.
Il
1979
4
Chart
II
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
Class II-FOMC
Actual and Projected Reserves
12/15/78
Billions of dollars
44
43
42
TOTAL
41
-40
-39
-38
-37
36
S
Annual rate, per cent
MONTHLY GROWTH RATES
20
TOTAL
S1+
NONBORROWED
SII
JASO
I
N
1977
D
J
F
MA
M
J
J
1978
A
11
S O
20
N
D
J
F
MA
1979
M
J
Table 1
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II-FOMC
MONETARY AGGREGATES
DEC.
15,
1978
ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Money Supply
Broad
Narrow
(M2)
(Ml)
Period
MONTHLY
TotalOther
Total
4
Time & Savings Deposits
Than CD's
Other
Savin s
_Nondeposit
CD's
7
Surces of
Funds 2/
8
LEVELS-SBIL
501.6
505.4
509.9
(513.4)
223.9
221.9
(220.8)
9.1
10.6
13.5)
6.8
11.3
9.4)
1.3
4.5
-6.1)
1
7.9
8.9
7.9)
10.1
9.5
12.9)
6.4
10.0
10.3)
1.6
1.3
S-0.5)
1
12.5
7.0
4.3
5.7)
13.8
7.9
23.7
8.5)
11.8
9.1
10.7
8.2)
9.7
-1.6
-10.7
-5.9)
13.6
17.7
28.1
18.7)
25.0
1.4
98.0
10.1)
16.2)
9.5)
-8.3)
23.7)
54.4)
360.9
362.0
360.6
(361.2)
1978--SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
DEC.
%
Total
U.S. Govt.
Deposits 1/
862.4
867.4
870.5
1874.6)
(
17.4
21.2
21.7
12.9)
589.7
593.6
605.3
(609.6)
2 77.4
2181.5
2188.1
(2' 92.6)
224.2
88.1
88.2
95.4
69.8
74.9
73.2
( 96.2)
ANNUAL GROWTH
QUARTERLY
8.8
10.4
S5.7)
11.5
9.2
0.3)
1978-2ND QTR.
3RD QTR.
4TH QTR.
11.4
(
17.0
21.9)
1
22.9
6.5
36.8)
QUARTERLY-AV
9.9
7.6
4.5)
1978-2ND QTR.
3RD QTR.
4TH QTR.
10.5
17.3
(19.1)
32.8
7.5
(27.5)
MONTHLY
14.1
3.7
-4.6
2.0)
1978-SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
DEC.
-1.3)
NOV.-DEC.
WEEKLY
LEVELS-SBIL
1978-NOV.
DEC.
NOTE:
1/
2/
S5.0)
1
8
15
22 P
29 P
6
P
361.2
362.3
361.4
359.3
358.7
868.2
870.9
870.9
870.1
869.2
19.6
22.1
20.4
23.1
23.5
598.9
602.6
604.9
607.0
606.9
507.1
508.6
509.5
510.7
510.5
222.9
222.9
222.4
221.5
221.1
284.2
285.7
287.1
289.2
289.5
91.8
94.0
95.4
96.3
96.4
360.7
872.1
17.0
607.5
511.5
220.9
290.6
96.1
79.8
73.4
68.2
72.2
76.3
P - PRELIMINARY
DAIA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.
INCLUDES TREASURY DEMAND DEPOSITS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND TREASURY NOTE BALANCES.
INCLUDES BORROWINGS FRUM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER
PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES
MENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY,
LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS.
LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES,
(EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS),
AGREE-
1-A
TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Table
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCEPT AS NOTED
erod
DEC.
Total
Business
(NSA)
ndividual
Nonproft
15,
1978
Time Deposits
Savings Deposits
Total
Time
and
Savings
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II-FOMC
Government
(NSA)
Total
Memo: Large
Large
Small
Negotiable CD's
Denomination Denomination
7
OUTSTANDING
(I BILLIONS)
205.8
206.3
206.5
206.1
206.0
207.7
209.2
208.7
207.2
561.7
565.?
571.6
574.5
579.4
583.0
589.7
593.6
605.3
221.0
221.6
222.0
221.7
220.9
222.4
224.2
223.9
221.9
55.3
17.7
16.9
2.3
1977--III
IV
13.1
17.0
3.9
2.9
4.7
3.3
1978--1
II
III
17.3
14.1
13.6
1.4
0.9
0.7
3.5
6.4
2.9
4.9
3.6
6.7
3.9
11.7
0.6
0.4
-0.3
-0.8
1.5
1.8
-0.3
-2.0
197d--NAR.
APR.
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG.
SEPI.
O)CT.
*UV.
CHANGES
(4
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.2
3.8
166.5
167.5
168.5
170.1
171.3
171.9
173.6
177.0
177.7
82.0
83.4
87.1
86.7
87.4
86.3
88.1
88.2
95.4
340.8
343.6
349.7
352.8
358.5
360.6
365.5
369.7
383.5
174.3
176.1
181.2
182.7
187.2
188.7
191.9
192.7
205.8
-1.6
17.7
23.9
0.4
0.3
-1.2
-0.6
9.2
14.1
5.9
12.7
3.3
1.3
0.7
7.1
1.2
0.9
1.3
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.3
-0.2
-0.7
16.0
13.2
12.8
14.5
10.4
9.3
1.5
2.8
3.6
8.8
6.5
1.6
0.5
0.2
-0.4
-0. 1
1.7
1.5
-0.5
-1.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.4
2.8
6.1
3.1
5.7
2.1
4.9
4.2
13.8
1.8
5.1
1.5
4.5
1.5
3.2
0.8
13.1
1.0
1.0
1.6
1.2
0.6
1.7
3.4
0.7
1.4
3.7
-0.4
0.7
-1.1
1.8
0.1
7.2
10.5
10.6
LO.t
10.?
10.8
10.6
10.8
11.0
11.0
10.9
9'LLIONS)
1977 YEAR
13.8
11.3
QUARTERLY AVERAGE:
MONTHLY
AVERAGE:
1978--APR.
MAY
JUNF
JULY
AUG.
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
A
NOTE:
COLUMNS (11, (2). AND 19) ON
AGGREGATES.
FIGURES IN COLUMNS (1),
DERIVED FROM DATA REPORTED BY SMALL
GOVERNMENIAL UNITS-COLUMNS 14) AND
WEDNESDAY BY LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
SHIPS.
A
I
A
I
A
A
THIS TABLE CORRESPOND TO COLUMNS (4), (6),
AND (8), RESPECTIVELY, ON TABLE I-MONETARY
WITH ESTIMATES FOR NONMEMBER BANKS
REFLECT DAILY DATA REPORTED BY MEMBER BANKS,
(2), AND (6)
MEMBER BANKS, BENCHMARKED TO NONMEMBER CALL REPORT FIGURES.
SAVINGS DEPOSITS OF BUSINESS AND
151-- AND LARGE DENOMINATION TINE DEPOSITS -- COLUMN (7)--REFLECT BREAKDOWNS REPORTED EACH
BLOWN UP TO REPRESENT DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS ON THE BASIS OF CALL REPORT RELATION-
NFIDENTIAL (F.R.)
CLASS -FOMC
TABLE 2
BANK RESERVES
ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
BANK RESERVES
Period
Total
Reserves
Nonborrowed
Reserves
DEC.
15,
1978
RESERVES
_REQUIRED
Monetary
Base
Total
Required
Private
Demand
Total Time
Deposits
Gov't. and
Interbank
2
MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS
1978--SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
DEC.
4
0 112
41,172
41,434
41,289
(41,335)
40,156
40,586
(40,674)
139,750
140,782
141,501
(142.441)
11.5
4.6
( 1.6)
(
3.7
5.0
5.6)
10.4
8.5
S 7.7)
(
1.1
6.2
5.6)
40,979
41,261
41,112
(41,252)
22,845
23,059
22,705
(22,604)
16,740
16,618
16,936
(17,2041
(
1,394
1,584
1,470
1,4451
PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH
QUARTERLY
1978--2ND QTR.
3RD OTR.
4TH QTR.
11.7
4.4
S2.7)
(
10.1
4.4
(11.1)
13.1
8.3
-4.2)
QUARTERLY-AV
1976--2ND QTR.
3kD QTR.
4TH QTR.
(
6.6
8.2
2.6)
8.1
9.0
(
7.2
8.2
S3.0)
t.5)
5.0
9.5
S 2.7)
(
11.5
6.6
6.4)
MONTHLY
1978-StPT.
OCT.
NOV.
DEC.
8.1
7.6
10.7
-4.2
12.8
1.3)
2.6)
12.6
8.9
6.1
8.01
-1.4)
7.7)
7.1)
40,005
40,606
15
22
29
41,310
41,304
41,049
41,361
41,397
6
41,576
NOV.-DEC.
1.3
7.4
b.3
-4.3
4.1)
11.2
-18.4
l -5.3)
-0.1)
1 -11.8)
9.2
-8.7
23.0
(19.0)
14.2
1
21.2)
WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS
1978-NOV.
1
8
DEC.
NOTE:
40,757
40,606
141,361
140,927
141,072
141,769
142,155
41,197
40,918
40,804
41,306
41,357
23*299
22,556
22,589
22,742
22*856
16,542
16,705
16,875
17,024
17,155
1,356
1,657
1,340
1,540
1,346
40,878
142,215
41,470
22,666
17,230
1,574
40,416
RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES
DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.
ASSOCIATED
WITH
CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO.
1/
TABLE 3
NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES($ million, not seasonally adjusted)
Treasury
Bills Net
Change 2/
ith
iyear
Treas ury Coupons
Net Puurchases 3/
5 - 10
1-5
Federal Agencies
Net Purchases 4/
Over 10
Total
-490
7,232
1,280
-468
863
4,361
1977--Qtr. III
Qtr. IV
886
186
1978--Qtr. I
Qtr. II
Qtr. III
-2,655
5,444
3,152
4,395
1978--Oct.
4
11
18
25
721
100
Nov.
1
8
15
22
29
-1,667
-2,052
1 - 5
1 vear
5 - 10
Over 10
167
129
196
1,070
642
553
1,582
1,415
1,747
6,202
5,187
4,660
681
628
96
166
128
108
1,021
1,001
247
334
235
2,175
2,246
1,697
135
115
1,057
631
176
1,059
864
3,082
1,613
891
1,433
S
87
163
139
108
-1,358
-46
-154
1,272
3,607
-2,892
4,273
-2,331
34
-
-
177
145
707
-643
46
-92
127
-81
104
--
24
-
301
-173
7,930
4,632
46
127
104
24
301
5,724
2,950
-173
231
1,043
----------555
-
-
3,358
-
-
625
----------1,154
-1,594
-1,265
-
807
1,037
S
-
-1,133
1,224
266
-2,536
1,701
1,102
-81
S
507
628
-
1,631
9,273
6,303
7,267
6,227
10,035
386
-
-92
--
-6,270
5,822
-6,962
6,923
-923
504
716
592
400
1,665
824
469
792
139
--
----
----
----
628
--
163
--
108
--
---1,037
--
---------
----
----
----
----
-1,672
-2,052
---
---
---
---
---
1,540
683
-923
6
13
20
27
LEVEL--Dec. 13
/in
f4 n
j-m
539
500
434
1,510
1,048
758
1,123
1,156
774
-170
-2,151
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
116
99
789
579
797
3,284
3,025
2,833
235
283
2,635
July
Aug.
Sept.
Within
(FR)
Net Change
Outright
Holdings
*l/
TnlInl
Total 5/
1 vear
I
1978--June
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
CLASS II - FOMC
DECEMBER 15, 1978
-1,809
-6,663
1,783
2,092
2,643
-10,500
6,851
45.4
10.3
31.6
14.7
10.7
67.3
1.9
3.7
1.5
.9
7.9
120.6
hllinns
114-s
Change from end-of-period to end-of-period.
Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions.
Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excludes redemptions,
maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System.
Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts.
In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from
the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues.
Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II - FOMC
DECEMBER 15, 1978
TABLE 4
SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS
(millions of dollars)
U.S. Govt.
Security
Dealer Positions
BsIssues
uBillp
Member Bank Reserve Positions
Underwriting
Syndicate Positions
Corporate
Bonds
n
Excss**Borrowing at FRB**
Reserves
Total
Seasonal
Basic Reserve Deficit**
8 New York
Bonds
38 Others
3
Oer
1977--High
Low
7,234
1,729
3,017
-1,445
295
0
513
-111
1,861
20
-9,151
-4,234
-13,975
1978--High
Low
5,625
278
2,043
-1,076
215
0
719
-227
1,716
172
-8,224
-2,370
-14,657
1977--Nov.
Dec.
3,617
4,257
610
804
36
195
251
193
863
570
-6,971
-7,403
-11,825
-11,350
1978--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
4,127
3,418
2,713
327
1,492
740
42
24
96
268
243
200
484
406
328
-6,047
-4,980
-6,778
-12,299
-12,603
-11,060
Apr.
May
June
3,183
1,203
2,847
-183
5
78
46
25
35
149
219
178
557
1,212
1,094
-6,196
-4,038
-4,514
-12,998
-11,653
-12,202
July
Aug.
Sept.
1,196
1,994
2,571
-626
423
125
51
34
49
197
168
193
1,317
1,139
1,060
-3,651
-4,793
-5,098
-10,204
-11,089
-11,357
1,495
*1,960
-309
*462
16
23
177
8
1 2p
1,277
-4,651
44 8
-3,
p
-11,551
4
11
18
25
1,676
1,393
1,507
1,255
-19
-369
-528
-290
35
5
24
0
123
367
-119
367
1,286
1,239
1,250
1,314
-5,173
-6,292
-4,918
-3,139
-10,398
-12,406
-13,059
-10,731
1
8
15
22
29
1,786
1,639
1,660
*1,462
*2,004
12
1,032
687
*275
*135
3
0
10
73
30
113
386
245
1,305
698
633
604p
791p
-3,843
-4,221
-4,763
-2,519
-2,370
-10,522
-12,872
-13,128
-14,657
-13,585
6
13
20
27
*1,909
*2,520
*-281
64
120p
Oct.
Nov.
1978--Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
*-83
55
p
40p
6
10 p
4
- p
70 3
6
p
98p
p
5 94
48 2
-2,
p
4
- ,081p
- 8,206
- 8,273
-13,452p
- 13 , 33 7p
-13,348p
NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by
repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate
positions consist of issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal
Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate
which are Friday figures.
*
**
Strictly confidential.
Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.
TABLE 5
SELECTED INTEREST RATES
(per cent)
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
CLASS II - FOMC
DECEMBER 15, 1978
Short-Term
Federal
unds
IF
Treasury Bills
Market
3-mo
1-yr
Auction
6-mo
CD's New
IssueNYC
90-Day
Comm.
Paper
90-119
---- Day L----Y-
Bank
Prime
Rate
U.S. Govt.-Constant
Maturity Yields
3-yr
7-yr
(8) (9)
(9)
(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
7.99
7.26
8.36
7.90
8.48
7.95
5.93
5.45
9.00
8.65
8.98
8.46
8.39
7.56
8.94
7.72
8.85
8.01
9.30
8.61
9.35
8.48
6.45
5.58
10.35
8.98
10.40
9.13
9.48
8.43
7.22
7.30
7.46
7.59
7.76
7.87
8.28
8.34
8.25
8.38
5.49
5.57
8.92
8.96
8.86
8.94
8.19
8.27
7.93
7.61
7.86
8.14
8.68
8.60
5.71
9.02
9.17
8.56
8.00
8.00
7.67
7.70
7.94
7.95
8.22
8.21
8.69
8.71
8.67
8.67
5.62
5.61
9.15
9.20
9.31
9.35
8.64
8.60
6.82
7.06
7.59
8.00
8.27
8.63
7.85
8.07
8.30
8.06
8.25
8.40
8.32
8.44
8.53
8.90
8.95
9.09
8.85
8.98
9.07
5.80
6.03
6.22
9.36
9.57
9.70
9.44
9.66
9.91
8.71
8.90
9.05
8.00
7.86
8.34
7.85
7.83
8.39
9.00
9.01
9.41
8.54
8.33
8.41
8.55
8.38
8.42
8.69
8.45
8.47
9.14
8.82
8.86
9.18
8.91
8.86
6.28
6.12
6.09
9.74
9.79
9.76
10.01
9.81
9.79
9.15
8.97r
9.04r
8.49
9.20
9.12
10.15
8.98
10.14
9.94
10.94
8.62
9.04
8.64
8.80
8.69
8.75
9.17
9.27
9.13
9.27
6.13
6.19
9.86
10.11
10.03
10.30
9.25r
9.39r
8.38
8.42
8.56
8.61
8.75
9.13
9.21
9.38
8.64
8.83
8.97
9.09
9.75
9.75
10.00
10.00
8.50
8.47
8.57
8.69
8.56
8.52
8.63
8.69
8.64
8.61
8.67
8.73
9.04
9.03
9.15
9.24
6.07
6.10
6.14
6.21
9.85
9.85
9.85
9.88
9.91
9.19r
9.19r
9.19r
9.19r
8.98
9.42
9.29
9.00
9.33
10.00
10.00
10.25
10.25
10.25
9.33
10.01
10.24
10.21
10.15
10.25
10.61
10.75
10.96
11.43
9.12
9.10
8.95
8.96
9.16
8.82
8.84
8.76
8.78
8.88
8.80
8.80
8.72
8.72
8.78
9.28
9.30
9.24
9.25
9.28
6.22
6.17
6.11
6.16
6.29
9.90
10.05
10.20
10.28
10.30
10.20
10.33
9.48r
9.39r
9.40r
9.35r
9.43r
9.31
9.35p
6,29
6.45
10.35
n.a.
-10.40
9.39r
9.43
(7)
6.70
4.50
6.66
4.63
7.75
6.25
7.39
5.83
7.70
6.59
9.42
6.42
10.38
6.65
10.27
6.68
11.50
7.75
9.18
7.40
6.52
6.52
6.43
6.38
6.56
6.65
6.54
6.61
7.75
7.75
6.44
6.80
6.68
6.82
6.75
6.45
6.29
6.86
6.82
6.74
6.64
6.77
6.73
6.76
6.75
June
6.89
7.36
7.60
6.29
6.41
6.73
6.96
7.28
7.53
6.70
7.02
7.20
6.84
7.20
7.66
July
Aug.
Sept.
7.81
8.04
8.45
7.01
7.08
7.85
7.79
7.73
8.01
7.47
7.36
7.95
Oct.
Nov.
8.96
9.76
7.99
8.64
8.45
9.20
8.85
8.71
8.78
9.24
8.03
8.17
7.91
7.67
8.19
8.27
8.37
8.48
(1)
(3)
(4)
(5)
6.65
4.47
6.27
4.41
6.62
4.67
6.51
4.56
1978--High
Low
9.87
6.58
8.98
6.16
9.32
6.55
1977--Nov.
Dec.
6.51
6.56
6.10
6.07
1978--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
6.70
6.78
6.79
Low
Apr.
May
1978--Oct.
4
11
18
25
Nov.
Dec,
8.35
8.85
8.38
8.36
8.98
1
8
15
22
29
6
13
()
(10)
Home Mortgages
rimary Secondar Market
ConPry
FNMA
GNMA
Sec.
11)
(6)
(2)
1977--High
20-yr
.ong-Term
Corp.-Aaa
Mun
p
Utility
Munil
N ew
Recently
Bod
Offered
yAuc.
( sue
(FR)
(8)
9.87
9.79
8.93
8.90
9.29
9.27
9.22
9.26
10.25
10.38
10.25
10.27
11.50
11.50
9,12
9.18 p
8,86
8.94p
8.79
8.85p
9.80
83
9. p
8.90
8.90
9.32
9.25
--
--
10.25
10.30
11.50
11.50
9.13
9
9.1 p
8.89
6
8.9 p
8.79
8 8
. 7p
9.28
9.30p
9.98
10.27
20
27
Daily--Dec.
7
14
NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 are statement week averages of daily data. Weekly data in column 4 are average rates set in the auctions of
For columns 8 through
6-month bills that will be issued on the Thursday following the end of the statement week. Data in column 5 are 1-day Wednesday quotes.
11, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 12 and 13 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 14 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80
per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 15 gives
FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 16 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA
GNMA yields are average net
auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages.
yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the
coupon rate 50 basis points below the current PHA/VA ceiling.
DEC. 15, 1978
Appendix Table 1-A
Money and Credit Aggregate Measures
Bank Reserves
Period
Total
NonTotaborrowed
1
Money Stock Measures
Bank
Monetary
Base
Total
Loans
and
Invest-
MI
M-2
M
ments
1
1975
1976
1977
2
3
4
M-3
C.
M-4
C-
M-5
I.
M-6
M
It
1
5
0
I
o
(PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH)
-0.6
0.7
5.3
2.6
0.8
3.1
5.6
6.7
3.3
3.9
8.0
11.3
4.6
5.8
7.9
6.8
12.6
9.3
8.4
10.9
9.8
11.1
12.8
11.7
6.6
7.1
10.1
9.7
10.3
11.8
10.5
9.9
11.6
9.8
10.0
11.6
2/
SEMI-ANNUALLY:
1ST HALF
2NO HALF
1977
1977
3.8
6.8
3.2
2.9
1.3
9.0
11.3
10.7
7.8
7.8
1.8
7.4
10.1
9.1
11.4
11.4
9.4
10.3
10.8
12.1
10.2
12.3
10.4
12.2
1ST HALF
1978
7.8
7.8
9.0
12.7
8.1
5.9
7.4
7.8
10.3
9.5
9.5
10.9
OTR.
1977
7.5
8.2
9.6
9.5
6.6
4.7
7.2
9.3
11.5
11.8
12.0
12.7
1ST jTR.
2ND QTR.
3RD QTR.
1978
1978
1978
6.3
11.5
4.6
8.9
3.7
5.0
8.0
10.4
8.5
10.4
17.0
8.7
5.2
11.5
9.2
4.3
7.7
7.5
6.5
8.8
10.4
7.0
8.4
11.8
9.6
10.0
10.0
8.9
9.2
11.5
d.9
9.1
10.8
10.5
10.2
10.8
QUARTERLY:
4rH
QUAKTERLY-AV:
4TH 3TR.
1977
6.3
J.8
9.0
9.9
7.5
0.8
8.1
LO.6
10.8
12.2
12.7
12.7
IST QTR.
2ND QTR.
3RD QTR.
1978
1978
1978
8.8
6.6
8.2.
14.4
1.1
62
9.7
8.1
9.0
10.1
14.9
10.8
6.2
9.9
7.6
4.9
6.9
5.3
6.9
7.9
8.9
1.7
7.8
10.1
10.3
10.1
8.8
9.8
9.1
9.9
9.9
8.9
9.0
11.3
10.2
9.4
6.2
6.7
20.7
16.1
8.3
10.5
9.2
6.3
1.1
8.2
0.4
5.4
6.0
6.1
8.1
7.9
11.8
9.9
11.5
10.1
12.1
9.7
12.8
11.0
14.8
10.6
-6.6
8.9
10.2
14.9
14.0
-8.2
8.1
7.6
-4.2
17.8
13.2
-4.3
2.0
-9.6
19.0
7.6
-3.2
10.7
1.3
12.8
13.4
6.9
3.4
7.7
12.0
11.1
8.5
4.2
12.6
8.9
6.1
14.4
8.5
7.9
19.9
16.6
13.7
11.0
5.1
9.7
9.8
6.5
11.3
0.4
3.9
19.6
7.2
7.5
4.8
8.5
14.1
3.7
-4.6
9.4
0.8
2.5
13.6
5.4
4.0
1.5
8.7
12.2
1.8
-7.1
9.5
4.7
5.1
11.2
7.1
7.8
8.0
10.4
12.5
7.0
4.3
9.2
5.6
6.2
9.5
7.2
8.4
9.4
11.7
14.0
10.0
6.8
11.8
8.5
8.3
11.9
11.2
6.6
8.Z
8.0
13.7
6.4
12.9
10,6
7.9
8.0
10.2
9.6
7.6
9.4
10.2
14.6
9.5
12.0
11.3
7.8
7.4
10.2
9.7
7.2
7.6
9.2
15.4
7.9
11.2
12.7
9.4
9.0
11.4
10.7
8.2
8.0
8.9
15.0
7.9
11.1
2
MONTHLY:
1977--NOV.
DEC.
1978--JAN.
FE8.
MAR.
APR.
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG.
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV. P
1/
2/
P -
BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS.
BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA.
PRELIMINARY
DEC.
Appendix Table 1-B
15,
1978
Money and Credit Aggregate Measures
Seasonally Adjusted, Billions of Dollars
Bank Reserves -1B
Period
Total
borrowed
borrowed
Monetary
Base
Base
1
2
3
Non-
k
Money Stock MeasureB
Money Stock Measures
Credit
Total
Loans
and
and
Investments
4
M-1
M-l+
M-2
M-3
M-4
M-5
M-6
M-7
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
ANNUALLY:
36,643
37,050
38,961
36,513
36,996
38,391
113,019
120,671
130,789
726.2
788.9
875.5
295.2
313.5
338.5
456.4
516.8
560.2
664.7
740.5
809.5
1092.5
1236.5
1376.1
746.1
803.2
883.5
1173.8
1299.2
1450.1
1307.4
1437.6
1604.3
1350.7
1485.4
1660.5
1977--MOV.
DEC.
38,744
38,961
37,882
38,391
129,650
130,789
870.9
875.5
336.2
338.5
557.7
560.2
805.4
809.5
1367.1
1376.1
876.3
883.5
1438.0
1450.1
1591.4
1604.3
1645.4
1660.5
1978--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
39,443
39,793
39,573
38,959
39,387
39,245
132,252
133,017
133,390
886.0
892.3
898.6
341.7
341.8
342.9
564.6
565.0
566.2
815.9
819.1
822.6
1386.6
1393.1
1400.3
892.2
898.5
904.7
1462.9
1472.5
1482.3
1619.4
1629.9
1639.9
1678.1
1691.3
1704.0
APR.
MAY
JUNE
39,868
40,208
40,706
39,311
38,936
39,612
134,251
135,596
136,854
913.5
926.1
936.7
348.5
350.6
352.8
572.6
575.2
577.1
830.3
835.2
840.6
1411.4
1419.9
1429.8
913.7
922.2
927.3
1494.9
1506.9
1516.5
1653.8
1667.1
1677.1
1720.2
1735.5
1747.4
JULY
AUG.
SEPT.
41,180
40,897
41,172
39,863
39,757
40,112
137,822
138,302
139,750
945.3
949.3
957.0
354.2
356.7
360.9
577.8
582.0
587.9
846.2
853.5
862.4
1441.0
1455.1
1472.1
933.6
939.8
950.5
1528.4
1541.4
1560.2
1687.7
1700.6
1722.4
1759.1
1772.2
1794.4
P
41,434
41,289
40,156
40,586
140,782
141,501
964.8
970.0
362.0
360.6
588.8
585.3
867.4
870.5
1484.4
1492.8
955.6
965.9
1572.5
1588.2
1733.8
1750.0
1806.2
1822.9
11
18
25
41,533
41,520
41,218
40,294
40,270
39,904
140,424
140,918
140,538
364.3
364.3
358.8
591.6
591.1
585.3
869.4
869.3
865.2
955.8
956.2
954.1
NOV.
1
8
15
22P
29P
41,310
41,304
41,049
41,361
41,397
40,005
40,606
40,416
40,757
40,606
141,361
140,927
141,072
141,769
142,155
361.2
362.3
361.4
359.3
358.7
586.9
58d.1
586.7
583.7
582.6
868.2
870.9
870.9
870.1
869.2
960.0
964.9
966.3
966.3
965.6
DEC.
6P
41,576
40,878
142,215
360.7
584.4
872.1
968.2
1975
1976
1977
MONTHLY:
OCT.
NOV.
WEEKLY:
1978-OCT.
WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT
MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES.
WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS.
M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS.
1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. DATA SHOWN IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
P PRELIMINARY
NOTES:
AVAILABLE
FO
DEC.
APPENDIX TABLE 2-A
15,
1978
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES
Period
5
6
7
8
(Per cent annual rates of growth)
2/
ANNUALLY:
1975
1976
1977
7.9
8.0
11.4
11.7
15.0
11.2
17.5
25.0
11.1
7.8
7.4
11.4
-6.4
-23.4
12.8
15.3
15.5
14.2
19.5
18.8
19.4
33.6
7. 1
12.6
-7.0
11.9
13.4
8.9
13.3
0.6
24.9
12.9
14.5
16.6
20.6
2.6
22.3
15.9
10.1
2,
SEMi-ANNUALLY:
1ST HALF 1977
2Nj HALF 1977
8.7
9.8
7.4
7.1
10.4
11.8
11.9
10.0
15.3
6.4
1ST HALF
9.6
7.7
11.7
6.9
2.1
11.1
43.5
7.6
17.4
12.0
51.9
1977
10.7
5.4
14.5
7.7
1.5
13.5
64.0
11.6
18.8
23.5
32.2
1ST QTR. 1978
2NO QTR. 1978
3RD QTR. 1978
QUARTERLY-AV:
9.5
9.3
10.3
3.8
12.0
8.9
12.3
9.1
10.6
7.4
6.8
11.3
2.6
1.3
4.5
11.5
11.4
17.0
43.2
22.9
6.5
6.9
7.3
13.8
17.9
14.7
15.0
11.3
9.5
3.4
55.4
39.3
9.1
4TH QTR.
1977
10.3
6.4
13.0
8.5
5.4
11.6
44.9
13.9
20.0
29.7
12.9
1ST QTR. 1978
2ND QTR. 1978
3RD QTR.
1978
10.5
8.4
9.6
5.0
10.3
7.0
12.8
10.1
9.5
7.3
6.4
10.0
2.6
1.6
1.3
11.4
10.5
17.3
50.0
32.8
7.5
8.1
6.8
11.4
18.2
15.8
13.6
16.2
7.5
-3.0
52.3
45.6
19.3
1977--NOV.
DEC.
8.3
12.3
-1.0
6.8
18.5
10.9
9.5
4.6
-1.1
1.1
18.0
8.7
81.3
52.5
11.0
9.5
15.8
18.2
25.4
7.8
31.9
51.1
1978--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
APR.
MAY
JUNF
JULY
AUG.
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV. P
10.8
9.4
8.0
6.6
11.8
9.1
6.5
9.0
15.3
10.1
10.0
11.0
-2.4
2.9
23.8
5.6
6.5
4.6
8.7
13.2
1.8
12.3
13.3
10.8
7.5
13.6
6.1
10.2
7.5
13.8
7.9
23.7
8.4
7.6
6.0
5.3
6.7
8.2
10.3
11.5
11.8
9.1
10.7
6.0
1.1
0.5
3.3
2.2
-1.6
-4.3
8.1
9.7
-1.6
-10.7
10.0
13.2
10.8
6.5
11.5
16.0
22.5
14.2
13.6
17.7
28.1
37.3
48.8
39.3
20.5
53.2
-5.5
9.7
-15.1
25.0
1.4
98.0
7.8
6.2
6.6
6.6
6.8
8.5
11.1
14.4
15.5
14.9
10.9
17.9
15.2
20.0
14.7
12.1
16.8
11.8
11.7
20.9
6.8
4.5
29.4
9.1
-4.5
13.5
13.4
1.5
-23.5
-7.5
42.2
-17.5
4.4
51.2
55.2
52.8
43.1
34.3
36.9
17.0
3.4
6.7
6.7
8.3
1978
QUARTERLY:
4TH OTR.
MONTHLY:
=-
1/
aII
-10.4
I
II--- a
_~
-
.
a
GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS
PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.
2/ BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA.
P - PRELIMINARY.
-
a
I
*-
.
DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF
APPENDIX TABLE 2-B
DEC. 15,
1978
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES
Time and Savings Deposits
Currency Demand
Deposits
Period
Mutual
Bank
& S&L
Savings
Other Than CD's
Total
Credit
Union Savings
Shares Bonds
1_
Sharesi
ShortTerm
U*g
Govt
Sec
Other
Private
11
Non-
Total
12
13
14
34.4
51.0
62.0
9.5
12.6
13.0
Shortterm
Assets
Total
Savings
Other
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
160.5
201.9
219.6
209.1
225.1
251.5
81.3
394.9
456.9
519.8
33.0
39.1
46.8
67.2
71.9
76.6
66.3
74.0
77.6
43.3
47.8
56.3
Gov't
Deposit
Funds Demand
Deposts
1
2
3
73.7
80.7
88.6
221.5
232.8
249.9
450.9
489.7
545.0
MONTHLY:
1977--NOV.
DEC.
87.7
88.6
248.5
249.9
540.1
545.0
469.2
471.0
219.4
219.6
249.7
251.5
70.9
74.0
515.7
519.8
46.1
46.8
76.2
76.6
77.1
77.6
54.0
56.3
60.1
62.0
8.0
13.0
1978--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
89.4
90.1
90.7
252.2
251.7
252.3
550.6
556.7
561.7
474.3
477.3
479.7
220.7
220.9
221.0
253.6
256.4
258.7
76.3
79.4
32.0
523.2
525.9
528.8
47.5
77.0
77.4
77.8
79.5
48.9
80.1
79.8
50.7
61.4
64.1
64.9
65.5
65.4
10.8
8.5
9.1
APR.
MAY
JUNE
91.2
92.1
92.8
257.3
258.5
259.9
565.2
571.6
574.5
481.8
221.6
484.5
487.8
222.0
221.7
260.
262.6
266.1
83.4
87.1
86.7
531.7
534.7
538.5
49.5
50.0
50.7
78.2
78.6
78.9
80.7
81.6
81.7
66.4
68.3
70.4
65.7
66.2
66.4
9.6
8.2
12.9
JULY
AUG.
SEPT.
93.3
94.0
95.2
260.9
262.8
265.7
579.4
583.0
589.7
492.0
496.7
271.1
274.3
277.4
87.4
86.3
88.1
543.5
550.0
557.1
51.2
51.7
52.6
79.3
79.5
79.8
80.1
501.6
220.9
222.4
224.2
82.4
71.4
71.6
72.0
66.7
68.8
69.8
15.5
16.1
17.4
OCT.
NOV.P
96.0
96.8
266.1
263.8
593.6
505.4
509.9
223.9
221.9
281.5
288.1
88.2
95.4
564.0
569.1
52.9
53.1
80.1
80.3
81.2
81.5
72.4
72.9
74.9
73.2
21.2
21.7
11
18
25
95.7
96.0
95.8
268.5
268.3
263.0
591.5
592.0
595.3
505.1
505.0
224.5
224.0
223.7
280.7
281.0
282.6
86.4
87.0
89.0
71.6
74.3
76.6
21.4
24.1
22.0
1
8
15
22P
29P
96.5
96.4
96.6
96.9
97.0
264.6
265.9
264.8
262.4
261.7
598.9
602.6
604.9
607.0
606.9
507.1
509.5
510.7
510.5
222.9
222.9
222.4
221.5
221.1
284.2
285.7
287.1
289.2
289.5
91.8
94.0
95.4
96.3
96.4
79.8
73.4
68.2
72.2
76.3
19.6
22.1
20.4
23.1
23.5
6P
97.2
263.5
607.5
511.5
220.9
290.6
96.1
ANNUALLY:
1975
1976
1977
605.3
369.6
427.0
471.0
62.7
48.1
66.5
79.6
WEEKLY:
1978-0CT.
NOV.
DEC.
I /
2/
3/
4/
P -
506.3
508.6
ESTIMAE
MUNHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DE RIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT MONTH AND END OF PREVIDUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.
INCLUDES PRIVATE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS' HOLDINGS OF COMMERCIAL PAPER, BANKERS ACCEPTANCES, SFCUR17Y RP6S AND
MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUND SHARES.
BORROWINGS BY BANKS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER
AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHFR LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY,
PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES
(EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, ANO OTHER MINOR ITEMS.
INCLUDES TREASURY DEMAND DEPOSITS AT COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND TREASURY NOTE BALANCES.
PRELIMINARY
17.0
@FedFRASER