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CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS III - FOMC

December 9,

SUPPLEMENT
CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

Prepared for the
Federal Open Market Committee

By the Staff
Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System

1988

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page
THE DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY
Wholesale inventories . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

.

1

Table
Wholesale trade inventories: change in book value . . . . .
Wholesale trade inventory-to-sales ratio . . . . . . . . .

2
2

THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY
Tables
Monetary aggregates
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Commercial bank credit and short- and
intermediate- term business credit . . . . . . . . . . . .
Selected financial market quotations . . . . . . . . . . . .

3
4
5

SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES

DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL ECONOMY
Wholesale inventories
Wholesale inventories rose at an annual rate of $6 billion in
October--quite moderate compared with the $21 billion accumulation in
the third quarter.

Inventories of motor vehicles posted another fairly

sizable increase, and stocks of apparel and piece goods also rose
significantly.

Elsewhere, wholesale inventory changes were generally

small.
Wholesale sales rose 1.9 percent in October, with strong gains in
both durable and nondurable categories.

As a result, the wholesalers'

inventory-sales ratio fell from 1.29 to 1.27--the lowest level this
year.

WHOLESALE TRADE INVENTORIES: CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE
(Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted; annual rate)
1988

1988

1987

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

July

Aug.

Sept.r

Oct. p

21.9

26.5

13.1

21.1

27.7

22.3

13.4
2.5

6.1

15.0

22.8

-4.1

18.5

24.3

11.8

19.3

4.3

6.9

3.7

17.2

2.6

3.3

10.5

-6.0

1.7

Excluding farm

7.1

1.0

6.2

3.0

3.2

7.4

-1.6

4.2

Farm

-.1

2.7

11.0

-.4

3.1

-4.4

-2.4

Total
(Previous)
Durable
Nondurable

.1

Note: Totals may not add because of rounding.

WHOLESALE TRADE INVENTORY-TO-SALES RATIO

1987

1988

1988

r

Q4

Total
Durable

Nondurable
r--Revised.

p--Preliminary.

Q1

Q2

Q3

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

1.28

1.31

1.30

1.30

1.28

1.29

1.29

1.78

1.70

1.74

1.71

1.72

1.73

1.71

.86

.86

.92

.88

.88

.88

.88

r3

1.27

1.72

n

.86

MONETARY AGGREGATES
(based on seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise noted)

19871

1988
Q2

1988
Q3

1988
Sep

------------ Percent change at annual
1.

Ml

2.

M2

3.

M3

6.3
7.7
7.7

5.2
3.6
5.7

1988
Oct

Growth
1988
Q4 87Nov pe Nov 88pe

rates--------------------0
6
6

-0.3
1.0
1.7

------------ Percent change at annual rates----------

4
5s
6

-

Levels
bil. $
Oct 88

Selected components
4.
5.
6.

MI-A

2.8

Currency
Demand deposits

7.

Other checkable deposits

8.

M2 minus M12

9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

16.

Overnight RPs and Eurodollars, NSA
General purpose and broker/dealer money
market mutual fund shares, NSA
Commercial banks
Savings deposits, SA, plus MMDAs, NSA3
Small time deposits
Thrift institutions
Savings deposits, SA, plus MMDAs, NSA 3

3.9

-0.7

3.1

-2

505.5

7.1
0.7

8.7
-1.0

3.4

7.5
-7.0

5.8
0.8

5
-7

209.5
288.6

5

277.9

8

2253.7

-38

75.7

13.6

10.6

3.3

8.2

3.1

1.4

4.1

3.0

-4.0

-37.5

-29.4

3.3
6.8
3.2
11.8
9.1
2.3
14.0

-3.1
5.1
1.2
10.2
2.7
0.4
4.5

0.0
4.0
-7.9
20.0
1.6
-10.7
10.1

2.1
8.1
-4.0
23.4
-0.1
-12.6
9.0

Small time deposits

0.9

-1.3
1.0

231.2
971.5
542.2
429.2
976.4
395.8
580.7

17. M3 minus M2 4

11.2

7.4

13.7

4.1

17.4

18.
19.
20.
21.

8.5
11.2
3.4

7.6
6.7
9.3

15.8
21.5
4.5

20.0
18.0
24.3

14.4
14.6
14.0

530.0
356.7
173.3

3.0
32.9
13.8

-30.6
28.3
19.8

-23.3
12.0
38.1

-4.3
-15.6
-10.6

12.9
26.7
-24.9

84.6
124.2
99.3

22.
23.

Large time deposits
At commercial banks, net s
At thrift institutions
Institution-only money market
mutual fund shares, NSA
Term RPs, NSA
Term Eurodollars, NSA

MEMORANDA:

6

24. Managed liabilities at commercial
banks (25+26)

25.

Large time deposits, gross

Nondeposit funds
Net due to related foreign
institutions, NSA
7
Other
28.
29. U.S. government deposits at commercial
8
banks
26.
27.

6

831.4

----- Average monthly change in billions of dollars----

6.2
3.5
2.7
2.9
-0.2
0.3

1.8
6.4
-4.6
3.9
2.4

-8.3
6.1
-14.4

0.8
4.0
-3.2

0.1
-4.7

-9.5
-4.9

-4.3
1.1

5
-1

4.8
173.0

6.2

-9

30.7

0.8

8.7

601.5
423.7
177.8

1. Amounts shown are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter.
2. Nontransactions M2 is seasonally adjusted as a whole.
3. Commercial bank savings deposits excluding
IMDAs grew during October and November at rates of -2.5
percent and 19 percent, respectively. At thrift institutions, savings deposits excluding MMDAs grew
during October and November at rates of -8.9 percent and -1 percent, respectively.
4. The non-H2 component of M3 is seasonally adjusted as a whole.
5. Net of large denomination time deposits held by money market mutual funds and thrift
institutions.
6. Dollar amounts shown under memoranda are calculated on an end-month-of-quarter basis.
7. Consists of borrowing from other than commercial banks in the form of federal funds purchased, securities
sold under agreements to repurchase, and other liabilities
for borrowed money
including borrowing from the
Federal Reserve and unaffiliated
foreign banks, loan RPs and other minor items). Data are partially
estima-t
8. Consists of Treasury demand deposits and note balances at commercial banks.
pe - preliminary estimate

COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT AND SHORT- AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT
(Percentage changes at annual rates, based on seasonally adjusted data)

Levels

1986:Q4
to

1988
P

1987: Q4

Q2

Q3

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

bil.$
p
Nov.

----------------------- Commercial Bank Credit ----------------------1.

2.

Total loans and securities
at banks

7.9

5.
6.
7.

Security loans

8.

Real estate loans

9.

Consumer loans

10.

-.2

-.4

8.3

1.7

551.3

9.6

12.1

2.3

6.8

8.9

4.1

356.3

1.6

-4.7

-13.4

7.4

-2.5

195.0

12.6

5.6

-.8

6.8

7.0

1846.3

15.2

3.2

-4.4

7.6

-2.4

599.2

-18.4

-30.5

-113.7

69.4

-28.1

37.5

13.3

12.6

11.5

13.4

12.5

658.8

9.9

5.5

7.3

2.4

7.9

351.1

-3.1

Business loans

8.3

5.1

Total loans

2397.6

18.8

Other securities

5.8

7.0

4.

7.1

8.9

U.S. government securities

-.7

-1.9

3.

4.3

5.0

Securities

11.6

13.8

-1.6

-18.4

-21.6

22.7

199.7

.8

Other loans

--------- Short- and Intermediate-Term Business Credit--------1.

Business loans net of bankers
acceptances
Loans at foreign branches

13.

Sum of lines 11 & 12

14.

Commercial paper issued by
nonfinancial firms

15.

Sum of lines 13 & 14

16.

Bankers acceptances:

-4.0

-4.1

4.1

24.1

15.1

3.8

-1.6

12.2

-4.8

-1.3

39.9

14.7

2.6

-1.7

13.1

-7.3

-3.7

-18.6

n.a.

31. 75

11.6

n.a.

744.25

8.3

-2.2

596.0

66.0

34.1

-16.6

21.4

-1.8

9.0

-2.7

617.4

24.4
.8

95.2

712.6

U.S. trade

related '

17.

3.1

5.7

12.

15.5

6.8

2

7.2

13.3

-9.5

Line 15 plus bankers acceptances:
U.S. trade related

6.0

13.5

2.2

-1.8

18.

Finance company loans to business

19.3

12.1

10.9

18.2

n.a.

n.a.

227.2 6

19.

Total short- and intermediateterm business credit (sum of
lines 17 & 18)

8.8

13.2

4.2

2.9

n.a.

n.a.

964.4 6

1. Average of Wednesdays.
2. Loans at foreign branches are loans made to U.S firms by foreign branches of domestically chartered banks.
3. Based on average of data for current and preceding ends of month.
4. Consists of acceptances that finance U.S. imports, U.S. exports, and domestic shipment and storage of goods.
5. October data.
6. September data.
n.a.--not available.
p--preliminary

SELECTED FINANCIAL MARKET QUOTATIONS 1
(Percent)
1987
Jan.-Feb.
lows
Oct. 16

Feb
lows

1988
FOMC
Nov.1

Dec. 8

Change from:
FOMC
Nov. 1

Short-term rates
Federal funds 3
Treasury bills
3-month
6-month
1-year

5.95

7.59

6.38

8.31

8.58

5.30
5.31
5.35

6:93
7.58
7.74

5.59
5.77
6.10

7.34
7.47
7.49

7.98

Commercial paper
1-month
3-month

5.81
5.73

7.94
8.65

6.41
6.45

8.19
8.29

9.24
9.08

1.05
.79

Large negotiable CDs
1-month
3-month
6-month

5.85
5.80
5.78

7.92
8.90
9.12

6.44
6.49
6.55

8.19
8.40
8.41

9.32
9.20
9.19

1.13
.80
.78

Eurodollar deposits 5
1-month
3-month

6.00
6.00

7.79
8.69

6.60
6.69

8.25
8.56

8.45
9.20

1.20
.64

Bank prime rate

7.50

9.25

8.50

10.00

10.50

.50

9.52
10.23
10.24

7.28
8.11
8.32

8.33
8.68
8.76

9.03
9.02
8.97

7.76

7.70

7.96

8.20

8.24

Intermediate- and long-term rates
U.S. Treasury (constant maturity)
3-year
6.34
10-year
7.01
30-year
7.29
Municipal revenue
(Bond Buyer)

6.92

Corporate A utility
(recently offered)

8.78

11.50

9.63

9.96

10.03

7
Home mortgage rates
S&L fixed-rate
S&L ARM, 1-yr.

9.10
7.52

11.58
8.45

9.84
7.59

10.22
8.13

10.44
8.26

1986

Year-end

9.58e

1988

1987
Record
highs

Lows

FOMC
Nov. 1

Dec. 8

Percent change from:
FOMC
Nov.1

Stock prices
Dow-Jones Industrial 1895.95
2722.42 1738.74 2150.96
2141.71
-.43
NYSE Composite
138.58
187.99
125.91
156.98
155.37
-1.03
IMEX Composite
263.27
365.01
231.90
299.56
297.38
-.73
NASDAQ (OTC)
348.83
455.26
291.88
382.35
375.22
-1.86
1. One-day quotes except as noted.
4. Secondary market.
Las- business day prior to stock market
5. Average for statement week closest
'ecline on Monday, October 19, 1987.
to date shown.
3. Average for two-week maintenance period
6. Based on one-day Thursday quotes
closest to date shown except lows shown which
and futures-market index changes.
e nne-week average ending Feb.25 and Feb.10,
7. Quotes for week ending Friday closest
respectively. Last observation is average
to date shown.
-o date for maintenance period ending 12/14/88.
e--estimate