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Strictly Confidential (FR) Class II FOMC

December 7, 1988

SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK
This edition is dedicated to Eleanor Stockwell,
who presently will retire from the Board after 52 years of distinguished service
that has included many hours writing and editing portions of the Greenbook.

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

Recent Developments
Incoming information since the November FOMC.meeting has failed to
confirm earlier hints of a moderation in the pace of economic expansion.
Real GNP appears likely to post another sizable increase in the current
quarter (abstracting from output losses directly related to the
drought).

At the same time, while the recent data suggest a fairly

stable inflation rate, owing in part to the favorable effects of earlier
oil price declines, labor cost measures continue to show some
acceleration from a year earlier.
Employment growth has been strong of late.

Nonfarm payrolls surged

more than 460,000 in November, after rising 240,000 a month earlier.
Taken together, the October and November data point to an increase of
more than 3-1/2 percent (annual rate) in hours worked in the current
quarter.

Moreover, employment also rose sharply in the November

household survey, and the civilian unemployment rate has been between
5.3 and 5.4 percent in the past two months, compared with 5.5 percent
during the summer.
The labor market and other data suggest that industrial activity
has continued to expand briskly.

Manufacturing employment posted

another sizable increase of 70,000 in November, after rising 100,000 the
month before.

The November survey of purchasing managers also suggested

strength in production.

It appears that the increase in industrial

production last month matched or exceeded the October gain of
0.4 percent; manufacturing capacity utilization probably is now in the
vicinity of 84-1/2 percent.
Spending indicators for the current quarter, which, in most cases,
are available only through October, are somewhat less robust, on
balance, than the recent employment and production data.

Real consumer

outlays rose 0.3 percent in October, after declining 0.4 percent in
September.

Household expenditures for electricity and natural gas

bounced back in October, but spending for nondurables was sluggish and
for durables was down for a second consecutive month, owing mainly to a
drop in auto sales.

In November, domestic auto sales recovered somewhat

to a 7-1/4 million unit rate, after falling to 6-3/4 million units in
October.
Total housing starts strengthened to a 1.55 million unit annual
rate in October as single-family starts moved noticeably above the range
of the preceding six months.

In addition, new home sales rose further

in October, and sales of existing houses were off only a bit from their
strong third-quarter pace.

The single-family market may have been

boosted by the dip in mortgage rates between August and November.

But

mortgage rates now have turned up again, and builders are less
optimistic about market conditions than earlier in the year.
Outlays for business equipment apparently have slowed substantially
in recent months.

Shipments of nondefense capital goods, excluding

aircraft, declined about 1-1/2 percent between August and October to a
level slightly below the third-quarter average.

And, new orders for

these goods have fallen somewhat more sharply over the period.

A

slackening in bookings for computers and communications items accounts
for much of the recent weakness.
machinery are still expanding.

However, backlogs for industrial
For nonresidential construction, recent

data on spending indicate a leveling off in October, after two quarters
of 3 percent plus growth.

Looking ahead, private surveys of planned

capital spending indicate that firms expect to increase nominal outlays
5 to 6 percent in 1989.

With reasonable allowance for price increases,

these reports imply only moderate growth in investment spending next
year, and seem to reflect, in part, caution among businesses in light of
uncertainties about the sustainability of strong growth and the lower
value of the dollar.
Manufacturing and trade inventories, in constant dollars, rose a
little more in the third quarter than in the second.

The pickup was

entirely in the nonauto sector; nonetheless, this rise in stocks was
about matched by the growth in sales, suggesting no developing inventory
overhang.

Auto dealers, however, have experienced a discomforting rise

in stocks in recent months, as domestic car sales have slipped.

There

is a growing expectation that the current relatively limited incentive
programs will be enhanced soon and that automakers' optimistic assembly
schedules for the next several months will be adjusted down.
Compared with 1987, inflation at the consumer level remains
little changed this year, with greater food price inflation about
offset, on balance, by a deceleration in energy prices.

In October, the

consumer price index rose 0.4 percent, as another jump in apparel prices

I-4

offset a slowing in food prices.

Food prices also edged down at the

finished goods level in the October PPI, and crude food prices appear
likely to turn down in the PPI report for November.

For energy, retail

prices of petroleum products declined in October, reflecting the earlier
drop in crude oil prices.
At earlier stages of processing, the PPI for intermediate materials
less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in October after a 0.6 percent
increase in September.

Spot prices of industrial commodities, however,

have been little changed, on balance, over the past several months, with
copper prices reaching a new high, while prices of steel scrap and some
other items have declined.
With consumer price inflation remaining around 4-1/2 percent and
labor markets tightening, twelve-month changes in wages and hourly
compensation continue to run from 1/2 to more than a full percentage
point higher than those recorded in the prior year.
shown the least acceleration.

Wages, per se, have

For example, the volatile hourly earnings

index for wages of production and nonsupervisory workers jumped
0.7 percent in October and was unchanged in November, at a level
3-1/4 percent above a year earlier; a year ago, the twelve-month change
in this index was 2-3/4 percent.

Hourly compensation in the nonfarm

business sector in the third quarter was 5 percent higher than a year
ago, compared with a 3-3/4 percent rise over the four quarters ending in
1987-Q3.

With nonfarm productivity growth this past year having slowed,

much of the pickup in wage and benefit costs has been translated into
faster rising labor costs.

I-5
Outlook
Growth of real GNP, excluding drought losses, is expected to be
3-1/2 percent at an annual rate in the current quarter, well above the
estimated 2-1/2 percent rate of increase in potential output; as a
result, levels of resource utilization have risen further.

The staff

continues to believe that an easing of pressures on labor and capital
resources will be needed to restore a downward trend in inflation.
Given that other forces appear unlikely to damp aggregate demand
sufficiently, our projection is based on an assumption that the System
will foster a further gradual tightening of financial conditions into
1990.

Largely as a result of these policy actions, output decelerates

noticeably over the next year or so, creating slack sufficient to begin
an improvement in the inflation trend sometime in 1990.
Growth of M2, which likely will end this year somewhat below the
midpoint of its annual target range, is expected to slow in 1989,
placing it in the lower half of its tentative range, and to remain
damped in 1990.

Growth of M3 is projected to exceed that of M2 next

year, expanding around the middle of its tentative range, and to
continue at about that rate in 1990.
Although rising real U.S. interest rates should work to buoy the
foreign exchange value of the dollar, the still large current account
deficit likely will continue to exert downward pressure on the dollar.
On balance, the staff is assuming that the dollar falls moderately
during 1989 and 1990.

The fiscal policy assumptions underlying the staff forecast imply
an FY1989 deficit of $156 billion and an FY1990 deficit of $126 billion.
For FY1990, the staff has incorporated into its estimate $27 billion of
deficit-reducing actions--about in line with what the Congress has been
able to achieve, on average, in the past few years.

The forecast

deficit for FY1990 is significantly above the $100 billion Gramm-RudmanHollings target.

However, we have assumed that a sequester will be

avoided because the official budget projections to be made next August
can be based on more optimistic economic assumptions than those of the
staff.
Growth of real GNP (abstracting from the estimated rebound in farm
output) is expected to slow only a bit between the fourth quarter of
this year and the first quarter of 1989, when it is projected to be
3 percent.

The recent firming in mortgage rates is reflected in a

decline in housing starts.

However, continued strong exports and some

bounceback in business equipment outlays, after their lull in the fourth
quarter, are expected to provide considerable impetus to domestic
production.

A pickup in consumption is forecast as well, but this

largely reflects our assumption of more attractive incentive programs
for autos; auto production actually is expected to decline, contributing
to the slowing in business inventory accumulation. 1

1. Despite more rapid growth of consumer spending, the personal saving
rate increases in 1989-Q1 largely owing to a bulge in farm subsidy
payments.

REAL GNP AND THE DROUGHT
(Percent change, annual rate)
1988
Q1

Q2

Q3

--actual-Real GNP
3.4
Real GNP excluding
3.4
effects of the drought

3.0
3.9

2.6
3.2

Q4

Ql

1990
H2

H1

H2

projection--------

---------2.2
3.5

1989
Q2

5.8
3.0

2.7
2.5

2.2
2.1

0.9
0.9

1.4
1.4

Inventory investment in the first quarter also is damped by a
rundown of inventories of imported oil, after a surge in the fourth
quarter.

Although the staff has fully accounted for these large changes

in oil imports in its projection of nonfarm inventories, BEA has
significant problems in measuring these swings.

Thus, the distinct

possibility exists that reported GNP growth could turn out lower in the
fourth quarter and higher in the first quarter than shown in the
projection.
As 1989 progresses, rising interest rates are projected to continue
to push homebuilding lower.

Higher interest rates also take a toll on

equity prices and other asset values, depressing the growth of consumer
spending and business capital outlays.

The staff projection for

business fixed investment in 1989 as a whole is close to the recent
survey results noted above.

Increases in real net exports are sizable,

although they are damped somewhat relative to the average pace in 1988
by the lagged effects of the dollar apprecition that occurred earlier
this year.

As a result, growth of real GNP is projected to move down to

I-8

around 2 percent during the second half of the year, and the civilian
unemployment rate is forecast to begin to turn up.
In 1990, consumer and investment spending are projected to
decelerate further, and residential construction is expected to continue
edging down.

In addition, businesses are anticipated to be relatively

prompt in adjusting their inventories as sales weaken.

As a result,

real gross domestic purchases are projected to rise only marginally over
the year.

Export growth also is anticipated to decelerate, but still

provides most of the support for domestic production.

The staff has not

attempted to forecast potential shocks to economic activity over the
projection period that could alter the relatively smooth pattern of
deceleration that is shown in the forecast.

Thus, with GNP growth

expected to slow to around 1 percent in 1990, one or two quarters of
negative growth--particularly in domestic demand--certainly cannot be
ruled out.
The staff has raised slightly its projection of inflation for 1989,
in light of an expectation of somewhat firmer oil prices than assumed in
the last Greenbook.

We do not expect that OPEC will achieve fully its

output and price goals.

Nonetheless, crude oil prices now are assumed

to rise to $15 per barrel by the end of next year--about $2 per barrel
more than in the last projection; thus, rather than declining, domestic
energy costs are now anticipated to rise modestly.

Moreover, the

civilian unemployment rate is expected to average a shade lower over the
next several quarters and capacity utilization to be a bit higher than
in the previous forecast, generating slightly more pressure on wages and

prices.

The GNP fixed-weight price index is expected to increase

4-1/4 percent over the year, and the CPI is projected to rise more than
4-1/2 percent; excluding food and energy, the CPI is anticipated to be
up around 5 percent.
STAFF INFLATION PROJECTION
(Percent change, annual rate)
1990

1988
Q4

H1

1989
H2

H1

H2

GNP fixed-weight
price index

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.7

4.3

Consumer price index
Excl. food and energy

4.5
5.1

4.5
5.0

4.8
5.3

4.8
5.3

4.7
5.1

Compensation per hour

4.7

5.3

5.2

5.7

4.9

In early 1990, an increase in Social Security taxes provides
another boost to business costs; this adds about 1/4 percentage point to
the rise in hourly compensation for the year.

But, over the course of

the year, with slack developing in labor and product markets, upward
pressure on wages and prices is projected to begin to diminish.

As the

jobless rate moves closer to 6 percent, compensation per hour is
projected to begin to decelerate.

And, the GNP fixed-weight price index

and the CPI are projected to slow slightly.

If the levels of slack

prevailing at the end of 1990 were to be maintained into 1991, the staff
would expect further progress in lowering inflation.
Details of the staff projection are provided in the tables that
follow.

I-10

December 7, 1988
CONFIDENTIAL - FR

STAFF GNP PROJECTIONS

CLASS II FOMC

Percent changes, annual rate
.....................................................................................................

Real GNP

Nominal GNP

10/26/88

12/7/88

10126/88

12/7/88

GNP fixed-weLghted
price index

10/26/88

12/7188

GNP

deflator

10/26/88

12/7/88

Unemployment
rate
(percent)

10/26/88

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/7/88

Annual changes:
1987

<1>

6.!

1988
1989

6.2
5.5
5.5

7.:
7.:

6.2
5.5
5.4
5.9

1990
Quarterly changes:

1988

Ql <1>
Q2 <1>
Q3 <1>
Q4

5.
8.
6.
6.

1989

Ql
Q2
Q3

8.
6.
6.

Q4

5.

W§90

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Two-quarter changes: <2>
1988

Q2 <1>
Q4

7.0
6.6

7.0
7.1

3.2
1.9

3.2
2.4

4.2
4.8

4.2
4.8

3.6
4.7

3.6
4.7

-. 4
-. 1

-. 4
-. 2

1989

Q2
Q4

7.8
5.9

7.9
6.1

3.8
2.3

4.2
2.2

4.4
3,9

4.3
4.2

3.8
3.5

3.5
3.8

.1
.1

.0
.2

1990

Q2
Q4

4.0
4.5
4.2

4.0
4.5
4.3
4.5

3.1
4.1
3.7

3.1
4.1
3.6
4.3

-.9
-.5
.2

-.9
-.6
.2
.6

5.3
5.6

.9
1.3

Four-quarter changes: <3>
1987
1988
1989
1990

Q4 <1>
Q4
Q4
Q4

8.3
6.8
6.9

8.3
7.1
7.0
5.5

5.0
2.5
3.1

...........................................................................................................................

<1> Actual.
<2> Percent change from two quarters earlier.
<3> Percent change from four quarters earlier.

5.0
2.8
3.2
1.1

I-11
December 7, 1988

CONFIDENTIAL - FR
CLASS II FOMC

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Seasonally adjusted; annual rate)
Projection
.......................................................................

1988
Units

Q3

1989
Q4

Q1

Q2

1990
Q3

QA

Ql

Q2

Q3

Q4

EXPENDITURES
Nominal GNP
Real GNP

Billions of $
Billions of 82$

Nominal GNP
Real GNP
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic purchases

Percent change

4909.2
4010.9

4992.7
4033.0

5099.5
4089.8

5185.9
4117.4

5264.4
4141.8

5340.6
4162.8

5417.1
4172.4

5480.2
4181.0

5555.2
4194.5

5632.2
4208.7

7.3
2.6
2.3
2.8

7.0
2.2
2.3
2.4

8.8
5.8
5.8
4.0

7.0
2.7
2.7
2.5

6.2
2.4
2.4
1.7

5.9
2.0
2.0
1.1

5.9
.9
.9
.1

4.7
.8
.8
.0

5.6
1.3
1.3
.5

5.7
1.4
1.4
.6

Final sales
Private dom. final purchases

2.5
4.1

2.2
2.3

5.1
3.7

2.5
2.4

3.0
2.3

2.6
1.6

1.7
.6

1.4
.5

1.3
.3

1.5
.6

Personal consumption expend.
Durables
Nondurables
Services

4.0
-1.1
5.4
4.7

2.4
-1.6
1.8
4.1

3.5
7.3
2.3
3.2

2.4
1.0
2.0
3.2

2.4
.8
2.0
3.2

1.8
-.5
1.6
2.6

.8
-3.5
1.2
1.8

.6
-2.5
.5
1.6

.4
-3.8
.5
1.6

.7
-1.6
.5
1.6

4.8
5.5
3.2
3.2

.6
2.0
-3.4
5.4

5.4
7.6
-.7
1.5

4.2
6.0
-1.1
-3.1

3.5
5.0
-1.1
-2.4

2.7
4.0
-1.4
-2.9

1.7
3.0
-2.4
-3.6

1.1
3.0
-5.0
-2.2

.4
2.5
-6.3
-1.6

.1
2.5
-7.7
-.5

11.6
11.6

12.0
11.9

14.1
1.2

12.1
9.7

11.2
5.6

12.4
4.9

10.1
3.3

9.4
3.3

9.5
3.5

8.7
3.2

-3.0
-9.2
-11.7
1.7

3.0
4.2
-.5
2.1

2.1
2.0
-1.6
2.2

2.0
1.8
-.9
2.2

2.3
2.7
-.6
2.1

1.9
1.6
-2.2
2.2

1.3
.0
.6
2.2

1.1
-.4
-.3
2.2

1.1
-.3
-.2
2.1

1.2
.1
-.2
2.0

Billions of 82$
Billions of 82$
Billions of 82$

36.7
36.7
-95.2

37.0
51.3
-97.8

44.1
38.5
-82.1

46.7
41.7
-80.9

41.1
37.7
-74.6

35.3
35.4
-65.4

27.9
29.4
-56.3

21.7
23.8
-47.9

22.3
24.8
-39.5

21.2
24.1
-31.6

Nonfarm payroll employment
Unemployment rate

Millions
Percent*

106.5
5.5

107.4
5.3

107.9
5.3

108.4
5.3

108.8
5.4

109.2
5.5

109.4
5.7

109.5
5.9

109.8
6.0

110.0
6.1

Industrial production index
Capacity utilization rate-mfg.

Percent change
Percent*

7.2
84.0

4.6
84.5

3.5
84.5

3.0
84.5

2.6
84.3

1.9
84.0

.4
83.4

.5
82.8

1.5
82.4

1.7
82.1

Housing Starts
Auto sales
Domestic
Foreign

Millions
Millions
Millions
Millions

1.46
10.53
7.41
3.12

1.51
10.13
7.14
2.99

1.48
10.40
7.38
3.03

1.44
10.31
7.31
3.00

1.42
10.22
7.22
3.00

1.39
10.05
7.10
2.95

1.38
9.68
6.80
2.88

1.36
9.40
6.60
2.80

1.34
9.20
6.45
2.75

1.34
9.20
6.45
2.75

Business fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment
Nonresidential structures
Residential structures
Exports
Imports
Government purchases
Federal
Defense
State and local
ie in business inventories
Lfarm
exports
EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION

INCOME AND SAVING
Nominal personal income
Real disposable income
Personal saving rate

Percent change
Percent change
Percent*

7.1
5.6
4.1

8.1
2.7
4.2

9.8
5.5
4.6

6.4
.8
4.2

6.2
1.2
3.9

7.2
1.8
3.9

7.4
1.9
4.2

6.0
.7
4.2

6.2
.8
4.3

6.5
1.2
4.4

Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj
Profit share of GNP

Percent change
Percent*

-3.4
6.6

6.0
6.6

12.0
6.6

7.7
6.6

-1.3
6.5

-11.0
6.2

-19.4
5.8

-15.8
5.5

-8.0
5.3

-7.5
5.2

Federal govt. surplus/deficit
State and local govt. surplus
Exc. social insurance funds

Billions of $

-124.8
55.9
-13.3

-138.5
61.5
-9.0

-142.3
66.4
-5.4

-132.6
69.6
-3.4

-129.0
71.8
-2.4

-131.8
72.6
-2.7

-123.9
72.5
-3.9

-124.0
71.0
-6.5

-118.1
70.6
-8.0

-119.1
71.6
-8.1

4.6
4.3
4.3
4.5
5.1

2.9
4.3
3.8
4.1
4.7

4.1
4.3
4.6
4.8
5.2

3.7
4.2
4.5
4.7
5.3

3.8
4.2
4.6
4.9
5.4

4.9
4.9
4.5
4.8
5.3

3.9
4.4
4.5
4.8
5.2

4.2
4.3
4.5
4.7
5.1

4.2
4.3
4.4
4.7
5.1

.4
4.7
4.3

.8
5.4
4.6

.8
5.1
4.3

.8
5.2
4.4

.8
5.2

.5
6.3

.6
5.1

4.4

5.8

4.5

.8
5.0
4.2

1.0
4.9
3.9

PRICES AND COSTS
GNP implicit deflator
GNP fixed-weight price index
Cons. & fixed invest, prices
CPI
Exc. food and energy
arm business sector
ut per hour
ensation per hour
t labor costs
* Not at an annual rate.

Percent change

1.9
5.6
3.7

I-12
December 7,
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
CLASS II FOMC

1988

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Seasonally adjusted; annual rate)
Projection
1982
1982

1983
1983

1984
1984

1985
1985

1986
1986

1987
1987

1988
1988

1989
1989

1990
1990

3166.0
3166.0

3405.7
3279.1

3772.2
3501.4

4014.9
3618.7

4240.3
3721.7

4526.7
3847.0

4862.6
3996.3

5222.6
4127.9

5521.2
4189.2

-1.9
-1.6
-.8

6.5
6.6
8.4

5.1
5.3
6.4

3.6
3.8
4.3

2.0
2.3
2.4

5.0
5.1
4.4

2.8
3.0
2.0

3.2
3.2
2.4

1.1
1.1
.3

Final sales
Private dom. final purchases

.3
.8

3.7
7.7

4.7
5.6

4.6
4.6

2.5
2.8

3.0
2.4

3.6
3.8

3.3
2.5

1.5
.5

Personal consumption expend.
Durables
Nondurables

2.9
9.0
1.8
2.3

5.4
14.7
4.4
3.9

4.1
10.8
2.3
3.5

4.6
7.0
3.3
5.0

4.2
11.5
3.1
2.7

1.8
-2.4
.6
4.2

3.5
5.2
2.1
3.9

2.5
2.1
2.0
3.0

.6
-2.9
.7
1.6

Residential structures

-11.3
-12.5
-9.1
4.9

10.8
20.9
-4.8
38.1

13.8
14.9
11.8
6.1

3.7
4.6
1.9
5.8

-7.3
-2.4
-17.4
11.3

8.8
9.6
6.7
-3.5

6.9
11.8
-5.4
.5

4.0
5.6
-1.1
-1.7

.8
2.8
-5.4
-2.0

Exports
Imports

-13.8
-5.9

5.8
23.8

5.9
17.4

-2.4
4.5

5.6
7.6

18.4
10.4

14.4
6.5

12.5
5.3

9.4
3.3

3.8
8.2
8.8
.6

-2.7
-8.1
5.1
1.5

7.9
13.0
6.5
4.4

8.6
13.3
7.1
4.9

2.9
.0
4.8
5.3

2.3
2.1
6.0
2.5

-1.1
-5.9
-4.8
2.6

2.1
2.0
-1.3
2.2

1.2
-.
2
.0
2.1

-6.4
-.1
-19.9

62.3
57.8
-84.0

9.1
13.4
-104.3

15.4
17.9
-137.5

34.4
36.9
-128.9

43.7
42.5
-98.7

41.8
38.3
-75.8

23.3
25.5
-43.8

Units
EXPENDITURES
Nominal GNP
Real GNP

Billions of $

Real GNP

Percent change*

Billions of 82$

Gross domestic product
Gross domestic purchases

Services
Business fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment
Nonresidential structures

Government purchases
Federal
Defense
State and local
Change in business inventories

Billions of 82$

Nonfarm

Billions of 82$

t exports

Billions of 82$

-24.5
-23.1
26.3

inal GNP

Percent change*

3.1

10.4

8.6

6.6

4.8

8.3

7.1

7.0

5.5

LOYMENT AND PRODUCTION
Nonfarm payroll employment
Unemployment rate

Millions
Percent

89.6
9.7

90.2
9.6

94.5
7.5

97.5
7.2

99.5
7.0

102.3
6.2

106.0
5.5

108.6
5.4

109.7
5.9

Industrial production index
Capacity utilization rate-mfg.

Percent change*
Percent

-7.7
70.3

14.3
73.9

6.6
80.5

1.7
80.1

1.0
79.7

5.8
81.0

5.1
83.6

2.8
84.3

1.0
82.7

Housing Starts
Auto sales
Domestic
Foreign

Millions
Millions
Millions
Millions

1.06
8.00
5.77
2.23

1.71
9.18
6.77
2.41

1.77
10.43
7.97
2.46

1.74
11.09
8.24
2.84

1.81
11.52
8.28
3.25

1.63
10.34
7.14
3.21

1.48
10.56
7.44
3.12

1.43
10.25
7.25
2.99

1.36
9.37
6.57
2.79

INCOME AND SAVING
Nominal personal income
Real disposable income
Personal saving rate

Percent change*
Percent change*
Percent

5.3
1.0
6.8

7.8
5.1
5.4

8.4
4.3
6.1

6.6
2.7
4.4

5.9
3.4
4.0

8.5
3.0
3.2

6.8
3.3
4.1

7.4
2.3
4.2

6.5
1.1
4.3

Corp. profits with IVA & CCAdj
Profit share of GNP

Percent change*
Percent

-19.1
4.7

70.1
6.3

7.4
7.1

9.2
7.0

.9
7.0

7.6
6.9

3.9
6.7

1.5
6.5

-12.8
5.5

Federal govt. surplus/deficit
State and local govt. surplus
Exc. social insurance funds

Billions of $

-145.9
35.1
-1.7

-176.0
47.5
4.4

-169.6
64.6
19.8

-196.9
65.1
13.8

-205.6
61.2
5.0

-157.8
52.9
-9.2

-137.9
57.4
-11.0

-133.9
70.1
-3.5

-121.3
71.4
-6.6

5.2
5.0
4.4
4.4
5.2

3.6
3.9
3.3
3.2
4.2

2.8
2.7
2.5
1.3
3.9

3.1
4.0
4.7
4.4
4.3

4.1
4.5
4.0
4.3
4.6

1.0
7.3
6.2

3.6
3.3
-. 3

1.2
4.2
3.0

1.9
4.1
2.1

.8
4.5
3.7

PRICES AND COSTS
GNP implicit deflator
GNP fixed-weight price index
Cons. & fixed invest. prices
CPI
Exc. food and energy
arm business sector
tput per hour
ensation per hour
nit labor costs

Percent change*

* Percent changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter.

December 7, 1988
CONFIDENTIAL - FR

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Net changes, billions of 1982 dollars)

CLASS II FOMC

Projection
1988
------------

Projection
1990

1989
------------------------------------------------------------

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Real GNP
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic purchases

25.7
22.5
28.3

22.1
23.1
24.7

56.9
56.9
41.2

27.5
27.0
26.3

24.4
24.3
18.1

21.0
20.6
11.7

Final sales
Private dom. final purchases

24.2
32.8

21.9
18.7

49.8
30.0

24.9
19.7

30.0
19.1

26.8
13.7

Personal consumption expend.
Durables
Nondurables
Services

25.5
-1.1
11.9
14.7

15.4
-1.7
4.0
13.0

22.7
7.2
5.2
10.3

16.0
1.1
4.5
10.4

15.9
.8
4.6
10.5

Business fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment
Nonresidential structures
Residential structures

5.8
4.9
1.0
1.5

.7
1.8
-1.1
2.5

6.6
6.8
-.2
.7

5.2
5.6
-.3
-1.5

Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
Farm

1.4
6.6
-5.3

.3
14.6
-14.3

7.1
-12.8
19.9

Net exports
Exports
Imports

-2.6
13.8
16.4

-2.6
14.6
17.2

Government purchases
Federal
Defense
Nondefense
State and local

-6.0
-7.9
-8.1
.3
1.9

5.8
3.4
-.
3
3.7
2.4

Q1

Q2

9.6
9.8
.6

1987
1988
1989
1990
(fourth quarter to fourth quarter,
net change)

Q3

Q4

8.6
8.5
.2

13.5
13.6
5.1

14.2
14.4
6.2

188.3
188.3
171.9

110.0
116.3
81.8

129.8
128.8
97.3

46.0
46.2
12.2

17.0
5.4

14.8
4.2

12.9
2.3

15.3
4.8

110.7
76.2

140.1
120.9

131.5
82.6

60.1
16.8

11.7
-.
5
3.7
8.6

5.0
-3.7
2.8
6.0

3.9
-2.6
1.2
5.4

2.6
-4.0
1.2
5.4

5.0
-1.6
1.2
5.4

45.5
-9.7
5.2
50.0

88.2
20.2
19.0
48.9

66.3
8.6
18.0
39.7

16.5
-11.9
6.3
22.1

4.4
4.7
-.3
-1.1

3.4
3.8
-.
4
-1.4

2.2
2.9
-.
8
-1.8

1.4
2.9
-1.6
-1.1

.5
2.5
-2.0
-.
8

.1
2.5
-2.4
-.2

37.5
29.2
8.3
-7.0

31.9
39.1
-7.2
.9

19.6
21.0
-1.3
-3.3

4.1
10.8
-6.7
-3.8

2.6
3.2
-.
6

-5.6
-4.0
-1.6

-5.8
-2.3
-3.5

-7.4
-6.0
-1.4

-6.2
-5.6
-.
6

.6
1.0
-.
4

-1.1
-.7
-.4

77.6
67.0
10.6

-30.1
-16.9
-13.2

-1.7
-15.9
14.2

-14.1
-11.3
-2.8

15.7
17.6
1.9

1.2
15.8
14.6

6.3
15.1
8.7

9.2
17.0
7.7

9.1
14.4
5.3

8.4
13.7
5.4

8.4
14.1
5.7

8.0
13.3
5.4

16.4
71.4
55.0

28.2
66.1
37.9

32.5
65.4
33.0

33.8
55.6
21.8

4.1
1.6
-1.0
2.6
2.5

4.0
1.5
-.6
2.1
2.5

4.6
2.2
-.4
2.6
2.4

3.8
1.3
-1.4
2.7
2.5

2.2
-.
4
-.2
-.2
2.6

2.2
-.
3
-.
1
-.
2
2.5

2.5
.1
-.1
.2
2.4

18.1
7.2
15.1
-7.9
10.9

-9.0
-20.6
-13.0
-7.6
11.6

16.4
6.5
-3.4
9.9
9.9

2.5
.0
.4
-.4
2.5

CONFIDENTIAL

December 7,

CLASS II

1988

FEDERAL SECTOR ACCOUNTS
(Billions of dollars)
FRB Staff Projection
Fiscal
Year
1988a

_

FY1989p .__
FRBf
Adminl CB0 2 Staff

___ FY1990p
Admin

1

2

CBO

1988

FRB
Staff

IV

1989
I

II

III

IV

I

II

1990
III

I

I

Not seasonally adjusted

BUDGET
3

Budget receipts
3
Budget outlays
Surplus/deficitt -)
3
to be financed
(On-budget)
(Off-budget)
Means of financing:
Borrowing
Cash decrease
4
Other
Cash operating balance,
end of period

909
1064

974
1097

980
1127

-155
-194
39

-123
-174
51

-148
-199
52

166
-8
-3

118
0
5

147
n.a.
n.a.

145
4
7

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

135
n.a.
n.a.

125
0
1

44

20

n.a.

40

n.a.

n.a.

40

1054
1157
-156
-204
48

1064
1200

1069
1195

-102
-166
64

-136
-199
63

-126
-188
61

217
285

230
286

249
281

236
304

30
-23
-7
22

12

40

315
300

265
293

253
307

15
-6
21

-28
-44
16

-54
-67
13

10
-20
-5

32
-5
1

35

40

18

33
-5
4

35

253
297
-44
-61
17

18

15

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

NIPA FEDERAL SECTOR
Receipts
Expenditures
Purchases
Defense
Nondefense
Other expend.
Surplus/deficit

284
283

963
1107
381
297
83
726
-143

1042
1147
396
295
101
751
-105

1037
1171
396
306
91
776
-134

1038
1173
393
298
94
781
-136

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.

-157

n.a.

n.a.

1130
1249
416
315
101
832
-119

1123
1247
409
307
103
838
-124

999
1137
382
293
88
756
-138

1030
1172
392
298
94
780
-142

1053
1186
397
300
97
789
-133

1069
1198
400
302
99
798
-129

1086
1217
403
302
101
814
-132

1120
1244
410
307
103
834
-124

1133
1258
412
309
103
846
-124

1151
1269
414
310
103
856
-118

1170
1289
416
312
104
874
-119

-137

-151

-166

-158

-153

-155

-140

-132

-120

-115

.3

-. 2

-. 1

0

-. 3

-. 2

-. 2

-. 1

-1.4

-.2

-.3

-2.6

-2.5

-.2

-.1

-.1

FISCAL INDICATORS5
High-employment (HEB)
surplus/deficit(-)
Change in HEB, percent
of potential GNP
Fiscal impetus measure
(FI), percent
a--actual
Note:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

-151
.2

-.2 *

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

.1

n.a.

n.a.

-. 4

.3

n.a.

n.a.

-4.2 *

n.a.

n.a.

-4.8 *

-.5

p--projection

*--calendar year

n.a.--not available

Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

Mid-Session Review of the Fiscal 1989 Budget (July 28, 1988).
The Economic and Budget Outlook: An Update (August, 1988); estimates are "baseline" (i.e. current services).
Includes social security (OASDI) receipts, outlays and surplus, respectively.
The OASDI surplus is excluded from the "on-budget" deficit and
shown separately as "off-budget", as classified under current law.
Checks issued less checks paid, accrued items and changes in other financial assets and liabilities.
HEB is the NIPA measure in current dollars with cyclically-sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to a 6 percent unemployment rate. Quarterly
figures for change in HEB and F1 are not at annual rates. Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GNP, is reversed in sign. FI is
the weighted difference of discretionary federal spending and tax changes (in 1982 dollars), scaled by real federal purchases. For change in HEB
and FI, (-) indicates restraint.

DOMESTIC FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

Recent Developments
Interest rates have risen appreciably over the intermeeting period,
against a backdrop of stronger economic news, firming oil prices, and
heightened expectations of further monetary tightening.

While the

federal funds rate has edged up only marginally, to around
8-1/2 percent, other money market interest rates have risen 65 to
85 basis points since early November.

Banks, adjusting to the higher

financing costs, raised the prime lending rate 1/2 percentage point to
10-1/2 percent in late November.

Long-term rates had risen about

20 to 40 basis points in November, but about half of these increases
were retraced when bond markets rallied on December 6 in response to
anticipated remarks by Mikhail Gorbachev concerning a cutback in
military forces.

Thus, on balance over the intermeeting period, long

rates are up only about 20 basis points on Treasury bonds and 10 basis
points on corporates.

Yields on municipal bonds, which did not

participate in the December rally, have increased almost 40 points.
M2 and M3 growth picked up in November, buoyed by increased inflows
to money market mutual funds and a surge in savings deposits associated
with a large merger-related transaction.

Growth in small time deposits

continued near its brisk pace of the last two months, with banks taking
the lion's share of the increase and thrifts continuing to follow the
less aggressive pricing practices of recent months.

The strength in the

nontransactions component of the broader aggregates was offset in part

1-15

I-16
by flatness in Ml, as demand deposits resumed their runoff and currency
growth moderated.

Through November, M2 remained somewhat below, and M3

a bit above, the midpoints of their 1988 target ranges.
Aggregate credit flows thus far in the fourth quarter appear to be
continuing near the third-quarter pace, but business borrowing is
expected to strengthen somewhat over the remainder of the year.

Merger

and LBO financing were the primary source of corporate credit demands in
October and November, and such financing is expected to pick up as
arrangements for several huge restructurings are completed.
Excluding merger-related demands, business credit growth was
relatively flat last month, continuing the sluggish pattern evident over
the summer and fall.

Adjusted for mergers, the sum of business loans at

banks and commercial paper contracted slightly in November.

In

addition, bond issuance by investment-grade firms diminished sharply
after the announcement of the RJR Nabisco proposal produced large losses
for holders of RJR bonds.

Investors' growing concerns about the effect

on outstanding debt of unanticipated takeovers have boosted risk premia
on some investment-grade bonds by as much as 300 basis points.

In

efforts to reassure investors, a few higher-rated firms offering debt
recently have included bond covenants which, to a greater or lesser
degree, protect against such "event" risk.
Higher interest rates and continued weakness in the exchange value
of the dollar have done little to bolster investor interest in U.S.
equity markets.

Stock prices are down about 2 percent from October

highs, and average daily trading volume on the NYSE touched a two-year

-17

low in November.

In this environment, new equity issues by nonfinancial

firms have continued sparse and, coupled with the unprecedented amount
of stock retirements this quarter, net equity retirements in the fourth
quarter likely will greatly exceed previous records.
In municipal markets, the volume of new tax-exempt bond offerings
continued at a moderate pace in November although refunding issues
dropped off after midmonth as municipal bond rates rose.

Merger-related

disturbances in corporate bond markets seem to have had little net
effect on municipal markets.

Some tax-exempt industrial development

bonds backed by corporations have been adversely affected by concerns
about buyout risks.

However, yields on tax-exempt bonds generally rose

about in line with those on nonindustrial issues over most of the
intermeeting period, though they have not yet followed the recent
fallback in Treasury and corporate rates.
Net borrowing by the federal government has not increased
appreciably in the fourth quarter, despite a budget deficit estimated
to be almost twice that of the third quarter (not seasonally adjusted).
Nearly half of the budget revenue shortfall is to be financed by an
unusually large drawdown of the Treasury's cash balance.

The Treasury

is expected to borrow a total of $47 billion from the public, and with
restraints now lifted on the long-bond authority, coupon auctions have
returned to more normal amounts and likely will provide about
$21 billion of this total.
In the household sector, growth in consumer installment credit
expanded at a 6-1/2 percent rate in October after no growth in

I-18
September.

The pattern of installment credit growth in both months,

however, was distorted by seasonal adjustment problems arising from the
absence this September of automotive incentive programs that were in
place the three previous years.

Viewed in longer perspective,

installment credit growth since June has eased a bit below the firsthalf pace.

Interest rates on new-car and personal loans, meanwhile,

have increased 70 to 90 basis points since the spring.
In the home mortgage market, rates on fixed-rate loans in the
primary market are up about 20 basis points since the last FOMC meeting,
maintaining a narrow spread over comparable maturity Treasuries.
One-year ARM rates also have risen only a few basis points over the
intermeeting period.

Although the initial rate advantage for

adjustable-rate mortgages has narrowed steadily since spring, borrower
preference for such mortgages has been strong.

Total mortgage debt

growth in the third quarter was somewhat higher than in the second;
nonresidential mortgage lending rose substantially, and continued
strength in home sales kept home mortgage borrowing near the second
quarter's level.

Early indicators suggest that mortgage activity in the

fourth quarter is maintaining its recent growth.

Expansion of real

estate loans at commercial banks in October and November and
acquisitions of mortgage assets by thrifts in October continued near
their averages of earlier months.
Outlook
The staff anticipates that efforts to restrain wage and price
pressures will involve further tightening of reserve availability and

I-19
appreciably higher interest rates over the next year or so.

Bond rates

are expected to rise less than short rates, resulting in a flat or
Growth of M2 and M3 should

slightly inverted yield curve by early 1990.

remain near the relatively slow pace since spring.
Rising interest rates and the associated slowing in spending are
expected to damp the expansion of domestic nonfinancial debt next year
However, borrowing patterns in the next few months will

and into 1990.

be heavily influenced by corporate needs to finance recent large mergers
and buyouts.

A hefty share of the initial financing of the RJR Nabisco

and other large merger transactions will come from sources other than
long-term securities markets, primarily banks.

Down the road, such

loans likely will be repaid with funds raised through bond financing or
sales of assets.

Nonetheless, loans and open-market paper may continue

to be an important component of business debt growth next year given the
rising interest rate environment.
Merger activity is expected to proceed at a less frantic pace after
the announced megadeals are completed; even without restrictive
legislation from Congress, higher debt costs in 1989 may reduce the
attractiveness of heavily leveraged deals.

Indeed, it is likely that

some firms burdened with heavy debt will come under increasing stress in
1989 and 1990 as corporate profits decline.

In the aggregate, the gap

between capital outlays and internal funds of nonfinancial corporations
is expected to jump substantially in the current quarter and continue to
edge up over the projection horizon.

This rise, however, may be more

than offset by reduced merger activity next year, and, on balance,

I-20
corporate credit growth is projected to slow in the second half of 1989
and further out.
Growth in household debt in the near term is expected to continue
at around its recent pace, then taper down over 1989 and beyond as
higher interest rates restrain housing and mortgage activity.

Consumer

credit growth also is projected to resume a downtrend after the first
quarter, in line with moderating outlays for durables and other consumer
goods.
Federal sector borrowing is expected to slow a bit next year,
despite an increase in the calendar-year deficit, as a somewhat higher
proportion of the budget outlays are funded from cash balances and other
means of finance.
in 1990.

Both the deficit and borrowing are expected to shrink

Although many state and local governments likely face

deteriorating budget positions, net borrowing by this sector is expected
to remain near or just below 1988 levels.

Some reduction in issuance of

refunding bonds, owing to higher interest rates, may be offset by
increased security offerings to finance capital outlays for educational
and infrastructure improvements.

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

Recent developments
Since the November 1 FOMC meeting, the weighted-average exchange
value of the dollar in terms of other G-10 currencies has declined about
2 percent.

After a pause in late October and early November, the dollar

began to decline again after the U.S. election, as comments from U.S.
observers and foreign officials reinforced the market's shift in focus
toward the U.S. budget and trade deficits.

Sentiment remained negative

on the dollar through most of the intermeeting period,
Very
late in the period, however, the dollar appeared to be bolstered by
expectations of tightening by the Federal Reserve and the market
response to proposed cuts in Soviet armed forces.
In contrast to the situation in October, when the dollar fell
without central bank support, the Desk
times intervened on a substantial scale.

at
Early in the period, the Desk

purchased dollars against yen.

The Desk purchased a total of $1.6 billion against yen and

I-21

I-22

$600 million against marks, split evenly between Treasury and System
accounts.
Interest differentials between U.S. and foreign short-term assets
widened during the intermeeting period.

German interest rates rose

somewhat, with the German three-month rate and the average of long-term
bond yields both increasing about 15 basis points.

Interest rates fell

in Japan, with the three-month rate decreasing 10 basis points and the
yield of the bellwether bond falling 20 basis points.

In the United

Kingdom, the three-month rate rose more than 1 percentage point, as the
Bank of England increased its money market dealing rate 1 percentage
point to just below 13 percent.
Real economic activity accelerated or remained strong in most of
the major foreign industrial economies in the third quarter.

After

declining 3.3 percent in the second quarter, real GNP rose 9.3 percent
(s.a.a.r.)

in Japan in the third quarter, based on 7.4 percent growth in

domestic demand and a positive contribution to growth from the external
sector.

German real GNP rose 5.2 percent, led by exports and private

investment, while the output measure of real GDP in the United Kingdom
rose 5.3 percent.

French GDP rose 3.2 percent, about twice the second-

quarter pace, based on strength in consumer spending but with a large
negative contribution from net exports.

In contrast, growth slowed in

Canada in the third quarter, as real GDP increased 2.6 percent compared
with 4 percent growth in the second quarter.

Canadian consumption

remained strong, but investment spending slackened.

Little information

I-23

is available yet for the fourth quarter, but initial indicators suggest
a slowing of growth in Japan, Canada, and France.
Reflecting the pattern of demand growth reported for the third
quarter, external adjustment in Japan and Germany has slowed in recent
months.

Japan's trade surplus (s.a.) widened in September and October

in both nominal and real terms.

German trade and current account

surpluses for the first 10 months of 1988 are larger than those for the
comparable period in 1987.

Trade deficits widened in some of the other

major foreign industrial countries.

In October, the U.K. trade and

current account deficits reached record levels, and the French and
Italian trade deficits also increased.
Since mid-October, Mexican foreign exchange reserves have fallen
more than $2 billion.

In his inaugural address on December 1, Mexican

President Salinas called for new negotiations on Mexico's external debt
in order to reduce the total debt and the burden of debt-service
payments.

Financing arrangements in Brazil proceeded on schedule, with

Brazil repaying its remaining interest arrears.

The mid-November

municipal elections further weakened Brazilian President Sarney's
political position.

Late in October the World Bank approved $1.25

billion in loans for Argentina and in mid-November the Inter-American
Development Bank approved approximately $460 million in loans.
Discussions are continuing with the IMF on a new stand-by arrangement
for Argentina.

Peru, facing possible hyperinflation, implemented a new

economic package on November 23, including a 50 percent devaluation of
its currency and additional wage and price increases.

I-24

The U.S. merchandise trade deficit for September narrowed to a
monthly rate of $9.0 billion on an seasonally adjusted customs value
basis from the August deficit of $10.6 billion.

Exports continued to

grow in September, with increases recorded in industrial supplies,
capital goods, and consumer goods.

About one-third of the decrease in

September imports was due to a fall in the value of oil imports, as both
the volume and the price of imported oil declined from August levels.
Declines in non-oil imports were widespread across trade categories, as
only the value of automotive products increased in September.

On a

balance-of-payments basis, the trade balance continued to improve in the
third quarter, registering a deficit of $114 billion, at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate, reflecting higher prices for agricultural exports
and lower prices for oil imports.

In constant 1982 dollars, the third-

quarter deficit was little changed from the second-quarter level.
U.S. banks reported a substantial net outflow of funds in
September, primarily to related banks abroad, associated with a decline
in the level of commercial bank credit in the United States.

The

outflow slowed in October, and available data indicate a net inflow in
November.

Net foreign private purchases of U.S. securities amounted to

only $1 billion in September, and foreigners made small net sales of
U.S. Treasury obligations.

Foreign purchases of U.S. corporate bonds

remained sluggish in September; new issues of Eurobonds by U.S.
corporations were also small in October.

U.S. purchases of foreign

securities remained moderate in September, but these data do not reflect
the bonds issued in September on behalf of Israel by a U.S. trust to

I-25

refinance military purchases.

Foreign official reserve assets held in

the United States fell again in September (by $1.7 billion), but
preliminary data for October and November indicate that reserves of
industrial countries increased.
Outlook
On the basis of the recent OPEC agreement, oil prices are now
assumed to rise somewhat after the first quarter of 1989, reaching $15
per barrel by the end of the year.

Oil prices are assumed to stay at

the $15 per barrel level throughout 1990.
Reflecting the dollar's weakness so far this quarter, the foreign
exchange value of the dollar is now projected to be about 3 percent
lower for the final quarter of this year than projected in the previous
Greenbook.

From that lower level, the rate of depreciation is expected

to be a bit slower over the next two years than had been anticipated in
the October Greenbook.

However, downward pressures on the dollar could

well be more significant than the staff is now projecting, especially in
light of the staff's projection of only a moderate further narrowing of
the U.S. trade deficit in 1989.
Economic growth in the foreign industrial countries in 1988 and
early 1989 is projected to be slightly stronger than had been forecasted
previously.

Growth is expected to slow during the course of 1989,

reflecting tighter monetary conditions abroad, higher oil prices, and
the revised outlook for the U.S. economy.

Projected growth in the

developing countries has been shaded down a bit compared with the
October Greenbook, primarily because of an anticipated tightening of

I-26

macroeconomic policies in a few key countries.

Foreign economic

activity in 1990 is expected to increase at about the pace prevailing
toward the end of next year.
The staff forecast now calls for the U.S. trade deficit to be
essentially the same in the current quarter as it was in the third
quarter ($114 billion at an annual rate) and to narrow only marginally
in 1989

(to about $102 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter)

before dropping more substantially in 1990 (to about $70 billion at an
annual rate by the fourth quarter).

The difference in the pace of

adjustment in the two years reflects three factors:

the strength of the

dollar through most of 1988; the assumed rise in oil prices in 1989;
the slower growth of the U.S. economy in 1990.

and

Sharp shifts in the

volume of oil imports in the current quarter (up sharply) and the first
quarter of next year (down sharply) owing to fluctuations in inventories
mask an underlying uptrend in the volume of such imports in response to
rising U.S. demand.
By the end of 1989, the current account deficit is expected to be
about $110 billion (annual rate), an improvement of about $5 billion
over the fourth quarter of this year (nearly $10 billion excluding the
effect of exchange-rate-induced capital gains).

During 1990, the

current account is projected to strengthen substantially (by nearly $30
billion), with the improving trade position being offset somewhat by
rising net service payments.

Strictly Confidential
Class II FOMC

(FR)

Outlook for U.S. Net Exports and Related Items
(Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates)

ANNUAL
1988-P 1989-P 1990-P

Q3-

1988
Q4-P

QI-P

Q2-P

1989
Q3-P

Q4-P

QI-P

Q2-P

1990
Q3-P

Q4-P

1. GNP Exports and Imports 1/
Current $, Net
Exports of G+S
Imports of G+S

-91.5
519.1
610.6

-69.8
603.7
673.5

-39.5
686.9
726.4

-82.4
531.5
613.9

-81.1
549.8
630.9

-73.5
572.4
645.9

-72.8
593.2
665.9

-69.4
613.4
682.8

-63.5
635.8
699.4

-54.0
656.7
710.7

-45.0
676.4
721.4

-34.9
697.0
731.9

-24.2
717.3
741.5

Constant 82 $, Net
Exports of G+S
Imports of G+S

-98.7
504.8
603.4

-75.8
566.5
642.3

-43.8
625.8
669.6

-95.2
510.7
605.9

-97.8
525.3
623.1

-82.1
542.9
625.0

-80.9
558.7
639.6

-74.6
573.8
648.4

-65.4
590.7
656.1

-56.3
605.1
661.4

-47.9
618.8
666.7

-39.5
633.0
672.5

-31.6
646.3
677.9

-122.4 -106.4

-82.1

-114.1

-114.3

-107.9 -108.6

-106.6

-102.4

-94.0

-86.9

-78.4

-69.0

435.9
54.1
381.8

2. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance 2/
Exports
Agricultural
Non-Agricultural

321.8
39.0
282.7

367.3
44.9
322.4

415.8
52.0
363.8

329.2
41.6
287.6

338.2
39.8
298.4

351.3
43.5
307.7

361.4
44.2
317.2

371.7
44.5
327.2

384.8
47.3
337.5

397.4
50.0
347.3

408.6
51.2
357.4

421.4
52.5
368.9

Imports
Petroleum and Products
Non-Petroleum

444.2
39.4
404.8

473.7
39.3
434.4

497.9
44.2
453.7

443.4
39.5
403.9

452.5
37.3
415.1

459.1
35.2
424.0

470.0
38.5
431.5

478.3
40.1
438.2

487.2
43.3
443.9

491.4
43.5
447.9

495.5
43.9
451.6

499.8
44.4
455.4

504.9
45.0
459.9

-131.6 -111.9

-91.8

-111.5 -112.9 -111.9 -111.5

-101.8

-95.5

-87.8

-82.2
-11.8

3. U.S. Current Account Balance

-128.2 -115.7

-0.1

0.3

-8.6

-6.8

9.1

2.9

1.5

-0.6

-2.4

-5.2

-7.5

-9.8

Real GNP--Ten Industrial 4/
Real GNP--NonOPEC LDC 5/

3.7
3.2

2.8
3.6

2.4
3.7

4.6
3.3

3.1
3.6

2.6
3.8

2.6
3.8

2.3
3.6

2.2
3.5

2.4
3.5

2.5
3.8

2.6
4.1

2.6
4.4

Consumer Prices--Ten Ind. 4/

2.6

3.2

3.0

2.5

4.1

2.7

3.7

2.6

3.4

2.6

3.4

2.4

3.3

Of Which:

Net Investment Income

4. Foreign Outlook 3/

1/
?/
3/
4/
5/
P/

National Income and Product Account data.
International accounts basis.
Percent change, annual rates.
Weighted by multilateral trade-weights of G-10 countries plus Switzerland; prices are not seasonally adjusted.
Weighted by share in NonOPEC LDC GNP.
Projected