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Accessible Version Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-15 and over the longer run Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2012 through 2015 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2007 through 2011. Change in real GDP Percent 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run Actual 2.2 (3.3) (0.1) 2.4 2.0 Upper End of Range 2.0 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 1.8 3.0 3.5 3.7 2.5 Lower End of Central Tendency 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.0 2.3 Lower End of Range 1.6 2.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 Unemployment rate Percent 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run Actual 4.8 6.9 9.9 9.6 8.7 Upper End of Range 8.0 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.6 6.0 Lower End of Central Tendency 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.0 5.2 Lower End of Range 7.7 6.9 6.1 5.7 5.0 PCE inflation Percent 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run Actual 3.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.5 Upper End of Range 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Lower End of Central Tendency 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 Lower End of Range 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0 Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to the projections table. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy, December 2012 Appropriate timing of policy firming 2013 2014 2015 2016 Number of participants 2 3 13 1 Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to ¼ percent will occur in the specified calendar year. In September 2012, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 1, 3, 2, 12, and 1. Appropriate pace of policy firming Number of participants with projected targets Target federal funds rate at year-end 2012 2013 2014 2015 Longer Run (Percent) 0.25 19 17 14 1 0.50 1 1 5 0.75 3 1.00 1 3 1.25 2 1.50 2 1.75 1 2.00 1 2.25 2.50 1 2.75 1 3.00 1 3.25 3.50 1 1 3.75 1 3 4.00 5 4.25 6 4.50 1 3 Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest ¼ percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.