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Accessible Version
Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
December 11-12, 2012 Presentation Materials
Presentation Materials (PDF)
Pages 216 to 260 of the Transcript
Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Potter
Material for
FOMC Presentation: Financial Market Developments and Desk Operations
Simon Potter
December 11, 2012
Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)
Exhibit 1
Top-left panel
(1) Changes in Domestic Yields and Equities
10-Year Treasury Yield
(BPS)
S&P 500 Index
(Percent)
Around Election (11/6 - 11/15)
-15.79
-5.25
Total on Period
-13.57
0.35
Source: Bloomberg
Top-right panel
(2) Changes in Global Yields and Equities Over Intermeeting Period
Change in 10-Year Yield
Change in Equity Index
U.S.
-14 bps
+0.4%
U.K.
-8 bps
+2.0%
-28 bps
+4.8%
-8 bps
+5.7%
N/A
+2.9%
Germany
Japan
FTSE All-World Ex-US
Source: Bloomberg
Middle-left panel
(3) Implied Federal Funds Rate Path*
Percent
Date
As of 10/23/12
As of 12/07/12
7 December 2012
0.144
0.158
7 March 2013
0.135
0.140
7 June 2013
0.140
0.135
1 October 2013
0.156
0.126
1 January 2014
0.185
0.129
1 April 2014
0.227
0.143
1 July 2014
0.278
0.167
1 October 2014
0.336
0.202
1 January 2015
0.404
0.245
1 April 2015
0.475
0.289
1 July 2015
0.566
0.350
1 October 2015
0.675
0.428
1 April 2016
0.934
0.650
1 October 2016
1.210
0.917
* Derived from federal funds and Eurodollar futures. Return to text
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bloomberg
Middle-right panel
(4) Probability of FOMC Adopting Thresholds For First Rate Hike
(Average Forecasts)
Percent
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Quantitative Thresholds
Qualitative Thresholds
December Meeting
13.81
13.45
January Meeting
19.43
17.05
March Meeting
33.10
28.64
Within 2 Years
73.36
73.69
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey
Bottom-left panel
(5) Expected Outcome and Effects of Fiscal Cliff*
(Average Probabilities and Median Effects)
Probability of Scenario
Effect on 10-Year Treasury
Current Law
19%
-40 bps
No Fiscal Restraint
18%
+40 bps
Alternative Scenario**
55%
+5 bps
* Based on CBO policy scenarios, which do not encompass entire range of possible outcomes. Probabilities of these scenarios add to 92%. Return to text
** Compromise scenario with extensions of some measures. Return to table
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey
Bottom-right panel
(6) 3-Month 25-Delta Strangle Prices
Percent/Year
Date
S&P 500 Index
EUR-USD
1 June 2011
32.96
25.51
2 June 2011
33.06
25.41
3 June 2011
33.56
24.55
6 June 2011
34.39
24.39
7 June 2011
33.41
23.72
8 June 2011
34.54
24.54
9 June 2011
32.84
24.42
10 June 2011
34.12
25.02
13 June 2011
35.26
25.42
14 June 2011
33.62
25.20
15 June 2011
37.38
27.89
16 June 2011
39.34
27.96
17 June 2011
38.53
26.82
20 June 2011
36.84
27.09
21 June 2011
34.59
26.67
22 June 2011
34.71
26.22
23 June 2011
36.33
27.43
24 June 2011
37.61
27.42
27 June 2011
36.27
28.06
28 June 2011
35.18
27.17
29 June 2011
32.86
26.45
30 June 2011
31.75
25.48
1 July 2011
30.42
24.98
4 July 2011
30.42
24.60
5 July 2011
30.96
24.87
6 July 2011
31.80
25.38
7 July 2011
30.82
24.46
8 July 2011
31.78
25.02
11 July 2011
34.94
27.84
12 July 2011
35.49
28.02
13 July 2011
35.94
26.98
14 July 2011
37.36
27.08
15 July 2011
36.25
27.48
18 July 2011
37.54
28.37
19 July 2011
34.94
28.16
20 July 2011
34.74
27.63
21 July 2011
33.20
26.30
22 July 2011
32.84
25.30
25 July 2011
34.95
24.74
26 July 2011
35.42
24.59
27 July 2011
38.58
25.56
28 July 2011
39.36
25.81
29 July 2011
39.96
26.33
1 August 2011
38.55
26.88
2 August 2011
40.70
27.43
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3 August 2011
40.68
27.04
4 August 2011
48.48
28.69
5 August 2011
53.80
28.50
8 August 2011
62.02
30.20
9 August 2011
58.60
30.80
10 August 2011
60.95
30.54
11 August 2011
56.62
30.90
12 August 2011
56.10
28.98
15 August 2011
50.92
27.64
16 August 2011
51.10
27.54
17 August 2011
50.63
27.58
18 August 2011
62.25
29.12
19 August 2011
63.80
28.91
22 August 2011
62.84
28.64
23 August 2011
57.50
28.22
24 August 2011
56.04
28.23
25 August 2011
59.53
28.14
26 August 2011
57.36
27.57
29 August 2011
52.21
27.07
30 August 2011
52.49
26.81
31 August 2011
53.80
26.33
1 September 2011
53.26
26.90
2 September 2011
56.54
27.93
5 September 2011
56.54
30.58
6 September 2011
58.35
32.15
7 September 2011
54.82
30.48
8 September 2011
56.29
30.56
9 September 2011
64.04
33.36
12 September 2011
65.11
33.92
13 September 2011
61.84
32.79
14 September 2011
58.00
32.09
15 September 2011
57.05
30.31
16 September 2011
55.77
31.29
19 September 2011
56.90
32.69
20 September 2011
56.45
33.09
21 September 2011
58.34
33.80
22 September 2011
68.92
36.13
23 September 2011
66.49
36.48
26 September 2011
65.01
36.55
27 September 2011
61.58
34.39
28 September 2011
64.76
34.13
29 September 2011
67.00
33.63
30 September 2011
68.68
33.73
3 October 2011
73.57
34.90
4 October 2011
72.88
34.65
5 October 2011
65.46
33.66
6 October 2011
64.35
32.33
7 October 2011
62.25
31.51
10 October 2011
59.92
30.20
11 October 2011
57.78
30.64
12 October 2011
53.25
30.00
13 October 2011
53.74
30.60
14 October 2011
50.12
29.87
17 October 2011
53.79
30.51
18 October 2011
52.18
30.83
19 October 2011
56.95
30.96
20 October 2011
56.98
31.98
21 October 2011
53.87
31.65
24 October 2011
50.40
31.14
25 October 2011
52.18
30.49
26 October 2011
50.89
30.53
27 October 2011
44.09
28.56
28 October 2011
43.99
27.83
31 October 2011
48.54
28.90
1 November 2011
55.62
32.13
2 November 2011
53.74
31.38
3 November 2011
50.83
31.46
4 November 2011
52.16
30.56
51.29
31.01
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7 November
2011
8 November 2011
49.01
30.45
9 November 2011
57.85
33.10
10 November 2011
55.73
33.15
11 November 2011
52.64
31.81
14 November 2011
54.83
32.20
15 November 2011
53.09
32.69
16 November 2011
56.04
32.88
17 November 2011
60.34
32.71
18 November 2011
58.63
32.09
21 November 2011
59.68
32.69
22 November 2011
58.77
32.86
23 November 2011
61.23
33.97
24 November 2011
61.23
33.66
25 November 2011
62.64
34.07
28 November 2011
59.62
33.51
29 November 2011
57.37
33.26
30 November 2011
52.68
32.52
1 December 2011
51.18
31.92
2 December 2011
51.34
31.70
5 December 2011
52.05
30.72
6 December 2011
51.59
30.70
7 December 2011
53.39
30.98
8 December 2011
55.47
31.88
9 December 2011
51.14
31.57
12 December 2011
53.10
31.49
13 December 2011
52.21
31.84
14 December 2011
52.69
32.62
15 December 2011
50.86
31.16
16 December 2011
50.46
29.61
19 December 2011
50.57
29.57
20 December 2011
46.51
29.33
21 December 2011
44.83
29.48
22 December 2011
44.11
29.51
23 December 2011
43.66
29.14
26 December 2011
43.66
29.20
27 December 2011
43.79
29.17
28 December 2011
46.27
29.28
29 December 2011
44.95
30.34
30 December 2011
45.42
30.22
2 January 2012
45.42
30.27
3 January 2012
44.07
29.04
4 January 2012
42.85
28.87
5 January 2012
41.70
28.88
6 January 2012
40.85
28.26
9 January 2012
40.73
26.75
10 January 2012
39.79
25.90
11 January 2012
40.35
26.44
12 January 2012
40.24
25.74
13 January 2012
41.86
26.15
16 January 2012
41.86
25.99
17 January 2012
41.53
25.80
18 January 2012
39.70
25.59
19 January 2012
38.66
25.31
20 January 2012
37.60
25.14
23 January 2012
36.72
24.83
24 January 2012
36.67
25.32
25 January 2012
35.06
25.31
26 January 2012
36.53
24.61
27 January 2012
35.47
24.95
30 January 2012
36.62
25.77
31 January 2012
36.77
25.49
1 February 2012
35.58
24.83
2 February 2012
35.04
24.47
3 February 2012
33.54
24.47
6 February 2012
33.99
25.33
7 February 2012
33.50
24.61
8 February 2012
34.20
23.74
9 February 2012
34.93
23.21
39.32
24.13
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10 February
2012
13 February 2012
36.30
23.57
14 February 2012
39.00
24.01
15 February 2012
39.48
25.11
16 February 2012
36.88
24.93
17 February 2012
35.87
24.51
20 February 2012
35.87
23.65
21 February 2012
36.27
22.79
22 February 2012
35.70
22.58
23 February 2012
33.68
21.96
24 February 2012
34.01
21.99
27 February 2012
34.09
22.51
28 February 2012
34.52
22.31
29 February 2012
34.44
22.67
1 March 2012
34.01
22.76
2 March 2012
33.93
22.96
5 March 2012
34.74
22.90
6 March 2012
38.09
23.46
7 March 2012
36.28
22.91
8 March 2012
34.38
22.19
9 March 2012
33.82
22.29
12 March 2012
33.23
22.02
13 March 2012
31.95
22.08
14 March 2012
33.74
22.38
15 March 2012
33.33
21.79
16 March 2012
32.48
21.10
19 March 2012
32.18
21.09
20 March 2012
32.48
21.08
21 March 2012
31.18
21.10
22 March 2012
32.93
21.33
23 March 2012
30.76
20.85
26 March 2012
29.30
20.51
27 March 2012
30.15
20.42
28 March 2012
31.69
20.46
29 March 2012
31.11
20.61
30 March 2012
30.70
20.47
2 April 2012
30.17
20.26
3 April 2012
31.48
20.38
4 April 2012
32.30
21.65
5 April 2012
32.85
21.94
6 April 2012
32.85
21.36
9 April 2012
34.32
21.73
10 April 2012
38.57
22.21
11 April 2012
37.82
22.13
12 April 2012
35.44
21.39
13 April 2012
36.41
21.72
16 April 2012
37.13
21.93
17 April 2012
34.47
21.42
18 April 2012
34.68
21.16
19 April 2012
35.74
21.15
20 April 2012
34.60
20.80
23 April 2012
35.85
21.29
24 April 2012
35.11
20.83
25 April 2012
32.62
20.46
26 April 2012
31.23
20.23
27 April 2012
31.06
19.73
30 April 2012
32.46
19.79
1 May 2012
31.06
20.07
2 May 2012
31.98
20.71
3 May 2012
32.82
20.19
4 May 2012
34.92
20.18
7 May 2012
34.62
21.14
8 May 2012
35.09
21.70
9 May 2012
36.82
22.50
10 May 2012
35.57
21.80
11 May 2012
36.40
21.76
14 May 2012
38.99
23.43
15 May 2012
40.82
24.23
16 May 2012
41.41
24.73
42.72
25.43
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17 May
2012
18 May 2012
44.96
26.34
21 May 2012
41.66
24.85
22 May 2012
41.40
24.40
23 May 2012
42.26
26.52
24 May 2012
41.76
26.04
25 May 2012
41.79
26.44
28 May 2012
41.79
25.76
29 May 2012
39.94
25.79
30 May 2012
42.07
26.84
31 May 2012
41.84
26.88
1 June 2012
47.16
26.83
4 June 2012
47.02
26.64
5 June 2012
45.17
26.81
6 June 2012
42.37
26.26
7 June 2012
39.71
24.86
8 June 2012
39.77
25.58
11 June 2012
41.76
25.81
12 June 2012
41.98
26.20
13 June 2012
44.60
25.57
14 June 2012
42.50
25.70
15 June 2012
38.95
25.39
18 June 2012
36.58
24.61
19 June 2012
35.10
23.21
20 June 2012
35.44
22.50
21 June 2012
38.36
23.08
22 June 2012
36.19
22.63
25 June 2012
38.20
22.85
26 June 2012
37.49
22.53
27 June 2012
37.78
22.40
28 June 2012
38.79
22.71
29 June 2012
34.66
21.23
2 July 2012
33.37
21.34
3 July 2012
32.60
21.23
4 July 2012
32.60
21.51
5 July 2012
33.80
21.56
6 July 2012
34.31
22.08
9 July 2012
34.83
21.99
10 July 2012
36.01
21.95
11 July 2012
35.82
21.87
12 July 2012
35.51
22.53
13 July 2012
33.38
21.35
16 July 2012
33.72
21.05
17 July 2012
32.68
20.86
18 July 2012
32.30
20.10
19 July 2012
32.26
19.92
20 July 2012
33.44
20.23
23 July 2012
35.77
21.77
24 July 2012
38.49
22.82
25 July 2012
37.29
22.82
26 July 2012
34.70
22.03
27 July 2012
32.91
21.58
30 July 2012
34.28
22.02
31 July 2012
35.06
22.11
1 August 2012
34.74
22.44
2 August 2012
35.09
22.38
3 August 2012
32.86
20.47
6 August 2012
32.32
20.39
7 August 2012
32.42
19.72
8 August 2012
32.13
20.25
9 August 2012
31.46
20.09
10 August 2012
31.25
20.03
13 August 2012
31.20
19.66
14 August 2012
32.08
19.78
15 August 2012
32.38
20.44
16 August 2012
32.04
20.25
17 August 2012
31.19
19.97
20 August 2012
31.77
20.10
21 August 2012
32.46
19.97
32.75
19.83
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22 August
2012
23 August 2012
33.94
19.59
24 August 2012
32.77
19.73
27 August 2012
33.44
19.91
28 August 2012
33.72
20.49
29 August 2012
34.24
21.00
30 August 2012
35.33
21.58
31 August 2012
35.13
21.04
3 September 2012
35.13
20.83
4 September 2012
35.01
20.40
5 September 2012
34.11
20.52
6 September 2012
31.95
19.51
7 September 2012
30.20
18.22
10 September 2012
30.65
18.22
11 September 2012
31.37
18.28
12 September 2012
30.97
18.00
13 September 2012
28.30
18.18
14 September 2012
29.17
18.47
17 September 2012
29.89
18.34
18 September 2012
29.01
18.53
19 September 2012
28.18
17.83
20 September 2012
28.57
18.37
21 September 2012
28.03
18.20
24 September 2012
27.94
18.39
25 September 2012
29.29
18.40
26 September 2012
30.99
18.71
27 September 2012
28.82
18.13
28 September 2012
29.60
17.93
1 October 2012
30.28
17.90
2 October 2012
30.31
17.80
3 October 2012
29.58
17.84
4 October 2012
28.92
17.75
5 October 2012
28.82
17.61
8 October 2012
29.22
17.98
9 October 2012
30.54
17.95
10 October 2012
30.84
17.61
11 October 2012
29.97
17.41
12 October 2012
30.17
17.27
15 October 2012
29.53
17.26
16 October 2012
29.15
17.31
17 October 2012
28.70
17.50
18 October 2012
28.84
17.46
19 October 2012
30.52
17.23
22 October 2012
31.29
17.15
23 October 2012
32.49
17.32
24 October 2012
32.98
17.34
25 October 2012
32.51
17.23
26 October 2012
31.58
17.13
29 October 2012
31.58
17.04
30 October 2012
31.58
16.68
31 October 2012
32.40
16.50
1 November 2012
30.57
16.34
2 November 2012
31.22
16.37
5 November 2012
32.38
16.67
6 November 2012
31.31
16.61
7 November 2012
33.47
16.79
8 November 2012
34.06
16.61
9 November 2012
34.46
16.71
12 November 2012
33.69
16.50
13 November 2012
33.10
16.17
14 November 2012
34.87
15.68
15 November 2012
35.63
15.58
16 November 2012
33.70
15.45
19 November 2012
31.03
14.98
20 November 2012
30.59
14.66
21 November 2012
30.67
14.98
22 November 2012
30.67
15.18
23 November 2012
29.69
15.39
26 November 2012
30.31
15.37
30.44
15.10
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27 November
2012
28 November 2012
30.31
15.28
29 November 2012
29.69
15.32
30 November 2012
30.62
15.68
3 December 2012
31.32
15.78
4 December 2012
32.04
15.59
5 December 2012
31.32
15.66
6 December 2012
31.94
15.91
7 December 2012
30.96
16.19
Note: Vertical lines indicate Debt Ceiling on July 31, 2011, Draghi Speech on July 26, 2012, and Election on November 6, 2012.
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Exhibit 2
Top-left panel
(7) Corporate Debt Spreads to Treasury
Basis points
Date
Investment Grade
High Yield
30 July 2010
175
642
2 August 2010
174
638
3 August 2010
174
639
4 August 2010
173
632
5 August 2010
173
635
6 August 2010
173
641
9 August 2010
173
639
10 August 2010
174
644
11 August 2010
177
661
12 August 2010
178
667
13 August 2010
179
670
16 August 2010
179
670
17 August 2010
178
664
18 August 2010
177
661
19 August 2010
176
664
20 August 2010
177
664
23 August 2010
177
665
24 August 2010
180
677
25 August 2010
181
676
26 August 2010
181
676
27 August 2010
182
666
30 August 2010
184
673
31 August 2010
186
680
1 September 2010
185
668
2 September 2010
183
661
3 September 2010
182
654
7 September 2010
177
656
8 September 2010
179
650
9 September 2010
177
636
10 September 2010
176
628
13 September 2010
173
627
14 September 2010
173
629
15 September 2010
175
624
16 September 2010
175
616
17 September 2010
175
616
20 September 2010
174
616
21 September 2010
175
622
22 September 2010
175
626
23 September 2010
176
629
24 September 2010
176
624
27 September 2010
175
626
28 September 2010
176
628
29 September 2010
175
622
30 September 2010
175
621
1 October 2010
175
616
4 October 2010
174
617
5 October 2010
173
612
6 October 2010
170
609
7 October 2010
170
606
8 October 2010
170
606
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12 October 2010
169
601
13 October 2010
169
596
14 October 2010
170
593
15 October 2010
174
592
18 October 2010
174
599
19 October 2010
173
600
20 October 2010
174
603
21 October 2010
172
595
22 October 2010
172
592
25 October 2010
169
588
26 October 2010
168
575
27 October 2010
167
569
28 October 2010
167
574
29 October 2010
168
575
1 November 2010
169
578
2 November 2010
168
577
3 November 2010
168
576
4 November 2010
165
572
5 November 2010
164
563
8 November 2010
163
556
9 November 2010
162
548
10 November 2010
164
562
12 November 2010
164
561
15 November 2010
166
557
16 November 2010
167
579
17 November 2010
166
580
18 November 2010
164
570
19 November 2010
164
573
22 November 2010
165
582
23 November 2010
167
597
24 November 2010
167
588
26 November 2010
168
591
29 November 2010
169
598
30 November 2010
171
608
1 December 2010
171
587
2 December 2010
169
576
3 December 2010
169
574
6 December 2010
169
579
7 December 2010
165
554
8 December 2010
163
549
9 December 2010
161
547
10 December 2010
161
542
13 December 2010
162
546
14 December 2010
161
531
15 December 2010
161
529
16 December 2010
161
534
17 December 2010
160
544
20 December 2010
160
541
21 December 2010
160
542
22 December 2010
159
535
23 December 2010
158
529
27 December 2010
158
528
28 December 2010
158
516
29 December 2010
157
526
30 December 2010
156
522
31 December 2010
156
526
3 January 2011
154
515
4 January 2011
152
511
5 January 2011
151
495
6 January 2011
151
497
7 January 2011
152
505
10 January 2011
153
510
11 January 2011
150
504
12 January 2011
150
500
13 January 2011
152
502
14 January 2011
152
499
18 January 2011
150
496
19 January 2011
150
498
150
490
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
20 January
2011
21 January 2011
150
491
24 January 2011
149
489
25 January 2011
150
494
26 January 2011
149
486
27 January 2011
150
490
28 January 2011
150
489
31 January 2011
150
491
1 February 2011
149
482
2 February 2011
148
473
3 February 2011
147
466
4 February 2011
145
452
7 February 2011
142
448
8 February 2011
140
436
9 February 2011
140
443
10 February 2011
140
440
11 February 2011
140
444
14 February 2011
139
444
15 February 2011
137
444
16 February 2011
137
442
17 February 2011
137
443
18 February 2011
137
442
22 February 2011
139
455
23 February 2011
140
456
24 February 2011
142
463
25 February 2011
141
463
28 February 2011
139
463
1 March 2011
140
459
2 March 2011
140
454
3 March 2011
138
443
4 March 2011
139
451
7 March 2011
139
452
8 March 2011
139
448
9 March 2011
139
455
10 March 2011
140
470
11 March 2011
141
474
14 March 2011
141
481
15 March 2011
146
497
16 March 2011
147
502
17 March 2011
147
498
18 March 2011
146
490
21 March 2011
144
481
22 March 2011
143
479
23 March 2011
143
480
24 March 2011
142
473
25 March 2011
142
468
28 March 2011
142
466
29 March 2011
142
463
30 March 2011
142
466
31 March 2011
142
465
1 April 2011
142
460
4 April 2011
141
461
5 April 2011
139
455
6 April 2011
138
445
7 April 2011
137
446
8 April 2011
136
443
11 April 2011
136
443
12 April 2011
137
453
13 April 2011
137
455
14 April 2011
138
453
15 April 2011
138
461
18 April 2011
139
467
19 April 2011
139
468
20 April 2011
137
459
21 April 2011
137
457
25 April 2011
137
461
26 April 2011
137
462
27 April 2011
137
460
28 April 2011
137
464
138
462
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
29 April
2011
2 May 2011
138
459
3 May 2011
138
462
4 May 2011
137
462
5 May 2011
138
465
6 May 2011
139
465
9 May 2011
139
466
10 May 2011
139
460
11 May 2011
139
463
12 May 2011
140
461
13 May 2011
141
463
16 May 2011
141
464
17 May 2011
141
469
18 May 2011
141
466
19 May 2011
141
468
20 May 2011
141
469
23 May 2011
142
476
24 May 2011
143
477
25 May 2011
144
482
26 May 2011
145
491
27 May 2011
146
491
31 May 2011
146
492
1 June 2011
146
496
2 June 2011
148
499
3 June 2011
149
508
6 June 2011
149
508
7 June 2011
149
512
8 June 2011
151
522
9 June 2011
151
524
10 June 2011
152
529
13 June 2011
153
532
14 June 2011
152
524
15 June 2011
153
538
16 June 2011
155
552
17 June 2011
154
549
20 June 2011
155
554
21 June 2011
155
552
22 June 2011
155
549
23 June 2011
157
560
24 June 2011
158
565
27 June 2011
158
563
28 June 2011
157
550
29 June 2011
155
539
30 June 2011
153
525
1 July 2011
152
518
5 July 2011
151
521
6 July 2011
151
524
7 July 2011
149
511
8 July 2011
150
523
11 July 2011
152
540
12 July 2011
153
544
13 July 2011
152
542
14 July 2011
152
536
15 July 2011
154
538
18 July 2011
155
541
19 July 2011
155
541
20 July 2011
154
535
21 July 2011
154
525
22 July 2011
152
525
25 July 2011
153
523
26 July 2011
152
526
27 July 2011
152
523
28 July 2011
152
527
29 July 2011
153
540
1 August 2011
153
548
2 August 2011
153
565
3 August 2011
155
573
4 August 2011
158
601
5 August 2011
163
609
173
670
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
8 August
2011
9 August 2011
179
704
10 August 2011
181
715
11 August 2011
189
725
12 August 2011
189
714
15 August 2011
197
697
16 August 2011
197
697
17 August 2011
197
693
18 August 2011
201
709
19 August 2011
206
716
22 August 2011
207
718
23 August 2011
212
733
24 August 2011
216
731
25 August 2011
213
731
26 August 2011
214
736
29 August 2011
214
728
30 August 2011
212
727
31 August 2011
208
708
1 September 2011
207
703
2 September 2011
209
711
6 September 2011
213
731
7 September 2011
211
719
8 September 2011
212
718
9 September 2011
215
727
12 September 2011
220
740
13 September 2011
221
739
14 September 2011
220
733
15 September 2011
220
725
16 September 2011
220
722
19 September 2011
223
735
20 September 2011
223
734
21 September 2011
223
735
22 September 2011
231
767
23 September 2011
237
770
26 September 2011
236
771
27 September 2011
234
762
28 September 2011
235
772
29 September 2011
236
785
30 September 2011
238
807
3 October 2011
243
838
4 October 2011
252
876
5 October 2011
252
865
6 October 2011
249
837
7 October 2011
247
821
11 October 2011
241
801
12 October 2011
237
775
13 October 2011
235
774
14 October 2011
231
761
17 October 2011
230
749
18 October 2011
230
749
19 October 2011
224
732
20 October 2011
221
725
21 October 2011
218
708
24 October 2011
214
693
25 October 2011
212
690
26 October 2011
211
683
27 October 2011
202
648
28 October 2011
200
650
31 October 2011
202
667
1 November 2011
208
699
2 November 2011
208
693
3 November 2011
207
684
4 November 2011
207
685
7 November 2011
208
688
8 November 2011
211
683
9 November 2011
218
706
10 November 2011
219
704
14 November 2011
219
702
15 November 2011
225
708
227
710
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
16 November
2011
17 November 2011
232
717
18 November 2011
232
718
21 November 2011
237
735
22 November 2011
241
746
23 November 2011
246
759
25 November 2011
249
756
28 November 2011
245
751
29 November 2011
246
749
30 November 2011
243
734
1 December 2011
243
725
2 December 2011
237
720
5 December 2011
232
711
6 December 2011
232
708
7 December 2011
232
710
8 December 2011
233
713
9 December 2011
235
711
12 December 2011
236
718
13 December 2011
236
717
14 December 2011
237
722
15 December 2011
239
723
16 December 2011
239
724
19 December 2011
238
723
20 December 2011
238
712
21 December 2011
238
708
22 December 2011
237
704
23 December 2011
237
696
27 December 2011
236
696
28 December 2011
235
700
29 December 2011
234
697
30 December 2011
234
699
3 January 2012
233
682
4 January 2012
231
674
5 January 2012
231
678
6 January 2012
230
675
9 January 2012
228
675
10 January 2012
226
669
11 January 2012
227
674
12 January 2012
226
670
13 January 2012
225
677
17 January 2012
224
671
18 January 2012
222
671
19 January 2012
219
656
20 January 2012
217
647
23 January 2012
214
641
24 January 2012
213
640
25 January 2012
212
643
26 January 2012
208
636
27 January 2012
207
632
30 January 2012
207
642
31 January 2012
206
643
1 February 2012
205
636
2 February 2012
203
636
3 February 2012
200
623
6 February 2012
196
625
7 February 2012
194
617
8 February 2012
192
609
9 February 2012
191
605
10 February 2012
193
616
13 February 2012
191
611
14 February 2012
191
612
15 February 2012
191
614
16 February 2012
194
614
17 February 2012
191
607
21 February 2012
189
597
22 February 2012
189
599
23 February 2012
189
595
24 February 2012
187
585
27 February 2012
187
590
185
586
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
28 February
2012
29 February 2012
181
577
1 March 2012
180
573
2 March 2012
180
579
5 March 2012
180
584
6 March 2012
184
605
7 March 2012
186
599
8 March 2012
184
591
9 March 2012
184
586
12 March 2012
184
584
13 March 2012
182
574
14 March 2012
179
561
15 March 2012
176
567
16 March 2012
174
565
19 March 2012
173
559
20 March 2012
174
561
21 March 2012
174
566
22 March 2012
176
572
23 March 2012
177
573
26 March 2012
176
572
27 March 2012
176
573
28 March 2012
175
574
29 March 2012
177
584
30 March 2012
176
576
2 April 2012
177
579
3 April 2012
177
571
4 April 2012
179
579
5 April 2012
181
585
9 April 2012
185
603
10 April 2012
187
612
11 April 2012
188
609
12 April 2012
186
603
13 April 2012
185
605
16 April 2012
186
606
17 April 2012
185
598
18 April 2012
186
599
19 April 2012
186
600
20 April 2012
186
598
23 April 2012
189
603
24 April 2012
188
598
25 April 2012
186
589
26 April 2012
186
589
27 April 2012
186
586
30 April 2012
185
582
1 May 2012
186
574
2 May 2012
185
574
3 May 2012
183
572
4 May 2012
184
572
7 May 2012
186
576
8 May 2012
186
580
9 May 2012
189
584
10 May 2012
188
580
11 May 2012
190
581
14 May 2012
192
593
15 May 2012
193
596
16 May 2012
197
604
17 May 2012
202
626
18 May 2012
206
634
21 May 2012
207
644
22 May 2012
208
635
23 May 2012
210
658
24 May 2012
209
656
25 May 2012
208
656
29 May 2012
206
653
30 May 2012
208
665
31 May 2012
209
671
1 June 2012
214
688
4 June 2012
215
689
5 June 2012
215
695
213
679
Loading
6 June[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
2012
7 June 2012
209
668
8 June 2012
210
667
11 June 2012
208
664
12 June 2012
210
665
13 June 2012
210
665
14 June 2012
210
662
15 June 2012
208
662
18 June 2012
208
659
19 June 2012
206
644
20 June 2012
203
633
21 June 2012
202
632
22 June 2012
201
630
25 June 2012
202
638
26 June 2012
202
635
27 June 2012
202
631
28 June 2012
203
631
29 June 2012
199
615
2 July 2012
199
617
3 July 2012
197
611
5 July 2012
196
612
6 July 2012
197
614
9 July 2012
198
613
10 July 2012
196
609
11 July 2012
195
606
12 July 2012
193
611
13 July 2012
192
609
16 July 2012
191
612
17 July 2012
188
609
18 July 2012
183
607
19 July 2012
181
598
20 July 2012
183
599
23 July 2012
187
613
24 July 2012
188
615
25 July 2012
187
615
26 July 2012
185
610
27 July 2012
182
592
30 July 2012
180
591
31 July 2012
178
595
1 August 2012
178
579
2 August 2012
178
583
3 August 2012
177
572
6 August 2012
176
570
7 August 2012
174
565
8 August 2012
174
565
9 August 2012
174
568
10 August 2012
174
577
13 August 2012
173
576
14 August 2012
172
570
15 August 2012
173
569
16 August 2012
173
569
17 August 2012
171
569
20 August 2012
171
568
21 August 2012
171
565
22 August 2012
171
569
23 August 2012
171
572
24 August 2012
172
569
27 August 2012
171
568
28 August 2012
171
571
29 August 2012
171
569
30 August 2012
171
571
31 August 2012
172
575
4 September 2012
172
572
5 September 2012
172
569
6 September 2012
170
558
7 September 2012
167
551
10 September 2012
166
547
11 September 2012
165
542
12 September 2012
164
531
162
529
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
13 September
2012
14 September 2012
157
513
17 September 2012
156
514
18 September 2012
156
516
19 September 2012
155
516
20 September 2012
155
522
21 September 2012
155
525
24 September 2012
156
533
25 September 2012
156
539
26 September 2012
159
562
27 September 2012
157
556
28 September 2012
156
551
1 October 2012
155
552
2 October 2012
154
552
3 October 2012
153
551
4 October 2012
151
545
5 October 2012
148
536
9 October 2012
146
541
10 October 2012
147
545
11 October 2012
145
541
12 October 2012
143
541
15 October 2012
141
537
16 October 2012
138
529
17 October 2012
133
516
18 October 2012
131
513
19 October 2012
131
519
22 October 2012
133
517
23 October 2012
137
531
24 October 2012
136
528
25 October 2012
136
526
26 October 2012
136
533
29 October 2012
138
540
31 October 2012
137
543
1 November 2012
137
539
2 November 2012
137
537
5 November 2012
139
539
6 November 2012
140
532
7 November 2012
140
545
8 November 2012
142
548
9 November 2012
145
559
13 November 2012
145
564
14 November 2012
145
567
15 November 2012
148
579
16 November 2012
150
584
19 November 2012
149
573
20 November 2012
148
567
21 November 2012
148
562
23 November 2012
147
560
26 November 2012
147
558
27 November 2012
147
556
28 November 2012
148
556
29 November 2012
147
549
30 November 2012
147
546
3 December 2012
147
542
4 December 2012
147
539
5 December 2012
146
531
6 December 2012
147
529
7 December 2012
147
524
Note: A vertical line indicates the October 23-24, 2012 FOMC meeting.
Source: Barclays
Top-right panel
(8) Corporate Debt Issuance
$ Billions
Month
Investment Grade: 2012
Investment Grade: 2011
High Yield: 2012
High Yield: 2011
Jan
102.16
128.61
26.11
31.13
Feb
211.67
191.05
64.11
53.31
347.55
309.84
96.89
90.59
396.52
373.07
120.58
121.09
Mar [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
Loading
Apr
May
484.33
485.10
139.93
165.76
Jun
556.51
528.77
148.83
182.83
Jul
637.82
579.87
170.85
200.85
Aug
703.00
631.88
201.56
201.95
Sep
834.23
700.08
244.52
208.15
Oct
921.71
758.17
292.78
217.01
Nov
1058.64
846.59
324.83
240.43
Dec
ND
881.52
ND
243.85
Source: Bloomberg
Middle-left panel
(9) Japanese Equities and Exchange Rate
Date
Nikkei Equity Index
(Indexed to 08/01/11)
Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate
(¥/$)
1 August 2011
100.00
77.21
2 August 2011
98.79
77.15
3 August 2011
96.71
77.06
4 August 2011
96.93
78.89
5 August 2011
93.33
78.40
8 August 2011
91.30
77.77
9 August 2011
89.76
76.96
10 August 2011
90.70
76.86
11 August 2011
90.13
76.84
12 August 2011
89.95
76.71
15 August 2011
91.18
76.83
16 August 2011
91.39
76.80
17 August 2011
90.89
76.60
18 August 2011
89.75
76.58
19 August 2011
87.50
76.55
22 August 2011
86.58
76.79
23 August 2011
87.64
76.66
24 August 2011
86.70
76.98
25 August 2011
88.03
77.46
26 August 2011
88.29
76.64
29 August 2011
88.82
76.83
30 August 2011
89.85
76.74
31 August 2011
89.87
76.66
1 September 2011
90.93
76.93
2 September 2011
89.82
76.80
5 September 2011
88.15
76.89
6 September 2011
86.21
77.66
7 September 2011
87.94
77.26
8 September 2011
88.24
77.51
9 September 2011
87.68
77.61
12 September 2011
85.66
77.21
13 September 2011
86.47
76.96
14 September 2011
85.48
76.62
15 September 2011
86.99
76.70
16 September 2011
88.95
76.79
19 September 2011
88.95
76.58
20 September 2011
87.52
76.45
21 September 2011
87.72
76.46
22 September 2011
85.90
76.24
23 September 2011
85.90
76.61
26 September 2011
84.04
76.36
27 September 2011
86.40
76.81
28 September 2011
86.46
76.61
29 September 2011
87.32
76.83
30 September 2011
87.31
77.06
3 October 2011
85.75
76.63
4 October 2011
84.86
76.81
5 October 2011
84.12
76.79
6 October 2011
85.52
76.72
7 October 2011
86.36
76.73
10 October 2011
86.36
76.68
11 October 2011
88.04
76.65
12 October 2011
87.70
77.26
88.54
76.90
Loading
13 October
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
2011
14 October 2011
87.79
77.22
17 October 2011
89.11
76.83
18 October 2011
87.73
76.82
19 October 2011
88.03
76.81
20 October 2011
87.13
76.80
21 October 2011
87.09
76.29
24 October 2011
88.75
76.10
25 October 2011
87.93
76.09
26 October 2011
87.79
76.18
27 October 2011
89.58
75.95
28 October 2011
90.82
75.82
31 October 2011
90.20
78.17
1 November 2011
88.67
78.37
2 November 2011
86.71
78.05
3 November 2011
86.71
78.06
4 November 2011
88.32
78.24
7 November 2011
87.98
78.05
8 November 2011
86.86
77.73
9 November 2011
87.86
77.82
10 November 2011
85.31
77.65
11 November 2011
85.44
77.20
14 November 2011
86.34
77.07
15 November 2011
85.72
77.03
16 November 2011
84.93
77.06
17 November 2011
85.09
76.98
18 November 2011
84.04
76.91
21 November 2011
83.78
76.89
22 November 2011
83.44
76.97
23 November 2011
83.44
77.31
24 November 2011
81.94
77.12
25 November 2011
81.89
77.73
28 November 2011
83.17
77.98
29 November 2011
85.08
77.93
30 November 2011
84.64
77.62
1 December 2011
86.28
77.70
2 December 2011
86.74
77.99
5 December 2011
87.27
77.82
6 December 2011
86.05
77.73
7 December 2011
87.53
77.68
8 December 2011
86.95
77.64
9 December 2011
85.66
77.65
12 December 2011
86.84
77.94
13 December 2011
85.83
78.00
14 December 2011
85.49
78.07
15 December 2011
84.07
77.86
16 December 2011
84.31
77.76
19 December 2011
83.25
78.05
20 December 2011
83.66
77.89
21 December 2011
84.90
78.06
22 December 2011
84.25
78.17
23 December 2011
84.25
78.09
26 December 2011
85.09
77.98
27 December 2011
84.70
77.88
28 December 2011
84.53
77.94
29 December 2011
84.28
77.64
30 December 2011
84.85
76.91
2 January 2012
84.85
76.90
3 January 2012
84.85
76.74
4 January 2012
85.90
76.72
5 January 2012
85.19
77.12
6 January 2012
84.20
76.97
9 January 2012
84.20
76.86
10 January 2012
84.52
76.85
11 January 2012
84.78
76.85
12 January 2012
84.15
76.76
13 January 2012
85.30
76.97
16 January 2012
84.08
76.78
84.96
76.83
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
17 January
2012
18 January 2012
85.81
19 January 2012
86.70
77.11
20 January 2012
87.97
77.01
23 January 2012
87.97
77.02
24 January 2012
88.16
77.67
25 January 2012
89.15
77.78
26 January 2012
88.81
77.45
27 January 2012
88.72
76.70
30 January 2012
88.24
76.35
31 January 2012
88.33
76.27
1 February 2012
88.41
76.20
2 February 2012
89.08
76.22
3 February 2012
88.63
76.60
6 February 2012
89.61
76.55
7 February 2012
89.49
76.76
8 February 2012
90.47
77.04
9 February 2012
90.34
77.67
10 February 2012
89.79
77.61
13 February 2012
90.31
77.57
14 February 2012
90.84
78.44
15 February 2012
92.93
78.43
16 February 2012
92.71
78.94
17 February 2012
94.17
79.55
20 February 2012
95.18
79.63
21 February 2012
94.96
79.74
22 February 2012
95.88
80.29
23 February 2012
96.29
80.00
24 February 2012
96.81
81.20
27 February 2012
96.68
80.61
28 February 2012
97.57
80.46
29 February 2012
97.57
81.15
1 March 2012
97.41
81.12
2 March 2012
98.11
81.81
5 March 2012
97.33
81.56
6 March 2012
96.71
80.89
7 March 2012
96.10
81.09
8 March 2012
98.03
81.56
9 March 2012
99.65
82.46
12 March 2012
99.25
82.23
13 March 2012
99.34
82.94
14 March 2012
100.86
83.73
15 March 2012
101.59
83.57
16 March 2012
101.65
83.43
19 March 2012
101.78
83.35
20 March 2012
101.78
83.70
21 March 2012
101.22
83.41
22 March 2012
101.63
82.54
23 March 2012
100.47
82.35
26 March 2012
100.53
82.82
27 March 2012
102.91
83.17
28 March 2012
102.18
82.90
29 March 2012
101.50
82.46
30 March 2012
101.19
82.87
2 April 2012
101.45
82.08
3 April 2012
100.86
82.81
4 April 2012
98.54
82.46
5 April 2012
98.02
82.37
6 April 2012
97.22
81.64
9 April 2012
95.80
81.49
10 April 2012
95.72
80.67
11 April 2012
94.92
80.86
12 April 2012
95.58
80.89
13 April 2012
96.72
80.93
16 April 2012
95.04
80.41
17 April 2012
94.98
80.85
18 April 2012
97.01
81.26
19 April 2012
96.22
81.61
95.95
81.52
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
20 April
2012
76.82
23 April 2012
95.76
81.18
24 April 2012
95.01
81.32
25 April 2012
95.95
81.34
26 April 2012
95.95
80.99
27 April 2012
95.54
80.27
30 April 2012
95.54
79.82
1 May 2012
93.84
80.09
2 May 2012
94.13
80.14
3 May 2012
94.13
80.18
4 May 2012
94.13
79.85
7 May 2012
91.51
79.92
8 May 2012
92.14
79.87
9 May 2012
90.77
79.64
10 May 2012
90.41
79.93
11 May 2012
89.85
79.94
14 May 2012
90.05
79.85
15 May 2012
89.32
80.18
16 May 2012
88.32
80.33
17 May 2012
89.08
79.28
18 May 2012
86.42
79.02
21 May 2012
86.64
79.31
22 May 2012
87.60
79.96
23 May 2012
85.87
79.47
24 May 2012
85.93
79.60
25 May 2012
86.11
79.68
28 May 2012
86.23
79.47
29 May 2012
86.87
79.49
30 May 2012
86.64
79.07
31 May 2012
85.73
78.32
1 June 2012
84.70
78.02
4 June 2012
83.25
78.34
5 June 2012
84.11
78.75
6 June 2012
85.63
79.19
7 June 2012
86.70
79.63
8 June 2012
84.89
79.49
11 June 2012
86.55
79.44
12 June 2012
85.67
79.53
13 June 2012
86.18
79.48
14 June 2012
85.99
79.35
15 June 2012
85.99
78.73
18 June 2012
87.52
79.11
19 June 2012
86.86
78.95
20 June 2012
87.83
79.54
21 June 2012
88.55
80.28
22 June 2012
88.29
80.43
25 June 2012
87.65
79.66
26 June 2012
86.94
79.52
27 June 2012
87.61
79.72
28 June 2012
89.05
79.46
29 June 2012
90.38
79.79
2 July 2012
90.35
79.51
3 July 2012
90.98
79.79
4 July 2012
91.36
79.88
5 July 2012
91.12
79.92
6 July 2012
90.52
79.66
9 July 2012
89.28
79.56
10 July 2012
88.89
79.43
11 July 2012
88.82
79.76
12 July 2012
87.51
79.31
13 July 2012
87.55
79.18
16 July 2012
87.55
78.87
17 July 2012
87.86
79.06
18 July 2012
87.57
78.80
19 July 2012
88.26
78.59
20 July 2012
87.00
78.49
23 July 2012
85.38
78.40
24 July 2012
85.18
78.18
83.95
78.16
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
25 July
2012
26 July 2012
84.73
78.21
27 July 2012
85.97
78.46
30 July 2012
86.66
78.18
31 July 2012
87.26
78.12
1 August 2012
86.72
78.44
2 August 2012
86.84
78.24
3 August 2012
85.85
78.47
6 August 2012
87.57
78.25
7 August 2012
88.34
78.61
8 August 2012
89.12
78.43
9 August 2012
90.10
78.57
10 August 2012
89.23
78.28
13 August 2012
89.16
78.32
14 August 2012
89.61
78.74
15 August 2012
89.56
78.99
16 August 2012
91.25
79.35
17 August 2012
91.95
79.56
20 August 2012
92.03
79.43
21 August 2012
91.89
79.29
22 August 2012
91.64
78.58
23 August 2012
92.10
78.49
24 August 2012
91.03
78.67
27 August 2012
91.17
78.74
28 August 2012
90.65
78.51
29 August 2012
91.02
78.71
30 August 2012
90.15
78.63
31 August 2012
88.71
78.39
3 September 2012
88.15
78.26
4 September 2012
88.06
78.43
5 September 2012
87.10
78.39
6 September 2012
87.11
78.86
7 September 2012
89.03
78.24
10 September 2012
89.01
78.29
11 September 2012
88.38
77.77
12 September 2012
89.91
77.86
13 September 2012
90.27
77.49
14 September 2012
91.92
78.39
17 September 2012
91.92
78.71
18 September 2012
91.56
78.82
19 September 2012
92.65
78.38
20 September 2012
91.19
78.24
21 September 2012
91.42
78.17
24 September 2012
91.01
77.85
25 September 2012
91.23
77.80
26 September 2012
89.38
77.75
27 September 2012
89.81
77.61
28 September 2012
89.01
77.96
1 October 2012
88.27
77.99
2 October 2012
88.17
78.16
3 October 2012
87.78
78.49
4 October 2012
88.56
78.48
5 October 2012
88.94
78.67
8 October 2012
88.94
78.33
9 October 2012
88.00
78.26
10 October 2012
86.26
78.18
11 October 2012
85.77
78.34
12 October 2012
85.64
78.44
15 October 2012
86.08
78.65
16 October 2012
87.32
78.89
17 October 2012
88.37
78.93
18 October 2012
90.14
79.28
19 October 2012
90.34
79.32
22 October 2012
90.42
79.94
23 October 2012
90.46
79.85
24 October 2012
89.86
79.81
25 October 2012
90.87
80.30
26 October 2012
89.64
79.65
89.61
79.80
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
29 October
2012
30 October 2012
88.73
79.63
31 October 2012
89.60
79.77
1 November 2012
89.78
80.12
2 November 2012
90.83
80.43
5 November 2012
90.39
80.29
6 November 2012
90.07
80.35
7 November 2012
90.04
80.00
8 November 2012
88.68
79.47
9 November 2012
87.88
79.49
12 November 2012
87.07
79.50
13 November 2012
86.91
79.38
14 November 2012
86.95
80.25
15 November 2012
88.61
81.17
16 November 2012
90.56
81.32
19 November 2012
91.85
81.41
20 November 2012
91.75
81.68
21 November 2012
92.55
82.52
22 November 2012
94.00
82.48
23 November 2012
94.00
82.40
26 November 2012
94.22
82.08
27 November 2012
94.56
82.15
28 November 2012
93.41
82.08
29 November 2012
94.34
82.12
30 November 2012
94.79
82.48
3 December 2012
94.91
82.25
4 December 2012
94.66
81.90
5 December 2012
95.02
82.47
6 December 2012
95.79
82.40
7 December 2012
95.61
82.49
Note: A vertical line indicates Elections Announced on November 14, 2012.
Source: Bloomberg
Middle-right panel
(10) Euro Area Interest and Exchange Rates
Date
2-Year German Yield
(Percent)
Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate
($/€)
1 August 2011
1.096
1.4250
2 August 2011
1.066
1.4203
3 August 2011
1.046
1.4323
4 August 2011
0.842
1.4092
5 August 2011
0.765
1.4282
8 August 2011
0.723
1.4179
9 August 2011
0.776
1.4376
10 August 2011
0.571
1.4178
11 August 2011
0.659
1.4241
12 August 2011
0.690
1.4248
15 August 2011
0.713
1.4445
16 August 2011
0.738
1.4407
17 August 2011
0.702
1.4426
18 August 2011
0.593
1.4333
19 August 2011
0.649
1.4397
22 August 2011
0.629
1.4358
23 August 2011
0.666
1.4442
24 August 2011
0.715
1.4414
25 August 2011
0.648
1.4379
26 August 2011
0.653
1.4499
29 August 2011
0.742
1.4511
30 August 2011
0.658
1.4441
31 August 2011
0.720
1.4369
1 September 2011
0.645
1.4259
2 September 2011
0.522
1.4205
5 September 2011
0.428
1.4098
6 September 2011
0.437
1.3998
7 September 2011
0.488
1.4098
8 September 2011
0.438
1.3882
9 September 2011
0.390
1.3656
0.434
1.3679
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
12 September
2011
13 September 2011
0.502
1.3678
14 September 2011
0.562
1.3755
15 September 2011
0.602
1.3877
16 September 2011
0.510
1.3796
19 September 2011
0.464
1.3686
20 September 2011
0.464
1.3702
21 September 2011
0.442
1.3573
22 September 2011
0.401
1.3465
23 September 2011
0.393
1.3500
26 September 2011
0.451
1.3533
27 September 2011
0.533
1.3585
28 September 2011
0.594
1.3543
29 September 2011
0.599
1.3597
30 September 2011
0.550
1.3387
3 October 2011
0.495
1.3176
4 October 2011
0.458
1.3349
5 October 2011
0.496
1.3348
6 October 2011
0.611
1.3437
7 October 2011
0.603
1.3378
10 October 2011
0.650
1.3642
11 October 2011
0.650
1.3640
12 October 2011
0.705
1.3791
13 October 2011
0.623
1.3777
14 October 2011
0.662
1.3882
17 October 2011
0.580
1.3737
18 October 2011
0.582
1.3752
19 October 2011
0.619
1.3760
20 October 2011
0.589
1.3780
21 October 2011
0.661
1.3896
24 October 2011
0.658
1.3929
25 October 2011
0.564
1.3908
26 October 2011
0.518
1.3906
27 October 2011
0.658
1.4189
28 October 2011
0.604
1.4147
31 October 2011
0.539
1.3858
1 November 2011
0.411
1.3703
2 November 2011
0.423
1.3747
3 November 2011
0.404
1.3823
4 November 2011
0.404
1.3792
7 November 2011
0.376
1.3776
8 November 2011
0.397
1.3834
9 November 2011
0.355
1.3542
10 November 2011
0.376
1.3606
11 November 2011
0.403
1.3750
14 November 2011
0.309
1.3633
15 November 2011
0.306
1.3539
16 November 2011
0.401
1.3463
17 November 2011
0.446
1.3458
18 November 2011
0.468
1.3525
21 November 2011
0.409
1.3489
22 November 2011
0.387
1.3505
23 November 2011
0.445
1.3342
24 November 2011
0.472
1.3347
25 November 2011
0.463
1.3239
28 November 2011
0.448
1.3320
29 November 2011
0.436
1.3317
30 November 2011
0.337
1.3446
1 December 2011
0.302
1.3461
2 December 2011
0.305
1.3391
5 December 2011
0.342
1.3401
6 December 2011
0.342
1.3402
7 December 2011
0.313
1.3412
8 December 2011
0.290
1.3341
9 December 2011
0.320
1.3386
12 December 2011
0.252
1.3187
13 December 2011
0.275
1.3037
14 December 2011
0.275
1.2983
0.255
1.3016
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
15 December
2011
16 December 2011
0.220
1.3046
19 December 2011
0.209
1.2998
20 December 2011
0.212
1.3082
21 December 2011
0.232
1.3047
22 December 2011
0.227
1.3050
23 December 2011
0.227
1.3044
26 December 2011
0.227
1.3061
27 December 2011
0.168
1.3071
28 December 2011
0.170
1.2941
29 December 2011
0.160
1.2961
30 December 2011
0.144
1.2961
2 January 2012
0.203
1.2934
3 January 2012
0.188
1.3050
4 January 2012
0.180
1.2943
5 January 2012
0.174
1.2789
6 January 2012
0.166
1.2717
9 January 2012
0.143
1.2765
10 January 2012
0.171
1.2778
11 January 2012
0.140
1.2707
12 January 2012
0.163
1.2814
13 January 2012
0.152
1.2680
16 January 2012
0.152
1.2667
17 January 2012
0.184
1.2736
18 January 2012
0.202
1.2863
19 January 2012
0.213
1.2968
20 January 2012
0.207
1.2931
23 January 2012
0.199
1.3013
24 January 2012
0.221
1.3036
25 January 2012
0.194
1.3106
26 January 2012
0.177
1.3109
27 January 2012
0.191
1.3220
30 January 2012
0.175
1.3144
31 January 2012
0.158
1.3084
1 February 2012
0.180
1.3161
2 February 2012
0.207
1.3144
3 February 2012
0.204
1.3158
6 February 2012
0.179
1.3130
7 February 2012
0.223
1.3261
8 February 2012
0.250
1.3260
9 February 2012
0.269
1.3286
10 February 2012
0.239
1.3197
13 February 2012
0.255
1.3186
14 February 2012
0.242
1.3134
15 February 2012
0.214
1.3066
16 February 2012
0.244
1.3130
17 February 2012
0.253
1.3140
20 February 2012
0.258
1.3243
21 February 2012
0.261
1.3234
22 February 2012
0.265
1.3249
23 February 2012
0.260
1.3373
24 February 2012
0.243
1.3448
27 February 2012
0.203
1.3398
28 February 2012
0.201
1.3458
29 February 2012
0.191
1.3325
1 March 2012
0.215
1.3311
2 March 2012
0.161
1.3198
5 March 2012
0.185
1.3217
6 March 2012
0.170
1.3112
7 March 2012
0.153
1.3149
8 March 2012
0.160
1.3275
9 March 2012
0.160
1.3123
12 March 2012
0.155
1.3155
13 March 2012
0.180
1.3084
14 March 2012
0.247
1.3032
15 March 2012
0.280
1.3080
16 March 2012
0.334
1.3175
19 March 2012
0.339
1.3238
0.334
1.3225
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
20 March
2012
21 March 2012
0.291
1.3216
22 March 2012
0.260
1.3201
23 March 2012
0.232
1.3270
26 March 2012
0.263
1.3359
27 March 2012
0.240
1.3313
28 March 2012
0.211
1.3317
29 March 2012
0.209
1.3302
30 March 2012
0.206
1.3343
2 April 2012
0.211
1.3321
3 April 2012
0.203
1.3233
4 April 2012
0.187
1.3142
5 April 2012
0.140
1.3066
6 April 2012
0.140
1.3096
9 April 2012
0.140
1.3106
10 April 2012
0.093
1.3082
11 April 2012
0.140
1.3110
12 April 2012
0.137
1.3188
13 April 2012
0.126
1.3078
16 April 2012
0.137
1.3142
17 April 2012
0.147
1.3127
18 April 2012
0.139
1.3123
19 April 2012
0.128
1.3138
20 April 2012
0.138
1.3219
23 April 2012
0.106
1.3156
24 April 2012
0.130
1.3197
25 April 2012
0.124
1.3217
26 April 2012
0.094
1.3219
27 April 2012
0.102
1.3255
30 April 2012
0.080
1.3239
1 May 2012
0.080
1.3237
2 May 2012
0.080
1.3158
3 May 2012
0.088
1.3152
4 May 2012
0.082
1.3084
7 May 2012
0.101
1.3051
8 May 2012
0.090
1.3005
9 May 2012
0.070
1.2929
10 May 2012
0.075
1.2936
11 May 2012
0.091
1.2917
14 May 2012
0.063
1.2823
15 May 2012
0.071
1.2729
16 May 2012
0.071
1.2716
17 May 2012
0.043
1.2698
18 May 2012
0.051
1.2780
21 May 2012
0.048
1.2818
22 May 2012
0.061
1.2684
23 May 2012
0.054
1.2582
24 May 2012
0.066
1.2532
25 May 2012
0.047
1.2517
28 May 2012
0.029
1.2541
29 May 2012
0.042
1.2503
30 May 2012
0.010
1.2367
31 May 2012
0.002
1.2365
1 June 2012
0.012
1.2434
4 June 2012
0.012
1.2499
5 June 2012
0.010
1.2452
6 June 2012
0.070
1.2582
7 June 2012
0.075
1.2561
8 June 2012
0.043
1.2517
11 June 2012
0.058
1.2482
12 June 2012
0.095
1.2503
13 June 2012
0.126
1.2557
14 June 2012
0.083
1.2633
15 June 2012
0.068
1.2638
18 June 2012
0.025
1.2576
19 June 2012
0.086
1.2685
20 June 2012
0.150
1.2707
21 June 2012
0.105
1.2540
0.135
1.2570
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
22 June
2012
25 June 2012
0.074
1.2504
26 June 2012
0.100
1.2491
27 June 2012
0.126
1.2468
28 June 2012
0.106
1.2444
29 June 2012
0.124
1.2667
2 July 2012
0.098
1.2576
3 July 2012
0.090
1.2608
4 July 2012
0.073
1.2527
5 July 2012
0.016
1.2392
6 July 2012
-0.010
1.2291
9 July 2012
-0.003
1.2313
10 July 2012
0.003
1.2250
11 July 2012
-0.016
1.2239
12 July 2012
-0.034
1.2203
13 July 2012
-0.042
1.2249
16 July 2012
-0.055
1.2273
17 July 2012
-0.047
1.2294
18 July 2012
-0.061
1.2284
19 July 2012
-0.053
1.2281
20 July 2012
-0.074
1.2157
23 July 2012
-0.064
1.2117
24 July 2012
-0.069
1.2061
25 July 2012
-0.061
1.2158
26 July 2012
-0.051
1.2283
27 July 2012
-0.029
1.2322
30 July 2012
-0.080
1.2260
31 July 2012
-0.091
1.2304
1 August 2012
-0.076
1.2225
2 August 2012
-0.089
1.2180
3 August 2012
-0.022
1.2387
6 August 2012
-0.060
1.2401
7 August 2012
-0.030
1.2399
8 August 2012
-0.052
1.2365
9 August 2012
-0.057
1.2306
10 August 2012
-0.074
1.2289
13 August 2012
-0.047
1.2332
14 August 2012
-0.036
1.2322
15 August 2012
-0.022
1.2290
16 August 2012
-0.036
1.2356
17 August 2012
-0.041
1.2334
20 August 2012
-0.022
1.2346
21 August 2012
0.006
1.2473
22 August 2012
0.007
1.2529
23 August 2012
-0.012
1.2564
24 August 2012
-0.012
1.2512
27 August 2012
0.000
1.2499
28 August 2012
-0.012
1.2565
29 August 2012
0.000
1.2530
30 August 2012
-0.037
1.2506
31 August 2012
-0.035
1.2579
3 September 2012
-0.037
1.2593
4 September 2012
-0.032
1.2566
5 September 2012
-0.015
1.2601
6 September 2012
0.035
1.2631
7 September 2012
0.033
1.2816
10 September 2012
0.040
1.2758
11 September 2012
0.045
1.2855
12 September 2012
0.078
1.2900
13 September 2012
0.061
1.2991
14 September 2012
0.104
1.3130
17 September 2012
0.084
1.3117
18 September 2012
0.076
1.3048
19 September 2012
0.069
1.3049
20 September 2012
0.043
1.2968
21 September 2012
0.036
1.2980
24 September 2012
0.041
1.2931
25 September 2012
0.069
1.2899
0.039
1.2873
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
26 September
2012
27 September 2012
0.041
1.2913
28 September 2012
0.021
1.2860
1 October 2012
0.046
1.2888
2 October 2012
0.041
1.2920
3 October 2012
0.031
1.2905
4 October 2012
0.042
1.3018
5 October 2012
0.057
1.3045
8 October 2012
0.044
1.2968
9 October 2012
0.039
1.2885
10 October 2012
0.047
1.2875
11 October 2012
0.050
1.2928
12 October 2012
0.042
1.2951
15 October 2012
0.053
1.2949
16 October 2012
0.082
1.3054
17 October 2012
0.098
1.3119
18 October 2012
0.111
1.3067
19 October 2012
0.112
1.3024
22 October 2012
0.122
1.3060
23 October 2012
0.107
1.2987
24 October 2012
0.080
1.2974
25 October 2012
0.083
1.2934
26 October 2012
0.051
1.2938
29 October 2012
0.030
1.2904
30 October 2012
0.040
1.2959
31 October 2012
0.038
1.2960
1 November 2012
0.019
1.2943
2 November 2012
0.005
1.2835
5 November 2012
-0.008
1.2796
6 November 2012
-0.005
1.2814
7 November 2012
-0.038
1.2771
8 November 2012
-0.033
1.2747
9 November 2012
-0.033
1.2714
12 November 2012
-0.036
1.2710
13 November 2012
-0.033
1.2704
14 November 2012
-0.022
1.2736
15 November 2012
-0.029
1.2781
16 November 2012
-0.034
1.2743
19 November 2012
-0.022
1.2814
20 November 2012
0.000
1.2817
21 November 2012
0.010
1.2829
22 November 2012
0.002
1.2884
23 November 2012
-0.002
1.2976
26 November 2012
0.000
1.2972
27 November 2012
0.020
1.2943
28 November 2012
-0.012
1.2953
29 November 2012
0.002
1.2979
30 November 2012
0.010
1.2986
3 December 2012
0.025
1.3054
4 December 2012
0.015
1.3094
5 December 2012
0.002
1.3068
6 December 2012
-0.047
1.2970
7 December 2012
-0.077
1.2927
Note: Vertical lines indicate the Draghi Speech on July 26, 2012, and the October 23-24, 2012 FOMC meeting.
Source: Bloomberg
Bottom-left panel
(11) Treasury Bill Rates Around Year-End
Percent
Weeks to Maturity
2012
2011
2010
2009
11.86
0.0725
-0.0025
0.128
0.020
10.86
0.0675
-0.0025
0.125
0.029
9.86
0.0625
-0.0025
0.120
0.015
8.86
0.0625
-0.0025
0.115
0.015
7.86
0.0475
-0.0025
0.120
0.015
6.86
0.0475
-0.0075
0.103
0.009
0.0525
-0.0075
0.093
0.015
0.0475
-0.0025
0.090
0.011
5.86 [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
Loading
4.86
3.86
0.0525
-0.0075
0.080
0.014
2.86
0.1275
0.0025
0.113
0.076
1.86
0.1175
0.0050
0.103
0.068
0.86
0.1325
0.0025
0.090
0.050
Note: A vertical line indicates year-end at 3.43 weeks to maturity.
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Bottom-right panel
(12) Overnight Funding Rates
Percent
Date
MBS GCF Repo
Treasury GCF Repo
Federal Funds Effective
1 August 2011
0.394
0.277
0.17
2 August 2011
0.306
0.228
0.16
3 August 2011
0.141
0.096
0.12
4 August 2011
0.092
0.065
0.09
5 August 2011
0.050
0.043
0.08
8 August 2011
0.128
0.066
0.11
9 August 2011
0.074
0.033
0.10
10 August 2011
0.061
0.038
0.10
11 August 2011
0.120
0.071
0.09
12 August 2011
0.169
0.113
0.10
15 August 2011
0.183
0.103
0.10
16 August 2011
0.086
0.048
0.09
17 August 2011
0.082
0.040
0.09
18 August 2011
0.081
0.059
0.09
19 August 2011
0.103
0.055
0.09
22 August 2011
0.065
0.039
0.09
23 August 2011
0.038
0.018
0.08
24 August 2011
0.035
0.020
0.08
25 August 2011
0.063
0.046
0.08
26 August 2011
0.085
0.048
0.09
29 August 2011
0.084
0.057
0.09
30 August 2011
0.056
0.039
0.08
31 August 2011
0.130
0.097
0.08
1 September 2011
0.127
0.106
0.08
2 September 2011
0.121
0.095
0.08
6 September 2011
0.148
0.114
0.09
7 September 2011
0.111
0.083
0.09
8 September 2011
0.100
0.078
0.09
9 September 2011
0.087
0.062
0.09
12 September 2011
0.095
0.065
0.09
13 September 2011
0.143
0.081
0.09
14 September 2011
0.141
0.082
0.08
15 September 2011
0.206
0.138
0.09
16 September 2011
0.185
0.110
0.09
19 September 2011
0.144
0.107
0.09
20 September 2011
0.165
0.129
0.09
21 September 2011
0.134
0.104
0.08
22 September 2011
0.114
0.096
0.08
23 September 2011
0.155
0.117
0.08
26 September 2011
0.191
0.139
0.08
27 September 2011
0.131
0.096
0.08
28 September 2011
0.090
0.063
0.08
29 September 2011
0.065
0.034
0.08
30 September 2011
0.226
0.120
0.06
3 October 2011
0.163
0.114
0.08
4 October 2011
0.115
0.081
0.07
5 October 2011
0.103
0.079
0.07
6 October 2011
0.105
0.087
0.07
7 October 2011
0.103
0.083
0.07
11 October 2011
0.095
0.077
0.07
12 October 2011
0.084
0.066
0.07
13 October 2011
0.146
0.103
0.07
14 October 2011
0.169
0.129
0.07
17 October 2011
0.229
0.171
0.07
18 October 2011
0.169
0.121
0.07
0.094
0.068
0.07
0.084
0.063
0.07
19 October
2011
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
20 October 2011
21 October 2011
0.070
0.063
0.07
24 October 2011
0.108
0.071
0.07
25 October 2011
0.122
0.094
0.07
26 October 2011
0.095
0.063
0.08
27 October 2011
0.095
0.066
0.07
28 October 2011
0.086
0.062
0.07
31 October 2011
0.175
0.138
0.09
1 November 2011
0.160
0.134
0.08
2 November 2011
0.183
0.140
0.08
3 November 2011
0.148
0.102
0.09
4 November 2011
0.091
0.063
0.08
7 November 2011
0.091
0.071
0.08
8 November 2011
0.089
0.078
0.08
9 November 2011
0.094
0.086
0.08
10 November 2011
0.119
0.099
0.08
14 November 2011
0.153
0.135
0.08
15 November 2011
0.211
0.169
0.09
16 November 2011
0.149
0.112
0.08
17 November 2011
0.124
0.101
0.08
18 November 2011
0.141
0.114
0.08
21 November 2011
0.151
0.113
0.08
22 November 2011
0.186
0.133
0.08
23 November 2011
0.190
0.130
0.09
25 November 2011
0.245
0.156
0.07
28 November 2011
0.209
0.125
0.08
29 November 2011
0.143
0.084
0.08
30 November 2011
0.181
0.130
0.10
1 December 2011
0.154
0.103
0.08
2 December 2011
0.148
0.093
0.08
5 December 2011
0.141
0.092
0.08
6 December 2011
0.140
0.085
0.08
7 December 2011
0.108
0.065
0.08
8 December 2011
0.095
0.076
0.07
9 December 2011
0.105
0.086
0.07
12 December 2011
0.138
0.093
0.07
13 December 2011
0.131
0.083
0.07
14 December 2011
0.117
0.066
0.07
15 December 2011
0.158
0.143
0.07
16 December 2011
0.155
0.128
0.07
19 December 2011
0.120
0.096
0.07
20 December 2011
0.103
0.096
0.07
21 December 2011
0.074
0.038
0.07
22 December 2011
0.060
0.036
0.07
23 December 2011
0.115
0.082
0.08
27 December 2011
0.117
0.076
0.07
28 December 2011
0.071
0.052
0.07
29 December 2011
0.095
0.098
0.07
30 December 2011
0.103
-0.001
0.04
3 January 2012
0.159
0.127
0.07
4 January 2012
0.087
0.065
0.07
5 January 2012
0.082
0.068
0.07
6 January 2012
0.099
0.083
0.07
9 January 2012
0.091
0.081
0.08
10 January 2012
0.080
0.071
0.08
11 January 2012
0.082
0.082
0.08
12 January 2012
0.176
0.130
0.08
13 January 2012
0.211
0.173
0.09
17 January 2012
0.282
0.218
0.09
18 January 2012
0.229
0.186
0.09
19 January 2012
0.224
0.190
0.10
20 January 2012
0.225
0.188
0.09
23 January 2012
0.177
0.147
0.09
24 January 2012
0.152
0.127
0.09
25 January 2012
0.156
0.117
0.08
26 January 2012
0.148
0.117
0.08
27 January 2012
0.149
0.116
0.09
30 January 2012
0.154
0.131
0.09
31 January 2012
0.292
0.241
0.11
0.229
0.200
0.11
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
1 February
2012
2 February 2012
0.209
0.183
0.11
3 February 2012
0.197
0.162
0.11
6 February 2012
0.153
0.132
0.11
7 February 2012
0.141
0.116
0.11
8 February 2012
0.136
0.108
0.11
9 February 2012
0.172
0.164
0.11
10 February 2012
0.213
0.182
0.12
13 February 2012
0.222
0.169
0.12
14 February 2012
0.167
0.139
0.12
15 February 2012
0.214
0.162
0.12
16 February 2012
0.160
0.131
0.11
17 February 2012
0.136
0.102
0.09
21 February 2012
0.106
0.084
0.10
22 February 2012
0.095
0.084
0.08
23 February 2012
0.145
0.131
0.08
24 February 2012
0.181
0.158
0.09
27 February 2012
0.206
0.171
0.10
28 February 2012
0.166
0.131
0.10
29 February 2012
0.244
0.191
0.10
1 March 2012
0.232
0.200
0.11
2 March 2012
0.217
0.191
0.11
5 March 2012
0.205
0.186
0.11
6 March 2012
0.204
0.180
0.11
7 March 2012
0.186
0.163
0.11
8 March 2012
0.209
0.204
0.11
9 March 2012
0.224
0.200
0.12
12 March 2012
0.225
0.200
0.12
13 March 2012
0.209
0.187
0.12
14 March 2012
0.206
0.186
0.13
15 March 2012
0.279
0.258
0.14
16 March 2012
0.258
0.228
0.15
19 March 2012
0.222
0.205
0.15
20 March 2012
0.220
0.188
0.15
21 March 2012
0.193
0.155
0.15
22 March 2012
0.171
0.152
0.14
23 March 2012
0.235
0.192
0.14
26 March 2012
0.260
0.214
0.14
27 March 2012
0.224
0.177
0.14
28 March 2012
0.210
0.160
0.13
29 March 2012
0.244
0.157
0.13
30 March 2012
0.289
0.128
0.09
2 April 2012
0.272
0.224
0.15
3 April 2012
0.242
0.209
0.15
4 April 2012
0.272
0.227
0.15
5 April 2012
0.287
0.259
0.15
9 April 2012
0.274
0.231
0.16
10 April 2012
0.243
0.207
0.15
11 April 2012
0.221
0.193
0.16
12 April 2012
0.264
0.212
0.15
13 April 2012
0.226
0.191
0.15
16 April 2012
0.266
0.226
0.15
17 April 2012
0.222
0.188
0.16
18 April 2012
0.186
0.167
0.15
19 April 2012
0.144
0.127
0.13
20 April 2012
0.131
0.117
0.12
23 April 2012
0.136
0.118
0.13
24 April 2012
0.172
0.179
0.14
25 April 2012
0.231
0.188
0.15
26 April 2012
0.180
0.157
0.14
27 April 2012
0.176
0.149
0.13
30 April 2012
0.259
0.238
0.16
1 May 2012
0.238
0.210
0.16
2 May 2012
0.197
0.182
0.15
3 May 2012
0.204
0.196
0.15
4 May 2012
0.218
0.200
0.16
7 May 2012
0.207
0.197
0.16
8 May 2012
0.208
0.190
0.16
9 May 2012
0.196
0.183
0.15
0.207
0.198
0.15
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
10 May
2012
11 May 2012
0.211
0.200
0.15
14 May 2012
0.259
0.242
0.16
15 May 2012
0.266
0.253
0.16
16 May 2012
0.227
0.223
0.16
17 May 2012
0.242
0.233
0.16
18 May 2012
0.227
0.209
0.16
21 May 2012
0.228
0.202
0.16
22 May 2012
0.211
0.184
0.16
23 May 2012
0.167
0.149
0.15
24 May 2012
0.228
0.193
0.15
25 May 2012
0.235
0.206
0.15
29 May 2012
0.209
0.179
0.16
30 May 2012
0.196
0.174
0.16
31 May 2012
0.266
0.274
0.16
1 June 2012
0.264
0.244
0.16
4 June 2012
0.255
0.235
0.17
5 June 2012
0.240
0.217
0.17
6 June 2012
0.206
0.185
0.16
7 June 2012
0.202
0.191
0.16
8 June 2012
0.224
0.214
0.17
11 June 2012
0.229
0.218
0.17
12 June 2012
0.262
0.239
0.16
13 June 2012
0.281
0.261
0.17
14 June 2012
0.279
0.260
0.17
15 June 2012
0.306
0.275
0.18
18 June 2012
0.242
0.223
0.17
19 June 2012
0.200
0.173
0.17
20 June 2012
0.182
0.168
0.16
21 June 2012
0.213
0.203
0.17
22 June 2012
0.303
0.256
0.17
25 June 2012
0.270
0.226
0.17
26 June 2012
0.201
0.177
0.16
27 June 2012
0.226
0.187
0.15
28 June 2012
0.234
0.220
0.15
29 June 2012
0.385
0.278
0.09
2 July 2012
0.343
0.297
0.18
3 July 2012
0.285
0.261
0.17
5 July 2012
0.276
0.250
0.17
6 July 2012
0.268
0.224
0.17
9 July 2012
0.214
0.185
0.17
10 July 2012
0.210
0.194
0.17
11 July 2012
0.219
0.199
0.17
12 July 2012
0.251
0.226
0.18
13 July 2012
0.235
0.207
0.19
16 July 2012
0.258
0.237
0.18
17 July 2012
0.226
0.204
0.17
18 July 2012
0.163
0.143
0.16
19 July 2012
0.134
0.120
0.13
20 July 2012
0.161
0.146
0.13
23 July 2012
0.160
0.140
0.14
24 July 2012
0.227
0.208
0.15
25 July 2012
0.235
0.205
0.15
26 July 2012
0.202
0.182
0.14
27 July 2012
0.197
0.172
0.14
30 July 2012
0.182
0.157
0.14
31 July 2012
0.236
0.238
0.13
1 August 2012
0.224
0.211
0.14
2 August 2012
0.231
0.225
0.14
3 August 2012
0.220
0.208
0.14
6 August 2012
0.205
0.190
0.14
7 August 2012
0.194
0.187
0.13
8 August 2012
0.222
0.209
0.13
9 August 2012
0.232
0.224
0.13
10 August 2012
0.212
0.192
0.13
13 August 2012
0.210
0.171
0.13
14 August 2012
0.186
0.170
0.13
15 August 2012
0.244
0.218
0.13
16 August 2012
0.210
0.199
0.13
0.195
0.175
0.13
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
17 August
2012
20 August 2012
0.187
0.169
0.13
21 August 2012
0.180
0.162
0.13
22 August 2012
0.184
0.165
0.13
23 August 2012
0.223
0.204
0.13
24 August 2012
0.237
0.213
0.13
27 August 2012
0.222
0.192
0.13
28 August 2012
0.192
0.162
0.13
29 August 2012
0.178
0.151
0.13
30 August 2012
0.225
0.190
0.14
31 August 2012
0.261
0.263
0.13
4 September 2012
0.261
0.250
0.14
5 September 2012
0.255
0.246
0.16
6 September 2012
0.282
0.270
0.16
7 September 2012
0.271
0.257
0.15
10 September 2012
0.257
0.254
0.15
11 September 2012
0.275
0.263
0.15
12 September 2012
0.278
0.261
0.15
13 September 2012
0.304
0.289
0.15
14 September 2012
0.316
0.304
0.16
17 September 2012
0.274
0.263
0.16
18 September 2012
0.267
0.250
0.16
19 September 2012
0.263
0.249
0.15
20 September 2012
0.263
0.250
0.16
21 September 2012
0.270
0.249
0.15
24 September 2012
0.297
0.260
0.16
25 September 2012
0.348
0.264
0.15
26 September 2012
0.304
0.247
0.15
27 September 2012
0.296
0.236
0.14
28 September 2012
0.483
0.338
0.09
1 October 2012
0.376
0.306
0.15
2 October 2012
0.336
0.300
0.16
3 October 2012
0.316
0.280
0.16
4 October 2012
0.295
0.281
0.15
5 October 2012
0.290
0.277
0.15
9 October 2012
0.282
0.264
0.16
10 October 2012
0.284
0.262
0.16
11 October 2012
0.308
0.278
0.16
12 October 2012
0.318
0.276
0.16
15 October 2012
0.348
0.297
0.16
16 October 2012
0.330
0.273
0.16
17 October 2012
0.291
0.262
0.15
18 October 2012
0.294
0.263
0.15
19 October 2012
0.271
0.239
0.16
22 October 2012
0.228
0.208
0.15
23 October 2012
0.206
0.192
0.15
24 October 2012
0.278
0.237
0.17
25 October 2012
0.325
0.261
0.16
26 October 2012
0.267
0.221
0.16
29 October 2012
0.647
0.526
0.17
31 October 2012
0.600
0.400
0.18
1 November 2012
0.423
0.301
0.17
2 November 2012
0.329
0.250
0.16
5 November 2012
0.275
0.226
0.17
6 November 2012
0.255
0.209
0.16
7 November 2012
0.229
0.195
0.16
8 November 2012
0.280
0.247
0.16
9 November 2012
0.284
0.249
0.16
13 November 2012
0.275
0.246
0.16
14 November 2012
0.294
0.252
0.16
15 November 2012
0.289
0.260
0.16
16 November 2012
0.238
0.224
0.16
19 November 2012
0.205
0.194
0.16
20 November 2012
0.223
0.208
0.16
21 November 2012
0.258
0.229
0.16
23 November 2012
0.309
0.288
0.16
26 November 2012
0.293
0.247
0.16
27 November 2012
0.230
0.209
0.16
28 November 2012
0.225
0.191
0.16
0.236
0.212
0.16
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29 November
2012
30 November 2012
0.316
0.275
0.16
3 December 2012
0.287
0.257
0.16
4 December 2012
0.285
0.264
0.17
5 December 2012
0.287
0.266
0.16
6 December 2012
0.312
0.281
0.16
7 December 2012
0.300
0.260
0.16
Note: A vertical line indicates Hurricane Sandy, October 29, 2012.
Source: DTCC, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Exhibit 3
Top-left panel
(13) SOMA Treasury Holdings as Percent of Outstanding
Percent
Years to Maturity
06/30/07 (Pre-Crisis)
09/30/11 (Pre-MEP)
Current
0-3
22.88
11.26
0.51
3-6
15.30
24.95
27.53
6-8
8.87
37.88
37.00
8-10
11.07
15.98
35.68
10-30
15.58
19.89
35.96
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Top-right panel
(14) MBS Purchase Settlements*
$ Billions
LSAP 1 Avg**
75.99
November 2011
3.55
December 2011
40.00
January 2012
19.70
February 2012
27.00
March 2012
22.00
April 2012
38.30
May 2012
27.75
June 2012
26.80
July 2012
23.35
August 2012
18.65
September 2012
23.60
October 2012
45.65
November 2012
63.80
December 2012
73.63
January 2013
60.68, and a dashed outline indicates 23.88 to be purchased
* Settlements net of realized dollar roll sales. Return to text
** Maximum settled monthly amount during LSAP 1 was $170 billion. Return to table
Note: Vertical lines indicate reinvestments, beginning in November 2011, and projected settlements, beginning in December 2012.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, TradeWeb
Middle-left panel
(15) Dollar Roll Implied Financing Rates*
Basis points
Date
Front Month
Next Month
1 June 2012
-50.03
-65.56
4 June 2012
-67.21
-76.56
5 June 2012
-66.25
-75.65
6 June 2012
-23.26
-49.39
7 June 2012
4.42
-50.22
8 June 2012
-37.25
-76.68
11 June 2012
-34.00
-77.60
12 June 2012
-32.57
-76.53
13 June 2012
-29.50
-37.60
14 June 2012
-21.09
-28.89
15 June 2012
-25.91
-33.94
18 June 2012
-22.12
-34.37
-30.72
-39.03
-29.76
-37.80
19 June
2012
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20 June 2012
21 June 2012
-30.39
-38.54
22 June 2012
-29.48
-37.56
25 June 2012
-30.93
-39.43
26 June 2012
-30.19
-38.56
27 June 2012
-26.44
-39.03
28 June 2012
-14.52
-26.82
29 June 2012
-13.18
-25.21
2 July 2012
-15.02
-27.28
3 July 2012
-5.53
-22.02
5 July 2012
2.34
-22.61
6 July 2012
0.56
-11.32
9 July 2012
-3.55
-36.12
10 July 2012
-13.14
-37.53
11 July 2012
-17.53
-27.87
12 July 2012
-18.02
-28.43
13 July 2012
-21.18
-26.55
16 July 2012
-22.62
-33.56
17 July 2012
-21.81
-32.48
18 July 2012
-22.79
-34.89
19 July 2012
-22.36
-34.27
20 July 2012
-23.54
-37.12
23 July 2012
-29.50
-40.04
24 July 2012
-38.60
-51.54
25 July 2012
-38.37
-55.53
26 July 2012
-37.96
-58.88
27 July 2012
-43.98
-62.13
30 July 2012
-41.06
-65.23
31 July 2012
-41.62
-66.44
1 August 2012
-45.18
-64.52
2 August 2012
-45.68
-66.00
3 August 2012
-52.87
-71.99
6 August 2012
-44.54
-67.73
7 August 2012
-8.34
-51.33
8 August 2012
-46.88
12.52
9 August 2012
-51.51
12.75
10 August 2012
-52.26
-48.16
13 August 2012
-47.50
-44.45
14 August 2012
-45.27
-42.07
15 August 2012
-46.64
-38.60
16 August 2012
-45.69
-41.58
17 August 2012
-46.45
-42.33
20 August 2012
-47.26
-39.26
21 August 2012
-52.14
-39.08
22 August 2012
-53.85
-40.19
23 August 2012
-57.56
-45.59
24 August 2012
-56.32
-43.68
27 August 2012
-52.65
-41.54
28 August 2012
-48.25
-41.44
29 August 2012
-37.26
-39.80
30 August 2012
-33.56
-37.08
31 August 2012
-23.79
-33.01
4 September 2012
-18.51
-32.67
5 September 2012
-8.70
-28.57
6 September 2012
2.92
-22.43
7 September 2012
0.87
-24.98
10 September 2012
-24.32
-114.46
11 September 2012
-20.23
-114.34
12 September 2012
-23.25
-45.05
13 September 2012
-44.66
-84.12
14 September 2012
-32.07
-86.40
17 September 2012
-19.61
-80.93
18 September 2012
-12.07
-62.62
19 September 2012
-17.52
-56.16
20 September 2012
-18.54
-72.81
21 September 2012
-98.58
-169.05
24 September 2012
-99.21
-184.94
25 September 2012
-25.83
-94.58
26 September 2012
-22.86
-98.22
-13.59
-73.00
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27 September
2012
28 September 2012
-13.24
-65.40
1 October 2012
-5.86
-61.74
2 October 2012
-6.62
-64.85
3 October 2012
-2.13
-67.92
4 October 2012
3.44
-62.31
5 October 2012
-60.54
-74.49
9 October 2012
-50.58
-74.50
10 October 2012
-53.61
-62.47
11 October 2012
-55.11
-52.78
12 October 2012
-54.94
-57.07
15 October 2012
-49.29
-51.60
16 October 2012
-46.27
-46.60
17 October 2012
-41.49
-39.27
18 October 2012
-34.99
-36.63
19 October 2012
-28.87
-37.25
22 October 2012
-22.92
-36.21
23 October 2012
-19.67
-33.58
24 October 2012
-23.30
-36.19
25 October 2012
-21.29
-28.42
26 October 2012
-19.67
-29.22
29 October 2012
-20.88
-30.72
31 October 2012
-22.03
-32.70
1 November 2012
-10.50
-22.41
2 November 2012
-11.40
-20.09
5 November 2012
-3.36
-18.93
6 November 2012
-0.28
-13.29
7 November 2012
0.33
-16.51
8 November 2012
-10.15
-18.48
9 November 2012
-18.08
-65.40
13 November 2012
-12.74
-44.49
14 November 2012
-10.08
-38.44
15 November 2012
-11.46
-36.89
16 November 2012
-9.26
-41.16
19 November 2012
-7.74
-37.82
20 November 2012
-6.25
-34.60
21 November 2012
-4.58
-31.27
23 November 2012
-4.42
-30.65
26 November 2012
-2.79
-26.15
27 November 2012
-4.99
-31.30
28 November 2012
-1.13
-26.96
29 November 2012
-0.75
-25.46
30 November 2012
2.63
-30.89
3 December 2012
11.14
-27.02
4 December 2012
10.48
-29.44
5 December 2012
10.43
-28.98
6 December 2012
15.21
-26.98
7 December 2012
-22.84
-19.12
* 30-year FNMA dollar rolls for 3.0% coupon. Front month is currently December-January roll; next month is January-February roll. Return to text
Note: A dashed horizontal line indicates Fails Charge at -200 basis points. A vertical line indicates the September 12-13, 2012 FOMC meeting.
Source: J.P. Morgan
Middle-right panel
(16) MBS Option-Adjusted Spreads to Treasury*
Basis points
Date
3.0% Coupon
5.5% Coupon
1 August 2011
47.26
46.11
2 August 2011
47.13
47.12
3 August 2011
45.55
46.50
4 August 2011
47.85
50.83
5 August 2011
54.13
51.75
8 August 2011
60.77
57.63
9 August 2011
58.99
60.62
10 August 2011
46.04
39.72
11 August 2011
41.72
35.67
12 August 2011
45.02
33.56
15 August 2011
47.03
34.62
48.12
37.54
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16 August
2011
17 August 2011
50.00
39.67
18 August 2011
57.91
42.61
19 August 2011
63.41
51.56
22 August 2011
64.44
58.12
23 August 2011
62.71
62.30
24 August 2011
58.84
64.45
25 August 2011
57.16
72.61
26 August 2011
57.95
66.59
29 August 2011
57.77
65.65
30 August 2011
59.55
62.67
31 August 2011
59.13
58.76
1 September 2011
60.93
54.35
2 September 2011
68.43
61.60
6 September 2011
69.73
62.98
7 September 2011
67.86
62.81
8 September 2011
69.12
71.36
9 September 2011
72.28
67.93
12 September 2011
75.75
71.90
13 September 2011
71.78
68.24
14 September 2011
71.74
69.59
15 September 2011
69.76
66.83
16 September 2011
71.22
69.14
19 September 2011
71.51
70.94
20 September 2011
71.50
74.68
21 September 2011
67.09
69.65
22 September 2011
60.12
64.72
23 September 2011
65.72
73.68
26 September 2011
59.96
78.10
27 September 2011
57.95
81.37
28 September 2011
59.78
76.59
29 September 2011
60.10
79.58
30 September 2011
61.62
77.33
3 October 2011
68.10
77.14
4 October 2011
70.33
83.91
5 October 2011
68.09
83.61
6 October 2011
65.94
87.70
7 October 2011
67.33
86.55
11 October 2011
63.12
76.54
12 October 2011
58.01
74.58
13 October 2011
60.68
76.06
14 October 2011
60.93
77.59
17 October 2011
62.83
79.72
18 October 2011
58.06
80.01
19 October 2011
57.64
78.21
20 October 2011
56.44
75.84
21 October 2011
53.55
74.39
24 October 2011
53.62
87.57
25 October 2011
58.06
84.77
26 October 2011
55.42
76.84
27 October 2011
46.72
69.05
28 October 2011
47.63
66.68
31 October 2011
51.45
72.01
1 November 2011
57.10
74.07
2 November 2011
56.14
75.16
3 November 2011
56.78
74.25
4 November 2011
55.85
73.06
7 November 2011
58.34
77.58
8 November 2011
55.19
74.04
9 November 2011
64.30
83.01
10 November 2011
59.97
81.46
14 November 2011
63.22
89.18
15 November 2011
62.28
86.80
16 November 2011
64.25
80.67
17 November 2011
67.61
84.23
18 November 2011
66.87
81.92
21 November 2011
68.98
84.60
22 November 2011
69.12
88.45
23 November 2011
73.88
92.74
72.07
92.12
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25 November
2011
28 November 2011
69.58
88.99
29 November 2011
65.20
83.47
30 November 2011
55.53
75.09
1 December 2011
54.24
75.91
2 December 2011
56.72
79.01
5 December 2011
55.56
56.97
6 December 2011
53.10
55.44
7 December 2011
52.24
50.10
8 December 2011
56.59
68.26
9 December 2011
55.91
68.06
12 December 2011
59.93
69.81
13 December 2011
60.33
69.88
14 December 2011
61.07
69.80
15 December 2011
63.05
72.44
16 December 2011
63.64
77.98
19 December 2011
64.45
82.76
20 December 2011
60.72
76.54
21 December 2011
57.99
80.64
22 December 2011
57.96
78.52
23 December 2011
55.73
76.32
27 December 2011
55.93
74.16
28 December 2011
61.19
74.12
29 December 2011
57.60
69.24
30 December 2011
58.92
68.74
3 January 2012
49.07
61.02
4 January 2012
46.35
61.02
5 January 2012
42.49
62.67
6 January 2012
39.08
63.42
9 January 2012
35.77
62.60
10 January 2012
43.49
61.98
11 January 2012
47.29
64.46
12 January 2012
44.45
62.03
13 January 2012
47.28
64.46
17 January 2012
50.35
66.56
18 January 2012
48.55
67.21
19 January 2012
47.93
67.17
20 January 2012
44.55
65.57
23 January 2012
39.60
62.61
24 January 2012
38.36
64.04
25 January 2012
39.94
69.94
26 January 2012
40.90
70.51
27 January 2012
40.55
67.47
30 January 2012
45.67
69.83
31 January 2012
46.33
71.94
1 February 2012
39.87
68.14
2 February 2012
36.48
64.51
3 February 2012
32.51
60.11
6 February 2012
32.30
59.91
7 February 2012
29.01
56.51
8 February 2012
26.77
51.37
9 February 2012
30.63
55.86
10 February 2012
34.36
56.66
13 February 2012
32.02
52.34
14 February 2012
32.59
51.76
15 February 2012
32.68
50.85
16 February 2012
32.07
51.79
17 February 2012
34.12
52.46
21 February 2012
35.89
52.66
22 February 2012
35.61
52.29
23 February 2012
33.00
49.31
24 February 2012
35.99
52.35
27 February 2012
38.30
55.77
28 February 2012
36.98
56.06
29 February 2012
39.78
56.32
1 March 2012
37.88
56.07
2 March 2012
39.09
58.96
5 March 2012
37.80
58.47
6 March 2012
39.45
59.32
39.77
64.30
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7 March
2012
8 March 2012
38.54
66.21
9 March 2012
35.95
59.04
12 March 2012
36.43
58.32
13 March 2012
36.20
55.80
14 March 2012
37.90
54.03
15 March 2012
36.47
53.04
16 March 2012
34.21
50.01
19 March 2012
36.50
49.29
20 March 2012
37.29
47.96
21 March 2012
36.26
47.75
22 March 2012
37.69
48.78
23 March 2012
40.07
51.43
26 March 2012
38.05
49.84
27 March 2012
35.77
49.41
28 March 2012
37.39
48.71
29 March 2012
36.76
50.17
30 March 2012
34.55
49.57
2 April 2012
34.05
48.70
3 April 2012
35.99
50.44
4 April 2012
35.77
50.56
5 April 2012
37.03
48.90
6 April 2012
37.19
45.76
9 April 2012
35.93
41.93
10 April 2012
40.41
49.12
11 April 2012
41.40
48.31
12 April 2012
41.56
47.06
13 April 2012
43.31
48.16
16 April 2012
43.91
49.46
17 April 2012
44.58
50.11
18 April 2012
44.17
49.37
19 April 2012
41.73
48.27
20 April 2012
42.09
50.23
23 April 2012
42.85
51.45
24 April 2012
42.60
50.12
25 April 2012
43.42
51.02
26 April 2012
42.89
51.07
27 April 2012
42.86
52.95
30 April 2012
42.93
54.59
1 May 2012
40.81
49.87
2 May 2012
43.44
50.95
3 May 2012
43.72
48.85
4 May 2012
37.40
51.63
7 May 2012
37.20
51.57
8 May 2012
39.38
53.87
9 May 2012
37.59
54.60
10 May 2012
36.11
59.12
11 May 2012
37.56
60.50
14 May 2012
37.73
63.66
15 May 2012
38.43
64.64
16 May 2012
37.16
63.13
17 May 2012
37.31
64.12
18 May 2012
37.49
64.17
21 May 2012
41.54
67.29
22 May 2012
39.65
65.57
23 May 2012
43.82
68.82
24 May 2012
42.50
71.31
25 May 2012
43.89
73.38
29 May 2012
46.28
74.98
30 May 2012
48.28
77.11
31 May 2012
46.50
77.28
1 June 2012
45.22
79.69
4 June 2012
50.28
81.36
5 June 2012
52.41
85.37
6 June 2012
46.82
77.47
7 June 2012
43.04
76.94
8 June 2012
44.47
76.54
11 June 2012
43.40
75.35
12 June 2012
43.83
70.77
44.32
71.22
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13 June
2012
14 June 2012
43.83
72.84
15 June 2012
43.53
75.61
18 June 2012
41.47
77.24
19 June 2012
37.30
75.60
20 June 2012
42.13
76.70
21 June 2012
40.56
70.83
22 June 2012
40.38
69.31
25 June 2012
36.37
63.77
26 June 2012
40.07
67.29
27 June 2012
35.53
66.65
28 June 2012
36.23
70.35
29 June 2012
35.31
70.04
2 July 2012
33.26
69.37
3 July 2012
33.66
69.88
5 July 2012
32.82
68.94
6 July 2012
28.11
68.35
9 July 2012
28.65
64.43
10 July 2012
24.90
61.60
11 July 2012
25.11
57.17
12 July 2012
26.54
57.77
13 July 2012
32.05
61.12
16 July 2012
28.05
60.42
17 July 2012
29.17
62.63
18 July 2012
25.26
61.94
19 July 2012
26.21
61.18
20 July 2012
23.93
60.72
23 July 2012
21.03
59.78
24 July 2012
19.51
59.76
25 July 2012
20.89
58.22
26 July 2012
22.24
54.22
27 July 2012
26.76
53.11
30 July 2012
22.86
51.85
31 July 2012
19.38
50.86
1 August 2012
19.67
49.73
2 August 2012
22.58
51.94
3 August 2012
23.85
51.61
6 August 2012
25.01
54.46
7 August 2012
24.52
53.06
8 August 2012
20.23
49.70
9 August 2012
20.86
49.65
10 August 2012
21.98
51.29
13 August 2012
22.33
52.11
14 August 2012
22.50
50.47
15 August 2012
27.28
57.39
16 August 2012
27.59
57.96
17 August 2012
27.16
59.25
20 August 2012
25.54
58.52
21 August 2012
26.52
59.07
22 August 2012
22.63
54.14
23 August 2012
20.84
54.73
24 August 2012
23.40
52.92
27 August 2012
21.92
52.46
28 August 2012
21.81
51.87
29 August 2012
25.46
52.92
30 August 2012
25.43
53.62
31 August 2012
20.78
52.60
4 September 2012
20.79
51.79
5 September 2012
21.12
51.03
6 September 2012
21.87
49.96
7 September 2012
12.64
49.83
10 September 2012
13.38
50.65
11 September 2012
12.64
51.58
12 September 2012
10.12
48.90
13 September 2012
-14.27
37.58
14 September 2012
-20.83
30.26
17 September 2012
-16.20
30.46
18 September 2012
-14.23
33.99
19 September 2012
-18.76
32.54
-23.37
31.04
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20 September
2012
21 September 2012
-33.94
28.00
24 September 2012
-43.50
24.87
25 September 2012
-54.47
21.28
26 September 2012
-57.85
25.07
27 September 2012
-34.32
30.64
28 September 2012
-31.21
39.45
1 October 2012
-36.21
38.82
2 October 2012
-44.23
43.99
3 October 2012
-33.67
45.97
4 October 2012
-23.93
44.25
5 October 2012
-26.17
39.51
9 October 2012
-20.33
43.85
10 October 2012
-22.84
42.83
11 October 2012
-24.52
42.42
12 October 2012
-21.89
43.31
15 October 2012
-18.18
44.64
16 October 2012
-18.65
41.80
17 October 2012
-15.50
39.92
18 October 2012
-11.44
40.54
19 October 2012
-12.65
37.64
22 October 2012
-13.36
35.68
23 October 2012
-12.71
37.23
24 October 2012
-10.99
38.63
25 October 2012
-10.13
38.35
26 October 2012
-11.91
41.49
29 October 2012
-10.70
42.36
31 October 2012
-10.46
43.87
1 November 2012
-6.93
45.00
2 November 2012
-10.93
43.15
5 November 2012
-11.66
43.56
6 November 2012
-5.62
46.59
7 November 2012
-10.94
53.91
8 November 2012
-10.71
57.71
9 November 2012
-8.90
66.83
13 November 2012
-2.46
80.85
14 November 2012
4.37
84.66
15 November 2012
-0.07
83.78
16 November 2012
-4.46
80.71
19 November 2012
-3.96
78.03
20 November 2012
-3.92
76.57
21 November 2012
-2.06
76.02
23 November 2012
-1.64
75.94
26 November 2012
-4.94
76.35
27 November 2012
-9.83
76.70
28 November 2012
-8.13
79.23
29 November 2012
1.72
83.33
30 November 2012
1.65
86.12
3 December 2012
0.24
86.40
4 December 2012
-0.07
86.32
5 December 2012
1.09
87.47
6 December 2012
5.43
90.94
7 December 2012
6.39
88.12
* FNMA 30-year OAS to Treasury. Return to text
Note: A vertical line indicates the September 12-13, 2012 FOMC meeting.
Source: Barclays
Bottom-left panel
(17) Expected Pace of Asset Purchases*
(One Year Ahead)
Asset: $ Billions
Percent of Dealers
Treasuries: 0
23.81
Treasuries: (0, 20]
14.29
Treasuries: (20, 45)
14.29
Treasuries: 45
47.62
MBS: 0
19.05
MBS: (0, 20]
Loading
MBS: [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
(20, 40)
9.52
9.52
MBS: 40
61.90
* Figures from flash survey after Employment Situation report. Return to text
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey
Bottom-right panel
(18) Probability Distribution of SOMA Portfolio Holdings
(Average End-2014 Forecasts)
Percent
Par Amount ($ Billions)
October Survey
December Survey*
<2,500
0.57
2,500-3,000
4.48
5.57
3,000-3,500
22.10
17.38
3,500-4,000
34.19
34.62
4,000-4,500
18.19
19.76
4,500-5,000
7.90
13.33
12.62
8.19
>5,000
1.14
* Figures from flash survey after Employment Situation report. Return to table
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey
Exhibit 4 (Last)
Top-left panel
(19) Overall Policy Forecast Dispersion in Fed Funds Equivalents
(12 Months Ahead)
Percent
Date
Disagreement
Uncertainty
20 March 2007
0.477
0.254
8 May 2007
0.498
0.249
27 June 2007
0.309
0.193
6 August 2007
0.385
0.214
17 September 2007
0.433
0.222
30 October 2007
0.398
0.240
10 December 2007
0.473
0.287
29 January 2008
0.734
0.229
17 March 2008
0.337
0.278
29 April 2008
0.416
0.248
24 June 2008
0.453
0.275
4 August 2008
0.430
0.248
15 September 2008
0.514
0.239
28 October 2008
0.436
0.235
15 December 2008
0.261
0.194
27 January 2009
0.188
0.241
17 March 2009
0.178
0.255
28 April 2009
0.195
0.255
23 June 2009
0.209
0.269
11 August 2009
0.264
0.149
22 September 2009
0.273
0.138
3 November 2009
0.357
0.156
15 December 2009
0.557
0.250
26 January 2010
0.557
0.250
15 March 2010
0.517
0.280
27 April 2010
0.635
0.236
22 June 2010
0.441
0.200
9 August 2010
0.392
0.228
20 September 2010
0.182
0.175
2 November 2010
0.220
0.156
13 December 2010
0.104
0.097
25 January 2011
0.283
ND
14 March 2011
0.325
ND
26 April 2011
0.335
ND
21 June 2011
0.234
ND
8 August 2011
0.236
ND
1 November 2011
0.272
ND
24 January 2012
0.303
ND
19 June 2012
0.264
ND
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31 July 2012
0.284
12 September 2012
0.231
ND
ND
23 October 2012
0.159
0.285
11 December 2012
0.109
0.303
Note: A vertical line indicates "Including Balance Sheet" near the end of 2010. Dashed lines (to the left of the vertical line) are measures for fed funds only; solid lines (to the right of the vertical line)
are overall policy uncertainty and disagreement.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey, Wallis (2005)
Top-right panel
(20) Quarters Between End of Purchases and First Rate Hike
Percent of Dealers
Quarters
October Survey
December Survey
-2
4.76
4.76
-1
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
4.76
1
0.00
4.76
2
4.76
4.76
3
0.00
4.76
4
19.05
9.52
5
23.81
14.29
6
23.81
38.10
7
9.52
4.76
8
4.76
0.00
9
4.76
9.52
10
4.76
0.00
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey
Appendix 2: Materials used by Mses. Ihrig and Remache
Material for
FOMC Presentation: Options for Continuation of Open-Ended Asset Purchases in 2013
Jane Ihrig and Julie Remache
December 11, 2012
Class I FOMC - Restricted-Controlled (FR)
Exhibit 1
Top-left panel
Purchase Programs
$ Billions
Total Size*
2013 Purchases
Option 1
750
500
Option 3
1250
1000
Option 6
250
0
* Includes purchases from October through December 2012. Return to table
Top-right panel
SOMA Holdings
Monthly
$ Billions
Period
Option 1
Option 3
Option 6
January 2011
2238
2238
2238
February 2011
2320
2320
2320
March 2011
2410
2410
2410
April 2011
2472
2472
2472
May 2011
2567
2567
2567
June 2011
2645
2645
2645
July 2011
2648
2648
2648
August 2011
2647
2647
2647
September 2011
2644
2644
2644
October 2011
2620
2620
2620
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November 2011
2605
2605
2605
December 2011
2605
2605
2605
January 2012
2597
2597
2597
February 2012
2603
2603
2603
March 2012
2594
2594
2594
April 2012
2603
2603
2603
May 2012
2606
2606
2606
June 2012
2606
2606
2606
July 2012
2589
2589
2589
August 2012
2573
2573
2573
September 2012
2564
2564
2564
October 2012
2568
2568
2568
November 2012
2600
2600
2601
December 2012
2650
2648
2652
January 2013
2735
2732
2694
February 2013
2822
2819
2719
March 2013
2909
2906
2725
April 2013
2997
2993
2727
May 2013
3084
3081
2730
June 2013
3172
3168
2732
July 2013
3214
3256
2735
August 2013
3239
3344
2738
September 2013
3247
3432
2742
October 2013
3250
3520
2744
November 2013
3251
3607
2746
December 2013
3252
3693
2746
January 2014
3253
3734
2747
February 2014
3254
3756
2747
March 2014
3255
3762
2748
April 2014
3256
3763
2749
May 2014
3257
3764
2749
June 2014
3257
3765
2750
July 2014
3258
3765
2750
August 2014
3258
3766
2750
September 2014
3258
3766
2751
October 2014
3258
3766
2751
November 2014
3258
3766
2751
December 2014
3258
3766
2751
January 2015
3259
3767
2752
February 2015
3260
3767
2753
March 2015
3254
3761
2748
April 2015
3244
3749
2739
May 2015
3232
3736
2730
June 2015
3220
3722
2720
July 2015
3208
3708
2710
August 2015
3196
3695
2700
September 2015
3184
3681
2690
October 2015
3173
3668
2681
November 2015
3161
3654
2671
December 2015
3149
3641
2661
January 2016
3130
3620
2645
February 2016
3073
3559
2591
March 2016
3028
3510
2550
April 2016
2979
3458
2504
May 2016
2919
3394
2448
June 2016
2884
3356
2417
July 2016
2853
3321
2389
August 2016
2819
3283
2358
September 2016
2791
3251
2334
October 2016
2763
3220
2310
November 2016
2718
3171
2269
December 2016
2685
3135
2239
January 2017
2656
3101
2213
February 2017
2616
3058
2177
March 2017
2585
3023
2149
April 2017
2551
2986
2119
May 2017
2500
2931
2072
June 2017
2468
2896
2044
2434
2858
2019
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[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
July 2017
August 2017
2388
2808
1982
September 2017
2357
2773
1960
October 2017
2329
2741
1941
November 2017
2285
2694
1907
December 2017
2246
2651
1877
January 2018
2210
2606
1845
February 2018
2160
2547
1798
March 2018
2126
2503
1768
April 2018
2089
2457
1734
May 2018
2027
2385
1676
June 2018
1992
2342
1645
July 2018
1948
2294
1609
August 2018
1891
2233
1595
September 2018
1859
2197
1604
October 2018
1818
2152
1612
November 2018
1748
2079
1620
December 2018
1711
2038
1628
January 2019
1684
2003
1637
February 2019
1629
1936
1645
March 2019
1638
1892
1654
April 2019
1647
1839
1663
May 2019
1656
1758
1671
June 2019
1665
1713
1680
July 2019
1675
1677
1689
August 2019
1684
1637
1698
September 2019
1693
1646
1706
October 2019
1704
1654
1715
November 2019
1713
1663
1724
December 2019
1722
1672
1733
January 2020
1731
1681
1742
February 2020
1741
1691
1751
March 2020
1750
1700
1761
April 2020
1760
1709
1770
May 2020
1769
1719
1779
June 2020
1779
1728
1789
July 2020
1788
1737
1798
August 2020
1798
1747
1808
September 2020
1807
1757
1817
October 2020
1817
1766
1826
November 2020
1826
1776
1836
December 2020
1836
1786
1845
January 2021
1845
1795
1854
February 2021
1855
1805
1864
March 2021
1864
1814
1873
April 2021
1873
1831
1882
May 2021
1883
1841
1892
June 2021
1892
1850
1901
July 2021
1901
1868
1911
August 2021
1910
1878
1920
September 2021
1920
1887
1929
October 2021
1929
1906
1939
November 2021
1939
1915
1948
December 2021
1948
1924
1958
January 2022
1958
1944
1967
February 2022
1967
1954
1977
March 2022
1977
1964
1987
April 2022
1987
1981
1997
May 2022
1997
1991
2007
June 2022
2007
2000
2017
July 2022
2017
2010
2027
August 2022
2027
2020
2037
September 2022
2037
2030
2047
October 2022
2047
2040
2057
November 2022
2057
2050
2068
December 2022
2067
2060
2078
January 2023
2078
2071
2088
February 2023
2089
2082
2099
March 2023
2099
2092
2110
2110
2103
2120
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[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
April 2023
May 2023
2121
2113
2131
June 2023
2131
2124
2142
July 2023
2142
2135
2153
August 2023
2153
2146
2164
September 2023
2164
2156
2175
October 2023
2175
2167
2185
November 2023
2185
2178
2196
December 2023
2196
2189
2207
January 2024
2208
2200
2219
February 2024
2219
2212
2230
March 2024
2231
2223
2242
April 2024
2242
2235
2253
May 2024
2254
2246
2265
June 2024
2265
2258
2276
July 2024
2277
2269
2288
August 2024
2288
2281
2300
September 2024
2300
2293
2311
October 2024
2312
2304
2323
November 2024
2324
2316
2335
December 2024
2335
2328
2347
January 2025
2348
2340
2359
February 2025
2360
2352
2371
March 2025
2372
2365
2384
April 2025
2385
2377
2396
May 2025
2397
2389
2409
June 2025
2410
2402
2421
July 2025
2422
2414
2434
August 2025
2435
2427
2446
September 2025
2447
2439
2459
October 2025
2460
2452
2471
November 2025
2472
2464
2484
December 2025
2485
2477
2497
Bottom-left panel
Unemployment Rate
Percent
Period
Option 1
Option 3
Option 6
2011:Q1
8.99
8.99
8.99
2011:Q2
9.07
9.07
9.07
2011:Q3
9.06
9.06
9.06
2011:Q4
8.71
8.71
8.71
2012:Q1
8.24
8.24
8.24
2012:Q2
8.17
8.17
8.17
2012:Q3
8.05
8.05
8.05
2012:Q4
8.02
8.02
8.01
2013:Q1
7.97
7.95
7.98
2013:Q2
7.95
7.92
7.99
2013:Q3
7.88
7.82
7.95
2013:Q4
7.78
7.68
7.89
2014:Q1
7.64
7.51
7.78
2014:Q2
7.49
7.33
7.66
2014:Q3
7.33
7.13
7.53
2014:Q4
7.16
6.94
7.39
2015:Q1
6.92
6.68
7.17
2015:Q2
6.68
6.43
6.95
2015:Q3
6.44
6.18
6.73
2015:Q4
6.21
5.94
6.50
2016:Q1
5.98
5.71
6.28
2016:Q2
5.78
5.52
6.09
2016:Q3
5.62
5.36
5.92
2016:Q4
5.49
5.24
5.78
2017:Q1
5.38
5.14
5.66
2017:Q2
5.28
5.07
5.55
2017:Q3
5.20
5.01
5.45
2017:Q4
5.12
4.96
5.36
2018:Q1
5.13
4.99
5.34
2018:Q2
5.15
5.03
5.34
5.18
5.09
5.35
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2018:Q3
2018:Q4
5.22
5.14
5.36
2019:Q1
5.26
5.19
5.37
2019:Q2
5.28
5.23
5.37
2019:Q3
5.30
5.25
5.37
2019:Q4
5.30
5.26
5.35
2020:Q1
5.29
5.27
5.33
2020:Q2
5.28
5.27
5.31
2020:Q3
5.27
5.26
5.29
2020:Q4
5.26
5.26
5.27
2021:Q1
5.25
5.25
5.25
2021:Q2
5.24
5.25
5.24
2021:Q3
5.24
5.24
5.23
2021:Q4
5.23
5.24
5.22
2022:Q1
5.22
5.23
5.21
2022:Q2
5.21
5.22
5.20
2022:Q3
5.20
5.21
5.19
2022:Q4
5.19
5.20
5.18
2023:Q1
5.18
5.19
5.17
2023:Q2
5.17
5.17
5.16
2023:Q3
5.15
5.16
5.14
2023:Q4
5.14
5.14
5.13
2024:Q1
5.13
5.13
5.12
2024:Q2
5.12
5.12
5.11
2024:Q3
5.11
5.11
5.10
2024:Q4
5.10
5.10
5.09
2025:Q1
5.09
5.09
5.08
2025:Q2
5.08
5.08
5.08
2025:Q3
5.07
5.07
5.07
2025:Q4
5.06
5.06
5.06
Bottom-right panel
Core PCE Inflation (4-qtr)
Percent
Period
Option 1
Option 3
Option 6
2011:Q1
1.12
1.12
1.12
2011:Q2
1.34
1.34
1.34
2011:Q3
1.58
1.58
1.58
2011:Q4
1.72
1.72
1.72
2012:Q1
1.94
1.94
1.94
2012:Q2
1.80
1.80
1.80
2012:Q3
1.61
1.61
1.61
2012:Q4
1.62
1.66
1.58
2013:Q1
1.46
1.52
1.39
2013:Q2
1.43
1.52
1.32
2013:Q3
1.54
1.66
1.39
2013:Q4
1.60
1.71
1.45
2014:Q1
1.62
1.74
1.46
2014:Q2
1.64
1.77
1.47
2014:Q3
1.65
1.79
1.48
2014:Q4
1.67
1.81
1.49
2015:Q1
1.67
1.81
1.49
2015:Q2
1.68
1.82
1.49
2015:Q3
1.69
1.84
1.50
2015:Q4
1.70
1.85
1.51
2016:Q1
1.73
1.88
1.54
2016:Q2
1.77
1.92
1.58
2016:Q3
1.82
1.97
1.64
2016:Q4
1.88
2.03
1.71
2017:Q1
1.93
2.07
1.76
2017:Q2
1.96
2.10
1.80
2017:Q3
1.99
2.12
1.83
2017:Q4
2.01
2.13
1.86
2018:Q1
2.02
2.13
1.88
2018:Q2
2.03
2.13
1.90
2018:Q3
2.03
2.12
1.92
2018:Q4
2.03
2.11
1.93
2019:Q1
2.03
2.09
1.95
2.03
2.08
1.96
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2019:Q2
2019:Q3
2.02
2.06
1.97
2019:Q4
2.02
2.05
1.98
2020:Q1
2.02
2.03
1.99
2020:Q2
2.02
2.02
2.00
2020:Q3
2.01
2.01
2.01
2020:Q4
2.01
2.01
2.02
2021:Q1
2.02
2.00
2.04
2021:Q2
2.02
2.00
2.04
2021:Q3
2.02
1.99
2.05
2021:Q4
2.02
1.99
2.06
2022:Q1
2.02
1.99
2.06
2022:Q2
2.02
1.99
2.07
2022:Q3
2.02
1.99
2.07
2022:Q4
2.03
1.99
2.08
2023:Q1
2.03
1.99
2.08
2023:Q2
2.03
2.00
2.08
2023:Q3
2.03
2.00
2.08
2023:Q4
2.03
2.00
2.08
2024:Q1
2.04
2.01
2.08
2024:Q2
2.04
2.01
2.08
2024:Q3
2.04
2.02
2.08
2024:Q4
2.04
2.02
2.08
2025:Q1
2.05
2.03
2.08
2025:Q2
2.05
2.03
2.08
2025:Q3
2.05
2.03
2.08
2025:Q4
2.05
2.04
2.08
Exhibit 2
Top-left panel
(1) Annual Remittances to Treasury
$ Billions
Period
Option 1
Option 3
Option 6
2010
79.27
79.27
79.27
2011
75.42
75.42
75.42
2012
85.35
85.28
85.53
2013
70.66
71.99
65.35
2014
71.99
80.53
64.56
2015
67.33
75.07
60.66
2016
24.62
21.34
28.90
2017
1.60
0.00
11.89
2018
0.00
0.00
11.45
2019
2.18
0.00
17.02
2020
11.31
0.00
21.82
2021
41.38
0.00
44.39
2022
47.41
37.74
50.32
2023
51.29
49.14
54.00
2024
54.78
52.73
57.45
2025
58.26
56.18
61.11
Inset: Peak Deferred Asset: Option 1: $4B (2018); Option 3: $45B (2020); Option 6: N/A.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Top-right panel
(2) Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Percent
Period
Option 1
Option 3
Option 6
28 February 2011
65.11
65.11
65.11
31 May 2011
64.91
64.91
64.91
31 August 2011
66.79
66.79
66.79
30 November 2011
68.23
68.23
68.23
29 February 2012
70.11
70.11
70.11
31 May 2012
71.43
71.43
71.43
31 August 2012
72.26
72.26
72.26
30 November 2012
73.25
73.25
73.26
74.09
74.02
74.17
74.64
74.50
74.82
28 February
2013
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31 May 2013
31 August 2013
75.05
74.81
75.35
30 November 2013
75.39
75.04
75.81
28 February 2014
75.53
75.06
76.08
31 May 2014
75.61
75.03
76.30
31 August 2014
75.67
74.97
76.49
30 November 2014
75.69
74.88
76.65
28 February 2015
75.58
74.66
76.67
31 May 2015
75.41
74.37
76.62
31 August 2015
75.19
74.05
76.52
30 November 2015
74.93
73.69
76.39
29 February 2016
74.59
73.26
76.15
31 May 2016
74.36
72.95
76.02
31 August 2016
74.19
72.71
75.94
30 November 2016
74.08
72.55
75.92
28 February 2017
74.02
72.44
75.93
31 May 2017
74.01
72.38
75.98
31 August 2017
74.04
72.38
76.08
30 November 2017
74.13
72.44
76.21
28 February 2018
74.30
72.59
76.43
31 May 2018
74.54
72.81
76.69
31 August 2018
74.83
73.08
77.00
30 November 2018
75.14
73.39
77.33
28 February 2019
75.48
73.72
77.67
31 May 2019
75.83
74.07
78.02
31 August 2019
76.20
74.44
78.38
30 November 2019
76.60
74.85
78.77
29 February 2020
77.01
75.29
79.17
31 May 2020
77.46
75.75
79.60
31 August 2020
77.92
76.25
80.04
30 November 2020
78.40
76.76
80.50
28 February 2021
78.88
77.31
80.97
31 May 2021
79.38
77.86
81.44
31 August 2021
79.87
78.42
81.91
30 November 2021
80.36
78.98
82.37
28 February 2022
80.84
79.51
82.82
31 May 2022
81.30
80.00
83.25
31 August 2022
81.76
80.48
83.68
30 November 2022
82.20
80.94
84.09
28 February 2023
82.62
81.39
84.48
31 May 2023
83.04
81.82
84.87
31 August 2023
83.44
82.24
85.24
30 November 2023
83.83
82.65
85.60
29 February 2024
84.21
83.04
85.96
31 May 2024
84.57
83.42
86.30
31 August 2024
84.93
83.79
86.63
30 November 2024
85.27
84.15
86.95
28 February 2025
85.60
84.50
87.26
31 May 2025
85.93
84.84
87.56
31 August 2025
86.24
85.17
87.85
30 November 2025
86.55
85.49
88.14
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Middle-left panel
(3) Annual Remittances to Treasury - Interest Rate Shocks
$ Billions
Period
Option 3
Option 3 -100 bp shock
Option 3 +200 bp shock
2010
79.27
79.27
79.27
2011
75.42
75.42
75.42
2012
85.28
85.25
85.36
2013
71.99
71.91
73.78
2014
80.53
80.48
76.19
2015
75.07
77.48
8.54
2016
21.34
45.09
0.00
2017
0.00
6.74
0.00
2018
0.00
0.30
0.00
2019
0.00
7.81
0.00
2020
0.00
9.22
0.00
2021
0.00
28.57
0.00
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2022
37.74
31.72
0.00
2023
49.14
33.80
41.09
2024
52.73
35.86
78.64
2025
56.18
37.61
81.00
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Middle-right panel
(4) Deferred Assets - Interest Rate Shocks
$ Billions
Period
Option 3
Option 3 -100 bp shock
Option 3 +200 bp shock
2010
0.00
0.00
0.00
2011
0.00
0.00
0.00
2012
0.00
0.00
0.00
2013
0.00
0.00
0.00
2014
0.00
0.00
0.00
2015
0.00
0.00
5.85
2016
0.00
0.00
45.95
2017
17.57
0.36
101.92
2018
36.47
0.00
150.35
2019
43.20
0.00
181.35
2020
44.14
0.00
148.94
2021
6.99
0.00
98.34
2022
0.00
0.00
33.59
2023
0.00
0.00
0.00
2024
0.00
0.00
0.00
2025
0.00
0.00
0.00
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Bottom-left panel
(5) SOMA Holdings - No Sales
$ Trillions
Period
Option 3
Option 3 No Sales
2010
2.16
2.16
2011
2.60
2.60
2012
2.64
2.64
2013
3.69
3.69
2014
3.76
3.76
2015
3.64
3.63
2016
3.13
3.24
2017
2.65
2.90
2018
2.03
2.44
2019
1.67
2.00
2020
1.78
1.80
2021
1.92
1.92
2022
2.06
2.04
2023
2.18
2.17
2024
2.32
2.31
2025
2.47
2.46
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Bottom-right panel
(6) Annual Remittances to Treasury - No Sales
$ Billions
Period
Option 3
Option 3 No Sales
2010
79.27
79.27
2011
75.42
75.42
2012
85.28
85.29
2013
71.99
72.03
2014
80.53
80.57
2015
75.07
75.08
2016
21.34
34.34
2017
0.00
2.11
2018
0.00
0.00
2019
0.00
8.64
2020
0.00
21.46
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2021
0.00
27.66
2022
37.74
35.17
2023
49.14
40.37
2024
52.73
44.58
2025
56.18
48.89
Inset: Peak Deferred Asset: Option 3: $45B (2020); Option 3 No Sales: $6B (2018).
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. Wilcox
Material for
Forecast Summary
David Wilcox
December 11, 2012
Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)
Forecast Summary
Confidence Intervals Based on Tealbook Track Record
Top-left panel
Real GDP
Percent change, annual rate
Period
December TB
October TB
70% confidence interval, lower bound
70% confidence interval, upper bound
2012:Q1
1.96
1.96
ND
2012:Q2
1.25
1.25
ND
ND
ND
2012:Q3
2.76
2.01
2.76
2.76
2012:Q4
0.86
2.05
-0.52
2.07
2013:Q1
1.74
1.80
-0.59
3.97
2013:Q2
2.50
2.52
0.08
5.12
2013:Q3
2.81
3.04
0.42
5.89
2013:Q4
2.88
3.15
0.32
6.01
2014:Q1
2.91
3.41
0.16
6.06
2014:Q2
3.08
3.48
0.35
6.11
2014:Q3
3.26
3.50
0.29
6.27
2014:Q4
3.42
3.57
0.14
6.16
2015:Q1
3.43
3.71
0.03
6.17
2015:Q2
3.53
3.74
0.02
5.98
2015:Q3
3.65
3.74
0.06
6.16
2015:Q4
3.71
3.74
-0.05
6.08
Top-right panel
Unemployment Rate
Percent
Period
December TB
October TB
70% confidence interval, lower bound
70% confidence interval, upper bound
2012:Q1
8.20
8.20
ND
2012:Q2
8.20
8.20
ND
ND
ND
2012:Q3
8.05
8.05
8.05
8.05
2012:Q4
7.96
8.02
7.87
8.05
2013:Q1
7.93
7.97
7.72
8.13
2013:Q2
7.89
7.95
7.54
8.22
2013:Q3
7.86
7.88
7.34
8.30
2013:Q4
7.81
7.78
7.12
8.37
2014:Q1
7.73
7.64
6.88
8.40
2014:Q2
7.66
7.49
6.66
8.42
2014:Q3
7.54
7.33
6.41
8.40
2014:Q4
7.39
7.16
6.17
8.33
2015:Q1
7.20
6.92
5.94
8.20
2015:Q2
6.97
6.68
5.72
8.08
2015:Q3
6.77
6.44
5.53
7.95
2015:Q4
6.54
6.21
5.36
7.80
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Note: Also
shown in the chart are the Natural Rate, and the Natural Rate with EEB (effect of emergency unemployment compensation and state-federal extended benefit programs). The Natural
Rate begins in 2012:Q1 at about 6.0, remains at that level until 2014:Q4, and then decreases gradually to about 5.8 by 2015:Q4. The Natural Rate with EEB begins in 2012:Q1 at about 6.2,
decreases gradually to about 6.0 by 2013:Q1, and equals the Natural Rate for the remainder of the period.
Middle-left panel
PCE Prices
Percent change, annual rate
Period
December TB
October TB
70% confidence interval, lower bound
70% confidence interval, upper bound
2012:Q1
2.49
2.49
ND
2012:Q2
0.68
0.68
ND
ND
ND
2012:Q3
1.60
1.70
1.60
1.60
2012:Q4
1.53
2.15
0.71
2.37
2013:Q1
1.12
0.93
-0.31
2.61
2013:Q2
1.37
1.42
0.01
2.89
2013:Q3
1.40
1.39
-0.05
2.93
2013:Q4
1.30
1.32
-0.17
2.82
2014:Q1
1.46
1.39
-0.10
3.02
2014:Q2
1.40
1.37
-0.17
3.02
2014:Q3
1.40
1.38
-0.20
3.01
2014:Q4
1.36
1.41
-0.24
2.99
2015:Q1
1.57
1.47
0.02
3.16
2015:Q2
1.52
1.47
-0.03
3.12
2015:Q3
1.53
1.49
-0.07
3.18
2015:Q4
1.53
1.51
-0.01
3.14
Middle-right panel
PCE Prices Excluding Food and Energy
Percent change, annual rate
Period
December TB
October TB
70% confidence interval, lower bound
70% confidence interval, upper bound
2012:Q1
2.23
2.23
ND
2012:Q2
1.71
1.71
ND
ND
ND
2012:Q3
1.10
1.19
1.10
1.10
2012:Q4
1.24
1.36
0.76
1.82
2013:Q1
1.68
1.59
0.84
2.61
2013:Q2
1.59
1.60
0.67
2.60
2013:Q3
1.59
1.60
0.64
2.64
2013:Q4
1.54
1.60
0.56
2.62
2014:Q1
1.70
1.68
0.66
2.81
2014:Q2
1.64
1.67
0.58
2.80
2014:Q3
1.65
1.67
0.55
2.79
2014:Q4
1.57
1.66
0.43
2.74
2015:Q1
1.79
1.69
0.67
2.98
2015:Q2
1.73
1.69
0.58
2.90
2015:Q3
1.73
1.71
0.57
2.95
2015:Q4
1.71
1.71
0.54
2.93
Bottom-left panel
Measures of Monthly Change in Private Payroll Employment
Thousands
Period
Establishment survey
Model estimate
December 2008
-658
-727.40
January 2009
-839
-780.28
February 2009
-725
-753.89
March 2009
-787
-734.91
April 2009
-802
-655.77
May 2009
-312
-466.16
June 2009
-426
-393.70
July 2009
-296
-294.25
August 2009
-219
-243.37
September 2009
-184
-210.00
October 2009
-232
-197.33
November 2009
-42
-128.99
December 2009
-120
-121.25
January 2010
-40
-55.29
February 2010
-27
28.20
March 2010
141
66.34
April 2010
193
139.83
May 2010
84
120.88
June 2010
92
118.68
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July 2010
92
127.12
August 2010
128
140.11
September 2010
115
130.81
October 2010
196
141.38
November 2010
134
129.95
December 2010
140
134.52
January 2011
119
158.96
February 2011
257
182.43
March 2011
261
214.21
April 2011
264
222.91
May 2011
108
166.41
June 2011
102
143.77
July 2011
175
159.16
52
147.84
September 2011
216
166.74
October 2011
139
159.47
November 2011
178
172.79
December 2011
234
186.58
January 2012
277
212.79
February 2012
254
218.89
March 2012
147
173.05
April 2012
85
145.12
May 2012
116
136.71
June 2012
63
117.74
July 2012
163
141.73
August 2012
134
136.30
September 2012
122
146.30
October 2012
189
174.59
November 2012
147
163.97
August 2011
Note: The Kalman filter estimates treat the household survey measure (not shown) and the establishment survey measure as noisy observations of the underlying signal.
Bottom-right panel
Assessment of Economic Policy and Policy Uncertainty*
Index
Period
Michigan (poor opinion of government's economic policy)
Policy uncertainty index
January 2007
104
68.31
February 2007
112
66.52
March 2007
111
68.66
April 2007
109
63.19
May 2007
112
69.00
June 2007
118
70.14
July 2007
114
69.10
August 2007
120
73.88
September 2007
121
82.99
October 2007
118
92.98
November 2007
118
97.39
December 2007
126
99.97
January 2008
122
118.36
February 2008
131
120.20
March 2008
132
121.21
April 2008
136
107.00
May 2008
149
102.48
June 2008
138
96.85
July 2008
144
99.43
August 2008
145
99.94
September 2008
142
130.84
October 2008
150
157.42
November 2008
149
175.18
December 2008
145
161.52
January 2009
144
157.35
February 2009
129
171.73
March 2009
106
180.36
April 2009
105
167.16
May 2009
92
151.22
June 2009
104
139.37
July 2009
109
137.61
August 2009
116
142.32
September 2009
108
147.28
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October 2009
114
151.37
November 2009
111
139.24
December 2009
123
131.13
January 2010
119
132.83
February 2010
128
136.24
March 2010
125
139.52
April 2010
127
135.29
May 2010
124
141.38
June 2010
121
142.42
July 2010
127
156.67
August 2010
119
155.51
September 2010
124
169.40
October 2010
134
163.98
November 2010
131
174.40
December 2010
129
168.71
January 2011
128
161.50
February 2011
115
150.48
March 2011
129
153.58
April 2011
129
158.80
May 2011
122
152.47
June 2011
125
147.16
July 2011
137
160.64
August 2011
152
200.16
September 2011
146
215.66
October 2011
150
203.06
November 2011
147
176.98
December 2011
144
171.98
January 2012
144
178.24
February 2012
136
172.74
March 2012
131
155.38
April 2012
128
140.93
May 2012
126
143.04
June 2012
132
159.62
July 2012
134
175.46
August 2012
134
176.25
September 2012
124
173.82
October 2012
124
170.43
November 2012
122
183.10
December 2012 (approximate projected)
123
ND
* Three-month moving average of index values. Return to text
Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; www.policyuncertainty.com (Baker, Bloom, and Davis)
.
Appendix 4: Materials used by Mr. Kiley
Material for Briefing on
Financial Stability
Michael Kiley
December 11, 2012
Class II FOMC - Restricted (FR)
Exhibit 1
Leverage & Asset Valuations
Top-left panel
Private Nonfinancial Sector Credit-to-GDP Ratio
Quarterly
Ratio
Period
Trend
Ratio
1990:Q1
1.1579
1.2346
1990:Q2
1.1621
1.2323
1990:Q3
1.1664
1.2363
1990:Q4
1.1708
1.2484
1.1751
1.2465
1.1795
1.2388
1991:Q1
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1991:Q2
1991:Q3
1.1839
1.2244
1991:Q4
1.1883
1.2150
1992:Q1
1.1928
1.2041
1992:Q2
1.1973
1.1883
1992:Q3
1.2018
1.1788
1992:Q4
1.2064
1.1698
1993:Q1
1.2110
1.1691
1993:Q2
1.2157
1.1699
1993:Q3
1.2205
1.1745
1993:Q4
1.2253
1.1667
1994:Q1
1.2301
1.1677
1994:Q2
1.2350
1.1635
1994:Q3
1.2400
1.1674
1994:Q4
1.2451
1.1698
1995:Q1
1.2502
1.1808
1995:Q2
1.2554
1.1945
1995:Q3
1.2607
1.1981
1995:Q4
1.2660
1.1997
1996:Q1
1.2714
1.2055
1996:Q2
1.2769
1.2011
1996:Q3
1.2825
1.2051
1996:Q4
1.2881
1.2003
1997:Q1
1.2939
1.2033
1997:Q2
1.2997
1.2041
1997:Q3
1.3056
1.2078
1997:Q4
1.3115
1.2166
1998:Q1
1.3176
1.2319
1998:Q2
1.3237
1.2489
1998:Q3
1.3299
1.2532
1998:Q4
1.3362
1.2553
1999:Q1
1.3426
1.2716
1999:Q2
1.3490
1.2819
1999:Q3
1.3556
1.2919
1999:Q4
1.3621
1.2884
2000:Q1
1.3688
1.3059
2000:Q2
1.3755
1.3066
2000:Q3
1.3824
1.3231
2000:Q4
1.3892
1.3348
2001:Q1
1.3962
1.3556
2001:Q2
1.4031
1.3666
2001:Q3
1.4102
1.3906
2001:Q4
1.4173
1.4055
2002:Q1
1.4245
1.4145
2002:Q2
1.4317
1.4213
2002:Q3
1.4389
1.4293
2002:Q4
1.4462
1.4489
2003:Q1
1.4536
1.4597
2003:Q2
1.4609
1.4716
2003:Q3
1.4684
1.4654
2003:Q4
1.4758
1.4677
2004:Q1
1.4833
1.4751
2004:Q2
1.4908
1.4847
2004:Q3
1.4983
1.4927
2004:Q4
1.5059
1.5095
2005:Q1
1.5134
1.5133
2005:Q2
1.5210
1.5346
2005:Q3
1.5286
1.5444
2005:Q4
1.5362
1.5640
2006:Q1
1.5438
1.5768
2006:Q2
1.5514
1.5988
2006:Q3
1.5590
1.6190
2006:Q4
1.5667
1.6390
2007:Q1
1.5743
1.6558
2007:Q2
1.5819
1.6711
2007:Q3
1.5895
1.6949
2007:Q4
1.5971
1.7134
2008:Q1
1.6046
1.7364
2008:Q2
1.6122
1.7329
1.6197
1.7427
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2008:Q3
2008:Q4
1.6273
1.7802
2009:Q1
1.6348
1.7972
2009:Q2
1.6423
1.7947
2009:Q3
1.6498
1.7727
2009:Q4
1.6573
1.7389
2010:Q1
1.6648
1.7135
2010:Q2
1.6722
1.6886
2010:Q3
1.6797
1.6699
2010:Q4
1.6871
1.6536
2011:Q1
1.6945
1.6472
2011:Q2
1.7020
1.6305
2011:Q3
1.7094
1.6176
2011:Q4
1.7168
1.6111
2012:Q1
1.7243
1.5992
2012:Q2
1.7317
1.6001
Note: Calculated using an HP filter. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): July 1990-March 1991, March 2001November 2001, and December 2007-June 2009.
Source: FOFA, NIPA, and staff calculations.
Top-right panel
Short Term Debt as Percent of Total Debt
Quarterly
Percent
Period
All firms
75th Percentile
1999:Q1
18.06
61.57
1999:Q2
17.99
63.63
1999:Q3
18.96
65.65
1999:Q4
18.63
65.85
2000:Q1
19.06
66.99
2000:Q2
19.57
68.67
2000:Q3
20.43
69.39
2000:Q4
19.94
70.57
2001:Q1
18.66
75.01
2001:Q2
18.02
78.70
2001:Q3
18.32
81.27
2001:Q4
18.93
77.52
2002:Q1
17.88
78.03
2002:Q2
16.97
77.94
2002:Q3
16.96
78.44
2002:Q4
16.31
75.42
2003:Q1
14.93
76.60
2003:Q2
13.77
76.38
2003:Q3
13.68
73.77
2003:Q4
12.82
70.52
2004:Q1
12.82
68.68
2004:Q2
13.16
70.63
2004:Q3
12.43
66.09
2004:Q4
12.54
61.76
2005:Q1
13.36
61.31
2005:Q2
13.12
61.71
2005:Q3
13.06
62.31
2005:Q4
13.82
60.45
2006:Q1
13.39
60.17
2006:Q2
13.83
62.50
2006:Q3
14.05
61.78
2006:Q4
13.25
62.30
2007:Q1
12.69
60.48
2007:Q2
12.99
62.47
2007:Q3
12.87
63.32
2007:Q4
12.89
61.45
2008:Q1
12.71
62.67
2008:Q2
12.92
66.67
2008:Q3
14.21
66.99
2008:Q4
13.75
67.18
2009:Q1
12.81
70.62
2009:Q2
11.00
72.34
10.61
69.39
9.53
65.44
2009:Q3
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2009:Q4
2010:Q1
10.61
68.63
2010:Q2
10.73
74.51
2010:Q3
10.64
75.56
2010:Q4
10.79
71.67
2011:Q1
11.30
71.55
2011:Q2
10.67
70.79
2011:Q3
11.32
70.38
2011:Q4
11.04
63.17
2012:Q1
11.38
60.94
2012:Q2
11.64
57.01
Note: Ratio of the sum of short-term debt and long-term debt due in one year to total debt.
Source: Compustat.
Middle-left panel
Expected Real Equity Return
Monthly
Percent
Period
Expected 10-year real equity return*
January 1990
7.57
February 1990
8.00
March 1990
8.10
April 1990
7.91
May 1990
7.71
June 1990
7.58
July 1990
7.67
August 1990
8.38
September 1990
9.07
October 1990
9.59
November 1990
8.86
December 1990
8.47
January 1991
9.01
February 1991
7.60
March 1991
7.53
April 1991
7.16
May 1991
7.78
June 1991
7.65
July 1991
7.51
August 1991
7.34
September 1991
7.47
October 1991
7.45
November 1991
7.33
December 1991
7.59
January 1992
7.02
February 1992
7.60
March 1992
7.81
April 1992
7.73
May 1992
7.84
June 1992
8.28
July 1992
8.17
August 1992
8.10
September 1992
8.05
October 1992
8.38
November 1992
7.98
December 1992
7.85
January 1993
7.93
February 1993
8.00
March 1993
7.78
April 1993
7.59
May 1993
7.59
June 1993
7.75
July 1993
7.94
August 1993
7.82
September 1993
7.73
October 1993
7.76
November 1993
7.73
December 1993
7.81
January
1994
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February 1994
7.62
7.73
March 1994
7.79
April 1994
8.23
May 1994
8.14
June 1994
8.00
July 1994
8.29
August 1994
8.08
September 1994
8.07
October 1994
8.16
November 1994
8.36
December 1994
8.64
January 1995
8.62
February 1995
8.43
March 1995
8.35
April 1995
8.12
May 1995
7.84
June 1995
7.64
July 1995
7.59
August 1995
7.54
September 1995
7.33
October 1995
7.43
November 1995
7.39
December 1995
7.07
January 1996
7.23
February 1996
6.55
March 1996
6.79
April 1996
6.76
May 1996
6.45
June 1996
6.55
July 1996
6.94
August 1996
6.53
September 1996
6.30
October 1996
6.07
November 1996
5.81
December 1996
5.92
January 1997
5.56
February 1997
5.14
March 1997
5.49
April 1997
5.98
May 1997
5.18
June 1997
4.59
July 1997
4.00
August 1997
4.29
September 1997
4.11
October 1997
4.29
November 1997
4.50
December 1997
4.36
January 1998
4.62
February 1998
4.03
March 1998
3.57
April 1998
3.40
May 1998
3.47
June 1998
3.59
July 1998
3.04
August 1998
3.67
September 1998
4.20
October 1998
4.49
November 1998
3.25
December 1998
3.08
January 1999
2.77
February 1999
3.09
March 1999
2.76
April 1999
2.58
May 1999
2.44
June 1999
2.66
July 1999
2.20
August 1999
2.67
September 1999
2.79
October 1999
3.10
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November
1999
2.31
December 1999
2.28
January 2000
2.19
February 2000
2.81
March 2000
2.83
April 2000
2.57
May 2000
2.64
June 2000
2.35
July 2000
2.20
August 2000
2.24
September 2000
2.26
October 2000
3.24
November 2000
2.85
December 2000
2.89
January 2001
3.08
February 2001
3.26
March 2001
4.22
April 2001
3.51
May 2001
3.11
June 2001
3.33
July 2001
3.40
August 2001
3.56
September 2001
4.90
October 2001
4.02
November 2001
3.54
December 2001
3.53
January 2002
3.96
February 2002
4.19
March 2002
4.15
April 2002
4.45
May 2002
4.84
June 2002
5.58
July 2002
6.62
August 2002
6.39
September 2002
6.83
October 2002
6.75
November 2002
6.52
December 2002
6.41
January 2003
6.01
February 2003
6.69
March 2003
6.58
April 2003
6.57
May 2003
6.05
June 2003
5.44
July 2003
5.62
August 2003
5.78
September 2003
5.47
October 2003
5.44
November 2003
5.60
December 2003
5.37
January 2004
5.01
February 2004
4.96
March 2004
5.28
April 2004
5.37
May 2004
5.90
June 2004
5.63
July 2004
5.89
August 2004
6.09
September 2004
5.88
October 2004
6.00
November 2004
5.58
December 2004
5.47
January 2005
5.74
February 2005
5.59
March 2005
5.89
April 2005
6.00
May 2005
5.99
June 2005
5.90
July 2005
5.87
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August
2005
6.06
September 2005
6.17
October 2005
6.54
November 2005
6.31
December 2005
5.99
January 2006
6.06
February 2006
6.13
March 2006
6.06
April 2006
6.06
May 2006
6.50
June 2006
6.94
July 2006
6.82
August 2006
6.66
September 2006
6.55
October 2006
6.26
November 2006
6.13
December 2006
6.10
January 2007
6.13
February 2007
6.07
March 2007
6.61
April 2007
6.08
May 2007
5.98
June 2007
6.14
July 2007
6.07
August 2007
7.06
September 2007
6.34
October 2007
6.30
November 2007
6.73
December 2007
6.75
January 2008
7.19
February 2008
7.35
March 2008
7.94
April 2008
7.65
May 2008
7.47
June 2008
8.12
July 2008
8.87
August 2008
8.44
September 2008
9.50
October 2008
11.51
November 2008
12.02
December 2008
10.44
January 2009
11.21
February 2009
11.11
March 2009
10.59
April 2009
9.88
May 2009
9.59
June 2009
9.60
July 2009
9.32
August 2009
8.69
September 2009
8.10
October 2009
8.21
November 2009
8.44
December 2009
8.43
January 2010
8.00
February 2010
8.79
March 2010
8.39
April 2010
8.22
May 2010
9.29
June 2010
9.38
July 2010
9.72
August 2010
9.90
September 2010
9.64
October 2010
9.31
November 2010
9.42
December 2010
9.02
January 2011
8.63
February 2011
8.21
March 2011
8.77
April 2011
8.33
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May 2011
8.24
June 2011
8.84
July 2011
8.47
August 2011
9.54
September 2011
9.59
October 2011
9.26
November 2011
9.11
December 2011
9.32
January 2012
8.76
February 2012
8.54
March 2012
8.26
April 2012
8.29
May 2012
8.71
June 2012
8.82
July 2012
8.54
August 2012
8.35
September 2012
8.06
October 2012
8.16
November 2012
8.88
* Staff estimate using a dividend discount model incorporating private sector earnings growth estimates. Return to table
Note: Also shown in the chart is another curve, expected real yield on 10-year Treasury (off-the-run 10-year Treasury yield less Philadelphia Fed 10-year expected inflation). The curve begins at
about 7 percent in 1985, generally decreases to about 5 by 1986, then decreases more gradually and fluctuates within a range of about 2-5 percent through 2002. It fluctuates within a range of
about 0-3 percent through 2011, and ends at about -1 percent in mid-2012.
Middle-right panel
House Price Overvaluation Measures
Quarterly
Percent
Period
FHFA
S&P/Case-Shiller National
CoreLogic
1990:Q1
3.76
6.93
8.45
1990:Q2
2.61
5.72
7.31
1990:Q3
1.08
3.33
5.32
1990:Q4
-0.45
1.52
3.56
1991:Q1
-0.70
-0.41
1.68
1991:Q2
-1.57
-0.80
1.66
1991:Q3
-2.23
-1.07
0.49
1991:Q4
-2.47
-1.76
-0.74
1992:Q1
-1.44
-2.07
-1.26
1992:Q2
-2.21
-2.38
-1.86
1992:Q3
-2.34
-3.25
-2.62
1992:Q4
-2.23
-3.96
-3.27
1993:Q1
-3.29
-4.69
-3.68
1993:Q2
-3.62
-5.71
-3.79
1993:Q3
-3.63
-5.60
-3.60
1993:Q4
-3.26
-5.41
-3.16
1994:Q1
-2.77
-4.79
-4.07
1994:Q2
-1.27
-3.76
-4.28
1994:Q3
-1.24
-4.18
-4.82
1994:Q4
-1.02
-4.10
-5.11
1995:Q1
-1.20
-4.56
-5.85
1995:Q2
-2.27
-5.09
-5.80
1995:Q3
-2.15
-5.08
-5.61
1995:Q4
-2.40
-5.34
-5.77
1996:Q1
-2.34
-5.54
-5.84
1996:Q2
-1.48
-5.05
-5.87
1996:Q3
-1.62
-5.14
-6.39
1996:Q4
-2.26
-5.83
-6.62
1997:Q1
-2.30
-5.27
-6.76
1997:Q2
-1.87
-4.93
-6.57
1997:Q3
-2.68
-5.31
-6.18
1997:Q4
-2.32
-4.61
-5.47
1998:Q1
-2.02
-3.92
-4.03
1998:Q2
-1.30
-2.79
-3.72
1998:Q3
-1.28
-2.09
-2.99
1998:Q4
-0.74
-1.41
-2.03
1999:Q1
0.33
0.00
-1.57
1999:Q2
1.23
1.13
-0.35
1999:Q3
2.58
2.92
0.75
1999:Q4
3.14
4.11
1.85
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2000:Q1
4.13
5.60
3.28
2000:Q2
5.13
7.51
5.13
2000:Q3
5.30
8.43
6.23
2000:Q4
5.36
9.21
7.15
2001:Q1
5.48
9.66
8.62
2001:Q2
6.07
10.67
8.94
2001:Q3
6.24
11.56
9.68
2001:Q4
6.21
11.46
10.16
2002:Q1
6.99
12.70
11.00
2002:Q2
7.94
14.50
12.85
2002:Q3
8.56
16.26
14.59
2002:Q4
9.46
17.87
15.40
2003:Q1
10.18
19.00
16.71
2003:Q2
10.82
20.16
18.08
2003:Q3
12.61
22.60
20.31
2003:Q4
14.07
25.26
22.62
2004:Q1
15.25
27.75
26.17
2004:Q2
17.57
31.02
29.38
2004:Q3
18.98
33.29
31.68
2004:Q4
20.51
35.95
34.29
2005:Q1
22.12
39.50
39.11
2005:Q2
23.84
42.17
41.67
2005:Q3
25.63
44.47
43.92
2005:Q4
27.29
46.71
45.12
2006:Q1
28.00
47.83
46.71
2006:Q2
28.12
46.56
44.37
2006:Q3
27.13
43.62
42.40
2006:Q4
26.08
42.30
41.36
2007:Q1
25.46
41.84
38.68
2007:Q2
24.54
38.39
34.96
2007:Q3
22.56
34.65
31.03
2007:Q4
19.42
29.44
26.55
2008:Q1
15.80
23.69
21.51
2008:Q2
12.66
18.28
16.14
2008:Q3
9.60
12.48
10.84
2008:Q4
5.15
5.40
4.28
2009:Q1
3.38
-0.42
-1.19
2009:Q2
1.54
-1.35
-1.33
2009:Q3
1.31
0.53
-0.63
2009:Q4
1.07
1.55
-0.19
2010:Q1
0.01
1.85
0.16
2010:Q2
-0.65
2.02
-0.50
2010:Q3
-2.92
-1.36
-3.39
2010:Q4
-4.45
-2.88
-5.10
2011:Q1
-7.15
-4.17
-7.03
2011:Q2
-8.51
-5.36
-7.93
2011:Q3
-9.14
-7.00
-8.94
2011:Q4
-10.28
-9.44
-11.23
2012:Q1
-10.25
-8.71
-9.29
2012:Q2
-9.02
-7.51
-7.85
2012:Q3
-8.61
-2.62
-7.15
Note: Overvaluation measured as deviation from long-run relationship between house prices and rents.
Bottom-left panel
Ten-Year Nominal Term Premiums
Daily
Date
Percent
2 January 1997
1.539
3 January 1997
1.526
6 January 1997
1.547
7 January 1997
1.567
8 January 1997
1.585
9 January 1997
1.537
10 January 1997
1.600
13 January 1997
1.598
14 January 1997
1.542
15 January 1997
1.541
16 January 1997
1.570
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17 January 1997
1.563
20 January 1997
ND
21 January 1997
1.531
22 January 1997
1.558
23 January 1997
1.575
24 January 1997
1.604
27 January 1997
1.632
28 January 1997
1.620
29 January 1997
1.614
30 January 1997
1.602
31 January 1997
1.539
3 February 1997
1.503
4 February 1997
1.487
5 February 1997
1.505
6 February 1997
1.509
7 February 1997
1.478
10 February 1997
1.468
11 February 1997
1.469
12 February 1997
ND
13 February 1997
1.425
14 February 1997
1.392
17 February 1997
ND
18 February 1997
1.403
19 February 1997
1.415
20 February 1997
1.471
21 February 1997
1.456
24 February 1997
1.475
25 February 1997
1.474
26 February 1997
1.573
27 February 1997
1.586
28 February 1997
1.574
3 March 1997
1.585
4 March 1997
1.605
5 March 1997
1.598
6 March 1997
1.617
7 March 1997
1.582
10 March 1997
1.581
11 March 1997
1.593
12 March 1997
1.612
13 March 1997
1.690
14 March 1997
1.681
17 March 1997
1.675
18 March 1997
1.677
19 March 1997
1.685
20 March 1997
1.672
21 March 1997
1.661
24 March 1997
1.643
25 March 1997
1.653
26 March 1997
1.694
27 March 1997
1.770
28 March 1997
ND
31 March 1997
1.796
1 April 1997
1.780
2 April 1997
1.769
3 April 1997
1.766
4 April 1997
1.802
7 April 1997
1.764
8 April 1997
1.778
9 April 1997
1.777
10 April 1997
1.774
11 April 1997
1.811
14 April 1997
1.808
15 April 1997
1.748
16 April 1997
1.756
17 April 1997
1.727
18 April 1997
1.719
21 April 1997
1.740
22 April 1997
1.719
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23 April
1997
1.756
24 April 1997
1.782
25 April 1997
1.791
28 April 1997
1.773
29 April 1997
1.697
30 April 1997
1.654
1 May 1997
1.628
2 May 1997
1.618
5 May 1997
1.610
6 May 1997
1.599
7 May 1997
1.663
8 May 1997
1.640
9 May 1997
1.619
12 May 1997
1.608
13 May 1997
1.647
14 May 1997
1.619
15 May 1997
1.607
16 May 1997
1.621
19 May 1997
1.619
20 May 1997
1.629
21 May 1997
1.666
22 May 1997
1.688
23 May 1997
1.642
26 May 1997
ND
27 May 1997
1.716
28 May 1997
1.711
29 May 1997
1.687
30 May 1997
1.637
2 June 1997
1.625
3 June 1997
1.608
4 June 1997
1.603
5 June 1997
1.606
6 June 1997
1.533
9 June 1997
1.564
10 June 1997
1.582
11 June 1997
1.573
12 June 1997
1.539
13 June 1997
1.504
16 June 1997
1.486
17 June 1997
1.502
18 June 1997
1.489
19 June 1997
1.490
20 June 1997
1.468
23 June 1997
1.490
24 June 1997
1.499
25 June 1997
1.536
26 June 1997
1.576
27 June 1997
1.572
30 June 1997
1.580
1 July 1997
1.528
2 July 1997
1.504
3 July 1997
1.432
4 July 1997
ND
7 July 1997
1.403
8 July 1997
1.408
9 July 1997
1.384
10 July 1997
1.388
11 July 1997
1.362
14 July 1997
1.371
15 July 1997
1.375
16 July 1997
1.335
17 July 1997
1.334
18 July 1997
1.369
21 July 1997
1.370
22 July 1997
1.296
23 July 1997
1.288
24 July 1997
1.293
25 July 1997
1.309
28 July 1997
1.297
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29 July
1997
1.245
30 July 1997
1.227
31 July 1997
1.194
1 August 1997
1.311
4 August 1997
1.328
5 August 1997
1.326
6 August 1997
1.316
7 August 1997
1.319
8 August 1997
1.432
11 August 1997
1.422
12 August 1997
1.452
13 August 1997
1.443
14 August 1997
1.386
15 August 1997
1.396
18 August 1997
1.362
19 August 1997
1.365
20 August 1997
1.375
21 August 1997
1.412
22 August 1997
1.471
25 August 1997
1.477
26 August 1997
1.464
27 August 1997
1.466
28 August 1997
1.410
29 August 1997
1.434
1 September 1997
ND
2 September 1997
1.417
3 September 1997
1.434
4 September 1997
1.438
5 September 1997
1.468
8 September 1997
1.440
9 September 1997
1.451
10 September 1997
1.473
11 September 1997
1.489
12 September 1997
1.423
15 September 1997
1.414
16 September 1997
1.290
17 September 1997
1.286
18 September 1997
1.301
19 September 1997
1.289
22 September 1997
1.276
23 September 1997
1.306
24 September 1997
1.283
25 September 1997
1.351
26 September 1997
1.335
29 September 1997
1.335
30 September 1997
1.334
1 October 1997
1.271
2 October 1997
1.256
3 October 1997
1.259
6 October 1997
1.224
7 October 1997
1.198
8 October 1997
1.291
9 October 1997
1.289
10 October 1997
1.331
13 October 1997
ND
14 October 1997
1.272
15 October 1997
1.293
16 October 1997
1.294
17 October 1997
1.340
20 October 1997
1.325
21 October 1997
1.307
22 October 1997
1.290
23 October 1997
1.237
24 October 1997
1.212
27 October 1997
1.173
28 October 1997
1.199
29 October 1997
1.156
30 October 1997
1.107
31 October 1997
1.097
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3 November
1997
1.129
4 November 1997
1.162
5 November 1997
1.164
6 November 1997
1.129
7 November 1997
1.128
10 November 1997
1.121
11 November 1997
ND
12 November 1997
1.117
13 November 1997
1.098
14 November 1997
1.096
17 November 1997
1.075
18 November 1997
1.069
19 November 1997
1.042
20 November 1997
1.058
21 November 1997
1.053
24 November 1997
1.071
25 November 1997
1.057
26 November 1997
1.058
27 November 1997
ND
28 November 1997
1.050
1 December 1997
1.052
2 December 1997
1.052
3 December 1997
1.040
4 December 1997
1.053
5 December 1997
1.089
8 December 1997
1.108
9 December 1997
1.109
10 December 1997
1.094
11 December 1997
1.048
12 December 1997
0.992
15 December 1997
1.017
16 December 1997
1.004
17 December 1997
1.019
18 December 1997
0.974
19 December 1997
0.949
22 December 1997
0.919
23 December 1997
0.929
24 December 1997
0.952
25 December 1997
ND
26 December 1997
0.950
29 December 1997
0.957
30 December 1997
0.989
31 December 1997
0.967
1 January 1998
ND
2 January 1998
0.908
5 January 1998
0.821
6 January 1998
0.820
7 January 1998
0.864
8 January 1998
0.832
9 January 1998
0.811
12 January 1998
0.804
13 January 1998
0.813
14 January 1998
0.843
15 January 1998
0.859
16 January 1998
0.884
19 January 1998
ND
20 January 1998
0.899
21 January 1998
0.873
22 January 1998
0.893
23 January 1998
0.981
26 January 1998
0.934
27 January 1998
0.963
28 January 1998
0.959
29 January 1998
0.875
30 January 1998
0.855
2 February 1998
0.882
3 February 1998
0.878
4 February 1998
0.887
5 February 1998
0.944
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
6 February
1998
0.927
9 February 1998
0.951
10 February 1998
0.937
11 February 1998
0.889
12 February 1998
0.896
13 February 1998
0.869
16 February 1998
ND
17 February 1998
0.836
18 February 1998
0.858
19 February 1998
0.871
20 February 1998
0.886
23 February 1998
0.915
24 February 1998
1.005
25 February 1998
0.937
26 February 1998
0.955
27 February 1998
0.942
2 March 1998
1.012
3 March 1998
1.060
4 March 1998
1.051
5 March 1998
1.088
6 March 1998
1.047
9 March 1998
1.011
10 March 1998
1.012
11 March 1998
0.983
12 March 1998
0.937
13 March 1998
0.948
16 March 1998
0.928
17 March 1998
0.928
18 March 1998
0.937
19 March 1998
0.937
20 March 1998
0.931
23 March 1998
0.931
24 March 1998
0.942
25 March 1998
0.985
26 March 1998
1.012
27 March 1998
1.015
30 March 1998
1.039
31 March 1998
0.998
1 April 1998
0.962
2 April 1998
0.927
3 April 1998
0.881
6 April 1998
0.898
7 April 1998
0.915
8 April 1998
0.946
9 April 1998
0.940
10 April 1998
ND
13 April 1998
0.972
14 April 1998
0.943
15 April 1998
0.933
16 April 1998
0.932
17 April 1998
0.940
20 April 1998
0.976
21 April 1998
1.001
22 April 1998
1.005
23 April 1998
1.009
24 April 1998
0.990
27 April 1998
1.079
28 April 1998
1.081
29 April 1998
1.090
30 April 1998
1.018
1 May 1998
0.997
4 May 1998
0.990
5 May 1998
1.008
6 May 1998
0.982
7 May 1998
0.988
8 May 1998
1.002
11 May 1998
1.048
12 May 1998
0.988
13 May 1998
0.961
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
14 May
1998
0.982
15 May 1998
0.983
18 May 1998
0.954
19 May 1998
0.967
20 May 1998
0.932
21 May 1998
0.953
22 May 1998
0.944
25 May 1998
ND
26 May 1998
0.909
27 May 1998
0.908
28 May 1998
0.914
29 May 1998
0.937
1 June 1998
0.925
2 June 1998
0.938
3 June 1998
0.946
4 June 1998
0.950
5 June 1998
0.941
8 June 1998
0.936
9 June 1998
0.931
10 June 1998
0.881
11 June 1998
0.840
12 June 1998
0.827
15 June 1998
0.804
16 June 1998
0.846
17 June 1998
0.909
18 June 1998
0.881
19 June 1998
0.858
22 June 1998
0.864
23 June 1998
0.832
24 June 1998
0.863
25 June 1998
0.865
26 June 1998
0.850
29 June 1998
0.882
30 June 1998
0.856
1 July 1998
0.858
2 July 1998
0.836
3 July 1998
ND
6 July 1998
0.823
7 July 1998
0.829
8 July 1998
0.837
9 July 1998
0.818
10 July 1998
0.824
13 July 1998
0.857
14 July 1998
0.872
15 July 1998
0.873
16 July 1998
0.883
17 July 1998
0.899
20 July 1998
0.865
21 July 1998
0.841
22 July 1998
0.849
23 July 1998
0.843
24 July 1998
0.851
27 July 1998
0.867
28 July 1998
0.896
29 July 1998
0.907
30 July 1998
0.888
31 July 1998
0.888
3 August 1998
0.848
4 August 1998
0.837
5 August 1998
0.841
6 August 1998
0.847
7 August 1998
0.816
10 August 1998
0.831
11 August 1998
0.809
12 August 1998
0.816
13 August 1998
0.831
14 August 1998
0.811
17 August 1998
0.801
18 August 1998
0.798
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
19 August
1998
0.806
20 August 1998
0.780
21 August 1998
0.738
24 August 1998
0.715
25 August 1998
0.677
26 August 1998
0.701
27 August 1998
0.634
28 August 1998
0.634
31 August 1998
0.604
1 September 1998
0.626
2 September 1998
0.644
3 September 1998
0.603
4 September 1998
0.585
7 September 1998
ND
8 September 1998
0.605
9 September 1998
0.546
10 September 1998
0.451
11 September 1998
0.478
14 September 1998
0.478
15 September 1998
0.502
16 September 1998
0.483
17 September 1998
0.438
18 September 1998
0.393
21 September 1998
0.379
22 September 1998
0.417
23 September 1998
0.421
24 September 1998
0.424
25 September 1998
0.411
28 September 1998
0.408
29 September 1998
0.388
30 September 1998
0.304
1 October 1998
0.247
2 October 1998
0.240
5 October 1998
0.162
6 October 1998
0.227
7 October 1998
0.331
8 October 1998
0.545
9 October 1998
0.714
12 October 1998
ND
13 October 1998
0.677
14 October 1998
0.552
15 October 1998
0.555
16 October 1998
0.516
19 October 1998
0.506
20 October 1998
0.558
21 October 1998
0.567
22 October 1998
0.577
23 October 1998
0.633
26 October 1998
0.589
27 October 1998
0.522
28 October 1998
0.465
29 October 1998
0.403
30 October 1998
0.455
2 November 1998
0.527
3 November 1998
0.515
4 November 1998
0.582
5 November 1998
0.570
6 November 1998
0.651
9 November 1998
0.599
10 November 1998
0.579
11 November 1998
ND
12 November 1998
0.565
13 November 1998
0.595
16 November 1998
0.616
17 November 1998
0.645
18 November 1998
0.619
19 November 1998
0.646
20 November 1998
0.609
23 November 1998
0.622
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
24 November
1998
0.615
25 November 1998
0.610
26 November 1998
ND
27 November 1998
0.592
30 November 1998
0.511
1 December 1998
0.478
2 December 1998
0.413
3 December 1998
0.413
4 December 1998
0.459
7 December 1998
0.515
8 December 1998
0.460
9 December 1998
0.424
10 December 1998
0.393
11 December 1998
0.450
14 December 1998
0.425
15 December 1998
0.465
16 December 1998
0.435
17 December 1998
0.443
18 December 1998
0.447
21 December 1998
0.494
22 December 1998
0.535
23 December 1998
0.609
24 December 1998
0.663
25 December 1998
ND
28 December 1998
0.603
29 December 1998
0.556
30 December 1998
0.550
31 December 1998
0.566
1 January 1999
ND
4 January 1999
0.550
5 January 1999
0.584
6 January 1999
0.558
7 January 1999
0.616
8 January 1999
0.679
11 January 1999
0.703
12 January 1999
0.666
13 January 1999
0.627
14 January 1999
0.591
15 January 1999
0.602
18 January 1999
ND
19 January 1999
0.630
20 January 1999
0.652
21 January 1999
0.611
22 January 1999
0.562
25 January 1999
0.571
26 January 1999
0.580
27 January 1999
0.565
28 January 1999
0.545
29 January 1999
0.534
1 February 1999
0.606
2 February 1999
0.632
3 February 1999
0.673
4 February 1999
0.730
5 February 1999
0.756
8 February 1999
0.741
9 February 1999
0.719
10 February 1999
0.731
11 February 1999
0.747
12 February 1999
0.855
15 February 1999
ND
16 February 1999
0.824
17 February 1999
0.784
18 February 1999
0.833
19 February 1999
0.844
22 February 1999
0.819
23 February 1999
0.861
24 February 1999
0.906
25 February 1999
0.995
26 February 1999
0.961
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
1 March
1999
1.018
2 March 1999
0.977
3 March 1999
1.017
4 March 1999
1.042
5 March 1999
1.004
8 March 1999
0.978
9 March 1999
0.930
10 March 1999
0.950
11 March 1999
0.950
12 March 1999
0.924
15 March 1999
0.905
16 March 1999
0.871
17 March 1999
0.896
18 March 1999
0.887
19 March 1999
0.933
22 March 1999
0.964
23 March 1999
0.985
24 March 1999
0.956
25 March 1999
0.986
26 March 1999
0.999
29 March 1999
1.040
30 March 1999
0.993
31 March 1999
1.015
1 April 1999
1.039
2 April 1999
ND
5 April 1999
0.966
6 April 1999
0.907
7 April 1999
0.911
8 April 1999
0.833
9 April 1999
0.850
12 April 1999
0.832
13 April 1999
0.880
14 April 1999
0.896
15 April 1999
0.924
16 April 1999
0.946
19 April 1999
0.909
20 April 1999
0.896
21 April 1999
0.901
22 April 1999
0.966
23 April 1999
0.955
26 April 1999
0.936
27 April 1999
0.930
28 April 1999
0.938
29 April 1999
0.885
30 April 1999
0.994
3 May 1999
1.006
4 May 1999
1.038
5 May 1999
1.021
6 May 1999
1.096
7 May 1999
1.133
10 May 1999
1.116
11 May 1999
1.149
12 May 1999
1.132
13 May 1999
1.051
14 May 1999
1.178
17 May 1999
1.209
18 May 1999
1.221
19 May 1999
1.184
20 May 1999
1.200
21 May 1999
1.155
24 May 1999
1.138
25 May 1999
1.137
26 May 1999
1.178
27 May 1999
1.216
28 May 1999
ND
31 May 1999
ND
1 June 1999
1.316
2 June 1999
1.306
3 June 1999
1.299
Loading
4 June[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
1999
1.306
7 June 1999
1.297
8 June 1999
1.306
9 June 1999
1.325
10 June 1999
1.347
11 June 1999
1.424
14 June 1999
1.387
15 June 1999
1.382
16 June 1999
1.369
17 June 1999
1.270
18 June 1999
1.292
21 June 1999
1.329
22 June 1999
1.355
23 June 1999
1.402
24 June 1999
1.428
25 June 1999
1.404
28 June 1999
1.354
29 June 1999
1.321
30 June 1999
1.256
1 July 1999
1.283
2 July 1999
1.283
5 July 1999
ND
6 July 1999
1.338
7 July 1999
1.393
8 July 1999
1.351
9 July 1999
1.355
12 July 1999
ND
13 July 1999
1.269
14 July 1999
1.293
15 July 1999
1.286
16 July 1999
1.261
19 July 1999
1.250
20 July 1999
1.252
21 July 1999
ND
22 July 1999
1.344
23 July 1999
1.379
26 July 1999
1.383
27 July 1999
1.347
28 July 1999
1.337
29 July 1999
1.393
30 July 1999
1.410
2 August 1999
1.399
3 August 1999
1.409
4 August 1999
1.408
5 August 1999
1.361
6 August 1999
1.457
9 August 1999
1.512
10 August 1999
1.536
11 August 1999
1.508
12 August 1999
1.527
13 August 1999
1.431
16 August 1999
1.414
17 August 1999
1.338
18 August 1999
1.338
19 August 1999
1.361
20 August 1999
1.350
23 August 1999
1.332
24 August 1999
1.299
25 August 1999
1.218
26 August 1999
1.227
27 August 1999
1.288
30 August 1999
1.357
31 August 1999
1.375
1 September 1999
1.380
2 September 1999
1.415
3 September 1999
1.333
6 September 1999
ND
7 September 1999
1.377
8 September 1999
1.361
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
9 September
1999
1.397
10 September 1999
1.345
13 September 1999
1.359
14 September 1999
1.401
15 September 1999
1.388
16 September 1999
1.358
17 September 1999
1.329
20 September 1999
1.361
21 September 1999
1.380
22 September 1999
1.371
23 September 1999
1.318
24 September 1999
1.254
27 September 1999
1.305
28 September 1999
1.373
29 September 1999
1.433
30 September 1999
1.378
1 October 1999
1.446
4 October 1999
1.406
5 October 1999
1.455
6 October 1999
1.461
7 October 1999
1.465
8 October 1999
1.463
11 October 1999
ND
12 October 1999
1.479
13 October 1999
1.515
14 October 1999
1.553
15 October 1999
1.500
18 October 1999
1.507
19 October 1999
1.534
20 October 1999
1.530
21 October 1999
1.547
22 October 1999
1.539
25 October 1999
1.539
26 October 1999
1.542
27 October 1999
1.497
28 October 1999
1.432
29 October 1999
1.347
1 November 1999
1.369
2 November 1999
1.340
3 November 1999
1.323
4 November 1999
1.282
5 November 1999
1.244
8 November 1999
1.249
9 November 1999
1.251
10 November 1999
1.263
11 November 1999
ND
12 November 1999
1.215
15 November 1999
1.208
16 November 1999
1.217
17 November 1999
1.283
18 November 1999
1.310
19 November 1999
1.312
22 November 1999
1.327
23 November 1999
1.317
24 November 1999
1.304
25 November 1999
ND
26 November 1999
1.321
29 November 1999
1.368
30 November 1999
1.345
1 December 1999
1.372
2 December 1999
1.388
3 December 1999
1.351
6 December 1999
1.324
7 December 1999
1.287
8 December 1999
1.312
9 December 1999
1.300
10 December 1999
1.233
13 December 1999
1.231
14 December 1999
1.304
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
15 December
1999
1.333
16 December 1999
1.370
17 December 1999
1.376
20 December 1999
1.415
21 December 1999
1.427
22 December 1999
1.440
23 December 1999
1.474
24 December 1999
ND
27 December 1999
1.472
28 December 1999
1.503
29 December 1999
1.490
30 December 1999
1.488
31 December 1999
1.518
3 January 2000
1.566
4 January 2000
1.520
5 January 2000
1.605
6 January 2000
1.574
7 January 2000
1.547
10 January 2000
1.578
11 January 2000
1.641
12 January 2000
1.673
13 January 2000
1.603
14 January 2000
1.629
17 January 2000
ND
18 January 2000
1.671
19 January 2000
1.636
20 January 2000
1.659
21 January 2000
1.652
24 January 2000
1.575
25 January 2000
1.596
26 January 2000
1.584
27 January 2000
1.571
28 January 2000
1.534
31 January 2000
1.546
1 February 2000
1.527
2 February 2000
1.520
3 February 2000
1.460
4 February 2000
1.479
7 February 2000
1.565
8 February 2000
1.505
9 February 2000
1.556
10 February 2000
1.623
11 February 2000
1.587
14 February 2000
1.517
15 February 2000
1.533
16 February 2000
1.549
17 February 2000
1.553
18 February 2000
1.484
21 February 2000
ND
22 February 2000
1.402
23 February 2000
1.450
24 February 2000
1.410
25 February 2000
1.421
28 February 2000
1.427
29 February 2000
1.445
1 March 2000
1.422
2 March 2000
1.419
3 March 2000
1.413
6 March 2000
1.426
7 March 2000
1.421
8 March 2000
1.409
9 March 2000
1.386
10 March 2000
1.406
13 March 2000
1.385
14 March 2000
1.342
15 March 2000
1.311
16 March 2000
1.287
17 March 2000
1.237
20 March 2000
1.232
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
21 March
2000
1.197
22 March 2000
1.207
23 March 2000
1.168
24 March 2000
1.238
27 March 2000
1.237
28 March 2000
1.214
29 March 2000
1.212
30 March 2000
1.128
31 March 2000
1.100
3 April 2000
1.088
4 April 2000
1.025
5 April 2000
1.027
6 April 2000
1.042
7 April 2000
0.998
10 April 2000
0.978
11 April 2000
1.054
12 April 2000
1.130
13 April 2000
1.089
14 April 2000
1.049
17 April 2000
1.179
18 April 2000
1.193
19 April 2000
1.130
20 April 2000
1.118
21 April 2000
ND
24 April 2000
1.128
25 April 2000
1.222
26 April 2000
1.222
27 April 2000
1.269
28 April 2000
1.248
1 May 2000
1.270
2 May 2000
1.294
3 May 2000
1.354
4 May 2000
1.382
5 May 2000
1.394
8 May 2000
1.424
9 May 2000
1.386
10 May 2000
1.323
11 May 2000
1.293
12 May 2000
1.357
15 May 2000
1.322
16 May 2000
1.296
17 May 2000
1.345
18 May 2000
1.425
19 May 2000
1.398
22 May 2000
1.344
23 May 2000
1.338
24 May 2000
1.366
25 May 2000
1.314
26 May 2000
1.255
29 May 2000
ND
30 May 2000
1.290
31 May 2000
1.230
1 June 2000
1.183
2 June 2000
1.150
5 June 2000
1.126
6 June 2000
1.132
7 June 2000
1.112
8 June 2000
1.110
9 June 2000
1.113
12 June 2000
1.091
13 June 2000
1.100
14 June 2000
1.089
15 June 2000
1.081
16 June 2000
1.048
19 June 2000
1.059
20 June 2000
1.073
21 June 2000
1.133
22 June 2000
1.140
23 June 2000
1.180
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
26 June
2000
1.121
27 June 2000
1.106
28 June 2000
1.124
29 June 2000
1.071
30 June 2000
1.051
3 July 2000
1.033
4 July 2000
ND
5 July 2000
1.017
6 July 2000
1.071
7 July 2000
1.016
10 July 2000
1.024
11 July 2000
1.036
12 July 2000
1.054
13 July 2000
0.996
14 July 2000
1.056
17 July 2000
1.103
18 July 2000
1.092
19 July 2000
1.095
20 July 2000
0.992
21 July 2000
0.983
24 July 2000
0.997
25 July 2000
0.993
26 July 2000
0.987
27 July 2000
0.961
28 July 2000
0.981
31 July 2000
0.970
1 August 2000
0.931
2 August 2000
0.916
3 August 2000
0.897
4 August 2000
0.885
7 August 2000
0.920
8 August 2000
0.885
9 August 2000
0.875
10 August 2000
0.843
11 August 2000
0.874
14 August 2000
0.860
15 August 2000
0.876
16 August 2000
0.894
17 August 2000
0.885
18 August 2000
0.858
21 August 2000
0.862
22 August 2000
0.862
23 August 2000
0.815
24 August 2000
0.807
25 August 2000
0.803
28 August 2000
0.824
29 August 2000
0.861
30 August 2000
0.858
31 August 2000
0.805
1 September 2000
0.775
4 September 2000
ND
5 September 2000
0.783
6 September 2000
0.824
7 September 2000
0.851
8 September 2000
0.842
11 September 2000
0.870
12 September 2000
0.884
13 September 2000
0.854
14 September 2000
0.887
15 September 2000
0.901
18 September 2000
0.921
19 September 2000
0.901
20 September 2000
0.922
21 September 2000
0.908
22 September 2000
0.876
25 September 2000
0.866
26 September 2000
0.848
27 September 2000
0.850
28 September 2000
0.829
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
29 September
2000
0.826
2 October 2000
0.833
3 October 2000
0.852
4 October 2000
0.858
5 October 2000
0.839
6 October 2000
0.815
9 October 2000
ND
10 October 2000
0.798
11 October 2000
0.778
12 October 2000
0.761
13 October 2000
0.766
16 October 2000
0.756
17 October 2000
0.718
18 October 2000
0.703
19 October 2000
0.690
20 October 2000
0.668
23 October 2000
0.625
24 October 2000
0.652
25 October 2000
0.683
26 October 2000
0.681
27 October 2000
0.691
30 October 2000
0.705
31 October 2000
0.744
1 November 2000
0.730
2 November 2000
0.723
3 November 2000
0.786
6 November 2000
0.804
7 November 2000
0.806
8 November 2000
0.800
9 November 2000
0.765
10 November 2000
0.769
13 November 2000
0.742
14 November 2000
0.719
15 November 2000
0.696
16 November 2000
0.679
17 November 2000
0.699
20 November 2000
0.686
21 November 2000
0.655
22 November 2000
0.617
23 November 2000
ND
24 November 2000
0.618
27 November 2000
0.636
28 November 2000
0.604
29 November 2000
0.589
30 November 2000
0.545
1 December 2000
0.580
4 December 2000
0.603
5 December 2000
0.561
6 December 2000
0.498
7 December 2000
0.492
8 December 2000
0.523
11 December 2000
0.524
12 December 2000
0.516
13 December 2000
0.469
14 December 2000
0.426
15 December 2000
0.413
18 December 2000
0.405
19 December 2000
0.421
20 December 2000
0.398
21 December 2000
0.403
22 December 2000
0.407
25 December 2000
ND
26 December 2000
0.420
27 December 2000
0.460
28 December 2000
0.467
29 December 2000
0.474
1 January 2001
ND
2 January 2001
0.378
3 January 2001
0.585
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
4 January
2001
0.576
5 January 2001
0.557
8 January 2001
0.562
9 January 2001
0.568
10 January 2001
0.621
11 January 2001
0.652
12 January 2001
0.702
15 January 2001
ND
16 January 2001
0.681
17 January 2001
0.634
18 January 2001
0.608
19 January 2001
0.678
22 January 2001
0.714
23 January 2001
0.751
24 January 2001
0.773
25 January 2001
0.749
26 January 2001
0.769
29 January 2001
0.799
30 January 2001
0.747
31 January 2001
0.746
1 February 2001
0.685
2 February 2001
0.709
5 February 2001
0.702
6 February 2001
0.727
7 February 2001
0.721
8 February 2001
0.726
9 February 2001
0.675
12 February 2001
0.703
13 February 2001
0.700
14 February 2001
0.729
15 February 2001
0.774
16 February 2001
0.747
19 February 2001
ND
20 February 2001
0.743
21 February 2001
0.773
22 February 2001
0.798
23 February 2001
0.787
26 February 2001
0.769
27 February 2001
0.694
28 February 2001
0.669
1 March 2001
0.628
2 March 2001
0.700
5 March 2001
0.714
6 March 2001
0.733
7 March 2001
0.692
8 March 2001
0.681
9 March 2001
0.714
12 March 2001
0.704
13 March 2001
0.732
14 March 2001
0.688
15 March 2001
0.692
16 March 2001
0.667
19 March 2001
0.692
20 March 2001
0.682
21 March 2001
0.679
22 March 2001
0.652
23 March 2001
0.697
26 March 2001
0.752
27 March 2001
0.850
28 March 2001
0.862
29 March 2001
0.884
30 March 2001
0.852
2 April 2001
0.864
3 April 2001
0.857
4 April 2001
0.864
5 April 2001
0.886
6 April 2001
0.838
9 April 2001
0.865
10 April 2001
0.946
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
11 April
2001
0.964
12 April 2001
0.989
13 April 2001
ND
16 April 2001
1.047
17 April 2001
1.023
18 April 2001
1.015
19 April 2001
1.127
20 April 2001
1.159
23 April 2001
1.116
24 April 2001
1.127
25 April 2001
1.152
26 April 2001
1.100
27 April 2001
1.188
30 April 2001
1.183
1 May 2001
1.160
2 May 2001
1.149
3 May 2001
1.097
4 May 2001
1.111
7 May 2001
1.128
8 May 2001
1.150
9 May 2001
1.124
10 May 2001
1.201
11 May 2001
1.323
14 May 2001
1.307
15 May 2001
1.356
16 May 2001
1.356
17 May 2001
1.330
18 May 2001
1.309
21 May 2001
1.303
22 May 2001
1.316
23 May 2001
1.329
24 May 2001
1.392
25 May 2001
1.401
28 May 2001
ND
29 May 2001
1.417
30 May 2001
1.415
31 May 2001
1.355
1 June 2001
1.319
4 June 2001
1.303
5 June 2001
1.270
6 June 2001
1.264
7 June 2001
1.305
8 June 2001
1.320
11 June 2001
1.288
12 June 2001
1.257
13 June 2001
1.262
14 June 2001
1.241
15 June 2001
1.254
18 June 2001
1.261
19 June 2001
1.252
20 June 2001
1.245
21 June 2001
1.230
22 June 2001
1.192
25 June 2001
1.200
26 June 2001
1.248
27 June 2001
1.245
28 June 2001
1.299
29 June 2001
1.351
2 July 2001
1.304
3 July 2001
1.324
4 July 2001
ND
5 July 2001
1.360
6 July 2001
1.346
9 July 2001
1.310
10 July 2001
1.283
11 July 2001
1.284
12 July 2001
1.256
13 July 2001
1.246
16 July 2001
1.209
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
17 July
2001
1.206
18 July 2001
1.156
19 July 2001
1.160
20 July 2001
1.174
23 July 2001
1.154
24 July 2001
1.139
25 July 2001
1.188
26 July 2001
1.183
27 July 2001
1.146
30 July 2001
1.130
31 July 2001
1.108
1 August 2001
1.135
2 August 2001
1.175
3 August 2001
1.197
6 August 2001
1.198
7 August 2001
1.199
8 August 2001
1.135
9 August 2001
1.173
10 August 2001
1.150
13 August 2001
1.139
14 August 2001
1.131
15 August 2001
1.141
16 August 2001
1.121
17 August 2001
1.061
20 August 2001
1.081
21 August 2001
1.074
22 August 2001
1.076
23 August 2001
1.067
24 August 2001
1.092
27 August 2001
1.099
28 August 2001
1.045
29 August 2001
1.003
30 August 2001
1.033
31 August 2001
1.047
3 September 2001
ND
4 September 2001
1.128
5 September 2001
1.128
6 September 2001
1.074
7 September 2001
1.059
10 September 2001
1.096
11 September 2001
ND
12 September 2001
ND
13 September 2001
1.043
14 September 2001
1.046
17 September 2001
1.062
18 September 2001
1.161
19 September 2001
1.179
20 September 2001
1.221
21 September 2001
1.200
24 September 2001
1.213
25 September 2001
1.218
26 September 2001
1.173
27 September 2001
1.134
28 September 2001
1.144
1 October 2001
1.123
2 October 2001
1.128
3 October 2001
1.113
4 October 2001
1.127
5 October 2001
1.129
8 October 2001
ND
9 October 2001
1.196
10 October 2001
1.172
11 October 2001
1.221
12 October 2001
1.233
15 October 2001
1.183
16 October 2001
1.159
17 October 2001
1.153
18 October 2001
1.170
19 October 2001
1.201
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
22 October
2001
1.204
23 October 2001
1.220
24 October 2001
1.193
25 October 2001
1.177
26 October 2001
1.162
29 October 2001
1.145
30 October 2001
1.120
31 October 2001
1.031
1 November 2001
0.986
2 November 2001
1.116
5 November 2001
1.072
6 November 2001
1.080
7 November 2001
1.020
8 November 2001
1.083
9 November 2001
1.109
12 November 2001
ND
13 November 2001
1.154
14 November 2001
1.230
15 November 2001
1.385
16 November 2001
1.479
19 November 2001
1.432
20 November 2001
1.493
21 November 2001
1.566
22 November 2001
ND
23 November 2001
1.605
26 November 2001
1.617
27 November 2001
1.623
28 November 2001
1.608
29 November 2001
1.513
30 November 2001
1.516
3 December 2001
1.482
4 December 2001
1.447
5 December 2001
1.583
6 December 2001
1.685
7 December 2001
1.836
10 December 2001
1.840
11 December 2001
1.817
12 December 2001
1.735
13 December 2001
1.792
14 December 2001
1.864
17 December 2001
1.880
18 December 2001
1.822
19 December 2001
1.749
20 December 2001
1.757
21 December 2001
1.781
24 December 2001
1.819
25 December 2001
ND
26 December 2001
1.843
27 December 2001
1.791
28 December 2001
1.824
31 December 2001
1.762
1 January 2002
ND
2 January 2002
1.844
3 January 2002
1.813
4 January 2002
1.841
7 January 2002
1.773
8 January 2002
1.774
9 January 2002
1.778
10 January 2002
1.687
11 January 2002
1.671
14 January 2002
1.665
15 January 2002
1.626
16 January 2002
1.621
17 January 2002
1.678
18 January 2002
1.643
21 January 2002
ND
22 January 2002
1.652
23 January 2002
1.715
24 January 2002
1.702
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
25 January
2002
1.729
28 January 2002
1.737
29 January 2002
1.666
30 January 2002
1.657
31 January 2002
1.677
1 February 2002
1.652
4 February 2002
1.599
5 February 2002
1.580
6 February 2002
1.623
7 February 2002
1.643
8 February 2002
1.612
11 February 2002
1.617
12 February 2002
1.654
13 February 2002
1.682
14 February 2002
1.633
15 February 2002
1.587
18 February 2002
ND
19 February 2002
1.599
20 February 2002
1.589
21 February 2002
1.582
22 February 2002
1.549
25 February 2002
1.554
26 February 2002
1.608
27 February 2002
1.552
28 February 2002
1.576
1 March 2002
1.643
4 March 2002
1.663
5 March 2002
1.665
6 March 2002
1.703
7 March 2002
1.811
8 March 2002
1.863
11 March 2002
1.870
12 March 2002
1.864
13 March 2002
1.846
14 March 2002
1.919
15 March 2002
1.873
18 March 2002
1.842
19 March 2002
1.864
20 March 2002
1.909
21 March 2002
1.903
22 March 2002
1.910
25 March 2002
1.901
26 March 2002
1.869
27 March 2002
1.879
28 March 2002
1.924
29 March 2002
ND
1 April 2002
1.921
2 April 2002
1.873
3 April 2002
1.842
4 April 2002
1.817
5 April 2002
1.776
8 April 2002
1.807
9 April 2002
1.785
10 April 2002
1.805
11 April 2002
1.785
12 April 2002
1.755
15 April 2002
1.734
16 April 2002
1.762
17 April 2002
1.808
18 April 2002
1.804
19 April 2002
1.789
22 April 2002
1.777
23 April 2002
1.767
24 April 2002
1.723
25 April 2002
1.713
26 April 2002
1.690
29 April 2002
1.717
30 April 2002
1.707
1 May 2002
1.677
Loading
2 May[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
2002
1.708
3 May 2002
1.676
6 May 2002
1.695
7 May 2002
1.694
8 May 2002
1.770
9 May 2002
1.751
10 May 2002
1.715
13 May 2002
1.766
14 May 2002
1.810
15 May 2002
1.791
16 May 2002
1.751
17 May 2002
1.777
20 May 2002
1.733
21 May 2002
1.706
22 May 2002
1.677
23 May 2002
1.689
24 May 2002
1.682
27 May 2002
ND
28 May 2002
1.671
29 May 2002
1.637
30 May 2002
1.605
31 May 2002
1.607
3 June 2002
1.595
4 June 2002
1.586
5 June 2002
1.609
6 June 2002
1.586
7 June 2002
1.632
10 June 2002
1.604
11 June 2002
1.576
12 June 2002
1.552
13 June 2002
1.526
14 June 2002
1.461
17 June 2002
1.492
18 June 2002
1.489
19 June 2002
1.424
20 June 2002
1.468
21 June 2002
1.431
24 June 2002
1.474
25 June 2002
1.492
26 June 2002
1.421
27 June 2002
1.484
28 June 2002
1.495
1 July 2002
1.483
2 July 2002
1.438
3 July 2002
1.441
4 July 2002
ND
5 July 2002
1.508
8 July 2002
1.477
9 July 2002
1.429
10 July 2002
1.352
11 July 2002
1.342
12 July 2002
1.317
15 July 2002
1.346
16 July 2002
1.396
17 July 2002
1.361
18 July 2002
1.321
19 July 2002
1.282
22 July 2002
1.203
23 July 2002
1.178
24 July 2002
1.180
25 July 2002
1.141
26 July 2002
1.147
29 July 2002
1.251
30 July 2002
1.271
31 July 2002
1.189
1 August 2002
1.162
2 August 2002
1.066
5 August 2002
1.034
6 August 2002
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
7 August
2002
1.113
1.079
8 August 2002
1.109
9 August 2002
1.016
12 August 2002
0.978
13 August 2002
0.931
14 August 2002
0.901
15 August 2002
0.970
16 August 2002
1.079
19 August 2002
1.069
20 August 2002
0.990
21 August 2002
0.999
22 August 2002
1.044
23 August 2002
0.997
26 August 2002
0.969
27 August 2002
1.022
28 August 2002
0.977
29 August 2002
0.928
30 August 2002
0.908
2 September 2002
ND
3 September 2002
0.791
4 September 2002
0.770
5 September 2002
0.742
6 September 2002
0.823
9 September 2002
0.817
10 September 2002
0.795
11 September 2002
0.842
12 September 2002
0.779
13 September 2002
0.733
16 September 2002
0.714
17 September 2002
0.685
18 September 2002
0.673
19 September 2002
0.645
20 September 2002
0.645
23 September 2002
0.561
24 September 2002
0.550
25 September 2002
0.622
26 September 2002
0.651
27 September 2002
0.603
30 September 2002
0.563
1 October 2002
0.620
2 October 2002
0.619
3 October 2002
0.615
4 October 2002
0.588
7 October 2002
0.551
8 October 2002
0.553
9 October 2002
0.529
10 October 2002
0.567
11 October 2002
0.675
14 October 2002
ND
15 October 2002
0.823
16 October 2002
0.842
17 October 2002
0.912
18 October 2002
0.898
21 October 2002
0.955
22 October 2002
0.979
23 October 2002
0.971
24 October 2002
0.915
25 October 2002
0.887
28 October 2002
0.881
29 October 2002
0.791
30 October 2002
0.817
31 October 2002
0.783
1 November 2002
0.845
4 November 2002
0.894
5 November 2002
0.926
6 November 2002
0.935
7 November 2002
0.804
8 November 2002
0.788
11 November 2002
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
12 November
2002
ND
0.791
13 November 2002
0.780
14 November 2002
0.911
15 November 2002
0.936
18 November 2002
0.915
19 November 2002
0.892
20 November 2002
0.981
21 November 2002
1.035
22 November 2002
1.060
25 November 2002
1.065
26 November 2002
0.990
27 November 2002
1.137
28 November 2002
ND
29 November 2002
1.107
2 December 2002
1.120
3 December 2002
1.130
4 December 2002
1.087
5 December 2002
1.046
6 December 2002
1.020
9 December 2002
0.974
10 December 2002
0.962
11 December 2002
0.924
12 December 2002
0.927
13 December 2002
0.965
16 December 2002
1.010
17 December 2002
1.001
18 December 2002
0.952
19 December 2002
0.872
20 December 2002
0.869
23 December 2002
0.878
24 December 2002
0.864
25 December 2002
ND
26 December 2002
0.844
27 December 2002
0.775
30 December 2002
0.749
31 December 2002
0.764
1 January 2003
ND
2 January 2003
0.941
3 January 2003
0.931
6 January 2003
0.962
7 January 2003
0.942
8 January 2003
0.922
9 January 2003
1.064
10 January 2003
1.066
13 January 2003
1.038
14 January 2003
0.998
15 January 2003
0.993
16 January 2003
0.999
17 January 2003
0.957
20 January 2003
ND
21 January 2003
0.922
22 January 2003
0.871
23 January 2003
0.891
24 January 2003
0.859
27 January 2003
0.895
28 January 2003
0.912
29 January 2003
0.958
30 January 2003
0.931
31 January 2003
0.917
3 February 2003
0.934
4 February 2003
0.902
5 February 2003
0.958
6 February 2003
0.921
7 February 2003
0.910
10 February 2003
0.932
11 February 2003
0.922
12 February 2003
0.873
13 February 2003
0.826
14 February 2003
0.869
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
17 February
2003
ND
18 February 2003
0.854
19 February 2003
0.812
20 February 2003
0.777
21 February 2003
0.807
24 February 2003
0.777
25 February 2003
0.739
26 February 2003
0.713
27 February 2003
0.701
28 February 2003
0.662
3 March 2003
0.632
4 March 2003
0.613
5 March 2003
0.596
6 March 2003
0.627
7 March 2003
0.613
10 March 2003
0.589
11 March 2003
0.600
12 March 2003
0.602
13 March 2003
0.708
14 March 2003
0.698
17 March 2003
0.766
18 March 2003
0.829
19 March 2003
0.892
20 March 2003
0.917
21 March 2003
0.990
24 March 2003
0.908
25 March 2003
0.895
26 March 2003
0.889
27 March 2003
0.880
28 March 2003
0.859
31 March 2003
0.786
1 April 2003
0.796
2 April 2003
0.874
3 April 2003
0.872
4 April 2003
0.892
7 April 2003
0.931
8 April 2003
0.876
9 April 2003
0.856
10 April 2003
0.852
11 April 2003
0.880
14 April 2003
0.905
15 April 2003
0.864
16 April 2003
0.857
17 April 2003
0.873
18 April 2003
ND
21 April 2003
0.895
22 April 2003
0.900
23 April 2003
0.907
24 April 2003
0.844
25 April 2003
0.829
28 April 2003
0.829
29 April 2003
0.855
30 April 2003
0.820
1 May 2003
0.806
2 May 2003
0.842
5 May 2003
0.822
6 May 2003
0.764
7 May 2003
0.649
8 May 2003
0.628
9 May 2003
0.619
12 May 2003
0.587
13 May 2003
0.572
14 May 2003
0.506
15 May 2003
0.510
16 May 2003
0.477
19 May 2003
0.462
20 May 2003
0.407
21 May 2003
0.405
22 May 2003
0.369
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
23 May
2003
0.366
26 May 2003
ND
27 May 2003
0.418
28 May 2003
0.414
29 May 2003
0.348
30 May 2003
0.353
2 June 2003
0.407
3 June 2003
0.349
4 June 2003
0.314
5 June 2003
0.353
6 June 2003
0.386
9 June 2003
0.334
10 June 2003
0.272
11 June 2003
0.287
12 June 2003
0.273
13 June 2003
0.237
16 June 2003
0.284
17 June 2003
0.363
18 June 2003
0.449
19 June 2003
0.447
20 June 2003
0.474
23 June 2003
0.411
24 June 2003
0.385
25 June 2003
0.430
26 June 2003
0.538
27 June 2003
0.580
30 June 2003
0.549
1 July 2003
0.561
2 July 2003
0.560
3 July 2003
0.647
4 July 2003
ND
7 July 2003
0.700
8 July 2003
0.710
9 July 2003
0.691
10 July 2003
0.673
11 July 2003
0.639
14 July 2003
0.685
15 July 2003
0.852
16 July 2003
0.887
17 July 2003
0.906
18 July 2003
0.926
21 July 2003
0.996
22 July 2003
1.062
23 July 2003
1.025
24 July 2003
1.081
25 July 2003
1.104
28 July 2003
1.174
29 July 2003
1.261
30 July 2003
1.229
31 July 2003
1.294
1 August 2003
1.292
4 August 2003
1.233
5 August 2003
1.292
6 August 2003
1.186
7 August 2003
1.136
8 August 2003
1.125
11 August 2003
1.191
12 August 2003
1.208
13 August 2003
1.355
14 August 2003
1.342
15 August 2003
1.339
18 August 2003
1.292
19 August 2003
1.222
20 August 2003
1.281
21 August 2003
1.349
22 August 2003
1.311
25 August 2003
1.346
26 August 2003
1.347
27 August 2003
1.367
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
28 August
2003
1.288
29 August 2003
1.312
1 September 2003
ND
2 September 2003
1.435
3 September 2003
1.430
4 September 2003
1.353
5 September 2003
1.223
8 September 2003
1.246
9 September 2003
1.221
10 September 2003
1.137
11 September 2003
1.177
12 September 2003
1.127
15 September 2003
1.124
16 September 2003
1.131
17 September 2003
1.048
18 September 2003
1.049
19 September 2003
1.045
22 September 2003
1.114
23 September 2003
1.090
24 September 2003
1.034
25 September 2003
1.005
26 September 2003
0.929
29 September 2003
0.963
30 September 2003
0.871
1 October 2003
0.873
2 October 2003
0.939
3 October 2003
1.077
6 October 2003
1.053
7 October 2003
1.123
8 October 2003
1.119
9 October 2003
1.155
10 October 2003
1.126
13 October 2003
ND
14 October 2003
1.196
15 October 2003
1.235
16 October 2003
1.265
17 October 2003
1.230
20 October 2003
1.222
21 October 2003
1.201
22 October 2003
1.131
23 October 2003
1.161
24 October 2003
1.084
27 October 2003
1.117
28 October 2003
1.069
29 October 2003
1.131
30 October 2003
1.182
31 October 2003
1.162
3 November 2003
1.216
4 November 2003
1.172
5 November 2003
1.202
6 November 2003
1.262
7 November 2003
1.281
10 November 2003
1.290
11 November 2003
ND
12 November 2003
1.252
13 November 2003
1.152
14 November 2003
1.088
17 November 2003
1.056
18 November 2003
1.034
19 November 2003
1.082
20 November 2003
1.041
21 November 2003
1.036
24 November 2003
1.088
25 November 2003
1.073
26 November 2003
1.119
27 November 2003
ND
28 November 2003
1.181
1 December 2003
1.246
2 December 2003
1.238
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
3 December
2003
1.254
4 December 2003
1.226
5 December 2003
1.118
8 December 2003
1.147
9 December 2003
1.171
10 December 2003
1.156
11 December 2003
1.129
12 December 2003
1.122
15 December 2003
1.140
16 December 2003
1.111
17 December 2003
1.078
18 December 2003
1.055
19 December 2003
1.060
22 December 2003
1.069
23 December 2003
1.136
24 December 2003
1.087
25 December 2003
ND
26 December 2003
1.056
29 December 2003
1.110
30 December 2003
1.140
31 December 2003
1.124
1 January 2004
ND
2 January 2004
1.203
5 January 2004
1.221
6 January 2004
1.142
7 January 2004
1.114
8 January 2004
1.112
9 January 2004
1.001
12 January 2004
0.988
13 January 2004
0.949
14 January 2004
0.915
15 January 2004
0.905
16 January 2004
0.952
19 January 2004
ND
20 January 2004
0.979
21 January 2004
0.961
22 January 2004
0.918
23 January 2004
0.995
26 January 2004
1.042
27 January 2004
1.013
28 January 2004
1.076
29 January 2004
1.084
30 January 2004
1.048
2 February 2004
1.060
3 February 2004
1.031
4 February 2004
1.044
5 February 2004
1.066
6 February 2004
1.016
9 February 2004
0.994
10 February 2004
1.012
11 February 2004
0.958
12 February 2004
0.978
13 February 2004
0.950
16 February 2004
ND
17 February 2004
0.945
18 February 2004
0.953
19 February 2004
0.950
20 February 2004
0.987
23 February 2004
0.952
24 February 2004
0.936
25 February 2004
0.924
26 February 2004
0.944
27 February 2004
0.927
1 March 2004
0.910
2 March 2004
0.948
3 March 2004
0.956
4 March 2004
0.930
5 March 2004
0.789
8 March 2004
0.736
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
9 March
2004
0.686
10 March 2004
0.687
11 March 2004
0.710
12 March 2004
0.715
15 March 2004
0.712
16 March 2004
0.655
17 March 2004
0.658
18 March 2004
0.705
19 March 2004
0.734
22 March 2004
0.685
23 March 2004
0.679
24 March 2004
0.682
25 March 2004
0.706
26 March 2004
0.779
29 March 2004
0.820
30 March 2004
0.821
31 March 2004
0.783
1 April 2004
0.820
2 April 2004
1.006
5 April 2004
1.080
6 April 2004
1.046
7 April 2004
1.046
8 April 2004
1.072
9 April 2004
ND
12 April 2004
1.105
13 April 2004
1.180
14 April 2004
1.201
15 April 2004
1.228
16 April 2004
1.199
19 April 2004
1.215
20 April 2004
1.238
21 April 2004
1.249
22 April 2004
1.219
23 April 2004
1.270
26 April 2004
1.264
27 April 2004
1.252
28 April 2004
1.300
29 April 2004
1.345
30 April 2004
1.321
3 May 2004
1.318
4 May 2004
1.350
5 May 2004
1.383
6 May 2004
1.391
7 May 2004
1.495
10 May 2004
1.504
11 May 2004
1.492
12 May 2004
1.513
13 May 2004
1.537
14 May 2004
1.491
17 May 2004
1.422
18 May 2004
1.440
19 May 2004
1.474
20 May 2004
1.434
21 May 2004
1.455
24 May 2004
1.442
25 May 2004
1.428
26 May 2004
1.388
27 May 2004
1.338
28 May 2004
1.366
31 May 2004
ND
1 June 2004
1.395
2 June 2004
1.412
3 June 2004
1.395
4 June 2004
1.432
7 June 2004
1.422
8 June 2004
1.409
9 June 2004
1.421
10 June 2004
1.395
11 June 2004
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
14 June
2004
ND
1.423
15 June 2004
1.301
16 June 2004
1.333
17 June 2004
1.314
18 June 2004
1.321
21 June 2004
1.303
22 June 2004
1.313
23 June 2004
1.305
24 June 2004
1.264
25 June 2004
1.264
28 June 2004
1.316
29 June 2004
1.280
30 June 2004
1.234
1 July 2004
1.203
2 July 2004
1.131
5 July 2004
ND
6 July 2004
1.134
7 July 2004
1.139
8 July 2004
1.131
9 July 2004
1.127
12 July 2004
1.108
13 July 2004
1.124
14 July 2004
1.125
15 July 2004
1.127
16 July 2004
1.047
19 July 2004
1.043
20 July 2004
1.103
21 July 2004
1.125
22 July 2004
1.116
23 July 2004
1.095
26 July 2004
1.113
27 July 2004
1.198
28 July 2004
1.190
29 July 2004
1.188
30 July 2004
1.112
2 August 2004
1.093
3 August 2004
1.069
4 August 2004
1.067
5 August 2004
1.045
6 August 2004
0.921
9 August 2004
0.941
10 August 2004
0.961
11 August 2004
0.959
12 August 2004
0.934
13 August 2004
0.902
16 August 2004
0.921
17 August 2004
0.885
18 August 2004
0.906
19 August 2004
0.894
20 August 2004
0.900
23 August 2004
0.925
24 August 2004
0.925
25 August 2004
0.907
26 August 2004
0.884
27 August 2004
0.883
30 August 2004
0.851
31 August 2004
0.796
1 September 2004
0.792
2 September 2004
0.842
3 September 2004
0.891
6 September 2004
ND
7 September 2004
0.849
8 September 2004
0.800
9 September 2004
0.820
10 September 2004
0.802
13 September 2004
0.777
14 September 2004
0.768
15 September 2004
0.787
16 September 2004
0.723
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
17 September
2004
0.747
20 September 2004
0.700
21 September 2004
0.676
22 September 2004
0.640
23 September 2004
0.655
24 September 2004
0.653
27 September 2004
0.621
28 September 2004
0.639
29 September 2004
0.690
30 September 2004
0.720
1 October 2004
0.776
4 October 2004
0.756
5 October 2004
0.753
6 October 2004
0.787
7 October 2004
0.812
8 October 2004
0.733
11 October 2004
ND
12 October 2004
0.710
13 October 2004
0.693
14 October 2004
0.648
15 October 2004
0.668
18 October 2004
0.663
19 October 2004
0.662
20 October 2004
0.614
21 October 2004
0.615
22 October 2004
0.602
25 October 2004
0.580
26 October 2004
0.590
27 October 2004
0.653
28 October 2004
0.645
29 October 2004
0.609
1 November 2004
0.640
2 November 2004
0.630
3 November 2004
0.625
4 November 2004
0.626
5 November 2004
0.679
8 November 2004
0.689
9 November 2004
0.686
10 November 2004
0.704
11 November 2004
ND
12 November 2004
0.666
15 November 2004
0.653
16 November 2004
0.705
17 November 2004
0.659
18 November 2004
0.592
19 November 2004
0.655
22 November 2004
0.630
23 November 2004
0.640
24 November 2004
0.643
25 November 2004
ND
26 November 2004
0.678
29 November 2004
0.745
30 November 2004
0.765
1 December 2004
0.782
2 December 2004
0.792
3 December 2004
0.697
6 December 2004
0.674
7 December 2004
0.662
8 December 2004
0.590
9 December 2004
0.605
10 December 2004
0.588
13 December 2004
0.573
14 December 2004
0.561
15 December 2004
0.524
16 December 2004
0.604
17 December 2004
0.614
20 December 2004
0.596
21 December 2004
0.575
22 December 2004
0.594
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
23 December
2004
0.602
24 December 2004
ND
27 December 2004
0.649
28 December 2004
0.648
29 December 2004
0.668
30 December 2004
0.632
31 December 2004
0.609
3 January 2005
0.604
4 January 2005
0.643
5 January 2005
0.640
6 January 2005
0.642
7 January 2005
0.649
10 January 2005
0.642
11 January 2005
0.616
12 January 2005
0.613
13 January 2005
0.575
14 January 2005
0.589
17 January 2005
ND
18 January 2005
0.575
19 January 2005
0.575
20 January 2005
0.558
21 January 2005
0.550
24 January 2005
0.517
25 January 2005
0.570
26 January 2005
0.563
27 January 2005
0.581
28 January 2005
0.530
31 January 2005
0.509
1 February 2005
0.517
2 February 2005
0.522
3 February 2005
0.540
4 February 2005
0.477
7 February 2005
0.454
8 February 2005
0.433
9 February 2005
0.397
10 February 2005
0.447
11 February 2005
0.459
14 February 2005
0.442
15 February 2005
0.459
16 February 2005
0.499
17 February 2005
0.521
18 February 2005
0.570
21 February 2005
ND
22 February 2005
0.586
23 February 2005
0.567
24 February 2005
0.581
25 February 2005
0.562
28 February 2005
0.621
1 March 2005
0.638
2 March 2005
0.648
3 March 2005
0.652
4 March 2005
0.600
7 March 2005
0.589
8 March 2005
0.642
9 March 2005
0.751
10 March 2005
0.701
11 March 2005
0.764
14 March 2005
0.737
15 March 2005
0.755
16 March 2005
0.735
17 March 2005
0.698
18 March 2005
0.723
21 March 2005
0.733
22 March 2005
0.787
23 March 2005
0.782
24 March 2005
0.773
25 March 2005
ND
28 March 2005
0.800
29 March 2005
0.769
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
30 March
2005
0.738
31 March 2005
0.690
1 April 2005
0.656
4 April 2005
0.674
5 April 2005
0.677
6 April 2005
0.653
7 April 2005
0.682
8 April 2005
0.680
11 April 2005
0.646
12 April 2005
0.588
13 April 2005
0.590
14 April 2005
0.575
15 April 2005
0.510
18 April 2005
0.494
19 April 2005
0.472
20 April 2005
0.475
21 April 2005
0.530
22 April 2005
0.491
25 April 2005
0.483
26 April 2005
0.496
27 April 2005
0.473
28 April 2005
0.427
29 April 2005
0.437
2 May 2005
0.432
3 May 2005
0.432
4 May 2005
0.428
5 May 2005
0.423
6 May 2005
0.472
9 May 2005
0.478
10 May 2005
0.444
11 May 2005
0.431
12 May 2005
0.417
13 May 2005
0.397
16 May 2005
0.396
17 May 2005
0.384
18 May 2005
0.355
19 May 2005
0.384
20 May 2005
0.396
23 May 2005
0.346
24 May 2005
0.320
25 May 2005
0.355
26 May 2005
0.357
27 May 2005
0.347
30 May 2005
ND
31 May 2005
0.299
1 June 2005
0.230
2 June 2005
0.221
3 June 2005
0.285
6 June 2005
0.274
7 June 2005
0.241
8 June 2005
0.258
9 June 2005
0.277
10 June 2005
0.327
13 June 2005
0.356
14 June 2005
0.377
15 June 2005
0.372
16 June 2005
0.347
17 June 2005
0.349
20 June 2005
0.354
21 June 2005
0.303
22 June 2005
0.239
23 June 2005
0.240
24 June 2005
0.203
27 June 2005
0.183
28 June 2005
0.226
29 June 2005
0.240
30 June 2005
0.197
1 July 2005
0.265
4 July 2005
Loading
5 July[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
2005
ND
0.311
6 July 2005
0.285
7 July 2005
0.275
8 July 2005
0.302
11 July 2005
0.298
12 July 2005
0.322
13 July 2005
0.339
14 July 2005
0.353
15 July 2005
0.344
18 July 2005
0.364
19 July 2005
0.340
20 July 2005
0.316
21 July 2005
0.388
22 July 2005
0.347
25 July 2005
0.347
26 July 2005
0.342
27 July 2005
0.358
28 July 2005
0.307
29 July 2005
0.365
1 August 2005
0.384
2 August 2005
0.392
3 August 2005
0.366
4 August 2005
0.382
5 August 2005
0.428
8 August 2005
0.441
9 August 2005
0.432
10 August 2005
0.423
11 August 2005
0.376
12 August 2005
0.320
15 August 2005
0.339
16 August 2005
0.308
17 August 2005
0.341
18 August 2005
0.293
19 August 2005
0.281
22 August 2005
0.284
23 August 2005
0.275
24 August 2005
0.271
25 August 2005
0.265
26 August 2005
0.274
29 August 2005
0.271
30 August 2005
0.251
31 August 2005
0.160
1 September 2005
0.179
2 September 2005
0.191
5 September 2005
ND
6 September 2005
0.214
7 September 2005
0.246
8 September 2005
0.235
9 September 2005
0.219
12 September 2005
0.254
13 September 2005
0.226
14 September 2005
0.248
15 September 2005
0.285
16 September 2005
0.308
19 September 2005
0.301
20 September 2005
0.290
21 September 2005
0.256
22 September 2005
0.248
23 September 2005
0.293
26 September 2005
0.322
27 September 2005
0.325
28 September 2005
0.299
29 September 2005
0.323
30 September 2005
0.379
3 October 2005
0.361
4 October 2005
0.353
5 October 2005
0.344
6 October 2005
0.354
7 October 2005
0.337
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
10 October
2005
ND
11 October 2005
0.348
12 October 2005
0.379
13 October 2005
0.402
14 October 2005
0.406
17 October 2005
0.407
18 October 2005
0.400
19 October 2005
0.381
20 October 2005
0.378
21 October 2005
0.322
24 October 2005
0.364
25 October 2005
0.421
26 October 2005
0.462
27 October 2005
0.444
28 October 2005
0.442
31 October 2005
0.427
1 November 2005
0.437
2 November 2005
0.463
3 November 2005
0.493
4 November 2005
0.508
7 November 2005
0.537
8 November 2005
0.475
9 November 2005
0.519
10 November 2005
0.464
11 November 2005
ND
14 November 2005
0.497
15 November 2005
0.463
16 November 2005
0.409
17 November 2005
0.402
18 November 2005
0.370
21 November 2005
0.353
22 November 2005
0.337
23 November 2005
0.361
24 November 2005
ND
25 November 2005
0.327
28 November 2005
0.304
29 November 2005
0.354
30 November 2005
0.367
1 December 2005
0.389
2 December 2005
0.389
5 December 2005
0.421
6 December 2005
0.364
7 December 2005
0.388
8 December 2005
0.353
9 December 2005
0.400
12 December 2005
0.406
13 December 2005
0.395
14 December 2005
0.334
15 December 2005
0.348
16 December 2005
0.328
19 December 2005
0.315
20 December 2005
0.328
21 December 2005
0.340
22 December 2005
0.303
23 December 2005
0.263
26 December 2005
ND
27 December 2005
0.233
28 December 2005
0.263
29 December 2005
0.247
30 December 2005
0.257
2 January 2006
ND
3 January 2006
0.244
4 January 2006
0.232
5 January 2006
0.236
6 January 2006
0.244
9 January 2006
0.244
10 January 2006
0.272
11 January 2006
0.286
12 January 2006
0.266
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
13 January
2006
0.217
16 January 2006
ND
17 January 2006
0.195
18 January 2006
0.199
19 January 2006
0.223
20 January 2006
0.213
23 January 2006
0.207
24 January 2006
0.226
25 January 2006
0.281
26 January 2006
0.310
27 January 2006
0.301
30 January 2006
0.312
31 January 2006
0.304
1 February 2006
0.323
2 February 2006
0.325
3 February 2006
0.299
6 February 2006
0.297
7 February 2006
0.314
8 February 2006
0.331
9 February 2006
0.315
10 February 2006
0.344
13 February 2006
0.334
14 February 2006
0.353
15 February 2006
0.352
16 February 2006
0.346
17 February 2006
0.306
20 February 2006
ND
21 February 2006
0.321
22 February 2006
0.296
23 February 2006
0.317
24 February 2006
0.331
27 February 2006
0.345
28 February 2006
0.310
1 March 2006
0.333
2 March 2006
0.376
3 March 2006
0.405
6 March 2006
0.441
7 March 2006
0.438
8 March 2006
0.434
9 March 2006
0.427
10 March 2006
0.438
13 March 2006
0.438
14 March 2006
0.389
15 March 2006
0.397
16 March 2006
0.344
17 March 2006
0.366
20 March 2006
0.350
21 March 2006
0.381
22 March 2006
0.378
23 March 2006
0.404
24 March 2006
0.362
27 March 2006
0.377
28 March 2006
0.434
29 March 2006
0.447
30 March 2006
0.479
31 March 2006
0.479
3 April 2006
0.486
4 April 2006
0.482
5 April 2006
0.463
6 April 2006
0.492
7 April 2006
0.535
10 April 2006
0.527
11 April 2006
0.499
12 April 2006
0.523
13 April 2006
0.567
14 April 2006
ND
17 April 2006
0.543
18 April 2006
0.529
19 April 2006
0.562
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
20 April
2006
0.563
21 April 2006
0.534
24 April 2006
0.521
25 April 2006
0.572
26 April 2006
0.587
27 April 2006
0.579
28 April 2006
0.569
1 May 2006
0.601
2 May 2006
0.585
3 May 2006
0.611
4 May 2006
0.609
5 May 2006
0.581
8 May 2006
0.579
9 May 2006
0.585
10 May 2006
0.579
11 May 2006
0.605
12 May 2006
0.641
15 May 2006
0.616
16 May 2006
0.579
17 May 2006
0.623
18 May 2006
0.554
19 May 2006
0.533
22 May 2006
0.523
23 May 2006
0.539
24 May 2006
0.520
25 May 2006
0.552
26 May 2006
0.540
29 May 2006
ND
30 May 2006
0.559
31 May 2006
0.570
1 June 2006
0.569
2 June 2006
0.493
5 June 2006
0.507
6 June 2006
0.486
7 June 2006
0.502
8 June 2006
0.478
9 June 2006
0.462
12 June 2006
0.462
13 June 2006
0.444
14 June 2006
0.497
15 June 2006
0.522
16 June 2006
0.538
19 June 2006
0.542
20 June 2006
0.546
21 June 2006
0.550
22 June 2006
0.577
23 June 2006
0.590
26 June 2006
0.599
27 June 2006
0.570
28 June 2006
0.589
29 June 2006
0.571
30 June 2006
0.523
3 July 2006
0.523
4 July 2006
ND
5 July 2006
0.570
6 July 2006
0.552
7 July 2006
0.515
10 July 2006
0.507
11 July 2006
0.484
12 July 2006
0.493
13 July 2006
0.480
14 July 2006
0.472
17 July 2006
0.468
18 July 2006
0.503
19 July 2006
0.457
20 July 2006
0.438
21 July 2006
0.456
24 July 2006
0.452
25 July 2006
0.467
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
26 July
2006
0.455
27 July 2006
0.466
28 July 2006
0.431
31 July 2006
0.425
1 August 2006
0.418
2 August 2006
0.402
3 August 2006
0.393
4 August 2006
0.359
7 August 2006
0.365
8 August 2006
0.378
9 August 2006
0.388
10 August 2006
0.385
11 August 2006
0.409
14 August 2006
0.422
15 August 2006
0.385
16 August 2006
0.342
17 August 2006
0.337
18 August 2006
0.311
21 August 2006
0.304
22 August 2006
0.303
23 August 2006
0.304
24 August 2006
0.298
25 August 2006
0.292
28 August 2006
0.296
29 August 2006
0.302
30 August 2006
0.294
31 August 2006
0.283
1 September 2006
0.286
4 September 2006
ND
5 September 2006
0.314
6 September 2006
0.332
7 September 2006
0.319
8 September 2006
0.310
11 September 2006
0.320
12 September 2006
0.302
13 September 2006
0.300
14 September 2006
0.315
15 September 2006
0.320
18 September 2006
0.328
19 September 2006
0.278
20 September 2006
0.275
21 September 2006
0.230
22 September 2006
0.202
25 September 2006
0.169
26 September 2006
0.186
27 September 2006
0.198
28 September 2006
0.214
29 September 2006
0.226
2 October 2006
0.219
3 October 2006
0.216
4 October 2006
0.188
5 October 2006
0.208
6 October 2006
0.267
9 October 2006
ND
10 October 2006
0.290
11 October 2006
0.305
12 October 2006
0.299
13 October 2006
0.314
16 October 2006
0.299
17 October 2006
0.284
18 October 2006
0.277
19 October 2006
0.293
20 October 2006
0.295
23 October 2006
0.319
24 October 2006
0.314
25 October 2006
0.276
26 October 2006
0.239
27 October 2006
0.214
30 October 2006
0.219
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
31 October
2006
0.171
1 November 2006
0.150
2 November 2006
0.178
3 November 2006
0.235
6 November 2006
0.227
7 November 2006
0.197
8 November 2006
0.177
9 November 2006
0.173
10 November 2006
0.149
13 November 2006
0.155
14 November 2006
0.132
15 November 2006
0.156
16 November 2006
0.190
17 November 2006
0.159
20 November 2006
0.151
21 November 2006
0.135
22 November 2006
0.124
23 November 2006
ND
24 November 2006
0.117
27 November 2006
0.108
28 November 2006
0.096
29 November 2006
0.101
30 November 2006
0.066
1 December 2006
0.074
4 December 2006
0.079
5 December 2006
0.087
6 December 2006
0.108
7 December 2006
0.116
8 December 2006
0.151
11 December 2006
0.123
12 December 2006
0.103
13 December 2006
0.159
14 December 2006
0.166
15 December 2006
0.169
18 December 2006
0.161
19 December 2006
0.165
20 December 2006
0.166
21 December 2006
0.141
22 December 2006
0.189
25 December 2006
ND
26 December 2006
0.177
27 December 2006
0.206
28 December 2006
0.242
29 December 2006
0.255
1 January 2007
ND
2 January 2007
0.239
3 January 2007
0.226
4 January 2007
0.206
5 January 2007
0.217
8 January 2007
0.218
9 January 2007
0.208
10 January 2007
0.227
11 January 2007
0.259
12 January 2007
0.286
15 January 2007
ND
16 January 2007
0.272
17 January 2007
0.295
18 January 2007
0.272
19 January 2007
0.288
22 January 2007
0.273
23 January 2007
0.308
24 January 2007
0.314
25 January 2007
0.352
26 January 2007
0.363
29 January 2007
0.374
30 January 2007
0.364
31 January 2007
0.331
1 February 2007
0.336
2 February 2007
0.331
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
5 February
2007
0.318
6 February 2007
0.279
7 February 2007
0.265
8 February 2007
0.257
9 February 2007
0.296
12 February 2007
0.308
13 February 2007
0.315
14 February 2007
0.254
15 February 2007
0.238
16 February 2007
0.225
19 February 2007
ND
20 February 2007
0.218
21 February 2007
0.223
22 February 2007
0.247
23 February 2007
0.210
26 February 2007
0.173
27 February 2007
0.102
28 February 2007
0.137
1 March 2007
0.142
2 March 2007
0.127
5 March 2007
0.131
6 March 2007
0.131
7 March 2007
0.111
8 March 2007
0.114
9 March 2007
0.146
12 March 2007
0.122
13 March 2007
0.103
14 March 2007
0.114
15 March 2007
0.111
16 March 2007
0.113
19 March 2007
0.127
20 March 2007
0.115
21 March 2007
0.118
22 March 2007
0.153
23 March 2007
0.170
26 March 2007
0.161
27 March 2007
0.179
28 March 2007
0.187
29 March 2007
0.197
30 March 2007
0.209
2 April 2007
0.208
3 April 2007
0.216
4 April 2007
0.214
5 April 2007
0.234
6 April 2007
0.271
9 April 2007
0.266
10 April 2007
0.258
11 April 2007
0.265
12 April 2007
0.266
13 April 2007
0.278
16 April 2007
0.262
17 April 2007
0.239
18 April 2007
0.219
19 April 2007
0.233
20 April 2007
0.233
23 April 2007
0.215
24 April 2007
0.201
25 April 2007
0.215
26 April 2007
0.242
27 April 2007
0.248
30 April 2007
0.205
1 May 2007
0.199
2 May 2007
0.209
3 May 2007
0.224
4 May 2007
0.202
7 May 2007
0.199
8 May 2007
0.197
9 May 2007
0.228
10 May 2007
0.226
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
11 May
2007
0.254
14 May 2007
0.272
15 May 2007
0.295
16 May 2007
0.300
17 May 2007
0.331
18 May 2007
0.356
21 May 2007
0.335
22 May 2007
0.362
23 May 2007
0.389
24 May 2007
0.389
25 May 2007
0.398
28 May 2007
ND
29 May 2007
0.409
30 May 2007
0.412
31 May 2007
0.432
1 June 2007
0.473
4 June 2007
0.456
5 June 2007
0.495
6 June 2007
0.502
7 June 2007
0.602
8 June 2007
0.617
11 June 2007
0.632
12 June 2007
0.725
13 June 2007
0.686
14 June 2007
0.704
15 June 2007
0.668
18 June 2007
0.647
19 June 2007
0.603
20 June 2007
0.624
21 June 2007
0.645
22 June 2007
0.628
25 June 2007
0.579
26 June 2007
0.590
27 June 2007
0.578
28 June 2007
0.600
29 June 2007
0.540
2 July 2007
0.503
3 July 2007
0.538
4 July 2007
ND
5 July 2007
0.603
6 July 2007
0.644
9 July 2007
0.615
10 July 2007
0.533
11 July 2007
0.564
12 July 2007
0.585
13 July 2007
0.575
16 July 2007
0.532
17 July 2007
0.556
18 July 2007
0.512
19 July 2007
0.527
20 July 2007
0.477
23 July 2007
0.463
24 July 2007
0.447
25 July 2007
0.425
26 July 2007
0.362
27 July 2007
0.366
30 July 2007
0.372
31 July 2007
0.349
1 August 2007
0.344
2 August 2007
0.343
3 August 2007
0.324
6 August 2007
0.329
7 August 2007
0.346
8 August 2007
0.413
9 August 2007
0.416
10 August 2007
0.439
13 August 2007
0.426
14 August 2007
0.421
15 August 2007
0.438
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
16 August
2007
0.434
17 August 2007
0.495
20 August 2007
0.492
21 August 2007
0.478
22 August 2007
0.494
23 August 2007
0.467
24 August 2007
0.419
27 August 2007
0.353
28 August 2007
0.325
29 August 2007
0.368
30 August 2007
0.346
31 August 2007
0.345
3 September 2007
ND
4 September 2007
0.336
5 September 2007
0.285
6 September 2007
0.300
7 September 2007
0.236
10 September 2007
0.215
11 September 2007
0.235
12 September 2007
0.277
13 September 2007
0.318
14 September 2007
0.313
17 September 2007
0.315
18 September 2007
0.364
19 September 2007
0.395
20 September 2007
0.505
21 September 2007
0.483
24 September 2007
0.482
25 September 2007
0.482
26 September 2007
0.489
27 September 2007
0.449
28 September 2007
0.449
1 October 2007
0.415
2 October 2007
0.398
3 October 2007
0.402
4 October 2007
0.387
5 October 2007
0.469
8 October 2007
ND
9 October 2007
0.468
10 October 2007
0.457
11 October 2007
0.458
12 October 2007
0.462
15 October 2007
0.445
16 October 2007
0.448
17 October 2007
0.407
18 October 2007
0.383
19 October 2007
0.318
22 October 2007
0.319
23 October 2007
0.322
24 October 2007
0.297
25 October 2007
0.306
26 October 2007
0.337
29 October 2007
0.313
30 October 2007
0.317
31 October 2007
0.370
1 November 2007
0.320
2 November 2007
0.318
5 November 2007
0.326
6 November 2007
0.356
7 November 2007
0.363
8 November 2007
0.354
9 November 2007
0.320
12 November 2007
ND
13 November 2007
0.319
14 November 2007
0.337
15 November 2007
0.300
16 November 2007
0.300
19 November 2007
0.261
20 November 2007
0.268
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
21 November
2007
0.278
22 November 2007
ND
23 November 2007
0.263
26 November 2007
0.147
27 November 2007
0.214
28 November 2007
0.261
29 November 2007
0.221
30 November 2007
0.242
3 December 2007
0.206
4 December 2007
0.206
5 December 2007
0.225
6 December 2007
0.267
7 December 2007
0.342
10 December 2007
0.356
11 December 2007
0.275
12 December 2007
0.309
13 December 2007
0.378
14 December 2007
0.401
17 December 2007
0.357
18 December 2007
0.312
19 December 2007
0.265
20 December 2007
0.268
21 December 2007
0.345
24 December 2007
0.360
25 December 2007
ND
26 December 2007
0.392
27 December 2007
0.348
28 December 2007
0.286
31 December 2007
0.237
1 January 2008
ND
2 January 2008
0.180
3 January 2008
0.186
4 January 2008
0.157
7 January 2008
0.116
8 January 2008
0.118
9 January 2008
0.098
10 January 2008
0.176
11 January 2008
0.138
14 January 2008
0.142
15 January 2008
0.082
16 January 2008
0.106
17 January 2008
0.067
18 January 2008
0.112
21 January 2008
ND
22 January 2008
0.101
23 January 2008
0.119
24 January 2008
0.227
25 January 2008
0.196
28 January 2008
0.213
29 January 2008
0.274
30 January 2008
0.352
31 January 2008
0.302
1 February 2008
0.275
4 February 2008
0.311
5 February 2008
0.281
6 February 2008
0.293
7 February 2008
0.390
8 February 2008
0.323
11 February 2008
0.296
12 February 2008
0.331
13 February 2008
0.367
14 February 2008
0.480
15 February 2008
0.424
18 February 2008
ND
19 February 2008
0.493
20 February 2008
0.513
21 February 2008
0.422
22 February 2008
0.425
25 February 2008
0.508
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
26 February
2008
0.500
27 February 2008
0.499
28 February 2008
0.409
29 February 2008
0.315
3 March 2008
0.335
4 March 2008
0.404
5 March 2008
0.462
6 March 2008
0.433
7 March 2008
0.388
10 March 2008
0.325
11 March 2008
0.403
12 March 2008
0.337
13 March 2008
0.397
14 March 2008
0.322
17 March 2008
0.261
18 March 2008
0.329
19 March 2008
0.298
20 March 2008
0.262
21 March 2008
0.289
24 March 2008
0.372
25 March 2008
0.347
26 March 2008
0.356
27 March 2008
0.388
28 March 2008
0.333
31 March 2008
0.314
1 April 2008
0.395
2 April 2008
0.419
3 April 2008
0.424
4 April 2008
0.354
7 April 2008
0.398
8 April 2008
0.424
9 April 2008
0.371
10 April 2008
0.425
11 April 2008
0.396
14 April 2008
0.429
15 April 2008
0.469
16 April 2008
0.546
17 April 2008
0.541
18 April 2008
0.546
21 April 2008
0.552
22 April 2008
0.560
23 April 2008
0.588
24 April 2008
0.660
25 April 2008
0.690
28 April 2008
0.645
29 April 2008
0.630
30 April 2008
0.597
1 May 2008
0.591
2 May 2008
0.672
5 May 2008
0.652
6 May 2008
0.682
7 May 2008
0.643
8 May 2008
0.584
9 May 2008
0.560
12 May 2008
0.546
13 May 2008
0.622
14 May 2008
0.649
15 May 2008
0.579
16 May 2008
0.595
19 May 2008
0.577
20 May 2008
0.545
21 May 2008
0.568
22 May 2008
0.652
23 May 2008
0.602
26 May 2008
ND
27 May 2008
0.667
28 May 2008
0.737
29 May 2008
0.791
30 May 2008
0.763
Loading
2 June[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
2008
0.690
3 June 2008
0.632
4 June 2008
0.673
5 June 2008
0.728
6 June 2008
0.642
9 June 2008
0.680
10 June 2008
0.737
11 June 2008
0.738
12 June 2008
0.812
13 June 2008
0.846
16 June 2008
0.827
17 June 2008
0.817
18 June 2008
0.763
19 June 2008
0.814
20 June 2008
0.774
23 June 2008
0.784
24 June 2008
0.721
25 June 2008
0.749
26 June 2008
0.706
27 June 2008
0.649
30 June 2008
0.639
1 July 2008
0.640
2 July 2008
0.630
3 July 2008
0.634
4 July 2008
ND
7 July 2008
0.601
8 July 2008
0.562
9 July 2008
0.522
10 July 2008
0.522
11 July 2008
0.625
14 July 2008
0.603
15 July 2008
0.588
16 July 2008
0.674
17 July 2008
0.750
18 July 2008
0.789
21 July 2008
0.769
22 July 2008
0.810
23 July 2008
0.835
24 July 2008
0.748
25 July 2008
0.803
28 July 2008
0.741
29 July 2008
0.757
30 July 2008
0.743
31 July 2008
0.671
1 August 2008
0.654
4 August 2008
0.645
5 August 2008
0.679
6 August 2008
0.704
7 August 2008
0.612
8 August 2008
0.613
11 August 2008
0.636
12 August 2008
0.571
13 August 2008
0.597
14 August 2008
0.557
15 August 2008
0.522
18 August 2008
0.502
19 August 2008
0.523
20 August 2008
0.498
21 August 2008
0.530
22 August 2008
0.550
25 August 2008
0.486
26 August 2008
0.486
27 August 2008
0.472
28 August 2008
0.477
29 August 2008
0.514
1 September 2008
ND
2 September 2008
0.455
3 September 2008
0.421
4 September 2008
0.376
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
5 September
2008
0.394
8 September 2008
0.399
9 September 2008
0.381
10 September 2008
0.414
11 September 2008
0.406
12 September 2008
0.502
15 September 2008
0.393
16 September 2008
0.407
17 September 2008
0.465
18 September 2008
0.573
19 September 2008
0.648
22 September 2008
0.660
23 September 2008
0.668
24 September 2008
0.671
25 September 2008
0.710
26 September 2008
0.688
29 September 2008
0.560
30 September 2008
0.707
1 October 2008
0.699
2 October 2008
0.666
3 October 2008
0.658
6 October 2008
0.565
7 October 2008
0.569
8 October 2008
0.789
9 October 2008
0.914
10 October 2008
0.973
13 October 2008
ND
14 October 2008
1.111
15 October 2008
1.131
16 October 2008
1.051
17 October 2008
1.007
20 October 2008
0.854
21 October 2008
0.739
22 October 2008
0.674
23 October 2008
0.707
24 October 2008
0.801
27 October 2008
0.853
28 October 2008
0.981
29 October 2008
1.055
30 October 2008
1.127
31 October 2008
1.137
3 November 2008
1.111
4 November 2008
0.971
5 November 2008
0.921
6 November 2008
0.951
7 November 2008
1.023
10 November 2008
1.019
11 November 2008
ND
12 November 2008
0.926
13 November 2008
0.962
14 November 2008
0.859
17 November 2008
0.814
18 November 2008
0.720
19 November 2008
0.644
20 November 2008
0.506
21 November 2008
0.588
24 November 2008
0.713
25 November 2008
0.545
26 November 2008
0.479
27 November 2008
ND
28 November 2008
0.462
1 December 2008
0.287
2 December 2008
0.258
3 December 2008
0.261
4 December 2008
0.201
5 December 2008
0.342
8 December 2008
0.407
9 December 2008
0.332
10 December 2008
0.346
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
11 December
2008
0.297
12 December 2008
0.279
15 December 2008
0.231
16 December 2008
0.112
17 December 2008
-0.007
18 December 2008
-0.097
19 December 2008
-0.038
22 December 2008
-0.036
23 December 2008
-0.020
24 December 2008
0.005
25 December 2008
ND
26 December 2008
-0.035
29 December 2008
-0.046
30 December 2008
-0.048
31 December 2008
0.060
1 January 2009
ND
2 January 2009
0.207
5 January 2009
0.210
6 January 2009
0.201
7 January 2009
0.198
8 January 2009
0.151
9 January 2009
0.116
12 January 2009
0.053
13 January 2009
0.037
14 January 2009
-0.030
15 January 2009
-0.031
16 January 2009
0.087
19 January 2009
ND
20 January 2009
0.123
21 January 2009
0.259
22 January 2009
0.309
23 January 2009
0.319
26 January 2009
0.359
27 January 2009
0.273
28 January 2009
0.358
29 January 2009
0.468
30 January 2009
0.460
2 February 2009
0.366
3 February 2009
0.460
4 February 2009
0.497
5 February 2009
0.487
6 February 2009
0.553
9 February 2009
0.553
10 February 2009
0.413
11 February 2009
0.341
12 February 2009
0.312
13 February 2009
0.418
16 February 2009
ND
17 February 2009
0.215
18 February 2009
0.296
19 February 2009
0.391
20 February 2009
0.338
23 February 2009
0.349
24 February 2009
0.372
25 February 2009
0.480
26 February 2009
0.510
27 February 2009
0.533
2 March 2009
0.434
3 March 2009
0.453
4 March 2009
0.528
5 March 2009
0.399
6 March 2009
0.404
9 March 2009
0.431
10 March 2009
0.511
11 March 2009
0.461
12 March 2009
0.409
13 March 2009
0.396
16 March 2009
0.449
17 March 2009
0.500
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
18 March
2009
0.101
19 March 2009
0.132
20 March 2009
0.146
23 March 2009
0.153
24 March 2009
0.160
25 March 2009
0.261
26 March 2009
0.231
27 March 2009
0.240
30 March 2009
0.189
31 March 2009
0.167
1 April 2009
0.135
2 April 2009
0.205
3 April 2009
0.315
6 April 2009
0.357
7 April 2009
0.353
8 April 2009
0.308
9 April 2009
0.366
10 April 2009
ND
13 April 2009
0.311
14 April 2009
0.247
15 April 2009
0.245
16 April 2009
0.308
17 April 2009
0.399
20 April 2009
0.325
21 April 2009
0.374
22 April 2009
0.418
23 April 2009
0.406
24 April 2009
0.459
27 April 2009
0.396
28 April 2009
0.466
29 April 2009
0.526
30 April 2009
0.547
1 May 2009
0.575
4 May 2009
0.544
5 May 2009
0.550
6 May 2009
0.556
7 May 2009
0.646
8 May 2009
0.643
11 May 2009
0.559
12 May 2009
0.549
13 May 2009
0.505
14 May 2009
0.508
15 May 2009
0.534
18 May 2009
0.591
19 May 2009
0.622
20 May 2009
0.579
21 May 2009
0.691
22 May 2009
0.763
25 May 2009
ND
26 May 2009
0.811
27 May 2009
0.975
28 May 2009
0.959
29 May 2009
0.821
1 June 2009
1.020
2 June 2009
0.989
3 June 2009
0.927
4 June 2009
1.065
5 June 2009
1.130
8 June 2009
1.185
9 June 2009
1.167
10 June 2009
1.229
11 June 2009
1.167
12 June 2009
1.127
15 June 2009
1.075
16 June 2009
1.023
17 June 2009
1.035
18 June 2009
1.173
19 June 2009
1.130
22 June 2009
1.072
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
23 June
2009
1.039
24 June 2009
1.074
25 June 2009
0.946
26 June 2009
0.913
29 June 2009
0.900
30 June 2009
0.913
1 July 2009
0.939
2 July 2009
0.887
3 July 2009
ND
6 July 2009
0.895
7 July 2009
0.848
8 July 2009
0.719
9 July 2009
0.816
10 July 2009
0.717
13 July 2009
0.764
14 July 2009
0.860
15 July 2009
0.959
16 July 2009
0.925
17 July 2009
0.991
20 July 2009
0.935
21 July 2009
0.847
22 July 2009
0.907
23 July 2009
1.024
24 July 2009
1.015
27 July 2009
1.057
28 July 2009
1.035
29 July 2009
1.030
30 July 2009
1.011
31 July 2009
0.901
3 August 2009
1.011
4 August 2009
1.029
5 August 2009
1.094
6 August 2009
1.094
7 August 2009
1.163
10 August 2009
1.096
11 August 2009
1.037
12 August 2009
1.067
13 August 2009
0.969
14 August 2009
0.937
17 August 2009
0.872
18 August 2009
0.896
19 August 2009
0.860
20 August 2009
0.844
21 August 2009
0.951
24 August 2009
0.906
25 August 2009
0.875
26 August 2009
0.871
27 August 2009
0.890
28 August 2009
0.876
31 August 2009
0.830
1 September 2009
0.813
2 September 2009
0.747
3 September 2009
0.772
4 September 2009
0.852
7 September 2009
ND
8 September 2009
0.861
9 September 2009
0.867
10 September 2009
0.769
11 September 2009
0.760
14 September 2009
0.826
15 September 2009
0.865
16 September 2009
0.878
17 September 2009
0.835
18 September 2009
0.897
21 September 2009
0.891
22 September 2009
0.872
23 September 2009
0.860
24 September 2009
0.825
25 September 2009
0.777
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
28 September
2009
0.753
29 September 2009
0.753
30 September 2009
0.756
1 October 2009
0.679
2 October 2009
0.696
5 October 2009
0.689
6 October 2009
0.709
7 October 2009
0.644
8 October 2009
0.697
9 October 2009
0.799
12 October 2009
ND
13 October 2009
0.758
14 October 2009
0.833
15 October 2009
0.859
16 October 2009
0.802
19 October 2009
0.788
20 October 2009
0.751
21 October 2009
0.804
22 October 2009
0.825
23 October 2009
0.869
26 October 2009
0.927
27 October 2009
0.846
28 October 2009
0.821
29 October 2009
0.882
30 October 2009
0.792
2 November 2009
0.799
3 November 2009
0.840
4 November 2009
0.889
5 November 2009
0.874
6 November 2009
0.844
9 November 2009
0.827
10 November 2009
0.831
11 November 2009
ND
12 November 2009
0.805
13 November 2009
0.793
16 November 2009
0.712
17 November 2009
0.712
18 November 2009
0.742
19 November 2009
0.735
20 November 2009
0.746
23 November 2009
0.738
24 November 2009
0.692
25 November 2009
0.642
26 November 2009
ND
27 November 2009
0.594
30 November 2009
0.582
1 December 2009
0.627
2 December 2009
0.654
3 December 2009
0.708
4 December 2009
0.768
7 December 2009
0.747
8 December 2009
0.706
9 December 2009
0.729
10 December 2009
0.771
11 December 2009
0.817
14 December 2009
0.824
15 December 2009
0.860
16 December 2009
0.869
17 December 2009
0.792
18 December 2009
0.832
21 December 2009
0.935
22 December 2009
0.981
23 December 2009
0.992
24 December 2009
1.032
25 December 2009
ND
28 December 2009
1.045
29 December 2009
1.025
30 December 2009
1.019
31 December 2009
1.053
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
1 January
2010
ND
4 January 2010
1.057
5 January 2010
1.003
6 January 2010
1.059
7 January 2010
1.056
8 January 2010
1.049
11 January 2010
1.064
12 January 2010
0.979
13 January 2010
1.024
14 January 2010
0.991
15 January 2010
0.955
18 January 2010
ND
19 January 2010
0.978
20 January 2010
0.937
21 January 2010
0.895
22 January 2010
0.897
25 January 2010
0.923
26 January 2010
0.908
27 January 2010
0.916
28 January 2010
0.928
29 January 2010
0.890
1 February 2010
0.915
2 February 2010
0.897
3 February 2010
0.933
4 February 2010
0.859
5 February 2010
0.826
8 February 2010
0.843
9 February 2010
0.873
10 February 2010
0.914
11 February 2010
0.928
12 February 2010
0.903
15 February 2010
ND
16 February 2010
0.884
17 February 2010
0.943
18 February 2010
0.992
19 February 2010
0.983
22 February 2010
0.999
23 February 2010
0.910
24 February 2010
0.919
25 February 2010
0.875
26 February 2010
0.852
1 March 2010
0.844
2 March 2010
0.844
3 March 2010
0.843
4 March 2010
0.817
5 March 2010
0.873
8 March 2010
0.896
9 March 2010
0.885
10 March 2010
0.902
11 March 2010
0.907
12 March 2010
0.892
15 March 2010
0.895
16 March 2010
0.858
17 March 2010
0.852
18 March 2010
0.876
19 March 2010
0.897
22 March 2010
0.867
23 March 2010
0.873
24 March 2010
0.998
25 March 2010
1.057
26 March 2010
1.024
29 March 2010
1.037
30 March 2010
1.034
31 March 2010
1.012
1 April 2010
1.036
2 April 2010
1.088
5 April 2010
1.123
6 April 2010
1.101
7 April 2010
1.037
Loading
8 April[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
2010
1.065
9 April 2010
1.056
12 April 2010
1.019
13 April 2010
0.988
14 April 2010
1.024
15 April 2010
1.007
16 April 2010
0.955
19 April 2010
0.987
20 April 2010
0.985
21 April 2010
0.941
22 April 2010
0.979
23 April 2010
1.002
26 April 2010
0.992
27 April 2010
0.892
28 April 2010
0.965
29 April 2010
0.930
30 April 2010
0.885
3 May 2010
0.904
4 May 2010
0.838
5 May 2010
0.808
6 May 2010
0.702
7 May 2010
0.712
10 May 2010
0.796
11 May 2010
0.793
12 May 2010
0.815
13 May 2010
0.797
14 May 2010
0.713
17 May 2010
0.738
18 May 2010
0.670
19 May 2010
0.660
20 May 2010
0.579
21 May 2010
0.544
24 May 2010
0.571
25 May 2010
0.519
26 May 2010
0.548
27 May 2010
0.657
28 May 2010
0.640
31 May 2010
ND
1 June 2010
0.618
2 June 2010
0.662
3 June 2010
0.690
4 June 2010
0.549
7 June 2010
0.513
8 June 2010
0.525
9 June 2010
0.541
10 June 2010
0.650
11 June 2010
0.580
14 June 2010
0.616
15 June 2010
0.644
16 June 2010
0.607
17 June 2010
0.559
18 June 2010
0.582
21 June 2010
0.598
22 June 2010
0.529
23 June 2010
0.484
24 June 2010
0.490
25 June 2010
0.471
28 June 2010
0.398
29 June 2010
0.348
30 June 2010
0.340
1 July 2010
0.338
2 July 2010
0.372
5 July 2010
ND
6 July 2010
0.328
7 July 2010
0.364
8 July 2010
0.390
9 July 2010
0.421
12 July 2010
0.409
13 July 2010
0.457
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
14 July
2010
0.407
15 July 2010
0.341
16 July 2010
0.293
19 July 2010
0.314
20 July 2010
0.305
21 July 2010
0.251
22 July 2010
0.290
23 July 2010
0.341
26 July 2010
0.345
27 July 2010
0.377
28 July 2010
0.327
29 July 2010
0.307
30 July 2010
0.233
2 August 2010
0.270
3 August 2010
0.203
4 August 2010
0.245
5 August 2010
0.215
6 August 2010
0.152
9 August 2010
0.149
10 August 2010
0.089
11 August 2010
0.041
12 August 2010
0.060
13 August 2010
0.030
16 August 2010
-0.038
17 August 2010
0.012
18 August 2010
0.021
19 August 2010
-0.018
20 August 2010
0.030
23 August 2010
0.005
24 August 2010
-0.072
25 August 2010
-0.034
26 August 2010
-0.068
27 August 2010
0.052
30 August 2010
-0.034
31 August 2010
-0.088
1 September 2010
-0.013
2 September 2010
0.024
3 September 2010
0.096
6 September 2010
ND
7 September 2010
0.017
8 September 2010
0.056
9 September 2010
0.140
10 September 2010
0.175
13 September 2010
0.108
14 September 2010
0.054
15 September 2010
0.094
16 September 2010
0.127
17 September 2010
0.107
20 September 2010
0.073
21 September 2010
-0.014
22 September 2010
-0.050
23 September 2010
-0.042
24 September 2010
0.001
27 September 2010
-0.076
28 September 2010
-0.130
29 September 2010
-0.099
30 September 2010
-0.089
1 October 2010
-0.089
4 October 2010
-0.123
5 October 2010
-0.139
6 October 2010
-0.196
7 October 2010
-0.197
8 October 2010
-0.207
11 October 2010
ND
12 October 2010
-0.192
13 October 2010
-0.191
14 October 2010
-0.145
15 October 2010
-0.092
18 October 2010
-0.164
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
19 October
2010
-0.186
20 October 2010
-0.180
21 October 2010
-0.126
22 October 2010
-0.108
25 October 2010
-0.102
26 October 2010
-0.033
27 October 2010
0.035
28 October 2010
-0.034
29 October 2010
-0.086
1 November 2010
-0.073
2 November 2010
-0.105
3 November 2010
-0.116
4 November 2010
-0.238
5 November 2010
-0.204
8 November 2010
-0.198
9 November 2010
-0.095
10 November 2010
-0.140
11 November 2010
ND
12 November 2010
-0.047
15 November 2010
0.099
16 November 2010
0.068
17 November 2010
0.102
18 November 2010
0.129
19 November 2010
0.122
22 November 2010
0.054
23 November 2010
0.031
24 November 2010
0.157
25 November 2010
ND
26 November 2010
0.120
29 November 2010
0.097
30 November 2010
0.084
1 December 2010
0.219
2 December 2010
0.256
3 December 2010
0.271
6 December 2010
0.199
7 December 2010
0.382
8 December 2010
0.470
9 December 2010
0.480
10 December 2010
0.560
13 December 2010
0.516
14 December 2010
0.678
15 December 2010
0.706
16 December 2010
0.648
17 December 2010
0.555
20 December 2010
0.566
21 December 2010
0.556
22 December 2010
0.573
23 December 2010
0.621
24 December 2010
ND
27 December 2010
0.578
28 December 2010
0.682
29 December 2010
0.576
30 December 2010
0.600
31 December 2010
0.553
3 January 2011
0.582
4 January 2011
0.572
5 January 2011
0.675
6 January 2011
0.625
7 January 2011
0.547
10 January 2011
0.520
11 January 2011
0.562
12 January 2011
0.561
13 January 2011
0.512
14 January 2011
0.529
17 January 2011
ND
18 January 2011
0.557
19 January 2011
0.546
20 January 2011
0.632
21 January 2011
0.608
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
24 January
2011
0.594
25 January 2011
0.535
26 January 2011
0.603
27 January 2011
0.583
28 January 2011
0.532
31 January 2011
0.571
1 February 2011
0.620
2 February 2011
0.657
3 February 2011
0.714
4 February 2011
0.798
7 February 2011
0.806
8 February 2011
0.869
9 February 2011
0.825
10 February 2011
0.864
11 February 2011
0.823
14 February 2011
0.809
15 February 2011
0.803
16 February 2011
0.809
17 February 2011
0.782
18 February 2011
0.790
21 February 2011
ND
22 February 2011
0.677
23 February 2011
0.706
24 February 2011
0.686
25 February 2011
0.658
28 February 2011
0.651
1 March 2011
0.647
2 March 2011
0.685
3 March 2011
0.774
4 March 2011
0.708
7 March 2011
0.719
8 March 2011
0.748
9 March 2011
0.687
10 March 2011
0.604
11 March 2011
0.626
14 March 2011
0.583
15 March 2011
0.556
16 March 2011
0.461
17 March 2011
0.482
18 March 2011
0.526
21 March 2011
0.571
22 March 2011
0.581
23 March 2011
0.599
24 March 2011
0.657
25 March 2011
0.684
28 March 2011
0.698
29 March 2011
0.718
30 March 2011
0.692
31 March 2011
0.716
1 April 2011
0.710
4 April 2011
0.697
5 April 2011
0.740
6 April 2011
0.785
7 April 2011
0.799
8 April 2011
0.810
11 April 2011
0.803
12 April 2011
0.746
13 April 2011
0.723
14 April 2011
0.731
15 April 2011
0.680
18 April 2011
0.650
19 April 2011
0.643
20 April 2011
0.686
21 April 2011
0.674
22 April 2011
ND
25 April 2011
0.642
26 April 2011
0.604
27 April 2011
0.630
28 April 2011
0.590
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
29 April
2011
0.565
2 May 2011
0.561
3 May 2011
0.542
4 May 2011
0.526
5 May 2011
0.465
6 May 2011
0.468
9 May 2011
0.449
10 May 2011
0.493
11 May 2011
0.468
12 May 2011
0.489
13 May 2011
0.455
16 May 2011
0.432
17 May 2011
0.406
18 May 2011
0.448
19 May 2011
0.444
20 May 2011
0.424
23 May 2011
0.395
24 May 2011
0.389
25 May 2011
0.393
26 May 2011
0.336
27 May 2011
0.336
30 May 2011
ND
31 May 2011
0.313
1 June 2011
0.230
2 June 2011
0.277
3 June 2011
0.239
6 June 2011
0.240
7 June 2011
0.251
8 June 2011
0.199
9 June 2011
0.248
10 June 2011
0.229
13 June 2011
0.245
14 June 2011
0.334
15 June 2011
0.218
16 June 2011
0.176
17 June 2011
0.193
20 June 2011
0.210
21 June 2011
0.234
22 June 2011
0.246
23 June 2011
0.175
24 June 2011
0.122
27 June 2011
0.162
28 June 2011
0.263
29 June 2011
0.351
30 June 2011
0.407
1 July 2011
0.445
4 July 2011
ND
5 July 2011
0.385
6 July 2011
0.349
7 July 2011
0.396
8 July 2011
0.277
11 July 2011
0.204
12 July 2011
0.185
13 July 2011
0.164
14 July 2011
0.213
15 July 2011
0.175
18 July 2011
0.165
19 July 2011
0.140
20 July 2011
0.183
21 July 2011
0.247
22 July 2011
0.208
25 July 2011
0.227
26 July 2011
0.189
27 July 2011
0.198
28 July 2011
0.176
29 July 2011
0.032
1 August 2011
-0.002
2 August 2011
-0.071
3 August 2011
-0.074
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
4 August
2011
-0.142
5 August 2011
-0.083
8 August 2011
-0.206
9 August 2011
-0.386
10 August 2011
-0.392
11 August 2011
-0.261
12 August 2011
-0.342
15 August 2011
-0.309
16 August 2011
-0.354
17 August 2011
-0.402
18 August 2011
-0.450
19 August 2011
-0.449
22 August 2011
-0.418
23 August 2011
-0.393
24 August 2011
-0.281
25 August 2011
-0.336
26 August 2011
-0.369
29 August 2011
-0.305
30 August 2011
-0.379
31 August 2011
-0.343
1 September 2011
-0.404
2 September 2011
-0.492
5 September 2011
ND
6 September 2011
-0.504
7 September 2011
-0.450
8 September 2011
-0.489
9 September 2011
-0.542
12 September 2011
-0.520
13 September 2011
-0.479
14 September 2011
-0.448
15 September 2011
-0.390
16 September 2011
-0.394
19 September 2011
-0.484
20 September 2011
-0.490
21 September 2011
-0.531
22 September 2011
-0.645
23 September 2011
-0.542
26 September 2011
-0.490
27 September 2011
-0.425
28 September 2011
-0.416
29 September 2011
-0.439
30 September 2011
-0.479
3 October 2011
-0.570
4 October 2011
-0.553
5 October 2011
-0.469
6 October 2011
-0.405
7 October 2011
-0.335
10 October 2011
ND
11 October 2011
-0.277
12 October 2011
-0.232
13 October 2011
-0.281
14 October 2011
-0.239
17 October 2011
-0.299
18 October 2011
-0.300
19 October 2011
-0.319
20 October 2011
-0.299
21 October 2011
-0.280
24 October 2011
-0.259
25 October 2011
-0.353
26 October 2011
-0.281
27 October 2011
-0.142
28 October 2011
-0.212
31 October 2011
-0.346
1 November 2011
-0.463
2 November 2011
-0.457
3 November 2011
-0.416
4 November 2011
-0.442
7 November 2011
-0.461
8 November 2011
-0.408
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
9 November
2011
-0.481
10 November 2011
-0.440
11 November 2011
ND
14 November 2011
-0.442
15 November 2011
-0.429
16 November 2011
-0.466
17 November 2011
-0.501
18 November 2011
-0.446
21 November 2011
-0.474
22 November 2011
-0.490
23 November 2011
-0.539
24 November 2011
ND
25 November 2011
-0.475
28 November 2011
-0.478
29 November 2011
-0.453
30 November 2011
-0.399
1 December 2011
-0.388
2 December 2011
-0.437
5 December 2011
-0.438
6 December 2011
-0.410
7 December 2011
-0.462
8 December 2011
-0.496
9 December 2011
-0.437
12 December 2011
-0.465
13 December 2011
-0.512
14 December 2011
-0.536
15 December 2011
-0.528
16 December 2011
-0.574
19 December 2011
-0.601
20 December 2011
-0.514
21 December 2011
-0.486
22 December 2011
-0.488
23 December 2011
-0.436
26 December 2011
ND
27 December 2011
-0.437
28 December 2011
-0.502
29 December 2011
-0.525
30 December 2011
-0.545
2 January 2012
ND
3 January 2012
-0.491
4 January 2012
-0.474
5 January 2012
-0.475
6 January 2012
-0.498
9 January 2012
-0.508
10 January 2012
-0.490
11 January 2012
-0.540
12 January 2012
-0.526
13 January 2012
-0.572
16 January 2012
ND
17 January 2012
-0.584
18 January 2012
-0.556
19 January 2012
-0.489
20 January 2012
-0.455
23 January 2012
-0.426
24 January 2012
-0.439
25 January 2012
-0.517
26 January 2012
-0.565
27 January 2012
-0.590
30 January 2012
-0.627
31 January 2012
-0.660
1 February 2012
-0.635
2 February 2012
-0.657
3 February 2012
-0.576
6 February 2012
-0.606
7 February 2012
-0.547
8 February 2012
-0.546
9 February 2012
-0.518
10 February 2012
-0.576
13 February 2012
-0.552
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
14 February
2012
-0.600
15 February 2012
-0.589
16 February 2012
-0.538
17 February 2012
-0.518
20 February 2012
ND
21 February 2012
-0.487
22 February 2012
-0.524
23 February 2012
-0.543
24 February 2012
-0.537
27 February 2012
-0.582
28 February 2012
-0.577
29 February 2012
-0.544
1 March 2012
-0.501
2 March 2012
-0.543
5 March 2012
-0.529
6 March 2012
-0.566
7 March 2012
-0.552
8 March 2012
-0.515
9 March 2012
-0.502
12 March 2012
-0.505
13 March 2012
-0.429
14 March 2012
-0.300
15 March 2012
-0.305
16 March 2012
-0.279
19 March 2012
-0.215
20 March 2012
-0.213
21 March 2012
-0.269
22 March 2012
-0.283
23 March 2012
-0.313
26 March 2012
-0.316
27 March 2012
-0.369
28 March 2012
-0.359
29 March 2012
-0.394
30 March 2012
-0.352
2 April 2012
-0.365
3 April 2012
-0.303
4 April 2012
-0.345
5 April 2012
-0.390
6 April 2012
-0.501
9 April 2012
-0.508
10 April 2012
-0.545
11 April 2012
-0.514
12 April 2012
-0.484
13 April 2012
-0.529
16 April 2012
-0.548
17 April 2012
-0.515
18 April 2012
-0.535
19 April 2012
-0.548
20 April 2012
-0.539
23 April 2012
-0.567
24 April 2012
-0.541
25 April 2012
-0.533
26 April 2012
-0.562
27 April 2012
-0.571
30 April 2012
-0.582
1 May 2012
-0.561
2 May 2012
-0.582
3 May 2012
-0.575
4 May 2012
-0.616
7 May 2012
-0.610
8 May 2012
-0.638
9 May 2012
-0.645
10 May 2012
-0.623
11 May 2012
-0.658
14 May 2012
-0.696
15 May 2012
-0.702
16 May 2012
-0.698
17 May 2012
-0.732
18 May 2012
-0.723
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
21 May
2012
-0.701
22 May 2012
-0.675
23 May 2012
-0.711
24 May 2012
-0.678
25 May 2012
-0.696
28 May 2012
ND
29 May 2012
-0.701
30 May 2012
-0.776
31 May 2012
-0.806
1 June 2012
-0.883
4 June 2012
-0.819
5 June 2012
-0.795
6 June 2012
-0.738
7 June 2012
-0.743
8 June 2012
-0.755
11 June 2012
-0.788
12 June 2012
-0.735
13 June 2012
-0.785
14 June 2012
-0.752
15 June 2012
-0.788
18 June 2012
-0.790
19 June 2012
-0.758
20 June 2012
-0.743
21 June 2012
-0.758
22 June 2012
-0.714
25 June 2012
-0.764
26 June 2012
-0.744
27 June 2012
-0.757
28 June 2012
-0.801
29 June 2012
-0.751
2 July 2012
-0.810
3 July 2012
-0.772
4 July 2012
ND
5 July 2012
-0.794
6 July 2012
-0.823
9 July 2012
-0.849
10 July 2012
-0.851
11 July 2012
-0.846
12 July 2012
-0.860
13 July 2012
-0.849
16 July 2012
-0.867
17 July 2012
-0.848
18 July 2012
-0.858
19 July 2012
-0.840
20 July 2012
-0.877
23 July 2012
-0.893
24 July 2012
-0.916
25 July 2012
-0.917
26 July 2012
-0.897
27 July 2012
-0.811
30 July 2012
-0.848
31 July 2012
-0.861
1 August 2012
-0.817
2 August 2012
-0.859
3 August 2012
-0.786
6 August 2012
-0.802
7 August 2012
-0.744
8 August 2012
-0.735
9 August 2012
-0.728
10 August 2012
-0.753
13 August 2012
-0.757
14 August 2012
-0.701
15 August 2012
-0.644
16 August 2012
-0.614
17 August 2012
-0.631
20 August 2012
-0.633
21 August 2012
-0.645
22 August 2012
-0.720
23 August 2012
-0.744
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
24 August
2012
-0.735
27 August 2012
-0.765
28 August 2012
-0.773
29 August 2012
-0.760
30 August 2012
-0.784
31 August 2012
-0.839
3 September 2012
ND
4 September 2012
-0.819
5 September 2012
-0.815
6 September 2012
-0.755
7 September 2012
-0.777
10 September 2012
-0.767
11 September 2012
-0.756
12 September 2012
-0.706
13 September 2012
-0.744
14 September 2012
-0.648
17 September 2012
-0.665
18 September 2012
-0.690
19 September 2012
-0.708
20 September 2012
-0.707
21 September 2012
-0.728
24 September 2012
-0.753
25 September 2012
-0.779
26 September 2012
-0.823
27 September 2012
-0.807
28 September 2012
-0.812
1 October 2012
-0.817
2 October 2012
-0.821
3 October 2012
-0.828
4 October 2012
-0.789
5 October 2012
-0.747
8 October 2012
ND
9 October 2012
-0.758
10 October 2012
-0.774
11 October 2012
-0.777
12 October 2012
-0.780
15 October 2012
-0.777
16 October 2012
-0.738
17 October 2012
-0.664
18 October 2012
-0.643
19 October 2012
-0.685
22 October 2012
-0.655
23 October 2012
-0.687
24 October 2012
-0.684
25 October 2012
-0.631
26 October 2012
-0.693
29 October 2012
-0.725
30 October 2012
ND
31 October 2012
-0.737
1 November 2012
-0.721
2 November 2012
-0.721
5 November 2012
-0.745
6 November 2012
-0.696
7 November 2012
-0.781
8 November 2012
-0.816
9 November 2012
-0.815
12 November 2012
ND
13 November 2012
-0.834
14 November 2012
-0.827
15 November 2012
-0.834
16 November 2012
-0.835
19 November 2012
-0.811
20 November 2012
-0.777
21 November 2012
-0.756
22 November 2012
ND
23 November 2012
-0.749
26 November 2012
-0.776
27 November 2012
-0.793
28 November 2012
-0.810
Loading
[MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
29 November
2012
-0.816
30 November 2012
-0.819
3 December 2012
-0.810
4 December 2012
-0.819
5 December 2012
-0.836
6 December 2012
-0.846
7 December 2012
-0.813
Note: Term premia are estimated by a three-factor term structure model combining Treasury yields with SPF interest rate forecasts.
Source: Board.
Bottom-right panel
Corporate Bond Yields
Monthly
Percent
Period
Ten-year High-Yield
Ten-year BBB
January 1997
9.85
7.44
February 1997
9.58
7.27
March 1997
9.71
7.52
April 1997
9.87
7.72
May 1997
9.55
7.56
June 1997
9.40
7.34
July 1997
9.23
7.07
August 1997
9.15
7.14
September 1997
9.10
7.05
October 1997
8.96
6.89
November 1997
9.06
6.84
December 1997
8.98
6.80
January 1998
8.90
6.56
February 1998
8.87
6.66
March 1998
8.88
6.74
April 1998
8.87
6.72
May 1998
9.02
6.74
June 1998
9.18
6.60
July 1998
9.26
6.61
August 1998
9.62
6.64
September 1998
10.33
6.61
October 1998
10.70
6.50
November 1998
10.36
6.86
December 1998
10.10
6.58
January 1999
10.13
6.64
February 1999
10.16
6.79
March 1999
10.24
6.96
April 1999
9.98
6.85
May 1999
10.23
7.16
June 1999
10.56
7.59
July 1999
10.56
7.52
August 1999
10.73
7.77
September 1999
10.86
7.84
October 1999
10.99
7.98
November 1999
10.90
7.83
December 1999
10.75
8.01
January 2000
11.02
8.29
February 2000
11.14
8.19
March 2000
11.55
8.13
April 2000
11.82
8.14
May 2000
12.05
8.76
June 2000
12.02
8.43
July 2000
12.02
8.27
August 2000
12.05
8.09
September 2000
11.86
8.08
October 2000
12.45
8.03
November 2000
12.99
8.01
December 2000
13.18
7.68
January 2001
12.33
7.55
February 2001
11.61
7.45
March 2001
11.63
7.31
April 2001
12.17
7.52
11.85
7.54
11.85
7.41
May 2001
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June 2001
July 2001
11.88
7.41
August 2001
11.56
7.18
September 2001
11.94
7.19
October 2001
11.93
7.04
November 2001
11.08
7.11
December 2001
11.12
7.42
January 2002
10.93
7.43
February 2002
11.00
7.54
March 2002
10.62
7.79
April 2002
10.60
7.69
May 2002
10.54
7.73
June 2002
11.05
7.40
July 2002
11.43
7.50
August 2002
11.72
7.34
September 2002
11.49
6.97
October 2002
12.13
7.31
November 2002
11.39
7.05
December 2002
11.08
6.76
January 2003
10.43
6.63
February 2003
10.45
6.47
March 2003
10.14
6.30
April 2003
9.51
6.15
May 2003
9.02
5.55
June 2003
8.71
5.26
July 2003
8.78
5.79
August 2003
9.26
6.29
September 2003
8.72
5.99
October 2003
8.44
5.92
November 2003
8.28
5.85
December 2003
7.97
5.75
January 2004
7.65
5.54
February 2004
7.86
5.52
March 2004
7.84
5.31
April 2004
7.99
5.79
May 2004
8.51
6.23
June 2004
8.47
6.24
July 2004
8.23
5.99
August 2004
8.11
5.78
September 2004
7.85
5.54
October 2004
7.71
5.46
November 2004
7.46
5.46
December 2004
7.41
5.41
January 2005
7.46
5.38
February 2005
7.31
5.27
March 2005
7.49
5.62
April 2005
7.91
5.61
May 2005
8.27
5.47
June 2005
7.92
5.30
July 2005
7.77
5.45
August 2005
7.76
5.50
September 2005
7.89
5.50
October 2005
8.20
5.81
November 2005
8.35
5.94
December 2005
8.32
5.89
January 2006
8.20
5.83
February 2006
8.17
5.95
March 2006
8.17
6.10
April 2006
8.23
6.37
May 2006
8.31
6.47
June 2006
8.59
6.59
July 2006
8.69
6.62
August 2006
8.61
6.41
September 2006
8.51
6.27
October 2006
8.39
6.26
November 2006
8.27
6.07
December 2006
8.21
6.03
January 2007
8.21
6.20
February 2007
8.05
6.11
8.10
6.01
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2007
April 2007
8.03
6.15
May 2007
7.93
6.18
June 2007
8.21
6.56
July 2007
8.74
6.58
August 2007
9.08
6.56
September 2007
8.88
6.46
October 2007
8.64
6.36
November 2007
9.09
6.27
December 2007
9.28
6.47
January 2008
9.79
6.33
February 2008
10.05
6.59
March 2008
10.31
6.70
April 2008
10.02
6.81
May 2008
9.72
6.77
June 2008
9.95
6.95
July 2008
10.43
7.11
August 2008
10.56
7.15
September 2008
10.99
7.33
October 2008
14.85
9.11
November 2008
16.59
9.70
December 2008
17.47
9.41
January 2009
14.95
9.05
February 2009
14.40
8.82
March 2009
15.86
9.00
April 2009
13.50
8.70
May 2009
13.12
8.06
June 2009
12.21
7.71
July 2009
11.65
7.20
August 2009
10.77
6.66
September 2009
10.17
6.39
October 2009
9.63
6.21
November 2009
9.47
6.13
December 2009
9.28
6.06
January 2010
8.69
5.78
February 2010
8.92
5.84
March 2010
8.66
5.73
April 2010
8.37
5.64
May 2010
8.76
5.47
June 2010
8.98
5.55
July 2010
8.55
5.30
August 2010
8.24
4.97
September 2010
8.03
4.95
October 2010
7.58
4.75
November 2010
7.56
4.91
December 2010
7.78
5.42
January 2011
7.57
5.38
February 2011
7.44
5.48
March 2011
7.45
5.34
April 2011
7.36
5.33
May 2011
7.27
5.08
June 2011
7.53
5.05
July 2011
7.43
5.04
August 2011
7.99
4.71
September 2011
8.25
4.89
October 2011
8.39
5.20
November 2011
8.06
4.84
December 2011
7.96
4.90
January 2012
7.49
4.80
February 2012
7.20
4.63
March 2012
7.22
4.66
April 2012
7.29
4.60
May 2012
7.30
4.49
June 2012
7.48
4.48
July 2012
7.12
4.23
August 2012
6.95
4.20
September 2012
6.70
4.11
October 2012
6.61
3.89
November 2012
6.62
3.85
6.36
3.86
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December
2012
Note: Staff estimates of smooth yield curves based on Merrill Lynch bond data.
Exhibit 2
Developments in Business Finance
Top-left panel
Gross Nonfinancial Corporate Bond Issuance
Monthly Rate
Billions of dollars
Period
Speculative Grade
Investment Grade
Total
1998
9.13
14.74
23.87
1999
6.86
15.96
22.82
2000
3.85
16.01
19.86
2001
7.96
28.98
36.94
2002
5.09
18.35
23.44
2003
10.90
16.97
27.87
2004
10.62
10.19
20.81
2005
6.79
9.46
16.25
2006
10.07
15.87
25.94
2007
9.76
20.09
29.85
2008
2.88
22.47
25.35
2009
10.32
28.42
38.74
2010
17.41
21.65
39.06
2011
12.80
25.54
38.34
2012:H1
15.60
28.01
43.61
2012:Q3
23.40
33.05
56.45
October 2012
31.30
25.61
56.91
November 2012
19.86
74.05
93.91
Source: Thomson Financial.
Top-right panel
Use of Proceeds for HY Issues
Monthly Rate
Billions of dollars
Period
Recapitalization/Dividends
Refinancing
LBO
M&A
Other
Total
2005
0.58
3.33
1.42
1.05
0.56
6.94
2006
0.62
3.89
2.59
2.57
0.93
10.61
2007
0.52
3.35
3.58
2.17
0.96
10.58
2008
0.11
2.52
1.64
0.25
0.26
4.79
2009
0.59
10.09
0.00
0.71
1.39
12.77
2010
1.37
13.28
0.97
2.97
1.82
20.40
2011
1.81
8.63
1.27
2.79
1.48
15.98
2012:Q1
2.57
16.35
1.42
3.01
3.60
26.95
2012:Q2
1.29
7.93
1.33
2.89
0.94
14.38
2012:Q3
0.93
18.37
1.09
4.05
3.06
27.49
October 2012
4.69
16.38
1.40
6.55
1.82
30.85
Note: October 2012 values are approximate.
Source: Standard and Poors.
Middle-left panel
Institutional Issuance of Leveraged Loans
Monthly Rate
Billions of dollars
Period
Refinancings
New money
Total
1998
3.74
0.00
3.74
1999
4.61
0.00
4.61
2000
4.17
0.00
4.17
2001
2.66
0.00
2.66
2002
5.31
2.95
8.27
2003
5.80
4.06
9.87
2004
9.77
8.85
18.62
2005
8.39
11.69
20.08
7.67
22.84
30.51
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2007
9.23
26.26
35.48
2008
0.84
4.96
5.80
2009
2.67
2.03
4.69
2010
8.53
8.69
17.22
2011
19.90
2.33
22.22
2012:Q1
14.39
8.30
22.69
2012:Q2
14.48
9.90
24.37
2012:Q3
8.40
9.33
17.73
October 2012
ND
ND
59.47
November 2012
ND
ND
36.07
Note: October and November 2012 values are approximate.
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC LoanConnector.
Middle-right panel
Covenant-lite Issuance
Monthly Rate
Period
Billions of dollars
2005:Q1
0.02
2005:Q2
0.50
2005:Q3
0.00
2005:Q4
0.02
2006:Q1
1.71
2006:Q2
1.85
2006:Q3
1.52
2006:Q4
2.49
2007:Q1
14.08
2007:Q2
15.97
2007:Q3
5.46
2007:Q4
0.44
2008:Q1
0.00
2008:Q2
0.00
2008:Q3
1.26
2008:Q4
0.00
2009:Q1
0.00
2009:Q2
0.00
2009:Q3
0.00
2009:Q4
0.28
2010:Q1
0.63
2010:Q2
0.17
2010:Q3
0.23
2010:Q4
1.21
2011:Q1
7.31
2011:Q2
6.06
2011:Q3
3.08
2011:Q4
1.02
2012:Q1
1.87
2012:Q2
5.87
2012:Q3
3.78
Source: LPC LoanConnector.
Bottom panel
Summary
Developments to date may not signal a notable increase in systemic risk.
Increased demand for corporate credits reflects, in part, interest on the part of long-term investors.
Dealers appear to be better managing the pipeline of deals.
Market participants continue to characterize conditions as significantly tighter than in 2006 and 2007.
Some situations bear watching.
Potential for a disorderly deleveraging could rise if available borrowing capacity were taken up quickly.
Reversal of inflows into corporate bond and loan funds could strain these markets.
Some institutions could "reach for yield" in new and difficult-to-detect ways.
Overall, low interest rates may be contributing to some increase in willingness to bear risk.
Appendix 5: Materials used by Ms. Roush
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Material for Briefing on the
Summary of Economic Projections
Jennifer E. Roush
December 11, 2012
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
Exhibit 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-15 and over the longer run
Change in real GDP
Percent
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.2
-3.3
-0.1
2.4
2.0
-
-
-
-
-
Upper End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
2.0
3.2
4.0
4.2
3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
1.8
3.0
3.5
3.7
2.5
Lower End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
1.7
2.3
3.0
3.0
2.3
Lower End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
1.6
2.0
2.8
2.5
2.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Longer run
4.8
6.9
9.9
9.6
8.7
-
-
-
-
-
Upper End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
8.0
7.8
7.4
6.8
6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
7.9
7.7
7.3
6.6
6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
7.8
7.4
6.8
6.0
5.2
Lower End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
7.7
6.9
6.1
5.7
5.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Longer run
3.5
1.7
1.4
1.5
2.5
-
-
-
-
-
Upper End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
1.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.0
Lower End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
1.6
1.3
1.4
1.5
2.0
2015
Actual
Longer run
Unemployment rate
Percent
Actual
PCE inflation
Percent
Actual
Core PCE inflation
Percent
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.7
-
-
-
-
Upper End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
Upper End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency
-
-
-
-
-
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
Lower End of Range
-
-
-
-
-
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.7
Actual
Note: The data for the actual values of the variables are annual.
Exhibit 2. Economic projections for 2013-2015 and over the longer run (percent)
Change in real GDP
2013
2014
2015
Longer run
Central Tendency
2.3 to 3.0
3.0 to 3.5
3.0 to 3.7
2.3 to 2.5
September projections
2.5 to 3.0
3.0 to 3.8
3.0 to 3.8
2.3 to 2.5
Range
2.0 to 3.2
2.8 to 4.0
2.5 to 4.2
2.2 to 3.0
September projections
2.3 to 3.5
2.7 to 4.1
2.5 to 4.2
2.2 to 3.0
Memo: Tealbook
2.5
3.2
3.6
2.5
September Tealbook
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.5
Unemployment rate
2013
2014
2015
Longer run
Central Tendency
7.4 to 7.7
6.8 to 7.3
6.0 to 6.6
5.2 to 6.0
September projections
7.6 to 7.9
6.7 to 7.3
6.0 to 6.8
5.2 to 6.0
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Range
6.9 to 7.8
6.1 to 7.4
5.7 to 6.8
5.0 to 6.0
September projections
7.0 to 8.0
6.3 to 7.5
5.7 to 6.9
5.0 to 6.3
Memo: Tealbook
7.8
7.4
6.5
5.2
September Tealbook
8.0
7.6
6.7
5.2
PCE inflation
2013
2014
2015
Longer run
Central Tendency
1.3 to 2.0
1.5 to 2.0
1.7 to 2.0
2.0 to 2.0
September projections
1.6 to 2.0
1.6 to 2.0
1.8 to 2.0
2.0 to 2.0
Range
1.3 to 2.0
1.4 to 2.2
1.5 to 2.2
2.0 to 2.0
September projections
1.5 to 2.1
1.6 to 2.2
1.8 to 2.3
2.0 to 2.0
Memo: Tealbook
1.3
1.4
1.5
2.0
September Tealbook
1.4
1.4
1.5
2.0
Core PCE inflation
2013
2014
2015
Central Tendency
1.6 to 1.9
1.6 to 2.0
1.8 to 2.0
September projections
1.7 to 2.0
1.8 to 2.0
1.9 to 2.0
Range
1.5 to 2.0
1.5 to 2.0
1.7 to 2.2
September projections
1.6 to 2.0
1.6 to 2.2
1.8 to 2.3
Memo: Tealbook
1.6
1.6
1.7
September Tealbook
1.6
1.6
1.7
Note: The changes in real GDP and inflation are measured Q4/Q4.
Exhibit 3. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy
Appropriate timing of policy firming
Number of participants
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
December projections
0
2
3
13
1
September projections
1
3
2
12
1
Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from
its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year.
Appropriate pace of policy firming
Number of participants with projected targets
Target federal funds rate at year-end
(December projections, percent)
0.00 - 0.37
0.38 - 0.62
2012
2013
2014
2015
19
17
14
1
1
1
5
0.63 - 0.87
0.88 - 1.12
Longer run
3
1
3
1.13 - 1.37
2
1.38 - 1.62
2
1.63 - 1.87
1
1.88 - 2.12
1
2.13 - 2.37
2.38 - 2.62
2.63 - 2.87
1
1
2.88 - 3.12
1
3.13 - 3.37
3.38 - 3.62
1
1
3.63 - 3.87
1
3
3.88 - 4.12
5
4.13 - 4.37
4.38 - 4.62
6
1
3
Note: In the middle panel, each circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate
at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.
Appropriate pace of policy firming
Number of participants with projected targets
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Target federal funds rate at year-end
(September projections, percent)
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.00 - 0.37
18
15
13
1
0.38 - 0.62
1
2
2
1
3
0.63 - 0.87
0.88 - 1.12
Longer run
4
1.13 - 1.37
1.38 - 1.62
2
1.63 - 1.87
1
3
2
1.88 - 2.12
2.13 - 2.37
2.38 - 2.62
1
2
2.63 - 2.87
2.88 - 3.12
1
1
3.13 - 3.37
3.38 - 3.62
1
1
3.63 - 3.87
1
2
3.88 - 4.12
1
6
4.13 - 4.37
5
4.38 - 4.62
1
4
Note: In the lower panel, each circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate
at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.
Exhibit 4. Scatterplot of unemployment and PCE inflation rates in the initial year of policy firming (in
percent)
Projections
Unemployment Rate
PCE inflation
2013
Year of Firming
6.9
2.0
2013
7.4
2.0
2014
6.1
2.0
2014
7.0
2.0
2014
7.3
2.0
2015
5.7
2.0
2015
6.0
1.6
2015
6.0
2.2
2015
6.1
1.9
2015
6.2
1.6
2015
6.2
1.7
2015
6.3
1.7
2015
6.3
2.0
2015
6.5
1.5
2015
6.5
1.9
2015
6.5
1.9
2015
6.7
1.8
2015
6.8
2.2
2016
5.5
2.2
Note: When the projections of two or more participants are identical, larger markers, which represent one participant each, are used so that each projection can be seen.
Exhibit 5. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections
Histograms, eight panels.
Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants
Lower
Broadly similar
Higher
December projections
0
1
18
September projections
0
2
17
Uncertainty about the unemployment rate
Number of participants
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Lower
Broadly similar
Higher
December projections
0
2
17
September projections
0
2
17
Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants
Lower
Broadly similar
Higher
December projections
2
10
7
September projections
1
10
8
Uncertainty about core PCE inflation
Number of participants
Lower
Broadly similar
Higher
December projections
2
10
7
September projections
2
9
8
Risks to GDP growth
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
Broadly balanced
Weighted to upside
December projections
13
6
0
September projections
14
5
0
Risks to the unemployment rate
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
Broadly balanced
Weighted to upside
December projections
0
6
13
September projections
0
6
13
Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
Broadly balanced
Weighted to upside
December projections
3
14
2
September projections
4
12
3
Risks to core PCE inflation
Number of participants
Weighted to downside
Broadly balanced
Weighted to upside
December projections
3
14
2
September projections
4
12
3
Appendix 6: Materials used by Chairman Bernanke
Benefit-cost analysis
B(E, π), C(x) benefits and costs depend on the size of the balance sheet (x)
E = ex + g employment depends on size of balance sheet plus other factors (g)---suppressing the funds rate
We are likely to learn more about benefits, costs, efficacy, and other factors as x increases
Optimality (ex post)
(
)
( )
B ′ ex ∗ + g e = C ′ x ∗ suppressing the inflation term (assume in region where more stimulus is helpful; infl expectations captured in C)
E
∗
∗
= ex + g,
dx
dg
< 0,
dx
de
> 0 if e small, otherwise negative
Evaluating benefits and costs at beginning of program
Benefits
1. Forecast-based; unemployment and inflation miss in same direction through 2015
2. Efficacy assessment
Costs
1. Market function
Loading [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/jax.js
2. Fiscal/capital gains and losses
3. Exit (balance sheet normalization)
4. Financial stability
Exiting from the program: Rhetoric should focus on ongoing evaluation of efficacy and costs
Case 1. Seeing progress
a. Because e is higher: "income effect" ( − ) versus "substitution effect" ( + )
b. Because g is higher: can do less than expected, partially offsetting increase in g
Case 2. Limited progress, no identifiable exogenous factor
Presumption that e is low, costs of program increasing
Efficacy, cost language sets predicate for ultimate winddown with E ∗ still low
Case 3. Progress impeded by identifiable factors g (e.g., fiscal cliff)
a. If e appears substantial despite the headwinds, do more, but not enough to offset the effects of adverse factors on unemployment ("temper
expectations" for labor market improvement)
b. If believe the limited progress is primarily due to low e, curtail and pursue other approaches
Appendix 7: Materials used by Mr. English
Material for
FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives
Bill English
December 11-12, 2012
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
Federal Reserve Security Purchases and Holdings
Top-left panel
Modal Unemployment Rate at Expected End of Security Purchases: Dealer Survey
Expected End of Security Purchases
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
Alternative
2012:Q4
7.96
Alternative C
2013:Q2
7.89
Alternative B
2013:Q3
7.83
2013:Q4
7.10
2013:Q4
7.20
2013:Q4
7.50
2013:Q4
7.70
2013:Q4
7.77
2013:Q4
7.80
2013:Q4
8.00
2014:Q1
7.23
2014:Q1
7.30
2014:Q1
7.40
2014:Q1
7.50
2014:Q1
7.60
2014:Q2
7.10
2014:Q3
7.05
2014:Q3
7.30
2014:Q4
7.20
2015:Q2
6.75
2015:Q4
6.50
2015:Q4
6.50
Alternative A
Note. Primary dealer unemployment rates are interpolated from average Q4 values reported in the survey. Not plotted are two primary dealers who did not report an unemployment rate for
sufficiently long horizons. A larger dot denotes two observations.
Top-right panel
Total Projected SOMA Security Holdings
Billions of dollars
Period
Alternative A
Alternative B
Alternative C
Median dealer projection
January 2006
748.82
748.82
748.82
748.82
February 2006
754.68
754.68
754.68
754.68
March 2006
758.54
758.54
758.54
758.54
April 2006
759.69
759.69
759.69
759.69
May 2006
762.41
762.41
762.41
762.41
June 2006
766.36
766.36
766.36
766.36
July 2006
764.81
764.81
764.81
764.81
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August 2006
766.74
766.74
766.74
766.74
September 2006
768.92
768.92
768.92
768.92
October 2006
768.49
768.49
768.49
768.49
November 2006
772.60
772.60
772.60
772.60
December 2006
778.91
778.91
778.91
778.91
January 2007
778.86
778.86
778.86
778.86
February 2007
780.79
780.79
780.79
780.79
March 2007
780.90
780.90
780.90
780.90
April 2007
787.19
787.19
787.19
787.19
May 2007
790.27
790.27
790.27
790.27
June 2007
790.52
790.52
790.52
790.52
July 2007
790.80
790.80
790.80
790.80
August 2007
779.64
779.64
779.64
779.64
September 2007
779.63
779.63
779.63
779.63
October 2007
779.59
779.59
779.59
779.59
November 2007
779.70
779.70
779.70
779.70
December 2007
740.61
740.61
740.61
740.61
January 2008
713.38
713.38
713.38
713.38
February 2008
713.35
713.35
713.35
713.35
March 2008
591.23
591.23
591.23
591.23
April 2008
548.69
548.69
548.69
548.69
May 2008
486.90
486.90
486.90
486.90
June 2008
478.84
478.84
478.84
478.84
July 2008
479.24
479.24
479.24
479.24
August 2008
479.70
479.70
479.70
479.70
September 2008
491.13
491.13
491.13
491.13
October 2008
490.09
490.09
490.09
490.09
November 2008
488.62
488.62
488.62
488.62
December 2008
495.63
495.63
495.63
495.63
January 2009
510.79
510.79
510.79
510.79
February 2009
581.68
581.68
581.68
581.68
March 2009
779.35
779.35
779.35
779.35
April 2009
983.18
983.18
983.18
983.18
May 2009
1,113.52
1,113.52
1,113.52
1,113.52
June 2009
1,215.52
1,215.52
1,215.52
1,215.52
July 2009
1,354.07
1,354.07
1,354.07
1,354.07
August 2009
1,491.50
1,491.50
1,491.50
1,491.50
September 2009
1,592.70
1,592.70
1,592.70
1,592.70
October 2009
1,697.80
1,697.80
1,697.80
1,697.80
November 2009
1,783.76
1,783.76
1,783.76
1,783.76
December 2009
1,844.84
1,844.84
1,844.84
1,844.84
January 2010
1,910.42
1,910.42
1,910.42
1,910.42
February 2010
1,970.83
1,970.83
1,970.83
1,970.83
March 2010
2,014.39
2,014.39
2,014.39
2,014.39
April 2010
2,042.12
2,042.12
2,042.12
2,042.12
May 2010
2,057.14
2,057.14
2,057.14
2,057.14
June 2010
2,059.88
2,059.88
2,059.88
2,059.88
July 2010
2,053.99
2,053.99
2,053.99
2,053.99
August 2010
2,045.95
2,045.95
2,045.95
2,045.95
September 2010
2,044.31
2,044.31
2,044.31
2,044.31
October 2010
2,040.23
2,040.23
2,040.23
2,040.23
November 2010
2,081.47
2,081.47
2,081.47
2,081.47
December 2010
2,161.09
2,161.09
2,161.09
2,161.09
January 2011
2,238.30
2,238.30
2,238.30
2,238.30
February 2011
2,319.84
2,319.84
2,319.84
2,319.84
March 2011
2,410.10
2,410.10
2,410.10
2,410.10
April 2011
2,472.32
2,472.32
2,472.32
2,472.32
May 2011
2,567.25
2,567.25
2,567.25
2,567.25
June 2011
2,645.10
2,645.10
2,645.10
2,645.10
July 2011
2,647.93
2,647.93
2,647.93
2,647.93
August 2011
2,646.83
2,646.83
2,646.83
2,646.83
September 2011
2,643.81
2,643.81
2,643.81
2,643.81
October 2011
2,619.75
2,619.75
2,619.75
2,619.75
November 2011
2,605.00
2,605.00
2,605.00
2,605.00
December 2011
2,605.12
2,605.12
2,605.12
2,605.12
January 2012
2,597.45
2,597.45
2,597.45
2,597.45
February 2012
2,603.21
2,603.21
2,603.21
2,603.21
March 2012
2,594.40
2,594.40
2,594.40
2,594.40
2,603.40
2,603.40
2,603.40
2,603.40
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April 2012
May 2012
2,606.44
2,606.44
2,606.44
2,606.44
June 2012
2,606.40
2,606.40
2,606.40
2,606.40
July 2012
2,589.00
2,589.00
2,589.00
2,589.00
August 2012
2,573.34
2,573.34
2,573.34
2,573.34
September 2012
2,563.68
2,563.68
2,563.68
2,563.68
October 2012
2,579.27
2,579.27
2,579.27
2,579.27
November 2012
2,603.55
2,603.69
2,607.83
2,603.55
December 2012
2,654.34
2,654.95
2,666.17
2,643.55
January 2013
2,744.74
2,740.72
2,712.15
2,728.55
February 2013
2,840.30
2,827.17
2,737.20
2,813.55
March 2013
2,940.76
2,914.26
2,742.24
2,898.55
April 2013
3,042.39
3,001.21
2,742.55
2,983.55
May 2013
3,144.19
3,087.89
2,742.99
3,068.55
June 2013
3,246.26
3,174.84
2,743.80
3,153.55
July 2013
3,343.64
3,217.05
2,745.07
3,238.55
August 2013
3,440.19
3,241.80
2,746.65
3,323.55
September 2013
3,524.69
3,248.61
2,748.20
3,408.55
October 2013
3,602.67
3,250.79
2,749.30
3,493.55
November 2013
3,659.84
3,251.98
2,749.88
3,578.55
December 2013
3,708.53
3,252.57
2,750.12
3,663.55
January 2014
3,730.31
3,252.99
2,750.32
3,678.55
February 2014
3,741.68
3,253.45
2,750.53
3,693.55
March 2014
3,744.22
3,254.06
2,750.79
3,708.55
April 2014
3,744.78
3,254.63
2,751.01
3,723.55
May 2014
3,745.26
3,255.16
2,746.59
3,738.55
June 2014
3,745.60
3,255.56
2,737.58
3,753.55
July 2014
3,745.83
3,255.88
2,727.54
3,753.55
August 2014
3,745.96
3,256.12
2,717.48
3,753.55
September 2014
3,746.08
3,256.31
2,707.41
3,753.55
October 2014
3,746.14
3,256.46
2,697.32
3,753.55
November 2014
3,746.19
3,256.53
2,687.00
3,753.55
December 2014
3,746.23
3,256.61
2,676.83
3,753.55
January 2015
3,747.22
3,257.72
2,667.69
3,753.55
February 2015
3,747.65
3,258.29
2,658.49
3,753.55
March 2015
3,747.57
3,258.36
2,649.20
3,753.55
April 2015
3,747.36
3,258.27
2,632.73
3,753.55
May 2015
3,741.04
3,252.83
2,616.26
3,753.55
June 2015
3,728.57
3,242.04
2,599.79
3,753.55
July 2015
3,714.70
3,230.06
2,583.32
3,736.88
August 2015
3,700.78
3,218.07
2,566.85
3,720.22
September 2015
3,686.84
3,206.08
2,550.38
3,703.55
October 2015
3,672.86
3,194.13
2,533.90
3,686.88
November 2015
3,658.87
3,182.21
2,517.43
3,670.22
December 2015
3,644.87
3,170.36
2,500.96
3,653.55
January 2016
3,624.12
3,151.81
2,477.73
3,628.72
February 2016
3,572.61
3,102.54
2,423.72
3,603.88
March 2016
3,534.16
3,066.37
2,382.75
3,579.05
April 2016
3,481.38
3,017.55
2,337.62
3,554.22
May 2016
3,417.08
2,957.21
2,280.97
3,529.38
June 2016
3,378.46
2,922.56
2,250.01
3,504.55
July 2016
3,343.17
2,891.22
2,222.37
3,479.55
August 2016
3,304.80
2,856.82
2,191.66
3,454.55
September 2016
3,272.92
2,828.91
2,167.44
3,429.55
October 2016
3,241.35
2,801.30
2,143.52
3,404.55
November 2016
3,192.15
2,756.07
2,102.02
3,379.55
December 2016
3,155.41
2,723.28
2,072.93
3,354.55
January 2017
3,121.44
2,693.28
2,046.61
ND
February 2017
3,078.29
2,654.09
2,011.12
ND
March 2017
3,042.45
2,622.21
1,982.93
ND
April 2017
3,004.80
2,588.53
1,952.94
ND
May 2017
2,949.51
2,537.20
1,905.30
ND
June 2017
2,914.16
2,505.82
1,877.61
ND
July 2017
2,875.45
2,471.70
1,852.87
ND
August 2017
2,824.48
2,425.32
1,815.85
ND
September 2017
2,788.93
2,394.36
1,794.27
ND
October 2017
2,755.97
2,366.00
1,775.28
ND
November 2017
2,708.02
2,322.64
1,741.32
ND
December 2017
2,663.87
2,283.09
1,711.14
ND
2,618.48
2,247.34
1,679.07
ND
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January
2018
February 2018
2,558.69
2,197.19
1,632.61
ND
March 2018
2,516.00
2,162.88
1,602.00
ND
April 2018
2,470.51
2,125.76
1,584.63
ND
May 2018
2,401.76
2,063.50
1,592.92
ND
June 2018
2,360.83
2,029.06
1,601.20
ND
July 2018
2,311.91
1,984.68
1,609.49
ND
August 2018
2,249.93
1,927.23
1,617.78
ND
September 2018
2,213.55
1,895.38
1,626.08
ND
October 2018
2,167.64
1,854.01
1,634.40
ND
November 2018
2,093.06
1,783.96
1,642.73
ND
December 2018
2,051.41
1,746.85
1,651.04
ND
January 2019
2,015.86
1,720.39
1,659.88
ND
February 2019
1,947.51
1,661.14
1,668.73
ND
March 2019
1,903.98
1,652.97
1,677.58
ND
April 2019
1,859.12
1,662.19
1,686.44
ND
May 2019
1,781.05
1,671.43
1,695.32
ND
June 2019
1,736.03
1,680.67
1,704.20
ND
July 2019
1,698.79
1,689.92
1,713.11
ND
August 2019
1,688.58
1,699.20
1,722.03
ND
September 2019
1,697.99
1,708.42
1,730.92
ND
October 2019
1,707.89
1,717.67
1,739.83
ND
November 2019
1,717.33
1,726.94
1,748.76
ND
December 2019
1,726.78
1,736.20
1,757.69
ND
January 2020
1,737.63
1,745.99
1,767.15
ND
February 2020
1,747.62
1,755.80
1,776.63
ND
March 2020
1,757.60
1,765.60
1,786.09
ND
April 2020
1,768.42
1,775.42
1,795.22
ND
May 2020
1,778.44
1,785.27
1,804.38
ND
June 2020
1,788.44
1,795.09
1,813.52
ND
July 2020
1,799.44
1,804.94
1,822.69
ND
August 2020
1,809.47
1,814.79
1,831.88
ND
September 2020
1,819.46
1,824.61
1,841.04
ND
October 2020
1,829.47
1,834.45
1,850.23
ND
November 2020
1,839.49
1,844.31
1,859.44
ND
December 2020
1,849.53
1,854.18
1,868.68
ND
January 2021
1,859.92
1,864.41
1,878.27
ND
February 2021
1,870.33
1,874.66
1,887.90
ND
March 2021
1,880.72
1,884.89
1,897.50
ND
April 2021
1,890.47
1,894.61
1,907.13
ND
May 2021
1,900.25
1,904.36
1,916.79
ND
June 2021
1,910.00
1,914.08
1,926.43
ND
July 2021
1,919.76
1,923.82
1,936.09
ND
August 2021
1,929.56
1,933.59
1,945.77
ND
September 2021
1,939.35
1,943.36
1,955.46
ND
October 2021
1,949.17
1,953.15
1,965.18
ND
November 2021
1,959.01
1,962.97
1,974.92
ND
December 2021
1,968.81
1,972.75
1,984.62
ND
January 2022
1,979.02
1,982.93
1,994.72
ND
February 2022
1,989.25
1,993.13
2,004.85
ND
March 2022
1,999.50
2,003.36
2,015.00
ND
April 2022
2,009.78
2,013.62
2,025.18
ND
May 2022
2,020.10
2,023.90
2,035.39
ND
June 2022
2,030.43
2,034.21
2,045.63
ND
July 2022
2,040.80
2,044.54
2,055.89
ND
August 2022
2,051.19
2,054.91
2,066.19
ND
September 2022
2,061.60
2,065.29
2,076.51
ND
October 2022
2,072.04
2,075.70
2,086.85
ND
November 2022
2,082.51
2,086.15
2,097.22
ND
December 2022
2,093.00
2,096.61
2,107.62
ND
January 2023
2,103.97
2,107.55
2,118.49
ND
February 2023
2,114.97
2,118.52
2,129.40
ND
March 2023
2,125.98
2,129.51
2,140.31
ND
April 2023
2,137.02
2,140.52
2,151.26
ND
May 2023
2,148.10
2,151.57
2,162.23
ND
June 2023
2,159.20
2,162.64
2,173.24
ND
July 2023
2,170.33
2,173.75
2,184.28
ND
August 2023
2,181.49
2,184.88
2,195.34
ND
September 2023
2,192.68
2,196.03
2,206.43
ND
2,203.89
2,207.22
2,217.55
ND
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October
2023
November 2023
2,215.13
2,218.43
2,228.70
ND
December 2023
2,226.40
2,229.68
2,239.88
ND
January 2024
2,238.19
2,241.44
2,251.57
ND
February 2024
2,250.02
2,253.24
2,263.30
ND
March 2024
2,261.87
2,265.06
2,275.07
ND
April 2024
2,273.75
2,276.92
2,286.86
ND
May 2024
2,285.67
2,288.81
2,298.68
ND
June 2024
2,297.62
2,300.73
2,310.54
ND
July 2024
2,309.60
2,312.68
2,322.43
ND
August 2024
2,321.61
2,324.67
2,334.35
ND
September 2024
2,333.66
2,336.69
2,346.30
ND
October 2024
2,345.73
2,348.74
2,358.29
ND
November 2024
2,357.84
2,360.82
2,370.31
ND
December 2024
2,369.98
2,372.93
2,382.35
ND
Bottom-left panel
SEP Information on Purchases
Eight of you indicated that your balance sheet projections did not differ materially from staff's
Seven of you judged that appropriate policy implied a larger volume of purchases
Four of you judged that purchases should be smaller
Bottom-right panel
Possible Explanations for the Discrepancy
Difference likely not due to the dealers having a weaker outlook
Dealers may believe that the Committee will follow a more aggressive stopping rule
Dealers may be less concerned about efficacy and costs
Dealers are highly uncertain about the ultimate level of purchases
Alternative Monetary Policy Scenarios
Top panel
Federal Funds Rate
Percent
Period
Alternative A
Alternative B
Alternative C
2012:Q1
0.10
0.10
0.10
2012:Q2
0.15
0.15
0.15
2012:Q3
0.14
0.14
0.14
2012:Q4
0.13
0.15
0.15
2013:Q1
0.13
0.13
0.13
2013:Q2
0.13
0.13
0.13
2013:Q3
0.13
0.13
0.13
2013:Q4
0.13
0.13
0.13
2014:Q1
0.13
0.13
0.13
2014:Q2
0.13
0.13
0.13
2014:Q3
0.13
0.13
0.13
2014:Q4
0.13
0.13
0.19
2015:Q1
0.13
0.13
0.29
2015:Q2
0.13
0.13
0.47
2015:Q3
0.13
0.13
0.72
2015:Q4
0.13
0.38
1.03
2016:Q1
0.21
0.79
1.40
2016:Q2
0.54
1.24
1.71
2016:Q3
1.15
1.65
1.98
2016:Q4
1.97
2.02
2.18
2017:Q1
2.70
2.34
2.35
2017:Q2
3.23
2.64
2.50
2017:Q3
3.59
2.93
2.65
2017:Q4
3.81
3.22
2.80
2018:Q1
3.92
3.43
2.93
2018:Q2
3.94
3.56
3.03
2018:Q3
3.93
3.64
3.12
2018:Q4
3.90
3.68
3.21
2019:Q1
3.87
3.71
3.31
2019:Q2
3.86
3.74
3.42
2019:Q3
3.88
3.80
3.54
2019:Q4
3.91
3.86
3.68
2020:Q1
3.96
3.93
3.82
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2020:Q2
4.00
4.00
3.95
2020:Q3
4.05
4.07
4.07
2020:Q4
4.09
4.13
4.17
Middle panel
Unemployment Rate
Percent
Period
Alternative A
Alternative B
Alternative C
2012:Q1
8.24
8.24
8.24
2012:Q2
8.17
8.17
8.17
2012:Q3
8.05
8.05
8.05
2012:Q4
7.96
7.96
7.96
2013:Q1
7.93
7.93
7.96
2013:Q2
7.89
7.89
7.99
2013:Q3
7.84
7.86
8.02
2013:Q4
7.77
7.81
8.05
2014:Q1
7.66
7.73
8.03
2014:Q2
7.55
7.66
8.02
2014:Q3
7.40
7.54
7.96
2014:Q4
7.22
7.39
7.86
2015:Q1
6.99
7.20
7.70
2015:Q2
6.74
6.97
7.52
2015:Q3
6.52
6.77
7.34
2015:Q4
6.27
6.54
7.14
2016:Q1
6.03
6.31
6.93
2016:Q2
5.82
6.10
6.73
2016:Q3
5.64
5.93
6.55
2016:Q4
5.51
5.79
6.40
2017:Q1
5.41
5.68
6.26
2017:Q2
5.35
5.59
6.13
2017:Q3
5.30
5.51
6.01
2017:Q4
5.26
5.43
5.88
2018:Q1
5.29
5.43
5.83
2018:Q2
5.32
5.43
5.78
2018:Q3
5.35
5.44
5.74
2018:Q4
5.38
5.45
5.70
2019:Q1
5.40
5.46
5.66
2019:Q2
5.42
5.46
5.62
2019:Q3
5.42
5.45
5.57
2019:Q4
5.41
5.43
5.52
2020:Q1
5.39
5.40
5.47
2020:Q2
5.37
5.37
5.42
2020:Q3
5.35
5.35
5.37
2020:Q4
5.33
5.32
5.33
Bottom panel
PCE Inflation
Four-quarter average
Percent
Period
Alternative A
Alternative B
Alternative C
2012:Q1
2.36
2.36
2.36
2012:Q2
1.64
1.64
1.64
2012:Q3
1.45
1.45
1.45
2012:Q4
1.60
1.57
1.49
2013:Q1
1.29
1.23
1.10
2013:Q2
1.50
1.40
1.20
2013:Q3
1.48
1.35
1.08
2013:Q4
1.42
1.30
1.02
2014:Q1
1.50
1.38
1.08
2014:Q2
1.51
1.39
1.06
2014:Q3
1.51
1.39
1.05
2014:Q4
1.52
1.41
1.06
2015:Q1
1.55
1.43
1.08
2015:Q2
1.59
1.47
1.11
2015:Q3
1.62
1.50
1.14
2015:Q4
1.66
1.54
1.19
2016:Q1
1.69
1.57
1.22
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2016:Q2
1.74
1.62
1.27
2016:Q3
1.81
1.68
1.34
2016:Q4
1.88
1.75
1.41
2017:Q1
1.93
1.81
1.47
2017:Q2
1.98
1.85
1.53
2017:Q3
2.01
1.89
1.58
2017:Q4
2.04
1.92
1.63
2018:Q1
2.05
1.94
1.67
2018:Q2
2.05
1.95
1.71
2018:Q3
2.04
1.96
1.75
2018:Q4
2.03
1.96
1.78
2019:Q1
2.02
1.97
1.81
2019:Q2
2.01
1.97
1.85
2019:Q3
2.00
1.97
1.88
2019:Q4
1.98
1.97
1.91
2020:Q1
1.98
1.97
1.94
2020:Q2
1.97
1.97
1.97
2020:Q3
1.97
1.98
1.99
2020:Q4
1.96
1.98
2.02
October FOMC Statement
1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a
moderate pace in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has
advanced a bit more quickly, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of
improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation
expectations have remained stable.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains
concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor
market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The
Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.
3. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the
Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will
continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is maintaining its
existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgagebacked securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month
through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader
financial conditions more accommodative.
4. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor
market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset
purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size,
pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such
purchases.
5. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided
today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal
funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.
[Note: In the December FOMC Statement Alternatives, emphasis (strike-through) indicates strike-through text in the original document, and strong
emphasis (bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]
December FOMC Statement--Alternative A
1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September October suggests that economic activity has continued to
expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Growth in employment has been slow, and the
unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advanced a bit more quickly, but growth in business fixed investment
has slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up
somewhat, has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflecting
higher fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains
concerned that, without sufficient further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement
in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The
Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
3. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the
Committee will continue purchasing agreed today to increase its purchases of additional agency mortgage-backed securities at to a pace of $40
$50 billion per month beginning in January. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year purchase longer-term Treasury
securities at a pace of $50 billion per month after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is
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completed at the end of this year. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency
debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury
securities at auction. These actions, which together will increase the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 $100 billion
each per month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to
make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
4. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor
market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake
additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved it judges that data on economic
activity and labor market conditions are consistent with an outlook for sustained progress toward maximum employment in a context of
price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the
likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
5. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after [ it sees a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market,
the asset purchase program ends, and ] the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target
range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be
warranted at least through mid-2015 this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the
unemployment rate remains above 6 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than 1/2 percentage
point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In
determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other
information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and
readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced
approach consistent with [ maintaining satisfactory progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability | its longer-run
goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent ].
December FOMC Statement--Alternative B
1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September October suggests that economic activity and employment
has have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Growth in employment has been
slow, and Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending has continued
to advanced a bit more quickly, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has
slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat,
has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflecting higher
fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains
concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor
market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The
Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
3. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the
Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will
continue through the end of the year purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of
Treasury securities, and it is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its
existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgagebacked securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions, which
together will increase the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put
downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
4. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor
market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake
additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In
determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy
and costs of such purchases.
5. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after [ it sees a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market,
the asset purchase program ends, and ] the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target
range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be
warranted at least through mid-2015 this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the
unemployment rate remains above 6 1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than 1/2
percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.
The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In determining how long to maintain a highly
accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor
market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the
Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with [ maintaining satisfactory
progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability | its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2
percent ].
OR
5′. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after [ it sees a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market,
the asset purchase program ends, and ] the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target
range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be
warranted at least through mid-2015.
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December FOMC Statement--Alternative C
1. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September October suggests that economic activity and employment
has have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Growth in employment has been
slow, and The unemployment rate, remains though still elevated, has declined. Household spending has advanced a bit more quickly, but growth
in business fixed investment has slowed. Private domestic demand has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown some further
signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices has been running
close to the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
2. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains
concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor
market conditions expects economic growth to be moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually, supported in part by the
highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will continue to decline at a
pace that the Committee judges consistent with its mandate. Furthermore However, strains in global financial markets continue to pose
significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would will run at or
below near its 2 percent objective.
3. In light of the improving economic outlook, the Committee judges that it has provided sufficient policy accommodation to support a
stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate. Accordingly, the
Committee will, at the end of the year, discontinue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.
and complete The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury
securities. and it The Committee is maintaining continuing its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt
and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury
securities at auction. These actions, which together will increase keep the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion
each month through the end of the year, at a level of about $2.8 trillion, will maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy and
should put sustain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make keep broader financial
conditions more accommodative.
4. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor
market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset
purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved and is prepared to take further action as needed
to promote sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of
its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
5. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy will remain appropriate for [ a considerable | some ] time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee
also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for
the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015 this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be
appropriate until it has observed substantial improvement in labor market conditions, provided that the Committee projects that inflation
over the medium term will be close to its [ 2 percent ] objective and longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.
OR
5′. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of
monetary policy will remain appropriate for [ a considerable | some ] time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee
also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for
the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015 [ late 2014 | mid-2014 | late 2013 ].
October 2012 Directive
The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To
further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent.
The Committee directs the Desk to continue the maturity extension program it announced in June to purchase Treasury securities with remaining
maturities of 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of about $267 billion by the end of December 2012, and to sell or redeem Treasury securities with
remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less with a total face value of about $267 billion. For the duration of this program, the Committee directs
the Desk to suspend its policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues. The Committee directs the Desk to maintain its existing policy
of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in the System Open Market Account in agency mortgagebacked securities. The Desk is also directed to continue purchasing agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of about $40 billion per month. The
Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency
MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding
the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
[Note: In the December 2012 Directive Alternatives, emphasis (strike-through) indicates strike-through text in the original document, and strong emphasis
(bold) indicates bold red underlined text in the original document.]
December 2012 Directive--Alternative A
The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To
further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent.
The Committee directs the Desk to continue complete the maturity extension program it announced in June to purchase Treasury securities with
remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of about $267 billion by the end of December 2012, and to sell or redeem Treasury
securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less with a total face value of about $267 billion. For the duration Following the
completion of this program, the Committee directs the Desk to suspend resume its policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues.
From the beginning of January, the Desk is directed to purchase longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of about $50 billion per month. The
Committee directs the Desk to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in
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the System Open Market Account in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Desk is also directed to continue purchasing agency mortgage-backed
securities at a pace of about $40 billion per month until the end of December 2012, and to purchase agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace
of about $50 billion per month beginning in January. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as
necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will
keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the
Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
December 2012 Directive--Alternative B
The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To
further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent.
The Committee directs the Desk to continue complete the maturity extension program it announced in June to purchase Treasury securities with
remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of about $267 billion by the end of December 2012, and to sell or redeem Treasury
securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less with a total face value of about $267 billion. For the duration Following the
completion of this program, the Committee directs the Desk to suspend resume its policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues.
From the beginning of January, the Desk is directed to purchase longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of about $45 billion per month. The
Committee directs the Desk to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in
the System Open Market Account in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Desk is also directed to continue purchasing agency mortgage-backed
securities at a pace of about $40 billion per month. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to
facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the
Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's
objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
December 2012 Directive--Alternative C
The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To
further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent.
The Committee directs the Desk to continue complete the maturity extension program it announced in June to purchase Treasury securities with
remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years with a total face value of about $267 billion by the end of December 2012, and to sell or redeem Treasury
securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less with a total face value of about $267 billion. For the duration Following the
completion of this program, the Committee directs the Desk to suspend resume its policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues.
The Committee directs the Desk to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed
securities in the System Open Market Account in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Desk is also directed to continue purchasing agency mortgagebacked securities at a pace of about $40 billion per month until the end of December 2012. The Committee directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and
coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions. The System Open Market Account
Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the
attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
Appendix 8: Materials used by Ms. Logan
Material for
FOMC Presentation: Draft Desk Operating Statement
Lorie Logan
December 12, 2012
Class I FOMC - Restricted Controlled (FR)
DRAFT
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities
On December 12, 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York to purchase longer-term Treasury securities after the maturity extension program is completed at the end of December 2012, initially at a pace
of about $45 billion per month. The FOMC also directed the Desk to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a pace
of about $40 billion per month. These actions should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make
broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The FOMC also directed the Desk to maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and
agency MBS in agency MBS, and, in January, to resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities into new issues at auction.
Beginning in January, the purchases of longer-term Treasury securities will be distributed across 7 sectors based on the following approximate weights:
Nominal Coupon Securities by Maturity Range*
TIPS**
4 - 4 3/4 Years
4 3/4 - 5 3/4 Years
5 3/4 - 7 Years
7 - 10 Years
10 - 20 Years
20 - 30 Years
4 - 30 Years
11%
12%
16%
29%
2%
27%
3%
* The on-the-run 7-year note will be considered part of the 5 3/4- to 7-year sector, and the on-the-run 10-year note will be considered part of the 7- to 10-year sector. Return to table
** TIPS weights are based on unadjusted par amounts. Return to table
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Under this distribution, the Desk anticipates that the Treasury securities purchased will have an average duration of approximately 9 years, roughly the
same as the net of the duration of the securities purchased and sold under the maturity extension program. The distribution of Treasury securities
purchased could change if market conditions warrant.
The Desk will continue to publish a tentative schedule of Treasury purchase operations for the following calendar month on or around the last business
day of each month. The schedule will include the anticipated amount of purchases to be conducted, operation dates, settlement dates, security types
(nominal coupons or TIPS) to be purchased, the maturity date range of eligible issues, and an expected range for the size of each operation. The next
schedule of operations will be released on Monday, December 31. The amount of additional agency MBS to be purchased each month will also be
announced on or around the last business day of the prior month.
Consistent with current practices, the purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS will be conducted with the Federal Reserve's primary dealers
through a competitive bidding process and results will be published on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website. The Desk will continue to publish
transaction prices for individual operations at the end of each monthly period. All other purchase details remain the same at this time.
Frequently Asked Questions associated with these purchases, which include a technical adjustment to the process of reinvesting maturing Treasury
securities into new issues at auction, will be released later today.
Last Update: January 5, 2018
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