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Accessible Material August 2008 Bluebook and Greenbook Tables and Charts Table of Contents Document Section Accessible Material Bluebook Recent Developments FOMC20080805bluebook20080731_1.htm Update on Monetary Policy Strategies FOMC20080805bluebook20080731_2.htm Short-Run Policy Alternatives FOMC20080805bluebook20080731_3.htm Money and Debt Forecasts FOMC20080805bluebook20080731_4.htm Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate FOMC20080805bluebook20080731_5.htm Greenbook Part 1 Domestic Developments FOMC20080805gbpt120080730_1.htm International Developments FOMC20080805gbpt120080730_2.htm Greenbook Part 2 Domestic Nonfinancial Developments FOMC20080805gbpt220080730_1.htm Domestic Financial Developments FOMC20080805gbpt220080730_2.htm International Developments FOMC20080805gbpt220080730_3.htm Greenbook Supplement Supplemental Notes Last update: March 7, 2014 FOMC20080805gbsup20080801_1.htm Accessible Material August 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts† Recent Developments Chart 1 Financial Institutions Figure: GSE stock prices Daily Dollars Date Fannie Mae Freddie Mac 2 January 2008 37.46 32.74 3 January 2008 35.92 32.20 4 January 2008 34.05 29.34 7 January 2008 34.23 29.16 8 January 2008 31.63 26.76 9 January 2008 32.71 27.14 10 January 2008 34.85 27.88 11 January 2008 36.74 29.46 14 January 2008 37.02 31.01 15 January 2008 36.30 30.73 16 January 2008 37.30 31.35 17 January 2008 35.00 29.08 18 January 2008 32.15 27.66 22 January 2008 32.09 28.68 23 January 2008 34.78 32.52 24 January 2008 34.19 32.00 25 January 2008 31.80 29.58 28 January 2008 33.04 29.90 29 January 2008 32.91 29.15 30 January 2008 31.13 27.90 31 January 2008 33.78 30.39 1 February 2008 35.40 32.45 4 February 2008 35.51 32.42 5 February 2008 33.23 30.28 6 February 2008 31.32 29.13 7 February 2008 32.37 31.05 8 February 2008 31.12 29.70 11 February 2008 29.75 28.98 12 February 2008 30.45 29.15 13 February 2008 31.47 29.15 14 February 2008 30.34 28.29 15 February 2008 29.39 28.40 19 February 2008 28.98 27.63 20 February 2008 29.83 28.75 21 February 2008 28.99 27.75 22 February 2008 28.72 26.61 25 February 2008 28.27 26.18 26 February 2008 26.97 25.21 27 February 2008 27.27 25.09 28 February 2008 27.90 24.49 29 February 2008 27.65 25.18 3 March 2008 26.44 23.72 4 March 2008 25.95 22.57 5 March 2008 24.27 21.64 6 March 2008 21.70 20.14 7 March 2008 22.77 19.65 10 March 2008 19.81 17.39 11 March 2008 22.00 20.16 12 March 2008 21.04 20.04 13 March 2008 22.97 21.30 14 March 2008 22.36 21.18 17 March 2008 22.21 20.62 18 March 2008 28.22 26.02 19 March 2008 30.71 29.90 20 March 2008 34.30 32.58 24 March 2008 31.16 30.61 25 March 2008 31.17 29.71 26 March 2008 29.25 27.70 27 March 2008 27.97 27.08 28 March 2008 26.02 25.45 31 March 2008 26.32 25.32 1 April 2008 31.50 29.22 2 April 2008 31.53 27.83 3 April 2008 30.87 28.35 4 April 2008 30.34 27.60 7 April 2008 29.85 26.60 8 April 2008 29.00 25.46 9 April 2008 28.12 24.83 10 April 2008 26.53 23.91 11 April 2008 26.04 23.49 14 April 2008 25.34 23.10 15 April 2008 25.95 23.95 16 April 2008 27.78 25.80 17 April 2008 28.25 26.81 18 April 2008 28.55 27.06 21 April 2008 27.92 26.14 22 April 2008 27.13 25.59 23 April 2008 26.30 24.51 24 April 2008 28.03 26.02 25 April 2008 30.93 27.94 28 April 2008 30.02 27.14 29 April 2008 28.35 25.56 30 April 2008 28.30 24.91 1 May 2008 29.75 26.77 2 May 2008 29.50 27.09 5 May 2008 28.29 25.52 6 May 2008 30.81 27.33 7 May 2008 29.05 26.01 8 May 2008 27.63 25.43 9 May 2008 27.81 25.15 12 May 2008 28.25 25.90 13 May 2008 28.12 24.96 14 May 2008 29.89 27.25 15 May 2008 30.23 27.27 16 May 2008 29.89 26.97 19 May 2008 28.95 27.01 20 May 2008 27.74 26.31 21 May 2008 27.41 26.16 22 May 2008 27.90 26.29 23 May 2008 27.59 25.73 27 May 2008 26.53 24.73 28 May 2008 26.81 25.16 29 May 2008 27.15 25.73 30 May 2008 27.02 25.42 2 June 2008 26.97 24.81 3 June 2008 26.72 24.58 4 June 2008 26.31 23.87 5 June 2008 27.59 25.29 6 June 2008 25.71 23.96 9 June 2008 23.68 22.55 10 June 2008 23.81 22.49 11 June 2008 23.33 21.62 12 June 2008 24.89 22.49 13 June 2008 24.77 23.01 16 June 2008 25.60 23.96 17 June 2008 24.67 23.44 18 June 2008 24.93 23.44 19 June 2008 25.00 23.65 20 June 2008 23.81 21.82 23 June 2008 22.34 19.99 24 June 2008 22.64 20.07 25 June 2008 22.66 20.01 26 June 2008 21.04 18.53 27 June 2008 20.80 17.85 30 June 2008 19.51 16.40 1 July 2008 19.59 16.21 2 July 2008 19.43 15.92 3 July 2008 18.78 14.50 7 July 2008 15.74 11.91 8 July 2008 17.62 13.46 9 July 2008 15.31 10.26 10 July 2008 13.20 8.00 11 July 2008 10.25 7.75 14 July 2008 9.73 7.11 15 July 2008 7.07 5.26 16 July 2008 9.25 6.83 17 July 2008 10.93 8.33 18 July 2008 13.40 9.18 21 July 2008 14.13 8.75 22 July 2008 13.41 9.70 23 July 2008 15.00 10.80 24 July 2008 12.02 8.81 25 July 2008 11.55 8.27 28 July 2008 10.31 7.72 29 July 2008 11.60 8.42 30 July 2008 12.21 8.73 As shown in the figure, the series end on July 31, 2008. Fannie Mae ends at about $12, and Freddie Mac ends at about $8. A vertical line marks the FOMC meeting on June 24-25, 2008. Figure: CDS spreads for GSEs Daily Basis points Date Fannie Mae Freddie Mac 1 January 2008 38.64 38.83 2 January 2008 39.77 39.85 3 January 2008 40.76 40.39 4 January 2008 42.57 42.18 7 January 2008 42.23 42.16 8 January 2008 41.80 42.16 9 January 2008 44.00 44.54 10 January 2008 48.40 47.72 11 January 2008 48.52 47.65 14 January 2008 48.49 48.57 15 January 2008 48.79 49.20 16 January 2008 48.79 48.79 17 January 2008 55.25 57.36 18 January 2008 55.79 56.10 21 January 2008 55.89 56.48 22 January 2008 60.89 61.30 23 January 2008 60.04 59.65 24 January 2008 52.52 52.28 25 January 2008 53.71 53.36 28 January 2008 55.17 53.64 29 January 2008 53.76 53.38 30 January 2008 53.72 52.94 31 January 2008 56.99 56.95 1 February 2008 56.40 56.48 4 February 2008 56.27 56.19 5 February 2008 59.66 59.78 6 February 2008 62.20 62.03 7 February 2008 64.75 64.65 8 February 2008 68.46 68.68 11 February 2008 73.19 73.18 12 February 2008 72.83 72.57 13 February 2008 72.23 71.78 14 February 2008 73.46 73.94 15 February 2008 77.89 77.14 18 February 2008 78.35 77.76 19 February 2008 77.52 77.52 20 February 2008 81.07 81.46 21 February 2008 81.33 81.25 22 February 2008 85.33 85.55 25 February 2008 84.50 84.50 26 February 2008 77.61 78.23 27 February 2008 76.76 76.77 28 February 2008 78.58 78.61 29 February 2008 81.43 81.80 3 March 2008 80.74 81.51 4 March 2008 81.94 83.34 5 March 2008 82.14 84.96 6 March 2008 94.18 96.52 7 March 2008 92.30 95.52 10 March 2008 92.37 95.89 11 March 2008 77.51 76.84 12 March 2008 78.35 77.69 13 March 2008 81.82 80.75 14 March 2008 77.75 78.08 17 March 2008 73.44 73.62 18 March 2008 56.11 56.18 19 March 2008 55.52 55.56 20 March 2008 54.67 54.97 21 March 2008 54.67 54.97 24 March 2008 49.80 49.45 25 March 2008 49.62 49.59 26 March 2008 51.02 50.63 27 March 2008 50.99 51.22 28 March 2008 54.55 54.06 31 March 2008 52.63 52.12 1 April 2008 45.18 45.59 2 April 2008 39.83 39.75 3 April 2008 37.35 37.73 4 April 2008 36.79 37.12 7 April 2008 37.33 37.36 8 April 2008 41.13 41.06 9 April 2008 44.73 44.43 10 April 2008 45.06 45.23 11 April 2008 46.68 45.86 14 April 2008 47.06 46.55 15 April 2008 45.74 45.68 16 April 2008 39.44 39.31 17 April 2008 38.00 38.30 18 April 2008 33.32 33.69 21 April 2008 33.62 34.15 22 April 2008 34.76 34.89 23 April 2008 35.86 36.69 24 April 2008 37.87 38.51 25 April 2008 36.89 37.03 28 April 2008 35.17 35.31 29 April 2008 35.02 35.35 30 April 2008 34.38 34.99 1 May 2008 34.59 34.78 2 May 2008 35.26 35.38 5 May 2008 42.67 42.41 6 May 2008 43.26 43.93 7 May 2008 43.23 43.58 8 May 2008 44.54 45.11 9 May 2008 44.88 45.34 12 May 2008 45.27 45.29 13 May 2008 44.86 44.90 14 May 2008 40.76 40.78 15 May 2008 38.20 38.22 16 May 2008 39.10 38.88 19 May 2008 39.53 39.70 20 May 2008 41.72 41.82 21 May 2008 42.60 42.43 22 May 2008 44.73 44.78 23 May 2008 45.07 45.19 26 May 2008 45.16 45.25 27 May 2008 49.08 47.74 28 May 2008 48.02 47.65 29 May 2008 47.62 47.43 30 May 2008 47.69 47.69 2 June 2008 49.83 49.70 3 June 2008 49.72 49.76 4 June 2008 50.52 50.37 5 June 2008 47.54 47.77 6 June 2008 48.99 49.01 9 June 2008 49.77 49.85 10 June 2008 51.09 50.86 11 June 2008 50.37 50.41 12 June 2008 50.81 50.42 13 June 2008 50.60 50.30 16 June 2008 49.71 48.99 17 June 2008 48.02 47.54 18 June 2008 49.99 48.82 19 June 2008 51.46 51.72 20 June 2008 53.55 53.63 23 June 2008 53.72 53.54 24 June 2008 54.73 54.38 25 June 2008 57.14 56.72 26 June 2008 63.53 63.39 27 June 2008 64.39 64.62 30 June 2008 64.86 64.85 1 July 2008 69.48 69.35 2 July 2008 69.61 69.74 3 July 2008 70.65 69.92 4 July 2008 70.57 69.92 7 July 2008 78.02 78.28 8 July 2008 73.87 75.06 9 July 2008 77.16 79.56 10 July 2008 78.43 78.92 11 July 2008 56.44 56.66 14 July 2008 42.30 42.59 15 July 2008 48.10 48.19 16 July 2008 45.74 45.58 17 July 2008 42.80 42.66 18 July 2008 41.21 41.13 21 July 2008 40.63 41.26 22 July 2008 40.99 41.23 23 July 2008 40.32 40.26 24 July 2008 41.02 40.93 25 July 2008 43.05 43.36 28 July 2008 44.13 43.62 29 July 2008 42.20 42.55 30 July 2008 42.07 42.02 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the FOMC meeting on June 24-25, 2008. Source. Markit. Figure: Agency option-adjusted spreads Daily Basis points Date 3 January 2006 Fannie Mae Ginnie Mae 69.83 28.26 4 January 2006 69.50 28.92 5 January 2006 67.89 23.83 6 January 2006 68.00 23.07 9 January 2006 64.81 19.57 10 January 2006 66.83 26.96 11 January 2006 67.91 29.68 12 January 2006 65.83 26.10 13 January 2006 64.66 23.15 17 January 2006 63.15 17.86 18 January 2006 63.45 18.47 19 January 2006 66.76 21.87 20 January 2006 64.42 21.05 23 January 2006 61.12 16.85 24 January 2006 62.94 19.97 25 January 2006 62.31 22.80 26 January 2006 63.33 26.28 27 January 2006 65.03 29.54 30 January 2006 63.23 28.11 31 January 2006 63.70 28.09 1 February 2006 68.88 34.08 2 February 2006 66.36 30.96 3 February 2006 67.74 33.10 6 February 2006 67.89 32.95 7 February 2006 65.86 31.77 8 February 2006 65.95 32.38 9 February 2006 67.98 32.49 10 February 2006 69.97 36.95 13 February 2006 67.51 33.95 14 February 2006 68.42 38.94 15 February 2006 71.89 43.28 16 February 2006 72.26 42.47 17 February 2006 73.41 42.78 21 February 2006 68.95 34.79 22 February 2006 70.70 35.55 23 February 2006 68.60 37.47 24 February 2006 68.93 39.66 27 February 2006 66.47 38.84 28 February 2006 62.97 34.46 1 March 2006 67.89 39.41 2 March 2006 66.14 41.72 3 March 2006 69.36 45.49 6 March 2006 66.14 45.12 7 March 2006 69.08 45.89 8 March 2006 69.22 45.74 9 March 2006 70.67 48.09 10 March 2006 67.86 43.97 13 March 2006 68.91 45.59 14 March 2006 67.94 43.90 15 March 2006 67.89 44.19 16 March 2006 67.46 44.86 17 March 2006 69.37 46.26 20 March 2006 69.51 46.68 21 March 2006 69.78 48.33 22 March 2006 71.10 49.31 23 March 2006 68.82 42.27 24 March 2006 66.55 39.04 27 March 2006 66.43 38.69 28 March 2006 66.07 40.26 29 March 2006 63.87 38.01 30 March 2006 63.68 40.41 31 March 2006 64.51 41.41 3 April 2006 66.85 42.89 4 April 2006 63.96 39.94 5 April 2006 65.81 41.24 6 April 2006 64.79 41.21 7 April 2006 65.62 43.39 10 April 2006 66.82 46.39 11 April 2006 66.73 47.21 12 April 2006 65.49 46.75 13 April 2006 63.62 46.46 17 April 2006 63.95 46.53 18 April 2006 63.72 47.79 19 April 2006 66.16 49.24 20 April 2006 66.89 49.99 21 April 2006 67.13 50.42 24 April 2006 66.13 47.54 25 April 2006 66.11 48.26 26 April 2006 67.14 49.31 27 April 2006 64.22 49.07 28 April 2006 66.92 50.62 1 May 2006 68.88 54.64 2 May 2006 68.45 55.26 3 May 2006 69.15 56.86 4 May 2006 72.15 59.01 5 May 2006 69.98 55.45 8 May 2006 68.02 55.14 9 May 2006 66.54 54.31 10 May 2006 67.61 57.17 11 May 2006 65.48 52.09 12 May 2006 67.96 54.44 15 May 2006 69.68 57.81 16 May 2006 70.75 58.54 17 May 2006 69.84 58.60 18 May 2006 70.48 55.42 19 May 2006 72.85 57.51 22 May 2006 72.04 56.55 23 May 2006 74.23 57.85 24 May 2006 72.45 56.99 25 May 2006 74.99 58.88 26 May 2006 77.22 60.66 30 May 2006 74.72 58.18 31 May 2006 76.57 59.92 1 June 2006 76.89 59.54 2 June 2006 75.17 56.22 5 June 2006 77.82 57.17 6 June 2006 76.44 54.73 7 June 2006 78.13 57.51 8 June 2006 77.70 57.67 9 June 2006 78.44 58.27 12 June 2006 77.75 57.99 13 June 2006 77.19 59.10 14 June 2006 80.72 64.39 15 June 2006 78.70 62.33 16 June 2006 79.03 62.97 19 June 2006 77.56 63.81 20 June 2006 76.49 64.81 21 June 2006 77.56 66.01 22 June 2006 77.05 68.50 23 June 2006 77.20 71.87 26 June 2006 78.59 74.81 27 June 2006 81.73 77.85 28 June 2006 79.73 77.14 29 June 2006 77.94 75.19 30 June 2006 79.40 71.22 3 July 2006 81.63 72.12 5 July 2006 79.07 70.51 6 July 2006 82.57 73.72 7 July 2006 81.30 71.27 10 July 2006 81.56 70.84 11 July 2006 81.59 70.89 12 July 2006 81.87 71.15 13 July 2006 79.81 69.28 14 July 2006 82.19 72.01 17 July 2006 83.37 72.89 18 July 2006 82.13 72.16 19 July 2006 79.62 69.37 20 July 2006 77.46 64.82 21 July 2006 77.38 65.14 24 July 2006 77.63 66.02 25 July 2006 77.54 66.53 26 July 2006 76.47 65.01 27 July 2006 74.26 63.51 28 July 2006 72.47 60.83 31 July 2006 70.19 58.18 1 August 2006 72.27 59.39 2 August 2006 71.90 58.80 3 August 2006 73.62 60.24 4 August 2006 71.52 56.95 7 August 2006 77.49 57.24 8 August 2006 71.47 58.78 9 August 2006 72.40 58.65 10 August 2006 71.30 57.67 11 August 2006 72.11 58.97 14 August 2006 72.23 58.86 15 August 2006 71.49 58.27 16 August 2006 66.89 52.95 17 August 2006 67.07 51.03 18 August 2006 68.48 52.54 21 August 2006 69.52 53.88 22 August 2006 69.01 54.13 23 August 2006 71.24 55.89 24 August 2006 71.81 57.18 25 August 2006 69.38 53.29 28 August 2006 71.67 54.15 29 August 2006 70.90 52.66 30 August 2006 70.19 53.32 31 August 2006 70.78 51.78 1 September 2006 73.46 54.29 5 September 2006 70.39 48.50 6 September 2006 71.08 48.20 7 September 2006 70.34 48.70 8 September 2006 69.90 48.09 11 September 2006 70.44 49.28 12 September 2006 69.03 48.56 13 September 2006 68.77 47.49 14 September 2006 71.20 50.60 15 September 2006 73.88 53.30 18 September 2006 72.37 52.60 19 September 2006 69.85 49.49 20 September 2006 71.62 50.82 21 September 2006 65.42 44.87 22 September 2006 65.21 43.81 25 September 2006 64.28 44.39 26 September 2006 69.27 52.34 27 September 2006 65.76 48.39 28 September 2006 67.90 51.27 29 September 2006 69.26 53.35 2 October 2006 68.81 52.61 3 October 2006 69.49 53.31 4 October 2006 65.60 47.91 5 October 2006 67.82 51.22 6 October 2006 71.10 56.29 10 October 2006 73.01 62.76 11 October 2006 71.95 57.53 12 October 2006 70.78 57.34 13 October 2006 71.44 56.88 16 October 2006 69.62 55.60 17 October 2006 67.98 54.02 18 October 2006 67.52 53.54 19 October 2006 67.66 53.65 20 October 2006 70.61 56.70 23 October 2006 68.99 54.88 24 October 2006 68.50 54.71 25 October 2006 68.20 54.27 26 October 2006 65.86 52.34 27 October 2006 65.44 51.94 30 October 2006 68.48 54.12 31 October 2006 64.44 50.49 1 November 2006 61.74 47.30 2 November 2006 65.62 50.96 3 November 2006 69.48 55.64 6 November 2006 64.51 49.54 7 November 2006 61.57 47.50 8 November 2006 63.57 49.21 9 November 2006 63.51 48.85 10 November 2006 61.90 47.42 13 November 2006 62.22 48.62 14 November 2006 60.16 48.73 15 November 2006 62.12 51.80 16 November 2006 58.65 47.94 17 November 2006 54.34 42.78 20 November 2006 55.30 42.58 21 November 2006 54.41 41.42 22 November 2006 55.89 43.93 24 November 2006 56.21 43.81 27 November 2006 55.39 44.41 28 November 2006 51.96 41.07 29 November 2006 54.45 43.48 30 November 2006 47.44 39.23 1 December 2006 40.02 32.32 4 December 2006 43.52 36.14 5 December 2006 44.21 36.51 6 December 2006 48.54 42.73 7 December 2006 50.76 45.09 8 December 2006 54.88 47.72 11 December 2006 52.09 44.72 12 December 2006 47.70 40.44 13 December 2006 50.78 43.18 14 December 2006 50.85 41.91 15 December 2006 51.82 42.25 18 December 2006 52.76 44.41 19 December 2006 54.80 44.37 20 December 2006 54.50 42.22 21 December 2006 51.31 41.28 22 December 2006 53.30 42.42 26 December 2006 53.03 41.98 27 December 2006 53.74 42.38 28 December 2006 53.15 41.98 29 December 2006 52.97 42.31 2 January 2007 52.35 41.34 3 January 2007 48.92 37.67 4 January 2007 46.40 34.86 5 January 2007 48.40 36.89 8 January 2007 47.58 37.19 9 January 2007 50.93 39.93 10 January 2007 51.42 40.10 11 January 2007 51.96 42.53 12 January 2007 53.70 45.22 16 January 2007 53.76 45.57 17 January 2007 56.88 48.89 18 January 2007 55.77 47.87 19 January 2007 55.00 48.35 22 January 2007 53.70 46.52 23 January 2007 54.09 47.97 24 January 2007 56.77 49.88 25 January 2007 57.58 51.09 26 January 2007 59.73 52.57 29 January 2007 61.58 54.47 30 January 2007 61.65 53.88 31 January 2007 64.25 56.41 1 February 2007 62.82 54.08 2 February 2007 60.26 51.28 5 February 2007 57.39 48.87 6 February 2007 55.48 46.87 7 February 2007 55.56 47.26 8 February 2007 56.94 48.60 9 February 2007 59.69 52.55 12 February 2007 61.14 54.24 13 February 2007 60.47 54.64 14 February 2007 57.94 51.62 15 February 2007 56.74 49.44 16 February 2007 58.48 52.01 20 February 2007 57.68 50.87 21 February 2007 60.10 52.99 22 February 2007 60.17 54.07 23 February 2007 58.83 51.85 26 February 2007 56.91 49.69 27 February 2007 57.32 51.05 28 February 2007 65.33 52.14 1 March 2007 60.79 50.32 2 March 2007 59.35 49.71 5 March 2007 58.78 49.55 6 March 2007 63.73 53.91 7 March 2007 58.11 50.01 8 March 2007 61.63 53.26 9 March 2007 63.96 56.28 12 March 2007 59.84 52.09 13 March 2007 53.20 47.38 14 March 2007 58.86 52.31 15 March 2007 61.74 52.61 16 March 2007 61.31 53.49 19 March 2007 60.38 54.28 20 March 2007 59.64 52.49 21 March 2007 59.00 47.42 22 March 2007 58.88 52.29 23 March 2007 60.02 53.02 26 March 2007 59.65 52.73 27 March 2007 58.75 51.25 28 March 2007 62.75 53.24 29 March 2007 64.33 58.25 30 March 2007 63.83 56.55 2 April 2007 64.25 58.04 3 April 2007 62.66 58.27 4 April 2007 60.53 53.32 5 April 2007 60.71 55.63 9 April 2007 62.90 59.91 10 April 2007 62.87 56.17 11 April 2007 63.88 57.87 12 April 2007 64.86 58.47 13 April 2007 65.96 59.03 16 April 2007 64.00 57.33 17 April 2007 60.92 54.59 18 April 2007 60.63 53.56 19 April 2007 62.34 55.03 20 April 2007 62.26 54.91 23 April 2007 61.16 54.08 24 April 2007 61.58 55.38 25 April 2007 64.19 58.49 26 April 2007 65.43 59.32 27 April 2007 64.81 58.51 30 April 2007 63.47 57.05 1 May 2007 67.13 60.73 2 May 2007 66.01 59.59 3 May 2007 65.78 59.51 4 May 2007 65.60 58.89 7 May 2007 66.56 59.98 8 May 2007 64.08 56.63 9 May 2007 67.77 60.51 10 May 2007 65.49 58.46 11 May 2007 67.79 60.12 14 May 2007 68.58 61.71 15 May 2007 69.08 61.34 16 May 2007 69.67 61.80 17 May 2007 71.22 63.49 18 May 2007 69.93 62.60 21 May 2007 70.78 62.70 22 May 2007 70.97 63.66 23 May 2007 70.93 62.85 24 May 2007 73.10 64.69 25 May 2007 73.45 65.28 29 May 2007 74.57 66.29 30 May 2007 74.28 65.89 31 May 2007 74.77 66.24 1 June 2007 74.15 66.01 4 June 2007 76.02 67.63 5 June 2007 74.42 68.15 6 June 2007 75.63 68.09 7 June 2007 77.16 68.83 8 June 2007 78.04 71.04 11 June 2007 77.29 70.42 12 June 2007 68.49 62.77 13 June 2007 76.81 70.60 14 June 2007 76.46 70.11 15 June 2007 75.06 68.04 18 June 2007 75.31 69.44 19 June 2007 76.20 70.14 20 June 2007 77.33 71.90 21 June 2007 75.93 70.82 22 June 2007 78.62 72.22 25 June 2007 79.33 72.41 26 June 2007 78.57 71.86 27 June 2007 77.59 70.90 28 June 2007 79.73 77.14 29 June 2007 77.94 75.19 2 July 2007 80.34 73.81 3 July 2007 79.31 73.96 5 July 2007 78.32 72.79 6 July 2007 77.79 72.96 9 July 2007 80.56 74.73 10 July 2007 80.72 75.11 11 July 2007 81.12 75.23 12 July 2007 79.51 72.62 13 July 2007 81.08 74.24 16 July 2007 82.41 75.98 17 July 2007 85.27 78.61 18 July 2007 85.83 78.92 19 July 2007 86.72 80.17 20 July 2007 88.35 81.21 23 July 2007 89.91 81.18 24 July 2007 90.40 82.47 25 July 2007 90.62 82.33 26 July 2007 90.20 79.99 27 July 2007 95.58 84.13 30 July 2007 93.19 81.56 31 July 2007 94.47 82.31 1 August 2007 95.81 84.69 2 August 2007 95.13 83.12 3 August 2007 88.62 77.77 6 August 2007 87.31 75.15 7 August 2007 88.43 75.83 8 August 2007 82.29 70.63 9 August 2007 79.76 68.37 10 August 2007 84.13 72.18 13 August 2007 86.76 74.79 14 August 2007 93.41 80.97 15 August 2007 91.84 78.78 16 August 2007 105.67 92.75 17 August 2007 93.70 81.55 20 August 2007 98.36 81.54 21 August 2007 92.04 80.10 22 August 2007 91.47 78.72 23 August 2007 95.06 85.16 24 August 2007 91.16 82.25 27 August 2007 83.97 75.93 28 August 2007 87.00 77.01 29 August 2007 90.97 81.07 30 August 2007 94.13 87.25 31 August 2007 97.14 90.92 4 September 2007 97.89 89.52 5 September 2007 93.47 86.20 6 September 2007 92.90 85.40 7 September 2007 82.05 74.64 10 September 2007 82.20 72.01 11 September 2007 89.19 77.17 12 September 2007 82.28 74.67 13 September 2007 87.16 79.26 14 September 2007 86.84 78.79 17 September 2007 88.36 80.13 18 September 2007 75.96 66.31 19 September 2007 74.84 66.95 20 September 2007 83.25 79.15 21 September 2007 80.29 76.13 24 September 2007 83.30 78.11 25 September 2007 86.64 80.49 26 September 2007 84.78 78.58 27 September 2007 84.61 77.77 28 September 2007 86.44 79.03 1 October 2007 82.77 79.95 2 October 2007 86.10 76.57 3 October 2007 85.81 81.12 4 October 2007 83.60 78.65 5 October 2007 87.08 81.30 9 October 2007 86.98 82.80 10 October 2007 86.18 79.80 11 October 2007 86.25 79.88 12 October 2007 89.32 82.56 15 October 2007 86.98 78.56 16 October 2007 88.60 76.89 17 October 2007 86.61 78.50 18 October 2007 88.97 78.64 19 October 2007 86.63 75.65 22 October 2007 90.01 77.94 23 October 2007 87.60 74.94 24 October 2007 83.50 70.20 25 October 2007 85.26 71.80 26 October 2007 87.80 74.89 29 October 2007 86.15 75.08 30 October 2007 87.70 73.93 31 October 2007 92.91 81.26 1 November 2007 91.92 76.58 2 November 2007 96.86 78.20 5 November 2007 105.26 87.78 6 November 2007 106.11 88.28 7 November 2007 108.70 87.61 8 November 2007 111.35 86.86 9 November 2007 115.45 89.10 13 November 2007 113.29 90.25 14 November 2007 113.02 87.03 15 November 2007 112.86 87.57 16 November 2007 117.83 92.23 19 November 2007 126.00 95.68 20 November 2007 135.62 101.29 21 November 2007 134.19 101.41 23 November 2007 114.97 65.39 26 November 2007 123.94 80.59 27 November 2007 107.81 64.87 28 November 2007 99.33 64.70 29 November 2007 97.55 63.06 30 November 2007 86.46 59.96 3 December 2007 91.43 65.79 4 December 2007 89.45 63.77 5 December 2007 83.57 57.59 6 December 2007 95.13 72.16 7 December 2007 105.32 84.12 10 December 2007 104.35 82.43 11 December 2007 96.85 76.47 12 December 2007 94.73 73.37 13 December 2007 97.41 75.26 14 December 2007 101.35 79.50 17 December 2007 95.89 74.66 18 December 2007 95.11 74.62 19 December 2007 83.43 64.41 20 December 2007 84.36 65.47 21 December 2007 94.81 74.71 24 December 2007 96.24 76.42 26 December 2007 96.35 77.92 27 December 2007 96.53 78.25 28 December 2007 84.47 67.61 31 December 2007 82.95 66.09 2 January 2008 73.90 57.56 3 January 2008 75.30 58.20 4 January 2008 67.64 49.98 7 January 2008 69.36 52.64 8 January 2008 66.71 49.74 9 January 2008 74.24 55.73 10 January 2008 70.29 50.73 11 January 2008 73.72 56.03 14 January 2008 61.33 48.40 15 January 2008 54.64 44.75 16 January 2008 66.96 54.59 17 January 2008 65.59 56.62 18 January 2008 64.59 54.72 22 January 2008 68.20 57.09 23 January 2008 60.90 48.61 24 January 2008 69.53 55.66 25 January 2008 71.75 69.50 28 January 2008 69.70 53.90 29 January 2008 59.43 50.26 30 January 2008 70.80 62.69 31 January 2008 71.48 66.14 1 February 2008 73.59 69.35 4 February 2008 77.66 67.11 5 February 2008 74.27 68.35 6 February 2008 77.47 67.87 7 February 2008 93.47 78.68 8 February 2008 93.92 79.75 11 February 2008 94.98 79.57 12 February 2008 98.10 78.82 13 February 2008 102.72 81.28 14 February 2008 116.74 90.00 15 February 2008 124.94 102.22 19 February 2008 135.64 108.08 20 February 2008 134.19 105.92 21 February 2008 118.62 91.63 22 February 2008 132.46 99.36 25 February 2008 138.79 101.27 26 February 2008 140.18 103.41 27 February 2008 128.32 92.77 28 February 2008 118.67 82.03 29 February 2008 114.86 79.17 3 March 2008 128.80 89.68 4 March 2008 152.64 98.89 5 March 2008 159.16 114.22 6 March 2008 195.66 146.88 7 March 2008 182.41 135.98 10 March 2008 171.87 125.20 11 March 2008 162.49 122.05 12 March 2008 143.38 105.73 13 March 2008 143.28 104.40 14 March 2008 136.85 99.05 17 March 2008 109.47 87.85 18 March 2008 117.24 82.44 19 March 2008 106.70 88.25 20 March 2008 104.67 91.58 24 March 2008 113.64 86.93 25 March 2008 109.41 86.05 26 March 2008 107.30 84.66 27 March 2008 117.62 93.42 28 March 2008 121.34 97.91 31 March 2008 112.78 90.62 1 April 2008 127.10 106.38 2 April 2008 130.22 112.41 3 April 2008 129.34 110.77 4 April 2008 107.51 89.48 7 April 2008 107.19 89.94 8 April 2008 111.64 91.52 9 April 2008 108.65 91.45 10 April 2008 117.28 93.73 11 April 2008 109.29 90.08 14 April 2008 117.94 95.44 15 April 2008 167.52 127.01 16 April 2008 134.58 109.71 17 April 2008 127.39 102.88 18 April 2008 120.87 98.43 21 April 2008 108.97 90.01 22 April 2008 108.34 89.22 23 April 2008 101.94 84.04 24 April 2008 109.38 90.79 25 April 2008 105.84 89.19 28 April 2008 101.34 86.52 29 April 2008 101.17 85.30 30 April 2008 98.31 83.39 1 May 2008 103.99 88.97 2 May 2008 102.72 87.33 5 May 2008 97.49 81.82 6 May 2008 99.46 85.08 7 May 2008 97.48 81.64 8 May 2008 90.10 75.03 9 May 2008 97.95 82.06 12 May 2008 101.83 87.22 13 May 2008 112.52 96.09 14 May 2008 108.07 94.07 15 May 2008 91.75 76.88 16 May 2008 90.98 76.24 19 May 2008 91.65 76.70 20 May 2008 88.35 73.30 21 May 2008 94.14 79.62 22 May 2008 95.57 85.07 23 May 2008 98.62 84.55 27 May 2008 104.36 89.17 28 May 2008 105.29 90.39 29 May 2008 106.17 92.54 30 May 2008 108.57 92.86 2 June 2008 105.74 89.98 3 June 2008 105.50 90.56 4 June 2008 116.21 100.30 5 June 2008 120.82 105.13 6 June 2008 123.80 106.23 9 June 2008 120.22 105.15 10 June 2008 123.03 111.68 11 June 2008 122.00 108.38 12 June 2008 122.78 112.34 13 June 2008 121.78 112.21 16 June 2008 125.09 114.63 17 June 2008 124.79 112.71 18 June 2008 121.25 107.01 19 June 2008 116.67 105.05 20 June 2008 116.47 106.44 23 June 2008 123.32 113.38 24 June 2008 124.18 112.18 25 June 2008 126.64 112.92 26 June 2008 127.29 113.15 27 June 2008 130.90 112.50 30 June 2008 125.92 107.32 1 July 2008 128.78 109.75 2 July 2008 138.32 117.81 3 July 2008 146.59 126.17 7 July 2008 164.12 133.25 8 July 2008 152.26 122.16 9 July 2008 141.58 110.76 10 July 2008 135.18 103.96 11 July 2008 126.79 102.85 14 July 2008 117.89 106.30 15 July 2008 125.26 111.15 16 July 2008 132.07 118.40 17 July 2008 146.46 133.55 18 July 2008 154.70 137.80 21 July 2008 156.78 140.72 22 July 2008 162.59 143.60 23 July 2008 148.66 128.87 24 July 2008 146.66 122.94 25 July 2008 143.90 126.08 28 July 2008 146.45 126.23 29 July 2008 147.83 129.22 30 July 2008 148.13 128.96 As shown in the figure, the series end on July 31, 2008. Fannie Mae ends at about 150 basis points, and Ginnie Mae ends at about 125 basis points. A vertical line marks the FOMC meeting on June 24-25, 2008. Note. Spreads over Treasury. Source. Bloomberg. Figure: Agency and non-agency MBS issuance A stacked bar chart shows three series, "GSEs", "Ginnie Mae", and "Non-agency" from 2001 through 2006, 2007:H1 and H2, and 2008:Q1, Q2*, and July**. Data are monthly rates; unit is billions of dollars. The approximate values for "GSEs", "Ginnie Mae", and "Non-Agency" are as follows: 2001: 75, 15, and 20. 2002: 105, 20, and 25. 2003: 160, 10, and 45. 2004: 75, 12.5, 62.5. 2005: 75, 9, 90. 2006: 70, 5, 80. 2007, H1: 80, 5, and 75. H2: 95, 10, and 25. 2008, Q1: 90, 15, and 0.1. Q2: 95, 23, and 0. J: 74, 25, and 0. * Estimate based on Inside Mortgage Finance MBS database. Return to text ** Estimate based on Inside Mortgage Finance MBS database as of July 25 for the GSEs and Bloomberg as of July 28 for Ginnie Mae. Return to text Source. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Inside Mortgage Finance MBS database, and Bloomberg. Figure: CDS spreads for commercial banks Daily Basis points Date Regional bank index Large bank index 1 January 2007 14.47 7.55 2 January 2007 14.39 6.87 3 January 2007 15.10 6.96 4 January 2007 15.10 6.81 5 January 2007 15.10 7.56 8 January 2007 15.10 7.51 9 January 2007 15.10 7.30 10 January 2007 15.10 7.10 11 January 2007 15.10 7.15 12 January 2007 14.40 7.32 15 January 2007 14.40 7.34 16 January 2007 14.41 7.41 17 January 2007 13.73 7.33 18 January 2007 13.73 7.31 19 January 2007 13.73 7.31 22 January 2007 13.73 7.32 23 January 2007 13.75 6.95 24 January 2007 13.75 7.76 25 January 2007 13.75 7.88 26 January 2007 13.75 7.94 29 January 2007 13.75 7.89 30 January 2007 13.75 7.03 31 January 2007 13.77 7.05 1 February 2007 13.77 7.03 2 February 2007 13.77 7.04 5 February 2007 13.77 7.82 6 February 2007 13.77 7.84 7 February 2007 13.77 8.11 8 February 2007 13.79 8.08 9 February 2007 13.79 8.12 12 February 2007 13.79 8.24 13 February 2007 13.79 8.42 14 February 2007 13.79 8.66 15 February 2007 13.79 8.58 16 February 2007 13.79 8.59 19 February 2007 13.79 8.63 20 February 2007 12.78 8.64 21 February 2007 16.28 8.53 22 February 2007 13.75 8.60 23 February 2007 14.26 9.30 26 February 2007 14.78 9.46 27 February 2007 14.78 10.49 28 February 2007 14.78 10.54 1 March 2007 14.78 10.54 2 March 2007 14.78 10.55 5 March 2007 14.79 10.58 6 March 2007 14.79 10.53 7 March 2007 14.79 10.93 8 March 2007 14.79 10.94 9 March 2007 14.79 10.87 12 March 2007 14.80 11.17 13 March 2007 14.80 11.28 14 March 2007 14.80 14.08 15 March 2007 14.80 14.15 16 March 2007 16.14 14.89 19 March 2007 16.14 15.41 20 March 2007 16.35 15.15 21 March 2007 16.18 14.32 22 March 2007 16.18 13.35 23 March 2007 16.17 12.97 26 March 2007 16.17 12.26 27 March 2007 16.17 12.15 28 March 2007 16.25 12.60 29 March 2007 16.25 12.59 30 March 2007 16.33 12.67 2 April 2007 16.33 12.98 3 April 2007 16.33 13.06 4 April 2007 16.33 13.07 5 April 2007 16.33 13.16 6 April 2007 16.33 13.16 9 April 2007 16.25 13.16 10 April 2007 16.29 13.06 11 April 2007 16.29 12.72 12 April 2007 16.29 12.54 13 April 2007 16.29 12.54 16 April 2007 16.29 12.55 17 April 2007 16.29 12.56 18 April 2007 16.29 12.69 19 April 2007 16.29 12.63 20 April 2007 16.29 12.39 23 April 2007 16.25 12.26 24 April 2007 16.25 12.23 25 April 2007 16.68 12.22 26 April 2007 16.33 12.41 27 April 2007 16.33 12.14 30 April 2007 16.33 12.05 1 May 2007 16.33 9.15 2 May 2007 16.33 12.51 3 May 2007 16.33 12.34 4 May 2007 16.25 11.07 7 May 2007 16.33 11.04 8 May 2007 16.42 11.02 9 May 2007 15.01 11.03 10 May 2007 15.01 9.93 11 May 2007 14.75 9.98 14 May 2007 14.76 11.06 15 May 2007 14.76 11.06 16 May 2007 15.76 11.02 17 May 2007 15.76 11.02 18 May 2007 14.77 11.02 21 May 2007 14.77 11.06 22 May 2007 14.77 11.04 23 May 2007 14.77 11.04 24 May 2007 14.77 11.02 25 May 2007 14.78 9.50 28 May 2007 15.37 9.50 29 May 2007 14.84 9.50 30 May 2007 15.50 9.50 31 May 2007 15.41 9.50 1 June 2007 15.23 9.50 4 June 2007 15.23 9.50 5 June 2007 15.07 9.50 6 June 2007 15.10 9.50 7 June 2007 15.27 9.32 8 June 2007 15.56 9.32 11 June 2007 15.62 9.32 12 June 2007 15.63 9.32 13 June 2007 15.80 9.59 14 June 2007 15.88 9.79 15 June 2007 15.78 9.74 18 June 2007 15.27 9.94 19 June 2007 15.51 9.84 20 June 2007 15.88 9.49 21 June 2007 15.88 9.49 22 June 2007 15.88 9.49 25 June 2007 15.73 9.49 26 June 2007 15.69 9.66 27 June 2007 16.25 9.66 28 June 2007 16.07 9.66 29 June 2007 16.33 10.78 2 July 2007 16.33 12.07 3 July 2007 16.33 11.54 4 July 2007 16.33 11.54 5 July 2007 16.33 11.54 6 July 2007 16.33 11.54 9 July 2007 16.33 11.54 10 July 2007 16.85 12.32 11 July 2007 16.87 12.32 12 July 2007 17.08 12.32 13 July 2007 17.30 12.32 16 July 2007 17.21 12.32 17 July 2007 18.23 12.42 18 July 2007 17.39 12.42 19 July 2007 18.73 16.29 20 July 2007 19.79 19.85 23 July 2007 19.70 19.73 24 July 2007 22.17 17.76 25 July 2007 22.55 20.36 26 July 2007 20.16 24.84 27 July 2007 25.00 24.02 30 July 2007 32.75 22.27 31 July 2007 35.32 31.93 1 August 2007 37.02 33.75 2 August 2007 35.50 33.75 3 August 2007 35.75 36.54 6 August 2007 39.47 38.89 7 August 2007 39.04 39.78 8 August 2007 39.09 35.72 9 August 2007 39.23 40.32 10 August 2007 39.76 40.58 13 August 2007 33.60 39.82 14 August 2007 37.00 43.06 15 August 2007 37.00 43.64 16 August 2007 37.00 43.66 17 August 2007 36.00 43.66 20 August 2007 35.67 40.00 21 August 2007 35.67 35.74 22 August 2007 34.58 34.72 23 August 2007 36.00 32.17 24 August 2007 35.89 33.82 27 August 2007 35.89 31.33 28 August 2007 36.26 34.29 29 August 2007 37.54 33.69 30 August 2007 35.72 34.17 31 August 2007 36.92 34.73 3 September 2007 36.92 34.84 4 September 2007 36.92 36.14 5 September 2007 36.92 35.97 6 September 2007 36.92 36.57 7 September 2007 36.82 37.65 10 September 2007 37.27 38.62 11 September 2007 37.18 38.28 12 September 2007 37.53 37.05 13 September 2007 37.51 36.76 14 September 2007 37.09 37.69 17 September 2007 37.10 37.55 18 September 2007 36.79 35.21 19 September 2007 36.89 29.50 20 September 2007 35.25 29.63 21 September 2007 35.25 30.00 24 September 2007 35.78 31.98 25 September 2007 35.25 33.00 26 September 2007 35.25 30.00 27 September 2007 35.25 32.33 28 September 2007 34.94 32.78 1 October 2007 35.25 32.26 2 October 2007 35.25 31.13 3 October 2007 35.25 29.38 4 October 2007 34.21 28.13 5 October 2007 34.37 27.07 8 October 2007 34.31 26.53 9 October 2007 35.25 24.71 10 October 2007 35.48 23.55 11 October 2007 34.06 23.26 12 October 2007 33.22 23.32 15 October 2007 33.22 24.33 16 October 2007 32.99 24.60 17 October 2007 34.12 26.77 18 October 2007 35.87 29.07 19 October 2007 35.25 30.54 22 October 2007 35.25 32.48 23 October 2007 35.25 32.60 24 October 2007 34.63 35.03 25 October 2007 34.63 36.42 26 October 2007 34.63 35.68 29 October 2007 34.63 31.99 30 October 2007 34.00 36.29 31 October 2007 34.00 36.37 1 November 2007 34.63 37.20 2 November 2007 35.65 43.72 5 November 2007 37.42 45.19 6 November 2007 37.58 43.80 7 November 2007 39.04 50.53 8 November 2007 38.90 59.62 9 November 2007 38.81 67.23 12 November 2007 38.79 67.21 13 November 2007 38.74 63.04 14 November 2007 38.68 53.42 15 November 2007 37.37 54.27 16 November 2007 36.08 54.84 19 November 2007 38.66 60.60 20 November 2007 39.53 64.03 21 November 2007 47.75 69.58 22 November 2007 47.75 70.96 23 November 2007 50.85 69.08 26 November 2007 47.75 68.90 27 November 2007 47.75 66.85 28 November 2007 54.78 64.21 29 November 2007 55.32 59.08 30 November 2007 57.10 55.77 3 December 2007 57.68 58.24 4 December 2007 57.97 58.88 5 December 2007 57.22 55.92 6 December 2007 55.42 53.74 7 December 2007 53.36 44.33 10 December 2007 53.36 43.67 11 December 2007 52.65 43.97 12 December 2007 49.44 45.59 13 December 2007 55.86 50.78 14 December 2007 55.87 51.86 17 December 2007 55.87 55.57 18 December 2007 50.35 58.52 19 December 2007 50.35 58.68 20 December 2007 50.35 59.24 21 December 2007 50.35 59.43 24 December 2007 50.35 59.43 25 December 2007 50.35 59.45 26 December 2007 50.35 58.31 27 December 2007 50.35 58.20 28 December 2007 50.35 58.17 31 December 2007 50.35 57.99 1 January 2008 50.35 57.99 2 January 2008 49.00 64.38 3 January 2008 48.92 67.68 4 January 2008 55.97 72.44 7 January 2008 57.56 75.24 8 January 2008 58.24 74.98 9 January 2008 59.91 80.00 10 January 2008 60.25 80.00 11 January 2008 58.29 80.00 14 January 2008 57.90 80.00 15 January 2008 57.70 79.87 16 January 2008 57.60 79.10 17 January 2008 68.05 80.00 18 January 2008 67.35 83.44 21 January 2008 66.99 84.99 22 January 2008 66.99 86.25 23 January 2008 66.82 80.00 24 January 2008 66.45 67.00 25 January 2008 66.45 66.35 28 January 2008 76.98 68.33 29 January 2008 76.98 68.20 30 January 2008 77.36 67.14 31 January 2008 77.03 69.99 1 February 2008 76.98 67.53 4 February 2008 76.98 68.41 5 February 2008 80.01 70.87 6 February 2008 80.01 71.82 7 February 2008 90.50 74.82 8 February 2008 90.38 76.14 11 February 2008 93.01 80.21 12 February 2008 97.18 84.58 13 February 2008 97.24 85.25 14 February 2008 97.26 86.35 15 February 2008 99.11 95.62 18 February 2008 99.04 95.72 19 February 2008 99.26 97.47 20 February 2008 101.66 99.74 21 February 2008 101.68 95.00 22 February 2008 93.33 94.55 25 February 2008 93.33 91.87 26 February 2008 93.11 86.58 27 February 2008 93.04 87.22 28 February 2008 94.77 93.73 29 February 2008 96.88 102.74 3 March 2008 99.13 106.32 4 March 2008 99.13 122.60 5 March 2008 100.13 119.62 6 March 2008 119.12 134.03 7 March 2008 107.00 137.33 10 March 2008 106.60 150.00 11 March 2008 106.15 133.75 12 March 2008 106.90 142.79 13 March 2008 108.19 152.70 14 March 2008 108.69 158.11 17 March 2008 110.47 158.39 18 March 2008 108.22 123.27 19 March 2008 108.14 116.08 20 March 2008 121.85 114.74 21 March 2008 121.85 114.80 24 March 2008 121.48 105.09 25 March 2008 121.39 89.99 26 March 2008 121.32 97.83 27 March 2008 121.22 97.39 28 March 2008 107.38 98.27 31 March 2008 108.14 98.19 1 April 2008 110.33 92.50 2 April 2008 108.66 92.67 3 April 2008 108.74 87.56 4 April 2008 109.01 84.55 7 April 2008 110.89 80.36 8 April 2008 110.21 82.71 9 April 2008 109.67 89.65 10 April 2008 109.97 93.90 11 April 2008 110.15 93.83 14 April 2008 110.28 97.31 15 April 2008 109.70 96.46 16 April 2008 108.61 88.84 17 April 2008 108.69 86.45 18 April 2008 109.05 75.30 21 April 2008 108.89 74.78 22 April 2008 108.80 77.41 23 April 2008 108.48 77.77 24 April 2008 108.64 79.23 25 April 2008 108.33 75.98 28 April 2008 103.39 70.49 29 April 2008 103.74 68.76 30 April 2008 103.35 64.24 1 May 2008 103.39 58.50 2 May 2008 103.02 55.17 5 May 2008 102.84 61.63 6 May 2008 102.64 67.38 7 May 2008 102.35 68.17 8 May 2008 97.61 68.58 9 May 2008 98.09 69.42 12 May 2008 98.28 68.03 13 May 2008 97.71 66.57 14 May 2008 97.54 65.05 15 May 2008 97.97 62.35 16 May 2008 98.03 61.39 19 May 2008 96.19 60.60 20 May 2008 96.86 62.75 21 May 2008 97.36 64.75 22 May 2008 99.57 68.80 23 May 2008 99.68 69.98 26 May 2008 99.70 70.24 27 May 2008 99.57 75.40 28 May 2008 99.43 77.40 29 May 2008 99.76 77.44 30 May 2008 99.62 76.81 2 June 2008 99.95 80.66 3 June 2008 99.54 81.98 4 June 2008 99.20 87.75 5 June 2008 98.92 85.05 6 June 2008 99.07 85.35 9 June 2008 99.48 85.49 10 June 2008 99.49 86.43 11 June 2008 99.36 86.40 12 June 2008 99.19 84.89 13 June 2008 99.21 84.58 16 June 2008 94.79 83.45 17 June 2008 96.06 80.67 18 June 2008 107.49 82.60 19 June 2008 111.55 86.04 20 June 2008 115.37 94.00 23 June 2008 130.32 92.13 24 June 2008 131.15 96.67 25 June 2008 132.59 95.14 26 June 2008 139.32 102.61 27 June 2008 165.64 106.90 30 June 2008 143.22 109.50 1 July 2008 161.34 120.80 2 July 2008 161.13 116.46 3 July 2008 174.71 116.05 4 July 2008 175.64 114.06 7 July 2008 148.02 113.98 8 July 2008 150.74 113.10 9 July 2008 146.34 108.50 10 July 2008 151.88 110.35 11 July 2008 152.30 113.65 14 July 2008 157.04 114.21 15 July 2008 162.73 130.30 16 July 2008 163.95 131.31 17 July 2008 172.11 122.61 18 July 2008 165.49 122.63 21 July 2008 161.74 112.87 22 July 2008 161.31 111.94 23 July 2008 161.07 94.33 24 July 2008 158.47 96.77 25 July 2008 156.07 107.28 28 July 2008 156.30 113.02 As shown in the figure, the series end on July 30, 2008. The regional bank index ends at about 170, and the large bank index ends at about 110. A vertical line marks the FOMC meeting on June 24-25, 2008. Note. Median spreads for 7 regional and 5 large commercial banks. Source. Markit. Figure: CDS spreads for investment banks Daily Date Basis points 1 January 2007 18.22 2 January 2007 18.22 3 January 2007 18.28 4 January 2007 18.22 5 January 2007 18.50 8 January 2007 18.63 9 January 2007 18.76 10 January 2007 18.88 11 January 2007 18.96 12 January 2007 19.00 15 January 2007 18.99 16 January 2007 18.95 17 January 2007 18.87 18 January 2007 18.64 19 January 2007 18.84 22 January 2007 18.84 23 January 2007 18.80 24 January 2007 18.92 25 January 2007 19.00 26 January 2007 19.37 29 January 2007 19.32 30 January 2007 19.52 31 January 2007 19.62 1 February 2007 19.58 2 February 2007 19.40 5 February 2007 19.51 6 February 2007 19.33 7 February 2007 19.32 8 February 2007 19.36 9 February 2007 19.50 12 February 2007 20.59 13 February 2007 21.04 14 February 2007 21.30 15 February 2007 21.28 16 February 2007 21.30 19 February 2007 21.34 20 February 2007 21.36 21 February 2007 21.53 22 February 2007 21.71 23 February 2007 23.88 26 February 2007 23.44 27 February 2007 25.48 28 February 2007 26.15 1 March 2007 26.19 2 March 2007 26.59 5 March 2007 28.24 6 March 2007 27.09 7 March 2007 26.84 8 March 2007 26.45 9 March 2007 26.94 12 March 2007 26.55 13 March 2007 27.37 14 March 2007 28.07 15 March 2007 27.24 16 March 2007 28.63 19 March 2007 27.68 20 March 2007 26.77 21 March 2007 25.40 22 March 2007 25.01 23 March 2007 24.76 26 March 2007 24.75 27 March 2007 25.01 28 March 2007 25.49 29 March 2007 25.55 30 March 2007 25.92 2 April 2007 26.60 3 April 2007 26.73 4 April 2007 26.80 5 April 2007 25.87 6 April 2007 25.93 9 April 2007 25.91 10 April 2007 25.66 11 April 2007 24.97 12 April 2007 24.88 13 April 2007 24.74 16 April 2007 24.51 17 April 2007 24.50 18 April 2007 24.33 19 April 2007 23.58 20 April 2007 23.29 23 April 2007 23.10 24 April 2007 23.01 25 April 2007 23.34 26 April 2007 23.98 27 April 2007 23.92 30 April 2007 24.04 1 May 2007 23.87 2 May 2007 23.75 3 May 2007 23.65 4 May 2007 23.53 7 May 2007 23.32 8 May 2007 23.22 9 May 2007 23.17 10 May 2007 23.18 11 May 2007 23.02 14 May 2007 22.83 15 May 2007 22.64 16 May 2007 22.55 17 May 2007 22.51 18 May 2007 22.55 21 May 2007 22.49 22 May 2007 22.62 23 May 2007 22.65 24 May 2007 22.67 25 May 2007 22.80 28 May 2007 22.80 29 May 2007 22.91 30 May 2007 23.17 31 May 2007 22.99 1 June 2007 22.99 4 June 2007 22.96 5 June 2007 23.13 6 June 2007 23.57 7 June 2007 23.96 8 June 2007 24.40 11 June 2007 24.43 12 June 2007 24.85 13 June 2007 25.08 14 June 2007 24.68 15 June 2007 24.16 18 June 2007 24.50 19 June 2007 24.41 20 June 2007 26.45 21 June 2007 27.14 22 June 2007 27.71 25 June 2007 28.04 26 June 2007 27.83 27 June 2007 28.17 28 June 2007 28.11 29 June 2007 28.82 2 July 2007 29.28 3 July 2007 29.09 4 July 2007 29.19 5 July 2007 29.28 6 July 2007 29.22 9 July 2007 29.73 10 July 2007 32.24 11 July 2007 38.78 12 July 2007 36.97 13 July 2007 36.64 16 July 2007 36.03 17 July 2007 37.46 18 July 2007 40.12 19 July 2007 40.04 20 July 2007 47.14 23 July 2007 47.06 24 July 2007 49.67 25 July 2007 53.64 26 July 2007 73.62 27 July 2007 76.73 30 July 2007 74.57 31 July 2007 64.36 1 August 2007 67.39 2 August 2007 65.11 3 August 2007 72.38 6 August 2007 75.74 7 August 2007 69.16 8 August 2007 60.30 9 August 2007 66.45 10 August 2007 70.89 13 August 2007 66.27 14 August 2007 67.75 15 August 2007 71.44 16 August 2007 72.65 17 August 2007 67.95 20 August 2007 61.11 21 August 2007 58.37 22 August 2007 54.80 23 August 2007 53.89 24 August 2007 55.24 27 August 2007 53.92 28 August 2007 56.05 29 August 2007 58.58 30 August 2007 60.78 31 August 2007 59.92 3 September 2007 59.60 4 September 2007 58.35 5 September 2007 58.05 6 September 2007 57.56 7 September 2007 58.99 10 September 2007 58.86 11 September 2007 56.79 12 September 2007 57.22 13 September 2007 55.88 14 September 2007 55.12 17 September 2007 54.25 18 September 2007 47.79 19 September 2007 44.37 20 September 2007 40.70 21 September 2007 40.74 24 September 2007 45.12 25 September 2007 48.75 26 September 2007 46.00 27 September 2007 46.71 28 September 2007 47.27 1 October 2007 46.94 2 October 2007 46.30 3 October 2007 46.29 4 October 2007 44.85 5 October 2007 44.59 8 October 2007 44.57 9 October 2007 40.57 10 October 2007 40.79 11 October 2007 40.26 12 October 2007 42.50 15 October 2007 42.73 16 October 2007 45.96 17 October 2007 48.34 18 October 2007 48.13 19 October 2007 52.13 22 October 2007 50.71 23 October 2007 48.49 24 October 2007 50.62 25 October 2007 52.60 26 October 2007 53.46 29 October 2007 51.66 30 October 2007 52.57 31 October 2007 56.20 1 November 2007 65.34 2 November 2007 79.15 5 November 2007 81.51 6 November 2007 77.76 7 November 2007 86.28 8 November 2007 89.36 9 November 2007 89.52 12 November 2007 89.40 13 November 2007 79.47 14 November 2007 73.21 15 November 2007 77.05 16 November 2007 77.68 19 November 2007 86.23 20 November 2007 92.02 21 November 2007 97.79 22 November 2007 98.13 23 November 2007 93.54 26 November 2007 91.24 27 November 2007 85.80 28 November 2007 73.53 29 November 2007 73.81 30 November 2007 68.96 3 December 2007 75.26 4 December 2007 81.23 5 December 2007 78.74 6 December 2007 72.79 7 December 2007 67.08 10 December 2007 63.98 11 December 2007 68.33 12 December 2007 67.56 13 December 2007 69.62 14 December 2007 69.80 17 December 2007 70.11 18 December 2007 69.06 19 December 2007 69.57 20 December 2007 69.36 21 December 2007 69.25 24 December 2007 69.20 25 December 2007 69.18 26 December 2007 68.98 27 December 2007 69.07 28 December 2007 68.96 31 December 2007 69.34 1 January 2008 69.41 2 January 2008 71.27 3 January 2008 73.57 4 January 2008 78.41 7 January 2008 81.28 8 January 2008 83.49 9 January 2008 87.69 10 January 2008 86.25 11 January 2008 90.10 14 January 2008 86.92 15 January 2008 86.22 16 January 2008 84.90 17 January 2008 89.17 18 January 2008 92.27 21 January 2008 94.79 22 January 2008 99.03 23 January 2008 88.97 24 January 2008 80.63 25 January 2008 78.81 28 January 2008 81.55 29 January 2008 80.30 30 January 2008 81.31 31 January 2008 85.88 1 February 2008 83.95 4 February 2008 84.07 5 February 2008 89.15 6 February 2008 90.79 7 February 2008 93.61 8 February 2008 98.92 11 February 2008 106.33 12 February 2008 110.10 13 February 2008 110.86 14 February 2008 112.62 15 February 2008 123.21 18 February 2008 125.07 19 February 2008 128.29 20 February 2008 132.87 21 February 2008 132.67 22 February 2008 133.65 25 February 2008 135.76 26 February 2008 134.74 27 February 2008 137.90 28 February 2008 147.93 29 February 2008 165.15 3 March 2008 174.30 4 March 2008 186.25 5 March 2008 186.01 6 March 2008 201.49 7 March 2008 209.09 10 March 2008 235.72 11 March 2008 221.71 12 March 2008 215.62 13 March 2008 227.86 14 March 2008 237.52 17 March 2008 241.13 18 March 2008 168.87 19 March 2008 167.12 20 March 2008 167.39 21 March 2008 167.91 24 March 2008 140.66 25 March 2008 141.82 26 March 2008 151.48 27 March 2008 156.28 28 March 2008 159.71 31 March 2008 159.38 1 April 2008 145.39 2 April 2008 132.15 3 April 2008 126.27 4 April 2008 121.34 7 April 2008 115.83 8 April 2008 120.29 9 April 2008 125.46 10 April 2008 130.36 11 April 2008 129.30 14 April 2008 127.93 15 April 2008 123.13 16 April 2008 110.33 17 April 2008 107.92 18 April 2008 92.30 21 April 2008 95.01 22 April 2008 97.45 23 April 2008 99.25 24 April 2008 101.27 25 April 2008 97.86 28 April 2008 94.80 29 April 2008 96.29 30 April 2008 90.67 1 May 2008 86.07 2 May 2008 78.62 5 May 2008 80.74 6 May 2008 84.98 7 May 2008 86.21 8 May 2008 86.90 9 May 2008 87.76 12 May 2008 87.76 13 May 2008 85.04 14 May 2008 83.60 15 May 2008 82.67 16 May 2008 81.33 19 May 2008 80.76 20 May 2008 81.41 21 May 2008 83.41 22 May 2008 91.96 23 May 2008 93.72 26 May 2008 93.84 27 May 2008 95.46 28 May 2008 90.90 29 May 2008 88.98 30 May 2008 88.37 2 June 2008 91.97 3 June 2008 93.02 4 June 2008 96.61 5 June 2008 91.49 6 June 2008 94.26 9 June 2008 94.95 10 June 2008 98.87 11 June 2008 101.85 12 June 2008 100.37 13 June 2008 100.26 16 June 2008 98.88 17 June 2008 93.06 18 June 2008 96.37 19 June 2008 99.34 20 June 2008 105.91 23 June 2008 104.47 24 June 2008 107.49 25 June 2008 105.97 26 June 2008 121.47 27 June 2008 122.24 30 June 2008 118.64 1 July 2008 123.51 2 July 2008 118.27 3 July 2008 118.15 4 July 2008 118.05 7 July 2008 117.40 8 July 2008 117.93 9 July 2008 116.40 10 July 2008 119.45 11 July 2008 127.51 14 July 2008 128.85 15 July 2008 146.31 16 July 2008 143.58 17 July 2008 133.14 18 July 2008 131.47 21 July 2008 124.10 22 July 2008 122.62 23 July 2008 111.73 24 July 2008 114.54 25 July 2008 121.53 28 July 2008 124.33 29 July 2008 120.04 As shown in the figure, the series ends on July 30, 2008 at about 110 basis points. A vertical line marks the FOMC meeting on June 24-25, 2008. Note. Median spread for 10 investment banks. Source. Markit. Chart 2 Interest Rate Developments Figure: Probability density for target funds rate after the August FOMC meeting A bar chart shows two series, "Futures market"*, and "Desk's survey"** in terms of values that are 1.75, 2.00 and 2.25. Unit is percent. The "Futures market" series for the value of 1.75 is at about 7 percent, for the value of 2.00 is at about 80 percent and for the value of 2.25 is at about 12.5 percent. The "Desk's survey" series for the value of 1.75 is at about 2 percent, for the value of 2.00 is at about 90 percent and for the value of 2.25 is at about 6 percent respectively. * Derived from options on federal funds futures. Return to text ** Survey of primary dealer economists on July 28, 2008. Return to text Figure: Expected federal funds rates* A line chart shows two series, "June 19, 2008" and "July 31, 2008" from 2008:Q3 through 2010:Q4. Unit is percent. The "June 19, 2008" series begins at about 2.0 percent in 2008:Q3, and then generally increases to end at about 3.75 in 2010:Q3. The "July 31, 2008" series begins at about 2.0 percent in 2008:Q2, and generally increases to end at about 4.12 in 2010:Q3. * Estimates from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments. Return to text Figure: Implied distribution of federal funds rate six months ahead* A bar chart shows two series, "Recent: 7/30/2008", and "Last FOMC: 6/24/2008" from 0.25 to 5.25. Unit is percent. The estimated values for the "Recent: 7/30/2008" series are as follows: (0.25: 0.1), (0.5: 1), (0.75: 1), (1: 1.5), (1.25: 2), (1.5: 4.5), (1.75: 7), (2: 12), (2.25: 21), (2.5: 13), (2.75: 10.5), (3: 8), (3.25: 6) (3.5: 4), (3.75: 3), (4: 1), (4.25: 2), (4.5: 1), (4.75: 0), (5.0: 0), (5.25: 0.1), (5.5: 0.5) and (5.75: 0.75). The estimated values for the "Last FOMC: 6/24/2008" series are as follows: (0.25: 0), (0.5: 0), (0.75: 1), (1: 1.1), (1.25: 1.2 ), (1.5: 4), (1.75: 4.5), (2: 9.5), (2.25: 12.5), (2.5: 12), (2.75: 11.5), (3: 10.5), (3.25: 8) (3.5: 7), (3.75: 5.5), (4: 2.6), (4.25: 2.5), (4.5: 2), (4.75: 1), (5: 2), and (5.25: 1). * Derived from options on Eurodollar futures contracts, with term premium and other adjustments to estimate expectations for the federal funds rate. Return to text Figure: Implied volatilities A line chart shows two series, "Ten-Year Treasury (left scale)", and "6-Month Eurodollar (right scale)"* from 2004 through July 30, 2008. The left scale ranges from 2 to 16; unit is percent. The right scale ranges from about 30 to 250; unit is basis points. Data is daily. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Ten-Year Treasury" series begins at about 9 percent in 2004, generally decreases to about 3.5 in 2007, and generally increases to about 9.5 in early 2008. The series is at about 8 percent, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting and ends at about 7.5 on July 30, 2008. The "6-Month Eurodollar" series begins at about 110 basis points in 2004, fluctuates between about 45 and 150 through mid- 2007, and generally increases to about 240 in late 2007. It then fluctuates between about 110 and 215 through mid-2008, and is at about 175, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series decreases to end at about 145 on July 30, 2008. * Width of a 90 percent confidence interval computed from the term structures for the expected federal funds rate and implied volatility. Return to text Figure: Nominal Treasury yields* A line chart shows two series, "10-year", and "2-year" from 2006 through June 31, 2008. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Ten-year" series begins at about 4.5 percent, fluctuates between about 4.5 and 5.3 through 2007:Q2, decreases to about 3.5 in 2008:Q1, and increases to about 4.5, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then decreases briefly after the meeting to about 4 and then increases to end at about 4.2 percent on July 31, 2008. The "Two-year" series begins at about 4.5 percent, fluctuates between about 4.5 and 5.3 through 2007:Q2, decreases to about 1.5 in 2008:Q1, and increases to about 3, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then decreases briefly after the meeting to about 2.5 and ends at about the same on July 31, 2008. * Par yields from a smoothed nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve. Return to text Figure: Oil prices and inflation compensation* A line chart shows three series, "Spot WTI (left scale)", "Next 5 years (right scale)", and "5-to-10 year forward (right scale)" from 2006 through July 31, 2008. The left scale ranges from 40 to 160; unit is dollars per barrel. The right scale ranges from 1.5 to 4.0; unit is percent. Data is daily. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Spot WTI" series begins at about $60 per barrel in 2006, generally increases to about 75 in 2006:Q3, generally decreases to about 50 in 2007:Q1, and then generally increases to about 135 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It continues to increase briefly after the meeting to about 145 and then decreases to end at about 123 on July 31, 2008. The "Next five years" series begins at about 2.5 in 2006, generally increases to about 2.6 in 2006:Q3, generally decreases to about 2.25 in 2006:Q4, and fluctuates between about 2.0 and 2.4 through 2007. It then decreases to about 1.75 in 2008:Q1, and increases to about 2.5 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series increases to about 2.6 briefly after the meeting and then decreases to end at about 2.1 on July 31, 2008. The "Five-to-ten year forward" series begins at about 2.5 in 2006, generally increases to about 2.8 in 2006:Q2, it generally decreases to about 2.4 in 2007:Q2, and generally increases to about 3.2 in 2008:Q1. It then decreases to about 2.75, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, and increases briefly after the meeting to end at about 2.8 on July 31, 2008. * Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yield curves and adjusted for the indexation-lag (carry) effect. Return to text [Box:] Interpreting Movements in TIPS based Inflation Compensation Figure: Change in TIPS based Inflation Compensation since the June FOMC Meeting A bar chart shows "Change in TIPS based inflation compensation" from years 3 through years 9-10. Unit is basis points. The approximate values for the series are given as follows: Years 3: -58, Years 3-4: -17, Years 4-5: -2, years 5-6: 5, Years 6-7: 17, Years 7-8: 21, Years 8-9: 25, Years 9-10: 30. Figure: Change in Swaps based Inflation Compensation since the June FOMC Meeting A bar chart shows "Change in TIPS based inflation compensation" from years 3 through years 9-10. Unit is basis points. The approximate values for the series are given as follows: Years 3: -42, Years 3-4: -11, Years 4-5: -2, years 5-6: 8, Years 6-7: 9, Years 7-8: 8, Years 8-9: 7, Years 9-10: 5. Chart 3 Asset Market Developments Figure: Spreads of Libor over OIS A line chart shows two series, "1-month", and "3-month" from January 2007 through July 31, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "1-month" series begins at about 5 basis points in January 2007, stays about the same through July 2007, increases to about 95 in September 2007, and decreases to about 19 in October 2007. It increases to about 110 in December 2007, decreases to about 10 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 85, in April 2008. The series then decreases to about 45 around the time of the June 2008, FOMC meeting, and ends at about 43 on July 31, 2008. The "3-month" series begins at about 7 basis points in January 2007, stays about the same through July 2007, increases to about 95 in September 2007, and decreases to about 43 in October 2007. It increases to about 105 in December 2007, decreases to about 30 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 91, in April 2008. The series then decreases to about 70 around the time of the June 2008, FOMC meeting, and ends at about the same on July 31, 2008. Note. Libor quotes are taken at 6:00 am, and OIS quotes are observed at the close of business of the previous trading day. Figure: Equity prices A line chart shows two series, "Wilshire 5000", and "Dow Jones Financial", from 2002 through July 31, 2008. Data is daily; unit is an Index (12/31/2000=100). The "Wilshire 500" series begins at about 90 in 2002, decreases to about 60 in 2002:Q4, generally increases to about 129 in 2007:Q3 and Q4, and generally decreases to about 107 in 2008:Q1. The series is at about 100 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting and ends at about 107 on July 31, 2008. The "Dow Jones Financial" series begins at about 92 in 2002, decreases to about 65 in 2002:Q4, it generally increases to about 140 in 2007:Q1, and generally decreases to about 90 in 2008:Q1. It then generally decreases to about 80 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, and decreases to end at about 85 on July 31, 2008. Figure: Corporate bond spreads* A line chart shows two series, "10-Year BBB (left scale)", and "10-Year High-Yield (right scale)" from 2002 through July 31, 2008. The left scale ranges from 50 to 450 and the right scale ranges from 0 to 1000. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "10-Year BBB" series begins at about 201 basis points in 2002, generally increases to about 320 in 2002:Q4, and generally decreases to about 100 in 2005:Q1. It generally increases to about 305 in 2008:Q1, and decreases to about 260 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series then increases and ends at about 300 on July 31, 2008. The "10-Year High-Yield" series begins at about 550 basis points in 2002, it increases to about 600, shortly after, and then decreases to about 500 at the end of Q1. It then generally increases to about 825 in 2002:Q4, generally decreases to about 275 in 2005:Q1. It fluctuates between about 300 and 400 through 2007:Q2, and then generally increases to about 700 in 2008:Q1. The series decreases to about 550 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, and continues to decrease briefly after the meeting to end at about 550 on July 31, 2008. * Measured relative to an estimated off-the-run Treasury yield curve. Return to text Figure: Net percentage of banks tightening standards for business loans over the past three months A line chart shows two series, "Commercial real estate", and "C&I"*, from 1990 through 2008:Q3. Data is quarterly; unit is percent. The "Commercial real estate" series begins at about 70 percent in 1990, generally decreases to about -7.5 in 1994, increases to about 15 in 1996, and decreases to about -10 in 1997. It generally increases to about 45 in 2002, generally decreases to about -25 in 2005 and then generally increases to end at about 80 in 2008:Q3. The "C&I" series begins at about 57 percent in 1990, generally decreases to about -20 in 1994, generally increases to about 5 in 1996, and decreases to about 7.5 in 1997. It generally increases to about 60 in 2001, generally decreases to about -25 in 2005 and then generally increases to end at about 58 in 2008:Q3. * Loans to large and medium-sized firms. Return to text Figure: Pricing in the secondary market for leveraged loans A line chart shows two series, "Bid price (right scale)", and "Bid-ask spread (left scale)", from January 2007 through July 31, 2008. The right scale ranges from 88 to 104; unit is percent of par value. The left scale ranges from 50 to 300; unit is basis points. Data is daily. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Bid price" series begins at about 98 in January 2007, decreases to about 94.5 in August 2007, and generally decreases to about 85 in February and March of 2008. The series generally increases to about 89 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting and then decreases to end at about 87 on July 31, 2008. The "Bid-ask spread" series begins at about 60 in January 2007, increases to about 150 in August 2007, generally decreases to about 110 in October 2007, and generally increases to about 225 in February 2008. The series decreases to about 160 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting and then increases to end at about 170 on July 31, 2008. Source. LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Pricing. Figure: Residential mortgage rate spreads A line chart shows two series, "FRM", and "1-year ARM" from 2002 through 2008. Data is weekly; unit is basis points. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "FRM" series begins at about 200 basis points, decreases to about 155 in 2002:Q2, increases to about 230 in 2002:Q4, and fluctuates between about 150 and 200 through 2007. It then increases to about 225 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting and ends at about 250 on July 30, 2008. The "1-year ARM" series begins at about 300 in 2002, generally decreases to about 50 by early 2007, generally increases to about 375 in 2008:Q1, and then generally decreases to about 260 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series increases to end at about 300 on July 30, 2008. Note. FRM spread relative to 10-year Treasury. ARM spread relative to 1-year Treasury. Last weekly observation is for July 30, 2008. Source. Freddie Mac. Chart 4 International Financial Indicators Figure: Nominal trade-weighted dollar indexes Daily Index(12/31/04=100) Date Broad Major Currencies Other Important Trading Partners 3 January 2005 100.33 100.44 100.20 4 January 2005 101.17 101.77 100.53 5 January 2005 101.17 101.66 100.64 6 January 2005 101.80 102.57 100.97 7 January 2005 101.88 102.89 100.79 10 January 2005 101.45 102.23 100.61 11 January 2005 101.12 101.74 100.44 12 January 2005 100.45 100.68 100.19 13 January 2005 100.63 101.06 100.15 14 January 2005 101.18 101.94 100.37 18 January 2005 101.30 102.17 100.36 19 January 2005 101.33 102.32 100.26 20 January 2005 101.68 102.88 100.39 21 January 2005 101.28 102.17 100.33 24 January 2005 101.28 102.28 100.21 25 January 2005 101.87 103.22 100.42 26 January 2005 101.31 102.29 100.26 27 January 2005 101.52 102.62 100.33 28 January 2005 101.55 102.84 100.17 31 January 2005 101.43 102.74 100.02 1 February 2005 101.53 102.97 99.99 2 February 2005 101.52 102.98 99.95 3 February 2005 101.65 103.32 99.88 4 February 2005 101.65 103.42 99.77 7 February 2005 102.22 104.39 99.93 8 February 2005 102.32 104.33 100.19 9 February 2005 102.33 104.40 100.13 10 February 2005 101.96 103.72 100.08 11 February 2005 101.91 103.74 99.98 14 February 2005 101.43 102.98 99.78 15 February 2005 101.37 102.88 99.76 16 February 2005 101.65 103.35 99.85 17 February 2005 101.24 102.65 99.73 18 February 2005 101.19 102.68 99.59 22 February 2005 100.62 101.86 99.30 23 February 2005 100.92 102.37 99.38 24 February 2005 101.07 102.53 99.51 25 February 2005 101.03 102.43 99.54 28 February 2005 100.54 101.65 99.35 1 March 2005 100.92 102.31 99.44 2 March 2005 101.07 102.54 99.50 3 March 2005 101.31 102.77 99.75 4 March 2005 100.76 101.87 99.58 7 March 2005 100.85 102.11 99.50 8 March 2005 100.32 101.13 99.46 9 March 2005 100.11 100.68 99.49 10 March 2005 100.10 100.62 99.53 11 March 2005 99.91 100.38 99.40 14 March 2005 100.49 101.13 99.79 15 March 2005 100.57 101.06 100.04 16 March 2005 100.25 100.52 99.95 17 March 2005 100.36 100.73 99.95 18 March 2005 100.45 100.97 99.88 21 March 2005 100.99 101.82 100.09 22 March 2005 100.74 101.39 100.02 23 March 2005 101.49 102.65 100.25 24 March 2005 101.70 102.94 100.37 25 March 2005 101.76 103.06 100.38 28 March 2005 102.17 103.62 100.63 29 March 2005 101.96 103.24 100.60 30 March 2005 101.82 103.15 100.40 31 March 2005 101.55 102.84 100.17 1 April 2005 101.79 103.33 100.15 4 April 2005 102.11 103.83 100.30 5 April 2005 102.09 103.80 100.27 6 April 2005 102.06 103.81 100.22 7 April 2005 101.89 103.62 100.06 8 April 2005 101.87 103.65 99.99 11 April 2005 101.74 103.54 99.84 12 April 2005 102.13 104.18 99.97 13 April 2005 101.74 103.70 99.68 14 April 2005 102.25 104.40 99.97 15 April 2005 102.00 103.91 99.97 18 April 2005 101.92 103.64 100.09 19 April 2005 101.64 103.32 99.86 20 April 2005 101.43 103.05 99.71 21 April 2005 101.42 103.05 99.70 22 April 2005 101.24 102.80 99.59 25 April 2005 101.39 103.11 99.56 26 April 2005 101.63 103.52 99.62 27 April 2005 101.68 103.60 99.65 28 April 2005 101.79 103.75 99.71 29 April 2005 101.65 103.64 99.55 2 May 2005 101.78 103.96 99.47 3 May 2005 101.73 103.89 99.44 4 May 2005 101.42 103.51 99.21 5 May 2005 101.26 103.28 99.13 6 May 2005 101.50 103.72 99.15 9 May 2005 101.53 103.72 99.23 10 May 2005 101.51 103.60 99.32 11 May 2005 101.80 104.18 99.30 12 May 2005 102.11 104.77 99.32 13 May 2005 102.51 105.48 99.40 16 May 2005 102.76 105.82 99.56 17 May 2005 102.62 105.66 99.43 18 May 2005 102.47 105.47 99.33 19 May 2005 102.55 105.68 99.28 20 May 2005 102.86 106.13 99.44 23 May 2005 102.64 105.81 99.33 24 May 2005 102.64 105.80 99.33 25 May 2005 102.61 105.87 99.21 26 May 2005 102.92 106.36 99.33 27 May 2005 102.58 105.91 99.11 31 May 2005 102.92 106.43 99.28 1 June 2005 103.18 106.87 99.35 2 June 2005 103.05 106.71 99.25 3 June 2005 103.06 106.80 99.18 6 June 2005 102.91 106.30 99.38 7 June 2005 102.83 106.22 99.30 8 June 2005 102.71 106.04 99.24 9 June 2005 103.24 106.88 99.45 10 June 2005 103.43 107.27 99.46 13 June 2005 103.92 108.11 99.59 14 June 2005 103.79 107.95 99.50 15 June 2005 103.38 107.19 99.42 16 June 2005 103.29 107.14 99.30 17 June 2005 102.88 106.46 99.16 20 June 2005 103.16 106.84 99.35 21 June 2005 103.00 106.66 99.20 22 June 2005 103.09 106.88 99.15 23 June 2005 103.23 107.07 99.25 24 June 2005 103.22 107.07 99.22 27 June 2005 103.13 106.81 99.31 28 June 2005 103.42 107.23 99.48 29 June 2005 103.37 107.15 99.44 30 June 2005 103.51 107.34 99.53 1 July 2005 104.08 108.58 99.45 5 July 2005 104.37 108.86 99.74 6 July 2005 104.32 108.73 99.78 7 July 2005 104.30 108.56 99.90 8 July 2005 104.16 108.38 99.81 11 July 2005 103.55 107.46 99.50 12 July 2005 103.00 106.53 99.33 13 July 2005 103.45 107.31 99.46 14 July 2005 103.34 107.29 99.26 15 July 2005 103.66 107.92 99.26 18 July 2005 103.38 107.50 99.11 19 July 2005 103.84 108.20 99.34 20 July 2005 103.91 108.24 99.44 21 July 2005 103.22 107.25 99.04 22 July 2005 103.00 107.49 98.38 25 July 2005 103.20 107.70 98.57 26 July 2005 103.59 108.31 98.75 27 July 2005 103.54 108.31 98.65 28 July 2005 103.32 107.99 98.51 29 July 2005 103.10 107.67 98.40 1 August 2005 102.74 107.01 98.33 2 August 2005 102.53 106.74 98.17 3 August 2005 102.21 106.23 98.05 4 August 2005 102.07 106.06 97.94 5 August 2005 102.38 106.64 97.99 8 August 2005 102.24 106.29 98.06 9 August 2005 102.35 106.42 98.14 10 August 2005 102.04 106.05 97.90 11 August 2005 101.69 105.25 97.98 12 August 2005 101.62 104.95 98.15 15 August 2005 101.74 105.24 98.09 16 August 2005 101.78 105.34 98.09 17 August 2005 102.08 105.84 98.18 18 August 2005 102.67 106.77 98.43 19 August 2005 102.93 106.86 98.86 22 August 2005 102.39 106.02 98.62 23 August 2005 102.44 105.96 98.79 24 August 2005 102.57 105.90 99.10 25 August 2005 102.19 105.32 98.93 26 August 2005 102.30 105.44 99.03 29 August 2005 102.66 105.91 99.28 30 August 2005 102.76 106.20 99.18 31 August 2005 102.31 105.48 99.00 1 September 2005 101.80 104.70 98.76 2 September 2005 101.46 104.30 98.49 6 September 2005 101.55 104.44 98.52 7 September 2005 101.68 104.62 98.60 8 September 2005 101.73 104.73 98.59 9 September 2005 101.47 104.26 98.55 12 September 2005 101.91 105.16 98.53 13 September 2005 102.06 105.29 98.70 14 September 2005 102.04 105.16 98.80 15 September 2005 102.23 105.64 98.68 16 September 2005 102.32 105.73 98.78 19 September 2005 102.27 105.52 98.88 20 September 2005 102.25 105.51 98.86 21 September 2005 102.08 105.28 98.74 22 September 2005 102.31 105.60 98.89 23 September 2005 102.63 106.17 98.95 26 September 2005 102.86 106.54 99.03 27 September 2005 103.03 106.86 99.06 28 September 2005 103.00 106.85 99.00 29 September 2005 102.82 106.64 98.86 30 September 2005 102.53 106.13 98.79 3 October 2005 102.98 106.99 98.83 4 October 2005 103.01 107.17 98.70 5 October 2005 102.93 107.03 98.70 6 October 2005 102.74 106.52 98.82 7 October 2005 102.71 106.50 98.79 11 October 2005 103.00 107.00 98.87 12 October 2005 102.99 106.77 99.06 13 October 2005 103.59 107.68 99.35 14 October 2005 103.16 106.99 99.19 17 October 2005 103.19 107.18 99.07 18 October 2005 103.50 107.72 99.14 19 October 2005 103.39 107.35 99.29 20 October 2005 103.31 107.27 99.20 21 October 2005 103.64 107.70 99.45 24 October 2005 103.49 107.54 99.30 25 October 2005 102.98 106.68 99.13 26 October 2005 103.07 106.79 99.22 27 October 2005 102.87 106.38 99.21 28 October 2005 103.06 106.91 99.07 31 October 2005 103.33 107.52 98.99 1 November 2005 103.30 107.52 98.95 2 November 2005 103.18 107.36 98.86 3 November 2005 103.39 107.83 98.82 4 November 2005 103.86 108.63 98.95 7 November 2005 103.96 108.92 98.87 8 November 2005 103.96 108.87 98.93 9 November 2005 103.93 108.96 98.78 10 November 2005 104.02 109.12 98.79 14 November 2005 104.33 109.84 98.71 15 November 2005 104.21 109.69 98.62 16 November 2005 104.30 109.86 98.64 17 November 2005 104.12 109.49 98.63 18 November 2005 104.21 109.59 98.72 21 November 2005 104.04 109.29 98.67 22 November 2005 104.06 109.18 98.82 23 November 2005 103.69 108.68 98.57 25 November 2005 103.88 109.03 98.61 28 November 2005 103.56 108.53 98.46 29 November 2005 103.60 108.70 98.38 30 November 2005 103.59 108.65 98.40 1 December 2005 103.80 109.16 98.32 2 December 2005 103.65 108.98 98.20 5 December 2005 103.39 108.43 98.23 6 December 2005 103.24 108.40 97.97 7 December 2005 103.49 108.75 98.10 8 December 2005 103.22 108.13 98.19 9 December 2005 103.39 108.20 98.46 12 December 2005 102.93 107.26 98.46 13 December 2005 103.01 107.52 98.36 14 December 2005 102.58 106.56 98.45 15 December 2005 102.80 107.02 98.44 16 December 2005 102.69 106.66 98.59 19 December 2005 102.85 107.00 98.56 20 December 2005 103.35 108.07 98.50 21 December 2005 103.35 108.21 98.37 22 December 2005 103.14 107.77 98.38 23 December 2005 103.17 107.85 98.36 27 December 2005 103.46 108.23 98.56 28 December 2005 103.34 107.98 98.57 29 December 2005 103.29 108.11 98.34 30 December 2005 103.26 108.20 98.20 3 January 2006 102.62 107.04 98.08 4 January 2006 102.11 106.37 97.72 5 January 2006 102.16 106.58 97.60 6 January 2006 101.89 106.16 97.48 9 January 2006 102.01 106.64 97.25 10 January 2006 101.97 106.47 97.34 11 January 2006 101.71 105.95 97.34 12 January 2006 101.88 106.50 97.13 13 January 2006 101.81 106.20 97.29 17 January 2006 102.10 106.68 97.39 18 January 2006 102.25 106.83 97.54 19 January 2006 102.03 106.52 97.41 20 January 2006 101.76 106.19 97.20 23 January 2006 101.26 105.29 97.09 24 January 2006 101.22 105.32 96.98 25 January 2006 101.23 105.44 96.88 26 January 2006 101.35 105.69 96.87 27 January 2006 101.51 106.13 96.76 30 January 2006 101.58 106.29 96.75 31 January 2006 101.30 105.84 96.64 1 February 2006 101.49 106.15 96.72 2 February 2006 101.68 106.27 96.95 3 February 2006 101.98 106.88 96.94 6 February 2006 101.97 107.13 96.69 7 February 2006 102.00 107.07 96.81 8 February 2006 102.30 107.48 97.00 9 February 2006 102.04 107.14 96.83 10 February 2006 102.12 107.36 96.76 13 February 2006 102.19 107.45 96.82 14 February 2006 102.18 107.50 96.75 15 February 2006 102.23 107.57 96.79 16 February 2006 102.29 107.73 96.75 17 February 2006 102.14 107.54 96.63 21 February 2006 102.05 107.39 96.60 22 February 2006 102.20 107.43 96.85 23 February 2006 101.99 107.15 96.72 24 February 2006 102.04 107.34 96.64 27 February 2006 101.86 107.00 96.61 28 February 2006 101.58 106.54 96.50 1 March 2006 101.64 106.70 96.46 2 March 2006 101.40 106.17 96.51 3 March 2006 101.51 106.22 96.67 6 March 2006 101.78 106.65 96.79 7 March 2006 102.34 107.39 97.17 8 March 2006 102.62 107.64 97.47 9 March 2006 102.53 107.67 97.28 10 March 2006 102.70 108.08 97.21 13 March 2006 102.60 107.88 97.22 14 March 2006 102.08 107.00 97.03 15 March 2006 101.97 106.94 96.88 16 March 2006 101.68 106.48 96.76 17 March 2006 101.61 106.26 96.83 20 March 2006 101.78 106.56 96.87 21 March 2006 102.19 107.18 97.08 22 March 2006 102.21 107.02 97.26 23 March 2006 102.52 107.66 97.27 24 March 2006 102.49 107.50 97.35 27 March 2006 102.53 107.43 97.49 28 March 2006 102.50 107.33 97.55 29 March 2006 102.74 107.77 97.58 30 March 2006 102.28 107.00 97.44 31 March 2006 102.25 107.14 97.24 3 April 2006 102.31 107.39 97.11 4 April 2006 101.83 106.60 96.94 5 April 2006 101.77 106.45 96.96 6 April 2006 101.83 106.38 97.16 7 April 2006 102.08 106.70 97.32 10 April 2006 102.08 106.83 97.19 11 April 2006 101.97 106.62 97.19 12 April 2006 102.04 106.71 97.25 13 April 2006 102.16 106.79 97.39 14 April 2006 102.14 106.84 97.32 17 April 2006 101.57 105.81 97.21 18 April 2006 101.39 105.68 96.98 19 April 2006 101.08 105.16 96.87 20 April 2006 101.21 105.35 96.94 21 April 2006 101.15 105.14 97.02 24 April 2006 100.81 104.70 96.79 25 April 2006 100.68 104.37 96.84 26 April 2006 100.60 104.02 97.05 27 April 2006 100.24 103.53 96.82 28 April 2006 99.89 102.94 96.71 1 May 2006 99.68 102.61 96.61 2 May 2006 99.45 102.30 96.46 3 May 2006 99.35 102.30 96.27 4 May 2006 99.29 102.12 96.33 5 May 2006 99.07 101.77 96.23 8 May 2006 98.98 101.80 96.02 9 May 2006 98.76 101.36 96.04 10 May 2006 98.46 101.02 95.77 11 May 2006 98.38 100.66 95.99 12 May 2006 98.71 100.85 96.45 15 May 2006 99.18 101.23 97.02 16 May 2006 99.03 101.15 96.80 17 May 2006 99.28 101.55 96.89 18 May 2006 99.52 101.60 97.33 19 May 2006 99.75 102.03 97.34 22 May 2006 99.79 101.55 97.92 23 May 2006 99.54 101.48 97.50 24 May 2006 100.23 102.25 98.10 25 May 2006 99.71 101.52 97.79 26 May 2006 99.75 101.83 97.55 30 May 2006 99.46 100.99 97.83 31 May 2006 99.62 101.28 97.86 1 June 2006 99.62 101.31 97.84 2 June 2006 99.41 100.82 97.91 5 June 2006 99.22 100.73 97.60 6 June 2006 99.96 101.90 97.90 7 June 2006 99.99 101.92 97.95 8 June 2006 100.72 102.95 98.37 9 June 2006 100.36 102.43 98.18 12 June 2006 100.38 102.39 98.26 13 June 2006 100.74 102.88 98.49 14 June 2006 100.65 102.75 98.44 15 June 2006 100.69 103.01 98.25 16 June 2006 100.70 103.14 98.14 19 June 2006 100.93 103.39 98.34 20 June 2006 100.80 103.16 98.31 21 June 2006 100.37 102.42 98.19 22 June 2006 100.86 103.36 98.23 23 June 2006 101.19 103.86 98.38 26 June 2006 101.13 103.79 98.34 27 June 2006 100.99 103.54 98.31 28 June 2006 101.15 103.89 98.28 29 June 2006 100.99 103.61 98.23 30 June 2006 100.04 102.32 97.64 3 July 2006 99.84 102.27 97.29 5 July 2006 100.11 102.65 97.44 6 July 2006 99.95 102.44 97.33 7 July 2006 99.57 102.00 97.02 10 July 2006 99.78 102.61 96.81 11 July 2006 100.00 102.88 96.99 12 July 2006 100.30 103.32 97.14 13 July 2006 100.35 103.30 97.27 14 July 2006 100.49 103.43 97.42 17 July 2006 100.88 104.16 97.46 18 July 2006 100.94 104.34 97.41 19 July 2006 100.74 104.08 97.27 20 July 2006 100.42 103.69 97.02 21 July 2006 100.34 103.50 97.04 24 July 2006 100.58 103.90 97.13 25 July 2006 100.74 104.23 97.11 26 July 2006 100.55 103.82 97.14 27 July 2006 100.05 103.09 96.87 28 July 2006 99.88 102.75 96.88 31 July 2006 99.82 102.66 96.85 1 August 2006 99.99 102.71 97.14 2 August 2006 99.78 102.39 97.05 3 August 2006 99.92 102.57 97.14 4 August 2006 99.48 101.92 96.91 7 August 2006 99.40 101.85 96.81 8 August 2006 99.53 102.05 96.89 9 August 2006 99.33 101.88 96.66 10 August 2006 99.74 102.62 96.72 11 August 2006 99.66 102.55 96.64 14 August 2006 99.85 102.83 96.74 15 August 2006 99.69 102.49 96.76 16 August 2006 99.29 101.97 96.48 17 August 2006 99.24 101.96 96.38 18 August 2006 99.61 102.51 96.59 21 August 2006 99.27 101.95 96.46 22 August 2006 99.49 102.37 96.47 23 August 2006 99.46 102.19 96.59 24 August 2006 99.67 102.33 96.88 25 August 2006 99.77 102.40 97.00 28 August 2006 99.73 102.40 96.93 29 August 2006 99.65 102.40 96.78 30 August 2006 99.48 102.14 96.68 31 August 2006 99.54 102.21 96.74 1 September 2006 99.41 102.03 96.67 5 September 2006 99.31 102.11 96.38 6 September 2006 99.48 102.20 96.62 7 September 2006 99.65 102.41 96.76 8 September 2006 100.03 103.10 96.83 11 September 2006 100.20 103.21 97.06 12 September 2006 100.11 103.12 96.97 13 September 2006 100.01 103.02 96.87 99.86 102.78 96.80 15 September 2006 100.04 14 September 2006 103.25 96.70 18 September 2006 103.15 96.67 99.98 19 September 2006 100.01 103.19 96.68 20 September 2006 99.99 103.18 96.66 21 September 2006 99.78 102.78 96.66 22 September 2006 99.71 102.41 96.88 25 September 2006 99.84 102.55 96.99 26 September 2006 99.90 102.86 96.80 27 September 2006 99.85 102.90 96.66 28 September 2006 99.87 102.89 96.70 29 September 2006 99.93 103.11 96.63 2 October 2006 99.77 102.82 96.58 3 October 2006 99.95 103.07 96.70 4 October 2006 100.18 103.47 96.75 5 October 2006 100.09 103.39 96.65 6 October 2006 100.37 103.86 96.73 10 October 2006 100.70 104.43 96.83 11 October 2006 100.71 104.49 96.79 12 October 2006 100.63 104.51 96.62 13 October 2006 100.60 104.71 96.35 16 October 2006 100.51 104.57 96.32 17 October 2006 100.34 104.24 96.30 18 October 2006 100.42 104.49 96.21 19 October 2006 100.12 103.91 96.19 20 October 2006 100.00 103.65 96.22 23 October 2006 100.27 104.12 96.28 24 October 2006 100.18 103.99 96.23 25 October 2006 100.04 103.81 96.14 26 October 2006 99.73 103.44 95.89 27 October 2006 99.34 102.83 95.72 30 October 2006 99.40 102.93 95.74 31 October 2006 99.23 102.60 95.73 1 November 2006 99.32 102.88 95.63 2 November 2006 99.46 103.01 95.78 3 November 2006 99.53 103.24 95.69 6 November 2006 99.62 103.29 95.82 7 November 2006 99.27 102.72 95.68 8 November 2006 99.39 102.90 95.74 9 November 2006 99.32 102.77 95.72 10 November 2006 99.27 102.64 95.75 13 November 2006 99.58 103.17 95.84 14 November 2006 99.53 103.17 95.75 15 November 2006 99.62 103.27 95.84 16 November 2006 99.60 103.29 95.77 17 November 2006 99.75 103.33 96.05 20 November 2006 99.79 103.46 95.99 21 November 2006 99.79 103.39 96.05 22 November 2006 99.32 102.56 95.95 24 November 2006 98.86 101.69 95.91 27 November 2006 98.80 101.54 95.93 28 November 2006 98.66 101.31 95.89 29 November 2006 98.66 101.51 95.69 30 November 2006 98.39 101.09 95.56 1 December 2006 98.27 100.93 95.49 4 December 2006 98.24 100.94 95.42 5 December 2006 98.02 100.79 95.11 6 December 2006 98.08 101.04 94.99 7 December 2006 98.10 101.14 94.94 8 December 2006 98.39 101.65 95.00 11 December 2006 98.47 101.70 95.10 12 December 2006 98.50 101.83 95.03 13 December 2006 98.52 101.93 94.98 14 December 2006 98.58 102.16 94.87 15 December 2006 98.77 102.51 94.89 18 December 2006 98.93 102.67 95.06 19 December 2006 98.74 102.12 95.22 20 December 2006 98.59 102.02 95.02 21 December 2006 98.71 102.18 95.11 22 December 2006 98.90 102.55 95.11 26 December 2006 98.96 102.62 95.16 27 December 2006 98.98 102.67 95.16 28 December 2006 98.84 102.53 95.02 29 December 2006 98.81 102.59 94.90 2 January 2007 98.53 102.18 94.74 3 January 2007 98.89 102.93 94.71 4 January 2007 99.27 103.35 95.05 5 January 2007 99.48 103.58 95.25 8 January 2007 99.50 103.52 95.35 9 January 2007 99.68 103.78 95.44 10 January 2007 99.80 103.97 95.50 11 January 2007 99.81 104.14 95.35 12 January 2007 99.66 103.82 95.37 16 January 2007 99.72 103.99 95.31 17 January 2007 99.50 103.79 95.08 18 January 2007 99.58 103.99 95.04 19 January 2007 99.45 103.78 94.98 22 January 2007 99.59 103.97 95.08 23 January 2007 99.57 103.85 95.17 24 January 2007 99.63 104.06 95.08 25 January 2007 99.56 103.92 95.07 26 January 2007 99.85 104.35 95.23 29 January 2007 99.92 104.32 95.38 30 January 2007 99.87 104.27 95.34 31 January 2007 99.69 103.96 95.28 1 February 2007 99.44 103.69 95.06 2 February 2007 99.69 104.18 95.07 5 February 2007 99.58 104.13 94.90 6 February 2007 99.45 103.97 94.79 7 February 2007 99.44 103.95 94.80 8 February 2007 99.52 104.05 94.87 9 February 2007 99.42 103.93 94.78 12 February 2007 99.64 104.15 95.01 13 February 2007 99.42 103.72 95.00 14 February 2007 99.02 103.16 94.75 15 February 2007 98.88 102.92 94.70 16 February 2007 98.87 102.88 94.73 20 February 2007 99.04 103.18 94.77 21 February 2007 99.01 103.11 94.78 22 February 2007 99.01 103.13 94.76 23 February 2007 98.92 102.88 94.84 26 February 2007 98.97 102.88 94.93 27 February 2007 98.81 102.36 95.13 28 February 2007 98.95 102.56 95.21 1 March 2007 99.03 102.66 95.26 2 March 2007 99.05 102.69 95.27 5 March 2007 99.31 103.12 95.36 6 March 2007 99.16 102.99 95.19 7 March 2007 99.10 102.90 95.17 8 March 2007 99.22 103.19 95.13 9 March 2007 99.12 103.08 95.03 12 March 2007 98.97 102.71 95.10 13 March 2007 98.89 102.54 95.10 14 March 2007 98.94 102.53 95.20 15 March 2007 98.92 102.60 95.12 16 March 2007 98.72 102.25 95.06 19 March 2007 98.80 102.42 95.04 20 March 2007 98.51 102.03 94.85 21 March 2007 98.33 101.90 94.63 22 March 2007 98.11 101.67 94.41 23 March 2007 98.28 101.94 94.48 26 March 2007 98.28 101.89 94.53 27 March 2007 98.18 101.72 94.51 28 March 2007 98.20 101.66 94.61 29 March 2007 98.22 101.78 94.54 30 March 2007 98.05 101.47 94.50 2 April 2007 98.06 101.51 94.48 3 April 2007 98.13 101.79 94.33 4 April 2007 98.11 101.78 94.30 5 April 2007 97.87 101.40 94.21 6 April 2007 98.00 101.68 94.19 9 April 2007 98.04 101.77 94.17 10 April 2007 97.88 101.33 94.30 11 April 2007 97.80 101.27 94.20 12 April 2007 97.58 100.83 94.20 13 April 2007 97.50 100.79 94.08 16 April 2007 97.38 100.54 94.09 17 April 2007 97.21 100.22 94.06 18 April 2007 97.12 100.09 94.03 19 April 2007 97.08 100.01 94.02 20 April 2007 96.99 99.92 93.93 23 April 2007 97.01 99.94 93.94 24 April 2007 97.00 99.85 94.03 25 April 2007 96.70 99.53 93.74 26 April 2007 97.01 100.07 93.82 27 April 2007 96.87 99.80 93.82 30 April 2007 96.71 99.43 93.86 1 May 2007 96.87 99.72 93.88 2 May 2007 96.89 99.81 93.84 3 May 2007 96.87 99.91 93.71 4 May 2007 96.77 99.81 93.60 7 May 2007 96.55 99.55 93.42 8 May 2007 96.71 99.87 93.42 9 May 2007 96.64 99.82 93.33 10 May 2007 96.79 100.09 93.35 11 May 2007 96.84 100.23 93.32 14 May 2007 96.67 100.00 93.22 15 May 2007 96.43 99.51 93.21 16 May 2007 96.66 100.04 93.15 17 May 2007 96.69 100.09 93.16 18 May 2007 96.52 99.72 93.18 21 May 2007 96.55 99.90 93.07 22 May 2007 96.43 99.82 92.91 23 May 2007 96.33 99.61 92.91 24 May 2007 96.56 99.84 93.14 25 May 2007 96.37 99.69 92.91 29 May 2007 96.24 99.41 92.93 30 May 2007 96.41 99.68 93.01 31 May 2007 96.21 99.44 92.85 1 June 2007 96.03 99.22 92.71 4 June 2007 95.90 98.90 92.77 5 June 2007 95.90 98.81 92.86 6 June 2007 96.03 98.79 93.13 7 June 2007 96.24 99.05 93.30 8 June 2007 96.63 99.48 93.66 11 June 2007 96.54 99.47 93.47 12 June 2007 96.57 99.62 93.39 13 June 2007 96.76 99.91 93.48 14 June 2007 96.77 100.04 93.37 15 June 2007 96.50 99.91 92.97 18 June 2007 96.43 99.92 92.80 19 June 2007 96.22 99.55 92.75 20 June 2007 96.25 99.52 92.86 21 June 2007 96.49 99.85 93.00 22 June 2007 96.34 99.61 92.95 25 June 2007 96.41 99.65 93.03 26 June 2007 96.36 99.48 93.12 27 June 2007 96.44 99.54 93.21 28 June 2007 96.14 99.20 92.94 29 June 2007 96.04 99.11 92.84 2 July 2007 95.55 98.33 92.64 3 July 2007 95.60 98.51 92.57 5 July 2007 95.67 98.56 92.64 6 July 2007 95.50 98.27 92.59 9 July 2007 95.48 98.27 92.57 10 July 2007 95.25 97.92 92.45 11 July 2007 95.21 97.87 92.42 12 July 2007 95.04 97.61 92.35 13 July 2007 94.93 97.50 92.23 16 July 2007 94.82 97.33 92.19 17 July 2007 94.84 97.39 92.16 18 July 2007 94.73 97.20 92.14 19 July 2007 94.66 97.21 91.99 20 July 2007 94.64 97.04 92.12 23 July 2007 94.57 97.12 91.89 24 July 2007 94.42 96.75 91.97 25 July 2007 94.81 97.23 92.28 26 July 2007 94.99 97.25 92.61 27 July 2007 95.38 97.76 92.88 30 July 2007 95.42 97.97 92.74 31 July 2007 95.28 97.83 92.61 1 August 2007 95.26 97.62 92.78 2 August 2007 95.17 97.55 92.67 3 August 2007 94.98 97.12 92.73 6 August 2007 94.98 97.05 92.79 7 August 2007 95.18 97.41 92.83 8 August 2007 95.00 97.19 92.69 9 August 2007 95.31 97.58 92.93 10 August 2007 95.40 97.48 93.21 13 August 2007 95.47 97.70 93.14 14 August 2007 95.88 98.22 93.43 15 August 2007 96.31 98.76 93.75 16 August 2007 96.70 98.64 94.65 17 August 2007 96.12 97.97 94.17 20 August 2007 96.02 97.95 93.98 21 August 2007 96.08 97.98 94.07 22 August 2007 95.92 97.93 93.81 23 August 2007 95.82 97.76 93.78 24 August 2007 95.55 97.40 93.60 27 August 2007 95.47 97.33 93.50 28 August 2007 95.66 97.52 93.70 29 August 2007 95.57 97.40 93.63 30 August 2007 95.57 97.46 93.58 31 August 2007 95.52 97.48 93.44 3 September 2007 95.52 97.48 93.45 4 September 2007 95.50 97.43 93.45 5 September 2007 95.40 97.09 93.60 6 September 2007 95.30 97.09 93.40 7 September 2007 95.14 96.62 93.55 10 September 2007 95.07 96.51 93.55 11 September 2007 94.78 96.15 93.32 12 September 2007 94.50 95.81 93.10 13 September 2007 94.48 95.91 92.96 14 September 2007 94.55 95.99 93.02 17 September 2007 94.65 96.02 93.19 18 September 2007 94.51 95.88 93.06 19 September 2007 94.03 95.42 92.55 20 September 2007 93.30 94.23 92.30 21 September 2007 93.39 94.45 92.26 24 September 2007 93.30 94.32 92.21 25 September 2007 93.24 94.14 92.28 26 September 2007 93.34 94.45 92.16 27 September 2007 93.26 94.36 92.08 28 September 2007 92.86 93.73 91.92 1 October 2007 92.81 93.71 91.84 2 October 2007 93.03 94.13 91.86 3 October 2007 93.03 94.22 91.75 4 October 2007 93.09 94.26 91.84 5 October 2007 92.68 93.68 91.62 8 October 2007 92.69 93.68 91.64 9 October 2007 92.80 94.01 91.52 10 October 2007 92.66 93.72 91.52 11 October 2007 92.44 93.44 91.37 12 October 2007 92.54 93.54 91.47 15 October 2007 92.50 93.43 91.49 16 October 2007 92.65 93.60 91.63 17 October 2007 92.47 93.32 91.54 18 October 2007 92.26 92.92 91.54 19 October 2007 92.05 92.62 91.44 22 October 2007 92.58 93.43 91.67 23 October 2007 92.13 92.69 91.53 24 October 2007 92.16 92.72 91.54 25 October 2007 91.92 92.46 91.35 26 October 2007 91.60 92.02 91.15 29 October 2007 91.38 91.82 90.89 30 October 2007 91.29 91.72 90.83 31 October 2007 91.12 91.52 90.69 1 November 2007 91.15 91.55 90.72 2 November 2007 90.90 91.00 90.79 5 November 2007 90.89 90.93 90.85 6 November 2007 90.52 90.38 90.65 7 November 2007 90.10 89.60 90.63 8 November 2007 90.27 89.86 90.71 9 November 2007 90.43 90.01 90.87 13 November 2007 91.02 90.97 91.07 14 November 2007 90.90 90.89 90.90 15 November 2007 91.35 91.52 91.15 16 November 2007 91.23 91.30 91.15 19 November 2007 91.42 91.49 91.33 20 November 2007 91.18 91.14 91.21 21 November 2007 91.24 91.01 91.48 22 November 2007 91.23 91.01 91.46 23 November 2007 91.12 90.93 91.32 26 November 2007 91.04 90.76 91.33 27 November 2007 91.30 91.24 91.36 28 November 2007 91.33 91.48 91.16 29 November 2007 91.26 91.45 91.04 30 November 2007 91.49 92.07 90.86 3 December 2007 91.52 92.01 90.99 4 December 2007 91.53 92.00 91.03 5 December 2007 91.72 92.59 90.78 6 December 2007 91.77 92.68 90.80 7 December 2007 91.59 92.49 90.64 10 December 2007 91.54 92.44 90.58 11 December 2007 91.57 92.53 90.53 12 December 2007 91.60 92.59 90.54 13 December 2007 91.97 93.23 90.62 14 December 2007 92.27 93.65 90.79 17 December 2007 92.38 93.62 91.06 18 December 2007 92.40 93.68 91.04 19 December 2007 92.45 93.79 91.03 20 December 2007 92.30 93.51 91.01 21 December 2007 92.21 93.50 90.84 24 December 2007 92.03 93.26 90.72 26 December 2007 91.78 92.83 90.66 27 December 2007 91.54 92.46 90.56 28 December 2007 91.26 91.92 90.55 31 December 2007 91.43 92.33 90.48 2 January 2008 91.15 91.80 90.45 3 January 2008 91.02 91.75 90.23 4 January 2008 91.02 91.69 90.30 7 January 2008 91.33 92.27 90.33 8 January 2008 91.11 91.99 90.17 9 January 2008 91.42 92.50 90.28 10 January 2008 91.38 92.43 90.25 11 January 2008 91.28 92.43 90.06 14 January 2008 91.03 92.09 89.91 15 January 2008 90.90 91.86 89.87 16 January 2008 91.39 92.61 90.10 17 January 2008 91.38 92.55 90.13 18 January 2008 91.62 92.81 90.35 22 January 2008 91.57 92.69 90.37 23 January 2008 91.62 92.67 90.50 24 January 2008 90.96 91.75 90.12 25 January 2008 90.97 91.91 89.97 28 January 2008 90.72 91.49 89.90 29 January 2008 90.60 91.41 89.73 30 January 2008 90.52 91.27 89.73 31 January 2008 90.43 91.26 89.54 1 February 2008 90.25 91.00 89.44 4 February 2008 90.25 91.03 89.41 5 February 2008 90.80 91.95 89.58 6 February 2008 90.72 91.84 89.52 7 February 2008 91.12 92.58 89.56 8 February 2008 90.93 92.25 89.53 11 February 2008 90.93 92.19 89.60 12 February 2008 90.70 91.87 89.45 13 February 2008 90.89 92.16 89.53 14 February 2008 90.67 91.83 89.43 15 February 2008 90.64 91.84 89.37 19 February 2008 90.69 92.10 89.19 20 February 2008 90.96 92.51 89.32 21 February 2008 90.45 91.69 89.14 22 February 2008 90.44 91.74 89.04 25 February 2008 90.29 91.38 89.13 26 February 2008 89.86 90.80 88.85 27 February 2008 89.11 89.68 88.49 28 February 2008 88.80 89.30 88.26 29 February 2008 88.92 89.27 88.53 3 March 2008 88.99 89.36 88.58 4 March 2008 89.03 89.46 88.57 5 March 2008 88.90 89.30 88.47 6 March 2008 88.68 88.79 88.55 7 March 2008 88.88 88.96 88.79 10 March 2008 88.91 88.90 88.91 11 March 2008 88.94 89.15 88.72 12 March 2008 88.53 88.47 88.60 13 March 2008 88.19 87.77 88.64 14 March 2008 88.24 87.75 88.76 17 March 2008 88.12 87.30 89.01 18 March 2008 87.92 87.28 88.60 19 March 2008 88.36 88.16 88.56 20 March 2008 89.05 89.30 88.79 21 March 2008 88.95 89.24 88.62 24 March 2008 89.06 89.49 88.58 25 March 2008 88.59 88.77 88.39 26 March 2008 88.32 88.24 88.40 27 March 2008 88.24 88.15 88.32 28 March 2008 88.40 88.39 88.40 31 March 2008 88.44 88.60 88.28 1 April 2008 88.77 89.37 88.13 2 April 2008 88.66 89.22 88.06 3 April 2008 88.43 88.70 88.13 4 April 2008 88.29 88.50 88.07 7 April 2008 88.38 88.78 87.95 8 April 2008 88.51 88.97 88.00 9 April 2008 88.35 88.73 87.94 10 April 2008 88.26 88.78 87.70 11 April 2008 88.26 88.70 87.77 14 April 2008 88.12 88.54 87.67 15 April 2008 88.25 88.67 87.78 16 April 2008 87.71 87.79 87.61 17 April 2008 87.92 88.23 87.58 18 April 2008 88.37 88.94 87.75 21 April 2008 88.12 88.42 87.79 22 April 2008 87.76 87.86 87.66 23 April 2008 88.20 88.77 87.58 24 April 2008 88.51 89.25 87.72 25 April 2008 88.64 89.38 87.84 28 April 2008 88.58 89.31 87.79 29 April 2008 88.65 89.25 88.00 30 April 2008 88.69 89.36 87.98 1 May 2008 88.90 89.86 87.89 2 May 2008 89.02 90.11 87.86 5 May 2008 88.85 89.80 87.84 6 May 2008 88.64 89.29 87.95 7 May 2008 89.12 89.85 88.34 8 May 2008 89.23 89.88 88.54 9 May 2008 89.02 89.42 88.59 12 May 2008 88.84 89.24 88.41 13 May 2008 88.94 89.35 88.49 14 May 2008 89.18 89.67 88.66 15 May 2008 89.00 89.43 88.52 16 May 2008 88.60 88.93 88.23 19 May 2008 88.63 89.11 88.11 20 May 2008 88.40 88.56 88.22 21 May 2008 87.99 88.03 87.94 22 May 2008 88.15 88.32 87.96 23 May 2008 88.03 88.05 88.01 27 May 2008 88.29 88.45 88.11 28 May 2008 88.34 88.72 87.92 29 May 2008 88.41 88.99 87.79 30 May 2008 88.40 89.08 87.67 2 June 2008 88.45 89.19 87.64 3 June 2008 88.65 89.66 87.58 4 June 2008 88.91 89.89 87.87 5 June 2008 88.92 89.96 87.81 6 June 2008 88.66 89.37 87.87 9 June 2008 88.77 89.61 87.85 10 June 2008 89.28 90.50 88.00 11 June 2008 89.03 89.98 88.01 12 June 2008 89.42 90.77 88.01 13 June 2008 89.56 91.00 88.06 16 June 2008 89.22 90.55 87.83 17 June 2008 89.02 90.43 87.56 18 June 2008 89.01 90.42 87.54 19 June 2008 88.91 90.18 87.58 20 June 2008 88.75 89.92 87.52 23 June 2008 89.04 90.33 87.69 24 June 2008 88.81 89.96 87.60 25 June 2008 88.90 90.11 87.62 26 June 2008 88.55 89.44 87.59 27 June 2008 88.51 89.21 87.72 30 June 2008 88.61 89.41 87.74 1 July 2008 88.69 89.36 87.95 2 July 2008 88.34 88.92 87.69 3 July 2008 88.73 89.67 87.71 4 July 2008 88.71 89.58 87.76 7 July 2008 88.81 89.91 87.63 8 July 2008 88.80 89.96 87.57 9 July 2008 88.37 89.41 87.27 10 July 2008 88.34 89.33 87.27 11 July 2008 88.06 88.82 87.22 14 July 2008 87.96 88.68 87.17 15 July 2008 87.71 88.25 87.09 16 July 2008 87.74 88.43 86.98 17 July 2008 87.78 88.57 86.92 18 July 2008 87.92 88.85 86.92 21 July 2008 87.88 88.71 86.98 22 July 2008 88.03 89.12 86.88 23 July 2008 88.12 89.44 86.73 24 July 2008 88.23 89.70 86.70 25 July 2008 88.23 89.81 86.59 28 July 2008 88.29 89.72 86.81 29 July 2008 88.61 90.38 86.80 30 July 2008 88.62 90.39 86.81 31 July 2008 88.66 90.38 86.89 Figure: Stock price indexes: Industrial countries Daily Index(12/30/04=100) Date UK (FTSE-350) Euro Area (DJ Euro) Japan (Topix) 3 January 2005 ND 100.74 ND 4 January 2005 100.60 100.93 100.33 5 January 2005 99.74 100.19 99.45 6 January 2005 100.07 100.79 99.86 7 January 2005 100.69 101.21 99.66 10 January 2005 100.44 101.19 ND 11 January 2005 100.04 100.36 100.67 12 January 2005 99.46 99.69 99.85 13 January 2005 99.85 100.10 99.17 14 January 2005 100.27 100.47 99.66 17 January 2005 100.79 101.01 100.06 18 January 2005 100.35 100.97 99.62 19 January 2005 100.31 100.99 99.54 20 January 2005 100.00 100.40 98.59 21 January 2005 100.05 100.50 98.48 24 January 2005 100.17 100.28 99.09 25 January 2005 100.77 100.99 98.99 26 January 2005 100.87 100.99 99.59 27 January 2005 100.97 101.35 99.33 28 January 2005 100.61 100.98 99.22 31 January 2005 101.08 101.94 99.70 1 February 2005 102.15 102.67 99.73 2 February 2005 102.40 102.82 100.20 3 February 2005 102.28 102.82 99.99 4 February 2005 102.93 103.76 99.64 7 February 2005 103.66 104.29 100.42 8 February 2005 104.02 104.42 100.50 9 February 2005 103.91 104.15 100.54 10 February 2005 104.07 104.04 100.96 11 February 2005 104.91 105.15 ND 14 February 2005 104.87 105.12 101.65 15 February 2005 105.16 105.60 101.61 16 February 2005 104.92 105.09 101.33 17 February 2005 105.00 105.18 101.07 18 February 2005 104.98 105.31 101.47 21 February 2005 104.92 104.86 101.49 22 February 2005 104.34 104.24 101.12 23 February 2005 103.51 103.72 100.29 24 February 2005 103.24 103.73 100.69 25 February 2005 103.98 104.92 101.54 28 February 2005 103.32 104.73 102.42 1 March 2005 103.95 105.35 102.63 2 March 2005 103.77 105.31 103.14 3 March 2005 104.18 105.19 103.47 4 March 2005 104.65 106.09 103.70 7 March 2005 104.46 106.31 104.37 8 March 2005 104.10 105.73 103.98 9 March 2005 103.81 105.25 104.44 10 March 2005 103.16 104.37 103.98 11 March 2005 103.59 104.56 104.38 14 March 2005 103.44 104.50 103.99 15 March 2005 103.91 105.12 103.76 16 March 2005 102.67 103.57 104.23 17 March 2005 102.37 103.70 103.71 18 March 2005 102.46 104.12 104.67 21 March 2005 102.65 103.68 ND 22 March 2005 102.65 104.00 104.60 23 March 2005 101.95 103.67 103.85 24 March 2005 102.28 104.51 103.38 25 March 2005 ND ND 103.84 28 March 2005 ND ND 103.86 29 March 2005 102.17 104.61 102.26 30 March 2005 101.76 104.25 101.69 31 March 2005 101.75 104.30 102.83 1 April 2005 102.20 104.66 103.21 4 April 2005 101.80 104.07 102.92 5 April 2005 102.68 104.76 103.49 6 April 2005 102.87 105.29 104.05 7 April 2005 103.44 105.71 104.11 8 April 2005 103.61 105.78 104.49 11 April 2005 103.38 105.54 103.52 12 April 2005 102.87 105.08 102.58 13 April 2005 103.16 105.56 102.33 14 April 2005 102.72 105.27 101.63 15 April 2005 101.58 103.25 100.09 18 April 2005 100.14 101.08 96.51 19 April 2005 100.79 101.45 98.01 20 April 2005 100.15 101.13 98.43 21 April 2005 100.09 101.29 97.71 22 April 2005 100.70 102.01 98.37 25 April 2005 100.99 102.28 98.48 26 April 2005 100.52 102.07 98.41 27 April 2005 99.26 100.59 98.32 28 April 2005 99.09 100.13 98.29 29 April 2005 99.28 100.20 ND 2 May 2005 ND 100.90 98.45 3 May 2005 100.46 101.23 ND 4 May 2005 100.75 101.76 ND 5 May 2005 101.20 102.49 ND 6 May 2005 101.47 102.87 100.10 9 May 2005 101.34 102.59 100.25 10 May 2005 100.93 101.93 100.00 11 May 2005 100.62 101.73 99.62 12 May 2005 101.07 102.37 99.20 13 May 2005 100.92 102.43 98.71 16 May 2005 100.90 102.28 97.72 17 May 2005 101.21 102.09 96.71 18 May 2005 102.17 103.69 96.48 19 May 2005 102.56 104.18 98.42 20 May 2005 102.73 104.27 98.28 23 May 2005 103.16 104.79 98.96 24 May 2005 103.05 104.54 98.84 25 May 2005 102.90 104.47 97.83 26 May 2005 103.46 105.28 97.73 27 May 2005 103.33 105.21 98.50 30 May 2005 ND 105.68 99.32 31 May 2005 102.95 105.19 99.54 1 June 2005 103.86 106.71 99.99 2 June 2005 103.80 106.81 99.93 3 June 2005 103.77 106.43 99.83 6 June 2005 103.40 106.01 99.63 7 June 2005 104.31 107.05 99.27 8 June 2005 103.89 106.88 99.91 9 June 2005 103.97 106.84 99.05 10 June 2005 104.44 107.54 99.94 13 June 2005 104.89 108.02 100.00 14 June 2005 104.78 108.09 100.06 15 June 2005 104.23 107.63 100.75 16 June 2005 104.81 108.14 100.95 17 June 2005 105.47 108.67 101.97 20 June 2005 105.33 108.14 101.83 21 June 2005 105.44 108.68 101.70 22 June 2005 105.83 108.87 102.05 23 June 2005 106.18 109.12 102.12 24 June 2005 105.44 108.19 102.07 27 June 2005 104.68 107.24 101.03 28 June 2005 105.61 108.17 101.78 29 June 2005 105.98 108.80 102.34 30 June 2005 106.13 108.90 102.40 1 July 2005 107.14 109.73 102.80 4 July 2005 107.53 109.90 103.17 5 July 2005 107.58 109.66 102.94 6 July 2005 108.47 110.16 102.96 7 July 2005 106.98 108.43 102.66 8 July 2005 108.56 110.09 102.43 11 July 2005 108.84 110.88 103.08 12 July 2005 108.33 110.58 103.16 13 July 2005 108.85 111.28 103.14 14 July 2005 109.03 111.80 103.61 15 July 2005 108.44 111.76 103.80 18 July 2005 108.07 111.74 ND 19 July 2005 107.80 112.97 103.64 20 July 2005 108.09 112.73 104.06 21 July 2005 108.26 112.81 103.93 22 July 2005 108.68 112.70 103.23 25 July 2005 109.21 112.78 103.54 26 July 2005 108.93 112.90 103.43 27 July 2005 109.19 113.24 104.29 28 July 2005 109.35 113.84 104.53 29 July 2005 109.62 113.64 104.81 1 August 2005 109.80 113.63 105.39 2 August 2005 110.49 114.43 105.18 3 August 2005 110.65 114.38 105.43 4 August 2005 110.37 113.48 104.74 5 August 2005 110.35 112.72 103.44 8 August 2005 110.86 113.14 103.68 9 August 2005 111.27 114.21 104.93 10 August 2005 111.58 115.37 106.80 11 August 2005 111.16 114.83 108.19 12 August 2005 110.95 114.20 108.31 15 August 2005 110.93 114.00 108.62 16 August 2005 110.51 113.49 108.92 17 August 2005 109.90 113.13 108.74 18 August 2005 109.41 112.67 108.99 19 August 2005 110.28 113.95 108.77 22 August 2005 110.43 114.15 110.45 23 August 2005 110.14 113.30 110.64 24 August 2005 109.68 113.11 110.96 25 August 2005 109.28 112.10 110.30 26 August 2005 108.82 111.17 110.68 29 August 2005 ND 111.56 109.48 30 August 2005 109.36 111.44 110.78 31 August 2005 110.16 112.43 110.58 1 September 2005 110.82 113.05 111.11 2 September 2005 110.77 112.91 111.58 5 September 2005 110.97 113.73 112.26 6 September 2005 111.36 114.80 111.89 7 September 2005 111.59 115.15 111.82 8 September 2005 111.06 115.08 111.24 9 September 2005 111.47 115.49 112.50 12 September 2005 111.85 115.45 113.93 13 September 2005 111.06 114.56 114.45 14 September 2005 111.28 114.96 114.15 15 September 2005 111.94 115.00 115.45 16 September 2005 112.44 115.87 115.59 19 September 2005 112.89 115.58 ND 20 September 2005 112.65 116.18 117.65 21 September 2005 111.65 114.78 118.10 22 September 2005 111.92 114.31 117.97 23 September 2005 112.48 114.95 ND 26 September 2005 113.25 116.79 120.60 27 September 2005 113.13 116.34 119.75 28 September 2005 114.07 117.59 121.91 29 September 2005 113.76 117.17 124.23 30 September 2005 113.80 117.74 122.85 3 October 2005 114.26 118.46 122.76 4 October 2005 114.15 119.01 123.68 5 October 2005 112.77 117.77 122.62 6 October 2005 111.56 116.52 119.29 7 October 2005 111.32 116.19 119.39 10 October 2005 111.59 116.44 ND 11 October 2005 111.78 116.66 122.30 12 October 2005 110.98 115.79 122.38 13 October 2005 109.34 114.58 122.46 14 October 2005 109.52 114.98 121.60 17 October 2005 109.73 115.09 121.21 18 October 2005 109.29 114.45 121.14 19 October 2005 107.20 112.32 120.02 20 October 2005 107.26 112.56 120.38 21 October 2005 106.80 112.07 120.51 24 October 2005 108.16 113.39 119.73 25 October 2005 107.68 112.96 121.22 26 October 2005 108.69 113.32 122.45 27 October 2005 107.69 111.44 123.85 28 October 2005 108.18 111.49 123.50 31 October 2005 110.45 113.89 125.67 1 November 2005 111.06 113.88 128.13 2 November 2005 111.50 114.20 128.24 3 November 2005 113.00 115.52 ND 4 November 2005 112.81 115.31 130.04 7 November 2005 113.60 115.64 130.40 8 November 2005 113.60 115.61 130.26 9 November 2005 113.19 115.54 129.41 10 November 2005 112.92 115.61 129.14 11 November 2005 113.75 116.99 130.00 14 November 2005 113.92 117.16 128.77 15 November 2005 113.39 117.10 128.08 16 November 2005 113.15 116.52 129.29 17 November 2005 113.77 117.03 131.38 18 November 2005 114.63 117.72 133.23 21 November 2005 114.70 118.25 132.87 22 November 2005 115.07 118.31 132.79 23 November 2005 115.45 118.99 ND 24 November 2005 115.05 118.69 132.01 25 November 2005 115.34 118.97 133.06 28 November 2005 114.49 118.52 134.25 29 November 2005 114.80 118.80 134.35 30 November 2005 113.54 118.34 133.63 1 December 2005 114.81 119.99 135.68 2 December 2005 115.75 120.63 137.76 5 December 2005 115.40 120.17 138.96 6 December 2005 115.93 120.77 138.42 7 December 2005 115.78 120.54 139.05 8 December 2005 115.71 120.72 136.46 9 December 2005 115.53 120.54 138.41 12 December 2005 115.27 120.88 140.70 13 December 2005 115.42 121.11 141.45 14 December 2005 115.62 120.88 139.37 15 December 2005 115.20 120.96 137.75 16 December 2005 115.97 121.99 137.50 19 December 2005 116.15 121.88 138.24 20 December 2005 116.30 122.04 140.39 21 December 2005 117.14 123.02 142.34 22 December 2005 117.43 123.03 142.47 23 December 2005 117.47 123.32 ND 26 December 2005 ND ND 143.43 27 December 2005 ND 123.78 142.47 28 December 2005 117.93 123.63 143.87 29 December 2005 118.36 124.00 144.72 30 December 2005 117.95 123.02 143.50 2 January 2006 ND 123.87 ND 3 January 2006 119.27 124.38 ND 4 January 2006 119.99 125.63 145.53 5 January 2006 119.46 125.46 146.58 6 January 2006 120.22 126.00 146.56 9 January 2006 120.18 126.27 ND 10 January 2006 119.31 125.55 144.31 11 January 2006 120.24 126.48 145.48 12 January 2006 120.33 126.64 146.51 13 January 2006 119.86 125.51 146.28 16 January 2006 120.43 126.03 145.28 17 January 2006 119.57 125.00 141.92 18 January 2006 118.86 123.86 136.97 19 January 2006 119.60 124.79 140.94 20 January 2006 119.25 123.63 141.30 23 January 2006 118.94 123.39 138.12 24 January 2006 118.48 123.24 140.26 25 January 2006 120.00 124.64 140.78 26 January 2006 120.37 126.43 142.94 27 January 2006 121.77 127.98 147.03 30 January 2006 121.57 127.87 148.25 31 January 2006 121.22 128.09 148.81 1 February 2006 122.16 129.42 147.37 2 February 2006 121.11 127.99 148.83 3 February 2006 121.34 128.15 148.57 6 February 2006 121.66 128.53 148.94 7 February 2006 121.11 128.54 149.05 8 February 2006 120.72 128.23 145.38 9 February 2006 122.47 129.83 146.33 10 February 2006 121.58 129.05 144.41 13 February 2006 122.13 129.95 140.74 14 February 2006 122.08 130.03 142.24 15 February 2006 122.09 129.99 141.29 16 February 2006 122.83 130.83 141.91 17 February 2006 123.34 131.29 139.64 20 February 2006 123.61 131.43 136.75 21 February 2006 123.52 131.82 140.27 22 February 2006 123.81 132.99 140.00 23 February 2006 123.15 132.93 142.70 24 February 2006 123.61 133.38 143.33 27 February 2006 123.94 133.96 144.12 28 February 2006 122.31 131.95 144.43 1 March 2006 123.36 133.05 142.27 2 March 2006 123.15 131.80 141.98 3 March 2006 123.56 131.16 140.30 6 March 2006 124.41 131.87 141.48 7 March 2006 123.52 131.21 140.73 8 March 2006 122.42 130.37 139.66 9 March 2006 123.34 131.55 142.74 10 March 2006 124.37 132.79 143.29 13 March 2006 125.49 133.85 145.67 14 March 2006 125.55 134.10 144.90 15 March 2006 125.97 134.58 144.98 16 March 2006 126.64 134.62 143.09 17 March 2006 126.81 134.72 144.74 20 March 2006 126.61 135.11 146.85 21 March 2006 126.59 135.30 ND 22 March 2006 126.98 135.71 146.69 23 March 2006 126.65 135.63 146.14 24 March 2006 127.63 136.06 146.95 27 March 2006 126.33 134.86 147.34 28 March 2006 125.60 134.20 147.24 29 March 2006 126.04 134.73 148.88 30 March 2006 127.11 136.20 150.19 31 March 2006 126.19 135.70 150.32 3 April 2006 127.32 136.60 152.63 4 April 2006 126.99 135.88 152.19 5 April 2006 127.78 136.35 151.88 6 April 2006 127.85 136.47 154.46 7 April 2006 127.44 135.34 155.16 10 April 2006 128.09 135.88 154.60 11 April 2006 126.92 133.97 153.98 12 April 2006 126.55 133.51 151.60 13 April 2006 127.21 133.67 151.68 14 April 2006 ND ND 151.71 17 April 2006 ND ND 149.53 18 April 2006 127.50 133.36 151.51 19 April 2006 128.48 135.06 151.99 20 April 2006 128.37 136.26 152.04 21 April 2006 129.41 137.34 152.78 24 April 2006 128.79 136.65 148.81 25 April 2006 128.61 136.81 149.59 26 April 2006 128.99 137.28 149.90 27 April 2006 128.05 136.44 150.43 28 April 2006 127.30 135.51 149.30 1 May 2006 ND ND 149.37 2 May 2006 128.45 136.35 151.11 3 May 2006 127.10 135.25 ND 4 May 2006 127.69 136.08 ND 5 May 2006 128.97 137.27 ND 8 May 2006 128.57 137.56 152.66 9 May 2006 129.27 137.98 152.01 10 May 2006 128.82 137.29 150.05 11 May 2006 128.02 136.44 148.86 12 May 2006 125.17 133.42 146.85 15 May 2006 123.41 131.57 146.29 16 May 2006 123.47 131.75 143.09 17 May 2006 119.89 127.73 144.14 18 May 2006 119.55 127.25 141.97 19 May 2006 119.40 127.71 142.53 22 May 2006 116.46 123.94 140.55 23 May 2006 119.87 126.92 137.37 24 May 2006 117.87 125.48 139.70 25 May 2006 119.77 127.23 137.85 26 May 2006 122.41 129.63 140.37 29 May 2006 ND 129.31 140.58 30 May 2006 119.39 126.35 140.29 31 May 2006 120.80 127.74 137.43 1 June 2006 121.29 128.16 137.83 2 June 2006 121.82 128.19 139.71 5 June 2006 121.59 127.18 138.73 6 June 2006 119.40 124.25 136.33 7 June 2006 120.12 125.08 133.39 8 June 2006 116.98 121.71 128.93 9 June 2006 119.04 123.56 130.36 12 June 2006 118.34 122.28 131.42 13 June 2006 116.02 119.59 126.85 14 June 2006 115.91 119.78 127.53 15 June 2006 118.54 122.79 129.26 16 June 2006 118.14 121.93 133.50 19 June 2006 118.69 122.92 132.88 20 June 2006 119.28 123.61 131.37 21 June 2006 119.35 123.85 130.96 22 June 2006 119.88 124.54 134.75 23 June 2006 120.03 124.73 134.44 26 June 2006 119.84 124.55 134.74 27 June 2006 119.32 123.69 134.77 28 June 2006 119.79 123.52 132.87 29 June 2006 122.03 125.91 134.63 30 June 2006 123.01 128.15 138.04 3 July 2006 124.07 128.74 138.59 4 July 2006 124.07 128.97 139.39 5 July 2006 122.89 127.27 138.30 6 July 2006 124.11 128.50 136.76 7 July 2006 124.03 128.11 136.84 10 July 2006 124.09 128.63 138.66 11 July 2006 123.25 127.12 137.94 12 July 2006 123.39 127.68 136.02 13 July 2006 121.31 125.48 134.92 14 July 2006 120.09 123.70 132.37 17 July 2006 119.86 122.98 ND 18 July 2006 119.42 122.66 128.33 19 July 2006 121.56 125.73 128.34 20 July 2006 121.48 126.12 132.96 21 July 2006 120.38 124.76 131.83 24 July 2006 122.64 127.13 131.71 25 July 2006 123.00 127.23 133.51 26 July 2006 123.54 127.63 132.25 27 July 2006 124.63 129.07 134.11 28 July 2006 125.46 129.87 135.64 31 July 2006 124.59 129.44 136.74 1 August 2006 123.72 128.15 136.31 2 August 2006 124.74 129.83 136.54 3 August 2006 122.80 128.89 136.52 4 August 2006 123.90 130.40 136.71 7 August 2006 122.67 128.63 133.97 8 August 2006 122.50 128.95 135.93 9 August 2006 123.32 129.96 137.30 10 August 2006 122.53 128.89 137.69 11 August 2006 122.45 128.90 137.25 14 August 2006 123.46 130.24 139.26 15 August 2006 124.05 131.55 139.62 16 August 2006 124.20 132.54 141.76 17 August 2006 124.34 132.95 141.91 18 August 2006 124.44 132.75 142.78 21 August 2006 124.64 132.25 141.28 22 August 2006 124.39 132.77 142.81 23 August 2006 123.55 131.86 142.68 24 August 2006 123.72 132.58 141.18 25 August 2006 123.96 132.65 140.90 28 August 2006 ND 133.45 139.20 29 August 2006 124.20 133.56 140.57 30 August 2006 125.04 134.12 140.28 31 August 2006 124.66 133.86 142.17 1 September 2006 125.63 134.44 142.08 4 September 2006 126.41 135.05 143.47 5 September 2006 126.32 134.42 143.64 6 September 2006 125.26 133.05 142.90 7 September 2006 123.74 131.94 140.35 8 September 2006 124.18 132.40 140.91 11 September 2006 123.51 132.04 138.87 12 September 2006 124.47 133.55 137.96 13 September 2006 124.53 134.09 137.74 14 September 2006 124.37 134.01 139.01 15 September 2006 124.48 134.57 138.60 18 September 2006 124.74 134.57 ND 19 September 2006 123.57 133.70 138.48 20 September 2006 124.29 135.47 136.58 21 September 2006 124.96 135.92 137.44 22 September 2006 123.48 134.49 136.01 25 September 2006 123.00 134.64 135.68 26 September 2006 124.53 136.30 134.77 27 September 2006 125.67 137.27 138.40 28 September 2006 126.54 137.41 139.40 29 September 2006 126.38 137.60 140.11 2 October 2006 126.38 137.44 141.36 3 October 2006 125.89 136.98 140.73 4 October 2006 126.50 138.02 139.35 5 October 2006 127.42 138.92 142.06 6 October 2006 127.45 138.91 142.15 9 October 2006 127.94 139.05 ND 10 October 2006 128.87 139.90 142.20 11 October 2006 128.89 140.09 141.10 12 October 2006 129.94 141.19 140.36 13 October 2006 130.69 141.25 141.61 16 October 2006 130.92 141.49 143.18 17 October 2006 129.47 139.70 142.48 18 October 2006 130.45 141.13 142.54 19 October 2006 130.55 141.12 142.29 20 October 2006 130.57 141.51 143.02 23 October 2006 130.77 142.18 144.34 24 October 2006 131.14 142.09 144.61 25 October 2006 131.77 142.45 143.82 26 October 2006 131.31 142.58 144.79 27 October 2006 130.67 142.21 143.59 30 October 2006 129.97 141.74 140.97 31 October 2006 130.12 141.84 140.69 1 November 2006 130.56 142.27 141.13 2 November 2006 130.53 141.15 140.83 3 November 2006 130.49 141.77 ND 6 November 2006 132.08 143.47 140.63 7 November 2006 132.55 144.26 140.63 8 November 2006 132.47 144.28 138.96 9 November 2006 132.38 144.31 138.22 10 November 2006 132.08 144.20 137.55 13 November 2006 131.93 144.92 136.46 14 November 2006 131.81 144.76 138.86 15 November 2006 132.73 145.71 138.48 16 November 2006 133.25 145.86 137.61 17 November 2006 131.89 144.84 136.87 20 November 2006 132.14 145.19 133.43 21 November 2006 132.16 145.45 133.34 22 November 2006 131.27 145.68 135.08 23 November 2006 130.87 145.34 ND 24 November 2006 130.40 144.21 133.79 27 November 2006 128.92 141.82 135.09 28 November 2006 128.49 141.38 135.27 29 November 2006 129.86 143.34 137.44 30 November 2006 129.22 142.11 139.44 1 December 2006 128.78 140.67 139.60 4 December 2006 129.40 141.67 139.85 5 December 2006 130.20 143.05 139.08 6 December 2006 130.32 143.07 140.49 7 December 2006 131.12 143.86 141.16 8 December 2006 131.60 143.94 140.60 11 December 2006 131.81 144.98 141.61 12 December 2006 131.65 145.15 142.37 13 December 2006 132.39 146.30 142.58 14 December 2006 133.16 147.05 143.69 15 December 2006 133.81 147.91 144.17 18 December 2006 133.59 147.81 144.86 19 December 2006 132.73 146.80 143.12 20 December 2006 132.62 147.51 145.00 21 December 2006 132.39 147.34 145.38 22 December 2006 132.54 146.12 145.45 25 December 2006 ND ND 144.82 26 December 2006 ND ND 145.48 27 December 2006 133.67 147.99 145.87 28 December 2006 133.65 148.01 146.04 29 December 2006 133.26 147.97 146.23 2 January 2007 135.15 149.97 ND 3 January 2007 135.30 149.99 ND 4 January 2007 134.59 149.42 147.78 5 January 2007 133.27 148.08 145.73 8 January 2007 132.74 148.11 ND 9 January 2007 132.77 148.41 147.19 10 January 2007 132.01 147.25 144.66 11 January 2007 133.33 149.67 144.11 12 January 2007 133.48 150.10 146.59 15 January 2007 134.09 150.70 148.27 16 January 2007 133.07 150.09 148.18 17 January 2007 132.82 149.57 148.46 18 January 2007 132.97 149.43 149.19 19 January 2007 133.55 150.68 149.11 22 January 2007 133.20 149.90 150.51 23 January 2007 133.25 149.75 150.55 24 January 2007 135.00 151.37 151.23 25 January 2007 134.13 150.89 150.43 26 January 2007 133.29 150.02 150.31 29 January 2007 133.48 150.72 150.80 30 January 2007 133.57 151.43 150.62 31 January 2007 132.80 151.00 149.78 1 February 2007 134.46 152.25 151.23 2 February 2007 135.20 152.89 151.56 5 February 2007 135.44 152.98 149.29 6 February 2007 136.09 153.14 150.69 7 February 2007 136.55 153.92 150.34 8 February 2007 136.02 152.97 149.63 9 February 2007 136.84 153.75 151.80 12 February 2007 136.18 152.58 ND 13 February 2007 136.73 153.43 152.74 14 February 2007 137.56 154.64 153.55 15 February 2007 137.85 154.62 154.55 16 February 2007 137.56 154.41 154.36 19 February 2007 138.16 155.18 154.83 20 February 2007 137.49 154.72 155.07 21 February 2007 136.40 154.07 155.46 22 February 2007 136.91 154.44 156.82 23 February 2007 137.32 154.56 157.87 26 February 2007 137.94 155.31 158.05 27 February 2007 134.45 150.57 157.56 28 February 2007 132.20 148.57 152.46 1 March 2007 131.01 146.70 151.36 2 March 2007 131.13 146.25 149.75 5 March 2007 129.74 144.76 144.63 6 March 2007 131.47 145.82 147.22 7 March 2007 132.11 146.62 146.97 8 March 2007 133.73 148.82 149.70 9 March 2007 134.13 149.12 150.51 12 March 2007 133.93 148.50 151.47 13 March 2007 132.34 146.80 150.09 14 March 2007 128.85 142.95 145.69 15 March 2007 131.75 145.80 147.37 16 March 2007 131.79 145.90 145.88 19 March 2007 133.17 148.32 147.36 20 March 2007 133.77 149.18 148.59 21 March 2007 134.71 149.52 ND 22 March 2007 136.00 152.30 150.64 23 March 2007 136.38 153.13 151.52 26 March 2007 135.43 151.77 151.47 27 March 2007 135.41 151.90 149.95 28 March 2007 134.84 150.96 148.84 29 March 2007 136.03 152.87 148.80 30 March 2007 135.78 152.95 149.06 2 April 2007 136.05 153.39 146.35 3 April 2007 137.19 155.25 148.25 4 April 2007 137.17 155.73 150.53 5 April 2007 137.81 156.00 149.68 6 April 2007 ND ND 149.36 9 April 2007 ND ND 151.19 10 April 2007 138.32 157.12 150.98 11 April 2007 138.17 156.82 151.27 12 April 2007 138.12 156.30 150.15 13 April 2007 139.01 157.38 148.35 16 April 2007 140.15 159.34 150.10 17 April 2007 139.66 159.28 149.28 18 April 2007 138.68 158.39 150.54 19 April 2007 138.39 157.85 148.48 20 April 2007 139.41 160.27 148.75 23 April 2007 139.32 159.85 148.36 24 April 2007 138.22 158.47 148.41 25 April 2007 138.96 159.78 146.77 26 April 2007 139.16 160.15 148.17 27 April 2007 138.17 159.26 147.96 30 April 2007 138.78 159.44 ND 1 May 2007 138.21 ND 147.29 2 May 2007 139.58 160.28 148.24 3 May 2007 140.60 160.49 ND 4 May 2007 142.10 161.46 ND 7 May 2007 ND 161.58 150.75 8 May 2007 140.94 160.17 150.71 9 May 2007 140.83 160.52 151.79 10 May 2007 140.38 159.43 151.09 11 May 2007 141.09 160.33 149.88 14 May 2007 140.91 160.07 150.57 15 May 2007 141.25 160.95 148.97 16 May 2007 141.09 160.54 148.91 17 May 2007 141.53 160.90 148.51 18 May 2007 142.76 162.58 147.50 21 May 2007 142.68 162.21 148.80 22 May 2007 142.09 162.50 150.62 23 May 2007 142.34 163.59 151.36 24 May 2007 141.25 162.22 151.19 25 May 2007 141.22 162.35 149.23 28 May 2007 ND ND 149.99 29 May 2007 141.96 162.87 151.17 30 May 2007 141.73 162.50 150.81 31 May 2007 142.24 164.28 152.72 1 June 2007 143.40 165.63 153.78 4 June 2007 143.06 164.97 154.21 5 June 2007 142.37 164.01 154.53 6 June 2007 139.85 160.91 154.70 7 June 2007 139.25 158.96 154.81 8 June 2007 139.18 158.70 152.76 11 June 2007 140.41 160.33 153.19 12 June 2007 139.45 159.23 152.36 13 June 2007 140.19 159.74 151.87 14 June 2007 142.22 162.66 152.80 15 June 2007 144.06 164.89 154.22 18 June 2007 143.44 164.27 155.56 19 June 2007 142.24 163.91 154.88 20 June 2007 142.19 164.52 155.16 21 June 2007 140.89 162.66 155.65 22 June 2007 140.32 162.21 154.66 25 June 2007 140.68 161.84 153.52 26 June 2007 140.08 160.61 153.60 27 June 2007 139.25 159.75 151.45 28 June 2007 140.27 161.53 152.32 29 June 2007 140.95 162.60 154.39 2 July 2007 140.65 162.13 154.86 3 July 2007 141.92 163.43 154.99 4 July 2007 142.68 164.14 155.04 5 July 2007 141.94 162.96 155.54 6 July 2007 143.05 164.07 154.80 9 July 2007 143.45 164.35 155.90 10 July 2007 141.73 162.52 155.63 11 July 2007 141.33 161.66 153.76 12 July 2007 143.09 163.94 153.36 13 July 2007 143.64 164.63 155.11 16 July 2007 143.28 165.00 ND 17 July 2007 142.37 164.20 154.67 18 July 2007 140.56 162.15 152.98 19 July 2007 142.17 163.77 153.79 20 July 2007 141.06 161.40 154.50 23 July 2007 141.71 162.51 152.86 24 July 2007 139.06 160.04 153.61 25 July 2007 137.95 158.41 152.57 26 July 2007 133.57 154.37 151.11 27 July 2007 132.82 153.65 147.85 30 July 2007 132.82 153.45 148.37 31 July 2007 136.09 156.35 148.41 1 August 2007 133.83 153.67 145.16 2 August 2007 134.82 155.04 145.21 3 August 2007 133.35 153.11 145.49 6 August 2007 132.38 151.88 145.09 7 August 2007 134.98 153.88 144.41 8 August 2007 136.92 156.93 145.18 9 August 2007 134.25 153.94 146.47 10 August 2007 129.44 149.92 142.13 13 August 2007 133.22 152.95 142.01 14 August 2007 131.55 151.28 142.43 15 August 2007 130.73 150.74 138.67 16 August 2007 125.41 145.69 136.34 17 August 2007 129.54 148.32 128.77 20 August 2007 129.84 149.30 132.53 21 August 2007 129.86 149.55 134.82 22 August 2007 132.34 151.94 134.38 23 August 2007 132.42 152.11 138.46 24 August 2007 132.89 152.68 137.94 27 August 2007 ND 152.91 138.11 28 August 2007 130.43 150.50 137.84 29 August 2007 131.15 151.35 135.48 30 August 2007 132.97 153.08 136.41 31 August 2007 135.01 154.95 139.89 3 September 2007 135.31 155.25 139.65 4 September 2007 136.70 156.16 138.89 5 September 2007 134.40 153.08 136.52 6 September 2007 135.23 153.62 136.44 7 September 2007 132.60 150.09 135.44 10 September 2007 131.33 148.84 132.67 11 September 2007 134.42 151.06 133.29 12 September 2007 134.90 151.38 132.94 13 September 2007 135.87 152.67 132.47 14 September 2007 134.12 151.53 134.37 17 September 2007 131.81 149.85 ND 18 September 2007 133.74 152.45 131.43 19 September 2007 137.56 156.77 136.36 20 September 2007 136.78 155.84 136.29 21 September 2007 137.43 156.50 135.01 24 September 2007 137.50 156.25 ND 25 September 2007 135.91 154.91 136.29 26 September 2007 136.63 156.24 137.09 27 September 2007 137.87 157.26 140.49 28 September 2007 137.51 157.05 140.62 1 October 2007 138.31 158.25 140.56 2 October 2007 138.46 159.04 142.64 3 October 2007 139.33 159.18 144.74 4 October 2007 139.58 159.20 144.01 5 October 2007 140.49 160.49 144.13 8 October 2007 139.38 160.09 ND 9 October 2007 140.91 160.75 144.40 10 October 2007 141.38 160.68 144.24 11 October 2007 143.24 161.66 145.92 12 October 2007 143.28 161.67 144.35 15 October 2007 141.46 160.19 144.17 16 October 2007 140.78 159.42 141.37 17 October 2007 142.24 160.41 139.20 18 October 2007 140.77 159.42 140.72 19 October 2007 139.09 158.91 138.42 22 October 2007 137.62 156.78 135.96 23 October 2007 138.94 158.11 136.61 24 October 2007 138.21 157.20 136.03 25 October 2007 140.29 159.17 134.66 26 October 2007 141.89 159.98 136.91 29 October 2007 142.78 161.02 139.74 30 October 2007 141.79 160.43 139.80 31 October 2007 143.27 161.61 140.92 1 November 2007 140.55 159.12 142.29 2 November 2007 139.39 158.71 139.19 5 November 2007 137.90 157.77 137.01 6 November 2007 138.18 158.36 136.96 7 November 2007 136.19 157.59 135.41 8 November 2007 135.95 156.25 131.95 9 November 2007 134.24 154.07 129.99 12 November 2007 134.91 154.24 126.68 13 November 2007 135.39 154.29 126.54 14 November 2007 136.93 155.24 130.28 15 November 2007 135.31 153.65 130.38 16 November 2007 133.83 152.69 128.01 19 November 2007 130.08 150.00 126.70 20 November 2007 132.18 151.56 127.80 21 November 2007 128.83 148.18 125.15 22 November 2007 130.55 148.69 125.03 23 November 2007 132.88 150.98 ND 26 November 2007 131.25 150.16 127.61 27 November 2007 130.24 149.73 128.63 28 November 2007 133.79 153.31 128.36 29 November 2007 134.71 154.13 131.74 30 November 2007 136.38 156.06 133.25 3 December 2007 135.20 155.27 133.27 4 December 2007 133.39 153.58 131.82 5 December 2007 137.08 156.10 132.79 6 December 2007 136.90 156.28 135.02 7 December 2007 138.41 157.44 135.85 10 December 2007 138.59 158.25 135.57 11 December 2007 138.11 157.81 136.31 12 December 2007 138.52 158.13 135.43 13 December 2007 134.40 154.60 131.88 14 December 2007 135.14 155.13 130.59 17 December 2007 132.48 152.42 128.10 18 December 2007 132.59 152.41 127.85 19 December 2007 132.77 151.90 126.72 20 December 2007 134.17 152.27 126.79 21 December 2007 136.02 154.57 127.80 24 December 2007 136.95 ND ND 25 December 2007 136.95 ND 130.13 26 December 2007 136.95 ND 131.21 27 December 2007 137.32 155.07 130.47 28 December 2007 137.01 155.24 128.36 31 December 2007 136.66 155.17 ND 2 January 2008 135.90 153.31 ND 3 January 2008 136.87 152.67 ND 4 January 2008 134.00 150.21 122.81 7 January 2008 133.48 149.93 121.14 8 January 2008 133.97 150.52 122.04 9 January 2008 132.10 148.76 123.89 10 January 2008 130.90 147.56 121.90 11 January 2008 130.57 147.18 119.83 14 January 2008 131.17 147.87 ND 15 January 2008 127.22 143.92 117.45 16 January 2008 125.47 142.43 113.29 17 January 2008 124.79 141.33 115.73 18 January 2008 124.80 139.47 116.69 21 January 2008 118.15 130.41 112.54 22 January 2008 121.72 132.46 106.12 23 January 2008 119.11 127.29 108.72 24 January 2008 124.62 134.94 111.73 25 January 2008 124.30 134.62 116.97 28 January 2008 122.66 133.90 112.47 29 January 2008 124.88 136.09 115.58 30 January 2008 124.00 135.18 114.83 31 January 2008 124.74 134.85 117.11 1 February 2008 128.00 137.65 116.29 4 February 2008 128.07 138.01 118.71 5 February 2008 124.65 132.72 117.91 6 February 2008 124.70 133.97 112.94 7 February 2008 121.68 131.64 113.52 8 February 2008 122.85 131.69 111.96 11 February 2008 121.33 130.78 ND 12 February 2008 125.56 135.17 111.87 13 February 2008 124.94 135.57 111.81 14 February 2008 125.08 135.60 115.90 15 February 2008 123.07 133.13 116.11 18 February 2008 126.31 135.55 115.95 19 February 2008 126.89 136.14 117.02 20 February 2008 125.40 134.51 113.32 21 February 2008 126.20 135.26 116.10 22 February 2008 125.18 133.87 114.94 25 February 2008 127.60 135.99 117.91 26 February 2008 129.40 137.98 117.21 27 February 2008 129.26 137.86 118.69 28 February 2008 126.90 135.40 117.70 29 February 2008 125.13 133.43 115.19 3 March 2008 123.83 131.64 110.57 4 March 2008 122.78 129.45 110.09 5 March 2008 124.69 132.19 109.94 6 March 2008 122.83 130.05 112.00 7 March 2008 121.38 128.51 108.54 10 March 2008 119.77 127.04 106.50 11 March 2008 121.07 128.99 107.44 12 March 2008 123.01 130.46 109.18 13 March 2008 121.15 128.51 105.76 14 March 2008 119.88 127.55 103.79 17 March 2008 115.34 122.72 100.00 18 March 2008 119.23 126.70 101.22 19 March 2008 118.03 125.63 104.06 20 March 2008 116.94 125.03 ND 21 March 2008 ND ND 106.12 24 March 2008 ND ND 106.48 25 March 2008 121.08 129.34 108.12 26 March 2008 120.49 128.94 107.65 27 March 2008 121.92 130.40 106.68 28 March 2008 121.43 130.05 108.19 31 March 2008 121.68 129.77 105.51 1 April 2008 124.99 133.93 107.03 2 April 2008 126.22 135.35 111.52 3 April 2008 125.44 134.40 113.05 4 April 2008 126.45 135.05 112.12 7 April 2008 127.83 136.26 113.57 8 April 2008 127.16 135.29 111.57 9 April 2008 126.98 134.26 109.85 10 April 2008 126.54 133.63 108.56 11 April 2008 125.12 131.90 111.22 14 April 2008 123.80 130.86 108.40 15 April 2008 125.28 131.44 109.25 16 April 2008 128.16 133.76 110.63 17 April 2008 126.94 133.05 112.50 18 April 2008 128.60 135.97 113.43 21 April 2008 128.36 134.73 115.82 22 April 2008 127.91 133.74 114.08 23 April 2008 128.85 134.82 114.33 24 April 2008 128.05 134.70 113.74 25 April 2008 128.87 135.96 116.55 28 April 2008 129.02 136.76 118.45 29 April 2008 128.82 135.88 ND 30 April 2008 128.97 136.97 118.18 1 May 2008 128.89 ND 117.09 2 May 2008 131.61 138.96 119.81 5 May 2008 ND 138.83 ND 6 May 2008 131.67 137.99 ND 7 May 2008 132.71 139.13 121.19 8 May 2008 133.06 138.67 119.43 9 May 2008 131.65 136.93 116.71 12 May 2008 132.10 137.40 116.80 13 May 2008 131.68 137.59 118.30 14 May 2008 131.59 138.89 119.43 15 May 2008 132.36 138.87 121.16 16 May 2008 133.52 139.36 121.42 19 May 2008 135.02 140.33 122.15 20 May 2008 131.11 137.83 121.76 21 May 2008 131.09 136.76 119.18 22 May 2008 130.82 136.80 120.01 23 May 2008 128.89 134.44 119.75 26 May 2008 ND 134.29 116.92 27 May 2008 128.29 133.82 119.02 28 May 2008 128.54 135.13 117.32 29 May 2008 128.57 135.33 120.09 30 May 2008 128.22 136.39 122.49 2 June 2008 127.18 134.46 123.96 3 June 2008 128.20 135.15 122.43 4 June 2008 126.57 133.84 124.43 5 June 2008 127.09 133.62 123.91 6 June 2008 125.16 130.61 124.22 9 June 2008 124.47 130.06 121.56 10 June 2008 123.36 129.08 120.32 11 June 2008 121.11 126.80 120.91 12 June 2008 122.56 127.87 118.57 13 June 2008 122.95 128.41 119.31 16 June 2008 122.77 127.72 121.93 17 June 2008 124.16 128.49 121.95 18 June 2008 121.90 126.48 122.62 19 June 2008 120.86 125.61 119.66 20 June 2008 119.11 123.49 118.02 23 June 2008 119.90 123.11 117.25 24 June 2008 119.09 122.04 117.36 25 June 2008 119.88 124.03 117.09 26 June 2008 116.80 120.72 116.98 27 June 2008 117.01 119.98 114.88 30 June 2008 118.85 120.28 114.83 1 July 2008 115.79 117.74 114.83 2 July 2008 114.37 117.19 113.18 3 July 2008 115.30 118.24 112.91 4 July 2008 113.89 116.38 112.90 7 July 2008 115.92 118.25 114.19 8 July 2008 114.35 116.30 111.65 9 July 2008 116.28 118.36 111.82 10 July 2008 113.79 116.08 112.28 11 July 2008 110.81 112.86 111.85 14 July 2008 111.70 113.68 111.40 15 July 2008 109.06 110.93 109.00 16 July 2008 108.88 112.23 108.67 17 July 2008 111.88 115.42 109.92 18 July 2008 113.94 117.47 108.94 21 July 2008 114.59 118.22 ND 22 July 2008 113.75 117.66 112.01 23 July 2008 115.67 119.94 113.37 24 July 2008 113.75 118.15 115.91 25 July 2008 113.35 118.03 112.93 28 July 2008 112.36 116.53 113.15 29 July 2008 112.51 116.79 111.48 30 July 2008 114.64 118.21 113.34 31 July 2008 114.43 118.12 113.39 ND No data Return to table Figure: Ten-year government bond yields (nominal) Daily Percent Date UK Germany Japan 3 January 2005 4.54 3.66 ND 4 January 2005 4.53 3.64 1.40 5 January 2005 4.56 3.67 1.38 6 January 2005 4.54 3.64 1.39 7 January 2005 4.51 3.60 1.40 10 January 2005 4.51 3.59 ND 11 January 2005 4.51 3.59 1.39 12 January 2005 4.53 3.61 1.37 13 January 2005 4.49 3.56 1.38 14 January 2005 4.50 3.57 1.38 17 January 2005 4.49 3.54 1.39 18 January 2005 4.55 3.56 1.36 19 January 2005 4.55 3.52 1.35 20 January 2005 4.61 3.58 1.35 21 January 2005 4.62 3.58 1.35 24 January 2005 4.59 3.55 1.35 25 January 2005 4.56 3.52 1.34 26 January 2005 4.60 3.57 1.34 27 January 2005 4.64 3.60 1.34 28 January 2005 4.59 3.55 1.31 31 January 2005 4.61 3.54 1.32 1 February 2005 4.57 3.52 1.30 2 February 2005 4.58 3.54 1.28 3 February 2005 4.61 3.56 1.31 4 February 2005 4.54 3.50 1.32 7 February 2005 4.51 3.49 1.31 8 February 2005 4.49 3.48 1.32 9 February 2005 4.51 3.45 1.37 10 February 2005 4.50 3.44 1.39 11 February 2005 4.53 3.46 ND 14 February 2005 4.57 3.49 1.44 15 February 2005 4.58 3.50 1.44 16 February 2005 4.56 3.50 1.41 17 February 2005 4.64 3.59 1.39 18 February 2005 4.69 3.66 1.40 21 February 2005 4.71 3.67 1.40 22 February 2005 4.73 3.69 1.44 23 February 2005 4.73 3.67 1.40 24 February 2005 4.75 3.70 1.39 25 February 2005 4.78 3.73 1.42 28 February 2005 4.74 3.70 1.46 1 March 2005 4.79 3.73 1.48 2 March 2005 4.84 3.78 1.48 3 March 2005 4.81 3.76 1.49 4 March 2005 4.80 3.74 1.52 7 March 2005 4.78 3.68 1.50 8 March 2005 4.83 3.70 1.50 9 March 2005 4.86 3.76 1.50 10 March 2005 4.86 3.76 1.48 11 March 2005 4.87 3.78 1.48 14 March 2005 4.86 3.78 1.50 15 March 2005 4.80 3.73 1.47 16 March 2005 4.81 3.72 1.47 17 March 2005 4.80 3.68 1.42 18 March 2005 4.83 3.71 1.42 21 March 2005 4.84 3.72 ND 22 March 2005 4.80 3.69 1.42 23 March 2005 4.82 3.72 1.41 24 March 2005 4.81 3.70 1.38 25 March 2005 4.81 3.71 1.36 28 March 2005 4.81 3.71 1.36 29 March 2005 4.79 3.70 1.36 30 March 2005 4.74 3.68 1.36 31 March 2005 4.70 3.62 1.31 1 April 2005 4.72 3.59 1.34 4 April 2005 4.72 3.60 1.33 5 April 2005 4.70 3.59 1.36 6 April 2005 4.70 3.59 1.38 7 April 2005 4.65 3.56 1.36 8 April 2005 4.69 3.58 1.36 11 April 2005 4.69 3.56 1.36 12 April 2005 4.70 3.56 1.34 13 April 2005 4.67 3.52 1.34 14 April 2005 4.66 3.53 1.34 15 April 2005 4.61 3.48 1.30 18 April 2005 4.58 3.46 1.27 19 April 2005 4.61 3.46 1.28 20 April 2005 4.59 3.46 1.26 21 April 2005 4.61 3.49 1.27 22 April 2005 4.59 3.46 1.28 25 April 2005 4.58 3.45 1.26 26 April 2005 4.56 3.43 1.25 27 April 2005 4.55 3.41 1.26 28 April 2005 4.55 3.40 1.24 29 April 2005 4.56 3.43 ND 2 May 2005 4.53 3.40 1.23 3 May 2005 4.52 3.38 ND 4 May 2005 4.55 3.42 ND 5 May 2005 4.53 3.40 1.23 6 May 2005 4.57 3.43 1.22 9 May 2005 4.57 3.43 1.28 10 May 2005 4.52 3.37 1.28 11 May 2005 4.46 3.34 1.28 12 May 2005 4.41 3.33 1.28 13 May 2005 4.37 3.31 1.28 16 May 2005 4.35 3.31 1.30 17 May 2005 4.38 3.31 1.30 18 May 2005 4.35 3.28 1.28 19 May 2005 4.35 3.34 1.27 20 May 2005 4.40 3.38 1.27 23 May 2005 4.38 3.36 1.29 24 May 2005 4.33 3.30 1.26 25 May 2005 4.33 3.30 1.23 26 May 2005 4.37 3.34 1.24 27 May 2005 4.39 3.33 1.25 30 May 2005 4.39 3.34 1.23 31 May 2005 4.33 3.29 1.25 1 June 2005 4.30 3.26 1.22 2 June 2005 4.25 3.24 1.22 3 June 2005 4.22 3.18 1.24 6 June 2005 4.28 3.22 1.24 7 June 2005 4.25 3.16 1.23 8 June 2005 4.22 3.13 1.24 9 June 2005 4.25 3.15 1.22 10 June 2005 4.27 3.15 1.22 13 June 2005 4.30 3.19 1.24 14 June 2005 4.32 3.19 1.24 15 June 2005 4.38 3.27 1.24 16 June 2005 4.42 3.34 1.31 17 June 2005 4.41 3.31 1.29 20 June 2005 4.43 3.31 1.28 21 June 2005 4.37 3.23 1.28 22 June 2005 4.27 3.15 1.26 23 June 2005 4.27 3.16 1.23 24 June 2005 4.24 3.13 1.21 27 June 2005 4.20 3.12 1.19 28 June 2005 4.23 3.15 1.21 29 June 2005 4.20 3.14 1.19 30 June 2005 4.20 3.15 1.17 1 July 2005 4.19 3.13 1.18 4 July 2005 4.22 3.17 1.22 5 July 2005 4.27 3.22 1.25 6 July 2005 4.28 3.22 1.24 7 July 2005 4.22 3.19 1.23 8 July 2005 4.21 3.17 1.21 11 July 2005 4.28 3.22 1.24 12 July 2005 4.31 3.23 1.24 13 July 2005 4.31 3.25 1.27 14 July 2005 4.34 3.27 1.25 15 July 2005 4.37 3.31 1.27 18 July 2005 4.30 3.26 1.27 19 July 2005 4.33 3.29 1.27 20 July 2005 4.33 3.29 1.27 21 July 2005 4.34 3.28 1.25 22 July 2005 4.32 3.24 1.23 25 July 2005 4.29 3.22 1.25 26 July 2005 4.32 3.25 1.26 27 July 2005 4.30 3.22 1.29 28 July 2005 4.31 3.23 1.29 29 July 2005 4.30 3.22 1.30 1 August 2005 4.35 3.28 1.34 2 August 2005 4.38 3.33 1.35 3 August 2005 4.39 3.33 1.37 4 August 2005 4.37 3.33 1.38 5 August 2005 4.41 3.37 1.38 8 August 2005 4.40 3.37 1.40 9 August 2005 4.39 3.36 1.40 10 August 2005 4.39 3.34 1.43 11 August 2005 4.40 3.34 1.49 12 August 2005 4.37 3.32 1.44 15 August 2005 4.34 3.28 ND 16 August 2005 4.33 3.26 1.46 17 August 2005 4.29 3.23 1.41 18 August 2005 4.26 3.21 1.41 19 August 2005 4.27 3.20 1.40 22 August 2005 4.28 3.21 1.46 23 August 2005 4.27 3.19 1.44 24 August 2005 4.23 3.16 1.41 25 August 2005 4.21 3.14 1.42 26 August 2005 4.21 3.14 1.40 29 August 2005 4.22 3.14 1.35 30 August 2005 4.20 3.17 1.36 31 August 2005 4.18 3.12 1.33 1 September 2005 4.14 3.08 1.32 2 September 2005 4.16 3.07 1.33 5 September 2005 4.15 3.05 1.34 6 September 2005 4.19 3.07 1.31 7 September 2005 4.19 3.08 1.32 8 September 2005 4.19 3.07 1.33 9 September 2005 4.17 3.05 1.34 12 September 2005 4.22 3.11 1.37 13 September 2005 4.21 3.11 1.37 14 September 2005 4.18 3.09 1.36 15 September 2005 4.19 3.11 1.35 16 September 2005 4.22 3.12 1.36 19 September 2005 4.24 3.11 ND 20 September 2005 4.21 3.08 1.36 21 September 2005 4.17 3.03 1.38 22 September 2005 4.17 3.03 1.36 23 September 2005 4.20 3.06 ND 26 September 2005 4.28 3.12 1.40 27 September 2005 4.27 3.11 1.41 28 September 2005 4.28 3.14 1.44 29 September 2005 4.27 3.16 1.49 30 September 2005 4.25 3.14 1.48 3 October 2005 4.29 3.18 1.50 4 October 2005 4.29 3.18 1.57 5 October 2005 4.27 3.17 1.50 6 October 2005 4.26 3.18 1.48 7 October 2005 4.27 3.19 1.51 10 October 2005 4.26 3.16 ND 11 October 2005 4.25 3.17 1.54 12 October 2005 4.30 3.21 1.53 13 October 2005 4.39 3.27 1.57 14 October 2005 4.39 3.27 1.57 17 October 2005 4.41 3.29 1.57 18 October 2005 4.40 3.29 1.55 19 October 2005 4.37 3.27 1.48 20 October 2005 4.41 3.29 1.55 21 October 2005 4.37 3.23 1.50 24 October 2005 4.36 3.24 1.49 25 October 2005 4.41 3.31 1.52 26 October 2005 4.43 3.38 1.55 27 October 2005 4.41 3.40 1.52 28 October 2005 4.36 3.41 1.51 31 October 2005 4.34 3.39 1.54 1 November 2005 4.34 3.42 1.56 2 November 2005 4.41 3.46 1.56 3 November 2005 4.44 3.47 ND 4 November 2005 4.44 3.49 1.60 7 November 2005 4.43 3.50 1.63 8 November 2005 4.43 3.49 1.60 9 November 2005 4.41 3.50 1.56 10 November 2005 4.43 3.52 1.57 11 November 2005 4.43 3.51 1.57 14 November 2005 4.41 3.50 1.52 15 November 2005 4.34 3.51 1.47 16 November 2005 4.21 3.43 1.49 17 November 2005 4.23 3.44 1.46 18 November 2005 4.27 3.54 1.46 21 November 2005 4.22 3.48 1.48 22 November 2005 4.24 3.50 1.47 23 November 2005 4.24 3.47 ND 24 November 2005 4.20 3.42 1.43 25 November 2005 4.20 3.43 1.43 28 November 2005 4.21 3.42 1.46 29 November 2005 4.21 3.42 1.44 30 November 2005 4.25 3.46 1.43 1 December 2005 4.18 3.40 1.45 2 December 2005 4.22 3.41 1.50 5 December 2005 4.26 3.42 1.56 6 December 2005 4.26 3.40 1.56 7 December 2005 4.28 3.39 1.54 8 December 2005 4.25 3.38 1.54 9 December 2005 4.33 3.44 1.56 12 December 2005 4.30 3.42 1.60 13 December 2005 4.30 3.40 1.59 14 December 2005 4.29 3.37 1.54 15 December 2005 4.29 3.38 1.50 16 December 2005 4.24 3.34 1.53 19 December 2005 4.20 3.34 1.54 20 December 2005 4.18 3.35 1.52 21 December 2005 4.21 3.40 1.55 22 December 2005 4.19 3.36 1.55 23 December 2005 4.18 3.33 ND 28 December 2005 4.12 3.30 1.52 29 December 2005 4.12 3.33 1.50 30 December 2005 4.10 3.31 1.47 2 January 2006 4.10 3.33 ND 3 January 2006 4.11 3.33 ND 4 January 2006 4.07 3.29 1.44 5 January 2006 4.07 3.27 1.43 6 January 2006 4.08 3.26 1.44 9 January 2006 4.11 3.26 ND 10 January 2006 4.14 3.29 1.43 11 January 2006 4.12 3.30 1.46 12 January 2006 4.08 3.27 1.45 13 January 2006 4.06 3.26 1.45 17 January 2006 3.99 3.27 1.43 18 January 2006 3.98 3.28 1.44 19 January 2006 4.04 3.34 1.48 20 January 2006 4.04 3.38 1.47 23 January 2006 4.02 3.38 1.44 24 January 2006 4.03 3.37 1.44 25 January 2006 4.11 3.43 1.46 26 January 2006 4.17 3.49 1.51 27 January 2006 4.20 3.48 1.55 30 January 2006 4.18 3.47 1.54 31 January 2006 4.15 3.47 1.55 1 February 2006 4.19 3.52 1.56 2 February 2006 4.20 3.51 1.56 3 February 2006 4.18 3.49 1.58 6 February 2006 4.19 3.49 1.55 7 February 2006 4.22 3.51 1.57 8 February 2006 4.22 3.50 1.56 9 February 2006 4.16 3.48 1.55 10 February 2006 4.18 3.48 1.59 13 February 2006 4.19 3.49 1.55 14 February 2006 4.16 3.50 1.59 15 February 2006 4.21 3.51 1.55 16 February 2006 4.17 3.51 1.56 17 February 2006 4.13 3.45 1.50 20 February 2006 4.12 3.44 1.51 21 February 2006 4.13 3.45 1.52 22 February 2006 4.11 3.42 1.51 23 February 2006 4.13 3.48 1.54 24 February 2006 4.17 3.49 1.59 27 February 2006 4.22 3.53 1.60 28 February 2006 4.19 3.49 1.58 1 March 2006 4.17 3.51 1.60 2 March 2006 4.23 3.57 1.64 3 March 2006 4.26 3.59 1.62 6 March 2006 4.26 3.59 1.64 7 March 2006 4.26 3.60 1.65 8 March 2006 4.29 3.64 1.60 9 March 2006 4.31 3.65 1.60 10 March 2006 4.34 3.69 1.68 13 March 2006 4.35 3.71 1.71 14 March 2006 4.31 3.65 1.68 15 March 2006 4.33 3.69 1.73 16 March 2006 4.31 3.66 1.73 17 March 2006 4.37 3.69 1.72 20 March 2006 4.34 3.66 1.74 21 March 2006 4.35 3.67 1.74 22 March 2006 4.32 3.64 1.73 23 March 2006 4.34 3.67 1.72 24 March 2006 4.33 3.63 1.74 27 March 2006 4.34 3.64 1.70 28 March 2006 4.40 3.73 1.71 29 March 2006 4.39 3.76 1.78 30 March 2006 4.39 3.79 1.79 31 March 2006 4.40 3.77 1.78 3 April 2006 4.42 3.82 1.86 4 April 2006 4.42 3.84 1.86 5 April 2006 4.39 3.85 1.84 6 April 2006 4.43 3.90 1.88 7 April 2006 4.41 3.90 1.88 10 April 2006 4.44 3.89 1.88 11 April 2006 4.45 3.88 1.89 12 April 2006 4.46 3.89 1.89 13 April 2006 4.54 3.95 1.94 14 April 2006 4.54 3.96 1.96 17 April 2006 4.54 3.96 1.97 18 April 2006 4.53 3.95 1.97 19 April 2006 4.51 3.95 1.89 20 April 2006 4.51 3.93 1.91 21 April 2006 4.55 3.95 1.92 24 April 2006 4.58 3.94 1.89 25 April 2006 4.63 3.99 1.92 26 April 2006 4.68 4.00 1.95 27 April 2006 4.65 3.97 1.99 28 April 2006 4.63 3.95 1.93 1 May 2006 4.61 3.95 1.89 2 May 2006 4.64 3.98 1.94 3 May 2006 4.67 4.01 ND 4 May 2006 4.70 4.03 ND 5 May 2006 4.68 4.00 ND 8 May 2006 4.71 4.02 1.98 9 May 2006 4.71 4.03 1.95 10 May 2006 4.69 3.99 2.00 11 May 2006 4.73 4.07 1.97 12 May 2006 4.74 4.08 1.99 15 May 2006 4.68 4.02 2.00 16 May 2006 4.62 3.98 1.96 17 May 2006 4.67 4.08 1.92 18 May 2006 4.58 4.03 1.94 19 May 2006 4.61 3.99 1.92 22 May 2006 4.56 3.92 1.83 23 May 2006 4.63 3.93 1.81 24 May 2006 4.59 3.89 1.84 25 May 2006 4.54 3.88 1.87 26 May 2006 4.55 3.88 1.87 29 May 2006 4.55 3.89 1.87 30 May 2006 4.57 3.94 1.85 31 May 2006 4.59 3.98 1.84 1 June 2006 4.64 4.00 1.93 2 June 2006 4.59 3.93 1.90 5 June 2006 4.60 3.97 1.86 6 June 2006 4.66 3.99 1.92 7 June 2006 4.64 4.01 1.88 8 June 2006 4.61 3.93 1.86 9 June 2006 4.57 3.93 1.85 12 June 2006 4.55 3.91 1.84 13 June 2006 4.52 3.87 1.78 14 June 2006 4.54 3.90 1.78 15 June 2006 4.62 3.95 1.79 16 June 2006 4.61 3.94 1.81 19 June 2006 4.67 3.98 1.83 20 June 2006 4.72 4.00 1.86 21 June 2006 4.72 4.01 1.85 22 June 2006 4.74 4.06 1.86 23 June 2006 4.75 4.08 1.87 26 June 2006 4.74 4.09 1.90 27 June 2006 4.74 4.09 1.90 28 June 2006 4.74 4.10 1.90 29 June 2006 4.72 4.07 1.91 30 June 2006 4.71 4.07 1.92 3 July 2006 4.74 4.09 1.96 4 July 2006 4.69 4.08 1.96 5 July 2006 4.72 4.14 1.98 6 July 2006 4.69 4.11 1.98 7 July 2006 4.65 4.07 1.95 10 July 2006 4.66 4.09 1.97 11 July 2006 4.63 4.05 1.97 12 July 2006 4.67 4.09 1.94 13 July 2006 4.64 4.05 1.92 14 July 2006 4.58 3.98 1.87 17 July 2006 4.62 3.99 ND 18 July 2006 4.66 4.01 1.84 19 July 2006 4.63 3.98 1.85 20 July 2006 4.63 3.98 1.82 21 July 2006 4.61 3.96 1.83 24 July 2006 4.61 3.96 1.86 25 July 2006 4.63 3.96 1.88 26 July 2006 4.66 3.98 1.87 27 July 2006 4.62 3.95 1.88 28 July 2006 4.59 3.92 1.93 31 July 2006 4.61 3.92 1.92 1 August 2006 4.62 3.93 1.92 2 August 2006 4.65 3.93 1.90 3 August 2006 4.73 3.97 1.88 4 August 2006 4.71 3.91 1.88 7 August 2006 4.67 3.91 1.84 8 August 2006 4.67 3.90 1.85 9 August 2006 4.68 3.93 1.85 10 August 2006 4.70 3.93 1.90 11 August 2006 4.75 3.98 1.85 14 August 2006 4.76 4.01 1.88 15 August 2006 4.73 3.97 1.86 16 August 2006 4.69 3.93 1.83 17 August 2006 4.66 3.92 1.83 18 August 2006 4.61 3.90 1.85 21 August 2006 4.57 3.86 1.82 22 August 2006 4.54 3.81 1.81 23 August 2006 4.55 3.83 1.80 24 August 2006 4.56 3.81 1.79 25 August 2006 4.55 3.79 1.72 28 August 2006 4.55 3.79 1.69 29 August 2006 4.57 3.83 1.71 30 August 2006 4.55 3.80 1.66 31 August 2006 4.52 3.76 1.65 1 September 2006 4.50 3.75 1.66 4 September 2006 4.53 3.75 1.69 5 September 2006 4.55 3.79 1.71 6 September 2006 4.57 3.83 1.70 7 September 2006 4.57 3.82 1.71 8 September 2006 4.54 3.79 1.73 11 September 2006 4.57 3.80 1.67 12 September 2006 4.61 3.84 1.70 13 September 2006 4.57 3.79 1.67 14 September 2006 4.57 3.79 1.67 15 September 2006 4.58 3.78 1.66 18 September 2006 4.65 3.83 ND 19 September 2006 4.62 3.78 1.69 20 September 2006 4.61 3.77 1.68 21 September 2006 4.58 3.75 1.69 22 September 2006 4.50 3.69 1.63 25 September 2006 4.45 3.66 1.61 26 September 2006 4.46 3.66 1.63 27 September 2006 4.47 3.67 1.65 28 September 2006 4.49 3.69 1.66 29 September 2006 4.52 3.71 1.67 2 October 2006 4.53 3.69 1.72 3 October 2006 4.56 3.73 1.69 4 October 2006 4.53 3.70 1.72 5 October 2006 4.52 3.71 1.73 6 October 2006 4.56 3.75 1.70 9 October 2006 4.56 3.76 ND 10 October 2006 4.61 3.81 1.72 11 October 2006 4.61 3.81 1.74 12 October 2006 4.62 3.80 1.74 13 October 2006 4.65 3.83 1.77 16 October 2006 4.64 3.83 1.78 17 October 2006 4.63 3.80 1.79 18 October 2006 4.65 3.82 1.79 19 October 2006 4.66 3.84 1.79 20 October 2006 4.69 3.84 1.79 23 October 2006 4.70 3.88 1.83 24 October 2006 4.71 3.88 1.81 25 October 2006 4.70 3.88 1.78 26 October 2006 4.66 3.86 1.74 27 October 2006 4.59 3.81 1.74 30 October 2006 4.56 3.79 1.72 31 October 2006 4.51 3.74 1.72 1 November 2006 4.51 3.71 1.71 2 November 2006 4.55 3.74 1.69 3 November 2006 4.59 3.77 ND 6 November 2006 4.61 3.79 1.75 7 November 2006 4.55 3.74 1.75 8 November 2006 4.57 3.76 1.73 9 November 2006 4.54 3.74 1.71 10 November 2006 4.52 3.71 1.70 13 November 2006 4.56 3.74 1.67 14 November 2006 4.53 3.71 1.73 15 November 2006 4.56 3.74 1.70 16 November 2006 4.57 3.75 1.70 17 November 2006 4.56 3.73 1.71 20 November 2006 4.54 3.72 1.68 21 November 2006 4.55 3.72 1.68 22 November 2006 4.55 3.72 1.67 23 November 2006 4.58 3.75 ND 24 November 2006 4.53 3.70 1.66 27 November 2006 4.57 3.72 1.67 28 November 2006 4.54 3.71 1.65 29 November 2006 4.54 3.72 1.69 30 November 2006 4.51 3.69 1.65 1 December 2006 4.47 3.66 1.60 4 December 2006 4.47 3.67 1.62 5 December 2006 4.50 3.68 1.62 6 December 2006 4.50 3.69 1.66 7 December 2006 4.53 3.71 1.67 8 December 2006 4.56 3.73 1.69 11 December 2006 4.60 3.75 1.65 12 December 2006 4.62 3.74 1.64 13 December 2006 4.64 3.75 1.61 14 December 2006 4.68 3.78 1.63 15 December 2006 4.68 3.80 1.66 18 December 2006 4.71 3.83 1.68 19 December 2006 4.73 3.86 1.63 20 December 2006 4.71 3.86 1.62 21 December 2006 4.72 3.88 1.62 22 December 2006 4.73 3.88 1.60 25 December 2006 4.73 3.88 1.60 26 December 2006 4.73 3.88 1.57 27 December 2006 4.78 3.92 1.64 28 December 2006 4.79 3.95 1.66 29 December 2006 4.74 3.95 1.68 1 January 2007 4.74 3.94 ND 2 January 2007 4.76 3.94 ND 3 January 2007 4.79 3.95 ND 4 January 2007 4.77 3.93 1.71 5 January 2007 4.80 3.98 1.71 8 January 2007 4.79 3.97 ND 9 January 2007 4.80 4.00 1.73 10 January 2007 4.81 4.02 1.75 11 January 2007 4.86 4.01 1.74 12 January 2007 4.90 4.06 1.74 15 January 2007 4.90 4.05 1.74 16 January 2007 4.89 4.04 1.74 17 January 2007 4.90 4.04 1.69 18 January 2007 4.91 4.06 1.70 19 January 2007 4.91 4.05 1.66 22 January 2007 4.89 4.02 1.65 23 January 2007 4.90 4.02 1.65 24 January 2007 4.91 4.04 1.66 25 January 2007 4.96 4.08 1.66 26 January 2007 4.99 4.09 1.69 29 January 2007 5.01 4.12 1.72 30 January 2007 4.99 4.11 1.70 31 January 2007 4.98 4.10 1.69 1 February 2007 5.00 4.09 1.71 2 February 2007 5.00 4.06 1.72 5 February 2007 4.99 4.03 ND 6 February 2007 4.98 4.03 1.75 7 February 2007 4.96 4.03 1.74 8 February 2007 4.92 4.05 1.73 9 February 2007 4.97 4.09 1.69 12 February 2007 4.99 4.11 ND 13 February 2007 4.96 4.13 1.73 14 February 2007 4.95 4.10 1.72 15 February 2007 4.86 4.04 1.73 16 February 2007 4.88 4.05 1.70 19 February 2007 4.89 4.07 1.71 20 February 2007 4.91 4.06 1.70 21 February 2007 4.89 4.05 1.69 22 February 2007 4.94 4.09 1.67 23 February 2007 4.89 4.05 1.67 26 February 2007 4.84 4.00 1.65 27 February 2007 4.80 3.96 1.64 28 February 2007 4.80 3.96 1.63 1 March 2007 4.79 3.95 1.65 2 March 2007 4.78 3.94 1.67 5 March 2007 4.75 3.92 1.63 6 March 2007 4.77 3.92 1.63 7 March 2007 4.77 3.92 1.63 8 March 2007 4.78 3.93 1.63 9 March 2007 4.82 3.96 1.61 12 March 2007 4.81 3.93 1.62 13 March 2007 4.77 3.91 1.61 14 March 2007 4.74 3.88 1.58 15 March 2007 4.79 3.91 1.59 16 March 2007 4.78 3.91 1.59 19 March 2007 4.81 3.93 1.58 20 March 2007 4.83 3.91 1.57 21 March 2007 4.83 3.93 1.59 22 March 2007 4.87 3.95 1.55 23 March 2007 4.90 4.00 1.62 26 March 2007 4.91 4.00 1.65 27 March 2007 4.94 4.02 1.64 28 March 2007 4.93 4.03 1.67 29 March 2007 4.96 4.05 1.64 30 March 2007 4.97 4.06 1.65 2 April 2007 4.98 4.07 1.65 3 April 2007 5.02 4.10 1.65 4 April 2007 4.99 4.07 1.69 5 April 2007 5.00 4.09 1.68 6 April 2007 5.00 4.10 1.67 9 April 2007 5.00 4.10 1.69 10 April 2007 5.02 4.13 1.68 11 April 2007 5.02 4.14 1.64 12 April 2007 5.06 4.18 1.67 13 April 2007 5.10 4.23 1.66 16 April 2007 5.08 4.21 1.69 17 April 2007 5.09 4.18 1.69 18 April 2007 5.04 4.15 1.70 19 April 2007 5.07 4.20 1.67 20 April 2007 5.07 4.20 1.68 23 April 2007 5.05 4.18 ND 24 April 2007 5.06 4.16 1.67 25 April 2007 5.06 4.19 1.65 26 April 2007 5.09 4.22 1.65 27 April 2007 5.12 4.22 1.62 30 April 2007 5.04 4.15 ND 1 May 2007 5.07 4.15 1.62 2 May 2007 5.10 4.21 1.63 3 May 2007 5.13 4.23 ND 4 May 2007 5.11 4.20 ND 7 May 2007 5.11 4.21 1.64 8 May 2007 5.09 4.20 1.65 9 May 2007 5.09 4.21 1.67 10 May 2007 5.10 4.21 1.65 11 May 2007 5.09 4.22 1.65 14 May 2007 5.13 4.27 1.65 15 May 2007 5.14 4.30 1.65 16 May 2007 5.13 4.30 1.65 17 May 2007 5.15 4.31 1.65 18 May 2007 5.17 4.31 1.65 21 May 2007 5.17 4.32 1.65 22 May 2007 5.17 4.34 1.64 23 May 2007 5.23 4.38 1.68 24 May 2007 5.21 4.37 1.69 25 May 2007 5.23 4.39 1.72 28 May 2007 5.23 4.39 1.72 29 May 2007 5.23 4.40 1.74 30 May 2007 5.24 4.40 1.73 31 May 2007 5.25 4.42 1.74 1 June 2007 5.29 4.46 ND 4 June 2007 5.29 4.46 1.78 5 June 2007 5.32 4.50 1.82 6 June 2007 5.28 4.46 1.83 7 June 2007 5.35 4.54 1.86 8 June 2007 5.39 4.57 1.89 11 June 2007 5.38 4.56 1.90 12 June 2007 5.45 4.61 1.92 13 June 2007 5.48 4.64 1.95 14 June 2007 5.47 4.64 1.94 15 June 2007 5.48 4.66 1.91 18 June 2007 5.49 4.66 1.88 19 June 2007 5.47 4.62 1.91 20 June 2007 5.50 4.64 1.88 21 June 2007 5.51 4.65 1.92 22 June 2007 5.52 4.65 1.89 25 June 2007 5.49 4.62 1.88 26 June 2007 5.47 4.60 1.87 27 June 2007 5.42 4.55 1.86 28 June 2007 5.43 4.57 1.90 29 June 2007 5.46 4.57 1.86 2 July 2007 5.42 4.51 1.88 3 July 2007 5.46 4.56 1.85 4 July 2007 5.50 4.60 1.90 5 July 2007 5.52 4.65 1.92 6 July 2007 5.55 4.68 1.93 9 July 2007 5.55 4.67 1.95 10 July 2007 5.45 4.59 1.96 11 July 2007 5.44 4.58 1.88 12 July 2007 5.46 4.62 1.90 13 July 2007 5.49 4.62 1.93 16 July 2007 5.46 4.58 ND 17 July 2007 5.48 4.60 1.92 18 July 2007 5.41 4.54 1.90 19 July 2007 5.41 4.55 1.90 20 July 2007 5.31 4.44 1.89 23 July 2007 5.32 4.44 1.85 24 July 2007 5.31 4.43 1.87 25 July 2007 5.28 4.40 1.86 26 July 2007 5.21 4.33 1.85 27 July 2007 5.20 4.32 1.79 30 July 2007 5.16 4.30 1.81 31 July 2007 5.21 4.35 1.80 1 August 2007 5.20 4.35 1.76 2 August 2007 5.24 4.37 1.80 3 August 2007 5.18 4.32 1.79 6 August 2007 5.19 4.32 1.75 7 August 2007 5.20 4.34 1.74 8 August 2007 5.30 4.42 1.76 9 August 2007 5.25 4.39 1.78 10 August 2007 5.22 4.35 1.72 13 August 2007 5.23 4.37 1.72 14 August 2007 5.18 4.36 1.71 15 August 2007 5.13 4.34 1.65 16 August 2007 5.08 4.25 1.65 17 August 2007 5.08 4.29 ND 20 August 2007 5.07 4.27 1.60 21 August 2007 5.00 4.23 1.56 22 August 2007 5.10 4.29 1.59 23 August 2007 5.06 4.27 1.61 24 August 2007 5.08 4.26 1.59 27 August 2007 5.08 4.25 1.63 28 August 2007 5.05 4.23 1.63 29 August 2007 5.04 4.22 1.59 30 August 2007 5.03 4.23 1.58 31 August 2007 5.04 4.24 1.61 3 September 2007 5.07 4.26 1.65 4 September 2007 5.08 4.28 1.62 5 September 2007 5.04 4.21 1.63 6 September 2007 5.02 4.21 1.62 7 September 2007 4.95 4.12 1.60 10 September 2007 4.90 4.07 1.52 11 September 2007 4.91 4.09 1.54 12 September 2007 4.90 4.13 1.52 13 September 2007 4.93 4.17 1.54 14 September 2007 4.87 4.17 1.56 17 September 2007 4.85 4.15 ND 18 September 2007 4.95 4.22 1.52 19 September 2007 4.99 4.28 1.61 20 September 2007 5.04 4.34 1.63 21 September 2007 5.09 4.36 1.68 24 September 2007 5.07 4.37 ND 25 September 2007 5.03 4.33 1.68 26 September 2007 5.06 4.38 1.67 27 September 2007 5.06 4.38 1.72 28 September 2007 5.01 4.33 1.68 1 October 2007 4.99 4.32 1.66 2 October 2007 4.96 4.32 1.69 3 October 2007 4.97 4.33 1.69 4 October 2007 4.94 4.29 1.71 5 October 2007 4.95 4.35 1.70 8 October 2007 4.95 4.35 ND 9 October 2007 4.89 4.32 1.71 10 October 2007 4.98 4.35 1.72 11 October 2007 5.02 4.39 1.73 12 October 2007 5.08 4.42 1.70 15 October 2007 5.09 4.43 1.72 16 October 2007 5.08 4.44 1.69 17 October 2007 5.03 4.39 1.66 18 October 2007 4.97 4.32 1.64 19 October 2007 4.89 4.22 1.61 22 October 2007 4.88 4.19 1.58 23 October 2007 4.89 4.20 1.61 24 October 2007 4.84 4.15 1.57 25 October 2007 4.85 4.16 1.61 26 October 2007 4.85 4.17 1.63 29 October 2007 4.85 4.17 1.61 30 October 2007 4.87 4.19 1.62 31 October 2007 4.93 4.24 1.61 1 November 2007 4.92 4.21 1.67 2 November 2007 4.87 4.18 1.60 5 November 2007 4.86 4.17 1.58 6 November 2007 4.87 4.18 1.59 7 November 2007 4.83 4.15 1.57 8 November 2007 4.78 4.13 1.55 9 November 2007 4.74 4.09 1.54 12 November 2007 4.75 4.10 1.53 13 November 2007 4.75 4.13 1.50 14 November 2007 4.74 4.15 1.53 15 November 2007 4.68 4.12 1.51 16 November 2007 4.63 4.10 1.48 19 November 2007 4.61 4.05 1.48 20 November 2007 4.62 4.06 1.48 21 November 2007 4.56 4.01 1.44 22 November 2007 4.53 4.03 1.43 23 November 2007 4.56 4.04 ND 26 November 2007 4.56 4.02 1.49 27 November 2007 4.59 4.04 1.51 28 November 2007 4.68 4.11 1.50 29 November 2007 4.58 4.07 1.50 30 November 2007 4.64 4.13 1.47 3 December 2007 4.58 4.07 1.46 4 December 2007 4.53 4.03 1.43 5 December 2007 4.49 4.03 1.49 6 December 2007 4.55 4.08 1.55 7 December 2007 4.64 4.20 1.56 10 December 2007 4.70 4.27 1.57 11 December 2007 4.67 4.24 1.57 12 December 2007 4.80 4.31 1.53 13 December 2007 4.76 4.28 1.51 14 December 2007 4.79 4.30 1.54 17 December 2007 4.76 4.29 1.54 18 December 2007 4.75 4.29 1.53 19 December 2007 4.68 4.28 1.48 20 December 2007 4.59 4.25 1.52 21 December 2007 4.64 4.30 1.55 24 December 2007 4.59 4.31 ND 25 December 2007 4.60 4.30 1.58 26 December 2007 4.60 4.31 1.55 27 December 2007 4.63 4.35 1.54 28 December 2007 4.56 4.31 1.50 31 December 2007 4.51 4.31 ND 1 January 2008 4.50 4.30 ND 2 January 2008 4.44 4.21 ND 3 January 2008 4.45 4.19 ND 4 January 2008 4.41 4.13 1.47 7 January 2008 4.41 4.13 1.46 8 January 2008 4.45 4.15 1.46 9 January 2008 4.40 4.09 1.47 10 January 2008 4.41 4.09 1.44 11 January 2008 4.42 4.09 1.43 14 January 2008 4.41 4.05 ND 15 January 2008 4.40 4.02 1.43 16 January 2008 4.38 3.98 1.39 17 January 2008 4.41 3.98 1.42 18 January 2008 4.44 3.97 1.40 21 January 2008 4.37 3.91 1.37 22 January 2008 4.50 3.99 1.32 23 January 2008 4.42 3.89 1.35 24 January 2008 4.54 4.00 1.39 25 January 2008 4.53 3.98 1.48 28 January 2008 4.49 3.95 1.41 29 January 2008 4.59 3.99 1.48 30 January 2008 4.57 4.02 1.43 31 January 2008 4.48 3.93 1.44 1 February 2008 4.47 3.92 1.43 4 February 2008 4.50 3.93 1.47 5 February 2008 4.41 3.85 1.48 6 February 2008 4.46 3.90 1.42 7 February 2008 4.43 3.88 1.43 8 February 2008 4.43 3.86 1.42 11 February 2008 4.50 3.86 ND 12 February 2008 4.62 3.94 1.41 13 February 2008 4.62 3.96 1.42 14 February 2008 4.64 4.00 1.47 15 February 2008 4.60 3.96 1.46 18 February 2008 4.65 4.01 1.45 19 February 2008 4.64 3.99 1.46 20 February 2008 4.69 4.03 1.43 21 February 2008 4.69 4.01 1.49 22 February 2008 4.69 4.00 1.45 25 February 2008 4.72 4.04 1.48 26 February 2008 4.72 4.07 1.48 27 February 2008 4.70 4.09 1.47 28 February 2008 4.60 4.00 1.42 29 February 2008 4.47 3.89 1.36 3 March 2008 4.45 3.86 1.35 4 March 2008 4.41 3.81 1.37 5 March 2008 4.48 3.86 1.37 6 March 2008 4.39 3.81 1.36 7 March 2008 4.33 3.79 1.34 10 March 2008 4.29 3.73 1.33 11 March 2008 4.36 3.79 1.34 12 March 2008 4.42 3.77 1.33 13 March 2008 4.36 3.76 1.29 14 March 2008 4.33 3.73 1.27 17 March 2008 4.30 3.69 1.29 18 March 2008 4.36 3.76 1.32 19 March 2008 4.31 3.76 1.27 20 March 2008 4.29 3.75 ND 21 March 2008 4.29 3.76 1.28 24 March 2008 4.29 3.76 1.26 25 March 2008 4.43 3.88 1.26 26 March 2008 4.44 3.88 1.28 27 March 2008 4.50 3.92 1.28 28 March 2008 4.41 3.94 1.28 31 March 2008 4.35 3.90 1.28 1 April 2008 4.45 3.97 1.36 2 April 2008 4.43 3.99 1.37 3 April 2008 4.45 3.98 1.35 4 April 2008 4.45 3.95 1.33 7 April 2008 4.50 4.01 1.34 8 April 2008 4.50 4.02 1.33 9 April 2008 4.51 4.00 1.34 10 April 2008 4.48 3.98 1.34 11 April 2008 4.41 3.91 1.37 14 April 2008 4.43 3.91 1.33 15 April 2008 4.43 3.96 1.34 16 April 2008 4.53 4.04 1.34 17 April 2008 4.65 4.08 1.37 18 April 2008 4.73 4.13 1.39 21 April 2008 4.67 4.12 1.45 22 April 2008 4.69 4.15 1.46 23 April 2008 4.67 4.15 1.44 24 April 2008 4.77 4.18 1.47 25 April 2008 4.78 4.18 1.62 28 April 2008 4.74 4.20 1.60 29 April 2008 4.68 4.14 ND 30 April 2008 4.67 4.12 1.56 1 May 2008 4.62 4.12 1.56 2 May 2008 4.74 4.20 1.61 5 May 2008 4.74 4.16 ND 6 May 2008 4.67 4.13 ND 7 May 2008 4.71 4.18 1.63 8 May 2008 4.62 4.06 1.64 9 May 2008 4.58 4.00 1.56 12 May 2008 4.61 4.01 1.59 13 May 2008 4.71 4.08 1.59 14 May 2008 4.82 4.17 1.70 15 May 2008 4.84 4.20 1.68 16 May 2008 4.77 4.17 1.69 19 May 2008 4.83 4.22 1.66 20 May 2008 4.80 4.18 1.63 21 May 2008 4.88 4.26 1.61 22 May 2008 4.95 4.30 1.67 23 May 2008 4.92 4.26 1.75 26 May 2008 4.93 4.29 1.74 27 May 2008 4.92 4.31 1.78 28 May 2008 4.96 4.35 1.78 29 May 2008 5.03 4.43 1.80 30 May 2008 4.99 4.41 1.79 2 June 2008 4.96 4.35 1.75 3 June 2008 5.04 4.43 1.71 4 June 2008 4.95 4.38 1.74 5 June 2008 5.04 4.47 1.75 6 June 2008 4.99 4.42 1.79 9 June 2008 5.14 4.49 1.73 10 June 2008 5.13 4.52 1.80 11 June 2008 5.13 4.55 1.83 12 June 2008 5.16 4.60 1.80 13 June 2008 5.25 4.64 1.84 16 June 2008 5.21 4.63 1.87 17 June 2008 5.16 4.61 1.83 18 June 2008 5.16 4.61 1.78 19 June 2008 5.24 4.68 1.78 20 June 2008 5.15 4.63 1.76 23 June 2008 5.13 4.60 1.72 24 June 2008 5.15 4.60 1.71 25 June 2008 5.12 4.61 1.69 26 June 2008 5.01 4.52 1.66 27 June 2008 5.04 4.52 1.62 30 June 2008 5.13 4.62 1.62 1 July 2008 5.15 4.61 1.68 2 July 2008 5.13 4.65 1.66 3 July 2008 5.04 4.56 1.66 4 July 2008 4.96 4.50 1.65 7 July 2008 4.92 4.43 1.69 8 July 2008 4.91 4.41 1.62 9 July 2008 4.88 4.41 1.62 10 July 2008 4.87 4.40 1.58 11 July 2008 4.89 4.43 1.60 14 July 2008 4.90 4.40 1.59 15 July 2008 4.86 4.38 1.55 16 July 2008 4.87 4.39 1.58 17 July 2008 4.90 4.44 1.60 18 July 2008 5.04 4.57 1.58 21 July 2008 5.05 4.63 ND 22 July 2008 5.00 4.64 1.62 23 July 2008 5.05 4.66 1.65 24 July 2008 4.98 4.57 1.65 25 July 2008 4.99 4.60 1.58 28 July 2008 4.95 4.53 1.57 29 July 2008 4.90 4.48 1.55 30 July 2008 4.85 4.42 1.54 31 July 2008 4.81 4.36 1.54 Figure: Stock price indexes: Emerging market economies Daily Index(12/30/04=100) Date Brazil (Bovespa) Korea (KOSPI) Mexico (Bolsa) 3 January 2005 98.19 99.75 100.42 4 January 2005 94.85 98.99 98.52 5 January 2005 94.26 98.80 97.09 6 January 2005 93.02 97.25 97.95 7 January 2005 94.47 97.20 96.03 10 January 2005 92.73 97.57 95.97 11 January 2005 93.03 98.70 94.20 12 January 2005 93.56 98.23 95.07 13 January 2005 94.69 98.84 96.10 14 January 2005 95.14 101.02 97.89 17 January 2005 93.58 103.03 98.84 18 January 2005 91.96 102.75 100.47 19 January 2005 92.65 102.27 100.52 20 January 2005 90.13 101.50 98.47 21 January 2005 90.92 102.64 97.72 24 January 2005 92.37 103.03 98.26 25 January 2005 ND 102.14 99.21 26 January 2005 93.64 103.47 100.59 27 January 2005 91.73 103.23 100.14 28 January 2005 91.49 102.87 100.55 31 January 2005 92.95 104.11 100.99 1 February 2005 92.19 103.10 102.87 2 February 2005 93.93 102.85 102.86 3 February 2005 94.95 103.67 103.64 4 February 2005 98.23 104.20 103.69 7 February 2005 ND 105.95 103.92 8 February 2005 ND ND 104.16 9 February 2005 100.45 ND 105.35 10 February 2005 100.84 ND 105.71 11 February 2005 101.81 105.73 105.75 14 February 2005 101.28 107.69 104.60 15 February 2005 101.58 108.14 105.61 16 February 2005 100.72 108.44 105.18 17 February 2005 103.42 108.55 104.81 18 February 2005 102.14 109.84 104.72 21 February 2005 102.51 110.36 104.87 22 February 2005 102.08 109.14 104.26 23 February 2005 103.83 108.09 104.42 24 February 2005 108.55 110.18 105.52 25 February 2005 108.51 111.28 106.95 28 February 2005 107.42 112.89 106.33 1 March 2005 105.85 ND 106.45 2 March 2005 107.65 112.45 106.18 3 March 2005 109.44 112.84 106.28 4 March 2005 111.46 113.06 106.89 7 March 2005 112.44 112.45 107.01 8 March 2005 110.78 111.65 106.05 9 March 2005 108.85 112.60 105.42 10 March 2005 109.05 111.47 103.49 11 March 2005 107.17 114.16 104.35 14 March 2005 107.26 113.81 102.08 15 March 2005 105.31 110.85 101.66 16 March 2005 106.22 110.85 100.99 17 March 2005 107.21 109.39 101.31 18 March 2005 105.33 109.35 100.97 21 March 2005 104.64 109.30 ND 22 March 2005 101.61 109.43 100.72 23 March 2005 100.20 107.91 99.11 24 March 2005 101.93 106.74 ND 25 March 2005 ND 107.74 ND 28 March 2005 100.23 109.13 98.92 29 March 2005 98.65 107.04 97.02 30 March 2005 101.04 106.64 97.57 31 March 2005 101.58 107.79 97.75 1 April 2005 102.20 109.60 98.04 4 April 2005 100.80 109.66 97.11 5 April 2005 99.40 ND 94.85 6 April 2005 98.09 110.28 93.85 7 April 2005 100.43 110.38 96.16 8 April 2005 98.81 110.74 96.63 11 April 2005 98.87 110.05 95.81 12 April 2005 100.04 109.58 96.56 13 April 2005 99.50 109.53 95.80 14 April 2005 95.37 106.47 94.33 15 April 2005 94.12 105.73 92.09 18 April 2005 94.96 103.25 90.53 19 April 2005 97.59 104.08 92.62 20 April 2005 95.67 104.63 91.32 21 April 2005 ND 104.82 93.02 22 April 2005 94.54 105.01 92.49 25 April 2005 96.32 105.61 95.44 26 April 2005 96.60 105.42 96.98 27 April 2005 96.36 103.82 96.04 28 April 2005 93.29 102.43 94.50 29 April 2005 94.84 101.72 95.02 2 May 2005 94.31 102.51 95.81 3 May 2005 94.35 102.00 95.29 4 May 2005 97.24 103.73 97.49 5 May 2005 97.10 ND 97.31 6 May 2005 97.68 105.02 97.28 9 May 2005 97.21 104.38 96.87 10 May 2005 94.53 104.28 96.37 11 May 2005 94.28 103.07 96.11 12 May 2005 92.06 102.82 95.99 13 May 2005 91.19 103.04 95.21 16 May 2005 93.06 103.70 95.94 17 May 2005 93.19 103.49 95.92 18 May 2005 95.04 103.84 98.14 19 May 2005 94.78 106.27 98.66 20 May 2005 93.61 106.28 99.34 23 May 2005 92.44 106.15 100.47 24 May 2005 93.70 106.22 100.40 25 May 2005 93.44 105.07 100.69 26 May 2005 ND 105.36 101.42 27 May 2005 96.41 107.25 101.25 30 May 2005 97.05 108.16 101.49 31 May 2005 96.22 108.29 99.97 1 June 2005 99.06 108.21 101.35 2 June 2005 101.69 108.37 102.44 3 June 2005 100.65 108.95 101.82 6 June 2005 97.56 ND 101.85 7 June 2005 95.53 108.37 101.38 8 June 2005 94.29 108.96 101.03 9 June 2005 93.46 110.23 101.98 10 June 2005 95.25 110.59 101.90 13 June 2005 95.06 110.56 102.55 14 June 2005 98.27 109.80 102.89 15 June 2005 97.27 111.83 104.11 16 June 2005 98.30 111.97 104.38 17 June 2005 99.67 112.03 105.03 20 June 2005 99.42 111.02 105.71 21 June 2005 98.19 110.50 104.47 22 June 2005 98.02 111.86 103.65 23 June 2005 94.73 112.82 103.25 24 June 2005 95.12 111.89 102.55 27 June 2005 96.30 110.62 103.75 28 June 2005 96.43 111.03 104.27 29 June 2005 95.92 111.51 104.48 30 June 2005 95.63 112.53 103.99 1 July 2005 96.62 113.63 104.17 4 July 2005 95.60 114.04 104.10 5 July 2005 94.19 113.72 105.24 6 July 2005 93.59 113.74 106.33 7 July 2005 93.33 114.61 106.80 8 July 2005 93.23 114.07 106.96 11 July 2005 95.49 116.13 106.47 12 July 2005 97.48 116.51 107.73 13 July 2005 98.70 117.22 107.99 14 July 2005 98.95 118.53 108.61 15 July 2005 96.28 118.27 107.59 18 July 2005 96.66 118.59 107.74 19 July 2005 96.47 120.04 109.24 20 July 2005 98.12 119.92 110.31 21 July 2005 98.65 119.95 110.05 22 July 2005 96.93 119.90 110.41 25 July 2005 93.64 121.63 108.99 26 July 2005 94.93 121.73 108.47 27 July 2005 96.72 122.00 109.29 28 July 2005 99.51 123.31 109.93 29 July 2005 99.41 124.04 111.11 1 August 2005 100.39 124.56 112.44 2 August 2005 102.26 124.88 113.18 3 August 2005 101.98 124.69 112.70 4 August 2005 101.04 124.05 112.67 5 August 2005 101.23 121.59 111.52 8 August 2005 101.97 121.29 112.55 9 August 2005 104.18 122.75 113.14 10 August 2005 103.51 123.32 113.37 11 August 2005 101.67 125.43 113.88 12 August 2005 102.88 126.15 113.14 15 August 2005 104.50 ND 114.45 16 August 2005 103.37 124.67 112.26 17 August 2005 104.66 124.26 112.27 18 August 2005 102.69 121.97 112.73 19 August 2005 101.71 121.65 113.18 22 August 2005 104.06 124.64 113.89 23 August 2005 102.19 124.55 113.49 24 August 2005 101.97 122.13 112.60 25 August 2005 104.60 122.48 112.61 26 August 2005 103.43 121.28 111.38 29 August 2005 104.54 118.67 110.47 30 August 2005 105.37 119.72 108.02 31 August 2005 107.06 120.92 109.83 1 September 2005 106.74 123.49 111.70 2 September 2005 108.10 124.55 113.91 5 September 2005 108.88 124.40 114.56 6 September 2005 110.15 125.31 115.90 7 September 2005 ND 127.58 117.56 8 September 2005 110.05 127.83 116.09 9 September 2005 111.88 128.64 117.30 12 September 2005 111.03 129.29 117.13 13 September 2005 110.22 129.27 116.34 14 September 2005 110.89 130.68 117.37 15 September 2005 112.10 130.55 118.97 16 September 2005 113.82 131.05 ND 19 September 2005 114.81 ND 120.73 20 September 2005 114.75 132.93 120.01 21 September 2005 117.72 133.57 121.33 22 September 2005 117.11 133.94 120.76 23 September 2005 119.46 131.25 120.67 26 September 2005 118.88 134.66 121.57 27 September 2005 117.86 135.02 121.85 28 September 2005 119.55 137.13 122.37 29 September 2005 119.13 137.43 122.15 30 September 2005 120.57 136.29 124.30 3 October 2005 121.61 ND 123.77 4 October 2005 119.42 138.72 122.86 5 October 2005 115.14 137.00 121.22 6 October 2005 111.57 134.22 117.57 7 October 2005 114.42 134.05 119.11 10 October 2005 115.58 136.97 119.26 11 October 2005 116.86 138.88 119.10 12 October 2005 ND 135.84 116.46 13 October 2005 114.06 133.21 115.08 14 October 2005 113.64 132.84 114.84 17 October 2005 115.44 131.30 117.84 18 October 2005 110.96 132.40 116.32 19 October 2005 111.84 128.71 116.53 20 October 2005 108.20 129.72 114.28 21 October 2005 111.37 132.10 114.92 24 October 2005 113.89 132.22 118.41 25 October 2005 112.60 131.85 118.50 26 October 2005 113.49 131.60 120.80 27 October 2005 111.21 130.19 119.04 28 October 2005 111.92 127.32 120.13 31 October 2005 115.26 129.26 121.52 1 November 2005 117.95 132.71 122.78 2 November 2005 ND 134.88 122.58 3 November 2005 118.72 135.95 121.82 4 November 2005 117.91 136.39 122.61 7 November 2005 118.16 136.00 122.94 8 November 2005 118.23 136.92 122.84 9 November 2005 117.06 137.02 123.23 10 November 2005 117.29 137.78 124.55 11 November 2005 116.47 140.20 124.43 14 November 2005 115.36 140.37 125.64 15 November 2005 ND 139.95 124.87 16 November 2005 116.36 141.44 125.77 17 November 2005 118.67 141.68 126.89 18 November 2005 118.73 142.00 127.58 21 November 2005 118.76 141.62 129.29 22 November 2005 120.20 138.91 130.06 23 November 2005 121.94 143.10 128.88 24 November 2005 121.94 144.18 129.16 25 November 2005 121.85 144.35 130.15 28 November 2005 119.70 144.40 129.82 29 November 2005 120.82 142.80 128.73 30 November 2005 121.84 144.82 129.78 1 December 2005 124.51 145.77 132.12 2 December 2005 125.33 146.23 132.25 5 December 2005 124.83 146.79 133.17 6 December 2005 126.83 147.45 134.36 7 December 2005 125.04 147.86 132.97 8 December 2005 123.99 147.80 132.71 9 December 2005 125.67 147.05 135.36 12 December 2005 125.86 148.81 ND 13 December 2005 127.57 149.17 137.40 14 December 2005 128.38 148.93 139.21 15 December 2005 126.71 149.31 138.20 16 December 2005 127.09 147.45 136.77 19 December 2005 125.99 149.50 136.22 20 December 2005 126.23 149.68 136.34 21 December 2005 127.95 151.15 137.11 22 December 2005 127.93 150.78 137.01 23 December 2005 127.24 151.75 137.27 26 December 2005 127.11 152.64 137.07 27 December 2005 127.39 153.31 137.50 28 December 2005 126.50 152.71 136.41 29 December 2005 127.71 153.96 137.51 ND ND 137.27 2 January 2006 30 December 2005 127.91 155.07 138.22 3 January 2006 131.85 155.69 142.66 4 January 2006 133.62 156.50 143.96 5 January 2006 133.36 155.76 143.49 6 January 2006 135.42 157.69 144.48 9 January 2006 134.89 157.19 146.50 10 January 2006 133.80 155.85 145.83 11 January 2006 137.24 155.60 147.74 12 January 2006 136.58 156.55 145.93 13 January 2006 137.03 158.08 145.65 16 January 2006 139.46 158.70 146.18 17 January 2006 137.88 155.10 142.57 18 January 2006 136.68 151.01 140.85 19 January 2006 140.70 151.87 142.82 20 January 2006 140.08 147.87 141.47 23 January 2006 139.84 144.82 142.24 24 January 2006 142.77 148.10 145.55 25 January 2006 ND 149.86 145.48 26 January 2006 145.11 150.99 148.18 27 January 2006 144.38 154.54 146.17 30 January 2006 145.98 ND 145.34 31 January 2006 146.52 156.25 145.79 1 February 2006 146.91 153.58 147.76 2 February 2006 142.40 153.41 146.97 3 February 2006 142.24 148.84 145.44 6 February 2006 142.47 149.75 ND 7 February 2006 139.57 148.71 143.92 8 February 2006 139.33 146.33 141.96 9 February 2006 140.79 147.52 142.79 10 February 2006 141.15 149.03 141.10 13 February 2006 137.86 147.42 137.90 14 February 2006 139.82 148.25 138.97 15 February 2006 142.16 145.53 140.10 16 February 2006 146.04 146.70 142.32 17 February 2006 146.67 148.76 142.50 20 February 2006 147.12 150.49 142.98 21 February 2006 145.69 150.29 142.63 22 February 2006 146.00 149.63 144.81 23 February 2006 146.61 151.94 147.41 24 February 2006 147.39 152.45 147.28 27 February 2006 ND 153.46 145.39 28 February 2006 ND 153.09 144.24 1 March 2006 149.56 ND 146.96 2 March 2006 149.36 152.66 147.30 3 March 2006 149.79 148.33 147.97 6 March 2006 146.41 150.10 146.44 7 March 2006 142.85 146.96 143.04 8 March 2006 142.35 146.67 141.87 9 March 2006 138.62 146.35 141.19 10 March 2006 140.82 147.34 142.04 13 March 2006 140.45 149.37 144.24 14 March 2006 143.31 148.04 146.05 15 March 2006 145.99 148.90 146.50 16 March 2006 145.66 149.12 147.79 17 March 2006 145.25 149.69 149.16 20 March 2006 145.84 150.31 150.99 21 March 2006 142.76 149.19 ND 22 March 2006 144.49 146.20 151.12 23 March 2006 143.05 146.47 148.48 24 March 2006 143.44 147.47 149.12 27 March 2006 143.69 148.49 148.25 28 March 2006 140.03 148.60 145.97 29 March 2006 143.12 148.75 147.53 30 March 2006 144.21 149.36 148.16 31 March 2006 144.88 151.75 148.61 3 April 2006 147.80 154.00 151.40 4 April 2006 148.12 154.66 152.40 5 April 2006 149.08 155.01 153.68 6 April 2006 149.96 155.93 153.21 7 April 2006 148.60 156.53 150.15 10 April 2006 146.87 156.07 150.73 11 April 2006 144.68 154.71 150.09 12 April 2006 146.69 154.43 148.99 13 April 2006 145.37 156.90 ND 14 April 2006 ND 159.92 ND 17 April 2006 146.82 158.79 151.38 18 April 2006 151.06 159.28 152.83 19 April 2006 152.46 160.49 153.70 20 April 2006 151.83 160.08 154.06 21 April 2006 ND 161.99 155.56 24 April 2006 151.74 159.72 155.75 25 April 2006 151.69 159.74 157.00 26 April 2006 154.26 161.98 158.59 27 April 2006 151.74 162.13 157.23 28 April 2006 154.08 158.47 159.20 2 May 2006 156.57 160.16 162.54 3 May 2006 156.20 160.19 163.16 4 May 2006 156.42 160.84 164.19 5 May 2006 158.10 ND 163.76 8 May 2006 158.48 162.09 166.62 9 May 2006 160.25 161.89 168.27 10 May 2006 159.38 161.97 167.95 11 May 2006 155.93 163.49 165.28 12 May 2006 153.50 161.31 163.12 15 May 2006 149.91 157.82 159.79 16 May 2006 150.47 154.27 160.78 17 May 2006 146.17 156.43 156.24 18 May 2006 144.32 152.37 155.89 19 May 2006 144.04 153.17 155.62 22 May 2006 139.32 149.41 149.35 23 May 2006 137.84 148.44 147.16 24 May 2006 136.63 148.83 145.01 25 May 2006 143.41 144.63 149.63 26 May 2006 147.46 147.61 151.02 29 May 2006 145.61 148.36 150.37 30 May 2006 139.00 147.08 145.28 31 May 2006 139.45 ND 144.02 1 June 2006 144.10 144.55 147.50 2 June 2006 144.84 146.11 149.76 5 June 2006 140.25 145.28 146.16 6 June 2006 139.55 ND 144.95 7 June 2006 134.61 141.40 141.98 8 June 2006 135.28 136.52 140.78 9 June 2006 133.89 137.92 136.86 12 June 2006 128.09 138.39 130.98 13 June 2006 125.39 134.37 128.41 14 June 2006 125.75 136.37 129.56 15 June 2006 ND 136.11 138.27 16 June 2006 131.31 140.88 139.12 19 June 2006 129.40 139.71 135.57 20 June 2006 128.39 136.82 137.11 21 June 2006 131.88 136.98 140.00 22 June 2006 131.00 138.27 140.25 23 June 2006 132.31 137.13 143.00 26 June 2006 132.20 138.19 142.58 27 June 2006 131.22 139.25 138.96 28 June 2006 132.98 138.26 139.58 29 June 2006 139.28 140.97 145.80 30 June 2006 139.83 144.56 147.64 3 July 2006 142.61 144.50 154.69 4 July 2006 142.64 143.53 156.76 5 July 2006 138.87 142.85 150.47 6 July 2006 139.46 141.08 154.58 7 July 2006 137.81 142.19 152.90 10 July 2006 137.96 145.02 151.90 11 July 2006 139.54 145.15 150.90 12 July 2006 138.30 144.73 149.74 13 July 2006 134.96 143.43 144.39 14 July 2006 134.94 140.09 141.33 17 July 2006 133.10 ND 142.17 18 July 2006 134.10 137.67 145.62 19 July 2006 140.42 137.70 153.23 20 July 2006 136.84 142.12 150.44 21 July 2006 135.56 141.90 150.57 24 July 2006 138.28 141.01 153.74 25 July 2006 140.02 142.84 154.85 26 July 2006 139.69 142.77 153.55 27 July 2006 140.81 144.69 155.29 28 July 2006 142.70 144.78 156.16 31 July 2006 141.54 144.86 154.96 1 August 2006 140.63 143.69 154.01 2 August 2006 142.34 144.56 155.34 3 August 2006 142.96 144.21 156.24 4 August 2006 144.48 145.61 156.95 7 August 2006 143.90 143.93 157.40 8 August 2006 143.53 146.34 156.86 9 August 2006 142.22 146.77 154.70 10 August 2006 142.59 145.58 154.59 11 August 2006 141.03 144.22 156.33 14 August 2006 139.55 144.56 156.46 15 August 2006 142.37 ND 158.42 16 August 2006 143.83 146.84 161.16 17 August 2006 143.38 148.20 161.71 18 August 2006 143.35 148.57 162.29 21 August 2006 141.85 147.52 160.86 22 August 2006 140.01 149.00 161.83 23 August 2006 135.56 147.89 159.94 24 August 2006 136.65 146.86 160.01 25 August 2006 137.26 148.38 161.89 28 August 2006 138.85 148.22 163.69 29 August 2006 138.58 150.08 164.10 30 August 2006 138.62 149.72 164.48 31 August 2006 138.31 150.99 162.31 1 September 2006 142.50 151.43 163.41 4 September 2006 143.89 151.69 164.90 5 September 2006 142.65 151.94 163.90 6 September 2006 140.13 151.47 161.66 7 September 2006 ND 150.81 160.64 8 September 2006 139.56 151.23 160.35 11 September 2006 136.56 148.91 158.94 12 September 2006 137.98 148.23 162.72 13 September 2006 139.52 148.80 164.40 14 September 2006 138.01 151.66 164.50 15 September 2006 138.07 151.92 166.16 18 September 2006 139.27 153.40 167.06 19 September 2006 136.99 153.36 167.01 20 September 2006 134.36 152.52 168.42 21 September 2006 132.96 152.56 165.77 22 September 2006 132.84 150.50 164.94 25 September 2006 133.50 151.26 167.13 26 September 2006 136.73 150.01 168.04 27 September 2006 137.83 151.80 167.70 28 September 2006 139.28 153.08 168.52 29 September 2006 139.14 153.07 169.15 2 October 2006 141.46 153.39 166.71 3 October 2006 139.09 ND 166.79 4 October 2006 144.10 150.91 170.46 5 October 2006 144.97 ND 172.16 6 October 2006 144.83 ND 172.34 9 October 2006 146.61 147.27 172.06 10 October 2006 147.56 148.27 173.68 11 October 2006 146.29 147.95 172.62 12 October 2006 ND 148.65 174.74 13 October 2006 148.30 150.53 176.18 16 October 2006 149.75 151.43 176.97 17 October 2006 148.49 150.83 175.80 18 October 2006 147.68 151.16 177.45 19 October 2006 148.57 151.14 178.65 20 October 2006 147.51 152.27 179.15 23 October 2006 149.74 152.35 179.83 24 October 2006 150.78 152.52 179.51 25 October 2006 151.02 153.08 180.42 26 October 2006 151.34 153.32 180.14 27 October 2006 150.13 152.81 175.52 30 October 2006 148.50 151.37 172.49 31 October 2006 149.88 152.31 177.71 1 November 2006 152.43 153.40 177.68 2 November 2006 ND 154.45 ND 3 November 2006 154.35 154.46 178.66 6 November 2006 157.45 153.94 183.00 7 November 2006 156.70 154.86 181.86 8 November 2006 157.79 154.04 184.53 9 November 2006 155.81 156.20 184.61 10 November 2006 155.44 155.79 184.69 13 November 2006 155.01 155.89 186.51 14 November 2006 157.62 157.09 187.28 15 November 2006 ND 157.66 187.49 16 November 2006 157.13 157.46 187.11 17 November 2006 156.62 157.63 186.57 20 November 2006 ND 156.51 ND 21 November 2006 158.69 156.92 189.58 22 November 2006 160.00 158.78 190.26 23 November 2006 160.59 158.41 190.69 24 November 2006 159.40 158.69 191.17 27 November 2006 156.19 159.07 188.47 28 November 2006 156.68 157.54 187.72 29 November 2006 160.21 158.78 191.04 30 November 2006 160.07 159.86 192.48 1 December 2006 157.76 160.10 ND 4 December 2006 162.83 159.22 194.37 5 December 2006 164.75 158.56 197.35 6 December 2006 164.51 157.80 197.52 7 December 2006 163.80 157.41 197.70 8 December 2006 164.06 155.20 198.61 11 December 2006 165.28 155.23 199.16 12 December 2006 164.22 153.69 ND 13 December 2006 165.23 154.40 198.09 14 December 2006 167.03 158.32 199.43 15 December 2006 166.42 158.71 198.61 18 December 2006 166.09 159.97 199.38 19 December 2006 166.40 159.36 197.56 20 December 2006 166.06 160.98 195.81 21 December 2006 165.62 160.33 196.99 22 December 2006 165.50 160.45 196.11 26 December 2006 166.45 160.05 198.21 27 December 2006 169.97 159.07 202.00 28 December 2006 169.77 160.11 202.76 ND ND 203.94 2 January 2007 29 December 2006 173.24 160.20 205.61 3 January 2007 169.66 157.31 205.26 4 January 2007 168.04 155.96 204.85 5 January 2007 161.26 154.67 201.53 8 January 2007 163.50 153.01 202.65 9 January 2007 160.35 153.40 198.81 10 January 2007 161.61 151.33 199.60 11 January 2007 162.89 152.39 202.39 12 January 2007 164.51 154.97 202.98 15 January 2007 163.84 155.25 204.18 16 January 2007 162.71 155.12 204.19 17 January 2007 163.14 153.97 204.79 18 January 2007 162.15 154.39 201.35 19 January 2007 165.78 151.86 202.13 22 January 2007 166.26 152.18 203.82 23 January 2007 168.64 152.14 206.73 24 January 2007 170.58 154.37 210.80 25 January 2007 ND 154.29 207.42 26 January 2007 169.54 153.06 208.55 29 January 2007 166.33 152.15 206.91 30 January 2007 168.13 153.00 209.24 31 January 2007 170.41 151.82 212.52 1 February 2007 171.07 154.36 214.69 2 February 2007 171.77 157.73 215.39 5 February 2007 172.87 158.27 ND 6 February 2007 173.12 159.45 216.42 7 February 2007 170.21 159.20 216.86 8 February 2007 171.37 158.90 217.42 9 February 2007 169.05 159.35 215.19 12 February 2007 167.71 157.86 215.69 13 February 2007 172.53 158.32 217.93 14 February 2007 175.58 160.29 220.07 15 February 2007 175.43 161.13 219.75 16 February 2007 175.02 161.71 219.69 19 February 2007 ND ND 220.45 20 February 2007 ND 162.18 220.45 21 February 2007 175.94 162.00 221.42 22 February 2007 177.32 163.56 221.12 23 February 2007 175.66 164.06 219.80 26 February 2007 176.39 164.08 216.26 27 February 2007 164.70 162.36 203.71 28 February 2007 167.55 158.20 205.41 1 March 2007 166.12 ND 205.48 2 March 2007 161.74 157.88 202.96 5 March 2007 157.19 153.60 198.85 6 March 2007 164.98 156.59 203.22 7 March 2007 162.88 157.49 201.90 8 March 2007 165.92 158.93 206.45 9 March 2007 168.47 158.90 209.01 12 March 2007 168.91 160.88 210.21 13 March 2007 163.19 160.29 205.03 14 March 2007 165.25 157.09 206.03 15 March 2007 165.21 159.27 207.29 16 March 2007 163.12 159.38 207.43 19 March 2007 166.87 161.11 ND 20 March 2007 169.30 161.19 211.33 21 March 2007 174.19 161.05 217.60 22 March 2007 173.40 161.68 217.90 23 March 2007 173.81 161.55 218.00 26 March 2007 174.24 161.82 217.13 27 March 2007 172.57 162.21 216.86 28 March 2007 169.81 160.70 216.66 29 March 2007 173.14 161.95 221.33 30 March 2007 174.85 162.13 221.67 2 April 2007 174.06 162.91 224.94 3 April 2007 176.70 163.38 226.30 4 April 2007 177.71 165.57 226.47 5 April 2007 178.07 165.42 ND 6 April 2007 ND 165.66 ND 9 April 2007 178.86 167.54 228.49 10 April 2007 180.08 167.33 227.59 11 April 2007 179.18 168.92 225.76 12 April 2007 180.74 170.28 228.29 13 April 2007 182.95 169.75 229.49 16 April 2007 186.75 171.00 229.16 17 April 2007 186.12 170.62 228.23 18 April 2007 185.94 171.29 227.93 19 April 2007 186.14 168.95 228.35 20 April 2007 188.61 171.12 230.03 23 April 2007 187.67 172.38 228.19 24 April 2007 187.32 173.76 227.81 25 April 2007 189.63 172.51 227.04 26 April 2007 187.31 173.36 226.26 27 April 2007 187.93 172.17 226.49 30 April 2007 186.88 172.14 223.59 2 May 2007 188.85 173.37 225.62 3 May 2007 191.70 174.11 229.42 4 May 2007 193.15 174.99 231.43 7 May 2007 191.94 176.85 229.60 8 May 2007 191.93 176.65 228.03 9 May 2007 195.83 177.85 231.27 10 May 2007 191.76 178.55 228.66 11 May 2007 194.31 178.98 231.78 14 May 2007 192.82 179.23 229.52 15 May 2007 192.85 177.40 228.39 16 May 2007 197.50 178.65 233.96 17 May 2007 197.09 180.33 235.01 18 May 2007 198.80 179.95 236.54 21 May 2007 200.12 181.74 236.79 22 May 2007 199.30 183.37 237.51 23 May 2007 197.79 183.79 238.03 24 May 2007 192.89 ND 233.94 25 May 2007 197.04 183.56 236.72 28 May 2007 198.96 185.05 238.48 29 May 2007 197.41 185.49 236.45 30 May 2007 200.52 185.59 241.97 31 May 2007 199.53 189.85 242.11 1 June 2007 203.93 191.56 246.33 4 June 2007 203.25 193.94 247.49 5 June 2007 202.94 194.46 248.84 6 June 2007 198.69 ND 244.29 7 June 2007 ND 195.67 240.46 8 June 2007 199.76 192.79 242.63 11 June 2007 201.47 191.60 245.46 12 June 2007 197.73 193.08 243.73 13 June 2007 202.30 192.20 245.85 14 June 2007 205.04 197.47 247.63 15 June 2007 208.12 197.81 247.74 18 June 2007 208.92 201.68 248.43 19 June 2007 208.59 201.79 247.25 20 June 2007 206.25 199.10 243.28 21 June 2007 208.64 200.27 245.44 22 June 2007 207.16 197.67 243.99 25 June 2007 206.30 196.19 241.32 26 June 2007 205.57 195.28 237.07 27 June 2007 206.68 193.44 237.53 28 June 2007 206.70 195.53 239.65 29 June 2007 207.63 194.62 240.20 2 July 2007 211.37 197.71 242.28 3 July 2007 212.62 201.52 247.66 4 July 2007 212.61 205.20 248.30 5 July 2007 213.51 206.25 248.12 6 July 2007 215.46 207.72 249.92 9 July 2007 ND 210.24 247.43 10 July 2007 213.32 211.46 244.77 11 July 2007 215.13 210.95 246.10 12 July 2007 219.93 213.16 248.76 13 July 2007 220.05 219.10 249.73 16 July 2007 219.02 217.60 248.80 17 July 2007 220.11 ND 246.59 18 July 2007 219.71 215.50 245.87 19 July 2007 221.88 216.30 247.91 20 July 2007 219.28 221.40 246.15 23 July 2007 221.55 222.46 248.05 24 July 2007 212.99 222.37 242.60 25 July 2007 213.78 223.71 239.83 26 July 2007 205.73 219.16 231.30 27 July 2007 202.02 210.20 233.14 30 July 2007 208.32 212.82 238.27 31 July 2007 206.83 215.79 236.41 1 August 2007 207.03 207.21 231.70 2 August 2007 208.77 206.83 234.37 3 August 2007 201.73 209.48 228.79 6 August 2007 202.67 207.06 229.18 7 August 2007 205.38 207.59 233.18 8 August 2007 210.88 212.45 236.43 9 August 2007 203.96 213.04 230.43 10 August 2007 200.94 204.09 226.86 13 August 2007 200.16 206.41 228.30 14 August 2007 194.35 202.91 222.81 15 August 2007 188.14 ND 216.99 16 August 2007 183.29 188.85 214.31 17 August 2007 185.37 182.84 219.84 20 August 2007 187.84 193.24 219.40 21 August 2007 190.16 193.79 220.29 22 August 2007 197.53 196.39 225.69 23 August 2007 197.92 200.88 227.16 24 August 2007 202.31 199.94 231.65 27 August 2007 202.62 201.25 233.45 28 August 2007 197.15 204.18 226.13 29 August 2007 201.31 203.83 229.10 30 August 2007 201.78 205.57 229.35 31 August 2007 208.57 209.09 234.01 3 September 2007 209.31 210.04 237.48 4 September 2007 210.91 209.25 238.52 5 September 2007 207.69 208.23 237.57 6 September 2007 208.31 210.82 237.62 7 September 2007 ND 210.39 233.27 10 September 2007 200.99 204.91 230.50 11 September 2007 205.83 206.20 232.80 12 September 2007 205.69 202.42 231.91 13 September 2007 209.60 206.27 233.66 14 September 2007 208.70 208.73 232.07 17 September 2007 207.44 208.91 229.74 18 September 2007 216.31 205.22 235.98 19 September 2007 218.60 212.37 235.28 20 September 2007 217.23 213.07 235.07 21 September 2007 220.64 214.22 235.82 24 September 2007 224.15 ND 235.52 25 September 2007 224.68 ND 233.60 26 September 2007 227.95 ND 233.66 27 September 2007 233.06 217.13 235.40 28 September 2007 230.82 217.26 233.61 1 October 2007 237.97 219.07 237.92 2 October 2007 236.74 224.81 242.52 3 October 2007 229.42 ND 240.42 4 October 2007 230.59 223.64 239.64 5 October 2007 237.89 222.79 243.21 8 October 2007 239.20 224.67 245.40 9 October 2007 242.59 224.81 245.22 10 October 2007 241.24 227.82 247.75 11 October 2007 238.41 229.80 246.60 12 October 2007 ND 226.19 250.40 15 October 2007 240.38 227.18 249.34 16 October 2007 235.60 223.88 248.53 17 October 2007 241.23 221.44 252.31 18 October 2007 241.49 223.80 253.19 19 October 2007 232.45 219.90 245.39 22 October 2007 233.68 212.50 246.51 23 October 2007 239.34 217.43 248.52 24 October 2007 239.06 215.80 247.12 25 October 2007 237.98 220.64 245.87 26 October 2007 245.36 226.37 247.80 29 October 2007 248.30 230.26 247.52 30 October 2007 245.77 229.08 245.08 31 October 2007 249.34 230.47 242.57 1 November 2007 244.50 230.28 237.54 2 November 2007 ND 225.39 ND 5 November 2007 240.34 224.99 232.54 6 November 2007 246.23 229.29 234.65 7 November 2007 242.40 228.06 228.10 8 November 2007 242.64 220.95 225.85 9 November 2007 245.53 222.17 224.84 12 November 2007 234.87 214.69 217.34 13 November 2007 240.21 215.74 227.35 14 November 2007 246.72 220.17 228.67 15 November 2007 ND 217.40 224.93 16 November 2007 246.64 215.00 228.48 19 November 2007 237.96 211.34 ND 20 November 2007 ND 208.97 224.00 21 November 2007 231.26 201.69 219.35 22 November 2007 231.53 200.80 219.91 23 November 2007 232.75 197.88 221.39 26 November 2007 225.49 207.09 215.00 27 November 2007 226.87 207.58 216.86 28 November 2007 235.59 204.78 225.75 29 November 2007 237.27 209.57 226.70 30 November 2007 240.52 212.74 229.56 3 December 2007 241.26 212.34 231.08 4 December 2007 242.33 214.06 231.32 5 December 2007 247.85 216.34 237.20 6 December 2007 251.15 218.01 241.02 7 December 2007 250.56 215.90 241.11 10 December 2007 249.83 212.79 240.45 11 December 2007 246.27 214.87 233.85 12 December 2007 247.14 215.14 ND 13 December 2007 239.96 213.85 232.00 14 December 2007 238.37 211.52 231.29 17 December 2007 228.38 205.36 223.37 18 December 2007 233.23 207.77 225.58 19 December 2007 235.61 ND 224.19 20 December 2007 235.59 205.86 224.76 21 December 2007 240.87 209.65 228.54 24 December 2007 ND 214.25 230.20 26 December 2007 245.41 212.82 231.34 27 December 2007 243.45 213.03 228.57 28 December 2007 243.88 211.75 229.01 ND ND 227.75 2 January 2008 31 December 2007 239.79 206.88 221.29 3 January 2008 240.08 206.80 222.54 4 January 2008 233.00 208.04 218.36 7 January 2008 231.99 204.39 217.08 8 January 2008 236.98 203.84 217.97 9 January 2008 239.25 205.87 219.00 10 January 2008 242.46 203.68 224.15 11 January 2008 236.46 198.93 221.49 14 January 2008 237.39 197.10 220.59 15 January 2008 228.69 194.99 215.61 16 January 2008 224.37 190.30 210.84 17 January 2008 217.73 192.38 205.87 18 January 2008 219.52 193.62 205.99 21 January 2008 205.03 187.91 194.97 22 January 2008 214.14 179.59 207.37 23 January 2008 207.03 181.76 212.98 24 January 2008 219.36 185.62 215.17 25 January 2008 ND 188.90 211.12 28 January 2008 223.67 181.62 214.04 29 January 2008 227.24 182.82 217.94 30 January 2008 230.15 177.37 218.19 31 January 2008 227.10 181.34 222.02 1 February 2008 233.16 182.44 226.93 4 February 2008 ND 188.65 ND 5 February 2008 ND 189.37 216.57 6 February 2008 225.10 ND 215.36 7 February 2008 225.09 ND 216.58 8 February 2008 225.51 ND 217.33 11 February 2008 231.50 183.13 221.99 12 February 2008 235.93 183.42 222.61 13 February 2008 238.93 182.13 225.98 14 February 2008 235.98 189.46 224.69 15 February 2008 233.90 189.17 221.65 18 February 2008 239.73 189.33 224.94 19 February 2008 237.81 192.04 222.84 20 February 2008 243.35 188.40 225.35 21 February 2008 243.52 190.24 226.40 22 February 2008 246.63 188.24 227.69 25 February 2008 248.13 190.77 231.04 26 February 2008 248.82 190.77 233.08 27 February 2008 250.02 192.08 234.60 28 February 2008 250.25 193.79 232.33 29 February 2008 242.36 191.05 222.99 3 March 2008 246.18 186.59 227.68 4 March 2008 242.99 187.09 225.63 5 March 2008 246.71 187.19 225.75 6 March 2008 240.40 189.46 221.43 7 March 2008 236.17 185.73 220.63 10 March 2008 229.04 181.40 217.50 11 March 2008 238.08 183.22 227.21 12 March 2008 237.35 185.15 225.80 13 March 2008 237.74 180.33 229.04 14 March 2008 236.64 178.62 223.99 17 March 2008 229.09 175.73 ND 18 March 2008 236.42 177.33 227.59 19 March 2008 224.56 181.07 224.16 20 March 2008 225.17 181.20 ND 21 March 2008 ND 183.69 ND 24 March 2008 228.32 184.76 228.50 25 March 2008 233.75 186.95 231.18 26 March 2008 234.44 187.48 231.77 27 March 2008 231.95 187.10 231.23 28 March 2008 230.77 189.95 232.02 31 March 2008 232.74 190.19 238.37 1 April 2008 239.63 190.00 245.11 2 April 2008 241.88 194.46 242.64 3 April 2008 244.98 196.85 244.35 4 April 2008 246.01 197.17 243.24 7 April 2008 244.98 197.96 244.55 8 April 2008 246.37 195.86 244.64 9 April 2008 242.31 ND 242.26 10 April 2008 242.50 196.96 244.04 11 April 2008 238.91 198.65 241.37 14 April 2008 237.26 194.96 240.52 15 April 2008 239.04 194.46 241.94 16 April 2008 244.89 196.29 246.05 17 April 2008 246.42 197.41 245.10 18 April 2008 247.83 197.77 245.17 21 April 2008 ND 200.96 247.48 22 April 2008 249.70 199.51 247.05 23 April 2008 247.93 201.00 245.57 24 April 2008 246.51 200.84 244.79 25 April 2008 248.84 203.67 239.11 28 April 2008 250.71 203.50 236.13 29 April 2008 243.64 202.20 233.41 30 April 2008 259.08 203.75 233.50 2 May 2008 264.80 206.30 235.58 5 May 2008 267.88 ND 238.72 6 May 2008 267.96 207.50 240.76 7 May 2008 263.46 206.94 237.20 8 May 2008 266.15 206.27 237.12 9 May 2008 265.86 203.56 236.53 12 May 2008 268.80 ND 236.24 13 May 2008 269.13 205.69 238.17 14 May 2008 267.32 205.79 241.63 15 May 2008 272.91 210.48 243.22 16 May 2008 277.78 210.83 242.79 19 May 2008 280.34 210.44 245.18 20 May 2008 280.64 209.08 243.09 21 May 2008 275.97 206.21 240.01 22 May 2008 ND 204.86 240.93 23 May 2008 272.76 204.03 239.57 26 May 2008 273.43 200.98 241.46 27 May 2008 271.00 203.73 242.23 28 May 2008 279.25 201.54 244.03 29 May 2008 274.08 205.51 245.49 30 May 2008 277.11 206.72 246.56 2 June 2008 274.46 206.22 243.94 3 June 2008 267.26 203.08 242.84 4 June 2008 262.15 204.68 242.49 5 June 2008 271.83 204.52 244.63 6 June 2008 266.40 ND 240.19 9 June 2008 264.47 201.91 238.52 10 June 2008 258.72 198.05 238.26 11 June 2008 254.98 198.86 234.77 12 June 2008 256.98 194.14 234.99 13 June 2008 256.54 195.03 234.51 16 June 2008 256.85 196.54 234.06 17 June 2008 261.25 195.41 230.75 18 June 2008 256.11 198.02 228.38 19 June 2008 254.20 194.29 230.15 20 June 2008 246.65 193.21 227.73 23 June 2008 246.75 191.49 227.20 24 June 2008 244.95 190.96 225.86 25 June 2008 251.38 191.73 228.01 26 June 2008 244.11 191.72 225.16 27 June 2008 245.54 188.01 225.89 30 June 2008 248.19 186.95 226.66 1 July 2008 242.00 186.01 225.32 2 July 2008 233.26 181.22 221.15 3 July 2008 226.27 179.32 219.49 4 July 2008 226.62 176.13 218.51 7 July 2008 225.56 176.32 218.86 8 July 2008 227.27 171.16 220.15 9 July 2008 ND 169.59 216.64 10 July 2008 230.01 171.60 214.96 11 July 2008 229.61 174.96 212.93 14 July 2008 231.79 173.97 212.18 15 July 2008 232.92 168.47 211.55 16 July 2008 236.89 168.25 215.66 17 July 2008 229.46 170.28 217.57 18 July 2008 229.00 168.54 217.21 21 July 2008 231.99 174.45 215.81 22 July 2008 227.69 174.26 212.76 23 July 2008 226.83 177.67 213.16 24 July 2008 219.25 181.51 207.25 25 July 2008 218.35 178.36 208.85 28 July 2008 217.09 178.40 206.13 29 July 2008 221.57 174.93 210.65 30 July 2008 229.03 176.10 211.85 31 July 2008 226.72 177.99 212.31 Note. Last daily observation is for July 31, 2008. As shown in each figure, a vertical line marks the FOMC meeting on June 24-25, 2008. Chart 5 Debt and Money Growth of debt of nonfinancial sectors Percent, s.a.a.r. Total Business Household 2006 8.8 9.7 10.2 2007 8.2 11.7 6.8 Q1 8.0 9.4 7.0 Q2 7.1 11.0 7.2 Q3 9.1 13.7 6.4 Q4 7.5 10.6 6.1 2008 Q1 6.1 8.1 3.3 Q2 3.8 5.8 2.6 Figure: Changes in selected components of debt of nonfinancial business sector* Monthly rate $Billions Period C&I loans Commercial paper Bonds Sum 2005 9.27 -0.23 4.99 14.03 2006 11.52 2.42 18.22 32.16 2007:Q1 12.31 0.19 23.70 36.20 2007:Q2 15.07 2.03 32.34 49.44 2007:Q3 32.85 -3.94 18.51 47.42 2007:Q4 24.47 -0.06 31.06 55.47 2008:Q1 16.13 4.55 13.62 34.30 2008:Q2 9.24 -5.46 21.71 25.48 As shown in the figure, approximate values for July 2008 are as follows: C&I loans: 8. Commercial paper: 6. Bonds: 10. Sum: 24. * Commercial paper and C&I loans are seasonally adjusted, bonds are not. Return to table Figure: Growth of debt of household sector Quarterly, s.a.a.r. Percent Period 1991:Q1 Home mortgage Consumer credit 7.81 0.23 1991:Q2 8.68 -0.97 1991:Q3 3.15 -2.31 1991:Q4 7.50 -1.23 1992:Q1 7.29 0.83 1992:Q2 4.17 -0.93 1992:Q3 6.59 1.57 1992:Q4 6.91 3.03 1993:Q1 3.45 3.88 1993:Q2 6.88 5.10 1993:Q3 5.84 8.18 1993:Q4 5.39 11.86 1994:Q1 5.65 11.97 1994:Q2 5.28 14.78 1994:Q3 4.73 14.37 1994:Q4 6.06 16.63 1995:Q1 4.76 14.58 1995:Q2 5.08 13.84 1995:Q3 5.04 13.93 1995:Q4 4.13 12.36 1996:Q1 7.64 10.00 1996:Q2 6.22 9.19 1996:Q3 4.78 7.37 1996:Q4 5.48 8.47 1997:Q1 6.75 3.28 1997:Q2 5.08 5.75 1997:Q3 7.92 5.69 1997:Q4 4.15 6.92 1998:Q1 8.03 2.97 1998:Q2 7.39 11.49 1998:Q3 6.49 6.92 1998:Q4 9.31 6.81 1999:Q1 10.10 9.10 1999:Q2 8.19 6.63 1999:Q3 9.81 8.31 1999:Q4 8.07 6.27 2000:Q1 7.71 8.50 2000:Q2 8.77 11.22 2000:Q3 8.76 11.01 2000:Q4 8.47 12.83 2001:Q1 8.64 10.06 2001:Q2 12.19 7.09 2001:Q3 10.81 4.59 2001:Q4 8.86 11.86 2002:Q1 11.82 6.10 2002:Q2 12.13 7.20 2002:Q3 13.11 4.54 2002:Q4 13.75 4.51 2003:Q1 12.29 5.59 2003:Q2 15.77 5.79 2003:Q3 14.34 5.17 2003:Q4 11.57 3.95 2004:Q1 11.73 6.35 2004:Q2 13.97 3.43 2004:Q3 13.28 5.64 2004:Q4 13.07 6.02 2005:Q1 10.94 4.93 2005:Q2 13.24 4.79 2005:Q3 13.87 4.56 2005:Q4 12.05 2.48 2006:Q1 13.71 2.65 2006:Q2 12.46 5.48 2006:Q3 9.62 5.07 2006:Q4 7.06 4.55 2007:Q1 7.38 4.76 2007:Q2 7.37 5.63 2007:Q3 6.26 8.15 2007:Q4 5.08 3.99 2008:Q1 3.46 3.23 As shown in the figure, the series end in 2008:Q2. "Consumer credit" ends at about 3.5 percent, and "Home mortgage" ends at about 2 percent. Figure: Funded CLO issuance Monthly Rate Period $Billions 2001 1.15 2002 1.40 2003 1.91 2004 3.02 2005 5.36 2006 9.11 2007:H1 10.13 2007:H2 6.15 2008:Q1 3.62 2008:Q2 1.16 As shown in the figure, the approximate value for July 2008 (projected) is 0.7. Source. JPMorgan. Figure: Growth of M2 s.a.a.r. Period Percent 2005 4.23 2006 4.92 2007:Q1 7.15 2007:Q2 6.16 2007:Q3 4.71 2007:Q4 4.85 2008:Q1 9.50 2008:Q2 5.72 Figure: M2 velocity and opportunity cost Quarterly Period Velocity Opportunity cost* (Percentage points) 1993:Q1 1.912 0.768 1993:Q2 1.924 0.821 1993:Q3 1.932 0.940 1993:Q4 1.957 1.059 1994:Q1 1.983 1.227 1994:Q2 2.011 1.655 1994:Q3 2.034 2.147 1994:Q4 2.068 2.611 1995:Q1 2.084 2.984 1995:Q2 2.076 2.933 1995:Q3 2.066 2.699 1995:Q4 2.071 2.542 1996:Q1 2.074 2.375 1996:Q2 2.090 2.332 1996:Q3 2.094 2.410 1996:Q4 2.106 2.344 1997:Q1 2.110 2.315 1997:Q2 2.121 2.315 1997:Q3 2.122 2.283 1997:Q4 2.112 2.307 1998:Q1 2.101 2.322 1998:Q2 2.080 2.290 1998:Q3 2.076 2.180 1998:Q4 2.060 1.901 1999:Q1 2.050 1.832 1999:Q2 2.045 2.000 1999:Q3 2.047 2.093 1999:Q4 2.064 2.281 2000:Q1 2.056 2.591 2000:Q2 2.064 2.780 2000:Q3 2.049 2.875 2000:Q4 2.037 2.938 2001:Q1 1.997 2.442 2001:Q2 1.968 1.628 2001:Q3 1.925 1.230 2001:Q4 1.900 0.844 2002:Q1 1.886 0.563 2002:Q2 1.888 0.620 2002:Q3 1.871 0.614 2002:Q4 1.844 0.513 2003:Q1 1.835 0.414 2003:Q2 1.819 0.377 2003:Q3 1.824 0.350 2003:Q4 1.849 0.336 2004:Q1 1.866 0.330 2004:Q2 1.858 0.408 2004:Q3 1.867 0.642 2004:Q4 1.869 0.992 2005:Q1 1.886 1.364 2005:Q2 1.897 1.623 2005:Q3 1.909 1.863 2005:Q4 1.907 2.193 2006:Q1 1.919 2.539 2006:Q2 1.932 2.776 2006:Q3 1.929 2.841 2006:Q4 1.915 2.796 2007:Q1 1.904 2.731 2007:Q2 1.905 2.604 2007:Q3 1.911 2.246 2007:Q4 1.902 1.574 2008:Q1 1.872 0.780 As shown in the figure, the series end in 2008:Q2. "Opportunity cost" ends at about 0.3, and "Velocity" ends at about 1.86. * Two-quarter moving average. Return to table † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts† Update on Monetary Policy Strategies Chart 6 Equilibrium Real Federal Funds Rate Figure: Short-Run Estimates with Confidence Intervals Percent Period Lower bound of 90% confidence interval Lower bound of 70% confidence interval Lower bound of range of modelbased estimates Actual real funds rate based on lagged core inflation Greenbookconsistent measure Upper bound of range of modelbased estimates Upper bound of 70% confidence interval Upper bound of 90% confidence interval 1990:Q1 -0.02 0.99 2.01 4.55 ND 4.14 4.57 5.56 1990:Q2 0.16 1.13 2.24 4.50 ND 3.89 4.48 5.45 1990:Q3 0.06 1.04 2.01 3.96 ND 3.51 4.23 5.11 1990:Q4 -0.62 0.35 1.24 3.31 ND 3.17 3.74 4.73 1991:Q1 -0.97 -0.03 1.10 2.13 ND 2.70 3.30 4.26 1991:Q2 -1.09 -0.10 0.82 1.61 ND 2.83 3.36 4.34 1991:Q3 -0.89 0.10 1.19 1.94 ND 2.87 3.46 4.44 1991:Q4 -0.82 0.17 1.13 1.17 ND 2.78 3.43 4.33 1992:Q1 -0.76 0.23 1.11 0.28 ND 3.08 3.65 4.60 1992:Q2 -0.47 0.50 1.43 0.19 ND 3.32 3.91 4.85 1992:Q3 -0.35 0.64 1.55 -0.26 ND 3.28 3.94 4.89 1992:Q4 -0.42 0.53 1.62 -0.24 ND 3.11 3.78 4.68 1993:Q1 -0.23 0.71 1.80 0.01 ND 3.31 3.96 4.87 1993:Q2 -0.46 0.51 1.39 0.34 ND 2.73 3.62 4.49 1993:Q3 -0.66 0.25 1.31 0.35 ND 2.13 3.23 4.10 1993:Q4 -0.63 0.29 1.36 0.52 ND 2.12 3.26 4.11 1994:Q1 -0.28 0.63 1.72 0.94 ND 2.59 3.59 4.45 1994:Q2 -0.29 0.57 1.86 1.76 ND 2.25 3.47 4.32 1994:Q3 -0.27 0.60 1.88 2.39 ND 2.24 3.50 4.36 1994:Q4 -0.47 0.41 1.56 2.74 ND 2.33 3.37 4.24 1995:Q1 -0.06 0.83 2.04 3.37 ND 2.52 3.75 4.63 1995:Q2 -0.18 0.75 1.76 3.58 ND 2.71 3.74 4.59 1995:Q3 -0.31 0.73 1.51 3.47 ND 2.89 3.84 4.71 1995:Q4 -0.21 0.75 1.70 3.69 ND 2.66 3.74 4.59 1996:Q1 -0.14 0.80 1.80 3.34 ND 2.64 3.77 4.59 1996:Q2 -0.19 0.74 1.80 3.25 ND 2.92 3.81 4.63 1996:Q3 0.32 1.29 2.29 3.45 ND 3.51 4.35 5.21 1996:Q4 0.28 1.23 2.21 3.51 ND 3.38 4.29 5.16 1997:Q1 0.37 1.33 2.31 3.45 ND 3.37 4.34 5.18 1997:Q2 0.24 1.18 2.26 3.79 ND 3.11 4.16 5.02 1997:Q3 0.73 1.68 2.58 3.78 4.11 3.96 4.79 5.67 1997:Q4 0.90 1.92 2.73 3.94 4.30 4.58 5.22 6.15 1998:Q1 0.72 1.68 2.57 4.17 4.33 3.77 4.70 5.57 1998:Q2 0.85 1.80 2.66 4.18 4.16 4.09 4.93 5.82 1998:Q3 0.72 1.75 2.54 4.38 4.30 4.45 5.08 5.99 1998:Q4 0.59 1.54 2.66 3.56 3.47 4.26 4.85 5.78 1999:Q1 0.75 1.69 2.53 3.31 3.90 4.84 5.32 6.32 1999:Q2 0.85 1.83 2.89 3.37 4.08 4.84 5.32 6.35 1999:Q3 0.95 1.92 2.81 3.58 4.29 4.76 5.32 6.28 1999:Q4 0.98 1.95 2.94 3.80 4.37 4.21 5.05 5.94 2000:Q1 1.43 2.40 3.31 4.14 5.26 4.30 5.42 6.28 2000:Q2 1.01 1.96 2.89 4.44 5.63 4.13 5.05 5.90 2000:Q3 1.27 2.23 3.18 4.79 5.24 4.44 5.32 6.19 2000:Q4 0.78 1.74 2.62 4.87 4.55 3.73 4.77 5.63 2001:Q1 0.58 1.50 2.50 4.08 3.10 3.80 4.61 5.47 2001:Q2 0.02 0.91 2.06 2.72 1.94 2.93 3.92 4.78 2001:Q3 -0.02 0.85 2.10 1.70 1.72 2.58 3.80 4.69 2001:Q4 -0.62 0.25 1.31 0.20 0.51 2.04 3.23 4.13 2002:Q1 -0.65 0.24 1.14 -0.47 0.66 2.40 3.35 4.24 2002:Q2 -0.41 0.44 1.50 -0.07 0.54 2.24 3.40 4.26 2002:Q3 -0.77 0.10 1.10 -0.03 0.29 1.86 3.08 3.98 2002:Q4 -1.61 -0.60 -0.10 -0.43 -0.01 1.87 2.95 3.89 2003:Q1 -1.73 -0.70 -0.22 -0.29 0.33 2.61 3.25 4.21 2003:Q2 -1.58 -0.59 -0.01 -0.25 0.44 2.61 3.21 4.17 2003:Q3 -0.94 0.03 0.84 -0.34 0.03 2.61 3.35 4.28 2003:Q4 -0.31 0.56 1.52 -0.34 0.18 2.61 3.61 4.50 2004:Q1 -0.14 0.75 2.03 -0.43 0.48 2.59 3.69 4.56 2004:Q2 -0.23 0.68 1.85 -0.74 0.67 2.71 3.69 4.57 2004:Q3 -0.23 0.65 1.79 -0.66 0.90 2.52 3.62 4.48 2004:Q4 -0.44 0.42 1.46 -0.13 1.29 2.22 3.39 4.28 2005:Q1 -0.30 0.58 1.68 0.26 1.88 2.40 3.54 4.42 2005:Q2 -0.23 0.64 1.71 0.70 1.44 2.56 3.64 4.51 2005:Q3 -0.37 0.49 1.50 1.35 1.78 2.30 3.47 4.38 2005:Q4 -0.13 0.73 1.77 1.88 2.16 2.52 3.70 4.59 2006:Q1 -0.35 0.51 1.59 2.30 2.61 2.21 3.47 4.36 2006:Q2 -0.05 0.83 1.89 2.89 2.57 2.80 3.85 4.69 2006:Q3 -0.11 0.75 1.79 3.03 2.61 2.68 3.79 4.69 2006:Q4 -0.26 0.59 1.76 2.87 2.80 2.24 3.51 4.39 2007:Q1 -0.33 0.54 1.80 2.99 2.96 2.16 3.41 4.27 2007:Q2 -0.51 0.33 1.63 2.89 3.22 2.00 3.23 4.12 2007:Q3 -0.10 0.76 1.78 3.09 3.08 2.80 3.76 4.66 2007:Q4 -0.07 0.87 1.65 2.59 2.52 3.39 4.17 5.10 2008:Q1 -0.72 0.23 0.85 1.12 0.17 2.56 3.53 4.48 2008:Q2 -2.11 -1.05 -0.62 0.06 -0.13 2.11 2.80 3.89 2008:Q3 -2.31 -1.41 -0.67 -0.16 0.07 2.30 2.62 3.94 Short-Run and Medium-Run Measures Current Estimate Previous Bluebook Short-Run Measures Single-equation model 2.3 2.2 Small structural model -0.7 -0.6 Large model (FRB/US) -0.1 0.4 Confidence intervals for three model-based estimates 70 percent confidence interval -1.4 - 2.6 90 percent confidence interval -2.3 - 3.9 Greenbook-consistent measure 0.1 -0.1 Single-equation model 2.2 2.2 Small structural model 1.7 1.8 Medium-Run Measures Confidence intervals for two model-based estimates 70 percent confidence interval 1.1 - 3.0 90 percent confidence interval 0.5 - 3.7 TIPS-based factor model 2.0 2.0 Based on lagged core inflation -0.2 -0.2 Based on lagged headline inflation -1.3 -1.3 Based on Greenbook projection of headline inflation -1.1 -1.3 Measures of Actual Real Federal Funds Rate Note: Appendix A provides background information regarding the construction of these measures and confidence intervals. Chart 7 Optimal Policy Under Alternative Inflation Goals 1½ Percent Inflation Goal Figure: Federal funds rate Percent Period Current Bluebook June Bluebook 2008:Q3 2.32 2.34 2008:Q4 2.46 2.51 2009:Q1 2.56 2.62 2009:Q2 2.62 2.69 2009:Q3 2.66 2.74 2009:Q4 2.70 2.79 2010:Q1 2.74 2.83 2010:Q2 2.80 2.88 2010:Q3 2.86 2.93 2010:Q4 2.94 3.01 2011:Q1 3.04 3.10 2011:Q2 3.15 3.20 2011:Q3 3.28 3.32 2011:Q4 3.41 3.45 2012:Q1 3.54 3.58 2012:Q2 3.68 3.71 2012:Q3 3.81 3.84 2012:Q4 3.92 3.96 Figure: Civilian unemployment rate Percent Period Current Bluebook June Bluebook 2008:Q3 5.785 5.497 2008:Q4 5.915 5.612 2009:Q1 5.993 5.676 2009:Q2 6.022 5.692 2009:Q3 6.051 5.723 2009:Q4 5.968 5.676 2010:Q1 5.784 5.622 2010:Q2 5.660 5.563 2010:Q3 5.570 5.499 2010:Q4 5.487 5.433 2011:Q1 5.397 5.369 2011:Q2 5.317 5.307 2011:Q3 5.245 5.245 2011:Q4 5.181 5.184 2012:Q1 5.120 5.122 2012:Q2 5.059 5.058 2012:Q3 5.000 4.995 2012:Q4 4.945 4.938 Figure: Core PCE inflation Four-quarter average Percent Period Current Bluebook June Bluebook 2008:Q3 2.325 2.284 2008:Q4 2.334 2.281 2009:Q1 2.363 2.319 2009:Q2 2.443 2.386 2009:Q3 2.335 2.301 2009:Q4 2.210 2.179 2010:Q1 2.118 2.086 2010:Q2 2.050 2.016 2010:Q3 1.998 1.967 2010:Q4 1.949 1.921 2011:Q1 1.907 1.881 2011:Q2 1.869 1.845 2011:Q3 1.834 1.811 2011:Q4 1.804 1.781 2012:Q1 1.777 1.755 2012:Q2 1.755 1.733 2012:Q3 1.736 1.714 2012:Q4 1.722 1.701 2 Percent Inflation Goal Figure: Federal funds rate A line chart shows two curves, "Current Bluebook" and "June Bluebook", from 2008:Q3 through 2012:Q4. Unit is percent. As shown in the figure, the "Current Bluebook" curve begins just under 2 in 2008:Q3, decreases to about 1.7 by 2009:Q3, then increases to end at about 4.3 in 2012:Q4. The "June Bluebook" curve begins at about 2 in 2008:Q3, decreases to about 1.8 by 2009:Q3, then increases to end at about 4.3 in 2012:Q4. Figure: Civilian unemployment rate Percent Period Current Bluebook June Bluebook 2008:Q3 5.787 5.499 2008:Q4 5.892 5.589 2009:Q1 5.932 5.614 2009:Q2 5.912 5.581 2009:Q3 5.892 5.563 2009:Q4 5.760 5.466 2010:Q1 5.531 5.367 2010:Q2 5.368 5.271 2010:Q3 5.247 5.176 2010:Q4 5.141 5.089 2011:Q1 5.034 5.010 2011:Q2 4.945 4.940 2011:Q3 4.873 4.879 2011:Q4 4.813 4.824 2012:Q1 4.764 4.774 2012:Q2 4.721 4.727 2012:Q3 4.684 4.686 2012:Q4 4.655 4.653 Figure: Core PCE inflation Four-quarter average Percent Period Current Bluebook June Bluebook 2008:Q3 2.370 2.328 2008:Q4 2.404 2.350 2009:Q1 2.456 2.412 2009:Q2 2.560 2.503 2009:Q3 2.440 2.408 2009:Q4 2.325 2.299 2010:Q1 2.249 2.225 2010:Q2 2.201 2.178 2010:Q3 2.166 2.148 2010:Q4 2.138 2.125 2011:Q1 2.117 2.108 2011:Q2 2.099 2.093 2011:Q3 2.083 2.078 2011:Q4 2.071 2.066 2012:Q1 2.061 2.055 2012:Q2 2.054 2.047 2012:Q3 2.049 2.040 2012:Q4 2.047 2.036 Chart 8 The Policy Outlook in an Uncertain Environment Figure: FRB/US Model Simulations of Estimated Outcome-Based Rule Percent Period Lower bound of 90% confidence interval Lower bound of 70% confidence interval Current Bluebook Previous Bluebook Greenbook assumption Upper bound of 70% confidence interval Upper bound of 90% confidence interval 2008:Q2 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2008:Q3 1.50 1.69 1.93 1.94 2.00 2.20 2.30 2008:Q4 1.16 1.49 2.00 1.96 2.00 2.52 2.80 2009:Q1 0.93 1.46 2.24 2.14 2.20 3.05 3.48 2009:Q2 1.00 1.64 2.63 2.55 2.50 3.66 4.22 2009:Q3 1.09 1.84 2.98 2.97 2.75 4.20 4.82 2009:Q4 1.18 1.98 3.22 3.28 2.75 4.57 5.23 2010:Q1 1.27 2.08 3.35 3.47 2.75 4.76 5.49 2010:Q2 1.33 2.16 3.43 3.56 3.00 4.90 5.65 2010:Q3 1.41 2.23 3.50 3.59 3.00 5.01 5.77 2010:Q4 1.41 2.27 3.53 3.57 3.25 5.08 5.90 2011:Q1 1.42 2.32 3.58 3.54 3.25 5.16 5.99 2011:Q2 1.43 2.36 3.62 3.51 3.25 5.18 6.00 2011:Q3 1.43 2.33 3.63 3.50 3.25 5.21 6.08 2011:Q4 1.44 2.31 3.62 3.49 3.50 5.26 6.07 2012:Q1 1.38 2.31 3.62 3.52 3.68 5.30 6.08 2012:Q2 1.39 2.29 3.66 3.57 3.85 5.33 6.17 2012:Q3 1.46 2.36 3.73 3.66 4.00 5.39 6.30 2012:Q4 1.54 2.45 3.81 3.75 4.12 5.49 6.39 Figure: Information from Financial Markets Percent Period Lower bound of 90% confidence interval Upper Upper Lower Expected bound of bound of bound of federal 90% 70% 70% funds confidence confidence confidence rate interval interval interval Previous Bluebook: Lower bound of 90% confidence interval Previous Bluebook: Lower bound of 70% confidence interval Previous Bluebook: Expected federal funds rate Previous Bluebook: Upper bound of 70% confidence interval Previous Bluebook: Upper bound of 90% confidence interval 2008:Q2 ND ND ND ND ND 1.98 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.04 2008:Q3 1.86 1.92 2.02 2.12 2.18 1.81 1.92 2.13 2.32 2.45 2008:Q4 1.66 1.82 2.14 2.43 2.63 1.68 1.94 2.48 2.96 3.28 2009:Q1 1.42 1.68 2.26 2.76 3.11 1.53 1.93 2.83 3.58 4.10 2009:Q2 1.24 1.58 2.41 3.11 3.60 1.36 1.85 3.05 4.03 4.71 2009:Q3 1.17 1.59 2.63 3.49 4.09 1.30 1.85 3.28 4.42 5.22 2009:Q4 1.21 1.69 2.91 3.89 4.58 1.33 1.93 3.53 4.78 5.67 2010:Q1 1.30 1.83 3.18 4.24 4.98 1.42 2.07 3.78 5.10 6.04 2010:Q2 1.41 1.98 3.41 4.51 5.29 1.54 2.22 3.98 5.33 6.29 2010:Q3 1.51 2.11 3.56 4.68 5.47 1.69 2.41 4.20 5.56 6.54 2010:Q4 1.57 2.19 3.65 4.77 5.55 1.78 2.52 4.30 5.65 6.61 2011:Q1 1.63 2.25 3.72 4.84 5.61 1.84 2.60 4.38 5.71 6.65 2011:Q2 1.67 2.31 3.80 4.92 5.69 1.88 2.65 4.43 5.75 6.67 2011:Q3 1.69 2.35 3.87 4.99 5.76 1.89 2.67 4.47 5.78 6.68 2011:Q4 1.70 2.38 3.93 5.07 5.84 1.87 2.68 4.50 5.80 6.68 2012:Q1 1.69 2.40 3.99 5.15 5.92 1.83 2.66 4.51 5.81 6.69 2012:Q2 1.67 2.40 4.05 5.22 6.00 1.79 2.62 4.52 5.82 6.69 2012:Q3 1.64 2.39 4.09 5.28 6.08 1.74 2.58 4.51 5.82 6.70 2012:Q4 1.61 2.38 4.13 5.34 6.15 1.68 2.53 4.50 5.82 6.71 Note: In both panels, the dark and light shading represent the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. In the right hand panel, the thin dotted lines represent the confidence intervals shown in the previous Bluebook. Near-Term Prescriptions of Simple Policy Rules 1½ Percent Inflation Objective 2 Percent Inflation Objective 2008Q3 Taylor (1993) rule Previous Bluebook 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q4 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.8 Taylor (1999) rule Previous Bluebook First-difference rule Previous Bluebook 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.1 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 Memo 2008Q3 2008Q4 Estimated outcome-based rule 1.9 2.1 Estimated forecast-based rule 1.8 1.9 Greenbook assumption 2.0 2.0 Fed funds futures 2.0 2.1 Median expectation of primary dealers 2.0 2.0 Note: Appendix B provides background information regarding the specification of each rule and the methodology used in constructing confidence intervals and near-term prescriptions. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts Short-Run Policy Alternatives Table 1: Alternative Language for the August 2008 FOMC Announcement [Note: In Table 1, strong emphasis (bold) has been added to indicate red underlined text in the original document.] June FOMC Alternative B Alternative C 1. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent. The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2¼ percent. 2. Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth. Overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Nevertheless, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth. 3. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. Policy Decision Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. Although the Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, the possibility that inflation may fail to decline as anticipated is of significant concern. Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. The Committee took this action to better balance the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. Rationale 4. The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished Assessment somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and of Risk inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts Money and Debt Forecasts Table 2: Alternative Growth Rates for M2 (percent, annual rate) 25 bp Easing No Change 25 bp Tightening Greenbook Forecast* Monthly Growth Rates Jan-08 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Feb-08 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 Mar-08 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 Apr-08 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 May-08 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Jun-08 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Jul-08 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Aug-08 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.9 Sep-08 5.8 5.2 4.6 5.2 Oct-08 5.6 4.8 4.0 4.8 Nov-08 5.3 4.5 3.8 4.5 Dec-08 5.0 4.4 3.8 4.4 2007 Q4 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 2008 Q1 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 2008 Q2 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 2008 Q3 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 2008 Q4 5.7 5.0 4.4 5.0 2007 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 2008 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.4 2009 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.2 Aug-08 Dec-08 5.5 4.8 4.1 4.8 2008 Q2 Dec-08 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.9 Quarterly Growth Rates Annual Growth Rates Growth From To * This forecast is consistent with nominal GDP and interest rates in the Greenbook forecast. Return to table Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate Measure Singleequation Model Description The measure of the equilibrium real rate in the single-equation model is based on an estimated aggregate-demand relationship between the current value of the output gap and its lagged values as well as the lagged values of the real federal funds rate. Small Structural Model The small-scale model of the economy consists of equations for six variables: the output gap, the equity premium, the federal budget surplus, the trend growth rate of output, the real bond yield, and the real federal funds rate. Large Model (FRB/US) Estimates of the equilibrium real rate using FRB/US--the staff's large-scale econometric model of the U.S. economy--depend on a very broad array of economic factors, some of which take the form of projected values of the model's exogenous variables. Greenbook- The FRB/US model is used in conjunction with an extended version of the Greenbook forecast to derive a Greenbook-consistent measure. FRB/US is first addconsistent factored so that its simulation matches the extended Greenbook forecast, and then a second simulation is run off this baseline to determine the value of the real federal funds rate that closes the output gap. TIPS-based Yields on TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) reflect investors' expectations of the future path of real interest rates, but also include term and liquidity premiums. The TIPS-based measure of the equilibrium real rate is constructed using the seven-year-ahead instantaneous real forward rate derived from TIPS Factor yields as of the Bluebook publication date. This forward rate is adjusted to remove estimates of the term and liquidity premiums based on a three-factor arbitrageModel free term-structure model applied to TIPS yields, nominal yields, and inflation. Because TIPS indexation is based on the total CPI, this measure is also adjusted for the medium-term difference--projected at 40 basis points--between total CPI inflation and core PCE inflation. Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts† Domestic Developments Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection Note. In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2008:Q3 except as noted. In the upper-left panel that reports the federal funds rate, the dashed line is not apparent because the paths of the federal funds rate in the June and current Greenbooks are the same. Figure: Federal Funds Rate Quarterly average Percent Period Current Greenbook June Greenbook Market forecast 2004:Q1 1.00 1.00 1.00 2004:Q2 1.00 1.00 1.00 2004:Q3 1.42 1.42 1.42 2004:Q4 1.95 1.95 1.95 2005:Q1 2.45 2.45 2.45 2005:Q2 2.94 2.94 2.94 2005:Q3 3.40 3.40 3.40 2005:Q4 3.95 3.95 3.95 2006:Q1 4.42 4.42 4.42 2006:Q2 4.90 4.90 4.90 2006:Q3 5.25 5.25 5.25 2006:Q4 5.25 5.25 5.25 2007:Q1 5.25 5.25 5.25 2007:Q2 5.25 5.25 5.25 2007:Q3 5.20 5.20 5.20 2007:Q4 4.50 4.50 4.50 2008:Q1 3.17 3.17 3.17 2008:Q2 2.10 2.10 2.10 2008:Q3 2.00 2.00 2.00 2008:Q4 2.00 2.00 2.16 2009:Q1 2.20 2.20 2.23 2009:Q2 2.50 2.50 2.51 2009:Q3 2.75 2.75 2.71 2009:Q4 2.75 2.75 2.99 Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates Quarterly average Percent Period Baa corporate rate: Current Greenbook Baa corporate rate: June Greenbook 10-year Treasury rate: Current Greenbook 10-year Treasury rate: June Greenbook 2004:Q1 6.27 6.27 4.01 4.01 2004:Q2 6.66 6.66 4.60 4.60 2004:Q3 6.45 6.45 4.30 4.30 2004:Q4 6.19 6.19 4.18 4.18 2005:Q1 5.97 5.97 4.30 4.30 2005:Q2 5.97 5.97 4.16 4.16 2005:Q3 5.98 5.98 4.22 4.22 2005:Q4 6.34 6.34 4.49 4.49 2006:Q1 6.31 6.31 4.58 4.58 2006:Q2 6.74 6.74 5.07 5.07 2006:Q3 6.59 6.59 4.89 4.89 2006:Q4 6.28 6.28 4.63 4.63 2007:Q1 6.30 6.30 4.68 4.68 2007:Q2 6.49 6.49 4.85 4.85 2007:Q3 6.63 6.63 4.74 4.74 2007:Q4 6.51 6.51 4.27 4.27 2008:Q1 6.75 6.75 3.67 3.67 2008:Q2 6.99 7.00 3.88 3.90 2008:Q3 7.25 7.10 4.05 4.20 2008:Q4 7.15 7.00 4.05 4.20 2009:Q1 7.00 6.85 4.05 4.15 2009:Q2 6.90 6.75 4.05 4.15 2009:Q3 6.75 6.60 4.05 4.10 2009:Q4 6.60 6.50 4.05 4.10 Figure: Equity Prices Quarter-end 2004:Q1 = 100, ratio scale Period Wilshire 5000: Wilshire 5000: Current Greenbook June Greenbook 2004:Q1 100.00 100.00 2004:Q2 100.90 100.90 2004:Q3 98.70 98.70 2004:Q4 108.44 108.44 2005:Q1 105.42 105.42 2005:Q2 107.58 107.58 2005:Q3 111.32 111.32 2005:Q4 113.39 113.39 2006:Q1 119.17 119.17 2006:Q2 116.39 116.39 2006:Q3 120.89 120.89 2006:Q4 129.15 129.15 2007:Q1 130.53 130.53 2007:Q2 137.78 137.78 2007:Q3 139.16 139.16 2007:Q4 134.24 134.24 2008:Q1 120.77 120.77 2008:Q2 118.43 125.69 2008:Q3 117.58 127.81 2008:Q4 119.57 129.99 2009:Q1 122.47 132.84 2009:Q2 126.27 136.96 2009:Q3 130.22 141.22 2009:Q4 134.25 145.61 Figure: House Prices Quarterly 2004:Q1 = 100, ratio scale Period OFHEO purchase-only index: Current Greenbook OFHEO purchase-only index: June Greenbook 2004:Q1 100.00 100.00 2004:Q2 102.12 102.12 2004:Q3 104.56 104.56 2004:Q4 107.05 107.05 2005:Q1 109.39 109.39 2005:Q2 112.02 112.02 2005:Q3 114.73 114.73 2005:Q4 117.20 117.20 2006:Q1 119.17 119.17 2006:Q2 120.32 120.32 2006:Q3 120.87 120.87 2006:Q4 121.83 121.83 2007:Q1 122.96 122.96 2007:Q2 123.58 123.58 2007:Q3 123.00 123.00 2007:Q4 121.28 121.28 2008:Q1 119.19 119.19 2008:Q2 117.14 116.98 2008:Q3 114.97 114.75 2008:Q4 112.81 112.55 2009:Q1 110.66 110.38 2009:Q2 108.93 108.63 2009:Q3 107.72 107.38 2009:Q4 107.01 106.65 Note. The projection period begins in 2008:Q2. Figure: Crude Oil Prices Quarterly average Dollars per barrel Period West Texas intermediate: Current Greenbook West Texas intermediate: June Greenbook 2004:Q1 35.25 35.25 2004:Q2 38.34 38.34 2004:Q3 43.89 43.89 2004:Q4 48.31 48.31 2005:Q1 49.68 49.68 2005:Q2 53.09 53.09 2005:Q3 63.08 63.08 2005:Q4 60.03 60.03 2006:Q1 63.34 63.34 2006:Q2 70.53 70.53 2006:Q3 70.44 70.44 2006:Q4 60.04 60.04 2007:Q1 58.02 58.02 2007:Q2 64.97 64.97 2007:Q3 75.48 75.48 2007:Q4 90.75 90.75 2008:Q1 97.91 97.91 2008:Q2 123.88 123.88 2008:Q3 125.84 125.84 2008:Q4 123.17 123.17 2009:Q1 123.95 123.95 2009:Q2 124.04 124.04 2009:Q3 123.67 123.67 2009:Q4 123.27 123.27 Figure: Broad Real Dollar Quarterly average 2004:Q1 = 100 Period Exchange Rate: Exchange Rate: Current Greenbook June Greenbook 2004:Q1 100.00 100.00 2004:Q2 102.33 102.33 2004:Q3 101.46 101.46 2004:Q4 98.10 98.10 2005:Q1 97.13 97.13 2005:Q2 98.36 98.36 2005:Q3 99.41 99.41 2005:Q4 100.53 100.53 2006:Q1 99.01 99.01 2006:Q2 97.79 97.79 2006:Q3 97.72 97.72 2006:Q4 96.29 96.29 2007:Q1 96.24 96.24 2007:Q2 94.32 94.32 2007:Q3 92.38 92.38 2007:Q4 89.32 89.32 2008:Q1 87.46 87.46 2008:Q2 85.97 86.05 2008:Q3 85.87 86.75 2008:Q4 85.28 86.24 2009:Q1 84.81 85.63 2009:Q2 84.26 84.94 2009:Q3 83.67 84.26 2009:Q4 83.07 83.62 Summary of the Near-Term Outlook (Percent change at annual rate except as noted) 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 Measure June GB July GB June GB Real GDP Private domestic final purchases Personal consumption expenditures Residential investment Business fixed investment Government outlays for consumption and investment July GB 1.7 2.7 .9 .7 .5 1.1 .9 -.1 2.2 2.0 2.6 1.6 -23.7 -19.4 -24.8 -24.1 -1.2 3.3 -.9 -2.7 3.1 4.1 1.6 1.5 Contribution to growth (percentage points) Inventory investment -1.5 -1.4 -.9 -.5 Net exports 2.1 2.3 .7 1.0 Projections of Real GDP (Percent change at annual rate from end of preceding period except as noted) 2008 Measure 2009 H1 Real GDP H2 1.8 .6 2.2 Previous 1.4 .7 2.4 Final sales 2.5 -.5 1.4 2.0 -.5 1.9 1.6 -.7 1.2 1.7 -.7 1.5 Previous PCE Previous Residential investment -22.0 Previous -8.3 -25.8 -6.4 1.9 BFI -26.9 -24.2 Previous -2.5 -.6 -.7 7.0 7.5 7.2 7.5 .1 2.4 -3.7 Previous 1.5 -3.0 Imports 1.8 6.4 Previous 1.5 8.1 Exports 1.9 1.6 2.6 Previous -1.1 3.1 Government purchases 1.0 2.8 Contribution to growth (percentage points) Inventory change -.7 1.1 .7 Previous -.6 1.1 .5 Net exports Previous 1.5 .9 .6 1.5 .7 .5 Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity Nonfarm Business Sector (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure Structural labor productivity 1974-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 Capital deepening .7 1.4 .7 .7 .6 .5 .5 Previous .7 1.4 .7 .7 .6 .5 .6 .5 .7 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 Previous .5 .7 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 Labor composition .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Previous Contributions1 Multifactor productivity MemO Potential GDP Previous Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown. 1. Percentage points. Return to table The Outlook for the Labor Market (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure 2006 2007 2008 2009 Output per hour, nonfarm business .8 Nonfarm private payroll employment 2.1 1.8 .8 Previous 2.9 2.9 1.8 2.1 1.7 Labor force participation rate1 .8 -.6 1.0 .4 -.6 .7 2.1 Previous -.8 .9 2.1 Household survey employment .9 1.7 Previous .4 -.3 .8 66.3 66.0 65.9 65.6 66.3 66.0 65.8 65.6 4.4 4.8 5.9 5.9 4.4 4.8 5.6 5.6 .1 .1 -1.3 -1.5 .1 Previous .1 -1.4 -1.5 Civilian unemployment rate1 Previous MemO GDP gap 2 Previous 1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter. Return to table 2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Return to table Inflation Projections (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure PCE chain-weighted price index Previous Food and beverages Previous Energy Previous Excluding food and energy Previous Consumer price index Previous Excluding food and energy Previous GDP chain-weighted price index Previous ECI for compensation of private industry workers 1 Previous Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector Previous Prices of core nonfuel imports Previous 1. December to December. Return to table 2006 2007 2008 2009 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.4 1.9 3.4 4.2 2.1 2.3 4.5 5.4 3.1 2.3 4.5 4.1 2.3 -4.0 19.6 17.4 2.5 -4.0 19.6 28.0 .8 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.9 4.0 4.4 2.5 1.9 4.0 5.0 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.2 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.1 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.1 2.4 3.3 6.9 1.4 2.4 3.3 5.8 1.4 The Long-Term Outlook (Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted) Measure 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Real GDP 2.5 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.2 3.0 Civilian unemployment rate 1 4.8 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.9 PCE prices, total 3.4 3.7 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 Core PCE prices 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 Federal funds rate 1 4.5 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.5 4.1 1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table Alternative Scenarios (Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted) 2008 Measure and scenario 2009 H1 2010 H2 201112 Real GDP Greenbook baseline 1.8 0.6 2.2 3.1 3.1 Severe financial stress 1.8 -0.4 0.5 2.6 3.6 Typical recession 1.8 -1.1 1.5 4.1 3.6 Resilient spending 1.8 3.1 1.8 2.5 2.8 Stronger productivity 1.8 0.8 2.7 3.8 3.7 Costly sectoral reallocation 1.8 -0.5 1.9 3.4 3.3 Inflationary spiral 1.8 0.5 2.2 2.9 2.8 Greenbook baseline 5.3 5.9 5.9 5.5 4.9 Severe financial stress 5.3 6.0 6.7 6.5 5.4 Typical recession 5.3 6.1 6.5 5.9 4.8 Resilient spending 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.0 Stronger productivity 5.3 5.9 5.9 5.3 4.5 Costly sectoral reallocation 5.3 5.5 6.1 5.6 4.9 Inflationary spiral 5.3 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.3 Greenbook baseline 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 Severe financial stress 2.1 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.5 Typical recession 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.5 Resilient spending 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 Stronger productivity 2.1 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 Costly sectoral reallocation 2.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 Inflationary spiral 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 Greenbook baseline 2.1 2.0 2.8 3.3 4.1 Severe financial stress 2.1 1.6 0.8 1.1 3.2 Typical recession 2.1 1.2 1.2 2.7 4.2 Resilient spending 2.1 3.0 3.8 3.5 4.0 Stronger productivity 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.4 4.4 Costly sectoral reallocation 2.1 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.4 Inflationary spiral 2.1 2.0 3.4 4.4 4.9 Unemployment rate1 Core PCE inflation Federal funds rate1 1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2.2 3.1 3.2 3.0 … … Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4) Projection 1.2 Confidence interval Greenbook forecast errors .4-1.9 .6-3.8 1.7-4.5 FRB/US stochastic simulations .4-2.0 .9-3.6 1.5-4.7 1.4-4.9 1.2-4.7 Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4) Projection 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.9 … … Confidence interval Greenbook forecast errors 5.7-6.1 5.2-6.6 4.5-6.5 FRB/US stochastic simulations 5.6-6.2 5.4-6.4 4.8-6.0 4.4-5.8 4.0-5.7 PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4) Projection 3.7 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 3.3-4.1 1.5-3.2 .6-3.1 … … FRB/US stochastic simulations 3.2-4.3 1.6-3.3 .9-2.9 .9-3.0 .8-2.8 Confidence interval Greenbook forecast errors PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4) Projection 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 .9-3.1 … … Confidence interval Greenbook forecast errors 2.0-2.7 1.5-2.9 FRB/US stochastic simulations 2.1-2.6 1.7-2.8 1.4-2.7 1.1-2.6 1.1-2.6 Federal funds rate (percent, Q4) Projection 2.0 2.8 3.3 3.5 4.1 Confidence interval FRB/US stochastic simulations 1.5-2.5 1.5-4.1 2.0-4.8 2.1-5.2 2.7-5.8 Notes: Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1987-2007. Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 19872007 set of model equation residuals. … Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years. Return to table Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios under the Assumption that Monetary Policy Follows an Estimated Taylor Rule Confidence Intervals based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations Figure: Real GDP 4-quarter percent change Period 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook baseline 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound Severe financial stress Typical recession Resilient spending Stronger productivity Costly sectoral reallocation Inflationary spiral 2006:Q1 ND ND 3.31 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q2 ND ND 3.22 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q3 ND ND 2.37 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q4 ND ND 2.60 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q1 ND ND 1.55 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q2 ND ND 1.89 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q3 ND ND 2.84 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q4 ND ND 2.46 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2008:Q1 ND ND 2.55 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2008:Q2 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26 2008:Q3 0.25 0.65 1.22 1.79 2.09 1.04 0.64 1.87 1.24 1.11 1.22 2008:Q4 -0.06 0.42 1.19 1.99 2.45 0.69 0.35 2.45 1.27 0.65 1.16 2009:Q1 -0.19 0.32 1.30 2.36 2.96 0.38 0.22 2.69 1.49 0.66 1.26 2009:Q2 -0.53 0.11 1.22 2.45 3.15 -0.20 -0.05 2.48 1.54 0.49 1.18 2009:Q3 -0.19 0.45 1.64 2.95 3.70 -0.03 0.73 2.08 2.09 1.01 1.59 2009:Q4 0.18 0.92 2.19 3.62 4.39 0.46 1.50 1.82 2.72 1.94 2.15 2010:Q1 0.36 1.20 2.54 4.01 4.78 0.98 2.36 1.83 3.15 2.41 2.47 2010:Q2 0.45 1.32 2.74 4.29 5.17 1.51 3.01 1.99 3.39 2.72 2.61 2010:Q3 0.59 1.48 2.95 4.57 5.53 2.10 3.73 2.23 3.64 3.04 2.76 2010:Q4 0.66 1.55 3.10 4.71 5.81 2.62 4.13 2.46 3.81 3.37 2.86 2011:Q1 0.66 1.59 3.23 4.91 5.89 3.07 4.21 2.71 3.94 3.61 2.94 2011:Q2 0.63 1.53 3.24 4.99 6.01 3.37 4.13 2.80 3.96 3.74 2.93 2011:Q3 0.56 1.54 3.21 4.94 6.01 3.53 3.95 2.81 3.92 3.72 2.88 2011:Q4 0.49 1.42 3.17 4.92 6.00 3.61 3.80 2.81 3.87 3.57 2.84 2012:Q1 0.35 1.36 3.10 4.86 5.91 3.62 3.63 2.75 3.78 3.36 2.77 2012:Q2 0.30 1.27 3.06 4.80 5.83 3.64 3.53 2.73 3.72 3.18 2.75 2012:Q3 0.33 1.24 3.04 4.73 5.77 3.64 3.45 2.73 3.67 3.02 2.74 2012:Q4 0.18 1.20 3.01 4.69 5.81 3.62 3.38 2.73 3.61 2.95 2.74 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook baseline 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound 2006:Q1 ND ND 4.702 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q2 ND ND 4.665 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q3 ND ND 4.657 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q4 ND ND 4.438 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q1 ND ND 4.491 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q2 ND ND 4.507 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q3 ND ND 4.676 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q4 ND ND 4.796 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2008:Q1 ND ND 4.940 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2008:Q2 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 5.318 2008:Q3 5.512 5.610 5.786 5.970 6.063 5.824 5.914 5.647 5.798 5.437 5.785 2008:Q4 5.481 5.634 5.910 6.176 6.330 6.032 6.155 5.575 5.927 5.552 5.916 Figure: Unemployment Rate Percent Period Severe financial stress Typical recession Resilient spending Stronger productivity Costly sectoral reallocation Inflationary spiral 2009:Q1 5.427 5.629 5.981 6.330 6.534 6.232 6.340 5.523 5.995 5.751 5.993 2009:Q2 5.340 5.578 6.003 6.420 6.654 6.419 6.464 5.508 6.005 5.932 6.017 2009:Q3 5.274 5.553 6.027 6.484 6.739 6.613 6.594 5.545 6.011 6.092 6.044 2009:Q4 5.129 5.411 5.942 6.442 6.723 6.703 6.569 5.503 5.900 6.128 5.966 2010:Q1 4.906 5.174 5.757 6.278 6.599 6.647 6.366 5.384 5.687 6.032 5.794 2010:Q2 4.702 5.023 5.632 6.172 6.526 6.612 6.182 5.325 5.529 5.886 5.687 2010:Q3 4.540 4.904 5.543 6.108 6.454 6.570 6.008 5.298 5.406 5.750 5.620 2010:Q4 4.415 4.803 5.460 6.045 6.393 6.499 5.838 5.273 5.288 5.598 5.565 2011:Q1 4.258 4.681 5.370 5.971 6.371 6.391 5.660 5.234 5.165 5.425 5.506 2011:Q2 4.131 4.574 5.288 5.929 6.334 6.267 5.498 5.199 5.050 5.250 5.458 2011:Q3 4.026 4.475 5.214 5.886 6.300 6.132 5.352 5.169 4.943 5.163 5.418 2011:Q4 3.895 4.378 5.144 5.846 6.264 5.989 5.218 5.140 4.844 5.092 5.381 2012:Q1 3.793 4.285 5.078 5.800 6.257 5.843 5.094 5.113 4.752 5.031 5.348 2012:Q2 3.718 4.192 5.013 5.747 6.199 5.692 4.977 5.083 4.663 4.976 5.313 2012:Q3 3.649 4.127 4.949 5.705 6.181 5.541 4.867 5.051 4.581 4.925 5.277 2012:Q4 3.545 4.040 4.890 5.668 6.143 5.393 4.767 5.020 4.507 4.881 5.243 Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy 4-quarter percent change Severe financial stress Typical recession Resilient spending Stronger productivity Costly sectoral reallocation Inflationary spiral 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook baseline 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound 2006:Q1 ND ND 2.039 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q2 ND ND 2.238 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q3 ND ND 2.404 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q4 ND ND 2.291 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q1 ND ND 2.388 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q2 ND ND 2.007 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q3 ND ND 1.922 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q4 ND ND 2.080 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND Period 2008:Q1 ND ND 2.043 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2008:Q2 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2.183 2008:Q3 2.103 2.188 2.332 2.491 2.575 2.335 2.343 2.320 2.333 2.358 2.367 2008:Q4 1.970 2.124 2.348 2.587 2.708 2.358 2.358 2.327 2.317 2.388 2.460 2009:Q1 1.857 2.072 2.382 2.710 2.890 2.400 2.383 2.372 2.314 2.485 2.642 2009:Q2 1.806 2.070 2.469 2.891 3.126 2.494 2.452 2.479 2.357 2.623 2.888 2009:Q3 1.563 1.887 2.360 2.840 3.135 2.387 2.313 2.403 2.199 2.545 2.949 2009:Q4 1.348 1.718 2.236 2.781 3.096 2.256 2.158 2.310 2.049 2.461 2.976 2010:Q1 1.221 1.588 2.144 2.735 3.082 2.150 2.034 2.239 1.934 2.369 2.945 2010:Q2 1.098 1.510 2.076 2.704 3.077 2.062 1.934 2.185 1.845 2.306 2.936 2010:Q3 1.027 1.426 2.022 2.691 3.072 1.983 1.848 2.150 1.772 2.266 2.904 2010:Q4 0.957 1.350 1.972 2.669 3.086 1.904 1.773 2.119 1.710 2.230 2.856 2011:Q1 0.855 1.268 1.927 2.664 3.100 1.826 1.710 2.088 1.654 2.193 2.835 2011:Q2 0.779 1.206 1.886 2.654 3.068 1.749 1.654 2.058 1.606 2.163 2.815 2011:Q3 0.701 1.163 1.851 2.640 3.055 1.675 1.606 2.031 1.565 2.125 2.797 2011:Q4 0.657 1.128 1.821 2.602 3.065 1.606 1.566 2.006 1.532 2.078 2.778 1.092 1.795 2.604 3.044 1.542 1.536 1.983 1.506 2.033 2.763 2012:Q1 0.649 2012:Q2 0.613 1.075 1.774 2.595 3.066 1.483 1.514 1.962 1.487 1.990 2.727 2012:Q3 0.608 1.054 1.757 2.581 3.019 1.431 1.499 1.943 1.474 1.950 2.688 2012:Q4 0.596 1.056 1.745 2.581 3.045 1.385 1.491 1.927 1.466 1.925 2.650 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook baseline 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound 2006:Q1 ND ND 4.46 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q2 ND ND 4.91 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND Figure: Federal Funds Rate Percent Period Severe financial stress Typical recession Resilient spending Stronger productivity Costly sectoral reallocation Inflationary spiral 2006:Q3 ND ND 5.25 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2006:Q4 ND ND 5.25 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q1 ND ND 5.26 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q2 ND ND 5.25 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q3 ND ND 5.07 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2007:Q4 ND ND 4.50 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2008:Q1 ND ND 3.18 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 2008:Q2 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2008:Q3 1.57 1.76 2.00 2.26 2.36 1.88 1.59 2.44 1.96 2.17 2.01 2008:Q4 1.16 1.48 2.00 2.52 2.81 1.62 1.24 3.05 1.94 1.97 2.03 2009:Q1 0.88 1.41 2.20 3.01 3.44 1.43 1.12 3.58 2.13 2.05 2.30 2009:Q2 0.84 1.49 2.50 3.53 4.10 1.26 1.18 3.88 2.43 2.28 2.74 2009:Q3 0.82 1.59 2.75 3.98 4.61 1.07 1.19 3.97 2.69 2.56 3.17 2009:Q4 0.67 1.48 2.75 4.13 4.77 0.72 1.10 3.73 2.71 2.60 3.38 2010:Q1 0.62 1.46 2.75 4.19 4.92 0.49 1.26 3.46 2.74 2.69 3.55 2010:Q2 0.87 1.70 3.00 4.50 5.26 0.63 1.78 3.49 3.02 2.98 3.94 2010:Q3 0.87 1.70 3.00 4.53 5.31 0.65 2.09 3.32 3.06 3.06 4.03 2010:Q4 1.07 1.96 3.25 4.82 5.66 1.01 2.60 3.46 3.35 3.41 4.31 2011:Q1 1.04 1.92 3.25 4.85 5.74 1.17 2.82 3.39 3.38 3.51 4.31 2011:Q2 0.99 1.94 3.25 4.87 5.71 1.36 2.97 3.34 3.42 3.60 4.29 2011:Q3 0.97 1.92 3.25 4.89 5.79 1.56 3.08 3.31 3.45 3.73 4.25 2011:Q4 1.22 2.13 3.50 5.21 6.03 2.00 3.40 3.52 3.73 4.03 4.47 2012:Q1 1.33 2.31 3.68 5.44 6.23 2.36 3.64 3.67 3.94 4.21 4.62 2012:Q2 1.47 2.43 3.85 5.58 6.45 2.69 3.85 3.81 4.13 4.34 4.76 2012:Q3 1.61 2.55 4.00 5.71 6.68 2.97 4.03 3.93 4.30 4.42 4.86 2012:Q4 1.71 2.67 4.12 5.84 6.79 3.21 4.18 4.02 4.42 4.47 4.93 Evolution of the Staff Forecast Figure: Change in Real GDP A line chart shows change in real GDP for "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2007 series begins at about 3.0 at the beginning of 2006, decreases to about 2.1 on September 13, 2006, and fluctuates between about 1.9 and 2.25 through October 24, 2007 and generally increases to end at about 2.5 on July 30, 2008. The 2008 series begins at about 2.4 on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through June 20, 2007, then decreases to about 0.1 in March, and increases to end at about 1.2 on July 30, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 2.25 on September 12, 2007 through January 23, 2008, increases to about 3.0 on March 13, 2008, and then decreases to end at about 2.2 on July 30, 2008. Figure: Unemployment Rate A line shows unemployment rate for "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is percent, fourth quarter. The 2007 series begins at about 5.1 percent on January 25, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on March 22, and increases to about 5.2 on June 21. It then decreases to about 4.7 on June 20, 2007 and stays about the same through December 5, 2007, and then increases to about 4.8 on January 23, 2008, stays about the same to end on July 30, 3008. The 2008 series begins at about 5.2 percent on September 13, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on January 24, 2007, increases to about 5.1 on March 14, and decreases to about 4.8 on June 20, 2007. It then increases to about 5.7 on March 13, 2008, stays about the same on April 23, 2008, and decreases to end at about 5.9 on July 30, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 4.9 percent on September 9, 2007, decreases to about 4.8 on October 24, 2007, then increases to about 5.5 on March 13, 2008, stays about the same on April 23, 2008 and increases to end at about 5.9 on July 30, 2008. Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy A line chart shows three series, "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2007 series begins at about 1.75 percent on January 25, 2006, increases to about 2.3 on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2, decreases to about 1.75 on October 24, 2007, and then increases to about 2.1 on January 23, 2008 and ends at about the same on July 30, 2008. The 2008 series begins at about 2.1 percent on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2, decreases to about 1.9 on September 12, then increases to about 2.25 on March 13, 2008 and ends at about the same on July 30, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 1.9 percent on September 12, 2007 and stays the same through March 13, 2008. It then increases to end at about 2.25 on July 30, 2008. Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment (Percent, annual rate except as noted) Nominal GDP Real GDP PCE price index Core PCE price index Unemployment rate 1 Interval 06/18/08 07/30/08 06/18/08 07/30/08 06/18/08 07/30/08 06/18/08 07/30/08 06/18/08 07/30/08 Quarterly 2007: Q1 4.9 4.9 .6 .6 3.5 3.5 2.4 2.4 4.5 4.5 Q2 6.6 6.6 3.8 3.8 4.3 4.3 1.4 1.4 4.5 4.5 Q3 6.0 6.0 4.9 4.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 4.7 4.7 Q4 3.0 3.0 .6 .6 3.9 3.9 2.5 2.5 4.8 4.8 2008: Q1 3.9 3.7 1.1 1.0 3.6 3.6 2.2 2.3 4.9 4.9 Q2 1.9 3.2 1.7 2.7 4.1 4.1 2.0 1.9 5.3 5.3 Q3 3.9 4.3 .9 .7 5.9 4.7 2.5 2.6 5.5 5.8 Q4 2.7 2.4 .5 .4 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 5.6 5.9 2009: Q1 3.8 4.0 1.4 1.4 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.4 5.7 6.0 Q2 5.1 4.9 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.3 5.7 6.0 Q3 4.9 4.7 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 5.7 6.0 Q4 4.8 4.8 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 5.6 5.9 2007: Q2 5.7 5.7 2.2 2.2 3.9 3.9 1.9 1.9 .1 .1 Q4 4.5 4.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.3 .3 .3 2008: Q2 2.9 3.4 1.4 1.8 3.8 3.9 2.1 2.1 .5 .5 Q4 3.3 3.4 .7 .6 4.5 3.6 2.5 2.6 .3 .6 2009: Q2 4.4 4.4 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.3 .1 .1 Q4 4.9 4.7 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 -.1 -.1 5.4 5.4 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.3 -.5 -.5 Two-quarter 2 Four-quarter 3 2006:Q4 2007:Q4 5.1 5.1 2.5 2.5 3.4 3.4 2.1 2.1 .4 .4 2008:Q4 3.1 3.4 1.0 1.2 4.2 3.7 2.3 2.3 .8 1.1 2009:Q4 4.6 4.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 .0 .0 2006 6.1 6.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.2 4.6 4.6 2007 4.9 4.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.1 4.6 4.6 2008 3.7 3.9 1.7 1.8 3.8 3.7 2.2 2.2 5.3 5.5 Annual 2009 3.9 4.0 1.7 1.6 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.4 5.7 6.0 1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals. Return to table 2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table 3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items (Percent, annual rate except as noted) 2007 2008 2009 20071 20081 20091 Item Q1 Real GDP Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 .6 Final sales 4.9 .6 1.0 2.7 .7 .4 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.2 2.2 .6 Previous 3.8 3.8 4.9 .6 1.1 1.7 .9 .5 1.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.0 2.4 1.3 3.6 4.0 2.4 .9 4.1 1.2 -2.2 .1 2.5 1.9 1.4 2.8 1.0 1.4 1.3 3.6 4.0 2.4 .9 3.2 1.7 -2.6 .6 2.8 2.5 1.6 2.8 .8 1.9 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.1 -.3 1.1 -.1 -3.9 -.7 .8 1.1 1.6 1.8 -.8 .7 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.1 -.4 .5 .9 -4.4 -.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 1.8 -.9 1.3 3.7 1.4 2.8 2.3 1.1 2.0 1.6 -2.8 .8 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.6 .4 1.2 3.7 1.4 2.8 2.3 1.2 2.2 2.6 -3.8 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.6 .5 1.5 Durables 8.8 1.7 4.5 2.0 -6.0 -3.8 3.1 2.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.2 -1.1 3.7 Nondurables 3.0 -.5 2.2 1.2 -.2 4.2 .9 -4.2 .9 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 .1 1.5 Services 3.1 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.1 1.9 1.6 -3.0 .3 .6 .7 1.0 2.8 .9 .7 -16.3 -11.8 -20.5 -25.2 -24.6 -19.4 -24.1 -29.7 -26.0 -1.9 -4.5 1.9 -18.6 -24.5 -8.3 -16.3 -11.8 -20.5 -25.2 -24.7 -23.7 -24.8 -26.9 -22.0 -4.1 .5 2.2 -18.6 -25.0 -6.4 Previous Priv. dom. final purch. Previous Personal cons. expend. Previous Residential investment Previous Business fixed invest. Equipment & software 11.0 9.3 6.0 .6 3.3 -2.7 -2.3 -3.5 -1.3 .8 1.8 7.1 -.3 -.6 2.1 Previous 2.1 11.0 9.3 6.0 -.2 -1.2 -.9 -1.2 -1.3 .8 3.6 4.4 7.1 -.9 1.9 .3 4.7 6.2 3.1 .2 -.4 -3.7 -.3 -2.4 -.1 2.5 4.4 3.6 -1.1 1.1 Previous .3 4.7 6.2 3.1 -1.1 -5.4 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 1.3 4.8 5.7 3.6 -2.2 2.6 Nonres. structures 6.4 26.2 16.4 12.4 1.2 11.1 -.5 -6.2 -5.8 -3.7 -2.5 -3.2 15.1 1.2 -3.8 Previous 6.4 26.2 16.4 12.4 1.7 7.8 -.1 -1.4 -1.4 .0 1.4 2.0 15.1 1.9 .5 -612 -574 -533 -503 -480 -415 -387 -364 -351 -311 -289 -292 -556 -411 -311 -612 -574 -533 -503 -481 -421 -401 -377 -366 -327 -307 -315 -556 -420 -329 Exports 1.1 7.5 19.1 6.5 5.4 10.8 6.8 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.4 7.6 7.5 Imports 3.9 -2.7 4.4 -1.4 -.7 -5.3 -.6 .8 3.4 -2.1 1.5 7.0 1.0 -1.5 2.4 Net exports 2 Previous 2 Govt. cons. & invest. Federal Defense Nondefense State & local Change in bus. inventories 2 Previous Nonfarm 2 Farm2 2 -.5 4.1 3.8 2.0 2.1 4.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.1 2.3 2.4 1.5 -.5 4.1 3.8 2.0 2.1 3.1 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.1 2.3 2.2 1.5 -6.3 Previous 6.0 7.1 .5 4.3 8.1 2.0 3.3 3.6 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.7 4.4 3.0 -10.8 8.5 10.1 -.5 5.6 11.7 2.9 4.4 4.8 4.7 3.5 2.7 1.5 6.1 3.9 3.8 .9 1.1 2.8 1.7 .8 .1 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.1 .9 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.9 2.8 .8 1.9 1.2 .9 .8 .8 .4 .4 2.7 1.2 .6 0 6 31 -18 -20 -57 -70 2 38 36 49 85 5 -36 52 0 6 31 -18 -13 -54 -78 7 28 25 33 66 5 -35 38 -6 1 26 -22 -19 -60 -73 1 38 35 50 87 0 -38 53 5 4 4 2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 0 1 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table 2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items (Percent, annual rate except as noted) 20011 20021 20031 20041 20051 20061 20071 20081 20091 .2 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 1.2 2.2 .2 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 1.0 2.4 1.5 .8 3.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 1.0 1.4 1.5 Item .8 3.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 .8 1.9 Real GDP Previous Final sales Previous Priv. dom. final purch. 1.0 Durables 4.3 3.3 2.4 1.8 -.8 .7 4.1 4.3 3.3 2.4 1.8 -.9 1.3 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.8 3.4 2.6 .4 1.2 2.8 Previous 4.1 1.1 2.8 Personal cons. expend. 1.1 1.0 Previous 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.8 3.4 2.6 .5 1.5 10.8 1.2 8.3 5.6 1.2 6.6 4.2 -1.1 3.7 Nondurables 1.9 2.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 1.5 .1 1.5 Services 1.6 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.8 .9 .7 Residential investment 1.4 7.0 11.7 6.7 6.4 -12.8 -18.6 -24.5 -8.3 1.4 7.0 11.7 6.7 6.4 -12.8 -18.6 -25.0 -6.4 -9.6 -6.5 4.9 7.5 5.1 5.2 7.1 -.3 -.6 -9.6 -6.5 4.9 7.5 5.1 5.2 7.1 -.9 1.9 Previous Business fixed invest. Previous Equipment & software -9.0 -3.4 6.6 9.4 7.1 2.5 3.6 -1.1 1.1 -9.0 -3.4 6.6 9.4 7.1 2.5 3.6 -2.2 2.6 Nonres. structures -11.1 -14.9 .2 2.3 -.3 12.3 15.1 1.2 -3.8 Previous -11.1 -14.9 .2 2.3 -.3 12.3 15.1 1.9 .5 -399 -471 -519 -594 -618 -624 -556 -411 -311 -399 -471 -519 -594 -618 -624 -556 -420 -329 Exports -11.9 3.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 9.3 8.4 7.6 7.5 Imports -7.6 9.7 4.8 11.5 5.1 3.7 1.0 -1.5 2.4 5.0 4.0 1.7 .7 .9 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.5 5.0 4.0 1.7 .7 .9 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.5 Previous Net exports 2 Previous2 Govt. cons. & invest. Previous Federal 6.4 7.8 5.5 2.4 1.3 3.7 1.7 4.4 3.0 Defense 6.5 8.4 7.5 2.5 1.1 5.9 1.5 6.1 3.9 Nondefense 6.3 6.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 -.7 2.1 .9 1.0 4.2 2.1 -.4 -.4 .7 1.8 2.7 1.2 .6 Change in bus. inventories 2 -32 12 14 54 33 40 5 -36 52 2 -32 12 14 54 33 40 5 -35 38 -32 15 14 48 34 42 0 -38 53 0 -2 0 6 -0 -1 4 0 1 State & local Previous Nonfarm Farm 2 2 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table 2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product (Percentage points, annual rate except as noted) 2007 2008 2009 20071 20081 20091 Item Q1 Real GDP .6 Q2 3.8 Q3 4.9 Q4 .6 Q1 1.0 Q2 2.7 Q3 .7 Q4 .4 Q1 1.4 Q2 2.3 Q3 2.4 Q4 2.6 2.5 1.2 2.2 Previous Previous Priv. dom. final purch. Previous Personal cons. expend. Previous 3.8 4.9 .6 1.1 1.7 .9 .5 1.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.0 2.4 1.3 Final sales .6 3.6 4.0 2.4 1.0 4.1 1.2 -2.3 .1 2.4 1.9 1.4 2.8 1.0 1.4 1.3 3.6 4.0 2.4 .9 3.2 1.7 -2.7 .6 2.8 2.5 1.7 2.8 .8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.0 -.3 1.0 -.1 -3.4 -.6 .7 .9 1.4 1.6 -.7 .6 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.0 -.3 .4 .8 -3.9 -.1 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.6 -.8 1.1 2.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 .8 1.4 1.1 -2.1 .6 .8 .9 1.1 1.8 .3 .9 2.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 .8 1.5 1.8 -2.8 .7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 .4 1.1 .7 .1 .4 .2 -.5 -.3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 -.1 .3 Durables Nondurables Services .6 -.1 .5 .3 .0 .9 .2 -.9 .2 .3 .4 .4 .3 .0 .3 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 .8 .7 -1.3 .1 .3 .3 .5 1.2 .4 .3 -.9 -.6 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 -.8 -.9 -1.1 -.9 -.1 -.1 .1 -1.0 -1.0 -.2 -.9 -.6 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -.7 -.1 .0 .1 -1.0 -1.0 -.2 .2 1.1 1.0 .6 .1 .4 -.3 -.2 -.4 -.1 .1 .2 .7 .0 -.1 .2 1.1 1.0 .6 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 .1 .4 .4 .7 -.1 .2 Residential investment Previous Business fixed invest. Previous Equipment & software .0 .3 .4 .2 .0 .0 -.3 .0 -.2 .0 .2 .3 .3 -.1 .1 Previous .0 .3 .4 .2 -.1 -.4 -.1 -.1 -.1 .1 .3 .4 .3 -.2 .2 Nonres. structures .2 .8 .5 .4 .0 .4 .0 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 .5 .0 -.1 Previous .2 .8 .5 .4 .1 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .5 .1 .0 Net exports -.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 .8 2.3 1.0 .8 .4 1.4 .7 -.2 .8 1.2 .6 -.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 .8 2.1 .7 .8 .3 1.4 .7 -.4 .8 1.1 .5 Exports .1 .9 2.1 .8 .7 1.3 .9 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Imports -.6 .5 -.7 .2 .1 1.0 .1 -.2 -.6 .4 -.3 -1.3 -.2 .3 -.4 -.1 .8 .7 .4 .4 .8 .3 .3 .4 .4 .3 .2 .4 .5 .3 -.1 .8 .7 .4 .4 .6 .3 .4 .4 .3 .3 .2 .4 .4 .3 -.5 .4 .5 .0 .3 .6 .1 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .3 .2 -.5 .4 .5 .0 .3 .6 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 .3 .2 .1 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .4 .4 .2 .3 .1 .2 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .3 .2 .1 -.7 .2 .9 -1.8 .0 -1.4 -.5 2.7 1.3 -.1 .5 1.3 -.3 .2 .7 -.7 .2 .9 -1.8 .3 -1.5 -.9 3.1 .8 -.1 .3 1.2 -.3 .3 .5 -.7 .3 .9 -1.7 .2 -1.5 -.5 2.7 1.3 -.1 .5 1.3 -.3 .2 .7 .0 -.1 .0 -.1 -.1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Previous Govt. cons. & invest. Previous Federal Defense Nondefense State & local Change in bus. inventories Previous Nonfarm Farm 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table Changes in Prices and Costs (Percent, annual rate except as noted) 2007 2008 2009 20071 20081 20091 Item Q1 GDP chain-wt. price index Previous PCE chain-wt. price index Previous Energy Previous Food Previous Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4.2 2.6 1.0 2.4 2.7 4.2 2.6 1.0 2.4 3.5 4.3 1.8 3.9 3.5 4.3 1.8 16.1 51.3 16.1 51.3 4.8 4.8 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 .5 3.5 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.7 .2 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.2 3.6 4.1 4.7 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 3.4 3.7 2.4 3.9 3.6 4.1 5.9 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 3.4 4.2 2.1 -6.7 24.9 18.6 28.1 28.4 -2.5 5.9 2.7 1.1 .5 19.6 17.4 2.5 -6.7 24.9 18.6 27.4 61.7 10.0 3.5 .0 -.5 .2 19.6 28.0 .8 4.7 4.7 3.6 4.8 6.5 5.9 4.4 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.4 4.5 5.4 3.1 4.7 4.7 3.6 4.8 6.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.5 4.1 2.3 Ex. food & energy 2.4 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 Previous 2.4 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.7 4.6 2.8 5.0 4.3 5.0 5.9 2.4 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.1 4.0 4.4 2.5 3.7 4.6 2.8 5.0 4.3 4.7 7.6 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.1 4.0 5.0 2.2 Ex. food & energy 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 Previous 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.7 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.4 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.4 1.3 2.7 6.0 1.8 2.8 3.4 1.2 .9 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.3 2.7 6.0 1.8 2.9 2.3 1.2 .8 1.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.9 1.8 2.1 6.4 1.3 3.3 6.6 5.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.1 6.4 1.3 3.3 6.6 4.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.1 5.0 -1.3 -2.5 4.7 2.1 .6 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.4 2.1 2.2 5.0 -1.3 -2.5 4.7 2.0 1.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.3 2.0 CPI Previous ECI, hourly compensation2 Previous2 Nonfarm business sector Output per hour Previous Compensation per hour Previous Unit labor costs Previous 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table 2. Private-industry workers. Return to table Other Macroeconomic Indicators 2007 2008 2009 20071 20081 20091 Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Employment and production Nonfarm payroll employment 2 GDP gap Previous -.1 -.2 -.2 -.1 .2 .2 .3 .4 1.2 -.7 1.0 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 4.8 5.9 5.9 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 4.8 5.6 5.6 .0 .5 .1 -.3 -.3 -.7 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 .1 -1.3 -1.5 -.4 .0 .5 .1 -.3 -.5 -.9 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 .1 -1.4 -1.5 1.5 3.2 3.6 .3 .5 -3.1 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.7 2.4 3.9 2.1 -.1 2.4 1.5 4 .3 -.4 4 .3 4.5 Previous3 .3 4.5 Unemployment rate .4 3 3.2 3.6 .3 -.3 -3.2 1.8 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.4 3.8 2.1 .1 2.7 1.1 4.7 4.0 -.6 -.9 -3.7 .2 -.1 1.1 1.9 2.4 3.9 2.3 -1.1 2.3 Industrial production 5 Previous5 Manufacturing industr. prod. 5 5 1.1 Previous3 4.7 4.0 -.6 -1.2 -3.5 .7 .9 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.8 2.3 -.8 2.6 78.9 79.5 79.8 79.3 78.7 77.6 77.3 77.0 77.0 77.1 77.3 77.8 79.3 77.0 77.8 78.9 Previous Capacity utilization rate - mfg. 3 79.5 79.8 79.3 78.6 77.6 77.4 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.7 78.1 79.3 77.3 78.1 Housing starts 6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 .9 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 1.4 .9 .9 16.3 16.0 15.9 16.1 15.2 14.1 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 16.1 14.4 14.7 4.9 Light motor vehicle sales 6 6.6 6.0 3.0 3.7 3.2 4.3 2.4 4.0 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.1 3.4 4.6 5.4 -.8 4.0 .9 1.4 11.3 -9.2 -2.6 3.5 1.4 1.6 2.7 2.4 .0 2.3 5.4 -.8 4.0 .9 1.7 12.0 -10.4 -2.8 3.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.4 -.2 2.3 1.0 .3 .4 .2 .4 2.6 -.2 -.1 .6 .7 .8 1.1 .2 -.1 1.1 1.0 .3 .4 .2 .5 2.8 -.5 -.3 .4 .4 .4 .5 .2 -.3 .5 4.4 26.8 -4.9 -12.4 -1.3 15.0 2.9 -.5 3.2 2.9 1.6 3.8 2.5 3.8 2.9 11.4 11.9 11.5 10.9 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.1 10.9 Income and saving Nominal GDP 5 Real disposable pers. income Previous 5 Personal saving rate3 Previous 3 5 Corporate profits7 Profit share of GNP 3 11.0 Net federal saving8 Net state & local saving -219 -207 -230 -218 -308 -610 -431 -387 -419 -411 -394 -398 -221 -434 -405 -6 13 -13 -42 -68 -65 -67 -74 -73 -74 -69 -65 -12 -69 -70 8 Gross national saving rate3 Net national saving rate 13.8 13.8 13.2 12.6 11.8 11.6 10.9 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.6 11.3 11.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 .4 -.3 -.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.0 -.8 -.6 -.3 .4 -1.0 -.3 3 1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated. Return to table 2. Change, millions. Return to table 3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table 4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. (In previous Greenbooks, we expressed the GDP gap with the opposite sign, so that a positive number indicated that actual output fell short of potential.) Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table 5. Percent change, annual rate. Return to table 6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages. Return to table 7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table 8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages. Return to table Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items (Billions of dollars except as noted) Fiscal year Item 2006 a 2007 a 2007 2008 2009 Q1 a Q2 a 2008 Q3 a Q4 a Unified budget 1 2568 2564 2695 547 2655 2729 2922 3090 -248 -162 -358 Previous -248 -162 -370 -394 -178 On-budget -434 -343 -552 -583 -212 Off-budget 186 181 194 188 Borrowing 237 206 361 448 Cash decrease -16 -23 30 -5 25 -19 28 -22 -33 -48 1 52 75 45 50 6 Outlays 1 Surplus/deficit 1 Q2 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Not seasonally adjusted 2407 Receipts Q1 a 824 622 606 540 788 630 638 539 836 682 652 725 687 663 713 746 744 720 771 781 777 761 816 -395 -178 137 -41 -107 -206 44 -89 -133 -242 59 -79 -164 137 -41 -107 -206 39 -96 -142 -240 72 -83 -165 53 -48 -166 -237 -47 -102 -204 -260 -33 -86 -233 34 85 7 59 31 91 12 71 18 92 7 69 152 -110 106 89 200 -48 120 139 234 -27 101 153 -50 18 11 -7 8 6 19 -20 -10 15 -8 -15 -1 -5 12 -39 -12 -12 -12 -12 -5 25 75 57 46 53 45 39 20 40 50 35 Means of financing Other 2 Cash operating balance, end of period NIPA federal sector Seasonally adjusted annual rates Receipts 2437 2635 2625 2804 2620 2670 2689 2715 2702 2412 2670 2737 2788 2816 2877 2911 Expenditures 2685 2845 3017 3207 2838 2877 2920 2933 3010 3023 3101 3124 3207 3227 3271 3309 Consumption expenditures 798 843 907 967 830 850 868 877 901 921 931 942 963 976 987 997 Defense 533 570 620 667 556 574 590 596 614 631 639 649 664 674 682 690 Nondefense 266 273 287 300 274 276 278 281 287 289 291 293 299 302 305 307 Other spending 1887 2001 2109 2240 2008 2027 2052 2056 2109 2102 2170 2182 2244 2251 2284 2312 -248 -209 -392 117 121 125 -262 -221 -403 -418 -227 -216 -242 -227 -318 -624 -445 -401 -434 -427 -411 -414 -278 -233 -389 -336 -233 -223 -259 -233 -311 -610 -403 -336 -355 -338 -314 -317 -0.5 -0.4 1.0 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.5 2.1 -1.5 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.0 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.0 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 -0.0 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.0 -0.0 Current account surplus Gross investment Gross saving less gross investment 3 -403 -219 -207 -230 -218 -308 -610 -431 -387 -419 -411 -394 -398 135 117 120 123 121 123 128 130 132 134 137 139 141 Fiscal indicators 4 High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP Previous 1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law. Return to table 2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities. Return to table 3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises. Return to table 4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output and the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2000) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB, positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus. Return to table a--Actual Return to table Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors (Percent) Period 1 Households Total Business State and local governments Federal government Memo: Nominal GDP Total Home mortgages Consumer credit Year 2002 7.3 10.8 13.3 5.7 2.4 11.0 7.6 3.6 2003 8.1 11.5 14.2 5.2 2.4 8.3 10.9 5.9 2004 8.8 11.2 13.7 5.5 5.8 7.4 9.0 6.5 2005 9.2 11.2 13.1 4.3 7.7 10.2 7.0 6.3 2006 8.8 10.2 11.2 4.5 9.7 8.2 3.9 5.4 2007 8.2 6.8 6.8 5.7 11.7 9.2 4.9 5.1 2008 4.8 2.6 2.3 3.3 5.7 6.1 8.0 3.4 2009 4.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 4.8 6.8 8.4 4.6 2007: 1 8.0 7.0 7.9 4.8 9.4 11.2 6.7 4.9 2 7.1 7.2 7.4 5.6 11.0 10.3 -1.4 6.6 3 9.1 6.4 5.3 8.1 13.7 6.5 8.8 6.0 4 7.5 6.1 5.8 3.9 10.6 7.7 5.1 3.0 2008: 1 6.1 3.3 3.0 4.9 8.1 6.4 9.5 3.7 Quarter 2 3.8 2.6 2.2 3.3 5.8 1.8 3.8 3.2 3 4.6 2.3 1.9 2.6 4.2 9.1 9.4 4.3 4 4.2 2.2 1.8 2.3 4.2 6.5 8.4 2.4 2009: 1 4.5 2.1 1.8 2.2 4.1 6.8 10.7 4.0 2 3.9 2.2 1.8 2.7 4.6 6.7 5.4 4.9 3 4.5 2.3 1.9 2.9 5.1 6.6 7.6 4.7 4 4.7 2.4 2.0 3.2 5.1 6.5 8.7 4.8 Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates. 1. Data after 2008:Q1 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from Q4 to Q4. Return to table 2.6.3 FOF Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights (Billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted) 2007 Category 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Domestic nonfinancial sectors Net funds raised Total 1720.4 1533.0 1071.9 1188.8 1906.2 1195.8 1393.2 860.4 1086.5 947.3 1217.5 1007.8 1220.7 1309.3 Net equity issuance -614.1 -830.7 -414.5 -272.0 -831.2 -1104.8 -515.2 -346.7 -384.0 -412.0 -272.0 -272.0 -272.0 -272.0 Net debt issuance 2334.5 2363.7 1486.3 1460.8 2737.4 2300.6 1908.4 1207.1 1470.5 1359.3 1489.5 1279.8 1492.7 1581.3 Borrowing indicators Debt (percent of GDP)1 210.3 217.4 222.7 224.0 217.4 220.2 222.0 223.0 223.0 224.0 224.3 223.9 223.7 223.6 17.7 17.1 10.3 9.8 19.6 16.3 13.4 8.4 10.2 9.3 10.1 8.6 9.9 10.4 1196.9 883.6 363.4 326.0 856.2 829.9 460.5 366.2 322.7 304.1 300.0 317.4 334.5 352.0 Home mortgages 990.2 668.8 239.6 204.2 547.1 604.9 320.9 231.4 207.7 198.3 193.6 198.3 207.7 217.2 Consumer credit 104.4 138.3 84.7 73.5 202.1 98.5 125.6 84.7 68.5 59.8 58.9 71.1 78.2 85.7 Debt/DPI (percent) 3 128.3 131.6 130.7 129.6 132.0 132.5 132.4 128.5 130.9 131.7 130.4 129.9 129.4 128.6 186.6 253.7 199.5 308.5 271.4 302.6 232.8 186.6 148.8 229.9 305.9 285.6 300.8 341.9 Borrowing (percent of GDP) Households Net borrowing 2 Business Financing gap 4 Net equity issuance Credit market borrowing -614.1 -830.7 -414.5 -272.0 -831.2 -1104.8 -515.2 -346.7 -384.0 -412.0 -272.0 -272.0 -272.0 -272.0 803.1 1057.8 579.7 514.6 1307.7 1048.1 819.7 603.6 445.6 450.2 438.2 495.2 562.9 561.8 Net borrowing 151.2 185.2 132.7 157.5 Current surplus 5 138.5 164.8 139.5 39.1 202.7 149.5 157.5 157.5 157.5 157.5 243.8 223.7 146.2 142.6 229.2 200.6 173.4 138.9 138.6 133.8 136.6 138.0 144.5 151.1 Net borrowing 183.4 237.1 410.5 462.8 435.0 257.8 488.8 198.3 499.4 455.5 593.8 309.6 437.7 509.9 Net borrowing (n.s.a.) 183.4 237.1 410.5 462.8 105.7 89.4 200.2 -48.4 119.9 138.9 234.4 -26.6 101.4 153.5 Unified deficit (n.s.a.) 209.2 187.9 383.9 426.8 40.6 106.8 205.9 -44.1 89.4 132.6 241.9 -58.6 79.4 164.0 693.7 851.7 321.1 491.3 1141.1 1062.4 645.7 84.8 356.3 197.7 257.8 532.0 628.4 546.7 State and local governments Federal government Depository institutions Funds supplied Note. Data after 2008:Q1 are staff projections. 1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP. Return to table 2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit. Return to table 3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income. Return to table 4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds. Return to table 5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers. Return to table n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted. Return to table 2.6.4 FOF † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts† International Developments Summary of Staff Projections (Percent change from end of previous period except as noted, a.r.) Projection Indicator 2007 2008:Q1 2008 2009 Q2 Foreign output 4.1 June GB 2.8 H2 2.0 2.4 3.3 4.1 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.8 5.4 4.2 2.7 3.6 June GB 2.9 3.6 Foreign CPI 4.8 4.8 3.8 2.7 Contribution to growth (percentage points) U.S. net exports .8 2.3 .9 .6 .8 June GB .8 .8 2.1 .7 .5 Note. Changes for years measured as Q4/Q4; half-year is measured as Q4/Q2. Staff Projections of Selected Trade Prices (Percent change from end of previous period excepted as noted, a.r.) Projection Indicator 2007 2008:Q1 2008 2009 Q2 H2 Imports Core goods 3.3 8.3 11.5 4.0 1.4 June GB 3.3 8.3 10.5 2.3 1.4 80.11 87.44 108.60 117.07 118.77 80.11 87.44 109.88 131.05 131.20 Core goods 6.4 12.2 9.5 4.1 1.6 June GB 6.4 12.4 8.6 3.7 1.3 Imported Oil (dollars/barrel) June GB Exports Note. Prices for core exports exclude computers and semiconductors. Prices for core imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Both price series are on a NIPA chainweighted basis. The price of imported oil for multiquarter periods is the price for the final quarter of the period. Imported oil includes both crude oil and refined products. [Box:] Prices of Imported Goods from China Figure: Prices of Goods Imported From China A line chart shows two series, "All Goods", and "Core Goods (All Goods Excluding Computers & Semiconductors)", from 2004 through 2008. Unit is an Index, December 2003 = 100. The "All Goods" series begins at about 100 in 2004, generally decreases to about 97 in 2007, and then generally increases to end at about 102.5 in 2008:Q2. The "Core Goods (All Goods Excluding Computers & Semiconductors)" series begins at about 100 in 2004, generally increases to about 101 by 2007, and then continues to increases to end at about 109.5 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Overall Core Import Price Inflation A bar chart shows two series, "Contribution from China"*, and "Contribution from All Others" from 2004-2006, 2007, and 2008:H1. Unit is percent. The approximate values for "Contribution from China" are as follows: 2004-2006: 3.5 percent. 2007: 3 percent and 2008 H1: 11.5 percent. The approximate values for "Contribution from All Others" are as follows: 2004-2006: 0 percent. 2007: 0.5 percent and 2008 H1: 1.5 percent. * Staff Estimate Return to text Figure: CPI and Exchange Rate A line chart shows three series, "Prices of Core Goods Imported from China", "China-U.S. Exchange Rate", and "China's CPI" from 2004 through 2008. Unit is an Index, December 2003 = 100. The "Prices of Core Goods Imported from China" series begins at about 100 in 2004, generally increases to about 101 by 2007, and then continues to increase and ends at about 109.5 in 2008:Q2. The "China-U.S. Exchange Rate" series begins at about 100 in 2004, stays about the same through mid-2005, and then generally increases to end at about 121 in 2008:Q3. The "China's CPI" series begins at about 100.5 in 2004, and then generally increases to end at about 117.5 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Model Forecast* A line chart shows two series, "Prices of Core Goods Imported from China", and "Forecast" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Unit is an index, December 2003 = 100. The "Prices of Core Goods Imported from China" series begins at about 100 in 2004, and generally increases to end at about 109 in 2008:Q2. The "Forecast" series begins at about 100.5 in 2004, and generally increases to end at about 107.5 in 2008:Q2. * Forecast based on econometric equation for all finished goods. Return to text Staff Projections for Trade in Goods and Services (Percent change from end of previous period, a.r.) Projection Measure 2007 2008:Q1 2008 2009 Q2 H2 Real imports 1.0 -.7 -5.3 .1 2.4 June GB 1.0 -.5 -6.7 1.0 2.8 Real exports 8.4 5.4 10.8 7.0 7.5 June GB 8.4 5.6 7.2 7.2 7.5 Note. Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4; half-year is measured as Q4/Q2. Alternative Scenarios: Higher Foreign Export Markups And Weaker Foreign Demand (Percent change from previous period, annual rate, except as noted) 2008 2009 Indicator and simulation 2010 H2 H1 H2 201112 U.S. real GDP Baseline 0.6 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.1 Higher foreign export markups 0.8 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.9 Weaker foreign demand 0.3 1.6 2.3 3.3 3.4 U.S. PCE prices excluding food and energy Baseline 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 Higher foreign export markups 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.6 Weaker foreign demand 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 Baseline 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.3 4.1 Higher foreign export markups 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 Weaker foreign demand 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.8 U.S federal funds rate (percent) U.S. trade balance (percent share of GDP) Baseline -5.0 -4.6 -4.1 -3.9 -3.6 Higher foreign export markups -5.2 -4.9 -4.4 -4.1 -3.6 Weaker foreign demand -5.2 -5.0 -4.7 -4.7 -4.2 Note. H1 is Q2/Q4; H2 is Q4/Q2. The federal funds rate is the average rate for the final quarter of the period. Evolution of the Staff Forecast Figure: Current Account Balance Percent of GDP Greenbook publication date 2007 2008 2009 25 January 2006 -7.53 ND ND 22 March 2006 -7.74 ND ND 3 May 2006 -7.75 ND ND 21 June 2006 -7.14 ND ND 3 August 2006 -7.03 ND ND 13 September 2006 -6.75 -6.96 ND 18 October 2006 -6.84 -7.09 ND 6 December 2006 -6.70 -6.87 ND 24 January 2007 -6.37 -6.67 ND 14 March 2007 -6.12 -6.38 ND 2 May 2007 -6.26 -6.40 ND 20 June 2007 -5.92 -6.21 ND 2 August 2007 -5.83 -5.81 ND 12 September 2007 -5.65 -5.54 -5.32 24 October 2007 -5.67 -5.49 -5.09 5 December 2007 -5.60 -5.40 -4.90 23 January 2008 -5.48 -5.40 -4.73 12 March 2008 -5.47 -5.33 -4.27 23 April 2008 -5.34 -5.15 -4.10 As shown in the figure, the series end on July 30, 2008. The 2007 series ends at about -5.25, the 2008 series ends at about -5, and the 2009 series ends at about -4.25. Figure: Foreign Real GDP Percent change, Q4/Q4 Greenbook publication date 2007 2008 2009 25 January 2006 3.41 ND ND 22 March 2006 3.44 ND ND 3 May 2006 3.45 ND ND 21 June 2006 3.33 ND ND 3 August 2006 3.23 ND ND 13 September 2006 3.20 3.26 ND 18 October 2006 3.23 3.31 ND 6 December 2006 3.30 3.41 ND 24 January 2007 3.37 3.46 ND 14 March 2007 3.49 3.45 ND 2 May 2007 3.56 3.49 ND 20 June 2007 3.64 3.49 ND 2 August 2007 3.80 3.41 ND 12 September 2007 3.77 3.16 3.23 24 October 2007 3.79 3.23 3.23 5 December 2007 3.97 3.06 3.24 23 January 2008 4.03 2.88 3.37 12 March 2008 4.16 2.28 3.57 23 April 2008 4.13 2.27 3.60 As shown in the figure, the series end on July 30, 2008. The 2007 series ends at about 4.1, the 2008 series ends at about 2.4, and the 2009 series ends at about 3.25. Figure: Core Import Prices* Percent change, Q4/Q4 Greenbook publication date 2007 2008 2009 25 January 2006 1.08 ND ND 22 March 2006 1.17 ND ND 3 May 2006 1.31 ND ND 21 June 2006 1.47 ND ND 3 August 2006 1.39 ND ND 13 September 2006 1.44 0.97 ND 18 October 2006 1.37 0.98 ND 6 December 2006 2.11 1.04 ND 24 January 2007 1.55 1.04 ND 14 March 2007 1.97 1.10 ND 2 May 2007 3.24 1.34 ND 20 June 2007 3.49 1.58 ND 2 August 2007 3.36 1.63 ND 12 September 2007 2.85 1.25 1.04 24 October 2007 2.97 1.16 0.71 5 December 2007 2.89 1.14 0.86 23 January 2008 3.11 1.69 1.22 12 March 2008 3.22 3.85 1.18 23 April 2008 3.30 4.60 1.27 As shown in the figure, the series end on July 30, 2008. The 2007 series ends at about 3.4, the 2008 series ends at about 7, and the 2009 series ends at about 1.5. * Prices for merchandise imports excluding computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries (Percent changes) Projected Measure and country 2007 Q1 Q2 REAL GDP 1 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Quarterly changes at an annual rate Total Foreign 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 Canada 4.1 3.9 2.3 0.8 -0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 Japan 4.5 -2.5 0.9 2.9 4.0 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 United Kingdom 3.2 3.5 2.3 2.2 1.1 Euro Area 2 3.3 1.4 2.6 1.5 2.9 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 Germany 2.6 0.7 2.7 1.1 6.3 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.8 6.0 7.2 6.6 5.2 4.7 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.2 8.6 9.3 7.7 5.6 7.7 4.8 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 4.0 7.1 6.0 6.4 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.4 8.2 10.6 11.7 9.9 9.2 8.9 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 Advanced Foreign Economies of which: Emerging Market Economies Asia Korea China 15.1 11.4 Latin America 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.7 3.6 5.2 5.6 4.4 1.5 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.0 Mexico 2.7 4.8 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 Brazil 4.0 6.2 7.5 6.6 2.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 CONSUMER PRICES3 Total Foreign Four-quarter changes 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.9 Advanced Foreign Economies 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.8 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 -0.1 -0.1 of which: Canada Japan -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.5 2.9 2.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 3.4 4.6 5.3 5.1 4.2 3.3 2.4 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.9 3.4 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 Germany 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 3.1 3.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.6 2.7 3.1 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.1 6.5 6.1 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.4 Korea 2.0 2.5 2.3 3.4 3.8 4.8 5.6 5.1 5.0 3.6 3.0 3.0 China 2.7 3.6 6.1 6.6 8.0 7.8 6.1 5.7 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 5.5 6.0 5.9 5.7 4.9 4.2 4.0 Mexico 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.5 Brazil 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.5 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.1 5.0 United Kingdom 4 Euro Area Emerging Market Economies Asia Latin America 1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table 2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table 3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table 4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries (Percent, Q4 to Q4) Projected Measure and country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 REAL GDP 1 Total Foreign 0.4 3.0 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 2.4 3.3 Advanced Foreign Economies 0.9 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 1.0 2.0 1.3 3.5 1.5 3.7 3.0 2.2 2.8 0.7 2.2 -1.7 2.0 2.4 1.1 2.9 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.3 3.4 2.6 1.8 3.2 2.8 0.3 1.1 of which: Canada Japan United Kingdom Euro Area 2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.3 2.2 1.3 2.0 Germany 1.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 -0.3 3.9 4.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 6.3 4.3 4.9 Emerging Market Economies Asia 1.0 6.4 6.9 6.0 7.6 7.0 7.8 6.0 6.3 Korea 4.7 7.7 4.1 2.9 5.6 4.2 5.9 3.5 4.2 China 7.2 8.6 10.3 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.3 9.9 9.5 Latin America -1.2 1.6 1.9 4.7 4.0 4.5 4.7 2.3 3.5 Mexico -1.3 2.0 1.4 4.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 2.1 3.3 Brazil -0.6 4.9 1.0 4.5 3.4 4.9 6.1 3.6 4.0 CONSUMER PRICES 3 Total Foreign 1.7 Advanced Foreign Economies 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 3.6 4.6 2.7 0.9 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.2 3.2 1.9 of which: Canada 1.1 United Kingdom 4 3.8 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.3 2.4 3.3 2.0 -1.1 Japan -0.5 -0.3 0.5 -1.0 0.3 0.5 2.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.1 5.3 2.4 2 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.9 3.5 2.5 Germany 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.1 2.2 1.3 3.1 2.8 2.4 Euro Area Emerging Market Economies 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.0 2.9 5.1 6.1 3.6 1.2 0.8 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.3 5.4 6.1 3.4 Korea 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.1 3.4 5.1 3.0 China -0.1 -0.6 2.7 3.2 1.4 2.1 6.6 5.7 3.4 5.3 6.4 4.9 5.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 5.9 4.0 Mexico 5.1 5.2 3.9 5.3 3.1 4.1 3.8 5.3 3.5 Brazil 7.5 10.7 11.5 7.2 6.1 3.2 4.3 6.8 5.0 Asia Latin America 1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table 2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table 3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table 4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table Outlook for U.S. International Transactions Projected 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4 Net Goods & Services -0.2 -0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6 Exports of G&S -1.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Imports of G&S 1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -1.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 Percentage change, Q4/Q4 Exports of G&S Services -11.9 3.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 9.3 8.4 7.6 7.5 -8.9 10.2 3.0 8.3 4.1 8.3 7.0 6.3 6.2 Computers -23.5 -1.1 11.3 5.8 14.0 8.2 -5.9 Semiconductors -34.6 10.1 38.3 -6.0 Core Goods 1 -10.2 0.6 4.9 8.0 12.1 9.9 17.5 2.4 7.5 10.2 27.6 4.1 11.1 8.8 8.1 7.9 Imports of G&S Services Oil Natural Gas -7.6 9.7 4.8 11.5 5.1 3.7 1.0 -1.5 2.4 -5.9 8.8 2.2 9.3 1.4 6.1 2.0 1.6 3.0 3.7 3.8 1.2 10.8 1.2 -9.0 1.3 -4.9 -1.1 -6.5 19.5 1.3 4.9 11.3 -13.4 -18.0 -1.3 7.0 Computers -13.6 13.2 17.0 23.2 12.2 13.6 6.8 13.2 15.6 Semiconductors -51.1 11.0 -0.1 9.8 7.6 -0.5 4.1 6.2 5.0 -6.5 10.0 5.2 11.4 6.0 5.9 0.3 -2.3 2.5 Core Goods 2 Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars Net Goods & Services -399.1 -471.3 -518.9 -593.8 -618.0 -624.5 -555.6 -411.5 -310.9 Exports of G&S 1036.7 1013.3 1026.1 1126.1 1203.4 1304.1 1409.9 1532.1 1648.2 Imports of G&S 1435.8 1484.6 1545.0 1719.9 1821.5 1928.6 1965.4 1943.6 1959.1 Billions of dollars US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -384.7 -461.3 -523.4 -625.0 -729.0 -788.1 -731.2 -725.6 -626.9 Current Acct as Percent of GDP -3.8 -4.4 -4.8 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.3 -5.0 -4.2 Net Goods & Services (BOP) -365.1 -423.7 -496.9 -607.7 -711.6 -753.3 -700.3 -721.0 -654.7 Investment Income, Net 36.9 33.0 51.0 73.4 78.8 63.8 88.8 118.1 150.7 Direct, Net 115.9 102.4 112.7 150.9 173.2 184.1 233.9 279.4 302.9 Portfolio, Net -79.0 -69.4 -61.7 -77.5 -94.4 -120.3 -145.1 -161.4 -152.2 -56.5 -70.5 -77.5 -90.6 -96.2 Other Income & Transfers,Net -98.6 -119.7 -122.7 -123.0 1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table Outlook for U.S. International Transactions 2004 Q1 Q2 2005 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS Percentage point contribution to GDP growth Net Goods & Services -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -1.1 0.3 0.8 -0.1 -1.4 0.1 0.5 -0.2 1.2 Exports of G&S 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.6 1.5 Imports of G&S -1.7 -2.1 -0.7 -2.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -2.5 -1.1 -0.1 -0.9 -0.3 Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. Exports of G&S Services 10.0 6.5 3.1 10.0 6.0 9.5 2.1 10.6 11.5 5.7 5.7 14.3 16.2 5.1 -3.4 16.8 6.5 0.9 2.6 6.3 2.9 3.9 2.0 26.0 Computers -7.0 1.7 16.7 13.4 17.4 24.9 12.8 2.0 14.6 13.0 -3.9 9.9 Semiconductors 16.7 -13.4 -20.9 -2.4 -1.7 9.3 23.2 43.8 25.3 14.5 -11.5 -13.5 Core Goods 1 7.8 9.2 7.7 7.4 5.6 13.1 0.2 11.6 14.9 5.7 9.2 11.0 Imports of G&S 12.3 15.2 4.8 13.8 2.1 0.8 2.1 16.2 6.9 0.9 5.4 1.6 Services 16.5 8.9 1.8 10.5 -3.5 -0.5 0.0 10.3 9.5 -0.1 1.3 14.2 Oil 39.2 -26.3 -7.1 58.3 5.4 -26.2 -14.2 57.1 -3.6 -26.1 3.3 -6.9 Natural Gas 33.4 43.1 48.5 -57.3 53.9 -4.0 108.6 -50.2 -49.4 123.0 24.1 -59.8 Computers 20.7 30.1 25.6 17.0 5.7 9.8 17.0 16.6 27.0 16.9 16.0 -3.2 Semiconductors 43.0 18.5 3.9 -17.4 -9.5 7.7 15.7 18.8 0.1 -1.5 20.9 -17.9 6.5 23.0 5.4 11.6 2.3 6.1 2.8 13.1 9.7 5.4 5.5 3.1 Core Goods 2 Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. Net Goods & Services -549.1 -591.1 -602.7 -632.3 -624.4 -601.0 -604.1 -642.6 -640.1 -626.6 -633.8 -597.3 Exports of G&S 1101.8 1119.4 1128.0 1155.3 1172.4 1199.3 1205.6 1236.4 1270.6 1288.4 1306.6 1350.9 Imports of G&S 1650.9 1710.5 1730.8 1787.7 1796.8 1800.3 1809.7 1879.0 1910.7 1915.0 1940.4 1948.2 Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -545.8 -622.7 -617.9 -713.6 -696.2 -711.3 -675.6 -832.9 -783.8 -799.6 -843.6 -725.4 Current Account as % of GDP -4.8 -5.4 -5.2 -6.0 -5.7 -5.8 -5.4 -6.6 -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 -5.4 Net Goods & Services (BOP) -540.6 -599.1 -621.5 -669.7 -664.0 -682.9 -721.4 -778.0 -756.4 -767.4 -789.9 -699.5 Investment Income, Net 92.7 68.2 78.7 53.8 88.6 77.8 88.7 59.9 65.2 70.7 51.7 67.7 Direct, Net 157.1 139.0 153.7 153.6 170.2 168.5 187.8 166.3 177.2 189.2 171.9 198.2 Portfolio, Net -64.3 -70.9 -75.0 -99.8 -81.6 -90.7 -99.0 -106.5 -112.0 -118.5 -120.3 -130.5 Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -97.9 -91.8 -75.1 -97.7 -120.9 -106.2 -42.9 -114.8 -92.6 -103.0 -105.4 -93.6 1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table Outlook for U.S. International Transactions Projected 2007 Q1 Q2 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS Percentage point contribution to GDP growth Net Goods & Services -0.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.8 2.3 1.0 0.8 0.4 1.4 0.7 -0.2 Exports of G&S 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Imports of G&S -0.6 0.5 -0.7 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.3 6.8 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. Exports of G&S Services 1.1 7.5 19.1 6.5 5.4 10.8 1.6 9.6 4.0 13.2 7.9 4.8 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.2 Computers -8.2 -17.8 19.9 -13.3 0.2 44.2 -0.3 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 Semiconductors 25.4 23.2 6.3 61.4 5.6 -9.8 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 Core Goods 1 0.3 7.1 27.4 2.5 4.5 13.6 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 Imports of G&S 3.9 -2.7 4.4 -1.4 -0.7 -5.3 -0.6 0.8 3.4 -2.1 1.5 7.0 2.3 -1.7 1.7 5.5 6.0 1.8 3.3 -4.5 1.7 3.4 3.4 3.7 29.6 -22.3 -18.2 28.1 16.6 -38.3 -2.2 16.4 12.9 -20.3 -10.5 19.0 8.3 258.5 -16.7 -86.0 -37.9 91.4 33.5 -40.1 21.9 12.9 46.8 -35.1 41.1 -13.1 -3.8 10.3 6.1 34.1 -0.1 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 4.0 3.3 3.4 5.5 -3.3 19.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 -2.3 -0.5 11.8 -6.7 -6.4 2.0 -1.9 -2.6 -0.4 2.2 3.7 4.6 Services Oil Natural Gas Computers Semiconductors Core Goods 2 Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. Net Goods & Services -612.1 -573.9 -533.1 -503.2 -480.2 -415.2 -386.9 -363.6 -351.4 -311.5 -289.0 -291.8 Exports of G&S 1354.7 1379.5 1441.2 1464.1 1483.7 1522.3 1547.5 1574.9 1603.5 1632.9 1662.9 1693.5 Imports of G&S 1966.8 1953.4 1974.3 1967.3 1963.9 1937.5 1934.4 1938.5 1954.9 1944.4 1951.8 1985.3 Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -787.7 -776.4 -691.8 -669.0 -705.5 -734.5 -740.4 -722.1 -711.1 -629.6 -585.5 -581.6 Current Account as % of GDP -5.8 -5.6 -5.0 -4.8 -5.0 -5.1 -5.1 -5.0 -4.8 -4.2 -3.9 -3.8 Net Goods & Services (BOP) -718.2 -715.3 -672.5 -695.1 -699.7 -739.1 -731.1 -714.0 -711.4 -655.0 -623.4 -628.8 Investment Income, Net Direct, Net Portfolio, Net 57.8 45.8 98.9 152.6 126.3 117.0 110.4 118.6 131.4 145.7 158.2 167.5 201.1 196.2 238.8 299.3 267.4 277.0 282.2 291.1 297.5 301.7 304.3 308.0 -143.2 -150.4 -139.9 -146.7 -141.1 -160.0 -171.8 -172.5 -166.1 -156.0 -146.1 -140.6 Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -127.4 -106.9 -118.3 -126.4 -132.1 -112.4 -119.7 -126.7 -131.1 -120.3 -120.3 -120.3 1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table 2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts† Domestic Nonfinancial Developments Changes in Employment (Thousands of employees; seasonally adjusted) 2007 2008 2007 Measure and sector Q4 Q1 Q2 Apr. Average monthly change Nonfarm payroll employment (establishment survey) May June Monthly change Construction Residential -64 -67 -62 -62 -97 -91 -91 -91 -91 3 4 4 5 2 5 7 -17 -43 -36 -52 -22 -33 -8 -31 -32 -33 -24 -39 -19 Ex. motor vehicles -82 45 -15 Manufacturing 80 -22 Natural resources and mining 91 71 Private -41 -41 -46 -59 -37 -43 -20 -39 -30 -28 -32 -30 -21 Nonresidential 1 -2 -11 -18 -27 -7 -22 Wholesale trade 9 6 -6 -6 -10 -4 -2 6 0 -29 -25 -46 -23 -8 Financial activities Retail trade -9 -14 -7 -5 -2 -3 -10 Professional and business services 26 44 -39 -28 17 -49 -51 -7 4 -24 -27 -19 -32 -30 76 71 66 58 65 56 52 21 35 15 27 24 29 29 22 -16 -81 -26 362 -285 -155 1.3 1.0 -1.1 -.9 -.1 -.4 -.1 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.7 41.2 41.2 41.1 40.9 41.0 40.9 40.8 Temporary help services Nonbusiness services 1 Total government Total employment (household survey) Memo: Aggregate hours of private production workers (percent change) 2 Average workweek (hours) 3 Manufacturing (hours) 1. Nonbusiness services comprises education and health, leisure and hospitality, and "other." Return to table 2. Establishment survey. Annual data are percent changes from Q4 to Q4. Quarterly data are percent changes from preceding quarter at an annual rate. Monthly data are percent changes from preceding month. Return to table 3. Establishment survey. Return to table Figure: Changes in Private Payroll Employment 3-month moving average Period Thousands January 1999 221.33 February 1999 257.67 March 1999 182.67 April 1999 246.33 May 1999 203.33 June 1999 250.33 July 1999 222.67 August 1999 201.00 September 1999 184.33 October 1999 228.00 November 1999 261.00 December 1999 286.67 January 2000 241.00 February 2000 187.00 March 2000 216.33 April 2000 216.00 May 2000 145.00 June 2000 103.67 July 2000 92.33 August 2000 143.33 September 2000 146.67 October 2000 79.33 November 2000 139.67 December 2000 96.33 January 2001 87.00 February 2001 12.33 March 2001 -42.00 April 2001 -135.67 May 2001 -159.33 June 2001 -215.00 July 2001 -163.33 August 2001 -200.67 September 2001 -211.33 October 2001 -273.00 November 2001 -323.00 December 2001 -302.67 January 2002 -234.67 February 2002 -173.67 March 2002 -126.33 April 2002 -107.33 May 2002 -80.00 June 2002 -55.00 July 2002 -53.33 August 2002 -47.67 September 2002 -55.00 October 2002 13.33 November 2002 29.00 December 2002 -21.33 January 2003 -44.00 February 2003 -91.33 March 2003 -103.00 April 2003 -129.33 May 2003 -70.00 June 2003 -17.67 July 2003 -7.00 August 2003 September 2003 -2.67 62.67 October 2003 113.00 November 2003 115.00 December 2003 101.00 January 2004 103.00 February 2004 95.67 March 2004 155.00 April 2004 184.67 May 2004 277.00 June 2004 217.00 July 2004 152.33 August 2004 81.33 September 2004 101.33 October 2004 192.00 November 2004 177.67 December 2004 164.33 January 2005 88.67 February 2005 145.00 March 2005 143.00 April 2005 213.33 May 2005 199.00 June 2005 250.00 July 2005 239.00 August 2005 251.33 September 2005 200.67 October 2005 150.67 November 2005 190.67 December 2005 192.67 January 2006 240.67 February 2006 215.67 March 2006 250.67 April 2006 206.33 May 2006 129.00 June 2006 82.67 July 2006 99.33 August 2006 151.67 September 2006 158.67 October 2006 119.67 November 2006 119.00 December 2006 142.33 January 2007 155.33 February 2007 98.67 March 2007 89.33 April 2007 63.33 May 2007 108.67 June 2007 85.33 July 2007 105.67 August 2007 70.67 September 2007 62.33 October 2007 67.67 November 2007 71.67 December 2007 45.00 January 2008 -16.33 February 2008 -67.33 March 2008 -97.00 April 2008 -101.00 May 2008 -95.00 June 2008 -91.00 Figure: Aggregate Hours and Workweek of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers Period Aggregate hours (2002 = 100) Workweek (Hours) January 1999 100.4 34.4 February 1999 100.8 34.4 March 1999 100.5 34.3 April 1999 101.1 34.4 May 1999 101.3 34.4 June 1999 101.5 34.4 July 1999 101.7 34.4 August 1999 101.9 34.4 September 1999 102.0 34.4 October 1999 102.4 34.4 November 1999 102.6 34.4 December 1999 102.9 34.4 January 2000 103.1 34.4 February 2000 103.2 34.4 March 2000 103.2 34.3 April 2000 103.7 34.4 May 2000 103.3 34.3 June 2000 103.5 34.3 July 2000 103.7 34.3 August 2000 103.4 34.2 September 2000 103.6 34.2 October 2000 103.9 34.3 November 2000 103.7 34.2 December 2000 103.2 34.0 January 2001 103.7 34.2 February 2001 103.0 34.0 March 2001 103.3 34.1 April 2001 102.7 34.0 May 2001 102.6 34.0 June 2001 102.4 34.0 July 2001 102.3 34.0 August 2001 101.8 33.9 September 2001 101.2 33.8 October 2001 100.6 33.7 November 2001 100.5 33.8 December 2001 100.7 33.9 January 2002 100.3 33.8 February 2002 100.3 33.8 March 2002 100.5 33.9 April 2002 100.4 33.9 May 2002 100.2 33.9 June 2002 100.1 33.9 July 2002 99.6 33.8 August 2002 99.9 33.9 September 2002 99.8 33.9 October 2002 99.6 33.8 November 2002 99.6 33.8 December 2002 99.3 33.8 January 2003 99.4 33.8 February 2003 98.6 33.6 March 2003 98.9 33.8 April 2003 98.3 33.6 May 2003 98.5 33.7 June 2003 98.2 33.6 July 2003 98.2 33.6 August 2003 98.5 33.7 September 2003 98.4 33.6 October 2003 98.8 33.7 November 2003 98.8 33.7 December 2003 98.6 33.6 January 2004 99.3 33.8 February 2004 99.3 33.8 March 2004 99.3 33.7 April 2004 99.6 33.7 May 2004 100.2 33.8 99.8 33.6 July 2004 100.2 33.7 August 2004 100.4 33.7 September 2004 100.9 33.8 October 2004 101.0 33.7 November 2004 100.7 33.6 December 2004 101.5 33.8 January 2005 101.3 33.7 February 2005 101.9 33.8 March 2005 101.7 33.7 April 2005 102.4 33.8 May 2005 102.2 33.7 June 2005 102.6 33.7 July 2005 102.8 33.7 August 2005 103.0 33.7 September 2005 103.5 33.8 October 2005 103.6 33.8 November 2005 104.0 33.8 December 2005 104.2 33.8 January 2006 104.8 33.9 June 2004 February 2006 104.8 33.8 March 2006 105.1 33.8 April 2006 105.6 33.9 May 2006 105.4 33.8 June 2006 105.8 33.9 July 2006 106.0 33.9 August 2006 106.2 33.9 September 2006 105.9 33.8 October 2006 106.3 33.9 November 2006 106.2 33.8 December 2006 106.7 33.9 January 2007 106.5 33.8 February 2007 106.2 33.7 March 2007 107.1 33.9 April 2007 106.8 33.8 May 2007 107.1 33.8 June 2007 107.6 33.9 July 2007 107.4 33.8 August 2007 107.4 33.8 September 2007 107.6 33.8 October 2007 107.7 33.8 November 2007 107.7 33.8 December 2007 107.8 33.8 January 2008 107.4 33.7 February 2008 107.3 33.7 March 2008 107.6 33.8 April 2008 107.5 33.8 May 2008 107.1 33.7 June 2008 107.0 33.7 Selected Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates (Percent; seasonally adjusted) 2007 Rate and group 2008 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Apr. May June Civilian unemployment rate Total 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.0 5.5 5.5 15.7 16.4 16.8 17.4 15.4 18.7 18.1 20-24 years old 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.8 8.9 10.4 10.1 Men, 25 years and older 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.3 Women, 25 years and older 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.2 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.0 66.2 66.1 Teenagers 41.3 41.0 40.3 41.4 41.1 42.6 40.5 20-24 years old 74.4 74.0 73.9 74.6 74.2 75.0 74.8 Men, 25 years and older 75.6 75.5 75.5 75.2 75.2 75.2 75.3 Women, 25 years and older 59.7 59.7 59.9 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.1 Teenagers Labor force participation rate Total Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate Percent Period Unemployment rate Participation rate January 2000 4.0 67.294 February 2000 4.1 67.331 March 2000 4.0 67.258 April 2000 3.8 67.330 May 2000 4.0 67.088 June 2000 4.0 67.112 July 2000 4.0 66.899 August 2000 4.1 66.934 September 2000 3.9 66.859 October 2000 3.9 66.832 November 2000 3.9 66.949 December 2000 3.9 67.021 January 2001 4.2 67.231 February 2001 4.2 67.115 March 2001 4.3 67.158 April 2001 4.4 66.924 May 2001 4.3 66.743 June 2001 4.5 66.693 July 2001 4.6 66.760 August 2001 4.9 66.514 September 2001 5.0 66.765 October 2001 5.3 66.736 November 2001 5.5 66.742 December 2001 5.7 66.711 January 2002 5.7 66.457 February 2002 5.7 66.764 March 2002 5.7 66.635 April 2002 5.9 66.692 May 2002 5.8 66.731 June 2002 5.8 66.607 July 2002 5.8 66.536 August 2002 5.7 66.559 September 2002 5.7 66.734 October 2002 5.7 66.554 November 2002 5.9 66.366 December 2002 6.0 66.319 January 2003 5.8 66.366 February 2003 5.9 66.375 March 2003 5.9 66.278 April 2003 6.0 66.416 May 2003 6.1 66.359 June 2003 6.3 66.537 July 2003 6.2 66.207 August 2003 6.1 66.113 September 2003 6.1 66.070 October 2003 6.0 66.077 November 2003 5.8 66.133 December 2003 5.7 65.943 January 2004 5.7 66.092 February 2004 5.6 65.971 March 2004 5.8 66.010 April 2004 5.6 65.919 May 2004 5.6 65.955 June 2004 5.6 66.065 July 2004 5.5 66.111 August 2004 5.4 65.981 September 2004 5.4 65.840 October 2004 5.5 65.933 November 2004 5.4 66.027 December 2004 5.4 65.922 January 2005 5.2 65.817 February 2005 5.4 65.903 March 2005 5.2 65.840 April 2005 5.1 66.054 May 2005 5.1 66.148 June 2005 5.0 66.063 July 2005 5.0 66.096 August 2005 4.9 66.171 September 2005 5.1 66.178 October 2005 5.0 66.118 November 2005 5.0 66.064 December 2005 4.8 65.974 January 2006 4.7 65.967 February 2006 4.7 66.080 March 2006 4.7 66.101 April 2006 4.7 66.128 May 2006 4.7 66.159 June 2006 4.6 66.203 July 2006 4.7 66.170 August 2006 4.7 66.239 September 2006 4.5 66.141 October 2006 4.4 66.237 November 2006 4.5 66.290 December 2006 4.4 66.364 January 2007 4.6 66.316 February 2007 4.5 66.162 March 2007 4.4 66.174 April 2007 4.5 65.963 May 2007 4.5 66.000 June 2007 4.6 66.067 July 2007 4.7 66.039 August 2007 4.7 65.839 September 2007 4.7 66.035 October 2007 4.8 65.877 November 2007 4.7 66.038 December 2007 5.0 65.993 January 2008 4.9 66.128 February 2008 4.8 65.880 March 2008 5.1 66.003 April 2008 5.0 66.020 May 2008 5.5 66.209 June 2008 5.5 66.084 Figure: Persons Working Part Time for Economic Reasons Period Percent of household employment January 2000 2.274 February 2000 2.239 March 2000 2.280 April 2000 2.250 May 2000 2.319 June 2000 2.280 July 2000 2.235 August 2000 2.284 September 2000 2.280 October 2000 2.230 November 2000 2.465 December 2000 2.305 January 2001 2.350 February 2001 2.336 March 2001 2.303 April 2001 2.335 May 2001 2.433 June 2001 2.703 July 2001 2.528 August 2001 2.452 September 2001 3.038 October 2001 3.172 November 2001 3.087 December 2001 3.189 January 2002 2.954 February 2002 3.059 March 2002 2.956 April 2002 3.037 May 2002 2.920 June 2002 2.898 July 2002 2.950 August 2002 3.058 September 2002 3.076 October 2002 3.090 November 2002 3.124 December 2002 3.118 January 2003 3.262 February 2003 3.432 March 2003 3.309 April 2003 3.419 May 2003 3.238 June 2003 3.248 July 2003 3.318 August 2003 3.151 September 2003 3.455 October 2003 3.406 November 2003 3.447 December 2003 3.376 January 2004 3.333 February 2004 3.219 March 2004 3.351 April 2004 3.246 May 2004 3.258 June 2004 3.136 July 2004 3.116 August 2004 3.086 September 2004 3.128 October 2004 3.372 November 2004 3.157 December 2004 3.105 January 2005 3.065 February 2005 2.993 March 2005 3.086 April 2005 2.982 May 2005 3.001 June 2005 3.071 July 2005 3.048 August 2005 3.074 September 2005 3.179 October 2005 2.940 November 2005 2.898 December 2005 2.819 January 2006 2.828 February 2006 2.881 March 2006 2.715 April 2006 2.683 May 2006 2.787 June 2006 2.899 July 2006 2.878 August 2006 2.806 September 2006 2.719 October 2006 2.973 November 2006 2.811 December 2006 2.836 January 2007 2.839 February 2007 2.831 March 2007 2.878 April 2007 2.952 May 2007 3.009 June 2007 2.882 July 2007 2.916 August 2007 3.064 September 2007 3.006 October 2007 2.946 November 2007 3.037 December 2007 3.130 January 2008 3.198 February 2008 3.281 March 2008 3.286 April 2008 3.502 May 2008 3.536 June 2008 3.638 Figure: Unemployed Due to Job Loss Period Percent of labor force January 2000 1.78 February 2000 1.86 March 2000 1.77 April 2000 1.61 May 2000 1.73 June 2000 1.71 July 2000 1.74 August 2000 1.85 September 2000 1.77 October 2000 1.73 November 2000 1.76 December 2000 1.82 January 2001 1.95 February 2001 2.02 March 2001 2.12 April 2001 2.15 May 2001 2.21 June 2001 2.30 July 2001 2.34 August 2001 2.43 September 2001 2.52 October 2001 3.00 November 2001 3.10 December 2001 3.09 January 2002 3.12 February 2002 3.08 March 2002 3.07 April 2002 3.20 May 2002 3.21 June 2002 3.20 July 2002 3.18 August 2002 3.17 September 2002 3.12 October 2002 3.23 November 2002 3.27 December 2002 3.29 January 2003 3.23 February 2003 3.28 March 2003 3.26 April 2003 3.28 May 2003 3.48 June 2003 3.39 July 2003 3.38 August 2003 3.41 September 2003 3.38 October 2003 3.29 November 2003 3.18 December 2003 3.07 January 2004 2.99 February 2004 2.91 March 2004 3.11 April 2004 2.95 May 2004 2.85 June 2004 2.78 July 2004 2.85 August 2004 2.70 September 2004 2.73 October 2004 2.76 November 2004 2.74 December 2004 2.72 January 2005 2.71 February 2005 2.63 March 2005 2.55 April 2005 2.45 May 2005 2.42 June 2005 2.44 July 2005 2.39 August 2005 2.31 September 2005 2.50 October 2005 2.37 November 2005 2.33 December 2005 2.32 January 2006 2.22 February 2006 2.24 March 2006 2.29 April 2006 2.32 May 2006 2.30 June 2006 2.24 July 2006 2.18 August 2006 2.16 September 2006 2.13 October 2006 2.04 November 2006 2.11 December 2006 2.12 January 2007 2.22 February 2007 2.26 March 2007 2.12 April 2007 2.17 May 2007 2.21 June 2007 2.23 July 2007 2.37 August 2007 2.38 September 2007 2.36 October 2007 2.43 November 2007 2.35 December 2007 2.51 January 2008 2.47 February 2008 2.51 March 2008 2.70 April 2008 2.61 May 2008 2.77 June 2008 2.83 Figure: Job Losers Unemployed Less Than 5 Weeks Period Percent of household employment 3-month moving average January 2000 0.833 0.837 February 2000 0.838 0.842 March 2000 0.869 0.846 April 2000 0.729 0.812 May 2000 0.835 0.811 June 2000 0.868 0.811 July 2000 0.833 0.845 August 2000 0.875 0.859 September 2000 0.871 0.860 October 2000 0.795 0.847 November 2000 0.829 0.832 December 2000 0.847 0.824 January 2001 0.927 0.868 February 2001 1.011 0.929 March 2001 0.915 0.951 April 2001 1.068 0.998 May 2001 1.065 1.016 June 2001 1.095 1.076 July 2001 0.958 1.039 August 2001 1.087 1.046 September 2001 1.091 1.045 October 2001 1.317 1.165 November 2001 1.238 1.215 December 2001 1.133 1.229 January 2002 1.218 1.196 February 2002 1.187 1.179 March 2002 1.109 1.171 April 2002 1.085 1.127 May 2002 1.052 1.082 June 2002 1.061 1.066 July 2002 1.080 1.064 August 2002 1.137 1.092 September 2002 1.053 1.090 October 2002 1.082 1.091 November 2002 1.129 1.088 December 2002 1.087 1.099 January 2003 1.101 1.105 February 2003 1.073 1.087 March 2003 1.084 1.086 April 2003 1.067 1.075 May 2003 1.212 1.121 June 2003 1.104 1.128 July 2003 1.079 1.132 August 2003 1.133 1.106 September 2003 1.038 1.084 October 2003 1.026 1.066 November 2003 0.993 1.019 December 2003 1.013 1.010 January 2004 0.983 0.996 February 2004 0.877 0.958 March 2004 1.021 0.960 April 2004 1.032 0.977 May 2004 1.000 1.018 June 2004 0.945 0.992 July 2004 1.078 1.008 August 2004 0.973 0.999 September 2004 1.029 1.027 October 2004 0.993 0.998 November 2004 0.978 1.000 December 2004 0.992 0.988 January 2005 0.970 0.980 February 2005 0.975 0.979 March 2005 0.870 0.939 April 2005 0.907 0.918 May 2005 0.894 0.890 June 2005 0.933 0.911 July 2005 0.925 0.917 August 2005 0.893 0.917 September 2005 0.995 0.937 October 2005 0.908 0.932 November 2005 0.838 0.914 December 2005 0.884 0.877 January 2006 0.857 0.860 February 2006 0.836 0.859 March 2006 0.916 0.870 April 2006 0.917 0.890 May 2006 0.892 0.908 June 2006 0.947 0.919 July 2006 0.876 0.905 August 2006 0.838 0.887 September 2006 0.871 0.862 October 2006 0.836 0.848 November 2006 0.855 0.854 December 2006 0.935 0.876 January 2007 0.892 0.894 February 2007 0.932 0.920 March 2007 0.786 0.870 April 2007 0.878 0.865 May 2007 0.865 0.843 June 2007 0.814 0.852 July 2007 0.854 0.844 August 2007 0.916 0.862 September 2007 0.882 0.884 October 2007 0.943 0.914 November 2007 0.960 0.929 December 2007 0.975 0.960 January 2008 0.981 0.972 February 2008 0.997 0.984 March 2008 1.074 1.017 April 2008 0.940 1.004 May 2008 1.174 1.063 June 2008 0.970 1.028 July 2008 ND 1.072 August 2008 ND 0.970 Labor Market Indicators Figure: Unemployment Insurance Period Initial claims (Thousands) Insured unemployment (Millions) 9 January 1999 327.00 2.26 16 January 1999 337.43 2.29 23 January 1999 331.36 2.29 30 January 1999 324.90 2.28 6 February 1999 311.35 2.27 13 February 1999 304.59 2.26 20 February 1999 302.25 2.25 27 February 1999 301.17 2.24 6 March 1999 303.53 2.24 13 March 1999 302.70 2.23 20 March 1999 303.42 2.23 27 March 1999 302.69 2.23 3 April 1999 305.10 2.24 10 April 1999 307.70 2.24 17 April 1999 310.01 2.24 24 April 1999 308.22 2.24 1 May 1999 304.72 2.22 8 May 1999 302.43 2.21 15 May 1999 299.11 2.21 22 May 1999 301.07 2.22 29 May 1999 302.98 2.21 5 June 1999 301.42 2.21 12 June 1999 298.81 2.21 19 June 1999 297.22 2.20 26 June 1999 294.23 2.19 3 July 1999 290.04 2.19 10 July 1999 289.49 2.18 17 July 1999 293.77 2.19 24 July 1999 297.49 2.20 31 July 1999 300.88 2.19 7 August 1999 302.51 2.20 14 August 1999 298.26 2.18 21 August 1999 293.16 2.18 28 August 1999 290.55 2.18 4 September 1999 289.34 2.17 11 September 1999 286.65 2.17 18 September 1999 285.51 2.16 25 September 1999 289.57 2.16 2 October 1999 294.34 2.16 9 October 1999 296.70 2.14 16 October 1999 298.09 2.13 23 October 1999 291.69 2.11 30 October 1999 285.84 2.09 6 November 1999 283.74 2.09 13 November 1999 282.19 2.08 20 November 1999 281.21 2.08 27 November 1999 281.80 2.09 4 December 1999 282.97 2.08 11 December 1999 280.88 2.09 18 December 1999 283.51 2.10 25 December 1999 278.57 2.10 1 January 2000 278.34 2.10 8 January 2000 284.81 2.11 15 January 2000 285.44 2.11 22 January 2000 289.54 2.10 29 January 2000 289.33 2.11 5 February 2000 292.79 2.13 12 February 2000 295.48 2.13 19 February 2000 295.18 2.15 26 February 2000 293.90 2.15 4 March 2000 287.32 2.13 11 March 2000 279.76 2.12 18 March 2000 276.59 2.10 25 March 2000 274.58 2.08 1 April 2000 269.75 2.06 8 April 2000 269.19 2.04 15 April 2000 266.29 2.02 22 April 2000 266.65 2.01 29 April 2000 272.85 2.01 6 May 2000 279.08 2.00 13 May 2000 283.30 2.01 20 May 2000 284.79 2.00 27 May 2000 282.06 1.99 3 June 2000 281.32 2.00 10 June 2000 283.41 2.01 17 June 2000 286.97 2.02 24 June 2000 290.96 2.03 1 July 2000 288.87 2.04 8 July 2000 291.09 2.06 15 July 2000 293.48 2.08 22 July 2000 294.48 2.09 29 July 2000 298.71 2.09 5 August 2000 301.91 2.09 12 August 2000 304.89 2.09 19 August 2000 309.24 2.11 26 August 2000 312.60 2.12 2 September 2000 311.49 2.14 9 September 2000 309.94 2.14 16 September 2000 308.29 2.14 23 September 2000 302.44 2.13 30 September 2000 300.19 2.11 7 October 2000 300.05 2.11 14 October 2000 297.15 2.11 21 October 2000 298.93 2.10 28 October 2000 301.09 2.12 4 November 2000 306.75 2.11 11 November 2000 311.38 2.12 18 November 2000 320.55 2.17 25 November 2000 334.38 2.21 2 December 2000 335.98 2.24 9 December 2000 336.83 2.27 16 December 2000 342.32 2.28 23 December 2000 344.11 2.29 30 December 2000 348.01 2.33 6 January 2001 351.98 2.35 13 January 2001 343.09 2.36 20 January 2001 337.94 2.38 27 January 2001 340.21 2.40 3 February 2001 349.78 2.43 10 February 2001 361.55 2.45 17 February 2001 365.31 2.47 24 February 2001 371.18 2.49 3 March 2001 373.28 2.50 10 March 2001 380.04 2.53 17 March 2001 388.72 2.56 24 March 2001 386.74 2.58 31 March 2001 387.86 2.59 7 April 2001 389.25 2.60 14 April 2001 386.92 2.63 21 April 2001 392.51 2.67 28 April 2001 396.85 2.70 5 May 2001 392.66 2.73 12 May 2001 394.27 2.75 19 May 2001 394.82 2.77 26 May 2001 394.73 2.82 2 June 2001 401.03 2.87 9 June 2001 406.21 2.90 16 June 2001 404.21 2.93 23 June 2001 398.03 2.94 30 June 2001 395.01 2.95 7 July 2001 392.68 2.98 14 July 2001 395.43 3.01 21 July 2001 399.78 3.01 28 July 2001 398.07 3.03 4 August 2001 397.90 3.03 11 August 2001 395.09 3.06 18 August 2001 396.03 3.09 25 August 2001 397.80 3.12 1 September 2001 398.23 3.15 8 September 2001 401.67 3.17 15 September 2001 399.85 3.20 22 September 2001 414.38 3.23 29 September 2001 442.96 3.27 6 October 2001 460.01 3.33 13 October 2001 481.95 3.41 20 October 2001 489.14 3.47 27 October 2001 480.81 3.53 3 November 2001 471.69 3.57 10 November 2001 458.13 3.60 17 November 2001 445.62 3.66 24 November 2001 447.66 3.66 1 December 2001 453.93 3.66 8 December 2001 445.27 3.66 15 December 2001 434.69 3.62 22 December 2001 415.82 3.62 29 December 2001 404.90 3.58 5 January 2002 405.87 3.57 12 January 2002 413.03 3.54 19 January 2002 410.24 3.53 26 January 2002 408.57 3.55 2 February 2002 410.31 3.54 9 February 2002 405.19 3.55 16 February 2002 403.28 3.56 23 February 2002 399.25 3.55 2 March 2002 396.06 3.56 9 March 2002 396.47 3.56 16 March 2002 395.06 3.57 23 March 2002 399.25 3.58 30 March 2002 421.04 3.62 6 April 2002 432.51 3.66 13 April 2002 445.02 3.68 20 April 2002 445.27 3.69 27 April 2002 429.02 3.69 4 May 2002 420.15 3.68 11 May 2002 413.05 3.70 18 May 2002 411.93 3.71 25 May 2002 409.33 3.71 1 June 2002 401.37 3.70 8 June 2002 394.94 3.69 15 June 2002 391.00 3.67 22 June 2002 387.19 3.65 29 June 2002 389.23 3.63 6 July 2002 390.18 3.60 13 July 2002 387.31 3.57 20 July 2002 385.06 3.53 27 July 2002 386.23 3.50 3 August 2002 385.29 3.49 10 August 2002 386.52 3.49 17 August 2002 391.59 3.50 24 August 2002 393.51 3.51 31 August 2002 395.24 3.52 7 September 2002 401.87 3.53 14 September 2002 405.08 3.54 21 September 2002 405.72 3.55 28 September 2002 409.36 3.55 5 October 2002 406.45 3.58 12 October 2002 404.59 3.57 19 October 2002 407.36 3.56 26 October 2002 407.38 3.56 2 November 2002 407.54 3.54 9 November 2002 406.33 3.54 16 November 2002 400.71 3.52 23 November 2002 395.87 3.50 30 November 2002 389.08 3.46 7 December 2002 395.36 3.46 14 December 2002 405.37 3.48 21 December 2002 406.42 3.47 28 December 2002 414.38 3.48 4 January 2003 406.41 3.46 11 January 2003 393.60 3.43 18 January 2003 395.57 3.41 25 January 2003 394.95 3.41 1 February 2003 399.99 3.40 8 February 2003 403.01 3.41 15 February 2003 407.46 3.43 22 February 2003 411.06 3.44 1 March 2003 416.70 3.47 8 March 2003 425.18 3.49 15 March 2003 427.73 3.52 22 March 2003 425.11 3.54 29 March 2003 425.08 3.55 5 April 2003 423.38 3.56 12 April 2003 424.31 3.57 19 April 2003 434.00 3.59 26 April 2003 436.05 3.63 3 May 2003 438.74 3.67 10 May 2003 434.54 3.70 17 May 2003 428.46 3.71 24 May 2003 422.10 3.71 31 May 2003 422.94 3.72 7 June 2003 425.97 3.71 14 June 2003 424.99 3.71 21 June 2003 422.35 3.71 28 June 2003 421.78 3.70 5 July 2003 422.75 3.69 12 July 2003 420.53 3.66 19 July 2003 419.23 3.64 26 July 2003 411.42 3.62 2 August 2003 403.52 3.61 9 August 2003 401.40 3.61 16 August 2003 400.09 3.61 23 August 2003 398.38 3.59 30 August 2003 399.80 3.59 6 September 2003 404.20 3.60 13 September 2003 403.37 3.58 20 September 2003 400.39 3.59 27 September 2003 395.43 3.58 4 October 2003 386.58 3.57 11 October 2003 382.02 3.55 18 October 2003 384.05 3.52 25 October 2003 381.95 3.49 1 November 2003 376.07 3.45 8 November 2003 374.91 3.44 15 November 2003 370.54 3.41 22 November 2003 364.32 3.38 29 November 2003 363.03 3.36 6 December 2003 362.06 3.33 13 December 2003 360.41 3.31 20 December 2003 360.49 3.29 27 December 2003 358.49 3.27 3 January 2004 355.03 3.24 10 January 2004 352.44 3.22 17 January 2004 354.80 3.19 24 January 2004 355.84 3.16 31 January 2004 361.55 3.15 7 February 2004 368.85 3.15 14 February 2004 367.03 3.15 21 February 2004 368.98 3.14 28 February 2004 361.94 3.12 6 March 2004 352.65 3.09 13 March 2004 348.67 3.07 20 March 2004 345.30 3.06 27 March 2004 344.07 3.05 3 April 2004 341.99 3.03 10 April 2004 345.66 3.03 17 April 2004 349.59 3.02 24 April 2004 348.68 3.01 1 May 2004 345.84 3.01 8 May 2004 339.42 3.00 15 May 2004 335.66 2.98 22 May 2004 336.25 2.99 29 May 2004 338.86 2.97 5 June 2004 345.11 2.95 12 June 2004 342.60 2.96 19 June 2004 345.44 2.94 26 June 2004 348.82 2.94 3 July 2004 341.17 2.95 10 July 2004 341.86 2.91 17 July 2004 341.65 2.91 24 July 2004 341.57 2.91 31 July 2004 346.35 2.90 7 August 2004 345.18 2.92 14 August 2004 339.99 2.90 21 August 2004 338.32 2.89 28 August 2004 340.50 2.88 4 September 2004 337.76 2.87 11 September 2004 337.51 2.87 18 September 2004 337.84 2.86 25 September 2004 338.20 2.85 2 October 2004 340.78 2.84 9 October 2004 342.45 2.81 16 October 2004 338.51 2.79 23 October 2004 334.63 2.77 30 October 2004 333.47 2.76 6 November 2004 331.61 2.76 13 November 2004 334.36 2.75 20 November 2004 328.53 2.73 27 November 2004 329.37 2.74 4 December 2004 333.09 2.73 11 December 2004 327.78 2.73 18 December 2004 330.28 2.73 25 December 2004 326.25 2.73 1 January 2005 327.43 2.71 8 January 2005 337.94 2.71 15 January 2005 340.45 2.73 22 January 2005 343.34 2.70 29 January 2005 338.68 2.71 5 February 2005 326.38 2.71 12 February 2005 319.93 2.68 19 February 2005 317.84 2.67 26 February 2005 314.13 2.66 5 March 2005 320.51 2.66 12 March 2005 325.17 2.66 19 March 2005 328.15 2.66 26 March 2005 335.46 2.66 2 April 2005 337.16 2.67 9 April 2005 336.22 2.66 16 April 2005 330.40 2.65 23 April 2005 323.41 2.63 30 April 2005 322.00 2.61 7 May 2005 323.06 2.62 14 May 2005 326.29 2.62 21 May 2005 327.13 2.62 28 May 2005 327.89 2.62 4 June 2005 330.49 2.62 11 June 2005 332.88 2.63 18 June 2005 333.21 2.63 25 June 2005 326.20 2.63 2 July 2005 323.14 2.62 9 July 2005 322.47 2.61 16 July 2005 321.86 2.61 23 July 2005 323.78 2.61 30 July 2005 322.12 2.60 6 August 2005 317.80 2.60 13 August 2005 317.77 2.59 20 August 2005 316.90 2.59 27 August 2005 316.68 2.59 3 September 2005 320.36 2.58 10 September 2005 345.89 2.60 17 September 2005 373.26 2.65 24 September 2005 384.32 2.72 1 October 2005 399.04 2.79 8 October 2005 388.86 2.83 15 October 2005 369.35 2.84 22 October 2005 359.71 2.82 29 October 2005 343.51 2.79 5 November 2005 329.27 2.77 12 November 2005 320.11 2.75 19 November 2005 320.18 2.73 26 November 2005 316.74 2.69 3 December 2005 315.93 2.65 10 December 2005 320.07 2.62 17 December 2005 317.45 2.60 24 December 2005 319.77 2.62 31 December 2005 314.35 2.64 7 January 2006 311.05 2.62 14 January 2006 303.86 2.60 21 January 2006 297.00 2.55 28 January 2006 292.70 2.53 4 February 2006 286.82 2.51 11 February 2006 289.71 2.50 18 February 2006 289.03 2.49 25 February 2006 292.22 2.47 4 March 2006 295.37 2.46 11 March 2006 298.35 2.46 18 March 2006 303.41 2.46 25 March 2006 304.32 2.45 1 April 2006 303.42 2.44 8 April 2006 300.84 2.44 15 April 2006 299.17 2.43 22 April 2006 300.81 2.43 29 April 2006 306.96 2.43 6 May 2006 318.48 2.42 13 May 2006 327.81 2.42 20 May 2006 331.47 2.42 27 May 2006 332.57 2.43 3 June 2006 323.01 2.43 10 June 2006 313.04 2.44 17 June 2006 310.61 2.43 24 June 2006 306.10 2.44 1 July 2006 308.65 2.44 8 July 2006 316.35 2.45 15 July 2006 317.09 2.46 22 July 2006 315.97 2.46 29 July 2006 316.23 2.47 5 August 2006 314.35 2.47 12 August 2006 314.81 2.47 19 August 2006 317.77 2.48 26 August 2006 317.43 2.48 2 September 2006 316.59 2.48 9 September 2006 316.40 2.47 16 September 2006 318.55 2.47 23 September 2006 320.71 2.46 30 September 2006 319.39 2.45 7 October 2006 319.85 2.45 14 October 2006 314.78 2.46 21 October 2006 311.86 2.45 28 October 2006 316.10 2.45 4 November 2006 316.51 2.45 11 November 2006 318.94 2.44 18 November 2006 322.05 2.45 25 November 2006 326.02 2.47 2 December 2006 328.08 2.47 9 December 2006 327.58 2.48 16 December 2006 326.04 2.49 23 December 2006 319.77 2.47 30 December 2006 320.72 2.46 6 January 2007 321.14 2.45 13 January 2007 315.75 2.44 20 January 2007 320.15 2.47 27 January 2007 314.87 2.48 3 February 2007 313.47 2.49 10 February 2007 322.39 2.49 17 February 2007 318.87 2.51 24 February 2007 322.39 2.52 3 March 2007 324.81 2.53 10 March 2007 318.43 2.53 17 March 2007 315.80 2.51 24 March 2007 311.54 2.50 31 March 2007 311.29 2.50 7 April 2007 316.31 2.50 14 April 2007 321.05 2.52 21 April 2007 323.68 2.52 28 April 2007 321.31 2.53 5 May 2007 313.68 2.52 12 May 2007 305.95 2.51 19 May 2007 304.58 2.50 26 May 2007 304.89 2.50 2 June 2007 308.49 2.51 9 June 2007 311.50 2.51 16 June 2007 314.87 2.51 23 June 2007 316.03 2.52 30 June 2007 318.54 2.53 7 July 2007 316.16 2.54 14 July 2007 312.42 2.55 21 July 2007 310.66 2.55 28 July 2007 308.56 2.55 4 August 2007 312.11 2.55 11 August 2007 315.58 2.55 18 August 2007 320.11 2.56 25 August 2007 324.90 2.57 1 September 2007 325.28 2.58 8 September 2007 324.99 2.58 15 September 2007 323.15 2.58 22 September 2007 317.27 2.57 29 September 2007 318.36 2.55 6 October 2007 317.00 2.55 13 October 2007 321.81 2.55 20 October 2007 327.95 2.56 27 October 2007 329.98 2.57 3 November 2007 331.94 2.58 10 November 2007 332.01 2.59 17 November 2007 331.87 2.60 24 November 2007 336.10 2.61 1 December 2007 340.08 2.62 8 December 2007 339.81 2.64 15 December 2007 343.80 2.65 22 December 2007 344.86 2.68 29 December 2007 344.60 2.69 5 January 2008 342.79 2.72 12 January 2008 334.45 2.71 19 January 2008 327.12 2.70 26 January 2008 333.92 2.72 2 February 2008 339.19 2.71 9 February 2008 345.05 2.74 16 February 2008 349.57 2.75 23 February 2008 347.75 2.76 1 March 2008 346.04 2.78 8 March 2008 348.20 2.80 15 March 2008 356.38 2.83 22 March 2008 359.31 2.87 29 March 2008 374.66 2.91 5 April 2008 376.64 2.94 12 April 2008 376.59 2.96 19 April 2008 370.13 2.98 26 April 2008 364.30 3.00 3 May 2008 367.33 3.02 10 May 2008 367.18 3.05 17 May 2008 372.93 3.07 24 May 2008 371.21 3.08 31 May 2008 369.01 3.10 7 June 2008 372.03 3.10 14 June 2008 376.11 3.10 21 June 2008 379.30 3.11 28 June 2008 390.52 3.13 5 July 2008 381.07 3.14 12 July 2008 378.01 3.13 19 July 2008 382.43 ND Note. 4-week moving averages. Figure: Layoffs and Job Cuts Period Layoffs and discharges Announced job cuts (Thousands) (Percent of private employment) January 1999 ND 57.16 February 1999 ND 65.29 March 1999 ND 69.41 April 1999 ND 58.19 May 1999 ND 73.77 June 1999 ND 79.45 July 1999 ND 55.48 August 1999 ND 62.14 September 1999 ND 63.07 October 1999 ND 5.53 November 1999 ND 46.12 December 1999 ND 39.16 January 2000 ND 27.92 February 2000 ND 37.69 March 2000 ND 58.08 April 2000 ND 38.07 May 2000 ND 47.72 June 2000 ND 35.07 July 2000 ND 65.36 August 2000 ND 62.89 September 2000 ND 50.06 October 2000 ND 25.77 November 2000 ND 37.56 December 2000 1.228 126.62 January 2001 1.333 119.06 February 2001 1.301 103.77 March 2001 1.377 167.03 April 2001 1.338 166.55 May 2001 1.426 100.24 June 2001 1.325 142.70 July 2001 1.453 209.22 August 2001 1.356 146.11 September 2001 1.503 248.59 October 2001 1.683 224.73 November 2001 1.681 173.52 December 2001 1.424 154.63 January 2002 1.241 190.89 February 2002 1.395 128.62 March 2002 1.375 108.23 April 2002 1.329 113.04 May 2002 1.428 104.56 June 2002 1.431 112.20 July 2002 1.362 86.51 August 2002 1.352 122.45 September 2002 1.295 68.91 October 2002 1.386 159.85 November 2002 1.588 148.70 December 2002 1.413 87.66 January 2003 1.461 110.76 February 2003 1.387 137.33 March 2003 1.367 93.46 April 2003 1.419 145.70 May 2003 1.331 86.49 June 2003 1.536 77.51 July 2003 1.475 93.26 August 2003 1.446 82.66 September 2003 1.391 73.93 October 2003 1.384 155.57 November 2003 1.392 90.19 December 2003 1.601 90.41 January 2004 1.378 96.67 February 2004 1.481 74.48 March 2004 1.462 78.51 April 2004 1.510 70.24 May 2004 1.444 88.95 June 2004 1.339 82.58 July 2004 1.388 80.14 August 2004 1.545 76.16 September 2004 1.475 105.12 October 2004 1.477 84.65 November 2004 1.387 93.76 December 2004 1.499 108.64 January 2005 1.498 72.30 February 2005 1.475 103.53 March 2005 1.456 100.20 April 2005 1.511 55.19 May 2005 1.446 95.34 June 2005 1.451 127.32 July 2005 1.405 116.66 August 2005 1.344 73.12 September 2005 1.459 69.30 October 2005 1.260 63.96 November 2005 1.277 86.12 December 2005 1.304 107.97 January 2006 1.206 86.24 February 2006 1.277 80.10 March 2006 1.356 81.36 April 2006 1.217 56.98 May 2006 1.447 64.22 June 2006 1.259 80.75 July 2006 1.314 53.45 August 2006 1.251 68.37 September 2006 1.137 96.71 October 2006 1.346 54.94 November 2006 1.361 61.93 December 2006 1.314 53.82 January 2007 1.313 49.13 February 2007 1.281 75.14 March 2007 1.256 65.99 April 2007 1.333 69.37 May 2007 1.238 78.42 June 2007 1.362 66.67 July 2007 1.318 60.32 August 2007 1.358 82.60 September 2007 1.429 66.21 October 2007 1.438 53.47 November 2007 1.449 58.44 December 2007 1.316 42.60 January 2008 1.414 63.42 February 2008 1.385 62.53 March 2008 1.357 69.89 April 2008 1.344 89.63 May 2008 1.436 108.53 ND 91.14 June 2008 Note. Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Source. For layoffs and discharges, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for job cuts, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, Inc. Figure: Job Openings and Hires Percent of private employment Period Job openings Hires December 2000 3.5 4.1 January 2001 3.5 4.1 February 2001 3.4 4.0 March 2001 3.1 4.0 April 2001 3.1 3.9 May 2001 3.0 3.8 June 2001 2.9 3.7 July 2001 2.7 3.7 August 2001 2.6 3.6 September 2001 2.6 3.7 October 2001 2.4 3.8 November 2001 2.4 3.7 December 2001 2.3 3.5 January 2002 2.3 3.4 February 2002 2.3 3.6 March 2002 2.3 3.3 April 2002 2.3 3.6 May 2002 2.3 3.6 June 2002 2.3 3.5 July 2002 2.3 3.8 August 2002 2.3 3.5 September 2002 2.3 3.6 October 2002 2.4 3.3 November 2002 2.3 3.4 December 2002 2.1 3.4 January 2003 2.3 3.5 February 2003 2.2 3.4 March 2003 2.1 3.4 April 2003 2.2 3.4 May 2003 2.2 3.4 June 2003 2.3 3.5 July 2003 2.2 3.6 August 2003 2.2 3.6 September 2003 2.1 3.6 October 2003 2.2 3.6 November 2003 2.3 3.6 December 2003 2.3 3.7 January 2004 2.3 3.6 February 2004 2.3 3.5 March 2004 2.4 4.1 April 2004 2.5 3.9 May 2004 2.5 3.7 June 2004 2.5 3.9 July 2004 2.6 3.7 August 2004 2.6 3.9 September 2004 2.6 3.8 October 2004 2.6 3.9 November 2004 2.5 4.3 December 2004 2.6 4.0 January 2005 2.6 4.0 February 2005 2.7 4.0 March 2005 2.8 4.1 April 2005 2.8 3.9 May 2005 2.7 4.0 June 2005 2.8 3.9 July 2005 2.8 3.9 August 2005 2.8 4.0 September 2005 2.9 4.0 October 2005 3.0 4.0 November 2005 3.1 4.0 December 2005 3.0 3.9 January 2006 3.0 4.0 February 2006 3.1 4.2 March 2006 3.1 4.0 April 2006 3.0 3.8 May 2006 3.2 4.1 June 2006 3.0 4.0 July 2006 2.9 4.2 August 2006 3.0 3.9 September 2006 3.1 3.9 October 2006 3.1 4.0 November 2006 3.1 4.0 December 2006 3.2 3.9 January 2007 3.2 4.0 February 2007 3.1 3.9 March 2007 3.1 3.9 April 2007 3.1 3.8 May 2007 3.1 3.9 June 2007 3.2 3.8 July 2007 3.1 3.9 August 2007 3.1 3.8 September 2007 3.1 3.7 October 2007 3.0 3.9 November 2007 3.0 3.7 December 2007 3.0 3.7 January 2008 2.9 3.7 February 2008 2.8 3.6 March 2008 2.7 3.6 April 2008 2.7 3.7 May 2008 2.7 3.5 Source. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Figure: Job Availability and Hard-to-Fill Positions Period Job availability* (Index) Hard-to-fill** (Percent, 3-month moving average) January 1999 133.58 29.45 February 1999 135.42 29.94 March 1999 133.24 30.60 April 1999 134.75 31.75 May 1999 133.97 30.68 June 1999 133.67 30.00 July 1999 135.28 28.80 August 1999 136.00 28.85 September 1999 135.30 28.69 October 1999 138.25 29.71 November 1999 139.15 30.89 December 1999 141.11 31.70 January 2000 143.77 31.44 February 2000 139.96 31.60 March 2000 140.90 31.90 April 2000 139.87 32.65 May 2000 140.83 33.62 June 2000 140.83 33.73 July 2000 143.40 33.58 August 2000 141.25 33.57 September 2000 142.77 33.34 October 2000 141.70 33.05 November 2000 142.13 33.57 December 2000 139.83 33.37 January 2001 135.86 33.11 February 2001 131.86 31.60 March 2001 129.60 29.50 April 2001 125.27 27.53 May 2001 123.70 25.84 June 2001 122.43 26.09 July 2001 118.65 26.01 August 2001 116.88 26.99 September 2001 109.64 26.70 October 2001 103.74 25.40 November 2001 97.30 21.95 December 2001 97.77 20.10 January 2002 95.37 19.46 February 2002 96.11 19.57 March 2002 98.21 19.38 April 2002 97.27 19.74 May 2002 97.98 19.75 June 2002 94.59 20.46 July 2002 92.27 21.12 August 2002 92.81 21.08 September 2002 92.45 19.34 October 2002 90.77 18.36 November 2002 89.55 19.32 December 2002 84.53 19.23 January 2003 84.86 19.12 February 2003 81.44 18.17 March 2003 77.98 18.60 April 2003 82.26 17.72 May 2003 77.90 16.74 June 2003 76.90 16.47 July 2003 75.71 16.16 August 2003 76.49 17.43 September 2003 77.25 18.31 October 2003 81.52 19.31 November 2003 86.84 19.03 December 2003 83.59 19.37 January 2004 84.00 19.46 February 2004 84.99 19.44 March 2004 83.73 19.84 April 2004 85.88 20.40 May 2004 84.79 21.43 June 2004 89.94 20.82 July 2004 91.99 21.86 August 2004 91.81 21.43 September 2004 91.58 21.57 October 2004 93.06 21.58 November 2004 92.29 22.06 December 2004 94.81 23.17 January 2005 95.00 22.14 February 2005 97.45 22.42 March 2005 96.80 22.45 April 2005 95.68 23.07 May 2005 97.34 23.08 June 2005 98.31 21.81 July 2005 97.16 21.54 100.16 21.43 98.92 22.56 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 99.14 22.58 November 2005 100.84 23.41 December 2005 102.32 23.23 January 2006 104.65 24.48 February 2006 105.50 24.43 March 2006 106.45 24.39 April 2006 108.01 26.03 May 2006 107.50 26.01 June 2006 106.75 26.79 July 2006 107.08 24.91 August 2006 103.18 24.50 September 2006 108.57 24.58 October 2006 107.76 25.58 November 2006 106.97 25.42 December 2006 107.58 23.61 January 2007 107.67 22.81 February 2007 107.99 23.12 March 2007 109.67 25.02 April 2007 107.18 25.00 May 2007 108.00 24.92 June 2007 106.24 25.09 July 2007 109.41 24.59 August 2007 107.66 24.56 September 2007 106.33 24.28 October 2007 105.37 23.94 November 2007 105.24 22.76 December 2007 102.12 21.66 January 2008 100.87 21.80 February 2008 96.16 21.44 March 2008 92.78 20.33 April 2008 87.78 19.33 May 2008 86.37 17.89 June 2008 83.80 18.70 July 2008 81.33 ND * Proportion of households believing jobs are plentiful, minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get, plus 100. Return to table ** Percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one "hard-to-fill" job opening. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table Source. For job availability, Conference Board; for hard-to-fill, National Federation of Independent Business. Figure: Expected Labor Market Conditions Index Period Reuters/Michigan Conference Board January 1999 85 99.1 February 1999 92 100.5 March 1999 87 102.1 April 1999 91 104.4 May 1999 90 104.7 June 1999 98 108.1 July 1999 91 104.3 August 1999 87 104.6 September 1999 90 102.8 October 1999 88 101.3 November 1999 89 104.4 December 1999 95 105.9 January 2000 96 106.8 February 2000 94 105.6 March 2000 91 104.0 April 2000 91 104.8 May 2000 96 109.5 June 2000 88 106.6 July 2000 89 107.4 August 2000 92 106.1 September 2000 89 107.8 October 2000 83 105.8 November 2000 86 101.1 December 2000 73 98.3 January 2001 61 90.2 February 2001 57 84.3 March 2001 57 91.8 April 2001 54 89.4 May 2001 62 94.2 June 2001 65 97.5 July 2001 60 98.6 August 2001 58 98.0 September 2001 49 90.4 October 2001 50 84.9 November 2001 57 88.1 December 2001 65 97.2 January 2002 77 100.9 February 2002 76 98.8 March 2002 88 107.2 April 2002 91 107.4 May 2002 89 107.6 June 2002 85 106.1 July 2002 68 100.3 August 2002 71 99.6 September 2002 80 100.5 October 2002 69 93.2 November 2002 77 96.6 December 2002 73 95.2 January 2003 69 93.0 February 2003 70 83.9 March 2003 70 84.3 April 2003 80 95.5 May 2003 93 100.1 June 2003 85 102.0 July 2003 84 97.0 August 2003 89 99.4 September 2003 86 95.5 October 2003 83 99.2 November 2003 95 100.5 December 2003 102 106.1 January 2004 105 104.8 February 2004 95 97.6 March 2004 92 98.4 April 2004 93 100.6 May 2004 93 101.4 June 2004 104 103.1 July 2004 107 106.0 August 2004 94 101.2 September 2004 95 101.6 October 2004 95 98.4 November 2004 94 98.3 December 2004 97 101.1 January 2005 89 101.5 February 2005 89 98.5 March 2005 88 99.3 April 2005 82 95.6 May 2005 81 99.2 June 2005 84 99.0 July 2005 83 98.9 August 2005 77 99.1 September 2005 63 89.2 October 2005 66 88.3 November 2005 78 96.0 December 2005 74 96.7 January 2006 73 98.4 February 2006 72 93.5 March 2006 71 97.3 April 2006 71 99.1 May 2006 73 96.8 June 2006 73 98.3 July 2006 71 97.8 August 2006 70 96.1 September 2006 75 98.2 October 2006 78 97.1 November 2006 79 97.2 December 2006 79 98.4 January 2007 85 98.2 February 2007 75 99.1 March 2007 77 96.7 April 2007 71 97.6 May 2007 80 98.0 June 2007 75 97.0 July 2007 77 98.9 August 2007 69 97.7 September 2007 73 94.7 October 2007 70 93.1 November 2007 72 87.8 December 2007 61 91.0 January 2008 59 88.6 February 2008 59 80.9 March 2008 52 78.7 April 2008 46 75.9 May 2008 47 76.7 June 2008 41 72.3 July 2008 46 71.1 Note. The proportion of households expecting labor market conditions to improve, minus the proportion expecting conditions to worsen, plus 100. Figure: Net Hiring Plans: Manpower, Inc. Period Percent 1999:Q1 21 1999:Q2 21 1999:Q3 21 1999:Q4 22 2000:Q1 21 2000:Q2 24 2000:Q3 25 2000:Q4 24 2001:Q1 24 2001:Q2 18 2001:Q3 14 2001:Q4 12 2002:Q1 7 2002:Q2 9 2002:Q3 15 2002:Q4 14 2003:Q1 15 2003:Q2 11 2003:Q3 7 2003:Q4 10 2004:Q1 14 2004:Q2 20 2004:Q3 20 2004:Q4 20 2005:Q1 21 2005:Q2 21 2005:Q3 21 2005:Q4 20 2006:Q1 20 2006:Q2 21 2006:Q3 21 2006:Q4 20 2007:Q1 19 2007:Q2 18 2007:Q3 18 2007:Q4 18 2008:Q1 17 2008:Q2 14 2008:Q3 12 Note. Percent planning an increase in employment minus percent planning a reduction. Figure: Net Hiring Plans: National Federation of Independent Business* (3-month moving average) Period Percent January 1999 16.65 February 1999 16.64 March 1999 16.15 April 1999 17.11 May 1999 16.17 June 1999 16.15 July 1999 15.04 August 1999 15.86 September 1999 17.09 October 1999 18.06 November 1999 19.30 December 1999 19.26 January 2000 19.15 February 2000 18.48 March 2000 17.26 April 2000 17.18 May 2000 16.45 June 2000 15.09 July 2000 15.20 August 2000 15.90 September 2000 17.59 October 2000 16.41 November 2000 14.52 December 2000 12.40 January 2001 12.56 February 2001 13.61 March 2001 14.68 April 2001 13.64 May 2001 12.69 June 2001 11.32 July 2001 11.62 August 2001 12.60 September 2001 12.56 October 2001 10.77 November 2001 9.45 December 2001 7.85 January 2002 9.02 February 2002 8.24 March 2002 10.62 April 2002 11.10 May 2002 12.69 June 2002 12.98 July 2002 12.07 August 2002 11.15 September 2002 9.22 October 2002 9.78 November 2002 9.25 December 2002 10.23 January 2003 8.73 February 2003 8.13 March 2003 5.90 April 2003 6.55 May 2003 7.10 June 2003 9.31 July 2003 10.32 August 2003 10.90 September 2003 10.99 October 2003 11.35 November 2003 11.85 December 2003 14.46 January 2004 15.44 February 2004 15.95 March 2004 15.21 April 2004 14.95 May 2004 14.92 June 2004 14.39 July 2004 14.37 August 2004 15.15 September 2004 15.00 October 2004 14.85 November 2004 15.94 December 2004 16.38 January 2005 16.13 February 2005 15.10 March 2005 14.48 April 2005 13.94 May 2005 13.82 June 2005 13.89 July 2005 14.57 August 2005 14.02 September 2005 14.90 October 2005 15.64 November 2005 15.33 December 2005 14.39 January 2006 14.21 February 2006 14.97 March 2006 14.72 April 2006 15.22 May 2006 15.04 June 2006 14.08 July 2006 13.39 August 2006 13.17 September 2006 15.08 October 2006 15.14 November 2006 16.76 December 2006 14.48 January 2007 14.63 February 2007 12.26 March 2007 14.66 April 2007 14.13 May 2007 14.83 June 2007 13.81 July 2007 13.50 August 2007 12.92 September 2007 12.70 October 2007 11.70 November 2007 11.28 December 2007 10.49 January 2008 9.68 February 2008 9.26 March 2008 8.35 April 2008 7.77 May 2008 5.54 June 2008 5.13 Note. Percent planning an increase in employment minus percent planning a reduction. * Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to table Selected Components of Industrial Production (Percent change from preceding comparable period) Component Proportion 2007 (percent) 2008 20071 Q1 2008 Q2 Apr. May Annual rate June Monthly rate Total 100.0 2.1 .5 -3.1 -.7 -.2 .5 Previous 100.0 2.1 -.3 … -.7 -.2 … 78.7 2.3 -.9 -3.7 -.9 -.1 .2 73.6 2.6 .0 -1.9 -.5 -.1 -.1 69.3 1.3 -1.1 -3.2 -.7 -.1 -.2 Mining 11.6 .2 3.1 1.4 -.4 .3 1.1 Utilities 9.7 3.1 9.6 -3.7 .4 -2.1 2.1 Manufacturing Ex. motor veh. and parts Ex. high-tech industries Selected industries Energy 24.7 2.3 7.6 -1.3 .2 -.8 1.2 High technology 4.3 22.3 17.7 19.7 1.3 .1 1.8 Computers 1.0 16.7 22.8 5.7 -.2 .3 .8 Communications equipment 1.3 20.6 6.8 20.4 2.6 .1 1.6 2.0 25.9 22.8 26.3 1.3 .1 2.4 5.1 -2.2 -14.3 -28.5 -6.7 .6 5.4 Total ex. selected industries 65.9 1.1 -2.0 -3.1 -.8 .0 -.2 Consumer goods 19.9 .3 -1.4 -1.3 -.6 .1 -.2 3.6 -2.4 -10.3 -4.4 -.9 -.1 -.7 16.3 .9 .6 -.6 -.6 .1 -.1 Semiconductors 2 Motor vehicles and parts Durables Nondurables Business equipment 7.3 2.8 2.8 -6.2 -2.0 .1 -.1 Defense and space equipment 1.7 4.2 1.0 -4.5 -.3 -1.0 1.1 Construction supplies 4.2 -1.9 -7.8 -6.9 -1.2 .5 -.9 Business supplies 7.4 -.1 -3.4 -4.4 -1.0 -.2 -.7 25.4 1.8 -2.7 -2.7 -.4 -.2 -.1 Durables 13.6 2.9 -.9 -3.2 -.5 -.6 .2 Nondurables 11.7 .6 -4.7 -2.0 -.4 .3 -.4 Materials 1. From fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of year shown. Return to table 2. Includes related electronic components. Return to table … Not applicable. Return to table Capacity Utilization (Percent of capacity) Sector 19722007 average Total industry 199495 high 2007 200102 low 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 May June 81.0 85.1 73.6 81.0 80.6 79.8 79.6 79.9 79.7 84.6 71.5 79.3 78.7 77.6 77.6 77.6 Manufacturing 79.9 84.3 71.2 79.8 79.4 78.6 78.6 78.4 Mining Ex. motor veh. and parts 87.5 88.7 84.8 90.2 90.4 90.5 90.3 91.2 Utilities 86.8 93.9 84.6 85.9 86.7 86.1 84.9 86.5 Stage-of-process groups Crude 86.6 89.5 81.9 89.3 89.5 89.5 89.6 89.7 Primary and semifinished 82.2 88.2 74.6 81.3 80.8 79.9 79.6 79.9 Finished 77.7 80.4 69.9 77.6 77.2 75.9 75.8 76.0 Production of Domestic Light Vehicles (Millions of units at an annual rate except as noted) 2007 2008 Item Q4 U.S. production 1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Mar. Apr. May June 10.3 9.7 8.6 9.4 9.1 8.2 8.4 9.1 Autos 4.0 3.9 3.6 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 Light trucks 6.3 5.7 4.9 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.8 5.3 Days' supply2 64 65 72 n.a. 67 72 69 75 Autos 51 Light trucks 51 47 n.a. 52 44 49 76 80 88 95 100 n.a. 2.45 2.47 2.36 2.41 .84 .78 n.a. .84 .85 .77 .78 1.61 1.63 n.a. 1.61 1.62 1.59 1.63 10.5 Memo: U.S. production, total motor vehicles 4 n.a. 2.41 1.69 Light trucks 95 2.45 .90 Autos 76 2.59 Inventories3 9.9 8.8 9.6 9.4 8.4 8.7 9.3 Note. FRB seasonals. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Production rates for the third quarter reflect the latest industry schedules. Return to table 2. Quarterly values are calculated with end-of-period stocks and average reported sales. Return to table 3. End-of-period stocks. Return to table 4. Includes medium and heavy trucks. Return to table n.a. Not available. Return to table Figure: Inventories of Light Vehicles Period 53 Millions of units January 1998 2.887 February 1998 2.922 March 1998 2.952 April 1998 2.939 May 1998 2.879 June 1998 2.560 July 1998 2.464 August 1998 2.572 September 1998 2.596 October 1998 2.651 November 1998 2.671 December 1998 2.686 January 1999 2.732 February 1999 2.777 March 1999 2.828 April 1999 2.876 May 1999 2.873 June 1999 2.867 July 1999 2.849 August 1999 2.912 September 1999 2.909 October 1999 3.020 November 1999 3.048 December 1999 3.062 January 2000 3.092 February 2000 3.047 March 2000 3.066 April 2000 3.072 May 2000 3.099 June 2000 3.173 July 2000 3.263 August 2000 3.311 September 2000 3.289 October 2000 3.266 November 2000 3.267 December 2000 3.301 January 2001 3.204 February 2001 3.066 March 2001 2.995 April 2001 2.918 May 2001 2.888 June 2001 2.843 July 2001 2.837 August 2001 2.935 September 2001 2.882 October 2001 2.450 November 2001 2.418 December 2001 2.481 January 2002 2.539 February 2002 2.574 March 2002 2.551 April 2002 2.613 May 2002 2.699 June 2002 2.759 July 2002 2.725 August 2002 2.718 September 2002 2.801 October 2002 2.899 November 2002 3.017 December 2002 2.874 January 2003 2.951 February 2003 3.013 March 2003 3.092 April 2003 3.094 May 2003 3.100 June 2003 3.086 July 2003 3.103 August 2003 3.009 September 2003 3.101 October 2003 3.140 November 2003 3.140 December 2003 3.171 January 2004 3.148 February 2004 3.189 March 2004 3.257 April 2004 3.311 May 2004 3.264 June 2004 3.304 July 2004 3.337 August 2004 3.421 September 2004 3.301 October 2004 3.280 November 2004 3.236 December 2004 3.188 January 2005 3.219 February 2005 3.262 March 2005 3.120 April 2005 3.119 May 2005 3.061 June 2005 2.943 July 2005 2.616 August 2005 2.688 September 2005 2.782 October 2005 2.974 November 2005 3.020 December 2005 2.996 January 2006 2.953 February 2006 2.933 March 2006 2.989 April 2006 2.939 May 2006 2.986 June 2006 3.040 July 2006 3.018 August 2006 2.993 September 2006 2.970 October 2006 2.883 November 2006 2.794 December 2006 2.810 January 2007 2.749 February 2007 2.696 March 2007 2.674 April 2007 2.642 May 2007 2.601 June 2007 2.675 July 2007 2.872 August 2007 2.845 September 2007 2.747 October 2007 2.749 November 2007 2.745 December 2007 2.592 January 2008 2.560 February 2008 2.589 March 2008 2.449 April 2008 2.474 May 2008 2.356 June 2008 2.407 Figure: Days' Supply of Light Vehicles Days Period Using sales in current month January 1998 67.45 February 1998 70.09 March 1998 69.60 April 1998 66.68 May 1998 60.58 June 1998 54.78 July 1998 62.25 August 1998 64.79 September 1998 57.48 October 1998 56.28 November 1998 60.66 December 1998 56.47 January 1999 60.26 February 1999 59.79 March 1999 61.80 April 1999 62.48 May 1999 60.77 June 1999 60.86 July 1999 59.69 August 1999 60.88 September 1999 61.05 October 1999 65.03 November 1999 65.35 December 1999 62.30 January 2000 62.26 February 2000 58.67 March 2000 62.58 April 2000 64.82 May 2000 65.31 June 2000 68.68 July 2000 71.74 August 2000 70.87 September 2000 66.01 October 2000 70.66 November 2000 74.49 December 2000 78.12 January 2001 68.70 February 2001 64.65 March 2001 65.93 April 2001 66.86 May 2001 65.35 June 2001 61.50 July 2001 66.20 August 2001 69.61 September 2001 67.73 October 2001 41.34 November 2001 50.82 December 2001 60.20 January 2002 60.97 February 2002 57.93 March 2002 58.42 April 2002 57.40 May 2002 65.36 June 2002 63.67 July 2002 58.41 August 2002 56.52 September 2002 66.54 October 2002 69.42 November 2002 72.33 December 2002 62.40 January 2003 69.69 February 2003 73.99 March 2003 74.59 April 2003 72.23 May 2003 73.43 June 2003 70.85 July 2003 70.78 August 2003 63.69 September 2003 70.23 October 2003 74.15 November 2003 69.64 December 2003 70.36 January 2004 73.19 February 2004 74.00 March 2004 74.55 April 2004 77.43 May 2004 70.42 June 2004 81.85 July 2004 75.62 August 2004 78.39 September 2004 72.12 October 2004 75.67 November 2004 74.50 December 2004 70.30 January 2005 75.84 February 2005 77.46 March 2005 71.35 April 2005 70.33 May 2005 70.16 June 2005 62.96 July 2005 47.80 August 2005 61.51 September 2005 65.69 October 2005 79.41 November 2005 72.61 December 2005 68.25 January 2006 64.29 February 2006 68.64 March 2006 70.51 April 2006 70.34 May 2006 73.36 June 2006 74.42 July 2006 71.22 August 2006 73.46 September 2006 70.97 October 2006 71.26 November 2006 69.61 December 2006 66.78 January 2007 67.82 February 2007 65.26 March 2007 66.65 April 2007 65.18 May 2007 64.11 June 2007 69.29 July 2007 76.01 August 2007 68.66 September 2007 67.61 October 2007 69.11 November 2007 68.04 December 2007 64.04 January 2008 66.89 February 2008 68.06 March 2008 67.43 April 2008 71.88 May 2008 69.27 June 2008 74.82 A second series shown in the figure, "Using 3-month moving average of sales", begins at about 66 days in 1998, increases to about 70 shortly after, then decreases to about 55 in 1998:Q3. It generally increases to about 75 in 2000:Q4, then generally decreases to about 49 in 2001:Q4, and generally increases to about 80 in 2004:Q3. The series generally decreases to about 54 in 2005:Q3, increases to about 75 in 2005:Q4, and it ends at about 71 in June 2008. Indicators of High-Tech Manufacturing Activity Figure: Rate of Change in Semiconductor Industrial Production 3-month moving average Percent Period MPUs Non-MPUs January 2002 5.86 0.81 February 2002 6.31 0.57 March 2002 4.41 1.27 April 2002 2.89 3.24 May 2002 4.28 4.95 June 2002 6.31 5.51 July 2002 6.06 4.75 August 2002 3.77 2.95 September 2002 2.51 1.40 October 2002 4.35 0.63 November 2002 7.44 0.61 December 2002 8.71 0.82 January 2003 8.51 1.29 February 2003 8.42 2.36 March 2003 8.01 2.89 April 2003 6.78 2.50 May 2003 6.16 1.86 June 2003 7.63 1.50 July 2003 8.26 1.39 August 2003 4.85 1.48 September 2003 0.78 2.48 October 2003 -0.42 3.68 November 2003 1.10 3.74 December 2003 1.98 3.06 January 2004 0.53 2.53 February 2004 0.48 2.27 March 2004 2.35 2.13 April 2004 2.89 2.32 May 2004 1.58 2.99 June 2004 -0.05 2.97 July 2004 0.48 1.94 August 2004 3.39 1.36 September 2004 5.49 1.85 October 2004 4.59 3.03 November 2004 1.21 3.81 December 2004 -1.48 3.78 January 2005 -0.99 3.70 February 2005 0.06 3.62 March 2005 0.78 3.17 April 2005 1.69 2.25 May 2005 1.28 1.44 June 2005 -0.13 1.57 July 2005 -1.00 2.24 August 2005 1.74 2.79 September 2005 6.00 2.73 October 2005 6.37 1.94 November 2005 3.59 1.00 December 2005 1.19 0.40 January 2006 1.99 0.23 February 2006 4.36 -0.13 March 2006 3.75 -0.80 April 2006 1.12 -1.16 May 2006 0.40 -0.95 June 2006 1.59 -0.28 July 2006 2.83 0.65 August 2006 3.37 1.59 September 2006 3.58 2.09 October 2006 4.43 2.04 November 2006 4.94 1.96 December 2006 4.45 1.85 January 2007 2.00 1.43 February 2007 -0.41 1.25 1.29 1.48 March 2007 April 2007 5.10 1.33 May 2007 5.94 0.88 June 2007 6.07 1.32 July 2007 6.56 2.72 August 2007 4.76 3.12 September 2007 2.62 2.07 October 2007 2.43 2.17 November 2007 4.51 2.45 December 2007 3.47 2.91 January 2008 0.74 2.32 February 2008 2.28 2.16 March 2008 4.72 2.55 April 2008 4.43 2.20 May 2008 2.36 1.90 June 2008 1.87 1.67 Note. MPU is a microprocessor unit. Figure: Circuit Board Orders and Shipments A line chart shows two series, "Shipments", and "Orders" from 2002, through June 2008. Unit is billions of dollars. The "Shipments" series begins at about $119.9 billion in 2002, increases to about 130 in 2002:Q2, it generally decreases to about 91 in 2003:Q1, and generally increases to about 135 in 2004:Q2. It then decreases to about 122 in 2004:Q4, generally increases to about 147 in 2006:Q2, generally decreases to about 125 in 2007:Q1. The series generally increases to about 140 in 2007:Q4, it fluctuates between 125 and 140 and decreases to end at about 130 in June 2008. The "Orders" series begins at about $125 billion in 2002, increases to about 131 in 2002:Q2, it generally decreases to about 89 in 2003:Q2, and generally increases to about 170 in 2004:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 95 in 2004:Q4, generally increases to about 177 in 2005:Q3, generally decreases to about 122 in 2006:Q4. The series fluctuates between about 125 and 145 through 2008:Q1, and decreases to end at about 125 in April 2008. Note. U.S. and Canadian shipments of bare and loaded circuit boards. Source. Institute for Printed Circuits. Figure: U.S. Personal Computer and Server Absorption Millions of units, ratio scale Period PCs Servers 2002:Q1 11.31 0.405 2002:Q2 11.14 0.406 2002:Q3 11.24 0.418 2002:Q4 11.27 0.439 2003:Q1 11.51 0.459 2003:Q2 12.21 0.496 2003:Q3 12.77 0.519 2003:Q4 12.92 0.543 2004:Q1 13.08 0.565 2004:Q2 12.91 0.574 2004:Q3 13.18 0.600 2004:Q4 13.88 0.630 2005:Q1 13.90 0.646 2005:Q2 14.20 0.651 2005:Q3 14.71 0.640 2005:Q4 14.82 0.688 2006:Q1 14.88 0.669 2006:Q2 15.11 0.676 2006:Q3 14.88 0.699 2006:Q4 14.89 0.679 2007:Q1 15.72 0.704 2007:Q2 16.08 0.717 2007:Q3 15.90 0.712 2007:Q4 16.52 0.732 2008:Q1 16.42 0.747 2008:Q2 16.62 0.750 Note. FRB seasonals. PCs include desktops, notebooks, and ultra portables. Q2 server units are an IDC Forecast. Source. International Data Corporation. Figure: MPU Shipments and Intel Revenue Billions of dollars, ratio scale Period Worldwide MPU shipments Intel revenue 2002:Q1 6.31 6.89 2002:Q2 5.87 6.69 2002:Q3 5.74 6.52 2002:Q4 5.97 6.67 2003:Q1 6.14 6.84 2003:Q2 6.40 7.22 2003:Q3 7.40 7.82 2003:Q4 7.53 8.13 2004:Q1 7.21 8.19 2004:Q2 7.56 8.58 2004:Q3 7.45 8.48 2004:Q4 7.94 8.90 2005:Q1 8.43 9.57 2005:Q2 8.96 9.91 2005:Q3 8.96 9.90 2005:Q4 8.57 9.45 2006:Q1 8.42 9.09 2006:Q2 7.26 8.63 2006:Q3 7.80 8.60 2006:Q4 8.39 8.95 2007:Q1 7.79 9.10 2007:Q2 8.48 9.40 2007:Q3 9.44 9.92 2007:Q4 9.29 9.88 2008:Q1 8.70 9.94 2008:Q2 ND 10.28 Note. FRB seasonals. MPU is a microprocessor unit. Q3 Intel revenue is the range of the company's guidance as of July 15, 2008 (approximately $9.75 to $10.4 billion). Source. Intel and Semiconductor Industry Association. Figure: Capital Expenditures by Selected Telecommunications Service Providers Billions of dollars, ratio scale Period Expenditures 2002:Q1 47.64 2002:Q2 44.79 2002:Q3 39.55 2002:Q4 41.99 2003:Q1 33.09 2003:Q2 31.39 2003:Q3 36.03 2003:Q4 38.36 2004:Q1 36.88 2004:Q2 36.17 2004:Q3 34.28 2004:Q4 35.84 2005:Q1 39.05 2005:Q2 42.18 2005:Q3 39.87 2005:Q4 38.96 2006:Q1 46.63 2006:Q2 41.27 2006:Q3 45.19 2006:Q4 43.13 2007:Q1 42.76 2007:Q2 41.79 2007:Q3 41.97 2007:Q4 43.18 2008:Q1 44.67 2008:Q2 44.21 As shown in the figure, the capital expenditures series begins at about $61 billion in 2000:Q1, increases to about 72.5 in 2000:Q3, decreases to about 65 in 2000:Q4, increases back to about 72.5 in 2001:Q1 and decreases to about 52.5 in 2001:Q4. Note. FRB seasonals. Includes AT&T, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and companies related by merger, acquisition, or spinoff. Source. SEC filings. Figure: Capital Expenditures by Selected Telecommunications Service Providers: Annual averages Billions of dollars, ratio scale Period Expenditures 2002 43.39 2003 34.95 2004 35.55 2005 39.78 2006 43.80 2007 42.41 As shown in the figure, the annual average for 2000 is about $66 billion, and for 2001 is about $65 billion. 2008 guidance is about $42.5 billion. Note. FRB seasonals. Includes AT&T, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and companies related by merger, acquisition, or spinoff. Source. SEC filings. Guidance from Dell'Oro. Figure: High-Tech Spending Plans Period Diffusion index 2003:Q1 65.0 2003:Q2 63.0 2003:Q3 68.5 2003:Q4 75.5 2004:Q1 72.0 2004:Q2 78.5 2004:Q3 75.5 2004:Q4 77.0 2005:Q1 74.5 2005:Q2 79.0 2005:Q3 73.0 2005:Q4 69.0 2006:Q1 79.0 2006:Q2 74.0 2006:Q3 74.0 2006:Q4 70.5 2007:Q1 66.5 2007:Q2 69.5 2007:Q3 62.0 2007:Q4 69.5 2008:Q1 64.5 2008:Q2 64.0 Note. Based on survey question on firms' plans to increase or decrease their spending on high-tech equipment in the next 12 months. Source. NABE Industry Survey. Indicators of Industrial Activity Figure: Motor Vehicle Assemblies Millions of units Period Autos and light trucks Medium and heavy trucks January 2002 11.66 0.223 February 2002 11.94 0.241 March 2002 11.94 0.253 April 2002 12.21 0.252 May 2002 12.08 0.268 June 2002 12.41 0.278 July 2002 12.79 0.294 August 2002 12.57 0.287 September 2002 12.40 0.292 October 2002 11.98 0.261 November 2002 12.53 0.257 December 2002 11.85 0.241 January 2003 12.55 0.212 February 2003 11.81 0.227 March 2003 11.65 0.234 April 2003 11.48 0.235 May 2003 11.50 0.241 June 2003 11.76 0.253 July 2003 11.77 0.265 August 2003 11.46 0.262 September 2003 12.70 0.287 October 2003 11.89 0.289 November 2003 11.97 0.301 December 2003 12.02 0.310 January 2004 12.02 0.329 February 2004 12.12 0.319 March 2004 11.81 0.306 April 2004 12.01 0.325 May 2004 11.68 0.328 June 2004 11.17 0.345 July 2004 11.23 0.400 August 2004 11.73 0.376 September 2004 11.38 0.394 October 2004 11.51 0.410 November 2004 11.52 0.429 December 2004 11.76 0.415 January 2005 11.48 0.459 February 2005 12.06 0.430 March 2005 11.58 0.416 April 2005 11.02 0.422 May 2005 11.17 0.444 June 2005 11.53 0.429 July 2005 11.33 0.441 August 2005 11.73 0.415 September 2005 12.10 0.405 October 2005 12.07 0.433 November 2005 11.32 0.400 December 2005 10.84 0.407 January 2006 11.37 0.493 February 2006 11.06 0.467 March 2006 11.32 0.483 April 2006 11.12 0.493 May 2006 10.91 0.472 June 2006 11.13 0.412 July 2006 10.16 0.529 August 2006 10.68 0.457 September 2006 10.55 0.454 October 2006 10.23 0.451 November 2006 10.54 0.441 December 2006 10.73 0.424 January 2007 10.00 0.381 February 2007 10.38 0.355 March 2007 10.37 0.319 April 2007 10.76 0.265 May 2007 10.62 0.266 June 2007 10.92 0.273 July 2007 11.08 0.263 August 2007 10.71 0.245 September 2007 10.24 0.251 October 2007 10.18 0.224 November 2007 10.37 0.251 December 2007 10.23 0.258 January 2008 9.97 0.221 February 2008 9.90 0.235 March 2008 9.13 0.260 April 2008 8.17 0.268 May 2008 8.42 0.263 June 2008 9.07 0.216 Note. July 2008 values are based on latest industry schedules: about 9.7 million autos and light trucks, and about 0.26 million medium and heavy trucks. Figure: Utilities Output 2002 = 100 Period January 2002 Electricity Natural gas 96.65 90.58 February 2002 96.88 92.68 March 2002 98.66 97.26 101.59 101.68 April 2002 May 2002 100.01 103.71 June 2002 100.43 101.42 July 2002 101.87 99.61 99.86 97.61 September 2002 August 2002 101.47 97.27 October 2002 101.87 104.53 November 2002 100.73 108.85 December 2002 99.97 104.81 January 2003 103.28 103.11 February 2003 104.59 110.31 March 2003 101.59 101.50 April 2003 101.52 100.25 May 2003 101.31 101.64 June 2003 98.09 98.97 July 2003 101.83 99.55 August 2003 102.88 98.10 September 2003 101.58 98.91 October 2003 101.92 100.10 November 2003 102.54 98.07 December 2003 103.77 100.37 January 2004 105.30 104.95 February 2004 106.19 108.59 March 2004 103.43 93.28 April 2004 104.28 96.69 May 2004 106.01 97.66 June 2004 104.10 95.94 July 2004 102.36 97.19 99.33 97.51 103.66 98.04 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 104.42 97.20 November 2004 104.55 97.85 December 2004 106.45 100.20 January 2005 105.25 99.06 February 2005 104.35 97.23 March 2005 106.41 100.87 April 2005 105.18 98.52 May 2005 103.52 102.72 June 2005 108.15 99.29 July 2005 108.89 97.68 August 2005 108.20 95.60 September 2005 110.11 92.81 October 2005 109.14 90.06 November 2005 107.47 90.76 December 2005 109.71 100.82 January 2006 104.23 80.31 February 2006 106.33 88.96 March 2006 108.34 93.09 April 2006 108.00 88.37 May 2006 108.59 88.83 June 2006 109.33 92.47 July 2006 111.17 92.53 August 2006 109.44 91.80 September 2006 105.32 93.50 October 2006 106.80 104.00 November 2006 108.71 95.80 December 2006 107.03 86.01 January 2007 109.06 93.13 February 2007 113.77 112.07 March 2007 109.16 94.33 April 2007 110.11 101.72 May 2007 110.14 96.21 June 2007 109.03 95.07 July 2007 107.81 95.55 August 2007 111.11 101.04 September 2007 111.53 97.36 October 2007 112.31 90.91 November 2007 111.12 99.43 December 2007 109.72 101.16 January 2008 112.43 103.20 February 2008 112.82 107.97 March 2008 112.42 100.91 April 2008 112.31 103.75 May 2008 109.26 104.55 June 2008 112.46 102.91 Note. The July 2008 value for electricity generation is based on weekly generation data: an index value of about 111. Figure: IP: Consumer Goods and Construction Supplies 2002 = 100 Period Consumer goods Construction supplies January 2002 100.38 98.41 February 2002 99.91 98.93 100.64 100.23 April 2002 99.36 100.01 May 2002 99.77 100.65 June 2002 101.04 101.17 July 2002 99.95 99.62 August 2002 99.88 100.18 100.26 100.74 October 2002 99.79 100.28 November 2002 99.67 100.30 December 2002 99.34 99.48 January 2003 99.37 99.73 February 2003 100.54 99.06 March 2003 101.27 98.84 April 2003 100.33 97.77 May 2003 100.00 99.11 June 2003 100.77 99.62 July 2003 100.38 99.17 August 2003 100.24 99.79 September 2003 100.31 99.44 October 2003 100.14 100.00 November 2003 101.14 101.19 December 2003 100.71 100.94 January 2004 100.59 100.70 February 2004 101.25 100.58 March 2004 100.83 100.64 April 2004 101.73 100.63 May 2004 102.66 101.74 June 2004 101.16 101.05 July 2004 101.71 102.18 August 2004 102.57 102.23 September 2004 102.47 101.29 October 2004 102.94 102.74 November 2004 102.95 102.34 December 2004 103.11 102.16 January 2005 104.56 102.99 February 2005 104.67 103.72 March 2005 104.22 103.41 April 2005 104.05 105.04 May 2005 105.38 105.51 June 2005 105.71 104.58 July 2005 105.57 105.47 August 2005 105.59 105.92 September 2005 105.81 107.57 October 2005 106.21 109.93 November 2005 106.04 110.40 December 2005 106.41 110.07 March 2002 September 2002 January 2006 106.17 110.62 February 2006 105.81 109.91 March 2006 106.15 109.92 April 2006 106.82 109.63 May 2006 106.07 109.02 June 2006 106.02 108.47 July 2006 106.23 109.06 August 2006 106.58 108.34 September 2006 106.82 107.43 October 2006 107.16 106.20 November 2006 106.91 105.17 December 2006 107.79 106.78 January 2007 107.40 105.52 February 2007 107.48 104.51 March 2007 107.49 105.72 April 2007 107.92 105.64 May 2007 107.71 106.04 June 2007 108.08 106.81 July 2007 108.67 106.86 August 2007 107.96 106.50 September 2007 108.75 105.90 October 2007 107.87 104.72 November 2007 107.44 103.80 December 2007 107.57 103.45 January 2008 107.31 102.87 February 2008 106.82 101.53 March 2008 107.62 101.30 April 2008 106.92 100.10 May 2008 107.03 100.55 June 2008 106.78 99.64 Note. Data exclude energy, motor vehicles and parts, and high-tech industries. Figure: Boeing Commercial Aircraft Completions: Actual [redacted] A line chart shows actual completions from 2002 through mid-2008. Unit is an index, 2002 = 100. As shown in the figure, actual completions begin at about 135 in 2002:Q1, generally decrease to about 70 in 2003:Q1, and about 62 in 2005:Q1. Completions then increase to about 84 in 2005:Q3, decrease to about 0 around the Boeing strike in late 2005, then quickly rebound and generally increase to about 130 by mid-2008. Note. 1998 price-weighted index. Actual completions equal deliveries plus the change in the stock of finished aircraft. [redacted]. Figure: New Orders: Regional Survey Average and Change in Real Adjusted Durable Goods Orders Period Regional average (Index) RADGO (Percent) January 2002 52.91 -1.09 February 2002 55.38 -0.21 March 2002 56.95 -1.61 April 2002 57.01 1.04 May 2002 57.79 0.23 June 2002 58.28 -0.16 July 2002 53.87 1.08 August 2002 54.56 -0.43 September 2002 50.92 -0.39 October 2002 49.25 -1.04 November 2002 54.48 -0.43 December 2002 54.20 0.19 January 2003 56.57 -0.36 February 2003 52.65 1.14 March 2003 49.49 1.86 April 2003 45.55 -0.03 May 2003 52.28 -0.40 June 2003 56.07 0.19 July 2003 57.31 0.85 August 2003 59.52 -0.06 September 2003 56.23 0.43 October 2003 59.95 2.54 November 2003 62.94 2.45 December 2003 64.54 0.99 January 2004 64.22 -2.22 February 2004 61.59 -2.04 March 2004 60.69 1.22 April 2004 63.15 1.06 May 2004 64.45 1.01 June 2004 60.84 -1.93 July 2004 64.05 0.28 August 2004 60.11 -0.45 September 2004 61.44 0.76 October 2004 59.84 -0.66 November 2004 59.06 1.21 December 2004 58.83 0.72 January 2005 58.77 2.02 February 2005 59.23 1.09 March 2005 60.36 0.14 April 2005 58.40 -0.15 May 2005 56.43 -0.43 June 2005 55.97 2.21 July 2005 57.95 0.28 August 2005 56.57 1.92 September 2005 58.02 0.14 October 2005 61.43 1.89 November 2005 58.84 0.56 December 2005 57.43 0.37 January 2006 59.55 0.68 February 2006 58.81 0.94 March 2006 62.74 1.53 April 2006 58.95 0.42 May 2006 59.93 -0.06 June 2006 59.70 -0.38 July 2006 56.95 0.23 August 2006 58.06 -0.64 September 2006 55.90 0.10 October 2006 53.34 -0.71 November 2006 51.70 0.67 December 2006 52.23 -0.95 January 2007 50.60 -0.47 February 2007 54.48 -1.59 March 2007 55.27 -0.73 April 2007 54.57 0.91 May 2007 57.87 0.67 June 2007 57.34 0.21 July 2007 54.59 -0.10 August 2007 56.78 0.98 September 2007 55.86 0.37 October 2007 52.53 -0.37 November 2007 52.20 -1.15 December 2007 52.72 1.01 January 2008 48.99 0.05 February 2008 47.98 0.53 March 2008 50.38 -1.00 April 2008 49.78 0.18 May 2008 51.03 -0.33 June 2008 46.97 0.11 July 2008 46.43 ND Note. The measure for real adjusted durable goods orders (RADGO) is a 3-month moving average. Regional average includes new orders indexes from the Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York (Empire State), Philadelphia, and Richmond surveys. Figure: Weekly Production Index excluding Motor Vehicles and Electricity Generation A bar chart shows "Monthly aggregate of weekly index" from January 2006 through August 2008. The "Weekly index" is represented by a line that is superimposed on the bars. Unit is an index. The approximate values for "Monthly aggregate of weekly index" are as follows: 2006 January: 9.63, February: 9.55, March: 9.47, April: 9.5, May: 9.65, June: 9.8: July: 9.77, August: 9.8, September: 9.84, October: 9.62, November: 9.41, December: 9.56 2007 January: 9.57, February: 9.51, March: 9.58, April: 9.49, May: 9.5, June: 9.48: July: 9.55, August: 9.49, September: 9.5, October: 9.45, November: 9.53, December: 9.57 2008 January: 9.65, February: 9.61, March: 9.6, April: 9.54, May: 9.45, June: 9.44: July: 9.65 The "Weekly index" series begins at about 9.57 in January 2006, generally decreases to about 9.35 in March 2006, and generally increases to about 9.94 in July 2006. The series decreases to about 9.57 in late July 2006, generally increases to about 9.91 in September 2006, and generally decreases to about 9.3 in November 2006. It fluctuates between about 9.34 and 9.73 through November 2007, increases to about 9.84 in December 2007, and decreases to about 9.25 in late December 2007. The series increases to about 9.86 in January 2008, generally decreases to about 9.26 in early July 2008, increases to about 9.76, shortly after and decreases to end at about 9.68 in late July 2008. Note. One index point equals 1 percent of 2002 total industrial output. Sales of Light Vehicles (Millions of units at an annual rate; FRB seasonals) 2007 Category 2008 2007 Q4 Total 16.1 Q1 Q2 16.1 15.2 14.1 Apr. 14.4 May 14.3 June 13.6 Autos 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.7 7.5 8.0 7.6 Light trucks 8.5 8.3 7.8 6.4 6.9 6.2 6.0 North American 1 12.3 12.3 11.5 10.3 10.6 10.4 9.9 Autos 5.3 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.3 4.9 Light trucks 7.1 6.9 6.5 5.3 5.7 5.1 5.0 Foreign-produced 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 Autos 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 Light trucks 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 51.3 50.6 50.2 45.6 47.4 44.3 45.1 Memo: Detroit Three domestic market share (percent) 2 Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Excludes some vehicles produced in Canada that are classified as imports by the industry. Return to table 2. Domestic market share excludes sales of foreign brands affiliated with the Detroit Three. Return to table [Content redacted.] [Content redacted.] Figure: Car-Buying Attitudes Period Appraisal of car-buying conditions (Index) Bad time to buy: Gas prices and shortages (Percent) January 2002 156 0 February 2002 156 1 March 2002 149 1 April 2002 148 2 May 2002 151 1 June 2002 149 1 July 2002 155 0 August 2002 152 0 September 2002 158 1 October 2002 156 2 November 2002 153 1 December 2002 155 1 January 2003 152 2 February 2003 140 7 March 2003 141 8 April 2003 149 4 May 2003 160 2 June 2003 157 0 July 2003 160 1 August 2003 150 1 September 2003 152 2 October 2003 155 2 November 2003 161 1 December 2003 157 0 January 2004 161 1 February 2004 150 1 March 2004 153 4 April 2004 147 7 May 2004 144 8 June 2004 144 15 July 2004 142 7 August 2004 144 9 September 2004 148 6 October 2004 152 5 November 2004 138 8 December 2004 154 2 January 2005 147 1 February 2005 144 3 March 2005 130 11 April 2005 128 18 May 2005 133 16 June 2005 139 10 July 2005 152 9 August 2005 147 8 September 2005 125 20 October 2005 119 23 November 2005 125 15 December 2005 135 9 January 2006 137 10 February 2006 134 9 March 2006 138 9 April 2006 132 15 May 2006 112 25 June 2006 124 15 July 2006 130 13 August 2006 124 17 September 2006 128 14 October 2006 137 9 November 2006 140 7 December 2006 140 5 January 2007 136 6 February 2007 133 6 March 2007 138 6 April 2007 132 9 May 2007 124 15 June 2007 118 18 July 2007 125 14 August 2007 133 9 September 2007 139 7 October 2007 128 5 November 2007 117 9 December 2007 117 13 January 2008 119 9 February 2008 119 8 March 2008 114 13 April 2008 110 14 May 2008 96 22 June 2008 91 24 Approximate values for July 2008: "Appraisal of car-buying conditions" is at an index value of about 102, and "Bad time to buy: Gas prices and shortages" is about 23 percent. Source. Reuters/University of Michigan Survey. Figure: Market Share of Light Vehicles by Segment Percent Period Large and midsize cars Pickup/van/SUV Small cars Cross utility January 2006 34.70 37.82 14.03 13.42 February 2006 32.58 39.62 13.29 14.48 March 2006 31.81 40.61 13.86 13.67 April 2006 32.10 37.52 16.06 14.28 May 2006 31.62 37.96 16.88 13.49 June 2006 31.46 38.42 16.32 13.76 July 2006 30.88 37.36 16.91 14.82 August 2006 31.52 37.48 16.58 14.38 September 2006 31.25 39.26 15.30 14.14 October 2006 32.08 39.63 14.05 14.20 November 2006 32.18 38.30 14.40 15.08 December 2006 34.06 36.82 14.31 14.73 January 2007 31.96 37.74 14.65 15.62 February 2007 31.29 37.64 14.25 16.79 March 2007 31.70 36.36 15.13 16.77 April 2007 30.44 36.87 15.27 17.38 May 2007 31.41 33.98 18.07 16.51 June 2007 31.59 33.44 17.50 17.42 July 2007 30.93 35.12 16.55 17.37 August 2007 29.98 36.94 15.50 17.55 September 2007 30.97 36.30 15.44 17.23 October 2007 31.34 35.37 15.74 17.50 November 2007 34.24 32.83 15.39 17.50 December 2007 33.71 33.18 15.14 17.91 January 2008 31.61 33.14 16.23 18.99 February 2008 32.05 33.09 16.02 18.81 March 2008 32.82 31.11 17.33 18.71 April 2008 32.67 29.45 19.32 18.53 May 2008 31.89 25.96 24.35 17.77 June 2008 32.67 26.76 23.02 17.52 Note. Data through May. FRB seasonals. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Percent change from preceding comparable period) 2008 2008 Category 2007 Q1 Q2 Apr. May Annual rate June Monthly rate 1 2.9 1.1 n.a. .2 .3 n.a. Motor vehicles 2.2 -13.4 -19.5 -2.5 -1.5 -1.6 Goods ex. motor vehicles 3.1 -.3 4.7 .6 .5 -.5 3.6 .5 4.4 .7 .7 -.6 Total real PCE Ex. energy Services 2.8 3.1 n.a. .1 .4 n.a. 2.7 Ex. energy 2.8 n.a. .1 .3 n.a. 5.2 4.6 10.2 .9 1.1 1.0 Memo: Nominal retail control 2 1. The values for Q2 and April, May, and June are staff estimates based on available data. Return to table 2. Total sales less outlays at building material and supply stores and automobile and other motor vehicle dealers. Return to table n.a. Not available. Figure: Change in Real PCE Goods: 19902008 Percent Period 6-month moving average July 1990 -0.268 August 1990 -0.065 September 1990 -0.097 October 1990 -0.283 November 1990 -0.134 December 1990 -0.395 July 1991 August 1991 0.508 0.249 September 1991 -0.152 October 1991 -0.070 November 1991 -0.094 December 1991 -0.088 January 1992 0.201 February 1992 0.298 March 1992 0.151 April 1992 0.326 May 1992 0.438 June 1992 0.426 July 1992 0.053 August 1992 0.148 September 1992 0.390 October 1992 0.534 November 1992 0.318 December 1992 0.534 January 1993 0.538 February 1993 0.277 March 1993 0.128 April 1993 0.219 May 1993 0.464 June 1993 0.194 July 1993 0.308 August 1993 0.384 September 1993 0.623 October 1993 0.382 November 1993 0.290 December 1993 0.387 January 1994 0.220 February 1994 0.560 March 1994 0.441 April 1994 0.538 May 1994 0.275 June 1994 0.383 July 1994 0.422 August 1994 0.296 September 1994 0.254 October 1994 0.350 November 1994 0.539 December 1994 0.427 January 1995 0.390 February 1995 0.027 March 1995 0.196 April 1995 -0.124 May 1995 0.047 June 1995 0.190 July 1995 0.118 August 1995 0.422 September 1995 0.377 October 1995 0.308 November 1995 0.323 December 1995 0.333 January 1996 0.182 February 1996 0.302 March 1996 0.288 April 1996 0.608 May 1996 0.434 June 1996 0.228 July 1996 0.520 August 1996 0.406 September 1996 0.294 October 1996 0.276 November 1996 0.309 December 1996 0.330 January 1997 0.395 February 1997 0.354 March 1997 0.479 April 1997 0.216 May 1997 0.102 June 1997 0.286 July 1997 0.381 August 1997 0.492 September 1997 0.277 October 1997 0.449 November 1997 0.704 December 1997 0.544 January 1998 0.335 February 1998 0.256 March 1998 0.443 April 1998 0.548 May 1998 0.530 June 1998 0.557 July 1998 0.537 August 1998 0.614 September 1998 0.635 October 1998 0.703 November 1998 0.620 December 1998 0.739 January 1999 0.579 February 1999 0.626 March 1999 0.582 April 1999 0.483 May 1999 0.565 June 1999 0.412 July 1999 0.570 August 1999 0.484 September 1999 0.452 October 1999 0.367 November 1999 0.281 December 1999 0.661 January 2000 0.516 February 2000 0.586 March 2000 0.663 April 2000 0.530 May 2000 0.470 June 2000 -0.011 July 2000 0.225 August 2000 0.112 September 2000 0.177 October 2000 0.257 November 2000 0.172 December 2000 0.338 January 2001 0.298 February 2001 0.338 March 2001 0.008 April 2001 0.006 May 2001 0.171 June 2001 0.103 July 2001 0.142 August 2001 September 2001 0.180 -0.011 October 2001 0.957 November 2001 0.607 December 2001 0.483 January 2002 0.551 February 2002 0.519 March 2002 0.763 April 2002 0.034 May 2002 0.015 June 2002 0.324 July 2002 0.345 August 2002 0.263 September 2002 October 2002 0.108 -0.066 November 2002 0.299 December 2002 0.334 January 2003 0.144 February 2003 -0.046 March 2003 0.367 April 2003 0.428 May 2003 0.375 June 2003 0.336 July 2003 0.492 August 2003 0.946 September 2003 0.585 October 2003 0.474 November 2003 0.633 December 2003 0.322 January 2004 0.368 February 2004 0.007 March 2004 0.424 April 2004 0.327 May 2004 0.327 June 2004 0.168 July 2004 0.237 August 2004 0.262 September 2004 0.267 October 2004 0.405 November 2004 0.201 December 2004 0.620 January 2005 0.351 February 2005 0.495 March 2005 0.214 April 2005 0.489 May 2005 0.240 June 2005 0.384 July 2005 0.653 August 2005 0.316 September 2005 October 2005 0.205 -0.015 November 2005 0.299 December 2005 0.081 January 2006 0.123 February 2006 0.290 March 2006 0.452 April 2006 0.499 May 2006 0.373 June 2006 0.313 July 2006 0.251 August 2006 0.210 September 2006 0.253 October 2006 0.197 November 2006 0.309 December 2006 0.485 January 2007 0.321 February 2007 0.393 March 2007 0.369 April 2007 0.252 May 2007 0.308 June 2007 0.026 July 2007 0.035 August 2007 0.123 September 2007 0.211 October 2007 0.268 November 2007 0.128 December 2007 0.135 January 2008 0.056 February 2008 -0.022 March 2008 -0.073 April 2008 -0.028 May 2008 0.037 June 2008 0.023 Note. The values for April, May, and June are staff estimates based on available data. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). Figure: Change in Real PCE Goods: 2006-2008 Percent Period 1-month 6-month January 2006 1.625 0.123 February 2006 -0.317 0.290 March 2006 0.044 0.452 April 2006 0.715 0.499 May 2006 -0.304 0.373 June 2006 0.115 0.313 July 2006 1.256 0.251 -0.564 0.210 September 2006 0.298 0.253 October 2006 0.381 0.197 November 2006 0.368 0.309 August 2006 December 2006 1.172 0.485 January 2007 0.268 0.321 February 2007 -0.130 0.393 0.157 0.369 April 2007 -0.322 0.252 May 2007 0.705 0.308 June 2007 -0.520 0.026 July 2007 0.321 0.035 August 2007 0.397 0.123 September 2007 0.683 0.211 October 2007 0.024 0.268 November 2007 -0.136 0.128 December 2007 -0.480 0.135 January 2008 -0.154 0.056 February 2008 March 2007 -0.068 -0.022 March 2008 0.375 -0.073 April 2008 0.295 -0.028 May 2008 0.254 0.037 June 2008 -0.564 0.023 Note. The values for April, May, and June are staff estimates based on available data. Figure: Change in Real PCE Services: 19902008 Percent Period 6-month moving average July 1990 0.371 August 1990 0.373 September 1990 0.294 October 1990 0.214 November 1990 0.087 December 1990 0.080 July 1991 0.265 August 1991 0.235 September 1991 0.203 October 1991 0.109 November 1991 0.186 December 1991 0.204 January 1992 0.257 February 1992 0.245 March 1992 0.382 April 1992 0.383 May 1992 0.308 June 1992 0.363 July 1992 0.332 August 1992 0.318 September 1992 0.282 October 1992 0.249 November 1992 0.318 December 1992 0.278 January 1993 0.144 February 1993 0.318 March 1993 0.164 April 1993 0.194 May 1993 0.063 June 1993 0.185 July 1993 0.282 August 1993 0.200 September 1993 0.270 October 1993 0.309 November 1993 0.357 December 1993 0.273 January 1994 0.337 February 1994 0.288 March 1994 0.209 April 1994 0.198 May 1994 0.258 June 1994 0.251 July 1994 0.124 August 1994 0.172 September 1994 0.239 October 1994 0.228 November 1994 0.158 December 1994 0.134 January 1995 0.172 February 1995 0.197 March 1995 0.186 April 1995 0.197 May 1995 0.264 June 1995 0.319 July 1995 0.298 August 1995 0.279 September 1995 0.230 October 1995 0.220 November 1995 0.235 December 1995 0.192 January 1996 0.247 February 1996 0.233 March 1996 0.319 April 1996 0.308 May 1996 0.237 June 1996 0.240 July 1996 0.230 August 1996 0.198 September 1996 0.175 October 1996 0.169 November 1996 0.192 December 1996 0.241 January 1997 0.242 February 1997 0.285 March 1997 0.231 April 1997 0.318 May 1997 0.340 June 1997 0.237 July 1997 0.345 August 1997 0.287 September 1997 0.353 October 1997 0.373 November 1997 0.295 December 1997 0.407 January 1998 0.276 February 1998 0.397 March 1998 0.415 April 1998 0.297 May 1998 0.408 June 1998 0.425 July 1998 0.443 August 1998 0.342 September 1998 0.330 October 1998 0.300 November 1998 0.240 December 1998 0.175 January 1999 0.251 February 1999 0.219 March 1999 0.271 April 1999 0.383 May 1999 0.383 June 1999 0.383 July 1999 0.382 August 1999 0.421 September 1999 0.348 October 1999 0.311 November 1999 0.346 December 1999 0.359 January 2000 0.317 February 2000 0.396 March 2000 0.450 April 2000 0.408 May 2000 0.399 June 2000 0.403 July 2000 0.392 August 2000 0.320 September 2000 0.291 October 2000 0.336 November 2000 0.321 December 2000 0.340 January 2001 0.248 February 2001 0.184 March 2001 0.181 April 2001 0.163 May 2001 0.154 June 2001 0.050 July 2001 0.136 August 2001 0.165 September 2001 0.072 October 2001 0.142 November 2001 0.105 December 2001 0.190 January 2002 0.132 February 2002 0.162 March 2002 0.221 April 2002 0.171 May 2002 0.219 June 2002 0.157 July 2002 0.226 August 2002 0.136 September 2002 0.123 October 2002 0.150 November 2002 0.109 December 2002 0.128 January 2003 0.116 February 2003 0.161 March 2003 0.140 April 2003 0.103 May 2003 0.160 June 2003 0.145 July 2003 0.157 August 2003 0.202 September 2003 0.211 October 2003 0.218 November 2003 0.216 December 2003 0.268 January 2004 0.318 February 2004 0.281 March 2004 0.257 April 2004 0.320 May 2004 0.320 June 2004 0.238 July 2004 0.195 August 2004 0.228 September 2004 0.304 October 2004 0.242 November 2004 0.225 December 2004 0.302 January 2005 0.245 February 2005 0.202 March 2005 0.198 April 2005 0.118 May 2005 0.158 June 2005 0.184 July 2005 0.222 August 2005 0.269 September 2005 0.278 October 2005 0.314 November 2005 0.280 December 2005 0.265 January 2006 0.137 February 2006 0.241 March 2006 0.204 April 2006 0.204 May 2006 0.223 June 2006 0.177 July 2006 0.295 August 2006 0.138 September 2006 0.154 October 2006 0.272 November 2006 0.224 December 2006 0.206 January 2007 0.251 February 2007 0.345 March 2007 0.242 April 2007 0.254 May 2007 0.170 June 2007 0.242 July 2007 0.201 August 2007 0.186 September 2007 0.247 October 2007 0.136 November 2007 0.303 December 2007 0.263 January 2008 0.297 February 2008 0.200 March 2008 0.239 April 2008 0.241 May 2008 0.200 Note. Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). Figure: Change in Real PCE Services: 2006-2008 Percent Period 1-month 6-month January 2006 -0.504 0.137 February 2006 0.936 0.241 March 2006 0.057 0.204 April 2006 -0.009 0.204 May 2006 0.433 0.223 June 2006 0.150 0.177 July 2006 0.202 0.295 August 2006 -0.005 0.138 September 2006 0.154 0.154 October 2006 0.698 0.272 November 2006 0.147 0.224 December 2006 0.042 0.206 January 2007 0.470 0.251 February 2007 0.558 0.345 -0.460 0.242 April 2007 0.765 0.254 May 2007 -0.356 0.170 June 2007 0.475 0.242 July 2007 0.224 0.201 August 2007 0.469 0.186 -0.094 0.247 October 2007 0.100 0.136 November 2007 0.643 0.303 December 2007 0.238 0.263 January 2008 0.428 0.297 February 2008 March 2007 September 2007 -0.111 0.200 March 2008 0.136 0.239 April 2008 0.114 0.241 May 2008 0.397 0.200 Fundamentals of Household Spending Figure: Change in Real DPI A line chart shows a single series, from 1997 through May 2008. Unit is 12-month percent change. The series begins at about 3.5 percent in 1997, generally increases to about 6.5 in 1998, fluctuates widely between about 0.5 and 6 and decreases to about -1 in 2005. It then generally increases to about 5 in 2006, generally decreases to about 1 in early 2008, and increases to end at about 7.2 in May 2008. Note. Values for December 2004 and December 2005 exclude the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004. Figure: Personal Saving Rate A line chart shows a single series, from 1997 through May 2008. Unit is percent. The series begins at about 3.5 percent in 1997, generally increases to about 4.7 in 1998:Q1, it generally decreases to about 1.3 in 1999:Q3, and fluctuates between about -0.2 and 4.3 through 2004. It then decreases to about -2.2 in 2005:Q3, increases to about 1 in 2006:Q1, fluctuates between about -0.1 and 1.7 through 2008:Q1 and increases to end at about 5 in May 2008. Note. The value for December 2004 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in that month. Figure: Household Net Worth and Wilshire 5000: Ratio of household net worth to DPI* Period Ratio 1998:Q1 5.735 1998:Q2 5.742 1998:Q3 5.441 1998:Q4 5.736 1999:Q1 5.794 1999:Q2 5.940 1999:Q3 5.793 1999:Q4 6.187 2000:Q1 6.132 2000:Q2 5.995 2000:Q3 5.910 2000:Q4 5.708 2001:Q1 5.428 2001:Q2 5.562 2001:Q3 5.148 2001:Q4 5.411 2002:Q1 5.301 2002:Q2 5.057 2002:Q3 4.842 2002:Q4 4.965 2003:Q1 4.918 2003:Q2 5.086 2003:Q3 5.087 2003:Q4 5.304 2004:Q1 5.299 2004:Q2 5.307 2004:Q3 5.281 2004:Q4 5.449 2005:Q1 5.429 2005:Q2 5.459 2005:Q3 5.553 2005:Q4 5.560 2006:Q1 5.624 2006:Q2 5.574 2006:Q3 5.615 2006:Q4 5.686 2007:Q1 5.640 2007:Q2 5.702 2007:Q3 5.687 2007:Q4 5.548 2008:Q1 5.317 * Note. The value for 2004:Q4 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004. Return to table Figure: Household Net Worth and Wilshire 5000: Wilshire 5000 Period January 1998 Index 9340.80 February 1998 10006.44 March 1998 10494.72 April 1998 10609.61 May 1998 10341.47 June 1998 10663.62 July 1998 10420.26 August 1998 8785.71 September 1998 9346.81 October 1998 10032.19 November 1998 10650.20 December 1998 11317.59 January 1999 11724.83 February 1999 11286.08 March 1999 11707.67 April 1999 12259.36 May 1999 11976.75 June 1999 12583.60 July 1999 12189.84 August 1999 12042.23 September 1999 11713.80 October 1999 12449.40 November 1999 12851.93 December 1999 13812.67 January 2000 13230.62 February 2000 13511.00 March 2000 14296.18 April 2000 13541.70 May 2000 13052.96 June 2000 13618.50 July 2000 13330.31 August 2000 14280.04 September 2000 13613.01 October 2000 13314.68 November 2000 11976.24 December 2000 12175.88 January 2001 12631.36 February 2001 11425.29 March 2001 10645.85 April 2001 11512.46 May 2001 11610.22 June 2001 11407.15 July 2001 11208.51 August 2001 10515.09 September 2001 October 2001 9562.93 9796.86 November 2001 10531.45 December 2001 10707.68 January 2002 10564.72 February 2002 10332.89 March 2002 10775.74 April 2002 10241.18 May 2002 10106.49 June 2002 9384.03 July 2002 8616.94 August 2002 8654.04 September 2002 7773.63 October 2002 8357.32 November 2002 8846.71 December 2002 8343.19 January 2003 8125.07 February 2003 7972.60 March 2003 8051.86 April 2003 8701.97 May 2003 9218.89 June 2003 9342.95 July 2003 9555.19 August 2003 9770.56 September 2003 9649.68 October 2003 10224.52 November 2003 10352.22 December 2003 10799.63 January 2004 11029.20 February 2004 11172.89 March 2004 11039.42 April 2004 10793.66 May 2004 10926.36 June 2004 11138.91 July 2004 10701.65 August 2004 10719.15 September 2004 10895.48 October 2004 11068.95 November 2004 11568.54 December 2004 11971.14 January 2005 11642.57 February 2005 11863.48 March 2005 11638.27 April 2005 11363.52 May 2005 11787.81 June 2005 11876.74 July 2005 12360.81 August 2005 12217.13 September 2005 12289.26 October 2005 12063.24 November 2005 12521.92 December 2005 12517.69 January 2006 12953.63 February 2006 12922.27 March 2006 13155.44 April 2006 13280.93 May 2006 12841.69 June 2006 12849.29 July 2006 12789.67 August 2006 13062.54 September 2006 13345.97 October 2006 13829.07 November 2006 14116.71 December 2006 14257.55 January 2007 14531.92 February 2007 14271.61 March 2007 14409.27 April 2007 14952.35 May 2007 15462.16 June 2007 15210.65 July 2007 14682.66 August 2007 14847.70 September 2007 15362.02 October 2007 15673.36 November 2007 14932.67 December 2007 14819.58 January 2008 13896.65 February 2008 13455.96 March 2008 13332.01 April 2008 13991.12 May 2008 14260.76 June 2008 13073.54 July 2008 12900.30 Figure: Target Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield Percent Period Federal funds rate Treasury yield January 1998 5.50 5.53 February 1998 5.50 5.62 March 1998 5.50 5.67 April 1998 5.50 5.68 May 1998 5.50 5.56 June 1998 5.50 5.44 July 1998 5.50 5.50 August 1998 5.50 5.05 September 1998 5.25 4.44 October 1998 5.00 4.64 November 1998 4.75 4.74 December 1998 4.75 4.65 January 1999 4.75 4.66 February 1999 4.75 5.29 March 1999 4.75 5.25 April 1999 4.75 5.36 May 1999 4.75 5.64 June 1999 5.00 5.81 July 1999 5.00 5.92 August 1999 5.25 5.98 September 1999 5.25 5.90 October 1999 5.25 6.02 November 1999 5.50 6.18 December 1999 5.50 6.45 January 2000 5.50 6.68 February 2000 5.75 6.42 March 2000 6.00 6.03 April 2000 6.00 6.23 May 2000 6.50 6.29 June 2000 6.50 6.03 July 2000 6.50 6.04 August 2000 6.50 5.73 September 2000 6.50 5.80 October 2000 6.50 5.77 November 2000 6.50 5.48 December 2000 6.50 5.12 January 2001 5.50 5.19 February 2001 5.50 4.92 March 2001 5.00 4.93 April 2001 4.50 5.35 May 2001 4.00 5.43 June 2001 3.75 5.42 July 2001 3.75 5.07 August 2001 3.50 4.85 September 2001 3.00 4.60 October 2001 2.50 4.30 November 2001 2.00 4.78 December 2001 1.75 5.07 January 2002 1.75 5.07 February 2002 1.75 4.88 March 2002 1.75 5.42 April 2002 1.75 5.11 May 2002 1.75 5.08 June 2002 1.75 4.86 July 2002 1.75 4.51 August 2002 1.75 4.14 September 2002 1.75 3.63 October 2002 1.75 3.93 November 2002 1.25 4.22 December 2002 1.25 3.83 January 2003 1.25 4.00 February 2003 1.25 3.71 March 2003 1.25 3.83 April 2003 1.25 3.89 May 2003 1.25 3.37 June 2003 1.00 3.54 July 2003 1.00 4.49 August 2003 1.00 4.45 September 2003 1.00 3.96 October 2003 1.00 4.33 November 2003 1.00 4.34 December 2003 1.00 4.27 January 2004 1.00 4.16 February 2004 1.00 3.99 March 2004 1.00 3.86 April 2004 1.00 4.53 May 2004 1.00 4.66 June 2004 1.25 4.62 July 2004 1.25 4.50 August 2004 1.50 4.13 September 2004 1.75 4.14 October 2004 1.75 4.05 November 2004 2.00 4.36 December 2004 2.25 4.24 January 2005 2.25 4.14 February 2005 2.50 4.36 March 2005 2.75 4.50 April 2005 2.75 4.21 May 2005 3.00 4.00 June 2005 3.25 3.94 July 2005 3.25 4.28 August 2005 3.50 4.02 September 2005 3.75 4.34 October 2005 3.75 4.57 November 2005 4.00 4.49 December 2005 4.25 4.39 January 2006 4.50 4.53 February 2006 4.50 4.55 March 2006 4.75 4.86 April 2006 4.75 5.07 May 2006 5.00 5.12 June 2006 5.25 5.15 July 2006 5.25 4.99 August 2006 5.25 4.74 September 2006 5.25 4.64 October 2006 5.25 4.61 November 2006 5.25 4.46 December 2006 5.25 4.71 January 2007 5.25 4.83 February 2007 5.25 4.56 March 2007 5.25 4.65 April 2007 5.25 4.63 May 2007 5.25 4.90 June 2007 5.25 5.03 July 2007 5.25 4.78 August 2007 5.25 4.54 September 2007 4.75 4.59 October 2007 4.50 4.48 November 2007 4.50 3.97 December 2007 4.25 4.04 January 2008 3.00 3.67 February 2008 3.00 3.53 March 2008 2.25 3.45 April 2008 2.00 3.77 May 2008 2.00 4.06 June 2008 2.00 3.99 29 July 2008 2.00 4.09 Figure: Consumer Confidence Period Reuters/Michigan (1966 = 100) Conference Board (1985 = 100) January 1990 93.0 106.5 February 1990 89.5 106.7 March 1990 91.3 110.6 April 1990 93.9 107.3 May 1990 90.6 107.3 June 1990 88.3 102.4 July 1990 88.2 101.7 August 1990 76.4 84.7 September 1990 72.8 85.6 October 1990 63.9 62.6 November 1990 66.0 61.7 December 1990 65.5 61.2 January 1991 66.8 55.1 February 1991 70.4 59.4 March 1991 87.7 81.1 April 1991 81.8 79.4 May 1991 78.3 76.4 June 1991 82.1 78.0 July 1991 82.9 77.7 August 1991 82.0 76.1 September 1991 83.0 72.9 October 1991 78.3 60.1 November 1991 69.1 52.7 December 1991 68.2 52.5 January 1992 67.5 50.2 February 1992 68.8 47.3 March 1992 76.0 56.5 April 1992 77.2 65.1 May 1992 79.2 71.9 June 1992 80.4 72.6 July 1992 76.6 61.2 August 1992 76.1 59.0 September 1992 75.6 57.3 October 1992 73.3 54.6 November 1992 85.3 65.6 December 1992 91.0 78.1 January 1993 89.3 76.7 February 1993 86.6 68.5 March 1993 85.9 63.2 April 1993 85.6 67.6 May 1993 80.3 61.9 June 1993 81.5 58.6 July 1993 77.0 59.2 August 1993 77.3 59.3 September 1993 77.9 63.8 October 1993 82.7 60.5 November 1993 81.2 71.9 December 1993 88.2 79.8 January 1994 94.3 82.6 February 1994 93.2 79.9 March 1994 91.5 86.7 April 1994 92.6 92.1 May 1994 92.8 88.9 June 1994 91.2 92.5 July 1994 89.0 91.3 August 1994 91.7 90.4 September 1994 91.5 89.5 October 1994 92.7 89.1 November 1994 91.6 100.4 December 1994 95.1 103.4 January 1995 97.6 101.4 February 1995 95.1 99.4 March 1995 90.3 100.2 April 1995 92.5 104.6 May 1995 89.8 102.0 June 1995 92.7 94.6 July 1995 94.4 101.4 August 1995 96.2 102.4 September 1995 88.9 97.3 October 1995 90.2 96.3 November 1995 88.2 101.6 December 1995 91.0 99.2 January 1996 89.3 88.4 February 1996 88.5 98.0 March 1996 93.7 98.4 April 1996 92.7 104.8 May 1996 89.4 103.5 June 1996 92.4 100.1 July 1996 94.7 107.0 August 1996 95.3 112.0 September 1996 94.7 111.8 October 1996 96.5 107.3 November 1996 99.2 109.5 December 1996 96.9 114.2 January 1997 97.4 118.7 99.7 118.9 100.0 118.5 February 1997 March 1997 April 1997 101.4 118.5 May 1997 103.2 127.9 June 1997 104.5 129.9 July 1997 107.1 126.3 August 1997 104.4 127.6 September 1997 106.0 130.2 October 1997 105.6 123.4 November 1997 107.2 128.1 December 1997 102.1 136.2 January 1998 106.6 128.3 February 1998 110.4 137.4 March 1998 106.5 133.8 April 1998 108.7 137.2 May 1998 106.5 136.3 June 1998 105.6 138.2 July 1998 105.2 137.2 August 1998 104.4 133.1 September 1998 100.9 126.4 97.4 119.3 November 1998 102.7 126.4 December 1998 100.5 126.7 January 1999 103.9 128.9 February 1999 108.1 133.1 March 1999 105.7 134.0 April 1999 104.6 135.5 May 1999 106.8 137.7 June 1999 107.3 139.0 July 1999 106.0 136.2 August 1999 104.5 136.0 September 1999 107.2 134.2 October 1999 103.2 130.5 November 1999 107.2 137.0 December 1999 105.4 141.7 January 2000 112.0 144.7 February 2000 111.3 140.8 March 2000 107.1 137.1 April 2000 109.2 137.7 May 2000 110.7 144.7 June 2000 106.4 139.2 July 2000 108.3 143.0 August 2000 107.3 140.8 September 2000 106.8 142.5 October 2000 105.8 135.8 November 2000 107.6 132.6 December 2000 98.4 128.6 January 2001 94.7 115.7 February 2001 90.6 109.2 March 2001 91.5 116.9 April 2001 88.4 109.9 October 1998 May 2001 92.0 116.1 June 2001 92.6 118.9 July 2001 92.4 116.3 August 2001 91.5 114.0 September 2001 81.8 97.0 October 2001 82.7 85.3 November 2001 83.9 84.9 December 2001 88.8 94.6 January 2002 93.0 97.8 February 2002 90.7 95.0 March 2002 95.7 110.7 April 2002 93.0 108.5 May 2002 96.9 110.3 June 2002 92.4 106.3 July 2002 88.1 97.4 August 2002 87.6 94.5 September 2002 86.1 93.7 October 2002 80.6 79.6 November 2002 84.2 84.9 December 2002 86.7 80.7 January 2003 82.4 78.8 February 2003 79.9 64.8 March 2003 77.6 61.4 April 2003 86.0 81.0 May 2003 92.1 83.6 June 2003 89.7 83.5 July 2003 90.9 77.0 August 2003 89.3 81.7 September 2003 87.7 77.0 October 2003 89.6 81.7 November 2003 93.7 92.5 December 2003 92.6 94.8 103.8 97.7 February 2004 94.4 88.5 March 2004 95.8 88.5 April 2004 94.2 93.0 May 2004 90.2 93.1 June 2004 95.6 102.8 July 2004 96.7 105.7 August 2004 95.9 98.7 September 2004 94.2 96.7 October 2004 91.7 92.9 November 2004 92.8 92.6 December 2004 97.1 102.7 January 2005 95.5 105.1 February 2005 94.1 104.4 March 2005 92.6 103.0 April 2005 87.7 97.5 May 2005 86.9 103.1 January 2004 June 2005 96.0 106.2 July 2005 96.5 103.6 August 2005 89.1 105.5 September 2005 76.9 87.5 October 2005 74.2 85.2 November 2005 81.6 98.3 December 2005 91.5 103.8 January 2006 91.2 106.8 February 2006 86.7 102.7 March 2006 88.9 107.5 April 2006 87.4 109.8 May 2006 79.1 104.7 June 2006 84.9 105.4 July 2006 84.7 107.0 August 2006 82.0 100.2 September 2006 85.4 105.9 October 2006 93.6 105.1 November 2006 92.1 105.3 December 2006 91.7 110.0 January 2007 96.9 110.2 February 2007 91.3 111.2 March 2007 88.4 108.2 April 2007 87.1 106.3 May 2007 88.3 108.5 June 2007 85.3 105.3 July 2007 90.4 111.9 August 2007 83.4 105.6 September 2007 83.4 99.5 October 2007 80.9 95.2 November 2007 76.1 87.8 December 2007 75.5 90.6 January 2008 78.4 87.3 February 2008 70.8 76.4 March 2008 69.5 65.9 April 2008 62.6 62.8 May 2008 59.8 58.1 June 2008 56.4 51.0 July 2008 61.2 51.9 Note. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). Private Housing Activity (Millions of units, seasonally adjusted; annual rate except as noted) 2008 Sector 2007 Q1 Q2 Apr. May June All units Starts 1.36 1.05 1.02 1.00 .98 1.07 Permits 1.40 .99 1.03 .98 .98 1.14 Single-family units Starts 1.05 .73 .67 .68 .68 .65 .98 .65 .63 .65 .64 .62 .99 .67 .65 .66 .65 .63 .109 .097 .087 .095 .093 .087 .78 .56 .54 .54 .53 .53 8.40 10.24 9.97 10.14 10.13 9.65 Sales 4.94 4.34 4.27 Months' supply3 8.67 10.23 10.30 10.51 10.02 10.37 Permits Adjusted permits 1 Permit backlog 2 New homes Sales Months' supply 3 Existing homes 4.39 4.34 4.41 Multifamily units Starts .309 .325 .346 .323 .294 .419 Permits .419 .341 .400 .333 .343 .522 Permit backlog 2 .075 .067 .066 .065 .064 .066 .096 .092 n.a. .092 .087 n.a. .713 .560 .573 .550 .580 .590 Mobile homes Shipments Condos and co-ops Existing home sales 1. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas. Return to table 2. Number outstanding at end of period. Excludes permits that have expired or have been canceled, abandoned, or revoked. Not at an annual rate. Return to table 3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of monthly figures. Return to table n.a. Not available. Figure: Private Housing Starts and Permits A line chart shows three series, "Single-family starts (right scale)", "Single-family adjusted permits (right scale)", and "Multifamily starts (left scale)", from 1999 through June 2008. The right scale ranges from 0.0 to 2.0 and the left scale ranges from 0.1 to 1.0. Unit is millions of units (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The "Single-family starts" and "Single-family adjusted permits" series track fairly closely throughout the period. The "Single-family starts" and "Single-family adjusted permits" series begin at about 1.3 million units in 1999, they generally increases to about 1.85 by late 2005 and early 2006, and generally decrease to end at about 0.64 in June 2008. The "Multifamily starts" series begins at about 0.4 million units in 1999, fluctuates between about 0.2 and 0.5 throughout the period, and ends at about 0.42 in June 2008. Note. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas. Indicators of Single-Family Housing Figure: Existing Single-Family Home Sales A line chart shows two series, "Existing home sales (left scale)", and "Pending home sales (right scale)" from 1999 through June 2008. The left scale ranges from 4.0 to 6.5; unit is millions of units (annual rate). The right scale ranges from 70 to 140; unit is an index (2001=100). The "Existing home sales" series begins at about 4.7 million units in January 1999, generally increases to about 6.3 in 2005:Q3, and then generally decreases to end at about 4.25 in June 2008. The "Pending home sales" series begins at about 102 in 2001:Q1, increases to about 108 shortly after, generally decreases to about 90 in 2001:Q3 and generally increases to about 127 in 2005:Q2 and Q3. It then generally decreases to about 84 in early 2008 and increases to about 90 in 2008:Q2, and decreases to end at about 84 in May 2008. Source. National Association of Realtors. Figure: New Single-Family Home Sales A line chart shows one series, "Sales agreements (left scale)", from 1999 through June 2008. The left scale ranges from 0.3 to 1.5. Unit is millions of units (annual rate). The "Sales agreements" series begins at about 0.87 million units in 1999, generally increases to about 1.5 in 2005:Q3, and generally decreases to end at about 0.54 in June 2008. Note: [redacted]. Source. [redacted] for sales agreements, Census Bureau. Figure: Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply A line chart shows two series, "Inventories of new homes (left scale)", and "Months' supply (right scale)" from 1999 through June 2008. The left scale ranges from 200 to 600; unit is thousands of units. The right scale ranges from 1 to 11; unit is months. The "Inventories of new homes" series begins at about 275 thousand units in 1999, generally increases to about 570 by mid-2006 and then generally decreases to end at about 425 in June 2008. The "Month's supply" series begins at about 3.5 in 1999, fluctuates between about 3.5 and 4.5 through 2005:Q3, it generally increases to about 10.2 in 2008:Q2, and decreases to end at about 9.5 in June 2008. Note. Months supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales. Source. Census Bureau. Figure: Mortgage Rates A line chart shows two series, "30-year conforming FRM", and "1-year conforming ARM" from 1999 through July 2008. Unit is percent. The "30-year conforming FRM" series begins at about 6.7 percent in 1999, generally increases to about 8.5 in 2000:Q2, it generally decreases to about 5.2 in 2003:Q2, then fluctuates between about 5.3 and 6.7 through 2007, and ends at about 6.4 in July 2008. The "1-year conforming ARM" series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1999, generally increases to about 7.3 in 2000:Q2, and generally decreases to about 3.4 in 2004:Q1. It then generally increases to about 5.8 in 2006:Q3 and generally decreases to end at about 5.3 in July 2008. Note. The July reading is a monthly average of data available through July 23, 2008. Figure: Prices of Existing Homes A line chart shows three series, "Quarterly OFHEO purchase-only index", "Monthly OFHEO purchase-only index", and "Case-Shiller 10-city price index" from 1999 through March 2008. Unit is percent change, annual rate. The "Quarterly OFHEO purchase-only index" and "Case-Shiller 10-city price index" series track fairly closely throughout the period. The "Quarterly OFHEO purchase-only index" and "Case-Shiller 10-city price index" series begin at about 6 percent in 1999, and generally increase to about 10 by mid-2005. The series then generally decrease to end at about -7 for "Quarterly OFHEO purchase-only index" in early 2008, and -7 for "Case-Shiller 10-city price index" in May: 2008 respectively. The "Monthly OFHEO purchase-only index" series begins at about 6 in 1999, fluctuates between about 5 and 20 through 2004: Q1, and increases to about 25 by mid-2004. It then generally decreases to about -25 in 2008:Q1 and increases to end at about -20 in March 2008. Note. The Case-Shiller and monthly OFHEO indexes are 3-month percent changes. Source. For purchase-only indexes, OFHEO; for Case-Shiller, Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Figure: Price of New Homes A line chart shows a single series, "Constant-quality index", from 1999 through 2008. Unit is percent change from year earlier. The "Constant quality index" series begins at about 3.1 percent in 1999, increases to about 6.5 in 2008:Q2, and generally increases to about 9.1 in 2005:Q4. It then generally decreases to about -8 in 2008:Q1, and increases to end at about -4 in 2008:Q2. Source. Census Bureau. Orders and Shipments of Nondefense Capital Goods (Percent change; seasonally adjusted current dollars) 2008 Category Q1 Q2 Annual rate Shipments Excluding aircraft Apr. May June Monthly rate -.1 3.0 1.8 -.3 .5 -.4 5.9 1.0 .2 .7 Computers and peripherals -5.8 -17.7 -4.5 2.8 -1.1 Communications equipment 2.6 4.1 -3.9 4.9 4.5 All other categories -.1 8.9 2.1 -.5 .5 -5.6 -7.5 -2.4 .2 -3.2 4.7 10.4 3.1 -.1 1.4 -1.7 -7.2 -10.5 9.3 -1.1 Orders Excluding aircraft Computers and peripherals Communications equipment All other categories .6 -3.8 .3 1.5 -6.8 5.7 13.7 4.8 -1.1 2.4 44.3 n.a. 40.2 44.2 n.a. Memo: Shipments of complete aircraft1 1. From Census Bureau, Current Industrial Reports; billions of dollars, annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. Figure: Communications Equipment A line chart shows two series, "Shipments", and "Orders", from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars, ratio scale. The Shipments series begins at about 9 in 2000, increases to about 10.50 by 2001, generally decreases to about 4.75 by late 2002, and fluctuates between 4.75 and about 6.5 through 2007. It then ends at about 6.5 in June 2008. The Orders series begins at about 10 in 2000, increases to about 14 by mid-2000, decreases to about 2.5 by 2002 and then increases back to about 6.5 by late 2003. It then fluctuates between about 4.5 and 7.5 through 2007 and ends at about 5.75 in June 2008. Note. Shipments and orders are deflated by a price index that is derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes and uses the PPI for communications equipment for monthly interpolation. Figure: Non-High-Tech, Nontransportation Equipment A line chart shows two series, "Shipments", and "Orders" from 2000:Q1 through June 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars, ratio scale. The two series track fairly closely throughout the period. The Shipments series begins at about 44 in 2000, decreases to about 38 by 2002, generally increases to about 45 by 2006 and ends at about 44.5 in June 2008. The Orders series begins at about 46 in 2000, decreases to about 36 by 2002, generally increases to about 48 by late 2006 and ends at about 46.5 in June 2008. Note. Shipments and orders are deflated by the staff price indexes for the individual equipment types included in this category. Indexes are derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes. Figure: Computers and Peripherals A line chart shows two series, "Industrial production (left scale)", and "Real M3 shipments (right scale)", from 2000 through June 2008. The industrial production curve is plotted as an index (2000 = 100) according to the left axis which ranges from 70 to 240, ratio scale. The real M3 shipments curve is plotted according to the right axis, which ranges from 7 to 24, ratio scale; unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars. The industrial production curve begins at about 90 in January 2000, fluctuates between about 90 and 110 through 2004. It then generally increases to end at about 209 by June 2008. The real M3 shipments curve begins at about 9.5 in 2000 fluctuates between about 8.5 and 12 through late 2004. It then generally increases to end at about 19 by June 2008. Note. Ratio scales. Shipments are deflated by the staff price index for computers and peripheral equipment, which is derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes. Figure: Medium and Heavy Trucks A line chart shows two series, "Sales of class 4-8 trucks" and "Net new orders of class 5-8 trucks", from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is thousands of units, ratio scale. As shown in the figure, the "sales of class 4-8 trucks" series starts at about 515 in January 1999, generally decreases to about 285 by late 2003, and then generally increases to about 580 by late 2006. The curve then decreases to about 325 by mid-2007, and ends at about 280 in June 2008. As shown in the figure, the "Net new orders of class 5-8 trucks" curve starts at about 390 in January 2000, generally increases to about 520 by early 2002. It then generally decreases to about 240 by late 2002, generally increases to about 720 in 2004, and peaks at about 930 by early 2006. The curve then generally decreases to about 275 by early 2007, generally increases to about 400 in early 2008, and decreases to end at about 360 in June 2008. Note. Annual rate, FRB seasonals. Source. For sales, Ward's Communications; for orders, ACT Research. Fundamentals of Equipment and Software Investment Figure: Real Business Output A line chart shows a single series from 1989:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. The series begins at about 2.8 percent in 1998:Q4, decreases to about -2 .1 by 1991:Q1, increases to about 5 in 1992:Q4 and fluctuates between about 2.8 and 5.5 through 2001:Q1. It then decreases to about -0.5 by 2001:Q1, increases to about 5 by 2004:Q2 and then decreases to end at about 2.9 by 2008:Q1. Source. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: User Cost of Capital A line chart shows two series, "Non-high tech", and "High-tech" from 1989 through 2008:Q1. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. The non-high tech series begins at about -3 in 1989:Q1, increases to about 11 by 1994:Q1 fluctuates between about 4.5 and -6 through 2001 and decreases to about -9 by mid-2003. It then increases to about 2 by 2006, decreases to end at about -2 in 2007 and increases to end at about 1 in 2008:Q1. The high-tech series begins at about -8.9 in 1989:Q1, increases to about -2.8 by 1994:Q1 fluctuates between about -3 and -13 through 2003. It then increases to end at about -4.5 in 2008:Q1. Source. Staff calculation. Figure: Corporate Bond Yields A line chart shows two series, "10-year high-yield", and "10-year BBB" from 2000 through July 29, 2008. Unit is percent. The 10-year high-yield series begins at about 11 percent in early 2000, increases to about 13.5 by late 2000 and generally decreases to about 7.25 by 2005:Q1. It then generally increases to about 10.5 in early 2008, decreases to about 9.7 and increases to end at about 10.5 on July 29, 2008. The 10-year BBB series begins at about 8.25 percent in early 2000, it increases to about 9 by 2000:Q2 and generally decreases to about 5 by 2003:Q2. It then fluctuates between about 5 and 6.5 through 2006:Q2, and increases to end at about 7.25 on July 29, 2008. Note. Daily averages based on Merrill Lynch bond data. Figure: Corporate Cash Flow A line chart shows two series, "Real cash flow (left scale)", and "Ratio of cash flow to fixed investment (right scale)" from 1990 through 2008:Q1. The left scale range is between 300 and 1700; unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars. The right scale is between 0.7 and 1.5; unit is ratio. The "Real cash flow" series begins at about 400 in 1990 and generally increases to about 1400 in 2006, end decreases to about 1280 and then increases to end at about 1300 in 2008:Q1. The "Ratio of cash flow to fixed investment" series begins at about 1.01 in 1990, increases to about 1.24 by 1991, decreases to about 0.88 by 2000 and then increases to about 1.38 by 2003. It decreases to about 1 in 2007:Q4 and then increases to end at about 1.04 in 2008:Q1. Note. Cash flow and fixed investment for the corporate business sector. Source. Bureau of Economic Analysis; FRB flow of funds accounts. Figure: Surveys of Business Conditions A line chart shows two series, "ISM", and "Philadelphia Fed" from 2000 through July 2008. Unit is diffusion index. The ISM series begins at about 55 in 2000, decreases to about 40 by 2001:Q4, increases to about 62 by 2004:Q2, and decreases to end at about 50 in June 2008. The Philadelphia Fed series begins at about 55 in 2000 decreases to about 32 by 2001:Q1, increases to about 68 by 2004, and decreases to end at about 42 in July 2008. Source. Manufacturing ISM Report on Business; Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey. Nonresidential Construction and Indicators (All spending series are seasonally adjusted at an annual rate; nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q1 and by staff projection thereafter) Figure: Total Structures A line chart shows a single series, "Total Structures" from 1999 through May 2008. Unit is Billions of chained (2000) dollars. The series begins at about 255 in 1999, generally increases to about 289 in 2000:Q3, it generally decreases to about 200 in 2004:Q2, and then generally increases to end at about 280 in May 2008. Figure: Office, Commercial, and Other A line chart shows three series, "Office", "Commercial", and "Other" from 1999 through May 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars. The office series begins at about 47.5 in 1999, decreases to about 42.5 in 2000:Q1, it generally increases to about 57.5 in 2000:Q4, and generally decreases to about 26 in 2003. It then generally increases to end at about 38 in May 2008. The commercial series begins at about 57.5 in 1999, generally increases to about 65 in 2000, generally decreases to about 50 in late 2002, fluctuates between about 50 and 58 through 2007 and ends at about 57 in May 2008. The other series begins at about 70 in 1999, generally decreases to about 60 in 2005, and then generally increases to end at about 85 in May 2008. Note. Other consists of structures for religious organizations, education, lodging, amusement and recreation, transportation, and health care. Figure: Manufacturing and Power & Communication A line chart shows two series, "Power & communication", and "Manufacturing" from 1999 through May 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars. The "Power & communication" series begins at about 39 in 1999, generally increases to about 55 in 2000:Q4, decreases to about 39 in 2001:Q1, and generally increases to about 59 in 2001:Q4. It then generally decreases to about 31 by mid-2004, and generally increases to end at about 58 in May, 2008. The "Manufacturing" series begins at about 40 in 1999, decreases to about 32 in 2000:Q1, it generally increases to about 42 in 2001:Q1, and generally decreases to about 18 in 2003:Q1. It then generally increases to end at about 38 in May 2008. Figure: Architectural Billings and Nonresidential Construction Employment A line chart shows two series, "Billings (right scale)", and "Change in employment (left scale)", from 1999 through May 2008. The right scale ranges from 35 to 60; unit is diffusion index. The left scale ranges from -1.0 to 3.0 percent; unit is percent. The "Billings (right scale)" series begins at about 55 in 1999, decreases to about 52.5 in 1999:Q2, increases to about 56 in 1999:Q4, and generally decreases to about 44 in 2001:Q4. It then generally increases to about 59 in 2005:Q4, decreases to about 50 in 2006:Q3, and generally increases to about 57.5 in 2007:Q3. The series generally decreases to end at about 45 in May 2008. The "Change in employment (left scale)" series begins at about 0 in 2001:Q1, it generally decreases to about -0.8 in 2002:Q2, then generally increases to about 0.75 in 2006:Q1, and generally decreases to end at about -0.45 in May 2008. Note. Both series are 3-month moving averages. Employment consists of industrial, commercial, and specialty trade construction. Source. For billings, American Institute of Architects; for employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure: Vacancy Rates A line chart shows three series, "Office", "Industrial", and "Retail" from 1999 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent. The Office series begins at about 9.5 in 1999, it decreases to about 8 in 2000:Q2, increases to about 17 in 2003:Q1, and decreases to end at about 13 in 2008:Q1. The Industrial series begins at about 7.5 1999, decreases to about 7 in 2000, increases to about 12 in 2003 and then generally decreases to end at about 10 in 2008:Q1. The Retail series begins at about 8.8 in 1999, increases to about 10 in 2002:Q4, decreases to about 7 in 2005:Q4, and increases to end at about 9.5 in 2008:Q1. Note. Industrial space includes both manufacturing structures and warehouses. Source. Torto Wheaton Research. Figure: Drilling and Mining Indicators A line chart shows two series, "Footage drilled (left scale)", and "Drilling rigs (right scale)", from 1999 through July 2008. The left scale ranges from 0 to 35; unit is millions of feet. The right scale ranges from 400 to 2400; unit is number. The "Footage drilled" series begins at about 7.5 million feet in 1999, decreases to about 5.5 shortly after, generally increases to about 15 in 2001:Q2, and generally decreases to about 11 in 2002. It then generally increases and ends at about 27.5 in June 2008. The "Drilling rigs" series begins at about 600 in 1999, decreases to about 500 in 1999:Q2, increases to about 1250 in 2001:Q2, decreases to about 790 in 2002:Q2, and then generally increases to end at about 1900 in July 2008. Note. The June readings for drilling rigs are based on data through July 25, 2008. Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Source. DOE/Baker Hughes. Nonfarm Inventory Investment (Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate) 2007 2008 Measure and sector Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar. Apr. May Real inventory investment (chained 2000 dollars) Total nonfarm business 26.0 -21.7 -18.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. Motor vehicles 13.3 -25.7 -18.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. Nonfarm ex. motor vehicles 12.7 4.0 -.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts 18.1 7.6 9.3 -39.9 -24.4 e n.a. e n.a. 10.0 e n.a. Manufacturing Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts 3.1 8.5 16.5 13.9 -8.8 .0 7.6 -47.1 -24.2 e 1.1 7.9 -7.2 -23.3 12.8 n.a. 41.4 70.4 95.8 56.9 78.1 71.7 Manufacturing 16.2 34.7 60.5 61.4 -1.9 33.7 Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts 22.0 23.0 39.0 12.8 56.8 40.2 3.2 12.7 -3.7 -17.3 23.2 -2.3 Book-value inventory investment (current dollars) Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts n.a. Not available. e Staff estimate of real inventory investment based on revised book-value data. Return to table Source. For real inventory investment, BEA; for book-value data, Census Bureau. Figure: Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles A line chart shows two series, "Staff flow-of-goods system", and "Census book-value data" from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is months. The "Staff flow-of-goods system" series begins at about 1.77 months in 2000, decreases to about 1.74 in 2000:Q2, generally increases to about 1.78 in 2001:Q4 and generally decreases to about 1.58 in 2007:Q1. It then increases to end at about 1.62 in June 2008. The "Census book-value data" series begins at about 1.35 in 2000, increases to about 1.4 in 2001, generally decreases to about 1.18 in 2005, and increases to about 1.24 in 2006:Q4. It then decreases to end at about 1.17 in May 2008. Note. Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to sales. Figure: ISM Customer Inventories: Manufacturing A line chart shows a single series, "ISM Customer Inventories: Manufacturing", from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is an index. The series begins at about 46 in 2000, it generally increases to about 56 in 2001:Q1, then generally decreases to about 39 in 2002:Q2, and generally increases to about 46 in 2002:Q4. It then generally increases to about 54 in 2007:Q4, and then generally decreases to end at about 55 in June 2008. Note. A number above 50 indicates inventories are "too high." Federal Government Budget (Unified basis; adjusted for payment-timing shifts and financial transactions; data from Monthly Treasury Statement) Figure: Surplus or Deficit (-) 12-month moving sum Period Billions of dollars January 1994 -260.72 February 1994 -255.48 March 1994 -243.41 April 1994 -230.42 May 1994 -222.24 June 1994 -215.19 July 1994 -213.57 August 1994 -207.36 September 1994 -202.86 October 1994 -197.40 November 1994 -196.19 December 1994 -196.45 January 1995 -198.08 February 1995 -192.61 March 1995 -203.00 April 1995 -188.00 May 1995 -190.43 June 1995 -188.93 July 1995 -184.81 August 1995 -192.32 September 1995 -189.06 October 1995 -181.31 November 1995 -181.97 December 1995 -169.71 January 1996 -165.01 February 1996 -169.01 March 1996 -173.48 April 1996 -142.02 May 1996 -146.38 June 1996 -138.77 July 1996 -136.17 August 1996 -134.43 September 1996 -124.56 October 1996 -132.27 November 1996 -127.92 December 1996 -126.69 January 1997 -123.81 February 1997 -124.35 March 1997 -107.86 April 1997 -87.28 May 1997 -84.11 June 1997 -69.12 July 1997 -67.99 August 1997 -62.30 September 1997 -47.43 October 1997 -35.04 November 1997 -26.85 December 1997 -18.69 January 1998 -6.30 February 1998 -3.26 March 1998 4.97 April 1998 33.68 May 1998 36.31 June 1998 46.93 July 1998 57.44 August 1998 65.80 September 1998 63.50 October 1998 62.66 November 1998 62.14 December 1998 70.96 January 1999 79.26 February 1999 79.19 March 1999 79.19 April 1999 80.37 May 1999 85.61 June 1999 87.99 July 1999 87.23 August 1999 94.22 September 1999 112.74 October 1999 114.94 November 1999 115.50 December 1999 126.86 January 2000 144.90 February 2000 144.64 March 2000 141.73 April 2000 169.73 May 2000 199.39 June 2000 211.43 July 2000 223.33 August 2000 224.84 September 2000 243.21 October 2000 248.24 November 2000 250.56 December 2000 250.58 January 2001 265.61 February 2001 259.01 March 2001 244.50 April 2001 274.25 May 2001 250.11 June 2001 226.81 July 2001 211.27 August 2001 180.04 September 2001 140.85 October 2001 132.11 November 2001 114.03 December 2001 106.03 January 2002 60.72 February 2002 33.81 March 2002 9.94 April 2002 -102.80 May 2002 -144.49 June 2002 -168.49 July 2002 -178.18 August 2002 -179.75 September 2002 -185.16 October 2002 -209.72 November 2002 -215.40 December 2002 -245.24 January 2003 -255.56 February 2003 -275.33 March 2003 -281.22 April 2003 -297.32 May 2003 -304.90 June 2003 -313.88 July 2003 -338.43 August 2003 -359.60 September 2003 -372.78 October 2003 -382.11 November 2003 -389.76 December 2003 -399.76 January 2004 -412.20 February 2004 -425.31 March 2004 -427.80 April 2004 -448.74 May 2004 -446.81 June 2004 -436.48 July 2004 -439.19 August 2004 -428.56 September 2004 -415.06 October 2004 -414.13 November 2004 -416.33 December 2004 -400.30 January 2005 -403.45 February 2005 -408.04 March 2005 -406.04 April 2005 -365.35 May 2005 -339.56 June 2005 -336.27 July 2005 -333.07 August 2005 -330.42 September 2005 -312.66 October 2005 -310.82 November 2005 -336.62 December 2005 -321.96 January 2006 -310.32 February 2006 -315.98 March 2006 -315.76 April 2006 -281.97 May 2006 -275.28 June 2006 -262.64 July 2006 -257.10 August 2006 -270.66 September 2006 -259.21 October 2006 -251.75 November 2006 -241.59 December 2006 -228.57 January 2007 -206.49 February 2007 -207.47 March 2007 -217.77 April 2007 -159.90 May 2007 -184.19 June 2007 -172.69 July 2007 -180.55 August 2007 -184.60 September 2007 -180.15 October 2007 -182.64 November 2007 -188.39 December 2007 -189.11 January 2008 -209.68 February 2008 -235.74 March 2008 -232.40 April 2008 -235.94 May 2008 -314.05 June 2008 -348.53 Figure: Outlays and Receipts 12-month moving sum Percent change from year earlier Period Outlays Receipts January 1994 2.93 6.85 February 1994 2.81 7.19 March 1994 2.12 7.00 April 1994 1.82 8.44 May 1994 1.82 8.77 June 1994 1.72 8.87 July 1994 1.85 9.09 August 1994 1.64 9.19 September 1994 1.65 9.04 October 1994 1.78 9.77 November 1994 1.66 9.37 December 1994 2.03 8.74 January 1995 2.68 8.56 February 1995 2.82 8.69 March 1995 3.66 7.76 April 1995 4.56 8.93 May 1995 4.87 8.35 June 1995 5.26 8.31 July 1995 5.34 8.58 August 1995 5.49 7.61 September 1995 5.50 7.48 October 1995 5.06 7.11 November 1995 5.01 6.91 December 1995 4.28 7.03 January 1996 3.97 7.15 February 1996 4.42 6.90 March 1996 3.80 6.67 April 1996 3.60 7.59 May 1996 3.22 7.01 June 1996 2.43 6.52 July 1996 2.72 6.71 August 1996 2.37 7.02 September 1996 2.39 7.49 October 1996 3.22 7.27 November 1996 3.25 7.65 December 1996 4.15 7.81 January 1997 4.03 7.50 February 1997 3.39 7.03 March 1997 3.49 8.68 April 1997 3.35 7.54 May 1997 3.16 7.87 June 1997 3.81 9.07 July 1997 3.51 8.59 August 1997 3.26 8.58 September 1997 3.11 8.69 October 1997 2.53 9.44 November 1997 2.15 9.24 December 1997 2.29 9.81 January 1998 1.95 10.04 February 1998 2.15 10.49 March 1998 2.09 9.75 April 1998 2.04 10.07 May 1998 1.84 9.81 June 1998 1.68 9.23 July 1998 1.43 9.54 August 1998 1.67 9.94 September 1998 2.22 9.31 October 1998 2.13 8.30 November 1998 2.96 8.58 December 1998 2.36 7.93 January 1999 2.44 7.70 February 1999 2.25 7.29 March 1999 2.91 7.41 April 1999 2.93 5.65 May 1999 2.93 5.80 June 1999 3.25 5.58 July 1999 3.43 5.06 August 1999 3.67 5.19 September 1999 2.86 5.61 October 1999 2.98 5.90 November 1999 2.71 5.68 December 1999 3.26 6.33 January 2000 3.20 6.79 February 2000 3.66 7.22 March 2000 3.37 6.75 April 2000 3.18 8.07 May 2000 4.33 10.52 June 2000 3.96 10.66 July 2000 3.80 11.20 August 2000 4.05 11.07 September 2000 4.20 11.10 October 2000 4.56 11.57 November 2000 4.26 11.35 December 2000 3.55 9.96 January 2001 4.41 10.51 February 2001 4.33 10.06 March 2001 4.36 9.47 April 2001 4.70 9.73 May 2001 3.87 6.05 June 2001 4.31 4.63 July 2001 4.82 3.68 August 2001 5.09 2.29 September 2001 5.30 -0.40 October 2001 5.17 -1.15 November 2001 5.87 -1.53 December 2001 6.11 -1.72 January 2002 6.16 -4.51 February 2002 6.46 -5.20 March 2002 6.21 -5.86 April 2002 6.81 -11.98 May 2002 7.61 -12.22 June 2002 7.15 -12.69 July 2002 7.49 -12.11 August 2002 6.79 -11.34 September 2002 7.26 -9.41 October 2002 7.54 -9.91 November 2002 6.89 -9.86 December 2002 7.58 -10.31 January 2003 7.06 -9.14 February 2003 6.84 -8.99 March 2003 7.34 -7.64 April 2003 6.84 -3.28 May 2003 6.26 -2.01 June 2003 7.04 -0.34 July 2003 6.85 -1.29 August 2003 7.20 -1.98 September 2003 7.38 -2.14 October 2003 7.36 -1.28 November 2003 7.47 -1.26 December 2003 7.27 -0.32 January 2004 7.34 -0.33 February 2004 7.51 0.29 March 2004 7.43 0.45 April 2004 7.40 0.18 May 2004 7.45 0.80 June 2004 6.98 1.40 July 2004 6.93 2.62 August 2004 6.99 4.54 September 2004 6.20 5.13 October 2004 5.49 4.88 November 2004 6.06 5.90 December 2004 5.98 7.28 January 2005 6.43 8.39 February 2005 6.28 8.73 March 2005 6.23 8.91 April 2005 6.51 12.78 May 2005 6.55 14.09 June 2005 6.78 13.88 July 2005 6.35 13.63 August 2005 6.41 13.14 September 2005 7.20 14.23 October 2005 7.92 15.16 November 2005 8.36 14.39 December 2005 8.24 14.03 January 2006 8.00 14.46 February 2006 8.13 14.55 March 2006 8.14 14.40 April 2006 7.53 13.00 May 2006 8.40 12.90 June 2006 8.33 13.21 July 2006 8.63 13.64 August 2006 8.70 12.89 September 2006 8.61 12.36 October 2006 8.31 12.23 November 2006 6.89 12.33 December 2006 6.60 11.82 January 2007 6.26 11.80 February 2007 5.85 11.53 March 2007 5.69 10.84 April 2007 5.95 12.02 May 2007 4.44 8.88 June 2007 3.79 8.03 July 2007 4.02 7.67 August 2007 3.72 7.75 September 2007 2.84 6.42 October 2007 2.91 6.06 November 2007 3.44 5.97 December 2007 3.91 5.88 January 2008 4.14 4.36 February 2008 4.61 3.86 March 2008 4.10 3.88 April 2008 4.56 1.88 May 2008 6.12 1.45 June 2008 6.76 0.31 Recent Federal Outlays and Receipts (Billions of dollars except as noted) April-June Function or source 2007 2008 12 months ending in June Percent change 2007 2008 Percent change Outlays Net interest 682.8 762.4 11.7 2,721.0 2,904.8 6.8 65.2 58.6 -10.1 234.4 245.6 4.8 National defense 139.5 155.9 11.8 551.3 603.6 9.5 Major transfers1 377.7 437.7 15.9 1,495.8 1,610.0 7.6 Other 100.3 110.2 9.8 439.5 445.6 1.4 824.4 787.9 -4.4 2,548.3 2,556.2 .3 Individual income and payroll taxes 633.0 611.9 -3.3 1,956.2 2,002.8 2.4 Corporate income taxes 125.6 107.0 -14.8 382.3 327.2 -14.4 65.9 68.9 4.7 209.8 226.3 7.8 Receipts Other Surplus or deficit (-) 141.6 25.5 … -172.7 -348.5 … 137.5 44.1 … -162.7 -309.2 … Memo: Unadjusted surplus or deficit (-) 1. Includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income security programs. Return to table … Not applicable. State and Local Indicators Figure: Real Spending on Consumption & Investment A line chart shows two series, "Spending", and "4-quarter moving average" from 1998 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent change, annual rate. The "Spending" series begins at about 1.5 percent in 1998, widely fluctuates between about 8.2 and -2.5 throughout the period and then decreases to end at about 1 in 2008:Q1. The "4-quarter moving average" series begins at about 6 percent in 1999, decreases to about 1.9 in 2001, increases to about 4.2 in late 2001, and decreases to about -0.5 in 2004. It then increases to about 2.5 in 2007:Q4 and then decreases slightly to end at about 2.1 in 2008:Q1. Figure: Net Change in Employment A bar chart shows net change in employment from 1998 through 2008:Q1. Unit is thousands of jobs, monthly average. The estimated values for the series are as follows: 1998: 26. 1999: 39. 2000: 25. 2001: 45. 2002: 17. 2003: 0. 2004: 15. 2005: 14. 2006: 17. 2007: 20. 2008: Q1: 17, Q2: 21. Figure: Real Construction A line chart shows a single series from 1997:Q4 through 2008:Q2. Data is an annual rate; unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars. The series begins at about 155 in 1997:Q4, decreases to about 146 in 1998, increases to about 188 in 2002:Q1, decreases to about 170 in 2005:Q1, then increases to about 183 in early 2008 and decreases to end at about 179 in 2008:Q2. Note. Nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q1 and by a staff projection thereafter. Observation for Q2 is the average for April and May (approximately 181). Figure: State Fiscal Reserve Balances at Year-End A line chart shows two series, "June 2008", and "December 2007" from 1988 through 2009. Unit is percent of expenditures. Four dots are placed on the chart between the ranges of 6 to 10 from years 2007 through 2008. Two vertical shaded bars represent business recession for mid-1990 to early 1991 and 2001. The "June 2008" series begins at about 4.1 in 1988, increases to about 4.8 in 1999, decreases to about 1.1 in 1991, and generally increases to about 10.5 in 2000. It decreases to about 3.1 in 2003, increases to about 11.5 in 2006, and decreases to about 8 (dot) in 2008, and ends at about 7.5 (dot) in FY2009. The "December 2007" series begins at about 11.5 in December 2007, and decreases to about 9.5 in 2007, and ends at about 6.75 (dot) in 2008. Note. Dots indicate estimated fiscal reserve balances; value for FY2009 is based on recommended budgets. The shaded bars are periods of business recession as defined by the Natl. Bureau of Economic Research. Source. Natl. Governors Assn. and Natl. Assn. of State Budget Officers, The Fiscal Survey of States. Figure: State Revenues A line chart shows two series, "Individual and corporate income taxes", and "Total revenues" from 1997:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Data is 4-quarter moving average; unit is percent change from year earlier. The "Individual and corporate income taxes" series begins at about 7.5 percent in 1997:Q4, increases to about 13 in 2000, decreases to about -12.5 in 2002, increases to about 17 in 2005 and then decreases to end at about 5 in 2008:Q1. The "Total revenues" series begins at about 5.1 percent in 1997:Q4, increases to about 9.5 in 2000, decreases to about -5 in 2002, increases to about 11 in 2005 and then decreases to end at about 3 in 2008:Q1. Source. Census Bureau. Figure: Local Revenues A line chart shows two series, "Property taxes", and "Total revenues" from 1997:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Data is 4-quarter moving average; unit is percent change from year earlier. The "Property taxes" series begins at about 4.1 percent in 1997:Q4, decreases to about 2.2 in 1998, increases to about 11 in late 2002, decreases to about 3 in 2003 and increases to about 9 in 2005. It then decreases to end at about 4.7 in 2008:Q1. The "Total revenues" series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1997:Q4, decreases to about 1 in 1999, increases to about 8 in late 2002, and decreases to about 2.5 in 2003. It then increases to about 9 in 2005 and decreases to end at about 5.2 in 2008:Q1. Source. Census Bureau. Price Measures (Percent change) 12-month change 3-month change Annual rate Measures 1-month change Monthly rate June 2007 June 2008 Mar. 2008 June 2008 May 2008 June 2008 CPI Total 2.7 5.0 3.1 7.9 .6 1.1 Food 4.1 5.3 5.3 8.5 .3 .8 Energy 4.6 24.7 8.6 53.6 4.4 6.6 Ex. food and energy 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.5 .2 .3 Core goods -.8 .2 -.1 -.1 -.1 .1 Core services 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.6 .3 .4 Shelter 3.8 2.5 2.2 2.2 .2 .3 Other services 2.8 4.3 3.9 5.4 .5 .5 Chained CPI (n.s.a.) 1 2.4 4.2 … … … … 1.8 2.1 … … … … 2.3 3.8 3.0 5.7 .4 .8 Food and beverages 3.8 5.0 5.4 7.2 .2 .6 Energy 4.4 20.3 8.3 53.1 4.3 6.8 Ex. food and energy 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.1 .1 .3 -.9 .0 .5 -.3 -.2 .1 Ex. food and energy 1 PCE prices 2 Total Core goods Core services 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 .2 .3 Shelter 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.4 .2 .3 Other services 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.2 .3 .3 Core market-based 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.2 .1 .3 Core non-market-based 2.7 3.2 3.7 1.6 .0 .3 3.3 9.2 10.7 14.1 1.4 1.8 PPI Total finished goods Food 6.5 8.3 9.9 9.6 .8 1.5 Energy 5.1 27.0 25.5 51.9 4.9 6.0 Ex. food and energy 1.7 3.0 5.3 3.7 .2 .2 Core consumer goods 1.8 3.4 5.7 4.2 .3 .3 Capital equipment 1.6 2.5 4.3 3.2 .1 .3 Intermediate materials Ex. food and energy Crude materials Ex. food and energy 3.6 14.5 18.3 26.8 2.9 2.1 2.6 8.4 10.4 19.3 2.0 1.3 15.5 45.5 78.0 70.1 6.7 3.7 10.2 33.0 59.2 63.4 5.0 -.2 1. Higher-frequency figures are not applicable for data that are not seasonally adjusted. Return to table 2. PCE prices in June 2008 are staff estimates. Return to table … Not applicable. Consumer Prices Figure: PCE Prices A line chart shows two series, "Total PCE", and "Core PCE" from 2000 through June 2008*. Unit is percent. The "Total PCE" series begins at about 2.3 percent in 2000, generally decreases to about 1 by mid-2002, generally increases to about 4 in 2003:Q3, and generally decreases to about 1.5 in 2006:Q4. The series generally increases to about 2.5 in 2007:Q1, decreases to about 1.8 in 2007:Q3, and generally increases to end at about 3.75 in June 2008. The "Core PCE" series begins at about 1.75 in 2000, fluctuates between about 1.3 and 2.5 throughout the period and ends at about 2.3 in June 2008. * Staff estimate. Return to text Figure: CPI and PCE ex. Food and Energy A line chart shows three series, "CPI", "PCE", and "CPI chained", from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is percent. The "CPI" series begins at about 2 percent in 2000, generally increases to about 2.75 by 2001:Q4, it generally decreases to about 1.1 in 2003:Q4, and generally increases to about 2.4 in 2005:Q1. The series generally increases to about 3 in 2006:Q3, and then generally decreases to end at about 2.4 in June 2008. The "PCE" series begins at about 1.75 in 2000, fluctuates between about 1.3 and 2.5 throughout the period and ends at about 2.3 in June 2008*. The "CPI chained" series begins at about 1.9 in 2001, generally increases to about 2.2 in 2001:Q1, and generally decreases to about 0.7 in by 2003:Q4. It then generally increases to about 2.6 in 2006:Q3, generally decreases to about 1.6 in 2007:Q3, and generally increases to end at about 2.1 in June 2008. * PCE for June is a staff estimate. Return to text Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy A line chart shows two series, "PCE" and "Market-based components", from 2000 through June 2008*. Unit is percent. The "PCE" series begins at about 1.75 percent in 2000, fluctuates between about 1.4 and 2.4 through 2002, generally decreases to about 1.3 in 2003:Q3, and generally increases to about 2.5 in 2007:Q1. The series decreases to about 1.9 in 2007:Q3, and generally increases to end at about 2.3 in June 2008. The "Market-based components" series begins at about 1.25 percent in early 2000, generally increases to about 1.8 by mid-2001, decreases to slightly less than 1 by late 2003, increases to about 2.25 by early 2007, decreases to about 1.7 later that year, and ends at slightly more than 2 percent in June 2008. * Staff estimate. Return to text Figure: PCE Goods and Services A line chart shows two series, "Services ex. energy", and "Goods ex. food and energy", from 2000 through June 2008*. Unit is percent. The "Services ex. energy" series begins at about 2.8 percent in 2000, fluctuates between about 2.2 and 3.9 throughout the period, and ends at about 3.1 in June 2008. The "Goods ex. food and energy" series begins at about -0.7 in 2000, generally increases to about 0.3 shortly after, and in 2001:Q1. The series generally decreases to about -2.7 in 2003:Q3, it generally increases to about 0.4 in 2005:Q1, and 2006:Q3. It then generally decreases to about -1 in 2007:Q3, and increases to end at about 0 in June 2008. * Staff estimate. Return to text Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy A line chart shows two series, "PCE" and "3-month change, annual rate", from 2000 through June 2008*. Unit is percent. The "PCE" series begins at about 1.6 in 2000, fluctuates between about 1.2 and 2.4 throughout the period and ends at about 2.3 in June 2008. The "3-month change annual rate" series begins at about 2.3 in 2000, fluctuates between about 0.5 and 3 through 2003:Q2, decreases to about -0.5 in 2001:Q1, and increases to about 4.1 in 2001:Q4. The series fluctuates between about 0.7 and 3 through 2007, and ends at about 2.1 in June 2008. * Staff estimate. Return to text Figure: CPI excluding Food and Energy A line chart shows two series, "CPI", and "3-month change, annual rate", from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is percent. The "CPI" series begins at about 2 percent in 2000, generally increases to about 2.75 by 2001:Q4, it generally decreases to about 1.1 in 2003:Q4, and generally increases to about 2.4 in 2005:Q1. The series generally increases to about 3 in 2006:Q3, and then generally decreases to end at about 2.4 in June 2008. The "3-month change, annual rate" series begins at about 2.7 percent in 2000, fluctuates between about 2 and 3 through 2001, and generally decreases to about 0.2 in 2003:Q2. The series generally increases to about 3.5 in 2006:Q2, it fluctuates between about 1.2 and 3.2 through 2008:Q1 and ends at about 2.5 in June 2008. Energy and Food Price Indicators (Data from Energy Information Administration except as noted) Figure: Total Gasoline Margin A line chart shows a single series, "Retail price less average spot crude price"*, from 2005 through June 28, 2008. Unit is cents per gallon. The series begins at about 100 in 2005, generally decreases to about 75 by mid-2005, generally increases to about 155 in 2005:Q4, and fluctuates between about 90 and 160 through 2007. It then generally decreases to about 75 by mid-2008 and increases to end at about 105 on July 28, 2008. * Regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff, less average spot crude price: 60% WTI, 40% Maya heavy crude. Includes gasoline taxes. Return to text Figure: Gasoline Price Decomposition A line chart shows three series, "Retail price"*, "Rack price", and "Average spot crude price"**, from 2005 through June 28, 2008. Unit is cents per gallon. The "Retail price" series begins at about 198 in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates and generally increases to about 300 in 2006:Q3, and decreases to about 225 in 2006:Q4. It then generally increases to about 402 by mid-2008 and decreases to end at about 395 on June 28, 2008. The "Rack price" series begins at about 140 in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates and generally increases to about 240 in 2006:Q3, and decreases to about 155 in 2007:Q1. It then generally increases to about 350 by mid-2008 and decreases to end at about 310 on June 28, 2008. The "Average spot crude price" series begins at about 95 in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates and generally increases to about 170 in 2006:Q3, and generally decreases to about 110 in 2007:Q1. It then generally increases to about 325 by mid-2008, and decreases to end at about 290 on June 28, 2008. * Regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff. Return to text ** 60% WTI, 40% Maya heavy crude. Return to text Figure: Gasoline Inventories A line chart shows two series, "Excluding ethanol", and "Adjusted for ethanol use"*, from 2005 through July 25, 2008. Unit is millions of barrels. A shaded region shows average historical range. The "Excluding ethanol" series begins at about 222 in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates widely between about 180 and 234 through 2008:Q2, and ends at about 213 on July 25, 2008. The "Adjusted for ethanol use"* series begins at about 223 in 2006:Q1, it fluctuates widely between about 198 and 240 through 2008:Q2, and ends at about 219 on July 25, 2008. The shaded region fluctuates between about 193 and 220 throughout the period. Note. Shaded region is average historical range as calculated by DOE. Monthly data through May 2008, weekly data thereafter. * Adjustment for approximate amount of fuel ethanol to be blended with RBOB component of inventories; estimated by FRB staff. Return to text Figure: Ethanol Prices A line chart shows two series, "Near-futures price, daily", and "Monthly futures, July 29", from 2005 through 2008. Unit is cents per gallon. The "Near-futures price, daily" begins at about 120 in 2005:Q2, it generally increases to about 425 in 2006:Q2, and generally decreases to about 120 in 2006:Q3. The series increases to about 250 in late 2006, generally decreases to about 150 in 2007:Q3, and generally increases to about 290 in 2008:Q2. It then decreases and ends at about 250 in 2008:Q3. The "Monthly futures, July 29" series begins at about 249 in 2008:Q3, and ends at about the same in 2009:Q1. Source. Chicago Board of Trade. Figure: PCE Food Prices A line chart shows "Food and beverages", and "Ex. food and energy", from 2005 through June 2008.* Unit is 12-month percent change. The "Food and beverages" series begins at about 2.6 in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates between about 1.75 and 2.75 through 2006, and then generally increases to end at about 5.0 in June 2008. The "Ex. food and energy" series begins at about 2.25 in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates between about 1.8 and 2.5 throughout the period and ends at about 2.25 in June 2008. * Staff estimate. Return to text Source. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure: Spot Agricultural Commodity Prices A line chart shows three series, "Corn (left scale)", "Soybeans (right scale)", and "Wheat (right scale)", from 2005 through July 29, 2008. The left scale ranges from 0 to 9, and the right scale ranges from 0 to 16; unit is dollars per bushel. The "Corn" series begins at about 1.8 in 2005:Q1, it generally increases to about 4 in 2007:Q1, decreases to about 2.9 in 2007:Q3, increases to about 6.9 in 2008:Q2, and decreases to end at about 5.3 on July 29, 2008. The "Soybeans" series begins at about 5 in 2005:Q1, it generally increases to about 7 by mid-2005, and generally decreases to about 5 in late 2006. The series then generally increases and ends at about 13.9 on July 29, 2008. The "Wheat" series begins at about 4 in 2005: Q1, generally increases to about 13 in 2008 :Q1, and generally decreases to end at about 8.3 on July 29, 2008. Source. Commodity Research Bureau. Broad Measures of Inflation (Percent change, Q1 to Q1) Measure 2005 2006 2007 2008 Product prices GDP price index 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.2 3.3 3.1 2.9 1.9 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.5 3.5 3.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.8 3.1 2.3 3.4 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.2 3.5 1.8 1.6 2.2 1.8 3.0 3.7 2.4 4.2 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.2 2.2 3.7 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 Median CPI 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.1 Trimmed mean CPI 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 Trimmed mean PCE 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.3 Less food and energy Nonfarm business chain price index Expenditure prices Gross domestic purchases price index Less food and energy PCE price index Less food and energy PCE price index, market-based components Less food and energy CPI Less food and energy Chained CPI Less food and energy Surveys of Inflation Expectations (Percent) Reuters/Michigan Survey Period Actual CPI inflation1 1 year2 Mean Professional forecasters (10 years) 4 5 to 10 years 3 Median Mean Median CPI PCE 2006: Q3 3.3 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.5 … Q4 1.9 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 … 2007: Q1 2.4 3.6 3.0 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.0 Q2 2.7 4.2 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.0 Q3 2.4 4.1 3.2 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.1 Q4 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2008: Q1 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.2 Q2 4.4 6.4 5.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.2 2008: Mar. 4.0 4.6 4.3 3.2 2.9 … … Apr. 3.9 5.7 4.8 3.5 3.2 … … May June July 4.2 7.0 5.2 4.0 3.4 2.5 2.2 5.0 6.5 5.1 4.0 3.4 … … n.a. 6.3 5.1 3.5 3.2 … … 1. Percent change from the same period in the preceding year. Return to table 2. Responses to the question, By about what percent do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 12 months? Return to table 3. Responses to the question, By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 5 to 10 years? Return to table 4. Median CPI and PCE price projections compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Return to table … Not applicable. n.a. Not available. Measures of Expected Inflation Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/Michigan) A line chart shows two series, "Median, next 5 to 10 years", and "Median, next 12 months", from 1972 through 2008:Q2. Data is quarterly; unit is percent. The "Median, next 5 to 10 years" series begins at about 6.5 percent in 1981, and generally decreases to about 4.5 in 1985. It then disconnects and continues back in 1990 at about 4.3, generally decreases and ends at about 3.1 in 2008:Q2. The "Median, next 12 months" series begins at about 6 percent in 1978, increases to about 10.2 in 1980, generally decreases to about 2.5 in 1983, and fluctuates between about 2.3 and 4.8 through 2000. It then decreases to about 1 in late 2001, and generally increases to end at about 5 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/Michigan) A line chart shows two series, "Median, next 5 to 10 years", and "Median, next 12 months", from 1972 through 2008:Q2. Data is monthly; unit is percent. The "Median, next 5 to 10 years" series begins at about 2.7 percent in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates between about 2.75 and 3.2 through 2008:Q1, and ends at about 3.2 in July 2008. The "Median, next 12 months" series begins at about 2.9 percent in 2005:Q1, it generally increases to about 4.6 in 2005:Q4, and generally decreases to about 3 by 2007:Q1. It then generally increases to end at about 5.1 in July 2008. Figure: Inputs to Models of Inflation A line chart shows two series, "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation"* and "Distributed lag of core PCE inflation"**, from 1971 through 2008:Q2. Data is quarterly; unit is percent. The "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation" series begins at about 3 percent in 1971, generally increases to about 7.9 by 1981, and generally decreases to end at about 2.2 in 2008:Q2. The "Distributed lag of core PCE inflation" series begins at about 5 percent in 1971, decreases to about 3.5 in 1973, generally increases to about 8.5 in 1981 and generally decreases to end at about 2.1 in 2008:Q2. * For 2007 forward, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF); for 1991 to 2006, the equivalent SPF projection for the CPI; for 1981 to 1991, a related survey for the CPI conducted by Richard Hoey; and for the period preceding 1981, a model-based estimate constructed by Board staff. The survey data before 2007 are adjusted down 0.5 percentage point to put the CPI projections approximately on a PCE basis. Return to text ** Derived from one of the reduced-form Phillips curves used by Board staff. Return to text Figure: Inputs to Models of Inflation A line chart shows two series, "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation"* and "Distributed lag of core PCE inflation"**, from 1971 through 2008:Q2. Data is quarterly; unit is percent. The "FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation" series begins at about 1.9 percent in 2005:Q1, increases to about 2 by 2007:Q2, and then continues to increase and ends at about 2.2 in 2008:Q2. The "Distributed lag of core PCE inflation" series begins at about 1.8 percent in 2005:Q1, generally increases to about 2.4 in 2006:Q3, and generally decreases to end at about 2.2 in 2008:Q2. * For 2007 forward, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF); for 1991 to 2006, the equivalent SPF projection for the CPI. The survey data before 2007 are adjusted down 0.5 percentage point to put the CPI projections approximately on a PCE basis. Return to text ** Derived from one of the reduced-form Phillips curves used by Board staff. Return to text Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS A line chart shows two series, "5 to 10 years ahead", and "Next 5 years", from 2001 through 2008:Q2. Data is quarterly; unit is percent. The "5 to 10 years ahead" series begins at about 2.1 percent in 2001:Q1, it generally increases to about 3.1 in 2003:Q4 and 2004:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 2.5 in 2007:Q1, and increases to end at about 2.9 in 2008:Q2. The "Next 5 years" series begins at about 1.5 in 2001:Q1, it fluctuates between about 1.2 and 1.8 through 2003:Q2, and generally increases to about 2.7 in 2005:Q1. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.2 in 2008:Q2. Note. Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for the indexation-lag effect. Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS A line chart shows two series, "5 to 10 years ahead", and "Next 5 years", from 2001 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent. The "5 to 10 years ahead" series begins at about 2.7 in 2005:Q1, it fluctuates between about 2.4 and 2.8 through 2007, increases to about 3.2 in 2008:Q1, and then decreases to end at about 2.8 on July 29, 2008. The "Next 5 years" series begins at about" series begins at about 2.5 in 2005:Q1, and then generally decreases to end at about 2.2 on July 29, 2008. Note. Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for the indexation-lag effect. Commodity Price Indexes Figure: Journal of Commerce A line chart shows two series, "Industrials", and "Metals", from 1991 through July 29, 2008. Unit is ratio scale, 2006 = 100. The "Industrials" series begins at about 58 in 1991:Q1, it generally increases to about 70 in 1995:Q1, and generally decreases to about 50 in 1999:Q1. It then generally increases to about 62 in 2000:Q4, generally decreases to about 48 in 2001:Q4, and then generally increases to end at about 135 on July 29, 2008. The "Metals" series begins at about 45 in 1991:Q1, it generally decreases to about 37 in 1993:Q3, then generally increases to about 55 in 1995:Q1, and generally decreases to about 37 in 1998:Q4. The series generally increases to about 48 in 2000:Q1, decreases to about 33 in 2001:Q4, and then generally increases to end at about 140 on July 29, 2008. Note. The Journal of Commerce (JOC) industrial price index is based almost entirely on industrial commodities, with a small weight given to energy commodities. Copyright for Journal of Commerce data is held by CIBCR, 1994. Figure: Commodity Research Bureau A line chart shows two series, "Spot industrials", and "Futures" from 1991 through July 29, 2008. Unit is ratio scale, 1967 = 100. The "Spot industrials" series begins at about 300 in 1991:Q1, it generally decreases to about 250 in 1993:Q4, and generally increases to about 350 in 1995. The series generally decreases to about 225 in 2001:Q4, and generally increases to end at about 500 on July 29, 2008. The "Futures" series begins at about 225 in 1991:Q1, it generally decreases to about 200 in 1993:Q1, then generally increases to about 260 in 1996:Q2, and generally decreases to about 190 in 1999:Q1. The series generally increases to about 2000:Q3, then generally decreases to about 190 in 2001:Q4, and generally increases to end at about 550 on July 29, 2008. Note. The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) spot industrials index consists entirely of industrial commodities, excluding energy. The CRB futures index gives about a 60 percent weight to food commodities and splits the remaining weight roughly equally among energy commodities, industrial commodities, and precious metals. Selected Commodity Price Indexes (Percent change) Index 1 2007 12/18/07 to 6/17/08 2 6/17/08 2 to 7/29/08 52-week change to 7/29/08 JOC industrials 7.6 17.9 -1.9 11.4 JOC metals 2.1 17.9 2.2 8.7 CRB spot industrials 8.2 4.6 -1.2 .2 CRB spot foodstuffs 25.5 25.8 -1.9 29.8 CRB futures 18.2 24.4 -6.7 27.8 1. From the last week of the preceding year to the last week of the year indicated. Return to table 2. June 17, 2008, is the Tuesday preceding publication of the June Greenbook. Return to table † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts† Domestic Financial Developments Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) 2007 2008 Change to July 29 from selected dates (percentage points) Instrument Aug. 6 Jan. 31 June 24 July 29 2007 Aug. 6 2008 Jan. 31 2008 June 24 Short-term FOMC intended federal funds rate 5.25 3.00 2.00 2.00 -3.25 -1.00 .00 3-month 4.74 1.92 1.80 1.69 -3.05 -.23 -.11 6-month 4.72 2.02 2.20 1.91 -2.81 -.11 -.29 Treasury bills1 Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates) 2 1-month 5.26 2.95 2.36 2.35 -2.91 -.60 -.01 3-month 5.29 2.98 2.78 2.76 -2.53 -.22 -.02 3-month 5.34 3.01 2.80 2.82 -2.52 -.19 .02 6-month 5.27 2.93 3.17 3.17 -2.10 .24 .00 1-month 5.33 3.15 2.70 2.65 -2.68 -.50 -.05 3-month 5.35 3.15 3.00 3.00 -2.35 -.15 .00 8.25 6.00 5.00 5.00 -3.25 -1.00 .00 2-year 4.49 2.16 2.80 2.61 -1.88 .45 -.19 5-year 4.52 2.83 3.55 3.41 -1.11 .58 -.14 10-year 4.82 3.86 4.29 4.27 -.55 .41 -.02 5-year 2.43 .68 1.10 1.28 -1.15 .60 .18 10-year 2.48 1.35 1.76 1.81 -.67 .46 .05 4.51 4.39 4.76 4.77 .26 .38 .01 5.44 4.23 4.84 4.78 -.66 .55 -.06 5.34 4.28 4.98 4.81 -.53 .53 -.17 6.12 5.62 6.54 6.82 .70 1.20 .28 6.57 6.39 7.00 7.21 .64 .82 .21 9.21 9.80 10.13 10.46 1.25 .66 .33 6.59 5.68 6.45 6.63 .04 .95 .18 Large negotiable CDs 1 Eurodollar deposits 3 Bank prime rate Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury 4 U.S. Treasury indexed notes 5 Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer) 6 Private instruments 10-year swap 10-year FNMA 10-year AA 7 8 10-year BBB 8 10-year high yield 8 Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate)9 30-year fixed 1-year adjustable 5.65 5.05 Record high 5.27 5.49 2008 -.16 .44 .22 Change to July 29 from selected dates (percent) Stock exchange index Level Date Jan. 31 June 24 July 29 Record high 2008 Jan. 31 2008 June 24 Dow Jones Industrial 14,165 10-9-07 12,650 11,807 11,398 -19.53 -9.90 -3.47 S&P 500 Composite 1,565 10-9-07 1,379 1,314 1,263 -19.29 -8.37 -3.89 Nasdaq 5,049 3-10-00 2,390 2,368 2,320 -54.05 -2.94 -2.05 Russell 2000 856 7-13-07 713 708 715 -16.50 .18 .94 Wilshire 5000 15,807 10-9-07 13,897 13,421 12,900 -18.39 -7.17 -3.88 1. Secondary market. Return to table 2. Financial commercial paper. Return to table 3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. Return to table 4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Return to table 5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. Return to table 6. Most recent Thursday quote. Return to table 7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. Return to table 8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. Return to table 9. Home mortgage rates for July 29, 2008, are for the week ending July 24, 2008. Return to table NOTES: August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting. January 31, 2008, is the day after the January 2008 FOMC meeting. June 24, 2008, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement. Financial Institutions and Market Functioning (Data extend through July 29, 2008) Figure: GSE Stock Prices A line chart shows two series, "Fannie Mae", and "Freddie Mac" from January 2008 through July 2008. Data is daily; unit is dollars. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Fannie Mae" series begins at about $37.5 in January 2008, generally decreases to about 20 in March 2008, generally increases to about 34 in late March, and generally decreases to about 22.5 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series generally decreases to about 7.5 in July and ends at about 12 in late July 2008. The "Freddie Mac" series begins at about $32.5 in January 2008, generally decreases to about 17.5 in March 2008, and generally increases to about 32.5 shortly after in March. The series generally decreases to about 20, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, and decreases to about 5 briefly after the meeting in July 2008, and ends at about 8 in late July 2008. Figure: CDS Spreads for GSEs A line chart shows two series, "Fannie Mae", and "Freddie Mac", from January 2008 through July 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The two series overlap one another and track about the same. The two series begin at about 38 basis points in January 2008, generally increases to about 95 in March 2008, and generally decreases to about 20 in April 2008. The series then generally increases to about 55 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, increases to about 78 briefly after the meeting, and decreases to end at about 42 in July 2008. Figure: 30-Year Option-Adjusted Current MBS Coupon Spreads A line chart shows two series, "2006-07 Fannie Mae avg.: 73", and "2006-07 Freddie Mac avg.: 77" from January 2008 through July 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The "Fannie Mae" series begins at about 80 basis points in January 2008, generally increases to about 200 in March 2008, generally decreases to about 90 in May 2008, and then generally increases to about 125, around the time of June 2008 FOMC meeting. The series increases to about 167 shortly after the meeting and ends at about 150 in July 2008. The "Freddie Mac" series begins at about 75 basis points in January 2008, generally increases to about 200 in March 2008, generally decreases to about 90 in May 2008, and then generally increases to about 125, around the time of June 2008 FOMC meeting. The series increases to about 167 shortly after the meeting and ends at about 150 in July 2008. Note. Spread of the option-adjusted yield on newly issued 30-year MBS over comparable duration Treasury securites using Bloomberg's prepayment model. Source. Bloomberg. Figure: CDS Spreads for Investment Banks A line chart shows a single series, from January 2007 through July 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The series begins at about 10 in January 2007, generally increases to about 245 by March 2008, generally decreases to about 75 in May 2008, and generally increases to about 105, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series increases to about 149 briefly after the meeting and ends at about 120 in July 2008. Note. Median spread for 10 investment banks. Source. Markit. Figure: CDS Spreads for U.S. Commercial Banks A line chart shows two series, "Regional bank index", and "Large bank index", from January 2007 through July 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Regional bank index" series begins at about 10 in January 2007, increases to about 35 in August 2007, and generally increases to about 124 by March 2008. The series generally decreases to about 100 in June 2008, increases to about 125 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then increases to about 175 shortly after the meeting, and ends at about 155 in July 2008. The "Large bank index" series begins at about 5 in January 2007, increases to about 45 in August 2007, and generally increases to about 155 in March 2008. The series generally decreases to about 55 in May 2008, and generally increases to about 100 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then increases to about 125 shortly after the meeting, and end at about 110 in July 2008. Note. Median spreads for 8 regional and 5 large commercial banks. Source. Markit. Figure: Pricing in the Secondary Market for Leveraged Loans A line chart shows two series, "Bid price (right scale)", and "Bid-ask spread (left scale)", from January 2007 through July 2008. The right scale ranges from 86 to 104; unit is percent of par value. The left scale ranges from 50 to 300; unit is basis points. Data is daily. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Bid price" series begins at about 98 in January 2007, generally increases to about 99 in June 2007, and generally decreases to about 86 in February and March 2008. The series generally increases to about 89 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, and decreases to end at about 87 in July 2008. The "Bid-ask spread" series begins at about 60 in January 2007, generally increases to about 93 in August 2007, and generally decreases to about 90.5 in October 2007. The series generally increases to about 99 in February 2008, and generally decreases to about 94 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then increases shortly after the meeting and ends at about 94.5 in July 2008. Source. LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Pricing. Short-Term Funding and Interbank Markets Figure: Spread between Libor and OIS Rates A line chart shows two series, "from July 2007 through July 30, 2008. Data is daily, unit is basis points. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "1-month" series begins at about 5 basis points in July 2007, increases to about 95 by September 2007, decreases to about 18 by early November and increases to about 110 by December2007. It then decreases to about 9 in January 2008, increases to about 85 in April 2008, and decreases to about 45, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series ends at about the same on July 30, 2008. The "3-month" series begins at about 6 basis points in July 2007, increases to about 95 by September 2007, decreases to about 43 by early November and increases to about 110 by December2007. It then decreases to about 30 in January 2008, increases to about 95 in April 2008, and decreases to about 70, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series increases shortly after the meeting and ends at about 71 on July 30, 2008. Note. LIBOR quotes are taken at 6:00 am, and OIS quotes are observed at the close of business of the previous trading day. Figure: Spreads on 30-Day Commercial Paper A line chart shows two series, "A2/P2", and "ABCP" from July 2007 through July 29, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "A2/P2" series begins at about 15 basis points in July 2007, increases to about 98 in September, decreases to about 27 in early November and increases to about 150 by December 2007. It then declines to about 50 in January 2008. The series increases to about 100 in April 2008, decreases to about 75 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, and decreases briefly after the meeting to end at about 90 on July 29, 2008. The "ABCP" series begins at about 5 basis points in July 2007, increases to about 110 in September, decreases to about 25 in late October and increases to about 175 by December 2007. It then declines to about 30 in January 2008. The series increases to about 95 in April 2008, decreases to about 60 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting, and ends at about 55 on July 29, 2008. Note. The ABCP spread is the AA ABCP rate minus the AA financial rate. The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. Figure: Commercial Paper Spread for Financial Firms A line chart shows a single series from July 2007 through July 29, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The series begins at about 0 in July 2007, with some volatility, it generally increases to about 70 in December 2007, and 75 in April 2008, then generally decreases to about 20 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It generally increases and ends at about 30 on July 29, 2008. Note. 30-day AA financial rate minus 30-day AA nonfinancial rate. Source. Markit. Figure: Repo Rates on Treasury General Collateral A line chart shows two series, "Overnight", and "1-month", from July 2007 through July 29, 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The two series track very closely throughout the period. The two series begin at about 5 in July 2007, with some volatility generally decreases to about 0.5 (1-month), and 1.2 (Overnight) by March 2008, then they generally increase to about 2 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting and end at about the same on July 29, 2008. Figure: Primary Credit Borrowing A line chart shows a single series, "Weekly average (Wed.)", from July 2007 through July 23, 2008. Unit is billions of dollars. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The series begins at about 0 in July 2007, it generally increases to about 16 by May 2008, and decreases to about 15, around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then decreases to about 12.5 shortly after the meeting and increases to end at about 16 on July 23, 2008. Figure: Primary Dealer Credit Facility A line chart shows a single series, "Weekly average (Wed.)", from July 2007 through July 23, 2008. Unit is billions of dollars. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The series begins at about 0 in July 2007, it stays about the same through May 2008, increases to about 37.5 in April 2008, and generally decreases to about 7.5 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally decreases and ends at about 0 on July 23, 2008. Policy Expectations and Treasury Yields Figure: Eurodollar Rate A line chart plots two series, the September 2008 and March 2009 eurodollar rates from June 24 through July 29, 2008, sampled at 5-minute intervals from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. each business day, with no adjustments for term premiums. Unit is percent. Several notable events are marked with vertical tripwires. As shown in the figure, the September 2008 curve begins on June 24 at just over 3.1 percent, stays at about the same level through the FOMC statement June 25, and generally decreases to about 2.9 by ISM manufacturing July 1. It generally increases to about 2.95 by the employment report July 3, stays at about that level through July 11, then generally decreases to about 2.8 around the time of Chairman Bernanke's testimony July 15. The curve generally increases to about 2.85 by CPI July 16, continues to increase to almost 3.0 by July 23, generally decreases to just above 2.9 by Michigan confidence July 25, and ends at about 2.9 on July 29. As shown in the figure, the March 2009 curve begins on June 24 at about 3.7 percent, generally decreases to about 3.6 later the same day, and generally increases to almost 3.7 by the FOMC statement June 25. It generally decreases to about 3.2 by ISM manufacturing July 1, generally increases to almost 3.4, and generally decreases back to about 3.2 by the employment report July 3. The curve then generally decreases to just above 2.9 around Chairman Bernanke's testimony July 15, generally increases to almost 3.0 by CPI July 16, and continues to increase to just over 3.4 by July 23. It generally decreases to about 3.2 percent by Michigan confidence July 25, and ends just under 3.2 percent on July 29. Figure: Implied Federal Funds Rate A line chart shows implied federal funds rate for July 2008 through October 2010, estimated on June 24 and July 29, 2008. Unit is percent. The June 24 curve begins at about 2.0 percent in July 2008, and steadily increases to about 4.2 percent by October 2010. The July 29 curve begins at about 2.0 percent in July 2008, and generally increases to about 3.85 percent by October 2010. Note. Estimated from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments. Figure: Implied Volatility of Interest Rates A line chart plots two series: "10-year Treasury (right scale)", and "6-month Eurodollar (left scale)"*, from October 2005 through July 29, 2008. Data are daily; unit is basis points. The range of the left axis is approximately 30 to 300. The range of the right axis is 200 to 1200. Due to the choice of ranges, the two curves appear to track closely between about December 2005 and June 2006, and both series track fairly closely throughout the chart. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a trip wire. As shown in the figure, the 6-month Eurodollar series begins October 2005 at about 110 basis points. The curve fluctuates between about 80 and 110 until December 2006, when it increases slightly to about 130. Then it declines to about 60 in January 2007 until the end of February, when it increases to about 130 again. It generally decreases to below 50 towards the end of May 2007. In June 2007 it increases to about 75, and starts to rise in late July 2007, reaching close to 250. The series declines to about 130 by October 2007, then increases just above 200 by January 2008, and decreases to about 110 by April. It generally increases to about 160 around the time of the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 150 on July 29. As shown in the figure, the 10-year Treasury series begins October 2005 around 500 basis points. The curve generally decreases to about 400 by September 2006, and fluctuates between about 350 and 500 through June 2007. It generally increases to about 700 by August, declines to below 500 in November 2007, then generally increases to about 1000 by March 2008. The curve then fluctuates between about 700 and 900 through the end of the period, reaching about 800 around the time of the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ending just under 800 on July 29. * Width of a 90 percent confidence interval computed from the term structures for the expected federal funds rate and implied volatility. Return to text Figure: Treasury Yield Curve A line chart plots two series, Treasury yields 0 to 20 years ahead, estimated on June 24 and July 29, 2008. Unit is percent. The June 24 curve starts at about 2.3 percent and steadily increases to about 4.75 by year 20. The July 29 curve starts at about 2.1 percent and steadily increases to about 4.75 by year 20. Note. Smoothed yield curve estimated from off-the-run Treasury coupon securities. Yields shown are those on notional par Treasury securities with semiannual coupons. Figure: Inflation Compensation A line chart shows two series, "5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next five years"*, from January 2007 through July 29, 2008. Data are daily; unit is percent. As shown in the figure, the "5 to 10 years ahead" curve starts at about 2.45 percent. It fluctuates between about 2.4 and 2.6 through mid-June 2007, and between about 2.6 and 2.7 from mid-June through early September 2007. It rises just above 2.8 in mid-September, then fluctuates between about 2.6 and 2.8 through midJanuary 2008. It then generally increases to about 3.0 by late January, and to about 3.2 by March, then generally decreases to about 2.75 by late April. The curve then fluctuates between about 2.7 and 2.9 through the end of the period, reaching about 2.7 around the time of the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ending at about 2.9 on July 29. As shown in the figure, the "Next five years" curve starts at about 2.3 in January 2007, and fluctuates between about 2.2 and 2.4 through late July 2007. It then begins to fluctuate more widely, between about 2.0 and 2.4, from August 2007 through mid-March 2008, when it drops briefly to about 1.8. The curve then generally increases to about 2.5 around the time of the June 2008 FOMC meeting, continues to increase to about 2.6, then generally decreases to end at about 2.1 on July 29. Note. Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields. * Adjusted for lagged indexation of TIPS. Return to text Corporate Yields, Risk Spreads, and Stock Prices Figure: Selected Stock Price Indexes A line chart shows two curves, "S&P Financial" and "S&P 500", from January 2007 through July 29, 2008 on a daily basis. Unit is an index, June 24, 2008 = 100. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire. As shown in the figure, the S&P financial curve starts at about 169 in January 2007, and fluctuates between about 159 and 173 through late July. The curve then continues to fluctuate and generally decreases to about 100 around the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends just below 100 on July 29. As shown in the figure, the S&P 500 curve starts at about 107 in January 2007, and fluctuates between about 104 and 117 through January 2008. It generally decreases just below 100 by March, generally increases to about 109 by May, and generally decreases again to about 100 around the June 2008 FOMC meeting. The curve ends at about 95 on July 29. Figure: Ratio of Trend Earnings to Price for S&P 500 and Long-Run Treasury Yield A line chart shows two series, "(Trend earnings) / P"* and "Long-run real Treasury yield" from 1985 through July 29, 2008+ on a monthly basis. Unit is percent. As shown in the figure, the "(Trend earnings) / P" curve begins at about 11 percent in 1985, fluctuates between about 6 and 10 percent between about 1986 and 1994, generally decreases to about 4 by 1999, generally increases to about 7.5 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 5.5 by the end of 2003. It fluctuates around that level through 2007, and then generally increases to end at about 8.1 on July 29, 2008. As shown in the figure, the "Long-run real Treasury yield" curve begins at about 8 percent in 1985, generally decreases to about 4 by 1986, and then fluctuates but generally decreases to about 2.5 by early 2008, and ends at about 2.9 on July 29, 2008. * Trend earnings are estimated using analysts' forecasts of year-ahead earnings from I/B/E/S. Return to text + Denotes the latest observation using daily interest rates and stock prices and latest earnings data from I/B/E/S. Return to text Figure: Implied Volatility on S&P 500 (VIX) A line chart plots the VIX from 2002 through July 29, 2008 on a weekly (Friday*) basis. Unit is percent. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire. As shown in the figure, the series begins at about 21 percent in January 2002, and fluctuates between about 17 and 22 through the first half of the year. The curve then generally increases to about 42 by mid- 2002, fluctuates more widely between about 20 and 40 through early 2003, then fluctuates less widely and generally decreases to about 10 by early 2007. It generally increases to about 15 by mid-2007, then fluctuates more widely between about 17 and 31 for the remainder of the period. The curve is about 23 around the time of the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 22 on July 29, 2008. * Latest observation is for most recent business day. Return to text Figure: Corporate Bond Yields A line chart shows two series, "10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB", from 2002 through July 29, 2008 on a daily basis. Unit is percent. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire. As shown in the figure, the "10-year high-yield" curve begins at around 11 percent at the beginning of 2002, generally increases to about 12.5 by late 2002, then generally decreases to about 8 by late 2003. It then fluctuates around that level through early 2007, generally increases to about 9.25 in mid-2007 and to about 10.5 early 2008, then generally decreases to about 10 around the time of the June 2008 FOMC meeting. It then generally increases to around 10.5 by July 29, 2008. As shown in the figure, the "10-year BBB" curve begins at around 7.5 percent at the beginning of 2002, fluctuates around that level through mid-year, and generally decreases to about 5 by mid-2003. The curve then fluctuates between about 5 and 7.25 for the remainder of the period, and ends at about 7.25 on July 29, 2008. Around the time of the June 2008 FOMC meeting, the series is close to 7 percent. Note. Yields from smoothed yield curves based on Merrill Lynch bond data. Figure: Corporate Bond Spreads A line chart shows two series, "10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB", from 2002 through July 29, 2008 on a daily basis. The "10-year high-yield" curve is plotted according to the left axis, which ranges from 0 to about 900 basis points. The "10-year BBB" curve is plotted according to the right axis, which ranges from 75 to 450 basis points. Due to the choice of ranges, the two curves appear to move roughly in parallel. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire. As shown in the figure, the "10-year high-yield" curve begins at about 550 basis points at the beginning of 2002, generally increases to about 900 later the same year, then generally decreases to about 350 by late 2003. It fluctuates around that level through mid-2007, generally increases to about 700 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 550 around the time of the June FOMC meeting. The curve ends at about 625 on July 29, 2008. As shown in the figure, the "10-year BBB " curve begins at about 200 basis points at the beginning of 2002, generally increases to about 315 later the same year, then generally decreases to about 125 by late 2003. It fluctuates between about 90 and 150 through mid-2007, generally increases to about 300 by early 2008, and generally decreases to about 270 around the time of the June FOMC meeting. The curve ends near 300 on July 29, 2008. Note. Measured relative to comparable-maturity Treasury securities. Figure: Investment-Grade CDS Indexes A line chart plots two series, Financial and Nonfinancial, from 2002 through July 29, 2008. Data are daily; unit is basis points. The two curves track fairly closely from mid-2002 through mid-2005. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire. As shown in the figure, the Financial curve starts at about 75 basis points at the beginning of 2002, and generally decreases to about 55 in early2002. It generally increases to about 115 later that same year, and generally decreases to around 35 by late 2003. The curve then fluctuates between about 20 and 50 through 2007:Q3, generally increases to about 175 by 2008:Q1, then generally decreases to about 85 by 2008:Q2. It generally increases for the remainder of the period, reaching about 115 around the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ending at about 135 on July 29, 2008. As shown in the figure, the Nonfinancial curve starts at about 95 basis points at the beginning of 2002, and generally decreases to about 75 by mid-2002. It generally increases to about 100 later that same year, and generally decreases to around 35 by late 2003. The curve then fluctuates between about 25 and 45 through 2007:Q3, generally increases to about 85 by 2008:Q1, then generally decreases to about 55 by 2008:Q2. It generally increases for the remainder of the period, reaching about 65 around the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ending at about 70 on July 29, 2008. Corporate Earnings and Credit Quality Figure: S&P 500 Earnings per Share A line chart shows two series, "All firms", and "Nonfinancials" from 1998 through 2008:Q2e . Data is a change from 4 quarters earlier; unit is percent. The "All firms" series begins at about 2 percent in 1998, increases to about 22 by mid-1999, decreases to about -25 by mid-2001 and increases to about 26 by early 2004. It then decreases to about -26 by 2007:Q4 and ends at about -18 in 2008:Q2. The "Nonfinancials" series begins at about -1 percent in 1998, increases to about 22 by mid-1999, decreases to about -26 by mid-2001 and increases to about 33 by early 2004. It then decreases to about 12 by 2007:Q4 and ends at about 8 in 2008:Q2. e Bottom-up forecasts by equity analysts for firms that have not reported. Return to text Source. For S&P 500 earnings per share, Thomson Financial. Figure: Revisions to Expected S&P 500 Earnings A line chart shows two series, "All firms", and "Nonfinancials" from 2002 through mid-July 2008. Data is monthly; unit is percent. The two series track fairly closely through 2007:Q3, and diverge at the end of the period. The "All firms" series begins at about -0.7 percent in 2002, generally decreases to about -3 by late 2002, generally increases to about 2.1 by 2004 and then generally decreases to about -2.3 percent by early 2008. The series increases to about -0.5 and then decreases to end at about -1.5 in mid-July 2008. The "Nonfinancials" series begins at about -1 percent in 2002, decreases to about -3.6 by late 2002, increases to about 2.4 by 2004 and then generally decreases to about -1.2 percent by early 2008. It then increases, and ends at about 0.7 in mid-July 2008. Note. Index is a weighted average of the percent change in the consensus forecasts of current-year and following-year EPS for a fixed sample. Figure: Financial Ratios for Nonfinancial Corporations A line chart shows two series, "Debt over total assets (right scale)", and "Liquid assets over total assets (left scale)" from 1989 through 2008:Q1p. The right scale range is between 0.20 and 0.35, and the left scale range is between 0.03 and 0.12. Unit is ratio. The "Debt over total assets" series begins at about 0.325 in mid-1989, decreases to about 0.275 in 1996, increases to about 0.305 in 1999 and then decreases to about 0.275 in 2000. It increases to about 0.30 in 2002:Q1 decreases to about 0.245 in 2005, and then increases to end at about 0.26 in 2008:Q1p . The "Liquid assets over total assets" series begins at about 0.05 in mid-1989, generally increases to about 0.105 in 2004 and then decreases to end at about 0.089 in 2008:Q1p . Note. Data are annual through 1999 and quarterly starting in 2000:Q1. p Preliminary. Return to text Source. Calculated with Compustat data. Figure: Bond Ratings Changes of Nonfinancial Companies A bar chart shows two series, "Upgrades", and "Downgrades" from 1991 through 2008:Q2. Data is annual rate; unit is percent of outstandings. The estimated figures for Upgrades/Downgrades are as follows: 1991: +12, 27. 1992: +7, 36. 1993: +9, 15. 1994: +7, 10. 1995: +20, 8. 1996: +11, 11. 1997: +9, 10. 1998: +15, 10. 1999: +13, 17. 2000: +10, 22. 2001: +6, 31. 2002: +3, 37. 2003: +4, 20. 2004: +8, 10. 2005: +9, 13. 2006: +8, 14. 2007: +10, 10. 2008 Q1: +5, 7. Q2: 4, 12. Source. Calculated with data from Moody's Investors Service. Figure: Selected Default and Delinquency Rates A line chart shows two series, "C&I loan delinquency rate (Call Report)" and "Bond default rate"*, from 1990 through June 2008. Unit is Percent of outstandings. The "C&I loan delinquency rate (Call Report)" series begins at about 5 in 1990:Q1, increases to about 6.2 in 1991, and decreases to about 1.5 in 1997 and 1998. It then increases to about 3.9 in 2002 and ends at about 1.3 in 2008:Q1. The "Bond default rate" series begins at about 1.5 in 1990Q3, increases to about 3.2 in 1991, and decreases to about 0 in 1993. It fluctuates between about 0.01 and 1.2 through 2000, increases to about 3.8 in 2002:Q4 and then decreases to end at about 0.5 in June 2008. * 6-month moving average, from Moody's Investors Service. Return to text Figure: Expected Year-Ahead Defaults A line chart shows a single series from 1993 through June 2008. Data is monthly; unit is Percent of liabilities. The series begins at about 0.6 percent in 1993, decreases to about 0.2 in 1997, increases to about 1.55 in 2002, and decreases to about 0.2 in 2007. It then increases to end at about 0.9 in June 2008. Note. Firm-level estimates of default weighted by firm liabilities as a percent of total liabilities, excluding defaulted firms. Source. Moody's KMV. Business Finance Gross Issuance of Securities by U.S. Corporations (Billions of dollars; monthly rates, not seasonally adjusted) 2007 Type of security 2004 2005 2008 2006 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 July p Nonfinancial corporations Stocks 1 5.4 4.6 4.7 5.5 5.4 2.3 4.8 4.8 Initial public offerings 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 .3 .9 .3 Seasoned offerings 3.8 2.8 2.9 3.9 3.8 2.0 3.9 4.5 Bonds 2 22.4 18.7 29.3 37.6 32.5 29.5 39.5 19.0 Investment grade 8.3 8.7 13.1 14.9 20.2 24.1 25.6 12.0 Speculative grade 8.2 5.2 6.2 11.8 3.3 1.3 4.8 3.0 Other (sold abroad/unrated) 5.9 4.8 10.1 10.9 9.0 4.1 9.0 4.0 1.7 -.2 2.4 1.1 -2.0 4.5 -5.5 6.0 2.4 9.6 11.6 14.0 28.8 16.1 9.2 6.4 6.9 5.0 5.3 9.3 7.9 13.2 21.3 1.0 134.1 170.4 180.6 200.5 102.8 54.9 77.9 15.0 Memo Net issuance of commercial paper3 Change in C&I loans at commercial banks 3,4 Financial corporations Stocks 1 Bonds 2 Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Excludes private placements and equity-for-equity swaps that occur in restructurings. Return to table 2. Data include regular and 144a private placements. Bond totals reflect gross proceeds rather than par value of original discount bonds. Bonds are categorized according to Moody's bond ratings or to Standard & Poor's if unrated by Moody's. Return to table 3. End-of-period basis, seasonally adjusted. Return to table 4. Based on adjusted commercial bank credit data through July 16. Return to table p Preliminary. Return to table Figure: Selected Components of Net Debt Financing A stacked bar chart plots three series, commercial paper*, C&I loans*, and bonds, in billions of dollars at a monthly rate, for nonfinancial firms. The total (sum) of the three series is shown as a curve superimposed on the bars. Approximate values are as follows. For commercial paper: 2003: -3. 2004: 2. 2005: -1. 2006: 4. 2007:H1: 1. 2007:H2: -2.5. 2008:Q1: 4. 2008: Q2: -5. 2008: July p : 5. For C&I loans: 2003: -8. 2004: 4. 2005: 10. 2006: 13. 2007:H1: 12. 2007:H2: 30. 2008: Q1: 15. 2008: Q2: 9. 2008: July p : 5. For bonds: 2003: 13. 2004: 6. 2005: 5. 2006: 18. 2007:H1: 28. 2007:H2: 25. 2008: Q1: 13. 2008: Q2: 27. 2008: July p : 10. Approximate totals: 2003: 2. 2004: 12. 2005: 14. 2006: 35. 2007:H1: 41. 2007:H2: 53. 2008: Q1: 33. 2008: Q2: 32. 2008: July p : 22. * Seasonally adjusted, period-end basis. Return to text p Preliminary. Return to text Figure: Components of Net Equity Issuance A stacked bar chart plots four series, public issuance, private issuance, repurchases, and cash mergers, in billions of dollars at a monthly rate, for nonfinancial firms. The total (sum) of the four series is shown as a curve superimposed on the bars. Approximate values are as follows. For public issuance: 2003: 3. 2004: 4.5. 2005: 3.5. 2006: 4. 2007:H1: 5. 2007:H2: 4. 2008:Q1p : 2 and 2008:Q2e : 5. For private issuance: 2003: 7. 2004: 7. 2005: 7.5. 2006: 10. 2007:H1: 13. 2007:H2: 17. 2008:Q1p : 15 and 2008:Q2e : 15. For repurchases: 2003: -11. 2004: -18. 2005: -28. 2006: -37. 2007:H1: -43. 2007:H2: -48. 2008:Q1p : -40 and 2008:Q2e : -30. For cash mergers: 2003: -4. 2004: -67. 2005: -14. 2006: -25. 2007:H1: -26. 2007:H2: -50. 2008:Q1p : -25 and 2008:Q2e : -19. Approximate totals: 2003: -76. 2004: -13. 2005: -31. 2006: -47. 2007:H1: -50. 2007:H2: -73. 2008:Q1p : -47 and 2008:Q2e : -29. e Staff estimate. Return to text p Preliminary. Return to text Commercial Real Estate Figure: Commercial Mortgage Debt A line chart shows commercial mortgage debt from 1996:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Data are quarterly; unit is percent change from year earlier. As shown in the figure, the series begins in 1996:Q4 slightly above 4 percent, generally increases to about 16 by 1999:Q3, and remains around 15 for the next three quarters, through 2000:Q2. It then generally decreases to a little less than 8 by 2002:Q4, generally increases back to around 16 by 2006:Q1, and generally decreases to end at about 12 in 2008:Q1. Source. Flow of funds. Figure: Sales of Commercial Real Estate A line chart shows two curves, monthly sales of commercial real estate, and the 3-month moving average. Unit is billions of dollars. As shown in the figure, the 3- month moving average series begins around March 2001 at about 6, remains at about that level through April 2002, then generally increases to about 31 by September 2006. It generally increases to about 74 by April 2007, fluctuates between about 51 and 61 through November 2007, then decreases to a preliminary estimate of about 19 by June 2008. The monthly sales curve follows the same general shape as the 3-month moving average, but with greater volatility. It begins in January 2001 at about 7, generally increases to about 43 by January 2007, increases further to about 120 by February 2007, and decreases to about 33 by March 2007. The curve fluctuates between about 30 and 80 through the end of 2007, and generally decreases to a preliminary estimate of about 18 by June 2008. Source. Real Capital Analytics. Figure: Prices A line chart shows two series, "Transacted property" and "All property", from 1988 through about 2008:Q2 on a quarterly basis. Unit is an index, 1996:Q4=100. As shown in the figure, the transacted property curve begins just below 100 in 1994:Q1, and stays at about that level through 1996:Q1. It then starts to increase to about 125 by 1997:Q4, and fluctuates around that level through about 2002:Q4. The curve generally increases to about 250 by mid-2007, and ends at about 240 in 2008:Q1. The all property curve starts at about 110 in 1988, increases to about 125 by late 1990, then generally decreases to just below 100 from 1993 through 1996. It then generally increases to about 130 from early 2001 through 2003, and generally continues to increase to just below 225 by 2008:Q2. Note. All-property index based on entire NCREIF portfolio. Transacted-property index based on sales involving NCREIF portfolio. Source. NCREIF, MIT Center for Real Estate. Figure: BBB Commercial Mortgage CDS Index Spreads (CMBX.NA) A line chart shows three series, 2006:H2*, 2006:H1*, and 2005:H2*, on a daily basis from about October 2006 through July 29, 2008. Unit is basis points. The June 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire. As shown in the figure, the three curves follow the same general shape. The 2005:H2 curve begins in October 2006 at about 50 basis points, remains at about that level through mid-February 2007, fluctuates between about 50 and 150 through July, then begins to fluctuate more widely and generally increases to almost 1200 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to just under 400 by April, generally increases to about 750 by the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 900 on July 29, 2008. The 2006:H1 curve begins in October 2006 at about 50 basis points, remains at about that level through mid-February 2007, fluctuates between about 50 and 200 through July, then begins to fluctuate more widely and generally increases to almost 1600 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 750 by April, generally increases to about 1100 by the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 1300 on July 29, 2008. The 2006:H2 curve begins in April 2007 at about 200 basis points, fluctuates between about 180 and 300 through July, then begins to fluctuate more widely and generally increases to about 2000 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 1100 by April, generally increases to almost 1500 by the June 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 1700 on July 29, 2008. Note. Measured relative to Libor. * Corresponds to pools of mortgages originated in that period. Return to text Source. JP Morgan. Figure: Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages A line chart shows two series, "At commercial banks"* and "At life insurance companies", from 1995:Q4 through 2008:Q1, and a third series, CMBS, from about January 1999 through June 2008. Unit is percent. As shown in the figure, the "At commercial banks" curve begins in 1995:Q4 at about 3.3 percent, and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2000:Q2. It increases to just below 2 by 2001:Q3, generally decreases to about 1 by 2006:Q1, then increases to end at about 3.5 by 2008:Q1. The "At life insurance companies" curve begins in 1995:Q4 at about 2.3 percent, increases to about 2.7 percent by 1996:Q2, decreases to about 0.3 by 1999:Q2, then generally continues to decrease through 2008:Q1 until it is close to zero. The CMBS curve begins in 1999 at about 0.4 percent, generally increases to nearly 2 by late 2003, generally decreases to about 0.4 by early 2007, and remains at about that level through June 2008. * Excluding farmland. Return to text Source. Citigroup, Call Report, ACLI. Figure: Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages at Banks A line chart shows three curves on a quarterly basis, "Residential construction", "Commercial construction", and "Existing properties", for 2007:Q1 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent. As shown in the figure, approximate values for each quarter are as follows: For commercial construction, 1.75, 1.8, 2.3, 3.75 and 5.5 . For residential construction, 2.6, 3.1, 4.25, 7.3 and 11. For existing properties, 1.25, 1.2, 1.25, 1.6 and 1.9. Note. Data series for residential and commercial construction begin in 2007:Q1. Existing properties include nonresidential and multifamily. Source. Call Report. Residential Mortgages Figure: Mortgage Rates and Prime Conforming Spread A line chart shows three series, "Jumbo rate (right scale)", "30-year fixed-rate spread (left scale)", and "30-year fixed-rate (right scale)" from October 2006 through July 23, 2008. The right scale ranges from 4.5 to 9.0; unit is percent. The left scale ranges from 100 to 300; unit is basis points. Data is weekly. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Jumbo rate" series begins at about 6.4 percent in October 2006, generally increases to about 7.4 by August 2007, generally decreases to about 6.5 by January 2008, and generally increases to about 7.75 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. The series continues to increases shortly after the meeting and ends at about 8.25 on July 23, 2008. The "30-year fixed-rate spread" series begins at about 173 basis points in October 2006, generally decreases to about 140 in January 2007, and generally increases to about 263 in March 2008. The series generally decreases to about 205 in early June 2008, and increases to about 230 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then increases and ends at about 248 on July 23, 2008. The "30-year fixed-rate" series begins at about 6.25 percent in October 2006, fluctuates between about 6.2 and 6.4 through May 2007, and increases to about 6.75 in June 2007. The series generally decreases to about 5.5 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 6.4 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then decreases to about 6.25 in July and ends at about 6.6 on July 23, 2008. Note. FRM spread relative to 10-year Treasury. Source. Freddie Mac, Inside Mortgage Finance. Figure: Delinquencies on Mortgages A line chart shows two series, "Subprime (left scale)", and "Prime (right scale)" from 2001 through May 2008. The left scale ranges from 4 to 20 and the right scale ranges from 0.0 to 3.0. Data is monthly, unit is percent of loans. The Subprime series begins at about 7.9 percent in 2001, generally increases to about 9 in 2002, then generally decreases to about 5 in 2005, and generally increases to end at about 2.7 in May 2008. The Prime series begins at about 1.05 percent in 2001, generally increases to about 1.25 in 2002, then generally decreases to about 0.8 in 2005, and generally increases to end at about 1.6 in May 2008. Note. Percent of loans 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure. Prime includes near-prime mortgages. Source. First American LoanPerformance. Figure: House Prices A line chart shows "OFHEO purchase-only index" for two series, "Quarterly", and "Monthly" from 1996 through May 2008. Data is Annual rate, s.a. Unit is percent change. The "Quarterly" series begins at about 2.5 percent in 1996, generally increases to about 10 in 2004 and 2005, and generally decreases to about -7.5 in 2008:Q1. The "Monthly" series begins at about 5 in 1996, with some volatility, generally increases to about 12.5 in 2000 and 2005, then generally decreases to end at about -4 in May 2008. Source. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Figure: Subprime Mortgage AAA CDS Index Prices A line chart shows a single series, "ABX.HE", from July 2006 through July 29, 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The "ABX.HE" series begins at about 100 percent in July 2006, stays about the same through June 2007, and generally decreases to about 66 in February 2008. It then generally increases to about 84 in April 2008, generally decreases to about 61 in late June, and increases to end at about 66 on July 29, 2008. Note. The index corresponds to pools of mortgages securitized in 2006:H1. Source. JP Morgan. Figure: Agency and Non-agency MBS Issuance A stacked bar chart shows three series, "GSEs", "Ginnie Mae", and "Non-agency" from 2001 through 2008: Q1, Q2* and July**. Data is monthly rate; unit is billions of dollars. The estimated values for GSEs, Ginnie Mae, and Non-agency are as follows: 2001: 80/15/15. 2002: 105/10/25. 2003: 160/15/40. 2004: 75/10/60. 2005: 70/5/90. 2006: 70/10/80. 2007:H1: 75/10/95. 2007:H2: 85/10/25. 2008:Q1: 85/10/0. 2008:Q2: 100/20/0. July 2008: 70/25/0. * Estimate based on Inside Mortgage Finance MBS database. Return to text ** GSEs from Inside Mortgage Finance as of July 25, and Ginnie Mae from Bloomberg as of July 28, both at monthly rate. Return to text Source. For agency issuance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. For non-agency issuance, Inside MortgageFinance MBS database. Figure: Mortgage Debt A line chart shows a single series, from 2001 through 2008. Data is quarterly; unit is percent change from year earlier. The series begins at about 9.3 in 2001, generally increases to about 14.4 in 2004, and then generally decreases to end at about 5.2 in 2008:Q1. Source. Flow of funds. Consumer Credit and Household Wealth Figure: Delinquencies on Consumer Loans A line chart shows three series, "Credit card loans in securitized pools", "Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks", and "Auto loans at captive finance companies" from 1997 through May 2008. Unit is percent. The "Credit card loans in securitized pools" series begins at about 5.3 percent in 1997, decreases to about 4.4 in early 2000, increases to about 5.4 in 2003 and generally decreases to about 3.3 in late 2005. It then increases to end at about 4.5 in May 2008. The "Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks" series begins at about 3.2 percent in 1997, increases to about 3.3 in early 1999, decreases to about 2.1 in late 2005 and increases to end at about 2.7 in 2008:Q1. The "Auto loans at captive finance companies" series begins at about 3.5 percent in 1997, decreases to about 2 in early 2000, fluctuates between about 2 and 2.3 through 2007 and then increases to end at about 2.5 in May 2008. Source. For credit cards, Moody's; for auto loans, Federal Reserve. Figure: Consumer Credit A line chart shows a single series, from 1999 through May 2008. Data is a 3-month percent change, annual rate; unit is percent change. The series begins at about 8.5 percent in 1999, generally decreases to about 6.2 in late 1999, and generally increases to about 15.5 in mid-2000. It generally decreases to about 2 in 2006, generally increases to about 8.2 in 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 4.5 in May 2008. Figure: Gross Issuance of Consumer ABS by Type A bar chart shows three series, "Auto", "Credit card", and "Student loans" from 2005 through 2008: Q1, Q2, and July*. Data is monthly rate; unit is billions of dollars. The estimated values for Student loans, credit card and auto are as follows: 2005: 7, 5 and 6. 2006: 6.5, 5, and 6. 2007:H1: 6, 8 and 7. 2007:H2: 6, 8 and 3. 2008:Q1: 3, 10 and 3. 2008:Q2: 7, 7 and 5. July 2008: 2, 4.5, and 0.5. Note. Auto includes car loans, leases, and financing for buyers of motorcycles, trucks, and other vehicles. * Through July 25. Return to text Source. Inside Mortgage Finance MBS database, Merrill Lynch. Figure: AAA ABS Spreads over Swaps A line chart shows three series, "3-year FFELP student loan", "2-year credit card", and "2-year auto", from June 2007 through July 25, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is basis points. The "3-year FFELP student loan" series begins at about 0 in June 2007, generally increases to about 105 in April 2008, generally decreases to about 45 in June 2008 and increases to end at about 90 on July 25, 2008. The "2-year credit card" series begins at about 0 in June 2007, generally increases to about 110 in April 2008, generally decreases to about 45 in June 2008 and increases to end at about 75 on July 25, 2008. The "2-year auto" series begins at about 0 in June 2007, generally increases to about 150 in April 2008, generally decreases to about 75 in June 2008 and increases to end at about 135 on July 25, 2008. Source. For credit cards and auto, Citigroup Global Markets; for student loans, Merrill Lynch. Net Flows into Mutual Funds (Billions of dollars, monthly rate) 2007 Fund type H1 Total long-term funds Equity funds 2008 2006 H2 Q1 Assets Q2 e May 18.9 31.6 5.8 1.7 21.2 8,814 13.3 14.4 1.2 -14.9 6.4 6,344 Domestic 0.9 0.9 -8.4 -13.4 1.7 4,704 International 12.4 13.5 9.6 -1.5 4.7 1,639 Hybrid funds 0.6 2.6 1.1 0.7 1.9 710 Bond funds 5.0 14.6 3.5 16.0 12.9 1,761 High-yield -0.2 0.2 -0.7 -1.3 1.1 155 4.0 12.0 4.8 15.2 8.1 1,219 Other taxable Municipals Money market funds 1.3 2.4 -0.6 2.1 3.7 387 27.8 26.3 98.8 119.6 -15.9 3,509 Note. Excludes reinvested dividends. e Staff estimate based on confidential weekly data. Return to table Source. Investment Company Institute. Treasury Finance Figure: Foreign Participation in Treasury Auctions A line chart shows two series, "Indirect bids", and "Actual foreign allotment" from 2000 through July 31, 2008. Data is a 6-month moving average; unit is percent of total issue. The "Indirect bids" series begins at about 22 percent in late 2003, increases to about 32 by late 2004, fluctuates between about 25 and 34, and decreases to end at about 25 July 31, 2008. The "Actual foreign allotment" series begins at about 10 percent in 2000, fluctuates and increases to about 25 in 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 15 on June 30, 2008. Note. Indirect bids and actual allotment are a percentage of the total amount accepted, including the amount tendered to the Federal Reserve. Moving averages include 2-, 5-, and 10- year original auctions and reopenings. Figure: Foreign Custody Holdings A line chart shows two series, "Treasury", and "Agency" from 2003 through July 23, 2008. Data is weekly average; unit is billions of dollars. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Treasury" series begins at about $700 billion at the beginning of 2003 and generally increases to about 1375 around the time of the June 2008, FOMC meeting and ends at about 1375 on July 23, 2008. The "Agency" series begins at about $100 billion at the beginning of 2003 and generally increases to about 975 around the time of the June 2008, FOMC meeting and ends at about 1000 on July 23, 2008. Note. Securities held in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on behalf of foreign official institutions. Figure: Securities Lending A line chart shows a single series from 2003 through July 23, 2008. Data is weekly (Wed.) average; unit is billions of dollars. The series begins at about $1.5 billion at the beginning of 2003, fluctuates between about 0 and 6 through 2006, increases to about 22 in 2008 and ends at about 5 on July 23, 2008. Note. Volume of securities lent to market participants from the System Open Market Account portfolio through the overnight facility. Figure: Treasury Bid-Ask Spread A line chart shows "2-year on-the-run Treasury notes" from February 2006 through July 29, 2008. Data is a 5-day moving average; unit is cents per $100 face value. The June 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "2-year on-the-run Treasury notes" series begins at about 0.80 cents per $100 face value, in February 2006, fluctuates between about 0.82 and 0.875 through August 2007, and increases to about 1.08 in December 2007. The series decreases to about 0.875 in February 2008, increases to about 1.25 in March 2008, and generally decreases to about 0.92 around the time of June 2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally increases to end at about 0.88 on July 29, 2008. Source. BrokerTec Interdealer Market Data. Figure: Average Absolute Nominal Yield Curve Fitting Error A line chart shows a single series, from 2001 through July 29, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The series begins at about 3 basis points in 2001, increases to about 13 in late 2001 and decreases to generally fluctuate between 1 and 4 through 2007. It then generally increases to about 8.5 in 2008 and ends at about 6 on July 29, 2008. Note. Calculated from securities with 2 to 10 years until maturity, excluding on-the-run and first off-the-run securities. Figure: Treasury On-the-Run Premiums A line chart shows two series, "10-year", and "2-year" from 2001 through July 2008. Data is monthly average; unit is basis points. The "10-year" series begins at about 15 basis points in early 2001, increases to about 27 in 2002, generally decreases to about 5 in 2007 and then ends at about 21 in July 2008. The "2-year" series begins at about 7.5 in 2001, generally decreases to about -2.5 in 2002, fluctuates between about -4 and 5 throughout the period and then increases to end at about 7 in July 2008. Note. Computed as the spread of the yield read from an estimated off-the-run yield curve over the on-the-run Treasury yield. July observation is the month to date average. State and Local Government Finance Gross Offerings of Municipal Securities (Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted) 2007 Type of security 2004 2005 2008 2006 H1 Total H2 Q1 Q2 July p 34.7 1 38.4 36.1 41.8 38.9 29.1 52.9 40.5 29.8 34.2 32.5 38.5 32.6 27.6 47.4 34.0 Refundings2 10.8 15.6 10.6 16.5 8.7 11.0 24.5 16.0 New capital 19.0 18.6 21.9 22.0 23.9 16.6 22.9 18.0 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.4 6.3 1.5 5.5 6.5 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.6 1.8 3.1 1.0 Long-term Short-term Memo: Long-term taxable 1. Includes issues for public and private purposes. Return to table 2. All issues that include any refunding bonds. Return to table p Based on preliminary data through July 24, 2008. Return to table Figure: Ratings Changes A bar graph shows two series, Upgrades and Downgrades, at an annual rate from 1989 through 2006, 2007:H1, 2007:H2, 2008:Q1, Q2, and July*. Unit is number of ratings changes. Upgrades are plotted within a range of 0 to 3000. Downgrades are plotted within a range of 0 to 5000. The estimated figures for upgrades/downgrades are as follows: 1989: 150/150. 1990: 100/500. 1991: 100/600. 1992: 500/550. 1993: 300/300. 1994: 350/400. 1995: 375/350. 1996: 700/200. 1997: 800/100. 1998: 650/100. 1999: 1050/400. 2000: 1200/450. 2001: 1100/700. 2002: 600/1600. 2003: 650/1000. 2004: 1000/600. 2005: 1100/900. 2006: 1800/300. 2007:H1: 1900/800. 2007:H2: 1800/1300. 2008, Q1: 400/800. 2008, Q2: 2000/600. 2008, July*: 1700/4000. * Staff estimate based on data through July 16, 2008. Return to text Source. S&P's Credit Week Municipal and Ratings Direct. Figure: Municipal Bond Yields A line chart shows general obligation as two series, "20-year", and "1-year" from 1994 through July 25, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is percent. The 20-year series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1994 increases to about 7 in late 1994, decreases to about 5 in 1998 and increases to about 6 in 2000. It then generally decreases to about 4.1 in March 2008, and ends at about 4.6 on July 24, 2008. The 1-year series begins at about 3.5 percent in 1999, increases to about 4.5 in mid-2000, decreases to about 1 in mid-2003 and increases to about 3.75 in mid2006. It then decreases to end at about 2.1 on July 25, 2008. Source. Municipal Market Advisors and Bond Buyer. Figure: Municipal Bond Yield Ratio A line chart shows "General Obligation over Treasury" as a single series "20-year", from 1994 through July 24, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is ratio. The "20-year" series begins at about 0.83 in 1994, fluctuates and increases to about 0.98 in late 2001, decreases to about 0.85 in early 2007 and then increases to about 1.15 in March 2008, and then decreases to end at about 1.0 on July 24, 2008. Source. Bond Buyer. M2 Monetary Aggregate (Based on seasonally adjusted data) Percent change (annual rate) 1 Aggregate and components 2008 2006 2007 Q1 M2 Q2 June July (e) Level (billions of dollars), July (e) 4.9 5.8 9.5 5.7 -.2 7.5 7,735 3.5 2.0 -.5 2.4 10.2 9.2 775 .7 4.5 7.0 7.5 3.0 7.5 4,692 Small time deposits 18.6 4.3 2.4 -6.2 -3.6 7.5 1,207 Retail money market funds 13.0 19.2 38.9 14.6 -17.2 6.2 1,056 15.7 39.4 46.8 33.1 13.9 -.6 2,246 3.1 2.0 -.4 2.0 8.9 7.6 838 Components 2 Currency Liquid deposits3 Memo: Institutional money market funds Monetary base 1. For years, Q4 to Q4; for quarters and months, calculated from corresponding average levels. Return to table 2. Nonbank traveler's checks are not listed. Return to table 3. Sum of demand deposits, other checkable deposits, and savings deposits. Return to table e Estimated. Return to table Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted) Type of credit 2007 Total H2 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 June 2008 July 2008e Level1 July 2008e 10.6 11.3 6.2 3.3 -.2 2.7 9,023 11.4 11.5 9.5 4.4 -3.2 1.8 6,823 Commercial and industrial 19.6 26.1 15.6 12.0 5.7 7.9 1,510 Commercial real estate 10.2 10.2 9.8 10.3 11.9 -10.4 1,649 5.8 -1.1 3.4 3.3 -16.2 -6.3 1,841 5.7 6.5 11.5 16.1 14.7 10.3 518 Loans2 Total To businesses To households Residential real estate Revolving home equity Other 5.9 -3.6 .7 -1.3 -27.7 -12.7 1,323 Consumer 7.9 10.8 8.8 6.0 6.8 9.4 835 7.2 9.4 8.7 6.9 6.6 4.4 1,249 16.7 19.9 12.2 -14.9 -25.6 22.2 988 8.1 10.7 -3.5 .0 9.4 5.6 2,200 -5.7 -4.4 -10.5 8.3 26.2 5.0 1,137 27.6 29.1 3.7 -8.4 -8.1 6.4 1,063 Originated 3 Other 4 Securities Total Treasury and agency Other 5 Note. Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FAS 115), the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46), the initial adoption of fair value accounting (FAS 159), and the effects of sizable thrift-to-bank and bank-to-thrift structure activity in October 2006, March 2007, and October 2007. Data also account for breaks caused by reclassifications. 1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Return to table 2. Excludes interbank loans. Return to table 3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. Return to table 4. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. Return to table 5. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or agency securities. Return to table e Estimated. Return to table Appendix: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices Measures of Supply and Demand for C&I Loans, by Size of Firm Seeking Loan Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards for C&I Loans A line chart shows two series, "Loans to large and medium sized firms", and "Loans to small firms", from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 2008, survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The 2008: H2 through 2009: H2 projections are indicated by dots in a shaded gray area. The "Loans to large and medium sized firms" series begins at about 56 in 1990:Q2, it generally decreases to about -20 in 1993:Q3, then generally increases to about 60 in 2001:Q1 and generally decreases to about -25 by 2005:Q2. It generally increases to about 57 around the time of April 2008 survey, and increases to end at about 58 in 2008:Q3. The "Loans to small firms" series begins at about 52 in 1990:Q2, it generally decreases to about -12 by 1994:Q1, then generally increases to about 44 in 2001:Q1 and generally decreases to about -22 in 2005:Q2. It generally increases to about 57 around the time of April 2008 survey, and increases to end at about 65 in 2008:Q3. The projected values are about: 55 in 2009 (beginning of Q1) and 45 in 2009 (end of Q2). Note. Projections based on responses to questions on the outlook for credit standards in the July 2008 survey. Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Increasing Spreads of Loan Rates over Banks' Costs of Funds A line chart shows two series, "Loans to large and medium sized firms", and "Loans to small firms", from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 2008 survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Loans to large and medium sized firms" series begins at about 10 in 1990:Q2, increases to about 60 in 1991:Q1, generally decreases to about -60 in 1994:Q2, and generally increases to about 60 in 2001:Q4. The series generally decreases to about -70 in 2005:Q2, generally increases to about 70 around the time of April 2008 survey, and then continues to increase and ends at about 80 in 2008:Q3. The "Loans to small firms" series begins at about 5 in 1990:Q2, increases to about 39 in 1991:Q1, generally decreases to about 40 in 1997:Q4, and generally increases to about 40 in 2001:Q4. The series generally decreases to about -55 in 2005:Q2, generally increases to about 60 around the time of April 2008 survey, and continues to increase and ends at about 70 in 2008:Q3. Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Reporting Stronger Demand for C&I Loans A line chart shows two series, "Loans to large and medium sized firms", and "Loans to small firms", from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 2008 survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "Loans to large and medium sized firms" series begins at about-30 in 1991:Q4, it generally increases to about 39 in 1994:Q2, and generally decreases to about -70 in 2001:Q4. The series generally increases to about 45 in 2005:Q1, then generally decreases to about -22 in 2007:Q2 and increases to about 0 around the time of April 2008 survey. It then decreases and ends at about -1 in 2008:Q3. The "Loans to small firms" series begins at about-30 in 1991:Q4, it generally increases to about 39 in 1994:Q2, and generally decreases to about -50 in 2001:Q4. The series generally increases to about 40 in 2004:Q3, then generally decreases to about -18 around the time of April 2008 survey. It then increases and ends at about -13 in 2008:Q3. Measures of Supply and Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans A line chart shows a single series from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 2008 survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The 2008: H2 through 2009:H2 projections are indicated by dots in a shaded gray area. The series begins at about 70 in 1990:Q3, it generally decreases to about -8 in 1994:Q2, increases to about 12 in 1996:Q1, and decreases to about -12 in 1997:Q3. The series generally increases to about 45 in 1998:Q4, and 2002:Q1, and generally decreases to about -23 in 2005:Q1. It generally increases to about 79 around the time of April 2008 survey, and ends at about 77 in 2008:Q3. The projected values are about: 70 in 2009: beginning of Q1 and 50 in 2009: end of Q2. Note. Projections based on responses to questions on the outlook for credit standards in the July 2008 survey. Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans A line chart shows a single series from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 2008 survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The series begins at about 12 in 1995:Q2, fluctuates between about -1 and 48 through 1998, generally decreases to about -50 in 2001:Q4, generally increases to about 25 in 2004:Q3, and generally decreases to about -48 in 2008:Q1. It generally increases to about -38, around the time of April 2008 survey and then increases to end at about -30 in 2008:Q3. Measures of Supply and Demand for Residential Mortgage Loans Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards for Residential Mortgage Loans A line chart shows a single series "All residential", from 1990 through 2006. It splits into three series "Prime", "Nontraditional"*, and "Subprime"*, from 2007:Q2 through 2009:Q4. Unit is percent. The 2008: H2 through 2009:H2 projections are indicated by dots in a shaded gray area. The "All residential" series begins at about 8 in 1990:Q3, increases to about 31 in 1991:Q1, generally decreases to about -15 in 1993:Q4, and fluctuates between about -10 and 10 through 2006:Q3. The series then increases to end at about 16 in 2007:Q1. The "Prime" series begins at about 16 in 2007:Q2, and generally increases to about 71 in 2008:Q3. The "Nontraditional" series begins at about 45 in 2007:Q2, and generally increases to about 83 in 2008:Q3. The "Subprime" series begins at about 56 in 2007:Q2, and generally increases to about 83 in 2008:Q3. The approximate projected values are as follows: Prime series: about 42 in 2009: beginning of Q1 and decreases to about 25 in 2009: end of Q2. Nontraditional and Subprime: about 61 in 2009: Beginning of Q1 and decreases to about 45 in 2009: end of Q2. Note. For data starting in 2007:Q2, changes in standards for prime, nontraditional, and subprime mortgage loans are reported separately. Projections based on responses to questions on the outlook for credit standards in the July 2008 survey. * The forward-looking questions asked about nontraditional and subprime mortgage loans combined. Return to text Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Reporting Stronger Demand for Residential Mortgage Loans A line chart shows a single series, "All residential", from 1990 through 2006. It splits into three series "Prime", "Nontraditional", and "Subprime", from 2007:Q2 through 2009:Q4. Unit is percent. The "All residential" series begins at about -50 percent in 1990:Q4, increases to about 60 in 1991:Q2, and fluctuates between about -77 and 63 through mid-2005. It then generally decreases to about 60 in 2006:Q4, and increases to end at about -38 in 2007:Q1. The "Prime" series begins at about -19 in 2007:Q2, increases to about -10 in 2007:Q3, decreases to about -60 in 2008:Q1, increases to about -25 in 2008:Q2, and decreases to end at about -35 in 2008:Q3. The "Nontraditional" series begins at about -16 in 2007:Q2, and generally decreases to about -70 in 2008:Q1, increases to about -30 in 2008:Q2, and decreases to end at about -45 in 2008:Q3. The "Subprime" series begins at about -19 in 2007:Q2, decreases to about -71 in 2008:Q1, and generally increases to end at about -30 in 2008:Q3. Note. For data starting in 2007:Q2, changes in demand for prime, nontraditional, and subprime mortgage loans are reported separately. Measures of Supply and Demand for Consumer Loans Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards for Consumer Loans A line chart shows two series, "Credit card loans", and "Other consumer loans", from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 208 survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The 2008: H2 through 2009:H2 projections are indicated by dots in a shaded gray area. The "Credit card loans" series begins at about 25 in 1996:Q1, it generally increases to about 49 in 1996:Q3, and generally decreases to about -1 in 2000:Q3. It generally increases to about 20 in 2001:Q2, and Q4, then generally decreases to about -11 in 2007:Q2. The series increases to about 30 around the time of April 2008 survey and continues to increase to end at about 67 in 2008:Q3. The "Other consumer loans" series begins at about 15 in 1996:Q1, it generally increases to about 23 in 1996:Q3, and generally decreases to about -1 in 1999:Q1. It generally increases to about 20 in 2002:Q2, then generally decreases to about -10 in 2005:Q2. The series generally increases to about 45 around the time of April 2008 survey and continues to increase to end at about 67 in 2008:Q3. The approximate projected values are as follows: Credit card loans: about 60 in 2009: beginning of Q1 and decreases to about 32 in 2009: end of Q2. Nontraditional and Subprime: about 50 in 2009: Beginning of Q1 and decreases to about 28 in 2009: end of Q2. Note. Projections based on responses to questions on the outlook for credit standards in the July 2008 survey. Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Reporting Increased Willingness to Make Consumer Installment Loans A line chart shows a single series, from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 2008 survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The series begins at about 5 in 1990:Q1, increases to about 10 in 1990:Q3, decreases to about -15 in 1991:Q1, generally increases to about 33 in 1994:Q1, and generally decreases to about -5 in 1996:Q3. It generally increases to about 15 in 1999:Q2, then generally decreases to about -8 in 2001:Q4, and generally increases to about 23 in 2005:Q3. The series generally decreases to about -24 around the time of April 2008 survey, and ends at about -35 in 2008:Q3. Figure: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Reporting Stronger Demand for Consumer Loans A line chart shows a single series, from 1990 through 2009. Unit is percent. The April 2008 survey is marked with a vertical tripwire. The series begins at about -30 in 1991:Q4, generally increases to about -38 in 1994:Q2, then generally decreases to about -36 in 2001:Q1. It generally increases to about 31 in 2003:Q3, generally decreases to about -42 in 2006:Q4, generally increases to about -20 around the time of April 2008 survey, and then decreases to end at about -30 in 2008:Q3. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts† International Developments Trade in Goods and Services Annual rate 2007 2007 Q4 Monthly rate 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 e Mar. Apr. May Percent change Nominal BOP Exports 14.5 10.4 18.4 15.1 -1.9 3.7 .9 Imports 9.7 11.4 13.8 14.6 -3.3 4.6 .3 Exports 8.4 6.5 5.4 n.a. … … … Imports 1.0 -1.4 -.7 n.a. … … … -700.3 -695.1 -699.7 -721.7 -56.5 -60.5 -59.8 -819.4 -835.7 -844.1 -872.6 -68.4 -73.0 -72.5 11.9 12.5 12.7 Real NIPA Billions of dollars Nominal BOP Net exports Goods, net Services, net 119.1 140.5 144.5 150.8 e. BOP data are two months at an annual rate. Return to table Source. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureaus of Economic Analysis and Census. n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. U.S. International Trade In Goods and Services (Quarterly) Figure: Trade Balance Period Billions of dollars, a.r. 1999:Q1 -214.37 1999:Q2 -253.70 1999:Q3 -285.91 1999:Q4 -305.80 2000:Q1 -359.85 2000:Q2 -363.60 2000:Q3 -388.54 2000:Q4 -406.98 2001:Q1 -392.27 2001:Q2 -356.45 2001:Q3 -360.52 2001:Q4 -352.05 2002:Q1 -374.18 2002:Q2 -415.79 2002:Q3 -431.61 2002:Q4 -472.60 2003:Q1 -499.35 2003:Q2 -494.75 2003:Q3 -493.33 2003:Q4 -501.14 2004:Q1 -540.89 2004:Q2 -598.85 2004:Q3 -621.54 2004:Q4 -669.38 2005:Q1 -663.10 2005:Q2 -682.80 2005:Q3 -720.75 2005:Q4 -778.16 2006:Q1 -756.64 2006:Q2 -767.52 2006:Q3 -790.15 2006:Q4 -699.72 2007:Q1 -718.59 2007:Q2 -715.25 2007:Q3 -672.53 2007:Q4 -694.87 2008:Q1 -699.08 2008:Q2 -721.66 Figure: Contribution of Net Exports to Real GDP Growth Period Percentage points, a.r. 1999:Q1 -1.67 1999:Q2 -1.35 1999:Q3 -0.75 1999:Q4 0.01 2000:Q1 -1.53 2000:Q2 -0.98 2000:Q3 -0.87 2000:Q4 -0.07 2001:Q1 -0.04 2001:Q2 0.49 2001:Q3 -0.56 2001:Q4 -0.66 2002:Q1 -0.97 2002:Q2 -0.62 2002:Q3 -0.49 2002:Q4 -1.52 2003:Q1 0.21 2003:Q2 -0.73 2003:Q3 0.51 2003:Q4 -0.47 2004:Q1 -0.75 2004:Q2 -1.50 2004:Q3 -0.42 2004:Q4 -1.07 2005:Q1 0.26 2005:Q2 0.83 2005:Q3 -0.10 2005:Q4 -1.41 2006:Q1 0.13 2006:Q2 0.49 2006:Q3 -0.25 2006:Q4 1.25 2007:Q1 -0.51 2007:Q2 1.32 2007:Q3 1.38 2007:Q4 1.02 2008:Q1 0.79 Figure: Selected Exports Billions of dollars, a.r. Period 1999:Q1 Aircraft Consumer goods Industrial supplies Capital goods ex. aircraft 56.75 78.76 127.09 245.36 1999:Q2 49.91 79.41 130.95 251.10 1999:Q3 52.49 81.01 135.15 262.71 1999:Q4 52.66 84.46 146.67 272.41 2000:Q1 43.99 87.61 151.80 285.57 2000:Q2 51.75 88.73 154.67 304.40 2000:Q3 48.69 91.55 162.62 325.50 2000:Q4 47.96 89.55 162.18 319.91 2001:Q1 56.10 92.64 156.31 307.84 2001:Q2 54.89 91.56 148.25 277.00 2001:Q3 50.95 85.15 141.09 251.25 2001:Q4 48.31 84.03 136.34 240.49 2002:Q1 49.56 82.59 135.34 235.71 2002:Q2 50.43 84.31 145.35 243.03 2002:Q3 53.68 85.54 147.53 243.47 2002:Q4 48.11 84.95 148.76 237.75 2003:Q1 45.71 86.93 157.86 236.88 2003:Q2 43.54 87.79 155.39 239.60 2003:Q3 45.66 91.05 155.15 247.42 2003:Q4 51.60 93.88 162.37 263.81 2004:Q1 49.10 97.69 175.26 274.07 2004:Q2 47.76 102.66 184.22 281.86 2004:Q3 51.12 104.22 190.43 283.62 2004:Q4 51.96 108.39 201.30 286.36 2005:Q1 54.61 111.56 209.25 290.33 2005:Q2 64.82 114.17 219.83 298.15 2005:Q3 58.81 115.99 216.19 303.76 2005:Q4 65.05 119.38 218.29 317.91 2006:Q1 72.40 123.47 235.60 328.55 2006:Q2 72.70 127.01 254.25 339.18 2006:Q3 73.18 130.68 261.60 342.64 2006:Q4 82.17 135.19 266.14 348.88 2007:Q1 81.17 140.92 267.44 348.98 2007:Q2 80.36 143.46 282.69 352.98 2007:Q3 91.47 149.59 295.17 366.24 2007:Q4 96.29 150.54 310.40 372.59 2008:Q1 91.13 156.85 332.39 374.90 2008:Q2 91.38 161.17 362.39 386.09 Figure: Selected Imports Billions of dollars, a.r. Period Oil Industrial supplies Consumer goods Capital goods 1999:Q1 42.21 140.96 229.77 278.81 1999:Q2 63.80 145.79 234.39 291.60 1999:Q3 79.56 153.15 246.43 300.83 1999:Q4 85.73 162.22 256.78 311.50 2000:Q1 107.78 168.43 266.57 320.46 2000:Q2 117.88 173.09 279.78 346.19 2000:Q3 127.99 179.81 286.81 362.05 2000:Q4 127.35 182.82 294.15 359.33 2001:Q1 125.26 189.64 291.95 339.57 2001:Q2 108.55 170.98 286.39 299.80 2001:Q3 97.14 160.40 282.19 280.07 2001:Q4 83.36 152.03 277.03 272.76 2002:Q1 81.57 151.42 287.10 277.53 2002:Q2 104.06 160.33 305.80 285.46 2002:Q3 106.87 164.33 317.60 285.35 2002:Q4 121.69 170.70 320.53 284.85 2003:Q1 142.13 174.38 326.24 285.88 2003:Q2 125.86 174.40 327.78 292.06 2003:Q3 131.23 180.71 333.74 294.03 2003:Q4 133.13 181.82 347.83 311.57 2004:Q1 160.79 199.50 355.69 324.33 2004:Q2 166.50 224.93 376.34 340.41 2004:Q3 177.91 240.23 372.21 349.84 2004:Q4 216.38 248.51 387.63 359.78 2005:Q1 214.05 255.78 403.85 363.30 2005:Q2 229.98 257.77 409.29 381.21 2005:Q3 266.51 259.93 404.57 381.52 2005:Q4 296.38 296.33 410.64 391.26 2006:Q1 292.81 288.60 425.15 404.26 2006:Q2 313.87 291.75 435.74 415.41 2006:Q3 333.35 303.59 448.49 426.26 2006:Q4 269.73 291.83 461.35 427.47 2007:Q1 284.09 289.01 476.06 435.43 2007:Q2 312.57 304.93 472.65 439.71 2007:Q3 332.02 305.09 470.64 449.62 2007:Q4 396.00 297.44 480.02 453.06 2008:Q1 448.56 303.39 477.92 454.29 2008:Q2 470.53 330.99 491.61 473.72 U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (Billions of dollars, a.r., BOP basis) Change 1 Levels 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 e Apr. 2008 May Exports of G&S 1817.1 1882.2 1873.9 1890.6 Goods exports 1271.3 1325.4 1320.7 1330.0 Gold Other goods Capital goods Q1 2008 Q2 e Apr. 75.2 65.1 66.9 May 16.7 58.5 54.1 60.4 9.3 19.3 12.6 -2.7 -4.8 -5.4 1246.6 1303.4 1296.1 1310.8 45.9 56.8 65.2 14.7 11.4 27.4 -7.6 24.6 21.9 24.6 466.2 477.5 481.3 473.7 -2.7 Aircraft & parts 91.3 91.4 91.2 91.6 -5.0 .1 11.0 .4 Computers & accessories 43.2 47.4 47.7 47.1 -1.3 4.2 4.6 -.6 Semiconductors 52.3 50.3 50.3 50.3 -.9 -2.0 -.9 .0 279.3 288.5 292.2 284.8 4.5 9.2 12.6 -7.5 122.4 121.6 120.4 122.8 -3.4 -.8 7.1 2.4 Other capital goods Automotive Ind. supplies (ex. ag., gold) 332.5 362.2 351.7 372.7 22.1 29.7 18.3 21.0 Consumer goods 156.9 161.2 161.1 161.2 6.4 4.2 10.1 .1 Agricultural 117.8 127.2 128.8 125.5 15.0 9.3 4.7 -3.3 50.8 53.8 52.8 54.8 8.4 3.0 16.6 2.0 545.8 556.9 553.2 560.6 16.7 11.0 6.6 7.4 Imports of G&S 2516.8 2604.0 2599.8 2608.1 79.8 87.2 115.0 8.2 Goods imports 2115.4 2197.9 2196.1 2199.7 All other goods Services exports Gold Other goods Capital goods Aircraft & parts Computers & accessories Semiconductors Other capital goods 67.0 82.5 114.9 3.6 448.7 Oil 470.6 474.5 466.6 52.6 21.9 54.2 -7.9 17.9 14.3 18.8 9.8 10.9 -3.6 -2.6 -9.0 1648.8 1713.0 1702.8 1723.3 3.6 64.2 63.3 20.6 454.4 473.6 469.3 478.0 1.3 19.2 14.8 8.6 37.0 37.5 39.2 35.8 1.9 .5 1.1 -3.4 104.2 110.9 108.1 113.7 -1.2 6.7 .4 5.6 26.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 -.7 1.1 1.1 -.0 286.9 297.8 294.6 301.0 1.4 10.9 12.2 6.5 Automotive 257.3 252.6 257.7 247.6 -2.7 -4.6 14.1 -10.1 Ind. supplies (ex. oil, gold) 303.6 331.0 328.9 333.0 6.1 27.4 19.3 4.1 Consumer goods 478.2 491.5 482.3 500.6 -1.9 13.2 8.0 18.2 Foods, feeds, bev. 85.4 90.1 88.5 91.7 1.7 4.7 3.5 3.2 All other goods 69.9 74.2 75.9 72.5 -1.1 4.3 3.6 -3.5 Services imports 401.4 406.0 403.7 408.3 12.8 4.7 .1 4.6 Oil quantity (mb/d) 14.06 12.47 13.14 11.79 .59 -1.60 .57 -1.35 Oil import price ($/bbl) 87.59 103.62 98.89 108.34 7.17 16.07 7.32 9.45 Memo: 1. Change from previous quarter or month. Return to table e. Average of two months. Return to table Source. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureaus of Economic Analysis and Census. Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports Figure: Merchandise Imports 12-month percent change Period Core goods Non-oil goods January 1999 -1.71 -2.64 February 1999 -1.48 -2.26 March 1999 -1.49 -2.37 April 1999 -1.39 -2.27 May 1999 -1.08 -1.88 June 1999 -0.91 -1.69 July 1999 -0.56 -1.40 August 1999 -0.13 -0.90 September 1999 0.18 -0.50 October 1999 0.03 -0.50 November 1999 0.22 -0.20 December 1999 0.57 0.00 January 2000 0.54 -0.10 February 2000 0.85 0.30 March 2000 1.40 1.01 April 2000 1.61 1.32 May 2000 1.28 0.91 June 2000 1.22 1.11 July 2000 1.63 1.62 August 2000 1.66 1.62 September 2000 1.11 1.11 October 2000 1.02 1.01 November 2000 0.44 0.50 December 2000 0.70 1.31 January 2001 1.14 2.21 February 2001 0.60 1.10 March 2001 -0.08 0.00 April 2001 -0.62 -0.60 May 2001 -0.71 -0.70 June 2001 -0.63 -1.00 July 2001 -1.82 -2.40 August 2001 -2.21 -2.79 September 2001 -1.90 -2.70 October 2001 -2.21 -3.20 November 2001 -2.39 -3.30 December 2001 -3.02 -4.47 January 2002 -3.64 -5.41 February 2002 -3.68 -5.06 March 2002 -3.36 -4.20 April 2002 -2.65 -3.22 May 2002 -2.50 -3.02 June 2002 -2.39 -2.73 July 2002 -1.29 -1.64 August 2002 -0.80 -1.23 September 2002 -0.69 -0.92 October 2002 -0.26 -0.41 November 2002 -0.06 -0.31 December 2002 0.49 0.31 January 2003 0.73 0.73 February 2003 1.29 1.46 March 2003 1.74 2.40 April 2003 1.15 0.83 May 2003 1.10 0.73 June 2003 1.40 1.14 July 2003 1.35 1.14 August 2003 1.01 0.73 September 2003 1.20 0.93 October 2003 1.26 0.83 November 2003 1.69 1.14 December 2003 1.81 1.24 January 2004 2.29 1.76 February 2004 2.51 1.85 March 2004 2.55 1.02 April 2004 3.33 2.37 May 2004 3.60 2.79 June 2004 3.30 2.47 July 2004 3.30 2.47 August 2004 3.84 3.09 September 2004 3.98 2.88 October 2004 3.75 2.88 November 2004 3.87 3.59 December 2004 4.01 3.68 January 2005 4.00 3.15 February 2005 3.75 2.83 March 2005 3.62 2.93 April 2005 3.33 3.02 May 2005 3.06 2.61 June 2005 2.99 2.31 July 2005 2.59 2.11 August 2005 2.22 1.90 September 2005 2.25 2.70 October 2005 2.70 3.80 November 2005 2.20 2.78 December 2005 1.91 2.37 January 2006 1.76 2.36 February 2006 1.57 1.57 March 2006 1.20 0.98 April 2006 1.24 0.68 May 2006 2.16 1.57 June 2006 2.81 2.16 July 2006 3.07 2.36 August 2006 3.44 2.75 September 2006 3.26 1.95 October 2006 2.66 0.39 November 2006 3.21 1.45 December 2006 3.32 1.93 January 2007 3.29 1.54 February 2007 3.22 2.23 March 2007 3.51 2.82 April 2007 3.77 3.01 May 2007 3.53 2.89 June 2007 3.21 2.78 July 2007 3.42 2.88 August 2007 3.26 2.39 September 2007 3.00 2.19 October 2007 3.69 3.36 November 2007 3.62 3.14 December 2007 3.72 3.03 January 2008 4.32 3.88 February 2008 5.09 4.55 March 2008 6.12 5.38 April 2008 7.19 6.50 May 2008 7.19 6.65 June 2008 7.89 7.28 Figure: Catagories of Core Imports 12-month percent change Period Finished goods Material-intensive goods January 1999 -0.56 -4.50 February 1999 -0.38 -4.24 March 1999 -0.43 -4.14 April 1999 -0.40 -4.09 May 1999 -0.31 -3.19 June 1999 -0.34 -2.48 July 1999 -0.19 -1.32 August 1999 0.00 -0.30 September 1999 0.38 -0.07 October 1999 -0.12 0.62 November 1999 -0.36 2.07 December 1999 -0.36 3.26 January 2000 -0.45 3.41 February 2000 -0.65 4.77 March 2000 -0.53 6.68 April 2000 -0.28 6.75 May 2000 -0.21 5.36 June 2000 -0.28 5.45 July 2000 0.04 5.74 August 2000 -0.14 6.40 September 2000 -0.48 5.24 October 2000 -0.43 4.92 November 2000 -0.55 3.00 December 2000 -0.52 3.81 January 2001 -0.51 5.04 February 2001 -0.51 3.45 March 2001 -0.15 0.17 April 2001 -0.49 -0.72 May 2001 -0.65 -0.73 June 2001 -0.45 -1.16 July 2001 -0.79 -4.02 August 2001 -0.73 -5.91 September 2001 -0.52 -5.14 October 2001 -0.42 -6.56 November 2001 -0.56 -7.02 December 2001 -0.52 -9.17 January 2002 -0.87 -10.10 February 2002 -0.98 -10.07 March 2002 -1.40 -8.05 April 2002 -1.17 -6.12 May 2002 -1.10 -5.48 June 2002 -0.96 -5.23 July 2002 -0.73 -2.19 August 2002 -0.55 -0.75 September 2002 -0.73 0.22 October 2002 -0.71 1.64 November 2002 -0.75 2.85 December 2002 -0.56 4.09 January 2003 -0.25 4.31 February 2003 -0.05 6.11 March 2003 0.27 6.52 April 2003 0.30 4.38 May 2003 0.40 3.55 June 2003 0.52 4.21 July 2003 0.46 4.03 August 2003 0.23 3.87 September 2003 0.18 4.04 October 2003 0.33 4.31 November 2003 0.78 4.96 December 2003 0.67 5.60 January 2004 1.10 6.18 February 2004 1.11 7.19 March 2004 1.18 7.81 April 2004 1.14 10.67 May 2004 1.09 12.78 June 2004 0.73 11.62 July 2004 1.10 11.46 August 2004 1.33 13.19 September 2004 1.54 13.41 October 2004 1.45 12.50 November 2004 1.48 12.43 December 2004 2.01 12.62 January 2005 2.04 12.18 February 2005 2.23 10.41 March 2005 2.05 10.25 April 2005 2.13 8.83 May 2005 2.20 6.90 June 2005 2.37 7.02 July 2005 1.80 6.21 August 2005 1.65 4.77 September 2005 1.74 4.64 October 2005 1.59 6.38 November 2005 1.23 5.88 December 2005 0.67 5.61 January 2006 0.35 6.13 February 2006 0.24 6.12 March 2006 0.17 4.99 April 2006 0.13 5.03 May 2006 0.25 8.69 June 2006 0.45 10.82 July 2006 0.95 10.44 August 2006 1.05 11.28 September 2006 0.97 11.11 October 2006 1.11 9.00 November 2006 1.26 9.65 December 2006 1.47 9.51 January 2007 1.57 8.89 February 2007 1.45 8.30 March 2007 1.66 8.51 April 2007 1.77 9.28 May 2007 1.70 7.98 June 2007 1.67 6.68 July 2007 1.54 7.71 August 2007 1.66 7.08 September 2007 1.67 5.78 October 2007 1.73 7.79 November 2007 1.83 7.89 December 2007 1.93 7.92 January 2008 2.03 9.59 February 2008 2.37 11.35 March 2008 2.65 13.97 April 2008 3.38 15.71 May 2008 3.45 15.38 June 2008 3.45 17.56 Figure: Oil Dollars per barrel Period Spot WTI Import unit value January 1999 12.47 9.88 February 1999 12.01 10.05 March 1999 14.66 11.20 April 1999 17.34 13.67 May 1999 17.75 15.25 June 1999 17.89 15.11 July 1999 20.07 16.80 August 1999 21.26 18.70 September 1999 23.88 20.49 October 1999 22.64 21.35 November 1999 24.86 21.74 December 1999 26.13 23.31 January 2000 27.27 24.02 February 2000 29.35 26.17 March 2000 29.89 27.43 April 2000 25.74 25.19 May 2000 28.78 25.35 June 2000 31.86 27.41 July 2000 29.72 28.35 August 2000 31.22 27.16 September 2000 33.88 29.74 October 2000 33.08 29.33 November 2000 34.40 29.41 December 2000 28.46 27.49 January 2001 29.58 25.54 February 2001 29.61 25.55 March 2001 27.24 24.02 April 2001 27.41 23.54 May 2001 28.64 24.47 June 2001 27.60 24.17 July 2001 26.45 23.01 August 2001 27.47 23.06 September 2001 25.88 23.94 October 2001 22.21 20.47 November 2001 19.67 17.83 December 2001 19.33 16.31 January 2002 19.67 17.14 February 2002 20.74 17.48 March 2002 24.42 20.41 April 2002 26.27 23.39 May 2002 27.02 24.49 June 2002 25.52 24.12 July 2002 26.94 24.62 August 2002 28.38 25.41 September 2002 29.67 26.31 October 2002 28.85 27.14 November 2002 26.27 25.01 December 2002 29.42 25.06 January 2003 32.94 28.26 February 2003 35.87 31.53 March 2003 33.55 31.79 April 2003 28.25 27.23 May 2003 28.14 25.08 June 2003 30.72 26.32 July 2003 30.76 27.55 August 2003 31.59 28.56 September 2003 28.29 27.28 October 2003 30.33 27.12 November 2003 31.05 27.42 December 2003 32.15 28.08 January 2004 34.24 29.80 February 2004 34.74 30.45 March 2004 36.76 32.03 April 2004 36.69 32.60 May 2004 40.29 35.04 June 2004 38.04 35.37 July 2004 40.80 35.19 August 2004 44.94 37.91 September 2004 45.95 39.17 October 2004 53.13 43.42 November 2004 48.46 41.12 December 2004 43.33 37.67 January 2005 46.84 37.13 February 2005 47.97 39.04 March 2005 54.22 43.36 April 2005 53.04 46.78 May 2005 49.83 45.17 June 2005 56.40 46.72 July 2005 58.70 50.75 August 2005 64.97 54.89 September 2005 65.57 60.25 October 2005 62.36 59.55 November 2005 58.30 54.38 December 2005 59.43 51.82 January 2006 65.51 54.70 February 2006 61.63 55.39 March 2006 62.87 54.78 April 2006 69.69 60.32 May 2006 70.94 65.50 June 2006 70.96 65.03 July 2006 74.41 68.19 August 2006 73.05 68.04 September 2006 63.87 63.03 October 2006 58.89 56.51 November 2006 59.15 53.77 December 2006 62.06 55.60 January 2007 54.23 53.25 February 2007 59.26 52.74 March 2007 60.56 56.35 April 2007 63.96 61.11 May 2007 63.46 64.30 June 2007 67.48 65.55 July 2007 74.12 69.28 August 2007 72.39 70.44 September 2007 79.93 70.64 October 2007 85.93 74.88 November 2007 94.62 82.19 December 2007 91.70 84.25 January 2008 92.95 85.41 February 2008 95.36 85.66 March 2008 105.42 91.57 April 2008 112.33 98.89 May 2008 125.39 108.34 June 2008 133.93 ND July 2008 141.33 ND Figure: Natural Gas Period Import price index (2000=100) Spot Henry Hub (Dollars per million BTU) January 1999 57.90 1.84 February 1999 53.90 1.77 March 1999 48.40 1.80 April 1999 49.30 2.16 May 1999 56.40 2.26 June 1999 53.10 2.30 July 1999 60.50 2.32 August 1999 64.30 2.80 September 1999 68.80 2.52 October 1999 70.10 2.74 November 1999 80.40 2.33 December 1999 73.20 2.36 January 2000 67.40 2.44 February 2000 74.80 2.65 March 2000 76.20 2.79 April 2000 80.30 3.03 May 2000 78.80 3.58 June 2000 95.60 4.27 July 2000 100.50 3.96 August 2000 102.30 4.41 September 2000 108.30 5.07 October 2000 119.00 5.02 November 2000 123.60 5.54 December 2000 173.20 8.95 January 2001 215.50 8.17 February 2001 166.30 5.66 March 2001 123.80 5.16 April 2001 126.60 5.17 May 2001 120.50 4.21 June 2001 101.90 3.71 July 2001 81.90 3.10 August 2001 80.80 2.94 September 2001 77.30 2.15 October 2001 61.10 2.45 November 2001 74.30 2.37 December 2001 67.90 2.39 January 2002 69.70 2.25 February 2002 58.00 2.31 March 2002 64.90 3.03 April 2002 86.20 3.42 May 2002 84.50 3.49 June 2002 85.10 3.22 July 2002 80.00 2.98 August 2002 76.60 3.09 September 2002 84.00 3.55 October 2002 90.70 4.12 November 2002 93.60 4.03 98.80 4.72 January 2003 December 2002 121.20 5.44 February 2003 132.10 7.79 March 2003 190.70 5.95 April 2003 124.70 5.27 May 2003 123.20 5.81 June 2003 134.60 5.82 July 2003 125.10 5.03 August 2003 112.00 4.97 September 2003 117.80 4.62 October 2003 109.30 4.65 November 2003 109.50 4.49 December 2003 117.40 6.15 January 2004 142.50 6.17 February 2004 141.40 5.39 March 2004 123.60 5.38 April 2004 125.40 5.71 May 2004 131.80 6.30 June 2004 143.70 6.29 July 2004 137.10 5.93 August 2004 137.20 5.44 September 2004 120.50 5.11 October 2004 121.80 6.39 November 2004 169.90 6.16 December 2004 167.30 6.62 January 2005 153.30 6.13 February 2005 147.00 6.13 March 2005 148.20 6.92 April 2005 166.40 7.20 May 2005 163.00 6.48 June 2005 151.20 7.16 July 2005 161.70 7.64 August 2005 168.20 9.46 September 2005 217.00 11.88 October 2005 270.80 13.42 November 2005 274.00 10.28 December 2005 259.20 13.05 January 2006 254.60 8.65 February 2006 193.90 7.54 March 2006 169.20 6.90 April 2006 164.00 7.16 May 2006 164.20 6.23 June 2006 150.80 6.14 July 2006 149.10 6.22 August 2006 161.40 7.14 September 2006 152.80 4.90 October 2006 117.70 5.84 November 2006 168.50 7.36 December 2006 185.70 6.73 January 2007 161.20 6.59 February 2007 169.00 7.92 March 2007 177.10 7.10 April 2007 172.50 7.59 May 2007 175.80 7.62 June 2007 174.70 7.35 July 2007 160.70 6.21 August 2007 140.40 6.23 September 2007 136.40 6.08 October 2007 151.40 6.78 November 2007 175.90 7.15 December 2007 178.40 7.13 January 2008 182.40 7.98 February 2008 198.30 8.54 March 2008 211.60 9.44 April 2008 225.80 10.13 May 2008 242.90 11.28 June 2008 266.90 12.68 ND 12.60 July 2008 Figure: Merchandise Exports 12-month percent change Period Core goods Total goods January 1999 -2.09 -2.76 February 1999 -2.00 -2.67 March 1999 -2.16 -2.78 April 1999 -1.61 -2.19 May 1999 -1.52 -2.19 June 1999 -1.12 -1.70 July 1999 -0.83 -1.41 August 1999 0.05 -0.61 September 1999 0.74 0.00 October 1999 1.18 0.41 November 1999 1.16 0.41 December 1999 1.29 0.51 January 2000 1.42 0.71 February 2000 2.20 1.32 March 2000 3.04 2.15 April 2000 2.85 1.94 May 2000 2.84 2.04 June 2000 2.70 1.93 July 2000 2.60 1.94 August 2000 2.04 1.42 September 2000 2.56 1.93 October 2000 2.13 1.52 November 2000 1.89 1.31 December 2000 1.63 1.11 January 2001 1.65 1.11 February 2001 0.97 0.60 March 2001 0.29 0.00 April 2001 0.22 -0.10 May 2001 -0.26 -0.60 June 2001 -0.38 -0.70 July 2001 -0.63 -1.00 August 2001 -0.63 -1.00 September 2001 -1.08 -1.39 October 2001 -1.58 -1.99 November 2001 -2.10 -2.49 December 2001 -2.04 -2.50 January 2002 -2.19 -2.79 February 2002 -2.38 -2.89 March 2002 -1.90 -2.40 April 2002 -1.34 -1.90 May 2002 -0.97 -1.61 June 2002 -0.56 -1.41 July 2002 0.26 -0.71 August 2002 0.68 -0.30 September 2002 0.90 -0.20 October 2002 1.42 0.41 November 2002 2.16 1.02 December 2002 2.07 1.02 January 2003 2.39 1.44 February 2003 3.33 2.26 March 2003 3.27 2.15 April 2003 2.63 1.63 May 2003 2.64 1.73 June 2003 2.54 1.53 July 2003 1.95 1.12 August 2003 1.71 0.91 September 2003 1.84 1.01 October 2003 2.26 1.32 November 2003 2.67 1.72 December 2003 3.21 2.23 January 2004 3.66 2.63 February 2004 3.72 2.71 March 2004 4.34 3.31 April 2004 5.23 4.12 May 2004 5.54 4.41 June 2004 4.73 3.92 July 2004 5.45 4.53 August 2004 4.91 4.02 September 2004 4.82 4.01 October 2004 5.20 4.40 November 2004 4.96 4.18 December 2004 4.79 3.97 January 2005 4.87 4.04 February 2005 4.28 3.42 March 2005 4.25 3.30 April 2005 4.13 3.09 May 2005 3.50 2.50 June 2005 4.11 3.19 July 2005 3.80 2.79 August 2005 4.31 3.09 September 2005 4.86 3.56 October 2005 5.03 3.74 November 2005 3.96 2.77 December 2005 3.97 2.77 January 2006 3.85 2.75 February 2006 3.92 2.74 March 2006 3.32 2.26 April 2006 3.59 2.53 May 2006 4.64 3.47 June 2006 5.55 4.22 July 2006 5.76 4.49 August 2006 6.44 5.16 September 2006 4.94 3.91 October 2006 3.74 2.86 November 2006 4.88 3.90 December 2006 5.50 4.46 January 2007 5.28 4.15 February 2007 6.15 4.88 March 2007 6.90 5.42 April 2007 6.51 5.11 May 2007 5.87 4.62 June 2007 5.42 4.32 July 2007 5.00 4.03 August 2007 4.65 3.75 September 2007 5.53 4.48 October 2007 6.84 5.57 November 2007 7.47 6.17 December 2007 7.22 6.04 January 2008 8.18 6.81 February 2008 8.27 6.94 March 2008 9.47 7.93 April 2008 9.41 9.64 8.05 10.30 May 2008 June 2008 7.90 8.62 Figure: Categories of Core Exports 12-month percent change Period Finished goods Material-intensive goods January 1999 0.33 -5.85 February 1999 0.36 -5.74 March 1999 0.33 -5.88 April 1999 0.46 -4.73 May 1999 0.37 -4.44 June 1999 0.57 -3.60 July 1999 0.50 -3.07 August 1999 0.62 -0.79 September 1999 0.56 1.16 October 1999 0.70 2.22 November 1999 0.80 1.95 December 1999 0.71 2.40 January 2000 0.61 2.86 February 2000 0.67 5.06 March 2000 0.74 7.24 April 2000 0.76 6.42 May 2000 0.89 6.64 June 2000 0.80 5.97 July 2000 1.04 5.64 August 2000 1.06 3.84 September 2000 1.02 5.26 October 2000 0.78 4.24 November 2000 0.74 3.84 December 2000 0.91 3.16 January 2001 0.98 2.95 February 2001 0.90 0.90 March 2001 1.00 -0.86 April 2001 1.01 -0.94 May 2001 0.91 -2.23 June 2001 0.94 -2.37 July 2001 0.86 -3.03 August 2001 0.71 -2.64 September 2001 0.74 -3.96 October 2001 0.83 -5.28 November 2001 0.81 -6.56 December 2001 0.71 -6.63 January 2002 0.55 -6.48 February 2002 0.43 -6.73 March 2002 0.35 -5.63 April 2002 0.36 -3.98 May 2002 0.32 -3.03 June 2002 0.32 -1.68 July 2002 0.21 0.68 August 2002 0.38 1.40 September 2002 0.41 2.24 October 2002 0.37 3.81 November 2002 0.38 5.51 December 2002 0.29 5.71 January 2003 0.43 6.39 February 2003 0.64 8.76 March 2003 0.45 9.25 April 2003 0.39 7.40 May 2003 0.42 7.20 June 2003 0.51 6.69 July 2003 0.64 4.73 August 2003 0.52 4.33 September 2003 0.46 4.61 October 2003 0.51 5.75 November 2003 0.55 7.01 December 2003 0.73 8.16 January 2004 0.77 9.24 February 2004 0.72 9.28 March 2004 0.91 10.48 April 2004 1.05 12.54 May 2004 1.06 13.36 June 2004 0.97 11.24 July 2004 1.03 13.14 August 2004 1.21 11.46 September 2004 1.25 11.06 October 2004 1.42 11.63 November 2004 1.54 10.85 December 2004 1.69 10.12 January 2005 1.88 9.46 February 2005 1.87 8.20 March 2005 1.83 7.87 April 2005 1.91 7.48 May 2005 1.88 6.07 June 2005 1.80 7.67 July 2005 1.58 7.09 August 2005 1.48 8.67 September 2005 1.63 9.85 October 2005 1.55 10.05 November 2005 1.37 7.41 December 2005 1.28 7.49 January 2006 1.26 7.47 February 2006 1.38 7.50 March 2006 1.44 5.95 April 2006 1.60 6.31 May 2006 1.79 8.61 June 2006 2.04 10.65 July 2006 2.36 10.64 August 2006 2.44 12.12 September 2006 2.40 8.58 October 2006 2.35 5.61 November 2006 2.48 8.66 December 2006 2.52 9.91 January 2007 2.75 8.99 February 2007 2.63 11.10 March 2007 2.69 12.73 April 2007 2.63 11.90 May 2007 2.60 10.33 June 2007 2.48 9.17 July 2007 2.44 8.32 August 2007 2.53 7.35 September 2007 2.41 9.48 October 2007 2.55 12.61 November 2007 2.62 13.60 December 2007 2.77 12.93 January 2008 2.54 15.39 February 2008 2.72 15.19 March 2008 2.76 17.63 April 2008 2.74 17.47 May 2008 2.72 17.99 June 2008 2.72 19.36 Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports (Percentage change from previous period) Annual rate 2007 Q4 Monthly rate 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 Apr. May June BLS prices Merchandise imports Non-oil Core goods1 Finished goods 16.3 15.4 35.1 2.8 2.6 2.6 73.6 Oil 44.3 139.3 7.9 8.9 7.4 4.6 8.4 12.9 1.3 .7 .9 3.7 9.5 13.8 1.5 .6 1.0 2.0 3.9 5.7 .8 .2 .2 Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 2.5 4.1 8.4 1.4 .3 .3 Automotive products 4.7 3.9 2.3 .4 .0 .1 Consumer goods 1.8 4.5 5.8 .8 .2 .2 7.6 22.1 32.0 2.8 1.3 2.5 10.3 17.7 19.8 1.3 1.1 1.9 6.8 23.1 35.3 3.2 1.3 2.6 -2.7 -10.6 -3.7 -.3 .0 -.7 -7.3 -5.4 -.9 1.0 -1.4 88.2 137.9 6.7 7.6 9.9 Material-intensive goods Foods, feeds, beverages Industrial supplies ex. fuels Computers Semiconductors Natural gas 1.6 78.5 Merchandise exports 7.7 12.6 10.0 .4 .4 1.0 Core goods2 9.1 15.4 11.9 .5 .4 1.0 Finished goods 2.6 3.7 2.6 .3 .2 .1 Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 3.1 5.8 3.6 .3 .3 .1 Automotive products 1.3 1.6 2.0 .4 .0 .1 Consumer goods 2.4 2.8 2.1 .1 .0 .1 Material-intensive goods 17.5 30.1 22.5 .6 .7 2.0 Agricultural products 40.9 58.1 14.4 -2.0 .2 2.2 Industrial supples ex. ag. 11.2 21.9 26.0 1.6 .9 2.1 Computers -3.9 Semiconductors -10.3 -4.8 -.1 .0 .1 1.0 .6 -1.7 -.3 -.7 2.5 NIPA prices Chain price index Imports of goods & services Non-oil merchandise Core goods1 Exports of goods & services Total merchandise Core goods 2 13.2 12.6 n.a. … … … 4.3 7.6 n.a. … … … 3.9 8.3 n.a. … … … 6.0 8.9 n.a. … … … 6.3 10.2 n.a. … … … 7.6 12.2 n.a. … … … 1. Excludes computers, semiconductors, and natural gas. Return to table 2. Excludes computers and semiconductors. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Figure: Foreign Official Balances Held at FRBNY: Selected Accounts A line chart shows two series, "Treasury Securities", and "Agency Securities", from April 2008 through May 30, 2008. Data is daily; unit is billions of dollars. [Content partially redacted.] The "Treasury Securities" series begins at about $1270 billion in April 2008, and generally increases to about $1320 billion by May 30, 2008. The "Agency Securities" series begins at about $905 billion in April 2008, and generally increases to about $950 billion by May 30, 2008. Figure: Line 3: Net Private Banking Flows A line chart shows a single series, "6-month moving average", from 2003 through 2008. The series begins at about 3 in 2003, generally increases to about 20 in 2003:Q4, generally decreases to about -10 in 2005, and generally increases to about 30 in 2006:Q2. The series generally decreases and ends at about -42 in 2008:Q2. Summary of U.S. International Transactions (Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted except as noted) 2007 2006 Q2 Official financial flows 1. Change in foreign official assets in the U.S. (increase, +) a. G-10 countries + ECB 2008 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr. May 490.3 386.9 88.8 13.4 121.5 176.4 31.2 19.1 487.9 411.1 88.8 13.5 145.5 173.7 46.4 46.1 26.1 36.8 9.3 3.3 11.8 -1.5 3.3 -10.6 b. OPEC 45.2 30.9 0.4 2.8 16.3 18.1 0.8 9.6 416.6 343.4 83.1 7.4 117.4 157.2 42.3 47.0 2.4 -24.1 0.0 -0.1 -24.0 2.7 -15.1 -27.0 348.8 387.4 104.7 88.5 91.9 -52.1 … … 122.7 -115.8 24.7 -47.3 -73.0 -143.6 -19.9 -56.0 634.2 750.5 298.9 32.5 190.9 46.2 28.5 30.9 -58.2 156.6 -13.5 60.5 66.7 64.7 47.0 10.2 25.8 19.4 36.3 -2.6 16.4 -18.4 -22.9 -22.8 c. Corporate and municipal bonds 517.8 383.5 169.5 -7.3 49.4 -10.7 11.9 38.5 d. Corporate stocks 4 148.9 191.1 106.5 -18.1 58.4 10.6 -7.6 5.1 c. All other countries 2. Change in U.S. official assets (decrease, +) 1 Private financial flows Banks 3. Change in net foreign positions of banking offices in the U.S. 2 Securities3 4. Foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. securities a. Treasury securities b. Agency bonds 5. U.S. net acquisitions (-) of foreign securities -362.4 -287.2 -84.1 -99.2 -4.7 -35.3 8.7 -27.1 a. Bonds -224.5 -168.0 -57.0 -42.6 -13.6 -7.8 10.1 -9.9 b. Stock purchases -119.1 -107.9 -27.2 -52.1 11.5 -26.7 -1.3 -17.2 -18.8 -11.3 0.0 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -241.2 -333.3 -93.6 -62.0 -110.9 -85.6 … … 242.0 237.5 61.9 105.9 55.7 46.6 … … 29.7 6.5 -1.0 5.9 -13.5 -8.0 … … 2.2 -10.7 -1.6 0.7 -3.5 -0.9 … … -78.4 139.8 -100.4 152.0 50.9 128.5 … … -788.1 -731.2 -194.1 -173.0 -167.2 -176.4 … … -3.9 -1.8 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 … … -47.1 -41.3 0.7 71.6 -45.6 52.6 … … c. Stock swaps 4 Other flows (quarterly data, s.a.) 6. U.S. direct investment (-) abroad 7. Foreign direct investment in the U.S. 8. Net derivatives (inflow, +) 9. Foreign acquisitions of U.S. currency 10. Other (inflow, +) 5 U.S. current account balance (s.a.) Capital account balance (s.a.) 6 Statistical discrepancy (s.a.) Note. Data in lines 1 through 5 differ in timing and coverage from the balance of payments data published by the Department of Commerce. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding. 1. Includes changes in U.S. official reserve assets and in outstanding reciprocal currency swaps with certain foreign central banks. Return to table 2. Changes in dollar-denominated positions of all depository institutions and bank holding companies plus certain transactions between broker-dealers and unaffiliated foreigners (particularly borrowing and lending under repurchase agreements). Includes changes in custody liabilities other than U.S. Treasury bills. Return to table 3. Includes commissions on securities transactions and therefore does not match exactly the data on U.S. international transactions published by the Department of Commerce. Return to table 4. Includes (4d) or represents (5c) stocks acquired through non-market means such as mergers and reincorporations. Return to table 5. Transactions by nonbanking concerns and other banking and official transactions not shown elsewhere plus amounts resulting from adjustments made by the Department of Commerce and revisions (in lines 1 through 5 and 8) since publication of the quarterly data in the Survey of Current Business. Return to table 6. Consists of transactions in nonproduced nonfinancial assets and capital transfers. Return to table … Not applicable. Foreign Official Financial Inflows (+) Through May 2008 ($ Billions, monthly, not seasonally adjusted) Figure: Total $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period January 2003 Total 6-month moving average 9.67 7.41 28.52 12.09 8.23 13.05 April 2003 -4.13 11.75 May 2003 53.42 17.60 February 2003 March 2003 June 2003 July 2003 14.70 18.40 7.50 18.04 August 2003 19.39 16.52 September 2003 34.29 20.86 October 2003 28.77 26.34 November 2003 37.07 23.62 December 2003 30.69 26.28 January 2004 58.17 34.73 February 2004 38.07 37.84 March 2004 51.37 40.69 April 2004 20.41 39.30 May 2004 14.99 35.62 June 2004 44.25 37.88 July 2004 24.03 32.19 August 2004 19.14 29.03 September 2004 33.55 26.06 October 2004 34.16 28.35 November 2004 26.12 30.21 December 2004 33.27 28.38 January 2005 17.75 27.33 February 2005 3.45 24.72 March 2005 4.51 19.88 April 2005 38.45 20.59 May 2005 22.36 19.96 June 2005 20.03 17.76 July 2005 26.57 19.23 August 2005 26.11 23.00 September 2005 2.68 22.70 October 2005 35.24 22.16 November 2005 37.67 24.72 December 2005 25.27 25.59 January 2006 54.29 30.21 February 2006 45.57 33.45 March 2006 30.56 38.10 April 2006 44.15 39.59 May 2006 43.97 40.64 June 2006 39.18 42.95 July 2006 64.51 44.66 August 2006 34.93 42.88 September 2006 22.36 41.52 October 2006 24.22 38.20 November 2006 28.61 35.63 December 2006 55.54 38.36 January 2007 48.89 35.76 February 2007 64.53 40.69 March 2007 49.85 45.27 April 2007 42.72 48.36 May 2007 11.19 45.45 June 2007 34.91 42.02 July 2007 August 2007 46.42 41.60 -29.42 25.95 September 2007 -3.53 17.05 October 2007 41.19 16.79 November 2007 61.36 25.16 December 2007 42.94 26.50 January 2008 105.84 36.40 February 2008 16.38 44.03 March 2008 51.47 53.20 April 2008 46.36 54.06 May 2008 46.05 51.51 Figure: G-10 + ECB $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period G-10 + ECB 6-month moving average January 2003 6.59 1.47 February 2003 6.31 4.02 March 2003 14.18 5.46 April 2003 -6.95 4.84 May 2003 25.41 8.04 June 2003 6.61 8.69 July 2003 3.46 8.17 August 2003 1.50 7.37 September 2003 8.12 6.36 October 2003 17.92 10.50 November 2003 19.56 9.53 December 2003 8.65 9.87 January 2004 39.50 15.88 February 2004 26.12 19.98 March 2004 36.94 24.78 April 2004 6.32 22.85 May 2004 15.99 22.25 June 2004 21.83 24.45 3.38 18.43 August 2004 17.75 17.03 September 2004 -0.76 10.75 1.64 9.97 July 2004 October 2004 November 2004 2.15 7.66 December 2004 -6.87 2.88 January 2005 -0.01 2.32 February 2005 3.77 -0.01 March 2005 3.67 0.72 April 2005 -1.89 0.14 May 2005 -5.72 -1.18 June 2005 -10.72 -1.82 July 2005 9.52 -0.23 August 2005 7.17 0.34 -2.91 -0.76 7.96 0.88 11.01 3.67 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 -6.23 5.52 January 2006 February 2006 4.42 3.75 2.33 2.95 March 2006 -0.51 3.35 April 2006 -3.44 1.45 May 2006 3.38 0.18 June 2006 0.40 1.28 July 2006 5.31 1.25 August 2006 0.25 0.90 September 2006 0.41 1.05 October 2006 9.55 3.22 November 2006 1.18 2.85 December 2006 1.67 3.06 January 2007 4.92 3.00 February 2007 -1.64 2.68 March 2007 9.03 4.12 April 2007 5.50 3.44 May 2007 1.20 3.45 June 2007 2.64 3.61 July 2007 4.47 3.53 -4.98 2.98 September 2007 3.80 2.11 October 2007 9.15 2.72 November 2007 1.63 2.79 December 2007 1.04 2.52 August 2007 January 2008 2.87 2.25 February 2008 -7.34 1.86 2.92 1.71 March 2008 April 2008 3.25 0.73 May 2008 -10.57 -1.30 Figure: OPEC $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period OPEC 6-month moving average January 2003 -2.23 -0.49 February 2003 -3.62 -1.12 March 2003 -1.80 -1.16 April 2003 -1.60 -1.65 May 2003 1.88 -1.47 June 2003 0.28 -1.18 July 2003 -0.44 -0.88 1.01 -0.11 August 2003 September 2003 1.46 0.43 October 2003 4.70 1.48 November 2003 2.54 1.59 December 2003 3.69 2.16 January 2004 1.57 2.49 February 2004 1.80 2.63 March 2004 0.45 2.46 April 2004 2.06 2.02 May 2004 -0.20 1.56 June 2004 -3.94 0.29 July 2004 2.66 0.47 -6.22 -0.87 September 2004 7.08 0.24 October 2004 4.42 0.63 November 2004 1.93 0.99 December 2004 0.48 1.73 January 2005 3.41 1.85 February 2005 -1.31 2.67 March 2005 August 2004 -5.95 0.50 April 2005 1.85 0.07 May 2005 2.78 0.21 June 2005 -0.23 0.09 July 2005 -3.44 -1.05 1.35 -0.61 September 2005 -0.09 0.37 October 2005 August 2005 10.41 1.80 November 2005 6.79 2.46 December 2005 -1.52 2.25 January 2006 10.03 4.49 February 2006 4.84 5.08 March 2006 2.39 5.49 April 2006 7.50 5.00 May 2006 6.25 4.92 June 2006 7.87 6.48 July 2006 5.13 5.66 August 2006 5.58 5.79 September 2006 2.42 5.79 -4.37 3.81 October 2006 November 2006 -0.41 2.70 December 2006 -1.98 1.06 January 2007 6.78 1.34 February 2007 -0.40 0.34 5.00 0.77 -0.92 1.35 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 2.72 1.87 June 2007 -1.40 1.96 July 2007 -0.45 0.76 August 2007 2.21 1.19 September 2007 1.03 0.53 October 2007 9.05 2.19 November 2007 -3.74 1.12 December 2007 11.01 3.19 January 2008 9.71 4.88 February 2008 8.30 5.89 March 2008 0.08 5.73 April 2008 0.81 4.36 May 2008 9.57 6.58 Figure: All other countries $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period January 2003 All other countries 6-month moving average 5.32 6.42 February 2003 25.83 9.19 March 2003 -4.16 8.75 April 2003 4.42 8.56 May 2003 26.13 11.03 June 2003 7.82 10.89 July 2003 4.49 10.76 August 2003 16.88 9.26 September 2003 24.71 14.07 6.14 14.36 November 2003 14.96 12.50 December 2003 18.36 14.26 January 2004 17.10 16.36 February 2004 10.15 15.24 March 2004 13.98 13.45 April 2004 12.03 14.43 May 2004 -0.79 11.80 June 2004 26.36 13.14 July 2004 18.00 13.29 7.61 12.86 September 2004 27.23 15.07 October 2004 28.09 17.75 November 2004 22.05 21.56 December 2004 39.65 23.77 January 2005 October 2003 August 2004 14.35 23.16 February 2005 0.99 22.06 March 2005 6.79 18.65 April 2005 38.49 20.39 May 2005 25.30 20.93 June 2005 30.98 19.48 July 2005 20.50 20.51 August 2005 17.59 23.27 5.68 23.09 October 2005 16.87 19.49 November 2005 19.88 18.58 December 2005 33.02 18.92 January 2006 38.74 21.96 February 2006 38.40 25.43 March 2006 28.69 29.27 April 2006 40.08 33.13 May 2006 34.34 35.55 June 2006 30.91 35.19 July 2006 54.07 37.75 August 2006 29.11 36.20 September 2006 19.54 34.67 October 2006 19.04 31.17 September 2005 November 2006 27.84 30.08 December 2006 55.84 34.24 January 2007 37.19 31.42 February 2007 62.58 37.00 March 2007 35.81 39.72 April 2007 42.13 43.57 May 2007 7.27 40.14 June 2007 33.67 36.44 July 2007 42.40 37.31 -26.65 22.44 September 2007 -8.37 15.08 October 2007 22.99 11.89 November 2007 63.48 21.25 December 2007 30.89 20.79 January 2008 93.27 29.27 February 2008 15.42 36.28 March 2008 48.47 45.75 April 2008 42.30 48.97 May 2008 47.05 46.23 August 2007 Private Securities Flows Through May 2008 ($ Billions, monthly, not seasonally adjusted) Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities Figure: Total $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period Total January 2003 17.44 February 2003 6-month moving average 27.34 -13.44 20.48 March 2003 58.86 24.56 April 2003 31.60 26.82 May 2003 63.00 30.64 June 2003 40.14 32.93 July 2003 48.05 38.03 August 2003 24.53 44.36 September 2003 -16.76 31.76 October 2003 -4.57 25.73 November 2003 40.01 21.90 December 2003 37.18 21.41 January 2004 37.03 19.57 February 2004 30.45 20.56 March 2004 13.70 25.63 April 2004 56.80 35.86 May 2004 28.82 34.00 June 2004 65.31 38.69 July 2004 38.63 38.95 August 2004 12.37 35.94 September 2004 31.49 38.90 October 2004 33.85 35.08 November 2004 76.09 42.96 December 2004 55.16 41.27 January 2005 47.78 42.79 February 2005 50.94 49.22 March 2005 56.63 53.41 April 2005 43.86 55.08 May 2005 8.82 43.86 June 2005 43.12 41.86 July 2005 46.50 41.65 August 2005 39.79 39.79 September 2005 80.81 43.82 October 2005 66.37 47.57 November 2005 73.45 58.34 December 2005 28.73 55.94 January 2006 34.86 54.00 February 2006 46.19 55.07 March 2006 62.28 51.98 April 2006 1.63 41.19 May 2006 69.35 40.51 June 2006 47.46 43.63 July 2006 21.36 41.38 August 2006 81.57 47.28 September 2006 75.04 49.40 October 2006 69.63 60.74 November 2006 107.26 67.06 December 2006 17.59 62.08 January 2007 94.33 74.24 February 2007 48.36 68.70 March 2007 85.52 70.45 April 2007 61.41 69.08 May 2007 153.01 76.70 June 2007 84.49 87.85 July 2007 11.13 73.98 1.91 66.24 19.48 55.24 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 107.05 62.84 November 2007 45.79 44.98 December 2007 38.07 37.24 January 2008 -11.09 33.54 February 2008 49.88 41.53 7.37 39.51 April 2008 28.50 26.42 May 2008 30.90 23.94 March 2008 Figure: Treasury Securities $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period January 2003 Treasury Securities 6-month moving average -6.51 6.81 February 2003 -13.68 4.03 30.12 4.50 April 2003 6.34 6.37 May 2003 24.86 8.73 June 2003 21.18 10.39 July 2003 35.62 17.41 August 2003 12.62 21.79 September 2003 -8.51 15.35 -19.38 11.07 November 2003 10.99 8.75 December 2003 8.14 6.58 10.08 2.32 March 2003 October 2003 January 2004 February 2004 4.70 1.00 March 2004 17.47 5.33 April 2004 18.69 11.68 May 2004 11.12 11.70 June 2004 32.86 15.82 3.21 14.68 August 2004 -6.67 12.78 September 2004 -1.51 9.62 October 2004 -1.17 6.31 7.20 5.65 December 2004 -1.09 -0.00 January 2005 11.66 1.40 February 2005 22.70 6.30 March 2005 44.17 13.91 April 2005 18.04 17.11 May 2005 -19.60 12.65 June 2005 July 2004 November 2004 -11.44 10.92 July 2005 3.66 9.59 August 2005 9.32 7.36 11.33 1.88 September 2005 October 2005 9.91 0.53 November 2005 39.64 10.40 December 2005 -7.10 11.13 January 2006 -17.81 7.55 February 2006 -10.97 4.17 2.87 2.76 March 2006 April 2006 -39.13 -5.42 May 2006 1.86 -11.71 June 2006 13.26 -8.32 July 2006 -11.35 -7.24 8.81 -3.95 -19.05 -7.60 October 2006 -3.96 -1.74 November 2006 24.46 2.03 December 2006 -7.19 -1.38 January 2007 7.28 1.73 February 2007 4.86 1.07 August 2006 September 2006 March 2007 30.75 9.37 April 2007 -29.77 5.07 May 2007 12.81 3.12 3.48 4.90 June 2007 July 2007 5.58 4.62 47.65 11.75 7.27 7.84 October 2007 49.56 21.06 November 2007 21.40 22.49 December 2007 -4.23 21.20 January 2008 -1.90 19.96 February 2008 26.99 16.51 March 2008 39.63 21.91 April 2008 47.00 21.48 May 2008 10.18 19.61 August 2007 September 2007 Figure: Agency Bonds $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period Agency Bonds 6-month moving average January 2003 6.75 7.71 February 2003 -7.35 5.05 March 2003 1.85 3.35 April 2003 1.76 1.48 May 2003 7.08 1.98 June 2003 -7.12 0.49 July 2003 -0.68 -0.74 August 2003 -13.12 -1.70 September 2003 -18.19 -5.05 October 2003 -1.71 -5.62 November 2003 -4.22 -7.51 December 2003 -1.87 -6.63 January 2004 8.77 -5.06 February 2004 4.73 -2.08 -15.43 -1.62 April 2004 14.02 1.00 May 2004 6.78 2.83 June 2004 4.08 3.83 July 2004 4.40 3.10 August 2004 1.07 2.49 September 2004 -4.34 4.34 October 2004 15.77 4.63 November 2004 13.88 5.81 December 2004 13.65 7.41 January 2005 9.85 8.31 February 2005 -1.17 7.94 March 2005 -7.57 7.40 April 2005 3.31 5.33 May 2005 10.80 4.81 4.83 3.34 16.47 4.45 March 2004 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 -1.86 4.33 9.02 7.10 October 2005 16.75 9.33 November 2005 -6.06 6.52 December 2005 -4.61 4.95 5.74 3.16 September 2005 January 2006 February 2006 8.46 4.88 March 2006 -3.46 2.80 April 2006 -2.20 -0.36 May 2006 16.71 3.44 June 2006 2.96 4.70 July 2006 -7.84 2.44 August 2006 10.96 2.85 6.00 4.43 -4.16 4.10 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 0.30 1.37 December 2006 -7.68 -0.40 3.87 1.55 February 2007 -22.30 -4.00 March 2007 January 2007 -12.30 -7.05 April 2007 12.89 -4.20 May 2007 9.87 -2.61 June 2007 13.53 0.93 July 2007 -4.47 -0.47 August 2007 1.07 3.43 September 2007 0.85 5.62 October 2007 8.79 4.94 November 2007 13.60 5.56 December 2007 -6.03 2.30 January 2008 -5.92 2.06 February 2008 17.15 4.74 March 2008 -29.66 -0.35 April 2008 -22.87 -5.62 May 2008 -22.79 -11.69 Figure: Corporate and Municipal Bonds $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period January 2003 February 2003 Corporate and Municipal Bonds 6-month moving average 20.06 11.35 9.68 11.05 March 2003 24.11 14.85 April 2003 19.02 16.97 May 2003 24.35 17.90 June 2003 16.87 19.01 July 2003 22.64 19.45 August 2003 13.45 20.07 September 2003 16.04 18.73 October 2003 16.29 18.28 November 2003 24.31 18.27 December 2003 16.98 18.29 January 2004 6.40 15.58 February 2004 16.32 16.06 March 2004 21.74 17.01 April 2004 13.96 16.62 May 2004 16.59 15.33 June 2004 24.18 16.53 July 2004 23.71 19.42 August 2004 20.39 20.10 September 2004 40.67 23.25 October 2004 15.61 23.53 November 2004 20.18 24.12 December 2004 35.28 25.97 January 2005 13.12 24.21 February 2005 24.84 24.95 March 2005 17.07 21.01 April 2005 15.98 21.08 May 2005 15.52 20.30 June 2005 44.91 21.91 July 2005 18.59 22.82 August 2005 30.77 23.81 September 2005 38.43 27.37 October 2005 30.10 29.72 November 2005 33.26 32.68 December 2005 30.12 30.21 January 2006 22.63 30.89 February 2006 30.20 30.79 March 2006 41.66 31.33 April 2006 33.97 31.97 May 2006 36.92 32.58 June 2006 34.05 33.24 July 2006 27.89 34.11 August 2006 53.93 38.07 September 2006 72.70 43.24 October 2006 49.04 45.75 November 2006 71.30 51.48 December 2006 43.51 53.06 January 2007 60.22 58.45 February 2007 53.63 58.40 March 2007 58.00 55.95 April 2007 42.67 54.89 May 2007 87.62 57.61 June 2007 39.25 56.90 July 2007 -8.35 45.47 August 2007 -7.81 35.23 8.84 27.04 16.60 22.69 November 2007 6.52 9.18 December 2007 26.29 7.02 January 2008 -7.10 7.22 September 2007 October 2007 February 2008 9.40 March 2008 10.09 -13.01 6.45 April 2008 11.92 5.67 May 2008 38.46 10.99 Figure: Corporate Stocks $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period Corporate Stocks 6-month moving average January 2003 -2.87 1.48 February 2003 -2.08 0.35 March 2003 2.78 1.86 April 2003 4.49 2.00 May 2003 6.70 2.03 June 2003 9.20 3.04 July 2003 -9.53 1.93 August 2003 11.57 4.20 September 2003 -6.10 2.72 October 2003 0.23 2.01 November 2003 8.92 2.38 December 2003 13.94 3.17 January 2004 11.78 6.72 February 2004 4.70 5.58 -10.08 4.91 April 2004 10.12 6.56 March 2004 May 2004 -5.68 4.13 June 2004 4.19 2.50 July 2004 7.31 1.76 August 2004 -2.42 0.57 September 2004 -3.33 1.70 3.65 0.62 34.83 7.37 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 7.31 7.89 13.15 8.86 February 2005 4.58 10.03 March 2005 2.96 11.08 April 2005 6.53 11.56 May 2005 2.10 6.10 June 2005 4.82 5.69 July 2005 7.78 4.79 August 2005 1.56 4.29 January 2005 22.03 7.47 October 2005 September 2005 9.60 7.98 November 2005 6.61 8.73 December 2005 10.32 9.65 January 2006 24.31 12.41 February 2006 18.50 15.23 March 2006 21.22 15.09 April 2006 8.99 14.99 May 2006 13.86 16.20 June 2006 -2.80 14.01 July 2006 12.67 7.88 August 2006 12.07 10.30 September 2006 15.38 9.33 October 2006 28.71 12.62 November 2006 11.20 12.17 December 2006 -11.05 10.80 January 2007 22.95 12.51 February 2007 12.17 13.23 9.07 12.17 April 2007 35.61 13.33 May 2007 42.72 18.58 June 2007 28.22 25.12 March 2007 July 2007 18.38 October 2007 15.83 2.52 September 2007 24.36 -39.01 August 2007 14.74 32.11 14.16 November 2007 4.27 7.75 December 2007 22.06 6.72 3.84 4.30 January 2008 February 2008 -3.66 10.19 March 2008 10.41 11.50 April 2008 -7.55 4.89 May 2008 5.05 5.02 U.S. Net Acquisitions (-) of Foreign Securities Figure: Total $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period Total 6-month moving average January 2003 -7.54 -6.94 February 2003 1.74 -5.87 -25.80 -9.23 March 2003 April 2003 -0.34 -8.40 May 2003 -14.56 -10.03 June 2003 -17.95 -10.74 July 2003 -3.12 -10.01 -17.69 -13.24 -6.94 -10.10 October 2003 -28.21 -14.75 November 2003 -16.51 -15.07 December 2003 -9.66 -13.69 January 2004 -17.42 -16.07 February 2004 -17.62 -16.06 -0.94 -15.06 April 2004 -20.27 -13.74 May 2004 -11.47 -12.90 June 2004 -13.05 -13.46 July 2004 -17.60 -13.49 -7.65 -11.83 August 2003 September 2003 March 2004 August 2004 September 2004 -28.62 -16.44 October 2004 -19.51 -16.32 November 2004 10.02 -12.73 December 2004 -26.10 -14.91 January 2005 -11.50 -13.89 February 2005 -19.81 -15.92 March 2005 -28.21 -15.85 April 2005 -14.95 -15.09 May 2005 -20.33 -20.15 June 2005 -21.87 -19.44 July 2005 -25.69 -21.81 August 2005 -8.38 -19.90 September 2005 -32.13 -20.56 October 2005 -11.73 -20.02 November 2005 -25.76 -20.92 December 2005 -30.04 -22.29 January 2006 -27.07 -22.52 February 2006 -19.25 -24.33 March 2006 -28.99 -23.81 April 2006 -26.92 -26.34 May 2006 -34.42 -27.78 June 2006 -18.43 -25.85 July 2006 -27.77 -25.96 August 2006 -11.64 -24.69 September 2006 -31.45 -25.10 October 2006 -24.55 -24.71 November 2006 -53.00 -27.81 December 2006 -58.88 -34.55 January 2007 -21.61 -33.52 February 2007 -25.48 -35.83 March 2007 -52.09 -39.26 April 2007 -20.90 -38.66 May 2007 -41.24 -36.70 June 2007 -21.99 -30.55 July 2007 -15.78 -29.58 August 2007 -36.87 -31.48 September 2007 -46.60 -30.56 October 2007 -8.33 -28.47 November 2007 18.85 -18.45 December 2007 -15.18 -17.32 January 2008 -20.03 -18.02 February 2008 -13.45 -14.12 -1.78 -6.65 March 2008 April 2008 8.71 -3.81 May 2008 -27.13 -11.47 Figure: Bonds $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period January 2003 Bonds 6-month moving average 0.29 -3.55 February 2003 6.86 -1.28 March 2003 -5.16 -1.48 April 2003 -1.56 -2.05 May 2003 -1.74 -1.88 -10.68 -2.00 6.47 -0.97 -2.17 -2.47 6.92 -0.46 October 2003 -15.53 -2.79 November 2003 -12.52 -4.59 December 2003 0.87 -2.66 -6.22 -4.77 -10.86 -6.22 -1.83 -7.68 April 2004 3.36 -4.53 May 2004 -3.97 -3.11 June 2004 -3.74 -3.87 July 2004 -7.43 -4.08 August 2004 -5.25 -3.14 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 September 2004 -23.08 -6.68 October 2004 -8.26 -8.62 November 2004 -6.66 -9.07 December 2004 -10.96 -10.27 January 2005 -3.21 -9.57 February 2005 -1.88 -9.01 March 2005 -8.20 -6.53 April 2005 -7.70 -6.44 May 2005 -12.77 -7.45 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 -6.54 -6.72 -10.38 -7.91 15.10 -5.08 -19.32 -6.93 0.75 -5.53 November 2005 -1.84 -3.70 December 2005 -7.12 -3.80 -10.65 -3.85 -6.62 -7.47 March 2006 -15.17 -6.77 April 2006 -14.32 -9.29 May 2006 -25.44 -13.22 June 2006 -17.70 -14.98 July 2006 -24.17 -17.23 August 2006 -16.82 -18.93 September 2006 -21.82 -20.04 October 2006 -15.67 -20.27 November 2006 -17.85 -19.01 December 2006 -38.23 -22.43 January 2007 -6.36 -19.46 February 2007 -9.97 -18.32 January 2006 February 2006 March 2007 -38.55 -21.11 April 2007 -16.86 -21.30 May 2007 -27.61 -22.93 June 2007 -12.49 -18.64 July 2007 0.16 -17.55 August 2007 -23.03 -19.73 September 2007 -19.75 -16.59 October 2007 -9.73 -15.41 November 2007 10.28 -9.09 December 2007 -14.13 -9.36 January 2008 -16.64 -12.16 February 2008 6.68 -7.21 March 2008 2.21 -3.55 April 2008 10.06 -0.26 May 2008 -9.89 -3.62 Figure: Stock Purchases & Swaps $ Billions, not seasonally adjusted Period Stock Purchases & Swaps 6-month moving average January 2003 -7.83 -3.40 February 2003 -5.13 -4.59 March 2003 -20.65 -7.75 April 2003 1.22 -6.35 May 2003 -12.82 -8.15 June 2003 -7.27 -8.75 July 2003 -9.58 -9.04 August 2003 -15.51 -10.77 September 2003 -13.86 -9.64 October 2003 -12.69 -11.95 November 2003 -3.98 -10.48 December 2003 -10.53 -11.03 January 2004 -11.21 -11.30 -6.77 -9.84 0.89 -7.38 April 2004 -23.63 -9.21 May 2004 -7.51 -9.79 June 2004 -9.31 -9.59 February 2004 March 2004 July 2004 -10.17 -9.41 August 2004 -2.40 -8.69 September 2004 -5.55 -9.76 October 2004 -11.25 -7.70 November 2004 16.69 -3.66 December 2004 -15.14 -4.64 -8.29 -4.32 February 2005 -17.93 -6.91 March 2005 -20.01 -9.32 -7.25 -8.65 January 2005 April 2005 May 2005 -7.56 -12.70 June 2005 -15.33 -12.73 July 2005 -15.31 -13.90 August 2005 -23.48 -14.82 September 2005 -12.81 -13.62 October 2005 -12.48 -14.49 November 2005 -23.92 -17.22 December 2005 -22.92 -18.49 January 2006 -16.42 -18.67 February 2006 -12.63 -16.86 March 2006 -13.82 -17.03 April 2006 -12.60 -17.05 May 2006 -8.99 -14.56 June 2006 -0.73 -10.86 July 2006 -3.60 -8.73 August 2006 5.18 -5.76 September 2006 -9.63 -5.06 October 2006 -8.87 -4.44 November 2006 -35.15 -8.80 December 2006 -20.64 -12.12 January 2007 -15.25 -14.06 February 2007 -15.51 -17.51 March 2007 -13.54 -18.16 April 2007 -4.04 -17.35 May 2007 -13.64 -13.77 June 2007 -9.49 -11.91 July 2007 -15.94 -12.03 August 2007 -13.84 -11.75 September 2007 -26.85 -13.97 October 2007 1.40 -13.06 November 2007 8.57 -9.36 December 2007 -1.05 -7.95 January 2008 -3.39 -5.86 -20.12 -6.91 -3.99 -3.10 April 2008 -1.35 -3.56 May 2008 -17.24 -7.86 February 2008 March 2008 Exchange Value of the Dollar and Stock Market Indexes Percent change since June Greenbook Latest Exchange rates* Euro ($/euro) Yen (¥/$) 1.5566 -0.4 108.2 0.1 Sterling ($/£) 1.9783 -1.1 Canadian dollar (C$/$) 1.0244 0.6 Broad index 95.8 -0.4 Major currencies index 71.7 -0.0 121.5 -0.8 Nominal dollar indexes* OITP index Stock market indexes DJ Euro Stoxx 316.1 -6.5 TOPIX 1303.0 -7.6 FTSE 100 5406.4 -6.1 S&P 500 1264.5 -6.4 * Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar. Return to table Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar Weekly January 5, 2004 = 100 Period 9 January 2004 16 January 2004 23 January 2004 30 January 2004 Major Currencies Index 99.71 Euro Yen 99.46 100.13 100.17 100.25 100.24 ND ND ND 101.31 101.19 99.75 6 February 2004 101.43 100.89 99.45 13 February 2004 100.30 99.41 99.46 20 February 2004 ND ND ND 27 February 2004 102.03 101.20 102.58 5 March 2004 103.33 103.33 103.98 12 March 2004 103.29 103.11 104.82 19 March 2004 103.01 103.30 102.01 26 March 2004 102.62 103.67 100.22 2 April 2004 101.86 103.76 98.69 9 April 2004 102.66 104.86 99.72 16 April 2004 104.10 105.89 101.27 23 April 2004 105.19 106.65 102.87 30 April 2004 105.41 106.50 103.34 7 May 2004 105.36 105.40 103.82 14 May 2004 107.25 107.02 107.34 21 May 2004 106.26 105.78 106.73 28 May 2004 104.91 104.49 105.09 4 June 2004 11 June 2004 ND ND ND 104.09 104.26 103.40 18 June 2004 104.86 105.00 103.52 25 June 2004 104.06 104.60 102.00 2 July 2004 103.46 104.00 102.24 9 July 2004 ND ND ND 16 July 2004 102.24 102.41 102.74 23 July 2004 102.58 103.21 103.03 30 July 2004 104.21 105.07 104.85 6 August 2004 103.73 104.85 104.53 13 August 2004 103.07 103.31 104.42 20 August 2004 102.35 102.83 103.50 27 August 2004 103.39 104.80 103.43 3 September 2004 103.35 104.57 103.38 10 September 2004 ND ND ND 17 September 2004 102.88 103.94 103.60 24 September 2004 102.40 103.50 103.95 1 October 2004 101.77 102.69 104.46 8 October 2004 101.72 102.93 104.48 15 October 2004 22 October 2004 ND ND ND 99.85 100.75 101.90 29 October 2004 98.29 99.41 100.29 5 November 2004 97.78 98.98 100.00 12 November 2004 ND ND ND 19 November 2004 96.38 97.54 98.41 26 November 2004 ND ND ND 3 December 2004 94.74 95.32 96.91 10 December 2004 95.61 95.17 98.12 17 December 2004 96.00 95.19 98.57 24 December 2004 95.65 94.35 97.95 31 December 2004 94.59 93.26 97.28 7 January 2005 96.24 95.61 98.18 14 January 2005 95.92 96.25 97.09 21 January 2005 ND ND ND 28 January 2005 96.98 97.32 97.33 4 February 2005 97.39 97.58 97.98 11 February 2005 98.37 98.90 99.46 18 February 2005 97.23 97.35 99.17 25 February 2005 ND ND ND 4 March 2005 96.58 96.11 98.55 11 March 2005 95.41 94.90 98.34 18 March 2005 95.31 94.95 98.57 25 March 2005 96.72 97.10 99.61 1 April 2005 97.53 98.14 101.19 8 April 2005 98.01 98.49 102.18 15 April 2005 98.20 98.27 101.64 22 April 2005 97.47 97.07 100.65 29 April 2005 97.81 97.95 99.58 6 May 2005 97.95 98.36 98.84 13 May 2005 98.59 99.26 100.02 20 May 2005 99.91 100.44 101.19 27 May 2005 100.10 100.87 101.55 3 June 2005 10 June 2005 ND ND ND 100.66 103.58 101.10 17 June 2005 101.44 104.78 102.96 24 June 2005 101.00 104.71 102.70 1 July 2005 101.49 104.99 104.08 8 July 2005 ND ND ND 15 July 2005 101.37 104.82 105.42 22 July 2005 101.79 105.11 105.46 29 July 2005 102.03 105.03 105.71 5 August 2005 100.65 103.17 105.13 12 August 2005 99.95 102.39 104.44 19 August 2005 100.15 103.39 103.60 26 August 2005 99.89 103.38 103.62 2 September 2005 99.50 102.65 104.18 9 September 2005 ND ND ND 16 September 2005 99.57 103.48 104.22 23 September 2005 99.78 104.32 105.18 30 September 2005 100.72 105.41 106.58 7 October 2005 100.94 105.55 107.37 14 October 2005 21 October 2005 ND ND ND 101.51 105.82 108.85 28 October 2005 100.96 104.93 108.66 4 November 2005 101.82 105.91 110.30 11 November 2005 18 November 2005 25 November 2005 ND ND ND 103.64 108.40 112.16 ND ND ND 2 December 2005 102.80 107.85 113.06 9 December 2005 102.39 107.55 113.74 16 December 2005 101.09 105.81 111.06 23 December 2005 101.83 106.73 109.96 30 December 2005 6 January 2006 13 January 2006 20 January 2006 ND ND ND ND ND ND 100.48 104.96 107.82 ND ND ND 27 January 2006 99.74 103.63 109.02 3 February 2006 100.42 104.85 111.12 10 February 2006 101.31 106.08 111.58 17 February 2006 101.62 106.60 111.09 24 February 2006 ND ND ND 3 March 2006 100.64 106.17 109.43 10 March 2006 101.55 106.35 111.24 17 March 2006 101.01 105.03 110.59 24 March 2006 101.26 105.03 110.33 31 March 2006 101.41 104.97 110.56 7 April 2006 100.81 103.97 111.00 14 April 2006 100.86 104.72 111.75 21 April 2006 99.60 103.00 110.73 28 April 2006 98.17 101.60 107.88 5 May 2006 96.58 100.14 106.63 12 May 2006 95.55 99.04 104.46 19 May 2006 95.90 99.20 104.34 99.12 105.61 26 May 2006 96.11 2 June 2006 ND 9 June 2006 96.35 ND ND 99.27 106.77 16 June 2006 97.15 100.58 108.25 23 June 2006 97.54 100.77 108.81 30 June 2006 97.72 100.65 109.28 7 July 2006 ND ND ND 14 July 2006 97.41 99.80 108.45 21 July 2006 98.21 100.77 110.23 28 July 2006 97.84 100.13 109.54 4 August 2006 96.79 99.04 108.09 11 August 2006 96.55 98.88 108.72 18 August 2006 96.70 98.95 109.22 25 August 2006 96.60 99.00 109.82 1 September 2006 96.59 99.05 110.41 8 September 2006 ND ND ND 15 September 2006 97.38 99.86 110.85 22 September 2006 97.26 99.71 110.48 29 September 2006 97.18 99.81 110.64 6 October 2006 97.62 99.92 111.23 13 October 2006 ND ND ND 20 October 2006 98.42 100.94 111.98 27 October 2006 97.91 100.48 111.96 3 November 2006 97.25 99.45 110.54 10 November 2006 97.18 99.07 111.02 17 November 2006 97.54 98.96 111.17 24 November 2006 ND ND ND 1 December 2006 95.68 96.05 109.22 8 December 2006 95.53 95.37 108.72 15 December 2006 96.39 96.14 110.66 22 December 2006 96.66 96.41 111.52 29 December 2006 ND 5 January 2007 ND 12 January 2007 98.11 19 January 2007 ND 26 January 2007 98.28 ND ND ND ND 97.85 112.78 ND ND 97.78 114.30 2 February 2007 98.34 97.71 114.27 9 February 2007 98.26 97.59 113.88 16 February 2007 97.66 96.95 113.58 23 February 2007 ND ND ND 2 March 2007 96.96 96.07 111.61 9 March 2007 97.36 96.64 110.16 16 March 2007 96.86 95.81 110.24 23 March 2007 96.36 95.25 110.90 30 March 2007 96.09 95.00 110.80 6 April 2007 96.02 94.75 111.82 13 April 2007 95.61 94.28 112.34 20 April 2007 94.62 93.37 112.02 27 April 2007 94.32 93.14 112.10 4 May 2007 94.23 93.21 113.05 11 May 2007 94.39 93.60 113.14 18 May 2007 94.36 93.68 113.80 94.22 114.56 25 May 2007 94.26 1 June 2007 ND 8 June 2007 93.54 ND ND 94.17 114.47 15 June 2007 94.28 95.11 115.44 22 June 2007 94.19 94.51 116.57 29 June 2007 93.91 94.15 116.16 6 July 2007 ND ND ND 13 July 2007 92.43 92.34 115.39 20 July 2007 91.86 91.85 114.85 27 July 2007 91.85 92.24 113.08 3 August 2007 92.23 92.48 111.98 10 August 2007 91.97 92.24 111.78 17 August 2007 92.83 93.81 109.65 24 August 2007 92.40 93.66 108.54 31 August 2007 92.06 92.91 108.94 7 September 2007 91.78 92.70 108.59 14 September 2007 90.77 91.52 107.88 21 September 2007 89.94 90.77 108.70 28 September 2007 89.00 89.67 108.54 5 October 2007 88.81 89.53 109.69 12 October 2007 88.50 89.54 110.50 19 October 2007 88.03 89.11 109.59 26 October 2007 87.54 88.90 107.59 2 November 2007 86.47 87.79 108.25 9 November 2007 85.18 86.79 106.67 16 November 2007 ND ND ND 23 November 2007 86.08 85.75 102.80 30 November 2007 86.35 85.81 103.33 7 December 2007 87.25 86.39 104.38 14 December 2007 87.76 86.68 105.81 21 December 2007 88.45 88.27 106.83 28 December 2007 ND ND ND 4 January 2008 ND ND ND 11 January 2008 87.22 86.15 102.97 18 January 2008 87.28 86.06 101.10 25 January 2008 ND ND ND 1 February 2008 86.24 85.63 100.66 8 February 2008 86.85 86.71 100.77 15 February 2008 86.90 86.87 101.39 22 February 2008 ND 29 February 2008 85.11 84.31 100.25 ND ND 7 March 2008 84.25 83.01 97.27 14 March 2008 83.52 81.93 95.73 21 March 2008 83.38 81.23 92.86 28 March 2008 83.72 80.96 94.16 4 April 2008 83.97 80.82 95.82 11 April 2008 83.89 80.49 96.10 18 April 2008 83.55 79.97 96.21 25 April 2008 83.83 80.16 97.64 2 May 2008 84.63 81.58 98.32 9 May 2008 84.70 82.05 98.36 16 May 2008 84.39 81.70 98.38 23 May 2008 83.53 80.82 97.79 30 May 2008 ND ND ND 6 June 2008 84.67 81.54 99.16 13 June 2008 85.38 81.76 101.01 20 June 2008 85.31 81.67 101.72 27 June 2008 84.85 81.13 101.32 4 July 2008 84.45 80.47 100.14 11 July 2008 84.54 80.54 100.88 18 July 2008 83.66 79.84 25 July 2008 84.42 80.51 101.23 Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar Daily June 18, 2008 = 100 Date Major Currencies Index Euro Yen 1 April 2008 98.84 99.28 94.19 2 April 2008 98.68 99.26 95.11 3 April 2008 98.10 98.95 94.60 4 April 2008 97.88 98.52 94.17 7 April 2008 98.19 98.66 94.97 8 April 2008 98.40 98.71 94.91 9 April 2008 98.13 98.09 94.24 10 April 2008 98.19 98.46 94.13 11 April 2008 98.10 98.14 93.56 14 April 2008 97.92 97.95 93.35 15 April 2008 98.07 98.11 93.78 16 April 2008 97.09 97.02 93.85 17 April 2008 97.58 97.35 94.60 18 April 2008 98.37 98.48 96.77 21 April 2008 97.79 97.61 95.68 22 April 2008 97.17 96.83 95.05 23 April 2008 98.18 97.51 95.84 24 April 2008 98.71 98.94 96.44 25 April 2008 98.85 99.16 96.41 28 April 2008 98.78 99.07 96.53 29 April 2008 98.71 99.35 95.70 30 April 2008 98.83 99.58 96.74 1 May 2008 99.38 100.28 96.29 2 May 2008 99.67 100.46 97.48 5 May 2008 99.32 100.07 97.29 6 May 2008 98.75 99.70 96.75 7 May 2008 99.37 100.86 97.44 8 May 2008 99.41 100.60 96.13 9 May 2008 98.90 100.36 95.34 12 May 2008 98.70 99.78 96.09 13 May 2008 98.82 99.95 96.63 14 May 2008 99.17 100.23 97.36 15 May 2008 98.91 100.06 96.82 16 May 2008 98.36 96.12 99.43 19 May 2008 98.55 99.91 96.76 20 May 2008 97.94 98.95 95.94 21 May 2008 97.37 98.29 95.64 22 May 2008 97.68 98.72 96.28 23 May 2008 97.38 98.21 95.53 26 May 2008 ND ND ND 27 May 2008 97.83 98.54 96.23 99.56 28 May 2008 98.13 99.19 96.89 29 May 2008 98.42 99.84 97.66 30 May 2008 98.52 99.63 97.60 2 June 2008 98.65 99.69 96.63 3 June 2008 99.16 100.31 97.45 4 June 2008 99.42 100.32 97.17 5 June 2008 99.49 98.10 99.63 6 June 2008 98.85 98.54 97.48 9 June 2008 99.11 98.63 98.16 100.09 100.19 99.20 10 June 2008 11 June 2008 99.52 99.61 98.82 12 June 2008 100.40 100.54 99.90 13 June 2008 100.65 100.87 99.88 16 June 2008 100.14 100.19 100.13 17 June 2008 100.02 18 June 2008 100.00 100.00 100.00 19 June 2008 99.89 99.74 100.00 99.98 99.91 20 June 2008 99.45 99.21 99.42 23 June 2008 99.91 100.06 99.85 24 June 2008 99.49 99.73 99.43 25 June 2008 99.66 99.56 100.22 26 June 2008 98.92 98.50 99.30 27 June 2008 98.67 98.43 98.36 30 June 2008 98.89 98.44 98.26 1 July 2008 98.83 98.25 97.85 2 July 2008 98.35 97.69 97.98 3 July 2008 99.17 98.69 98.83 4 July 2008 99.08 98.88 98.71 7 July 2008 99.44 99.08 99.54 8 July 2008 99.50 99.04 99.35 9 July 2008 98.88 98.46 99.14 10 July 2008 98.80 98.29 99.06 11 July 2008 98.23 97.51 98.23 14 July 2008 98.08 97.41 98.27 15 July 2008 97.60 97.36 96.97 16 July 2008 97.81 97.82 96.84 17 July 2008 97.96 97.74 97.94 18 July 2008 98.26 97.77 98.80 21 July 2008 98.11 97.64 98.79 22 July 2008 98.56 98.05 99.13 23 July 2008 98.92 98.69 99.66 24 July 2008 99.21 99.01 99.60 25 July 2008 99.33 98.82 99.85 99.48 28 July 2008 99.23 98.44 29 July 2008 99.96 99.45 100.13 30 July 2008 99.98 99.59 100.09 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. Figure: Stock Market Indexes Weekly January 5, 2004 = 100 Period 9 January 2004 DJ Euro Stoxx TOPIX S&P 500 99.93 99.88 101.51 16 January 2004 100.82 ND 101.96 23 January 2004 102.65 101.41 ND 30 January 2004 102.34 99.87 6 February 2004 101.06 97.63 102.29 13 February 2004 102.63 ND 103.58 20 February 2004 103.49 99.55 ND 27 February 2004 102.93 100.20 103.09 5 March 2004 104.73 105.61 104.07 12 March 2004 103.29 106.19 101.74 19 March 2004 99.34 107.11 100.52 26 March 2004 97.89 108.52 99.20 2 April 2004 101.01 111.30 101.94 9 April 2004 ND 113.58 ND 16 April 2004 ND 113.92 102.23 23 April 2004 103.41 113.44 102.10 30 April 2004 102.58 ND 101.35 7 May 2004 100.88 102.72 ND 100.52 14 May 2004 97.64 103.57 98.73 21 May 2004 97.50 103.24 98.28 28 May 2004 98.68 106.57 100.41 4 June 2004 ND 107.00 ND 11 June 2004 101.06 109.25 ND 18 June 2004 100.85 109.42 102.08 25 June 2004 101.25 110.01 102.55 2 July 2004 101.84 111.90 102.21 9 July 2004 100.28 108.17 ND 16 July 2004 99.20 109.20 100.12 23 July 2004 97.97 ND 98.99 30 July 2004 97.67 106.37 98.81 6 August 2004 97.57 105.79 98.33 13 August 2004 94.71 104.66 96.49 20 August 2004 95.60 103.62 98.26 27 August 2004 97.48 106.28 99.41 3 September 2004 98.43 107.00 99.98 10 September 2004 99.87 107.49 ND 17 September 2004 100.99 106.70 101.52 24 September 2004 100.68 ND 100.74 1 October 2004 100.22 103.76 100.58 8 October 2004 102.90 107.82 102.20 15 October 2004 101.62 ND 100.52 22 October 2004 101.41 103.49 99.65 29 October 2004 101.23 101.95 100.84 5 November 2004 103.81 ND 103.42 12 November 2004 105.03 103.85 105.54 19 November 2004 105.67 105.35 106.36 26 November 2004 105.35 ND ND 3 December 2004 106.00 103.98 106.91 10 December 2004 106.11 103.28 106.95 17 December 2004 106.80 103.86 108.35 24 December 2004 31 December 2004 ND ND ND ND ND 109.29 7 January 2005 108.81 ND 107.32 14 January 2005 108.37 ND 106.87 21 January 2005 108.81 107.75 ND 28 January 2005 108.97 107.74 105.59 4 February 2005 111.00 108.40 107.48 11 February 2005 112.74 ND 108.23 18 February 2005 113.66 110.11 108.78 25 February 2005 112.62 109.67 ND 4 March 2005 113.74 111.89 109.28 11 March 2005 113.64 113.15 109.36 18 March 2005 112.52 112.98 107.76 25 March 2005 ND ND ND 1 April 2005 ND 111.57 105.99 8 April 2005 113.51 112.70 106.70 15 April 2005 113.31 110.76 105.50 22 April 2005 109.48 106.18 103.72 29 April 2005 109.12 ND 104.11 6 May 2005 109.98 ND 105.42 13 May 2005 110.37 108.08 105.18 20 May 2005 111.55 105.87 106.55 27 May 2005 113.23 106.79 107.79 3 June 2005 114.63 108.26 ND 10 June 2005 115.39 108.08 108.05 17 June 2005 116.74 109.37 108.96 24 June 2005 117.27 110.68 108.90 1 July 2005 117.23 110.80 107.86 8 July 2005 118.40 111.63 ND 15 July 2005 120.14 112.21 110.41 22 July 2005 121.58 ND 110.90 29 July 2005 122.32 113.03 111.41 5 August 2005 122.80 113.81 111.63 12 August 2005 123.47 115.49 111.00 19 August 2005 122.50 118.12 110.28 26 August 2005 121.76 120.08 109.45 2 September 2005 121.24 120.18 109.71 9 September 2005 124.02 121.52 ND 16 September 2005 124.36 124.53 111.23 23 September 2005 124.35 ND 109.92 30 September 2005 126.47 132.30 110.14 7 October 2005 126.98 131.95 108.71 14 October 2005 124.92 ND 106.69 21 October 2005 122.34 130.98 106.84 28 October 2005 121.50 132.61 107.62 4 November 2005 123.70 109.42 ND 11 November 2005 125.12 140.96 110.56 18 November 2005 126.45 141.29 111.60 25 November 2005 128.11 ND ND 2 December 2005 128.77 146.70 113.56 9 December 2005 130.17 150.10 113.64 16 December 2005 130.84 151.28 114.37 23 December 2005 132.44 114.01 30 December 2005 ND ND 155.89 ND 6 January 2006 135.05 ND ND 13 January 2006 136.15 ND 116.33 20 January 2006 134.61 153.37 ND 27 January 2006 135.12 153.97 114.62 3 February 2006 138.54 161.06 115.16 10 February 2006 139.12 159.39 113.96 17 February 2006 140.83 153.25 115.38 24 February 2006 143.08 152.64 ND 3 March 2006 142.95 154.83 116.24 10 March 2006 142.06 153.70 115.23 17 March 2006 145.10 157.06 117.23 24 March 2006 146.38 ND 117.49 31 March 2006 145.92 161.53 117.15 7 April 2006 146.99 166.38 117.64 14 April 2006 ND 165.79 ND 21 April 2006 ND 164.54 117.74 28 April 2006 147.43 162.41 5 May 2006 ND 117.92 ND 118.44 12 May 2006 147.43 162.93 118.54 19 May 2006 139.51 155.89 115.22 26 May 2006 136.74 151.08 114.22 2 June 2006 138.16 151.08 ND 9 June 2006 134.28 144.98 113.59 16 June 2006 130.95 140.81 111.83 23 June 2006 133.82 144.25 112.27 30 June 2006 135.15 146.57 113.29 7 July 2006 138.56 149.79 ND 14 July 2006 136.62 147.62 113.25 21 July 2006 134.38 ND 112.24 28 July 2006 138.41 144.87 114.39 4 August 2006 139.66 148.25 115.22 11 August 2006 139.37 148.10 114.60 18 August 2006 142.54 153.14 116.36 25 August 2006 142.99 153.90 116.93 1 September 2006 144.57 152.91 117.73 8 September 2006 144.01 154.43 ND 15 September 2006 144.32 150.29 118.48 22 September 2006 145.59 ND 119.04 29 September 2006 147.55 149.45 120.42 6 October 2006 149.07 153.21 121.22 13 October 2006 151.49 122.37 ND 20 October 2006 152.24 154.91 27 October 2006 153.66 156.58 124.55 3 November 2006 153.07 ND 123.69 10 November 2006 155.60 151.11 124.63 17 November 2006 156.81 149.44 125.85 24 November 2006 156.76 ND ND 1 December 2006 153.19 149.13 125.68 8 December 2006 154.54 152.24 127.27 15 December 2006 157.95 155.11 127.93 22 December 2006 158.86 157.15 128.11 29 December 2006 ND 158.16 ND 5 January 2007 123.32 ND ND ND 12 January 2007 160.58 ND 128.00 19 January 2007 162.07 161.37 ND 26 January 2007 162.38 163.50 128.77 2 February 2007 163.76 163.71 129.58 9 February 2007 165.59 163.22 130.47 16 February 2007 166.22 ND 130.72 23 February 2007 166.93 169.36 ND 2 March 2007 161.41 167.00 127.12 9 March 2007 158.76 160.46 125.69 16 March 2007 157.64 160.78 125.41 23 March 2007 162.50 ND 128.44 30 March 2007 164.23 162.43 128.59 6 April 2007 ND 161.57 ND 13 April 2007 ND 163.26 130.49 20 April 2007 171.72 162.22 132.93 27 April 2007 172.23 160.60 4 May 2007 ND 134.33 ND 134.83 11 May 2007 173.21 163.76 135.81 18 May 2007 173.86 161.63 136.29 25 May 2007 175.55 163.10 137.03 1 June 2007 ND 164.68 ND 8 June 2007 174.40 167.40 136.87 15 June 2007 174.25 165.97 136.65 22 June 2007 176.56 168.46 137.17 29 June 2007 174.14 166.15 135.43 6 July 2007 176.38 168.32 ND 13 July 2007 176.46 168.00 138.22 20 July 2007 176.34 ND 139.51 27 July 2007 170.39 164.58 135.54 3 August 2007 166.64 159.07 131.72 10 August 2007 165.55 157.04 132.59 17 August 2007 161.75 149.43 128.89 24 August 2007 163.18 147.23 131.69 31 August 2007 164.73 149.32 131.61 7 September 2007 165.90 149.15 ND 14 September 2007 163.15 144.54 132.85 21 September 2007 166.60 136.58 ND 28 September 2007 168.82 5 October 2007 171.94 155.47 139.54 12 October 2007 173.81 ND 140.67 19 October 2007 172.41 152.83 138.37 26 October 2007 170.88 147.68 136.97 2 November 2007 172.96 152.40 137.84 9 November 2007 169.32 145.76 133.99 16 November 2007 166.31 139.37 131.72 23 November 2007 161.84 ND ND 30 November 2007 164.86 141.04 130.91 7 December 2007 168.16 145.20 134.10 14 December 2007 169.30 145.42 134.18 21 December 2007 164.90 138.36 131.68 28 December 2007 ND ND ND ND 4 January 2008 137.46 ND ND ND 11 January 2008 160.66 132.18 126.96 18 January 2008 154.42 123.21 25 January 2008 142.47 120.73 ND 1 February 2008 146.35 125.12 123.52 8 February 2008 144.27 124.85 121.10 ND 15 February 2008 144.75 ND 121.86 22 February 2008 145.85 125.35 ND 29 February 2008 146.99 127.38 123.26 7 March 2008 140.77 119.66 118.89 14 March 2008 138.76 115.65 117.39 21 March 2008 ND ND ND 28 March 2008 ND 116.62 120.62 4 April 2008 144.37 119.25 122.69 11 April 2008 144.98 120.45 122.44 18 April 2008 143.63 120.33 122.39 25 April 2008 145.55 124.74 125.05 2 May 2008 ND ND 126.23 9 May 2008 149.35 ND 126.38 16 May 2008 149.47 129.64 127.46 23 May 2008 148.18 130.89 126.32 30 May 2008 145.77 129.37 ND 6 June 2008 144.19 134.38 124.59 13 June 2008 138.69 130.42 121.89 20 June 2008 136.44 131.18 121.06 27 June 2008 131.71 126.70 117.56 4 July 2008 127.38 123.46 ND 11 July 2008 125.66 121.97 113.01 18 July 2008 123.04 118.97 112.04 25 July 2008 127.85 114.20 ND Figure: Stock Market Indexes Daily June 18, 2008 = 100 Date 1 April 2008 DJ Euro Stoxx TOPIX S&P 500 105.90 87.29 101.42 2 April 2008 107.02 90.95 101.23 3 April 2008 106.27 92.20 101.36 4 April 2008 106.78 91.44 101.44 7 April 2008 107.74 92.62 101.60 8 April 2008 106.97 90.99 101.08 9 April 2008 106.16 89.59 100.26 10 April 2008 105.65 88.54 100.71 11 April 2008 104.29 90.71 98.66 14 April 2008 103.47 88.41 98.33 15 April 2008 103.92 89.10 98.78 16 April 2008 105.76 90.23 101.02 17 April 2008 105.20 91.75 101.08 18 April 2008 107.51 92.51 102.92 21 April 2008 106.53 94.46 102.76 22 April 2008 105.74 93.04 101.85 23 April 2008 106.60 93.24 102.15 24 April 2008 106.50 92.76 102.80 25 April 2008 107.50 95.05 103.47 28 April 2008 108.13 96.60 103.36 29 April 2008 107.43 ND 102.96 30 April 2008 108.30 96.38 102.57 1 May 2008 ND 95.49 104.32 2 May 2008 109.87 97.71 104.66 5 May 2008 109.77 ND 104.19 6 May 2008 109.10 ND 104.98 7 May 2008 110.00 98.84 103.08 8 May 2008 109.64 97.40 103.46 9 May 2008 108.27 95.18 102.76 12 May 2008 108.63 95.26 103.90 13 May 2008 108.79 96.48 103.86 14 May 2008 109.82 97.40 104.27 15 May 2008 109.80 98.81 105.38 16 May 2008 110.19 99.02 105.51 19 May 2008 110.95 99.62 105.60 20 May 2008 108.97 99.30 104.62 21 May 2008 108.13 97.19 102.94 22 May 2008 108.16 97.87 103.21 23 May 2008 106.30 97.66 101.85 26 May 2008 106.18 95.36 ND 27 May 2008 105.81 97.06 102.55 28 May 2008 106.84 95.68 102.95 29 May 2008 107.00 97.94 103.50 30 May 2008 107.84 99.89 103.66 2 June 2008 106.32 101.10 102.57 3 June 2008 106.86 99.84 101.98 4 June 2008 105.82 101.48 101.94 5 June 2008 105.65 101.05 103.93 6 June 2008 103.27 101.31 100.72 9 June 2008 102.83 100.80 99.14 10 June 2008 102.06 98.12 100.56 11 June 2008 100.25 98.61 98.86 12 June 2008 101.10 96.70 99.18 13 June 2008 101.53 97.30 100.67 16 June 2008 100.98 99.44 100.68 17 June 2008 101.59 99.46 100.00 18 June 2008 100.00 100.00 99.03 19 June 2008 99.31 97.59 99.40 20 June 2008 97.64 96.25 97.56 23 June 2008 97.34 95.62 97.56 24 June 2008 96.49 95.71 97.29 25 June 2008 98.06 95.49 97.86 26 June 2008 95.45 95.40 94.98 27 June 2008 94.86 93.69 94.63 30 June 2008 95.10 93.65 94.75 1 July 2008 93.09 93.65 95.11 2 July 2008 92.66 92.30 93.38 3 July 2008 93.49 92.08 93.48 4 July 2008 92.02 92.07 ND 7 July 2008 93.50 93.13 92.70 8 July 2008 91.95 91.05 94.28 9 July 2008 93.58 91.20 92.14 10 July 2008 91.78 91.57 92.78 11 July 2008 89.24 91.22 91.75 14 July 2008 89.88 90.85 90.92 15 July 2008 87.71 88.90 89.93 16 July 2008 88.73 88.62 92.19 17 July 2008 91.26 89.64 93.29 18 July 2008 92.88 88.85 93.32 21 July 2008 93.47 ND 93.27 22 July 2008 93.03 91.35 94.53 23 July 2008 94.83 92.46 94.91 24 July 2008 93.42 94.53 92.72 25 July 2008 93.33 92.10 93.10 28 July 2008 92.13 92.28 91.37 29 July 2008 92.34 90.92 93.51 30 July 2008 93.48 92.43 93.60 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. Industrial Countries: Nominal and Real Interest Rates Percent 3-month LIBOR 10-year nominal Change since June Greenbook Latest 10-year indexed Change since June Greenbook Latest Change since June Greenbook Latest Germany 4.96 0.00 4.45 -0.17 2.14 -0.07 Japan 0.90 -0.02 1.54 -0.25 1.16 -0.14 United Kingdom 5.78 -0.16 4.87 -0.28 1.51 0.20 Canada 3.34 -0.06 3.82 -0.03 … … United States 2.80 -0.01 Figure: Nominal 10-Year Government Bond Yields Weekly Percent Period 2 January 2004 Germany Japan United States ND 1.36 ND 9 January 2004 4.25 1.38 4.27 16 January 2004 4.15 ND 4.04 23 January 2004 4.15 1.32 ND 30 January 2004 4.19 1.32 4.17 6 February 2004 4.19 1.29 4.16 13 February 2004 4.13 1.25 4.08 20 February 2004 4.10 1.24 ND 27 February 2004 4.09 1.22 4.03 5 March 2004 4.06 1.37 4.00 12 March 2004 3.91 1.32 3.75 19 March 2004 3.89 1.32 3.75 26 March 2004 3.87 1.34 3.76 2 April 2004 3.97 1.44 3.95 9 April 2004 4.08 1.49 ND 16 April 2004 4.13 1.52 4.36 23 April 2004 4.16 1.53 4.43 30 April 2004 4.18 1.52 4.49 7 May 2004 4.19 ND 4.62 14 May 2004 4.30 1.51 4.81 21 May 2004 4.31 1.46 4.74 28 May 2004 4.31 1.47 4.68 4 June 2004 4.38 1.56 ND 11 June 2004 4.39 1.74 ND 18 June 2004 4.39 1.85 4.75 25 June 2004 4.34 1.88 4.69 2 July 2004 4.33 1.84 4.63 9 July 2004 4.24 1.79 ND 16 July 2004 4.24 1.77 4.47 23 July 2004 4.24 1.78 4.46 30 July 2004 4.27 1.83 4.56 6 August 2004 4.16 1.78 4.41 13 August 2004 4.07 1.62 4.28 20 August 2004 4.07 1.55 4.23 27 August 2004 4.09 1.58 4.25 3 September 2004 4.07 1.52 4.19 10 September 2004 4.12 1.58 ND 17 September 2004 4.06 1.50 4.14 24 September 2004 3.99 ND 4.04 1 October 2004 3.98 1.42 4.10 8 October 2004 4.01 1.57 4.20 15 October 2004 3.92 1.48 ND 22 October 2004 3.89 1.46 4.03 29 October 2004 3.85 1.44 4.05 4.09 -0.14 1.79 -0.01 5 November 2004 3.88 ND 4.12 12 November 2004 3.86 1.49 ND 19 November 2004 3.77 1.46 4.17 26 November 2004 3.76 ND ND 3 December 2004 3.79 1.44 4.35 10 December 2004 3.67 1.42 4.19 17 December 2004 3.59 1.37 4.16 24 December 2004 3.61 ND ND 31 December 2004 3.66 ND 4.29 7 January 2005 3.64 ND 4.28 14 January 2005 3.58 ND 4.25 21 January 2005 3.55 1.36 ND 28 January 2005 3.56 1.34 4.19 4 February 2005 3.53 1.31 4.14 11 February 2005 3.46 ND 4.06 18 February 2005 3.55 1.42 4.16 25 February 2005 3.69 1.41 ND 4 March 2005 3.74 1.49 4.37 11 March 2005 3.74 1.49 4.45 18 March 2005 3.72 1.46 4.51 25 March 2005 3.71 ND ND 1 April 2005 3.66 1.35 4.55 8 April 2005 3.59 1.36 4.48 15 April 2005 3.53 1.33 4.37 22 April 2005 3.47 1.27 4.26 29 April 2005 3.42 ND 4.24 6 May 2005 3.40 ND 4.22 13 May 2005 3.36 1.28 4.21 20 May 2005 3.32 1.28 4.11 27 May 2005 3.33 1.26 4.07 3 June 2005 3.26 1.23 ND 10 June 2005 3.16 1.23 3.97 17 June 2005 3.26 1.26 4.10 24 June 2005 3.19 1.25 4.00 1 July 2005 3.14 1.18 3.97 8 July 2005 3.20 1.23 ND 15 July 2005 3.26 1.26 4.16 22 July 2005 3.27 1.26 4.22 29 July 2005 3.23 1.28 4.25 5 August 2005 3.33 1.36 4.34 12 August 2005 3.34 1.43 4.36 19 August 2005 3.24 ND 4.24 26 August 2005 3.17 1.43 4.20 2 September 2005 3.12 1.34 4.09 9 September 2005 3.06 1.33 ND 16 September 2005 3.11 1.36 4.19 23 September 2005 3.06 ND 4.23 30 September 2005 3.13 1.44 4.30 7 October 2005 3.18 1.51 4.37 14 October 2005 3.21 ND ND 21 October 2005 3.27 1.53 4.46 28 October 2005 3.35 1.52 4.55 4 November 2005 3.45 ND 4.61 11 November 2005 3.50 1.59 ND 18 November 2005 3.48 1.48 4.52 25 November 2005 3.46 ND ND 2 December 2005 3.42 1.46 4.48 9 December 2005 3.41 1.55 4.52 16 December 2005 3.38 1.55 4.49 23 December 2005 3.35 ND 4.45 ND ND ND 6 January 2006 30 December 2005 3.30 ND ND 13 January 2006 3.28 ND 4.41 20 January 2006 ND ND ND 27 January 2006 3.43 1.48 4.46 3 February 2006 3.49 1.56 4.55 10 February 2006 3.49 1.56 4.56 17 February 2006 3.49 1.55 4.59 24 February 2006 3.45 1.54 ND 3 March 2006 3.54 1.61 4.61 10 March 2006 3.63 1.63 4.74 17 March 2006 3.68 1.71 4.71 24 March 2006 3.66 1.73 4.69 31 March 2006 3.74 1.75 4.80 7 April 2006 3.86 1.86 4.89 14 April 2006 3.91 1.91 ND 21 April 2006 3.95 1.93 5.02 28 April 2006 3.97 1.94 5.07 5 May 2006 4.00 ND 5.14 12 May 2006 4.04 1.98 5.14 19 May 2006 4.02 1.95 5.11 26 May 2006 3.90 1.84 5.05 2 June 2006 3.95 1.88 ND 9 June 2006 3.97 1.87 5.01 16 June 2006 3.91 1.80 5.05 23 June 2006 4.03 1.85 5.18 30 June 2006 4.08 1.91 5.22 7 July 2006 4.10 1.96 ND 14 July 2006 4.05 1.93 5.10 21 July 2006 3.99 ND 5.07 28 July 2006 3.95 1.88 5.05 4 August 2006 3.93 1.90 4.96 11 August 2006 3.93 1.86 4.94 18 August 2006 3.95 1.85 4.90 25 August 2006 3.82 1.79 4.81 1 September 2006 3.79 1.67 4.76 8 September 2006 3.79 1.71 ND 15 September 2006 3.80 1.67 4.79 22 September 2006 3.77 ND 4.71 29 September 2006 3.68 1.64 4.60 6 October 2006 3.72 1.71 4.62 13 October 2006 3.80 ND ND 20 October 2006 3.83 1.79 4.78 27 October 2006 3.86 1.78 4.77 3 November 2006 3.75 ND 4.64 10 November 2006 3.75 1.73 4.64 17 November 2006 3.73 1.70 4.61 24 November 2006 3.72 ND ND 1 December 2006 3.70 1.65 4.49 8 December 2006 3.70 1.65 4.48 15 December 2006 3.76 1.64 4.56 22 December 2006 3.86 1.63 4.60 29 December 2006 3.92 1.63 ND 5 January 2007 3.95 ND ND 12 January 2007 4.02 ND 4.70 19 January 2007 4.05 1.71 ND 26 January 2007 4.05 1.66 4.83 2 February 2007 4.10 1.71 4.86 9 February 2007 4.05 ND 4.77 16 February 2007 4.09 ND 4.75 23 February 2007 4.06 1.69 ND 2 March 2007 3.96 1.65 4.55 9 March 2007 3.93 1.62 4.53 16 March 2007 3.91 1.60 4.54 23 March 2007 3.94 1.58 4.58 30 March 2007 4.03 1.65 4.63 6 April 2007 4.09 1.67 4.68 13 April 2007 4.16 1.67 4.74 20 April 2007 4.19 1.69 4.69 27 April 2007 4.19 ND 4.67 4 May 2007 4.19 ND 4.65 11 May 2007 4.21 1.65 4.65 18 May 2007 4.30 1.65 4.74 25 May 2007 4.36 1.68 4.84 1 June 2007 4.42 ND ND 8 June 2007 4.51 1.84 5.02 15 June 2007 4.62 1.92 5.20 22 June 2007 4.64 1.90 5.14 29 June 2007 4.58 1.87 5.09 6 July 2007 4.60 1.89 ND 13 July 2007 4.61 1.92 5.10 20 July 2007 4.54 ND 5.03 27 July 2007 4.39 1.84 4.88 3 August 2007 4.34 1.79 4.77 10 August 2007 4.37 1.75 4.79 17 August 2007 4.32 ND 4.70 24 August 2007 4.27 1.59 4.62 31 August 2007 4.24 1.61 4.55 7 September 2007 4.22 1.62 ND 14 September 2007 4.13 1.54 4.42 21 September 2007 4.27 ND 4.57 28 September 2007 4.36 ND 4.61 5 October 2007 4.32 1.69 4.57 12 October 2007 4.37 ND ND 19 October 2007 4.36 1.66 4.57 26 October 2007 4.17 1.60 4.39 2 November 2007 4.20 1.62 4.39 9 November 2007 4.14 1.56 4.32 16 November 2007 4.12 1.51 ND 23 November 2007 4.04 ND ND 30 November 2007 4.07 1.49 3.94 7 December 2007 4.08 1.50 3.97 14 December 2007 4.28 1.54 4.12 21 December 2007 4.28 1.52 4.12 28 December 2007 4.31 ND ND 4 January 2008 4.23 ND ND 11 January 2008 4.11 1.45 3.85 18 January 2008 4.00 ND 3.72 25 January 2008 3.95 1.38 ND 1 February 2008 3.96 1.44 3.67 8 February 2008 3.88 1.44 3.66 15 February 2008 3.94 ND 3.72 22 February 2008 4.01 1.46 ND 29 February 2008 4.02 1.44 3.78 7 March 2008 3.82 1.36 3.61 14 March 2008 3.76 1.31 3.51 21 March 2008 3.74 ND ND 28 March 2008 3.88 1.27 3.52 4 April 2008 3.96 1.34 3.55 11 April 2008 3.99 1.34 3.54 18 April 2008 4.02 1.35 3.67 25 April 2008 4.15 1.49 3.81 2 May 2008 4.16 ND 3.83 9 May 2008 4.11 ND 3.85 16 May 2008 4.13 1.65 3.86 23 May 2008 4.25 1.67 3.84 30 May 2008 4.36 1.78 ND 6 June 2008 4.41 1.75 3.98 13 June 2008 4.56 1.80 4.15 20 June 2008 4.63 1.81 4.20 27 June 2008 4.57 1.68 4.09 4 July 2008 4.59 1.66 ND 11 July 2008 4.42 1.62 3.90 18 July 2008 4.44 1.58 3.98 25 July 2008 4.62 ND 4.11 Figure: Nominal 10-Year Government Bond Yields Daily Percent Date Germany Japan United States 1 April 2008 3.97 1.36 3.57 2 April 2008 3.99 1.37 3.60 3 April 2008 3.98 1.35 3.61 4 April 2008 3.95 1.33 3.50 7 April 2008 4.01 1.34 3.57 8 April 2008 4.02 1.33 3.58 9 April 2008 4.01 1.34 3.49 10 April 2008 3.98 1.34 3.55 11 April 2008 3.91 1.37 3.49 14 April 2008 3.91 1.33 3.53 15 April 2008 3.96 1.34 3.60 16 April 2008 4.04 1.34 3.72 17 April 2008 4.08 1.37 3.75 18 April 2008 4.13 1.39 3.77 21 April 2008 4.12 1.45 3.75 22 April 2008 4.15 1.46 3.74 23 April 2008 4.15 1.44 3.77 24 April 2008 4.18 1.47 3.87 25 April 2008 4.18 1.62 3.91 28 April 2008 4.20 1.60 3.86 29 April 2008 4.14 ND 3.85 30 April 2008 4.12 1.56 3.77 1 May 2008 4.12 1.56 3.78 2 May 2008 4.20 1.61 3.89 5 May 2008 4.16 ND 3.88 6 May 2008 4.13 ND 3.93 7 May 2008 4.18 1.63 3.87 8 May 2008 4.06 1.64 3.79 9 May 2008 4.00 1.56 3.77 12 May 2008 4.01 1.59 3.78 13 May 2008 4.08 1.59 3.90 14 May 2008 4.17 1.70 3.92 15 May 2008 4.20 1.68 3.83 16 May 2008 4.17 1.69 3.85 19 May 2008 4.22 1.66 3.83 20 May 2008 4.19 1.63 3.78 21 May 2008 4.27 1.61 3.81 22 May 2008 4.30 1.67 3.92 23 May 2008 4.27 1.75 3.85 26 May 2008 4.29 1.74 ND 27 May 2008 4.31 1.78 3.93 28 May 2008 4.35 1.78 4.03 29 May 2008 4.43 1.80 4.08 30 May 2008 4.41 1.79 4.06 2 June 2008 4.35 1.75 3.98 3 June 2008 4.43 1.71 3.92 4 June 2008 4.38 1.74 3.98 5 June 2008 4.47 1.75 4.06 6 June 2008 4.42 1.80 3.94 9 June 2008 4.49 1.73 4.02 10 June 2008 4.52 1.80 4.11 11 June 2008 4.55 1.83 4.10 12 June 2008 4.60 1.80 4.23 13 June 2008 4.64 1.84 4.27 16 June 2008 4.63 1.87 4.25 17 June 2008 4.61 1.83 4.23 18 June 2008 4.61 1.78 4.16 19 June 2008 4.68 1.78 4.22 20 June 2008 4.63 1.76 4.16 23 June 2008 4.60 1.72 4.19 24 June 2008 4.60 1.71 4.10 25 June 2008 4.61 1.69 4.12 26 June 2008 4.52 1.66 4.07 27 June 2008 4.52 1.62 3.99 30 June 2008 4.62 1.62 3.99 1 July 2008 4.61 1.68 4.01 2 July 2008 4.65 1.66 3.99 3 July 2008 4.56 1.66 3.99 4 July 2008 4.50 1.65 ND 7 July 2008 4.43 1.69 3.95 8 July 2008 4.41 1.62 3.91 9 July 2008 4.41 1.62 3.85 10 July 2008 4.40 1.58 3.83 11 July 2008 4.43 1.60 3.96 14 July 2008 4.40 1.59 3.90 15 July 2008 4.39 1.55 3.87 16 July 2008 4.39 1.58 3.97 17 July 2008 4.44 1.60 4.07 18 July 2008 4.57 1.58 4.11 21 July 2008 4.64 ND 4.09 22 July 2008 4.64 1.62 4.14 23 July 2008 4.66 1.65 4.16 24 July 2008 4.57 1.65 4.03 25 July 2008 4.60 1.58 4.13 28 July 2008 4.53 1.57 4.06 29 July 2008 4.48 1.55 4.09 30 July 2008 4.45 1.54 ND As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. Figure: Inflation-Indexed 10-Year Government Bond Yields Weekly Percent Period France Japan* United States 2 January 2004 2.04 ND ND 9 January 2004 1.99 ND 1.99 16 January 2004 1.95 ND 1.88 23 January 2004 1.91 ND 1.84 30 January 2004 1.94 ND 1.90 6 February 2004 1.95 ND 1.85 13 February 2004 1.89 ND 1.80 20 February 2004 1.85 ND 1.80 27 February 2004 1.83 ND 1.73 5 March 2004 1.81 ND 1.58 12 March 2004 1.64 ND 1.49 19 March 2004 1.62 ND 1.44 26 March 2004 1.57 ND 1.45 2 April 2004 1.64 ND 1.55 9 April 2004 1.76 ND ND 16 April 2004 1.82 ND 1.89 23 April 2004 1.84 1.13 1.98 30 April 2004 1.88 ND 2.10 7 May 2004 1.87 ND 2.18 14 May 2004 1.93 1.10 2.23 21 May 2004 1.89 1.06 2.08 28 May 2004 1.84 1.06 2.03 4 June 2004 1.80 1.09 ND 11 June 2004 1.87 1.11 ND 18 June 2004 1.87 1.18 2.19 25 June 2004 1.89 1.18 2.16 2 July 2004 1.86 1.13 2.11 9 July 2004 1.77 1.06 ND 16 July 2004 1.77 1.01 2.02 23 July 2004 1.80 ND 2.04 30 July 2004 1.83 0.98 2.10 6 August 2004 1.75 0.86 1.97 13 August 2004 1.68 0.69 1.85 20 August 2004 1.67 0.64 1.83 27 August 2004 1.67 0.66 1.89 3 September 2004 1.67 0.67 1.84 10 September 2004 1.70 0.75 ND 17 September 2004 1.65 0.71 1.85 24 September 2004 1.58 ND 1.80 1 October 2004 1.53 0.63 1.78 8 October 2004 1.53 0.69 1.87 15 October 2004 1.46 ND ND 22 October 2004 1.44 0.59 1.70 29 October 2004 1.38 0.58 1.68 5 November 2004 1.40 ND 1.67 12 November 2004 1.33 0.58 ND 19 November 2004 1.47 0.57 1.66 26 November 2004 1.56 ND ND 3 December 2004 1.56 0.59 1.75 10 December 2004 1.44 0.58 1.65 17 December 2004 1.37 0.57 1.61 24 December 2004 1.40 ND ND 31 December 2004 1.46 ND 1.66 7 January 2005 1.41 ND 1.75 14 January 2005 1.40 ND 1.74 21 January 2005 1.38 0.54 ND 28 January 2005 1.39 0.52 1.70 4 February 2005 1.38 0.49 1.68 11 February 2005 1.31 ND 1.57 18 February 2005 1.40 0.61 1.62 25 February 2005 1.59 0.60 ND 4 March 2005 1.60 0.68 1.68 11 March 2005 1.56 0.65 1.72 18 March 2005 1.56 0.61 1.77 25 March 2005 1.54 ND ND 1 April 2005 1.49 0.44 1.84 8 April 2005 1.40 0.42 1.80 15 April 2005 1.40 0.39 1.73 22 April 2005 1.38 0.35 1.62 29 April 2005 1.36 ND 1.62 6 May 2005 1.37 ND 1.64 13 May 2005 1.31 0.35 1.66 20 May 2005 1.30 0.35 1.66 27 May 2005 1.29 0.33 1.65 3 June 2005 1.27 0.32 ND 10 June 2005 1.16 0.52 1.64 17 June 2005 1.28 0.65 1.76 24 June 2005 1.21 0.65 1.70 1 July 2005 1.18 0.58 1.69 8 July 2005 1.21 0.67 ND 15 July 2005 1.26 0.73 1.89 22 July 2005 1.26 ND 1.94 29 July 2005 1.20 0.78 1.92 5 August 2005 1.26 0.82 1.97 12 August 2005 1.27 0.94 1.99 19 August 2005 1.20 0.91 1.88 26 August 2005 1.13 0.95 1.82 2 September 2005 1.06 0.89 1.68 9 September 2005 0.99 0.84 ND 16 September 2005 1.04 0.83 1.70 23 September 2005 0.97 ND 1.71 30 September 2005 1.00 0.83 1.75 7 October 2005 1.03 0.86 1.86 14 October 2005 1.08 ND ND 21 October 2005 1.14 0.83 1.92 28 October 2005 1.23 0.85 2.01 4 November 2005 1.30 ND 2.03 11 November 2005 1.39 0.92 ND 18 November 2005 1.42 0.85 2.12 25 November 2005 1.40 ND ND 2 December 2005 1.33 0.89 2.15 9 December 2005 1.29 0.88 2.19 16 December 2005 1.29 0.88 2.17 23 December 2005 1.28 ND 2.14 30 December 2005 1.24 ND ND 6 January 2006 1.19 ND ND 13 January 2006 1.18 ND 2.07 20 January 2006 1.21 0.66 ND 27 January 2006 1.30 0.69 2.03 3 February 2006 1.35 0.73 2.03 10 February 2006 1.35 0.75 2.06 17 February 2006 1.37 0.75 2.10 24 February 2006 1.35 0.75 ND 3 March 2006 1.43 0.76 2.05 10 March 2006 1.50 0.78 2.20 17 March 2006 1.53 0.81 2.18 24 March 2006 1.51 ND 2.22 31 March 2006 1.56 0.80 2.32 7 April 2006 1.70 0.88 2.39 14 April 2006 1.76 0.94 ND 21 April 2006 1.81 0.98 2.40 28 April 2006 1.79 0.94 2.43 5 May 2006 1.77 ND 2.45 12 May 2006 1.79 0.99 2.44 19 May 2006 1.75 0.98 2.45 26 May 2006 1.67 0.92 2.44 2 June 2006 1.71 0.96 ND 9 June 2006 1.75 1.01 2.46 16 June 2006 1.71 0.97 2.50 23 June 2006 1.83 1.01 2.61 30 June 2006 1.86 1.04 2.63 7 July 2006 1.83 1.13 ND 14 July 2006 1.80 1.06 2.54 21 July 2006 1.76 ND 2.51 28 July 2006 1.75 1.06 2.47 4 August 2006 1.71 1.08 2.39 11 August 2006 1.67 1.02 2.32 18 August 2006 1.71 1.01 2.33 25 August 2006 1.62 0.97 2.27 1 September 2006 1.59 1.02 2.29 8 September 2006 1.62 1.07 ND 15 September 2006 1.62 1.02 2.39 22 September 2006 1.62 1.06 2.37 29 September 2006 1.58 1.07 2.29 6 October 2006 1.59 1.14 2.33 13 October 2006 1.65 ND ND 20 October 2006 1.71 1.17 2.49 27 October 2006 1.71 1.17 2.46 3 November 2006 1.60 ND 2.36 10 November 2006 1.58 1.13 2.31 17 November 2006 1.59 1.16 2.32 24 November 2006 1.57 ND ND 1 December 2006 1.54 1.14 2.20 8 December 2006 1.57 1.13 2.16 15 December 2006 1.65 1.10 2.23 22 December 2006 1.71 1.11 2.34 29 December 2006 1.76 1.14 ND 5 January 2007 1.79 1.17 ND 12 January 2007 1.88 1.21 2.46 19 January 2007 1.92 1.21 ND 26 January 2007 1.89 1.17 2.46 2 February 2007 1.94 1.24 2.45 9 February 2007 1.90 1.26 2.42 16 February 2007 1.94 1.28 2.43 23 February 2007 1.93 1.26 ND 2 March 2007 1.83 1.22 2.20 9 March 2007 1.81 1.21 2.21 16 March 2007 1.79 1.17 2.20 23 March 2007 1.81 1.11 2.19 30 March 2007 1.85 1.19 2.19 6 April 2007 1.90 1.20 2.26 13 April 2007 1.98 1.20 2.31 20 April 2007 2.01 1.19 2.30 27 April 2007 2.00 1.15 2.26 4 May 2007 1.99 1.11 2.25 11 May 2007 2.02 1.12 2.29 18 May 2007 2.12 1.13 2.40 25 May 2007 2.16 1.15 2.49 1 June 2007 2.22 1.18 ND 8 June 2007 2.31 1.25 2.63 15 June 2007 2.41 1.30 2.76 22 June 2007 2.45 1.27 2.71 29 June 2007 2.42 1.24 2.69 6 July 2007 2.43 1.30 ND 13 July 2007 2.44 1.33 2.73 20 July 2007 2.39 1.34 2.69 27 July 2007 2.28 1.32 2.57 3 August 2007 2.24 1.27 2.49 10 August 2007 2.28 1.25 2.57 17 August 2007 2.21 1.20 2.51 24 August 2007 2.15 1.17 2.45 31 August 2007 2.13 1.20 2.40 7 September 2007 2.10 1.19 ND 14 September 2007 2.01 1.12 2.22 21 September 2007 2.11 1.16 2.27 28 September 2007 2.14 1.24 2.34 5 October 2007 2.08 1.28 2.29 12 October 2007 2.12 1.29 ND 19 October 2007 2.12 1.25 2.27 26 October 2007 1.96 1.19 2.10 2 November 2007 1.92 1.16 2.06 9 November 2007 1.82 1.10 1.93 16 November 2007 1.81 1.05 ND 23 November 2007 1.74 1.06 ND 30 November 2007 1.77 1.10 1.68 7 December 2007 1.80 1.11 1.79 14 December 2007 1.99 1.18 1.92 21 December 2007 1.99 1.13 1.87 28 December 2007 2.02 ND ND 4 January 2008 1.92 1.04 ND 11 January 2008 1.83 1.00 1.66 18 January 2008 1.70 0.98 1.52 25 January 2008 1.70 0.98 ND 1 February 2008 1.70 1.06 1.40 8 February 2008 1.62 1.10 1.44 15 February 2008 1.62 1.12 1.49 22 February 2008 1.64 1.11 ND 29 February 2008 1.60 1.10 1.43 7 March 2008 1.42 1.07 1.20 14 March 2008 1.34 1.12 1.10 21 March 2008 1.43 1.16 ND 28 March 2008 1.60 1.19 1.32 4 April 2008 1.61 1.21 1.30 11 April 2008 1.63 1.17 1.30 18 April 2008 1.68 1.18 1.41 25 April 2008 1.77 1.25 1.53 2 May 2008 1.82 1.29 1.58 9 May 2008 1.73 1.32 1.55 16 May 2008 1.77 1.28 1.52 23 May 2008 1.88 1.27 1.43 30 May 2008 1.89 1.36 ND 6 June 2008 1.96 1.33 1.61 13 June 2008 2.14 1.34 1.72 20 June 2008 2.23 1.32 1.78 27 June 2008 2.10 1.18 1.67 4 July 2008 1.95 1.07 ND 11 July 2008 1.89 1.05 1.46 18 July 2008 1.99 1.04 1.55 25 July 2008 2.21 1.21 1.77 * Japan first issued inflation-indexed debt in March 2004. Return to table Figure: Inflation-Indexed 10-Year Government Bond Yields Daily Percent Date France Japan United States 1 April 2008 1.63 1.22 1.31 2 April 2008 1.64 1.24 1.32 3 April 2008 1.63 1.22 1.36 4 April 2008 1.60 1.19 1.28 7 April 2008 1.67 1.19 1.31 8 April 2008 1.66 1.16 1.35 9 April 2008 1.64 1.16 1.27 10 April 2008 1.62 1.14 1.33 11 April 2008 1.55 1.18 1.26 14 April 2008 1.55 1.14 1.28 15 April 2008 1.61 1.15 1.33 16 April 2008 1.68 1.17 1.44 17 April 2008 1.74 1.20 1.48 18 April 2008 1.81 1.22 1.49 21 April 2008 1.74 1.27 1.47 22 April 2008 1.78 1.26 1.46 23 April 2008 1.76 1.21 1.47 24 April 2008 1.79 1.22 1.59 25 April 2008 1.79 1.28 1.63 28 April 2008 1.83 1.29 1.60 29 April 2008 1.81 1.29 1.61 30 April 2008 1.80 1.28 1.56 1 May 2008 1.79 1.28 1.53 2 May 2008 1.87 1.34 1.59 5 May 2008 1.83 1.34 1.56 6 May 2008 1.77 1.34 1.60 7 May 2008 1.78 1.35 1.59 8 May 2008 1.67 1.32 1.51 9 May 2008 1.62 1.23 1.46 12 May 2008 1.65 1.25 1.48 13 May 2008 1.74 1.25 1.58 14 May 2008 1.83 1.32 1.58 15 May 2008 1.84 1.29 1.49 16 May 2008 1.81 1.28 1.48 19 May 2008 1.88 1.24 1.45 20 May 2008 1.84 1.23 1.39 21 May 2008 1.89 1.24 1.39 22 May 2008 1.90 1.28 1.49 23 May 2008 1.89 1.37 1.43 26 May 2008 1.90 1.37 ND 27 May 2008 1.88 1.38 1.55 28 May 2008 1.88 1.35 1.65 29 May 2008 1.91 1.37 1.71 30 May 2008 1.89 1.34 1.66 2 June 2008 1.86 1.37 1.58 3 June 2008 1.96 1.28 1.56 4 June 2008 1.95 1.35 1.63 5 June 2008 2.04 1.31 1.69 6 June 2008 1.99 1.35 1.56 9 June 2008 2.05 1.25 1.60 10 June 2008 2.09 1.31 1.70 11 June 2008 2.14 1.37 1.68 12 June 2008 2.22 1.33 1.80 13 June 2008 2.23 1.42 1.84 16 June 2008 2.22 1.41 1.81 17 June 2008 2.22 1.36 1.80 18 June 2008 2.22 1.30 1.74 19 June 2008 2.28 1.29 1.79 20 June 2008 2.20 1.24 1.76 23 June 2008 2.15 1.21 1.79 24 June 2008 2.14 1.21 1.71 25 June 2008 2.14 1.20 1.71 26 June 2008 2.04 1.16 1.58 27 June 2008 2.01 1.11 1.55 30 June 2008 2.03 1.09 1.54 1 July 2008 2.00 1.12 1.53 2 July 2008 2.00 1.10 1.46 3 July 2008 1.88 1.06 1.47 4 July 2008 1.84 0.99 ND 7 July 2008 1.84 1.04 1.47 8 July 2008 1.91 1.03 1.47 9 July 2008 1.92 1.07 1.43 10 July 2008 1.90 1.05 1.42 11 July 2008 1.87 1.06 1.52 14 July 2008 1.84 1.03 1.48 15 July 2008 1.92 0.98 1.45 16 July 2008 2.01 1.01 1.52 17 July 2008 2.04 1.05 1.63 18 July 2008 2.14 1.12 1.68 21 July 2008 2.18 1.12 1.70 22 July 2008 2.19 1.16 1.74 23 July 2008 2.25 1.24 1.85 24 July 2008 2.16 1.30 1.74 25 July 2008 2.25 1.23 1.83 28 July 2008 2.15 1.23 1.74 29 July 2008 2.16 1.21 1.79 30 July 2008 2.14 1.16 ND As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. Measures of Market Volatility Figure: Dollar-Euro Options-Implied Volatility* Weekly Percent Period 1-month 3-month 2 January 2004 10.62 11.10 9 January 2004 10.98 11.06 16 January 2004 11.11 10.81 23 January 2004 11.17 10.91 30 January 2004 11.49 10.99 6 February 2004 11.73 11.11 13 February 2004 11.23 10.97 20 February 2004 11.18 10.95 27 February 2004 11.16 10.91 5 March 2004 11.89 11.26 12 March 2004 11.65 11.23 19 March 2004 11.59 11.35 26 March 2004 11.45 11.25 2 April 2004 11.59 11.39 9 April 2004 11.27 11.28 16 April 2004 11.65 11.47 23 April 2004 11.48 11.34 30 April 2004 11.15 11.19 7 May 2004 11.37 11.27 14 May 2004 11.17 11.09 21 May 2004 10.64 10.76 28 May 2004 10.74 10.99 4 June 2004 11.27 11.12 11 June 2004 10.50 10.70 18 June 2004 10.56 10.64 25 June 2004 10.24 10.47 2 July 2004 10.16 10.31 9 July 2004 9.89 10.24 16 July 2004 9.56 10.04 23 July 2004 9.12 9.74 30 July 2004 9.51 9.92 6 August 2004 9.61 9.91 13 August 2004 9.26 9.90 20 August 2004 9.19 9.98 27 August 2004 9.52 10.20 3 September 2004 9.69 10.25 10 September 2004 9.51 10.00 17 September 2004 9.06 9.74 24 September 2004 8.45 9.38 1 October 2004 8.74 9.31 8 October 2004 8.42 8.94 15 October 2004 8.42 8.87 22 October 2004 9.21 9.53 29 October 2004 10.05 10.20 5 November 2004 10.13 10.27 12 November 2004 9.69 10.18 19 November 2004 9.25 9.88 26 November 2004 9.42 9.95 3 December 2004 9.41 9.98 10 December 2004 9.73 10.23 17 December 2004 9.54 9.98 24 December 2004 9.50 9.96 31 December 2004 10.10 10.37 7 January 2005 10.51 10.23 14 January 2005 9.47 9.54 21 January 2005 9.49 9.55 28 January 2005 9.37 9.46 4 February 2005 8.89 9.23 11 February 2005 8.74 9.06 18 February 2005 8.81 9.08 25 February 2005 8.67 9.01 4 March 2005 8.48 8.84 11 March 2005 8.49 8.94 18 March 2005 8.46 8.93 25 March 2005 8.47 8.83 1 April 2005 8.48 8.83 8 April 2005 8.18 8.60 15 April 2005 8.28 8.67 22 April 2005 8.57 8.91 29 April 2005 8.32 8.72 6 May 2005 8.26 8.59 13 May 2005 8.33 8.60 20 May 2005 8.33 8.61 27 May 2005 8.35 8.60 3 June 2005 9.08 9.18 10 June 2005 8.82 9.13 17 June 2005 9.39 9.47 24 June 2005 9.45 9.46 1 July 2005 9.14 9.22 8 July 2005 9.37 9.40 15 July 2005 8.97 9.05 22 July 2005 8.80 8.88 29 July 2005 8.61 8.79 5 August 2005 8.62 8.69 12 August 2005 8.27 8.60 19 August 2005 8.38 8.67 26 August 2005 8.39 8.72 2 September 2005 8.77 9.08 9 September 2005 8.94 9.14 16 September 2005 8.77 9.04 23 September 2005 8.83 9.03 30 September 2005 8.88 9.03 7 October 2005 8.95 8.93 14 October 2005 8.88 8.92 21 October 2005 8.98 9.04 28 October 2005 8.80 8.99 4 November 2005 8.89 8.98 11 November 2005 9.20 9.30 18 November 2005 9.19 9.24 25 November 2005 9.27 9.30 2 December 2005 8.99 9.25 9 December 2005 8.48 9.07 16 December 2005 8.86 9.19 23 December 2005 8.73 9.19 30 December 2005 8.97 9.27 6 January 2006 9.20 9.35 13 January 2006 9.03 9.15 20 January 2006 8.89 8.97 27 January 2006 8.87 8.93 3 February 2006 8.70 8.83 10 February 2006 8.57 8.75 17 February 2006 8.52 8.67 24 February 2006 8.02 8.46 3 March 2006 7.80 8.23 10 March 2006 7.85 8.29 17 March 2006 7.68 8.27 24 March 2006 7.44 8.13 31 March 2006 7.51 8.18 7 April 2006 8.09 8.46 14 April 2006 7.67 8.17 21 April 2006 8.24 8.50 28 April 2006 8.33 8.58 5 May 2006 8.70 8.82 12 May 2006 9.05 9.08 19 May 2006 9.29 9.32 26 May 2006 9.36 9.28 2 June 2006 9.12 9.13 9 June 2006 8.74 8.80 16 June 2006 8.45 8.54 23 June 2006 7.91 8.24 30 June 2006 8.07 8.29 7 July 2006 8.21 8.40 14 July 2006 7.79 8.10 21 July 2006 7.68 8.02 28 July 2006 7.50 7.93 4 August 2006 8.10 8.24 11 August 2006 7.67 8.05 18 August 2006 7.48 7.97 25 August 2006 7.76 8.03 1 September 2006 7.78 8.13 8 September 2006 7.62 8.06 15 September 2006 7.31 7.92 22 September 2006 6.93 7.60 29 September 2006 6.59 7.05 6 October 2006 6.45 6.78 13 October 2006 6.84 7.13 20 October 2006 6.40 6.82 27 October 2006 5.78 6.29 3 November 2006 5.91 6.30 10 November 2006 5.98 6.37 17 November 2006 6.14 6.41 24 November 2006 6.18 6.48 1 December 2006 7.33 7.63 8 December 2006 7.48 7.78 15 December 2006 7.21 7.27 22 December 2006 6.67 6.77 29 December 2006 6.76 6.80 5 January 2007 6.90 6.86 12 January 2007 6.33 6.35 19 January 2007 6.29 6.27 26 January 2007 6.08 6.16 2 February 2007 6.04 6.18 9 February 2007 5.88 6.03 16 February 2007 5.90 5.95 23 February 2007 5.53 5.69 2 March 2007 5.95 5.98 9 March 2007 5.97 6.05 16 March 2007 6.13 6.26 23 March 2007 6.24 6.36 30 March 2007 5.83 6.06 6 April 2007 5.79 6.04 13 April 2007 5.90 6.03 20 April 2007 5.95 6.07 27 April 2007 5.60 5.71 4 May 2007 5.58 5.61 11 May 2007 5.36 5.40 18 May 2007 5.30 5.39 25 May 2007 5.27 5.42 1 June 2007 5.08 5.24 8 June 2007 4.91 5.11 15 June 2007 5.03 5.24 22 June 2007 4.75 5.06 29 June 2007 4.87 5.15 6 July 2007 5.13 5.34 13 July 2007 5.44 5.56 20 July 2007 5.30 5.48 27 July 2007 5.38 5.55 3 August 2007 5.60 5.86 10 August 2007 6.02 6.25 17 August 2007 7.14 7.17 24 August 2007 6.66 6.66 31 August 2007 6.48 6.50 7 September 2007 6.87 6.78 14 September 2007 7.12 7.02 21 September 2007 6.76 6.72 28 September 2007 6.66 6.65 5 October 2007 7.13 6.75 12 October 2007 6.75 6.45 19 October 2007 6.81 6.50 26 October 2007 7.36 6.99 2 November 2007 7.45 7.12 9 November 2007 8.40 7.95 16 November 2007 9.04 8.21 23 November 2007 9.54 8.52 30 November 2007 9.22 8.74 7 December 2007 9.01 8.63 14 December 2007 8.40 8.17 21 December 2007 9.26 8.91 28 December 2007 9.26 8.81 4 January 2008 9.51 9.05 11 January 2008 9.17 8.93 18 January 2008 9.68 9.20 25 January 2008 9.64 9.26 1 February 2008 9.12 8.84 8 February 2008 9.56 9.28 15 February 2008 9.21 9.16 22 February 2008 8.84 8.89 29 February 2008 9.12 9.06 7 March 2008 9.91 9.73 14 March 2008 10.63 10.20 21 March 2008 12.35 11.53 28 March 2008 11.76 11.22 4 April 2008 11.22 10.83 11 April 2008 10.52 10.27 18 April 2008 10.72 10.48 25 April 2008 10.57 10.49 2 May 2008 10.13 10.18 9 May 2008 9.97 10.15 16 May 2008 9.72 9.92 23 May 2008 9.65 9.75 30 May 2008 9.42 9.67 6 June 2008 9.50 9.72 13 June 2008 10.54 10.55 20 June 2008 9.67 10.11 27 June 2008 9.38 9.90 4 July 2008 9.58 10.11 11 July 2008 9.32 9.88 18 July 2008 9.97 10.32 25 July 2008 8.97 9.58 * Derived from at-the-money options. Return to table Figure: Dollar-Euro OptionsImplied Volatility* Daily Percent Date 1-month 3-month 1 April 2008 11.80 11.30 2 April 2008 11.13 10.72 3 April 2008 10.98 10.63 4 April 2008 10.58 10.45 7 April 2008 10.31 10.00 8 April 2008 10.40 10.05 9 April 2008 10.38 10.13 10 April 2008 10.63 10.48 11 April 2008 10.90 10.70 14 April 2008 10.65 10.33 15 April 2008 10.70 10.33 16 April 2008 10.80 10.50 17 April 2008 10.70 10.58 18 April 2008 10.75 10.67 21 April 2008 10.70 10.54 22 April 2008 10.85 10.65 23 April 2008 10.55 10.40 24 April 2008 10.40 10.43 25 April 2008 10.33 10.42 28 April 2008 10.10 10.05 29 April 2008 10.20 10.18 30 April 2008 10.13 10.28 1 May 2008 10.25 10.38 2 May 2008 9.95 10.03 5 May 2008 9.95 10.03 6 May 2008 9.75 9.93 7 May 2008 9.98 10.28 8 May 2008 10.13 10.18 9 May 2008 10.03 10.33 12 May 2008 10.13 10.28 13 May 2008 10.03 10.13 14 May 2008 9.80 9.98 15 May 2008 9.48 9.74 16 May 2008 9.18 9.50 19 May 2008 9.40 9.48 20 May 2008 9.65 9.70 21 May 2008 10.18 10.10 22 May 2008 9.63 9.83 23 May 2008 9.38 9.63 26 May 2008 9.48 9.68 27 May 2008 9.63 9.73 28 May 2008 9.60 9.73 29 May 2008 9.43 9.73 30 May 2008 8.98 9.48 2 June 2008 9.28 9.53 3 June 2008 9.55 9.70 4 June 2008 9.53 9.68 5 June 2008 9.33 9.75 6 June 2008 9.80 9.93 9 June 2008 10.43 10.45 10 June 2008 10.68 10.63 11 June 2008 10.28 10.43 12 June 2008 10.53 10.53 13 June 2008 10.78 10.73 16 June 2008 10.30 10.40 17 June 2008 9.85 10.20 18 June 2008 9.73 10.05 19 June 2008 9.25 10.00 20 June 2008 9.23 9.88 23 June 2008 9.53 9.98 24 June 2008 9.40 9.80 25 June 2008 9.18 9.63 26 June 2008 9.38 10.00 27 June 2008 9.43 10.08 30 June 2008 9.73 10.13 1 July 2008 9.63 10.13 2 July 2008 9.90 10.58 3 July 2008 9.53 9.98 4 July 2008 9.10 9.73 7 July 2008 9.13 9.63 8 July 2008 9.33 9.85 9 July 2008 9.33 9.90 10 July 2008 9.18 9.88 11 July 2008 9.63 10.15 14 July 2008 10.23 10.38 15 July 2008 10.68 10.83 16 July 2008 10.23 10.48 17 July 2008 9.53 10.18 18 July 2008 9.20 9.73 21 July 2008 9.21 9.79 22 July 2008 9.43 9.83 23 July 2008 9.05 9.58 24 July 2008 8.68 9.43 25 July 2008 8.48 9.26 28 July 2008 8.48 9.19 29 July 2008 8.46 9.08 30 July 2008 8.40 9.12 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. * Derived from at-the-money options. Return to table Figure: Yen-Dollar Options-Implied Volatility* Weekly Percent Period 1-month 3-month 2 January 2004 8.64 9.17 9 January 2004 8.65 9.08 16 January 2004 8.72 8.87 23 January 2004 9.45 9.20 30 January 2004 10.08 9.59 6 February 2004 10.71 9.80 13 February 2004 8.00 8.47 20 February 2004 7.87 8.16 27 February 2004 8.44 8.36 5 March 2004 8.81 8.53 12 March 2004 9.08 8.60 19 March 2004 10.30 9.56 26 March 2004 10.62 9.85 2 April 2004 11.64 10.44 9 April 2004 10.41 9.98 16 April 2004 10.90 10.13 23 April 2004 10.56 9.95 30 April 2004 10.73 10.06 7 May 2004 11.02 10.22 14 May 2004 11.47 10.51 21 May 2004 11.62 10.71 28 May 2004 11.59 10.78 4 June 2004 11.90 10.96 11 June 2004 11.19 10.66 18 June 2004 11.30 10.77 25 June 2004 11.31 10.75 2 July 2004 10.75 10.23 9 July 2004 10.20 9.76 16 July 2004 9.82 9.45 23 July 2004 9.37 9.23 30 July 2004 9.59 9.36 6 August 2004 9.50 9.32 13 August 2004 8.70 8.87 20 August 2004 8.95 9.23 27 August 2004 9.06 9.28 3 September 2004 9.11 9.26 10 September 2004 8.71 9.09 17 September 2004 8.44 8.82 24 September 2004 8.31 8.58 1 October 2004 8.77 8.63 8 October 2004 8.19 8.18 15 October 2004 8.19 8.27 22 October 2004 8.83 8.73 29 October 2004 9.61 9.31 5 November 2004 9.31 9.16 12 November 2004 8.74 8.85 19 November 2004 9.57 9.43 26 November 2004 9.84 9.83 3 December 2004 9.76 9.83 10 December 2004 9.78 9.75 17 December 2004 9.65 9.51 24 December 2004 9.60 9.58 31 December 2004 10.22 9.93 7 January 2005 10.37 9.92 14 January 2005 10.25 9.80 21 January 2005 10.67 10.04 28 January 2005 10.22 9.71 4 February 2005 9.36 9.24 11 February 2005 9.32 9.03 18 February 2005 9.27 9.06 25 February 2005 8.93 9.03 4 March 2005 9.02 9.07 11 March 2005 8.90 9.00 18 March 2005 8.88 9.01 25 March 2005 8.67 8.87 1 April 2005 8.75 8.85 8 April 2005 8.06 8.40 15 April 2005 8.26 8.50 22 April 2005 8.36 8.63 29 April 2005 8.34 8.64 6 May 2005 8.68 8.81 13 May 2005 8.22 8.44 20 May 2005 8.36 8.52 27 May 2005 7.92 8.20 3 June 2005 7.86 8.08 10 June 2005 7.77 8.11 17 June 2005 7.75 8.01 24 June 2005 7.65 7.93 1 July 2005 7.74 7.82 8 July 2005 8.03 8.03 15 July 2005 7.74 7.91 22 July 2005 8.10 8.10 29 July 2005 8.12 8.12 5 August 2005 8.31 8.23 12 August 2005 8.24 8.23 19 August 2005 8.13 8.19 26 August 2005 8.07 8.18 2 September 2005 8.36 8.36 9 September 2005 8.23 8.32 16 September 2005 8.24 8.23 23 September 2005 8.00 8.15 30 September 2005 8.15 8.15 7 October 2005 8.15 8.09 14 October 2005 8.04 8.05 21 October 2005 8.10 8.09 28 October 2005 7.88 8.06 4 November 2005 7.88 8.06 11 November 2005 7.75 8.02 18 November 2005 7.85 8.00 25 November 2005 7.79 7.90 2 December 2005 7.77 7.99 9 December 2005 7.84 8.13 16 December 2005 8.63 8.54 23 December 2005 8.48 8.47 30 December 2005 8.50 8.45 6 January 2006 8.89 8.63 13 January 2006 9.28 9.02 20 January 2006 9.00 8.83 27 January 2006 8.89 8.74 3 February 2006 8.89 8.70 10 February 2006 9.05 8.81 17 February 2006 9.11 8.85 24 February 2006 8.84 8.75 3 March 2006 9.11 8.90 10 March 2006 8.94 8.78 17 March 2006 8.86 8.77 24 March 2006 8.87 8.84 31 March 2006 9.02 8.92 7 April 2006 8.70 8.78 14 April 2006 8.11 8.44 21 April 2006 8.49 8.55 28 April 2006 9.25 9.19 5 May 2006 9.63 9.37 10.66 10.20 12 May 2006 19 May 2006 10.78 10.33 26 May 2006 10.84 10.24 2 June 2006 10.24 9.95 9 June 2006 9.29 9.19 16 June 2006 8.80 8.86 23 June 2006 8.48 8.58 30 June 2006 8.70 8.72 7 July 2006 8.89 8.83 14 July 2006 8.94 8.73 21 July 2006 8.43 8.47 28 July 2006 8.24 8.40 4 August 2006 8.73 8.70 11 August 2006 8.30 8.45 18 August 2006 8.05 8.33 25 August 2006 8.03 8.25 1 September 2006 7.92 8.17 8 September 2006 7.98 8.21 15 September 2006 7.88 8.08 22 September 2006 7.50 7.84 29 September 2006 6.99 7.28 6 October 2006 6.80 6.99 13 October 2006 7.27 7.34 20 October 2006 7.08 7.31 27 October 2006 6.66 6.98 3 November 2006 6.96 7.13 10 November 2006 6.59 6.87 17 November 2006 6.73 6.88 24 November 2006 6.74 6.72 1 December 2006 7.36 7.40 8 December 2006 7.79 7.70 15 December 2006 7.02 7.11 22 December 2006 6.40 6.59 29 December 2006 6.26 6.48 5 January 2007 6.56 6.65 12 January 2007 6.56 6.56 19 January 2007 6.61 6.64 26 January 2007 6.89 6.85 2 February 2007 7.46 7.26 9 February 2007 7.62 7.23 16 February 2007 7.33 7.12 23 February 2007 7.05 6.92 2 March 2007 8.21 7.66 9 March 2007 9.08 8.16 16 March 2007 9.41 8.27 23 March 2007 8.97 8.09 30 March 2007 8.78 7.90 6 April 2007 8.48 7.81 13 April 2007 7.70 7.43 20 April 2007 7.71 7.40 27 April 2007 7.30 7.21 4 May 2007 7.10 7.04 11 May 2007 6.76 6.80 18 May 2007 6.45 6.52 25 May 2007 6.36 6.49 1 June 2007 6.36 6.55 8 June 2007 6.24 6.41 15 June 2007 6.35 6.51 22 June 2007 6.09 6.42 29 June 2007 7.07 6.96 6 July 2007 6.84 6.91 13 July 2007 7.02 6.96 20 July 2007 7.08 7.11 27 July 2007 8.09 7.71 3 August 2007 9.30 8.58 10 August 2007 10.02 9.11 17 August 2007 13.52 11.55 24 August 2007 13.49 10.99 31 August 2007 13.41 10.86 7 September 2007 13.39 11.22 14 September 2007 12.47 10.71 21 September 2007 10.67 9.54 28 September 2007 9.62 9.02 5 October 2007 9.42 8.57 12 October 2007 7.97 7.48 19 October 2007 9.19 8.33 26 October 2007 10.35 9.01 2 November 2007 9.26 8.59 9 November 2007 11.70 9.80 16 November 2007 13.98 11.56 23 November 2007 14.29 12.04 30 November 2007 13.36 11.25 7 December 2007 11.05 10.25 14 December 2007 10.30 10.08 21 December 2007 10.08 9.75 28 December 2007 9.73 9.47 4 January 2008 12.54 11.14 11 January 2008 12.32 11.28 18 January 2008 13.79 12.22 25 January 2008 14.26 12.69 1 February 2008 13.04 11.87 8 February 2008 11.77 10.96 15 February 2008 11.42 10.75 22 February 2008 11.18 10.48 29 February 2008 11.55 10.83 7 March 2008 14.40 12.99 14 March 2008 15.66 13.55 21 March 2008 17.77 15.82 28 March 2008 16.52 14.38 4 April 2008 15.47 13.80 11 April 2008 14.04 12.89 18 April 2008 14.26 13.26 25 April 2008 13.27 12.28 2 May 2008 12.00 11.69 9 May 2008 11.48 11.32 16 May 2008 11.52 11.11 23 May 2008 12.01 11.49 30 May 2008 11.51 11.12 6 June 2008 11.59 11.14 13 June 2008 11.86 11.38 20 June 2008 10.58 10.58 27 June 2008 10.81 10.74 4 July 2008 11.39 11.24 11 July 2008 10.64 10.56 18 July 2008 12.05 11.61 25 July 2008 10.99 10.94 * Derived from at-the-money options. Return to table Figure: Yen-Dollar OptionsImplied Volatility* Daily Percent Date 1-month 3-month 1 April 2008 15.55 13.78 2 April 2008 15.10 13.33 3 April 2008 15.15 13.50 4 April 2008 14.58 13.48 7 April 2008 13.95 12.45 8 April 2008 13.65 12.50 9 April 2008 13.51 12.47 10 April 2008 14.95 13.55 11 April 2008 14.15 13.50 14 April 2008 15.50 13.95 15 April 2008 14.65 13.70 16 April 2008 14.45 13.30 17 April 2008 13.80 13.05 18 April 2008 12.90 12.28 21 April 2008 13.90 12.60 22 April 2008 14.00 12.65 23 April 2008 13.30 12.25 24 April 2008 12.70 12.03 25 April 2008 12.43 11.89 28 April 2008 12.35 11.88 29 April 2008 12.35 11.73 30 April 2008 12.35 11.78 1 May 2008 12.10 11.80 2 May 2008 10.85 11.25 5 May 2008 10.85 11.25 6 May 2008 11.08 10.95 7 May 2008 10.80 10.70 8 May 2008 11.75 11.49 9 May 2008 12.91 12.21 12 May 2008 12.30 11.83 13 May 2008 11.70 11.13 14 May 2008 11.05 10.88 15 May 2008 11.15 10.73 16 May 2008 11.40 11.00 19 May 2008 11.45 11.03 20 May 2008 12.00 11.53 21 May 2008 12.45 11.78 22 May 2008 11.95 11.55 23 May 2008 12.20 11.55 26 May 2008 12.30 11.63 27 May 2008 11.85 11.43 28 May 2008 11.55 10.98 29 May 2008 11.05 10.78 30 May 2008 10.81 10.78 2 June 2008 11.65 11.18 3 June 2008 11.75 11.13 4 June 2008 11.88 11.13 5 June 2008 11.30 11.08 6 June 2008 11.35 11.18 9 June 2008 12.05 11.48 10 June 2008 11.95 11.53 11 June 2008 12.15 11.53 12 June 2008 11.65 11.28 13 June 2008 11.50 11.08 16 June 2008 10.83 10.73 17 June 2008 10.49 10.35 18 June 2008 10.50 10.43 19 June 2008 10.35 10.53 20 June 2008 10.75 10.88 23 June 2008 10.55 10.58 24 June 2008 10.40 10.43 25 June 2008 10.50 10.48 26 June 2008 11.15 10.98 27 June 2008 11.45 11.23 30 June 2008 11.85 11.58 1 July 2008 11.95 11.78 2 July 2008 11.65 11.48 3 July 2008 11.10 10.88 4 July 2008 10.40 10.48 7 July 2008 10.55 10.58 8 July 2008 10.60 10.55 9 July 2008 10.50 10.40 10 July 2008 10.45 10.43 11 July 2008 11.10 10.83 14 July 2008 11.40 10.88 15 July 2008 13.05 12.38 16 July 2008 12.58 12.18 17 July 2008 11.85 11.33 18 July 2008 11.35 11.28 21 July 2008 11.53 11.25 22 July 2008 11.15 11.18 23 July 2008 10.80 10.74 24 July 2008 10.75 10.75 25 July 2008 10.75 10.80 28 July 2008 10.45 10.61 29 July 2008 10.13 10.42 30 July 2008 10.06 10.23 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. * Derived from at-the-money options. Return to table Figure: Realized Stock Market Volatility* Weekly Percent Period DJ Euro Stoxx TOPIX S&P 500 2 January 2004 12.61 24.25 10.70 9 January 2004 12.33 24.16 10.93 16 January 2004 12.11 22.92 10.63 23 January 2004 11.68 20.96 10.33 30 January 2004 11.05 20.17 10.95 6 February 2004 11.00 18.98 11.04 13 February 2004 9.79 16.58 10.81 20 February 2004 9.37 15.96 10.55 27 February 2004 9.42 15.83 10.25 5 March 2004 9.38 15.88 9.96 12 March 2004 10.40 14.06 10.46 19 March 2004 13.23 14.38 11.76 26 March 2004 14.31 14.37 12.10 2 April 2004 14.69 14.27 12.30 9 April 2004 15.17 14.21 12.30 16 April 2004 15.39 14.54 12.41 23 April 2004 15.50 15.18 12.34 30 April 2004 15.64 14.71 12.60 7 May 2004 15.90 14.80 12.59 14 May 2004 17.33 20.79 12.78 21 May 2004 17.85 23.30 12.98 28 May 2004 18.03 23.16 13.20 4 June 2004 17.90 23.38 13.00 11 June 2004 16.23 23.52 12.47 18 June 2004 15.22 23.39 11.95 25 June 2004 14.73 23.58 11.43 2 July 2004 14.08 23.51 11.32 9 July 2004 13.73 23.34 11.18 16 July 2004 13.56 23.13 10.58 23 July 2004 13.56 23.51 10.26 30 July 2004 13.67 23.08 10.18 6 August 2004 12.16 18.70 9.92 13 August 2004 12.16 15.51 10.84 20 August 2004 11.79 15.02 11.20 27 August 2004 11.76 14.76 11.11 3 September 2004 11.67 13.81 10.62 10 September 2004 11.48 14.12 10.68 17 September 2004 11.54 13.80 10.66 24 September 2004 11.50 13.74 10.89 1 October 2004 11.76 13.50 10.94 8 October 2004 12.44 13.95 11.34 15 October 2004 12.12 13.78 11.34 22 October 2004 11.63 13.46 11.27 29 October 2004 11.87 13.43 11.49 5 November 2004 10.83 13.51 10.86 12 November 2004 10.67 13.01 10.56 19 November 2004 10.75 13.57 10.68 26 November 2004 10.77 14.08 10.77 3 December 2004 10.82 13.98 10.84 10 December 2004 10.73 14.15 11.13 17 December 2004 10.68 14.13 10.89 24 December 2004 10.45 13.97 10.68 31 December 2004 9.69 13.14 10.41 7 January 2005 9.67 13.24 10.41 14 January 2005 9.56 13.10 10.20 21 January 2005 8.34 12.49 10.00 28 January 2005 8.01 11.96 9.77 4 February 2005 8.23 11.45 9.53 11 February 2005 7.93 10.55 9.47 18 February 2005 7.77 9.70 9.27 25 February 2005 7.72 9.02 9.14 4 March 2005 7.80 8.30 9.09 11 March 2005 7.82 7.75 9.17 18 March 2005 8.09 7.62 9.39 25 March 2005 8.37 7.88 9.44 1 April 2005 8.42 8.34 9.59 8 April 2005 8.27 8.41 9.71 15 April 2005 8.41 8.71 9.82 22 April 2005 10.22 12.34 10.91 29 April 2005 10.25 12.49 11.75 6 May 2005 10.38 12.73 12.05 13 May 2005 10.35 12.75 12.31 20 May 2005 10.56 13.25 12.51 27 May 2005 10.57 13.57 12.30 3 June 2005 10.70 13.73 12.34 10 June 2005 10.62 13.74 12.13 17 June 2005 10.43 13.62 11.88 24 June 2005 10.30 13.30 11.50 1 July 2005 10.57 13.25 11.60 8 July 2005 10.74 12.92 11.44 15 July 2005 9.76 9.13 10.36 22 July 2005 9.49 9.04 9.29 29 July 2005 9.17 8.98 8.80 5 August 2005 9.12 9.01 8.50 12 August 2005 9.29 9.13 8.17 19 August 2005 9.42 8.75 8.46 26 August 2005 9.54 8.95 8.31 2 September 2005 9.57 9.37 8.47 9 September 2005 9.71 9.29 8.68 16 September 2005 9.71 9.73 8.78 23 September 2005 9.59 9.60 8.77 30 September 2005 10.00 10.50 8.54 9.63 12.20 8.70 7 October 2005 14 October 2005 9.90 13.30 8.92 21 October 2005 10.53 13.42 9.53 28 October 2005 11.20 13.72 10.62 4 November 2005 12.01 14.00 11.20 11 November 2005 11.95 14.06 11.04 18 November 2005 11.79 14.31 11.11 25 November 2005 11.57 14.48 11.09 2 December 2005 11.53 14.79 11.25 9 December 2005 11.66 15.26 11.23 16 December 2005 11.36 16.20 10.89 23 December 2005 10.72 16.09 10.87 30 December 2005 10.48 15.31 10.45 6 January 2006 10.31 14.63 10.17 13 January 2006 9.66 14.62 9.45 20 January 2006 9.29 17.12 8.28 27 January 2006 8.55 19.24 8.20 3 February 2006 9.16 19.89 8.34 10 February 2006 9.35 20.16 8.60 17 February 2006 9.59 21.30 8.68 24 February 2006 3 March 2006 9.41 22.34 8.50 9.82 22.29 8.65 10 March 2006 10.41 21.93 8.88 17 March 2006 10.60 22.11 9.10 24 March 2006 10.37 22.23 9.12 31 March 2006 10.41 21.85 9.08 7 April 2006 10.49 21.73 9.09 14 April 2006 10.52 20.27 9.05 21 April 2006 10.39 18.48 8.92 28 April 2006 10.06 18.32 8.82 5 May 2006 10.13 18.05 8.56 12 May 2006 10.31 17.08 8.67 19 May 2006 12.61 16.31 9.35 26 May 2006 15.34 17.18 9.50 2 June 2006 16.56 17.70 9.84 9 June 2006 17.52 18.37 10.55 16 June 2006 19.27 20.31 11.33 23 June 2006 19.92 21.92 12.06 30 June 2006 20.04 22.26 12.48 7 July 2006 20.58 22.84 13.05 14 July 2006 20.31 22.87 12.80 21 July 2006 20.84 23.38 13.36 28 July 2006 21.28 24.18 14.15 4 August 2006 21.35 23.84 14.11 11 August 2006 20.65 23.76 13.52 18 August 2006 18.80 23.04 13.44 25 August 2006 17.69 22.54 13.08 1 September 2006 16.41 21.42 12.29 8 September 2006 14.45 19.06 11.71 15 September 2006 13.96 17.90 11.14 22 September 2006 13.85 17.45 10.56 29 September 2006 13.39 17.33 9.99 6 October 2006 12.75 17.41 9.67 13 October 2006 11.30 16.52 8.82 20 October 2006 10.46 15.37 7.62 27 October 2006 9.94 15.12 7.30 3 November 2006 8.99 14.88 7.47 10 November 2006 8.87 14.59 7.37 17 November 2006 8.72 14.67 7.23 24 November 2006 8.77 15.46 7.18 1 December 2006 9.68 15.73 7.63 8 December 2006 9.92 15.47 7.53 15 December 2006 9.70 15.08 7.48 22 December 2006 9.31 14.39 7.30 29 December 2006 9.50 13.60 7.30 5 January 2007 9.58 13.23 7.33 12 January 2007 9.57 13.93 7.33 19 January 2007 9.90 14.57 7.38 26 January 2007 10.16 13.86 7.48 2 February 2007 10.02 13.53 7.50 9 February 2007 10.08 13.49 7.48 16 February 2007 10.28 12.12 7.83 23 February 2007 9.14 11.48 7.12 2 March 2007 10.70 12.57 9.80 9 March 2007 11.77 16.19 11.37 16 March 2007 13.07 17.22 12.19 23 March 2007 14.35 18.20 12.75 30 March 2007 14.62 18.02 12.73 6 April 2007 14.61 17.86 12.79 13 April 2007 14.66 17.64 12.83 20 April 2007 14.81 18.01 12.86 27 April 2007 15.07 18.22 12.79 4 May 2007 15.25 18.26 12.94 11 May 2007 15.26 18.16 12.95 18 May 2007 15.33 18.19 13.11 25 May 2007 13.87 17.60 11.18 1 June 2007 13.15 14.96 10.15 8 June 2007 12.41 13.55 9.72 15 June 2007 11.75 12.59 10.19 22 June 2007 11.81 12.54 10.46 29 June 2007 11.84 11.78 10.91 6 July 2007 11.90 11.61 10.98 13 July 2007 11.94 11.11 11.42 20 July 2007 12.03 11.25 11.80 27 July 2007 13.24 11.54 12.95 3 August 2007 14.61 12.56 14.46 10 August 2007 15.96 12.97 16.63 17 August 2007 18.24 15.28 17.92 24 August 2007 19.21 20.46 18.43 31 August 2007 19.19 21.24 19.27 7 September 2007 19.29 21.95 19.57 14 September 2007 19.73 22.20 19.76 21 September 2007 20.61 23.46 20.38 28 September 2007 20.93 24.53 20.33 5 October 2007 20.82 25.15 20.04 12 October 2007 20.54 25.15 19.87 19 October 2007 19.79 25.46 19.32 26 October 2007 19.07 25.59 18.86 2 November 2007 18.17 26.05 17.49 9 November 2007 16.03 25.20 17.57 16 November 2007 14.86 22.58 18.43 23 November 2007 15.49 22.65 18.25 30 November 2007 15.75 22.71 19.08 7 December 2007 15.43 22.93 19.36 14 December 2007 14.62 22.06 19.40 21 December 2007 14.85 21.57 19.76 28 December 2007 15.25 21.18 20.19 4 January 2008 15.53 21.36 20.63 11 January 2008 15.84 21.61 21.46 18 January 2008 16.37 22.69 22.09 25 January 2008 24.01 27.44 22.87 1 February 2008 26.98 31.79 22.86 8 February 2008 28.31 32.09 22.75 15 February 2008 28.97 32.99 22.44 22 February 2008 29.03 33.40 21.38 29 February 2008 29.07 34.14 21.26 7 March 2008 29.49 35.36 21.17 14 March 2008 29.81 36.22 22.53 21 March 2008 30.78 37.56 24.61 28 March 2008 31.00 37.31 25.39 4 April 2008 31.57 37.71 25.54 11 April 2008 31.46 37.26 24.69 18 April 2008 26.18 34.42 24.02 25 April 2008 24.10 31.44 23.62 2 May 2008 22.68 31.00 22.51 9 May 2008 21.53 30.75 22.44 16 May 2008 20.74 30.17 22.13 23 May 2008 20.37 29.18 21.85 30 May 2008 19.46 28.25 21.55 6 June 2008 18.82 27.32 20.13 13 June 2008 16.26 25.23 18.36 20 June 2008 16.10 25.40 17.40 27 June 2008 15.71 24.10 16.71 4 July 2008 16.28 22.96 17.18 11 July 2008 17.25 21.91 17.36 18 July 2008 18.63 21.37 17.81 25 July 2008 19.92 21.05 18.51 * Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns. Return to table Figure: Realized Stock Market Volatility* Daily Percent Date DJ Euro Stoxx TOPIX S&P 500 1 April 2008 31.70 37.16 25.89 2 April 2008 31.76 38.15 25.71 3 April 2008 31.75 38.16 25.65 4 April 2008 31.78 38.04 25.49 7 April 2008 31.84 37.80 25.37 8 April 2008 31.40 37.63 24.81 9 April 2008 31.37 37.00 24.84 10 April 2008 31.35 36.76 24.01 11 April 2008 31.35 37.11 24.40 14 April 2008 28.07 36.71 24.18 15 April 2008 27.88 34.57 23.98 16 April 2008 26.85 34.29 24.03 17 April 2008 23.81 33.97 23.94 18 April 2008 24.28 32.54 23.99 21 April 2008 24.32 31.78 23.71 22 April 2008 24.10 31.40 23.75 23 April 2008 24.14 31.38 23.74 24 April 2008 24.14 31.09 23.51 25 April 2008 23.80 31.52 23.40 28 April 2008 23.83 31.40 23.30 29 April 2008 22.42 31.66 22.24 30 April 2008 22.39 30.54 22.19 1 May 2008 22.28 30.59 22.41 2 May 2008 22.49 30.82 22.39 5 May 2008 22.44 30.82 22.39 6 May 2008 21.30 30.82 22.40 7 May 2008 21.37 31.11 22.58 8 May 2008 21.38 30.30 22.40 9 May 2008 21.18 30.71 22.45 12 May 2008 20.82 30.71 22.36 13 May 2008 20.80 30.77 22.16 14 May 2008 20.76 30.02 22.11 15 May 2008 20.72 29.71 22.03 16 May 2008 20.62 29.63 21.98 19 May 2008 20.39 29.13 21.80 20 May 2008 20.47 29.11 21.85 21 May 2008 20.52 29.35 22.12 22 May 2008 20.19 29.34 22.04 23 May 2008 20.28 28.96 21.45 26 May 2008 20.09 28.01 21.64 27 May 2008 19.79 28.23 21.82 28 May 2008 19.37 28.43 21.81 29 May 2008 19.06 28.60 21.28 30 May 2008 18.96 27.98 21.18 2 June 2008 19.05 27.68 21.03 3 June 2008 18.80 27.83 19.64 4 June 2008 18.74 27.83 19.54 5 June 2008 18.47 26.85 19.92 6 June 2008 19.03 26.43 20.55 9 June 2008 17.15 25.49 20.44 10 June 2008 15.76 25.57 18.46 11 June 2008 16.10 24.97 18.06 12 June 2008 16.19 25.18 17.35 13 June 2008 16.08 24.96 17.49 16 June 2008 15.97 25.32 17.33 17 June 2008 15.88 25.16 17.38 18 June 2008 16.20 25.13 17.41 19 June 2008 16.05 25.66 17.25 20 June 2008 16.39 25.74 17.62 23 June 2008 16.40 25.15 17.58 24 June 2008 14.93 25.00 15.89 25 June 2008 15.18 23.47 15.95 26 June 2008 16.03 23.31 17.06 27 June 2008 15.99 23.57 17.06 30 June 2008 15.85 23.41 17.06 1 July 2008 16.31 23.09 17.07 2 July 2008 16.28 23.05 17.39 3 July 2008 16.45 22.91 17.35 4 July 2008 16.54 22.32 17.02 7 July 2008 16.93 21.73 17.16 8 July 2008 17.15 22.24 17.55 9 July 2008 17.15 22.08 17.44 10 July 2008 17.50 21.79 17.53 11 July 2008 17.53 21.73 17.13 14 July 2008 17.62 21.24 17.19 15 July 2008 18.16 21.49 17.24 16 July 2008 18.27 21.49 18.13 17 July 2008 19.41 21.63 18.28 18 July 2008 19.71 20.99 18.20 21 July 2008 19.72 20.83 18.20 22 July 2008 19.71 20.83 18.48 23 July 2008 20.12 20.84 18.51 24 July 2008 20.11 21.37 18.66 25 July 2008 19.94 21.40 18.67 28 July 2008 20.04 21.21 19.00 29 July 2008 20.06 21.20 19.64 30 July 2008 20.17 21.37 19.34 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. * Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns. Return to table Figure: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility* Weekly Percent Period Germany Japan U.S. 2 January 2004 4.51 5.65 7.77 9 January 2004 4.69 5.33 7.93 16 January 2004 4.81 5.06 8.18 23 January 2004 4.82 4.84 7.96 30 January 2004 4.82 4.81 8.14 6 February 2004 4.75 4.29 7.99 13 February 2004 4.62 3.95 7.79 20 February 2004 4.63 3.93 7.67 27 February 2004 4.64 3.45 7.45 5 March 2004 4.64 3.69 7.24 12 March 2004 5.16 3.86 7.91 19 March 2004 5.16 3.92 7.74 26 March 2004 5.00 4.10 7.54 2 April 2004 5.07 4.57 7.70 9 April 2004 5.17 4.65 8.35 16 April 2004 5.18 4.78 8.39 23 April 2004 5.20 5.02 8.08 30 April 2004 5.11 5.24 8.04 7 May 2004 5.12 5.32 7.91 14 May 2004 5.21 5.34 8.01 21 May 2004 5.24 5.44 8.20 28 May 2004 5.19 5.16 8.14 4 June 2004 4.66 4.83 7.58 11 June 2004 4.62 5.00 7.50 18 June 2004 4.67 5.06 8.14 25 June 2004 4.43 4.91 7.95 2 July 2004 4.19 5.26 7.25 9 July 2004 4.23 5.48 7.28 16 July 2004 4.11 5.43 7.20 23 July 2004 4.19 5.24 7.34 30 July 2004 4.18 5.16 7.51 6 August 2004 4.08 5.39 7.34 13 August 2004 4.15 5.55 7.67 20 August 2004 4.07 5.82 7.61 27 August 2004 3.93 5.82 7.39 3 September 2004 3.97 5.57 7.39 10 September 2004 4.17 5.64 7.12 17 September 2004 4.20 5.55 7.13 24 September 2004 4.11 5.30 7.03 1 October 2004 4.17 5.00 6.93 8 October 2004 4.21 5.10 7.10 15 October 2004 4.25 5.35 7.09 22 October 2004 4.20 5.48 6.76 29 October 2004 4.19 5.52 6.56 5 November 2004 4.14 5.45 6.09 12 November 2004 4.14 5.24 6.22 19 November 2004 4.13 5.20 6.33 26 November 2004 4.14 5.22 6.31 3 December 2004 3.97 4.82 6.23 10 December 2004 3.99 4.66 6.48 17 December 2004 4.04 4.57 6.35 24 December 2004 4.04 4.62 6.38 31 December 2004 4.08 4.45 6.26 7 January 2005 4.07 4.13 5.95 14 January 2005 4.09 3.93 5.85 21 January 2005 4.06 3.39 5.80 28 January 2005 4.10 3.11 5.61 4 February 2005 4.11 2.98 5.45 11 February 2005 4.14 3.07 5.56 18 February 2005 4.27 3.08 5.58 25 February 2005 4.50 3.12 5.41 4 March 2005 4.44 3.16 5.11 11 March 2005 4.50 3.10 5.37 18 March 2005 4.47 3.06 5.62 25 March 2005 4.46 3.04 5.75 1 April 2005 4.41 3.08 5.86 8 April 2005 4.41 3.19 5.97 15 April 2005 4.34 3.19 6.07 22 April 2005 4.24 3.30 6.35 29 April 2005 4.13 3.27 6.49 6 May 2005 4.08 3.20 6.32 13 May 2005 4.03 3.32 6.36 20 May 2005 3.77 3.22 6.22 27 May 2005 3.89 3.14 6.13 3 June 2005 3.73 3.21 5.84 10 June 2005 3.84 3.13 5.73 17 June 2005 4.04 3.13 5.68 24 June 2005 4.48 3.24 5.71 1 July 2005 4.60 3.15 5.95 8 July 2005 4.73 3.30 6.23 15 July 2005 4.77 3.32 6.00 22 July 2005 4.87 3.30 5.92 29 July 2005 4.86 3.29 6.15 5 August 2005 4.93 3.17 6.18 12 August 2005 4.86 3.27 6.24 19 August 2005 4.71 3.48 6.43 26 August 2005 4.60 3.66 6.26 2 September 2005 4.40 3.84 6.25 9 September 2005 4.22 3.78 6.41 16 September 2005 3.83 3.63 6.30 23 September 2005 3.72 3.57 6.10 30 September 2005 3.78 3.58 5.83 7 October 2005 3.71 3.94 5.84 14 October 2005 3.65 4.16 5.79 21 October 2005 3.74 4.37 5.53 28 October 2005 3.91 4.64 5.63 4 November 2005 4.01 4.65 5.47 11 November 2005 3.91 4.49 5.41 18 November 2005 4.06 4.53 5.75 25 November 2005 4.48 4.49 5.58 2 December 2005 4.51 4.57 5.40 9 December 2005 4.52 4.84 5.55 16 December 2005 4.59 4.92 5.71 23 December 2005 4.53 4.88 5.64 30 December 2005 4.65 4.64 5.73 6 January 2006 4.66 4.55 5.69 13 January 2006 4.56 4.38 5.70 20 January 2006 4.31 4.14 5.46 27 January 2006 4.39 4.21 5.57 3 February 2006 4.54 4.15 5.37 10 February 2006 4.40 3.81 4.91 17 February 2006 3.88 4.11 4.76 24 February 2006 3.94 4.28 4.76 3 March 2006 4.06 4.11 4.54 10 March 2006 3.98 4.07 4.30 17 March 2006 4.05 4.31 4.29 24 March 2006 4.01 4.21 4.32 31 March 2006 4.18 4.24 4.57 7 April 2006 4.25 4.52 4.61 14 April 2006 4.21 4.48 4.64 21 April 2006 4.12 4.54 4.66 28 April 2006 4.04 4.71 4.77 5 May 2006 4.03 5.00 4.92 12 May 2006 4.13 4.94 4.87 19 May 2006 4.48 4.92 4.96 26 May 2006 4.75 5.24 5.10 2 June 2006 4.76 5.26 5.15 9 June 2006 4.86 5.38 5.29 16 June 2006 4.97 5.48 5.18 23 June 2006 4.84 5.38 4.99 30 June 2006 4.73 5.05 4.97 7 July 2006 4.75 5.04 4.93 14 July 2006 4.89 4.88 4.82 21 July 2006 4.98 4.83 4.74 28 July 2006 4.95 4.56 4.63 4 August 2006 4.88 4.41 4.71 11 August 2006 4.54 4.36 4.49 18 August 2006 4.26 4.11 4.49 25 August 2006 4.27 4.03 4.36 1 September 2006 4.04 3.83 4.06 8 September 2006 3.92 3.79 3.91 15 September 2006 3.88 3.93 3.69 22 September 2006 4.04 4.00 3.67 29 September 2006 4.03 4.11 3.75 6 October 2006 3.95 4.24 3.87 13 October 2006 3.95 4.18 4.10 20 October 2006 3.97 4.11 3.97 27 October 2006 3.97 4.10 3.97 3 November 2006 3.97 4.00 4.25 10 November 2006 4.00 3.85 4.53 17 November 2006 3.94 3.92 4.62 24 November 2006 3.88 3.73 4.77 1 December 2006 3.85 3.70 4.78 8 December 2006 3.73 3.66 4.88 15 December 2006 3.50 3.67 5.04 22 December 2006 3.39 3.60 4.96 29 December 2006 3.31 3.61 5.15 5 January 2007 3.22 3.72 4.99 12 January 2007 3.27 3.76 5.07 19 January 2007 3.26 3.70 5.14 26 January 2007 3.03 3.77 4.90 2 February 2007 2.83 3.79 4.53 9 February 2007 2.80 3.66 4.49 16 February 2007 2.88 3.67 4.58 23 February 2007 2.87 3.57 4.66 2 March 2007 3.09 3.33 5.22 9 March 2007 3.11 3.26 5.13 16 March 2007 3.12 3.07 5.26 23 March 2007 3.12 2.87 5.06 30 March 2007 3.16 3.07 5.01 6 April 2007 3.06 3.09 4.94 13 April 2007 3.06 3.13 4.91 20 April 2007 3.20 3.11 4.82 27 April 2007 3.24 3.09 4.76 4 May 2007 3.47 3.13 4.90 11 May 2007 3.45 3.08 4.73 18 May 2007 3.44 3.02 4.62 25 May 2007 3.20 3.03 4.07 1 June 2007 3.18 2.99 3.87 8 June 2007 3.24 3.05 3.88 15 June 2007 3.40 3.03 4.52 22 June 2007 3.44 2.95 4.83 29 June 2007 3.60 3.06 4.99 6 July 2007 3.87 3.25 5.18 13 July 2007 4.00 3.43 5.60 20 July 2007 4.19 3.55 5.87 27 July 2007 4.42 3.55 6.03 3 August 2007 4.53 3.74 6.28 10 August 2007 4.67 3.91 6.41 17 August 2007 4.87 4.14 6.54 24 August 2007 5.12 4.31 6.69 31 August 2007 5.01 4.31 6.53 7 September 2007 4.87 4.30 6.18 14 September 2007 5.08 4.40 6.41 21 September 2007 5.30 4.65 6.74 28 September 2007 5.30 4.82 6.92 5 October 2007 5.20 4.77 6.60 12 October 2007 5.18 4.69 6.70 19 October 2007 5.03 4.74 6.64 26 October 2007 5.23 4.69 6.70 2 November 2007 5.11 4.74 6.78 9 November 2007 4.97 4.78 6.92 16 November 2007 4.77 4.58 6.92 23 November 2007 4.81 4.51 7.11 30 November 2007 4.87 4.49 7.95 7 December 2007 4.97 4.44 8.03 14 December 2007 5.30 4.34 8.66 21 December 2007 5.18 4.12 8.92 28 December 2007 5.14 4.11 9.44 4 January 2008 5.15 4.16 9.49 11 January 2008 5.19 4.11 9.49 18 January 2008 4.96 4.07 9.61 25 January 2008 5.43 4.16 9.88 1 February 2008 5.83 4.78 10.32 8 February 2008 6.06 4.96 10.50 15 February 2008 6.21 5.08 10.72 22 February 2008 6.28 5.13 10.45 29 February 2008 6.13 5.17 10.81 7 March 2008 6.07 5.12 10.84 14 March 2008 6.19 5.01 11.07 21 March 2008 6.27 5.03 11.34 28 March 2008 6.49 4.96 11.32 4 April 2008 6.57 5.09 11.52 11 April 2008 6.65 5.02 11.62 18 April 2008 6.44 4.86 11.51 25 April 2008 6.17 4.47 11.16 2 May 2008 5.99 5.15 10.97 9 May 2008 6.12 5.25 10.77 16 May 2008 6.41 5.63 10.44 23 May 2008 6.50 5.73 9.99 30 May 2008 6.14 5.80 9.64 6 June 2008 6.25 5.90 9.21 13 June 2008 6.32 6.05 8.77 20 June 2008 6.17 6.12 8.67 27 June 2008 6.20 6.20 8.58 4 July 2008 6.47 6.30 8.31 11 July 2008 6.59 6.47 8.17 18 July 2008 6.57 6.33 8.50 25 July 2008 6.86 5.78 8.59 * Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns. Return to table Figure: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility* Daily Percent Date Germany Japan U.S. 1 April 2008 6.63 5.14 11.61 2 April 2008 6.56 5.14 11.62 3 April 2008 6.56 5.13 11.49 4 April 2008 6.58 5.14 11.54 7 April 2008 6.66 5.09 11.63 8 April 2008 6.65 5.05 11.54 9 April 2008 6.61 5.00 11.63 10 April 2008 6.62 4.97 11.62 11 April 2008 6.73 4.99 11.66 14 April 2008 6.65 5.01 11.58 15 April 2008 6.58 4.94 11.55 16 April 2008 6.45 4.92 11.76 17 April 2008 6.22 4.89 11.36 18 April 2008 6.28 4.57 11.31 21 April 2008 6.27 4.46 11.31 22 April 2008 6.24 4.28 11.21 23 April 2008 6.23 4.21 11.10 24 April 2008 6.06 4.24 11.10 25 April 2008 6.06 5.17 11.09 28 April 2008 6.07 5.15 11.07 29 April 2008 5.98 5.19 11.00 30 April 2008 5.94 5.10 11.09 1 May 2008 5.93 5.10 10.83 2 May 2008 6.06 5.20 10.88 5 May 2008 6.10 5.20 10.88 6 May 2008 5.96 5.20 10.89 7 May 2008 6.00 5.24 10.91 8 May 2008 6.25 5.17 10.64 9 May 2008 6.30 5.42 10.54 12 May 2008 6.22 5.45 10.45 13 May 2008 6.33 5.45 10.58 14 May 2008 6.48 5.83 10.56 15 May 2008 6.49 5.74 10.32 16 May 2008 6.51 5.68 10.32 19 May 2008 6.54 5.69 10.09 20 May 2008 6.54 5.72 10.11 21 May 2008 6.66 5.74 10.12 22 May 2008 6.50 5.72 10.03 23 May 2008 6.24 5.78 9.59 26 May 2008 6.21 5.78 9.67 27 May 2008 6.12 5.82 9.63 28 May 2008 6.10 5.82 9.71 29 May 2008 6.13 5.81 9.63 30 May 2008 6.13 5.79 9.58 2 June 2008 6.13 5.87 9.51 3 June 2008 6.18 5.94 9.25 4 June 2008 6.23 5.96 9.09 5 June 2008 6.34 5.87 9.11 6 June 2008 6.38 5.87 9.09 9 June 2008 6.38 6.06 8.99 10 June 2008 6.30 6.15 8.78 11 June 2008 6.30 6.03 8.58 12 June 2008 6.31 6.02 8.78 13 June 2008 6.33 5.98 8.72 16 June 2008 6.34 5.97 8.66 17 June 2008 6.09 6.08 8.61 18 June 2008 6.08 6.17 8.72 19 June 2008 6.12 6.17 8.73 20 June 2008 6.21 6.19 8.63 23 June 2008 6.19 6.29 8.62 24 June 2008 6.09 6.14 8.57 25 June 2008 6.09 6.16 8.56 26 June 2008 6.33 6.17 8.62 27 June 2008 6.28 6.23 8.50 30 June 2008 6.37 6.23 8.43 1 July 2008 6.39 6.31 8.43 2 July 2008 6.40 6.33 8.27 3 July 2008 6.61 6.33 8.22 4 July 2008 6.57 6.32 8.21 7 July 2008 6.69 6.29 8.26 8 July 2008 6.65 6.50 8.22 9 July 2008 6.56 6.50 8.03 10 July 2008 6.54 6.53 8.02 11 July 2008 6.49 6.52 8.33 14 July 2008 6.51 6.46 8.39 15 July 2008 6.50 6.49 8.41 16 July 2008 6.49 6.49 8.57 17 July 2008 6.52 6.48 8.56 18 July 2008 6.82 5.75 8.56 21 July 2008 6.88 5.78 8.52 22 July 2008 6.78 5.78 8.55 23 July 2008 6.77 5.76 8.42 24 July 2008 6.98 5.76 8.75 25 July 2008 6.89 5.84 8.71 28 July 2008 6.99 5.78 8.80 29 July 2008 7.02 5.75 8.77 30 July 2008 7.02 5.70 ND As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. * Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns. Return to table Emerging Markets: Exchange Rates and Stock Market Indexes Exchange value of the dollar Stock market index Percent change since Latest Percent change since Latest June Greenbook* Mexico June Greenbook 10.0362 -2.5 27319 -8.7 1.5630 -2.8 59156 -13.6 2.14 -0.1 39500 7.7 China 6.8271 -0.8 2837 -3.6 Hong Kong 7.8035 -0.0 22691 -2.7 Korea 1013.5 -1.5 1578 -11.1 Taiwan 30.51 0.4 7070 -14.0 1.3691 -0.1 940 0.0 33.45 0.6 670 -12.5 Brazil Venezuela Singapore Thailand * Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar. Return to table Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar Weekly January 5, 2004 = 100 Period Mexico Brazil Korea China 9 January 2004 99.28 99.93 99.48 100.00 16 January 2004 98.46 98.48 99.14 100.00 ND ND 23 January 2004 ND ND 30 January 2004 99.66 101.17 98.65 100.00 6 February 2004 100.86 102.62 98.02 100.00 13 February 2004 100.25 102.11 97.48 100.00 20 February 2004 27 February 2004 ND ND 100.38 103.04 ND ND 98.78 100.00 5 March 2004 99.82 101.11 98.57 100.00 12 March 2004 99.64 101.17 98.49 100.00 19 March 2004 100.22 101.77 97.79 100.00 26 March 2004 100.03 102.45 97.18 100.00 2 April 2004 101.67 101.86 96.33 100.00 9 April 2004 101.76 100.75 96.08 100.00 16 April 2004 102.32 101.49 96.61 100.00 23 April 2004 102.83 102.23 97.04 100.00 30 April 2004 103.21 102.69 97.49 100.00 7 May 2004 104.04 104.78 98.18 100.00 14 May 2004 105.60 108.67 99.57 100.00 21 May 2004 104.87 110.27 98.93 100.00 28 May 2004 104.35 110.48 98.54 100.00 4 June 2004 ND ND ND ND 11 June 2004 103.33 109.25 97.28 100.00 18 June 2004 103.50 109.91 97.36 100.00 25 June 2004 102.89 109.21 97.01 100.00 2 July 2004 104.47 108.37 96.79 100.00 9 July 2004 ND ND ND ND 16 July 2004 104.34 105.95 96.91 100.00 23 July 2004 103.86 105.90 97.41 100.00 30 July 2004 104.21 106.71 97.88 100.00 6 August 2004 103.90 106.79 97.73 100.00 13 August 2004 103.74 106.05 97.15 100.00 20 August 2004 103.25 104.66 97.05 100.00 27 August 2004 103.42 103.47 96.82 100.00 3 September 2004 104.05 102.71 96.56 100.00 10 September 2004 17 September 2004 ND ND 104.88 101.44 ND ND 96.16 100.00 24 September 2004 103.84 100.42 96.29 100.00 1 October 2004 103.63 100.05 96.62 100.00 8 October 2004 102.66 99.06 96.50 100.00 ND ND ND ND 22 October 2004 15 October 2004 104.22 100.23 95.81 99.99 29 October 2004 104.68 100.27 94.52 99.99 5 November 2004 104.06 99.08 93.48 99.99 12 November 2004 ND ND ND ND 19 November 2004 103.17 97.07 90.56 99.99 26 November 2004 ND ND ND ND 3 December 2004 101.69 95.19 87.71 99.99 10 December 2004 102.17 96.38 88.26 99.99 17 December 2004 102.24 95.95 88.84 99.99 24 December 2004 101.44 94.19 88.31 99.99 31 December 2004 101.75 93.58 87.34 99.99 7 January 2005 102.97 94.45 87.77 99.99 14 January 2005 101.95 94.52 87.56 99.99 21 January 2005 ND ND ND ND 28 January 2005 102.45 93.38 86.34 99.99 4 February 2005 101.52 91.24 86.13 99.99 11 February 2005 101.61 91.38 86.92 99.99 18 February 2005 101.21 90.10 86.03 99.99 25 February 2005 ND ND ND ND 100.78 92.17 84.31 99.99 4 March 2005 11 March 2005 100.12 94.41 84.00 99.99 18 March 2005 101.67 95.98 84.11 99.99 25 March 2005 102.17 95.56 84.79 99.99 1 April 2005 102.19 94.11 85.43 99.99 8 April 2005 101.74 91.46 85.06 99.99 15 April 2005 100.81 90.18 85.21 99.99 22 April 2005 100.62 89.89 84.74 99.99 29 April 2005 100.73 88.44 83.88 99.99 6 May 2005 99.87 86.97 83.87 99.99 13 May 2005 100.06 86.29 83.83 99.99 20 May 2005 99.79 86.19 84.37 99.99 27 May 2005 99.50 84.51 84.04 99.99 3 June 2005 ND ND ND ND 10 June 2005 98.76 86.27 84.31 99.99 17 June 2005 98.39 85.13 84.98 99.99 24 June 2005 98.05 83.35 84.78 99.99 1 July 2005 98.02 82.61 86.14 99.99 8 July 2005 ND ND ND ND 15 July 2005 96.96 81.89 87.00 99.99 22 July 2005 96.51 82.25 86.79 99.59 29 July 2005 96.75 84.66 86.18 97.97 5 August 2005 96.29 81.40 85.39 97.91 12 August 2005 96.45 81.18 85.04 97.91 19 August 2005 96.70 82.97 85.54 97.87 26 August 2005 98.26 84.38 86.12 97.87 2 September 2005 98.05 82.98 86.63 97.82 ND ND ND 97.78 16 September 2005 9 September 2005 98.00 81.00 86.10 97.75 23 September 2005 98.45 79.96 86.37 97.74 30 September 2005 98.56 78.33 87.06 97.77 7 October 2005 97.67 78.87 87.28 97.76 14 October 2005 ND ND ND ND 21 October 2005 98.77 78.61 88.37 97.75 28 October 2005 98.77 79.38 87.75 97.71 4 November 2005 97.75 78.25 87.56 97.68 11 November 2005 ND ND ND ND 18 November 2005 96.95 77.08 86.89 97.67 25 November 2005 ND ND ND ND 95.78 77.04 86.99 97.63 2 December 2005 9 December 2005 95.44 77.01 86.80 97.60 16 December 2005 97.25 80.00 85.58 97.55 23 December 2005 97.03 81.67 85.21 97.56 30 December 2005 ND ND ND ND 6 January 2006 13 January 2006 ND ND ND ND 96.19 79.18 82.17 97.46 20 January 2006 ND ND ND ND 27 January 2006 95.41 78.17 81.62 97.41 3 February 2006 95.06 77.52 81.09 97.39 10 February 2006 95.35 76.30 81.21 97.32 17 February 2006 95.46 74.54 81.63 97.24 24 February 2006 ND ND ND ND 95.42 74.34 81.36 97.14 3 March 2006 10 March 2006 97.25 75.52 82.12 97.20 17 March 2006 97.07 74.21 81.83 97.14 24 March 2006 98.40 75.27 81.58 97.00 31 March 2006 99.36 77.01 81.77 96.94 7 April 2006 99.81 74.71 80.47 96.83 14 April 2006 100.73 74.96 80.32 96.80 21 April 2006 100.29 74.35 79.69 96.82 28 April 2006 100.90 73.81 79.16 96.85 5 May 2006 99.90 72.31 78.77 96.81 12 May 2006 99.33 72.80 78.11 96.71 19 May 2006 101.38 76.31 79.14 96.73 26 May 2006 102.00 80.32 79.51 96.93 2 June 2006 ND ND ND ND 9 June 2006 103.27 79.29 79.54 96.78 16 June 2006 103.83 79.42 80.43 96.69 23 June 2006 104.01 78.35 80.26 96.65 30 June 2006 103.45 77.36 80.27 96.62 ND ND ND ND 14 July 2006 7 July 2006 100.08 76.71 79.51 96.55 21 July 2006 99.31 76.76 80.04 96.61 28 July 2006 99.22 76.70 79.91 96.44 4 August 2006 99.56 76.22 80.57 96.33 11 August 2006 98.78 75.97 80.60 96.30 18 August 2006 98.07 74.95 80.78 96.45 25 August 2006 98.79 75.04 80.34 96.28 1 September 2006 99.11 74.90 80.65 96.17 8 September 2006 ND ND ND ND 15 September 2006 100.04 75.69 80.34 96.02 22 September 2006 99.75 76.01 79.68 95.81 29 September 2006 100.33 76.71 79.21 95.53 6 October 2006 100.25 75.77 79.56 95.49 13 October 2006 ND ND ND ND 20 October 2006 98.43 74.72 80.17 95.54 27 October 2006 97.97 74.85 80.02 95.41 3 November 2006 98.02 74.88 78.87 95.12 10 November 2006 98.68 74.89 78.60 95.06 17 November 2006 99.02 75.43 78.65 95.06 24 November 2006 ND ND ND ND 1 December 2006 100.14 76.07 77.99 94.69 8 December 2006 98.96 75.22 77.18 94.52 15 December 2006 98.29 74.97 77.39 94.57 22 December 2006 98.50 75.35 77.84 94.46 29 December 2006 5 January 2007 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 12 January 2007 99.91 75.15 78.72 94.28 19 January 2007 ND ND ND ND 26 January 2007 99.71 74.59 78.72 93.92 2 February 2007 100.29 74.13 78.81 93.83 9 February 2007 99.47 73.19 78.35 93.66 16 February 2007 99.74 73.45 78.60 93.69 23 February 2007 ND ND ND ND 2 March 2007 101.33 73.84 78.99 93.56 9 March 2007 101.32 74.00 79.43 93.55 16 March 2007 101.44 73.24 79.24 93.50 23 March 2007 100.65 72.42 78.81 93.42 30 March 2007 100.47 72.14 78.84 93.41 6 April 2007 99.93 71.21 78.40 93.37 13 April 2007 99.95 70.95 78.16 93.36 20 April 2007 99.90 71.07 77.91 93.28 27 April 2007 99.55 70.91 77.80 93.34 4 May 2007 99.20 70.95 77.94 93.10 11 May 2007 98.45 70.71 77.51 92.96 18 May 2007 98.20 69.14 77.72 92.75 25 May 2007 98.06 68.11 78.07 92.49 1 June 2007 ND ND ND ND 8 June 2007 98.67 68.30 77.84 92.42 15 June 2007 99.11 67.67 78.03 92.35 22 June 2007 97.99 66.93 77.81 92.06 29 June 2007 98.34 67.76 77.66 92.04 ND ND ND ND 13 July 2007 6 July 2007 98.00 65.96 77.08 91.57 20 July 2007 97.82 65.12 76.88 91.40 27 July 2007 98.85 65.59 76.87 91.39 3 August 2007 99.57 65.67 77.38 91.46 10 August 2007 99.70 66.81 77.57 91.44 17 August 2007 101.00 70.30 78.67 91.73 24 August 2007 100.74 70.35 79.06 91.64 31 August 2007 100.61 68.93 78.81 91.22 7 September 2007 100.59 68.51 78.70 91.15 14 September 2007 100.91 67.13 78.24 90.84 21 September 2007 100.25 65.79 77.57 90.76 28 September 2007 99.38 64.81 77.08 90.72 5 October 2007 98.96 63.69 76.80 90.72 12 October 2007 98.45 62.97 76.95 90.72 19 October 2007 98.30 63.24 76.89 90.76 26 October 2007 98.37 62.91 76.78 90.56 2 November 2007 97.25 61.21 76.09 90.20 9 November 2007 97.93 60.88 76.11 89.86 ND ND ND ND 16 November 2007 23 November 2007 99.86 62.22 77.82 89.63 30 November 2007 99.50 63.13 77.87 89.26 7 December 2007 98.75 62.60 77.34 89.44 14 December 2007 98.32 61.94 77.65 89.13 21 December 2007 98.57 63.12 78.76 89.07 28 December 2007 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND 11 January 2008 4 January 2008 99.37 61.65 78.69 87.79 18 January 2008 99.35 61.73 78.96 87.46 25 January 2008 ND ND ND ND 1 February 2008 98.49 61.83 79.24 86.86 8 February 2008 98.15 61.46 79.05 86.80 15 February 2008 97.78 61.22 79.24 86.84 22 February 2008 ND ND ND ND 29 February 2008 97.55 58.94 79.07 86.19 7 March 2008 97.68 58.67 79.73 85.86 14 March 2008 98.11 59.40 81.89 85.75 21 March 2008 97.51 60.17 84.72 85.37 28 March 2008 97.13 60.72 82.96 84.94 4 April 2008 96.20 60.46 82.11 84.75 11 April 2008 95.87 59.11 81.82 84.57 18 April 2008 95.19 58.52 83.07 84.51 25 April 2008 95.37 58.19 83.46 84.53 2 May 2008 95.32 58.69 84.15 84.45 9 May 2008 95.64 58.51 86.19 84.43 16 May 2008 95.19 57.97 87.53 84.47 23 May 2008 94.38 57.82 87.52 84.05 30 May 2008 ND ND ND ND 6 June 2008 93.86 56.98 85.76 83.84 13 June 2008 94.43 57.20 86.69 83.53 20 June 2008 93.69 56.35 86.39 83.18 27 June 2008 93.54 56.07 87.02 82.96 4 July 2008 94.14 56.15 87.72 82.85 11 July 2008 93.77 56.18 85.05 82.75 18 July 2008 93.27 55.70 84.57 82.43 25 July 2008 91.62 55.30 84.79 82.46 Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar Daily June 18, 2008 = 100 Date 1 April 2008 Mexico Brazil 102.98 108.22 Korea China 95.12 101.88 2 April 2008 102.51 107.17 94.80 101.98 3 April 2008 102.65 106.98 94.94 101.93 4 April 2008 102.64 106.29 94.58 101.93 7 April 2008 102.39 105.58 94.69 101.73 8 April 2008 102.59 105.56 94.80 101.72 9 April 2008 102.55 105.13 94.80 101.74 10 April 2008 102.48 104.27 94.73 101.58 11 April 2008 102.26 104.49 94.81 101.80 14 April 2008 101.80 104.39 95.15 101.70 15 April 2008 101.85 104.71 96.31 101.63 16 April 2008 101.63 103.93 96.10 101.60 17 April 2008 101.78 103.34 96.34 101.48 18 April 2008 101.62 103.43 97.16 101.81 21 April 2008 102.24 103.56 96.92 101.71 22 April 2008 102.16 102.85 96.85 101.55 23 April 2008 101.92 103.00 96.25 101.56 24 April 2008 101.57 103.74 96.74 101.65 25 April 2008 101.69 103.72 96.58 101.85 28 April 2008 101.43 104.29 96.80 101.74 29 April 2008 102.31 106.04 97.31 101.49 30 April 2008 102.10 105.36 97.64 101.52 1 May 2008 101.89 103.29 97.55 101.53 2 May 2008 101.59 102.33 98.03 101.52 5 May 2008 101.72 103.18 97.92 101.44 98.62 101.51 6 May 2008 101.92 103.21 7 May 2008 102.40 104.07 100.07 101.51 8 May 2008 102.33 104.36 101.09 101.71 9 May 2008 102.68 104.92 101.43 101.53 12 May 2008 101.86 103.62 101.34 101.54 13 May 2008 101.87 103.18 101.72 101.55 14 May 2008 101.89 103.29 101.72 101.70 15 May 2008 101.68 102.67 101.34 101.63 16 May 2008 101.32 102.13 100.75 101.54 19 May 2008 100.79 102.37 101.14 101.28 20 May 2008 101.00 102.80 101.72 101.31 21 May 2008 100.69 102.56 100.95 101.12 22 May 2008 100.87 102.95 101.43 100.87 23 May 2008 100.98 102.87 101.58 100.86 26 May 2008 27 May 2008 ND ND ND ND 101.00 103.86 101.14 100.91 28 May 2008 100.47 103.70 100.41 100.85 29 May 2008 100.11 102.41 100.07 100.81 30 May 2008 100.34 101.02 99.93 100.84 2 June 2008 100.44 101.35 99.32 100.73 3 June 2008 99.96 100.86 98.79 100.76 4 June 2008 100.25 101.27 99.00 101.18 5 June 2008 100.17 101.60 99.39 100.93 6 June 2008 100.72 101.08 100.12 100.59 9 June 2008 100.68 100.86 100.27 100.59 10 June 2008 100.91 101.96 99.83 100.62 11 June 2008 101.38 101.97 100.10 100.40 12 June 2008 100.92 101.89 100.39 100.36 13 June 2008 100.70 101.42 101.43 100.32 16 June 2008 100.39 101.00 100.90 100.13 17 June 2008 100.22 100.25 18 June 2008 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 19 June 2008 100.23 20 June 2008 23 June 2008 99.80 99.68 99.28 100.19 99.88 99.93 99.56 100.22 99.96 100.03 100.30 100.73 99.88 24 June 2008 99.99 99.64 100.32 99.82 25 June 2008 99.96 99.43 100.49 99.76 26 June 2008 99.79 98.99 101.17 99.72 27 June 2008 100.07 99.69 101.21 99.71 30 June 2008 100.09 99.11 101.71 99.67 1 July 2008 100.88 100.01 102.06 99.69 2 July 2008 100.75 99.47 100.70 99.59 3 July 2008 100.73 99.83 101.48 99.58 4 July 2008 100.59 100.32 102.05 99.66 7 July 2008 100.27 99.63 8 July 2008 100.43 100.14 99.45 101.48 99.71 99.55 9 July 2008 100.09 99.87 97.16 99.73 10 July 2008 100.11 99.96 96.98 99.43 11 July 2008 100.14 99.64 97.19 99.30 14 July 2008 100.01 99.01 97.53 99.46 15 July 2008 100.27 99.05 97.77 99.11 16 July 2008 99.66 99.17 97.81 98.96 17 July 2008 99.32 98.69 98.23 99.08 18 July 2008 99.12 98.82 98.42 99.05 21 July 2008 98.81 98.47 98.81 99.20 22 July 2008 98.37 98.46 98.52 99.17 23 July 2008 97.60 98.45 98.03 99.21 24 July 2008 97.40 98.05 97.82 99.23 25 July 2008 97.39 97.76 97.84 99.08 28 July 2008 97.86 97.91 97.74 99.29 29 July 2008 97.75 97.68 97.74 99.19 30 July 2008 97.50 97.15 98.47 99.20 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. Figure: Stock Market Indexes Weekly January 5, 2004 = 100 Period 9 January 2004 Mexico Brazil Korea Hong Kong 103.11 105.20 100.57 101.17 102.25 16 January 2004 103.81 104.87 102.96 23 January 2004 106.53 104.08 ND ND 30 January 2004 107.96 103.96 104.20 103.81 96.96 102.45 100.75 13 February 2004 6 February 2004 112.28 100.62 106.01 ND 104.54 20 February 2004 113.83 97.04 106.84 106.59 ND 105.75 105.65 27 February 2004 112.36 5 March 2004 115.01 100.48 12 March 2004 19 March 2004 ND 104.59 112.76 97.91 106.45 101.71 112.54 97.46 105.11 99.09 26 March 2004 115.49 94.81 104.57 96.61 2 April 2004 119.68 99.19 106.66 97.13 9 April 2004 ND ND ND 16 April 2004 121.18 99.11 ND ND 23 April 2004 120.70 ND 111.90 94.77 30 April 2004 116.63 91.41 108.61 92.89 ND 7 May 2004 114.04 86.91 ND 92.15 14 May 2004 109.66 81.52 96.04 87.96 21 May 2004 110.56 81.84 92.30 86.77 28 May 2004 113.69 85.54 ND ND 4 June 2004 113.46 87.35 96.46 92.97 11 June 2004 116.51 ND 95.79 95.08 18 June 2004 115.36 89.70 90.89 92.62 25 June 2004 115.17 91.59 91.66 ND 2 July 2004 115.80 93.76 93.89 ND 9 July 2004 114.32 ND 91.45 94.08 16 July 2004 112.87 97.48 89.94 92.58 23 July 2004 113.01 97.66 90.30 94.36 30 July 2004 114.10 97.83 89.43 94.37 6 August 2004 114.28 98.00 88.65 95.05 13 August 2004 111.54 95.83 91.89 95.33 20 August 2004 113.90 100.45 94.51 94.54 27 August 2004 115.79 101.55 97.18 97.61 3 September 2004 116.92 100.95 98.79 99.50 10 September 2004 119.31 99.92 100.32 ND 100.17 103.32 101.20 101.72 17 September 2004 ND 24 September 2004 122.70 102.34 102.19 1 October 2004 123.71 103.63 ND ND 8 October 2004 125.67 107.30 107.26 102.30 15 October 2004 124.31 101.22 ND 103.97 22 October 2004 125.99 102.45 101.48 29 October 2004 129.27 102.11 5 November 2004 133.04 ND 99.51 99.46 ND 103.27 102.52 12 November 2004 134.43 104.65 104.08 104.82 19 November 2004 135.64 ND 106.47 106.25 26 November 2004 135.49 109.62 104.69 107.10 3 December 2004 137.80 112.17 106.47 108.82 10 December 2004 137.91 111.43 104.59 108.30 17 December 2004 141.16 113.93 104.63 107.69 24 December 2004 143.86 ND 106.96 109.15 31 December 2004 146.63 ND ND ND 7 January 2005 144.13 110.83 106.98 106.62 14 January 2005 140.96 109.51 107.49 104.07 21 January 2005 145.90 107.20 111.37 104.46 28 January 2005 146.70 ND 111.92 104.38 4 February 2005 151.20 110.24 112.61 104.51 11 February 2005 154.39 ND ND 18 February 2005 154.39 118.85 117.99 107.78 25 February 2005 154.72 122.66 119.38 108.23 ND 4 March 2005 156.52 126.47 ND 107.23 11 March 2005 154.81 127.99 122.27 106.64 18 March 2005 149.13 124.03 120.51 106.42 25 March 2005 ND ND 117.66 ND 1 April 2005 143.92 117.58 117.45 ND 8 April 2005 140.77 116.14 ND ND 15 April 2005 139.59 113.89 117.71 105.39 22 April 2005 135.30 ND 113.45 103.94 29 April 2005 140.59 111.44 112.85 106.52 6 May 2005 142.12 112.20 ND ND 13 May 2005 141.35 109.54 112.54 107.46 20 May 2005 143.54 109.64 113.84 ND 27 May 2005 148.31 ND 115.25 104.98 3 June 2005 149.14 115.47 117.84 106.45 10 June 2005 149.46 111.13 ND 106.77 17 June 2005 152.64 114.05 120.93 106.90 24 June 2005 152.84 113.33 121.35 108.43 1 July 2005 153.15 112.25 121.61 ND 8 July 2005 155.73 109.70 123.97 108.34 15 July 2005 158.36 113.66 127.56 110.12 22 July 2005 161.11 113.64 130.11 112.48 29 July 2005 161.13 113.03 133.22 113.89 5 August 2005 165.46 118.33 134.76 115.95 12 August 2005 166.51 120.03 134.58 117.49 19 August 2005 166.16 120.67 ND 117.71 26 August 2005 165.89 120.51 133.74 115.24 2 September 2005 162.93 124.14 132.05 115.38 9 September 2005 171.02 ND 137.80 116.79 ND 130.27 141.51 115.92 16 September 2005 23 September 2005 177.51 136.29 ND ND 30 September 2005 180.08 139.12 147.96 117.71 7 October 2005 177.81 135.89 ND 116.30 14 October 2005 171.99 ND 147.36 ND 21 October 2005 170.57 130.21 142.25 111.35 28 October 2005 175.56 131.45 142.02 110.54 4 November 2005 179.80 111.87 ND 145.50 11 November 2005 181.77 137.07 149.58 111.86 18 November 2005 185.52 ND 153.39 113.15 25 November 2005 190.46 141.15 154.84 115.34 2 December 2005 191.98 142.91 157.42 115.85 9 December 2005 196.65 146.21 160.24 115.45 16 December 2005 ND 148.37 161.70 115.33 23 December 2005 201.18 148.30 163.69 116.78 30 December 2005 201.71 ND ND 6 January 2006 209.66 154.57 169.75 ND 13 January 2006 215.20 158.63 170.31 120.37 ND 20 January 2006 209.98 162.19 166.23 120.21 27 January 2006 214.02 119.63 3 February 2006 215.10 169.02 ND 162.70 ND ND 10 February 2006 ND 164.17 161.19 118.84 17 February 2006 206.42 166.33 160.17 118.54 24 February 2006 213.28 171.06 164.12 120.77 3 March 2006 215.26 122.06 ND ND 10 March 2006 210.18 165.98 160.34 119.74 17 March 2006 215.82 168.22 162.01 120.43 24 March 2006 ND 167.97 160.82 121.46 31 March 2006 217.22 167.12 162.41 121.65 7 April 2006 223.79 173.57 168.75 ND 14 April 2006 ND ND 170.04 21 April 2006 225.76 ND 174.08 ND 28 April 2006 231.71 178.23 174.39 128.19 5 May 2006 ND ND ND ND ND 12 May 2006 244.50 183.83 176.28 131.58 19 May 2006 231.87 171.55 168.30 126.23 26 May 2006 218.30 164.49 160.66 121.62 2 June 2006 216.76 166.43 ND ND 9 June 2006 209.05 159.57 ND 121.31 16 June 2006 195.99 ND 149.18 119.00 23 June 2006 204.70 152.42 149.79 120.99 30 June 2006 210.18 157.68 152.47 122.19 7 July 2006 226.31 163.72 155.28 125.89 14 July 2006 217.15 160.06 156.21 126.19 21 July 2006 218.26 158.74 ND 124.78 28 July 2006 227.54 163.75 155.70 128.49 4 August 2006 228.69 166.19 157.19 130.49 11 August 2006 229.39 166.50 158.04 131.98 18 August 2006 235.32 166.31 ND 133.36 25 August 2006 236.64 161.38 160.82 130.85 1 September 2006 240.60 162.67 163.17 132.42 8 September 2006 238.68 ND 164.62 132.95 15 September 2006 240.23 161.10 162.97 131.72 22 September 2006 245.07 157.89 165.75 134.51 134.48 29 September 2006 247.23 160.25 165.08 6 October 2006 249.56 166.78 13 October 2006 255.69 ND ND ND 161.48 137.21 20 October 2006 261.20 173.20 164.56 138.67 27 October 2006 263.37 175.78 166.14 140.02 3 November 2006 ND ND 166.55 ND 10 November 2006 270.22 182.82 168.47 145.37 17 November 2006 275.01 ND 170.84 146.37 24 November 2006 ND ND 171.62 147.23 1 December 2006 ND 184.62 172.93 144.98 8 December 2006 289.89 191.40 171.38 144.95 15 December 2006 ND 193.32 169.67 145.45 22 December 2006 289.98 193.67 174.18 147.54 29 December 2006 ND ND ND ND 5 January 2007 ND ND ND ND 296.03 189.74 166.35 151.47 12 January 2007 19 January 2007 299.03 190.86 167.55 154.96 26 January 2007 305.11 ND 166.56 158.88 2 February 2007 311.42 197.88 167.21 156.55 9 February 2007 ND 199.96 172.89 158.71 16 February 2007 321.53 202.21 173.80 156.92 23 February 2007 324.51 ND ND ND 2 March 2007 304.08 195.26 ND 152.39 9 March 2007 299.85 191.28 170.79 146.02 16 March 2007 304.72 192.74 173.27 146.92 23 March 2007 ND 200.18 175.37 149.97 30 March 2007 321.68 201.82 175.86 151.71 6 April 2007 13 April 2007 ND ND 178.93 ND 335.21 210.51 183.47 ND 20 April 2007 336.40 217.92 185.46 158.69 27 April 2007 334.08 219.39 187.90 158.18 4 May 2007 11 May 2007 ND ND ND ND 338.06 225.44 193.27 159.42 160.99 18 May 2007 342.21 228.54 194.72 25 May 2007 347.96 230.43 ND ND 1 June 2007 354.54 233.51 203.85 157.67 8 June 2007 359.94 ND 159.47 15 June 2007 361.91 236.85 211.38 ND 159.50 22 June 2007 361.31 242.67 217.54 ND 29 June 2007 351.72 241.10 212.01 167.69 6 July 2007 363.63 248.74 221.43 ND 13 July 2007 363.78 ND 231.54 175.65 20 July 2007 363.35 256.77 ND 177.10 27 July 2007 351.47 246.52 238.72 178.36 3 August 2007 344.01 241.06 228.77 174.33 10 August 2007 340.04 238.99 227.05 170.10 17 August 2007 324.21 222.06 ND 163.52 24 August 2007 330.66 227.77 214.00 171.56 31 August 2007 338.86 236.09 222.63 180.59 7 September 2007 348.39 ND 228.03 184.37 14 September 2007 341.47 240.62 223.63 187.15 21 September 2007 344.70 252.15 229.13 194.19 28 September 2007 344.66 266.26 ND ND 5 October 2007 354.05 273.72 ND ND 12 October 2007 363.36 ND 246.41 219.20 19 October 2007 367.30 278.05 242.70 ND 26 October 2007 363.50 279.05 237.59 2 November 2007 226.59 ND 249.06 240.73 9 November 2007 337.07 284.12 244.71 223.96 16 November 2007 331.43 ND 235.48 216.84 23 November 2007 ND ND 221.93 206.68 30 November 2007 327.63 272.12 226.51 214.27 7 December 2007 347.59 287.85 234.10 223.42 ND 285.15 232.25 217.69 14 December 2007 21 December 2007 ND 331.32 273.97 ND 207.61 28 December 2007 ND ND ND ND 4 January 2008 ND ND ND ND 11 January 2008 323.46 277.11 221.06 209.15 18 January 2008 311.46 263.24 210.56 195.42 25 January 2008 306.37 ND 200.86 181.97 1 February 2008 323.29 266.42 196.90 183.89 8 February 2008 ND ND ND ND 15 February 2008 328.53 274.57 201.63 179.74 22 February 2008 331.56 282.69 206.18 182.08 29 February 2008 339.45 289.35 208.40 185.14 7 March 2008 329.76 283.02 203.53 177.87 14 March 2008 330.47 275.18 197.58 174.79 21 March 2008 ND ND 195.47 ND 28 March 2008 339.64 270.60 203.57 ND 4 April 2008 357.00 281.34 210.62 ND 11 April 2008 357.92 283.63 ND 187.20 18 April 2008 358.49 283.72 213.28 184.61 25 April 2008 360.02 193.99 2 May 2008 ND ND 218.73 ND ND ND 9 May 2008 350.12 310.77 ND 197.72 16 May 2008 353.57 316.52 ND ND 23 May 2008 355.54 ND 224.96 193.97 30 May 2008 358.78 320.93 221.45 186.96 6 June 2008 357.11 313.28 ND 187.60 13 June 2008 347.39 301.52 214.82 ND 20 June 2008 338.57 297.64 212.53 176.78 27 June 2008 332.99 287.76 207.41 172.70 4 July 2008 326.83 274.59 197.78 ND 11 July 2008 318.71 ND 187.78 167.54 18 July 2008 315.95 270.79 184.71 166.12 25 July 2008 311.15 262.40 192.69 175.35 Figure: Stock Market Indexes Daily June 18, 2008 = 100 Date Mexico Brazil Korea Hong Kong 1 April 2008 106.22 91.73 95.95 99.19 2 April 2008 105.15 92.59 98.20 102.34 3 April 2008 105.90 93.77 99.41 104.02 4 April 2008 105.41 94.17 99.57 ND 7 April 2008 105.98 93.77 99.97 105.37 8 April 2008 106.02 94.30 98.91 104.23 9 April 2008 104.99 92.75 ND 102.82 10 April 2008 105.76 92.83 99.47 103.69 11 April 2008 104.60 91.45 100.31 105.75 14 April 2008 104.23 90.82 102.08 98.45 15 April 2008 104.85 91.50 98.20 102.47 16 April 2008 106.63 93.74 99.12 102.37 17 April 2008 106.22 94.32 99.69 104.00 94.86 18 April 2008 106.25 99.87 103.74 21 April 2008 107.25 ND 101.49 105.98 22 April 2008 107.07 95.58 100.75 106.92 23 April 2008 106.43 94.90 101.50 108.42 24 April 2008 106.09 94.36 101.42 110.10 25 April 2008 103.62 95.25 102.85 109.39 28 April 2008 102.33 95.97 102.76 110.03 29 April 2008 101.15 93.26 102.11 111.10 30 April 2008 101.19 99.17 102.89 110.42 1 May 2008 2 May 2008 ND ND ND ND 102.09 101.36 104.18 112.50 5 May 2008 103.45 102.54 ND 112.25 6 May 2008 104.34 102.57 104.79 112.59 7 May 2008 102.80 100.85 104.50 109.79 8 May 2008 102.76 101.88 104.16 109.11 9 May 2008 102.50 101.77 102.79 107.45 12 May 2008 102.38 102.89 ND ND 13 May 2008 103.22 103.02 103.87 109.55 14 May 2008 104.72 102.32 103.92 109.46 15 May 2008 105.41 104.46 106.29 109.38 16 May 2008 105.22 106.33 106.47 109.83 19 May 2008 106.25 107.31 106.27 110.36 20 May 2008 105.35 107.42 105.58 107.90 21 May 2008 104.01 105.64 104.14 109.15 22 May 2008 104.41 ND 103.45 107.36 23 May 2008 103.82 104.40 103.03 105.95 26 May 2008 104.64 104.66 101.49 103.44 27 May 2008 104.98 103.73 102.88 104.10 28 May 2008 105.75 106.89 101.78 103.96 29 May 2008 106.39 104.91 103.78 104.54 30 May 2008 106.85 106.07 104.39 105.18 2 June 2008 105.72 105.06 104.14 106.45 3 June 2008 105.24 102.30 102.55 104.50 4 June 2008 105.09 100.34 103.36 103.42 5 June 2008 106.02 104.05 103.28 103.98 6 June 2008 104.09 101.97 ND 104.61 9 June 2008 103.37 101.23 101.96 ND 10 June 2008 103.25 99.03 100.01 100.21 11 June 2008 101.74 97.60 100.43 100.01 12 June 2008 101.84 98.37 98.04 98.71 13 June 2008 101.63 98.20 98.49 96.86 16 June 2008 101.43 98.32 99.25 98.73 17 June 2008 100.00 100.00 98.68 98.85 98.03 100.00 100.00 18 June 2008 98.97 19 June 2008 99.74 97.30 98.12 97.74 20 June 2008 98.69 94.41 97.57 97.51 23 June 2008 98.46 94.45 96.70 97.38 24 June 2008 97.88 93.76 96.43 96.27 25 June 2008 98.81 96.22 96.82 97.04 26 June 2008 97.58 93.44 96.82 96.27 27 June 2008 97.89 93.99 94.95 94.50 30 June 2008 98.23 95.00 94.41 94.75 1 July 2008 97.65 92.63 93.93 ND 2 July 2008 95.84 89.29 91.52 93.05 3 July 2008 95.12 86.61 90.55 91.07 4 July 2008 94.70 86.74 88.94 91.85 7 July 2008 94.85 86.34 89.04 93.94 8 July 2008 95.41 86.99 86.44 90.98 9 July 2008 93.89 ND 85.64 93.48 10 July 2008 93.16 88.04 86.66 93.55 11 July 2008 92.28 87.89 88.35 95.11 14 July 2008 91.95 88.72 87.85 94.38 15 July 2008 91.68 89.15 85.07 90.78 16 July 2008 93.46 90.68 84.97 90.99 17 July 2008 94.29 87.83 85.99 93.18 18 July 2008 94.13 87.65 85.11 93.78 21 July 2008 93.53 88.80 88.10 96.60 22 July 2008 92.20 87.16 88.00 96.58 23 July 2008 92.38 86.83 89.72 99.18 24 July 2008 89.82 83.92 91.66 98.98 25 July 2008 90.51 83.58 90.07 97.49 28 July 2008 89.33 83.10 90.09 97.26 29 July 2008 91.29 84.81 88.34 95.42 30 July 2008 ND 86.44 88.93 97.28 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. Emerging Markets: Short-Term Interest Rates and Dollar-Denominated Bond Spreads Percent Short-term interest rates* Change since June Greenbook Latest Mexico Dollar-denominated bond spreads** Change since June Greenbook July 7, 2008 7.34 0.00 1.86 0.55 Brazil 12.80 0.70 2.39 0.52 Argentina 13.13 -2.44 6.16 0.44 China … … 1.48 0.11 Korea 5.10 0.00 … … Taiwan 2.59 0.05 … … Singapore 3.50 0.00 … … Hong Kong 1.92 0.01 … … * One month interest rate except 1-week rate for Korea. No reliable short-term interest rate exists for China. Return to table ** EMBI+ or EMBI Global Spreads over similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries. Return to table … Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong have no outstanding dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Return to table Figure: EMBI+ Spreads* Weekly Percent Period Overall Mexico Brazil 9 January 2004 3.90 1.83 4.21 16 January 2004 3.99 1.89 4.29 23 January 2004 4.04 ND ND 30 January 2004 4.14 1.98 4.55 6 February 2004 4.43 2.03 5.31 13 February 2004 4.36 1.92 5.17 20 February 2004 4.44 ND ND 27 February 2004 4.51 1.89 5.76 5 March 2004 4.38 1.84 5.51 12 March 2004 4.39 1.87 5.47 19 March 2004 4.40 1.89 5.54 26 March 2004 4.39 1.83 5.66 2 April 2004 4.29 1.79 5.60 9 April 2004 ND ND ND 16 April 2004 4.24 1.72 5.71 23 April 2004 4.42 1.79 6.15 30 April 2004 4.69 1.99 6.49 7 May 2004 5.09 2.22 7.06 14 May 2004 5.39 2.30 7.63 21 May 2004 5.13 2.07 7.29 28 May 2004 5.08 2.08 7.12 4 June 2004 5.03 ND ND 11 June 2004 4.88 2.08 6.66 18 June 2004 4.96 2.15 6.75 25 June 2004 4.85 2.15 6.51 2 July 2004 4.91 2.14 6.48 9 July 2004 4.86 ND ND 16 July 2004 4.72 2.09 6.10 23 July 2004 4.66 1.98 6.00 30 July 2004 4.72 1.99 6.10 6 August 2004 4.68 1.99 5.99 13 August 2004 4.59 1.98 5.80 20 August 2004 4.47 1.90 5.48 27 August 2004 4.35 1.85 5.24 3 September 2004 4.35 1.84 5.17 10 September 2004 4.27 ND ND 17 September 2004 4.23 1.83 4.91 24 September 2004 4.17 1.81 4.66 1 October 2004 4.23 1.90 4.75 8 October 2004 4.03 1.81 4.48 15 October 2004 4.06 ND ND 22 October 2004 4.19 1.91 4.83 29 October 2004 4.19 1.87 4.90 5 November 2004 3.98 1.78 4.55 12 November 2004 3.92 ND ND 19 November 2004 3.81 1.70 4.34 26 November 2004 3.78 ND ND 3 December 2004 3.75 1.71 4.12 10 December 2004 3.75 1.70 4.13 17 December 2004 3.68 1.68 4.05 24 December 2004 ND ND ND 31 December 2004 3.51 1.61 3.79 7 January 2005 3.66 1.69 4.07 14 January 2005 3.73 1.71 4.29 21 January 2005 3.79 ND ND 28 January 2005 3.66 1.67 4.18 4 February 2005 3.65 1.62 4.20 11 February 2005 3.57 1.58 4.09 18 February 2005 3.51 1.55 4.01 25 February 2005 3.48 ND ND 4 March 2005 3.41 1.52 3.91 11 March 2005 3.32 1.46 3.86 18 March 2005 3.60 1.66 4.23 25 March 2005 ND ND ND 1 April 2005 3.89 1.84 4.66 8 April 2005 3.83 1.86 4.56 15 April 2005 3.87 1.86 4.52 22 April 2005 3.94 1.89 4.59 29 April 2005 3.92 1.86 4.52 6 May 2005 3.83 1.82 4.36 13 May 2005 3.82 1.84 4.40 20 May 2005 3.89 1.87 4.46 27 May 2005 3.78 1.74 4.29 3 June 2005 ND ND ND 10 June 2005 3.77 1.75 4.39 17 June 2005 3.15 1.70 4.16 24 June 2005 3.16 1.72 4.17 1 July 2005 3.11 1.71 4.17 8 July 2005 3.01 ND ND 15 July 2005 2.91 1.58 4.03 22 July 2005 2.91 1.57 4.07 29 July 2005 2.92 1.55 4.14 5 August 2005 2.82 1.50 3.90 12 August 2005 2.79 1.49 3.89 19 August 2005 2.88 1.50 4.05 26 August 2005 2.94 1.50 4.15 2 September 2005 2.91 1.49 4.12 9 September 2005 2.79 ND ND 16 September 2005 2.66 1.35 3.79 23 September 2005 2.59 1.37 3.64 30 September 2005 2.50 1.39 3.52 7 October 2005 2.56 1.43 3.63 14 October 2005 2.69 ND ND 21 October 2005 2.71 1.48 3.76 28 October 2005 2.61 1.37 3.67 4 November 2005 2.51 1.31 3.55 11 November 2005 2.51 ND ND 18 November 2005 2.47 1.19 3.52 25 November 2005 2.40 ND ND 2 December 2005 2.43 1.17 3.37 9 December 2005 2.43 1.25 3.19 16 December 2005 2.43 1.26 3.14 23 December 2005 2.44 1.25 3.09 30 December 2005 2.43 ND ND 6 January 2006 2.35 ND ND 13 January 2006 2.30 1.25 2.85 20 January 2006 2.32 ND ND 27 January 2006 2.18 1.15 2.69 3 February 2006 2.13 1.14 2.63 10 February 2006 2.07 1.15 2.53 17 February 2006 1.97 1.14 2.30 24 February 2006 1.96 ND ND 3 March 2006 1.87 1.04 2.17 10 March 2006 1.97 1.23 2.32 17 March 2006 1.96 1.22 2.27 24 March 2006 1.98 1.27 2.30 31 March 2006 1.97 1.30 2.35 7 April 2006 1.95 1.33 2.39 14 April 2006 ND ND ND 21 April 2006 1.88 1.30 2.31 28 April 2006 1.81 1.23 2.25 5 May 2006 1.75 1.17 2.15 12 May 2006 1.79 1.21 2.22 19 May 2006 2.01 1.35 2.55 26 May 2006 2.17 1.47 2.77 2 June 2006 2.14 ND ND 9 June 2006 2.18 1.47 2.66 16 June 2006 2.23 1.55 2.63 23 June 2006 2.22 1.53 2.57 30 June 2006 2.27 1.44 2.58 7 July 2006 2.13 ND 2.46 14 July 2006 2.13 1.20 2.49 21 July 2006 2.09 1.19 2.40 28 July 2006 1.97 1.17 2.26 4 August 2006 1.95 1.20 2.22 11 August 2006 1.85 1.14 2.11 18 August 2006 1.84 1.07 2.10 25 August 2006 1.92 1.09 2.23 1 September 2006 1.93 1.08 2.23 8 September 2006 1.90 1.09 2.19 15 September 2006 1.94 1.09 2.23 22 September 2006 2.02 1.15 2.33 29 September 2006 2.11 1.20 2.40 6 October 2006 2.06 1.19 2.30 13 October 2006 1.93 1.11 2.15 20 October 2006 1.85 1.09 2.11 27 October 2006 1.84 1.08 2.12 3 November 2006 1.90 1.11 2.19 10 November 2006 1.87 1.10 2.16 17 November 2006 1.89 1.12 2.17 24 November 2006 1.93 1.15 2.20 1 December 2006 2.00 1.20 2.25 8 December 2006 1.92 1.10 2.17 15 December 2006 1.80 1.04 2.06 22 December 2006 1.74 1.02 2.00 29 December 2006 1.71 1.01 1.96 5 January 2007 1.72 1.02 1.95 12 January 2007 1.74 1.02 1.96 19 January 2007 1.69 1.02 1.89 26 January 2007 1.68 0.97 1.86 2 February 2007 1.68 1.03 1.86 9 February 2007 1.68 1.00 1.83 16 February 2007 1.67 1.01 1.80 23 February 2007 1.67 1.02 1.78 2 March 2007 1.84 1.15 1.94 9 March 2007 1.87 1.16 1.97 16 March 2007 1.83 1.09 1.93 23 March 2007 1.74 1.01 1.79 30 March 2007 1.69 0.99 1.71 6 April 2007 1.61 0.92 1.62 13 April 2007 1.58 0.90 1.56 20 April 2007 1.60 0.90 1.52 27 April 2007 1.58 0.87 1.48 4 May 2007 1.63 0.85 1.53 11 May 2007 1.63 0.81 1.54 18 May 2007 1.57 0.78 1.46 25 May 2007 1.52 0.77 1.42 1 June 2007 1.52 0.74 1.42 8 June 2007 1.54 0.77 1.44 15 June 2007 1.55 0.81 1.44 22 June 2007 1.53 0.81 1.43 29 June 2007 1.69 0.90 1.56 6 July 2007 1.67 0.87 1.51 13 July 2007 1.67 0.87 1.53 20 July 2007 1.74 0.95 1.60 27 July 2007 2.04 1.18 1.93 3 August 2007 2.19 1.25 2.04 10 August 2007 2.04 1.13 1.86 17 August 2007 2.23 1.26 2.03 24 August 2007 2.33 1.30 2.07 31 August 2007 2.30 1.18 2.02 7 September 2007 2.30 1.13 2.02 14 September 2007 2.33 1.18 2.07 21 September 2007 2.04 1.04 1.81 28 September 2007 1.98 1.08 1.72 5 October 2007 1.99 1.09 1.69 12 October 2007 1.85 1.00 1.60 19 October 2007 1.90 1.05 1.66 26 October 2007 2.03 1.14 1.76 2 November 2007 1.95 1.01 1.75 9 November 2007 2.12 1.20 1.92 16 November 2007 2.26 1.33 2.04 23 November 2007 2.53 1.50 2.28 30 November 2007 2.58 1.55 2.35 7 December 2007 2.43 1.50 2.22 14 December 2007 2.29 1.37 2.08 21 December 2007 2.35 1.45 2.17 28 December 2007 2.26 1.35 2.07 4 January 2008 ND ND ND 11 January 2008 2.55 1.60 2.30 18 January 2008 2.66 1.68 2.42 25 January 2008 2.81 1.78 2.62 1 February 2008 2.73 1.80 2.56 8 February 2008 2.77 1.78 2.62 15 February 2008 2.78 1.75 2.61 22 February 2008 ND ND ND 29 February 2008 2.72 1.58 2.48 7 March 2008 2.87 1.67 2.61 14 March 2008 2.99 1.75 2.77 21 March 2008 3.13 1.80 2.91 28 March 2008 2.98 1.61 2.76 4 April 2008 2.94 1.57 2.69 11 April 2008 2.85 1.46 2.56 18 April 2008 2.71 1.39 2.36 25 April 2008 2.67 1.40 2.28 2 May 2008 2.60 1.35 2.14 9 May 2008 2.55 1.26 2.05 16 May 2008 2.58 1.26 2.08 23 May 2008 2.57 1.29 2.08 30 May 2008 2.50 1.34 1.99 6 June 2008 2.47 1.32 1.81 13 June 2008 2.45 1.32 1.88 20 June 2008 2.49 1.30 1.90 27 June 2008 2.76 1.51 2.12 4 July 2008 2.99 1.75 2.33 * Last weekly observations fall on July 4, 2008. Return to table Figure: EMBI+ Spreads* Daily Percent Date Overall Mexico Brazil 1 April 2008 2.93 1.54 2.70 2 April 2008 2.90 1.55 2.66 3 April 2008 2.87 1.53 2.62 4 April 2008 2.94 1.58 2.67 7 April 2008 2.85 1.49 2.60 8 April 2008 2.80 1.43 2.54 9 April 2008 2.89 1.50 2.61 10 April 2008 2.82 1.42 2.50 11 April 2008 2.87 1.47 2.56 14 April 2008 2.83 1.44 2.50 15 April 2008 2.74 1.39 2.40 16 April 2008 2.65 1.37 2.29 17 April 2008 2.64 1.35 2.28 18 April 2008 2.69 1.42 2.35 21 April 2008 2.70 1.43 2.32 22 April 2008 2.71 1.44 2.31 23 April 2008 2.70 1.43 2.31 24 April 2008 2.62 1.36 2.23 25 April 2008 2.62 1.34 2.25 28 April 2008 2.65 1.36 2.27 29 April 2008 2.64 1.38 2.25 30 April 2008 2.67 1.43 2.17 1 May 2008 2.57 1.34 2.02 2 May 2008 2.49 1.26 1.98 5 May 2008 2.48 1.22 1.96 6 May 2008 2.44 1.18 1.93 7 May 2008 2.53 1.24 2.04 8 May 2008 2.65 1.35 2.15 9 May 2008 2.66 1.32 2.16 12 May 2008 2.64 1.30 2.13 13 May 2008 2.54 1.19 2.06 14 May 2008 2.57 1.25 2.08 15 May 2008 2.62 1.33 2.10 16 May 2008 2.54 1.23 2.02 19 May 2008 2.55 1.27 2.06 20 May 2008 2.60 1.32 2.09 21 May 2008 2.57 1.30 2.08 22 May 2008 2.51 1.25 2.03 23 May 2008 2.61 1.33 2.12 26 May 2008 2.60 1.35 2.11 27 May 2008 2.53 1.28 2.06 28 May 2008 2.50 1.36 2.05 29 May 2008 2.45 1.36 1.93 30 May 2008 2.41 1.33 1.78 2 June 2008 2.46 1.37 1.78 3 June 2008 2.51 1.33 1.82 4 June 2008 2.43 1.25 1.75 5 June 2008 2.42 1.28 1.78 6 June 2008 2.54 1.35 1.91 9 June 2008 2.50 1.38 1.92 10 June 2008 2.44 1.29 1.86 11 June 2008 2.49 1.34 1.93 12 June 2008 2.43 1.30 1.86 13 June 2008 2.41 1.27 1.85 16 June 2008 2.42 1.27 1.85 17 June 2008 2.47 1.31 1.87 18 June 2008 2.51 1.31 1.92 19 June 2008 2.50 1.29 1.90 20 June 2008 2.57 1.33 1.94 23 June 2008 2.59 1.36 1.98 24 June 2008 2.69 1.44 2.06 25 June 2008 2.72 1.46 2.10 26 June 2008 2.87 1.60 2.19 27 June 2008 2.95 1.67 2.29 30 June 2008 2.95 1.69 2.29 1 July 2008 2.98 1.73 2.31 2 July 2008 3.02 1.79 2.36 3 July 2008 2.99 1.75 2.34 4 July 2008 3.00 1.78 2.33 7 July 2008 3.04 1.86 2.39 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. * Last daily observations fall on July 7, 2008. Return to table Figure: EMBI Global Spreads* Weekly Percent Period China Malaysia Indonesia** 9 January 2004 0.57 0.98 ND 16 January 2004 0.60 1.05 ND 23 January 2004 ND ND ND 30 January 2004 0.65 1.11 ND 6 February 2004 0.67 1.18 ND 13 February 2004 0.63 1.18 ND 20 February 2004 ND ND ND 27 February 2004 0.66 1.18 ND 5 March 2004 0.66 1.18 ND 12 March 2004 0.68 1.21 ND 19 March 2004 0.71 1.23 ND 26 March 2004 0.69 1.20 ND 2 April 2004 0.65 1.14 ND 9 April 2004 ND ND ND 16 April 2004 0.60 1.11 ND 23 April 2004 0.63 1.14 ND 30 April 2004 0.68 1.22 ND 7 May 2004 0.77 1.38 ND 14 May 2004 0.79 1.44 ND 21 May 2004 0.75 1.37 ND 28 May 2004 0.72 1.32 ND 4 June 2004 ND ND 4.26 11 June 2004 0.72 1.26 4.13 18 June 2004 0.72 1.27 4.10 25 June 2004 0.71 1.29 3.89 2 July 2004 0.69 1.29 3.61 9 July 2004 ND ND ND 16 July 2004 0.70 1.26 3.44 23 July 2004 0.69 1.25 3.40 30 July 2004 0.68 1.23 3.31 6 August 2004 0.70 1.21 3.39 13 August 2004 0.70 1.21 3.42 20 August 2004 0.69 1.21 3.30 27 August 2004 0.63 1.12 3.23 3 September 2004 0.71 1.12 3.19 10 September 2004 ND ND ND 17 September 2004 0.71 1.05 3.22 24 September 2004 0.69 1.05 3.11 1 October 2004 0.74 1.06 3.01 8 October 2004 0.74 1.01 2.87 15 October 2004 ND ND ND 22 October 2004 0.72 1.01 3.05 29 October 2004 0.69 0.99 3.05 5 November 2004 0.64 0.93 2.96 12 November 2004 ND ND ND 19 November 2004 0.57 0.81 2.85 26 November 2004 ND ND ND 3 December 2004 0.57 0.84 2.68 10 December 2004 0.57 0.84 2.86 17 December 2004 0.60 0.84 2.75 24 December 2004 ND ND ND 31 December 2004 0.60 0.79 2.43 7 January 2005 0.58 0.78 2.39 14 January 2005 0.59 0.80 2.50 21 January 2005 ND ND ND 28 January 2005 0.56 0.80 2.37 4 February 2005 0.55 0.78 2.26 11 February 2005 0.53 0.79 2.32 18 February 2005 0.53 0.79 2.16 25 February 2005 ND ND ND 4 March 2005 0.51 0.79 1.97 11 March 2005 0.49 0.77 1.84 18 March 2005 0.47 0.83 1.99 25 March 2005 ND ND ND 1 April 2005 0.53 0.96 2.24 8 April 2005 0.54 0.94 2.32 15 April 2005 0.54 0.93 2.76 22 April 2005 0.55 0.93 3.11 29 April 2005 0.59 0.93 3.07 6 May 2005 0.59 0.93 3.02 13 May 2005 0.58 0.87 2.98 20 May 2005 0.58 0.92 3.17 27 May 2005 0.58 0.90 2.87 3 June 2005 ND ND ND 10 June 2005 0.55 0.87 2.97 17 June 2005 0.56 0.88 2.86 24 June 2005 0.55 0.88 2.95 1 July 2005 0.56 0.88 2.97 8 July 2005 ND ND ND 15 July 2005 0.54 0.82 2.73 22 July 2005 0.54 0.79 2.67 29 July 2005 0.56 0.78 2.69 5 August 2005 0.56 0.78 2.59 12 August 2005 0.57 0.79 2.60 19 August 2005 0.59 0.80 2.84 26 August 2005 0.59 0.81 3.05 2 September 2005 0.64 0.84 3.26 9 September 2005 ND ND ND 16 September 2005 0.63 0.82 2.84 23 September 2005 0.63 0.82 2.83 30 September 2005 0.61 0.81 2.78 7 October 2005 0.59 0.81 2.85 14 October 2005 ND ND ND 21 October 2005 0.58 0.82 2.84 28 October 2005 0.56 0.82 2.76 4 November 2005 0.59 0.81 3.02 11 November 2005 ND ND ND 18 November 2005 0.71 0.82 2.85 25 November 2005 ND ND ND 2 December 2005 0.68 0.82 2.63 9 December 2005 0.68 0.83 2.61 16 December 2005 0.68 0.83 2.58 23 December 2005 0.68 0.82 2.60 30 December 2005 ND ND ND 6 January 2006 ND ND ND 13 January 2006 0.68 0.82 2.59 20 January 2006 ND ND ND 27 January 2006 0.67 0.82 2.53 3 February 2006 0.67 0.81 2.40 10 February 2006 0.67 0.79 2.35 17 February 2006 0.67 0.79 2.32 24 February 2006 ND ND ND 3 March 2006 0.64 0.75 2.27 10 March 2006 0.64 0.78 2.29 17 March 2006 0.64 0.81 2.30 24 March 2006 0.66 0.81 2.22 31 March 2006 0.67 0.85 2.18 7 April 2006 0.67 0.87 2.14 14 April 2006 ND ND ND 21 April 2006 0.68 0.88 2.05 28 April 2006 0.67 0.88 1.97 5 May 2006 0.66 0.88 1.95 12 May 2006 0.63 0.86 1.83 19 May 2006 0.62 0.87 2.01 26 May 2006 0.62 0.88 2.18 2 June 2006 ND ND ND 9 June 2006 0.61 0.89 2.29 16 June 2006 0.63 0.91 2.31 23 June 2006 0.65 0.92 2.22 30 June 2006 0.65 0.97 2.27 7 July 2006 0.65 0.95 2.18 14 July 2006 0.65 0.95 2.22 21 July 2006 0.66 0.93 2.24 28 July 2006 0.66 0.90 2.07 4 August 2006 0.64 0.88 2.03 11 August 2006 0.66 0.88 1.99 18 August 2006 0.66 0.88 2.02 25 August 2006 0.65 0.88 2.10 1 September 2006 0.65 0.88 2.08 8 September 2006 0.67 0.87 1.95 15 September 2006 0.67 0.86 1.95 22 September 2006 0.67 0.86 2.04 29 September 2006 0.67 0.87 2.09 6 October 2006 0.66 0.88 1.98 13 October 2006 0.65 0.85 1.86 20 October 2006 0.65 0.83 1.80 27 October 2006 0.62 0.81 1.84 3 November 2006 0.62 0.79 1.90 10 November 2006 ND ND 1.79 17 November 2006 ND ND ND 24 November 2006 0.58 0.69 1.90 1 December 2006 0.58 0.70 1.97 8 December 2006 0.58 0.69 1.86 15 December 2006 ND 0.65 ND 22 December 2006 0.51 0.65 1.67 29 December 2006 0.52 0.67 1.58 5 January 2007 0.51 0.67 1.55 12 January 2007 0.51 0.68 1.56 19 January 2007 0.51 0.69 1.52 26 January 2007 0.51 0.69 1.48 2 February 2007 0.50 0.70 1.51 9 February 2007 0.50 0.68 1.55 16 February 2007 0.50 0.70 1.58 23 February 2007 0.50 0.68 1.62 2 March 2007 0.53 0.71 1.84 9 March 2007 0.55 0.77 1.93 16 March 2007 0.55 0.72 1.89 23 March 2007 0.56 0.74 1.82 30 March 2007 0.56 0.70 1.74 6 April 2007 0.54 0.70 1.64 13 April 2007 0.54 0.70 1.59 20 April 2007 0.54 0.70 1.65 27 April 2007 ND ND ND 4 May 2007 0.53 0.69 1.67 11 May 2007 0.54 0.68 1.64 18 May 2007 0.53 0.67 1.54 25 May 2007 0.53 0.69 1.46 1 June 2007 0.52 0.69 1.42 8 June 2007 0.52 0.69 1.39 15 June 2007 0.54 0.72 1.39 22 June 2007 0.55 0.71 1.37 29 June 2007 0.56 0.75 1.57 6 July 2007 0.55 0.77 1.62 13 July 2007 0.57 0.80 1.64 20 July 2007 0.58 0.81 1.73 27 July 2007 0.62 0.86 2.03 3 August 2007 0.67 0.95 2.40 10 August 2007 0.76 1.02 2.22 17 August 2007 0.88 1.07 2.38 24 August 2007 0.96 1.12 2.58 31 August 2007 0.94 1.09 2.60 7 September 2007 0.93 1.10 2.53 14 September 2007 0.93 1.13 2.55 21 September 2007 0.93 1.13 2.16 28 September 2007 0.95 1.12 2.11 5 October 2007 0.94 1.11 2.14 12 October 2007 0.86 0.98 1.98 19 October 2007 0.94 0.97 2.02 26 October 2007 0.93 1.07 2.15 2 November 2007 0.91 1.06 2.14 9 November 2007 0.94 1.09 2.34 16 November 2007 0.98 1.12 2.52 23 November 2007 ND ND ND 30 November 2007 1.05 1.18 2.94 7 December 2007 1.10 1.17 2.78 14 December 2007 1.18 1.11 2.66 21 December 2007 1.17 1.17 2.70 28 December 2007 1.15 1.14 2.62 4 January 2008 ND ND ND 11 January 2008 1.29 1.28 3.21 18 January 2008 1.32 1.20 3.31 25 January 2008 1.40 1.28 3.36 1 February 2008 1.31 1.23 3.21 8 February 2008 1.37 1.25 3.21 15 February 2008 ND ND 3.16 22 February 2008 ND ND ND 29 February 2008 1.46 1.38 3.07 7 March 2008 1.51 1.37 3.12 14 March 2008 1.47 1.41 3.20 21 March 2008 1.51 1.45 3.33 28 March 2008 1.57 1.47 3.19 4 April 2008 1.47 1.38 3.23 11 April 2008 1.61 1.38 3.29 18 April 2008 1.56 1.29 3.14 25 April 2008 1.53 1.29 3.18 2 May 2008 1.54 1.37 3.15 9 May 2008 1.36 1.29 3.22 16 May 2008 1.18 1.22 3.23 23 May 2008 1.23 1.26 3.22 30 May 2008 1.19 1.23 3.18 6 June 2008 1.29 1.37 3.31 13 June 2008 1.31 1.40 3.26 20 June 2008 1.33 1.42 3.33 27 June 2008 1.36 1.44 3.53 4 July 2008 1.37 1.50 3.88 * Last observations fall on July 4, 2008. Return to table ** Begins May 2004. Return to table Figure: EMBI Global Spreads* Daily Percent Date China Malaysia Indonesia 1 April 2008 1.35 1.25 3.19 2 April 2008 1.44 1.33 3.15 3 April 2008 1.43 1.40 3.22 4 April 2008 1.55 1.43 3.31 7 April 2008 1.60 1.41 3.28 8 April 2008 1.60 1.37 3.23 9 April 2008 1.62 1.35 3.34 10 April 2008 1.55 1.36 3.30 11 April 2008 1.69 1.41 3.31 14 April 2008 1.63 1.36 3.27 15 April 2008 1.51 1.31 3.20 16 April 2008 1.63 1.27 3.08 17 April 2008 1.55 1.19 3.06 18 April 2008 1.50 1.31 3.09 21 April 2008 1.59 1.34 3.11 22 April 2008 1.58 1.33 3.20 23 April 2008 1.58 1.33 3.27 24 April 2008 1.40 1.15 3.19 25 April 2008 1.50 1.31 3.12 28 April 2008 1.63 1.43 3.14 29 April 2008 1.58 1.39 3.14 30 April 2008 1.65 1.48 3.23 1 May 2008 1.53 1.39 3.16 2 May 2008 1.31 1.14 3.09 5 May 2008 1.43 1.25 3.09 6 May 2008 1.37 1.24 3.12 7 May 2008 1.45 1.32 3.21 8 May 2008 1.29 1.34 3.34 9 May 2008 1.27 1.32 3.33 12 May 2008 1.22 1.25 3.33 13 May 2008 1.05 1.09 3.18 14 May 2008 1.20 1.21 3.19 15 May 2008 1.23 1.29 3.26 16 May 2008 1.21 1.27 3.20 19 May 2008 1.24 1.27 3.20 20 May 2008 1.32 1.35 3.27 21 May 2008 1.18 1.22 3.21 22 May 2008 1.10 1.14 3.16 23 May 2008 1.32 1.34 3.24 26 May 2008 1.23 1.27 3.24 27 May 2008 1.14 1.19 3.18 28 May 2008 1.13 1.18 3.13 29 May 2008 1.16 1.23 3.16 30 May 2008 1.27 1.28 3.18 2 June 2008 1.39 1.42 3.26 3 June 2008 1.29 1.36 3.37 4 June 2008 1.22 1.29 3.30 5 June 2008 1.26 1.36 3.25 6 June 2008 1.30 1.41 3.37 9 June 2008 1.47 1.51 3.35 10 June 2008 1.29 1.35 3.29 11 June 2008 1.31 1.40 3.26 12 June 2008 1.26 1.37 3.17 13 June 2008 1.24 1.35 3.21 16 June 2008 1.26 1.36 3.22 17 June 2008 1.37 1.45 3.30 18 June 2008 1.37 1.47 3.39 19 June 2008 1.31 1.40 3.34 20 June 2008 1.36 1.44 3.39 23 June 2008 1.29 1.40 3.35 24 June 2008 1.38 1.49 3.43 25 June 2008 1.35 1.41 3.47 26 June 2008 1.36 1.43 3.64 27 June 2008 1.41 1.48 3.74 30 June 2008 1.34 1.41 3.84 1 July 2008 1.35 1.51 3.85 2 July 2008 1.39 1.54 3.91 3 July 2008 1.40 1.54 3.88 4 July 2008 1.39 1.52 3.94 7 July 2008 1.48 1.61 4.00 As shown in the figure, a vertical line marks the June 2008 Greenbook. * Last daily observations fall on July 7, 2008. Return to table Advanced Foreign Economies Figure: Average Real GDP* Quarterly Annualized percent change, s.a. Period Average Real GDP 1998:Q1 2.42 1998:Q2 1.07 1998:Q3 3.51 1998:Q4 3.76 1999:Q1 3.50 1999:Q2 3.49 1999:Q3 4.53 1999:Q4 5.37 2000:Q1 5.36 2000:Q2 3.68 2000:Q3 3.13 2000:Q4 1.95 2001:Q1 2.40 2001:Q2 0.07 2001:Q3 -0.45 2001:Q4 1.63 2002:Q1 2.98 2002:Q2 2.42 2002:Q3 2.71 2002:Q4 1.70 2003:Q1 0.92 2003:Q2 0.35 2003:Q3 2.06 2003:Q4 3.81 2004:Q1 2.88 2004:Q2 3.00 2004:Q3 2.74 2004:Q4 1.84 2005:Q1 1.25 2005:Q2 2.98 2005:Q3 3.17 2005:Q4 3.26 2006:Q1 3.56 2006:Q2 2.65 2006:Q3 1.67 2006:Q4 2.95 2007:Q1 3.82 2007:Q2 2.37 2007:Q3 2.34 2007:Q4 1.49 2008:Q1 1.36 * Chain weighted by moving bilateral shares in U.S. merchandise exports. Return to table Figure: Consumer Prices Monthly 12-month percent change, s.a. Period Japan Euro Area Canada United Kingdom January 1998 1.77 1.12 1.22 1.53 February 1998 1.87 1.14 1.11 1.63 March 1998 2.27 1.12 1.00 1.69 April 1998 0.39 1.37 0.89 1.85 May 1998 0.68 1.26 1.00 2.05 June 1998 0.19 1.36 1.00 1.69 July 1998 -0.10 1.27 0.88 1.42 August 1998 -0.39 1.09 0.77 1.34 September 1998 -0.39 0.97 0.55 1.39 October 1998 0.10 0.87 1.10 1.32 November 1998 0.87 0.78 1.22 1.30 December 1998 0.58 0.77 1.10 1.50 January 1999 0.29 0.82 0.77 1.64 February 1999 March 1999 0.00 0.85 0.77 1.46 -0.39 1.00 0.99 1.70 April 1999 0.00 1.05 1.65 1.57 May 1999 -0.39 0.94 1.65 1.31 June 1999 -0.29 0.84 1.54 1.33 July 1999 -0.10 1.06 1.75 1.26 0.29 1.18 2.08 1.20 August 1999 September 1999 -0.10 1.15 2.63 1.15 October 1999 -0.68 1.35 2.18 1.10 November 1999 -1.25 1.47 2.29 1.18 December 1999 -1.16 1.73 2.62 1.11 January 2000 -0.77 1.89 2.40 0.84 February 2000 -0.58 2.00 2.72 0.97 March 2000 -0.29 1.94 3.04 0.65 April 2000 -0.48 1.70 2.05 0.57 May 2000 -0.48 1.69 2.27 0.54 June 2000 -0.39 2.09 2.92 0.76 July 2000 -0.39 2.02 3.02 0.83 August 2000 -0.49 2.05 2.47 0.59 September 2000 -0.68 2.50 2.57 0.97 October 2000 -0.68 2.38 2.88 0.99 November 2000 -0.49 2.51 3.31 1.10 December 2000 -0.19 2.47 3.19 0.82 January 2001 -0.29 2.04 2.98 0.85 February 2001 -0.49 1.95 2.76 0.82 March 2001 -0.78 2.18 2.43 0.90 April 2001 -0.78 2.70 3.60 1.16 May 2001 -0.68 3.08 3.91 1.68 June 2001 -0.88 2.81 3.25 1.72 July 2001 -0.88 2.58 2.62 1.41 August 2001 -0.78 2.38 2.83 1.81 September 2001 -0.88 2.17 2.61 1.37 October 2001 -0.88 2.22 1.87 1.20 November 2001 -1.07 1.97 0.62 0.84 December 2001 -1.27 2.03 0.72 1.08 January 2002 -1.37 2.64 1.34 1.58 February 2002 -1.56 2.57 1.55 1.44 March 2002 -1.27 2.49 1.75 1.50 April 2002 -1.08 2.26 1.74 1.35 May 2002 -0.88 1.98 1.02 0.87 June 2002 -0.69 1.91 1.22 0.66 July 2002 -0.79 2.06 2.24 1.08 August 2002 -0.88 2.13 2.55 0.99 September 2002 -0.69 2.11 2.44 1.07 October 2002 -0.89 2.27 3.26 1.37 November 2002 -0.39 2.28 4.31 1.56 December 2002 -0.30 2.25 3.89 1.65 January 2003 -0.40 2.13 4.38 1.28 February 2003 -0.20 2.42 4.57 1.54 March 2003 -0.10 2.45 4.25 1.51 April 2003 -0.10 2.05 2.81 1.44 May 2003 -0.20 1.78 2.72 1.30 June 2003 -0.40 1.89 2.71 1.15 July 2003 -0.20 1.92 2.19 1.29 August 2003 -0.30 2.06 2.09 1.38 September 2003 -0.20 2.17 2.18 1.49 October 2003 -0.10 1.94 1.58 1.36 November 2003 -0.50 2.14 1.48 1.32 December 2003 -0.40 1.94 2.07 1.25 January 2004 -0.30 1.92 1.27 1.37 February 2004 0.10 1.66 0.78 1.26 March 2004 -0.10 1.68 0.68 1.11 April 2004 -0.40 2.01 1.66 1.16 May 2004 -0.50 2.45 2.55 1.49 June 2004 0.00 2.37 2.44 1.60 July 2004 -0.10 2.30 2.24 1.37 August 2004 -0.20 2.28 1.85 1.27 September 2004 -0.10 2.12 1.75 1.14 October 2004 0.50 2.36 2.24 1.23 November 2004 0.80 2.18 2.52 1.44 December 2004 0.20 2.33 2.12 1.63 January 2005 -0.10 1.97 2.03 1.62 February 2005 -0.40 2.16 2.12 1.66 March 2005 -0.30 2.10 2.41 1.92 April 2005 -0.20 2.07 2.31 1.97 May 2005 -0.20 1.97 1.53 1.92 June 2005 -0.80 2.05 1.72 2.00 July 2005 -0.60 2.16 1.91 2.32 August 2005 -0.60 2.23 2.48 2.39 September 2005 -0.60 2.60 3.34 2.49 October 2005 -1.09 2.49 2.76 2.36 November 2005 -1.28 2.29 2.08 2.14 December 2005 -0.70 2.19 2.08 1.90 January 2006 -0.10 2.43 2.84 1.97 February 2006 -0.10 2.38 2.27 2.03 March 2006 -0.20 2.24 2.17 1.83 April 2006 -0.10 2.45 2.44 2.04 May 2006 0.10 2.47 2.82 2.22 June 2006 0.60 2.44 2.44 2.46 July 2006 0.30 2.42 2.34 2.36 August 2006 0.90 2.26 2.14 2.46 September 2006 0.60 1.76 0.74 2.45 October 2006 0.40 1.57 0.93 2.43 November 2006 0.30 1.85 1.39 2.70 December 2006 0.30 1.90 1.67 2.96 January 2007 0.00 1.87 1.19 2.76 February 2007 -0.20 1.88 2.12 2.80 March 2007 -0.10 1.95 2.40 3.06 April 2007 0.00 1.90 2.11 2.76 May 2007 0.00 1.86 2.10 2.49 June 2007 -0.20 1.86 2.20 2.39 July 2007 0.00 1.77 2.10 1.86 August 2007 -0.20 1.75 1.73 1.77 September 2007 -0.20 2.14 2.47 1.78 October 2007 0.30 2.56 2.47 2.10 November 2007 0.60 3.06 2.47 2.09 December 2007 0.70 3.06 2.37 2.08 January 2008 0.70 3.22 2.18 2.21 February 2008 1.00 3.28 1.81 2.48 March 2008 1.20 3.59 1.35 2.47 April 2008 0.80 3.26 1.71 2.96 May 2008 1.30 3.66 2.15 3.33 June 2008 2.00 3.95 2.96 3.80 Figure: Official or Targeted Interest Rates Percent Period Japan Euro Area Canada United Kingdom 9 January 1998 ND ND 4.25 7.25 16 January 1998 ND ND 4.25 7.25 23 January 1998 ND ND 4.25 7.25 30 January 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 6 February 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 13 February 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 20 February 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 27 February 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 6 March 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 13 March 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 20 March 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 27 March 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 3 April 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 10 April 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 17 April 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 24 April 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 1 May 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 8 May 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 15 May 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 22 May 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 29 May 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.25 5 June 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 12 June 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 19 June 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 26 June 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 3 July 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 10 July 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 17 July 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 24 July 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 31 July 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 7 August 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 14 August 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 21 August 1998 ND ND 4.75 7.50 28 August 1998 ND ND 5.75 7.50 4 September 1998 0.25 ND 5.75 7.50 11 September 1998 0.25 ND 5.75 7.50 18 September 1998 0.25 ND 5.75 7.50 25 September 1998 0.25 ND 5.75 7.50 2 October 1998 0.25 ND 5.50 7.50 9 October 1998 0.25 ND 5.50 7.25 16 October 1998 0.25 ND 5.25 7.25 23 October 1998 0.25 ND 5.25 7.25 30 October 1998 0.25 ND 5.25 7.25 6 November 1998 0.25 ND 5.25 6.75 13 November 1998 0.25 ND 5.25 6.75 20 November 1998 0.25 ND 5.00 6.75 27 November 1998 0.25 ND 5.00 6.75 4 December 1998 0.25 ND 5.00 6.75 11 December 1998 0.25 ND 5.00 6.25 18 December 1998 0.25 ND 5.00 6.25 25 December 1998 0.25 ND 5.00 6.25 1 January 1999 0.25 ND 5.00 6.25 8 January 1999 0.25 3.00 5.00 6.00 15 January 1999 0.25 3.00 5.00 6.00 22 January 1999 0.25 3.00 5.00 6.00 29 January 1999 0.25 3.00 5.00 6.00 5 February 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 12 February 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 19 February 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 26 February 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 5 March 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 12 March 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 19 March 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 26 March 1999 0.15 3.00 5.00 5.50 2 April 1999 0.15 3.00 4.75 5.50 9 April 1999 0.15 2.50 4.75 5.25 16 April 1999 0.15 2.50 4.75 5.25 23 April 1999 0.15 2.50 4.75 5.25 30 April 1999 0.15 2.50 4.75 5.25 7 May 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 14 May 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 21 May 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 28 May 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 4 June 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 11 June 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 18 June 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 25 June 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 2 July 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 9 July 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 16 July 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 23 July 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 30 July 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 6 August 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 13 August 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 20 August 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 27 August 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 3 September 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.00 10 September 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 17 September 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 24 September 1999 0.15 2.50 4.50 5.25 1 October 1999 0.00 2.50 4.50 5.25 8 October 1999 0.00 2.50 4.50 5.25 15 October 1999 0.00 2.50 4.50 5.25 22 October 1999 0.00 2.50 4.50 5.25 29 October 1999 0.00 2.50 4.50 5.25 5 November 1999 0.00 3.00 4.50 5.50 12 November 1999 0.00 3.00 4.50 5.50 19 November 1999 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 26 November 1999 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 3 December 1999 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 10 December 1999 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 17 December 1999 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 24 December 1999 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 31 December 1999 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 7 January 2000 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.50 14 January 2000 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.75 21 January 2000 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.75 28 January 2000 0.00 3.00 4.75 5.75 4 February 2000 0.00 3.25 5.00 5.75 11 February 2000 0.00 3.25 5.00 6.00 18 February 2000 0.00 3.25 5.00 6.00 25 February 2000 0.00 3.25 5.00 6.00 3 March 2000 0.00 3.25 5.00 6.00 10 March 2000 0.00 3.25 5.00 6.00 17 March 2000 0.00 3.50 5.00 6.00 24 March 2000 0.00 3.50 5.25 6.00 31 March 2000 0.00 3.50 5.25 6.00 7 April 2000 0.00 3.50 5.25 6.00 14 April 2000 0.00 3.50 5.25 6.00 21 April 2000 0.00 3.50 5.25 6.00 28 April 2000 0.00 3.75 5.25 6.00 5 May 2000 0.00 3.75 5.25 6.00 12 May 2000 0.00 3.75 5.25 6.00 19 May 2000 0.00 3.75 5.75 6.00 26 May 2000 0.00 3.75 5.75 6.00 2 June 2000 0.00 3.75 5.75 6.00 9 June 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 16 June 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 23 June 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 30 June 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 7 July 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 14 July 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 21 July 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 28 July 2000 0.00 4.25 5.75 6.00 4 August 2000 0.25 4.25 5.75 6.00 11 August 2000 0.25 4.25 5.75 6.00 18 August 2000 0.25 4.25 5.75 6.00 25 August 2000 0.25 4.25 5.75 6.00 1 September 2000 0.25 4.50 5.75 6.00 8 September 2000 0.25 4.50 5.75 6.00 15 September 2000 0.25 4.50 5.75 6.00 22 September 2000 0.25 4.50 5.75 6.00 29 September 2000 0.25 4.50 5.75 6.00 6 October 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 13 October 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 20 October 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 27 October 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 3 November 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 10 November 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 17 November 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 24 November 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 1 December 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 8 December 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 15 December 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 22 December 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 29 December 2000 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 5 January 2001 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 12 January 2001 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 19 January 2001 0.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 26 January 2001 0.25 4.75 5.50 6.00 2 February 2001 0.15 4.75 5.50 6.00 9 February 2001 0.15 4.75 5.50 5.75 16 February 2001 0.15 4.75 5.50 5.75 23 February 2001 0.15 4.75 5.50 5.75 2 March 2001 0.00 4.75 5.50 5.75 9 March 2001 0.00 4.75 5.00 5.75 16 March 2001 0.00 4.75 5.00 5.75 23 March 2001 0.00 4.75 5.00 5.75 30 March 2001 0.00 4.75 5.00 5.75 6 April 2001 0.00 4.75 5.00 5.50 13 April 2001 0.00 4.75 5.00 5.50 20 April 2001 0.00 4.75 4.75 5.50 27 April 2001 0.00 4.75 4.75 5.50 4 May 2001 0.00 4.75 4.75 5.50 11 May 2001 0.00 4.50 4.75 5.25 18 May 2001 0.00 4.50 4.75 5.25 25 May 2001 0.00 4.50 4.75 5.25 1 June 2001 0.00 4.50 4.50 5.25 8 June 2001 0.00 4.50 4.50 5.25 15 June 2001 0.00 4.50 4.50 5.25 22 June 2001 0.00 4.50 4.50 5.25 29 June 2001 0.00 4.50 4.50 5.25 6 July 2001 0.00 4.50 4.50 5.25 13 July 2001 0.00 4.50 4.50 5.25 20 July 2001 0.00 4.50 4.25 5.25 27 July 2001 0.00 4.50 4.25 5.25 3 August 2001 0.00 4.50 4.25 5.00 10 August 2001 0.00 4.50 4.25 5.00 17 August 2001 0.00 4.50 4.25 5.00 24 August 2001 0.00 4.50 4.25 5.00 31 August 2001 0.00 4.25 4.00 5.00 7 September 2001 0.00 4.25 4.00 5.00 14 September 2001 0.00 4.25 4.00 5.00 21 September 2001 0.00 3.75 3.50 4.75 28 September 2001 0.00 3.75 3.50 4.75 5 October 2001 0.00 3.75 3.50 4.50 12 October 2001 0.00 3.75 3.50 4.50 19 October 2001 0.00 3.75 3.50 4.50 26 October 2001 0.00 3.75 2.75 4.50 2 November 2001 0.00 3.75 2.75 4.50 9 November 2001 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 16 November 2001 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 23 November 2001 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 30 November 2001 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 7 December 2001 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 14 December 2001 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 21 December 2001 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 28 December 2001 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 4 January 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 11 January 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 18 January 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 25 January 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 1 February 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 8 February 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 15 February 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 22 February 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 1 March 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 8 March 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 15 March 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 22 March 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 29 March 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 5 April 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 12 April 2002 0.00 3.25 2.00 4.00 19 April 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 26 April 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 3 May 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 10 May 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 17 May 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 24 May 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 31 May 2002 0.00 3.25 2.25 4.00 7 June 2002 0.00 3.25 2.50 4.00 14 June 2002 0.00 3.25 2.50 4.00 21 June 2002 0.00 3.25 2.50 4.00 28 June 2002 0.00 3.25 2.50 4.00 5 July 2002 0.00 3.25 2.50 4.00 12 July 2002 0.00 3.25 2.50 4.00 19 July 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 26 July 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 2 August 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 9 August 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 16 August 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 23 August 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 30 August 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 6 September 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 13 September 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 20 September 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 27 September 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 4 October 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 11 October 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 18 October 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 25 October 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 1 November 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 8 November 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 15 November 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 22 November 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 29 November 2002 0.00 3.25 2.75 4.00 6 December 2002 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 13 December 2002 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 20 December 2002 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 27 December 2002 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 3 January 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 10 January 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 17 January 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 24 January 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 31 January 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 4.00 7 February 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 3.75 14 February 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 3.75 21 February 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 3.75 28 February 2003 0.00 2.75 2.75 3.75 7 March 2003 0.00 2.50 3.00 3.75 14 March 2003 0.00 2.50 3.00 3.75 21 March 2003 0.00 2.50 3.00 3.75 28 March 2003 0.00 2.50 3.00 3.75 4 April 2003 0.00 2.50 3.00 3.75 11 April 2003 0.00 2.50 3.00 3.75 18 April 2003 0.00 2.50 3.25 3.75 25 April 2003 0.00 2.50 3.25 3.75 2 May 2003 0.00 2.50 3.25 3.75 9 May 2003 0.00 2.50 3.25 3.75 16 May 2003 0.00 2.50 3.25 3.75 23 May 2003 0.00 2.50 3.25 3.75 30 May 2003 0.00 2.50 3.25 3.75 6 June 2003 0.00 2.00 3.25 3.75 13 June 2003 0.00 2.00 3.25 3.75 20 June 2003 0.00 2.00 3.25 3.75 27 June 2003 0.00 2.00 3.25 3.75 4 July 2003 0.00 2.00 3.25 3.75 11 July 2003 0.00 2.00 3.25 3.50 18 July 2003 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 25 July 2003 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 1 August 2003 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 8 August 2003 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 15 August 2003 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 22 August 2003 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 29 August 2003 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.50 5 September 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 12 September 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 19 September 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 26 September 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 3 October 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 10 October 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 17 October 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 24 October 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 31 October 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.50 7 November 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 14 November 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 21 November 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 28 November 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 5 December 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 12 December 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 19 December 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 26 December 2003 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 2 January 2004 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 9 January 2004 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 16 January 2004 0.00 2.00 2.75 3.75 23 January 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 3.75 30 January 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 3.75 6 February 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.00 13 February 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.00 20 February 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.00 27 February 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.00 5 March 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.00 12 March 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.00 19 March 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.00 26 March 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.00 2 April 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.00 9 April 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.00 16 April 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 23 April 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 30 April 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 7 May 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.25 14 May 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.25 21 May 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.25 28 May 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.25 4 June 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.25 11 June 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 18 June 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 25 June 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 2 July 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 9 July 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 16 July 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 23 July 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 30 July 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.50 6 August 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.75 13 August 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.75 20 August 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.75 27 August 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.75 3 September 2004 0.00 2.00 2.00 4.75 10 September 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.75 17 September 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.75 24 September 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.75 1 October 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.75 8 October 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.75 15 October 2004 0.00 2.00 2.25 4.75 22 October 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 29 October 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 5 November 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 12 November 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 19 November 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 26 November 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 3 December 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 10 December 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 17 December 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 24 December 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 31 December 2004 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 7 January 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 14 January 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 21 January 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 28 January 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 4 February 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 11 February 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 18 February 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 25 February 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 4 March 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 11 March 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 18 March 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 25 March 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 1 April 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 8 April 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 15 April 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 22 April 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 29 April 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 6 May 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 13 May 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 20 May 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 27 May 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 3 June 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 10 June 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 17 June 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 24 June 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 1 July 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 8 July 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 15 July 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 22 July 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 29 July 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.75 5 August 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.50 12 August 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.50 19 August 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.50 26 August 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.50 2 September 2005 0.00 2.00 2.50 4.50 9 September 2005 0.00 2.00 2.75 4.50 16 September 2005 0.00 2.00 2.75 4.50 23 September 2005 0.00 2.00 2.75 4.50 30 September 2005 0.00 2.00 2.75 4.50 7 October 2005 0.00 2.00 2.75 4.50 14 October 2005 0.00 2.00 2.75 4.50 21 October 2005 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 28 October 2005 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 4 November 2005 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 11 November 2005 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 18 November 2005 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 25 November 2005 0.00 2.00 3.00 4.50 2 December 2005 0.00 2.25 3.00 4.50 9 December 2005 0.00 2.25 3.25 4.50 16 December 2005 0.00 2.25 3.25 4.50 23 December 2005 0.00 2.25 3.25 4.50 30 December 2005 0.00 2.25 3.25 4.50 6 January 2006 0.00 2.25 3.25 4.50 13 January 2006 0.00 2.25 3.25 4.50 20 January 2006 0.00 2.25 3.25 4.50 27 January 2006 0.00 2.25 3.50 4.50 3 February 2006 0.00 2.25 3.50 4.50 10 February 2006 0.00 2.25 3.50 4.50 17 February 2006 0.00 2.25 3.50 4.50 24 February 2006 0.00 2.25 3.50 4.50 3 March 2006 0.00 2.50 3.50 4.50 10 March 2006 0.00 2.50 3.75 4.50 17 March 2006 0.00 2.50 3.75 4.50 24 March 2006 0.00 2.50 3.75 4.50 31 March 2006 0.00 2.50 3.75 4.50 7 April 2006 0.00 2.50 3.75 4.50 14 April 2006 0.00 2.50 3.75 4.50 21 April 2006 0.00 2.50 3.75 4.50 28 April 2006 0.00 2.50 4.00 4.50 5 May 2006 0.00 2.50 4.00 4.50 12 May 2006 0.00 2.50 4.00 4.50 19 May 2006 0.00 2.50 4.00 4.50 26 May 2006 0.00 2.50 4.25 4.50 2 June 2006 0.00 2.50 4.25 4.50 9 June 2006 0.00 2.75 4.25 4.50 16 June 2006 0.00 2.75 4.25 4.50 23 June 2006 0.00 2.75 4.25 4.50 30 June 2006 0.00 2.75 4.25 4.50 7 July 2006 0.00 2.75 4.25 4.50 14 July 2006 0.25 2.75 4.25 4.50 21 July 2006 0.25 2.75 4.25 4.50 28 July 2006 0.25 2.75 4.25 4.50 4 August 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 11 August 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 18 August 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 25 August 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 1 September 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 8 September 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 15 September 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 22 September 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 29 September 2006 0.25 3.00 4.25 4.75 6 October 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 4.75 13 October 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 4.75 20 October 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 4.75 27 October 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 4.75 3 November 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 4.75 10 November 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 5.00 17 November 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 5.00 24 November 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 5.00 1 December 2006 0.25 3.25 4.25 5.00 8 December 2006 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.00 15 December 2006 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.00 22 December 2006 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.00 29 December 2006 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.00 5 January 2007 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.00 12 January 2007 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.25 19 January 2007 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.25 26 January 2007 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.25 2 February 2007 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.25 9 February 2007 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.25 16 February 2007 0.25 3.50 4.25 5.25 23 February 2007 0.50 3.50 4.25 5.25 2 March 2007 0.50 3.50 4.25 5.25 9 March 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 16 March 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 23 March 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 30 March 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 6 April 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 13 April 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 20 April 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 27 April 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 4 May 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.25 11 May 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.50 18 May 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.50 25 May 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.50 1 June 2007 0.50 3.75 4.25 5.50 8 June 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 15 June 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 22 June 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 29 June 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 6 July 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.75 13 July 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 20 July 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 27 July 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 3 August 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 10 August 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 17 August 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 24 August 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 31 August 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 7 September 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 14 September 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 21 September 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 28 September 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 5 October 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 12 October 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 19 October 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 26 October 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 2 November 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 9 November 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 16 November 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 23 November 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 30 November 2007 0.50 4.00 4.50 5.75 7 December 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 14 December 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 21 December 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 28 December 2007 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 4 January 2008 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 11 January 2008 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 18 January 2008 0.50 4.00 4.25 5.50 25 January 2008 0.50 4.00 4.00 5.50 1 February 2008 0.50 4.00 4.00 5.50 8 February 2008 0.50 4.00 4.00 5.25 15 February 2008 0.50 4.00 4.00 5.25 22 February 2008 0.50 4.00 4.00 5.25 29 February 2008 0.50 4.00 4.00 5.25 7 March 2008 0.50 4.00 3.50 5.25 14 March 2008 0.50 4.00 3.50 5.25 21 March 2008 0.50 4.00 3.50 5.25 28 March 2008 0.50 4.00 3.50 5.25 4 April 2008 0.50 4.00 3.50 5.25 11 April 2008 0.50 4.00 3.50 5.00 18 April 2008 0.50 4.00 3.50 5.00 25 April 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 2 May 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 9 May 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 16 May 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 23 May 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 30 May 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 6 June 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 13 June 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 20 June 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 27 June 2008 0.50 4.00 3.00 5.00 4 July 2008 0.50 4.25 3.00 5.00 11 July 2008 0.50 4.25 3.00 5.00 18 July 2008 0.50 4.25 3.00 5.00 25 July 2008 0.50 4.25 3.00 5.00 Japan Figure: Economic Activity 2000 = 100 Period Industrial production Tertiary services October 1998 92.1 98.4 November 1998 91.7 98.2 December 1998 91.5 97.7 January 1999 92.6 98.1 February 1999 92.6 97.8 March 1999 94.2 98.1 April 1999 92.2 98.2 May 1999 93.9 98.1 June 1999 93.1 98.2 July 1999 93.8 98.4 August 1999 94.3 98.4 September 1999 95.1 98.7 October 1999 95.2 98.2 November 1999 96.4 98.9 December 1999 96.2 98.7 January 2000 96.2 98.7 February 2000 95.9 97.1 March 2000 97.5 99.0 April 2000 98.8 99.5 May 2000 98.4 99.6 June 2000 99.9 99.8 July 2000 99.4 99.7 100.8 100.5 98.7 100.2 October 2000 100.3 101.0 November 2000 100.7 100.7 December 2000 101.9 101.4 August 2000 September 2000 January 2001 97.6 101.2 February 2001 98.7 101.8 March 2001 97.0 101.6 April 2001 96.1 101.2 May 2001 94.1 101.0 June 2001 93.0 101.4 July 2001 91.5 101.1 August 2001 90.5 100.8 September 2001 88.6 100.6 October 2001 88.5 100.8 November 2001 87.0 101.1 December 2001 87.9 101.1 January 2002 87.3 100.9 February 2002 88.7 100.8 March 2002 89.4 101.2 April 2002 88.9 101.1 May 2002 92.7 101.4 June 2002 91.7 100.6 July 2002 92.3 101.4 August 2002 92.6 101.9 September 2002 93.3 101.2 October 2002 93.4 101.0 November 2002 93.0 101.3 December 2002 92.9 100.3 January 2003 93.4 101.7 February 2003 93.0 101.6 March 2003 93.6 101.4 April 2003 92.3 101.4 May 2003 93.7 101.8 June 2003 92.9 101.9 July 2003 93.6 100.5 August 2003 92.3 102.0 September 2003 95.1 102.8 October 2003 96.7 103.6 November 2003 96.5 102.4 December 2003 96.4 102.4 January 2004 97.9 104.4 February 2004 97.7 101.2 March 2004 97.2 102.8 April 2004 98.9 104.9 May 2004 98.9 103.8 June 2004 99.2 104.4 July 2004 100.4 104.1 August 2004 99.3 104.3 September 2004 99.5 104.3 October 2004 98.0 104.6 November 2004 98.9 104.9 December 2004 97.6 105.0 January 2005 99.8 106.7 99.7 106.0 March 2005 February 2005 100.0 105.6 April 2005 100.5 106.7 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 99.8 105.8 100.1 106.4 99.3 106.1 99.4 107.3 100.3 106.6 99.8 107.7 November 2005 101.4 108.0 December 2005 101.6 108.0 January 2006 102.0 108.8 February 2006 101.9 108.2 March 2006 102.5 107.3 April 2006 104.5 108.6 May 2006 103.0 109.4 June 2006 104.3 108.5 July 2006 104.7 108.6 August 2006 105.1 109.0 September 2006 105.1 107.7 October 2006 105.9 109.5 November 2006 106.3 109.4 December 2006 106.6 109.2 January 2007 105.4 109.3 February 2007 106.0 110.6 March 2007 106.0 108.7 April 2007 105.6 110.1 May 2007 106.8 110.3 June 2007 106.9 110.5 July 2007 107.0 110.2 August 2007 109.7 110.9 September 2007 107.9 110.1 October 2007 110.0 110.4 November 2007 108.4 110.5 December 2007 109.1 109.9 September 2005 October 2005 January 2008 108.5 110.3 February 2008 110.2 108.5 March 2008 106.5 108.5 April 2008 106.3 110.6 May 2008 109.3 110.4 June 2008 107.1 ND Figure: Real Trade 2005 = 100 Period Real exports Real imports October 1998 69.5 74.3 November 1998 65.6 73.9 December 1998 67.9 72.3 January 1999 70.8 76.3 February 1999 66.1 78.2 March 1999 67.9 74.6 April 1999 68.5 77.9 May 1999 68.7 77.5 June 1999 69.3 79.3 July 1999 70.8 77.0 August 1999 72.1 79.8 September 1999 73.4 78.7 October 1999 71.8 78.4 November 1999 73.7 85.1 December 1999 74.8 82.2 January 2000 75.5 80.2 February 2000 75.4 79.9 March 2000 76.8 85.3 April 2000 79.1 86.5 May 2000 77.8 87.2 June 2000 81.3 87.2 July 2000 79.0 85.8 August 2000 81.0 88.0 September 2000 79.7 88.4 October 2000 81.2 90.8 November 2000 79.7 89.8 December 2000 77.7 91.3 January 2001 74.5 88.6 February 2001 78.3 89.2 March 2001 76.7 89.6 April 2001 75.1 86.0 May 2001 73.4 91.2 June 2001 72.1 84.6 July 2001 72.3 86.3 August 2001 72.2 84.8 September 2001 72.0 83.6 October 2001 71.4 84.6 November 2001 71.0 82.9 December 2001 68.1 81.0 January 2002 72.4 82.0 February 2002 73.4 87.2 March 2002 75.6 82.7 April 2002 75.7 83.0 May 2002 77.8 84.6 June 2002 80.4 84.4 July 2002 79.8 88.5 August 2002 79.6 86.9 September 2002 79.0 86.3 October 2002 79.3 84.7 November 2002 83.1 89.9 December 2002 80.8 90.4 January 2003 80.6 89.8 February 2003 82.3 90.9 March 2003 80.9 89.1 April 2003 81.4 90.5 May 2003 81.3 90.0 June 2003 81.2 90.9 July 2003 82.8 91.3 August 2003 84.4 89.7 September 2003 86.9 92.7 October 2003 88.0 90.5 November 2003 88.4 92.1 December 2003 91.4 93.0 January 2004 92.7 93.7 February 2004 92.1 91.9 March 2004 91.2 95.4 April 2004 95.4 95.2 May 2004 95.9 93.7 June 2004 97.0 98.2 July 2004 96.2 96.5 August 2004 95.0 96.2 September 2004 95.0 96.3 October 2004 96.1 98.6 November 2004 98.0 102.5 December 2004 96.0 96.1 January 2005 96.1 99.1 February 2005 94.4 96.0 March 2005 96.4 98.3 April 2005 97.8 98.1 May 2005 98.8 102.0 June 2005 99.9 100.3 July 2005 99.7 99.7 August 2005 100.3 101.4 September 2005 103.3 101.0 October 2005 103.6 100.0 November 2005 103.7 101.5 December 2005 105.9 102.6 January 2006 106.1 104.1 February 2006 108.3 101.5 March 2006 108.7 103.6 April 2006 107.8 105.8 May 2006 111.8 102.8 June 2006 110.7 101.9 July 2006 112.8 101.7 August 2006 113.4 103.4 September 2006 111.9 105.2 October 2006 113.0 104.4 November 2006 115.1 101.5 December 2006 114.2 104.2 January 2007 118.2 101.5 February 2007 116.2 107.9 March 2007 118.0 101.7 April 2007 116.1 99.5 May 2007 118.5 105.0 June 2007 120.0 104.9 July 2007 121.1 106.3 August 2007 127.4 104.6 September 2007 124.2 103.8 October 2007 125.4 103.4 November 2007 126.9 105.0 December 2007 127.3 104.4 January 2008 133.1 105.4 February 2008 126.6 102.1 March 2008 132.3 108.1 April 2008 125.3 101.9 May 2008 126.4 100.2 June 2008 127.6 106.3 Figure: Labor Market Period Unemployment rate (Percent) Job openings to applications (Ratio) October 1998 4.3 0.48 November 1998 4.5 0.47 December 1998 4.4 0.47 January 1999 4.5 0.48 February 1999 4.6 0.48 March 1999 4.7 0.48 April 1999 4.7 0.47 May 1999 4.7 0.46 June 1999 4.8 0.46 July 1999 4.8 0.47 August 1999 4.7 0.47 September 1999 4.6 0.48 October 1999 4.6 0.49 November 1999 4.6 0.49 December 1999 4.7 0.50 January 2000 4.7 0.51 February 2000 4.9 0.52 March 2000 4.9 0.54 April 2000 4.8 0.56 May 2000 4.6 0.56 June 2000 4.7 0.58 July 2000 4.7 0.60 August 2000 4.6 0.61 September 2000 4.7 0.62 October 2000 4.7 0.64 November 2000 4.7 0.65 December 2000 4.8 0.65 January 2001 4.8 0.65 February 2001 4.7 0.64 March 2001 4.8 0.63 April 2001 4.8 0.62 May 2001 4.9 0.61 June 2001 5.0 0.61 July 2001 5.0 0.60 August 2001 5.1 0.58 September 2001 5.3 0.57 October 2001 5.3 0.54 November 2001 5.4 0.52 December 2001 5.4 0.51 January 2002 5.2 0.50 February 2002 5.3 0.51 March 2002 5.3 0.52 April 2002 5.3 0.52 May 2002 5.4 0.53 June 2002 5.5 0.53 July 2002 5.4 0.54 August 2002 5.5 0.55 September 2002 5.4 0.55 October 2002 5.4 0.56 November 2002 5.2 0.56 December 2002 5.4 0.57 January 2003 5.4 0.58 February 2003 5.2 0.59 March 2003 5.4 0.60 April 2003 5.5 0.61 May 2003 5.4 0.61 June 2003 5.4 0.62 July 2003 5.2 0.63 August 2003 5.1 0.65 September 2003 5.2 0.67 October 2003 5.1 0.70 November 2003 5.1 0.72 December 2003 4.9 0.75 January 2004 4.9 0.76 February 2004 4.9 0.76 March 2004 4.8 0.77 April 2004 4.8 0.78 May 2004 4.7 0.80 June 2004 4.7 0.82 July 2004 4.9 0.83 August 2004 4.8 0.84 September 2004 4.6 0.86 October 2004 4.6 0.89 November 2004 4.5 0.91 December 2004 4.5 0.91 January 2005 4.5 0.91 February 2005 4.6 0.91 March 2005 4.5 0.93 April 2005 4.5 0.94 May 2005 4.5 0.94 June 2005 4.3 0.95 July 2005 4.4 0.96 August 2005 4.3 0.96 September 2005 4.2 0.97 October 2005 4.4 0.98 November 2005 4.5 0.99 December 2005 4.4 1.01 January 2006 4.4 1.03 February 2006 4.1 1.04 March 2006 4.1 1.04 April 2006 4.1 1.05 May 2006 4.1 1.06 June 2006 4.3 1.07 July 2006 4.1 1.08 August 2006 4.1 1.07 September 2006 4.1 1.07 October 2006 4.0 1.07 November 2006 4.0 1.07 December 2006 4.0 1.07 January 2007 4.0 1.07 February 2007 4.0 1.05 March 2007 4.0 1.05 April 2007 3.9 1.05 May 2007 3.8 1.06 June 2007 3.7 1.07 July 2007 3.6 1.06 August 2007 3.8 1.05 September 2007 4.0 1.04 October 2007 3.9 1.02 November 2007 3.8 1.00 December 2007 3.8 0.98 January 2008 3.8 0.98 February 2008 3.9 0.97 March 2008 3.8 0.95 April 2008 4.0 0.93 May 2008 4.0 0.92 June 2008 4.1 Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a. Period CPI Core* October 1998 0.19 -0.39 November 1998 0.78 -0.29 December 1998 0.58 -0.29 January 1999 0.19 -0.10 February 1999 -0.10 -0.10 March 1999 -0.39 -0.10 April 1999 -0.10 -0.10 May 1999 -0.39 0.00 June 1999 -0.29 0.00 July 1999 -0.10 0.00 0.29 0.00 September 1999 -0.19 0.00 August 1999 October 1999 -0.67 -0.10 November 1999 -1.15 -0.19 December 1999 -1.06 -0.10 January 2000 -0.68 -0.29 February 2000 -0.68 -0.10 March 2000 -0.58 -0.29 April 2000 -0.77 -0.29 May 2000 -0.68 -0.19 June 2000 -0.58 -0.29 July 2000 -0.58 -0.29 August 2000 -0.49 0.10 September 2000 -0.97 -0.58 October 2000 -1.16 -0.87 November 2000 -0.88 -0.78 December 2000 -0.49 -0.78 January 2001 -0.39 -0.78 February 2001 -0.29 -0.78 March 2001 -0.68 -0.88 April 2001 -0.78 -0.88 May 2001 -0.78 -1.07 June 2001 -0.88 -0.98 July 2001 -0.78 -0.88 August 2001 -0.78 -0.98 September 2001 -0.78 -0.78 October 2001 -0.78 -0.69 November 2001 -0.98 -0.78 December 2001 -1.18 -0.88 January 2002 -1.37 -0.79 February 2002 -1.57 -0.79 March 2002 -1.18 -0.69 April 2002 -1.08 -0.89 May 2002 -0.88 -0.79 0.91 June 2002 -0.69 -0.79 July 2002 -0.79 -0.79 August 2002 -0.89 -0.89 September 2002 -0.69 -0.89 October 2002 -0.89 -0.89 November 2002 -0.40 -0.79 December 2002 -0.30 -0.69 January 2003 -0.40 -0.80 February 2003 -0.20 -0.70 March 2003 -0.10 -0.60 April 2003 -0.10 -0.40 May 2003 -0.20 -0.40 June 2003 -0.40 -0.40 July 2003 -0.20 -0.20 August 2003 -0.30 -0.10 September 2003 -0.20 -0.10 October 2003 0.00 0.10 November 2003 -0.50 -0.10 December 2003 -0.40 0.00 January 2004 -0.30 -0.10 February 2004 0.00 0.00 March 2004 -0.10 -0.10 April 2004 -0.40 -0.20 May 2004 -0.50 -0.30 June 2004 0.00 -0.10 July 2004 -0.10 -0.20 August 2004 -0.20 -0.20 September 2004 0.00 0.00 October 2004 0.50 -0.10 November 2004 0.80 -0.20 December 2004 0.20 -0.20 January 2005 0.20 0.10 February 2005 -0.10 -0.20 March 2005 0.00 -0.10 April 2005 0.10 0.00 May 2005 0.10 0.10 June 2005 -0.50 -0.20 July 2005 -0.30 -0.20 August 2005 -0.30 -0.20 September 2005 -0.30 -0.20 October 2005 -0.79 -0.10 November 2005 -0.99 -0.10 December 2005 -0.40 -0.20 January 2006 -0.10 -0.10 February 2006 -0.10 0.00 March 2006 -0.20 0.10 April 2006 -0.10 -0.10 May 2006 0.10 0.00 June 2006 0.50 0.20 July 2006 0.30 0.20 August 2006 0.90 0.30 September 2006 0.60 0.20 October 2006 0.40 0.10 November 2006 0.30 0.20 December 2006 0.30 0.10 January 2007 0.00 0.00 February 2007 -0.20 -0.10 March 2007 -0.10 -0.30 April 2007 0.00 -0.10 May 2007 0.00 -0.10 June 2007 -0.20 -0.10 July 2007 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.10 September 2007 -0.20 -0.10 August 2007 October 2007 0.30 0.10 November 2007 0.60 0.40 December 2007 0.70 0.80 January 2008 0.70 0.80 February 2008 1.01 1.01 March 2008 1.20 1.20 April 2008 0.80 0.90 May 2008 1.29 1.50 June 2008 2.00 1.90 * Excludes fresh food. Return to table Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.) 2007 2008 2008 Indicator Q4 Housing starts Machinery orders Q1 Q2 Mar. Apr. May June 18.1 19.6 n.a. -5.4 5.8 -6.8 n.a. 0.6 2.2 n.a. -8.3 5.5 10.4 n.a. 1 Household expenditures 0.6 0.7 -3.3 -2.2 -0.7 -0.9 1.5 New car registrations 4.2 -1.6 -2.4 -5.0 10.0 -11.1 0.3 Business sentiment 2 2.0 -4.0 -7.0 … … … … 2.4 3.5 4.8 3.9 3.9 4.8 5.6 Wholesale prices 3 1. Private sector, excluding ships and electric power. Return to table 2. Tankan survey, diffusion index. Level. Return to table 3. Percent change from year earlier, n.s.a. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Euro Area Figure: Nominal Exports and Imports Billions of U.S. $ Period Exports Imports October 1998 75.78 71.12 November 1998 74.66 68.88 December 1998 74.75 69.00 January 1999 71.50 67.65 February 1999 70.24 66.61 March 1999 71.17 68.78 April 1999 69.37 65.75 May 1999 68.75 66.85 June 1999 70.76 67.00 July 1999 73.29 68.81 August 1999 72.02 69.18 September 1999 73.49 73.46 October 1999 75.87 73.99 November 1999 74.94 74.17 December 1999 75.03 74.97 January 2000 75.35 76.37 February 2000 76.32 77.59 March 2000 76.20 77.35 April 2000 73.99 73.85 May 2000 77.63 79.01 June 2000 76.20 79.18 July 2000 76.83 78.94 August 2000 76.77 79.56 September 2000 75.97 78.05 October 2000 75.12 78.10 November 2000 77.01 79.36 December 2000 81.29 83.58 January 2001 84.58 83.61 February 2001 80.30 79.32 March 2001 80.40 79.43 April 2001 78.76 77.48 May 2001 77.51 75.73 June 2001 76.98 74.65 July 2001 76.45 73.71 August 2001 79.80 75.78 September 2001 78.48 73.26 October 2001 79.95 74.20 November 2001 77.37 71.75 December 2001 77.93 70.05 January 2002 78.19 71.75 February 2002 78.10 71.84 March 2002 79.10 71.39 April 2002 79.46 74.93 May 2002 84.00 75.09 June 2002 86.00 78.07 July 2002 89.65 81.38 August 2002 87.95 78.89 September 2002 87.76 79.67 October 2002 88.76 82.12 November 2002 90.70 82.00 December 2002 89.85 83.10 January 2003 96.40 90.78 February 2003 95.36 89.81 March 2003 93.55 90.22 April 2003 94.70 90.28 May 2003 100.85 94.87 June 2003 97.70 91.93 July 2003 99.17 92.21 August 2003 97.03 87.32 September 2003 100.42 92.54 October 2003 105.62 97.65 November 2003 102.66 96.01 December 2003 112.42 105.04 January 2004 112.48 104.77 February 2004 115.99 107.75 March 2004 117.61 106.23 April 2004 116.47 106.65 May 2004 114.02 103.70 June 2004 117.32 110.85 July 2004 119.12 110.14 August 2004 115.67 110.91 September 2004 116.90 113.61 October 2004 120.78 116.39 November 2004 127.24 123.39 December 2004 129.95 124.25 January 2005 126.67 121.59 February 2005 124.48 120.31 March 2005 129.15 126.48 April 2005 133.07 130.09 May 2005 128.50 124.46 June 2005 125.80 122.31 July 2005 124.80 123.75 August 2005 130.27 132.75 September 2005 131.53 131.47 October 2005 125.72 126.86 November 2005 127.84 130.57 December 2005 131.11 133.69 January 2006 134.40 135.71 February 2006 131.52 134.50 March 2006 136.30 138.51 April 2006 135.96 137.91 May 2006 146.73 150.51 June 2006 144.90 148.44 July 2006 141.88 147.96 August 2006 147.86 152.58 September 2006 152.88 149.85 October 2006 149.91 148.80 November 2006 155.83 152.44 December 2006 162.73 159.00 January 2007 157.89 154.63 February 2007 160.51 159.62 March 2007 163.79 156.24 April 2007 164.10 160.86 May 2007 166.46 161.66 June 2007 169.18 163.21 July 2007 172.10 172.08 August 2007 175.18 171.44 September 2007 177.04 172.72 October 2007 183.28 181.08 November 2007 188.35 186.40 December 2007 181.27 183.23 January 2008 194.88 196.84 February 2008 197.85 194.41 March 2008 199.77 201.54 April 2008 214.00 211.83 May 2008 204.10 206.50 Figure: Economic Sentiment Percent balance Period Consumer confidence Industrial confidence October 1998 -3.2 -6.8 November 1998 -1.2 -7.4 December 1998 -2.2 -8.6 January 1999 -0.6 -9.8 February 1999 -0.7 -11.0 March 1999 -2.3 -11.1 April 1999 -4.9 -10.3 May 1999 -5.8 -10.0 June 1999 -6.4 -8.3 July 1999 -4.4 -7.8 August 1999 -4.6 -6.5 September 1999 -4.0 -4.3 October 1999 -2.4 -3.1 November 1999 -1.6 -0.5 December 1999 -0.6 -0.2 January 2000 1.0 0.5 February 2000 0.4 2.4 March 2000 1.2 4.3 April 2000 2.0 4.2 May 2000 1.8 5.8 June 2000 0.8 5.6 July 2000 1.4 5.0 August 2000 1.8 4.8 September 2000 -1.5 5.3 October 2000 -0.3 4.5 November 2000 0.2 3.8 December 2000 1.6 2.6 January 2001 1.3 1.3 February 2001 0.6 0.0 March 2001 0.8 -2.5 April 2001 0.0 -4.9 May 2001 -2.2 -6.2 June 2001 -3.1 -7.8 July 2001 -5.8 -9.2 August 2001 -8.5 -10.3 September 2001 -8.7 -14.3 October 2001 -10.4 -16.8 November 2001 -12.5 -17.9 December 2001 -10.8 -15.2 January 2002 -10.7 -14.6 February 2002 -9.6 -12.3 March 2002 -9.0 -10.9 April 2002 -9.4 -10.2 May 2002 -8.3 -8.5 June 2002 -8.8 -9.5 July 2002 -10.3 -11.8 August 2002 -11.2 -12.0 -9.5 -9.5 October 2002 -12.2 -8.9 November 2002 -14.0 -9.3 December 2002 -16.5 -10.1 January 2003 -17.7 -10.1 February 2003 -18.9 -9.9 March 2003 -20.9 -11.0 April 2003 -19.2 -11.4 May 2003 -19.8 -11.6 June 2003 -18.7 -12.5 July 2003 -18.6 -13.0 August 2003 -17.3 -10.7 September 2003 -16.9 -8.9 October 2003 -17.0 -8.2 November 2003 -15.6 -6.4 December 2003 -15.8 -8.2 January 2004 -15.2 -6.8 February 2004 -14.2 -7.0 March 2004 -14.1 -7.1 April 2004 -13.9 -4.7 May 2004 -15.4 -4.8 June 2004 -14.4 -4.5 July 2004 -14.6 -3.8 August 2004 -14.0 -3.8 September 2004 -12.9 -3.1 October 2004 -13.4 -2.5 November 2004 -12.9 -3.3 December 2004 -13.1 -3.9 January 2005 -12.8 -4.5 February 2005 -13.4 -6.3 March 2005 -14.0 -7.8 April 2005 -13.5 -9.2 September 2002 May 2005 -14.7 -10.4 June 2005 -15.4 -9.5 July 2005 -15.6 -8.0 August 2005 -14.8 -7.3 September 2005 -14.6 -6.5 October 2005 -13.4 -5.6 November 2005 -13.4 -6.2 December 2005 -11.3 -4.7 January 2006 -11.2 -4.0 February 2006 -10.6 -2.1 March 2006 -11.1 -0.7 April 2006 -10.7 1.5 May 2006 -9.1 1.9 June 2006 -9.5 3.1 July 2006 -8.5 3.7 August 2006 -8.8 2.4 September 2006 -8.1 4.3 October 2006 -7.9 5.1 November 2006 -7.3 5.9 December 2006 -6.4 5.7 January 2007 -6.6 5.3 February 2007 -5.0 5.3 March 2007 -4.6 6.0 April 2007 -4.3 6.5 May 2007 -1.5 5.7 June 2007 -2.1 5.9 July 2007 -2.0 4.8 August 2007 -3.9 4.7 September 2007 -5.7 2.6 October 2007 -6.2 1.7 November 2007 -8.1 2.6 December 2007 -8.7 1.6 January 2008 -11.5 1.1 February 2008 -12.0 0.2 March 2008 -12.1 0.1 April 2008 -12.4 -2.0 May 2008 -14.6 -1.7 June 2008 -16.7 -4.9 July 2008 -19.7 -7.8 Figure: Unemployment Rate Period Percent October 1998 9.8 November 1998 9.8 December 1998 9.7 January 1999 9.5 February 1999 9.5 March 1999 9.4 April 1999 9.3 May 1999 9.3 June 1999 9.2 July 1999 9.1 August 1999 9.0 September 1999 9.0 October 1999 8.8 November 1999 8.7 December 1999 8.6 January 2000 8.5 February 2000 8.5 March 2000 8.4 April 2000 8.3 May 2000 8.2 June 2000 8.2 July 2000 8.1 August 2000 8.1 September 2000 8.1 October 2000 7.9 November 2000 7.9 December 2000 7.8 January 2001 7.8 February 2001 7.8 March 2001 7.8 April 2001 7.8 May 2001 7.8 June 2001 7.8 July 2001 7.8 August 2001 7.8 September 2001 7.8 October 2001 7.9 November 2001 7.9 December 2001 8.0 January 2002 8.0 February 2002 8.0 March 2002 8.0 April 2002 8.1 May 2002 8.2 June 2002 8.2 July 2002 8.3 August 2002 8.3 September 2002 8.4 October 2002 8.4 November 2002 8.5 December 2002 8.5 January 2003 8.6 February 2003 8.7 March 2003 8.7 April 2003 8.7 May 2003 8.7 June 2003 8.7 July 2003 8.7 August 2003 8.7 September 2003 8.7 October 2003 8.7 November 2003 8.7 December 2003 8.7 January 2004 8.8 February 2004 8.8 March 2004 8.8 April 2004 8.8 May 2004 8.8 June 2004 8.8 July 2004 8.9 August 2004 8.9 September 2004 8.9 October 2004 8.8 November 2004 8.9 December 2004 9.0 January 2005 8.9 February 2005 8.9 March 2005 9.0 April 2005 8.9 May 2005 8.9 June 2005 8.9 July 2005 8.9 August 2005 8.8 September 2005 8.8 October 2005 8.8 November 2005 8.8 December 2005 8.7 January 2006 8.7 February 2006 8.7 March 2006 8.6 April 2006 8.5 May 2006 8.4 June 2006 8.3 July 2006 8.2 August 2006 8.1 September 2006 8.1 October 2006 8.0 November 2006 7.9 December 2006 7.8 January 2007 7.7 February 2007 7.6 March 2007 7.6 April 2007 7.5 May 2007 7.5 June 2007 7.4 July 2007 7.4 August 2007 7.4 September 2007 7.3 October 2007 7.3 November 2007 7.3 December 2007 7.2 January 2008 7.2 February 2008 7.2 March 2008 7.2 April 2008 7.2 May 2008 7.2 Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a. Period CPI Core* October 1998 0.88 1.49 November 1998 0.79 1.42 December 1998 0.79 1.35 January 1999 0.79 1.30 February 1999 0.79 1.23 March 1999 0.98 1.24 April 1999 1.07 1.15 May 1999 0.98 1.04 June 1999 0.87 1.01 July 1999 1.07 1.06 August 1999 1.16 0.99 September 1999 1.16 0.91 October 1999 1.37 0.92 November 1999 1.46 1.01 December 1999 1.75 1.07 January 2000 1.85 1.07 February 2000 1.94 0.94 March 2000 1.93 0.88 April 2000 1.74 1.01 May 2000 1.73 0.88 June 2000 2.12 0.95 July 2000 2.01 0.90 August 2000 2.02 0.97 September 2000 2.50 1.03 October 2000 2.39 1.11 November 2000 2.49 1.08 December 2000 2.48 1.51 January 2001 2.01 1.22 February 2001 1.90 1.18 March 2001 2.19 1.53 April 2001 2.74 1.86 May 2001 3.12 2.02 June 2001 2.83 2.08 July 2001 2.55 1.97 August 2001 2.35 1.92 September 2001 2.16 2.15 October 2001 2.25 2.35 November 2001 1.97 2.41 December 2001 2.05 2.40 January 2002 2.61 2.57 February 2002 2.52 2.60 March 2002 2.50 2.66 April 2002 2.30 2.50 May 2002 2.02 2.62 June 2002 1.92 2.55 July 2002 2.02 2.48 August 2002 2.12 2.49 September 2002 2.10 2.44 October 2002 2.30 2.34 November 2002 2.29 2.33 December 2002 2.28 2.25 January 2003 2.10 1.99 February 2003 2.37 2.04 March 2003 2.45 2.02 April 2003 2.08 2.15 May 2003 1.81 2.00 June 2003 1.89 1.97 July 2003 1.90 1.84 August 2003 2.07 1.86 September 2003 2.16 1.96 October 2003 1.97 1.99 November 2003 2.15 1.98 December 2003 1.97 1.90 January 2004 1.88 1.93 February 2004 1.61 2.04 March 2004 1.67 2.09 April 2004 2.04 2.12 May 2004 2.47 2.12 June 2004 2.38 2.15 July 2004 2.29 2.11 August 2004 2.30 2.17 September 2004 2.11 2.04 October 2004 2.37 1.99 November 2004 2.20 1.92 December 2004 2.36 2.07 January 2005 1.93 1.77 February 2005 2.10 1.60 March 2005 2.09 1.58 April 2005 2.08 1.41 May 2005 1.99 1.55 June 2005 2.07 1.41 July 2005 2.17 1.33 August 2005 2.24 1.32 September 2005 2.59 1.45 October 2005 2.50 1.50 November 2005 2.32 1.54 December 2005 2.22 1.41 January 2006 2.39 1.31 February 2006 2.33 1.34 March 2006 2.23 1.45 April 2006 2.46 1.60 May 2006 2.48 1.47 June 2006 2.48 1.56 July 2006 2.43 1.58 August 2006 2.26 1.49 September 2006 1.75 1.53 October 2006 1.56 1.63 November 2006 1.87 1.61 December 2006 1.92 1.63 January 2007 1.84 1.78 February 2007 1.84 1.90 March 2007 1.94 1.87 April 2007 1.91 1.90 May 2007 1.87 1.95 June 2007 1.89 1.92 July 2007 1.78 1.88 August 2007 1.75 2.01 September 2007 2.14 2.03 October 2007 2.55 2.14 November 2007 3.06 2.29 December 2007 3.07 2.35 January 2008 3.21 2.34 February 2008 3.27 2.43 March 2008 3.58 2.67 April 2008 3.26 2.40 May 2008 3.67 2.46 June 2008 3.96 2.53 * Excludes energy and unprocessed food. Return to table Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.) 2007 2008 2008 Indicator Q3 Industrial production Retail sales volume 1 2 Q4 Q1 Feb. Mar. Apr. May 1.4 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 -1.9 0.3 -0.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 1.0 New car registrations 0.5 0.7 -2.6 5.1 -8.7 8.0 -5.0 Employment 0.4 0.2 n.a. … … … … Producer prices 3 2.1 4.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.2 7.1 11.3 11.5 10.1 11.3 10.1 10.6 n.a. M3 3 1. Excludes construction. Return to table 2. Excludes motor vehicles. Return to table 3. Eurostat harmonized definition. Percent change from year earlier, s.a. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. United Kingdom Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a. Period CPI Core* October 1998 1.36 1.46 November 1998 1.35 1.48 December 1998 1.55 1.54 January 1999 1.59 1.52 February 1999 1.41 1.26 March 1999 1.67 1.31 April 1999 1.54 1.29 May 1999 1.31 1.11 June 1999 1.35 1.14 July 1999 1.30 1.11 August 1999 1.21 1.03 September 1999 1.17 0.88 October 1999 1.11 0.75 November 1999 1.18 0.73 December 1999 1.12 0.57 January 2000 0.80 0.25 February 2000 0.94 0.39 March 2000 0.64 0.18 April 2000 0.56 0.27 May 2000 0.54 0.28 June 2000 0.79 0.17 July 2000 0.88 0.05 August 2000 0.59 0.19 September 2000 0.96 0.40 October 2000 1.00 0.63 November 2000 1.06 0.56 December 2000 0.80 0.50 January 2001 0.86 0.74 February 2001 0.82 0.67 March 2001 0.91 0.80 April 2001 1.17 1.00 May 2001 1.66 1.16 June 2001 1.71 1.38 July 2001 1.45 1.59 August 2001 1.83 1.80 September 2001 1.33 1.41 October 2001 1.21 1.25 November 2001 0.80 1.20 December 2001 1.06 1.46 January 2002 1.63 1.72 February 2002 1.48 1.59 March 2002 1.54 1.61 April 2002 1.37 1.38 May 2002 0.83 1.29 June 2002 0.62 1.28 July 2002 1.10 1.53 August 2002 0.99 1.30 September 2002 0.99 1.24 October 2002 1.37 1.56 November 2002 1.55 1.52 December 2002 1.66 1.65 January 2003 1.34 1.43 February 2003 1.58 1.57 March 2003 1.54 1.48 April 2003 1.45 1.52 May 2003 1.25 1.31 June 2003 1.11 1.09 July 2003 1.31 1.30 August 2003 1.39 1.33 September 2003 1.43 1.31 October 2003 1.35 1.26 November 2003 1.33 1.19 December 2003 1.27 1.06 January 2004 1.43 1.30 February 2004 1.29 1.21 March 2004 1.11 1.07 April 2004 1.13 1.06 May 2004 1.47 1.18 June 2004 1.58 1.32 July 2004 1.41 1.20 August 2004 1.30 1.11 September 2004 1.08 0.94 October 2004 1.21 0.92 November 2004 1.45 1.07 December 2004 1.67 1.30 January 2005 1.62 1.28 February 2005 1.65 1.23 March 2005 1.91 1.42 April 2005 1.94 1.42 May 2005 1.91 1.54 June 2005 2.01 1.53 July 2005 2.34 1.84 August 2005 2.41 1.82 September 2005 2.46 1.71 October 2005 2.35 1.72 November 2005 2.14 1.64 December 2005 1.92 1.46 January 2006 1.95 1.38 February 2006 2.04 1.50 March 2006 1.81 1.35 April 2006 2.03 1.35 May 2006 2.24 1.19 June 2006 2.49 1.38 July 2006 2.37 1.10 August 2006 2.48 1.28 September 2006 2.41 1.60 October 2006 2.42 1.64 November 2006 2.70 1.79 December 2006 2.99 1.94 January 2007 2.71 1.81 February 2007 2.80 1.94 March 2007 3.07 2.22 April 2007 2.77 2.11 May 2007 2.50 2.20 June 2007 2.42 2.20 July 2007 1.85 1.91 August 2007 1.77 1.90 September 2007 1.76 1.75 October 2007 2.09 1.84 November 2007 2.09 1.80 December 2007 2.08 1.84 January 2008 2.19 1.79 February 2008 2.49 1.76 March 2008 2.46 1.68 April 2008 2.97 2.01 May 2008 3.34 2.14 June 2008 3.82 2.31 * Excludes energy and unprocessed food. Return to table Figure: Unemployment Rates Percent Period Labor force survey Claimant count October 1998 6.2 4.4 November 1998 6.1 4.4 December 1998 6.2 4.4 January 1999 6.2 4.3 February 1999 6.2 4.3 March 1999 6.2 4.3 April 1999 6.1 4.2 May 1999 6.0 4.2 June 1999 6.0 4.2 July 1999 5.9 4.1 August 1999 5.9 4.0 September 1999 5.8 4.0 October 1999 5.8 4.0 November 1999 5.8 3.9 December 1999 5.9 3.8 January 2000 5.8 3.8 February 2000 5.8 3.8 March 2000 5.7 3.7 April 2000 5.6 3.6 May 2000 5.5 3.6 June 2000 5.3 3.6 July 2000 5.3 3.5 August 2000 5.3 3.5 September 2000 5.4 3.4 October 2000 5.3 3.4 November 2000 5.2 3.4 December 2000 5.2 3.4 January 2001 5.2 3.3 February 2001 5.1 3.2 March 2001 5.0 3.2 April 2001 4.9 3.2 May 2001 5.0 3.2 June 2001 5.0 3.1 July 2001 5.1 3.1 August 2001 5.1 3.1 September 2001 5.1 3.1 October 2001 5.1 3.1 November 2001 5.2 3.1 December 2001 5.2 3.1 January 2002 5.1 3.1 February 2002 5.2 3.1 March 2002 5.2 3.1 April 2002 5.2 3.1 May 2002 5.2 3.1 June 2002 5.2 3.1 July 2002 5.2 3.1 August 2002 5.3 3.0 September 2002 5.2 3.0 October 2002 5.2 3.0 November 2002 5.1 3.0 December 2002 5.0 3.0 January 2003 5.1 3.0 February 2003 5.2 3.0 March 2003 5.1 3.0 April 2003 5.0 3.0 May 2003 5.0 3.0 June 2003 5.1 3.0 July 2003 5.1 3.0 August 2003 5.1 3.0 September 2003 5.0 3.0 October 2003 4.9 2.9 November 2003 4.9 2.9 December 2003 4.8 2.9 January 2004 4.8 2.9 February 2004 4.8 2.8 March 2004 4.8 2.8 April 2004 4.8 2.8 May 2004 4.8 2.7 June 2004 4.8 2.7 July 2004 4.7 2.7 August 2004 4.7 2.6 September 2004 4.7 2.6 October 2004 4.7 2.6 November 2004 4.7 2.6 December 2004 4.7 2.6 January 2005 4.8 2.6 February 2005 4.7 2.6 March 2005 4.7 2.6 April 2005 4.8 2.6 May 2005 4.8 2.7 June 2005 4.7 2.7 July 2005 4.7 2.7 August 2005 4.8 2.7 September 2005 5.0 2.8 October 2005 5.1 2.8 November 2005 5.2 2.8 December 2005 5.1 2.9 January 2006 5.2 2.8 February 2006 5.2 2.9 March 2006 5.3 2.9 April 2006 5.4 2.9 May 2006 5.5 2.9 June 2006 5.5 3.0 July 2006 5.5 3.0 August 2006 5.5 3.0 September 2006 5.5 3.0 October 2006 5.5 3.0 November 2006 5.5 2.9 December 2006 5.5 2.9 January 2007 5.5 2.9 February 2007 5.5 2.9 March 2007 5.4 2.8 April 2007 5.4 2.8 May 2007 5.4 2.7 June 2007 5.4 2.7 July 2007 5.4 2.6 August 2007 5.4 2.6 September 2007 5.3 2.6 October 2007 5.3 2.6 November 2007 5.2 2.5 December 2007 5.2 2.5 January 2008 5.2 2.5 February 2008 5.2 2.5 March 2008 5.3 2.5 April 2008 5.2 2.5 May 2008 ND 2.6 June 2008 ND 2.6 Figure: Purchasing Managers Survey 50+ = expansion Period Services Manufacturing October 1998 52.11 41.81 November 1998 47.80 41.56 December 1998 47.39 43.30 January 1999 48.25 44.74 February 1999 49.47 46.36 March 1999 53.03 47.98 April 1999 56.34 49.16 May 1999 56.44 50.47 June 1999 56.59 51.61 July 1999 58.05 52.44 August 1999 57.32 53.11 September 1999 57.09 53.95 October 1999 56.82 54.26 November 1999 59.54 53.36 December 1999 58.31 56.34 January 2000 57.05 52.15 February 2000 57.25 50.46 March 2000 58.08 51.32 April 2000 58.74 50.96 May 2000 58.46 51.38 June 2000 57.15 50.75 July 2000 57.97 51.25 August 2000 58.30 51.61 September 2000 54.99 51.19 October 2000 57.05 50.04 November 2000 56.98 51.52 December 2000 57.58 51.05 January 2001 57.12 52.29 February 2001 56.69 50.93 March 2001 55.68 49.38 April 2001 51.16 47.43 May 2001 51.95 46.41 June 2001 52.12 47.75 July 2001 50.33 47.13 August 2001 50.94 46.38 September 2001 48.05 46.42 October 2001 46.29 46.49 November 2001 47.27 45.49 December 2001 49.37 45.50 January 2002 51.45 47.51 February 2002 52.06 49.80 March 2002 53.80 51.08 April 2002 54.50 53.08 May 2002 56.75 52.86 June 2002 54.86 50.93 July 2002 54.66 49.16 August 2002 55.12 51.25 September 2002 55.48 49.80 October 2002 55.57 49.82 November 2002 54.91 49.15 December 2002 53.23 48.53 January 2003 52.29 48.57 February 2003 50.24 49.04 March 2003 49.02 46.81 April 2003 50.73 48.91 May 2003 51.86 48.99 June 2003 54.48 49.90 July 2003 56.62 51.41 August 2003 57.00 52.77 September 2003 58.69 53.30 October 2003 59.08 53.98 November 2003 59.59 53.81 December 2003 58.45 55.43 January 2004 59.76 56.31 February 2004 59.47 53.32 March 2004 58.74 53.71 April 2004 58.99 54.96 May 2004 57.40 55.75 June 2004 56.77 54.74 July 2004 56.22 56.24 August 2004 56.91 53.18 September 2004 54.75 51.81 October 2004 56.28 52.68 November 2004 56.71 54.73 December 2004 54.89 53.49 January 2005 55.88 51.94 February 2005 55.09 51.36 March 2005 57.05 51.89 April 2005 56.51 48.81 May 2005 55.08 46.73 June 2005 55.84 49.65 July 2005 56.26 49.55 August 2005 55.19 50.44 September 2005 55.05 51.14 October 2005 56.14 51.84 November 2005 55.76 51.20 December 2005 57.89 52.02 January 2006 57.00 52.72 February 2006 58.89 51.75 March 2006 57.36 50.72 April 2006 59.70 53.86 May 2006 59.17 52.77 June 2006 58.72 55.35 July 2006 57.87 53.39 August 2006 56.72 52.95 September 2006 56.96 54.27 October 2006 59.26 53.97 November 2006 59.78 52.48 December 2006 60.56 52.28 January 2007 59.22 53.62 February 2007 57.40 55.51 March 2007 57.58 54.23 April 2007 57.25 53.58 May 2007 57.18 54.49 June 2007 57.74 54.74 July 2007 57.02 55.89 August 2007 57.55 56.26 September 2007 56.69 54.76 October 2007 53.08 52.84 November 2007 51.95 54.06 December 2007 52.36 52.51 January 2008 52.46 50.49 February 2008 54.05 51.01 March 2008 52.11 50.83 April 2008 50.35 50.34 May 2008 49.77 49.46 June 2008 47.14 45.79 Figure: Labor Costs Percent, 12-month basis Period Unit wage costs* Average earnings** October 1998 3.54 4.99 November 1998 2.59 4.74 December 1998 1.90 4.15 January 1999 2.40 4.37 February 1999 2.71 4.81 March 1999 1.20 4.44 April 1999 1.49 4.08 May 1999 -0.30 4.17 June 1999 -0.39 5.29 July 1999 -0.39 4.47 August 1999 -2.24 4.91 September 1999 -2.64 4.66 October 1999 -1.66 5.19 November 1999 -2.82 5.17 December 1999 -0.69 6.25 January 2000 -0.10 6.12 February 2000 -2.73 5.34 March 2000 -1.78 5.10 April 2000 -1.96 4.56 May 2000 -1.88 4.00 June 2000 -2.47 3.87 July 2000 -0.99 3.86 August 2000 -1.70 4.26 September 2000 0.40 4.24 October 2000 -1.49 4.11 November 2000 -0.90 4.41 December 2000 -2.17 4.77 January 2001 -3.52 4.45 February 2001 -0.30 5.78 March 2001 0.20 4.45 April 2001 1.20 5.07 May 2001 1.81 4.96 June 2001 2.23 5.04 July 2001 1.20 4.52 August 2001 0.61 4.49 September 2001 0.20 4.37 October 2001 1.31 4.15 November 2001 2.42 3.73 December 2001 3.43 2.52 January 2002 3.44 3.00 February 2002 1.91 2.59 March 2002 2.21 3.39 April 2002 -0.69 3.66 May 2002 -0.69 3.86 June 2002 6.14 3.74 July 2002 0.69 3.94 August 2002 1.61 3.53 September 2002 0.60 3.62 October 2002 1.39 3.60 November 2002 0.49 4.07 December 2002 0.00 3.49 January 2003 0.29 3.39 February 2003 0.10 2.52 March 2003 -0.59 4.12 April 2003 -0.30 3.07 May 2003 0.60 3.25 June 2003 -6.26 3.15 July 2003 -2.26 3.61 August 2003 -0.50 3.50 September 2003 -1.59 3.67 October 2003 -3.93 3.75 November 2003 -2.94 3.36 December 2003 -4.59 4.01 January 2004 -4.59 4.09 February 2004 -3.36 3.73 March 2004 -3.95 3.78 April 2004 -2.89 4.51 May 2004 -3.47 4.41 June 2004 -2.79 4.48 July 2004 -1.21 4.38 August 2004 -2.59 4.63 September 2004 -2.92 4.61 October 2004 -0.72 4.67 November 2004 -2.43 4.57 December 2004 -0.82 4.30 January 2005 -0.61 4.37 February 2005 -1.43 5.09 March 2005 1.95 4.25 April 2005 0.10 4.15 May 2005 -0.82 4.05 June 2005 -0.82 3.86 July 2005 -1.73 4.45 August 2005 -0.51 4.00 September 2005 1.45 3.73 October 2005 1.23 3.29 November 2005 1.87 3.62 December 2005 1.34 4.21 January 2006 1.54 3.27 February 2006 1.97 4.59 March 2006 -1.31 4.16 April 2006 1.75 4.06 May 2006 0.72 4.30 June 2006 1.03 4.96 July 2006 1.14 3.77 August 2006 1.24 3.76 September 2006 0.72 4.00 October 2006 0.20 4.40 November 2006 -0.20 3.81 December 2006 -0.31 4.12 January 2007 -0.61 4.95 February 2007 0.51 4.39 March 2007 0.31 3.11 April 2007 -1.01 3.67 May 2007 1.03 3.81 June 2007 0.72 3.23 July 2007 0.92 3.79 August 2007 0.00 4.18 September 2007 0.71 4.16 October 2007 0.41 3.67 November 2007 1.33 4.14 December 2007 1.94 3.64 January 2008 1.33 3.86 February 2008 -0.30 3.60 March 2008 2.45 4.64 April 2008 1.22 3.54 May 2008 1.73 3.36 * Manufacturing industries. Return to table ** Whole economy, including bonuses. Return to table Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.) 2007 2008 2008 Indicator Q4 Real GDP Q2 Apr. May June July 2.2 Consumer confidence 3 2 … … … … 49.1 50.4 49.8 47.1 n.a. -0.2 n.a. 0.1 -0.8 n.a. n.a. 7.3 Business confidence 2 0.7 52.9 0.2 Industrial production 1.1 52.5 PMI Services 1 Trade balance Q1 12.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 -7.0 -3.8 -8.6 -16.0 -13.2 -14.6 -20.2 -26.0 -29.7 -26.7 n.a. 1. 50+ indicates expansion. Return to table 2. Percent balance. Return to table 3. Level in billions of US Dollars. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Canada Figure: Real GDP by Industry* Period Percent change from year earlier October 1998 3.69 November 1998 3.94 December 1998 4.01 January 1999 4.87 February 1999 4.42 March 1999 4.11 April 1999 4.79 May 1999 5.17 June 1999 5.92 July 1999 6.53 August 1999 6.03 September 1999 6.35 October 1999 6.13 November 1999 6.68 December 1999 6.33 January 2000 6.44 February 2000 5.88 March 2000 6.67 April 2000 5.79 May 2000 6.16 June 2000 5.80 July 2000 5.42 August 2000 5.25 September 2000 4.74 October 2000 4.63 November 2000 3.84 December 2000 3.42 January 2001 2.92 February 2001 2.87 March 2001 2.08 April 2001 2.09 -8.0 -8.3 n.a. n.a. May 2001 1.93 June 2001 1.44 July 2001 1.03 August 2001 0.96 September 2001 0.18 October 2001 0.39 November 2001 0.90 December 2001 0.47 January 2002 1.58 February 2002 1.96 March 2002 1.71 April 2002 2.56 May 2002 2.19 June 2002 2.42 July 2002 2.98 August 2002 3.07 September 2002 3.49 October 2002 3.80 November 2002 3.18 December 2002 3.13 January 2003 2.49 February 2003 2.43 March 2003 2.53 April 2003 1.60 May 2003 1.86 June 2003 2.01 July 2003 2.29 August 2003 0.88 September 2003 2.26 October 2003 2.03 November 2003 2.22 December 2003 2.80 January 2004 2.55 February 2004 2.13 March 2004 3.22 April 2004 3.66 May 2004 3.32 June 2004 3.70 July 2004 3.20 August 2004 4.52 September 2004 3.59 October 2004 3.01 November 2004 3.16 December 2004 2.90 January 2005 2.94 February 2005 3.32 March 2005 2.16 April 2005 2.54 May 2005 2.89 June 2005 2.64 July 2005 2.75 August 2005 2.99 September 2005 2.86 October 2005 3.15 November 2005 3.39 December 2005 3.74 January 2006 3.71 February 2006 3.75 March 2006 4.08 April 2006 3.51 May 2006 3.35 June 2006 2.98 July 2006 2.87 August 2006 2.73 September 2006 2.23 October 2006 2.27 November 2006 1.87 December 2006 1.79 January 2007 1.88 February 2007 2.05 March 2007 2.27 April 2007 2.24 May 2007 2.61 June 2007 2.85 July 2007 2.79 August 2007 2.65 September 2007 2.96 October 2007 3.05 November 2007 2.95 December 2007 1.88 January 2008 2.14 February 2008 1.36 March 2008 0.80 April 2008 1.20 * Constructed from various Statistics Canada surveys and supplements the quarterly income and expenditure-based estimates. Return to table Figure: Real Trade 1997 = 100 Period Real exports Real imports October 1998 113.18 108.67 November 1998 112.86 108.29 December 1998 114.29 109.15 January 1999 116.96 109.08 February 1999 119.04 113.21 March 1999 116.39 110.51 April 1999 117.02 111.69 May 1999 117.43 114.54 June 1999 119.41 114.41 July 1999 119.92 114.48 August 1999 124.12 115.44 September 1999 121.26 117.67 October 1999 123.18 120.25 November 1999 126.09 120.66 December 1999 127.72 123.73 January 2000 130.97 124.30 February 2000 126.80 123.65 March 2000 131.66 126.05 April 2000 127.90 124.82 May 2000 133.90 126.98 June 2000 134.97 126.65 July 2000 131.87 127.35 August 2000 133.88 127.86 September 2000 133.92 127.54 October 2000 134.12 125.91 November 2000 133.82 125.29 December 2000 132.77 126.26 January 2001 132.92 124.88 February 2001 125.64 118.84 March 2001 129.04 120.61 April 2001 128.91 121.93 May 2001 127.40 120.59 June 2001 126.57 122.04 July 2001 126.64 119.24 August 2001 125.80 120.30 September 2001 123.38 114.63 October 2001 122.97 116.64 November 2001 127.65 114.84 December 2001 126.04 112.78 January 2002 125.43 113.65 February 2002 130.68 118.15 March 2002 124.82 115.82 April 2002 127.10 118.98 May 2002 126.97 120.17 June 2002 126.45 124.72 July 2002 130.04 122.41 August 2002 130.46 125.10 September 2002 128.91 122.58 October 2002 128.97 122.81 November 2002 127.59 122.46 December 2002 125.23 124.41 January 2003 126.99 123.60 February 2003 124.53 123.62 March 2003 124.83 124.33 April 2003 123.19 122.54 May 2003 124.57 124.98 June 2003 122.67 125.06 July 2003 124.92 125.66 August 2003 119.77 117.81 September 2003 128.42 124.87 October 2003 128.03 126.39 November 2003 129.00 129.56 December 2003 130.28 129.71 January 2004 123.56 125.46 February 2004 129.98 131.01 March 2004 130.19 132.36 April 2004 133.34 131.51 May 2004 132.43 138.39 June 2004 137.01 133.21 July 2004 136.50 139.32 August 2004 135.02 137.22 September 2004 131.98 139.80 October 2004 133.46 139.95 November 2004 132.88 139.59 December 2004 133.29 142.03 January 2005 134.06 144.63 February 2005 133.46 142.70 March 2005 131.85 143.87 April 2005 131.31 142.05 May 2005 133.19 144.07 June 2005 133.46 144.86 July 2005 133.43 145.16 August 2005 137.35 146.64 September 2005 137.70 149.51 October 2005 139.41 150.46 November 2005 139.26 149.71 December 2005 141.56 153.16 January 2006 142.00 153.64 February 2006 135.96 147.06 March 2006 135.32 151.18 April 2006 135.35 152.41 May 2006 134.38 154.62 June 2006 136.58 156.12 July 2006 136.01 157.89 August 2006 135.36 157.91 September 2006 136.41 154.42 October 2006 133.94 155.42 November 2006 135.56 157.40 December 2006 144.34 160.13 January 2007 141.43 156.44 February 2007 136.67 157.10 March 2007 140.13 160.96 April 2007 141.56 158.61 May 2007 140.62 157.47 June 2007 137.16 162.12 July 2007 140.46 170.98 August 2007 139.42 164.40 September 2007 137.99 168.53 October 2007 137.87 170.92 November 2007 140.83 172.51 December 2007 130.99 166.53 January 2008 130.10 167.41 February 2008 135.11 167.04 March 2008 131.15 162.31 April 2008 129.00 162.47 May 2008 133.22 169.47 Figure: Unemployment Rate Period Percent October 1998 8.0 November 1998 8.1 December 1998 8.2 January 1999 7.9 February 1999 7.9 March 1999 7.9 April 1999 8.2 May 1999 8.0 June 1999 7.6 July 1999 7.6 August 1999 7.5 September 1999 7.4 October 1999 7.2 November 1999 6.9 December 1999 6.8 January 2000 6.7 February 2000 6.8 March 2000 6.8 April 2000 6.8 May 2000 6.7 June 2000 6.7 July 2000 6.8 August 2000 7.0 September 2000 6.9 October 2000 7.0 November 2000 7.0 December 2000 6.8 January 2001 6.9 February 2001 7.0 March 2001 7.1 April 2001 7.1 May 2001 7.0 June 2001 7.1 July 2001 7.1 August 2001 7.2 September 2001 7.2 October 2001 7.4 November 2001 7.6 December 2001 8.0 January 2002 8.0 February 2002 7.9 March 2002 7.8 April 2002 7.7 May 2002 7.8 June 2002 7.5 July 2002 7.6 August 2002 7.4 September 2002 7.5 October 2002 7.5 November 2002 7.5 December 2002 7.5 January 2003 7.4 February 2003 7.4 March 2003 7.3 April 2003 7.6 May 2003 7.9 June 2003 7.7 July 2003 7.7 August 2003 7.8 September 2003 7.9 October 2003 7.6 November 2003 7.5 December 2003 7.3 January 2004 7.3 February 2004 7.3 March 2004 7.4 April 2004 7.2 May 2004 7.2 June 2004 7.3 July 2004 7.1 August 2004 7.1 September 2004 7.0 October 2004 7.1 November 2004 7.2 December 2004 7.1 January 2005 6.9 February 2005 7.0 March 2005 6.9 April 2005 6.8 May 2005 6.9 June 2005 6.9 July 2005 6.7 August 2005 6.7 September 2005 6.7 October 2005 6.7 November 2005 6.3 December 2005 6.5 January 2006 6.6 February 2006 6.4 March 2006 6.4 April 2006 6.3 May 2006 6.1 June 2006 6.1 July 2006 6.4 August 2006 6.5 September 2006 6.4 October 2006 6.2 November 2006 6.3 December 2006 6.1 January 2007 6.2 February 2007 6.1 March 2007 6.1 April 2007 6.2 May 2007 6.0 June 2007 6.1 July 2007 6.0 August 2007 6.0 September 2007 5.9 October 2007 5.8 November 2007 5.9 December 2007 6.0 January 2008 5.8 February 2008 5.8 March 2008 6.0 April 2008 6.1 May 2008 6.1 June 2008 6.2 Figure: Consumer Price Inflation Percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a. Period CPI Core* October 1998 1.10 1.30 November 1998 1.22 1.41 December 1998 1.00 1.30 January 1999 0.66 0.97 February 1999 0.66 0.97 March 1999 0.99 1.18 April 1999 1.65 1.29 May 1999 1.53 1.39 June 1999 1.64 1.50 July 1999 1.86 1.50 August 1999 2.08 1.61 September 1999 2.63 1.93 October 1999 2.29 1.49 November 1999 2.18 1.39 December 1999 2.63 1.39 January 2000 2.19 1.18 February 2000 2.73 1.28 March 2000 3.04 1.28 April 2000 2.16 1.17 May 2000 2.37 1.06 June 2000 2.80 1.27 July 2000 2.90 1.16 August 2000 2.57 1.16 September 2000 2.67 1.05 October 2000 2.77 1.26 November 2000 3.21 1.47 December 2000 3.20 1.69 January 2001 2.99 1.80 February 2001 2.87 1.68 March 2001 2.43 1.89 April 2001 3.49 2.20 May 2001 3.90 2.30 June 2001 3.35 2.19 July 2001 2.71 2.51 August 2001 2.82 2.40 September 2001 2.60 2.29 October 2001 1.87 2.18 November 2001 0.62 1.76 December 2001 0.72 1.66 January 2002 1.35 1.87 February 2002 1.45 2.28 March 2002 1.85 2.16 April 2002 1.74 2.26 May 2002 1.12 2.15 June 2002 1.22 2.15 July 2002 2.13 2.04 August 2002 2.54 2.44 September 2002 2.33 2.54 October 2002 3.16 2.54 November 2002 4.42 3.16 December 2002 3.80 2.76 January 2003 4.51 3.26 February 2003 4.68 3.04 March 2003 4.25 2.82 April 2003 2.91 2.11 May 2003 2.81 2.40 June 2003 2.60 2.10 July 2003 2.09 1.90 August 2003 1.98 1.49 September 2003 2.18 1.68 October 2003 1.58 1.78 November 2003 1.58 1.78 December 2003 2.08 2.09 January 2004 1.27 1.48 February 2004 0.68 1.18 March 2004 0.78 1.27 April 2004 1.66 1.77 May 2004 2.44 1.47 June 2004 2.54 1.67 July 2004 2.34 1.86 August 2004 1.85 1.57 September 2004 1.84 1.46 October 2004 2.33 1.36 November 2004 2.42 1.65 December 2004 2.13 1.75 January 2005 1.94 1.65 February 2005 2.13 1.75 March 2005 2.31 1.84 April 2005 2.40 1.64 May 2005 1.62 1.64 June 2005 1.71 1.54 July 2005 2.00 1.35 August 2005 2.58 1.73 September 2005 3.24 1.73 October 2005 2.57 1.73 November 2005 1.99 1.53 December 2005 2.09 1.53 January 2006 2.75 1.63 February 2006 2.18 1.72 March 2006 2.16 1.71 April 2006 2.44 1.62 May 2006 2.81 1.99 June 2006 2.43 1.71 July 2006 2.33 1.99 August 2006 2.14 1.99 September 2006 0.74 2.27 October 2006 1.02 2.36 November 2006 1.39 2.16 December 2006 1.67 2.07 January 2007 1.11 2.26 February 2007 2.04 2.35 March 2007 2.30 2.34 April 2007 2.20 2.53 May 2007 2.19 2.23 June 2007 2.19 2.52 July 2007 2.19 2.33 August 2007 1.73 2.23 September 2007 2.47 2.03 October 2007 2.39 1.75 November 2007 2.47 1.57 December 2007 2.38 1.48 January 2008 2.19 1.38 February 2008 1.81 1.47 March 2008 1.35 1.28 April 2008 1.70 1.46 May 2008 2.23 1.46 June 2008 3.13 1.55 * Excludes 8 most volatile components and the effects of changes in indirect taxes. Return to table Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.) 2007 2008 2008 Indicator Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar. Apr. May June Industrial production -1.4 -2.1 n.a. -1.5 0.7 n.a. n.a. New manufacturing orders -0.5 -4.0 n.a. 4.0 -3.7 0.4 n.a. Retail sales 1.8 1.0 n.a. 0.5 0.4 0.1 n.a. Employment 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.0 97.3 93.4 n.a. … … … … 101.0 96.4 n.a. … … … … Consumer attitudes 1 Business confidence 1 1. 2002=100. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Chinese Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 Real GDP 1 Apr. May. Jun. 10.6 Industrial production Consumer prices Q2 3 Merch. trade balance 4 11.3 11.7 9.9 … … … 14.6 18.6 5.0 3.3 -2.7 4.5 .2 2.8 2 6.5 8.0 7.8 8.5 7.7 7.1 177.5 262.1 253.6 217.0 204.7 282.6 163.7 1. Annual rate. Quarterly data estimated by staff from reported four-quarter growth rates. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. China no longer reports a January IP number, which means that period/period changes cannot be computed for Jan. and Feb. Return to table 3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Imports are c.i.f. Return to table … Not applicable. Indian Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 Real GDP 1 May. Jun. Merch. trade balance 3 n.a. … … … 9.9 2.0 n.a. .3 -.8 n.a. 5.5 6.3 n.a. 6.9 6.8 n.a. 5.7 2 9.1 6.5 Consumer prices 2 Current account 4 Apr. 8.8 10.5 Industrial production Wholesale prices Q2 9.3 3.8 5.8 9.4 8.0 8.6 11.4 -53.1 -69.8 -96.4 n.a. -115.0 -111.4 n.a. -9.5 -12.1 -4.2 n.a. … … … 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. China and India Figure: Industrial Production January 2000 = 100 Period China India January 2002 124.85 108.25 February 2002 118.52 108.04 March 2002 122.00 108.98 April 2002 124.71 110.45 May 2002 127.45 110.13 June 2002 126.63 110.89 July 2002 128.02 112.43 August 2002 129.47 113.03 September 2002 131.17 112.51 October 2002 133.01 114.17 November 2002 134.53 112.99 December 2002 136.01 114.57 January 2003 141.51 115.43 February 2003 142.14 115.94 March 2003 142.13 115.44 April 2003 142.46 115.46 May 2003 143.63 117.22 June 2003 147.97 118.17 July 2003 149.84 119.51 August 2003 151.90 119.61 September 2003 153.74 120.50 October 2003 156.16 120.79 November 2003 159.17 122.73 December 2003 161.81 123.28 January 2004 158.70 124.58 February 2004 163.65 126.03 March 2004 168.18 124.69 April 2004 169.40 126.13 May 2004 170.51 125.01 June 2004 171.14 126.60 July 2004 174.24 129.48 August 2004 176.10 130.05 September 2004 178.08 131.82 October 2004 181.14 133.38 November 2004 183.48 132.62 December 2004 185.57 134.50 January 2005 185.26 133.94 February 2005 189.46 133.83 March 2005 192.44 136.82 April 2005 195.96 136.61 May 2005 197.47 138.13 June 2005 198.39 141.83 July 2005 201.38 135.55 August 2005 204.74 140.16 September 2005 207.03 140.90 October 2005 211.54 146.28 November 2005 213.71 140.85 December 2005 217.83 142.30 January 2006 207.47 145.50 February 2006 224.54 145.96 March 2006 226.56 148.73 April 2006 227.03 150.27 May 2006 232.43 153.89 June 2006 235.06 155.48 July 2006 235.43 153.40 August 2006 237.10 154.69 September 2006 239.78 157.61 October 2006 243.09 152.85 November 2006 246.50 163.31 December 2006 249.62 161.49 January 2007 270.81 162.44 February 2007 245.08 162.21 March 2007 269.77 170.50 April 2007 267.35 167.28 May 2007 270.11 169.93 June 2007 281.02 169.26 July 2007 278.73 166.11 August 2007 281.16 171.55 September 2007 285.02 168.51 October 2007 284.30 171.51 November 2007 292.25 171.40 December 2007 296.14 174.40 January 2008 310.79 172.51 February 2008 291.04 177.80 March 2008 314.70 177.12 April 2008 306.28 177.68 May 2008 320.04 176.32 June 2008 320.72 ND Figure: Consumer Prices Percent change from year earlier Period China India January 2002 -1.0 4.94 February 2002 0.0 5.19 March 2002 -0.8 5.17 April 2002 -1.3 4.69 May 2002 -1.1 4.66 June 2002 -0.8 4.16 July 2002 -0.9 3.89 August 2002 -0.7 3.86 September 2002 -0.7 4.30 October 2002 -0.8 5.18 November 2002 -0.7 3.60 December 2002 -0.4 3.20 January 2003 0.4 3.43 February 2003 0.2 3.86 March 2003 0.9 4.06 April 2003 1.0 5.12 May 2003 0.7 4.66 June 2003 0.3 4.41 July 2003 0.5 4.16 August 2003 0.9 3.10 September 2003 1.1 2.89 October 2003 1.8 3.29 November 2003 3.0 3.07 December 2003 3.2 3.72 January 2004 3.2 4.35 February 2004 2.1 4.13 March 2004 3.0 3.49 April 2004 3.8 2.23 May 2004 4.4 2.83 June 2004 5.0 3.02 July 2004 5.3 3.19 August 2004 5.3 4.61 September 2004 5.2 4.81 October 2004 4.3 4.57 November 2004 2.8 4.17 December 2004 2.4 3.79 January 2005 1.9 4.36 February 2005 3.9 4.17 March 2005 2.7 4.17 April 2005 1.8 4.96 May 2005 1.8 3.74 June 2005 1.6 3.32 July 2005 1.8 4.06 August 2005 1.3 3.45 September 2005 0.9 3.63 October 2005 1.2 4.18 November 2005 1.3 5.33 December 2005 1.6 5.57 January 2006 1.9 4.37 February 2006 0.9 4.57 March 2006 0.8 4.57 April 2006 1.2 4.65 May 2006 1.4 5.93 June 2006 1.5 7.27 July 2006 1.0 6.33 August 2006 1.3 5.94 September 2006 1.5 6.40 October 2006 1.4 6.92 November 2006 1.9 5.95 December 2006 2.8 6.53 January 2007 2.2 6.72 February 2007 2.7 7.56 March 2007 3.3 6.72 April 2007 3.0 6.67 May 2007 3.4 6.61 June 2007 4.4 5.69 July 2007 5.6 6.45 August 2007 6.5 7.26 September 2007 6.2 6.40 October 2007 6.5 5.51 November 2007 6.9 5.51 December 2007 6.5 5.51 January 2008 7.1 5.51 February 2008 8.7 5.47 March 2008 8.3 7.87 April 2008 8.5 6.86 May 2008 7.7 6.80 June 2008 7.1 ND Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances 3-mo. moving ave. (n.s.a.) Billions of dollars Period China India January 2002 3.17 -0.39 February 2002 3.52 -0.41 March 2002 3.03 -0.34 April 2002 2.67 -0.42 May 2002 1.92 -0.53 June 2002 2.36 -0.48 July 2002 2.34 -0.53 August 2002 2.50 -0.42 September 2002 2.06 -0.55 October 2002 2.06 -0.75 November 2002 2.02 -0.91 December 2002 2.69 -1.00 January 2003 1.91 -0.98 February 2003 1.52 -0.94 March 2003 0.42 -0.94 April 2003 1.26 -1.12 May 2003 1.94 -1.20 June 2003 2.40 -1.30 July 2003 2.08 -1.16 August 2003 1.89 -1.21 September 2003 1.45 -1.00 October 2003 1.67 -1.13 November 2003 2.07 -1.14 December 2003 3.60 -1.29 January 2004 2.62 -1.34 February 2004 1.10 -1.34 March 2004 -0.32 -1.24 April 2004 -0.16 -1.13 May 2004 0.74 -1.21 June 2004 0.81 -1.77 July 2004 1.51 -1.95 August 2004 2.31 -2.11 September 2004 3.48 -1.92 October 2004 3.97 -2.03 November 2004 5.23 -2.00 December 2004 6.48 -2.32 January 2005 8.79 -2.70 February 2005 8.48 -3.05 March 2005 8.21 -3.19 April 2005 7.28 -3.30 May 2005 8.03 -3.77 June 2005 8.28 -3.91 July 2005 9.18 -4.13 August 2005 9.33 -4.07 September 2005 8.93 -4.14 October 2005 8.32 -3.70 November 2005 7.72 -3.58 December 2005 8.35 -3.28 January 2006 9.51 -3.57 February 2006 9.22 -3.96 March 2006 10.52 -4.21 April 2006 11.33 -4.20 May 2006 13.31 -3.67 June 2006 13.09 -3.51 July 2006 13.15 -3.69 August 2006 14.51 -3.91 September 2006 15.48 -4.61 October 2006 17.19 -5.33 November 2006 17.85 -5.74 December 2006 19.07 -5.35 January 2007 18.88 -4.18 February 2007 23.38 -4.05 March 2007 20.75 -4.44 April 2007 21.48 -5.67 May 2007 18.16 -6.01 June 2007 22.90 -6.59 July 2007 23.84 -6.47 August 2007 23.80 -6.87 September 2007 23.47 -5.76 October 2007 22.58 -5.63 November 2007 22.67 -5.69 December 2007 20.85 -6.34 January 2008 21.83 -7.01 February 2008 20.75 -7.19 March 2008 21.14 -8.03 April 2008 18.76 -8.62 May 2008 20.26 -9.09 June 2008 18.08 ND Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Percent Period China India January 2002 5.85 6.50 February 2002 5.31 6.50 March 2002 5.31 8.00 April 2002 5.31 6.00 May 2002 5.31 6.00 June 2002 5.31 5.75 July 2002 5.31 5.75 August 2002 5.31 5.75 September 2002 5.31 5.75 October 2002 5.31 5.50 November 2002 5.31 5.50 December 2002 5.31 5.50 January 2003 5.31 5.50 February 2003 5.31 7.50 March 2003 5.31 7.00 April 2003 5.31 5.00 May 2003 5.31 5.00 June 2003 5.31 5.00 July 2003 5.31 5.00 August 2003 5.31 4.50 September 2003 5.31 4.50 October 2003 5.31 4.50 November 2003 5.31 4.50 December 2003 5.31 4.50 January 2004 5.31 4.50 February 2004 5.31 4.50 March 2004 5.31 6.00 April 2004 5.31 4.50 May 2004 5.31 4.50 June 2004 5.31 4.50 July 2004 5.31 4.50 August 2004 5.31 4.50 September 2004 5.31 4.50 October 2004 5.58 6.00 November 2004 5.58 6.00 December 2004 5.58 6.00 January 2005 5.58 6.00 February 2005 5.58 6.00 March 2005 5.58 6.00 April 2005 5.58 6.00 May 2005 5.58 6.00 June 2005 5.58 6.00 July 2005 5.58 6.00 August 2005 5.58 6.00 September 2005 5.58 6.00 October 2005 5.58 6.25 November 2005 5.58 6.25 December 2005 5.58 6.25 January 2006 5.58 6.50 February 2006 5.58 6.50 March 2006 5.58 6.50 April 2006 5.85 6.50 May 2006 5.85 6.50 June 2006 5.85 6.75 July 2006 5.85 7.00 August 2006 6.12 7.00 September 2006 6.12 7.00 October 2006 6.12 7.25 November 2006 6.12 7.25 December 2006 6.12 7.25 January 2007 6.12 7.50 February 2007 6.12 7.50 March 2007 6.39 7.50 April 2007 6.39 7.75 May 2007 6.57 7.75 June 2007 6.57 7.75 July 2007 6.84 7.75 August 2007 7.02 7.75 September 2007 7.29 7.75 October 2007 7.29 7.75 November 2007 7.29 7.75 December 2007 7.47 7.75 January 2008 7.47 7.75 February 2008 7.47 7.75 March 2008 7.47 7.75 April 2008 7.47 7.75 May 2008 7.47 7.75 June 2008 7.47 8.50 July 2008 ND 9.00 Figure: Gross External Debt Percent of GDP Period India 2002:Q1 22.31 2002:Q2 22.71 2002:Q3 22.23 2002:Q4 22.62 2003:Q1 21.34 2003:Q2 21.41 2003:Q3 20.86 2003:Q4 19.80 2004:Q1 19.15 2004:Q2 18.53 2004:Q3 18.25 2004:Q4 18.60 2005:Q1 19.23 2005:Q2 18.62 2005:Q3 18.56 2005:Q4 18.04 2006:Q1 17.73 2006:Q2 16.80 2006:Q3 18.81 2006:Q4 18.70 2007:Q1 18.56 2007:Q2 18.06 2007:Q3 18.52 2007:Q4 18.71 2008:Q1 19.15 Figure: ShortTerm External Debt Percent of reserves Period India 2002:Q1 5.31 2002:Q2 5.58 2002:Q3 5.62 2002:Q4 5.82 2003:Q1 6.43 2003:Q2 7.48 2003:Q3 7.21 2003:Q4 6.09 2004:Q1 4.07 2004:Q2 5.11 2004:Q3 5.28 2004:Q4 5.42 2005:Q1 5.50 2005:Q2 5.35 2005:Q3 5.99 2005:Q4 6.68 2006:Q1 5.96 2006:Q2 5.81 2006:Q3 6.68 2006:Q4 5.87 2007:Q1 6.22 2007:Q2 6.30 2007:Q3 12.81 NIEs Economic Indicators: Growth (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 Real GDP Q2 Apr. May. Jun. 1 Hong Kong 6.5 7.0 7.4 n.a. … … … Korea 4.2 5.9 3.3 3.4 … … … Singapore 7.0 5.5 14.6 n.a. … … … Taiwan 4.0 6.5 1.6 n.a. … … … Industrial production Hong Kong 2.4 -1.6 -3.6 n.a. … … … Korea 8.8 7.0 2.0 n.a. .9 -.6 n.a. 11.9 5.9 11.3 -14.8 -15.7 -5.2 1.1 4.7 7.8 -.5 .7 Singapore Taiwan .9 .2 .6 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. NIEs Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars, s.a.a.r.) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 Hong Kong Korea Q2 Apr. May. Jun. -17.9 -23.5 -34.1 -31.4 -13.5 -38.5 -42.1 27.9 29.4 2.4 24.6 32.6 10.4 30.6 Singapore 33.1 36.2 22.8 25.1 28.5 24.7 22.2 Taiwan 11.6 16.8 -.4 18.6 20.9 18.0 16.9 NIEs Economic Indicators: CPI Inflation (Percent change from year earlier, except as noted) Indicator 2008 2006 1 2007 1 Q1 Q2 Apr. May. Jun. Hong Kong 2.3 3.8 4.5 5.7 5.4 5.7 6.1 Korea 2.1 3.6 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.9 5.5 Singapore .8 4.4 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Taiwan .7 3.3 3.6 4.2 3.9 3.7 5.0 1. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec Return to table NIEs Figure: Industrial Production A line chart shows four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is January 2000 = 100. The Korea series begins at about 105.1 in 2001, and generally increases to about 172 in 2008:Q1. The Singapore series begins at about 90 in 2002, it fluctuates and generally increases to about 170 in 2008 and then decreases to end at about 136 in 2008:Q1. The Hong Kong series begins at about 86 in 2002, decreases to about 75 in late 2003, it generally increases to about 85 in late 205 and decreases to end at about 80 in 2008:Q1. The Taiwan series begins at about 95 in 2002, and generally increases to end at about 145 in 2008:Q1. Figure: Consumer Prices Percent change from year earlier Period Korea Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan January 2002 2.68 -1.10 -3.47 -1.68 February 2002 2.71 -0.62 -2.27 1.42 March 2002 2.34 -0.88 -2.18 0.01 April 2002 2.52 -1.05 -3.01 0.21 May 2002 2.97 -0.35 -3.11 -0.26 June 2002 2.56 0.14 -3.30 0.09 July 2002 2.07 -0.42 -3.48 0.41 August 2002 2.31 -0.44 -3.22 -0.28 September 2002 2.98 -0.42 -3.69 -0.77 October 2002 2.82 -0.20 -3.60 -1.70 November 2002 3.45 0.23 -3.60 -0.56 December 2002 3.78 0.44 -1.46 0.76 January 2003 3.83 0.87 -1.55 1.09 February 2003 3.94 0.39 -2.03 -1.52 March 2003 4.54 0.76 -2.13 -0.18 April 2003 3.77 0.86 -1.75 -0.10 May 2003 3.15 -0.09 -2.43 0.32 June 2003 3.00 -0.32 -3.12 -0.55 July 2003 3.15 0.27 -4.00 -0.98 August 2003 2.92 0.46 -3.82 -0.58 September 2003 3.26 0.69 -3.24 -0.22 October 2003 3.77 0.65 -2.65 -0.05 November 2003 3.44 0.56 -2.36 -0.47 December 2003 3.44 0.75 -1.87 -0.05 January 2004 3.42 0.68 -1.48 0.01 February 2004 3.31 2.02 -1.98 0.64 March 2004 3.09 0.99 -2.08 0.90 April 2004 3.27 1.46 -1.58 0.95 May 2004 3.31 2.36 -0.90 0.92 June 2004 3.66 1.86 -0.20 1.74 July 2004 4.31 2.04 0.91 3.34 August 2004 4.76 1.78 0.81 2.55 September 2004 3.80 1.89 0.71 2.79 October 2004 3.79 1.92 0.50 2.39 November 2004 3.31 1.75 0.50 1.53 December 2004 3.03 1.31 0.30 1.62 January 2005 3.45 0.39 -0.30 0.49 February 2005 3.38 -0.02 0.71 1.94 March 2005 3.01 0.42 0.71 2.30 April 2005 3.13 0.37 0.40 1.64 May 2005 3.07 -0.03 0.70 2.30 June 2005 2.80 -0.17 1.11 2.38 July 2005 2.49 0.07 1.11 2.40 August 2005 1.94 0.69 1.11 3.57 September 2005 2.44 0.62 1.51 3.16 October 2005 2.28 1.07 1.31 2.74 November 2005 2.48 0.98 1.20 2.50 December 2005 2.62 1.27 1.40 2.21 January 2006 2.26 1.74 1.81 2.67 February 2006 2.03 1.21 1.30 0.98 March 2006 2.03 1.16 1.70 0.41 April 2006 2.03 1.08 1.90 1.23 May 2006 2.30 1.09 2.10 1.59 June 2006 2.42 1.41 2.09 1.73 July 2006 2.34 1.11 2.29 0.79 August 2006 2.67 0.68 2.50 -0.56 September 2006 2.46 0.45 2.09 -1.23 October 2006 2.19 0.43 1.98 -1.19 November 2006 2.08 0.54 2.18 0.24 December 2006 2.09 0.81 2.27 0.67 January 2007 1.72 0.24 1.97 0.35 February 2007 2.18 0.61 0.79 1.75 March 2007 2.18 0.74 2.36 0.85 April 2007 2.47 0.61 1.27 0.68 May 2007 2.35 1.02 1.27 -0.02 June 2007 2.55 1.30 1.37 0.13 July 2007 2.51 2.63 1.56 -0.33 August 2007 2.03 2.93 1.66 1.61 September 2007 2.31 2.69 1.65 3.11 October 2007 3.02 3.65 3.21 5.33 November 2007 3.52 4.24 3.39 4.80 December 2007 3.61 4.43 3.77 3.33 January 2008 3.92 6.64 3.29 2.94 February 2008 3.58 6.53 6.28 3.86 March 2008 3.95 6.69 4.14 3.94 April 2008 4.12 7.55 5.42 3.88 May 2008 4.87 7.49 5.61 3.71 June 2008 5.54 7.51 6.07 4.97 Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances 3-mo. moving ave. (n.s.a.) Billions of dollars Period Korea Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan January 2002 0.84 0.87 -0.80 2.07 February 2002 0.92 0.62 -0.54 2.07 March 2002 1.31 0.50 -0.42 1.87 April 2002 1.39 0.33 -0.30 1.48 May 2002 1.37 0.55 -0.50 1.36 June 2002 1.16 0.54 -0.69 1.54 July 2002 1.08 0.61 -0.74 1.36 August 2002 1.23 0.72 -0.85 1.40 September 2002 1.09 0.87 -0.71 1.07 October 2002 1.43 0.81 -0.69 1.10 November 2002 1.39 0.95 -0.61 1.25 December 2002 1.33 0.96 -0.69 1.63 January 2003 0.99 1.71 -0.70 1.53 February 2003 0.86 1.70 -0.74 1.40 March 2003 0.67 1.92 -0.68 1.30 April 2003 0.83 1.57 -0.52 1.50 May 2003 0.92 1.84 -0.23 1.52 June 2003 1.61 1.86 -0.30 1.49 July 2003 1.67 2.01 -0.32 1.61 August 2003 2.20 1.92 -0.58 1.60 September 2003 2.39 2.12 -0.66 1.67 October 2003 2.73 2.05 -0.88 1.71 November 2003 2.63 2.04 -1.11 1.44 December 2003 2.63 1.97 -1.19 1.16 January 2004 2.80 1.83 -1.27 0.90 February 2004 3.21 1.99 -1.27 0.75 March 2004 3.21 1.82 -1.03 0.74 April 2004 3.30 1.85 -1.31 0.80 May 2004 3.19 1.64 -1.15 1.06 June 2004 3.10 1.98 -1.48 0.84 July 2004 3.42 1.96 -1.24 0.83 August 2004 3.11 2.13 -1.10 0.76 September 2004 3.38 2.17 -1.05 0.92 October 2004 2.66 2.43 -0.94 0.51 November 2004 2.76 2.32 -0.84 0.26 December 2004 2.78 2.34 -0.62 -0.36 January 2005 3.61 2.12 -0.38 -0.39 February 2005 3.40 2.32 -0.70 -0.26 March 2005 3.27 2.01 -0.98 0.21 April 2005 2.57 2.17 -1.13 0.21 May 2005 2.66 2.29 -1.06 0.14 June 2005 2.65 2.41 -0.57 0.31 July 2005 2.78 2.47 -0.68 0.49 August 2005 2.73 2.48 -0.64 0.51 September 2005 2.49 2.46 -1.09 0.45 October 2005 2.43 2.47 -0.90 0.60 November 2005 2.38 2.54 -0.78 0.88 December 2005 2.37 2.96 -0.89 1.65 January 2006 1.97 3.29 -1.04 1.81 February 2006 1.70 2.85 -1.51 0.77 March 2006 1.94 2.86 -1.34 0.21 April 2006 2.15 2.75 -1.50 0.26 May 2006 2.47 2.99 -1.53 0.86 June 2006 2.34 2.81 -1.60 0.95 July 2006 2.05 2.48 -1.43 0.88 August 2006 2.03 2.48 -1.32 1.23 September 2006 2.11 2.44 -1.33 1.27 October 2006 2.27 3.07 -1.56 1.16 November 2006 2.90 3.35 -1.55 1.25 December 2006 2.74 2.84 -1.65 1.33 January 2007 2.81 3.13 -1.76 1.13 February 2007 2.53 2.66 -1.38 1.71 March 2007 2.54 3.37 -1.30 1.41 April 2007 2.62 2.94 -1.50 1.64 May 2007 2.33 3.30 -1.73 0.96 June 2007 2.39 3.15 -2.27 1.27 July 2007 2.55 3.21 -2.17 0.84 August 2007 3.05 3.36 -2.19 1.24 September 2007 3.31 3.44 -1.92 1.39 October 2007 3.20 3.25 -2.07 2.13 November 2007 2.21 2.64 -2.20 2.24 December 2007 1.51 2.09 -2.33 1.51 January 2008 0.71 2.11 -2.19 0.81 February 2008 0.45 2.17 -2.54 0.38 March 2008 0.20 1.90 -2.84 -0.03 April 2008 1.10 1.59 -2.49 0.57 May 2008 1.33 1.71 -2.59 0.66 June 2008 ND 2.10 -2.61 1.55 Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Percent Period Korea Hong Kong Taiwan January 2002 4.00 3.25 2.13 February 2002 4.00 3.25 2.13 March 2002 4.00 ND 2.13 April 2002 4.00 3.25 2.13 May 2002 4.25 3.25 2.13 June 2002 4.25 3.25 1.88 July 2002 4.25 3.25 1.88 August 2002 4.25 3.25 1.88 September 2002 4.25 3.25 1.88 October 2002 4.25 3.25 1.88 November 2002 4.25 2.75 1.63 December 2002 4.25 2.75 1.63 January 2003 4.25 ND 1.63 February 2003 4.25 2.75 1.63 March 2003 4.25 2.75 1.63 April 2003 4.25 2.75 1.63 May 2003 4.00 2.75 1.63 June 2003 4.00 2.50 1.38 July 2003 3.75 2.50 1.38 August 2003 3.75 2.50 1.38 September 2003 3.75 2.50 1.38 October 2003 3.75 2.50 1.38 November 2003 3.75 2.50 1.38 December 2003 3.75 2.50 1.38 January 2004 3.75 2.50 1.38 February 2004 3.75 2.50 1.38 March 2004 3.75 2.50 1.38 April 2004 3.75 2.50 1.38 May 2004 3.75 2.50 1.38 June 2004 3.75 2.50 1.38 July 2004 3.75 2.75 1.38 August 2004 3.50 3.00 1.38 September 2004 3.50 3.25 1.63 October 2004 3.50 3.25 1.63 November 2004 3.25 3.50 1.63 December 2004 3.25 3.75 1.75 January 2005 3.25 ND 1.75 February 2005 3.25 4.00 1.75 March 2005 3.25 4.25 1.88 April 2005 3.25 4.25 1.88 May 2005 3.25 4.50 1.88 June 2005 3.25 4.50 1.88 July 2005 3.25 4.75 2.00 August 2005 3.25 5.00 2.00 September 2005 3.25 5.25 2.13 October 2005 3.50 5.25 2.13 November 2005 3.50 5.50 2.13 December 2005 3.75 5.75 2.25 January 2006 3.75 5.75 2.25 February 2006 4.00 6.00 2.25 March 2006 4.00 6.25 2.38 April 2006 4.00 6.25 2.38 May 2006 4.00 6.50 2.38 June 2006 4.25 6.75 2.50 July 2006 4.25 6.75 2.50 August 2006 4.50 6.75 2.50 September 2006 4.50 6.75 2.63 October 2006 4.50 6.75 2.63 November 2006 4.50 6.75 2.63 December 2006 4.50 6.75 2.75 January 2007 4.50 6.75 2.75 February 2007 4.50 6.75 2.75 March 2007 4.50 6.75 2.88 April 2007 4.50 6.75 2.88 May 2007 4.50 6.75 2.88 June 2007 4.50 6.75 3.13 July 2007 4.75 6.75 3.13 August 2007 5.00 6.75 3.13 September 2007 5.00 6.25 3.25 October 2007 5.00 6.25 3.25 November 2007 5.00 6.00 3.25 December 2007 5.00 5.75 3.38 January 2008 5.00 4.50 3.38 February 2008 5.00 4.50 3.38 March 2008 ND 3.75 3.50 April 2008 ND 3.75 3.50 May 2008 ND 3.50 3.50 June 2008 ND 3.50 3.63 Figure: Gross External Debt Percent of GDP Period Korea 2002:Q1 26.61 2002:Q2 25.58 2002:Q3 24.84 2002:Q4 24.84 2003:Q1 25.71 2003:Q2 26.80 2003:Q3 26.20 2003:Q4 25.52 2004:Q1 25.72 2004:Q2 25.27 2004:Q3 24.49 2004:Q4 23.86 2005:Q1 23.29 2005:Q2 23.19 2005:Q3 23.57 2005:Q4 23.66 2006:Q1 23.84 2006:Q2 25.98 2006:Q3 27.87 2006:Q4 26.84 2007:Q1 28.20 2007:Q2 29.68 2007:Q3 35.22 Figure: ShortTerm External Debt Percent of reserves Period Korea 2002:Q1 41.53 2002:Q2 42.16 2002:Q3 45.04 2002:Q4 40.98 2003:Q1 44.87 2003:Q2 43.27 2003:Q3 40.26 2003:Q4 35.31 2004:Q1 35.58 2004:Q2 34.41 2004:Q3 30.28 2004:Q4 28.32 2005:Q1 30.87 2005:Q2 32.34 2005:Q3 32.60 2005:Q4 31.34 2006:Q1 34.42 2006:Q2 42.03 2006:Q3 47.33 2006:Q4 45.21 2007:Q1 46.60 2007:Q2 51.77 2007:Q3 56.81 ASEAN-4 Economic Indicators: Growth (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2007 Indicator 2008 2006 2007 Q4 Q1 Mar. Apr. May. Real GDP 1 Indonesia 5.8 6.1 3.0 3.0 … … … Malaysia 5.4 7.4 6.5 5.2 … … … Philippines 5.6 6.5 5.1 3.0 … … … Thailand 4.3 5.8 7.2 5.9 … … … Industrial production 2 Indonesia 3 -1.6 2.3 .4 .3 -.8 1.7 1.3 -4.4 2.8 .4 -2.6 3.7 -2.3 -1.3 2.9 -2.6 7.4 Thailand .9 2.3 -8.5 Philippines 5.6 4.6 Malaysia 8.2 3.9 2.0 -3.7 1.3 1.6 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Annual data are annual averages. Return to table 3. Staff estimate. Return to table … Not applicable. ASEAN-4 Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars, s.a.a.r.) 2007 Indicator 2008 2006 2007 Q4 Q1 Mar. Apr. May. Indonesia 39.7 39.6 36.9 44.7 53.5 24.0 36.4 Malaysia 29.5 29.2 28.1 33.9 28.1 53.5 64.0 Philippines -4.4 -5.0 -9.4 -10.6 -12.3 -3.1 -6.3 1.0 11.6 12.6 -6.1 25.7 Thailand .3 1.4 ASEAN-4 Economic Indicators: CPI Inflation (Percent change from year earlier, except as noted) Indicator 2008 2006 1 2007 1 Q1 Q2 Apr. May. Jun. Indonesia 6.5 6.5 7.6 n.a. 9.0 10.4 n.a. Malaysia 3.1 2.4 2.6 4.9 3.0 3.8 7.7 Philippines 4.3 3.9 5.5 9.7 8.3 9.5 11.4 Thailand 3.5 3.2 5.0 7.5 6.2 7.6 8.9 1. Dec./Dec. Return to table n.a. Not available. ASEAN-4 Figure: Industrial Production January 2000 = 100 Period Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand January 2002 140.31 104.96 93.99 109.52 February 2002 134.20 109.64 98.32 111.22 March 2002 139.44 104.35 95.46 115.34 April 2002 148.40 109.60 103.71 114.60 May 2002 145.52 109.96 101.90 119.58 June 2002 145.90 107.73 97.32 117.57 July 2002 146.97 112.26 96.78 118.10 August 2002 145.10 111.10 97.77 123.49 September 2002 146.40 112.56 100.51 120.63 October 2002 149.33 112.19 101.91 123.17 November 2002 154.75 112.35 103.20 127.94 December 2002 119.67 112.08 98.36 120.95 January 2003 148.65 109.09 99.39 131.53 February 2003 153.58 119.49 98.73 127.41 March 2003 155.13 113.12 105.64 131.85 April 2003 149.26 116.70 96.68 136.61 May 2003 145.77 122.63 100.44 133.65 June 2003 153.35 116.97 98.36 132.91 July 2003 152.74 121.29 100.63 135.24 August 2003 152.78 119.64 100.21 131.96 September 2003 152.12 122.56 94.19 136.08 October 2003 153.67 125.06 94.22 140.85 November 2003 137.92 125.89 94.67 137.14 December 2003 156.09 128.86 91.43 146.46 January 2004 157.42 130.89 98.67 148.36 February 2004 149.42 133.08 98.65 151.64 March 2004 152.53 134.34 98.96 143.49 April 2004 151.75 134.41 94.74 149.42 May 2004 152.94 134.87 94.07 146.56 June 2004 152.97 136.42 97.23 147.30 July 2004 153.69 134.78 94.93 153.23 August 2004 158.24 135.84 91.39 145.71 September 2004 158.66 133.57 95.79 154.60 October 2004 173.13 134.78 94.85 155.66 November 2004 143.54 129.34 94.59 155.77 December 2004 160.32 137.31 90.92 159.47 January 2005 161.27 138.04 93.95 157.46 February 2005 166.70 133.56 96.30 153.44 March 2005 164.84 141.67 96.77 160.21 April 2005 156.53 138.11 96.76 163.60 May 2005 162.05 137.08 94.94 162.75 June 2005 156.46 140.12 95.15 168.15 July 2005 156.60 137.78 96.95 166.46 August 2005 158.24 141.93 98.25 166.88 September 2005 156.18 143.16 93.20 171.01 October 2005 164.50 143.63 99.80 168.15 November 2005 145.54 139.63 100.17 167.94 December 2005 146.22 139.40 93.00 169.10 January 2006 151.96 143.10 89.81 167.09 February 2006 154.10 144.05 91.39 173.65 March 2006 148.42 147.86 96.43 176.40 April 2006 153.23 144.66 86.59 170.90 May 2006 152.26 145.17 88.82 177.14 June 2006 155.51 148.03 86.25 179.37 July 2006 155.47 146.84 83.21 176.93 August 2006 155.32 147.71 85.92 179.58 September 2006 158.21 146.46 85.42 179.58 October 2006 152.50 140.54 87.82 177.88 November 2006 164.31 149.57 89.84 181.27 December 2006 165.55 147.74 86.96 180.53 January 2007 161.29 146.98 87.89 182.43 February 2007 159.17 146.44 81.84 181.48 March 2007 161.80 144.42 90.77 183.92 April 2007 165.33 146.24 83.04 184.44 May 2007 163.06 150.14 82.26 187.41 June 2007 163.39 149.31 84.63 186.24 July 2007 164.72 150.21 85.72 190.58 August 2007 162.80 149.10 85.01 197.04 September 2007 166.16 150.85 84.14 195.03 October 2007 158.32 147.28 85.70 200.53 November 2007 170.90 154.09 86.12 202.96 December 2007 168.82 156.30 92.39 202.01 January 2008 171.85 158.11 85.36 208.04 February 2008 168.40 156.17 87.01 208.57 March 2008 169.07 149.30 85.89 200.85 April 2008 169.62 153.44 88.40 203.39 May 2008 168.21 154.06 86.10 206.56 Figure: Consumer Prices Percent change from year earlier Period Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand January 2002 14.29 1.08 3.71 0.75 February 2002 14.84 1.18 3.23 0.27 March 2002 14.14 2.05 3.51 0.57 April 2002 13.40 1.83 3.50 0.39 May 2002 13.03 1.94 3.50 0.11 June 2002 11.64 2.05 2.23 0.20 July 2002 10.26 2.05 2.51 0.10 August 2002 10.84 2.05 2.98 0.29 September 2002 10.58 2.05 2.69 0.40 October 2002 10.20 2.05 2.59 1.49 November 2002 10.09 1.60 2.40 1.19 December 2002 9.62 1.60 2.49 1.58 January 2003 8.56 1.60 2.75 2.22 February 2003 7.58 1.60 3.22 2.02 March 2003 7.14 0.63 3.02 1.71 April 2003 7.60 0.95 3.29 1.60 May 2003 7.23 0.95 3.38 1.90 June 2003 7.15 0.74 3.92 1.70 July 2003 6.52 0.95 3.72 1.80 August 2003 6.71 0.95 3.43 2.20 September 2003 6.38 1.05 3.61 1.69 October 2003 6.35 1.27 3.61 1.19 November 2003 5.34 1.05 3.88 1.79 December 2003 5.00 1.16 3.87 1.79 January 2004 4.73 0.94 4.11 1.28 February 2004 4.55 0.84 4.01 2.17 March 2004 5.05 0.94 4.18 2.37 April 2004 5.88 0.94 4.25 2.46 May 2004 6.55 1.15 4.51 2.45 June 2004 6.98 1.36 5.43 3.05 July 2004 7.45 1.36 6.56 3.15 August 2004 6.86 1.46 6.81 3.13 September 2004 6.29 1.57 7.24 3.63 October 2004 6.04 2.09 7.67 3.53 November 2004 6.08 2.19 8.17 3.03 December 2004 6.24 2.18 8.57 2.93 January 2005 7.23 2.49 8.41 2.73 February 2005 7.11 2.49 8.50 2.51 March 2005 8.78 2.60 8.45 3.19 April 2005 8.10 2.59 8.50 3.55 May 2005 7.47 3.10 8.45 3.73 June 2005 7.57 3.20 7.56 3.82 July 2005 8.01 2.99 7.14 5.34 August 2005 8.46 3.71 7.20 5.60 September 2005 9.09 3.60 6.99 5.96 October 2005 17.72 3.17 7.04 6.24 November 2005 18.33 3.36 7.07 5.89 December 2005 16.98 3.26 6.70 5.79 January 2006 16.97 3.25 6.73 5.88 February 2006 17.86 3.24 7.57 5.57 March 2006 15.67 4.76 7.64 5.71 April 2006 15.39 4.55 7.13 6.03 May 2006 15.69 3.91 6.86 6.18 June 2006 15.65 3.90 6.72 5.89 July 2006 15.28 4.10 6.36 4.44 August 2006 15.01 September 2006 3.28 6.25 3.78 14.56 3.27 5.70 2.68 October 2006 6.17 3.07 5.37 2.85 November 2006 5.25 2.96 4.65 3.50 December 2006 6.50 3.05 4.33 3.50 January 2007 6.24 3.24 3.86 3.05 February 2007 6.27 3.14 2.64 2.32 March 2007 6.48 1.55 2.19 2.04 April 2007 6.31 1.55 2.34 1.84 May 2007 6.06 1.45 2.41 1.91 June 2007 5.83 1.45 2.32 1.91 July 2007 6.10 1.63 2.59 1.73 August 2007 6.56 1.92 2.37 1.13 September 2007 6.95 1.83 2.66 2.09 October 2007 6.82 1.92 2.73 2.51 November 2007 6.68 2.30 3.23 3.03 December 2007 6.54 2.39 3.94 3.21 January 2008 7.35 2.28 4.86 4.26 February 2008 7.38 2.66 5.36 5.41 March 2008 8.15 2.76 6.37 5.29 April 2008 8.97 3.05 8.29 6.19 May 2008 10.41 3.81 9.54 7.59 ND 7.69 11.39 8.87 June 2008 Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances 3-mo. moving ave. (n.s.a.) Billions of dollars Period Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand January 2002 2.13 1.06 0.30 0.22 February 2002 2.20 1.15 0.18 0.24 March 2002 2.19 1.23 0.03 0.29 April 2002 2.29 1.01 -0.39 0.25 May 2002 2.28 0.97 -0.47 0.30 June 2002 2.34 0.98 -0.48 0.26 July 2002 2.26 1.16 -0.30 0.23 August 2002 2.21 1.19 -0.45 0.10 September 2002 2.15 1.19 -0.47 0.15 October 2002 2.09 1.28 -0.53 0.26 November 2002 2.01 1.40 -0.43 0.33 December 2002 1.92 1.36 -0.37 0.17 January 2003 2.03 1.56 -0.36 0.20 February 2003 2.23 1.65 -0.35 0.24 March 2003 2.40 1.87 -0.38 0.37 April 2003 2.44 1.82 -0.38 0.43 May 2003 2.42 1.89 -0.48 0.49 June 2003 2.48 2.00 -0.38 0.60 July 2003 2.50 1.88 -0.40 0.48 August 2003 2.49 1.88 -0.25 0.34 September 2003 2.37 1.78 -0.24 0.19 October 2003 2.18 1.79 -0.17 0.13 November 2003 2.25 1.62 -0.26 0.25 December 2003 2.26 1.50 -0.40 0.02 January 2004 2.17 1.60 -0.55 0.19 February 2004 1.91 1.73 -0.55 0.10 March 2004 1.74 1.82 -0.53 0.17 April 2004 1.77 1.80 -0.47 0.06 May 2004 1.90 1.87 -0.38 0.06 June 2004 1.95 1.82 -0.35 0.22 July 2004 1.91 1.93 -0.41 0.27 August 2004 2.00 1.91 -0.36 0.08 September 2004 2.34 2.02 -0.35 -0.05 October 2004 2.69 1.93 -0.26 -0.03 November 2004 2.77 1.66 -0.23 -0.02 December 2004 2.25 1.51 -0.20 0.13 January 2005 2.01 1.55 -0.16 -0.34 February 2005 1.91 1.89 -0.29 -0.54 March 2005 2.27 2.25 -0.39 -0.95 April 2005 2.22 2.40 -0.50 -0.94 May 2005 2.15 2.34 -0.51 -0.99 June 2005 1.96 2.25 -0.57 -1.15 July 2005 2.04 2.02 -0.48 -0.85 August 2005 2.00 2.15 -0.52 -0.58 September 2005 2.24 2.11 -0.55 -0.12 October 2005 2.35 2.34 -0.62 -0.28 November 2005 2.76 2.13 -0.56 -0.33 December 2005 2.81 2.16 -0.52 -0.58 January 2006 3.07 2.11 -0.41 -0.34 February 2006 3.05 2.28 -0.35 -0.35 March 2006 3.25 2.36 -0.17 -0.01 April 2006 3.22 2.28 -0.16 0.03 May 2006 3.21 2.37 -0.28 0.09 June 2006 2.96 2.39 -0.33 -0.01 July 2006 3.03 2.59 -0.40 -0.15 August 2006 3.13 2.58 -0.35 -0.02 September 2006 3.34 2.71 -0.36 0.15 October 2006 3.36 2.56 -0.38 0.31 November 2006 3.43 2.32 -0.42 0.44 December 2006 3.68 2.35 -0.55 0.12 January 2007 3.58 2.29 -0.39 0.39 February 2007 3.64 2.44 -0.30 0.33 March 2007 3.57 2.03 -0.12 1.03 April 2007 3.75 2.04 -0.11 0.90 May 2007 3.53 2.19 -0.09 1.14 June 2007 3.42 2.54 -0.13 1.10 July 2007 3.40 2.71 -0.43 0.94 August 2007 3.34 2.57 -0.58 0.78 September 2007 3.12 2.76 -0.64 0.56 October 2007 2.96 2.62 -0.51 0.79 November 2007 2.93 2.62 -0.68 0.98 December 2007 3.07 2.34 -0.78 1.05 January 2008 3.30 2.57 -0.93 1.09 February 2008 3.31 2.89 -0.80 0.32 March 2008 3.72 2.82 -0.88 0.02 April 2008 3.15 3.34 -0.67 -0.50 May 2008 3.18 4.04 -0.60 0.58 Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Percent Period Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand January 2002 16.93 2.75 7.50 1.83 February 2002 16.86 2.70 7.25 1.75 March 2002 16.76 2.71 7.00 1.65 April 2002 16.61 2.72 7.00 1.63 May 2002 15.51 2.71 7.00 1.63 June 2002 15.11 2.72 7.00 1.60 July 2002 14.93 2.74 7.00 1.57 August 2002 14.35 2.73 7.00 1.67 September 2002 13.22 2.72 7.00 1.69 October 2002 13.10 2.74 7.00 1.69 November 2002 13.06 2.75 7.00 1.60 December 2002 12.99 2.79 7.00 1.52 January 2003 12.69 2.77 7.00 1.52 February 2003 12.24 2.75 7.00 1.41 March 2003 11.40 2.81 7.00 1.58 April 2003 11.06 2.74 7.00 1.69 May 2003 10.44 2.76 7.00 1.68 June 2003 9.53 2.77 7.00 1.60 July 2003 9.10 2.75 6.75 1.13 August 2003 8.91 2.73 6.75 1.11 September 2003 8.66 2.71 6.75 1.10 October 2003 8.48 2.71 6.75 1.10 November 2003 ND 2.71 6.75 1.06 December 2003 8.31 2.71 6.75 1.01 January 2004 7.86 2.70 6.75 0.95 February 2004 7.48 2.71 6.75 0.98 March 2004 ND 2.71 6.75 0.99 April 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 0.97 May 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 0.98 June 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 1.00 July 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 1.04 August 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 1.13 September 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 1.43 October 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 1.53 November 2004 7.41 2.70 6.75 1.69 December 2004 ND 2.70 6.75 1.79 January 2005 ND 2.70 6.75 1.85 February 2005 ND 2.70 6.75 1.84 March 2005 ND 2.70 6.75 1.81 April 2005 ND 2.70 7.00 2.08 May 2005 7.95 2.70 7.00 2.25 June 2005 8.25 2.70 7.00 2.42 July 2005 8.50 2.70 7.00 2.55 August 2005 9.50 2.70 7.00 2.70 September 2005 10.00 2.70 7.25 3.10 October 2005 11.00 2.70 7.50 3.39 November 2005 12.25 3.00 7.50 3.69 December 2005 12.75 3.00 7.50 3.85 January 2006 12.75 3.00 7.50 4.03 February 2006 12.75 3.25 7.50 4.11 March 2006 12.75 3.25 7.50 4.31 April 2006 12.75 3.50 7.50 4.56 May 2006 12.50 3.50 7.50 4.63 June 2006 12.50 3.50 7.50 4.82 July 2006 12.25 3.50 7.50 4.86 August 2006 11.75 3.49 7.50 4.86 September 2006 11.25 3.50 7.50 4.86 October 2006 10.75 3.50 ND 4.89 November 2006 10.25 3.50 7.50 4.90 December 2006 9.75 3.50 7.50 4.89 January 2007 9.50 3.50 7.50 4.84 February 2007 9.25 3.50 ND 4.74 March 2007 9.00 3.50 7.50 4.50 April 2007 9.00 3.50 7.50 4.17 May 2007 8.75 3.50 7.50 3.85 June 2007 8.50 3.50 ND 3.50 July 2007 8.25 3.50 6.00 3.39 August 2007 8.25 3.49 6.00 3.25 September 2007 8.25 3.50 ND 3.25 October 2007 8.25 3.50 5.75 3.25 November 2007 8.25 3.50 5.50 3.25 December 2007 ND 3.50 5.25 3.25 January 2008 8.00 3.50 5.00 3.25 February 2008 8.00 3.50 ND 3.25 March 2008 8.00 3.50 5.00 3.25 April 2008 8.00 3.50 5.00 3.25 May 2008 8.25 3.50 ND 3.25 June 2008 8.50 3.50 5.25 3.25 July 2008 ND ND 5.75 3.50 Figure: Gross External Debt A line chart shows four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines", and "Thailand" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent of GDP. The Indonesia series begins at about 75 percent in 2002, and generally decreases to end at about 30 in 2007:Q4. The Malaysia series begins at about 43 percent in 2002, increases to about 50 in 2003, and generally decreases to end at about 33 in 2007:Q3. The Philippines series begins at about 75 percent in 2002, decreases to about 65 in 2002:Q4, increases to about 75 in 2003:Q3, and then generally decreases to end at about 32.5 in 2008:Q1. The Thailand series begins at about 40 percent in 2002, it decreases to about 35 in 2002:Q4, increases to about 40 in 2003:Q1, and generally decreases to end at about 22.5 in 2007:Q3. Figure: Short-Term External Debt Percent of reserves Period Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand 2002:Q1 63.78 31.89 36.90 37.87 2002:Q2 58.63 28.39 40.25 33.96 2002:Q3 55.37 28.77 42.69 33.27 2002:Q4 50.05 32.51 41.71 29.55 2003:Q1 48.86 30.37 48.57 27.52 2003:Q2 48.80 32.32 48.39 27.50 2003:Q3 47.29 30.11 48.23 24.18 2003:Q4 44.92 26.50 45.25 22.03 2004:Q1 37.80 24.60 56.67 22.28 2004:Q2 38.24 28.08 50.23 20.27 2004:Q3 40.78 27.70 44.89 22.16 2004:Q4 47.51 24.29 38.47 20.39 2005:Q1 49.37 21.98 39.86 24.38 2005:Q2 53.76 22.08 40.28 27.57 2005:Q3 62.11 22.75 39.11 29.30 2005:Q4 55.15 23.99 40.15 26.75 2006:Q1 54.19 22.54 34.45 30.43 2006:Q2 51.14 22.67 31.82 25.83 2006:Q3 15.72 22.68 30.13 29.03 2006:Q4 29.70 19.87 25.01 22.44 2007:Q1 26.66 19.11 23.61 22.22 2007:Q2 29.65 19.48 25.36 23.62 2007:Q3 30.09 22.40 24.85 22.72 2007:Q4 ND ND 23.45 ND 2008:Q1 ND ND 20.28 ND Mexican Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 1 Q2 Apr. May. Jun. 3.7 4.0 2.1 n.a. … … … Overall economic activity 5.1 3.1 -.4 n.a. -.1 .3 n.a. Industrial production 5.4 1.8 -.2 n.a. -.9 .1 n.a. Unemployment rate2 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 Real GDP 3 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.9 4.5 5.0 5.3 4 -6.1 -10.1 -12.1 -6.9 -10.3 -4.1 -6.2 Merchandise imports 4 256.1 281.9 309.7 314.0 315.5 309.7 316.7 Merchandise exports 4 249.9 271.9 297.6 307.1 305.2 305.6 310.4 -2.1 -5.4 -6.1 n.a. … … … Consumer prices Merch. trade balance Current account 5 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent; counts as unemployed those working one hour a week or less. Return to table 3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Brazilian Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 1 Q2 Apr. May. Jun. 4.9 6.1 2.9 n.a. … … … Industrial production 2.8 6.0 .5 n.a. .2 -.5 n.a. Unemployment rate2 10.0 9.3 8.4 7.8 8.0 7.6 7.7 3.3 4.5 4.6 5.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 46.5 40.0 22.3 33.5 18.5 52.7 29.3 13.6 1.7 -43.0 -26.6 -40.4 -8.3 -31.1 Real GDP Consumer prices 3 Merch. trade balance Current account 4 5 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent. Return to table 3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Price index is IPCA. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Argentine Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Apr. May. Jun. Real GDP 1 8.5 9.2 2.6 n.a. … … … Industrial production 8.4 7.6 -1.9 1.3 5.8 -.8 -3.9 Unemployment rate2 10.2 8.5 8.4 n.a. … … … 9.6 8.4 8.4 9.1 8.9 9.1 9.3 12.3 11.1 11.8 8.8 4.6 5.5 6.0 8.0 7.5 6.2 n.a. … … … Consumer prices 3 Merch. trade balance Current account 5 4 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent; n.s.a. Return to table 3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Venezuelan Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 Real GDP 1 11.4 2 -9.1 n.a. Apr. … May. … Jun. … 10.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 29.7 28.2 30.0 30.8 -34.6 -34.3 n.a. … … … 32.7 5 n.a. 25.4 23.7 47.9 n.a. … … … 27.1 Merch. trade balance 4 n.a. 22.5 -23.0 Non-oil trade balance 4 8.5 17.0 Unemployment rate Consumer prices 3 Current account 8.5 Q2 20.0 40.0 n.a. … … … 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent. Return to table 3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Return to table 5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate. Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. Latin America Figure: Industrial Production January 2000 = 100 Argentina Brazil Mexico January 2002 Period 76.29 105.92 96.39 February 2002 77.32 107.82 96.58 March 2002 72.89 109.11 98.14 April 2002 78.56 107.82 97.95 May 2002 80.00 106.44 98.63 June 2002 79.38 107.67 98.24 July 2002 79.69 108.65 98.54 August 2002 81.55 108.10 98.63 September 2002 81.55 108.68 97.66 October 2002 82.58 113.61 97.75 November 2002 85.15 112.33 97.85 December 2002 87.01 109.04 97.36 January 2003 91.34 107.31 97.75 February 2003 89.90 106.87 98.24 March 2003 89.07 107.02 97.56 April 2003 90.21 107.39 97.66 May 2003 90.52 106.21 96.88 June 2003 92.06 104.77 97.27 July 2003 93.92 105.80 98.34 August 2003 93.92 106.92 98.24 September 2003 94.33 111.33 95.61 October 2003 97.11 113.70 98.44 November 2003 97.32 115.11 98.54 December 2003 97.63 112.76 98.54 January 2004 102.58 112.65 98.83 February 2004 101.65 112.44 99.12 March 2004 102.68 114.81 101.07 97.94 114.93 100.39 April 2004 May 2004 100.72 117.05 100.29 June 2004 102.68 117.13 100.68 July 2004 103.71 118.90 101.37 August 2004 104.12 119.73 101.56 September 2004 104.43 120.52 102.05 October 2004 104.85 120.93 102.93 November 2004 104.95 120.67 101.37 December 2004 106.80 120.87 102.64 January 2005 110.72 120.39 102.83 February 2005 107.22 118.13 103.13 March 2005 109.48 120.50 101.76 April 2005 110.31 120.72 102.93 May 2005 111.03 121.67 103.42 June 2005 110.52 125.09 103.22 July 2005 109.69 121.67 102.15 August 2005 112.06 122.44 104.79 September 2005 112.99 120.92 104.59 October 2005 113.09 120.83 105.18 November 2005 114.33 121.66 106.45 December 2005 114.85 125.02 107.62 January 2006 114.74 122.87 108.98 February 2006 117.63 124.87 108.40 March 2006 118.04 123.81 108.79 April 2006 118.97 124.47 110.06 May 2006 119.79 125.67 110.16 June 2006 121.55 123.18 110.45 July 2006 121.24 125.41 109.67 August 2006 121.34 125.70 109.77 September 2006 122.58 124.96 109.86 October 2006 122.89 125.51 109.77 November 2006 124.33 126.68 109.96 December 2006 124.95 127.53 109.28 January 2007 122.06 127.20 109.77 February 2007 126.19 128.13 109.77 March 2007 126.80 129.76 111.23 April 2007 127.01 129.82 110.64 May 2007 128.45 132.09 111.52 June 2007 128.25 133.21 111.82 July 2007 124.64 132.87 112.21 August 2007 133.51 134.57 111.91 September 2007 133.09 133.77 112.50 October 2007 134.43 138.30 112.40 November 2007 136.19 135.58 112.11 December 2007 136.49 134.52 112.60 January 2008 136.60 137.00 112.40 February 2008 133.40 136.32 112.21 March 2008 130.52 136.94 111.82 April 2008 137.73 137.24 110.84 May 2008 137.32 136.55 110.94 Figure: Consumer Prices Percent change from year earlier Period January 2002 Argentina Brazil Mexico 0.77 7.68 4.85 February 2002 4.16 7.59 4.90 March 2002 7.90 7.86 4.73 April 2002 18.27 8.07 4.75 May 2002 22.91 7.86 4.76 June 2002 28.31 7.73 5.02 July 2002 32.92 7.58 5.54 August 2002 36.59 7.49 5.25 September 2002 38.53 7.97 4.88 October 2002 39.46 8.47 4.85 November 2002 40.58 10.97 5.26 December 2002 40.91 12.58 5.64 January 2003 39.57 14.59 5.20 February 2003 36.14 15.96 5.59 March 2003 31.59 16.67 5.66 April 2003 19.34 16.88 5.26 May 2003 14.30 17.35 4.77 June 2003 10.28 16.69 4.36 July 2003 7.45 15.55 4.15 August 2003 5.04 15.18 4.04 September 2003 3.63 15.24 3.99 October 2003 3.97 14.09 3.90 November 2003 3.58 11.08 3.93 December 2003 3.47 9.33 3.89 January 2004 2.54 7.72 4.21 February 2004 2.13 6.69 4.56 March 2004 2.13 5.87 4.21 April 2004 3.09 5.25 4.21 May 2004 4.32 5.12 4.36 June 2004 5.09 6.01 4.46 July 2004 5.17 6.73 4.50 August 2004 5.52 7.13 4.84 September 2004 6.06 6.66 5.03 October 2004 5.74 6.82 5.37 November 2004 5.33 7.22 5.40 December 2004 5.83 7.57 5.13 January 2005 6.95 7.33 4.53 February 2005 7.95 7.30 4.25 March 2005 9.03 7.47 4.36 April 2005 8.78 8.01 4.60 May 2005 8.70 7.98 4.66 June 2005 9.18 7.23 4.41 July 2005 9.81 6.54 4.49 August 2005 9.91 5.97 3.97 September 2005 10.41 5.99 3.48 October 2005 10.69 6.32 3.02 November 2005 11.93 6.19 2.92 December 2005 12.08 5.69 3.29 January 2006 11.86 5.77 3.92 February 2006 11.33 5.57 3.73 March 2006 11.03 5.37 3.40 April 2006 11.67 4.67 3.20 May 2006 11.59 4.26 3.03 June 2006 11.15 4.02 3.23 July 2006 10.75 3.97 3.08 August 2006 10.87 3.86 3.48 September 2006 10.51 3.71 4.08 October 2006 10.52 3.32 4.27 November 2006 9.94 3.05 4.09 December 2006 9.72 3.26 4.03 January 2007 9.59 3.13 3.96 February 2007 9.54 3.15 4.10 March 2007 9.10 3.09 4.21 April 2007 8.89 3.10 3.99 May 2007 8.87 3.30 3.96 June 2007 8.83 3.84 4.00 July 2007 8.71 3.88 4.14 August 2007 8.73 4.34 4.04 September 2007 8.59 4.31 3.78 October 2007 8.36 4.24 3.73 November 2007 8.50 4.31 3.93 December 2007 8.41 4.47 3.75 January 2008 8.19 4.48 3.70 February 2008 8.40 4.58 3.72 March 2008 8.81 4.65 4.25 April 2008 8.92 4.97 4.55 May 2008 9.10 5.50 4.95 June 2008 ND 6.01 5.27 Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances 3-mo. moving ave. (n.s.a.) Billions of dollars Period Argentina Brazil Mexico January 2002 1.04 0.70 -0.75 February 2002 1.18 0.56 -0.69 March 2002 1.35 0.43 -0.71 April 2002 1.43 0.44 -0.74 May 2002 1.37 0.42 -0.69 June 2002 1.31 0.42 -0.64 July 2002 1.31 0.63 -0.65 August 2002 1.38 1.00 -0.62 September 2002 1.46 1.52 -0.61 October 2002 1.52 1.84 -0.60 November 2002 1.55 1.95 -0.62 December 2002 1.45 1.88 -0.58 January 2003 1.46 1.73 -0.31 February 2003 1.48 1.62 -0.08 March 2003 1.50 1.49 -0.14 April 2003 1.34 1.54 -0.61 May 2003 1.36 1.89 -0.83 June 2003 1.43 2.14 -0.79 July 2003 1.57 2.15 -0.61 August 2003 1.44 2.13 -0.64 September 2003 1.27 2.13 -0.52 October 2003 1.17 2.31 -0.45 November 2003 1.19 2.24 -0.41 December 2003 1.15 2.44 -0.43 January 2004 1.04 2.40 -0.22 February 2004 0.99 2.50 -0.27 March 2004 1.00 2.37 -0.31 April 2004 1.09 2.32 -0.67 May 2004 1.09 2.51 -0.57 June 2004 1.04 2.91 -0.67 July 2004 1.02 3.23 -0.60 August 2004 0.96 3.21 -0.78 September 2004 1.01 2.90 -0.64 October 2004 1.01 2.84 -0.61 November 2004 1.04 2.71 -0.81 December 2004 0.97 2.98 -1.19 January 2005 0.98 3.06 -1.38 February 2005 0.89 3.37 -1.20 March 2005 0.92 3.22 -0.96 April 2005 0.85 3.60 -0.76 May 2005 0.84 3.57 -0.61 June 2005 0.79 3.82 -0.44 July 2005 0.92 3.85 -0.56 August 2005 1.09 3.73 -0.65 September 2005 1.20 3.74 -0.58 October 2005 1.13 3.50 -0.46 November 2005 0.96 4.02 -0.46 December 2005 0.94 4.15 -0.52 January 2006 0.94 4.27 0.05 February 2006 0.96 3.92 0.24 March 2006 0.96 3.59 0.10 April 2006 0.96 3.44 -0.34 May 2006 0.98 3.23 -0.50 June 2006 1.00 3.44 -0.43 July 2006 0.97 3.84 -0.56 August 2006 1.03 4.09 -0.55 September 2006 1.00 4.19 -0.88 October 2006 1.03 3.94 -1.00 November 2006 1.04 3.95 -1.05 December 2006 1.13 4.21 -0.81 January 2007 0.98 4.10 -0.92 February 2007 0.92 4.12 -0.97 March 2007 0.78 3.39 -1.00 April 2007 0.87 3.75 -0.99 May 2007 0.85 3.78 -1.04 June 2007 0.93 4.04 -1.17 July 2007 0.80 3.27 -1.05 August 2007 0.70 2.85 -1.01 September 2007 0.66 2.78 -0.90 October 2007 0.90 3.21 -0.91 November 2007 1.17 3.18 -0.52 December 2007 1.33 ND -0.25 January 2008 1.42 ND -0.29 February 2008 1.35 ND -0.94 March 2008 1.18 ND -1.01 April 2008 0.80 ND -0.95 May 2008 0.58 ND -0.50 June 2008 ND ND -0.57 Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates Percent Period Brazil Mexico January 2002 19.00 8.00 February 2002 18.75 7.65 March 2002 18.50 7.25 April 2002 18.50 5.45 May 2002 18.50 7.24 June 2002 18.50 8.15 July 2002 18.00 5.50 August 2002 18.00 6.65 September 2002 18.00 8.10 October 2002 21.00 7.75 November 2002 22.00 7.00 December 2002 25.00 8.25 January 2003 25.50 9.00 February 2003 26.50 9.27 March 2003 26.50 8.90 April 2003 26.50 6.00 May 2003 26.50 4.75 June 2003 26.00 4.40 July 2003 24.50 4.05 August 2003 22.00 4.50 September 2003 20.00 4.25 October 2003 19.00 4.70 November 2003 17.50 6.25 December 2003 16.50 6.10 January 2004 16.50 5.20 February 2004 16.50 6.70 March 2004 16.25 6.15 April 2004 16.00 6.20 May 2004 16.00 6.35 June 2004 16.00 6.60 July 2004 16.00 6.75 August 2004 16.00 7.15 September 2004 16.25 7.66 October 2004 16.75 7.80 November 2004 17.25 8.25 December 2004 17.75 8.70 January 2005 18.25 8.83 February 2005 18.75 9.20 March 2005 19.25 9.50 April 2005 19.50 9.51 May 2005 19.75 9.75 June 2005 19.75 9.75 July 2005 19.75 9.75 August 2005 19.75 9.50 September 2005 19.50 9.25 October 2005 19.00 9.00 November 2005 18.50 8.75 December 2005 18.00 8.25 January 2006 17.25 7.75 February 2006 ND 7.50 March 2006 16.50 7.25 April 2006 15.75 7.00 May 2006 15.75 7.00 June 2006 15.25 7.00 July 2006 14.75 7.00 August 2006 14.25 7.00 September 2006 14.25 7.00 October 2006 13.75 7.00 November 2006 13.25 7.00 December 2006 13.25 7.00 January 2007 13.00 7.00 February 2007 13.00 7.00 March 2007 12.75 7.00 April 2007 12.50 7.25 May 2007 12.50 7.25 June 2007 12.00 7.25 July 2007 11.50 7.25 August 2007 11.50 7.25 September 2007 11.25 7.25 October 2007 11.25 7.50 November 2007 11.25 7.50 December 2007 11.25 7.50 January 2008 11.25 7.50 February 2008 11.25 7.50 March 2008 11.25 7.50 April 2008 11.75 7.50 May 2008 11.75 7.50 June 2008 12.25 7.75 July 2008 ND 8.00 Figure: Gross External Debt Percent of GDP Argentina Brazil Mexico 2002:Q1 Period 122.66 145.72 25.53 2002:Q2 170.23 152.42 24.00 2002:Q3 174.37 175.78 24.78 2002:Q4 166.07 195.72 25.19 2003:Q1 141.49 188.18 26.52 2003:Q2 121.90 159.26 24.66 2003:Q3 95.73 147.46 24.51 2003:Q4 117.37 137.14 25.59 2004:Q1 112.09 134.31 24.38 2004:Q2 108.24 131.30 23.98 2004:Q3 110.20 121.23 23.78 2004:Q4 106.62 110.30 23.29 2005:Q1 99.14 104.64 24.13 2005:Q2 65.72 89.67 23.15 2005:Q3 60.61 78.33 21.70 2005:Q4 58.74 68.26 21.25 2006:Q1 51.75 64.84 20.62 2006:Q2 51.32 60.47 21.34 2006:Q3 49.32 58.03 20.23 2006:Q4 47.01 61.23 20.23 2007:Q1 46.94 61.55 20.32 2007:Q2 45.48 59.86 20.81 2007:Q3 44.28 57.65 20.70 2007:Q4 ND 52.57 ND 2008:Q1 ND 50.58 ND Figure: Short-Term External Debt Percent of reserves Period Argentina Brazil Mexico 2002:Q1 176.45 109.00 55.65 2002:Q2 222.15 91.70 52.08 2002:Q3 207.37 90.94 51.08 2002:Q4 180.54 86.16 45.22 2003:Q1 169.67 81.14 47.63 2003:Q2 163.67 81.87 44.53 2003:Q3 159.42 36.17 42.72 2003:Q4 418.51 41.34 36.69 2004:Q1 424.09 39.42 42.47 2004:Q2 382.23 40.14 36.22 2004:Q3 382.15 37.97 29.84 2004:Q4 376.41 35.73 29.60 2005:Q1 373.88 33.27 34.89 2005:Q2 175.51 28.20 33.47 2005:Q3 151.32 29.11 28.13 2005:Q4 134.00 35.26 26.94 2006:Q1 152.11 30.09 27.88 2006:Q2 132.52 26.46 26.14 2006:Q3 125.76 24.86 24.77 2006:Q4 68.62 23.87 27.70 2007:Q1 59.58 31.77 32.38 2007:Q2 54.16 31.36 32.14 2007:Q3 58.38 26.37 28.03 Turkish Economic Indicators (Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted) 2008 Indicator 2006 2007 Q1 Real GDP 1 Apr. May. Jun. 5.7 4 Unemployment rate 5 n.a. … … … 3.4 n.a. 2.6 -1.0 n.a. 8.4 8.8 10.3 9.7 10.7 10.6 -54.1 -62.9 -73.1 n.a. -75.0 -70.3 n.a. -31.9 Merch. trade balance 3 24.2 5.4 9.7 Consumer prices 2 3.4 5.8 Industrial production Current account Q2 -37.8 -48.1 n.a. -58.6 -55.6 n.a. 9.9 9.9 9.9 n.a. … … … 1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4. Return to table 2. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Return to table 3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Imports are c.i.f. Return to table 4. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate. Return to table 5. Percent Return to table n.a. Not available. … Not applicable. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014 Accessible Material August 2008 Greenbook Supplement Tables and Charts† Supplemental Notes Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items (Percent change from previous period at a compound annual rate; based on seasonally adjusted data, chain-type quantity indexes) 2007:Q4 Final Item Gross Domestic Product 2008:Q1 Final 2008:Q2 Advance -.2 Consumer spending 1.9 .8 Final sales .9 .9 3.9 1.0 .9 1.5 Durables .4 -4.3 -3.0 Nondurables .3 -.4 4.0 1.4 2.4 1.1 Services Business fixed investment 3.4 2.4 2.3 Nonresidential structures 8.5 8.6 14.4 Equipment and software 1.0 -.6 -3.4 Residential investment -27.0 -25.1 -15.6 Federal government -.5 5.8 6.7 State and local government 1.6 -.3 1.6 Exports of goods and services 4.4 5.1 9.2 Imports of goods and services -2.3 -.8 -6.6 -8.1 -10.2 -62.2 -484.5 -462.0 -395.2 2.3 3.5 3.0 1.7 2.6 n.a. 13.9 43.6 n.a. -57.3 -17.5 n.a. ADDENDA: Inventory investment 1 Net exports of goods and services 1 Nominal GDP Nominal GDI Statistical discrepancy 2 Change in economic profits 2 3 11.3 11.2 n.a. Real disposable personal income .6 -.1 11.3 Personal saving rate (percent) .4 .3 2.6 Profit share 1. Level, billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table 2. Billions of dollars. Return to table 3. Economic profits as a share of GNP. Return to table n.a. not available. Return to table Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product (Based on seasonally adjusted data, chain-type indexes) Item Gross domestic product Gross domestic purchases 2007:Q4 Final 2008:Q1 Final 2008:Q2 Advance 2.8 2.6 1.1 4.0 3.5 4.2 Personal consumption expenditures Food and Beverages Energy Excluding food and energy Market-based components Business fixed investment Equipment and Software Computers and peripheral equipment Nonresidential structures Residential investment 4.3 3.6 4.2 3.7 4.9 6.4 32.2 19.0 27.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 .6 2.3 .4 -.4 1.6 -9.0 -13.5 -7.1 4.5 2.7 3.6 .0 -2.6 -2.2 5.1 6.2 7.0 Exports of goods and services 6.2 9.1 10.3 Imports of goods and services 12.8 12.8 28.6 4.6 8.0 11.5 Government consumption expenditures and investment Nonpetroleum goods ADDENDA: GDP less food and energy 2.4 2.0 1.4 Gross domestic purchases less food and energy 2.4 2.2 2.2 NOTE: Percent change from previous period at compound annual rates Annual Revision to the National Income and Product Accounts Figure: Real GDP A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008. Unit is four-quarter percent change. The two series track fairly closely throughout the period. Both series overlap one another and begin at about 1.5 in 2003:Q1, they generally increase to about 4.2 in 2004:Q1, and generally decrease to about 3.2 by 2004:Q4. The series then split into individual series and generally decreases to about 1.3 (Revised) and 1.6 (Previous). They increase to about 2.75 in 2007:Q3, and generally decreases to end at about 1.8 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008. Unit is four-quarter percent change. The two series track fairly closely throughout the period. Both series begin at about 2 in 2003: Q1, increase to about 4 in 2004:Q1, they generally decrease to about 3.6 in 2004:Q4, and then split into individual series. The "Previous" series decreases to end at about 2 in 2008:Q1, and the "Revised" series decreases and ends at about 1.25 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Real Residential Investment A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008. Unit is four-quarter percent change. The two series track fairly closely throughout the period. Both series begin at about 5.1 in 2003: Q1, increase to about 13 in 2004:Q2, they generally decrease to about 7 in 2004:Q4, and then split into individual series. The "Previous" series decreases to end at about -20 in 2008:Q1, and the "Revised" series decreases and ends at about -22.5 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Core PCE Prices A line chart two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008. Unit is four-quarter percent change. The two series track fairly closely throughout the period. Both series begin at about 1.5 in 2003: Q1, decrease to about 1.3 in 2003:Q3, they generally increase to about 2.25 in 2004:Q4, and then split into individual series. The "Previous" series fluctuates between about 1.9 and 2.4 and ends at about 2.0 in 2008:Q1. The "Revised" series fluctuates between about 2.0 and 2.5 and ends at about 2.25 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Market-Based Core PCE Prices A line chart two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008. Unit is four-quarter percent change. The two series track fairly closely throughout the period. Both series begin at about 1.25 in 2003: Q1, decrease to about 1.0 in 2003:Q4, they generally increase to about 2.1 in 2006:Q3, and then split into individual series. The "Previous" series decreases to about 1.7 and ends at about 1.8 in 2008:Q1. The "Revised" series decreases to about 1.6 in 2007:Q3 and ends at about 2.4 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Real DPI A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008. Unit is four-quarter percent change. Both series begin at about 0.5 in 2003: Q1, they generally increase to about 4.1 in 2004:Q1, and 2005:Q1, then split into individual series. The "Previous" series decreases to about 1 in 2005:Q4, it generally increases to about 3.6 in 2007:Q3, and decreases to end at about 1.5 in 2008:Q1. The "Revised" series decreases to about 0.9 in 2005:Q4, it generally increases to about 4 in 2006:Q3, then generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2008:Q1, and increases to end at about 3.5 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Personal Saving Rate A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008. Unit is percent. Both series begin at about 1.9 in 2003: Q1, they generally decrease to about -0.7 in 2005:Q3, fluctuate between about 0 and 1, and increases to end at about 2.5 in 2008:Q2. Figure: Profits as a Share of GNP A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent. Both series begin at about 8.5 in 2003: Q1, they generally increase to about 11 in 2004:Q4, then split into individual series. The "Previous" series increases to about 11.25 in 2005:Q2, decreases to about 10.25 in 2005:Q3, and increases to about 12 in 2006:Q3. The series generally decreases to end at about 11 in 2008:Q1. The "Revised" series increases to about 11.75 in 2005:Q2, it decreases to about 10.6 in 2005:Q3, then generally decreases to about 12.9 in 2006:Q3. The series generally decreases to end at about 11.25 in 2008:Q1. Figure: NFB Output per Hour* A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008:Q2. Unit is four-quarter percent change. Both series begin at about 2.1 in 2003: Q1, increase to about 4.8 by 2003:Q3, they generally decrease to about 1.5 by 2005:Q2, then split into individual series. The "Previous" series generally decreases to about 0 in 2006:Q3, then generally increases to end at about 3.2 in 2008:Q1. The "Revised" series decreases to about 0 in 2007:Q1, it generally increases to about 3.5 in 2008:Q1, then decreases to end at about 3 in 2008:Q2. * Staff estimates. Return to text Figure: Compensation per Hour* A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008:Q2. Unit is four-quarter percent change. Both series begin at about 3 in 2003: Q1, increase to about 5 by 2003:Q4, they generally decrease to about 3.4 by mid-2004, increase to about 4.6 in 2005:Q1, and generally decrease to about 2.9 in 2006:Q3. They split into individual series and the "Previous" series generally increases to about 5.8 in 2007:Q3, then generally decreases to end at about 4 in 2008:Q1. The "Revised" series generally increases to about 4.5 in 2007:Q3, it generally decreases to about 3.7 in 2004:Q4, then increases to end at about 4.3 in 2008:Q2. * Staff estimates. Return to text Figure: Unit Labor Costs* A line chart shows two series, "Previous (through 2008:Q1)", and "Revised (through 2008:Q2)", from 2003 through 2008:Q2. Unit is four-quarter percent change. Both series begin at about 0.9 in 2003: Q1, they generally decrease to about -0.5 by 2004:Q2, generally increase to about 2.5 by 2005:Q2, and then split into individual series. The "Previous" series decreases to about 1.5 in 2005:Q4, then generally increases to about 4.2 and decreases to end at about 0.7 in 2008:Q1. The "Revised" series decreases to about 2.1 in 2005:Q3, it generally increases to about 4.2 by 2007:Q1, then decreases to about 0.3 in 2008:Q1. The series increases to end at about 1.5 in 2008:Q2. * Staff estimates. Return to text Changes in Employment (Thousands of employees; seasonally adjusted) 2007 2008 2007 Measure and sector Q4 Q1 Q2 May Average monthly change >Nonfarm payroll employment (establishment survey) June July Monthly change -47 -51 -51 -95 -99 -94 -76 3 4 4 6 8 7 11 -17 -43 -36 -21 -35 -35 -8 -31 -30 -21 -35 -32 -41 -41 -49 -38 -49 -22 -20 Residential -55 -97 -19 Ex. motor vehicles Construction -82 45 -15 Manufacturing 80 -22 Natural resources and mining 91 71 Private -39 -30 -28 -31 -22 -14 Nonresidential 1 -2 -11 -20 -7 -27 -8 Wholesale trade 9 6 -6 -6 -6 -3 -17 Retail trade 6 0 -29 -25 -24 -6 -17 Financial activities -9 -14 -7 -6 -3 -13 0 Professional and business services 26 44 -39 -24 -49 -39 -24 -7 4 -24 -29 -36 -33 -29 76 71 66 58 54 56 46 Temporary help services Nonbusiness services 1 Total government 21 Total employment (household survey) 35 15 40 52 43 25 22 -16 -81 -26 -285 -155 -72 1.3 1.0 -1.1 -.9 -.4 -.1 -.4 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 41.2 41.2 41.1 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 Memo: Aggregate hours of private production workers (percent change) 2 Average workweek (hours) 3 Manufacturing (hours) 1. Nonbusiness services comprises education and health, leisure and hospitality, and "other." Return to table 2. Establishment survey. Annual data are percent changes from Q4 to Q4. Quarterly data are percent changes from preceding quarter at an annual rate. Monthly data are percent changes from preceding month. Return to table 3. Establishment survey. Return to table Figure: Changes in Private Payroll Employment As shown, the figure is nearly identical to the corresponding figure from the Greenbook Part 2 (description following), except that after April 2008 the series gradually increases to end at about -90 in July 2008. 3-month moving average Period Thousands January 1999 221.33 February 1999 257.67 March 1999 182.67 April 1999 246.33 May 1999 203.33 June 1999 250.33 July 1999 222.67 August 1999 201.00 September 1999 184.33 October 1999 228.00 November 1999 261.00 December 1999 286.67 January 2000 241.00 February 2000 187.00 March 2000 216.33 April 2000 216.00 May 2000 145.00 June 2000 103.67 July 2000 92.33 August 2000 143.33 September 2000 146.67 October 2000 79.33 November 2000 139.67 December 2000 96.33 January 2001 87.00 February 2001 12.33 March 2001 -42.00 April 2001 -135.67 May 2001 -159.33 June 2001 -215.00 July 2001 -163.33 August 2001 -200.67 September 2001 -211.33 October 2001 -273.00 November 2001 -323.00 December 2001 -302.67 January 2002 -234.67 February 2002 -173.67 March 2002 -126.33 April 2002 -107.33 May 2002 -80.00 June 2002 -55.00 July 2002 -53.33 August 2002 -47.67 September 2002 -55.00 October 2002 13.33 November 2002 29.00 December 2002 -21.33 January 2003 -44.00 February 2003 -91.33 March 2003 -103.00 April 2003 -129.33 May 2003 -70.00 June 2003 -17.67 July 2003 -7.00 August 2003 -2.67 September 2003 62.67 October 2003 113.00 November 2003 115.00 December 2003 101.00 January 2004 103.00 February 2004 95.67 March 2004 155.00 April 2004 184.67 May 2004 277.00 June 2004 217.00 July 2004 152.33 August 2004 81.33 September 2004 101.33 October 2004 192.00 November 2004 177.67 December 2004 164.33 January 2005 88.67 February 2005 145.00 March 2005 143.00 April 2005 213.33 May 2005 199.00 June 2005 250.00 July 2005 239.00 August 2005 251.33 September 2005 200.67 October 2005 150.67 November 2005 190.67 December 2005 192.67 January 2006 240.67 February 2006 215.67 March 2006 250.67 April 2006 206.33 May 2006 129.00 June 2006 82.67 July 2006 99.33 August 2006 151.67 September 2006 158.67 October 2006 119.67 November 2006 119.00 December 2006 142.33 January 2007 155.33 February 2007 98.67 March 2007 89.33 April 2007 63.33 May 2007 108.67 June 2007 85.33 July 2007 105.67 August 2007 70.67 September 2007 62.33 October 2007 67.67 November 2007 71.67 December 2007 45.00 January 2008 -16.33 February 2008 -67.33 March 2008 -97.00 April 2008 -101.00 May 2008 -95.00 June 2008 -91.00 Figure: Aggregate Hours and Workweek of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers As shown, the figure is nearly identical to the corresponding figure from the Greenbook Part 2 (description following), except that the series end in July 2008: Aggregate hours at about 106.6, and Workweek at about 33.6. Period Aggregate hours (2002 = 100) Workweek (Hours) January 1999 100.4 34.4 February 1999 100.8 34.4 March 1999 100.5 34.3 April 1999 101.1 34.4 May 1999 101.3 34.4 June 1999 101.5 34.4 July 1999 101.7 34.4 August 1999 101.9 34.4 September 1999 102.0 34.4 October 1999 102.4 34.4 November 1999 102.6 34.4 December 1999 102.9 34.4 January 2000 103.1 34.4 February 2000 103.2 34.4 March 2000 103.2 34.3 April 2000 103.7 34.4 May 2000 103.3 34.3 June 2000 103.5 34.3 July 2000 103.7 34.3 August 2000 103.4 34.2 September 2000 103.6 34.2 October 2000 103.9 34.3 November 2000 103.7 34.2 December 2000 103.2 34.0 January 2001 103.7 34.2 February 2001 103.0 34.0 March 2001 103.3 34.1 April 2001 102.7 34.0 May 2001 102.6 34.0 June 2001 102.4 34.0 July 2001 102.3 34.0 August 2001 101.8 33.9 September 2001 101.2 33.8 October 2001 100.6 33.7 November 2001 100.5 33.8 December 2001 100.7 33.9 January 2002 100.3 33.8 February 2002 100.3 33.8 March 2002 100.5 33.9 April 2002 100.4 33.9 May 2002 100.2 33.9 June 2002 100.1 33.9 July 2002 99.6 33.8 August 2002 99.9 33.9 September 2002 99.8 33.9 October 2002 99.6 33.8 November 2002 99.6 33.8 December 2002 99.3 33.8 January 2003 99.4 33.8 February 2003 98.6 33.6 March 2003 98.9 33.8 April 2003 98.3 33.6 May 2003 98.5 33.7 June 2003 98.2 33.6 July 2003 98.2 33.6 August 2003 98.5 33.7 September 2003 98.4 33.6 October 2003 98.8 33.7 November 2003 98.8 33.7 December 2003 98.6 33.6 January 2004 99.3 33.8 February 2004 99.3 33.8 March 2004 99.3 33.7 April 2004 99.6 33.7 May 2004 100.2 33.8 99.8 33.6 July 2004 100.2 33.7 August 2004 100.4 33.7 September 2004 100.9 33.8 October 2004 101.0 33.7 November 2004 100.7 33.6 December 2004 101.5 33.8 January 2005 101.3 33.7 February 2005 101.9 33.8 June 2004 March 2005 101.7 33.7 April 2005 102.4 33.8 May 2005 102.2 33.7 June 2005 102.6 33.7 July 2005 102.8 33.7 August 2005 103.0 33.7 September 2005 103.5 33.8 October 2005 103.6 33.8 November 2005 104.0 33.8 December 2005 104.2 33.8 January 2006 104.8 33.9 February 2006 104.8 33.8 March 2006 105.1 33.8 April 2006 105.6 33.9 May 2006 105.4 33.8 June 2006 105.8 33.9 July 2006 106.0 33.9 August 2006 106.2 33.9 September 2006 105.9 33.8 October 2006 106.3 33.9 November 2006 106.2 33.8 December 2006 106.7 33.9 January 2007 106.5 33.8 February 2007 106.2 33.7 March 2007 107.1 33.9 April 2007 106.8 33.8 May 2007 107.1 33.8 June 2007 107.6 33.9 July 2007 107.4 33.8 August 2007 107.4 33.8 September 2007 107.6 33.8 October 2007 107.7 33.8 November 2007 107.7 33.8 December 2007 107.8 33.8 January 2008 107.4 33.7 February 2008 107.3 33.7 March 2008 107.6 33.8 April 2008 107.5 33.8 May 2008 107.1 33.7 June 2008 107.0 33.7 Selected Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates (Percent; based on seasonally adjusted data) 2008 Group Q1 Civilian unemployment rate (16 years and older) Teenagers 2008 2007 Q2 May June July 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.7 15.7 16.8 17.4 18.7 18.1 20.3 20-24 years old 8.2 9.0 9.8 10.4 10.1 10.2 Men, 25 years and older 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 Women, 25 years and older 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 Full-time workers Labor force participation rate Teenagers 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.7 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 41.3 40.3 41.4 42.6 40.5 40.8 20-24 years old 74.4 73.9 74.6 75.0 74.8 74.9 Men, 25 years and older 75.6 75.5 75.2 75.2 75.3 75.6 Women, 25 years and older 59.7 59.9 60.0 60.0 60.1 59.9 Figure: Unemployment Rate A line chart shows a single series, from 1988:Q3 through July 2008. Unit is percent. The series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1988:Q3, it generally increases to about 7.8 by 1992:Q2, generally decreases to about 3.7 by 2000, and generally increases to about 6.4 by mid-2003. The series generally decreases to about 4.5 in 2007, and generally increases to end at about 5.7 in July 2008. Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate A line chart shows a single series from 1988:Q3 through July 2008. Unit is percent. The series begins at about 66.1 in 1988:Q3, it generally increases to about 66.8 in 1990:Q1, then generally decreases to about 66.0 in 1991:Q3, and generally increases to about 67.3 by 2000. The series generally decreases to about 65.8 in 2005:Q1, it generally increases to about 66.4 in 2007:Q1, and decreases to end at about 66.1 in July 2008. Summary of Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (Seasonally Adjusted) Figure: Purchasing Managers Index A line chart shows a single series, from 2002 through 2009. Data is seasonally adjusted; unit is an index. The series begins at about 47.5 in 2002:Q1, it fluctuates between about 46 and 54 through 2003:Q3, increases to about 61 in 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 50 in July 2008. Note. The PMI is an index that equally weights new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. Figure: New Orders and New Export Orders A line chart shows two series, "New orders", and "New export orders", from 2002 through 2009. Unit is diffusion index. The "New orders" series begins at about 55 in 2002:Q1, increases to about 64 shortly after, generally decreases to about 47.5 in 2003:Q1, and generally increases to about 71 in 2003:Q1. The series generally decreases and ends at about 45 in July 2008. The "New export orders" series begins at about 50 in 2002:Q1, generally increases to about 62 in 2004:Q1, fluctuates between about 52 and 60 through mid-2008 and ends at about 54 in July 2008. Note. New export orders are not seasonally adjusted. Figure: Inventories and Customer Inventories A line chart shows two series, "Inventories", and "Customer inventories", from 2002 through 2009. Unit is diffusion index. The "Inventories" series begins at about 39 in 2002:Q1, it generally increases to about 52.5 by 2005, generally decreases to about 41 in 2007 and ends at about 45 in July 2008. The "Customer inventories" series begins at about 43 in 2002:Q1, it generally increases to about 46 by 2002:Q4, then generally decreases to about 37.5 in 2004:Q2, and generally increases to about 55 by mid-2008. The series decreases and ends at about 47 in July 2008. Note. Customer inventories are not seasonally adjusted. Figure: Employment and Production A line chart shows two series, "Production", and "Employment" from 2002 through 2009. Unit is diffusion index. The "Production" series begins at about 51 in 2002:Q1, increases to about 60.5 by mid-2002, generally decreases to about 47.5 in 2003:Q1, and generally increases to about 70 in 2003:Q4. The series generally decreases and ends at about 52.5 in July 2008. The "Employment" series begins at about 41 in 2002:Q1, it fluctuates between about 41 and 49 through 2003:Q3, and increases to about 60 by 2004:Q2. The series generally decreases to about 44 by mid-2008, and increases to end at about 52 in July 2008. Figure: Supplier Deliveries and Imports A line chart shows two series, "Supplier Deliveries", and "Imports", from 2002 through 2009. Unit is diffusion index. The "Supplier deliveries" series begins at about 51 in 2002:Q1, increases to about 57 in 2002:Q3, decreases to about 50 in 2003:Q2, and increases to about 68 in 2004:Q2. The series generally decreases to about 50 in 2005:Q3, increases to about 62 in 2005:Q4, and generally decreases to about 50 by mid-2007. It then generally increases and ends at about 55 in July 2008. The "Imports" series begins at about 50 in 2002:Q1, it generally increases to about 62.5 in 2003:Q3, and fluctuates between about 52.5 and 62.5 through 2007:Q1. The series generally decreases and ends at about 46 in July 2008. Note. Imports are not seasonally adjusted. Figure: Prices Paid A line chart shows a single series, from 2002 through 2009. Unit is diffusion index. The series begins at about 41 in 2002:Q1, it generally increases to about 68 by 2002:Q3 and fluctuates between about 49 and 89 through 2007:Q3. It then generally increases and ends at about 90 in July 2008. Note. Not seasonally adjusted. New Construction Put in Place 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 p r Apr. May p 2008 May r June p June p Percent change 1 Billions of current dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate Total May r 1,083.7 Private Residential 2 Single-family Multifamily Nonresidential 2 1,084.2 1,085.2 1,085.2 1,085.7 1,081.9 .0 -.4 789.3 782.7 783.7 784.2 783.9 780.6 .0 -.4 396.2 378.4 383.5 378.9 379.1 372.5 -1.1 -1.8 220.3 197.1 203.6 197.2 197.5 190.3 -3.0 -3.7 43.8 44.4 44.3 44.2 44.5 44.3 .6 -.4 393.1 404.3 400.2 405.3 404.8 408.1 1.1 .8 Office 57.6 57.6 57.7 59.1 57.6 57.6 -.1 .0 Commercial 86.9 86.2 87.5 85.6 85.5 85.7 -2.2 .2 Manufacturing 49.8 54.5 52.0 53.6 55.4 56.2 6.6 1.5 Communication 27.3 26.6 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.5 1.7 -1.6 Power 53.2 56.4 54.5 56.9 56.2 58.5 3.1 4.1 3 115.7 120.7 119.8 120.9 121.0 121.5 1.0 .4 Other Public 294.4 State and local Federal 301.5 301.5 301.1 301.8 301.3 .1 -.2 272.2 278.8 278.9 278.4 279.3 278.3 .2 -.4 22.3 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.4 23.0 -.8 2.4 1. Percent changes calculated from more digits than shown in table. Return to table 2. Contains components not shown separately. Return to table 3. Includes religious, educational, lodging, amusement and recreation, transportation, and health care. Return to table r Revised. Return to table p Preliminary. Return to table New Construction Put in Place (Seasonally adjusted annual rate) Figure: Major Components A line chart shows three series, "Residential", "Nonresidential", and "Public", from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is billions of dollars, ratio scale. The "Residential" series begins at about $350 billion in 2000, generally increases to about 690 in 2006, and decreases to end at about 375 in June 2008. The "Nonresidential" series begins at about 250 in 2000, generally increases to about 290 in late 2000, generally decreases to about 230 in 2002, and generally increases to end at about 405 in June 2008. The "Public" series begins at about 160 in 2000, and generally increases to end at about 300 by June 2008. Figure: Selected Nonresidential Components A line chart shows three series, "Commercial", "Office", and "Manufacturing", from 2000 through June 2008. Unit is billions of dollars, ratio scale. The "Commercial" series begins at about 61 in 2000, generally decreases to about 55 in late 2002, and generally increases to end at about 85 in June 2008. The "Office" series begins at about 43in 2000, increases to about 58 in late 2000, generally decreases to about 30 in 2003, and generally increases to end at about 58 in June 2008. The "Manufacturing" series begins at about 34 in 2000, generally increases to about 43 in late 2000, generally decreases to about 20 in 2002, and generally increases to end at about 56 in June 2008. Change in Employment Cost Index of Hourly Compensation for Private-Industry Workers 2007 2008 Measure June Sept. Dec. Mar. June Quarterly change (compound annual rate) 1 Total hourly compensation 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.0 2.3 Wages and salaries 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 Benefits 4.3 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 12-month change Total hourly compensation Wages and salaries 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 Benefits 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.2 2.6 1. Seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Return to table Change in ECI Benefits (confidential) (Private-industry workers; 12-month change) Figure: Health Insurance A line chart shows a single series, from 1990 through June 2008. Data is for private-industry workers; 12-month change; unit is percent. The series begins at about 12.5 percent in 1990, generally decreases to about 0 by 1995, generally increases to about 11.5 in 2002, and generally decreases to end at about 4 in June 2008. Figure: Nonproduction Bonuses A line chart shows a single series from 1990 through June 2007. Data is for private-industry workers; 12-month change; unit is percent. The series begins at about 14 in 1990, generally decreases to about 2 in 1991, then generally fluctuates between about -9 and 12 through 2007 and ends at about 5 in June 2008. Figure: Retirement and Savings A line chart shows a single series, from 1990 through June 2008. Data is for private-industry workers; 12-month change; unit is percent. The series begins at about 5.1 percent in 1990, decreases to about 2.5 in 1991, generally increases to about 11 in 1994, and generally decreases to about 2 in 1999 and 2002. It increases to about 26 in 2004, generally decreases to about -5 in 2007, and generally increases to end at about 5 in June 2008. Figure: Workers' Compensation Insurance A line chart shows a single series, from 1990 through June 2008. Data is for private-industry workers; 12-month change; unit is percent. The series begins at about 12 percent in 1990, generally decreases to about -4 in 1998, generally increases to about 13 in 2003, and generally decreases to end at about -1 in June 2008. Hourly Compensation and Unit Labor Costs (Percent change from preceding period at compound annual rate; based on seasonally adjusted data) Category 2007 2008 2006:Q2 to 2007:Q2 2007:Q2 to 2008:Q2 4.3 4.4 3.3 5.3 5.5 3.7 3.7 1.5 -2.5 4.5 2.6 1.4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Compensation per hour* Nonfarm business Unit labor costs* Nonfarm business * All values are staff estimates. Return to table Figure: Compensation per Hour A line chart shows two series, "Productivity and costs*", and "ECI", from 1996 through 2008:Q2. Data is percent change from year-earlier period unit is percent. The "Productivity and costs" series begins at about 3.1 in 1996, it generally increases to about 6.9 in 1998, decreases to about 3.8 in 1999, and increases to about 8 in 2000. The series decreases to about 3.5 in 2001, then fluctuates between about 2.9 and 5.3 through 2007, and ends at about 4.5 in 2008:Q2. The "ECI" series begins at about 2.9 in 1996, generally increases to about 3.9 in 1998, decreases to about 3 in 1999, generally increases to about 4.8 in 2000, and then generally decreases to end at about 3.2 in 2008:Q2. * Values starting 2005q1 are staff estimates. Return to text Figure: Unit Labor Costs A line chart shows a single series, from 1996 through 2008:Q2. Data is percent change from year-earlier period; unit is percent. The series begins at about 1 in 1996, generally increases to about 4.1 in 1998, decreases to about 1.3 in 1999, generally increases to about 5 in 2000, and generally decreases to about -1.7 in 2002. The series generally increases to about 4.2 in 2007, generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2008 and ends at about 1.5 in 2008:Q2. * Values starting 2005q1 are staff estimates. Figure: Average Hourly Earnings A line chart shows a single series, from 1996 through July 2008. Data is percent change from year-earlier period; unit is percent. The series begins at about 3.2 percent in 1996, generally increases to about 4.4 percent in 1998, generally decreases to about 3.6 in 1999, and generally increases to about 4.25 in 2001. The series generally decreases to about 1.7 in 2004, generally increases to about 4.25 in 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 3.4 in July 2008. Commercial Bank Credit (Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted) Type of credit 2007 Total H2 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 June 2008 July 2008e Level1 July 2008e 10.6 11.3 6.2 3.3 -.3 3.0 9,025 11.4 11.5 9.5 4.5 -3.3 .9 6,818 Commercial and industrial 19.6 26.1 15.6 11.9 5.7 4.6 1,506 Commercial real estate 10.1 10.1 9.8 10.4 11.5 -8.9 1,651 5.8 -1.1 3.4 3.3 -16.1 -5.8 1,842 Loans2 Total To businesses To households Residential real estate Revolving home equity 5.7 6.5 11.5 16.1 14.7 11.7 519 Other 5.9 -3.6 .7 -1.2 -27.4 -12.5 1,323 Consumer 7.9 10.8 8.8 6.0 6.8 10.3 836 7.2 9.4 8.7 6.9 6.6 5.3 1,250 16.7 19.9 12.2 -14.8 -25.9 17.1 984 8.1 10.7 -3.7 -.1 9.3 9.3 2,206 -5.7 -4.3 -10.8 8.3 26.0 12.0 1,144 27.5 28.9 3.8 -8.6 -7.9 6.4 1,062 Originated 3 Other 4 Securities Total Treasury and agency Other 5 Note. Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FAS 115), the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46), the initial adoption of fair value accounting (FAS 159), and the effects of sizable thrift-to-bank and bank-to-thrift structure activity in October 2006, March 2007, and October 2007. Data also account for breaks caused by reclassifications. 1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Return to table 2. Excludes interbank loans. Return to table 3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. Return to table 4. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. Return to table 5. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or agency securities. Return to table e Estimated. Return to table Selected Financial Market Quotations (One-day quotes in percent except as noted) 2007 2008 Change to July 31 from selected dates (percentage points) Instrument Aug. 6 Jan. 31 June 24 July 31 2007 Aug. 6 2008 Jan. 31 2008 June 24 Short-term FOMC intended federal funds rate 5.25 3.00 2.00 2.00 -3.25 -1.00 .00 3-month 4.74 1.92 1.80 1.65 -3.09 -.27 -.15 6-month 4.72 2.02 2.20 1.84 -2.88 -.18 -.36 Treasury bills1 Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates) 2 1-month 5.26 2.95 2.36 2.36 -2.90 -.59 .00 3-month 5.29 2.98 2.78 2.71 -2.58 -.27 -.07 3-month 5.34 3.01 2.80 2.77 -2.57 -.24 -.03 6-month 5.27 2.93 3.17 3.11 -2.16 .18 -.06 1-month 5.33 3.15 2.70 2.65 -2.68 -.50 -.05 3-month 5.35 3.15 3.00 3.00 -2.35 -.15 .00 8.25 6.00 5.00 5.00 -3.25 -1.00 .00 2-year 4.49 2.16 2.80 2.48 -2.01 .32 -.32 5-year 4.52 2.83 3.55 3.26 -1.26 .43 -.29 10-year 4.82 3.86 4.29 4.16 -.66 .30 -.13 5-year 2.43 .68 1.10 1.21 -1.22 .53 .11 10-year 2.48 1.35 1.76 1.75 -.73 .40 -.01 Large negotiable CDs 1 Eurodollar deposits 3 Bank prime rate Intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury 4 U.S. Treasury indexed notes 5 Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer) 6 4.51 4.39 4.76 4.74 .23 .35 -.02 5.44 4.23 4.84 4.67 -.77 .44 -.17 5.34 4.28 4.98 4.75 -.59 .47 -.23 Private instruments 10-year swap 10-year FNMA 7 8 6.12 5.62 6.54 6.66 .54 1.04 .12 10-year BBB 8 6.57 6.39 7.00 7.15 .58 .76 .15 10-year high yield8 9.21 9.80 10.13 10.53 1.32 .73 .40 10-year AA Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) 30-year fixed 6.59 5.68 6.45 6.52 -.07 .84 .07 1-year adjustable 5.65 5.05 5.27 5.27 -.38 .22 .00 Record high 2008 Change to July 31 from selected dates (percent) Stock exchange index Level Date Jan. 31 June 24 July 31 Record high 2008 Jan. 31 2008 June 24 Dow Jones Industrial 14,165 10-9-07 12,650 11,807 11,378 -19.67 -10.06 -3.64 S&P 500 Composite 1,565 10-9-07 1,379 1,314 1,267 -19.03 -8.06 -3.57 Nasdaq 5,049 3-10-00 2,390 2,368 2,326 -53.94 -2.69 -1.80 Russell 2000 856 7-13-07 713 708 715 -16.51 .17 .93 Wilshire 5000 15,807 10-9-07 13,897 13,421 12,947 -18.09 -6.83 -3.54 1. Secondary market. Return to table 2. Financial commercial paper. Return to table 3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. Return to table 4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Return to table 5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. Return to table 6. Most recent Thursday quote. Return to table 7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. Return to table 8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. Return to table NOTES: August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting. January 31, 2008, is the day after the January 2008 FOMC meeting. June 24, 2008, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement. † Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text Last update: March 7, 2014
@FedFRASER