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Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I FOMC August 12, 1977 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the staff Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System August 12, 1977 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS I - FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) M-1 surged to an 18.3 per cent annual rate of expansion in July, with only a minor part of this increase apparently attributable to special factors such as early disbursements of social security checks and the New York blackout. More recently, growth in M-1 has slowed considerably, but for the July-August period is still estimated at an 11.7 per cent annual rate, roughly 4 percentage points above the upper end of the Committee's range. Mainly reflecting the strength of M-1, growth in M-2 over July and August is now estimated at an 11.7 per cent annual rate, about 1 percentage point above the upper end of its range. Savings account balances increased at a moderate rate in July after having declined somewhat in June, while growth in the time deposit component of M-2 was maintained in July at the strong June pace. Deposit flows into thrift institutions have also been quite strong in recent weeks. Reflecting the rapid growth in demand and time deposits, nonborrowed reserves are expected to expand at about a 9.2 per cent annual rate over July and August. Growth in Monetary Aggregates Over July-August period (SAAR in per cent) Ranges Latest Estimates M-1 3½ to 7½ 11.7 M-2 6½ to 10½ 11.7 Memorandum: Federal funds rate (per cent per annum) Avg. for statement week ending July 20 5.35 27 5.45 Aug. 3 5.80 10 5.70 -2(2) In the last week of July, as incoming data provided confirmation of the unexpectedly strong expansion in the monetary aggregates, the Account Management began raising its Federal funds rate objective from the prevailing level of around 5-3/8 per cent. By the end of the August 3 statement week, the Desk was aiming at a Federal funds rate of 5¾ per cent, the upper limit of the intermeeting range specified in the Committee's directive. On August 4, Chairman Burns recommended raising the upper limit of the range for the funds rate to 6 per cent, in order to provide the Desk with some additional leeway for operations, while continuing to take into account the current Treasury financing and financial market developments. He further recommended that the additional leewaybe used very gradually, and only in the event that the aggregates continued to register values far beyond the Committee's objectives. This recommendation was approved by the Committee. The Account Management continued to aim for a funds rate of around 5¾ per cent until late in the August 10 statement week, but more recently raised the funds rate objective to 6 per cent, since incoming data continued to indicate strong growth of the aggregates. (3) Commercial bank credit expanded at an annual rate of about 9¼ per cent in July. With deposit expansion rapid during the month, banks were able to finance loans and investments while letting outstanding negotiable CD's and nondeposit sources of funds contract. Total loans of banks increased substantially, paced by strong gains in real estate and consumer installment loans. Business loans also posted a further advance during the month, but the increase was significantly below the average monthly gain of the second quarter. (4) Aggregate credit demands have remained relatively strong in recent weeks. Households have apparently continued to raise a sub- stantial volume of funds in the mortgage and consumer credit markets, and the U.S. Treasury has once again been raising sizable amounts of new money, following its second-quarter paydown of debt. Partly offsetting these areas of strength, issuance of long-term bonds by State and local governments has declined more than seasonally from the record June pace. In addition, total business credit demands have moderated, as the slowing in growth of business loans at banks in July was accompanied by a sizable reduction in the commercial paper indebtedness of nonfinancial corporations. Also, while issuance of publicly-offered corporate bonds picked up a bit in July, the volume coming to market in August has declined seasonally. (5) In response to the tightening of the Federal fund rate and the strengthening in the monetary aggregates, short-term interest rates have increased since the July FOMC meeting by around 15 to 45 basis points. Increases in yields on long-term bonds have been decidedly more moderate, with rates on Treasury bonds increasing by around 10 basis points, while yields on corporate and municipal securities have changed little. (6) Since the July meeting, the U.S. Treasury has raised about $1 billion in domestic credit markets through a sale of 2-year notes and another $3 billion in conjunction with its mid-August refunding.1/ In the refunding the Treasury auctioned $3.0 billion of a 3-year note at an average yield of 6.84 per cent, $2.25 billion of a 7-year note at an average yield of 7.26 per cent, and $1.0 billion of a reopened 29 -year bond at an average yield of 7.72 per cent. Dealers have distributed essentially all of the $2.7 billion of issues they were awarded in the auctions, however, and now have deep net short positions in coupon issues with less than 10 years to mature and very modest long positions in issues with over 10 years maturities. (7) The table on the following page shows (in terms of percentage annual rates of change) related monetary and financial flows over various time periods. 1/ In addition, the Treasury obtained $1½ billion of new cash through add-on sales of these issues to foreigners. 1975 & 1976 Average Past Twelve Months July '77 over July '76 Past Six Months July '77 over Jan. '77 Past Three Months July '77 over Apr. '77 Past Month July '77 over June '77 Nonborrowed reserves 1.4 4.0 1.9 5.0 15.4 Total reserves 0.4 4.5 3.4 7.9 17.3 Monetary Base 6.6 7.7 7.4 9.0 14.3 5.2 7.1 8.3 7.9 18.3 M2 (M plus time deposits acommercial banks other than large CD's) 10.4 11.1 10.0 9.9 16.8 M 3 (M plus deposits at thrift institutions) 13.0 12.7 10.9 11.1 16.0 (M2 plus CD's) 7.3 9.3 9.2 9.8 13.8 M 5 (M3 plus CD's) 10.7 11.5 10.3 11.0 14.3 Month-end basis 6.7 10.6 11.5 9.6 9.3 Average of Wednesdays 6.2 10.5 9.8 8.7 7.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 -1.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 Concepts of Money M1 M (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ Bank Credit Loans and investments of all commercial banks 2/ Short-term Market Paper (Monthly average change in billions) Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. Prospective developments (8) Shown below for Committee consideration are alternative specifications for the monetary aggregates and the Federal funds rate covering the period between now and the next Committee meeting. (More detailed data on the aggregates for a longer time span are shown in the tables on pp. 7 and 8). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Ranges for Aug.-Sept. M-1 2½-6½ M-2 5-9 Federal funds rate (intermeeting period) 5¼-5¾ 2-6 4½-8½ 5¾-6¼ 1½-5½ 4-8 6¼-6¾ (9) A marked slowing in growth of M-1 is anticipated for the August-September period, as the extremely rapid expansion in M-1 in July probably provided the public with enough cash to accommodate the bulk of third-quarter transactions needs. Under alternative B, M-1 is expected to expand in a 2-6 per cent, annual rate, range. Such an expansion would produce an 8¾ per cent annual rate of growth from the second to the third quarter, as compared with a 12 per cent annual rate of growth in nominal GNP projected for that period. (10) Growth in M-2 over the August-September period under alternative B is expected to be in a 4 -8 per cent annual rate range. The time and savings deposit component of M-2 is likely to expand at about an 8¼ per cent annual rate over the period, well below the JuneJuly average. The higher level of interest rates on short- and Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates M1 M2 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 July August September 326.8 328.2 329.3 326.8 328.2 329.1 326.8 328.2 328.8 783.6 787.9 792.5 783.6 787.9 792.0 783.6 787.9 791.6 1977 QII QIII QIV 321.0 328.1 332.3 321.0 328.0 331.3 321.0 327.9 330.8 768.3 788.0 804.3 768.3 787.8 802.5 768.3 787.7 801.2 1978 QI QII 335.3 337.8 334.1 337.8 333.7 337.8 818.0 830.2 816.4 830.4 815.6 830.6 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 August September 5.1 4.0 5.1 3.3 5.1 2.2 6.6 7.0 6.6 6.2 6.6 5.6 Quarterly Average: 1977 QIII QIV 8.8 5.1 8.7 4.0 8.6 3.5 10.3 8.3 10.2 7.5 10.1 6.9 3.6 3.0 3.4 4.4 3.5 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.4 QII '77-QIV '77 7.0 6.4 6.1 9.4 8.9 8.6 QIV '77-QII '78 3.3 3.9 4.2 6.4 7.0 7.3 Annual: QII '77-QII '78 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.1 8.1 8.1 1978 QI QII Semi-Annual: FOMC Range: 4-6k 7-9 Alternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates (cont'd) Bank Credit M3 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 1977 July August September 1316.7 1327.9 1338.0 1316.7 1327.9 1337.5 1316.7 1327.9 1336.9 832.2 838.5 844.8 832.2 838.5 844.2 832.2 838.5 843.7 1977 QII QIII QIV 1289.9 1327.5 1359.2 1289.9 1327.4 1356.6 1289.9 1327.2 1354.6 820.5 838.5 857.0 820.5 838.3 856.4 820.5 838.1 855.6 1978 QI QII 1384.5 1407.0 1381.4 1406.0 1380.0 1405.9 875.2 892.3 874.4 891.9 873.8 891.7 Growth Rates Monthly: 1977 August September 10.2 9.1 10.2 8.7 10.2 8.1 9.1 9.0 9.1 8.2 9.1 7.4 Quarterly Average: 1977 QIII QIV 11.7 9.6 11.6 8.8 11.6 8.3 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.4 QI QII 7.4 6.5 7.3 7.1 7.5 7.5 8.5 7.8 8.4 8.0 8.5 8.2 Semi-annual: QII '77-QIV '77 QIV '77-QII '78 10.7 7.0 10.3 7.3 10.0 7.6 8.9 8.2 8.8 8.3 8.6 8.4 Annual: QII '77-QII '78 9.1 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.7 1978 FOMC Range: 8½-11 7-10 -9intermediate-term market instruments that has recently emerged is expected to divert funds away from savings and shorter-maturity time deposits. (11) As of this writing, credit markets probably have not fully adjusted to a 6 per cent Federal funds rate, the current Desk objective. Thus, some further rise in interest rates, particularly short rates, could develop over the next week or so. Assuming the funds rate remains around 6 per cent over the whole intermeeting period, and with the Treasury bill supply expected to be relatively limited over the near-term, the 3-month bill rate may be in the neighborhood of 5-5/8 per cent. The Treasury is not expected to raise new cash through bill offerings until the fourth quarter. (12) Longer-term markets are in a strong technical position. Dealers have a net short position in Treasury coupon issues maturing in more than a year of around $1 billion. And a reduced volume of corporate and municipal bonds is expected to be marketed over the balance of the current quarter, though the volume of municipal securities will probably still be substantial. Thus, relatively little upward adjust- ment in long-term rates may be expected over the next few weeks, assuming a 6 per cent Federal funds rate. (13) The staff expects that the Federal funds rate would have to rise above 6 per cent over the next few months, however, if growth in M-1 were to be held to the mid-point of the 4 to 6½ per cent longer-run range (pertaining to the QII '77-QII '78 period) adopted by the Committee -10at its July meeting. A substantial cut-back in M-1 growth to about a 4 per cent annual rate over the next three quarters would be required. The necessary curtailment in the supply of reserves would probably lead to a Federal funds rate of around 6-7/8 per cent by early next year. This is a higher rate than estimated at the time of the last meeting, and takes account of the apparent strengthening of money demand relative to GNP that has developed in the spring and early summer. (14) As market interest rates rise, inflows of time and savings deposits, other than large CD's, would probably slow down, assuming no adjustment in Regulation Q ceiling rates. With bank credit demands expected to remain generally strong through mid-1978--given the staff's GNP forecast--banks are likely to bid actively for CD's and nondeposit funds. Thrift institutions, too, would probably begin to rely more heavily on borrowed funds, or sales of liquid assets, to meet commitments. These financial adjustments, as they develop, may entail a 3-month bill rate in the 7 per cent area in the first half of 1978, a commercial paper rate in the order of 7¼ per cent, and minor upward adjustments in long-term rates, including a rise in the highgrade corporate bond rate to around 8 per cent and primary mortgage market rates to a little over 9 per cent. (15) Alternative C involves a rise in the Federal funds rate to the mid-point of a 6¼-6¾ per cent range between now and the next Committee meeting. Such an approach would add to restraint on money growth in the weeks ahead--with M-1 expected to expand in a -11And 1½-5½ per cent annual rate range over the August-September period. only a very minor further rise in the funds rate might be required in achieving the Committee's current longer-run ranges for the monetary aggregates. (16) The further rise in the funds rate of ½ percentage point over the next few weeks contemplated under alternative C would likely lead to increases of comparable magnitude in short-term rates generally. Upward rate pressures would probably also be communicated to the intermediate-term market, where the Treasury is expected to raise $2-$3 billion of new cash through routine offerings of 2- and 4-year notes during the next few weeks, though they may be moderate in view of the market's strong technical position. Longer-term rates, too, might increase somewhat, but any such increases might not be long sustained if the market came to believe that the process of tightening was near an end or that the process would work to restrain inflation. (17) The easing in the money market envisioned under alternative A may stimulate rather substantial downward adjustments over the short-run in intermediate- and longer-term interest rates, particularly in the Treasury securities market where dealers may be expected to make efforts to cover short positions. The staff would not expect that downward rate movements could be sustained, however. Given the projected strength in nominal GNP and money demand between now and mid-1978, interest rates would probably once again begin rising by early fall--with the funds rate under this alternative peaking at around 7¼ per cent in the second quarter of 1978. -12Directive language (18) Given below are alternatives for the operational paragraphs of the directive. The first formulation, like the directive adopted at the last meeting, places main emphasis on near-term rates of growth in monetary aggregates; it shows--in strike-through form--the specifications adopted at the last meeting. on money market conditions. The second formulation places main emphasis As suggested below, the particular language needed in the opening lines of the money market formulation would depend on the specific conditions sought; the three alternatives shown--calling, respectively, for somewhat easier, prevailing, and somewhat firmer money market conditions--are intended to be associated with the specifications discussed in the preceding section under alternatives A, B, and C. "Monetary Aggregates" Formulation The Committee seeks to encourage near-term rates of growth in M-1 and M-2 on a path believed to be reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for monetary aggregates cited in paragraph. Specifically, at present, it the preceding expects the annual growth rates over the [DEL: July-August] AUGUST-SEPTEMBER period to be within the ranges of [DEL: 3-l/2 to 7-1/2] ____ [6-1/2-to-10-1/2] ____ to ____ to ____ per cent for M-1 and per cent for M-2. In the judg- ment of the Committee such growth rates are likely to be associated with a weekly-average Federal funds rate of about [DEL: 5-3/8] ____ per cent. If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, -13- it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period will deviate significantly from the midpoints of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of [DEL: 5-1/4 to 6] ____ ____ to per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. "Money Market" Formulation At this time, the Committee seeks to maintain about the prevailing money market conditions (or to achieve somewhat easier or somewhat firmer money market conditions) during the period immediately ahead, provided that monetary aggregates appear to be growing at approximately the rates currently expected, which are believed to be on a path reasonably consistent with the longer-run ranges for mone- tary aggregates cited in the preceding paragraph. Specifically, the Committee seeks to maintain the weekly-average Federal funds rate at about ____ per cent, so long as M-1 and M-2 appear to be grow- ing over the August-September period at annual rates within ranges of ____ to ____ per cent and ____ to ____ per cent, respectively. If, giving approximately equal weight to M-1 and M-2, it appears that growth rates over the 2-month period are approaching or moving beyond -14the limits of the indicated ranges, the operational objective for the weekly-average Federal funds rate shall be modified in an orderly fashion within a range of ____to ____ per cent. If it appears during the period before the next meeting that the operating constraints specified above are proving to be significantly inconsistent, the Manager is promptly to notify the Chairman who will then decide whether the situation calls for supplementary instructions from the Committee. Appendix I Projected Federal Funds Rate 1977 1978 Alt. A Alt. B QIII 5-5/8 5-7/8 QIV 6-1/8 QI 6-7/8 QII 6 6-7/8 6-7/8 Alt. C 6-1/8 61 Appendix II Expansion in Reserves Over the Period From QII 1977 to QIV 1977 Consistent with Proposed Alternatives (seasonally adjusted annual rates) Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Nonbc)rrowed Reserves 3.3 1.8 1.1 TotalL Reserves 6.3 5.9 5.7 Monet:ary Base 8.3 8.2 8.1 On average thus far in the third quarter, nonborrowed reserves have expanded at a 6.4 per cent annual rate, total reserves at a 10.2 per cent rate, and the monetary base at a 9.6 per cent rate. These rates are well above the growth rates for the second half of 1977 shown in the table above that are thought to be consistent with the alternatives presented to the Committee. Thus, a considerable slowing in growth of reserves will be needed over the months ahead. Appendix III Implied Velocity Growth Rates .l (GNP/MI) 1977 1978 Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C III 3.0 3.0 3.0 IV 3.0 3.1 3.3 I 2.4 3.7 4.0 II 7.3 5.8 5.4 V2 (GNP/M2 ) 1977 1978 III 1.2 IV 4.4 4.9 I 4.4 4.2 4.0 II 4.3 3.4 2.9 8/12/77 CHART 1 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 780 770 760 750 1976 A M J 1977 J A CHART 2 8/12/77 MONETARY AGGREGATES BANK CREDIT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF MONTH 900 860 820 780 RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 36 WEEKLY AVERAGES TOTAL 35 34 NONBORROWED I Ii I I 1976 t I I I L Fl i I I 1977 I I I I CHART 3 8/12/77 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES EY MARKET COND 'ITIONS PER CENT - INTEREST RATES Short-term PER CENT I 8 INTEREST RATES Long-term 6 RATE -5 FEDERAL FUND; S RATE 4- RESERVES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS w---- 1976 1977 1976 1977 1976 1977 PER CENT Table 1 CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC MONETARY AGGREGATES AUG. 12, 1977 ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Money Supply Narrow Broad (Ml) (M2) Period 1 Total U.S. Govt. Deposits / 2 3 t Total 4 Time & Savings Deposits Other Than s Tot Savings 56 CD's 7 1 8 Nondeposit Sorces of Funds o/ 9 Member SGa epo sits 1 10 MONTHLY LEVELS-tBIL 1977--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. 320.7 321.9 326.8 (328.2) 767.6 10.6 10.1 772.8 509.e 514.8 519.5 (523.3) 44.9.S 450.9 456.7 (459.7) i t1.7 Z12.3 213.68 ( 16.11 e.4.2 £3b.6 .. .. > 6:.9 62.b (63.6) 783.6 (787.9) 11.8 1 10.7) 7.2 3.8 8.2 13.4 8.5 8.8 -26.7 0.0 -39.3 15.7 9.5 9.5 16.1 11.9 9.4 27.5 15.4 4.0 10.0 8.7 14.2 1.> -7.0 10.9 6.5 4.2 8.4 12.5 9.9 9.2 31.0 -4b.0 -18.2 12.2 12.5 8.3 17.1 14.0 9.8 Z4. 21.9 7.9 10.8 7.1 11.6 -1L .9 1.9 8.3 13.2 11.0 8.6) 7.o 4.5 10.7 15.4 7.9) -2.3 6.5 12.9) 10.3 22.5 21.6 3.0) 13.6 10.8 -L0.7 15.3? 9.9) 11.71 10.7) 12.3) 242.9 (43.5) 55.9 55.9 ( 2.1 3.7 2.8 3.6) SANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--4TH OTR. 1977--15T QTR. 2ND QTR. QUARTERLY-AV 1976--4TH QTR. 1977--1ST QTR. 2ND QTR. -1.9 MONTHLY 1977--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. JULY-AUG. 0.7 4.5 18.3 5.1) 4.7 6.1 16.8 6.6) -22.2 -56.6 202.0 (-111.9) 11.7) 11.7) ( 35.6) -2.b) WEEKLY LEVELS-SBIL 1977-JULY AUG. NOTE: 1/ 2/ 6 13 20 7 325.7 324.3 329.0 327.9 760.1 10.8 785.9 706.1 10.7 11.8 12.8 518.4 519.2 519.3 520.5 454.4 456.4 456.9 450.2 212.4 213.e 213.6 214.5 242.0 243.2 243.1 243.7 64.0 62.8 62.4 62.3 53.0 780.7 54.4 59.< 5b.0 1.b z.6 3.b 3.5 3 326.6 787.1 12.6 521.3 458.5 215.2 243.2 6z.6 54.0 2.8 P - PRELIMINARY DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. INCLUDES TREASURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FOkM OF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SECURITIES SOLD UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.) CLASS II-FOMC TABLE 2 BANK RESERVES ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES Period Total AUG. 12, 1977 REQUIRED RESERVES Reserves Nonborrowed Reserves Monetary Base Total Required Private Demand Total Time Deposits Gov't. and Interbank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS 1977--MAY JUNE JULY AUG. 34,723 34,862 35,364 (35,640) 34,517 34,599 35,042 (35,129) 121,376 12,027 123,477 (124,303) 34,515 34,714 35,072 135,4421 20,706 20,601 20,998 (21,188) 12,116 1l,306 12,386 (12,390) 1,692 1,806 1,b88 ( 1,863) PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY 1976--4TH OLTk. 1977--1ST OTR. 2ND QTR. 7.7 -2.4 4.6 7.6 -1.8 6.5 6.0 5.1 6.2 6.8 -1.1 7.3 7.1 6.8 7.2 4.0 3.0 3.5 -3.1 2.9 15.4 ( 3.0) 6.2 6.4 14.3 8.0) 0.9 6.9 12.4 12.7) 9.2) 11.21 12.6) 8.0 6.9 6.0 I1.b 3.7 3.9 QUARTERLY-AV 1976--4TH QTR. 1977--1ST fTR. 2ND QTR. 4.8 2.6 1.9 4.4 2.7 3.0 -0.7 9.5 4.0 3.2 5.0 3.0 MONTHLY 1977--MAY 1.5 4.6 17.3 ( 9.4) JUNE JULY AUG. JULY-AUG. ( 13.4) ( 5.7 -6.1 23.1 S10.9) ( ( -4.5 It.o 7.8 0.4) S 4.1) 17.1) WEEKLY LEVELS-4MILLIONS ....................... 1977-JULY 6 13 20 27 35,743 34,937 35,362 34,960 35,478 34,777 34,956 34,665 123,526 122,616 123.424 123,424 35,249 34,673 35,150 34,863 20,922 20,781 21,128 20,893 12.386 12,416 12,397 12,372 1,941 1,476 1,626 1,597 AUG. 3 10 36,256 35,681 35,658 35,097 124,743 123,838 35,735 35,550 21,450 21,158 12,337 12,365 1,949 2,027 * NOTE: I h RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO. DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. TABLE 3 NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES ($ million, not seasonally adjusted) Treasury Bills Net Change 2/ Period Total 789 579 797 3,284 3,025 539 500 434 1,510 1,048 167 129 196 1,070 642 1,582 1,415 1,747 6,202 5,187 46 120 439 191 105 109 171 77 796 881 794 245 345 232 134 160 192 1,284 1,557 1,294 192 109 997 526 325 171 165 152 1,680 959 87 207 320 337 472 1976--Qtr. II Qtr. III Qtr. IV 2,067 45 -886 1977--Qtr. I Qtr. II 1,164 2,126 -691 -368 Apr. May June 1,392 -208 942 July -1,136 1977-;June July Aug. 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 LEVEL--Aug. 10 (in billions) / -702 -1,442 -33 1,023 1,506 107 41 -- 348 174 --- 151 46 --- Federal Agencies Net Purchases 4/ Over 1- 5 5 - 10 10 5592 253 168 400 244 101 659 318 1,665 138 460 8524 114 203 469 I Within 1 year -Within 1 year -490 7,232 1,280 -468 863 1977--Feb. Mar. Treasury Coupons Net Purchases 3/ Over 10 1-5 5 - 10 81 37 S - --- - - Total Net Chanie Outright Holdings Total 5/ 1 ,059 864 3,082 1,613 891 1,631 9,273 6,303 7,267 6,227 -1,358 -46 -154 1,272 3,607 3,371 1,398 436 1,654 392 304 2,738 -4,771 3,666 4,175 -45 - 406 251 --- -- - 726 -- -- -- -- - -128 1,931 175 173 138 -- 233 113 35 -33 346 -380 2,176 -254 ---1,744 2,822 -3,207 4,561 -- -- -- --- -- --- - -- -- -- ----1,159 -2,861 -- -- ----- -704 -1,445 -- 47 -6,501 3,444 7,833 1,066 - -58 -- --- -- -- -- -- -- -- 89 -- 200 -- 68 -- 114 -- 470 -- --- 233 -- 113 -- 33 -- 380 -- 1,870 1,503 -- -- -- ----159 ---- -145 -581 -328 -82 -176 10.2 29.5 11.2 -- -- --------- ------- ------ --- -- 6.5 --------- 57.3 Net RP's 6/ 68 687 298 --- STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC AUGUST 12, 1977 -- -590 -- ----- --- --- ----335 -- -- -- ----184 1.5 .8 7.4 --14 1.4 3.6 ----88 --- -5,780 585 2,706 -144 -2,009 -4,604 105.3 Change from end-of-period to end-of-period. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions. Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills. Excluding redemptions, maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowing from the System. / Outright transactions in market and with foreign aecounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts. SIn addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues. 6/ Includes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-). STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC August 12,1977 TABLE 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS (millions of dollars) SU.S. Govt. Security npalpr Positinn_ Underwriting Syndicate PoStionsI Coorate Municipal Bonds Bonds (4) (3) Member Bank Reserve Positions Basic Reserve Deficit** Borrowing at FRB** Excess** Reserves (5) Total (6) Seasonal (7) 8 New York 38 Others 343 34 655 -180 242 24 34 8 -8,161 -2,367 -12,744 - 6,908 106 85 95 350 122p 211 116 172 541p -111 234 207 205 598p 20 132 100 63 74p 8 25 31 31 -8,742 -a,234 -4,756 -4,624 -5,703 -13,975 -8,570 - 9.399 - 9,691 - 9,716 1,832 2,418 2,443 94 79 145 258 217 167 221 257 274 94 72 53 32 22 13 -6,428 -6,289 -7,168 -10,527 -11,618 -11,449 6,406 4,450 4,906 2,320 1,605 972 82 72 103 202 226 162 265 198 214 68 72 103 10 12 13 -6,421 -5,604 =5,661 -11,504 -11,503 -10,912 Apr. May June 4,567 3,072 4,752 696 123 206 101 20 142 173 228 217 192 213 154 July 14 30 54 60p -6,586 -5,693 -5,341 -6 ,3 66p -11,409 -10,175 -10,332 -10,926p Bills (1) Coupon Issues (2) 1976--High Low 8,896 3,668 3,046 175 334 0 1977--High Low 7,234 1,729 3,017 *-1,265 278 0 1976--July Aug. Sept. 5,743 6,174 7,838 904 1,686 1,509 Oct. Nov. Dec. 6,271 6,876 8,005 1977--Jan. Feb. Mar. *3,916 *-278 143 209 292 73 206 262 323p 1977--June 1 8 15 22 29 4,172 5,579 5,711 4,345 3,477 681 281 164 -300 435 23 33 148 230 278 166 213 203 244 259 409 33 246 104 150 230 226 223 271 334 44 50 47 51 68 -4,392 -6,163 -5,414 -5,612 -4,234 - 9,433 -12,044 -12,543 -11,209 - 8,570 July 6 13 20 27 4,617 4,437 *3,927 *3,777 800 80 *-640 *-634 192 165 148 67 230 191 145 269 494 264 212 97p 265 160 406 295 58 52 56 69p -5,889 -7,632 -6,075 -5,735 - 8,839 -12,534 -12,608 -10,453 Aug. 3 *2,176 *-1.265 76 229 52 1p 598p 69p -6,478p - 9 128 10 17 24 31 *1,910 *- 50p 206p 119p 584p - -12 494 74 p p p NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury securities financed by repurchase agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-term. Underwriting syndicate positions consist of issues .till in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figures. * STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL ** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures. TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES (per cent) STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II - FOMC AUGUST 12, 1977 Short-term Federal 1976--High Low 1977--High Low 1976--July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1977--Jan. Feb, Mar, Apr. May June July 1977--June July August Daily--Aug. ITreasury u's new I I U.S. Issue-NYC Paper 1-Year 90-119 Day I6-Day (3) (4) (5) 5.58 4,63 5.80 4.47 5.31 5.29 5.25 5.53 4.27 5.90 4.63 5.60 4.63 5.54 4.35 5.33 5.63 4.40 7.52 5.65 5.50 4.48 6.78 5.83 5.30 5.23 5.11 7.12 6.86 6.66 5.03 4.95 4.65 4.61 4.68 4.69 4.73 5.35 5.39 5.42 4.92 4.75 4.35 5.10 4.98 4.66 4.72 4.76 4.75 4.75 5.26 5.42 5.38 4.90 4.84 4.68 6.24 6.09 5.68 4.61 4.58 4.58 6.22 6.44 6.47 4.57 5.04 5.24 6.32 6.55 6.39 5.16 6.51 5.50 5.46 5.44 5.40 5.39 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.49 5.60 5.30 5.25 5.25 5.20 5.20 5.55 5.23 5.14 5.08 4.62 4.67 4.60 4.54 4.96 5.02 5.19 5.02 5.04 5.04 5.01 4.97 6 13 20 27 5.06 5.14 5.20 5.19 5.37 5.40 3 10 17 24 31 5.76 5.35 5.85 iovt.-Constant Maturity Yields 90-Day (2) 5.40 4.41 90-Day (6) 3-yr (7) Funds (1) 1 8 15 22 29 4 ullis Lontercial I 7-yr (8) 20-yr (9) 8.17 7.23 7.78 7.26 8.00 7.91 7.78 7.70 7.64 7.30 7.48 7.64 7.73 7.67 7.74 7.64 7.60 6.49 6.46 6.35 6.35 6.32 7.17 7.13 7.01 7.01 6.98 5.13 5.13 5.20 5.20 5.50 5.50 5.40 5.38 5.35 5.30 5.30 5.25 5.25 5.31 5.31 5.65 5.65 6.40 6,47 6.55 6.61 6.74 6.78p 7.08 7.09 7.12 7.18 7.27 7.29p - - 6.76 7.27 7.68 7.68 7.63 7.63 7.57 7.58 7.60 7.62 7.61 7.66 7.68p Long-term Home Mortgages Corp.-Aaa Utility Munlcpal New Kecently Bond Primary Secondary Market Issue Offered Buyer Conv. FNMA Auc. GNMA Sec. (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (151 8.95 8.94 7.13 9.10 9.20 8.45 7.93 7.84 5.83 8.70 8.39 7.57 8.34 7.90 8.33 7.95 5.93 5.55 8.95 8.65 8.79 8.46 8.08 7.56 8.63 8.52 8.29 8.63 8.50 8.33 6.79 6.61 6.51 8.93 9.00 8.98 9.05 8.99 8.88 8.37 8.30 8.10 8.25 8.17 7.94 8.24 8.18 7.93 6.30 6.29 5.94 8.93 8.81 8.79 8.75 8.66 8.45 7.98 7.93 7.59 8.08 8.22 8.25 8.09 8.19 8.29 5.87 5.89 5.89 8.72 8.67 8.69 8.48 8.55 8.68 7.83 7.98 8.06 8.26 8.33 8.08 8.22 8.31 8.12 5.73 5.75 5.62 8.75 8.83 8.86 8.67 8.74 8.75 7.96 8.04 7.95 8.14 8.12 5.63 8.95 8.72 7.96 8.15 8.11 8.01 8.07 8.22 8.22 8.06 8.06 8.03 8.12 8.12 8.14 8.14 8.10 8.09p 8.85 8.85 8.85 8.88 8.95 8.79 7.99 7.99 7.99 7.92 7.90 8.14 8.14 8.12 8.17 8.08p 8.77 8.73 8.93 8.95 8.95 8.93 8.71 7.97 7.97 7.95 7.93 8,95 n.a. 8.75 8.04 8.04 8.72 NOTE: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data. Columns 5 and 6 are 1-day Wednesday quotes (prior to 1976, figures shown are for 60-89 day and 90-119 day ranges, respectively). For columns 7 through 10, the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Columns 11 and 12 are 1-day quotes for Friday and Thursday, respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 13 is an average of contract interest rates on commitments for conventional first mortgages with 80 per cent loan-to-value ratios made by a sample of insured savings and loan associations on the Friday following the end of the statement week. Column 14 gives FNMA auction data for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. Column 15 is a 1-day quote for Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FNMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auction for shortterm forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average net yields to investors on mortgage-backed securities for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mortgages carrying the coupon rate 50 basis points below the current FHA/VA ceiling. AUG. 12, 1977 1-A MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES AppendixTable Nenborrowed Monetary Base Total Loans and Investments 2 3 4 Period Total 1 2/ Moesy Stoek Meamares Cr ek,Reerve M 1 M3 M M 6 7 _ 5 4 MS M 7 4 __r_ __ 10 11 (PER CENT ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH) ANNUALLY: 1974 7.0 7.7 9.1 10.1 5.1 7. 7.1 10.6 9.0 8.9 9.5 1975 -0.2 3.2 5.9 3.9 4.4 8.3 11.1 6.5 9.7 10.5 10.1 1.0 1.2 6.9 8.0 5.6 10.9 12.8 7.1 10.3 10.0 10.2 1976 2/ SEMI-ANNUALLY! 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1976 1976 -1.5 3.6 -1.3 3.7 6.9 6.8 6.7 8.9 5.6 5.5 10.3 10.9 11.8 13.1 6.0 8.0 8.9 11.1 9-2 10.3 9.6 10.4 1ST HALF 1977 2.9 2.3 7.0 10.5 6.4 9.7 10.6 9.0 10.3 10.2 10.4 3RD QTR. 4TH QTR. 1976 1976 0. 7.6 1.3 7.7 6.1 8.0 7.2 11.2 4.9 7.2 10.4 13.4 12.9 14.5 5.7 12.4 9.9 13.8 9., 11.9 9.5 11.6 IST OTR. 2ND WTR. 1977 1977 -1.8 6.5 5.1 8.2 9.5 11.2 3.8 8.2 B.5 8.8 10.0 9.9 7.3 9.1 9.2 10.0 10.1 9.7 10.5 9.9 QUARTERLY: -2.4 4.6 QUARTERLY-AV: 3RD QTK. 4TM QTR. 1976 1976 2.7 4.4 2.6 4.8 6.3 7.1 6.9 10.8 4.4 6.5 9.1 1I.5 11.4 14.4 6.0 9.8 9.3 1,.7 9.2 11.1 9.6 11.0 OTR. 1977 1977 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.9 6.8 7.2 8.6 11.9 4.2 6.4 9.9 9.2 11.3 10.0 9.3 8.5 10.9 9.4 10.7 9.5 10.0 9.8 2.0 5.9 -6.2 6.0 11.8 4.9 1.8 7.0 -4.8 4.9 1l.6 5.6 6.5 6.6 5.1 7.1 9.1 7.7 4.1 9.7 7.6 13.5 11.1 8.6 7.1 5.9 1.6 13.7 0.0 7.7 12.0 8.8 10.0 16.1 10.6 13.1 12.6 12.3 13.3 16.9 12.6 13.4 6.9 2.0 6.2 13.5 9.7 13.4 10.8 7.9 10.6 15.3 11.9 13.7 11.5 7.6 8.6 14.1 10.6 10.5 11.8 7.7 8.7 13.8 10.5 10.3 10.9 -13.1 -3.1 13.0 1.5 4.8 17.3 10.4 -13.3 -4.3 14.1 -3.1 2.9 15.4 10.6 -0.2 5.0 11.8 6.2 6.4 14.3 3.7 14.7 10.0 14.0 10.3 6.9 9.3 5.4 0.8 5.4 19.4 0.7 4.5 18.3 9.7 7.1 8.6 13.5 4.7 8.1 16.8 11.4 6.9 9.4 12.4 7.3 9.8 16.0 8.7 7.0 6.2 11.7 5.4 10.0 13.8 10.6 8.7 8.0 11.3 7.6 10.7 14.3 10.9 11.4 7.8 10.6 7.7 10.5 13.7 11.0 11.7 8.5 10.6 7.9 10.7 13.6 1ST 2ND QTR. MONTHLY: 1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 1977--JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY P 1/ 2/ P - BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE BASED ON QUARTERLY AVERAGE DATA. PRELIMINARY REQUIREMENTS. Appendix Table 1-B AUG. 12, 1977 MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Bank Reserves1/ Period Non- ank Credit Monetary Money Stock Measures Total Loans Total borrowed 34,174 34,015 34,465 33,447 33,885 34,412 104,380 110,394 11B,054 695.2 725.5 768.2 283.1 294.8 312.4 61/. 33B,33 33,998 33,823 33,701 33,897 33,761 114,625 115,252 115,739 755.9 762.0 OCT. NOV. DEC. 33t992 34,325 34,465 33,896 34,253 34,412 11b,424 117,304 lib,054 1977--JAN. FEb. MAR. 34,778 34,397 34,308 34,710 34,326 34,204 APR. MAY JUNE 34,680 34,723 34,862 JULY P Base and Investments M1 M2 M M M4 M5 M6 M7 7G0.4 746.5 80J.5 i070.5 1174.7 1300.3 llbl.z 1161.£ 1308.3 740.3 981.5 1092.6 1237.1 1221.6 1351.1 1488.8 705.2 710.4 716.3 1168.8 1160.0 1193.9 774.1 775.4 779.4 1e37.7 1/45.8 12i7.0 1378.6 766.8 305.0 306.5 306.9 775.4 782.b 786.2 310.4 310.4 312.4 7Z5.9 732.3 1210.7 740.3 768.2 794.6 803.5 1273.0 1285.o 1300.3 1413.9 1223.4 1237.1 119,100 119,077 119,572 790.6 746.3 750.7 756.1 1248.9 1258.2 1268.1 809.3 814.0 818.2 1312.0 1321.5 1330.3 1452.2 600.3 807.0 313.8 314.0 315.4 1475.5 1502.4 1517.1 1527.8 34,606 34,517 34,599 120,749 121,376 122,027 816.4 823.4 829.5 320.5 320.7 321.9 764.6 767.6 772.8 1281.2 1289.0 826.2 8e9.9 1342.8 1299.5 836.8 1351.3 1363.4 1488.5 1496.1 1511.2 1541.6 1551.8 1565.6 35,364 35,042 123,477 835,9 326.8 7u3.6 1316.8 846.4 1179.6 1528.4 1583.4 8 15 22 29 34,507 34,686 34,9b0 35,162 34,281 34,463 34,709 34,828 121,208 121,546 122,217 122,941 321.5 320.9 322.4 322.4 771.6 771.1 774.0 774.6 634.9 834.8 838.0 839.3 6 13 20 27P 35,743 34,937 35,362 34,960 35,478 34,777 34,956 34,665 123,526 122,816 123,424 123,424 325.7 324.3 329.0 844.1 327.9 780.1 780.7 785.9 786.1 35,658 124,743 326.6 787.1 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 4 664.i 1439.1 MONTHLY: 1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. 1367.5 1397.5 1426.6 1439.1 1466.0 1427.1 1436.3 1446.7 1463.3 1476.1 1488.8 WEEKLY: 1977-JUNE JULY AUG. 3P 36,256 843.6 848.4 848.4 849.9 WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS. MONTHLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES. M3, M5, H6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS. 1/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. P - PRELIMINARY NOTES: WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR AUG. 12, 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 2-A COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Commercial Paper1 Period F IS 7 8 (Per cent annual rates of growth) ANNUALLY: 36.5 -6.1 -23.5 5.6 15.5 15.6 -28.9 -21.1 13.8 16.2 0.0 13.5 33.4 7.5 29.6 -1.0 19.2 6.3 7.2 16.6 -1.4 21.6 15.2 12.2 6.4 12.2 16.5 -40.5 1.3 16.9 15.9 8.1 6.2 0.0 -16.1 15.2 4.1 -7.0 10.9 12.0 11.2 6.1 6.6 31.1 8.3 20.9 15.3 14.6 17.2 7.0 7.4 9.2 -11.9 22.6 7.4 1.9 -1.9 13.3 10.9 6.7 17.3 2.2 11.C 15.6 9.7 4.3 -Z2.2 -67.9 -35.1 -15.2 -1.9 21.2 13.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 15.3 13.b 5.2 4.6 10.6 10.5 9.4 10.3 22.5 21.6 -3.8 3.8 -20.9 -11.6 13.6 30.8 -20.7 14.2 14.7 8.0 0.1 10.1 11.7 15.2 6.3 9.7 14.1 15.2 47.6 19.7 3.8 11.4 5.7 10.5 12.1 15.1 9.4 3RD QTR. 1976 4TH QTR. 1976 3.7 7.4 6.2 15.7 14.5 16.1 19.5 27.5 10.3 10.0 1S QTR. 1977 2ND QTR. 1977 2.2 8.2 9.5 9.5 11.9 9.4 15.4 4.0 6.7 14.2 1976 197o 3.2 6.0 7.0 12.2 12.6 17.1 13.6 24.7 11.7 10.6 1ST QTR. 1977 2NO (TR. 1977 3.1 6.3 12.5 6.3 14.0 9.6 21.9 7.9 7.1 11.6 1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. uEC. 0.9 5.3 -1.1 15.3 -2.1 6.9 9.5 -0.3 9.2 13.5 16.1 17.1 15.2 11.4 Ib.3 17.9 16.b 12.6 21.7 23.3 19.6 29.9 31.0 1977--JAN. FE6. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY P 4.1 -3.1 5.7 21.6 -1.5 4.6 16.7 11.0 10.7 6.7 6.9 6.3 13.2 11.0 12.9 11.7 10.7 9.5 7.6 10.7 15.4 21.9 13.4 1974 1975 1976 12 SEMI-ANNUALLY: 4.0 4.6 1ST HALF 1976 2ND HALF 1976 1ST HALF 1977 QUARTERLY: QUARTERLY-AV: 3Ru QTR. 4TH OTR. -24.6 -16.9 11.1 13.0 6.1 MONTHLY: - 1/ I - & - GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATiE PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. 2/ BASED CN QUARTERLY AVERAbE DATA. P - PRELIMINARY. I - 10.4 9.7 4.5 -2.3 8.5 I MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS & - - DERIVEO BY AVERAGING 8.6 10.3 5.1 6.8 6.7 17.9 68.9 5.0 3.3 10.0 11.5 9.8 12.1 21.5 28.2 18.4 15.8 11.2 15.5 5.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 I END OF CURRENT 20.3 14.9 9.8 7.3 0.0 4.8 6.7 6.6 11.4 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.8 14.6 I- 29.3 0.0 -28.6 0.0 -3.4 -44.9 MONTH I - AND END OF h AUG. 12, 1977 APPENDIX TABLE 2-B COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES Currency Period DemandT emnd Deposits Time and Savings Deposits Other Than CD's ISavings 5 Other 6 329.3 369.6 427.9 136.2 161.0 202.4 206.6 469.0 468.9 472.5 400.1 403.9 409.4 477.8 484.2 491.1 _Total 1 2 3 67.8 73.7 60.5 215.3 221.0 231.9 41o.3 451.7 491.1 78.1 78.6 226.9 227.9 227.7 Mutual Credit Savings Union Savings ank & S&L Shares Bonds 4 Shares 7 8 ComNonmercial Deposit Funds Paper Total Total Gov't Demand 3/Depo Sec 1/ I_ 9 ShortTerm U.S. Gov't 10 11 12 13 14 ANNUALLY: 1974 1975 1976 b.L 8.2 225.5 89.0 82.1 63.3 37.6 33.7 51.4 11.4 182.5 185.8 169.4 217.6 216.0 220.0 6b.9 65.0 63.1 3b.1 41.9 42.0 12.6 12.0 415.5 422.0 427.9 192.5 197.3 202.4 222.9 2Z4.7 Z25.5 62.3 62.2 63.3 43.b 193.1 MONTHLY: 1976--JULY AUG. SEPT. 79.2 OCT. NOV. DEC. 79.8 80.5 230.6 230.2 231.9 1977-JAN. FEB. MAR. 81.1 81.8 82.2 232.7 232.1 233.2 495.6 500.0 502.8 432.5 436.7 440.6 206.1 208.4 210.2 226.4 226.4 230.4 63.1 63. 62.2 APR. MAY JUNE 83.1 83.6 64.0 237.4 237.1 26.0 505.7 509.2 514.b 444.1 446.9 450.9 211.9 212.7 212.3 232.2 234.2 238.6 JULY P 85.1 241.7 519.5 456.7 213.8 8 15 22 29 83.8 63.8 84.6 237.8 237.1 238.2 237.6 513.3 513.9 515.6 516.9 450.1 450.2 451.6 452.2 JULY 6 13 20 27P 85.0 84.8 84.9 85.3 240.7 Z39.5 244.1 242.6 518.4 519.2 519.3 520.5 AUG. 3P 85.4 243.2 521.3 80.2 48.2 51.4 10.1 13.2 13.0 11.2 10.0 50.7 52.7 11.7 11.z 61.6 62.3 63.9 52.7 56.2 55.9 10.8 10.6 10.1 242.9 62.6 55.9 11.8 212.7 212.3 212.2 211.9 237.4 237.9 240.3 63.2 63.7 64.0 64.8 54.9 50.6 58.2 59.5 7.5 6.5 12.5 Ic.1 454.4 456.4 456.9 456.2 212.4 213.2 213.8 214.5 242.0 243.2 243.1 243.7 64.0 62.8 62.4 62.3 53.0 54.4 59.2 58.0 10.8 10.7 11.8 12.8 458.5 215.2 243.2 62.8 54.0 12.6 WEEKLY: 1977-JUNE 84.2 139.4 - ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF LURRENT MONTH AND bND OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA. INCLUDES BORROWINGS FROM OTHER THAN COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE FORM UF FEDERAL FUNDS PURCHASED, SELURITIES SOLU UNDER AGREEMENTS TO REPURCHASE, AND OTHER LIABILITIES FOR BORROWED MONEY, PLUS GROSS LIABILITIES TO OWN FOREIGN BRANCHES (EURODOLLAR BDRROWINGS), LOANS SOLD TO AFFILIATES, LOAN RPS, AND OTHER MINOR ITEMS. INCLUDES TREAsURY DEPOSITS AT MEMBER BANKS AND FEDERAL RESER\ PRELIMINARY
@FedFRASER