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Content last modified 6/05/2009.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
SUPPLEMENT
CURRENT ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
(Including a Preliminary Report on the Informal Survey
of Authorizations for Capital Spending. July 1969)
Prepared for the
Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff
Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
August 8, 1969
SUPPLEMENTAL NOTES
The Domestic Economy
On August 6th, three major aluminum companies increased the
price of aluminum ingot by one cent a pound to 28 cents a pound and
raised the price of some fabricated aluminum products by an average of
4 per cent.
However, failure of the leading producer to increase the
ingot price suggests that the other companies will lower the price by
27 cents a pound.
On the other hand, the leading producer has already
raised the price of some fabricated aluminum prices by 4 per cent, and
it is virtually certain that at least selective increases will spread
throughout the industry.
As noted in the Greenbook, following the recent increases in
prices of steel products by U.S. Steel, General Motors notified U.S.
Steel not to ship it any steel at the new prices until G.M. could
reevaluate the competition steel price situation.
When the steel price
increases shortly became industry-wide, G.M. notified U.S. Steel to
resume shipments at the new prices but also indicated they were continuing to study the impact of the recent steel increases.
In the Census survey of consumers, taken in July, households
reported somewhat improved income expectations and indicated moderately
higher new and used car purchase plans, but a decline was expected in
new house purchases.
The index of expected new car purchases, according to the
Census forecasting equation, suggests that new car sales in the second
half of 1969 will be up by about 100,000 units from the 9.7 million
-2annual rate (including imports)
of the second quarter.
The index of
expected used car purchases in July rose one percentage point from
April, but was off slightly from a year earlier.
The number of houses which families expect to purchase is
off sharply from both a year earlier and April.
on household durables,
on the other hand, are virtually unchanged from
April and up considerably from a year earlier.
indexes
is
Expected expenditures
This movement in the
rather surprising since historically there has been a close
correlation between expenditures on new houses and expenditures on
household durables.
INDEXES OF EXPECTED PURCHASES AND EXPENDITURES
(January-April 1967 = 100)
Seasonally adjusted
1968
July
Oct.
Jan.
1969
Apr.
Expected new car
purchases
104.2
104.5
102.8
103.6
104.6
Expected used car
purchases
101.9
100.8
99.2
99.8
100.8
Expected house
purchases
106.7
101.8
96.9
101.2
97.0
Expected expenditures
on household durables
102.6
103.9
105.8
106.6
106.3
July
The Domestic Financial Situation
Preliminary estimates suggest that mutual savings banks
actually lost savings during July, for the first time since 1959.
(July 1966 was not, of course,
a crisis month for MSB's.)
was concentrated in New York--primarily in New York City.
banks in Massachusetts,
The outflow
Savings
which pay slightly higher than ceiling rates,
experienced inflows normal for the month.
There is evidence that out-
flows from New York City savings banks have continued, at a reduced
pace, into the first week of August.
On a seasonally adjusted basis,
the rate of growth in mutual savings banks deposits declined considerably further in July.
SAVINGS GROWTH AT NONBANK DEPOSITARY INSTITUTIONS
(Seasonally adjusted annual rate in per cent)
MSB
S&L
Both
6.2
6.1
6.1
4.2
3.5
3.7
April
3.0
1.7
2.1
May
6.6
4.5
5.2
June p/
3.1
4.3
3.9
July P/
1.2
.2
2.2
2.2
1969 - I
II
June-July p/
p/
Preliminary.
Note: Because of seasonal adjustment difficulties, month-to-month
patterns may not be significant.
.5
2.2
The estimated increase in commercial bank credit during
July has been revised downward significantly from that presented in
the Greenbook, reflecting reductions in all major credit categories.
The financing-related increase in bank holdings of U.S. Government
securities is now estimated to have been substantially less, and the
liquidation of other securities--mainly municipals--is estimated to
have been somewhat larger.
Loan expansion--exclusive of that associated
with matched sale-purchase transactions--has been revised downward by
nearly half.
Consequently, total bank credit--again exclusive of the
influence of these transactions--has remained virtually unchanged since
the end of May.
Loan expansion also has slowed markedly since the end of May,
reflecting mainly the sharp reduction in business loan growth, although
expansion of real estate and consumer loans also has moderated.
Business
loans are estimated to have risen only $100 million in July, after
remaining unchanged in June.
Even with the inclusion of loans sold out-
right to bank holding companies and affiliates, the average monthly
increase in business loans in June and July would still only be about
one third of that earlier in the year.
NET CHANGE IN BANK CREDIT
All Commercial Banks
(Seasonally adjusted percentage change, at annual rates)
1968
1Q
1969
JuneJuly
1st 5
months
2.0(0.2) -2 /
Total loans and investments-
10.7
3.9
U.S. Government securities
-15.6
-21.5
Other securities
26.9
--
Total loans
13.1
11.2
3.2(0.5)
Business loans
15.2
16.8
11.9
7.7
5.2(1.5)
0.6
All other loans
July
1/
2/
7.5
15.0
-6.7
2/
2
-11.8
2/
7.8(2.32/
7.8(2.3)-
4.8(0.4) 2 /
Last Wednesday-of-month series. Data for July are preliminary
estimates and are subject to revision.
Figures in parentheses are adjusted to exclude $1.2 billion of
System matched sale-purchase transactions.
-6KEY INTEREST RATES
1969
Lows
Highs
July 14
Aug.
7
Short-Term Rates
Federal funds (weekly averages)
3-months
Treasury bills (bid)
Bankers' acceptances
Euro-dollars
Federal agencies
Finance paper
CD's (prime NYC)
Highest quoted new issue
Secondary market
6-months
Treasury bills (bid)
Bankers' acceptances
Commercial paper
Federal agencies
CD's (prime NYC)
Highest quoted new issue
Secondary
5.95 (1/1)
5.91
6.38
7.14
6.08
6.25
(3/24)
(2/17)
(1/2)
(3/26)
(2/6)
9.57 (8/6)
7.14
8.50
12.50
7.81
8.25
9.07 (7/9)
6.94
(7/29)
8.50 (7/10)
(7/9)
(6/10) 11.20 (7/9)
(7/23) 7.44 (7/9)
(7/30) 7.50 (7/10)
9.57 (8/6)
6.97
8.00
10.36
7.58
8.00
6.00
6.45 (2/13)
6.00
8.70 (7/23)
6.00
8.70 (7/9)
6.00
8.50
6.04 (3/25)
6.50 (2/17)
6.25 (1/7)
7.35
8.62 (7/10)
8.75 (7/9)
7.98 (7/9)
7.11
8.13
6.32 (1/16)
7.38
8.62
8.75
8.14
6.25
6.25
6.50 (1/30)
9.00 (7/23)
5.86 (1/16)
7.47 (7/1)
3.90 (1/2)
(7/15)
(7/9)
(7/9)
(7/30)
8.50
7.82
6.25
6.25
9.00 (7/9)
8.50
5.40 (6/11)
7.09
5.30
5.30
6.11 (1/20)
5.91 (4/14)
7.08 (7/9)
6.46 (5/28)
6.94
6.22
6.96
6.17
6.56 (1/2)
7.26 (2/3)
7.10 (7/16)
7.88 (8/6)
7.08 (7/10) 7.00
7.83 (7/10) 7.88
7.05 (1/9)
7.80 (6/18)
7.76 (6/18)
7.68
7.68 (7/10)
7.57
4.57 (1/2)
5.93 (7/30)
5.78 (7/31)
5.65 (7/9)
5.52 (7/9)
5.80
5.70
7.66 (1/9)
8.47 (7/7)
8.47 (7/7)
8.28 (8/4)
1-year
Treasury bills (bid)
Prime municipals
7.30
Intermediate and Long-Term
Treasury coupon issues
5-years
20-years
Corporate
Seasoned Aaa
Baa
New Issue Aaa
No call protection
Call protection
6.90 (2/20)
Municipal
Bond Buyer Index
Moody's Aaa
Mortgage--implicit yield
in FNMA weekly auction 1/
1/
4.82 (1/23)
Yield on 6-month forward commitment after allowance for commitment fee and
required purchase and holding of FNMA stock. Assumes discount on 30-year
loan amortized over 15 years.
August 8, 1969.
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
PRELIMINARY REPORT:
INFORMAL SURVEY OF
AUTHORIZATIONS FOR CAPITAL SPENDING
July 1969*
A survey of current authorizations for capital spending of
about 200 of the largest corporations, conducted in late July by the
Federal Reserve System, indicates that companies outside the utility
industry have reduced somewhat their spending authorizations for the
second half of this year from what they had planned six months ago.
For the year 1970, planned spending authorizations for the nonutility
firms were about the same as had been anticipated earlier this year.
On the other hand, the utility companies, which have a long lead time
between authorizations and actual expenditures, report they have
increased their planned authorizations for capital spending both for
the second half of this year and for next year.
For all reporting
companies combined, the decline from earlier plans in the second half
*
The survey included approximately the 200 corporations that were
planning the largest expenditures for plant and equipment in 1969.
The chief executive officer in each company was contacted directly
by a President of a Federal Reserve District Bank during the latter
part of July. Each company was asked for its current amount of
authorizations or appropriations for capital spending for the second
half of 1969 and for the full year 1970, and also for the authorizations or appropriations as anticipated six months earlier. The
companies were also asked, by way of background, for actual authorizations or appropriations for the last half of 1968 and the first
half of 1969, and for the average time lag between authorizations
and actual expenditures for plant and equipment. Returns were
received from 193 companies, including 121 in manufacturing, 18 in
transportation, 6 in retail trade, and 48 in utilities. These firms
are not necessarily representative of actual or anticipated authorizations for capital spending in their respective industries.
of this year is less than 1 per cent and for the year 1970 authorizations have been raised by 2 per cent (Table I).
As distinct from revision of earlier plans, authorizations
of these reporting corporations for 1970 are about the same as the
amount now planned for the year 1969 (Table IV).
This is in sharp
contrast to the second half of this year, when authorizations are
running 16 per cent above the second half of 1968 level.
This sharp
increase is broadly consistent with the findings of the Commerce-SEC
survey published in early June.
These findings would not be inconsistent
with some decline in fixed capital spending at some time in 1970 from
the record level now indicated for the second half of this year.
A much higher proportion of the companies surveyed indicate
that they have made revisions in their authorizations for the last half
of this year than for the year 1970 (Table II).
Almost one-third of
the nonutility companies reported that they have reduced their authorizations for the second half of 1969, while one-quarter increased theirs
and the remainder have not changed their schedules.
In contrast, only
one-quarter of the nonutility firms reported any reduction and only
one-seventh any increase in planned authorizations for 1970.
About
three-fifths of the reporting firms have not thus far this year, altered
their capital authorizations for 1970.
The significance of this
differential revision pattern for the second half of this year and for
1970 is not clear.
It could mean simply that at any given point of time
corporations are more actively concerned with near-term developments
than those with even a modestly longer time-horizon.
Because the Federal Reserve survey asked for the amounts
authorized for capital spending rather than for actual outlays, it is
difficult to translate the results into projections of the actual
expenditures in 1969 and 1970.
Most manufacturing corporations indi-
cated that there is an average lag between authorizations and actual
expenditures of 6 to 12 months.
For the transportation companies, the
lag is somewhat longer, 12 to 18 months.
lags averaging about 12 to 24 months.
And the utilities reported
These lags would suggest that
changes in authorizations for the second half of 1969 would show up in
actual expenditures mainly in 1970.
Many reasons were given for revisions in authorizations.
A
number of nonutility companies indicated that tight money led to their
reductions.
Others, especially in transportation, listed prospective
repeal of the investment tax credit as the reason for cutbacks.
Uncertain business conditions also were reported as playing a prompting
role in reconsideration of authorization volume.
A large number of
respondents noted that, although tight money is a problem, they are
still planning to maintain or even increase their authorizations because
they need additional capacity, fear further cost increases, or had
recently embarked on expansion programs which could not efficiently be
scaled back.
Our over-all impression of the survey results is that current
capital expenditure authorizations are being watched closely and are
subject to rather prompt revision, but that such changes would be more
-4-
likely to flow from general business conditions than from high interest
rates and restricted availability of credit.
However, it is important
to note that the results of this informal survey may be biased in
regard,
since it
this
was limited to the "giants" of industry who can be
presumed to have less difficulty generating or obtaining funds for
capital expansion programs than do smaller firms.
TABLE 1
PER CENT CHANGE IN AUTHORIZATIONS FOR CAPITAL SPENDING
FROM SIX MONTHS EARLIER, ALL FIRMS
Industry
1969-2nd Half
1970-Year
^
Manufacturing
-0.7
-2.7
-2.8
2.0
-0.5
-0.1
Transportation & Retail
-2.2
-2.9
Total
Total, Nonutilities
5.9
3.2
Utilities
__._
_ _.~..~..__ __ __.~
TABLE II
CHANGES IN AUTHORIZATIONS FOR CAPITAL SPENDING
FROM SIX MONTHS EARLIER, ALL FIRMS
Per Cent Distribution of Companies Reporting
1970-Year
1969-2nd Half
Industry
Increase
Decrease
Total
27
29
Total, Nonutilities
22
Manufacturing
No Change
Increase
Decrease
No Change
44
20
22
58
32
46
13
26
61
23
33
44
14
25
61
13
30
57
12
29
59
43
23
34
38
13
49
Transportation &
Retail
Utilities
TABLE III
CHANGES IN AUTHORIZATIONS FOR CAPITAL SPENDING
FROM SIX MONTHS EARLIER, MANUFACTURING FIRMS
Per Cent Distribution of Companies Reporting
1970-Year
1969-2nd Half
Class
Increase
Decrease
Total
23
33
I
22
II
III
NOTE:
No Change
Increase
Decrease
44
14
25
61
45
33
12
19
69
24
32
44
20
18
62
22
31
47
9
32
59
Class is based on planned 1969 plant and equipment expenditures.
I = $250 million or more
II = $100 - 250 million
III = $25 - 100 million
TABLE IV
AUTHORIZATIONS FOR CAPITAL SPENDING
COMPARED EARLIER PERIOD ALL FIRMS COMPARED WITH YEAR WITH
YEAR EARLIER PERIOD, ALL I
(Per cent change)
1969-2nd Half
1970-Year
Total
15.6
0.8
Total, Nonutilities
17.8
-2.4
Manufacturing
15.5
-2.4
Transportation &
Retail
29.2
-25.8
11.8
6.0
Industry
Utilities
1/ Anticipated authorizations for second half of 1969 and
for year 1970.
No Change
TABLE V
AUTHORIZATIONS FOR CAPITAL SPENDING
COMPARED WITH YEAR EARLIER PERIOD, ALL FIRMS- "
Per Cent Distribution of Companies Reporting
1970-Year
1969-2nd Half
Increase
Decrease
3
49
48
3
34
5
42
53
5
59
35
6
45
50
5
70
30
0
28
67
5
64
36
0
66
33
0
Increase
Decrease
Total
62
35
Total, Nonutilities
61
Manufacturing
Transportation &
Retail
Industry
Utilities
1/ Anticipated
No Change
No Change
authorizations for second half of 1969 and for year 1970.
Selected Comments by Respondents
Firms Reducing Authorizations:
"Tightness of money ('haven't run out yet but it is scarce
and expensive'), and uncertainty as to future business activity levels."
"Plans might have been further reduced if it were not for
the continuing pressures of higher wage costs, lower productivity, and
the continued threat of inflation."
"The Federal Reserve and other monetary and fiscal officials
from published statements erroneously conclude, in my opinion, that
capital spending has been increased on the basis of 'do it now even if
it is not needed because it will cost more later.' This is not the
case. None of our capital expenditures are based on such a premise.
The reductions we are making are because we greatly fear that the
monetary stringencies being exercised are too severe and that we face
a recession, therefore we find it necessary to defer needed projects
in order to preserve our capital against what we believe will be a
severe period ahead. As you and others know directly from me, repeal
of the 7% investment tax credit will prove to be unwise and ultimately
inflationary because this would reduce the incentive to productivity
and hence the supply of goods and services."
"Markets developing more slowly than anticipated."
"Anticipated lag in business activity.
Higher costs."
"Decline is accounted for by construction delays and delays
in securing equipment and not by a change in plans."
"Cash situation tight; earnings below expected level."
"Uncertainties in general economic picture; high interest
rates; anti-inflationary measures in general."
"Heavily curtailed due to money market conditions.
policy dangerous."
in
Fiscal
"Curtailing because of money costs and anticipated slowdown
residential construction."
Firms Increasing Authorizations:
"Increase not due (at least directly) to economic conditions."
"Increases due to expectations of higher construction costs,
higher taxes, and inflation in general."
"Increases due to expectations of continuation of current
economic conditions, i.e., to beat increasing cost."
"Increase in consumer demand as well as greater opportunities for cost reducing projects offering rapid payout."
"Starting new program of capital expenditures just to 'stay
competitive' in particular lines. Stabilization policies will have no
impact on this kind of investment decision."
"Suggests greater restraint by Federal Government in its
budget."
Firms Making No Changes:
"Investment decisions have not been affected by either
tight money or the prospect of a softening of the economy over the
next few months."
"Any change which might be made in plans for capital
spending will be based on many factors such as supply-demand forecasts and technical evaluations, as well as economic and financial
factors. Rarely would economic or financial factors alone control
planning for capital spending."
"Price or availability of money has had no influence on
capital expenditures up to now. Costs of construction, however, have
been an influence as they relate to labor and material for construction of new plants."
"No change due to interest rates or business outlook."
"The suspension of the investment tax credit and tight
money will force a tighter look at all projects."
"No change. Growth in consumer products; need the capacity
even if slowdown in economy."
-10-
"The primary incentive for capital expenditures is not
related to interest cost, but rather whether the investment will
increase productivity enough to offset increasing labor costs."
"If we had not already planned significant reductions, I
am sure things like the repeal of the investment tax credit and the
tax surcharge would have been reflected in an even greater reduction."
To facilitate easy reference, the staff is distributing
the recently revised data for the national income and products
accounts in a separate attachment, rather than as an appendix to
the Greenbook.
REVISION OF U.S. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
ACCOUNTS, 1966-1968*
The annual revision of the U.S. national income and
product accounts this July presented new estimates for the three years
1966-1968. But the broad patterns of economic developments shown by
the revised figures are essentially unchanged from those indicated by
the earlier figures.
Current dollar GNP has been raised by one-fourth of 1
per cent for 1966 and by one-half of 1 per cent for 1967 and 1968.
Constant dollar GNP is little changed from the earlier figures, with
revisions in the price deflator offsetting those in the current dollar
estimates. The GNP implicit price deflator is now shown to have risen
at a rate of 3.2 per cent in 1967 and 4.0 per cent in 1968, rather
than the 3.1 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively, shown by the
earlier figures. The annual rate of increase in the deflator in the
first quarter of this year is 4.7 per cent, in contrast to the earlier
4.3 per cent; and the rate for the second quarter is 4.8 per cent.
(Note: these rates of change are computed from unpublished, unrounded
data and should not be quoted publicly.)
Personal income and disposable income have been raised only
slightly. But consumption expenditures for 1968 were revised up by
more than income; thus, both personal saving and the ratio of saving to
disposable income for 1968 and for the first quarter of 1969 are now
significantly lower than shown earlier.
RATIO OF PERSONAL SAVING TO DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
(Per Cent)
1968
1969
1968
I
II
III
IV
I
Revised figures
6.5
6.9
7.2
5.6
6.3
5.4
5.8
Previous figures
6.9
7.1
7.5
6.3
6.8
6.1
n.a.
II
The annual revisions in the national income and product
figures incorporate a wide range of both new and revised data from
various sources which have become available since the earlier estimates
were made. The quarterly estimates also reflect the updating of
seasonal adjustments. The revised GNP expenditure and income series,
along with other related items regularly included in the Greenbook, are
shown in the following tables, which also include annual data back to
1961 for convenient reference.
* Prepared by J.C.G. Peret, Senior Economist, National Income, Labor Force,
and Trade Section, Division of Research and Statistics.
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
July 16, 1969
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted. Expenditures and income
figures are billions of dollars, with quarterly figures at annual rates.)
1968
I
1969
II
III
IV
I
IIp
Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
835.3
833.6
640.2
858.7
848.8
650.4
876.4
869.2
666.7
892.5
882.0
675.3
908.7
902.1
692.1
925.1
915.6
703.1
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
520.6
79.5
226.1
215.1
530.3
81.8
228.5
220.0
544.9
550.7
86.3
234.3
230.1
562.0
88.4
238.6
235.0
570.7
90.4
240.6
239.8
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
Business fixed investment
Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
119.4
28.6
126.6
30.3
86.4
9.9
10.3
125.2
29.9
133.9
31.9
91.5
10.5
10.7
135.2
33.3
95.3
6.6
6.6
139.9
32.4
98.0
9.5
9.3
Net Exports
89.1
1.6
1.3
85.8
233.3
225.8
88.1
7.2
7.5
1.9
3.4
193.4
96.3
76. 1
20.1
97.1
198.4
99.0
77.9
21.1
99.4
202.5
100.9
78.8
22.1
101.7
206.7
101.9
79.3
22.5
104.8
210.0
101.6
79.0
22.6
108.5
212.5
100.6
78.7
21.9
111.9
Gross national product in
constant (1958) dollars
GNP implicit deflator (1958=100)
693.3
120.5
705.8
121.7
712.8
122.9
718.5
124.2
723.1
125.7
727.3
127.2
Personal income
Wages and salaries
Disposable income
Personal saving
Saving rate (per cent)
664.3
448.2
575.0
39.9
6.9
680.1
459.0
587.4
42.3
7.2
696.1
470.7
593.4
33.2
5.6
711.2
482.1
604.3
38.0
6.3
724.4
493.3
610.7
33.0
5.4
740.7
504.1
623.0
36.4
5.8
Gov't. purchases of goods & services
Federal
Defense
Other
State & local
Corporate profits before tax
87.9
90.7
3.6
91.5
1.2
94.5
1.5
95.5
2.0
n.a.
Federal government receipts and
expenditures
(N.I.A.
basis)
165.7
174.1
-8.4
170.8
180.3
-9.5
181.4
184.2
-2.8
187.3
187.4
-0.1
198.1
189.0
9.1
n.a.
190.5
n.a.
Total labor force (millions)
Armed forces
Civilian labor force "
Unemployment rate (per cent)
81.8
3.5
78.4
3.7
82.2
3.5
78.7
3.6
82.4
3.6
78.8
3.6
82.6
3.5
79.1
3.4
83.7
3.5
80.2
3.3
83.8
3.5
80.3
3.5
Nonfarm payroll employment (millions)
67.1
19.6
67.6
19.7
68.1
19.8
68.7
19.9
69.5
20.1
70.0
20.1
162.1
164.2
165.2
167.4
170.2
172.8
84.9
84.8
84.0
84.2
84.5
84.4
1.50
1.44
1.55
1.60
1.72
1.51
8.19
8.44
9.01
8.82
8.37
8.54
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit (-)
Manufacturing
Industrial production (1957-59=100)
Capacity utilization, manufacturing
(per cent)
Housing starts, private (millions A. R.)
Sales new U.S.-made autos (millions,
A. R.)
III
IV
July 16, 1969
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted. Expenditures and income
figures are billions of dollars, with quarterly figures at annual rates.)
1967
1966
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
729.5
718.2
570.2
743.3
727.1
573.7
755.9
744.0
583.3
770.7
750.8
585.6
774.2
765.2
591.0
783.5
780.2
601.7
800.4
792.6
611.3
816.1
806.6
620.2
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
457.8
71.2
202.6
183.9
461.9
68.5
206.4
186.9
471.2
71.3
209.6
190.2
474.5
71.9
209.1
193.5
480.9
70.0
213.2
197.7
489.8
73.5
214.4
201.8
495.7
73.3
215.8
206.6
502.6
75.2
216.8
210.6
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
Business fixed investment
Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
117.5
27.4
78.8
11.3
10.9
122.4
26.0
80.3
16.2
16.2
119.6
24.7
83.0
11.9
12.4
126.2
22.1
84.2
19.9
20.4
113.6
21.4
83.3
9.0
9.1
109.4
23.1
83.0
3.4
3.0
117.7
26.5
83.5
7.8
7.0
123.3
28.8
85.0
9.5
8.0
5.6
3.8
Net Exports
6.2
5.6
4.4
4.9
5.4
5.8
148.0
72.8
55.3
17.5
75.2
153.4
75.6
58.5
17.2
77.7
160.7
80.5
63.3
17.2
80.1
165.2
82.1
65.6
16.5
83.0
174.2
87.8
69.9
17.9
86.4
178.5
90.3
71.9
18.4
88.1
181.3
91.3
73.0
18.4
90.0
186.4
93.5
74.6
18.9
92.9
Gross national product in
constant (1958) dollars
GNP implicit deflator (1958=100)
649.1
112.4
655.0
113.5
660.2
114.5
668.1
115.4
666.5
116.2
670.5
116.9
678.0
118.1
683.5
119.4
Personal income
Wages and salaries
Disposable income
Personal saving
Saving rate (per cent)
570.3
380.4
499.9
29.6
5.9
580.7
390.3
506.0
31.2
6.2
592.9
400.0
515.9
31.6
6.1
605.0
407.4
525.6
37.7
7.2
615.2
413.2
534.4
40.0
7.5
622.2
417.7
541.6
37.7
7.0
634.5
426.5
550.3
40.7
7.4
645.9
436.5
559.8
43.1
7.7
85.5
83.2
78.4
79.5
84.4
Gov't. purchases of goods & services
Federal
Defense
Other
State & local
Corporate profits before tax
83.9
84.2
79.1
Federal government receipts and
expenditures (N.I.A. basis)
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit (-)
136.4
135.0
1.4
141.4
138.4
3.0
145.3
146.5
-1.2
147.0
151.1
-4.1
147.5
159.5
-12.0
148.3
161.4
-13.2
152.0
165.3
-13.4
156.4
168.8
-12.3
Total labor force (millions)
Armed forces
Civilian labor force "
Unemployment rate (per cent)
78.1
2.9
75.2
3.8
78.5
3.1
75.5
3.8
79.1
3.2
75.9
3.8
79.8
3.3
76.5
3.7
80.2
3.4
76.8
3.7
80.3
3.5
76.8
3.9
81.1
3.5
77.6
3.9
81.6
3.5
78.2
3.9
Nonfarm payroll employment (millions)
Manufacturing
62.8
18.8
63.7
19.2
64.4
19.4
64.9
19.5
65.4
19.6
65.6
19.4
65.9
19.4
66.5
19.5
Industrial production (1957-59=100)
Capacity utilization, manufacturing
(per cent)
152.3
155.3
157.7
159.3
157.2
156.0
157.2
159.7
90.5
90.8
90.6
90.0
87.1
85.0
84.3
84.8
1.42
1.28
1.08
1.12
1.21
1.41
1.45
9.07
8.00
8.29
7.16
8.11
7.57
7.44
Housing starts, private (millions A. R.)
Sales new U.S.-made autos (millions,
A. R.)
.92
8.19
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
July 16, 1969
CHANGES IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
AND RELATED ITEMS
1968
I
II
In
----------------
Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
19.2
27.0
20.0
23.4
15.2
10.2
GNP in constant (1958) dollars
Final sales
Private
9.8
17.0
12.5
5.0
1.7
13.1
III
7.0
9.5
9.6
In
I
1969
III
IIp
billions of dollars-----------------
16.1
12.8
8.6
17.7
20.4
16.3
-----------------
IV
5.7
2.7
1.3
16.2
20.1
16.8
4.6
8.2
7.8
16.4
13.5
11.0
4.2
1.9
2.5
per cent per year-----------------
Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
9.4
13.4
12.9
11.2
7.3
6.4
8.2
9.6
10.0
7.4
5.9
5.2
7.3
9.1
9.9
7.2
6.0
6.4
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
14.3
22.9
17.2
8.5
7.5
11.6
4.2
9.1
11.0
19.6
8.4
10.5
4.3
2.3
1.7
7.6
8.2
9.7
7.3
8.5
6.2
9.0
3.4
8.2
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
Business fixed investment
-12.7
-2.8
19.3
24.1
-4.4
-5.3
7.9
27.8
26.8
15.4
3.9
17.6
16.6
10.3
11.2
9.5
19.9
9.5
8.3
7.7
4.6
19.0
9.3
8.3
4.0
2.5
7.2
12.2
4.8
6.4
-1.2 -3.9
-1.5 -1.5
1.8 -12.4
14.1 12.5
3.9
5.5
7.0
4.3
3.2
1.5
0.9
4.1
2.5
4.6
5.6
4.7
2.4
1.1
1.8
4.8
-23.8
-12.1
13.9
-10.8
11.3
Gov't purchases of goods & services
Federal
Defense
Other
State & local
25.4
18.1
GNP in constant (1958) dollars 1/
Final sales
Private
GNP implicit deflatorl/
5.7
10.1
9.8
3.6
7.2
2.9
1.2
Personal income
Wages and salaries
Disposable income
11.4
9.5
9.6
8.6
9.4
10.2
4.1
8.7
9.7
7.3
7.4
9.3
4.2
9.0
8.8
8.1
Corporate profits before tax
16.6
12.7
3.5
13.1
4.2
n.a.
Federal government receipts and
expenditures (N.I.A. basis)
Receipts
Expenditures
23.8
12.6
12.3
14.2
24.8
8.7
13.0
6.9
23.1
3.4
n.a.
3.2
3.6
2.0
3.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
3.5
2.0
2.4
29.7
27.1
5.3
14.5
-8.5
Nonfarm payroll employment
Manufacturing
Industrial production
Housing starts, private
Sales new U.S.-made autos
15.0
12.0
8.0
10.7
10.9
6.0
15.5
40.6
3.9
5.2
-16.3
12.0
1/ Per cent per year changes based on unpublished unrounded data.
4.7
4.0
6.7
28.2
-20.4
2.9
0.0
6.1
-49.2
8.4
NOT FOR PUBLICATION.
IV
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
July 16, 1969
CHANGES IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
AND RELATED ITEMS
1967
1966
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
----------------- In billions of dollars---------------Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
19.5
17.9
13.2
13.8
8.9
3.5
12.6
16.9
9.6
14.8
6.8
2.3
3.5
14.4
5.4
GNP in constant (1958) dollars
Final sales
Private
12.5
11.1
8.1
5.9
1.2
-1.7
5.2
9.5
5.1
7.9
0.4
-2.5
-1.6
8.5
2.5
9.3
15.0
10.7
4.0
9.4
6.9
16.9
12.4
9.6
7.5
3.3
3.0
15.7
14.0
8.9
5.5
4.1
2.8
----------------- In per cent per year-----------------6.8
9.3
6.7
7.8
3.7
1.6
3.6
-15.2
7.5
6.5
8.1
16.3
6.2
7.1
2.8
3.4
-1.0
6.9
5.4
-10.6
7.8
8.7
15.2
0.0
13.6
16.7
-20.4
7.6
-9.1
-20.0
13.4
22.1
-42.1
5.8
-39.9
-12.7
-4.3
13.1
15.4
21.3
-2.3
10.9
14.6
15.4
23.1
-6.9
13.3
19.0
25.9
32.8
0.0
12.4
Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
11.0
10.2
9.5
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
9.3
13.4
9.7
7.1
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
Business fixed investment
Gov't purchases of goods & services
Federal
Defense
Other
State & local
GNP in constant (1958) dollars1/
Final sales
Private
/
GNP implicit deflatorl
7.6
5.0
2.5
-16.3
14.5
21.8
27.8
26.2
33.9
16.4
4.8
0.2
-1.9
3.0
3.6
0.7
-1.3
3.9
8.6
6.4
6.4
7.8
7.1
5.8
7.4
20.0
2.2
8.3
4.8
-1.1
2.6
9.5
5.6
10.4
1.9
7.7
-14.8
31.8
-1.4
30.3
58.9
2,4
19.0
34.7
7.2
4.8
7.8
7.2
9.9
11.4
11.4
11.2
7.9
-0.9
5.2
1.9
2.8
11.2
7.9
14.5
11.3
9.6
8.8
10.9
12.9
6.7
5.7
6.7
8.5
8.6
6.8
Corporate profits before tax
6.3
1.4
6.2
Federal government receipts and
expenditures (N.I.A. basis)
Receipts
Expenditures
28.3
20.2
14.7
10.1
11.0
23.4
Nonfarm payroll employment
Manufacturing
n.a.
8.7
5.7
8.5
4.4
4.2
Industrial production
Housing starts, private
Sales new U.S.-made autos
14.1
-20.0
19.6
7.9
6.2
-41.9 -61.8
-47.3 14.6
-10.8
4.7
12.6
4.1
-59.7
-5.0
cent per year changes based on unpublished unrounded data.
4.5
4.4
5.4
7.9
8.4
6.4
7.2
9.4
6.9
-23.1
3.6
2.0
24.7
1.4
22.2
2.2
4.8
10.0
9.7
11.6
8.5
3.1
2.0
7.3
10.4
4.9
Personal income
Wages and salaries
Disposable income
-/Per
1.8
7.7
3.7
1.2
-4.1
1.8
0.0
3.6
2.1
-5.3
87.7
-50.1
-3.1
32.2
53.2
3.1
65.9
-26.9
NOT FOR PUBLICATION
6.4
10.8
-6.8
July 16, 1969
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND RELATED ITEMS
(Expenditures and income figures are billions of dollars.)
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
520.1
518.1
410.5
560.3
554.3
437.2
590.5
584.6
462.1
632.4
626.6
497.9
684.9
675.3
538.3
749.9
735.1
578.3
793.5
786.2
613.4
865.7
858.4
665.4
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
335.2
44.2
155.9
135.1
355.1
49.5
162.6
143.0
375.0
53.9
168.6
152.4
401.2
59.2
178.7
163.3
432.8
66.3
191.1
175.5
466.3
70.8
206.9
188.6
492.3
73.0
215.1
204.2
536.6
83.3
230.6
222.8
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
Business fixed investment
Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
71.7
22.6
47.0
2.0
1.7
83.0
25.3
51.7
6.0
5.3
87.1
27.0
54.3
5.9
5.1
94.0
27.1
61.1
5.8
6.4
108.1
27.2
71.3
9.6
8.6
121.4
25.0
81.6
14.8
15.0
116.0
25.0
83.7
7.4
6.8
126.3
30.2
88.8
7.3
7.4
8.5
6.9
5.3
5.2
Net Exports
5.6
5.1
5.9
2.5
Gov't. purchases of goods & services
Federal
Defense
Other
State & local
107.6
57.4
47.8
9.6
50.2
117.1
63.4
51.6
11.8
53.7
122.5
64.2
50.8
13.5
58.2
128.7
65.2
50.0
15.2
63.5
137.0
66.9
50.1
16.8
70.1
156.8
77.8
60.7
17.1
79.0
180.1
90.7
72.4
18.4
89.3
200.3
99.5
78.0
21.5
100.7
Gross national product in
constant (1958) dollars
GNP implicit deflator (1958=100)
497.2
104.6
529.8
105.8
551.0
107.2
581.1
108.8
617.8
110.9
658.1
113.9
674.6
117.6
707.6
122.3
Personal income
Wages and salaries
Disposable income
Personal saving
Saving rate (per cent)
416.8
278.1
364.4
21.2
5.8
442.6
296.1
385.3
21.6
5.6
465.5
311.1
404.6
19.9
4.9
497.5
333.7
438.1
26.2
6.0
538.9
358.9
473.2
28.4
6.0
587.2
394.5
511.9
32.5
6.4
629.4
423.5
546.5
40.4
7.4
687.9
465.0
590.0
38.4
6.5
50.3
55.4
59.4
77.8
84.2
80.3
91.1
98.3
102.1
-3.8
106.5
110.3
-3.8
114.5
113.9
0.6
Total labor force (millions)
"
Armed forces
Civilian labor force "
Unemployment rate (per cent)
73.0
2.6
70.5
6.7
73.4
2.8
70.6
5.5
Nonfarm payroll employment (millions)
Manufacturing
54.0
16.3
55.6
16.9
Industrial production (1957-59=100)
Capacity utilization, manufacturing
(per cent)
109.7
118.3
78.5
Corporate profits before tax
Federal government receipts and
expenditures (N.I.A. basis)
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit (-)
Housing starts, private (millions A.R.)
Sales new U.S.-made autos (millions,
A.R.)
66.8
115.0
118.1
-3.0
124.7
123.5
1.2
142.5
142.8
-0.2
151.1
163.8
-12.7
176.3
181.5
-5.2
74.6
2.7
71.8
5.7
75.8
2.7
73.1
5.2
77.2
2.7
74.5
4.5
78.9
3.1
75.8
3.8
80.8
3.4
77.3
3.8
82.3
3.5
78.7
3.6
56.7
17.0
58.3
17.3
60.8
18.1
64.0
19.2
65.9
19.4
67.9
19.8
124.3
132.3
143.4
156.3
158.1
164.7
82.1
83.3
85.7
88.5
90.5
85.3
84.5
1.31
1.46
1.61
1.53
1.47
1.17
1.29
1.51
5.56
6.75
7.33
7.62
8.76
8.38
7.57
8.62
July 16,
CONFIDENTIAL - FR
CHANGES
1969
IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
AND RELATED ITEMS
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
--------------
16.4
17.9
9.9
Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
GNP in constant (1958)
Final sales
Private
dollars
In billions of dollars-----------------
40.2
36.2
26.7
30.2
30.3
24.9
41.9
42.0
35.8
52.5
48.7
40.4
65.0
59.8
40.0
43.6
51.1
35.1
72.2
72.2
52.0
9.5
11.0
5.4
32.6
28.6
21.6
21.2
21.4
19.3
30.1
30.0
28.4
36.7
33.6
30.1
40.3
35.4
23.6
16.5
23.5
10.0
33.0
33.3
24.9
---------Gross National Product
Final sales
Private
In per cent per year-------------------
3.3
3.6
2.5
7.7
7.0
6.5
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
3.1
-2.4
3.0
5.0
5.9
12.0
4.3
5.8
Gross private domestic investment
Residential construction
Business fixed investment
-4.1
-2.9
15.8
11.9
10.0
4.9
6.7
5.0
7.9
0.4
12.5
15.0
0.4
16.7
12.3
-8.1
14.4
-4.4
0.0
2.6
8.9
20.8
6.1
Gov't purchases of goods & services
Federal
Defense
Other
State & local
8.0
7.3
6.5
11.6
8.9
8.8
10.5
7.9
22.9
7.0
4.6
1.3
-1.6
14.4
8.4
5.1
1.6
-1.6
12.6
9.1
6.4
2.6
0.2
10.5
10.4
14.5
16.3
21.2
1.8
12.7
14.9
16.6
19.3
7.6
13.0
11.2
9.7
7.7
16.8
12.8
GNP in constant (1958) dollars
Final sales
Private
GNP implicit deflator
1.9
2.3
1.4
1.3
6.6
5.8
5.5
1.1
4.0
4.1
4.6
1.3
5.5
5.5
6.5
1.5
6.3
5.8
6.5
1.9
6.5
5.8
4.8
2.7
2.5
3.6
1.9
3.2
4.9
5.0
4.7
4.0
Personal income
Wages and salaries
Disposable income
3.9
2.7
4.1
6.2
6.5
5.7
5.2
5.1
5.0
6.9
7.3
8.3
8.3
7.6
8.0
9.0
9.9
8.2
7.2
7.4
6.8
9.3
9.8
8.0
Corporate profits before tax
1.2
10.1
7.2
12.5
16.5
8.1
-4.6
13.4
Federal government receipts and
expenditures (N.I.A. basis)
Receipts
Expenditures
1.9
9.8
8.3
8.0
7.5
3.3
0.4
3.7
8.4
4.6
14.3
15.6
6.0
14.7
16.7
10.8
Nonfarm payroll employment
Manufacturing
-0.4
-3.0
3.0
3.7
2.0
0.6
2.8
1.8
4.3
4.6
5.3
6.1
3.0
1.0
3.0
2.1
Industrial production
Housing starts, private
Sales new U.S.-made autos
0.9
4.9
-9.5
7.8
11.4
21.5
-0.9
5.4
5.5
5.7
7.1
7.2
7.7
8.3
7.8
8.1
9.5
8.9
7.4
5.8
7.0
6.1
7.9
12.0
6.9
7.5
5.1
10.1
8.6
6.4
-5.0
3.9
8.4
-3.7
15.1
9.1
9.2
8.5
9.0
14.1
7.2
9.1
9.0
-20.9
-4.4
1.2
10.9
-9.7
4.2
16.7
14.0
@FedFRASER