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Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on April 2728, 2010.
FOMC Minutes | Summary of Economic Projections

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic
projections, 2010-12 and over the longer run
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2010 through 2012 and over the
longer run. Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. The data for the actual values of the
variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.
Change in real GDP
Percent
 

2005
Actual
2.7
Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range
-

2006
2.4
-

2007
2.5
-

2008
-1.9
-

2009
0.1
-

2010
4.0
3.7
3.2
2.7

2011
4.6
4.5
3.4
3.0

2012
5.0
4.5
3.5
2.8

Longer Run
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.4

2006
4.5
-

2007
4.8
-

2008
6.9
-

2009
10.0
-

2010
9.7
9.5
9.1
8.6

2011
8.7
8.5
8.1
7.2

2012
7.7
7.5
6.6
6.4

Longer Run
6.3
5.3
5.0
5.0

Unemployment rate
Percent
 

2005
Actual
5.0
Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range
-

PCE inflation
Percent

 

2005
Actual
3.3
Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range
-

2006
1.9
-

2007
3.6
-

2008
1.7
-

2009
1.2
-

2010
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.1

2011
2.4
1.9
1.1
0.9

2012
2.2
2.0
1.2
0.7

2006
2.3
-

2007
2.5
-

2008
2.0
-

2009
1.5
-

2010
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.7

2011
2.4
1.5
1.0
0.6

Longer Run
2.0
2.0
1.7
1.5

2012
2.2
1.6
1.2
0.6

Core PCE inflation
Percent
 

2005
Actual
2.3
Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range
-

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the
change in real GDP, 2010-12 and over the longer run
Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Number of Participants
2010
Percent range
April
January
projections projections
2.2 - 2.3
0
1
2.4 - 2.5
0
2
2.6 - 2.7
1
0
2.8 - 2.9
0
1
3.0 - 3.1
1
3
3.2 - 3.3
4
1
3.4 - 3.5
2
7
3.6 - 3.7
7
1
3.8 - 3.9
1
0
4.0 - 4.1
1
1
4.2 - 4.3
0
0
4.4 - 4.5
0
0

2011
April
January
projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
0
1
2
4
3
6
6

2012
April
January
projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
3
3
1
1
5
5

Longer Run
April
January
projections projections
0
0
8
8
3
3
5
5
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

4.6 - 4.7
4.8 - 4.9
5.0 - 5.1

0
0
0

0
0
0

1
0
0

2
0
0

1
1
1

0
2
1

0
0
0

0
0
0

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the
unemployment rate, 2010-12 and over the longer run
Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Number of Participants
2010
Percent range
April
January
projections projections
4.8 - 4.9
0
0
5.0 - 5.1
0
0
5.2 - 5.3
0
0
5.4 - 5.5
0
0
5.6 - 5.7
0
0
5.8 - 5.9
0
0
6.0 - 6.1
0
0
6.2 - 6.3
0
0
6.4 - 6.5
0
0
6.6 - 6.7
0
0
6.8 - 6.9
0
0
7.0 - 7.1
0
0
7.2 - 7.3
0
0
7.4 - 7.5
0
0
7.6 - 7.7
0
0
7.8 - 7.9
0
0

2011
April
January
projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1

2012
April
January
projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
2
3
2
0
2
5
3
3
2
2
3
2
2
0
0

Longer Run
April
January
projections projections
0
1
10
10
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

8.0 - 8.1
8.2 - 8.3
8.4 - 8.5
8.6 - 8.7
8.8 - 8.9
9.0 - 9.1
9.2 - 9.3
9.4 - 9.5
9.6 - 9.7
9.8 - 9.9

3
7
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
0
3
8
4
1
0

0
0
0
1
0
0
1
9
5
0

1
6
5
2
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

10.0 - 10.1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE
inflation, 2010-12 and over the longer run
Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Number of Participants
2010
2011
2012
Longer Run
Percent range
April
January
April
January
April
January
April
January
projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections
0.7 - 0.8
0.9 - 1.0
1.1 - 1.2
1.3 - 1.4
1.5 - 1.6
1.7 - 1.8
1.9 - 2.0
2.1 - 2.2
2.3 - 2.4

0
0
5
7
3
1
1
0
0

0
0
2
7
2
4
2
0
0

0
3
1
3
4
2
2
1
1

0
1
4
2
3
3
3
0
1

1
1
2
1
6
1
3
2
0

1
1
0
2
6
2
5
0
0

0
0
0
0
3
2
12
0
0

Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core
PCE inflation, 2010-12
Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Number of Participants
2010
Percent range
April
January
projections projections
0.5 - 0.6
0
0
0.7 - 0.8
3
0
0.9 - 1.0
7
1
1.1 - 1.2
5
9
1.3 - 1.4
0
3
1.5 - 1.6
2
0
1.7 - 1.8
0
2

2011
April
January
projections projections
1
0
0
0
4
5
4
2
4
3
1
3
0
0

2012
April
January
projections projections
1
0
0
1
1
1
4
5
3
1
5
3
0
2

0
0
0
0
3
2
12
0
0

1.9 - 2.0
2.1 - 2.2
2.3 - 2.4

0
0
0

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2
0
0

1
1
1

3
0
1

2
1
0

4
0
0