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Embargoed for release at 2:15 p.m., EDT, April 27, 2011 Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, April 2011 Advance release of table 1 of the Summary of Economic Projections to be released with the FOMC minutes on May 18, 2011 Percent Variable Central tendency1 Range2 2011 2012 2013 Longer run 2011 2012 2013 Longer run Change in real GDP. . . . . . January projection. . . . 3.1 to 3.3 3.4 to 3.9 3.5 to 4.2 3.5 to 4.4 3.5 to 4.3 3.7 to 4.6 2.5 to 2.8 2.5 to 2.8 2.9 to 3.7 3.2 to 4.2 2.9 to 4.4 3.4 to 4.5 3.0 to 5.0 3.0 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0 2.4 to 3.0 Unemployment rate. . . . . . January projection. . . . 8.4 to 8.7 8.8 to 9.0 7.6 to 7.9 7.6 to 8.1 6.8 to 7.2 6.8 to 7.2 5.2 to 5.6 5.0 to 6.0 8.1 to 8.9 8.4 to 9.0 7.1 to 8.4 7.2 to 8.4 6.0 to 8.4 6.0 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.0 5.0 to 6.2 PCE inflation. . . . . . . . . . . January projection. . . . 2.1 to 2.8 1.3 to 1.7 1.2 to 2.0 1.0 to 1.9 1.4 to 2.0 1.2 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.6 to 2.0 2.0 to 3.6 1.0 to 2.0 1.0 to 2.8 0.7 to 2.2 1.2 to 2.5 0.6 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 1.5 to 2.0 Core PCE inflation3. . . . . . January projection. . . . 1.3 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.3 1.3 to 1.8 1.0 to 1.5 1.4 to 2.0 1.2 to 2.0 1.1 to 2.0 0.7 to 1.8 1.1 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.0 1.2 to 2.0 0.6 to 2.0 NOTE: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The January projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on January 25-26, 2011. 1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. 2. The range for a variable in a given year consists of all participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. 3. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.
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