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APPENDIX Notes for FOMC Meeting April 17, 1979 Scott E. Pardee (read by Alan Holmes) Since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar has been in strong demand against the German mark, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The heaviest selling pressure has been on the yen, which fell by 4 percent, even though the Bank of Japan sold a total o f . in support of its own currency in Tokyo and through us in New York. The Swiss franc dropped by 2% percent, with the BNS selling a total of again both in its own market and through us in New York. The mark declined by 2 percent and the combined intervention by the Bundesbank and U. S. authorities amounted to In the three currencies intervention totaled $9,425.3 million, one of the largest months on record. The flows of funds have not just been into dollars. Sterling has also been strong, and the Canadian dollar has been well bid, despite uncertainties over elections coming up in both of those countries in May. The comment of market participants is that, for the time being at least, the strong currencies are weak and the weak currencies are strong, even within the EMS. For the dollar, we are clearly in the process of reflux--with massive reflows of interest sensitive funds and a substantial unwinding of the adverse leads and lags of last year. Corporate treasurers and money managers around the world do not perceive much of a downside risk for the dollar at the moment. Again, the improved attitude stems largely from the November 1 program and the policy follow-up, including monetary policy, by the U. S. authorities. In addition, we are beginning to hear some expression of belief that the fundamentals are improving, as viewed from the trade and current account figures released for February by the United States, with a smaller deficit and by Germany and Japan with smaller surpluses. Inflation is still a major problem and for that reason many market participants consider the dollar a potentially weak currency. But we are not alone, since other countries have also had an outburst of inflation. The latest OPEC oil price hikes, with even higher prices in prospect, and the nuclear accident in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, with serious implications for nuclear energy around the world, have been largely interpreted as worse news for others--for Japan and Continental Western Europe--than for us. The President’s energy speech was well received in the exchange markets. For the moment, we look good; but under circumstances of worldwide concern over inflation and energy supplies, market expectations can be highly volatile. We cannot count on the inflows into dollars to continue indefinitely. For the German, Swiss and Japanese authorities. the heavy intervention has had four objectives, with varying degrees of emphasis in each case. First, they are hoping to moderate the rise of the dollar or the fall of their own currencies so that exchange rates 2 are not pushed to levels that overshoot and prove unsustainable later on. We share that objective. Second, they have taken the opportunity to mop up the excess domestic liquidity from last year’s intervention. In fact, in Germany and Switzerland the absorption process had gone so far that the central banks recently had to reverse gears and provide temporary injections of liquidity to their banking systems. I might note that interest rates have risen quite sharply in those countries, both in short- and long-term markets, closing somewhat the differential in favor of dollar placements. Third, each of the central banks is concerned that the decline of their own currency will exacerbate domestic inflation. Last year they were protected from the full effects of external price developments by the appreciation of their currencies against the dollar. This year so far they have not had that luxury because the dollar itself has been rising. Finally, the three central banks believe that we are at last seeing some of the real adjustments of trade and current account balances in response to the currency movements which have taken place since late 1976, to the net appreciation of their currencies and the depreciation of the dollar. This is particularly true of the Bank of Japan. They believe it would be unfortunate to slow or stop that process by starting a J-curve in reverse. The U. S. Treasury agrees, on the view that a sharply rising dollar would erode the competitive advantage we now have as a result o f the net decline of the dollar over recent years. At the Desk our reasons for operating heavily have been two--to repay debt and to avoid a sharp and unsustainable rise in dollar rates. In all during the period the Desk acquired for the U. S. authorities a total of $3.0 billion of currencies. Of this, $2.7 billion was in German marks. These were used to repay $2.68 1.7 million of System swap debt with the Bundesbank and to clear away completely the remaining $58.7 million under the Treasury’s swap line in marks. As ofthis morning the Federal Reserve’s indebtedness in marks amounts to $556.9 million equivalent. In addition, we acquired enough Swiss francs to prepay the last $300 million equivalent of 1971 debt by the System and the Treasury. Mr. Chairman, it is my great pleasure to report that for the first time since August 1970 the Federal Reserve is free and clear of swap debt to the Swiss National Bank. The books on the operations of the early 1970s are closed at last. Finally, we added some $45 million to balances in Swiss francs and an additional $10 million to our yen balances. F.O.M.C. MEETING APRIL 1 7 , 1 9 7 9 R e p o r t i n g on open market o p e r a t i o n s , M r . Sternlight made t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t : R e t a i n i n g t h e s t a n c e adopted i n l a t e 1 9 7 8 , t h e Account Management c o n t i n u e d t h r o u g h t h e p e r i o d s i n c e t h e March 20 meeting t o aim f o r a F e d e r a l f u n d s r a t e around 1 0 p e r c e n t o r s l i g h t l y higher. As i n o t h e r r e c e n t i n t e r m e e t i n g p e r i o d s , e s t i m a t e d growth of t h e a g g r e g a t e s t e n d e d t o weaken a s t h e p e r i o d p r o g r e s s e d - - e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e case of M1. I n e a r l y A p r i l , t h e weakness seemed pronounced enough t o b e g i n r a i s i n g q u e s t i o n s a b o u t t h e D e s k ' s a p p r o a c h , b u t i n t h e C h a i r m a n ' s view, c o n f i r m e d by o t h e r Committee m e m b e r s , t h e weakness w a s n o t so marked a s t o c a l l f o r a change i n t h e System's f u n d s r a t e o b j e c t i v e , and none w a s made. The l a t e s t e s t i m a t e s by t h e Board s t a f f p l a c e d M 1 growth a t a b o u t t h e . bottom of t h e Committee's two-month r a n g e o f t o l e r a n c e and M 2 a t a b o u t t h e m i d d l e of i t s r a n g e . As . it worked o u t , d e s p i t e t h e unchanged o b j e c t i v e , t h e funds r a t e averaged a b i t under 1 0 p e r c e n t f o r t h e p e r i o d . Partly t h i s was because u n e x p e c t e d a b e r r a t i o n s , n o t a b l y o n Wednesday a f t e r n o o n s , t e n d e d t o o c c u r on t h e e a s i e r s i d e . A l s o , w i t h market f a c t o r s t e n d i n g t o p r o v i d e reserves o v e r much of t h e p e r i o d , t h e D e s k was o f t e n i n t h e p o s t u r e of w a i t i n g t o see some e a s i n g d e v e l o p before moving t o c o u n t e r it. F u r t h e r , a downward b i a s was i m p a r t e d t o t h e c u r r e n t week a s t h e money m a r k e t t u r n e d easier l a s t F r i d a y w h i l e t h e D e s k ' s hands w e r e t i e d b e c a u s e t h e Government s e c u r i t i e s market: was e s s e n t i a l l y s h u t down f o r Good F r i d a y . The market has n o t been misled by t h e s e v a r i a t i o n s , however; t h e System is s t i l l s e e n a s a i m i n g a t a f u n d s r a t e of 10 p e r c e n t o r s l i g h t l y h i g h e r . Midway t h r o u g h t h e p e r i o d , t h e d e l a y i n passage of d e b t c e i l i n g l e g i s l a t i o n c a u s e d some e x t r a c o m p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e Desk's r e s e r v e management, and i n t h e a r r a n g e m e n t s f o r r o l l i n g o v e r maturing Treasury i s s u e s . A s p a r t Of i t s c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n n i n g when t h e o l d c e i l i n g was r u n n i n g o u t a t t h e end o f March, t h e Treasury borrowed $2.6 b i l l i o n d i r e c t l y from t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e . Half of t h i s amount w a s r e p a i d a s of A p r i l 2 and t h e b a l a n c e was r e p a i d o v e r t h e n e x t two d a y s o n c e t h e T r e a s u r y was a b l e t o g e t back i n t o t h e market. The T r e a s u r y ' s c a t c h - u p p r o c e s s had t o b e compressed w i t h i n a v e r y s h o r t p e r i o d , w i t h o n e $6 b i l l i o n i s s u e of c a s h management b i l l s r e q u i r i n g payment t h e same day it was a u c t i o n e d . Because of t h a t t i g h t s c h e d u l e , t h e r e was some c o n c e r n t h a t d e a l e r s might n o t be a b l e t o f i n d i n i t i a l f i n a n c i n g f o r t h e i r t a k e d o w n s of t h a t b i l l . And a f t e r g e t t i n g a p p r o v a l from t h i s Committee, t h e Account Management t o l d d e a l e r s t h a t w e would be p r e p a r e d t o f i n a n c e t h e b i l l for t h a t f i r s t d a y , a t t h e r a t e of d i s c o u n t t h e d e a l e r was e a r n i n g , i f t h e r e was u n u s u a l d i f f i c u l t y i n g e t t i n g f i n a n c e d e l s e w h e r e . With t h e h e l p o f t h a t a s s u r a n c e , t h e d e a l e r s b i d r o b u s t l y f o r t h e b i l l , and s i n c e reserves were f a i r l y p l e n t i f u l t h a t day t h e Desk w a s c a l l e d o n t o f i n a n c e o n l y $ 4 0 m i l l i o n t h r o u g h an o v e r n i g h t r e p u r c h a s e agreement. A s i d e from t h e t r a n s a c t i o n s i n s p e c i a l c e r t i f i c a t e s d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e Treasury, t h e System's o u t r i g h t t r a n s a c ti o ns were r e l a t i v e l y modest d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d , and n e t t e d o u t t o a l m o s t no c h a n g e . S a l e s and r e d e m p t i o n s of T r e a s u r y b i l l s amounted t o $850 m i l l i o n , h e l p i n g t o a b s o r b reserves d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d . In t h e l a t t e r p a r t o f t h e i n t e r v a l t h e System bought $ 7 1 5 m i l l i o n of b i l l s from f o r e i g n a c c o u n t s i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r a n t i c i p a t e d r e s e r v e n e e d s i n coming weeks. Meantime, t o d e a l w i t h a l m o s t c o c t i n u a l e x c e s s e s o f reserves, t h e System a r r a n g e d matched s a l e p u r c h a s e t r a n s a c t i o n s d a i l y w i t h f o r e i g n a c c o u n t s and q u i t e f r e q u e n t l y i n t h e m a r k e t as w e l l . I n t h e Government s e c u r i t i e s m a r k e t , most y i e l d s moved somewhat h i g h e r on b a l a n c e o v e r t h e p e r i o d , as e a r l y d e c l i n e s b a s e d i n p a r t on t h e s t a b i l i t y of monetary p o l i c y l a t e r g a v e way t o i n c r e a s e d y i e l d s a s p a r t i c i p a n t s f o c u s e d on i n f l a t i o n , s i g n s o f s t r e n g t h i n t h e economy, and p r e s s s p e c u l a t i o n t h a t t h e System might move t o a firmer p o l i c y . Even w i t h w i d e s p r e a d s p e c u l a t i o n o f t h a t k i n d , however, a number o f p a r t i c i p a n t s f e e l t h a t a more r e s t r i c t i v e s t a n c e would s t r e n g t h e n p r o s p e c t s f o r c o n t a i n i n g i n f l a t i o n so t h e y would view a f i r m i n g a s b e n e f i c i a l t o bond p r i c e s i n t h e l o n g e r r u n . I l l u s t r a t i v e o f t h e market moves, a two-year n o t e was s o l d i n e a r l y ' A p r i l t o y i e l d 9 . 6 8 p e r c e n t , down 1 7 b a s i s p o i n t s from t h e p r e v i o u s two-year a u c t i o n - - b u t by p e r i o d ' s end t h e n o t e s were b i d a t a d i s c o u n t t o y i e l d a b o u t 9.87 p e r c e n t . A 15-year i s s u e , which t h e T r e a s u r y r e o p e n e d t o r a i s e $1.5 b i l l i o n of new c a s h , was up a b o u t 1 0 b a s i s p o i n t s i n y i e l d o v e r t h e p e r i o d and t h e l o n g e s t T r e a s u r y i s s u e s r o s e about 5 - 8 basis p o i n t s . I n d i c a t i v e of t h e i r c a u t i o u s o u t l o o k , d e a l e r s t y p i c a l l y m a i n t a i n e d a n e t s h o r t p o s i t i o n i n coupon i s s u e s m a t u r i n g i n over one y e a r , e x c e p t when u n d e r w r i t i n g new s u p p l i e s from t h e Treasury--and quickly. even t h e n t h e y s o u g h t t o l i g h t e n up a g a i n Most b i l l r a t e s a l s o r o s e o v e r t h e p a s t month, a f t e r f i r s t e d g i n g down toward t h e end of March when s u p p l i e s were t h i n n e d o u t p a r t l y b e c a u s e of t h e d e l a y i n d e b t c e i l i n g l e g i s l a t i o n . In early A p r i l , t h e T r e a s u r y s o l d no l e s s t h a n $ 1 3 b i l l i o n of s h o r t b i l l s t o r a i s e new c a s h i n a h i g h l y c o n c e n t r a t e d p e r i o d . Meantime, t h e Desk was i n t h e market a l m o s t d a i l y t o s e l l b i l l s f o r f o r e i g n a c c o u n t s as t h e d o l l a r s t r e n g t h e n e d . Desk sales o f b i l l s f o r f o r e i g n a c c o u n t s i n t h e m a r k e t came t o a n e t of $ 5 . 5 b i l l i o n over t h e p e r i o d . The m a r k e t s t o o d up w e l l t o t h i s s u p p l y , b u t almost i n e v i t a b l y t h e r e w a s a rise i n r a t e s a s e a r l i e r s c a r c i t i e s g a v e way t o abundance and f i n a n c i n g c o s t s pushed h i g h e r . I n d i c a t i v e o f t h e t r e n d , 3- and 6- month b i l l s were a u c t i o n e d y e s t e r d a y a t 9 . 6 1 and 9 . 6 3 p e r c e n t , compared w i t h 9 . 5 0 and 9 . 4 8 p e r c e n t t h e d a y b e f o r e t h e l a s t m e e t i n g . Dealers s t i l l h o l d a s i z a b l e chunk of t h e b i l l s s o l d i n e a r l y A p r i l , b u t some o f t h e s e i s s u e s m a t u r e w i t h i n a few d a y s and t h i s s h o u l d relieve financing pressures. T r e a s u r y f i n a n c i n g o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e n e x t month w i l l i n c l u d e t h e q u a r t e r l y r e f u n d i n g t o be announced a wsek from tomorrow. The p u b l i c h o l d s a r e l a t i v e l y modest $1.1 b i l l i o n o f i s s u e s m a t u r i n g i n mid-May, b u t t h e T r e a s u r y may t a k e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o r a i s e a t least t h a t much a g a i n i n t h e m a r k e t . The System Account h o l d s $550 m i l l i o n of t h e maturing n o t e s , also r e l a t i v e l y modest. In the recent p a s t , w e have exchanged o u r h o l d i n g s f o r new i s s u e s i n a b o u t t h e p r o p o r t i o n s t h o s e i s s u e s are o f f e r e d t o t h e p u b l i c . Since t h e average m a t u r i t y of t h e System's p o r t f o l i o h a s in c r e a s e d f a s t e r t h a n t h e a v e r a g e m a t u r i t y o f a l l T r e a s u r y d e b t i n t h e p a s t y e a r , I would p l a n on t h i s and s u b s e q u e n t q u a r t e r l y r o l l o v e r s t o d i r e c t a somewhat g r e a t e r than p r o p o r t i o n a t e s h a r e of t h e S y s t e m ' s s u b s c r i p t i o n toward whatever s h o r t e r o p t i o n s a r e o f f e r e d . James L. K i c h l i n e April 1 7 , 1979 FOMC B R I E F I N G Economic a c t i v i t y was m a i n t a i n e d a t a h i g h l e v e l i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r b u t a p p a r e n t l y grew r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e f o l l o w i n g year-end. To some e x t e n t , s l o w e r e x p a n s i o n of a c t i v i t y was a t t r i b u t a b l e t o weather e f f e c t s , w h i c h w i l l tend t o boost a c t i v i t y i n the c u r r e n t q u a r t e r . However, o u r r e a d i n g of the a v a i l a b l e e v i d e n c e s t i l l s u g g e s t s a c o n s i d e r a b l e moderation of r e a l growth of GNP i s i n s t o r e f o r t h e f i r s t h a l f of t h i s y e a r . In g e n e r a l incoming i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e r e a l economy s i n c e t h e l a s t m e e t i n g of t h e Committee h a s been i n l i n e w i t h our e x p e c t a t i o n s , o r weaker. One e x c e p t i o n h a s been the l a b o r market r e p o r t f o r Narch which i n d i c a t e d s u r p r i s i n g l y l a r g e growth of employment. Nonfarm employment r o s e 325,000 w i t h g a i n s widespread among i n d u s t r i e s , and t h e unemployment r a t e remained a t 5 - 3 / 4 p e r c e n t . On a v e r a g e , p a y r o l l employment i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r i n c r e a s e d a t about t h e same s t r o n g pace a s o v e r t h e p a s t two y e a r s . I n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r employment i n c r e a s e s were e s p e c i a l l y s i z a b l e and by f a r o u t r a n i n c r e a s e s i n production--which s u g g e s t s a l a r g e d r o p i n produc- t i v i t y f o r the f i r s t quarter. I n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n i n March p i c k e d up, f o l l o w i n g two months of l i t t l e change. Growth of p r o d u c t i o n was i n f l u e n c e d i m p o r t a n t l y by expansion of o u t p u t i n t h e a u t o , s t e e l , and c o a l i n d u s t r i e s , a r e a s where o u t p u t had d e c l i n e d e a r l i e r i n the y e a r . For t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r a s a whole i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n r o s e a b o u t 4 - 1 1 2 p e r c e n t a t an a n n u a l r a t e o r l i t t l e more t h a n h a l f t h e pace i n t h e second h a l f of l a s t y e a r . The rebound of o u t p u t i n March l e d t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e , which r e a t t a i n e d t h e l e v e l p r e v a i l i n g i n December. In t h e n e x t c o u p l e of months i t seems l i k e l y t h a t c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e s c o u l d r i s e -2s l i g h t l y f u r t h e r , b u t we a n t i c i p a t e t h e c u r r e n t q u a r t e r w i l l b e t h e high w a t e r mark g i v e n p r o j e c t e d weaker o u t p u t growth o v e r t h e b a l a n c e of t h e f o r e c a s t period. F i n a l s a l e s i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r a r e e s t i m a t e d t o have d e c l i n e d f o l l o w i n g e x c e p t i o n a l growth i n t h e f o u r t h q u a r t e r . In p a r t i c u l a r , p e r s o n a l consumption e x p e n d i t u r e s have been weak s o f a r t h i s y e a r . Total r e t a i l s a l e s i n nominal terms r o s e 1 p e r c e n t i n March, b u t i n r e a l terms probably were l i t t l e changed a f t e r c o n s i d e r a b l e d e c l i n e s i n b o t h January and February. Although s a l e s i n a number of a r e a s rebounded i n March, a u t o s a l e s were n o t a b l y str0n.g w i t h g a i n s f o r both imports and f u e l - e f f i c i e n t small cars. Our f o r e c a s t of a c t i v i t y i n t h e second q u a r t e r h a s b u i l t in an e s p e c t a t i o n of s i z a b l e monthly r e t a i l s a l e s g a i n s , f i n a n c e d p a r t l y by a reduction i n the already low savings rate. With f i n a l s a l e s e s t i m a t e d t o have d e c l i n e d i n t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r , a l l of t h e growth i n GNP w a s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o i n v e n t o r y i n v e s t m e n t . Additional i n f o r m a t i o n on i n v e n t o r i e s s i n c e t h e l a s t meeting of t h e C o m i t t e e h a s tended t o dampen--although n o t e l i m i n a t e - - c o n c e r n s t h a t b u s i n e s s a t t i t u d e s had changed and p e r h a p s i n v e n t o r y s t o c k p i l i n g r e m i n i s c e n t of 1973-74 was under way. Inventory i n v e s t m e n t f i g u r e s f o r January and F e b r u a r y have tended t o b e lowered a b i t in r e v i s e d d a t a , and r e t a i l t r a d e i n v e n t o r i e s a r e r e p o r t e d t o have dropped a p p r e c i a b l y i n F e b r u a r y - - i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e s i n c e t h e f o r e c a s t was p r e p a r e d . Ploreover, a broad range of f a c t o r s i s l i k e l y t o have much more e x p l a n a t o r y power t h a n s p e c u l a t i v e s t o c k p i l i n g ; t h e s e f a c t o r s i n c l u d e d e s i r e d r e s t o c k i n g f o l l o w i n g i n v e n t o r y drawdowns i n t h e f o u r t h q u a r t e r , w e a t h e r e f f e c t s which t e m p o r a r i l y added t o i n v e n t o r i e s , i n v o l u n t a r y accumulation i n some a u t o models, hedging a g a i n s t Teamsters and rubber worker s t r i k e s , and growth of i n v e n t o r i e s r e l a t e d t o GM X body c a r s . Given t h e -3 - t r a n s i t o r y n a t u r e of most of t h e s e f a c t o r s , we b e l i e v e t h a t i n v e n t o r y accumul a t i o n w i l l n o t be adding t o growth of economic a c t i v i t y t h i s q u a r t e r . In t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n and b u s i n e s s c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t a r e a the f o r e c a s t i n c o r p o r a t e s a s t r o n g e r p a t t e r n of spending i n t h e second q u a r t e r t h a n i n the first. Housing s t a r t s d a t a f o r March w i l l b e a v a i l a b l e l a t e r today, b u t we have assumed a s t r o n g pickup from t h e w e a t h e r - d e p r e s s e d February pace. However, t h e r e a r e numerous q u a n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e r e p o r t s a v a i l a b l e t h a t s u g g e s t r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i s b a s i c a l l y on a downward p a t h . B u s i n e s s f i x e d investment i s s t i l l e x p e c t e d t o p r o v i d e major s u p p o r t t o a c t i v i t y i n t h e n e a r term, b u t h e r e t o o o u r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h e a v a i l a b l e e v i d e n c e h a s n o t caused u s t o change s i g n i f i c a n t l y t h e f o r e c a s t of slower growth i n t h e second h a l f of t h e y e a r and i n t o 1980. On a v e r a g e , r e a l growth i n t h e f i r s t h a l f of t h i s y e a r i s now e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e r o u g h l y 2 p e r c e n t a t an a n n u a l r a t e , about 112 p e r c e n t age p o i n t less than a month ago. Beyond t h e c u r r e n t q u a r t e r l i t t l e change was made i n the f o r e c a s t , w h i c h shows s l u g g i s h r e a l growth and a n e a s i n g of p r e s s u r e s on c a p i t a l and l a b o r r e s o u r c e s . On t h e i n f l a t i o n s i d e t h e o u t l o o k h a s d e t e r i o r a t e d and w e have made f u r t h e r upward a d j u s t m e n t s t o t h e f o r e c a s t . The i n f l a t i o n p i c t u r e i s i n f l u e n c e d i m p o r t a n t l y , a l t h o u g h n o t e n t i r e l y , by developments i n t h e food Expected food p r i c e i n c r e a s e s in the f i r s t h a l f of 1979 and energy s e c t o r s . w e r e r a i s e d once a g a i n , mainly b e c a u s e of t h e beef s i t u a t i o n . Mhile c a t t l e p r i c e s have c o n t i n u e d t o i n c r e a s e o v e r t h e p a s t few weeks, t h e r e i s n o n e t h e - l e s s emerging evidence of some p o s s i b l e s l a c k e n i n g i n t o t a l food p r i c e i n f l a t i o n g i v e n r e c e n t d e c l i n e s i n p r i c e s of hogs, b r o i l e r s , and some f r u i t s and v e g e t a b l e s . We a r e c o u n t i n g on s u c h developments t o g i v e u s some p r i c e r e l i e f l a t e r t h i s year. A s i t now s t a n d s t h e s t a f f ' s f o r e c a s t of f o o d p r i c e s e n t a i l s a 1 2 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e from t h e f o u r t h q u a r t e r of 1978 t o t h e ... ~ ~ ~~ .. ~ -4- f o u r t h q u a r t e r of 1979, o r a b o u t 2 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s h i g h e r than the t o p end of t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e ' s r e c e n t f o r e c a s t . If our f o r e c a s t f o r t h i s y e a r i s r e a l i z e d , t o t a l food p r i c e s i n 1978 and 1979 t o g e t h e r w i l l have i n c r e a s e d about one-fourth, a budget-wrenching performance. I n t h e energy a r e a , t h i s month we have i n c o r p o r a t e d t h e assumption of phased d e c o n t r o l of domestic crude o i l p r i c e s , a s announced by t h e Administrat i o n ' s plan. The d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s of d e c o n t r o l a r e e s t i m a t e d t o i n c r e a s e t h e g r o s s b u s i n e s s p r o d u c t d e f l a t o r by a b o u t o n e - h a l f p e r c e n t over the n e x t s i x q u a r t e r s , a l i t t l e more t h a n t h a t e s t i m a t e d by t h e A d m i n i s r r a t i o n . The impact of d e c o n t r o l a l o n g w i t h a c t u a l and assumed OPEC p r i c e s , e a r l i e r n a t u r a l g a s d e c o n t r o l a c t i o n s and o t h e r f a c t o r s h a s l e d u s t o f o r e c a s t an i n c r e a s e of t o t a l energy p r i c e s t h i s y e a r of a b o u t 18 p e r c e n t . P u t t i n g a l l the p i e c e s of the p r i c e s i t u a t i o n t o g e t h e r w e a n t i c i p a t e a n i n c r e a s e of t h e g r o s s b u s i n e s s p r o d u c t f i x e d weight d e f l a t o r of a b o u t 9 - 1 / 4 p e r c e n t t h i s y e a r , 112 p e r c e n t more t h a n a month ago. This f o r e c a s t i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h some v i s i b l e r e l i e f from t h e c u r r e n t pace of d o u b l e - d i g i t i n f l a t i c n , b u t p r o b a b l y n o t u n t i l a t l e a s t i n t o the summer months. FOMC B r i e f i n g S. K . Axilrod 4/11/19 The m o n e t a r y a g g r e g a t e s a r e c o n t i n u i n g t o b e h a v e q u i t e s l u g g i s h l y , and a r e r u n n i n g below t h e FOMC's l o n g - r u n t a r g e t s , b u t OUT estimate of t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r r a t e of i n f l a t i o n , n o t t o mention p r o j e c t i o n s o f f u t u r e i n f l a t i o n r a t e s , c o n t i n u e s t o be r e v i s e d upwards. Meanwhile, r e a l economic a c t i v i t y i s p r o j e c t e d t o b e q u i t e weak. T h u s , t h e r e a r e c o n f l i c t i n g t e n d e n c i e s i n t h e b e h a v i o r of money, p r i c e s , and o u t p u t t h a t make t h e Conunittee's d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g t h i s morning e s p e c i a l l y d i f f i c u l t . The s l u g g i s h monetary growth seems t o b e q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e s t a f f ' s p r o j e c t i o n o f a marked s l o w i n g i n t h e demand f o r goods and s e r v i c e s o v e r t h e b a l a n c e o f t h e y e a r . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e c e n t slow money growth r a t e s have b e e n q u i t e s u f f i c i e n t t o f i n a n c e a r i s i n g r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n and s i z a b l e e x p a n s i o n i n nominal GNP. T h i s might s u g g e s t t h a t t h e c o m m i t t e e ' s t a r g e t s f o r t h e a g g r e g a t e s d o n o t a d e q u a t e l y r e f l e c t changes t h a t have b e e n o c c u r r i n g i n t h e p u b l i c ' s a t t i t u d e s towards c a s h and l i q u i d i t y . I n o t h e r words, t h e Committee's t a r g e t s may u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e downward s h i f t i n money demand t h a t i s i n train. These i s s u e s h a v e b e e n d i s c u s s e d w i t h t h e C o m i t t e e f o r some t i m e now, and I w i l l n o t t r y your p a t i e n c e by r e p e a t i n g a l l o f t h e arguments. However a few o b s e r v a t i o n s may b e u s e f u l . The income v e l o c i t y o f M - 1 r o s e u n u s u a l l y r a p i d l y i n t h e f o u r t h q u a r t e r o f 1978 and t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r o f 1 9 7 9 - - a t 13 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y . And o u r p r o j e c t i o n s s u g g e s t a f u r t h e r 1% p e r c e n t r i s e i n t h e second q u a r t e r . numbers a r e f a r above t r e n d . a n n u a l r a t e s o f 10 and Even a f t e r s u b t r a c t i n g ATS e f f e c t s , t h e s e Moreover, s i n c e i n t e r e s t r a t e s have n o t r i s e n -2- s i n c e December, t h e r e i s l i t t l e r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h a t t h e r i s e i n velocity represents--as i t o f t e n has i n t h e past--an e f f o r t by t h e p u b l i c t o a d j u s t t o an i n c r e a s i n g l y r e s t r i c t i v e monetary s i t u a t i o n . Thus, t h e b a l a n c e o f e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e h a s b e e n a s h i f t i n money demand--with t h e p u b l i c s i m p l y becoming l e s s w i l l i n g t h a n t h e y used t o b e t o h o l d money b a l a n c e s - - i n c l u d i n g demand d e p o s i t s , s a v i n g s d e p o s i t s , and o t h e r d e p o s i t s s u b j e c t t o r a t e c e i l i n g s - - r e l a t i v e and i n t e r e s t r a t e s . t o income T h i s i s , o f c o u r s e , r a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r i n an inflationary situation. The t a x on money a s p r i c e s r i s e becomes o p p r e s s i v e and h o l d e r s s h i f t t o o t h e r a s s e t s , i n c l u d i n g p h y s i c a l a s s e t s . Interest rates as c o n v e n t i o n a l l y measured s h o u l d a l s o r i s e i n the process i f a l l financial assets--not t o physical assets. merely cash--lose value r e l a t i v e This h a s n o t o c c u r r e d y e t t h i s y e a r , a l t h o u g h c a s h h o l d e r s h a v e been a b l e t o s e c u r e a h i g h e r e f f e c t i v e i n t e r e s t r a t e o n t h e i r p o r t f o l i o by s h i f t i n g t o money m a r k e t c e r t i f i c a t e s , money m a r k e t f u n d s , and o t h e r a s s e t s . A r i s e i n o v e r - a l l m a r k e t r a t e s may n o t have o c c u r r e d t h i s y e a r f o r any of t h r e e r e a s o n s - - ( a ) t h e m a r k e t a s a whole s t i l l b e l i e v e s t h e r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n w i l l d e c e l e r a t e , (b) t h e m a r k e t b e l i e v e s t h e r e a l r e t u r n on c a p i t a l goods i s d e c l i n i n g , o r (c) s h i f t s o u t of c a s h a r e o c c u r r i n g SO r a p i d l y t h a t t h e y a r e o f f s e t t i n g a n y t e n d e n c y f o r r a t e s on market i n s t r u m e n t s t o rise. If i n t e r e s t r a t e s were b e i n g h e l d down only b e c a u s e o f s h i f t s o u t of c a s h , t h e n m o n e t a r y p o l i c y m i g h t b e o v e r l y s t i m u l a t i v e a t t h e moment. This would b e t h e c a s e i f t h e m a r k e t d i d n o t b e l i e v e t h e r e a l r e t u r n on c a p i t a l was d e c l i n i n g and d i d b e l i e v e t h e r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n was a c c e l e r a t i n g . -3I n t h a t c a s e t h e expected nominal r e t u r n on c a p i t a l would be r i s i n g w h i l e nominal market r a t e s were unchanged. Such a s i t u a t i o n would t e n d t o s t i m u l a t e demand for p l a n t and equipment, h o u s i n g , and o t h e r d u r a b l e goods. I t would imply t h e need f o r a f u r t h e r r i s e i n market r a t e s i f t h e r a t e of i n f l a t i o n i s t o be c o n t a i n e d , and would b e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e view t h a t t h e Conanittee's l o n g e r - r u n monetary t a r g e t s a r e t o o high under c u r r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n a l circumstances. However, i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e r e s t r i c t i v e n e s s o f c u r r e n t market i n t e r e s t r a t e l e v e l s c l e a r l y depends i m p o r t a n t l y on a n assessment of t h e p r e s e n t s t a t e of e x p e c t a t i o n s of b u s i n e s s e s and consumers. Surveys of s p e n d i n g i n t e n t i o n s and o t h e r a n t i c i p a t o r y d a t a a r e one s o u r c e of evidence for a t t i t u d e s about t h e f u t u r e . Based i n p a r t on such d a t a , our s t a f f p r o j e c t i o n s s u g g e s t a s i g n i f i c a n t slowing i n t h e demands f o r d u r a b l e goods a t c u r r e n t market i n t e r e s t r a t e l e v e l s . Such a s l o w i n g , i f i t d e v e l o p s , would be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a view t h a t t h e expected r e a l r e t u r n o n c a p i t a l may be d e c l i n i n g i n t h i s advanced s t a g e of t h e c y c l i c a l expansion and t h u s t h a t t h e c u r r e n t l e v e l of nominal market r a t e s may b e r e a s o n a b l y r e s t r i c t i v e --even i f e x p e c t a t i o n s of i n f l a t i o n a r e b e i n g r e v i s e d up somewhat. One would need t o b e l i e v e t h a t t h e expected r e a l r e t u r n on c a p i t a l i s dropping s h a r p l y t o a r g u e f o r a n e a s i n g of money market c o n d i t i o n s under p r e s e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s , o r would need t o t a k e t h e view t h a t l o n g e r - r u n monetary t a r g e t s , once s e t , s h o u l d b e t h e dominant f o r c e i n g u i d i n g p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s - - r e g a r d l e s s of incoming e v i d e n c e about money demand i n r e l a t i o n t o economic a c t i v i t y . A l l o f t h e s e v a r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h e l a c k of c l e a r - c u t s i g n a l s f o r p o l i c y under p r e s e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s . The a c c e l e r a t i o n of informa- t i o n , i n combination w i t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e r e a l r e t u r n on c a p i t a l may -4 n o t have d e c l i n e d very much, could a r g u e f o r a p o l i c y o f t i g h t e n i n g a t t h i s time. But t h e v e r y marked weakness i n t h e a g g r e g a t e s r e l a t i v e t o longer-run t a r g e t s t e n d s t o weigh a g a i n s t such a move. A p o l i c y of e a s i n g money market c o n d i t i o n s would go i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f b r i n g i n g a g g r e g a t e growth back toward t a r g e t , b u t t h e s t a f f s t i l l b e l i e v e s a rebound i n growth of t h e a g g r e g a t e s w i l l o c c u r , a t p r e s e n t i n t e r e s t r a t e l e v e l s , i n t h e months ahead. And, i n any e v e n t , t h e r e appears t o be some r e a s o n a b l e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e downward s h i f t i n money demand may be g r e a t e r t h a n had been e s t i m a t e d when t h e l o n g e r - r u n t a r g e t s were o r i g i n a l l y s e t i n February, and t h a t , t h e r e f o r e , p r e s e n t t a r g e t s may be a b i t high. Thus, almost by e l i m i n a t i o n , a continued p o l i c y of unchanged money market c o n d i t i o n s , a t l e a s t f o r a w h i l e , may r e p r e s e n t t h e b e s t compromise i n f a c e o f u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n h e r e n t i n t h e combination o f r a p i d i n f l a t i o n , o f i n d i c a t i o n s o f a c o n s i d e r a b l e weakening i n economic a c t i v i t y , and o f s p e c i a l f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h e a g g r e g a t e s .
@FedFRASER