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(CONFIDENTIAL
FR)
April 12,
1974
MONETARY AGGREGATES
AND
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the Staff
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
April 12,
1974
MONETARY AGGREGATES AND
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
Recent developments
M1 grew at a 10.6 per cent annual rate in March, a little
(1)
more than projected in the last bluebook.
Although growth in April is
estimated to be somewhat slower, on average, the extent of the slowing is now
expected to be less than anticipated.
Thus, for the two months combined, M1
now appears to be expanding at slightly above a 9 per cent annual rate,
compared with the Committee's 5½ to 8½ per cent range of tolerance adopted
at the last meeting.
Growth of M2, on the other hand, appears to be within
the Committee's two-month range of tolerance,as shown in the table below.
With business loan demands very strong, and with large CD run-offs expected
around the tax date, banks have bid actively for large CD's and non-deposit
sources of funds.
As a result, expansion of the adjusted credit proxy has
been much more rapid than anticipated--accelerating to a 12 per cent annual
rate in March, and a projected 23 per cent annual rate in April.
Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's
in March-April Target Period
Reserve and Monetary Aggregates
(Growth at SAAR in per cent)
RPD's
Range of
Tolerance
Latest
Estimates
4 - 7
14.1
M1
5½ - 8½
9.2
M2
6¾ - 9¾
8.8
Ave. for Statement
Memo:
Federal funds rate
(per cent per annum)
9
- 10½
week ending
March 20 - 9.33
April 10 -10.02
-2(2)
Because of the rapid expansion in CD's and bank credit,
RPD growth appears likely to be well in excess of the upper limit of
its range of tolerance.
As may be seen from the table below, CD's and
nondeposit sources absorbed considerably more reserves than originally
expected.
Private demand deposits also absorbed more reserves than
expected, but the overshoot was considerably less than for CD's.
Comparison of Projected Changes in RPD's by Use
March-April 1974
(In millions of dollars)
Projections as of
March 19, 1974
FOMC meeting
Projection
329
769
Change in Total RPD's 1/
Current
Change in Category of Use:
279
Private demand deposits
Time deposits other than
large CD's
50
406
CD's and nondeposit funds
35
Excess
1/ Changes from February to April 1974.
(3)
In accordance with the discussion at the March 19 meeting,
early in the inter-meeting period the Desk sought reserve conditions
that would raise the Federal funds rate from the
9½
per cent level just
reached at the time of the meeting to a level more consistent with the
Committee's desires with respect to the monetary aggregates.
Early action
was considered desirable because of expected Treasury financing operations
-3at the end of March; a tax bill was auctioned on March 26 and a 2-year
note on March 28.
As the aggregates strengthened, the Desk became an even
more reluctant supplier of nonborrowed reserves.
By the close of the
period, reserve operations were expected to be consistent with a Federal
funds rate of 10 per cent or somewhat higher.
Over the three full
statement weeks ending within the inter-meeting period, member bank
borrowing at Federal Reserve Banks has averaged nearly $1.5 billion,
about $350 million larger than in the three preceding statement weeks.
(4)
The combination of heavy business credit demands, tighter
money market conditions, and developing evidence that the economy was
not so weak as anticipated contributed to large across-the-board interest
rate advances during the inter-meeting period.
Advances in short-term
rates ranged generally from 50 to 100 basis points.
With rates on
commercial paper and large bank CD's rising steeply, major banks came
under particularly heavy pressure as both their business loans and the
costs of funds to cover such loans increased.
Reflecting this squeeze,
the bank prime rate moved upward in rapid sequence from 8¾ at the time
of the last meeting to 10 per cent at a number of banks in the latest
week.
Bond yields rose 35 to 75 basis points during the period,with the
consequent sudden large capital losses leading to some unsettlement in
markets.
(5)
Very recently, however, securities markets have shown
some signs of stabilizing.
This week's offerings of new corporate and
municipal securities have been well received at the higher interest rate
levels, and yields on some key U.S. Government securities have edged a
little lower.
Yield declines were quite sharp in the bill market, where
-4there is a technical shortage of supply.
The 3-month Treasury bill,
for example, has traded most recently at 8.25 per cent, down from the
recent high of 8.65 per cent.
(6)
The large recent increases in rates on competing market
securities have begun to exert pressures on non-bank financial intermediaries.
While flows to these institutions remained quite favorable
in March, New York City savings banks--typically the first to suffer
from disintermediation--experienced large withdrawals in early April,
comparable in relative magnitude to those of early April 1970.
Industry
reports suggest that intermediaries generally are taking a more cautious
approach on mortgage commitments, and the most sensitive interest rates in
mortgage markets have begun to rise.
(7)
The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates
of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent time
periods.
Appendix Table III compares money supply growth rates computed on
a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter
basis.
Projected figures on the two bases are shown in appendix Table IV
for the three alternatives presented in the next section.
Average of
Past 3
Past
Past
Past
Calendar
Years
1971
12
Months
Mar. '74
6
Months
Mar. '74
3
Months
Mar. '74
Past
Month
Mar. '74
-1973
over
Mar. '73
over
Sept. '73
over
Dec. '73
over
Feb. '74
Total reserves
8.5
6.5
3.9
1.7
-5.3
Nonborrowed reserves
7.6
8.6
7.5
1.6
-9.8
Reserves available to
support private nonbank deposits
8.8
8.9
3.9
6.2
12.1
6.9
6.5
7.2
6.7
10.6
10.3
9.3
10.0
9.5
8.7
M3 (M2 plus deposits
at thrift institutions)
11.7
8.5
9.2
9.0
8.7
10.5
8.2
6.0
8.6
11.9
Loans and investments
of commercial banks2/ 12.8
11.7
10.4
16.2
17.1
1.1
0.2
1.6
1.1
0.9
0.6
-2.3
Concepts of Money
M 1 (currency plus
demand deposits)1/
M2 (M1 plus time deposits
at commercial
banks other than
large CD's)
Bank Credit
Total member banks
deposits (bank credit
proxy adj.)
Short-term market paper
(Monthly avg. change in
billions)
Large CD's
1.0
Nonbank commercial
paper
0.2
0.7
1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government.
2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches.
NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on
total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift
institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables
are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series
when reserve requirements are changed.
Prospective developments
(8) Alternatives presented for Committee consideration are
summarized below (with more detailed figures shown in the table on p. 6a).
Alt. B
Alt. A
Alt. C
Targets (2nd & 3rd qtrs.
combined)
M1
6¾
6
5¼
M2
8¼
7¼
6¼
Credit proxy
11¼
10½
9½
Associated ranges for
April-May
RPD
10¾--12¾
9¾--11¾
8¾-10¾
M1
6½ --8½
6--8
5½--7½
M2
7¼--9¼
6¾--8¾
6¼--8¼
8¾--10¼
9¼ --10¾
9¾--ll¼
Federal funds rate range
(inter-meeting period)
(9)
Alternative C represents continuation of the strategy with
regard to the aggregates adopted by the Committee at its last meeting.
That is, the alternative contemplates return of M1
to the 5¾ per cent long-
run growth path (depicted in the chart on the following page)
by September.
Accomplishing this would appear to require interest rates somewhat higher
than indicated at the last meeting, and also higher than those currently
prevailing, in view of the stronger growth in nominal GNP that is now
projected for the second and third quarters.
The Federal funds rate range
for the inter-meeting period thought to be consistent with the alternative
C pattern for the aggregates is 9¾--11¼ per cent, centering on 10½ per cent.
MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH
RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
-I
280
I
53
GROWTH
5 ho GROWTH
RATE OF GROWTH
5 7%
DEC. '72 TO DEC. '73
270
i.......-
- 260
i
1
I
J
O
S
1973
,
,
i
I
I
A
N
D
,
,
,
J
F
M
, _
A
M
1974
.
J
L
A
S
-6aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates
1974
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Sept.
Quarters:
1974
2nd Q.
3rd Q.
M3
Alt. A
M1
Alt.
274.9
276.8
278.4
279.8
284.3
274.9
276.7
278.1
279.4
283.4
7.1
6.4
6.5
5.7
6.0
4.7
.2
.3
7.5
7.0
6.8
5.7
7.6
7.1
6.3
4.8
8.3
6.9
7.9
6.1
7.4
5.6
9.0
7.5
8.8
6.7
8.6
5.9
8.1
6.8
7.8
5.4
B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
Alt. B
Alt. C
274.9
276.6
277.9
279.0
282.3
584.3
588.7
592.4
596.3
584.3
584.3
588.5
591.4
594.2
602.6
913.4
919.6
924,8
930.8
913.4
919.4
924,1
929.0
942.6
913.4
919.3
923.4
927.7
938.9
588.6
591.9
595.2
605.6
608.6
Rates of Growth
947.3
Months:
Apr.
May
Adjusted Credit Proxy
Alt. B
Alt. C
Alt. A
1974
RPD
Alt. B
Alt. C
471.3
34,952
35,764
35,914
35,671
33,122
33,571
33,770
33,856
33,122
33,560
33,718
33,792
33,122
33,549
33,662
33,725
481.5
36,615
36,466
36,311
34,628
34,478
34,322
9.0
8.1
8.2
7.2
8.9
9.1
27.9
5.0
16.3
7.1
459.3
468.1
469.6
471.9
459.3
468.1
469.3
Sept.
485.3
483.3
10.7
Alt. A
34,952
35,775
35,971
35,739
459.3
468.2
470.0
472.6
11.6
Total Reserves
Alt. B
Alt. C
34,952
35,786
36,023
35,805
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Quarters:
1974 2nd Q.
3rd Q.
Alt. A
11.0
9.7
10.5
23.0
23.0
8.7
9.8
9.1
7.3
7.1
Months:
Apr.
May
23.3
4.6
3.8
3,1
28.6
8.0
28.2
6.6
15.9
5.7
15.5
4.0
-7(10)
Alternative B calls for somewhat more rapid growth in the
monetary aggregates over the second and third quarters, typified by a 6 per
cent growth rate for M 1 .
The B growth rates seem obtainable with little
further significant change in money market conditions and short-term
interest rates, in light of the sharp increases in short-term rates that
have already occurred during the past two months.
Thus, the Federal funds
rate under this alternative centers around 10 per cent.
The still more
rapid longer-run growth rates of alternative A--including a 6¾ per cent
rate for M 1 over the second and third quarters--appear likely to be
associated with declines in both short- and long-term interest rates.
(11)
Over the April-May period, M 1 growth is likely to be
somewhat above the long-run path.
Under alternative B, for example, M 1
growth is indicated in the 6--8 per cent range.
These above-path in-
creases reflect in large part the sizable expansion in M 1 currently
estimated for April.
Given the lagged relationship between interest
rates and money demand, however, M 1 growth is expected to moderate later
as it approaches the longer-run path.
(12)
Between now and mid-May, short-term interest rates could
decline somewhat under alternative B.
Indeed, the very recent drop in
the 3-month bill rate probably is anticipating some of the potential for
downward rate adjustments.
Any decline
that did develop over the next
few weeks is very likely to be temporary, assuming a 10 per cent Federal
funds rate.
Over the longer run, the 3-month bill rate would seem most
likely to fluctuate around a
8½
--8¾ per cent range.
-8(13)
A number of factors might contribute to temporary easing
in short-term markets in the weeks immediately ahead.
The extremely
large issuance of new CD's by banks, which has contributed to recent
upward pressures on short-term rates, has partly reflected advance
preparation for large tax date maturities, and those pressures should
abate after mid-April.
Funds from large oil payments in April may also
become available to the short-term sector of U.S. credit markets via
U.S. banks' use of the Euro-dollar market.
In addition, that portion
of the $4½ billion of maturing April tax bills not turned in for taxes
would generate reinvestment demand for short-term securities.
Finally,
the Treasury's May refunding--to be announced on May 1--might include
some cash redemption of the $5½ billion of maturing publicly held debt
because of the possibility of debt ceiling problems.
(14)
A rise in the funds rate over the next few weeks--such
as would be likely under alternative C-- would generate market expectations of a further tightening of monetary policy.
This would offset any
tendency for short-term rates to decline, even temporarily, and would
probably result in further upward adjustments.
Over the next few months,
the 3-month bill rate could be around 9 per cent, and possibly higher in
the summer when Treasury cash borrowing demands are seasonally strong.
(15)
Under alternative B, with market interest rates little
changed on balance from current high levels, net savings inflows to
nonbank thrift institutions are likely to be slower than the 8 per cent
first-quarter pace.
We would estimate a growth rate of about 6 per cent
in the second quarter and 4 per cent in the third, assuming no change in
-9Regulation Q.
Under alternative C, these institutions would come under
greater pressure, of course, but in either case some tightening in the
availability of mortgage loan commitments would be likely, compared with
the situation in the early months of the year.
(16)
Net inflows to commercial banks of time and savings
deposits other than large CD's are likewise expected to be slower over
the months ahead than in
the first
quarter,
though the experience
of banks may continue to be somewhat better than at thrift
institutions.
Commercial banks appear to be having greater success
than the specialized thrift institutions in attracting large time deposits
(those of $100,000 or more) that are not subject to Regulation Q ceilings.
Such deposits are reported as part of the other time and savings category
and, unlike large negotiable CD's, are included in the M2 measure.
(17)
We would expect banks to offset some part of any loss in
other time and savings deposits through increased issuance of large CD's
or greater borrowing in theEuro-dollar market, depending on relative costs.
However, under any of the alternatives presented, the amount of borrowing
by banks through CD's and nondeposit sources is expected to be considerably
less than in recent weeks, partly because preparations for tax-date runoffs will have been completed and partly because business loan demand on
banks is expected to moderate from the exceptionally rapid pace of March.
Moreover, it is probable that the spread between the bank lending rate
and the commercial paper rate will favor bank credit less than was the
case in March.
-10(18)
In intermediate- and long-term debt markets, demands
are likely to remain strong over the weeks ahead.
Corporate and State
and local government bond offerings remain quite high, despite recent
postponements.
Also, the Treasury refunding will probably involve
marketing securities with mainly intermediate-term maturities.
Given
the volume of private and governmental securities in prospect, bond yields
could rise considerably further under alternative C.
High-grade corporate
issues, which are already above their summer highs, could approach their
1970 peaks, and Treasury notes and bonds could rise above them (the 20 year
Treasury bond is already above the earlier peak).
Under alternative B,
further upward adjustments in bond yields are likely to be comparatively
modest, given the increases that already have occurred and the stabilizing
tendencies that we would expect in short-term markets.
(19)
Under alternative A, savings inflows to thrift institutions
would be expected to recover to close to their first-quarter pace, as
receding market rates provide
less competition for savings funds.
At
banks, deposits inflows--both demand and consumer-type time and savings-would probably be well sustained.
As a result, credit demands could be
financed without banks adding to pressures on credit markets through
aggressive issuance of large CD's or reductions in portfolio liquidity.
-11Proposed directive language
(20)
Presented below are three alternative formulations
for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended
to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section.
For all three alternatives,
it is proposed to include a reference to Treasury financing because
the regular May refinancing will be announced on May 1.
Alternative A
To implement this policy, while taking account of THE
FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF international and
domestic financial market developments, [DEL:
the
including
prospective Treasury financing] the Committee seeks to achieve
moderate
would
that
bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL:
CONSISTENT WITH growth in monetary aggregates over the
months ahead SUFFICIENT TO ACCOMMODATE MODERATE EXPANSION
IN REAL GNP AT THE HIGHER DOLLAR VALUES NOW PREVAILING.
Alternative B
To implement this policy, while taking account of
THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF international
including
and domestic financial market developments, [DEL:
financing]
Treasury
prospective
the
the Committee seeks
to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that
would moderate SOMEWHAT growth in monetary aggregates
over the months ahead.
-12Alternative C
To implement this policy, while taking account of
THE FORTHCOMING TREASURY FINANCING AND OF international and
domestic financial market developments, including
the
[DEL:
financing]
Treasury
prospective
the Committee seeks to achieve
bank reserve and money market conditions that would moderate
growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead.
(21)
In the event that the Committee wishes to couch the
operational paragraph of the directive in terms of money market
conditions, the specifications of alternative B might be associated
with language indicating that "...the Committee seeks to maintain
about the prevailing money market conditions, provided that the
monetary aggregates appear to be growing at rates within the specified
ranges of tolerance."
CHART 1
STRICTLY CONfIDENTIAL (fR)
4/12/74
RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS
REVISED SERIES
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
38
7% growth for Mar Apr
S
h1
4/10 741
-36
"~vJS
Fv~l~
rr
- 32
J
F
M
1974
M
*Break
J
1973
in Series Actual Leve
S
D
M
J
S
1974
1 of
RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements
A
M
CHART
2
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
4/12/74
MONETARY AGGREGATES
REVISED SERIES
NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
81/2% growth for Mar Apr
51/2% growth
MONEY SUPPLY M2
I
I
Il'
9%3% growth for Mar Apr
S
6
1973
1974
J
f
1973
4/ 10 74) -
% growth
M
A
1974
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CHART 3
MONETARY AGGREGATES
ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY
BILLIONS OF
TOTAL RESERVES
"4h~
I
1973
*
reak in series, Actual Level of Total 'Reserves After Changes in
1
1
1974
Reserve
Requ itements
1
,
I
I l
l!
CHART 4
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
PER CENT
1 12
_1
RESERVES
BORROWED
E
_L_
IV
V
INTEREST RATES
PER CENT
13
INTEREST RATES Long-term
4
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
-1
3
NET BORROWE
J1IJLu_
1973
1974
1973
1974
1973
1974
PER CENT
11
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
TAPLE 1
BANK RESERVES
(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS)
------
-----
------
-------
-----
APRIL
12,
1974
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --
REQUIRID HESEHVES
I
AGPRFGATF RESFRVES
II---------------------------------------II
SFASONALLY ADJUSTED
SII--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------II
TOTAL
NONRnPROWED I
PRIVATE
OTHER
CD'S AND
GUV*T AND
IFon SEAS AOJ
I NON SEAS AOJ II
RFSERVFS
RFSERVES
I
DEMAND
TIMF DEP
NON DE
INTERRANK
- -------------------------------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (1)
I
(?)
I
(3)
(4)
( )
()
( )
(")
SII
I REcERVER AVAILABLE FOR
I PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSTTS
II
MONTHLY LFVFLS-%MILLION
II
------------------------ I
1Y73--nEr.
I
I
3.912
I
1974--JAN.
9 M
F
.
MAP.
APR.
I
ANNUAL RATFS OF rHANGF
*---------------------QUARTERLY
33,167
II
32.799
37.791
339122
(31.560)
33,467
32,875
32.893
(33.641)
I
I
I
I
II
I
1I
II
11
I
35.105
339807
35.850
35.108
34.952
(35.775)
34.799
33.911
33.638
(34,412)
?2.?27
I
20.201
(20.1
)
I
20.30
20.030
8.460
3.918
3.807
3.967
4.0j7
( 4 37d)
8s525
8.601
896'4
( 89651)
2.193
3.051
2.r11
1.831
(
.p21 )
I
II
f
I
-I
I
I
1
1
II
1973--3P0 OTR.
4TH QTR.
4.2
1.4
I
I
6.?2
I
I
I
10.6
6.1
11.3
13.4
1.7
1.6
10.5
14.4
I
90.-b.1
1.4
5.A
15.7
1.7?
1.3
'.2
42.4
4.3
-?7.4
II
1974--IST QTR.
I
1
SII
MONTHLY
1973--DEC.
9.4
1
1974--JAN.
FFH.
MAP.
APR.
(
6.9
-0.3
12.1
15.9)
I
I
II
I
II
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
I
15.)
1
35.7
-24.8
-5.3
28.3)
45.9
-30.4
-9.8
(
27.6)
1
4.6
-15..710.7
1.1
(
1.6)
(
7.4
-0.4)
(
/.0
.4
21.2
9.6b)
(
(
i.b)
(
61.3)
9.2
SII
MAR.-APR.
I
14.1)
(
11.4)
(
8.8)
I
.4)
SII
WFFWLY LFVFLS-SMILLTONS
-------------------I
1974--FEP.
MAR.
6
13
0
I
I
32641
32.739
329795
3?7921
1
33,134
33.165
32.873
32.812
32.702
34.201
34014
33,901
33.614
I
I
I
I
?0.033
19.874
20*107
20,097
8.578
8.579
8,613
8,626
3,906
3,992
3.961
3.992
2.559
d.42A
29482
1.044
32.810
34.663
33,741
I
20,351
8.647
4.017
1.530
13
32.937
32.593
II
34.792
33.809
I
20140
8.662
49019
1.859
P0
27
1 3.214
33.090
33.029
32.954
II
11
35.233
34.7A1
31,750
33.068
I
I
20.460
20,277
8.658
8.648
4,007
4.068
,.019
19691
3
10
33.319
33,304
33.195
33.036
It
II
35,475
35.217
31,972
34,022
I
20.?63
20.216
8.051
8.647
4.099
4.204
2.156
1.913
27
1
I
h
I
1
II
APR.
35.199
35*167
35.277
34.865
II
II
II
11
II
II
I
II
SII
NOTE, DATA SHOWN IN PARENTmESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.
AT THE FOMC MEETING OF
THE COMMITTEE AGREFD ON A RPO RANGE OF 4 TO 7 PERrENT FOR THF MAR-aPH PERIOb.
MARCH 19
1974
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
---------------------
TABLE 2
APRIL
MONETARY AGGREGATES
(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
l------------l-l--ll--l-l---ll-ll---ll-------l-------i--l-l--l--l----ll---l---
I
I
I
PFPITO
MONEY SUPPLY
NARROW
I
BROAD
(MI)
I
(M2)
I
I
I
(2)
(1)
ADJUSTED
CREDIT
PROXY
(3)
II
U.S.
II
GOVT.
II DEPOSITS
II
I
I
I
(4)
I-----l-----l-ll------------l-ll--l----l
TIME
TOTAL
AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS
I
OTHFR
I
I THAN CD S I
CD S
I NONDEPOSIT
I SOURCES OF
I
FUNDS
(5)
(6)
(l)
363.1
300.3
b2.8
7.4
65.5
66.6
67.7
(73.1)
7.b
7.7
8.7
( 9.3)
II
MONTHLY LEV'FLS-ILI IONe
---------------------- I
1973--DEC.
570.7
270.4
I
449,6
I
4.9
II
269.,
1974--JAN.
272.5
274.
(276.7)
MAR.
APR.
I
I
I
I
I
-0.2
7.54
TR.
I
6.7
MUNTW|_Y
-- *---1973--DEC.
454.3
454.8
459.3
(468.1)
11
1
II
II
6.2
3.0
3.7
( 4.5)
I
I
I
369.6
374.2
377.1
(384.9)
304.1
307.6
309.4
(311.9)
14.n
5.8
10.4
12.5
I
I
I
II
II
PEurFNT ANNUAL GQO.TH
--------------------OIIAPTFLY
--------1973--300 orT.
&T- 'TR.
1974--1ST
I
573.7
580.1
5B4.3
(588.6)
I
5.2
10.1
10.5
3.3
9.5
8.6
II
II
II
II
II
12.1
II
II
II
I
1
7.1
1
I
8.5
I
5.6
10.7
II
10.1
I
II
19fq--JAN.
I
FEP.
MAR.
-3.6
12.9
10.6
( 7.4)
I
I
6.3
13.4
8.7
(8.8)
12.5
1.3
11.9
(23.0)
21.5
14.9
9.3
(24.8)
II
II
II
II
I
15.2
13.8
7.0
(9.7)
II
MA.-APP.
WFFYLY LFVFLC-$SHLLTONq
----------------------FF4.
I
8.8)
9.2)
(17.5)
(17.2 )
( 8.4)
373.;
374.p
374.
375.1
306.4
307.2
308.0
308.8
67.0
66.4
66.2
7.2
7.8
7.9
7.7
374.9
375.9
379.4
308.9
309.0
309.5
309.6
65.9
66.8
67.1
68.
8.0
8.1
8.8
9.2
381.3
385.7
310.1
311.6
II
II
I
A
I
13
20
/7
(
270.4
I
577.3
271,.
I
579.1
582.6
591.2
274,*
272.7
I
I
455.5
454.5
453.7
II
II
I
4.5
454.a
II
3.1
2.5
I
.6.8
II
MAP.
*
13
-n
P7
APR.
274.
I
I
I
274.3
I
584.7
b83.9
584.0
5839
276.i
275.7
I
5A6.1
587.3
275.
274.
I
P
3 P
In PFr
I
I
4b8.2
456.4
459.3
460.3
II
I
I
11
466.4
468.5
I
NOTE! DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES
4.2
3.0
4.0
3.6
4.0
5.0I
I
12,
37
I1
ARE CURRFNT DROJFrTIONS.
.6
I
I
I
71.2
74.1
I
9.6
9.2
(
P
- PRELIMINARY
PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED
1974
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
APRIL12, 1974
TABLE 3
RESERVE EFFECTS OF
OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS
(Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)
Daily Average Reserve Effect 2/
Open Market Operations 1/
Bills
& Accept,
(1)
Coupon
Agency
RP's
Issues
(2)
lssues
(3)
Ne: 3/
(4)
Open Market
Total
(5)
Operations
(6)
h
Member
in reserve categories
.
.
[
agt
Other 4/
req. res. against
available res 5/
available
Bank Borrowing
(7)
Factors
(8)
U.S.G. and interb.,
(9)
(6)+(7)+(8)-(9)
(10)
reserves 5/
(11)
Monthly
1973 --
1974 --
--
-30
531
7
-583
-282
1,150
-149
434
475
1,972
-1,008
1,862
-533
226
172
71
128
295
-902
-831
2,440
-1,307
1,386
1,986
394
1,336
-395
-68
-101
-678
-646
-759
379
-190
-70
534
-130
546
1,005
860
475
-397
-37
-64
179
30
190
-10
74
122
-100
-1,531
-328
71
1,780
1,031
9
-74
-254
143
166
698
-1,505
-302
773
-356
-323
702
-997
113
895
-875
-30
Sept
-494
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan
reb.
March
315
April
May
weekly
1974 --
Feb. 6
13
70
27
-382
394
185
-124
--
Mar. 6
13
20
27
-759
-416
451
-18
Apr
30
--
-38
-120
-8
-1,864
2,288
1,049
-3,106
-2,285
2,683
1,384
-3,238
-685
269
888
-1,001
-222
155
223
-125
243
-551
-1,071
589
--190
--
-5
-43
-170
370
2,116
-893
-1,474
-394
1,657
-252
-1,321
-376
-21
677
136
-339
71
501
229
---
---
251
-5
494
-785
-210
-308
--
--5
3
10
251
--
31
165
101
-427
-695
-292
-61
-110
497
65
-732
-812
-326
332
25
-387p
108
-217
421
60p
480
752
53 p
-182p
2
232p
-159p
17
24
11
rfesernts
chan e in
S
tem'ni
ortfot
l
fm
ef
t
r
n efA-An
nfr
>
j U VL YZIIVYI
LIICLUUI~CO
rbafr
mfnn
*e *iw
nnd Arm
-I-FA11
.
ill
LCU~III~ILLY1IP
LLI LTbYLIIL YL~
naurins
~Y~LIV1
Y
Represents change in daily average level for preceding period.
Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's.
Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation, Treasury operations, F.R. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts.
Reserves to support private fonbank deposits. Target change for March and April reflects the target adopted at the March 19, 1974 FOMC meeting.
Target change for previous months reflects the bluehook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted durihg the month.
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
APRIL 12, 1974
TABLE 4
SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS
Millions of dollars
U S
Govt. Security
Dealer
Period
Bills
Positions
Coupon Issues
(1)
1973 -1974
.
Dealer Positionqs
Municipal
Corporate
Bonds
Bonds
_
___
Excess**
Reserves
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Total
Member Bank Reserves Posltion
Basic Reserve Deficit
Borrowing at FRB**
Seasonal
8 New York
38 Qthers
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
High
Low
3,796
897
1,299
-301
197
0
384
36
631
-240
2,561
688
163
3
-5,243
-1,831
-10,661
-4,048
--
High
3,238
2,203
253
371
388
1,713
48
-6,189
-11,987
--
Low
1,501
154
14
46
-83
776
13
-3,229
-9,541
Mar.
2,490
-50
24
125
177
1,825
-4,273
-5,847
Apr.
2,457
106
12
60
255
1,688
3
-3,293
-6,577
May
1,894
421
66
151
161
1,843
30
-3,019
-5,872
June
2,281
562
33
120
234
1,851
75
-3,507
-6,443
July
Aug.
Sept.
1,425
1,690
2,745
265
39
395
24
0
6
139
70
80
285
177
216
1,953
2,165
1,852
155
163
148
-2,460
-2,689
-3,173
-6,106
-4,940
-5,355
Oct.
2,565
484
44
226
227
1,476
126
-3,814
-6,090
Nov.
Dec.
2,804
3,441
793
973
90
105
148
276
239
307
1,393
1,298
84
41
-4,469
-4,682
-8,186
-9,793
Jan.
Feb.
3,102
2,436
540
1,619
114
120
254
263
162
184
1,051
1,162
18
17
-4,753
-5,262
-10,893
-10,769
583
68
239
13 p
1,314p
32p
-5,022p
-10,9
1973 --
1974 --
Mar
1974 --
Feb
*1,986
*
6
47
p
6
13
20
27
2,759
2,781
2,171
2,096
898
2,203
1,882
1,508
88
253
95
115
226
210
245
299
124
294
114
206
998
1,153
1,376
1,251
18
15
20
16
-4,118
-5,656
-5,726
-5,341
-10,417
-10,719
-10,863
-10,907
Mar. 6
13
20
27
2,474
2,466
*1,501
-1,538
1,097
848
* 520
* 154
114
14
71
73
298
286
167
204
118
116
80
147p
912
983
1,483
1,713p
19
19
34
4
4p
-5,911
-5,858
-4,304
-4,402
-10,497
-11,388
-11,441
-11,298
3
*2,264
*
263
-11,2260
48
*2,120
*
-4,078p
9
10
212
Apr
86
5
5p
97
306
p
1,503p
46
236p
1,195p
4
8p
41p
-5,3 6p
-11,
17
24
NOTE: Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis.
Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurcnase agreeOther security dealer positions are debt
ments maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings available for sale over the near-tert.
issues still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve less net
Federal funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday
figures.
* STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
** Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowingq are weighted averageq of statement week figures.
2p
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
APRIL
TABLE
(FR)
12,1974
5
SELECTED INTEREST RATES
Per cent
Treasury Bills
Period
Federal Funds
(1)
90-Day
(2)
1-Year
(3)
Short-Term
90-119 Day
Commercial
paper
(4)
Long-Term
CD's New Issue-NYC
60-89 Day
(S)
90-119 Day
(6)
Aaa Utility
New
Recently
Issue
Offered
(8)
(7)
Municipal
Bond Buyer
9)
U.S Government
(10-yr Constant
Maturity)
(10)
FNMA
Auction
Yields
(11)
1973 --
High
Low
10.84
5.61
8.95
5.15
8 43
5 42
10.50
5.63
10.50
5.38
10.75
5 50
8 52
7 29
8.30
7.26
5,59
4 99
7.54
6.42
9.37
7 69
1974 --
High
Low
10 02
8.81
8.60
7.04
8.10
6.39
9.63
7.88
9.75
8.00
. 75
7.88
9 13
8.05
8.97
8.14
5.75
5.16
7.50
6.93
8.95
8 43
1973 --
Mar
7 09
6.09
6.53
6.76
6.78
6 75
7 49
7.51
5.29
6 71
7 78
Apr.
May
June
7 12
7 84
8.49
6.26
6.36
7.19
6.51
6.63
7.05
7.13
7.26
8.00
7 04
7.44
7.98
6 75
7 41
8.13
7 46
7.51
7 64
7.48
7 50
7 64
5.15
5.15
5.18
6.67
6.85
6.90
7.89
7.98
8.07
Tuly
Aug
Spt
10.40
10.50
10.78
8.01
8.67
8.29
7.97
8 32
8.07
9 26
10 26
10.31
9.09
10.25
10.31
9.19
10.40
10 50
8 01
8 36
7.88
7 97
8 22
7 99
5 40
5.48
5.10
7.13
7.40
7 09
8 46
8 83
9.32
Oct
Nov.
Dec
10.01
10.03
9.95
7.22
7.83
7.45
7.17
7.40
7.01
9 14
9 11
9 28
9.15
9.06
9.44
9.08
8 91
9.13
7.90
7 90
8 00
7 94
7 94
8 04
5.05
5.18
5 12
6.79
6 73
6 74
9 01
8.84
8.78
1974 --
Tan
Feb
Mar.
9 65
8 97
9 35
7.77
7.12
7.97
7.01
6.51
7.34
8 86
8.00
8.64
9.05
8.09
8.69
8 83
7.97
8.56
8 21
8 12
8.46
8 22
8.23
8.42
5.22
5.20
5.41
6.99
6.96
7.21
8.71
8.48
8.53
1974 --
Feb
6
13
20
27
9 13
8 93
9 07
8.81
7.16
7.08
7.04
7.20
6.59
6.47
6.39
6.54
8.25
8.03
7 88
7.88
8.13
8.13
8.00
8.13
8.00
8.00
7.88
8 00
8 13
8.05
8.10
8.30
8 19
8.25
8.24
8.29
5.16
5.18
5.21
5.26
6.94
6.93
6.96
7.01
6
13
20
27
8.98
9.03
9.33
9 61
7.60
7.81
7.93
8.22
6.91
7.02
7.26
7.83
8.15
8.33
8.58
9.10
8.25
8.38
8.75
9.38
8.13
8.25
8.63
9.25
8.37
8.33
8.59
8.64
8.27
8 37
8.52
8.67
5.27
5.32
5.46
5.57
7.08
7.12
7.28
7.38
8.44
-8.62
3
10
17
24
9.93
10.02
8.41
8.60
7.84
8.10
9.45
9 63
9.38
9 75
9.25
9.75
8.78
9 13p
8.75
8.92p
5.73
5.75
7.47
7
.50p
8.95
Mar
Apr.
8.53
8.43
NOTES: Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data
Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes.
For Columns 7, 8 and 10 the
weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the
statement week.
Column It gives FNMA auction data for the Monday preceding the end 6[ the statement week.
The FNM atiction yield is the average
yield in the bi-weekly auction for short-term forwird commitments for Government underwritten mortgages
APPENDIX TABLE I
RESERVES AND MONETARY
VARIABLES
RESERVES
, Period
Total
(1)
Honborrowed
(2)
MOEY STOCK 1MASURES
Available to
Support Pvt.
Deposita
(3)
3
(4)
(5)
(6)
EANK
CREDIT
Adjusted
Credit
Proxy
MEASURES
Total
Loans and
Investments
(7)
April 12, 1974
(8)
OTHER
ITie
Total
Time
(9)
Other than
CD's
(10)
Thrift
Institution
Deposits
+6.0
+7.2
+10.6
+7.8
+9.3
+7.8
+7.7
+7.2
+8.7
+6.9
+10.1
+9.3
Semi-Annually:
1st Half 1972
2nd Half 1972
+10.8
+9.9
+11.0
+4.1
+8.3
+11.5
Ist Half 1973
2nd Half 1973
+6.7
+8.6
+1.6
+12.7
+10.3
+7.8
Quarterly:
1st Qtr. 1972
2nd Qtr. 1972
3rd Qtr. 1972
4th Qtr. 1972
+8.7
+12.6
+44.4
+15.1
+9.1
+12.6
-0.9
+9.2
+9.6
+6.9
+10.4
+12.2
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1973
1973
1973
1973
+6.4
+6.9
+10.6
+6.1
-3.6
+7.0
+11.3
+13.4
+7.8
+12.5
+14.2
+1.4
lst Qtr. 1974
+1.7
+1.6
+6.2
+30.1
-21.1
+10.5
+14.7
+5.4
+0.5
+27.2
-5.1
+9.4
+12.1
-4.3
+10.5
+26.8
-38.5
+1.8
+20.1
+0.5
+0.2
+24.9
-13.5
+21.9
+26.7
-1.6
+14.4
+15.9
-2.9
+10.3
+10.0
+9.9
+17.3
+18.5
+10.1
+13.3
+1.0
-6.3
+9.4
+11.7
+9.1
+7.2
+8.6
+10.3
+11.9
+6.1
+4.1
+3.2
+9.1
+9.7
+8.5
+35.7
-24.8
-5.3
+45.9
-30.4
-9.8
+6.9
-0.3
+12.1
+7.0
+11.2
+8.7
Qtr.
Qtr.
qtr.
Qtr.
onthlv:
1973-Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1974--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
I/
p
+10.7
+10.9
+7.7
+3.7
I
Nondeposit
Funds
CD's
(12)
(11)
(Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth)
Annually:
1970
1971
1972
1973
I
(13)
(Dollar Change in
U.S.
Covt
Dand
(14)
Billions)
+8.2
+9.4
+11.6
+10.6
+8.1
+11.2
+14.6
+12.6
+17.9
+18.2
+15.7
+15.9
+11.1
+16.7
+13.5
+11.3
+7.1
+17.5
+16.9
+8.6
+11.2
+11.3
+13.6
+14.7
+15,4
+14.8
+13.8
+13.8
+17.3
+15.4
+13.8
+7.0
+16.6
+8.0
+20.7
+10.0
+10.3
+11.6
+11.7
+5.3
+18.6
+ 0.8
+14.6
+10.9
+12.8
+11.8
+10.5
+11.6
+10.2
+12.1
+15.7
+11.1
+13.0
+15.8
+14.5
+15.7
+14.3
+14.8
+15.5
+11.7
+12.7
+11.4
+18.9
+14.7
+16.2
+13.9
+0.7
+3.7
+2.4
+3.6
-0.4
+0.3
-1.1
+1.2
+9.4
+10.4
+4.5
+9.2
+14.6
+12.6
+10.5
+3.3
+19.9
+12.7
+11.4
+4.4
+22.7
+17.8
+14.0
+5.8
+ 9.9
+10.4
+10.4
+12.5
+13.6
+9.4
+3.1
+7.5
+11.2
+7.4
+4.7
-3.9
+1.5
-2.3
-0.3
-0.1
+16.2
+15.4
+12.1
+9.7
+11.1
+22.3
+15.4
+11.0
+11.1
+8.6
+17.0
+5.7
+1.6
+2.7
+5.6
+17.8
+23.7
+17.2
+13.1
+16.6
+8.2
+13.3
+16.7
+4.1
+6.7
+5.0
+1.5
+16.5
+22.3
+28.2
+22.5
+18.9
+11.2
+12.5
+19.2
+ 9.8
+ 3.4
+ 3.3
+10.7
+12.9
+ 7.0
+ 9.6
+10.0
+10.3
+10.7
+ 7.6
+13.0
+10.4
+16.1
+11.0
+10.1
+15.8
+14.4
+10.2
+9.4
+7.8
+10.8
+6.5
+12.5
+1.3
+11.9
+15.8
+15.0
+17.1
+21.5
+14.9
+9.3
+15.2
+13.8
+7.0
+8.2
+7.4
+8.8
+13.0
+12.5
+9.1 +10.0
+7.8 J+6.9
+9.0
+8.6
+1.2
-0.4
-1.2
-1.0
40.1
+8.2
+2.7
+6.4
+7.2
+8.6
1
+1.2
+1.8
44.9
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-0.8
-0.4
-1.2
1.3
4.4
5.5
3.8
2.9
0.7
1.9
2.4
0.4
2.9
1.8
0.8
+0.6
-0.6
+1.5
-0.5
-1.9
+0.1
-1.4
+0.9
+0.2
+1.0
-0.2
-0.9
42.7
+1.1
+1.1
+1.3
-3.2
+0.7
Growth rates are based on estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of current month and end of previous month reported data.
NOTE: Reserve Requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969. and requirements on bank-related comerieal paper are included beginning
October 1, 1970.
p - Preliminary.
April 12,
1974
Appendix Table II
RESERVES ANDMONETARY
VARIABLES
(Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)
RECaSFES
I
NonPernalm
-.
(1)
oved
bo
(2)
MONEIV
STOV MA
I.
........
Available
to Support
n,-..4,Iv
p,.
(3)
ST-CK
Tot
Total
Pvt.
Nt. __.
Dep,. 4I
29,193
31,299
31,410
28,861
31,173
30,360
27,099
28,965
29,053
MQEILXY:
1973--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
32.199
31,634
31,910
31,037
30.040
30,085
29,439
29,368
29,621
256.7
257.9
258.1
199.6
200.4
200.1
Apr.
May
June
32,300
32,445
32,459
30,589
30,602
30,608
29,867
30,114
30,548
259.4
262.4
265.5
luly
Aug.
Sept.
33,576
33,906
34,173
31,622
31,741
32,321
31,358
32.038
32,394
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
34,942
34,857
35,105
33,466
33,463
33,807
1974--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
35,850
35,108
34,952
2
9
16
23
30
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
if
.....
De
ANDeALLY
Dec.
1970
1971
Dee.
Dec.
1972
WEEKLY:
1974--Jan.
Samx
RES
-
(7)
. .
RANi CIRJnTT.MNASURES
C.
..RDT.
.
EASURES
Total
Adjusted
Credit
Sroxy
Investmenca
(9)
(9)
.
VTHER
Time
Other
Loans &
Ilme
Inan
-
Cuus
(iL)
i
Thrift
Institution
1
eoss
n'
Nan-
U.S.
Gov' t
u
ruma
u
(15)
641.2
726.9
822.4
332.9
364.3
406.4
203.9
237.9
269.9
216.1
253.9
296.9
25.3
33.0
43.4
6.5
6.1
6.1
529.6
532.3
534.6
830.4
836.7
841.7
409.7
413.5
421.2
272.8
274.4
276.6
300.8
304.4
307.0
44.7
49.1
54.6
6.7
6.1
7.6
200.8
203.4
206.2
538.3
543.6
549.4
847.7
855.0
863.5
426.6
430.5
434.5
278.9
281.3
283.8
309.4
311.4
314.2
58.4
61.1
62.0
7.1
5.2
5.3
266.4
266.2
265.4
207.0
206.4
205.2
552.0
554.9
556.6
867.9
870.9
873.2
437.6
443.8
285.6
445.9
288.7
291.2
315."
315."
316 b
66 .7
66(.7
3.
4.8
5.0)
32,845
32,714
32,912
266.5
268.8
270.4
206.1
207.9
208.8
561.6
566.7
570.7
879.8
886.9
893.2
446.5
447.5
449.6
295.1
297.8
300.3
318.3
320.2
322.5
63.8
62.0
62.8
6.0
5.8
4,9
34,799
33,916
33,638
32,799
32,791
33,122
269.6
272.5
274.9
207.8
210.0
211.7
573.7
580.1
584.3
898.4
906.8
913.4
454.3
454.8
459.3
304.1
307.6
309.4
324.7
326.7
329.1
65.5
66.6
67.7
6.2
3.0
3.7
35,312
35,752
36,521
35,747
35,628
34,102
34,976
35,533
34,565
34,408
32,921
32,747
33,075
32,488
32,875
270.3
269.5
270.0
268.9
268.4
208.8
207.8
208.2
206.9
206.5
572.6
572.0
573.7
573.7
573.7
452.5
453.1
454.0
302.2
302.5
303.7
304.8
305.3
64.3
64.8
64.7
65.8
67.1
6.0
6.8
6.5
6.2
5.5
6
13
20
27
35,199
35,167
35,277
34,865
34,201
34,014
33,901
33,614
32,641
32,739
32,795
32,921
270.9
271.8
274.6
272.3
208.5
209.3
211.9
209.8
577.3
579.1
582.6
581.2
455.5
454.5
453.7
454.8
306.4
307.2
308.0
308.8
66.8
67.0
66.4
66.2
4 5
2.5
1 5
3.1
6
13
20
27 p
34,663
34,792
35,233
34,781
33,751
33,809
33,750
33,068
33,134
32,937
33,214
33,090
275.8
274.8
274.5
274.3
212.7
211.6
211.3
211.0
584.7
583.9
584.0
583.9
458.2
456.4
459.3
460.3
308.9
309.0
309.6
65.9
66.8
67.1
68.8
4.2
3.0
4.0
3.6
35,475
33,972
33,319
276.0
212.6
586.1
466.4
310.1
71.2
4.8
3
p
453.5
454.5
309.5
Estimated monthly average levels derived by averaging end of durrent month and end of previous month reported data.
p - Preliminary.
NOTE: Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related co ercial paper are included beginning October 1,
1970.
Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S.
banks.
Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks.
Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank commercial paper figures which are for last day of month.
Weekly data are not available for M3, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits.
Appendix Table III
Growth Rate in Money Supply
(Per cent change at an annual rate)
M2
M,
1972
M
Q
M
I
9.0
5.3
12.3
11.0
14.6
13.2
II
6.2
8.2
8.9
9.8
10.9
12.0
8.7
8.2
10.8
10.8
12.8
12.6
IV
9.9
8.4
10.6
10.2
11.8
11.8
I
3.8
II
11.5
III
-0.2
III
1973
IV
1974
N3
I
7.5
6.7
6.9
11.1
5.2
Q
M
9.4
10.4
Q
10.7
9.1
4.5
7.2
10.1
9.2
7.3
9.5
9.0
8.8
M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final
months of the quarters.
Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of
the quarters.
Appendix Table IV
Growth Rates in Money Supply for Alternatives
(Per cent change at an annual rate)
M_
M2
H
3M
M
Alt.
1974 II
III
II & III combined
7.1
6.4
6.7
M
A
8.8
6.5
7.7
9.0
8.1
8.6
7.6
6.9
7.2
8.6
6.9
7.8
6.3
5.9
6.1
7.9
6.1
7.0
6.3
4.8
5.5
7.6
5.1
6.3
Alt. B
1974 II
III
II & III combined
6.5
5.7
6.1
8.5
5.8
7.2
Alt. C
1974 II
III
II & III combined
6.0
4.7
5.3
8.1
4.9
6.5
M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months
of quarter.
Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the
quarters.
@FedFRASER