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V o l . 11, No. 8 Washington, D. C. " W e seek peace—enduring peace. MAY More than an end to war, we want an end to the beginnings of all wars—yes, an end to this brutal, inhuman, and thoroughly impractical method of settling the differences between governments. "Today we are faced with the preeminent fact that, if civilization is to survive, we must cultivate the science of human relationships—the ability of all peoples, of all kinds, to live together and work together, in the same world, at peace. "The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today. Let us move forward with strong and active faith.11 ^-yS^/^tW 1945 FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK Contents in1 Page SECURITIES FOR THE BOND PORTFOLIO By: Everett Smith, Fiscal A g e n t , F H L Banks 219 THE LIQUIDITY PATTERN LAST YEAR Annual analysis of trends in all insured associations Vol. 11 No. 8 223 WHAT'S NEW IN HOUSING RESEARCH? Some recent technical developments 226 THE PATH WE HAVE TRAVELED Study of long-term savings and loan cycle The Federal Home Loan Bank Review is published monthly by the Federal Home Loan Bank Administration under the direction of a staff editorial com- 229 INDIVIDUAL SAVINGS AND WAR FINANCE Significance of savings in the Seventh W a r Loan STATISTICAL 235 DATA New family-dwelling units 242-243 for interpretations, opinions, summaries, Building costs 243-244 and other text, except that which ap- Savings and loan lending 244-245 pears in the form of official statements Mortgage 245-246 and signed articles. Sales of U. S. war savings bonds 246 F H A activity 246 mittee. This committee is responsible Each issue is written for executives of thrift and home-financing institutions, especially those whose organizations are insured by the Loan Federal Savings Insurance Corporation and members of the Federal Home and are Loan Bank System. Communications concerning material which has been printed or which is desired for publication should be sent to the Editor of the Review, Federal Home Loan Bank Building, Washington recordings Federal Home Loan Banks , 246 Insured savings and loan associations 247 Savings held by institutions 247 Foreclosures 247 REGULAR DEPARTMENTS Directory Changes of Member, Federal, and Insured Institutions 233 Home Front 234 Monthly Survey 237 * 25, Contents of this publication are not copyrighted may be printed freely D. C. • • and • * The Federal H o m e Loan Bank A d m i n istration assumes no responsibility for material obtained from sources other than itself or other instrumentalities of the Federal Government. 218 SUBSCRIPTION PRICE OF REVIEW.—A copy of the REVIEW is sent to each member and insured institution without charge. To others the annual subscription price, which covers the cost of paper and printing, is $1. Single copies will be sold at 10 cents. Outside of the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the insular possessions, subscription price is $1.60; single copies, 15 cents. Subscriptions and orders for individual copies should be sent with remittances to the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. APPROVED BY THE BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. Federal Home Loan Bank Revi SECURITIES FOR THE BOND PORTFOLIO This article summarizes the salient points which members will wish to bear in mind in selecting securities for their Government portfolio. It does not undertake to establish any optimum pattern for investment since requirements vary infinitely both by institution and by area. \y EVERETT SMITH, Fiscal Agent federal Home Loan Banks yield from the latter exceeds that from partially tax exempts with similar maturities. | Marketable vs. Non-Negotiable Issues D U R I N G the past few years a marked change has occurred in the composition of the assets of avings and loan associations. From a position of Native unimportance in 1941, holdings of Treasury •ssues have increased until they now constitute close 0 one-quarter of the assets of the average associa1011 throughout the country. Government obligaions have various features or characteristics inherent 1 the terms of their issue, other than those of maturiies and coupon rates, which must be understood aud arefully examined in building a portfolio. . The resence or absence of these factors, a discussion of Inch follows, to a large extent will govern the seleeion of issues and determine those which are approbate for the funds which are to be invested. oupon Bonds vs. Registered Bonds Generally bonds are registered in order to provide hysical safety. If adequate safekeeping facilities re available it is desirable that bonds should be cared in coupon form. When selling registered bonds le dealers in Government securities will usually bid /32nd—it may be l/64th for issues for which there a strong demand—below the quotation for similar onds in coupon form, or if it is desire first to convert le registered issue into coupon bonds a period of vo to three weeks is likely to ensue before the exlange has been completed, at the end of which time le market may be quite different from that existing irlier. Coupon bonds for the most part are readv marketable without concession from the current notations. taxable vs. Partially Tax Exempt Issues Little need be said to savings and loan managers meerning this feature since income from Governient securities received by associations is exempt om taxation. Some association portfolios include few partially tax exempt issues. I t would seem ^sirable that all partially tax exempt bonds be sold xd the funds reinvested in taxable issues, since the \ay 1945 The non-marketable bonds held by associations, chiefly Series F and G savings bonds, are redeemable after six months from date of issue on the first of any month on one month's notice at fixed prices stated in the terms of the issues. The full coupon income from these non-negotiable bonds can be obtained only if they are held throughout the full term of years to maturity. There is no market risk attached to these bonds, since they are redeemable at certain stated prices. However, as an offset for this absence of market risk, the holder sacrifices immediate liquidity and the probability, in many issues, of some price appreciation which may reasonably be expected over a period of time so long as the Treasury maintains its current pattern of interest rates. The marketable bonds, by contrast, are subject to price changes, but for the most part they may be liquidated when desired. Furthermore they will produce a definite income which is determined at the outset when the purchase is made and which will continue throughout the period during which they are held. Funds of a clearly long-term nature, the investment of which is likely to be of a somewhat permanent character, may well be invested in nonnegotiable issues. Conversely, funds of a shorter nature which may be needed for home financing or to meet withdrawals during the next few years, more logically should be invested in marketable issues which may be readily liquidated when the money is needed. Restricted vs. Non-Restricted Bonds It has become generally accepted that the major portion of the investments of commercial banks in Government securities shall be in issues with maturities of 10 years or less, because of the more liquid character of the issues within that grouping. For that reason, most long-term bonds issued by the Treasmy in recent years have carried a restriction that they may not be owned by commercial banks 219 for 10 years from date of issue. This restriction on the ownership of long-term bonds is an influential market factor. About 45 percent of all the outstanding marketable Treasury bonds are held by the banks and, consequently, those which are eligible for bank ownership are more widely distributed, are more actively traded and are more readily marketable. I t is important to note the change in this restrictive feature in the new 2% percent and 2% percent bonds which will be offered in the Seventh War Loan. The period of restriction on those bonds has been lengthened and they will be ineligible for ownership by the commercial banks until within 10 years of maturity date instead of date of issue as heretofore. This will result in seven years of restriction of the 2}{ percent and 17 years for the 2){ percent bonds. In large part these long-term iueligible bonds are held by insurance companies, savings banks, trust and other investors of long-term funds, which generally buy for investment on a yield basis and so do not trade in Government bonds to any material extent. By contrast it should be noted that the nonrestricted or eligible bonds are widely held by commercial banks throughout the country, as well as other investors of shorter term funds, and that they possess a higher degree of liquidity or marketability than the restricted issues. The latter, to be sure, may be used as collateral for advances from the Federal Home Loan Banks, but in that event the association's line of credit is correspondingly reduced, while the sale of an issue provides the desired funds without reducing the available credit. "Interest Curve** There has been wide discussion particularly during recent months of the so-called "interest curve" or "Treasury yield curve" and the relationship of some issues, especially the 2-percent bonds, to that "curve." Since an understanding of this "interest curve" is important because of its effect on the market price of many bond issues, a brief outline of its origin and influence is pertinent. In the fall of 1942 when the Treasury commenced its vast war-financing program it announced that interest rates had been fixed on certain maturities and that 90-day Treasury bills would carry % of 1 percent interest with a maximum rate of 2 percent on bonds with maturities of not over 10 years. Thus a pattern developed under which 90-day Treasury bills bear an interest rate of % of 1 percent; one-year certificates of indebtedness, 220 7 s percent; 4—4^ year notes, 1% percent; 8-10-yea bonds, 2 percent and long-term bonds 2% percent. This pattern of short-term money at low interes rates and longer-term money at higher rates ha become so generally accepted that it is sometime overlooked that historically the short-term interes rate for considerable periods has been equal to o even exceeded the long-term rate. As long as th level of interest rates adopted in 1942 was main tained, the 9-10 year 2-percent bonds, as the; shortened to about four years before their caJ dates, automatically conformed to the rate estab lished for four-year money, which was V/2 percent In order that an issue carrying a 2-percent coupo might give a return of about lK percent, it has t rise in price to a premium of a little over 2 points equivalent to an annual appreciation at the rate c about y2 point. Thus it came about that m a n investors who subscribed for the 2-percent issues a par experienced an appreciation of about % point year for approximately the first four years in additio to the coupon income of 2 percent, or an aggregat return in the neighborhood of 2}{ percent a yeai The 2-percent issues under the "interest curve then existing tended to level off in price about fou years from their call dates and then commence gradually to lose their premiums until they reache par at call date. As long as that pattern of intern rates was maintained it was possible to forecast wit a fair degree of accuracy the general price movement of various Treasury issues over a period of month; In November 1944, the British Treasury made notable change in the rate of interest and the rm turity of its major bond issue for financing the wa I t discontinued the offering of 2^-percent bond; due in 1954 and callable in 1952, and in their plac issued 1%-percent bonds due in 1950. This actio was interpreted as a definite lowering of the level ( interest rates by the British Treasury and as a for< runner of similar action by the United State Treasury. This widely accepted belief that the United State Treasury would also reduce its pattern of interes rates resulted in a material rise in the prices of man Treasury issues with a consequent lessening of yield a market condition which made inevitable the lowe ing of the previously existing rate structure. Tl extent of this decline from as recently as Decembc 1944 may be seen in the movement of the 2-percet 8-10 year bonds which have declined in yield a] proximately % percent, reflecting a price increase ( about 2% points since being quoted in the ope Federal Home Loan Bank Revie narket, while the 2%-percent bonds of 1972/67, the mly long-term 2%-percent bonds eligible for purchase >y commercial banks, which were then selling at 00.22 to yield 2.46 percent, are now quoted about > points higher to yield approximately 2.28 per•ent and the maximum price rises and the mininum yields may not even yet have been reached n the longer maturities. The elimination by the Treasury of the popular unrestricted medium-term ssues, the 2-percent bonds, has been instrumental n furthering this market trend as has a growing ealization that the Treasury is likely to limit future >fferings to the commercial banks to short-term, lowdeld issues probably with coupons not exceeding }i percent, or perhaps even lower. It is anticipated that the volume of the shortererm, lower-yield issues will not only continue but vill expand further since the Secretary of the Treasury, himself, has stated recently that he does lot "see any need for a wholesale postwar funding »f the public debt into long-term bonds. In the irst place it would cost the taxpayers more in interest. \Text, it would shift whatever risk there is inherent ii fluctuating interest rates from the Government, vdiich is able to bear it, to individuals, institutions nd corporations." 1 While the bulk of the taxable issues eligible for nirchase by the commercial banks fall within the 0-year classification, all of the restricted issues xceed 10 years in maturity. Thus, a sharp distincion has developed between the two groups of issues »y reason of their maturities. The recent market ction of the unrestricted and eligible issues has >een in contrast to that of the restricted bonds and hows definite evidence of the development of a iwer-yield curve for the bank-eligible issues but a ontinuation of the pattern described above for the estricted issues. The premiums on the 2-percent bonds have also ended to equalize so that most of the issues are now •riced within a few thirty-seconds of the others •respective of their maturities. This change from tie previously defined "interest curve" has altered lie former price trend so that now the 2-percent onds differ between issues in the main because of heir yields and maturities, while the factor of price ppreciation which formerly could be reasonably nticipated on the interest curve is now largely bsent. Pricewise, the "two's" may tend to move s a unit and, if so, there will no longer be oppori The Hon. Henry A. Morgenthau, Jr., Secretary of the Treasury, Los Angeles ar Bond Rally, October 14, 1944. Way 1945 tunity for an investor to dispose of a shorter issue when it has reached its ceiling price on the yield curve and to reinvest in a longer issue with reasonable assurance of price appreciation over a period of time. Desirable Portfolios I t is impractical to attempt to outline a standard portfolio or an ideal list of Treasury issues for savings and loan associations because of the infinite variety of conditions throughout the country affecting their operations. However, some general conclusions may be stated. Before the most desirable issues for the portfolio can be selected it is necessary to make a forecast of the probable future needs of the association for the funds to be invested, the nature of the funds and the probable time when it will wish to convert at least a portion of its bonds into cash. If a particular association looks upon its Government-bond portfolio only as the temporary investment of funds pending the resumption of a demand for home financing, that institution should make investments largely in securities that will enjoy the most ready market in the immediate post-war period. If, on the other hand, a particular institution considers its Government-bond portfolio as a long-term investment, greater emphasis may be put on higher yields and less on liquidity or marketability. As to the nature of their funds, associations have varying experience, with the average life of their savings and investment accounts depending on location, size, tradition and management policies. An index < f the average life of the savings accounts can be coi puted by dividing the average amount of share accounts of the associations into their total annual withdrawals. Such an index reveals that in the stable communities, well managed, established associations typically experience withdrawals in a year's time as low as from 8 to 10 percent of their average total share accounts. In other words, the average life of the share account in these stable institutions has ranged from 10 to 12 years. A very different experience is noticed among some associations in industrial cities, where total withdrawals during the year frequently range from 35 to 50 percent of the association's share capital. In short, investment accounts in these associations often remain with the association for an average of only three to four years. Associations which experience a high share-capital turnover (that is where total annual withdrawals 221 represent a high percentage of the association's share capital) have an investment problem quite different from that of associations whose savings and investment accounts are very stable. Consequently, one of the first considerations in building a share portfolio should be an examination of the association's sharecapital turnover, coupled with a forecast of the probabilities as to the association's furure needs for the funds being invested. If the analysis reveals that withdrawals represent a high percent of the institution's average share capital and that such withdrawals are likely to continue to be relatively high as a percentage of share capital in the future, the association should build a bond portfolio with emphasis on ready marketability. Likewise, if the institution is located in a communit}^ where a large post-war home-financing demand is likely to develop so it will wish to convert its bond holdings into loanable cash, bonds which are likely to enjoy high marketability in the post-war period should be chosen. In brief, an institution which has a highly volatile share capital, which expects a continuation of a large withdrawal ratio, and which is located in a community where a large peacetime increase in loan demand is expected, will want to build a diversified portfolio with major emphasis on short- and medium-term maturities that enjoy high marketability. On the other hand, the institution whose experience shows that its share capital is very stable, whose present savers and investors are not likely to withdraw large amounts of funds and which is located in a community where a large peacetime loan demand is not likely to arise, may consider it desirable to put greater emphasis on bonds with medium- and longer-term maturities because of the higher yields. Permanent Investments In general, associations now own more Government securities than they will wish to carry as a permanent investment. That being true, the comparative marketability of the several types of securities is important. For the most part, those issues having maturities within 10 years will meet the requirement of liquidity or ready marketability. They include one year, % percent certificates, notes which mature within four years, and intermediate bonds. All of these are quoted in the open market at premiums to yield from a fraction of 1 percent to a little over 11/2 percent on the longest of the 2-percent issues. The intermediate and long 2-percent bonds, as noted above, have appreciated in price materially. I t would seem desirable for the average association 222 to retain its holdings in these issues, thus keepinj a portion of its assets in highly liquid form for us when needed. Since, in the absence of a change ii the level of interest rates which seems improbable fo some time to come, they may be expected to hol< around these price levels; there need be no immediat liquidation in order to take profits which migh otherwise soon vanish. If a substantial portion of the portfolio consists of the eligible issues du within 10 years, the association will be in a stron liquid position, well able to meet demands. The restricted issues might provide an outlet fo that part of the investible fund which analysis, a already outlined, discloses may reasonably b classified as suitable for longer-term investment Among such issues, the 2}{ percent bonds of 1959/5 are most attractive for the immediate investmen of funds. This issue will become eligible for purchas by commercial banks in September 1946 at whic time it may be expected to reach a yield basi comparable with other eligible issues of abou equal maturity. In addition to this potential pric appreciation, it should then acquire about the sam high degree of marketability which now attaches t the 2-percent issues. For the most part the long term bonds possess a lesser degree of liquidity tha the intermediate- and short-term issues and are no suitable for the investment of short-term funds. When all the factors determining the natui of the funds to be invested and the condition previously outlined which now and in the futur will affect an association's position have bee examined and analyzed, and a judicious selectio made of short, intermediate and long-term issues the result will be a well balanced, liquid portfoli tailored to individual association requirements. Migration and Post-War Employmen • I N a recent study of industrial concentration conducted by the Department of Commerce it was concluded that in general the problems of post war reemployment could not be solved by movin people to other parts of the country where job op portunities would await them, for the wartime es pansion of industry has occurred in almost all areas Until the peacetime national output of goods an services substantially exceeds the pre-war level, n area will act as a vacuum to attract excess workei from war-production centers. 1 "Wartime Changes in Regional Concentration," Survey of Current Busineh March 1945. Federal Home Loan Bank Review THE LIQUIDITY PATTERN LAST YEAR Liquid assets of all insured savings and loan associations reached a new peak last year, although the rate of increase was considerably diminished. The fact that the entire gain was concentrated in Government-bond holdings indicates the measure of support given by these institutions to the war-financing program. • AN analysis of the liquid assets of all insured savings and loan associations in 1944 emphasizes the fact that the previous strong position of these institutions was further improved last year. It also reveals some interesting changes which occurred in the liquidity pattern that has been established during the war years. The aggregate cash and Government-bond holdings of these associations stood at the all-time high of $1,497,000,000 at the close of 1944, compared with $884,000,000 the preceding year. This represented the largest dollar increase on record—$613,000,000. The year's gain was larger than total liquid assets held in 1941 or 1942. However, percentagewise, the 69-percent advance in 1944 was the smallest shown in the last three years. The slackening in the rate of growth is not surprising at this stage and does not indicate any weakening of the strong liquidity position of insured associations. Once funds have reached the high volume recorded in 1943, something considerably less than the 97-percent gain shown during that year may reasonably be expected. As a result of the large dollar increase in 1944, the proportion of liquid resources to total assets rose from 21.1 percent to 29.9 percent and the liquidity-to-share capital ratio advanced from 24.7 to 34.5 percent. It is signficant that the record increase in liquid assets occurred simultaneously with the post-depression high in mortgage lending when excess funds were finding an outlet in the mortgage market. At the same time, financing operations of these insured associations resulted in a $23,000,000 increase in their Federal Home Loan Bank advances outstanding. Repurchases of Government investments in these institutions totaled $32,000,000, making an over-all retirement of $9,000,000. This is in direct contrast to 1943 when outstanding advances declined approximately $14,000,000 and nearly $100,000,000 was used to repurchase Government-share investments. As shown in the accompanying chart, the percentage increase in liquid assets of all insured associations far outstripped that of any other balance-sheet item. May 1945 In spite of the fact that this rate of gain had dropped from 97 to 69 percent last year, it was still over three times as great as that shown by private share capital or total assets, four and one-half times more than the gain in reserves and undivided profits, and more than eight times the advance in net first mortgages held. These trends should not be interpreted as evidence of the setting of permanent patterns. They are based on the abnormalities of wartime operation and will undoubtedly tend to disappear as ordinary business conditions return. Increase Entirely in "Governments" The interesting thing about the 1944 gain in liquid assets was that, in contrast to 1943, the entire advance was in the Government-bond account which more than doubled, rising $646,000,000 to a total of $1,227,000,000. These Government obligations represented a sum equal to 28 percent of the private share-capital account and 24 percent of total assets. In 1943, corresponding ratios were 16 percent and 14 percent, respectively. This large increase is substantial testimony of the part being played by insured associations in the Government's war-financing program. Thus, a patriotic duty pro- PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN SELECTED BALANCE SHEET ITEMS ALL INSURED SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS 1944 O 10 OVER 20 1943 PERCENT 30 40 50 60 CASH AND GOVT. OBLIGATIONS PRIVATE SHARE CAPITAL RESERVES AND UNDIVIDED PROFIT TOTAL ASSETS NET FIRST MORTGAGES 223 during the previous year—66 percent compared with 58 percent. The greatest slackening of increase occurred in the Boston District where liquid assets, which had risen 145 percent in 1943, advanced b u t 62 percent last year. Only 10 scattered states reported greater 1944 increases in liquid assets than had been registered during the preceding year. Federal associations showed an increase of 76 percent in liquid assets while those of state-chartered associations rose 59 percent. Liquidity-Capital Ratio Up vides a sound way of realizing some return on funds for which, during the war, there has been a restricted mortgage market. Cash on hand in all insured associations declined $32,856,000, or 11 percent, during 1944. I t stood at $269,701,000 at the year-end when it represented 6 percent of private capital and 5 percent of total assets. The year before these ratios had been 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively. A geographical breakdown of the components of liquidity shows a universal increase in Governmentbond holdings but a spottier picture in the cash accounts. Only Boston and Pittsburgh (the latter with 12 new associations) had more cash on hand at the end of 1944 than in December 1943. In the former region, all states but Connecticut and Vermont showed gains, while all three states in the latter District reported increases. Five other scattered states—Florida, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming and Arizona—registered slight increases. On a combined basis of cash and Government bonds, all Districts reported increases, although the rates of advance were not generally on a par with the previous year's gains. Increases ranged from 54 percent in Cincinnati to 101 percent in Los Angeles. The latter District was the only one to duplicate the record, achieved by six regions in 1943, of at least doubling liquid assets during the year. Only Topeka reported a greater increase in 1944 than 224 The real measures of liquidity lie in the relationship of liquid assets to private repurchasable capital and to total assets. Both of these tests revealed a considerable strengthening of the liquidity position of insured associations during 1944. The chart in this column shows that last year these ratios w^ere approximately four times as great as those of 1941, chiefly because of the enormous expansion in Government-bond holdings. The ratio of cash and Government obligations last year was 34.5 percent of private repurchasable capital compared with 24.7 percent in 1943 and only 9.6 percent in 1941. Thus, the average insured savings and loan association was maintaining a liquiditycapital ratio of about $1 out of every $3. Every Federal Home Loan Bank District showed an increasing accumulation of liquid assets in proportion to share capital last year. The highest ratio, for the fourth successive year, was in Portland which reported a ratio of 50.0 percent compared with 35.4 percent in 1943. Pittsburgh, with a ratio of 24.8 percent was the lowest, while nine Bank Districts showed 30 percent or better. Federal Home Loan Bank Review Ratio to Assets A l s o Gains The rising trend of liquidity was also reflected in the increased ratio of cash and Government obligations to total assets. In 1944, this figure was 29.9 percent compared with 21.1 in 1943 and 7.4 in 1941. In other words, the average insured association had a liquidity-asset ratio of almost $1 out of every $3 last year. In 1943, this relationship was $1 to $5, and in 1941 it was $1 to $13. Again, all Bank Districts and all 'states, except Rhode Island, shared in this increase. Liquidityasset ratios ranged from 43.5 percent in Portland to 21.2 percent in Little Rock. These two regions occupied the same relative positions in 1943 but at that time represented a range between 30.5 and 15.6 percent, respectively. In 1943, nine Bank Districts reported ratios which were lower than the smallest one shown in 1944. Cash a n d Government obligations of insured savings a n d loan associations, 1 9 4 4 - 1 9 4 3 [Dollar amounts are shown in thousands] District a n d S t a t e I t is difficult to forecast the future course of liquidity trends. Some of the same conditions which have been instrumental in the establishment of the present liquid position of these associations may remain operative. Preliminary data indicate that mortgage-loan repayments and prepayments are being maintained far ahead of schedule. While it is hoped that construction lending will show increasing expansion, there is no assurance that this will very soon have a drastic effect on funds which have been accumulating in cash and Government bonds. Also, since the war is far from won or paid for, continued participation in the Government's financing operations will, for an undetermined length of time, be a major concern. However, since the War Production Board's "Period One" (reconversion between the defeat of Germany and Japan's capitulation) materialized this year, heavier withdrawals may absorb some of the money now represented by liquid assets. The crucial role of these funds in the post-war years was pointed out in the March R E V I E W ("The Dual Functions of Liquidity"). I t seems evident that the present position of insured associations augurs well for them in the future since a substantial shock absorber is present to meet contingencies. These liquid funds, if carefully managed, may be a safeguard against deflation in the post-war period. On the other hand, however, unless lending institutions proceed with caution in making loans, there may be a serious danger of post-war inflation. May 194S T o t a l cash a n d Gove r n m e n t obligations 1944 1943 As a percent of 1944 Percent increase Share capital Assets + 19 $1, 497, 152 $884, 207 69.3 34.5 29.9 . 0 71, 023 43,809 62.1 30.7 26. 7 C onnecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire R h o d e Island Vermont 0 0 0 0 0 0 20, 434 676 42, 292 5,899 229 1,493 12,181 194 25, 779 4,364 177 _,114 67.8 248.5 64.1 35.2 29.4 34.0 30.7 30.9 29.8 48.3 7.3 28.4 27.2 26.8 25.9 39.2 6.0 25.2 U N I T E D STATES Boston - +3 162, 948 94, 350 72.7 31.4 27.2 + 1 +2 48, 643 114, 305 29, 568 64, 782 64.5 76.4 32.0 31.2 27.2 27.2 + 12 67,155 40, 326 66.5 24.8 21.4 0 + 12 0 49 60, 395 6,711 26 35, 758 4,542 88.5 68.9 47.8 10.4 24.4 29.6 9.9 21. 0 25.4 _ .. + 1 160, 643 83, 398 92.6 34.8 30.4 Alabama . _ D i s t . of C o l u m b i a . _ Florida. _ _ Georgia _____ M a r l y a n d __ N o r t h C a r o l i n a . _ ._ S o u t h Carolina Virginia. _ _ 0 0 0 0 +1 0 0 0 5,771 13,194 49,812 18, 323 24, 543 23, 336 11,818 13,846 4,348 8,252 23, 268 9,319 10, 612 13,029 6,895 7,675 32.7 59.9 114.1 96.6 131.3 79.1 71.4 80.4 27.7 24.3 47.5 31.0 32.1 38.5 34.4 27.0 25.4 21.9 40.9 27.2 26.8 34.4 31.5 23.6 -1 333,131 216, 327 54.0 40.9 36. 0 17, 626 189, 592 9,109 59.3 53.2 60.9 35.2 42.0 33.7 31.8 36.9 29.7 New York __ N e w Jersey N e w York Pittsburgh _ Delaware P e n n s y l v a n i a . . . __ West Virginia _ _ _ Winston-Salem Future Possibilities Change in n u m ber of associations C i n c i n n a t i . __ Kentucky, Ohio Tennessee _____ Indianapolis Indiana Michigan __ __ _ __ Chicago. Illinois Wisconsin Des Moines __ __ . Iowa __ Minnesota Missouri __ North Dakota South Dakota Little Rock . Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi._ ___ _ N e w Mexico. Texas Topeka __ ___ ___ Colorado. Kansas __ Nebraska _ _ O k l a h o m a . _ __ Portland _ I d a h o __ _ __ Montana Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming Los Angeles Arizona California Nevada.. __ ___ _ _ __ -1 +1 -1 28, 086 290, 388 14, 657 0 120,151 76, 050 58.0 39.4 34.8 0 0 73, 270 46,881 48, 587 27, 463 50.8 70.7 38.7 40.7 34.2 35.8 +8 142,311 82, 326 72.9 31.4 26.6 +5 +3 115,810 26, 501 66, 833 15, 493 73.3 71.1 32.8 26.3 27.9 22.2 -2 86, 626 48,817 77.5 33.9 30.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 12.204 44, 712 23, 407 5,251 1,052 6,312 23, 590 15, 076 3,026 813 93.3 89.5 55.3 73.5 29.4 30.0 45.2 22.8 53.5 33.1 27.2 39.5 20. 1 48.6 30. 3 -1 60, 727 41, 042 48.0 25.1 21.2 0 0 0 0 -1 4,098 20, 728 2,514 2,332 31, 055 2,974 14,114 1,752 1,584 20, 618 37.8 46.9 43.5 47.2 50.6 23.8 23.1 24.3 31.7 26.4 20.4 18.7 21.8 28.3 22.8 +1 48, 079 29, 041 65.6 28.2 24.6 +1 0 0 0 12, 755 13, 819 4,127 17, 378 7,771 7,973 2,216 11,081 64.1 73.3 86.2 56.8 35.1 26.9 33.4 24.7 30. 1 23.5 28.6 21.7 -1 106, 247 59,860 77.5 50.0 43.5 0 0 0 0 -1 0 7,144 5,689 12, 286 12, 346 65,877 2,514 3,326 3,633 6,387 7,505 37, 475 1,276 114.8 56.6 92.3 64.5 75.8 97.0 55.9 44.3 46.4 47.1 51.6 42.2 48.7 39. 1 39.2 37.9 45.9 37.3 -1 138, 111 68, 861 100.6 34.7 28.4 0 -1 0 6, 315 129, 322 469 1,648 65, 603 373 283.2 97.1 25.7 60.5 33.9 42.4 49.5 27.7 39.4 225 WHAT'S NEW IN HOUSING RESEARCH? Since institutional lenders cannot ethically experiment with trust money, their full participation in post-war financing of new-type structures depends on the knowledge of their soundness. This article, designed to give some highlights of recent research, has been prepared with the assistance of the Technical Division, National Housing Agency. H NOT only is the wartime volume of home building much less than normal but the design and quality of houses now going up are considerably different from pre-war years. However, in these very differences lies much that will eventually speed the evolution of the house of tomorrow. This period of enforced improvising to conserve what we have and to find something else that will do gives promise that the housing industry and the home owner will be the long-term beneficiaries of the manifestation of "Yankee ingenuity" which is being demonstrated now in technical research. Of course, housing research is by no means entirely a product of wartime necessity. However, the very fact that we have had to learn a lot, and in a hurry, means that the housing industry is much farther ahead than it would have been in an ordinary period of like duration. The big problem of the future will be not just to provide houses, but to be able to gear production to all income groups of the potential market that is waiting. This means, first, low-cost houses of substantial quality, and second, homes of increased comfort and convenience. The results of recent research, while they do not provide the final answers, point the way toward both these accomplishments. Broad Implications The implications of these developing innovations are as broad as the interests of the entire national economy and as specific as "next year's" loan portfolio. Reams have been written about the role of the construction industry as one of the bulwarks of our post-war economy. There seems little doubt that a tremendous potential market awaits the green light for the resumption of building activity, providing housing costs can be brought into line with average incomes. Research projects which uncover new possibilities and demonstrate their practicability play a definite part in bridging this gap. Mortgage lenders who know what is going on in new housing techniques will be in a position to make their institutions double beneficiaries of this recent 226 scientific investigation. Knowledge of the performance of new materials and methods can enable them to properly evaluate the loan-capital values of new type structures. Thus, as they are in a position to know what they are getting as security for their loans, they can safely broaden the scope of their operations. Futbermore, a well informed mortgage-lending industry can help in the general acceptance of sound construction standards and in accomplishing needed reforms in building codes, which in turn will add to the volume of low-cost residential construction. Housing research during the war has been conducted by many industrial concerns, trade associations, foundations and universities. Since 1943 some of these projects have been instituted and financed by Government funds advanced through the War Production Board's Office of Production Research and Development. The National Bureau of Standards has also played an important part in the testing of new and improved materials and techniques. Standardization One of the chief reasons for high costs in construction has been the "hand tailoring" of parts for site assembly into completed houses. The economic value of standardization of many components has long been discussed. Recently the American Standards Association issued a pamphlet, "Modular Planning as Related to Building Design," based on research sponsored by the American Institute of Architects and the Producers' Council. I t recommends the adoption of a 4-inch module for building construction. The adoption of this standard would mean that, instead of the miscellaneous and unrelated sizes now used, dimensions would be in multiples of four wherever practicable. Thus, manufacturers would be able to concentrate chiefly on standard-sized items and builders would be assured that these parts would fit without filling or cutting. To obtain the advantages of modular planning and dimensional coordination, building plans and specifications would have to be correlated with the dimensions of materials. Federal Home Loan Bank Review It is not contemplated that these "standard" parts would entirely eliminate the production or use of all other dimensions established by architects or engineers. They would, however, permit a tremendous reduction in the number of types of models manufactured, and still properly serve the building industry. as plywoods, with a thermo-plastic coating to produce a finished surface of far greater wearing quality than any previously known protection. One product of this type used on floors provides a nonslip surface of more durability than wood itself. Waxing does not destroy the nonslip characteristics produced by the original treatment. New Kinds and Uses of Materials Interior Improvements New materials, and new combinations and different uses for products already on the market are common results of various investigations. The fact that these improved techniques often not only represent savings in themselves but permit more economical construction methods is illustrated by the example of a project carried out at Purdue University under O P R D auspices. Experiments in constructing temporary low-cost housing brought to light a type of single-wall construction which has interesting possibilities. This "sandwich" type of construction consists of producing in a factory, a wall panel which fits into the skeleton framing of a house. An inside and outside wearing surface are placed so as to leave space for prefabricated insulation to be inserted into the "sandwich" wall. Like many other of these research products, it has not been completely perfected as yet. However, current research has gone far enough to indicate that this type of wall, where composed of sufficiently lightweight materials, produces a quick and relatively inexpensive method for shop or field construction of a complete wall unit. Other types of wall materials which have been developed and tested make use of qualities of wood previously considered as unusable lumber, but which can be reinforced by combination with shredded or recombed fibers. I t has been found that, by compressing wood in heated presses, the density and wearing qualities can be greatly increased and the natural beauty of the wood enhanced. Thus treated, the product gives promise of being more satisfactory for flooring than natural wood. A great deal of progress has been made toward increasing knowledge about various kinds and uses of glues in wood construction. A plastic adhesive has been developed for use with light wall-board preparations. This and other experiments have developed a wide variety of glues to meet different conditions of manufacture and service and have greatly increased the serviceability of plywood in home construction. A lumber-plastic combination that has been found successful consists of treating lumber products, such Although the outer shell of the house has been found to absorb the greatest comparative cost of home construction, 1 it is not the only place where improvements can be made. Much of the research has been directed toward internal housing improvements, such as heating and sound-proofing. The possibilities of radiant heating are being explored from several angles. Already tests have shown that radiant heating panels in walls, floors and ceilings can frequently provide better heating than conventional methods. I t has been found that people can be comfortable with radiant heating at somewhat lower temperatures than otherwise. Thus, the lower the temperature, the less the heat loss through walls. This, of course, means a saving in fuel. A scientifically controlled study- of temperature, comfort and costs is one of the current projects of the National Bureau of Standards. 2 A related stud}* is being conducted to discover more about reflection and absorption of infra-red rays by various materials and substances. From the results of these tests it will be possible to select and develop structural surfaces and protective or decorative sheets or coatings which will be nonresistant to the flow of heat. May 194S Heating and Insulation Another interesting experiment has just been announced by an industrial firm, Green's ReadyBuilt Homes. In their plant at Rockford, Illinois, they have built—complete to the key in the door— what is said to be the first prefabricated solar house. This structure is a rectangle 58 feet across the front; it faces south to take full advantage of the winter sun and carries an inch of water on the roof in summer to produce coolness by evaporation. A three-foot roof overhang allows a maximum of sunlight in the front glass panels in the winter and no direct sunlight in the rooms in summer. The auxiliary heat from the sun's rays saves an estimated 30 1 See National Housing Bulletin 2 and "Lets Get More For Our Housing Dollar," FHLB REVIEW, December 1944, p. 70. 2 See Home Front, FHLB REVIEW, April 1945, p. 215. 227 percent in fuel costs while the principal heat unit is an innovation in itself. I t consists of a gas-fired furnace in the ground utility room (there is no basement) which forces hot air through tile ducts built into the floor (a principal in some respects similar to radiant heating). There are no visible beat outlets. The w^alls are made of separate plywood panels between which is sealed three inches of blanket insulation. The heavy glass panels which form the entire front section are also double with a three-inch dead air space between to prevent heat loss and the formation of moisture. The house is completely equipped but only an approximation of the cost is now possible. It is estimated, however, that similar structures will sell for between $6,000 and $8,500. The paper house, developed by the Institute of Paper Chemistry in Appleton, Wisconsin, is an interesting example of what has been done in the field of extremely low-cost, emergency housing. An account of the details of this experiment was given in the Home Front, F H L B R E V I E W , February 1945, page 163. Prefabrication has been receiving a great deal of attention, both in research laboratories and in public interest. The R E V I E W has previously touched on this subject. An indication of the extent to which plans and facilities for this type of housing now exist is contained in a recently revised list of 70 active prefab concerns, published by the NHA Technical Division. This is designed to be only a comprehensive representation of the industry. A limited number of copies of this listing and of the two Technical Bulletins (October 1944 and April 1945) which carry more detailed reports on Government projects are available from the Technical Division, National Housing Agency, Washington 25, D. C. A Good Start These few examples barely scratch the surface of what has been and is going on in the field of housing research. More will be reported from time to time. Not all tbe results so far are complete or perfect; much work remains. However, it is plain to be seen that our industrial "know how" has been developing rapidly and practically. I t is quite true that the post-war dream house—a paradise of gadgets—is only the product of over-enthusiastic iniaginations. Still, tomorrow's new houses will be cheaper, better and more plentiful because of the results of wartime research. 228 The W a r : Phase Two • ON the tenth of this month, Fred M. Vinson Director of War Mobilization and Reconversion transmitted to the President his report, The War Phase Two, in which he gave a summary of the effec' of VE-Day on the national economy and future planning for the war. The 10 basic assumptions upon which this report is predicated make it clear thai the severity of the war in the Pacific will grow as time passes and that the effects of cutbacks wil produce an uneven pattern in production, both fron industry to industry and from area to area. During the next six months, cuts in war production will n n from 10 to 15 percent of the current rate of output The high production needed for the Japanese war wil require that a great part of those now working ii war production stay on the job. Unemployment at the end of the next 12 months should not exceec from 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 persons and many o\ these will be only temporarily out of work. Fooc requirements will not decrease, and many Government controls over industry must be maintained tc assure war and essential civilian production. I t was emphasized that inflationary forces art expected to be a continuing menace, despite the enc of war in Europe. "Price and rationing controls wage controls, high taxes, and continued War Bone sales will be essential in keeping consumer buying within bounds." Housing Restrictions on home building will not end unti: manpower and materials are generally available However, it is anticipated that construction wil begin on at least 250,000 homes within the next 12 months, and it is quite possible that starts may gc as high as 400,000. In other words, residential construction started in this coming period may be expected to be equal to the 1935-1936 annual average H - 2 programs, approved by the National Housing Agency to provide newly constructed dwellings foi persons other than war workers in areas of acute housing shortage, authorized priority assistance foi the construction of 18,635 units as of April 30. All of these were for privately financed dwelling units. In addition, H - 3 applications, approved in cases ol individual hardship, authorized the construction oi 17,896 privately financed new homes and the provision of another 16,174 family units through conversion of existing structures. Federal Home Loan Bank Review THE PATH WE HAVE TRAVELED What has been the course of the savings and loan industry over the past 22 years—a period covering somewhat more than one complete lending cycle? From experiences gained during this time, what conclusions may be drawn for the present as to signs of trends ahead? • OCCASIONALLY, an excursion into the past can be one of the most profitable trips a business man can make—not merely reviewing the "good old days" but looking with a penetrating vision at the more trying times which can now be seen in clearer perspective than when they were upon us. In the field of home finance such examinations of the record under present circumstances have more than ordinary value. To the long-term lender, the success of whose business today rests so heavily upon developments of the future, these backward glances provide not only an indication of present direction, but also a crude yardstick by which one may measure the accuracy of earlier judgments. The record of the individual institution, is comparatively easy for management to study as a continuing guide to operations. This, together with the records of similar institutions in the general business area, provides a key to relative efficiency of operations under similar circumstances. The national record, though, represents the path the industry has followed as a whole. This article is intended to provide a brief analytic outline of the latter, the course the industry has taken over the past 22 years. upon their business. The dominant features in the chain of causality are fresh in everyone's memory, but it takes more than vague recollection to bring into clear focus the distinct features of the various trends. What were some of these features, the sum of which constitutes the total picture? Lending Our scene opens in 1922, on a rising market, not only in real estate but in other fields as well. The conflict of 1917-1918, like all major wars, left in its backwash economic dislocations and a swollen demand for virtually all lines of commodities, old as well as new. Amidst the boom psychology of the times the building industry was hurriedly moving in response to the rising demand for new homes—a demand voiced largely because of the greater diffusion of purchasing power among all strata of our population during and following the war. Riding the crest of the construction wave, lending by all operating savings and loan associations mounted rapidly. By 1925, the rental index and the annual volume of new home construction reached their peaks. However, lending by savings and loan associations continued to gain each year through Home-Financing Trends While trends within the home-financing business changed violently over the period, perhaps their products are more important than the trends themselves in that these results of cyclical fluctuations are milestones in the evolution of the industry. Not only do they mark the point from which postwar development will progress, but they also act as strong determinants of our future course. Several significant developments, some institutional in character, now dominate the scene as direct results of industry trends during the period 19221944: the creation of the Federal Home Loan Bank System and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation; a marked trend toward fewer, but larger associations; a strengthened reserve position; and a far deeper appreciation on the part of management of the influence of the economic cycle May 1945 MORTGAGE LOANS MADE ALL BILLIONS OPERATING SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS DECEMBER 31, 1 9 2 2 - 1 9 4 3 $2.0 | 229 1928, apparently due to a shift in emphasis to other than construction loans. Despite the earlier collapse of local booms such as in Florida, the real-estate market as a whole remained quite active. While other circumstances vary infinitely, it is a similar activity in the market for existing homes today that is supporting the growing volume of home-mortgage lending. From the peak of more than $1,900,000,000 in 1928, lending by savings and loan associations fell off during each succeeding year until it reached the depression low of slightly over $400,000,000 in 1933, a drop of almost 80 percent from the peak. Broken only by declines in 1938 and 1942, the annual volume of lending has mounted since then to reach a postdepression high—$1,454,000,000—last year. This is approximately three-fourths the size of the 1928 figure, or the equivalent of the annual rate of lending during 1923 and 1924. The recovery of lending during the thirties and down through 1941, like the gain during the early twenties, was based largely upon new construction which increased in a similar pattern. Also, as in the years 1926 through 1928, the rising volume of lending carried over into 1943 and 1944 on the basis of a generally brisk market after new construction activity had fallen off. Beyond this, comparisons are questionable, for the cause of the decline in building after 1925 was an approaching saturation of the market for which the construction of family-dwelling units was being undertaken. Today, on the other hand, wartime shortages of materials and of manpower, not the absence of need nor the lack of loan- able funds, are primarily responsible for the dearth of new home building. Mortgage Portfolio The total of mortgages held by operating associations reached its peak ($6,507,000,000) in 1929; shelving off rapidly in subsequent years to about hali that size ($3,237,000,000) by 1936. To a considerable extent this was caused by the rapid contraction of new lending and the normal process of debt liquidation by borrowers. As the general economic picture deteriorated, the transfer of outstanding debts tc property accounts became an important factor in the reduction of the portfolio. Prior to the establishment of the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in 1933, the national rate of foreclosures by all types of lenders on home properties was reaching almost 1,000 a day. The transfer of almost $800,000,000 in mortgages to HOLC was another significant factor affecting the decline in portfolio size. Foreclosures and the transfer of loans to HOLC explain the retarded response of the mortgage portfolio to the rise in lending activity. It will be noted from the accompanying charts that although lenelin^ showed moderate gains in all except two years since 1933, it w^as not until 1937 that the balance oi mortgage loans on the books of savings anel loan associations showed any signs of recovery. Since then they have increased each year. As yet, yearend figures are not available for 1944, but it seems safe to assume that 'by that time mortgages held amounted to somewhat more than $4,700,000,000. If this is accurate, the total portfolio is but slightly smaller than it was at the end of 1926, three years before it reached the peak. The effect of the recent gain in lending is plainly discernible, for accelerated retirement of mortgage loans resulting from increased wartime incomes, and also the resale of homes, has not checked the expansion. However, there still remain to be assesseel the effects, if any, of the absence of construction lending in current loans being placed on the books of all operating associations. Acquired Real Estate During the twenties, acquired real estate in the hands of savings and loan associations representee] but a small proportion of industry assets. However, with the financial collapse of 1929, real estate obtained through forclosure ballooned and by 193£ constituted 22.3 percent of adjusted resources as 230 Federal Home Loan Bank Review compared with 3.2 percent in 1930, the earliest date for which accurate information is available. By 1936 the industry was able to check this and for the first time in at least five years it could show a slight reduction in the book value of properties owned. However, not until the following year did the disposition of these slow assets reach a volume sufficient to effect a reduction in their ratio to adjusted resources. Since then the property account has diminished steadily. As a result of the particularly brisk market for existing homes, this item has now been whittled down until it constitutes barely 1 percent of assets. All told, this bulge in acquired real estate was about five years in accumulation and seven years in disposition. This in itself attests the severity of the depression of the thirties, but even these data do not tell the entire story. It cannot be overlooked that extensive property holdings were transferred from operating savings and loan associations to liquidating organizations. Figures cited above exclude these transferred property holdings. Savings On the other side of the balance sheet, trends in private savings showed less violent fluctuations than were observed in the loan portfolio. Although the high rate of increase started to slacken after 1928, the year the loan portfolio reached its peak, significant gains were made in the two succeeding years. Private investments in these institutions did not reach their peak until 1930 when they amounted to about $6,200,000,000. One feature of interest in the decline in invested savings during the first part of the thirties is that the depression low of approximately $4,000,000,000 was not reached until 1936, several years after other types of savings institutions had begun to show signs of recovery. To a large extent this merely reflects the time lag in meeting repurchase demands accumulated in the earlier years which were satisfied as cash was obtained through the normal as well as emergency liquidation of assets. Also, the transfer of associations from active to inactive status entailed, statistically, a reduction of funds invested in operating savings and loan associations. Beginning in 1937, the downward movement in private savings was reversed and the first small net increase was noted. The up-hill pull was slow and it was not until the beginning of the National Defense Program in 1940 that the rate of gain in savings invested in these institutions showed material May 1945 MORTGAGE LOANS HELD AND SAVINGS INVESTED ALL OPERATING SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS B.LUONS 192* // z / 5 V t / // A/ ! 1 1924 - 'AVINGS INVES TED ESS PLEDGED SHA RES) 1 --/ ^ OUTSTA NDINGJl\_ MORI GAGES | (LE SS PLEDGED SHA RES) t' O 19 2 2 • \ // 4 2 BY YEARS /y~'K 6 3 - 1943, 1 1 1926 1928 1 1930 1 1 1932 1934 1 1936 _ 1938 1 _ . . .1. . . L_. 1940 1942 1944 DIVISION OF OPERATING STATISTICS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK ADMINISTRATION improvement. Year-end data for 1944 are not available at this time, but preliminary estimates indicate that savings then amounted to approximately $6,000,000,000—possibly equaling the peak attained in 1930. Thus far, trends in savings and the mortgage portfolio have been reviewed independently. Since the latter represents the principal employment of the former, what was the comparative movement of these two factors? From 1925 through 1930 the balance of mortgages outstanding, as shown in the accompanying chart, was in excess of private savings, indicating a substantial investment of reserve funds in home loans during this period. However, the entire spread between these lines cannot be construed to represent reserves, inasmuch as an unknown portion undoubtedly stood for short-to-medium-term borrowing from commercial banks for home-mortgage lending purposes. From 1931, though, the balance of mortgages outstanding has been less than the private savings figure. The sharp contraction in the loan portfolio during the five years ending in 1936 was far greater than the shrinkage in savings. By the end of that time, when these two series bad reached their low points, private capital was 20 percent greater than the outstanding balance of mortgage loans held. The subsequent recovery in mortgage holdings, however, was more pronounced and by the beginning of the war these two elements were approaching parity. The large shift of resources to Government securities in recent years has reopened the gap so that the portfolio is once more considerably less than private savings. 231 Liquidity, Asset Trends While experience gained over the last 15 years has demonstrated the importance of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the wartime growth in association holdings of Government securities cannot be accepted as the product of normal operations. I t is apparent, however, that a growing number of institutions are seriously considering the provision of a greater measure of liquidity as an operating policy in the post-war period. Should this practice prevail, as it may in the light of heavy Government demands for borrowing after the war, expanded holdings of Federal securities may mark a new and lasting trend in industry operations rather than a move born of wartime expediency and patriotic motives. Trends in aggregate assets are of limited value as a guide to operations since changes of importance show up first in the composition of that figure rather than in the total itself. Over the long term, however, they do serve to reflect net changes in size resulting from operations, although there is frequently a considerable lag between a write-off and its primary cause. The term assets as used in this text has reference to adjusted resources since it is necessary to correct the gross figure to eliminate pledged shares resulting from the use of the old-type sinking-fund loan. As might be expected, the timing and direction of asset trends followed closely the movement in the volume of private savings invested in savings and loan associations. Reaching a peak of $7,471,000,000 in 1930 they declined to a low of $5,165,000,000 in 1936. Throughout the next three years a gradual recovery was noticed. With the beginning of the National Defense Program in 1940 through the subsequent war years impressive gains were recorded. By the end of 1944, adjusted assets were again approximating their record level of 1930. The most significant feature of asset trends over the past lending cycle is to be found in their relation to the number of operating associations. From this relationship it can be seen that a substantial strengthening has taken place within the industry. The peak in the number of operating institutions was reached in 1927 when they totaled 12,804 and average assets amounted to $475,000. Since then, with the exception of 1934, the number of operating associations has diminished yearly, the result, in part, of mergers and consolidations sponsored by the Federal Home Loan Bank System and the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. The result is to be seen in the steady trend toward fewer but larger institutions. At the end of 1943, the latest year for which firm estimates are available for the entire iudustry, 6,232 operating institutions had average assets of almost $1,020,000. In Conclusion In surveyingfsavings and loan trends during an era overshadowed by a severe economic collapse, the salient elements of operations have been examined in the order of their sensitivity to deflationary forces. From the booming peaks of the twenties the sag and collapse of, first, lending, then loan portfolios TRENDS IN NUMBER AND ASSETS ALL OPERATING SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS 1922 TO 1943-AS OF DECEMBER 31, EACH YEAR THOUSANDS NUMBER OF ASSOCIATIONS BILLIONS $8, $ 14 TOTAL ASSETS (LE SS PLE DGE D SHARES) THOUSANDS $1,200 AVERAGE ASSETS (LE:ss PLE DGE D S»HAF ES) 1,000 800 600 400 200 _.! 1922 '24 '26 '28 '30 232 '32 '34 '36 '38 40 '42 '44 i i 1 1 1 1 . ,.l. 1922 '24 '26 '28 '30 '32 '34 '36 '38 '40 '42 '44 1 1 _L_ ._L. .1. ,. L I 1., , 1 1 .,J 1 1922 '24 "26 '28 '30 '32 '34 '36 '38 '40 '42 '44 Federal Home Loan Bank Review md private savings, were traced down to rock bottom n 1936. The rise in property accounts to more than 12 percent of assets was noted. As yet some word •emains to be said of the causes that contributed to .hose results with all their overtones of loss. First, it should be recalled that as early as 1925 he movement of the rental index gave indications )f impending trouble in real estate—not that the lecline in this and the volume of construction, in hemselves, heralded a crash. Danger ahead was mplicit, though, in the continued market for existing properties at prices out of line with those two gauges )f demand. Symptoms of speculative bidding were present. Yet the dangers inherent in such a collapse lot only threatened loans on speculative purchases luring this period but also periled loans on properties purchased for owner occupancy in earlier years. No exact parallel can be drawn between conditions hen and now. As mentioned earlier, the decline in •onstruction and the slackening in the rental index ifter 1925 were due to a saturation of the market for vhieh homes were being constructed. The absence >f building today is the direct result of wartime shortages in materials and manpower. Manifestly, he current rental index is no true guide to demand, 'or rent ceilings are holding it to a stable level. Nevertheless, certain other conditions are similar, lamely, that, as in 1928, the high volume of current ending by associations is based upon borrowing for )ther than construction purposes and current sales irices for comparable properties are in many instances at almost fictional levels. I t falls squarely to the mortgage lender to determine from the facts what he feels will constitute a justifiable risk. There may be merit to the argument, from purely a factual standpoint, that post-war price trends will be upward. However, experience iias shown that the higher they go the harder they fall. A serious post-war boom—inflation—can lead :>nly to another depression with all of its tragedy. If we are to maintain full employment, we have to oreak with the philosophy of boom and bust. This ?alls for concerted action by private industry to hold price fluctuations within reasonable range. If realestate prices are allowed to increase disproportionately now it will be only the harder to check them in the period of peace to come. The progress of inflationary forces today not only threatens the soundness of current business but may make post-war operations precarious because they vvould then be built on shifting sands. While the ligh degree of liquidity in associations strengthens Way 7945 them against danger of deflationary tendencies, rising prices can feed upon these readily loanable funds unless management proceeds with caution. We can ill afford to duplicate the experiences of the past lending cycle. k DIRECTORY ^ H * CHANGES M A R C H 1 6 — A P R I L 15, 1945 Key to Changes * Admission to Membership in Bank System ** Termination of Membership in Bank System # Federal Charter Granted ## Federal Charter Canceled 0 Insurance Certificate Granted 00 Insurance Certificate Canceled DISTRICT N O . 1 CONNECTICUT: Bristol: * Bristol Savings Bank, 150 Main Street. MASSACHUSETTS: Westfield: * Westfield Savings Bank, 100 Elm Street. DISTRICT N O . 2 N E W JERSEY: Bayonne: *0 First Savings and Loan Association of Bayonne, N. J., 394 Broadway. Caldwell: 0 Caldwell Savings and Loan Association, 266 Bloomfield Avenue. 0 West Essex Savings and Loan Association, 315 Bloomfield Avenue. N E W YORK: Stapleton, S. I. 0 Edgewater Savings and Loan Association, 15 Beach Street. DISTRICT N O . 3 PENNSYLVANIA: Pittsburgh: 0 Eagle Savings and^Loan Association, 125 Brownsville Road. DISTRICT No. 6 MICHIGAN: Belding: * Belding Building and Loan Association, 123 W. Main Street. DISTRICT No. 9 TEXAS: Winnsboro: 00 Winnsboro Building and Loan Association, First National Building. Bank DISTRICT N O . 10 KANSAS: Garden City: ** Garden City Building and Loan Association, 412 Main Street. DISTRICT N O . 12 CALIFORNIA: Berkeley: ##00 Community Federal Savings and Loan Association of Berkeley, 2033 Shattuck Avenue. NATIONAL HOUSING AGENCY John B. Blandford, Jr., Administrator FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK ADMINISTRATION John H. Fahey, Commissioner 233 I I Fit New surplus-property disposal assignments The issuance, last month, by the Surplus Property Board, of Regulation No. 1 set the basic pattern for the surplus property system. With one important domestic exception, it continues the disposal assignments which have been in operation since last year under the original authority of the old Surplus War Property Administration. This included the designation of the National Housing Agency as disposal agency for housing property. One of the new provisions carried in this regulation dealing with real property gives to the NHA the additional responsibility of handling the liquidation of land owned by the Government in connection with housing developments. Other classes of real property are assigned to various other disposal agencies appropriate to the type of property involved. However, the act makes it clear that the Board may assign any specific tract to any disposal agency, regardless of classification, where this will facilitate disposal. Series E redemptions increasing A substantial increase occurred during 1944 in the rate of Series E war bond redemptions, according to a recent study by the National Industrial Conference Board. Based on total maturity values, cumulative redemptions at the end of January this year had risen to 16 percent of cumulative sales from only 9.5 percent at the same time ttie year before. This meant that nearly one out of six of these bonds had been redeemed by January 31, 1945. These redemptions were found to be most common in bonds of $25 denomination. While they accounted for 33 percent of all Series E bonds sold, they represented 57 percent of the total redeemed. The study revealed the fact that the redemption ratio declined as the value of the bonds increased. For $25 bonds it was 27.7 percent; the $50 series was redeemed 234 in the proportion of 17.1 percent of sales. The redemption rate of $100 bonds was 10.6 percent; for all other denominations, 7.1 percent. In spite of the upward trend in redemptions, however, nearly $26,000,000,000 maturity value of all series bonds were outstanding at the end of last January. This represented a gain of approximately $9,000,000,000 since the same month in 1944. " H o m e Owners' Library" in Schenectady A new service—the "Home Owners' Library"—has recently been instituted by the Schenectady Savings Bank, New York. The project, which comprises 400 books, magazines and pamphlets, is designed to aid depositors in post-war planning; it supplies the prospective home owner with all the information necessary to plan construction or modernization. The library is housed in a room which has been constructed in the lobby of the bank. Such features as a hearth of weathered bricks from the home of James Fenimore Cooper, together with Early American furniture and bric-a-brac, lend atmosphere and add to the effectiveness of the scheme. Special borrowers' cards have been printed and the library has been designated a " Public Library station" by the Schenectady Public Library from whom a part of the collection w^as obtained. NewT publications pertaining to housing in its many phases will be added as they become available. An attendant is on duty during banking hours to check out books and assist the public with its decoration or building problems. "Packaged" mortgage loans An all-in-one mortgage, in which certain "heavy" household equipment will be considered as part of the real-estate security on which the loan is made, has recently been approved by the board of directors of the National Life Insurance Company. This plan, which will be available on all of this company' future home loans, will "make i easier for persons to acquire a com pletely equipped house with pay ments spread over a long period o life," according to the announcemen of L. Douglas Meredith, vice president Subject to rules and regulations t< be prescribed by the National Life'; legal department, new gas and electri< appliances such as ranges or refriger ators may be included in the "pack aged" mortgage. A reasonable valtn for these items of equipment mus have appeared in the appraisal whei the application was submitted, anc some degree of affixation of the article to the real estate will be required. Small-home problems tackled by new group The Small Homes Council, an organ ization to promote research, informa tion and cooperation on urban anc rural small-home problems, has beei established at the University of Illinois The proposed program includes scien tific study of new materials and meth ods and testing of their worth anc application. It is planned to use university laboratories to discover better methods of design and building and to exhibit to the public these benefits in the college's demonstratioi homes. Students interested in con struction, design and management wil be provided with the advantage o practical experimental studies. Another phase of the program wil be to gather useful cost data and through the publication of bulletins and circulars, to report impartially or new developments in the field. The public will be kept informed on topics including community planning, financing and contracts, homesite requirements, landscaping and design, mechanical equipment, and maintenance and repair. It will also be the purpose of this organization to* seek the cooperation of all elements of the building industry and of civic organizations interested in practical solutions of the problems of the small home. Federal Home Loan Bank Review INDIVIDUALS' SAVINGS AND WAR FINANCE • U N D E R present wartime conditions the Federal Government is purchasing almost half of the output in this country. Currently, close to half of these wartime expenditures is paid from taxes, but the remaining Federal deficit is still running at a rate "in excess of $50 billions a year. The war-financing program has as its principal objective the financing of this deficit as far as possible through the sale of securities to nonbank investors. The banking system is being relied upon for only the residual amount needed over what is supplied by nonbank investors. Members of the Federal Home Loan Bank System are concentrating on the sa;le of Government securities to individuals as their particular sector in the program of war finance. How important is this front! During the first six months of the current calendar year individuals will receive about $82 billions of income. Wages and salaries are expected to amount to close to $58 billions, while other income of individuals will probably exceed $24 billions. This income includes such items as net income and allowances for reserves of unincorporated businesses and farms, dividends, interest, rents, royalties, pensions and relief. What will be the disposition of this $82 billions? Spendings of individuals during this six-month period are estimated at $49 billions and tax payments are placed at about $11.5 billions—principally Federal income taxes, which will be swelled by nonrecurring items. New liquid savings of individuals will account for the remaining $21.5 billions, assuming that none of this excess income is used to bid up prices. All of these savings, however, are not available for direct investment by individuals in war bonds. About $7.5 billions will probabry be transferred to other investors who in turn may invest the funds in Federal securities. These transfers include the amounts individuals invest in insurance companies and Government social insurance funds. They also include deposits to savings accounts and debt reductions. An analysis of trends in individual savings over the past two years reveals that 51 percent of new savings available was invested in Federal securities. What is the significance of this 51-percent ratio? There are a number of reasons which make it clear that May 1945 a 100-percent ratio is unattainable, but no precise figure can be set as an optimum. Greater cash requirements for current operations; increased profits and liquid reserves of small unincorporated businesses ; lethargy on the part of some who consider that they are already doing their share in buying Federal securities, and hoarding by others in an attempt to protect themselves against any emergencies are all factors which contribute to the increases in individuals' holdings of currency and commercial bank accounts. To the extent that these holdings represent positive savings preference or business practice— rather than a temporary accumulation of cash for potential spending at the first opportunity—the funds are not inflationary and the optimum percentage investment in Federal securities may be reduced. Nevertheless, it is still true that individuals could have—and should have—invested more than 51 percent of their new savings available during the last two years in various types of Federal securities. Challenge of Seventh War Loan With available income estimated at $14 billions for the current six-month period, the Seventh War Loan faces the challenge by setting the individual goal at $7 billions, the highest figure for any War Loan to date, with $4 billions in E Bonds as compared with the highest previous E Bond goal of $3 billions The expanded payroll plan running over a period of three months should aid materially in attaining the quota set for this type of investor. 235 RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY AND SELECTED INFLUENCING FACTORS /935-/939=/00 BY YEARS INDEX I 1 1 1 11 220 i PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION 200 / / \J 140 120 ^. LN. LEM D. V FED. 3S.8 HOM E LN. BK.A 100 V 80 \ . •-/* / / / f / /^SVGS. .PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION 1 a 2 FAMILY DWELL. UNITS 1 \ fNONFARM L^ 11 V FORECLOSURES L 1 L rx^TTlT,Trn~ %+' .*1 j 'Pit** H—1 — 1> 1 RENTS ,- ^ >KRI1 I I niMG i i I i i i i OF 1—1 ^~ L PP / P P - e IMATl LAB( DR) 1 60 280 i ,—••' PF/VTS ^(uTs.— DEPT*OM_ABC )R) V ' ' ' -^s (U.S. DEF>T. 1 [ 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1I f ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL I 260 I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 VARIATION I f INDUSTRIAL 1*RODlJCTK7N -»•• • * " • • * . 240 INDLISTRIAL PRODUCmoN-^ 220 i FED. KC.3L rxvc BU«« 3) •** „..—•. ^"* -J>. / 200 >. ,.•—" ••* ""V/A COME; P A Y MEN! S / j 180 i 160 ... ,.•* ****••*.«, •"•••v. J / y MF6. E(V»PLO^M E N T^ i 140 / 120 N *r INCOME PAYMENTS (U.S. DEPT OF C O M M E R C E ) ^ , 80 *s *S_rV "v.. 60 V r_\ 1 1 80 / a LN. LEND. ^H-— 20 0 140 v v '" >^ 1 ,\ •'" *./" y V ^ / irv /'— / IV 1 NUNraruw -"• i FORECLOSURES 1 120 i ..«•* 40 I00\ i i : V- /r N 60 100 .AI f 'i \ i m\ / ( i x 1 8 2 FAMILY DWELL. UNITS j (FED. HOME LOAN BANK A D M . ) ^ U.S. CEPT DFLA B. RECORD" 5 180 160 BY MONTHS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION ,£ EMPLOYMENT *% -MFG. (U. S. DEPT OF LABOR) <&'' *\* W i 1930 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39 '40 '41 42 '43 '44 MILLIONS.F.H.L.B. ADVANCES OUTSTANDING $200 r 236 BILLIONS $30 i i i i i 1 1 I i i 1943 MONEY IN CIRCULATION i 1 1 1944 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1945 MORTGAGE RECORDINGS-ALL LENDERS MILLIONS - Federal Home Loan Bank Review « « « ONTHLT SURVEY » J> > HIGHLIGHTS /. Industrial production in March remained at a comparatively high level—236 percent of the 1935-1939 average. II. The 8,039 permits issued during March for urban dwelling units represented a 51-percent gain over February. However, this total was 35 percent below March 1944. A. Private building activity increased 50 percent during March while 72 units were constructed with public funds—the first in 1945. B. A quarterly comparison shows a total of 18,400 urban dwelling units provided in 1945—a decrease of 43 percent from the same period last year. III. Nonfarm foreclosures showed a continuing tendency to level off. A. In the first quarter of this year, 3,924 such actions were completed compared with 4,275 in the last quarter of 1944, and 4,766 in the first three months of last year. B. The seasonally adjusted index of foreclosures for the first three months of this year was 9.3, 11.4, and 10.8, respectively. IV. Increases by all types of mortgagees brought the March volume of mortgage recordings to $433,000,000—only the record high of October 1941. 3 percent less than V. Indications are that lending during March reached record levels. A. All types of loans showed gains over February with the home-purchase category accounting for 75 percent of the March B. Increased lending in March was general—all Bank Districts reporting gains. VI. Advances outstanding were the lowest since August 1933, while new advances made were the lowest for any March. were the highest on record for that month. total. Repayments ft ft ft BUSINESS C O N D I T I O N S - G e n e r a l l y high volume of activity reported Reflecting the national determination to bring all energies to bear on the war against Japan in order that this may be fought through to an early and decisive conclusion, industrial output in March continued at the same high level as in the preceding month, 236 percent of the 1935-1939 average, according to the index compiled by the Federal Reserve Board. The manufacture of machinery showed little change from February. However, production of transportation equipment diminished as the result of further curtailment in shipyard operations. Most nondurable industries continued production at February levels. According to the Department of Commerce, there was no significant decline in the output of civilian goods in the first three months of 1945. Despite higher war-production schedules, the quantity of nondurable goods flowing to the civilian economy during this period was 5 percent above that reported for the corresponding months of 1939. Department store sales showed another sharp rise in March, reaching 224 percent of the seasonally adjusted index (1935-1939 = 100) compared with 212 in February and 200 in January. With the exception of coal, freight car loadings of all commodities also showed continued gains. May 194S Employment mounted to 50,830,000 during the month, a gain greater than that reported in the total labor force with the result that unemployment declined somewhat, standing at 830,000 persons. With the individual taxpayer having to pay the balance due on 1942 or 1943 taxes, income tax payments during March held the rise in currency in circulation to a lower figure than the increase in the corresponding month of 1944. A gain of $140,000,000 in the 1945 month compared with $263,000,000 in the same month last year. War expenditures rose to new heights as the monthly total exceeded $8,000,000,000 in March, dwarfing by $2,500,000,000 the record receipts reported for that month. The previous record in these expenditures was reported in May 1944, when they amounted to $7,879,000,000. [1935-1939 = 100] T y p e of index H o m e construction (private) ! Foreclosures (nonfarm) 1 _ E e n t a l index ( B L S ) . B u i l d i n g material prices Savings a n d loan l e n d i n g !. .__ _ Industrial production ] . Manufacturing employment I-_. _ Income payments ! - ... - .. March 1945 48.6 10.8 108.3 130.8 217.2 236.0 161.1 244.8 Feb. 1945 50.4 11.4 108.3 130.6 207.1 r 236. 0 r 163. 7 245.2 Percent change March 1944 -3.6 -5.3 0.0 +0.2 +4.9 0.0 -1.6 -0.2 54.2 12.7 108.1 127.5 178.3 241.0 174.9 231.9 Percent change -10.3 -15.0 +0.2 +2.6 +21.8 -2. 1 -7.9 +5.6 Adjusted for normal seasonal variation. • Revised. 237 BUILDING ACTIVITY-Public and private construction vp The total of about 8,039 urban dwelling units for which permits were issued during March represented a substantial relative gain (51 percent) over the preceding month. Privately financed construction, which, during recent months, dropped to the lowest level in a decade or more, accounted for the major portion of this gain, providing 7,967 family dwelling units in March compared with 5,324 in February. Public construction, the first in 1945, totaled 72 units in March. Although private construction registered a large percentage gain from February to March, the number of units provided during the latter month was still about 12 percent below the March 1944 total of 9,000. As a result of the even sharper decline in public construction (from 3,339 units in March of last year) the total number of family dwellings provided in March 1945 was 35 percent below that of a year ago. vances. 1 1 URBAN AREAS - NO. OF [TABLES 3, 4, and 5.] Construction costs for the standard house [Average month of 1935-1939=100] Element of cost Mar. 1945 Material Labor 132. 0 140. 2 r 134. 7 r RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION THOUSNEW 25 140.2, respectively. Compared with March 1944, material costs gained 2.2 percent; labor charges, 2.5 percent; and total costs, 2.3 percent. Wholesale prices of building materials, as reported by the Department of Labor, advanced slightly during March. Declines from February were noted for lumber and paint and paint materials, while structural steel and plumbing and heating materials remained unchanged. All other components made small gains. Since March 1944, the composite index has increased 2.6 percent and now stands at 130.8. With the exception of structural steel, which indicated no change, all commodities showed ad- Total Feb. 1945 Percent change Mar. 1944 131. 8 140. 1 + 0. 2 + 0. 1 129. 1 136. 8 + 2. 2 + 2. 5 134. 6 + 0. 1 131. 7 + 2. 3 Percent change 1 DWELL. UNITS r Revised. MORTGAGE LENDING—Reached new high IVfl I I 1 I I I I 1942 1943 1944 1945 During the first quarter of 1945, permits were issued for a total of approximately 18,400 units in urban areas, about 14,000 units, or 43 percent, less than during the same period of 1944. [TABLES 1 and 2.] B U I L D I N G COSTS—Increases noted during March Fractional increases in both the material and labor components during March brought the index of total construction costs for the standard house to 134.7 percent of the 1935-1939 average. A gain over February of 0.2 percent in costs of materials and 0.1 percent in labor raised these indexes to 132.0 and 238 New mortgage lending by all savings and loan associations reached a new high level in March. Estimates of new lending by these institutions are available by months only since 1936, but annual estimates are on hand as far back as 1925. On the basis of these monthly and annual figures, it can be stated with some assurance that the $141,500,000 of new mortgage loans made by savings and loan associations during March exceeded the volume of loans made in any other month since 1930 or possibly 1929. The new loan volume for the current month was one-third greater than in February and exceeded by more than one-fifth the $116,100,000 of new home-mortgage credit extended by these institutions during March of last year. AH types of loans evidenced gains from February to March, increases ranging from 0.2 percent for "other" purpose loans to 140 percent for construction loans. Despite the sharp percentage rise in construction lending, savings and loan associations loaned only $7,400,000 for this purpose in March. Loans for the purchase of existing homes, which accounted for three-fourths of total lending during March, were 35 percent higher than in February, Federal Home Loan Bank Review New mortgage loans distributed by purpose [Dollar a m o u n t s are shown in thousands] Mar. 1945 Purpose Percent change Feb. 1945 Percent change Mar. 1944 aggregating almost $350,000,000, an increase of about 18 percent over the $295,000,000 of new loans made during the first quarter of 1944 and almost one-third more than the volume of new loans made during the same period of 1941. [TABLES 6 and 7.] MORTGAGE RECORDINGS—Sharp Construction Home purchase Refinancing Reconditioning Other purposes $7, 105, 15, 2, 10, Total 406 307 922 559 287 $3, 78, 12, 1, 10, + 140. + 34. + 27. + 28. + 0. 081 140 524 994 270 4 $9, 127 - 1 8 . 9 8 81, 846 + 28. 7 1 14, 422 + 10..4 3 2,266 + 12. 9 2 8, 469 + 21. 5 141, 481 106, 009 + 33. 5 116, 130 + 21. 8 •efinaneing loans were up 27 percent in this comparison and reconditioning loans, 28 percent. Increases in lending activity of savings and loan issociations were general throughout the country, [n all Bank Districts the volume of new loans made during March was greater than in the preceding month or in the same month of 1944. During the first three months of this year, all savings and loan associations made newT loans TOTAL LOANS MADE BY ALL SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS UNITED STATES-BY TYPE OF ASSOCIATION BY MONTHS MILLIONS OF DOLL - " 160 1 r 7'OTAL iSSOCIAT (ALL 0NS)X 1 1 / «FEDERALS ^ <& &** t> V , / QTE CHARTERED MEML3ERS V >-'/' expansion during March Mortgage-financing activity throughout the country expanded sharply during March, the estimated $433,000,000 of nonfarm mortgages of $20,000 or less recorded during the month representing an increase of about $95,000,000, or 28 percent, over the total for the preceding month. All types of lenders shared in this rise, with increases ranging from 20 percent for lenders in the miscellaneous category to 36 percent for savings and loan associations. In March 1945 financing activity was 18 percent higher than in March of last year, 61 percent greater than in the same 1943 month, and 24 percent above the March 1941 level. In fact, the volume of mortgages recorded this March fell only 3 percent short of the monthly peak established for this series in October 1941 when a total of $448,000,000 of these instruments was recorded. In the first three months of this year, recordings by all types of lenders aggregated almost $1,127,000,000, a gain of 15 percent over the same period of last year and about 57 percent above the first quarter of 1943. This sharp increase in dollar volume resulted from both an advance in the number of mortgages recorded and a continued upward trend in the average size of these mortgages. The approximately 337,000 nonfarm mortgages of $20,000 or less recorded in the first quarter of this year were NOI\IMEMBL7?S«^ ,, 1 1 OEC. MAR. 1 1 JUN. SEP. ,rrrr DEC. 1943 1 1 I 1 1 JUN. SEP. l i DEC. I 1 1 MAR. 1944 JUN. SEP. DEC. 1945 UNITED STATES--BY PURPOSE BY MONTHS Mortgage recordings by type of mortgagee [Dollar a m o u n t s are shown in thousands] OF LOAN 160 PI-HOME PURCHASE Kjj-CONSTRUCTION T y p e of lender ^-REFINANCING 120 P+OTHER l 100 60 Savings and loan associations Insurance companies Banks, t r u s t companies M u t u a l savings banks Individuals Others 60 , 40 g j 20 PerPerCumula- Percent cent cent tive change of of Mar. recordfrom total 1945 ings Feb. record1945 a m o u n t (3 months) ings + + + + + + 36. 28. 25. 31. 23. 20. 1 9 1 5 3 0 34. 4. 18. 3. 26. 12. 9 $374, 017 8 54, 585 5 209, 042 1 36, 442 5 307, 419 1 145, 107 33. 2 4. 8 18. 6 3.2 27. 3 12.9 *f OEC MAR JUN SFP 1943 May 1945 DEC SEP OEC MAR. JUN. SEP DEC. Total + 27. 9 100. 0 1, 126, 612 100. 0 1945 239 9 percent more than in the first quarter of 1944 and 37 percent over the same 1943 period. The average mortgage recorded by all types of lenders during the first three months of 1945 amounted to $3,338, an increase of $179, or 6 percent, over the average for the same period of last year and an advance of $433, or 15 percent, above the average size of mortgages recorded during the JanuaryMarch period of 1943. All types of lenders recorded larger average mortgages during the first quarter of 1945 than in the same period of last year or of 1943. [TABLES 8 and 9.] F H L B SYSTEM—Advances outstanding near all-time low Federal Home Loan Bank advances outstanding at the end of March dropped to the lowest volume recorded since August 1933. The total of $61,059,000 was down 22 percent from that shown at the end of February (with all Banks participating in this decline) and 38 percent below the balance outstanding on March 31, 1944. The March 1945 balance was only slightly more than one-fourth of the alltime high recorded at the close of December 1941. Following the normal seasonal trend (which had been reversed last year) advances made during March 1945 exceeded those of February. This year the total of $2,770,000 was almost twice as large as that of the preceding month, with every Bank District except Winston-Salem and Topeka reporting increases. Even so, except for 1943 and 1935, total advances were the lowest ever reported during March. They were down 13 percent from the amount that was advanced in that month of 1944. Repayments made by member associations to the F H L Banks in March amounted to $20,882,000, the most ever received in that month. This was 16 percent more than was received in March 1944. In spite of the comparatively high volume of repayments, the March 1945 amount was 25 percent below the figure reported in February. Only two Banks (Chicago and Los Angeles) registered increases during March over the preceding month. A comparison of the first quarter of this year with the same period of 1944 shows a decrease in financing activity. Advances made during the first three months of 1945 totaled only $15,250,000—a third of last year's volume of $45,418,000. Repayments this year, on the other hand, increased 65 percent over those received in the same period last year— $84,755,000 compared with $56,108,000. [TABLE 12.] 240 FLOW OF PRIVATE REPURCHASABLE CAPITAL Total savings invested in savings and loan associa tioiis during the first quarter of this year amounte< to almost $564,000,000, a substantial gain (24 per cent) over the $453,000,000 received in the sam period of last year. Withdrawals during the quarte amounted to approximately $331,000,000, or abou 13 percent more than in the first three months o 1944. As a result of the greater percentage gain ii new investments than in repurchases, the repurchas ratio for all associations dropped from 64 to 5\ percent. During the first quarter, total savings invested h insured associations exceeded by 30 percent invest ments in the same 1944 period, while withdrawal from these associations increased only 17 percent resulting in a repurchase ratio of 56 percent com pared with 63 percent for the first quarter of 1944 The repurchase ratio for uninsured members of tb< Federal Home Loan Bank System also showed im provement in this comparison, dropping from 69 tc 65 percent. In contrast, the repurchase ratio fo nonmember associations increased 7 points to 71 percent. In March, all savings and loan associations at tracted approximately $171,000,000 of new saving; and paid out about $93,000,000 in withdrawals, o Share investments and repurchases, March 1945 [Dollar a m o u n t s are shown in thousands] All associations I t e m a n d period Ail insured associations Uninsured members N onmembers Share i n v e s t m e n t s : 1st 3 mos. 1945 1st 3 mos. 1944 Percent change March 1945 M a r c h 1944 Percent change $563, 553 $459, 555 $64, 668 $39, 33( 453, 247 352, 601 61, 030 39, 61( +6 . +24 + 30 170, 887 138, 709 20, 319 11, 85< 142, 643 104, 494 22, 853 15, 29( + 20 -11 + 33 -2\ Repurchases: 1st 3 mos. 1945 1st 3 mos. 1944 Percent change M a r c h 1945 M a r c h 1944 Percent change $330, 580 $258, 520 $41, 935 $30, 291, 293 221, 422 42, 137 27, + 13 + 17 0) 93, 035 71, 488 12, 820 8, 76, 638 56, 693 11, 705 8, + 21 + 10 + 26 Repurchase ratio (percent) : 1st 3 mos. 1945 1st 3 mos. 1944 M a r c h 1945 M a r c h 1944 1 58.7 64. 3 54. 4 53. 7 56. 62. 51. 54. 3 8 5 3 64. 8 69.0 63. 1 51. 2 12; 73 +< 72' 24( +< 76. ( 70. ( 73. ( 53. < Less than 1 percent decrease. Federal Home Loan Bank Reviev, about $54 for each $100 invested. During the same month of last year, total share investments and repurchases amounted to about $143,000,000 and $77,000,000, respectively, also yielding a repurchase ratio of 54 percent. Progress in number a n d assets of Federals [Dollar a m o u n t s are shown in thousands] Approximate assets Number Class of association Mar. 31, 1945 Mar. 31, Feb. 28, 1945 1945 INSURED ASSOCIATIONS—Liquidity Feb. 28, 1945 and average savings gained At the end of March, the 2,465 insured savings and loan associations held total assets of $5,100,000,000, of which 31 percent was in liquid form. Cash accounts aggregated $327,000,000 in March, after increasing 21 percent'during the quarter, and represented 6 percent of total assets. U. S. Governmentbond accounts, which were 3 percent above the December 1944 level, amounted to $1,262,000,000, or 25 percent of assets. At the end of March 1944, cash and Government bonds held by insured associations accounted for 23.5 percent of total assets of these institutions. Savings represented by the accounts of 4,140,000 private investors approximated $4,500,000,000 at the end of March and amounted to 88 percent of the total resources of all insured associations. The average investment in insured associations at the end of March was about $1,095 compared with an average of $989 one year earlier. Despite the fact that insured associations made $266,000,000 in new mortgage loans during the first three months of this, year, net first mortgage holdings of these institutions rose only $41,000,000 to approximately $3,300,000,000. During the three months ending in March, insured associations retired about $9,000,000 of Government-share capital, reducing the outstanding balance to $28,800,000. I n the same period, Bank advances were reduced from $123,500,000 to $54,400,000. [TABLE 13.] New Converted Total 632 833 1, 465 632 $1, 098, 328 $1, 083, 308 832 2, 139, 614 2, 117, 016 1,464 3, 237, 942 3, 200, 324 FORECLOSURES—Index of foreclosures showed leveling Nonfarm real-estate foreclosures during the first quarter of 1945 were the lowest for any three-month period since the series was started in 1926. From January through March, inclusive, they totaled an estimated 3,924, representing a drop of 8 percent from the last quarter of 1944 and 18 percent less than in the corresponding period of last year. However, this does not alter the fact that during the past 12 months the adjusted foreclosure index has shown signs of leveling off, fluctuations ranging from 9.3 to 11.4 percent of the 1935-1939 average. The figure for March was 10.8 percent. The annual rate of foreclosures per 1,000 structures was 0.7 for the first quarter of 1945, compared with 0.8 for the last three months of 1944. Greater numbers of distress actions were reported in 19 states and the District of Columbia. Comparing the first quarter of this year with the same 1944 period, eight Districts reported reductions in foreclosures varying from 47 percent in Chicago to 9 percent in Cincinnati. Other Districts showed increases ranging from 11 percent in Portland to 148 percent in Indianapolis. [TABLE 15.] F E D E R A L SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS Liquid assets of the 1,465 Federal savings and loan associations rose 5 percent over December to a total of $1,025,000,000, and comprised 32 percent of the $3,238,000,000 in total resources at the close of March. Cash represented 6 percent of the total assets at the end of March and U. S. Government obligations, 26 percent. Private capital accounts amounted to $2,895,000,000, representing the savings of 2,465,000 investors in Federal associations. Federals made over $69,000,000 in new loans during March. May 1945 New V i c e Chairman in Des Moines • A N N O U N C E M E N T has been made by James Twohy, Governor, Federal Home Loan Bank System of the designation of Robert E. Lee Hill as Vice Chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines. Mr. Hill, who is secretary of the Missouri Bankers Association, will fill the unexpired portion of a term ending December 31, 1945. He is at present a public interest director of the Des Moines Bank, appointed to serve in that capacity for a term to end in December 1947. 241 Table 1 . — B U I L D I N G A C T I V I T Y — E s t i m a t e d number and valuation of new family-dwelling units provided in all urban areas in March 1945, by Federal Home Loan Bank District and by State [Source: U. S. Department of Labor] [Dollar amounts are shown in thousands] , All p r i v a t e 1- a n d 2-family s t r u c t u r e s All residential s t r u c t u r e s N u m b e r of familydwelling u n i t s Federal H o m e L o a n B a n k District a n d S t a t e N u m b e r of familydwelling u n i t s Permit valuation Permit valuation M a r c h 1945 M a r c h 1944 M a r c h 1945 M a r c h 1944 M a r c h 1945 M a r c h 1944 M a r c h 1945 1 M a r c h 1944 UNITED STATES ... - 8,039 12, 361 $26, 350 $36, 674 7,249 8,087 $24,038 $26, 375 67 109 254 448 55 109 212 448 18 82 35 36 14 57 82 164 156 65 217 18 47 36 14 57 122 156 65 - 217 2 2 8 10 2 2 8 10 85 119 327 414 82 108 322 406 34 51 90 29 128 199 307 107 31 51 79 29 123 199 299 107 53 440 128 1,322 34 268 78 902 45 8 421 19 1,314 8 26 8 249 19 74 4 894 8 1,293 1,205 3,045 1,056 686 2,821 1,390 189 273 344 117 99 90 13 168 104 28 658 303 2 49 25 36 189 152 288 117 99 90 13 108 104 24 154 298 2 43 25 36 346 506 678 336 322 250 626 72 108 1,848 876 3 20 14 104 376 72 103 202 873 3 19 14 104 401 960 1,701 3, 756 347 739 1,508 3,069 26 218 157 39 788 133 57 1,197 447 81 3,396 279 26 196 125 39 567 133 57 1,101 350 81 2,709 279 274 1,490 1,175 6,047 250 1,001 1,133 4,736 165 109 391 1,099 667 508 1,142 4,905 141 109 200 801 625 508 738 3,998 1,026 531 4,900 2,320 972 466 4,679 2,158 977 49 432 99 4,693 207 1, 988 332 931 41 417 49 4,497 182 1,928 230 257 207 1.092 519 257 107 1,092 279 40 162 33 4 18 9 4 97 104 874 68 274 i 39 1 40 162 33 4 18 9 197 104 874 68 1 39 1 1,529 1,369 2,714 2,023 1,501 1,269 2,667 1, 862 . . . _ . _ . . _ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 313 126 66 958 31 182 120 63 973 62 595 105 61 1,891 8 379 28 37 1,571 66 313 126 66 930 31 182 120 51 885 62 595 105 61 1,844 8 379 29 35 1,411 . .. 452 343 1,396 917 430 229 1,340 593 291 31 27 103 148 16 98 81 1,017 84 106 189 420 10 354 133 269 31 27 103 34 16 98 81 961 . 84 106 189 96 10 354 133 585 861 1,914 2,853 417 600 1,523 2,059 60 38 106 24 319 38 129 27 266 37 387 15 270 60 367 65 1,070 82 372 78 927 89 1,323 64 60 38 106 24 175 14 69 7 164 37 308 15 270 60 367 65 710 51 233 16 578 89 1,079 64 2.017 4,727 7,146 13,010 1,848 2,505 6,663 8, 473 118 1,878 21 166 1 4,558 ! 3 1 456 6,624 66 401 12,603 6 118 1,709 21 54 2,448 3 456 6,141 66 107 8,360 6 . .. N o . 1—Boston C o n n e c t i c u t l._ Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont . ._ .. . . .. N o . 2—New Y o r k _ __ . .. .. New Jersey. New York . . . ... - __ _ _ _. . .. . . . - ________ . . . . N o . 3—Pittsburgh Delaware Pennsylvania W e s t Virginia - - ... . _ '" _ . N o . 4—Winston-Salem ... _ Alabama . . D i s t r i c t of C o l u m b i a . . Florida. Georgia Maryland _' N o r t h Carolina . . S o u t h Carolina Virginia. _ . . . _ _ . . ._ . . . . __ . . . . .... . N o . 5—Cincinnati Kentucky... Ohio Tennessee ... .. ... N o . 6—Indianapolis . . . ._ 1 Indiana.. Michigan . . N o . 7—Chicago Illinois Wisconsin.__ ... ... ._ N o . 8—Des M o i n e s . . . . Iowa _ Minnesota. . Missouri __ _ North Dakota . . . . South Dakota . ._ ..... . . . . . . . ... .__ .. ... _ . . . . . . .. . ... .... . N o . 9—Little R o c k Arkansas . Louisiana.. Mississippi N e w Mexico Texas . . _ _ .... . . . . N o . 10—Topeka Colorado Kansas Nebraska Oklahoma. . ... . .. .. .. . _ ... ._ ... . .. . ... . _ ... ._ . _ . . . ._ . . . . . . N o . 11—Portland Idaho . . Montana Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming... - . ... . . . . . _ ... N o . 12—Los Angeles ... Arizona .. ...... ... . . . . . California _ _ _ _ _ . . . . Nevada _ . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 . . ... _. . . . . ... . 124 4 3,603 346 854 862 336 322 250 514 4 Federal Home Loan Bank Review Table 2 . — B U I L D I N G A C T I V I T Y — E s t i m a t e d number and valuation of new family-dwelling units provided in all urban areas of the United States [Source: U. S. Department of Labor] [Dollar amounts are shown in thousands] Permit valuation N u m b e r of family-dwelling u n i t s a/Tonthly T y p e of construction M a r . 1944 P r i v a t e construction ... 1-family d w e l l i n g s , . . 2-family dwellings *. . . . . . . ... . 3-and more-family dwellings 2 . . . . . . P u b l i c construction . T o t a l u r b a n construction 1 2 r .. ... 1915 7,967 5,324 9,022 18, 337 6,350 899 718 4,326 366 632 6,922 1,165 935 14, 771 1,478 2, 088 J a n . - M a r . totals M a r . 1945 F e b . 1945 M a r . 1944 25,104 $26,165 $16, 861 $29, 052 $57,211 $80, 204 19, 340 2, 551 3,213 21, 541 2,496 2,128 13, 593 996 2,272 22,117 4,258 2,677 46, 696 4,072 6,443 61, 725 8, 616 9,863 r 1944 F e b . 1945 M a r . 1945 M o n t h l y totals J a n . - M a r . totals totals 1945 ' 1944 72 0 3,339 72 7,323 185 0 7, 622 185 16, 623 8,039 5,324 12, 361 18,409 32, 427 26, 350 16. 861 36, 674 57, 396 96, 827 Includes 1- and 2-family dwelling combined with stores. Includes multi-family dwellings combined with stores. Revised. Table 3 — B U I L D I N G C O S T S -Index of building costs for tfie standard house in representative cities in specific months l [Average month of 1935-1939 = 100] 1943 1944 1945 1942 1941 April April 1940 1939 April April Federal H o m e L o a n B a n k District a n d city April N o . 2—New Y o r k : Camden, N . J . Newark, N . J Albany, N . Y Buffalo, N . Y . . . . .' N o . 6—Indianapolis: Indianapolis, Ind*. Detroit, M i c h * . . . . . . . . N o . 8—Des M o i n e s : D e s Moines, Iowa* St. Louis, M o * . _. Sioux Falls, S. D * N o . 11—Portland: Boise, I d a h o * . . P o r t l a n d , Oregon* Salt L a k e C i t y , U t a h * Seattle, W a s h * . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . _ . . . Jan. Oct, July April April 145.1 143. 6 159.3 143.8 142.1 140.7 157.1 140.4 140.0 137. 3 156.1 130.4 130.8 138.8 137. 0 123.2 125.4 117.3 114. 7 119.4 112.0 108.8 106.6 103.3 100.9 103.7 103.4 101.6 100.2 146.5 152.3 146.5 152.1 146.4 152.6 143.5 149.6 125.9 128.8 126.1 123.3 116.5 108.7 96.8 102.0 105. 3 107.2 120.9 127.1 130. 5 120.7 126.7 130.3 120.9 124.6 130.7 121.1 123.0 130.4 118.4 123.4 127.7 116.1 120.9 126.2 115.2 125.4 119.4 106.0 109.2 108.3 102.6 99.3 101.5 101.6 98.2 104.0 139.4 143.4 129. 1 138.9 139.7 143.4 129.7 138.9 140.8 143.6 129.7 138.9 137.2 140.9 126.8 134.6 136.8 140.9 126.8 133.7 126.4 133. 0 122.8 126.6 126.2 115.1 119.6 123.8 112.4 104.2 106.2 110.6 106.2 '98.9 102.8 103.6 104.6 '94.8 103.0 102.7 145. 2 161.9 151.4 149.4 143.2 159. 7 148.0 r 145. 1 146.5 152.9 •Indexes of April 1941 and thereafter have been revised in order to use retail material prices collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. r Revised. 1 This index is designed to measure the changes in the costs of constructing a standard frame house and to provide a basis for the study of the trend of costs within an individual community or in different cities. The various units of materials and labor are selected in accordance with their contribution to the total cost of the completed dwelling. Material costs are based on prices for a limited bill of the more important items. Current prices are furnished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and are based on information from a group of dealers in each city who report on prices for material delivered to job site, in average quantities, for residential construction. Because of wartime conditions, some of the regular items are not available at times and, therefore, substitutions must be made of similar products which are being sold. Labor costs are based on prevailing rates for residential construction and reflect total earnings, including overtime and bonus pay. Either union or nonunion rates are used according to which prevails in the majority of cases within the community. Figures presented in this table include all revisions up to the present time. Revisions are unavoidable, however, as more complete information is obtained. Cities in F H L B Districts 2, 6, 8, and 11 report in January, April, July and October of each year; those in Districts 3. 5, 9 and 12 report in February, May, August and November; and those in Districts 1, 4, 7 and 10 report in March, June, September and December. h SUPPORT THE 7» WAR LOAN! May 1945 243 Table 4 . — B U I L D I N G COSTS—Index of building costs for the standard house [Average m o n t h of 1935-1939=100] M a r . 1945 Feb.1945 J a n . 1945 Dec. 1944 N o v . 1944[ Oct. 1944 Sept. 1944 A u g . 1944 J u l y 1944 J u n e 1944 M a y 1944 A p r . 1944 M a r . 1944 E l e m e n t of cost Material Labor. Total .__ .__ ___ _ - . . . _ 132.0 140.2 ••131.8 140.1 * 131.6 ' 140. 0 '131.5 r 140. 0 131.5 139.9 131.3 139.1 131.2 138.5 131.3 137.3 131.0 137.3 130.7 137.5 130.3 137.3 129.7 137.0 129.1 136.8 134.7 r 134.6 134.5 134.4 134.4 133.9 133.7 133.3 133.1 133.0 132.7 132.2 131.7 • Revised. Table 5 . — B U I L D I N G COSTS—Index of wholesale prices of building materials in the United States [1935-1939=100; converted from 1926 base] [Source: U. S. Department of Labor] All building materials Period Brick and tile Paint and paint materials Lumber Cement Plumbing and heating Structural steel Other 1943: M a r c h 123.3 108.6 103. 4 r 152. 2 125.7 118.8 103.5 110.3 1944: March April May June.July August September October November December... 127.5 128.6 129.2 129.4 129.4 129.5 129.5 129.9 130.0 130.0 110.4 110.4 110.6 110.7 110.8 110.8 111.7 115.3 115.6 115.9 102.7 103.1 105.8 105.8 105.8 105.8 106.3 107.0 107.2 107.0 167.8 170.8 171.5 171.5 171.7 171.9 171.5 171.3 171.3 171.3 128.4 128.4 128.7 130.0 129.7 129.7 129.7 130.3 130.7 130.7 120.6 120.6 121.4 121.4 121.4 121.4 121.4 121.4 121.4 121.4 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.4 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.7 111.7 111.7 130.4 130.6 130.8 121.5 121.6 121.8 106.9 108.7 109.1 171.3 171.4 171.3 130.7 130.8 130.7 121.4 121.4 121.4 103.5 103.5 103.5 111.9 112.0 112.3 +0.2 +2.6 +0.2 +10.3 +0.4 +6.2 -0.1 +2.1 -0.1 +1.8 0.0 +0.7 0.0 0.0 +0.3 +1.0 .- _, _ __ 1945: January February March ... P e r c e n t change: M a r c h 1945-February 1945 M a r c h 1945-March 1944 r Revised. Table 6 . — M O R T G A G E LENDING—Estimated volume of new home-mortgage loans by all savings and loan associations, by purpose and class of association [Thousands of dollars] P u r p o s e of loans Class of association Period 1943 j. January-March March . __ ... . ... _ . _. .. 1944 January-March .... March . April May June . _. July August -__ September October . November _ December ._ 1945 January-March. January. February. March. ... _. ... . . . . ._ . ... . ... .. . . „ ... _ . ... -.. .. _. . . .. . _. 244 _ . _ __ •_____........ Total loans Construction Home purchase Refinancing Reconditioning L o a n s for all o t h e r purposes $106,497 $802,371 $167,254 $30,441 $77,398 $1,183,961 $511, 757 $539,299 $132,905 20, 339 127,139 38, 792 5,997 16,098 208, 365 87,806 93,680 26, 879 8,572 55,235 14.874 2,377 6,127 87,185 37.850 38, 595 10, 740 95,243 1,064,017 163,813 30,751 100,228 1,454,052 669,433 648, 670 135, 949 28,194 202, 984 36, 353 5,747 21,994 295, 272 135,103 130, 281 29, 888 9,127 13,484 7,338 9,663 7,078 7,589 5,923 6,095 4,635 5,244 81,846 85, 568 98,872 103,276 93,232 105,050 101,884 101,461 90,182 81, 508 14,422 13, 491 14,415 14,963 13,871 14,152 14,495 15,253 13,265 13,555 2,266 2,679 2,967 2, 957 2,841 3,067 3,160 2,699 2,507 2,127 8,469 7,421 8,931 9,850 8,014 8,816 8,993 9,720 7,785 8,704 116,130 122, 643 132, 523 140, 709 125,036 138, 674 134,455 135,228 118,374 111,138 53, 883 57,045 59, 229 64,474 57,164 64,400 63,489 61,965 54,978 51,586 50, 686 54, 212 60,141 63,851 56, 539 61,377 59,162 60,945 52,241 49,921 11, 561 11, 386 13,153 12,384 11,333 12,897 11,804 12,318 11,155 9,631 14, 259 259, 942 40,613 6,421 28, 556 349, 791 165, 769 153,715 30, 307 3,772 3,081 7,406 76,495 78,140 105, 307 12,167 12, 524 15, 922 1,868 1,994 2,559 7,999 10, 270 10, 287 102, 301 106,009 141,481 46,439 49,900 69,430 46,452 46,575 60,688 9,410 9, 534 11,363 Federals State members Nonmembers Federal Home Loan Bank Review Table 7.—LENDING—Estimated volume of new loans by savings and loan associations Table 8.—RECORDINGS—Estimated nonfarm mortgage recordings, $20,000 and under [Thousands of dollars] MARCH 1945 [Thousands of dollars] C u m u l a t i v e n e w loans (3 m o n t h s ) N e w loans Federal H o m e L o a n B a n k District a n d class of association UNITED STATES. Mar. 1945 _ _ __ Feb. 1945 Mar. 1944 1945 1944 Percent change $141, 481 $106, 009 $116,130 $349, 791 $295, 272 + 18.5 53, 883 165, 769 135,103 50, 686 153, 715 130, 281 11, 561 30, 307 29, 888 +22.7 + 18.0 + 1.4 49, 900 46, 575 9,534 69, 430 60, 688 11, 363 Federal State member_ _ _ Nonmember _ . 7, 541 5,875 7,136 20, 268 18, 385 + 10.2 Federal State m e m b e r . _ . __ _ Nonmember 3,742 3,059 740 2,499 2,776 600 2,683 3,313 1,140 8,688 9,491 2,089 6,233 9,238 2,914 +39.4 +2.7 -28.3 Boston . . New Y o r k . . __ Federal State m e m b e r . . _ Nonmember _ _ Pittsburgh _ __ Federal . S tate m e m b e r Nonmember Winston-Salem _ _. Federal State member Nonmember __ ... 12, 741 8, 845 8,748 31, 069 22, 210 +39.9 4,385 6,241 2,115 2,936 4,442 1,467 2,319 4,882 1,547 10, 580 15, 238 5,251 5,641 12, 456 4,113 +87.6 +22.3 +27.7 • 8,304 9,492 28,110 24, 462 +14.9 5,395 3,661 2,142 3,851 3,052 1,401 4,246 2,952 2, 294 13, 198 9,882 5,030 10,880 7,968 5,614 +21.3 +24.0 -10.4 17, 097 14, 212 15, 724 44,638 37, 659 +18. 5 9,577 6,656 864 7,501 5,916 795 9,206 5,777 741 24, 217 18, 000 2,421 20, 582 14, 993 2,084 +17.7 +20.1 +16.2 24,140 16, 578 19, 295 55, 789 48, 450 + 15.1 11,198 . .. _ 11, 273 11,465 1,402 6,869 8,478 1,231 7,667 9,939 1,689 24, 290 27, 757 3,742 19, 582 24, 297 4,571 +24.0 +14.2 -18.1 - _ 7,517 6,978 5,923 20, 111 16, 716 +20.3 Federal _ _._ . . State m e m b e r . . . . . . Nonmember . . _ 3,961 3,323 233 3,566 2,972 440 2,827 2,733 363 10, 308 8,812 991 8,170 7,670 876 +26.2 +14.9 + 13.1 Federal State member Nonmember Indianapolis . 281 3,050 6,147 5,036 2,033 25,491 182 9 90 1,247 244 956 153 387 63 1,015 668 3,310 531 303 320 1,441 542 2,172 338 340 203 622 57 991 32 299 32 5,814 2, 116 13, 239 1,396 2,113 813 10, 450 1,598 5,709 5,336 13, 058 5,384 41, 535 3,316 7,134 612 986 3,013 2,696 725 4,611 3,698 9,362 2,121 3,263 13, 483 28,052 10, 436 1,455 7,139 374 6,259 2,654 28, 317 206 9,201 1,029 119 1,041 295 169 5,554 1, 416 37 337 267 5,378 614 83 2,408 163 881 23, 919 3, 517 16, 765 2,598 5,614 127 16, 317 3,808 45, 229 579 2,823 2,237 1,889 4,084 2,332 433 2,386 261 241 552 290 129 689 262 174 467 499 790 1,305 655 442 468 988 1,077 1,929 6,054 1,439 1,571 1,379 755 2,113 412 416 761 443 221 604 281 670 2,796 5,908 10, 394 5, 366 6,787 5,446 2,199 6,333 ___ 29, 672 1,430 9,427 832 6,062 4,596 52, 019 .. 2,894 26, 094 684 337 730 363 978 7,667 782 832 378 5,039 645 156 1,659 2,781 4,743 42, 021 5,255 8,439 1,996 7,380 53 3,358 2,129 23, 355 5,281 3,158 630 1,366 2,556 4,824 53 1,137 2,221 882 1,247 10, 539 12, 816 18, 484 1, 216 5,661 18 7,573 9,655 42, 597 14, 215 4,269 "727 489 3,624 2,027 18 4,414 3,159 9,129 526 32,109 10, 488 9,492 1,683 6,808 156 5,764 4,317 28, 220 2,581 3,195 3,212 286 218 214 233 1,208 19 9 1,826 1,113 3,558 79 232 1,014 1,397 3,031 138 184 355 1,073 2,857 18 14 5,990 7,167 13, 866 540 657 9,455 4,143 2,506 8,299 2,693 27,096 570 2,456 386 270 5,773 25 1,701 96 6 2, 315 332 206 268 184 1,516 515 1,507 535 393 5,349 57 372 157 12 2,095 1,499 6,242 1,442 865 17,048 _. __ 8,776 930 2,655 5,934 1,597 19,892 Colorado._ _ . Kansas __ Nebraska_. O k l a h o m a __ 1,355 2,529 1,258 3,634 124 148 364 294 539 797 263 1,056 2,999 638 572 1,725 641 310 180 466 5 658 4,422 2,637 7,175 4,961 528 3,890 3,933 1,718 15, 586 371 235 1,583 476 2,171 125 35 27 218 150 98 186 138 362 725 2,289 190 417 259 1,583 307 1,062 305 67 50 232 148 1,195 26 1 076 709 4,032 1 806 7,317 646 New York. N e w J e r s e y . _ __ __ New York. _ _ _ _ _ Pittsburgh... _ .. Delaware Pennsylvania. _ _ _ W e s t Virginia Winston-Salem Alabama _ D i s t r i c t of C o l u m b i a Florida Georgia. _ M a r y l a n d _.. N o r t h C a r o l i n a . __ . S o u t h Carolina Virginia Kentucky _. Ohio Tennessee _ _ Indianapolis. _ _ Indiana _ ... M i c h i g a n __ Illinois _.__ _ Wisconsin 38,937 31, 883 +22.1 7,437 8,635 1,104 4,892 5,810 1,173 5,618 6,412 1,163 16, 283 19, 427 3,227 13,058 15, 819 3,006 +24.7 +22.8 +7.4 8,915 6,101 7,305 21,124 16, 480 +28.2 4,561 3,139 1,215 2,922 2,222 957 3,329 2,959 1,017 10,172 7,793 3,159 7,761 6.325 2,394 +31. 1 +23.2 +32.0 7,448 5, 767 6,244 19, 641 18,015 +9.0 3,647 3,717 84 2,871 2,801 95 2,797 3,349 98 9,713 9,678 250 7,166 10, 608 241 +35. 5 -8.8 +3.7 7,645 6,211 5,807 20, 069 14, 871 +35.0 4,087 2,314 1,244 3, 351 1,722 1,138 2,885 1,603 1,319 10, 703 5,936 3,430 7,284 4,136 3,451 +46.9 +43.5 -0.6 __ _ __ 4,923 4,023 3,930 12, 902 9,364 +37.8 Federal __ _ S t a t e m e m b e r . __ Nonmember __ _ _ 3,242 1,526 155 2, 656 1,192 175 2,714 1,103 113 8,330 4,097 475 6,396 ,2, 592 376 +30.2 +58.1 +26.3 Los Angeles _ __ __ ___ 15,140 11, 240 13,333 37,133 36, 777 + 1.0 Los Angeles Federal . _. _ State member Nonmember. 8,123 6,952 65 5,986 5,192 62 7,592 5,664 77 19, 287 17, 604 242 22, 350 14, 179 248 -13.7 +24.2 -2.4 Arizona California Nevada. Federal . _ __ S t a t e m e m b e r . . . . ._ N o n m e m b e r _. _ _. L i t t l e Rock Federal _ ______ State member . Nonmember _ __ Topeka. F e d e r a l . . __ State m e m b e r . . . Nonmember Portland May 1945 . _ Chicago._ . 13,193 Federal _ __ State member Nonmember Total 1,307 596 5,720 342 784 195 __ C o n n e c t i c u t __ _ M a i n e __ M a s s a c h u s e t t s . _ _ __ N e w H a m p s h i r e . __ Rhode Island._. V e r m o n t - . . __. 11, 875 . Other mortgagees $20, 669 $80, 000 $13, 599 $114, 971 $52, 737 $433, 337 __ 17,176 C h i c a g o , . __ Individuals 8,944 Boston Cincinnati. Cincinnati... Savings Insur- B a n k s M u and tual and ance trust savloan comings associa- panies companies b a n k s tions Federal H o m e Loan B a n k District and State Des M o i n e s . Iowa... . _ Minnesota _ _ _ Missouri . North Dakota ._ South D a k o t a . . . . . . . Little R o c k . . . . Arkansas__ _ ... Louisiana . . . ___ . Mississippi N e w Mexico _ Texas. _ Topeka Portland... Idaho . . . . . M o n t a n a . ._ Oregon . . . Utah Washington Wyoming.. ... ._ __ 127 156 556 54 502 15,487 2,811 20,171 33, 378 12,153 84, 000 336 15,062 89 568 2,811 19,465 138 1,515 85 31, 493 12,047 370 21 2,504 80,878 618 245 Table 9 . — M O R T G A G E RECORDINGS—Estimated volume of nonfarm mortgages recorded [Dollar a m o u n t s are s h o w n in t h o u s a n d s ] Savings a n d loan associations 1944. Insurance companies Total Total $1,563,678 $256,173 January-March. March April May June July August September October November December Banks and trust companies Percent Total | Percent $877, 762 61, 998 22. 660 19, 671 21, 794 22. 215 24, 707 22, 646 22, 432 20,985 20, 543 19,182 6.3 6.1 5.3 5.4 5.3 6.0 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.3 54, 17, 16, 20, 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.8 M u t u a l savings banks 19.0 Total Individuals Percent Total $1,134,054 $165, 054 19.7 19.2 19.6 19.5 18.8 19.7 19.3 18.5 18.0 18.2 18.0 30, 280 11, 255 12, 338 14, 882 15, 536 15. 261 15, 920 15, 447 16,552 15,176 13, 662 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 18.6 18.4 18.9 18.5 36, 442 12,500 10, 343 13, 599 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.1 O t h e r mortgagees Percent Total Percent $613,908 24.6 All mortgagees Total $4, 610, 629 100.0 979, 833 368, 240 369, 268 405, 095 421, 631 411,136 530, 776 416,185 422, 839 393, 639 360, 227 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 100.0 100.0 1,126, 612 354, 578 338, 697 433, 337 100.0 100. 0 100. 0 100.0 23.9 24.2 24.2 23.6 23.5 23.9 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.3 26. 5 1945 January-March. January February March 374, C17 111, 480 111,176 151,361 585 882 034 669 209, 042 65,109 63, 933 80, 000 Table 1 0 — S A V I N G S — S a l e s of war bonds 1 1944 March April. _ May. . June . July August -_ September October ._ . _ . November December 1945 Januarv _ March Series F Series E ._ $12,379,891 $772, 767 575, 714 605, 709 624, 253 1,349, 794 1, 686, 509 499, 357 590, 827 598, 570 806,817 1, 855,300 22, 933 19, 306 15, 287 115,119 101,082 17, 807 15,953 13,653 42, 680 124, 669 803,819 653,222 712,133 42,034 30,695 26, 487 1 U . S. T r e a s u r y W a r Savings Staff. t h e U . S, T r e a s u r y . Series G 27.3 28.0 27.5 26.5 145, 48, 43, 52, 107 407 963 737 12.9 13.7 13.0 12.2 Table 1 1 . — F H A — H o m e mortgages insured * [ T h o u s a n d s of dollars] Period 307, 419 99, 200 93, 248 114,971 [ P r e m i u m p a y i n g ; t h o u s a n d s of dollars] Total Redemptions Title II Title VI (603) Period $2,891, 427 $16, 044, 085 $13,263,168 110, 347 113, 528 111,088 377, 284 337,459 85, 272 85, 286 82, 871 173,858 405, 880 709, 054 738, 543 750,628 1, 842,197 2,125,050 602,436 692,066 695,094 1,023,355 2,385, 849 261, 549 230, 614 271, 597 241, 278 220,145 272,125 277, 445 394, 846 376, 053 358, 572 228,327 164,073 150, 456 1, 074,180 847, 990 889, 076 333,443 317,083 437, 892 A c t u a l deposits m a d e to t h e credit of New 1944: M a r c h April May June July August September October-... November. December. $250 130 81 81 82 90 79 40 54 31 1945: J a n u a r y . . . February.. March Existing $12, 13, 18, 17, 18, 20, 19, 21, 21, 18, Total insured a t end of period 729 200 319 768 322 256 967 941 646 269 $41,620 36, 793 37, 739 34, 238 42, 322 48,166 42, 592 43,354 38, 053 36, 573 $5, 494,374 5, 544, 497 5, 600, 636 5, 652, 723 5, 713, 449 5, 781, 961 5, 844. 599 5, 909. 934 5, 969, 687 6, 024, 560 19, 006 14,085 16,480 38, 640 31,417 29,886 6, 082, 273 6,127, 802 6,174,205 1 Figures r e p r e s e n t gross i n s u r a n c e w ritten d u r i n g t h e period a n d do n o t t a k e a c c o u n t of p r i n c i p a l r e p a y m e n t s on previously i n s u r e d loans. Table 1 2 . — F H L B A N K S — L e n d i n g operations and principal assets and liabilities [ T h o u s a n d s of dollars] L e n d i n g operations, M a r c h 1945 P r i n c i p a l assets, M a r c h 31, 1945 C a p i t a l a n d p r i n c i p a l liabilities, M a r c h 31, 1945 Federal H o m e Loan B a n k Advances Little Rock Topeka Portland . _.__._-- - - - - M a r c h 1945 ( C o m b i n e d t o t a l ) . _ F e b r u a r y 1945 __ _ ._ M a r c h 1944 - Cash i Governm e n t securities Capital2 $1, 287 1,957 1,264 1,224 1,360 1,580 4,060 722 470 275 887 5,796 $6,822 4,446 7,028 4,395 3,118 5,758 10, 487 2,268 3,742 2,875 377 9,743 $1,654 1,193 4,508 1,428 3,679 2,223 3,284 1,043 786 1,279 418 3,245 $15, 039 48, 400 13, 229 13, 001 34, 795 18,127 20,947 20, 623 10,220 8,192 11,113 19, 691 $20, 243 27, 846 16,954 17, 959 26, 688 14, 833 23, 260 13, 288 12, 565 10, 891 8,663 16, 357 2,770 20, 882 61,059 24, 740 233,377 1,534 28,090 79,170 27, 437 191, 784 3,190 17,965 99, 378 30, 237 164, 706 $105 78 274 70 192 93 1,031 98 120 69 75 565 ' Includes interbank deposits. 246 Repayments Advances outstanding 2 Debentures $2,000 5,000 5,500 Member deposits Total assets M a r c h 31, 1945 1 2,500 5,000 6,000 8,500 2,000 1,000 2,000 10, 500 $1,327 21, 289 2,393 921 12, 664 6,361 5,726 2,197 225 476 1,291 5,872 $23, 575 54,156 24,864 18,883 41,884 26, 212 35,011 24, 003 14, 796 12, 369 11,959 32, 757 209, 547 50, 000 60, 742 320, 469 208, 353 50, 000 41,824 300, 385 201, 684 64, 300 24, 207 294, 975 C a p i t a l stock, s u r p l u s a n d u n d i v i d e d profits. Federal Home Loan Bank Review Table 1 3 — I N S U R E D A S S O C I A T I O N S — P r o g r e s s of institutions insured by the FSLIC [Dollar a m o u n t s w shown n thousands] Operations Number of associations Period a n d class of association ALL N e t first mortgages held Total assets Cash Government bond holdings Private re purchasable capital Government share capital Federal Home Loan Bank advances New mortgage loans N e w private investments Private repurchases Repurchase ratio INSURED $52. 584 193, 452 $2, 612, 736 2, 983, 310 $185, 664 169,167 $167, 535 113,977 $56, 934 46, 705 $56, 701 91, 029 $47, 086 30, 219 83.0 33.2 241, 818 376,177 580, 087 581, 651 3,105, 080 3, 270, 834 3, 389,891 3, 573,896 120,138 119, 252 69, 920 69, 693 66, 970 78,155 118,153 100, 340 61,139 76, 899 87, 878 70, 973 83, 403 103, 939 83, 970 118,496 48, 955 33, 704 60,019 37, 885 58.7 32.4 71.5 32.0 356 705 609 739 50,868 50,832 37, 721 37, 701 90,103 118, 743 86, 840 123, 466 87,163 105, 245 101,658 83,408 104,494 127, 945 122,016 142, 291 56, 693 46, 560 56,102 45, 985 54.3 36.4 46.0 32.3 327,151 1, 262, 429 4, 538, 426 28, 781 54, 365 110, 287 138, 709 71,488 51.5 1,832,341 1,853,868 99, 247 164, 430 28, 775 117,339 1, 667, 983 1,882,051 150. 776 137, 208 123,748 84,135 36, 325 27, 381 37, 377 58,937 30,000 16, 530 80.3 28.0 300,638 426,079 523, 737 617, 431 1, 839, 302 1, 865, 991 1,896,312 1, 915, 771 156, 792 170,730 109,181 183, 038 146, 537 235, 524 369, 954 373,325 1, 953, 846 2, 060, 502 2,135, 010 2, 257, 002 96,109 96,109 55, 021 55, 021 46, 56, 87, 74, 820 553 648 780 37,850 46, 730 54,100 43, 647 54,824 68, 235 53,138 76, 677 30, 238 19, 586 37, 274 21, 569 55.2 28.7 70.1 28.1 1,466 1,465 1,464 1,464 2, 709, 897 2, 881, 276 2, 961, 860 3,168, 731 1,927,122 1,972,881 2, 024, 635 2, 058, 045 135, 664 48, 913 151,862 166,764 509.170 620, 016 652, 085 810, 013 2, 2, 2, 2, 39, 39, 29, 29, 957 948 562 647 63,892 84, 602 60, 877 90, 257 53,883 64,474 63, 489 51, 586 68, 276 83. 856 79,126 93, 400 36,182 25,969 35, 570 26,049 53.0 31.0 45 0 27.9 1,465 3, 237, 942 2, 081, 813 192, 9G4 832, 311 2, 895,120 22, 616 37,109 69, 430 91, 627 46, 574 50.8 897 931 1,197,522 1,351,703 941, 767 1, 017, 773 62, 554 92, 040 23,809 76,113 944, 753 1,101, 259 34,888 31, 959 43,787 29, 842 20, 609 19, 324 19, 324 32,092 17, 086 13, 689 88.4 42.7 948 960 969 981 1, 390. 280 1,454,920 1. 514,189 1, 565, 297 1, 029,108 1, 052, 586 1,075,099 1, 093, 254 103, 957 106, 055 77, 773 119,518 95, 281 140, 653 210,133 208, 326 1,151,234 1,210,332 1,254,881 1, 316, 894 24, 029 23,143 14, 899 14, 672 20,150 21, 602 30, 505 25, 560 23, 289 30.169 33, 778 27, 326 28, 579 35, 704 30,832 41,819 18,717 14,118 22, 745 16, 316 65 5 39.5 73.8 39.0 986 996 996 1,002 1, 617, 971 1, 702, 292 1, 752, 015 1,843, 931 1,108, 079 1,144, 704 1,177,724 1,201,774 92, 639 91,023 104,388 102, 937 279, 334, 345, 417, 684 918 898 438 1,364,314 1, 433, 920 1, 493, 044 1, 572, 812 10,911 10, 884 8,159 8,054 26,211 34,141 25, 963 33, 209 33, 280 40, 771 38.169 31, 822 36, 218 44, 089 42, 890 48,891 20, 511 20. 591 20, 532 19,936 56.6 46.7 47.9 40.8 1,000 1, 898, 961 1, 218, 788 134, 247 430,118 1,643,306 6,165 17, 256 40, 857 47,082 24, 914 52.9 2,358 2,398 $3, 335,101 3, 651, 598 $2. 774,108 2,871, 641 •___ 2,415 2,428 2.440 2,447 3, 690, 918 3, 880, 999 4, 037, 926 4,182, 728 2, 868, 410 2, 918, 577 2,971,411 3, 009, 025 260, 276, 186, 302, 749 785 954 556 1944: M a r c h . _ June _ ... September._ .__ _ _ . . . . December . _ ._ 2,452 2,461 2,460 2,466 4, 4, 4, 5, 327, 868 583, 568 713, 875 012, 662 3, 035, 201 3,117, 585 3, 202, 359 3, 259,819 228, 239, 256, 269, 303 788, 854 936 954, 934 250 997, 983 701 1, 227, 451 1945: M a r c h 2,465 5,136, 903 3, 300, 601 _•_ _ 1,461 1,467 2,137, 579 2, 299, 895 _ _ __ 1,467 1,468 1,471 1,466 2, 2, 2, 2, 1944: M a r c h June -_ September December.. 1945: M a r c h 1942: M a r c h D e c e m b e r . - _. 1943: M a r c h June September December... __ $161,801 256, 470 3, 3, 4, 4, 710, 922, 092, 333, FEDERAL 1942: M a r c h December. 1943: M a r c h June.. September December . __ 346, 488, 599, 760, 042 785 565 927 STATE 1942: M a r c h December 1943: M a r c h J u n e . . . . _. September December ... . 1944: M a r c h June September December.. _ _ . . . __ .. 1945: M a r c h Table 1 4 . — S A V I N G S — H e l d by institutions Table 15 —FORECLOSURES—Estimated non- [Thousands of dollars] farm real-estate foreclosures, by Federal E n d of period , 1942: M a r c h June September... _ December 1943: M a r c h June September December 1944: M a r c h June September December 1945: M a r c h Insured savings a n d loans l $2, 2, 2, 2, 612, 736, 834, 983, 736 258 079 310 ... 3,105,080 3, 270, 834 3, 389, 891 3, 573, 896 _.. 3, 3, 4, 4, 710, 922, 092, 333, 356 705 609 739 4, 538, 426 Mutual savings banks 3 $10, 354, 533 10, 620, 958 Insured commercial banks 3 $14, 889, 560 15, 704, 991 11,104,707 16,897,124 11, 707, 025 18, 572, 406 12, 428,026 20, 543, 888 13, 331, 811 23, 362, 909 Postal savings $1, 305, 427 1, 315, 523 1, 357, 718 1, 417, 406 1,492,966 1, 577, 526 1, 683, 497 1, 787, 994 1, 905,864 2,034,136 2,197, 701 2, 342, 297 2, 513, 354 i Private ^purchasable capital as reported to the FHLB Administration. Month's Work. All deposits. FDIC. These figures have been revised to show total time deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporations. 4 Balance on deposit to credit of depositors, including unclaimed accounts. March total is unaudited. 2 3 May 1945 Home Loan Bank District 4 Foreclosures Federal H o m e L o a n Bank District U N I T E D STATES Boston . New York. _. Pittsburgh Winston-Salem Cincinnati Indianapolis Chicago-Des M o i n e s Little R o c k Topeka... P o r t l a n d . . . . _____ Los Angeles__. C u m u l a t i v e (3 m o n t h s ) Mar. 1945 Feb. 1945 Jan. 1945 Mar. 1944 Jan.Mar. 1945 Jan.Mar. 1944 1,431 1,340 1,153 1,693 3,924 4,766 17 7 137 322 296 139 168 37 45 62 84 99 10 32 170 283 218 111 130 120 60 53 46 62 12 75 130 333 179 124 117 66 34 44 23 65 9 29 175 454 294 160 156 29 109 92 59 63 11 91 437 938 693 374 415 223 139 159 153 226 31 136 745 1,207 777 464 458 90 260 256 120 162 28 199 41 3 22 3 -HK8 -19.4 9 4 +147. 8 -46.5 -37.9 +27.5 +39. 5 + 10.7 -31.7 Percent change 247