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TH E DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR ENERGY Perry D. Teitelbaum, economist, Council for Economic and Industry Research, Inc., and Philip Mullenbach, research director, Nuclear Energy Study, the Twentieth Century Fund, Washington, D. C.1 The next 25 years will undoubtedly see the large-scale entry of nuclear energy into a variety of applications as a consequence of sub stantial progress in nuclear technology for peaceful uses. This period will also see substantial economic growth in the United States, accom panied by a major rise in energy consumption as a whole. In the rest of the world, growth in economic activity and particularly energy is likely to be even more rapid. The United States supply of conventional energy, including over seas oil sources, seems generally adequate to meet projected demands on it, if foreign demands could be ignored. But the combined require ments of all countries may tax the world supply to a relatively greater degree, with inevitable consequences for the United States supply situation. This, too, will influence the rate of entry of nuclear energy. In these circumstances it may be useful to analyze the likely mag nitudes of future energy demand and supply, including the scale and scope of nuclear energy, as a background for considering the basic problem before this panel, Federal expenditures for atomic-energy development. The first section of this paper presents projections of United States energy supply and demand over the next quarter century (nominally, to 1980) and indicates some of their implications. The second section considers the problems of policy criteria in regard to public expendi tures on atomic energy for peaceful uses. E n e r g y P r o je c t io n s a n d E c o n o m ic G r o w t h Nuclear energy “needs” In seeking to establish a frame of reference for the present pro jections, we may usefully begin with the following classification of nuclear energy “needs.” As suggested subsequently, we are here con cerned mostly with domestic “needs.” 1. Military, including weapons and reactors for propulsion, power, and heat. 1 The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the organiza tions with which they are associated. The authors were formerly on the staff of the National Planning Association project on the productive uses of nuclear energy. This paper is based, in part, on the research and publications of the NPA project. Mr. Teitel baum takes primary responsibility for the first section on energy projections and economic growth, and Mr. Mullenbach takes primary responsibility for the second section on nuclear energy expenditures and national policy. The authors gratefully acknowledge the coopera tion of the staff of the National Planning Association and of the Division of Finance, AEC. 715 716 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 2. Foreign relations, based on intangibles associated with for eign policy, such as prestige derived from technical leadership, and the tangibles of foreign markets. _ 3. Domestic, including power, heat, propulsion, and radiation. In the past, almost all of the United States investment in nuclear research and development, and in physical plant and equipment has been directed toward military applications. Progress toward non military applications has been largely a byproduct. This situation has been slowly changing in the past few years, although expendi tures for m ilitary applications still represent an overwhelming pro portion of the total. In future periods, considering the already high level of weapons production and stockpiles th at undoubtedly exist, and the ever-broadening economic potentials for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, strictly military applications may account for suc cessively smaller, although still substantial, fractions of public and private expenditures. Determination of a suitable balance by the Federal Government between outlays for m ilitary and nonmilitary applications will mostly depend on factors peculiar to each; only to the extent that military applications yield byproducts for other appli cations need they be considered together. There is also a “need” to maintain technical leadership in nuclear science and technology as an adjunct of United States foreign policy. In the present juncture of world affairs, great importance is attached to achieving preeminence in this field. Such leadership may also be instrumental in securing suitable international control of the atom for peaceful purposes.2 Some consideration must therefore be given in any policy deliberations to maintaining this leadership. Related to the foregoing foreign policy considerations, but suscepti ble of separate treatment, are the economic opportunities for United States industry to supply foreign demands for nuclear fuels, reactors, and related goods and services. While no systematic overall analysis of the United States share of this “market” has as yet been undertaken, it is possible that many opportunities will exist in the next few decades. Table 1 below indicates the general order of magnitude of these foreign demands. Since these data refer exclusively to electric power genera tion, they would be substantially enhanced if nuclear energy becomes significant in industrial heat and propulsion applications. The foreign market may also represent a useful “crutch” for a domestic nuclear industry to lean on during its early years: The higher competitive cost thresholds for nuclear power and heat in foreign markets as compared with those in the United States will offer domes tic producers of nuclear fuels and hardware an opportunity to “earn while they learn” during the next decade, at least, so that the experi ence gained could yield improvements in nuclear technology with resulting cost reductions which may permit a subsequent large-scale entry into the United States market. s See Summary of Findings—Policy Suggestions for the Future, Reports on Productive Uses of Nuclear Energy, National Planning Association, Washington, September 1957, ch. VI, for a fuller discussion of this question. 717 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY T ab le 1.— R a n g e o f fr e e w orld r eq u irem en ts fo r n u c lea r pow er, 1956 and about 1980 [Thousands of kilowatts, at high plant factor] 1955 conven tional power capacity Free world Western Europe: Nuclear power capacity 1980 1965 47.688 27, 250 26,269 2,000- 8,000 5,000- 6.000 500- 1,000 60.000- 75,000 50.000- 66,000 5,000- 15,000 101,207 7,500-15,000 115,000-156,000 India_.............................................................................. 14, 512 3,221 2, 940 500- 1,000 100- 500 200- 500 9 .500- 15,000 1.500- 3,000 500- 1,500 Total__________________________________________ Africa..................................................................................... 20,673 5, 510 8W- 2,000 200- 500 11,500- 19,500 1,500- 3,000 North America: United States.................................................................. Canada....... .................................................................... All others....................................................................... 130,896 12,678 3, 299 1, 500- 4,000 500- 1,000 100- 500 60,000-227,000 5,000- 15,000 500- 1,000 146,873 2,100- 5,500 65, 500-243,000 Asia: South America: All others................................... . .............................. Total............................................................................. 2, 970 4,987 100100- 500 500 2.000- 3,000 2.000- 3,000 7,957 4, 459 200- 1,000 200- 500 4.000- 6,000 1.000- 3,000 286,679 11, 000-24, 500 197,500-430,500 Source: Summary of Findings, ibid., table V -l, p. 45. From the viewpoint of the domestic economy, nuclear energy can most usefully be thought of as an energy source which will acquire significance by preempting energy markets or applications based on its unique characteristics. In some cases, particularly in regard to radiation energy and some applications of high temperature furnace heat in industry, both of these developments will occur simultaneously. The present projections are concerned largely with the entry of nu clear energy into the domestic fuel and energy economy and they ignore other possible nuclear markets. To the extent that this “par tial” analysis is valid, policymakers are free to alter the stated pro jections and implications to introduce the influences of the broader issues of m ilitary and foreign policy and of foreign markets for nuclear energy. Specific underlying assumptions Generally speaking, the present projections assume a continuation of the essentially full employment conditions which have character ized the United States economy in the post-World W ar I I decade. They also assume that the cold war will continue, with continued heavy outlays for defense and foreign military and economic aid ; that population growth will be ra p id ; and, based on the full employment assumption, that industrial technological progress will proceed at a more rapid pace than in the past.3 * The present projections are taken from a staff study prepared by Perry D. Teltelbaun for the National Planning Association project on the productive uses of nuclear energy. 97735—57------47 718 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY The following assumptions were made regarding fuel and energy prices and costs: 4 1. Nuclear energy costs: These can be best illustrated in the case of electric power generation. (See table 2.) T a b l e 2.— N u c le a r p ow er co st a ssu m p tio n s Large plants Cost item Short term (1965) Small plants Long term (1980) Short term (1965) Long term (1980) Plant cost, per kilowatt.........- .......................... $225 $150 $350 $190 Generating costs at a 50 percent lifetime plant factor (in mills per kilowatt-hour): Fixed charges1............................................... Operating and maintenance......................... Fuel costs2..................................................... 6.9 2.0 3.0 4.6 .5 .8 10.8 2.5 4.7 5.9 1.5 2.5 T otal.. ------------- -------------------------------- 11.9 5.9 18.0 9.9 See footnote 3. 1 At 13H percent, consisting of: Interest, 1.5 percent; equity return, 4 percent; Federal income taxes, 4 percent; other taxes and charges, 2.2 percent; insurance, 0.2 percent; and replacement and amortization, 1.6 percent. These figures assume a 50-50 bond-equity private financial structure with an average 8 per* cent equity return. Federal income taxes were figured at 50 percent, other taxes at about the national aver age. The amortization and replacement component reflects a 25- to 35-year plant life on a sinking fund basis. 2 Includes fuel inventory. 2. Coal: A t most, an average rise in delivered prices of 15 to 20 percent is envisaged by 1980, based on ample reserves, an increasingly alert and aggressive management, substantial progress in mining techniques, a decreased tendency for coal miners’ wages to continue to rise more rapidly than those in other industry groups, and lowered transportation costs. (See 5 below.) 3. Oil: Increased dependence on ample overseas sources (assuming no drastic changes in the Middle Eastern situation), the low ceiling on United States crude oil price rises imposed by shale oil, and the continued availability of United States sources of supply, assuming improved techniques of finding and drilling for new-oil reserves and of producing oil, all suggest only a moderate oil price rise at most. 4. Natural Gas: Domestic supplies are deemed ample to support projected demand, although average well prices may increase sub stantially. The domestic supply may also be augmented by Canadian and Mexican gas and by the development of tankers carrying natural gas liquefied under pressure and at low temperature. 5. Fuel transportation: Through a variety of developments, fuel and energy transportation real costs are expected to continue their long-term downward trend. These developments include increased use of barges, conveyor belts, and pipelines for coal; supertankers for o il; larger pipelines and tankers for natural g as; and improved long distance transmission techniques for electric energy. Other underlying assumptions include the following: In constant 1955 prices, gross national product in 1980 is projected to rise by about 1.3 times above 1955 levels. This yields a figure of around $900 billion (or $960 billion in 1957 prices). The industrial production 4 All references to prices or costs should be understood to be In real, or constant dollar, terms. 719 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY index is projected to 324 (1956=143); steel ingot production is esti mated at 225 million tons (117 million tons in 1955); and electric power generation is projected to 1,795 billion kilowatt-hours (629 billion in 1955).5 Energy supply and demand in 1980 Based on the foregoing assumptions (and on other related assump tions), we have projected domestic primary energy consumption to double between 1955 and 1980, from 40.3 to 80.9 X1015 b. t. u. Table 3 summarizes this projection in terms of supply by prim ary fuels: T a b l e 3.— D o m e s tic en ergy con su m p tio n “b y p rim ary so u rce, 1955 and 1980 1955 Primary energy source Bituminous coal and lignite (million tons). Liquid petroleum products1 (billion T o ta l.-............................................ 1980 Conven tional units 10 B. t. u. 423.4 23.6 11.1 .6 27.2 1.5 } 2.81 10.1 118 16.3 10.9 1.4 41.1 26.7 3.4 40.3 100.0 Percent of total Conven tional units 10 B. t. u. 735 19.2 23.7 5.8 17.4 271 33.6 18.7 2.4 7.0 41.5 23.1 3.0 8.7 80.9 100.0 Percent of total i May include liquid fuels in 1980 derived from shale oil and coal, as well as from crude oil, although no allowance is made for this in the coal projection. Source: See footnote 3. Table 4 summarizes the energy consumption projections and their nuclear shares in applications liable to nuclear competition. The overall nuclear share of these components is approximately one-sixth. Comparison of the total for these applications (39.6 X1015 B. t. u.) with the total for all energy in table 3 (80.9X1015 B. t. u.) demon strates that roughly half of total energy consumption in 1980 will not be affected directly by nuclear energy.6 nuclear energy. 5 1980 was chosen as the target date for the projections solely as an analytical expedient. It should more properly be considered to represent a convenient way of saying “the next 2 or 3 decades.” 6 It may be noted that tables 4 and 5 include estimates of energy consumption for mili tary purposes. These estimates are introduced solely to have a complete account of the domestic energy budget and represent rough approximations of the appropriate components. The figure for the U. S. Navy is largely based on publicly announced plans for nuclear naval capacity as applied to total capacity of naval vessels on active duty. The figure for the Air Force is essentially an arbitrary estimate. These estimates have no significance, however, in regard to current or future outlays on military or civilian applications of 720 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY T a b l e 4. — Potential nuclear share of energy consumption in competitive applications, 1980 Installed capacity, 106 kilowatts (heat) Energy consuming category Total Nuclear 732 0) U. S. Navy..................................................... ................. U. S. Air Force ................... ....... 122 169 60 (0 0) Energy consump tion, 1012 B. t. u. Total Nuclear Nuclear share of total (percent) 192 53 23 8 60 40 17 14,798 20,740 2,064 1,000 450 500 (0 4.307 1,454 491 96 450 110 100 29 7 24 10 393 39,552 7,008 2 16 1 Not estimated. * Civilian categories only. Source: See footnote 3. Table 5 summarizes significant aspects of the competitive interfuel struggle derived in conjunction with the projections in tables 3 and 4: the projected displacement of fossil fuels and hydro by nuclear energy in particular applications. Table 5 .— Projected displacement of conventional energy by nuclear energy, by consuming sectors, 1980 [In 1012 B. t. u.] Energy consuming sector Added— nuclear energy Displaced— Coal Oil Gas Hydro 4,307 1, 454 491 96 450 110 100 2,260 765 884 408 491 96 450 110 20 276 281 51 7,008 1270 17 3,025 2 116 26 2,459 410 15 557 * 538 5 51 «5.6 5 i Million tons coal equivalent. * Million tons. * Million barrels. * Billion cubic feet. 8 Billion kilowatt-hours. N ote: Totals do not balance because a higher thermal efficiency is assumed in conventional than in nu clear electric-power generation. In addition, the conventional energy losses in the “other military” cate gory, except for an estimated substitution for oil by package power reactors, cannot be soecifled because of its miscellaneous nature. 8ource: See footnote 3. Because of their long-run nature and because of their dependence on assumptions that are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty, the foregoing projections must be considered to offer no more than an estimate of the relevant orders of magnitude. Nevertheless, the nuclear projections are more likely to be too low than too h ig h : first, because generally conservative assumptions were introduced at various stages in their derivation; second, because we cannot make any al lowances for applications of nuclear energy that are as yet undiscerni ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 721 ble. The potential pervasiveness of such applications may be ap preciated, however, by considering as an analogue the impact that electric energy has had on the pattern of energy consumption during the past quarter century, in terms of its direct substitution for other energy forms and of new uses that were unknown in 1930. Others have undertaken more detailed considerations of the poten tial impacts of nuclear energy on specific energy-intensive industries.1 To a large extent, these analyses concern applications of nuclear elec tric energy, exclusively; hence they ignore the possibilities (considered in the present projections) of either low or high temperature nuclearbased heat in industrial applications. They are also based on energycost comparisons which may since have shifted slightly in favor of nuclear energy, at least for the long run. The present projections of nuclear energy in industry, which thus cover a wider range of possi bilities, may therefore on this score appear more optimistic than would be indicated by these other studies. Im p lica tio n s fo r p ublic policy and economic g ro w th The prim ary implications of these projections for future economic growth and for emerging questions of energy policy are these: F irst, potential supplies of fossil fuels available to the United States appear sufficient to meet projected demands at no more than moderate increases in real costs over the next quarter century. Nuclear energy can be expected to become competitive in the United States only as the result of substantial progress in technology and cost reduction. Second, the growth of total energy demand required to sustain eco nomic development is rapid, with total energy consumption expected to double and electric power consumption expected to triple in 25 years. All forms of energy supply will be called on to meet this growth. As a supplementary source, nuclear energy can help in meet ing a part of growing boiler fuel needs, in providing a restraint on price increases of fossil fuels, in reducing the disparity between energy cost differentials in various regions of the United States, and in pro viding stimulus to the economic growth of such regions as New E ng land and the upper Mississippi Valley where energy costs have con strained the development of energy-intensive industrial activity. Third, nuclear energy alone cannot solve the problem of the steadily .growing dependence of the Nation’s energy economy on fluid fuels, secured in p art from lower cost foreign sources that seem vulnerable to interruption. Aside from the contribution of nuclear energy in special applications such as ship propulsion, the United States econ omy will have to look mainly to a domestic synthetic liquid fuels industry, from shale or coal, to lessen the dependence on foreign sources of petroleum. Finally, owing to the close interrelations existing between different energy sources and between domestic and overseas supplies, the Nation for many years has needed and still needs an overall energy policy. While recognizing that nuclear fuel has already multiplied the Na tion’s energy potential, such an overall policy should be concerned with broadening the energy base and assuring supplies at m inimum cost, consistent with considerations of national security. 7 See, for example, Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, S. H. Schurr and J. Marschak, Princeton U niversity Press, 1950; and Atomic Power, W. Isard and V. W hitney, B lakiston Co., 1952. 722 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY The economic growth of other advanced industrial nations of the free world has already been seriously affected by the constraints im posed by inadequate and assured energy sources at reasonable costs. W ith proper management of our resources—including the technology of synthetic liquid fuels and of nuclear energy—there need be no sim ilar problem here. We can therefore meet the expanding energy needs implied by the rapid economic growth foreseen in the United States during, and far beyond, the next generation. N uclear E nergy E x p e n d it u r e s a n d N a t io n a l P o l ic ie s Development of nuclear energy in the United States, we have seen, will be one of several technical advances th at will help to broaden the energy base of the economy, restrain the tendency toward rising cost of energy sources and hence contribute to longtime economic growth. Yet, the influence of nuclear energy on resource development is un likely to be large in the short term. Federal expenditures for nuclear energy could depart substantially from present levels without pro ducing immediately discernible effects upon resource development and economic growth. The connection between development expenditures now and the Nation’s future growth, while remote in time, is nonetheless real. In deed, the wide range of nuclear energy applications, not merely in electric power, but also in ship propulsion, radiation, and process heat, seems certain to result in long-term economic benefits here and abroad. Moreover, large public and private investment undoubtedly will be necessary to achieve the long and difficult transition from technical to economic feasibility of all these applications. Applications receiving the largest investment support in the devel opment phase may not prove to De the ones contributing the most to longer term growth. The nonpower uses, such as radiation process ing, may prove more productive, in terms of increments in national product per dollar of research and development expense, than may reactor-produced electricity.8 B ut the economic effects of nuclear energy’s wide application—and particularly electric power—should be assessed not alone by cost-benefit relations or by economic growth potentialities. Especially important will be the extent to which the Nation’s generally accepted foreign and domestic policies may be supported by the development of nuclear energy, and help provide solutions to worldwide energy problems. Most of the productive applications of nuclear energy are deep in the developmental stage and may remain so for several years. Only isotopes, thus far, have crossed the threshold into competitive useful ness. F or this series of Joint Economic Committee papers, perhaps the atomic-energy expenditure programs fall more sensibly into the “research and development” category than “natural resources.” No single classification can be satisfactory, however, since the purposes of nuclear-energy development are multiple, covering national security, foreign aid, as well as natural resource development. National poli cies governing the scale and quality of this development program have roots extending into virtually all the budget categories used by the committee’s staff. 8 Addresses by ABC Commissioner Libby have reported the hundreds of millions of dol lars th a t have already been saved by industrial applications of isotopes. 723 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY Size and direction o f development spending The magnitude of peacetime public expenditures for atomic energy— military and civilian purposes—is without parallel. Since the be ginning of the effort in the National Research Council (1940), the total investment by the Government has exceeded $17 billion, of which $15 billion has been expended since the war. (See table 6.) The investment in plant approaches $6.6 billion, and costs of all operations are now nearly $2.0 billion. The Commission’s major expansion pro grams, begun in 1950, have now been largely completed and yearly costs of new plant are running at $320 million—one-fourth of the peak reached in fiscal year 1954. (See tables 6, 7, and 8.) T a b l e 6.— U. S. Government investment in atomie-eneryy program, June 1940 through June 1957 ( preliminary) [In m illions] Ap pro p riatio n paym ents, net of reim bursement W ar D epartm ent (NDRC, OSRD, and MED) : Fiscal year 1941 through fiscal year 1947 ( p a r t) _________________________________________ $2,233.4 Atomic Energy Commission: Fiscal year 1947 (p art) through fiscal year 1957_____________________________________________________ 13,577.6 T otal payments, net________________________________________ 15, 811. 0 Unexpended balance of appropriations, June 30, 1957________________ 11 , 284. 8 A ppropriations tran sferred -----------------------------------------------------------5.6 T otal appropriated funds___________________________________ 17,101.4 Less collections paid to U. S. T reasury and property and services transferred to other F ederal agencies ( n e t) _______________________ 107. 6 T otal investm ent through June 30, 1957-------------------------------- 16, 993. 8 Less cost of operations, including depreciation and obsolescence from June 1940 through June 30, 1957________________________________ 8, 591. 4 AEC equity a t June 30, 1957_________________________________ 8, 402.4 1 $2,324,000,000 of appropriations for fiscal year 1958 not included. Source : 1956 Financial Report, U. S. Atomic Energy Commission, October 1956. liminary 1957 data from Division of Finance, AEC, Oct. 2, 1957. P re T a b le 7.— Summary financial data for IJ. 8. Atomic Energy Commission, fiscal years 1950-57 fin millions of dollars] Fiscal year- Cost of operations1 414.8 1950........................ 1951........................ 1952___ ________ 684.2 1953........ ............... 904.6 1954____________ 1,039.2 1955____________ 1,289.5 1,608.0 1956____ _______ 1957 (preliminary). 1,968.3 Percent increase 494.6 38.3 32.2 14.9 24.1 24.7 22.4 Plant con struction costs incurred 256.1 19.2 1,082.2 1,125.6 1,215.1 842.5 301.7 317.0 Percent change 459.2 79.3 135.7 4.0 8.0 -30.7 -64.2 5.1 Completed plant at June 30 1,809.6 1,924.8 2,133.9 3,149.5 4,090.3 5,858.3 6,466.0 6,596.7 Percent increase 6.4 10.9 47.6 29.9 43.2 10.3 2.0 1 Includes depreciation. Source: 1956 Financial Report, U. S. Atomic Energy Commission, October 1956. 1957 d 'tfa from Division of Finance, O ’t. 2 , 1957. 724 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY T a b l e 8.— AEG investment in plant and equipment, June 80, 1957, preliminary [In millions] Completed plant Production facilities: Production reactors and separation areas.. . Research facilities: Communities............................ ......................... Construction in progress Total Percent of total $7.1 233.9 2,318. 2 1,560.7 709.8 262.7 340.9 $0.4 21.9 8.4 68.0 39.1 1.3 13.9 $7.4 255.8 2,326.7 1,628.8 748.9 264.0 354.8 0.1 3.7 33.7 23.6 10.8 3.8 5.2 5,433.3 153.0 5,586.3 80.9 541.4 84.1 60.2 66.1 24.3 94.8 13.4 11.9 565.6 178.9 73.6 78.0 8.2 2.6 1.1 1.1 751.8 144.3 896.1 13.0 267.3 144.3 4.1 9.9 271.4 154.2 3.9 2.2 6, 596.7 311.2 6,907.9 100.0 N o t e .—Detail may not add to total due to rounding. Source: Division of Finance, U. S. Atomic Energy Commission, Oct. 2,1957. Current rates of operating expenditures and plant construction for research and development on nuclear reactors for m ilitary and civilian purposes are shown, insofar as they have been segregated by the Atomic Energy Commission, in tables 9 to 13. The key facts indi cated by the A EC ’s figures are these: Thus far, roughly $450 million of development and construc tion expenditures have been dedicated to civilian reactors. By rough comparison, about $900 million of development and construction expenditures have been devoted to m ilitary reactor development (excluding construction of the materials production reactors at H anford and Savannah R ivers). Expenditures for military, civilian, and undesignated reactor research are expanding rapidly. For each of these categories, annual development expenses are now (fiscal year 1958) more than double those 2 years ago. Government commitments to support “cooperative arrange ments” with groups outside the AEC are just beginning to be substantial, but no expenditures for construction are expected until fiscal year 1959. In brief, these development expenditures for civilian purposes are on the order of many millions annually—$150 million is a guessti mate—and they are rising rapidly. They are large, too, when com pared with expenditures rates for m ilitary reactors. Im portant tech nical, economic, and national policy objectives can be set forth to justify such large and growing expenditure programs; they also raise the question of still further expansion in public expenditures. Technically, reactor developments of the last few years have re vealed the need for an extensive program along several promising lines, including not only a wide variety of technically feasible designs for central station powerplants, but also reactor designs for ship pro ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 725 ulsion, for remote use, and for radiation processing. The United kingdom has found it best to concentrate on two lines of powerS reactor design, one being practical immediately and the other holding promise for the longer term. The United States, however, has not had to decide on 1 or 2 courses of development and has proceeded on many fronts, at least at the experimental level. Furthermore, the scientists and engineers in AEC and industry have found the task of bridging the cost gap between technical feasi bility and competitive usefulness to be more difficult and time-con suming than it apeared in 1953 and 1954. Also, the volume of private investment in reactor development and construction, while significant and growing, has proved to be less than presuppose'd by passage of the Atomic Energy Act in 1954 permitting wider private partici pation in atomic energy development. Finally, on the political front, each year since the President’s far sighted U. N. atoms-for-peace address in 1953, the international situ ation has become a progessively more impelling reason for wider international cooperation in nuclear energy. The wide declassifica tion of United States information on reactor technology, the scientific conference at Geneva (1955) , the numerous bilateral agreements, the startling success and expansion of the British reactor program, the formation of Euratom with United States encouragement, and the Suez crisis—all of these events underscore the desirability of a reactor development program that fully supports the Nation’s foreign policy objectives, as well as the purely domestic. The roots o f national 'policy for power reactor development Practical manifestation of the need for civilian applications of nuclear energy preceded the formation of the Atomic Energy Com mission, pursuant to the Atomic Energy Act of 1946. The Man hattan Engineer D istrict (M ED), recognizing the promise of the atom for productive purposes, began before the end of the war a number of exploratory power reactor projects, particularly at Oak Ridge. The institution of three national laboratories, a product of the MED, was a most constructive step taken at this time, laying the ground for wide development of nuclear energy under Commission auspices. Considerably later, the AEC in 1949 established the Reactor Devel opment Division which led to the “industry participation program” and, later, to the declaration of Commission power reactor policy, June 24, 1953. The Commission’s declaration, in brief, held “* * * the attainment of economically competitive nuclear power to be a goal of national importance * * recognized the responsibility of the Commission to continue reasearch and development, and to promote the construction of experimental reactors which contribute to technology and to design of economic units; and, among other things, expressed the conviction that progress toward economic nu clear power could be further advanced through participation in the development program by “groups outside the Commission.” The act of 1954 gave body to virtually all the Commission’s proposals for providing reasonable incentives for encouraging wider participation. The President’s atoms-for-peace address, December 8, 1953, set forth the policy objectives that now underlie the provisions of the 1954 act providing carefully circumscribed authority and conditions for 726 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY perm itting wider international cooperation in certain atomic energy matters. These developments are the prim ary policy bases for nuclear energy development programs, and from them stem the criteria for evaluating the character of the expenditure programs in this field. Suggested criteria The six criteria listed here are illustrative of the relevant ques tions and the brief comment on each is intended to evoke discussion and provide background rather than to represent a sufficient answer. The prim ary standard to be suggested is th is : Is the 'program, ade quately supporting , without the waste of resources or jeopardy to national defense and security, the Nation's major policy objectives, first, to achieve, without delay , economic nuclear energy applications through the efforts o f both Government and private enterprise; and, second, to permit the achievement o f foreign policy objectives that necessitate growing international cooperation? Differences in personal value judgments about these questions ex plain much of the controversy concerning the desirable rate and scale of atomic energy programs. Yet recent debate has suggested th at a narrowing of extreme points of view may be occurring. Acceleration of reactor development has been generally accepted by the legislative and executive branches. Moreover, it is accepted that, although do mestic needs for a new source of power are not pressing, the needs of Western Europe, Japan, and other free nations are urgent. (See table 1.) There is no question that it is in the United States policy interest to participate in fulfilling these needs. Finally, it is ac cepted th at nuclear energy development calls for the technical and financial resources of both the Government and industry, but with the Government taking the lead in experimenting with new approaches to reactor design. Not yet resolved is the detailed manner in which the Nation goes about the problem of reconciling its domestic and foreign programs for nuclear energy. The domestic development program is motivated prim arily by the goal of achieving economically competitive nuclear power through reliance on the efforts of nongovernmental groups, supported by strong Government assistance. On the other hand, the more urgent foreign program, motivated prim arily by interna tional necessities, presupposes the early availability of economically useful nuclear power. While the premises of the two programs seem to be in conflict, it is possible with the ample resources we possess to contemplate a nuclear power development th at is aimed at accom plishing the purposes of both policies. The key issue then is how to rectify the present disparity between the domestic and foreign pro grams of the United States. Is the domestic development program to be further accelerated— beyond that warranted by considerations of private motivation and re source needs—or should the scope and pace of the foreign program be cut back to the level of technical realities at home ? I t would be fru it ful to explore both sides of this question at some length, but circum stance and judgment suggest that the second alternative is politically difficult, if not impossible. Our foreign policy and the atoms-forpeace program have led us to 10 bilateral power agreements, the for mation of the International Atomic Energy Agency, full support of ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 727 Euratorn, and the offer of quantities of nuclear fuels. The prospects for augmenting the scope and depth of the effort to achieve econom ically useful nuclear power may be revealed in the course of examining a few other standards for evaluating the domestic developmental pro gram. Is there a marked disparity in the pace of reactor development as be tween military and civilian applications? Is the civilian program interfering with the military reactor development effort? The fact of 2 nuclear-propelled submarines in operation, 14 more vessels now being built, and several more planned, is sufficient evidence that avail able resources are being found adequate to support a large military reactor program without major diversions to civilian development projects. Civilian reactors, benefiting to a degree by transference of the military reactor technology, have not moved nearly so rapidly to full-scale construction. Only one full-scale, Government-owned power reactor is now approaching completion, and this is a direct off shoot of a design developed for naval ship propulsion. The evidence suggests a gap between the two programs at the construction level Moreover, the technology of military reactors is not necessarily in the best direction for civilian development; virtually all of the military reactors being built or planned are of the pressurized water design using enriched uranium as fuel. The basic reactor design found suit able for ship propulsion holds no certainty of producing economically competitive central station nuclear power. Several other avenues need and have been receiving investigation. Is technical progress toward economic use of reactors being sus tained and are technical breakthroughs being fully exploited? There has been until recently an obvious preoccupation in the development and construction program with designs that employ natural water and enriched uranium—to the apparent subordination of several other de signs, such as the natural uranium heavy-water reactor, the gascooled natural uranium reactor, and reactors using plutonium as fuel, among others. The number of technically feasible reactors is great and the capacity of the United States program to explore several simul taneously is a marked advantage (but fertile source of confusion). Thus, the. Government experimental program now covers not only pressurized and boiling-water reactors, but also such reactors as the sodium-graphite, homogeneous, fast breeder, organic-moderated, and liquid-metal fuel. I t is at the small, experimental reactor level— rather than at full-scale construction—that the Government has achieved generally recognized success in accomplishing major steps in reactor technology. Indeed, a leading reactor specialist (Zinn) has indicated th a t the design concept of every power reactor was first de veloped in connection with the AEC program for the construction of small experimental power reactors. W ith the exception of the homogeneous reactor concept, each of the five designs in the Commission’s 5-year reactor program (1953) has successfully passed through the small-scale, experimental stage and is substantially ready for full-scale demonstration. In general, ma jor technical advances—such as the boiling-water concept—have been specifically confirmed by experimental reactors of small size, but such advances have not yet been tested for their economic promise at full scale. This experience must be secured soon. 728 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY Is the development program being managed in a manner that assures the efficient and reasonably full use of both government and industry resources of technical and scientific talent? This standard presup poses the national importance of reactor development and not the dubious desirability of keeping scientists and technicians busy just for the fun of it. Evidence suggests that the present programs of development and construction are on a smaller scale than the technical resources of industry and government would permit. Reactor engineering and construction capabilities, for example, are now very great, in p art because the Commission’s expansion of pro duction reactors is long since passed. Moreover, there is still only a handful of large contractors carrying major responsibility for develop ment and construction of reactors. Smaller companies and new en trants in the field have repeatedly stated that resources are available to permit a greater distribution of reactor development.9 And it is still true that major segments of industry, that were former Iy in the atomic energy program, have shown no disposition to return by participation in civilian development programs. Also, the national laboratories, all heavily engaged in government and industry pro grams, have contributed a stream of trained people to all parts of industry. (However, it may be fruitless to speak of potential indus try resources th at are available if the motivation for productive, profitable participation by nongovernment groups continues to appear remote.) Are the tone and character of the development program such that the ever-present private versus public power controversy is not exacer bated and indeed not raised to a pitch that could stall the develop ment program through failure to find mutually acceptable solutions to common problems? This problem is so thorny that there has been a self-protecting disposition in most statements discussing national policy for nuclear power to sweep the issue under the rug. One need be neither a fool nor an angel to attempt commenting constructively on this contentious matter as it relates to the expenditure program. , , 8 In response to an AEC in vitation for proposals for engineering design o f a 40,000kilow att nuclear-power reactor, 31 architect-engineer firms subm itted proposals (AEC Kelease 1183, October 1, 195 7 ). ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 729 Commonsensc indicates that both the private and public sectors of the electric utility industry accept the desirability of joint govern ment and industry efforts m developing economically competitive nuclear-power reactors useful in both types of systems. Also, each sector is opposed to having the developmental program become exclu sively the province of the other. While granting the important po tential contribution of the private utilities to reactor development, the public sector expects the program to be administered in a manner that permits its participation with adequate recognition of the differ ing financial capacity and needs of publicly owned systems. Simi larly, the private utilities expect the development program to be administered in a way that provides necessary government assistance yet avoids arrangements that might extend the scope of federally owned utility systems or that might compromise the mandate of the act that the Commission is prohibited from generating electric power for commercial purposes (sec. 44). These points of view are compatible—though the underlying fears that spokesmen of each sector have expressed concerning the aggres sive ambitions of the other are not. While recognizing the views of the Executive branch on national power policy, one must also note that there is no clear evidence that administration of the civilian reactor program has favored one sector at the expense of the other. (See table 10 for the direct assistance being given private utilities and public, municipal, and cooperative systems.) Considering the high degree of government intervention required by reactor develop ment and operation under the act, it would be an administrative ac complishment of surpassing skill if no conflicting claims of favoritism were expressed. There is a continuing possibility, however, that this controversy could delay or prevent adoption of measures designed to encourage reactor development. I t is probable, for example, that private indus try will seek progressively greater degrees of government assistance in the construction and operation of full-scale power reactors and will continue to oppose steps moving toward Federal construction and op eration beyond experimental sizes. A t the same time, supporters of publicly owned systems will be impelled to question the desirability of greater government assistance to private reactor operation and may continue to urge outright Federal construction. However these ex tremes may finally be compromised or resolved, the impact will ap pear, in greater or lesser degree, in the reactor expenditure programs for development and construction. T a b l e 9 .— O perating expenses and plant construction costs fo r reactor development, through fiscal year 1968 [In millions] Civilian power reactors MerchantAEC direct Cooperative program arrangements ship reactors program (a) Operating expenses: Fiscal year 1958 (estimated)__________________ —----(ft) Plant construction costs: Fiscal year 1958 (estimated)______________ _________ i Perhaps more than of this sum is assignable to civilian projects. Source: Division of Finance, AEC, Oct. 2,1957. 0 Total Military reactors Controlled thermo nuclear power Total General research and development program development a 62.0 42.3 51.8 82.9 2.0 13.9 .1 .7 3.3 65.9 42.4 54.4 100.1 237.6 91.3 154.2 180.6 11.0 21.7 146.5 30.8 44.9 51.9 457.4 171.2 264.7 354.3 239.0 19.8 4.1 262.9 663.7 46.7 274.1 1,247.6 7.1 8.7 36.6 27.5 .3 .1 .7 0 0 0 .3 5.0 7.4 8.8 37.6 32.5 131.4 11.7 31.0 50.7 .7 .6 .3 2.6 181.2 12.6 19.1 34.6 320.7 33.7 88.0 120.4 79.9 1.1 5.3 86.3 224.8 4.2 247.5 562.8 3.9 0 7.4 6.6 § a a to 0 1 > w E* t—i ►3 . T a b l e 10 — Reactor projects jo in tly financed and supported by A E C and outside groups— The “ Cooperative Arrangem ents Program ” fiscal year 1958 budget [In millions of dollars] Electrie capacity (kilowatt) Utility . __ Research and develop ment Construc tion * Total cost Total 134,000 $5.0 $3.0 0 $8.0 $55.0 $55.0 $63.0 4.5 26.2 3.7 1.3 0 24.0 8.2 51.5 9.0 0 45.2 16.6 54.2 16.6 62.4 68.0 22,000 10,000 12,500 10,000 5 2.8 1.6 7 3.5 « 9.9 .1 0 .6 .6 5.7 3.8 4.0 6.7 8.6 5.5 8.1 17.2 1.0 0 0 2.5 .8 4.0 1.9 3.5 .8 4.0 1.9 •12.0 6.2 12.0 19.1 136,000 66,000 0.3 6.0 « 7.5 1.0 0 0 16.8 7.0 0 40.2 21.6 40.2 21.6 57.0 28.6 565,500 68.8 17.8 44.2 130.9 10.0 187.8 197.8 328.3 <*) (fl> (4) 7 Excludes $3,600,000 of postconstruction operating expenses, s Excludes postconstruction operating expenses (maximum) of $2,500,000. ®$25,000 contributed by Nuclear Development Corp. Includes $5,000,000 waiver of heavy water use charges. Source: Atomic Energy Appropriations for 1958, hearings before the Subcommittee on Appropriations, House; 85th Cong., 1st sess., pp. 223-232; and S. Rept. 791. Authorizing Appropriations for the Atomic Energy Commission, Aug. 2, 1957, pp. 9-14. STABILITY * Privately-owned. Others are publicly owned. * Included in construction estimate. * Excludes a maximum of $1,640,000 to cover postconstruction costs for operating ex penses in excess of conventional costs. * AMF Atomics, the reactor manufacturer, in September 1957 withdrew its cost esti mates for this plant. New higher estimates are being prepared. 731 Total value 100,000 75,000 1 In some instances includes pcstconstruction research and development. 2 Including turbogenerator. Construc tion AND . _ _ ___ ___ * _ Waiver of fuel-use charges GROWTH Total. __ Research and develop ment 1 Contractors’ participation ECONOMIC 1st round: Yankee (Massachusetts) *................. ........... Power Reactor Development Co. (Michi gan) a....... ............. ........ ................................ Consumers (Nebraska).......... ......................... 2d round: Rural Cooperative (Minnesota)..................... Wolverine (Michigan)................................... Piqua (Ohio)..................................... ............. Chugach (Alaska)................. -.......................... 3d round: Florida group 3___ ______ _ ________ Northern States (Minnesota) 3_ ................... AEC assistance 732 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY The last suggested standard, intimated by the preceding discussion, is this: In seeking wide, industrial 'participation as contemplated by the act, are the forms and degrees of government assistance reasonable and clearly visible, and will they best serve the goal of achieving economically competitive nuclear power? The extent of nongovern mental reactor development and construction, while increasing, has still not become large. One private, small experimental power reactor thus far has been constructed, and two full-scale plants are in process of construction th at do not depend on substantial degrees of govern ment assistance. A number of other nongovernmental plants are planned, each involving such direct government aids as preconstruction research and development, and waiver of fuel use charges, aside from such indirect benefits as government indemnification for reactor haz ards, guaranteed fuel reprocessing charges and long-term fixed prices for byproduct plutonium. Present government assistance, direct and indirect, is varied, subject to change and not easily identified. Yet there are still other aids that could be brought to bear, such as pricing plutonium at its weapon value, granting nuclear fuel without any use charges, pricing U-235 at out-of-pocket expense rather than full cost of production (includ ing plant depreciation), and many others. Present and potential devices for assistance are so numerous and intricate th at there is grave danger of the expenditure programs failing to consider both real and dollar costs pertaining to them. Also, there is a risk th at additional assistance, designed mainly for the immediate purpose of accelerating technical development and gaining experience in full-scale plant oper ation, could become a permanent crutch in commercial operations, not only of generating stations, but also of supporting facilities. Achiev ing economically competitive nuclear power could become a simple, but meaningless bookkeeping task. Unfortunately, there is no practical way to judge when the cost of additional government assistance exceeds the additional contribu tion to technical development. But the variety of devices already being used, within the limits of the “no subsidy” provision in the act (sec. 169) is itself a warning. The only alternative to more and more government assistance, in order to promote technical development and private full-scale plants, is not necessarily the obvious one of Federal construction and invest ment. Though the desirability of doing so m ight be open to sharp differences of opinion, the expenditure program could continue to follow its present p attern : Industry being expected to construct fullscale demonstration reactors, and AEC taking responsibility for development and construction of experimental reactors—and such others as the Congress itself may specify in authorizing appropriations for projects and programs. The cost of constructing full-scale power reactors is large—on the order of $50 million to $75 million each. A national policy therefore th at shifts the cost of constructing or operat ing demonstration plants to the Federal Government could have a large impact on the reactor expenditure program. Yet the expenditure rate could be doubled before approaching the present scale of the m ilitary reactor program. I f one accepts the desirability of accelerating construction of fullscale units in order to demonstrate the costs and reliability of nuclear ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 733 then progress toward competitive reactors could be advanced Eower, y (a) increasing degrees of government assistance, (b) by outright subsidies, ( c ) by government construction, or (d ) possibly by a mix ture of these. I f the premise of full-scale construction is not accepted, then extraordinary construction measures are not necessary and the present program may be relied on, perhaps at the cost of some delay, to provide the answers being sought. But there are differences among the technical experts as to the necessity of full-scale construction. Some stress the need for prior nuclear fuel experimentation and subordinate the role of plant problems; but most insist that full-scale plants for most designs are necessary, not only for proving out the fuel cycle, but also providing the operating and plant experience that different reactor designs require. The fact that full-scale reactor construction requires between 4 and 5 years, including engineering design, and that construction of several reactor designs has not yet begun, means the construction phase that the civilian reactor program has only recently entered may be long indeed. The serious delays and obstacles the reactor development program has experienced may be measured by the low rate of construc tion costs currently being incurred. (See table 9.) In fiscal year 1958 the plant costs of the direct government program are actually less than in fiscal year 1957. More striking still, the reported con struction costs of the “cooperative arrangements” program are nil in the current year, no construction being expected until fiscal year 1959. This extremely limited construction effort, is partly offset by the current construction of a few privately owned plants and by the Government-owned plant at Shippingport, Pa. But it suggests that the development program may be lagging behind the scale of effort required to support the prompt achievement of major national policies set forth 3 and 4 years ago. One danger is that the present program may fail to cpmplete the construction phase in time to be of maximum use in assuring the Nation’s full participation in international de velopments and in meeting the needs of other countries. I t seems likely that international developments not discernible now, as well as the foreseeable needs of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Euratom, and the bilateral agreements will place heavy demands on the Nation’s ability to deliver, in the form of guaranteed reactor de signs and performance. Establishment of Euratom in particular opens the immediate and promising possibility of joint arrangements between the United States and the six nations in the construction of full-scale demonstra tion reactors in Europe. Were joint arrangements to be successfully worked out, the two-way benefits could be substantial. Euratom, a major step toward Western Europe’s integration, would be able to make the first step toward the 15 million kilowatt target for 1967.10 The United States on its p art would secure the indispensable experi ence and knowledge of constructing and operating full-scale pilot units. “ A T arget F or Euratom , May 1957 10 A T arget for E uration, May 1957. 734 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY T a b l e 11.— Civilian power reactor construction costs, fiscal year 1958 "budget [Costs in millions] Total esti Through fiscal year mated cost 1955 Pressurized water reactor................................ Fast power breeder.......................................... Argonne boiling reactor................................... Liquid metal fuel reactor .......................... Sodium reactor experiment ........................ Consumers Public Power District................. Rural Coop Power Association...................... Wolverine Electric Coop Association. . City of Piqua, Ohio....................................... Chugach Electric Association........................ Plutonium Fabrication Laboratory, Han ford............................................................... Zero power reactor, ANL............. . Power reactor test building and hot cells, LASL___________ __________________ Hot cells and waste storage system, Santa 1* Susana, Calif................................................. Fuel Technology Center, ANL...................... Plutonium fabrication facility, ANL............ Engineering test equipment for HRP, ORNL________________________ _____ Plutonium recycle reactor, Hanford............ Total_______ _ ____ Fiscal year 1957 Fiscal year 1958 After $1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $7.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $35.7 .3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $6.0 5.0 2.5 1.5 .3 .4 1.5 .3 .5 0 0 $23.8 6.0 16.1 4.4 23.6 4.2 3.5 3.5 6.7 4.0 2.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 .5 1.8 3.6 .9 2.6 $50.0 29.1 8.5 17.5 4.7 24.0 5.7 3.8 4.0 6.7 ______ _ . Fiscal year 1956 0 0 0 .8 1.8 2.2 10.0 3.0 0 0 .2 0 0 1.1 0 0 .5 .5 2.0 1.2 1.7 8.0 0 .8 15.0 .1 0 .1 0 .2 0 .4 5.0 0 10.0 194.4 1.6 8.2 36.8 30.0 117.8 N o t e .— Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Division of Finance, AEC, Oct. 2,1957. T a b l e 12.— Plant construction costs for selected AEC programs, fiscal year 1958 budget [Costs in millions] Through Fiscal year Fiscal year Fiscal year fiscal year 1956 1957 1958 1955 $29.5 116. 2 0 0 $0.7 9.1 0 0 $3.4 12.5 0 0 $5.3 28.9 0 .4 1. 2 .8 1.0 4.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .3 7.0 .6 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .1 35.7 .4 0 .5 0 0 0 0 0 0 .7 6.1 4.0 .3 10.8 1.2 1.5 .5 3.1 0 0 0 _ ________ 7.4 8.8 37.3 27.5 Civil atomic propulsion.................................................... Thermonuclear power....................................................... 0 .7 131.4 0 .6 11.7 0 .3 31.0 5.0 2.6 50.7 181.2 12.6 19.1 34.6 Atomic power, by reactor concept: Total............. _ ... _ ___ General research and developing, supporting opera- Source: Division of Finance, AEC, Oct. 2,19 7. 735 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY T a b l e 13. — Operating expenses for selected AEG programs, fiscal year 1958 budget [Costs in millions] Through fiscal year 1955 Biology and medicine...................................................................... Physical research.............................................................................. Production of radioisotopes............................................................. Food irradiation.......................................................................... . Atomic power—by reactor concept: Pressurized water...................................................................... Boiling water........ ............................................................... Homogeneous............................................................................. Fast power breeder..................................... ............................. Sodium graphite........................................................................ Liquid metal fuel-............................................................ ........ Organic moderated............................................................... . Plutonium recycle..................................................................... Pressurized heavy water..................... .................. _ ........... Advanced design...................................................................... Cooperative arrangements program........................................ Total _ . . . . . ____________ _______________ Thermonuclear power...................................................................... Military and classified projects....................................................... General research and developing, supporting operations, equip ment, etc........................................................................................ Source: Division of Finance, AEC, Oct. 2, 1957. Fiscal year 1956 Fiscal year 1957 Fiscal year 1958 172.1 274.0 7.4 0 28.4 49.5 1.7 0 31.6 60.7 2.3 .1 36.0 71.0 2.4 .1 17.2 9.0 21.3 9.1 5.4 0 0 0 0 0 3.9 15.2 4.7 10.7 4.7 5.0 1.6 .3 0 0 .1 0 14.6 5.0 10.7 6.1 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.0 .5 .4 2.0 21.0 5.0 11.8 13.6 7.9 8.0 5.5 4.0 4.0 2.0 13.9 65.9 42.3 53.8 96.8 7.4 237.6 .1 6.6 91.3 ,7 11.0 154.2 3.3 21.7 180.6 146.5 30.8 44.9 51.9
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