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ARM AND Q anch Q u lletin Vol. 17, No. 10 October 15, 1962 FUTURE D EM AN D FOR LA N D The future demand for land was recently discussed by Harry A. Steele and Norman E. Landgren of the United States Department of Agriculture. As a basis for their discussion, the economists used projections which were pre pared for a recent USDA report on land and water resources. The report projected require ments for all land uses, including nonagricultural purposes, from 1959 to 1980. represents an increase of about 57 percent in disposable personal income per capita. Despite this substantial gain in per capita personal income, the consumption of all farm products per person is expected to increase only 2 percent by 1980 as compared with 1959. Per capita food consumption is estimated to rise 4 percent, but per capita consumption of non food agricultural products may decrease 19 According to Messrs. Steele and Landgren, percent. These projected consumption estimates the principal factors that will affect the future reflect anticipated upgrading of diets, which demand for products of land are: (1) the rate normally accompanies increased consumer in of population growth, (2) the level of economic come. The estimates also take into account an activity, (3) consumer expenditure patterns, and expected continued increase in the use of such (4) the composition and level of exports and products as synthetic fibers and detergents, imports. Moreover, the availability and adop although the rate of gain may be smaller than tion of technology, as reflected through yields during the past decade. and feeding efficiencies, will affect the future The 1980 export goal for farm products is requirements for land. set at 30 to 35 percent above 1960 exports. This goal would include exports of 750 million to The rate of population growth is the most 800 million bushels of wheat, 7.5 million to 8.0 important factor affecting future demand for million bales of cotton, and 15 million to 17 the products of land. The population of the million tons of feed grains. United States in 1980 is projected at 261 mil The total national cropland required in 1980 lion, representing a 48-percent increase over to meet projected demands is estimated at 407 the 1959 figure. This projection is in accord million acres, or 11 percent below the 1959 ance with recent trends in population growth. acreage. If projected cropland needs are com Demand for the products of land also will be pared with 1961 (when the feed grain and Con affected by consumer income, which is influ servation Reserve programs were in effect), the enced by the level of economic activity in the downward adjustment in cropland requirements Nation. Measured in constant dollars so that is smaller than when compared with 1959. The the increases represent real gains, total dispos 1961 cropland diversion programs reduced the able personal income in 1980 is expected to be amount of cropland harvested to within 6 mil 132 percent above that in 1959. This figure lion acres of projected requirements for 1980. FEDERAL RESERVE DALLAS, BANK TEXAS OF DALLAS An additional 22 million acres of pastureland are expected to be needed by 1980 because of an increase in demand for livestock products. This increased pastureland probably would come from shifting cropland into pastureland uses. Projections of acreage devoted to forests between 1959 and 1980 show little change, although the timber needs are expected to in crease by 44 percent. The greatest increase in requirements for land in the United States during the next two decades is expected to come from nonagricultural uses, according to Messrs. Steele and Landgren. Requirements by 1980 for special-purpose uses — such as urbanization, recreation or wildlife, and public installations and facilities — are projected at 196 million acres, or one-third above the 1959 figure. Miscellaneous other lands — which include desert, bare rock, swamp, and similar types of land — will supply part of the requirements for urban and other nonagricultural uses. Relaxed Chickens More Profitable Many complex methods have been devised for in creasing egg and meat pro duction in poultry flocks, but a new and unusual one is recommended by Joe Wakefield of the Poultry Science Departm ent at Texas A. & M. College. He says that reduction of tension in the flock will result in more effi cient production of the birds. Chickens are governed by a type of psychol ogy similar to that of the human race, and a peck order (pattern of social habits of the birds) determines the behavior of the entire flock. Some chickens are leaders and others are fol lowers, and a bird is in for a fight if it violates its place in the order. The peck order influences the feed consumption, sexual behavior, and eventually the flock’s production efficiency, says the poultry specialist. Chickens habitually peck their inferiors and avoid their superiors, but in a large flock, they may get the two mixed. Since it could increase tensions if a social superior were attacked, chickens should not have to travel into strange areas of the pen to water, feed, nest, or roost. When birds do not have to travel more than 10 to 15 feet, there is less danger of encounter ing social superiors; thus, tension and stress in the flock are reduced. The pen can be divided into many regional peck orders, and the birds will not have to leave their own small region, says Mr. Wakefield. Tension in the flock also can be decreased by avoiding the introduction of new birds into established flocks and by not mixing birds of different ages. The establishment of normal so cial patterns among chickens can reduce ten sion, and flocks will settle down to efficient production, points out the poultry specialist. Screwworm Eradication Program Officials of the screwworm eradication pro gram are hopeful that the recent absence of screwworm cases in certain counties within the sterile fly release area reflects the effectiveness of the program, according to the Texas Agricul tural Extension Service. In early July, all coun ties within the sterile fly release area (which includes more than 60 counties in southern Texas) reported screwworm cases. The number of counties in the release area reporting no screwworms had increased to over 20 counties at the beginning of September. The officials are hesitant to give complete credit to the fly release, since there normally are fewer screwworm cases during the JulyAugust period of hot weather. However, they are watching the situation very closely to see if it does represent a definite trend. The eradication program entails the produc tion and sterilization of screwworm flies at a plant near Mission, Texas, and their release over infested areas. The mating of sterile male flies with fertile females results in infertile eggs. Sterile flies are being dispersed from airplanes in the sterile fly release area at rates of 800 to 1,200 flies per square mile. Officials hope to eradicate the screwworm within this southern area while depending upon winter weather to kill the pests in northern regions. A 100-mile wide barrier zone will be established on the Mexico-United States border, where sterile flies will be air-dropped to prevent the northward migration of fertile flies into the United States. Improving Pasture Regrowth impractical, as the available forage is not efficiently utilized. Extra Profit Possibilities for Dairymen Recent United States D epart Improved shoots of a single orchard grass ment of Agriculture figures show plant which are cut back by grazing can “bor that purebred, registered dairy row” from ungrazed parts of the plant to speed cows have greater profit-making regrowth, according to United States Depart potential than do grade cows, ment of Agriculture scientists. This finding can points out A. M. Meekma, Dairy help improve grazing management in areas ^ r— Specialist with the Texas Agri where orchard grass and Ladino clovers are cultural Extension Service. The the foundation of many pastures. The new data refute claims that there is little or no differ knowledge about orchard grass regrowth en ence between the production of grade cows and ables livestock producers to adjust stocking that of registered cows of the five major breeds. rates and to determine grazing rotations more The USDA report — which is based on more accurately than was formerly possible. than 600,000 Dairy Herd Improvement Asso In experiments conducted during 1959-61, ciation records — shows that, in milk sales the USDA scientists found that individual alone, the output of the average registered cow orchard grass shoots which have been cut back brought $35 more than that of the average grade through grazing accomplish regrowth partly by cow during a 305-day testing period. For a drawing upon nutrients from ungrazed portions fairly typical 30-cow farm, this would amount of the plant. The quantity of nutrients available to more than $1,000 extra gross income per to draw upon depends upon the proportion of year. Mr. Meekma says that this extra income the plant that is left after grazing. is a substantial dividend for registering from 10 Orchard grass is a bunch species — a tufted to 12 heifer calves each year. The production plant that frequently has around 100 individual differences between registered and grade half shoots supported by its root system. The fact sisters of various dairy breeds range from 238 that grazed shoots regrow more quickly when a pounds to 1,088 pounds of milk. substantial number of the remaining shoots are The registered cows outproduced the grade left ungrazed implies an important crossflow of cows in each year of the study. Moreover, a metabolic products within the plant. much higher percentage of registered animals This crossflow is of significance to the live were production tested. The dairy specialist stock producer because pasture yield will be points out, however, that exceptions can be improved if cows are rotated so that grazing found and that the mere possession of a registry occurs as quickly as possible. This can be ac certificate does not insure the dairyman extra complished best by first stocking the pasture to dollars’ worth of production. capacity and then removing the animals before regrowth begins. Predicting Leanness in Swine f Usually, not all parts of each plant are cropped close to the ground, since animals nor mally graze unevenly. Consequently, enough shoots are left on grazed plants to assist in regrowth. The USDA scientists say that serious overgrazing will occur if early regrowth is cropped repeatedly. Undergrazing, of course, allows plants to reestablish themselves quickly but is In a recent study by the Oklahoma Agricul tural Experiment Station, carcasses of 42 barrows of similar weight and breeding were cut and measured in order to determine the best measures for predicting lean in the carcass. Results of the study indicate that the best pre dictor of lean in the carcass is the weight of lean and fat in the ham. The areas of lean and fat determined from tracings of the cross sec- tion of the entire carcass at the third lumbar vertebra are the second best predictor. individual cows and calves, thereby enabling their owners to make more efficient selections. Other measures of leanness in swine include weight of lean of the ham, specific gravity of the ham, and combination measures of loin eye area, carcass back fat, and specific gravity of the ham, as well as loin eye area and backfat thickness. Indications are that carcass length is of little value in predicting leanness. Production records on approximately 20,000 cows and postweaning records on about 2,000 bulls are being kept in the Oklahoma studies. These records include such important economic traits as weaning weights, quality grades, and postweaning rates of gain on standard feeding tests. The information provided will enable cattlemen to select and retain the best individ uals, which will promote permanent improve ment in the hereditary capacity of their herds for these traits, according to the experiment station. Artificial Drying of Peanuts Curing peanuts by artificial means in order to prevent quality damage requires careful pro cedures on the part of the dryer operator, says W. S. Allen, Agricultural Engineer with the Texas Agricultural Extension Service. He points out that the proper use of heat is one of the most important factors in the drying procedure. If the peanuts are cured too rapidly, their milling quality will be reduced; and if they are exposed to excessively high temperatures, off-flavor may occur. Research engineers recommend that the air entering the peanut drying bin not exceed a temperature of 95° Fahrenheit, with the rela tive humidity not less than 55 percent. In order to avoid overdrying, only enough heat should be added to the curing air to reduce the relative humidity to a minimum of 55 percent, accord ing to Mr. Allen. New Device for Measuring Irrigation W a te r A 90-degree c a st-iro n pipe elbow is the principal component of an experi mental water meter being developed by the United States D epartm ent of Agriculture. The device, which is called an elbow flow meter, is expected to fulfill farmers’ needs for a low-cost, accurate irrigation water measuring instrument. Not more than one-third of western irrigation wells have metering equipment. The fan should be started as soon as the air distribution system is uniformly covered with peanuts. The air should be moved up through the peanuts until the moisture content of the kernels in the top layer (6 inches) of peanuts is reduced to a level of 10 to 12 percent. Farmers can deliver the desired amount of water to an irrigated field if they know how much water the pipe delivers and the length of time the water is applied. As irrigation water becomes scarcer and more expensive, farmers are increasingly concerned about efficient water use. After the moisture is reduced to this level, the heat should be turned off, but the fan should continue to run until all the peanuts are cool. The elbow flow meter has three advantages over standard water measuring devices. Computers Aid in Beef C attle Selection Electronic computers are playing an impor tant role in the improvement of beef cattle herds in Oklahoma as a result of recent studies by the State Agricultural Experiment Station. A pro gram using electronic computers has been set up for maintaining and processing records on 1. It is less expensive. 2. It is an adaptation of a 90-degree elbow already in a water distribution line, or one that can be installed easily. 3. It causes less reduction in water pressure, or head, in the line; consequently, less energy is required for pumping water through it.
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