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ARM AND Q anch F I ULLETIN Vol. 17, No. 1 January 15, 1962 A G R IC U LTU R A L O U T L O O K FOR 1962 Prospects for an expanding domestic market and record farm exports dominate the Nation’s agricultural outlook picture for 1962, reports the United States Department of Agriculture. The income gains registered for 1961 probably will be maintained in 1962, with little over-all change expected in the realized net income of farm operators, total volume of farm market ings, or average prices received by farmers. These expectations assume average growing conditions, expansion in general economic ac tivity, and the continuation of existing farm pro grams and price supports. With average growing conditions and effec tive feed grain and wheat programs, production and marketings of crops may be smaller in 1962. However, the decrease likely will be about offset by a continued upward trend in livestock output, particularly of hogs, cattle, and dairy products. Expenditures for farm-produced foods in 1961 were approximately 3 percent above the preceding year and probably will show some further increase in 1962 as a result of antici pated gains in consumer incomes. Indications are that export outlets will con tinue to be large. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 1962, the value of agricultural exports is expected to total about $5 billion, or slightly above the 1960-61 record. Factors contributing to the favorable export outlook include strong economic activity in Western Europe and Ja pan, record gold and dollar holdings in many countries which trade with the United States, and the accelerated Food for Peace Program. FEDERAL RESERVE DALLAS, Compared with 1961, crop prices in the Na tion may average slightly higher this year, re flecting the new support level of $2 per bushel for the 1962 wheat crop and the continuing influence of higher supports for many of the 1961 crops. Larger marketings of livestock and livestock products are expected to exert some downward pressure on prices, but the antici pated rise in consumer incomes and the contin ued high support levels for dairy products are likely to keep the average of these prices close to the 1961 level. Production expenses reached an all-time high of nearly $27 billion in 1961, or about $500 million more than in the preceding year. The Department of Agriculture expects some further increase in these expenses in 1962, but prob ably less than the gain last year. The credit and financial situation of farmers generally improved in 1961 over a large part of the United States. Underlying the improvement were increases in farm income and a resumption of the upward trend in farm real-estate values, which came to a temporary halt in 1960. This improvement is expected to continue and per haps increase somewhat in 1962. The following are summaries of national out look statements by the Department of Agricul ture for some important commodities in the Southwest. Cotton The carry-over of cotton in the United States on August 1, 1962, is expected to be around 400,000 bales above the 7.2 million bales on BANK TEXAS OF DALLAS As a result of acreage diversion under the 1962 wheat program, this year’s wheat produc tion could decline by about 160 million bushels below that in 1961 to around 1,075 million bushels. A crop of this size, together with an expected carry-over of about 1,365 million bushels and imports of approximately 8 million bushels, would result in a total wheat supply of 2,448 million bushels for the 1962-63 season. Exports for 1962-63 are projected at 625 mil lion bushels, and domestic disappearance may total about 590 million bushels. Based on these estimates, the wheat carry-over at the beginning The 1961 cotton crop in the United States, of July 1963 would be about 130 million bush including a small amount of imports, is expected els smaller than the carry-over expected on to exceed disappearance. In the 1961-62 sea July 1 this year. son (which began August 1, 1961), disappear Wheat prices received by the N ation’s ance probably will be somewhat smaller than farmers in 1961-62 may average above the the 14.9 million bales in the preceding season. announced support level for the first time since Per capita domestic consumption of cotton in 1950-51, when they averaged 1 cent per pound the United States this year is expected to be above the support price. above the 1961 estimate of 22.2 pounds — the lowest level since 1958. Exports from this coun Rice Acreage controls and large-scale exports, try during the 1961-62 marketing year may decline from the 6.6 million bales of 1960-61 mainly under Government programs, have re duced the carry-over stocks of rice in the United to about 5.5 million bales. States for the 1961-62 season to about oneWheat fourth of the record 34.6 million hundred The most important features of the wheat weight 5 years ago. The carry-over on August 1, outlook include (1) an anticipated slight re 1962, is expected to be about 9 million hun duction in carry-over on July 1, 1962 — the dredweight, with little change likely in 1963. first decline since 1958, (2) a prospective fur The national supply of rice in 1961-62 is ther reduction in carry-over by July 1, 1963, indicated at 64 million hundredweight, or 4 per (3) an all-time high for exports in the 1961-62 cent below that in the preceding season and season, (4) wheat prices that are high this year about one-tenth less than the 1955-59 average. relative to the support rate, and (5) the 1962 wheat program. Domestic disappearance of rice in 1961-62 The total wheat supply in the Nation for the is estimated at 27.3 million hundredweight, up 1961-62 marketing season (which began July 1, fractionally from the previous season. Exports 1961) is down slightly from the record of a year are indicated at around 28.7 million hundred earlier. The decline is a result of the smaller weight, down slightly from the 29.6 million 1961 crop, which more than offset the increase hundredweight in 1960-61. in the July 1, 1961, carry-over. Prices received by the Nation’s rice growers Domestic disappearance of wheat in 1961-62 in 1960-61 averaged 17 cents per hundred is indicated at 590 million bushels, and exports weight above the national support of $4.42. In may reach a record 675 million bushels. On the 1961-62, they are again expected to average basis of these estimates, approximately 1,365 well above the announced support rate of $4.71 million bushels of wheat probably will be car per hundredweight for 1961-crop rice. A na ried over on July 1, 1962, or a reduction of tional allotment of 1,817,856 acres has been about 45 million bushels from the year-earlier proclaimed for 1962-crop rice, which is 10 per level. cent above the allotment for the 1961 crop. hand a year earlier. Cotton stocks held by the Commodity Credit Corporation on August 1, 1961, totaled about 1.5 million bales, compared with approximately 5 million bales a year ear lier, and were the smallest for any August 1 since 1952. On the other hand, stocks held in commercial hands on August 1, 1961, totaled about 5.7 million bales — the largest number since 1958. On August 1, 1962, stocks held in commercial hands are expected to be consider ably smaller, while stocks held by the CCC may be as much as 3 million bales larger. East Texas Bankers Agricultural Conference To Be Held in Tyler January 25, 1962 The twelfth annual East Texas Bankers Agricultural Conference will be held in Tyler, Texas, on January 25, 1962. Registration will begin in the American Legion Hall at 8:30 a.m. Sponsors of the conference are the Tyler Clearing House Association and the East Texas Agricultural Council. An outstanding feature of the Tyler meeting will be an address by General Earl Rudder, President of Texas A. & M. College. Other discussions will include ways to increase profit from pastures, the outlook for livestock, and a success story of agricultural output in an east Texas county. Feed The 1961-62 feeding season (which began October 1, 1961) is the first season in nearly a decade in which supplies of feed grains declined, and a smaller carry-over is in prospect for the close of the marketing season. Although total feed grain acreage in 1961 was reduced 16 per cent, record yields were partially offsetting, and production decreased only about 11 percent. Price supports are higher for 1961-crop feed grains, and feed grain prices in the current sea son may average above those in 1960-61. Stocks of high-protein feed probably will be ample, and hay supplies are expected to be adequate and generally well distributed. Total feed grain utilization in 1961-62 may exceed 1961 feed grain production. Carry-over of feed grains into 1962-63 is expected to be approximately 5 million tons less than the record of 84 million tons carried over into 1961-62. According to the Department of Agriculture, higher feed grain prices are in prospect for the current season because of the increased price supports for the 1961 crops, smaller feed grain production, and the slight increase in the num ber of livestock to be fed. On the other hand, the larger volume of feed grains to be sold under the 1961 feed grain program may also influence prices, particularly those for corn and grain sorghums. Cattle Cattle prices this year may average about the same as in 1961. Fed cattle prices are not ex pected to decline as sharply this spring as a year ago and may be above 1961 levels through the summer. However, slaughter cow prices prob ably will be lower during the late summer and fall than in the corresponding period last year. The Nation’s cattlemen increased their herds in 1961, for the fourth consecutive year. The rise in cattle slaughter was more than offset by a larger calf crop, a reduction in calf slaughter, and a slightly greater number of live cattle imported from Canada and Mexico. Conse quently, the cattle and calf build-up is expected to show a larger gain than that achieved in 1960. Most of the gain is indicated to be in the cow and calf categories. The increase in cattle numbers is expected to continue in the current year. Per capita beef supplies probably will be about the same as in 1961. A slightly higher feed grain price level during the spring and summer is expected to curtail the feeding of steers and heifers to excessively heavy weights. Furthermore, total commercial slaugh ter probably will include substantially more cows and slightly fewer fed heifers than in 1961. For these reasons, average dressed weight is expected to be slightly below a year ago. Dairy Supplies of milk and dairy products in the United States this year probably will be more abundant than in 1961. Although milk output is expected to rise, consumers are not likely to increase their total purchases of dairy products very much, if at all, according to the USDA. Moreover, the relatively large quantities of dairy products currently in storage suggest no significant build-up in commercial inventories. As a result of these factors, substantially more dairy products probably will be offered to the Government under the price-support program. and expenditures. Only a small rise in mill con sumption of carpet wool is in prospect for 1962. Indications are that the average price re ceived for shorn wool will remain relatively stable through the 1961-62 marketing year In 1961, consumers reduced their purchases (April 1, 1961-March 31, 1962). With mill of all major dairy products except cheese. Re consumption expected to increase in 1962, a ductions were particularly sharp for fluid milk moderate price rise probably will occur in the and butter. Thus, total consumption from com first part of the 1962-63 marketing year. The mercial sources was significantly lower than in shorn wool incentive level for the 1962 market other recent years. The expected advance in ing year (April 1, 1962-March 31, 1963) has economic activity this year, however, may par been set at 62 cents per pound, grease basis. tially arrest the downtrend in demand for dairy World wool production and consumption in products and keep total consumption from 1962 probably will be near record levels. Stocks commercial sources at about the same level as of raw wool are expected to be relatively low, last year. and output of wool products may increase mod Part of the larger supplies of Government- erately. World trade probably will expand, and owned dairy products in 1962 probably will be prices likely will remain relatively stable. used to expand domestic distribution — partic Poultry and Eggs ularly of cheese — to schools, institutions, and Egg production in the United States in 1962 needy persons. Because of these larger distribu may exceed the 170 million cases estimated for tions, the total consumption of dairy products the preceding year, and prices received by pro from all sources this year may be higher than ducers likely will average below those in 1961. in 1961. The laying flock at the beginning of this year Supplies of butter probably will be suffi ciently large to permit substantially greater ex is expected to be slightly smaller than the 340 ports under Government programs for the first million potential layers on hand at the start of time since 1956; shipments of nonfat dry milk 1961, but the rate of lay per bird is likely to are likely to continue to be large, as they have average higher because there are more pullets and fewer hens in the flocks. been since 1953. The rise in the national egg supply this year The Nation’s farmers may realize some fur ther increase in cash receipts from the sale of probably will be greater than the prospective milk and dairy products in 1962, but this gain increase in the population, thereby adding 2 or 3 may be mainly offset by greater production eggs to the average consumption of 323 eggs per person estimated for 1961. costs. The outlook for broilers and turkeys in 1962 Wool is more clouded than that for eggs, according This year’s outlook for the domestic wool to the Department of Agriculture. Producers of industry in the United States is for moderate both of these meat birds had a very difficult year gains in domestic consumption of wool, mill in 1961, and their actions in the current year activity, foreign trade in raw wool and wool will depend, to a large extent, upon the financial products, and average prices received by pro resources that remain available to them from ducers for shorn wool. their usual sources of credit. The turkey situation is likely also to be in An increase in mill consumption of apparel wool is expected for 1962 as a result of (1) the fluenced by the proposed marketing orders for current steady demand for apparel products, turkeys and turkey hatching eggs; authority for (2) stepped-up military procurement, (3) a these orders is provided by the Agricultural Act moderate rise in inventory accumulation, and of 1961. Current legislation does not authorize (4) an expected increase in consumer incomes such programs for broilers or chicken eggs.
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