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AND ANCH Q u l l e t in January 15, 1960 Vol. 15, No. 1 A G R IC U L T U R A L O U T L O O K FO R I9 6 0 A slight decrease in average prices received by farmers, coupled with a small rise in costs of farm production and marketing, points to a further decline in realized net farm income of the Nation’s farmers in 1960, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Supplies of farm products are expected to remain heavy this year, with the already ex cessive stocks of wheat and feed grains being augmented further. Increases in exports, rising economic activity, and improved retail demand for food will help reduce the large supplies somewhat. Agricultural exports in fiscal 195960 are expected to reach $4 billion, which would be a near-record level. Most of the gain is due to anticipated higher exports of cotton. Cash receipts from farm marketings may show a smaller decline in 1960 than in the past year. Receipts from cattle, hogs, and wheat probably will be down somewhat, while those from milk and eggs may be up slightly. Not much change is likely for other commodities. Production expenses may rise slightly this year, mostly for such overhead items as taxes, depreciation, and interest. With lower receipts and higher expenses, realized net farm income will probably be down slightly from 1959. Weather conditions will be the dominant factor influencing 1960 production, but improved crop technology has tended to increase average yields. Livestock production and slaughter are expected to increase this year. The probable continued expansion in eco nomic activity should reinforce the rise in F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D A L L A S , income of farm people from nonfarm sources. These sources accounted for 28 percent of total farm income in 1958 and increased further in 1959. Government programs in 1960 will be about the same as in 1959. Available funds will per mit the inclusion of about 5 million additional acres in the Conservation Reserve this year. No major changes in price support levels are expected during 1960. Despite declines in agricultural prices and farm income, farm land values, farm assets, and rural levels of living have continued to rise. However, trends in 1959 suggest that these increases may be tapering off. The sharp rise in land prices during the past 5 years, which added nearly one-third to market values, may be approaching an end, according to the Department of Agriculture. The decline in farm income during the last half of 1959 and the prospect for some further decrease in 1960 probably will remove some of the stimulus to the farm land market. The following are summaries of national outlook statements by the Department of Agri culture for some important commodities in the Southwest. COTTON The supply of cotton in the United States in the 1959-60 season (which began August 1, 1959) is estimated at approximately 23.7 mil lion bales, or about 3.4 million bales more than in the preceding season, reflecting a sharp B A N K T E X AS OF D A L L A S increase in production. Despite this increase, the carry-over on August 1, 1960, probably will be about the same as the 8.9 million bales on August 1, 1959. Total disappearance is expected to rise to 14.5 million bales, which is up 3 million bales from 1958-59, principally because of sharply larger exports. Exports dur ing the current season are indicated to be about double the 2.8 million bales shipped in 195859. Domestic mill consumption is expected to be about 9 million bales — the highest since 1955-56. this size would be about 8 percent larger than in 1959 and would again exceed domestic requirements and exports, resulting in a further increase in the carry-over. The carry-over on July 1, 1961, could be about 170 million bushels over the estimated carry-over on July 1, 1960. Prices received by the Nation’s wheat farm ers in 1959-60 may average slightly higher than the $1.72 per bushel in the preceding season. The “advance” minimum national average support price for 1960-crop wheat is $1.77 per bushel; the average support price for the 1959 crop was $1.81. Under current legislation, 16.3 million acres have been allotted for upland cotton under the regular 1960 acreage allotment program. This minimum acreage can be increased by farmers’ RICE participation in the Choice B program. This As a result of sharply increased exports, a program permits a cotton farmer to increase further reduction in the rice carry-over is ex his acreage by 40 percent over his regular pected on August 1, 1960, for the fourth con allotment and to obtain price support through secutive year. Tentative estimates are for 29 nonrecourse loans at a 15 percent lower level million hundredweight to be shipped abroad than the price support available under the in 1959-60, which would be over 9.3 million regular allotment, or the Choice A program. hundredweight more than in 1958-59. Domes tic use is estimated at 26.4 million hundred WHEAT w e ig h t— up slig h tly from the p re v io u s The national wheat supply for the 1959-60 marketing year. This volume of exports and marketing year (which began July 1, 1959) domestic use would leave stocks on August 1, is placed at an all-time high of 2.4 billion 1960, at approximately 13.6 million hundred bushels. The total supply includes the carry weight, or 13 percent below a year earlier and over of 1.3 billion bushels, the 1959 crop of an 61 percent less than the 1956 record. estimated 1.1 billion bushels, and probable imports of about 8 million bushels, mostly of The advance minimum national average support price for 1960-crop rice has been set feeding quality and seed wheat. at $4.36 per hundredweight, which is 75 per Domestic disappearance of wheat in 1959- cent of the December 1959 rice parity price. 60 is estimated at 630 million bushels, or Producers who remain within their acreage approximately unchanged from the preceding allotments will be eligible for price support at season. Exports are expected to total 410 mil this level for up to $50,000 of nonrecourse lion bushels, which is somewhat smaller than loans and purchase agreements and for re in 1958-59. course loans for any production above this These estimates of supply and disappearance amount. Growers who exceed their farm acre indicate a carry-over on July 1, 1960, of about age allotments will be subject to marketing 1.4 billion bushels, or 7 percent more than the quota penalties, and none of their production year-earlier level and 55 percent above the will be eligible for price support. July 1, 1958, figure. FEED With the minimum national allotment of 55 million acres in effect for 1960, a little more Another favorable growing season in 1959 than 53 million acres may be harvested. A crop and large carry-over stocks from previous of about 1.2 billion bushels may be produced years have increased total supplies of feed if yields equal those in recent years. A crop of grains and other concentrates for the 1959-60 season (which began October 1, 1959) to a new high of 264 million tons. slaughter reflects the quicker build-up in the number of young slaughter stock. Slaughter would still be low enough to allow cattle num bers to continue upward at a rather fast rate. Feed grain production has consistently exceeded utilization since 1952, and carry-over Average slaughter weights may be a little stocks have increased each year since then, lower than the record level established in 1959; attaining a new peak of 67 million tons in therefore, the gain in total beef output may not 1959. Total utilization in 1959-60 is expected be unusually large. Indications are that cattle to fall short of production again, and carry prices will continue to drift downward during over stocks will rise, probably reaching ap 1960. proximately 80 million tons at the close of the present marketing year. The total tonnage of feed grains exported in 1959-60 may equal, if DAIRY not exceed, the record level of a year earlier. Some increase in national milk production is likely for 1960; however, the supply of milk The number of grain-consuming livestock in products per person is expected to be below 1959-60 is expected to be 3 percent larger the 1959 level, according to the Department than a year earlier. Liberal feeding per animal of Agriculture. With consumer incomes at a unit probably will continue, and total domestic new high, retail prices may rise. For consider use is likely to be a little heavier than in 1958able periods in 1960, prices to farmers for milk 59. and butterfat probably will be above the 1959 Feed grain prices are expected to average a levels, and the average for the year is almost little lower in 1959-60 than in the preceding certain to be above that in 1959. season, in view of the record 1959 production Both the volume of dairy products sold by and the decline in the general level of livestock farmers and the cash receipts from these com prices. modities are expected to reach all-time highs The 1959-60 hay supply is down 6 percent in 1960. Costs of feed may be lower, but costs from the peak level of a year earlier but is of most other items used in production may be above the 1953-57 average, both in terms of higher. Net income from the dairy enterprise the total supply and the supply per animal probably will be at least as high as in 1959, if unit. Supplies of hay are ample in most areas not a little higher. of the United States. WOOL CATTLE The outlook for wool through the first half Cattle numbers in the United States prob ably will continue upward during 1960. Com bined steer and heifer slaughter is expected to show some increase over the reduced rate of the preceding year. The prospective gain in of 1960 is one of strong demand and stable prices at levels above a year earlier. Domestic production of shorn wool in 1959 was 5 per cent higher than in the preceding year and is expected to increase slightly in 1960. The aver age price received by growers for shorn wool for the 1959-60 marketing year probably will be 10 to 15 percent higher than that received in 1958-59. The incentive level for the Nation’s produc ers for the 1960 marketing year (April 1, 1960-March 31, 1961) has been set at 62 cents per pound for shorn wool, or 86 percent of the October 1959 parity price. The support level for mohair is 70 cents per pound, which is 74 percent of the October parity price. Both are at the same dollar-and-cents levels which have been in effect for the 5 years of the incentive programs. placed on canvas or boards to await sacking. The amount of shrinkage will be reduced, and fleeces will be brighter in color. POULTRY AND EGGS 3. Sacking — Sack all wool according to grade, and mark accordingly. Bags should be firm but should not be over packed. Overpacked bags tend to burst in handling, and the heavier bags often cause wool buyers to overshrink the clip. Total egg and poultry meat output this year is expected to be little, if any, above the 1959 level. Smaller supplies of broilers and eggs are in prospect for the first half of 1960 than in the same period a year ago. More turkeys may be slaughtered, but production early this year will be seasonally small. Egg production is likely to continue below a year earlier through the spring, inasmuch as the number of layers will be smaller. The re duced output of eggs will result in a decline in per capita supplies; however, a sharp rise in prices may not occur in 1960 because of ap parent declines in the demand for eggs. A reasonable expectation would be an average increase of perhaps 2 or 3 cents per dozen above the 1959 average. Any increase in price probably will not begin until the second quar ter of this year. Properly Prepared W o o l Pays Dividends 4. Corrals — Sprinkle the corrals before shearing begins each morning and afternoon, in order to reduce wool shrinkage. This prac tice settles the dust and makes working condi tions much more pleasant. C a ttle Bloat Runs in the Family Studies made at Oregon State College indi cate that chronic bloat of cattle “runs in the family,” according to Dr. C. M. Patterson, Ex tension Veterinarian with the Texas Agricul tural Extension Service. In records kept on 250 beef calves in the Oregon study, chronic bloat showed up in 7 out of 13 offspring of “bloater” bulls mated to “bloater” cows or to cows closely related to the bulls. Less than 4 percent of the regular breeding herd bloated occasionally. Clean, properly bagged wool will demand a premium price, and the increased return will more than offset the limited amount of time and effort required at shearing time, says Jack L. Ruttle, Sheep and Wool Marketing Special ist at New Mexico State University. Bloat is caused by a build-up of gas during feed digestion in the large storage reservoir in a network of four stomachs in cattle. Chronic bloating stunts growth of the animals and is a major cause of death in both beef and dairy cattle. Mr. Ruttle makes the following recommen dations for obtaining greater returns. Dr. Patterson points out that bloat occurs most often when animals are on high-quality feed, such as good alfalfa supplemented with barley. Test animals in the Oregon study re ceived a pelleted ration of two parts half-inch cut alfalfa hay to one part grain mix. 1. Shearing — Keep the number of “second cuts” at a minimum. (They result in waste and decrease the value of the wool.) Shearers should avoid tearing the fleece and should try to shear it off in one piece. Black fleeces should be sacked separately and marked as such, since their presence will lower the value of the wool. 2. Fleece tying — Roll and tie the fleeces with the shoulder and side wool out; the bellies and small pieces should be on the inside. Excess tags and stained portions should be removed before tying. Fleeces should be tied with standard paper fleece tie and should be Since the tendency to bloat was increased in the tests through selective breeding, Dr. Patter son believes that it may be possible to pinpoint chronic bloating families and thus help cattle breeders select against this abnormality. <► --------------------------------------------------------♦ The F A R M A N D R A N C H B U L L E T IN is p r e p a r e d in th e R esearch D e p a rtm e n t u n d e r th e d ire c tio n o f J . Z . Row e, A g r ic u ltu ra l E co n o m ist.
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