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l I-?: Fact book for Estimating the Manpower Needs of Federal Programs U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 1975 Bulletin 1832 Factbook for Estimating the Manpower Needs of Federal Programs U.S. Department of Labor John T. Dunlop, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin, Commissioner 1975 Bulletin 1832 For sate by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. GPO Bookstore, or BLS Regional Offices listed on inside back cover. Price $1.40 Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. Stock Number 029-001-01388-4 Catalog Number L 2.3:1832 Preface This bulletin was prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) with funds provided by the Manpower Administration for a series of studies on the manpower impact of Federal programs. The BLS has for some time been engaged in estimating the employment requirements by industry and occupation of various government and private activities. This work received substantial impetus when the President, in his Manpower Report of March 1972, directed the Department of Labor to develop a capability for measuring the employment effects of all Federal programs and policies. “Both the efficiency of our economy and ,the well-being of the country’s workers will be served by more systematic assessment of the manpower consequences of government policies and programs. Accordingly, I am instructing the Secretary of Labor to develop for my consideration recommendations with respect to the most effective mechanisms for achieving such an assessment and for assuring the findings receive appropriate attention in the government’s decision-making processes.” The Department of Labor has since taken a number of steps to help in this assessment. In the BLS, techniques and models used in the past principally for long-term projections of industry and occupational employment needs are being adapted to measure the current manpower requirements of Federal spending programs, and work is underway on techniques for measuring the effects on manpower supply. Future plans include the development of new methods for measuring the employment effects of Federal policy changes and the manpower implications of programs that do not involve significant changes in outlays. The results will be published as these studies are completed. This study was prepared in the Division of Economic Growth, Office of Economic Trends, under the supervision of Ronald E. Kutscher. It was designed and written by Richard P. Oliver with the editorial assistance of Virginia A. Broadbeck. Industry employment factors were developed by Donald P. Eldridge and Marybeth Tschetter. Thomas F. Fleming, Jr., contributed to the section illustrating the application of the factors to specific programs. The occupational demand factors and contributions to the text were provided by Daniel Hecker, George Silvestri, Joel Segaloff, and David Martin, under the direction of Michael F. Crowley of the Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook, Office of Manpower Structure and Trends. This research was funded by the Office of Manpower Research and Development of the Manpower Administration, Howard Rosen, Director. Contents Page Introduction - Chapter 1. What are manpower factors? ........................................................................................................................ Types of factors .................................................................................................................................................... Methods used in deriving factors ........................................................................................................................ Limitations of f a c t o r s ............................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 2 3 Chapter 2. Using manpower factors to develop employment re q u irem en ts................................................................ 5 Summary ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Program a n a l y s i s .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Selection of factor p r o g r a m s ................................................................................................................................ 6 Data adjustment ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 Factor adjustment ................................................................................................................................................ 9 Employment calculations ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Chapter 3. Illustrations of uses of manpower f a c t o r s .................................................................................................... 14 Military expenditures, fiscal year 1974 budget p ro p o s a l.........................................................................................14 Program analysis .............................................................................................................................................14 Factor s e le c tio n .................................................................................................................................................14 Data adjustment ........................................ 15 Factor a d ju stm e n t.............................................................................................................................................15 Employment calcu latio n s................................................................................................................................ 16 Education revenue sharing, fiscal year 1974 budget p ro p o s a l............................ ................................................18 Program analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 1 8 Factor s e le c tio n .................................................................................................................................................18 Data adjustment .............................................................................................................................................19 Factor a d ju stm e n t.............................................................................................................................................19 Employment calculations................................................................................................................................ 20 Occupational safety and health, fiscal year 1974 budget p ro p o s a l........................................................................ 20 Program analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 20 Factor s e le c tio n ................................................................................................................................................ 21 Tables: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Factor programs ........................................................................................................................................ 7 Adjustments for price c h a n g e .................................................................................................................... 9 Adjustments for productivity c h a n g e ............................................................................................................ 10 Total program manpower factors .................................................................................................................10 Industry manpower f a c t o r s .............................................................................................................................11 Occupational manpower f a c t o r s .....................................................................................................................12 Military expenditures: Industry manpower factors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year1974 16 Military expenditures: Occupational manpowerfactors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year1974 16 Military expenditures: Calculated employment requirements by sector, fiscal year 1974 17 Contents— Continued Tables—Continued: 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Military expenditures: Calculated employment requirements by occupational group, fiscal year 1974 ............................................................................................ Education revenue sharing: Industry manpower factors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year 1974 ............................................................................ Education revenue sharing: Occupational manpower factors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year 1974 ............................................................................ Education revenue sharing: Calculated employment requirements by sector, fiscal year 1974 .................................................................................................................... Education revenue sharing: Calculated employment requirements by occupational group, fiscal year 1974 ........................................................................................ 17 19 20 20 20 Appendixes: A. Methods used to derive manpower f a c t o r s .................................................................................................... 22 B. Limitations of manpower f a c t o r s ................................................................................................................ 23 C. Outline of procedures for using manpower f a c t o r s ........................................................................................ 26 D. Factor detail by industry and occupation .................................................................................................... 28 E. 1970 interindustry employment and industry-occupational m o d e ls ............................................................ 73 Introduction Almost all Federal Government activities affect man power in some way. These effects range from the direct hiring of Federal personnel to the employment created in private industry by Federal spending programs, to the more complicated manpower effects of Federal stan dards, regulations, and economic policies. The effects on manpower vary with different activities, but a particular Federal program may significantly influence the demand for or the supply of labor, or may affect the skills and well-being of the labor force. Federal actions affecting manpower may be classified in a number of different ways, but for analytical purposes this study broadly classifies them as actions which predominantly involve Federal money flows and those which affect manpower mainly through policies or regulatory actions. Money flow programs are defined to include all types of Federal outlays and revenue collections. Policy programs would include cases where the Federal Government en courages or requires other sectors of the economy to alter purchasing patterns, as well as cases where manpower effects are significant although money flows are small. Pollution control standards or occupational safety and health regulations, which involve the purchase of additional or modified equipment by the private sector, are representative of policy impact actions. This category also includes the military draft and immigration policies, which affect the supply of labor without involving major money flows. This study deals with one of the more important areas of Federal manpower impact—the requirements for manpower that are created by Federal expenditures. It is intended to provide agency administrators with a means of estimating the public and private employment re quirements of a program, based upon the program’s outlays. The study will not address all of the effects on manpower that are generated by any Federal program, policy, or other type of Federal action. These effects would encompass all of the influences working on the quantity of manpower demanded and supplied, as well as qualitative results such as improvements in health, safety, education, and other social benefits. The effects discussed here are an important, but limited, sector of manpower impact, the demand for manpower created by program outlays. The Factbook contains sets of “manpower factors” which show the amounts of employment, by industry and occupation, which were generated by a billion dollars of outlays for different Federal functions in a recent period. By applying these factors to the amounts of money projected for a Federal program, that pro gram’s future employment requirements may be roughly estimated. Manpower factors can have many policy uses. Pro grams can be considered for their employment gener ating characteristics as well as for their public benefits and costs. The job requirements created by existing programs can be estimated for past periods, and new programs can be evaluated for their job-creating poten tial in individual industries and occupations. Loss of job opportunities due to cutbacks, such as have occurred in defense or space programs, can be calculated, pointing to potential problems in individual industries and occupa tions. Or, in the case of expanding programs, bottlenecks in particular occupations possibly may be foreseen if labor supply information is also available, providing guidance to manpower training programs. For example, calculating the effects on employment of substantial growth in health services may indicate a potential shortage of doctors and other health personnel, requiring additional professional training and a longer period of time for achieving the goals. Chapter 1. What Are Manpower Factors? The manpower or employment requirements factors given here relate'aggregate expenditures for a particular program to the number of job opportunities created by these expenditures. They do not provide estimates of the actual employment that might result from a Federal program. Actual employment will be determined as the net result of all influences on both the demand for and supply of labor. Manpower factors are simply multipliers which will convert planned program expenditures into estimates o f job requirements based upon recent indus try employment relationships. This Factbook presents manpower factors for about 40 different categories of demand. These categories cover the total economy considered as the demand side of the gross national product. In some cases, these demand categories have been separated into fairly specific functions representing or approximately describ ing a Federal program or one of its components. In other cases, the demand categories cover broad sectors of expenditures that have not yet been studied from a manpower point of view and assigned to specific functional programs. For example, at this time, in the area of Federal Government purchases, defense and space programs have been analyzed separately, but all other direct Federal purchases are lumped together in a single category. Since the outlays of many Federal programs ulti mately are spent by other sectors of the economy, factors for these sectors also are provided. For example, Federal grants are spent by State and local government institutions, while transfer payments to persons become primarily personal consumption expenditures. Thus, in selecting a demand category to represent the outlays of a given Federal program, it is frequently necessary to use factors for some other sector where .the Federal funds ultimately are spent. Types of factors Two types of factors are provided—industry man power factors, which can be used to estimate the amount of employment required in total or by industry, and occupational manpower factors, which can be used to calculate the employment required in different occupations. Each program covered includes a list of these factors for both the private and public sectors of the economy. Industry manpower factors are ratios showing the relationship between dollars spent and the employment required by these expenditures in each industry. They represent the number of jobs required1 by $1 billion of expenditures in 1972. As such, they reflect 1972 price and productivity relationships. The factor tables provide, for each program covered, factors for total employment requirements (table 4), factors for the employment required by major industry sector (table 5), and factors for each of 134 industries (table D-l). For example, the aggregate employment generated by $1 billion spent on defense is shown, in table 4, as a requirement for 74,193 jobs of all types. This amount is disaggregated into major industry sectors such as agriculture, mining, and manu facturing in table 5, and is further separated into individual industries in table D-l. Occupational manpower factors show the amounts of employment required by occupation for $1 billion of expenditures. Occupational manpower factors represent the percentage distribution of industry manpower fac tors into specific occupations. The total number of job requirements generated in each of nine major occupa tional groups is given in table 6 and these requirements are broken down into the demand for each of 160 occupations in table D-3. Methods used in deriving factors The models and analytical approaches used to de velop these factors estimate employment requirements in the private sector by tracing all production require ments generated by each program’s purchases. The basic models are an interindustry employment model and an industry-occupation model, discussed in detail in ap pendix E. The interindustry employment model traces purchases of goods and services through each sector, determining the employment needed in each industry to 1Manpower requirements are a count of the number of jobs rather than the number of persons holding jobs. Thus, an individual who holds more than one job is counted more than once. The employment estimates cover wage and salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. support these purchases. The industry-occupation model provides a distribution of the employment in each industry into 160 occupational categories. In this framework of analysis, where employment in each industry is determined on the basis of generated production levels, coverage of employment requirements would generally be limited to direct Federal purchases of goods and services. However, this system can be ex tended to other types of Federal outlays, such as grants-in-aid, transfer payments, and subsidies, by deter mining the purchases made by the sector receiving the Federal outlay. For example, the employment require ments created by grants to State and local governments can be estimated from studies of the purchases made by State and local governments in carrying out the purposes of the grants. Similarly, transfer payments to persons can be analyzed by considering the impact of these payments on personal consumption expenditures. This, of course, involves determining the extent to which transfer payments become disposable income and con sumption expenditures and then identifying the pattern of subsequent consumption purchases. Similarly, the employment effects of subsidies to businesses can be estimated once the extent and type of resulting business purchases have been determined. Manpower factors, then, were derived from inter industry employment requirements studies which pro vided industry employment requirements for each pro gram or category of demand. These estimates were used first to construct industry manpower factors. They were used next as input into the industry-occupation model to obtain the occupational requirements which provide the basis for the occupational manpower factors. Since both types of factors were based on an interindustry system, the employment included consists of both the direct employment used in producing final products and the indirect employment required in all supplying industries. A fuller explanation of the derivation of manpower factors is given in appendix A. Limitations of factors Manpower factors provide a consistent and reason ably comparable basis for estimating the employment requirements of various Federal programs. They are calculated within the framework of all requirements on the economy, with given control totals for sector expenditures and industry output and employment levels ensuring a reasonable degree of accuracy. How ever, the development of these factors for Federal programs is just getting underway and there are major limitations and gaps in the current estimating system. These limitations are covered in general terms in this section and in more detail in appendix B. The principal deficiency of manpower factors, from the point of view of complete manpower assessment, is that they provide estimates of employment requirements and not estimates of the actual employment changes that might be expected to result from a new Federal program. Estimating actual employment effects would require comprehensive information on all of the influ ences on both the demand and supply sides o f particular labor markets. Manpower factors estimate just a part of manpower demand and, as such, must be regarded as estimates of job opportunities created rather than the actual employment that might be created. In addition, in cases of ongoing programs or new programs that replace existing ones, there may be little or no change in actual employment. Also, Federal funds that become grants to States or transfer payments to persons may merely replace money previously spent by these groups for the same purpose, with little employment change directly attributable to the new program. In some industries operating at below capacity levels, additional Federal funds may result in better utilization of the existing labor force with a less than proportional increase in new employment. The interindustry and occupational model structures from which the manpower factors were derived describe average relationships, or the average employment required to produce the total annual output of each industry. In this study, these factors are used to estimate changes in employment requirements due to an increment in purchases from a particular industry. For this purpose, marginal or incremental manpower factors are more appropriate. That is, a directly proportional increase in employment may not be required by an increment in outlays and a different mix of production and administrative workers may result. Also, in measuring or estimating actual employ ment effects, one would want to include the additional employment that would be expected from the income multiplier and accelerator effects. The other major criticism of manpower factors is that coverage is limited. Factors are not available for a number of major Federal programs. Specific interindus try employment studies in depth are required to produce manpower factors. At this time only defense and space programs have been subjected to this kind of analysis. Other Federal programs have been estimated as a single aggregate of category of demand. Studies, currently underway, will add a few new programs and reduce this aggregate. Some Federal programs that are conducted principally in other sectors of the economy, such as highway construction grants, are covered in other programs. However, a number of major programs such as social security payments or Medicare and Medicaid cannot be adequately expressed in existing factors and require detailed study. Further, manpower factors are calculated on a national basis and do not identify requirements by region or demographic characteristic such as age, sex, or race. Assessment of a program’s consequences and the development of any needed remedies require a more specific determination of the people affected. Since the manpower data included in these estimates were basically derived from an interindustry employ ment model, these estimates will have the characteristic features and limitations of an interindustry system. The industries used here are those defined in the 1963 input-output study of the Department of Commerce. Employment is on a “jobs” basis so that both full- and part-time job requirements are estimated by using the factors. Although the estimated employment includes the direct employment in each industry and the indirect employment generated in all of the supplying industries, these estimates do not include the income multiplier and accelerator effects. The limitations of the interindustry system are covered in detail in appendix B. Chapter 2. Using Manpower Factors to Develop Employment Requirements This chapter explains how to use manpower factors to develop employment requirements. The summary below outlines the major steps in the procedure; a more detailed list of instructions is provided in appendix C. Summary A. Program analysis 1. Determining economic effects 2. Tracing program outlays to the sectors which ultimately spend them B. Selection of factor programs Matching program outlays to factor programs by: 1. purchasing sector 2. type of purchase C. Data adjustment 1. Organizing expenditures by factor program 2. Adjusting expenditures to price level of base period of factors D. Factor adjustment 1. Adjusting industry factors for productivity change 2. Adjusting occupational factors for produc tivity change E. Employment calculations— Multiplying adjusted outlays by adjusted factors Program analysis Economic analysis. Before estimating the employment requirements of a Federal program or other activity, it is first desirable to broadly examine the various economic effects of the program to determine in general how they will influence manpower. This examination should focus on which sectors of the economy would be affected by the program, the mechanism or way in which manpower effects would be transmitted, and the kinds of effects on manpower that would result. Such an analysis would serve as the basis for estimating employment require ments and would give perspective to these estimates by providing a general framework of manpower effects in which employment requirements could be considered. It would determine the sectors of the economy that ultimately spend program funds for subsequent use in calculating estimates of employment requirements. In addition, it would outline the range and general magni tude of all types of manpower effects generated by the program. For example, a Federal program might have relatively low expenditures and consequently create relatively small employment requirements using man power factors, but still have substantial impact in other ways on the demand, supply, or quality of manpower. While these aspects are not measurable through use of employment requirements factors, their overall signifi cance should be considered in an agency’s assessment of its programs. Tracing outlays. Once an overall analytical framework has been established, an agency is better able to proceed with the more specific assessment of the job require ments created by outlays for a particular program. Analyzing employment requirements involves tracing the activities of a Federal program throughout the economy and determining the effects on manpower at various stages. At this time, when only Federal outlay programs can be assessed, employment requirements are deter mined by tracing money flows. Of course, the direct Federal employment for a particular program may be readily available from agency personnel records. Most of the employment effects, however, will usually occur in other sectors, and these are determined by tracing program funds to the actual spender. National income accounting procedures are followed in tracing Federal outlays, which are considered to consist of direct purchases of goods and services, grants-in-aid to State and local government institutions, transfer and interest payments to persons, and subsidies, transfers, and interest paid to businesses. This definition classifies Federal outlays by the economic sector, or component of demand, that ultimately spends the program money. The way in which the money is spent determines the employment requirements. Manpower factors are based upon recent purchasing patterns of the sectors receiving Federal funds and relate these pur chases to employment requirements. Direct Federal purchases of goods and services in clude compensation for the direct employment of Federal Government personnel and expenditures for goods and services bought from the private economy. These outside purchases create employment require ments both directly in the industries producing the products purchased and indirectly in supporting indus tries. Grants-in-aid are Federal funds transferred to State and local governments to be spent for particular pur poses, such as highway construction, or for broader purposes, as in the case of revenue sharing. Transfer payments to persons are Federal payments where pro ductive services are not required in return from the recipients, such as Medicare and other social security benefits. Subsidies are monetary grants to business to achieve certain economic goals. In the case of direct purchases of goods and services, the Federal Government is the final spender, while grant outlays are spent by State and local governments. All Federal payments to persons constitute income which will be largely spent by the recipient on personal consumption items. Payments to businesses, such as subsidies, will be spent by the business sector. Tracing the employment requirements resulting from Federal purchases is relatively straightforward. The employment effects occur in the direct hiring of Federal employees and in the employment required in the private sector by the production of goods and services actually purchased. These employment requirements are embodied in the factors for the Federal government programs. Grants-in-aid present a somewhat more com plicated path of effect. In these programs, some employ ment is generated by administrative purchases at the Federal level. Most of the employment effects occur, however, from the expenditure of the grant funds by the State or local government. In many cases, a Federal grant will trigger State or local contributions according to some matching formula. The employment require ments generated by these matching funds should be considered part of the program’s impact. Grant funds will create employment in the direct hiring of State and local employees and, when they are spent on purchases of goods and services, will create employment in the private sector. Outlays in the form of transfer payments will create some direct Federal employment for program administration, but will principally create employment in the private sector as recipients use the money for personal consumption purchases. Similarly, subsidies to businesses will create some Federal employment but will mainly affect the private sector. After a program’s economic effects have been con sidered and outlays have been traced to the sector which finally spends the funds, the next step is to select the factor program which most closely represents the Fed eral action being studied. As indicated, a program may be directly represented in the Federal purchases sector, or in some other sector which spends program funds. In some cases factors may not be available for all of the component parts of a program and other factors which reasonably approximate the remaining purchasing sec tors may be substituted. In other cases no factor program will adequately describe the Federal program under consideration. Since the factors apply only to outlays, no attempt to use them should be made unless Federal outlays are a significant part of a program. And, since outlays may in part be spent through other sectors of the economy, decisions on factor selection must be postponed until program funds have been traced to the various purchasing sectors. Selecting appropriate program factors requires a basic understanding of both the Federal program under consideration and of the factor programs available. Factor programs are organized first by the components of demand, or the sectors which ultimately spend the Federal funds. These demand categories include the Federal Government, State and local governments, per sonal consumption expenditures, exports, and gross private domestic fixed investment. Within these sectors, programs are further broken down by the functional types of purchases made by the sector. In a separate category, construction programs are listed by type of construction, such as residential, industrial, educational, or local transit facilities. Table 1 lists the programs and demand sectors for which factors are currently available. The total public sector encompasses Federal, State, and local government sectors. Within the Federal sector, defense purchases consist of Department of Defense military outlays and Atomic Energy Commission ex penditures. The nondefense category includes all other Federal spending, with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) requirements given separately. State and local government programs are grouped into three functional areas: education, which consists largely of elementary and secondary education require ments; health, welfare, and sanitation; and “other” functions, which include highways, parks and recreation, natural resources, civilian safety, general government, and the capital purchases of government enterprises. Each of the three functions, as well as total State and local government purchases, is separated into new Program BY COMPONENT OF DEM A N D Total, public sector Federal Government Defense Nondefense Except NASA NASA State and local government Except structures New construction Education Except structures New construction Health, welfare, and sanitation Except structures New construction Other functions Except structures New construction Total, private sector Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Food construction and all spending excluding structures. State and local construction categories differ from the types of construction listed separately in table 1. State and local programs represent construction purchased by these levels of government in total and for each functional area, regardless of whether a type of construc tion is primary to the function. Construction programs classified by type refer more strictly to the construction or renovation of the particular residential, nonresiden tial, or public utility facility itself. Demand for these structures may be generated by any or all of the components of demand—Federal Government, State and local government, or business investment. For example, State and local new educational con struction includes such facilities as dormitories, apart ments, and administrative offices in addition to educa tional buildings themselves. Where construction pro grams are listed by type of building, educational construction includes only educational buildings— primarily schools, but also museums and art galleries. Among the private sector programs, personal con sumption encompasses all spending by households on durable goods, such as automobiles, furniture, and household equipment; on nondurable goods, such as food and clothing; and on services, which include housing expenses, medical care, transportation, and recreation. Within the exports sector, merchandise exports are composed of all exported goods and the trade and Program Services Medical Exports Merchandise and services Merchandise only Gross private domestic fixed investment Producers' durable equipment Private new construction BY TYPE OF CO NSTRUCTIO N Residential buildings Single-family Multifamily Nonresidential buildings Industrial Office and commercial Educational Hospital and institutional Public utility structures Telephone and telegraph Electric Water Sewer Local transit Highways and streets transportation costs incurred in their export. This is by far the most important component of exports in terms of manpower requirements. Nonmerchandise exports consist largely of income flows from foreign invest ments, and have relatively minor manpower implications in the context of this study. In the gross private domestic Fixed investment sector, producers’ durable equipment includes machinery and all other capital goods except structures. Factor selection, then, is mainly a process of match ing the outlay components of a Federal action to the sector of the economy actually using the Federal funds, and then matching the type of expenditure by function. The tracing procedure of the preceding section will have determined the sectors affected so that the remaining problem at this stage is to determine which functional category, if any, adequately describes the program being considered. Since only a few direct Federal purchasing functions have been studied and have manpower factors readily available, occasions for their use will be obvious but not frequent. In other cases of Federal purchases of goods and services, the employment requirements may be best approximated by using the total “nondefense except NASA” category. However, where program purchases are known to be highly specialized, as in the case of hospital operations or air traffic control electronics and communication equipment, this residual program cate gory would not be satisfactory. Federal grant programs will generally have a portion of their outlays spent on administration, which will result in some direct Federal employment and in some private employment from direct overhead purchases. The employment requirements created as States spend grant funds may be approximated by selecting one or more sets of factors from the State and local government programs. If the grant is for education or for health, welfare and sanitation, manpower factors are available in the State and local government sector. If the grant is for construction, State and local manpower factors include construction for education, health, welfare, and sanita tion and all other functions. In addition, factors for some specific types of construction are listed separately in the factor tables. The effects of grants for purposes other than those listed may be approximated by using factors for “other” State and local government func tions. Factors for the total of State and local govern ment activities can be used to estimate the requirements of general purpose grants such as general revenue sharing. In all cases, the program should be examined to see if matching State grants are required which would generate additional employment requirements. State and local contributions should be added to Federal grant outlays to determine the total amount of money spent by State and local governments. The impact of transfer payments to persons can be approximated by selecting the manpower factors for one or more categories of personal consumption expendi tures. For example, the effects of social security payments on employment requirements could be roughly estimated by using factors for the total of personal consumption expenditures. Medicare payments would be best handled at this time by using factors for personal consumption expenditures on medical services, although the results would not be expected to be more than a broad approximation. Since subsidies represent grants to businesses, their requirements may be approximated by using some factor for business expenditures. This would be true for loan guarantee programs also. However, where a subsidy is given to a particular industry, such as agriculture or ship building, the program areas given for the business sector will probably be too broad to use. And, if subsidy or loan funds are granted to single firms within an industry, the factors available will not provide suitable representa tion for estimating employment requirements. In all cases where factor programs provide only an approximate representation of the Federal action being studied, an agency will have to determine their adequacy in first describing the activity and then in estimating employment effects. This, of course, will depend upon how the employment requirements estimates will be used. In some cases only a rough approximation will be required while in others a more exact representation will be needed. Data adjustment The only data required in order to use manpower factors are the aggregate program expenditures. These expenditures must be classified or distributed in the same way in which the factor programs are organized— by purchasing sector and by type of purchase. These outlays must then be adjusted for price change to make them compatible with the manpower factors. Expenditures may be readily available in the form required or an agency may have to estimate some of the components. This task will probably have been accom plished earlier in the course of tracing program money flows. An additional problem is that data for some Federal programs may be available only as obligational authority and not as expenditures. Since obligational authority represents only potential expenditures, some timing adjustments will have to be made to convert obligations to anticipated expenditures in a particular year. In some of these cases, expenditures may be easily estimated since Federal money is required to be spent in the same year in which it is obligated. In other cases, obligated money may be spent over several years, presenting substantial timing problems. Whether ex penditures for a program are obtained directly or are estimated, they must be calculated for a 1-year period since all factors are based on annual employment requirements. Once expenditures have been properly determined and classified, the only adjustment needed is for price changes. Annual program expenditures, as distributed by spender and function, must be converted to 1972 dollars, the same base year for prices that was used for the manpower factors. When factors are applied to program expenditures for years other than 1972, em ployment requirements will be distorted to the extent that prices are different from the base period. When expenditures for a future year are being considered, price deflators must be estimated on the basis of historical price behavior and other pertinent informa tion. Price deflators should be representative of the purchasing sector and type of purchase. For example, Federal highway grants would be adjusted by the national income deflator for public structures, highways, and streets. Price adjustment then, simply consists of dividing expenditures for a year other than 1972 by an adjustment factor which eliminates the effects of price change since 1972. Program Average annual percentage change in prices, calendar years 1958-72 Annual price adjustment 4.2 4 2 4.2 4 2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.5 5.2 5.1 5.2 1.042 1 042 1.042 1 042 1.042 1.044 1.043 1.045 1.052 1.051 1.052 4.3 5.2 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.6 2.4 1.043 1.052 1.043 1.045 1.044 1.046 1.024 2.3 .8 2.2 2.3 3.1 4.7 1.023 1.008 1.022 1.023 1.031 1.047 Program Average annual Annual percentage change in price prices, calendar adjustment years 1958-72 BY COMPONENT OF DEMAND Total, public s e c to r.......................... Federal nondefense................. NASA ............................... State and local government . . Except structures............ New construction............ Education............................... Except structures............ New construction............ Health, welfare, and sanitatio n ............................. Except structures............ New construction............ Other fu n c tio n s ................... Except structures............ New construction............ Total, private sector.......................... Personal consumption o v n o n r l iti irp s n nur iu a hUlic fi y nu nu n rulc L/ o •••••«•• M n ir a h liv o n nu nH c iv n un i i rulu uM yu uo ■• • • • F n n fl Spr\/irps . . Medical ................... Most agencies have had considerable experience in estimating price changes in their programs over the near future. Data on past and relatively recent changes by overall program can be found for most programs in the national income series of implicit deflators.2 Price changes in programs dealing with types of construction can be found in Bureau of the Census construction data.3 For guidance, the average annual changes in program prices for 1958 to 1972 are given in table 2. Other information on price changes in a particular program should also be considered. In periods of rapid change in prices an estimated rate of current or future change may differ significantly from the rates shown. Factor adjustment Since the manpower factors in this Factbook are based upon industry productivity relationships in 1972, the factors themselves should be adjusted when applied to other years. If productivity or output per employee were to increase from 1972 to a future year, fewer employees would be required than are indicated by these factors. If productivity were to drop, more employees would be needed to produce the same amount as was Exports, merchandise and services . Merchandise o n ly ..................... Gross private domestic fixed investment...................................... Producers' durable equipment .......................... Private new construction 1.9 2.0 1.019 1.020 2.7 1.027 1.7 3.9 1.017 1.039 2.6 2.8 1.026 1.028 4.2 4.4 4.4 1.042 1.044 1.044 4.4 1.044 4.5 3.1 4.6 4.8 4.1 3.5 1.045 1.031 1.046 1.048 1.041 1.035 BY TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION Residential buildings: S in gle-fam ily................... M u ltifa m ily ...................... Nonresidential buildings: Ind ustrial.......................... Office and commercial. . Educational...................... Hospital and jnctitiitjnnal Public utility structures: Telephone and telegraph...................... E le c tric ............................. W a te r................................. Sew er................................. Local transit ................... Highways and streets.............. produced in 1972. Factor distortion due to productivity changes will generally be greater the more the program period departs in time from the base period. Industry manpower factors. Table 3 provides the average annual changes in productivity that occurred between 1958 and 1970 for the total economy and in selected major sectors. Information on productivity change is available for the total economy and for most industry sectors. While it is obtainable for some individual industries, it is not available for many others. Productivity changes are not available by type of occupation. As a result, factor adjustment for productivity change must occur first in the industry factors, with the derived changes being used to adjust the occupational factors. Also, although industry factors are provided at three levels of aggrega tion-total economy, industry sector, and individual industry—productivity adjustments are recommended 2 This series is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, and is published annually in the July issue of the Survey o f Current Business. 3 Presented in Construction Review, various issues (U.S. Department of Commerce). Average annual Annual produc percentage tivity change in output adjustment per man-hour, calendar years 1958-70 Sector Total public and private sectors.............. Agriculture................... Private n o n fa rm .......... Mining .............. Construction . . Manufacturing . Transportation . . Communication Public utilities . T r a d e ................. Finance, insurance, and real estate . . . Other services . . . Government enterprises . . . 2.7 5.9 2.8 3.8 (1) 3.2 4.1 5.4 4.7 3.3 1.027 1.059 1.028 1.038 (1) 1.032 1.041 1.054 1.047 1.033 (1) (1) (1) (1) 2.6 1.026 XJ S in ce estim ates o f p ro d u c tiv ity change are gen e ra lly n o t p u blish ed fo r these sectors, it is suggested th a t t h e private n o n fa rm a d ju s tm e n t (1 .0 2 8 ) be used. only at the first two levels. Where industry detail is desired, the individual industry factors can be adjusted by the change in total sector productivity. In some few cases, if data on individual productivity changes are Table 4. available, these industries may be separately adjusted, with the remaining industry factors adjusted by the expected change in total sector productivity. Since short-term productivity forecasts are usually not available, the rates given in table 3 should generally be used to estimate productivity changes that might occur in the next few years. Of course, where individual industry detail is desired, these rates can be applied, but with less reliability, to each of the industries within the sector. For example, the rate of change in manufacturing productivity has averaged 3.2 percent over the 12 years from 1958 to 1970. This rate could be applied to each of the manufacturing industries. While it is not likely that productivity will change at the same rate in different industries such as electronics, food processing, or automobile production, this adjustment would prob ably minimize distortion due to productivity changes where more than 1 year is involved. The productivity adjustment of industry manpower factors simply involves dividing each of the factors by the appropriate productivity adjustment figure given in table 3. For example, manpower factors for manufactur ing would be adjusted to calendar year 1973 by dividing by 1.032. If the factors are used for calendar year 1974, they would be divided by 1.065 (1.032 x 1.032). On the other hand, if the program is for fiscal year 1973 the adjustment amount would reflect half the annual rate of Total program manpower factors (E m p lo y m e n t req u ire m en ts per b illio n do llars o f e x p e n d itu re s , calendar year 1 9 7 2 ) Factor Program Program Factor BY COMPONENT OF D EM A N D Total, public sector ......................................... Federal Government: D e fe n s e ...................................... N ondefense................................ Except N A S A ................ NASA ............................ State and local g overn m en t................ Except structures . . . . New construction . . . E d ucation .................................. Except structures . . . , New construction . . , Health, welfare,and sanitation Except structures . . . , New construction . . Other functions ................... Except functions . . . New construction . . Total, private s e c to r...................................... Personal consumption expenditures . . . . Durable goods ................................... Nondurable g o o d s ............................. F ood ...................................... S e rv ic e s ................................................ M e d ic a l................................... 90,054 . . . . . . . 74,193 66,592 68,846 62,411 101,283 112,265 59,908 108,803 114,957 63,541 94,966 95,313 56,620 90,028 116 789 59,049 69,009 70,310 71,248 76,630 77,529 63,811 81,678 Exports, merchandise and services...................... Merchandise o n l y ......................................... Gross private domestic fixed investment . . . . Producers' durable equipment ................ Private new construction ......................... 49,865 57,474 67,571 62,207 69,309 BY TYPE OF CONSTRUCTIO N Residential buildings: Single-family ................................... Multifamily ...................................... 77,223 75,860 Nonresidential buildings: Industrial ......................................... Office and c o m m e rc ia l................... Educational ...................................... Hospital and institutional ............. 62,488 61,394 62,407 60,703 Public utility structures: Telephone and teleg rap h ................ E le c tric ............................................... W a t e r ................................................... S e w e r................................................... Local tr a n s it...................................... Highways and streets................................... 53,749 60,266 59,871 53,992 44,772 57,802 Table 5. Industry manpower factors ( E m p lo y m e n t r e q u ir e m e n ts per b illio n d o lla rs o f e x p e n d itu r e s , b y m a jo r in d u s tr y s e c to r, c a le n d a r y ear 1 9 7 2 ) Program Total Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation, communication, and public utilities Trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Other services Government enterprises General government B Y C O M PO N EN T O F D E M A N D Total, public se cto r................................. Federal defense............................ Federal nondefense...................... Except N A S A ................... N A S A ................................. State and local government......... Except structures . . New construction .. E d u ca tio n .......................... Except structures . . New construction . . Health, welfare, and sanitation...................... Except structures . . New construction . . Other functions ............... Except structures . . New construction . . Total, private s e c to r.............................. Personal consumption expenditures .......................... Durable goods.................... Nondurable goods............. F o o d ........................ Services.............................. M edical.................... Exports, merchandise and services ........................ .......... Merchandise only ............. Gross private domestic fixed investm ent.............................. Producers' durable e q u ip m e n t.................... Private new construction . 90,054 74,193 66,592 68,846 62,411 101,283 112,265 59,908 108,803 114,957 63,541 585 560 193 191 318 622 679 503 428 415 595 624 382 393 427 349 834 640 1,622 491 435 1,049 3,567 1,126 2,742 3,088 1,281 5,038 2,392 22,234 2,896 1,225 22,466 13,261 15,566 10,596 8,513 30,167 10,774 9,830 17,915 9,219 8,008 21,185 2,754 3,212 2,729 2,639 4,880 3,480 3,472 4,359 3,336 3,265 4,445 2,765 1,802 2,559 2,581 3,795 3,201 2,778 5,993 2,044 1,489 7,220 876 515 742 785 852 1,116 1,171 1,118 775 759 1,038 5,754 4,076 8,692 8,998 11,387 5,731 6,039 5,625 1,411 2,326 4,997 841 516 1,268 1,380 1,200 895 1,014 539 875 924 546 59,027 46,438 36,678 40,244 8,182 69,592 84,250 — 87,328 96,111 — 94,966 95,313 56,620 90,028 116,789 59,049 69,009 1,438 1,573 483 523 636 479 4,153 570 484 1,199 969 864 1,887 646 3,133 1,025 19,713 6,765 3,856 22,556 3,504 13,191 12,268 20,273 10,382 10,447 16,329 18,607 3,316 3,255 3,824 3,300 3,567 4,395 5,525 3,430 3,265 4,653 3,726 3,786 5,735 17,777 1,076 1,089 1,024 1,278 1,553 1,160 3,199 12,192 13,256 4,947 6,122 7,304 5,965 14,378 1,060 1,139 504 788 1,014 543 1,220 55,560 57,959 70,310 71,248 76,630 77,529 63,811 81,678 4,430 591 9,041 16,149 1,234 695 554 417 767 365 392 194 874 330 462 475 1,498 407 15,439 28,903 22,196 16,907 3,472 7,096 5,523 3,782 4,014 4,520 7,742 2,334 20,575 32,531 34,235 32,860 2,200 13,413 3,812 1,129 1,580 1,626 7,095 4,758 17,704 2,730 3,430 3,760 38,060 51,857 1,399 835 905 867 2,118 924 49,865 57,474 5,978 7,997 1,194 1,560 435 454 23,472 30,831 6,724 5,246 5,204 6,347 1,325 1,229 4,780 3,215 753 595 67,571 705 775 15,684 30,079 3,996 10,698 1,292 3,741 601 13,102 8,164 1,095 1,081 2,765 4,554 621 555 62,207 69,309 400 1,007 499 1,083 302 28,310 39,406 20,098 4,017 4,457 Residential buildings: Single-fam ily...................... M u ltifa m ily ........................ 77,223 75,860 1,889 1,466 992 1,049 33,980 33,969 19,284 19,266 4,469 4,333 10,419 8,987 1,085 1,095 4,527 5,112 578 583 Nonresidentia! buildings: Industrial .......................... Office and commercial . . . Educational ...................... Hospital and institutional . 62,488 61,394 62,407 60,703 395 452 575 491 929 1,041 1,050 1,048 21,303 21,277 21,276 21,266 20,546 20,586 21,327 19,675 5,147 4,654 4,427 4,174 7,340 6,837 7,178 7,232 1,174 1,031 1,043 1,059 5,062 4,969 4,987 5,197 592 547 544 561 Public u tility structures: Telephone and telegraph . . E le c tric .............................. Water ................................. S e w e r................................. Local tr a n s it...................... Highways and streets ................. 53,749 60,266 59,871 53,992 44,772 57,802 449 613 248 465 224 384 1,429 1,051 1,031 1,274 747 2,538 18,410 18,422 18,403 18,393 18,310 22,970 18,694 24,214 25,283 20,428 13,850 13,584 3,722 4,475 3,771 3,681 2,421 4,581 5,137 5,283 4,851 3,330 3,425 5,257 976 1,046 1,049 1,054 843 1,236 4,433 4,642 4,741 4,883 4,444 6,695 499 520 494 484 508 557 — 56,175 83,762 — — — — — — BY TY P E OF C O NS TRU CTIO N NO TE: These data are summarized from requirements for 134 industry sectors shown in appendix D. _ _ - (Em ploym ent requirements per billion dollars of expenditures, by major occupational group, calendar year 1972) P ro g ra m T o ta l P ro fe ss io n al M a n a g e rs and and te c h n ic a l a d m in is tr a to r s C r a ft C le ric a l S ales- and w o rk e rs w o rk e rs k in d re d O p e ra tiv e s S e rv ic e w o rke rs L a b o re rs , F a rm e rs e x c e p t fa r m an d fa r m a n d m in e w o rk e rs w o rk e rs A rm e d F o rc e s BY COMPONENT OF DEMAND T o t a l , p u b lic s e c t o r ............................................................. F e d e r a l d e f e n s e ....................................................... F e d e r a l n o n d e f e n s e ............................................... E x c e p t N A S A ............................................ N A S A ............................................................. S t a t e a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t ............................. E x c e p t s tr u c tu r e s .................... N e w c o n s t r u c t i o n .................... E d u c a t i o n .................................................... E x c e p t s t r u c t u r e s .................... N e w c o n s t r u c t i o n .................... 90,050 74,200 66,600 68,850 62,400 101,250 112,250 59,850 108,800 114,950 63,550 17,000 7,550 15,750 15,400 19,600 34,150 42,950 5,550 58,950 64,550 5,550 4,200 3,500 4,550 4,750 4,950 7,150 7,350 5,400 4,800 4,150 6,250 10,400 7,850 21,550 22,700 12,150 16,500 19,350 7,500 14,250 15,400 8,200 900 950 1,050 1,050 1,600 1,450 1,400 2,000 1,100 1,050 2,350 7,200 7,550 7,950 8,150 8,850 11,500 8,150 17,550 7,350 6,700 18,550 6,550 8,850 7,300 7,550 10,700 9,250 8,350 13,500 7,500 7,250 14,200 7,500 2,050 6,250 6,900 2,700 16,150 20,750 1,050 12,150 13,450 1,100 2,500 2,000 1,800 1,900 1,650 4,450 3,200 7,050 2,350 2,000 7,000 400 500 400 400 200 650 750 300 300 350 300 94,950 95,300 56,600 90,050 116,800 59,050 69,000 70,300 71,250 76,650 77,550 63,800 81,650 24,000 25,000 5,450 10,450 15,700 5,450 6,050 6,300 3,650 3,650 2,700 10,150 22,300 4,950 4,700 5,550 10,050 13,650 5,000 7,900 8,400 10,450 10,600 10,100 5,400 4,650 16,000 16,350 7,150 18,250 29,300 7,250 11,400 12,000 11,400 11,350 11,100 12,950 15,300 1,550 1,500 1,700 1,550 1,700 1,850 5,150 5,800 8,650 8,050 5,550 2,350 5,600 7,550 6,300 16,150 16,750 11,350 16,950 9,550 7,600 13,850 6,200 5,400 6,750 3,800 10,350 9,650 13,950 9,700 9,100 14,150 13,700 13,050 18,000 19,450 15,050 4,800 5,500 25,700 27,100 1,000 15,750 29,600 1,000 8,300 10,450 1,600 6,350 10,200 18,050 22,650 3,750 3,400 5.350 6,600 5,000 7,100 3,550 3,000 3,250 3,500 4,150 2,350 1,300 1,150 1,250 300 850 1,350 300 3,400 3,700 400 7,500 13,300 1,000 550 33,400 33,400 — — — — - H e a lt h , w e lf a r e , a n d s a n i t a t i o n .............................................. E x c e p t s t r u c t u r e s .................... N e w c o n s t r u c t i o n .................... O t h e r f u n c t i o n s ......................................... E x c e p t s tru c tu re s .................... N e w c o n s t r u c t i o n .................... Total private s e c to r.............................................. P e rs o n a l c o n s u m p t io n e x p e n d itu r e s D u r a b le g o o d s ........................................... N o n d u r a b le g o o d s ................................... F o o d ................................................. S e r v i c e s .......................................................... M e d i c a l ............................................ — E x p o r t s , m e rc h a n d is e a n d services ....................................................... M e r c h a n d is e o n ly ................................... 7,950 8,700 2,050 2,350 7,550 9,150 13,250 16,600 2,300 1,500 2,850 2,900 4,750 6,350 6,650 9,200 3,300 18,200 16,700 1,300 6,300 450 5,900 4,950 6,400 6,300 10,400 7,800 3,950 2,250 12,400 22,450 18,800 14,600 1,400 1,100 2,700 9,250 250 600 77,200 75,850 4,300 5,100 7,300 6,900 8,200 9,500 3,000 2,750 26,650 26,450 13,050 11,800 1,150 1,150 12,450 11,200 1,100 950 62,500 61,400 62,400 60,700 5,500 5,700 5,700 6,600 6,500 6,100 6,150 6,050 8,550 8,200 8,150 8,500 2,400 2,250 2,200 2,100 18,050 18,000 17,800 17,650 13,550 13,350 14,500 12,050 1,150 1,150 1,100 1,100 6,550 6,350 6,450 6,300 250 300 350 350 53,750 60,200 59,650 54,000 44,750 57,750 5,350 6,050 5,650 5,450 5,350 5,550 5,100 5,700 5,500 5,200 4,150 4,300 7,050 7,750 7,700 6,700 5,600 7,000 1,700 1,850 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,850 15,050 16,200 17,500 15,050 13,450 16,600 14,050 16,450 15,800 14,200 11,000 13,950 1,000 1,100 1,000 1,000 750 1,000 4,050 4,800 4,600 4,650 3,050 7,250 250 300 150 250 150 250 49,850 57,500 4,500 5,200 67,650 5,550 62,200 69,300 4,650 4,750 - G ro s s p r iv a te d o m e s t ic fix e d i n v e s t m e n t .......................................................... P r o d u c e rs ' d u r a b le e q u i p m e n t ........................................... P r iv a te n e w c o n s t r u c t io n .................... BY TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION R e s id e n tia l b u ild in g s : S i n g l e - f a m i l y ............................................... M u l t i f a m i l y ................................................. - N o n r e s id e n tia l b u ild in g s : In d u s tr ia l .................................................... O f f i c e a n d c o m m e r c ia l ....................... E d u c a t i o n a l ................................................. H o s p ita l a n d i n s t i t u t i o n a l ................. — — - - P u b lic u t i l i t y s tru c tu re s : T e le p h o n e a n d t e l e g r a p h .................... E l e c t r i c .......................................................... W a te r ............................................................. Sew er ............................................................. L o c a l t r a n s i t ............................................... H ig h w a y s a n d s t r e e t s ............................................ N O TE : These data are summarized from the full occupational detail shown in appendix D. Occupational factors have been rounded to nearest 50. — — — — - change, and would be 1.016. Occupational manpower factors. Since changes in pro ductivity are only available by major sector, productivity adjustments must first be made to the industry man power factors to provide a basis for adjusting occupa tional factors. For any given program, adjusting the industry manpower factors will provide a new total of the employment required per billion dollars. This ad justed total employment should be compared to the unadjusted total for the program. The ratio of the adjusted employment to the unadjusted total may be viewed as a percent or scaling factor which is simply multiplied by each of the occupational manpower factors for the program. Each program would, of course, have different scaling factors, which will produce ad justed totals of the occupational employment required per billion dollars. Employment calculations Estimating employment requirements is now simply a matter of multiplying the price-adjusted expenditures, expressed in billions of 1972 dollars, by the produc tivity-adjusted set of factors. Five different factor tables are provided which give varying degrees of employment detail. These tables provide three different levels of employment aggregation. If only the total amount of job opportunities generated by a Federal program is desired, it can be obtained by using table 4. In this case the price-adjusted program total would be multiplied by a single productivity-adjusted factor representing that pro gram. If employment requirements are desired by major industry sector, such as agriculture, mining, or manu facturing, table 5 should be used. In this case, the total of price-adjusted expenditures would be multiplied by 10 adjusted factors representing the employment re quirements in each industry sector for that program. Similarly, in order to estimate employment requirements by occupational group, one would multiply total pro gram expenditures in 1972 dollars by nine adjusted occupational factors from table 6. If full industry and occupational detail is desired it can be obtained by using factor tables D-l and D-3 in appendix D. Use of these tables, as with tables 4-6, involves simply multiplying a program total, in billions of 1972 dollars, by factors in that program which have been adjusted for productivity changes. Examples of how the factors can be used with different types of programs are provided in the next chapter. Total employment requirements per billion dollars o f program expenditures, 1972. Table 4 shows the total employment requirements per billion dollars of expendi tures for various purchasing sectors or factor programs. These requirements are based upon a cross-section of the expenditures that each purchasing sector made in 1970 and therefore assume that expenditure patterns will be largely maintained in the period in which the factors are used. The factors reflect 1972 prices and productivity levels. Manpower factors by major industry sector. Table 5 provides a breakdown by major industry sector of the total employment requirements per billion dollars of expenditures for each program. This employment in cludes both the direct jobs required in producing the final product and the indirect employment required in supporting industries which produce the raw materials, fuels, transportation, trade, and other services embodied in the final product. The factors are stated in 1972 price and productivity levels. Manpower requirements by occupational group. Table 6 shows the employment requirements per billion dollars of expenditures by major occupational groups, stated in 1972 prices and productivity levels. These occupational requirements include both the direct and indirect jobs required for a program. Chapter 3. Illustrations of Uses of Manpower Factors This chapter presents three different applications of manpower factors to proposed programs to demonstrate how the factors can be used. These include a case where a Federal program has already been studied and factors are directly available, one where a program has not been covered but where other factors may be reasonably substituted, and, third, a case where none of the factors currently available would be considered suitable. Mili tary expenditures were selected to illustrate the first case since defense program factors principally describe this program’s outlays. Education revenue sharing outlays were selected for the second case, and occupational safety and health regulations for the third. In the examples given, factors are applied by main industry sector and occupational group (tables 5 and 6). If a total employment estimate for a program is desired, table 4 factors would be used. Detailed industry and occupa tional estimates would require using appendix D-l and D-3 tables. M ilitary expenditures, fiscal year 1974 budget proposal Program analysis This program is defined to cover all Department of Defense (DOD) military outlays planned for fiscal year (FY) 1974, including civil defense, housing provided for military families, and deliveries under foreign military aid. Expenditures for DOD civil functions, such as the development of water resources by the Corps of Engi neers, are excluded. Also excluded are Atomic Energy Commission outlays, frequently defined as part of national defense. The analysis of economic effects was confined to outlays. While the impact of defense programs on the supply of manpower in certain age groups and on manpower training is obviously substantial, it is beyond the scope of the Factbook. The first step in this analysis was to examine military expenditure aggregates in the FY 1974 Federal budget to determine which DOD accounting adjustments, if any, would have the effect of overstating or understating employment requirements. DOD military expenditures were estimated at a total of $78,200,000,000 in the 1974 budget proposal. However, miscellaneous receipts of $95 million were used to offset total expenditures in thif^stimate. Since this subtraction reduces total outlays, it has the effect of causing actual employment requirements to be understated. This amount was therefore added back to the total. Other accounting adjustments were not judged to be substan tial, so no further changes were made. A total of $78,295,000,000 of military expenditures in FY 1974 was accepted for the calculation of employment requirements. This total was examined to determine the amounts to be spent by various sectors of the economy or, in our analysis, the amounts to be used with different factor programs. Military outlays can be divided into three different expenditure groups: 1) direct purchases of goods and services by DOD, 2) personal consumption purchases resulting from transfer payments to persons, which consist almost completely of retirement pay, and 3) the spending of grants-in-aid to State and local government institutions. Military outlays for FY 1974 were estimated to be distributed among these economic sectors as follows (in millions of dollars): T o t a l ........................................................................$78,295 Purchases of goods and s e r v ic e s ............................................ 73,195 Transfer payments .................................................................... 4,900 G ra n ts -in -a id .................................................................................... 200 Factor selection The next step was to select the most appropriate factor programs to use in estimating the employment effects of each of the three expenditure groups. The direct purchases, transfers, and grants were examined to determine if it would be desirable and possible to further distribute these amounts to various programs within the Federal, State and local, and personal consumption demand categories. In the case of direct military purchases, factors for the total of national defense outlays are available. As previously noted, these factors are based upon 1970 purchasing patterns. While these distributions tend to be relatively stable over a few years, some moderate distortion would occur in this case. The use of total defense program factors to estimate 1974 defense employment requirements would tend to understate requirements in such industries as shipbuilding and to overstate them in others such as ammunition. Also, these factors include the employment requirements of Atomic Energy Commission purchases as well as those of DOD, while the program being considered is only DOD. Use of these factors would result in some overstatement of employment require ments in a few industries, including chemicals and electric power generation, but not to a significant degree. However, since DOD employment represented by far the largest weight in constructing these factors, it was decided that the defense program factors would provide a good measure of the DOD impact. In the case of transfer payments, which consist primarily of retirement pay, overall personal consump tion purchases were selected as most representative. It was assumed, for simplicity, that all transfer payments would be spent on consumption. More realistically, a somewhat smaller amount would be spent, and a program that was more closely oriented toward the purchases of older or retired persons would be more appropriate than overall consumption expenditures. At this time such a program is not available. Grants consist largely of research contracts with State and local universities. Although the program factors selected should approximate the purchasing patterns of these institutions in fulfilling DOD contracts, there is no State or local program that adequately describes this activity. Since the factors given for State and local education are weighted heavily by the employment requirements for elementary and secondary public edu cation, these factors were rejected. The total purchases for all State and local government functions were ultimately selected as providing the best available ap proximation of DOD grant effects at this time. While this choice was not entirely satisfactory, the amount of grant funds is relatively small and would not signifi cantly distort DOD employment requirements. Data adjustment At this point the three expenditure groups were examined to determine their relationship to calendar year (CY) 1972 prices. The FY 1974 budget proposal includes expected pay increases as well as estimated increases in most program costs. This budget amount was, therefore, assumed to be in FY 1974 dollars. In order to use these amounts with the factors provided, the expenditures had to be deflated to CY 1972 dollars. Separate price deflators were estimated for Federal purchases, transfers, and grants. The historical implicit price deflators were considered and rejected as under stating price increases in recent months. Rough estimates were made for changes from CY 1972 to FY 1974. The price increases for the three sectors for this lH-year period were estimated as follows: Percent Federal Government purchases ................................................ 10.1 Personal consumption expenditures .......................................... 8.0 State and local government purchases ......................................8.7 It should be noted that the GNP implicit deflators are more comprehensive than the program being considered. Separate deflators are not available for the defense and nondefense portions of Federal purchases, so the total was used. While more detailed deflators are available for compensation, construction, and the total of other purchases of the Federal government, they were not used. Defense factors, like other program factors, are based on total outlays which include construction and government compensation. In the cases of consumption expenditures and State and local government purchases, the total program factors were being used so that overall deflators were appropriate. When these deflators were applied to the three expenditure groups, they adjusted expenditures to the following, in millions of CY 1972 dollars: T o t a l ........................................................................$71,201 Purchases of goods and s e r v ic e s ............................................66,480 Transfer payments .................................................................... 4,537 G ra n ts -in -a id .....................................................................................184 Factor adjustment The next step was to adjust the industry and occupational manpower factors given by major industry sector for estimated productivity changes from CY 1972 to FY 1974. Table 7 illustrates the adjustment for productivity change of the industry manpower factors. As indicated, this adjustment is carried over to the occupational manpower factors since productivity esti mates are not available by occupation. Industry manpower factors. Since productivity projec tions were not available, estimates of the productivity changes that were likely to occur from CY 1972 to FY 1974 were obtained by assuming that past rates of increase in each industry sector would continue. These annual adjustments, given by industry sector in table 3, were converted to a l^-year period, as shown in the first column of table 7. The manpower factors for each of the three program areas (defense, total personal consump tion, and total State and local government) were obtained from table 5 and were then divided by these productivity adjustments. Government employment was not adjusted since, by national income definition, government is assumed to have a fixed productivity over Table 7. Military expenditures: Industry manpower factors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year 1974 Sector T otal Productivity adjustment C Y 1 9 7 2 -F Y 1974 State and local government purchases Defense purchases Consumption purchases - 72,848 66,886 99,784 — 1.090 1.058 1.042 1.049 26,410 514 361 1,081 14,839 66,886 4,064 524 839 14,718 30,192 571 788 4,835 10,271 1.072 1.050 2,996 1,716 5,152 19,595 3,246 3,049 1.042 1.042 1.039 494 3,912 497 46,438 33,390 13,048 3,658 16,990 1,346 — 1,071 5,500 861 69,592 — 69,592 ...................................................... Private e m p lo y m e n t............................................... Agriculture ................................................... M in in g ............................................................ Construction ............................................... Manufacturing ............................................ T ransportation, communication, and public utilities ................................ T rade ............................................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate ............................................... Other services............................................... Government e nterp rises............................. Public employment ............................................... Military ......................................................... Civilian ......................................................... Adjusted factors (employment requirements per billion dollars) — 1.000 1.000 time. The rate of change in the total private nonfarm economy was used to estimate productivity changes in construction, finance, and services. The productivity adjustments used and the adjusted manpower factors are given in table 7. — — their respective columns of adjusted factors given in tables 7 and 8. The program amounts in billions of dollars were: Defense purchases ............................................................... $66,480 Consumption purchases ........................................................... 4.537 State and local government purchases ................................. 0.184 Occupational manpower factors. At this stage the adjusted total employment per billion dollars of expen Industry employment requirements. The results of ditures in each program was compared with the un multiplying these dollar amounts by their respective adjusted total. The ratio of the adjusted to the un adjusted total provided the basis for adjusting the occupational factors for productivity change. For Table 8. Military expenditures: Occupational manpower example, the total employment per billion dollars in factors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year 1974 defense was adjusted from 74,193 to 72,848, forming a (E m p lo y m e n t req u ire m en ts per b illio n do llars) ratio of 98.19 percent. The ratios for personal consump Adjusted factors tion and State and local government were 95.13 and State and 98.52 respectively. Consump Occupational group local gov Defense tion The factors for the occupational groups given in table ernment purchases purchases purchases 6 were then scaled by these ratios. That is, the factors given for defense were multiplied by 98.19 percent or by 66,877 Total ...................... 72,857 99,752 0.9819; those for consumption were multiplied by Professional and technical 0.9513; and those for State and local government were w o r k e r s ............................... 7,413 5,993 33,645 multiplied by 0.9852. The adjusted occupational factors Managers and administrators . 3,437 7,991 7,044 7,708 Clerical workers ...................... 11,416 16,256 are given in table 8. Employment calculations The next step was to multiply the adjusted program expenditures, expressed in billions of 1972 dollars, by Sales w o rk e rs ............................ Craft and kindred workers . . Operatives ................................ Service workers ...................... Nonfarm laborers ................... F a rm e rs ...................................... Armed Forces ......................... 933 7,413 8,690 2,013 1,964 491 32,795 5,518 7,230 12,414 9,941 2,854 3,520 - 1,429 11,330 9,113 15,911 4,384 640 - columns of adjusted factors in table 7 are given in table 9. These figures may be used as estimates of the employment required by the FY 1974 military budget. However, an additional adjustment could be made. Since the budget contains planned levels for military and civilian manpower at the end of the fiscal year, average Table 9. levels could be derived directly and substituted for the calculated amounts in the public sector. The levels that were estimated directly from budget manpower figures amount to an average of about 925,000 for civilian employees in the United States and 2,300,000 for military forces. When these estimates were substituted for the calculated amounts the final estimates of Military expenditures: Calculated employment requirements by sector, fiscal year 1974 (In thousands) Total Defense purchases Consump tion purchases State and local gov ernment purchases T o t a l.......................... 5,164.9 4,843.0 303.5 18.4 Private em p loym en t................. A g riculture..................... Mining ............................. Construction ................. Manufacturing .............. Transportation, communication, and public u tilitie s ..................... T r a d e ............................... Finance, in surance, and real e s ta te ................. Other services................. Government enterprises................. Public employment ................. Military .......................... C iv ilian ............................. 2,064.9 52.7 26.5 76.6 1,055.2 1,755.8 34.2 24.0 71.9 986.5 303.5 18.4 2.4 3.8 66.8 5.6 .1 .1 .9 1.9 223.2 203.6 199.2 114.1 23.4 88.9 .6 .6 49.6 338.2 32.8 260.1 16.6 77.1 .2 1.0 39.3 3,100.0 2,219.8 880.2 33.0 3,087.2 2,219.8 867.4 6.1 .2 12.8 — 12.8 Sector — — - Table 10. Military expenditures: Calculated employment requirements by occupational group, fiscal year 1974 (In thousands) Occupational group Total ........................ Professional and technical workers .............. Managers and adm inistrators..................... Clerical w o rk e rs ........................ Sales w o rk e rs .............. .......... Craft and kindred w o rk e rs ................................. Operatives .................................. Service workers ........................ Nonfarm laborers..................... F a rm e rs ...................................... Armed Forces1 .......................... Total Defense purchases Consump tion pur- State and local gov ernment purchases 5,285.0 4,963.2 303.4 18.4 526.2 492.8 27.2 6.2 266.1 567.2 87.3 228.5 512.4 62.0 36.3 51.8 25.0 1.3 3.0 .3 527.7 635.7 181.8 144.3 48.7 2,300.0 492.8 577.7 133.8 130.6 32.6 2,300.0 32.8 56.3 45.1 12.9 16.0 - 2.1 1.7 2.9 .8 .1 - 1 Planned level has been substituted for calculated level. employment requirements became (in thousands): Consump - State and local govern- tion purchases ment purchases Total Defense purchases 5,304 4,981 304 19 1,756 3,225 2,300 925 304 - 6 13 — 13 Private ................... 2,066 P u b lic ....................... 3,238 Military . . . 2,300 Civilian . . . . 938 Occupational employment requirements. When the same program expenditures were multiplied by the adjusted occupational factors from table 8, the results were as shown in table 10. Differences in the employment estimates calculated with the industry and occupational factors result from rounding the occupational factors to the nearest 50, and excluding all amounts under 50. Education revenue sharing, fiscal year 1974 budget proposal Program analysis The FY 1974 budget contains a special revenue sharing proposal intended to replace approximately 30 separate educational programs with flexible funding for the following major purposes: elementary and secondary education, school assistance in federally affected areas, education for the handicapped, vocational and adult education, and the basic school lunch program. This proposal is designed to permit some flexibility in transferring funds among these functions, while allowing considerable freedom in the way in which funds for a particular function are spent. The total outlays proposed for education revenue sharing in FY 19744 are estimated to be $1.9 billion, with funds earmarked in six categories to insure that minimum levels of spending are maintained for certain purposes. The amounts specified, in thousands of dollars, are as follows: T o t a l ..................................................................$1,936,699 Elementary and secondary education ...................... 1,190,639 Education for the h a n d ic a p p e d ............................................ 15,759 School assistance in federally affected a r e a s ................. 192,500 Vocational and adult e d u c a tio n ....................................... 238,770 Other (e d u c a tio n ).................................................... 55,031 Basic school lunch p ro g r a m ................................................ 244.000 The proposal is designed to encompass existing pro grams, so that local education agencies do not suffer from a shortage of grant funds before passage. Factor selection Since this proposal is new and provides greater flexibility and freedom to local education agencies in their disbursement of Federal funds for education, no existing set of factors specifically covers this program. However, it is likely that this funding, if approved, will be spent largely as designated since it replaces other funds for these purposes. It is also likely that the ways in which this money is spent will, for the most part, approximate past expenditure patterns for these func tions. It was, therefore, decided that actual expenditures stemming from education revenue sharing would prob ably resemble the usual patterns of State and local government spending for education. Existing program factors for education were then compared with the proposed allocations for education revenue sharing. An examination of the amounts in the six revenue sharing categories indicated a somewhat different distribution of funds than had occurred pre viously in overall State and local spending for education. This appeared to be a significant problem only in the case of school lunch assistance, to which a relatively higher proportion of funds was allocated, compared to the previous overall pattern. Use of the current factors for State and local education would therefore somewhat understate requirements for farmers, food manufac turing employees, and cafeteria workers, while slightly overstating requirements for teachers and other educa tional employees. However, since both the revenue sharing proposal and the factor program for education would generate requirements predominantly for educa tional personnel, it was felt that these factors provided a reasonable approximation of the proposal’s employment effects. In addition, since the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which the program primarily replaces, has included only very small amounts of new construc tion in recent years, it seemed reasonable to further refine factor selection and use the factor for State and local education except structures. This decision was reinforced by the current decline in public school enrollments on a nationwide basis, which has resulted in a significant decline in construction of educational facilities. 4Department o f Labor and Health, Education, and Welfare Appropriations for 1974, Hearings, 93d Congress, (1973) pt. 1, pp. 66-67. It was, therefore, decided that the planned functional distribution of educational revenue sharing outlays could best be considered as a single program (the total outlays) and that this amount could be adequately represented by the program factors for State and local education minus structures. Data adjustment Factor adjustment Before the factors could be applied to the adjusted outlays, they also had to be adjusted to reflect the productivity changes expected between 1972 and FY 1974. Table 11 shows the productivity adjustments of the industry manpower factors which are described below. Because the revenue sharing proposal was expected to cover FY 1974 outlays for previously existing programs, it was necessary to adjust program outlays to reflect 1972 prices. To match the factors being used, an estimated deflator was required for State and local government purchases for education, except structures. After examining historical implicit price deflators for State and local government, an estimated deflator was developed on the basis of past patterns of price behavior in this area coupled with anticipated price changes between 1972 and FY 1974. The adjustment for FY 1974 outlays is shown below: Industry manpower factors. As in the previous example of defense purchases, the productivity adjustment from 1972 to FY 1974 was accomplished by assuming that past rates of increase in each industry sector would continue in this 18-month period. The productivity rate for the private nonfarm sector was used for construc tion, finance, and services. It should be noted again that, by national income conventions, direct government employment is assumed to have no productivity change from year to year. Table 11 shows the 1972 factors by major sector, the estimated productivity adjustments between 1972 and FY 1974, and the adjusted 1974 factors. Combined total in FY 1974 prices (thousands of d o lla r s ) .................................................$1,936,699 Implicit price deflator (1972 = 1 0 0 ) ................................... 109.6 Combined total in CY 1972 prices (thousands of d o lla r s )................................................ 1,767,061 Occupational manpower factors. The occupational factors were adjusted by using the ratio of adjusted total employment to the total employment unadjusted for Table 11. Education revenue sharing: Industry manpower factors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year 1974 Sector T o t a l .......................... Private employment: A griculture..................... Mining ............................. Construction ................. M an u fa c tu rin g .............. Transportation, communcation, and public utilities ..................... T r a d e ............................... Finance, in surance, and real estate ................. Other services................. Government enterprises................. Public employment: State and local governm ent.............. 1972 factors (employment requirements per billion dollars) Productivity adjustment CY 1 9 7 2 FY 1974 Adjusted 1974 factors (employment requirements per billion dollars) 114,957 - 114,026 415 435 1,225 8,008 1.090 1.058 1.042 1.049 381 411 1,176 7,634 3,265 1,489 1.072 1.050 3,046 1,418 759 2,326 1.042 1.042 728 2,232 924 1.039 889 96,111 1.000 96,111 Table 12. Education revenue sharing: Occupational manpower factors adjusted for productivity change, fiscal year 1974 Employment requirements per billion dollars Table 14. Education revenue sharing: Calculated employment requirements by occupational group, fiscal year 1974 Occupational group Occupational group T o t a l ......................... Professional and technical w o r k e r s ................................ Managers and administrators ................... Clerical w o r k e r s ...................... Salesw orkers............................ Craft and kindred w o r k e r s ................................ Operatives ................................ Service workers ...................... Nonfarm laborers ................... F a rm e rs ...................................... 1972 factors Adjusted 1974 factors 114,950 114,026 64,550 64,031 4,150 15,400 1,050 4,117 15,276 1,042 6,700 7,250 13,450 2,000 350 6,646 7,192 13,342 1,984 347 productivity change. The total employment per billion dollars for State and local education, except structures, was adjusted from 114,957 to 114,026, forming a ratio of 99.2 percent. The factors for the occupational groups in table 6 were then scaled by this ratio, with the adjusted factors shown in table 12.5 Employment requirements T o t a l ................................................... 201,495 Professional and technical workers ............. Managers and adm inistrators......................... Clerical workers ............................................... Sales w o rk e rs ...................................................... Craft and kindred workers ............................ Operatives ......................................................... Service workers ............................................... Nonfarm laborers ............................................ F a rm e rs ............................................................... 113,149 7,275 26,994 1,841 11,744 12,709 23,577 3,506 613 program outlays for FY 1974, deflated into 1972 dollars, were multiplied by the adjusted factors. The total employment requirements estimated for this pro gram in FY 1974 were 201,490 employees of all types. However, it is likely that little or no new employment will be required by this proposal since revenue sharing funds primarily represent a substitute for grants pro vided in the past to local education agencies. Industry employment requirements. Following the pro cedure outlined above, the employment requirements by major sector were estimated as shown in table 13. Employment calculations At this point, the manpower requirements of this program could be estimated for FY 1974. Proposed Table 13. Education revenue sharing: Calculated employment requirements by sector, fiscal year 1974 Sector Occupational employment requirements. The calculated occupational employment requirements are given in table 14. Occupational safety and health, fiscal year 1974 budget proposal Employment requirements Program analysis T o t a l ......................................................... 201,490 Private employment: Agriculture ............................................ M in in g ...................................................... Construction ......................................... Manufacturing ...................................... T ra n s p o rta tio n ...................................... T rade ...................................................... Finance ................................................... Services ................................................... Government enterp rises...................... 673 726 2,078 13,490 5,382 2,506 1,286 3,944 1,571 Public employment: State and local g o v e rn m e n t................ 169,834 5 Differences in totals in tables 11 and 12, and 13 and 14, arise from rounding of occupational factors. The Federal occupational safety and health program is presented as an example of one whose activities are not reasonably approximated by an existing factor program. This program is administered by the Occupa tional Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) in the Department of Labor with support from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in the Department of Health, Education and Welfare, and from the Occupational Safety and Health Review Com mission. OSHA is responsible for setting workplace safety and health standards, and for enforcing them by inspecting plants, issuing citations, and assessing penalties for violations. OSHA also grants funds to States according to matching formulas for the develop ment and operation of State safety and health programs. NIOSH conducts background research to identify health hazards in the workplace and develops criteria for standards. Both agencies offer safety and health training programs for public and private personnel. Private firms are required to take necessary actions to meet specified safety and health standards or face penalties for noncompliance. In FY 1974, OSHA is budgeted for outlays of $64 million, NIOSH for about $25 million, and the Review Commission for about $5 million, for a total outlay of about $94 million. Since NIOSH is funded through the appropriation for “Preventive Health Services” , its out lays were not separately obtainable but were estimated from obligations. Almost half of the Federal funds for the program are to be transferred to States as grants while most of the remainder will be used for Federal salaries and administrative expenses. The areas o f direct manpower impact resulting from these expenditures would be the Federal sector, which hires researchers, inspectors, and program administra tors, and the State governments which will spend the Federal grant money, plus matching funds, to employ State inspectors and administrators. However, the princi pal manpower impact of the program would occur in the private sector which will be required to spend additional amounts of money for safety and health improvements. These outlays would vary by industry and by the safety conditions of each establishment affected by OSHA standards. Factor selection In attempting to find factor programs to represent this activity, it is obvious that the employment require ments of these private purchases cannot be covered. Although private expenditures represent the area of greatest employment impact, there is no comprehensive information available on the kinds of purchases required under this program in the past, and it does not appear that any existing factor program would approximate these purchases. Information on the private purchases stimulated or required by OSHA standards could only be obtained through extensive and time-consuming surveys. While some approximation might be made of the employment effects of Federal and State outlays for administration, they represent a relatively small part of this program’s overall employment requirements. We would, therefore, conclude that employment require ments estimates cannot be made for this program through the use of existing manpower factors. Appendix A. Methods Used to Derive Manpower Factors Industry manpower factors for each program were developed initially from an interindustry employment model system. An interindustry model takes the final purchases of a particular Federal program, such as defense, or an economic demand category, such as personal consumption expenditures, and translates these into industry-by-industry production requirements which are necessary to produce the final product. For example, the purchase of single-family housing requires employment, not only in the construction industry, but in all major building component industries such as lumber, heating and plumbing products, stone, clay, and glass products and in all supplying industries such as metals and basic mining activities. The interindustry model, through its input coefficients, provides a mathe matical solution of the material and service inputs required through all stages of production of a final product. The only information needed to use this model is a list o f final purchases made to carry out a particular program. These purchases are then converted by the model into the production required through all stages in all industries. Employment-output ratios or productivity factors are used to convert these gross industry outputs into the employment required in each industry. The manpower factors calculated through this model include the direct employment required in the producing in dustry and the indirect employment required in all supporting industries providing material or service inputs to the producing industry, The industry manpower factors in this study were derived in the following manner. First, lists of final purchases, or “bills of goods” were prepared for each program or demand category. Compiling these bills of goods frequently involved very detailed analyses of the program sectors. These purchases were used with an interindustry model for 1970 In which the sector relationships had been developed in 1963 dollars. Program purchases for 1970 were, therefore, deflated to 1963 dollars to be compatible with the model. The bills, of goods were then applied as inputs to the model to produce the output requirements o f all industries through ail stages of production. Output requirements were next converted to the total em ployment required in each industry. To make this generated employment comparable for all programs, it was put on a “per billion dollar” basis by dividing generated employment by total expenditures for each program or demand component. The factors for each program, therefore, implicitly assume that a billion dollars is spent on a weighted cross-section o f all purchases for that program in 1970, . At this stage, the manpower factors represented the employment, given 3970 productivity levels, that would be generated by a billion dollars o f purchases for each program or demand category, stated in 1963 dollars. The factors were divided by price changes from 1963 to 1972 in each industry sector and by estimates o f industry productivity changes from 1970 to 1972 in order to convert them to 1972 price and productivity levels. The factors for public employment were not generated by the model but were derived through study of the particular program or by using directly available data on employment in the particular government agency. The industry employment requirements for each program were next used as inputs to the industryoccupational matrix, which distributed these require ments into 160 occupational categories. The results were then summed for each occupation. This distribution was based on the estimated 1970 occupational patterns given in the occupational model. The occupational levels obtained were then used to create the occupational manpower factors, or the occupational requirements for each billion dollars o f program expenditures in 1972, Appendix B. Limitations of Manpower Factors The development of manpower factors for Federal programs is just getting underway, and there are major limitations and gaps in the current estimating system which are discussed below, These problem areas are grouped into the following broad categories: limitations of coverage, limitations of the model system, and limitations of the employment requirements estimates themselves. Limitations of coverage Limited coverage o f Federal programs. As already noted, one of the major gaps in this presentation of manpower factors is the limited number of Federal programs studied to date. Past work has dealt with major demand components of the economy, with subsectors, or with programs covered only as special needs arose. Lists of purchases, or bills of goods, were developed for broad categories of demand such as Federal Government purchases, State and local government purchases, per sonal consumption expenditures, exports, and business expenditures for producers’ durable equipment. Federal Government coverage was limited to defense, space, and all other nondefense programs combined. Work is now underway, with the financial sponsorship of the National Science Foundation, on the manpower requirements related to Federal grants for pollution control. A few special studies have examined sectors of the economy other than the Federal Government. These include State and local government purchases for education, health, welfare, and sanitation, and other State and local functions. Also, for a number of years, the BLS has worked on a program of construction labor require ments, which has developed employment estimates for various types of construction, such as highways, housing, and sewers. Im bility to estimate the effects on manpower supply. The existing system for analyzing manpower effects, as indicated, is demand oriented. Current factors accord ingly represent just a basis for estimating requirements for labor and do not provide supply effects. Adequate coverage, therefore, is not possible for some Federal actions, such as immigration policies, where supply effects are predominant. And, more importantly, lack of supply data precludes a full assessment of the employ ment impact of any Federal program. Manpower factors do not specifically identify the groups affected. Manpower factors are calculated on a national basis and do not identify employment requirements by region or by demographic characteristic such as age, sex, or race. In many cases, Federal actions do not affect manpower uniformly in different regions. For example, defense and space program cutbacks affected employ ment most severely on the West Coast due to the relative importance of defense industries in that region. And, in many cases, Federal policies or programs are designed to affect disadvantaged groups. Thus, with the current system of manpower analysis, the effects can be shown by industry and occupation but not by particular age or socioeconomic group. Limitations of the model system Aggregate industry classification. The analytical frame work used to derive manpower factors divides all purchases into 134 industry sectors. Most sectors include more than one kind of product or service and the inputs to these sectors reflect the production and employment requirements of all of these products. However, the interindustry model can not differentiate between the products or services within a particular sector, and a specific purchase will create requirements for employ ment in all industries supporting the overall sector, even though some of the requirements may not be related to the product purchased. The average requirements for each sector will generally be close to the actual requirements for a single purchase since the industry sectors are defined to include related or homogeneous products. Problems will exist, however, where program purchases are specialized. For example, the food prod ucts sector in the interindustry framework consists of all of the food products industries. Consequently, using the interindustry model to determine the manpower require ments of purchases of canned or frozen goods will generate employment in all food products industries including meatpacking, soft drinks, and dairy products. Manpower factors do not include multiplier and accel erator effects. Manpower factors presented here include the primary employment required in the industries producing the goods or services actually purchased for a particular program and the supporting labor required to produce the materials, parts, services, and other items embodied in these final products. They do not include the multiplier effect, which generates additional jobs as workers spend their earnings for consumer goods and services. Also excluded is the accelerator effect, which would increase jobs when businesses expand their investment in plant and equipment in response to the increased demand for output. Manpower factors describe average and not incremental employment requirements. Manpower factors reflect the average employment required to produce the total annual output of each industry. They are based upon overall or average interindustry relationships, produc tivity ratios, and occupational distributions for a parti cular year. As such, they would be most appropriately applied to estimation of the employment requirements of the total purchases from an industry. In most instances, however, these factors will be used to deter mine the employment requirements of a change in a given program or of an increment in purchases from a particular industry. For this purpose, marginal or incre mental manpower factors would be more appropriate. Average manpower factors imply that employment will increase in proportion to the increase in output. At any given time, average and marginal employment requirements are likely to be different. This is true because the level of operation of the economy and of the industries involved will affect employment require ments. If productive resources were not fully utilized, output could be intially expanded with little or no increase in employment. If the economy were operating at a high level, employment requirements would increase up to the point where plant capacity was fully utilized. Occupational estimates would be further distorted by marginal changes in occupational requirements. Firms do not normally change the level of employment of each occupation equally when changing the level of output. The level of employment of nonproduction workers generally responds less to changes in the level of output than does the level of employment of production workers. Thus, the use of average occupational patterns in these applications tends to overstate the impact on employment of nonproduction workers while underesti mating the impact on production workers. Limitations of the employment requirements estimates Timing problem. Estimates of employment requirements do not deal with the timing of employment reduction or growth. In the case of shifts in spending priorities or other policy changes, the time gap between reduction in employment in one area and growth in another is important. But the lag between program changes and the resulting production and employment changes is not currently considered in these estimates. The considera tion of many policy questions would benefit from good estimates of the timing of any employment effects. Comparability problems. Program factors are not com pletely comparable and therefore comparisons of job requirements for different programs must be made with caution. As developed by the model system, manpower estimates refer to the total number of jobs required without distinction between full- and part-time jobs. Since full- and part-time jobs have equal weight, pro grams with more part-time jobs will appear to have greater job requirements. Programs that draw heavily on the retail trade and personal services sectors, where part-time jobs are concentrated, would be most affected. Also, programs in which average pay levels are high will employ fewer people, all else being equal, than programs having lower pay levels. Further, manpower factors include the jobs required in both the private and public sectors. In general, programs with a high proportion of their outlays going directly to public employment will show greater employment requirements than those whose expenditures are concentrated in the private sector. This occurs because purchases from the private sector embody not only wages, but taxes, depreciation, and profits. While these factors also generate jobs, they are not included in the program estimates. 1970 pattern o f distribution o f purchases. The 1972 manpower factors were constructed by adjusting the 1970 industry requirements of each program for produc tivity and price changes to 1972. As such, the relative distribution of purchases in 1970 is implicitly embodied in the 1972 factors. Utilization of these factors for other years assumes that the pattern of program purchases remains fairly stable. Purchasing patterns, given the levels of industry aggregation used, are relatively stable over a few years. However, when factors are applied to longer periods or when the relative distribution of program purchases is expected to change substantially, distortions in the employment estimates will occur in some industries.1 Variation in number o f recipients. Another problem in estimating employment requirements is the variation in the number of recipients of a Federal expenditure. Expenditures for a particular program may be concen trated in a few establishments or they may be dispersed among many, with different resulting manpower effects. For example, if a billion dollars of purchases by the Federal Government is spread over many individual establishments, the increased output required in each establishment may be absorbed with little or no increase in employment, the only effect being an increase in total hours worked or in output per man-hour. However, an equal amount spent in the same industries but in fewer establishments is likely to require more new employ ment. Since the existing analytical framework is national in scope and treats each industry in total, differences of this type cannot be determined. 1An extreme case which has been examined was the change in defense purchases from mid-1965, just prior to the Vietnam buildup, to the peak in 1968. Even with defense purchases greatly expanded, many industries, including electronics and communications equipment and shipbuilding and repair, con tinued to receive about the same proportion of defense funds. However, the proportion o f ordnance purchases doubled and relative requirements for transportation services increased sub stantially. While most programs will not change this drastically in a short-run period, all programs should be reexamined after 3 to 5 years and the factors used should be adjusted or recalculated if necessary. Substitution effects. A particularly severe problem in manpower assessment arises from the difficulty of determining whether a proposed expenditure by the Federal Government is really a net addition to an existing level of expenditures or whether it is offset by a reduction in expenditures by the recipient. This problem affects programs where final purchases are made, not by the Federal Government, but by other sectors of the economy. For example, grants to State or local govern ments may, in part, be substituted for expenditures normally made by the State or local government. Or, in the case of transfer payments to persons, the use of this income may be offset by reductions in normal expendi tures by the recipient. Thus, Medicare payments may, at least in part, substitute for purchases that otherwise would have been made by individuals from their own funds. Use of manpower factors in these cases requires further analysis to assess the extent to which a program’s outlays are likely to affect total expenditures. An agency may either make a rough estimate of the degree to which Federal funds might be substituted for other funds and adjust total program expenditures accordingly, or it may ignore these substitution effects in its calculations of employment requirements. If potential substitution of funds is not accounted for, however, an agency should qualify its employment estimates for possible overstatement. Appendix C. Outline of Procedures for Using Manpower Factors The purpose of this appendix is to further illustrate the technique of estimating employment requirements using manpower factors. While an explanation of the calculation procedures is presented in some detail in the body of this report, the intention here is to simplify the presentation by giving the steps in outline form. Two general stages can be distinguished in the use of manpower factors: program analysis and factor selec tion; and actual employment calculations. In the first phase, the Federal program being considered is analyzed to determine in which sectors of the economy Federal program funds are spent. The nature of these sector expenditures is then examined to establish which factor programs, if any, reasonably approximate the outlays. The second phase involves the actual calculation of employment requirements once factor programs have been selected to represent the Federal program or subprograms. While these calculations may be carried out at any of three different levels of factor aggregation, the procedures are basically the same: Total outlays for the Federal program or subprograms must be put in terms of 1972 dollars; manpower factors must be adjusted for productivity change from the 1972 base; and the adjusted outlays must be multiplied by the adjusted factors. A . Program analysis and factor selection 1. Identify precisely the Federal program area to be studied. 2. Determine total program outlays, ignoring offsetting receipts or other accounting ad justments that would change actual program expenditures. 3. Separate program outlays into direct Federal purchases of goods and services, grants, transfer payments, and subsidies. 4. Trace outlay ag^ egates to the sectors of the economy which actually spend them. 5. Determine the general nature of the expendi tures ultimately made by a sector. 6. Examine available factor programs to deter mine which, if any, is suitable for a sector’s expenditures. 7. Match program or subprogram outlay amounts with the corresponding factor pro gram. 8. In cases of generalized program outlays it may be appropriate to match them to an overall or nonspecific factor program. 9. Where no match is suitable, that part of the program must be dropped from the analysis. For guidance, table C-l suggests matching factor programs for different types of Federal outlays. B. Adjustment and employment requirements calcula tions I. Data adjustments 1. Estimate the price change in each program sector from the base year 1972 to the year being studied. Use table 2 on page 9 and other data. 2. Divide program and subprogram outlay amounts by their respective price change adjustment to convert to 1972 dollars. Table C-1. Types of Federal outlays and matching factor programs Type of Federal outlay Direct Federal p u rch ases................ G ra n ts ............................. Transfers to persons . . Probable matching factor program Federal Government, total Defense Nondefense except NASA NASA State and local government, total Except structures New construction Education Except structure New construction Health, welfare, and sanitation Except structures New construction Other functions Except structures New construction Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Food Services Medical 3. Divide outlays in 1972 dollars by $1 billion to put them in terms of outlays per billion dollars. II. Factor adjustment 1. Decide the level of aggregation desired: total program only; major industry sector and occupational group; or individual industry and occupation estimates. 2. If just the total employment requirements estimate of the program is desired, only one factor is adjusted for each subprogram. a. Select the factor given in table 4, p. 11, for each program or subprogram. b. Consult table 3 on page 10 giving annual productivity adjustments, 1958-70. c. Select the annual productivity adjust ment for the total public and private economy (1.027) as most representative of total program employment. d. Convert this annual figure for the time period being considered, that is, the number of years from calendar year 1972 to the year needed. e. Divide the selected program factor or factors by this adjustment to take into account the effects of productivity change. f. No adjustment is made of occupational factors at this level of estimation. 3. If the employment requirements estimate is desired by industry sector and occupational group the factor program should be selected from table 5, p. 12. a. List the program factors for the 10 industry sectors given in table 5. b. Consult table 3 on page 10 giving annual productivity adjustments by sector. c. Select the adjustment for each sector. In the three sectors where figures are not provided, use the private nonfarm figure (1.028). d. Multiply each adjustment by itself for the number of years needed from the base year 1972. For example, in the case of the services sector use the private nonfarm figure. To adjust this to 1974 multiply 1.028 x 1.028, = 1.057. e. Divide each industry sector factor in table 5 by its adjustment for productivity change. Using the “other services” sector as an example, the unadjusted 1972 factor for the total public sector in the first row of table 5 is 6,947. Dividing by an estimated 2-year productivity change of 1.057 gives a factor adjusted to 1974 of 6,574. f. The total of adjusted factors is then used as a basis for adjusting the occupational factors in table 6. Divide the new total of industry factors by the old total (table 5) to obtain a percentage of change. This percentage is then used to scale the corresponding program row of occupa tional factors in table 6. 4. If the employment requirements estimate is desired by individual industry and occupa tion, tables D-l and D-3 in appendix D would be used. a. Obtain estimates of annual change in productivity for each industry where available. b. Where productivity change data are not available for particular industries, use the figure given in table 3 for the overall industry sector. c. Convert annual productivity adjustments to cover the time period between 1972 and the program year being studied. d. Divide each industry factor for the pro gram, as given in table D-l, by the productivity adjustment developed for each industry. e. The result of this is a list of industry factors for the program which have been adjusted for estimated productivity change from 1972 to the year being studied. f. Again, obtaining the total of these fac tors for the program, and dividing this total by the 1972 program total (table D-l program total) provides a measure of total program productivity change. This rate is used to adjust the occupational factors in table D-3 by simply multiply ing down the column of program factors in the table. II I. Employment calculations 1. The calculation of employment require ments, for all three levels of aggregation, simply involves multiplying program outlays in billions of 1972 dollars by the already adjusted program factors. Appendix D. Factor Detail by Industry and Occupation Industry manpower factors Occupational manpower factors Table D-l shows the full industry detail for the data summarized in the text in tables 4 and 5. Industry manpower factors, which include both the direct and indirect employment requirements, are given for 134 industry sectors, including Federal, State, and local governments and for employment of domestic workers in households. Table D-2 lists the individual industries constituting each sector, as numbered in the inter industry model of BLS and in the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) of the Bureau of the Budget (now the Office of Management and Budget). Table D-3 shows the occupational requirements per billion dollars, given 1972 productivity and price levels. Here the industry employment totals from table D-l are distributed over 160 occupations in the private sector. The manpower factors given in table D-l for the Federal Government and for State and local government are also disaggregated in this table into occupational groups, except for the Armed Forces. These data provide the full occupational detail of the data summarized in table 6 of the text. Public sector Federal Industry number and title Total public sector State and local Nondefense Defense Total Except NASA Education NASA Total New Except State structures construc and local tion Total Health,, welfare, and sanitation New Except construc structures tion Total Except structures New construc tion Other functions Total New Except construc structures tion Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries: 1. Livestock and livestock p ro d u c ts ............... 2. Crops and other agricultural prod ucts ............................................................ 3. Forestry and fisheries.................................. 4. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery ser vices ........................................................... Mining: 188 198 146 167 92 171 199 82 119 124 95 442 499 80 133 174 82 303 34 270 16 29 9 12 6 153 16 352 48 388 44 263 76 213 36 204 30 315 91 795 48 871 41 240 87 322 51 407 55 243 74 60 76 9 6 57 51 48 82 60 57 94 153 162 76 17 _ 80 5. Iron ore m inin g ............................................ 6. Copper ore mining ...................................... 7. Other nonferrous metal ore m inin g ............ 8. Coal mining ................................................. 9. Crude petroleum .......................................... 10. Stone and clay mining and quarry ............ 11. Chemical and fertilizer mining ................... 23 30 39 88 205 216 23 16 26 42 61 180 41 16 9 33 75 47 145 75 9 6 35 81 46 161 86 12 20 39 58 59 105 55 13 29 28 24 164 214 347 28 23 23 30 106 207 229 32 64 59 53 135 298 995 18 17 24 19 109 174 136 12 14 16 13 110 178 93 11 53 106 65 119 164 522 20 24 32 32 88 185 177 32 21 31 25 87 182 * 105 ' 33 62 35 46 153 164 720 19 37 28 24 98 231 514 37 33 28 24 102 233 393 51 74 44 41 145 364 1,200 19 Construction: 12. New residential building construc tion ........................................................... 13. New nonresidential building con struction ................................................... 14. New public utilities construction ............... 15. New highway constru ction ......................... 16. A ll other new construction......................... 17. Maintenance and repair co n stru ctio n ........ 160 80 242 1,714 256 3,186 95 836 248 1,334 700 247 742 310 1,408 157 222 233 250 1,527 18,990 2,392 7,678 3,015 8,715 806 306 3,856 3,839 2,659 13,189 1,221 314 Manufacturing: 18. Guided missiles and space vehicles ............ 19. Other ordnance............................................ 20. Food products ............................................. 21. Tobacco manufacturing ............................. 22. Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ..................... 23. Miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings................................................. 24. Hosiery and knit goods................................ 25. Apparel......................................................... 26. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products ................................................. 27. Logging, sawmills, and planning m ills ........ 28. M illwork, plywood and other wood products ................................................. 29. Household fu rn itu re .................................... 30. Other fu rn itu re ............................................. 31. Paper p ro d u c ts ............................................ 32. Paperboard................................................... 33. Publishing..................................................... 34. P rinting......................................................... 35. Chemical products ...................................... 36. Agricultural chemicals ................................ 37. Plastic materials and synthetic rub ber ............................................................ — — — 23 381 485 138 1,122 1,260 159 1,282 1,414 125 906 1,082 425 1,227 113 1,949 356 522 261 1 123 645 1,309 235 887 29 334 185 23 393 — — — 104 3 6 280 1 114 — 94 3 7 238 1 105 — 136 6,085 91 132 2 71 88 36 25 128 33 26 106 14 23 178 12 29 208 25 15 77 39 22 121 35 23 137 39 205 44 79 38 127 46 144 14 91 32 288 192 41 137 230 102 298 378 368 32 74 16 25 140 74 132 240 419 12 118 47 127 202 66 51 80 225 14 133 52 150 220 69 35 41 231 17 79 17 31 194 89 198 405 296 10 70 61 47 46 91 - — — — — 762 1,344 — 6,731 11,877 — — — — — — — — — — — — 1,113 1,225 290 932 1,025 269 713 494 2,447 227 2,636 3 4 160 4 16 103 2 119 8 8 643 70 2 3 169 1 65 297 7 7 730 1 347 3 9 90 2 82 2 7 181 2 77 3 9 242 2 92 3 8 94 2 80 64 18 70 36 10 39 29 7 35 92 17 77 48 80 522 48 89 589 58 16 84 35 15 79 37 18 97 56 15 72 37 254 18 521 19 204 19 162 33 595 56 257 69 210 22 572 33 332 44 346 18 482 272 52 225 275 118 435 499 322 46 216 54 242 293 128 510 583 332 55 609 59 76 258 105 187 217 351 18 204 75 373 267 119 727 407 221 24 148 76 407 259 119 798 435 207 26 723 66 126 365 139 199 232 365 14 386 32 72 410 273 313 594 723 24 223 33 86 428 307 328 652 784 32 1,536 17 10 256 97 167 189 314 12 273 35 89 225 72 201 500 276 65 272 32 112 269 78 243 683 305 90 437 64 68 215 92 182 209 347 16 73 71 99 68 55 184 104 109 87 63 72 67 — — — 12 94 — — — Public sector State and local Federal Industry number and title Total public sector Manufacturing — Continued 38. Synthetic fibers ........................................... 39. D ru g s ............................................................ 40. Cleaning and toilet preparations................. 41. P a in t.............................................................. 42. Petroleum products .................................... 43. Rubber products........................................... 44. Plastic products ........................................... 45. Leather, footwear, and leather prod ucts .......................................................... 46. Glass.............................................................. 47. Cement, clay, and concrete p ro d u c ts ......... 48. Miscellaneous stone and clay prod ucts .......................................................... 49. Blast furnaces and basic steel prod ucts .......................................................... 50. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ......... 51. Primary copper metals ................................ 52. Primary aluminum ...................................... 53. Other primary and secondary nonferrous m e ta l........................................... 54. Copper rolling and draw ing.......................... 55. Aluminum rolling and d ra w in g ................... 56. Other nonferrous rolling and d raw ing......... 57. Miscellaneous nonferrous metal products . . . . ......................................... 58. Metal containers........................................... 59. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tures ........................................................ 60. Fabricated structural m e ta l.......................... 61. Screw machine p rod u cts.............................. 62. Other fabricated metal p rod u cts................. 63. Engines, turbines, and generators............... 64. Farm m achinery........................................... 65. Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery ............................................... 66. Material handling equipment ..................... 67. Metalworking machinery ............................ 68. Special industry m achinery.......................... 69. General industrial machinery ..................... 70, Machine shop products................................ 71. Computers and peripheral equipm ent......... 72. Typewriters and other office ma chines ..................................................... 73. Service industry machines............................ 74. Electric transmission equipm ent................. 75. Electrical industrial apparatus...................... 76. Household appliances.................................. 77. Electric lighting and w irin g .......................... 78. Radio and television sets.............................. 79. Telephone and telegraph apparatus............. Defense Total Except NASA NASA New Total Except construc State and local structures tion Total Other functions Health, welfare, and sanitation Education Nondefense New Except construc structures tion Total Except structures New construc tion Total New Except construc structures tion 28 6 14 82 94 162 354 17 11 19 111 147 149 185 24 15 21 132 148 167 220 175 294 11 111 4,129 2 70 1,099 78 857 10 85 2,507 273 181 878 219 198 425 1,199 293 46 94 538 161 8 24 408 141 11 23 1,423 330 12 93 870 278 11 31 756 197 11 28 1,745 698 15 63 15 19 36 45 78 104 211 683 32 32 64 153 29 25 46 162 44 34 207 56 28 28 67 96 26 27 57 112 44 43 131 104 32 19 27 20 74 22 32 48 25 53 47 21 33 24 37 28 48 26 334 3,301 269 755 64 6 165 747 177 286 22 19 100 483 146 219 20 22 745 3,189 456 927 43 6 80 1,108 153 313 40 8 59 607 144 246 34 8 273 4,686 224 771 49 7 113 1,322 153 387 46 11 109 989 164 362 46 14 190 3,163 211 689 67 9 89 55 98 30 104 159 66 252 111 140 41 267 164 18 32 56 109 32 97 198 89 25 54 98 30 79 212 98 88 69 227 39 272 113 19 72 56 72 40 104 72 32 43 35 62 34 79 61 38 232 189 119 36 239 98 17 173 63 92 24 127 123 29 162 58 104 25 131 127 40 304 113 118 36 194 183 17 66 110 139 119 35 224 17 23 6 140 515 193 29 544 12 29 92 151 244 119 36 243 24 19 105 134 95 101 36 212 25 17 8 270 1,581 286 59 563 15 39 24 88 145 112 32 193 8 24 32 94 143 101 38 172 14 31 7 90 106 192 20 301 9 21 26 79 151 123 28 280 9 24 35 88 172 135 33 239 12 28 7 105 173 160 24 572 9 23 58 865 50 53 105 224 412 26 75 34 66 127 142 248 30 25 12 30 119 140 209 19 80 19 47 89 80 193 17 98 17 52 98 81 185 18 9 23 44 63 127 360 22 102 50 89 127 142 262 22 128 59 92 121 141 254 23 6 18 94 187 181 363 17 12 88 58 95 92 289 17 12 97 57 97 84 227 42 8 13 78 97 172 879 48 755 40 56 96 217 402 22 89 531 50 61 90 9 75 202 12 81 231 8 94 127 2 102 857 12 123 2,534 3 112 458 _ 102 291 12 212 2,003 _ 103 549 169 771 174 94 85 81 142 232 179 538 206 150 713 547 221 12 36 346 230 10 41 324 127 19 29 329 110 17 23 445 292 17 70 679 211 11 29 524 147 8 22 1,586 568 23 70 388 112 10 24 300 93 6 18 41 28 73 92 33 26 83 71 113 14 42 23 127 12 29 6 59 34 138 145 26 29 65 112 22 25 48 91 53 59 217 240 20 27 53 106 72 25 113 22 80 14 57 17 255 16 34 26 32 28 53 23 91 728 221 325 63 12 33 184 269 256 90 7 33 282 188 249 61 5 35 306 162 236 63 6 43 288 471 450 83 8 135 1,131 170 357 38 15 101 734 158 292 35 17 94 60 165 33 149 288 118 59 57 240 31 183 464 123 75 33 127 38 103 188 347 87 35 81 41 92 92 381 34 34 502 43 222 945 327 113 62 101 30 118 154 55 38 84 200 161 30 212 26 59 14 48 195 185 23 109 38 99 29 42 136 169 23 183 23 61 29 46 110 150 23 185 17 52 54 56 380 397 32 265 82 160 54 111 195 127 33 268 16 23 _ 27 7 14 103 240 187 187 Public sector Federal Industry number and title Manufacturing — Continued 80. Other electronic communication equipm ent............... ............................. 81. Electronic components............................. 82. Other electrical m a chin e ry....................... 83. Motor vehicles .......................................... 84. A irc ra ft....................................................... 85. Ship and boatbuilding and repair ............ 86. Railroad and other transportation equipm ent............................................ 87. Miscellaneous transportation equip ment ..................................................... 88. Scientific and controlling instru ments ..................................................... 89. Medical and dental instruments .............. 90. Optical and ophthalmic equipment.......... 91. Photographic equipment and sup plies ....................................................... 92. Miscellaneous manufactured prod ucts ....................................................... Transportation, communication, and public utilities: 93. Railroad transportation ........................... 94. Local transit and intercity bus trans portation ............................................... 95. Truck transportation ................................ 96. Water transportation.................................. 97. A ir transportation...................................... 98. Other transportation.................................. 99. Communications, except radio and T V ......................................................... 100. Radio and TV broadcasting ..................... 101. Electric utilities ........................................ 102. Gas u tilitie s ................................................. 103. Water and sanitary services....................... Wholesale and retail trade: 104. Wholesale tra d e .......................................... 105. Retail trade................................................. Finance, insurance, and real estate: 106. Finance ....................................................... 107. Insurance ................................................... 108. Owner-occupied dwellings ....................... 109. Other real e state........................................ Services: 110. Hotels and lodging pla ce s......................... 111. Other personal services............................. 112. Miscellaneous............................................ 113. A dve rtisin g ................................................. State and local Nondefense Total public sector Defense 831 543 57 198 1,419 256 1,614 1,031 70 140 3,227 559 1,235 625 38 103 1,165 98 14 12 9 2 4 229 53 52 277 34 100 89 Total Education Total New Except State construc structures tion and local Health, welfare, and sanitation New Except construc structures tion Other functions New Except construc structures tion NASA 964 485 35 122 231 116 3,613 1,893 78 22 8,041 57 99 122 46 238 33 46 106 121 45 295 31 38 88 152 58 17 53 94 60 126 29 162 27 27 57 110 28 181 22 20 108 296 60 15 62 104 321 177 64 96 40 32 358 194 62 113 38 23 47 93 47 11 50 122 68 94 50 304 33 59 76 106 54 452 35 60 4 6 11 8 6 10 24 33 9 1 4 1 4 4 4 10 Total Total Except structures New construc tion Except NASA Total 92 117 61 17 45 89 6 18 16 18 6 _ 11 2 1 6 267 61 47 254 57 29 496 100 210 163 60 15 144 73 17 293* 12 6 240 14 22 176 14 25 840 16 9 209 394 24 190 454 27 313 13 7 79 11 5 92 13 6 88 12 6 95 98 92 174 73 85 35 70 74 37 161 181 25 48 62 31 136 55 71 75 79 193 216 70 230 248 105 120 127 86 163 196 149 427 348 319 352 265 462 411 819 325 278 788 466 434 709 522 518 842 298 778 226 393 86 60 638 469 477 86 61 605 38 409 66 63 664 35 421 75 93 534 87 546 57 ' 485 831 68 289 81 593 713 65 293 80 88 1,598 99 339 105 865 609 51 177 60 967 505 50 160 60 93 1,609 76 367 77 273 803 64 353 80 303 745 63 356 79 85 1,259 73 324 71 199 929 75 331 89 272 878 77 393 94 85 1,640 110 330 126 82 51 270 95 48 877 31 147 50 29 1,043 38 33 75 42 843 41 12 87 46 2,956 48 189 57 48 644 62 379 121 58 623 66 436 129 63 901 59 199 105 47 422 70 475 151 131 360 72 512 158 143 1,016 64 213 101 41 755 72 313 129 8 739 76 335 125 - 879 53 207 121 43 727 48 286 85 9 818 55 368 94 - 861 56 197 108 40 1,765 1,000 1,261 541 1,695 864 1,686 895 2,686 1,109 1,951 1,250 1,843 935 2,938 3,055 1,639 405 1,489 - 3,193 4,027 2,193 1,237 2,182 1,083 2,355 2,298 1,949 1,777 2,000 1,786 2,932 2,803 256 362 124 243 188 267 196 283 224 301 338 477 363 490 298 527 172 441 156 451 330 415 249 490 251 490 280 487 452 456 586 504 289 571 - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ 258 148 287 306 327 301 318 293 162 152 293 337 348 257 370 463 935 181 1,747 48 795 121 1,442 34 1,343 254 1,906 38 1,559 283 1,813 41 633 196 3,549 53 851 189 1,746 55 1,028 220 1,907 55 211 82 1,399 64 22 114 128 39 117 1,285 36 228 94 1,382 73 1,237 490 1,968 80 1,385 553 2,048 86 208 92 1,404 60 1,313 159 1,888 55 1,903 212 2,391 63 _ 300 . 209 81 1,404 64 P u b lic s ector State and local Federal Industry number and title Services —Continued 114. Miscellaneous professional services........... 115. Automobile repair .................................... 116. Motion pictures ......................................... 117. Other amusements .................................... 118. Health services except h o sp ita ls............... 119. Hospitals...................................................... 120. Educational services.................................. 121. Nonprofit organizations ......... .................. Government enterprises: 122. Post O ffic e ................................................. 123. Commodity Credit C orp o ra tion ............... 124. Other Federal enterprises.......................... 125. State and local government enter prises ..................................................... public sector Defense 1,096 156 64 60 345 307 404 411 454 89 80 112 78 76 285 510 468 55 318 Except NASA NASA 921 108 61 9 272 423 2,282 1,075 820 110 35 6 323 514 2,593 901 2,105 166 274 52 71 38 1,417 2,833 337 34 385 33 358 — 6 757 — 244 145 850 1,016 Total Health, welfare, and sanitation Education Nondefense New Total Except State construc structures and local tion Total New Except construc structures tion 2,664 264 34 51 28 4 13 162 964 193 32 40 3.486 3,413 48 241 728 181 39 41 3,980 3,901 55 259 2,684 232 29 44 30 4 12 148 1,999 233 28 37 137 4 96 173 1,833 273 32 42 193 6 141 215 3,708 234 31 45 35 4 12 138 1,077 — 62 239 — 52 555 — 63 749 78 266 — 55 213 170 187 222 — — ~ — — — ~ — - — - 83,762 — — 3,354 246 29 47 35 — 12 146 754 128 68 4 53 3 3 95 550 116 73 — 57 3 — 89 529 — 68 610 — 73 269 — 59 296 — 68 302 — 68 279 — 65 972 — 64 199 298 331 211 511 554 202 24 - Imports: 126. Transferred im p o rts .................................. 127. Transferred imports .................................. - — - - — - — - — - — - — - — - — - — — — — — — Dummy industries: 128. Business travel, entertainment, and g if ts ........................................................ 129. Office su pp lies........................................... 130. Scrap, used and secondhand goo d s........... — - — - — - — - — - — — — - — - — - — — — — — — — ~ — - 40,244 — — 8,182 — 69,592 — 84,250 — — — 87,328 — 96.111 — — 55,560 — — — ~ 57,959 — — Special industries: 131. Government in d u s try ................................ 59,027 132. Rest of the world in d u s try ........................ 133. Households................................................. 134. Inventory valuation adjustment ............... - 46,438 — 36,678 - — ~ — — — — — New Except construc structures tion Total New construc tion 1,154 197 51 23 642 523 70 169 1,473 197 46 26 516 416 57 159 Other functions Except structures — — Total 56.175 — — — Private sector Personal consumption expenditures Industry number and title Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries: 1. Livestock and livestock products ............... 2. Crops and other agricultural prod ucts ......................................................... 3. Forestry and fisheries.................................. 4. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery ser vices ......................................................... Total private sector Exports Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Total Services Food Total Medical Total merchandise and services Gross private domestic investment Merchan dise only Total Producers' durable equipment New construction 1,405 1,662 132 3,514 6,851 374 224 829 946 108 91 121 2,267 76 2.291 60 293 62 4,597 106 7,773 162 722 14 370 16 4,400 103 6,037 141 361 115 182 35 531 206 405 417 104 824 1,363 124 85 646 873 121 92 149 26 31 26 126 314 94 29 13 13 14 102 339 51 22 41 41 40 96 126 51 22 11 10 14 93 546 61 32 12 8 11 67 179 56 32 4 6 6 113 212 40 11 5 5 8 50 91 22 13 95 105 75 359 309 143 108 123 146 104 500 342 196 149 63 76 56 122 165 274 19 66 67 58 116 122 53 17 62 91 55 132 208 514 21 519 247 — 94 756 _ — — 874 _ _ _ _ _ _ — — 330 — — 462 — — — 475 — — 1,498 — — 407 _ — — 435 — — 454 2,904 1,378 — 523 331 — — 302 5,296 2,514 — 954 312 8 35 1,853 85 693 4 19 2.273 101 802 7 55 101 1 690 4 23 5,221 236 1,579 4 2 10.327 1 121 2 1 123 1 60 2 6 329 21 91 38 217 1,000 99 551 52 313 1,046 141 621 19 21 111 2 187 34 30 109 2 228 4 11 111 2 136 158 299 1,344 163 375 1,696 583 38 74 151 862 3,952 50 28 52 16 10 35 21 10 25 117 103 457 147 88 241 123 21 79 128 24 85 117 18 74 224 293 260 172 358 398 448 177 92 146 34 80 42 72 123 479 158 668 84 756 132 217 32 1,376 Mining: 5. Iron ore m inin g ............................................. 6. Copper ore m in in g ...................................... 7. Other nonferrous metal ore m ining............. 8. Coalmining ................................................. 9. Crude petroleum .......................................... 10. Stone and clay mining and q ua rryin g ......... 11. Chemical and fertilizer mining ................... Construction: 12. New residential building construc tion ......................................................... 13. New nonresidential building con struction ................................................. 14. New public utilities construction ............... 15. New highway constru ction ......................... 16. All other new construction......................... 17. Maintenance and repair co n stru ctio n ........ Manufacturing: 18. Guided missiles and space vehicles............. 19. Other ordnance............................................. 20. Food products ............................................. 21. Tobacco manufacturing ............................. 22. Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ..................... 23. Miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings................................................. 24. Hosiery and knit goods................................ 25. A pparel......................................................... 26. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products ................................................. 27. Logging, sawmills, and planing m ills ........... 10,548 1,888 19.234 _ Component o f demand Private sector Industry num ber and title M anufacturing — Continued 2 8 . M ilw o rk , plyw ood, and other wood produ cts............................................. 2 9 . Household fu rn itu re .......... .......................... 3 0 . O ther fu rn itu re .................................................. 3 1 . Paper p ro d u c ts ...................... 32. P aperboard.................................................... 3 3 . P o lis h in g ............................................... ........... 3 4 . P rin tin g ........................................................... .... 35 . Chemical p ro d u c ts ........................................... 36 . Agricultural chemicals ..................... ............. 3 7 . Plastic m aterials and synthetic rub ber .................................................................. 3 8 . Synthetic fibers ............................................... 3 9 . D ru g s .................................................................. 4 0 . Cleaning and to ile t p reparations................... 4 1 . P a in t.................................................................... 4 2 . Petroleum products ........................................ 4 3 . Rubber produ cts............................................... 4 4 . Plastic products ............................................... 4 5 . Leather, footw ear, and leather prod ucts ................................................................ 4 6 . G lass.................................................................... 4 7 . Cem ent, clay, and concrete p ro d u c ts .......... 4 8 . Miscellaneous stone and clay prod ucts ................................................................ 4 9 . Blast furnaces and basic steel prod ucts ................................................................ 5 0 . Iro n and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ......... 51 . Prim ary copper m e ta ls ................................... 5 2 . Prim ary a lu m in u m ........................................... 5 3 . O ther prim ary and secondary nonferrous m e ta l............................................... 5 4 . Copper roiling and draw ing............................. 55 . Alum inum rolling and d ra w in g ..................... 5 6 . O ther nonferrous rolling and d raw in g .......... 57. Miscellaneous nonferrous m etal products ...................................................... 58 . M etal co n tain ers............................................... Total private sector Total 284 351 119 467 231 603 547 446 67 154 387 21 489 242 686 609 368 63 136 145 167 142 64 184 302 428 110 156 193 175 50 196 309 382 319 161 229 410 150 54 Services Nondurable goods Durable goods Total merchandise and services 135 12 4 779 432 943 835 536 95 151 10 4 635 495 527 774 338 148 39 4 2 169 44 278 410 145 49 35 7 25 363 138 372 387 290 17 175 42 25 670 208 417 395 1,217 159 234 55 34 888 264 506 466 1,658 216 935 279 638 291 158 242 269 368 16 267 215 1.132 271 187 278 303 366 277 225 11 86 31 74 18 37 110 105 281 33 14 110 19 45 66 77 107 66 IS 2,246 48 17 50 138 235 340 179 176 66 66 195 283 481 464 225 242 72 86 214 357 625 : 143 56 11 13 117 99 250 567 161 95 73 1,173 1,023 123 271 344 386 38 371 213 412 90 71 336 673 154 443 122 281 55 924 210 52 16 315 44 39 56 6 131 26 100 204 92 ! S ! ! } 33 156 1.137 50 173 58 14 136 2.257 186 | 274 462 187 753 1.055 470 ! I 1.452 652 46 130 j 1.462 704 31 76 1,559 1,017 27 77 1,436 298 38 75 108 54 150 150 68 87 152 278 74 72 143 158 66 108 162 443 169 86 159 27 252 27 59 29 73 199 60 44 51 34 948 509 16 52 215 49 3 253 47 2 13 82 30 2 5 88 j 21 1 ? ! ! 48 43 100 78 13 7 26 15 11 5 32 10 7 5 8 15 9 3 8 7 167 24 13 222 9 375 8 14 8 37 i 59 74 12 30 25 63 91 36 103 j| j niew construction 504 2 ,384 115 435 258 1.076 531 508 16 276 114 5 15 IS Producers' durable equipm ent Food 152 30 27 Total Total 23 Medical Merchan dise only T o tal 534 237 11 32 Gross private domestic investment Exports Personal consumption expenditures 12 4 j : I 33 93 79 29 109 I i m | ! 123 73 [ I ! I :! 
@FedFRASER