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Employment Projections fo r1995 U.S. D epartm ent of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics M arch 1984 Bulletin 2197 9 Employment Projections for1995 U.S. D epartm ent of Labor Raym ond J. Donovan, S e cre ta ry Bureau of Labor S ta tistics Janet L. N orw ood, C om m issioner M arch 1984 B ulletin 2197 F o r sale by th e S u p erin te n d en t of D ocum ents, U.S. G overnm ent P rin tin g Office, W ashington, D.C. 20402 Pr@fa©@ The bulletin presents the latest Bureau o f Labor Statistics employment projections for the year 1995, in cluding the economic and labor force estimates on which they are based. It consists o f four articles from the November 1983 issue of the M onthly L abor Review and supplementary tables containing additional data that are frequently requested. These projections are part of a program initiated 20 years ago to study alternative patterns o f economic growth and their effects on employment. Earlier employment projections in this series cover the years 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. Further background data and descriptions o f the models and analytical systems used can be obtained from the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections. The authors are cited at the beginning o f each article. The appendix tables were compiled and prepared for publication by David Frank using photocom position systems developed by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics. M aterial in this publication is in the public domain and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permission. Contents Page The 1995 labor force: a second l o o k ...................................................................................................... 1 Economic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenarios for economic g r o w t h ...................................... 9 The j ob outlook through 1995: industry output and employment proj ections.............................. 22 Occupational employment projections through 1995 .......................................................................... 35 Appendix tables: Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95: A -l. Middle growth p a th .................................................................................................................. A-2. High growth path .................................................................................................................... A-3. Low growth p a t h ....................................................................................................................... A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and growth path, 1986-95.............................................................................. A-5. Labor force and participation rates by sex and growth path, 1986-95 .......................... 48 52 56 60 64 Selected aggregate economic assum ptions, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected 1990 and 1995: B -l. V a lu e s.......................................................................................................................................... 65 B-2. Rates o f c h a n g e ......................................................................................................................... 66 Gross national product and m ajor components by industry: C -l. 1972.............................................................................................................................................. C-2. 1977.............................................................................................................................................. C-3. 1995 low alternative.................................................................................................................. C-4. 1995 m oderate alternative........................................................................................................ C-5. 1995 high altern ativ e................................................................................................................ 67 73 79 85 91 O utput and employment by industry, 1958-95: D -l. Gross output ............................................................................................................................. 97 D-2. Total em ploym ent......................................................................................................................109 D-3. Total hours paid ........................................................................................................................121 E -l. Emplyment inselected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives...................................................................................................................... 133 iv The 1995 labor force: a second look About 131A million persons are expected to be in the 1995 labor force, 3.8 million more than projected earlier; alternative projections use various demographic and, for the first time, economic assumptions about the laborforce How ard N F u l l e r t o n , Jr . and Jo h n T s c h e t t e r sensitivity of labor force changes to assumptions about real earnings and the employment rate. During the 1982-95 period, the number of persons of prime working age (25-54) in the labor force is expected to grow considerably faster than the total labor force. Young workers will decline in absolute numbers as the rate of growth of the total labor force slows markedly. These growth trends reflect the aging of the baby-boom generation and a sub sequent sharp decline in birth rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its labor force projections for the 1982-95 period.1 For the middle scen ario, which assumes that labor force participation of women will accelerate then taper off, the civilian labor force is projected to reach 131.4 million persons by 1995, 3.8 mil lion more than projected earlier.2The labor force is expected to grow 1.6 percent per year over the 1982-90 period, slowing to 1.0 percent per year during 1990-95, thus con tinuing the slow growth which began in the late 1970’s. Nearly two-thirds of the growth will be among women; nearly one-fourth will be among the black and other group.3 This article presents new projections for the 1995 labor force with alternative demographic and, for the first time, economic assumptions. The demographic alternatives illus trate the sensitivity of the size of the projected labor force to various assumptions regarding the behavior of age, sex, and racial groups.4 The economic alternatives explore the Methodology Labor force projections require population projections. The latter have been prepared by the Bureau of the Census by age, sex, and race, based on trends in birth rates, death rates, and net migration.5 Once the population projections are prepared, b l s can project labor force participation rates— the percent of each group in the population who will be working or seeking work— for 64 age, sex, and race groups. To develop labor force participation rates for each group, rates of growth over the 1962-81 period (or subperiods) are analyzed using the most appropriate time period for each group. If past trends are deemed not likely to continue throughout the projection period, the rates are modified. The rate of change in labor force participation was modified for several groups: women ages 20-44 and 45 and over, and men ages 55 and over. The rates of change in partici pation for all groups are tapered so that the annual changes would be zero after the year 2004. For women ages 20 to 44, it is assumed that the rate of change in participation will accelerate during the 1982-85 period to allow some partial recovery from the 1980-82 economic slowdown. These projections assume that some of the 1980-82 slowdown in female participation rates are permanent, particularly when compared with the trends of the early and mid-1970’s. Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter are economists in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Sta tistics. 1 For the older labor force, the participation rates have been declining over the 1962-81 period. It is assumed that these declines will moderate. If the historical trends for some older groups continue, the resulting participation rates would ap proach zero. These modifications for women and older workers were made to each age group within these broad groups. The historical rates of change in participation for all re maining labor force groups are assumed to continue. The levels of anticipated labor force are calculated by applying projected participation rates to the Bureau of the Census’ population projections. slower, rise in participation among women ages 20 to 44. (See tables 1 and 2.) In contrast, the increases in the labor force during the 1970’s were influenced by the initial en trance of the baby-boom generation, and by the very rapid increases in the.labor force activity of women, particularly married women ages 20 to 44. As a consequence of these changing influences, labor force growth is expected to slow in the late 1980’s and the 1990’s. The following tabulation shows labor force growth from 1950 to 1982 and projected growth from 1983 to 1995, by Middle growth scenario 195060 Age 16 and over . . 1.3 .0 16 to 24 ............... 25 to 54 ............... . 1.3 1.6 55 and o v e r......... age group: The overall growth in the labor force over the next 8 to 12 years will be influenced by the baby-boom generation, which will attain those ages at which both men and women have their highest participation; and by the continued, but 196070 1.7 4.51.0 1.4 197082 2.4 2.7 2.3 .3 198290 1.6 - 1.3 2.9 - .7 199095 1.0 - .8 1.6 - .2 The uncertainty of projections partment of Defense and some of the defense industries have said there is a critical shortage of engineers that should be reflected in our publications. During the same period, we have had three groups representing the engineering profes sions say that b l s has been painting such a rosy picture for engineers that we are causing a flood in the market and that their member engineers cannot find jobs. Which of these groups is correct? We examined this dilemma and concluded that there probably are two distinct markets for engineers. One is new college graduates who are currently in short supply— in at least some engineering disciplines— and these are principally among the engineer ing categories used by defense contractors. But 45 year-old engineers who are working on a product or product line that has been cancelled are in a tough job market because they are not always able to compete with the young engineer. The important point here is that if this situation is true for engineers, it may also be true for accountants and auditors, lawyers, and many other occupations. Economists and others involved in forecasting economic activity understand the uncertain nature of projections. However, others, including those who are primary users of the information, may not. Thus, the development of nu merical projections is only the first task in presenting in formation on economic trends or employment growth, it is just as important to present the data in a meaningful way. Unfortunately, this task is neither simple nor straight for ward. Despite b l s ’ experience with and concern about the subject, we still are not sure our users understand the un certainty attached to our projected data. The Bureau hopes that by indicating the factors underlying growth, preparing evaluation of previous projections, and discussing alterna tives and assumptions, we will provide users with some idea of the uncertainties. Knowledge or insights concerning future employment trends is very valuable. . . . Such information is used to plan careers and training programs, and develop business expansion plans and public policy. However, information about future employment growth is clouded by uncer tainty. . . . It is very important for users to understand the imprecise nature of projections so they can deal with the information properly. Although virtually no data about changes in the economy over a 10-year period can be anticipated with absolute cer tainty, there are differing degrees of uncertainty. To illus trate, I would say with relative certitude that the younger labor force is going to decline in this decade. The population which will be 16 years or older in 1990 is bom and unless there are truly revolutionary changes in labor force partic ipation rates for young people along with dramatic infusions through immigration of young people, the young labor force will decline. Perhaps, at the other end of the scale the uncertainty would be a projection of employment in the oil and gas well drilling industry. If I knew what the price of oil would be in 1990 or 1995, perhaps I could come close to projecting the level of employment in that industry. But the factors that will determine the price of oil in 1990 are themselves subject to great variances and uncertainty. For much of the information on projections, the uncer tainty lies between these two extremes. For example, the occupation “ computer service technician’’ is projected to grow very rapidly. From 1982 to 1995, its projected growth is 97 percent. I am confident that employment in this oc cupation will grow rapidly, certainly much faster than the average growth of the economy over this period. However, I am not certain that the growth rate will be 97 percent or even fall within the 94-98 percent range shown in our alternatives. The growth rate could be significantly greater. Some occupations of this size, 55,000 in 1982, have grown much faster in the past. Still, a growth rate of only 50 percent is not beyond the realm of impossibility. Concerns received from the public have led us to think and probe further in terms of asking questions about our projections. For example, in the last 6 months, the De — Ronald E. Kutscher Associate Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics. Remarks before a Labor Market Information Conference in Atlanta, Ga., June 1983 2 T able 1. C ivilian labor force, by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 0 -8 2 , and m iddle grow th projection to 1995 P articip atio n rate Labor force (in thousands) Labor group 197 0 1 982 1 980 199 0 1 99 5 1970 1 98 0 1 98 2 1 99 0 1S05 Total, age 16 and over................................ 82,771 106,940 110,204 124,951 131,387 60.4 63.8 64.0 66.9 67.8 Men ........................................................ 16 to 2 4 .............................................. 16 to 1 9 .......................................... 20 to 24 25 to 5 4 .............................................. 25 to 34 .......................................... 35 to 44 .......................................... 45 to 54 .......................................... 55 and over ....................................... 55 to 64 ................................ 65 and over ..................................... 51,228 9,725 4,008 5,717 32,213 11,327 10,469 10,417 9,291 7,126 2,165 61,453 13,606 4,999 8,607 38,712 16,971 11,836 9,905 9,135 7,242 1,893 62,450 13,074 4,470 8,604 40,357 17,793 12,781 9,784 9,019 7,174 1,845 67,701 11,274 4,123 7,151 48,180 19,569 17,469 11,142 8,247 6,419 1,828 69,970 10,573 4,043 6,530 51,358 18,105 19,446 13,807 8,039 6,311 1,728 79.7 69.4 56.1 83.3 95.8 96.4 96.9 94.3 55.7 83.0 26.8 77.4 74.4 60.5 85.9 94.2 95.2 95.5 91.2 45.6 72.1 19.0 76.6 72.6 56.7 84.9 94.0 94.7 95.3 91.2 43.8 70.2 17.8 76.5 74.7 62.3 84.4 93.8 93.7 95.6 91.3 37.4 65.5 14.9 76.1 74.5 62.9 84.1 93.4 93.1 95.3 91.1 35.3 64.5 13.3 Women ................................................... 16 to 2 4 .............................................. 16 to 1 9 .......................................... 20 to 24 .......................................... 25 to 5 4 .............................................. 25 to 34 .......................................... 35 to 4 4 .......................................... 45 to 5 4 .......................................... 55 and over ....................................... 55 to 64 .......................................... 65 and over ..................................... 31,543 8,121 3,241 4,880 18,208 5,708 5,968 6,532 5,213 4,157 1,056 45,487 11,696 4,381 7,315 27,888 12,257 8,627 7,004 5,904 4,742 1,161 47,755 11,533 4,056 7,477 30,149 13,393 9,651 7,105 6,073 4,888 1,185 57,250 10,813 3,778 7,035 40,496 16,804 14,974 8,718 5,941 4,612 1,329 61,417 10,557 3,761 6,796 44,852 16,300 17,427 11,125 6,008 4,671 1,337 43.3 51.3 44.0 57.7 50.1 45.0 51.1 54.4 25.3 43.0 9.7 51.5 61.9 52.9 68.9 64.0 65.5 65.5 59.9 22.8 41.3 8.1 52.6 62.0 51.4 69.8 66.3 68.0 68.0 61.6 22.7 41.8 7.9 58.3 69.1 56.8 78.1 75.6 78.1 78.6 67.1 20.5 41.5 7.4 60.3 71.6 58.2 82.0 78.7 81.7 82.8 69.5 19.9 42.5 7.0 W hite.......................................................... Men ....................................................... 16 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 5 4 .............................................. 55 and over ....................................... Women ................................................... 16 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 5 4 .............................................. 55 and over ....................................... 73,556 46,035 8,540 29,000 8,494 27,521 7,141 15,690 4,690 93,600 54,473 11,902 34,224 8,345 39,127 10,179 23,723 5,226 96,143 55,133 11,371 35,565 8,197 41,010 10,013 25,619 5,378 107,734 59,201 9,854 41,864 7,483 48,533 9,285 34,081 5,167 112,393 60,757 9,271 44,232 7,254 51,636 9,025 37,433 5,178 60.2 80.0 70.2 96.3 55.8 42.6 52.1 48.9 24.9 64.1 78.2 76.7 95.0 46.1 51.2 64.4 63.4 22.4 64.3 77.4 74.9 94.9 44.2 52.4 64.7 66.1 22.4 67.3 77.4 78.5 94.8 37.8 58.1 72.5 75.6 20.1 68.1 77.0 79.1 94.5 35.6 60.0 75.4 78.7 19.5 Black and other ......................................... Men ....................................................... 16 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 5 4 .............................................. 55 and over ....................................... Women............................: .................... 16 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 54 .............................................. 55 and over ....................................... 9,218 5,194 1,185 3,212 796 4,024 982 2,517 524 13,340 6,980 1,702 4,488 790 6,359 1,516 4,164 678 14,062 7,317 1,702 4,792 822 6,745 1,520 4,529 695 17,217 8,500 1,420 6,316 764 8,717 1,528 5,415 774 18,994 9,213 1,302 7,126 785 9,781 1,532 7,419 830 61.8 76.5 64.5 91.9 54.7 49.5 46.3 59.2 30.0 61.7 71.5 61.6 88.6 40.8 53.6 49.3 67.0 26.4 61.6 71.0 60.0 88.0 40.5 53.9 48.8 67.9 25.5 64.8 71.0 55.9 87.6 34.3 59.7 53.7 75.8 23.5 65.7 70.6 52.7 87.2 32.6 61.7 55.3 78.7 22.8 The slowdown actually began in 1979. The peak labor force growth, 3.0 percent per year, occurred between 1976 and 1979. Over the 1979-82 period, growth was only 1.6 per cent per year, reflecting the slowing of long-term growth, as well as the repercussions of 3 years of flat economic growth. Over the 1982-95 period, there will be a pronounced shift in the age structure of the labor force. The 25- to 54year-old labor force is expected to grow considerably faster Tab le 2. than the total labor force, 1.3 percentage points per year faster during the 1982-90 period. At the same time, the number of 16- to 24-year-old participants is projected to decline in absolute numbers. During the 1960’s and 1970’s, the labor force growth of younger workers was by far the fastest of any age group, reflecting the baby-boom gener ation initially entering and then maturing in the labor force. As this young generation ages in the 1990’s, the number of persons ages 25 to 34 will decline. A shift from a young B lack civilian labor force, by sex and age, 1 9 7 2 -8 2 , and m iddle grow th projection to 1995 Participation rate Labor force (in thousands) Labor group 197 2 1980 1982 1990 1995 1972 Blacks, age 16 and over.............................. 8,707 10,865 11,331 13,600 14,833 59.9 61.0 61.6 64.5 65.4 Men ........................................................ 16 to 2 4 ............................................ 25 to 5 4 ............................................ 55 and over ........................................ 4,816 1,214 2,917 687 5,612 1,414 3,551 647 5,804 1,401 3,745 660 6,687 1,156 4,939 592 7,297 1,055 5,549 583 73.7 63.9 90.0 49.1 70.6 62.0 88.4 39.3 70.1 60.3 87.7 39.0 70.4 55.9 87.4 33.2 70.5 54.0 87.0 ■ 31.3 Women................................................... 16 to 2 4 ............................................ 25 to 5 4 ............................................ 55 and over ........................................ 3,890 967 2,421 503 5,253 1,279 3,387 588 5,527 1,272 3,660 595 6,913 1,210 5,073 630 7,646 1,180 5,805 661 48.7 45.0 60.0 27.8 53.2 48.9 67.6 26.1 53.7 48.4 68.8 25.3 59.0 51.8 75.7 23.6 61.2 53.2 78.6 22.9 3 1980 1982 19S0 1095 Women and minorities. During the 1982-95 period, the number of women and minorities in the labor force are projected to grow faster than the overall labor force. The following tabulation shows total labor force growth and growth for women, blacks, and black and other minorities for the 1950-82 period, and projected growth, 1982-95: to a prime working-age population in itself induces an in crease in the overall participation rate, as prime-age persons are more likely to be in the labor force. The population ages 55 and older will continue to in crease. However, the participation rates for this group are projected to continue declining. For men, the increased pop ulation and declining participation have resulted in absolute declines in their number in the labor force. For women, this combination is expected to result in a relatively constant number in the labor force over the next decade. It is assumed that the new social security laws will not affect the trend of labor force participation for the population 55 and older between now and 1995. These variations in growth rates by age groups mean that persons ages 25 to 54 will account for a much greater share of the 1995 labor force than the 1982 labor force. Prime working-age persons (25 to 54) are expected to account for about 73 percent of the 1995 labor force, up from 61 percent in 1970, and 64 percent in 1982. The growing proportion of prime-age participants could favorably affect productivity because of the greater continuity of participation by women and because of the higher educational attainment of ail par ticipants. This continuity and educational attainment imply that the future labor force will be more experienced and better trained, compared with the 1970’s when younger workers (ages 16 to 24) accounted for a large share of labor force growth. The maturing of the labor force in the 1980’s and 1990’s means that employers may have difficulties find ing young workers. The decline in the number of youths will be particularly important to the Armed Forces, the single largest employer of young men. Total ..................... W o m en ................. Black and other .. Blacks ............. 1960 1970 1982 1990 1995 All participants .. 38.6 40.5 Men ........................ 39.3 40.5 Women .................. 36.7 40.4 White ....................... — 40.7 Black and other... — 38.2 39.0 39.4 38.3 39.3 36.6 34.8 35.3 34.2 35.0 32.8 35.9 36.4 35.3 36.1 34.8 37.3 37.8 36.8 37.5 36.3 197082 198290 199095 1.3 2.4 — — 1.7 3.1 1.8 — 2.4 3.5 3.6 — 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.8 Economic dependency. Around 1986, more of the popula tion should be in the labor force than not in the labor force. The economic dependency ratio, the number of persons not in the labor force divided by those in the labor force, was high in the 1960’s, but declined sharply through the 1970’s as the baby-boom generation and women entered the labor force in large numbers. During the 1980’s and 1990’s, the ratio should continue to decline, but at a considerably more moderate pace, reflecting only the continued increases in participation rates for women. The numerator of the economic dependency ratio can be disaggregated into all persons who are (1) under age 16, (2) between ages 16 and 64, and (3) age 65 and over. The denominator of the ratio in each instance is the total labor force. The following tabulation shows the economic de pendency ratio for 1960 to 1982 and projected for 1990 and 1995 for these age groups. The differences in median age between men and women and between whites and black and other minorities reflect the age mix of the respective labor forces. For example, in 1982, men ages 55 and over accounted for 14.4 percent of the male labor force; women ages 55 and over accounted for only 12.7 percent of the female labor force. These me dian age differences between the two groups are projected to continue. 196070 Women, both white and black, will account for about two-thirds of the labor force growth during the 1980’s and 1990’s, about the same proportion as in the 1950’s. During the 1960’s and 1970’s, when men of the baby-boom gen eration entered the labor force, the proportion of growth attributed to women dropped despite rapid increases in their participation rates. With the young men of the baby-boom generation now in the labor force, the share of labor force growth attributed to women will be greater over the next decade. The black and other group, should account for slightly more than 21 percent of the additions to the labor force during the 1982-90 period, increasing to nearly 28 percent in the 1990-95 period. Since 1960, this group’s proportion of overall growth has been growing despite the continuing drop in participation by black men. The black labor force is projected to grow at almost twice the white rate, reflecting the younger age structure of the black population. The two groups just discussed overlap. White women and black and other men and women together will account for 72.4 percent of the 1982-90 labor force growth, and 75.8 percent of the 1990-95 growth. These two groups accounted for only 66.8 percent of the 1970-82 labor force growth. Median age. The median age of the labor force will rise slightly over the next 10 to 15 years. The median age was fairly constant between 1950 and 1970, but dropped sharply between 1970 and 1980 when the baby-boom generation entered the labor force. The following tabulation shows the median age of the labor force for 1950 to 1980 and the projected median age for 1990 and 1995, by sex and race: 1950 195060 4 1960 1970 Total population .. 150.4 138.5 Underage 16 ............ 81.45 72.1 50.2 46.8 Age 16.to 64 ............ Age 65 and over .. 18.7 19.6 1982 106.5 48.9 36.0 21.6 1990 96.4 45.2 28.4 22.5 1995 94.1 45.2 26.0 22.9 only through the mid-1980’s) the 1995 participation rate and labor force for these women would be considerably higher than in the middle scenario, about 9.6 million more persons, or 7.3 percent. (See table 3.) On the other hand, it is possible that the participation rates for women ages 20 to 44 will not accelerate and instead will continue the modest upward trend shown during the 1979-82 period. If this occurs, there would be 6.3 million fewer persons (4.8 percent) in the 1995 labor force. The two differences between the low, middle, and high assumptions concerning female participation rates, are sub stantial. The high scenario reflects female participation rates nearly converging to the higher male participation rates. The low scenario reflects a sharp deceleration from the trends of the T970’s. Over the 1979-82 period, the growth of female rates slowed, possibly in response to the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions. However, it might also reflect a change in the long-run trend. The low scenario, in essence, assumes that the recent trends reflect new secular trends for women. The low-growth path assumes a more modest growth which is not a reversal of the upward growth in female participation rates or shifts in marital status. For example, regardless of which scenario is used, women should account for 65 to 66 percent of increases in the labor force. This stability occurs because increases in female participation will be 4he greatest source of labor force growth over the next decade. A second demographic assumption in the middle scenario concerns the relative trends in black-white participation. Over the past two decades, the rates for black and white men have been diverging. (The rates for black and white women, on the other hand, appear to have converged, if not crossed.) The low and middle scenarios assume these respective trends will continue. The high scenario assumes that the rates for black and white men will converge to the higher white male rates. In the low scenario, black and other minorities account for 25.8 percent of the increase in the labor force over the 1982-95 period; in the high scenario, 23.9 percent; and in the middle scenario, 23.3 percent. The drop (from 50 to 36 persons per hundred workers) in the ratio attributed to the 16- to 64-year-olds reflects the steady entry of women into the work force. The economic dependency ratio for persons under age 16 has declined over the 1960 to 1980 period, as the baby-boom generation and women entered the labor market. During the next decade, the ratio should be unchanged despite the “ echo” of the baby boom, that is, the increase in the population attributed to the children of the baby-boom generation. The ratio for older workers is expected to rise slightly over the next de cade, and should continue to rise into the middle of the next century; currently, their ratio is the lowest of the three groups. These projected economic dependency ratios have several implications. There will be fewer children per labor force participant in the future, hence providing for primary and secondary education should be less of a burden. On the other hand, there will be more older persons not in the labor force per labor force participant, therefore, providing for retirement and the care of older workers should be slightly more of a burden. Alternative assumptions The middle scenario just discussed reflects underlying assumptions and could be significantly affected by changes in these assumptions, b l s developed alternative projections to examine the range of outcomes attached to any projection. Two sets of alternative projections were developed for the current projection: demographic alternatives and economic alternatives. The following tabulations show the size of the civilian labor force during 1970, 1980, and 1982 Civilian labor force (in millions) Total ............. 1970 1980 1982 82.8 106.9 110.2 and the projected size under each scenario for 1990 and 1995: Economic alternatives. Labor force projections are only one segment of the b l s projections program. The program in cludes gross national product projections, in total and by major demand and income components; industry output and employment projections; and occupational requirements projections. To emphasize the uncertainty of these varied projections, b l s traditionally develops several scenarios which cover a number of alternative assumptions yielding a rea sonably broad span of employment and gross national prod uct level. The alternative projections of the economy as a whole use different assumptions for fiscal policy, produc tivity growth, the unemployment rate, and the price level. At issue in these alternatives is the relationship between earnings and unemployment rates and labor force trends. Would alternative economic trends imply substantially or Civilian labor force (in millions) 1990 High demographic .. 131.3 High economic ........ 125.3 to 125.4 Middle ................................. 125.0 Low econom ic.......... 123.7 to 124.9 Low demographic . . . 120.3 1995 141.0 131.9 to 132.8 131.4 130.0 to 131.0 125.1 Demographic alternatives. One assumption in the middle scenario is that the growth in participation rates of women ages 20 to 44 will accelerate in the near term (that is, recover from the effects of the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions) before tapering off. If the rate of female labor force participation continues to accelerate through the late 1980’s (rather than 5 modestly different labor force trends? According to the mod els, modest changes in the unemployment rate for all work ers and in real earnings of workers lead to relatively small changes in the total labor force. (See table 4.) Alternative projections of labor force trends have been made with two econometric models. One, labeled the mar ital status model, focuses on the behavior of detailed labor force trends.6 The second model, labeled the macro labor force model, focuses solely on total labor force trends in the context of a broader economic model.7 The methodology for these economic scenarios is substantially different from that used in other b l s labor force projections. The assump tions here are based on ecohometric models, while the other alternatives were based on a demographic methodology. The marital status model relates participation rates for 16 age, sex, and marital status groups to real earnings of full time workers by sex, and the overall unemployment rate. The model was estimated with Standard Metropolitan Sta tistical Area data for 34 cities during the 1973—80 period. The data are constructed from the micro files of the Bureau of the Census’ Current Population Survey. The following tabulation shows the unemployment rate and annual earn ings data used in the model. Table 3. Unemployment rate: All workers High ......................... Middle ..................... Low ......................... Real annual earnings (1972 dollars): Men High ......................... Middle ..................... Low ......................... Women High ......................... Middle ..................... Low ......................... 1982 1990 1995 9.7 9.7 9.7 5.4 6.3 6.5 5.2 6.0 6.8 $7,497 7,497 7,497 $8,698 8,905 8,941 $9,074 9,804 10,148 4,441 4,441 4,44 i 5,152 5,275 5,296 5,375 5,807 6,011 Developing the alternative scenarios with the marital sta tus model required two steps. First, a middle scenario of labor force growth was developed for the 16 groups. This middle scenario for the 16 marital status groups was con strained to replicate the middle scenario described earlier. It was developed as in previous projections— extrapolating historical trends. Second, the differences in the two ex planatory variables among scenarios were multiplied by the Projections of the civilian labor force in 1995, by alternative dem ographic scenarios Labor force (in thousands) Labor group P articip a tio n rate scenario M id d le scenario Low scenario Total, age 16 and over .............................................. 140,973 131,387 125,058 M e n........................................................................ 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ........................................................ Women ................................................................... 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ....................................................... 73,005 11,321 52,545 9,139 67,968 69,970 10,573 51,358 8,039 61,417 1 1 ,1 5 5 1 0 ,5 5 7 49,525 7,288 White ........................................................................ M en........................................................................ 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ........................................................ Women ................................................................... 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ........................................................ High scenario M id d le scenario Low scenario 72.7 67.8 64.5 44,852 6,008 67,541 10,013 50,130 7,398 57,517 9,792 41,964 5,761 79.4 79.8 95.5 40.1 66.7 75.7 86.9 24.2 76.1 74.5 93.4 35.3 60.3 71.6 78.7 19.9 73.5 70.6 91.2 32.5 56.5 66.4 73.6 19.1 119,560 62,451 9,463 44,815 8,173 57,109 9,330 41,384 6,395 112,393 60,757 9,271 44,232 7,254 51,636 9,025 37,433 5,178 107,170 58,839 8,755 43,406 6,678 48,331 8,316 35,097 4,918 72.5 79.2 80.8 95.7 40.2 66.4 77.9 87.0 24.1 68.1 77.0 79.1 94.5 35.6 60.0 75.4 78.7 19.5 65.0 74.6 74.7 92.7 32.8 56.2 69.5 73.8 18.6 Black and o th e r.......................................................... M e n........................................................................ 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ........................................................ Women ................................................................... 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ........................................................ 21,413 10,554 1,858 7,730 966 10,859 1,825 8,141 893 18,994 9,213 1,302 7,126 785 9,781 1,532 7,419 830 17,889 8,709 1,253 6,725 722 9,182 1,471 6,863 847 74.8 80.0 75.9 94.6 40.3 68.7 65.7 86.8 24.5 65.1 70.2 52.7 87.1 32.8 61.2 78.7 22.9 61.9 66.7 50.9 82.3 29.9 58.0 53.2 72.9 23.1 Black.......................................................................... M en........................................................................ 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ............ .......................................... Women................................................................... 16 to 24 ............................................................ 25 to 54 ............................................................ 55 and over ........................................................ 16,517 8,125 1,432 5,974 719 8,392 1,407 6,311 674 14,833 7,297 1,055 5,549 583 7,646 1,180 5,805 661 13,984 6,775 , 984 5,246 549 7,217 1,148 5,413 650 72.5 79.4 73.9 93.4 38.2 67.0 63.8 85.7 23.6 65.6 70.7 54.3 87.1 31.0 61.7 53.8 78.1 22.3 61.7 66.4 50.4 82.2 29.1 57.8 51.8 73.2 22.7 High 6 - 55.4 Table 4. Civilian labor fore© by alternative economic scenarios, 1982 and projected to 1995 Participation rate Labor force (in thousands) Labor group 1982 High scenario kiddie scenario Low scenario 130,977 64.0 68.0 67.8 67.6 69,867 4,047 24,619 11,062 13,557 19,401 14', 937 4.463 13,784 11,523 2,261 8,017 76.6 56.7 90.8 97.1 85.3 95.3 96.8 89.4 91.2 93.4 80.8 43.8 76.2 62.8 90.5 95.6 86.7 95.5 97.0 90.9 91.4 93.8 81.0 35.5 76.1 62.9 62.9 90.4 95.6 75.9 63.0 90.4 95.6 61,417 3,761 23,096 11,087 12,009 17,427 11,932 5,495 11,125 7,798 3,327 6,008 61,110 3,749 22,975 11,021 11,954 17,350 11,902 5,448 11,015 7,708 3,307 8,017 52.6 51.4 68.8 61.6 77.7 68.0 64.1 79.0 61.6 57.9 72.3 22.7 131,387 130,000 64.0 1982 High scenario Middle scenario Low scenario "total.......................................................................... 110,204 131,887 131,387 Men ..................................................................... 16 to 19 ............................................................ 20 to 34 ............................................................ Married .......................................................... Other .............................................................. 35 to 44 ............................................................ Married .......................................................... Other .............................................................. 45 to 54 ............................................................ Married ......................................................... Other .............................................................. 55 and over ....................................................... 62,450 4,470 21,385 14.212 12,185 12,781 10,321 2,460 9,784 8,320 1,464 9,019 70,101 4,032 24,647 11,071 13,576 19,497 14,971 4,527 13,847 11,553 2,295 8,076 69,970 4,043 24,635 11,071 13,564 19,446 14,956 4,490 13,807 11,531 2,276 8,039 Women ................................................................ 16 to 19 ............................................................ 20 to 34 ............................................................ Married ......................................................... Other .............................................................. 35 to 44 ............................................................ Married “......................................... ................ Other..............................-............................... 45 to 54 ............................................................ Married ......................................................... Other .............................................................. 55 and over ....................................................... 47,755 4,056 17,128 10,592 10,279 9,651 6,723 2,928 7,105 4,993 2,111 6,073 61,786 3,777 23,224 11,160 12,064 17,526 11,968 5,557 11,282 7,927 3,356 5,976 Macro labor force model: T o tal.......................................................................... 110,204 132,800 Marital status model: respective coefficients; then the products were added to ob tain the differences from the middle scenario. For the marital status model, the range between the high and low scenarios is only 900,000 persons in the total labor force and .4 percentage points in participation rates. (See table 4.) The groups most affected by the changes between the scenarios are married women ages 45 to 54, nonmarried women ages 35 to 44, married women ages 20 to 34, and nonmarried men ages 45 to 54 and ages 35 to 44. The finding that these groups are more sensitive than others to the changes in economic trends is consistent with the slower trends in participation rates during the 1979-82 period. The projected labor force participation rates for these five groups are all projected to change by between 1.0 and 1.7 percentage points between the high and low economic scenario. The macro labor force model relates the labor force par ticipation rate of all workers to the unemployment rate and* real wages. As noted, the macro labor force model is part of a large-scale quarterly macroeconometric model that al lows for interaction of labor force trends with employment, labor productivity, and other trends. For the macro labor force model, the range between the high and low scenarios is 2.8 million persons and 1.4 per centage points in the total participation rates. The difference between the high and low scenarios for the macro labor force model, when compared to the marital status model, reflects, in part, the interaction of labor force trends with economic trends in the context of a macroeconometric mode! 86.6 86.6 95.1 96.8 89.6 90.9 93.5 79.8 35.2 60.7 58.5 82.3 80.8 83.6 83.2 81.8 86.5 70.5 68.4 76.0 19.9 60.3 58.3 81.8 80.3 83.2 82.8 81.5 85.6 69.5 67.3 75.3 20.0 60.0 58.1 81.4 79.8 82.9 82.4 81.3 84.8 68.8 66.5 74.9 20.0 66.9 67.8 67.1 95.3 96.9 90.2 91.1 93.6 80.3 35.3 and, in part, the structural differences between the two labor force models.8 A comparison of the low and high economic scenarios with the middle scenario indicates that changes in economicassumptions do not result in substantial changes in labor force projections. The most important finding across the four economic scenarios is that projections with two strikingly different labor force models yield small differences between the scen arios. By contrast, the difference between the high and low demographic scenarios is 15.9 million in 1995. Thus, the key factors in the size of the future labor force are demo graphic in nature. Revisions reflect 198© census Several factors necessitated updating the projections pub lished in 1980: revisions in the historical labor force esti mates, revisions in the projected population (which are used in determining the size of the future labor force), and avail ability of labor force participation rates for the 1979—82 period.9 The historical labor force data were revised to in corporate the 1980 census. The revised population projec tions reflect incorporation of the 1980 population estimates and new, higher assumptions about life expectancy and net migration, and new, lower assumptions about fertility lev els. These changes resulted in a larger projected population for 1995, with 8.8 million more persons over age 16. The new population projection alone would have raised the 1995 7 labor force orojections by 5.3 million persons (after ac counting for population shifts by age, sex, and race). Offsetting the population growth is a lower projected change in labor force participation rates. This reflects the 1979-82 changes in participation which were lower than those of 1962-79. The 1979-82 changes reflect both cyclical factors and trend factors, such as an increased fertility after years of steady decline. If the previously projected participation rates were applied to the new population projections, the 1995 labor force would have been 132.4 million persons, 1 million more than the current projection. The most notable change in projected participation rates occurred for women ages 25 to 34, a group for which bls has consistently un derprojected participation. The rate for this group was low ered 2 percentage points in the current projection to 81.7 percent, compared with 83.7 percent in the previous pro jection. Still, participation for this group is expected to grow 13.7 percentage points over the 1982-95 period, the largest projected increase for any labor group. Projected partici pation rates for several groups have been revised upward, notably for men ages 35 to 54, and women 35 and older. The following tabulation compares the previous and the revised projections of the 1995 labor force: 1980 projection 1983 projection Difference 127,542 67,611 59,931 109,292 18,250 131,387 69,970 61,417 112,393 18,994 3,845 2,359 1,486 3,101 744 Civilian labor force (in thousands)............... Men .......................... Women .................... White ........................ Black and o th e r___ 1These projections replace those in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ The 1995 labor force: a first l o o k Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 1121. For an evaluation o f earlier projections, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ How accurate were the 1980 labor force projections?” Monthly Labor Review, July 1982, pp. 15-21. 2The labor force (civilian labor force and resident Armed Forces) is projected to be 126,577,000 in 1990 and 133,018,000 in 1995. Of these, 57,415,000 will be women in 1990 and 61,582,000 will be women in 1995. Because there is no age or race detail in the resident Armed Forces measure o f the labor force, this article is based on the civilian labor force. 3 As with other current bls presentations of data by race, this article presents data for blacks; however, for historical comparison, data are also presented for the black and other group, which also includes American Indians, Eskimos, and other minorities. Participation rate ........ Men ......................... Women ................... White ....................... Black and other . . . . 1980 projection 1983 projection 68.6 76.8 61.2 68.8 67.0 67.8 76.1 60.3 68.1 65.7 Difference - .8 - .7 - .9 - .7 - 1.3 B ased on bls ’ projections, several significant changes in labor force trends are expected during the next decade: The total labor force will grow more slowly during the next decade than during the past decade. © Women will account for a greater proportion of labor force growth in the decade ahead (nearly two-thirds) than they did over the past decade; © Blacks and other minority groups will account for a greater proportion of overall labor force growth, about one-quarter during the next decade; © The younger members of the labor force, ages 16 to 24, will decline in absolute numbers. © The number of prime-age members of the labor force, those ages 25 to 54, will grow faster than the total labor force, 1.0 percentage point per year faster. o These projections reflect the changing demographic struc ture of the U.S. population: the aging of the baby-boom generation and the growth of the black population. These general conclusions hold for several scenarios concerning future trends in labor force participation for detailed groups, although the specific projections differ. □ Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 922 (Bureau of the Census, 1982). 6For illustrations of other uses of the marital status model, see James E. Duggan, “ Labor force participation of older workers” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, forthcoming; and James E. Duggan, “ Relative price variability and the labor supply of married persons.” Both papers are available from the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Pro jections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7 The macro labor force model is the labor force equation in the Chase Econometric Model. For a description of the model, see Arthur J. Andreassen and others, “ Economic outlook for the 1990’s; three scenarios for economic growth,” pp. 9-21. 4 For a short description o f the bls demographic labor force projection methodology, see BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982), Chapter 18; for a complete description, see BLS Economic Growth Model System Used for Projections to 1990, Bulletin 2112 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982), Chapter 2. 8 bls’ alternative scenarios of gross national product, industry output and employment trends and occupational requirements use the macro labor force model’s projections of total labor force. This was done because of the small differences between the economic scenarios of labor force trends and because the macro labor force is part of the macroeconometric model of the economic projections. 5 Among the assumptions o f the Census Bureau’s projections of the population is that the total fertility rate will rise from 1.83 in 1980 to 1.96 in 2000, and then will decrease to 1.90 in 2050; and that life expectancy will rise from 78.3 in 1981 to 81.3 in 2005 for women, 70.7 to 73.3 for men. See Projections of the Population of the United States: 1982 to 2050, 9 For a discussion of the revisions in labor force estimates due to the 1980 Census of the Population, see Kenneth D. Buckley, Jennifer Marks, and Ronald J. Statt, “ Revisions in the Current Population Survey Begin ning in January 1982,” Employment and Earnings, February 1982, pp. 7 15. Economic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenarios for economic growth Alternative monetary andfiscal assumptions suggest quite different trends in GNP and employment through 1995; in all versions, growth tapers after 1988, reflecting slower rates of population and laborforce increase A rthur J. A ndreassen , N orman C. S aunders , B etty W. S u and spread in gross national product (gnp) and employment growth to 1995. By 1995, real gnp is projected to range between $2.1 and $2.3 trillion, with total employment between 123.6 and 134.1 million jobs. In all three versions, job and production growth tapers during the latter part of the period, primarily in response to slower projected rates of growth of the pop ulation and labor force.2 Following are historical and pro jected rates of growth for real gnp , real disposable income, and employment: The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared trend projec tions of growth in aggregate and industry demand for the 1982-95 period, updating prior projections to 1990 and extending the analysis to 1995.1 The projections are part of a Bureau program of studies aimed at analyzing mediumterm economic growth and the implications for the structure of employment by industry and occupation. The new esti mates consist of a moderate-growth case, and high-growth and low-growth alternatives, which examine the effects of alternate policies on U.S. econom ic growth, distribution of demand, and employment. It should be noted that none of the three projections should be favored as the most likely. The intent in preparing them was not to forecast future economic performance but, rather, to examine the implications of a reasonable range of demand growth over the projection period. The projections represent only three of many possible responses of the economy to differing fiscal and monetary stimulae. A different perspec tive on the inner workings of the U.S. aggregate economy could easily lead one to arrive at completely different results. For this reason, the high-growth and low-growth alternatives should not be viewed as the “ good” forecast and the “ bad” forecast, but rather as vehicles for generating a reasonable Disposable income Employment . . . . 3.7 3.5 2.2 1.6 3.9 4.3 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 Low growth: 1982-90 ............. . 1990-95 ............. . 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.7 1.4 1.6 Moderate growth: 1982-90 ............. . 1990-95 ............. . 3.2 2.5 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.5 High growth: 1982-90 ............. . 1990-95 ............. . 3.8 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.3 1.7 Historical: 1955-68 1968-73 1973-77 1977-82 The authors are economists in the Office of Economic Growth and Em ployment Projections, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. GNP 9 ............. ............. ............. ............. box on pages 10-11 for a discussion of the model used to develop the aggregate projections.) In terms of the real rate of growth, the low-trend projections are comparable to the 1973-82 experience, and the hightrend projection corresponds more to that of the 1960’s. Following is a detailed discussion of the assumptions and results of the moderate-growth alternative, both in terms of aggregate economic activity and industry demand patterns. A summary of the low-trend and high-trend results is in cluded. Other articles in this issue examine the b l s projec tions of labor force, industry output and employment, and occupational demand. Demographic. The middle-growth projections of U.S. pop ulation, developed by the Census Bureau, were chosen for the moderate-growth scenario. The population age 16 and over is projected to increase by 21.6 million between 1982 and 1995, an average annual rate of growth of 0.9 percent. As in prior projections, the population rate of growth slows over the projection horizon, dropping from 1.1 percent an nually between 1982 and 1988 to 0.8 percent each year between 1988 and 1995. The civilian labor force grows somewhat more rapidly during the projection period, reflecting generally increasing participation rates and the shift of persons into age categories with traditionally higher labor force participation. The ci- Moderate growth assumptions To develop the moderate-growth projections, assump tions were made concerning demographics, fiscal and mon etary policy, foreign economic conditions, energy, and miscellaneous items.3 Those variables having the largest impact on the projections are discussed below. (Refer to the BLS projections procedures cification and expansion. After studying the problem, the deci sion was made to look to the private sector for a macro model that would satisfy the needs of Bureau economists and that would, at the same time, remove the burden of periodic data base main tenance and model reestimation from the Bureau staff. A model of the size and complexity deemed necessary for an effective evaluation of U.S. economic growth potential had required that a significant proportion of staff time be allocated to such routine maintenance. For this reason and because of staff and other re source limitations, a competitive procurement process was ini tiated in January 1982 and a contract was awarded to Chase Econometrics Associates, Inc., in October 1982. Under the terms of this agreement, the Bureau now uses the Chase macro model to develop its projections. The Chase model is a quarterly model of the U.S. economy, and is composed of 312 behavioral equations and 275 identities, thus determining 587 endogenous variables. In addition, the model contains 110 exogenous variables. The model can be conve niently decomposed into 13 sectors: (1) consumption, (2) business fixed investment, (3) residential investment, (4) change in busi ness inventories, (5) foreign trade, (6) Federal government, (7) State and local government, (8) employment and hours, (9) financial, (10) income, (11) wages and prices, (12) industrial production, and (13) energy. Assumptions are specified for the 110 exogenous variables. The model is simulated and the results are analyzed for consis tency and reasonableness. Modifications to the exogenous var iables and to the behavioral relationships are incorporated into the model until a reasonable set of results has been obtained. For the industry output projections, the U.S. economy is dis aggregated to 156 producing sectors, an exhaustive grouping which combines both the public and private sectors. The frame work for this procedure is an input-output model that is prepared for a base period by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The first step at the industry level is to disaggregate the g n p estimate from the aggregate projections to a set of demands by industry. This projected in- The Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares projections on a 2year cycle, using the Economic Growth Model System. This system is composed of a group of separate but not unrelated processes. Projections are produced in the following areas: (1) labor force; (2) aggregate economic performance; (3) industry final demand and total industry production; (4) industry employment levels; and (5) occupational employment by industry. Each block of the projections depends upon inputs from an earlier stage and feeds logically into the next. The labor force projections use Bureau of the Census popu lation projections by age, sex, and race, based on trends in birth rates, death rates, and net migration. With the population pro jections in hand, b l s projects labor force participation rates— the percent of each group in the population who will be working or seeking work— for 64 age, sex, and race groups. The labor force participation rate projection for each group is developed by: (a) analyzing past rates of growth over the 1962-81 period or for selected subperiods; (b) selecting the rate for a period deemed most appropriate for each group; and (c) modifying that rate if past trends are judged not likely to continue throughout the entire projection period. The levels of anticipated labor force are then calculated by applying the projected participation rates to the Bureau of the Census population projections. The aggregate economic projections or gross national prod uct, in total and by major demand and income category, use the b l s labor force and Census population projections as inputs. Consistent economic scenarios are developed to provide aggre gate controls for the various categories of demand and employ ment. These scenarios are selected to encompass a band around likely growth of the economy in the future. Later stages of the projection process develop industry-level projections consistent with these aggregate data. jj The Bureau’s aggregate economic projections have, in the past, been prepared with a modified version of the Thurow econo metric model of the U.S. economy. Following the last round of projections, it was determined that the b l s macro model was [ inadequate for further projections studies without major respe 10 Nondefense purchases of goods and services in real terms are expected to decline in the 1983-87 period, reaching $35.8 billion in 1987, $1.8 billion below the 1982 level. This reflects some employment declines, as well as general cutbacks in operating funds for many programs. Nondefense purchases are then assumed to grow, in real terms, by about 0.5 to 1.0 percent each year to 1990, and to accelerate somewhat to the 2.5- to 3.0-percent range during the first half of the next decade. Social security benefit payments are expected to grow in nominal terms at an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the 1982— 88 period, and by 7.1 percent each year between 1988 and 1995. No real benefit increases are assumed through 1988. The growth in social security payments is generated by inflation and by expanding client population only. After 1988, some resumption of real benefit growth is assumed, on the order of 0.5 percent to 1 percent annually. vilian labor force is projected to attain a level of 131.4 million by 1995, an increase of just under 20 million from 1982. This represents average annual growth of 1.6 percent, 1982-88, and 1.0 percent between 1988 and 1995. The moderate-growth alternative uses the medium-growth pro jection of the civilian labor force discussed on pages 1-8 of this issue. The labor force projections in the low-trend and high-trend versions were generated by the macro model described on page 7. Federal receipts and expenditures. General fiscal restraint throughout the remainder of this decade is the basic char acteristic of the moderate-growth government expenditure and tax policies. Federal defense purchases of goods and services are assumed to increase at a real rate of 4.1 percent each year between 1982 and 1986. Thereafter, growth is assumed to drop to the 0.5- to 1.0-percent range to 1995. dustry demand, in conjunction with a projected input-output ta ble, is used to calculate total industrial production. The projected changes in input-output coefficients in the input-output model capture— among other factors— expected changes in technology. Finally, the employments necessary to produce those levels of output are estimated through use of projected industry produc tivity. Aggregate demand projections are available from the macro model for 15 categories of consumption, 8 types of investment, 15 end-use categories of foreign trade, and 3 categories of gov ernment spending. Where possible, a further disaggregation of the control values is undertaken: Purchases of producers’ durable equipment is divided into 23 types of capital equipment. Gov ernment spending is grouped into 12 categories. To allow for shifts in the composition of aggregate demand and in the industrial makeup of a given demand category, “ bridge tables” are projected. The bridge table is a set of percent dis tributions for each given demand category, such as one of the consumption groups or investment, among each of the 156 in dustries in the b l s input-output model. The projection of the input-output table accounts for the changes in the input pattern for each industry. In general, two types of changes are made: (a) those made to the inputs of a specific industry after an industry study (as for the changes in inputs in the aluminum industry); and, (b) those made to the inputs of all industries for a specific commodity (as for increased use of busi ness services across a wide spectrum of industries). Output re quirements by industry are the result of multiplying the projected input-output table by projected changes in level and distribution of final demand. The projected changes in industry output are important factors determining the projections o f industry employment. However, converting output projections into employment estimates requires productivity-by-industry projections and measures of changes in average hours by industry. This is accomplished using a regres sion model with an equation for each industry that estimates worker-hours as a function of the following variables: (1) the industry’s output, (2) capacity utilization, (3) the relative price of labor, and (4) a technology variable as approximated by the output/capital ratio. Worker-hours are then converted into jobs by dividing by average annual hours, which are projected using time trends. The sum of employment by industry is controlled to total employment as estimated in the macro model. Several iterations are usually necessary for a reasonable balance to be achieved. Projections of employment for the 156 sectors in the Economic Growth Model are disaggregated to 372 industries corresponding to the 3-digit Standard Industrial Classification (sic). This is done to match the industry mix of the industry-occupation matrix de scribed later. The disaggregation is accomplished via a timeseries regression model. The disaggregated 3-digit sic industry employment projections are reviewed in light of a broad range of economic information. When the industry projections are con sidered final, they are used as inputs to the process of projecting occupational employment. One of the main resources in making occupational employment projections is the industry-occupation matrix. This matrix is pro duced from data collected by State employment agencies and brought together by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce national estimates. The data are collected from employers on a 3-year cycle— manufacturing one year, nonmanufacturing the next year, and the balance of nonmanufacturing (trade, trans portation, communications, and utilities) the final year. The data from the 3-year cycle are put on the same employment basis to form annual average estimates for occupational employment in each of the 3-digit sic industries. The matrix contains over 1,500 detailed occupations, although most industries do not have em ployment in many of these occupations. The major occupational cells of the industry-occupation matrix for the base year are reviewed and adjustments are made to the cells in the projected matrix to account for changes expected to take place in the industries because of technological change, product mix shifts, and other factors. The changes introduced into the input-output model for expected technological change may also change the staffing patterns in industries using the new technology. (For example, one would expect greater general employment of computer specialists as computer technology spreads across industries.) The projected industry employment data are applied to the projected industry occupational employment pat terns and the new cell employment is aggregated across all in dustries to yield total occupational employment for the projected year. 11 Medicare payments, on the other hand, are expected to grow at a 10.1-percent nominal rate over the 1982-88 pe riod, reflecting client population growth, higher-than-average medical care cost inflation, and some real benefit increases, on the order of about 1 percent annually. After 1988, the medicare rate of growth drops to 8 percent an nually as inflation continues to moderate. Unemployment insurance benefits decline sharply through 1990 as the economy recovers from the 1982 recession and the number of unemployed drops. Some slight growth is apparent after 1990 as the unemployment rate stabilizes. Other transfer payments, including Federal retirement pro grams and veterans’ benefits, are expected to increase at a nominal rate of 8.5 percent annually between 1982 and 1988, and at 7.9 percent during the 1988-95 period. Finally, grants to State and local governments are assumed to grow only with inflation during the entire period. On the revenue side of the Federal government books, projected personal tax rates reflect currently mandated tax cuts and the indexation of personal taxes for the remainder of the period. Corporate profits taxes are assumed to stabilize at about 26 percent of profits for the entire projection period. Indirect business taxes are expected to increase annually by about 5.8 percent, while social insurance contributions are governed by the currently mandated tax rates and income base determination methods. The net effect of these policies is a Federal budget deficit (nipa basis) that declines steadily from $180 billion in 1983 to about $70 billion by 1990, and then remains at roughly that level for the remainder of the projection period. of our major trading partners. The following table sum marizes the assumed annual percentage rates of growth of the variables in the macro model that reflect these consid erations: M onetary policy. In the financial sector, 10 interest rates E nergy. Domestic oil production, currently running at about are derived, with the Federal funds rate providing the key to the overall term structure of rates. The major assumption affecting the determination of the Federal funds rate is the rate of growth of the nonborrowed monetary base, excluding currency. It is assumed that this variable will grow at a rate close to 10 percent during 1983, dropping to about 7 percent during the 1984-87 period, and then to the 5.5- to 6-percent range for the remainder of the projection period. This reflects an assumed willingness on the part of the Federal Reserve Board to loosen up somewhat on monetary controls as t^e economy recovers from the 1982 recession. Also affecting the financial sector is the assumption con cerning the rate of growth of money-market related mutual funds. This variable affects the distribution of the money stock between the aggregate money supply measures Ml and M2. Money-market funds are expected to increase at a strong pace during the mid-1980’s (about 12 to 15 percent annually), but this will taper in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s to about a 10-percent average rate of growth. 10 million barrels per day (mbpd ), is assumed to decline to 9.5 mbpd by 1987 and to remain at that level thereafter. Petroleum imports, on the other hand, are expected to in crease steadily from 5.1 mbpd in 1982 to 7.8 mbpd in 1990 and 8 mbpd in 1995. The price of imported oil is assumed to rise from the 1983 price of $28 per barrel to $41 in 1990 and to $52 by 1995. This rise is consistent with overall inflation but does not reflect any real increase in the barrel price of imported crude oil. Affecting transportation-related demand for petroleum are assumptions concerning the average miles-per-gallon of new domestically produced autos, and the ratio of imports to domestic autos. Mileage figures are assumed to improve from the 1982 level of 26.7 mpg to 37.8 by 1990 and 41.7 by 1995. After declining to a more normal share of 24 percent in 1983, imported autos are expected to capture more of the U.S. auto market, accounting for 30 percent of domestic sales by 1990. The share is assumed to stabilize through 1995 at that level. Foreign econom ic conditions. Exports of domestically pro Implications off moderate growth duced goods and services are influenced primarily by in ternational financial markets and by the economic condition Real gnp is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent over the 1982-90 period, reflecting re Industrial production, world Wholesale price index, rest-of-world Average value o f the U.S. dollar4 Historical: 1968-73 ....... 1973-77 ....... 1977-82 ........ 0.9 0.7 11.8 10.0 - 3 .0 2.4 3.3 Low growth: 1982-90 ........ 1990-95 ....... 3.0 2.9 8.8 7.9 1.6 0.0 Moderate growth: 1982-90 ....... 1990-95 ........ 3.2 3.1 8.3 6.9 2.1 1.3 High growth: 1982-90 ....... 1990-95 ....... 3.3 3.4 8.5 7.3 2.2 1.5 — — The assumed growth rates for industrial production appear high from a historical perspective. The table is deceptive, however, because the selected historical years are repre sentative of peak-to-peak periods in this country. The world economy tends to lag the U.S. business cycle and, as a result, the historical growth rates presented above are not truly representative of long-term trend growth patterns. Gen erally, world industrial production has tended to increase at a 2.5- to 3.5-percent rate during trend growth periods. 12 Over the coming decade, many of the factors that con tributed to the productivity slowdown are expected to im prove. As a result, the projections for productivity are quite optimistic when compared to more recent experience. Pro ductivity in the private nonfarm sector is expected to in crease at a rate of 1.7 percent annually between 1982 and 1990 and by 1.4 percent each year during the 1990-95 period. Increases in manufacturing labor productivity are expected to average 2.2 percent annually over the entire period. Developments related to employment and labor produc tivity are discussed by Valerie Personick elsewhere in this issue. covery from the 1982 recession. After 1990, gnp growth moderates somewhat to an annual rate of 2.5 percent be tween 1990 and 1995 (table 1). This assumes a return to the long-term trend growth path following the recovery and the continuing slowdown in the rate of growth of the civilian labor force. Following is a summary of the projection results for each major sector of the economy. Prices. Projections for price change are truly optimistic in the moderate-growth scenario— at least compared to the more recent experience: Annual change, in percent deflator Personal consumption expenditures deflator Gross private domestic investment deflator ....... ....... ....... ....... 2.4 5.1 7.3 8.1 2.1 4.6 7.1 8.1 1.7 5.1 9.4 7.1 Moderate growth: 1982-90 ....... 1990-95 ....... 5.4 3.3 5.2 3.6 5.8 2.7 GNP Historical: 1955-68 1968-73 1973-77 1977-82 Personal consumption. Consumer spending is the largest component of gnp . In 1968, personal consumption expen ditures (pce) accounted for 60.0 percent of real gnp . The share increased to 63.2 percent in 1981 and to 65.3 percent in 1982. It should be noted that personal consumption ex penditures accounted for a large proportion of gnp in 1982 because of the rapid relative increase in the purchase of services during a recessionary period. After returning to a more normal share of gnp after 1983, consumer expendi tures are still expected to show a long-term upward trend, reaching 65.2 percent of gnp in 1995. The increase is due primarily to relatively higher disposable income and a slightly lower savings rate, as well as to the smaller share of gnp accounted for by government expenditures. Table 3 details the projections of 15 major categories of consumer spend ing. Because of price effects, new technology, the shifting population mix, and new household formation, consumers' behavior will exhibit some changes over the next decade. Purchases of consumer durables are projected to grow very strongly over the period— 5.1-percent average annual growth from 1982 to 1990 and 2.9 percent each year, 1990-95. All categories of durables are expected to increase strongly in the early period of the projections, but the largest growth is attributable to motor vehicles and to household appli ances. Generally speaking, durables purchases react quite sharply to increasing inflation and to swings in the business cycle because such purchases are easily put off until “ better times.’’ Two major reasons for the strong durables growth over the projection period are the greatly improved inflation situation and the lack of business-cycle swings built into the projection methods. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts dropped dramati cally during the 1982 recession. Sales of new motor vehicles were down 18 percent to 11.4 million units in 1980 and dipped to 10.4 million units in 1982, the worst slump in 20 years. The drop in new-car sales was largely accounted for by domestic autos, as imports continued to increase their share of the market during the 1982 recession. With cut-rate financing luring buyers, sales rebounded sharply in the final months of 1982. Demand for motor The moderation in inflation expectations is based on the relatively modest rate of recovery projected from the 1982 recession. Demand growth accelerates at a pace readily matched by production capacity, thus averting much of the demand pressure on prices apparent during recoveries from the 1969-70 and 1973-75 recessions. The 1981-82 reces sion also significantly dampened wage rate growth, a major impetus to renewed inflation during earlier recoveries. Employment and productivity. Civilian household employ ment is projected to increase by just over 24 million jobs between 1982 and 1995, as the unemployment rate declines from 9.7 percent in 1982 to 6.3 percent in 1990 and to 6.0 percent in 1995. (See table 2.) This represents average an nual growth in employment of 2 percent between 1982 and 1990 and of 1.1 percent between 1990 and 1995. There are 6.5 million new jobs in the goods-producing sector, and 17.3 million in the private service-producing industries. For the private nonfarm sector, the long-term average annual rate of productivity growth was 2.6 percent between 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, this rate dropped to 2.1 percent annually and even further, to 0.2 percent, during the 1973-82 period. The slowdown in productivity growth over the past decade has been attributed to many factors, including the influx of new workers into the labor force; slowing in capital accumulation per worker; emphasis on nonproductive types of investment, such as pollution control investment; and the remarkable increase in energy prices since 1973. 13 Table 1. G ross national product, 1968, 1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , 1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995 [Billions of 1972 dollars] 199 0 Item 1968 1973 197 7 1 99 5 1 982 High Moderate Low High Moderate Low Gross national product................................. 51,058.1 $1,255.0 $1,369.7 $1,485.4 $2,004.2 $1,915.5 $1,857.S $2,264.6 $2,166.9 $2,126.7 Personal consumption................................ Durables ................................................. Nondurables............................................ Services ................................................. 634.4 88.3 270.5 275.6 768.5 121.3 308.0 339.2 864.3 138.0 333.4 393.0 970.2 139.8 364.2 466.2 1,296.0 236.0 447.2 612.8 1,240.2 208.8 436.2 595.2 1,196.8 190.1 423.7 583.0 1,491.4 277.4 481.2 732.9 1,412.4 240.4 468.0 704.0 1,349.1 223.8 438.4 686.9 Gross private investment ............................ Equipment.............................................. Structures .............................................. Residential.............................................. Inventory change..................................... 161.6 66.8 42.8 43.1 9.0 217.5 90.7 47.4 62.3 17.2 214.2 99.9 40.4 60.7 13.3 194.5 112.7 53.4 37.8 -9 .4 342.1 166.2 62.8 97.8 15.3 305.7 149.1 61.5 80.5 14.6 250.1 132.4 45.0 63.6 9.0 405.0 202.8 76.9 113.1 12.2 337.2 177.2 70.1 78.1 11.9 285.7 159.6 44.6 69.6 11.9 Net exports................................................. Exports................................................... Im ports................................................... 1.9 61.2 59.3 15.5 97.3 81.8 22.0 112.9 90.9 28.9 147.3 118.4 34.1 206.7 172.6 48.8 202.3 153.5 83.0 206.5 123.5 22.8 261.7 238.9 85.9 260.0 174.1 148.4 267.9 119.4 Government................................................. Federal ................................................... State and local ....................................... 260.2 128.2 132.0 253.5 95.9 157.6 269.2 100.5 168.8 291.8 116.6 175.2 332.0 136.8 195.2 320.9 132.4 188.5 327.9 144.3 183.6 345.4 144.6 200.7 331.4 139.2 192.2 343.5 157.0 186.5 Gross national product................................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Personal consumption................................ Durables ................................................. Nondurables............................................ Services ................................................. 60.0 8.3 25.6 26.0 61.2 9.7 24.5 27.0 63.1 10.1 24.3 28.7 65.3 9.4 24.5 31.4 64.7 11.8 22.3 30.6 64.7 10.9 22.8 31.1 64.4 10.2 22.8 31.4 65.9 12.2 21.2 32.4 65.2 11.1 21.6 32.5 63.4 10.5 20.6 32.3 Gross private investment ............................ Equipment.............................................. Structures .............................................. Residential............................................... Inventory change..................................... 15.3 6.3 4.0 4.1 0.9 17.3 7.2 3.8 5.0 1.4 15.6 7.3 2.9 4.4 1.0 13.1 7.6 3.6 2.5 -0 .6 17.1 8.3 3.1 4.9 .8 16.0 7.8 3.2 4.2 .8 13.5 7.1 2.4 3.4 .5 17.9 9.0 3.3 5.0 .5 15.6 8.2 3.2 3.6 .5 13.4 7.5 2.1 3.3 .6 Net exports................................................. Exports................................................... Im ports................................................... .2 5.8 5.6 1.2 78 6.5 1.6 82 6.6 1.9 99 8.0 1.7 10 3 8.6 2.5 10 6 8.0 4.5 11 1 6.6 1.0 11 6 10.5 40 1? 0 8.0 7.0 12 6 5.6 Government................................................. Federal ................................................... State and local ....................................... 24.6 12.1 12.5 20.2 7.6 12.6 19.7 7.3 12.3 19.6 7.8 11.8 16.6 6.8 9.7 16.8 6.9 9.8 17.6 7.8 9.9 15.3 6.4 8.9 15.3 6.4 8.9 16.2 7.4 8.8 P ercent distribution A verage annual rate of change (in percent) Hiah 1 9 6 8 -7 3 1 9 7 3 -7 7 Low M oderate 1977 82 Gross national product ................................ 3.5 2.2 1.6 3.8 2.5 3.2 2.5 3.0 2.8 1990-95 2.7 Personal consumption ................................ Durables ................................................ Nondurables ........................................... Services.................................................. 3.9 6.5 2.6 4.2 3.0 3.3 2.1 3.7 2.3 0.3 1.8 3.5 3.7 6.8 2.6 3.5 2.8 3.3 1.5 3.6 3.1 5.1 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.9 1.4 3.4 2.9 4.3 1.9 3.2 2.7 3.9 1.9 2.8 2.4 3.3 0.7 3.3 Gross private Equipment Structures Residential investment.............................. .............................................. .............................................. .............................................. 6.1 6.3 2.1 7.6 -0.4 2.4 -3.9 -0.6 -1.9 2.4 5.7 -9.0 7.3 5.0 2.1 12.6 3.4 4.1 4.1 2.9 5.8 3.6 1.8 9.9 2.0 3.5 2.7 -0 .6 4.3 3.5 2.1 5.7 3.2 2.0 -2.1 7.4 2.7 3.8 -0.2 1.8 Exports ....................................................... Imports....................................................... 9.7 6.6 3.8 2.7 5.5 5.4 4.3 4.8 4.8 6.7 4.1 3.3 5.2 2.6 4.5 3.0 4.3 0.5 5.3 -0 .7 Government ................................................ Federal ................................................... State and local......................................... -0.5 -5.6 3.6 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.6 3.0 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.2 1,6 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.7 1.5 2.7 0.6 0.9 1.7 0.3 S ource : 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 1 9 8 2 -9 5 1 9 8 2 -9 0 Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics. down from the long-term trends is caused by continuing relative price increases, a projected decline in the entry of new drivers into the marketplace, and the assumption that imports will continue to improve their competitive position in this country. The following table summarizes purchase data for motor vehicles, historically and projected. vehicles and parts is expected to increase at a robust rate, averaging 5.8-percent growth between 1982 and 1990. This represents an increase in new domestic car sales to 8.6 million units by 1990. Although low by the standards of the 1960’s and 1970’s, this is still well above the average sales rate of 5.7 million domestic cars in 1982. The slow 14 V eh icles and parts as a percent o f pce (1 9 7 2 dollars) ......... N e w -v e h ic le s sales (m illio n s o f units) . . . N ew -ca r sales ......... D o m estic ............. Im ported .............. N ew -ligh t-truck sa les ...................... P ercent im port share, n ew c a r s .................... 1968 1973 1977 1982 1990 1995 6 .3 7 .4 7 .3 5 .9 7 .3 7 .0 13.6 11.4 9 .6 1.8 14.6 11.1 9 .0 2.1 10.4 8 .0 5 .7 2 .3 16.6 12.4 8 .6 3 .7 16.1 12.0 8 .4 3 .6 2 .3 3 .5 2 .4 4 .2 4.1 15.5 18.7 2 8 .3 3 0 .0 3 0 .0 — 9 .6 8 .6 1.0 — 10.7 are also expected to become increasingly important. Thus, considerable growth of 4.2 percent annually in the 1982— 95 period is projected, much higher than the growth rate of 2.9 percent for total consumption during the same period. Consumer purchases of nondurables are expected to ac count for progressively smaller shares of g n p throughout the projection period. Nondurables accounted for 25.6 per cent of g n p in 1968. The share dropped to 24.5 percent in 1982 and is projected to decline further to 22.8 percent and 21.6 percent of g n p in 1990 and 1995, as nondurables grow more in line with population than they did during the 1970’s. Food consumption has been declining as a proportion of total p c e over time, and it is expected to continue to do so through 1995. As a family’s real income increases, the percentage spent on food decreases. In 1982, purchases of food accounted for 19.0 percent of p c e , while by 1995, they are expected to decline to 15.8 percent. Particularly, demand for restaurant meals is projected to grow more slowly in the period than in recent years. During the last decade, a rapid increase in the number of working wives helped to boost restaurant sales. Female labor force participation is projected to continue to rise over the projection period but at a slower pace than during the last 10 years. Consequently, purchased restaurant meals are projected to grow only at a rate of 1.1 percent per year in the 1982-95 period, compared with 2.8 percent between 1973 and 1979. Average growth of 2.3 percent annually is projected for purchases of clothing and shoes between 1982 and 1995, compared with rates of 3.9 percent per year in the 1968— Like the case for motor vehicles, the projected surge in purchases of furniture and household appliances is attrib utable to recovery. With the expected upturn in construction of new homes, demand for housing-linked items is expected to increase rapidly, at a rate of 4.6 percent per year, between 1982 and 1990. In addition to the housing-related demand growth, a new boom in household appliances and furnishings, largely par alleling the 1950’s television experience, will feature con sumer electronics and a new wave of replacement demand. Purchases of home computers and supplemental equipment, such as printers and software, have exploded in the U.S. marketplace; demand for such popular new products is fore seen to grow strongly in the next decade. Other new elec tronic products, such as compact audiodiscs, video cassette recorders, and sophisticated electronic telephone systems, Table 2. Selected m acroeconom ic variables, 1963, 1973, 1977, 1982 and projected to 1990 and 1995 1 990 Item 197 7 1973 1968 1 99 5 1932 High M oderate Low High M o d erate Low GNP deflator (1972 = 100) ....................... 82.5 105.7 140.0 206.9 341.1 315.9 303.5 483.7 372.1 341.8 Private nonfarm productivity....................... Unemployment rate..................................... 86.6 3.6 95.2 4.9 100.1 7.1 100.0 9.7 116.1 5.4 114.6 6.3 114.0 6.5 125.3 5.2 122.7 6.0 120.9 6.8 Total employment (in millions) .................. Government............................................ Private ................................................... Farm ................................................... Manufacturing..................................... Service-producing .............................. Other ................................................... 83,549 14,092 69,457 3,662 20,065 37,363 8,367 91,735 15,506 76,229 6,220 20,438 43,567 9,004 97,539 16,783 80,756 2,950 20,017 48,796 8,993 105,555 17,471 88,084 2,815 19,223 56,721 9,325 121,869 17,891 106,978 2,672 22,635 67,828 10,843 120,830 17,658 103,172 2,652 22,236 67,533 10,751 119,735 17,993 101,742 2,630 21,686 66,559 10,867 132,843 18,482 114,361 2,595 24,132 75,596 12,038 130,260 18,203 112,057 2,550 23,491 74,157 11,859 128,250 18,532 109,718 2,500 22,963 72,673 11,582 Average annual rate of change (in percent) High 1 9 6 8 -7 3 1 9 7 3 -7 7 M o d erate 1 9 7 7 -8 2 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 Low 1 9 8 2 -9 5 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 GNP deflator (1972 = 100) ....................... 5.1 7.3 8.1 6.5 7.2 5.4 3.3 4.6 4.9 3.4 Private nonfarm productivity....................... 1.9 1.3 0.0 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 Total employment....................................... Government............................................ Private ................................................... Farm ................................................... Manufacturing..................................... Service-producing .............................. Other ................................................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 -2 .5 0.4 3.1 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.2 -2 .2 -0 .5 2.9 1.6 0.8 1.8 -0 .9 -0 .8 3.1 0.7 1.8 0.3 2.1 -0 .6 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.7 0.7 1.9 -0 .6 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.1 2.0 -0 .7 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 0.6 1.7 -0 .8 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.3 1.6 -0 .7 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.4 1.8 -0 .8 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.6 1.5 -1 .0 1.2 1.8 1.3 S ource : - 0.0 Historical and projected employment data and projected price deflator, Bureau of Labor Statistics; historical price deflator, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 15 T able 3. Personal consum ption expenditures by m ajor categories, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995 [Billions of 1972 dollars] 1 990 Category Total .............................................. 1968 $634.4 1973 $768.5 197 7 1 99 5 198 2 High Moderate Low High Moderate Low $864.3 $970.2 $1,296.0 $1,240.2 $1,196.8 $1,491.4 $1,412.4 $1,349.1 107.0 52.5 41.5 35.0 236.0 90.3 48.3 37.5 32.7 208.8 80.7 43.8 34.6 31.0 190.1 118.1 64.6 51.2 43.5 277.4 98.2 57.4 45.1 39.7 240.4 87.1 55.1 43.8 37.8 223.8 Motor vehicles and parts ............................ Household appliances ................................ Household furnishings................................ Other durable goods ................................... Total durables ................................ 40.3 14.2 20.5 13.4 88.3 56.5 21.2 25.1 18.5 121.3 63.5 26.3 26.6 21.5 138.0 57.4 33.0 26.7 22.7 139.8 Food and beverages ................................... Clothing and shoes..................................... Gasoline and oil ......................................... Fuel oil and coal......................................... Other nondurable goods.............................. Total nondurables............................ 142.4 49.0 19.9 5.3 53.9 270.5 153.6 59.3 26.2 5.4 63.5 308.0 170.6 67.5 27.7 4.4 63.2 333.4 184.0 84.4 25.6 3.5 66.6 364.2 216.6 106.9 29.7 3.7 90.3 447.2 213.2 103.9 28.8 3.7 86.6 436.2 207.1 100.8 27.9 3.6 84.3 423.7 228.7 117.0 30.5 4.4 100.6 481.2 223.8 113.7 28.9 4.4 97.2 468.0 208.9 105.3 26.8 4.1 93.3 438.4 Housing services ....................................... Household electricity.................................. Household natural g a s ................................ Other household operations ....................... Transportation services .............................. Other services ............................................ Total services................................... 93.5 9.6 5.9 23.4 23.4 119.7 275.6 118.2 13.0 6.4 28.0 28.5 145.1 339.2 141.3 16.0 6.5 32.6 32.7 163.9 393.0 171.3 18.3 6.6 38.6 31.7 199.6 466.2 215.2 25.5 5.3 55.0 45.0 266.7 612.7 212.7 24.6 5.1 52.9 42.4 257.5 595.2 209.8 24.1 5.0 51.4 41.0 251.8 583.1 249.3 30.0 5.2 68.9 55.1 324.3 732.8 247.7 28.4 4.7 64.0 50.1 309.1 704.0 245.1 27.2 4.5 61.3 47.9 300.9 686.9 Total .............................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Motor vehicles and parts ............................ Household appliances ................................ Household furnishings................................ Other durable goods ................................... Total durables ................................ 6.4 2.2 3.2 2.1 13.9 7.4 2.8 3.3 2.4 15.8 7.3 3.0 3.1 2.5 16.0 5.9 3.4 2.8 2.3 14.4 8.3 4.1 3.2 2.7 18.2 7.3 3.9 3.0 2.6 16.8 6.7 3.7 2.9 2.6 15.9 7.9 4.3 3.4 2.9 18.6 7.0 4.1 3.2 2.8 17.0 6.5 4.1 3.2 2.8 16.6 Food and beverages ................................... Clothing and shoes..................................... Gasoline and o i l .......................................... Fuel oil and coal.......................................... Other nondurable goods.............................. Total nondurables............................ 22.4 7.7 3.1 0.8 8.5 42.6 20.0 7.7 3.4 0.7 8.3 40.1 19.7 7.8 3.2 0.5 7.3 38.6 19.0 8.7 2.6 0.4 6.9 37.5 16.7 8.2 2.3 0.3 7.0 34.5 17.2 8.4 2.3 0.3 7.0 35.2 17.3 8.4 2.3 0.3 7.0 35.4 15.3 7.8 2.0 0.3 6.7 32.3 15.8 8.1 2.0 0.3 6.9 33.1 15.5 7.8 2.0 0.3 6.9 32.5 Housing services ....................................... Household electricity................................... Household natural g a s ................................ Other household operations ....................... Transportation services .............................. Other services ............................................ Total services................................... 14.7 1.5 0.9 3.7 3.7 18.9 43.4 15.4 1.7 0.8 3.6 3.7 18.9 44.1 16.3 1.9 0.8 3.8 3.8 19.0 45.5 17.7 1.9 0.7 4.0 3.3 20.6 48.0 16.6 2.0 0.4 4.2 3.5 20.6 47.3 17.2 2.0 0.4 4.3 3.4 20.8 48.0 17.5 2.0 0.4 4.3 3.4 21.0 48.7 16.7 2.0 0.3 4.6 3.7 21.7 49.1 17.5 2.0 0.3 4.5 3.5 21.9 49.8 18.2 2.0 0.3 4.5 3.6 22.3 50.9 Percent distribution Average annual rate of change (in percent) High 1 968 73 1973- 77 M oderate Low 19 7 7 - 82 198290 199095 198290 199095 198295 198290 199095 Total .............................................. 3.9 3.0 2.3 3.7 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 Motor vehicles and parts ............................ Household appliances ................................ Household furnishings................................ Other durable goods .................................. Total durables ................................ 7.0 8.4 4.1 6.7 6.6 3.0 5.5 1.5 3.8 3.3 -2 .0 4.6 0.1 1.1 0.3 8.1 6.0 5.6 5.6 6.8 2.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 3.3 5.8 4.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 1.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 2.9 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.6 3.3 4.0 3.9 1.5 4.7 4.8 4.0 3.3 Food and beverages ................................... Clothing and shoes..................................... Gasoline and oil .......................................... Fuel oil and coal......................................... Other nondurable goods.............................. Total nondurables............................ 1.5 3.9 5.7 0.4 3.3 2.6 2.7 3.3 1.4 -5 .0 -0.1 2.0 1.5 4.6 -1 .5 -4 .5 1.1 1.8 2.1 3.0 1.9 0.6 3.9 2.6 1.1 1.8 0.5 3.5 2.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 1.5 0.6 3.3 2.3 1.0 1.8 0.1 3.5 2.3 1.4 1.5 2.3 0.9 1.7 2.9 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.1 0.2 3.0 1.9 0.2 0.9 -0 .8 2.6 2.0 0.7 Housing services ....................................... Household electricity.................................. Household natural g a s ................................ Other household operations ....................... Transportation services .............................. Other services ............................................ Total services................................... 4.8 6.3 1.6 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.3 0.4 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.8 3.9 2.8 0.1 3.5 -0 .6 4.0 3.5 2.9 4.2 -2 .7 4.5 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.3 -0 .4 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.7 3.7 -3.1 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 -1 .6 3.9 3.4 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.4 -2 .5 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.6 3.5 -3 .4 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.2 2.5 -2 1 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.3 S ource : Historical data are from table 2.5 of the National Income and Product Accounts Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 16 trast, demand for natural gas has continued to decrease. This shift reflects diminished natural gas supplies and price hikes that have caused electricity to become the principal alternative energy source. During the past 2 years, retail natural gas prices rose by 40 percent (in nominal terms) in some parts of the Nation, and industry experts predict a sharp rise of 16 percent for the 1984 winter heating season. These trends of increased availability of electricity and de creased use of natural gas are expected to continue through 1995. Demand for electricity will grow 3.4 percent per year in the 1982-95 period, while demand for natural gas will fall at a rate of - 2 .5 percent. Purchases of telephone and telegraph services by con sumers are expected to grow substantially over the projec tion span. This reflects the increased use of modern communication systems, such as call-waiting and call-for warding services, long-distance calling and related telecom munication systems, and the computerized telephone. In addition, cable television services have been expanding rap idly during recent years; spending on cable television ser vices in 1982 was more than triple that in 1977. This trend is expected to continue in the next decade. Also contributing to increasing relative expenditures for communications ser vices is the divestiture proceeding currently underway for the major supplier of these services. Communications ser vices are projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 percent between 1982 and 1995. The large increases projected in medical care services are affected by continued growth in the percentage of the pop ulation over age 65, who need more health care than the general population, and by the increasing availability of new, sophisticated, and expensive medical treatment equip ment. In addition, demand for medical services seems to be relatively immune to the effects of price increases. Medical spending is projected to grow to 8.3 percent of p c e in 1995, compared to 7.0 percent in 1977. 73 period and 4.0 percent in the 1973-82 span. This rep resents real spending of $438 per person for clothing and shoes in 1995, compared with $280 in 1973 and $363 in 1982. The baby boom of the fifties powered much of the demand for clothing purchases of the sixties and seventies. The baby bust of the sixties will mean, for the nineties, a smaller proportion of the population in the 16- to 44-yearold group, accounting for 43 percent in 1995 versus 46 percent in 1982; individuals in this age group are major purchasers of clothing and shoes. Due to continuing conservation, the downsizing of cars, and expected increases in relative energy prices, energy consumption stays at low levels through 1995. In 1982, the average miles-per-gallon for new domestic cars was 26.7, while by 1995, this figure is expected to jump to 41.7. Thus, only slight growth of 0.9 percent per year is projected for gasoline and oil purchases in the 1982-95 period. Since the energy crisis of the 1970’s, consumption of fuel oil and coal for household heating and cooling has dropped sub stantially in response to relative price increases. Although the downward trend is expected to reverse in 1984, con sumption will probably not return to its previous levels, at least not in the projection period. Average annual growth of 1.7 percent is projected for fuel oil and coal during the 1982-95 period. Drugs and medical sundries is the only category of non durables expected to show rapid growth during the projec tion period. Because of continued demand growth and the introduction of new kinds of products, a strong increase of 6.0 percent per year is projected between 1977 and 1995. Consumer purchases of services have been becoming a more important budget item historically, and this trend is expected to continue to 1995. The growth of services pur chases is broadly based; with the exception of natural gas purchases, ail categories of services are expected to increase by at least 2.9 percent per year between 1982 and 1995 Consumer expenditures for housing, which include rent paid by tenants and an imputed rental value of owner-oc cupied housing, have been an increasing share of total p c e over time, rising from 14.7 percent in 1968 to 16.3 percent in 1977, and to 17.7 percent in 1982. By 1995, housing expenditures are expected to exceed food expenditures and become the largest consumption category. The increase in housing demand is in response to changes in household formation rates— a trend toward single-person households, and a decrease in family size from 3.0 persons in 1973 to 2.6 in 1982, and to 2.4 in 1995. Stable growth of 2.9 percent per year in housing expenditures is projected for the 1982— 95 period. Since the early 1970’s, demand for electric power has increased, consistently outpacing growth in g n p . In con Investment. Gross investment is expected to continue to exhibit its traditional volatility during the projection period. Accounting for 17.3 percent of g n p in 1973, gross private domestic investment ( g p d i ) accounted for only 13.1 percent by 1982, primarily because of the disastrous effects of high inflation and the recessions of the 1970’s and early 1980’s on housing construction. By 1990, investment accounts for 16.0 percent of g n p , reflecting growing expenditures for equipment and the projected housing recovery. The share declines slightly to 15.6 percent of g n p by 1995 as housing construction hits a plateau. Equipment purchases are expected to grow at a 3.5-per cent rate between 1982 and 1995, well above the 2.4-percent rate of the 1973-82 period. Although still well below the 17 tween 1982 and 1990, accelerating to 5.2 percent each year, 1990-95. By end-use categories, the expected growth is broadly based, as depicted in table 4. Merchandise exports are expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.3 percent over the projection period, led by con sumer goods with average growth of 6.9 percent. In dollar values, capital goods are expected to show the largest in creases— $24.2 billion, or nearly one-third of the total in crease. Growth in exports of consumer goods and capital goods reflects the expectation that U.S. trade will move toward developing countries in the long run because those countries tend to require goods with higher technological inputs, such as electronic computers and parts, aircraft and parts, telephonic and other electrical apparatus, and medic inal and pharmaceutical preparations. By 1995, computers are expected to be the leading export industry, reaching 5.3 percent of total exports with a growth rate of 8.4 percent per year from 1977 to 1995. Exports of telephone and tel egraph apparatus show the highest annual rate of increase— 10.9 percent— over the 1977-95 period. The category of food, feeds, and beverages will continue to account for a sizable share of U.S. exports in coming years, but it will grow at a slower rate. The following table highlights those industries with the best expected export performance: rate of growth of producers’ durable equipment ( p d e ) pur chases during the 1960’s, this has important implications for productivity. In terms of industries, computers and peripheral equip ment are projected to rise from 8 percent of producers’ durable equipment expenditures in 1977 to 20 percent in 1995. Despite the rapid growth by the computer industry during the 1970’s, more is still expected, brought on by advances in microchip technology. These developments should continue to bring down the price of computers, mak ing them available to even the smallest businesses. Large computers with speeds many times faster than the fastest now available will find expanded uses, and will also be purchased by large companies to replace existing equip ment. Investment spending on motor vehicles and aircraft is projected to grow less rapidly than total outlays for pro ducer’s durables as companies do little more than replace equipment that wears out. Moderate growth in the agricul tural sector translates into moderate investment in farm ma chinery. D evelopm ents such as laser system s, data communications, and electronic mail will result in rapid growth in investment in radio and telephone equipment. The nonresidential construction market suffered its set back in the mid-1970’s and has, to some extent, already anticipated the recovery foreseen for the residential market. Growth in nonresidential construction is expected to average 2.1 percent each year between 1982 and 1995. Growth of expenditures for industrial structures is expected to exceed 5.0 percent annually over the entire period, more than off setting the very slow growth expected for commercial office buildings. Computers .......................................... Food and feed grains ....................... A ircraft.......................................................... Electronic components ................................ Motor vehicles .................................. The five fastest growing export industries, 1977-95: Housing. The residential construction market is projected to recover strongly from its depressed condition of the last several years. Private housing starts are expected to rise from the 1982 level of 1.06 million units to a peak of 2.16 million in 1988. Thereafter, growth moderates and housing starts stabilize at about 1.9 million units annually to 1995. Hardest hit during the last several years have been single family housing starts. In 1982 and 1983, government sub sidy programs encouraged multifamily construction projects and, as a result, multifamily starts constituted almost 37 percent of total starts in 1982. Projected stronger growth in the single-family construction area means that one-unit houses will account for 66.5 percent of starts, with multifamily units dropping to 33.8 percent, by 1988. By 1995, single family starts are 65.8 percent of total starts. Mobile homes are projected to grow at a rate of 5.9 percent annually, 1982-90, and at a 2.5-percent rate between 1990 and 1995. 5.3 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 Annual percent growth rate Telephone and telegraph apparatus. Communications .............................. Floor covering mills .................................... Furniture and fixtures .................................. Computers ..................................................... 10.9 10.3 8.9 8.5 8.4 Imports are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.0 percent annually between 1982 and 1995. Merchandise im ports will exhibit more rapid growth of 3.8 percent. Over the 1980-82 period, petroleum imports dropped by $1.8 billion, or 14 percent, as a result of both the U.S. recession and continuing efforts to conserve energy. Increasing im ports of petroleum during the projection period result from falling domestic production and some increase in demand. Domestic oil production is expected to continue to decline somewhat, dropping from 9.9 million barrels per day in 1982, and stabilizing at 9.5 million by 1990. In real terms, the barrel price of oil is assumed to reach $52 by 1995, a price rise which is accounted for by general inflationary expectations. Thus, overall demand for petroleum tends to increase without the price constraints evident during the Exports and imports. The assumption that our major trading partners will recover strongly from the current worldwide recession underlies the strong growth projected for U.S. exports of goods and services— 4.1 percent annually be Percent o f total exports The five largest export industries, 1995: 18 TabS© 4. Foreign trade by end-use categories, 1068,1973,1977,1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995 [Billions of 1972 dollars] <0 1968 1973 1977 1982 Net exports ....................................................... Net merchandise ............................................ Net services ................................................... $ 1.9 -1 .9 3.8 $15.5 1.5 14.0 $ 22.0 $ 28.9 1.7 27.2 $ 34.1 Total exports ..................................................... Merchandise ................................................... Foods, feeds, and beverages....................... Industrial supplies and materials ................ Capital goods, excluding autos..................... Automobiles................................................ Consumer goods......................................... Other goods ................................................ Services......................................................... 61.2 39.0 5.5 12.3 13.3 4.1 2.7 97.3 61.2 9.7 17.1 21.3 6.4 4.4 2.3 36.1 112.9 Total imports ..................................................... Merchandise .................................................. Foods, feeds, and beverages....................... Industrial supplies, excluding petroleum . . . . Petroleum and petroleum products.............. Capital goods, excluding autos.................... Automobiles and parts ................................ Consumer goods......................................... Other goods................................................ Services......................................................... 59.3 40.9 6.5 14.0 2.8 3.9 5.4 90.9 67.1 6.9 17.8 9.0 9.0 1.4 18.5 81.8 59.7 7.4 16.5 6.6 7.2 8.9 11.4 1.7 22.1 Total exports ..................................................... Merchandise ................................................... Foods, feeds, and beverages....................... Industrial supplies and materials ................ Capital goods, excluding autos..................... Automobiles................................................ Consumer goods......................................... Other goods................................................ Services.......................................................... 100.0 63.7 9.0 20.1 21.7 6.7 4.4 1.6 36.4 100.0 62.9 10.0 17.6 21.9 6.6 4.5 2.4 37.1 100.0 Total imports ..................................................... Merchandise ................................................... Foods, feeds, and beverages....................... Industrial supplies, excluding petroleum . . . . Petroleum and petroleum products.............. Capital goods, excluding autos..................... Automobiles and p a rts ................................ Consumer goods.......................................... Other goods................................................. Services.......................................................... 100.0 69.0 11.0 23.6 4.7 6.6 9.1 11.5 2.4 31.2 100.0 73.0 9.0 20.2 8.1 100.0 73.8 7.6 19.6 1.0 22.3 6.8 0.9 21.1 68.0 10.5 16.8 24.1 7.9 6.1 2.6 44.9 10.6 12.5 1.5 23.8 1995 1990 Category High Moderate Low High Moderate Low -8.2 $ 83.0 35.8 47.2 $ 22.8 42.3 $ 48.8 7.7 41.1 -21.5 44.3 $ 85.9 28.9 57.0 $148.4 72.9 75.6 147.3 81.4 14.5 21.7 28.4 5.4 7.4 4.0 65.9 206.7 118.7 202.3 119.8 206.5 125.7 33.8 39.6 1.3 12.9 4.0 34.6 40.9 7.9 12.5 3.9 82.5 35.3 43.6 9.7 13.1 3.9 80.9 261.7 146.5 30.1 41.3 45.4 7.2 17.5 4.9 115.2 260.0 158.7 28.3 45.1 52.6 10.5 17.6 4.6 101.3 267.9 171.9 28.4 45.9 59.5 13.9 19.6 4.6 96.0 118.4 79.7 7.2 16.3 5.1 18.9 11.5 17.9 2.9 38.7 172.6 126.9 12.5 25.8 9.5 28.3 17.0 30.1 3.7 45.7 153.5 123.5 89.9 10.3 20.4 8.4 16.9 12.5 17.8 3.7 33.6 238.9 168.0 14.7 29.0 13.3 44.1 174.1 129.8 13.2 23.3 12.7 29.6 17.1 29.7 4.2 44.3 119.4 99.0 10.7 20.7 12.5 19.2 16.1 15.6 4.2 20.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 61.0 10.9 17.3 100.0 21.1 88.0 20.1 112.1 11.5 22.8 8.9 24.9 14.9 25.4 3.7 41.4 20.1 20.1 42.6 4.2 70.9 Percent distribution S ource : 60.2 9.3 14.9 21.3 7.0 5.4 2.3 39.8 8.8 9.9 9.9 10.9 13.9 2.1 27.0 11.7 13.8 1.7 26.2 100.0 55.3 9.8 14.7 19.3 3.7 5.0 2.7 44.7 100.0 100.0 67.3 6.1 13.8 4.3 16.0 9.7 15.1 2.4 32.7 100.0 73.5 7.2 14.9 57.4 10.2 16.4 19.2 3.5 6.2 1.9 42.6 5.5 16.4 9.8 17.4 2.1 26.5 100.0 59.2 9.9 17.1 20.2 3.9 6.2 1.9 40.8 100.0 73.0 7.5 14.9 5.8 16.2 9.7 16.5 2.4 27.0 60.9 9.7 17.1 21.1 4.7 6.3 1.9 39.2 100.0 72.8 8.3 16.5 6.8 13.7 10.1 14.4 3.0 27.2 56.0 11.5 15.8 17.3 2.8 6.7 1.9 44.0 100.0 70.3 6.2 12.1 5.6 18.4 8.4 17.8 1.8 29.7 64.2 10.6 17.1 22.2 5.2 7.3 1.7 35.8 20.2 4.0 6.8 1.8 39.0 100.0 74.6 7.6 13.4 7.3 17.0 9.8 17.1 2.4 25.4 100.0 82.9 9.0 17.3 10.5 16.1 13.5 13.1 3.5 17.1 Historical data are from tables 4.2 and 4.4 of the National Income and Product Accounts Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1970’s. Petroleum imports are projected to grow at a rate of 7.3 percent per year between 1982 and 1995. Imported cars held their own during the 1981-82 reces sion. Sales of imports were at 2.3 million units in 1982, accounting for 28 percent of all new-car sales. By 1995, annual automobile imports are projected to reach 3.6 million units, or 30 percent of all domestic sales. Average growth of 3.1 percent per year is expected over the 1982-95 period. Two other categories of imports— capital goods, except autos, and consumer goods— are expected to grow at rates of 3.5 percent and 4.0 percent respectively from 1982 to 1995. In capital goods, electronic equipment and compo nents and business equipment will contribute most of the increase; in consumer goods, nondurable goods imports such as apparel will strengthen total growth. Imported apparel is expected to reach 22 percent of total output (domestic output plus imports) in 1995 versus 11 percent in 1977. Industrial supplies, however, are expected to grow more slowly, achieving a yearly rate of 2.8 percent in the 1982-95 period. The net result of these projections is a steady increase in real net exports over the period, from $29 billion in 1982 to $86 billion in 1995, boosting the gnp share of net exports from 1.9 percent to 4.0 percent between those years. Government. More than half of government purchases are from the service industries, as indicated in the following distribution of 1977 government purchases less sales, by industry: Source industry Total ................... Agriculture, mining, and maintenance construction....... M anufacturing........ Transportation, communications, and public utilities ............... Trade ....................... Other services ........ 19 Federal government Defense Nondefense State and local government Education Other 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5 34.1 - 1 .7 27.2 4.2 11.2 5.2 13.5 4.0 0.9 59.5 3.6 2.3 68.6 3.5 - 2 .7 83.7 5.6 2.3 73.4 100.0 rate of 7.8 percent each year between 1982 and 1995 as compared to the moderate-growth expenditures increase of 6.7 percent. Real g n p grows at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent during 1982-85, a 0.6-percent higher rate than in the mod erate version. Between 1990 and 1995, g n p rises at the same rate in both the moderate- and high-growth alterna tives— 2.5 percent annually. This is due primarily to the much higher rate of import growth in the high-trend version which tends to mask greater increases in the other categories of g n p . The g n p in 1995 is about $98 billion higher than in the moderate-growth case. Major demand differences are in purchases of consumer durables ($37 billion higher), producers’ durable equipment ($25 billion higher), and in residential investment ($35 bil lion higher). As noted above, greater income growth in this version leads to higher levels of imports, while exports are virtually unchanged. Net exports are therefore lower by $63 billion than in the moderate-growth projection. Finally, higher rates of income growth mean greater government revenues, which lead to a balanced Federal budget in 1990. In the high-trend alternative, the distribution of demand as compared to the moderate version shows no change in the share going to government. Personal consumption ex penditures at the total level show little difference, masking the fact that durables increase at the expense of nondurables and services. This follows from the assumption of easier money and lower interest rates, which are major induce ments to purchase durables. Lower interest rates also lead to a larger share of g n p going to equipment investment and construction. Increased purchases from manufacturing as a result of higher government, durable goods, equipment, and construction purchases are more than cancelled by the large increase assumed for imports. The drop in the export share of g n p is partially reflected in a slight decline in the agri cultural industries share. Federal employment in both the defense and nondefense areas is assumed to show little growth through 1995. With a steady level of armed forces, compensation falls from one half of defense purchases in 1977 to little more than onethird in 1995. The remainder of defense purchases are mainly from manufacturing industries, and it is in this area that healthy growth is expected. Computers and peripheral equipment purchases will more than triple, while those for radio and communications equipment (which includes las ers) are projected to more than double. Other defense-related industries such as ordnance, missiles, aircraft, ships, and electronic components will account for much of the rest of the purchases. Only moderate growth is expected in State and local gov ernment purchases between 1977 and 1995 as a result of the completion of the highway construction program; the slowdown in Federal grants-in-aid, outside of health; slower growth in the school-age population compared to the in crease through the early 1970’s; and diminished citizen ex pectations from government. Because most State and local purchases are for compensation, the expected moderate growth has only minor impacts on other industries. In general, State and local government purchases are expected to mirror the rest of the economy in the industries affected. Alternatives to moderate growth The high-growth and low-growth versions of the projec tions vary the assumptions regarding fiscal and monetary policy. By 1995, real g n p ranges between a low of $2,127 billion and a high of $2,265 billion, accompanied by un employment rates of 6.8 percent and 5.2 percent for the low and high, respectively. Each of the alternatives is summa rized below and estimates from these scenarios are presented with the moderate-growth projections in tables 1 and 2. High growth. The major assumption in the high scenario is that the Federal Reserve Board pursues a less restrictive monetary policy than in the moderate growth projections. The assumption is that the Board of Governors allows more rapid monetary growth in order to bolster recovery from the 1981-82 recession and to sustain a higher trend growth over the long run. This less-restrictive monetary policy, coupled with stronger demand growth, leads to somewhat different inflation ex pectations. The implicit g n p deflator increases at an annual rate of 6.5 percent between 1982 and 1990, 1.1 percent faster than in the moderate-growth version. However, in stead of decelerating after 1990, implicit deflator growth begins to pick up, running at 7.2 percent annually to 1995. This is comparable with the rate of inflation during the 1973-77 period. No real differences were assumed for fiscal policy in the high-growth projection. The higher inflation rates do, how ever, result in government expenditures growing more rap idly throughout the period. Federal expenditures rise at a Low growth. This alternative simulation assumes higher levels of government spending, especially in defense, but also in transfers and grants. Federal expenditures grow at a rate of 9.4 percent each year between 1982 and 1990 and at. 7 percent during the 1990-95 period. This compares to 7.5-percent and 6.1-percent growth over the same periods in the moderate-growth scenario. Defense growth is about 1.5 percent higher each year between 1982 and 1988, re flecting somewhat higher staff levels and greater expendi tures on goods. Transfer payments are higher in every category, with the major increase in social security and medicare. As a result of the more aggressive (or less con trolled) fiscal policy, the Federal Government runs deficits of about $200 billion for the remainder of the decade, with only modest tapering after 1990 to about $160 billion by 1995. In addition, the monetary authorities are assumed to be generally more restrictive in order to hold down inflation. 20 Both Ml and M2 grow at about 0.6-percent-lower rates than in the moderate-growth projections. As a result, both short and long-term interest rates are pushed higher, remaining in the double-digit range over the entire forecast period. The high interest rates and severe competition for funds in the credit markets limits the growth of demand, especially for durable items. Real g n p is $40 billion lower in 1995 than in the moderate-growth case. Personal consumption expenditures are lower by $63 billion and gross private investment is off by $52 billion from the 1995 moderategrowth levels. In a situation analogous to that in the highgrowth case, the slower growth in income lowers imports by $55 billion, thus masking, to some extent, the full impact on the domestic economy. Reduced income growth only exacerbates the Federal deficit situation, despite assumed personal tax hikes during the mid- and late-1980’s. Damp ened capital goods spending leads to lower productivity and job growth over the entire period. Different assumptions in the low-growth case cause minor variations in the level of g n p , but large internal shifts, as compared to the base case. Tight monetary policy leads to higher interest rates with the expected retarding effect on consumers’ and producers’ durable goods and on construc tion— sectors that purchase heavily from manufacturing. However, because imports are assumed to grow at a much slower rate, and defense spending at a faster rate, than g n p , the adverse impact of low demand on manufacturing is alleviated. And lower consumer expenditures and invest ment do cause trade to represent a larger share of g n p . [ j 1 As part of a continuing program to assess the validity o f bls projections, a future article will evaluate the projections of the U.S. economy for 1980. For previous articles see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ The 1995 labor force: a first look,” M o n th ly L a b o r Review , December 1980, pp. 11-21; Norman C. Saunders, “ The U.S. economy through 1990— an update,” M o n th ly L a b o r Review , August 1981, pp. 18-27; Valerie A. Personick, “ The out look for industry output and employment through 1990,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , August 1981, pp. 28-41; Max L. Carey, “ Occupational em ployment growth through 1990,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , August 1981, pp. 4 2 -55; and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ How accurate were the 1980 labor force projections?,” 21 M o n th ly L a b o r R eview . July 1982, pp. 15-21. 2P r o je c tio n s o f the P o p u la tio n o f the U n ite d States: 1982 to 2050. C u rre n t P o p u la tio n Reports, Series P-25, No. 922 (U.S. Bureau o f the Census, 1982). 3 Tables detailing the major assumptions underlying the aggregate pro jections will be included with reprints of this article. 4 Trade-weighted average value of the dollar major U.S. trading partners. vis-a-vis the currencies of The job outlook through 1995: industry output and employment projections Recovery is expected in construction and durable goods, but services will continue to lead job growth; several heavy industries will not reach past peaks because changing markets and technologies will dampen expansion V a l e r ie A. P e r s o n ic k duction in these sectors, but productivity improvements and technological change will limit job expansion. Despite manufacturing’s gains, most new job growth is projected to take place in service-producing industries, as it has in the past. Service-producing industries— broadly defined as transportation, communications, public utilities, trade, finance, insurance, real estate, other services, and government— are projected to account for almost 75 percent of all new jobs between 1982 and 1995. Within the service-producing sector, the miscellaneous or other service component is projected to continue to grow the fastest. Industries such as medical care, business ser vices, professional services, hotels, personal services, and nonprofit organizations are projected to account for more than 1 of 3 new jobs over the projection span, compared with 1 of 6 for manufacturing industries. In addition, the miscellaneous service sector is expected to have smoother job growth than manufacturing. Because miscellaneous ser vice industries were less impacted by the cyclical downturn, they will not be as dramatically affected by the anticipated economic upswing, leading to smoother employment growth. These findings are from the Bureau’s most recent eco nomic and employment projections for the years through 1995. This study of industry output and employment is one in a series of four; the others describe projections of the labor force, gross national product and the distribution of final demand, and employment by occupation.1 The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest projections of industry output and employment indicate that contrary to several popular reports the decade of the 1990’s will not see the demise of America’s smokestack industries. A sizable por tion of the recent factory job loss can be attributed to the 1980-82 recessionary period, and as the economy recovers, heavy manufacturing industries should increase employ ment. Job gains in manufacturing will account for almost 1 of 6 new jobs between 1982 and 1995. (See table 1.) Manufacturing, which represented 25 percent of all jobs in 1959 but less than 19 percent in 1982, is projected to main tain this steady share throughout the 1982-95 period. (See table 2.) Because manufacturing job gains primarily reflect a re bound from the low recession levels, much of the growth occurs in the early part of the projection span. About 3 million jobs are projected to be added to factory employment by 1990, but only about 1.3 million between 1990 and 1995. Furthermore, despite the recovery, employment in several key manufacturing industries (for example, autos and steel), is not expected to reach previous peaks, at least not by 1995. A turnaround in demand is projected to boost pro- Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections. Karen J. Horowitz, an economist in the same Office, contributed the section on technology and changing demand. 22 Tafole 1. Projected job growth, 1982-95 [ In t h o u s a n d s ] Because of the unlimited range of actual outcomes in the future, three alternative projections to 1995 were prepared with an eye to suggesting a range of possibilities. These three scenarios, characterized as low growth, moderate growth, and high growth, assume various patterns of eco nomic change. Because they are based on a few specific assumptions about macroeconomic variables, they do not represent the actual bounds to output and employment in 1995. Rather, they show what might happen under alter native responses of the economy to changes in fiscal and monetary policies.2 Unless otherwise noted, this article discusses the mod erate growth projection. This case is marked by a period of recovery from the 1982 recession, followed by stable eco nomic growth through the mid-1990’s. The civilian un employment rate, which was 9.7 percent in 1982, is projected to fall to 6.3 percent by 1990, and then dip slightly to 6.0 percent by 1995. Total employment is expected to rise from 102.3 million in 1982 to 127.6 million by 1995, a gain of more than 25 million new jobs. Growth is projected to be faster in the earlier years, as industries rebound from the recent economic downturn. Employment, which expanded by 3.6 percent a year between 1975 and 1979, showed very few gains during the business slump of 1980 or the brief recovery period thereafter. The more severe recession of 1981-82 brought an additional 1.3-percent decline in total jobs. Employment is projected to rebound, averaging growth of 1.8 percent a year from 1982 to 1990, then slow to 1.5 percent annually through 1995. The slowdown in employment reflects not only the di minishing of the initial surge caused by recovery but, even more significantly, a continuing slowdown in the rate of growth of the labor force.3 Following the rapid expansion of the 1970’s, labor force growth has begun to taper as the last members of the baby-boom generation reach working age. The slowdown is projected to continue through the 1980’s and 1990’s, as the decrease in births between 1960 and 1975 will cause an absolute decline in the number of potential new workers ages 16 to 24. The labor force, which grew 2.3 percent a year between 1970 and 1982, is projected to grow 1.6 percent a year to 1990, and 1.0 percent a year thereafter. Workn’eek. Somewhat offsetting the effects of slower labor force growth on job creation is the projection of the work week. Average weekly hours are projected to continue their long-term downward trend. In the short run, average weekly hours, especially in manufacturing, are used to respond to the pressures of the business cycle. At the beginning of an economic downturn, employers cut back on overtime hours before laying off workers, and as the economy improves, overtime hours are added and the workweek extended before new employees are hired. This recovery will be no excep 23 Industry 1982-95 New Percent jobs of total Total new jo b s................... 25,248 1982-90 New Percent jobs of total 1990-95 New Percent jobs of total 100.0 16,000 100.0 9,248 100.0 6,548 -265 122 2,434 4,257 3,170 1,087 25.9 -1 .0 .5 9.6 16.9 12.6 4.3 4,350 -163 39 1,472 3,002 2,224 778 27.2 -1 .0 .2 9.2 18.8 13.9 4.9 2,198 -102 83 962 1,255 946 309 23.8 -1.1 .9 10.4 13.6 10.2 3.3 Service-producing: 18,700 Transportation, public utilities 1,094 Trade ................ 6,009 Finance, insurance, and real estate. . . . 1,786 Services........... 8,673 Private households. . . -289 Government. . . . 1,427 74.1 11,650 72.8 7,050 76.2 4.3 23.8 659 3,819 4.1 23.9 435 2,190 4.7 23.7 7.1 34.4 1,214 5,246 7.6 32.8 572 3,427 6.2 37.1 -1.1 5.7 -235 947 -1 .5 5.9 -5 4 480 - .6 5.2 Goods-producing: Farm................... M ining.............. Construction. . . . Manufacturing. . . Durable......... Nondurable. . . tion. The factory workweek is projected to expand from 38.9 hours in 1982 to 39.8 hours by 1984; thereafter, the long-term decline will resume, with manufacturing hours averaging 38.8 by 1995. Hours in nonmanufacturing will drop even more rapidly, reflecting both declines in the full time workweek as well as increases in part-time employ ment. For the private nonfarm economy as a whole, average weeklv hours are projected to fall from 35.1 in 1982 to 33.1 in 1995. Productivity. Output per worker hour, or productivity, is projected to return to rates of growth more characteristic of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. Between 1968 and 1973, output per hour in the private nonfarm sector grew by 2.0 percent a year. Over the same span, employment and real gross national product also enjoyed rapid growth— 2.1 per cent for jobs and 3.5 percent for g n p . This period of ex pansion was followed by years of declining productivity. Between 1973 and 1979, productivity grew by only .9 each year, and between 1979 and 1982 the rate dropped further, to .4 percent. This decline is expected to be reversed, how ever, as new capital investment, strong demand growth, and more efficient utilization of the slowly growing labor force all contribute to a resurgence in productivity. Output per hour is expected to climb to a 1.6-percent annual growth rate during the 1982-90 period, and then grow at a 1.3percent annual pace between 1990 and 1995. For manufacturing alone, productivity gains are projected to be just as dramatic. A 2.2-percent annual rise is projected between 1982 and 1995, compared with 1.5 percent over the 1973-79 period and .7 percent during 1979-82. It should be noted that rising productivity does not nec essarily mean layoffs— as noted, 4.3 million new factory jobs will be added between 1982 and 1995. Productivity advances can be accompanied by employment growth, as the general level of production expands, g n p is projected Table 2. Actual and projected employment by major sectors, 1959-95 E m ploym ent (in thousands) 1 990 Sector 195 9 196 9 1 995 1982 197 9 Low M oderate High Low M o d erate High T o tal.............................................. Farm .......................................... Nonfarm..................................... 67,705 5,491 62,214 82,401 3,495 78,906 102,211 2,861 99,350 102,315 2,815 99,500 116,943 2,630 114,313 118,315 2,652 115,663 119,399 2,672 116,727 125,251 2,500 122,751 127,563 2,550 125,013 130,299 2,595 127,704 Government............................ Federal .............................. State and local .................. Private ................................... Mining................................ Construction....................... Manufacturing..................... Durable ......................... Nondurable..................... Transportation and public utilities............................ Trade ................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate.............................. Services.............................. Private households.............. 8,083 2,233 5,850 54,131 612 3,825 16,985 9,560 7,425 12,195 2,758 9,437 66,711 501 4,386 20,469 12,081 8,388 15,947 2,773 13,174 83,403 704 5,903 21,406 12,989 8,417 15,803 2,739 13,064 83,697 742 5,491 19,234 11,326 7,908 16,830 3,202 13,628 97,483 775 7,020 21,686 13,218 8,468 16,750 2,989 13,761 98,913 781 6,963 22,236 13,550 8,686 17,060 3,096 13,964 99,667 760 7,052 22,635 13,871 8,764 17,180 3,163 14,017 105,571 842 7,798 22,963 14,286 8,696 17,230 2,960 14,270 107,783 864 7,925 23,491 14,496 8,995 17,760 3,139 14,621 109,944 844 8,004 24,132 14,965 9,167 4,304 13,245 4,718 16,704 5,534 22,352 5,543 22,536 6,152 25,885 6,202 26,355 6,287 26,649 6,488 27,764 6,637 28,545 6,746 28,859 2,923 9,663 2,574 3,864 13,747 2,322 5,523 20,258 1,723 5,899 22,617 1,635 7,021 27,501 1,443 7,113 27,863 1,400 6,667 28,225 1,392 7,607 30,814 1,295 7,685 31,290 1,346 7,788 32,203 1,368 Percent distribution 1990 1959 196 9 1 99 5 1982 1979 Low M oderate High Low M od e ra te High Total.............................................. Farm .......................................... Nonfarm..................................... 100.0 8.1 91.9 100.0 4.2 95.8 100.0 2.8 97.2 100.0 2.8 97.2 100.0 2.2 97.8 100.0 2.2 97.8 100.0 2.2 97.8 100.0 2.0 98.0 100.0 2.0 98.0 100.0 2.0 98.0 Government............................ Federal .............................. State and local .................. Private ................................... Mining................................ Construction....................... Manufacturing..................... Durable ......................... Nondurable ..................... Transportation and public utilities............................ Trade ................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate .............................. Services.............................. Private households.............. 11.9 3.3 8.6 80.0 .9 5.6 25.1 14.1 11.0 14.8 3.3 11.5 81.0 .6 5.3 24.8 14.7 10.2 15.6 2.7 12.9 81.6 .7 5.8 20.9 12.7 8.2 15.4 2.7 12.8 81.8 .7 5.4 18.8 11.1 7.7 14.4 2.7 11.7 83.4 .7 6.0 18.5 11.3 7.2 14.2 2.5 11.6 83.6 .7 5.9 18.8 11.5 7.3 14.3 2.6 11.7 83.5 .6 5.9 19.0 11.6 7.3 13.7 2.5 11.2 84.3 .7 6.2 18.3 11.4 6.9 13.5 2.3 11.2 84.5 .7 6.2 18.4 11.4 7.1 13.6 2.4 11.2 84.4 .6 6.1 18.5 11.5 7.0 6.4 19.6 5.7 20.3 5.4 21.9 5.4 22.0 5.3 22.1 5.2 22.3 5.3 22.3 5.2 22.2 5.2 22.4 5.2 22.1 4.3 14.3 3.8 4.7 16.7 2.8 5.4 19.8 1.7 5.8 22.1 1.6 6.0 23.5 1.2 6.0 23.5 1.2 5.6 23.6 1.2 6.1 24.6 1.0 6.0 24.5 1.1 6.0 24.7 1.0 Average annual rate of change 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 5 9 -6 9 1 9 6 9 -7 9 1 9 9 0 -9 5 1 97 9 82 Low M oderate High 1 9 8 2 -9 5 Low M oderate High Low M od e ra te High Total .............................................. Farm .......................................... Nonfarm..................................... 2.0 -4 .4 2.4 2.2 -2 .0 2.3 .0 - .5 .1 1.7 - .8 1.7 1.8 - .7 1.9 1.9 - .6 2.0 1.4 -1 .0 1.4 1.5 - .8 1.6 1.8 - .6 1.8 1.6 - .9 1.6 1.7 - .8 1.8 1.9 - .6 1.9 Government ............................ Federal................................ State and local..................... Private ................................... M ining................................ Construction ....................... Manufacturing ..................... Durable............................ Nondurable ..................... Transportation and public utilities ............................ Trade................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate .............................. Services.............................. Private households.............. 4.2 2.1 4.9 2.1 -2 .0 1.4 1.9 2.4 1.2 2.7 .1 3.4 2.3 3.5 30 .4 .7 .0 - .3 - .4 - .3 .1 1.8 -2 4 -3.5 -4.5 -2.1 .8 2.0 .5 1.9 .6 31 1.5 1.9 .9 .7 1.1 .7 2.1 .7 30 1.8 2.3 1.2 1.0 1.5 .8 2.2 .3 32 2.1 2.6 1.3 .4 - .2 .6 1.6 1.7 2J 1.2 1.5 .5 .6 - .2 .7 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.1 1.4 .7 .8 .3 .9 2.0 2.1 26 1.3 1.5 .9 .6 1.1 .5 1.8 1.0 .7 .6 .7 2.0 1.2 .9 11 .9 2.1 1.0 1.4 1.8 .7 1.5 1.9 1.0 1.8 2.2 11 .9 2.3 1.6 3.0 .1 .3 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.5 19 2.8 3.6 -1 .0 3.6 4.0 -2 .9 2.2 3.7 -1 .7 2.2 2.5 -1 .6 2.4 2.6 -1 .9 1.5 2.8 -2 .0 1.6 2.3 -2.1 1.6 2.3 - .8 3.2 2.7 -.3 2.0 2.4 -1 .8 2.1 2.5 -1 .5 22 28 -1 .4 N o te: Data include wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family workers. to grow 2.9 percent a year between 1982 and 1995, com pared with 3.1 percent during the 1969-79 period, and .1 percent during the 1979-82 period. However, it is expected that new labor-saving technologies will cause shifts to occur among industries, with many of the old-line factory jobs giving way to new industries and occupations. Technology and changing demand. Labor-saving technol ogies are not the only cause of employment shifts among industries. Another determinant obviously is the demand for an industry’s products. It is useful to separate aggregate demand into two categories— final demand and intermediate demand. Final demand includes consumer expenditures, 24 Most machinery is becoming smaller and being built with less steel. This change is reflected in the inputs to most industries, but causes a secondary impact on the demand for iron ore and coal. Other changes in intermediate demand are not expected to be as large as those just described. The age structure of the population and health concerns are likely to cause some changes in the kinds of foods consumed and how they are packaged— less sugar and salt, more microwave and frozen foods. Food and beverages will be packaged more in plastic and paper products, less in metal cans. Plastics are likely to become even more commonplace and used in a multitude of new ways, as their cost comes down and durability im proves. The radial tire and lower annual car mileage should slow down the domestic tire industry. As consumers keep their cars longer, maintenance and repair of vehicles will increase. A continuation in the substitution of synthetic fibers for natural fibers (cotton and wool) in clothing and textile prod ucts is projected, although this trend is expected to slow. Also projected is a change in how the advertising dollar is spent in the future. There will be a drop in the proportion spent on newspaper advertising, and an increase in that spent on radio and on commercial and cable television. This goes along with the closing of many afternoon newspapers, as the trend to watching news on television increases. government purchases, investment in capital equipment and structures, exports, and imports. Intermediate demand refers to purchases necessary in the production process; for ex ample, final demand by consumers for cars leads to inter mediate demand by auto producers for steel, glass, plastic, and so forth. Intermediate demand changes over time for several rea sons. New technology is but one. Other reasons include substitutions necessitated by the changing relative prices of inputs, or scarcity of inputs, or changes in the relative dis tribution of goods which the industry produces. Many times, a large increase or decline in demand for one product of an industry can have an impact on the sup plying industries, even when the technology is not changing. When this demand change is coupled with a change in the production process, the impact can be even larger. The energy crisis of the 1970’s has led to some of these changes. As gasoline became more expensive, and the Con gress mandated better fuel efficiency in domestic cars, the inputs to the production of autos changed. Cars became smaller, taking less steel (and lighter weight steel). Spare tires were replaced with smaller tires, and electronic ignition systems and “ computers” were added to make cars more fuel efficient. Also, businesses were forced to be more en ergy efficient. Over time, they reduced their demand for electricity, gas, and oil by replacing older machines with more efficient models, renovating heating systems, and in creasing building insulation. Some changes occurred because of new technologies, and because these technologies were becoming more affordable. Advances in electronic components and computer chips made small business computers more prevalent and personal com puters and video games quite common in private homes. Although this is reflected mainly as a final demand change, these same electronic components led to “ smarter” ma chinery, which can do more. This trend will accelerate in the 1980’s— most types of machinery are projected to in clude electronic components in the future. Changing intermediate demand also affects the projection of miscellaneous business services. Many firms contract out for the services of this industry—computer software and services, mailing and reproduction services, building ser vices, and personnel, management, and public relations ser vices. As the demand for computers grows, obviously the demand for software will also grow. Businesses are finding that it is more efficient to get specialized services from professionals, instead of trying to do everything in-house. Another growing component in business overhead is tele phone communications. Firms have become increasingly dependent on telephone communication as business travel became more expensive and establishments more geograph ically spread out. As the capability of computers to “ talk” to one another expands, this should become even more important. We have only begun to see the advances which are possible in this industry. Output and employment: selected industries Many industries are projected to show very rapid output and employment growth over the next several years but, for a lot of them, growth mainly represents a catchup following the severe 1980-82 recessionary period. (See table 3.) A list of the top 10 growth industries for the 1982-95 period illustrates how the recession and its subsequent recovery can impact the long-range growth outlook. (See table 4.) Several industries are on the list solely because their 1982 level of output or employment was so drastically reduced, and not because they are expected to be the high-growth industries of the I980’s. Examples are iron and ferroalloy ores mining (1982 output was half the 1981 level and em ployment less than two-thirds), and new construction. In addition, other industries not on the fastest-growing list may have faster growth rates projected for the years from 1982 to 1990 as they recover from recession, but their overall 1982-95 rate is projected to be lower than those industries on the list. Examples are chemical and fertilizer mining, fabricated metal stampings, engines and turbines, material handling equipment, household appliances, and miscella neous transportation equipment. New construction, along with the motor vehicle industry, actually led the recent downturn, as high inflation and in terest rates constricted purchases of new homes and new cars. As the recession spread to supplier industries and to other areas of the economy, high unemployment and re sulting concern over job security added to consumers’ re- 25 Table 3. Gross product by major sector, actual and projected, 1959-95 B illio ns of 1 9 7 2 dollars 1995 199 0 Sector 195 9 196 9 197 9 198 2 otal private ..................................................... Farm ............................................................ Nonfarm ........................................................ $629.5 27.8 601.7 $951.9 29.5 922.4 $1,326.4 34.2 1,292.2 Mining........................................................ Construction.............................................. Manufacturing............................................ Durable ................................................. Nondurable............................................ Transportation and public utilities .............. Transportation....................................... Communications ................................... Public utilities ....................................... Trade . .'................................................... Wholesale.............................................. Retail..................................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate ........... Services..................................................... Government enterprises ............................ Private households..................................... Rest of world and statistical discrepancy . . 13.3 45.5 171.2 100.9 70.3 55.4 29.9 11.5 14.0 115.4 42.0 73.4 98.5 76.9 11.8 6.7 7.0 18.2 55.8 277.2 170.3 106.8 92.6 43.4 23.8 25.3 173.6 70.6 103.0 152.9 121.4 16.8 5.8 8.1 20.8 58.2 367.0 223.4 143.6 140.0 56.3 49.0 34.7 250.7 106.5 144.2 229.4 184.1 21.2 3.6 17.2 Low M o d erate High Low M o d erate H igh $1,329.4 39.0 1,290.4 $1,690.0 40.6 1,649.4 $1,753.8 41.6 1,712.2 $1,838.4 41.9 1,796.5 $1,976.8 41.8 1,935.0 $2,001.3 43.1 1,958.2 $2,113.3 43.4 2,069.9 21.6 47.7 336.1 197.4 138.7 138.9 46.8 57.2 34.9 248.0 106.3 141.7 251.0 205.6 21.6 3.1 16.8 24.3 56.3 448.4 280.7 167.7 192.8 60.7 91.2 40.9 297.8 126.5 171.3 325.4 260.4 23.2 2.8 18.0 25.1 64.3 470.4 296.1 174.3 203.3 63.6 97.5 42.2 314.9 132.6 182.3 340.9 270.7 24.0 2.9 -4 .3 25.3 73.2 490.7 312.3 178.4 213.0 66.0 103.5 43.5 332.4 140.0 192.4 351.5 283.5 24.9 3.0 -1 .0 26.4 63.1 535.5 344.8 190.7 234.3 71.4 117.5 45.4 336.2 142.4 193.8 384.6 303.3 24.5 2.6 24.5 27.0 73.8 548.7 353.4 195.3 239.7 73.0 120.3 46.4 353.1 147.8 205.3 391.4 307.8 25.3 2.8 -11.4 27.3 86.5 572.6 372.7 199.9 251.9 76.1 127.8 48.0 376.3 157.6 218.7 405.5 323.9 26.6 3.0 -3 .7 A verage annual rate of change 1 9 9 0 -9 5 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 5 9 -6 9 Total private ..................................................... Farm ............................................................ Nonfarm ....................................................... Mining....................................................... Construction.............................................. Manufacturing............................................ Durable ................................................ Nondurable............................................ Transportation and public utilities .............. Transportation....................................... Communications ................................... Public utilities ....................................... Trade ....................................................... Wholesale.............................................. Retail..................................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate ........... Services..................................................... Government enterprises ............................ Private households..................................... Rest of world and statistical discrepancy . . 1Not computable. S ource: Historical data are from the U .S . 1 9 6 9 -7 9 Low M oderate High Low M od e ra te High Low M o d erate High 4.2 .6 4.4 3.4 1.5 3.4 0.1 4.5 - .0 3.0 .5 3.1 3.5 .8 3.6 4.1 .9 4.2 3.2 .6 3.2 2.7 .7 2.7 2.8 .7 2.9 3.1 .6 3.2 3.2 .7 3.3 3.6 .8 3.7 3.2 2.1 4.9 5.4 4.3 5.3 3.8 7.5 6.1 4.2 5.3 3.4 4.5 4.7 3.6 -1.4 1.5 1.3 .4 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.2 2.6 7.5 3.2 3.7 4.2 3.4 4.1 4.3 2.4 -4 .7 7.8 1.3 -6 .4 -2 .9 -4 .0 -1 .2 - .3 -6 .0 5.3 .2 - .4 -.1 - .6 3.0 3.8 .6 -4 .9 - .8 1.5 2.1 3.7 4.5 2.4 4.2 3.3 6.0 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.3 3.0 .9 -1.1 .9 1.9 3.8 4.3 5.2 2.9 4.9 3.9 6.9 2.4 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.3 - .9 (1) 2.0 5.5 4.8 5.9 3.2 5.5 4.4 7.7 2.8 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.1 1.8 - .3 (1) 1.7 2.3 3.6 4.2 2.6 4.0 3.3 5.2 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.1 1.1 -1 .4 6.4 1.5 2.8 3.1 3.6 2.3 3.3 2.8 4.3 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.6 1.1 - .8 -21.3 1.5 3.4 3.1 3.6 2.3 3.4 2.9 4.3 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.7 1.3 - .3 -29.9 1.6 2.2 3.6 4.4 2.5 4.1 3.3 5.7 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.4 3.3 3.0 1.0 -1 .2 2.9 1.8 3.4 3.8 4.6 2.7 4.3 3.5 5.9 2.2 2.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.2 1.2 - .9 (1) 1.9 4.7 4.2 5.0 2.8 4.7 3.8 6.4 2.5 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.6 1.6 - .3 (1) Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. taper to 1.9 million by 1995. While new housing construction was in a severe slump, maintenance and repair construction was buoyant. As one might expect, the inability to purchase a new house led many consumers to renovate their present dwellings. In addition, high oil prices and energy tax credits resulted in substantial investments in energy conservation measures. The output of maintenance and repair construction (almost two-thirds of which is for residences) rose 4.6 percent a year from 1979 to 1981, more than three times as fast as its long-term expansion rate of 1.5 percent. Employment dropped in 1982 as the industry succumbed to the general economic recession. A turnaround is projected, with the output of maintenance and repair construction projected to grow 2.2 percent a year through 1995. Unlike new residential construction, nonresidential con struction suffered a setback in the mid-1970’s, and has al ready begun the recovery anticipated for homebuilding. A 2.1-percent growth rate is projected for nonresidential con struction between 1982 and 1995. Growth of industrial luctance to make major spending commitments. Investment in residential construction and motor vehicle production each dropped by almost a third between 1979 and 1982. Employment is projected to fare better in 1983 and suc ceeding years. As unemployment falls and the economy recovers, many durable goods industries will at first rebound strongly and then eventually resume long-term growth pat terns. Some sectors, however, will not be able to recover to long-term growth paths, as changing markets and tech nologies crimp expansion. (See table 5 for employment by industry.) Recovery in construction. Housing starts plunged from 2 million units in 1978 to fewer than 1.1 million in 1982, the result of high interest rates which drove many families out of the market for a new home. Pent-up demand will spur new home sales as interest rates fall, but by the late 1980’s, a slowdown in the rate of new household formation will dampen these demand pressures. New housing starts are projected to climb steadily to 2.2 million by 1988, but then 1 9 8 2 -9 5 1 9 7 9 -8 2 26 at 3.6 million units, or 30 percent of all new car sales after 1989, as more foreign automakers open plants in the United States. Flat demand after the recovery period, foreign competi tion, and new automated methods of production do not bode well for employment in the auto industry. Only 127,000 of the 284,000 jobs lost between 1979 and 1982 are projected to be recovered by 1990. After 1990, employment increases will be moderate through 1995. The projected 1995 level of 860,000 jobs for the motor vehicle industry falls short of the 1 million peak recorded in 1978. structures such as plants and utilities will exceed 5 percent a year, while commercial buildings and other structures will grow much more slowly. Total employment in new and repair construction peaked at 5.9 million in 1979, but fell to 5.5 million in 1982. The job picture will brighten as the industry recovers, with em ployment projected to reach 7.9 million by 1995. Growth will be faster between 1982 and 1990, rising 3.0 percent a year, then taper to a 2.6-percent annual rate between 1990 and 1995. Construction-related industries. Output and employment trends in many construction-related industries mirror the patterns just described. Logging, sawmills, planing mills, and other wood product industries, which are heavily de pendent on residential construction, suffered sizable output and employment losses between 1979 and 1982. These in dustries as a group took a 20-percent job cutback over that period. As residential construction improves, jobs in wood products industries should reappear. Employment is pro jected to grow 2.0 percent a year from 1982 to 1990 and .6 percent a year during the 1990-95 period. Almost all the growth is projected to be in millwork and plywood shops. Employment in logging, sawmills, and planing mills, which had been declining slightly even before the recession, will hold about level. Most other construction-related industries will also show recovery from 1982’s depressed levels. Included in this group are stone and clay products, fabricated structural metal, electric lighting and wiring, household appliances, furni ture, and mobile homes. Most of the rebound occurs by 1988 or 1989, after which growth tapers off. High-tech industries, b l s has developed three definitions of high technology industries based on the utilization of work ers in technology-oriented occupations and on expenditures for research and development.4 In addition, some judgments were made to include or exclude industries based on the major product or activity of the industry. Whichever defi nition is used, employment in high technology industries is projected to increase faster than total employment between 1982 and 1995; however, the contribution of high-tech in dustries to total job growth will be relatively small. Under the broadest of the three definitions, high-tech industries account for 17 percent of all new jobs between 1982 and 1995; under the second definition, they account for 8 per cent; while under the narrowest definition, they represent slightly more than 3 percent. These ratios are about in line with the industries’ share of new jobs over the previous decade. Projected employment growth rates vary widely among high-technology industries. Computer and data processing services and research and development laboratories, the only nonmanufacturing industries in the group, will show some Motor vehicles. Like home construction, the motor vehicle industry was hit especially hard by high inflation and interest rates. The value of domestic production was cut by onefourth in 1980, followed by an additional 10-percent drop in 1982. Workers in the industry suffered massive layoffs— 284,000 jobs were lost over the 3-year span, with employ ment falling to a level of 707,000 by 1982 from 991,000 in 1979. Consumers are projected to increase demand for motor vehicles as interest rates fall. New car sales are expected to climb to more than 12 million vehicles per year by 1988, compared with just 8 million in 1982. After the catchup from 1982’s depressed sales levels, however, new car sales are projected to plateau because of long-term demographic shifts which have already begun. The large numbers of new car buyers who flooded show rooms in the 1970’s to purchase their first cars are now in older age groups. This surge of first-time buyers will not be seen again, at least not for several decades. Imported autos held steady throughout the recession at 2.3 million units, as the drop in purchases occurred solely among domestic models. Imports are projected to stabilize 27 Table 4. Projected e m ploym ent changes for selected industries, 1 9 8 2 -9 5 Average inn ual rate of change Industry 1 9 8 2 -9 5 1 9 8 2 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.7 4.0 4.2 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.6 3.3 6.1 3.6 1.1 3.4 3.0 4.0 2.4 3.7 2.7 2.8 -3 .3 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .2 -2.1 -2 .0 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .3 -2 .3 -2.1 -2 .3 -2.4 -1 .2 -1 .0 -1 .8 -1 .5 -1 .9 -1 .4 -4 .9 -2 .6 -2 .2 -1 .9 -3 .4 -3 .7 -1 .2 -1 .5 - .8 -1 .3 Fastest grow ing: , Medical and dental instruments .......................... Business services............................................... Iron and ferroalloy ores mining .......................... Computers and peripheral equipment ................ Radio and television broadcasting ..................... Other medical services........................................ Plastic products ................................................. Scientific and controlling instruments ................ Electronic components........................................ New construction ............................................... M ost rap id ly declining: Leather tanning and industrial leather ................ Dairy products (processed)................................. Wooden containers............................................ Leather products, including footwear ................ Tobacco manufacturers ..................................... Bakery products . . . ........................................ Railroad transportation........................................ Cotton ............................................................... Private households ............................................ Dairy and poultry products (farm) ..................... N o te : workers. Data include wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family T able 5. A ctual and projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5 [In thousands] Actual Industry Projected 1 990 1959 196 9 1979 1 99 5 1982 Low Moderate High Low High Moderate Agriculture: Dairy and poultry products............................................ Meat animals and livestock ......................................... Cotton .......................................................................... Food and feed grains ................................................... Other agricultural products............................................ 1,551 979 565 960 1,436 813 756 172 635 1,119 463 544 60 602 1,192 429 524 61 603 1,198 378 474 55 585 1,138 384 473 54 589 1,151 387 475 55 593 1,162 344 439 50 571 1,096 360 445 50 577 1,118 367 450 51 585 1,141 Mining: Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining..................................... Copper ore mining ....................................................... Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper .............. Coal mining ................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural gas (except drilling) ......... Stone and clay mining and quarrying ............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ......................... 33 23 31 201 200 105 19 30 34 25 138 157 99 18 31 33 38 261 212 104 25 16 25 34 242 311 90 24 25 27 34 299 275 85 31 25 27 34 286 291 87 31 22 26 33 275 282 92 31 25 33 35 310 332 72 35 26 35 34 317 338 77 35 23 36 34 322 307 87 35 Construction: New construction (including oil well drilling) ................ Maintenance and repair construction ............................ 3,163 662 3,594 792 4,679 1,224 4,067 1,424 5,242 1,778 5,263 1,700 5,366 1,685 5,936 1,861 6,043 1,882 6,091 1,912 Manufacturing: Durable goods: Ordnance ..................................................................... Complete guided missiles and space vehicles................ Logging ........................................................................ Sawmills and planing m ills............................................ Other millwork, plywood, and wood products .............. Wooden containers....................................................... Household furniture ..................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household....................... Glass ............................................................................ Cement and concrete products ..................................... 50 94 143 305 261 43 259 124 153 209 175 107 138 230 310 36 316 153 188 228 73 81 150 237 394 19 329 176 202 255 79 105 126 179 317 15 270 180 173 209 90 130 130 192 400 12 334 193 198 222 87 130 131 196 406 12 346 199 201 240 88 127 133 210 416 13 368 205 205 250 88 149 124 206 414 10 346 200 211 215 85 140 128 209 419 11 357 206 212 240 90 143 130 215 427 12 392 208 214 257 Structural clay products................................................ Pottery and related products.......................................... Other stone and clay products ..................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products ....................... Iron and steel foundries and forgings............................ Primary copper and copper products ............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products .................. Primary nonferrous metals and products....................... Metal containers .......................................................... Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures....................... 78 49 125 588 269 137 111 78 75 71 64 45 140 644 312 160 153 93 87 76 52 52 165 571 324 161 170 93 80 76 34 40 132 394 221 135 140 80 64 61 35 44 156 420 247 157 167 83 67 72 37 45 164 435 255 160 174 84 69 73 39 46 173 430 258 164 175 86 70 80 29 46 175 433 264 166 168 83 61 77 30 49 182 447 270 170 178 85 62 78 33 50 191 444 275 178 183 90 66 88 Fabricated structural metal products.............................. Screw machine products .............................................. Metal stampings .......................................................... Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ..................... Other fabricated metal products..................................... Engines, turbines, and generators ................................ Farm machinery............................................................ Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery ................ Material handling equipment.......................................... Metalworking machinery .............................................. 344 88 189 135 231 90 128 162 65 251 440 114 255 165 315 112 141 202 95 347 535 117 245 185 376 145 184 276 106 379 461 92 187 143 331 113 139 254 87 319 537 112 234 177 388 151 164 315 110 371 572 115 249 184 414 152 170 321 113 388 598 117 253 188 413 152 173 325 120 393 563 118 236 198 399 165 167 343 123 373 619 121 252 200 430 167 172 357 125 400 664 122 259 204 436 170 178 368 136 415 Special industry machinery............................................ General industrial machinery......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery....................................... Computers and peripheral equipment............................ Typewriters and other office equipment......................... Service industry machines ............................................ Electric transmission equipment ................................... Electrical industrial apparatus ....................................... Household appliances ................................................... Electric lighting and w irin g............................................ 164 221 166 111 28 97 157 176 157 134 206 291 246 224 52 147 207 223 187 205 205 329 313 339 59 188 221 251 178 225 176 288 292 428 47 159 215 206 142 187 206 336 323 586 55 190 235 255 175 229 207 342 331 586 60 199 245 261 183 239 211 343 341 593 64 211 246 275 193 246 210 350 339 665 67 208 246 284 185 251 213 356 345 694 69 214 256 288 188 253 221 362 362 706 73 232 263 313 202 253 Radio and television receiving sets................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................. Radio and communication equipment............................ Electronic components ................................................ Other electrical machinery and equipment..................... Motor vehicles.............................................................. Aircraft ........................................................................ Ship and boat building and repair ................................ Raiiroad equipment....................................................... Motorcycles, bicycles, and pa rts................................... 114 105 252 213 111 696 722 151 41 9 156 146 409 394 125 912 805 193 51 14 116 165 357 525 176 991 632 230 74 20 93 148 424 561 153 707 629 223 37 14 95 177 452 725 162 794 716 260 45 17 106 185 433 745 170 834 680 254 47 18 110 199 440 793 180 828 664 248 47 19 106 208 532 862 192 847 761 277 47 19 113 209 460 850 194 860 709 270 50 20 116 230 463 855 209 871 701 263 52 21 Other transportation equipment..................................... Scientific and controlling instruments............................ Medical and dental instruments..................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipment..............: ................ Photographic equipment and supplies............................ Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices................ Jewelry and silverware .............................................. Musical instruments and sporting goods................ 23 166 45 85 69 30 67 116 89 195 82 75 111 35 78 149 103 215 144 81 134 28 92 145 74 226 158 77 140 18 76 130 87 294 205 83 167 22 75 134 96 292 203 86 169 22 82 140 108 292 210 89 173 23 88 144 104 345 270 88 175 23 96 143 109 349 272 92 177 21 98 146 121 359 274 98 184 22 109 150 28 . Tab le S .C o n iin u e d — A ctual aod projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5 [ In t h o u s a n d s ] Actual Projected industry 1 99 0 1 959 1 969 1 979 199 5 1 982 Low Moderate High Low Moderate High 229 233 245 218 210 214 224 216 218 238 Nondurable goods: Meat products.............................................. Dairy products.............................................. Canned and frozen fo ods.............................. Grain mill products....................................... Bakery products............................................ Sugar .......................................................... Confectionery products ................................ Alcoholic beverages ..................................... Soft drinks and flavorings ............................ Other food products ..................................... 324 326 249 139 313 38 79 107 111 144 344 260 291 137 286 36 87 97 142 151 363 189 316 147 238 31 80 86 153 160 352 171 293 135 227 29 73 87 145 152 359 137 331 143 203 30 77 83 164 171 357 144 335 145 210 30 78 86 168 171 359 156 341 145 209 31 80 85 169 168 368 119 336 140 164 27 69 76 159 177 372 127 341 144 174 28 71 80 167 182 380 131 353 147 177 30 76 83 171 182 Tobacco manufacturing ................................ Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ....................... Floor covering mills ..................................... Other textile mill products ............................ Hosiery and knit goods ................................ Apparel ....................................................... Other fabricated textile products .................. Paper products ............................................ Paperboard ................................................... Newspaper printing and publishing .............. 95 619 39 74 221 1,100 143 415 175 328 83 616 58 82 251 1,244 182 483 231 376 70 531 61 71 227 1,125 198 494 214 432 68 442 49 60 205 1,009 171 475 189 445 61 448 52 69 207 1,056 220 513 190 492 62 461 56 72 218 1,074 223 516 201 494 64 457 63 75 218 1,061 228 524 209 491 52 474 58 67 236 1,125 238 533 192 535 58 482 62 74 240 1,093 243 551 208 543 Periodical and book printing and publishing . . Other printing and publishing ....................... Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals . . Agricultural chemicals.................................. Other chemical products .............................. Plastic materials and synthetic rubber........... Synthetic fibers ............................................ Drugs .......................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations.................... Paints and allied products ........................... 156 446 260 54 82 81 79 106 89 62 210 550 296 65 124 108 132 143 123 72 230 640 328 70 99 100 112 193 140 69 248 668 329 65 95 89 97 199 147 62 296 733 362 81 107 110 110 253 166 68 298 758 358 84 111 114 116 254 168 71 304 751 353 84 121 119 124 252 166 72 330 745 371 82 116 113 121 276 167 65 338 789 379 88 120 116 124 281 176 70 344 803 381 93 121 124 134 284 178 73 Petroleum refining and related products Tires and inner tubes .................................. Rubber products except tires and tubes Plastic products............................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........... Leather products including footwear.............. 217 105 178 94 36 341 182 119 162 320 29 316 210 127 167 494 20 232 202 105 140 460 19 206 185 100 147 565 15 166 183 102 151 636 16 170 182 104 157 653 16 172 179 101 146 654 11 147 182 104 150 716 12 154 183 108 159 741 14 144 Transportation: Railroad transportation ................................ Local transit and intercity buses .................. Truck transportation ..................................... Water transportation..................................... Air transportation.......................................... Pipeline transportation................................... Transportation services ................................ 930 311 1,001 239 184 24 70 651 315 1,214 234 357 18 111 559 303 1,555 222 443 20 198 433 314 1,454 206 450 22 224 353 345 1,720 197 522 22 261 373 341 1,701 210 532 24 269 429 345 1,702 214 528 25 250 327 350 1.750 204 561 24 295 351 361 1,774 214 568 24 302 377 385 1,793 216 573 27 302 Communications: Radio and television broadcasting ................ Communications except radio and television . 90 749 131 919 191 1,121 221 1,199 301 1,384 308 1,379 292 1,434 355 1,543 357 1,593 359 1,603 Public utilities: Electric utilities, public and private................ Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic....................... Water and sanitary services, except public . . 430 215 61 460 220 88 608 220 94 684 230 106 686 220 140 712 218 133 714 219 135 730 205 144 740 207 147 746 211 154 Trade: Wholesale tra de............................................ Eating and drinking places............................ Retail trade, except eating and drinking places 3,349 1,960 7,936 4,163 2,812 9,729 5,507 4,864 11,981 5,585 5,159 11,792 6,162 5,908 13,815 6,298 5,951 14,106 6,387 5,959 14,303 6,622 6,669 14,473 6,734 6,742 15,070 6,745 6,772 15,342 Finance, insurance, and real estate: Banking ....................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers ........... Insurance..................................................... Real estate ................................................... 644 389 1,137 753 987 652 1,370 855 1,498 901 1.750 1,374 1,655 1,038 1,870 1,336 1,954 1,313 2,187 1,567 1,954 1,350 2,169 1,640 1,968 1,364 2,168 1,168 2,098 1,507 2,237 1,764 2,120 1,518 2,272 1,774 2,146 1,549 2,307 1,787 Services: Hotels and lodging places ........................... Personal and repair services......................... Barber and beauty shops.............................. Miscellaneous business services .................. Advertising ................................................... Miscellaneous professional services.............. Automobile repair......................................... Motion pictures ............................................ Amusements and recreation services ........... Doctors’ and dentists' services .................... Hospitals ..................................................... Medical services, except hospitals................ 868 1,157 538 814 121 746 422 228 372 605 974 303 1,065 1,232 634 1,691 134 1,046 569 248 497 806 1,776 672 1,549 1,239 632 3,178 165 1,814 839 311 769 1,351 2,614 1,431 1,693 1,305 624 3,743 186 2,147 910 310 870 1,503 3,016 1,664 1,914 1,466 652 4,951 213 2,573 965 325 1,035 1,876 3,895 2,089 1,915 1,519 660 5,172 218 2,640 1,029 315 1,059 1,897 3,963 2,208 1,891 1,621 685 5,331 221 2,620 1,101 316 1,082 2,036 3,889 2,279 2,004 1,547 707 6,148 228 2,916 1,113 323 1,173 1,971 4,471 2,649 2,010 1,592 733 6,183 234 3,004 1,141 326 1,193 2,005 4,477 2,688 2,034 1,734 760 6,229 238 3,099 1,186 337 1,248 2,095 4,665 2,744 O th e r m a n u fa c tu re d p ro d u c ts 29 50 471 57 65 224 1,117 234 526 ■ 179 517 Table 5 .C o n tin u ed — A ctual and projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5 [ In t h o u s a n d s ] Projected Actual Industry 1959 196 9 197 9 198 2 Educational services (private) ....................................... Nonprofit organizations ................................................. Private households........................................................ Forestry and fishery products....................................... Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services..................... 839 1,331 2,574 60 285 1,229 1,764 2,322 55 329 1,721 2,073 1,723 83 489 1,882 2,095 1,635 84 585 2,447 2,387 1,443 73 640 Government enterprises: Post office ................................................................... Other federal enterprises .............................................. Local government passenger transit.............................. Other state and local government enterprises................ 574 104 71 225 732 152 87 351 661 155 130 541 662 150 173 496 629 182 207 610 N o te: 1 99 5 199 0 Low Moderate H igh High Low 2,157 2,406 1,400 79 623 2,001 2,449 1,392 89 613 2,311 2,455 1,295 96 704 2,396 2,505 1,346 92 711 2,411 2,606 1,368 99 716 597 178 209 623 595 182 215 649 537 182 228 700 581 189 233 723 594 198 251 781 Moderate Data include wage and salary workers, the selt-employed, and unpaid family workers. Communication equipment. Demand for communication equipment such as radios, televisions, telephone apparatus, radar, laser systems, satellites, and similar items will almost double between 1982 and 1995. New telecommunications services required by businesses and consumers will be aug mented by increasing defense expenditures, at least in the earlier years. Imports are not expected to make additional inroads into the market but rather are projected to hold a smaller share of total output by 1995. Employment, on the other hand, will not rise as rapidly as output. Productivity gains have typically been rapid in the manufacture of communications equipment, and this trend will hold. Employment in radio and television set production, which had suffered because of import compe tition and slack demand for all consumer durables during the recession, is projected to rebound and grow 1.5 percent a year between 1982 and 1995. The 1995 level, however, will still fall far short of the previous peak. Jobs in telephone apparatus manufacturing are projected to grow 2.7 percent a year, while in radio and other communications equipment, productivity advances will limit job gains to .6 percent a year. of the highest annual rates of increase, 5.2 percent and 3.9 percent respectively. Other rapid gainers are medical and dental instruments (4.2 percent), office and computing ma chines (3.7 percent), electronic components (3.2 percent), and engines and turbines (3.1 percent). On the other hand, the chemical industries as a group and petroleum refining are projected to have much lower growth rates because of oil price effects. In fact, employment in petroleum refining is projected to decline 1.6 percent a year. Computers. Demand for computers and related equipment such as data storage devices, printers, calculators, and sim ilar items is projected to continue to boom through the 1990’s. Computer process control and computer-assisted design and manufacture will be widespread. Purchases of computer equipment will represent about one-fifth of all capital expenditures by businesses, by far their largest item of durable equipment spending. Investment, export, and government demand for computers will soon be supple mented by personal consumption expenditures. Foreign competition, although projected to rise, is not expected to significantly hamper the expansion of domestic output. Im ports will continue to represent about 7 percent of total output. The value of domestic production of computers and peripheral equipment is projected to post a 6.9-percent yearly growth rate, ranking it among the top five output gainers. Employment in computer manufacturing is projected to grow 3.8 percent a year. Productivity gains have typically been very rapid in this industry, and this will continue. Aerospace. Defense demand is also expected to boost pro duction in the aircraft and guided missiles and space vehicles industries. Most of this growth will occur by the mid-1980’s, after which real defense expenditures are projected to mod erate sharply. Commercial aircraft manufacturers are ex pected to meet serious competition from foreign producers, both in their domestic and overseas markets. Output of the aircraft industry is projected to expand 1.8 percent a year during 1982-95, while employment grows at a .9 percent rate. Electronic components. Electronic components are expected to become an even more integral part of consumer and capital goods than they are now. Domestic production will expand by 7.6 percent a year between 1982 and 1995. Im ports are projected to grow at about the same rate, keeping the import share of total output of electronic components at about 14 percent. Employment is projected to rise from 561,000 in 1982 to 850,000 by 1995, a 3.2-percent yearly gain. Machinery. Other nonelectrical machinery (besides com puters, typewriters, and other office equipment) is projected to experience a strong rebound in demand as businesses begin to invest in new capital equipment. The sector is projected to enjoy a 4.3-percent average rate of output growth 30 between 1982 and 1995 (4.8 percent in the early years). Growth of domestic production occurs despite substantial import gains, because projected demand is so strong. Im ports are expected to account for larger shares of most nonelectrical machinery industries than they do now, but for no industry will the share top 15 percent. Leading the gains in domestic output will be engines and turbines and construction, mining, and oilfield machinery. Output of engines and turbines grows rapidly because of expected strong export demand, while the projected rebound in construction spurs demand for construction machinery. The metalworking machinery industry, which produces in dustrial robots, is projected to expand production by 3.5 percent a year through 1995, compared with declines or marginal growth since the mid-1960’s. Employment in nonelectrical machinery industries is pro jected to recover from 1982’s cutbacks and resume long term trends. Productivity gains are expected to be more rapid than for the durable goods sector as a whole, but because output also grows faster, there are opportunities for em ployment recovery. Most nonelectrical machinery industries will record new employment peaks by 1995. employment from the 1982 level. Some food industries (dairy products, bakery products, sugar, confectionery products, and alcoholic beverages) will actually lose jobs, while others (canned and frozen foods, soft drinks, meat products, grain mill products, and other miscellaneous food items) are pro jected to post slight job gains. Clothing purchases are projected to grow 2.6 percent a year between 1982 and 1995, but the share accounted for by imports will almost double, from 11 percent in 1977 to almost 22 percent by 1995. This shift in the site of pro duction will limit employment gains in the industry. Jobs are projected to increase from 1.0 million in 1982 to only 1.1 million in 1995. Some nondurable sectors are expected to enjoy consid erable output growth, such as drugs, chemicals, synthetic fibers, and plastics. Output in each of these industries is projected to grow by more than 4 percent a year. Employ ment growth in these sectors shows a wider range because of differing projections of productivity—jobs grow by 3.5 percent a year in plastic products (the seventh fastest of all industries studied), but only by 1.4 percent in chemicals. Steel and other primary metals. Because of the strong growth projected for new construction, autos, nonelectrical ma chinery, and other industrial apparatus, the primary metals industries are expected to expand production over the next several years following the 1980-82 recession. However, recovery is not expected to be complete. Competition from foreign suppliers as well as continued substitution of alter native materials, such as plastics or ceramics, will limit the markets for domestic primary metals producers. In the steel industry, which once employed 726,000 work ers, output dropped by half over the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, and employment declined to 394,000 by 1982. Many steel mills were closed during the 1975-82 period. Recovery is expected, but neither production nor employment are projected to reach prerecession levels by 1995. Further, the gains in employment are projected to be less rapid than the gains in output, as it is assumed that production can only expand if new technologies such as continuous casting, the direct reduction of iron ore, and the electric arc furnace are used. Minimills which can specialize and use the latest technologies will become more important. Employment in the steel industry is projected to reach 447,000 by 1995. Two primary metals, copper and aluminum manufactur ing, have a better outlook than iron and steel. Demand for copper will be boosted by the rebound in residential con struction, while aluminum will enjoy growth as a substitute for steel. The miscellaneous service sector will provide the most new job opportunities over the next decade and a half, with about twice as many new jobs as manufacturing. These jobs will be spread among various service industries, from med ical care to business and professional services to amuse ments and recreation. In sum, miscellaneous or “ other service” industries will account for more than 31 million jobs in 1995, almost one-fourth of total employment. Service industries are least affected by cyclical move ments, and the recent recession was no exception. While declines in employment were reported for almost every other sector, jobs in the other services sector expanded 3.7 percent a year throughout the 1979-82 recessionary period. Of course, job growth might have been even stronger without the eco nomic downturn, but almost 2.4 million jobs were added in these service industries during the period in which other sectors experienced layoffs. Miscellaneous services—most new jobs Business services. The largest industry in the “ other ser vice” category, miscellaneous business services, will have the most new jobs between 1982 and 1995. Employment is projected to grow from 3.7 million in 1982 to 6.2 million in 1995. A wide variety of services are included in this sector, such as personnel supply, business consuF-^ts (pro viding management services or public relations advice), jan itorial and protective services, and computer and data processing services. All are expected to show rapid growth. Total output for the industry is projected to grow 5.3 percent a year and employment, 3.9 percent. These rates, although among the highest of all industries studied, are still lower than the historical growth rates for the industry. Since 1958, output growth in business services has averaged 9.4 percent Nondurable goods. Nondurable manufactured goods are projected to experience modest growth over the next decade and a half. Food products industries can expect a 1.9-percent annual rate of increase in output, but little change in total 31 Growth slows in trade, government a year and employment, 7.0 percent. The slowdown is pro jected to occur as the industry matures and the shift from in-house services to contracting-out by businesses reaches a saturation point. Employment in wholesale and retail trade is projected to grow along with the rest of the economy, increasing from 22.5 million in 1982 to 28.5 million in 1995. Because total employment growth is slowing down, the rate of job growth in trade is also slower than it has been historically. Retail trade employment is projected to grow 2.0 percent a year, compared with 2.4 percent between 1958 and 1982; jobs in wholesale trade are projected to expand 1.4 percent an nually, compared with 2.5 percent in the past. The largest number of new job openings, about 1.6 mil lion, will be in eating and drinking establishments. Other retail firms posting large gains will be department stores, grocery stores, new car dealers, miscellaneous shopping goods stores (such as jewelry, books, cameras, and sporting goods), and drug and proprietary stores. Retail shops pro jected to actually lose jobs include mobile home dealers, variety stores, general merchandise stores, candy stores, dairy products stores, women’s accessory stores (such as millinery shops), children’s wear stores, and fur shops. In wholesale trade, the largest employment increases will be found in establishments selling machinery and equip ment, motor vehicles, miscellaneous nondurable goods, and electrical goods. Professional services. A related industry, miscellaneous professional services, is expected to follow the same trends. More than 850,000 jobs will be added to the sector between 1982 and 1995, but the rate of growth of both output and employment is projected to be smaller than the historical rates. This industry provides legal, engineering, architec tural, accounting, and other professional services to busi nesses. Employment is projected to top 3 million in 1995. Medical care. A very significant sector in terms of both number of jobs and rate of expansion has been the health field. Jobs in doctors’ and dentists’ offices more than dou bled during the 1960’s and 1970’s, rising 4.2 percent a year to 1.5 million in 1982. Hospital employment tripled, grow ing 5.1 percent a year between 1958 and 1982 to 3 million jobs. The other medical services industry had the most rapid growth—jobs in nursing homes and personal care facilities, outpatient clinics run by health maintenance organizations or group health associations, and drug or alcohol rehabili tation centers, increased more than five times, with em ployment reaching 1.7 million in 1982. Growth in health care employment was the result of many factors, chief among them the more widespread coverage of private medical insurance and the introduction of gov ernment health benefits programs such as medicare and med icaid. The projections assume no change in current law— that government funding will be maintained at its present level, except for changes stemming from inflation. Inflation in medical care costs poses the greatest uncer tainty in the projections of medical services output and em ployment. While the overall consumer price index has tripled since 1965, the index for medical care services has quad rupled. Despite these sharply increased costs, demand is projected to be even stronger in the projection period, as the population ages and as new, expensive technologies are used in life-saving treatments. Because of higher costs and the assumption of no new government programs, it is expected that output and em ployment in medical care services will slow from historical rates. Doctors’ and dentists’ office jobs are projected to grow 2.2 percent a year over the 13 years through 1995, or an increase of 500,000. By comparison, over the previous 13year period (1969-82), 700,000 jobs were added in medical offices. Hospital employment is projected to grow 3.1 per cent a year, from 3 million in 1982 to 4.5 million in 1995. Jobs in other medical services will expand by 3.8 percent a year to almost 2.7 million in 1995. Overall, the 3 million new health care jobs projected to be added between 1982 and 1995 represent almost 12 percent of the total number of new jobs. Government. Employment in government is projected to grow more slowly than private sector jobs, as has been true since 1975, but the opposite of the expansionary 1950’s and 1960’s. The state and local sector represents most of the slowdown, as only 1.2 million new jobs will be added over the next 13 years, compared with 3.6 million during the preceding 13-year period. Although job growth is slower than in the 1960’s, it still represents a reversal from the actual declines of the late 1970’s. In addition to tight budgets during the recession, declining school enrollments caused many state and local governments to reduce hiring. Beginning in 1984, however, enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is projected to turn up again as the children of the baby-boom generation advance through school, leading to a slight up turn in employment. Banking and transportation and utilities The output of financial and banking services is projected to show very large gains over the next decade and a half with the introduction of new consumer services such as automatic funds transfers and the more widespread use of investment counseling. The output of the banking industry and of credit agencies and financial brokers is projected to grow by 4.1 percent a year. Employment growth, on the other hand, will be very modest. Automatic teller machines and computerized bank ing and stock transactions will limit job gains to 1.9 percent a year. By comparison, employment in banking grew 4.4 32 percent through the 1960’s and 1970’s, as the expanding use of checking accounts created the need for large numbers of new hires for check processing. That impetus will not be repeated, however, as checking account use is now com monplace, and as automatic transfers replace manual check processing. The transportation, communications, and public utilities sector is not projected to contribute significantly to overall job growth, only adding slightly more than 1 million extra workers. However, output of this sector is projected to lead all other sectors in growth, reflecting the strong demand for new telecommunications services, as well as the divestiture of the telephone company. Output of the communications sector, which indudes radio and television broadcasting in addition to telephone and telegraph communications, is pro jected to expand by 5.9 percent a year, compared with 2.9 percent for the economy as a whole. Tab le 6. G ross national product, m oderate grow th path and high and low alternatives [ In b ill io n s o f 1 9 7 2 d o l la r s ] 1982 Low Low and high alternative projections Different industry employment levels in the low and high alternatives are primarily the result of two factors— (1) the unemployment rate and the size of the labor force are dif ferent in each case than in the moderate growth projection, leading to different levels of total employment, and (2) the distribution of final demand is markedly different, causing output and, therefore, employment at the industry level to vary significantly from the base case. (See table 6.) In the low-growth alternative, a smaller labor force and more unemployment results in 2.3 million fewer jobs. Al though total employment is only about 2 percent lower, at the industry level the difference between the base case and the low trend alternative ranges over a much broader band. For some industries, employment is almost 10 percent lower, while in others, it is actually higher than in the base case. This span results from the sharp differences in final demand and in projections of productivity. A disproportionate share of the job difference occurs in durable manufacturing industries because interest rates are higher than in the base case. Only manufacturing industries dependent on defense demand do not show this drop; defense expenditures, as well as other federal government pur chases, are actually higher in the low-growth scenario than in the bas.e case because it is assumed that the federal gov ernment increases spending to try to stimulate the sluggish economy. Examples of defense demand boosting output and employment to higher levels than in the base projection are in ordnance, guided missiles, radio and communication equipment, electronic components, aircraft, and shipbuild ing industries. Percent difference from moderate 1995 C om ponent M oderate High Low High Gross national product . . . . $1,485.4 $2,148.7 $2,166.9 $2,284.6 -0 .8 5.4 1,504.6 -2 .9 279.8 -6 .9 485.4 -4 .0 739.4 - .9 6.5 16.4 3.7 5.0 1,371.1 1,412.4 223.8 240.4 449.4 468.0 697.9 704.0 Personal consumption . . Durables .................. Nondurables .............. Services..................... 970.2 139.8 364.2 466.2 Gross private investment Equipment................ Structures ................ Residential................ Inventory change . . . 194.5 112.7 53.4 37.8 -9 .4 285.7 159.6 44.6 69.6 11.9 337.2 177.2 70.1 78.1 11.8 408.6 204.6 77.6 114.1 12.3 Net exports................... Exports..................... Imports..................... 28.9 147.3 118.4 148.4 267.9 119.4 85.9 260.0 174.1 23.0 72.8 -73.2 3.0 1.5 264.0 241.0 -31.4 38.4 Government. Federal ..................... Defense................ Nondefense ......... State and local ......... 291.8 116.6 78.8 37.8 175.2 343.5 157.0 113.2 43.8 186.5 331.4 139.2 98.9 40.3 192.2 348.4 3.7 145.9 12.8 103.9 14.5 8.7 41.9 202.5 -3 .0 S ource : -15.3 -9 .9 -36.4 -10.9 .8 21.2 15.5 10.7 46.1 4.2 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.0 5.4 1982 data are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. In addition, lower income growth results in much lower imports, leading to instances where domestic production of import-sensitive industries is higher in the low-growth al ternative than in the base case. This occurs in forestry and fishery products, nonferrous metal ores mining, chemical and fertilizer mining, and watches and clocks. In the high-growth alternative, many of these assumptions are reversed. Total employment in 1995 is 2.7 million higher than in the moderate case, based on a larger labor force and less unemployment. Like the low-growth alternative, al though total employment varies from the base case by about 2 percent, jobs at the industry level have a much broader range, in some instances topping the base case by as much as 13 percent. Monetary policy is assumed to be less restrictive in the high-growth alternative, resulting in a higher rate of infla tion. Inflation, however, contributes to making imports more attractive, and the rise in imports more than offsets increased domestic demand in several industries. Because of imports, domestic production in the high alternative is lower than in the base case for iron mining, crude petroleum, sugar, con fectionery products, apparel, leather tanning, leather prod ucts, and steel. Employment is also correspondingly lower; however, for sugar and confectionery products, lower pro ductivity keeps employment levels higher than in the base case. □ 33 FO O TN O TES 2 See Andreassen and others, “ The economic outlook for the !990’s ” for specific assumptions. 'S ee the following articles in this issue: Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John H. Tschetter, “ The 1995 labor force: a second lo o k ” , pp. 1-8; Arthur J. Andreassen, Norman C. Saunders, and Betty U. Su, “ The eco nomic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenarios for economic growth” ; pp. 9-21; and G eorge Silvestri, John M . Lukasiewicz, and Marcus E. Einstein, “ Occupational employment projections through 1995” , pp. 3547. 3See Fullerton and Tschetter, "The 1995 labor force". 4See Richard Riche. Daniel Hecker, and John Burgan, “ High technol ogy today and tom orrow; a small slice o f the em ploym ent p ie ,” M onthly L abor Review, Novem ber 1983, pp. 50— 58. 34 Occupational employment projections through 1995 During 1982-95, health care will continue to be an expanding field of work, typists are apt to decline due to word processors, and high technology should spur the growth of occupations such as engineers and computer personnel but dim the outlookfor others, especially drafters G e o r g e T . S i l v e s t r i , Jo h n M . L u k a s i e w i c z , and M a r c u s E . E in s t e in The most recent occupational projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest that a wide range of job skills will be needed in 1995. Employment in jobs requiring a college education or specialized post-secondary technical training are expected to increase significantly between 1982 and 1995. However, many jobs that do not require post-sec ondary training are also expected to expand significantly. For example, the projected rapid increase in demand for medical services will require large numbers of nursing aides and orderlies in addition to highly trained medical practi tioners. On the other hand, employment growth in many occu pations will be affected by technological change through the mid-1990’s. For example, word processing equipment will slow the employment growth of typists, and industrial robots will reduce the growth in employment of welders, produc tion painters, and material moving occupations. However, despite widespread technological advances, employment will continue to advance in most traditional fields from 1982 to 1995. More workers will be needed to drive trucks to deliver goods, to clean a growing number of buildings, to perform health and personal services and provide police and fire protection for our increasing population, and to maintain and repair a larger stock of automobiles, appliances, and factory equipment. Rapid expansion of high technology will spur the growth of scientists, engineers, technicians, and computer special ists. They will be required to design, develop, and use hightechnology products such as computers, scientific and med ical instruments, communication equipment, and robots. Employment in these occupations has generally grown faster than the economy as a whole and most are expected to continue to do so. However, even in some of these fields, technological advances will have an impact on reducing employment needs. For example, advances in computeraided design technology are expected to severely limit the employment growth of drafters. The pattern of industrial employment growth also has an important impact on expected changes in occupational struc ture, because many occupations are concentrated by indus try. Therefore, the information on occupational growth patterns presented in this article cannot be fully understood apart from the data and analyses dealing with economic and industry growth trends presented elsewhere in this issue of the Review. Indeed, the methodologies used to develop both the industry and occupational projections are very closely related.1 The authors are economists in the Division of Occupational Outlook, Bu reau o f Labor Statistics. 35 Table 1. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1979, 1982, and projected 1995 Total e m ploym ent (in thousands) P ercent change 1995 Occupation 1 979 1882 Low trend Total, all occupations................................................................... 101,206 101,510 124,846 Professional, technical, and related workers ............................ 15,758 16,584 21,545 1,204 1,787 1,177 Engineers ............................................................................ 44 44 65 Aero-astronautic engineers .............................................. 79 56 58 Chemical engineers .......................................................... 156 155 226 Civil engineers ................................................................. 300 320 531 Electrical engineers .......................................................... 171 160 226 Industrial engineers.......................................................... 209 314 216 Mechanical engineers....................................................... 31 26 Petroleum engineers ....................................................... 16 1 9 7 9 -9 5 Moderate trend High trend Low trend 127,110 21,775 1,788 62 80 228 528 227 318 32 129,902 22,325 1,831 62 82 236 540 232 327 30 23 37 52 47 37 45 77 32 45 95 M oderate trend 1 9 8 2 -9 5 High trend Low trend 26 38 52 39 40 46 76 32 47 98 28 42 56 41 43 51 80 36 51 89 23 30 48 49 41 45 66 41 50 19 25 31 49 41 43 47 65 42 52 22 28 35 52 42 47 52 69 45 56 16 M oderate trend High trend Life and physical scientists................................................... Biological scientists.......................................................... Chemists.......................................................................... Geologists ........................................................................ Mathematical specialists....................................................... Engineering and science technicians..................................... Civil engineering technicians ............................................ Drafters............................................................................ Electrical and electronic technicians................................... Industrial engineering technicians..................................... Mechanical engineering technicians................................... Surveyors ........................................................................ 247 47 87 38 48 1,227 32 307 350 33 47 55 271 52 89 49 48 1,243 35 302 366 27 48 44 343 71 107 60 63 1,649 56 309 585 36 72 61 342 70 108 60 62 1,661 58 318 589 35 72 62 348 73 111 59 63 1,705 60 327 602 37 74 64 39 50 22 60 31 34 77 1 67 9 54 11 38 48 24 60 29 35 82 3 68 7 55 13 41 53 27 57 32 39 88 7 72 11 58 17 27 38 21 24 31 33 59 2 60 31 51 40 26 36 22 24 29 34 64 5 61 29 52 43 29 41 25 21 32 37 69 8 64 33 55 47 Medical workers, except technicians..................................... Chiropractors ................................................................... Dentists............................................................................ Dietitians.......................................................................... Nurses, registered............................................................ Optometrists..................................................................... Pharmacists..................................................................... Physicians........................................................................ Therapists ........................................................................ Respiratory therapists................................................... Occupational therapists ................................................. Physical therapists....................................................... Speech pathologists and audiologists........................... Veterinarians ................................................................... 2,231 22 161 41 1,165 32 143 436 186 42 22 37 40 34 2,463 25 173 44 1,312 28 151 479 202 46 25 43 42 36 3.471 33 213 61 1,943 35 188 640 291 67 40 68 53 48 3,491 32 213 62 1,954 34 192 642 294 67 40 69 54 48 3,600 32 218 64 2,022 35 196 663 302 70 41 70 55 48 56 46 32 48 67 9 31 47 56 61 85 84 31 42 56 45 33 50 68 8 34 47 58 62 86 s 85 33 41 61 45 36 55 74 9 37 52 62 68 92 89 36 43 41 28 23 38 48 26 24 34 44 44 58 57 27 31 42 27 24 40 49 25 27 34 45 45 60 58 29 30 46 27 27 44 54 26 30 38 50 50 64 62 32 32 Health technologists and technicians..................................... Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians .............. Medical laboratory technicians ..................................... Medical laboratory technologists .................................. Dental hygienists.............................................................. Physical therapy assistants .............................................. Radiologic technologists................................................... Radiologic technologists and nuclear medicine technicians .............................................................. X-ray technicians .......................................................... Surgical technicians.......................................................... 574 195 60 92 58 27 97 627 209 57 103 69 33 110 891 291 70 150 97 55 156 898 292 71 150 99 55 157 932 303 73 156 104 56 164 55 49 16 63 69 103 61 57 50 18 64 72 104 63 62 55 22 70 81 109 69 42 . 39 22 46 40 67 42 43 40 23 46 43 68 43 49 45 28 52 50 72 49 32 65 31 36 74 35 50 106 48 50 107 49 52 111 51 60 62 58 60 64 58 66 70 65 40 43 39 39 45 40 45 51 45 Technicians, excluding health, science, and engineering . . . . Airplane pilots................................................................... Library technicians............................................................ Computer specialists............................................................ Programmers................................................................... Systems analysts.............................................................. Social scientists................................................................... Economists ..................................................................... Psychologists................................................................... 338 78 28 447 231 216 175 29 69 364 80 29 521 266 254 206 30 83 451 102 32 935 465 469 267 39 109 453 103 32 943 471 471 267 38 110 465 104 33 960 480 480 273 39 112 33 31 15 109 101 118 52 35 59 34 32 16 111 104 119 52 32 60 38 34 19 115 107 123 56 36 63 24 28 9 79 75 85 30 29 32 24 29 10 81 77 85 30 27 33 28 31 13 84 80 89 33 30 36 Teachers ............................................................................... Adult education teachers................................................... College and university faculty............................................ Dance instructors ............................................................ Graduate assistants .......................................................... Preschool, kindergarten, elementary schoolteachers......... Preschool teachers....................................................... Kindergarten and elementary schoolteachers ................ Secondary schoolteachers................................................. Vocational education teachers .......................................... 3,967 107 686 23 138 1,668 285 1,383 1,083 99 3,980* 125 744 27 140 1,647 281 1,366 1,024 98 4.612 164 619 35 122 2,226 387 1,839 1,128 139 4,706 165 632 35 124 2,274 397 1,877 1,152 143 4,806 170 646 36 127 2,322 404 1,918 1,177 146 16 53 -1 0 51 -1 2 33 36 33 4 41 19 54 -8 52 -1 0 36 39 36 6 45 21 58 -6 57 -8 39 42 39 9 48 16 31 -1 7 31 -1 3 35 38 35 10 42 18 32 -1 5 32 -11 38 41 37 13 46 21 36 -1 3 36 -9 41 44 40 15 49 Selected writers, artists, and entertainers ............................ Actors............................................................................. Commercial and graphic artists and designers.................. Designers ...................................................................... Musicians ...................................................................... Painters, artistic .......................................................... Photographers ............................................................... Public relations specialists.......................................... Radio and TV announcers and newscasters........... Announcers.............................................. Reporters and correspondents ................................... Sports instructors .......................................... Writers and editors ................................................. 251 301 34 133 180 124 25 86 90 55 46 51 53 120 398 48 166 247 153 29 101 14 70 58 64 63 160 406 49 167 253 155 29 102 115 70 58 66 64 162 417 52 169 258 160 29 104 118 70 58 67 66 165 58 62 (1) 41 52 16 42 18 36 47 45 34 (1) 42 66 d) 42 55 19 42 21 39 48 46 36 (1) 45 32 40 25 38 23 17 18 35 43 26 41 25 16 18 38 51 27 44 28 16 21 27 25 26 20 34 28 26 29 21 35 (D 119 166 134 21 86 85 48 40 49 (D 114 36 (D 40 49 15 43 18 35 46 44 30 0) 40 uC 29 27 31 25 38 Table 1. C ontinued-C ivilian employment in occupations Total em ploym ent (In thousands) Occupation Percent change 199 5 1979 Other professional and technical workers.............................. Accountants and auditors ................................................ Architects ........................................................................ Assessors ........................................................................ Buyers, retail and wholesale trade..................................... Clergy.............................................................................. Cost estimators................................................................. Counselors........................................................................ Directors, religious education and activities....................... Employment interviewers ................................................ 4,389 830 75 29 251 1982 Low trend Moderate trend 1 9 7 9 -9 5 High trend Low trend (D (D (D 46 19 28 47 20 60 57 150 13 33 26 20 15 63 59 158 15 34 26 22 21 70 62 168 18 38 30 26 14 37 33 88 11 23 27 21 9 39 34 94 13 23 27 23 15 45 37 102 15 27 31 27 30 32 22 95 13 75 28 19 19 17 43 16 38 19 21 21 20 45 10 43 21 24 24 24 48 16 52 23 33 31 31 12 5 -1 4 -4 7 35 34 21 17 35 25 36 34 34 15 10 -1 2 -4 3 35 35 23 20 37 26 26 37 39 17 9 -2 0 -3 6 23 30 15 14 26 20 28 42 44 17 7 -1 4 -3 2 24 33 18 16 30 22 31 45 47 21 11 -1 2 -2 7 25 35 20 19 32 23 26 35 37 35 53 42 26 24 21 77 74 29 36 37 35 54 43 30 28 26 78 78 31 37 38 37 56 45 31 30 28 81 78 23 33 28 34 48 24 24 25 19 36 40 26 33 28 34 49 25 27 29 23 36 43 28 34 29 35 51 27 28 31 26 39 43 24,538 50 703 81 622 2,027 895 1,132 2,362 27 26 47 55 46 13 19 9 47 30 30 49 57 48 16 21 11 52 33 33 51 59 50 18 24 14 56 24 34 27 18 29 13 14 13 42 26 38 29 19 30 16 16 16 47 29 40 30 21 32 18 18 18 50 101 95 63 641 137 30 78 125 109 55 116 33 329 3,113 145 98 65 485 228 257 47 42 56 42 51 2 52 40 31 4 27 -7 8 26 77 17 (1) -1 9 -1 2 -2 4 47 41 59 45 53 3 54 44 32 6 30 -5 10 28 79 19 (1) -1 2 -5 -1 8 51 45 62 47 55 6 57 45 34 8 33 -3 12 31 86 22 (1) -1 0 -3 -1 6 49 41 29 32 42 6 53 35 22 10 23 0 7 27 60 16 40 -1 9 -1 2 -2 4 49 40 31 35 44 8 54 39 23 12 26 2 9 30 62 18 41 -1 2 -5 -1 8 53 44 34 37 46 11 57 40 25 14 29 5 12 33 69 21 44 -1 0 -3 -1 6 Foresters and conservationists ......................................... Law clerks....................................................................... Lawyers .......................................................................... Legal assistants .............................................................. Librarians ....................................................................... Personnel and labor relations specialists ......................... Purchasing agents and buyers ......................................... Group recreation workers ................................................ 29 35 393 34 147 187 178 122 31 40 465 45 151 203 177 122 35 55 618 85 167 249 225 148 34 56 624 88 170 250 225 150 Social workers ................................................................. Caseworkers ................................................................. Community organization workers.................................. Special agents, insurance ................................................ Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents ................ Tax preparers................................................................... Underwriters ................................................................... 328 275 53 23 48 28 73 345 292 52 31 47 32 76 409 348 61 44 54 45 90 416 353 63 44 52 46 92 428 364 65 45 54 49 93 25 26 15 90 13 60 24 Managers, officials, and proprietors......................................... Auto parts department managers ......................................... Auto service department managers....................................... Construction inspectors, public administration ..................... Health and regulatory inspectors ......................................... Postmasters and mail superintendents ................................. Railroad conductors ............................................................ Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers..................................... Sales managers, retail trade ................................................ Assistant principals.............................................................. Principals ............................................................................ Store managers ................................................................... Wholesalers.......................................................................... 9,152 48 60 41 103 28 35 528 271 37 81 938 241 9,532 44 54 39 101 28 27 574 271 38 82 971 247 12,008 61 76 46 111 23 17 706 352 44 93 1,218 298 12,212 63 78 46 108 24 18 711 362 45 95 1,262 302 12,467 64 80 47 113 25 20 715 365 46 97 1,285 303 31 27 27 12 8 -2 0 -5 0 34 30 18 15 30 23 Salesworkers .............................................................. ........... Real estate agents and brokers ............................................ Real estate brokers .......................................................... Sales agents, sales representatives, real estate ................ Real estate appraisers .......................................................... Sales agents and brokers, insurance..................................... Sales representatives, nontechnical....................................... Sales representatives, technical ............................................ Salesclerks .......................................................................... Security salesworkers .......................................................... Travel agents....................................................................... 6,780 332 39 293 31 316 573 1,329 2,867 60 50 6.967 337 42 296 32 361 583 1,320 2,916 78 62 8,535 449 53 396 47 447 724 1,652 3,472 106 86 8,771 450 53 396 47 452 743 1,707 3,601 107 88 8,911 453 53 400 48 458 749 1,730 3,670 109 88 Clerical workers....................................................................... Adjustment clerks................................................................ Bank tellers.......................................................................... New accounts tellers ....................................................... Tellers.............................................................................. Bookkeepers and accounting clerks ..................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................ Bookkeepers-, hand .......................................................... Cashiers............................................................................... 18,497 38 466 51 415 1,717 722 996 1,518 19,049 36 539 67 471 1,713 756 957 1,570 23,533 48 686 79 607 1,943 861 1,081 2,235 23,998 49 693 80 '6-43 1,985 876 1,109 2,314 Claims adjusters................................................................... Claims clerks........................................................................ Claims examiners, insurance................................................ Clerical supervisors.............................................................. Collectors, bill and account................................................... Court clerks.......................................................................... Credit clerks, banking and insurance..................................... Customer service representatives......................................... Desk clerks, except bowling flo o r......................................... Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance.............................. Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o rk ..................................... Eligibility workers, welfare ................................................... File clerks ............................................................................ General clerks, office............................................................ Insurance clerks, medical..................................................... Library assistants ................................................................. Loan closers ....................................................................... Mail carriers and postal clerks.............................................. Postal mail carriers ......................................................... Postal service clerks ....................................................... 67 66 39 434 88 28 50 86 82 51 87 34 293 2,377 78 80 66 66 47 467 94 27 50 89 88 48 90 32 295 2,348 86 81 45 541 234 307 99 94 61 618 133 29 76 120 107 52 111 32 316 2,990 137 94 63 439 206 233 98 93 62 628 135 29 76 124 107 53 113 32 321 3,044 139 96 64 474 223 252 37 29 44 43 14 31 8 48 12 9 55 High trend 25 38 38 9 26 3 41 7 3 51 94 140 36 59 26 40 40 11 30 5 45 10 5 52 M oderate trend 37 48 61 7 34 5,850 1.200 118 31 331 332 134 163 45 86 539 234 306 Low trend 33 44 57 4 32 5,778 1,181 116 30 321 327 131 159 44 85 (D 1 9 8 2 -9 5 High trend 32 42 55 3 28 4,636 856 84 28 256 317 92 148 43 57 (D M oderate trend 5,999 1,229 121 32 336 344 137 167 46 87 36 59 638 91 174 257 232 154 39 13 22 44 42 16 24 45 27 28 18 92 . 8 65 26 T a b l© 1 . C © B ita n u © d — C i v i li a n © m p io y m e n fl in o c c u p a t io n s Total em p lo ym en t (in thousands) P ercent change 1995 Occupation 1979 1982 Low trend M oderate trend 1979-95 High trend Low trend M oderate trend 1982-95 High trend Low trend M oderate trend High trend Mail clerks ................................................... ....................... Messengers, except bank..................................................... Meter readers, utilities.......................................................... Office machine operators ..................................................... Bookkeeping, billing machine operators ....................... Proof machine operators .............................................. Computer operating pe^onnel .......................................... Computer operators ..................................................... Data entry operators..................................................... Peripheral EDP equipment operators ............................ Duplicating machine operators.......................................... 88 42 29 893 174 46 548 190 319 40 31 100 47 31 936 172 47 580 211 320 49 38 132 60 37 1,179 218 59 727 366 282 79 44 131 61 38 1,196 223 59 737 371 286 80 45 135 63 38 1,220 227 60 752 378 292 82 46 51 42 30 32 25 28 33 93 -1 2 99 41 50 45 31 34 28 29 34 95 -1 0 102 43 54 48 33 37 31 31 37 99 -8 106 46 33 28 22 26 26 24 25 74 -1 2 61 16 31 31 24 28 29 25 27 76 -11 63 17 35 34 26 30 32 27 30 79 -9 66 19 Order clerks ........................................................................ Payroll and timekeeping clerks ............................................ Personnel clerks................................................................... Policy change clerks ............................................................ Procurement clerks............................................................... Production clerks ................................................................. Raters ................................................................................. Receptionists........................................................................ 258 175 98 25 49 212 53 362 265 202 103 28 47 201 53 387 329 265 132 30 60 260 68 565 337 269 131 31 60 262 69 576 342 277 135 31 62 268 70 594 28 51 35 18 23 23 28 56 31 54 34 20 22 24 30 59 33 58 38 22 27 27 32 64 24 31 29 8 27 29 29 46 27 34 28 10 26 30 31 49 29 37 32 12 31 33 33 54 Reservation agents and transportation ticket clerks .............. Reservation agents .......................................................... Ticket agents ................................................................... Secretaries and stenographers.............................................. Secretaries........................................................................ Stenographers ................................................................. Typists................................................................................. Shipping and receiving clerks .............................................. Shipping packers ................................................................. Statement clerks................................................................... 112 55 52 2,624 2,342 283 980 380 356 32 108 53 49 2,711 2,441 270 990 365 340 34 108 54 48 3,355 3,108 247 1,136 420 394 44 110 55 49 3,410 3,161 250 1,145 431 403 44 112 56 50 3,498 3,243 256 1,175 439 410 45 -4 -2 -7 28 33 -1 3 16 11 11 39 -2 0 -5 30 35 -1 2 17 13 13 40 -1 -3 33 38 -1 0 20 16 15 42 0 2 -3 24 27 -8 15 15 16 30 2 4 -1 26 29 -7 16 18 19 32 4 5 1 29 33 -5 19 20 21 34 Statistical clerks................................................................... Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .............................. Survey workers ................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists ..................................... Teachers' aides ................................................................... Telephone operators ............................................................ Switchboard operators ..................................................... Central office operators..................................................... Directory assistance operators.......................................... Town clerks.......................................................................... 83 831 42 217 442 319 175 107 37 28 98 831 53 107 463 318 172 109 38 26 112 961 78 279 579 337 211 84 42 29 114 987 78 285 593 343 213 87 43 29 116 1,005 79 292 606 349 218 87 43 30 36 16 86 29 31 5 20 -21 13 3 37 19 87 32 34 8 22 -1 9 17 5 41 21 89 35 37 9 24 -1 8 17 7 15 16 46 35 25 6 23 -2 3 11 10 16 19 46 38 28 8 24 -2 0 15 12 18 21 48 41 31 10 27 -2 0 16 14 Craft and related workers.......................................................... Construction craftworkers..................................................... Insulation workers............................................................ Bricklayers........................................................................ Carpenters........................................................................ Cement masons ............................................................... Dry wall applicators.......................................................... Electricians ...................................................................... Floor covering installers ................................................... Carpet cutters, carpet layers.......................................... Floor layers................................................................... 12,359 3,163 43 150 1,008 107 53 556 80 54 26 11,591 2,895 47 111 863 87 53 542 79 53 26 14,476 3,725 66 148 1,095 122 73 704 100 66 33 14,769 3,777 67 150 1,110 125 74 715 101 67 34 15,099 3,841 68 153 1,128 127 75 730 103 68 35 17 18 53 -1 9 14 36 27 25 23 30 20 19 56 0 10 17 39 29 27 25 32 22 21 59 2 12 19 41 31 29 26 35 25 29 41 34 27 41 36 30 26 25 28 27 30 44 36 29 44 39 32 29 28 30 30 33 46 38 31 46 41 35 30 29 33 Glaziers ............................................................................ Ironworkers ..................................................................... Reinforcing-iron workers .............................................. Structural steel workers................................................. Painters, construction and maintenance............................ Plumbers and pipefitters................................................... Roofers............................................................................. 37 105 34 71 369 398 111 41 93 33 61 362 388 102 53 126 44 83 443 512 128 55 130 45 85 444 518 129 56 133 46 87 449 528 131 44 20 29 16 20 29 15 48 23 32 19 21 30 16 51 26 35 22 22 33 18 31 35 33 36 22 32 25 35 39 36 40 23 34 27 37 42 39 44 24 36 28 Mechanics, repairers, and installers ..................................... Air conditioning, refrigeration, and heating mechanics . . . . Aircraft mechanics............................................................ Gas and electric appliance repairers................................... Automotive body repairers................................................. Automotive mechanics ..................................................... Coin machine servicers and repairers................................ Central office repairers ..................................................... Computer service technicians............................................ Diesel mechanics............................................................... Cable splicers................................................................... Line installers, repairers ................................................... 4,039 175 107 61 159 871 27 49 5,004 220 132 71 191 1,134 38 47 106 216 59 154 5,107 223 128 72 196 1,168 39 49 108 222 60 157 5,223 228 131 74 201 1,195 40 49 108 226 61 159 24 25 23 17 20 30 43 -4 26 27 19 20 23 34 47 -1 29 30 22 23 26 37 52 0 175 47 113 3,936 168 108 62 155 844 31 50 55 173 48 127 (D 0) 0) 30 30 41 27 31 22 14 23 34 24 -6 93 25 24 21 30 33 19 17 26 38 28 -2 97 28 25 23 33 36 21 20 30 42 32 -2 98 31 27 25 Engineering equipment mechanics..................................... Farm equipment mechanics.............................................. Instrument repairers.......................................................... Industrial machinery repairers .......................................... Maintenance repairers, general utility................................. Marine mechanics and repairers........................................ Millwrights........................................................................ Office machine repairers................................................... 77 25 40 366 733 26 108 53 83 26 41 330 694 26 91 56 93 27 50 416 870 36 118 94 94 27 51 425 887 36 121 95 96 28 53 438 908 36 124 96 21 8 25 14 19 36 10 78 22 10 27 16 21 36 12 82 24 10 31 20 24 36 15 83 12 4 22 26 25 35 30 68 13 5 24 29 28 35 33 72 15 6 27 33 31 36 36 73 (D 38 24 26 37 27 28 39 1 Table 1. C o n tinued— C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations P ercent change Total em p lo ym en t (in thousands) O ccupation 1 9 7 9 -9 5 199 5 197 9 198 2 Low trend Moderate trend High trend Low trend M oderate trend 1 9 8 2 -9 5 High trend Low trend M oderate trend High trend Radio and television service technicians............................ Installers, repairers, section maintainers ......................... Station installers .............................................................. 71 73 58 80 75 59 101 97 69 102 100 72 105 100 72 42 33 20 45 37 24 48 38 25 25 28 18 27 32 21 30 33 22 Metalworking craftworkers, except mechanics....................... Boilermakers ................................................................... Machinists....................................................................... Machine tool setters, metalworking.................................. Molders, m etal................................................................. Sheet-metal workers and tinsmiths .................................. Tool and die makers ....................................................... 941 45 239 65 34 213 176 818 40 220 55 25 188 152 995 42 271 67 29 248 179 1,019 43 278 68 29 252 184 1,051 44 287 70 30 260 190 6 -6 13 2 -1 4 16 2 8 -5 16 4 -1 2 18 5 12 -2 20 7 -9 22 8 22 6 23 22 13 32 18 25 8 26 25 16 34 21 29 11 30 28 20 38 25 Printing trades craftworkers ................................................ Bookbinders..................................................................... Typesetters and compositors............................................ Lithographers and photoengravers ................................... Letter press operators ..................................................... Offset lithographic press operators .................................. Press operators and plate printers..................................... 382 29 103 66 33 86 37 393 30 104 67 34 88 42 429 34 99 83 34 107 44 447 36 97 87 36 113 45 457 37 99 89 37 115 47 12 16 -9 26 4 24 19 17 22 -6 33 9 30 23 20 24 -4 35 11 33 27 9 14 -1 0 23 1 22 5 14 20 -7 29 6 28 8 16 23 -5 32 8 31 12 Other craft and related workers ............................................ Bakers ............................................................................ Supervisors of blue-collar workers .................................. Cabinetmakers ................................................................ Crane, derrick, and hoist operators.................................. Dental lab technicians....................................................... Opticians, dispensing and optical mechanics..................... Furniture upholsterers ..................................................... Heavy equipment operators.............................................. Inspectors....................................................................... 3,833 64 1,295 79 127 48 35 30 443 468 3,549 65 1,200 78 105 51 31 37 384 410 4,324 73 1,482 95 128 63 38 40 480 520 4,419 76 1,519 96 132 64 39 40 490 529 4,527 78 1,553 99 134 65 40 42 500 543 13 15 15 20 1 31 9 33 8 11 15 19 17 22 4 32 12 34 11 13 18 22 20 25 6 35 15 39 13 16 22 12 24 22 22 25 22 7 25 27 24 17 27 24 25 26 25 8 28 29 28 19 30 27 27 28 29 12 30 32 Jewelers .......................................................................... Locomotive engineers....................................................... Merchandise displayers and window trimmers.................. Stationary engineers......................................................... Alteration tailors .............................................................. Testers ............................................................................ Sewage plant operators ................................................... Water treatment plant operators....................................... 26 49 27 61 55 119 40 30 30 38 27 58 54 116 38 28 33 37 37 60 72 151 41 30 34 39 38 61 75 152 42 31 35 42 39 62 157 43 32 26 -2 6 38 -2 31 27 2 2 29 -21 43 -1 36 28 4 4 32 -1 5 45 2 40 31 7 7 11 -4 39 3 32 30 9 9 13 3 43 4 37 31 10 10 17 10 46 7 41 35 13 13 Operatives .............................................................................. Assembler occupations ....................................................... Aircraft structure assemblers............................................ Assemblers ..................................................................... Electrical machinery equipment assemblers....................... Electrical and electronic assemblers.................................. Instrument assemblers..................................................... Machine assemblers.......................................................... Wirers, electronic ............................................................ 14,039 1,459 33 361 99 281 29 202 38 12,995 1,313 33 307 99 286 29 170 37 15,044 1,625 28 363 131 365 43 210 50 15,419 1,646 26 379 133 362 43 214 50 15,809 1,702 26 398 137 371 44 222 52 7 11 -1 4 1 32 30 48 4 33 10 13 -1 9 5 34 29 49 6 31 13 17 -2 0 10 38 32 52 10 35 16 24 -1 5 18 33 28 45 23 36 19 25 -21 23 34 27 46 25 34 22 30 -21 30 38 30 49 30 39 Bindery workers, assembly................................................... Laundry operators, small establishment................................ Pressers, hand ..................................................................... Pressers, machine .............................................................. Pressers, machine laundry ................................................... Washers, machine and starchers......................................... Meatcutters and butchers..................................................... Metalworking operatives....................................................... Electroplators................................................................... 37 38 30 54 70 54 59 1,726 36 38 38 27 50 64 58 57 1,492 32 39 44 30 51 68 78 62 1,767 34 41 44 31 52 69 79 63 1,813 35 42 45 31 54 74 82 64 1,874 36 8 17 2 -6 -3 45 5 2 -4 13 17 4 -4 -1 47 6 5 -1 15 19 3 0 5 52 8 9 2 5 16 13 2 5 35 9 18 7 10 17 14 4 7 37 10 21 11 12 18 14 8 14 42 12 26 13 Machine tool operators..................................................... Drill press and boring machine operators ..................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal ......... Lathe machine operators, metal .................................. Milling and planing machine operators ......................... Machine too! operators, combination ............................ Machine tool operators, numerical control..................... Machine tool operators, tool room ................................ Punch press operators, m etal....................................... Power brake and bending machine operators, metal . , . Shear and slitter operators, metal ................................ Welders and flamecutters ................................................ 1,070 136 138 159 68 193 73 41 181 49 32 548 914 115 118 137 61 169 66 34 147 42 27 490 1,088 137 126 155' 68 217 94 43 167 51 32 579 1,114 139 129 159 69 220 95 44 173 53 33 595 1,153 144 133 164 71 229 99 45 180 55 34 615 2 1 -9 -2 -1 13 28 6 -8 4 -2 6 4 3 -7 0 1 14 30 8 -5 8 2 8 8 6 -4 3 4 19 35 11 -1 12 6 12 19 19 7 14 12 29 42 25 14 22 18 18 22 21 10 16 13 31 44 27 18 27 23 21 26 25 13 20 17 36 49 31 22 32 27 26 Roustabouts ........................................................................ Baggers .............................................................................. Production packagers .......................................................... Painters, automotive ............................................................ Painters, production ......................................................... Sawyers ............................................................................ Sewers and stitchers............................................................ Sewing machine operatives, regular equipment, garment Sewing machine operatives, special equipment, garment Sewing machine operatives, regular equipment, nongarment ................................................................. Sewing machine operatives, special equipment, nongarment ................................................... 67 224 560 41 118 89 902 594 88 94 242 548 36 101 75 804 533 78 78 219 616 51 115 91 869 561 84 80 229 637 53 118 93 882 567 85 80 234 654 55 122 96 873 556 83 17 -2 10 24 -3 2 -4 -5 -4 20 2 14 28 0 4 19 4 17 32 3 8 -3 -6 -5 -1 6 -9 12 41 14 21 8 5 8 -1 4 -5 16 46 17 24 10 7 9 -1 5 -4 19 51 21 28 9 4 7 145 128 152 155 158 4 7 8 19 22 24 47 42 48 50 51 4 7 9 16 19 21 39 77 -2 -4 -3 T a b le 1 . C o n t i n u e J — C i v i li a n e m p l o y m e n t in o c c u p a t io n s Total e m ploym ent (in thousands) Occupation P ercent change 1995 1979 1982 Textile operatives ................................................................ Spinners, frame .............................................................. Weavers .......................................................................... Transport equipment operatives............................................ Ambulance drivers and ambulance attendants .................. Busdrivers....................................................................... Busdrivers, local and intercity....................................... Busdrivers, school ....................................................... 368 31 36 3,694 26 443 216 226 312 26 30 3,551 28 473 229 244 345 25 31 4,181 34 537 249 288 352 25' 31 4,287 35 551 257 295 Chauffeurs....................................................................... Forklift and tow motor operatives ..................................... Parking attendants............................................................ Railroad brake operators................................................... Sailors and deckhands ..................................................... Taxi drivers ..................................................................... Truckdriving occupations ................................................ Delivery and route workers............................................ Truckdrivers ................................................................ 42 421 36 78 33 72 2,506 813 1,693 48 376 37 60 32 64 2,402 797 1,604 61 433 37 50 33 52 2,909 924 1,985 All other operatives.............................................................. Dressmakers, except factory ............................................ Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers.............................. Fuel pump attendants and lubricators .............................. Stationary boiler firers ..................................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, meat and dairy products ..................................................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food products Miscellaneous machine operatives, lumber and furniture . . Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper and allied products ..................................................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied products ..................................................................... Chemical operators-A .................................................. Chemical operators-B .................................................. 4,145 54 130 406 46 3,805 61 107 388 44 45 73 47 42 71 39 Low trend Moderate trend 1979-95 High trend 1982-95 Low trend M oderate trend High trend Low trend 359 25 31 4,387 36 572 271 301 -6 -21 -1 4 13 29 21 15 27 -5 -2 0 -1 3 16 32 24 19 30 -3 -1 8 -1 2 19 38 29 25 33 11 -5 3 18 23 13 9 18 13 -4 4 21 26 17 12 21 15 -2 6 24 32 21 18 23 63 445 38 54 34 52 2,980 951 2,029 65 458 40 58 35 53 3,035 967 2,068 44 3 3 -3 5 0 -2 8 16 14 17 48 6 6 -31 3 -2 8 19 17 20 53 9 10 -2 6 5 -2 6 21 19 22 27 15 1 -1 6 3. -2 0 21 16 24 30 18 4 -1 0 7 -1 9 24 19 26 34 22 8 -4 8 -1 7 26 21 29 4,413 66 134 430 45 4,544 66 137 451 45 4,666 66 142 462 47 6 23 3 6 -2 10 22 6 11 -1 13 23 9 14 2 16 8 26 11 1 19 8 29 16 2 23 9 33 19 6 39 75 49 40 78 50 41 80 52 -1 4 3 4 -11 7 6 -9 9 10 -9 6 25 -6 10 28 -3 13 32 M oderate trend High trend 99 92 97 100 105 -2 1 6 5 9 14 153 55 27 146 54 26 172 64 31 178 66 31 183 63 32 13 16 14 16 19 17 20 22 21 18 19 18 22 23 22 25 26 25 213 28 190 26 251 35 267 37 277 39 18 25 25 34 30 39 32 36 40 46 45 51 101 50 86 90 40 102 229 50 25 93 41 69 83 39 86 218 48 26 131 49 82 99 42 103 231 50 30 140 51 85 102 44 108 238 50 31 144 53 88 104 45 112 242 51 32 29 -3 -5 11 6 1 1 0 16 38 2 -1 13 10 5 4 1 23 42 6 2 16 12 10 6 3 25 41 20 18 20 7 19 6 4 14 50 25 22 23 11 25 9 6 20 55 31 26 26 13 30 11 8 22 Mixing operatives ............................................................ Oilers .............................................................................. Photographic process workers......................................... Rotary drill operators....................................................... Rotary drill operator helpers ............................................ Shoemaking machine operators ....................................... Surveyor helpers.............................................................. Tire changers................................................................... Coil winders..................................................................... 43 43 70 22 31 60 50 60 28 41 36 67 28 33 52 40 60 27 43 44 77 27 29 34 61 83 32 45 45 78 28 29 36 63 86 32 46 46 80 28 30 34 65 88 33 2 3 9 24 -6 -4 3 22 39 13 6 5 11 26 -4 -4 0 26 45 13 8 8 14 27 -3 -4 3 30 48 18 5 21 15 -2 -1 4 -3 3 54 39 19 9 24 17 -1 -1 2 -3 0 59 45 19 12 27 20 0 -11 -3 4 64 48 24 Service workers........................................................................ Building custodians.............................................................. Food service workers............................................................ Bakers, bread and pastry ................................................ Bartenders........................................................................ Butchers and meatcutters ................................................ Cooks and chefs .............................................................. Cooks, institutional....................................................... Cooks, restaurant......................................................... Cooks, short order and specialty fast foods.................. 15,660 2,796 5,906 35 364 184 1,161 406 330 424 16,241 2,828 6,204 36 384 191 1,211 423 351 437 20,416 3,554* 8,113 46 500 173 1,591 527 494 570 20,706 3,606 8,221 46 505 179 1,613 536 500 578 21,113 3,682 8,322 47 511 182 1,636 549 505 582 30 27 37 31 37 -6 37 30 50 34 32 29 39 32 39 -3 39 32 51 36 35 32 41 33 40 -1 41 35 53 37 26 26 31 27 30 -9 31 25 41 31 27 28 33 28 32 -6 33 27 42 32 30 30 34 30 33 -5 35 30 44 33 Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants................................................................... Flosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop.............. Kitchen helpers................................................................. Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers .............................. Waiters and waitresses..................................................... Waiters assistants............................................................ All other food service workers ......................................... 757 110 822 77 1,599 283 515 809 113 850 84 1,665 302 559 1 092 152 1,139 111 2,199 384 726 1 106 154 1,155 112 2,227 388 734 1 113 155 1,174 114 2,249 394 748 44 38 39 43 38 36 41 46 40 41 45 39 37 43 47 41 43 47 41 39 45 35 34 34 32 32 27 30 36 36 34 34 29 31 37 38 36 35 30 34 Selected health service workers............................................ Dental assistants............................................................ Licensed practical nurses .................. ........................... 1,980 129 524 2,240 153 594 3,038 3,066 218 815 3,166 229 841 53 65 54 55 69 55 60 77 60 36 39 36 37 42 37 41 49 41 Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and miscellaneous plastics................................................... Extruder operators, rubber or plastics ......................... Compression and injection mold machine operators, plastics..................................................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, stone, clay, and glass Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary metals........... Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec. . . Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing . . . . Miscellaneous operatives, nec, durable goods.................. Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable goods ........... Poultry dressers, eviscerators....................................... Press assistants and feeders ....................................... 213 40 Tab le 1. C on tin u ed — C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations P ercent change Total e m ploym ent (in thousands) Occupation 197 9 198 2 Medical assistants............................................................ Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants............................ Pharmacy helpers ............................................................ Psychiatric aides.............................................................. 88 1,087 29 115 100 1,218 33 132 Selected personal service workers ....................................... Barbers ............................................................................ Bellhops, bag porters, and doorkeepers............................ Child-care attendants ..................................................... Child-care workers..................................................... Cosmetologists/women’s hairstylists ................................ 1,518 110 26 39 396 483 1,632 115 26 47 414 491 54 54 53 101 72 35 40 93 Flight attendants .............................................................. Game and ride operators and concession workers ........... Housekeepers, hotel and motel......................................... Recreation facility attendants ............................................ Reducing instructors ....................................................... Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers....................... Welfare service aides ....................................................... Correction officials and jailers ......................................... Crossing or bridge tenders .............................................. Crossing guards, school................................................... Firefighters........................................................................ Fire officers ..................................................................... Guards and doorkeepers................................................... Lifeguards ........................................................................ (D (D 64 24 41 92 1,752 112 28 40 213 49 645 (D 1,707 111 27 38 201 46 635 34 Low trend 809 146 1,628 45 1,930 126 28 56 495 577 68 62 130 87 44 38 116 2,121 145 29 42 214 51 925 43 M oderate trend 1 9 8 2 -9 5 1 9 7 9 -9 5 199 5 High trend Low trend M oderate trend High trend Low trend M oderate trend High trend 148 1,642 46 185 154 1,690 47 192 65 50 56 60 67 51 57 60 74 55 62 66 45 34 38 40 47 35 38 41 53 39 43 46 1,961 127 29 57 499 589 2,010 129 29 58 504 604 27 14 7 43 25 19 29 15 9 45 26 22 32 17 11 48 27 25 18 9 9 20 19 17 20 10 10 21 20 20 23 12 13 24 22 23 69 63 130 88 46 39 119 70 66 133 92 51 41 122 27 17 29 21 29 -4 26 29 19 29 23 34 -2 28 30 24 32 27 46 4 32 2,146 147 29 42 217 52 935 44 2,194 150 30 43 223 53 950 46 26 33 8 12 8 12 47 31 29 36 11 14 11 14 50 36 26 27 29 (D (D (D (D (D (D 35 88 -6 27 37 96 -4 29 42 114 1 33 21 30 3 3 0 3 44 22 31 5 5 2 5 45 25 35 8 7 4 7 47 (D (D (D 24 31 6 10 7 10 46 29 608 71 110 400 864 285 1 12 4 0 -2 5 35 2 9 5 2 -2 2 37 5 14 8 4 -21 39 7 17 10 6 -2 0 31 8 14 10 7 -1 7 33 11 19 14 10 -1 6 36 Police and detectives, public service ................................ Police detectives .......................................................... Police officers .............................................................. Police patrolmen/women .............................................. Private household workers ................................................... Supervisors, nonworking, service......................................... 578 62 102 383 1,088 205 549 59 97 363 1,023 210 586 69 106 383 275 592 68 107 390 850 279 Laborers, except fa rm .............................................................. Animal caretakers................................................................. Cannery workers................................................................... Cleaners, vehicle ................................................................. Conveyor operators and tenders............................................ Garbage collectors .............................................................. Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ....................... Helpers, trades ................................................................... Highway maintenance workers.............................................. Line service attendants ....................................................... Pipelayers............................................................................ Riggers ............................................................................... Stock handlers................ ..................................................... Order fillers ..................................................................... Stock clerks, sales flo o r ................................................... Fallers and buckers.............................................................. 6,257 91 61 119 51 115 646 1,023 173 29 47 30 938 356 581 45 5,861 105 56 100 46 110 661 608 165 30 42 27 962 355 608 39 6,884 119 67 133 53 127 732 777 172 41 56 33 1,111 420 691 35 7,052 120 69 138 54 129 744 798 175 41 57 33 1,150 430 721 35 7,215 123 71 143 56 133 759 819 179 42 58 34 1,171 435 736 36 10 31 10 11 3 11 13 -2 4 0 39 18 11 18 18 19 -2 3 13 33 12 16 6 12 15 -2 2 1 41 21 12 23 21 24 -2 2 15 35 16 20 8 16 17 -2 0 4 42 23 15 25 22 27 -2 0 17 14 20 32 14 15 11 28 4 36 32 23 15 18 14 -1 0 20 15 23 38 18 17 13 31 6 38 35 24 20 21 19 -9 23 17 27 43 21 20 15 35 9 39 37 27 22 23 21 -7 Farmers and farmworkers ....................................................... Farmers and farm managers................................................ Farm owners and tenants ................................................ Farm managers................................................................. Farm supervisors and laborers ............................................ Farm supervisors.............................................................. Farm laborers................................................................... 2,704 1,447 1,405 42 1,257 33 1,224 2,691 1,448 1,407 40 1,243 33 1,211 2,404 1,370 1,319 51 1,034 31 1,003 2,407 1,357 1,304 52 1,050 31 1,019 2,424 1,359 1,305 53 1,065 32 1,033 -11 -5 -6 21 -1 8 -7 -1 8 -11 -6 -7 24 -1 6 -5 -1 7 -1 0 -6 -7 26 -1 5 -3 -1 6 -11 -5 -6 27 -1 7 -6 -1 7 -11 -6 -7 30 -1 6 -4 -1 6 -1 0 -6 -7 32 -1 4 -2 -1 5 1Data not available. The growth of occupations concentrated in the construc tion and manufacturing industries, which was severely af fected by jthe 1980-82 recession, includes recovery from the trough of that period. As a result, the data on growth patterns of occupations must be interpreted very carefully. For this reason, the data on growth presented in table 1 include employment data for 1979 (prerecessionary) and 1979-95 growth rates.2 nomic and industry alternatives presented elsewhere in this issue of the Review. Although the assumptions and analyses that differentiate these scenarios result in different rates of growth for most occupations, the basic changes in the oc cupational composition from 1982 to 1995 are similar in all versions. Thus, although this article focuses on the “ mod erate” scenario, the discussion would be very similar if any of the other scenarios were highlighted. However, the major differences in trends between the alternate scenarios are reported in the final section of this article. The alternative projections are also shown in table 1 for all detailed oc cupations. Alternative sets of projections The Bureau has developed three alternative sets of oc cupational employment projections that are tied to the eco 41 maintain their relative share of total employment, a share which has not changed significantly over the past two de cades. On the other hand, operatives and laborers should continue their long-term decline as a proportion of total employment, as their growth is impacted by the effects of technological change and the relatively faster growth of the service sector. Private household workers are expected to continue to decline numerically as well as in proportion to total employment. Major changes in long-term trends in the broad occupa tional structure, however, are expected in clerical and in farming occupations. Although the number of clerical work ers is expected to continue to increase, the effects of office automation should result in average growth rather than in the faster than average growth which has occurred over the past two decades. Farming occupations which have declined significantly throughout the century are expected to continue to decrease but somewhat more slowly than in the past. However, farming occupations should drop significantly as a proportion of total employment between 1982 and 1995. Broad occupational trends tend to mask much of the dy namic changes in occupational structures that have occurred and are expected to occur over the projections period. Within each broad occupational group, detailed occupational trends will be affected by technological changes and by alterations in the basic structure of industrial growth. The latter changes are extremely important because occupational growth is very closely related to changes in employment of industries in which they are concentrated. The following sections of this article discuss the growth of individual occupations and highlight many of the basic changes in occupational em ployment that are anticipated over the period. Differences in the occupational projections among the three alternatives should not be considered as the potential range within which the projections are likely to fall because the range for most occupations is much wider than that shown. The majority of occupations are sensitive to a wide variety of assumptions and economic factors and all of these could not be considered in the three scenarios. One should keep in mind that the development of pro jections is not a precise statistical process. Despite the use of sophisticated economic models and the use of data in those models that are carefully developed by statistical tech niques, the future cannot be precisely predicted. Too many factors can alter economic activity over the 1982-95 period to assure that the projections provide an exact picture of the future. This is very evident if one reviews previous em ployment projections developed by the Bureau or any other organization.3 The projections developed by the Bureau reflect very detailed analyses of the factors that are expected to affect occupational trends in addition to those factors built into the model. Thus, the occupational projections presented in this article reflect the analyses and judgments of Bureau staff who are involved in this development. Some of these judgments are fairly subjective, and therefore, open to ques tion. For example, in developing projected occupational staffing patterns for automobile manufacturing, judgments had to be made about the actual use of robots and other production processes in the industry during 1982-95. Clearly, at this stage of the development and use of robots in au tomobile manufacturing, such judgments are highly subjec tive. Despite these analytical problems in developing precise projections of the future, our experience has indicated that basic trends in occupational structure can be approximated through the types of analyses described. Growth trends have proved to be correct for most occupations in previous sets of projections. We are hopeful that our experience and im proved techniques and data bases will result in projections that present the general trends in employment by occupation during 1982-95. Detailed occupations The economy is expected to generate an additional 25.6 million jobs between 1982 and 1995. About one-half of this job growth is projected to occur in only 40 of the 1,700 occupations (see table 2) for which projections were de veloped. Several points should be kept in mind in reviewing these occupations which will account for the greatest number of additional jobs. In general, the occupations are numer ically large and all had more than 250,000 workers in 1982. Occupations that require extensive training are not found to any greater extent in table 2 than are those requiring little formal training. Only one-fourth of the occupations gen erally require a college degree. Several of the occupations on the list reflect recovery from very low 1982 employment levels caused by the reces sion. For example, helpers, trade; supervisors of blue-collar workers; and carpenters are on the list only because of the sharp drop in employment experienced from 1979 to 1982. Most of the employment growth reflects recovery to prerecessionary levels. A list of the fastest growing occupations from 1982 to Broad structural changes The impact of technological change, differences in in dustrial growth patterns, and other factors that have a sig nificant impact on occupations will result in changes in the broad occupational structure between 1982 and 1995. How ever, the direction of these changes will be very similar to changes that have occurred over the past several decades. Professional and technical workers will continue to increase faster than total employment and account for a greater share of total employment in 1995 than in 1982. Service workers, excluding private household workers, also will continue to grow faster than average. Managers, salesworkers, and craftworkers will continue to increase at about average rates and 42 T a b le 2. 1 9 8 2 -9 5 in expenditures for health services, occupations in this field have been among the fastest growing for many years. Even during 1979-82, when total employment was virtually un changed, employment in health occupations grew signifi cantly. Continued population growth and expansion of health care insurance coverage are primary reasons underlying the expected continued growth. In addition, the aged, requiring the most health care, are expected to increase their share of the U.S. population. While the population is expected to go up by only 14 percent between 1980 and 1995, those over 65 years of age will increase by 26 percent. The number of registered nurses is expected to grow by 49 percent between 1982 and 1995, an additional 642,000 jobs. Physicians are projected to increase by 34 percent, faster than the average for all occupations, and add 163,000 jobs. Nursing aides and orderlies should add 423,000 new jobs and licensed practical nurses, 220,000 jobs, both rep resenting faster than average growth. Overall, these four occupations are projected to account for almost 6 percent of the total employment growth over the period. Among the smaller and faster growing occupations, phys ical therapy technicians are projected to increase by 68 per cent, occupational therapists by 60 percent, physical therapists by 54 percent, and medical assistants by 47 percent. F o rty o c c u p a tio n s w ith la rg e s t jo b g ro w th , Change in total employment (in thousands) 779 744 719 696 685 642 562 Percent of total job growth 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 Percent change 511 425 423 386 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 37.4 26.5 34.8 29.3 Accountants and auditors ................ Automotive mechanics ..................... Supervisors of blue-collar workers . . Kitchen helpers................................ Guards and doorkeepers.................. Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants..................... Managers, store .............................. Carpenters....................................... Electrical and electronic technicians Licensed practical nurses ................ 344 324 319 305 300 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 40.2 38.3 26.6 35.9 47.3 297 292 247 222 220 1.2 1.1 1.0 .9 .9 36.7 30.1 28.6 60.7 37.1 Computer systems analysts.............. Electrical engineers ......................... Computer programmers .................. Maintenance repairers, general utility Helpers, trades................................ Receptionists ................................... Electricians....................................... Physicians ....................................... Clerical supervisors ......................... Computer operators......................... Sales representatives, nontechnical . . 217 209 205 193 190 189 173 163 162 160 160 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .7 .7 .7 .6 .6 .6 85.3 65.3 76.9 27.8 31.2 48.8 31.8 34.0 34.6 75.8 27.4 Lawyers............................................ Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ................................... Typists ............................................ Delivery and route workers .............. Bookkeepers, hand ......................... Cooks, restaurants............................ Bank tellers ..................................... , Cooks, short order, specialty and fast food ............................................ 159 .6 34.3 156 155 153 152 149 142 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 18.8 15.7 19.2 15.9 42.3 30.0 141 .6 32.2 Occupation Building custodians ......................... Cashiers .......................................... Secretaries....................................... General clerks, office ....................... Salesclerks....................................... Nurses, registered............................ Waiters and waitresses..................... Teachers, kindergarten and elementary ................................... Truckdrivers..................................... Nursing aides and orderlies.............. Sales representatives, technical . . . . 27.5 47.4 29.5 29.6 23.5 48.9 33.8 Computer-related occupations. Computers are expected to continue to have more widespread use throughout the econ omy through the mid-1990’s. As a result, occupations that are directly related to computer development and use will be among the leaders in employment growth rates over the period. The number of systems analysts and computer pro grammers should expand at a very rapid rate through 1995. As more uses are found for computers in business and ev eryday life, software development will experience tremen dous growth. Most industry forecasts indicate that there will be more than 10 times as many computers in use during the next decade than exist today. This will translate into an increased demand for additional computer service technicians to main tain the equipment. Recently, the focus has been on the micro- and mini computers. Mainframe (large) computers have mostly been overlooked. In 1982, mainframe sales stood at $10 billion representing the largest segment of the computer machine market. Fifth-generation machines are expected to be intro duced in the early 1990’s, and sales are projected to grow significantly by 1995. Therefore, this means strong growth in the number of computer and peripheral equipment op erators needed by 1995. Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more. Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections. 1995 is shown in table 3. Although the list is dominated by occupations that are tied to continued growth of expanding industries and which have been among the strongest in the economy for the past decade, many reflect recovery from the recession. It is also important to note that these fast growing occupations generally are not found on the list of occupations that will add the most jobs over the period. Almost half of the 20 occupations in the list are either in the computer or health fields, which are among the fields with the strongest growth. Some occupations are expected to decline over the period. (See table 4.) In general, occupations on the list are con centrated in industries that are contracting, or severely af fected by technological change. For example, railroad conductors are concentrated in a declining industry, while data entry operators are affected by technological change. Education-related occupations. The growth of employment in many occupations in the education field is closely tied to the size of the school-age population. Although births de clined steadily during 1961-75, the number of children born each year has grown steadily since 1976 and is expected to Health-related, occupations. Health care will continue to be an expanding field of work during 1982-95. Reflecting growth 43 Table 3. mechanical engineers. More civil engineers will be needed to meet the demands of a rejuvenated construction industry. Petroleum engineers on the other hand should experience average growth as oil supplies stabilize and new drilling moderates. Chemists will be affected by a diminished growth of the chemical industry and geologists and geophysicists by a slowdown in oil and gas extraction. Therefore, both oc cupations are expected to grow only as fast as average. A fairly strong demand for biological scientists is expected due to the growth of the drug industry. Electrical and elec tronic technicians, mechanical engineering technicians, and civil engineering technicians should experience strong growth similar to their engineer counterparts. Drafters is one im portant occupation in this group to fall victim to new tech nology. As computer-assisted design equipment gains more widespread use, the growth of this occupation will be vir tually nil. T w en ty fastest grow ing occupations, 1 9 8 2 -9 5 Occupation Percent growth in em ploym ent Computer service technicians Legal assistants ............................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................ Computer programmers................................................... Computer operators ........................................................ Office machine repairers................................................... Physical therapy assistants.............................................. Electrical engineers.......................................................... Civil engineering technicians............................................ Peripheral EDP equipment operators................................. 96.8 94.3 85.3 76.9 75.8 71.7 67.8 65.3 63.9 63.5 Insurance clerks, medical................................................. Electrical and electronic technicians ................................ Occupational therapists ................................................... Surveyor helpers ............................................................ Credit clerks, banking and insurance................................. Physical therapists .......................................................... Employment interviewers ................................................. Mechanical engineers ..................................................... Mechanical engineering technicians ................................. Compression and injection mold machine operators, plastics........................................................................ 62.2 60.7 59.8 58.6 54.1 53.6 52.5 52.1 51.6 50.3 Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more. Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections. Office clerical workers. Most office clerical occupations are expected to grow more slowly during 1982-95 than in the 1970’s because of office automation. Nevertheless, signif icant growth is expected in some of these occupations. Re ceptionists should be among the fastest growing clerical occupations, with a projected increase of 49 percent. Be cause of the varied responsibilities and the need for human interaction, it is difficult to replace this occupation with a machine. Secretaries will increasingly use advanced office equipment in the future, thereby becoming more productive. This in turn will dampen demand for the occupation. Never theless, secretaries are projected to grow at a rate that is about average because of the growth of industries in which they are concentrated. continue until 1987. Because of this increase in births and the expected continued growth in the labor force partici pation of mothers of young children, employment of pre school teachers is expected to surge during 1982-95, increasing by more than 40 percent. Kindergarten and el ementary schoolteachers as well as teachers’ aides are an ticipated to grow substantially as growth in the youth population works its way through the educational system. The increase in the school-age population will not affect secondary schools until early in the 1990’s. Therefore, sec ondary schoolteachers are expected to decline in numbers until 1990 and then turn around. Overall, between 1982 and 1995, this occupation should experience only minimal growth. At the post-secondary level, vocational education teachers can be expected to grow at a strong pace. Growth of job training and retraining programs will be reflected in in creased demand for this occupation. However, college and university teachers are projected to decline during 1982-95 because of a drop in the college-age population and because of higher tuition. Tab le 4. Tw e n ty m ost rapidly declining occupations, 1 9 8 2 -9 5 Occupation Scientific and technical occupations. Many scientific and technical occupations are expected to grow rapidly over the period, benefiting from the growth of high-technology in dustries. However, some will be negatively affected by the products of high technology and others will grow more sluggishly than average because they are concentrated in slowly growing industries. Engineering occupations are expected to provide nearly 600,000 new jobs by 1995, as the occupation is expected to grow much faster than average. As manufacturing in dustries, primarily durable goods, rebound from the reces sion and place new technologies into their production systems, there will be heavy demands for electrical, industrial, and Percent decline in em p lo ym en t Railroad conductors ........................................................ Shoemaking machine operatives ..................................... Aircraft structure assemblers............................................ Central telephone office operators ................................... Taxi drivers...................................................................... Postal clerks .................................................................... Private household workers ............................................... Farm laborers ................................................................. College and university faculty .......................................... -3 2 .0 Roustabouts ..................................................................... Postmasters and mail superintendents ............................ Rotary drill operator helpers ............................................ Graduate assistants.......................................................... Data entry operators ................................................... Railroad brake operators ................................................. Fallers and buckers.......................................................... Stenographers ............................................................. Farm owners and tenants............................................... Typesetters and compositors............................................ Butchers and meatcutters................................................. -14.4 -13.8 -11.6 -11.2 -10.6 -9 8 -8 .7 -7 .4 -7 .3 -7 .3 -6 .3 -30.2 -21.0 -20.0 -18.9 -17.9 -16.9 -15.9 -15.0 N o te: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more. Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections. 44 Transportation occupations. As economic activity in creases, so does the demand for transporting goods. Tech nological change has not radically affected the trucking industry, therefore, a rising demand for its services brings about roughly proportional increases in the employment of truckdrivers. Truckdrivers are projected to show average growth but, because of its large size, add almost 424,000 jobs. Double trailers and larger trucks will dampen em ployment growth among long-haul truckdrivers as will com petition for long-haul business from railroad transportation. Ambulance drivers are expected to have average em ployment growth. Busdrivers and industrial truck operators should experience below average growth rates. Technolog ical change may have a greater impact on industrial truck operators, who move materials from one location to another within factories and warehouses. Industrial truck operators are projected to increase by 70,000, which largely reflects recovery from the decline in manufacturing employment during 1980-82. Most other office clerical occupations including typists will be growing more slowly than the average rate for all occupations. The expected increase in typing work will be in significant part taken care of by the increased use of word processing equipment. Stenographers is the one office oc cupation which has been declining and should continue to do so during the period. Mechanics and repairers. The increasing complexity of equipment used by industry and by consumers is expected to provide continued steady growth for mechanics and re pairers. Automotive mechanics are projected to grow faster than average— about 38 percent from 1982 to 1995— and because of the occupation’s large size it will add nearly 324,000 jobs. Refrigeration and air-conditioning mechanics are expected to add 55,000 jobs. Office machine servicers and cash register servicers should rise by 72 percent as offices and stores are automated. This occupation will be among the fastest growing during the period. Construction trades. Employment fluctuations caused by cyclical and seasonal factors characterize the construction industry. As a result, construction-related employment pro jections are difficult to develop accurately. Although em ployment among construction trades is projected to increase by more than 900,000 workers, much of this growth rep resents a recovery from the severe downturn of the early 1980’s. If allowance is made for this recession, the growth of the construction trade occupations may be seen as ap proximating that of the rest of the economy. Employment among the construction trades will also be affected by technological changes within the industry. Dry wall installers will benefit from the increased use of dry wall. Modular construction will slow the employment growth of carpenters. On the other hand, the increasing use of new types of electrical equipment will continue to aid the em ployment growth of electricians. Production occupations. The recovery of manufacturing from the recent recession and its projected employment increase by 1995 will provide many additional jobs for production workers performing precision tasks. Although growth rates will only approximate the economy as a whole, supervisors of blue-collar workers will gain 319,000 jobs; machinists, 58,000; press and plate printers, 35,000; tool and die mak ers, 32,000; and millwrights, 30,000. The majority of ma chinists, tool and die makers, and millwrights work in durable goods manufacturing which declined during 1980-82 and which is expected to recover and grow. Some of the lesser skilled production occupations (such as operatives) are threatened by the introduction of robots and other automated equipment. Robots can perform weld ing, machine loading and unloading, spray painting, and certain types of assembly work, but their introduction is currently hampered by factors such as the lack of visual capabilities and by their purchase, installation, and main tenance costs. If the robots’ capabilities can be improved and their associated costs can be reduced through mass production, we may see an occupational impact. Among the fabricating, assembly, and handworking oc cupations, the group of assembly occupations is anticipated to grow by 332,000, primarily in electrical and electronic components, machinery, and electrical equipment assem bly. Welders and flamecutters are expected to increase by 105,000; however, they are expected to decline in the au tomotive industry as more spot welding robots are used. The number of filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers should grow by about 3.0,000 jobs. Some machine operators and tenders will experience the impact of robots which can load materials into machinery. However, increases are expected in some operator jobs, including 52,000 combination machine tool operators and Food and beverage service occupations. The trend toward eating outside the home will result in continued employment growth among food and beverage preparation and service occupations. Sales in eating and drinking places nearly quadrupled between 1967 and 1981,4 This trend is expected to add 1.8 million jobs in eating and drinking places, an increase of 38 percent during 1982-95. Much of this growth, however, should be in fast food restaurants and therefore food preparation and service workers in these establishments would increase faster than other food service occupations. They are expected to increase by 37 percent and add 297,000 jobs. Other food service occupations will also grow faster than average including waiters and waitresses, up 562,000; cooks, 402,000; and bartenders, 121,000. These four oc cupations will account for more than 5 percent of the total growth in jobs over the period. 45 39.000 power press operators. Sewers and stitchers should gain 78,000 jobs, although the growth rate is expected to be below average and employment is not even expected to reach the 1977 level by 1995. Production inspectors, testers, samplers, and weighers would be most affected by robotic vision systems, but the use of these systems seems to be in the distant future. Therefore, an increase of 119,000 in specting jobs and 36,000 testing jobs is projected through 1995. Tab le 5. P ercent distribution of em ploym ent o ccupational group, 1932 and projected 1995 m ajor 199 5 O ccupational group Total, all occupations......................... Professional, technical, and related workers Managers, officials, and proprietors ......... Salesworkers ............................................ Clerical workers.......................................... Craft and related workers .......................... Operatives .•............................................... Service workers.......................................... Laborers, except farm .............................. Farmers and farmworkers ......................... Sales occupations. Salesworker employment growth trends are generally tied to the growth of industries in which they are employed. Thus, security and bond sales agents and real estate agents should grow faster than average as do their related industries. Salesclerks should increase about average following the trend in retail trade where most are employed. However, because of the very large size of this occupation, it should be among the leaders in the number of jobs added during 1982-95. 198 2 Low trend M oderate trend High trend 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 16.3 9.4 6.9 18.8 11.4 12.8 16.0 5.8 2.7 17.3 9.6 6.8 18.8 11.6 12.1 16.4 5.5 1.9 17.1 9.6 6.9 18.9 11.6 12.1 16.3 5.5 1.9 17.2 9.6 6.9 18.9 11.6 12.2 16.3 5.6 1.9 The following list identifies those occupations in which the difference between the alternative (high or low) projected employment is greater than 5 percent from the moderate trend: Postmasters and mail superintendents Railroad conductors Postal mail carriers Postal service clerks Bookbinders Locomotive engineers Railroad brake operators Extruder operators, rubber or plastics Compression and injection mold machine operators, plastics Press assistants and feeders Shoemaking machine operators Low and high alternative projections The percentage distribution of occupational employment or staffing patterns within specific industries that was used to develop the low- and high-projection alternatives was identical to that used in the moderate-trend projections. Therefore, occupations that are concentrated in industries whose employment varies significantly are those which show the greatest variability among the three alternatives. Total employment in the moderate-trend alternatives var ied by only about 2 percent from both the low and high trends. Therefore, the distribution of employment by major occupational group varies little among the alternatives. (See table 5.) In looking at specific occupations, significant differences may exist between the moderate and either the low and high Data uses The current and projected occupational employment es timates presented in this article are developed by industry and are a part of a national industry-occupational employ ment matrix. Data from the matrix will underlie information in the 1984-85 edition of the Occupational Outlook Hand book which will be issued in the Spring of 1984. In addition to being used in the development of career guidance infor mation, national occupational employment data and projec tions are used at all levels of government, and by others, to formulate education plans, including vocational educa tion, and training requirements. State employment security agencies utilize the national matrix as part of their own programs of developing occupational projections. Other government agencies and private organizations also use the matrix for analytical purposes. □ alternatives. In virtually all cases, em ploym ent levels are small and the percent differences are relatively minor. In a few instances, projected employment is greater in the low alternative than in the moderate, or lower in the high alternative than in the moderate. For example, em ployment for aircraft structure assemblers is projected to be 28.000 in the low alternative and 26,000 in the moderate and high alternatives. This is due to significantly higher projected employment for aircraft manufacturing in the low alternative which encompasses higher levels of defense ex penditures. by 46 ■FOOTNOTES1See Handbook o f M ethods. Bulletin 2134 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982) , chapters 18-21. 2Table 1 includes only 370 detailed occupations with employment of 25,000 or more in 1982. Projections developed in greater detail with employment of 5,000 or more in 1982 will be published in the Spring of 1984 in O ccupational Projections and T raining D a ta , 1984 ed it ion. Current and projected occupational employment estimates are developed by the Bureau in the National Industry-Occupational Employment Matrix pro gram. The national matrix is developed by applying data on occupational staffing patterns o f industries collected in the Occupational Employment 47 Statistics Survey program to estimates of annual average industry em ployment collected in the Current Employment Statistics program. These surveys count jobs rather than people; therefore, the employment estimates contained in this report are different from those derived from a count of individuals in the Current Population Survey. 3 See Max L. Carey and Kevin Kasunic, “ Evaluating the 1980 projec tions of occupational employment,” M o n tjilv L a b o r Review, July 1982, pp. 2 2 -3 0 . 4U.S. Bureau of the Census, C urrent Business Report, Series BR. Monthly Retail Trade. A p p e n d ix T a b le s A -1. C ivilian lab o r fore® and p articipation rats® by ag@, s e x , and pae®, 1986-95, m iddle g ro w th path (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r .............. 16 to 2 4 ..................................... 20 and over .............................. 25 to 5 4 ..................................... 55 and o v e r .............................. 118,693 23,605 110,557 80,261 14,827 120,421 23,326 112,170 82,442 14,653 122,002 22,920 113,715 84,578 14,504 123,563 22,503 115,360 86,728 14,332 124,951 22,087 117,050 88,676 14,188 65.9 70.0 66.6 83.0 29.8 66.1 70.2 66.8 83.4 29.3 66.4 70.7 67.0 83.8 28.8 66.7 71.3 67.3 84.1 28.3 66.9 71.8 67.5 84.5 27.8 Men, 16 and o v e r ................... 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over ......................... 20 to 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ....................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and over .......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ........................ 60 and 61 ................ 62 to 6 4 ................... 65 and o v e r ..................... 65 to 69 ....................... 70 to 74 ....................... 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 74 ................... 75 and o v e r ................. 65,480 12,294 4,274 1,850 2,424 61,206 8,020 44,438 19,154 9,892 9,262 15,334 8,751 6,583 9,950 5,375 4,575 8,748 6,899 4,148 2,751 1,392 1,359 1,849 1,042 508 240 268 299 66,112 12,086 4,330 1,894 2,436 61,782 7,756 45,414 19,406 9,879 9,527 15,857 8,703 7,154 10,151 5,554 4,597 8,612 6,762 4,058 2,704 1,362 1,342 1,850 1,046 502 234 268 302 66,678 11,818 4,344 1,820 2,524 62,334 7,474 46,369 19,541 9,842 9,699 16,304 8,870 7,434 10,524 5,875 4,649 8,491 6,647 3,979 2,668 1,342 1,326 1,844 1,040 499 233 266 305 67,238 11,545 4,293 1,713 2,580 62,945 7,252 47,334 19,625 9,759 9,866 16,867 9,069 7,798 10,842 6,104 4,738 8,359 6,523 3,905 2,618 1,316 1,302 1,836 1,030 498 235 263 308 67,701 11,274 4,123 1,664 2,459 63,578 7,151 48,180 19,569 9,557 10,012 17,469 9,281 8,188 11,142 6,299 4,843 8,247 6,419 3,842 2,577 1,308 1,269 1,828 1,019 498 236 262 311 76.7 74.2 60.2 49.7 72.0 78.2 84.6 94.1 94.2 93.4 95.1 95.9 96.6 94.9 91.4 93.5 89.0 40.6 67.5 79.4 55.1 67.6 46.3 16.3 25.3 16.0 17.3 15.0 7.4 76.6 74.0 60.5 50.1 72.2 78.0 84.5 94.0 94.1 93.3 95.0 95.8 96.5 94.9 91.3 93.4 88.9 39.7 66.9 79.1 54.4 67.0 45.7 16.0 24.8 15.7 17.0 14.7 7.3 76.5 74.2 61.3 50.4 72.7 77.9 84.5 93.9 93.9 93.1 94.8 95.7 96.4 94.9 91.3 93.4 88.8 38.9 66.4 78.7 53.8 66.5 45.1 15.6 24.3 15.4 16.6 14.5 7.1 76.5 74.5 62.1 50.7 73.0 77.8 84.4 93.9 93.8 93.0 94.6 95.6 96.3 94.8 91.3 93.4 88.7 38.1 65.9 78.4 53.3 66.0 44.6 15.3 23.7 15.2 16.4 14.3 7.0 76.5 74.7 62.3 51.0 73.2 77.7 84.4 93.8 93.7 92.9 94.5 95.6 96.2 94.8 91.3 93.4 88.7 37.4 65.5 78.1 52.8 65.6 44.0 14.9 23.3 15.0 16.0 14.1 6.9 Women, 16 and o v e r.............. 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over .......................... 20 to 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ....................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and over .......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ....................... 60 and 61 ................ 62 to 6 4 ................... 65 and o v e r ..................... 65 to 69 ....................... 70 to 74 ....................... 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 7 4 ................... 75 and o v e r................. 53,213 11,311 3,862 1,611 2,251 49,351 7,449 35,823 15,764 8,189 7,575 12,526 7,037 5,489 7,533 4,100 3,433 6,079 4,819 2,937 1,882 937 945 1,260 778 320 145 175 162 54,309 11,240 3,921 1,650 2,271 50,388 7,319 37,028 16,149 8,267 7,882 13,126 7,091 6,035 7,753 4,265 3,488 6,041 4,759 2,893 1,866 922 944 1,282 797 321 143 178 164 55,324 11,102 3,943 1,587 2,356 51,381 7,159 38,209 16,444 8,329 8,115 13,660 7,314 6,346 8,105 4,539 3,566 6,013 4,712 2,856 1,856 914 942 1,301 811 323 144 179 167 56,325 10,958 3,910 1,500 2,410 52,415 7,048 39,394 16,680 8,355 8,325 14,296 7,565 6,731 8,418 4,747 3,671 5,973 4,659 2,821 1,838 904 934 1,314 822 323 145 178 169 57,250 10,813 3,778 1,461 2,317 53,472 7,035 40,496 16,804 8,290 8,514 14,974 7,829 7,145 8,718 4,926 3,792 5,941 4,612 2,791 1,821 899 922 1,329 829 328 149 179 172 56.1 66.1 54.3 44.6 64.3 56.3 74.5 72.3 74.8 75.0 74.5 74.5 74.1 75.0 64.6 67.2 61.8 21.6 41.3 50.4 32.2 39.5 27.2 7.7 15.1 7.3 7.9 6.9 2.3 56.7 66.6 54.7 45.0 64.8 56.8 75.4 73.2 75.6 75.9 75.4 75.6 75.1 76.1 65.3 67.8 62.5 21.3 41.3 50.6 32.2 39.5 27.2 7.6 15.1 7.3 7.8 7.0 2.3 57.2 67.4 55.6 45.4 65.5 57.4 76.3 74.0 76.5 76.8 76.2 76.6 76.1 77.2 65.9 68.3 63.2 21.0 41.3 50.8 32.1 39.6 27.2 7.6 15.1 7.3 7.8 7.0 2.3 57.8 68.3 56.5 45.8 66.0 57.9 77.2 74.8 77.3 77.7 77.0 77.6 77.1 78.2 66.5 68.7 63.8 20.8 41.4 50.9 32.1 39.6 27.2 7.5 15.1 7.2 7.7 6.9 2.2 58.3 69.1 56.8 46.2 66.5 58.4 78.1 75.6 78.1 78.5 77.8 78.6 78.0 79.2 67.1 69.2 64.5 20.5 41.5 51.1 32.1 39.6 27.1 7.4 15.1 7.2 7.7 6.9 2.2 48 A-1. Civilian labor fores and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, middle growth path—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Sex, age, and race Labor force participation rate Number Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 103,064 104,388 105,571 106,726 107,734 66.3 66.5 66.8 67.0 67.3 Men, 16 and over ................ 57,612 58,084 58,492 58,887 59,201 77.6 77.5 77.4 77.4 77.4 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and o v e r ...................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and over .................. 10,728 3,803 53,809 6,925 38,917 16,602 13,478 8,837 7,967 6,266 1,701 10,554 3,856 54,228 6,698 39,692 16,774 13,912 9,006 7,838 6,134 1,704 10,325 3,870 54,622 6,455 40,445 16,844 14,267 9,334 7,722 6,021 1,701 10,088 3,828 55,059 6,260 41,204 16,869 14,725 9,610 7,595 5,900 1,695 9,854 3,678 55,523 6,176 41,864 16,776 15,216 9,872 7,483 5,795 1,688 77.2 64.6 78.7 86.4 95.1 95.4 96.5 92.4 41.0 68.3 16.6 77.2 65.1 78.5 86.5 95.0 95.3 96.5 92.3 40.1 67.7 16.2 77.6 66.1 78.4 86.6 94.9 95.2 96.4 92.3 39.3 67.2 15.9 78.1 67.1 78.2 86.7 94.9 95.1 96.4 92.3 38.5 66.7 15.6 78.5 67.5 78.1 86.9 94.8 95.0 96.3 92.3 37.8 66.3 15.3 Women, 16 and o v e r........... 45,452 46,304 47,079 47,839 48,533 55.9 56.5 57.0 57.5 58.1 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and o v e r ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and over .................. 9,764 3,414 42,038 6,350 30,354 13,224 10,652 6,478 5,334 4,213 1,121 9,692 3,464 42,840 6,228 31,322 13,517 11,142 6,663 5,290 4,150 1,140 9,561 3,481 43,598 6,080 32,264 13,732 11,567 6,965 5,254 4,098 1,156 9,422 3,450 44,389 5,972 33,209 13,899 12,078 7,232 5,208 4,041 1,167 9,285 3,330 45,203 5,955 34,081 13,967 12,627 7,487 5,167 3,990 1,177 69.1 58.3 55.7 76.7 72.2 74.9 74.3 64.6 21.3 40.9 7.6 69.7 58.9 56.3 77.7 73.1 75.8 75.4 65.3 20.9 40.9 7.5 70.6 59.9 56.8 78.7 74.0 76.6 76.4 65.9 20.7 41.0 7.5 71.6 60.9 57.3 79.7 74.8 77.5 77.4 66.6 20.4 41.1 7.4 72.5 61.5 57.8 80.7 75.6 78.3 78.4 67.1 20.1 41.2 7.4 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 15,629 16,033 16,431 16,837 17,217 63.5 63.7 64.1 64.4 64.8 Men, 16 and over ................ 7,868 8,028 8,186 8,351 8,500 71.0 70.9 70.8 70.9 71.0 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ......................... 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ......................... 65 and over .................. 1,566 471 7,397 1,095 5,521 2,552 1,856 1,113 781 148 1,532 474 7,554 1,058 5,722 2,632 1,945 1,145 774 628 146 1,493 474 7,712 1,019 5,924 2,697 2,037 1,190 769 626 143 1,457 465 7,886 992 6,130 2,756 2,142 1,232 764 823 141 1,420 445 8,055 975 6,316 2,793 2,253 1,270 764 624 140 58.6 39.1 74.9 74.5 87.9 87.3 91.2 84.1 36.8 60.5 13.7 57.5 38.5 74.8 73.7 87.8 87.2 91.1 84.1 36.1 60.1 13.3 56.8 38.5 74.7 72.9 87.7 87.0 91.0 84.1 35.4 59.6 12.7 56.4 38.5 74.6 72.1 87.6 86.8 90.9 84.1 34.8 59.2 12.3 55.9 37.9 74.6 71.4 87.6 86.7 90.8 84.1 34.3 58.9 12.0 Women, 16 and o v e r........... 7,761 8,005 8,245 8,486 8,717 57.3 57.9 58.5 59.1 59.7 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ......................... 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ......................... 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ......................... 65 and o v e r .................. 1,547 448 7,313 1,099 5,469 2,540 1,874 1,055 745 606 139 1,548 457 7,548 1,091 5,706 2,632 1,984 1,090 751 609 142 1,541 462 7,783 1,079 5,945 2,712 2,093 1,140 759 614 145 1,536 460 8,026 1,076 6,185 2,781 2,218 1,186 765 618 147 1,528 448 8,269 1,080 6,415 2,837 2,347 1,231 774 622 152 51.8 35.4 59.6 63.8 72.8 74.1 76.1 64.8 24.6 44.0 8.4 52.0 35.5 60.2 64.6 73.6 75.0 77.0 65.3 24.3 43.9 8.3 52.4 35.9 60.8 65.3 74.3 75.9 77.8 65.8 24.0 43.7 8.3 53.1 36.4 61.3 66.0 75.1 76.7 78.7 66.2 23.8 43.6 8.1 53.7 36.5 61.9 66.7 75.8 77.5 79.5 66.6 23.5 43.6 8.2 W hite Black and o th e r 633 49 A -1. C ivilian iab or fo rc e and p articipation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, m iddle g ro w th p a th — C ontinued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total, 16 and o v e r .............. to 2 4 ..................................... and over .............................. to 5 4 ..................................... and over .............................. 126,350 21,872 118,743 90,406 14,072 127,587 21,651 120,087 91,960 13,976 128,860 21,552 121,315 93,358 13,950 130,102 21,340 122,445 94,788 13,974 131,387 21,130 123,583 96,210 14,047 67.2 72.3 67.7 84.9 27.4 67.3 72.6 67.9 85.1 27.1 67.5 72.9 68.0 85.4 26.8 67.6 73.0 68.2 85.7 26.7 67.8 73.0 68.3 85.9 26.6 Men, 16 and o v e r ................... 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over .......................... 20 to 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ...................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and over .......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ........................ 60 and 61 ............ 62 to 6 4 ................... 65 and over ..................... 65 to 69 ........................ 70 to 74 ........................ 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 7 4 ................... 75 and o v e r................. 68,170 11,113 3,959 1,665 2,294 64,211 7,154 48,908 19,389 9,221 10,168 18,105 9,467 8,638 11,414 6,442 4,972 8,149 6,339 3,814 2,525 1,281 1,244 1,810 998 500 238 262 312 68,590 10,953 3,896 1,681 2,215 64,694 7,057 49,571 19,098 8,936 10,162 18,343 9,740 8,603 12,130 6,994 5,136 8,066 6,273 3,823 2,450 1,225 1,225 1,793 975 505 240 265 313 69,035 10,860 3,915 1,707 2,208 65,120 6,945 50,148 18,751 8,625 10,126 18,702 9,927 8,775 12,695 7,264 5,431 8,027 6,252 3,859 2,393 1,195 1,198 1,775 955 505 236 269 315 69,479 10,713 3,968 1,745 2,223 65,511 6,745 50,749 18,420 8,377 10,043 19,075 10,099 8,976 13,254 7,612 5,642 8,017 6,267 3,924 2,343 1,183 1,160 1,750 931 502 230 272 317 69,970 10,573 4,043 1,790 2,253 65,927 6,530 51,358 18,105 8,262 9,843 19,446 10,253 9,193 13,807 7,987 5,820 8,039 6,311 4,006 2,305 1,180 1,125 1,728 909 499 229 270 320 76.4 74.8 62.2 51.4 73.3 77.5 84.3 93.7 93.6 92.7 94.4 95.5 96.1 94.9 91.2 93.3 88.6 36.8 65.1 77.8 52.3 65.1 43.5 14.6 22.8 14.7 15.7 13.9 6.7 76.4 74.9 62.2 51.8 73.6 77.4 84.3 93.6 93.5 92.6 94.2 95.5 96.0 94.8 91.2 93.3 88.6 36.2 64.8 77.5 51.6 64.6 43.0 14.3 22.4 14.5 15.5 13.7 6.6 76.3 74.8 62.5 52.1 73.8 77.3 84.3 93.5 93.4 92.5 94.1 95.4 96.0 94.8 91.2 93.3 88.5 35.8 64.6 77.2 51.1 64.2 42.5 13.9 22.0 14.3 15.2 13.5 6.5 76.2 74.7 62.7 52.4 74.1 77.2 84.2 93.5 93.2 92.4 94.0 95.4 95.9 94.8 91.1 93.2 88.4 35.5 64.5 77.0 50.8 63.8 42.0 13.6 21.6 14.0 14.9 13.3 6.4 76.1 74.5 62.9 52.7 74.4 77.1 84.1 93.4 93.1 92.3 93.9 95.3 95.8 94.8 91.1 93.2 88.4 35.3 64.5 76.7 50.5 63.4 41.7 13.3 21.2 13.8 14.7 13.1 6.3 Women, 16 and o v e r.............. 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over ......................... 20 to 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ....................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and over .......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ....................... 60 and 61 ................ 62 to 6 4 ................... 65 and over ..................... 65 to 69 ....................... 70 to 74 ....................... 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 7 4 ................... 75 and o v e r ................. 58,180 10,759 3,648 1,464 2,184 54,532 7,111 41,498 16,812 8,106 8,706 15,691 8,074 7,617 8,995 5,069 3,926 5,923 4,587 2,786 1,801 891 910 1,336 829 333 151 182 174 58,997 10,698 3,604 1,481 2,123 55,393 7,094 42,389 16,717 7,949 8,768 16,055 8,395 7,660 9,617 5,527 4,090 5,910 4,571 2,810 1,761 857 904 1,339 824 340 154 186 175 59,825 10,692 3,630 1,506 2,124 56,195 7,062 43,210 16,569 7,760 8,809 16,519 8,635 7,884 10,122 5,765 4,357 5,923 4,581 2,850 1,731 839 892 1,342 821 344 153 191 177 60,623 10,627 3,689 1,540 2,149 56,934 6,938 44,039 16,431 7,620 8,811 16,981 8,848 8,133 10,627 6,067 4,560 5,957 4,618 2,912 1,706 835 871 1,339 814 346 151 195 179 61,417 10,557 3,761 1,581 2,180 57,656 6,796 44,852 16,300 7,582 8,718 17,427 9,034 8,393 11,125 6,390 4,735 6,008 4,671 2,985 1,686 836 850 1,337 808 348 151 197 181 58.8 69.9 57.0 46.6 67.0 58.9 79.0 76.4 78.9 79.3 78.6 79.5 78.9 80.2 67.6 69.7 65.1 20.3 41.6 51.3 32.2 39.7 27.1 7.4 15.2 7.2 7.5 6.9 2.2 59.2 70.4 57.2 47.0 67.5 59.3 79.8 77.0 79.7 80.1 79.3 80.4 79.8 81.1 68.1 70.1 65.7 20.1 41.7 51.5 32.0 39.7 27.1 7.3 15.2 7.2 7.5 6.9 2.1 59.6 71.0 57.6 47.3 68.0 59.7 80.6 77.6 80.4 80.9 80.0 81.2 80.6 82.0 68.6 70.5 66.2 20.0 41.9 51.6 32.0 39.7 27.1 7.2 15.2 7.1 7.5 6.9 2.1 60.0 71.3 57.9 47.7 68.4 60.1 81.4 78.1 81.1 81.6 80.7 82.0 81.3 82.8 69.1 70.9 66.8 19.9 42.2 51.8 32.0 39.7 27.0 7.1 15.2 7.1 7.4 6.9 2.1 60.3 71.6 58.2 48.0 68.9 60.4 82.0 78.7 81.7 82.2 81.3 82.8 82.0 83.5 69.5 71.3 67.3 19.9 42.5 51.9 32.1 39.7 27.0 7.0 15.2 7.1 7.3 6.9 2.0 16 20 25 55 50 A-1. Civilian labor fore® and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, middle growth path—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Labor force participation rate Civilian labor force Sex, age, and race Number Percent 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 111,454 112,393 67.5 67.7 67.8 68.0 68.1 60,102 60,408 60,757 77.3 77.2 77.1 77.1 77.0 9,577 3,489 56,310 6,088 42,921 16,283 15,897 10,741 7,301 5,642 1,659 9,502 3,512 56,590 5,990 43,345 15,943 16,170 11,232 7,255 5,612 1,643 9,386 3,565 56,843 5,821 43,783 15,621 16,445 11,717 7,239 5,617 1,622 9,271 3,639 57,118 5,632 44,232 15,324 16,717 12,191 7,254 5,651 1,603 78.8 67.6 78.0 87.0 94.7 94.9 96.3 92.2 37.1 66.0 14.9 79.0 67.9 77.9 87.1 94.7 94.8 96.3 92.2 36.6 65.7 14.6 79.1 68.3 77.8 87.2 94.6 94.7 96.2 92.2 36.1 65.5 14.3 79.1 68.7 77.7 87.3 94.5 94.6 96.2 92.1 35.8 65.4 14.0 79.1 69.1 77.6 87.3 94.5 94.6 96.2 92.1 35.6 65.5 13.7 49,230 49,835 50,455 51,046 51,636 58.5 58.9 59.3 59.7 60.0 9,224 3,215 46,015 6,009 34,865 13,936 13,208 7,721 5,141 3,959 1,182 9,161 3,177 46,658 5,984 35,555 13,819 13,479 8,257 5,119 3,937 1,182 9,149 3,201 47,254 5,948 36,185 13,657 13,844 8,684 5,121 3,938 1,183 9,091 3,253 47,793 5,838 36,813 13,503 14,200 9,110 5,142 3,964 1,178 9,025 3,318 48,318 5,707 37,433 13,365 14,543 9,525 5,178 4,004 1,174 73.3 61.7 58.3 81.6 76.3 79.1 79.4 67.7 19.9 41.3 7.3 74.0 62.0 58.7 82.5 77.0 79.8 80.3 68.3 19.7 41.4 7.2 74.6 62.5 59.1 83.3 77.6 80.5 81.1 68.8 19.6 41.7 7.1 75.1 62.9 59.5 84.1 78.1 81.2 81.9 69.2 19.6 42.0 7.0 75.4 63.3 59.8 84.9 78.7 81.8 82.7 69.7 19.5 42.2 6.9 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 17,602 17,953 18,303 18,648 18,994 65.1 65.3 65.5 65.6 65.7 Men, 16 and over ................ 8,652 8,791 8,933 9,071 9,213 71.0 70.9 70.8 70.7 70.6 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ......................... 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ......................... 55 and o v e r ...................... 55 to 64 ......................... 65 and over .................. 1,400 421 8,231 979 6,490 2,813 2,368 1,309 762 1,376 407 8,384 969 6,650 2,815 2,446 1,389 765 1,358 403 8,530 955 6,803 2,808 2,532 1,463 772 1,327 403 8,668 924 6,966 2,799 2,630 1,537 778 1,302 404 8,809 898 7,126 2,781 2,729 1,616 785 55.6 37.0 74.5 70.8 87.5 86.6 90.8 84.1 33.7 55.0 36.3 74.4 70.2 87.4 86.4 90.7 84.2 33.4 631 640 650 660 58.5 58.1 135 134 132 128 125 11.4 11.1 53.5 35.4 74.2 68.9 87.3 86.1 90.6 84.2 32.9 57.7 10.3 52.7 35.0 74.1 68.3 87.2 86.0 90.5 84.2 32.6 627 54.4 35.8 74.3 69.6 87.4 86.2 90.7 84.2 33.2 57.9 10.8 Women, 16 and o v e r........... 8,950 9,162 9,370 9,577 9,781 60.3 60.7 61.1 61.4 61.7 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ......................... 20 and o v e r ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ......................... 35 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and o v e r ....................... 55 to 64 ......................... 65 and o v e r .................. 1,535 433 8,517 1,102 6,633 2,876 2,483 1,274 782 628 154 1,537 427 8,735 1,110 6,834 2,898 2,576 1,360 791 634 157 1,543 429 8,941 1,114 7,025 2,912 2,675 1,438 802 643 159 1,536 436 9,141 1,100 7,226 2,928 2,781 1,517 815 654 161 1,532 443 9,338 1,089 7,419 2,935 2,884 1,600 830 667 163 54.4 36.4 62.4 87.4 76.5 78.3 80.3 66.9 23.3 43.6 8.0 54.7 36.3 62.8 68.1 77.1 79.1 81.1 67.4 23.1 43.5 8.0 55.1 36.3 63.1 68.7 77.7 79.8 81.8 67.7 22.9 43.5 7.9 55.2 36.5 63.5 69.3 78.2 80.5 82.5 68.1 22.8 43.6 7.8 55.3 36.6 63.8 69.8 78.7 81.1 83.1 68.4 22.8 43.7 7.7 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 108,748 109,634 110,557 Men, 16 and o v e r ................ 59,518 59,799 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and o v e r ...................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and over .................. 9,713 3,538 55,980 6,175 42,418 16,576 15,737 10,105 7,387 5,712 1,675 Women, 16 and o v e r........... 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and o v e r ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and over .................. W hite Black and o th e r 51 57.4 9.9 A -2. Civilian lab o r fore© and p articipation rates by ag@, sest, and race, 198S-SS, high g ro w th path (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r .............. 16 to 2 4 ..................................... 20 and over .............................. 25 to 5 4 ..................................... 55 and over .............................. 122,292 24,324 113,876 82,620 15,348 124,726 24,126 116,148 85,193 15,407 127,008 23,790 118,356 87,733 15,485 129,268 23,444 120,663 90,292 15,532 131,319 23,091 122,990 92,639 15,589 67.9 72.2 68.6 85.4 30.9 68.5 72.7 69.2 86.2 30.8 69.1 73.4 69.8 86.9 30.7 69.8 74.3 70.4 87.6 30.6 70.3 75.1 70.9 88.3 30.6 Men, 16 and over ................... 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over ......................... 20 io 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ....................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and o v e r ......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ....................... 60 and 61 ................ 62 to 6 4 ................... 65 and over ..................... 65 to 69 ....................... 70 to 74 ........................ 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 7 4 ................... 75 and over ................. 66,529 12,594 4,420 1,921 2,499 62,109 8,174 44,758 19,295 10,035 9,260 15,457 8,846 6,611 10,006 5,400 4,606 9,177 7,142 4,246 2,896 1,453 1,443 2,035 1,154 553 263 290 328 67,397 12,444 4,509 1,982 2,527 62,888 7,935 45,830 19,604 10,052 9,552 16,004 8,818 7,188 10,222 5,586 4,636 9,123 7,049 4,172 2,877 1,433 1,444 2,074 1,180 556 261 295 338 68,205 12,229 4,552 1,919 2,633 63,653 7,677 46,888 19,806 10,045 9,781 16,475 9,005 7,470 10,607 5,914 4,693 9,088 6,978 4,111 2,867 1,423 1,444 2,110 1,198 564 266 298 348 68,996 12,007 4,529 1,822 2,707 64,467 7,478 47,953 19,946 9,989 9,957 17,066 9,225 7,841 10,941 6,151 4,790 9,036 6,894 4,053 2,841 1,405 1,436 2.142 1,213 571 272 299 358 69,674 11,782 4,380 1,783 2,597 65,294 7,402 48,894 19,943 9,809 10,134 17,696 9,461 8,235 11,255 6,352 4,903 8,998 6,827 4,004 2,823 1,406 1,417 2,171 1,223 581 279 302 367 77.9 76.0 62.3 51.6 74.2 79.4 86.2 94.8 94.9 94.8 95.1 96.6 97.7 95.3 91.9 93.9 89.6 42.6 69.9 81.3 58.0 70.5 49.1 17.9 28.0 17.4 19.0 16.2 8.1 78.1 76.2 63.0 52.4 74.9 79.4 86.5 94.9 95.1 94.9 95.2 96.6 97.8 95.3 92.0 94.0 89.6 42.1 69.8 81.3 57.9 70.5 49.2 17.9 28.0 17.4 18.9 16.2 8.1 78.3 76.7 64.2 53.1 75.8 79.5 86.8 95.0 95.2 85.1 95.4 96.7 97.9 95.3 92.1 94.1 89.6 41.7 69.7 81.3 57.8 70.6 49.1 17.9 28.0 17.4 19.0 16.2 8.1 78.5 77.5 65.5 53.9 76.6 79.6 87.0 95.1 95.4 95.2 95.5 96.8 98.0 95.4 92.1 94.1 89.7 41.2 69.7 81.4 57.8 70.5 49.2 17.8 28.0 17.4 19.0 16.2 8.1 78.7 78.0 66.2 54.7 77.3 79.7 87.3 95.2 95.5 95.3 95.7 96.8 98.1 95.4 92.2 94.2 89.7 40.8 69.7 81.4 57.9 70.5 49.1 17.7 28.0 17.5 19.0 16.3 8.1 Women, 16 and o v e r.............. 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over ......................... 20 to 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ....................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and o v e r .......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ....................... 60 and 61 ................ 62 to 64 ................... 65 and over ..................... 65 to 69 ....................... 70 to 74 ....................... 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 74 ................... 75 and over ................. 55,763 11,730 3,996 1,706 2,290 51,767 7,734 37,862 16,906 8,777 8,129 13,158 7,410 5,748 7,798 4,345 3,453 6,171 4,860 2,949 1,911 953 958 1,311 800 336 152 184 175 57,329 11,682 4,069 1,751 2,318 53,260 7,613 39,363 17,384 8,888 8,496 13,848 7,510 6,338 8,131 4,540 3,591 6,284 4,940 3,040 1,900 941 959 1,344 824 339 151 188 181 58,803 11,561 4,100 1,690 2,410 54,703 7,461 40,845 17,767 8,983 8,784 14,474 7,792 6,682 8,604 4,853 3,751 6,397 5,024 3,129 1,895 936 959 1,373 843 343 152 191 187 60,272 11,437 4,076 1,601 2,475 56.196 7,361 42,333 18,087 9,037 9,050 15,211 8,103 7,108 9,041 5,099 3,942 6,496 5,097 3,215 1,882 928 954 1,399 859 348 156 192 192 61,645 11,309 3,949 1,563 2,386 57,696 7,360 43,745 18,287 8,994 9,293 15,995 8,430 7,565 9,463 5,314 4,149 6,591 5,168 3,298 1,870 926 944 1,423 871 354 160 194 198 58.8 68.5 56.1 47.2 65.4 59.0 77.3 76.4 80.2 80.4 80.0 78.3 78.1 78.6 66.9 71.2 62.1 21.9 41.6 50.6 32.7 40.2 27.6 8.0 15.5 7.7 8.3 7.3 2.5 59.8 69.2 56.8 47.8 86.1 60.1 78.4 77.8 81.4 81.6 81.2 79.8 79.6 80.0 68.5 72.1 64.3 22.2 42.9 53.1 32.7 40.4 27.6 8.0 15.6 7.7 8.3 7.3 2.5 60.8 70.2 57.8 48.3 67.0 61.1 79.6 79.1 82.7 82.8 82.5 81.2 81.1 81.3 70.0 73.0 66.4 22.4 44.1 55.6 32.8 40.5 27.7 8.0 15.7 7.8 8.2 7.4 2.5 61.8 71.3 58.9 48.9 67.8 62.1 80.7 80.4 83.9 84.0 83.7 82.6 82.5 82.6 71.4 73.8 68.5 22.6 45.3 58.1 32.9 40.7 27.7 8.0 15.8 7.8 8.2 7.5 2.5 62.8 72.3 59.4 49.4 68.5 63.0 81.8 81.7 85.0 85.2 84.9 83.9 84.0 83.9 72.8 74.7 70.5 22.7 46.5 60.4 33.0 40.8 27.8 8.0 15.9 7.8 8.2 7.5 2.5 52 Civilian labor fore© and participation rates by ag@, s©x5 and race, 1©S6=S§, high growth path“-C©ntinued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 105,660 107,529 109,256 110,948 112,471 67.9 68.5 69.1 69.7 70.2 Men, 16 and over ................ 58,215 58,827 59,378 59,906 60,344 78.4 78.4 78.6 78.7 78.9 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ......................... 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ......................... 55 and o v e r ...................... 55 to 6 4 ........................ 65 and over .................. 10,819 3,843 54,372 6,976 39,062 16,639 13,557 8,866 8,334 6,472 1,862 10,660 3,904 54,923 6,756 39,890 16,843 14,004 9,043 8,277 6,378 1,899 10,445 3,925 55,453 6,520 40,702 16,954 14,372 9,376 8,231 6,301 1,930 10,220 3,889 56,017 6,331 41,514 17,011 14,844 9,659 8,172 6,213 1,959 9,997 3,743 56,601 6,254 42,222 16,946 15,349 9,927 8,125 6,139 1,986 77.8 65.3 79.5 87.1 95.4 95.6 97.1 92.7 42.9 70.5 18.1 78.0 65.9 79.5 87.3 95.5 95.7 97.1 92.7 42.4 70.4 18.1 78.5 67.0 79.6 87.5 95.5 95.8 97.1 92.8 41.9 70.3 18.1 79.1 68.2 79.6 87.7 95.6 95.9 97.1 92.8 41.4 70.3 18.0 79.6 68.7 79.6 87.9 95.6 96.0 97.2 92.8 41.0 70.3 17.9 Women, 16 and o y e r........... 47,445 48,702 49,878 51,042 52,127 58.4 59.4 60.4 61.4 62.4 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ......................... 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ......................... 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ......................... 55 and o v e r ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and o v e r .................. 10,048 3,512 43,933 6,536 31,991 14,122 11,156 6,713 5,406 4,240 1,166 9,977 3,568 45,134 6,409 33,217 14,491 11,723 7,003 5,508 4,313 1,195 9,845 3,589 46,289 6,256 34,424 14,779 12,227 7,418 5,609 4,389 1,220 9,707 3,561 47,481 6,146 35,640 15,015 12,826 7,799 5,695 4,453 1,242 9,569 3,441 48,686 6,128 36,779 15,145 13,466 8,168 5,779 4,517 1,262 71.1 60.0 58.3 78.9 76.1 80.0 77.8 66.9 21.5 41.2 7.9 71.8 60.7 59.3 80.0 77.5 81.2 79.3 68.6 21.8 42.5 7.9 72.7 61.8 60.3 81.0 78.9 82.5 80.7 70.2 22.1 43.9 7.9 73.8 62.9 61.3 82.0 80.3 83.7 82.2 71.8 22.3 45.2 7.9 74.7 63.5 62.3 83.0 81.6 84.9 83.6 73.3 22.5 46.6 7.9 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 16,632 17,197 17,752 18,320 18,848 67.6 68.4 69.2 70.1 70.9 Men, 16 and o v e r ................ 8,314 8,570 8,827 9,090 9,330 75.0 75.7 76.4 77.2 77.9 16 to 24 ............................. 18 to 19 ......................... 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ..................... . 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and over .................. 1,775 577 7,737 1,198 5,696 2,656 1,900 1,140 843 670 173 1,784 605 7,965 1,179 5,940 2,761 2,000' 1,179 846 671 175 1,784 627 8,200 1,157 6,186 2,852 2,103 1,231 857 677 180 1,787 640 8,450 1,147 6,439 2,935 2,222 1,282 864 681 183 1,785 637 8,693 1,148 6,672 2,997 2,347 1,328 66.4 47.9 78.4 81.6 90.7 90.9 93.4 86.1 873 39.7 688 185 64.1 16.0 66.9 49.1 78.9 82.2 91.1 91.4 93.7 86.6 39.4 64.2 15.9 67.9 51.0 79.4 82.8 91.6 92.0 94.0 87.0 39.4 64.4 16.0 69.2 52.9 80.0 83.4 92.1 92.5 94.3 87.5 39.3 64.7 16.0 70.3 54.3 80.5 84.1 92.5 93.0 94.6 87.9 39.2 64.9 15.9 Women, 16 and o v e r........... 8,318 8,627 8,925 9,230 9,518 61.4 62.4 63.3 64.3 65.2 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ......................... 20 and o v e r ....................... 20 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ......................... 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ......................... 55 and o v e r ....................... 55 to 64 ......................... 65 and over .................. 1,682 484 7,834 1,198 5,871 2,784 2,002 1,085 765 620 145 1,705 501 8,126 1,204 6,146 2,893 2,125 1,128 776 627 149 1,716 511 8,414 1,205 6.421 2,988 2,247 1,186 788 635 153 1,730 515 8,715 1,215 6,699 3,072 2,385 1,242 801 644 157 1,740 508 9,010 1,232 6,966 3,142 2,529 1,295 812 651 161 56.3 38.2 63.8 69.6 78.1 81.3 81.3 65.7 25.2 45.0 8.8 57.3 38.9 64.8 71.3 79.3 82.5 82.4 67.6 25.1 45.2 8.7 58.4 39.7 65.7 72.9 80.3 83.6 83.5 68.4 24.9 45.2 8.7 59.8 40.7 66.6 74.5 81.3 84.7 84.6 69.3 24.9 45.5 8.7 61.1 41.4 67.4 76.1 82.3 85.8 85.7 70.0 24.7 45.6 8.7 W hite B lack and o th e r 53 A-2. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, high growth path—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total, 16 and o v e r .............. 16 to 2 4 ..................................... 20 and over .............................. 25 to 5 4 ..................................... 55 and over .............................. 133,388 22,948 125,327 94,760 15,680 135,288 22,796 127,302 96,709 15,783 137,205 22,769 129,135 98,486 15,950 139,085 22,623 130,861 100,292 16,170 140,973 22,476 132,557 102,070 16,427 70.9 75.9 71.5 89.0 30.5 71.4 76.5 72.0 89.5 30.6 71.9 77.0 72.4 90.1 30.7 72.3 77.4 72.9 90.6 30.8 72.7 77.7 73.3 91.1 31.1 Men, 16 and o v e r ................... 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over .......................... 20 to 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ....................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and o v e r .......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ........................ 60 and 61 ................ 62 to 6 4 ................... 65 and o v e r ..................... 65 to 69 ....................... 70 to 74 ....................... 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 7 4 ................... 75 and over ................. 70,364 11,668 4,236 1,798 2,438 66,128 7,432 49,716 19,813 9,492 10,321 18,361 9,670 8,691 11,542 6,503 5,039 8,980 6,787 3,994 2,793 1,387 1,406 2,193 1,223 594 287 307 376 70,999 11,555 4,196 1,828 2,368 66,803 7,359 50,476 19,569 9,225 10,344 18,628 9.969 8,659 12,279 7,067 5,212 8,968 6,758 4,022 2,736 1,335 1,401 2,210 1,217 609 294 315 384 71,656 11,513 4,244 1,870 2,374 67,412 7,269 51,146 19,265 8,928 10,337 19,016 10,179 8,837 12,865 7,347 5,518 8,997 6,771 4,076 2,695 1,310 1,385 2,226 1,215 618 294 324 393 72,311 11,414 4,328 1,925 2,403 67,983 7,086 51,842 18,977 8,695 10,282 19,419 10,375 9,044 13,446 7,707 5,739 9,055 6,822 ' 4,161 2,661 1,305 1,356 2,233 1,207 624 293 331 402 73,005 11,321 4,436 1,988 2,448 68,569 6,885 52,545 18,701 8,598 10,103 19,821 10,553 9,268 14,023 8,096 5,927 9,139 6,899 4,264 2,635 1,309 1,326 2,240 1,199 630 295 335 411 78.9 78.6 66.5 55.5 77.9 79.9 87.6 95.3 95.6 95.5 95.8 96.9 98.2 95.4 92.2 94.2 89.8 40.5 69.7 81.5 57.8 70.5 49.1 17.7 27.9 17.4 18.9 16.2 8.1 79.0 79.0 67.0 56.3 78.6 79.9 87.9 95.3 95.8 95.6 95.9 97.0 98.3 95.5 92.4 94.3 89.9 40.3 69.8 81.5 57.6 70.4 49.1 17.6 27.9 17.5 19.0 16.2 8.1 79.2 79.3 67.7 57.1 79.4 80.0 88.2 95.4 95.9 95.7 96.1 97.0 98.4 95.5 92.4 94.3 89.9 40.1 70.0 81.6 57.6 70.4 49.1 17.5 28.0 17.4 19.0 16.2 8.1 79.3 79.6 68.4 57.8 80.1 80.1 88.4 95.5 96.1 95.9 96.2 97.1 98.5 95.5 92.5 94.4 90.0 40.1 70.2 81.6 57.7 70.4 49.1 17.4 28.0 17.4 19.0 16.2 8.1 79.4 79.8 69.1 58.6 80.8 80.2 88.7 95.5 96.2 96.0 96.3 97.2 98.6 95.6 92.5 94.5 90.0 40.1 70.5 81.7 57.8 70.3 49.1 17.3 28.0 17.4 18.9 16.2 8.1 Women, 16 and o v e r.............. 16 to 24 ................................ 16 to 19 ............................ 16 and 1 7 .................... 18 and 1 9 .................... 20 and over .......................... 20 to 24 ............................ 25 to 54 ................................ 25 to 34 ............................ 25 to 29 ....................... 30 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ............................ 35 to 39 ....................... 40 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ............................ 45 to 49 ....................... 50 to 54 ....................... 55 and o v e r .......................... 55 to 64 ............................ 55 to 59 ....................... 60 to 64 ....................... 60 and 61 ................ 62 to 6 4 ................... 65 and over ..................... 65 to 69 ....................... 70 to 74 ....................... 70 and 71 ................ 72 to 74 ................... 75 and o v e r ................. 63,024 11,280 3,825 1,570 2,255 59,199 7,455 45,044 18,357 8,819 9,538 16,822 8,736 8,086 9,865 5,490 4,375 6,700 5,259 3,405 1,854 921 933 1,441 875 363 165 198 203 64,289 11,241 3,790 1,592 2,198 60,499 7,451 46,233 18,311 8,671 9,640 17,279 9,127 8,152 10,643 6,010 4,633 6,815 5,358 3,540 1,818 888 930 1,457 875 375 170 205 207 65,549 11,256 3,826 1,621 2,205 61,723 7,430 47,340 18,203 8,486 9,717 17,835 9,426 8,409 11,302 6,293 5,009 6,953 5,483 3,691 1,792 873 919 1,470 876 381 170 211 213 66,774 11,209 3,896 1,661 2,235 62,878 7,313 48,450 18,101 8,353 9,748 18,389 9,697 8,692 11,960 6,647 5,313 7,115 5,638 3,867 1,771 871 900 1,477 872 387 169 218 218 67,968 11,155 3,980 1,709 2,271 63,988 7,175 49,525 18,000 8,329 9,671 18,921 9,934 8,987 12,604 7,023 5,581 7,288 5,806 4,052 1,754 875 879 1,482 868 391 170 221 223 63.7 73.2 59.8 50.0 69.2 64.0 82.8 82.9 86.2 86.3 86.1 85.2 85.4 85.1 74.1 75.5 72.5 22.9 47.7 62.7 33.1 41.0 27.8 7.9 16.0 7.8 8.2 7.5 2.5 64.5 74.0 60.2 50.5 69.9 64.8 83.9 84.0 87.3 87.4 87.2 86.5 86.7 86.3 75.4 76.2 74.4 23.2 48.9 64.8 33.1 41.1 27.9 7.9 16.1 7.9 8.3 7.6 2.5 65.3 74.7 60.7 51.0 70.6 65.6 84.8 85.0 88.3 88.4 88.2 87.7 88.0 87.4 76.6 77.0 76.1 23.5 50.2 66.9 33.1 41.3 27.9 7.9 16.2 7.9 8.3 7.6 2.5 66.0 75.2 61.2 51.4 71.2 66.4 85.8 86.0 89.3 89.4 89.2 88.8 89.1 88.5 77.7 77.7 77.8 23.8 51.5 68.7 33.3 41.4 28.0 7.8 16.3 7.9 8.3 7.7 2.5 66.7 75.7 61.6 51.9 71.8 67.1 86.6 86.9 90.2 90.3 90.2 89.9 90.2 89.4 78.8 78.3 79.3 24.2 52.8 70.4 33.4 41.5 28.0 7.7 16.3 7.9 8.3 7.7 2.5 54 A-2. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, high growth path—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 113,997 115,387 116,795 118,173 119,560 70.8 71.2 71.7 72.1 72.5 Men, 16 and o v e r ................ 60,784 61,180 61,592 62,006 62,451 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.1 79.2 16 to 24 ............................ 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and o v e r ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................ 25 to 34 ................. ....... 35 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and oyer .................. 9,868 3,607 57,177 6,261 42,824 16,773 15,883 10,168 8,092 6,087 2,005 9,741 3,561 57,619 6,180 43,374 16,504 16,057 10,813 8,065 6,045 2,020 9,677 3,590 58,002 6,087 43,841 16,185 16,344 11,312 8,074 6,041 2,033 9,570 3,648 58,358 5,922 44,325 15,886 16,632 11,807 8,111 6,073 2,038 9,463 3,728 58,723 5,735 44,815 15,608 16,916 12,291 8,173 6,130 2,043 80.0 69.0 79.7 88.2 95.7 96.0 97.2 92.8 40.7 70.3 17.9 80.3 69.3 79.7 88.4 95.7 96.1 97.2 92.9 40.4 70.3 17.8 80.6 69.8 79.7 88.6 95.7 96.2 97.3 92.8 40.2 70.5 17.7 80.7 70.3 79.7 88.8 95.7 96.2 97.3 92.8 40.1 70.7 17.5 80.8 70.8 79.8 88.9 95.7 96.3 97.3 92.9 40.2 71.0 17.4 Women, 16 and o v e r........... 53,213 54,207 55,203 56,167 57,109 63.3 64.1 64.9 65.7 66.4 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ........................ 35 to 44 ........................ 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and over .................. 9,514 3,329 49,884 6,185 37,824 15,165 14,141 8,518 5,875 4,599 1,276 9,454 3,294 50,913 6,160 38,777 15,089 14,491 9,197 5,976 4,689 1,287 9,446 3,322 51,881 6,124 39,660 14,958 14,936 9,766 6,097 4,800 1,297 9,392 3,379 52,788 6,013 40,535 14,833 15,370 10,332 6,240 4,940 1,300 9,330 3,451 53,658 5,879 41,384 14,719 15,785 10,880 6,395 5,093 1,302 75.7 63.9 63.2 84.0 82.8 86.0 85.0 74.7 22.7 48.0 7.9 76.4 64.3 64.1 84.9 83.9 87.1 86.3 76.0 23.0 49.4 7.8 77.0 64.8 64.9 85.8 85.0 88.2 87.5 77.3 23.3 50.8 7.8 77.5 65.3 65.7 86.6 86.0 89.2 88.7 78.5 23.7 52.3 7.7 77.9 65.8 66.4 87.4 87.0 90.1 89.7 79.6 24.1 53.7 7.7 Total, 16 and o v e r ........... 19,391 19,901 20,410 20,912 21,413 71.7 72.4 73.0 73.6 74.1 Men, 16 and o v e r ................ 9,580 9,819 10,064 10,305 10,554 78.6 79.2 79.8 80.4 80.9 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ......................... 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ........................ 55 and o v e r ........................................... 55 to 64 ......................... 65 and o v e r.................. 1,800 629 8,951 1,171 6,892 3,040 2,478 1,374 888 700 188 1,814 635 9,184 1,179 7,102 3,065 2,571 1,466 903 713 190 1,836 654 9,410 1,182 7,305 3,080 2,672 1,553 923 730 193 1,844 680 9,625 1,164 7,517 3,091 2,787 1,639 944 749 195 1,858 708 9,846 1,150 7,730 3,093 2,905 1,732 966 769 197 71.5 55.3 81.0 84.7 93.0 93.5 95.0 88.3 39.3 65.3 15.8 72.5 56.6 81.5 85.4 93.4 94.1 95.3 88.8 39.4 65.7 15.8 73.5 58.1 81.9 86.2 93.8 94.6 95.7 89.4 39.7 66.1 15.8 74.4 59.7 82.4 86.8 94.2 95.1 96.0 89.8 39.9 66.5 15.7 75.2 61.3 82.8 87.5 94.6 95.6 96.4 90.3 40.1 66.9 15.6 Women, 16 and o v e r........... 9,811 10,082 10,346 10,607 10,859 66.1 66.8 67.4 68.0 68.5 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and over ...................... 20 to 24 ........................ 25 to 54 ............................. 25 to 34 ......................... 35 to 44 ......................... 45 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ...................... 55 to 64 ........................ 65 and o v e r .................. 1,766 496 9,315 1,270 7,220 3,192 2,681 1,347 825 660 165 1,787 496 9,586 1,291 7,456 3,222 2,788 1,446 839 669 170 1,810 504 9,842 1,306 7,680 3,245 2,899 1,536 856 683 173 1,817 517 10,090 1,300 7,915 3,268 3,019 1,628 875 698 177 1,825 529 10,330 1,296 8,141 3,281 3,136 1,724 893 713 180 62.5 41.7 68.2 77.7 83.3 87.0 86.7 70.8 24.6 45.8 8.6 63.6 42.1 68.9 79.2 84.2 87.9 87.8 71.7 24.5 45.9 8.7 64.6 42.7 69.5 80.6 84.9 88.9 88.7 72.4 24.5 46.2 8.6 65.3 43.2 70.1 81.9 85.7 89.8 89.6 73.1 24.5 46.5 8.5 65.8 43.6 70.6 83.1 86.4 90.7 90.4 73.7 24.5 46.8 8.5 W hite Black and o th e r 55 A-3. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, low growth path (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r ............. 16 to 2 4 ................................... 20 and over ............................ 25 to 5 4 ................................... 55 and over ............................ 115,649 23,014 107,876 78,166 14,469 116,973 22,622 109,157 80,122 14,229 118,161 22,118 110,372 82,033 14,010 119,334 21,615 111,679 83,947 13,772 120,349 21,129 113,029 85,658 13,562 64.2 68.3 65.0 80.8 29.1 64.2 68.1 65.0 81.0 28.4 64.3 68.2 65.1 81.2 27.8 64.4 68.5 65.1 81.4 27.2 64.5 68.7 65.2 81.6 26.6 Men, 16 and o v e r .................. 16 to 24 .............................. 16 to 19 .......................... 16 and 1 7 ................... 18 and 1 9 ................... 20 and over ........................ 20 to 24 .......................... 25 to 54 .............................. 25 to 34 .......................... 25 to 29 ...................... 30 to 3 4 ...................... 35 to 44 .......................... 35 to 39 ...................... 40 to 44 ...................... 45 to 54 .......................... 45 to 49 ...................... 50 to 54 ...................... 55 and over ........................ 55 to 64 .......................... 55 to 59 ...................... 60 to 64 ...................... 60 and 61 ............... 62 to 6 4 .................. 65 and o v e r.................... 65 to 69 ...................... 70 to 74 ...................... 70 and 71 ............... 72 to 7 4 .................. 75 and o v e r................ 64,464 12,042 4,081 1,751 2,330 60,383 7,961 43,939 18,860 9,823 9,037 15,252 8,723 6,529 9,827 5,325 4,502 8,483 6,705 4,084 2,621 1,357 1,264 1,778 1,036 464 222 242 278 64,915 11,784 4,097 1,774 2,323 60,818 7,687 44,833 19,074 9,797 9,277 15,756 8,670 7,086 10,003 5,493 4,510 8,298 6,534 3,984 2,550 1,321 1,229 1,764 1,036 451 214 237 277 65,311 11,475 4,078 1,688 2,390 61,233 7,397 45,709 19,182 9,747 9,435 16,181 8,831 7,350 10,346 5,800 4,546 8,127 6,384 3,894 2,490 1,295 1,195 1,743 1,029 439 209 230 275 65,701 11,167 4,000 1,574 2,426 61,701 7,167 46,587 19,229 9,650 9,579 16,722 9,022 7,700 10,636 6,017 4,619 7,947 6,228 3,811 2,417 1,263 1,154 1,719 1,018 429 207 272 66,006 10,871 3,813 1,516 2,297 62,193 7,058 47,348 19,141 9,437 9,704 17,302 9,229 8,073 10,905 6,198 4,707 7,787 6,094 3,737 2,357 1,249 1,108 1,693 1,005 418 204 214 270 75.5 72.6 57.5 47.0 69.2 77.2 84.0 93.1 92.8 92.8 92.8 95.4 96.3 94.1 90.2 92.6 87.6 39.3 65.6 78.2 52.5 65.9 43.1 15.7 25.1 14.6 16.0 13.5 6.9 75.2 72.1 57.2 46.9 68.9 76.8 83.8 92.8 92.5 92.5 92.5 95.2 96.2 94.0 90.0 92.4 87.2 38.3 64.7 77.6 51.3 65.0 41.8 15.2 24.5 14.1 15.5 13.0 6.7 75.0 72.0 57.6 46.7 68.8 76.5 83.6 92.6 92.2 92.2 92.2 95.0 96.0 93.8 89.8 92.2 86.8 37.2 63.8 77.0 50.2 64.2 40.7 14.8 24.0 13.6 14.9 12.5 6.4 74.8 72.0 57.9 46.6 68.7 76.2 83.4 92.4 91.9 92.0 91.9 94.8 95.8 93.7 89.6 92.1 86.5 36.3 62.9 76.5 49.2 63.4 39.5 14.3 23.5 13.1 14.4 12.0 6.2 74.6 72.0 57.6 46.5 68.4 76.0 83.3 92.2 91.7 91.7 91.6 94.7 95.7 93.5 89.3 91.9 86.2 35.3 62.2 76.0 48.3 62.6 38.4 13.8 23.0 12.6 13.9 11.5 6.0 Women, 16 and o v e r............. 16 to 24 .............................. 16 to 19 .......................... 16 and 1 7 ................... 18 and 1 9 ................... 20 and o v e r ........................ 20 to 24 .......................... 25 to 54 .............................. 25 to 34 .......................... 25 to 29 ...................... 30 to 34 ...................... 35 to 44 .......................... 35 to 39 ...................... 40 to 44 ...................... 45 to 54 .......................... 45 to 49 ...................... 50 to 54 ...................... 55 and o v e r ........................ 55 to 64 .......................... 55 to 59 ...................... 60 to 64 ...................... 60 and 61 ............... 62 to 6 4 .................. 65 and o v e r..................... 65 to 69 ...................... 70 to 74 ...................... 70 and 71 ............... 72 to 7 4 .................. 75 and over ................ 51,185 10,972 3,692 1,526 2,166 47,493 7,280 34,227 14,959 7,843 7,116 11,959 6,721 5,238 7,309 3,989 3,320 5,986 4,754 2,889 1,865 914 951 1,232 764 322 145 177 146 52,058 10,838 3,719 1,547 2,172 48,339 7,119 35,289 15,313 7,909 7,404 12,494 6,756 5,738 7,482 4,129 3,353 5,931 4,683 2,838 1,845 897 948 1,248 781 321 142 179 146 52,850 10,643 3,711 1,473 2,238 49,139 6,932 36,324 15,579 7,959 7,620 12,966 6,954 6,012 7,779 4,372 3,407 5,883 4,623 2,792 1,831 885 946 1,260 792 322 143 179 146 53,633 10,448 3,655 1,379 2,276 49,978 6,793 37,360 15,789 7,973 7,816 13,532 7,176 6,356 8,039 4,551 3,488 5,825 4,558 2,750 1,808 870 938 1,267 800 323 145 178 144 54,343 10,258 3,507 1,331 2,176 50,836 6,751 38,310 15,893 7,903 7,990 14,132 7,409 6,723 8,285 4,701 3,584 5,775 4,501 2,713 1,788 862 926 1,274 806 325 147 178 143 54.0 64.1 51.9 42.2 61.8 54.2 72.8 69.1 70.9 71.8 70.0 71.2 70.8 71.6 62.7 65.4 59.8 21.3 40.7 49.5 31.9 38.6 27.4 7.5 14.8 7.4 7.9 7.0 2.1 54.3 64.2 51.9 42.2 62.0 54.5 73.4 69.8 71.7 72.6 70.8 72.0 71.6 72.4 63.0 65.6 60.1 20.9 40.6 49.6 31.8 38.5 27.3 7.4 14.8 7.3 7.8 7.0 2.0 54.7 64.6 52.3 42.1 62.2 55.0 65.1 52.8 42.1 62.4 55.3 65.6 52.8 42.1 62.5 54.8 55.2 55.5 73.9 70.4 72.5 73.4 71.6 72.7 72.4 73.1 63.3 65.7 60.3 20.6 40.5 49.6 31.7 38.3 27.3 7.3 14.8 7.3 7.7 7.0 2.0 74.5 71.0 73.2 74.1 72.3 73.5 73.1 73.8 63.5 65.9 60.7 20.2 40.5 49.7 31.6 38.1 27.3 7.2 14.7 7.2 7.7 6.9 1.9 75.0 71.5 73.9 74.8 73.0 74.2 73.8 74.5 63.7 66.0 60.9 19.9 40.5 49.7 31.6 38.0 27.3 7.1 14.7 7.2 7.6 6.9 1.8 222 56 A-3. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, low growth path—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r.......... 100,395 101,394 102,267 103,121 103,841 64.5 64.6 64.7 64.8 64.9 Men, 16 and o v e r ............... 56,775 57,106 57,382 57,648 57,843 76.4 76.2 75.9 75.8 75.6 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ....................... 20 and o v e r..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ........................... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and over ..................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. 10,496 3,619 53,156 6,877 38,546 16,377 13,419 8,750 7,733 6,093 1,640 10,276 3,634 53,472 6,642 39,268 16,526 13,840 8,902 7,562 5,932 1,630 10,009 3,617 53,765 6,392 39,973 16,585 14,179 9,209 7,400 5,787 1,613 9,740 3,549 54,099 6,191 40,676 16,589 14,622 9,465 7,232 5,638 1,594 9,482 3,382 54,461 6,100 41,281 16,479 15,097 9,705 7,080 5,507 1,573 75.5 61.5 77.7 85.8 94.2 94.1 96.1 91.5 39.8 66.4 16.0 75.2 61.3 77.4 85.8 94.0 93.9 96.0 91.3 38.7 65.5 15.5 75.2 61.8 77.1 85.8 93.8 93.7 95.8 91.1 37.7 64.6 15.1 75.4 62.3 76.9 85.8 93.6 93.5 95.7 90.9 36.7 63.8 14.7 75.5 62.1 76.6 85.8 93.5 93.3 95.6 90.7 35.8 63.0 14.2 Women, 16 and o v e r.......... 43,620 44,288 44,885 45,473 45,998 53.7 54.0 54.3 54.7 55.0 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ....................... 20 and over ..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ................ ........... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and over ..................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. 9,442 3,257 40,363 6,185 28,951 12,498 10,161 6,292 5,227 4,138 1,089 9,312 3,276 41,012 6,036 29,811 12,773 10,601 6,437 5,165 4,064 1,101 9,130 3,266 41,619 5,864 30,646 12,973 10,979 6,694 5,109 3,999 1,110 8,944 3,212 42,261 5,732 31,483 13,128 11,438 6,917 5,046 3,930 1,116 8,766 3,077 42,921 5,689 32,244 13,189 11,928 7,127 4,988 3,869 1,119 66.8 55.7 53.5 74.7 68.9 70.8 70.8 62.7 20.8 40.2 7.4 67.0 55.7 53.9 75.3 69.6 71.6 71.7 63.1 20.4 40.1 7.3 67.4 56.2 54.2 75.9 70.2 72.4 72.5 63.4 20.1 40.0 7.2 68.0 56.7 54.6 76.5 70.9 73.2 73.3 63.7 19.7 39.9 7.1 68.5 56.8 54.9 77.1 71.5 73.9 74.1 63.9 19.4 39.9 7.0 Total, 16 and o v e r.......... 15,254 15,579 15,894 16,213 16,508 62.0 61.9 62.0 62.0 62.1 Men, 16 and over ............... 7,689 7,809 7,929 8,053 8,163 69.4 68.9 68.6 68.4 68.2 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ....................... 20 and over ..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ........................... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and over ....................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. 1,546 462 7,227 1,084 5,393 2,483 T833 1,077 750 612 138 1,508 463 7,346 1,045 5,565 2,548 1^916 1,101 736 602 134 1,466 461 7,468 1,005 5,736 2,597 2'002 1,137 727 597 130 1,427 451 7,602 976 5,911 2,640 2’100 1,171 715 590 125 1,389 431 7,732 958 6,067 2,662 2 ’205 1,200 707 587 120 57.8 38.3 73.2 73.8 85.9 85.0 90.1 81.3 35.3 58.5 12.8 56.6 37.6 72.8 72.8 85.4 84.4 89.7 80.8 34.3 57.6 12.2 55.8 37.5 72.3 71.9 84.9 83.7 89.5 80.4 33.4 56.8 11.6 55.2 37.3 71.9 71.0 84.5 83.2 89.1 79.9 32.5 56.0 10.9 54.7 36.7 71.6 70.2 84.1 82.6 88.9 79.5 31.8 55.4 10.3 Women, 16 and o v e r.......... 7,565 7,770 7,965 8,160 8,345 55.9 56.2 56.5 56.9 57.2 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ....................... 20 and over ..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ........................... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and over ..................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. 1,530 435 7,130 1,095 5,276 2,461 1,798 1,017 759 616 143 1,526 443 7,327 1,083 5.478 2,540 1,893 1,045 766 619 147 1,513 445 7,520 1,068 5,678 2,606 1,987 1,085 774 624 150 1,504 443 7,717 1,061 5,877 2,661 2,094 1,122 779 628 151 1,492 430 7,915 1,062 6,066 2,704 2,204 1,158 787 632 155 51.2 34.4 58.1 63.6 70.2 71.8 73.0 62.5 25.0 44.7 8.6 51.2 34.4 58.4 64.1 70.6 72.4 73.4 62.6 24.8 44.6 8.6 51.5 34.6 58.7 64.6 71.0 72.9 73.9 62.6 24.5 44.4 8.5 52.0 35.0 59.0 65.1 71.3 73.4 74.3 62.6 24.2 44.4 8.4 52.4 35.0 59.2 65.6 71.7 73.9 74.7 62.6 23.9 44.3 8.3 W hite Black and oth er 57 A-3. Civilian labor fore© and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, tow growth path—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total, 16 and o v e r............. 16 to 2 4 ................................... 20 and over ............................ 25 to 5 4 ................................... 55 and over ............................ 121,378 20,839 114,388 87,150 13,389 122,265 20,547 115,420 88,486 13,232 123,180 20,366 116,342 89,661 13,153 124,095 20,083 117,197 90,881 13,131 125,053 19,805 118,063 92,094 13,154 64.5 68.9 65.2 81.8 26.1 64.5 68.9 65.2 81.9 25.6 64.5 68.9 65.2 82.0 25.3 64.5 68.7 65.2 82.1 25.0 64.5 68.5 65.2 82.2 24.9 Men, 16 and over .................. 16 to 24 .............................. 16 to 19 .......................... 16 and 1 7 ................... 18 and 1 9 ................... 20 and over ........................ 20 to 24 .......................... 25 to 54 .............................. 25 to 34 .......................... 25 to 29 ...................... 30 to 34 ...................... 35 to 44 .......................... 35 to 39 ...................... 40 to 44 ...................... 45 to 54 .......................... 45 to 49 ...................... 50 to 54 ...................... 55 and o v e r ........................ 55 to 64 .......................... 55 to 59 ...................... 60 to 64 ...................... 60 and 61 ............... 62 to 6 4 .................. 65 and o v e r.................... 65 to 6 9 ...................... 70 to 74 ...................... 70 and 71 ............... 72 to 7 4 .................. 75 and o v e r................ 66,318 10,680 3,628 1,502 2,126 62,690 7,052 47,989 18,931 9,093 9,838 17,911 9,407 8,504 11,147 6,329 4,818 7,649 5,985 3,700 2,285 1,218 1,067 1,664 984 413 203 210 267 66,587 10,491 3,544 1,504 2,040 63,043 6,947 48,572 18,616 8,800 9,816 18,130 9,673 8,457 11,826 6,862 4,964 7,524 5,893 3,700 2,193 1,159 1,034 1,631 962 406 199 207 263 66,879 10,364 3,535 1,515 2,020 63,344 6,829 49,068 18,249 8,483 9,766 18,469 9,854 8,615 12,350 7,114 5,236 7,447 5,844 3,723 2,121 1,126 995 1,603 944 397 192 205 262 67,182 10,184 3,560 1,537 2,023 63,622 6,624 49,594 17,901 8,229 9,672 18,821 10,019 8,802 12,872 7,445 5,427 7,404 5,836 3,777 2,059 1,110 949 1,568 922 386 184 202 260 67,536 10,013 3,606 1,566 2,040 63,930 6,407 50,130 17,573 8,108 9,465 19,170 10,166 9,004 13,387 7,802 5,585 7,393 5,855 3,847 2,008 1,102 906 1,538 903 376 180 196 259 74.4 71.9 57.0 46.4 68.0 75.7 83.1 92.0 91.4 91.5 91.3 94.5 95.5 93.4 89.1 91.7 85.9 34.5 61.5 75.5 47.3 61.9 37.3 13.4 22.5 12.1 13.4 11.1 5.8 74.1 71.7 56.6 46.3 67.8 75.4 83.0 91.8 91.1 91.2 91.0 94.4 95.4 93.2 89.0 91.6 85.6 33.8 60.9 75.0 46.2 61.2 36.3 13.0 22.1 11.6 12.9 10.7 5.6 73.9 71.4 56.4 46.2 67.6 75.2 82.8 91.5 90.9 91.0 90.8 94.2 95.3 93.1 88.7 91.4 85.3 33.2 60.4 74.5 45.3 60.5 35.3 12.6 21.7 11.2 12.4 10.3 5.4 73.7 71.0 56.3 46.2 67.5 75.0 82.7 91.3 90.6 90.7 90.5 94.1 95.1 93.0 88.5 91.2 85.1 32.8 60.1 74.1 44.6 59.9 34.4 12.2 21.4 10.8 11.9 9.9 5.3 73.5 70.6 56.1 46.1 67.3 74.8 82.5 91.2 90.4 90.5 90.3 94.0 95.0 92.9 88.3 91.0 84.8 32.5 59.8 73.7 44.0 59.2 33.6 11.8 21.1 10.4 11.6 9.5 5.1 Women, 16 and o v e r............. 16 to 24 .............................. 16 to 19 .......................... 16 and 1 7 ................... 18 and 1 9 ................... 20 and o v e r ........................ 20 to 24 .......................... 25 to 54 .............................. 25 to 34 .......................... 25 to 29 ...................... 30 to 34 ...................... 35 to 44 .......................... 35 to 39 ...................... 40 to 44 ...................... 45 to 54 .......................... 45 to 49 ...................... 50 to 54 ...................... 55 and over ........................ 55 to 64 .......................... 55 to 59 ...................... 60 to 64 ...................... 60 and 61 ............... 62 to 6 4 .................. 65 and o v e r.................... 65 to 69 ...................... 70 to 74 ...................... 70 and 71 ............... 72 to 7 4 .................. 75 and o v e r................ 55,060 10,159 3,362 1,322 2,040 51,698 6,797 39,161 15,883 7,717 8,166 14,769 7,624 7,145 8,509 4,817 3,692 5,740 4,466 2,702 1,764 851 913 1,274 804 329 150 179 141 55,678 10,056 3,301 1,328 1,973 52,377 6,755 39,914 15,778 7,558 8,220 15,076 7,912 7,164 9,060 5,231 3,829 5,708 4,439 2,718 1,721 814 907 1,269 798 332 151 181 139 56,301 10,002 3,303 1,339 1,964 52,998 6,699 40,593 15,625 7,370 8,255 15,474 8,122 7,352 9,494 5,434 4,060 5,706 4,440 2,750 1,690 795 895 1,266 794 335 150 185 137 56,913 9,899 3,338 1,360 1,978 53,575 6,561 41,287 15,483 7,230 8,253 15,874 8,308 7,566 9,930 5,699 4,231 5,727 4,467 2,804 1,663 789 874 1,260 786 338 149 189 136 57,517 9,792 3,384 1,386 1,998 54,133 6,408 41,964 15,347 7,186 8,161 16,260 8,470 7,790 10,357 5,981 4,376 5,761 4,509 2,869 1,640 787 853 1,252 778 340 149 191 134 55.7 66.0 52.5 42.1 62.6 55.9 75.5 72.1 74.6 75.5 73.7 74.8 74.5 75.2 63.9 66.2 61.2 19.7 40.5 49.8 31.5 37.9 27.2 7.0 14.7 7.1 7.5 6.8 1.7 55.9 66.2 52.4 42.1 62.7 56.1 76.0 72.5 75.2 76.2 74.3 75.5 75.2 75.8 64.2 66.3 61.5 19.4 40.5 49.8 31.3 37.7 27.2 6.9 14.7 7.0 7.4 6.7 1.7 56.1 66.4 52.4 42.1 62.8 56.3 76.5 72.9 75.8 76.8 75.0 76.1 75.8 76.4 64.4 66.5 61.7 19.3 40.6 49.8 31.3 37.6 27.2 6.8 14.7 6.9 7.3 6.7 1.6 56.3 66.4 52.4 42.1 63.0 56.5 76.9 73.3 76.4 77.4 75.5 76.7 76.4 77.0 64.5 66.6 62.0 19.2 40.8 49.8 31.2 37.5 27.1 6.7 14.7 6.9 7.3 6.6 1.6 56.5 66.4 52.4 42.1 63.1 56.7 77.3 73.6 76.9 77.9 76.1 77.2 76.9 77.5 84.7 66.7 62.2 19.1 41.0 49.9 31.2 37.4 27.1 6.5 14.6 6.9 7.2 6.6 1.5 58 A -3. Civilian lab or fore© and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, low growth path—Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Sex, age, and race 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total, 16 and o v e r.......... 104,576 105,193 105,838 106,481 107,165 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.0 65.0 Men, 16 and o v e r ............... 58,046 58,211 58,397 58,593 58,834 75.4 75.2 74.9 74.8 74.6 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ....................... 20 and over ..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ........................... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and over ..................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and o v e r................. 9,316 3,224 54,822 6,092 41,782 16,264 15,600 9,918 6,948 5,400 1,548 9,153 3,154 55,057 5,999 42,234 15,959 15,748 10,527 6,824 5,307 1,517 9,047 3,151 55,246 5,896 42,609 15,611 16,008 10,990 6,741 5,254 1,487 8,900 3,177 55,416 5,723 43,001 15,283 16,269 11,449 6,692 5,239 1,453 8,755 3,223 55,611 5,532 43,406 14,982 16,527 11,897 6,673 5,250 1,423 75.6 61.6 76.4 85.8 93.3 93.1 95.4 90.5 34.9 62.4 13.8 75.5 61.4 76.2 85.8 93.2 92.9 95.3 90.4 34.2 61.8 13.3 75.3 -61.3 75.9 85.8 93.0 92.8 95.3 90.2 33.6 61.3 12.9 75.0 61.2 75.7 85.8 92.8 92.6 95.2 90.0 33.1 61.0 12.5 74.7 61.2 75.5 85.8 92.7 92.4 95.1 89.9 32.8 60.8 12.1 Women, 16 and o v e r.......... 46,530 46,982 47,441 47,888 48,331 55.3 55.6 55.8 56.0 56.2 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ....................... 20 and over ..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ........................... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and o v e r ..................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and o v e r................. 8,664 2,948 43,582 5,716 32,920 13,155 12,448 7,317 4,946 3,828 1,118 8,563 2,893 44,089 5,670 33,512 13,040 12,679 7,793 4,907 3,795 1,112 8,508 2,895 44,546 5,613 34,041 12,883 12,996 8,162 4,892 3,786 1,106 8,415 2,924 44,964 5,491 34,574 12,735 13,308 8,531 4,899 3,802 1,097 8,316 2,965 45,366 5,351 35,097 12,601 13,608 8,888 4,918 3,831 1,087 68.9 56.6 55.3 77.6 72.1 74.6 74.8 64.2 19.1 39.9 6.9 69.2 56.5 55.5 78.2 72.5 75.3 75.5 64.4 18.9 40.0 '6.8 69.4 56.5 55.7 78.6 73.0 76.0 76.2 64.6 18.7 40.1 6.6 69.5 56.5 56.0 79.1 73.4 76.6 76.8 64.8 18.6 40.2 6.5 69.5 56.5 56.1 79.6 73.8 77.2 77.4 65.0 18.6 40.4 6.4 Total, 16 and o v e r.......... 16,802 17,072 17,342 17,614 17,888 62.1 62.1 62.0 62.0 61.9 Men, 16 and o v e r ............... 8,272 8,376 8,482 8,589 8,702 67.8 67.6 67.3 67.0 66.7 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ........................ 20 and over ..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ........................... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ..... .................. 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and over ..................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. 1,364 404 7,868 960 6,207 2,667 2,311 1,229 701 585 116 1,338 390 7,986 948 6,338 2,657 2,382 1,299 700 586 114 1,317 384 8,098 933 6,459 2,638 2,461 1,360 706 590 116 1,284 383 8,206 901 6,593 2,618 2,552 1,423 712 597 115 1,258 383 8,319 875 6,724 2,591 2,643 1,490 720 605 115 54.1 35.5 71.2 69.5 83.7 82.1 88.6 79.0 31.0 54.6 9.8 53.5 34.8 70.8 68.7 83.3 81.6 88.3 78.7 30.6 54.0 9.5 52.7 34.1 70.5 68.0 82.9 81.0 88.1 78.3 30.4 53.4 9.5 51.8 33.6 70.2 67.2 82.6 80.6 87.9 78.0 30.1 53.0 9.3 50.9 33.2 70.0 66.5 82.3 80.1 87.7 77.6 29.9 52.7 9.1 Women, 16 and o v e r.......... 8,530 8,696 8,860 9,025 9,186 57.5 57.6 57.8 57.9 58.0 16 to 24 ........................... 16 to 19 ....................... 20 and o v e r ..................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ........................... 25 to 34 ....................... 35 to 44 ....................... 45 to 54 ....................... 55 and o v e r ..................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. 1,495 414 8,116 1,081 6,241 2,728 2,321 1,192 794 638 156 1,493 408 8,288 1,085 6,402 2,738 2,397 1,267 801 644 157 1,494 408 8,452 1,086 6,552 2,742 2,478 1,332 814 654 160 1,484 414 8,611 1,070 6,713 2,748 2,566 1,399 828 665 163 1,476 419 8,767 1,057 6,867 2,746 2,652 1,469 843 678 165 52.9 34.8 59.4 66.1 72.0 74.3 75.1 62.6 23.7 44.2 8.2 53.2 34.7 59.6 66.5 72.3 74.7 75.4 62.8 23.4 44.2 8.0 53.3 34.5 59.7 67.0 72.5 75.1 75.8 62.7 23.3 44.2 7.9 53.3 34.6 59.8 67.4 72.7 75.5 76.1 62.8 23.2 44.3 7.9 53.2 34.6 59.9 67.8 72.9 75.9 76.4 62.8 23.1 44.5 7.8 Whit© Black and oth er 59 A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and growth path, 1986-95 (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Growth path, sex, and age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r ................................. 12,476 12,767 13,040 13,324 13,600 62.6 62.9 63.2 63.7 64.1 Men, 16 and o v e r ...................................... 6,245 6,358 6,464 6,577 6,687 70.1 70.0 70.1 70.2 70.4 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 19 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r........................................ 1,296 369 5,876 927 4,323 2,071 1,404 848 626 505 121 1,262 370 5,988 892 4,480 2,143 1,473 864 616 497 119 1,223 367 6,097 856 4,635 2,200 1,542 893 606 490 116 1,187 358 6,219 829 4,791 2,250 1,624 917 599 485 114 1,156 346 6,341 810 4,939 2,286 1,712 941 592 481 111 58.2 36.8 74.3 75.8 87.6 88.4 89.8 82.3 35.8 59.3 13.5 57.1 36.3 74.3 75.0 87.5 88.3 89.8 82.3 35.1 58.8 13.1 56.5 36.3 74.2 74.2 87.5 88.1 89.8 82.3 34.4 58.3 12.6 56.1 36.3 74.2 73.4 87.4 87.9 89.8 82.3 33.8 57.9 12.2 55.9 36.3 74.1 72.7 87.4 87.8 89.8 82.3 33.2 57.5 11.7 Women, 16 and over ................................ 6,231 6,409 6,576 6,747 6,913 56.5 57.1 57.7 58.4 59.0 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 19 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and over ........................................ 1,262 358 5,873 904 4,353 2,056 1,461 836 616 505 111 1,256 363 6,046 893 4,536 2,132 1,542 862 617 505 112 1,239 360 6,216 879 4,716 2,197 1,623 896 621 506 115 1,223 351 6,396 872 4,899 2,254 1,719 926 625 507 118 1,210 340 6,573 870 5,073 2,296 1,821 956 630 509 121 50.4 33.7 58.9 62.6 72.6 74.1 76.0 64.2 24.4 44.6 8.0 50.5 33.7 59.5 63.3 73.4 75.0 76.9 64.8 24.1 44.5 7.8 50.8 33.7 60.2 64.0 74.2 75.9 77.7 65.2 23.9 44.5 7.9 51.2 33.7 60.8 64.7 74.9 76.7 78.6 65.6 23.7 44.6 7.9 51.8 33.7 61.4 65.5 75.7 77.5 79.4 66.0 23.6 44.6 7.9 Total, 16 and o v e r................................. 13,129 13,560 13,951 14,353 14,737 65.8 66.8 67.6 68.6 69.4 Men, 16 and o v e r ...................................... 6,540 6,731 6,909 7,093 7,269 73.4 74.1 74.9 75.7 76.5 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 19 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r........................................ 1,436 440 6,100 996 4,432 2,137 1,431 864 672 532 140 1,438 461 6,270 977 4,622 2,229 1,507 886 671 529 142 1,429 475 6,434 954 4,808 2,306 1,582 920 672 528 144 1,421 481 6,612 940 4,998 2,376 1,672 950 674 528 146 1,413 478 6,791 935 5,179 2,430 1,770 979 677 529 148 64.5 43.9 77.2 81.4 89.8 91.2 91.6 83.9 38.5 62.4 15.6 65.1 45.2 77.8 82.1 90.3 91.8 91.9 84.4 38.3 62.6 15.6 66.0 47.0 78.3 82.7 90.7 92.4 92.1 84.8 38.1 62.8 15.6 67.2 48.7 78.9 83.3 91.2 92.8 92.5 85.3 38.0 63.0 15.6 68.4 50.2 79.4 83.9 91.6 93.4 92.8 85.7 37.9 63.3 15.6 Women, 16 and over ................................ 6,589 6,829 7,042 7,260 7,468 59.7 60.8 61.8 62.8 63.7 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 19 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and over ........................................ 1,354 384 6,205 970 4,608 2,212 1,539 857 627 512 115 1,369 397 6,432 972 4,829 2,308 1,633 888 631 514 117 1,371 403 6,639 968 5,037 2,385 1,724 928 634 515 119 1,373 402 6,858 971 5,249 2,454 1,830 965 638 516 122 1,375 396 7,072 979 5,451 2,507 1,943 1,001 642 517 125 54.0 36.2 62.2 67.1 76.8 79.7 80.1 65.8 24.8 45.2 8.2 55.0 36.9 63.3 68.9 78.1 81.2 81.4 66.7 24.6 45.3 8.2 56.2 37.7 64.3 70.5 79.2 82.4 82.6 67.5 24.4 45.3 8.1 57.5 38.6 65.2 72.1 80.3 83.5 83.7 68.4 24.2 45.3 8.2 58.8 39.3 66.1 73.7 81.3 84.6 84.7 69.1 24.0 45.3 8.2 Middle High 60 A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by'age, sex, and growth path, 19®6"9i” Continu@d (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Growth path, sex, and age 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total, 16 and o v e r................................. 12,222 12,452 12,657 12,874 13,078 61.3 61.3 61.4 61.5 61.6 Men, 16 and o v e r ...................................... 6,126 6,207 6,279 6,359 6,431 68.8 68.4 68.1 67.9 67.7 16 to 24 ........................ ......................... 16 to 1 9 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 45 to 5 4 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r........................................ 1,280 362 5,764 918 4,241 2,028 1,387 826 605 490 115 1,244 362 5,845 882 4,373 2,087 1,450 836 590 479 111 1,200 356 5,923 844 4,502 2,130 1,513 859 577 470 107 1,161 345 6,014 816 4,634 2,169 1,588 877 564 462 102 1.122 326 6,105 796 4,756 2,191 1,670 895 553 455 98 57.5 36.1 72.9 75.1 85.9 86.6 88.7 80.2 34.6 57.5 12.8 56.3 35.5 72.5 74.1 85.4 86.0 88.4 79.6 33.7 56.7 12.2 55.4 35.2 72.1 73.1 85.0 85.3 88.1 79.2 32.7 55.9 11.6 54.9 35.0 71.7 72.3 84.5 84.8 87.8 78.7 31.8 55.1 10.9 54.3 34.2 71.4 71.5 84.1 84.2 87.6 78.3 31.0 54.4 10.3 Women, 16 and o v e r ................................ 6,096 6,245 6,378 6,515 6,647 55.3 55.6 56.0 56.4 56.7 16 to 2 4 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and o v e r............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r........................................ 1,252 352 5,744 900 4,232 2,005 1,416 811 612 503 109 1,243 357 5,888 886 4,388 2,071 1,487 830 614 502 112 1,223 354 6,024 869 4,539 2,125 1,557 857 616 501 115 1,205 346 6,169 859 4,691 2,171 1,640 880 619 502 117 1,188 334 6,313 854 4,835 2,203 1,729 903 624 504 120 50.0 33.2 57.6 62.3 70.6 72.3 73.7 62.3 24.2 44.4 7.8 50.0 33.2 58.0 62.8 71.0 72.8 74.1 62.4 24.0 44.3 7.8 50.1 33.1 58.3 63.3 71.4 73.4 74.6 62.4 23.7 44.1 7.9 50.4 33.2 58.7 63.8 71.8 73.9 75.0 62.4 23.5 44.1 7.8 50.8 33.1 59.0 64.3 72.1 74.4 75.4 62.4 23.3 44.2 7.8 Low _____ 61 A -4. Black civilian lab o r fo rc e a nd participation rates by age, sex, and g ro w th path, 1986-95— C ontinued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Growth path, sex, and age 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total, 16 and o v e r................................. 13,877 14,119 14,361 14,593 14,833 64.5 64.8 65.0 65.2 65.4 Men, 16 and o v e r ...................................... 6,800 6,895 6,990 7,086 7,187 70.5 70.6 70.5 70.5 70.5 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 3 4 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r........................................ 1,140 332 6,468 808 5,073 2,302 1,807 964 587 479 108 1,121 326 6,569 795 5,190 2,301 1,870 1,019 584 478 106 1,105 326 6,664 779 5,304 2,293 1,941 1,070 581 478 103 1,077 329 6,757 748 5,428 2,281 2,024 1,123 581 481 100 1,055 333 6,854 722 5,549 2,261 2,109 1,179 583 485 98 56.0 36.3 74.1 72.1 87.3 87.7 89.8 82.3 32.6 57.2 11.2 55.7 36.3 74.0 71.4 87.2 87.5 89.8 82.3 32.3 56.9 10.9 55.3 36.3 74.0 70.9 87.1 87.3 89.8 82.3 31.8 56.6 10.5 54.6 36.3 73.9 70.2 87.1 87.2 89.8 82.3 31.5 56.3 10.1 54.0 36.3 73.9 69.6 87.0 87.1 89.8 82.3 31.3 56.2 9.8 Women, 16 and o v e r ................................ 7,077 7,224 7,371 7,507 7,646 59.6 60.1 60.5 60.9 61.2 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 19 .............................................. 20 and over ............................................ 20 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 45 to 54 ..................................... ......... 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r....................................... . 1,210 327 6,750 883 5,234 2,323 1,929 982 633 510 123 1,206 321 6,903 885 5,379 2,333 2,005 1,041 639 513 126 1,205 322 7,049 883 5,521 2,340 2,086 1,095 645 517 128 1,189 324 7,183 865 5,665 2,343 2,171 1,151 653 522 131 1,180 328 7,318 852 5,805 2,338 2,257 1,210 661 527 134 52.5 33.7 61.9 66.1 76.4 78.3 80.2 66.4 23.3 44.6 7.8 52.9 33.6 62.4 66.8 77.0 79.1 81.0 66.8 23.2 44.6 7.9 53.2 33.7 62.8 67.5 77.6 79.8 81.7 67.1 23.1 44.6 7.8 53.2 33.7 63.2 68.0 78.1 80.5 82.4 67.5 23.0 44.6 7.9 53.2 33.7 63.6 68.5 78.6 81.1 83.0 67.8 22.9 44.5 7.9 Total, 16 and o v e r................................. 15,126 15,476 15,832 16,174 16,517 70.3 71.0 71.7 72.3 72.8 Men, 16 and o v e r ...................................... 7,448 7,612 7,783 7,953 8,125 77.2 77.9 78.5 79.1 79.7 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 1 9 .............................................. 20 and o v e r............................................ 20 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and o v e r............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r........................................ 1,417 469 6,979 948 5,348 2,465 1,874 1,009 683 533 150 1,421 472 7,140 949 5,502 2,484 1,946 1,072 689 538 151 1,431 486 7,297 945 5,655 2,494 2,028 1,133 697 544 153 1,429 505 7,448 924 5,815 2,497 2,123 1,195 709 554 155 1,432 525 7,600 907 5,974 2,492 2,220 1,262 719 563 156 69.6 51.3 80.0 84.6 92.1 93.9 93.1 86.2 38.0 63.7 15.6 70.7 52.6 80.5 85.3 92.5 94.4 93.5 86.6 38.1 64.0 15.6 71.6 54.1 81.0 86.0 92.9 95.0 93.8 87.2 38.2 64.4 15.6 72.4 55.7 81.4 86.7 93.3 95.5 94.2 87.6 38.4 64.9 15.6 73.2 57.3 81.9 87.4 93.7 96.0 94.5 88.1 38.6 65.2 15.6 Women, 16 and over ................................ 7,678 7,864 8,049 8,221 8,392 64.7 65.5 66.1 66 7 67.2 16 to 24 .... .............................................. 16 to 1 9 .............................................. 20 and o v e r............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 54 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r......................................... 1,390 385 7,293 1,005 5,642 2,544 2,063 1,035 646 518 128 1,399 383 7,481 1,016 5,813 2,559 2,150 1,104 652 522 130 1,411 388 7,661 1,023 5,979 2,571 2,241 1,167 659 526 133 1,407 396 7,825 1,011 6,148 2,580 2,337 1,231 666 530 136 1,407 405 7,987 1,002 6,311 2,579 2,432 1,300 674 536 138 60.3 39.7 66.9 75.3 82.3 85.7 85.8 69.9 23.8 45.3 8.2 61.4 40.1 67.6 76.7 83.2 86.7 86.8 70.8 23.7 45.4 8.1 62.3 40.6 68.3 78.2 84.0 87.7 87.7 71.6 23.6 45.3 8.1 63.0 41.2 68.9 79.5 84.8 88.6 88.7 72.2 23.5 45.3 8.2 63.5 41.6 69.4 80.6 85.4 89.5 89.4 72.9 23.4 45.3 8.1 M iddle High 62 A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and growth path, 1986-95— Continued (Numbers in thousands) Civilian labor force Labor force participation rate Number Percent Growth path, sex, and age 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total, 16 and o v e r................................. 13,284 13,456 13,636 13,808 13,987 61.8 61.8 61.7 61.7 61.7 Men, 16 and o v e r ...................................... 6,507 6,568 6,633 6,703 6,773 67.5 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.4 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 19 .............................................. 20 and o v e r ............................................ 20 to 2 4 .............................................. 25 to 54 .................................................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 4 4 .............................................. 45 to 5 4 .............................................. 55 and over ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and o v e r........................................ 1,098 305 6,202 793 4,864 2,196 1,756 912 545 450 95 1,071 292 6,276 779 4,958 2,187 1,811 960 539 446 93 1,048 287 6,346 761 5,047 2,169 1,875 1,003 538 444 94 1,015 285 6,418 730 5,148 2,149 1,951 1,048 540 445 95 986 283 6,490 703 5,244 2,121 2,028 1,095 543 447 96 53.9 33.3 71.1 70.7 83.7 83.7 87.3 77.9 30.3 53.8 9.9 53.3 32.5 70.7 70.0 83.3 83.2 87.0 77.5 29.8 53.1 9.6 52.5 31.9 70.4 69.2 82.9 82.6 86.8 77.2 29.5 52.5 9.6 51.4 31.4 70.2 68.5 82.6 82.1 86.6 76.8 29.3 52.1 9.6 50.4 30.9 70.0 67.7 82.2 81.7 86.4 76.5 29.1 51.8 9.6 Women, 16 and over ................................ 6,777 6,888 7,003 7,105 7,214 57.1 57.3 57.5 57.7 57.8 16 to 24 .................................................. 16 to 19 .............................................. 20 and o v e r ............................................ 20 to 24 .............................................. 25 to 54 ..................... ............................. 25 to 34 .............................................. 35 to 44 .............................................. 45 to 5 4 .............................................. 55 and o v e r ............................................ 55 to 5 9 .......................................... 65 and over ........................................ 1,186 322 6,455 864 4,963 2,218 1,822 923 628 505 123 1,179 316 6,572 863 5,076 2,218 1,885 973 633 508 125 1,176 317 6,686 859 5,187 2,216 1,953 1,018 640 512 128 1,159 319 6,786 840 5,300 2,212 2,024 1,064 646 516 130 1,149 323 6,891 826 5,410 2,201 2,096 1,113 655 522 133 51.5 33.2 59.2 64.7 72.4 74.8 75.8 62.4 23.2 44.1 7.8 51.8 33.1 59.4 65.2 72.7 75.2 76.1 62.4 23.0 44.1 7.8 51.9 33.2 59.6 65.6 72.9 75.6 76.5 62.4 22.9 44.1 7.8 51.9 33.2 59.7 66.0 73.1 76.0 76.8 62.4 22.8 44.1 7.8 51.8 33.2 59.9 66.5 73.2 76.3 77.1 62.4 22.7 44.1 7.8 Low 63 A-5. Labor force and participation rates by sex and growth path, 1988-95 (Numbers in thousands) Growth path and year Labor force Participation rate Number Percent Total Men Women Total Men Women M iddle 1 9 8 6 ...................................... 1987 ...................................... 1 9 8 8 ...................................... 1989 ...................................... 1990 ...................................... 1991 ...................................... 1992 ...................................... 1 9 9 3 ...................................... 1 9 9 4 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 120,314 122,049 123,635 125,191 126,577 127,974 129,210 130,484 131,730 133,018 66,941 67,575 68,146 68,701 69,162 69,629 70,048 70,494 70,942 71,436 53,373 54,474 55,489 56,490 57,415 58,345 59,162 59,990 60,788 61,582 66.1 66.4 66.6 66.9 67.2 67.4 67.6 67.7 67.9 68.0 77.0 76.9 76.8 76.8 76.8 58.9 76.6 76.5 76.4 76.4 56.2 56.7 57.3 57.9 58.4 58.9 59.3 59.7 60.0 60.3 124,057 126,504 128,786 131,046 133,097 135,166 137,066 138,983 140,863 142,751 68,134 69,010 69,818 70,609 71,287 71,977 72,612 73,269 73,924 74,618 55,923 57,494 58,968 60,437 61,810 63,189 64,454 65,714 66,939 68,133 68.2 68.8 69.4 70.0 70.6 71.2 71.7 72.1 72.6 73.0 78.4 78.5 78.7 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.6 79.8 58.9 59.9 60.9 61.9 62.8 63.8 64.6 65.4 66.1 66.8 117,414 118,751 119,939 121,112 122,127 123,156 124,043 124,958 125,873 126,831 66,069 66,528 66,924 67,314 67,619 67,931 68,200 68,492 68,795 69,149 51,345 52,223 53,015 53,798 54,508 55,225 55,843 56,466 57,078 57,682 64.5 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.8 64.9 64.9 64.9 64.8 64.8 76.0 75.7 75.4 75.2 75.0 74.8 74.6 74.3 74.1 73.9 54.1 54.4 54.7 55.1 55.4 55.7 56.0 56.2 56.4 56.5 High 1986 ...................................... 1987 ...................................... 1 9 8 8 ...................................... 1989 ...................................... 1 9 9 0 ...................................... 1991 ...................................... 1 9 9 2 ...................................... 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... Low 1 9 8 6 ...................................... 1987 ...................................... 1988 ...................................... 1989 ...................................... 1990 ...................................... 1991 ...................................... 1 9 9 2 ...................................... 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... NOTE: Includes the resident Armed Forces. 64 i- 1 . Va!lu@g ©f s@S@e£©d aggregate economic assumptions, 1988, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected 1990 and 1995 1995 alternatives 1990 alternatives Variable 1968 1973 1977 1982 Low Moder ate High Low Moder ate High D em ographic Total population (m illions).................................................... Civilian labor force (m illions)................................................ 200.75 78.71 211.94 89.41 220.29 98.98 232.05 110.25 249.56 123.62 249.56 124.95 249.56 126.36 257.68 129.94 257.68 131.39 257.68 133.84 3.53 2.62 1.11 4.63 1.15 3.91 8.57 2.33 4.66 0.96 6.88 1.18 6.36 10.43 2.13 5.61 0.92 9.42 1.29 8.76 11.64 2.18 8.87 0.94 13.82 1.26 12.43 12.23 2.40 13.28 1.15 20.26 1.33 18.35 13.11 2.35 13.28 0.99 20.26 1.30 18.35 13.01 2.37 13.71 1.10 20.75 1.30 19.05 15.09 2.40 16.16 1.15 25.8(3 1.38 23.42 13.60 2.35 16.16 1.00 25.86 1.34 23.42 13.50 2.37 17.08 1.15 27.21 1.36 25.49 22.39 46.9 36.6 50.0 111.4 261.8 241.8 269.6 331.6 307.6 422.5 11.8 13.5 27.1 46.6 56.5 55.7 62.5 79.0 75.9 103.3 203.5 G overnm ent expenditures Armed Forces (m illion s)................... .................................... Implicit wage rate (dollars per hour) .............................. Civilian defense employment (m illions).............................. Implicit wage rate (dollars per hour) .............................. Civilian nondefense employment (m illions)........................ Implicit wage rate (dollars per hour) .............................. State and local government employment (m illion s)......... Defense purchases less compensation (billions of current dollars) ................................................................ Nondefense purchases less compensation (billions of current dollars) ................................................................ Grants-in-aid to State and local governments (billions of current dollars) ................................................................ Federal health insurance transfers (billions of current d o lla rs ).............................................................................. Federal retirement transfers (billions of current dollars) .. Other assumed Federal transfers (billions of current d o lla rs ).............................................................................. 18.6 40.6 67.6 83.5 142.9 137.9 138.5 192.7 191.2 193.5 107.9 154.8 96.7 189.6 103.2 5.6 4.5 9.7 9.7 21.7 18.4 50.7 35.3 122.2 69.4 109.4 65.1 112.5 66.4 9.0 18.9 33.5 51.3 101.5 95.3 97.5 148.9 133.4 147.0 9.7 35.0 25.0 8.5 35.0 21.6 8.4 35.0 19.5 6.6 15.0 14.3 6.6 15.0 14.3 6.6 15.0 14.3 6.6 15.0 14.3 6.6 15.0 14.3 6.6 15.0 14.3 6.6 15.0 14.3 53.0 24.0 4.0 7,800 48.0 25.0 6.0 10,800 48.0 28.0 6.0 16,500 46.0 26.0 7.0 32,400 43.0 24.0 7.7 55,800 46.0 23.0 8.0 55,800 44.0 22.0 7.7 55,800 42.0 24.0 7.7 82,500 46.0 23.0 8.0 82,500 44.0 22.0 7.7 82,500 18.0 21.2 25.1 50.0 87.1 87.2 104.2 125.9 104.2 146.1 0.6 1.7 0 29.4 0.5 2.8 37.3 1.1 170.8 48.2 1.2 439.1 80.8 1.2 396.7 83.2 1.2 366.2 85.6 1.2 866.0 101.5 1.2 716.2 109.7 1.2 605.0 118.3 106.7 98.1 3.37 16.0 126.7 11.2 15.5 110.4 108.0 13.27 19.0 387.8 10.2 18.5 0.66 114.3 127.2 32.23 28.0 1,060.9 9.9 26.7 0.92 144.7 144.6 42.86 30.0 2,877.5 9.5 37.7 0.95 146.7 149.9 41.01 30.0 2,877.5 9.5 37.7 0.95 148.6 151.4 41.01 28.0 2,916.4 9.7 37.7 0.95 167.0 151.7 57.25 33.0 4,459.1 9.5 41.7 0.95 171.0 159.9 51.80 30.0 4,459.1 9.5 41.7 0.95 175.7 162.9 51.75 28.0 4,706.7 9.8 41.7 0.95 G overnm ent revenues Tax life (years): Equipm ent....................................................................... Commercial structures................................................... Other structures.......................... .................................... Tax rate (percent): Basic corporate t a x ....................................................... Average marginal personal ta x ..................................... Social security................................................................. Tax base, social security (dollars) ...................................... Federal indirect business taxes (billions of current d o lla rs).............................................................................. M onetary Borrowed reserves (billions of current d o lla rs )................. Money market funds (billions of current d o lla rs ).............. Monetary base less currency (billions of current do lla rs). O 22.6 O ther assum ptions industrial production index, rest of world (index, 1975 = 1 0 0 )................................................................................... Average value of the U.S. dollar (index, 1975 — 1 0 0 ).... Cost of imported oil (current dollars per barrel) ............... Percent of new passenger cars im ported.......................... Producer Price Index for gas fuels (index, 1967 = 100) . Domestic oil production (million barrels per d a y )............. Average miles per gallon, new domestic c a r s .................. Ratio of domestic to import oil p ric e .................................. (1) 114.3 2.29 11.0 92.7 O 15.7 0 O 1 Not available. 65 B-2. Rates of change in selected aggregate economic assumptions, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected 1990 and 1995 (Average annual percent change) Low Variable 196873 197377 197782 1.1 2.6 1.0 2.6 -8.0 12.2 -2.9 8.2 0.9 10.2 4.0 -4.8 2.7 16.9 11.6 16.6 22.1 High Moderate 198290 199095 198290 199095 198295 198290 199095 1.0 2.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.7 0.8 1.2 -2.2 4.7 -1.1 8.2 2.3 8.3 2.8 8.1 19.0 13.6 22.3 17.4 23.8 0.5 9.6 0.4 8.0 -0.5 7.2 1.0 17.4 11.5 4.3 18.5 13.9 12.1 1.2 5.9 2.6 4.9 0.7 5.0 0.9 11.3 2.4 6.9 11.6 8.8 9.5 0.0 4.0 1.0 5.0 0.7 5.0 0.7 4.8 6.9 6.2 9.6 9.2 8.2 0.9 5.2 0.6 4.9 0.4 5.0 0.8 10.2 2.3 6.5 10.1 7.9 8.7 0.0 4.0 0.2 5.0 0.6 5.0 0.7 4.9 6.4 6.8 7.2 8.2 7.2 0.6 4.7 0.5 4.9 0.5 5.0 0.8 8.1 3.8 6.6 9.0 8.1 8.1 1.1 5.6 2.0 5.2 0.5 5.5 2.7 11.7 3.7 6.5 10.5 8.2 9.0 0.0 4.5 0.9 5.6 0.8 6.0 8.2 9.4 10.6 8.0 11.0 9.2 9.0 -2.6 0.0 -2.9 -0.3 0.0 -2.5 -4.7 -15.6 -6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.8 8.4 3.3 6.7 0.0 2.9 0.0 3.4 11.2 -0.8 -1.5 3.1 14.8 14.4 0.0 -7.7 1.2 7.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 7.7 0.0 -1.5 1.7 7.2 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 8.1 0.0 -0.9 1.0 5.8 7.5 -0.6 -2.1 1.2 7.0 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 7.0 24.6 -27.6 1.1 12.5 6.7 0.0 14.5 4.7 1.7 11.1 7.1 0.0 12.5 5.7 1.0 11.7 6.5 1.1 10.0 7.4 0.0 10.6 6.7 3.0 1.6 3.6 0.9 13.3 -0.5 4.4 0.4 2.9 0.0 6.0 1.9 9.2 1.0 2.0 0.0 3.2 2.1 3.1 0.9 13.3 -0.5 4.4 0.4 3.1 1.3 4.8 0.0 9.2 0.0 2.0 0.0 3.1 1.8 3.7 0.5 11.7 -0.3 3.5 0.2 3.3 2.2 3.1 0.0 13.5 -2.0 4.4 0.4 3.4 1.5 4.8 0.0 10.0 0.2 2.0 0.0 Dem ographic Total population.................................................................................... Civilian labor fo rc e ................................................................................ G overnm ent expenditures Armed F o rc e s ....................................................................................... Implicit wage r a te ............................................................................. Civilian defense em ploym ent.............................................................. Implicit wage r a te ............................................................................. Civilian nondefense em ploym ent........................................................ Implicit wage r a te ............................................................................. State and local government em ploym ent......................................... Defense purchases less compensation ............................................ Nondefense purchases less com pensation...................................... Grants-in-aid to State and local governm ents.................................. Federal health insurance tra n s fe rs .................................................... Federal retirement transfers ............................................................... Other assumed Federal transfers ...................................................... G overnm ent revenues Tax life: Equipm ent...................................................................................... Commercial stru cture s.................................................................. Other stru cture s............................... .............................................. Tax rate: Basic corporate ta x ....................................................................... Average marginal personal t a x .................................................... Social secu rity................................................................................ Tax base, social secu rity..................................................................... Federal indirect business ta x e s .......................................................... M onetary Borrowed re serves............................................................................... Money market fu n d s ............................................................................ Monetary base less currency.............................................................. 5.4 6.1 17.9 127.5 5.3 (1) -3.0 8.0 7.8 6.4 0 -0.3 0 0.9 2.4 40.9 4.4 32.3 -2.3 4.5 (1) 0.7 3.3 19.4 8.1 22.3 -0.6 7.6 6.9 O O O ther assum ptions Industrial production index, rest of w o rld .......................................... Average value of the U.S. d o lla r........................................................ Cost of imported oil ............................................................................. Percent of new passenger cars im po rted......................................... Producer Price Index for gas fuels .................................................... Domestic oil production....................................................................... Average miles per gallon, new domestic cars ................................. Ratio of domestic to import oil p r ic e ................................................. 1 Not applicable. 66 C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories T o ta l.................................................................................... 1,185,934 737,055 78,389 44,840 61,575 10,225 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k............................................. C o tto n ...................... ........................................................... Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u cts.............................................. 1,337 470 700 3,119 6,316 1,269 170 0 163 4,417 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 20 0 0 0 15 90 -20 459 289 1,318 447 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore mining ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. -707 294 -533 -43 -120 844 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 199 0 13 0 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 18 0 8 23 4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 771 -2,633 921 26 9,441 125 0 5 3 0 0 53 0 0 0 0 0 244 0 9 0 0 152 0 18 81 75 23 -8 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance............................................................................ Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ...................... ......................... 2,866 3,711 21,195 11,038 9,707 457 0 20,976 10,318 9,382 0 80 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 3 0 4 0 0 73 -9 289 69 134 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 4,361 6,903 60 2,710 7,471 3,525 6,762 1,021 2,703 8,105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 8 188 14 12 28 241 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s............................................... Other food products.... ..................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 4,676 6,973 7,078 537 2,689 4,510 5,975 6,087 639 1,391 0 0 0 0 597 0 0 2 0 39 0 0 3 0 505 39 233 217 279 140 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .......................... .................................................... Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. -79 1,487 19,661 3,106 391 122 1,551 21,012 2,774 5 8 0 0 0 0 7 0 2 1 2 82 0 5 2 0 54 89 653 166 9 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers......... ......................... *..................... Household furniture..................................................... . Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 1,969 6,430 15 6,753 3,456 0 379 0 5,706 257 0 5 0 680 2,388 232 1,031 0 4 109 2,334 4,861 0 83 104 265 358 3 356 78 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard....................................................................... . Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 2,741 254 1,958 4,138 2,275 2,389 106 1,949 2,901 880 0 0 0 0 0 67 1 0 2 5 255 2 0 3 10 180 61 14 92 158 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 1,792 475 1,323 562 -13 20 153 371 0 0 164 0 0 0 0 50 1 121 0 0 12 6 74 0 0 57 59 99 87 -14 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 5,695 7,580 919 14,896 2,668 4,175 7,068 123 13,503 2,587 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 178 577 51 0 0 266 344 59 212 169 116 42 178 See footnotes at end of table. 67 C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 58. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 1,237 2,070 -40 4,122 906 1,079 688 0 4,923 563 33 12 0 0 0 10 239 0 1 84 59 557 0 2 49 48 310 45 206 156 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 6,872 860 555 1,639 -392 1 0 414 205 4 0 0 0 0 0 1,895 186 144 643 1,180 2,686 545 154 374 328 134 29 31 116 463 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 839 2,699 -310 -1,194 73 0 8 20 0 0 2 64 0 0 13 78 1,657 14 1 0 99 543 5 0 0 26 194 -29 107 32 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 1,371 11,835 123 1,025 1,840 80 49 40 421 849 0 1,197 0 0 30 282 5,030 22 8 216 736 2,130 14 0 388 121 407 55 148 207 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and genera tors................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 3,594 2,789 4,533 6,427 2,293 298 138 66 0 0 683 1,606 4,202 3,774 1,641 1,743 0 0 167 336 171 0 0 62 41 232 173 194 342 51 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.............................. ........... Other nonelectrical machinery...... .............................. . Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 4,627 4,772 3,298 432 5,322 168 45 0 17 12 3,878 4,261 2,170 39 3,713 4 0 150 3 0 8 0 195 6 0 126 121 138 59 25 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s.............................. ....................... 1,141 4,864 3,723 1,654 5,952 199 485 29 24 4,572 610 2,078 2,318 992 1,005 0 389 350 16 50 0 671 289 1 160 5 298 98 115 380 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g ........ ...................................... Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 3,113 3,501 3,100 7,309 1,410 925 4,816 17 78 319 82 220 2,748 1,444 14 958 1 0 33 0 413 3 0 51 0 179 262 149 6 -1 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad equipm ent......................................................... 1,874 43,118 12,771 3,978 1,747 1,140 28,507 106 973 0 414 16,286 1,981 1,145 1,491 16 13 0 0 0 29 13 0 0 0 121 851 203 230 1 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transoortation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 357 4,882 2,683 1,690 917 1,313 1,630 33 275 486 .46 184 1,146 973 393 0 0 235 0 0 0 2,922 87 0 0 85 190 44 68 66 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s .................................... ................... Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 3,567 322 2,104 3,623 2,188 1,072 524 2,255 3,396 1,342 1,682 1 0 323 443 4 3 1 1 22 7 1 2 2 79 2 31 188 169 159 See footnotes at end of table. 68 C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972-—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 5,593 4,896 12,301 3,504 7,173 2,485 4,158 6,673 1,026 5,759 403 0 686 25 81 249 4 730 50 20 495 8 771 74 40 248 0 238 31 9 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s ..... ............................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 388 411 0 17,784 14,550 290 196 0 12,879 12,220 0 0 0 2,167 0 4 0 0 90 14 0 0 0 182 27 3 0 0 0 0 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ...................... 7,009 2,997 60,932 36,593 110,476 6,555 2,801 38,172 37,496 102,254 0 0 6,588 0 2,634 2 26 1,813 140 1,045 3 54 2,433 283 3,808 0 0 999 0 2 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 14,041 7,723 20,393 76,783 41,128 11,238 7,527 19,545 76,783 32,005 0 0 0 0 0 95 10 103 0 386 191 16 160 0 4,626 0 0 0 0 0 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s.................................. Advertising........................................................................ 5,964 12,180 4,310 8,343 688 5,249 11,362 4,310 1,851 123 0 192 0 0 0 5 3 0 432 14 10 6 0 542 29 0 0 0 0 0 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s..................................... 14,398 14,697 2,061 6,941 23,305 5,350 13,779 1,672 7,360 21,676 0 0 0 0 0 2,346 141 0 3 0 2,167 178 0 6 0 0 0 -164 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except h o s p ita ls............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 22,296 8,226 12,779 13,105 2,900 19,653 4,883 11,124 13,025 1,869 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 15 9 0 0 2 32 20 0 0 0 0 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terprises.......... .................................... Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 421 0 2,051 -5,062 0 300 0 1,987 6,550 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 4 23 0 0 0 0 4 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... -1,670 55,090 132,652 11,064 4,631 -7,716 2,163 0 0 -3,524 4,631 0 -3,902 0 0 0 0 0 -207 18,315 0 0 0 0 -1,116 23,248 0 0 0 0 204 0 0 0 0 -7,716 See footnotes at end of table. 69 C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government T o ta l.................................................................................... 743 77,470 -76,727 253,107 101,686 151,421 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 15 -163 389 2,415 1,329 17 94 403 2,465 1,896 -2 -257 -14 -50 -567 72 4 22 -794 14 2 2 22 -815 -178 70 2 0 21 192 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r.............. -1,047 18 -517 -66 -316 105 19 102 17 15 -1,152 -2 -619 -83 -331 -522 79 -24 0 -7 -530 16 -24 0 -7 7 63 0 0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 495 -2,762 -89 -16 6 496 1 90 79 6 -1 -2,763 -179 -96 0 69 0 585 47 9,409 47 0 60 -2 2,067 22 0 525 49 7,342 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 233 11 -928 0 -225 314 11 569 187 339 -81 0 -1,496 -187 -564 2,095 3,629 853 651 415 2,077 3,629 28 191 11 18 0 825 461 404 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 545 -33 . -991 -94 -881 619 11 9 39 33 -75 -44 -1,000 -133 -913 104 160 19 71 -7 39 4 1 1 1 65 156 18 70 -9 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 70 542 767 -464 -65 85 971 839 432 33 -15 -428 -71 -895 -98 56 222 1 83 82 2 32 0 25 12 55 190 1 58 69 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Lo gging.............................................................................. -365 -153 -2,225 -31 375 123 26 235 103 407 -488 -178 -2,460 -134 -32 14 0 214 194 1 8 0 130 144 0 5 0 84 50 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... -973 -624 -1 -183 -100 336 106 3 33 28 -1,310 -730 -4 -216 -128 111 421 13 107 620 16 81 13 64 130 95 339 0 42 491 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... -828 26 -8 107 35 957 33 4 276 91 -1,785 -6 -12 -169 -56 678 58 3 1,033 1,187 141 19 1 38 347 537 40 2 996 839 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 556 149 231 454 -14 1,569 329 400 576 188 -1,013 -181 -170 -122 -202 933 107 427 21 15 696 16 330 20 15 236 91 97 1 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ...................................................... 270 121 67 -2,161 -337 539 167 69 712 91 -269 -46 -2 -2,873 -428 1,039 222 169 2,592 129 153 48 20 898 70 886 174 149 1,694 60 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See footnotes at end of table. 70 C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. -257 21 -86 -1,028 -129 153 341 71 36 206 -410 -321 -157 -1,064 -336 266 243 1 18 184 143 70 1 8 36 123 173 0 9 148 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p roducts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... -82 -34 -236 -31 -2,813 12 40 36 167 624 -94 -74 -271 -197 -3,437 2,237 133 47 331 445 194 12 11 53 137 2,043 121 36 278 308 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p roducts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 115 -166 -346 -1,264 10 175 306 241 268 26 -60 -472 -587 -1,533 -16 519 399 26 -38 18 90 163 23 -38 8 429 236 3 0 10 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ -1 243 -92 413 -100 68 323 81 474 201 -68 -80 -173 -61 -301 153 2,779 84 36 249 24 586 71 9 73 129 2,193 12 27 176 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... -166 461 14 1,791 70 411 710 470 1,968 198 -577 -248 -456 -177 -128 633 411 58 291 154 225 325 14 139 84 408 86 44 152 71 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 285 264 343 72 977 582 1,139 876 79 1,525 -297 -875 -534 -7 -548 159 80 302 237 595 118 64 220 58 506 41 16 82 179 89 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household appliances ..................................................... -51 451 94 193 -289 135 528 410 418 216 -186 -77 -316 -224 -505 378 492 546 312 73 189 80 310 236 14 188 412 237 76 59 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 65 -1,924 -16 316 436 237 208 81 604 1,008 -172 -2,132 -97 -288 -572 490 124 204 5,380 642 97 70 203 5,227 621 393 53 1 153 21 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor vehicles .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad e q uipm e nt......................................................... -19 -4,336 2,483 18 148 301 4,123 3,045 189 174 -321 -8,459 -562 -171 -26 173 1,783 7,999 1,611 107 124 640 7,994 1,594 3 49 1,143 4 17 104 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt............................... -1,105 -67 454 143 -151 7 79 573 209 74 -1,112 -146 -119 -66 -225 19 22 684 231 123 1 3 496 105 100 18 18 188 126 23 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 192 -275 -338 -448 -309 575 14 226 257 204 -383 -289 -564 -705 -513 609 37 -2 181 452 278 29 -22 5 102 331 8 19 176 349 See footnotes at end of table. 71 C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972— Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Imports Exports Federal Total government Government State and local government (11. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 1,085 1 887 1,690 128 1,142 1 887 1,838 1,075 -57 0 0 -148 -947 628 725 2,315 607 1,135 320 39 1,138 510 822 308 687 1,178 97 313 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 56 215 0 389 -29 56 215 0 389 38 0 0 0 0 -67 36 0 0 2,076 2,318 16 0 0 852 505 20 0 0 1,224 1,813 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... -237 11 6,973 0 118 110 11 3,980 0 118 -347 0 2,993 0 0 687 104 3,955 -1,326 615 79 55 1,354 366 8 607 49 2,601 -1,692 606 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 8 11 71 0 2,035 8 11 236 0 2,035 0 0 -165 0 0 2,509 159 513 0 2,076 752 -20 -3 0 442 1,758 179 516 0 1,634 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging p lace s.............................................. Personal and repair se rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 4 0 0 399 31 4 0 0 401 40 0 0 0 -2 -10 697 618 0 5,119 492 605 91 0 2,995 17 92 526 0 2,124 474 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 400 0 426 0 0 400 0 438 0 0 0 0 -12 0 0 4,136 600 128 -429 1,629 645 127 96 47 203 3,491 472 31 -476 1,426 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except h o s p ita ls ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 0 0 0 23 21 0 0 0 53 21 o 0 0 -30 0 2,643 3,343 1,652 10 980 319 92 1,659 1 422 2,324 3,252 -7 9 558 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terprises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 118 0 0 -15,162 0 118 0 0 681 0 0 0 0 -15,843 0 3 0 58 3,508 0 3 0 17 3,496 0 0 0 42 12 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... -210 10 0 14,790 0 0 919 10 0 18,841 0 0 -1,130 0 0 -4,050 0 0 1,398 13,517 132,652 -202 0 0 360 2,104 49,305 -202 0 0 1,038 11,413 83,347 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 72 / 0 2 . Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories T o ta l.................................................................................... 1,369,770 864,357 101,674 41,508 57,885 13,302 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 1,276 468 704 4,459 7,144 1,218 188 0 175 5,005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 15 0 0 0 12 75 -32 332 93 2,138 634 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore mining ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. -297 302 -446 -10 -39 725 131 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 193 0 9 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 18 0 3 -4 4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 586 -6,130 1,166 23 9,341 68 0 7 1 0 0 129 0 0 0 0 0 333 0 7 0 0 191 0 19 7 67 50 -6 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 2,320 3,218 19,984 11,977 10,963 567 0 19,135 11,149 10,026 0 72 0 0 0 16 0 1 0 0 7 0 4 0 0 39 -35 170 49 284 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 5,455 6,468 -2 2,995 8,060 4,398 6,278 953 3,089 8,952 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 2 6 171 19 21 34 145 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 5,353 6,729 7,649 858 3,145 5,077 5,447 6,604 574 1,649 0 0 0 0 861 0 0 2 0 35 0 0 4 0 448 122 223 35 230 121 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 59 1,716 21,008 3,348 472 147 1,663 23,186 3,015 3 8 0 0 0 0 4 0 2 1 2 31 0 6 2 0 15 50 216 86 15 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 2,042 7,054 4 6,880 3,686 0 376 0 6,060 336 0 7 0 676 2,670 225 1,139 0 4 87 2,318 5,189 0 84 103 248 340 -5 102 79 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 3,462 241 2,000 4,866 2,383 2,844 105 1,994 3,249 914 0 0 0 0 0 50 1 0 1 4 211 2 0 3 11 289 17 19 78 54 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 1,578 505 1,441 648 229 166 0 0 0 0 83 1 166 0 0 10 4 69 0 0 27 96 47 177 22 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 7,317 8,346 894 17,509 2,984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 158 610 61 0 0 245 371 55 135 82 100 285 174 19 103 454 0 0' 5,188 7,797 136 15,672 2,969 See footnotes at end of table. 73 C-2. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le ather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 1,265 2,364 7 3,874 1,161 1,238 828 0 5,162 710 33 12 0 0 0 9 208 0 1 69 63 555 0 2 59 46 405 23 60 53 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 6,505 778 540 1,904 -810 1 0 399 191 4 0 0 0 0 0 1,867 146 143 740 1,456 2,709 514 152 483 233 107 24 29 151 47 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p roducts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 854 2,516 -107 -926 170 0 20 14 0 0 2 82 0 0 11 49 1,613 26 1 0 65 593 5 0 0 37 122 176 44 137 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 1,349 12,057 54 1,025 1,960 188 37 41 453 1,040 0 1,622 0 0 42 220 5,110 23 6 153 704 2,042 9 0 377 40 465 64 102 171 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and ge nerators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 3,587 3,124 5,970 7,909 2,390 304 166 77 0 0 725 1,253 5,643 4,592 1,728 1,670 0 0 365 209 131 0 0 58 8 464 86 123 65 97 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 5,368 4,497 4,378 469 11,515 222 86 0 18 26 4,626 3,576 2,888 33 8,072 4 0 191 2 0 10 0 179 6 0 215 55 215 57 362 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines............ ................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 1,730 5,165 4,277 2,130 6,871 403 407 27 26 5,227 963 2,238 2,909 1,312 1,220 0 311 263 17 45 0 696 257 0 169 5 87 77 108 273 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 2,826 4,848 3,755 9,316 2,678 762 6,993 20 115 1,131 109 344 3,413 1,995 45 837 1 0 31 0 385 4 0 57 0 82 281 79 29 183 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad equipm ent......................................................... 3,166 59,091 12,067 4,826 1,818 1,458 36,868 588 992 0 1,130 22,408 1,578 1,222 1,532 13 17 0 0 0 30 12 0 0 0 119 793 58 85 15 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 423 3,626 3,928 2,291 1,542 922 1,303 34 343 726 29 127 1,811 1,245 817 0 0 255 0 0 0 2,088 92 0 0 43 33 135 65 55 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 4,865 287 2,379 3,996 2,369 1,189 684 2,770 3,875 1,432 2,773 1 0 280 416 3 2 1 1 19 9 1 2 2 86 13 22 245 129 102 See footnotes at end of table. 74 C-2. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation................. ............................................ 5,435 4,669 12,920 4,026 8,954 2,274 4,200 6,884 979 7,394 424 0 871 26 107 227 3 486 54 18 455 8 717 68 43 319 0 357 41 13 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s.................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and private................................ 343 567 0 27,065 19,287 232 298 0 19,120 15,962 0 0 0 3,700 0 4 0 0 86 10 0 0 0 244 27 4 0 0 0 0 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ...................... 6,556 3,000 66,356 42,709 132,593 6,544 3,041 43,042 44,517 124,963 0 0 7,973 0 3,358 0 18 1,233 106 737 2 53 1,348 298 3,168 0 0 1,445 0 3 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 20,172 8,379 23,710 99,043 50,185 15,085 8,045 22,835 99,043 37,801 0 0 0 0 0 83 13 122 0 388 235 18 181 0 6,723 0 0 0 0 0 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business se rv ic e s .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 7,059 13,017 3,557 10,620 860 6,078 11,988 3,557 2,361 142 0 203 0 0 0 4 2 0 543 11 11 7 0 566 31 0 0 0 0 0 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s.......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 17,108 17,618 2,626 9,227 29,294 6,238 16,580 1,821 9,514 27,112 0 0 0 0 0 2,071 175 0 3 0 2,914 184 0 10 0 0 0 70 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 30,127 11,083 13,544 13,232 3,138 26,233 6,995 11,677 13,121 1,952 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 6 0 0 3 37 20 0 0 0 0 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 355 0 2,702 -5,565 0 188 0 2,624 5,400 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 4 18 0 0 0 0 4 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... -1,672 46,022 143,982 15,711 3,826 -4,067 2,686 0 0 -5,162 3,826 0 -4,629 0 0 0 0 0 -145 16,108 0 0 0 0 -359 18,470 0 0 0 0 277 0 0 0 0 -4,067 See footnotes at end of table. 75 C -2. G ross rsationaS produ et and major components by industry, 1977—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State arid local government T o ta l.................................................................................... 22,006 112,877 -90,871 269,038 100,369 168,669 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k ............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 6 -58 589 3,800 1,493 11 273 592 3,853 2,243 -4 -331 -3 -53 -750 84 7 22 -1,670 -78 3 4 22 -1,696 -312 81 3 0 26 234 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c op per.............. -600 23 -431 -6 -231 249 24 155 9 42 -849 -2 -586 -15 -273 -439 87 -18 0 -4 -445 15 -18 0 -4 6 71 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 443 -6,361 -52 -10 0 458 10 180 76 0 -15 -6,370 -231 -86 0 69 34 636 38 9,315 52 34 158 -1 2,127 17 0 478 39 7,188 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 348 64 -125 -45 153 415 64 1,019 128 618 -67 0 -1,144 -173 -465 1,343 3,118 799 823 500 1,331 3,118 32 214 14 11 0 768 609 486 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages .......................................................... 772 -23 -993 -212 -1,016 839 12 38 57 60 -66 -35 -1,031 -269 -1,075 114 195 17 82 -31 36 4 1 1 2 78 191 17 81 -32 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings ............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills.......................................................... 79 842 1,003 -42 -37 108 1,297 1,090 642 80 -29 -455 -87 -684 -117 76 216 1 95 69 2 38 0 22 13 74 178 0 73 56 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... hosiery and knit qoods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. -169 3 -2,625 62 451 163 47 470 211 486 -332 -44 -3,095 -150 -36 22 0 222 182 1 17 0 158 117 0 5 0 64 66 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing mills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... -849 -407 -1 -185 -87 411 209 2 89 59 -1,261 -616 -3 -274 -146 101 410 9 139 499 27 130 9 77 98 74 280 0 61 401 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... -771 49 -16 200 29 1,196 55 4 347 100 -1,966 -7 -20 -147 -71 838 67 4 1,335 1,372 193 18 1 55 348 645 49 3 1,280 1,024 46. 47. 48. 43. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical Droducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 274 190 374 453 189 1,403 487 552 586 332 -1,129 -297 -178 -134 -143 998 111 330 19 18 720 17 235 18 18 278 94 95 1 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations................................... Paints and allied products.............................................. Petroleum refining and related products...................... Tires and inner tu b e s ...................................................... 580 186 95 -1,460 -373 1,036 254 100 554 169 -456 -68 -5 -2,014 -542 1,414 282 160 2,030 98 177 58 33 937 56 1,238 224 127 1,093 42 See footnotes at end of table. 76 C-2. Gross national! product and major components by industry, 1977—Gontinued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s.................................................................................. -446 105 -16 -1,373 24 245 546 99 73 359 -691 -441 -115 -1,446 -335 321 251 0 21 247 143 78 0 8 49 178 173 0 13 198 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p roducts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... -39 -41 -231 43 -2,904 33 42 46 236 656 -72 -83 -277 -193 -3,560 1,860 135 48 296 353 330 17 14 77 128 1,530 118 34 219 225 66. 87. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metais and products...................... Metai containers............................................................... 157 -292 -357 -969 5 242 329 277 208 33 -85 -622 -633 -1,178 -28 544 378 28 -1 18 71 159 24 -2 6 473 218 5 0 11 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 61 457 -162 420 -48 98 552 105 464 308 -37 -96 -268 -44 -356 135 2,324 79 44 225 24 705 67 9 71 111 1,619 12 35 154 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal products .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... -223 1,293 46 2,572 187 575 1,564 719 2,959 299 -798 -271 -673 -387 -112 516 325 81 257 160 177 288 17 124 104 339 37 65 133 56 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral eq uipm ent........................... 133 716 516 108 2,022 610 1,434 1,356 118 3,211 -477 -718 -840 -9 -1,189 158 64 389 245 1,033 122 41 282 45 903 35 24 107 200 130 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission e q uipm e nt.................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... -126 855 269 357 -134 199 950 540 608 468 -325 -95 -271 -251 -602 485 571 474 308 71 180 103 275 243 13 305 468 199 65 58 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 234 -2,925 71 91 313 365 490 147 1,118 2,564 -131 -3,414 -76 -1,027 -2,251 416 148 172 6,997 1,006 119 109 171 6,766 958 297 39 1 231 49 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad eq uipm e nt......................................................... 181 597 -416 235 183 52 -3 ,3 4 4 6,151 -9 ,4 9 5 2,336 635 1,701 3,719 205 130 4,160 298 162 -441 -93 -32 6,125 2,322 141 6,118 2,289 3 7 33 138 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instruments .................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipment ............................... -578 59 818 340 -249 25 91 987 462 178 -603 -32 -169 -122 -427 8 15 783 299 193 1 2 532 143 171 7 13 250 156 22 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s .......................... .............................. Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go ods...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 221 -454 -653 -526 -111 905 125 303 312 331 -684 -579 -957 -838 -441 658 30 14 236 425 261 24 -7 5 103 396 6 21 230 322 See footnotes at end of table. 77 C-2. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) * Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 1,301 12 1,276 2,498 219 1,353 12 1,276 2,280 1,518 -52 0 0 217 -1,299 434 446 2,329 361 1,160 247 43 948 272 847 186 403 1,381 89 313 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 69 270 0 635 -145 69 270 0 635 45 0 0 0 0 -190 33 0 0 3,279 3,434 14 0 0 879 531 19 0 0 2,401 2,902 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s ............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... -517 13 7,613 0 42 89 13 5,581 0 42 -605 0 2,032 0 0 526 -126 3,702 -2,212 322 55 50 1,083 267 43 471 -176 2,619 -2,480 279 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 12 15 -8 0 3,026 12 15 345 0 3,026 0 0 -354 0 0 4,757 288 579 0 2,248 1,161 -33 -21 0 609 3,596 321 601 0 1,638 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s ......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 6 1 0 537 39 6 1 0 540 52 0 0 0 -3 -14 960 817 0 6,613 638 626 122 0 3,380 16 334 695 0 3,233 622 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile repair ............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists' s e rv ic e s ..................................... 622 0 589 0 0 622 0 615 0 0 0 0 -26 0 0 5,263 679 146 -299 2,183 797 97 104 453 221 4,466 583 42 -753 1,961 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 0 0 0 54 27 0 0 0 77 27 0 0 0 -24 0 3,895 4,089 1,863 8 1,132 724 173 1,868 0 439 3,171 3,916 -5 8 693 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 163 0 0 -13,774 0 163 0 0 696 0 0 0 0 -14,470 0 3 0 73 2,778 0 3 0 18 2,769 0 0 0 54 9 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... -112 0 0 21,438 0 0 1,213 0 0 27,992 0 0 -1,325 0 0 -6,555 0 0 610 11,444 143,982 -565 0 0 214 2,352 47,793 -565 0 0 396 9,092 96,190 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 78 C-3. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories T o ta l.................................................................................... 2,126,746 1,349,086 162,499 45,600 65,702 11,900 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and liv e s to c k ............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 1,542 1,062 902 10,231 9,332 1,475 289 0 207 6,386 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 20 0 0 0 12 75 -28 297 83 1,913 567 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. -632 416 -148 21 -14 763 222 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 308 0 13 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 16 0 2 -4 3 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 1,266 -6,723 1,817 128 9,074 138 0 11 2 0 0 207 0 0 0 0 0 352 0 8 0 0 211 0 17 6 60 45 -6 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen foods ............................................... 4,557 5,847 24,911 13,024 15,027 865 0 22,217 12,275 13,615 0 113 0 0 0 20 0 2 0 0 8 0 4 0 0 35 -32 152 44 254 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 7,052 5,908 85 3,960 14,161 4,951 5,740 928 4,249 15,004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 2 6 153 17 19 30 129 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco manufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 9,372 10,796 8,136 829 5,552 8,879 7,694 6,817 677 2,926 0 0 0 0 1,600 0 0 2 0 46 0 0 4 0 542 110 200 31 206 108 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 269 2,918 23,773 4,895 809 212 2,849 28,354 4,283 5 13 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 1 2 30 0 6 2 0 13 45 193 77 13 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 2,427 9,014 12 8,520 5,157 0 744 0 7,353 506 0 11 0 930 3,698 191 1,039 0 4 114 2,258 6,105 0 104 127 222 304 -4 92 70 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 8,171 375 2,021 7,513 2,928 5,135 147 2,021 5,733 1,358 0 0 0 0 0 52 1 0 2 5 236 2 0 3 10 259 15 17 70 48 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 2,108 1,353 3,137 869 612 27 187 797 0 0 265 0 0 0 0 103 1 212 0 0 10 4 96 0 0 24 86 42 158 19 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s....................................................... 18,928 12,218 1,098 18,467 1,669 14,310 11,091 202 15,328 2,602 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 172 656 71 0 0 321 377 55 121 73 89 255 156 See footnotes at end of table. 79 C-3. G ross natsonaS p ro d u c t and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 1,082 5,393 87 2,612 1,801 1,346 2,227 0 5,083 899 53 20 0 0 0 12 226 0 1 96 66 654 0 2 58 41 363 20 54 48 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related products.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 7,111 622 371 2,635 -763 2 0 406 332 6 0 0 0 0 0 1,975 62 123 729 1,149 2,867 435 164 530 267 96 21 26 135 42 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings ........................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts...................... Metal containers............................................................... 1,166 2,725 338 -1,524 181 0 28 15 0 0 4 130 0 0 17 57 1,627 21 1 0 75 752 6 0 0 33 109 158 40 123 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated {structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 1,609 15,262 54 1,271 2,696 213 56 61 592 1,493 0 2,739 0 0 66 210 5,377 28 9 181 872 2,474 11 0 383 36 416 57 91 153 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and genera tors................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 5,190 6,267 7,190 12,769 3,587 374 426 134 0 0 1,398 1,250 6,155 5,079 2,533 1,555 0 0 462 252 179 0 0 57 14 415 77 110 58 87 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral eq uipm ent........................... 7,858 5,600 7,112 651 52,550 334 129 0 34 6,182 6,709 3,757 3,410 52 32,431 5 0 231 2 0 9 0 208 6 0 193 49 192 51 324 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission e q uipm e nt.................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household appliances..................................................... 4,245 11,145 6,444 3,601 11,127 1,344 856 49 40 8,319 2,286 5,087 3,810 1,727 1,951 0 395 315 16 56 0 733 347 1 194 5 78 69 97 244 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 3,811 12,342 9,295 25,271 4,684 988 15,983 388 338 2,956 174 545 6,893 5,178 71 903 2 0 39 0 484 4 0 74 0 74 252 71 26 164 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad equipm e nt......................................................... 5,986 61,490 21,843 7,434 1,583 2,761 40,607 936 1,525 0 1,429 19,259 1,768 1,200 1,320 16 19 0 0 0 30 13 0 0 0 107 710 52 76 13 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts .................... .............. Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum en ts.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 355 4,365 5,343 4,545 3,746 1,160 1,679 53 776 1,566 46 202 2,140 2,363 1,829 0 0 251 0 0 0 2,275 103 0 0 39 30 121 58 49 106. 107. 108. 109 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s..................... Other manufactured products....................................... 10,856 34 2,686 5,585 3,326 2,676 869 3,614 4,982 1,682 4,800 2 0 447 514 4 3 1 1 22 8 1 2 2 88 12 20 219 116 91 See footnotes at end of table. 80 0 3 . Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 6,975 4,540 18,640 5,416 17,936 3,189 4,080 9,033 1,106 14,422 448 0 1,450 41 170 248 4 501 60 20 479 8 771 67 41 286 0 319 36 12 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation services .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and te le visio n .............. Electric utilities, public and private................................ 438 1,054 0 71,270 30,721 222 443 0 48,795 27,200 0 0 0 11,473 0 4 0 0 107 12 0 0 0 224 25 3 0 0 0 0 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 4,302 3,913 100,498 50,839 201,459 4,500 3,911 63,990 52,467 191,748 0 0 13,352 0 5,090 0 23 1,246 132 798 2 49 1,502 274 3,385 0 0 1,293 0 3 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs.......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 38,150 20,386 41,418 179,783 76,602 33,308 20,026 40,139 179,783 58,390 0 0 0 0 0 104 15 141 0 270 216 17 178 0 9,344 0 0 0 0 0 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business se rv ic e s.................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 13,102 14,235 4,040 19,857 1,020 11,525 12,956 4,040 5,944 269 0 324 0 0 0 5 3 0 877 13 10 6 0 560 28 0 0 0 0 0 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 23,279 24,393 3,594 20,016 51,661 10,813 23,248 2,308 19,952 48,672 0 0 0 0 0 2,350 200 0 4 0 3,061 181 0 9 0 0 0 63 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except h o s p ita ls............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 53,287 22,978 18,355 22,061 3,598 48,053 17,849 16,459 21,857 2,178 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 17 8 0 0 3 34 19 0 0 0 0 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable im p o rts ................................................. 0 656 0 3,421 -2,771 0 280 0 3,329 7,819 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 4 17 0 0 0 0 3 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... -1,063 53,403 171,499 51,386 2,653 -3,639 4,984 0 0 -8,931 2,653 0 -7,838 0 0 0 0 0 -39 18,928 0 0 0 0 -526 20,590 0 0 0 0 247 0 0 0 0 -3,639 See footnotes at end of table. 81 C-3. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government T o ta l.................................................................................... 148,499 267,898 -119,399 343,461 156,961 186,500 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 12 469 798 11,449 2,836 14 642 799 11,483 3,515 -2 -172 -2 -34 -679 84 7 22 -3,354 -553 3 4 22 -3,377 -769 81 2 0 24 217 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r.............. -667 40 -110 25 -316 428 42 541 30 106 -1,095 -2 -651 -6 -421 -744 90 -41 0 -10 -751 27 -41 0 -10 6 62 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except drillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 1,011 -7,023 360 98 0 1,037 24 597 207 0 -26 -7,048 -237 -108 0 111 34 839 34 9,049 96 34 251 -3 2,966 15 0 587 36 6,083 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 587 99 1,749 -89 664 641 99 2,631 90 1,114 -53 0 -881 -179 -450 3,041 5,666 787 793 494 3,025 5,666 36 213 14 16 0 751 580 480 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill p roducts........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 1,836 -34 -879 -393 -955 1,887 17 86 149 227 -51 -51 -965 -542 -1,182 113 186 17 71 -27 43 4 0 1 3 71 182 17 70 -30 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 308 2,691 1,281 -188 273 368 2,900 1,356 1,205 383 -60 -209 -75 -1,393 -110 76 210 0 134 58 2 35 0 49 18 74 176 0 85 40 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill p roducts............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. -28 24 -5,128 218 789 423 90 897 423 798 -451 -66 -6,024 -205 -9 24 0 344 314 1 19 0 255 240 0 5 0 89 73 1 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... -360 310 2 -115 147 720 869 7 212 265 -1,080 -559 -5 -327 -118 115 501 15 153 495 39 207 15 91 131 76 294 0 61 365 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 1,647 130 -21 565 63 3,184 136 2 709 171 -1,537 -7 -23 -143 -109 842 80 5 1,141 1,444 229 28 2 84 505 613 52 2 1,056 939 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 213 963 1,412 669 550 1,977 1,401 1,577 1,062 796 -1,764 -438 -165 -393 -246 1,465 111 578 42 42 1,193 24 481 41 42 273 87 97 1 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 2,439 746 141 -710 -1,361 2,933 830 147 830 269 -494 -84 -6 -1,540 -1,630 2,058 307 173 2,561 146 272 87 50 1,411 95 1,786 220 123 1,150 51 See footnotes at end of table. 82 0 3 . Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. -959 1,594 66 -2,561 403 439 2,101 126 197 736 -1,397 -507 -60 -2,758 -332 522 311 1 33 299 293 136 1 14 81 230 174 0 20 218 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related products.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... -28 -27 -406 573 -2,621 105 35 106 733 771 -133 -62 -512 -160 -3,392 2,198 131 60 336 394 512 23 21 118 232 1,686 108 38 218 162 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 437 -382 81 -1,515 17 537 257 759 236 45 -99 -639 -678 -1,751 -28 560 461 58 -50 24 152 235 54 -50 14 407 226 4 0 9 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 139 1,367 -222 558 175 185 1,486 219 609 582 -46 -119 -442 -51 -406 138 2,834 120 22 244 37 1,149 109 14 106 101 1,685 11 8 138 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts.................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 574 3,961 699 6,722 491 1,517 4,725 1,501 7,227 748 -943 -764 -802 -504 -257 697 553 93 391 211 289 519 29 255 154 407 34 64 136 57 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 380 1,580 2,455 251 11,503 1,018 2,382 3,360 266 14,174 -639 -802 -906 -15 -2,671 230 85 616 254 2,110 198 66 508 83 1,998 32 20 108 171 112 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 131 3,397 1,147 1,212 284 525 3,537 1,553 1,530 984 -394 -140 -406 -318 -699 479 600 707 509 79 209 178 528 450 20 270 423 179 60 59 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 708 -4,611 892 2,235 -85 801 799 975 3,803 9,100 -93 -5,410 -83 -1,568 -9,185 481 168 1,051 17,381 1,579 178 135 1,050 17,147 1,525 303 33 1 234 54 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft................................................................................ 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad e q uipm e nt......................................................... 1,279 -1,678 7,932 322 118 1,844 5,956 9,660 699 196 -564 -7,634 -1,728 -377 -79 365 2,560 11,156 4,312 133 307 852 11,145 4,262 5 58 1,707 11 50 128 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... -902 164 1,445 965 5 49 205 1,613 1,122 498 -952 -41 -168 -157 -493 13 14 1,231 383 297 3 3 963 193 275 10 11 268 190 22 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 2,493 -922 -1,190 -172 510 3,451 379 583 800 942 -958 -1,301 -1,773 -972 -433 862 60 40 209 420 456 54 21 10 146 406 6 19 198 274 See footnotes at end of table. 83 C-3. Gross national! product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation.................................................. ...... Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 1,682 28 3,311 3,392 1,406 1,802 28 3,311 3,254 3,511 -120 0 0 138 -2,105 644 421 3,255 713 1,864 449 79 1,798 618 1,569 195 342 1,457 95 295 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation .................................................... Transportation services .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 157 611 0 4,093 -126 157 611 0 4,093 103 0 0 0 0 -229 51 0 0 6,578 3,611 30 0 0 3,410 978 21 0 0 3,168 2,633 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... -715 31 14,706 0 96 201 31 10,312 0 96 -916 0 4,395 0 0 515 -101 4,409 -2,034 340 95 110 1,787 438 -25 419 -211 2,622 -2,472 365 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 28 35 375 0 6,284 28 35 783 0 6,284 0 0 -408 0 0 4,494 293 585 0 2,313 1,163 -31 -1 0 781 3,331 324 586 0 1,532 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s ......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s .................................. Advertising........................................................................ 12 1 0 1,178 107 12 1 0 1,181 119 0 0 0 -3 -12 1,549 946 0 11,297 603 1,132 189 0 8,139 36 417 757 0 3,158 567 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile repair ............................................................ Motion, p ic tu re s................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services ..................................... 1,408 0 971 0 0 1,408 0 1,002 0 0 0 0 -31 0 0 5,647 764 252 52 2,989 1,297 171 214 667 508 4,349 592 38 -615 2,481 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 0 0 1 145 61 0 0 1 175 61 0 0 0 -31 0 5,234 5,129 1,892 9 1,332 1,219 176 1,876 2 603 4,015 4,953 16 7 729 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orp ora tion...................................... Other Federal en terprises.............................................. Local government passenger transit ............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 370 0 0 -14,100 0 370 0 0 1,287 0 0 0 0 -15,386 0 6 0 87 3,477 0 6 0 34 3,469 0 0 0 53 8 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 1,543 0 0 61,187 0 0 2,545 0 0 72,973 0 0 -1,002 0 0 -11,786 C 0 565 13,885 171,499 -870 0 0 236 3,984 60,059 -870 0 0 329 9,901 111,440 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 84 G-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories T o ta l.................................................................................... 2,166,782 1,412,389 180,099 71,100 74,200 11,800 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 1,649 872 874 10,133 9,460 1,580 297 0 222 6,802 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 29 0 0 0 14 88 -28 294 82 1,897 563 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. -709 433 -164 18 -29 808 228 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 342 0 18 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 16 0 2 -4 3 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 1,220 -7,014 1,883 103 8,857 148 0 11 2 0 0 229 0 0 0 0 0 526 0 11 0 0 241 0 20 6 59 45 -5 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 4,117 5,003 25,309 13,806 15,481 926 0 23,802 13,151 14,586 0 126 0 0 0 30 0 2 0 0 9 0 5 0 0 35 -31 151 44 252 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 7,128 6,300 72 4,014 14,538 5,304 6,149 994 4,552 16,074 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 2 7 151 16 19 30 128 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings ............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 9,968 11,165 8,348 753 5,878 9,512 8,243 7,102 725 3,120 0 0 0 0 1,694 0 0 3 0 64 0 0 5 0 626 109 198 31 205 107 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 242 3,112 23,948 4,956 783 225 3,077 30,616 4,484 5 14 0 0 0 0 6 0 4 2 3 34 0 7 2 0 13 45 192 77 13 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 2,296 9,782 9 8,935 5,598 0 793 0 7,840 539 0 12 0 1,012 4,106 277 1,509 0 6 167 2,562 6,849 0 115 141 220 302 -4 91 70 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 7,558 373 2,095 7,832 2,892 5,379 154 2,105 6,114 1,415 0 0 0 0 0 76 2 0 2 7 264 3 0 4 12 256 15 17 69 48 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inoraanic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 1,893 1,266 3,116 796 557 28 195 847 0 0 295 0 0 0 0 160 2 320 0 0 12 5 108 0 0 24 85 42 157 19 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drucis ................................................ ................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 19,235 12,615 1,226 18,854 1,587 14,908 11,557 210 16,520 2,805 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 270 991 108 0 0 353 434 63 120 73 89 253 154 See footnotes at end of table. 85 C-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 1,094 5,256 70 2,623 1,728 1,445 2,367 0 5,488 956 58 22 0 0 0 17 328 0 1 134 76 728 0 2 66 41 359 20 53 47 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 8,378 686 390 3,051 -1,706 2 0 432 344 6 0 0 0 0 0 2,920 94 187 1,169 1,771 3,267 496 185 599 304 95 21 25 134 41 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts...................... Metal containers............................................................... 1,164 3,210 11 -1,594 166 0 30 16 0 0 4 144 0 0 19 86 2,491 34 1 0 85 827 7 0 0 33 108 156 39 122 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 1,786 18,366 -6 1,270 2,715 229 60 63 632 1,585 0 2,375 0 0 74 312 8,743 42 12 260 961 2,777 13 0 438 36 412 57 90 152 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts.................................... Engines, turbines, and ge nerators................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 5,755 6,166 7,270 13,115 3,945 393 460 143 0 0 1,285 1,388 6,833 5,639 2,812 2,895 0 0 715 489 197 0 0 65 16 412 77 109 58 86 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 8,272 5,577 7,051 644 53,149 356 138 0 37 6,591 7,449 4,171 3,786 58 36,007 7 0 350 3 0 10 0 238 6 0 191 48 191 51 321 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office eq u ip m e n t....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission eq u ip m e n t.................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household appliances ..................................................... 4,371 11,414 6,740 3,546 11,243 1,433 918 51 42 8,685 2,538 5,381 4,230 1,918 2,003 0 579 462 25 81 0 835 380 1 219 5 77 69 96 242 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 4,339 12,732 9,855 23,129 4,584 1,042 17,867 413 362 3,165 194 596 7,653 5,749 78 1,388 2 0 57 0 533 4 0 81 0 73 249 70 26 163 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. Aircraft ............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad eq uipm e nt......................................................... 5,994 69,149 19,610 6,929 1,691 2,956 49,162 1,009 1,645 0 1,587 24,714 1,963 1,332 1,465 23 29 0 0 0 34 14 0 0 0 106 704 51 75 13 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum en ts.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 379 5,298 5,467 4,726 3,791 1,251 1,810 56 822 1,689 51 224 2,377 2,623 2,031 0 1 381 0 0 0 3,080 117 0 0 38 30 120 57 48 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and s u p p lie s ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 10,934 -4 2,746 5,601 3,263 2,815 933 3,894 5,237 1,778 5,330 2 0 496 571 6 5 1 1 32 9 2 2 2 100 12 19 218 115 90 See footnotes at end of table. 86 C-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 7,064 4,719 18,897 5,398 17,986 3,394 4,257 9,611 1,166 15,731 493 0 1,340 45 189 388 5 795 92 29 543 9 877 77 48 283 0 316 36 12 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 450 1,056 0 73,235 31,765 239 463 0 50,901 28,400 0 0 0 12,072 0 7 0 0 150 17 0 0 0 259 28 3 0 0 0 0 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 4,224 4,077 103,468 54,527 212,899 4,700 4,085 66,349 56,209 201,659 0 0 13,590 0 5,651 1 32 1,954 184 1,197 2 57 1,679 316 3,937 0 0 1,282 0 3 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 39,093 20,956 42,495 181,690 77,299 34,216 20,571 41,458 181,690 59,023 0 0 0 0 0 145 23 210 0 386 249 19 204 0 9,727 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair se rv ic e s ......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. Advertising........................................................................ 13,135 14,661 4,150 19,481 1,042 11,711 13,345 4,150 6,147 276 0 359 0 0 0 7 3 0 1,347 18 12 7 0 640 33 0 0 0 0 0 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion pictures ................................................................ Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ se rv ic e s ..................................... 25,074 24,856 3,582 20,445 52,994 11,107 23,584 2,371 20,495 49,999 0 0 0 0 0 3,427 306 0 5 0 3,564 207 0 10 0 0 0 62 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 54,553 23,611 18,545 22,650 3,635 49,362 18,335 16,907 22,453 2,273 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 11 0 0 3 39 22 0 0 0 0 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 656 0 3,551 -7,662 0 291 0 3,460 8,071 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 3 11 0 0 0 4 20 0 0 0 0 3 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... -2,905 66,664 171,095 34,281 2,769 -3,608 5,385 0 0 -9,178 2,769 0 -8,702 0 0 0 0 0 -61 29,643 0 0 0 0 -544 23,330 0 0 0 0 245 0 0 0 0 -3,608 See footnotes at end of table. 87 . 0 0 0 0 0 0-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government T o ta l.................................................................................... 86,099 260,098 -173,999 331,099 139,199 191,900 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k ............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 10 275 774 10,905 2,423 13 526 776 10,955 3,412 -3 -251 -2 -50 -990 87 6 19 -2,910 -444 3 4 19 -2,934 -669 84 3 0 25 224 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r.............. -888 38 -132 21 -366 416 41 526 30 103 -1,304 -3 -658 -8 -468 -646 88 -34 0 -9 -652 23 -34 0 -9 7 65 0 0 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 969 -7,332 234 72 0 1,007 24 580 201 0 -38 -7,356 -346 -129 0 97 29 825 35 8,826 81 29 218 -2 2,534 16 0 607 38 6,292 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 544 96 541 -174 135 622 96 1,971 87 790 -78 0 -1,430 -261 -656 2,572 4,812 808 785 508 2,555 4,812 31 185 12 17 0 777 600 496 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 1,563 -58 -958 -645 -1,648 1,638 16 84 145 221 -7 4 -74 -1,042 -790 -1,869 110 192 18 73 -28 37 3 0 1 2 73 189 17 72 -31 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 270 2,512 1,207 -306 212 358 2,816 1,317 1,170 372 -88 -304 -109 -1,476 -160 78 212 0 129 57 2 30 0 41 15 76 182 0 88 41 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill p roducts............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. -72 -9 -7,180 112 762 410 87 871 411 775 -482 -97 -8,051 -299 -13 22 0 310 279 1 16 0 218 204 0 6 0 92 76 1 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... -875 -165 1 -270 85 699 650 7 206 257 -1,574 -815 -6 -476 -172 112 482 13 142 489 33 177 13 79 112 79 305 0 63 377 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 851 122 -31 479 8 3,092 132 2 688 166 -2,240 -10 -33 -209 -158 831 77 4 1,165 1,403 197 24 2 72 432 634 54 2 1,093 971 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 78 868 1,291 604 502 1,919 1,360 1,531 1,031 773 -1,842 -492 -240 -427 -271 1,298 111 508 35 36 1,016 21 408 35 36 282 90 100 1 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 2,128 684 134 -1,729 -1,677 2,848 805 143 806 261 -720 -122 -9 -2,535 -1,939 2,079 302 170 2,386 134 232 74 43 1,197 81 1,847 228 127 1,190 52 See footnotes at end of table. C-4. Gross national! product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative-continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. -1,027 1,155 50 -2,953 230 426 2,040 123 191 714 -1,453 -885 -73 -3,144 -484 485 297 1 32 294 248 116 1 11 69 238 180 0 21 225 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... -91 -56 -498 478 -4,195 102 34 103 712 749 -193 -90 -601 -233 -4,943 2,185 131 58 326 366 441 19 18 101 198 1,744 112 40 225 168 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 405 -827 -251 -1,593 3 521 250 737 229 43 -116 -1,077 -988 -1,823 -40 550 436 50 -41 22 123 202 45 -42 12 421 234 4 0 10 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 113 1,270 -285 516 -28 180 1,443 213 591 565 -67 -173 -498 -75 -592 136 2,730 104 20 233 32 987 93 12 91 105 1,743 11 9 142 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... -96 3,766 94 6,281 352 1,278 4,588 1,263 7,016 726 -1,374 -822 -1,169 -735 -374 669 476 91 357 191 248 441 25 216 132 421 36 66 141 59 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 58 1,144 1,943 241 8,411 989 2,312 3,262 259 13,761 -931 -1,168 -1,320 -18 -5,350 201 76 544 248 1,818 169 56 432 70 1,702 33 20 112 177 116 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household a p pliance s..................................................... -64 3,036 916 1,021 -64 510 3,240 1,508 1,485 955 -574 -205 -592 -464 -1,019 460 588 633 444 78 180 151 447 382 17 280 437 185 62 61 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 642 -6,137 826 2,063 -179 777 1,747 947 3,692 8,835 -135 -7,884 -120 -1,629 -9,014 466 150 892 14,791 1,356 153 116 891 14,549 1,300 313 34 1 242 56 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor vehicles .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad eq uipm e nt......................................................... 968 -7,967 7,152 217 76 1,790 8,695 9,379 678 191 -822 -16,662 -2,227 -462 -115 321 2,493 9,435 3,661 136 261 727 9,424 3,609 4 60 1,766 11 52 132 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instruments .................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipment ............................... -974 140 1,321 861 -235 48 199 1,566 1,089 484 -1,022 -60 -245 -228 -718 13 14 1,095 362 257 2 2 818 166 235 10 12 277 196 23 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 1,954 -1,017 -1,406 -464 284 3,350 368 566 777 915 -1,396 -1,385 -1,972 -1,241 -631 808 52 37 214 408 388 46 17 9 125 420 6 20 205 283 See footnotes at end of table. 89 C-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Federal Total government Government Imports State and local government 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 1,380 27 2,923 3,360 341 1,556 27 2,923 3,160 3,409 -175 0 0 200 -3,068 584 421 3,034 621 1,637 381 67 1,527 522 1,332 202 354 1,507 99 305 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and p riva te ................................ 153 593 0 3,683 -234 153 593 0 3,683 100 0 0 0 0 -334 48 0 0 6,172 3,554 26 0 0 2,895 830 22 0 0 3,277 2,724 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... -994 30 14,376 0 93 195 30 9,429 0 93 -1,189 0 4,947 0 0 515 -126 4,238 -2,183 360 81 93 1,525 374 -17 434 -219 2,712 -2,557 377 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 27 34 19 0 5,907 27 34 760 0 5,907 0 0 -740 0 0 4,456 309 605 0 2,256 1,010 -27 -2 0 672 3,446 336 606 0 1,585 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 12 1 0 1,143 98 12 1 0 1,147 115 0 0 0 -4 -18 1,393 945 0 10,204 617 962 161 0 6,938 30 431 783 0 3,266 586 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 1,367 0 928 0 0 1,367 0 973 0 0 0 0 -45 0 0 5,608 759 220 -66 2,995 1,110 146 181 571 429 4,499 613 39 -636 2,566 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................... ................................ Medical services, except h o s p ita ls............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........... ............................................................. 0 0 1 125 59 0 0 1 170 59 0 0 0 -45 0 5,191 5,276 1,633 9 1,270 1,038 153 1,616 1 516 4,153 5,123 17 8 754 0 5 0 29 2,942 0 O 0 55 9 204 3,449 56,833 -756 0 0 340 10,241 114,262 0 0 0 146. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... 0 0 0 147. O ther Federal enterprises .................................................. 359 359 0 148. Local government passenger transit ............................ 149. Other State and local enterprises................................. 150. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 0 -18,723 0 0 1,152 0 0 -19,875 0 5 0 84 2,951 228 0 0 44,215 0 0 2,374 0 0 70,850 0 0 -2,146 0 0 -26,635 0 0 545 13,691 171,095 -756 0 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 90 C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories T o ta l.................................................................................... 2,264,452 1,491,384 205,773 77,892 109,137 12,200 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 1,673 806 881 10,128 9,548 1,615 312 0 227 6,970 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 32 0 0 0 22 135 -29 304 85 1,961 582 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. -850 471 -206 15 -53 831 239 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 392 0 20 0 0 0 0 93 0 0 0 17 0 2 -4 3 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 1,210 -7,724 1,866 92 7,992 148 0 12 2 0 0 262 0 0 0 0 0 574 0 13 0 0 369 0 31 6 61 46 -6 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 4,188 5,011 25,236 13,931 15,517 1,002 0 24,323 13,439 14,905 0 144 0 0 0 33 0 2 0 0 14 0 8 0 0 36 -33 156 45 261 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products...... ..................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 7,223 6,388 4 3,915 14,506 5,420 6,284 1,016 4,652 16,426 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 3 11 157 17 19 31 133 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings ............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 10,142 11,236 8,567 629 6,737 9,720 8,424 7,350 747 3,542 0 0 0 0 1,850 0 0 3 0 69 0 0 7 0 959 112 205 32 211 111 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 206 3,188 23,838 5,054 784 247 3,166 31,505 4,694 5 15 0 0 0 0 7 0 4 2 3 52 0 10 4 0 14 46 198 79 14 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts.............. Wooden containers................................................. ........ Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 3,073 13,225 7 9,996 6,252 0 901 0 8,900 612 0 14 0 1,136 4,699 293 1,611 0 6 184 3,906 10,406 0 174 213 227 312 -4 94 72 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 7,107 372 2,157 8,094 2,790 5,562 159 2,179 6,558 1,467 0 0 0 0 0 82 2 0 2 7 402 4 0 6 18 265 15 17 71 49 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p ro d u cts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 1,637 1,244 3,197 648 512 29 202 943 0 0 337 0 0 0 0 163 2 337 0 0 18 8 165 0 0 24 88 43 162 20 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s .................................................. . 19,317 12,969 1,434 18,908 1,463 15,430 11,973 218 17,323 3,366 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 304 1,067 112 0 0 534 664 97 124 75 92 261 159 See footnotes at end of table. 91 C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers' durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p roducts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 960 5,634 59 2,424 1,705 1,523 2,657 0 5,659 1,078 66 25 0 0 0 18 363 0 1 153 115 1,103 0 3 101 42 372 21 55 49 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 10,097 913 425 3,431 -3,329 2 0 491 365 6 0 0 0 0 0 3,175 106 195 1,317 1,845 4,988 756 281 913 464 98 21 26 139 43 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 1,137 3,333 -340 -1,713 157 0 34 18 0 0 5 165 0 0 22 95 2,593 37 1 0 130 1,248 10 0 0 34 112 162 41 126 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pinas............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 2,311 20,987 -177 1,335 2,925 257 68 65 717 1,757 0 2,718 0 0 84 351 9,809 46 14 285 1,451 4,220 20 0 669 37 426 59 93 157 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts.................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 5,876 6,130 7,845 13,737 4,306 425 504 162 0 0 1,471 1,588 7,820 6,454 3,218 3,235 0 0 731 574 297 0 0 100 24 426 79 112 60 89 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 9,063 5,776 7,279 642 57,319 404 156 0 45 7,483 8,525 4,774 4,333 66 41,209 8 0 383 4 0 15 0 364 10 0 198 50 197 52 332 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s................... ................................. 4,688 12,726 7,371 3,662 12,188 1,626 1,040 53 48 9,746 2,905 6,159 4,841 2,195 2,115 0 650 515 25 91 0 1,275 573 1 333 5 80 71 99 250 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 4,767 13,134 10,979 23,432 3,677 1,136 20,116 469 407 3,565 222 674 8,758 6,579 90 1,501 3 0 64 0 806 7 0 123 0 76 258 73 27 168 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. Aircraft ............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad equipm ent......................................................... 6,414 70,365 19,556 6,841 1,847 3,426 59,124 1,106 1,802 0 1,816 28,285 2,246 1,524 1,677 25 31 0 0 0 52 22 0 0 0 109 728 53 78 14 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controllina instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instruments .................................... Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t............................... 425 6,700 5,806 5,059 3,979 1,371 2,134 61 875 1,851 58 257 2,720 3,002 2,324 0 1 418 0 0 0 4,146 179 0 0 40 31 124 59 50 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s..................... Other manufactured products....................................... 11,311 88 3,009 5,789 3,258 2,961 1,038 4,282 5,528 1,892 6,099 2 0 568 653 6 5 1 1 35 14 2 3 3 153 12 20 225 119 93 See footnotes at end of table. 92 C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Producers’ durable equipment Nonresidential construction Residential construction Change in business inventories 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation....................................................... ...... 7,651 5,085 20,040 5,598 18,105 3,665 4,654 10,180 1,226 16,951 559 0 1,530 52 216 422 6 849 98 32 827 13 1,338 118 73 293 0 327 37 12 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s.................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and te le visio n .............. Electric utilities, public and private................................ 459 1,106 0 78,635 32,975 250 509 0 54,724 30,000 0 0 0 13,816 0 7 0 0 164 19 0 1 0 397 44 3 0 0 0 0 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 4,237 4,444 112,362 56,206 230,757 5,200 4,394 70,659 57,440 216,718 0 0 15,516 0 6,467 1 35 2,095 202 1,311 3 87 2,544 485 5,848 0 0 1,325 0 3 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 40,533 21,945 44,938 182,864 79,264 35,898 21,583 44,113 182,864 59,438 0 0 0 0 0 159 24 223 0 416 382 29 312 0 11,387 0 0 0 0 0 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s.................................. Advertising........................................................................ 13,339 15,343 4,354 19,833 1,008 11,955 14,054 4,354 6,494 290 0 411 0 0 0 8 4 0 1,395 20 18 11 0 979 50 0 0 0 0 0 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile repair ............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ............ .................................................... Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services ..................................... 27,425 27,267 3,686 21,518 55,190 11,653 25,937 2,488 21,503 52,458 0 0 0 0 0 3,786 318 0 6 0 5,479 317 0 15 0 0 0 64 0 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 56,546 23,978 19,342 23,761 3,735 51,790 19,237 17,739 23,557 2,445 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 25 13 0 0 4 60 33 0 0 0 0 0 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger transit ............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 668 0 3,808 -17,382 0 302 0 3,721 8,482 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 3 12 0 0 0 7 30 0 0 0 0 3 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... -4,903 80,732 194,557 20,360 2,981 -3,730 6,543 0 0 -9,628 2,981 0 -9,959 0 0 0 0 0 -62 32,639 0 0 0 0 -623 35,559 0 0 0 0 254 0 0 0 0 -3,730 See footnotes at end of table. 93 C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative-continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Total Federal government Government State and local government T o ta l.................................................................................... 22,800 261,698 -238,898 345,267 144,567 200,700 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 9 185 778 10,953 2,274 14 529 781 11,022 3,433 -4 -345 -3 -69 -1,159 78 6 18 -3,041 -446 3 4 18 -3,063 -646 75 2 0 22 201 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore mining ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c op per.............. -1,072 38 -174 19 -440 418 42 529 30 103 -1,490 -4 -703 -11 -543 -625 81 -34 0 -9 -631 23 -34 0 -9 6 58 0 0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair con struction............................ 961 -8,076 109 65 0 1,013 24 583 202 0 -52 -8,100 -475 -137 0 95 28 756 31 7,949 81 28 212 -2 2,308 14 0 545 34 5,641 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 519 97 20 -270 -105 626 97 1,984 88 795 -107 0 -1,963 -358 -900 2,584 4,803 727 717 457 2,569 4,803 30 179 12 15 0 697 538 445 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S uaar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 1,546 -86 -1,047 -839 -2,044 1,648 16 84 146 222 -102 -102 -1,131 -984 -2,266 101 172 16 66 -25 36 3 0 1 2 65 169 16 65 -28 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco manufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 239 2,416 1,175 -449 154 360 2,833 1,325 1,177 374 -120 -417 -150 -1,626 -220 70 192 0 120 52 2 29 0 41 15 68 163 0 79 37 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. -149 -25 -8,177 3 762 413 88 876 413 780 -562 -113 -9,054 -410 -18 21 0 299 272 1 16 0 216 204 0 5 0 82 88 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.................................. ........................ Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... -1,458 -465 -2 -447 23 703 654 7 207 258 -2,161 -1,119 -8 -654 -236 104 448 13 134 449 33 175 13 77 110 71 273 0 57 338 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 35 120 -43 406 -50 3,111 133 2 692 167 -3,076 -14 -45 -286 -217 761 72 4 1,051 1,298 193 24 2 71 427 568 48 2 980 871 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. -198 843 1,210 451 456 1,931 1,369 1,540 1,037 778 -2,128 -526 -330 -586 -322 1,263 101 498 36 36 1,010 21 408 35 36 253 81 90 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products................ ....... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 1,877 643 132 -2,670 -2,399 2,866 810 144 811 263 -989 -167 -12 -3,481 -2,662 1,886 278 156 2,263 128 230 74 42 1,196 81 1,656 204 114 1,066 47 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ______ See footnotes at end of table. 94 C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. -1,267 838 38 -3,325 54 428 2,052 124 192 719 -1,695 -1,215 -86 -3,517 -665 461 277 1 30 270 248 115 1 11 68 213 162 0 18 202 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p roducts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... -163 -90 -622 396 -6,034 103 34 103 716 753 -265 -123 -725 -320 -6,787 1,995 119 54 302,, 347 431 19 18 100 196 1,564 100 36 202 150 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 365 -1,228 -616 -1,712 -12 524 251 742 231 44 -159 -1,479 -1,357 -1,943 -55 507 408 50 -43 21 129 198 46 -43 12 378 210 4 0 9 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 89 1,214 -469 492 -245 181 1,452 214 595 568 -92 -237 -683 -102 -813 125 2,533 102 19 217 32 970 92 11 90 94 1,563 10 8 128 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... -601 3,487 -334 6,050 217 1,286 4,616 1,271 7,060 731 -1,887 -1,129 -1,605 -1,009 -514 622 471 84 342 183 245 440 25 216 130 378 32 59 126 53 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... -283 723 1,471 236 6,500 995 2,326 3,282 260 13,846 -1,278 -1,604 -1,812 -24 -7,346 197 74 531 229 1,795 168 55 430 70 1,692 29 18 101 159 104 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines....... ....................................... Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household a p pliance s..................................................... -275 2,979 704 857 -438 513 3,260 1,517 1,494 961 -788 -281 -813 -637 -1,399 427 542 613 437 71 176 150 447 381 17 251 392 166 55 54 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 597 -8,067 787 1,478 -1,486 782 1,758 953 3,715 8,889 -186 -9,825 -165 -2,237 -10,376 431 144 891 14,755 1,341 150 114 890 14,538 1,290 281 30 1 217 50 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad e q uipm e nt......................................................... 672 -20,128 6,980 49 34 1,801 8,749 9,437 683 192 -1,129 -28,877 -2,457 -634 -158 314 2,304 9,172 3,388 123 260 721 9,162 3,341 4 54 1,583 10 47 119 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instruments .................................... Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt............................... -1,055 118 1,239 783 -499 48 200 1,575 1,096 487 -1,104 -82 -336 -313 -986 12 13 1,064 339 253 2 2 816 163 233 9 10 248 176 20 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 1,454 -1,032 -1,538 -623 55 3,371 371 570 782 920 -1,916 -1,402 -2,108 -1,404 -866 763 51 36 193 377 386 46 18 9 124 377 6 18 184 254 See footnotes at end of table. 95 C-5. dross national product and major components by Industry, 19S5 high alternative-continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Net exports Exports Imports Federal Total government Government State and local government 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 1,324 28 2,941 3,454 -782 1,565 28 2,941 3,179 3,430 -241 0 0 275 -4,212 561 384 2,875 613 1,604 380 67 1,524 525 1,330 181 318 1,351 88 274 118. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 154 5S7 0 3,705 -358 154 597 0 3,705 101 0 0 0 0 -458 45 0 0 5,828 3,271 26 0 0 2,890 829 20 0 0 2,938 2,442 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s ............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... -1,436 30 16,279 0 93 196 30 9,487 0 93 -1,633 0 6,792 0 0 470 -103 3,943 -1,921 316 81 93 1,511 371 -23 389 -196 2,432 -2,292 338 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 27 34 -252 0 5,944 27 34 764 0 5,944 0 0 -1,016 0 0 4,067 275 543 0 2,080 977 -26 -1 0 659 3,089 301 544 0 1,421 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair services ......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 12 1 0 1,148 92 12 1 0 1,154 116 0 0 0 -6 -24 1,346 862 0 9,817 556 960 160 0 6,889 31 387 702 0 2,928 525 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 1,376 0 918 0 0 1,376 0 979 0 0 0 0 -61 0 0 5,130 694 217 -6 2,732 1,097 145 182 564 431 4,033 549 35 -570 2,301 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 0 0 1 110 60 0 0 1 171 60 0 0 0 -61 0 4,756 4,741 1,597 8 1,185 1,033 148 1,582 1 509 3,723 4,593 15 7 676 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal enterprises .............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 362 0 0 -28,864 0 362 0 0 1,153 0 0 0 0 -30,023 0 5 0 78 2,949 0 5 0 29 2,942 0 0 0 49 8 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent..................................... -1,559 0 0 30,716 0 0 2,388 0 0 71,284 0 0 -3,947 0 0 -40,568 0 0 504 12,534 194,557 -731 0 0 199 3,352 63,463 -731 0 0 305 9,182 131,094 0 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 96 D-1. G ross ouSpuS by industry, 1958-95 (Millions of 1972 dollars) industry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1968 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 10,847 22,210 2,096 12,463 11,388 10,750 23,428 2,577 11,714 11,698 10,789 23,185 2,394 12,980 11,914 11,174 24,354 2,330 12,076 12,297 11,224 25,152 2,436 12,568 12,909 11,237 25,816 2,658 13,764 13,057 11,459 25,860 2,543 13,769 13,394 11,347 25,671 2,435 15,056 13,208 11,324 26,673 1,911 14,465 13,717 6. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m inin g....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 2,273 2,192 695 948 424 1,953 2,491 662 800 553 2,108 2,626 976 1,047 553 2,629 2,684 842 1,129 501 2,600 2,762 852 1,190 490 2,730 2,834 934 1,174 504 2,310 2,982 1,062 1,208 583 2,240 2,993 1,136 1,310 551 2,145 2,960 1,224 1,390 559 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 3,978 11,410 1,881 382 30,828 3,987 12,084 2,042 428 33,844 3,995 12,280 2,064 450 36,072 3,862 12,589 2,138 461 36,585 4,028 12,921 2,199 458 34,431 4,375 13,420 2,320 486 36,002 4,075 13,732 2,447 552 35,706 4,792 14,106 2,589 622 35,364 4,972 15,006 2,677 699 35,772 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 1,229 3,391 20,386 13,027 7,031 1,432 3,605 21,584 13,295 7,249 1,653 3,632 22,311 13,249 8,031 1,416 3,149 23,062 13,462 8,104 1,804 3,591 23,280 13,510 8,411 2,262 4,378 25,013 13,352 8,775 2,130 4,378 26,726 13,998 9,335 2,358 4,445 25,428 13,788 9,944 3,963 6,353 25,336 13,367 10,134 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 8,935 7,450 2,322 2,422 6,360 9,062 7,503 2,422 2,471 6,606 9,619 7,565 2,467 2,513 6,712 9,696 7,518 2,521 2,592 6,804 9,645 7,665 2,644 2,668 7,021 9,990 7,738 2,591 2,694 7,328 10,141 7,985 2,647 2,709 7,873 10,146 8,112 2,746 2,780 8,036 10,444 8,184 2,789 2,947 8,583 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 2,968 8,269 8,103 11,252 622 3,032 8,825 8,320 12,619 749 3,130 9,064 9,032 12,278 753 3,217 9,120 9,132 12,653 819 3,421 10,191 9,166 13,571 1,021 3,572 10,114 9,163 13,814 1,028 3,805 10,173 9,406 14,607 1,219 3,892 10,343 9,264 15,325 1,322 4,308 10,842 9,107 16,332 1,453 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit g o o d s ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 1,562 2,434 14,726 2,157 2,855 1,762 2,706 15,734 2,335 3,000 1,714 2,611 15,790 2,371 3,124 1,699 2,844 15,959 2,407 3,247 1,786 2,988 16,938 2,505 3,207 1,899 3,200 17,855 2,751 3,609 1,988 3,429 18,448 2,877 3,755 2,282 3,841 19,232 3,200 3,905 2,396 4,152 19,845 3,374 3,836 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 5,540 3,872 539 3,971 1,755 6,163 4,396 535 4,391 1,883 5,788 4,373 563 4,136 1,953 5,606 4,525 583 4,027 1,958 5,778 5,025 603 4,359 2,131 6,108 5,415 532 4,689 2,245 6,378 5,907 535 4,936 2,384 6,308 6,176 599 5,250 2,611 6,120 6,586 653 5,402 2,871 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 10,873 12,054 12,120 12,428 13,144 13,886 14,409 15,392 16,509 4,164 5,675 5,315 7,519 4,594 6,112 5,955 8,034 4,553 6,209 6,213 8,298 4,939 6,125 6,329 8,505 5,183 6,176 6,525 8,859 5,415 6,217 6,759 8,838 5,791 6,522 7,234 9,344 6,255 6,863 7,362 10,182 6,714 6,962 7,855 10,881 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products..................................... ............ Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 7,007 1,634 2,372 1,890 1,260 8,075 1,862 2,700 2,463 1,493 8,164 1,912 2,590 2,456 1,484 8,400 1,934 2,602 2,467 1,546 9,158 2,071 2,801 2,778 1,811 9,923 2,343 2,788 2,967 1,974 10,833 2,644 3,026 3,285 2,265 11,673 2,835 3,234 3,636 2,686 12,423 3,079 3,543 4,179 2,864 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 2,706 3,702 2,221 18,744 2,621 2,949 4,210 2,535 19,891 3,223 3,019 4,217 2,467 20,441 3,265 3,222 4,452 2,363 20,413 3,097 3,524 4,760 2,512 21,142 3,470 3,742 5,295 2,851 22,407 3,434 3,933 5,631 2,949 23,767 3,638 4,437 6,020 3,189 23,965 3,980 4,836 6,528 3,383 24,802 4,225 97 D-1. Gross output by industry, ISSB-iS—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Historical mausiry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p roducts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 2,571 2,842 1,223 4,550 2,913 2,773 3,429 1,218 4,726 3,496 2,742 3,502 1,179 4,552 3,500 2,958 3,742 1,121 4,532 3,413 3,441 4,176 1,087 4,621 3,599 3,559 4,632 1,152 4,499 3,872 3,764 5,129 1,167 4,760 4,083 3,956 5,787 1,223 4,852 4,418 3,932 8,326 1,194 4,936 4,732 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u c ts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 5,545 898 534 2,535 21,037 6,133 1,054 645 2,985 24,037 5,943 1,054 620 2,899 24,443 5,918 1,049 577 2,925 23,420 6,105 1,100 628 3,096 24,132 6,803 1,003 675 3,285 25,568 7,075 1,102 704 3,522 29,041 7,506 1,138 726 3,867 31,868 7,583 1,148 773 4,218 32,640 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts...................... Metal containers....................................... ....................... 4,231 6,507 3,207 3,178 2,908 5,275 6,775 4,025 3,442 3,093 4,979 7,082 3,657 3,518 3,111 4,681 7,752 3,787 3,648 3,262 5,380 8,248 4,244 3,827 3,257 5,746 8,679 4,745 3,901 3,235 6,502 9,054 4,988 4,155 3,461 7,249 10,019 5,600 4,464 3,647 7,768 11,343 6,537 5,353 3,835 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 1,616 7,683 2,214 4,491 2,643 1,837 7,659 2,838 5,517 2,979 1,739 7,779 2,702 5,640 2,986 1,742 7,884 2,348 5,060 2,943 1,851 8,104 2,505 5,936 3,271 1,885 8,594 2,609 6,198 3,432 2,064 9,079 2,875 6,368 3,710 2,060 10,049 3,138 7,258 4,208 2,142 10,944 3,557 7,541 4,410 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and genera tors................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 4,991 2,499 3,428 4,302 1,309 5,684 2,680 3,642 5,132 1,483 5,490 2,376 2,936 4,473 1,559 5,515 2,259 3,141 4,222 1,423 6,269 2,622 3,377 4,678 1,599 6,311 2,723 3,724 5,082 1,821 6,745 3,078 4,188 5,927 2,065 7,550 3,327 4,486 6,431 2,303 8,171 3,735 5,397 6,700 2,783 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 4,423 3,281 4,445 2,199 1,458 5,086 3,738 5,167 2,645 1,735 5,292 4,209 5,084 2,602 2,069 4,994 4,211 4,953 2,683 2,250 5,788 4,300 5,531 3,047 2,433 5,868 4,287 5,992 2,976 2,626 6,672 4,886 6,769 3,223 3,092 7,520 5,401 7,730 3,256 3,352 8,574 6,145 8,573 4,002 4,842 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission eq u ip m e n t........ ........................... Electrical industrial apparatus.............................. ........... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 720 2,032 2,551 2,679 2,987 769 2,394 2,932 3,234 3,408 830 2,441 2,961 3,269 3,437 853 2,407 3,005 3,245 3,434 900 2,726 3,189 3,564 3,812 921 3,157 3,019 3,717 4,233 985 3,413 3,204 4,148 4,569 1,045 3,873 3,602 4,737 5,051 1,311 4,480 4,108 5,483 5,430 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 2,761 1,205 1,355 3,124 1,795 3,238 1,396 1,466 3,860 2,333 3,158 1,370 1,684 4,955 2,484 3,204 1,475 1,967 6,494 2,467 3,445 1,804 2,151 7,925 2,948 3,485 1,939 2,020 8,433 2,947 3,762 2,153 2,306 7,748 3,143 4,172 2,744 2,730 8,520 4,289 4,471 3,642 2,981 9,673 5,555 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad equipm ent......................................................... 1,825 25,766 17,774 2,677 1,196 2,192 32,776 18,335 2,613 1,386 2,193 37,008 16,689 2,404 1,534 2,178 31,930 17,969 2,591 1,150 2,488 40,409 18,437 2,670 1,572 2,553 44,697 18,419 2,740 1,864 2,632 45,863 18,179 2,987 2,479 2,993 56,090 19,048 3,317 2,919 3,543 55,498 22,843 3,662 3,313 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum en ts.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 136 584 2,521 799 994 177 695 3,180 897 917 166 671 3,235 980 840 181 605 3,159 966 620 210 674 2,944 1,040 607 232 959 2,877 1,160 629 279 1,213 2,952 1,208 616 301 1,369 3,431 1,296 714 309 1,471 3,445 1,454 752 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 1,388 431 1,383 1,818 2,857 1,483 554 1,458 2,071 3,053 1,664 533 1,451 2,187 3,122 1,664 506 1,518 2,297 3,151 1,769 545 1,532 2,341 3,464 2,018 660 1,682 2,416 3,650 2,238 730 1,792 2,521 3,866 2,707 831 2,060 2,839 4,050 3,498 917 2,211 2,938 4,193 98 D-1. G ross ou tp u t by industry, 1958-95— C ontinued (Millions of 1972 dollars) industry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 11,701 6,015 16,507 7,229 3,365 12,034 5,885 17,993 7,193 4,014 12,279 5,910 18,393 7,544 4,054 12,050 5,713 19,086 6,418 4,159 12,556 5,757 19,944 6,928 4,585 13,035 5,762 21,692 6,893 5,206 13,630 5,717 22,954 7,393 5,965 14,414 5,773 23,179 7,099 7,021 15,142 5,806 24,567 7,128 8,254 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s ...... ............................................ Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 716 857 2,997 11,118 12,344 771 893 3,003 11,846 13,380 778 909 3,321 12,605 14,063 791 1,037 3,392 13,283 14,899 808 1,132 3,472 14,313 16,556 859 1,129 3,302 15,260 17,636 914 971 3,198 16,380 18,754 1,039 1,012 3,286 18,048 19,962 1,131 1,175 3,480 19,993 21,534 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s ............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 9,711 1,581 50,187 36,530 56,075 10,505 1,753 54,651 37,315 60,120 11,176 1,804 56,646 37,356 61,790 11,609 1,794 58,316 36,993 63,133 12,411 1,915 61,963 37,758 68,220 12,985 1,960 64,458 38,265 71,036 13,918 2,120 67,347 40,145 77,050 14,400 2,111 72,302 40,957 82,393 15,338 2,266 77,031 44,806 85,070 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 12,100 10,458 25,032 39,778 43,878 13,132 9,316 25,075 41,967 44,747 13,868 9,756 26,296 44,278 48,311 14,318 13,156 26,610 46,279 52,969 14,618 8,605 27,090 48,749 56,577 15,313 8,375 27,441 50,817 60,058 16,238 8,376 28,186 53,033 61,833 16,892 10,919 29,538 55,723 65,939 17,825 12,966 30,550 58,220 68,346 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 2,329 13,456 3,665 8,617 2,027 2,594 13,642 3,899 10,698 2,594 3,015 13,417 3,931 10,711 2,323 3,160 14,158 4,194 11,764 2,342 3,789 14,068 4,470 12,723 2,453 4,547 14,991 4,445 13,366 2,659 4,740 15,947 4,616 15,299 2,322 5,399 15,322 4,701 16,768 2,648 5,690 16,300 5,045 18,335 2,841 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ se rv ic e s ..................................... 17,510 15,257 4,177 5,076 12,315 17,518 16,410 4,227 5,668 13,061 17,154 17,431 3,443 5,813 13,244 18,977 16,669 3,871 6,276 13,490 19,914 17,404 3,950 6,546 14,202 19,974 18,738 3,625 6,898 14,746 20,125 19,443 4,009 6,979 16,749 21,436 19,903 3,584 7,501 17,080 23,282 20,627 4,201 7,644 17,402 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 7,620 3,134 11,143 8,232 5,644 8,110 3,321 11,608 8,824 5,758 8,589 3,588 11,571 9,340 5,984 9,271 3,547 12,415 9,654 6,098 9,888 3,915 12,685 10,151 6,248 10,582 4,110 15,224 10,482 6,379 11,253 4,754 14,604 10,905 6,541 11,957 5,064 14,125 11,431 6,751 12,912 5,382 14,180 12,275 7,107 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 867 1,170 4,886 0 0 1,096 1,194 5,150 0 0 1,045 1,172 5,370 0 0 911 1,204 5,608 0 0 1,029 1,159 5,946 0 0 1,285 1,297 6,039 0 0 1,292 1,363 6,235 0 0 1,496 1,343 6,509 0 0 1,670 1,356 6,759 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 82,357 0 0 6,882 0 0 90,256 0 0 6,716 0 0 89,445 0 0 6,756 0 0 92,197 0 0 6,551 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 97,451 103,622 107,676 114,775 114,668 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,347 6,144 5,905 6,519 6,428 0 0 0 0 0 D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Historical muusuy 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 11,412 27,276 1,341 16,571 14,226 11,219 28,033 1,741 15,186 14,535 11,182 28,052 1,929 16,164 15,352 11,488 29,256 1,730 15,287 15,247 11,526 30,626 1,717 18,128 15,313 11,768 31,556 2,093 17,814 15,179 11,328 30,508 2,217 19,218 16,024 11,165 28,685 2,222 19,715 15,096 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore mining ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 2,312 3,195 1,193 923 519 1,882 3,305 1,287 1,167 543 1,423 3,264 1,348 1,497 611 2,194 3,465 1,279 1,474 587 1,970 3,557 1,233 1,613 657 1,733 3,385 1,517 1,664 633 1,647 3,346 1,463 1,546 641 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2,499 3,278 1,395 1,666 618. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying......... .................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair con struction............................ 5,133 15,960 2,609 743 36,535 5,051 16,652 2,673 730 35,290 5,202 17,121 2,713 721 35,621 5,545 17,928 2,766 736 35,015 5,076 17,832 2,757 729 35,470 5,442 17,819 2,849 775 36,404 5,435 17,617 3,443 782 34,242 5,558 16,913 3,542 802 33,683 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 6,476 5,790 28,602 13,784 10,519 8,490 5,843 29,190 13,471 10,762 7,786 5,767 28,919 13,465 11,064 4,886 4,160 29,199 13,241 11,211 3,503 4,185 30,223 13,805 11,751 3,094 3.987 32,712 14,811 12,498 2,991 4,351 29,800 15,038 13,281 2,931 4,613 31,969 15,667 12,903 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mil! products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................. ................. Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 11,372 8,102 2,996 3,200 9,022 11,558 8,155 3,134 3,275 9,587 12,010 8,334 3,080 3,194 10,423 12,098 8,030 3,072 3,268 11,140 12,040 7,991 3,175 3,315 11,793 12,811 8,335 3,163 3,449 11,695 12,278 8,253 3,238 3,658 11,917 12,765 8,070 2,947 3,746 12,610 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco manufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 4,697 11,568 9,119 16,255 1,685 4,967 11,623 8,972 16,791 2,077 5,262 11,951 8,658 16,479 2,349 5,789 12,041 8,802 16,332 2,381 5,947 12,374 8,890 16,786 2,665 6,300 12,527 9,244 17,688 3,138 6,579 12,255 9,664 16,912 3,531 6,639 12,883 9,981 16,172 2,909 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products .,.................................. Logging.............................................................................. 2,311 4,402 20,634 3,688 4,119 2,577 4,920 21,244 3,942 4,307 2,696 5,431 21,326 4,456 4,168 2,439 5,588 19,809 4,352 4,620 2,651 6,199 20,702 4,771 3,740 2,821 7,544 22,660 4,924 4,434 2,725 7,856 23,229 5,078 4,468 2,592 6,785 21,547 4,355 4,872 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 6,219 7,160 670 5,359 3,014 6,157 7,458 642 5,714 3,069 6,064 7,051 602 5,850 3,411 6,113 7,576 481 5,632 3,085 6,082 8,511 434 6,073 3,044 7,074 10,044 466 7,281 3,726 6,781 9,761 389 7,644 3,907 6,370 9,219 426 6,717 3,666 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 16,574 6,750 7,197 8,605 11,020 17,495 7,168 7,415 8,571 11,446 18,805 7,495 7,780 8,854 11,987 18,234 7,303 7,484 7,890 11,822 18,531 7,258 7,516 7,986 11,758 19,855 7,979 8,252 8,268 13,248 21,739 8,538 8,523 8,809 13,852 23,225 8,436 8,610 8,522 13,451 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 12,324 3,206 3,811 4,105 2,873 13,085 3,238 4,267 4,625 3,657 14,309 3,553 4,358 5,218 3,619 14,433 3,123 4,053 5,051 3,460 14,631 3,082 4,231 5,390 3,901 16,098 3,547 4,386 5,529 4,154 17,803 4,012 4,470 5,983 5,086 18,005 5,009 4,119 6,130 5,344 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs .................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 5,345 6,849 3,228 26,373 4,072 5,715 7,349 3,285 28,152 4,817 6,362 7,567 3,263 29,243 5,105 6,805 8,130 3,392 29,591 4,720 7,197 8,013 3,502 30,394 5,276 7,921 9,304 3,611 31,438 5,873 8,492 9,865 3,878 30,054 6,498 9,221 10,339 3,876 32,863 6,443 100 D-1. Gross ©utput by industry, 1958-9S~G©ntinu®d (Millions of 1972 dollars) Historical maustry 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ....................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r......................... . G la s s ........ .......................................................................... 3,923 6,842 1,209 5,035 4,687 4,078 7,680 1,211 5,276 4,807 4,289 8,212 1,095 5,071 5,040 4,213 7,900 1,015 4,730 4,854 4,002 8,381 1,057 4,475 5,104 4,227 10,550 1,063 4,529 5,583 4,226 12,203 948 4,502 6,063 4,553 11,762 996 4,306 5,721 61. 82. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p roducts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 7,571 1,058 765 3,663 30,418 7,854 1,117 739 4,046 31,351 8,026 1,142 859 3,901 32,338 7,737 1,055 721 3,652 28,952 8,123 1,073 738 3,536 26,936 9,174 1,129 811 4,185 28,881 9,537 1,156 891 4,685 34,950 9,148 1,217 956 4,923 37,960 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers....................................... ........................ 7,465 9,415 6,385 5,042 4,163 7,642 9,557 6,983 5,357 4,564 8,127 10,637 7,175 5,516 4,668 6,979 10,133 6,523 4,674 4,929 6,921 9,820 6,600 4,541 4,717 7,821 11,175 7,699 5,124 4,873 8,879 12,570 9,312 5,295 5,105 9,210 11,717 9,067 5,156 5,215 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware............................ 1,964 11,880 3,474 7,274 4,327 2,176 12,080 3,515 8,155 4,418 2,352 12,354 3,419 8,088 4,614 2,120 12,287 2,878 6,922 4,284 2,197 12,246 2,672 7,366 4,458 2,083 13,300 3,045 8,222 4,960 2,180 14,812 3,637 9,065 5,333 1,861 14,337 3,481 8,179 5,055 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 8,287 3,795 5,171 6,818 2,652 8,717 4,131 4,953 6,949 2,632 9,036 4,877 4,590 7,273 2,932 8,619 4,835 4,585 6,992 2,770 8,421 5,010 4,515 6,848 2,609 9,240 5,411 5,574 7,898 2,811 10,298 6,081 6,718 9,195 3,196 10,420 6,496 7,525 10,511 3,427 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 8,531 5,961 8,165 4,998 4,318 8,124 5,913 7,743 4,655 4,905 8,467 5,962 8,368 4,641 6,081 7,511 5,446 7,908 4,437 6,139 6,397 4,901 7,268 4,015 5,797 7,155 5,866 8,149 4,450 6,652 8,731 6,758 9,491 5,062 8,140 9,130 6,925 9,867 5,397 9,920 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission e q uipm e nt.................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 1,384 4,744 4,318 5,321 5,488 1,360 5,167 4,334 5,347 5,995 1,488 6,115 4,660 5,602 6,146 1,410 5,951 4,566 5,178 5,910 1,374 6,439 4,476 4,923 5,740 1,400 8,518 5,043 5,376 6,671 1,757 9,568 5,745 6,350 7,436 1,885 8,743 5,696 6,630 7,034 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring ............................................... Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 4,404 3,408 3,050 10,544 6,129 4,705 3,767 3,240 11,542 5,968 5,113 3,901 3,752 11,184 6,505 4,888 3,496 4,286 9,776 6,169 4,761 3,892 4,283 8,686 5,987 5,533 4,402 4,502 9,032 8,416 5,973 5,111 4,942 9,534 9,364 5,578 4,746 5,199 9,483 9,220 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor vehicles .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft.................................................................. ............. 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad equipm e nt......................................................... 3,329 48,890 26,230 3,930 2,746 3,575 58,052 27,780 3,858 2,227 3,717 58,574 26,149 3,917 2,769 3,779 47,586 21,880 3,699 2,538 3,879 60,821 18,556 3,657 2,652 4,277 64,972 16,986 4,363 2,549 4,774 75,506 19,851 4,810 2,830 4,721 83,565 19,557 4,831 3,220 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instruments ......... ........................... Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt............................... 358 1,758 3,571 1,621 927 410 2,262 3,539 1,867 1,008 388 2,666 3,558 2,101 1,112 475 3,020 3,519 1,994 956 483 3,817 3,273 2,219 964 661 5,050 3,358 2,629 1,105 671 4,877 4,096 2,822 1,163 837 3,468 4,545 2,984 1,317 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s .................................................. ...... Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 3,627 949 2,320 2,804 4,349 3,888 1,074 2,476 3.019 4,468 4,382 1,097 2,503 3,260 4,799 4,375 983 2,328 3,126 4,746 4,620 990 2,370 3,150 4,799 5,424 1,001 2,513 4,073 5,405 6,249 1,067 2,531 4,142 5,494 6,813 1,038 2,214 4,146 5,137 101 D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Historical muusiry 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad tra nspo rtatio n................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 14,659 5,799 25,115 6,391 10,120 14,842 5,945 25,582 6,759 11,410 15,107 6,060 26,075 5,958 12,226 14,993 6,149 26,575 6,159 11,825 14,419 6,058 28,717 6,279 12,013 15,112 5,980 29,981 7,303 13,082 16,506 6,000 32,212 7,886 13,871 16,457 6,170 31,546 7,160 15,098 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and te le visio n .............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 1,227 1,123 3,412 21,132 22,734 1,328 1,337 3,424 23,120 24,478 1,395 1,585 3,915 25,665 26,360 1,465 1,279 3,872 28,024 28,209 1,508 1,400 4,184 29,455 29,632 1,617 1,636 4,513 31,560 31,661 1,721 1,848 4,466 34,599 34,164 1,717 1,860 4,464 36,840 34,336 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ...................... 16,100 2,162 79,893 45,028 87,620 17,134 2,334 85,761 43,486 96,155 18,255 2,333 89,233 41,961 101,134 18,943 2,434 90,974 46,522 99,191 19,642 2,409 96,226 46,785 104,441 20,138 2,582 103,870 48,548 112,531 19,530 3,263 106,914 50,375 120,029 19,036 3,104 105,169 50,308 117,298 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking .............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance ........................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 18,813 13,377 30,143 60,765 71,212 20,178 15,145 31,621 63,499 75,439 21,622 12,545 32,265 66,892 81,059 23,003 12,138 35,990 69,351 85,194 23,789 13,768 38,124 72,536 91,111 24,913 13,613 38,631 76,783 97,918 26,190 15,165 38,756 80,813 105,645 27,854 12,554 37,322 85,622 107,823 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 6,517 15,678 5,166 18,699 2,956 6,683 15,933 4,726 26,216 2,821 7,082 15,519 4,743 28,729 3,130 8,138 15,976 4,769 31,529 3,249 7,969 16,639 4,377 35,291 2,969 9,122 17,617 4,310 38,265 3,032 9,638 18,666 3,851 40,825 3,060 9,638 18,056 3,951 44,579 3,208 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s..................................... 25,768 20,749 3,769 7,181 18,530 23,160 21,936 3,932 7,826 18,889 26,133 22,412 3,773 8,098 20,218 27,403 22,418 4,588 7,940 21,381 26,343 23,402 4,649 8,621 21,941 27,339 24,339 4,504 8,602 23,056 29,919 27,582 5,579 10,146 25,253 32,115 26,630 5,520 11,196 25,285 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospita ls........................................................................... Medical services, except h o s p ita ls ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 14,363 5,572 15,309 13,301 7,367 15,661 6,869 15,156 13,632 7,471 17,237 7,196 13,672 14,271 7,701 18,713 8,174 13,566 14,237 7,970 20,736 9,127 13,175 14,387 8,177 22,298 9,841 13,463 15,547 8,192 23,510 10,643 13,579 16,125 8,532 24,726 11,068 13,376 16,358 8,677 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal enterprises .............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 1,975 1,419 6,879 0 0 2,315 1,444 7,020 0 0 2,232 1,507 7,277 0 0 2,217 1,530 7,522 0 0 2,305 1,450 7,647 0 0 2,623 1,426 8,101 0 0 2,452 1,435 8,352 0 0 2,745 1,465 8,491 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 112,293 0 0 5,932 0 0 119,362 0 0 5,640 0 0 120,220 0 0 5,335 0 0 112,588 0 0 4,993 0 0 121,343 0 0 4,766 0 0 129,581 0 0 4,631 0 0 132,500 0 0 4,486 0 0 113,977 0 0 3,878 0 102 >-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued /lillions of 1972 dollars) Historical industry 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 11,929 27,311 1,825 19,665 17,343 12,230 28,591 2,020 21,621 16,230 12,536 29,309 2,080 19,887 17,163 12,530 28,390 2,161 20,888 17,372 12,178 30,726 2,355 21,940 18,233 12,324 31,092 2,094 21,969 17,048 13,828 34,888 2,349 24,646 19,125 14,430 36,399 2,450 25,714 19,952 6. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m inin g....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 0. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 1,970 3,495 1,344 1,241 588 2,055 3,617 1,433 1,410 624 2,208 3,842 1,141 1,320 644 2,246 4,044 1,615 1,313 630 1,891 4,259 1,689 1,397 626 1,949 3,870 1,394 1,133 554 2,013 3,996 1,507 1,463 644 2,014 4,000 749 1,098 506 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. i1. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 5,974 16,166 3,260 816 38,973 6,283 15,925 3,656 822 41,053 6,416 16,169 4,081 868 42,953 6,166 16,723 4,431 917 44,898 7,180 16,334 4,501 939 46,047 7,871 17,892 4,306 899 47,716 7,581 19,704 4,231 884 50,345 7,656 17,597 3,665 766 48,296 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 3,026 4,482 29,786 15,987 12,622 2,995 4,188 33,735 16,342 13,418 2,529 3,433 33,417 16,565 14,434 2,618 3,676 33,295 16,408 15,251 2,745 4,030 33,599 15,835 14,747 2,832 4,134 34,934 16,497 14,105 2,949 3,965 35,132 17,083 14,815 3,160 3,612 34,901 16,971 15,140 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 12,985 8,061 2,501 3,262 11,503 13,514 8,289 3,254 3,385 11,640 14,286 7,956 3,210 3,877 12,440 14,293 7,887 2,704 4,115 13,641 14,201 7,913 2,779 4,133 13,808 14,023 8,030 2,852 4,225 13,240 13,820 8,355 2,950 4,370 13,564 13,599 8,062 2,931 4,587 13,398 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 6,511 13,183 10,205 15,763 2,630 6,830 14,295 10,480 17,968 3,034 7,331 12,823 9,957 19,021 3,701 7,949 14,658 9,957 18,539 3,892 7,999 14,552 9,596 18,489 4,302 8,084 15,139 10,404 17,252 4,182 8,135 15,619 10,613 17,282 3,832 7,889 16,148 10,248 15,572 3,746 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 2,373 6,788 20,960 4,540 4,963 2,744 6,991 21,851 5,071 4,688 3,143 7,494 23,252 5,934 5,214 3,371 7,643 23,910 6,095 5,001 3,404 7,490 22,507 5,674 4,982 3,161 6,960 23,868 5,307 4,315 2,942 7,349 21,461 5,610 4,081 2,823 6,794 19,376 5,065 3,739 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 5,995 8,737 375 5,911 3,119 6,807 9,709 372 6,609 3,418 6,975 11,164 317 7,404 4,070 6,935 11,332 329 7,835 4,384 7,035 11,003 297 7,664 4,459 5,943 9,631 260 6,835 4,472 5,763 9,789 269 7,181 4,661 5,280 9,682 260 6,764 4,695 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 19,865 7,654 8,134 8,128 12,486 21,947 8,458 8,420 8,565 13,363 22,745 9,056 8,849 9,867 14,328 23,697 9,466 9,075 10,603 15,189 24,484 9,119 9,320 10,857 15,681 24,500 8,793 9,119 11,155 16,282 25,132 8,912 9,068 11,637 17,008 25,036 8,527 8,867 11,619 17,123 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 14,869 4,453 3,761 4,544 5,007 17,106 4,429 4,367 5,490 5,519 19,213 4,718 4,722 6,128 6,199 19,700 4,649 5,334 6,528 6,608 19,670 4,941 5,917 6,806 7,159 19,371 5,140 6,023 6,204 6,615 19,248 5,383 6,355 6,915 6,728 16,188 4,654 6,130 6,459 5,400 51. 52. 53. 54. 55 Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 9,084 9,551 3,372 32,391 5,559 9,870 10,223 3,776 35,531 5,396 10,128 10,543 3,999 37,116 6,302 10,607 11,292 4,080 37,271 5,806 10,885 11,021 4,250 40,202 5,452 11,227 10,970 4,398 37,766 4,218 12,206 11,368 4,290 36,310 4,869 12,192 11,015 3,883 34,098 4,725 103 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Historical maustry 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic D roducts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 4,344 10,042 1,020 4,165 5,413 4,484 11,714 1,008 4,371 5,986 4,427 14,404 1,050 4,334 6,197 3,828 15,571 977 4,366 6,761 4,083 15,327 718 4,008 6,119 3,698 15,309 706 3,975 6,014 3,842 16,275 698 3,847 6,112 3,387 15,172 613 3,425 5,726 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related products.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 8,161 1,035 782 4,237 27,908 8,187 1,061 787 4,712 29,325 8,940 1,107 783 4,998 28,835 9,588 1,189 765 5,411 30,824 9,713 1,139 849 5,561 31,774 8,638 911 760 4,975 26,068 8,228 852 768 5,031 28,395 7,391 681 652 4,269 17,259 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 8,099 8,683 7,156 4,372 4,738 8,126 9,896 8,802 4,925 4,879 8,662 10,904 9,198 4,939 5,217 9,330 11,512 9,792 5,024 5,088 9,378 11,600 9,965 5,090 5,117 7,224 8,919 9,484 4,474 4,712 7,774 10,246 9,392 4,595 4,727 5,200 7,437 7,874 3,735 4,193 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 1,710 12,249 2,484 6,779 4,445 1,773 13,044 2,852 8,301 5,122 1,993 14,240 3,252 9,423 5,543 2,133 14,639 3,608 9,669 5,736 2,149 15,270 3,823 9,314 5,739 1,981 14,320 3,339 8,134 5,187 1,989 14,074 3,344 8,148 5,509 1,698 11,999 2,726 6,642 4,692 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and ge nerators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 9,262 5,395 7,061 9,788 2,664 10,174 5,976 7,107 9,276 2,601 11,179 6,574 7,434 10,079 3,096 11,876 7,046 7,006 11,660 3,474 12,348 6,897 8,404 11,191 3,741 11,049 6,094 7,426 10,953 3,661 11,239 5,888 7,175 11,321 3,785 9,247 4,539 5,531 8,667 2,898 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 7,464 5,788 8,759 4,861 8,915 7,376 5,758 8,917 4,915 11,115 8,030 5,556 9,802 5,244 13,938 8,827 5,916 10,251 5,776 18,112 9,397 5,960 10,883 6,117 23,460 9,405 5,808 10,604 5,947 24,790 9,212 5,852 10,683 5,990 27,966 7,855 4,747 8,666 4,859 26,861 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 1,635 6,301 4,720 5,171 6,182 1,758 7,948 4,822 5,715 6,927 2,216 8,791 5,569 6,061 7,758 2,362 9,714 6,159 6,662 7,865 2,493 9,919 6,572 6,886 8,163 2,887 10,482 6,273 6,572 7,396 3,256 11,825 6,449 6,757 7,473 3,127 11,358 5,164 5,411 6,484 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 4,222 4,185 3,736 9,758 7,849 5,000 4,952 3,608 10,168 10,262 5,347 6,087 4,852 11,229 13,030 5,481 6,922 5,284 12,835 15,232 5,990 6,751 6,490 14,882 19,344 5,912 6,436 6,779 15,543 19,913 6,107 6,625 7,063 16,195 20,378 5,795 5,873 7,321 16,787 20,411 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad equipm e nt......................................................... 4,024 57,191 17,951 5,156 2,978 4,740 74,443 16,276 5,231 2,385 5,856 85,632 16,774 5,362 2,659 6,104 89,095 18,646 5,358 3,209 6,010 81,577 22,798 5,338 4,150 5,435 60,571 24,286 5,187 3,938 5,951 62,355 24,034 5,245 1,929 5,607 55,982 22,478 4,648 983 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum en ts.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 553 3,084 3,969 3,069 1,318 559 3,673 4,270 3,182 1,484 692 3;693 5,190 3,277 1,804 782 3,948 5,655 3,510 2,292 785 3,381 5,553 3,786 2,434 707 2,733 5,567 3,796 2,379 519 3,016 5,630 3,839 2,369 400 3,027 5,408 3,688 2,252 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 6,099 938 2,241 3,608 4,709 6,874 1,142 2,564 4,000 5,002 7,345 1,111 2,890 4,399 5,662 8,233 1,217 2,803 4,506 5,748 9,089 939 2,577 4,598 5,682 8,634 893 2,489 4,439 5,454 8,418 870 2,655 4,736 5,561 7,903 817 2,346 4,184 4,864 104 D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued {Millions of 1972 dollars) Historical inausiry 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transoortation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 14,705 6,068 28,913 6,706 14,514 15,478 6,145 32,492 7,163 15,351 16,105 6,188 35,328 8,250 16,435 16,541 6,316 38,324 7,974 18,457 17,486 6,559 39,991 8,994 20,268 16,425 6,452 35,762 8,866 19,054 15,482 6,254 35,457 9,212 17,094 14,118 5,986 33,644 8,941 16,129 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation services .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 1,722 1,630 4,977 39,494 35,836 1,749 1,973 4,962 42,765 38,357 1,854 2,058 5,401 46,858 40,958 1,990 2,020 5,408 51,640 42,819 2,065 2,097 5,377 55,863 44,366 1,997 2,193 5,605 61,007 44,860 1,967 2,259 5,579 64,560 45,114 1,863 2,139 5,638 64,797 43,356 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... 18,428 Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. 2,853 Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... 105,719 Eating and drinking p la c e s................................ ............. 52,420 Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 118,161 18,456 2,857 109,329 55,776 126,017 18,016 2,925 114,656 57,450 134,508 18,573 2,946 123,286 57,906 140,638 19,242 3,025 127,172 58,850 143,396 19,449 3,229 122,949 58,266 142,208 19,562 3,380 129,409 58,908 143,986 18,801 3,412 126,283 59,414 142,314 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs.......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 30,111 14,939 39,226 88,657 114,341 31,063 14,281 46,558 93,656 118,250 33,343 17,380 46,907 99,043 124,780 35,362 20,332 48,899 104,576 131,196 37,255 21,067 49,359 110,031 138,791 38,110 23,693 55,613 114,385 144,271 37,165 26,042 55,501 116,605 147,469 37,539 27,397 55,451 118,426 147,317 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. Advertising.................... .................................................... 10,017 18,004 3,629 43,155 2,917 10,970 18,331 3,391 45,878 3,347 10,992 19,699 3,557 48,544 3,440 11,469 19,797 3,566 54,285 3,818 11,719 19,914 3,559 59,326 4,092 11,709 19,344 3,517 63,563 4,384 12,179 19,787 3,524 67,366 4,647 12,276 19,612 3,557 70,120 4,838 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 33,339 26,514 5,797 11,676 26,976 33,667 27,437 5,520 11,792 27,479 36,472 29,155 6,098 13,120 28,972 39,266 30,508 6,880 13,838 30,220 41,691 31,584 6,936 14,698 31,501 43,533 31,391 7,069 15,606 34,996 46,283 32,528 7,449 16,488 38,388 44,775 33,455 7,809 17,355 42,119 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except h o s p ita ls............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 26,469 12,318 13,847 15,966 8,702 28,492 12,719 14,200 16,243 8,859 30,130 13,135 14,848 16,975 9,205 31,178 14,075 15,066 18,270 9,672 31,942 14,512 15,735 19,388 9,964 32,745 15,031 16,522 20,288 10,185 33,314 15,609 16,800 20,627 11,117 32,920 15,743 16,441 20,793 11,842 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orporation...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger transit ............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 2,721 1,511 8,522 0 0 3,276 1,496 8,531 0 0 3,179 1,624 8,561 0 0 3,363 1,885 8,830 0 0 3,444 1,821 9,434 0 0 3,307 1,827 9,675 0 0 3,346 1,951 10,341 0 0 3,314 2,074 10,998 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction industry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-wor!d indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 101,514 0 0 3,616 0 0 109,180 0 0 3,732 0 0 116,142 0 0 3,826 0 0 121,624 0 0 3,772 0 0 119,592 0 0 3,588 0 0 107,624 0 0 3,367 0 0 104,343 0 0 3,318 0 0 98,900 0 0 3,100 0 105 D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Industry 1990 alternatives 1995 alternatives Low Moderate High Low Moderate High Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k ............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 14,306 37,017 2,456 28,099 21,360 14,734 37,487 2,464 28,676 21,890 14,874 37,659 2,495 28,921 22,145 14,209 37,497 2,460 29,950 22,453 14,908 38,108 2,472 30,367 22,997 15,109 38,328 2,518 30,623 23,310 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r.............. 2,096 4,827 1,180 1,374 621 2,109 5,018 1,251 1,475 638 2,177 5,141 1,240 1,536 642 2,159 5,469 1,514 1,588 711 2,163 5,600 1,538 1,691 713 2,263 5,747 1,501 1,768 714 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 9,538 17,554 4,757 1,107 56,568 9,940 17,663 5,084 1,147 58,253 10,237 17,545 5,311 1,168 59,193 10,999 17,521 5,605 1,372 62,991 11,244 17,700 5,894 1,365 63,941 11,607 17,518 6,186 1,382 64,978 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 4,147 5,166 38,967 17,998 17,726 3,996 4,826 40,183 18,814 18,491 4,072 4,871 40,538 19,042 18,691 4,913 6,373 42,124 18,796 19,733 4,473 5,519 43,200 19,868 20,406 4,556 5,540 43,531 20,141 20,576 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S uga r.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 15,676 7,954 2,989 4,836 17,063 16,218 8,251 3,069 4,926 17,963 16,441 8,357 3,035 4,882 18,188 17,288 7,870 3,034 5,029 19,908 17,714 8,359 3,147 5,120 20,571 17,950 8,514 3,090 5,039 20,731 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 10,248 17,587 10,524 19,786 5,201 11,023 18,187 10,737 20,673 5,638 11,263 18,387 10,944 21,254 6,290 12,079 18,705 10,739 23,058 6,331 12,814 19,352 11,016 23,587 6,718 13,054 19,576 11,314 24,271 7,640 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill p roducts............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Lo gging.............................................................................. 3,388 8,453 23,557 6,742 5,372 3,510 8,847 24,254 7,134 5,663 3,598 8,966 24,371 7.331 6,291 3,827 9,740 26,804 8,044 6,640 3,903 10,020 27,040 8,316 6,762 4,009 10,120 27,023 8,534 7,646 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 7,032 12,383 222 8,340 5,238 7,370 13,379 218 8,836 5,600 8,541 16,095 223 9,625 6,060 8,393 14,481 192 9,563 5,659 8,564 15,491 194 10,019 6,117 10,272 19,500 204 11,145 6,784 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 32,081 10,387 10,134 13,932 19,942 33,142 10,851 10,532 14,595 20,652 33,693 11,183 10,887 15,089 21,226 37,550 11,832 11,118 15,727 22,132 37,773 12,178 11,483 16,294 22,667 38,289 12,593 11,960 16,932 23,404 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 22,817 6,555 7,463 8,821 7,711 23,867 6,821 7,728 9,188 8,109 24,423 6,931 7,977 9,442 8,328 27,964 8,032 8,498 10,655 9,506 28,253 8,059 8,641 10,747 9,656 28,795 8,139 8,957 11,026 9,882 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products ................................................ Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s....................................................... 18,960 13,763 4,845 ‘ 37,450 5,182 20,125 14,433 5,141 38,440 5,306 20,494 14,838 5,452 39,142 5,359 24,214 15,896 5,593 40,053 5,537 24,656 16,385 5,860 40,920 5,637 24,901 16,867 6,285 41,820 5,695 106 0 -1 Qr@ss output by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected 1995 alternatives 1990 alternatives Industry Low Moderate High Low Moderate High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 4,312 22,029 689 3,296 7,260 4,519 23,223 692 3,294 7,564 4,595 24,291 675 3,178 7,753 5,031 27,353 748 3,196 8,451 5,166 27,821 737 3,219 8,613 5,236 29,133 708 3,047 8,830 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related products.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 8,968 906 738 5,850 24,264 10,134 984 769 6,419 25,619 11,535 1,150 809 6,901 25,818 10,192 1,081 805 7,078 29,703 11,701 1,156 835 7,647 30,394 13,735 1,398 893 8,299 30,362 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p roducts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 7,246 10,419 11,002 4,838 5,218 7,714 11,384 11,575 5,042 5,475 7,986 11,947 11,903 5,199 5,576 8,835 12,734 13,431 5,694 6,014 9,149 13,639 13,689 5,789 6,207 9,466 14,341 14,042 5,976 6,310 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 2,184 15,848 3,366 9,045 6,223 2,378 18,295 3,515 9,768 6,600 2,757 20,247 3,567 10,183 7,001 2,561 18,836 3,863 10,910 7,412 2,767 21,891 3,966 11,553 7,690 3,319 24,626 4,013 12,063 8,227 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 13,389 8,214 8,019 12,791 3,907 14,480 8,731 8,440 13,608 4,274 15,119 8,970 8,947 14,227 4,565 16,605 11,068 9,950 15,993 4,691 17,470 11,126 10,101 16,431 5,060 18,236 11,322 10,761 17,180 5,450 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 10,066 6,122 12,080 6,514 47,301 10,664 6,315 12,622 6,833 50,390 11,350 6,533 13,108 7,089 54,140 11,783 7,189 14,730 7,798 63,171 12,269 7,211 14,882 7,961 63,830 13,205 7,481 15,467 8,273 68,623 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household appliance s..................................................... 4,334 14,143 7,306 8,321 9,827 4,575 14,817 7,782 8,770 10,374 4,847 15,993 8,329 9,220 11,142 5,271 16,305 8,970 10,580 12,422 5,403 16,792 9,278 10,689 12,596 5,760 18,453 10,009 11,243 13,615 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 6,952 10,745 10,113 24,630 38,857 7,495 11,665 10,886 24,212 41,146 7,934 12,137 11,850 24,751 42,765 7,850 14,527 12,281 30,720 53,180 8,466 14,973 12,922 28,453 52,990 9,070 15,463 14,255 28,979 54,633 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad e q uipm e nt......................................................... 7,776 76,099 27,393 6,591 1,902 8,195 85,001 26,184 6,535 2,109 8,621 87,563 26,311 6,551 2,279 9,460 91,719 31,209 8,099 2,615 9,673 101,577 28,300 7,613 2,752 10,221 104,330 28,345 7,561 2,967 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 628 3,852 7,228 5,129 3,497 682 4,534 7,543 5,454 3,688 740 5,456 7,923 5,753 3,866 806 4,493 8,641 6,248 4,463 843 5,395 8,762 6,463 4,508 921 6,746 9,258 6,850 4,723 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go ods...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 12,198 1,128 2,918 5,322 6,492 12,864 1,147 3,040 5,489 6,742 13,369 1,278 3,262 5,664 6,923 15,532 1,369 3,362 6,206 7,757 15,698 1,336 3,436 6,234 7,815 16,271 1,523 3,749 6,450 8,016 107 D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected Industry 1990 alternatives 1995 alternatives Low Moderate High Low Moderate High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transoortation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 17,123 6,651 43,339 9,918 25,309 17,845 6,885 45,429 10,109 26,772 18,704 7,214 47,492 10,412 27,582 19,455 7,167 50,867 10,677 32,437 19,974 7,398 52,161 10,777 32,852 21,139 7,866 54,845 11,193 33,662 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation services .................................................. Radio arid television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 2,043 2,888 7,639 104,235 55,972 2,098 3,015 8,090 111,737 58,947 2,142 3,132 8,435 118,657 61,188 2,183 3,469 9,193 134,855 65,768 2,233 3,515 9,490 138,551 67,853 2,289 3,659 9,920 147,253 70,655 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ...................... 16,664 3,896 150,689 66,122 177,273 16,469 4,049 157,220 69,579 189,086 16,643 4,244 165,795 71,580 201,955 15,004 4,271 169,638 71,330 204,416 15,136 4,412 174,891 75,385 215,802 15,497 4,686 186,772 78,040 233,620 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.................................................................... ...... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 51,024 37,228 69,552 152,965 191,278 53,787 39,252 72,705 158,690 199,923 55,865 40,902 75,976 160,517 206,836 61,494 44,861 80,500 179,783 225,411 63,068 46,023 82,560 181,690 229,972 65,595 48,072 86,874 162,864 238,436 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodginq p la ce s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s.................................. Advertising........................................................................ 16,693 22,318 3,833 106,806 5,376 17,392 23,114 3,938 113,156 5,566 17,883 23,944 4,081 117,910 5,762 20,123 24,419 4,040 135,291 5,793 20,314 25,115 4,150 137,739 5,982 20,860 26,244 4,354 143,283 6,252 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services ..................................... 51,427 38,579 8,127 22,595 47,166 53,961 39,911 8,221 23,683 48,664 56,733 42,300 8,429 24,756 50,257 56,592 42,557 8,375 26,664 51,085 59,208 43,599 8,457 27,297 52,403 63,081 46,996 8,758 28,685 54,578 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 44,402 21,870 18,669 25,054 12,303 46,708 23,135 19,121 26,089 12,545 48,373 23,663 19,775 27,158 12,920 53,318 26,627 20,399 28,362 12,661 54,584 27,358 20,652 29,114 12,947 56,578 27,869 21,545 30,538 13,493 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger transit ............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 4,494 2,057 11,540 0 0 4,757 2,097 11,865 0 0 4,968 2,185 12,393 0 0 5,410 2,043 11,961 0 0 5,581 2,109 12,360 0 0 5,847 2,243 13,134 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry................... ................................. Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 117,033 0 0 2,848 0 0 140,215 0 0 2,890 0 0 165,954 0 0 3,023 0 0 131,112 0 0 2,653 0 0 163,815 0 0 2,769 0 0 201,555 0 0 2,981 0 108 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95 (Thousands of jobs) Historical maustry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k............................................. C o tto rt...................................... ........................................... Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 1,635 939 469 1,022 1,445 1,551 979 565 960 1,436 1,471 937 523 942 1,424 1,406 924 485 830 1,430 1,318 896 426 794 1,411 1,210 873 401 775 1,356 1,147 859 361 742 1,335 1,132 852 322 727 1,232 1,019 816 200 676 1,163 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore mining ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 59 273 37 28 31 60 285 33 23 31 60 292 38 28 31 61 295 32 29 29 60 296 30 29 26 62 300 28 28 27 62 306 29 27 26 62 313 31 30 26 64 313 30 32 27 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 218 206 101 18 620 201 200 105 19 662 189 192 107 20 681 164 185 105 19 668 155 182 103 19 702 152 178 102 19 717 150 174 102 18 730 144 170 105 19 744 140 167 104 21 767 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 49 58 326 327 241 50 94 324 326 249 52 110 331 325 249 58 131 327 319 253 70 142 324 312 259 73 148 323 302 255 64 142 323 298 257 59 133 325 295 263 90 137 331 285 279 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 137 314 31 80 107 139 313 38 79 107 136 313 36 79 105 137 308 36 78 101 135 304 36 76 98 135 301 36 78 97 133 303 38 78 95 132 299 36 78 98 133 292 36 83 97 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Fioor covering m ills .......................................................... 108 141 94 612 36 111 144 95 619 39 115 145 94 605 39 115 143 91 581 37 117 144 90 583 38 119 144 89 572 39 124 143 90 575 40 127 144 87 587 42 136 145 84 611 45 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Lo gging.............................................................................. 69 208 1,057 132 135 74 221 1,100 143 143 70 216 1,104 147 141 66 215 1,085 148 136 67 221 1,129 152 133 67 214 1,144 156 132 68 216 1,159 160 137 73 230 1,204 167 133 78 236 1,243 175 129 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 287 240 43 242 118 305 261 43 259 124 288 250 42 255 128 258 245 38 244 124 256 257 37 257 127 254 264 36 260 128 253 275 35 273 130 249 288 34 288 139 246 300 36 307 150 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 401 166 323 153 437 415 175 328 156 446 427 178 335 160 459 425 179 336 163 462 430 188 338 162 468 431 191 339 164 470 434 194 346 169 479 442 201 355 175 491 460 210 360 184 513 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products.......... ....................................... Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 260 53 80 77 76 260 54 82 81 79 267 54 82 84 81 264 55 82 83 82 264 57 84 89 88 265 60 83 93 94 270 60 80 94 100 289 62 83 97 110 281 64 96 102 118 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s....................................................... 105 86 61 225 104 106 89 62 217 105 110 91 63 213 105 109 95 62 203 98 111 96 63 196 99 113 98 63 190 97 114 101 64 185 99 119 106 66 184 102 128 109 67 185 107 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. See footnotes at end of table. 109 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958=95—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Historical inausiry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts.................................................... ............ Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r............................ Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 169 75 37 325 143 178 94 36 341 153 175 103 34 333 158 170 111 32 329 155 176 137 32 332 159 172 153 31 321 161 170 171 31 319 164 171 202 32 324 170 170 237 32 335 179 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 191 74 46 118 602 209 78 49 125 588 210 76 48 123 652 206 70 44 118 597 209 68 44 122 594 213 69 44 124 591 218 69 44 129 630 222 70 44 132 658 223 70 44 139 653 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 248 132 100 75 75 269 137 111 78 75 260 135 109 77 75 239 132 105 71 73 249 139 112 74 74 255 137 116 74 73 271 137 120 78 75 288 143 128 85 74 309 155 141 94 79 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 68 354 79 172 125 71 344 88 189 135 68 351 88 196 135 63 344 83 178 128 65 343 89 191 136 67 351 90 195 139 71 365 91 200 144 70 386 99 222 155 71 408 108 237 162 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and genera tors................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 216 90 119 145 62 231 90 128 162 65 234 86 118 157 65 228 79 115 142 60 241 84 118 149 64 246 85 126 152 67 255 87 132 164 73 274 91 142 177 80 297 99 154 191 88 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m a chinery............................................. Genera! industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 237 161 204 151 107 251 164 221 166 111 268 168 227 176 116 254 162 217 175 120 265 171 229 183 124 273 172 234 185 127 289 181 243 192 135 310 193 261 205 148 343 205 285 232 168 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 27 90 147 156 148 28 97 157 176 157 31 100 164 181 155 33 95 163 177 148 36 101 166 183 150 37 102 162 177 156 39 106 162 178 160 45 114 170 192 165 51 125 190 214 180 91. 92. 93. 94. 95, Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 121 105 101 209 179 134 114 105 252 213 137 108 114 289 233 136 104 113 313 243 143 111 118 352 266 149 114 104 357 263 158 120 103 328 265 173 134 116 324 307 196 163 128 365 389 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad eq uipm ent......................................................... 102 610 772 152 41 111 696 722 151 41 112 728 629 146 43 106 636 611 148 35 108 696 639 146 41 104 745 640 147 44 99 757 606 150 50 106 847 625 165 56 116 866 754 183 61 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 8 18 152 44 81 9 23 166 45 85 8 21 170 47 84 8 19 165 48 76 9 23 169 50 73 10 30 169 53 65 10 38 167 54 60 11 43 172 56 60 12 49 189 62 64 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 68 27 67 111 219 69 30 67 116 229 70 29 66 120 228 70 27 64 117 221 73 29 64 123 227 74 31 63 123 224 78 31 66 127 229 85 33 67 141 236 98 36 71 144 242 See footnotes at end of table. 110 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95--Continued (Thousands of jobs) inaustry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 961 314 933 229 170 930 311 1,001 239 184 890 314 1,016 236 196 822 308 1,007 228 202 801 301 1,043 224 202 777 299 1,058 223 207 761 297 1,075 232 218 740 299 1,120 231 234 731 300 1,157 241 253 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation services .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and private................................ 26 65 88 774 433 24 70 90 749 430 23 75 93 748 428 22 76 95 736 426 22 79 96 730 421 21 79 100 726 421 20 83 104 746 423 19 85 108 775 431 19 92 115 816 435 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 213 59 3,242 1,880 7,711 215 61 3,349 1,960 7,936 216 64 3,414 2,016 8,114 218 67 3,408 2,032 8,080 216 68 3,465 2,079 8,150 215 69 3,511 2,100 8,261 214 72 3,604 2,205 8,473 214 74 3,732 2,344 8,760 213 77 3,856 2,465 8,991 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs.......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 621 360 1,128 0 737 644 389 1,137 0 753 677 417 1,160 0 750 697 442 1,180 0 749 719 458 1,194 0 759 745 470 1,217 0 768 770 488 1,242 0 784 796 504 1,253 0 795 829 525 1,270 0 794 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places.............................................. Personal and repair se rv ic e s ......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s.................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 843 1,138 523 750 117 868 1,157 538 814 121 891 1,165 550 855 124 908 1,168 563 896 122 917 1,167 566 967 123 923 1,166 572 1,031 124 957 1,185 591 1,115 125 980 1,204 608 1,201 128 995 1,212 618 1,315 129 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s.......................... Doctors’ and dentists' s e rv ic e s..................................... 727 402 232 354 587 746 422 228 372 605 768 439 224 390 623 784 445 220 399 642 801 456 211 425 655 817 470 210 428 652 840 487 210 447 676 867 500 218 454 702 899 505 220 470 726 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except h o s p ita ls............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 915 284 806 1,133 563 974 303 839 1,331 574 1,038 323 863 1,375 587 1,095 345 890 1,441 597 1,153 363 937 1,473 597 1,224 385 969 1,497 598 1,302 414 1,013 1,514 600 1,364 442 1,048 1,530 614 1,427 469 1,083 1,573 681 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable im p o rts ................................................. 0 78 71 208 0 0 104 71 225 0 0 111 71 251 0 0 117 71 260 0 0 128 69 277 0 0 132 72 301 0 0 136 78 307 0 0 142 77 323 0 0 147 78 316 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction in d u s try .................................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 3,002 0 0 2,549 0 0 3,163 0 0 2,574 0 0 3,087 0 0 2,554 0 0 3,122 0 0 2,656 0 0 3,055 0 0 2,694 0 0 3,082 0 0 2,656 0 0 3,172 0 0 2,683 0 0 3,293 0 0 2,604 0 0 3,338 0 0 2,561 0 See footnotes at end of table. Ill 0 -2. Total ©mpl©ym©nt1 by industry, 1958»95—Continu@d (Thousands of jobs) Historical iriuusiry 1967 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 950 805 156 698 1,160 892 794 175 669 1,132 813 756 172 635 1,119 765 742 157 589 1,047 717 715 148 602 1,012 724 733 165 590 1,057 668 697 131 608 1,116 639 695 132 634 1,151 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in o ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 63 313 30 25 27 53 323 28 28 26 55 329 30 34 25 63 323 30 37 27 72 347 29 34 25 58 386 26 37 21 56 404 28 40 20 54 438 30 44 22 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and ciay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 142 163 103 21 746 135 161 100 13 740 138 157 99 18 792 147 156 101 16 832 148 156 99 18 810 163 152 100 19 863 164 149 101 19 852 182 154 105 21 935 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 144 135 337 277 281 170 129 340 268 283 175 107 344 260 291 130 84 348 251 288 92 74 349 235 288 89 76 351 224 305 88 78 340 212 300 81 80 348 206 300 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 137 291 35 85 99 136 290 37 85 96 137 286 36 87 97 139 281 36 84 96 137 271 36 82 93 137 263 37 80 91 140 255 37 82 90 142 247 35 78 89 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 138 145 86 608 47 138 147 85 617 51 142 151 83 616 58 142 153 83 600 58 139 149 77 572 60 137 143 75 584 63 139 146 78 603 66 137 148 77 578 64 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 77 232 1,235 178 127 81 249 1,237 181 131 82 251 1,244 182 138 74 250 1,213 169 124 71 256 1,190 169 120 73 268 1,217 181 124 75 269 1,257 195 132 76 252 1,197 176 137 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 237 288 38 298 152 232 293 37 310 148 230 310 36 316 153 215 301 33 300 147 216 324 29 312 141 225 347 28 337 154 229 358 27 352 164 231 337 25 334 168 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard................... ..................................................... Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 467 215 364 199 523 471 223 366 205 534 483 231 376 210 550 483 225 382 209 549 467 217 381 197 532 470 220 390 197 544 480 225 398 200 562 487 219 392 204 565 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 291 67 113 103 116 292 67 120 106 125 296 65 124 108 132 297 64 112 106 127 287 58 98 103 122 278 56 96 105 124 284 60 98 109 133 292 64 98 111 137 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 135 112 68 184 101 138 117 71 188 113 143 123 72 182 119 150 127 70 191 116 156 123 67 195 119 160 122 69 196 122 163 127 69 194 131 168 126 67 198 137 See footnotes at end of table. 112 0-2. T@ta! ©mpS©ym©Bit1 by Industry, 195S“@i—C©ntsnued (Thousands of jobs) Historical muusiry 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 56. 57. 58. 59. SO. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le ather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r....................... ...... G la s s ................................................................................... 164 255 30 324 176 165 286 31 328 177 162 320 29 316 188 153 314 27 299 186 155 309 26 277 181 169 344 25 273 194 178 385 24 264 205 174 387 22 250 200 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u c ts .......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 217 65 43 137 636 221 65 44 137 637 228 64 45 140 644 226 59 45 138 627 232 57 43 140 574 245 57 45 143 &8 260 59 48 155 605 250 57 51 160 610 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copoer and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 307 149 144 87 81 300 145 144 91 83 312 160 153 93 87 299 157 144 87 90 286 150 137 78 86 292 158 140 75 85 316 168 154 80 87 329 169 160 84 88 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings......................... ...................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 70 414 111 234 162 72 421 112 247 164 76 440 114 255 165 71 435 105 235 151 67 429 92 230 151 71 449 101 235 163 74 489 111 247 178 71 500 114 228 176 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts.................................... Engines, turbines, and ge nerators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 301 104 155 188 89 303 110 147 192 90 315 112 141 202 95 300 111 133 205 93 286 115 126 196 84 317 116 135 205 89 337 123 155 225 100 340 126 170 241 107 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral eq uipm e nt........................... 358 205 290 242 184 348 199 282 234 202 347 206 291 246 224 324 197 285 234 236 278 176 ■261 •201 219 292 177 267 214 212 326 194 292 235 235 344 205 309 255 252 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ............ ........... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus................................. ........ Household a p pliance s..................................................... 56 129 200 218 175 49 136 205 213 179 52 147 207 223 187 53 149 204 217 184 45 145 187 198 179 49 164 185 209 187 50 183 201 239 198 54 175 204 245 196 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 200 157 130 409 385 201 154 132 419 381 205 156 146 409 394 197 133 164 362 367 189 130 163 307 329 204 140 160 299 355 223 153 166 302 411 217 139 165 311 421 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad equipm ent......................................................... 119 820 835 181 56 124 876 854 189 47 125 912 805 193 51 123 801 670 177 51 125 850 534 181 51 135 877 513 196 49 147 977 540 204 52 145 909 554 209 57 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ......................... .......... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instruments .................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 12 52 194 68 70 14 69 195 74 74 14 89 195 82 75 15 93 181 83 70 15 114 166 84 65 19 141 168 90 57 20 145 177 100 64 19 99 187 111 66 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 105 36 73 139 238 107 36 75 144 234 111 35 78 149 233 113 33 74 140 238 112 28 70 139 225 118 30 80 151 226 125 33 83 161 230 130 33 85 163 230 See footnotes at end of table. 113 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Historical muusuy 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 702 307 1,167 244 303 670 309 1,191 242 334 651 315 1,214 234 357 636 321 1,225 217 356 607 312 1,230 197 351 583 304 1,275 219 354 580 311 1,338 205 368 592 311 1,345 208 373 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and te le visio n .............. Electric utilities, public and p riv a te ................................ 19 101 121 851 445 19 102 125 860 452 18 111 131 919 460 18 114 139 993 481 17 125 144 1,001 495 17 124 144 1,010 508 17 126 146 1,038 521 17 133 150 1,054 533 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 217 79 3,941 2,528 9,143 219 82 4,007 2,646 9,388 220 88 4,163 2,812 9,729 221 95 4,250 2,938 9,872 215 85 4,264 3,055 10,113 216 83 4,356 3,194 10,437 219 85 4,538 3,383 10,725 219 88 4,701 3,597 10,760 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 874 549 1,314 0 796 920 600 1,345 0 816 987 652 1,370 0 855 1,049 636 1,411 0 881 1,074 637 1,429 0 947 1,116 684 1,461 0 1,028 1,178 710 1,492 0 1,074 1,249 708 1,509 0 1,095 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair se rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 999 1,205 622 1,427 131 1,002 1,216 630 1,532 132 1,065 1,232 634 1,691 134 1,079 1,193 621 1,756 135 1,111 1,130 604 1,793 137 1,206 1,139 590 1,917 137 1,248 1,146 581 2,081 143 1,306 1,165 572 2,202 137 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 927 508 225 468 744 968 525 232 483 776 1,046 569 248 497 806 1,101 576 245 515 815 1,144 577 236 544 897 1,201 589 247 566 942 1,250 611 260 599 991 1,334 622 263 619 1,045 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except h o s p ita ls ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 1,561 535 1,124 1,646 714 1,658 604 1,185 1,717 724 1,776 672 1,229 1,764 732 1,871 733 1,240 1,784 736 1,939 813 1,260 1,825 726 1,983 871 1,305 1,772 698 2,053 973 1,330 1,787 693 2,162 1,048 1,389 1,829 705 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terprises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 151 81 314 0 0 150 88 332 0 0 152 87 351 0 0 166 92 366 0 0 161 93 394 0 0 161 100 388 0 0 163 100 418 0 0 163 112 451 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction industry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 3,268 0 0 2,484 0 0 3,399 0 0 2,437 0 0 3,594 0 0 2,322 0 0 3,555 0 0 2,280 0 0 3,706 0 0 2,238 0 0 3,861 0 0 2,200 0 0 4,160 0 0 2,097 0 0 4,096 0 0 1,916 0 See footnotes at end of table. 114 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Thousands of jobs) industry 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 591 634 76 638 1,191 552 605 81 638 1,135 521 584 77 617 1,151 510 584 62 619 1,219 463 544 60 602 1,192 436 533 62 612 1,217 434 530 62 609 1,210 429 524 61 603 1,198 6. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r.............. 51 393 30 39 26 69 423 31 37 27 82 411 25 34 33 90 449 29 30 36 83 489 31 33 38 88 499 27 30 43 83 500 26 36 43 84 585 16 25 34 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 215 169 96 23 1,010 226 180 96 23 1,006 227 185 96 23 1,079 211 200 99 24 1,188 261 212 104 25 1,224 247 246 103 27 1,538 225 285 95 27 1,509 242 311 90 24 1,424 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 75 79 340 201 289 69 70 352 200 303 69 66 359 192 301 70 75 361 190 309 73 81 363 189 316 74 88 363 180 312 81 96 361 174 297 79 105 352 171 293 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 139 239 37 73 89 139 244 39 74 82 146 241 34 78 85 147 242 33 78 87 147 238 31 80 86 148 233 30 76 84 142 229 31 75 87 135 227 29 73 87 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 133 148 75 524 55 140 148 77 565 58 144 158 71 548 61 149 157 71 536 64 153 160 70 531 61 150 160 69 510 55 147 160 70 491 53 145 152 68 442 49 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 67 226 1,097 162 117 70 231 1,156 183 139 71 234 1,148 185 140 71 239 1,150 197 134 71 227 1,125 198 150 67 221 1,101 186 151 66 221 1,080 183 138 60 205 1,009 171 126 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 202 294 22 284 143 221 327 21 306 146 228 355 21 315 168 233 392 20 332 175 237 394 19 329 176 215 363 17 301 177 203 351 17 298 184 179 317 15 270 180 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 448 194 389 205 544 470 206 395 208 549 484 210 411 217 571 486 214 420 224 607 494 214 432 230 640 488 205 441 238 656 487 201 443 246 664 475 189 445 248 668 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 292 65 89 98 121 304 68 90 99 120 321 68 95 98 117 326 67 96 99 115 328 70 99 100 112 330 72 100 95 110 336 70 100 93 103 329 65 95 89 97 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 167 122 62 194 124 171 128 65 198 104 181 131 66 202 130 187 137 69 208 127 193 140 69 210 127 196 143 65 198 115 199 148 63 214 108 199 147 62 202 105 See footnotes at end of table. 115 ' 0=2. T©&a! employment1 by industry, 1958=95—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Historical muusiry 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 149 339 22 232 182 154 386 23 242 194 161 427 23 238 201 165 467 22 242 206 167 494 20 232 202 152 467 19 215 191 151 484 20 220 188 140 460 19 206 173 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 225 48 46 139 548 225 48 48 141 549 234 50 49 148 554 245 51 50 160 560 255 52 52 165 571 239 46 49 151 512 227 42 45 150 507 209 34 40 132 394 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 302 141 132 74 79 295 145 143 80 78 302 147 150 84 78 313 151 162 90 79 324 161 170 93 80 280 150 162 91 75 272 149 159 89 71 221 135 140 80 64 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal p roducts............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 61 463 93 192 155 63 466 95 220 168 69 483 101 239 177 74 511 110 249 184 76 535 117 245 185 70 522 110 212 166 68 515 105 206 161 61 461 92 187 143 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and ge nera tors................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 307 120 162 251 91 326 121 163 248 88 342 125 168 257 94 362 137 166 275 98 376 145 184 276 106 359 135 170 283 108 361 133 156 302 102 331 113 139 254 87 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery.................................................. Special industry m a chinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 315 184 290 248 238 315 183 286 246 239 335 190 295 256 262 353 197 313 281 297 379 205 329 313 339 381 207 324 322 376 371 198 323 315 407 319 176 288 292 428 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission e q uipm e nt.................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 49 144 174 212 161 48 160 180 222 170 49 171 190 233 180 53 184 206 245 185 59 188 221 251 178 58 174 224 240 163 54 175 227 239 161 47 159 215 206 142 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu s ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 181 113 148 310 338 196 121 137 308 366 205 125 147 315 405 218 123 155 337 457 225 116 165 357 525 209 109 164 378 554 202 107 157 399 557 187 93 148 424 561 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad equipm e nt......................................................... 131 793 528 198 57 144 882 503 219 50 154 949 500 230 56 172 1,006 546 230 64 176 991 632 230 74 159 791 676 223 71 157 791 672 236 54 153 707 629 223 37 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum en ts.................................... Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt............................... 15 86 171 109 60 17 102 175 119 66 18 108 ‘190 128 72 21 119 200 136 75 20 103 215 144 81 18 74 221 156 79 17 73 235 160 80 14 74 226 158 77 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 121 30 82 139 216 125 31 91 145 217 130 30 93 145 235 132 30 98 146 253 134 28 92 145 245 135 23 82 139 226 137 21 80 138 227 140 18 76 130 218 See footnotes at end of table. 116 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Historical industry 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation........................................ ..................... 550 302 1,283 196 368 541 301 1,321 200 378 550 291 1,405 200 390 544 291 1,503 212 412 559 303 1,555 222 443 534 312 1,497 216 461 498 312 1,479 223 463 433 314 1,454 206 450 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 17 139 157 1,022 526 18 143 162 1,010 531 19 156 170 1,018 550 20 176 181 1,061 581 20 198 191 1,121 608 21 209 203 1,159 640 22 218 211 1,186 665 22 224 221 1,199 684 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ...................... 217 84 4,661 3,689 10,779 213 87 4,849 3,941 10,994 212 88 4,995 4,257 11,362 217 93 5,240 4,576 11,821 220 94 5,507 4,864 11,981 221 105 5,597 4,948 11,948 227 107 5,674 5,077 11,933 230 106 5,585 5,159 11,792 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 1,275 711 1,544 0 1,054 1,310 738 1,555 0 1,073 1,357 785 1,612 0 1,145 1,423 840 1,699 0 1,267 1,498 901 1,750 0 1,374 1,572 952 1,794 0 1,384 1,629 1,003 1,845 0 1,345 1,655 1,038 1,870 0 1,336 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair se rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 1,319 1,161 550 2,254 137 1,363 1,158 578 2,418 138 1,455 1,183 597 2,609 145 1,476 1,192 621 2,892 155 1,549 1,239 632 3,178 165 1,571 1,244 628 3,404 172 1,648 1,293 622 3,640 183 1,693 1,305 624 3,743 186 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ se rv ic e s ..................................... 1,421 643 264 653 1,120 1,414 690 273 693 1,164 1,550 733 287 721 1,213 1,691 787 293 764 1,277 1,814 839 311 769 1,351 1,930 845 291 832 1,408 2,056 876 312 854 1,454 2,147 910 310 870 1,503 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private).................................... . Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 2,277 1,102 1,427 1,864 697 2,366 1,182 1,477 1,922 671 2,468 1,270 1,566 1,944 654 2,541 1,359 1,662 1,999 649 2,614 1,431 1,721 2,073 661 2,754 1,517 1,772 2,142 661 2,908 1,589 1,828 2,103 661 3,016 1,664 1,882 2,095 662 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terprises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable im p o rts ................................................. 0 151 112 502 0 0 149 122 494 0 0 147 123 496 0 0 149 127 514 0 0 155 130 541 0 0 153 172 515 0 0 150 175 507 0 0 150 173 496 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-wor!d indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 3,494 0 0 1,876 0 0 3,635 0 0 1,881 0 0 3,935 0 0 1,936 0 0 4,382 0 0 1,898 0 0 4,679 0 0 1,723 0 0 4,327 0 0 1,598 0 0 4,280 0 0 1,606 0 0 4,067 0 0 1,635 0 See footnotes at end of table. 117 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Projected Industry 1995 alternatives 1990 alternatives Low Moderate High Low Moderate High Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k ............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 378 474 55 585 1,138 384 473 54 589 1,151 387 475 55 593 1,162 344 439 50 571 1,096 360 445 50 577 1,118 367 450 51 585 1,141 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 73 640 25 27 34 79 623 25 27 34 89 613 22 26 33 96 704 25 33 35 92 711 26 35 34 99 716 23 36 34 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except drillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 299 275 85 31 1,778 286 291 87 31 1,700 275 282 92 31 1,685 310 332 72 35 1,861 317 338 77 35 1,882 322 307 87 35 1,912 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 90 130 359 137 331 87 130 357 144 335 88 127 359 156 341 88 149 368 119 336 85 140 372 127 341 90 143 380 131 353 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 143 203 30 77 83 145 210 30 78 86 145 209 31 80 85 140 164 27 69 76 144 174 28 71 80 147 177 30 76 83 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco manufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 164 171 61 448 52 168 171 62 461 56 169 168 64 457 63 159 177 50 471 57 167 182 52 474 58 171 182 58 482 62 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill p roducts............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ....................................... ............ Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Lo gging.............................................................................. 69 207 1,056 220 130 72 218 1,074 223 131 75 218 1,061 228 133 65 224 1,117 234 124 67 236 1,125 238 128 74 240 1,093 243 130 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 192 400 12 334 193 196 406 12 346 199 210 416 13 368 205 206 414 10 346 200 209 419 11 357 206 215 427 12 392 208 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 513 190 492 296 733 516 201 494 298 758 524 209 491 304 751 526 179 517 330 745 533 192 535 338 789 551 208 543 344 803 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 362 81 107 110 110 358 84 111 114 116 353 84 121 119 124 371 82 116 113 121 379 88 120 116 124 381 93 121 124 134 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................ Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 253 166 68 185 100 254 168 71 183 102 252 166 72 182 104 276 167 65 179 101 281 176 70 182 104 284 178 73 183 108 See footnotes at end of table. 118 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Thousands of jobs) Projected 1995 alternatives 1990 alternatives Industry Low Moderate High Low Moderate High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 147 565 15 166 198 151 636 16 170 201 157 653 16 172 205 146 654 11 147 211 150 716 12 154 212 159 741 14 144 214 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 222 35 44 156 420 240 37 45 164 435 250 39 46 173 430 215 29 46 175 433 240 30 49 182 447 257 33 50 191 444 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p roducts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 247 157 167 83 67 255 160 174 84 69 258 164 175 86 70 264 166 168 83 61 270 170 178 85 62 275 178 183 90 66 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 72 537 112 234 177 73 572 115 249 184 80 598 117 253 188 77 563 118 236 198 78 619 121 252 200 88 664 122 259 204 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts.................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 388 151 164 315 110 414 152 170 321 113 413 152 173 325 120 399 165 167 343 123 430 167 172 357 125 436 170 178 368 136 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 371 206 336 323 586 388 207 342 331 586 393 211 343 341 593 373 210 350 339 665 400 213 356 345 694 415 221 362 362 706 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household a p pliance s..................................................... 55 190 235 255 175 60 199 245 261 183 64 211 246 275 193 67 208 246 284 185 69 214 256 288 188 73 232 263 313 202 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 229 95 177 452 725 239 106 185 433 745 246 110 199 440 793 251 106 208 532 862 253 113 209 460 850 253 116 230 463 855 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad equipm e nt......................................................... 162 794 716 260 45 170 834 680 254 47 180 828 664 248 47 192 847 761 277 47 194 860 709 270 50 209 871 701 263 52 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt............................... 17 87 294 205 83 18 96 292 203 86 19 108 292 210 89 19 104 345 270 88 20 109 349 272 92 21 121 359 274 98 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 167 22 75 134 210 169 22 82 140 214 173 23 88 144 224 175 23 96 143 216 177 21 98 146 218 184 22 109 150 238 See footnotes at end of table. 119 D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958=®5“=C©ntonu©d (Thousands of jobs) Projected 1995 alternatives 1990 alternatives Industry Low Moderate High Low Moderate High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 353 345 1,720 197 522 373 341 1,701 210 532 429 345 1,702 214 528 327 350 1,750 204 561 351 361 1,774 214 568 377 385 1,793 216 573 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 22 261 301 1,384 686 24 269 308 1,379 712 25 250 292 1,434 714 24 295 355 1,543 730 24 302 357 1,593 740 27 302 359 1,603 746 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s ............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 220 140 6,162 5,908 13,815 218 133 6,298 5,951 14,106 219 135 6,387 5,959 14,303 205 144 6,622 6,669 14,473 207 147 6,734 6,742 15,070 211 154 6,745 6,772 15,342 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 1,954 1,313 2,187 0 1,567 1,954 1,350 2,163 0 1,640 1,968 1,364 2,168 0 1,168 2,098 1,507 2,237 0 1,764 2,120 1,518 2,272 0 1,774 2,146 1,549 2,307 0 1,787 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s .................................. Advertising........................................................................ 1,914 1,466 652 4,951 213 1,915 1,519 660 5,172 218 1,891 1,621 685 5,331 221 2,004 1,547 707 6,148 228 2,010 1,592 733 6,183 234 2,034 1,734 760 6,229 238 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s ............................ Automobile repair ............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s.......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 2,573 965 325 1,035 1,876 2,640 1,029 315 1,059 1,897 2,620 1,101 316 1,082 2,036 2,916 1,113 323 1,173 1,971 3,004 1,141 326 1,193 2,005 3,099 1,186 337 1,248 2,095 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 3,895 2,089 2,447 2,387 629 3,963 2,208 2,157 2,406 597 3,889 2,279 2,001 2,449 595 4,471 2,649 2,311 2,455 537 4,477 2,688 2,396 2,505 581 4,665 2,744 2,411 2,606 594 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 182 207 610 0 0 178 209 623 0 0 182 215 649 0 0 182 228 700 0 0 189 233 723 0 0 198 251 781 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 5,242 0 0 1,443 0 0 5,263 0 0 1,400 0 0 5,366 0 0 1,392 0 0 5,936 0 0 1,295 0 0 6,043 0 0 1,346 0 0 6,091 0 0 1,368 0 1 Total employment includes wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family workers. 120 (Millions of hours) Historical inausiry 1958 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat anirpals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 3,829 2,199 1,099 2,394 3,385 3,649 2,303 1,329 2,259 3,379 3,461 2,205 1,231 2,216 3,350 3,268 2,148 1,127 1,929 3,324 3,110 2,115 1,005 1,874 3,330 2,872 2,072 952 1,840 3,219 2,674 2,002 841 1,730 3,112 2,678 2,016 762 1,720 2,915 2,404 1,925 472 1,595 2,745 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m inin g....................................... 9. Copper ore mining ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 113 527 69 57 69 117 550 63 52 68 116 566 80 65 68 120 572 65 66 66 118 580 63 63 60 117 569 58 62 59 118 588 60 60 58 118 597 66 68 56 122 599 66 72 60 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 384 446 226 40 1,186 376 435 241 43 1,273 356 414 242 45 1,299 313 404 238 42 1,282 300 396 235 43 1,351 307 389 234 43 1,390 306 381 237 41 1,413 301 374 245 44 1,446 295 365 244 49 1,500 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 102 123 684 703 487 105 199 692 699 498 109 231 698 695 497 121 276 694 684 503 148 298 682 665 521 154 310 689 645 513 133 295 692 633 519 126 281 694 626 538 195 290 705 608 572 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery p ro d u c ts ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 306 655 69 164 219 311 652 84 164 221 306 652 80 162 216 309 643 81 162 208 307 638 78 159 203 304 629 30 162 201 301 633 82 161 197 301 626 79 161 204 304 612 78 171 203 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yam, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 224 303 192 1,241 75 233 313 192 1,318 83 239 313 187 1,262 81 239 309 183 1,221 78 243 312 181 1,249 83 249 310 178 1,225 84 260 307 182 1,248 86 266 311 172 1,297 94 282 311 170 1,357 98 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit g o o d s ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Lo gging.............................................................................. 141 408 1,944 264 272 155 445 2,086 289 293 146 427 2,048 293 289 137 429 2,007 295 291 141 443 2,138 305 290 143 427 2,157 315 282 145 433 2,172 324 299 158 466 2,285 340 298 171 477 2,365 353 292 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 575 509 87 497 248 631 561 91 547 269 587 532 86 525 278 525 527 79 505 266 524 555 76 542 275 527 574 75 553 275 528 598 72 583 283 525 628 73 617 307 518 652 78 652 334 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 871 352 641 310 896 920 376 650 313 931 933 377 666 324 952 934 384 664 330 955 945 404 667 327 974 953 408 669 335 969 959 419 684 346 992 982 435 700 360 1,021 1,026 459 713 380 1,071 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 544 115 167 163 156 551 118 174 174 165 566 117 175 179 170 561 120 174 178 171 561 124 179 190 186 562 132 176 199 198 571 131 172 203 212 572 135 177 212 233 601 140 205 224 247 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 219 177 127 473 210 221 185 131 457 223 228 190 132 449 214 228 198 129 429 201 234 202 131 417 209 237 205 132 403 203 237 211 135 394 212 249 221 140 394 227 267 231 142 398 239 121 D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95=-Continued (Millions of hours) Historical muusiry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le ather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 346 157 75 622 291 378 201 74 673 320 363 217 69 642 328 356 237 66 641 321 372 292 66 651 330 361 328 65 626 334 358 367 66 629 346 364 434 67 644 361 364 508 67 673 383 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 414 153 88 248 1,188 461 164 98 271 1,217 452 160 96 261 1,300 446 148 89 252 1,210 457 144 92 258 1,212 473 147 91 264 1,232 483 148 92 279 1,341 495 150 93 285 1,400 497 149 93 299 1,383 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts...................... Metal containers............................................................... 491 273 209 157 160 560 295 235 170 163 528 284 228 163 160 488 281 224 153 157 524 299 239 160 160 550 297 250 161 159 594 300 257 166 164 643 318 277 184 164 683 348 309 208 175 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 141 741 163 359 256 148 721 192 409 284 138 740 186 422 281 130 725 176 376 264 134 726 194 411 286 139 746 196 424 293 148 780 201 440 307 146 830 222 493 332 148 886 246 525 346 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 449 186 250 295 128 490 188 268 344 137 490 178 248 325 137 480 164 241 297 126 514 175 251 314 137 524 179 264 321 145 544 183 283 350 159 590 195 304 384 175 643 216 332 415 195 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery........... „ ..................................... Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral eq uipm e nt........................... 495 333 418 328 221 551 351 469 372 233 587 360 472 385 245 546 345 453 374 258 590 369 485 407 261 606 370 495 411 271 656 394 523 422 290 713 424 568 452 326 801 456 629 522 371 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household ap pliance s..................................................... 58 186 304 322 303 61 205 330 369 328 67 207 342 375 320 72 198 340 369 309 77 212 348 384 315 79 214 341 372 328 84 224 342 379 336 99 242 361 412 352 113 267 408 463 384 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and wiring .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 248 215 210 437 364 ■282 235 223 528 443 282 220 241 598 480 279 213 238 652 506 298 231 250 738 553 311 234 217 743 541 329 246 219 683 549 365 276 246 679 642 413 337 272 771 813 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad equipm ent......................................................... 212 1,263 1,615 313 83 237 1,476 1,513 313 83 236 1,542 1,322 303 88 220 1,323 1,292 308 70 234 1,521 1,360 308 85 222 1,632 1,355 315 92 211 1,663 1,282 319 106 229 1,903 1,335 350 117 250 1,895 1,642 396 129 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum en ts.................................... Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t............................... 15 37 239 90 170 17 50 262 95 179 16 45 265 99 175 16 42 260 100 163 17 48 272 105 156 19 66 273 110 140 20 81 275 113 128 22 91 286 117 133 22 105 315 130 140 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 142 55 139 224 457 146 62 140 240 482 149 60 131 244 485 151 57 128 240 472 155 61 128 251 486 157 64 125 250 480 166 64 132 259 487 185 70 134 291 505 213 77 145 298 516 122 D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of hours) Historical mausiry 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 2,070 707 2,095 495 393 2,002 706 2,269 515 425 1,925 711 2,271 511 454 1,791 707 2,256 431 468 1,741 685 2,324 475 457 1,613 672 2,357 490 459 1,709 661 2,415 508 449 1,666 657 2,547 509 475 1,660 648 2,629 421 516 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation services .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and private................................ 55 141 175 1,556 926 51 151 179 1,537 918 48 160 187 1,548 919 46 163 188 1,515 910 45 162 192 1,522 903 44 161 202 1,516 903 43 167 210 1,566 914 42 173 217 1,642 930 40 184 228 1,725 939 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s ............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 447 133 6,906 4,102 15,917 456 138 7,187 4,225 16,394 457 147 7,319 4,350 16,733 461 153 7,304 4,337 16,483 458 157 7,449 4,394 16,514 458 155 7,525 4,363 16,610 456 162 7,739 4,210 17,113 459 170 8,048 4,429 17,492 457 174 8,299 4,510 17,665 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 1,204 716 2,307 0 1,508 1,250 771 2,311 0 1,534 1,307 825 2,362 0 1,543 1,346 873 2,403 0 1,534 1,394 905 2,427 0 1,553 1,446 927 2,455 0 1,557 1,499 963 2,442 0 1,587 1,542 1,001 2,477 0 1,608 1,607 1,036 2,506 0 1,614 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s .................................. Advertising........................................................................ 1,899 2,499 1,202 1,297 228 1,945 2,523 1,224 1,413 236 1,980 2,313 1,123 1,497 243 1,975 2,312 1,140 1,583 239 1,974 2,298 1,131 1,708 240 1,980 2,518 1,282 1,775 240 2,028 2,558 1,319 1,837 244 2,044 2,573 1,340 2,004 256 2,028 2,560 1,340 2,216 249 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 1,672 850 351 654 1,291 1,697 884 345 681 1,314 1,762 925 339 715 1,368 1,784 931 334 728 1,399 1,805 990 322 775 1,409 1,811 959 317 775 1,380 1,865 1,080 319 809 1,430 1,922 1,102 340 816 1,458 1,973 1,102 344 839 1,476 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 1,803 597 1,486 1,958 1,198 1,909 629 1,539 2,299 1,224 2,037 676 1,587 2,378 1,242 2,139 711 1,630 2,493 1,270 2,239 745 1,706 2,549 1,270 2,359 774 1,757 2,588 1,275 2,510 831 1,838 2,627 1,276 2,578 870 1,890 2,655 1,319 2,646 907 1,970 2,707 1,374 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger transit ............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 166 153 449 0 0 222 154 487 0 0 235 152 539 0 0 248 153 561 0 0 272 147 592 0 0 281 154 643 0 0 289 165 650 0 0 305 166 695 0 0 297 166 670 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................... ................ Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 6,436 0 0 3,579 0 0 6,782 0 0 3,534 0 0 6,581 0 0 3,533 0 0 6,418 0 0 3,411 0 0 6,556 0 0 3,390 0 0 6,590 0 0 3,342 0 0 6,772 0 0 3,293 0 0 7,058 0 0 3,196 0 0 7,149 0 0 3,103 0 123 0-3. Total hours paid by industry, 195B“95=-C@ntinu@d (Millions of hours) Historical mausiry 1967 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and livestock............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 2,222 1,883 365 1,632 2,713 2,100 1,869 412 1,575 2,665 1,910 1,776 404 1,492 2,628 1,793 1,739 368 1,380 2,454 1,685 1,680 348 1,414 2,378 1,679 1,699 383 1,368 2,451 1,544 1,611 303 1,405 2,579 1,461 1,589 302 1,450 2,632 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery seiv ic e s............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r.............. 120 589 65 56 60 100 612 61 67 55 105 617 64 81 55 120 608 66 86 61 137 648 62 78 56 111 738 56 81 47 107 773 60 88 45 102 808 66 93 49 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g .................................................................... . Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 300 358 238 48 1,483 281 354 231 43 1,436 287 351 230 42 1,560 311 344 232 36 1,613 307 344 228 36 1,567 346 336 233 43 1,633 341 328 241 45 1,626 357 344 247 49 1,779 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 307 285 721 591 563 362 271 726 570 571 363 226 735 553 593 270 177 740 531 581 195 156 737 494 577 188 159 739 474 618 185 163 710 450 608 170 166 730 438 605 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 310 607 75 177 208 309 606 76 175 200 311 595 75 177 200 313 577 77 171 199 303 556 74 168 194 304 542 79 165 188 314 529 78 168 187 313 510 76 161 186 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco manufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .............................................. ............ 286 309 174 1,311 102 284 314 167 1,331 112 291 323 162 1,323 129 290 327 164 1,263 127 285 319 153 1,220 134 281 294 148 1,270 141 285 303 156 1,299 144 279 307 154 1,197 137 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill p roducts............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Logging.............................................................................. 166 466 2,325 357 279 176 508 2,331 363 296 179 503 2,336 366 310 156 494 2,248 333 281 153 513 2,215 337 273 160 545 2,231 370 279 161 542 2,353 398 301 161 500 2,208 350 305 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p roducts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 495 622 80 619 333 489 633 76 651 320 480 664 76 660 327 442 633 66 610 306 451 681 58 644 296 475 744 57 701 325 478 756 55 729 348 472 704 50 674 353 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 1,031 463 719 401 1,089 1,042 479 721 413 1,110 1,071 496 741 421 1,145 1,054 471 749 418 1,124 1,020 458 743 399 1,080 1,042 469 764 415 1,090 1,064 481 780 423 1,129 1,070 457 764 430 1,134 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and orqanic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical p roducts................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 618 145 238 223 243 624 144 253 230 265 633 141 261 234 278 635 138 236 227 267 609 123 206 222 259 582 121 203 229 259 596 129 208 237 277 613 137 206 240 282 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products....... ....................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s .................................................. . 281 235 142 397 226 288 244 149 405 254 298 258 150 332 266 312 265 145 412 247 323 258 141 422 253 335 256 144 424 267 345 266 146 417 291 352 264 140 424 300 124 D=3„ Total hours paid by tndusSry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of hours) Historical inausiry 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s .................................................................................. 346 537 63 643 372 346 603 64 653 377 339 670 60 614 400 317 651 55 584 392 321 642 54 545 382 355 723 52 544 413 374 807 50 522 435 361 801 45 482 419 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u c ts .......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products........................ 483 137 90 293 1,328 492 137 92 292 1,347 509 134 93 302 1,372 495 124 91 294 1,302 515 121 89 297 1,179 546 121 94 307 1,195 577 125 101 335 1,299 546 120 104 343 1,302 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 658 323 310 191 180 644 316 314 201 186 674 347 329 210 194 625 335 304 189 200 599 322 291 167 190 633 343 300 164 188 699 368 333 180 195 718 361 342 180 195 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products...... ........................................... Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware............................ 146 887 247 504 343 151 895 247 542 349 160 936 251 554 348 147 914 223 506 316 140 899 194 483 317 148 941 223 510 344 155 1,034 249 539 375 145 1,047 254 481 365 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm m achinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 640 223 326 399 191 645 234 305 411 193 672 238 295 438 205 627 234 275 436 194 597 241 264 413 174 674 247 291 440 189 718 265 341 493 214 718 271 370 524 229 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral eq uipm ent........................... 815 444 625 550 393 775 430 604 529 426 780 447 627 557 475 703 417 598 517 495 588 369 542 438 463 646 379 571 474 451 739 421 633 527 492 768 439 662 556 527 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household a p pliance s..................................................... 120 272 425 460 365 103 283 434 448 377 110 311 439 475 393 112 308 429 453 379 94 299 390 412 367 102 348 389 444 388 109 386 425 509 409 115 364 431 515 396 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 414 319 273 858 787 417 315 275 879 784 424 316 313 855 809 403 270 348 754 747 388 265 338 642 675 426 286 331 624 737 464 308 347 631 850 443 278 340 650 860 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. Aircraft ............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re pair.................................. 100. Railroad equipm e nt......................................................... 250 1,731 1,800 383 116 266 1,928 1,824 401 96 264 1,957 1,714 410 108 256 1,674 1,409 367 105 263 1,806 1,119 374 106 290 1,927 1,064 412 102 324 2,168 1,129 432 105 310 1,911 1,158 437 121 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum ents.................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipment ............................... 23 111 313 141 148 27 146 320 154 158 2S 186 327 171 160 27 192 305 171 148 29 232 280 174 136 42 290 349 187 119 43 293 373 206 136 42 195 390 228 139 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 225 76 150 284 502 228 73 153 292 497 237 71 162 299 486 239 69 148 282 498 236 58 135 282 476 252 61 162 307 483 266 69 166 325 486 275 68 167 329 484 125 D-3. Toftal hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of hours) Historical m uubiry 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 111. 11 2. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 1,570 656 2,592 433 604 1,523 651 2,671 423 667 1,494 658 2,705 403 706 1,459 683 2,704 383 702 1,364 659 2,743 345 700 1,327 587 2,852 380 706 1,339 589 2,984 359 734 1,353 592 2,923 368 763 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation........................ ............................ Transportation s e rv ic e s.................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 41 200 238 1,747 957 40 201 245 1,782 971 39 221 260 1,929 996 38 227 275 2,039 1,036 37 250 284 1,987 1,065 36 248 286 2,075 1,099 36 247 289 2,151 1,137 37 261 299 2,183 1,152 121. 122. 123. 12^. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 464 180 8,388 4,528 17,631 467 186 8,479 4,664 17,876 467 203 8,834 4,809 18,235 472 220 8,941 4,904 18,307 455 189 8,872 5,033 18,791 461 184 9,040 5,167 19,277 466 188 9,384 5,382 19,636 466 194 9,617 5,635 19,452 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 1,687 1,081 2,582 0 1,591 1,777 1,190 2,615 0 1,641 1,914 1,289 2,672 0 1,710 2,017 1,241 2,750 0 1,742 2,065 1,249 2,781 0 1,894 2,122 1,345 2,857 0 2,038 2,241 1,394 2,910 0 2,122 2,380 1,377 2,941 0 2,160 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging p lace s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 2,031 2,503 1,319 2,398 251 1,992 2,509 1,328 2,493 248 2,097 2,515 1,304 2,800 247 2,071 2,404 1,255 2,910 246 2,094 2,293 1,235 2,987 252 2,215 2.185 1,113 3,461 262 2,247 2,231 1,095 3,687 279 2,304 2,197 1,049 3,884 261 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s ..................................... 2,006 1,087 348 823 1,485 2,118 1,131 360 843 1,535 2,281 1,189 375 864 1,554 2,372 1,193 386 891 1,541 2,458 1,201 364 922 1,696 2,602 1,233 381 1,004 1,676 2,697 1,279 408 1,047 1,732 2,874 1,291 409 1,072 1,826 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 2,852 1,011 2,036 2,801 1,433 2,985 1,128 2,137 2,894 1,461 3,152 1,227 2,217 3,121 1,484 3,332 1,319 2,239 3,080 1,527 3,459 1,465 2,288 3,096 1,499 3,578 1,507 2,352 2,921 1,452 3,702 1,660 2,396 2,965 1,453 3,897 1,764 2,461 3,035 1,478 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orp ora tion...................................... Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 303 172 666 0 0 303 184 696 0 0 308 181 732 0 0 343 190 754 0 0 333 194 830 0 0 335 210 815 0 0 341 208 871 0 0 339 234 940 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 7,014 0 0 3,294 0 0 7,265 0 0 3,168 0 0 7,734 0 0 3,019 0 0 7,493 0 0 2,881 0 0 7,806 0 0 2,793 0 0 7,744 0 0 2,734 0 0 8,401 0 0 2,682 0 0 8,274 0 0 2,321 0 O ther Federal enterprises .................................................. 126 D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of hours) Historical industry 1975 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1.976 1977 1978 1979 Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals arid live s to c k............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts.............................................. 1,360 1,459 175 1,468 2,740 1,261 1,382 185 1,457 2,592 1,201 1,347 178 1,423 2,654 1,179 1,351 143 1,431 2,819 1,098 1,290 142 1,427 2,826 8. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r.............. 94 723 64 80 54 129 770 66 76 60 153 750 55 67 65 169 822 64 63 77 1980 1981 1982 1,007 1,231 143 1,413 2,810 1,004 1,226 143 1,409 2,800 975 1,191 139 1,370 2,722 166 893 67 73 80 192 1,112 55 63 91 189 1,133 54 78 89 180 1,289 32 50 68 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g .......................... Maintenance and repair construction............................ 443 370 217 51 1,906 466 403 221 53 1,925 489 425 227 55 2,048 439 455 232 56 2,267 553 480 245 58 2,355 515 548 234 61 2,959 471 634 221 60 2,895 501 684 199 53 2,718 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance.... ....................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s ............................................... 157 164 703 425 587 145 146 737 426 615 146 137 742 411 603 148 155 744 404 610 153 169 752 401 624 157 183 741 380 618 170 200 739 367 585 165 219 714 357 579 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 306 492 78 150 184 307 502 84 152 171 322 494 71 158 179 324 496 68 157 183 324 485 63 161 182 321 473 63 154 179 308 460 67 152 181 292 456 61 148 184 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s............................................... Other food products............................. ............................ Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 271 304 151 1,075 116 286 309 151 1,192 122 294 325 141 1,154 132 305 330 141 1,141 139 313 340 139 1,130 129 309 337 137 1,073 115 300 337 142 1,025 109 297 317 134 870 97 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill p roducts............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Lo gging.............................................................................. 140 448 2,020 327 246 149 461 2,168 372 303 151 473 2,167 373 303 152 480 2,139 397 295 152 452 2,081 398 330 142 443 2,044 368 312 142 430 2,020 372 300 122 393 1,840 338 252 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 409 608 43 559 295 467 684 42 615 303 484 746 42 635 358 492 821 40 674 372 498 813 38 662 362 435 735 35 595 360 413 720 35 591 367 358 634 30 518 365 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products ....................................................................... Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 967 406 753 430 1,080 1,032 439 768 442 1,097 1,048 451 801 454 1,154 1,071 463 819 455 1,245 1,087 455 845 462 1,312 1,064 434 854 477 1,324 1,068 428 853 493 1,343 1,028 396 856 497 1,345 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 607 140 185 209 249 635 147 191 216 248 672 147 202 213 245 693 145 203 215 245 703 152 209 215 239 700 157 210 203 231 712 152 211 201 218 688 139 198 187 201 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ........................................... ...................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 348 253 129 409 262 356 268 137 424 222 378 274 138 436 290 392 287 144 454 277 405 293 144 461 273 409 297 135 420 238 416 308 131 464 230 416 307 126 441 219 127 D-3. Tota! hours paid by industry, 1§§8-95—-Continued (Millions of hours) Historical m uubiry 1975 1976 1977 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s ................................................................................... 303 699 46 451 380 325 807 48 472 410 333 895 47 464 423 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related p ro d u cts.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 479 101 94 288 1,127 487 103 98 300 1,147 506 106 101 315 1,162 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper products............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 631 296 274 157 173 627 311 304 172 173 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 124 965 192 397 319 76. 77, 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................. Farm machinery....................... ......................................... Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 349 1,033 40 445 435 314 969 40 411 409 314 1,007 42 419 404 286 943 38 385 368 537 109 103 342 1,199 560 111 107 345 1,213 511 95 100 309 1,049 482 86 437 71 94 303 1,057 264 786 649 320 319 183 174 678 326 350 196 177 684 348 364 201 181 581 318 342 193 168 560 319 338 190 158 438 278 290 167 141 131 976 204 473 354 142 1,010 220 510 375 152 1,066 241 537 388 156 1,122 256 517 384 144 1,089 231 443 340 138 1,075 221 433 334 123 943 186 385 289 638 249 345 538 192 684 252 345 519 184 725 267 353 546 199 766 294 352 593 207 794 306 397 588 226 750 279 354 596 224 743 277 325 649 207 669 232 284 528 177 Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm e nt........................... 670 386 607 534 497 679 387 603 544 504 741 402 622 559 549 788 418 662 621 624 844 436 700 679 715 827 439 682 680 792 792 418 676 676 854 659 363 589 596 896 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household a p pliance s..................................................... 100 294 358 441 328 102 335 372 462 352 101 354 396 487 375 112 390 432 514 384 124 393 465 528 369 120 360 467 500 331 114 365 470 501 326 98 326 440 416 285 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication eq uipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 369 229 303 643 692 407 249 288 638 754 425 259 313 657 837 454 250 321 709 950 469 233 351 748 1,089 446 221 343 788 1,141 434 217 331 830 1,152 382 188 305 883 1,152 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad e q uipm e nt......................................................... 276 1,655 1,112 412 119 307 1,933 1,054 454 102 333 2,121 1,047 474 116 366 2,220 1,165 471 132 371 2,103 1,353 474 158 315 1,639 1,438 470 145 310 1,668 1,417 491 110 316 1,479 1,320 460 74 Radio and television receiving s e t s .................................. 342 9801 46 470 445 80 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instrum en ts.................................... Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t............................... 31 172 354 220 125 35 209 365 244 139 38 •220 396 265 152 43 238 422 282 159 42 217 454 295 171 36 145 466 319 163 36 143 494 330 160 29 147 466 325 158 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ............................. ........................... Jewelry and silverware ................................................... Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 253 61 164 278 451 265 62 183 294 454 276 61 188 294 490 281 61 196 295 538 286 56 182 293 516 282 47 162 280 463 289 43 161 281 448 294 37 152 263 441 128 D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1S58-i5—-Continued (Millions of hours) Historical mausxry 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1,276 563 3,295 461 921 1,194 574 3,072 445 951 1,114 572 3,012 455 950 948 573 2,915 418 912 43 349 358 2,219 1,268 44 414 381 2,336 1,323 46 429 401 2,423 1,395 49 450 416 2,469 1,434 49 455 433 2,480 1,477 449 189 10,190 6,237 20,037 461 205 10,685 6,512 20,675 466 203 11,230 6,746 20,787 467 224 11,249 6,966 20,638 483 228 11,436 7,126 20,654 488 222 11,167 7,262 20,069 2,493 1,431 3,045 0 2,066 2,586 1,520 3,148 0 2,223 2,708 1,614 3,337 0 2,499 2,835 1,730 3,440 0 2,710 2,967 1,821 3,520 0 2,678 3,092 1,929 3,550 0 2,665 3,141 1,987 3,636 0 2,556 2,277 2,169 1,013 3,957 263 2,335 2,146 1,066 4,231 265 2,458 2,176 1,094 4,557 279 2,525 2,497 1,123 5,029 298 2,626 2,572 1,130 5,470 318 2,662 2,610 1,164 5,937 324 2,757 2,603 1,150 6,279 328 2,839 2,636 1,127 6,492 353 Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile repair ............................................................ Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................ Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services ..................................... 3,060 1,336 412 1,115 1,953 3,008 1,443 429 1,173 2,001 3,302 1,514 453 1,186 2,098 3,443 1,626 455 1,259 2,221 3,668 1,737 472 1,238 2,317 3,824 1,698 473 1,325 2,429 4,028 1,710 466 1,376 2,502 4,233 1,811 503 1,386 2,510 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 4,107 1,852 2,789 3,137 1,464 4,243 1,979 2,582 3,146 1,399 4,367 2,130 2,686 3,151 1,363 4,494 2,301 2,658 3,571 1,374 4,651 2,436 2,793 3,645 1,392 4,884 2,576 2,987 3,752 1,396 5,142 2,725 3,052 3,674 1,406 5,364 2,869 3,181 3,665 1,408 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 310 232 1,039 0 0 311 252 1,022 0 0 307 256 1,034 0 0 315 264 1,069 0 0 326 270 1,125 0 0 323 354 1,060 0 0 315 356 1,031 0 0 310 354 1,014 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government indu stry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 7,026 0 0 2,175 0 0 7,408 0 0 2,250 0 0 8,109 0 0 2,285 0 0 9,034 0 0 2,240 0 0 9,662 0 0 2,097 0 0 8,532 0 0 1,961 0 0 8,493 0 0 1,921 0 0 7,929 0 0 1,947 0 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 1,239 573 2,753 345 756 1,227 569 2,849 346 780 1,242 541 3,037 343 795 1,236 534 3,234 386 823 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and te le visio n .............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 37 275 310 2,074 1,119 38 283 322 2,047 1,136 40 312 335 2,111 1,180 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding p u blic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s ............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 462 181 9,472 5,671 19,331 451 188 9,870 5,913 19,611 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 2,426 1,373 3,022 0 2,027 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging place s.............................................. Personal and repair services ......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s.................................. Advertising............. ........................................................... 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. 129 0-3. Totai hours paid by industry, 1953-95— Continued (Millions of hours) Projected Industry Low 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1995 alternatives 1990 alternatives Moderate High Low Moderate High Dairy and poultry products............................................... Meat animals and live s to c k............................................. C o tto n ................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ....................................................... Other agricultural p ro d u c ts .............................................. 854 1,073 124 1,318 2,577 868 1,072 123 1,330 2,605 875 1,074 124 1,339 2,630 773 992 113 1,282 2,474 809 1,005 113 1,296 2,524 825 1,017 116 1,317 2,574 6. Forestry and fishery products ......................................... 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................. 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ....................................... 9. Copper ore mining ............................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r.............. 153 1,378 50 55 67 166 1,342 50 54 67 187 1,320 44 52 65 197 1,489 50 66 68 190 1,502 52 71 68 204 1,513 46 72 67 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ....................................................................... Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ..................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................ Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .......................... Maintenance and repair con struction............................ 622 614 189 69 3,421 596 652 196 69 3,270 573 630 206 68 3,241 643 739 160 78 3,598 655 749 171 76 3,637 664 678 193 76 3,695 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance........................................................................... Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s ............................. Meat products................................................................... Dairy products................................................................... Canned and frozen foods ............................................... 189 271 716 284 650 182 269 716 300 659 184 264 720 325 670 185 309 729 244 657 179 289 740 262 668 190 296 756 272 691 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill p roducts........................................................... Bakery products ............................................................... S ugar.................................................................................. Confectionery products ................................................... Alcoholic beverages......................................................... 309 400 62 155 177 311 415 63 158 183 312 414 64 162 182 301 320 54 140 161 309 342 57 145 170 316 349 61 155 174 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s............................................... Other food products......................................................... Tobacco m anufacturing................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................... Floor covering m ills .......................................................... 334 351 119 888 105 342 353 120 914 112 343 348 125 906 130 322 360 97 928 116 338 372 101 930 120 346 374 113 945 130 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products............................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................... Apparel .............................................................................. Other fabricated textile products.................................... Lo gging.............................................................................. 142 400 1,935 436 261 147 424 1,972 443 264 155 425 1,947 452 264 132 437 2,038 461 252 136 461 2,043 468 259 150 471 1,983 477 262 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills .............................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts.............. Wooden containers.......................................................... Household furniture.......................................................... Furniture and fixtures, except household...................... 387 796 24 636 386 395 817 25 669 401 424 859 26 725 417 413 825 19 662 397 416 843 22 691 413 430 896 24 779 424 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper p ro d u c ts ................................................................. Paperboard........................................................................ Newspaper printing and publishing................................ Periodical, book printing and publishing ....................... Other printing and publishing ......................................... 1,118 400 937 590 1,466 1,125 425 944 591 1,522 1,144 440 943 602 1,513 1,140 375 983 654 1,491 1,149 402 1,021 669 1,584 1,189 434 1,041 679 1,618 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals................... Agricultural chem icals...................................................... Other chemical products................................................. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r.......................... Synthetic fib e rs ................................................................. 761 174 224 233 230 754 180 233 242 243 745 181 254 253 259 777 175 243 237 252 790 187 249 243 256 794 198 251 259 278 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ................................................................................. Cleaning and toilet preparations.................................... Paints and allied products............................................... Petroleum refining and related products....................... Tires and inner tu b e s ....................................................... 532 348 138 398 210 534 353 145 396 213 532 349 149 396 218 578 349 134 382 212 586 367 144 391 216 591 371 151 395 224 130 D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of hours) Projected 1995 alternatives 1990 alternatives Industry Low Moderate High Low Moderate High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ...................... Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather........................... Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................. G la s s ................................................................................... 301 1,166 30 311 425 310 1,319 32 318 432 324 1,359 33 320 440 299 1,360 22 275 451 305 1,491 25 289 451 324 1,550 29 268 455 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products...................................... Structural clay products................................................... Pottery and related products.......................................... Other stone and clay products....................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products....................... 467 73 88 314 843 505 78 92 330 875 527 83 94 349 865 450 61 93 350 866 501 65 97 363 890 537 72 99 381 883 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ........................... Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................ Primary aluminum and aluminum products................... Primary nonferrous metals and products...................... Metal containers............................................................... 493 324 348 175 149 510 331 364 178 153 516 341 365 182 154 525 343 349 173 136 533 349 367 177 137 543' 365 379 187 144 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s ..................... Fabricated structural metal products............................. Screw machine products................................................. Metal stam pings............................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................ 146 1,103 234 484 361 150 1,181 244 516 374 166 1,242 248 524 383 158 1,160 252 487 401 161 1,285 260 517 403 186 1,389 264 532 412 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................... Engines, turbines, and ge nerators................................. Farm machinery................................................................ Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................ Material handling equipm ent........................................... 789 311 338 658 224 843 314 351 674 232 841 315 357 681 247 809 340 341 714 250 867 343 350 740 254 878 348 363 762 276 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery.................................................. Special industry m achinery............................................. General industrial m achinery.......................................... Other nonelectrical machinery........................................ Computers and peripheral equipm ent........................... 770 428 691 664 1,235 808 431 706 686 1,236 818 439 707 711 1,250 772 433 717 705 1,395 824 437 726 720 1,448 854 455 738 762 1,474 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipment ....................... Service industry m a chines.............................................. Electric transmission equipment .................................... Electrical industrial apparatus......................................... Household a p pliance s..................................................... 116 387 483 518 360 126 408 506 532 379 135 440 507 560 406 140 424 505 575 390 144 439 522 579 398 151 435 536 630 434 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g .............................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................. Radio and communication equipm ent........................... Electronic com ponents.................................................... 468 193 368 945 491 218 383 904 510 226 414 921 522 232 430 962 527 239 473 969 1,521 1,565 1,671 513 217 429 1,117 1,836 1,810 1,825 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent................... 97. Motor v e h ic le s .................................................................. 98. A irc ra ft............................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir.................................. 100. Railroad equipm e nt......................................................... 336 1,670 1,511 538 90 352 1,758 1,438 528 93 373 1,746 1,404 515 95 397 1,774 1,600 572 94 400 1,793 1,484 554 100 431 1,817 1,467 540 105 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ................................... Other transportation equipm ent..................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents........................... Medical and dental instruments .................................... Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t............................... 36 171 609 425 169 38 190 606 420 175 39 215 608 436 179 39 203 713 556 176 41 215 718 558 184 44 242 739 561 197 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ......................... Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................ Jewelry and silverw a re................................................... Musical instruments and sporting go o d s...................... Other manufactured products........................................ 352 45 149 273 428 357 46 165 284 437 366 48 179 294 458 368 46 191 291 443 370 43 196 298 448 386 45 131 222 306 490 D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued (Millions of hours) Projected Industry 1990 alternatives Low Moderate 1995 alternatives High Low Moderate High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ................................... Truck transportation........................................................ Water transportation ....................................................... Air transportation............................................................. 755 602 3,408 391 1,033 798 595 3,397 416 1,054 916 602 3,424 424 1,046 687 598 3,470 398 1,091 737 619 3,534 416 1,104 792 659 3,609 420 1,114 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation.................................................... Transportation s e rv ic e s .................................................. Radio and television broadcasting................................ Communications except radio and tele visio n.............. Electric utilities, public and priva te................................ 49 514 587 2,796 1,447 51 528 600 2,786 1,502 55 489 569 2,898 1,506 52 569 689 3,061 1,512 52 581 693 3,161 1,532 57 579 695 3,180 1,546 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding Dublic......................................... Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic ................. Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s ............................................. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 465 293 12,073 7,862 22,306 460 278 12,395 7,919 22,776 462 279 12,646 7,929 23,093 431 301 12,854 8,715 22,950 435 305 13,118 8,810 23,896 445 318 13,248 8,850 24,327 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking............................................................................. Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs .......................... Insurance.......................................................................... Owner-occupied real e s ta te ........................................... Real e s ta te ....................................................................... 3,656 2,484 4,198 0 2,866 3,648 2,557 4,169 0 2,999 3,668 2,586 4,172 0 2,135 3,886 2,839 4,277 0 3,169 3,921 2,862 4,348 0 3,186 3,960 2,922 4,422 0 3,209 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging p la ce s.............................................. Personal and repair s e rv ic e s ......................................... Barber and beauty s h o p s ............................................... Miscellaneous business services .................................. A dvertising........................................................................ 3,134 2,872 1,150 8,378 396 3,137 2,976 1,164 8,710 405 3,098 3,175 1,209 8,945 409 3,223 2,977 1,224 10,326 420 3,234 3,062 1,270 10,367 431 3,271 3,337 1,316 10,401 439 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services ............................ Automobile re p a ir............................................................ Motion pictures ................................................................ Amusements and recreation services .......................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services ..................................... 4,879 1,897 515 1,610 3,059 5,005 2,019 499 1,648 3,094 4,967 2,151 500 1,683 3,322 5,430 2,193 502 1,792 3,157 5,593 2,245 507 1,822 3,212 5,771 2,320 524 1,908 3,356 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals........................................................................... Medical services, except hospitals ............................... Educational services (private)........................................ Nonprofit organizations................................................... Post O ffic e ........................................................................ 6,765 3,472 4,040 4,064 1,307 6,884 3,670 3,562 4,097 1,240 6,755 3,788 3,304 4,170 1,236 7,627 4,323 3,747 4,105 1,096 7,637 4.386 3,885 4,189 1,185 7,957 4,478 3,909 4,358 1,212 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ...................................... Other Federal en terp rises.............................................. Local government passenger tra n s it............................ Other State and local enterprises................................. Noncomparable imports ................................................. 0 370 421 1,219 0 0 360 422 1,244 0 0 368 434 1,296 0 0 365 461 1,372 0 0 378 469 1,418 0 0 395 502 1,531 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................ New construction indu stry.............................................. Government industry....................................................... Rest-of-world indu stry..................................................... Private households.......................................................... Inventory valuation adjustm ent...................................... 0 10,073 0 0 1,678 0 0 10,117 0 0 1,628 0 0 10,317 0 0 1,619 0 0 11,303 0 0 1,479 0 0 11,511 0 0 1,538 0 0 11,608 0 0 1,563 0 132 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives {Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High A gricultu re, fo re s try , and fishing Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 1,529.0 100.00 1,417.9 1,445.1 1,475.3 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Agricultural scientists....................................................................................................... Veterinarians..................................................................................................................... Airplane p ilo ts ................................................................................................................... A th le te s ............................................................................................................................. Accountants and a u ditors............................................................................................... A rc h ite c ts .......................................................................................................................... Foresters and conservationists...................................................................................... Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs ................................................................................. 48.8 3.3 10.5 2.5 7.6 2.4 3.2 4.8 1.0 3.19 .22 .69 .17 .50 .16 .21 .32 .07 52.5 3.9 12.4 3.0 7.1 2.3 3.8 4.8 1.1 53.4 4.0 12.7 3.1 7.3 2.3 3.9 4.7 1.1 54.9 4.1 12.9 3.1 7.4 2.3 4.0 5.1 1.1 3.70 .28 .88 .21 .50 .16 .27 .33 .07 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 24.5 1.60 28.0 28.5 29.3 1.97 Sales w orke rs...................................................................................................................... 12.8 .84 12.2 12.5 12.7 .86 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Bookkeepers, h a n d .......................................................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ...................................................................................... R eceptionists.................................................................................................................... S ecretaries........................................................................................................................ T y p is ts ............................................................................................................................... 53.3 16.4 1.4 6.4 17.7 1.6 3.49 1.07 .09 .42 1.16 .10 53.6 16.7 1.2 7.6 16.3 1.7 54.7 17.0 1.2 7.8 16.6 1.7 55.9 17.4 1.3 7.9 16.9 1.8 3.79 1.18 .09 .54 1.15 .12 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Carpenters ........................................................................................................................ Electricians........................................................................................................................ Painters, construction and maintenance ...................................................................... Plumbers and pip e fitte rs................................................................................................. Automotive m e chanics.................................................................................................... Engineering equipment m echanics................................................................................ Farm equipment m echanics........................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors....................................................................................... Crane, derrick, and hoist operators............................................................................... Heavy equipment operators ........................................................................................... Merchandise displayers and window trim m e rs ............................................................ 67.1 7.8 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.9 7.9 2.1 16.4 1.2 2.5 3.4 4.39 .51 .08 .08 .12 .12 .52 .14 1.07 .08 .16 .22 64.1 6.8 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.9 7.4 1.8 16.9 1.1 2.7 2.8 65.3 6.9 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.9 7.5 1.9 17.2 1.1 2.8 2.9 66.7 7.1 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.0 7.7 1.9 17.6 1.1 2.8 2.9 4.52 .48 .08 .08 .12 .13 .52 .13 1.19 .08 .19 .20 O oeratives............................................................................................................................. Welders and flam ecutters............................................................................................... S aw yers.............................................................................................................................. Industrial truck o o e ra to rs ................................................................................................ Truckdriving occu pation s................................................................................................ Delivery and route w o rk e rs ........................................................................................... Truck drivers ................................................................................................................... 51.7 2.9 1.7 1.3 26.4 6.7 19.7 3.38 .19 .11 .09 1.73 .44 1.29 51.7 2.5 1.7 1.3 25.3 5.7 19.6 52.7 2.5 1.8 1.4 25.8 5.8 20.0 53.9 2.6 1.8 1.4 26.4 6.0 20.4 3.65 .17 .12 .09 1.79 .40 1.38 Service w orke rs................................................................................................................... Building custodians.......................................................................................................... G ua rds................................................................................. .............................................. 10.7 3.5 1.1 .70 .23 .07 10.5 3.8 1.1 10.7 3.9 1.1 10.9 4.0 1.1 .74 .27 .07 Laborers, except farm .............................................................................. .......................... Animal caretake rs............................................................................................................ Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ............................................................. Helpers tra d e s ................................................................................................................. Loaders, tank cars and tru c k s ....................................................................................... 228.0 61.9 132.8 2.2 3.1 14.91 4.05 8.68 .14 .20 270.1 66.1 168.6 2.5 3.7 275.1 67.5 172.4 2.6 3.7 282.6 69.0 175.8 2.7 3.8 19.04 4.67 11.93 ,18 .26 Farmers and farm w o rk e rs ................................................................................................ Farm m anagers................................................................................................................ Farm supervisors ............................................................................................................. Farm la bo rers................................................................................................................... 1,032.0 40.1 32.6 959.3 67.50 2.62 2.13 62.74 875.2 51.0 30.8 793.3 892.2 52.0 31.4 808.8 908.1 52.9 31.9 823.2 61.74 3.60 2.17 55.97 See footnotes at end of table. 133 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Confinusd (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High lin in g Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 1,121.2 100.00 1,164.6 1,195.4 1,185.6 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Electrical e n ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Mining engineers...................... ........................................................................................ Petroleum engineers......................................................................................................... G eo logists.......................................................................................................................... D rafters............................................................................................................................... Computer programmers ................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ Lease b u ye rs..................................................................................................................... 154.1 3.7 2.7 20.2 25.6 7.2 3.4 5.2 18.2 9.9 13.74 .33 .24 1.80 2.28 .64 .30 .46 1.63 .88 178.6 3.6 3.4 24.1 30.8 5.5 6.2 10.6 23.1 10.1 182.7 3.7 3.5 24.6 31.5 5.6 6.3 10.8 23.6 10.3 172.7 3.6 3.5 22.9 29.4 5.3 6.1 10.1 22.1 9.5 15.29 .31 .29 2.06 2.63 .47 .53 .91 1.98 .86 Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................. 80.5 7.18 87.5 89.7 88.1 7.50 Sales w o rke rs....................................................................................................................... 6.8 .61 6.1 6.3 6.4 .53 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Computer operators.......................................................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ....................................................................................... R eceptionists..................................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... S tenographers................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ............................................... ...................... 126.9 13.2 4.9 19.5 5.0 5.1 4.0 29.3 1.7 5.6 4.5 11.32 1.18 .44 1.74 .45 .46 .36 2.61 .16 .50 .40 121.4 11.1 4.6 15.9 6.6 5.2 4.0 30.1 2.0 5.6 5.3 124.5 11.4 4.7 16.4 6.8 5.3 4.1 30.8 2.0 5.8 5.4 120.8 10.9 4.7 16.1 6.4 5.3 3.9 29.5 1.9 5.6 5.4 10.42 .96 .40 1.37 .57 .45 .34 2.58 .17 .48 .45 Craft and related w o rk e rs ............... ................................................................................... Electricians......................................................................................................................... Automotive m e chanics..................................................................................................... Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................. Engineering equipment m echanics................................................................................. Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... Mine machinery m echanics............................................................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ Crane, derrick, and hoist operators............................................................................... Heavy equipment operators ............................................................................................ Oil p u m p e rs ....................................................................................................................... Pumpers, head .................................................................................................................. 256.8 12.1 8.4 7.3 6.5 10.3 15.8 12.8 51.7 5.6 54.5 17.8 10.2 22.91 1.08 .75 .66 .58 .92 1.41 1.14 4.62 .50 4.87 1.59 .91 286.9 14.5 8.6 7.7 7.3 12.4 15.9 16.8 55.4 5.7 67.1 17.8 10.0 294.8 14.9 8.9 8.0 7.5 12.7 16.3 17.2 56.9 5.9 69.1 18.2 10.2 294.5 14.9 9.0 8.1 7.7 12.5 16.4 17.3 56.6 6.0 70.8 16.7 9.6 24.66 1.25 .75 .67 .63 1.07 1.37 1.44 4.76 .49 5.78 1.52 .86 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Welders and flam ecutte rs................................................................................................. Mine operatives, nec........................................................................................................... Continuous mining machine operators.......................................................................... Derrick operators, petroleum and gas .......................................................................... Loading machine operators............................................................................................ Roof b o lte rs ....................................................................................................................... Service unit operators, oil w e ll....................................................................................... Shuttle car operators....................................................................................................... Well p u lle rs ........................................................................................................................ Truck d riv e rs ....................................................................................................................... B lasters................................................................................................................................ Drillers, hand and m a c h in e ............................................................................................... O ile rs .................................................................................................................................... Rotary drill o p e ra to rs ......................................................................................................... Rotary drill operator h e lp e rs ............................................................................................ 401.6 21.3 203.4 7.8 16.9 7.1 11.0 12.4 11.2 6.6 39.6 7.2 9.9 6.2 22.8 33.3 35.81 1.90 18.14 .69 1.51 .64 .98 1.11 1.00 .59 3.53 .64 .89 .55 2.04 2.97 391.2 22.0 194.2 10.2 14.6 8.3 14.4 10.8 12.4 6.0 39.0 7.9 11.3 8.4 19.9 28.7 401.8 22.7 199.1 10.5 15.0 8.6 14.8 11.0 12.7 6.2 40.5 8.1 11.6 8.7 20.4 29.4 406.3 22.9 200.3 10.6 15.2 8.8 15.0 11.1 12.8 6.1 41.8 8.3 11.8 8.9 20.5 29.8 33.61 1.90 16.66 .88 1.25 .72 1.24 .92 1.06 .52 3.38 .68 .97 .73 1.70 2.46 See footnotes at end of table. 134 E-1. E m ploym ent in ssteeted industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1995 alternatives 1982 Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High lin in g —C ontinued Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 13.3 5.2 1.19 .47 13.9 5.4 14.3 5.5 14.2 5.5 1.19 .46 Laborers, except farm ......................................................................................................... Conveyor operators and te n d e rs .................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 81.3 4.7 12.2 7.25 .42 1.09 78.9 5.3 12.7 81.3 5.5 13.1 82.5 5.7 13.4 6.80 .46 1.10 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 3,913.0 100.00 5,632.5 5,773.5 5,882.8 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Civil engineers................................................................................................................... D rafters............................................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................. Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ Cost e stim ators................................................................................................................. 199.6 16.0 18.8 10.1 24.0 68.6 5.10 .41 .48 .26 .61 1.75 289.6 28.2 18.0 16.9 34.9 99.3 296.8 28.9 18.5 17.3 35.8 101.8 302.5 29.4 18.8 17.7 36.5 103.7 5.14 .50 .32 .30 .62 1.76 Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................. 410.6 10.49 632.0 647.8 660.4 11.22 Sales w orke rs....................................................................................................................... 46.7 1.19 68.0 69.7 71.2 1.21 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, hand ........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ...................................................................... 323.8 16.2 50.8 78.5 90.1 16.7 16.2 8.27 .41 1.30 2.01 2.30 .43 .41 449.8 22.4 70.3 117.2 117.7 23.1 19.8 461.0 23.0 72.1 120.1 120.6 23.7 20.3 470.0 23.4 73.5 122.5 122.9 24.2 20.7 7.99 .40 1.25 2.08 2.09 .41 .35 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Construction craft w o rk e rs ................................................................................................ Insulation w o rk e rs ............................................................................................................. Bricklayers ......................................................................................................................... Carpenters ......................................................................................................................... Cement masons and terrazzo w o rk e rs .......................................................................... Drywall applicators............................................................................................................ Tapers ................................................................................................................................ Electricians......................................................................................................................... Carpet cutters, carpet la y e rs ........................................................................................... Floor la y e rs ........................................................................................................................ Glaziers .............................................................................................................................. Reinforcing-iron w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. 1,993.0 1,385.9 35.2 63.3 379.0 78.0 38.4 19.2 237.4 12.7 14.2 16.6 32.4 47.3 103.3 13.1 196.6 63.5 175.8 65.7 15.2 28.4 19.0 17.0 14.9 87.1 73.8 21.4 175.5 50.93 35.42 .90 1.62 9.68 1.99 .98 .49 6.07 .33 .36 .43 .83 1.21 2.64 .33 5.02 1.62 4.49 1.68 .39 .73 .49 .43 .38 2.23 1.89 .55 4.48 2,859.5 1,988.3 52.1 87.7 568.5 111.4 55.5 27.5 338.9 18.1 20.4 21.6 43.0 65.0 148.1 13.8 286.1 84.8 248.8 98.2 21.3 35.9 26.3 24.2 17.3 124.3 113.6 29.8 247.3 2,931.4 2,038.7 53.6 90.1 583.1 114.2 57.1 28.3 347.4 18.7 21.0 22.1 44.1 66.7 151.2 14.2 293.2 86.8 254.9 100.6 21.8 36.8 27.0 24.8 17.7 127.4 116.4 30.5 253.3 2,986.2 2,076.9 54.6 91.9 594.6 116.4 58.2 28.8 354.0 19.1 21.4 22.6 44.9 67.9 153.1 14.5 298.8 88.3 259.7 102.5 22.2 37.5 27.5 25.2 18.1 129.8 118.6 31.1 257.8 50.77 35.31 .93 1.56 10.10 1.98 .99 .49 6.02 .32 .36 .38 .76 1.15 2.62 .25 5.08 1.50 4.42 1.74 .38 .64 .47 .43 .31 2.21 2.02 .53 4.39 C onstruction Structural steel w orke rs ............................................................................................................ Painters, construction and maintenance ........................................... ........................... P lasterers........................................................................................................................... Plumbers and pip e fitte rs .................................................................................................. R oofers............................................................................................................................... Mechanics, repairers, and in s ta lle rs ................................................................................ Air conditioning, refrigeration, and heating m echanics............................................... Automotive m e chanics.................................................................................................... Line installers and cable s p lic e rs .................................................................................. Industrial machinery re paire rs........................................................................... ............. Millwrights .......................................................................................................................... Boilermakers ....................................................................................................................... Sheet-metal workers and tinsm iths................................................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors......................................................................................... Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs................................................................................ Heavy equipment op erators............................................................................................. See footnotes at end of table. 135 E=1. Employm<sn£ in selected industries and occupation©,, 1982 and projected 1SS§ altemafiwes—ConSSnued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High C onstruction-—C ontinued O peratives............................................................................................................................. Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................ Truck d riv e rs ...................................................................................................................... 218.6 41.2 104.0 5.59 1.05 2.66 307.9 57.8 146.6 315.5 59.2 150.1 321.2 60.3 152.8 5.46 1.03 2.60 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 33.1 25.8 .84 .66 47.2 36.2 48.4 37.1 49.4 37.9 .84 .64 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Air hammer operators ...................................................................................................... Asphalt rakers .................................................................................................................. Fence e re c to rs .................................................................................................................. Pipelayers........................................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 687.7 10.1 14.9 13.9 28.8 321.2 17.58 .26 .38 .35 .73 8.21 978.4 14.1 20.9 17.9 40.2 432.0 1,002.9 14.5 21.4 18.4 41.2 443.0 1,022.0 14.7 21.7 18.7 41.9 451.6 17.37 .25 .37 .32 .71 7.67 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 465.9 100.00 714.8 733.1 747.4 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. D rafters............................................................................................................................ Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................ Cost e stim ators................................................................................................................. 14.5 2.0 2.8 7.5 3.11 .42 .61 1.61 22.5 1.9 4.4 11.5 23.1 2.0 4.5 11.8 23.6 2.0 4.6 12.0 3.15 .27 .61 1.61 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 71.0 15.24 117.7 120.7 123.0 16.46 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Real estate agents and b ro k e rs .................................................................................... 8.6 6.9 1.85 1.49 13.2 10.6 13.5 10.9 13.8 11.1 1.85 1.49 Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................... ............................ Accounting clerks ................................................................................. ........................... Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Payroll and timekeepinq c le rk s ...................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ 48.4 2.3 10.3 11.6 3.4 16.1 2.2 10.38 .49 2.21 2.50 .73 3.46 .46 72.8 3.5 15.8 20.5 5.2 20.7 3.3 74.7 3.6 16.2 21.0 5.4 21.2 3.4 76.1 3.7 16.5 21.4 5.5 21.6 3.5 10.18 .49 2.21 2.87 .73 2.89 .46 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Construction craft w o rk e rs ............................................................................................... Bricklayers ......................................................................................................................... Carpenters .......................................................................................... .............................. Cement masons and terrazzo w o rk e rs ........................... .................... ....................... Drywall applicators........................................................................................................... Electricians........................................................................................................................ Ironw orkers........................................................................................................................ Painters and paperhangers ............................................................................................ Plumbers and p ipe fitters.................................................................................................. R oofers............................................................................................................................... Mechanics, repairers, and installers ............................................................................... Sheet-metal workers and tinsm iths................................................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors......................................................................................... C abinetm akers.................................................................................................................... Heavy equipment operators.......................... ................................................................... 222.3 193.4 6.4 156.2 8.9 2.4 2.7 2.2 8.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 7.2 3.8 9.3 47.72 41.52 1.38 33.52 1.91 .51 .57 .47 1.72 .54 .46 .48 .46 1.55 .81 2.00 342.3 294.1 9.1 231.7 13.7 3.6 4.3 4.2 17.2 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.3 12.7 5.8 14.3 351.1 301.7 9.3 237.7 14.0 3.7 4.5 4.3 17.6 3.9 3.4 3.5 3.4 13.0 5.9 14.6 357.9 307.5 9.5 242.3 14.3 3.8 4.5 4.4 18.0 4.0 3.4 3.6 3.4 13.2 6.0 14.9 47.89 41.14 1.28 32.42 1.91 .51 .61 .59 2.40 .54 .46 .48 .46 1.77 .81 2.00 O peratives................................................................................................... ......................... Truck driv e rs ...................................................................................................................... 9.0 5.8 1.93 1.25 13.8 8.9 14.1 9.2 14.4 9.3 1.93 1.25 Service w orke rs................................................................................................................... Building custodians................................................................................ .......................... 8.1 6.7 1.74 1.43 10.5 8.3 10.8 8.5 11.0 8.6 1.47 1.16 R esidential building construction See footnotes at end of table. 136 E-1. Employment in ©@3@et®d industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High R esidential build ing c o n s tru c tio n —C ontinued Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 84.1 52.2 18.04 11.21 122.0 70.3 125.1 72.2 127.6 73.6 17.07 9.84 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 457.9 100.00 736.8 755.2 769.5 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ................................................................... Civil engineers................................................................................................................... Mechanical e n g in e e rs ...................................................................................................... D rafters............................................................................................................................... Accountants and a u d ito rs ................................................................................................ Cost estim ators................................................................................................................. Purchasing agents an d/or b u y e rs .................................................................................. 30.9 4.4 1.8 2.9 3.7 10.8 1.0 6.74 .96 .39 .64 .80 2.36 .22 49.2 7.0 2.9 3.1 5.9 17.4 1.6 50.4 7.2 2.9 3.2 6.1 17.9 1.7 51.3 7.4 3.0 3.3 6.2 18.2 1.7 6.67 .96 .39 .42 .80 2.36 .22 Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................. 55.2 12.05 92.7 95.0 96.8 12.58 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Sales agents, sales representatives, real e s ta te .......................................................... 2.9 2.0 .64 .45 4.7 3.3 4.8 3.4 4.9 3.4 .64 .45 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ......... ................................................................................................... Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ....................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ 35.5 2.2 5.3 6.2 3.6 10.4 1.8 7.75 .49 1.15 1.35 .79 2.27 .40 55.4 3.6 8.5 9.9 5.8 15.5 3.0 56.8 3.7 8.7 10.2 6.0 15.9 3.0 57.9 3.8 8.9 10.4 6.1 16.2 3.1 7.52 .49 1.15 1.35 .79 2.11 .40 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Construction craft w o rk e rs ................................................................................................ Insulation w o rk e rs ............................................................................................................. B ricklayers......................................................................................................................... C arp ente rs......................................................................................................................... Cement masons and terrazzo w o rk e rs .......................................................................... Drywall applicators............................................................................................................ Electricians......................................................................................................................... Fitters, pipelaying.............................................................................................................. Reinforcing-iron w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Structural steel w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Painters and paperhangers............................................................................................. Plumbers and pip e fitte rs .................................................................................................. Maintenance repairers, general u tility .............................................................................. M illw rights............................................................................................................................ 208.9 159.0 1.1 8.2 99.3 13.8 1.6 3.6 2.0 7.5 8.9 4.1 7.1 1.6 5.3 339.7 254.8 1.7 12.1 162.3 22.2 2.5 5.8 3.1 11.2 12.7 6.7 11.4 2.6 8.5 354.8 266.1 1.8 12.7 169.5 23.2 2.7 6.1 3.3 11.7 13.2 7.0 11.9 2.7 8.8 25.7 2.1 3.3 16.5 348.2 261.2 1.7 12.4 166.3 22.7 2.6 5.9 3.2 11.5 13.0 6.8 11.7 2.6 8.7 5.4 26.4 2.2 3.3 16.9 26.9 2.2 3.4 17.2 46.11 34.58 .23 1.65 22.02 3.01 .34 .79 .43 1.52 1.72 .90 1.55 .35 1.15 .72 3.49 .29 .44 2.24 N onresidential building c o n s tru c tio n S heet-m etal w orke rs and tin s m ith s ......................................................................................... 3.3 Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................... C abinetm akers.................................................................................................................... Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs ................................................................................. Heavy equipment op erators.............................................................................................. 12.7 1.3 2.0 10.3 45.62 34.72 .23 1.79 21.68 3.01 .34 .79 .43 1.65 1.93 .90 1.55 .35 1.15 .72 2.77 .29 .44 2.24 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Metalworking o p e ra tiv e s .................................................................................................. Truck driv e rs ...................................................................................................................... 18.1 5.3 6.5 3.95 1.16 1.43 29.1 8.5 10.5 29.8 8.7 10.8 30.4 8.9 11.0 3.95 1.16 1.43 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 3.3 2.9 .73 .63 5.4 4.6 5.5 4.7 5.6 4.8 .73 .63 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Construction laborers except trade h e lp e rs .................................................................. Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 103.1 1.8 40.8 22.52 .39 8.92 160.6 2.8 55.5 164.6 2.9 56.9 167.7 3.0 58.0 21.79 .39 7.53 See footnotes at end of table. 137 5.3 5.5 E-1. Employment in seiected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High M anufacturing Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 18,848.3 100.00 22,580.1 23,110.2 23,753.0 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Electrical e n ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers .......................................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ...................................................................................................... D rafters...................................... ........................................................................................ Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................. Computer program m ers................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ 1,936.5 162.7 120.4 118.8 112.2 137.7 73.1 51.0 131.7 10.27 .86 .64 .63 .60 .73 .39 .27 .70 2,640.3 268.2 173.2 174.6 99.1 220.8 108.9 87.2 164.1 2,652.7 263.9 173.6 176.6 101.4 219.6 110.9 88.0 167.2 2,717.3 270.1 178.3 181.9 105.0 224.8 113.6 90.2 172.0 11.48 1.14 .75 .76 .44 .95 .48 .38 .72 Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................. 1,260.1 6.69 1,673.2 1,714.2 1,763.9 7.42 Sales w o rke rs....................................................................................................................... 413.7 2.19 460.9 477.7 491.4 2.07 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Production clerks .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving c le rk s ......................................................................................... Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ...................................................................... 2,215.3 131.5 268.5 141.4 302.6 103.7 129.9 155.7 148.8 11.75 .70 1.42 .75 1.61 .55 .69 .83 .79 2,653.9 151.4 333.8 176.3 384.3 124.1 150.2 180.8 167.5 2,712.9 155.2 342.8 177.9 392.7 126.7 154.6 186.2 169.8 2,787.9 159.7 352.6 182.7 404.0 130.1 159.1 191.0 174.4 11.74 .67 1.48 .77 1.70 .55 .67 .81 .73 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Electricians......................................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs............... ......................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................ M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................. Typesetters and com positors.......................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ Inspectors .......................................................................................................................... Testers ............................................................................................................................... 3,499.8 123.7 215.7 173.4 152.1 147.0 84.7 616.2 376.3 109.9 18.57 .66 1.14 .92 .81 .78 .45 3.27 2.00 .58 4,211.1 152.0 270.0 208.7 188.1 173.1 71.1 736.9 477.6 141.3 4,323.4 155.1 278.1 215.7 192.7 178.4 74.1 756.0 485.5 142.2 4,450.3 159.1 286.5 222.8 198.7 184.3 75.7 777.8 497.9 146.4 18.71 .67 1.20 .93 .83 .77 .32 3.27 2.10 .62 O peratives............................................................................................................................. A ssem b le rs........................................................................................................................ Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................ Electrical and electronic assemblers ............................................................................. Machine assem blers......................................................................................................... Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs ..................................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l....................................................... Lathe machine operators, m e ta l..................................................................................... Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................. Punch press operators, m e ta l......................................................................................... Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................ Production packagers....................................................................................................... Painters, production.......................................................................................................... Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, garm ent........................................... Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, nongarm ent.................................... Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................. Truck d riv e rs ...................................................................................................................... Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers............................................................................ Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper and allied products................................. Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied products ......................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and plastic products.............................. Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable g o o d s ..................................................... 7,570.1 305.1 98.6 284.5 169.8 115.0 114.4 135.9 152.1 146.5 313.7 432.4 98.0 511.5 118.6 254.6 197.3 98.8 92.1 145.8 189.7 213.4 40.16 1.62 .52 1.51 .90 .61 .61 .72 .81 .78 1.66 2.29 .52 2.71 .63 1.35 1.05 .52 .49 .77 1.01 1.13 8,715.5 359.6 130.8 363.4 208.2 136.3 122.1 154.5 196.3 166.4 355.0 473.5 111.5 534.1 141.0 290.6 215.1 123.5 97.1 172.0 250.3 223.1 8,942.1 375.7 132.1 360.3 212.4 139.2 125.5 158.3 201.4 172.4 367.3 490.4 114.3 540.1 144.3 300.2 226.9 126.3 100.1 177.2 266.2 229.8 9,183.9 394.4 136.2 369.5 220.5 143.7 129.8 163.1 208.5 179.3 380.4 504.6 118.3 527.6 146.2 310.7 236.7 130.3 105.0 182.8 276.1 233.2 38.69 1.63 .57 1.56 .92 .60 .54 .68 .87 .75 1.59 2.12 .49 2.34 .62 1.30 .98 .55 .43 .77 1.15 .99 See footnotes at end of table. 138 E-1. Employment: en selected industries and ©eeupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—-Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1995 alternatives 1982 Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High M anufacturing—C ontinued Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 348.6 224.8 1.85 1.19 400.7 253.8 410.5 260.9 422.2 268.4 1.78 1.13 Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................ Helpers, tra d e s ................................................................................................................. 1,604.2 127.6 8.51 .68 1,824.6 146.8 1,876.7 152.2 1,936.0 157.8 8.12 .66 Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 11,112.4 100.00 14,051.1 14,283.5 14,750.5 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Electrical e n ginee rs......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers ......................................................................................................... Mechanical en g in e e rs ..................................................................................................... D rafters............................................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. Computer program m ers.................................................................................................. Accountants and a u ditors............................................................................................... Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs ................................................................................. 1,403.3 156.9 102.7 95.2 98.3 133.3 58.1 86.2 64.6 12.63 1.41 .92 .86 .88 1.20 .52 .78 .58 2,001.9 261.6 153.1 148.7 87.7 215.6 91.1 112.7 82.7 1,993.8 257.1 152.9 149.9 89.6 214.2 92.5 113.9 83.4 2,043.6 263.1 157.0 154.3 92.9 219.3 94.8 117.3 85.9 13.96 1.80 1.07 1.05 .63 1.50 .65 .80 .58 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 742.6 6.68 1,038.3 1,054.3 1,089.1 7.38 Sales w orke rs...................................................................................................................... 159.9 1.44 189.7 195.4 203.3 1.37 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Production clerks .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries........................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................ Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 1,246.9 70.2 152.9 108.3 179.0 64.7 71.0 106.4 11.22 .63 1.38 .97 1.61 .58 .64 .96 1,549.1 84.4 196.2 138.9 226.0 80.5 85.2 122.3 1,567.8 85.7 200.2 139.1 228.6 82.1 87.1 123.1 1,619.7 88.6 207.3 142.9 236.1 85.0 90.4 126.8 10.98 .60 1.40 .97 1.60 .57 .61 .86 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Electricians......................................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs........................................................................................ Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... Millwrights .......................................................................................................................... M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Machine tool setters, m etalworking............................................................................... Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s ............................................................................... Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors....................................................................................... Inspectors .......................................................................................................................... T e s te rs ............................................................................................................................... 2,191.7 84.7 119.5 87.2 51.4 113.2 54.4 68.4 136.1 372.7 266.7 76.6 19.72 .76 1.08 .78 .46 1.02 .49 .62 1.22 3.35 2.40 .69 2,764.1 109.7 164.3 111.5 66.7 145.1 66.6 83.2 161.9 458.9 344.9 105.3 2,819.6 111.5 168.4 114.7 68.3 147.8 67.8 85.7 166.5 468.4 348.1 105.2 2,908.7 114.2 173.2 118.9 69.8 152.5 69.9 89.2 171.8 483.2 358.0 108.2 19.74 .78 1.18 .80 .48 1.03 .47 .60 1.17 3.28 2.44 .74 O peratives............................................................................................................................ Assembler occupations .................................................................................................... A ssem b le rs....................................................................................................................... Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................ Electrical and electronic assemblers ............................................................................ Machine assem blers........................................................................................................ Machine tool operators..................................................................................................... Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs .................................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l....................................................... Lathe machine operators, m e ta l.................................................................................... Milling/planing machine o p e ra to rs ................................................................................ Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................ Machine tool operators, numerical c o n tro l................................................................... 4,276.9 1,248.2 253.6 98.6 284.5 169.8 890.9 115.0 114.4 135.9 60.2 152.1 66.1 38.49 11.23 2.28 .89 2.56 1.53 8.02 1.03 1.03 1.22 .54 1.37 .59 5,189.8 1,547.5 300.1 130.8 363.4 208.2 1,059.2 136.3 122.1 154.5 67.2 196.3 93.6 5,303.0 1,563.6 311.9 132.1 360.3 212.4 1,087.3 139.2 125.5 158.3 68.3 201.4 95.5 5,490.7 1,618.2 328.6 136.2 369.5 220.5 1,124.7 143.7 129.8 163.1 70.3 208.5 98.7 37.13 10.95 2.18 .93 2.52 1.49 7.61 .97 .88 1.11 .48 1.41 .67 Durable goods m anufacturing See footnotes at end of table. 139 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Durable go ods m a nufa cturing—C ontinued Punch press operators, m e ta l......................................................................................... Welders and flamecutters ................................................................................................. Production pa ckagers........................................................................................................ Painters, p roductio n........................................................................................................... Sawyers ............................................................................................................................... Industrial truck operators................................................................................................... Truck d riv e rs ....................................................................................................................... Filers, grinders, buffers, and ch ip p e rs ............................................................................. Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary m e ta ls ..................................................... Miscellaneous operatives, nec, durable g o o d s ............................................................. 146.0 300.4 111.4 93.9 67.1 153.7 119.9 98.3 69.1 71.7 1.31 2.70 1.00 .85 .60 1.38 1.08 .88 .62 .65 165.8 341.2 133.8 106.1 80.9 181.7 136.5 122.8 81.6 83.8 171.9 353.1 137.3 108.4 82.7 187.2 145.2 125.6 84.5 86.6 178.7 365.8 142.5 112.2 86.0 193.8 152.7 129.6 87.3 90.3 1.20 2.47 .96 .76 .58 1.31 1.02 .88 .59 .61 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 192.1 121.2 1.73 1.09 234.4 145.4 238.6 148.6 246.3 153.5 1.67 1.04 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 898.9 91.0 8.09 .82 1,083.8 108.0 1,111.0 112.0 1,149.1 116.3 7.78 .78 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 462.2 100.00 558.0 613.1 658.2 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Civil engineers................................................................................................................... Industrial engineers .......................................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ...................................................................................................... D rafters............................................................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................ Cost estim ators................................................................................................................. Purchasing agents and bu yers........................................................................................ 37.3 1.1 1.9 3.4 11.3 3.1 3.1 2.7 8.07 .24 .42 .74 2.45 .67 .67 .58 44.6 1.3 2.6 4.4 11.3 4.1 3.7 3.2 49.0 1.5 2.9 4.8 12.4 4.5 4.1 3.6 52.6 1.6 3.1 5.2 13.3 4.9 4.4 3.8 8.00 .24 .47 .79 2.03 .74 .66 .58 Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................. 34.4 7.43 49.3 54.2 58.1 8.83 Sales w o rke rs ....................................................................................................................... 10.8 2.34 12.0 13.2 14.2 2.15 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, hand ........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Office machine operators ................................................................................................ Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ....................................................................................... Production c le rk s .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................ Shipping packers ............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 43.2 2.2 3.7 7.6 2.6 1.3 2.6 7.6 2.2 1.8 2.2 9.34 .48 .79 1.64 .56 .28 .56 1.64 .49 .39 .48 49.7 2.2 4.0 9.5 2.8 1.5 3.1 8.5 2.7 2.2 2.2 54.6 2.4 4.3 10.4 3.1 1.7 3.4 9.3 3.0 2.4 2.4 58.6 2.6 4.7 11.2 3.4 1.8 3.7 10.0 3.2 2.6 2.6 8.90 .40 .71 1.70 .51 .28 .56 1.52 .48 .39 .40 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Electricians......................................................................................................................... Structural steel w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................ Layout markers, m e ta l...................................................................................................... M achinists...... ................................................................................................................... Punch press setters, m e ta l.............................................................................................. Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s ............................................................................... Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ Crane, derrick, and hoist operators............................................................................... Inspectors .......................................................................................................................... 107.9 2.0 3.6 4.5 3.2 6.3 3.1 1.5 17.9 2.0 15.4 4.1 4.8 23.33 .43 .78 .98 .70 1.36 .67 .32 3.87 .42 3.33 .88 1.04 147.7 3.2 5.8 7.1 5.2 7.0 4.6 1.8 20.5 2.1 18.6 5.5 7.5 162.3 3.6 6.4 7.8 5.7 7.7 5.0 2.0 22.5 2.3 20.5 6.0 8.2 174.2 3.8 6.9 8.4 6.1 8.3 5.4 2.1 24.1 2.5 22.0 6.4 8.8 26.47 .58 1.04 1.28 .93 1.26 .82 .32 3.67 .38 3.34 .98 1.34 Fabricated s tru c tu ra l metal products See footnotes at end of table. 140 E=1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Fa bricated structural m etal prod uc ts— C ontinued O peratives............................................................................................................................. A ssem blers........................................................................................................................ Machine tool o p erators.................................................................................................... Drill press and boring machine operators................................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, m eta!...................................................... Machine tool operators, com bination........................................................................... Punch press operators, metal ...................................................................................... Power brake, bending machine operators, m e ta l...................................................... Shear and slitter operators, metal ............................................................................... Welders and flam ecutters............................................................................................... Packing and inspecting operatives................................................................................ Painters, production......................................................................................................... S aw yers.............................................................................................................................. Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................ Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers............................................................................ Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary m e tals.................................................... 182.1 33.1 46.0 4.4 3.2 6.0 13.4 9.0 5.8 53.1 4.0 7.4 2.5 4.8 7.2 4.1 2.5 39.39 7.16 9.95 .96 .68 1.30 2.89 1.96 1.26 11.50 .86 1.60 .53 1.04 1.56 .88 .54 202.7 36.6 50.0 4.8 2.8 6.7 14.4 9.8 6.5 59.7 4.2 7.8 3.0 5.8 8.7 4.3 3.0 222.8 40.2 54.9 5.3 3.0 7.4 15.9 10.8 7.1 65.6 4.7 8.6 3.3 6.4 9.5 4.8 3.3 239,1 43.1 59.0 5.7 3.3 7.9 17.0 11.6 7.6 70.4 5.0 9.2 3.5 6.9 10.2 5.1 3.6 36.33 6.56 8.96 .86 .50 1.20 2.59 1.76 1.16 10.69 .76 1.40 .53 1.04 1.56 .78 .54 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 6.3 4.5 1.37 .98 7.6 5.5 8.4 6.0 9.0 6.4 1.37 .98 Laborers, except farm ......................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 40.3 17.4 8.72 3.77 44.3 19.3 48.7 21.3 52.3 22.8 7.94 3.47 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 489.7 100.00 731.5 762.5 778.6 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers ................................................................... Electrical en g in e e rs .......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers .......................................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ...................................................................................................... D rafters............................................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. Mechanical engineering technicians ............................................................................. Computer programmers ................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ D esigners........................................................................................................................... Writers and editors ........................................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................ Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... Purchasing agents and bu yers....................................................................................... 175.0 29.4 12.5 5.3 4.0 29.3 2.9 24.6 7.3 2.7 2.7 6.9 3.4 4.1 35.74 6.00 2.55 1.08 .81 5.99 .58 5.03 1.48 .56 .56 1.42 .69 .84 284.0 51.1 20.9 11.0 4.0 54.0 4.8 39.8 11.5 4.3 4.1 10.6 5.1 5.8 296.0 53.3 21.8 11.4 4.2 56.2 5.0 41.4 12.0 4.5 4.2 11.1 5.3 6.0 302.2 54.4 22.3 11.7 4.3 57.4 5.1 42.3 12.2 4.6 4.3 11.3 5.4 6.2 38.82 6.98 2.86 1.50 .55 7.38 .65 5.43 1.57 .59 .56 1.45 .69 .79 O ffice, com puting, and accounting m achines Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 54.0 11.03 86.1 89.7 91.6 11.76 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... 5.6 1.14 7.2 7.5 7.6 .98 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors........................................................................................................... General clerks, office ...................................................................................................... Computer operators.......................................................................................................... Data entry operators ........................................................................................................ Order c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... Production clerks ............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................ Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. 89.8 5.4 1.5 11.3 4.9 1.7 1.5 9.8 17.3 2.9 2.6 2.7 18.35 1.10 .30 2.31 1.00 .34 .31 2.00 3.52 .60 .54 .55 119.0 6.3 1.9 15.4 8.6 .7 2.3 12.2 22.4 4.0 3.9 3.1 124.0 6.6 2.0 16.1 9.0 .7 2.3 12.7 23.4 4.1 4.1 3.2 126.6 6.7 2.0 16.4 9.2 .7 2.4 13.0 23.9 4.2 4.2 3.3 16.26 .86 .26 2.11 1.18 .09 .31 1.67 3.07 .54 .54 .42 See footnotes at end of table. 141 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High O ffice, com puting, and accounting m achines— C ontinued Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 7.7 1.58 7.9 8.3 8.5 1.09 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Computer service technicians...... .................................................................................. Industrial machinery re paire rs........................................................................................ Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... Millwrights ......................................................................................................................... M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors........................... ........................................................... Inspectors .......................................................................................................................... Testers ............................................................................................................................... 46.6 2.1 1.3 2.5 1.2 1.3 7.9 13.8 7.3 9.52 .44 .26 .51 .24 .27 1.62 2.81 1.49 75.0 8.8 1.9 3.8 3.0 1.9 11.3 19.5 10.9 78.1 9.2 2.0 3.9 3.1 2.0 11.8 20.4 11.3 79.8 9.4 2.0 4.0 3.2 2.1 12.1 20.8 11.6 10.25 1.21 .26 .51 .41 .27 1.55 2.67 1.49 O peratives........... ................................................................................................................. Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................ Electrical and electronic assemblers .................................................................... ........ Machine assem blers........................................................................................................ Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs .................................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l....................................................... Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................ Machine tooi operators, numerical c o n tro l................................................................... Welders and fiam ecutters................................................................................................ Packing and inspecting operatives................................................................................ 102.5 24.6 42.4 7.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 20.93 5.03 8.65 1.57 .22 .27 .21 .26 .23 .21 138.4 35.0 53.3 10.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.5 144.3 36.5 55.5 11.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.6 147.3 37.2 56.7 11.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.6 18.92 4.78 7.29 1.44 .22 .27 .21 .26 .23 .21 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians......................................................................................... ................. G ua rds................................................................................................................................ 5.1 2.3 1.3 1.03 .48 .26 7.0 2.9 1.9 7.3 3.0 2.0 7.4 3.1 2.0 .96 .40 .26 Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................ ................................ Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. Stock handlers .................................................................................................................. 11.1 1.5 1.3 2.27 .31 .27 15.0 2.3 2.0 15.7 2.4 2.0 16.0 2.4 2.1 2.05 .31 .27 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 568.7 100.00 861.9 849.8 855.4 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Electrical e n ginee rs......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers ................................................................................................................... Mechanical en g in e e rs..................................................................................................... 107.5 26.8 6.1 3.8 189.2 61.9 10.5 7.6 186.5 61.0 10.4 7.5 4.7 34.5 5.0 7.2 5.3 187.7 61.4 10.5 7.6 4.8 34.8 5.1 7.3 5.3 E lectronic co m p on ents and accessories D ra fte rs ........... ............................................................................................................................... 4.7 Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. Mechanical engineering technicians ............................................................................. Computer program m ers.................................................................................................. Computer systems analysts ........................................................................................... Accountants and a u ditors ........................................................................................................ Personnel and labor relations specialists ............................................................................ Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs ......................................................................................... 23.0 2.9 4.0 2.7 4.7 2.5 3.7 18.90 4.71 1.07 .66 .83 4.05 .51 .70 .47 .33 .44 .65 Managers, officials, and proprie tors ......................................................................................... 37.8 Sales w o rk e rs ................................................................................................................................. Clerical w orke rs................................................................................... ................................... Accounting clerks ...................................................................................................................... Bookkeepers, h a n d .................................................................................................................... Clerical supervisors.......................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... Computer operators......................................................................................................... Data entry operators ....................................................................................................... Order c le rk s ...................................................................................................................... See footnotes at end of tabie. 142 7.7 7.7 5.8 3.8 5.6 3.8 5.6 21.95 7.18 1.22 .88 .56 4.06 .59 .85 .62 .90 .45 .65 6.65 65.6 64.7 65.1 7.61 5.6 .98 7.8 7.7 7.8 .91 63.3 4.2 1.2 1.4 5.7 1.7 1.3 1.6 11.14 .74 .21 .24 1.01 .29 .23 .28 86.3 5.4 1.3 2.1 8.7 2.5 1.0 2.4 85.1 5.3 1.3 2.0 8.6 2.5 1.0 2.4 85.7 5.3 1.3 2.0 8.7 2.5 1.0 2.4 10.02 .62 .15 .24 1.01 .29 .12 .28 4.8 35.0 5.1 7.3 5.4 7.8 3.8 E-1. Employment In ®@teet®d Industries and ©eeupatfons, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low E lectro nic c om pone nts Moderate High and accessories— C ontinued Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ................................................ ...................................... Personnel c le rk s ............................................................................................................... Production c le rk s .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving c le rk s ......................................................................................... Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ........ ............................................................. 1.3 1.3 6.3 12.6 3.0 3.3 2.6 4.5 0.23 .23 1.10 2.22 .53 .58 .46 .80 2.0 2.0 9.5 16.1 3.6 5.0 3.3 5.4 2.0 1.9 9.4 15.9 3.5 4.9 3.3 5.3 2.0 1.9 9.4 16.0 3.5 5.0 3.3 5.3 0.24 .23 1.10 1.87 .41 .58 .39 .62 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Electricians......................................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................ M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................. Etchers and engravers..................................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ In sp e cto rs.......................................................................................................................... Testers ............................................................................................................................... 80.8 1.7 4.6 3.6 4.2 3.7 2.3 14.7 19.4 12.1 14.20 .30 .81 .64 .74 .66 .41 2.59 3.42 2.13 113.9 2.6 7.0 5.5 6.4 4.9 3.5 22.4 21.6 18.4 112.3 2.5 6.9 5.5 6.3 4.8 3.5 22.1 21.3 18.2 113.1 2.5 7.0 5.5 6.3 4.9 3.5 22.2 21.5 18.3 13.22 .30 .82 .64 .74 .57 .41 2.60 2.51 2.14 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Assembler o ccu pation s...... ................................................................. ,............................ Coil fin is h e rs ...................................................................................................................... Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................. Electrical and electronic a sse m blers............................................................................. Machine assem blers......................................................................................................... Wirers, electronic ........................................................................ ...................................... E lectroplators...................................................................................................................... Machine tool operators, com binatio n.............................................................................. Machine tool operators, numerical c o n tro l..................................................................... Welders and fla m e cu tte rs................................................................................................. Packing and inspecting o p e ra tive s.................................................................................. Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec................................................ Coil w inde rs............................................. ........................................................................... 224.8 133.6 6.9 8.6 76.3 3.9 6.8 4.2 3.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 6.7 8.6 39.52 23.48 1.21 1.51 13.41 .69 1.19 .73 ,56 .40 .41 .40 1.17 1.52 320.3 190.8 10.4 12.0 108.2 6.0 10.3 3.1 4.8 3.4 3.6 3.4 8.8 7.9 315.8 188.1 10.3 11.8 106.6 5.9 10.1 3.1 4.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 8.7 7.8 317.9 189.3 10.3 11.9 107.3 5.9 10.2 3.1 4.8 3.4 3.5 3.4 8.8 7.8 37.16 22.13 1.21 1.39 12.55 .69 1.19 .36 .56 .40 .41 .40 1.02 .91 Service w orke rs..... ............................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 7.4 4.4 1.30 .78 9.2 4.7 9.1 4.7 9.1 4.7 1.07 .55 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... 41.6 7.31 69.6 68.6 69.1 8.07 Total, ail occupations................................................................................................... 690.0 100.00 845.8 859.1 870.5 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers ................................................................... Industrial engineers .......................................................................................................... Mechanical e n g in e e rs ...................................................................................................... D rafters............................................................................................................................... Mechanical engineering technicians .............................................................................. Computer program m ers................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ D esigners........................................................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................ Personnel and labor relations specialists...................................................................... Purchasing agents an d/or b u y e rs ..................... ............................................................ 60.4 4.8 3.6 2.5 4.0 1.6 1.6 2.8 4.9 2.6 2.5 8.75 .69 .52 .37 .58 .23 .23 .41 .71 .38 .36 102.6 5.9 5.4 2.1 8.5 3.4 3.4 4.5 6.0 3.2 3.1 104.3 6.0 5.5 2.1 8.7 3.5 3.5 4.6 6.1 3.3 3.1 105.6 6.1 5.6 2.1 8.8 3.5 3.5 4.6 6.2 3.3 3.2 12.14 .70 .64 .25 1.01 .40 .40 .53 .71 .38 .36 Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................. 27.6 3.99 41.4 42.1 42.6 4.90 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... 4.3 .62 4.9 4.9 5.0 .58 M o to r vehicles and equipm ent See footnotes at end of table. 143 E-1. E m ploym ent in seie c te d in dustries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives-—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High [Motor vehicles and e q u ip m e n t-c o n tin u e d Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Production clerks .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... Shipping and receiving clerks ......................................................................................... Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 47.0 2.4 1.4 7.2 4.3 6.2 4.4 5.0 6.81 .35 .20 1.05 .63 .91 .64 .73 57.4 3.0 1.7 8.9 5.4 7.7 5.1 5.7 58.3 3.0 1.7 9.1 5.4 7.8 5.2 5.8 59.1 3.1 1.7 9.2 5.5 7.9 5.2 5.9 6.79 .35 .20 1.06 .63 .91 .60 .67 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Eiectricians......................................................................................................................... Plumbers and pip e fitte rs.................................................................................................. Automotive m echanics..................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................ Millwrights .......................................................................................................................... M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Machine tool setters, m etalworking................................................................................ Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s ................................................................................ Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ in s p e c to rs .......................................................................................................................... Testers ............................................................................................................................... 153.1 9.1 5.3 4.4 10.8 2.6 7.0 2.4 10.5 4.6 10.5 28.9 33.9 2.8 22.19 1.32 .77 .64 1.57 .37 1.01 .35 1.53 .67 1.52 4.19 4.91 .40 195.0 11.2 6.5 5.4 21.3 3.2 9.5 2.9 10.5 5.7 13.0 35.7 41.8 3.4 198.1 11.4 6.6 5.5 21.6 3.2 9.7 3.0 10.7 5.8 13.2 36.2 42.5 3.5 200.7 11.6 6.7 5.6 21.9 3.3 9.8 3.0 10.8 5.9 13.3 36.7 43.1 3.5 23.06 1.33 .77 .64 2.52 .37 1.13 .35 1.25 .67 1.53 4.22 4.95 .41 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Assembler occupations ..................................................................................................... Machine assem blers......................................................................................................... All other assem blers......................................................................................................... Machine tool operators...................................................................................................... Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs .................................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l....................................................... Lathe machine operators, m e ta l..................................................................................... Milling/planing machine o p e ra to rs ................................................................................. Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................. Machine tool operators, tool ro o m ............................................................. ................... Punch press operators, m e ta l......................................................................................... Power brake, bending machine operators, m e ta l........................................................ Production pa ckagers........................................................................................................ Painters, production ........................................................................................................... C hauffeurs........................................................................................................................... Industrial truck operators................................................................................................... Truck drivers ....................................................................................................................... Filers, grinders, buffers, and ch ip p e rs............................................................................. 318.7 95.3 21.9 71.1 66.1 11.7 7.9 7.5 2.2 14.5 4.5 13.2 2.5 1.9 10.9 2.3 16.3 3.2 6.7 46.19 13.81 3.17 10.30 9.59 1.69 1.15 1.09 .32 2.10 .65 1.92 .36 .28 1.57 .33 2.36 .46 .97 355.3 97.0 20.4 73.8 72.9 14.4 6.3 9.2 2.7 15.3 5.6 13.6 3.1 2.4 8.5 2.8 17.0 3.9 8.3 360.8 98.5 20.8 74.9 74.0 14.6 6.4 9.4 2.8 15.6 5.7 13.8 3.2 2.4 8.7 2.9 17.3 4.0 8.4 365.7 99.9 21.0 75.9 75.0 14.8 6.5 9.5 2.8 15.8 5.7 14.0 3.2 2.4 8.8 2.9 17.5 4.1 8.5 42.00 11.47 2.42 8.72 8.62 1.70 .75 1.09 .32 1.81 .66 1.61 .37 .28 1.01 .33 2.01 .47 .98 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 20.8 14.7 3.01 2.14 23.7 16.2 24.0 16.5 24.4 16.7 2.80 1.92 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Conveyor operators and te n d e rs ................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 58.2 3.7 2.3 8.43 .54 .34 65.5 4.6 2.9 66.5 4.7 2.9 67.4 4.8 3.0 7.74 .55 .34 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 611.8 100.00 741.6 692.1 687.9 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Aerc-astronautic engineers.............................................................................................. Electrical e n g in e e rs.......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers .......................................................................................................... 158.7 21.6 8.2 10.6 25.94 3.53 1.34 1.73 222.4 32.3 10.0 14.8 207.5 30.1 9.3 13.8 206.3 29.9 9.2 13.8 29.99 4.35 1.34 2.00 A irc ra ft and parts See footnotes at end of table. 144 E-1. Employment in selected indy ©tries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Moderate Low High A irc ra ft and parts—C ontinued Mechanical engineers ..................................................................................................... D rafters.............................................................................................................................. Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. Mechanical engineering technicians ............................................................................. Computer program m ers.................................................................................................. Computer systems analysts ........................................................................................... Accountants and a u ditors............................................................................................... Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs ................................................................................. 9.2 5.5 6.4 3.2 2.3 3.2 6.3 3.3 6.3 1.50 .89 1.05 .52 .37 .53 1.02 .53 1.03 12.8 4.4 8.9 4.4 3.7 6.3 8.2 3.9 7.6 12.0 4.1 8.3 4.2 3.5 5.9 7.6 3.7 7.1 11.9 4.1 8.3 4.1 3.4 5.9 7.6 3.7 7.1 1.73 .59 1.20 .60 .50 .86 1.10 .53 1.03 Managers, officials, and proprietors................................................................................. 47.5 7.77 68.4 63.8 63.5 9.23 Sales w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................................... 2.3 .38 2.6 2.4 2.4 .35 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... Production c le rk s ............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 81.9 9.0 14.5 9.0 3.1 10.9 13.38 1.47 2.36 1.47 .51 1.78 96.3 10.9 17.5 11.5 3.8 12.7 89.9 10.2 16.4 10.8 3.6 11.8 89.3 10.1 16.3 10.7 3.5 11.7 12.99 1.47 2.36 1.56 .51 1.71 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Electricians......................................................................................................................... Aircraft m e chanics............................................................................................................ Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Machine tool setters, m etalworking............................................................................... Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s............................................................................... Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors....................................................................................... 132.5 4.5 22.4 4.3 7.9 2.8 6.5 11.8 18.7 21.66 .74 3.66 .71 1.28 .45 1.06 1.93 3.05 153.7 5.5 26.1 5.2 7.4 3.3 7.9 14.3 18.9 143.4 5.1 24.3 4.9 6.9 3.1 7.3 13.4 17.6 142.5 5.1 24.2 4.9 6.9 3.1 7.3 13.3 17.5 20.72 .74 3.52 .71 1.00 .45 1.06 1.93 2.54 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Assembler occupations ..................................................................................................... Aircraft structure assemblers ......................................................................................... Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................ Electrical and electronic assemblers ............................................................................ Machine assem blers........................................................................................................ All other assem blers........................................................................................................ Machine tool operators...................................................................................................... Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs .................................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal ....................................................... Lathe machine operators, m e ta l.................................................................................... Milling/planing machine operators ................................................................................ Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................ Machine tool operators, numerical c o n tro l................................................................... Machine tool operators, tool ro o m ................................................................................ Punch press operators, m e ta l........................................................................................ Power brake, bending machine operators, m e ta l........................................................ Welders and flamecutters ................................................................................................ Painters, production .......................................................................................................... Filers, grinders, buffers, and ch ip p e rs ............................................................................ Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec............................................... Miscellaneous operatives, nec, durable g o o d s ............................................................. R iveters................................................................................................................................ 168.1 57.8 30.2 3.5 8.8 6.6 8.7 58.9 7.8 7.1 10.9 9.5 6.7 7.3 4.4 2.2 2.3 5.1 5.4 5.5 3.1 4.5 2.9 27.48 9.45 4.93 .57 1.44 1.08 1.43 9.63 1.27 1.17 1.78 1.55 1.10 1.20 .72 .36 .38 .83 .88 .91 .50 .74 .47 178.3 54.2 24.5 4.2 10.7 5.9 8.9 60.1 9.5 5.7 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.9 5.4 2.7 2.8 6.1 6.5 6.7 3.7 5.5 3.5 166.4 50.6 22.8 3.9 10.0 5.5 8.3 56.1 8.8 5.3 7.6 7.6 7.6 8.3 5.0 2.5 2.6 5.7 6.1 6.3 3.5 5.1 3.2 165.4 50.3 22.7 3.9 9.9 5.5 8.3 55.7 8.8 5.3 7.6 7.6 7.6 8.2 5.0 2.5 2.6 5.7 6.0 6.2 3.4 5.1 3.2 24.04 7.31 3.30 .57 1.44 .80 1.20 8.10 1.27 .77 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.20 .72 .36 .38 .83 .88 .91 .50 .74 .47 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians.......................................................................................................... 9.7 5.0 1.58 .82 11.7 6.1 10.9 5.7 10.8 5.6 1.58 .82 Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................ 11.0 1.80 8.2 7.7 7.6 1.11 See footnotes at end of table. 145 E-1. Employment in seSeeted industries and occupations, 19S2 and projected 1985 aiternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High N ondurable g o o d s m anufacturing Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 7,735.9 100.00 8,529.0 8,826.7 9,002.5 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Chemical en ginee rs............................ ............................................................................. Mechanical engineers ...................................................................................................... Chemists ............................................................................................................................ Computer programmers ................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ Reporters and correspondents ....................................................................................... Writers and editors ........................................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................ Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs .................................................................................. 533.2 26.6 23.6 45.8 15.0 15.0 38.4 44.9 45.5 18.6 23.4 6.89 .34 .31 .59 .19 .19 .50 .58 .59 .24 .30 638.4 36.1 25.9 52.9 17.8 25.4 48.8 56.8 51.4 20.6 25.9 658.9 37.1 26.8 54.6 18.4 26.1 50.5 58.6 53.3 21.3 26.8 673.7 38.1 27.6 55.9 18.8 26.7 51.4 59.6 54.7 21.9 27.5 7.46 .42 .30 .62 .21 .30 .57 .66 .60 .24 .30 Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................. 517.4 6.69 634.9 659.9 674.8 7.48 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 253.8 29.2 3.28 .38 271.2 30.3 282.3 31.7 288.0 32.3 3.20 .36 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... Clerical supervisors.............. ............................................................................................ General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Computer operators.......................................................................................................... Data entry operators ........................................................................................................ Order c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ....................................................................................... Production clerks .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving c le rk s ......................................................................................... Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 968.4 61.3 43.3 31.6 115.6 16.9 22.2 35.6 26.0 33.1 123.6 53.7 65.2 84.7 42.4 12.52 .79 .56 .41 1.49 .22 .29 .46 .34 .43 1.60 .69 .84 1.09 .55 1,104.8 67.0 45.2 35.8 137.6 18.8 19.4 40.3 28.4 37.4 158.3 60.8 69.7 95.6 45.2 1,145.1 69.5 47.0 38.0 142.6 19.5 20.0 41.9 29.3 38.8 164.1 63.1 72.6 99.1 46.7 1,168.2 71.1 47.8 38.6 145.4 20.0 20.4 42.8 29.7 39.8 167.9 64.5 74.1 100.5 47.6 12.97 .79 .53 .43 1.62 .22 .23 .47 .33 .44 1.86 .72 .82 1.12 .53 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Electricians......................................................................................................................... Plumbers and pip e fitte rs.................................................................................................. Automotive m e chanics..................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................ Millwrights .......................................................................................................................... M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Bookbinders, m achine...................................................................................................... Typesetters and com positors.......................................................................................... Camera operators, p rin tin g .............................................................................................. Strippers, p rin tin g .............................................................................................................. Letter press operators...................................................................................................... Offset lithographic press op erators................................................................................ Press operators and plate p rin ters................................................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ Inspectors .......................................................................................................................... Testers ............................................................................................................................... 1,308.1 39.0 25.8 18.4 15.1 96.2 86.2 19.3 38.9 23.3 79.8 21.2 23.4 31.9 80.9 15.8 243.4 109.6 33.3 16.91 .50 .33 .24 .19 1.24 1.11 .25 .50 .30 1.03 .27 .30 .41 1.05 .20 3.15 1.42 .43 1,446.9 42.3 27.4 17.6 16.4 105.8 97.2 23.0 43.0 26.4 65.0 27.3 31.2 32.4 98.9 15.4 278.0 132.7 36.0 1,503.9 43 6 28.1 18.3 16.8 109.7 101.0 23.5 44.8 27.9 67.9 28.8 33.0 34.1 104.8 16.0 287.6 137.3 37.0 1,541.7 45 0 28.8 18.8 17.3 113.3 103.9 24.3 46.2 28.5 69.3 29.3 33.7 34.8 107.0 16.8 294.6 140.0 38.2 17.04 49 .32 .21 .19 1.24 1.14 .27 .51 .32 .77 .33 .37 .39 1.19 .18 3.26 1.56 .42 O peratives............................................................................................................................. A ssem blers........................................................................................................................ Bindeny workers, assem bly.............................................................................................. Pressers, hand .................................................................................................................. Pressers, m a c h in e ............................................................................................................ 3,293.2 51.5 30.8 21.2 20.9 42.57 .67 .40 .27 .27 3,525.7 59.5 28.9 26.0 25.5 3,639.1 63.8 30.5 26.2 25.7 3,693.2 65.8 31.2 25.6 25.1 41.23 .72 .35 .30 .29 Instrum ent re p a ire rs ................................................................................................................... See footnotes at end of table. 146 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1995 alternatives 1982 Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High N ondurable go ods m anufacturing—C ontinued Meat cutters and b u tch e rs............................................................................................... Production p a ckagers....................................................................................................... Sewers and s titc h e rs ......................................................................................................... Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, ga rm ent........................................... Sewing machine operators, special equipment, garm ent........................................... Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, nongarm ent.................................... Sewing machine operators, special equipment, nongarm ent.................................... All other sewers and stitchers ....................................................................................... Textile op erative s............................................................................................................... Creelers, y a r n .................................................................................................................... D offe rs................................................................................................................................ Folders, hand .................................................................................................................... Knitting machine operators............................................................................................. Spinners, fra m e ................................................................................................................. Twister tenders.................................................................................................................. W e a v e rs ............................................................................................................................. Yarn w inders...................................................................................................................... Transport equipment operatives...................................................................................... Industrial truck op e ra to rs................................................................................................. Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... All other operatives............................................................................................................ Cutters, m a chine............................................................................................................... Die cutters and clicking machine operators.............................. ................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, meat and dairy products................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food products...................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper and allied products................................. Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied products ......................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and plastic products.............................. Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec.............................................. Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing .............................................. Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable g o o d s ...................................................... Mixing op eratives........... .................................................................................................. Shoemaking machine o p e ra to rs..................................................................................... 54.6 321.0 717.4 510.1 75.1 88.1 28.5 15.6 308.7 13.5 18.4 23.4 19.5 24.4 13.6 27.9 15.8 322.9 100.9 141.8 77.4 1,341.1 22.9 18.8 42.4 51.8 91.9 142.6 160.6 47.0 18.2 209.2 30.3 51.5 0.71 4.15 9.27 6.59 .97 1.14 .37 .20 3.99 .17 .24 .30 .25 .32 .18 .36 .20 4.17 1.30 1.83 1.00 17.34 .30 .24 .55 .67 1.19 1.84 2.08 .61 .24 2.70 .39 .67 59.5 339.8 763.1 532.6 80.7 102.2 31.8 15.8 340.4 16.6 19.8 26.9 21.2 22.7 17.4 28.0 19.0 324.9 109.0 134.3 78.6 1,447.3 26.5 18.0 38.7 48.7 96.9 167.8 205.1 55.5 15.5 218.5 29.5 34.3 60.3 353.1 773.6 538.5 81.7 104.7 32.6 16.1 346.4 16.9 20.1 27.5 22.2 23.0 17.6 28.3 19.2 338.7 113.0 140.8 81.7 1,505.5 27.4 18.8 39.9 50.4 100.0 173.0 220.3 58.7 15.9 225.0 30.6 36.0 61.5 362.1 759.3 525.9 80.1 104.3 32.9 16.2 354.0 17.5 20.7 27.5 22.6 23.4 18.2 28.9 19.7 348.1 116.9 144.1 84.0 1,543.9 28.1 18.8 41.0 51.8 104.8 178.4 228.8 60.1 16.1 228.2 31.3 34.1 0.68 4.00 8.76 6.10 .93 1.19 .37 .18 3.93 .19 .23 .31 .25 .26 .20 .32 .22 3.84 1.28 1.60 .93 17.06 .31 .21 .45 .57 1.13 1.96 2.50 .66 .18 2.55 .35 .41 Service w orkers.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... G ua rds................................................................................................................................ 156.5 103.6 23.4 2.02 1.34 .30 166.3 108.4 25.4 171.9 112.3 26.2 175.9 114.8 26.9 1.95 1.27 .30 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Cannery w o rke rs............................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................ 705.3 55.5 36.6 50.4 9.12 .72 .47 .65 740.8 67.1 38.9 56.7 765.6 68.4 40.2 58.9 786.9 70.6 41.5 60.1 8.67 .77 .46 .67 Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 424.8 100.00 485.9 503.8 512.6 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Computer programmers .................................................................................................. Commercial and graphic artists and designers ........................................................... Photographers.................................................................................................................. Writers and editors .......................................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs............................................................................................... 76.5 1.2 3.7 4.7 23.9 1.1 18.01 .28 .86 1.11 5.63 .26 91.4 1.3 4.1 4.8 27.9 1.2 94.8 1.4 4.3 4.9 29.0 1.3 96.5 1.4 4.4 5.0 29.5 1.3 18.82 .27 .85 .98 5.75 .26 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 39.5 9.31 56.6 58.7 59.7 11.65 Sales w o rke rs...................................................................................................................... 50.1 11.80 60.3 62.6 63.7 12.42 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... 91.8 21.62 104.9 108.8 110.7 21.60 Newspapers See footnotes at end of table. 147 s=“1. EmpSoymsrs^ in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Newspapers—Continued Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ Bookkeeoers, h a n d .......................................................................................................... Circulation c le rk s .............................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors.......................................................................................................... Customer service representatives, printing and publishing........................................ Dispatchers, vehicle service or work ............................................................................ File cle rk s .......................................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... M e ssengers....................................................................................................................... Computer operators......................................................................................................... Data entry operators ....................................................................................................... Order c le rk s ...................................................................................................................... Production clerks ............................................................................................................. P roofreaders..................................................................................................................... S ecretaries........................................................................................................................ T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping packers ............................................................................................................. Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................ Telephone ad takers, new spapers................................................................................ Telephone o p e ra to rs ....................................................................................................... Switchboard operators................................................................................................... 3.3 6.9 7.7 2.2 2.0 1.0 1.5 8.2 2.6 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.8 4.5 7.2 10.8 1.1 1.1 9.1 1.3 1.3 0.77 1.62 1.82 .51 .47 .24 .35 1.93 .62 .30 .28 .39 .43 1.07 1.70 2.55 .25 .26 2.13 .31 .31 3.7 6.8 8.7 2.5 2.3 1.2 1.2 9.2 3.0 1.4 .5 1.9 2.0 5.1 9.6 12.2 1.2 1.2 12.2 1.5 1.5 3.8 7.1 9.0 2.5 2.3 1.2 1.3 9.6 3.1 1.5 .5 2.0 2.1 5.3 9.9 12.7 1.3 1.3 12.6 1.6 1.6 3.9 7.2 9.2 2.6 2.4 1.2 1.3 9.7 3.2 1.5 .5 2.0 2.2 5.4 10.1 12.9 1.3 1.3 12.8 1.6 1.6 0.76 1.40 1.79 .51 .47 .24 .25 1.90 .62 .29 .10 .39 .42 1.05 1.97 2.51 .25 .25 2.50 .31 .31 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Printing trades craft w orke rs............................................................................................ Typesetters and com positors......................................................................................... Lithographers and photoengravers................................................................................ Camera operators, printing ........................................................................................... Photoengravers................................................................................................................ Platemakers .................................................................................................................... Strippers, printing ........................................................................................................... Printing press operators.................................................................................................. Letter press o p erators................................................................................................... Offset lithographic press operators ............................................................................. All other press and plate printers ................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors......................................................................................... 88.3 74.3 38.1 10.8 4.7 2.5 2.3 1.3 23.9 9.6 12.3 2.1 7.4 20.78 17.48 8.97 2.55 1.10 .60 .54 .31 5.64 2.25 2.89 .50 1.75 78.1 61.7 25.3 13.9 7.2 1.9 3.3 1.5 20.9 10.8 7.7 2.4 9.4 81.0 64.0 26.3 14.4 7.5 2.0 3.5 1.6 21.6 11.2 8.0 2.5 9.7 82.4 65.1 26.7 14.7 7.6 2.0 3.5 1.6 22.0 11.4 8.1 2.5 9.9 16.08 12.69 5.21 2.86 1.48 .39 .69 .31 4.29 2.22 1.58 .49 1.93 O peratives............................................................................................................................ Bindery workers, assem bly............................................................................................. D elivery and route w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................... Truck drive rs..................................................................................................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing .............................................. Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable g o o d s ..................................................... 56.6 1.3 21.3 3.8 1.0 16.5 13.32 .29 5.02 .90 .25 3.89 68.7 1.4 27.0 4.3 1.2 20.6 71.2 1.5 28.0 4.5 1.2 21.3 72.4 1.5 28.4 4.6 1.2 21.7 14.13 .29 5.55 .89 .24 4.23 Service w orke rs................................................................................................................... Building custodians.......................................................................................................... G ua rds............................................................................................................................... 9.6 6.7 1.2 2.25 1.57 .29 10.8 7.5 1.4 11.2 7.8 1.4 11.4 7.9 1.4 2.22 1.55 .28 Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................ 12.4 2.92 14.9 15.5 15.8 3.07 Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 199.8 100.00 274.6 279.8 282.5 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Chemical en ginee rs......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers ......................................................................................................... Bioioaical s c ie n tis ts ......................................................................................................... Chemists .................................................................................. ......................................... Engineering and science technicians............................................................................ P harm acists...................................................................................................................... 49.3 1.4 1.2 5.0 8.2 12.8 2.9 24.65 .69 .61 2.51 4.10 6.41 1.43 70.7 1.9 1.7 8.1 11.2 17.5 3.8 72.0 1.9 1.7 8.2 11.5 17.8 3.9 72.7 1.9 1.7 8.3 11.6 18.0 4.0 25.74 :69 .61 2.94 4.10 6.37 1.40 Drugs See footnotes at end of table. 148 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High D rugs— C ontinued Computer program m ers......... ......................................................................................... ComDuter systems analysts ............................................................................................ Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... 2.8 1.3 0.55 .90 1.38 .64 1.5 4.5 3.8 1.8 1.5 4.6 3.9 1.8 1.5 4.6 3.9 1.8 0.55 1.64 1.38 Managers, officials, and proprietors................................................................................. 22.0 11.02 34.2 34.8 35.2 12.45 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... 5.7 2.83 7.2 7.3 7.4 2.60 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Order c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... Production c le rk s .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................ Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 36.7 2.4 1.5 3.8 1.3 1.0 10.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.4 18.37 1.19 .75 1.90 .66 .52 5.15 .72 .81 .95 .70 52.5 2.8 2.9 4.5 1.8 1.4 16.0 2.0 2.2 2.6 1.4 53.4 2.8 3.0 4.6 1.9 1.5 16.3 2.0 2.3 2.6 1.5 53.9 2.S 3.0 4.8 1.9 1.5 16.4 2.0 2.3 2.7 1.5 19.10 1.01 1.06 1.64 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ inspectors .......................................................................................................................... 24.0 2.3 1.7 5.7 3.6 11.99 1.16 .83 2.85 1.81 32.8 3.2 2.3 7.8 5.0 33.4 3.2 2.3 8.0 5.1 33.7 3.3 2.4 8.0 11.94 1.16 .83 2.85 1.81 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Production packagers....................................................................................................... Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................. Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied p ro d u c ts ......................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonm anufacturing.............................................. 43.5 16.8 1.6 12.9 1.2 21.76 8.43 .81 6.45 .58 55.8 23.2 2.2 17.7 1.6 56.9 23.6 2.3 18.1 1.6 57.4 23.8 2.3 18.2 1.6 20.32 8.43 .81 6.46 .58 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... G ua rds................................................................................................................................ 6.9 4.0 1.2 3.47 2.00 .61 8.5 4.5 1.7 8.7 4.6 1.7 8.7 4.6 1.7 3.10 1.64 .61 Laborers, except farm ......................................................................................................... Animal caretake rs............................................................................................................. 11.8 1.1 5.91 .56 13.1 1.5 13.3 1.6 13.4 1.6 4.76 1.1 1.8 5.1 .64 .66 .52 5.82 .72 .81 .95 .52 .56 industrial organic chem icals 174.3 100.00 218.2 222.9 224.1 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers ................................................................... Chemical en ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers .......................................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ...................................................................................................... Chemists ............................................................................................................................ Mechanical engineering technicians ............................................................................. Computer systems analysts ........................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................ Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 41.6 6.3 1.1 2.4 5.8 1.2 1.0 2.2 23.84 3.60 .62 1.40 3.30 .71 .60 1.25 55.8 8.2 1.3 3.0 7.2 2.2 2.2 2.7 57.0 8.4 1.4 3.1 7.4 2.2 2.2 2.8 57.3 8.4 1.4 3.1 7.4 2.2 2.2 2.8 25.56 3.76 .62 1.38 3.30 .99 .99 1.24 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 16.7 9.56 22.7 23.2 23.3 10.41 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... 2.4 1.39 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.27 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... 21.4 2.0 1.9 12.31 1.17 1.12 29.2 2.5 5.1 29.8 2.6 5.3 30.0 2.6 5.3 13.37 1.16 2.36 See footnotes at end of table. 149 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High in du strial o rganic chem icals—Continued S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... S tenographers................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 5.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 3.04 .64 .75 .70 6.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 6.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 6.8 1.4 1.7 1.5 3.02 .63 .74 .69 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Electricians......................................................................................................................... Plumbers and p ipe fitters.................................................................................................. Instrument repairers.......................................................................................................... Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... M illw righ ts.......................................................................................................................... M achinists............................................... .......................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ 39.4 2.4 4.2 2.6 3.4 2.8 1.6 1.5 10.1 22.60 1.39 2.40 1.50 1.94 1.59 .94 .84 5.81 47.8 3.0 5.6 3.2 4.2 3.4 2.0 1.8 11.4 48.8 3.1 5.7 3.3 4.3 3.5 2.1 1.8 11.7 49.1 3.1 5.8 3.3 4.3 3.5 2.1 1.9 11.8 21.90 1.38 2.57 1.49 1.93 1.57 .94 .83 5.25 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................ Production packagers....................................................................................................... Industrial truck o p e ra to rs................................................................................................ Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied p ro d u c ts ......................... 42.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 33.0 24.48 .65 .68 .59 18.94 49.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 38.5 50.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 39.4 50.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 39.6 22.61 .64 .68 .59 17.66 Service w orke rs......................... .......................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 2.8 1.4 1.63 .82 3.5 1.8 3.6 1.8 3.6 1.8 1.61 .81 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Loaders, tank cars and tru c k s ....................................................................................... 7.3 1.4 4.19 .83 7.2 1.8 7.3 1.8 7.3 1.8 3.28 .82 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 5,719.8 100.00 6,721.7 6,923.8 7,053.2 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Electrical e n ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. Airplane p ilo ts .................................................................................................................... Announcers ........................................................................................................................ Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ 449.3 46.4 38.5 49.2 44.0 34.7 7.86 .81 .67 .86 .77 .61 618.9 82.0 71.0 65.8 55.0 45.6 630.9 83.8 73.0 66.7 55.5 46.6 637.6 84.4 73.6 67.4 55.6 47.4 9.11 1.21 1.05 .96 .80 .67 Managers, officials, and proprietors................................................................................. Postmasters and mail superintendents......................................................................... Railroad conductors ......................................................................................................... 514.4 28.3 26.7 8.99 .49 .47 664.1 22.6 16.8 683.2 24.4 18.0 694.7 25.0 19.4 9.87 .35 .26 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Travel ag ents..................................................................................................................... 140.5 58.2 2.46 1.02 233.7 82.5 238.6 84.5 239.9 84.7 3.45 1.22 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d .......................................................................................................... Clerical supervisors........................................................................................................... Customer service representatives................................................................................. Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o r k ............................................................................ General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... Postal mail c a rrie rs .......................................................................................................... Postal service clerks ....................................................................................................... Meter readers, u tilities..................................................................................................... Reservation ag e n ts........................................................................................................... Ticket a g e n ts ..................................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 1,904.0 51.0 36.1 60.2 88.9 52.0 186.0 234.1 306.5 28.5 52.9 49.3 84.5 41.0 41.9 33.29 .89 .63 1.05 1.56 .91 3.25 4.09 5.36 50 .92 .86 1.48 .72 .73 2,038.6 56.0 40.3 77.7 120.4 63.5 232.5 208.0 233.0 35.2 54.0 47.9 107.8 43.8 44.7 2,115.9 57.5 41.2 79.9 123.8 65.1 238,8 222.7 251.8 35.6 54.9 48.9 110.1 45.0 45.8 2,148.9 58.3 41.7 80.8 124.8 66.5 242.3 227.7 257.5 36.2 55.6 49.9 111.7 45.4 46.6 30.56 .83 .59 1.15 1.79 .94 3.45 3.22 3.64 .51 .79 .71 1.59 .65 .66 T ransp orta tion, com m unications, and utilitie s See footnotes at end of table. 150 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 19SS alternatives— Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Transp orta tion, com m unications, and u tilitie s—C ontinued Central office operators .................................................................................................. Directory assistance operators ...................................................................................... 108.7 37.5 1.90 .66 84.2 41.8 86.9 43.1 87.5 43.4 1.26 .62 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Aircraft m e chanics........................................................................................................... Automotive m echanics.................................................................................................... Communications equipment mechanics ....................................................................... Central office re paire rs.................................................................................................. Diesel m echanics............................................................................................................. Cable sp lice rs................................................................................................................... Line installers, repairers.................................................................................................. Railroad car repairers...................................................................................................... Installers, repairers, section m aintainers...................................................................... Station installers............................................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors....................................................................................... 1,080.8 52.7 42.8 91.8 50.2 49.1 41.8 90.0 24.2 74.0 58.9 147.6 18.90 .92 .75 1.60 .88 .86 .73 1.57 .42 1.29 1.03 2.58 1,243.8 65.3 50.8 91.8 47.4 60.1 52.1 108.6 18.4 94.9 69.3 180.9 1,278.8 66.1 52.2 94.8 48.9 61.7 53.6 110.9 19.7 98.0 71.5 186.2 1,302.1 66.8 53.7 95.4 49.2 63.3 54.0 111.8 21.2 98.6 72.0 189.8 18.47 .96 .75 1.37 .71 .89 .77 1.60 .28 1.42 1.03 2.69 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Busdrivers, local and in te rc ity ........................................................................................ Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................ Railroad brake o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................ Sailors and deckhands..................................................................................................... Taxi drivers ........................................................................................................................ Delivery and route w orkers............................................................................................. Truck driv e rs ...................................................................................................................... 1,043.6 146.5 31.3 56.6 27.0 31.2 74.4 575.9 18.24 2.56 .55 .99 .47 .55 1.30 10.07 1,245.6 158.8 33.6 48.6 26.7 19.2 96.9 750.7 1,280.3 165.5 34.6 49.9 28.0 20.0 98.9 766.7 1,318.3 177.2 35.2 53.7 28.3 21.5 100.6 781.3 18.49 2.39 .50 .72 .40 .29 1.43 11.07 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... Flight a tte n d a n ts ............................................................................................................... 153.6 44.5 52.9 2.69 .78 .92 175.7 46.2 67.3 179.8 47.5 68.2 182.8 48.3 68.9 2.60 .69 .99 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. Line service attenda nts................................................................................................... 433.5 33.7 30.1 7.58 .59 .53 501.2 34.6 40.9 516.3 35.8 41.4 528.8 37.1 41.8 7.46 .52 .60 Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 1,120.8 100.00 1,459.1 1,489.7 1,516.2 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Accountants and au d ito rs............................................................................................... Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... 9.7 5.7 1.4 .87 .51 .12 12.7 7.4 1.8 12.9 7.6 1.8 13.2 7.7 1.9 .87 .51 .12 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 73.2 6.53 100.4 102.5 104.3 6.88 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Crating and moving estimators ...................................................................................... 9.8 5.7 .88 .51 12.8 7.4 13.0 7.5 13.3 7.7 .87 .51 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Adjustment clerks ............................................................................................................ Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ Bookkeepers, hand .......................................................................................................... Cashiers ............................................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors.......................................................................................................... Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o r k ............................................................................ File c le rk s .......................................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... Bookkeeping, billing machine operators....................................................................... Computer operators......................................................................................................... Data entry operators ....................................................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ...................................................................................... Rate clerks, fre ig h t.......................................................................................................... 175.1 4.0 3.5 10.9 2.0 3.4 27.0 1.9 36.6 8.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 8.2 15.62 .35 .31 .97 .18 .30 2.41 .17 3.26 .72 .12 .17 .21 .73 218.9 5.2 4.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 35.2 1.5 47.7 10.5 3.0 .4 3.1 10.7 223.5 5.3 4.1 12.5 4.6 4.5 35.9 1.5 48.7 10.7 3.0 .4 3.1 10.9 227.5 5.4 4.2 12.7 4.7 4.6 36.6 1.6 49.6 10.9 3.1 .4 3.2 11.1 15.00 .35 .27 .84 .31 .30 2.41 .10 3.27 .72 .20 .03 .21 .73 Trucking, local, long distance, and term inals1 See footnotes at end of table. 151 E-1. E m p lo ym en t in seieeted industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives=“Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Trucking, locai, long distance, and term inals1- - C ontinued S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving clerks ......................................................................................... Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ...................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................. Traffic agents .................................................................................................................... 14.9 3.7 5.1 9.4 8.8 1.1 8.8 1.33 .33 .45 .84 .78 .10 .79 17.5 3.8 5.6 11.3 9.5 1.5 11.5 17.9 3.9 5.7 11.6 9.7 1.5 11.7 18.2 4.0 5.8 11.8 9.9 1.5 12.0 1.20 .26 .39 .78 .65 .10 .79 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Automotive body repairers............................................................. ................................. Automotive m echanics...................... .............................................................................. Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................. Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... Crane, derrick, and hoist operators................................................................................ 80.7 1.2 13.4 38.4 1.3 2.3 7.20 .10 1.20 3.42 .12 .21 105.2 1.5 17.5 50.0 1.7 3.1 107.4 1.5 17.9 51.1 1.8 3.1 109.3 1.6 18.2 52.0 1.8 3.2 7.21 .10 1.20 3.43 .12 .21 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................ Industrial truck o p erators................................................................................................. Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... Tire changers and re paire rs............................................................................................ 618.3 1.1 9.2 67.1 534.8 1.4 55.17 .09 .82 5.98 47.72 .12 802.5 1.4 10.4 87.3 695.3 1.8 819.4 1.4 10.6 89.2 709.9 1.8 833.9 1.5 10.8 90.8 722.5 1.8 55.00 .10 .71 5.99 47.65 .12 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... G ua rds................................................................................................................................ 10.0 6.9 1.9 .89 .62 .17 13.0 9.0 2.5 13.3 9.2 2.5 13.5 9.4 2.5 .89 .62 .17 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... 144.0 12.85 193.6 197.7 201.2 13.27 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 1,063.8 100.00 1,306.1 1,348.7 1,357.1 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Electrical en ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Industrial e n ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ...................................................................................................... D rafters........................................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................. Computer program m ers................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... 68.6 15.9 2.4 1.6 4.5 7.3 3.3 3.5 5.5 4.9 6.45 1.50 .23 .15 .42 .69 .31 .33 .51 .46 104.7 32.8 3.9 2.0 3.7 13.7 4.1 6.6 7.7 6.0 108.2 33.8 4.1 2.1 3.8 14.2 4.3 6.8 8.0 6.2 108.8 34.1 4.1 2.1 3.8 14.3 4.3 6.8 8.0 6.3 8.02 2.51 .30 .15 .28 1.05 .32 .50 .59 .46 Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................. 100.1 9.41 133.1 137.4 138.3 10.19 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... 18.6 1.75 34.6 35.7 35.9 2.65 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... C a sh ie rs ............................................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors........................................................................................................... Collectors, bill and a c c o u n t............................................................................................. Customer service representatives................................................................................. Dispatchers, vehicle service or work ............................................................................ File c le rk s ........................................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Mail c le rk s .......................................................................................................................... Computer operators.......................................................................................................... Data entry operators ........................................................................................................ 496.4 15.9 2.7 '5.5 31.0 2.5 64.6 8.8 3.5 49.3 2.4 4.8 3.8 46.66 1.50 .25 .51 2.92 .23 6.07 .82 .33 4.64 .23 .45 .36 590.0 17.7 3.3 9.6 43.1 3.0 89.3 10.8 3.3 69.5 3.0 6.8 4.7 609.2 18.2 3.4 9.9 44.5 3.1 92.2 11.1 3.4 71.8 3.1 7.1 4.9 613.1 18.4 3.4 10.0 44.8 3.2 92.8 11.2 3.4 72.2 3.1 7.1 4.9 45.17 1.35 .25 .74 3.30 .23 6.84 .83 .25 5.32 .23 .52 .36 Teiephon® com m unication See footnotes at end of table. 152 E-1. Employment in selected industries and oeciupatioinis, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High T © le p h o n e com m unication— C o n tin u e d Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ....................................................................................... Personnel clerks ............................................................................................................... Production c le rk s .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... S tenographers................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Statistical c le rk s ................................................................................................................ Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ...................................................................... Central office o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................... Directory assistance operators ....................................................................................... 2.0 2.7 19.4 11.0 6.9 14.8 15.1 7.3 107.7 37.5 0.19 .25 1.82 1.04 .65 1.39 1.42 .69 10.12 3.52 2.5 3.3 26.8 13.2 8.6 15.3 16.6 8.0 82.8 41.7 2.6 3.4 27.7 13.6 8.8 15.8 17.2 8.3 85.5 43.1 2.6 3.4 27.9 13.7 8.9 15.9 17.3 8.3 86.0 43.4 0.19 .25 2.05 1.01 .65 1.17 1.27 .61 6.34 3.19 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Automotive m echanics..................................................................................................... Central office repairers..................................................................................................... Frame w ire rs ...................................................................................................................... Trouble locators, test d e s k .............................................................................................. Cable installers.................................................................................................................. Cable repairers.................................................................................................................. Cable splic e rs .................................................................................................................... Line installers, re paire rs................................................................................................... Radio and television service technicians ...................................................................... Installers, repairers, section maintainers ....................................................................... Station installers................................................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ Stationary engineers......................................................................................................... 361.3 3.4 50.1 13.1 18.9 4.1 9.5 36.0 19.1 4.4 69.6 58.2 49.0 2.1 33.97 .32 4.71 1.23 1.78 .39 .90 3.38 1.79 .42 6.54 5.47 4.61 .19 423.5 4.1 47.2 16.1 15.7 5.1 11.8 44.3 21.6 5.5 85.0 67.7 68.2 1.8 437.4 4.3 48.7 16.6 16.2 5.2 12.1 45.8 22.3 5.6 87.8 69.9 70.4 1.8 440.1 4.3 49.0 16.7 16.3 5.3 12.2 46.1 22.4 5.7 88.3 70.3 70.9 1.8 32.43 .32 3.61 1.23 1.20 .39 .90 3.39 1.65 .42 6.51 5.18 5.22 .14 O peratives............................................................................................................................. 4.0 .37 4.9 5.1 5.1 .38 Service w orke rs ............ ....................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 12.6 9.8 1.18 .92 12.6 9.1 13.0 9.4 13.1 9.5 .96 .70 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... 2.2 .21 2.7 2.8 2.8 .21 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 216.4 100.00 352.0 354.6 355.9 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Electrical e n ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Broadcast tech nicians...................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. Commercial and graphic artists and designers ........................................................... Photographers................................................................................................................... Announcers ........................................................................................................................ Broadcast news an a lysts................................................................................................. Reporters and correspondents ...................................................................................... Writers and editors ........................................................................................................... Writers, artists, entertainers, nec..................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................ 113.5 9.3 14.0 1.8 1.5 3.1 43.9 8.8 6.5 5.4 6.1 1.2 52.46 4.29 6.47 .85 .70 1.43 20.31 4.05 3.01 2.49 2.83 .55 157.9 16.5 17.4 3.0 2.5 4.7 55.0 12.0 8.5 9.6 6.7 3.5 159.1 16.6 17.6 3.0 2.5 4.7 55.4 12.1 8.6 9.7 6.8 3.6 159.6 16.7 17.6 3.0 2.5 4.7 55.6 12.1 8.6 9.7 6.8 3.6 44.85 4.69 4.96 .86 .71 1.33 15.61 3.41 2.43 2.72 1.92 1.01 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 36.8 17.02 74.2 74.8 75.0 21.08 Sales w o rke rs....................................................................................................................... 25.2 11.63 62.6 63.0 63.3 17.78 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... Bookkeeping, billing machine op erators....................................................................... Receptionists..................................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... 35.1 3.6 1.4 1.8 2.5 9.0 16.22 1.66 .63 .83 1.16 4.15 50.3 3.9 2.3 2.9 4.1 11.8 50.7 3.9 2.3 3.0 4.2 11.9 50.9 3.9 2.3 3.0 4.2 11.9 14.29 1.11 .64 .83 1.17 3.34 Radio and television broadcasting See footnotes at end of table. 153 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Radio and tele visio n broadeasting—Continued 1.5 1.0 7.1 0.69 .47 3.29 1.4 1.7 10.4 1.4 1.7 10.5 1.4 1.7 10.5 0.40 .47 2.95 1.7 .76 2.7 2.7 2.7 .77 O peratives............................................................................................................................. .4 .17 .6 .6 .6 .18 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................ .................................................................. 3.5 3.0 1.60 1.38 3.3 2.5 3.3 2.5 3.3 2.5 .93 .71 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... .3 .13 .5 .5 .5 .13 Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 20,551.0 100.00 26,046.1 26,838.0 27,191.7 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. P harm acists....................................................................................................................... D esigners........................................................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs........... .................................................................................... Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................. 777.5 91.9 82.5 67.8 101.6 223.2 3.78 .45 .40 .33 .49 1.09 1,013.4 122.9 104.3 87.7 133.2 286.8 1,045.0 125.2 109.0 91.3 137.1 297.2 1,057.9 125.6 111.3 93.0 138.6 301.8 3.89 .47 .41 .34 .51 1.11 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers ............................................................................ Sales managers, retail tr a d e ........................................................................................... Store managers................................................................................................................. W holesalers....................................................................................................................... 1,918.7 312.8 261.1 772.0 203.1 9.34 1.52 1.27 3.76 .99 2,585.0 452.9 334.6 1,018.9 256.1 2,669.9 458.5 344.4 1,064.9 260.9 2,708.3 461.1 348.0 1,087.9 261.8 9.95 1.71 1.28 3.97 .97 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, nontechnical....................... ....................................................... Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l.................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 4,460.0 583.4 1,320.3 2,495.3 21.70 2.84 6.42 12.14 5,480.6 724.3 1,651.9 3,027.8 5,685.4 743.1 1,706.7 3,155.7 5,778.8 749.4 1,729.7 3,218.3 21.18 2.77 6.36 11.76 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ B ookkeepers, hand ........................................................................................................... C a sh ie rs............................................................................................................................. General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Bookkeeping and billing op erators................................................................................ Data entry operators .............................................. ......................................................... Order c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving clerks ........................................................................................ Shipping packers ............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................ 4,250.3 162.0 391.3 1,283.2 571.9 75.0 51.0 160.9 231.2 68.9 187.2 148.5 512.5 41.9 20.68 .79 1.90 6.24 2.78 .36 .25 .78 1.12 .34 .91 .72 2.49 .20 5,374.8 184.7 439.2 1,821.2 730.7 89.0 44.9 194.8 286.5 74.9 210.2 167.6 582.7 52.7 5,559.2 190.3 453.7 1,894.1 754.1 91.2 46.2 199.7 294.3 76.9 216.3 171.4 602.5 54.1 5,640.3 192.5 460.1 1,929.9 763.6 91.9 46.6 201.3 297.1 77.5 218.5 172.5 610.9 54.6 20.71 .71 1.69 7.06 2.81 .34 .17 .74 1.10 .29 .81 .64 2.24 .20 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Automotive m e chanics.................................................................................................... Computer service technicians........................................................................................ Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................. Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... Office machine repairers................................................................................................. Bakers ............................................................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors....................................................................................... T a ilo rs ................................................................................................................................. 1,353.4 378.2 41.8 65.8 88.5 48.0 48.9 127.2 41.2 6.59 1.84 .20 .32 .43 .23 .24 .62 .20 1,836.4 563.6 75.2 80.6 109.2 83.6 59.8 161.6 57.2 1,901.6 588.0 76.6 82.5 111.7 85.3 62.3 165.9 59.7 1,929.9 599.6 76.8 83.1 112.4 85.7 63.6 167.4 61.0 7.09 2.19 .29 .31 .42 .32 .23 .62 .22 T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Switchboard operators/receptionists............................................................................ Traffic c le rk s ...................................................................................................................... Craft and related w o rk e rs ............................................................................................... W holesale and re tail trade See footnotes at end of table. 154 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1995 alternatives 1982 Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High W ho lesa le and retail tra d e — C ontinued O peratives............................................................................................................................. B agg ers.......................................................... ................................................................... Production packagers....................................................................................................... Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................. Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators........................................................................... Tire changers and re paire rs............................................................................................ 1,832.1 242.3 89.9 69.2 439.8 335.2 354.5 57.1 8.91 1.18 .44 .34 2.14 1.63 1.73 .28 2,101.7 219.4 103.0 82.8 522.5 407.7 391.6 80.1 2,177.2 229.0 106.7 84.9 537.9 419.0 412.1 83.6 2,209.9 233.7 108.4 85.5 543.8 423.0 422.1 85.3 8.11 .85 .40 .32 2.00 1.56 1.54 .31 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... Bartenders ......................................................................................................................... Butchers and meat c u tte rs .............................................................................................. Cooks, restaurant...................................... ....................................................................... Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................. Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants................................... Hosts/hostesses, restaurants, lounges, and coffee sh o p s........................................ Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................................. Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers............................................................................ Waiters and w aitresses.................................................................................................... Waiters’ assistants............................................................................................................ 4,710.0 304.4 242.3 172.9 267.1 386.6 792.7 93.8 411.9 57.0 1,364.4 194.3 22.92 1.48 1.18 .84 1.30 1.88 3.86 .46 2.00 .28 6.64 .95 6,225.3 355.5 331.6 155.3 384.7 506.7 1,072.8 126.9 586.5 76.1 1,791.6 240.2 6,321.2 365.8 335.7 161.4 389.7 513.6 1,086.2 128.5 594.6 77.2 1,815.4 243.2 6,366.5 370.6 337.7 164.3 392.0 516.8 1,092.5 129.2 598.5 77.7 1,826.7 244.6 23.55 1.36 1.25 .60 1.45 1.91 4.05 .48 2.22 .29 6.76 .91 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................ Stock clerk, sales f lo o r .................................................................................................... 1,248.9 247.0 596.9 6.08 1.20 2.90 1,429.0 283.7 681.0 1,478.6 289.9 710.8 1,500.2 291.5 725.6 5.51 1.08 2.65 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 5,293.6 100.00 6,356.2 6,474.4 6,495.3 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ................................................................... Electrical e n ginee rs.......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers .......................................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ...................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................. Computer program m ers................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................ Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................. 359.9 11.7 6.6 9.4 90.9 15.9 25.1 61.6 72.3 6.80 .22 .13 .18 1.72 .30 .47 1.16 1.37 466.9 16.0 8.0 11.3 121.5 24.9 37.7 79.5 88.8 475.5 16.3 8.2 11.5 123.7 25.4 38.4 80.9 90.4 477.1 16.3 8.2 11.5 124.1 25.4 38.5 81.2 90.7 7.34 .25 .13 .18 1.91 .39 .59 1.25 1.40 Managers, officials, and p roprie tors.................................................................................. Sales managers, retail tr a d e .................... .................................................... .................. Store m anagers................................................................................................................. W holesalers....................................................................................................................... 483.4 153.8 3.4 202.5 9.13 2.90 .06 3.82 606.7 198.0 4.2 255.3 617.9 201.7 4.3 260.1 619.9 202.3 4.3 260.9 9.54 3.11 .07 4.02 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, nontechnical...................................... ........................................ Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l........... ,........................................................................ Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 1,093.4 410.4 561.5 116.3 20.66 7.75 10.61 2.20 1,394.7 517.3 722.0 148.8 1,420.6 526.9 735.4 151.5 1,425.2 528.7 737.8 152.0 21.94 8.14 11.36 2.34 Clerical w orke rs........................................... ........................................................................ Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... Cashiers ........................ .................................................................................................... Clerical supervisors........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Bookkeeping, billing machine op erators................... .................................................... Computer operators.......................................................................................................... Data entry operators ........................................................................................................ 1,530.7 90.2 114.6 36.0 9.2 289.1 57.7 6.5 36.0 28.92 1.70 2.17 .68 .17 5.46 1.09 .12 .68 1,750.2 98.3 123.8 52.5 10.8 353.3 68.2 7.8 27.5 1,782.7 100.1 126.1 53.4 11.0 359.9 69.5 8.0 28.0 1,788.5 100.4 126.5 53.6 111 361.1 69.7 8.0 28.1 27.53 1.55 1.95 .83 .17 5.56 1.07 .12 .43 W ho lesale trad e See footnotes at end of table. 155 E-1. Employment In selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High W holesale tra d e —Continued Order c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... R eceptionists................. ................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving clerks ......................................................................................... Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................ Switchboard o p e ra to rs ..................................................................................................... W eighe rs............................................................................................................................ 120.5 18.0 153.6 50.4 115.7 127.7 219.9 29.7 6.6 12.0 2.28 .34 2.90 .95 2.19 2.41 4.15 .56 .13 .23 143.5 21.5 184.8 54.3 128.1 140.9 232.7 35.9 7.2 14.8 146.2 21.9 188.2 55.3 130.4 143.6 237.0 36.6 7.3 15.1 146.7 22.0 188.8 55.5 130.9 144.0 237.8 36.7 7.3 15.1 2.26 .34 2.91 .85 2.01 2.22 3.66 .56 .11 .23 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Automotive m echanics..................................................................................................... Computer service tech nicians......................................................................................... Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................. Engineering equipment m echanics................................................................................. Farm equipment m e chanics............................................................................................ Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... Office machine repairers.................................................................................................. M achinists.......................................................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ 547.0 78.3 41.4 55.4 38.3 15.7 72.7 43.7 8.4 90.7 10.33 1.48 .78 1.05 .72 .30 1.37 .83 .16 1.71 698.4 90.9 74.7 65.1 39.9 15.8 90.0 77.2 10.7 110.5 711.4 92.6 76.1 66.3 40.7 16.1 91.6 78.6 10.9 112.5 713.7 92.9 76.4 66.5 40.8 16.1 91.9 78.8 11.0 112.9 10.99 1.43 1.18 1.02 .63 .25 1.42 1.21 .17 1.74 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................ Production packagers....................................................................................................... Industrial truck op e ra to rs................................................................................................. Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators.......................................................................... 717.0 8.7 26.6 54.6 240.6 231.3 38.5 13.54 .16 .50 1.03 4.54 4.37 .73 828.2 9.9 29.2 63.2 279.5 271.6 46.7 843.6 10.1 29.8 64.4 284.7 276.7 47.5 846.3 10.2 29.9 64.6 285.6 277.6 47.7 13.03 .16 .46 .99 4.40 4.27 .73 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... Butchers and meat c u tte rs .............................................................................................. 88.4 52.7 23.7 1.67 1.00 .45 95.0 56.2 25.3 96.8 57.3 25.8 97.1 57.4 25.9 1.49 .88 .40 Laborers, except farm ......................................................................................................... Conveyor operators and te n d e rs .................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................ 473.7 13.7 4.8 218.3 8.95 .26 .09 4.12 516.2 16.3 5.8 249.0 525.8 16.6 6.0 253.7 527.5 16.7 6.0 254.5 8.12 .26 .09 3.92 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 413.0 100.00 584.6 595.5 597.4 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Computer programmers ................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................. 17.0 1.4 1.2 4.7 6.1 4.12 .34 .28 1.13 1.49 27.1 2.4 2.4 7.7 9.5 27.6 2.4 2.4 7.8 9.7 27.7 2.4 2.4 7.8 9.8 4.63 .40 .40 1.31 1.63 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. Sales managers, retail tr a d e .......................................................................................... W holesalers....................................................................................................................... 41.7 13.6 18.2 10.09 3.29 4.40 61.8 21.2 28.5 63.0 21.6 29.0 63.2 21.7 29.1 10.57 3.63 4.87 Sales w o rk e rs ..................................................................... ................................................. Sales representatives, nontechnical.............................................................................. Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l..................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 93.5 28.0 45.2 19.7 22.64 6.79 10.95 4.76 133.6 40.0 64.8 28.0 136.1 40.7 66.0 28.6 136.5 40.9 66.2 28.7 22.85 6.84 11.08 4.80 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. 123.8 7.0 29.97 1.70 161.8 8.1 164.8 8.2 165.4 8.2 27.68 1.38 M otor vehicles and auto parts and supplies See footnotes at end of table. 156 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High M o tor vehicles and auto parts and supplies— C ontinued Bookkeepers, h a n d .......................................................................................................... Cashiers ................................................................... ......................................................... Bookkeeping and billing op e ra to rs................................................................................ Data entry operators ....................................................................................................... S ecretaries........................................................................................................................ T y p is ts ............................................................................................................................... Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................ Shipping packers ............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists............................................................................ 10.2 3.8 5.4 4.1 8.6 2.7 11.5 7.0 23.4 1.8 2.48 .91 1.31 .99 2.09 .65 2.77 1.68 5.66 .44 12.6 6.4 6.5 2.4 11.2 2.8 17.9 8.0 26.5 2.6 12.9 6.5 6.6 2.4 11.4 2.9 18.2 8.1 27.0 2.6 12.9 6.6 6.6 2.4 11.4 2.9 18.3 8.1 27.0 2.6 2.16 1.10 1.11 .40 1.91 .49 3.06 1.36 4.53 .44 Craft and related w o rk e rs ........................................................................... ....................... Automotive body repairers.............................................................................................. Automotive m e chanics.................................................................................................... Diesel m echanics............................................................................................................. Maintenance repairers, general utility ............................................................................ M achinists......................................................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors....................................................................................... 62.8 2.0 26.6 15.1 3.5 2.9 7.9 15.21 .48 6.44 3.66 .84 .70 1.92 89.9 2.8 37.2 21.6 5.0 4.1 12.4 91.6 2.9 37.9 22.0 5.0 4.2 12.6 91.9 2.9 38.0 22.0 5.1 4.2 12.6 15.39 .48 6.37 3.69 .85 .71 2.12 O peratives............................................................................................................................ Transport equipment op erative s.................................................................................... Industrial truck operators............................................................................................... Delivery and route w o rk e rs ........................................................................................... Truck drivers ................................................................................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators.......................................................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing .............................................. Tire changers and re paire rs........................................................................................... 42.1 30.3 2.6 17.5 9.3 3.3 1.5 2.2 10.20 7.35 .63 4.24 2.26 .79 .37 .54 64.0 47.2 3.7 27.9 14.3 4.7 2.2 3.2 65.1 48.0 3.8 28.4 14.6 4.8 2.2 3.3 65.4 48.2 3.8 28.5 14.6 4.8 2.2 3.3 10.94 8.06 .63 4.77 2.44 .80 .37 .55 Service w orke rs................................................................................................................... Building custodians.......................................................................................................... 4.2 3.6 1.02 .88 6.0 5.2 6.1 5.3 6.1 5.3 1.02 .89 Laborers, except farm .................................................................... .................................... Stock handlers ............................................................................................................. . 27.9 18.7 6.75 4.54 40.5 28.6 41.2 29.1 41.3 29.2 6.92 4.89 Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 1,344.9 100.00 1,630.8 1,661.2 1,666.5 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Electrical engineers ......................................................................................................... Industrial engineers ......................................................................................................... Mechanical engineers ..................................................................................................... D rafters................ .............................................................................................................. Electrical and electronic technicians............................................................................. Computer program m ers.................................................................................................. Computer systems analvsts ........................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs ............................................................................................... Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................ 154.5 4.0 3.3 5.4 2.5 62.7 5.5 16.9 15.2 15.2 11.49 .30 .24 .40 .19 4.67 .41 1.26 1.13 1.13 203.5 6.5 3.9 6.6 2.4 83.9 8.3 23.7 20.4 18.4 207.2 6.6 4.0 6.7 2.4 85.4 8.5 24.2 20.7 18.7 207.9 6.7 4.0 6.7 2.4 85.7 8.5 24.3 20.8 18.8 12.48 .40 .24 .40 .15 5.14 .51 1.46 1.25 1.13 Managers, officials, and proprietors................................................................................. Sales managers, retail trade .......................................................................................... W holesalers...................................................................................................................... 117.2 39.2 38.2 8.72 2.92 2.84 153.4 52.4 51.2 156.3 53.4 52.1 156.8 53.6 52.3 9.41 3.22 3.14 Sales w orke rs...................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, nontechnical.............................................................................. Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l.................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ...................................................................................................................... 275.6 154.9 96.8 23.9 20.49 11.52 7.19 1.78 360.3 202.9 128.4 28.9 367.0 206.7 130.8 29.5 368.2 207.3 131.2 29.6 22.09 12.44 7.87 1.77 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ 347.6 21.8 25.85 1.62 373.3 21.5 380.3 21.9 381.5 22.0 22.89 1.32 M achinery, equipm ent, and supplies See footnotes at end of table. 157 E-1. Employment in seieeted industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Machinery, equipm ent, and supplies—C ontinued Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... C a sh ie rs ........................................................... ................................................................. General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Bookkeeping and billing op e ra to rs................................................................................. Data entry operators ........................................................................................................ R eceptionists..................................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Shipping and receiving c le rk s ......................................................................................... Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists............................................................................. 25.7 4.5 76.3 13.6 6.8 5.5 47.0 14.5 22.1 18.6 39.4 8.4 1.91 .34 5.67 1.01 .51 .41 3.50 1.08 1.64 1.39 2.93 .62 24.6 6.3 87.9 16.5 4.4 6.7 53.0 14.7 21.8 19.4 40.2 10.1 25.1 6.4 89.5 16.8 4.5 6.8 54.0 14.9 22.2 19.8 41.0 10.3 25.1 6.4 89.8 16.8 4.5 6.8 54.2 15.0 22.3 19.8 41.1 10.4 1.51 .39 5.39 1.01 .27 .41 3.25 .90 1.34 1.19 2.47 .62 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Plumbers and pipefitters.................................................................................................... Mechanics, repairers, and in s ta lle rs ................................................................................ Automotive m e chanics..................................................................................................... Computer service technicians......................................................................................... Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................. Engineering equipment m echanics................................................................................ Farm equipment m e chanics.......................... ................................................................. Industrial machinery re paire rs......................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... Office machine repairers.................................................................................................. M achinists............................................................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................... Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs................................................................................ Opticians, dispensing and optical m echanics................................................................ 295.4 2.2 246.3 38.6 38.2 35.2 35.7 15.4 3.5 28.8 39.7 3.9 24.2 2.8 2.0 21.97 .17 18.32 2.87 2.84 2.62 2.66 1.14 .26 2.14 2.95 .29 1.80 .20 .15 383.7 2.7 325.8 38.6 70.9 37.8 36.8 15.4 4.3 36.5 72.1 4.7 28.1 3.3 2.0 390.8 2.7 331.9 39.3 72.2 38.5 37.5 15.7 4.4 37.2 73.4 4.8 28.6 3.4 2.0 392.1 2.8 333.0 39.5 72.4 38.6 37.6 15.7 4.4 37.3 73.7 4.8 28.7 3.4 2.0 23.53 .17 19.98 2.37 4.35 2.32 2.26 .94 .26 2.24 4.42 .29 1.72 .20 .12 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................ Chauffeurs.......................................................................................................................... Industrial truck op erators................................................................................................. Delivery and route w orkers............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... 76.8 4.0 1.2 4.8 20.9 23.6 5.71 .30 .09 .36 1.55 1.76 79.4 4.8 1.5 5.8 20.4 25.4 80.9 4.9 1.5 6.0 20.7 25.9 81.2 4.9 1.5 6.0 20.8 26.0 4.87 .30 .09 .36 1.25 1.56 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................ . 24.4 23.2 1.82 1.73 23.2 21.7 23.6 22.1 23.7 22.1 1.42 1.33 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................ 53.3 2.7 31.0 3.96 .20 2.30 54.0 3.3 32.3 55.0 3.4 32.9 55.2 3.4 33.0 3.31 .20 1.98 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 15,257.4 100.00 19,689.9 20,363.6 20,696.4 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. P harm acists....................................................................................................................... D esigners........................................................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs ............................................................................................... Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................ 417.6 82.1 62.7 40.0 150.9 2.74 .54 .41 .26 .99 546.5 103.9 79.9 53.8 198.0 569.4 108.6 83.3 56.2 206.8 580.8 110.9 85.0 57.4 211.1 2.80 .53 .41 .28 1.02 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. Auto parts department m anagers.................................................................................. Auto service department m a nagers.............................................................................. Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers ............................................................................ Sales managers, retail tr a d e .......................................................................................... Store managers................................................................................................................. All other m a nage rs........................................................................................................... 1,435.3 34.0 42.7 312.8 107.3 768.6 169.2 9.41 .22 .28 2.05 .70 5.04 1.11 1,978.3 50.1 63.7 452.8 136.6 1,014.7 259.5 2,051.9 52.4 66.6 458.5 142.7 1,060.7 270.3 2,088.4 53.5 68.0 461.1 145.7 1,083.6 275.7 10.08 .26 .33 2.25 .70 5.21 1.33 Retail trade See footnotes at end of table. 158 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Retail trade—C ontinued Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, nontechnical............................................................................... Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l..................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 3,366.6 173.0 758.8 2,379.0 22.07 1.13 4.97 15.59 4,085.9 206.9 929.9 2,879.0 4,264.8 216.2 971.3 3,004.2 4,353.6 220.8 991.9 3,066.3 20.94 1.06 4.77 14.75 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... Cashiers ............................................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors..................................................................... ..................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Order c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... Service c le rk s .................................................................................................................... Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................ Shipping packers .............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 2,719.6 71.8 276.6 1,247.3 26.6 282.8 40.5 77.6 22.1 71.5 20.8 292.6 17.82 .47 1.81 8.17 .17 1.85 .27 .51 .15 .47 .14 1.92 3,624.7 86.4 315.5 1,768.8 37.0 377.4 51.3 101.7 31.8 82.2 26.7 350.0 3,776.5 90.2 327.6 1,840.6 38.7 394.2 53.6 106.1 33.2 85.8 27.9 365.5 3,851.9 92.0 333.6 1,876.3 39.5 402.5 54.7 108.3 33.8 87.6 28.4 373.1 18.55 .44 1.61 9.04 .19 1.94 .26 .52 .16 .42 .14 1.79 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Automotive body repairers............................................................................................... Automotive m e chanics..................................................................................................... Bakers ................................................................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors....................................................................................... Merchandise dispiayers and window trim m e rs............................................................ T a ilo rs ................................................................................................................................. 806.5 44.8 300.0 46.9 36.6 16.5 41.0 5.29 .29 1.97 .31 .24 .11 .27 1,138.0 68.1 472.8 57.6 51.1 26.3 57.0 1,190.2 71.2 495.4 60.2 53.3 27.4 59.5 1,216.2 72.7 506.7 61.4 54.5 28.0 60.7 5.84 .35 2.43 .30 .26 .13 .29 O peratives............................................................................................................................. B a g g e rs.............................................................................................................................. Production packagers....................................................................................................... Delivery and route w orke rs............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators........................................................................... Tire changers and re paire rs........................................................................................... 1,115.1 242.0 63.2 199.2 103.9 316.1 54.4 7.31 1.59 .41 1.31 .68 2.07 .36 1,273.5 219.1 73.8 243.0 136.0 345.0 76.4 1,333.6 228.6 76.9 253.1 142.3 364.6 79.8 1,363.5 233.4 78.5 258.2 145.4 374.4 81.5 6.55 1.12 .38 1.24 .70 1.79 .39 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building cu sto d ia n s............................................................................................................ Food service workers ....................................................................................................... Bakers, bread and p a s try ................................................................................................ Bartenders ......................................................................................................................... Butchers and meat c u tte rs .............................................................................................. Cooks, restaurant.............................................................................................................. Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................ Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants................................... Hosts/hostesses, restaurants, lounges, and coffee sh o p s........................................ Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................................. Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers............................................................................ Waiters and w aitresses................................................................................................... Waiters’ assistants............................................................................................................ Ail other food service w o rk e rs ....................................................................................... Supervisors, nonworking, se rv ic e .................................................................................... 4,621.6 251.7 4,237.8 22.7 242.2 149.2 266.9 386.2 792.2 93.8 411.4 56.3 1,363.8 194.2 257.9 42.5 30.29 1.65 27.78 .15 1.59 .98 1.75 2.53 5.19 .61 2.70 .37 8.94 1.27 1.69 .28 6,130.3 299.3 5,637.9 30.7 331.6 130.0 384.5 506.1 1,072.2 126.9 586.0 75.3 1,790.9 240.1 362.5 58.2 6,224.4 308.6 5,716.9 31.1 335.7 135.6 389.5 513.0 1,085.6 128.4 594.1 76.4 1,814.7 243.1 368.4 59.1 6,269.4 313.2 5,754.4 31.3 337.7 138.4 391.9 516.3 1,092.0 129.2 597.9 76.9 1,826.0 244.5 371.3 59.6 30.57 1.52 28.07 .15 1.65 .67 1.91 2.52 5.33 .63 2.92 .38 8.91 1.19 1.81 .29 Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................ Cleaners, v eh icle............................................................................................................... Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................ Stock clerk, sales f lo o r ................................................................................................... 775.2 43.5 28.6 595.0 5.08 .28 .19 3.90 912.8 62.0 34.6 678.7 952.8 64.9 36.2 708.5 972.7 66.3 37.0 723.3 4.68 .32 .18 3.48 See footnotes at end of table. 159 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High D epartm ent stores Total, ail occupations.................................................................................................. 1,884.8 100.00 2,829.8 2,954.6 3,016.1 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Computer program m ers.................................................................................................. Commercial and graphic artists and designers ........................................................... D esigners.......................................................................................................................... Accountants and a u ditors............................................................................................... Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................ Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... 89.7 1.4 3.8 2.7 3.9 35.5 7.5 3.70 .08 .20 .14 .21 1.89 .40 111.0 2.2 5.7 4.8 5.9 59.3 11.3 115.9 2.3 6.0 5.0 6.2 61.9 11.8 118.3 2.3 6.1 5.1 6.3 63.1 12.0 3.92 .08 .20 .17 .21 2.09 .40 Managers, officials, and proprietors................................................................................. Sales managers, retail trade .......................................................................................... Store managers................................................................................................................ 121.4 22.6 30.7 6.44 1.20 1.63 215.4 33.9 53.0 224.9 35.4 55.3 229.5 36.1 56.5 7.61 1.20 1.87 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, nontechnical.............................................................................. Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l.................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 859.5 14.5 124.7 673.8 45.60 .77 6.62 35.75 1,254.7 18.6 176.4 999.1 1,310.0 19.4 184.2 1,043.2 1,337.2 19.8 188.0 1,064.9 44.34 .66 6.23 35.31 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Adjustment clerks ............................................................................................................ Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ Bookkeepers, h a n d .......................................................................................................... Cashiers ............................................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors.......................................................................................................... Collectors, bill and a c c o u n t............................................................................................ Credit a u th o riz e s .............................................................................................................. File cle rk s ........................................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... Bookkeeping, billing machine op erators....................................................................... Computer operators.......................................................................................................... Data entry o p e ra to rs ........................................................................................................ Peripheral EDP equipment operators............................................................................ Order c le rk s ...................................................................................................................... Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ...................................................................................... Personnel clerks .............................................................................................................. S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................ Service c le rk s ................................................................................................................... Shipping and receiving clerks ........................................................................................ Shipping packers ............................................................................................................. Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... Switchboard o p e ra to rs .................................................................................................... 490.3 15.7 18.8 9.5 94.5 16.5 6.2 16.9 4.8 46.2 3.6 1.4 6.1 1.8 15.6 5.5 4.9 12.2 4.6 20.4 18.3 12.7 48.1 11.1 26.02 .83 1.00 .51 5.01 .88 .33 .90 .26 2.45 .19 .08 .32 .10 .83 .29 .26 .65 .24 1.08 .97 .67 2.55 .59 758.3 23.6 25.3 12.3 179.4 24.8 7.4 25.4 5.3 77.3 5.4 2.1 8.8 2.8 23.4 8.2 7.4 18.7 4.9 29.5 22.7 17.0 62.5 7.4 791.8 24.6 26.4 12.9 187.3 25.9 7.7 26.5 5.5 80.7 5.7 2.2 9.2 2.9 24.4 8.6 7.7 19.5 5.1 30.8 23.6 17.8 65.2 7.7 808.2 25.1 26.9 13.2 191.2 26.4 7.9 27.1 5.7 82.3 5.8 2.3 9.4 2.9 24.9 8.7 7.9 20.0 5.2 31.4 24.1 18.2 66.6 7.8 26.80 .83 .89 .44 6.34 .88 .26 .90 .19 2.73 .19 .08 .31 .10 .83 .29 .26 .66 .17 1.04 .80 .60 2.21 .26 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Appliance installers and repairers ................................................................................. Automotive m echanics.................................................................................................... Industrial machinery repaire rs........................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors................... .................................................................... Merchandise displayers and window trim m e rs............................................................ T a ilo rs ................................................................................................................................. 92.0 11.7 13.8 5.2 9.0 10.5 8.5 4.88 .62 .73 .28 .48 .55 .45 137.9 17.6 17.8 7.9 13.6 18.7 12.8 144.0 18.3 18.6 8.2 14.2 19.5 13.4 147.0 18.7 19.0 8.4 14.5 19.9 13.7 4.87 .62 .63 .28 .48 .66 .45 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Delivery and route w orke rs............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs..................................................................................................................... Dressmakers, except fa c to ry .......................................................................................... Tire changers and re paire rs........................................................................................... 40.0 2.8 5.3 3.6 12.0 2.12 .15 .28 .19 .64 55.2 4.1 7.9 5.3 13.2 57.6 4.3 8.3 5.6 13.8 58.8 4.4 8.4 5.7 14.1 1.95 .15 .28 .19 .47 Service w orke rs................................................................................................................... Building custodians.......................................................................................................... 127.1 34.5 6.74 1.83 185.0 37.5 193.2 39.1 197.2 40.0 6.54 1.32 See footnotes at end of table. 160 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1995 alternatives 1982 Number Occupation Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High D epartm ent s to re s —C ontinued Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................. Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................................. Waiters and w aitresses.................................................................................................... Cosmetologists/women’s hairstylists............................................................................. G ua rds................................................................................................................................ Store de te c tiv e s ................................................................................................................ Supervisors, nonworking, s e rv ic e ................................................................................... 5.0 7.4 12.1 12.2 7.4 17.3 3.7 0.26 .39 .64 .65 .39 .92 .19 8.0 11.2 18.2 18.3 20.1 -24.6 5.5 8.3 11.7 19.0 19.1 21.0 25.7 5.8 8.5 11.9 19.4 19.5 21.4 26.2 5.9 0.28 .39 .64 .65 .71 .87 .19 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................ Stock clerk, sales f lo o r .................................................................................................... 84.9 4.9 65.3 4.51 .26 3.46 112.3 6.5 83.7 117.3 6.8 87.4 119.7 6.9 89.2 3.97 .23 2.96 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 2,163.4 100.00 2,458.0 2,564.8 2,617.9 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ................................................................... P harm acists....................................................................................................................... Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................. 39.1 1.3 33.7 1.81 .06 1.56 44.5 1.5 38.2 46.4 1.6 39.9 47.3 1.6 40.7 1.81 .06 1.56 Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................. Sales managers, retail tr a d e ........................................................................................... Store m anagers................................................................................................................. 178.1 2.0 150.0 8.23 .09 6.94 229.8 2.3 191.2 239.8 2.4 199.5 244.8 2.4 203.6 9.35 .09 7.78 Sales w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l..................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 238.5 1.4 236.7 11.03 .06 10.94 238.7 1.4 237.0 249.0 1.4 247.2 254.2 1.5 252.4 9.71 .06 9.64 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, h a n d ........................................................................................................... Cashiers ............................................................................................................................. Clerical supervisors........................................................................................................... General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... Secretaries and stenographers....................................................................................... Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ...................................................................... 808.3 2.2 30.4 641.8 1.1 34.6 9.2 83.0 37.36 .10 1.40 29.67 .05 1.60 .42 3.84 1,023.2 2.5 32.5 838.7 1.3 39.3 11.1 91.0 1,067.7 2.7 34.0 875.2 1.3 41.0 11.6 94.9 1,089.8 2.7 34.7 893.3 1.3 41.8 11.8 96.9 41.63 .10 1.32 34.12 .05 1.60 .45 3.70 Craft and related w o rk e rs ................................................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................ Bakers ................................................................................................................................ Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ 30.2 1.1 23.8 2.2 1.40 .05 1.10 .10 34.3 1.2 27.0 2.5 35.8 1.3 28.2 2.6 36.6 1.3 28.8 2.7 1.40 .05 1.10 .10 O peratives............................................................................................................................. B a g g e rs.............................................................................................................................. Production packagers....................................................................................................... Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................. Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................. Truck driv e rs ...................................................................................................................... Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food products...................................... 319.9 239.3 50.1 1.3 7.2 11.0 8.6 14.78 11.06 2.31 .06 .33 .51 .40 307.2 215.7 56.9 1.5 8.2 12.5 9.8 320.6 225.1 59.4 1.6 8.5 13.1 10.2 327.2 229.7 60.6 1.6 8.7 13.3 10.4 12.50 8.77 2.31 .06 .33 .51 .40 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... Butchers and meat c u tte rs .............................................................................................. Cooks, restaurant.............................................................................................................. Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................ Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................................. Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers........................................................................... Waiters and w aitre sses.................................................................................................... G ua rds................................................................................................................................ 174.0 22.6 131.7 1.3 2.6 1.1 2.0 2.9 1.7 8.04 1.05 6.09 .06 .12 .05 .09 .13 .08 159.2 25.7 111.2 1.4 2.9 1.3 2.3 3.3 2.0 166.1 26.8 116.0 1.5 3.0 1.3 2.4 3.4 2.0 169.6 27.4 118.4 1.5 3.1 1.4 2.4 3.5 2.1 6.48 1.05 4.52 .06 .12 .05 .09 .13 .08 G rocery s to re s See footnotes at end of table. 161 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High G r o c e r y s to r e s — C o n tin u e d Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Stock clerk, sales f lo o r .......................................... ......................................................... 375.3 363.2 17.35 16.79 421.0 407.2 439.3 424.9 448.4 433.7 17.13 16.57 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 690.5 100.00 1,051.4 1,098.7 1,122.2 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................ 12.3 12.1 1.79 1.76 18.8 18.5 19.6 19.3 20.1 19.7 1.79 1.76 Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................. Auto parts department m anagers................................................................................... Auto service department m anagers............................................................................... Store managers................................................................................................................. 101.1 22.3 29.0 44.7 14.65 3.23 4.20 6.48 163.2 34.5 45.7 75.1 170.5 36.0 47.8 78.5 174.2 36.8 48.8 80.1 15.52 3.28 4.35 7.14 Sales w o rke rs....................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, nontechnical............................................................................... Sales representatives, te ch n ica l..................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ....................................................................................................................... 154.6 22.3 125.3 6.8 22.39 3.24 18.14 .99 222.8 29.1 181.2 12.4 232.8 30.4 189.3 12.9 237.8 31.0 193.4 13.2 21.19 2.76 17.23 1.18 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................. Bookkeepers, hand ........................................................................................................... C a sh ie rs............................................................................................................................. General clerks, o ffic e ....................................................................................................... R eceptionists..................................................................................................................... S ecretaries......................................................................................................................... Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................ Switchboard o p erators..................................................................................................... 109.4 13.0 19.7 11.6 25.4 1.2 5.4 21.6 6.4 2.0 15.84 1.88 2.85 1.69 3.67 .18 .78 3.13 .92 .30 151.3 15.0 22.3 19.1 38.6 1.8 6.3 31.6 9.7 2.2 158.1 15.6 23.4 20.0 40.4 1.9 6.6 33.0 10.1 2.3 161.5 16.0 23.9 20.4 41.2 2.0 6.7 33.7 10.4 2.4 14.39 1.42 2.13 1.82 3.67 .18 .60 3.01 .92 .21 Craft and related w o rke rs................................................................................................... Automotive body repairers............................................................................................... Automotive m e chanics..................................................................................................... Auto repair service estim a to rs........................................................................................ Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................. Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................ 220.4 40.6 153.8 8.0 7.0 10.3 31.93 5.88 22.28 1.16 1.01 1.48 358.5 61.8 257.1 12.1 10.6 15.6 374.6 64.6 268.6 12.7 11.1 16.3 382.7 66.0 274.4 13.0 11.3 16.7 34.10 5.88 24.45 1.16 1.01 1.48 O peratives............................................................................................................................. Painters, autom otive......................................................................................................... Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................. Truck d rive rs...................................................................................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators........................................................................... 25.4 8.6 6.3 3.1 4.1 3.68 1.24 .91 .44 .60 38.7 13.1 9.6 4.7 6.3 40.5 13.7 10.0 4.9 6.6 41.3 14.0 10.2 5.0 6.7 3.68 1.25 .91 .44 .60 Service w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Building custodians........................................................................................................... 19.2 18.6 2.77 2.70 29.0 28.4 30.3 29.6 31.0 30.3 2.76 2.70 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... Cleaners, ve h icle ............................................................................................................... Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................. 48.0 36.6 9.3 6.95 5.30 1.35 69.1 51.7 14.1 72.2 54.1 14.8 73.8 55.2 15.1 6.58 4.92 1.35 Total, all occupations................................................................................................... 550.4 100.00 695.3 735.5 755.6 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................ 3.2 2.9 .57 .53 4.0 3.7 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.0 .57 .53 Managers, officials, and proprie tors................................................................................. 64.4 11.71 84.6 89.5 92.0 12.17 M o t o r v e h ic le d e a le r s ( n e w a n d u s e d ) G a s o lin e s e r v ic e s ta tio n s See footnotes at end of table. 162 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High G a s o lin e s e r v ic e s ta t io n s — C o n tin u e d Store managers................................................................................................................ 61.7 11.22 81.2 85.9 88.2 11.68 Sales w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................................... Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l.................................................................................... 2.0 1.0 .37 .19 2.3 1.1 2.4 1.2 2.5 1.2 .33 .16 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Bookkeepers, h a n d .......................................................................................................... C a s h ie rs ............................................................................................................................ General clerks, o ffic e ...................................................................................................... 68.1 16.4 41.3 9.3 12.37 2.98 7.50 1.70 122.0 17.8 91.0 11.8 129.1 18.8 96.3 12.5 132.6 19.4 98.9 12.8 17.55 2.56 13.09 1.70 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Automotive m e chanics.................................................................................................... 72.2 70.3 13.11 12.76 108.4 106.0 114.7 112.1 117.8 115.2 15.59 15.24 O peratives............................................................................................................................ Truck d rive rs..................................................................................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators.......................................................................... 315.9 13.5 300.7 57.39 2.46 54.63 342.9 17.1 323.7 362.8 18.1 342.5 372.7 18.6 351.8 49.32 2.46 46.56 Service w orke rs................................................................................................................... Building custodians.......................................................................................................... Cooks, restaurant............................................................................................................. Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................................ Waiters and w aitresses................................................................................................... 22.0 1.3 1.1 6.2 10.9 3.99 .23 .20 1.13 1.99 27.8 1.6 1.4 7.9 13.8 29.4 1.7 1.5 8.3 14.6 30.2 1.8 1.5 8.6 15.0 3.99 .23 .20 1.13 1.99 Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................ Cleaners, ve h ic le .............................................................................................................. 2.7 1.5 .48 .27 3.4 1.9 3.6 2.0 3.6 2.0 .48 .27 Total, all occupations.................................................................................................. 4,781.4 100.00 6,472.6 6,551.5 6,588.6 100.00 Professional, technical, and related workers .................................................................. Musicians .......................................................................................................................... 29.8 18.4 .62 .38 40.3 24.0 40.8 25.2 41.1 25.3 .62 .38 Managers, officials, and proprietors................................................................................. Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers ............................................................................ 328.7 311.2 6.88 6.51 474.5 450.8 480.3 456.3 483.0 458.9 7.33 6.96 Sales w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................................... Sales c le rk s ...................................................................................................................... 54.0 52.9 1.13 1.11 67.3 65.9 68.1 66.7 68.5 67.0 1.04 1.02 Clerical w orke rs................................................................................................................... Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ Bookkeepers, hand .......................................................................................................... C a s h ie rs ............................................................................................................................ General clerks, office ...................................................................................................... S ecretaries.................................................... .................................................................... Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..................................................................... 223.7 2.3 56.8 150.3 4.0 2.8 1.6 4.68 .05 1.19 3.14 .08 .06 .03 310.5 2.6 66.2 222.5 5.4 3.8 2.2 314.3 2.6 67.0 225.2 5.4 3.8 2.3 316.1 2.6 67.3 226.5 5.4 3.8 2.3 4.80 .04 1.02 3.44 .08 .06 .03 Craft and related w o rk e rs .................................................................................................. Maintenance repairers, general u tility ........................................................................... 4.5 1.9 .09 .04 6.0 2.6 6.1 2.6 6.1 2.6 .09 .04 O peratives............................................................................................................................ Delivery and route w orke rs............................................................................................. Fuel pump attendants and lubricators.......................................................................... 22.2 16.8 1.4 .46 .35 .03 30.0 22.8 1.9 30.4 23.1 1.9 30.6 23.2 1.9 .46 .35 .03 Service w orke rs................................................................................................................... Building cu sto d ia n s........................................................................................................... Food service w o rk e rs ....................................................................................................... Bakers, bread and p a s try ............................................................................................... Bartenders ....................................................................... ................................................. Cooks, restaurant............................................................................................................. 4,112.9 107.1 3,944.9 22.0 240.2 259.9 86.02 2.24 82.51 .46 5.02 5.44 5,536.4 125.2 5,326.7 29.8 329.1 375.0 5,603.8 126.7 5,391.6 30.2 333.1 379.5 5,635.6 127.4 5,422.2 30.4 335.0 381.7 85.54 1.93 82.30 .46 5.08 5.79 E a tin g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s See footnotes at end of table. 163 E=1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High E a tin g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s — C o n t in u e d Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................ Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants................................... Hosts/hostesses, restaurants, lounges, and coffee sh o p s........................................ Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................................. Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers........................................................................... Waiters and w aitresses.................................................................................................... Waiters’ assistants............................................................................................................ All other food service w o rk e rs ........................................................................................ Supervisors, nonworking, s e rv ic e ....................................................... ............................. 369.2 783.0 92.9 391.7 51.8 1,319.7 192.6 220.2 37.6 7.72 16.37 1.94 8.19 1.08 27.60 4.03 4.61 .79 484.2 1,061.6 125.7 559.9 70.2 1,735.8 238.0 315.2 50.8 490.1 1,074.5 127.2 566.7 71.0 1,757.0 240.9 319.0 51.5 492.9 1,080.6 128.0 569.9 71.4 1,766.9 242.2 320.8 51.8 7.48 16.40 1.94 8.65 1.08 26.82 3.68 4.87 .79 Laborers, except fa r m ......................................................................................................... 5.5 .12 7.5 7.6 7.6 .12 Total, all occupations................................................. ................................................. 5,350.3 100.00 7,081.6 7,173.9 7,290.3 100.00 Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs .................................................................. A ctu a rie s............................................................................................................................ Computer program m ers................................................................................................... Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................ Financial analysts ............................................................................................................. Public relations specialists............................................................................................... Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................ Brokers’ floor reps and security tra d e rs ....................................................................... Claim examiners, property/casualty insurance............................................................ Credit analysts, c h ie f........................................................................................................ Credit analysts................................................................................................................... Insurance investigators..................................................... .............................................. La w ye rs.............................................................................................................................. Personnel and labor relations specialists..................................................................... Safety insp e cto rs.............................................................................................................. Special agents, insurance................................................................................................ Title examiners and abstractors .................................................................................... Underwriters ............................... ...................................................................................... 506.0 5.6 39.8 31.3 14.9 9.9 74.6 10.6 20.3 8.3 20.5 9.5 9.9 14.4 7.3 25.2 10.3 75.8 9.46 .10 .74 .58 .28 .18 1.39 .20 .38 .16 .38 .18 .18 .27 .14 .47 .19 1.42 696.0 7.3 65.0 54.9 19.6 13.6 102.9 13.0 26.1 11.9 29.3 12.2 13.8 18.5 10.4 38.1 15.2 90.2 706.0 7.4 65.9 55.7 19.8 13.7 104.2 13.1 26.6 12.0 29.5 12.4 14.0 18.7 10.6 38.8 15.7 91.8 718.3 7.5 67.0 56.6 20.2 13.9 106.0 13.4 27.0 12.2 30.1 12.6 14.3 19.0 10.8 39.5 16.1 93.4 9.84 .10 .92 .78 .28 .19 1.45 .18 .37 .17 .41 .17 .20 .26 .15 .54 .22 1.28 Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................. 912.8 17.06 1,268.5 1,284.4 1,305.4 17.90 Sales w o rk e rs............................... ....................................................................................... Real estate brokers ......................................................................................................... Sales agents, sales representatives, real e s ta te ......................................................... Real estate appraisers..................................................................................................... Sales agents and brokers, insurance...................................................................... ...... Sales agents and representatives, financial s ervice s................................................. Security salesworkers....................................................................................................... 507.9 17.2 95.7 16.5 244.7 22.4 62.4 9.49 .32 1.79 .31 4.57 .42 1.17 732.3 23.5 166.7 29.2 321.6 33.0 87.3 743.1 23.9 169.1 29.5 327.4 33.3 88.1 756.0 24.2 171.7 30.0 333.1 33.9 90.0 10.36 .33 2.36 .41 4.56 .46 1.23 Clerical w orke rs.................................................................................................................... Adjustment clerks ............................................................................................................. New accounts te lle rs ........................................................................................................ T e lle rs ................................................................................................................................. Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................ Bookkeepers, h a n d .......................................................................................................... Brokerage c le rk s .............................................................................................................. C a sh ie rs ................................ ............................................................................................ Checking c le rk s .................................. .............................................................................. Claims adjusters............................................................................................................... Claims c le rk s ..................................................................................................................... Claims examiner, insurance............................................................................................ Clerical supervisors.......................................................................................................... Collectors, bill and a c c o u n t............................................................................................ Credit clerks, banking and insurance............................................................................ 2,856.9 8.4 67.3 471.5 103.5 68.1 16.5 25.6 18.0 49.9 46.7 47.3 155.3 47.4 49.6 53.40 .16 1.26 8.81 1.93 1.27 .31 .48 .34 .93 .87 .88 2.90 .89 .93 3,632.2 11.2 79.1 607.0 122.0 78.9 20.2 40.8 22.4 78.2 69.7 61.1 214.3 72.2 75.7 3,678.2 11.3 73.9 613.1 123.6 80.0 20.3 41.3 22.7 79.7 70.9 62.2 217.0 72.9 76.4 3,737.3 11.5 81.1 621.7 125.7 81.3 20.8 42.0 23.0 81.0 72.2 63.3 220.5 74.2 77.8 51.27 .16 1.11 8.55 1.72 1.11 .28 .58 .32 1.11 .99 .87 3.03 1.02 1.07 F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d r e a l e s t a t e See footnotes at end of table. 164 E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued (Numbers in thousands) 1982 1995 alternatives Occupation Number Number Percent Percent Low Moderate High Finance, in s u r a n c e , a n d r e a l e s t a t e — C o n t i n u e d Credit reporters ................................................................................................................ File c le rk s ..........................................................................................................................