View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

Employment Projections
fo r1995
U.S. D epartm ent of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
M arch 1984
Bulletin 2197




9

Employment Projections
for1995
U.S. D epartm ent of Labor
Raym ond J. Donovan, S e cre ta ry
Bureau of Labor S ta tistics
Janet L. N orw ood, C om m issioner
M arch 1984
B ulletin 2197

F o r sale by th e S u p erin te n d en t of D ocum ents, U.S. G overnm ent P rin tin g Office, W ashington, D.C. 20402







Pr@fa©@

The bulletin presents the latest Bureau o f Labor
Statistics employment projections for the year 1995, in­
cluding the economic and labor force estimates on
which they are based. It consists o f four articles from
the November 1983 issue of the M onthly L abor Review
and supplementary tables containing additional data
that are frequently requested.
These projections are part of a program initiated 20
years ago to study alternative patterns o f economic
growth and their effects on employment. Earlier
employment projections in this series cover the years




1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. Further background
data and descriptions o f the models and analytical
systems used can be obtained from the Office of
Economic Growth and Employment Projections.
The authors are cited at the beginning o f each article.
The appendix tables were compiled and prepared for
publication by David Frank using photocom position
systems developed by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics.
M aterial in this publication is in the public domain and,
with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without
permission.

Contents

Page
The 1995 labor force: a second l o o k ......................................................................................................
1
Economic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenarios for economic g r o w t h ......................................
9
The j ob outlook through 1995: industry output and employment proj ections.............................. 22
Occupational employment projections through 1995 .......................................................................... 35
Appendix tables:
Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95:
A -l. Middle growth p a th ..................................................................................................................
A-2. High growth path ....................................................................................................................
A-3. Low growth p a t h .......................................................................................................................
A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and growth
path, 1986-95..............................................................................
A-5. Labor force and participation rates by sex and growth path, 1986-95 ..........................

48
52
56
60
64

Selected aggregate economic assum ptions, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected
1990 and 1995:
B -l. V a lu e s.......................................................................................................................................... 65
B-2. Rates o f c h a n g e ......................................................................................................................... 66
Gross national product and m ajor components by industry:
C -l. 1972..............................................................................................................................................
C-2. 1977..............................................................................................................................................
C-3. 1995 low alternative..................................................................................................................
C-4. 1995 m oderate alternative........................................................................................................
C-5. 1995 high altern ativ e................................................................................................................

67
73
79
85
91

O utput and employment by industry, 1958-95:
D -l. Gross output ............................................................................................................................. 97
D-2. Total em ploym ent......................................................................................................................109
D-3. Total hours paid ........................................................................................................................121
E -l. Emplyment inselected industries and occupations, 1982 and
projected 1995 alternatives...................................................................................................................... 133




iv

The 1995 labor force:
a second look
About 131A million persons are expected to be
in the 1995 labor force, 3.8 million more
than projected earlier; alternative projections
use various demographic and, for the first time,
economic assumptions about the laborforce
How ard

N

F u l l e r t o n , Jr .

and

Jo h n T s c h e t t e r

sensitivity of labor force changes to assumptions about real
earnings and the employment rate.

During the 1982-95 period, the number of persons of prime
working age (25-54) in the labor force is expected to grow
considerably faster than the total labor force. Young workers
will decline in absolute numbers as the rate of growth of
the total labor force slows markedly. These growth trends
reflect the aging of the baby-boom generation and a sub­
sequent sharp decline in birth rates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its labor force
projections for the 1982-95 period.1 For the middle scen­
ario, which assumes that labor force participation of women
will accelerate then taper off, the civilian labor force is
projected to reach 131.4 million persons by 1995, 3.8 mil­
lion more than projected earlier.2The labor force is expected
to grow 1.6 percent per year over the 1982-90 period,
slowing to 1.0 percent per year during 1990-95, thus con­
tinuing the slow growth which began in the late 1970’s.
Nearly two-thirds of the growth will be among women;
nearly one-fourth will be among the black and other group.3
This article presents new projections for the 1995 labor
force with alternative demographic and, for the first time,
economic assumptions. The demographic alternatives illus­
trate the sensitivity of the size of the projected labor force
to various assumptions regarding the behavior of age, sex,
and racial groups.4 The economic alternatives explore the

Methodology
Labor force projections require population projections.
The latter have been prepared by the Bureau of the Census
by age, sex, and race, based on trends in birth rates, death
rates, and net migration.5 Once the population projections
are prepared, b l s can project labor force participation rates—
the percent of each group in the population who will be
working or seeking work— for 64 age, sex, and race groups.
To develop labor force participation rates for each group,
rates of growth over the 1962-81 period (or subperiods) are
analyzed using the most appropriate time period for each
group. If past trends are deemed not likely to continue
throughout the projection period, the rates are modified.
The rate of change in labor force participation was modified
for several groups: women ages 20-44 and 45 and over,
and men ages 55 and over. The rates of change in partici­
pation for all groups are tapered so that the annual changes
would be zero after the year 2004.
For women ages 20 to 44, it is assumed that the rate of
change in participation will accelerate during the 1982-85
period to allow some partial recovery from the 1980-82
economic slowdown. These projections assume that some
of the 1980-82 slowdown in female participation rates are
permanent, particularly when compared with the trends of
the early and mid-1970’s.

Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter are economists in the Office
of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Sta­
tistics.




1

For the older labor force, the participation rates have been
declining over the 1962-81 period. It is assumed that these
declines will moderate. If the historical trends for some older
groups continue, the resulting participation rates would ap­
proach zero. These modifications for women and older workers
were made to each age group within these broad groups.
The historical rates of change in participation for all re­
maining labor force groups are assumed to continue.
The levels of anticipated labor force are calculated by
applying projected participation rates to the Bureau of the
Census’ population projections.

slower, rise in participation among women ages 20 to 44.
(See tables 1 and 2.) In contrast, the increases in the labor
force during the 1970’s were influenced by the initial en­
trance of the baby-boom generation, and by the very rapid
increases in the.labor force activity of women, particularly
married women ages 20 to 44. As a consequence of these
changing influences, labor force growth is expected to slow
in the late 1980’s and the 1990’s.
The following tabulation shows labor force growth from
1950 to 1982 and projected growth from 1983 to 1995, by

Middle growth scenario

195060
Age 16 and over . . 1.3
.0
16 to 24 ...............
25 to 54 ............... . 1.3
1.6
55 and o v e r.........

age group:

The overall growth in the labor force over the next 8 to
12 years will be influenced by the baby-boom generation,
which will attain those ages at which both men and women
have their highest participation; and by the continued, but

196070
1.7
4.51.0

1.4

197082
2.4
2.7
2.3
.3

198290
1.6
- 1.3
2.9
- .7

199095
1.0

- .8
1.6
- .2

The uncertainty of projections
partment of Defense and some of the defense industries have
said there is a critical shortage of engineers that should be
reflected in our publications. During the same period, we
have had three groups representing the engineering profes­
sions say that b l s has been painting such a rosy picture for
engineers that we are causing a flood in the market and that
their member engineers cannot find jobs.
Which of these groups is correct? We examined this
dilemma and concluded that there probably are two distinct
markets for engineers. One is new college graduates who
are currently in short supply— in at least some engineering
disciplines— and these are principally among the engineer­
ing categories used by defense contractors. But 45 year-old
engineers who are working on a product or product line that
has been cancelled are in a tough job market because they
are not always able to compete with the young engineer.
The important point here is that if this situation is true for
engineers, it may also be true for accountants and auditors,
lawyers, and many other occupations.
Economists and others involved in forecasting economic
activity understand the uncertain nature of projections.
However, others, including those who are primary users of
the information, may not. Thus, the development of nu­
merical projections is only the first task in presenting in­
formation on economic trends or employment growth, it is
just as important to present the data in a meaningful way.
Unfortunately, this task is neither simple nor straight for­
ward. Despite b l s ’ experience with and concern about the
subject, we still are not sure our users understand the un­
certainty attached to our projected data. The Bureau hopes
that by indicating the factors underlying growth, preparing
evaluation of previous projections, and discussing alterna­
tives and assumptions, we will provide users with some idea
of the uncertainties.

Knowledge or insights concerning future employment
trends is very valuable. . . . Such information is used to
plan careers and training programs, and develop business
expansion plans and public policy. However, information
about future employment growth is clouded by uncer­
tainty. . . . It is very important for users to understand the
imprecise nature of projections so they can deal with the
information properly.
Although virtually no data about changes in the economy
over a 10-year period can be anticipated with absolute cer­
tainty, there are differing degrees of uncertainty. To illus­
trate, I would say with relative certitude that the younger
labor force is going to decline in this decade. The population
which will be 16 years or older in 1990 is bom and unless
there are truly revolutionary changes in labor force partic­
ipation rates for young people along with dramatic infusions
through immigration of young people, the young labor force
will decline. Perhaps, at the other end of the scale the
uncertainty would be a projection of employment in the oil
and gas well drilling industry. If I knew what the price of
oil would be in 1990 or 1995, perhaps I could come close
to projecting the level of employment in that industry. But
the factors that will determine the price of oil in 1990 are
themselves subject to great variances and uncertainty.
For much of the information on projections, the uncer­
tainty lies between these two extremes. For example, the
occupation “ computer service technician’’ is projected to
grow very rapidly. From 1982 to 1995, its projected growth
is 97 percent. I am confident that employment in this oc­
cupation will grow rapidly, certainly much faster than the
average growth of the economy over this period. However,
I am not certain that the growth rate will be 97 percent or
even fall within the 94-98 percent range shown in our
alternatives. The growth rate could be significantly greater.
Some occupations of this size, 55,000 in 1982, have grown
much faster in the past. Still, a growth rate of only 50 percent
is not beyond the realm of impossibility.
Concerns received from the public have led us to think
and probe further in terms of asking questions about our
projections. For example, in the last 6 months, the De­




— Ronald E. Kutscher
Associate Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Remarks before a Labor Market Information
Conference in Atlanta, Ga., June 1983

2

T able 1.

C ivilian labor force, by sex, age, and race, 1 9 7 0 -8 2 , and m iddle grow th projection to 1995
P articip atio n rate

Labor force (in thousands)
Labor group
197 0

199 0

1 982

1 980

1 99 5

1970

1 98 0

1 98 2

1 99 0

1S05

Total, age 16 and over................................

82,771

106,940

110,204

124,951

131,387

60.4

63.8

64.0

66.9

67.8

Men ........................................................
16 to 2 4 ..............................................
16 to 1 9 ..........................................
20 to 24
25 to 5 4 ..............................................
25 to 34 ..........................................
35 to 44 ..........................................
45 to 54 ..........................................
55 and over .......................................
55 to 64 ................................
65 and over .....................................

51,228
9,725
4,008
5,717
32,213
11,327
10,469
10,417
9,291
7,126
2,165

61,453
13,606
4,999
8,607
38,712
16,971
11,836
9,905
9,135
7,242
1,893

62,450
13,074
4,470
8,604
40,357
17,793
12,781
9,784
9,019
7,174
1,845

67,701
11,274
4,123
7,151
48,180
19,569
17,469
11,142
8,247
6,419
1,828

69,970
10,573
4,043
6,530
51,358
18,105
19,446
13,807
8,039
6,311
1,728

79.7
69.4
56.1
83.3
95.8
96.4
96.9
94.3
55.7
83.0
26.8

77.4
74.4
60.5
85.9
94.2
95.2
95.5
91.2
45.6
72.1
19.0

76.6
72.6
56.7
84.9
94.0
94.7
95.3
91.2
43.8
70.2
17.8

76.5
74.7
62.3
84.4
93.8
93.7
95.6
91.3
37.4
65.5
14.9

76.1
74.5
62.9
84.1
93.4
93.1
95.3
91.1
35.3
64.5
13.3

Women ...................................................
16 to 2 4 ..............................................
16 to 1 9 ..........................................
20 to 24 ..........................................
25 to 5 4 ..............................................
25 to 34 ..........................................
35 to 4 4 ..........................................
45 to 5 4 ..........................................
55 and over .......................................
55 to 64 ..........................................
65 and over .....................................

31,543
8,121
3,241
4,880
18,208
5,708
5,968
6,532
5,213
4,157
1,056

45,487
11,696
4,381
7,315
27,888
12,257
8,627
7,004
5,904
4,742
1,161

47,755
11,533
4,056
7,477
30,149
13,393
9,651
7,105
6,073
4,888
1,185

57,250
10,813
3,778
7,035
40,496
16,804
14,974
8,718
5,941
4,612
1,329

61,417
10,557
3,761
6,796
44,852
16,300
17,427
11,125
6,008
4,671
1,337

43.3
51.3
44.0
57.7
50.1
45.0
51.1
54.4
25.3
43.0
9.7

51.5
61.9
52.9
68.9
64.0
65.5
65.5
59.9
22.8
41.3
8.1

52.6
62.0
51.4
69.8
66.3
68.0
68.0
61.6
22.7
41.8
7.9

58.3
69.1
56.8
78.1
75.6
78.1
78.6
67.1
20.5
41.5
7.4

60.3
71.6
58.2
82.0
78.7
81.7
82.8
69.5
19.9
42.5
7.0

W hite..........................................................
Men .......................................................
16 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 5 4 ..............................................
55 and over .......................................
Women ...................................................
16 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 5 4 ..............................................
55 and over .......................................

73,556
46,035
8,540
29,000
8,494
27,521
7,141
15,690
4,690

93,600
54,473
11,902
34,224
8,345
39,127
10,179
23,723
5,226

96,143
55,133
11,371
35,565
8,197
41,010
10,013
25,619
5,378

107,734
59,201
9,854
41,864
7,483
48,533
9,285
34,081
5,167

112,393
60,757
9,271
44,232
7,254
51,636
9,025
37,433
5,178

60.2
80.0
70.2
96.3
55.8
42.6
52.1
48.9
24.9

64.1
78.2
76.7
95.0
46.1
51.2
64.4
63.4
22.4

64.3
77.4
74.9
94.9
44.2
52.4
64.7
66.1
22.4

67.3
77.4
78.5
94.8
37.8
58.1
72.5
75.6
20.1

68.1
77.0
79.1
94.5
35.6
60.0
75.4
78.7
19.5

Black and other .........................................
Men .......................................................
16 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 5 4 ..............................................
55 and over .......................................
Women............................: ....................
16 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..............................................
55 and over .......................................

9,218
5,194
1,185
3,212
796
4,024
982
2,517
524

13,340
6,980
1,702
4,488
790
6,359
1,516
4,164
678

14,062
7,317
1,702
4,792
822
6,745
1,520
4,529
695

17,217
8,500
1,420
6,316
764
8,717
1,528
5,415
774

18,994
9,213
1,302
7,126
785
9,781
1,532
7,419
830

61.8
76.5
64.5
91.9
54.7
49.5
46.3
59.2
30.0

61.7
71.5
61.6
88.6
40.8
53.6
49.3
67.0
26.4

61.6
71.0
60.0
88.0
40.5
53.9
48.8
67.9
25.5

64.8
71.0
55.9
87.6
34.3
59.7
53.7
75.8
23.5

65.7
70.6
52.7
87.2
32.6
61.7
55.3
78.7
22.8

The slowdown actually began in 1979. The peak labor force
growth, 3.0 percent per year, occurred between 1976 and
1979. Over the 1979-82 period, growth was only 1.6 per­
cent per year, reflecting the slowing of long-term growth,
as well as the repercussions of 3 years of flat economic
growth.
Over the 1982-95 period, there will be a pronounced
shift in the age structure of the labor force. The 25- to 54year-old labor force is expected to grow considerably faster

Tab le 2.

than the total labor force, 1.3 percentage points per year
faster during the 1982-90 period. At the same time, the
number of 16- to 24-year-old participants is projected to
decline in absolute numbers. During the 1960’s and 1970’s,
the labor force growth of younger workers was by far the
fastest of any age group, reflecting the baby-boom gener­
ation initially entering and then maturing in the labor force.
As this young generation ages in the 1990’s, the number of
persons ages 25 to 34 will decline. A shift from a young

B lack civilian labor force, by sex and age, 1 9 7 2 -8 2 , and m iddle grow th projection to 1995
Participation rate

Labor force (in thousands)
Labor group
197 2

1980

1982

1990

1995

1972

Blacks, age 16 and over..............................

8,707

10,865

11,331

13,600

14,833

59.9

61.0

61.6

64.5

65.4

Men ........................................................
16 to 2 4 ............................................
25 to 5 4 ............................................
55 and over ........................................

4,816
1,214
2,917
687

5,612
1,414
3,551
647

5,804
1,401
3,745
660

6,687
1,156
4,939
592

7,297
1,055
5,549
583

73.7
63.9
90.0
49.1

70.6
62.0
88.4
39.3

70.1
60.3
87.7
39.0

70.4
55.9
87.4
33.2

70.5
54.0
87.0
■ 31.3

Women...................................................
16 to 2 4 ............................................
25 to 5 4 ............................................
55 and over ........................................

3,890
967
2,421
503

5,253
1,279
3,387
588

5,527
1,272
3,660
595

6,913
1,210
5,073
630

7,646
1,180
5,805
661

48.7
45.0
60.0
27.8

53.2
48.9
67.6
26.1

53.7
48.4
68.8
25.3

59.0
51.8
75.7
23.6

61.2
53.2
78.6
22.9




3

1980

1982

19S0

1095

Women and minorities. During the 1982-95 period, the
number of women and minorities in the labor force are
projected to grow faster than the overall labor force. The
following tabulation shows total labor force growth and
growth for women, blacks, and black and other minorities
for the 1950-82 period, and projected growth, 1982-95:

to a prime working-age population in itself induces an in­
crease in the overall participation rate, as prime-age persons
are more likely to be in the labor force.
The population ages 55 and older will continue to in­
crease. However, the participation rates for this group are
projected to continue declining. For men, the increased pop­
ulation and declining participation have resulted in absolute
declines in their number in the labor force. For women, this
combination is expected to result in a relatively constant
number in the labor force over the next decade. It is assumed
that the new social security laws will not affect the trend of
labor force participation for the population 55 and older
between now and 1995.
These variations in growth rates by age groups mean that
persons ages 25 to 54 will account for a much greater share
of the 1995 labor force than the 1982 labor force. Prime
working-age persons (25 to 54) are expected to account for
about 73 percent of the 1995 labor force, up from 61 percent
in 1970, and 64 percent in 1982. The growing proportion
of prime-age participants could favorably affect productivity
because of the greater continuity of participation by women
and because of the higher educational attainment of ail par­
ticipants. This continuity and educational attainment imply
that the future labor force will be more experienced and
better trained, compared with the 1970’s when younger
workers (ages 16 to 24) accounted for a large share of labor
force growth. The maturing of the labor force in the 1980’s
and 1990’s means that employers may have difficulties find­
ing young workers. The decline in the number of youths
will be particularly important to the Armed Forces, the
single largest employer of young men.

195060
Total .....................
W o m en .................
Black and other ..
Blacks .............

1960

1970

1982

1990

39.0
39.4
38.3
39.3
36.6

34.8
35.3
34.2
35.0
32.8

35.9
36.4
35.3
36.1
34.8

37.3
37.8
36.8
37.5
36.3

The differences in median age between men and women
and between whites and black and other minorities reflect
the age mix of the respective labor forces. For example, in
1982, men ages 55 and over accounted for 14.4 percent of
the male labor force; women ages 55 and over accounted
for only 12.7 percent of the female labor force. These me­
dian age differences between the two groups are projected
to continue.




198290

199095

1.3
2.4
—
—

1.7
3.1
1.8
—

2.4
3.5
3.6
—

1.6
2.3
2.6
2.3

1.0
1.4
2.0
1.8

Economic dependency. Around 1986, more of the popula­
tion should be in the labor force than not in the labor force.
The economic dependency ratio, the number of persons not
in the labor force divided by those in the labor force, was
high in the 1960’s, but declined sharply through the 1970’s
as the baby-boom generation and women entered the labor
force in large numbers. During the 1980’s and 1990’s, the
ratio should continue to decline, but at a considerably more
moderate pace, reflecting only the continued increases in
participation rates for women.
The numerator of the economic dependency ratio can be
disaggregated into all persons who are (1) under age 16,
(2) between ages 16 and 64, and (3) age 65 and over. The
denominator of the ratio in each instance is the total labor
force. The following tabulation shows the economic de­
pendency ratio for 1960 to 1982 and projected for 1990 and
1995 for these age groups.

1995

All participants .. 38.6
40.5
Men ........................
39.3 40.5
Women ..................
36.7 40.4
White .......................
— 40.7
Black and other...
—
38.2

197082

Women, both white and black, will account for about
two-thirds of the labor force growth during the 1980’s and
1990’s, about the same proportion as in the 1950’s. During
the 1960’s and 1970’s, when men of the baby-boom gen­
eration entered the labor force, the proportion of growth
attributed to women dropped despite rapid increases in their
participation rates. With the young men of the baby-boom
generation now in the labor force, the share of labor force
growth attributed to women will be greater over the next
decade.
The black and other group, should account for slightly
more than 21 percent of the additions to the labor force
during the 1982-90 period, increasing to nearly 28 percent
in the 1990-95 period. Since 1960, this group’s proportion
of overall growth has been growing despite the continuing
drop in participation by black men. The black labor force
is projected to grow at almost twice the white rate, reflecting
the younger age structure of the black population.
The two groups just discussed overlap. White women and
black and other men and women together will account for
72.4 percent of the 1982-90 labor force growth, and 75.8
percent of the 1990-95 growth. These two groups accounted
for only 66.8 percent of the 1970-82 labor force growth.

Median age. The median age of the labor force will rise
slightly over the next 10 to 15 years. The median age was
fairly constant between 1950 and 1970, but dropped sharply
between 1970 and 1980 when the baby-boom generation
entered the labor force. The following tabulation shows the
median age of the labor force for 1950 to 1980 and the
projected median age for 1990 and 1995, by sex and race:
1950

196070

4

1960
1970
Total population ..
150.4
138.5
Underage 16 ............
81.45
72.1
50.2 46.8
Age 16.to 64 ............
Age 65 and over ..
18.7
19.6

1982
106.5
48.9
36.0
21.6

1990
96.4
45.2
28.4
22.5

1995
94.1
45.2
26.0
22.9

only through the mid-1980’s) the 1995 participation rate and
labor force for these women would be considerably higher
than in the middle scenario, about 9.6 million more persons,
or 7.3 percent. (See table 3.)
On the other hand, it is possible that the participation
rates for women ages 20 to 44 will not accelerate and instead
will continue the modest upward trend shown during the
1979-82 period. If this occurs, there would be 6.3 million
fewer persons (4.8 percent) in the 1995 labor force.
The two differences between the low, middle, and high
assumptions concerning female participation rates, are sub­
stantial. The high scenario reflects female participation rates
nearly converging to the higher male participation rates.
The low scenario reflects a sharp deceleration from the trends
of the T970’s. Over the 1979-82 period, the growth of
female rates slowed, possibly in response to the 1980 and
1981-82 recessions. However, it might also reflect a change
in the long-run trend. The low scenario, in essence, assumes
that the recent trends reflect new secular trends for women.
The low-growth path assumes a more modest growth
which is not a reversal of the upward growth in female
participation rates or shifts in marital status. For example,
regardless of which scenario is used, women should account
for 65 to 66 percent of increases in the labor force. This
stability occurs because increases in female participation
will be 4he greatest source of labor force growth over the
next decade.
A second demographic assumption in the middle scenario
concerns the relative trends in black-white participation.
Over the past two decades, the rates for black and white
men have been diverging. (The rates for black and white
women, on the other hand, appear to have converged, if
not crossed.) The low and middle scenarios assume these
respective trends will continue. The high scenario assumes
that the rates for black and white men will converge to the
higher white male rates. In the low scenario, black and other
minorities account for 25.8 percent of the increase in the
labor force over the 1982-95 period; in the high scenario,
23.9 percent; and in the middle scenario, 23.3 percent.

The drop (from 50 to 36 persons per hundred workers) in
the ratio attributed to the 16- to 64-year-olds reflects the
steady entry of women into the work force. The economic
dependency ratio for persons under age 16 has declined over
the 1960 to 1980 period, as the baby-boom generation and
women entered the labor market. During the next decade,
the ratio should be unchanged despite the “ echo” of the
baby boom, that is, the increase in the population attributed
to the children of the baby-boom generation. The ratio for
older workers is expected to rise slightly over the next de­
cade, and should continue to rise into the middle of the next
century; currently, their ratio is the lowest of the three groups.
These projected economic dependency ratios have several
implications. There will be fewer children per labor force
participant in the future, hence providing for primary and
secondary education should be less of a burden. On the
other hand, there will be more older persons not in the labor
force per labor force participant, therefore, providing for
retirement and the care of older workers should be slightly
more of a burden.

Alternative assumptions
The middle scenario just discussed reflects underlying
assumptions and could be significantly affected by changes
in these assumptions, b l s developed alternative projections
to examine the range of outcomes attached to any projection.
Two sets of alternative projections were developed for the
current projection: demographic alternatives and economic
alternatives. The following tabulations show the size of the
civilian labor force during 1970, 1980, and 1982
Civilian labor force (in millions)
1970

Total .............

1980

1982

82.8

106.9

110.2

and the projected size under each scenario for 1990 and
1995:

Economic alternatives. Labor force projections are only one
segment of the b l s projections program. The program in­
cludes gross national product projections, in total and by
major demand and income components; industry output and
employment projections; and occupational requirements
projections. To emphasize the uncertainty of these varied
projections, b l s traditionally develops several scenarios which
cover a number of alternative assumptions yielding a rea­
sonably broad span of employment and gross national prod­
uct level. The alternative projections of the economy as a
whole use different assumptions for fiscal policy, produc­
tivity growth, the unemployment rate, and the price level.
At issue in these alternatives is the relationship between
earnings and unemployment rates and labor force trends.
Would alternative economic trends imply substantially or

Civilian labor force (in millions)
1990

High demographic ..
131.3
High economic ........
125.3 to 125.4
Middle .................................
125.0
Low econom ic..........
123.7 to 124.9
Low demographic . . .
120.3

1995

141.0
131.9 to 132.8
131.4
130.0 to 131.0
125.1

Demographic alternatives. One assumption in the middle
scenario is that the growth in participation rates of women
ages 20 to 44 will accelerate in the near term (that is, recover
from the effects of the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions) before
tapering off. If the rate of female labor force participation
continues to accelerate through the late 1980’s (rather than




5

1982

modestly different labor force trends? According to the mod­
els, modest changes in the unemployment rate for all work­
ers and in real earnings of workers lead to relatively small
changes in the total labor force. (See table 4.)
Alternative projections of labor force trends have been
made with two econometric models. One, labeled the mar­
ital status model, focuses on the behavior of detailed labor
force trends.6 The second model, labeled the macro labor
force model, focuses solely on total labor force trends in
the context of a broader economic model.7 The methodology
for these economic scenarios is substantially different from
that used in other b l s labor force projections. The assump­
tions here are based on ecohometric models, while the other
alternatives were based on a demographic methodology.
The marital status model relates participation rates for 16
age, sex, and marital status groups to real earnings of full­
time workers by sex, and the overall unemployment rate.
The model was estimated with Standard Metropolitan Sta­
tistical Area data for 34 cities during the 1973— period.
80
The data are constructed from the micro files of the Bureau
of the Census’ Current Population Survey. The following
tabulation shows the unemployment rate and annual earn­
ings data used in the model.

Table 3.

5.4
6.3
6.5

5.2
6.0
6.8

$7,497
7,497
7,497

$8,698
8,905
8,941

$9,074
9,804
10,148

4,441
4,441
4,44 i

Real annual earnings
(1972 dollars):
Men
High .........................
Middle .....................
Low .........................
Women
High .........................
Middle .....................
Low .........................

1995

9.7
9.7
9.7

Unemployment rate:
All workers
High .........................
Middle .....................
Low .........................

1990

5,152
5,275
5,296

5,375
5,807
6,011

Developing the alternative scenarios with the marital sta­
tus model required two steps. First, a middle scenario of
labor force growth was developed for the 16 groups. This
middle scenario for the 16 marital status groups was con­
strained to replicate the middle scenario described earlier.
It was developed as in previous projections— extrapolating
historical trends. Second, the differences in the two ex­
planatory variables among scenarios were multiplied by the

Projections of the civilian labor force in 1995, by alternative dem ographic scenarios
Labor force (in thousands)
Labor group

P articip a tio n rate

scenario

M id d le
scenario

Low
scenario

Total, age 16 and over ..............................................

140,973

131,387

125,058

M e n........................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over ........................................................
Women ...................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over .......................................................

73,005
11,321
52,545
9,139
67,968

69,970
10,573
51,358
8,039
61,417

1 1 ,1 5 5

1 0 ,5 5 7

49,525
7,288

White ........................................................................
M en........................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over ........................................................
Women ...................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over ........................................................

High
scenario

M id d le
scenario

Low
scenario

72.7

67.8

64.5

44,852
6,008

67,541
10,013
50,130
7,398
57,517
9,792
41,964
5,761

79.4
79.8
95.5
40.1
66.7
75.7
86.9
24.2

76.1
74.5
93.4
35.3
60.3
71.6
78.7
19.9

73.5
70.6
91.2
32.5
56.5
66.4
73.6
19.1

119,560
62,451
9,463
44,815
8,173
57,109
9,330
41,384
6,395

112,393
60,757
9,271
44,232
7,254
51,636
9,025
37,433
5,178

107,170
58,839
8,755
43,406
6,678
48,331
8,316
35,097
4,918

72.5
79.2
80.8
95.7
40.2
66.4
77.9
87.0
24.1

68.1
77.0
79.1
94.5
35.6
60.0
75.4
78.7
19.5

65.0
74.6
74.7
92.7
32.8
56.2
69.5
73.8
18.6

Black and o th e r..........................................................
M e n........................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over ........................................................
Women ...................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over ........................................................

21,413
10,554
1,858
7,730
966
10,859
1,825
8,141
893

18,994
9,213
1,302
7,126
785
9,781
1,532
7,419
830

17,889
8,709
1,253
6,725
722
9,182
1,471
6,863
847

74.8
80.0
75.9
94.6
40.3
68.7
65.7
86.8
24.5

65.1
70.2
52.7
87.1
32.8
61.2
78.7
22.9

61.9
66.7
50.9
82.3
29.9
58.0
53.2
72.9
23.1

Black..........................................................................
M en........................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over ............ ..........................................
Women...................................................................
16 to 24 ............................................................
25 to 54 ............................................................
55 and over ........................................................

16,517
8,125
1,432
5,974
719
8,392
1,407
6,311
674

14,833
7,297
1,055
5,549
583
7,646
1,180
5,805
661

13,984
6,775
, 984
5,246
549
7,217
1,148
5,413
650

72.5
79.4
73.9
93.4
38.2
67.0
63.8
85.7
23.6

65.6
70.7
54.3
87.1
31.0
61.7
53.8
78.1
22.3

61.7
66.4
50.4
82.2
29.1
57.8
51.8
73.2
22.7




High

6

-

55.4

Table 4.

Civilian labor fore© by alternative economic scenarios, 1982 and projected to 1995
Participation rate

Labor force (in thousands)
Labor group

1982

High
scenario

kiddie
scenario

Low
scenario

130,977

64.0

68.0

67.8

67.6

69,867
4,047
24,619
11,062
13,557
19,401
14', 937
4.463
13,784
11,523
2,261
8,017

76.6
56.7
90.8
97.1
85.3
95.3
96.8
89.4
91.2
93.4
80.8
43.8

76.2
62.8
90.5
95.6
86.7
95.5
97.0
90.9
91.4
93.8
81.0
35.5

76.1
62.9
62.9
90.4
95.6

75.9
63.0
90.4
95.6

61,417
3,761
23,096
11,087
12,009
17,427
11,932
5,495
11,125
7,798
3,327
6,008

61,110
3,749
22,975
11,021
11,954
17,350
11,902
5,448
11,015
7,708
3,307
8,017

52.6
51.4
68.8
61.6
77.7
68.0
64.1
79.0
61.6
57.9
72.3
22.7

131,387

130,000

64.0

1982

High
scenario

Middle
scenario

Low
scenario

"total..........................................................................

110,204

131,887

131,387

Men .....................................................................
16 to 19 ............................................................
20 to 34 ............................................................
Married ..........................................................
Other ..............................................................
35 to 44 ............................................................
Married ..........................................................
Other ..............................................................
45 to 54 ............................................................
Married .........................................................
Other ..............................................................
55 and over .......................................................

62,450
4,470
21,385
14.212
12,185
12,781
10,321
2,460
9,784
8,320
1,464
9,019

70,101
4,032
24,647
11,071
13,576
19,497
14,971
4,527
13,847
11,553
2,295
8,076

69,970
4,043
24,635
11,071
13,564
19,446
14,956
4,490
13,807
11,531
2,276
8,039

Women ................................................................
16 to 19 ............................................................
20 to 34 ............................................................
Married .........................................................
Other ..............................................................
35 to 44 ............................................................
Married “......................................... ................
Other..............................-...............................
45 to 54 ............................................................
Married .........................................................
Other ..............................................................
55 and over .......................................................

47,755
4,056
17,128
10,592
10,279
9,651
6,723
2,928
7,105
4,993
2,111
6,073

61,786
3,777
23,224
11,160
12,064
17,526
11,968
5,557
11,282
7,927
3,356
5,976

Macro labor force model:
T o tal..........................................................................

110,204

132,800

Marital status model:

respective coefficients; then the products were added to ob­
tain the differences from the middle scenario.
For the marital status model, the range between the high
and low scenarios is only 900,000 persons in the total labor
force and .4 percentage points in participation rates. (See
table 4.) The groups most affected by the changes between
the scenarios are married women ages 45 to 54, nonmarried
women ages 35 to 44, married women ages 20 to 34, and
nonmarried men ages 45 to 54 and ages 35 to 44. The finding
that these groups are more sensitive than others to the changes
in economic trends is consistent with the slower trends in
participation rates during the 1979-82 period. The projected
labor force participation rates for these five groups are all
projected to change by between 1.0 and 1.7 percentage
points between the high and low economic scenario.
The macro labor force model relates the labor force par­
ticipation rate of all workers to the unemployment rate and*
real wages. As noted, the macro labor force model is part
of a large-scale quarterly macroeconometric model that al­
lows for interaction of labor force trends with employment,
labor productivity, and other trends.
For the macro labor force model, the range between the
high and low scenarios is 2.8 million persons and 1.4 per­
centage points in the total participation rates. The difference
between the high and low scenarios for the macro labor
force model, when compared to the marital status model,
reflects, in part, the interaction of labor force trends with
economic trends in the context of a macroeconometric mode!




86.6

86.6

95.1
96.8
89.6
90.9
93.5
79.8
35.2

60.7
58.5
82.3
80.8
83.6
83.2
81.8
86.5
70.5
68.4
76.0
19.9

60.3
58.3
81.8
80.3
83.2
82.8
81.5
85.6
69.5
67.3
75.3
20.0

60.0
58.1
81.4
79.8
82.9
82.4
81.3
84.8
68.8
66.5
74.9
20.0

66.9

67.8

67.1

95.3
96.9
90.2
91.1
93.6
80.3
35.3

and, in part, the structural differences between the two labor
force models.8
A comparison of the low and high economic scenarios
with the middle scenario indicates that changes in economicassumptions do not result in substantial changes in labor
force projections.
The most important finding across the four economic
scenarios is that projections with two strikingly different
labor force models yield small differences between the scen­
arios. By contrast, the difference between the high and low
demographic scenarios is 15.9 million in 1995. Thus, the
key factors in the size of the future labor force are demo­
graphic in nature.

Revisions reflect 198© census
Several factors necessitated updating the projections pub­
lished in 1980: revisions in the historical labor force esti­
mates, revisions in the projected population (which are used
in determining the size of the future labor force), and avail­
ability of labor force participation rates for the 1979—
82
period.9 The historical labor force data were revised to in­
corporate the 1980 census. The revised population projec­
tions reflect incorporation of the 1980 population estimates
and new, higher assumptions about life expectancy and net
migration, and new, lower assumptions about fertility lev­
els. These changes resulted in a larger projected population
for 1995, with 8.8 million more persons over age 16. The
new population projection alone would have raised the 1995

7

labor force orojections by 5.3 million persons (after ac­
counting for population shifts by age, sex, and race).
Offsetting the population growth is a lower projected change
in labor force participation rates. This reflects the 1979-82
changes in participation which were lower than those of
1962-79. The 1979-82 changes reflect both cyclical factors
and trend factors, such as an increased fertility after years
of steady decline. If the previously projected participation
rates were applied to the new population projections, the
1995 labor force would have been 132.4 million persons,
1 million more than the current projection. The most notable
change in projected participation rates occurred for women
ages 25 to 34, a group for which bls has consistently un­
derprojected participation. The rate for this group was low­
ered 2 percentage points in the current projection to 81.7
percent, compared with 83.7 percent in the previous pro­
jection. Still, participation for this group is expected to grow
13.7 percentage points over the 1982-95 period, the largest
projected increase for any labor group. Projected partici­
pation rates for several groups have been revised upward,
notably for men ages 35 to 54, and women 35 and older.
The following tabulation compares the previous and the
revised projections of the 1995 labor force:
1980
projection

1983
projection

Difference

127,542
67,611
59,931
109,292
18,250

131,387
69,970
61,417
112,393
18,994

3,845
2,359
1,486
3,101
744

Civilian labor force
(in thousands)...............
Men ..........................
Women ....................
White ........................
Black and o th e r___

1These projections replace those in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ The 1995
labor force: a first l o o k Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 1121. For an evaluation o f earlier projections, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr.,
“ How accurate were the 1980 labor force projections?” Monthly Labor
Review, July 1982, pp. 15-21.
2The labor force (civilian labor force and resident Armed Forces) is
projected to be 126,577,000 in 1990 and 133,018,000 in 1995. Of these,
57,415,000 will be women in 1990 and 61,582,000 will be women in
1995. Because there is no age or race detail in the resident Armed Forces
measure o f the labor force, this article is based on the civilian labor force.
3 As with other current bls presentations of data by race, this article
presents data for blacks; however, for historical comparison, data are also
presented for the black and other group, which also includes American
Indians, Eskimos, and other minorities.

1980
projection
Participation rate ........
Men .........................
Women ...................
White .......................
Black and other . . . .

1983
projection

68.6
76.8
61.2
68.8
67.0

67.8
76.1
60.3
68.1
65.7

Difference
- .8
- .7
- .9
- .7
- 1.3

B ased on bls ’ projections, several significant changes
in labor force trends are expected during the next decade:

The total labor force will grow more slowly during the
next decade than during the past decade.
© Women will account for a greater proportion of labor
force growth in the decade ahead (nearly two-thirds) than
they did over the past decade;
© Blacks and other minority groups will account for a greater
proportion of overall labor force growth, about one-quarter
during the next decade;
© The younger members of the labor force, ages 16 to 24,
will decline in absolute numbers.
© The number of prime-age members of the labor force,
those ages 25 to 54, will grow faster than the total labor
force, 1.0 percentage point per year faster.

o

These projections reflect the changing demographic struc­
ture of the U.S. population: the aging of the baby-boom
generation and the growth of the black population. These
general conclusions hold for several scenarios concerning
future trends in labor force participation for detailed groups,
although the specific projections differ.
□

Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 922 (Bureau of the Census,
1982).
6For illustrations of other uses of the marital status model, see James
E. Duggan, “ Labor force participation of older workers” Industrial and
Labor Relations Review, forthcoming; and James E. Duggan, “ Relative
price variability and the labor supply of married persons.” Both papers
are available from the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Pro­
jections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7 The macro labor force model is the labor force equation in the Chase
Econometric Model. For a description of the model, see Arthur J. Andreassen and others, “ Economic outlook for the 1990’s; three scenarios
for economic growth,” pp. 9-21.

4 For a short description o f the bls demographic labor force projection
methodology, see BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2134-1 (Bureau
o f Labor Statistics, 1982), Chapter 18; for a complete description, see BLS
Economic Growth Model System Used for Projections to 1990, Bulletin
2112 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1982), Chapter 2.

8 bls’ alternative scenarios of gross national product, industry output
and employment trends and occupational requirements use the macro labor
force model’s projections of total labor force. This was done because of
the small differences between the economic scenarios of labor force trends
and because the macro labor force is part of the macroeconometric model
of the economic projections.

5 Among the assumptions o f the Census Bureau’s projections of the
population is that the total fertility rate will rise from 1.83 in 1980 to 1.96
in 2000, and then will decrease to 1.90 in 2050; and that life expectancy
will rise from 78.3 in 1981 to 81.3 in 2005 for women, 70.7 to 73.3 for
men. See Projections of the Population of the United States: 1982 to 2050,

9 For a discussion of the revisions in labor force estimates due to the
1980 Census of the Population, see Kenneth D. Buckley, Jennifer Marks,
and Ronald J. Statt, “ Revisions in the Current Population Survey Begin­
ning in January 1982,” Employment and Earnings, February 1982, pp. 7 15.




Economic outlook for the 1990’s:
three scenarios for economic growth
Alternative monetary andfiscal assumptions
suggest quite different trends
in GNP and employment through 1995;
in all versions, growth tapers after 1988, reflecting
slower rates of population and laborforce increase
A rthur J. A ndreassen , N orman C. S aunders ,
B etty W. S u

and

spread in gross national product (gnp) and employment growth
to 1995.
By 1995, real gnp is projected to range between $2.1
and $2.3 trillion, with total employment between 123.6 and
134.1 million jobs. In all three versions, job and production
growth tapers during the latter part of the period, primarily
in response to slower projected rates of growth of the pop­
ulation and labor force.2 Following are historical and pro­
jected rates of growth for real gnp , real disposable income,
and employment:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared trend projec­
tions of growth in aggregate and industry demand for the
1982-95 period, updating prior projections to 1990 and
extending the analysis to 1995.1 The projections are part of
a Bureau program of studies aimed at analyzing mediumterm economic growth and the implications for the structure
of employment by industry and occupation. The new esti­
mates consist of a moderate-growth case, and high-growth
and low-growth alternatives, which examine the effects of
alternate policies on U.S. econom ic growth, distribution of
demand, and employment.
It should be noted that none of the three projections should
be favored as the most likely. The intent in preparing them
was not to forecast future economic performance but, rather,
to examine the implications of a reasonable range of demand
growth over the projection period. The projections represent
only three of many possible responses of the economy to
differing fiscal and monetary stimulae. A different perspec­
tive on the inner workings of the U.S. aggregate economy
could easily lead one to arrive at completely different results.
For this reason, the high-growth and low-growth alternatives
should not be viewed as the “ good” forecast and the “ bad”
forecast, but rather as vehicles for generating a reasonable

GNP

Employment

.
.
.
.

3.7
3.5
2.2
1.6

3.9
4.3
2.2
2.4

1.5
1.7
1.6
1.6

Low growth:
1982-90 ............. .
1990-95 ............. .

2.8
2.7

2.4
2.7

1.4
1.6

Moderate growth:
1982-90 ............. .
1990-95 ............. .

3.2
2.5

2.8
2.6

1.8
1.5

High growth:
1982-90 ............. .
1990-95 ............. .

3.8
2.5

3.2
2.7

2.3
1.7

Historical:
1955-68
1968-73
1973-77
1977-82

The authors are economists in the Office of Economic Growth and Em­
ployment Projections, Bureau o f Labor Statistics.




Disposable
income

9

.............
.............
.............
.............

box on pages 10-11 for a discussion of the model used to
develop the aggregate projections.)

In terms of the real rate of growth, the low-trend projections
are comparable to the 1973-82 experience, and the hightrend projection corresponds more to that of the 1960’s.
Following is a detailed discussion of the assumptions and
results of the moderate-growth alternative, both in terms of
aggregate economic activity and industry demand patterns.
A summary of the low-trend and high-trend results is in­
cluded. Other articles in this issue examine the b l s projec­
tions of labor force, industry output and employment, and
occupational demand.

Demographic. The middle-growth projections of U.S. pop­
ulation, developed by the Census Bureau, were chosen for
the moderate-growth scenario. The population age 16 and
over is projected to increase by 21.6 million between 1982
and 1995, an average annual rate of growth of 0.9 percent.
As in prior projections, the population rate of growth slows
over the projection horizon, dropping from 1.1 percent an­
nually between 1982 and 1988 to 0.8 percent each year
between 1988 and 1995.
The civilian labor force grows somewhat more rapidly
during the projection period, reflecting generally increasing
participation rates and the shift of persons into age categories
with traditionally higher labor force participation. The ci-

Moderate growth assumptions
To develop the moderate-growth projections, assump­
tions were made concerning demographics, fiscal and mon­
etary policy, foreign economic conditions, energy, and
miscellaneous items.3 Those variables having the largest
impact on the projections are discussed below. (Refer to the

BLS projections procedures
cification and expansion. After studying the problem, the deci­
sion was made to look to the private sector for a macro model
that would satisfy the needs of Bureau economists and that would,
at the same time, remove the burden of periodic data base main­
tenance and model reestimation from the Bureau staff. A model
of the size and complexity deemed necessary for an effective
evaluation of U.S. economic growth potential had required that
a significant proportion of staff time be allocated to such routine
maintenance. For this reason and because of staff and other re­
source limitations, a competitive procurement process was ini­
tiated in January 1982 and a contract was awarded to Chase
Econometrics Associates, Inc., in October 1982. Under the terms
of this agreement, the Bureau now uses the Chase macro model
to develop its projections.
The Chase model is a quarterly model of the U.S. economy,
and is composed of 312 behavioral equations and 275 identities,
thus determining 587 endogenous variables. In addition, the model
contains 110 exogenous variables. The model can be conve­
niently decomposed into 13 sectors: (1) consumption, (2) business
fixed investment, (3) residential investment, (4) change in busi­
ness inventories, (5) foreign trade, (6) Federal government,
(7) State and local government, (8) employment and hours,
(9) financial, (10) income, (11) wages and prices, (12) industrial
production, and (13) energy.
Assumptions are specified for the 110 exogenous variables.
The model is simulated and the results are analyzed for consis­
tency and reasonableness. Modifications to the exogenous var­
iables and to the behavioral relationships are incorporated into
the model until a reasonable set of results has been obtained.
For the industry output projections, the U.S. economy is dis­
aggregated to 156 producing sectors, an exhaustive grouping
which combines both the public and private sectors. The frame­
work for this procedure is an input-output model that is prepared
for a base period by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the
U.S. Department of Commerce. The first step at the industry
level is to disaggregate the g n p estimate from the aggregate
projections to a set of demands by industry. This projected in-

The Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares projections on a 2year cycle, using the Economic Growth Model System. This
system is composed of a group of separate but not unrelated
processes. Projections are produced in the following areas: (1) labor
force; (2) aggregate economic performance; (3) industry final
demand and total industry production; (4) industry employment
levels; and (5) occupational employment by industry. Each block
of the projections depends upon inputs from an earlier stage and
feeds logically into the next.
The labor force projections use Bureau of the Census popu­
lation projections by age, sex, and race, based on trends in birth
rates, death rates, and net migration. With the population pro­
jections in hand, b l s projects labor force participation rates—
the percent of each group in the population who will be working
or seeking work— for 64 age, sex, and race groups. The labor
force participation rate projection for each group is developed
by: (a) analyzing past rates of growth over the 1962-81 period
or for selected subperiods; (b) selecting the rate for a period
deemed most appropriate for each group; and (c) modifying that
rate if past trends are judged not likely to continue throughout
the entire projection period. The levels of anticipated labor force
are then calculated by applying the projected participation rates
to the Bureau of the Census population projections.
The aggregate economic projections or gross national prod­
uct, in total and by major demand and income category, use the
b l s labor force and Census population projections as inputs.
Consistent economic scenarios are developed to provide aggre­
gate controls for the various categories of demand and employ­
ment. These scenarios are selected to encompass a band around
likely growth of the economy in the future. Later stages of the
projection process develop industry-level projections consistent
with these aggregate data.
jj
The Bureau’s aggregate economic projections have, in the
past, been prepared with a modified version of the Thurow econo­
metric model of the U.S. economy. Following the last round of
projections, it was determined that the b l s macro model was
[ inadequate for further projections studies without major respe­




10

Nondefense purchases of goods and services in real terms
are expected to decline in the 1983-87 period, reaching
$35.8 billion in 1987, $1.8 billion below the 1982 level.
This reflects some employment declines, as well as general
cutbacks in operating funds for many programs. Nondefense
purchases are then assumed to grow, in real terms, by about
0.5 to 1.0 percent each year to 1990, and to accelerate
somewhat to the 2.5- to 3.0-percent range during the first
half of the next decade.
Social security benefit payments are expected to grow in
nominal terms at an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the 1982—
88 period, and by 7.1 percent each year between 1988 and
1995. No real benefit increases are assumed through 1988.
The growth in social security payments is generated by
inflation and by expanding client population only. After
1988, some resumption of real benefit growth is assumed,
on the order of 0.5 percent to 1 percent annually.

vilian labor force is projected to attain a level of 131.4
million by 1995, an increase of just under 20 million from
1982. This represents average annual growth of 1.6 percent,
1982-88, and 1.0 percent between 1988 and 1995. The
moderate-growth alternative uses the medium-growth pro­
jection of the civilian labor force discussed on pages 1-8
of this issue. The labor force projections in the low-trend
and high-trend versions were generated by the macro model
described on page 7.
Federal receipts and expenditures. General fiscal restraint
throughout the remainder of this decade is the basic char­
acteristic of the moderate-growth government expenditure
and tax policies. Federal defense purchases of goods and
services are assumed to increase at a real rate of 4.1 percent
each year between 1982 and 1986. Thereafter, growth is
assumed to drop to the 0.5- to 1.0-percent range to 1995.

dustry demand, in conjunction with a projected input-output ta­
ble, is used to calculate total industrial production. The projected
changes in input-output coefficients in the input-output model
capture— among other factors— expected changes in technology.
Finally, the employments necessary to produce those levels of
output are estimated through use of projected industry produc­
tivity.
Aggregate demand projections are available from the macro
model for 15 categories of consumption, 8 types of investment,
15 end-use categories of foreign trade, and 3 categories of gov­
ernment spending. Where possible, a further disaggregation of
the control values is undertaken: Purchases of producers’ durable
equipment is divided into 23 types of capital equipment. Gov­
ernment spending is grouped into 12 categories.
To allow for shifts in the composition of aggregate demand
and in the industrial makeup of a given demand category, “ bridge
tables” are projected. The bridge table is a set of percent dis­
tributions for each given demand category, such as one of the
consumption groups or investment, among each of the 156 in­
dustries in the b l s input-output model.
The projection of the input-output table accounts for the changes
in the input pattern for each industry. In general, two types of
changes are made: (a) those made to the inputs of a specific
industry after an industry study (as for the changes in inputs in
the aluminum industry); and, (b) those made to the inputs of all
industries for a specific commodity (as for increased use of busi­
ness services across a wide spectrum of industries). Output re­
quirements by industry are the result of multiplying the projected
input-output table by projected changes in level and distribution
of final demand.
The projected changes in industry output are important factors
determining the projections o f industry employment. However,
converting output projections into employment estimates requires
productivity-by-industry projections and measures of changes in
average hours by industry. This is accomplished using a regres­
sion model with an equation for each industry that estimates
worker-hours as a function of the following variables: (1) the
industry’s output, (2) capacity utilization, (3) the relative price
of labor, and (4) a technology variable as approximated by the
output/capital ratio. Worker-hours are then converted into jobs
by dividing by average annual hours, which are projected using




time trends. The sum of employment by industry is controlled
to total employment as estimated in the macro model. Several
iterations are usually necessary for a reasonable balance to be
achieved.
Projections of employment for the 156 sectors in the Economic
Growth Model are disaggregated to 372 industries corresponding
to the 3-digit Standard Industrial Classification (sic). This is done
to match the industry mix of the industry-occupation matrix de­
scribed later. The disaggregation is accomplished via a timeseries regression model. The disaggregated 3-digit sic industry
employment projections are reviewed in light of a broad range
of economic information. When the industry projections are con­
sidered final, they are used as inputs to the process of projecting
occupational employment.
One of the main resources in making occupational employment
projections is the industry-occupation matrix. This matrix is pro­
duced from data collected by State employment agencies and
brought together by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce
national estimates. The data are collected from employers on a
3-year cycle— manufacturing one year, nonmanufacturing the
next year, and the balance of nonmanufacturing (trade, trans­
portation, communications, and utilities) the final year. The data
from the 3-year cycle are put on the same employment basis to
form annual average estimates for occupational employment in
each of the 3-digit sic industries. The matrix contains over 1,500
detailed occupations, although most industries do not have em­
ployment in many of these occupations.
The major occupational cells of the industry-occupation matrix
for the base year are reviewed and adjustments are made to the
cells in the projected matrix to account for changes expected to
take place in the industries because of technological change,
product mix shifts, and other factors. The changes introduced
into the input-output model for expected technological change
may also change the staffing patterns in industries using the new
technology. (For example, one would expect greater general
employment of computer specialists as computer technology spreads
across industries.) The projected industry employment data are
applied to the projected industry occupational employment pat­
terns and the new cell employment is aggregated across all in­
dustries to yield total occupational employment for the projected
year.

11

Medicare payments, on the other hand, are expected to
grow at a 10.1-percent nominal rate over the 1982-88 pe­
riod, reflecting client population growth, higher-than-average medical care cost inflation, and some real benefit
increases, on the order of about 1 percent annually. After
1988, the medicare rate of growth drops to 8 percent an­
nually as inflation continues to moderate.
Unemployment insurance benefits decline sharply through
1990 as the economy recovers from the 1982 recession and
the number of unemployed drops. Some slight growth is
apparent after 1990 as the unemployment rate stabilizes.
Other transfer payments, including Federal retirement pro­
grams and veterans’ benefits, are expected to increase at a
nominal rate of 8.5 percent annually between 1982 and
1988, and at 7.9 percent during the 1988-95 period. Finally,
grants to State and local governments are assumed to grow
only with inflation during the entire period.
On the revenue side of the Federal government books,
projected personal tax rates reflect currently mandated tax
cuts and the indexation of personal taxes for the remainder
of the period. Corporate profits taxes are assumed to stabilize
at about 26 percent of profits for the entire projection period.
Indirect business taxes are expected to increase annually by
about 5.8 percent, while social insurance contributions are
governed by the currently mandated tax rates and income
base determination methods.
The net effect of these policies is a Federal budget deficit
(nipa basis) that declines steadily from $180 billion in 1983
to about $70 billion by 1990, and then remains at roughly
that level for the remainder of the projection period.

of our major trading partners. The following table sum­
marizes the assumed annual percentage rates of growth of
the variables in the macro model that reflect these consid­
erations:

M onetary policy. In the financial sector, 10 interest rates

E nergy. Domestic oil production, currently running at about

are derived, with the Federal funds rate providing the key
to the overall term structure of rates. The major assumption
affecting the determination of the Federal funds rate is the
rate of growth of the nonborrowed monetary base, excluding
currency. It is assumed that this variable will grow at a rate
close to 10 percent during 1983, dropping to about 7 percent
during the 1984-87 period, and then to the 5.5- to 6-percent
range for the remainder of the projection period. This reflects
an assumed willingness on the part of the Federal Reserve
Board to loosen up somewhat on monetary controls as t^e
economy recovers from the 1982 recession.
Also affecting the financial sector is the assumption con­
cerning the rate of growth of money-market related mutual
funds. This variable affects the distribution of the money
stock between the aggregate money supply measures Ml
and M2. Money-market funds are expected to increase at a
strong pace during the mid-1980’s (about 12 to 15 percent
annually), but this will taper in the late 1980’s and early
1990’s to about a 10-percent average rate of growth.

10 million barrels per day (mbpd ), is assumed to decline to
9.5 mbpd by 1987 and to remain at that level thereafter.
Petroleum imports, on the other hand, are expected to in­
crease steadily from 5.1 mbpd in 1982 to 7.8 mbpd in 1990
and 8 mbpd in 1995. The price of imported oil is assumed
to rise from the 1983 price of $28 per barrel to $41 in 1990
and to $52 by 1995. This rise is consistent with overall
inflation but does not reflect any real increase in the barrel
price of imported crude oil.
Affecting transportation-related demand for petroleum are
assumptions concerning the average miles-per-gallon of new
domestically produced autos, and the ratio of imports to
domestic autos. Mileage figures are assumed to improve
from the 1982 level of 26.7 mpg to 37.8 by 1990 and 41.7
by 1995. After declining to a more normal share of 24
percent in 1983, imported autos are expected to capture
more of the U.S. auto market, accounting for 30 percent of
domestic sales by 1990. The share is assumed to stabilize
through 1995 at that level.

Foreign econom ic conditions. Exports of domestically pro­

Implications off moderate growth

duced goods and services are influenced primarily by in­
ternational financial markets and by the economic condition

Real gnp is projected to increase at an average annual
rate of 3.2 percent over the 1982-90 period, reflecting re­




Industrial
production,
world

Wholesale
price index,
rest-of-world

Average
value
o f the
U.S. dollar4

Historical:
1968-73 .......
1973-77 .......
1977-82 ........

0.9
0.7

11.8
10.0

- 3 .0
2.4
3.3

Low growth:
1982-90 ........
1990-95 .......

3.0
2.9

8.8
7.9

1.6
0.0

Moderate growth:
1982-90 .......
1990-95 ........

3.2
3.1

8.3
6.9

2.1
1.3

High growth:
1982-90 .......
1990-95 .......

3.3
3.4

8.5
7.3

2.2
1.5

—

—

The assumed growth rates for industrial production appear
high from a historical perspective. The table is deceptive,
however, because the selected historical years are repre­
sentative of peak-to-peak periods in this country. The world
economy tends to lag the U.S. business cycle and, as a
result, the historical growth rates presented above are not
truly representative of long-term trend growth patterns. Gen­
erally, world industrial production has tended to increase at
a 2.5- to 3.5-percent rate during trend growth periods.

12

Over the coming decade, many of the factors that con­
tributed to the productivity slowdown are expected to im­
prove. As a result, the projections for productivity are quite
optimistic when compared to more recent experience. Pro­
ductivity in the private nonfarm sector is expected to in­
crease at a rate of 1.7 percent annually between 1982 and
1990 and by 1.4 percent each year during the 1990-95
period. Increases in manufacturing labor productivity are
expected to average 2.2 percent annually over the entire
period.
Developments related to employment and labor produc­
tivity are discussed by Valerie Personick elsewhere in this
issue.

covery from the 1982 recession. After 1990, gnp growth
moderates somewhat to an annual rate of 2.5 percent be­
tween 1990 and 1995 (table 1). This assumes a return to
the long-term trend growth path following the recovery and
the continuing slowdown in the rate of growth of the civilian
labor force. Following is a summary of the projection results
for each major sector of the economy.
Prices. Projections for price change are truly optimistic in
the moderate-growth scenario— at least compared to the
more recent experience:
Annual change, in percent

deflator

Personal
consumption
expenditures
deflator

Gross
private
domestic
investment
deflator

.......
.......
.......
.......

2.4
5.1
7.3
8.1

2.1
4.6
7.1
8.1

1.7
5.1
9.4
7.1

Moderate growth:
1982-90 .......
1990-95 .......

5.4
3.3

5.2
3.6

5.8
2.7

GNP

Historical:
1955-68
1968-73
1973-77
1977-82

Personal consumption. Consumer spending is the largest
component of gnp . In 1968, personal consumption expen­
ditures (pce) accounted for 60.0 percent of real gnp . The
share increased to 63.2 percent in 1981 and to 65.3 percent
in 1982. It should be noted that personal consumption ex­
penditures accounted for a large proportion of gnp in 1982
because of the rapid relative increase in the purchase of
services during a recessionary period. After returning to a
more normal share of gnp after 1983, consumer expendi­
tures are still expected to show a long-term upward trend,
reaching 65.2 percent of gnp in 1995. The increase is due
primarily to relatively higher disposable income and a slightly
lower savings rate, as well as to the smaller share of gnp
accounted for by government expenditures. Table 3 details
the projections of 15 major categories of consumer spend­
ing.
Because of price effects, new technology, the shifting
population mix, and new household formation, consumers'
behavior will exhibit some changes over the next decade.
Purchases of consumer durables are projected to grow very
strongly over the period— 5.1-percent average annual growth
from 1982 to 1990 and 2.9 percent each year, 1990-95.
All categories of durables are expected to increase strongly
in the early period of the projections, but the largest growth
is attributable to motor vehicles and to household appli­
ances. Generally speaking, durables purchases react quite
sharply to increasing inflation and to swings in the business
cycle because such purchases are easily put off until “ better
times.’’ Two major reasons for the strong durables growth
over the projection period are the greatly improved inflation
situation and the lack of business-cycle swings built into
the projection methods.
Purchases of motor vehicles and parts dropped dramati­
cally during the 1982 recession. Sales of new motor vehicles
were down 18 percent to 11.4 million units in 1980 and
dipped to 10.4 million units in 1982, the worst slump in 20
years. The drop in new-car sales was largely accounted for
by domestic autos, as imports continued to increase their
share of the market during the 1982 recession.
With cut-rate financing luring buyers, sales rebounded
sharply in the final months of 1982. Demand for motor

The moderation in inflation expectations is based on the
relatively modest rate of recovery projected from the 1982
recession. Demand growth accelerates at a pace readily
matched by production capacity, thus averting much of the
demand pressure on prices apparent during recoveries from
the 1969-70 and 1973-75 recessions. The 1981-82 reces­
sion also significantly dampened wage rate growth, a major
impetus to renewed inflation during earlier recoveries.
Employment and productivity. Civilian household employ­
ment is projected to increase by just over 24 million jobs
between 1982 and 1995, as the unemployment rate declines
from 9.7 percent in 1982 to 6.3 percent in 1990 and to 6.0
percent in 1995. (See table 2.) This represents average an­
nual growth in employment of 2 percent between 1982 and
1990 and of 1.1 percent between 1990 and 1995. There are
6.5 million new jobs in the goods-producing sector, and
17.3 million in the private service-producing industries.
For the private nonfarm sector, the long-term average
annual rate of productivity growth was 2.6 percent between
1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, this rate dropped
to 2.1 percent annually and even further, to 0.2 percent,
during the 1973-82 period. The slowdown in productivity
growth over the past decade has been attributed to many
factors, including the influx of new workers into the labor
force; slowing in capital accumulation per worker; emphasis
on nonproductive types of investment, such as pollution
control investment; and the remarkable increase in energy
prices since 1973.




13

Table 1.

G ross national product, 1968, 1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , 1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995

[Billions of 1972 dollars]
199 0
Item

1968

1973

197 7

1 99 5

1 982
High

Moderate

Low

High

Moderate

Low

Gross national product.................................

51,058.1

$1,255.0

$1,369.7

$1,485.4

$2,004.2

$1,915.5

$1,857.S

$2,264.6

$2,166.9

$2,126.7

Personal consumption................................
Durables .................................................
Nondurables............................................
Services .................................................

634.4
88.3
270.5
275.6

768.5
121.3
308.0
339.2

864.3
138.0
333.4
393.0

970.2
139.8
364.2
466.2

1,296.0
236.0
447.2
612.8

1,240.2
208.8
436.2
595.2

1,196.8
190.1
423.7
583.0

1,491.4
277.4
481.2
732.9

1,412.4
240.4
468.0
704.0

1,349.1
223.8
438.4
686.9

Gross private investment ............................
Equipment..............................................
Structures ..............................................
Residential..............................................
Inventory change.....................................

161.6
66.8
42.8
43.1
9.0

217.5
90.7
47.4
62.3
17.2

214.2
99.9
40.4
60.7
13.3

194.5
112.7
53.4
37.8
-9 .4

342.1
166.2
62.8
97.8
15.3

305.7
149.1
61.5
80.5
14.6

250.1
132.4
45.0
63.6
9.0

405.0
202.8
76.9
113.1
12.2

337.2
177.2
70.1
78.1
11.9

285.7
159.6
44.6
69.6
11.9

Net exports.................................................
Exports...................................................
Im ports...................................................

1.9
61.2
59.3

15.5
97.3
81.8

22.0
112.9
90.9

28.9
147.3
118.4

34.1
206.7
172.6

48.8
202.3
153.5

83.0
206.5
123.5

22.8
261.7
238.9

85.9
260.0
174.1

148.4
267.9
119.4

Government.................................................
Federal ...................................................
State and local .......................................

260.2
128.2
132.0

253.5
95.9
157.6

269.2
100.5
168.8

291.8
116.6
175.2

332.0
136.8
195.2

320.9
132.4
188.5

327.9
144.3
183.6

345.4
144.6
200.7

331.4
139.2
192.2

343.5
157.0
186.5

Gross national product................................

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Personal consumption................................
Durables .................................................
Nondurables............................................
Services .................................................

60.0
8.3
25.6
26.0

61.2
9.7
24.5
27.0

63.1
10.1
24.3
28.7

65.3
9.4
24.5
31.4

64.7
11.8
22.3
30.6

64.7
10.9
22.8
31.1

64.4
10.2
22.8
31.4

65.9
12.2
21.2
32.4

65.2
11.1
21.6
32.5

63.4
10.5
20.6
32.3

Gross private investment ............................
Equipment..............................................
Structures ..............................................
Residential...............................................
Inventory change.....................................

15.3
6.3
4.0
4.1
0.9

17.3
7.2
3.8
5.0
1.4

15.6
7.3
2.9
4.4
1.0

13.1
7.6
3.6
2.5
-0 .6

17.1
8.3
3.1
4.9
.8

16.0
7.8
3.2
4.2
.8

13.5
7.1
2.4
3.4
.5

17.9
9.0
3.3
5.0
.5

15.6
8.2
3.2
3.6
.5

13.4
7.5
2.1
3.3
.6

Net exports.................................................
Exports...................................................
Im ports...................................................

.2
5.8
5.6

1.2
78
6.5

1.6
82
6.6

1.9
99
8.0

1.7
10 3
8.6

2.5
10 6
8.0

4.5
11 1
6.6

1.0
11 6
10.5

40
1? 0
8.0

7.0
12 6
5.6

Government.................................................
Federal ...................................................
State and local .......................................

24.6
12.1
12.5

20.2
7.6
12.6

19.7
7.3
12.3

19.6
7.8
11.8

16.6
6.8
9.7

16.8
6.9
9.8

17.6
7.8
9.9

15.3
6.4
8.9

15.3
6.4
8.9

16.2
7.4
8.8

P ercent distribution

A verage annual rate of change (in percent)
Hiah
1 9 6 8 -7 3

1 9 7 3 -7 7

Low

M oderate

1977 82

Gross national product ................................

3.5

2.2

1.6

3.8

2.5

3.2

2.5

3.0

2.8

1990-95
2.7

Personal consumption ................................
Durables ................................................
Nondurables ...........................................
Services..................................................

3.9
6.5
2.6
4.2

3.0
3.3
2.1
3.7

2.3
0.3
1.8
3.5

3.7
6.8
2.6
3.5

2.8
3.3
1.5
3.6

3.1
5.1
2.3
3.1

2.6
2.9
1.4
3.4

2.9
4.3
1.9
3.2

2.7
3.9
1.9
2.8

2.4
3.3
0.7
3.3

Gross private
Equipment
Structures
Residential

investment..............................
..............................................
..............................................
..............................................

6.1
6.3
2.1
7.6

-0.4
2.4
-3.9
-0.6

-1.9
2.4
5.7
-9.0

7.3
5.0
2.1
12.6

3.4
4.1
4.1
2.9

5.8
3.6
1.8
9.9

2.0
3.5
2.7
-0 .6

4.3
3.5
2.1
5.7

3.2
2.0
-2.1
7.4

2.7
3.8
-0.2
1.8

Exports .......................................................
Imports.......................................................

9.7
6.6

3.8
2.7

5.5
5.4

4.3
4.8

4.8
6.7

4.1
3.3

5.2
2.6

4.5
3.0

4.3
0.5

5.3
-0 .7

Government ................................................
Federal ...................................................
State and local.........................................

-0.5
-5.6
3.6

1.5
1.2
1.7

1.6
3.0
0.8

1.6
2.0
1.4

0.8
1.1
0.6

1.2
1,6
0.9

0.7
1.0
0.4

1.0
1.4
0.7

1.5
2.7
0.6

0.9
1.7
0.3

1 9 8 2 -9 0

S

ource

:

1 9 9 0 -9 5

1 9 8 2 -9 0

1 9 9 0 -9 5

1 9 8 2 -9 5

1 9 8 2 -9 0

Historical data, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

down from the long-term trends is caused by continuing
relative price increases, a projected decline in the entry of
new drivers into the marketplace, and the assumption that
imports will continue to improve their competitive position
in this country. The following table summarizes purchase
data for motor vehicles, historically and projected.

vehicles and parts is expected to increase at a robust rate,
averaging 5.8-percent growth between 1982 and 1990. This
represents an increase in new domestic car sales to 8.6
million units by 1990. Although low by the standards of
the 1960’s and 1970’s, this is still well above the average
sales rate of 5.7 million domestic cars in 1982. The slow­




14

1968
V eh icles and parts as
a percent o f pce
(1 9 7 2 dollars) .........
N e w -v e h ic le s sales
(m illio n s o f units) . . .
N ew -ca r sales .........
D o m estic .............
Im ported ..............
N ew -ligh t-truck
sa les ......................
P ercent im port share,
n ew c a r s ....................

1973

1977

1982

1990

6 .3

7 .4

7 .3

5 .9

7 .3

7 .0

13.6
11.4
9 .6
1.8

14.6
11.1
9 .0
2.1

10.4
8 .0
5 .7
2 .3

16.6
12.4
8 .6
3 .7

16.1
12.0
8 .4
3 .6

2 .3

3 .5

2 .4

4 .2

4.1

15.5

18.7

2 8 .3

3 0 .0

are also expected to become increasingly important. Thus,
considerable growth of 4.2 percent annually in the 1982—
95 period is projected, much higher than the growth rate of
2.9 percent for total consumption during the same period.
Consumer purchases of nondurables are expected to ac­
count for progressively smaller shares of g n p throughout
the projection period. Nondurables accounted for 25.6 per­
cent of g n p in 1968. The share dropped to 24.5 percent in
1982 and is projected to decline further to 22.8 percent and
21.6 percent of g n p in 1990 and 1995, as nondurables grow
more in line with population than they did during the 1970’s.
Food consumption has been declining as a proportion of
total p c e over time, and it is expected to continue to do so
through 1995. As a family’s real income increases, the
percentage spent on food decreases. In 1982, purchases of
food accounted for 19.0 percent of p c e , while by 1995,
they are expected to decline to 15.8 percent. Particularly,
demand for restaurant meals is projected to grow more slowly
in the period than in recent years. During the last decade,
a rapid increase in the number of working wives helped to
boost restaurant sales. Female labor force participation is
projected to continue to rise over the projection period but
at a slower pace than during the last 10 years. Consequently,
purchased restaurant meals are projected to grow only at a
rate of 1.1 percent per year in the 1982-95 period, compared
with 2.8 percent between 1973 and 1979.
Average growth of 2.3 percent annually is projected for
purchases of clothing and shoes between 1982 and 1995,
compared with rates of 3.9 percent per year in the 1968—

1995

3 0 .0

—

9 .6
8 .6

1.0
—

10.7

Like the case for motor vehicles, the projected surge in
purchases of furniture and household appliances is attrib­
utable to recovery. With the expected upturn in construction
of new homes, demand for housing-linked items is expected
to increase rapidly, at a rate of 4.6 percent per year, between
1982 and 1990.
In addition to the housing-related demand growth, a new
boom in household appliances and furnishings, largely par­
alleling the 1950’s television experience, will feature con­
sumer electronics and a new wave of replacement demand.
Purchases of home computers and supplemental equipment,
such as printers and software, have exploded in the U.S.
marketplace; demand for such popular new products is fore­
seen to grow strongly in the next decade. Other new elec­
tronic products, such as compact audiodiscs, video cassette
recorders, and sophisticated electronic telephone systems,

Table 2.

Selected m acroeconom ic variables, 1963, 1973, 1977, 1982 and projected to 1990 and 1995
1 990
Item

197 7

1973

1968

1 99 5

1932
High

M oderate

Low

High

M o d erate

Low

GNP deflator (1972 = 100) .......................

82.5

105.7

140.0

206.9

341.1

315.9

303.5

483.7

372.1

341.8

Private nonfarm productivity.......................
Unemployment rate.....................................

86.6
3.6

95.2
4.9

100.1
7.1

100.0
9.7

116.1
5.4

114.6
6.3

114.0
6.5

125.3
5.2

122.7
6.0

120.9
6.8

Total employment (in millions) ..................
Government............................................
Private ...................................................
Farm ...................................................
Manufacturing.....................................
Service-producing ..............................
Other ...................................................

83,549
14,092
69,457
3,662
20,065
37,363
8,367

91,735
15,506
76,229
6,220
20,438
43,567
9,004

97,539
16,783
80,756
2,950
20,017
48,796
8,993

105,555
17,471
88,084
2,815
19,223
56,721
9,325

121,869
17,891
106,978
2,672
22,635
67,828
10,843

120,830
17,658
103,172
2,652
22,236
67,533
10,751

119,735
17,993
101,742
2,630
21,686
66,559
10,867

132,843
18,482
114,361
2,595
24,132
75,596
12,038

130,260
18,203
112,057
2,550
23,491
74,157
11,859

128,250
18,532
109,718
2,500
22,963
72,673
11,582

Average annual rate of change (in percent)
High
1 9 6 8 -7 3

1 9 7 3 -7 7

M o d erate

1 9 7 7 -8 2
1 9 8 2 -9 0

1 9 9 0 -9 5

1 9 8 2 -9 0

1 9 9 0 -9 5

Low
1 9 8 2 -9 5

1 9 8 2 -9 0

1 9 9 0 -9 5

GNP deflator (1972 = 100) .......................

5.1

7.3

8.1

6.5

7.2

5.4

3.3

4.6

4.9

3.4

Private nonfarm productivity.......................

1.9

1.3

0.0

1.9

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.2

Total employment.......................................
Government............................................
Private ...................................................
Farm ...................................................
Manufacturing.....................................
Service-producing ..............................
Other ...................................................

1.9
1.9
1.9
-2 .5
0.4
3.1
1.5

1.5
2.0
1.2
-2 .2
-0 .5
2.9

1.6
0.8
1.8
-0 .9
-0 .8
3.1
0.7

1.8
0.3
2.1
-0 .6
2.1
2.3
1.9

1.7
0.7
1.9
-0 .6
1.3
2.2
2.1

1.7
0.1
2.0
-0 .7
1.8
2.2
1.8

1.5
0.6
1.7
-0 .8
1.1
1.9
2.0

1.4
0.3
1.6
-0 .7
1.3
1.8
1.6

1.6
0.4
1.8
-0 .8
1.5
2.0
1.9

1.4
0.6
1.5
-1 .0
1.2
1.8
1.3

S

ource

:

-

0.0

Historical and projected employment data and projected price deflator, Bureau of Labor Statistics; historical price deflator, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




15

T able 3.

Personal consum ption expenditures by m ajor categories, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995

[Billions of 1972 dollars]
1 990
Category

Total ..............................................

1968

$634.4

1973

197 7

High

$768.5

1 99 5

198 2
Moderate

Low

High

Moderate

Low

$864.3

$970.2

$1,296.0

$1,240.2

$1,196.8

$1,491.4

$1,412.4

$1,349.1

107.0
52.5
41.5
35.0
236.0

90.3
48.3
37.5
32.7
208.8

80.7
43.8
34.6
31.0
190.1

118.1
64.6
51.2
43.5
277.4

98.2
57.4
45.1
39.7
240.4

87.1
55.1
43.8
37.8
223.8

Motor vehicles and parts ............................
Household appliances ................................
Household furnishings................................
Other durable goods ...................................
Total durables ................................

40.3
14.2
20.5
13.4
88.3

56.5
21.2
25.1
18.5
121.3

63.5
26.3
26.6
21.5
138.0

57.4
33.0
26.7
22.7
139.8

Food and beverages ...................................
Clothing and shoes.....................................
Gasoline and oil .........................................
Fuel oil and coal.........................................
Other nondurable goods..............................
Total nondurables............................

142.4
49.0
19.9
5.3
53.9
270.5

153.6
59.3
26.2
5.4
63.5
308.0

170.6
67.5
27.7
4.4
63.2
333.4

184.0
84.4
25.6
3.5
66.6
364.2

216.6
106.9
29.7
3.7
90.3
447.2

213.2
103.9
28.8
3.7
86.6
436.2

207.1
100.8
27.9
3.6
84.3
423.7

228.7
117.0
30.5
4.4
100.6
481.2

223.8
113.7
28.9
4.4
97.2
468.0

208.9
105.3
26.8
4.1
93.3
438.4

Housing services .......................................
Household electricity..................................
Household natural g a s ................................
Other household operations .......................
Transportation services ..............................
Other services ............................................
Total services...................................

93.5
9.6
5.9
23.4
23.4
119.7
275.6

118.2
13.0
6.4
28.0
28.5
145.1
339.2

141.3
16.0
6.5
32.6
32.7
163.9
393.0

171.3
18.3
6.6
38.6
31.7
199.6
466.2

215.2
25.5
5.3
55.0
45.0
266.7
612.7

212.7
24.6
5.1
52.9
42.4
257.5
595.2

209.8
24.1
5.0
51.4
41.0
251.8
583.1

249.3
30.0
5.2
68.9
55.1
324.3
732.8

247.7
28.4
4.7
64.0
50.1
309.1
704.0

245.1
27.2
4.5
61.3
47.9
300.9
686.9

Total ..............................................

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Motor vehicles and parts ............................
Household appliances ................................
Household furnishings................................
Other durable goods ...................................
Total durables ................................

6.4
2.2
3.2
2.1
13.9

7.4
2.8
3.3
2.4
15.8

7.3
3.0
3.1
2.5
16.0

5.9
3.4
2.8
2.3
14.4

8.3
4.1
3.2
2.7
18.2

7.3
3.9
3.0
2.6
16.8

6.7
3.7
2.9
2.6
15.9

7.9
4.3
3.4
2.9
18.6

7.0
4.1
3.2
2.8
17.0

6.5
4.1
3.2
2.8
16.6

Food and beverages ...................................
Clothing and shoes.....................................
Gasoline and o i l ..........................................
Fuel oil and coal..........................................
Other nondurable goods..............................
Total nondurables............................

22.4
7.7
3.1
0.8
8.5
42.6

20.0
7.7
3.4
0.7
8.3
40.1

19.7
7.8
3.2
0.5
7.3
38.6

19.0
8.7
2.6
0.4
6.9
37.5

16.7
8.2
2.3
0.3
7.0
34.5

17.2
8.4
2.3
0.3
7.0
35.2

17.3
8.4
2.3
0.3
7.0
35.4

15.3
7.8
2.0
0.3
6.7
32.3

15.8
8.1
2.0
0.3
6.9
33.1

15.5
7.8
2.0
0.3
6.9
32.5

Housing services .......................................
Household electricity...................................
Household natural g a s ................................
Other household operations .......................
Transportation services ..............................
Other services ............................................
Total services...................................

14.7
1.5
0.9
3.7
3.7
18.9
43.4

15.4
1.7
0.8
3.6
3.7
18.9
44.1

16.3
1.9
0.8
3.8
3.8
19.0
45.5

17.7
1.9
0.7
4.0
3.3
20.6
48.0

16.6
2.0
0.4
4.2
3.5
20.6
47.3

17.2
2.0
0.4
4.3
3.4
20.8
48.0

17.5
2.0
0.4
4.3
3.4
21.0
48.7

16.7
2.0
0.3
4.6
3.7
21.7
49.1

17.5
2.0
0.3
4.5
3.5
21.9
49.8

18.2
2.0
0.3
4.5
3.6
22.3
50.9

Percent distribution

Average annual rate of change (in percent)
High
1 968
73

1973-

77

M oderate

Low

19 7 7 -

82

198290

199095

198290

199095

198295

198290

199095

Total ..............................................

3.9

3.0

2.3

3.7

2.8

3.1

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.4

Motor vehicles and parts ............................
Household appliances ................................
Household furnishings................................
Other durable goods ..................................
Total durables ................................

7.0
8.4
4.1
6.7
6.6

3.0
5.5
1.5
3.8
3.3

-2 .0
4.6
0.1
1.1
0.3

8.1
6.0
5.6
5.6
6.8

2.0
4.2
4.3
4.4
3.3

5.8
4.9
4.3
4.7
5.1

1.7
3.5
3.8
4.0
2.9

4.2
4.4
4.1
4.4
4.3

4.3
3.6
3.3
4.0
3.9

1.5
4.7
4.8
4.0
3.3

Food and beverages ...................................
Clothing and shoes.....................................
Gasoline and oil ..........................................
Fuel oil and coal.........................................
Other nondurable goods..............................
Total nondurables............................

1.5
3.9
5.7
0.4
3.3
2.6

2.7
3.3
1.4
-5 .0
-0.1
2.0

1.5
4.6
-1 .5
-4 .5
1.1
1.8

2.1
3.0
1.9
0.6
3.9
2.6

1.1
1.8
0.5
3.5
2.2
1.5

1.9
2.6
1.5
0.6
3.3
2.3

1.0
1.8
0.1
3.5
2.3
1.4

1.5
2.3
0.9
1.7
2.9
1.9

1.5
2.3
1.1
0.2
3.0
1.9

0.2
0.9
-0 .8
2.6
2.0
0.7

Housing services .......................................
Household electricity..................................
Household natural g a s ................................
Other household operations .......................
Transportation services ..............................
Other services ............................................
Total services...................................

4.8
6.3
1.6
3.7
4.0
3.9
4.2

4.6
5.3
0.4
3.9
3.5
3.1
3.8

3.9
2.8
0.1
3.5
-0 .6
4.0
3.5

2.9
4.2
-2 .7
4.5
4.5
3.7
3.5

3.0
3.3
-0 .4
4.6
4.1
4.0
3.6

2.7
3.7
-3.1
4.0
3.7
3.2
3.1

3.1
2.9
-1 .6
3.9
3.4
3.7
3.4

2.9
3.4
-2 .5
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.2

2.6
3.5
-3 .4
3.6
3.3
2.9
2.8

3.2
2.5
-2 1
3.6
3.2
3.6
3.3

S

ource

:

Historical data are from table 2.5 of the National Income and Product Accounts Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




16

trast, demand for natural gas has continued to decrease.
This shift reflects diminished natural gas supplies and price
hikes that have caused electricity to become the principal
alternative energy source. During the past 2 years, retail
natural gas prices rose by 40 percent (in nominal terms) in
some parts of the Nation, and industry experts predict a
sharp rise of 16 percent for the 1984 winter heating season.
These trends of increased availability of electricity and de­
creased use of natural gas are expected to continue through
1995. Demand for electricity will grow 3.4 percent per year
in the 1982-95 period, while demand for natural gas will
fall at a rate of - 2 .5 percent.
Purchases of telephone and telegraph services by con­
sumers are expected to grow substantially over the projec­
tion span. This reflects the increased use of modern
communication systems, such as call-waiting and call-for­
warding services, long-distance calling and related telecom­
munication systems, and the computerized telephone. In
addition, cable television services have been expanding rap­
idly during recent years; spending on cable television ser­
vices in 1982 was more than triple that in 1977. This trend
is expected to continue in the next decade. Also contributing
to increasing relative expenditures for communications ser­
vices is the divestiture proceeding currently underway for
the major supplier of these services. Communications ser­
vices are projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 percent
between 1982 and 1995.
The large increases projected in medical care services are
affected by continued growth in the percentage of the pop­
ulation over age 65, who need more health care than the
general population, and by the increasing availability of
new, sophisticated, and expensive medical treatment equip­
ment. In addition, demand for medical services seems to be
relatively immune to the effects of price increases. Medical
spending is projected to grow to 8.3 percent of p c e in 1995,
compared to 7.0 percent in 1977.

73 period and 4.0 percent in the 1973-82 span. This rep­
resents real spending of $438 per person for clothing and
shoes in 1995, compared with $280 in 1973 and $363 in
1982. The baby boom of the fifties powered much of the
demand for clothing purchases of the sixties and seventies.
The baby bust of the sixties will mean, for the nineties, a
smaller proportion of the population in the 16- to 44-yearold group, accounting for 43 percent in 1995 versus 46
percent in 1982; individuals in this age group are major
purchasers of clothing and shoes.
Due to continuing conservation, the downsizing of cars,
and expected increases in relative energy prices, energy
consumption stays at low levels through 1995. In 1982, the
average miles-per-gallon for new domestic cars was 26.7,
while by 1995, this figure is expected to jump to 41.7.
Thus, only slight growth of 0.9 percent per year is projected
for gasoline and oil purchases in the 1982-95 period. Since
the energy crisis of the 1970’s, consumption of fuel oil and
coal for household heating and cooling has dropped sub­
stantially in response to relative price increases. Although
the downward trend is expected to reverse in 1984, con­
sumption will probably not return to its previous levels, at
least not in the projection period. Average annual growth
of 1.7 percent is projected for fuel oil and coal during the
1982-95 period.
Drugs and medical sundries is the only category of non­
durables expected to show rapid growth during the projec­
tion period. Because of continued demand growth and the
introduction of new kinds of products, a strong increase of
6.0 percent per year is projected between 1977 and 1995.
Consumer purchases of services have been becoming a
more important budget item historically, and this trend is
expected to continue to 1995. The growth of services pur­
chases is broadly based; with the exception of natural gas
purchases, ail categories of services are expected to increase
by at least 2.9 percent per year between 1982 and 1995
Consumer expenditures for housing, which include rent
paid by tenants and an imputed rental value of owner-oc­
cupied housing, have been an increasing share of total p c e
over time, rising from 14.7 percent in 1968 to 16.3 percent
in 1977, and to 17.7 percent in 1982. By 1995, housing
expenditures are expected to exceed food expenditures and
become the largest consumption category. The increase in
housing demand is in response to changes in household
formation rates— a trend toward single-person households,
and a decrease in family size from 3.0 persons in 1973 to
2.6 in 1982, and to 2.4 in 1995. Stable growth of 2.9 percent
per year in housing expenditures is projected for the 1982—
95 period.
Since the early 1970’s, demand for electric power has
increased, consistently outpacing growth in g n p . In con­




Investment. Gross investment is expected to continue to
exhibit its traditional volatility during the projection period.
Accounting for 17.3 percent of g n p in 1973, gross private
domestic investment ( g p d i ) accounted for only 13.1 percent
by 1982, primarily because of the disastrous effects of high
inflation and the recessions of the 1970’s and early 1980’s
on housing construction. By 1990, investment accounts for
16.0 percent of g n p , reflecting growing expenditures for
equipment and the projected housing recovery. The share
declines slightly to 15.6 percent of g n p by 1995 as housing
construction hits a plateau.
Equipment purchases are expected to grow at a 3.5-per­
cent rate between 1982 and 1995, well above the 2.4-percent
rate of the 1973-82 period. Although still well below the

17

tween 1982 and 1990, accelerating to 5.2 percent each year,
1990-95. By end-use categories, the expected growth is
broadly based, as depicted in table 4.
Merchandise exports are expected to grow at an annual
rate of 5.3 percent over the projection period, led by con­
sumer goods with average growth of 6.9 percent. In dollar
values, capital goods are expected to show the largest in­
creases— $24.2 billion, or nearly one-third of the total in­
crease. Growth in exports of consumer goods and capital
goods reflects the expectation that U.S. trade will move
toward developing countries in the long run because those
countries tend to require goods with higher technological
inputs, such as electronic computers and parts, aircraft and
parts, telephonic and other electrical apparatus, and medic­
inal and pharmaceutical preparations. By 1995, computers
are expected to be the leading export industry, reaching 5.3
percent of total exports with a growth rate of 8.4 percent
per year from 1977 to 1995. Exports of telephone and tel­
egraph apparatus show the highest annual rate of increase—
10.9 percent— over the 1977-95 period. The category of
food, feeds, and beverages will continue to account for a
sizable share of U.S. exports in coming years, but it will
grow at a slower rate. The following table highlights those
industries with the best expected export performance:

rate of growth of producers’ durable equipment ( p d e ) pur­
chases during the 1960’s, this has important implications
for productivity.
In terms of industries, computers and peripheral equip­
ment are projected to rise from 8 percent of producers’
durable equipment expenditures in 1977 to 20 percent in
1995. Despite the rapid growth by the computer industry
during the 1970’s, more is still expected, brought on by
advances in microchip technology. These developments
should continue to bring down the price of computers, mak­
ing them available to even the smallest businesses. Large
computers with speeds many times faster than the fastest
now available will find expanded uses, and will also be
purchased by large companies to replace existing equip­
ment.
Investment spending on motor vehicles and aircraft is
projected to grow less rapidly than total outlays for pro­
ducer’s durables as companies do little more than replace
equipment that wears out. Moderate growth in the agricul­
tural sector translates into moderate investment in farm ma­
chinery. D evelopm ents such as laser system s, data
communications, and electronic mail will result in rapid
growth in investment in radio and telephone equipment.
The nonresidential construction market suffered its set­
back in the mid-1970’s and has, to some extent, already
anticipated the recovery foreseen for the residential market.
Growth in nonresidential construction is expected to average
2.1 percent each year between 1982 and 1995. Growth of
expenditures for industrial structures is expected to exceed
5.0 percent annually over the entire period, more than off­
setting the very slow growth expected for commercial office
buildings.

Computers ..........................................
Food and feed grains .......................
A ircraft..........................................................
Electronic components ................................
Motor vehicles ..................................
The five fastest growing export
industries, 1977-95:

Housing. The residential construction market is projected
to recover strongly from its depressed condition of the last
several years. Private housing starts are expected to rise
from the 1982 level of 1.06 million units to a peak of 2.16
million in 1988. Thereafter, growth moderates and housing
starts stabilize at about 1.9 million units annually to 1995.
Hardest hit during the last several years have been single­
family housing starts. In 1982 and 1983, government sub­
sidy programs encouraged multifamily construction projects
and, as a result, multifamily starts constituted almost 37
percent of total starts in 1982. Projected stronger growth in
the single-family construction area means that one-unit houses
will account for 66.5 percent of starts, with multifamily
units dropping to 33.8 percent, by 1988. By 1995, single­
family starts are 65.8 percent of total starts. Mobile homes
are projected to grow at a rate of 5.9 percent annually,
1982-90, and at a 2.5-percent rate between 1990 and 1995.

5.3
4.2
3.6
3.4
3.3
Annual percent
growth rate

Telephone and telegraph apparatus.
Communications ..............................
Floor covering mills ....................................
Furniture and fixtures ..................................
Computers .....................................................

10.9
10.3
8.9
8.5
8.4

Imports are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.0
percent annually between 1982 and 1995. Merchandise im­
ports will exhibit more rapid growth of 3.8 percent. Over
the 1980-82 period, petroleum imports dropped by $1.8
billion, or 14 percent, as a result of both the U.S. recession
and continuing efforts to conserve energy. Increasing im­
ports of petroleum during the projection period result from
falling domestic production and some increase in demand.
Domestic oil production is expected to continue to decline
somewhat, dropping from 9.9 million barrels per day in
1982, and stabilizing at 9.5 million by 1990. In real terms,
the barrel price of oil is assumed to reach $52 by 1995, a
price rise which is accounted for by general inflationary
expectations. Thus, overall demand for petroleum tends to
increase without the price constraints evident during the

Exports and imports. The assumption that our major trading
partners will recover strongly from the current worldwide
recession underlies the strong growth projected for U.S.
exports of goods and services— 4.1 percent annually be­




Percent
o f total
exports

The five largest export industries,
1995:

18

TabS© 4.

Foreign trade by end-use categories, 1068,1973,1977,1982, and projected to 1990 and 1995

[Billions of 1972 dollars]

<
0

1968

1973

1977

1982

Net exports .......................................................
Net merchandise ............................................
Net services ...................................................

$ 1.9
-1 .9
3.8

$15.5
1.5
14.0

$ 22.0

$ 28.9
1.7
27.2

$ 34.1

Total exports .....................................................
Merchandise ...................................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages.......................
Industrial supplies and materials ................
Capital goods, excluding autos.....................
Automobiles................................................
Consumer goods.........................................
Other goods ................................................
Services.........................................................

61.2
39.0
5.5
12.3
13.3
4.1
2.7

97.3
61.2
9.7
17.1
21.3
6.4
4.4
2.3
36.1

112.9

Total imports .....................................................
Merchandise ..................................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages.......................
Industrial supplies, excluding petroleum . . . .
Petroleum and petroleum products..............
Capital goods, excluding autos....................
Automobiles and parts ................................
Consumer goods.........................................
Other goods................................................
Services.........................................................

59.3
40.9
6.5
14.0
2.8
3.9
5.4

90.9
67.1
6.9
17.8
9.0
9.0

1.4
18.5

81.8
59.7
7.4
16.5
6.6
7.2
8.9
11.4
1.7
22.1

Total exports .....................................................
Merchandise ...................................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages.......................
Industrial supplies and materials ................
Capital goods, excluding autos.....................
Automobiles................................................
Consumer goods.........................................
Other goods................................................
Services..........................................................

100.0
63.7
9.0
20.1
21.7
6.7
4.4
1.6
36.4

100.0
62.9
10.0
17.6
21.9
6.6
4.5
2.4
37.1

100.0

Total imports .....................................................
Merchandise ...................................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages.......................
Industrial supplies, excluding petroleum . . . .
Petroleum and petroleum products..............
Capital goods, excluding autos.....................
Automobiles and p a rts ................................
Consumer goods..........................................
Other goods.................................................
Services..........................................................

100.0
69.0
11.0
23.6
4.7
6.6
9.1
11.5
2.4
31.2

100.0
73.0
9.0
20.2
8.1

100.0
73.8
7.6
19.6

1.0

22.3

6.8

1995

1990

Category

High

Moderate

Low

High

Moderate

Low

10.5
16.8
24.1
7.9

6
.1

2.6
44.9

10.6

12.5
1.5
23.8

$ 22.8

42.3

-21.5
44.3

$ 85.9
28.9
57.0

$148.4
72.9
75.6

206.7
118.7

202.3
119.8

206.5
125.7

33.8
39.6
1.3
12.9
4.0

34.6
40.9
7.9
12.5
3.9
82.5

35.3
43.6
9.7
13.1
3.9
80.9

261.7
146.5
30.1
41.3
45.4
7.2
17.5
4.9
115.2

260.0
158.7
28.3
45.1
52.6
10.5
17.6
4.6
101.3

267.9
171.9
28.4
45.9
59.5
13.9
19.6
4.6
96.0

118.4
79.7
7.2
16.3
5.1
18.9
11.5
17.9
2.9
38.7

68.0

-8.2

$ 83.0
35.8
47.2

147.3
81.4
14.5
21.7
28.4
5.4
7.4
4.0
65.9

0.9
21.1

$ 48.8
7.7
41.1

172.6
126.9
12.5
25.8
9.5
28.3
17.0
30.1
3.7
45.7

153.5

123.5
89.9
10.3
20.4
8.4
16.9
12.5
17.8
3.7
33.6

238.9
168.0
14.7
29.0
13.3
44.1

174.1
129.8
13.2
23.3
12.7
29.6
17.1
29.7
4.2
44.3

119.4
99.0
10.7
20.7
12.5
19.2
16.1
15.6
4.2
20.4

100.0

100.0

100.0
61.0
10.9
17.3

100.0

21.1

88.0

20.1

112.1
11.5
22.8
8.9
24.9
14.9
25.4
3.7
41.4

20.1

20.1

42.6
4.2
70.9

Percent distribution

S

ource

:

100.0
55.3
9.8
14.7
19.3
3.7
5.0
2.7
44.7

8.8

9.9
9.9

10.9
13.9
2.1
27.0

11.7
13.8
1.7
26.2

100.0

100.0
67.3
6.1
13.8
4.3
16.0
9.7
15.1
2.4
32.7

60.2
9.3
14.9
21.3
7.0
5.4
2.3
39.8

100.0
73.5
7.2
14.9

57.4
10.2
16.4
19.2
3.5
6.2
1.9
42.6

5.5

16.4
9.8
17.4
2.1
26.5

100.0
59.2
9.9

17.1

20.2
3.9
6.2
1.9
40.8

100.0
73.0
7.5
14.9
5.8
16.2
9.7
16.5
2.4
27.0

60.9
9.7
17.1
21.1
4.7
6.3
1.9
39.2

100.0
72.8
8.3
16.5
6.8
13.7
10.1
14.4
3.0
27.2

56.0
11.5
15.8
17.3
2.8
6.7
1.9
44.0

100.0
70.3
6.2
12.1
5.6
18.4
8.4
17.8

1.8

29.7

64.2
10.6
17.1
22.2
5.2
7.3
1.7
35.8

20.2

4.0
6.8
1.8
39.0

100.0
74.6
7.6
13.4
7.3
17.0
9.8
17.1
2.4
25.4

100.0
82.9
9.0
17.3
10.5
16.1
13.5
13.1
3.5
17.1

Historical data are from tables 4.2 and 4.4 of the National Income and Product Accounts Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

1970’s. Petroleum imports are projected to grow at a rate
of 7.3 percent per year between 1982 and 1995.
Imported cars held their own during the 1981-82 reces­
sion. Sales of imports were at 2.3 million units in 1982,
accounting for 28 percent of all new-car sales. By 1995,
annual automobile imports are projected to reach 3.6 million
units, or 30 percent of all domestic sales. Average growth
of 3.1 percent per year is expected over the 1982-95 period.
Two other categories of imports— capital goods, except
autos, and consumer goods— are expected to grow at rates
of 3.5 percent and 4.0 percent respectively from 1982 to
1995. In capital goods, electronic equipment and compo­
nents and business equipment will contribute most of the
increase; in consumer goods, nondurable goods imports such
as apparel will strengthen total growth. Imported apparel is
expected to reach 22 percent of total output (domestic output
plus imports) in 1995 versus 11 percent in 1977. Industrial
supplies, however, are expected to grow more slowly,
achieving a yearly rate of 2.8 percent in the 1982-95 period.
The net result of these projections is a steady increase in
real net exports over the period, from $29 billion in 1982




to $86 billion in 1995, boosting the gnp share of net exports
from 1.9 percent to 4.0 percent between those years.
Government. More than half of government purchases are
from the service industries, as indicated in the following
distribution of 1977 government purchases less sales, by
industry:

Source industry
Total ...................
Agriculture, mining,
and maintenance
construction.......
M anufacturing........
Transportation,
communications,
and public
utilities ...............
Trade .......................
Other services ........

19

Federal
government
Defense Nondefense

State and local
government
Education

Other

100.0

100.0

100.0

1.5
34.1

- 1 .7
27.2

4.2
11.2

5.2
13.5

4.0
0.9
59.5

3.6
2.3
68.6

3.5
- 2 .7
83.7

5.6
2.3
73.4

100.0

rate of 7.8 percent each year between 1982 and 1995 as
compared to the moderate-growth expenditures increase of
6.7 percent.
Real g n p grows at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent
during 1982-85, a 0.6-percent higher rate than in the mod­
erate version. Between 1990 and 1995, g n p rises at the
same rate in both the moderate- and high-growth alterna­
tives— 2.5 percent annually. This is due primarily to the
much higher rate of import growth in the high-trend version
which tends to mask greater increases in the other categories
of g n p . The g n p in 1995 is about $98 billion higher than
in the moderate-growth case.
Major demand differences are in purchases of consumer
durables ($37 billion higher), producers’ durable equipment
($25 billion higher), and in residential investment ($35 bil­
lion higher). As noted above, greater income growth in this
version leads to higher levels of imports, while exports are
virtually unchanged. Net exports are therefore lower by $63
billion than in the moderate-growth projection. Finally, higher
rates of income growth mean greater government revenues,
which lead to a balanced Federal budget in 1990.
In the high-trend alternative, the distribution of demand
as compared to the moderate version shows no change in
the share going to government. Personal consumption ex­
penditures at the total level show little difference, masking
the fact that durables increase at the expense of nondurables
and services. This follows from the assumption of easier
money and lower interest rates, which are major induce­
ments to purchase durables. Lower interest rates also lead
to a larger share of g n p going to equipment investment and
construction. Increased purchases from manufacturing as a
result of higher government, durable goods, equipment, and
construction purchases are more than cancelled by the large
increase assumed for imports. The drop in the export share
of g n p is partially reflected in a slight decline in the agri­
cultural industries share.

Federal employment in both the defense and nondefense
areas is assumed to show little growth through 1995. With
a steady level of armed forces, compensation falls from one
half of defense purchases in 1977 to little more than onethird in 1995. The remainder of defense purchases are mainly
from manufacturing industries, and it is in this area that
healthy growth is expected. Computers and peripheral
equipment purchases will more than triple, while those for
radio and communications equipment (which includes las­
ers) are projected to more than double. Other defense-related
industries such as ordnance, missiles, aircraft, ships, and
electronic components will account for much of the rest of
the purchases.
Only moderate growth is expected in State and local gov­
ernment purchases between 1977 and 1995 as a result of
the completion of the highway construction program; the
slowdown in Federal grants-in-aid, outside of health; slower
growth in the school-age population compared to the in­
crease through the early 1970’s; and diminished citizen ex­
pectations from government. Because most State and local
purchases are for compensation, the expected moderate growth
has only minor impacts on other industries. In general, State
and local government purchases are expected to mirror the
rest of the economy in the industries affected.

Alternatives to moderate growth
The high-growth and low-growth versions of the projec­
tions vary the assumptions regarding fiscal and monetary
policy. By 1995, real g n p ranges between a low of $2,127
billion and a high of $2,265 billion, accompanied by un­
employment rates of 6.8 percent and 5.2 percent for the low
and high, respectively. Each of the alternatives is summa­
rized below and estimates from these scenarios are presented
with the moderate-growth projections in tables 1 and 2.
High growth. The major assumption in the high scenario is
that the Federal Reserve Board pursues a less restrictive
monetary policy than in the moderate growth projections.
The assumption is that the Board of Governors allows more
rapid monetary growth in order to bolster recovery from the
1981-82 recession and to sustain a higher trend growth over
the long run.
This less-restrictive monetary policy, coupled with stronger
demand growth, leads to somewhat different inflation ex­
pectations. The implicit g n p deflator increases at an annual
rate of 6.5 percent between 1982 and 1990, 1.1 percent
faster than in the moderate-growth version. However, in­
stead of decelerating after 1990, implicit deflator growth
begins to pick up, running at 7.2 percent annually to 1995.
This is comparable with the rate of inflation during the
1973-77 period.
No real differences were assumed for fiscal policy in the
high-growth projection. The higher inflation rates do, how­
ever, result in government expenditures growing more rap­
idly throughout the period. Federal expenditures rise at a




Low growth. This alternative simulation assumes higher
levels of government spending, especially in defense, but
also in transfers and grants. Federal expenditures grow at a
rate of 9.4 percent each year between 1982 and 1990 and
at. 7 percent during the 1990-95 period. This compares to
7.5-percent and 6.1-percent growth over the same periods
in the moderate-growth scenario. Defense growth is about
1.5 percent higher each year between 1982 and 1988, re­
flecting somewhat higher staff levels and greater expendi­
tures on goods. Transfer payments are higher in every
category, with the major increase in social security and
medicare. As a result of the more aggressive (or less con­
trolled) fiscal policy, the Federal Government runs deficits
of about $200 billion for the remainder of the decade, with
only modest tapering after 1990 to about $160 billion by
1995.
In addition, the monetary authorities are assumed to be
generally more restrictive in order to hold down inflation.

20

Both Ml and M2 grow at about 0.6-percent-lower rates than
in the moderate-growth projections. As a result, both short and long-term interest rates are pushed higher, remaining
in the double-digit range over the entire forecast period.
The high interest rates and severe competition for funds
in the credit markets limits the growth of demand, especially
for durable items. Real g n p is $40 billion lower in 1995
than in the moderate-growth case. Personal consumption
expenditures are lower by $63 billion and gross private
investment is off by $52 billion from the 1995 moderategrowth levels. In a situation analogous to that in the highgrowth case, the slower growth in income lowers imports
by $55 billion, thus masking, to some extent, the full impact
on the domestic economy. Reduced income growth only
exacerbates the Federal deficit situation, despite assumed

personal tax hikes during the mid- and late-1980’s. Damp­
ened capital goods spending leads to lower productivity and
job growth over the entire period.
Different assumptions in the low-growth case cause minor
variations in the level of g n p , but large internal shifts, as
compared to the base case. Tight monetary policy leads to
higher interest rates with the expected retarding effect on
consumers’ and producers’ durable goods and on construc­
tion— sectors that purchase heavily from manufacturing.
However, because imports are assumed to grow at a much
slower rate, and defense spending at a faster rate, than g n p ,
the adverse impact of low demand on manufacturing is
alleviated. And lower consumer expenditures and invest­
ment do cause trade to represent a larger share of g n p . [ j

1
As part of a continuing program to assess the validity o f bls projections,
a future article will evaluate the projections of the U.S. economy for 1980.
For previous articles see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ The 1995 labor force:
a first look,” M o n th ly L a b o r Review , December 1980, pp. 11-21; Norman
C. Saunders, “ The U.S. economy through 1990— an update,” M o n th ly
L a b o r Review , August 1981, pp. 18-27; Valerie A. Personick, “ The out­
look for industry output and employment through 1990,” M o n th ly L a b o r
R eview , August 1981, pp. 28-41; Max L. Carey, “ Occupational em­
ployment growth through 1990,” M o n th ly L a b o r R eview , August 1981,
pp. 4 2 -55; and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ How accurate were the 1980

labor force projections?,”




21

M o n th ly L a b o r R eview .

July 1982, pp. 15-21.

2P r o je c tio n s o f the P o p u la tio n o f the U n ite d States: 1982 to 2050.
C u rre n t P o p u la tio n Reports,

Series P-25, No. 922 (U.S. Bureau o f the

Census, 1982).
3 Tables detailing the major assumptions underlying the aggregate pro­
jections will be included with reprints of this article.
4 Trade-weighted average value of the dollar
major U.S. trading partners.

vis-a-vis

the currencies of

The job outlook through 1995:
industry output and employment projections
Recovery is expected in construction and
durable goods, but services will continue
to lead job growth; several heavy industries
will not reach past peaks because changing
markets and technologies will dampen expansion
V a l e r ie

A.

P e r s o n ic k

duction in these sectors, but productivity improvements and
technological change will limit job expansion.
Despite manufacturing’s gains, most new job growth is
projected to take place in service-producing industries, as
it has in the past. Service-producing industries— broadly
defined as transportation, communications, public utilities,
trade, finance, insurance, real estate, other services, and
government— are projected to account for almost 75 percent
of all new jobs between 1982 and 1995.
Within the service-producing sector, the miscellaneous
or other service component is projected to continue to grow
the fastest. Industries such as medical care, business ser­
vices, professional services, hotels, personal services, and
nonprofit organizations are projected to account for more
than 1 of 3 new jobs over the projection span, compared
with 1 of 6 for manufacturing industries. In addition, the
miscellaneous service sector is expected to have smoother
job growth than manufacturing. Because miscellaneous ser­
vice industries were less impacted by the cyclical downturn,
they will not be as dramatically affected by the anticipated
economic upswing, leading to smoother employment growth.
These findings are from the Bureau’s most recent eco­
nomic and employment projections for the years through
1995. This study of industry output and employment is one
in a series of four; the others describe projections of the
labor force, gross national product and the distribution of
final demand, and employment by occupation.1

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest projections of industry
output and employment indicate that contrary to several
popular reports the decade of the 1990’s will not see the
demise of America’s smokestack industries. A sizable por­
tion of the recent factory job loss can be attributed to the
1980-82 recessionary period, and as the economy recovers,
heavy manufacturing industries should increase employ­
ment. Job gains in manufacturing will account for almost
1 of 6 new jobs between 1982 and 1995. (See table 1.)
Manufacturing, which represented 25 percent of all jobs in
1959 but less than 19 percent in 1982, is projected to main­
tain this steady share throughout the 1982-95 period. (See
table 2.)
Because manufacturing job gains primarily reflect a re­
bound from the low recession levels, much of the growth
occurs in the early part of the projection span. About 3
million jobs are projected to be added to factory employment
by 1990, but only about 1.3 million between 1990 and 1995.
Furthermore, despite the recovery, employment in several
key manufacturing industries (for example, autos and steel),
is not expected to reach previous peaks, at least not by
1995. A turnaround in demand is projected to boost pro-

Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth
and Employment Projections. Karen J. Horowitz, an economist in the same
Office, contributed the section on technology and changing demand.




22

Tafole 1.

Projected job growth, 1982-95

[ In t h o u s a n d s ]

Because of the unlimited range of actual outcomes in the
future, three alternative projections to 1995 were prepared
with an eye to suggesting a range of possibilities. These
three scenarios, characterized as low growth, moderate
growth, and high growth, assume various patterns of eco­
nomic change. Because they are based on a few specific
assumptions about macroeconomic variables, they do not
represent the actual bounds to output and employment in
1995. Rather, they show what might happen under alter­
native responses of the economy to changes in fiscal and
monetary policies.2
Unless otherwise noted, this article discusses the mod­
erate growth projection. This case is marked by a period of
recovery from the 1982 recession, followed by stable eco­
nomic growth through the mid-1990’s. The civilian un­
employment rate, which was 9.7 percent in 1982, is projected
to fall to 6.3 percent by 1990, and then dip slightly to 6.0
percent by 1995. Total employment is expected to rise from
102.3 million in 1982 to 127.6 million by 1995, a gain of
more than 25 million new jobs. Growth is projected to be
faster in the earlier years, as industries rebound from the
recent economic downturn. Employment, which expanded
by 3.6 percent a year between 1975 and 1979, showed very
few gains during the business slump of 1980 or the brief
recovery period thereafter. The more severe recession of
1981-82 brought an additional 1.3-percent decline in total
jobs. Employment is projected to rebound, averaging growth
of 1.8 percent a year from 1982 to 1990, then slow to 1.5
percent annually through 1995.
The slowdown in employment reflects not only the di­
minishing of the initial surge caused by recovery but, even
more significantly, a continuing slowdown in the rate of
growth of the labor force.3 Following the rapid expansion
of the 1970’s, labor force growth has begun to taper as the
last members of the baby-boom generation reach working
age. The slowdown is projected to continue through the
1980’s and 1990’s, as the decrease in births between 1960
and 1975 will cause an absolute decline in the number of
potential new workers ages 16 to 24. The labor force, which
grew 2.3 percent a year between 1970 and 1982, is projected
to grow 1.6 percent a year to 1990, and 1.0 percent a year
thereafter.
Workn’eek. Somewhat offsetting the effects of slower labor
force growth on job creation is the projection of the work­
week. Average weekly hours are projected to continue their
long-term downward trend. In the short run, average weekly
hours, especially in manufacturing, are used to respond to
the pressures of the business cycle. At the beginning of an
economic downturn, employers cut back on overtime hours
before laying off workers, and as the economy improves,
overtime hours are added and the workweek extended before
new employees are hired. This recovery will be no excep­




23

Industry

1982-95
New
Percent
jobs
of total

Total new
jo b s................... 25,248

1982-90
New
Percent
jobs
of total

1990-95
New
Percent
jobs
of total

100.0

16,000

100.0

9,248

100.0

6,548
-265
122
2,434
4,257
3,170
1,087

25.9
-1 .0
.5
9.6
16.9
12.6
4.3

4,350
-163
39
1,472
3,002
2,224
778

27.2
-1 .0
.2
9.2
18.8
13.9
4.9

2,198
-102
83
962
1,255
946
309

23.8
-1.1
.9
10.4
13.6
10.2
3.3

Service-producing: 18,700
Transportation,
public utilities
1,094
Trade ................ 6,009
Finance,
insurance, and
real estate. . . . 1,786
Services........... 8,673
Private
households. . . -289
Government. . . . 1,427

74.1

11,650

72.8

7,050

76.2

4.3
23.8

659
3,819

4.1
23.9

435
2,190

4.7
23.7

7.1
34.4

1,214
5,246

7.6
32.8

572
3,427

6.2
37.1

-1.1
5.7

-235
947

-1 .5
5.9

-5 4
480

- .6
5.2

Goods-producing:
Farm...................
M ining..............
Construction. . . .
Manufacturing. . .
Durable.........
Nondurable. . .

tion. The factory workweek is projected to expand from
38.9 hours in 1982 to 39.8 hours by 1984; thereafter, the
long-term decline will resume, with manufacturing hours
averaging 38.8 by 1995. Hours in nonmanufacturing will
drop even more rapidly, reflecting both declines in the full­
time workweek as well as increases in part-time employ­
ment. For the private nonfarm economy as a whole, average
weeklv hours are projected to fall from 35.1 in 1982 to 33.1
in 1995.
Productivity. Output per worker hour, or productivity, is
projected to return to rates of growth more characteristic of
the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. Between 1968 and 1973,
output per hour in the private nonfarm sector grew by 2.0
percent a year. Over the same span, employment and real
gross national product also enjoyed rapid growth— 2.1 per­
cent for jobs and 3.5 percent for g n p . This period of ex­
pansion was followed by years of declining productivity.
Between 1973 and 1979, productivity grew by only .9 each
year, and between 1979 and 1982 the rate dropped further,
to .4 percent. This decline is expected to be reversed, how­
ever, as new capital investment, strong demand growth, and
more efficient utilization of the slowly growing labor force
all contribute to a resurgence in productivity. Output per
hour is expected to climb to a 1.6-percent annual growth
rate during the 1982-90 period, and then grow at a 1.3percent annual pace between 1990 and 1995.
For manufacturing alone, productivity gains are projected
to be just as dramatic. A 2.2-percent annual rise is projected
between 1982 and 1995, compared with 1.5 percent over
the 1973-79 period and .7 percent during 1979-82.
It should be noted that rising productivity does not nec­
essarily mean layoffs— as noted, 4.3 million new factory
jobs will be added between 1982 and 1995. Productivity
advances can be accompanied by employment growth, as
the general level of production expands, g n p is projected

Table 2.

Actual and projected employment by major sectors, 1959-95
E m ploym ent (in thousands)
1 990

Sector
195 9

196 9

1 995

1982

197 9

Low

M oderate

High

Low

M o d erate

High

T o tal..............................................
Farm ..........................................
Nonfarm.....................................

67,705
5,491
62,214

82,401
3,495
78,906

102,211
2,861
99,350

102,315
2,815
99,500

116,943
2,630
114,313

118,315
2,652
115,663

119,399
2,672
116,727

125,251
2,500
122,751

127,563
2,550
125,013

130,299
2,595
127,704

Government............................
Federal ..............................
State and local ..................
Private ...................................
Mining................................
Construction.......................
Manufacturing.....................
Durable .........................
Nondurable.....................
Transportation and public
utilities............................
Trade ................................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate..............................
Services..............................
Private households..............

8,083
2,233
5,850
54,131
612
3,825
16,985
9,560
7,425

12,195
2,758
9,437
66,711
501
4,386
20,469
12,081
8,388

15,947
2,773
13,174
83,403
704
5,903
21,406
12,989
8,417

15,803
2,739
13,064
83,697
742
5,491
19,234
11,326
7,908

16,830
3,202
13,628
97,483
775
7,020
21,686
13,218
8,468

16,750
2,989
13,761
98,913
781
6,963
22,236
13,550
8,686

17,060
3,096
13,964
99,667
760
7,052
22,635
13,871
8,764

17,180
3,163
14,017
105,571
842
7,798
22,963
14,286
8,696

17,230
2,960
14,270
107,783
864
7,925
23,491
14,496
8,995

17,760
3,139
14,621
109,944
844
8,004
24,132
14,965
9,167

4,304
13,245

4,718
16,704

5,534
22,352

5,543
22,536

6,152
25,885

6,202
26,355

6,287
26,649

6,488
27,764

6,637
28,545

6,746
28,859

2,923
9,663
2,574

3,864
13,747
2,322

5,523
20,258
1,723

5,899
22,617
1,635

7,021
27,501
1,443

7,113
27,863
1,400

6,667
28,225
1,392

7,607
30,814
1,295

7,685
31,290
1,346

7,788
32,203
1,368

Percent distribution
1990
1959

196 9

1 99 5

1982

1979

Low

M oderate

High

Low

M od e ra te

High

Total..............................................
Farm ..........................................
Nonfarm.....................................

100.0
8.1
91.9

100.0
4.2
95.8

100.0
2.8
97.2

100.0
2.8
97.2

100.0
2.2
97.8

100.0
2.2
97.8

100.0
2.2
97.8

100.0
2.0
98.0

100.0
2.0
98.0

100.0
2.0
98.0

Government............................
Federal ..............................
State and local ..................
Private ...................................
Mining................................
Construction.......................
Manufacturing.....................
Durable .........................
Nondurable .....................
Transportation and public
utilities............................
Trade ................................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ..............................
Services..............................
Private households..............

11.9
3.3
8.6
80.0
.9
5.6
25.1
14.1
11.0

14.8
3.3
11.5
81.0
.6
5.3
24.8
14.7
10.2

15.6
2.7
12.9
81.6
.7
5.8
20.9
12.7
8.2

15.4
2.7
12.8
81.8
.7
5.4
18.8
11.1
7.7

14.4
2.7
11.7
83.4
.7
6.0
18.5
11.3
7.2

14.2
2.5
11.6
83.6
.7
5.9
18.8
11.5
7.3

14.3
2.6
11.7
83.5
.6
5.9
19.0
11.6
7.3

13.7
2.5
11.2
84.3
.7
6.2
18.3
11.4
6.9

13.5
2.3
11.2
84.5
.7
6.2
18.4
11.4
7.1

13.6
2.4
11.2
84.4
.6
6.1
18.5
11.5
7.0

6.4
19.6

5.7
20.3

5.4
21.9

5.4
22.0

5.3
22.1

5.2
22.3

5.3
22.3

5.2
22.2

5.2
22.4

5.2
22.1

4.3
14.3
3.8

4.7
16.7
2.8

5.4
19.8
1.7

5.8
22.1
1.6

6.0
23.5
1.2

6.0
23.5
1.2

5.6
23.6
1.2

6.1
24.6
1.0

6.0
24.5
1.1

6.0
24.7
1.0

Average annual rate of change
1 9 8 2 -9 0
1 9 5 9 -6 9

1 9 6 9 -7 9

1 9 9 0 -9 5

1 97 9 82
Low

M oderate

High

1 9 8 2 -9 5

Low

M oderate

High

Low

M od e ra te

High

Total ..............................................
Farm ..........................................
Nonfarm.....................................

2.0
-4 .4
2.4

2.2
-2 .0
2.3

.0
- .5
.1

1.7
- .8
1.7

1.8
- .7
1.9

1.9
- .6
2.0

1.4
-1 .0
1.4

1.5
- .8
1.6

1.8
- .6
1.8

1.6
- .9
1.6

1.7
- .8
1.8

1.9
- .6
1.9

Government ............................
Federal................................
State and local.....................
Private ...................................
M ining................................
Construction .......................
Manufacturing .....................
Durable............................
Nondurable .....................
Transportation and public
utilities ............................
Trade...................................
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ..............................
Services..............................
Private households..............

4.2
2.1
4.9
2.1
-2 .0
1.4
1.9
2.4
1.2

2.7
.1
3.4
2.3
3.5
30
.4
.7
.0

- .3
- .4
- .3
.1
1.8
-2 4
-3.5
-4.5
-2.1

.8
2.0
.5
1.9
.6
31
1.5
1.9
.9

.7
1.1
.7
2.1
.7
30
1.8
2.3
1.2

1.0
1.5
.8
2.2
.3
32
2.1
2.6
1.3

.4
- .2
.6
1.6
1.7
2J
1.2
1.5
.5

.6
- .2
.7
1.7
2.0
2.6
1.1
1.4
.7

.8
.3
.9
2.0
2.1
26
1.3
1.5
.9

.6
1.1
.5
1.8
1.0

.7
.6
.7
2.0
1.2

.9
11
.9
2.1
1.0

1.4
1.8
.7

1.5
1.9
1.0

1.8
2.2
11

.9
2.3

1.6
3.0

.1
.3

1.3
1.7

1.4
2.0

1.6
2.1

1.1
1.4

1.4
1.6

1.4
1.6

1.2
1.6

1.4
1.8

1.5
19

2.8
3.6
-1 .0

3.6
4.0
-2 .9

2.2
3.7
-1 .7

2.2
2.5
-1 .6

2.4
2.6
-1 .9

1.5
2.8
-2 .0

1.6
2.3
-2.1

1.6
2.3
- .8

3.2
2.7
-.3

2.0
2.4
-1 .8

2.1
2.5
-1 .5

22
28
-1 .4

N

o te:

Data include wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family workers.

to grow 2.9 percent a year between 1982 and 1995, com­
pared with 3.1 percent during the 1969-79 period, and .1
percent during the 1979-82 period. However, it is expected
that new labor-saving technologies will cause shifts to occur
among industries, with many of the old-line factory jobs
giving way to new industries and occupations.




Technology and changing demand. Labor-saving technol­
ogies are not the only cause of employment shifts among
industries. Another determinant obviously is the demand for
an industry’s products. It is useful to separate aggregate
demand into two categories— final demand and intermediate
demand. Final demand includes consumer expenditures,

24

Most machinery is becoming smaller and being built with
less steel. This change is reflected in the inputs to most
industries, but causes a secondary impact on the demand
for iron ore and coal.
Other changes in intermediate demand are not expected
to be as large as those just described. The age structure of
the population and health concerns are likely to cause some
changes in the kinds of foods consumed and how they are
packaged— less sugar and salt, more microwave and frozen
foods. Food and beverages will be packaged more in plastic
and paper products, less in metal cans. Plastics are likely
to become even more commonplace and used in a multitude
of new ways, as their cost comes down and durability im­
proves. The radial tire and lower annual car mileage should
slow down the domestic tire industry. As consumers keep
their cars longer, maintenance and repair of vehicles will
increase.
A continuation in the substitution of synthetic fibers for
natural fibers (cotton and wool) in clothing and textile prod­
ucts is projected, although this trend is expected to slow.
Also projected is a change in how the advertising dollar
is spent in the future. There will be a drop in the proportion
spent on newspaper advertising, and an increase in that spent
on radio and on commercial and cable television. This goes
along with the closing of many afternoon newspapers, as
the trend to watching news on television increases.

government purchases, investment in capital equipment and
structures, exports, and imports. Intermediate demand refers
to purchases necessary in the production process; for ex­
ample, final demand by consumers for cars leads to inter­
mediate demand by auto producers for steel, glass, plastic,
and so forth.
Intermediate demand changes over time for several rea­
sons. New technology is but one. Other reasons include
substitutions necessitated by the changing relative prices of
inputs, or scarcity of inputs, or changes in the relative dis­
tribution of goods which the industry produces.
Many times, a large increase or decline in demand for
one product of an industry can have an impact on the sup­
plying industries, even when the technology is not changing.
When this demand change is coupled with a change in the
production process, the impact can be even larger.
The energy crisis of the 1970’s has led to some of these
changes. As gasoline became more expensive, and the Con­
gress mandated better fuel efficiency in domestic cars, the
inputs to the production of autos changed. Cars became
smaller, taking less steel (and lighter weight steel). Spare
tires were replaced with smaller tires, and electronic ignition
systems and “ computers” were added to make cars more
fuel efficient. Also, businesses were forced to be more en­
ergy efficient. Over time, they reduced their demand for
electricity, gas, and oil by replacing older machines with
more efficient models, renovating heating systems, and in­
creasing building insulation.
Some changes occurred because of new technologies, and
because these technologies were becoming more affordable.
Advances in electronic components and computer chips made
small business computers more prevalent and personal com­
puters and video games quite common in private homes.
Although this is reflected mainly as a final demand change,
these same electronic components led to “ smarter” ma­
chinery, which can do more. This trend will accelerate in
the 1980’s— most types of machinery are projected to in­
clude electronic components in the future.
Changing intermediate demand also affects the projection
of miscellaneous business services. Many firms contract out
for the services of this industry—computer software and
services, mailing and reproduction services, building ser­
vices, and personnel, management, and public relations ser­
vices. As the demand for computers grows, obviously the
demand for software will also grow. Businesses are finding
that it is more efficient to get specialized services from
professionals, instead of trying to do everything in-house.
Another growing component in business overhead is tele­
phone communications. Firms have become increasingly
dependent on telephone communication as business travel
became more expensive and establishments more geograph­
ically spread out. As the capability of computers to “ talk”
to one another expands, this should become even more
important. We have only begun to see the advances which
are possible in this industry.




Output and employment: selected industries
Many industries are projected to show very rapid output
and employment growth over the next several years but, for
a lot of them, growth mainly represents a catchup following
the severe 1980-82 recessionary period. (See table 3.) A
list of the top 10 growth industries for the 1982-95 period
illustrates how the recession and its subsequent recovery
can impact the long-range growth outlook. (See table 4.)
Several industries are on the list solely because their 1982
level of output or employment was so drastically reduced,
and not because they are expected to be the high-growth
industries of the I980’s. Examples are iron and ferroalloy
ores mining (1982 output was half the 1981 level and em­
ployment less than two-thirds), and new construction. In
addition, other industries not on the fastest-growing list may
have faster growth rates projected for the years from 1982
to 1990 as they recover from recession, but their overall
1982-95 rate is projected to be lower than those industries
on the list. Examples are chemical and fertilizer mining,
fabricated metal stampings, engines and turbines, material
handling equipment, household appliances, and miscella­
neous transportation equipment.
New construction, along with the motor vehicle industry,
actually led the recent downturn, as high inflation and in­
terest rates constricted purchases of new homes and new
cars. As the recession spread to supplier industries and to
other areas of the economy, high unemployment and re­
sulting concern over job security added to consumers’ re-

25

Table 3.

Gross product by major sector, actual and projected, 1959-95
B illio ns of 1 9 7 2 dollars
1995

199 0

Sector
195 9

196 9

197 9

198 2

otal private .....................................................
Farm ............................................................
Nonfarm ........................................................

$629.5
27.8
601.7

$951.9
29.5
922.4

$1,326.4
34.2
1,292.2

Mining........................................................
Construction..............................................
Manufacturing............................................
Durable .................................................
Nondurable............................................
Transportation and public utilities ..............
Transportation.......................................
Communications ...................................
Public utilities .......................................
Trade . .'...................................................
Wholesale..............................................
Retail.....................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ...........
Services.....................................................
Government enterprises ............................
Private households.....................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy . .

13.3
45.5
171.2
100.9
70.3
55.4
29.9
11.5
14.0
115.4
42.0
73.4
98.5
76.9
11.8
6.7
7.0

18.2
55.8
277.2
170.3
106.8
92.6
43.4
23.8
25.3
173.6
70.6
103.0
152.9
121.4
16.8
5.8
8.1

20.8
58.2
367.0
223.4
143.6
140.0
56.3
49.0
34.7
250.7
106.5
144.2
229.4
184.1
21.2
3.6
17.2

Low

M o d erate

High

Low

M o d erate

H igh

$1,329.4
39.0
1,290.4

$1,690.0
40.6
1,649.4

$1,753.8
41.6
1,712.2

$1,838.4
41.9
1,796.5

$1,976.8
41.8
1,935.0

$2,001.3
43.1
1,958.2

$2,113.3
43.4
2,069.9

21.6
47.7
336.1
197.4
138.7
138.9
46.8
57.2
34.9
248.0
106.3
141.7
251.0
205.6
21.6
3.1
16.8

24.3
56.3
448.4
280.7
167.7
192.8
60.7
91.2
40.9
297.8
126.5
171.3
325.4
260.4
23.2
2.8
18.0

25.1
64.3
470.4
296.1
174.3
203.3
63.6
97.5
42.2
314.9
132.6
182.3
340.9
270.7
24.0
2.9
-4 .3

25.3
73.2
490.7
312.3
178.4
213.0
66.0
103.5
43.5
332.4
140.0
192.4
351.5
283.5
24.9
3.0
-1 .0

26.4
63.1
535.5
344.8
190.7
234.3
71.4
117.5
45.4
336.2
142.4
193.8
384.6
303.3
24.5
2.6
24.5

27.0
73.8
548.7
353.4
195.3
239.7
73.0
120.3
46.4
353.1
147.8
205.3
391.4
307.8
25.3
2.8
-11.4

27.3
86.5
572.6
372.7
199.9
251.9
76.1
127.8
48.0
376.3
157.6
218.7
405.5
323.9
26.6
3.0
-3 .7

A verage annual rate of change
1 9 9 0 -9 5

1 9 8 2 -9 0
1 9 5 9 -6 9

Total private .....................................................
Farm ............................................................
Nonfarm .......................................................
Mining.......................................................
Construction..............................................
Manufacturing............................................
Durable ................................................
Nondurable............................................
Transportation and public utilities ..............
Transportation.......................................
Communications ...................................
Public utilities .......................................
Trade .......................................................
Wholesale..............................................
Retail.....................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate ...........
Services.....................................................
Government enterprises ............................
Private households.....................................
Rest of world and statistical discrepancy . .
1Not computable.
S ource:
Historical data are from the

U .S .

1 9 6 9 -7 9

Low

M oderate

High

Low

M od e ra te

High

Low

M o d erate

High

4.2
.6
4.4

3.4
1.5
3.4

0.1
4.5
- .0

3.0
.5
3.1

3.5
.8
3.6

4.1
.9
4.2

3.2
.6
3.2

2.7
.7
2.7

2.8
.7
2.9

3.1
.6
3.2

3.2
.7
3.3

3.6
.8
3.7

3.2
2.1
4.9
5.4
4.3
5.3
3.8
7.5
6.1
4.2
5.3
3.4
4.5
4.7
3.6
-1.4
1.5

1.3
.4
2.8
2.8
3.0
4.2
2.6
7.5
3.2
3.7
4.2
3.4
4.1
4.3
2.4
-4 .7
7.8

1.3
-6 .4
-2 .9
-4 .0
-1 .2
- .3
-6 .0
5.3
.2
- .4
-.1
- .6
3.0
3.8
.6
-4 .9
- .8

1.5
2.1
3.7
4.5
2.4
4.2
3.3
6.0
2.0
2.3
2.2
2.4
3.3
3.0
.9
-1.1
.9

1.9
3.8
4.3
5.2
2.9
4.9
3.9
6.9
2.4
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.9
3.5
1.3
- .9
(1)

2.0
5.5
4.8
5.9
3.2
5.5
4.4
7.7
2.8
3.7
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.1
1.8
- .3
(1)

1.7
2.3
3.6
4.2
2.6
4.0
3.3
5.2
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.5
3.4
3.1
1.1
-1 .4
6.4

1.5
2.8
3.1
3.6
2.3
3.3
2.8
4.3
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.8
2.6
1.1
- .8
-21.3

1.5
3.4
3.1
3.6
2.3
3.4
2.9
4.3
2.0
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.7
1.3
- .3
-29.9

1.6
2.2
3.6
4.4
2.5
4.1
3.3
5.7
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.4
3.3
3.0
1.0
-1 .2
2.9

1.8
3.4
3.8
4.6
2.7
4.3
3.5
5.9
2.2
2.8
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.2
1.2
- .9
(1)

1.9
4.7
4.2
5.0
2.8
4.7
3.8
6.4
2.5
3.3
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.6
1.6
- .3
(1)

Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

taper to 1.9 million by 1995.
While new housing construction was in a severe slump,
maintenance and repair construction was buoyant. As one
might expect, the inability to purchase a new house led
many consumers to renovate their present dwellings. In
addition, high oil prices and energy tax credits resulted in
substantial investments in energy conservation measures.
The output of maintenance and repair construction (almost
two-thirds of which is for residences) rose 4.6 percent a
year from 1979 to 1981, more than three times as fast as
its long-term expansion rate of 1.5 percent. Employment
dropped in 1982 as the industry succumbed to the general
economic recession. A turnaround is projected, with the
output of maintenance and repair construction projected to
grow 2.2 percent a year through 1995.
Unlike new residential construction, nonresidential con­
struction suffered a setback in the mid-1970’s, and has al­
ready begun the recovery anticipated for homebuilding. A
2.1-percent growth rate is projected for nonresidential con­
struction between 1982 and 1995. Growth of industrial

luctance to make major spending commitments. Investment
in residential construction and motor vehicle production each
dropped by almost a third between 1979 and 1982.
Employment is projected to fare better in 1983 and suc­
ceeding years. As unemployment falls and the economy
recovers, many durable goods industries will at first rebound
strongly and then eventually resume long-term growth pat­
terns. Some sectors, however, will not be able to recover
to long-term growth paths, as changing markets and tech­
nologies crimp expansion. (See table 5 for employment by
industry.)
Recovery in construction. Housing starts plunged from 2
million units in 1978 to fewer than 1.1 million in 1982, the
result of high interest rates which drove many families out
of the market for a new home. Pent-up demand will spur
new home sales as interest rates fall, but by the late 1980’s,
a slowdown in the rate of new household formation will
dampen these demand pressures. New housing starts are
projected to climb steadily to 2.2 million by 1988, but then




1 9 8 2 -9 5

1 9 7 9 -8 2

26

at 3.6 million units, or 30 percent of all new car sales after
1989, as more foreign automakers open plants in the United
States.
Flat demand after the recovery period, foreign competi­
tion, and new automated methods of production do not bode
well for employment in the auto industry. Only 127,000 of
the 284,000 jobs lost between 1979 and 1982 are projected
to be recovered by 1990. After 1990, employment increases
will be moderate through 1995. The projected 1995 level
of 860,000 jobs for the motor vehicle industry falls short
of the 1 million peak recorded in 1978.

structures such as plants and utilities will exceed 5 percent
a year, while commercial buildings and other structures will
grow much more slowly.
Total employment in new and repair construction peaked
at 5.9 million in 1979, but fell to 5.5 million in 1982. The
job picture will brighten as the industry recovers, with em­
ployment projected to reach 7.9 million by 1995. Growth
will be faster between 1982 and 1990, rising 3.0 percent a
year, then taper to a 2.6-percent annual rate between 1990
and 1995.
Construction-related industries. Output and employment
trends in many construction-related industries mirror the
patterns just described. Logging, sawmills, planing mills,
and other wood product industries, which are heavily de­
pendent on residential construction, suffered sizable output
and employment losses between 1979 and 1982. These in­
dustries as a group took a 20-percent job cutback over that
period. As residential construction improves, jobs in wood
products industries should reappear. Employment is pro­
jected to grow 2.0 percent a year from 1982 to 1990 and
.6 percent a year during the 1990-95 period. Almost all the
growth is projected to be in millwork and plywood shops.
Employment in logging, sawmills, and planing mills, which
had been declining slightly even before the recession, will
hold about level.
Most other construction-related industries will also show
recovery from 1982’s depressed levels. Included in this
group are stone and clay products, fabricated structural metal,
electric lighting and wiring, household appliances, furni­
ture, and mobile homes. Most of the rebound occurs by
1988 or 1989, after which growth tapers off.

High-tech industries, b l s has developed three definitions of
high technology industries based on the utilization of work­
ers in technology-oriented occupations and on expenditures
for research and development.4 In addition, some judgments
were made to include or exclude industries based on the
major product or activity of the industry. Whichever defi­
nition is used, employment in high technology industries is
projected to increase faster than total employment between
1982 and 1995; however, the contribution of high-tech in­
dustries to total job growth will be relatively small. Under
the broadest of the three definitions, high-tech industries
account for 17 percent of all new jobs between 1982 and
1995; under the second definition, they account for 8 per­
cent; while under the narrowest definition, they represent
slightly more than 3 percent. These ratios are about in line
with the industries’ share of new jobs over the previous
decade.
Projected employment growth rates vary widely among
high-technology industries. Computer and data processing
services and research and development laboratories, the only
nonmanufacturing industries in the group, will show some

Motor vehicles. Like home construction, the motor vehicle
industry was hit especially hard by high inflation and interest
rates. The value of domestic production was cut by onefourth in 1980, followed by an additional 10-percent drop
in 1982. Workers in the industry suffered massive layoffs—
284,000 jobs were lost over the 3-year span, with employ­
ment falling to a level of 707,000 by 1982 from 991,000
in 1979.
Consumers are projected to increase demand for motor
vehicles as interest rates fall. New car sales are expected to
climb to more than 12 million vehicles per year by 1988,
compared with just 8 million in 1982.
After the catchup from 1982’s depressed sales levels,
however, new car sales are projected to plateau because of
long-term demographic shifts which have already begun.
The large numbers of new car buyers who flooded show­
rooms in the 1970’s to purchase their first cars are now in
older age groups. This surge of first-time buyers will not
be seen again, at least not for several decades.
Imported autos held steady throughout the recession at
2.3 million units, as the drop in purchases occurred solely
among domestic models. Imports are projected to stabilize




27

Table 4. Projected e m ploym ent changes for selected
industries, 1 9 8 2 -9 5
Average inn ual rate of change
Industry
1 9 8 2 -9 5

1 9 8 2 -9 0

1 9 9 0 -9 5

4.3
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.1

3.2
4.1
5.7
4.0
4.2
3.6
4.1
3.2
3.6
3.3

6.1
3.6
1.1
3.4
3.0
4.0
2.4
3.7
2.7
2.8

-3 .3
-2 .3
-2 .3
-2 .2
-2.1
-2 .0
-1 .6
-1 .5
-1 .5
-1 .3

-2 .3
-2.1
-2 .3
-2.4
-1 .2
-1 .0
-1 .8
-1 .5
-1 .9
-1 .4

-4 .9
-2 .6
-2 .2
-1 .9
-3 .4
-3 .7
-1 .2
-1 .5
- .8
-1 .3

Fastest grow ing:

, Medical and dental instruments ..........................
Business services...............................................
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining ..........................
Computers and peripheral equipment ................
Radio and television broadcasting .....................
Other medical services........................................
Plastic products .................................................
Scientific and controlling instruments ................
Electronic components........................................
New construction ...............................................
M ost rap id ly declining:

Leather tanning and industrial leather ................
Dairy products (processed).................................
Wooden containers............................................
Leather products, including footwear ................
Tobacco manufacturers .....................................
Bakery products . . . ........................................
Railroad transportation........................................
Cotton ...............................................................
Private households ............................................
Dairy and poultry products (farm) .....................
N

o te

:

workers.

Data include wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family

T able 5.

A ctual and projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5

[In thousands]
Actual
Industry

Projected
1 990

1959

196 9

1979

1 99 5

1982
Low

Moderate

High

Low

High

Moderate

Agriculture:
Dairy and poultry products............................................
Meat animals and livestock .........................................
Cotton ..........................................................................
Food and feed grains ...................................................
Other agricultural products............................................

1,551
979
565
960
1,436

813
756
172
635
1,119

463
544
60
602
1,192

429
524
61
603
1,198

378
474
55
585
1,138

384
473
54
589
1,151

387
475
55
593
1,162

344
439
50
571
1,096

360
445
50
577
1,118

367
450
51
585
1,141

Mining:
Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.....................................
Copper ore mining .......................................................
Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper ..............
Coal mining .................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas (except drilling) .........
Stone and clay mining and quarrying ............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining .........................

33
23
31
201
200
105
19

30
34
25
138
157
99
18

31
33
38
261
212
104
25

16
25
34
242
311
90
24

25
27
34
299
275
85
31

25
27
34
286
291
87
31

22
26
33
275
282
92
31

25
33
35
310
332
72
35

26
35
34
317
338
77
35

23
36
34
322
307
87
35

Construction:
New construction (including oil well drilling) ................
Maintenance and repair construction ............................

3,163
662

3,594
792

4,679
1,224

4,067
1,424

5,242
1,778

5,263
1,700

5,366
1,685

5,936
1,861

6,043
1,882

6,091
1,912

Manufacturing:
Durable goods:
Ordnance .....................................................................
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles................
Logging ........................................................................
Sawmills and planing m ills............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products ..............
Wooden containers.......................................................
Household furniture .....................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household.......................
Glass ............................................................................
Cement and concrete products .....................................

50
94
143
305
261
43
259
124
153
209

175
107
138
230
310
36
316
153
188
228

73
81
150
237
394
19
329
176
202
255

79
105
126
179
317
15
270
180
173
209

90
130
130
192
400
12
334
193
198
222

87
130
131
196
406
12
346
199
201
240

88
127
133
210
416
13
368
205
205
250

88
149
124
206
414
10
346
200
211
215

85
140
128
209
419
11
357
206
212
240

90
143
130
215
427
12
392
208
214
257

Structural clay products................................................
Pottery and related products..........................................
Other stone and clay products .....................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products .......................
Iron and steel foundries and forgings............................
Primary copper and copper products ............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products ..................
Primary nonferrous metals and products.......................
Metal containers ..........................................................
Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures.......................

78
49
125
588
269
137
111
78
75
71

64
45
140
644
312
160
153
93
87
76

52
52
165
571
324
161
170
93
80
76

34
40
132
394
221
135
140
80
64
61

35
44
156
420
247
157
167
83
67
72

37
45
164
435
255
160
174
84
69
73

39
46
173
430
258
164
175
86
70
80

29
46
175
433
264
166
168
83
61
77

30
49
182
447
270
170
178
85
62
78

33
50
191
444
275
178
183
90
66
88

Fabricated structural metal products..............................
Screw machine products ..............................................
Metal stampings ..........................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .....................
Other fabricated metal products.....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators ................................
Farm machinery............................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery ................
Material handling equipment..........................................
Metalworking machinery ..............................................

344
88
189
135
231
90
128
162
65
251

440
114
255
165
315
112
141
202
95
347

535
117
245
185
376
145
184
276
106
379

461
92
187
143
331
113
139
254
87
319

537
112
234
177
388
151
164
315
110
371

572
115
249
184
414
152
170
321
113
388

598
117
253
188
413
152
173
325
120
393

563
118
236
198
399
165
167
343
123
373

619
121
252
200
430
167
172
357
125
400

664
122
259
204
436
170
178
368
136
415

Special industry machinery............................................
General industrial machinery.........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery.......................................
Computers and peripheral equipment............................
Typewriters and other office equipment.........................
Service industry machines ............................................
Electric transmission equipment ...................................
Electrical industrial apparatus .......................................
Household appliances ...................................................
Electric lighting and w irin g............................................

164
221
166
111
28
97
157
176
157
134

206
291
246
224
52
147
207
223
187
205

205
329
313
339
59
188
221
251
178
225

176
288
292
428
47
159
215
206
142
187

206
336
323
586
55
190
235
255
175
229

207
342
331
586
60
199
245
261
183
239

211
343
341
593
64
211
246
275
193
246

210
350
339
665
67
208
246
284
185
251

213
356
345
694
69
214
256
288
188
253

221
362
362
706
73
232
263
313
202
253

Radio and television receiving sets................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ..............................
Radio and communication equipment............................
Electronic components ................................................
Other electrical machinery and equipment.....................
Motor vehicles..............................................................
Aircraft ........................................................................
Ship and boat building and repair ................................
Raiiroad equipment.......................................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and pa rts...................................

114
105
252
213
111
696
722
151
41
9

156
146
409
394
125
912
805
193
51
14

116
165
357
525
176
991
632
230
74
20

93
148
424
561
153
707
629
223
37
14

95
177
452
725
162
794
716
260
45
17

106
185
433
745
170
834
680
254
47
18

110
199
440
793
180
828
664
248
47
19

106
208
532
862
192
847
761
277
47
19

113
209
460
850
194
860
709
270
50
20

116
230
463
855
209
871
701
263
52
21

Other transportation equipment.....................................
Scientific and controlling instruments............................
Medical and dental instruments.....................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment..............: ................
Photographic equipment and supplies............................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices................
Jewelry and silverware ..............................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods................

23
166
45
85
69
30
67
116

89
195
82
75
111
35
78
149

103
215
144
81
134
28
92
145

74
226
158
77
140
18
76
130

87
294
205
83
167
22
75
134

96
292
203
86
169
22
82
140

108
292
210
89
173
23
88
144

104
345
270
88
175
23
96
143

109
349
272
92
177
21
98
146

121
359
274
98
184
22
109
150




28

.

Tab le S .C o n iin u e d — A ctual aod projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5
[ In t h o u s a n d s ]

Actual

Projected

industry

1 99 0
1 959

1 969

1 979

199 5

1 982
Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

229

233

245

218

210

214

224

216

218

238

Nondurable goods:
Meat products..............................................
Dairy products..............................................
Canned and frozen fo ods..............................
Grain mill products.......................................
Bakery products............................................
Sugar ..........................................................
Confectionery products ................................
Alcoholic beverages .....................................
Soft drinks and flavorings ............................
Other food products .....................................

324
326
249
139
313
38
79
107
111
144

344
260
291
137
286
36
87
97
142
151

363
189
316
147
238
31
80
86
153
160

352
171
293
135
227
29
73
87
145
152

359
137
331
143
203
30
77
83
164
171

357
144
335
145
210
30
78
86
168
171

359
156
341
145
209
31
80
85
169
168

368
119
336
140
164
27
69
76
159
177

372
127
341
144
174
28
71
80
167
182

380
131
353
147
177
30
76
83
171
182

Tobacco manufacturing ................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .......................
Floor covering mills .....................................
Other textile mill products ............................
Hosiery and knit goods ................................
Apparel .......................................................
Other fabricated textile products ..................
Paper products ............................................
Paperboard ...................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing ..............

95
619
39
74
221
1,100
143
415
175
328

83
616
58
82
251
1,244
182
483
231
376

70
531
61
71
227
1,125
198
494
214
432

68
442
49
60
205
1,009
171
475
189
445

61
448
52
69
207
1,056
220
513
190
492

62
461
56
72
218
1,074
223
516
201
494

64
457
63
75
218
1,061
228
524
209
491

52
474
58
67
236
1,125
238
533
192
535

58
482
62
74
240
1,093
243
551
208
543

Periodical and book printing and publishing . .
Other printing and publishing .......................
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals . .
Agricultural chemicals..................................
Other chemical products ..............................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber...........
Synthetic fibers ............................................
Drugs ..........................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................
Paints and allied products ...........................

156
446
260
54
82
81
79
106
89
62

210
550
296
65
124
108
132
143
123
72

230
640
328
70
99
100
112
193
140
69

248
668
329
65
95
89
97
199
147
62

296
733
362
81
107
110
110
253
166
68

298
758
358
84
111
114
116
254
168
71

304
751
353
84
121
119
124
252
166
72

330
745
371
82
116
113
121
276
167
65

338
789
379
88
120
116
124
281
176
70

344
803
381
93
121
124
134
284
178
73

Petroleum refining and related products
Tires and inner tubes ..................................
Rubber products except tires and tubes
Plastic products............................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........
Leather products including footwear..............

217
105
178
94
36
341

182
119
162
320
29
316

210
127
167
494
20
232

202
105
140
460
19
206

185
100
147
565
15
166

183
102
151
636
16
170

182
104
157
653
16
172

179
101
146
654
11
147

182
104
150
716
12
154

183
108
159
741
14
144

Transportation:
Railroad transportation ................................
Local transit and intercity buses ..................
Truck transportation .....................................
Water transportation.....................................
Air transportation..........................................
Pipeline transportation...................................
Transportation services ................................

930
311
1,001
239
184
24
70

651
315
1,214
234
357
18
111

559
303
1,555
222
443
20
198

433
314
1,454
206
450
22
224

353
345
1,720
197
522
22
261

373
341
1,701
210
532
24
269

429
345
1,702
214
528
25
250

327
350
1.750
204
561
24
295

351
361
1,774
214
568
24
302

377
385
1,793
216
573
27
302

Communications:
Radio and television broadcasting ................
Communications except radio and television .

90
749

131
919

191
1,121

221
1,199

301
1,384

308
1,379

292
1,434

355
1,543

357
1,593

359
1,603

Public utilities:
Electric utilities, public and private................
Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.......................
Water and sanitary services, except public . .

430
215
61

460
220
88

608
220
94

684
230
106

686
220
140

712
218
133

714
219
135

730
205
144

740
207
147

746
211
154

Trade:
Wholesale tra de............................................
Eating and drinking places............................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places

3,349
1,960
7,936

4,163
2,812
9,729

5,507
4,864
11,981

5,585
5,159
11,792

6,162
5,908
13,815

6,298
5,951
14,106

6,387
5,959
14,303

6,622
6,669
14,473

6,734
6,742
15,070

6,745
6,772
15,342

Finance, insurance, and real estate:
Banking .......................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers ...........
Insurance.....................................................
Real estate ...................................................

644
389
1,137
753

987
652
1,370
855

1,498
901
1.750
1,374

1,655
1,038
1,870
1,336

1,954
1,313
2,187
1,567

1,954
1,350
2,169
1,640

1,968
1,364
2,168
1,168

2,098
1,507
2,237
1,764

2,120
1,518
2,272
1,774

2,146
1,549
2,307
1,787

Services:
Hotels and lodging places ...........................
Personal and repair services.........................
Barber and beauty shops..............................
Miscellaneous business services ..................
Advertising ...................................................
Miscellaneous professional services..............
Automobile repair.........................................
Motion pictures ............................................
Amusements and recreation services ...........
Doctors’ and dentists' services ....................
Hospitals .....................................................
Medical services, except hospitals................

868
1,157
538
814
121
746
422
228
372
605
974
303

1,065
1,232
634
1,691
134
1,046
569
248
497
806
1,776
672

1,549
1,239
632
3,178
165
1,814
839
311
769
1,351
2,614
1,431

1,693
1,305
624
3,743
186
2,147
910
310
870
1,503
3,016
1,664

1,914
1,466
652
4,951
213
2,573
965
325
1,035
1,876
3,895
2,089

1,915
1,519
660
5,172
218
2,640
1,029
315
1,059
1,897
3,963
2,208

1,891
1,621
685
5,331
221
2,620
1,101
316
1,082
2,036
3,889
2,279

2,004
1,547
707
6,148
228
2,916
1,113
323
1,173
1,971
4,471
2,649

2,010
1,592
733
6,183
234
3,004
1,141
326
1,193
2,005
4,477
2,688

2,034
1,734
760
6,229
238
3,099
1,186
337
1,248
2,095
4,665
2,744

O th e r m a n u fa c tu re d




p ro d u c ts

29

50
471
57
65
224
1,117
234
526 ■
179
517

Table 5 .C o n tin u ed — A ctual and projected em ploym ent by industry, 1 9 5 9 -9 5
[ In t h o u s a n d s ]

Projected

Actual
Industry

1959

196 9

197 9

198 2

Educational services (private) .......................................
Nonprofit organizations .................................................
Private households........................................................
Forestry and fishery products.......................................
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services.....................

839
1,331
2,574
60
285

1,229
1,764
2,322
55
329

1,721
2,073
1,723
83
489

1,882
2,095
1,635
84
585

2,447
2,387
1,443
73
640

Government enterprises:
Post office ...................................................................
Other federal enterprises ..............................................
Local government passenger transit..............................
Other state and local government enterprises................

574
104
71
225

732
152
87
351

661
155
130
541

662
150
173
496

629
182
207
610

N

o te:

1 99 5

199 0
Low

Moderate

H igh

High

Low

2,157
2,406
1,400
79
623

2,001
2,449
1,392
89
613

2,311
2,455
1,295
96
704

2,396
2,505
1,346
92
711

2,411
2,606
1,368
99
716

597
178
209
623

595
182
215
649

537
182
228
700

581
189
233
723

594
198
251
781

Moderate

Data include wage and salary workers, the selt-employed, and unpaid family workers.

Communication equipment. Demand for communication
equipment such as radios, televisions, telephone apparatus,
radar, laser systems, satellites, and similar items will almost
double between 1982 and 1995. New telecommunications
services required by businesses and consumers will be aug­
mented by increasing defense expenditures, at least in the
earlier years. Imports are not expected to make additional
inroads into the market but rather are projected to hold a
smaller share of total output by 1995.
Employment, on the other hand, will not rise as rapidly
as output. Productivity gains have typically been rapid in
the manufacture of communications equipment, and this
trend will hold. Employment in radio and television set
production, which had suffered because of import compe­
tition and slack demand for all consumer durables during
the recession, is projected to rebound and grow 1.5 percent
a year between 1982 and 1995. The 1995 level, however,
will still fall far short of the previous peak. Jobs in telephone
apparatus manufacturing are projected to grow 2.7 percent
a year, while in radio and other communications equipment,
productivity advances will limit job gains to .6 percent a
year.

of the highest annual rates of increase, 5.2 percent and 3.9
percent respectively. Other rapid gainers are medical and
dental instruments (4.2 percent), office and computing ma­
chines (3.7 percent), electronic components (3.2 percent),
and engines and turbines (3.1 percent). On the other hand,
the chemical industries as a group and petroleum refining
are projected to have much lower growth rates because of
oil price effects. In fact, employment in petroleum refining
is projected to decline 1.6 percent a year.
Computers. Demand for computers and related equipment
such as data storage devices, printers, calculators, and sim­
ilar items is projected to continue to boom through the
1990’s. Computer process control and computer-assisted
design and manufacture will be widespread. Purchases of
computer equipment will represent about one-fifth of all
capital expenditures by businesses, by far their largest item
of durable equipment spending. Investment, export, and
government demand for computers will soon be supple­
mented by personal consumption expenditures. Foreign
competition, although projected to rise, is not expected to
significantly hamper the expansion of domestic output. Im­
ports will continue to represent about 7 percent of total
output. The value of domestic production of computers and
peripheral equipment is projected to post a 6.9-percent yearly
growth rate, ranking it among the top five output gainers.
Employment in computer manufacturing is projected to
grow 3.8 percent a year. Productivity gains have typically
been very rapid in this industry, and this will continue.

Aerospace. Defense demand is also expected to boost pro­
duction in the aircraft and guided missiles and space vehicles
industries. Most of this growth will occur by the mid-1980’s,
after which real defense expenditures are projected to mod­
erate sharply. Commercial aircraft manufacturers are ex­
pected to meet serious competition from foreign producers,
both in their domestic and overseas markets. Output of the
aircraft industry is projected to expand 1.8 percent a year
during 1982-95, while employment grows at a .9 percent
rate.

Electronic components. Electronic components are expected
to become an even more integral part of consumer and
capital goods than they are now. Domestic production will
expand by 7.6 percent a year between 1982 and 1995. Im­
ports are projected to grow at about the same rate, keeping
the import share of total output of electronic components at
about 14 percent. Employment is projected to rise from
561,000 in 1982 to 850,000 by 1995, a 3.2-percent yearly
gain.




Machinery. Other nonelectrical machinery (besides com­
puters, typewriters, and other office equipment) is projected
to experience a strong rebound in demand as businesses
begin to invest in new capital equipment. The sector is
projected to enjoy a 4.3-percent average rate of output growth

30

between 1982 and 1995 (4.8 percent in the early years).
Growth of domestic production occurs despite substantial
import gains, because projected demand is so strong. Im­
ports are expected to account for larger shares of most
nonelectrical machinery industries than they do now, but
for no industry will the share top 15 percent.
Leading the gains in domestic output will be engines and
turbines and construction, mining, and oilfield machinery.
Output of engines and turbines grows rapidly because of
expected strong export demand, while the projected rebound
in construction spurs demand for construction machinery.
The metalworking machinery industry, which produces in­
dustrial robots, is projected to expand production by 3.5
percent a year through 1995, compared with declines or
marginal growth since the mid-1960’s.
Employment in nonelectrical machinery industries is pro­
jected to recover from 1982’s cutbacks and resume long­
term trends. Productivity gains are expected to be more rapid
than for the durable goods sector as a whole, but because
output also grows faster, there are opportunities for em­
ployment recovery. Most nonelectrical machinery industries
will record new employment peaks by 1995.

employment from the 1982 level. Some food industries (dairy
products, bakery products, sugar, confectionery products,
and alcoholic beverages) will actually lose jobs, while others
(canned and frozen foods, soft drinks, meat products, grain
mill products, and other miscellaneous food items) are pro­
jected to post slight job gains.
Clothing purchases are projected to grow 2.6 percent a
year between 1982 and 1995, but the share accounted for
by imports will almost double, from 11 percent in 1977 to
almost 22 percent by 1995. This shift in the site of pro­
duction will limit employment gains in the industry. Jobs
are projected to increase from 1.0 million in 1982 to only
1.1 million in 1995.
Some nondurable sectors are expected to enjoy consid­
erable output growth, such as drugs, chemicals, synthetic
fibers, and plastics. Output in each of these industries is
projected to grow by more than 4 percent a year. Employ­
ment growth in these sectors shows a wider range because
of differing projections of productivity—jobs grow by 3.5
percent a year in plastic products (the seventh fastest of all
industries studied), but only by 1.4 percent in chemicals.

Steel and other primary metals. Because of the strong growth
projected for new construction, autos, nonelectrical ma­
chinery, and other industrial apparatus, the primary metals
industries are expected to expand production over the next
several years following the 1980-82 recession. However,
recovery is not expected to be complete. Competition from
foreign suppliers as well as continued substitution of alter­
native materials, such as plastics or ceramics, will limit the
markets for domestic primary metals producers.
In the steel industry, which once employed 726,000 work­
ers, output dropped by half over the late 1970’s and early
1980’s, and employment declined to 394,000 by 1982. Many
steel mills were closed during the 1975-82 period. Recovery
is expected, but neither production nor employment are
projected to reach prerecession levels by 1995. Further, the
gains in employment are projected to be less rapid than the
gains in output, as it is assumed that production can only
expand if new technologies such as continuous casting, the
direct reduction of iron ore, and the electric arc furnace are
used. Minimills which can specialize and use the latest
technologies will become more important. Employment in
the steel industry is projected to reach 447,000 by 1995.
Two primary metals, copper and aluminum manufactur­
ing, have a better outlook than iron and steel. Demand for
copper will be boosted by the rebound in residential con­
struction, while aluminum will enjoy growth as a substitute
for steel.

The miscellaneous service sector will provide the most
new job opportunities over the next decade and a half, with
about twice as many new jobs as manufacturing. These jobs
will be spread among various service industries, from med­
ical care to business and professional services to amuse­
ments and recreation. In sum, miscellaneous or “ other
service” industries will account for more than 31 million
jobs in 1995, almost one-fourth of total employment.
Service industries are least affected by cyclical move­
ments, and the recent recession was no exception. While
declines in employment were reported for almost every other
sector, jobs in the other services sector expanded 3.7 percent
a year throughout the 1979-82 recessionary period. Of course,
job growth might have been even stronger without the eco­
nomic downturn, but almost 2.4 million jobs were added
in these service industries during the period in which other
sectors experienced layoffs.

Miscellaneous services—most new jobs

Business services. The largest industry in the “ other ser­
vice” category, miscellaneous business services, will have
the most new jobs between 1982 and 1995. Employment is
projected to grow from 3.7 million in 1982 to 6.2 million
in 1995. A wide variety of services are included in this
sector, such as personnel supply, business consuF-^ts (pro­
viding management services or public relations advice), jan­
itorial and protective services, and computer and data
processing services. All are expected to show rapid growth.
Total output for the industry is projected to grow 5.3 percent
a year and employment, 3.9 percent. These rates, although
among the highest of all industries studied, are still lower
than the historical growth rates for the industry. Since 1958,
output growth in business services has averaged 9.4 percent

Nondurable goods. Nondurable manufactured goods are
projected to experience modest growth over the next decade
and a half. Food products industries can expect a 1.9-percent
annual rate of increase in output, but little change in total




31

Growth slows in trade, government

a year and employment, 7.0 percent. The slowdown is pro­
jected to occur as the industry matures and the shift from
in-house services to contracting-out by businesses reaches
a saturation point.

Employment in wholesale and retail trade is projected to
grow along with the rest of the economy, increasing from
22.5 million in 1982 to 28.5 million in 1995. Because total
employment growth is slowing down, the rate of job growth
in trade is also slower than it has been historically. Retail
trade employment is projected to grow 2.0 percent a year,
compared with 2.4 percent between 1958 and 1982; jobs in
wholesale trade are projected to expand 1.4 percent an­
nually, compared with 2.5 percent in the past.
The largest number of new job openings, about 1.6 mil­
lion, will be in eating and drinking establishments. Other
retail firms posting large gains will be department stores,
grocery stores, new car dealers, miscellaneous shopping
goods stores (such as jewelry, books, cameras, and sporting
goods), and drug and proprietary stores. Retail shops pro­
jected to actually lose jobs include mobile home dealers,
variety stores, general merchandise stores, candy stores,
dairy products stores, women’s accessory stores (such as
millinery shops), children’s wear stores, and fur shops.
In wholesale trade, the largest employment increases will
be found in establishments selling machinery and equip­
ment, motor vehicles, miscellaneous nondurable goods, and
electrical goods.

Professional services. A related industry, miscellaneous
professional services, is expected to follow the same trends.
More than 850,000 jobs will be added to the sector between
1982 and 1995, but the rate of growth of both output and
employment is projected to be smaller than the historical
rates. This industry provides legal, engineering, architec­
tural, accounting, and other professional services to busi­
nesses. Employment is projected to top 3 million in 1995.
Medical care. A very significant sector in terms of both
number of jobs and rate of expansion has been the health
field. Jobs in doctors’ and dentists’ offices more than dou­
bled during the 1960’s and 1970’s, rising 4.2 percent a year
to 1.5 million in 1982. Hospital employment tripled, grow­
ing 5.1 percent a year between 1958 and 1982 to 3 million
jobs. The other medical services industry had the most rapid
growth—jobs in nursing homes and personal care facilities,
outpatient clinics run by health maintenance organizations
or group health associations, and drug or alcohol rehabili­
tation centers, increased more than five times, with em­
ployment reaching 1.7 million in 1982.
Growth in health care employment was the result of many
factors, chief among them the more widespread coverage
of private medical insurance and the introduction of gov­
ernment health benefits programs such as medicare and med­
icaid. The projections assume no change in current law—
that government funding will be maintained at its present
level, except for changes stemming from inflation.
Inflation in medical care costs poses the greatest uncer­
tainty in the projections of medical services output and em­
ployment. While the overall consumer price index has tripled
since 1965, the index for medical care services has quad­
rupled. Despite these sharply increased costs, demand is
projected to be even stronger in the projection period, as
the population ages and as new, expensive technologies are
used in life-saving treatments.
Because of higher costs and the assumption of no new
government programs, it is expected that output and em­
ployment in medical care services will slow from historical
rates. Doctors’ and dentists’ office jobs are projected to grow
2.2 percent a year over the 13 years through 1995, or an
increase of 500,000. By comparison, over the previous 13year period (1969-82), 700,000 jobs were added in medical
offices. Hospital employment is projected to grow 3.1 per­
cent a year, from 3 million in 1982 to 4.5 million in 1995.
Jobs in other medical services will expand by 3.8 percent
a year to almost 2.7 million in 1995. Overall, the 3 million
new health care jobs projected to be added between 1982
and 1995 represent almost 12 percent of the total number
of new jobs.




Government. Employment in government is projected to
grow more slowly than private sector jobs, as has been true
since 1975, but the opposite of the expansionary 1950’s and
1960’s. The state and local sector represents most of the
slowdown, as only 1.2 million new jobs will be added over
the next 13 years, compared with 3.6 million during the
preceding 13-year period.
Although job growth is slower than in the 1960’s, it still
represents a reversal from the actual declines of the late
1970’s. In addition to tight budgets during the recession,
declining school enrollments caused many state and local
governments to reduce hiring. Beginning in 1984, however,
enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is
projected to turn up again as the children of the baby-boom
generation advance through school, leading to a slight up­
turn in employment.

Banking and transportation and utilities
The output of financial and banking services is projected
to show very large gains over the next decade and a half
with the introduction of new consumer services such as
automatic funds transfers and the more widespread use of
investment counseling. The output of the banking industry
and of credit agencies and financial brokers is projected to
grow by 4.1 percent a year.
Employment growth, on the other hand, will be very
modest. Automatic teller machines and computerized bank­
ing and stock transactions will limit job gains to 1.9 percent
a year. By comparison, employment in banking grew 4.4

32

percent through the 1960’s and 1970’s, as the expanding
use of checking accounts created the need for large numbers
of new hires for check processing. That impetus will not
be repeated, however, as checking account use is now com­
monplace, and as automatic transfers replace manual check
processing.
The transportation, communications, and public utilities
sector is not projected to contribute significantly to overall
job growth, only adding slightly more than 1 million extra
workers. However, output of this sector is projected to lead
all other sectors in growth, reflecting the strong demand for
new telecommunications services, as well as the divestiture
of the telephone company. Output of the communications
sector, which indudes radio and television broadcasting in
addition to telephone and telegraph communications, is pro­
jected to expand by 5.9 percent a year, compared with 2.9
percent for the economy as a whole.

Tab le 6. G ross national product, m oderate grow th path
and high and low alternatives
[ In b ill io n s o f 1 9 7 2 d o l la r s ]

1982
Low

M oderate

High

Low

High

Gross national product . . . . $1,485.4 $2,148.7 $2,166.9 $2,284.6 -0 .8

5.4

1,504.6 -2 .9
279.8 -6 .9
485.4 -4 .0
739.4 - .9

6.5
16.4
3.7
5.0

1,371.1 1,412.4
223.8
240.4
449.4
468.0
697.9
704.0

Personal consumption . .
Durables ..................
Nondurables ..............
Services.....................

194.5
112.7
53.4
37.8
-9 .4

285.7
159.6
44.6
69.6
11.9

337.2
177.2
70.1
78.1
11.8

408.6
204.6
77.6
114.1
12.3

Net exports...................
Exports.....................
Imports.....................

28.9
147.3
118.4

148.4
267.9
119.4

85.9
260.0
174.1

23.0 72.8 -73.2
3.0
1.5
264.0
241.0 -31.4 38.4

Government.
Federal .....................
Defense................
Nondefense .........
State and local .........

Different industry employment levels in the low and high
alternatives are primarily the result of two factors— (1) the
unemployment rate and the size of the labor force are dif­
ferent in each case than in the moderate growth projection,
leading to different levels of total employment, and (2) the
distribution of final demand is markedly different, causing
output and, therefore, employment at the industry level to
vary significantly from the base case. (See table 6.)
In the low-growth alternative, a smaller labor force and
more unemployment results in 2.3 million fewer jobs. Al­
though total employment is only about 2 percent lower, at
the industry level the difference between the base case and
the low trend alternative ranges over a much broader band.
For some industries, employment is almost 10 percent lower,
while in others, it is actually higher than in the base case.
This span results from the sharp differences in final demand
and in projections of productivity.
A disproportionate share of the job difference occurs in
durable manufacturing industries because interest rates are
higher than in the base case. Only manufacturing industries
dependent on defense demand do not show this drop; defense
expenditures, as well as other federal government pur­
chases, are actually higher in the low-growth scenario than
in the bas.e case because it is assumed that the federal gov­
ernment increases spending to try to stimulate the sluggish
economy. Examples of defense demand boosting output and
employment to higher levels than in the base projection are
in ordnance, guided missiles, radio and communication
equipment, electronic components, aircraft, and shipbuild­
ing industries.

970.2
139.8
364.2
466.2

Gross private investment
Equipment................
Structures ................
Residential................
Inventory change . . .

Low and high alternative projections




Percent
difference
from moderate

1995
C om ponent

291.8
116.6
78.8
37.8
175.2

343.5
157.0
113.2
43.8
186.5

331.4
139.2
98.9
40.3
192.2

348.4
3.7
145.9 12.8
103.9 14.5
8.7
41.9
202.5 -3 .0

S

ource

:

-15.3
-9 .9
-36.4
-10.9
.8

21.2
15.5
10.7
46.1
4.2

5.1
4.8
5.1
4.0
5.4

1982 data are from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic

Analysis.

In addition, lower income growth results in much lower
imports, leading to instances where domestic production of
import-sensitive industries is higher in the low-growth al­
ternative than in the base case. This occurs in forestry and
fishery products, nonferrous metal ores mining, chemical
and fertilizer mining, and watches and clocks.
In the high-growth alternative, many of these assumptions
are reversed. Total employment in 1995 is 2.7 million higher
than in the moderate case, based on a larger labor force and
less unemployment. Like the low-growth alternative, al­
though total employment varies from the base case by about
2 percent, jobs at the industry level have a much broader
range, in some instances topping the base case by as much
as 13 percent.
Monetary policy is assumed to be less restrictive in the
high-growth alternative, resulting in a higher rate of infla­
tion. Inflation, however, contributes to making imports more
attractive, and the rise in imports more than offsets increased
domestic demand in several industries. Because of imports,
domestic production in the high alternative is lower than in
the base case for iron mining, crude petroleum, sugar, con­
fectionery products, apparel, leather tanning, leather prod­
ucts, and steel. Employment is also correspondingly lower;
however, for sugar and confectionery products, lower pro­
ductivity keeps employment levels higher than in the base
case.
□

33

FO O TN O TES
2 See Andreassen and others, “ The economic outlook for the !990’s ”
for specific assumptions.

'S ee the following articles in this issue: Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and
John H. Tschetter, “ The 1995 labor force: a second lo o k ” , pp. 1-8;
Arthur J. Andreassen, Norman C. Saunders, and Betty U. Su, “ The eco­
nomic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenarios for economic growth” ;
pp. 9-21; and G eorge Silvestri, John M . Lukasiewicz, and Marcus E.
Einstein, “ Occupational employment projections through 1995” , pp. 3547.




3See Fullerton and Tschetter, "The 1995 labor force".
4See Richard Riche. Daniel Hecker, and John Burgan, “ High technol­
ogy today and tom orrow; a small slice o f the em ploym ent p ie ,”
M onthly L abor Review, Novem ber 1983, pp. 50— 58.

34

Occupational employment projections
through 1995
During 1982-95, health care will continue
to be an expanding field of work, typists
are apt to decline due to word processors,
and high technology should spur the growth of
occupations such as engineers and computer personnel
but dim the outlookfor others, especially drafters
G e o r g e T . S i l v e s t r i , Jo h n M . L u k a s i e w i c z ,
and

M a r c u s E . E in s t e in

The most recent occupational projections by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics suggest that a wide range of job skills will
be needed in 1995. Employment in jobs requiring a college
education or specialized post-secondary technical training
are expected to increase significantly between 1982 and
1995. However, many jobs that do not require post-sec­
ondary training are also expected to expand significantly.
For example, the projected rapid increase in demand for
medical services will require large numbers of nursing aides
and orderlies in addition to highly trained medical practi­
tioners.
On the other hand, employment growth in many occu­
pations will be affected by technological change through the
mid-1990’s. For example, word processing equipment will
slow the employment growth of typists, and industrial robots
will reduce the growth in employment of welders, produc­
tion painters, and material moving occupations. However,
despite widespread technological advances, employment will
continue to advance in most traditional fields from 1982 to
1995. More workers will be needed to drive trucks to deliver
goods, to clean a growing number of buildings, to perform
health and personal services and provide police and fire

protection for our increasing population, and to maintain
and repair a larger stock of automobiles, appliances, and
factory equipment.
Rapid expansion of high technology will spur the growth
of scientists, engineers, technicians, and computer special­
ists. They will be required to design, develop, and use hightechnology products such as computers, scientific and med­
ical instruments, communication equipment, and robots.
Employment in these occupations has generally grown faster
than the economy as a whole and most are expected to
continue to do so. However, even in some of these fields,
technological advances will have an impact on reducing
employment needs. For example, advances in computeraided design technology are expected to severely limit the
employment growth of drafters.
The pattern of industrial employment growth also has an
important impact on expected changes in occupational struc­
ture, because many occupations are concentrated by indus­
try. Therefore, the information on occupational growth
patterns presented in this article cannot be fully understood
apart from the data and analyses dealing with economic and
industry growth trends presented elsewhere in this issue of
the Review. Indeed, the methodologies used to develop both
the industry and occupational projections are very closely
related.1

The authors are economists in the Division of Occupational Outlook, Bu­
reau o f Labor Statistics.




35

Table 1.

Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1979, 1982, and projected 1995
Total e m ploym ent (in thousands)

P ercent change

1995

Occupation
1 979

1882

Low
trend

Total, all occupations................................................................... 101,206 101,510 124,846
Professional, technical, and related workers ............................ 15,758 16,584 21,545
1,204
1,787
1,177
Engineers ............................................................................
44
44
65
Aero-astronautic engineers ..............................................
79
56
58
Chemical engineers ..........................................................
156
155
226
Civil engineers .................................................................
300
320
531
Electrical engineers ..........................................................
171
160
226
Industrial engineers..........................................................
209
314
216
Mechanical engineers.......................................................
31
26
Petroleum engineers .......................................................
16

1 9 7 9 -9 5

Moderate
trend

High
trend

Low
trend

127,110
21,775
1,788
62
80
228
528
227
318
32

129,902
22,325
1,831
62
82
236
540
232
327
30

23
37
52
47
37
45
77
32
45
95

M oderate
trend

1 9 8 2 -9 5
High
trend

Low
trend

26
38
52
39
40
46
76
32
47
98

28
42
56
41
43
51
80
36
51
89

23
30
48
49
41
45
66
41
50
19

25
31
49
41
43
47
65
42
52
22

28
35
52
42
47
52
69
45
56
16

M oderate
trend

High
trend

Life and physical scientists...................................................
Biological scientists..........................................................
Chemists..........................................................................
Geologists ........................................................................
Mathematical specialists.......................................................
Engineering and science technicians.....................................
Civil engineering technicians ............................................
Drafters............................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians...................................
Industrial engineering technicians.....................................
Mechanical engineering technicians...................................
Surveyors ........................................................................

247
47
87
38
48
1,227
32
307
350
33
47
55

271
52
89
49
48
1,243
35
302
366
27
48
44

343
71
107
60
63
1,649
56
309
585
36
72
61

342
70
108
60
62
1,661
58
318
589
35
72
62

348
73
111
59
63
1,705
60
327
602
37
74
64

39
50
22
60
31
34
77
1
67
9
54
11

38
48
24
60
29
35
82
3
68
7
55
13

41
53
27
57
32
39
88
7
72
11
58
17

27
38
21
24
31
33
59
2
60
31
51
40

26
36
22
24
29
34
64
5
61
29
52
43

29
41
25
21
32
37
69
8
64
33
55
47

Medical workers, except technicians.....................................
Chiropractors ...................................................................
Dentists............................................................................
Dietitians..........................................................................
Nurses, registered............................................................
Optometrists.....................................................................
Pharmacists.....................................................................
Physicians........................................................................
Therapists ........................................................................
Respiratory therapists...................................................
Occupational therapists .................................................
Physical therapists.......................................................
Speech pathologists and audiologists...........................
Veterinarians ...................................................................

2,231
22
161
41
1,165
32
143
436
186
42
22
37
40
34

2,463
25
173
44
1,312
28
151
479
202
46
25
43
42
36

3.471
33
213
61
1,943
35
188
640
291
67
40
68
53
48

3,491
32
213
62
1,954
34
192
642
294
67
40
69
54
48

3,600
32
218
64
2,022
35
196
663
302
70
41
70
55
48

56
46
32
48
67
9
31
47
56
61
85
84
31
42

56
45
33
50
68
8
34
47
58
62
86 s
85
33
41

61
45
36
55
74
9
37
52
62
68
92
89
36
43

41
28
23
38
48
26
24
34
44
44
58
57
27
31

42
27
24
40
49
25
27
34
45
45
60
58
29
30

46
27
27
44
54
26
30
38
50
50
64
62
32
32

Health technologists and technicians.....................................
Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians ..............
Medical laboratory technicians .....................................
Medical laboratory technologists ..................................
Dental hygienists..............................................................
Physical therapy assistants ..............................................
Radiologic technologists...................................................
Radiologic technologists and nuclear medicine
technicians ..............................................................
X-ray technicians ..........................................................
Surgical technicians..........................................................

574
195
60
92
58
27
97

627
209
57
103
69
33
110

891
291
70
150
97
55
156

898
292
71
150
99
55
157

932
303
73
156
104
56
164

55
49
16
63
69
103
61

57
50
18
64
72
104
63

62
55
22
70
81
109
69

42
. 39
22
46
40
67
42

43
40
23
46
43
68
43

49
45
28
52
50
72
49

32
65
31

36
74
35

50
106
48

50
107
49

52
111
51

60
62
58

60
64
58

66
70
65

40
43
39

39
45
40

45
51
45

Technicians, excluding health, science, and engineering . . . .
Airplane pilots...................................................................
Library technicians............................................................
Computer specialists............................................................
Programmers...................................................................
Systems analysts..............................................................
Social scientists...................................................................
Economists .....................................................................
Psychologists...................................................................

338
78
28
447
231
216
175
29
69

364
80
29
521
266
254
206
30
83

451
102
32
935
465
469
267
39
109

453
103
32
943
471
471
267
38
110

465
104
33
960
480
480
273
39
112

33
31
15
109
101
118
52
35
59

34
32
16
111
104
119
52
32
60

38
34
19
115
107
123
56
36
63

24
28
9
79
75
85
30
29
32

24
29
10
81
77
85
30
27
33

28
31
13
84
80
89
33
30
36

Teachers ...............................................................................
Adult education teachers...................................................
College and university faculty............................................
Dance instructors ............................................................
Graduate assistants ..........................................................
Preschool, kindergarten, elementary schoolteachers.........
Preschool teachers.......................................................
Kindergarten and elementary schoolteachers ................
Secondary schoolteachers.................................................
Vocational education teachers ..........................................

3,967
107
686
23
138
1,668
285
1,383
1,083
99

3,980*
125
744
27
140
1,647
281
1,366
1,024
98

4.612
164
619
35
122
2,226
387
1,839
1,128
139

4,706
165
632
35
124
2,274
397
1,877
1,152
143

4,806
170
646
36
127
2,322
404
1,918
1,177
146

16
53
-1 0
51
-1 2
33
36
33
4
41

19
54
-8
52
-1 0
36
39
36
6

4
5

21
58
-6
57
-8
39
42
39
9
48

16
31
-1 7
31
-1 3
35
38
35
10
42

18
32
-1 5
32
-11
38
41
37
13
46

21
36
-1 3
36
-9
41
44
40
15
49

Selected writers, artists, and entertainers ............................
Actors.............................................................................
Commercial and graphic artists and designers..................
Designers ......................................................................
Musicians ......................................................................
Painters, artistic ..........................................................
Photographers ...............................................................
Public relations specialists..........................................
Radio and TV announcers and newscasters...........
Announcers..............................................
Reporters and correspondents ...................................
Sports instructors ..........................................
Writers and editors .................................................

251

301
34
133
180
124
25
86
90
55
46
51
53
120

398
48
166
247
153
29
101
14
70
58
64
63
160

406
49
167
253
155
29
102
115
70
58
66
64
162

417
52
169
258
160
29
104
118
70
58
67
66
165

58

62
(1)
41
52
16
42
18
36
47
45
34
(1)
42

66
d)
42
55
19
42
21
39
48
46
36
(1)
45

32
40
25
38
23
17
18

35
43
26
41
25
16
18

38
51
27
44
28
16
21

27
25
26
20
34

28
26
29
21
35




(D

119
166
134
21
86
85
48
40
49
(D

114

36

(D

40
49
15
43
18
35
46
44
30
0)
40

uC

29
27
31
25
38

Table 1.

C ontinued-C ivilian employment in occupations
Total em ploym ent (In thousands)
Occupation

Percent change

199 5
1979

Other professional and technical workers..............................
Accountants and auditors ................................................
Architects ........................................................................
Assessors ........................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale trade.....................................
Clergy..............................................................................
Cost estimators.................................................................
Counselors........................................................................
Directors, religious education and activities.......................
Employment interviewers ................................................

4,389
830
75
29
251

1982

Low
trend

Moderate
trend

1 9 7 9 -9 5
High
trend

Low
trend

(D

(D

(D

46
19
28
47

20
60
57
150
13
33
26
20

15
63
59
158
15
34
26
22

21
70
62
168
18
38
30
26

14
37
33
88
11
23
27
21

9
39
34
94
13
23
27
23

15
45
37
102
15
27
31
27

30
32
22
95
13
75
28

19
19
17
43
16
38
19

21
21
20
45
10
43
21

24
24
24
48
16
52
23

33
31
31
12
5
-1 4
-4 7
35
34
21
17
35
25

36
34
34
15
10
-1 2
-4 3
35
35
23
20
37
26

26
37
39
17
9
-2 0
-3 6
23
30
15
14
26
20

28
42
44
17
7
-1 4
-3 2
24
33
18
16
30
22

31
45
47
21
11
-1 2
-2 7
25
35
20
19
32
23

26
35
37
35
53
42
26
24
21
77
74

29
36
37
35
54
43
30
28
26
78
78

31
37
38
37
56
45
31
30
28
81
78

23
33
28
34
48
24
24
25
19
36
40

26
33
28
34
49
25
27
29
23
36
43

28
34
29
35
51
27
28
31
26
39
43

24,538
50
703
81
622
2,027
895
1,132
2,362

27
26
47
55
46
13
19
9
47

30
30
49
57
48
16
21
11
52

33
33
51
59
50
18
24
14
56

24
34
27
18
29
13
14
13
42

26
38
29
19
30
16
16
16
47

29
40
30
21
32
18
18
18
50

101
95
63
641
137
30
78
125
109
55
116
33
329
3,113
145
98
65
485
228
257

47
42
56
42
51
2
52
40
31
4
27
-7
8
26
77
17
(1)
-1 9
-1 2
-2 4

47
41
59
45
53
3
54
44
32
6
30
-5
10
28
79
19
(1)
-1 2
-5
-1 8

51
45
62
47
55
6
57
45
34
8
33
-3
12
31
86
22
(1)
-1 0
-3
-1 6

49
41
29
32
42
6
53
35
22
10
23
0
7
27
60
16
40
-1 9
-1 2
-2 4

49
40
31
35
44
8
54
39
23
12
26
2
9
30
62
18
41
-1 2
-5
-1 8

53
44
34
37
46
11
57
40
25
14
29
5
12
33
69
21
44
-1 0
-3
-1 6

Foresters and conservationists .........................................
Law clerks.......................................................................
Lawyers ..........................................................................
Legal assistants ..............................................................
Librarians .......................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists .........................
Purchasing agents and buyers .........................................
Group recreation workers ................................................

29
35
393
34
147
187
178
122

31
40
465
45
151
203
177
122

35
55
618
85
167
249
225
148

34
56
624
88
170
250
225
150

Social workers .................................................................
Caseworkers .................................................................
Community organization workers..................................
Special agents, insurance ................................................
Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents ................
Tax preparers...................................................................
Underwriters ...................................................................

328
275
53
23
48
28
73

345
292
52
31
47
32
76

409
348
61
44
54
45
90

416
353
63
44
52
46
92

428
364
65
45
54
49
93

25
26
15
90
13
60
24

Managers, officials, and proprietors.........................................
Auto parts department managers .........................................
Auto service department managers.......................................
Construction inspectors, public administration .....................
Health and regulatory inspectors .........................................
Postmasters and mail superintendents .................................
Railroad conductors ............................................................
Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers.....................................
Sales managers, retail trade ................................................
Assistant principals..............................................................
Principals ............................................................................
Store managers ...................................................................
Wholesalers..........................................................................

9,152
48
60
41
103
28
35
528
271
37
81
938
241

9,532
44
54
39
101
28
27
574
271
38
82
971
247

12,008
61
76
46
111
23
17
706
352
44
93
1,218
298

12,212
63
78
46
108
24
18
711
362
45
95
1,262
302

12,467
64
80
47
113
25
20
715
365
46
97
1,285
303

31
27
27
12
8
-2 0
-5 0
34
30
18
15
30
23

Salesworkers .............................................................. ...........
Real estate agents and brokers ............................................
Real estate brokers ..........................................................
Sales agents, sales representatives, real estate ................
Real estate appraisers ..........................................................
Sales agents and brokers, insurance.....................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical.......................................
Sales representatives, technical ............................................
Salesclerks ..........................................................................
Security salesworkers ..........................................................
Travel agents.......................................................................

6,780
332
39
293
31
316
573
1,329
2,867
60
50

6.967
337
42
296
32
361
583
1,320
2,916
78
62

8,535
449
53
396
47
447
724
1,652
3,472
106
86

8,771
450
53
396
47
452
743
1,707
3,601
107
88

8,911
453
53
400
48
458
749
1,730
3,670
109
88

Clerical workers.......................................................................
Adjustment clerks................................................................
Bank tellers..........................................................................
New accounts tellers .......................................................
Tellers..............................................................................
Bookkeepers and accounting clerks .....................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................
Bookkeepers-, hand ..........................................................
Cashiers...............................................................................

18,497
38
466
51
415
1,717
722
996
1,518

19,049
36
539
67
471
1,713
756
957
1,570

23,533
48
686
79
607
1,943
861
1,081
2,235

23,998
49
693
80
'6-43
1,985
876
1,109
2,314

Claims adjusters...................................................................
Claims clerks........................................................................
Claims examiners, insurance................................................
Clerical supervisors..............................................................
Collectors, bill and account...................................................
Court clerks..........................................................................
Credit clerks, banking and insurance.....................................
Customer service representatives.........................................
Desk clerks, except bowling flo o r.........................................
Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance..............................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o rk .....................................
Eligibility workers, welfare ...................................................
File clerks ............................................................................
General clerks, office............................................................
Insurance clerks, medical.....................................................
Library assistants .................................................................
Loan closers .......................................................................
Mail carriers and postal clerks..............................................
Postal mail carriers .........................................................
Postal service clerks .......................................................

67
66
39
434
88
28
50
86
82
51
87
34
293
2,377
78
80

66
66
47
467
94
27
50
89
88
48
90
32
295
2,348
86
81
45
541
234
307

99
94
61
618
133
29
76
120
107
52
111
32
316
2,990
137
94
63
439
206
233

98
93
62
628
135
29
76
124
107
53
113
32
321
3,044
139
96
64
474
223
252

37

29
44
43
14
31
8
48
12
9
55

High
trend

25
38
38
9
26
3
41
7
3
51

94
140
36
59




26
40
40
11
30
5
45
10
5
52

M oderate
trend

37
48
61
7
34

5,850
1.200
118
31
331
332
134
163
45
86

539
234
306

Low
trend

33
44
57
4
32

5,778
1,181
116
30
321
327
131
159
44
85

(D

1 9 8 2 -9 5
High
trend

32
42
55
3
28

4,636
856
84
28
256
317
92
148
43
57

(D

M oderate
trend

5,999
1,229
121
32
336
344
137
167
46
87
36
59
638
91
174
257
232
154

39
13
22
44

42
16
24
45

27
28
18
92 .
8
65
26

T a b l© 1 .

C © B ita n u © d — C i v i li a n © m p io y m e n fl in o c c u p a t io n s
Total em p lo ym en t (in thousands)

P ercent change

1995

Occupation
1979

1982

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

1979-95
High
trend

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

1982-95
High
trend

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

High
trend

Mail clerks ................................................... .......................
Messengers, except bank.....................................................
Meter readers, utilities..........................................................
Office machine operators .....................................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine operators .......................
Proof machine operators ..............................................
Computer operating pe^onnel ..........................................
Computer operators .....................................................
Data entry operators.....................................................
Peripheral EDP equipment operators ............................
Duplicating machine operators..........................................

88
42
29
893
174
46
548
190
319
40
31

100
47
31
936
172
47
580
211
320
49
38

132
60
37
1,179
218
59
727
366
282
79
44

131
61
38
1,196
223
59
737
371
286
80
45

135
63
38
1,220
227
60
752
378
292
82
46

51
42
30
32
25
28
33
93
-1 2
99
41

50
45
31
34
28
29
34
95
-1 0
102
43

54
48
33
37
31
31
37
99
-8
106
46

33
28
22
26
26
24
25
74
-1 2
61
16

31
31
24
28
29
25
27
76
-11
63
17

35
34
26
30
32
27
30
79
-9
66
19

Order clerks ........................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping clerks ............................................
Personnel clerks...................................................................
Policy change clerks ............................................................
Procurement clerks...............................................................
Production clerks .................................................................
Raters .................................................................................
Receptionists........................................................................

258
175
98
25
49
212
53
362

265
202
103
28
47
201
53
387

329
265
132
30
60
260
68
565

337
269
131
31
60
262
69
576

342
277
135
31
62
268
70
594

28
51
35
18
23
23
28
56

31
54
34
20
22
24
30
59

33
58
38
22
27
27
32
64

24
31
29
8
27
29
29
46

27
34
28
10
26
30
31
49

29
37
32
12
31
33
33
54

Reservation agents and transportation ticket clerks ..............
Reservation agents ..........................................................
Ticket agents ...................................................................
Secretaries and stenographers..............................................
Secretaries........................................................................
Stenographers .................................................................
Typists.................................................................................
Shipping and receiving clerks ..............................................
Shipping packers .................................................................
Statement clerks...................................................................

112
55
52
2,624
2,342
283
980
380
356
32

108
53
49
2,711
2,441
270
990
365
340
34

108
54
48
3,355
3,108
247
1,136
420
394
44

110
55
49
3,410
3,161
250
1,145
431
403
44

112
56
50
3,498
3,243
256
1,175
439
410
45

-4
-2
-7
28
33
-1 3
16
11
11
39

-2
0
-5
30
35
-1 2
17
13
13
40

-1

-3
33
38
-1 0
20
16
15
42

0
2
-3
24
27
-8
15
15
16
30

2
4
-1
26
29
-7
16
18
19
32

4
5
1
29
33
-5
19
20
21
34

Statistical clerks...................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ..............................
Survey workers ...................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists .....................................
Teachers' aides ...................................................................
Telephone operators ............................................................
Switchboard operators .....................................................
Central office operators.....................................................
Directory assistance operators..........................................
Town clerks..........................................................................

83
831
42
217
442
319
175
107
37
28

98
831
53
107
463
318
172
109
38
26

112
961
78
279
579
337
211
84
42
29

114
987
78
285
593
343
213
87
43
29

116
1,005
79
292
606
349
218
87
43
30

36
16
86
29
31
5
20
-21
13
3

37
19
87
32
34
8
22
-1 9
17
5

41
21
89
35
37
9
24
-1 8
17
7

15
16
46
35
25
6
23
-2 3
11
10

16
19
46
38
28
8
24
-2 0
15
12

18
21
48
41
31
10
27
-2 0
16
14

Craft and related workers..........................................................
Construction craftworkers.....................................................
Insulation workers............................................................
Bricklayers........................................................................
Carpenters........................................................................
Cement masons ...............................................................
Dry wall applicators..........................................................
Electricians ......................................................................
Floor covering installers ...................................................
Carpet cutters, carpet layers..........................................
Floor layers...................................................................

12,359
3,163
43
150
1,008
107
53
556
80
54
26

11,591
2,895
47
111
863
87
53
542
79
53
26

14,476
3,725
66
148
1,095
122
73
704
100
66
33

14,769
3,777
67
150
1,110
125
74
715
101
67
34

15,099
3,841
68
153
1,128
127
75
730
103
68
35

17
18
53
-1
9
14
36
27
25
23
30

20
19
56
0
10
17
39
29
27
25
32

22
21
59
2
12
19
41
31
29
26
35

25
29
41
34
27
41
36
30
26
25
28

27
30
44
36
29
44
39
32
29
28
30

30
33
46
38
31
46
41
35
30
29
33

Glaziers ............................................................................
Ironworkers .....................................................................
Reinforcing-iron workers ..............................................
Structural steel workers.................................................
Painters, construction and maintenance............................
Plumbers and pipefitters...................................................
Roofers.............................................................................

37
105
34
71
369
398
111

41
93
33
61
362
388
102

53
126
44
83
443
512
128

55
130
45
85
444
518
129

56
133
46
87
449
528
131

44
20
29
16
20
29
15

48
23
32
19
21
30
16

51
26
35
22
22
33
18

31
35
33
36
22
32
25

35
39
36
40
23
34
27

37
42
39
44
24
36
28

Mechanics, repairers, and installers .....................................
Air conditioning, refrigeration, and heating mechanics . . . .
Aircraft mechanics............................................................
Gas and electric appliance repairers...................................
Automotive body repairers.................................................
Automotive mechanics .....................................................
Coin machine servicers and repairers................................
Central office repairers .....................................................
Computer service technicians............................................
Diesel mechanics...............................................................
Cable splicers...................................................................
Line installers, repairers ...................................................

4,039
175
107
61
159
871
27
49

5,004
220
132
71
191
1,134
38
47
106
216
59
154

5,107
223
128
72
196
1,168
39
49
108
222
60
157

5,223
228
131
74
201
1,195
40
49
108
226
61
159

24
25
23
17
20
30
43
-4

26
27
19
20
23
34
47
-1

29
30
22
23
26
37
52
0

175
47
113

3,936
168
108
62
155
844
31
50
55
173
48
127

(D

0)

0)

30
30
41

27
31
22
14
23
34
24
-6
93
25
24
21

30
33
19
17
26
38
28
-2
97
28
25
23

33
36
21
20
30
42
32
-2
98
31
27
25

Engineering equipment mechanics.....................................
Farm equipment mechanics..............................................
Instrument repairers..........................................................
Industrial machinery repairers ..........................................
Maintenance repairers, general utility.................................
Marine mechanics and repairers........................................
Millwrights........................................................................
Office machine repairers...................................................

77
25
40
366
733
26
108
53

83
26
41
330
694
26
91
56

93
27
50
416
870
36
118
94

94
27
51
425
887
36
121
95

96
28
53
438
908
36
124
96

21
8
25
14
19
36
10
78

22
10
27
16
21
36
12
82

24
10
31
20
24
36
15
83

12
4
22
26
25
35
30
68

13
5
24
29
28
35
33
72

15
6
27
33
31
36
36
73




(D

38

24
26
37

27
28
39

1

Table 1.

C o n tinued— C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations
P ercent change

Total em p lo ym en t (in thousands)
O ccupation

1 9 7 9 -9 5

199 5
197 9

198 2

Low
trend

Moderate
trend

High
trend

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

1 9 8 2 -9 5
High
trend

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

High
trend

Radio and television service technicians............................
Installers, repairers, section maintainers .........................
Station installers ..............................................................

71
73
58

80
75
59

101
97
69

102
100
72

105
100
72

42
33
20

45
37
24

48
38
25

25
28
18

27
32
21

30
33
22

Metalworking craftworkers, except mechanics.......................
Boilermakers ...................................................................
Machinists.......................................................................
Machine tool setters, metalworking..................................
Molders, m etal.................................................................
Sheet-metal workers and tinsmiths ..................................
Tool and die makers .......................................................

941
45
239
65
34
213
176

818
40
220
55
25
188
152

995
42
271
67
29
248
179

1,019
43
278
68
29
252
184

1,051
44
287
70
30
260
190

6
-6
13
2
-1 4
16
2

8
-5
16
4
-1 2
18
5

12
-2
20
7
-9
22
8

22
6
23
22
13
32
18

25
8
26
25
16
34
21

29
11
30
28
20
38
25

Printing trades craftworkers ................................................
Bookbinders.....................................................................
Typesetters and compositors............................................
Lithographers and photoengravers ...................................
Letter press operators .....................................................
Offset lithographic press operators ..................................
Press operators and plate printers.....................................

382
29
103
66
33
86
37

393
30
104
67
34
88
42

429
34
99
83
34
107
44

447
36
97
87
36
113
45

457
37
99
89
37
115
47

12
16
-9
26
4
24
19

17
22
-6
33
9
30
23

20
24
-4
35
11
33
27

9
14
-1 0
23
1
22
5

14
20
-7
29
6
28
8

16
23
-5
32
8
31
12

Other craft and related workers ............................................
Bakers ............................................................................
Supervisors of blue-collar workers ..................................
Cabinetmakers ................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators..................................
Dental lab technicians.......................................................
Opticians, dispensing and optical mechanics.....................
Furniture upholsterers .....................................................
Heavy equipment operators..............................................
Inspectors.......................................................................

3,833
64
1,295
79
127
48
35
30
443
468

3,549
65
1,200
78
105
51
31
37
384
410

4,324
73
1,482
95
128
63
38
40
480
520

4,419
76
1,519
96
132
64
39
40
490
529

4,527
78
1,553
99
134
65
40
42
500
543

13
15
15
20
1
31
9
33
8
11

15
19
17
22
4
32
12
34
11
13

18
22
20
25
6
35
15
39
13
16

22
12
24
22
22
25
22
7
25
27

24
17
27
24
25
26
25
8
28
29

28
19
30
27
27
28
29
12
30
32

Jewelers ..........................................................................
Locomotive engineers.......................................................
Merchandise displayers and window trimmers..................
Stationary engineers.........................................................
Alteration tailors ..............................................................
Testers ............................................................................
Sewage plant operators ...................................................
Water treatment plant operators.......................................

26
49
27
61
55
119
40
30

30
38
27
58
54
116
38
28

33
37
37
60
72
151
41
30

34
39
38
61
75
152
42
31

35
42
39
62
157
43
32

26
-2 6
38
-2
31
27
2
2

29
-21
43
-1
36
28
4
4

32
-1 5
45
2
40
31
7
7

11
-4
39
3
32
30
9
9

13
3
43
4
37
31
10
10

17
10
46
7
41
35
13
13

Operatives ..............................................................................
Assembler occupations .......................................................
Aircraft structure assemblers............................................
Assemblers .....................................................................
Electrical machinery equipment assemblers.......................
Electrical and electronic assemblers..................................
Instrument assemblers.....................................................
Machine assemblers..........................................................
Wirers, electronic ............................................................

14,039
1,459
33
361
99
281
29
202
38

12,995
1,313
33
307
99
286
29
170
37

15,044
1,625
28
363
131
365
43
210
50

15,419
1,646
26
379
133
362
43
214
50

15,809
1,702
26
398
137
371
44
222
52

7
11
-1 4
1
32
30
48
4
33

10
13
-1 9
5
34
29
49
6
31

13
17
-2 0
10
38
32
52
10
35

16
24
-1 5
18
33
28
45
23
36

19
25
-21
23
34
27
46
25
34

22
30
-21
30
38
30
49
30
39

Bindery workers, assembly...................................................
Laundry operators, small establishment................................
Pressers, hand .....................................................................
Pressers, machine ..............................................................
Pressers, machine laundry ...................................................
Washers, machine and starchers.........................................
Meatcutters and butchers.....................................................
Metalworking operatives.......................................................
Electroplators...................................................................

37
38
30
54
70
54
59
1,726
36

38
38
27
50
64
58
57
1,492
32

39
44
30
51
68
78
62
1,767
34

41
44
31
52
69
79
63
1,813
35

42
45
31
54
74
82
64
1,874
36

8
17
2
-6
-3
45
5
2
-4

13
17
4
-4
-1
47
6
5
-1

15
19
3
0
5
52
8
9
2

5
16
13
2
5
35
9
18
7

10
17
14
4
7
37
10
21
11

12
18
14
8
14
42
12
26
13

Machine tool operators.....................................................
Drill press and boring machine operators .....................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal .........
Lathe machine operators, metal ..................................
Milling and planing machine operators .........................
Machine too! operators, combination ............................
Machine tool operators, numerical control.....................
Machine tool operators, tool room ................................
Punch press operators, m etal.......................................
Power brake and bending machine operators, metal . , .
Shear and slitter operators, metal ................................
Welders and flamecutters ................................................

1,070
136
138
159
68
193
73
41
181
49
32
548

914
115
118
137
61
169
66
34
147
42
27
490

1,088
137
126
155'
68
217
94
43
167
51
32
579

1,114
139
129
159
69
220
95
44
173
53
33
595

1,153
144
133
164
71
229
99
45
180
55
34
615

2
1
-9
-2
-1
13
28
6
-8
4
-2
6

4
3
-7
0
1
14
30
8
-5
8
2
8

8
6
-4
3
4
19
35
11
-1
12
6
12

19
19
7
14
12
29
42
25
14
22
18
18

22
21
10
16
13
31
44
27
18
27
23
21

26
25
13
20
17
36
49
31
22
32
27
26

Roustabouts ........................................................................
Baggers ..............................................................................
Production packagers ..........................................................
Painters, automotive ............................................................
Painters, production .........................................................
Sawyers ............................................................................
Sewers and stitchers............................................................
Sewing machine operatives, regular equipment, garment
Sewing machine operatives, special equipment, garment
Sewing machine operatives, regular equipment,
nongarment .................................................................
Sewing machine operatives, special equipment,
nongarment ...................................................

67
224
560
41
118
89
902
594
88

94
242
548
36
101
75
804
533
78

78
219
616
51
115
91
869
561
84

80
229
637
53
118
93
882
567
85

80
234
654
55
122
96
873
556
83

17
-2
10
24
-3
2
-4
-5
-4

20
2
14
28
0
4

19
4
17
32
3
8
-3
-6
-5

-1 6
-9
12
41
14
21
8
5
8

-1 4
-5
16
46
17
24
10
7
9

-1 5
-4
19
51
21
28
9
4
7

145

128

152

155

158

4

7

8

19

22

24

47

42

48

50

51

4

7

9

16

19

21




39

77

-2

-4
-3

T a b le 1 .

C o n t i n u e J — C i v i li a n e m p l o y m e n t in o c c u p a t io n s
Total e m ploym ent (in thousands)
Occupation

P ercent change

1995
1979

1982

Textile operatives ................................................................
Spinners, frame ..............................................................
Weavers ..........................................................................
Transport equipment operatives............................................
Ambulance drivers and ambulance attendants ..................
Busdrivers.......................................................................
Busdrivers, local and intercity.......................................
Busdrivers, school .......................................................

368
31
36
3,694
26
443
216
226

312
26
30
3,551
28
473
229
244

345
25
31
4,181
34
537
249
288

352
25'
31
4,287
35
551
257
295

Chauffeurs.......................................................................
Forklift and tow motor operatives .....................................
Parking attendants............................................................
Railroad brake operators...................................................
Sailors and deckhands .....................................................
Taxi drivers .....................................................................
Truckdriving occupations ................................................
Delivery and route workers............................................
Truckdrivers ................................................................

42
421
36
78
33
72
2,506
813
1,693

48
376
37
60
32
64
2,402
797
1,604

61
433
37
50
33
52
2,909
924
1,985

All other operatives..............................................................
Dressmakers, except factory ............................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers..............................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators ..............................
Stationary boiler firers .....................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, meat and dairy
products .....................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food products
Miscellaneous machine operatives, lumber and furniture . .
Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper and allied
products .....................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied
products .....................................................................
Chemical operators-A ..................................................
Chemical operators-B ..................................................

4,145
54
130
406
46

3,805
61
107
388
44

45
73
47

42
71
39

Low
trend

Moderate
trend

1979-95
High
trend

1982-95

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

High
trend

Low
trend

359
25
31
4,387
36
572
271
301

-6
-21
-1 4
13
29
21
15
27

-5
-2 0
-1 3
16
32
24
19
30

-3
-1 8
-1 2
19
38
29
25
33

11
-5
3
18
23
13
9
18

13
-4
4
21
26
17
12
21

15
-2
6
24
32
21
18
23

63
445
38
54
34
52
2,980
951
2,029

65
458
40
58
35
53
3,035
967
2,068

44
3
3
-3 5
0
-2 8
16
14
17

48
6
6
-31
3
-2 8
19
17
20

53
9
10
-2 6
5
-2 6
21
19
22

27
15
1
-1 6
3.
-2 0
21
16
24

30
18
4
-1 0
7
-1 9
24
19
26

34
22
8
-4
8
-1 7
26
21
29

4,413
66
134
430
45

4,544
66
137
451
45

4,666
66
142
462
47

6
23
3
6
-2

10
22
6
11
-1

13
23
9
14
2

16
8
26
11
1

19
8
29
16
2

23
9
33
19
6

39
75
49

40
78
50

41
80
52

-1 4
3
4

-11
7
6

-9
9
10

-9
6
25

-6
10
28

-3
13
32

M oderate
trend

High
trend

99

92

97

100

105

-2

1

6

5

9

14

153
55
27

146
54
26

172
64
31

178
66
31

183
63
32

13
16
14

16
19
17

20
22
21

18
19
18

22
23
22

25
26
25

213
28

190
26

251
35

267
37

277
39

18
25

25
34

30
39

32
36

40
46

45
51

101
50
86
90
40
102
229
50
25

93
41
69
83
39
86
218
48
26

131
49
82
99
42
103
231
50
30

140
51
85
102
44
108
238
50
31

144
53
88
104
45
112
242
51
32

29
-3
-5
11
6
1
1
0
16

38
2
-1
13
10
5
4
1
23

42
6
2
16
12
10
6
3
25

41
20
18
20
7
19
6
4
14

50
25
22
23
11
25
9
6
20

55
31
26
26
13
30
11
8
22

Mixing operatives ............................................................
Oilers ..............................................................................
Photographic process workers.........................................
Rotary drill operators.......................................................
Rotary drill operator helpers ............................................
Shoemaking machine operators .......................................
Surveyor helpers..............................................................
Tire changers...................................................................
Coil winders.....................................................................

43
43
70
22
31
60
50
60
28

41
36
67
28
33
52
40
60
27

43
44
77
27
29
34
61
83
32

45
45
78
28
29
36
63
86
32

46
46
80
28
30
34
65
88
33

2
3
9
24
-6
-4 3
22
39
13

6
5
11
26
-4
-4 0
26
45
13

8
8
14
27
-3
-4 3
30
48
18

5
21
15
-2
-1 4
-3 3
54
39
19

9
24
17
-1
-1 2
-3 0
59
45
19

12
27
20
0
-11
-3 4
64
48
24

Service workers........................................................................
Building custodians..............................................................
Food service workers............................................................
Bakers, bread and pastry ................................................
Bartenders........................................................................
Butchers and meatcutters ................................................
Cooks and chefs ..............................................................
Cooks, institutional.......................................................
Cooks, restaurant.........................................................
Cooks, short order and specialty fast foods..................

15,660
2,796
5,906
35
364
184
1,161
406
330
424

16,241
2,828
6,204
36
384
191
1,211
423
351
437

20,416
3,554*
8,113
46
500
173
1,591
527
494
570

20,706
3,606
8,221
46
505
179
1,613
536
500
578

21,113
3,682
8,322
47
511
182
1,636
549
505
582

30
27
37
31
37
-6
37
30
50
34

32
29
39
32
39
-3
39
32
51
36

35
32
41
33
40
-1
41
35
53
37

26
26
31
27
30
-9
31
25
41
31

27
28
33
28
32
-6
33
27
42
32

30
30
34
30
33
-5
35
30
44
33

Food preparation and service workers, fast food
restaurants...................................................................
Flosts/hostesses, restaurant, lounge, coffee shop..............
Kitchen helpers.................................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers ..............................
Waiters and waitresses.....................................................
Waiters assistants............................................................
All other food service workers .........................................

757
110
822
77
1,599
283
515

809
113
850
84
1,665
302
559

1 092
152
1,139
111
2,199
384
726

1 106
154
1,155
112
2,227
388
734

1 113
155
1,174
114
2,249
394
748

44
38
39
43
38
36
41

46
40
41
45
39
37
43

47
41
43
47
41
39
45

35
34
34
32
32
27
30

36
36
34
34
29
31

37
38
36
35
30
34

Selected health service workers............................................
Dental assistants............................................................
Licensed practical nurses .................. ...........................

1,980
129
524

2,240
153
594

3,038

3,066
218
815

3,166
229
841

53
65
54

55
69
55

60
77
60

36
39
36

37
42
37

41
49
41

Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and
miscellaneous plastics...................................................
Extruder operators, rubber or plastics .........................
Compression and injection mold machine operators,
plastics.....................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, stone, clay, and glass
Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary metals...........
Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec. . .
Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing . . . .
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, durable goods..................
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable goods ...........
Poultry dressers, eviscerators.......................................
Press assistants and feeders .......................................




213

40

Tab le 1.

C on tin u ed — C ivilian em ploym ent in occupations
P ercent change

Total e m ploym ent (in thousands)
Occupation

197 9

198 2

Medical assistants............................................................
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants............................
Pharmacy helpers ............................................................
Psychiatric aides..............................................................

88
1,087
29
115

100
1,218
33
132

Selected personal service workers .......................................
Barbers ............................................................................
Bellhops, bag porters, and doorkeepers............................
Child-care attendants .....................................................
Child-care workers.....................................................
Cosmetologists/women’s hairstylists ................................

1,518
110
26
39
396
483

1,632
115
26
47
414
491

54

Low
trend

809
146
1,628
45

54
53
101
72
35
40
93

Flight attendants ..............................................................
Game and ride operators and concession workers ...........
Housekeepers, hotel and motel.........................................
Recreation facility attendants ............................................
Reducing instructors .......................................................
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers.......................
Welfare service aides .......................................................
Correction officials and jailers .........................................
Crossing or bridge tenders ..............................................
Crossing guards, school...................................................
Firefighters........................................................................
Fire officers .....................................................................
Guards and doorkeepers...................................................
Lifeguards ........................................................................

(D
(D

64
24
41
92

1,752
112
28
40
213
49
645
(D

1,707
111
27
38
201
46
635
34

1,930
126
28
56
495
577
68
62
130
87
44
38
116
2,121
145
29
42
214
51
925
43

M oderate
trend

1 9 8 2 -9 5

1 9 7 9 -9 5

199 5
High
trend

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

High
trend

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

High
trend

148
1,642
46
185

154
1,690
47
192

65
50
56
60

67
51
57
60

74
55
62
66

45
34
38
40

47
35
38
41

53
39
43
46

1,961
127
29
57
499
589

2,010
129
29
58
504
604

27
14
7
43
25
19

29
15
9
45
26
22

32
17
11
48
27
25

18
9
9
20
19
17

20
10
10
21
20
20

23
12
13
24
22
23

69
63
130
88
46
39
119

70
66
133
92
51
41
122

27
17
29
21
29
-4
26

29
19
29
23
34
-2
28

30
24
32
27
46
4
32

2,146
147
29
42
217
52
935
44

2,194
150
30
43
223
53
950
46

26
33
8
12
8
12
47
31

29
36
11
14
11
14
50
36

26

27

29

(D
(D

(D
(D

(D
(D

35
88
-6
27

37
96
-4
29

42
114
1
33

21
30
3
3
0
3
44

22
31
5
5
2
5
45

25
35
8
7
4
7
47

(D

(D

(D

24
31
6
10
7
10
46
29

608
71
110
400
864
285

1
12
4
0
-2 5
35

2
9
5
2
-2 2
37

5
14
8
4
-21
39

7
17
10
6
-2 0
31

8
14
10
7
-1 7
33

11
19
14
10
-1 6
36

Police and detectives, public service ................................
Police detectives ..........................................................
Police officers ..............................................................
Police patrolmen/women ..............................................
Private household workers ...................................................
Supervisors, nonworking, service.........................................

578
62
102
383
1,088
205

549
59
97
363
1,023
210

586
69
106
383
275

592
68
107
390
850
279

Laborers, except fa rm ..............................................................
Animal caretakers.................................................................
Cannery workers...................................................................
Cleaners, vehicle .................................................................
Conveyor operators and tenders............................................
Garbage collectors ..............................................................
Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm .......................
Helpers, trades ...................................................................
Highway maintenance workers..............................................
Line service attendants .......................................................
Pipelayers............................................................................
Riggers ...............................................................................
Stock handlers................ .....................................................
Order fillers .....................................................................
Stock clerks, sales flo o r ...................................................
Fallers and buckers..............................................................

6,257
91
61
119
51
115
646
1,023
173
29
47
30
938
356
581
45

5,861
105
56
100
46
110
661
608
165
30
42
27
962
355
608
39

6,884
119
67
133
53
127
732
777
172
41
56
33
1,111
420
691
35

7,052
120
69
138
54
129
744
798
175
41
57
33
1,150
430
721
35

7,215
123
71
143
56
133
759
819
179
42
58
34
1,171
435
736
36

10
31
10
11
3
11
13
-2 4
0
39
18
11
18
18
19
-2 3

13
33
12
16
6
12
15
-2 2
1
41
21
12
23
21
24
-2 2

15
35
16
20
8
16
17
-2 0
4
42
23
15
25
22
27
-2 0

17
14
20
32
14
15
11
28
4
36
32
23
15
18
14
-1 0

20
15
23
38
18
17
13
31
6
38
35
24
20
21
19
-9

23
17
27
43
21
20
15
35
9
39
37
27
22
23
21
-7

Farmers and farmworkers .......................................................
Farmers and farm managers................................................
Farm owners and tenants ................................................
Farm managers.................................................................
Farm supervisors and laborers ............................................
Farm supervisors..............................................................
Farm laborers...................................................................

2,704
1,447
1,405
42
1,257
33
1,224

2,691
1,448
1,407
40
1,243
33
1,211

2,404
1,370
1,319
51
1,034
31
1,003

2,407
1,357
1,304
52
1,050
31
1,019

2,424
1,359
1,305
53
1,065
32
1,033

-11
-5
-6
21
-1 8
-7
-1 8

-11
-6
-7
24
-1 6
-5
-1 7

-1 0
-6
-7
26
-1 5
-3
-1 6

-11
-5
-6
27
-1 7
-6
-1 7

-11
-6
-7
30
-1 6
-4
-1 6

-1 0
-6
-7
32
-1 4
-2

-1 5

1Data not available.

The growth of occupations concentrated in the construc­
tion and manufacturing industries, which was severely af­
fected by jthe 1980-82 recession, includes recovery from
the trough of that period. As a result, the data on growth
patterns of occupations must be interpreted very carefully.
For this reason, the data on growth presented in table 1
include employment data for 1979 (prerecessionary) and
1979-95 growth rates.2

nomic and industry alternatives presented elsewhere in this
issue of the Review. Although the assumptions and analyses
that differentiate these scenarios result in different rates of
growth for most occupations, the basic changes in the oc­
cupational composition from 1982 to 1995 are similar in all
versions. Thus, although this article focuses on the “ mod­
erate” scenario, the discussion would be very similar if any
of the other scenarios were highlighted. However, the major
differences in trends between the alternate scenarios are
reported in the final section of this article. The alternative
projections are also shown in table 1 for all detailed oc­
cupations.

Alternative sets of projections
The Bureau has developed three alternative sets of oc­
cupational employment projections that are tied to the eco­




41

maintain their relative share of total employment, a share
which has not changed significantly over the past two de­
cades. On the other hand, operatives and laborers should
continue their long-term decline as a proportion of total
employment, as their growth is impacted by the effects of
technological change and the relatively faster growth of the
service sector. Private household workers are expected to
continue to decline numerically as well as in proportion to
total employment.
Major changes in long-term trends in the broad occupa­
tional structure, however, are expected in clerical and in
farming occupations. Although the number of clerical work­
ers is expected to continue to increase, the effects of office
automation should result in average growth rather than in
the faster than average growth which has occurred over the
past two decades. Farming occupations which have declined
significantly throughout the century are expected to continue
to decrease but somewhat more slowly than in the past.
However, farming occupations should drop significantly as
a proportion of total employment between 1982 and 1995.
Broad occupational trends tend to mask much of the dy­
namic changes in occupational structures that have occurred
and are expected to occur over the projections period. Within
each broad occupational group, detailed occupational trends
will be affected by technological changes and by alterations
in the basic structure of industrial growth. The latter changes
are extremely important because occupational growth is very
closely related to changes in employment of industries in
which they are concentrated. The following sections of this
article discuss the growth of individual occupations and
highlight many of the basic changes in occupational em­
ployment that are anticipated over the period.

Differences in the occupational projections among the
three alternatives should not be considered as the potential
range within which the projections are likely to fall because
the range for most occupations is much wider than that
shown. The majority of occupations are sensitive to a wide
variety of assumptions and economic factors and all of these
could not be considered in the three scenarios.
One should keep in mind that the development of pro­
jections is not a precise statistical process. Despite the use
of sophisticated economic models and the use of data in
those models that are carefully developed by statistical tech­
niques, the future cannot be precisely predicted. Too many
factors can alter economic activity over the 1982-95 period
to assure that the projections provide an exact picture of the
future. This is very evident if one reviews previous em­
ployment projections developed by the Bureau or any other
organization.3
The projections developed by the Bureau reflect very
detailed analyses of the factors that are expected to affect
occupational trends in addition to those factors built into
the model. Thus, the occupational projections presented in
this article reflect the analyses and judgments of Bureau
staff who are involved in this development. Some of these
judgments are fairly subjective, and therefore, open to ques­
tion. For example, in developing projected occupational
staffing patterns for automobile manufacturing, judgments
had to be made about the actual use of robots and other
production processes in the industry during 1982-95. Clearly,
at this stage of the development and use of robots in au­
tomobile manufacturing, such judgments are highly subjec­
tive.
Despite these analytical problems in developing precise
projections of the future, our experience has indicated that
basic trends in occupational structure can be approximated
through the types of analyses described. Growth trends have
proved to be correct for most occupations in previous sets
of projections. We are hopeful that our experience and im­
proved techniques and data bases will result in projections
that present the general trends in employment by occupation
during 1982-95.

Detailed occupations
The economy is expected to generate an additional 25.6
million jobs between 1982 and 1995. About one-half of this
job growth is projected to occur in only 40 of the 1,700
occupations (see table 2) for which projections were de­
veloped. Several points should be kept in mind in reviewing
these occupations which will account for the greatest number
of additional jobs. In general, the occupations are numer­
ically large and all had more than 250,000 workers in 1982.
Occupations that require extensive training are not found to
any greater extent in table 2 than are those requiring little
formal training. Only one-fourth of the occupations gen­
erally require a college degree.
Several of the occupations on the list reflect recovery
from very low 1982 employment levels caused by the reces­
sion. For example, helpers, trade; supervisors of blue-collar
workers; and carpenters are on the list only because of the
sharp drop in employment experienced from 1979 to 1982.
Most of the employment growth reflects recovery to prerecessionary levels.
A list of the fastest growing occupations from 1982 to

Broad structural changes
The impact of technological change, differences in in­
dustrial growth patterns, and other factors that have a sig­
nificant impact on occupations will result in changes in the
broad occupational structure between 1982 and 1995. How­
ever, the direction of these changes will be very similar to
changes that have occurred over the past several decades.
Professional and technical workers will continue to increase
faster than total employment and account for a greater share
of total employment in 1995 than in 1982. Service workers,
excluding private household workers, also will continue to
grow faster than average. Managers, salesworkers, and craftworkers will continue to increase at about average rates and




42

T a b le 2.
1 9 8 2 -9 5

in expenditures for health services, occupations in this field
have been among the fastest growing for many years. Even
during 1979-82, when total employment was virtually un­
changed, employment in health occupations grew signifi­
cantly. Continued population growth and expansion of health
care insurance coverage are primary reasons underlying the
expected continued growth. In addition, the aged, requiring
the most health care, are expected to increase their share of
the U.S. population. While the population is expected to
go up by only 14 percent between 1980 and 1995, those
over 65 years of age will increase by 26 percent.
The number of registered nurses is expected to grow by
49 percent between 1982 and 1995, an additional 642,000
jobs. Physicians are projected to increase by 34 percent,
faster than the average for all occupations, and add 163,000
jobs. Nursing aides and orderlies should add 423,000 new
jobs and licensed practical nurses, 220,000 jobs, both rep­
resenting faster than average growth. Overall, these four
occupations are projected to account for almost 6 percent
of the total employment growth over the period.
Among the smaller and faster growing occupations, phys­
ical therapy technicians are projected to increase by 68 per­
cent, occupational therapists by 60 percent, physical therapists
by 54 percent, and medical assistants by 47 percent.

F o rty o c c u p a tio n s w ith la rg e s t jo b g ro w th ,
Change in
total employment
(in thousands)
779
744
719
696
685
642
562

Percent of
total
job growth
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.2

Percent
change

511
425
423
386

2.0
1.7
1.7
1.5

37.4
26.5
34.8
29.3

Accountants and auditors ................
Automotive mechanics .....................
Supervisors of blue-collar workers . .
Kitchen helpers................................
Guards and doorkeepers..................
Food preparation and service workers,
fast food restaurants.....................
Managers, store ..............................
Carpenters.......................................
Electrical and electronic technicians
Licensed practical nurses ................

344
324
319
305
300

1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2

40.2
38.3
26.6
35.9
47.3

297
292
247
222
220

1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.9

36.7
30.1
28.6
60.7
37.1

Computer systems analysts..............
Electrical engineers .........................
Computer programmers ..................
Maintenance repairers, general utility
Helpers, trades................................
Receptionists ...................................
Electricians.......................................
Physicians .......................................
Clerical supervisors .........................
Computer operators.........................
Sales representatives, nontechnical . .

217
209
205
193
190
189
173
163
162
160
160

.8
.8
.8
.8
.7
.7
.7
.7
.6
.6
.6

85.3
65.3
76.9
27.8
31.2
48.8
31.8
34.0
34.6
75.8
27.4

Lawyers............................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and
warehouse ...................................
Typists ............................................
Delivery and route workers ..............
Bookkeepers, hand .........................
Cooks, restaurants............................
Bank tellers .....................................
, Cooks, short order, specialty and fast
food ............................................

159

.6

34.3

156
155
153
152
149
142

.6
.6
.6
.6
.6
.6

18.8
15.7
19.2
15.9
42.3
30.0

141

.6

32.2

Occupation
Building custodians .........................
Cashiers ..........................................
Secretaries.......................................
General clerks, office .......................
Salesclerks.......................................
Nurses, registered............................
Waiters and waitresses.....................
Teachers, kindergarten and
elementary ...................................
Truckdrivers.....................................
Nursing aides and orderlies..............
Sales representatives, technical . . . .

27.5
47.4
29.5
29.6
23.5
48.9
33.8

Computer-related occupations. Computers are expected to
continue to have more widespread use throughout the econ­
omy through the mid-1990’s. As a result, occupations that
are directly related to computer development and use will
be among the leaders in employment growth rates over the
period. The number of systems analysts and computer pro­
grammers should expand at a very rapid rate through 1995.
As more uses are found for computers in business and ev­
eryday life, software development will experience tremen­
dous growth.
Most industry forecasts indicate that there will be more
than 10 times as many computers in use during the next
decade than exist today. This will translate into an increased
demand for additional computer service technicians to main­
tain the equipment.
Recently, the focus has been on the micro- and mini­
computers. Mainframe (large) computers have mostly been
overlooked. In 1982, mainframe sales stood at $10 billion
representing the largest segment of the computer machine
market. Fifth-generation machines are expected to be intro­
duced in the early 1990’s, and sales are projected to grow
significantly by 1995. Therefore, this means strong growth
in the number of computer and peripheral equipment op­
erators needed by 1995.

Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more.
Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections.

1995 is shown in table 3. Although the list is dominated by
occupations that are tied to continued growth of expanding
industries and which have been among the strongest in the
economy for the past decade, many reflect recovery from
the recession. It is also important to note that these fast
growing occupations generally are not found on the list of
occupations that will add the most jobs over the period.
Almost half of the 20 occupations in the list are either in
the computer or health fields, which are among the fields
with the strongest growth.
Some occupations are expected to decline over the period.
(See table 4.) In general, occupations on the list are con­
centrated in industries that are contracting, or severely af­
fected by technological change. For example, railroad
conductors are concentrated in a declining industry, while
data entry operators are affected by technological change.

Education-related occupations. The growth of employment
in many occupations in the education field is closely tied to
the size of the school-age population. Although births de­
clined steadily during 1961-75, the number of children born
each year has grown steadily since 1976 and is expected to

Health-related, occupations. Health care will continue to be
an expanding field of work during 1982-95. Reflecting growth




43

Table 3.

mechanical engineers. More civil engineers will be needed
to meet the demands of a rejuvenated construction industry.
Petroleum engineers on the other hand should experience
average growth as oil supplies stabilize and new drilling
moderates.
Chemists will be affected by a diminished growth of the
chemical industry and geologists and geophysicists by a
slowdown in oil and gas extraction. Therefore, both oc­
cupations are expected to grow only as fast as average. A
fairly strong demand for biological scientists is expected
due to the growth of the drug industry. Electrical and elec­
tronic technicians, mechanical engineering technicians, and
civil engineering technicians should experience strong growth
similar to their engineer counterparts. Drafters is one im­
portant occupation in this group to fall victim to new tech­
nology. As computer-assisted design equipment gains more
widespread use, the growth of this occupation will be vir­
tually nil.

T w en ty fastest grow ing occupations, 1 9 8 2 -9 5
Occupation

Percent growth in
em ploym ent

Computer service technicians
Legal assistants ...............................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................
Computer programmers...................................................
Computer operators ........................................................
Office machine repairers...................................................
Physical therapy assistants..............................................
Electrical engineers..........................................................
Civil engineering technicians............................................
Peripheral EDP equipment operators.................................

96.8
94.3
85.3
76.9
75.8
71.7
67.8
65.3
63.9
63.5

Insurance clerks, medical.................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians ................................
Occupational therapists ...................................................
Surveyor helpers ............................................................
Credit clerks, banking and insurance.................................
Physical therapists ..........................................................
Employment interviewers .................................................
Mechanical engineers .....................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians .................................
Compression and injection mold machine operators,
plastics........................................................................

62.2
60.7
59.8
58.6
54.1
53.6
52.5
52.1
51.6
50.3

Note: Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more.
Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections.

Office clerical workers. Most office clerical occupations are
expected to grow more slowly during 1982-95 than in the
1970’s because of office automation. Nevertheless, signif­
icant growth is expected in some of these occupations. Re­
ceptionists should be among the fastest growing clerical
occupations, with a projected increase of 49 percent. Be­
cause of the varied responsibilities and the need for human
interaction, it is difficult to replace this occupation with a
machine. Secretaries will increasingly use advanced office
equipment in the future, thereby becoming more productive.
This in turn will dampen demand for the occupation. Never­
theless, secretaries are projected to grow at a rate that is
about average because of the growth of industries in which
they are concentrated.

continue until 1987. Because of this increase in births and
the expected continued growth in the labor force partici­
pation of mothers of young children, employment of pre­
school teachers is expected to surge during 1982-95,
increasing by more than 40 percent. Kindergarten and el­
ementary schoolteachers as well as teachers’ aides are an­
ticipated to grow substantially as growth in the youth
population works its way through the educational system.
The increase in the school-age population will not affect
secondary schools until early in the 1990’s. Therefore, sec­
ondary schoolteachers are expected to decline in numbers
until 1990 and then turn around. Overall, between 1982 and
1995, this occupation should experience only minimal growth.
At the post-secondary level, vocational education teachers
can be expected to grow at a strong pace. Growth of job
training and retraining programs will be reflected in in­
creased demand for this occupation. However, college and
university teachers are projected to decline during 1982-95
because of a drop in the college-age population and because
of higher tuition.

Tab le 4. Tw e n ty m ost rapidly declining occupations,
1 9 8 2 -9 5
Occupation

Railroad conductors ........................................................
Shoemaking machine operatives .....................................
Aircraft structure assemblers............................................
Central telephone office operators ...................................
Taxi drivers......................................................................
Postal clerks ....................................................................
Private household workers ...............................................
Farm laborers .................................................................
College and university faculty ..........................................

-3 2 .0

Roustabouts .....................................................................
Postmasters and mail superintendents ............................
Rotary drill operator helpers ............................................
Graduate assistants..........................................................
Data entry operators ...................................................
Railroad brake operators .................................................
Fallers and buckers..........................................................
Stenographers .............................................................
Farm owners and tenants...............................................
Typesetters and compositors............................................
Butchers and meatcutters.................................................

Scientific and technical occupations. Many scientific and
technical occupations are expected to grow rapidly over the
period, benefiting from the growth of high-technology in­
dustries. However, some will be negatively affected by the
products of high technology and others will grow more
sluggishly than average because they are concentrated in
slowly growing industries.
Engineering occupations are expected to provide nearly
600,000 new jobs by 1995, as the occupation is expected
to grow much faster than average. As manufacturing in­
dustries, primarily durable goods, rebound from the reces­
sion and place new technologies into their production systems,
there will be heavy demands for electrical, industrial, and




Percent decline
in em p lo ym en t

-14.4
-13.8
-11.6
-11.2
-10.6
-9 8
-8 .7
-7 .4
-7 .3
-7 .3
-6 .3

-30.2
-21.0
-20.0
-18.9
-17.9
-16.9
-15.9
-15.0

N o te:
Includes only detailed occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more.
Data for 1995 are based on moderate-trend projections.

44

Transportation occupations. As economic activity in­
creases, so does the demand for transporting goods. Tech­
nological change has not radically affected the trucking
industry, therefore, a rising demand for its services brings
about roughly proportional increases in the employment of
truckdrivers. Truckdrivers are projected to show average
growth but, because of its large size, add almost 424,000
jobs. Double trailers and larger trucks will dampen em­
ployment growth among long-haul truckdrivers as will com­
petition for long-haul business from railroad transportation.
Ambulance drivers are expected to have average em­
ployment growth. Busdrivers and industrial truck operators
should experience below average growth rates. Technolog­
ical change may have a greater impact on industrial truck
operators, who move materials from one location to another
within factories and warehouses. Industrial truck operators
are projected to increase by 70,000, which largely reflects
recovery from the decline in manufacturing employment
during 1980-82.

Most other office clerical occupations including typists
will be growing more slowly than the average rate for all
occupations. The expected increase in typing work will be
in significant part taken care of by the increased use of word
processing equipment. Stenographers is the one office oc­
cupation which has been declining and should continue to
do so during the period.
Mechanics and repairers. The increasing complexity of
equipment used by industry and by consumers is expected
to provide continued steady growth for mechanics and re­
pairers. Automotive mechanics are projected to grow faster
than average— about 38 percent from 1982 to 1995— and
because of the occupation’s large size it will add nearly
324,000 jobs. Refrigeration and air-conditioning mechanics
are expected to add 55,000 jobs. Office machine servicers
and cash register servicers should rise by 72 percent as
offices and stores are automated. This occupation will be
among the fastest growing during the period.
Construction trades. Employment fluctuations caused by
cyclical and seasonal factors characterize the construction
industry. As a result, construction-related employment pro­
jections are difficult to develop accurately. Although em­
ployment among construction trades is projected to increase
by more than 900,000 workers, much of this growth rep­
resents a recovery from the severe downturn of the early
1980’s. If allowance is made for this recession, the growth
of the construction trade occupations may be seen as ap­
proximating that of the rest of the economy.
Employment among the construction trades will also be
affected by technological changes within the industry. Dry
wall installers will benefit from the increased use of dry
wall. Modular construction will slow the employment growth
of carpenters. On the other hand, the increasing use of new
types of electrical equipment will continue to aid the em­
ployment growth of electricians.

Production occupations. The recovery of manufacturing from
the recent recession and its projected employment increase
by 1995 will provide many additional jobs for production
workers performing precision tasks. Although growth rates
will only approximate the economy as a whole, supervisors
of blue-collar workers will gain 319,000 jobs; machinists,
58,000; press and plate printers, 35,000; tool and die mak­
ers, 32,000; and millwrights, 30,000. The majority of ma­
chinists, tool and die makers, and millwrights work in durable
goods manufacturing which declined during 1980-82 and
which is expected to recover and grow.
Some of the lesser skilled production occupations (such
as operatives) are threatened by the introduction of robots
and other automated equipment. Robots can perform weld­
ing, machine loading and unloading, spray painting, and
certain types of assembly work, but their introduction is
currently hampered by factors such as the lack of visual
capabilities and by their purchase, installation, and main­
tenance costs. If the robots’ capabilities can be improved
and their associated costs can be reduced through mass
production, we may see an occupational impact.
Among the fabricating, assembly, and handworking oc­
cupations, the group of assembly occupations is anticipated
to grow by 332,000, primarily in electrical and electronic
components, machinery, and electrical equipment assem­
bly. Welders and flamecutters are expected to increase by
105,000; however, they are expected to decline in the au­
tomotive industry as more spot welding robots are used.
The number of filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers should
grow by about 3.0,000 jobs.
Some machine operators and tenders will experience the
impact of robots which can load materials into machinery.
However, increases are expected in some operator jobs,
including 52,000 combination machine tool operators and

Food and beverage service occupations. The trend toward
eating outside the home will result in continued employment
growth among food and beverage preparation and service
occupations. Sales in eating and drinking places nearly
quadrupled between 1967 and 1981,4 This trend is expected
to add 1.8 million jobs in eating and drinking places, an
increase of 38 percent during 1982-95. Much of this growth,
however, should be in fast food restaurants and therefore
food preparation and service workers in these establishments
would increase faster than other food service occupations.
They are expected to increase by 37 percent and add 297,000
jobs. Other food service occupations will also grow faster
than average including waiters and waitresses, up 562,000;
cooks, 402,000; and bartenders, 121,000. These four oc­
cupations will account for more than 5 percent of the total
growth in jobs over the period.




45

39.000 power press operators. Sewers and stitchers should
gain 78,000 jobs, although the growth rate is expected to
be below average and employment is not even expected to
reach the 1977 level by 1995. Production inspectors, testers,
samplers, and weighers would be most affected by robotic
vision systems, but the use of these systems seems to be in
the distant future. Therefore, an increase of 119,000 in­
specting jobs and 36,000 testing jobs is projected through
1995.

Tab le 5. P ercent distribution of em ploym ent
o ccupational group, 1932 and projected 1995

m ajor

199 5
O ccupational group

Total, all occupations.........................
Professional, technical, and related workers
Managers, officials, and proprietors .........
Salesworkers ............................................
Clerical workers..........................................
Craft and related workers ..........................
Operatives .•...............................................
Service workers..........................................
Laborers, except farm ..............................
Farmers and farmworkers .........................

Sales occupations. Salesworker employment growth trends
are generally tied to the growth of industries in which they
are employed. Thus, security and bond sales agents and real
estate agents should grow faster than average as do their
related industries. Salesclerks should increase about average
following the trend in retail trade where most are employed.
However, because of the very large size of this occupation,
it should be among the leaders in the number of jobs added
during 1982-95.

198 2

Low
trend

M oderate
trend

High
trend

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

16.3
9.4
6.9
18.8
11.4
12.8
16.0
5.8
2.7

17.3
9.6
6.8
18.8
11.6
12.1
16.4
5.5
1.9

17.1
9.6
6.9
18.9
11.6
12.1
16.3
5.5
1.9

17.2
9.6
6.9
18.9
11.6
12.2
16.3
5.6
1.9

The following list identifies those occupations in which
the difference between the alternative (high or low) projected
employment is greater than 5 percent from the moderate
trend:
Postmasters and mail superintendents
Railroad conductors
Postal mail carriers
Postal service clerks
Bookbinders
Locomotive engineers
Railroad brake operators
Extruder operators, rubber or plastics
Compression and injection mold machine operators, plastics
Press assistants and feeders
Shoemaking machine operators

Low and high alternative projections
The percentage distribution of occupational employment
or staffing patterns within specific industries that was used
to develop the low- and high-projection alternatives was
identical to that used in the moderate-trend projections.
Therefore, occupations that are concentrated in industries
whose employment varies significantly are those which show
the greatest variability among the three alternatives.
Total employment in the moderate-trend alternatives var­
ied by only about 2 percent from both the low and high
trends. Therefore, the distribution of employment by major
occupational group varies little among the alternatives. (See
table 5.)
In looking at specific occupations, significant differences
may exist between the moderate and either the low and high

Data uses
The current and projected occupational employment es­
timates presented in this article are developed by industry
and are a part of a national industry-occupational employ­
ment matrix. Data from the matrix will underlie information
in the 1984-85 edition of the Occupational Outlook Hand­
book which will be issued in the Spring of 1984. In addition
to being used in the development of career guidance infor­
mation, national occupational employment data and projec­
tions are used at all levels of government, and by others,
to formulate education plans, including vocational educa­
tion, and training requirements. State employment security
agencies utilize the national matrix as part of their own
programs of developing occupational projections. Other
government agencies and private organizations also use the
matrix for analytical purposes.
□

alternatives. In virtually all cases, em ploym ent levels are

small and the percent differences are relatively minor.
In a few instances, projected employment is greater in
the low alternative than in the moderate, or lower in the
high alternative than in the moderate. For example, em­
ployment for aircraft structure assemblers is projected to be
28.000 in the low alternative and 26,000 in the moderate
and high alternatives. This is due to significantly higher
projected employment for aircraft manufacturing in the low
alternative which encompasses higher levels of defense ex­
penditures.




by

46

■FOOTNOTES1See Handbook o f M ethods. Bulletin 2134 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,

1982) , chapters 18-21.
2Table 1 includes only 370 detailed occupations with employment of
25,000 or more in 1982. Projections developed in greater detail with
employment of 5,000 or more in 1982 will be published in the Spring of
1984 in O ccupational Projections and T raining D a ta , 1984 ed it ion. Current
and projected occupational employment estimates are developed by the
Bureau in the National Industry-Occupational Employment Matrix pro­
gram. The national matrix is developed by applying data on occupational
staffing patterns o f industries collected in the Occupational Employment




47

Statistics Survey program to estimates of annual average industry em­
ployment collected in the Current Employment Statistics program. These
surveys count jobs rather than people; therefore, the employment estimates
contained in this report are different from those derived from a count of
individuals in the Current Population Survey.
3 See Max L. Carey and Kevin Kasunic, “ Evaluating the 1980 projec­
tions of occupational employment,” M o n tjilv L a b o r Review, July 1982,
pp. 2 2 -3 0 .
4U.S. Bureau of the Census, C urrent Business Report, Series BR. Monthly
Retail Trade.

A p p e n d ix T a b le s
A -1. C ivilian lab o r fore® and p articipation rats® by ag@, s e x , and pae®, 1986-95, m iddle g ro w th path
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r ..............
16 to 2 4 .....................................
20 and over ..............................
25 to 5 4 .....................................
55 and o v e r ..............................

118,693
23,605
110,557
80,261
14,827

120,421
23,326
112,170
82,442
14,653

122,002
22,920
113,715
84,578
14,504

123,563
22,503
115,360
86,728
14,332

124,951
22,087
117,050
88,676
14,188

65.9
70.0
66.6
83.0
29.8

66.1
70.2
66.8
83.4
29.3

66.4
70.7
67.0
83.8
28.8

66.7
71.3
67.3
84.1
28.3

66.9
71.8
67.5
84.5
27.8

Men, 16 and o v e r ...................
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over .........................
20 to 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 .......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and over ..........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 ........................
60 and 61 ................
62 to 6 4 ...................
65 and o v e r .....................
65 to 69 .......................
70 to 74 .......................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 74 ...................
75 and o v e r .................

65,480
12,294
4,274
1,850
2,424
61,206
8,020
44,438
19,154
9,892
9,262
15,334
8,751
6,583
9,950
5,375
4,575
8,748
6,899
4,148
2,751
1,392
1,359
1,849
1,042
508
240
268
299

66,112
12,086
4,330
1,894
2,436
61,782
7,756
45,414
19,406
9,879
9,527
15,857
8,703
7,154
10,151
5,554
4,597
8,612
6,762
4,058
2,704
1,362
1,342
1,850
1,046
502
234
268
302

66,678
11,818
4,344
1,820
2,524
62,334
7,474
46,369
19,541
9,842
9,699
16,304
8,870
7,434
10,524
5,875
4,649
8,491
6,647
3,979
2,668
1,342
1,326
1,844
1,040
499
233
266
305

67,238
11,545
4,293
1,713
2,580
62,945
7,252
47,334
19,625
9,759
9,866
16,867
9,069
7,798
10,842
6,104
4,738
8,359
6,523
3,905
2,618
1,316
1,302
1,836
1,030
498
235
263
308

67,701
11,274
4,123
1,664
2,459
63,578
7,151
48,180
19,569
9,557
10,012
17,469
9,281
8,188
11,142
6,299
4,843
8,247
6,419
3,842
2,577
1,308
1,269
1,828
1,019
498
236
262
311

76.7
74.2
60.2
49.7
72.0
78.2
84.6
94.1
94.2
93.4
95.1
95.9
96.6
94.9
91.4
93.5
89.0
40.6
67.5
79.4
55.1
67.6
46.3
16.3
25.3
16.0
17.3
15.0
7.4

76.6
74.0
60.5
50.1
72.2
78.0
84.5
94.0
94.1
93.3
95.0
95.8
96.5
94.9
91.3
93.4
88.9
39.7
66.9
79.1
54.4
67.0
45.7
16.0
24.8
15.7
17.0
14.7
7.3

76.5
74.2
61.3
50.4
72.7
77.9
84.5
93.9
93.9
93.1
94.8
95.7
96.4
94.9
91.3
93.4
88.8
38.9
66.4
78.7
53.8
66.5
45.1
15.6
24.3
15.4
16.6
14.5
7.1

76.5
74.5
62.1
50.7
73.0
77.8
84.4
93.9
93.8
93.0
94.6
95.6
96.3
94.8
91.3
93.4
88.7
38.1
65.9
78.4
53.3
66.0
44.6
15.3
23.7
15.2
16.4
14.3
7.0

76.5
74.7
62.3
51.0
73.2
77.7
84.4
93.8
93.7
92.9
94.5
95.6
96.2
94.8
91.3
93.4
88.7
37.4
65.5
78.1
52.8
65.6
44.0
14.9
23.3
15.0
16.0
14.1
6.9

Women, 16 and o v e r..............
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over ..........................
20 to 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 .......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and over ..........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 .......................
60 and 61 ................
62 to 6 4 ...................
65 and o v e r .....................
65 to 69 .......................
70 to 74 .......................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 7 4 ...................
75 and o v e r.................

53,213
11,311
3,862
1,611
2,251
49,351
7,449
35,823
15,764
8,189
7,575
12,526
7,037
5,489
7,533
4,100
3,433
6,079
4,819
2,937
1,882
937
945
1,260
778
320
145
175
162

54,309
11,240
3,921
1,650
2,271
50,388
7,319
37,028
16,149
8,267
7,882
13,126
7,091
6,035
7,753
4,265
3,488
6,041
4,759
2,893
1,866
922
944
1,282
797
321
143
178
164

55,324
11,102
3,943
1,587
2,356
51,381
7,159
38,209
16,444
8,329
8,115
13,660
7,314
6,346
8,105
4,539
3,566
6,013
4,712
2,856
1,856
914
942
1,301
811
323
144
179
167

56,325
10,958
3,910
1,500
2,410
52,415
7,048
39,394
16,680
8,355
8,325
14,296
7,565
6,731
8,418
4,747
3,671
5,973
4,659
2,821
1,838
904
934
1,314
822
323
145
178
169

57,250
10,813
3,778
1,461
2,317
53,472
7,035
40,496
16,804
8,290
8,514
14,974
7,829
7,145
8,718
4,926
3,792
5,941
4,612
2,791
1,821
899
922
1,329
829
328
149
179
172

56.1
66.1
54.3
44.6
64.3
56.3
74.5
72.3
74.8
75.0
74.5
74.5
74.1
75.0
64.6
67.2
61.8
21.6
41.3
50.4
32.2
39.5
27.2
7.7
15.1
7.3
7.9
6.9
2.3

56.7
66.6
54.7
45.0
64.8
56.8
75.4
73.2
75.6
75.9
75.4
75.6
75.1
76.1
65.3
67.8
62.5
21.3
41.3
50.6
32.2
39.5
27.2
7.6
15.1
7.3
7.8
7.0
2.3

57.2
67.4
55.6
45.4
65.5
57.4
76.3
74.0
76.5
76.8
76.2
76.6
76.1
77.2
65.9
68.3
63.2
21.0
41.3
50.8
32.1
39.6
27.2
7.6
15.1
7.3
7.8
7.0
2.3

57.8
68.3
56.5
45.8
66.0
57.9
77.2
74.8
77.3
77.7
77.0
77.6
77.1
78.2
66.5
68.7
63.8
20.8
41.4
50.9
32.1
39.6
27.2
7.5
15.1
7.2
7.7
6.9
2.2

58.3
69.1
56.8
46.2
66.5
58.4
78.1
75.6
78.1
78.5
77.8
78.6
78.0
79.2
67.1
69.2
64.5
20.5
41.5
51.1
32.1
39.6
27.1
7.4
15.1
7.2
7.7
6.9
2.2




48

A-1. Civilian labor fores and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, middle growth path—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force
Sex, age, and race

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

103,064

104,388

105,571

106,726

107,734

66.3

66.5

66.8

67.0

67.3

Men, 16 and over ................

57,612

58,084

58,492

58,887

59,201

77.6

77.5

77.4

77.4

77.4

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and o v e r ......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and over ..................

10,728
3,803
53,809
6,925
38,917
16,602
13,478
8,837
7,967
6,266
1,701

10,554
3,856
54,228
6,698
39,692
16,774
13,912
9,006
7,838
6,134
1,704

10,325
3,870
54,622
6,455
40,445
16,844
14,267
9,334
7,722
6,021
1,701

10,088
3,828
55,059
6,260
41,204
16,869
14,725
9,610
7,595
5,900
1,695

9,854
3,678
55,523
6,176
41,864
16,776
15,216
9,872
7,483
5,795
1,688

77.2
64.6
78.7
86.4
95.1
95.4
96.5
92.4
41.0
68.3
16.6

77.2
65.1
78.5
86.5
95.0
95.3
96.5
92.3
40.1
67.7
16.2

77.6
66.1
78.4
86.6
94.9
95.2
96.4
92.3
39.3
67.2
15.9

78.1
67.1
78.2
86.7
94.9
95.1
96.4
92.3
38.5
66.7
15.6

78.5
67.5
78.1
86.9
94.8
95.0
96.3
92.3
37.8
66.3
15.3

Women, 16 and o v e r...........

45,452

46,304

47,079

47,839

48,533

55.9

56.5

57.0

57.5

58.1

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and o v e r ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and over ..................

9,764
3,414
42,038
6,350
30,354
13,224
10,652
6,478
5,334
4,213
1,121

9,692
3,464
42,840
6,228
31,322
13,517
11,142
6,663
5,290
4,150
1,140

9,561
3,481
43,598
6,080
32,264
13,732
11,567
6,965
5,254
4,098
1,156

9,422
3,450
44,389
5,972
33,209
13,899
12,078
7,232
5,208
4,041
1,167

9,285
3,330
45,203
5,955
34,081
13,967
12,627
7,487
5,167
3,990
1,177

69.1
58.3
55.7
76.7
72.2
74.9
74.3
64.6
21.3
40.9
7.6

69.7
58.9
56.3
77.7
73.1
75.8
75.4
65.3
20.9
40.9
7.5

70.6
59.9
56.8
78.7
74.0
76.6
76.4
65.9
20.7
41.0
7.5

71.6
60.9
57.3
79.7
74.8
77.5
77.4
66.6
20.4
41.1
7.4

72.5
61.5
57.8
80.7
75.6
78.3
78.4
67.1
20.1
41.2
7.4

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

15,629

16,033

16,431

16,837

17,217

63.5

63.7

64.1

64.4

64.8

Men, 16 and over ................

7,868

8,028

8,186

8,351

8,500

71.0

70.9

70.8

70.9

71.0

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 .........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 .........................
65 and over ..................

1,566
471
7,397
1,095
5,521
2,552
1,856
1,113
781
148

1,532
474
7,554
1,058
5,722
2,632
1,945
1,145
774
628
146

1,493
474
7,712
1,019
5,924
2,697
2,037
1,190
769
626
143

1,457
465
7,886
992
6,130
2,756
2,142
1,232
764
823
141

1,420
445
8,055
975
6,316
2,793
2,253
1,270
764
624
140

58.6
39.1
74.9
74.5
87.9
87.3
91.2
84.1
36.8
60.5
13.7

57.5
38.5
74.8
73.7
87.8
87.2
91.1
84.1
36.1
60.1
13.3

56.8
38.5
74.7
72.9
87.7
87.0
91.0
84.1
35.4
59.6
12.7

56.4
38.5
74.6
72.1
87.6
86.8
90.9
84.1
34.8
59.2
12.3

55.9
37.9
74.6
71.4
87.6
86.7
90.8
84.1
34.3
58.9
12.0

Women, 16 and o v e r...........

7,761

8,005

8,245

8,486

8,717

57.3

57.9

58.5

59.1

59.7

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 .........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 .........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 .........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 .........................
65 and o v e r ..................

1,547
448
7,313
1,099
5,469
2,540
1,874
1,055
745
606
139

1,548
457
7,548
1,091
5,706
2,632
1,984
1,090
751
609
142

1,541
462
7,783
1,079
5,945
2,712
2,093
1,140
759
614
145

1,536
460
8,026
1,076
6,185
2,781
2,218
1,186
765
618
147

1,528
448
8,269
1,080
6,415
2,837
2,347
1,231
774
622
152

51.8
35.4
59.6
63.8
72.8
74.1
76.1
64.8
24.6
44.0
8.4

52.0
35.5
60.2
64.6
73.6
75.0
77.0
65.3
24.3
43.9
8.3

52.4
35.9
60.8
65.3
74.3
75.9
77.8
65.8
24.0
43.7
8.3

53.1
36.4
61.3
66.0
75.1
76.7
78.7
66.2
23.8
43.6
8.1

53.7
36.5
61.9
66.7
75.8
77.5
79.5
66.6
23.5
43.6
8.2

W hite

Black and o th e r




633

49

A -1. C ivilian iab or fo rc e and p articipation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, m iddle g ro w th p a th — C ontinued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total, 16 and o v e r ..............
to 2 4 .....................................
and over ..............................
to 5 4 .....................................
and over ..............................

126,350
21,872
118,743
90,406
14,072

127,587
21,651
120,087
91,960
13,976

128,860
21,552
121,315
93,358
13,950

130,102
21,340
122,445
94,788
13,974

131,387
21,130
123,583
96,210
14,047

67.2
72.3
67.7
84.9
27.4

67.3
72.6
67.9
85.1
27.1

67.5
72.9
68.0
85.4
26.8

67.6
73.0
68.2
85.7
26.7

67.8
73.0
68.3
85.9
26.6

Men, 16 and o v e r ...................
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over ..........................
20 to 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 ......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and over ..........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 ........................
60 and 61 ............
62 to 6 4 ...................
65 and over .....................
65 to 69 ........................
70 to 74 ........................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 7 4 ...................
75 and o v e r.................

68,170
11,113
3,959
1,665
2,294
64,211
7,154
48,908
19,389
9,221
10,168
18,105
9,467
8,638
11,414
6,442
4,972
8,149
6,339
3,814
2,525
1,281
1,244
1,810
998
500
238
262
312

68,590
10,953
3,896
1,681
2,215
64,694
7,057
49,571
19,098
8,936
10,162
18,343
9,740
8,603
12,130
6,994
5,136
8,066
6,273
3,823
2,450
1,225
1,225
1,793
975
505
240
265
313

69,035
10,860
3,915
1,707
2,208
65,120
6,945
50,148
18,751
8,625
10,126
18,702
9,927
8,775
12,695
7,264
5,431
8,027
6,252
3,859
2,393
1,195
1,198
1,775
955
505
236
269
315

69,479
10,713
3,968
1,745
2,223
65,511
6,745
50,749
18,420
8,377
10,043
19,075
10,099
8,976
13,254
7,612
5,642
8,017
6,267
3,924
2,343
1,183
1,160
1,750
931
502
230
272
317

69,970
10,573
4,043
1,790
2,253
65,927
6,530
51,358
18,105
8,262
9,843
19,446
10,253
9,193
13,807
7,987
5,820
8,039
6,311
4,006
2,305
1,180
1,125
1,728
909
499
229
270
320

76.4
74.8
62.2
51.4
73.3
77.5
84.3
93.7
93.6
92.7
94.4
95.5
96.1
94.9
91.2
93.3
88.6
36.8
65.1
77.8
52.3
65.1
43.5
14.6
22.8
14.7
15.7
13.9
6.7

76.4
74.9
62.2
51.8
73.6
77.4
84.3
93.6
93.5
92.6
94.2
95.5
96.0
94.8
91.2
93.3
88.6
36.2
64.8
77.5
51.6
64.6
43.0
14.3
22.4
14.5
15.5
13.7
6.6

76.3
74.8
62.5
52.1
73.8
77.3
84.3
93.5
93.4
92.5
94.1
95.4
96.0
94.8
91.2
93.3
88.5
35.8
64.6
77.2
51.1
64.2
42.5
13.9
22.0
14.3
15.2
13.5
6.5

76.2
74.7
62.7
52.4
74.1
77.2
84.2
93.5
93.2
92.4
94.0
95.4
95.9
94.8
91.1
93.2
88.4
35.5
64.5
77.0
50.8
63.8
42.0
13.6
21.6
14.0
14.9
13.3
6.4

76.1
74.5
62.9
52.7
74.4
77.1
84.1
93.4
93.1
92.3
93.9
95.3
95.8
94.8
91.1
93.2
88.4
35.3
64.5
76.7
50.5
63.4
41.7
13.3
21.2
13.8
14.7
13.1
6.3

Women, 16 and o v e r..............
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over .........................
20 to 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 .......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and over ..........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 .......................
60 and 61 ................
62 to 6 4 ...................
65 and over .....................
65 to 69 .......................
70 to 74 .......................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 7 4 ...................
75 and o v e r .................

58,180
10,759
3,648
1,464
2,184
54,532
7,111
41,498
16,812
8,106
8,706
15,691
8,074
7,617
8,995
5,069
3,926
5,923
4,587
2,786
1,801
891
910
1,336
829
333
151
182
174

58,997
10,698
3,604
1,481
2,123
55,393
7,094
42,389
16,717
7,949
8,768
16,055
8,395
7,660
9,617
5,527
4,090
5,910
4,571
2,810
1,761
857
904
1,339
824
340
154
186
175

59,825
10,692
3,630
1,506
2,124
56,195
7,062
43,210
16,569
7,760
8,809
16,519
8,635
7,884
10,122
5,765
4,357
5,923
4,581
2,850
1,731
839
892
1,342
821
344
153
191
177

60,623
10,627
3,689
1,540
2,149
56,934
6,938
44,039
16,431
7,620
8,811
16,981
8,848
8,133
10,627
6,067
4,560
5,957
4,618
2,912
1,706
835
871
1,339
814
346
151
195
179

61,417
10,557
3,761
1,581
2,180
57,656
6,796
44,852
16,300
7,582
8,718
17,427
9,034
8,393
11,125
6,390
4,735
6,008
4,671
2,985
1,686
836
850
1,337
808
348
151
197
181

58.8
69.9
57.0
46.6
67.0
58.9
79.0
76.4
78.9
79.3
78.6
79.5
78.9
80.2
67.6
69.7
65.1
20.3
41.6
51.3
32.2
39.7
27.1
7.4
15.2
7.2
7.5
6.9
2.2

59.2
70.4
57.2
47.0
67.5
59.3
79.8
77.0
79.7
80.1
79.3
80.4
79.8
81.1
68.1
70.1
65.7
20.1
41.7
51.5
32.0
39.7
27.1
7.3
15.2
7.2
7.5
6.9
2.1

59.6
71.0
57.6
47.3
68.0
59.7
80.6
77.6
80.4
80.9
80.0
81.2
80.6
82.0
68.6
70.5
66.2
20.0
41.9
51.6
32.0
39.7
27.1
7.2
15.2
7.1
7.5
6.9
2.1

60.0
71.3
57.9
47.7
68.4
60.1
81.4
78.1
81.1
81.6
80.7
82.0
81.3
82.8
69.1
70.9
66.8
19.9
42.2
51.8
32.0
39.7
27.0
7.1
15.2
7.1
7.4
6.9
2.1

60.3
71.6
58.2
48.0
68.9
60.4
82.0
78.7
81.7
82.2
81.3
82.8
82.0
83.5
69.5
71.3
67.3
19.9
42.5
51.9
32.1
39.7
27.0
7.0
15.2
7.1
7.3
6.9
2.0

16
20
25
55




50

A-1. Civilian labor fore® and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, middle growth path—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Labor force participation rate

Civilian labor force
Sex, age, and race

Number

Percent
1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

111,454

112,393

67.5

67.7

67.8

68.0

68.1

60,102

60,408

60,757

77.3

77.2

77.1

77.1

77.0

9,577
3,489
56,310
6,088
42,921
16,283
15,897
10,741
7,301
5,642
1,659

9,502
3,512
56,590
5,990
43,345
15,943
16,170
11,232
7,255
5,612
1,643

9,386
3,565
56,843
5,821
43,783
15,621
16,445
11,717
7,239
5,617
1,622

9,271
3,639
57,118
5,632
44,232
15,324
16,717
12,191
7,254
5,651
1,603

78.8
67.6
78.0
87.0
94.7
94.9
96.3
92.2
37.1
66.0
14.9

79.0
67.9
77.9
87.1
94.7
94.8
96.3
92.2
36.6
65.7
14.6

79.1
68.3
77.8
87.2
94.6
94.7
96.2
92.2
36.1
65.5
14.3

79.1
68.7
77.7
87.3
94.5
94.6
96.2
92.1
35.8
65.4
14.0

79.1
69.1
77.6
87.3
94.5
94.6
96.2
92.1
35.6
65.5
13.7

49,230

49,835

50,455

51,046

51,636

58.5

58.9

59.3

59.7

60.0

9,224
3,215
46,015
6,009
34,865
13,936
13,208
7,721
5,141
3,959
1,182

9,161
3,177
46,658
5,984
35,555
13,819
13,479
8,257
5,119
3,937
1,182

9,149
3,201
47,254
5,948
36,185
13,657
13,844
8,684
5,121
3,938
1,183

9,091
3,253
47,793
5,838
36,813
13,503
14,200
9,110
5,142
3,964
1,178

9,025
3,318
48,318
5,707
37,433
13,365
14,543
9,525
5,178
4,004
1,174

73.3
61.7
58.3
81.6
76.3
79.1
79.4
67.7
19.9
41.3
7.3

74.0
62.0
58.7
82.5
77.0
79.8
80.3
68.3
19.7
41.4
7.2

74.6
62.5
59.1
83.3
77.6
80.5
81.1
68.8
19.6
41.7
7.1

75.1
62.9
59.5
84.1
78.1
81.2
81.9
69.2
19.6
42.0
7.0

75.4
63.3
59.8
84.9
78.7
81.8
82.7
69.7
19.5
42.2
6.9

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

17,602

17,953

18,303

18,648

18,994

65.1

65.3

65.5

65.6

65.7

Men, 16 and over ................

8,652

8,791

8,933

9,071

9,213

71.0

70.9

70.8

70.7

70.6

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 .........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 .........................
55 and o v e r ......................
55 to 64 .........................
65 and over ..................

1,400
421
8,231
979
6,490
2,813
2,368
1,309
762

1,376
407
8,384
969
6,650
2,815
2,446
1,389
765

1,358
403
8,530
955
6,803
2,808
2,532
1,463
772

1,327
403
8,668
924
6,966
2,799
2,630
1,537
778

1,302
404
8,809
898
7,126
2,781
2,729
1,616
785

55.6
37.0
74.5
70.8
87.5
86.6
90.8
84.1
33.7

55.0
36.3
74.4
70.2
87.4
86.4
90.7
84.2
33.4

631

640

650

660

58.5

58.1

135

134

132

128

125

11.4

11.1

53.5
35.4
74.2
68.9
87.3
86.1
90.6
84.2
32.9
57.7
10.3

52.7
35.0
74.1
68.3
87.2
86.0
90.5
84.2
32.6

627

54.4
35.8
74.3
69.6
87.4
86.2
90.7
84.2
33.2
57.9
10.8

Women, 16 and o v e r...........

8,950

9,162

9,370

9,577

9,781

60.3

60.7

61.1

61.4

61.7

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 .........................
20 and o v e r ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 .........................
35 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and o v e r .......................
55 to 64 .........................
65 and o v e r ..................

1,535
433
8,517
1,102
6,633
2,876
2,483
1,274
782
628
154

1,537
427
8,735
1,110
6,834
2,898
2,576
1,360
791
634
157

1,543
429
8,941
1,114
7,025
2,912
2,675
1,438
802
643
159

1,536
436
9,141
1,100
7,226
2,928
2,781
1,517
815
654
161

1,532
443
9,338
1,089
7,419
2,935
2,884
1,600
830
667
163

54.4
36.4
62.4
87.4
76.5
78.3
80.3
66.9
23.3
43.6
8.0

54.7
36.3
62.8
68.1
77.1
79.1
81.1
67.4
23.1
43.5
8.0

55.1
36.3
63.1
68.7
77.7
79.8
81.8
67.7
22.9
43.5
7.9

55.2
36.5
63.5
69.3
78.2
80.5
82.5
68.1
22.8
43.6
7.8

55.3
36.6
63.8
69.8
78.7
81.1
83.1
68.4
22.8
43.7
7.7

1991

1992

1993

1994

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

108,748

109,634

110,557

Men, 16 and o v e r ................

59,518

59,799

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and o v e r ......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and over ..................

9,713
3,538
55,980
6,175
42,418
16,576
15,737
10,105
7,387
5,712
1,675

Women, 16 and o v e r...........
16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and o v e r ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and over ..................

W hite

Black and

o th e r




51

57.4

9.9

A -2. Civilian lab o r fore© and p articipation rates by ag@, sest, and race, 198S-SS, high g ro w th path
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r ..............
16 to 2 4 .....................................
20 and over ..............................
25 to 5 4 .....................................
55 and over ..............................

122,292
24,324
113,876
82,620
15,348

124,726
24,126
116,148
85,193
15,407

127,008
23,790
118,356
87,733
15,485

129,268
23,444
120,663
90,292
15,532

131,319
23,091
122,990
92,639
15,589

67.9
72.2
68.6
85.4
30.9

68.5
72.7
69.2
86.2
30.8

69.1
73.4
69.8
86.9
30.7

69.8
74.3
70.4
87.6
30.6

70.3
75.1
70.9
88.3
30.6

Men, 16 and over ...................
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over .........................
20 io 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 .......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and o v e r .........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 .......................
60 and 61 ................
62 to 6 4 ...................
65 and over .....................
65 to 69 .......................
70 to 74 ........................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 7 4 ...................
75 and over .................

66,529
12,594
4,420
1,921
2,499
62,109
8,174
44,758
19,295
10,035
9,260
15,457
8,846
6,611
10,006
5,400
4,606
9,177
7,142
4,246
2,896
1,453
1,443
2,035
1,154
553
263
290
328

67,397
12,444
4,509
1,982
2,527
62,888
7,935
45,830
19,604
10,052
9,552
16,004
8,818
7,188
10,222
5,586
4,636
9,123
7,049
4,172
2,877
1,433
1,444
2,074
1,180
556
261
295
338

68,205
12,229
4,552
1,919
2,633
63,653
7,677
46,888
19,806
10,045
9,781
16,475
9,005
7,470
10,607
5,914
4,693
9,088
6,978
4,111
2,867
1,423
1,444
2,110
1,198
564
266
298
348

68,996
12,007
4,529
1,822
2,707
64,467
7,478
47,953
19,946
9,989
9,957
17,066
9,225
7,841
10,941
6,151
4,790
9,036
6,894
4,053
2,841
1,405
1,436
2.142
1,213
571
272
299
358

69,674
11,782
4,380
1,783
2,597
65,294
7,402
48,894
19,943
9,809
10,134
17,696
9,461
8,235
11,255
6,352
4,903
8,998
6,827
4,004
2,823
1,406
1,417
2,171
1,223
581
279
302
367

77.9
76.0
62.3
51.6
74.2
79.4
86.2
94.8
94.9
94.8
95.1
96.6
97.7
95.3
91.9
93.9
89.6
42.6
69.9
81.3
58.0
70.5
49.1
17.9
28.0
17.4
19.0
16.2
8.1

78.1
76.2
63.0
52.4
74.9
79.4
86.5
94.9
95.1
94.9
95.2
96.6
97.8
95.3
92.0
94.0
89.6
42.1
69.8
81.3
57.9
70.5
49.2
17.9
28.0
17.4
18.9
16.2
8.1

78.3
76.7
64.2
53.1
75.8
79.5
86.8
95.0
95.2
85.1
95.4
96.7
97.9
95.3
92.1
94.1
89.6
41.7
69.7
81.3
57.8
70.6
49.1
17.9
28.0
17.4
19.0
16.2
8.1

78.5
77.5
65.5
53.9
76.6
79.6
87.0
95.1
95.4
95.2
95.5
96.8
98.0
95.4
92.1
94.1
89.7
41.2
69.7
81.4
57.8
70.5
49.2
17.8
28.0
17.4
19.0
16.2
8.1

78.7
78.0
66.2
54.7
77.3
79.7
87.3
95.2
95.5
95.3
95.7
96.8
98.1
95.4
92.2
94.2
89.7
40.8
69.7
81.4
57.9
70.5
49.1
17.7
28.0
17.5
19.0
16.3
8.1

Women, 16 and o v e r..............
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over .........................
20 to 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 .......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and o v e r ..........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 .......................
60 and 61 ................
62 to 64 ...................
65 and over .....................
65 to 69 .......................
70 to 74 .......................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 74 ...................
75 and over .................

55,763
11,730
3,996
1,706
2,290
51,767
7,734
37,862
16,906
8,777
8,129
13,158
7,410
5,748
7,798
4,345
3,453
6,171
4,860
2,949
1,911
953
958
1,311
800
336
152
184
175

57,329
11,682
4,069
1,751
2,318
53,260
7,613
39,363
17,384
8,888
8,496
13,848
7,510
6,338
8,131
4,540
3,591
6,284
4,940
3,040
1,900
941
959
1,344
824
339
151
188
181

58,803
11,561
4,100
1,690
2,410
54,703
7,461
40,845
17,767
8,983
8,784
14,474
7,792
6,682
8,604
4,853
3,751
6,397
5,024
3,129
1,895
936
959
1,373
843
343
152
191
187

60,272
11,437
4,076
1,601
2,475
56.196
7,361
42,333
18,087
9,037
9,050
15,211
8,103
7,108
9,041
5,099
3,942
6,496
5,097
3,215
1,882
928
954
1,399
859
348
156
192
192

61,645
11,309
3,949
1,563
2,386
57,696
7,360
43,745
18,287
8,994
9,293
15,995
8,430
7,565
9,463
5,314
4,149
6,591
5,168
3,298
1,870
926
944
1,423
871
354
160
194
198

58.8
68.5
56.1
47.2
65.4
59.0
77.3
76.4
80.2
80.4
80.0
78.3
78.1
78.6
66.9
71.2
62.1
21.9
41.6
50.6
32.7
40.2
27.6
8.0
15.5
7.7
8.3
7.3
2.5

59.8
69.2
56.8
47.8
86.1
60.1
78.4
77.8
81.4
81.6
81.2
79.8
79.6
80.0
68.5
72.1
64.3
22.2
42.9
53.1
32.7
40.4
27.6
8.0
15.6
7.7
8.3
7.3
2.5

60.8
70.2
57.8
48.3
67.0
61.1
79.6
79.1
82.7
82.8
82.5
81.2
81.1
81.3
70.0
73.0
66.4
22.4
44.1
55.6
32.8
40.5
27.7
8.0
15.7
7.8
8.2
7.4
2.5

61.8
71.3
58.9
48.9
67.8
62.1
80.7
80.4
83.9
84.0
83.7
82.6
82.5
82.6
71.4
73.8
68.5
22.6
45.3
58.1
32.9
40.7
27.7
8.0
15.8
7.8
8.2
7.5
2.5

62.8
72.3
59.4
49.4
68.5
63.0
81.8
81.7
85.0
85.2
84.9
83.9
84.0
83.9
72.8
74.7
70.5
22.7
46.5
60.4
33.0
40.8
27.8
8.0
15.9
7.8
8.2
7.5
2.5




52

Civilian labor fore© and participation rates by ag@, s©x5 and race, 1©S6=S§, high growth path“-C©ntinued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

105,660

107,529

109,256

110,948

112,471

67.9

68.5

69.1

69.7

70.2

Men, 16 and over ................

58,215

58,827

59,378

59,906

60,344

78.4

78.4

78.6

78.7

78.9

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 .........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 .........................
55 and o v e r ......................
55 to 6 4 ........................
65 and over ..................

10,819
3,843
54,372
6,976
39,062
16,639
13,557
8,866
8,334
6,472
1,862

10,660
3,904
54,923
6,756
39,890
16,843
14,004
9,043
8,277
6,378
1,899

10,445
3,925
55,453
6,520
40,702
16,954
14,372
9,376
8,231
6,301
1,930

10,220
3,889
56,017
6,331
41,514
17,011
14,844
9,659
8,172
6,213
1,959

9,997
3,743
56,601
6,254
42,222
16,946
15,349
9,927
8,125
6,139
1,986

77.8
65.3
79.5
87.1
95.4
95.6
97.1
92.7
42.9
70.5
18.1

78.0
65.9
79.5
87.3
95.5
95.7
97.1
92.7
42.4
70.4
18.1

78.5
67.0
79.6
87.5
95.5
95.8
97.1
92.8
41.9
70.3
18.1

79.1
68.2
79.6
87.7
95.6
95.9
97.1
92.8
41.4
70.3
18.0

79.6
68.7
79.6
87.9
95.6
96.0
97.2
92.8
41.0
70.3
17.9

Women, 16 and o y e r...........

47,445

48,702

49,878

51,042

52,127

58.4

59.4

60.4

61.4

62.4

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 .........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 .........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 .........................
55 and o v e r ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and o v e r ..................

10,048
3,512
43,933
6,536
31,991
14,122
11,156
6,713
5,406
4,240
1,166

9,977
3,568
45,134
6,409
33,217
14,491
11,723
7,003
5,508
4,313
1,195

9,845
3,589
46,289
6,256
34,424
14,779
12,227
7,418
5,609
4,389
1,220

9,707
3,561
47,481
6,146
35,640
15,015
12,826
7,799
5,695
4,453
1,242

9,569
3,441
48,686
6,128
36,779
15,145
13,466
8,168
5,779
4,517
1,262

71.1
60.0
58.3
78.9
76.1
80.0
77.8
66.9
21.5
41.2
7.9

71.8
60.7
59.3
80.0
77.5
81.2
79.3
68.6
21.8
42.5
7.9

72.7
61.8
60.3
81.0
78.9
82.5
80.7
70.2
22.1
43.9
7.9

73.8
62.9
61.3
82.0
80.3
83.7
82.2
71.8
22.3
45.2
7.9

74.7
63.5
62.3
83.0
81.6
84.9
83.6
73.3
22.5
46.6
7.9

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

16,632

17,197

17,752

18,320

18,848

67.6

68.4

69.2

70.1

70.9

Men, 16 and o v e r ................

8,314

8,570

8,827

9,090

9,330

75.0

75.7

76.4

77.2

77.9

16 to 24 .............................
18 to 19 .........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 ..................... .
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and over ..................

1,775
577
7,737
1,198
5,696
2,656
1,900
1,140
843
670
173

1,784
605
7,965
1,179
5,940
2,761
2,000'
1,179
846
671
175

1,784
627
8,200
1,157
6,186
2,852
2,103
1,231
857
677
180

1,787
640
8,450
1,147
6,439
2,935
2,222
1,282
864
681
183

1,785
637
8,693
1,148
6,672
2,997
2,347
1,328

66.4
47.9
78.4
81.6
90.7
90.9
93.4
86.1

873

39.7

688
185

64.1
16.0

66.9
49.1
78.9
82.2
91.1
91.4
93.7
86.6
39.4
64.2
15.9

67.9
51.0
79.4
82.8
91.6
92.0
94.0
87.0
39.4
64.4
16.0

69.2
52.9
80.0
83.4
92.1
92.5
94.3
87.5
39.3
64.7
16.0

70.3
54.3
80.5
84.1
92.5
93.0
94.6
87.9
39.2
64.9
15.9

Women, 16 and o v e r...........

8,318

8,627

8,925

9,230

9,518

61.4

62.4

63.3

64.3

65.2

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 .........................
20 and o v e r .......................
20 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 .........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 .........................
55 and o v e r .......................
55 to 64 .........................
65 and over ..................

1,682
484
7,834
1,198
5,871
2,784
2,002
1,085
765
620
145

1,705
501
8,126
1,204
6,146
2,893
2,125
1,128
776
627
149

1,716
511
8,414
1,205
6.421
2,988
2,247
1,186
788
635
153

1,730
515
8,715
1,215
6,699
3,072
2,385
1,242
801
644
157

1,740
508
9,010
1,232
6,966
3,142
2,529
1,295
812
651
161

56.3
38.2
63.8
69.6
78.1
81.3
81.3
65.7
25.2
45.0
8.8

57.3
38.9
64.8
71.3
79.3
82.5
82.4
67.6
25.1
45.2
8.7

58.4
39.7
65.7
72.9
80.3
83.6
83.5
68.4
24.9
45.2
8.7

59.8
40.7
66.6
74.5
81.3
84.7
84.6
69.3
24.9
45.5
8.7

61.1
41.4
67.4
76.1
82.3
85.8
85.7
70.0
24.7
45.6
8.7

W hite

B lack and o th e r




53

A-2. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, high growth path—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total, 16 and o v e r ..............
16 to 2 4 .....................................
20 and over ..............................
25 to 5 4 .....................................
55 and over ..............................

133,388
22,948
125,327
94,760
15,680

135,288
22,796
127,302
96,709
15,783

137,205
22,769
129,135
98,486
15,950

139,085
22,623
130,861
100,292
16,170

140,973
22,476
132,557
102,070
16,427

70.9
75.9
71.5
89.0
30.5

71.4
76.5
72.0
89.5
30.6

71.9
77.0
72.4
90.1
30.7

72.3
77.4
72.9
90.6
30.8

72.7
77.7
73.3
91.1
31.1

Men, 16 and o v e r ...................
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over ..........................
20 to 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 .......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and o v e r ..........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 ........................
60 and 61 ................
62 to 6 4 ...................
65 and o v e r .....................
65 to 69 .......................
70 to 74 .......................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 7 4 ...................
75 and over .................

70,364
11,668
4,236
1,798
2,438
66,128
7,432
49,716
19,813
9,492
10,321
18,361
9,670
8,691
11,542
6,503
5,039
8,980
6,787
3,994
2,793
1,387
1,406
2,193
1,223
594
287
307
376

70,999
11,555
4,196
1,828
2,368
66,803
7,359
50,476
19,569
9,225
10,344
18,628
9.969
8,659
12,279
7,067
5,212
8,968
6,758
4,022
2,736
1,335
1,401
2,210
1,217
609
294
315
384

71,656
11,513
4,244
1,870
2,374
67,412
7,269
51,146
19,265
8,928
10,337
19,016
10,179
8,837
12,865
7,347
5,518
8,997
6,771
4,076
2,695
1,310
1,385
2,226
1,215
618
294
324
393

72,311
11,414
4,328
1,925
2,403
67,983
7,086
51,842
18,977
8,695
10,282
19,419
10,375
9,044
13,446
7,707
5,739
9,055
6,822
' 4,161
2,661
1,305
1,356
2,233
1,207
624
293
331
402

73,005
11,321
4,436
1,988
2,448
68,569
6,885
52,545
18,701
8,598
10,103
19,821
10,553
9,268
14,023
8,096
5,927
9,139
6,899
4,264
2,635
1,309
1,326
2,240
1,199
630
295
335
411

78.9
78.6
66.5
55.5
77.9
79.9
87.6
95.3
95.6
95.5
95.8
96.9
98.2
95.4
92.2
94.2
89.8
40.5
69.7
81.5
57.8
70.5
49.1
17.7
27.9
17.4
18.9
16.2
8.1

79.0
79.0
67.0
56.3
78.6
79.9
87.9
95.3
95.8
95.6
95.9
97.0
98.3
95.5
92.4
94.3
89.9
40.3
69.8
81.5
57.6
70.4
49.1
17.6
27.9
17.5
19.0
16.2
8.1

79.2
79.3
67.7
57.1
79.4
80.0
88.2
95.4
95.9
95.7
96.1
97.0
98.4
95.5
92.4
94.3
89.9
40.1
70.0
81.6
57.6
70.4
49.1
17.5
28.0
17.4
19.0
16.2
8.1

79.3
79.6
68.4
57.8
80.1
80.1
88.4
95.5
96.1
95.9
96.2
97.1
98.5
95.5
92.5
94.4
90.0
40.1
70.2
81.6
57.7
70.4
49.1
17.4
28.0
17.4
19.0
16.2
8.1

79.4
79.8
69.1
58.6
80.8
80.2
88.7
95.5
96.2
96.0
96.3
97.2
98.6
95.6
92.5
94.5
90.0
40.1
70.5
81.7
57.8
70.3
49.1
17.3
28.0
17.4
18.9
16.2
8.1

Women, 16 and o v e r..............
16 to 24 ................................
16 to 19 ............................
16 and 1 7 ....................
18 and 1 9 ....................
20 and over ..........................
20 to 24 ............................
25 to 54 ................................
25 to 34 ............................
25 to 29 .......................
30 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ............................
35 to 39 .......................
40 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ............................
45 to 49 .......................
50 to 54 .......................
55 and o v e r ..........................
55 to 64 ............................
55 to 59 .......................
60 to 64 .......................
60 and 61 ................
62 to 6 4 ...................
65 and over .....................
65 to 69 .......................
70 to 74 .......................
70 and 71 ................
72 to 74 ...................
75 and o v e r .................

63,024
11,280
3,825
1,570
2,255
59,199
7,455
45,044
18,357
8,819
9,538
16,822
8,736
8,086
9,865
5,490
4,375
6,700
5,259
3,405
1,854
921
933
1,441
875
363
165
198
203

64,289
11,241
3,790
1,592
2,198
60,499
7,451
46,233
18,311
8,671
9,640
17,279
9,127
8,152
10,643
6,010
4,633
6,815
5,358
3,540
1,818
888
930
1,457
875
375
170
205
207

65,549
11,256
3,826
1,621
2,205
61,723
7,430
47,340
18,203
8,486
9,717
17,835
9,426
8,409
11,302
6,293
5,009
6,953
5,483
3,691
1,792
873
919
1,470
876
381
170
211
213

66,774
11,209
3,896
1,661
2,235
62,878
7,313
48,450
18,101
8,353
9,748
18,389
9,697
8,692
11,960
6,647
5,313
7,115
5,638
3,867
1,771
871
900
1,477
872
387
169
218
218

67,968
11,155
3,980
1,709
2,271
63,988
7,175
49,525
18,000
8,329
9,671
18,921
9,934
8,987
12,604
7,023
5,581
7,288
5,806
4,052
1,754
875
879
1,482
868
391
170
221
223

63.7
73.2
59.8
50.0
69.2
64.0
82.8
82.9
86.2
86.3
86.1
85.2
85.4
85.1
74.1
75.5
72.5
22.9
47.7
62.7
33.1
41.0
27.8
7.9
16.0
7.8
8.2
7.5
2.5

64.5
74.0
60.2
50.5
69.9
64.8
83.9
84.0
87.3
87.4
87.2
86.5
86.7
86.3
75.4
76.2
74.4
23.2
48.9
64.8
33.1
41.1
27.9
7.9
16.1
7.9
8.3
7.6
2.5

65.3
74.7
60.7
51.0
70.6
65.6
84.8
85.0
88.3
88.4
88.2
87.7
88.0
87.4
76.6
77.0
76.1
23.5
50.2
66.9
33.1
41.3
27.9
7.9
16.2
7.9
8.3
7.6
2.5

66.0
75.2
61.2
51.4
71.2
66.4
85.8
86.0
89.3
89.4
89.2
88.8
89.1
88.5
77.7
77.7
77.8
23.8
51.5
68.7
33.3
41.4
28.0
7.8
16.3
7.9
8.3
7.7
2.5

66.7
75.7
61.6
51.9
71.8
67.1
86.6
86.9
90.2
90.3
90.2
89.9
90.2
89.4
78.8
78.3
79.3
24.2
52.8
70.4
33.4
41.5
28.0
7.7
16.3
7.9
8.3
7.7
2.5




54

A-2. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, high growth path—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

113,997

115,387

116,795

118,173

119,560

70.8

71.2

71.7

72.1

72.5

Men, 16 and o v e r ................

60,784

61,180

61,592

62,006

62,451

79.0

79.0

79.0

79.1

79.2

16 to 24 ............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and o v e r ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 ............................
25 to 34 ................. .......
35 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and oyer ..................

9,868
3,607
57,177
6,261
42,824
16,773
15,883
10,168
8,092
6,087
2,005

9,741
3,561
57,619
6,180
43,374
16,504
16,057
10,813
8,065
6,045
2,020

9,677
3,590
58,002
6,087
43,841
16,185
16,344
11,312
8,074
6,041
2,033

9,570
3,648
58,358
5,922
44,325
15,886
16,632
11,807
8,111
6,073
2,038

9,463
3,728
58,723
5,735
44,815
15,608
16,916
12,291
8,173
6,130
2,043

80.0
69.0
79.7
88.2
95.7
96.0
97.2
92.8
40.7
70.3
17.9

80.3
69.3
79.7
88.4
95.7
96.1
97.2
92.9
40.4
70.3
17.8

80.6
69.8
79.7
88.6
95.7
96.2
97.3
92.8
40.2
70.5
17.7

80.7
70.3
79.7
88.8
95.7
96.2
97.3
92.8
40.1
70.7
17.5

80.8
70.8
79.8
88.9
95.7
96.3
97.3
92.9
40.2
71.0
17.4

Women, 16 and o v e r...........

53,213

54,207

55,203

56,167

57,109

63.3

64.1

64.9

65.7

66.4

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 ........................
35 to 44 ........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and over ..................

9,514
3,329
49,884
6,185
37,824
15,165
14,141
8,518
5,875
4,599
1,276

9,454
3,294
50,913
6,160
38,777
15,089
14,491
9,197
5,976
4,689
1,287

9,446
3,322
51,881
6,124
39,660
14,958
14,936
9,766
6,097
4,800
1,297

9,392
3,379
52,788
6,013
40,535
14,833
15,370
10,332
6,240
4,940
1,300

9,330
3,451
53,658
5,879
41,384
14,719
15,785
10,880
6,395
5,093
1,302

75.7
63.9
63.2
84.0
82.8
86.0
85.0
74.7
22.7
48.0
7.9

76.4
64.3
64.1
84.9
83.9
87.1
86.3
76.0
23.0
49.4
7.8

77.0
64.8
64.9
85.8
85.0
88.2
87.5
77.3
23.3
50.8
7.8

77.5
65.3
65.7
86.6
86.0
89.2
88.7
78.5
23.7
52.3
7.7

77.9
65.8
66.4
87.4
87.0
90.1
89.7
79.6
24.1
53.7
7.7

Total, 16 and o v e r ...........

19,391

19,901

20,410

20,912

21,413

71.7

72.4

73.0

73.6

74.1

Men, 16 and o v e r ................

9,580

9,819

10,064

10,305

10,554

78.6

79.2

79.8

80.4

80.9

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 .........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 ........................
55 and o v e r ...........................................
55 to 64 .........................
65 and o v e r..................

1,800
629
8,951
1,171
6,892
3,040
2,478
1,374
888
700
188

1,814
635
9,184
1,179
7,102
3,065
2,571
1,466
903
713
190

1,836
654
9,410
1,182
7,305
3,080
2,672
1,553
923
730
193

1,844
680
9,625
1,164
7,517
3,091
2,787
1,639
944
749
195

1,858
708
9,846
1,150
7,730
3,093
2,905
1,732
966
769
197

71.5
55.3
81.0
84.7
93.0
93.5
95.0
88.3
39.3
65.3
15.8

72.5
56.6
81.5
85.4
93.4
94.1
95.3
88.8
39.4
65.7
15.8

73.5
58.1
81.9
86.2
93.8
94.6
95.7
89.4
39.7
66.1
15.8

74.4
59.7
82.4
86.8
94.2
95.1
96.0
89.8
39.9
66.5
15.7

75.2
61.3
82.8
87.5
94.6
95.6
96.4
90.3
40.1
66.9
15.6

Women, 16 and o v e r...........

9,811

10,082

10,346

10,607

10,859

66.1

66.8

67.4

68.0

68.5

16 to 24 .............................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and over ......................
20 to 24 ........................
25 to 54 .............................
25 to 34 .........................
35 to 44 .........................
45 to 54 .........................
55 and over ......................
55 to 64 ........................
65 and o v e r ..................

1,766
496
9,315
1,270
7,220
3,192
2,681
1,347
825
660
165

1,787
496
9,586
1,291
7,456
3,222
2,788
1,446
839
669
170

1,810
504
9,842
1,306
7,680
3,245
2,899
1,536
856
683
173

1,817
517
10,090
1,300
7,915
3,268
3,019
1,628
875
698
177

1,825
529
10,330
1,296
8,141
3,281
3,136
1,724
893
713
180

62.5
41.7
68.2
77.7
83.3
87.0
86.7
70.8
24.6
45.8
8.6

63.6
42.1
68.9
79.2
84.2
87.9
87.8
71.7
24.5
45.9
8.7

64.6
42.7
69.5
80.6
84.9
88.9
88.7
72.4
24.5
46.2
8.6

65.3
43.2
70.1
81.9
85.7
89.8
89.6
73.1
24.5
46.5
8.5

65.8
43.6
70.6
83.1
86.4
90.7
90.4
73.7
24.5
46.8
8.5

W hite

Black and o th e r




55

A-3. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, low growth path
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r .............
16 to 2 4 ...................................
20 and over ............................
25 to 5 4 ...................................
55 and over ............................

115,649
23,014
107,876
78,166
14,469

116,973
22,622
109,157
80,122
14,229

118,161
22,118
110,372
82,033
14,010

119,334
21,615
111,679
83,947
13,772

120,349
21,129
113,029
85,658
13,562

64.2
68.3
65.0
80.8
29.1

64.2
68.1
65.0
81.0
28.4

64.3
68.2
65.1
81.2
27.8

64.4
68.5
65.1
81.4
27.2

64.5
68.7
65.2
81.6
26.6

Men, 16 and o v e r ..................
16 to 24 ..............................
16 to 19 ..........................
16 and 1 7 ...................
18 and 1 9 ...................
20 and over ........................
20 to 24 ..........................
25 to 54 ..............................
25 to 34 ..........................
25 to 29 ......................
30 to 3 4 ......................
35 to 44 ..........................
35 to 39 ......................
40 to 44 ......................
45 to 54 ..........................
45 to 49 ......................
50 to 54 ......................
55 and over ........................
55 to 64 ..........................
55 to 59 ......................
60 to 64 ......................
60 and 61 ...............
62 to 6 4 ..................
65 and o v e r....................
65 to 69 ......................
70 to 74 ......................
70 and 71 ...............
72 to 7 4 ..................
75 and o v e r................

64,464
12,042
4,081
1,751
2,330
60,383
7,961
43,939
18,860
9,823
9,037
15,252
8,723
6,529
9,827
5,325
4,502
8,483
6,705
4,084
2,621
1,357
1,264
1,778
1,036
464
222
242
278

64,915
11,784
4,097
1,774
2,323
60,818
7,687
44,833
19,074
9,797
9,277
15,756
8,670
7,086
10,003
5,493
4,510
8,298
6,534
3,984
2,550
1,321
1,229
1,764
1,036
451
214
237
277

65,311
11,475
4,078
1,688
2,390
61,233
7,397
45,709
19,182
9,747
9,435
16,181
8,831
7,350
10,346
5,800
4,546
8,127
6,384
3,894
2,490
1,295
1,195
1,743
1,029
439
209
230
275

65,701
11,167
4,000
1,574
2,426
61,701
7,167
46,587
19,229
9,650
9,579
16,722
9,022
7,700
10,636
6,017
4,619
7,947
6,228
3,811
2,417
1,263
1,154
1,719
1,018
429
207
272

66,006
10,871
3,813
1,516
2,297
62,193
7,058
47,348
19,141
9,437
9,704
17,302
9,229
8,073
10,905
6,198
4,707
7,787
6,094
3,737
2,357
1,249
1,108
1,693
1,005
418
204
214
270

75.5
72.6
57.5
47.0
69.2
77.2
84.0
93.1
92.8
92.8
92.8
95.4
96.3
94.1
90.2
92.6
87.6
39.3
65.6
78.2
52.5
65.9
43.1
15.7
25.1
14.6
16.0
13.5
6.9

75.2
72.1
57.2
46.9
68.9
76.8
83.8
92.8
92.5
92.5
92.5
95.2
96.2
94.0
90.0
92.4
87.2
38.3
64.7
77.6
51.3
65.0
41.8
15.2
24.5
14.1
15.5
13.0
6.7

75.0
72.0
57.6
46.7
68.8
76.5
83.6
92.6
92.2
92.2
92.2
95.0
96.0
93.8
89.8
92.2
86.8
37.2
63.8
77.0
50.2
64.2
40.7
14.8
24.0
13.6
14.9
12.5
6.4

74.8
72.0
57.9
46.6
68.7
76.2
83.4
92.4
91.9
92.0
91.9
94.8
95.8
93.7
89.6
92.1
86.5
36.3
62.9
76.5
49.2
63.4
39.5
14.3
23.5
13.1
14.4
12.0
6.2

74.6
72.0
57.6
46.5
68.4
76.0
83.3
92.2
91.7
91.7
91.6
94.7
95.7
93.5
89.3
91.9
86.2
35.3
62.2
76.0
48.3
62.6
38.4
13.8
23.0
12.6
13.9
11.5
6.0

Women, 16 and o v e r.............
16 to 24 ..............................
16 to 19 ..........................
16 and 1 7 ...................
18 and 1 9 ...................
20 and o v e r ........................
20 to 24 ..........................
25 to 54 ..............................
25 to 34 ..........................
25 to 29 ......................
30 to 34 ......................
35 to 44 ..........................
35 to 39 ......................
40 to 44 ......................
45 to 54 ..........................
45 to 49 ......................
50 to 54 ......................
55 and o v e r ........................
55 to 64 ..........................
55 to 59 ......................
60 to 64 ......................
60 and 61 ...............
62 to 6 4 ..................
65 and o v e r.....................
65 to 69 ......................
70 to 74 ......................
70 and 71 ...............
72 to 7 4 ..................
75 and over ................

51,185
10,972
3,692
1,526
2,166
47,493
7,280
34,227
14,959
7,843
7,116
11,959
6,721
5,238
7,309
3,989
3,320
5,986
4,754
2,889
1,865
914
951
1,232
764
322
145
177
146

52,058
10,838
3,719
1,547
2,172
48,339
7,119
35,289
15,313
7,909
7,404
12,494
6,756
5,738
7,482
4,129
3,353
5,931
4,683
2,838
1,845
897
948
1,248
781
321
142
179
146

52,850
10,643
3,711
1,473
2,238
49,139
6,932
36,324
15,579
7,959
7,620
12,966
6,954
6,012
7,779
4,372
3,407
5,883
4,623
2,792
1,831
885
946
1,260
792
322
143
179
146

53,633
10,448
3,655
1,379
2,276
49,978
6,793
37,360
15,789
7,973
7,816
13,532
7,176
6,356
8,039
4,551
3,488
5,825
4,558
2,750
1,808
870
938
1,267
800
323
145
178
144

54,343
10,258
3,507
1,331
2,176
50,836
6,751
38,310
15,893
7,903
7,990
14,132
7,409
6,723
8,285
4,701
3,584
5,775
4,501
2,713
1,788
862
926
1,274
806
325
147
178
143

54.0
64.1
51.9
42.2
61.8
54.2
72.8
69.1
70.9
71.8
70.0
71.2
70.8
71.6
62.7
65.4
59.8
21.3
40.7
49.5
31.9
38.6
27.4
7.5
14.8
7.4
7.9
7.0
2.1

54.3
64.2
51.9
42.2
62.0
54.5
73.4
69.8
71.7
72.6
70.8
72.0
71.6
72.4
63.0
65.6
60.1
20.9
40.6
49.6
31.8
38.5
27.3
7.4
14.8
7.3
7.8
7.0
2.0

54.7
64.6
52.3
42.1
62.2

55.0
65.1
52.8
42.1
62.4

55.3
65.6
52.8
42.1
62.5

54.8

55.2

55.5

73.9
70.4
72.5
73.4
71.6
72.7
72.4
73.1
63.3
65.7
60.3
20.6
40.5
49.6
31.7
38.3
27.3
7.3
14.8
7.3
7.7
7.0
2.0

74.5
71.0
73.2
74.1
72.3
73.5
73.1
73.8
63.5
65.9
60.7
20.2
40.5
49.7
31.6
38.1
27.3
7.2
14.7
7.2
7.7
6.9
1.9

75.0
71.5
73.9
74.8
73.0
74.2
73.8
74.5
63.7
66.0
60.9
19.9
40.5
49.7
31.6
38.0
27.3
7.1
14.7
7.2
7.6
6.9
1.8




222

56

A-3. Civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, low growth path—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r..........

100,395

101,394

102,267

103,121

103,841

64.5

64.6

64.7

64.8

64.9

Men, 16 and o v e r ...............

56,775

57,106

57,382

57,648

57,843

76.4

76.2

75.9

75.8

75.6

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 .......................
20 and o v e r.....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ...........................
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and over .....................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................

10,496
3,619
53,156
6,877
38,546
16,377
13,419
8,750
7,733
6,093
1,640

10,276
3,634
53,472
6,642
39,268
16,526
13,840
8,902
7,562
5,932
1,630

10,009
3,617
53,765
6,392
39,973
16,585
14,179
9,209
7,400
5,787
1,613

9,740
3,549
54,099
6,191
40,676
16,589
14,622
9,465
7,232
5,638
1,594

9,482
3,382
54,461
6,100
41,281
16,479
15,097
9,705
7,080
5,507
1,573

75.5
61.5
77.7
85.8
94.2
94.1
96.1
91.5
39.8
66.4
16.0

75.2
61.3
77.4
85.8
94.0
93.9
96.0
91.3
38.7
65.5
15.5

75.2
61.8
77.1
85.8
93.8
93.7
95.8
91.1
37.7
64.6
15.1

75.4
62.3
76.9
85.8
93.6
93.5
95.7
90.9
36.7
63.8
14.7

75.5
62.1
76.6
85.8
93.5
93.3
95.6
90.7
35.8
63.0
14.2

Women, 16 and o v e r..........

43,620

44,288

44,885

45,473

45,998

53.7

54.0

54.3

54.7

55.0

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 .......................
20 and over .....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ................ ...........
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and over .....................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................

9,442
3,257
40,363
6,185
28,951
12,498
10,161
6,292
5,227
4,138
1,089

9,312
3,276
41,012
6,036
29,811
12,773
10,601
6,437
5,165
4,064
1,101

9,130
3,266
41,619
5,864
30,646
12,973
10,979
6,694
5,109
3,999
1,110

8,944
3,212
42,261
5,732
31,483
13,128
11,438
6,917
5,046
3,930
1,116

8,766
3,077
42,921
5,689
32,244
13,189
11,928
7,127
4,988
3,869
1,119

66.8
55.7
53.5
74.7
68.9
70.8
70.8
62.7
20.8
40.2
7.4

67.0
55.7
53.9
75.3
69.6
71.6
71.7
63.1
20.4
40.1
7.3

67.4
56.2
54.2
75.9
70.2
72.4
72.5
63.4
20.1
40.0
7.2

68.0
56.7
54.6
76.5
70.9
73.2
73.3
63.7
19.7
39.9
7.1

68.5
56.8
54.9
77.1
71.5
73.9
74.1
63.9
19.4
39.9
7.0

Total, 16 and o v e r..........

15,254

15,579

15,894

16,213

16,508

62.0

61.9

62.0

62.0

62.1

Men, 16 and over ...............

7,689

7,809

7,929

8,053

8,163

69.4

68.9

68.6

68.4

68.2

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 .......................
20 and over .....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ...........................
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and over .......................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................

1,546
462
7,227
1,084
5,393
2,483
T833
1,077
750
612
138

1,508
463
7,346
1,045
5,565
2,548
1^916
1,101
736
602
134

1,466
461
7,468
1,005
5,736
2,597
2'002
1,137
727
597
130

1,427
451
7,602
976
5,911
2,640
2’100
1,171
715
590
125

1,389
431
7,732
958
6,067
2,662
2 ’205
1,200
707
587
120

57.8
38.3
73.2
73.8
85.9
85.0
90.1
81.3
35.3
58.5
12.8

56.6
37.6
72.8
72.8
85.4
84.4
89.7
80.8
34.3
57.6
12.2

55.8
37.5
72.3
71.9
84.9
83.7
89.5
80.4
33.4
56.8
11.6

55.2
37.3
71.9
71.0
84.5
83.2
89.1
79.9
32.5
56.0
10.9

54.7
36.7
71.6
70.2
84.1
82.6
88.9
79.5
31.8
55.4
10.3

Women, 16 and o v e r..........

7,565

7,770

7,965

8,160

8,345

55.9

56.2

56.5

56.9

57.2

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 .......................
20 and over .....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ...........................
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and over .....................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................

1,530
435
7,130
1,095
5,276
2,461
1,798
1,017
759
616
143

1,526
443
7,327
1,083
5.478
2,540
1,893
1,045
766
619
147

1,513
445
7,520
1,068
5,678
2,606
1,987
1,085
774
624
150

1,504
443
7,717
1,061
5,877
2,661
2,094
1,122
779
628
151

1,492
430
7,915
1,062
6,066
2,704
2,204
1,158
787
632
155

51.2
34.4
58.1
63.6
70.2
71.8
73.0
62.5
25.0
44.7
8.6

51.2
34.4
58.4
64.1
70.6
72.4
73.4
62.6
24.8
44.6
8.6

51.5
34.6
58.7
64.6
71.0
72.9
73.9
62.6
24.5
44.4
8.5

52.0
35.0
59.0
65.1
71.3
73.4
74.3
62.6
24.2
44.4
8.4

52.4
35.0
59.2
65.6
71.7
73.9
74.7
62.6
23.9
44.3
8.3

W hite

Black and oth er




57

A-3. Civilian labor fore© and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, tow growth path—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total, 16 and o v e r.............
16 to 2 4 ...................................
20 and over ............................
25 to 5 4 ...................................
55 and over ............................

121,378
20,839
114,388
87,150
13,389

122,265
20,547
115,420
88,486
13,232

123,180
20,366
116,342
89,661
13,153

124,095
20,083
117,197
90,881
13,131

125,053
19,805
118,063
92,094
13,154

64.5
68.9
65.2
81.8
26.1

64.5
68.9
65.2
81.9
25.6

64.5
68.9
65.2
82.0
25.3

64.5
68.7
65.2
82.1
25.0

64.5
68.5
65.2
82.2
24.9

Men, 16 and over ..................
16 to 24 ..............................
16 to 19 ..........................
16 and 1 7 ...................
18 and 1 9 ...................
20 and over ........................
20 to 24 ..........................
25 to 54 ..............................
25 to 34 ..........................
25 to 29 ......................
30 to 34 ......................
35 to 44 ..........................
35 to 39 ......................
40 to 44 ......................
45 to 54 ..........................
45 to 49 ......................
50 to 54 ......................
55 and o v e r ........................
55 to 64 ..........................
55 to 59 ......................
60 to 64 ......................
60 and 61 ...............
62 to 6 4 ..................
65 and o v e r....................
65 to 6 9 ......................
70 to 74 ......................
70 and 71 ...............
72 to 7 4 ..................
75 and o v e r................

66,318
10,680
3,628
1,502
2,126
62,690
7,052
47,989
18,931
9,093
9,838
17,911
9,407
8,504
11,147
6,329
4,818
7,649
5,985
3,700
2,285
1,218
1,067
1,664
984
413
203
210
267

66,587
10,491
3,544
1,504
2,040
63,043
6,947
48,572
18,616
8,800
9,816
18,130
9,673
8,457
11,826
6,862
4,964
7,524
5,893
3,700
2,193
1,159
1,034
1,631
962
406
199
207
263

66,879
10,364
3,535
1,515
2,020
63,344
6,829
49,068
18,249
8,483
9,766
18,469
9,854
8,615
12,350
7,114
5,236
7,447
5,844
3,723
2,121
1,126
995
1,603
944
397
192
205
262

67,182
10,184
3,560
1,537
2,023
63,622
6,624
49,594
17,901
8,229
9,672
18,821
10,019
8,802
12,872
7,445
5,427
7,404
5,836
3,777
2,059
1,110
949
1,568
922
386
184
202
260

67,536
10,013
3,606
1,566
2,040
63,930
6,407
50,130
17,573
8,108
9,465
19,170
10,166
9,004
13,387
7,802
5,585
7,393
5,855
3,847
2,008
1,102
906
1,538
903
376
180
196
259

74.4
71.9
57.0
46.4
68.0
75.7
83.1
92.0
91.4
91.5
91.3
94.5
95.5
93.4
89.1
91.7
85.9
34.5
61.5
75.5
47.3
61.9
37.3
13.4
22.5
12.1
13.4
11.1
5.8

74.1
71.7
56.6
46.3
67.8
75.4
83.0
91.8
91.1
91.2
91.0
94.4
95.4
93.2
89.0
91.6
85.6
33.8
60.9
75.0
46.2
61.2
36.3
13.0
22.1
11.6
12.9
10.7
5.6

73.9
71.4
56.4
46.2
67.6
75.2
82.8
91.5
90.9
91.0
90.8
94.2
95.3
93.1
88.7
91.4
85.3
33.2
60.4
74.5
45.3
60.5
35.3
12.6
21.7
11.2
12.4
10.3
5.4

73.7
71.0
56.3
46.2
67.5
75.0
82.7
91.3
90.6
90.7
90.5
94.1
95.1
93.0
88.5
91.2
85.1
32.8
60.1
74.1
44.6
59.9
34.4
12.2
21.4
10.8
11.9
9.9
5.3

73.5
70.6
56.1
46.1
67.3
74.8
82.5
91.2
90.4
90.5
90.3
94.0
95.0
92.9
88.3
91.0
84.8
32.5
59.8
73.7
44.0
59.2
33.6
11.8
21.1
10.4
11.6
9.5
5.1

Women, 16 and o v e r.............
16 to 24 ..............................
16 to 19 ..........................
16 and 1 7 ...................
18 and 1 9 ...................
20 and o v e r ........................
20 to 24 ..........................
25 to 54 ..............................
25 to 34 ..........................
25 to 29 ......................
30 to 34 ......................
35 to 44 ..........................
35 to 39 ......................
40 to 44 ......................
45 to 54 ..........................
45 to 49 ......................
50 to 54 ......................
55 and over ........................
55 to 64 ..........................
55 to 59 ......................
60 to 64 ......................
60 and 61 ...............
62 to 6 4 ..................
65 and o v e r....................
65 to 69 ......................
70 to 74 ......................
70 and 71 ...............
72 to 7 4 ..................
75 and o v e r................

55,060
10,159
3,362
1,322
2,040
51,698
6,797
39,161
15,883
7,717
8,166
14,769
7,624
7,145
8,509
4,817
3,692
5,740
4,466
2,702
1,764
851
913
1,274
804
329
150
179
141

55,678
10,056
3,301
1,328
1,973
52,377
6,755
39,914
15,778
7,558
8,220
15,076
7,912
7,164
9,060
5,231
3,829
5,708
4,439
2,718
1,721
814
907
1,269
798
332
151
181
139

56,301
10,002
3,303
1,339
1,964
52,998
6,699
40,593
15,625
7,370
8,255
15,474
8,122
7,352
9,494
5,434
4,060
5,706
4,440
2,750
1,690
795
895
1,266
794
335
150
185
137

56,913
9,899
3,338
1,360
1,978
53,575
6,561
41,287
15,483
7,230
8,253
15,874
8,308
7,566
9,930
5,699
4,231
5,727
4,467
2,804
1,663
789
874
1,260
786
338
149
189
136

57,517
9,792
3,384
1,386
1,998
54,133
6,408
41,964
15,347
7,186
8,161
16,260
8,470
7,790
10,357
5,981
4,376
5,761
4,509
2,869
1,640
787
853
1,252
778
340
149
191
134

55.7
66.0
52.5
42.1
62.6
55.9
75.5
72.1
74.6
75.5
73.7
74.8
74.5
75.2
63.9
66.2
61.2
19.7
40.5
49.8
31.5
37.9
27.2
7.0
14.7
7.1
7.5
6.8
1.7

55.9
66.2
52.4
42.1
62.7
56.1
76.0
72.5
75.2
76.2
74.3
75.5
75.2
75.8
64.2
66.3
61.5
19.4
40.5
49.8
31.3
37.7
27.2
6.9
14.7
7.0
7.4
6.7
1.7

56.1
66.4
52.4
42.1
62.8
56.3
76.5
72.9
75.8
76.8
75.0
76.1
75.8
76.4
64.4
66.5
61.7
19.3
40.6
49.8
31.3
37.6
27.2
6.8
14.7
6.9
7.3
6.7
1.6

56.3
66.4
52.4
42.1
63.0
56.5
76.9
73.3
76.4
77.4
75.5
76.7
76.4
77.0
64.5
66.6
62.0
19.2
40.8
49.8
31.2
37.5
27.1
6.7
14.7
6.9
7.3
6.6
1.6

56.5
66.4
52.4
42.1
63.1
56.7
77.3
73.6
76.9
77.9
76.1
77.2
76.9
77.5
84.7
66.7
62.2
19.1
41.0
49.9
31.2
37.4
27.1
6.5
14.6
6.9
7.2
6.6
1.5




58

A -3. Civilian lab or fore© and participation rates by age, sex, and race, 1986-95, low growth path—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Sex, age, and race
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total, 16 and o v e r..........

104,576

105,193

105,838

106,481

107,165

64.9

64.9

64.9

65.0

65.0

Men, 16 and o v e r ...............

58,046

58,211

58,397

58,593

58,834

75.4

75.2

74.9

74.8

74.6

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 .......................
20 and over .....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ...........................
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and over .....................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and o v e r.................

9,316
3,224
54,822
6,092
41,782
16,264
15,600
9,918
6,948
5,400
1,548

9,153
3,154
55,057
5,999
42,234
15,959
15,748
10,527
6,824
5,307
1,517

9,047
3,151
55,246
5,896
42,609
15,611
16,008
10,990
6,741
5,254
1,487

8,900
3,177
55,416
5,723
43,001
15,283
16,269
11,449
6,692
5,239
1,453

8,755
3,223
55,611
5,532
43,406
14,982
16,527
11,897
6,673
5,250
1,423

75.6
61.6
76.4
85.8
93.3
93.1
95.4
90.5
34.9
62.4
13.8

75.5
61.4
76.2
85.8
93.2
92.9
95.3
90.4
34.2
61.8
13.3

75.3
-61.3
75.9
85.8
93.0
92.8
95.3
90.2
33.6
61.3
12.9

75.0
61.2
75.7
85.8
92.8
92.6
95.2
90.0
33.1
61.0
12.5

74.7
61.2
75.5
85.8
92.7
92.4
95.1
89.9
32.8
60.8
12.1

Women, 16 and o v e r..........

46,530

46,982

47,441

47,888

48,331

55.3

55.6

55.8

56.0

56.2

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 .......................
20 and over .....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ...........................
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and o v e r .....................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and o v e r.................

8,664
2,948
43,582
5,716
32,920
13,155
12,448
7,317
4,946
3,828
1,118

8,563
2,893
44,089
5,670
33,512
13,040
12,679
7,793
4,907
3,795
1,112

8,508
2,895
44,546
5,613
34,041
12,883
12,996
8,162
4,892
3,786
1,106

8,415
2,924
44,964
5,491
34,574
12,735
13,308
8,531
4,899
3,802
1,097

8,316
2,965
45,366
5,351
35,097
12,601
13,608
8,888
4,918
3,831
1,087

68.9
56.6
55.3
77.6
72.1
74.6
74.8
64.2
19.1
39.9
6.9

69.2
56.5
55.5
78.2
72.5
75.3
75.5
64.4
18.9
40.0
'6.8

69.4
56.5
55.7
78.6
73.0
76.0
76.2
64.6
18.7
40.1
6.6

69.5
56.5
56.0
79.1
73.4
76.6
76.8
64.8
18.6
40.2
6.5

69.5
56.5
56.1
79.6
73.8
77.2
77.4
65.0
18.6
40.4
6.4

Total, 16 and o v e r..........

16,802

17,072

17,342

17,614

17,888

62.1

62.1

62.0

62.0

61.9

Men, 16 and o v e r ...............

8,272

8,376

8,482

8,589

8,702

67.8

67.6

67.3

67.0

66.7

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 ........................
20 and over .....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ...........................
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 ..... ..................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and over .....................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................

1,364
404
7,868
960
6,207
2,667
2,311
1,229
701
585
116

1,338
390
7,986
948
6,338
2,657
2,382
1,299
700
586
114

1,317
384
8,098
933
6,459
2,638
2,461
1,360
706
590
116

1,284
383
8,206
901
6,593
2,618
2,552
1,423
712
597
115

1,258
383
8,319
875
6,724
2,591
2,643
1,490
720
605
115

54.1
35.5
71.2
69.5
83.7
82.1
88.6
79.0
31.0
54.6
9.8

53.5
34.8
70.8
68.7
83.3
81.6
88.3
78.7
30.6
54.0
9.5

52.7
34.1
70.5
68.0
82.9
81.0
88.1
78.3
30.4
53.4
9.5

51.8
33.6
70.2
67.2
82.6
80.6
87.9
78.0
30.1
53.0
9.3

50.9
33.2
70.0
66.5
82.3
80.1
87.7
77.6
29.9
52.7
9.1

Women, 16 and o v e r..........

8,530

8,696

8,860

9,025

9,186

57.5

57.6

57.8

57.9

58.0

16 to 24 ...........................
16 to 19 .......................
20 and o v e r .....................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 ...........................
25 to 34 .......................
35 to 44 .......................
45 to 54 .......................
55 and o v e r .....................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................

1,495
414
8,116
1,081
6,241
2,728
2,321
1,192
794
638
156

1,493
408
8,288
1,085
6,402
2,738
2,397
1,267
801
644
157

1,494
408
8,452
1,086
6,552
2,742
2,478
1,332
814
654
160

1,484
414
8,611
1,070
6,713
2,748
2,566
1,399
828
665
163

1,476
419
8,767
1,057
6,867
2,746
2,652
1,469
843
678
165

52.9
34.8
59.4
66.1
72.0
74.3
75.1
62.6
23.7
44.2
8.2

53.2
34.7
59.6
66.5
72.3
74.7
75.4
62.8
23.4
44.2
8.0

53.3
34.5
59.7
67.0
72.5
75.1
75.8
62.7
23.3
44.2
7.9

53.3
34.6
59.8
67.4
72.7
75.5
76.1
62.8
23.2
44.3
7.9

53.2
34.6
59.9
67.8
72.9
75.9
76.4
62.8
23.1
44.5
7.8

Whit©

Black and oth er




59

A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and growth path, 1986-95
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Growth path, sex, and age
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r .................................

12,476

12,767

13,040

13,324

13,600

62.6

62.9

63.2

63.7

64.1

Men, 16 and o v e r ......................................

6,245

6,358

6,464

6,577

6,687

70.1

70.0

70.1

70.2

70.4

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 19 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r........................................

1,296
369
5,876
927
4,323
2,071
1,404
848
626
505
121

1,262
370
5,988
892
4,480
2,143
1,473
864
616
497
119

1,223
367
6,097
856
4,635
2,200
1,542
893
606
490
116

1,187
358
6,219
829
4,791
2,250
1,624
917
599
485
114

1,156
346
6,341
810
4,939
2,286
1,712
941
592
481
111

58.2
36.8
74.3
75.8
87.6
88.4
89.8
82.3
35.8
59.3
13.5

57.1
36.3
74.3
75.0
87.5
88.3
89.8
82.3
35.1
58.8
13.1

56.5
36.3
74.2
74.2
87.5
88.1
89.8
82.3
34.4
58.3
12.6

56.1
36.3
74.2
73.4
87.4
87.9
89.8
82.3
33.8
57.9
12.2

55.9
36.3
74.1
72.7
87.4
87.8
89.8
82.3
33.2
57.5
11.7

Women, 16 and over ................................

6,231

6,409

6,576

6,747

6,913

56.5

57.1

57.7

58.4

59.0

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 19 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and over ........................................

1,262
358
5,873
904
4,353
2,056
1,461
836
616
505
111

1,256
363
6,046
893
4,536
2,132
1,542
862
617
505
112

1,239
360
6,216
879
4,716
2,197
1,623
896
621
506
115

1,223
351
6,396
872
4,899
2,254
1,719
926
625
507
118

1,210
340
6,573
870
5,073
2,296
1,821
956
630
509
121

50.4
33.7
58.9
62.6
72.6
74.1
76.0
64.2
24.4
44.6
8.0

50.5
33.7
59.5
63.3
73.4
75.0
76.9
64.8
24.1
44.5
7.8

50.8
33.7
60.2
64.0
74.2
75.9
77.7
65.2
23.9
44.5
7.9

51.2
33.7
60.8
64.7
74.9
76.7
78.6
65.6
23.7
44.6
7.9

51.8
33.7
61.4
65.5
75.7
77.5
79.4
66.0
23.6
44.6
7.9

Total, 16 and o v e r.................................

13,129

13,560

13,951

14,353

14,737

65.8

66.8

67.6

68.6

69.4

Men, 16 and o v e r ......................................

6,540

6,731

6,909

7,093

7,269

73.4

74.1

74.9

75.7

76.5

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 19 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r........................................

1,436
440
6,100
996
4,432
2,137
1,431
864
672
532
140

1,438
461
6,270
977
4,622
2,229
1,507
886
671
529
142

1,429
475
6,434
954
4,808
2,306
1,582
920
672
528
144

1,421
481
6,612
940
4,998
2,376
1,672
950
674
528
146

1,413
478
6,791
935
5,179
2,430
1,770
979
677
529
148

64.5
43.9
77.2
81.4
89.8
91.2
91.6
83.9
38.5
62.4
15.6

65.1
45.2
77.8
82.1
90.3
91.8
91.9
84.4
38.3
62.6
15.6

66.0
47.0
78.3
82.7
90.7
92.4
92.1
84.8
38.1
62.8
15.6

67.2
48.7
78.9
83.3
91.2
92.8
92.5
85.3
38.0
63.0
15.6

68.4
50.2
79.4
83.9
91.6
93.4
92.8
85.7
37.9
63.3
15.6

Women, 16 and over ................................

6,589

6,829

7,042

7,260

7,468

59.7

60.8

61.8

62.8

63.7

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 19 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and over ........................................

1,354
384
6,205
970
4,608
2,212
1,539
857
627
512
115

1,369
397
6,432
972
4,829
2,308
1,633
888
631
514
117

1,371
403
6,639
968
5,037
2,385
1,724
928
634
515
119

1,373
402
6,858
971
5,249
2,454
1,830
965
638
516
122

1,375
396
7,072
979
5,451
2,507
1,943
1,001
642
517
125

54.0
36.2
62.2
67.1
76.8
79.7
80.1
65.8
24.8
45.2
8.2

55.0
36.9
63.3
68.9
78.1
81.2
81.4
66.7
24.6
45.3
8.2

56.2
37.7
64.3
70.5
79.2
82.4
82.6
67.5
24.4
45.3
8.1

57.5
38.6
65.2
72.1
80.3
83.5
83.7
68.4
24.2
45.3
8.2

58.8
39.3
66.1
73.7
81.3
84.6
84.7
69.1
24.0
45.3
8.2

Middle

High




60

A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by'age, sex, and growth path, 19®6"9i” Continu@d
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Growth path, sex, and age
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Total, 16 and o v e r.................................

12,222

12,452

12,657

12,874

13,078

61.3

61.3

61.4

61.5

61.6

Men, 16 and o v e r ......................................

6,126

6,207

6,279

6,359

6,431

68.8

68.4

68.1

67.9

67.7

16 to 24 ........................ .........................
16 to 1 9 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
45 to 5 4 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r........................................

1,280
362
5,764
918
4,241
2,028
1,387
826
605
490
115

1,244
362
5,845
882
4,373
2,087
1,450
836
590
479
111

1,200
356
5,923
844
4,502
2,130
1,513
859
577
470
107

1,161
345
6,014
816
4,634
2,169
1,588
877
564
462
102

1.122
326
6,105
796
4,756
2,191
1,670
895
553
455
98

57.5
36.1
72.9
75.1
85.9
86.6
88.7
80.2
34.6
57.5
12.8

56.3
35.5
72.5
74.1
85.4
86.0
88.4
79.6
33.7
56.7
12.2

55.4
35.2
72.1
73.1
85.0
85.3
88.1
79.2
32.7
55.9
11.6

54.9
35.0
71.7
72.3
84.5
84.8
87.8
78.7
31.8
55.1
10.9

54.3
34.2
71.4
71.5
84.1
84.2
87.6
78.3
31.0
54.4
10.3

Women, 16 and o v e r ................................

6,096

6,245

6,378

6,515

6,647

55.3

55.6

56.0

56.4

56.7

16 to 2 4 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and o v e r............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r........................................

1,252
352
5,744
900
4,232
2,005
1,416
811
612
503
109

1,243
357
5,888
886
4,388
2,071
1,487
830
614
502
112

1,223
354
6,024
869
4,539
2,125
1,557
857
616
501
115

1,205
346
6,169
859
4,691
2,171
1,640
880
619
502
117

1,188
334
6,313
854
4,835
2,203
1,729
903
624
504
120

50.0
33.2
57.6
62.3
70.6
72.3
73.7
62.3
24.2
44.4
7.8

50.0
33.2
58.0
62.8
71.0
72.8
74.1
62.4
24.0
44.3
7.8

50.1
33.1
58.3
63.3
71.4
73.4
74.6
62.4
23.7
44.1
7.9

50.4
33.2
58.7
63.8
71.8
73.9
75.0
62.4
23.5
44.1
7.8

50.8
33.1
59.0
64.3
72.1
74.4
75.4
62.4
23.3
44.2
7.8

Low




_____

61

A -4. Black civilian lab o r fo rc e a nd participation rates by age, sex, and g ro w th path, 1986-95— C ontinued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Growth path, sex, and age
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total, 16 and o v e r.................................

13,877

14,119

14,361

14,593

14,833

64.5

64.8

65.0

65.2

65.4

Men, 16 and o v e r ......................................

6,800

6,895

6,990

7,086

7,187

70.5

70.6

70.5

70.5

70.5

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 3 4 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r........................................

1,140
332
6,468
808
5,073
2,302
1,807
964
587
479
108

1,121
326
6,569
795
5,190
2,301
1,870
1,019
584
478
106

1,105
326
6,664
779
5,304
2,293
1,941
1,070
581
478
103

1,077
329
6,757
748
5,428
2,281
2,024
1,123
581
481
100

1,055
333
6,854
722
5,549
2,261
2,109
1,179
583
485
98

56.0
36.3
74.1
72.1
87.3
87.7
89.8
82.3
32.6
57.2
11.2

55.7
36.3
74.0
71.4
87.2
87.5
89.8
82.3
32.3
56.9
10.9

55.3
36.3
74.0
70.9
87.1
87.3
89.8
82.3
31.8
56.6
10.5

54.6
36.3
73.9
70.2
87.1
87.2
89.8
82.3
31.5
56.3
10.1

54.0
36.3
73.9
69.6
87.0
87.1
89.8
82.3
31.3
56.2
9.8

Women, 16 and o v e r ................................

7,077

7,224

7,371

7,507

7,646

59.6

60.1

60.5

60.9

61.2

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 19 ..............................................
20 and over ............................................
20 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..................................... .........
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r....................................... .

1,210
327
6,750
883
5,234
2,323
1,929
982
633
510
123

1,206
321
6,903
885
5,379
2,333
2,005
1,041
639
513
126

1,205
322
7,049
883
5,521
2,340
2,086
1,095
645
517
128

1,189
324
7,183
865
5,665
2,343
2,171
1,151
653
522
131

1,180
328
7,318
852
5,805
2,338
2,257
1,210
661
527
134

52.5
33.7
61.9
66.1
76.4
78.3
80.2
66.4
23.3
44.6
7.8

52.9
33.6
62.4
66.8
77.0
79.1
81.0
66.8
23.2
44.6
7.9

53.2
33.7
62.8
67.5
77.6
79.8
81.7
67.1
23.1
44.6
7.8

53.2
33.7
63.2
68.0
78.1
80.5
82.4
67.5
23.0
44.6
7.9

53.2
33.7
63.6
68.5
78.6
81.1
83.0
67.8
22.9
44.5
7.9

Total, 16 and o v e r.................................

15,126

15,476

15,832

16,174

16,517

70.3

71.0

71.7

72.3

72.8

Men, 16 and o v e r ......................................

7,448

7,612

7,783

7,953

8,125

77.2

77.9

78.5

79.1

79.7

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 1 9 ..............................................
20 and o v e r............................................
20 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and o v e r............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r........................................

1,417
469
6,979
948
5,348
2,465
1,874
1,009
683
533
150

1,421
472
7,140
949
5,502
2,484
1,946
1,072
689
538
151

1,431
486
7,297
945
5,655
2,494
2,028
1,133
697
544
153

1,429
505
7,448
924
5,815
2,497
2,123
1,195
709
554
155

1,432
525
7,600
907
5,974
2,492
2,220
1,262
719
563
156

69.6
51.3
80.0
84.6
92.1
93.9
93.1
86.2
38.0
63.7
15.6

70.7
52.6
80.5
85.3
92.5
94.4
93.5
86.6
38.1
64.0
15.6

71.6
54.1
81.0
86.0
92.9
95.0
93.8
87.2
38.2
64.4
15.6

72.4
55.7
81.4
86.7
93.3
95.5
94.2
87.6
38.4
64.9
15.6

73.2
57.3
81.9
87.4
93.7
96.0
94.5
88.1
38.6
65.2
15.6

Women, 16 and over ................................

7,678

7,864

8,049

8,221

8,392

64.7

65.5

66.1

66 7

67.2

16 to 24 .... ..............................................
16 to 1 9 ..............................................
20 and o v e r............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 54 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r.........................................

1,390
385
7,293
1,005
5,642
2,544
2,063
1,035
646
518
128

1,399
383
7,481
1,016
5,813
2,559
2,150
1,104
652
522
130

1,411
388
7,661
1,023
5,979
2,571
2,241
1,167
659
526
133

1,407
396
7,825
1,011
6,148
2,580
2,337
1,231
666
530
136

1,407
405
7,987
1,002
6,311
2,579
2,432
1,300
674
536
138

60.3
39.7
66.9
75.3
82.3
85.7
85.8
69.9
23.8
45.3
8.2

61.4
40.1
67.6
76.7
83.2
86.7
86.8
70.8
23.7
45.4
8.1

62.3
40.6
68.3
78.2
84.0
87.7
87.7
71.6
23.6
45.3
8.1

63.0
41.2
68.9
79.5
84.8
88.6
88.7
72.2
23.5
45.3
8.2

63.5
41.6
69.4
80.6
85.4
89.5
89.4
72.9
23.4
45.3
8.1

M iddle

High




62

A-4. Black civilian labor force and participation rates by age, sex, and growth path, 1986-95— Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
Civilian labor force

Labor force participation rate

Number

Percent

Growth path, sex, and age
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Total, 16 and o v e r.................................

13,284

13,456

13,636

13,808

13,987

61.8

61.8

61.7

61.7

61.7

Men, 16 and o v e r ......................................

6,507

6,568

6,633

6,703

6,773

67.5

67.2

66.9

66.7

66.4

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 19 ..............................................
20 and o v e r ............................................
20 to 2 4 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................................................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 4 4 ..............................................
45 to 5 4 ..............................................
55 and over ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and o v e r........................................

1,098
305
6,202
793
4,864
2,196
1,756
912
545
450
95

1,071
292
6,276
779
4,958
2,187
1,811
960
539
446
93

1,048
287
6,346
761
5,047
2,169
1,875
1,003
538
444
94

1,015
285
6,418
730
5,148
2,149
1,951
1,048
540
445
95

986
283
6,490
703
5,244
2,121
2,028
1,095
543
447
96

53.9
33.3
71.1
70.7
83.7
83.7
87.3
77.9
30.3
53.8
9.9

53.3
32.5
70.7
70.0
83.3
83.2
87.0
77.5
29.8
53.1
9.6

52.5
31.9
70.4
69.2
82.9
82.6
86.8
77.2
29.5
52.5
9.6

51.4
31.4
70.2
68.5
82.6
82.1
86.6
76.8
29.3
52.1
9.6

50.4
30.9
70.0
67.7
82.2
81.7
86.4
76.5
29.1
51.8
9.6

Women, 16 and over ................................

6,777

6,888

7,003

7,105

7,214

57.1

57.3

57.5

57.7

57.8

16 to 24 ..................................................
16 to 19 ..............................................
20 and o v e r ............................................
20 to 24 ..............................................
25 to 54 ..................... .............................
25 to 34 ..............................................
35 to 44 ..............................................
45 to 5 4 ..............................................
55 and o v e r ............................................
55 to 5 9 ..........................................
65 and over ........................................

1,186
322
6,455
864
4,963
2,218
1,822
923
628
505
123

1,179
316
6,572
863
5,076
2,218
1,885
973
633
508
125

1,176
317
6,686
859
5,187
2,216
1,953
1,018
640
512
128

1,159
319
6,786
840
5,300
2,212
2,024
1,064
646
516
130

1,149
323
6,891
826
5,410
2,201
2,096
1,113
655
522
133

51.5
33.2
59.2
64.7
72.4
74.8
75.8
62.4
23.2
44.1
7.8

51.8
33.1
59.4
65.2
72.7
75.2
76.1
62.4
23.0
44.1
7.8

51.9
33.2
59.6
65.6
72.9
75.6
76.5
62.4
22.9
44.1
7.8

51.9
33.2
59.7
66.0
73.1
76.0
76.8
62.4
22.8
44.1
7.8

51.8
33.2
59.9
66.5
73.2
76.3
77.1
62.4
22.7
44.1
7.8

Low




63

A-5. Labor force and participation rates by sex and growth path, 1988-95
(Numbers in thousands)
Labor force
Number

Growth path and year

Participation rate
Percent

Total

Men

Women

Total

Men

Women

M iddle
1 9 8 6 ......................................
1987 ......................................
1 9 8 8 ......................................
1989 ......................................
1990 ......................................
1991 ......................................
1992 ......................................
1 9 9 3 ......................................
1 9 9 4 ......................................
1995 ......................................

120,314
122,049
123,635
125,191
126,577
127,974
129,210
130,484
131,730
133,018

66,941
67,575
68,146
68,701
69,162
69,629
70,048
70,494
70,942
71,436

53,373
54,474
55,489
56,490
57,415
58,345
59,162
59,990
60,788
61,582

66.1
66.4
66.6
66.9
67.2
67.4
67.6
67.7
67.9
68.0

77.0
76.9
76.8
76.8
76.8
58.9
76.6
76.5
76.4
76.4

56.2
56.7
57.3
57.9
58.4
58.9
59.3
59.7
60.0
60.3

124,057
126,504
128,786
131,046
133,097
135,166
137,066
138,983
140,863
142,751

68,134
69,010
69,818
70,609
71,287
71,977
72,612
73,269
73,924
74,618

55,923
57,494
58,968
60,437
61,810
63,189
64,454
65,714
66,939
68,133

68.2
68.8
69.4
70.0
70.6
71.2
71.7
72.1
72.6
73.0

78.4
78.5
78.7
78.9
79.1
79.3
79.4
79.5
79.6
79.8

58.9
59.9
60.9
61.9
62.8
63.8
64.6
65.4
66.1
66.8

117,414
118,751
119,939
121,112
122,127
123,156
124,043
124,958
125,873
126,831

66,069
66,528
66,924
67,314
67,619
67,931
68,200
68,492
68,795
69,149

51,345
52,223
53,015
53,798
54,508
55,225
55,843
56,466
57,078
57,682

64.5
64.6
64.6
64.7
64.8
64.9
64.9
64.9
64.8
64.8

76.0
75.7
75.4
75.2
75.0
74.8
74.6
74.3
74.1
73.9

54.1
54.4
54.7
55.1
55.4
55.7
56.0
56.2
56.4
56.5

High
1986 ......................................
1987 ......................................
1 9 8 8 ......................................
1989 ......................................
1 9 9 0 ......................................
1991 ......................................
1 9 9 2 ......................................
1993 ......................................
1994 ......................................
1995 ......................................
Low
1 9 8 6 ......................................
1987 ......................................
1988 ......................................
1989 ......................................
1990 ......................................
1991 ......................................
1 9 9 2 ......................................
1993 ......................................
1994 ......................................
1995 ......................................

NOTE: Includes the resident Armed Forces.




64

i- 1 . Va!lu@g ©f s@ e£© aggregate economic assumptions, 1988, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected 1990 and 1995
S@ d
1995 alternatives

1990 alternatives
Variable

1968

1973

1977

1982
Low

Moder­
ate

High

Low

Moder­
ate

High

D em ographic
Total population (m illions)....................................................
Civilian labor force (m illions)................................................

200.75
78.71

211.94
89.41

220.29
98.98

232.05
110.25

249.56
123.62

249.56
124.95

249.56
126.36

257.68
129.94

257.68
131.39

257.68
133.84

3.53
2.62
1.11
4.63
1.15
3.91
8.57

2.33
4.66
0.96
6.88
1.18
6.36
10.43

2.13
5.61
0.92
9.42
1.29
8.76
11.64

2.18
8.87
0.94
13.82
1.26
12.43
12.23

2.40
13.28
1.15
20.26
1.33
18.35
13.11

2.35
13.28
0.99
20.26
1.30
18.35
13.01

2.37
13.71
1.10
20.75
1.30
19.05
15.09

2.40
16.16
1.15
25.8(3
1.38
23.42
13.60

2.35
16.16
1.00
25.86
1.34
23.42
13.50

2.37
17.08
1.15
27.21
1.36
25.49
22.39

46.9

36.6

50.0

111.4

261.8

241.8

269.6

331.6

307.6

422.5

11.8

13.5

27.1

46.6

56.5

55.7

62.5

79.0

75.9

103.3
203.5

G overnm ent expenditures
Armed Forces (m illion s)................... ....................................
Implicit wage rate (dollars per hour) ..............................
Civilian defense employment (m illions)..............................
Implicit wage rate (dollars per hour) ..............................
Civilian nondefense employment (m illions)........................
Implicit wage rate (dollars per hour) ..............................
State and local government employment (m illion s).........
Defense purchases less compensation (billions of
current dollars) ................................................................
Nondefense purchases less compensation (billions of
current dollars) ................................................................
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments (billions of
current dollars) ................................................................
Federal health insurance transfers (billions of current
d o lla rs )..............................................................................
Federal retirement transfers (billions of current dollars) ..
Other assumed Federal transfers (billions of current
d o lla rs )..............................................................................

18.6

40.6

67.6

83.5

142.9

137.9

138.5

192.7

191.2

193.5
107.9

154.8
96.7

189.6
103.2

5.6
4.5

9.7
9.7

21.7
18.4

50.7
35.3

122.2
69.4

109.4
65.1

112.5
66.4

9.0

18.9

33.5

51.3

101.5

95.3

97.5

148.9

133.4

147.0

9.7
35.0
25.0

8.5
35.0
21.6

8.4
35.0
19.5

6.6
15.0
14.3

6.6
15.0
14.3

6.6
15.0
14.3

6.6
15.0
14.3

6.6
15.0
14.3

6.6
15.0
14.3

6.6
15.0
14.3

53.0
24.0
4.0
7,800

48.0
25.0
6.0
10,800

48.0
28.0
6.0
16,500

46.0
26.0
7.0
32,400

43.0
24.0
7.7
55,800

46.0
23.0
8.0
55,800

44.0
22.0
7.7
55,800

42.0
24.0
7.7
82,500

46.0
23.0
8.0
82,500

44.0
22.0
7.7
82,500

18.0

21.2

25.1

50.0

87.1

87.2

104.2

125.9

104.2

146.1

0.6

1.7
0
29.4

0.5
2.8
37.3

1.1
170.8
48.2

1.2
439.1
80.8

1.2
396.7
83.2

1.2
366.2
85.6

1.2
866.0
101.5

1.2
716.2
109.7

1.2
605.0
118.3

106.7
98.1
3.37
16.0
126.7
11.2
15.5

110.4
108.0
13.27
19.0
387.8
10.2
18.5
0.66

114.3
127.2
32.23
28.0
1,060.9
9.9
26.7
0.92

144.7
144.6
42.86
30.0
2,877.5
9.5
37.7
0.95

146.7
149.9
41.01
30.0
2,877.5
9.5
37.7
0.95

148.6
151.4
41.01
28.0
2,916.4
9.7
37.7
0.95

167.0
151.7
57.25
33.0
4,459.1
9.5
41.7
0.95

171.0
159.9
51.80
30.0
4,459.1
9.5
41.7
0.95

175.7
162.9
51.75
28.0
4,706.7
9.8
41.7
0.95

G overnm ent revenues
Tax life (years):
Equipm ent.......................................................................
Commercial structures...................................................
Other structures.......................... ....................................
Tax rate (percent):
Basic corporate t a x .......................................................
Average marginal personal ta x .....................................
Social security.................................................................
Tax base, social security (dollars) ......................................
Federal indirect business taxes (billions of current
d o lla rs)..............................................................................
M onetary
Borrowed reserves (billions of current d o lla rs ).................
Money market funds (billions of current d o lla rs )..............
Monetary base less currency (billions of current do lla rs).

O
22.6

O ther assum ptions
industrial production index, rest of world (index, 1975 =
1 0 0 )...................................................................................
Average value of the U.S. dollar (index, 1975 — 1 0 0 )....
Cost of imported oil (current dollars per barrel) ...............
Percent of new passenger cars im ported..........................
Producer Price Index for gas fuels (index, 1967 = 100) .
Domestic oil production (million barrels per d a y ).............
Average miles per gallon, new domestic c a r s ..................
Ratio of domestic to import oil p ric e ..................................

(1
)
114.3
2.29
11.0
92.7

O
15.7
0

O

1 Not available.




65

B-2. Rates of change in selected aggregate economic assumptions, 1968, 1973, 1977, 1982, and projected 1990 and
1995
(Average annual percent change)
Low
Variable

196873

197377

197782

1.1
2.6

1.0
2.6

-8.0
12.2
-2.9
8.2
0.9
10.2
4.0
-4.8
2.7
16.9
11.6
16.6
22.1

High

Moderate

198290

199095

198290

199095

198295

198290

199095

1.0
2.2

0.9
1.4

0.8
1.0

0.9
1.6

0.6
1.0

0.8
1.4

0.9
1.7

0.8
1.2

-2.2
4.7
-1.1
8.2
2.3
8.3
2.8
8.1
19.0
13.6
22.3
17.4
23.8

0.5
9.6
0.4
8.0
-0.5
7.2
1.0
17.4
11.5
4.3
18.5
13.9
12.1

1.2
5.9
2.6
4.9
0.7
5.0
0.9
11.3
2.4
6.9
11.6
8.8
9.5

0.0
4.0
1.0
5.0
0.7
5.0
0.7
4.8
6.9
6.2
9.6
9.2
8.2

0.9
5.2
0.6
4.9
0.4
5.0
0.8
10.2
2.3
6.5
10.1
7.9
8.7

0.0
4.0
0.2
5.0
0.6
5.0
0.7
4.9
6.4
6.8
7.2
8.2
7.2

0.6
4.7
0.5
4.9
0.5
5.0
0.8
8.1
3.8
6.6
9.0
8.1
8.1

1.1
5.6
2.0
5.2
0.5
5.5
2.7
11.7
3.7
6.5
10.5
8.2
9.0

0.0
4.5
0.9
5.6
0.8
6.0
8.2
9.4
10.6
8.0
11.0
9.2
9.0

-2.6
0.0
-2.9

-0.3
0.0
-2.5

-4.7
-15.6
-6.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

-2.0
0.8
8.4
3.3
6.7

0.0
2.9
0.0
3.4
11.2

-0.8
-1.5
3.1
14.8
14.4

0.0
-7.7
1.2
7.0
7.2

0.0
0.0
0.0
8.1
7.7

0.0
-1.5
1.7
7.2
7.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
8.1

0.0
-0.9
1.0
5.8
7.5

-0.6
-2.1
1.2
7.0
9.6

0.0
0.0
0.0
8.1
7.0

24.6

-27.6

1.1
12.5
6.7

0.0
14.5
4.7

1.7
11.1
7.1

0.0
12.5
5.7

1.0
11.7
6.5

1.1
10.0
7.4

0.0
10.6
6.7

3.0
1.6
3.6
0.9
13.3
-0.5
4.4
0.4

2.9
0.0
6.0
1.9
9.2
1.0
2.0
0.0

3.2
2.1
3.1
0.9
13.3
-0.5
4.4
0.4

3.1
1.3
4.8
0.0
9.2
0.0
2.0
0.0

3.1
1.8
3.7
0.5
11.7
-0.3
3.5
0.2

3.3
2.2
3.1
0.0
13.5
-2.0
4.4
0.4

3.4
1.5
4.8
0.0
10.0
0.2
2.0
0.0

Dem ographic
Total population....................................................................................
Civilian labor fo rc e ................................................................................
G overnm ent expenditures
Armed F o rc e s .......................................................................................
Implicit wage r a te .............................................................................
Civilian defense em ploym ent..............................................................
Implicit wage r a te .............................................................................
Civilian nondefense em ploym ent........................................................
Implicit wage r a te .............................................................................
State and local government em ploym ent.........................................
Defense purchases less compensation ............................................
Nondefense purchases less com pensation......................................
Grants-in-aid to State and local governm ents..................................
Federal health insurance tra n s fe rs ....................................................
Federal retirement transfers ...............................................................
Other assumed Federal transfers ......................................................
G overnm ent revenues
Tax life:
Equipm ent......................................................................................
Commercial stru cture s..................................................................
Other stru cture s............................... ..............................................
Tax rate:
Basic corporate ta x .......................................................................
Average marginal personal t a x ....................................................
Social secu rity................................................................................
Tax base, social secu rity.....................................................................
Federal indirect business ta x e s ..........................................................
M onetary
Borrowed re serves...............................................................................
Money market fu n d s ............................................................................
Monetary base less currency..............................................................

5.4

6.1

17.9
127.5
5.3

(1
)
-3.0
8.0
7.8
6.4
0
-0.3
0

0.9
2.4
40.9
4.4
32.3
-2.3
4.5
(1
)

0.7
3.3
19.4
8.1
22.3
-0.6
7.6
6.9

O

O

O ther assum ptions
Industrial production index, rest of w o rld ..........................................
Average value of the U.S. d o lla r........................................................
Cost of imported oil .............................................................................
Percent of new passenger cars im po rted.........................................
Producer Price Index for gas fuels ....................................................
Domestic oil production.......................................................................
Average miles per gallon, new domestic cars .................................
Ratio of domestic to import oil p r ic e .................................................
1 Not applicable.




66

C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

T o ta l....................................................................................

1,185,934

737,055

78,389

44,840

61,575

10,225

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k.............................................
C o tto n ...................... ...........................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u cts..............................................

1,337
470
700
3,119
6,316

1,269
170
0
163
4,417

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
4
20

0
0
0
15
90

-20
459
289
1,318
447

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore mining ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

-707
294
-533
-43
-120

844
117
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
199

0
13
0
0
0

0
67
0
0
0

18
0
8
23
4

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

771
-2,633
921
26
9,441

125
0
5
3
0

0
53
0
0
0

0
0
244
0
9

0
0
152
0
18

81
75
23
-8
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance............................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...................... .........................

2,866
3,711
21,195
11,038
9,707

457
0
20,976
10,318
9,382

0
80
0
0
0

4
0
2
0
0

3
0
4
0
0

73
-9
289
69
134

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

4,361
6,903
60
2,710
7,471

3,525
6,762
1,021
2,703
8,105

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
5

0
0
0
2
8

188
14
12
28
241

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s...............................................
Other food products.... .....................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

4,676
6,973
7,078
537
2,689

4,510
5,975
6,087
639
1,391

0
0
0
0
597

0
0
2
0
39

0
0
3
0
505

39
233
217
279
140

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel .......................... ....................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

-79
1,487
19,661
3,106
391

122
1,551
21,012
2,774
5

8
0
0
0
0

7
0
2
1
2

82
0
5
2
0

54
89
653
166
9

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers......... ......................... *.....................
Household furniture..................................................... .
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

1,969
6,430
15
6,753
3,456

0
379
0
5,706
257

0
5
0
680
2,388

232
1,031
0
4
109

2,334
4,861
0
83
104

265
358
3
356
78

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard....................................................................... .
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

2,741
254
1,958
4,138
2,275

2,389
106
1,949
2,901
880

0
0
0
0
0

67
1
0
2
5

255
2
0
3
10

180
61
14
92
158

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

1,792
475
1,323
562
-13

20
153
371
0
0

164
0
0
0
0

50
1
121
0
0

12
6
74
0
0

57
59
99
87
-14

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

5,695
7,580
919
14,896
2,668

4,175
7,068
123
13,503
2,587

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
178
577
51

0
0
266
344
59

212
169
116
42
178

See footnotes at end of table.




67

C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

58.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

1,237
2,070
-40
4,122
906

1,079
688
0
4,923
563

33
12
0
0
0

10
239
0
1
84

59
557
0
2
49

48
310
45
206
156

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

6,872
860
555
1,639
-392

1
0
414
205
4

0
0
0
0
0

1,895
186
144
643
1,180

2,686
545
154
374
328

134
29
31
116
463

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

839
2,699
-310
-1,194
73

0
8
20
0
0

2
64
0
0
13

78
1,657
14
1
0

99
543
5
0
0

26
194
-29
107
32

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

1,371
11,835
123
1,025
1,840

80
49
40
421
849

0
1,197
0
0
30

282
5,030
22
8
216

736
2,130
14
0
388

121
407
55
148
207

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and genera tors.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

3,594
2,789
4,533
6,427
2,293

298
138
66
0
0

683
1,606
4,202
3,774
1,641

1,743
0
0
167
336

171
0
0
62
41

232
173
194
342
51

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery.............................. ...........
Other nonelectrical machinery...... .............................. .
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

4,627
4,772
3,298
432
5,322

168
45
0
17
12

3,878
4,261
2,170
39
3,713

4
0
150
3
0

8
0
195
6
0

126
121
138
59
25

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.............................. .......................

1,141
4,864
3,723
1,654
5,952

199
485
29
24
4,572

610
2,078
2,318
992
1,005

0
389
350
16
50

0
671
289
1
160

5
298
98
115
380

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ........ ......................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

3,113
3,501
3,100
7,309
1,410

925
4,816
17
78
319

82
220
2,748
1,444
14

958
1
0
33
0

413
3
0
51
0

179
262
149
6
-1

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad equipm ent.........................................................

1,874
43,118
12,771
3,978
1,747

1,140
28,507
106
973
0

414
16,286
1,981
1,145
1,491

16
13
0
0
0

29
13
0
0
0

121
851
203
230
1

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transoortation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

357
4,882
2,683
1,690
917

1,313
1,630
33
275
486

.46
184
1,146
973
393

0
0
235
0
0

0
2,922
87
0
0

85
190
44
68
66

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s .................................... ...................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

3,567
322
2,104
3,623
2,188

1,072
524
2,255
3,396
1,342

1,682
1
0
323
443

4
3
1
1
22

7
1
2
2
79

2
31
188
169
159

See footnotes at end of table.




68

C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972-—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

5,593
4,896
12,301
3,504
7,173

2,485
4,158
6,673
1,026
5,759

403
0
686
25
81

249
4
730
50
20

495
8
771
74
40

248
0
238
31
9

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..... .............................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

388
411
0
17,784
14,550

290
196
0
12,879
12,220

0
0
0
2,167
0

4
0
0
90
14

0
0
0
182
27

3
0
0
0
0

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ......................

7,009
2,997
60,932
36,593
110,476

6,555
2,801
38,172
37,496
102,254

0
0
6,588
0
2,634

2
26
1,813
140
1,045

3
54
2,433
283
3,808

0
0
999
0
2

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

14,041
7,723
20,393
76,783
41,128

11,238
7,527
19,545
76,783
32,005

0
0
0
0
0

95
10
103
0
386

191
16
160
0
4,626

0
0
0
0
0

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s..................................
Advertising........................................................................

5,964
12,180
4,310
8,343
688

5,249
11,362
4,310
1,851
123

0
192
0
0
0

5
3
0
432
14

10
6
0
542
29

0
0
0
0
0

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s.....................................

14,398
14,697
2,061
6,941
23,305

5,350
13,779
1,672
7,360
21,676

0
0
0
0
0

2,346
141
0
3
0

2,167
178
0
6
0

0
0
-164
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

22,296
8,226
12,779
13,105
2,900

19,653
4,883
11,124
13,025
1,869

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
15
9

0
0
2
32
20

0
0
0
0
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terprises.......... ....................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
421
0
2,051
-5,062

0
300
0
1,987
6,550

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
2
11

0
0
0
4
23

0
0
0
0
4

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

-1,670
55,090
132,652
11,064
4,631
-7,716

2,163
0
0
-3,524
4,631
0

-3,902
0
0
0
0
0

-207
18,315
0
0
0
0

-1,116
23,248
0
0
0
0

204
0
0
0
0
-7,716

See footnotes at end of table.




69

C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

T o ta l....................................................................................

743

77,470

-76,727

253,107

101,686

151,421

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

15
-163
389
2,415
1,329

17
94
403
2,465
1,896

-2
-257
-14
-50
-567

72
4
22
-794
14

2
2
22
-815
-178

70
2
0
21
192

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r..............

-1,047
18
-517
-66
-316

105
19
102
17
15

-1,152
-2
-619
-83
-331

-522
79
-24
0
-7

-530
16
-24
0
-7

7
63
0
0
0

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

495
-2,762
-89
-16
6

496
1
90
79
6

-1
-2,763
-179
-96
0

69
0
585
47
9,409

47
0
60
-2
2,067

22
0
525
49
7,342

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

233
11
-928
0
-225

314
11
569
187
339

-81
0
-1,496
-187
-564

2,095
3,629
853
651
415

2,077
3,629
28
191
11

18
0
825
461
404

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

545
-33
. -991
-94
-881

619
11
9
39
33

-75
-44
-1,000
-133
-913

104
160
19
71
-7

39
4
1
1
1

65
156
18
70
-9

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

70
542
767
-464
-65

85
971
839
432
33

-15
-428
-71
-895
-98

56
222
1
83
82

2
32
0
25
12

55
190
1
58
69

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Lo gging..............................................................................

-365
-153
-2,225
-31
375

123
26
235
103
407

-488
-178
-2,460
-134
-32

14
0
214
194
1

8
0
130
144
0

5
0
84
50
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

-973
-624
-1
-183
-100

336
106
3
33
28

-1,310
-730
-4
-216
-128

111
421
13
107
620

16
81
13
64
130

95
339
0
42
491

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

-828
26
-8
107
35

957
33
4
276
91

-1,785
-6
-12
-169
-56

678
58
3
1,033
1,187

141
19
1
38
347

537
40
2
996
839

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

556
149
231
454
-14

1,569
329
400
576
188

-1,013
-181
-170
-122
-202

933
107
427
21
15

696
16
330
20
15

236
91
97
1
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s ......................................................

270
121
67
-2,161
-337

539
167
69
712
91

-269
-46
-2
-2,873
-428

1,039
222
169
2,592
129

153
48
20
898
70

886
174
149
1,694
60

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

See footnotes at end of table.




70

C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

-257
21
-86
-1,028
-129

153
341
71
36
206

-410
-321
-157
-1,064
-336

266
243
1
18
184

143
70
1
8
36

123
173
0
9
148

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p roducts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

-82
-34
-236
-31
-2,813

12
40
36
167
624

-94
-74
-271
-197
-3,437

2,237
133
47
331
445

194
12
11
53
137

2,043
121
36
278
308

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p roducts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

115
-166
-346
-1,264
10

175
306
241
268
26

-60
-472
-587
-1,533
-16

519
399
26
-38
18

90
163
23
-38
8

429
236
3
0
10

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

-1
243
-92
413
-100

68
323
81
474
201

-68
-80
-173
-61
-301

153
2,779
84
36
249

24
586
71
9
73

129
2,193
12
27
176

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

-166
461
14
1,791
70

411
710
470
1,968
198

-577
-248
-456
-177
-128

633
411
58
291
154

225
325
14
139
84

408
86
44
152
71

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

285
264
343
72
977

582
1,139
876
79
1,525

-297
-875
-534
-7
-548

159
80
302
237
595

118
64
220
58
506

41
16
82
179
89

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household appliances .....................................................

-51
451
94
193
-289

135
528
410
418
216

-186
-77
-316
-224
-505

378
492
546
312
73

189
80
310
236
14

188
412
237
76
59

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

65
-1,924
-16
316
436

237
208
81
604
1,008

-172
-2,132
-97
-288
-572

490
124
204
5,380
642

97
70
203
5,227
621

393
53
1
153
21

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor vehicles ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad e q uipm e nt.........................................................

-19
-4,336
2,483
18
148

301
4,123
3,045
189
174

-321
-8,459
-562
-171
-26

173
1,783
7,999
1,611
107

124
640
7,994
1,594
3

49
1,143
4
17
104

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt...............................

-1,105
-67
454
143
-151

7
79
573
209
74

-1,112
-146
-119
-66
-225

19
22
684
231
123

1
3
496
105
100

18
18
188
126
23

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

192
-275
-338
-448
-309

575
14
226
257
204

-383
-289
-564
-705
-513

609
37
-2
181
452

278
29
-22
5
102

331
8
19
176
349

See footnotes at end of table.




71

C-1. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1972— Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Imports

Exports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

(11.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

1,085
1
887
1,690
128

1,142
1
887
1,838
1,075

-57
0
0
-148
-947

628
725
2,315
607
1,135

320
39
1,138
510
822

308
687
1,178
97
313

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

56
215
0
389
-29

56
215
0
389
38

0
0
0
0
-67

36
0
0
2,076
2,318

16
0
0
852
505

20
0
0
1,224
1,813

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

-237
11
6,973
0
118

110
11
3,980
0
118

-347
0
2,993
0
0

687
104
3,955
-1,326
615

79
55
1,354
366
8

607
49
2,601
-1,692
606

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

8
11
71
0
2,035

8
11
236
0
2,035

0
0
-165
0
0

2,509
159
513
0
2,076

752
-20
-3
0
442

1,758
179
516
0
1,634

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging p lace s..............................................
Personal and repair se rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

4
0
0
399
31

4
0
0
401
40

0
0
0
-2
-10

697
618
0
5,119
492

605
91
0
2,995
17

92
526
0
2,124
474

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

400
0
426
0
0

400
0
438
0
0

0
0
-12
0
0

4,136
600
128
-429
1,629

645
127
96
47
203

3,491
472
31
-476
1,426

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

0
0
0
23
21

0
0
0
53
21

o
0
0
-30
0

2,643
3,343
1,652
10
980

319
92
1,659
1
422

2,324
3,252
-7
9
558

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terprises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
118
0
0
-15,162

0
118
0
0
681

0
0
0
0
-15,843

0
3
0
58
3,508

0
3
0
17
3,496

0
0
0
42
12

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

-210
10
0
14,790
0
0

919
10
0
18,841
0
0

-1,130
0
0
-4,050
0
0

1,398
13,517
132,652
-202
0
0

360
2,104
49,305
-202
0
0

1,038
11,413
83,347
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




72

/

0 2 . Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

T o ta l....................................................................................

1,369,770

864,357

101,674

41,508

57,885

13,302

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

1,276
468
704
4,459
7,144

1,218
188
0
175
5,005

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
3
15

0
0
0
12
75

-32
332
93
2,138
634

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore mining ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

-297
302
-446
-10
-39

725
131
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
193

0
9
0
0
0

0
51
0
0
0

18
0
3
-4
4

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

586
-6,130
1,166
23
9,341

68
0
7
1
0

0
129
0
0
0

0
0
333
0
7

0
0
191
0
19

7
67
50
-6
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

2,320
3,218
19,984
11,977
10,963

567
0
19,135
11,149
10,026

0
72
0
0
0

16
0
1
0
0

7
0
4
0
0

39
-35
170
49
284

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

5,455
6,468
-2
2,995
8,060

4,398
6,278
953
3,089
8,952

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
3

0
0
0
2
6

171
19
21
34
145

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

5,353
6,729
7,649
858
3,145

5,077
5,447
6,604
574
1,649

0
0
0
0
861

0
0
2
0
35

0
0
4
0
448

122
223
35
230
121

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

59
1,716
21,008
3,348
472

147
1,663
23,186
3,015
3

8
0
0
0
0

4
0
2
1
2

31
0
6
2
0

15
50
216
86
15

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

2,042
7,054
4
6,880
3,686

0
376
0
6,060
336

0
7
0
676
2,670

225
1,139
0
4
87

2,318
5,189
0
84
103

248
340
-5
102
79

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

3,462
241
2,000
4,866
2,383

2,844
105
1,994
3,249
914

0
0
0
0
0

50
1
0
1
4

211
2
0
3
11

289
17
19
78
54

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

1,578
505
1,441
648
229

166
0
0
0
0

83
1
166
0
0

10
4
69
0
0

27
96
47
177
22

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

7,317
8,346
894
17,509
2,984

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
158
610
61

0
0
245
371
55

135
82
100
285
174

19
103
454
0
0'
5,188
7,797
136
15,672
2,969

See footnotes at end of table.




73

C-2. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le ather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

1,265
2,364
7
3,874
1,161

1,238
828
0
5,162
710

33
12
0
0
0

9
208
0
1
69

63
555
0
2
59

46
405
23
60
53

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

6,505
778
540
1,904
-810

1
0
399
191
4

0
0
0
0
0

1,867
146
143
740
1,456

2,709
514
152
483
233

107
24
29
151
47

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p roducts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

854
2,516
-107
-926
170

0
20
14
0
0

2
82
0
0
11

49
1,613
26
1
0

65
593
5
0
0

37
122
176
44
137

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

1,349
12,057
54
1,025
1,960

188
37
41
453
1,040

0
1,622
0
0
42

220
5,110
23
6
153

704
2,042
9
0
377

40
465
64
102
171

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and ge nerators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

3,587
3,124
5,970
7,909
2,390

304
166
77
0
0

725
1,253
5,643
4,592
1,728

1,670
0
0
365
209

131
0
0
58
8

464
86
123
65
97

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

5,368
4,497
4,378
469
11,515

222
86
0
18
26

4,626
3,576
2,888
33
8,072

4
0
191
2
0

10
0
179
6
0

215
55
215
57
362

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines............ .................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

1,730
5,165
4,277
2,130
6,871

403
407
27
26
5,227

963
2,238
2,909
1,312
1,220

0
311
263
17
45

0
696
257
0
169

5
87
77
108
273

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

2,826
4,848
3,755
9,316
2,678

762
6,993
20
115
1,131

109
344
3,413
1,995
45

837
1
0
31
0

385
4
0
57
0

82
281
79
29
183

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad equipm ent.........................................................

3,166
59,091
12,067
4,826
1,818

1,458
36,868
588
992
0

1,130
22,408
1,578
1,222
1,532

13
17
0
0
0

30
12
0
0
0

119
793
58
85
15

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

423
3,626
3,928
2,291
1,542

922
1,303
34
343
726

29
127
1,811
1,245
817

0
0
255
0
0

0
2,088
92
0
0

43
33
135
65
55

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

4,865
287
2,379
3,996
2,369

1,189
684
2,770
3,875
1,432

2,773
1
0
280
416

3
2
1
1
19

9
1
2
2
86

13
22
245
129
102

See footnotes at end of table.




74

C-2. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation................. ............................................

5,435
4,669
12,920
4,026
8,954

2,274
4,200
6,884
979
7,394

424
0
871
26
107

227
3
486
54
18

455
8
717
68
43

319
0
357
41
13

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and private................................

343
567
0
27,065
19,287

232
298
0
19,120
15,962

0
0
0
3,700
0

4
0
0
86
10

0
0
0
244
27

4
0
0
0
0

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ......................

6,556
3,000
66,356
42,709
132,593

6,544
3,041
43,042
44,517
124,963

0
0
7,973
0
3,358

0
18
1,233
106
737

2
53
1,348
298
3,168

0
0
1,445
0
3

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

20,172
8,379
23,710
99,043
50,185

15,085
8,045
22,835
99,043
37,801

0
0
0
0
0

83
13
122
0
388

235
18
181
0
6,723

0
0
0
0
0

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business se rv ic e s ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

7,059
13,017
3,557
10,620
860

6,078
11,988
3,557
2,361
142

0
203
0
0
0

4
2
0
543
11

11
7
0
566
31

0
0
0
0
0

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

17,108
17,618
2,626
9,227
29,294

6,238
16,580
1,821
9,514
27,112

0
0
0
0
0

2,071
175
0
3
0

2,914
184
0
10
0

0
0
70
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

30,127
11,083
13,544
13,232
3,138

26,233
6,995
11,677
13,121
1,952

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
13
6

0
0
3
37
20

0
0
0
0
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
355
0
2,702
-5,565

0
188
0
2,624
5,400

0
0
0
0
3

0
0
0
1
6

0
0
0
4
18

0
0
0
0
4

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

-1,672
46,022
143,982
15,711
3,826
-4,067

2,686
0
0
-5,162
3,826
0

-4,629
0
0
0
0
0

-145
16,108
0
0
0
0

-359
18,470
0
0
0
0

277
0
0
0
0
-4,067

See footnotes at end of table.




75

C -2. G ross rsationaS produ et and major components by industry, 1977—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State arid
local
government

T o ta l....................................................................................

22,006

112,877

-90,871

269,038

100,369

168,669

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k .............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

6
-58
589
3,800
1,493

11
273
592
3,853
2,243

-4
-331
-3
-53
-750

84
7
22
-1,670
-78

3
4
22
-1,696
-312

81
3
0
26
234

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c op per..............

-600
23
-431
-6
-231

249
24
155
9
42

-849
-2
-586
-15
-273

-439
87
-18
0
-4

-445
15
-18
0
-4

6
71
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

443
-6,361
-52
-10
0

458
10
180
76
0

-15
-6,370
-231
-86
0

69
34
636
38
9,315

52
34
158
-1
2,127

17
0
478
39
7,188

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

348
64
-125
-45
153

415
64
1,019
128
618

-67
0
-1,144
-173
-465

1,343
3,118
799
823
500

1,331
3,118
32
214
14

11
0
768
609
486

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages ..........................................................

772
-23
-993
-212
-1,016

839
12
38
57
60

-66
-35
-1,031
-269
-1,075

114
195
17
82
-31

36
4
1
1
2

78
191
17
81
-32

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings ...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills..........................................................

79
842
1,003
-42
-37

108
1,297
1,090
642
80

-29
-455
-87
-684
-117

76
216
1
95
69

2
38
0
22
13

74
178
0
73
56

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
hosiery and knit qoods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

-169
3
-2,625
62
451

163
47
470
211
486

-332
-44
-3,095
-150
-36

22
0
222
182
1

17
0
158
117
0

5
0
64
66
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing mills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

-849
-407
-1
-185
-87

411
209
2
89
59

-1,261
-616
-3
-274
-146

101
410
9
139
499

27
130
9
77
98

74
280
0
61
401

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

-771
49
-16
200
29

1,196
55
4
347
100

-1,966
-7
-20
-147
-71

838
67
4
1,335
1,372

193
18
1
55
348

645
49
3
1,280
1,024

46.
47.
48.
43.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical Droducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

274
190
374
453
189

1,403
487
552
586
332

-1,129
-297
-178
-134
-143

998
111
330
19
18

720
17
235
18
18

278
94
95
1
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations...................................
Paints and allied products..............................................
Petroleum refining and related products......................
Tires and inner tu b e s ......................................................

580
186
95
-1,460
-373

1,036
254
100
554
169

-456
-68
-5
-2,014
-542

1,414
282
160
2,030
98

177
58
33
937
56

1,238
224
127
1,093
42

See footnotes at end of table.




76

C-2. Gross national! product and major components by industry, 1977—Gontinued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s..................................................................................

-446
105
-16
-1,373
24

245
546
99
73
359

-691
-441
-115
-1,446
-335

321
251
0
21
247

143
78
0
8
49

178
173
0
13
198

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p roducts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

-39
-41
-231
43
-2,904

33
42
46
236
656

-72
-83
-277
-193
-3,560

1,860
135
48
296
353

330
17
14
77
128

1,530
118
34
219
225

66.
87.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metais and products......................
Metai containers...............................................................

157
-292
-357
-969
5

242
329
277
208
33

-85
-622
-633
-1,178
-28

544
378
28
-1
18

71
159
24
-2
6

473
218
5
0
11

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

61
457
-162
420
-48

98
552
105
464
308

-37
-96
-268
-44
-356

135
2,324
79
44
225

24
705
67
9
71

111
1,619
12
35
154

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal products ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

-223
1,293
46
2,572
187

575
1,564
719
2,959
299

-798
-271
-673
-387
-112

516
325
81
257
160

177
288
17
124
104

339
37
65
133
56

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral eq uipm ent...........................

133
716
516
108
2,022

610
1,434
1,356
118
3,211

-477
-718
-840
-9
-1,189

158
64
389
245
1,033

122
41
282
45
903

35
24
107
200
130

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission e q uipm e nt....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

-126
855
269
357
-134

199
950
540
608
468

-325
-95
-271
-251
-602

485
571
474
308
71

180
103
275
243
13

305
468
199
65
58

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

234
-2,925
71
91
313

365
490
147
1,118
2,564

-131
-3,414
-76
-1,027
-2,251

416
148
172
6,997
1,006

119
109
171
6,766
958

297
39
1
231
49

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad eq uipm e nt.........................................................

181

597

-416

235

183

52

-3 ,3 4 4

6,151

-9 ,4 9 5

2,336

635

1,701

3,719
205
130

4,160
298
162

-441
-93
-32

6,125
2,322
141

6,118
2,289
3

7
33
138

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instruments ....................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment ...............................

-578
59
818
340
-249

25
91
987
462
178

-603
-32
-169
-122
-427

8
15
783
299
193

1
2
532
143
171

7
13
250
156
22

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s .......................... ..............................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go ods......................
Other manufactured products........................................

221
-454
-653
-526
-111

905
125
303
312
331

-684
-579
-957
-838
-441

658
30
14
236
425

261
24
-7
5
103

396
6
21
230
322

See footnotes at end of table.




77

C-2. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1977—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
*

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

1,301
12
1,276
2,498
219

1,353
12
1,276
2,280
1,518

-52
0
0
217
-1,299

434
446
2,329
361
1,160

247
43
948
272
847

186
403
1,381
89
313

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

69
270
0
635
-145

69
270
0
635
45

0
0
0
0
-190

33
0
0
3,279
3,434

14
0
0
879
531

19
0
0
2,401
2,902

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

-517
13
7,613
0
42

89
13
5,581
0
42

-605
0
2,032
0
0

526
-126
3,702
-2,212
322

55
50
1,083
267
43

471
-176
2,619
-2,480
279

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

12
15
-8
0
3,026

12
15
345
0
3,026

0
0
-354
0
0

4,757
288
579
0
2,248

1,161
-33
-21
0
609

3,596
321
601
0
1,638

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s .........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

6
1
0
537
39

6
1
0
540
52

0
0
0
-3
-14

960
817
0
6,613
638

626
122
0
3,380
16

334
695
0
3,233
622

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile repair ............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists' s e rv ic e s .....................................

622
0
589
0
0

622
0
615
0
0

0
0
-26
0
0

5,263
679
146
-299
2,183

797
97
104
453
221

4,466
583
42
-753
1,961

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

0
0
0
54
27

0
0
0
77
27

0
0
0
-24
0

3,895
4,089
1,863
8
1,132

724
173
1,868
0
439

3,171
3,916
-5
8
693

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
163
0
0
-13,774

0
163
0
0
696

0
0
0
0
-14,470

0
3
0
73
2,778

0
3
0
18
2,769

0
0
0
54
9

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

-112
0
0
21,438
0
0

1,213
0
0
27,992
0
0

-1,325
0
0
-6,555
0
0

610
11,444
143,982
-565
0
0

214
2,352
47,793
-565
0
0

396
9,092
96,190
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




78

C-3. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

T o ta l....................................................................................

2,126,746

1,349,086

162,499

45,600

65,702

11,900

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and liv e s to c k .............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

1,542
1,062
902
10,231
9,332

1,475
289
0
207
6,386

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
3
20

0
0
0
12
75

-28
297
83
1,913
567

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

-632
416
-148
21
-14

763
222
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
308

0
13
0
0
0

0
52
0
0
0

16
0
2
-4
3

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

1,266
-6,723
1,817
128
9,074

138
0
11
2
0

0
207
0
0
0

0
0
352
0
8

0
0
211
0
17

6
60
45
-6
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen foods ...............................................

4,557
5,847
24,911
13,024
15,027

865
0
22,217
12,275
13,615

0
113
0
0
0

20
0
2
0
0

8
0
4
0
0

35
-32
152
44
254

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

7,052
5,908
85
3,960
14,161

4,951
5,740
928
4,249
15,004

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
4

0
0
0
2
6

153
17
19
30
129

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco manufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

9,372
10,796
8,136
829
5,552

8,879
7,694
6,817
677
2,926

0
0
0
0
1,600

0
0
2
0
46

0
0
4
0
542

110
200
31
206
108

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

269
2,918
23,773
4,895
809

212
2,849
28,354
4,283
5

13
0
0
0
0

4
0
3
1
2

30
0
6
2
0

13
45
193
77
13

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

2,427
9,014
12
8,520
5,157

0
744
0
7,353
506

0
11
0
930
3,698

191
1,039
0
4
114

2,258
6,105
0
104
127

222
304
-4
92
70

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

8,171
375
2,021
7,513
2,928

5,135
147
2,021
5,733
1,358

0
0
0
0
0

52
1
0
2
5

236
2
0
3
10

259
15
17
70
48

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

2,108
1,353
3,137
869
612

27
187
797
0
0

265
0
0
0
0

103
1
212
0
0

10
4
96
0
0

24
86
42
158
19

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s.......................................................

18,928
12,218
1,098
18,467
1,669

14,310
11,091
202
15,328
2,602

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
172
656
71

0
0
321
377
55

121
73
89
255
156

See footnotes at end of table.




79

C-3. G ross natsonaS p ro d u c t and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

1,082
5,393
87
2,612
1,801

1,346
2,227
0
5,083
899

53
20
0
0
0

12
226
0
1
96

66
654
0
2
58

41
363
20
54
48

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related products..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

7,111
622
371
2,635
-763

2
0
406
332
6

0
0
0
0
0

1,975
62
123
729
1,149

2,867
435
164
530
267

96
21
26
135
42

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings ...........................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts......................
Metal containers...............................................................

1,166
2,725
338
-1,524
181

0
28
15
0
0

4
130
0
0
17

57
1,627
21
1
0

75
752
6
0
0

33
109
158
40
123

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated {structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

1,609
15,262
54
1,271
2,696

213
56
61
592
1,493

0
2,739
0
0
66

210
5,377
28
9
181

872
2,474
11
0
383

36
416
57
91
153

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and genera tors.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

5,190
6,267
7,190
12,769
3,587

374
426
134
0
0

1,398
1,250
6,155
5,079
2,533

1,555
0
0
462
252

179
0
0
57
14

415
77
110
58
87

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral eq uipm ent...........................

7,858
5,600
7,112
651
52,550

334
129
0
34
6,182

6,709
3,757
3,410
52
32,431

5
0
231
2
0

9
0
208
6
0

193
49
192
51
324

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission e q uipm e nt....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household appliances.....................................................

4,245
11,145
6,444
3,601
11,127

1,344
856
49
40
8,319

2,286
5,087
3,810
1,727
1,951

0
395
315
16
56

0
733
347
1
194

5
78
69
97
244

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

3,811
12,342
9,295
25,271
4,684

988
15,983
388
338
2,956

174
545
6,893
5,178
71

903
2
0
39
0

484
4
0
74
0

74
252
71
26
164

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad equipm e nt.........................................................

5,986
61,490
21,843
7,434
1,583

2,761
40,607
936
1,525
0

1,429
19,259
1,768
1,200
1,320

16
19
0
0
0

30
13
0
0
0

107
710
52
76
13

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts .................... ..............
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum en ts....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

355
4,365
5,343
4,545
3,746

1,160
1,679
53
776
1,566

46
202
2,140
2,363
1,829

0
0
251
0
0

0
2,275
103
0
0

39
30
121
58
49

106.
107.
108.
109
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s.....................
Other manufactured products.......................................

10,856
34
2,686
5,585
3,326

2,676
869
3,614
4,982
1,682

4,800
2
0
447
514

4
3
1
1
22

8
1
2
2
88

12
20
219
116
91

See footnotes at end of table.




80

0 3 . Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

6,975
4,540
18,640
5,416
17,936

3,189
4,080
9,033
1,106
14,422

448
0
1,450
41
170

248
4
501
60
20

479
8
771
67
41

286
0
319
36
12

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation services ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and te le visio n ..............
Electric utilities, public and private................................

438
1,054
0
71,270
30,721

222
443
0
48,795
27,200

0
0
0
11,473
0

4
0
0
107
12

0
0
0
224
25

3
0
0
0
0

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

4,302
3,913
100,498
50,839
201,459

4,500
3,911
63,990
52,467
191,748

0
0
13,352
0
5,090

0
23
1,246
132
798

2
49
1,502
274
3,385

0
0
1,293
0
3

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

38,150
20,386
41,418
179,783
76,602

33,308
20,026
40,139
179,783
58,390

0
0
0
0
0

104
15
141
0
270

216
17
178
0
9,344

0
0
0
0
0

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business se rv ic e s..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

13,102
14,235
4,040
19,857
1,020

11,525
12,956
4,040
5,944
269

0
324
0
0
0

5
3
0
877
13

10
6
0
560
28

0
0
0
0
0

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

23,279
24,393
3,594
20,016
51,661

10,813
23,248
2,308
19,952
48,672

0
0
0
0
0

2,350
200
0
4
0

3,061
181
0
9
0

0
0
63
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

53,287
22,978
18,355
22,061
3,598

48,053
17,849
16,459
21,857
2,178

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
17
8

0
0
3
34
19

0
0
0
0
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable im p o rts .................................................

0
656
0
3,421
-2,771

0
280
0
3,329
7,819

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
2
8

0
0
0
4
17

0
0
0
0
3

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

-1,063
53,403
171,499
51,386
2,653
-3,639

4,984
0
0
-8,931
2,653
0

-7,838
0
0
0
0
0

-39
18,928
0
0
0
0

-526
20,590
0
0
0
0

247
0
0
0
0
-3,639

See footnotes at end of table.




81

C-3. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

T o ta l....................................................................................

148,499

267,898

-119,399

343,461

156,961

186,500

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

12
469
798
11,449
2,836

14
642
799
11,483
3,515

-2
-172
-2
-34
-679

84
7
22
-3,354
-553

3
4
22
-3,377
-769

81
2
0
24
217

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r..............

-667
40
-110
25
-316

428
42
541
30
106

-1,095
-2
-651
-6
-421

-744
90
-41
0
-10

-751
27
-41
0
-10

6
62
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except drillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

1,011
-7,023
360
98
0

1,037
24
597
207
0

-26
-7,048
-237
-108
0

111
34
839
34
9,049

96
34
251
-3
2,966

15
0
587
36
6,083

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

587
99
1,749
-89
664

641
99
2,631
90
1,114

-53
0
-881
-179
-450

3,041
5,666
787
793
494

3,025
5,666
36
213
14

16
0
751
580
480

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill p roducts...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

1,836
-34
-879
-393
-955

1,887
17
86
149
227

-51
-51
-965
-542
-1,182

113
186
17
71
-27

43
4
0
1
3

71
182
17
70
-30

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

308
2,691
1,281
-188
273

368
2,900
1,356
1,205
383

-60
-209
-75
-1,393
-110

76
210
0
134
58

2
35
0
49
18

74
176
0
85
40

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill p roducts...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

-28
24
-5,128
218
789

423
90
897
423
798

-451
-66
-6,024
-205
-9

24
0
344
314
1

19
0
255
240
0

5
0
89
73
1

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

-360
310
2
-115
147

720
869
7
212
265

-1,080
-559
-5
-327
-118

115
501
15
153
495

39
207
15
91
131

76
294
0
61
365

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

1,647
130
-21
565
63

3,184
136
2
709
171

-1,537
-7
-23
-143
-109

842
80
5
1,141
1,444

229
28
2
84
505

613
52
2
1,056
939

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

213
963
1,412
669
550

1,977
1,401
1,577
1,062
796

-1,764
-438
-165
-393
-246

1,465
111
578
42
42

1,193
24
481
41
42

273
87
97
1
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

2,439
746
141
-710
-1,361

2,933
830
147
830
269

-494
-84
-6
-1,540
-1,630

2,058
307
173
2,561
146

272
87
50
1,411
95

1,786
220
123
1,150
51

See footnotes at end of table.




82

0 3 . Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

-959
1,594
66
-2,561
403

439
2,101
126
197
736

-1,397
-507
-60
-2,758
-332

522
311
1
33
299

293
136
1
14
81

230
174
0
20
218

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related products..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

-28
-27
-406
573
-2,621

105
35
106
733
771

-133
-62
-512
-160
-3,392

2,198
131
60
336
394

512
23
21
118
232

1,686
108
38
218
162

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

437
-382
81
-1,515
17

537
257
759
236
45

-99
-639
-678
-1,751
-28

560
461
58
-50
24

152
235
54
-50
14

407
226
4
0
9

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

139
1,367
-222
558
175

185
1,486
219
609
582

-46
-119
-442
-51
-406

138
2,834
120
22
244

37
1,149
109
14
106

101
1,685
11
8
138

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

574
3,961
699
6,722
491

1,517
4,725
1,501
7,227
748

-943
-764
-802
-504
-257

697
553
93
391
211

289
519
29
255
154

407
34
64
136
57

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

380
1,580
2,455
251
11,503

1,018
2,382
3,360
266
14,174

-639
-802
-906
-15
-2,671

230
85
616
254
2,110

198
66
508
83
1,998

32
20
108
171
112

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

131
3,397
1,147
1,212
284

525
3,537
1,553
1,530
984

-394
-140
-406
-318
-699

479
600
707
509
79

209
178
528
450
20

270
423
179
60
59

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

708
-4,611
892
2,235
-85

801
799
975
3,803
9,100

-93
-5,410
-83
-1,568
-9,185

481
168
1,051
17,381
1,579

178
135
1,050
17,147
1,525

303
33
1
234
54

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft................................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad e q uipm e nt.........................................................

1,279
-1,678
7,932
322
118

1,844
5,956
9,660
699
196

-564
-7,634
-1,728
-377
-79

365
2,560
11,156
4,312
133

307
852
11,145
4,262
5

58
1,707
11
50
128

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

-902
164
1,445
965
5

49
205
1,613
1,122
498

-952
-41
-168
-157
-493

13
14
1,231
383
297

3
3
963
193
275

10
11
268
190
22

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

2,493
-922
-1,190
-172
510

3,451
379
583
800
942

-958
-1,301
-1,773
-972
-433

862
60
40
209
420

456
54
21
10
146

406
6
19
198
274

See footnotes at end of table.




83

C-3. Gross national! product and major components by industry, 1995 low alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation.................................................. ......
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

1,682
28
3,311
3,392
1,406

1,802
28
3,311
3,254
3,511

-120
0
0
138
-2,105

644
421
3,255
713
1,864

449
79
1,798
618
1,569

195
342
1,457
95
295

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation ....................................................
Transportation services ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

157
611
0
4,093
-126

157
611
0
4,093
103

0
0
0
0
-229

51
0
0
6,578
3,611

30
0
0
3,410
978

21
0
0
3,168
2,633

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

-715
31
14,706
0
96

201
31
10,312
0
96

-916
0
4,395
0
0

515
-101
4,409
-2,034
340

95
110
1,787
438
-25

419
-211
2,622
-2,472
365

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

28
35
375
0
6,284

28
35
783
0
6,284

0
0
-408
0
0

4,494
293
585
0
2,313

1,163
-31
-1
0
781

3,331
324
586
0
1,532

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s .........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s ..................................
Advertising........................................................................

12
1
0
1,178
107

12
1
0
1,181
119

0
0
0
-3
-12

1,549
946
0
11,297
603

1,132
189
0
8,139
36

417
757
0
3,158
567

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile repair ............................................................
Motion, p ic tu re s................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services .....................................

1,408
0
971
0
0

1,408
0
1,002
0
0

0
0
-31
0
0

5,647
764
252
52
2,989

1,297
171
214
667
508

4,349
592
38
-615
2,481

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

0
0
1
145
61

0
0
1
175
61

0
0
0
-31
0

5,234
5,129
1,892
9
1,332

1,219
176
1,876
2
603

4,015
4,953
16
7
729

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit C orp ora tion......................................
Other Federal en terprises..............................................
Local government passenger transit ............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
370
0
0
-14,100

0
370
0
0
1,287

0
0
0
0
-15,386

0
6
0
87
3,477

0
6
0
34
3,469

0
0
0
53
8

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

1,543
0
0
61,187
0
0

2,545
0
0
72,973
0
0

-1,002
0
0
-11,786
C
0

565
13,885
171,499
-870
0
0

236
3,984
60,059
-870
0
0

329
9,901
111,440
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




84

G-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

T o ta l....................................................................................

2,166,782

1,412,389

180,099

71,100

74,200

11,800

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

1,649
872
874
10,133
9,460

1,580
297
0
222
6,802

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
5
29

0
0
0
14
88

-28
294
82
1,897
563

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

-709
433
-164
18
-29

808
228
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
342

0
18
0
0
0

0
60
0
0
0

16
0
2
-4
3

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

1,220
-7,014
1,883
103
8,857

148
0
11
2
0

0
229
0
0
0

0
0
526
0
11

0
0
241
0
20

6
59
45
-5
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

4,117
5,003
25,309
13,806
15,481

926
0
23,802
13,151
14,586

0
126
0
0
0

30
0
2
0
0

9
0
5
0
0

35
-31
151
44
252

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

7,128
6,300
72
4,014
14,538

5,304
6,149
994
4,552
16,074

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
2
5

0
0
0
2
7

151
16
19
30
128

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings ...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

9,968
11,165
8,348
753
5,878

9,512
8,243
7,102
725
3,120

0
0
0
0
1,694

0
0
3
0
64

0
0
5
0
626

109
198
31
205
107

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

242
3,112
23,948
4,956
783

225
3,077
30,616
4,484
5

14
0
0
0
0

6
0
4
2
3

34
0
7
2
0

13
45
192
77
13

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

2,296
9,782
9
8,935
5,598

0
793
0
7,840
539

0
12
0
1,012
4,106

277
1,509
0
6
167

2,562
6,849
0
115
141

220
302
-4
91
70

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

7,558
373
2,095
7,832
2,892

5,379
154
2,105
6,114
1,415

0
0
0
0
0

76
2
0
2
7

264
3
0
4
12

256
15
17
69
48

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inoraanic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

1,893
1,266
3,116
796
557

28
195
847
0
0

295
0
0
0
0

160
2
320
0
0

12
5
108
0
0

24
85
42
157
19

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drucis ................................................ .................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

19,235
12,615
1,226
18,854
1,587

14,908
11,557
210
16,520
2,805

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
270
991
108

0
0
353
434
63

120
73
89
253
154

See footnotes at end of table.




85

C-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

1,094
5,256
70
2,623
1,728

1,445
2,367
0
5,488
956

58
22
0
0
0

17
328
0
1
134

76
728
0
2
66

41
359
20
53
47

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

8,378
686
390
3,051
-1,706

2
0
432
344
6

0
0
0
0
0

2,920
94
187
1,169
1,771

3,267
496
185
599
304

95
21
25
134
41

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts......................
Metal containers...............................................................

1,164
3,210
11
-1,594
166

0
30
16
0
0

4
144
0
0
19

86
2,491
34
1
0

85
827
7
0
0

33
108
156
39
122

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

1,786
18,366
-6
1,270
2,715

229
60
63
632
1,585

0
2,375
0
0
74

312
8,743
42
12
260

961
2,777
13
0
438

36
412
57
90
152

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts....................................
Engines, turbines, and ge nerators.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

5,755
6,166
7,270
13,115
3,945

393
460
143
0
0

1,285
1,388
6,833
5,639
2,812

2,895
0
0
715
489

197
0
0
65
16

412
77
109
58
86

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

8,272
5,577
7,051
644
53,149

356
138
0
37
6,591

7,449
4,171
3,786
58
36,007

7
0
350
3
0

10
0
238
6
0

191
48
191
51
321

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office eq u ip m e n t.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission eq u ip m e n t....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household appliances .....................................................

4,371
11,414
6,740
3,546
11,243

1,433
918
51
42
8,685

2,538
5,381
4,230
1,918
2,003

0
579
462
25
81

0
835
380
1
219

5
77
69
96
242

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

4,339
12,732
9,855
23,129
4,584

1,042
17,867
413
362
3,165

194
596
7,653
5,749
78

1,388
2
0
57
0

533
4
0
81
0

73
249
70
26
163

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. Aircraft ...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad eq uipm e nt.........................................................

5,994
69,149
19,610
6,929
1,691

2,956
49,162
1,009
1,645
0

1,587
24,714
1,963
1,332
1,465

23
29
0
0
0

34
14
0
0
0

106
704
51
75
13

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum en ts....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

379
5,298
5,467
4,726
3,791

1,251
1,810
56
822
1,689

51
224
2,377
2,623
2,031

0
1
381
0
0

0
3,080
117
0
0

38
30
120
57
48

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and s u p p lie s .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

10,934
-4
2,746
5,601
3,263

2,815
933
3,894
5,237
1,778

5,330
2
0
496
571

6
5
1
1
32

9
2
2
2
100

12
19
218
115
90

See footnotes at end of table.




86

C-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

7,064
4,719
18,897
5,398
17,986

3,394
4,257
9,611
1,166
15,731

493
0
1,340
45
189

388
5
795
92
29

543
9
877
77
48

283
0
316
36
12

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

450
1,056
0
73,235
31,765

239
463
0
50,901
28,400

0
0
0
12,072
0

7
0
0
150
17

0
0
0
259
28

3
0
0
0
0

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

4,224
4,077
103,468
54,527
212,899

4,700
4,085
66,349
56,209
201,659

0
0
13,590
0
5,651

1
32
1,954
184
1,197

2
57
1,679
316
3,937

0
0
1,282
0
3

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

39,093
20,956
42,495
181,690
77,299

34,216
20,571
41,458
181,690
59,023

0
0
0
0
0

145
23
210
0
386

249
19
204
0
9,727

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair se rv ic e s .........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
Advertising........................................................................

13,135
14,661
4,150
19,481
1,042

11,711
13,345
4,150
6,147
276

0
359
0
0
0

7
3
0
1,347
18

12
7
0
640
33

0
0
0
0
0

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion pictures ................................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ se rv ic e s .....................................

25,074
24,856
3,582
20,445
52,994

11,107
23,584
2,371
20,495
49,999

0
0
0
0
0

3,427
306
0
5
0

3,564
207
0
10
0

0
0
62
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

54,553
23,611
18,545
22,650
3,635

49,362
18,335
16,907
22,453
2,273

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
23
11

0
0
3
39
22

0
0
0
0
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
656
0
3,551
-7,662

0
291
0
3,460
8,071

0
0
0
0
5

0
0
0
3
11

0
0
0
4
20

0
0
0
0
3

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

-2,905
66,664
171,095
34,281
2,769
-3,608

5,385
0
0
-9,178
2,769
0

-8,702
0
0
0
0
0

-61
29,643
0
0
0
0

-544
23,330
0
0
0
0

245
0
0
0
0
-3,608

See footnotes at end of table.




87

.

0
0
0
0
0

0-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

T o ta l....................................................................................

86,099

260,098

-173,999

331,099

139,199

191,900

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k .............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

10
275
774
10,905
2,423

13
526
776
10,955
3,412

-3
-251
-2
-50
-990

87
6
19
-2,910
-444

3
4
19
-2,934
-669

84
3
0
25
224

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r..............

-888
38
-132
21
-366

416
41
526
30
103

-1,304
-3
-658
-8
-468

-646
88
-34
0
-9

-652
23
-34
0
-9

7
65
0
0
0

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

969
-7,332
234
72
0

1,007
24
580
201
0

-38
-7,356
-346
-129
0

97
29
825
35
8,826

81
29
218
-2
2,534

16
0
607
38
6,292

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

544
96
541
-174
135

622
96
1,971
87
790

-78
0
-1,430
-261
-656

2,572
4,812
808
785
508

2,555
4,812
31
185
12

17
0
777
600
496

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

1,563
-58
-958
-645
-1,648

1,638
16
84
145
221

-7 4
-74
-1,042
-790
-1,869

110
192
18
73
-28

37
3
0
1
2

73
189
17
72
-31

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

270
2,512
1,207
-306
212

358
2,816
1,317
1,170
372

-88
-304
-109
-1,476
-160

78
212
0
129
57

2
30
0
41
15

76
182
0
88
41

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill p roducts...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

-72
-9
-7,180
112
762

410
87
871
411
775

-482
-97
-8,051
-299
-13

22
0
310
279
1

16
0
218
204
0

6
0
92
76
1

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

-875
-165
1
-270
85

699
650
7
206
257

-1,574
-815
-6
-476
-172

112
482
13
142
489

33
177
13
79
112

79
305
0
63
377

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

851
122
-31
479
8

3,092
132
2
688
166

-2,240
-10
-33
-209
-158

831
77
4
1,165
1,403

197
24
2
72
432

634
54
2
1,093
971

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

78
868
1,291
604
502

1,919
1,360
1,531
1,031
773

-1,842
-492
-240
-427
-271

1,298
111
508
35
36

1,016
21
408
35
36

282
90
100
1
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

2,128
684
134
-1,729
-1,677

2,848
805
143
806
261

-720
-122
-9
-2,535
-1,939

2,079
302
170
2,386
134

232
74
43
1,197
81

1,847
228
127
1,190
52

See footnotes at end of table.




C-4. Gross national! product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative-continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

-1,027
1,155
50
-2,953
230

426
2,040
123
191
714

-1,453
-885
-73
-3,144
-484

485
297
1
32
294

248
116
1
11
69

238
180
0
21
225

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

-91
-56
-498
478
-4,195

102
34
103
712
749

-193
-90
-601
-233
-4,943

2,185
131
58
326
366

441
19
18
101
198

1,744
112
40
225
168

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

405
-827
-251
-1,593
3

521
250
737
229
43

-116
-1,077
-988
-1,823
-40

550
436
50
-41
22

123
202
45
-42
12

421
234
4
0
10

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

113
1,270
-285
516
-28

180
1,443
213
591
565

-67
-173
-498
-75
-592

136
2,730
104
20
233

32
987
93
12
91

105
1,743
11
9
142

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

-96
3,766
94
6,281
352

1,278
4,588
1,263
7,016
726

-1,374
-822
-1,169
-735
-374

669
476
91
357
191

248
441
25
216
132

421
36
66
141
59

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

58
1,144
1,943
241
8,411

989
2,312
3,262
259
13,761

-931
-1,168
-1,320
-18
-5,350

201
76
544
248
1,818

169
56
432
70
1,702

33
20
112
177
116

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household a p pliance s.....................................................

-64
3,036
916
1,021
-64

510
3,240
1,508
1,485
955

-574
-205
-592
-464
-1,019

460
588
633
444
78

180
151
447
382
17

280
437
185
62
61

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

642
-6,137
826
2,063
-179

777
1,747
947
3,692
8,835

-135
-7,884
-120
-1,629
-9,014

466
150
892
14,791
1,356

153
116
891
14,549
1,300

313
34
1
242
56

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor vehicles ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad eq uipm e nt.........................................................

968
-7,967
7,152
217
76

1,790
8,695
9,379
678
191

-822
-16,662
-2,227
-462
-115

321
2,493
9,435
3,661
136

261
727
9,424
3,609
4

60
1,766
11
52
132

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instruments ....................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment ...............................

-974
140
1,321
861
-235

48
199
1,566
1,089
484

-1,022
-60
-245
-228
-718

13
14
1,095
362
257

2
2
818
166
235

10
12
277
196
23

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

1,954
-1,017
-1,406
-464
284

3,350
368
566
777
915

-1,396
-1,385
-1,972
-1,241
-631

808
52
37
214
408

388
46
17
9
125

420
6
20
205
283

See footnotes at end of table.




89

C-4. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 moderate alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Federal
Total
government Government

Imports

State and
local
government

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

1,380
27
2,923
3,360
341

1,556
27
2,923
3,160
3,409

-175
0
0
200
-3,068

584
421
3,034
621
1,637

381
67
1,527
522
1,332

202
354
1,507
99
305

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and p riva te ................................

153
593
0
3,683
-234

153
593
0
3,683
100

0
0
0
0
-334

48
0
0
6,172
3,554

26
0
0
2,895
830

22
0
0
3,277
2,724

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

-994
30
14,376
0
93

195
30
9,429
0
93

-1,189
0
4,947
0
0

515
-126
4,238
-2,183
360

81
93
1,525
374
-17

434
-219
2,712
-2,557
377

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

27
34
19
0
5,907

27
34
760
0
5,907

0
0
-740
0
0

4,456
309
605
0
2,256

1,010
-27
-2
0
672

3,446
336
606
0
1,585

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

12
1
0
1,143
98

12
1
0
1,147
115

0
0
0
-4
-18

1,393
945
0
10,204
617

962
161
0
6,938
30

431
783
0
3,266
586

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

1,367
0
928
0
0

1,367
0
973
0
0

0
0
-45
0
0

5,608
759
220
-66
2,995

1,110
146
181
571
429

4,499
613
39
-636
2,566

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals........................................... ................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........... .............................................................

0
0
1
125
59

0
0
1
170
59

0
0
0
-45
0

5,191
5,276
1,633
9
1,270

1,038
153
1,616
1
516

4,153
5,123
17
8
754

0
5
0
29
2,942

0
O
0
55
9

204
3,449
56,833
-756
0
0

340
10,241
114,262
0
0
0

146. Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................

0

0

0

147. O ther Federal enterprises ..................................................

359

359

0

148. Local government passenger transit ............................
149. Other State and local enterprises.................................
150. Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
0
-18,723

0
0
1,152

0
0
-19,875

0
5
0
84
2,951

228
0
0
44,215
0
0

2,374
0
0
70,850
0
0

-2,146
0
0
-26,635
0
0

545
13,691
171,095
-756
0
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




90

C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

T o ta l....................................................................................

2,264,452

1,491,384

205,773

77,892

109,137

12,200

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

1,673
806
881
10,128
9,548

1,615
312
0
227
6,970

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
6
32

0
0
0
22
135

-29
304
85
1,961
582

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

-850
471
-206
15
-53

831
239
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
392

0
20
0
0
0

0
93
0
0
0

17
0
2
-4
3

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

1,210
-7,724
1,866
92
7,992

148
0
12
2
0

0
262
0
0
0

0
0
574
0
13

0
0
369
0
31

6
61
46
-6
0

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

4,188
5,011
25,236
13,931
15,517

1,002
0
24,323
13,439
14,905

0
144
0
0
0

33
0
2
0
0

14
0
8
0
0

36
-33
156
45
261

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...... .....................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

7,223
6,388
4
3,915
14,506

5,420
6,284
1,016
4,652
16,426

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
2
6

0
0
0
3
11

157
17
19
31
133

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and flavorings ...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

10,142
11,236
8,567
629
6,737

9,720
8,424
7,350
747
3,542

0
0
0
0
1,850

0
0
3
0
69

0
0
7
0
959

112
205
32
211
111

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

206
3,188
23,838
5,054
784

247
3,166
31,505
4,694
5

15
0
0
0
0

7
0
4
2
3

52
0
10
4
0

14
46
198
79
14

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts..............
Wooden containers................................................. ........
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

3,073
13,225
7
9,996
6,252

0
901
0
8,900
612

0
14
0
1,136
4,699

293
1,611
0
6
184

3,906
10,406
0
174
213

227
312
-4
94
72

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

7,107
372
2,157
8,094
2,790

5,562
159
2,179
6,558
1,467

0
0
0
0
0

82
2
0
2
7

402
4
0
6
18

265
15
17
71
49

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p ro d u cts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

1,637
1,244
3,197
648
512

29
202
943
0
0

337
0
0
0
0

163
2
337
0
0

18
8
165
0
0

24
88
43
162
20

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .................................................. .

19,317
12,969
1,434
18,908
1,463

15,430
11,973
218
17,323
3,366

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
304
1,067
112

0
0
534
664
97

124
75
92
261
159

See footnotes at end of table.




91

C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p roducts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

960
5,634
59
2,424
1,705

1,523
2,657
0
5,659
1,078

66
25
0
0
0

18
363
0
1
153

115
1,103
0
3
101

42
372
21
55
49

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

10,097
913
425
3,431
-3,329

2
0
491
365
6

0
0
0
0
0

3,175
106
195
1,317
1,845

4,988
756
281
913
464

98
21
26
139
43

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

1,137
3,333
-340
-1,713
157

0
34
18
0
0

5
165
0
0
22

95
2,593
37
1
0

130
1,248
10
0
0

34
112
162
41
126

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pinas...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

2,311
20,987
-177
1,335
2,925

257
68
65
717
1,757

0
2,718
0
0
84

351
9,809
46
14
285

1,451
4,220
20
0
669

37
426
59
93
157

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

5,876
6,130
7,845
13,737
4,306

425
504
162
0
0

1,471
1,588
7,820
6,454
3,218

3,235
0
0
731
574

297
0
0
100
24

426
79
112
60
89

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

9,063
5,776
7,279
642
57,319

404
156
0
45
7,483

8,525
4,774
4,333
66
41,209

8
0
383
4
0

15
0
364
10
0

198
50
197
52
332

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s................... .................................

4,688
12,726
7,371
3,662
12,188

1,626
1,040
53
48
9,746

2,905
6,159
4,841
2,195
2,115

0
650
515
25
91

0
1,275
573
1
333

5
80
71
99
250

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

4,767
13,134
10,979
23,432
3,677

1,136
20,116
469
407
3,565

222
674
8,758
6,579
90

1,501
3
0
64
0

806
7
0
123
0

76
258
73
27
168

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. Aircraft ...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad equipm ent.........................................................

6,414
70,365
19,556
6,841
1,847

3,426
59,124
1,106
1,802
0

1,816
28,285
2,246
1,524
1,677

25
31
0
0
0

52
22
0
0
0

109
728
53
78
14

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controllina instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instruments ....................................
Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t...............................

425
6,700
5,806
5,059
3,979

1,371
2,134
61
875
1,851

58
257
2,720
3,002
2,324

0
1
418
0
0

0
4,146
179
0
0

40
31
124
59
50

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s.....................
Other manufactured products.......................................

11,311
88
3,009
5,789
3,258

2,961
1,038
4,282
5,528
1,892

6,099
2
0
568
653

6
5
1
1
35

14
2
3
3
153

12
20
225
119
93

See footnotes at end of table.




92

C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Producers’
durable
equipment

Nonresidential
construction

Residential
construction

Change in
business
inventories

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation....................................................... ......

7,651
5,085
20,040
5,598
18,105

3,665
4,654
10,180
1,226
16,951

559
0
1,530
52
216

422
6
849
98
32

827
13
1,338
118
73

293
0
327
37
12

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and te le visio n ..............
Electric utilities, public and private................................

459
1,106
0
78,635
32,975

250
509
0
54,724
30,000

0
0
0
13,816
0

7
0
0
164
19

0
1
0
397
44

3
0
0
0
0

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

4,237
4,444
112,362
56,206
230,757

5,200
4,394
70,659
57,440
216,718

0
0
15,516
0
6,467

1
35
2,095
202
1,311

3
87
2,544
485
5,848

0
0
1,325
0
3

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

40,533
21,945
44,938
182,864
79,264

35,898
21,583
44,113
182,864
59,438

0
0
0
0
0

159
24
223
0
416

382
29
312
0
11,387

0
0
0
0
0

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s..................................
Advertising........................................................................

13,339
15,343
4,354
19,833
1,008

11,955
14,054
4,354
6,494
290

0
411
0
0
0

8
4
0
1,395
20

18
11
0
979
50

0
0
0
0
0

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile repair ............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ............ ....................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services .....................................

27,425
27,267
3,686
21,518
55,190

11,653
25,937
2,488
21,503
52,458

0
0
0
0
0

3,786
318
0
6
0

5,479
317
0
15
0

0
0
64
0
0

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

56,546
23,978
19,342
23,761
3,735

51,790
19,237
17,739
23,557
2,445

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
25
13

0
0
4
60
33

0
0
0
0
0

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger transit ............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
668
0
3,808
-17,382

0
302
0
3,721
8,482

0
0
0
0
6

0
0
0
3
12

0
0
0
7
30

0
0
0
0
3

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

-4,903
80,732
194,557
20,360
2,981
-3,730

6,543
0
0
-9,628
2,981
0

-9,959
0
0
0
0
0

-62
32,639
0
0
0
0

-623
35,559
0
0
0
0

254
0
0
0
0
-3,730

See footnotes at end of table.




93

C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative-continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total
Federal
government Government

State and
local
government

T o ta l....................................................................................

22,800

261,698

-238,898

345,267

144,567

200,700

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

9
185
778
10,953
2,274

14
529
781
11,022
3,433

-4
-345
-3
-69
-1,159

78
6
18
-3,041
-446

3
4
18
-3,063
-646

75
2
0
22
201

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore mining ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c op per..............

-1,072
38
-174
19
-440

418
42
529
30
103

-1,490
-4
-703
-11
-543

-625
81
-34
0
-9

-631
23
-34
0
-9

6
58
0
0
0

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair con struction............................

961
-8,076
109
65
0

1,013
24
583
202
0

-52
-8,100
-475
-137
0

95
28
756
31
7,949

81
28
212
-2
2,308

14
0
545
34
5,641

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

519
97
20
-270
-105

626
97
1,984
88
795

-107
0
-1,963
-358
-900

2,584
4,803
727
717
457

2,569
4,803
30
179
12

15
0
697
538
445

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S uaar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

1,546
-86
-1,047
-839
-2,044

1,648
16
84
146
222

-102
-102
-1,131
-984
-2,266

101
172
16
66
-25

36
3
0
1
2

65
169
16
65
-28

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco manufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

239
2,416
1,175
-449
154

360
2,833
1,325
1,177
374

-120
-417
-150
-1,626
-220

70
192
0
120
52

2
29
0
41
15

68
163
0
79
37

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

-149
-25
-8,177
3
762

413
88
876
413
780

-562
-113
-9,054
-410
-18

21
0
299
272
1

16
0
216
204
0

5
0
82
88
0

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture.................................. ........................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

-1,458
-465
-2
-447
23

703
654
7
207
258

-2,161
-1,119
-8
-654
-236

104
448
13
134
449

33
175
13
77
110

71
273
0
57
338

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

35
120
-43
406
-50

3,111
133
2
692
167

-3,076
-14
-45
-286
-217

761
72
4
1,051
1,298

193
24
2
71
427

568
48
2
980
871

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

-198
843
1,210
451
456

1,931
1,369
1,540
1,037
778

-2,128
-526
-330
-586
-322

1,263
101
498
36
36

1,010
21
408
35
36

253
81
90
0
0

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products................ .......
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

1,877
643
132
-2,670
-2,399

2,866
810
144
811
263

-989
-167
-12
-3,481
-2,662

1,886
278
156
2,263
128

230
74
42
1,196
81

1,656
204
114
1,066
47

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

______

See footnotes at end of table.




94

C-5. Gross national product and major components by industry, 1995 high alternative—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

-1,267
838
38
-3,325
54

428
2,052
124
192
719

-1,695
-1,215
-86
-3,517
-665

461
277
1
30
270

248
115
1
11
68

213
162
0
18
202

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p roducts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

-163
-90
-622
396
-6,034

103
34
103
716
753

-265
-123
-725
-320
-6,787

1,995
119
54
302,,
347

431
19
18
100
196

1,564
100
36
202
150

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

365
-1,228
-616
-1,712
-12

524
251
742
231
44

-159
-1,479
-1,357
-1,943
-55

507
408
50
-43
21

129
198
46
-43
12

378
210
4
0
9

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

89
1,214
-469
492
-245

181
1,452
214
595
568

-92
-237
-683
-102
-813

125
2,533
102
19
217

32
970
92
11
90

94
1,563
10
8
128

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

-601
3,487
-334
6,050
217

1,286
4,616
1,271
7,060
731

-1,887
-1,129
-1,605
-1,009
-514

622
471
84
342
183

245
440
25
216
130

378
32
59
126
53

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

-283
723
1,471
236
6,500

995
2,326
3,282
260
13,846

-1,278
-1,604
-1,812
-24
-7,346

197
74
531
229
1,795

168
55
430
70
1,692

29
18
101
159
104

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines....... .......................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household a p pliance s.....................................................

-275
2,979
704
857
-438

513
3,260
1,517
1,494
961

-788
-281
-813
-637
-1,399

427
542
613
437
71

176
150
447
381
17

251
392
166
55
54

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

597
-8,067
787
1,478
-1,486

782
1,758
953
3,715
8,889

-186
-9,825
-165
-2,237
-10,376

431
144
891
14,755
1,341

150
114
890
14,538
1,290

281
30
1
217
50

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad e q uipm e nt.........................................................

672
-20,128
6,980
49
34

1,801
8,749
9,437
683
192

-1,129
-28,877
-2,457
-634
-158

314
2,304
9,172
3,388
123

260
721
9,162
3,341
4

54
1,583
10
47
119

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instruments ....................................
Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt...............................

-1,055
118
1,239
783
-499

48
200
1,575
1,096
487

-1,104
-82
-336
-313
-986

12
13
1,064
339
253

2
2
816
163
233

9
10
248
176
20

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

1,454
-1,032
-1,538
-623
55

3,371
371
570
782
920

-1,916
-1,402
-2,108
-1,404
-866

763
51
36
193
377

386
46
18
9
124

377
6
18
184
254

See footnotes at end of table.




95

C-5. dross national product and major components by Industry, 19S5 high alternative-continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Federal
Total
government Government

State and
local
government

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

1,324
28
2,941
3,454
-782

1,565
28
2,941
3,179
3,430

-241
0
0
275
-4,212

561
384
2,875
613
1,604

380
67
1,524
525
1,330

181
318
1,351
88
274

118.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

154
5S7
0
3,705
-358

154
597
0
3,705
101

0
0
0
0
-458

45
0
0
5,828
3,271

26
0
0
2,890
829

20
0
0
2,938
2,442

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

-1,436
30
16,279
0
93

196
30
9,487
0
93

-1,633
0
6,792
0
0

470
-103
3,943
-1,921
316

81
93
1,511
371
-23

389
-196
2,432
-2,292
338

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

27
34
-252
0
5,944

27
34
764
0
5,944

0
0
-1,016
0
0

4,067
275
543
0
2,080

977
-26
-1
0
659

3,089
301
544
0
1,421

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair services .........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

12
1
0
1,148
92

12
1
0
1,154
116

0
0
0
-6
-24

1,346
862
0
9,817
556

960
160
0
6,889
31

387
702
0
2,928
525

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

1,376
0
918
0
0

1,376
0
979
0
0

0
0
-61
0
0

5,130
694
217
-6
2,732

1,097
145
182
564
431

4,033
549
35
-570
2,301

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

0
0
1
110
60

0
0
1
171
60

0
0
0
-61
0

4,756
4,741
1,597
8
1,185

1,033
148
1,582
1
509

3,723
4,593
15
7
676

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal enterprises ..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
362
0
0
-28,864

0
362
0
0
1,153

0
0
0
0
-30,023

0
5
0
78
2,949

0
5
0
29
2,942

0
0
0
49
8

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent.....................................

-1,559
0
0
30,716
0
0

2,388
0
0
71,284
0
0

-3,947
0
0
-40,568
0
0

504
12,534
194,557
-731
0
0

199
3,352
63,463
-731
0
0

305
9,182
131,094
0
0
0

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.




96

D-1. G ross ouSpuS by industry, 1958-95
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

industry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1968

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

10,847
22,210
2,096
12,463
11,388

10,750
23,428
2,577
11,714
11,698

10,789
23,185
2,394
12,980
11,914

11,174
24,354
2,330
12,076
12,297

11,224
25,152
2,436
12,568
12,909

11,237
25,816
2,658
13,764
13,057

11,459
25,860
2,543
13,769
13,394

11,347
25,671
2,435
15,056
13,208

11,324
26,673
1,911
14,465
13,717

6. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m inin g.......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

2,273
2,192
695
948
424

1,953
2,491
662
800
553

2,108
2,626
976
1,047
553

2,629
2,684
842
1,129
501

2,600
2,762
852
1,190
490

2,730
2,834
934
1,174
504

2,310
2,982
1,062
1,208
583

2,240
2,993
1,136
1,310
551

2,145
2,960
1,224
1,390
559

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

3,978
11,410
1,881
382
30,828

3,987
12,084
2,042
428
33,844

3,995
12,280
2,064
450
36,072

3,862
12,589
2,138
461
36,585

4,028
12,921
2,199
458
34,431

4,375
13,420
2,320
486
36,002

4,075
13,732
2,447
552
35,706

4,792
14,106
2,589
622
35,364

4,972
15,006
2,677
699
35,772

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

1,229
3,391
20,386
13,027
7,031

1,432
3,605
21,584
13,295
7,249

1,653
3,632
22,311
13,249
8,031

1,416
3,149
23,062
13,462
8,104

1,804
3,591
23,280
13,510
8,411

2,262
4,378
25,013
13,352
8,775

2,130
4,378
26,726
13,998
9,335

2,358
4,445
25,428
13,788
9,944

3,963
6,353
25,336
13,367
10,134

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

8,935
7,450
2,322
2,422
6,360

9,062
7,503
2,422
2,471
6,606

9,619
7,565
2,467
2,513
6,712

9,696
7,518
2,521
2,592
6,804

9,645
7,665
2,644
2,668
7,021

9,990
7,738
2,591
2,694
7,328

10,141
7,985
2,647
2,709
7,873

10,146
8,112
2,746
2,780
8,036

10,444
8,184
2,789
2,947
8,583

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

2,968
8,269
8,103
11,252
622

3,032
8,825
8,320
12,619
749

3,130
9,064
9,032
12,278
753

3,217
9,120
9,132
12,653
819

3,421
10,191
9,166
13,571
1,021

3,572
10,114
9,163
13,814
1,028

3,805
10,173
9,406
14,607
1,219

3,892
10,343
9,264
15,325
1,322

4,308
10,842
9,107
16,332
1,453

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit g o o d s ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

1,562
2,434
14,726
2,157
2,855

1,762
2,706
15,734
2,335
3,000

1,714
2,611
15,790
2,371
3,124

1,699
2,844
15,959
2,407
3,247

1,786
2,988
16,938
2,505
3,207

1,899
3,200
17,855
2,751
3,609

1,988
3,429
18,448
2,877
3,755

2,282
3,841
19,232
3,200
3,905

2,396
4,152
19,845
3,374
3,836

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

5,540
3,872
539
3,971
1,755

6,163
4,396
535
4,391
1,883

5,788
4,373
563
4,136
1,953

5,606
4,525
583
4,027
1,958

5,778
5,025
603
4,359
2,131

6,108
5,415
532
4,689
2,245

6,378
5,907
535
4,936
2,384

6,308
6,176
599
5,250
2,611

6,120
6,586
653
5,402
2,871

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

10,873

12,054

12,120

12,428

13,144

13,886

14,409

15,392

16,509

4,164
5,675
5,315
7,519

4,594
6,112
5,955
8,034

4,553
6,209
6,213
8,298

4,939
6,125
6,329
8,505

5,183
6,176
6,525
8,859

5,415
6,217
6,759
8,838

5,791
6,522
7,234
9,344

6,255
6,863
7,362
10,182

6,714
6,962
7,855
10,881

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products..................................... ............
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

7,007
1,634
2,372
1,890
1,260

8,075
1,862
2,700
2,463
1,493

8,164
1,912
2,590
2,456
1,484

8,400
1,934
2,602
2,467
1,546

9,158
2,071
2,801
2,778
1,811

9,923
2,343
2,788
2,967
1,974

10,833
2,644
3,026
3,285
2,265

11,673
2,835
3,234
3,636
2,686

12,423
3,079
3,543
4,179
2,864

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

2,706
3,702
2,221
18,744
2,621

2,949
4,210
2,535
19,891
3,223

3,019
4,217
2,467
20,441
3,265

3,222
4,452
2,363
20,413
3,097

3,524
4,760
2,512
21,142
3,470

3,742
5,295
2,851
22,407
3,434

3,933
5,631
2,949
23,767
3,638

4,437
6,020
3,189
23,965
3,980

4,836
6,528
3,383
24,802
4,225




97

D-1. Gross output by industry, ISSB-iS—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Historical
mausiry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p roducts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

2,571
2,842
1,223
4,550
2,913

2,773
3,429
1,218
4,726
3,496

2,742
3,502
1,179
4,552
3,500

2,958
3,742
1,121
4,532
3,413

3,441
4,176
1,087
4,621
3,599

3,559
4,632
1,152
4,499
3,872

3,764
5,129
1,167
4,760
4,083

3,956
5,787
1,223
4,852
4,418

3,932
8,326
1,194
4,936
4,732

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u c ts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

5,545
898
534
2,535
21,037

6,133
1,054
645
2,985
24,037

5,943
1,054
620
2,899
24,443

5,918
1,049
577
2,925
23,420

6,105
1,100
628
3,096
24,132

6,803
1,003
675
3,285
25,568

7,075
1,102
704
3,522
29,041

7,506
1,138
726
3,867
31,868

7,583
1,148
773
4,218
32,640

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts......................
Metal containers....................................... .......................

4,231
6,507
3,207
3,178
2,908

5,275
6,775
4,025
3,442
3,093

4,979
7,082
3,657
3,518
3,111

4,681
7,752
3,787
3,648
3,262

5,380
8,248
4,244
3,827
3,257

5,746
8,679
4,745
3,901
3,235

6,502
9,054
4,988
4,155
3,461

7,249
10,019
5,600
4,464
3,647

7,768
11,343
6,537
5,353
3,835

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

1,616
7,683
2,214
4,491
2,643

1,837
7,659
2,838
5,517
2,979

1,739
7,779
2,702
5,640
2,986

1,742
7,884
2,348
5,060
2,943

1,851
8,104
2,505
5,936
3,271

1,885
8,594
2,609
6,198
3,432

2,064
9,079
2,875
6,368
3,710

2,060
10,049
3,138
7,258
4,208

2,142
10,944
3,557
7,541
4,410

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and genera tors.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

4,991
2,499
3,428
4,302
1,309

5,684
2,680
3,642
5,132
1,483

5,490
2,376
2,936
4,473
1,559

5,515
2,259
3,141
4,222
1,423

6,269
2,622
3,377
4,678
1,599

6,311
2,723
3,724
5,082
1,821

6,745
3,078
4,188
5,927
2,065

7,550
3,327
4,486
6,431
2,303

8,171
3,735
5,397
6,700
2,783

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

4,423
3,281
4,445
2,199
1,458

5,086
3,738
5,167
2,645
1,735

5,292
4,209
5,084
2,602
2,069

4,994
4,211
4,953
2,683
2,250

5,788
4,300
5,531
3,047
2,433

5,868
4,287
5,992
2,976
2,626

6,672
4,886
6,769
3,223
3,092

7,520
5,401
7,730
3,256
3,352

8,574
6,145
8,573
4,002
4,842

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission eq u ip m e n t........ ...........................
Electrical industrial apparatus.............................. ...........
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

720
2,032
2,551
2,679
2,987

769
2,394
2,932
3,234
3,408

830
2,441
2,961
3,269
3,437

853
2,407
3,005
3,245
3,434

900
2,726
3,189
3,564
3,812

921
3,157
3,019
3,717
4,233

985
3,413
3,204
4,148
4,569

1,045
3,873
3,602
4,737
5,051

1,311
4,480
4,108
5,483
5,430

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

2,761
1,205
1,355
3,124
1,795

3,238
1,396
1,466
3,860
2,333

3,158
1,370
1,684
4,955
2,484

3,204
1,475
1,967
6,494
2,467

3,445
1,804
2,151
7,925
2,948

3,485
1,939
2,020
8,433
2,947

3,762
2,153
2,306
7,748
3,143

4,172
2,744
2,730
8,520
4,289

4,471
3,642
2,981
9,673
5,555

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad equipm ent.........................................................

1,825
25,766
17,774
2,677
1,196

2,192
32,776
18,335
2,613
1,386

2,193
37,008
16,689
2,404
1,534

2,178
31,930
17,969
2,591
1,150

2,488
40,409
18,437
2,670
1,572

2,553
44,697
18,419
2,740
1,864

2,632
45,863
18,179
2,987
2,479

2,993
56,090
19,048
3,317
2,919

3,543
55,498
22,843
3,662
3,313

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum en ts....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

136
584
2,521
799
994

177
695
3,180
897
917

166
671
3,235
980
840

181
605
3,159
966
620

210
674
2,944
1,040
607

232
959
2,877
1,160
629

279
1,213
2,952
1,208
616

301
1,369
3,431
1,296
714

309
1,471
3,445
1,454
752

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

1,388
431
1,383
1,818
2,857

1,483
554
1,458
2,071
3,053

1,664
533
1,451
2,187
3,122

1,664
506
1,518
2,297
3,151

1,769
545
1,532
2,341
3,464

2,018
660
1,682
2,416
3,650

2,238
730
1,792
2,521
3,866

2,707
831
2,060
2,839
4,050

3,498
917
2,211
2,938
4,193




98

D-1. G ross ou tp u t by industry, 1958-95— C ontinued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

industry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

11,701
6,015
16,507
7,229
3,365

12,034
5,885
17,993
7,193
4,014

12,279
5,910
18,393
7,544
4,054

12,050
5,713
19,086
6,418
4,159

12,556
5,757
19,944
6,928
4,585

13,035
5,762
21,692
6,893
5,206

13,630
5,717
22,954
7,393
5,965

14,414
5,773
23,179
7,099
7,021

15,142
5,806
24,567
7,128
8,254

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ...... ............................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

716
857
2,997
11,118
12,344

771
893
3,003
11,846
13,380

778
909
3,321
12,605
14,063

791
1,037
3,392
13,283
14,899

808
1,132
3,472
14,313
16,556

859
1,129
3,302
15,260
17,636

914
971
3,198
16,380
18,754

1,039
1,012
3,286
18,048
19,962

1,131
1,175
3,480
19,993
21,534

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u b lic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

9,711
1,581
50,187
36,530
56,075

10,505
1,753
54,651
37,315
60,120

11,176
1,804
56,646
37,356
61,790

11,609
1,794
58,316
36,993
63,133

12,411
1,915
61,963
37,758
68,220

12,985
1,960
64,458
38,265
71,036

13,918
2,120
67,347
40,145
77,050

14,400
2,111
72,302
40,957
82,393

15,338
2,266
77,031
44,806
85,070

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

12,100
10,458
25,032
39,778
43,878

13,132
9,316
25,075
41,967
44,747

13,868
9,756
26,296
44,278
48,311

14,318
13,156
26,610
46,279
52,969

14,618
8,605
27,090
48,749
56,577

15,313
8,375
27,441
50,817
60,058

16,238
8,376
28,186
53,033
61,833

16,892
10,919
29,538
55,723
65,939

17,825
12,966
30,550
58,220
68,346

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

2,329
13,456
3,665
8,617
2,027

2,594
13,642
3,899
10,698
2,594

3,015
13,417
3,931
10,711
2,323

3,160
14,158
4,194
11,764
2,342

3,789
14,068
4,470
12,723
2,453

4,547
14,991
4,445
13,366
2,659

4,740
15,947
4,616
15,299
2,322

5,399
15,322
4,701
16,768
2,648

5,690
16,300
5,045
18,335
2,841

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ se rv ic e s .....................................

17,510
15,257
4,177
5,076
12,315

17,518
16,410
4,227
5,668
13,061

17,154
17,431
3,443
5,813
13,244

18,977
16,669
3,871
6,276
13,490

19,914
17,404
3,950
6,546
14,202

19,974
18,738
3,625
6,898
14,746

20,125
19,443
4,009
6,979
16,749

21,436
19,903
3,584
7,501
17,080

23,282
20,627
4,201
7,644
17,402

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

7,620
3,134
11,143
8,232
5,644

8,110
3,321
11,608
8,824
5,758

8,589
3,588
11,571
9,340
5,984

9,271
3,547
12,415
9,654
6,098

9,888
3,915
12,685
10,151
6,248

10,582
4,110
15,224
10,482
6,379

11,253
4,754
14,604
10,905
6,541

11,957
5,064
14,125
11,431
6,751

12,912
5,382
14,180
12,275
7,107

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
867
1,170
4,886
0

0
1,096
1,194
5,150
0

0
1,045
1,172
5,370
0

0
911
1,204
5,608
0

0
1,029
1,159
5,946
0

0
1,285
1,297
6,039
0

0
1,292
1,363
6,235
0

0
1,496
1,343
6,509
0

0
1,670
1,356
6,759
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
82,357
0
0
6,882
0

0
90,256
0
0
6,716
0

0
89,445
0
0
6,756
0

0
92,197
0
0
6,551
0




99

0
0
0
0
0
97,451 103,622 107,676 114,775 114,668
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,347
6,144
5,905
6,519
6,428
0
0
0
0
0

D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Historical
muusuy
1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

11,412
27,276
1,341
16,571
14,226

11,219
28,033
1,741
15,186
14,535

11,182
28,052
1,929
16,164
15,352

11,488
29,256
1,730
15,287
15,247

11,526
30,626
1,717
18,128
15,313

11,768
31,556
2,093
17,814
15,179

11,328
30,508
2,217
19,218
16,024

11,165
28,685
2,222
19,715
15,096

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore mining ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

2,312
3,195
1,193
923
519

1,882
3,305
1,287
1,167
543

1,423
3,264
1,348
1,497
611

2,194
3,465
1,279
1,474
587

1,970
3,557
1,233
1,613
657

1,733
3,385
1,517
1,664
633

1,647
3,346
1,463
1,546
641

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

2,499
3,278
1,395
1,666
618.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying......... ..................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair con struction............................

5,133
15,960
2,609
743
36,535

5,051
16,652
2,673
730
35,290

5,202
17,121
2,713
721
35,621

5,545
17,928
2,766
736
35,015

5,076
17,832
2,757
729
35,470

5,442
17,819
2,849
775
36,404

5,435
17,617
3,443
782
34,242

5,558
16,913
3,542
802
33,683

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

6,476
5,790
28,602
13,784
10,519

8,490
5,843
29,190
13,471
10,762

7,786
5,767
28,919
13,465
11,064

4,886
4,160
29,199
13,241
11,211

3,503
4,185
30,223
13,805
11,751

3,094
3.987
32,712
14,811
12,498

2,991
4,351
29,800
15,038
13,281

2,931
4,613
31,969
15,667
12,903

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mil! products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ................................. .................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

11,372
8,102
2,996
3,200
9,022

11,558
8,155
3,134
3,275
9,587

12,010
8,334
3,080
3,194
10,423

12,098
8,030
3,072
3,268
11,140

12,040
7,991
3,175
3,315
11,793

12,811
8,335
3,163
3,449
11,695

12,278
8,253
3,238
3,658
11,917

12,765
8,070
2,947
3,746
12,610

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco manufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

4,697
11,568
9,119
16,255
1,685

4,967
11,623
8,972
16,791
2,077

5,262
11,951
8,658
16,479
2,349

5,789
12,041
8,802
16,332
2,381

5,947
12,374
8,890
16,786
2,665

6,300
12,527
9,244
17,688
3,138

6,579
12,255
9,664
16,912
3,531

6,639
12,883
9,981
16,172
2,909

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products .,..................................
Logging..............................................................................

2,311
4,402
20,634
3,688
4,119

2,577
4,920
21,244
3,942
4,307

2,696
5,431
21,326
4,456
4,168

2,439
5,588
19,809
4,352
4,620

2,651
6,199
20,702
4,771
3,740

2,821
7,544
22,660
4,924
4,434

2,725
7,856
23,229
5,078
4,468

2,592
6,785
21,547
4,355
4,872

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

6,219
7,160
670
5,359
3,014

6,157
7,458
642
5,714
3,069

6,064
7,051
602
5,850
3,411

6,113
7,576
481
5,632
3,085

6,082
8,511
434
6,073
3,044

7,074
10,044
466
7,281
3,726

6,781
9,761
389
7,644
3,907

6,370
9,219
426
6,717
3,666

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

16,574
6,750
7,197
8,605
11,020

17,495
7,168
7,415
8,571
11,446

18,805
7,495
7,780
8,854
11,987

18,234
7,303
7,484
7,890
11,822

18,531
7,258
7,516
7,986
11,758

19,855
7,979
8,252
8,268
13,248

21,739
8,538
8,523
8,809
13,852

23,225
8,436
8,610
8,522
13,451

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

12,324
3,206
3,811
4,105
2,873

13,085
3,238
4,267
4,625
3,657

14,309
3,553
4,358
5,218
3,619

14,433
3,123
4,053
5,051
3,460

14,631
3,082
4,231
5,390
3,901

16,098
3,547
4,386
5,529
4,154

17,803
4,012
4,470
5,983
5,086

18,005
5,009
4,119
6,130
5,344

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs ..................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

5,345
6,849
3,228
26,373
4,072

5,715
7,349
3,285
28,152
4,817

6,362
7,567
3,263
29,243
5,105

6,805
8,130
3,392
29,591
4,720

7,197
8,013
3,502
30,394
5,276

7,921
9,304
3,611
31,438
5,873

8,492
9,865
3,878
30,054
6,498

9,221
10,339
3,876
32,863
6,443




100

D-1. Gross ©utput by industry, 1958-9S~G©ntinu®d
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Historical
maustry
1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes .......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r......................... .
G la s s ........ ..........................................................................

3,923
6,842
1,209
5,035
4,687

4,078
7,680
1,211
5,276
4,807

4,289
8,212
1,095
5,071
5,040

4,213
7,900
1,015
4,730
4,854

4,002
8,381
1,057
4,475
5,104

4,227
10,550
1,063
4,529
5,583

4,226
12,203
948
4,502
6,063

4,553
11,762
996
4,306
5,721

61.
82.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p roducts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

7,571
1,058
765
3,663
30,418

7,854
1,117
739
4,046
31,351

8,026
1,142
859
3,901
32,338

7,737
1,055
721
3,652
28,952

8,123
1,073
738
3,536
26,936

9,174
1,129
811
4,185
28,881

9,537
1,156
891
4,685
34,950

9,148
1,217
956
4,923
37,960

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers....................................... ........................

7,465
9,415
6,385
5,042
4,163

7,642
9,557
6,983
5,357
4,564

8,127
10,637
7,175
5,516
4,668

6,979
10,133
6,523
4,674
4,929

6,921
9,820
6,600
4,541
4,717

7,821
11,175
7,699
5,124
4,873

8,879
12,570
9,312
5,295
5,105

9,210
11,717
9,067
5,156
5,215

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardware............................

1,964
11,880
3,474
7,274
4,327

2,176
12,080
3,515
8,155
4,418

2,352
12,354
3,419
8,088
4,614

2,120
12,287
2,878
6,922
4,284

2,197
12,246
2,672
7,366
4,458

2,083
13,300
3,045
8,222
4,960

2,180
14,812
3,637
9,065
5,333

1,861
14,337
3,481
8,179
5,055

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

8,287
3,795
5,171
6,818
2,652

8,717
4,131
4,953
6,949
2,632

9,036
4,877
4,590
7,273
2,932

8,619
4,835
4,585
6,992
2,770

8,421
5,010
4,515
6,848
2,609

9,240
5,411
5,574
7,898
2,811

10,298
6,081
6,718
9,195
3,196

10,420
6,496
7,525
10,511
3,427

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

8,531
5,961
8,165
4,998
4,318

8,124
5,913
7,743
4,655
4,905

8,467
5,962
8,368
4,641
6,081

7,511
5,446
7,908
4,437
6,139

6,397
4,901
7,268
4,015
5,797

7,155
5,866
8,149
4,450
6,652

8,731
6,758
9,491
5,062
8,140

9,130
6,925
9,867
5,397
9,920

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission e q uipm e nt....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

1,384
4,744
4,318
5,321
5,488

1,360
5,167
4,334
5,347
5,995

1,488
6,115
4,660
5,602
6,146

1,410
5,951
4,566
5,178
5,910

1,374
6,439
4,476
4,923
5,740

1,400
8,518
5,043
5,376
6,671

1,757
9,568
5,745
6,350
7,436

1,885
8,743
5,696
6,630
7,034

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring ...............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

4,404
3,408
3,050
10,544
6,129

4,705
3,767
3,240
11,542
5,968

5,113
3,901
3,752
11,184
6,505

4,888
3,496
4,286
9,776
6,169

4,761
3,892
4,283
8,686
5,987

5,533
4,402
4,502
9,032
8,416

5,973
5,111
4,942
9,534
9,364

5,578
4,746
5,199
9,483
9,220

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor vehicles ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft.................................................................. .............
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad equipm e nt.........................................................

3,329
48,890
26,230
3,930
2,746

3,575
58,052
27,780
3,858
2,227

3,717
58,574
26,149
3,917
2,769

3,779
47,586
21,880
3,699
2,538

3,879
60,821
18,556
3,657
2,652

4,277
64,972
16,986
4,363
2,549

4,774
75,506
19,851
4,810
2,830

4,721
83,565
19,557
4,831
3,220

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instruments ......... ...........................
Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt...............................

358
1,758
3,571
1,621
927

410
2,262
3,539
1,867
1,008

388
2,666
3,558
2,101
1,112

475
3,020
3,519
1,994
956

483
3,817
3,273
2,219
964

661
5,050
3,358
2,629
1,105

671
4,877
4,096
2,822
1,163

837
3,468
4,545
2,984
1,317

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s .................................................. ......
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

3,627
949
2,320
2,804
4,349

3,888
1,074
2,476
3.019
4,468

4,382
1,097
2,503
3,260
4,799

4,375
983
2,328
3,126
4,746

4,620
990
2,370
3,150
4,799

5,424
1,001
2,513
4,073
5,405

6,249
1,067
2,531
4,142
5,494

6,813
1,038
2,214
4,146
5,137




101

D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Historical
muusiry
1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad tra nspo rtatio n...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

14,659
5,799
25,115
6,391
10,120

14,842
5,945
25,582
6,759
11,410

15,107
6,060
26,075
5,958
12,226

14,993
6,149
26,575
6,159
11,825

14,419
6,058
28,717
6,279
12,013

15,112
5,980
29,981
7,303
13,082

16,506
6,000
32,212
7,886
13,871

16,457
6,170
31,546
7,160
15,098

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and te le visio n ..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

1,227
1,123
3,412
21,132
22,734

1,328
1,337
3,424
23,120
24,478

1,395
1,585
3,915
25,665
26,360

1,465
1,279
3,872
28,024
28,209

1,508
1,400
4,184
29,455
29,632

1,617
1,636
4,513
31,560
31,661

1,721
1,848
4,466
34,599
34,164

1,717
1,860
4,464
36,840
34,336

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ......................

16,100
2,162
79,893
45,028
87,620

17,134
2,334
85,761
43,486
96,155

18,255
2,333
89,233
41,961
101,134

18,943
2,434
90,974
46,522
99,191

19,642
2,409
96,226
46,785
104,441

20,138
2,582
103,870
48,548
112,531

19,530
3,263
106,914
50,375
120,029

19,036
3,104
105,169
50,308
117,298

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

Banking ..............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance ...........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

18,813
13,377
30,143
60,765
71,212

20,178
15,145
31,621
63,499
75,439

21,622
12,545
32,265
66,892
81,059

23,003
12,138
35,990
69,351
85,194

23,789
13,768
38,124
72,536
91,111

24,913
13,613
38,631
76,783
97,918

26,190
15,165
38,756
80,813
105,645

27,854
12,554
37,322
85,622
107,823

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

6,517
15,678
5,166
18,699
2,956

6,683
15,933
4,726
26,216
2,821

7,082
15,519
4,743
28,729
3,130

8,138
15,976
4,769
31,529
3,249

7,969
16,639
4,377
35,291
2,969

9,122
17,617
4,310
38,265
3,032

9,638
18,666
3,851
40,825
3,060

9,638
18,056
3,951
44,579
3,208

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s.....................................

25,768
20,749
3,769
7,181
18,530

23,160
21,936
3,932
7,826
18,889

26,133
22,412
3,773
8,098
20,218

27,403
22,418
4,588
7,940
21,381

26,343
23,402
4,649
8,621
21,941

27,339
24,339
4,504
8,602
23,056

29,919
27,582
5,579
10,146
25,253

32,115
26,630
5,520
11,196
25,285

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospita ls...........................................................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

14,363
5,572
15,309
13,301
7,367

15,661
6,869
15,156
13,632
7,471

17,237
7,196
13,672
14,271
7,701

18,713
8,174
13,566
14,237
7,970

20,736
9,127
13,175
14,387
8,177

22,298
9,841
13,463
15,547
8,192

23,510
10,643
13,579
16,125
8,532

24,726
11,068
13,376
16,358
8,677

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal enterprises ..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
1,975
1,419
6,879
0

0
2,315
1,444
7,020
0

0
2,232
1,507
7,277
0

0
2,217
1,530
7,522
0

0
2,305
1,450
7,647
0

0
2,623
1,426
8,101
0

0
2,452
1,435
8,352
0

0
2,745
1,465
8,491
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
112,293
0
0
5,932
0

0
119,362
0
0
5,640
0

0
120,220
0
0
5,335
0

0
112,588
0
0
4,993
0

0
121,343
0
0
4,766
0

0
129,581
0
0
4,631
0

0
132,500
0
0
4,486
0

0
113,977
0
0
3,878
0




102

>-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued
/lillions of 1972 dollars)
Historical
industry
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

11,929
27,311
1,825
19,665
17,343

12,230
28,591
2,020
21,621
16,230

12,536
29,309
2,080
19,887
17,163

12,530
28,390
2,161
20,888
17,372

12,178
30,726
2,355
21,940
18,233

12,324
31,092
2,094
21,969
17,048

13,828
34,888
2,349
24,646
19,125

14,430
36,399
2,450
25,714
19,952

6. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m inin g.......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
0. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

1,970
3,495
1,344
1,241
588

2,055
3,617
1,433
1,410
624

2,208
3,842
1,141
1,320
644

2,246
4,044
1,615
1,313
630

1,891
4,259
1,689
1,397
626

1,949
3,870
1,394
1,133
554

2,013
3,996
1,507
1,463
644

2,014
4,000
749
1,098
506

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

i1.
1
2.
1
3.
1
4.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

5,974
16,166
3,260
816
38,973

6,283
15,925
3,656
822
41,053

6,416
16,169
4,081
868
42,953

6,166
16,723
4,431
917
44,898

7,180
16,334
4,501
939
46,047

7,871
17,892
4,306
899
47,716

7,581
19,704
4,231
884
50,345

7,656
17,597
3,665
766
48,296

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

3,026
4,482
29,786
15,987
12,622

2,995
4,188
33,735
16,342
13,418

2,529
3,433
33,417
16,565
14,434

2,618
3,676
33,295
16,408
15,251

2,745
4,030
33,599
15,835
14,747

2,832
4,134
34,934
16,497
14,105

2,949
3,965
35,132
17,083
14,815

3,160
3,612
34,901
16,971
15,140

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

12,985
8,061
2,501
3,262
11,503

13,514
8,289
3,254
3,385
11,640

14,286
7,956
3,210
3,877
12,440

14,293
7,887
2,704
4,115
13,641

14,201
7,913
2,779
4,133
13,808

14,023
8,030
2,852
4,225
13,240

13,820
8,355
2,950
4,370
13,564

13,599
8,062
2,931
4,587
13,398

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

6,511
13,183
10,205
15,763
2,630

6,830
14,295
10,480
17,968
3,034

7,331
12,823
9,957
19,021
3,701

7,949
14,658
9,957
18,539
3,892

7,999
14,552
9,596
18,489
4,302

8,084
15,139
10,404
17,252
4,182

8,135
15,619
10,613
17,282
3,832

7,889
16,148
10,248
15,572
3,746

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

2,373
6,788
20,960
4,540
4,963

2,744
6,991
21,851
5,071
4,688

3,143
7,494
23,252
5,934
5,214

3,371
7,643
23,910
6,095
5,001

3,404
7,490
22,507
5,674
4,982

3,161
6,960
23,868
5,307
4,315

2,942
7,349
21,461
5,610
4,081

2,823
6,794
19,376
5,065
3,739

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

5,995
8,737
375
5,911
3,119

6,807
9,709
372
6,609
3,418

6,975
11,164
317
7,404
4,070

6,935
11,332
329
7,835
4,384

7,035
11,003
297
7,664
4,459

5,943
9,631
260
6,835
4,472

5,763
9,789
269
7,181
4,661

5,280
9,682
260
6,764
4,695

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

19,865
7,654
8,134
8,128
12,486

21,947
8,458
8,420
8,565
13,363

22,745
9,056
8,849
9,867
14,328

23,697
9,466
9,075
10,603
15,189

24,484
9,119
9,320
10,857
15,681

24,500
8,793
9,119
11,155
16,282

25,132
8,912
9,068
11,637
17,008

25,036
8,527
8,867
11,619
17,123

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

14,869
4,453
3,761
4,544
5,007

17,106
4,429
4,367
5,490
5,519

19,213
4,718
4,722
6,128
6,199

19,700
4,649
5,334
6,528
6,608

19,670
4,941
5,917
6,806
7,159

19,371
5,140
6,023
6,204
6,615

19,248
5,383
6,355
6,915
6,728

16,188
4,654
6,130
6,459
5,400

51.
52.
53.
54.
55

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

9,084
9,551
3,372
32,391
5,559

9,870
10,223
3,776
35,531
5,396

10,128
10,543
3,999
37,116
6,302

10,607
11,292
4,080
37,271
5,806

10,885
11,021
4,250
40,202
5,452

11,227
10,970
4,398
37,766
4,218

12,206
11,368
4,290
36,310
4,869

12,192
11,015
3,883
34,098
4,725




103

(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Historical
maustry
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic D roducts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

4,344
10,042
1,020
4,165
5,413

4,484
11,714
1,008
4,371
5,986

4,427
14,404
1,050
4,334
6,197

3,828
15,571
977
4,366
6,761

4,083
15,327
718
4,008
6,119

3,698
15,309
706
3,975
6,014

3,842
16,275
698
3,847
6,112

3,387
15,172
613
3,425
5,726

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related products..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

8,161
1,035
782
4,237
27,908

8,187
1,061
787
4,712
29,325

8,940
1,107
783
4,998
28,835

9,588
1,189
765
5,411
30,824

9,713
1,139
849
5,561
31,774

8,638
911
760
4,975
26,068

8,228
852
768
5,031
28,395

7,391
681
652
4,269
17,259

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

8,099
8,683
7,156
4,372
4,738

8,126
9,896
8,802
4,925
4,879

8,662
10,904
9,198
4,939
5,217

9,330
11,512
9,792
5,024
5,088

9,378
11,600
9,965
5,090
5,117

7,224
8,919
9,484
4,474
4,712

7,774
10,246
9,392
4,595
4,727

5,200
7,437
7,874
3,735
4,193

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

1,710
12,249
2,484
6,779
4,445

1,773
13,044
2,852
8,301
5,122

1,993
14,240
3,252
9,423
5,543

2,133
14,639
3,608
9,669
5,736

2,149
15,270
3,823
9,314
5,739

1,981
14,320
3,339
8,134
5,187

1,989
14,074
3,344
8,148
5,509

1,698
11,999
2,726
6,642
4,692

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and ge nerators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

9,262
5,395
7,061
9,788
2,664

10,174
5,976
7,107
9,276
2,601

11,179
6,574
7,434
10,079
3,096

11,876
7,046
7,006
11,660
3,474

12,348
6,897
8,404
11,191
3,741

11,049
6,094
7,426
10,953
3,661

11,239
5,888
7,175
11,321
3,785

9,247
4,539
5,531
8,667
2,898

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

7,464
5,788
8,759
4,861
8,915

7,376
5,758
8,917
4,915
11,115

8,030
5,556
9,802
5,244
13,938

8,827
5,916
10,251
5,776
18,112

9,397
5,960
10,883
6,117
23,460

9,405
5,808
10,604
5,947
24,790

9,212
5,852
10,683
5,990
27,966

7,855
4,747
8,666
4,859
26,861

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

1,635
6,301
4,720
5,171
6,182

1,758
7,948
4,822
5,715
6,927

2,216
8,791
5,569
6,061
7,758

2,362
9,714
6,159
6,662
7,865

2,493
9,919
6,572
6,886
8,163

2,887
10,482
6,273
6,572
7,396

3,256
11,825
6,449
6,757
7,473

3,127
11,358
5,164
5,411
6,484

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

4,222
4,185
3,736
9,758
7,849

5,000
4,952
3,608
10,168
10,262

5,347
6,087
4,852
11,229
13,030

5,481
6,922
5,284
12,835
15,232

5,990
6,751
6,490
14,882
19,344

5,912
6,436
6,779
15,543
19,913

6,107
6,625
7,063
16,195
20,378

5,795
5,873
7,321
16,787
20,411

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad equipm e nt.........................................................

4,024
57,191
17,951
5,156
2,978

4,740
74,443
16,276
5,231
2,385

5,856
85,632
16,774
5,362
2,659

6,104
89,095
18,646
5,358
3,209

6,010
81,577
22,798
5,338
4,150

5,435
60,571
24,286
5,187
3,938

5,951
62,355
24,034
5,245
1,929

5,607
55,982
22,478
4,648
983

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum en ts....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

553
3,084
3,969
3,069
1,318

559
3,673
4,270
3,182
1,484

692
3;693
5,190
3,277
1,804

782
3,948
5,655
3,510
2,292

785
3,381
5,553
3,786
2,434

707
2,733
5,567
3,796
2,379

519
3,016
5,630
3,839
2,369

400
3,027
5,408
3,688
2,252

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

6,099
938
2,241
3,608
4,709

6,874
1,142
2,564
4,000
5,002

7,345
1,111
2,890
4,399
5,662

8,233
1,217
2,803
4,506
5,748

9,089
939
2,577
4,598
5,682

8,634
893
2,489
4,439
5,454

8,418
870
2,655
4,736
5,561

7,903
817
2,346
4,184
4,864




104

D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued
{Millions of 1972 dollars)
Historical
inausiry
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transoortation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

14,705
6,068
28,913
6,706
14,514

15,478
6,145
32,492
7,163
15,351

16,105
6,188
35,328
8,250
16,435

16,541
6,316
38,324
7,974
18,457

17,486
6,559
39,991
8,994
20,268

16,425
6,452
35,762
8,866
19,054

15,482
6,254
35,457
9,212
17,094

14,118
5,986
33,644
8,941
16,129

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation services ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

1,722
1,630
4,977
39,494
35,836

1,749
1,973
4,962
42,765
38,357

1,854
2,058
5,401
46,858
40,958

1,990
2,020
5,408
51,640
42,819

2,065
2,097
5,377
55,863
44,366

1,997
2,193
5,605
61,007
44,860

1,967
2,259
5,579
64,560
45,114

1,863
2,139
5,638
64,797
43,356

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
18,428
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
2,853
Wholesale tra d e ............................................................... 105,719
Eating and drinking p la c e s................................ .............
52,420
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ...................... 118,161

18,456
2,857
109,329
55,776
126,017

18,016
2,925
114,656
57,450
134,508

18,573
2,946
123,286
57,906
140,638

19,242
3,025
127,172
58,850
143,396

19,449
3,229
122,949
58,266
142,208

19,562
3,380
129,409
58,908
143,986

18,801
3,412
126,283
59,414
142,314

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

30,111
14,939
39,226
88,657
114,341

31,063
14,281
46,558
93,656
118,250

33,343
17,380
46,907
99,043
124,780

35,362
20,332
48,899
104,576
131,196

37,255
21,067
49,359
110,031
138,791

38,110
23,693
55,613
114,385
144,271

37,165
26,042
55,501
116,605
147,469

37,539
27,397
55,451
118,426
147,317

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
Advertising.................... ....................................................

10,017
18,004
3,629
43,155
2,917

10,970
18,331
3,391
45,878
3,347

10,992
19,699
3,557
48,544
3,440

11,469
19,797
3,566
54,285
3,818

11,719
19,914
3,559
59,326
4,092

11,709
19,344
3,517
63,563
4,384

12,179
19,787
3,524
67,366
4,647

12,276
19,612
3,557
70,120
4,838

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

33,339
26,514
5,797
11,676
26,976

33,667
27,437
5,520
11,792
27,479

36,472
29,155
6,098
13,120
28,972

39,266
30,508
6,880
13,838
30,220

41,691
31,584
6,936
14,698
31,501

43,533
31,391
7,069
15,606
34,996

46,283
32,528
7,449
16,488
38,388

44,775
33,455
7,809
17,355
42,119

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

26,469
12,318
13,847
15,966
8,702

28,492
12,719
14,200
16,243
8,859

30,130
13,135
14,848
16,975
9,205

31,178
14,075
15,066
18,270
9,672

31,942
14,512
15,735
19,388
9,964

32,745
15,031
16,522
20,288
10,185

33,314
15,609
16,800
20,627
11,117

32,920
15,743
16,441
20,793
11,842

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit C orporation......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger transit ............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
2,721
1,511
8,522
0

0
3,276
1,496
8,531
0

0
3,179
1,624
8,561
0

0
3,363
1,885
8,830
0

0
3,444
1,821
9,434
0

0
3,307
1,827
9,675
0

0
3,346
1,951
10,341
0

0
3,314
2,074
10,998
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction industry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-wor!d indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
101,514
0
0
3,616
0

0
109,180
0
0
3,732
0

0
116,142
0
0
3,826
0

0
121,624
0
0
3,772
0

0
119,592
0
0
3,588
0

0
107,624
0
0
3,367
0

0
104,343
0
0
3,318
0

0
98,900
0
0
3,100
0




105

D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected
Industry

1990 alternatives

1995 alternatives

Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k .............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

14,306
37,017
2,456
28,099
21,360

14,734
37,487
2,464
28,676
21,890

14,874
37,659
2,495
28,921
22,145

14,209
37,497
2,460
29,950
22,453

14,908
38,108
2,472
30,367
22,997

15,109
38,328
2,518
30,623
23,310

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r..............

2,096
4,827
1,180
1,374
621

2,109
5,018
1,251
1,475
638

2,177
5,141
1,240
1,536
642

2,159
5,469
1,514
1,588
711

2,163
5,600
1,538
1,691
713

2,263
5,747
1,501
1,768
714

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

9,538
17,554
4,757
1,107
56,568

9,940
17,663
5,084
1,147
58,253

10,237
17,545
5,311
1,168
59,193

10,999
17,521
5,605
1,372
62,991

11,244
17,700
5,894
1,365
63,941

11,607
17,518
6,186
1,382
64,978

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

4,147
5,166
38,967
17,998
17,726

3,996
4,826
40,183
18,814
18,491

4,072
4,871
40,538
19,042
18,691

4,913
6,373
42,124
18,796
19,733

4,473
5,519
43,200
19,868
20,406

4,556
5,540
43,531
20,141
20,576

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S uga r..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

15,676
7,954
2,989
4,836
17,063

16,218
8,251
3,069
4,926
17,963

16,441
8,357
3,035
4,882
18,188

17,288
7,870
3,034
5,029
19,908

17,714
8,359
3,147
5,120
20,571

17,950
8,514
3,090
5,039
20,731

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

10,248
17,587
10,524
19,786
5,201

11,023
18,187
10,737
20,673
5,638

11,263
18,387
10,944
21,254
6,290

12,079
18,705
10,739
23,058
6,331

12,814
19,352
11,016
23,587
6,718

13,054
19,576
11,314
24,271
7,640

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill p roducts...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Lo gging..............................................................................

3,388
8,453
23,557
6,742
5,372

3,510
8,847
24,254
7,134
5,663

3,598
8,966
24,371
7.331
6,291

3,827
9,740
26,804
8,044
6,640

3,903
10,020
27,040
8,316
6,762

4,009
10,120
27,023
8,534
7,646

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

7,032
12,383
222
8,340
5,238

7,370
13,379
218
8,836
5,600

8,541
16,095
223
9,625
6,060

8,393
14,481
192
9,563
5,659

8,564
15,491
194
10,019
6,117

10,272
19,500
204
11,145
6,784

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

32,081
10,387
10,134
13,932
19,942

33,142
10,851
10,532
14,595
20,652

33,693
11,183
10,887
15,089
21,226

37,550
11,832
11,118
15,727
22,132

37,773
12,178
11,483
16,294
22,667

38,289
12,593
11,960
16,932
23,404

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

22,817
6,555
7,463
8,821
7,711

23,867
6,821
7,728
9,188
8,109

24,423
6,931
7,977
9,442
8,328

27,964
8,032
8,498
10,655
9,506

28,253
8,059
8,641
10,747
9,656

28,795
8,139
8,957
11,026
9,882

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products ................................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s.......................................................

18,960
13,763
4,845
‘ 37,450
5,182

20,125
14,433
5,141
38,440
5,306

20,494
14,838
5,452
39,142
5,359

24,214
15,896
5,593
40,053
5,537

24,656
16,385
5,860
40,920
5,637

24,901
16,867
6,285
41,820
5,695




106

0 -1 Qr@ss output by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected
1995 alternatives

1990 alternatives

Industry
Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

4,312
22,029
689
3,296
7,260

4,519
23,223
692
3,294
7,564

4,595
24,291
675
3,178
7,753

5,031
27,353
748
3,196
8,451

5,166
27,821
737
3,219
8,613

5,236
29,133
708
3,047
8,830

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related products..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

8,968
906
738
5,850
24,264

10,134
984
769
6,419
25,619

11,535
1,150
809
6,901
25,818

10,192
1,081
805
7,078
29,703

11,701
1,156
835
7,647
30,394

13,735
1,398
893
8,299
30,362

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p roducts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

7,246
10,419
11,002
4,838
5,218

7,714
11,384
11,575
5,042
5,475

7,986
11,947
11,903
5,199
5,576

8,835
12,734
13,431
5,694
6,014

9,149
13,639
13,689
5,789
6,207

9,466
14,341
14,042
5,976
6,310

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

2,184
15,848
3,366
9,045
6,223

2,378
18,295
3,515
9,768
6,600

2,757
20,247
3,567
10,183
7,001

2,561
18,836
3,863
10,910
7,412

2,767
21,891
3,966
11,553
7,690

3,319
24,626
4,013
12,063
8,227

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

13,389
8,214
8,019
12,791
3,907

14,480
8,731
8,440
13,608
4,274

15,119
8,970
8,947
14,227
4,565

16,605
11,068
9,950
15,993
4,691

17,470
11,126
10,101
16,431
5,060

18,236
11,322
10,761
17,180
5,450

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

10,066
6,122
12,080
6,514
47,301

10,664
6,315
12,622
6,833
50,390

11,350
6,533
13,108
7,089
54,140

11,783
7,189
14,730
7,798
63,171

12,269
7,211
14,882
7,961
63,830

13,205
7,481
15,467
8,273
68,623

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household appliance s.....................................................

4,334
14,143
7,306
8,321
9,827

4,575
14,817
7,782
8,770
10,374

4,847
15,993
8,329
9,220
11,142

5,271
16,305
8,970
10,580
12,422

5,403
16,792
9,278
10,689
12,596

5,760
18,453
10,009
11,243
13,615

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

6,952
10,745
10,113
24,630
38,857

7,495
11,665
10,886
24,212
41,146

7,934
12,137
11,850
24,751
42,765

7,850
14,527
12,281
30,720
53,180

8,466
14,973
12,922
28,453
52,990

9,070
15,463
14,255
28,979
54,633

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad e q uipm e nt.........................................................

7,776
76,099
27,393
6,591
1,902

8,195
85,001
26,184
6,535
2,109

8,621
87,563
26,311
6,551
2,279

9,460
91,719
31,209
8,099
2,615

9,673
101,577
28,300
7,613
2,752

10,221
104,330
28,345
7,561
2,967

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

628
3,852
7,228
5,129
3,497

682
4,534
7,543
5,454
3,688

740
5,456
7,923
5,753
3,866

806
4,493
8,641
6,248
4,463

843
5,395
8,762
6,463
4,508

921
6,746
9,258
6,850
4,723

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go ods......................
Other manufactured products........................................

12,198
1,128
2,918
5,322
6,492

12,864
1,147
3,040
5,489
6,742

13,369
1,278
3,262
5,664
6,923

15,532
1,369
3,362
6,206
7,757

15,698
1,336
3,436
6,234
7,815

16,271
1,523
3,749
6,450
8,016




107

D-1. Gross output by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of 1972 dollars)
Projected
Industry

1990 alternatives

1995 alternatives

Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transoortation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

17,123
6,651
43,339
9,918
25,309

17,845
6,885
45,429
10,109
26,772

18,704
7,214
47,492
10,412
27,582

19,455
7,167
50,867
10,677
32,437

19,974
7,398
52,161
10,777
32,852

21,139
7,866
54,845
11,193
33,662

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation services ..................................................
Radio arid television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

2,043
2,888
7,639
104,235
55,972

2,098
3,015
8,090
111,737
58,947

2,142
3,132
8,435
118,657
61,188

2,183
3,469
9,193
134,855
65,768

2,233
3,515
9,490
138,551
67,853

2,289
3,659
9,920
147,253
70,655

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ......................

16,664
3,896
150,689
66,122
177,273

16,469
4,049
157,220
69,579
189,086

16,643
4,244
165,795
71,580
201,955

15,004
4,271
169,638
71,330
204,416

15,136
4,412
174,891
75,385
215,802

15,497
4,686
186,772
78,040
233,620

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance.................................................................... ......
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

51,024
37,228
69,552
152,965
191,278

53,787
39,252
72,705
158,690
199,923

55,865
40,902
75,976
160,517
206,836

61,494
44,861
80,500
179,783
225,411

63,068
46,023
82,560
181,690
229,972

65,595
48,072
86,874
162,864
238,436

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodginq p la ce s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s..................................
Advertising........................................................................

16,693
22,318
3,833
106,806
5,376

17,392
23,114
3,938
113,156
5,566

17,883
23,944
4,081
117,910
5,762

20,123
24,419
4,040
135,291
5,793

20,314
25,115
4,150
137,739
5,982

20,860
26,244
4,354
143,283
6,252

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services .....................................

51,427
38,579
8,127
22,595
47,166

53,961
39,911
8,221
23,683
48,664

56,733
42,300
8,429
24,756
50,257

56,592
42,557
8,375
26,664
51,085

59,208
43,599
8,457
27,297
52,403

63,081
46,996
8,758
28,685
54,578

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

44,402
21,870
18,669
25,054
12,303

46,708
23,135
19,121
26,089
12,545

48,373
23,663
19,775
27,158
12,920

53,318
26,627
20,399
28,362
12,661

54,584
27,358
20,652
29,114
12,947

56,578
27,869
21,545
30,538
13,493

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger transit ............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
4,494
2,057
11,540
0

0
4,757
2,097
11,865
0

0
4,968
2,185
12,393
0

0
5,410
2,043
11,961
0

0
5,581
2,109
12,360
0

0
5,847
2,243
13,134
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry................... .................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
117,033
0
0
2,848
0

0
140,215
0
0
2,890
0

0
165,954
0
0
3,023
0

0
131,112
0
0
2,653
0

0
163,815
0
0
2,769
0

0
201,555
0
0
2,981
0




108

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95
(Thousands of jobs)
Historical
maustry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k.............................................
C o tto rt...................................... ...........................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

1,635
939
469
1,022
1,445

1,551
979
565
960
1,436

1,471
937
523
942
1,424

1,406
924
485
830
1,430

1,318
896
426
794
1,411

1,210
873
401
775
1,356

1,147
859
361
742
1,335

1,132
852
322
727
1,232

1,019
816
200
676
1,163

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore mining ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

59
273
37
28
31

60
285
33
23
31

60
292
38
28
31

61
295
32
29
29

60
296
30
29
26

62
300
28
28
27

62
306
29
27
26

62
313
31
30
26

64
313
30
32
27

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

218
206
101
18
620

201
200
105
19
662

189
192
107
20
681

164
185
105
19
668

155
182
103
19
702

152
178
102
19
717

150
174
102
18
730

144
170
105
19
744

140
167
104
21
767

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

49
58
326
327
241

50
94
324
326
249

52
110
331
325
249

58
131
327
319
253

70
142
324
312
259

73
148
323
302
255

64
142
323
298
257

59
133
325
295
263

90
137
331
285
279

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

137
314
31
80
107

139
313
38
79
107

136
313
36
79
105

137
308
36
78
101

135
304
36
76
98

135
301
36
78
97

133
303
38
78
95

132
299
36
78
98

133
292
36
83
97

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Fioor covering m ills ..........................................................

108
141
94
612
36

111
144
95
619
39

115
145
94
605
39

115
143
91
581
37

117
144
90
583
38

119
144
89
572
39

124
143
90
575
40

127
144
87
587
42

136
145
84
611
45

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Lo gging..............................................................................

69
208
1,057
132
135

74
221
1,100
143
143

70
216
1,104
147
141

66
215
1,085
148
136

67
221
1,129
152
133

67
214
1,144
156
132

68
216
1,159
160
137

73
230
1,204
167
133

78
236
1,243
175
129

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

287
240
43
242
118

305
261
43
259
124

288
250
42
255
128

258
245
38
244
124

256
257
37
257
127

254
264
36
260
128

253
275
35
273
130

249
288
34
288
139

246
300
36
307
150

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

401
166
323
153
437

415
175
328
156
446

427
178
335
160
459

425
179
336
163
462

430
188
338
162
468

431
191
339
164
470

434
194
346
169
479

442
201
355
175
491

460
210
360
184
513

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.......... .......................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

260
53
80
77
76

260
54
82
81
79

267
54
82
84
81

264
55
82
83
82

264
57
84
89
88

265
60
83
93
94

270
60
80
94
100

289
62
83
97
110

281
64
96
102
118

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s.......................................................

105
86
61
225
104

106
89
62
217
105

110
91
63
213
105

109
95
62
203
98

111
96
63
196
99

113
98
63
190
97

114
101
64
185
99

119
106
66
184
102

128
109
67
185
107

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

See footnotes at end of table.




109

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958=95—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Historical
inausiry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts.................................................... ............
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r............................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

169
75
37
325
143

178
94
36
341
153

175
103
34
333
158

170
111
32
329
155

176
137
32
332
159

172
153
31
321
161

170
171
31
319
164

171
202
32
324
170

170
237
32
335
179

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

191
74
46
118
602

209
78
49
125
588

210
76
48
123
652

206
70
44
118
597

209
68
44
122
594

213
69
44
124
591

218
69
44
129
630

222
70
44
132
658

223
70
44
139
653

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

248
132
100
75
75

269
137
111
78
75

260
135
109
77
75

239
132
105
71
73

249
139
112
74
74

255
137
116
74
73

271
137
120
78
75

288
143
128
85
74

309
155
141
94
79

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

68
354
79
172
125

71
344
88
189
135

68
351
88
196
135

63
344
83
178
128

65
343
89
191
136

67
351
90
195
139

71
365
91
200
144

70
386
99
222
155

71
408
108
237
162

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and genera tors.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

216
90
119
145
62

231
90
128
162
65

234
86
118
157
65

228
79
115
142
60

241
84
118
149
64

246
85
126
152
67

255
87
132
164
73

274
91
142
177
80

297
99
154
191
88

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m a chinery.............................................
Genera! industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

237
161
204
151
107

251
164
221
166
111

268
168
227
176
116

254
162
217
175
120

265
171
229
183
124

273
172
234
185
127

289
181
243
192
135

310
193
261
205
148

343
205
285
232
168

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

27
90
147
156
148

28
97
157
176
157

31
100
164
181
155

33
95
163
177
148

36
101
166
183
150

37
102
162
177
156

39
106
162
178
160

45
114
170
192
165

51
125
190
214
180

91.
92.
93.
94.
95,

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

121
105
101
209
179

134
114
105
252
213

137
108
114
289
233

136
104
113
313
243

143
111
118
352
266

149
114
104
357
263

158
120
103
328
265

173
134
116
324
307

196
163
128
365
389

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad eq uipm ent.........................................................

102
610
772
152
41

111
696
722
151
41

112
728
629
146
43

106
636
611
148
35

108
696
639
146
41

104
745
640
147
44

99
757
606
150
50

106
847
625
165
56

116
866
754
183
61

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

8
18
152
44
81

9
23
166
45
85

8
21
170
47
84

8
19
165
48
76

9
23
169
50
73

10
30
169
53
65

10
38
167
54
60

11
43
172
56
60

12
49
189
62
64

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

68
27
67
111
219

69
30
67
116
229

70
29
66
120
228

70
27
64
117
221

73
29
64
123
227

74
31
63
123
224

78
31
66
127
229

85
33
67
141
236

98
36
71
144
242

See footnotes at end of table.




110

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95--Continued
(Thousands of jobs)

inaustry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

961
314
933
229
170

930
311
1,001
239
184

890
314
1,016
236
196

822
308
1,007
228
202

801
301
1,043
224
202

777
299
1,058
223
207

761
297
1,075
232
218

740
299
1,120
231
234

731
300
1,157
241
253

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation services ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and private................................

26
65
88
774
433

24
70
90
749
430

23
75
93
748
428

22
76
95
736
426

22
79
96
730
421

21
79
100
726
421

20
83
104
746
423

19
85
108
775
431

19
92
115
816
435

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

213
59
3,242
1,880
7,711

215
61
3,349
1,960
7,936

216
64
3,414
2,016
8,114

218
67
3,408
2,032
8,080

216
68
3,465
2,079
8,150

215
69
3,511
2,100
8,261

214
72
3,604
2,205
8,473

214
74
3,732
2,344
8,760

213
77
3,856
2,465
8,991

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

621
360
1,128
0
737

644
389
1,137
0
753

677
417
1,160
0
750

697
442
1,180
0
749

719
458
1,194
0
759

745
470
1,217
0
768

770
488
1,242
0
784

796
504
1,253
0
795

829
525
1,270
0
794

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging places..............................................
Personal and repair se rv ic e s .........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

843
1,138
523
750
117

868
1,157
538
814
121

891
1,165
550
855
124

908
1,168
563
896
122

917
1,167
566
967
123

923
1,166
572
1,031
124

957
1,185
591
1,115
125

980
1,204
608
1,201
128

995
1,212
618
1,315
129

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s..........................
Doctors’ and dentists' s e rv ic e s.....................................

727
402
232
354
587

746
422
228
372
605

768
439
224
390
623

784
445
220
399
642

801
456
211
425
655

817
470
210
428
652

840
487
210
447
676

867
500
218
454
702

899
505
220
470
726

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

915
284
806
1,133
563

974
303
839
1,331
574

1,038
323
863
1,375
587

1,095
345
890
1,441
597

1,153
363
937
1,473
597

1,224
385
969
1,497
598

1,302
414
1,013
1,514
600

1,364
442
1,048
1,530
614

1,427
469
1,083
1,573
681

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable im p o rts .................................................

0
78
71
208
0

0
104
71
225
0

0
111
71
251
0

0
117
71
260
0

0
128
69
277
0

0
132
72
301
0

0
136
78
307
0

0
142
77
323
0

0
147
78
316
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction in d u s try ..................................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
3,002
0
0
2,549
0

0
3,163
0
0
2,574
0

0
3,087
0
0
2,554
0

0
3,122
0
0
2,656
0

0
3,055
0
0
2,694
0

0
3,082
0
0
2,656
0

0
3,172
0
0
2,683
0

0
3,293
0
0
2,604
0

0
3,338
0
0
2,561
0

See footnotes at end of table.




Ill

0 -2. Total ©mpl©ym©nt1 by industry, 1958»
95—Continu@d
(Thousands of jobs)
Historical
iriuusiry
1967
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s.......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

950
805
156
698
1,160

892
794
175
669
1,132

813
756
172
635
1,119

765
742
157
589
1,047

717
715
148
602
1,012

724
733
165
590
1,057

668
697
131
608
1,116

639
695
132
634
1,151

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in o .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

63
313
30
25
27

53
323
28
28
26

55
329
30
34
25

63
323
30
37
27

72
347
29
34
25

58
386
26
37
21

56
404
28
40
20

54
438
30
44
22

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and ciay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

142
163
103
21
746

135
161
100
13
740

138
157
99
18
792

147
156
101
16
832

148
156
99
18
810

163
152
100
19
863

164
149
101
19
852

182
154
105
21
935

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

144
135
337
277
281

170
129
340
268
283

175
107
344
260
291

130
84
348
251
288

92
74
349
235
288

89
76
351
224
305

88
78
340
212
300

81
80
348
206
300

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

137
291
35
85
99

136
290
37
85
96

137
286
36
87
97

139
281
36
84
96

137
271
36
82
93

137
263
37
80
91

140
255
37
82
90

142
247
35
78
89

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

138
145
86
608
47

138
147
85
617
51

142
151
83
616
58

142
153
83
600
58

139
149
77
572
60

137
143
75
584
63

139
146
78
603
66

137
148
77
578
64

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

77
232
1,235
178
127

81
249
1,237
181
131

82
251
1,244
182
138

74
250
1,213
169
124

71
256
1,190
169
120

73
268
1,217
181
124

75
269
1,257
195
132

76
252
1,197
176
137

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

237
288
38
298
152

232
293
37
310
148

230
310
36
316
153

215
301
33
300
147

216
324
29
312
141

225
347
28
337
154

229
358
27
352
164

231
337
25
334
168

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard................... .....................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

467
215
364
199
523

471
223
366
205
534

483
231
376
210
550

483
225
382
209
549

467
217
381
197
532

470
220
390
197
544

480
225
398
200
562

487
219
392
204
565

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

291
67
113
103
116

292
67
120
106
125

296
65
124
108
132

297
64
112
106
127

287
58
98
103
122

278
56
96
105
124

284
60
98
109
133

292
64
98
111
137

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

135
112
68
184
101

138
117
71
188
113

143
123
72
182
119

150
127
70
191
116

156
123
67
195
119

160
122
69
196
122

163
127
69
194
131

168
126
67
198
137

See footnotes at end of table.




112

0-2. T@ta! ©mpS©ym©Bit1 by Industry, 195S“@i—C©ntsnued
(Thousands of jobs)
Historical
muusiry
1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

56.
57.
58.
59.
SO.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le ather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r....................... ......
G la s s ...................................................................................

164
255
30
324
176

165
286
31
328
177

162
320
29
316
188

153
314
27
299
186

155
309
26
277
181

169
344
25
273
194

178
385
24
264
205

174
387
22
250
200

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u c ts ..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

217
65
43
137
636

221
65
44
137
637

228
64
45
140
644

226
59
45
138
627

232
57
43
140
574

245
57
45
143
&8

260
59
48
155
605

250
57
51
160
610

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copoer and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

307
149
144
87
81

300
145
144
91
83

312
160
153
93
87

299
157
144
87
90

286
150
137
78
86

292
158
140
75
85

316
168
154
80
87

329
169
160
84
88

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings......................... ......................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

70
414
111
234
162

72
421
112
247
164

76
440
114
255
165

71
435
105
235
151

67
429
92
230
151

71
449
101
235
163

74
489
111
247
178

71
500
114
228
176

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts....................................
Engines, turbines, and ge nerators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

301
104
155
188
89

303
110
147
192
90

315
112
141
202
95

300
111
133
205
93

286
115
126
196
84

317
116
135
205
89

337
123
155
225
100

340
126
170
241
107

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral eq uipm e nt...........................

358
205
290
242
184

348
199
282
234
202

347
206
291
246
224

324
197
285
234
236

278
176
■261
•201
219

292
177
267
214
212

326
194
292
235
235

344
205
309
255
252

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment ............ ...........
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus................................. ........
Household a p pliance s.....................................................

56
129
200
218
175

49
136
205
213
179

52
147
207
223
187

53
149
204
217
184

45
145
187
198
179

49
164
185
209
187

50
183
201
239
198

54
175
204
245
196

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

200
157
130
409
385

201
154
132
419
381

205
156
146
409
394

197
133
164
362
367

189
130
163
307
329

204
140
160
299
355

223
153
166
302
411

217
139
165
311
421

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad equipm ent.........................................................

119
820
835
181
56

124
876
854
189
47

125
912
805
193
51

123
801
670
177
51

125
850
534
181
51

135
877
513
196
49

147
977
540
204
52

145
909
554
209
57

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ......................... ..........
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instruments ....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

12
52
194
68
70

14
69
195
74
74

14
89
195
82
75

15
93
181
83
70

15
114
166
84
65

19
141
168
90
57

20
145
177
100
64

19
99
187
111
66

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

105
36
73
139
238

107
36
75
144
234

111
35
78
149
233

113
33
74
140
238

112
28
70
139
225

118
30
80
151
226

125
33
83
161
230

130
33
85
163
230

See footnotes at end of table.




113

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Historical
muusuy
1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

702
307
1,167
244
303

670
309
1,191
242
334

651
315
1,214
234
357

636
321
1,225
217
356

607
312
1,230
197
351

583
304
1,275
219
354

580
311
1,338
205
368

592
311
1,345
208
373

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and te le visio n ..............
Electric utilities, public and p riv a te ................................

19
101
121
851
445

19
102
125
860
452

18
111
131
919
460

18
114
139
993
481

17
125
144
1,001
495

17
124
144
1,010
508

17
126
146
1,038
521

17
133
150
1,054
533

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

217
79
3,941
2,528
9,143

219
82
4,007
2,646
9,388

220
88
4,163
2,812
9,729

221
95
4,250
2,938
9,872

215
85
4,264
3,055
10,113

216
83
4,356
3,194
10,437

219
85
4,538
3,383
10,725

219
88
4,701
3,597
10,760

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

874
549
1,314
0
796

920
600
1,345
0
816

987
652
1,370
0
855

1,049
636
1,411
0
881

1,074
637
1,429
0
947

1,116
684
1,461
0
1,028

1,178
710
1,492
0
1,074

1,249
708
1,509
0
1,095

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair se rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

999
1,205
622
1,427
131

1,002
1,216
630
1,532
132

1,065
1,232
634
1,691
134

1,079
1,193
621
1,756
135

1,111
1,130
604
1,793
137

1,206
1,139
590
1,917
137

1,248
1,146
581
2,081
143

1,306
1,165
572
2,202
137

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

927
508
225
468
744

968
525
232
483
776

1,046
569
248
497
806

1,101
576
245
515
815

1,144
577
236
544
897

1,201
589
247
566
942

1,250
611
260
599
991

1,334
622
263
619
1,045

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except h o s p ita ls ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

1,561
535
1,124
1,646
714

1,658
604
1,185
1,717
724

1,776
672
1,229
1,764
732

1,871
733
1,240
1,784
736

1,939
813
1,260
1,825
726

1,983
871
1,305
1,772
698

2,053
973
1,330
1,787
693

2,162
1,048
1,389
1,829
705

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terprises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
151
81
314
0

0
150
88
332
0

0
152
87
351
0

0
166
92
366
0

0
161
93
394
0

0
161
100
388
0

0
163
100
418
0

0
163
112
451
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction industry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
3,268
0
0
2,484
0

0
3,399
0
0
2,437
0

0
3,594
0
0
2,322
0

0
3,555
0
0
2,280
0

0
3,706
0
0
2,238
0

0
3,861
0
0
2,200
0

0
4,160
0
0
2,097
0

0
4,096
0
0
1,916
0

See footnotes at end of table.




114

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)

industry
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

591
634
76
638
1,191

552
605
81
638
1,135

521
584
77
617
1,151

510
584
62
619
1,219

463
544
60
602
1,192

436
533
62
612
1,217

434
530
62
609
1,210

429
524
61
603
1,198

6. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r..............

51
393
30
39
26

69
423
31
37
27

82
411
25
34
33

90
449
29
30
36

83
489
31
33
38

88
499
27
30
43

83
500
26
36
43

84
585
16
25
34

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

215
169
96
23
1,010

226
180
96
23
1,006

227
185
96
23
1,079

211
200
99
24
1,188

261
212
104
25
1,224

247
246
103
27
1,538

225
285
95
27
1,509

242
311
90
24
1,424

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

75
79
340
201
289

69
70
352
200
303

69
66
359
192
301

70
75
361
190
309

73
81
363
189
316

74
88
363
180
312

81
96
361
174
297

79
105
352
171
293

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

139
239
37
73
89

139
244
39
74
82

146
241
34
78
85

147
242
33
78
87

147
238
31
80
86

148
233
30
76
84

142
229
31
75
87

135
227
29
73
87

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

133
148
75
524
55

140
148
77
565
58

144
158
71
548
61

149
157
71
536
64

153
160
70
531
61

150
160
69
510
55

147
160
70
491
53

145
152
68
442
49

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

67
226
1,097
162
117

70
231
1,156
183
139

71
234
1,148
185
140

71
239
1,150
197
134

71
227
1,125
198
150

67
221
1,101
186
151

66
221
1,080
183
138

60
205
1,009
171
126

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

202
294
22
284
143

221
327
21
306
146

228
355
21
315
168

233
392
20
332
175

237
394
19
329
176

215
363
17
301
177

203
351
17
298
184

179
317
15
270
180

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

448
194
389
205
544

470
206
395
208
549

484
210
411
217
571

486
214
420
224
607

494
214
432
230
640

488
205
441
238
656

487
201
443
246
664

475
189
445
248
668

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

292
65
89
98
121

304
68
90
99
120

321
68
95
98
117

326
67
96
99
115

328
70
99
100
112

330
72
100
95
110

336
70
100
93
103

329
65
95
89
97

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

167
122
62
194
124

171
128
65
198
104

181
131
66
202
130

187
137
69
208
127

193
140
69
210
127

196
143
65
198
115

199
148
63
214
108

199
147
62
202
105

See footnotes at end of table.




115

'

0=2. T©&a! employment1 by industry, 1958=95—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Historical
muusiry
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

149
339
22
232
182

154
386
23
242
194

161
427
23
238
201

165
467
22
242
206

167
494
20
232
202

152
467
19
215
191

151
484
20
220
188

140
460
19
206
173

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

225
48
46
139
548

225
48
48
141
549

234
50
49
148
554

245
51
50
160
560

255
52
52
165
571

239
46
49
151
512

227
42
45
150
507

209
34
40
132
394

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

302
141
132
74
79

295
145
143
80
78

302
147
150
84
78

313
151
162
90
79

324
161
170
93
80

280
150
162
91
75

272
149
159
89
71

221
135
140
80
64

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal p roducts.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

61
463
93
192
155

63
466
95
220
168

69
483
101
239
177

74
511
110
249
184

76
535
117
245
185

70
522
110
212
166

68
515
105
206
161

61
461
92
187
143

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and ge nera tors.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

307
120
162
251
91

326
121
163
248
88

342
125
168
257
94

362
137
166
275
98

376
145
184
276
106

359
135
170
283
108

361
133
156
302
102

331
113
139
254
87

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking machinery..................................................
Special industry m a chinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

315
184
290
248
238

315
183
286
246
239

335
190
295
256
262

353
197
313
281
297

379
205
329
313
339

381
207
324
322
376

371
198
323
315
407

319
176
288
292
428

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission e q uipm e nt....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

49
144
174
212
161

48
160
180
222
170

49
171
190
233
180

53
184
206
245
185

59
188
221
251
178

58
174
224
240
163

54
175
227
239
161

47
159
215
206
142

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu s .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

181
113
148
310
338

196
121
137
308
366

205
125
147
315
405

218
123
155
337
457

225
116
165
357
525

209
109
164
378
554

202
107
157
399
557

187
93
148
424
561

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad equipm e nt.........................................................

131
793
528
198
57

144
882
503
219
50

154
949
500
230
56

172
1,006
546
230
64

176
991
632
230
74

159
791
676
223
71

157
791
672
236
54

153
707
629
223
37

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum en ts....................................
Optical and ophthalmic e q uipm e nt...............................

15
86
171
109
60

17
102
175
119
66

18
108
‘190
128
72

21
119
200
136
75

20
103
215
144
81

18
74
221
156
79

17
73
235
160
80

14
74
226
158
77

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

121
30
82
139
216

125
31
91
145
217

130
30
93
145
235

132
30
98
146
253

134
28
92
145
245

135
23
82
139
226

137
21
80
138
227

140
18
76
130
218

See footnotes at end of table.




116

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Historical
industry
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation........................................ .....................

550
302
1,283
196
368

541
301
1,321
200
378

550
291
1,405
200
390

544
291
1,503
212
412

559
303
1,555
222
443

534
312
1,497
216
461

498
312
1,479
223
463

433
314
1,454
206
450

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

17
139
157
1,022
526

18
143
162
1,010
531

19
156
170
1,018
550

20
176
181
1,061
581

20
198
191
1,121
608

21
209
203
1,159
640

22
218
211
1,186
665

22
224
221
1,199
684

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and d rin k in g ......................

217
84
4,661
3,689
10,779

213
87
4,849
3,941
10,994

212
88
4,995
4,257
11,362

217
93
5,240
4,576
11,821

220
94
5,507
4,864
11,981

221
105
5,597
4,948
11,948

227
107
5,674
5,077
11,933

230
106
5,585
5,159
11,792

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

1,275
711
1,544
0
1,054

1,310
738
1,555
0
1,073

1,357
785
1,612
0
1,145

1,423
840
1,699
0
1,267

1,498
901
1,750
0
1,374

1,572
952
1,794
0
1,384

1,629
1,003
1,845
0
1,345

1,655
1,038
1,870
0
1,336

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair se rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

1,319
1,161
550
2,254
137

1,363
1,158
578
2,418
138

1,455
1,183
597
2,609
145

1,476
1,192
621
2,892
155

1,549
1,239
632
3,178
165

1,571
1,244
628
3,404
172

1,648
1,293
622
3,640
183

1,693
1,305
624
3,743
186

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ se rv ic e s .....................................

1,421
643
264
653
1,120

1,414
690
273
693
1,164

1,550
733
287
721
1,213

1,691
787
293
764
1,277

1,814
839
311
769
1,351

1,930
845
291
832
1,408

2,056
876
312
854
1,454

2,147
910
310
870
1,503

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private).................................... .
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

2,277
1,102
1,427
1,864
697

2,366
1,182
1,477
1,922
671

2,468
1,270
1,566
1,944
654

2,541
1,359
1,662
1,999
649

2,614
1,431
1,721
2,073
661

2,754
1,517
1,772
2,142
661

2,908
1,589
1,828
2,103
661

3,016
1,664
1,882
2,095
662

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terprises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable im p o rts .................................................

0
151
112
502
0

0
149
122
494
0

0
147
123
496
0

0
149
127
514
0

0
155
130
541
0

0
153
172
515
0

0
150
175
507
0

0
150
173
496
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-wor!d indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
3,494
0
0
1,876
0

0
3,635
0
0
1,881
0

0
3,935
0
0
1,936
0

0
4,382
0
0
1,898
0

0
4,679
0
0
1,723
0

0
4,327
0
0
1,598
0

0
4,280
0
0
1,606
0

0
4,067
0
0
1,635
0

See footnotes at end of table.




117

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Projected
Industry

1995 alternatives

1990 alternatives
Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k .............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

378
474
55
585
1,138

384
473
54
589
1,151

387
475
55
593
1,162

344
439
50
571
1,096

360
445
50
577
1,118

367
450
51
585
1,141

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

73
640
25
27
34

79
623
25
27
34

89
613
22
26
33

96
704
25
33
35

92
711
26
35
34

99
716
23
36
34

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except drillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

299
275
85
31
1,778

286
291
87
31
1,700

275
282
92
31
1,685

310
332
72
35
1,861

317
338
77
35
1,882

322
307
87
35
1,912

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

90
130
359
137
331

87
130
357
144
335

88
127
359
156
341

88
149
368
119
336

85
140
372
127
341

90
143
380
131
353

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

143
203
30
77
83

145
210
30
78
86

145
209
31
80
85

140
164
27
69
76

144
174
28
71
80

147
177
30
76
83

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco manufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

164
171
61
448
52

168
171
62
461
56

169
168
64
457
63

159
177
50
471
57

167
182
52
474
58

171
182
58
482
62

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill p roducts...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ....................................... ............
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Lo gging..............................................................................

69
207
1,056
220
130

72
218
1,074
223
131

75
218
1,061
228
133

65
224
1,117
234
124

67
236
1,125
238
128

74
240
1,093
243
130

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood products..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

192
400
12
334
193

196
406
12
346
199

210
416
13
368
205

206
414
10
346
200

209
419
11
357
206

215
427
12
392
208

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

513
190
492
296
733

516
201
494
298
758

524
209
491
304
751

526
179
517
330
745

533
192
535
338
789

551
208
543
344
803

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

362
81
107
110
110

358
84
111
114
116

353
84
121
119
124

371
82
116
113
121

379
88
120
116
124

381
93
121
124
134

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

253
166
68
185
100

254
168
71
183
102

252
166
72
182
104

276
167
65
179
101

281
176
70
182
104

284
178
73
183
108

See footnotes at end of table.




118

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Thousands of jobs)
Projected
1995 alternatives

1990 alternatives

Industry
Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

147
565
15
166
198

151
636
16
170
201

157
653
16
172
205

146
654
11
147
211

150
716
12
154
212

159
741
14
144
214

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

222
35
44
156
420

240
37
45
164
435

250
39
46
173
430

215
29
46
175
433

240
30
49
182
447

257
33
50
191
444

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p roducts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

247
157
167
83
67

255
160
174
84
69

258
164
175
86
70

264
166
168
83
61

270
170
178
85
62

275
178
183
90
66

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

72
537
112
234
177

73
572
115
249
184

80
598
117
253
188

77
563
118
236
198

78
619
121
252
200

88
664
122
259
204

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

388
151
164
315
110

414
152
170
321
113

413
152
173
325
120

399
165
167
343
123

430
167
172
357
125

436
170
178
368
136

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

371
206
336
323
586

388
207
342
331
586

393
211
343
341
593

373
210
350
339
665

400
213
356
345
694

415
221
362
362
706

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household a p pliance s.....................................................

55
190
235
255
175

60
199
245
261
183

64
211
246
275
193

67
208
246
284
185

69
214
256
288
188

73
232
263
313
202

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

229
95
177
452
725

239
106
185
433
745

246
110
199
440
793

251
106
208
532
862

253
113
209
460
850

253
116
230
463
855

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad equipm e nt.........................................................

162
794
716
260
45

170
834
680
254
47

180
828
664
248
47

192
847
761
277
47

194
860
709
270
50

209
871
701
263
52

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic eq uipm e nt...............................

17
87
294
205
83

18
96
292
203
86

19
108
292
210
89

19
104
345
270
88

20
109
349
272
92

21
121
359
274
98

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

167
22
75
134
210

169
22
82
140
214

173
23
88
144
224

175
23
96
143
216

177
21
98
146
218

184
22
109
150
238

See footnotes at end of table.




119

D-2. Total employment1 by industry, 1958=®5“
=C©ntonu©d
(Thousands of jobs)
Projected
1995 alternatives

1990 alternatives

Industry
Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

353
345
1,720
197
522

373
341
1,701
210
532

429
345
1,702
214
528

327
350
1,750
204
561

351
361
1,774
214
568

377
385
1,793
216
573

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

22
261
301
1,384
686

24
269
308
1,379
712

25
250
292
1,434
714

24
295
355
1,543
730

24
302
357
1,593
740

27
302
359
1,603
746

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

220
140
6,162
5,908
13,815

218
133
6,298
5,951
14,106

219
135
6,387
5,959
14,303

205
144
6,622
6,669
14,473

207
147
6,734
6,742
15,070

211
154
6,745
6,772
15,342

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

1,954
1,313
2,187
0
1,567

1,954
1,350
2,163
0
1,640

1,968
1,364
2,168
0
1,168

2,098
1,507
2,237
0
1,764

2,120
1,518
2,272
0
1,774

2,146
1,549
2,307
0
1,787

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s ..................................
Advertising........................................................................

1,914
1,466
652
4,951
213

1,915
1,519
660
5,172
218

1,891
1,621
685
5,331
221

2,004
1,547
707
6,148
228

2,010
1,592
733
6,183
234

2,034
1,734
760
6,229
238

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s ............................
Automobile repair ............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

2,573
965
325
1,035
1,876

2,640
1,029
315
1,059
1,897

2,620
1,101
316
1,082
2,036

2,916
1,113
323
1,173
1,971

3,004
1,141
326
1,193
2,005

3,099
1,186
337
1,248
2,095

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

3,895
2,089
2,447
2,387
629

3,963
2,208
2,157
2,406
597

3,889
2,279
2,001
2,449
595

4,471
2,649
2,311
2,455
537

4,477
2,688
2,396
2,505
581

4,665
2,744
2,411
2,606
594

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
182
207
610
0

0
178
209
623
0

0
182
215
649
0

0
182
228
700
0

0
189
233
723
0

0
198
251
781
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
5,242
0
0
1,443
0

0
5,263
0
0
1,400
0

0
5,366
0
0
1,392
0

0
5,936
0
0
1,295
0

0
6,043
0
0
1,346
0

0
6,091
0
0
1,368
0

1 Total employment includes wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family workers.




120

(Millions of hours)
Historical
inausiry
1958
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat anirpals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

3,829
2,199
1,099
2,394
3,385

3,649
2,303
1,329
2,259
3,379

3,461
2,205
1,231
2,216
3,350

3,268
2,148
1,127
1,929
3,324

3,110
2,115
1,005
1,874
3,330

2,872
2,072
952
1,840
3,219

2,674
2,002
841
1,730
3,112

2,678
2,016
762
1,720
2,915

2,404
1,925
472
1,595
2,745

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m inin g.......................................
9. Copper ore mining ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

113
527
69
57
69

117
550
63
52
68

116
566
80
65
68

120
572
65
66
66

118
580
63
63
60

117
569
58
62
59

118
588
60
60
58

118
597
66
68
56

122
599
66
72
60

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

384
446
226
40
1,186

376
435
241
43
1,273

356
414
242
45
1,299

313
404
238
42
1,282

300
396
235
43
1,351

307
389
234
43
1,390

306
381
237
41
1,413

301
374
245
44
1,446

295
365
244
49
1,500

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space vehicles .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

102
123
684
703
487

105
199
692
699
498

109
231
698
695
497

121
276
694
684
503

148
298
682
665
521

154
310
689
645
513

133
295
692
633
519

126
281
694
626
538

195
290
705
608
572

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery p ro d u c ts ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

306
655
69
164
219

311
652
84
164
221

306
652
80
162
216

309
643
81
162
208

307
638
78
159
203

304
629
30
162
201

301
633
82
161
197

301
626
79
161
204

304
612
78
171
203

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yam, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

224
303
192
1,241
75

233
313
192
1,318
83

239
313
187
1,262
81

239
309
183
1,221
78

243
312
181
1,249
83

249
310
178
1,225
84

260
307
182
1,248
86

266
311
172
1,297
94

282
311
170
1,357
98

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit g o o d s ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Lo gging..............................................................................

141
408
1,944
264
272

155
445
2,086
289
293

146
427
2,048
293
289

137
429
2,007
295
291

141
443
2,138
305
290

143
427
2,157
315
282

145
433
2,172
324
299

158
466
2,285
340
298

171
477
2,365
353
292

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u c ts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

575
509
87
497
248

631
561
91
547
269

587
532
86
525
278

525
527
79
505
266

524
555
76
542
275

527
574
75
553
275

528
598
72
583
283

525
628
73
617
307

518
652
78
652
334

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

871
352
641
310
896

920
376
650
313
931

933
377
666
324
952

934
384
664
330
955

945
404
667
327
974

953
408
669
335
969

959
419
684
346
992

982
435
700
360
1,021

1,026
459
713
380
1,071

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

544
115
167
163
156

551
118
174
174
165

566
117
175
179
170

561
120
174
178
171

561
124
179
190
186

562
132
176
199
198

571
131
172
203
212

572
135
177
212
233

601
140
205
224
247

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

219
177
127
473
210

221
185
131
457
223

228
190
132
449
214

228
198
129
429
201

234
202
131
417
209

237
205
132
403
203

237
211
135
394
212

249
221
140
394
227

267
231
142
398
239




121

D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95=-Continued
(Millions of hours)
Historical
muusiry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le ather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

346
157
75
622
291

378
201
74
673
320

363
217
69
642
328

356
237
66
641
321

372
292
66
651
330

361
328
65
626
334

358
367
66
629
346

364
434
67
644
361

364
508
67
673
383

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

414
153
88
248
1,188

461
164
98
271
1,217

452
160
96
261
1,300

446
148
89
252
1,210

457
144
92
258
1,212

473
147
91
264
1,232

483
148
92
279
1,341

495
150
93
285
1,400

497
149
93
299
1,383

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and p roducts......................
Metal containers...............................................................

491
273
209
157
160

560
295
235
170
163

528
284
228
163
160

488
281
224
153
157

524
299
239
160
160

550
297
250
161
159

594
300
257
166
164

643
318
277
184
164

683
348
309
208
175

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

141
741
163
359
256

148
721
192
409
284

138
740
186
422
281

130
725
176
376
264

134
726
194
411
286

139
746
196
424
293

148
780
201
440
307

146
830
222
493
332

148
886
246
525
346

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

449
186
250
295
128

490
188
268
344
137

490
178
248
325
137

480
164
241
297
126

514
175
251
314
137

524
179
264
321
145

544
183
283
350
159

590
195
304
384
175

643
216
332
415
195

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery........... „ .....................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral eq uipm e nt...........................

495
333
418
328
221

551
351
469
372
233

587
360
472
385
245

546
345
453
374
258

590
369
485
407
261

606
370
495
411
271

656
394
523
422
290

713
424
568
452
326

801
456
629
522
371

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office e q uipm e nt.......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household ap pliance s.....................................................

58
186
304
322
303

61
205
330
369
328

67
207
342
375
320

72
198
340
369
309

77
212
348
384
315

79
214
341
372
328

84
224
342
379
336

99
242
361
412
352

113
267
408
463
384

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and wiring ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

248
215
210
437
364

■282
235
223
528
443

282
220
241
598
480

279
213
238
652
506

298
231
250
738
553

311
234
217
743
541

329
246
219
683
549

365
276
246
679
642

413
337
272
771
813

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad equipm ent.........................................................

212
1,263
1,615
313
83

237
1,476
1,513
313
83

236
1,542
1,322
303
88

220
1,323
1,292
308
70

234
1,521
1,360
308
85

222
1,632
1,355
315
92

211
1,663
1,282
319
106

229
1,903
1,335
350
117

250
1,895
1,642
396
129

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum en ts....................................
Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t...............................

15
37
239
90
170

17
50
262
95
179

16
45
265
99
175

16
42
260
100
163

17
48
272
105
156

19
66
273
110
140

20
81
275
113
128

22
91
286
117
133

22
105
315
130
140

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

142
55
139
224
457

146
62
140
240
482

149
60
131
244
485

151
57
128
240
472

155
61
128
251
486

157
64
125
250
480

166
64
132
259
487

185
70
134
291
505

213
77
145
298
516




122

D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Historical
mausiry
1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

2,070
707
2,095
495
393

2,002
706
2,269
515
425

1,925
711
2,271
511
454

1,791
707
2,256
431
468

1,741
685
2,324
475
457

1,613
672
2,357
490
459

1,709
661
2,415
508
449

1,666
657
2,547
509
475

1,660
648
2,629
421
516

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation services ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and private................................

55
141
175
1,556
926

51
151
179
1,537
918

48
160
187
1,548
919

46
163
188
1,515
910

45
162
192
1,522
903

44
161
202
1,516
903

43
167
210
1,566
914

42
173
217
1,642
930

40
184
228
1,725
939

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

447
133
6,906
4,102
15,917

456
138
7,187
4,225
16,394

457
147
7,319
4,350
16,733

461
153
7,304
4,337
16,483

458
157
7,449
4,394
16,514

458
155
7,525
4,363
16,610

456
162
7,739
4,210
17,113

459
170
8,048
4,429
17,492

457
174
8,299
4,510
17,665

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

1,204
716
2,307
0
1,508

1,250
771
2,311
0
1,534

1,307
825
2,362
0
1,543

1,346
873
2,403
0
1,534

1,394
905
2,427
0
1,553

1,446
927
2,455
0
1,557

1,499
963
2,442
0
1,587

1,542
1,001
2,477
0
1,608

1,607
1,036
2,506
0
1,614

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s ..................................
Advertising........................................................................

1,899
2,499
1,202
1,297
228

1,945
2,523
1,224
1,413
236

1,980
2,313
1,123
1,497
243

1,975
2,312
1,140
1,583
239

1,974
2,298
1,131
1,708
240

1,980
2,518
1,282
1,775
240

2,028
2,558
1,319
1,837
244

2,044
2,573
1,340
2,004
256

2,028
2,560
1,340
2,216
249

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

1,672
850
351
654
1,291

1,697
884
345
681
1,314

1,762
925
339
715
1,368

1,784
931
334
728
1,399

1,805
990
322
775
1,409

1,811
959
317
775
1,380

1,865
1,080
319
809
1,430

1,922
1,102
340
816
1,458

1,973
1,102
344
839
1,476

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

1,803
597
1,486
1,958
1,198

1,909
629
1,539
2,299
1,224

2,037
676
1,587
2,378
1,242

2,139
711
1,630
2,493
1,270

2,239
745
1,706
2,549
1,270

2,359
774
1,757
2,588
1,275

2,510
831
1,838
2,627
1,276

2,578
870
1,890
2,655
1,319

2,646
907
1,970
2,707
1,374

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger transit ............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
166
153
449
0

0
222
154
487
0

0
235
152
539
0

0
248
153
561
0

0
272
147
592
0

0
281
154
643
0

0
289
165
650
0

0
305
166
695
0

0
297
166
670
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry..................................... ................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
6,436
0
0
3,579
0

0
6,782
0
0
3,534
0

0
6,581
0
0
3,533
0

0
6,418
0
0
3,411
0

0
6,556
0
0
3,390
0

0
6,590
0
0
3,342
0

0
6,772
0
0
3,293
0

0
7,058
0
0
3,196
0

0
7,149
0
0
3,103
0




123

0-3. Total hours paid by industry, 195B“95=-C@ntinu@d
(Millions of hours)
Historical
mausiry
1967
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and livestock.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

2,222
1,883
365
1,632
2,713

2,100
1,869
412
1,575
2,665

1,910
1,776
404
1,492
2,628

1,793
1,739
368
1,380
2,454

1,685
1,680
348
1,414
2,378

1,679
1,699
383
1,368
2,451

1,544
1,611
303
1,405
2,579

1,461
1,589
302
1,450
2,632

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery seiv ic e s.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r..............

120
589
65
56
60

100
612
61
67
55

105
617
64
81
55

120
608
66
86
61

137
648
62
78
56

111
738
56
81
47

107
773
60
88
45

102
808
66
93
49

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .................................................................... .
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

300
358
238
48
1,483

281
354
231
43
1,436

287
351
230
42
1,560

311
344
232
36
1,613

307
344
228
36
1,567

346
336
233
43
1,633

341
328
241
45
1,626

357
344
247
49
1,779

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

307
285
721
591
563

362
271
726
570
571

363
226
735
553
593

270
177
740
531
581

195
156
737
494
577

188
159
739
474
618

185
163
710
450
608

170
166
730
438
605

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

310
607
75
177
208

309
606
76
175
200

311
595
75
177
200

313
577
77
171
199

303
556
74
168
194

304
542
79
165
188

314
529
78
168
187

313
510
76
161
186

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s ...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco manufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills .............................................. ............

286
309
174
1,311
102

284
314
167
1,331
112

291
323
162
1,323
129

290
327
164
1,263
127

285
319
153
1,220
134

281
294
148
1,270
141

285
303
156
1,299
144

279
307
154
1,197
137

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill p roducts...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Logging..............................................................................

166
466
2,325
357
279

176
508
2,331
363
296

179
503
2,336
366
310

156
494
2,248
333
281

153
513
2,215
337
273

160
545
2,231
370
279

161
542
2,353
398
301

161
500
2,208
350
305

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p roducts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

495
622
80
619
333

489
633
76
651
320

480
664
76
660
327

442
633
66
610
306

451
681
58
644
296

475
744
57
701
325

478
756
55
729
348

472
704
50
674
353

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

1,031
463
719
401
1,089

1,042
479
721
413
1,110

1,071
496
741
421
1,145

1,054
471
749
418
1,124

1,020
458
743
399
1,080

1,042
469
764
415
1,090

1,064
481
780
423
1,129

1,070
457
764
430
1,134

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and orqanic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical p roducts.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

618
145
238
223
243

624
144
253
230
265

633
141
261
234
278

635
138
236
227
267

609
123
206
222
259

582
121
203
229
259

596
129
208
237
277

613
137
206
240
282

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products....... .......................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .................................................. .

281
235
142
397
226

288
244
149
405
254

298
258
150
332
266

312
265
145
412
247

323
258
141
422
253

335
256
144
424
267

345
266
146
417
291

352
264
140
424
300




124

D=3„ Total hours paid by tndusSry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Historical
inausiry
1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ..................................................................................

346
537
63
643
372

346
603
64
653
377

339
670
60
614
400

317
651
55
584
392

321
642
54
545
382

355
723
52
544
413

374
807
50
522
435

361
801
45
482
419

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u c ts ..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products........................

483
137
90
293
1,328

492
137
92
292
1,347

509
134
93
302
1,372

495
124
91
294
1,302

515
121
89
297
1,179

546
121
94
307
1,195

577
125
101
335
1,299

546
120
104
343
1,302

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and forgings ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

658
323
310
191
180

644
316
314
201
186

674
347
329
210
194

625
335
304
189
200

599
322
291
167
190

633
343
300
164
188

699
368
333
180
195

718
361
342
180
195

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products...... ...........................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardware............................

146
887
247
504
343

151
895
247
542
349

160
936
251
554
348

147
914
223
506
316

140
899
194
483
317

148
941
223
510
344

155
1,034
249
539
375

145
1,047
254
481
365

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm m achinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

640
223
326
399
191

645
234
305
411
193

672
238
295
438
205

627
234
275
436
194

597
241
264
413
174

674
247
291
440
189

718
265
341
493
214

718
271
370
524
229

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral eq uipm ent...........................

815
444
625
550
393

775
430
604
529
426

780
447
627
557
475

703
417
598
517
495

588
369
542
438
463

646
379
571
474
451

739
421
633
527
492

768
439
662
556
527

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household a p pliance s.....................................................

120
272
425
460
365

103
283
434
448
377

110
311
439
475
393

112
308
429
453
379

94
299
390
412
367

102
348
389
444
388

109
386
425
509
409

115
364
431
515
396

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

414
319
273
858
787

417
315
275
879
784

424
316
313
855
809

403
270
348
754
747

388
265
338
642
675

426
286
331
624
737

464
308
347
631
850

443
278
340
650
860

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. Aircraft ...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re pair..................................
100. Railroad equipm e nt.........................................................

250
1,731
1,800
383
116

266
1,928
1,824
401
96

264
1,957
1,714
410
108

256
1,674
1,409
367
105

263
1,806
1,119
374
106

290
1,927
1,064
412
102

324
2,168
1,129
432
105

310
1,911
1,158
437
121

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum ents....................................
Optical and ophthalmic equipment ...............................

23
111
313
141
148

27
146
320
154
158

2S
186
327
171
160

27
192
305
171
148

29
232
280
174
136

42
290
349
187
119

43
293
373
206
136

42
195
390
228
139

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ......................
Other manufactured products........................................

225
76
150
284
502

228
73
153
292
497

237
71
162
299
486

239
69
148
282
498

236
58
135
282
476

252
61
162
307
483

266
69
166
325
486

275
68
167
329
484




125

D-3. Toftal hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Historical
m uubiry

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

111.
11 2.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation...................................................
Local transit and intercity b u s e s ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

1,570
656
2,592
433
604

1,523
651
2,671
423
667

1,494
658
2,705
403
706

1,459
683
2,704
383
702

1,364
659
2,743
345
700

1,327
587
2,852
380
706

1,339
589
2,984
359
734

1,353
592
2,923
368
763

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation........................ ............................
Transportation s e rv ic e s..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

41
200
238
1,747
957

40
201
245
1,782
971

39
221
260
1,929
996

38
227
275
2,039
1,036

37
250
284
1,987
1,065

36
248
286
2,075
1,099

36
247
289
2,151
1,137

37
261
299
2,183
1,152

121.
122.
123.
12^.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s.............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

464
180
8,388
4,528
17,631

467
186
8,479
4,664
17,876

467
203
8,834
4,809
18,235

472
220
8,941
4,904
18,307

455
189
8,872
5,033
18,791

461
184
9,040
5,167
19,277

466
188
9,384
5,382
19,636

466
194
9,617
5,635
19,452

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

1,687
1,081
2,582
0
1,591

1,777
1,190
2,615
0
1,641

1,914
1,289
2,672
0
1,710

2,017
1,241
2,750
0
1,742

2,065
1,249
2,781
0
1,894

2,122
1,345
2,857
0
2,038

2,241
1,394
2,910
0
2,122

2,380
1,377
2,941
0
2,160

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging p lace s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s.........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

2,031
2,503
1,319
2,398
251

1,992
2,509
1,328
2,493
248

2,097
2,515
1,304
2,800
247

2,071
2,404
1,255
2,910
246

2,094
2,293
1,235
2,987
252

2,215
2.185
1,113
3,461
262

2,247
2,231
1,095
3,687
279

2,304
2,197
1,049
3,884
261

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ s e rv ic e s .....................................

2,006
1,087
348
823
1,485

2,118
1,131
360
843
1,535

2,281
1,189
375
864
1,554

2,372
1,193
386
891
1,541

2,458
1,201
364
922
1,696

2,602
1,233
381
1,004
1,676

2,697
1,279
408
1,047
1,732

2,874
1,291
409
1,072
1,826

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

2,852
1,011
2,036
2,801
1,433

2,985
1,128
2,137
2,894
1,461

3,152
1,227
2,217
3,121
1,484

3,332
1,319
2,239
3,080
1,527

3,459
1,465
2,288
3,096
1,499

3,578
1,507
2,352
2,921
1,452

3,702
1,660
2,396
2,965
1,453

3,897
1,764
2,461
3,035
1,478

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit C orp ora tion......................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
303
172
666
0

0
303
184
696
0

0
308
181
732
0

0
343
190
754
0

0
333
194
830
0

0
335
210
815
0

0
341
208
871
0

0
339
234
940
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
7,014
0
0
3,294
0

0
7,265
0
0
3,168
0

0
7,734
0
0
3,019
0

0
7,493
0
0
2,881
0

0
7,806
0
0
2,793
0

0
7,744
0
0
2,734
0

0
8,401
0
0
2,682
0

0
8,274
0
0
2,321
0

O ther Federal enterprises ..................................................




126

D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Historical
industry
1975
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1.976

1977

1978

1979

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals arid live s to c k.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts..............................................

1,360
1,459
175
1,468
2,740

1,261
1,382
185
1,457
2,592

1,201
1,347
178
1,423
2,654

1,179
1,351
143
1,431
2,819

1,098
1,290
142
1,427
2,826

8. Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore m in in g ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except c o p p e r..............

94
723
64
80
54

129
770
66
76
60

153
750
55
67
65

169
822
64
63
77

1980

1981

1982

1,007
1,231
143
1,413
2,810

1,004
1,226
143
1,409
2,800

975
1,191
139
1,370
2,722

166
893
67
73
80

192
1,112
55
63
91

189
1,133
54
78
89

180
1,289
32
50
68

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ..........................
Maintenance and repair construction............................

443
370
217
51
1,906

466
403
221
53
1,925

489
425
227
55
2,048

439
455
232
56
2,267

553
480
245
58
2,355

515
548
234
61
2,959

471
634
221
60
2,895

501
684
199
53
2,718

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance.... .......................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ...............................................

157
164
703
425
587

145
146
737
426
615

146
137
742
411
603

148
155
744
404
610

153
169
752
401
624

157
183
741
380
618

170
200
739
367
585

165
219
714
357
579

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill products...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

306
492
78
150
184

307
502
84
152
171

322
494
71
158
179

324
496
68
157
183

324
485
63
161
182

321
473
63
154
179

308
460
67
152
181

292
456
61
148
184

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla vo rin g s...............................................
Other food products............................. ............................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

271
304
151
1,075
116

286
309
151
1,192
122

294
325
141
1,154
132

305
330
141
1,141
139

313
340
139
1,130
129

309
337
137
1,073
115

300
337
142
1,025
109

297
317
134
870
97

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill p roducts...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Lo gging..............................................................................

140
448
2,020
327
246

149
461
2,168
372
303

151
473
2,167
373
303

152
480
2,139
397
295

152
452
2,081
398
330

142
443
2,044
368
312

142
430
2,020
372
300

122
393
1,840
338
252

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

409
608
43
559
295

467
684
42
615
303

484
746
42
635
358

492
821
40
674
372

498
813
38
662
362

435
735
35
595
360

413
720
35
591
367

358
634
30
518
365

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper products .......................................................................

Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

967
406
753
430
1,080

1,032
439
768
442
1,097

1,048
451
801
454
1,154

1,071
463
819
455
1,245

1,087
455
845
462
1,312

1,064
434
854
477
1,324

1,068
428
853
493
1,343

1,028
396
856
497
1,345

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

607
140
185
209
249

635
147
191
216
248

672
147
202
213
245

693
145
203
215
245

703
152
209
215
239

700
157
210
203
231

712
152
211
201
218

688
139
198
187
201

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs ........................................... ......................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

348
253
129
409
262

356
268
137
424
222

378
274
138
436
290

392
287
144
454
277

405
293
144
461
273

409
297
135
420
238

416
308
131
464
230

416
307
126
441
219




127

D-3. Tota! hours paid by industry, 1§§8-95—
-Continued
(Millions of hours)
Historical
m uubiry

1975

1976

1977

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u cts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ...................................................................................

303
699
46
451
380

325
807
48
472
410

333
895
47
464
423

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related p ro d u cts..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

479
101
94
288
1,127

487
103
98
300
1,147

506
106
101
315
1,162

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper products............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

631
296
274
157
173

627
311
304
172
173

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

124
965
192
397
319

76.
77,
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and generators.................................
Farm machinery....................... .........................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

349
1,033
40
445
435

314
969
40
411
409

314
1,007
42
419
404

286
943
38
385
368

537
109
103
342
1,199

560
111
107
345
1,213

511
95
100
309
1,049

482
86

437
71

94
303
1,057

264
786

649
320
319
183
174

678
326
350
196
177

684
348
364
201
181

581
318
342
193
168

560
319
338
190
158

438
278
290
167
141

131
976
204
473
354

142
1,010
220
510
375

152
1,066
241
537
388

156
1,122
256
517
384

144
1,089
231
443
340

138
1,075
221
433
334

123
943
186
385
289

638
249
345
538
192

684
252
345
519
184

725
267
353
546
199

766
294
352
593
207

794
306
397
588
226

750
279
354
596
224

743
277
325
649
207

669
232
284
528
177

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm e nt...........................

670
386
607
534
497

679
387
603
544
504

741
402
622
559
549

788
418
662
621
624

844
436
700
679
715

827
439
682
680
792

792
418
676
676
854

659
363
589
596
896

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household a p pliance s.....................................................

100
294
358
441
328

102
335
372
462
352

101
354
396
487
375

112
390
432
514
384

124
393
465
528
369

120
360
467
500
331

114
365
470
501
326

98
326
440
416
285

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication eq uipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

369
229
303
643
692

407
249
288
638
754

425
259
313
657
837

454
250
321
709
950

469
233
351
748
1,089

446
221
343
788
1,141

434
217
331
830
1,152

382
188
305
883
1,152

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad e q uipm e nt.........................................................

276
1,655
1,112
412
119

307
1,933
1,054
454
102

333
2,121
1,047
474
116

366
2,220
1,165
471
132

371
2,103
1,353
474
158

315
1,639
1,438
470
145

310
1,668
1,417
491
110

316
1,479
1,320
460
74

Radio and television receiving s e t s ..................................

342
9801
46
470
445

80

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instrum en ts....................................
Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t...............................

31
172
354
220
125

35
209
365
244
139

38
•220
396
265
152

43
238
422
282
159

42
217
454
295
171

36
145
466
319
163

36
143
494
330
160

29
147
466
325
158

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ............................. ...........................
Jewelry and silverware ...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

253
61
164
278
451

265
62
183
294
454

276
61
188
294
490

281
61
196
295
538

286
56
182
293
516

282
47
162
280
463

289
43
161
281
448

294
37
152
263
441




128

D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1S58-i5—
-Continued
(Millions of hours)
Historical
mausxry
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1,276
563
3,295
461
921

1,194
574
3,072
445
951

1,114
572
3,012
455
950

948
573
2,915
418
912

43
349
358
2,219
1,268

44
414
381
2,336
1,323

46
429
401
2,423
1,395

49
450
416
2,469
1,434

49
455
433
2,480
1,477

449
189
10,190
6,237
20,037

461
205
10,685
6,512
20,675

466
203
11,230
6,746
20,787

467
224
11,249
6,966
20,638

483
228
11,436
7,126
20,654

488
222
11,167
7,262
20,069

2,493
1,431
3,045
0
2,066

2,586
1,520
3,148
0
2,223

2,708
1,614
3,337
0
2,499

2,835
1,730
3,440
0
2,710

2,967
1,821
3,520
0
2,678

3,092
1,929
3,550
0
2,665

3,141
1,987
3,636
0
2,556

2,277
2,169
1,013
3,957
263

2,335
2,146
1,066
4,231
265

2,458
2,176
1,094
4,557
279

2,525
2,497
1,123
5,029
298

2,626
2,572
1,130
5,470
318

2,662
2,610
1,164
5,937
324

2,757
2,603
1,150
6,279
328

2,839
2,636
1,127
6,492
353

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile repair ............................................................
Motion p ic tu re s ................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services .....................................

3,060
1,336
412
1,115
1,953

3,008
1,443
429
1,173
2,001

3,302
1,514
453
1,186
2,098

3,443
1,626
455
1,259
2,221

3,668
1,737
472
1,238
2,317

3,824
1,698
473
1,325
2,429

4,028
1,710
466
1,376
2,502

4,233
1,811
503
1,386
2,510

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

4,107
1,852
2,789
3,137
1,464

4,243
1,979
2,582
3,146
1,399

4,367
2,130
2,686
3,151
1,363

4,494
2,301
2,658
3,571
1,374

4,651
2,436
2,793
3,645
1,392

4,884
2,576
2,987
3,752
1,396

5,142
2,725
3,052
3,674
1,406

5,364
2,869
3,181
3,665
1,408

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
310
232
1,039
0

0
311
252
1,022
0

0
307
256
1,034
0

0
315
264
1,069
0

0
326
270
1,125
0

0
323
354
1,060
0

0
315
356
1,031
0

0
310
354
1,014
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government indu stry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
7,026
0
0
2,175
0

0
7,408
0
0
2,250
0

0
8,109
0
0
2,285
0

0
9,034
0
0
2,240
0

0
9,662
0
0
2,097
0

0
8,532
0
0
1,961
0

0
8,493
0
0
1,921
0

0
7,929
0
0
1,947
0

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

1,239
573
2,753
345
756

1,227
569
2,849
346
780

1,242
541
3,037
343
795

1,236
534
3,234
386
823

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and te le visio n ..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

37
275
310
2,074
1,119

38
283
322
2,047
1,136

40
312
335
2,111
1,180

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding p u blic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

462
181
9,472
5,671
19,331

451
188
9,870
5,913
19,611

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

2,426
1,373
3,022
0
2,027

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging place s..............................................
Personal and repair services .........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s..................................
Advertising............. ...........................................................

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.




129

0-3. Totai hours paid by industry, 1953-95— Continued
(Millions of hours)
Projected
Industry
Low
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1995 alternatives

1990 alternatives
Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

Dairy and poultry products...............................................
Meat animals and live s to c k.............................................
C o tto n .................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s .......................................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ..............................................

854
1,073
124
1,318
2,577

868
1,072
123
1,330
2,605

875
1,074
124
1,339
2,630

773
992
113
1,282
2,474

809
1,005
113
1,296
2,524

825
1,017
116
1,317
2,574

6. Forestry and fishery products .........................................
7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services.............................
8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .......................................
9. Copper ore mining ............................................................
10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except co p p e r..............

153
1,378
50
55
67

166
1,342
50
54
67

187
1,320
44
52
65

197
1,489
50
66
68

190
1,502
52
71
68

204
1,513
46
72
67

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Coal m in in g .......................................................................
Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g .....................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying............................
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ..........................
Maintenance and repair con struction............................

622
614
189
69
3,421

596
652
196
69
3,270

573
630
206
68
3,241

643
739
160
78
3,598

655
749
171
76
3,637

664
678
193
76
3,695

16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

O rdnance...........................................................................
Guided missiles and space v e h ic le s .............................
Meat products...................................................................
Dairy products...................................................................
Canned and frozen foods ...............................................

189
271
716
284
650

182
269
716
300
659

184
264
720
325
670

185
309
729
244
657

179
289
740
262
668

190
296
756
272
691

21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Grain mill p roducts...........................................................
Bakery products ...............................................................
S ugar..................................................................................
Confectionery products ...................................................
Alcoholic beverages.........................................................

309
400
62
155
177

311
415
63
158
183

312
414
64
162
182

301
320
54
140
161

309
342
57
145
170

316
349
61
155
174

26.
27.
28.
29.
30.

Soft drinks and fla v o rin g s...............................................
Other food products.........................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills .........................................
Floor covering m ills ..........................................................

334
351
119
888
105

342
353
120
914
112

343
348
125
906
130

322
360
97
928
116

338
372
101
930
120

346
374
113
945
130

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.

Other textile mill products...............................................
Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................
Apparel ..............................................................................
Other fabricated textile products....................................
Lo gging..............................................................................

142
400
1,935
436
261

147
424
1,972
443
264

155
425
1,947
452
264

132
437
2,038
461
252

136
461
2,043
468
259

150
471
1,983
477
262

36.
37.
38.
39.
40.

Sawmills and planing m ills ..............................................
Other millwork, plywood, and wood p ro d u cts..............
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household furniture..........................................................
Furniture and fixtures, except household......................

387
796
24
636
386

395
817
25
669
401

424
859
26
725
417

413
825
19
662
397

416
843
22
691
413

430
896
24
779
424

41.
42.
43.
44.
45.

Paper p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Paperboard........................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing................................
Periodical, book printing and publishing .......................
Other printing and publishing .........................................

1,118
400
937
590
1,466

1,125
425
944
591
1,522

1,144
440
943
602
1,513

1,140
375
983
654
1,491

1,149
402
1,021
669
1,584

1,189
434
1,041
679
1,618

46.
47.
48.
49.
50.

Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals...................
Agricultural chem icals......................................................
Other chemical products.................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r..........................
Synthetic fib e rs .................................................................

761
174
224
233
230

754
180
233
242
243

745
181
254
253
259

777
175
243
237
252

790
187
249
243
256

794
198
251
259
278

51.
52.
53.
54.
55.

Drugs .................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................
Paints and allied products...............................................
Petroleum refining and related products.......................
Tires and inner tu b e s .......................................................

532
348
138
398
210

534
353
145
396
213

532
349
149
396
218

578
349
134
382
212

586
367
144
391
216

591
371
151
395
224




130

D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Projected
1995 alternatives

1990 alternatives

Industry
Low

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

High

56.
57.
58.
59.
60.

Rubber products except tires and tubes ......................
Plastic p ro d u c ts................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather...........................
Leather products including fo o tw e a r.............................
G la s s ...................................................................................

301
1,166
30
311
425

310
1,319
32
318
432

324
1,359
33
320
440

299
1,360
22
275
451

305
1,491
25
289
451

324
1,550
29
268
455

61.
62.
63.
64.
65.

Cement and concrete products......................................
Structural clay products...................................................
Pottery and related products..........................................
Other stone and clay products.......................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel products.......................

467
73
88
314
843

505
78
92
330
875

527
83
94
349
865

450
61
93
350
866

501
65
97
363
890

537
72
99
381
883

66.
67.
68.
69.
70.

Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ...........................
Primary copper and copper p ro d u cts............................
Primary aluminum and aluminum products...................
Primary nonferrous metals and products......................
Metal containers...............................................................

493
324
348
175
149

510
331
364
178
153

516
341
365
182
154

525
343
349
173
136

533
349
367
177
137

543'
365
379
187
144

71.
72.
73.
74.
75.

Heating apparatus and plumbing fix tu re s .....................
Fabricated structural metal products.............................
Screw machine products.................................................
Metal stam pings...............................................................
Cutlery, handtools, general hardw are............................

146
1,103
234
484
361

150
1,181
244
516
374

166
1,242
248
524
383

158
1,160
252
487
401

161
1,285
260
517
403

186
1,389
264
532
412

76.
77.
78.
79.
80.

Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts ....................................
Engines, turbines, and ge nerators.................................
Farm machinery................................................................
Construction, mining, oilfield machinery........................
Material handling equipm ent...........................................

789
311
338
658
224

843
314
351
674
232

841
315
357
681
247

809
340
341
714
250

867
343
350
740
254

878
348
363
762
276

81.
82.
83.
84.
85.

Metalworking m achinery..................................................
Special industry m achinery.............................................
General industrial m achinery..........................................
Other nonelectrical machinery........................................
Computers and peripheral equipm ent...........................

770
428
691
664
1,235

808
431
706
686
1,236

818
439
707
711
1,250

772
433
717
705
1,395

824
437
726
720
1,448

854
455
738
762
1,474

86.
87.
88.
89.
90.

Typewriters and other office equipment .......................
Service industry m a chines..............................................
Electric transmission equipment ....................................
Electrical industrial apparatus.........................................
Household a p pliance s.....................................................

116
387
483
518
360

126
408
506
532
379

135
440
507
560
406

140
424
505
575
390

144
439
522
579
398

151
435
536
630
434

91.
92.
93.
94.
95.

Electric lighting and w irin g ..............................................
Radio and television receiving s e ts ...............................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus .............................
Radio and communication equipm ent...........................
Electronic com ponents....................................................

468
193
368
945

491
218
383
904

510
226
414
921

522
232
430
962

527
239
473
969

1,521

1,565

1,671

513
217
429
1,117
1,836

1,810

1,825

96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent...................
97. Motor v e h ic le s ..................................................................
98. A irc ra ft...............................................................................
99. Ship and boat building and re p a ir..................................
100. Railroad equipm e nt.........................................................

336
1,670
1,511
538
90

352
1,758
1,438
528
93

373
1,746
1,404
515
95

397
1,774
1,600
572
94

400
1,793
1,484
554
100

431
1,817
1,467
540
105

101.
102.
103.
104.
105.

Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................
Other transportation equipm ent.....................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents...........................
Medical and dental instruments ....................................
Optical and ophthalmic eq u ip m e n t...............................

36
171
609
425
169

38
190
606
420
175

39
215
608
436
179

39
203
713
556
176

41
215
718
558
184

44
242
739
561
197

106.
107.
108.
109.
110.

Photographic equipment and supplies .........................
Watches and c lo c k s ........................................................
Jewelry and silverw a re...................................................
Musical instruments and sporting go o d s......................
Other manufactured products........................................

352
45
149
273
428

357
46
165
284
437

366
48
179
294
458

368
46
191
291
443

370
43
196
298
448

386
45




131

222

306
490

D-3. Total hours paid by industry, 1958-95—Continued
(Millions of hours)
Projected
Industry

1990 alternatives
Low

Moderate

1995 alternatives
High

Low

Moderate

High

111.
112.
113.
114.
115.

Railroad transportation ...................................................
Local transit and intercity buses ...................................
Truck transportation........................................................
Water transportation .......................................................
Air transportation.............................................................

755
602
3,408
391
1,033

798
595
3,397
416
1,054

916
602
3,424
424
1,046

687
598
3,470
398
1,091

737
619
3,534
416
1,104

792
659
3,609
420
1,114

116.
117.
118.
119.
120.

Pipeline transportation....................................................
Transportation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Radio and television broadcasting................................
Communications except radio and tele visio n..............
Electric utilities, public and priva te................................

49
514
587
2,796
1,447

51
528
600
2,786
1,502

55
489
569
2,898
1,506

52
569
689
3,061
1,512

52
581
693
3,161
1,532

57
579
695
3,180
1,546

121.
122.
123.
124.
125.

Gas utilities, excluding Dublic.........................................
Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................
Eating and drinking p la c e s .............................................
Retail trade, except eating and drinking ......................

465
293
12,073
7,862
22,306

460
278
12,395
7,919
22,776

462
279
12,646
7,929
23,093

431
301
12,854
8,715
22,950

435
305
13,118
8,810
23,896

445
318
13,248
8,850
24,327

126.
127.
128.
129.
130.

B anking.............................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..........................
Insurance..........................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te ...........................................
Real e s ta te .......................................................................

3,656
2,484
4,198
0
2,866

3,648
2,557
4,169
0
2,999

3,668
2,586
4,172
0
2,135

3,886
2,839
4,277
0
3,169

3,921
2,862
4,348
0
3,186

3,960
2,922
4,422
0
3,209

131.
132.
133.
134.
135.

Hotels and lodging p la ce s..............................................
Personal and repair s e rv ic e s .........................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s ...............................................
Miscellaneous business services ..................................
A dvertising........................................................................

3,134
2,872
1,150
8,378
396

3,137
2,976
1,164
8,710
405

3,098
3,175
1,209
8,945
409

3,223
2,977
1,224
10,326
420

3,234
3,062
1,270
10,367
431

3,271
3,337
1,316
10,401
439

136.
137.
138.
139.
140.

Miscellaneous professional services ............................
Automobile re p a ir............................................................
Motion pictures ................................................................
Amusements and recreation services ..........................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services .....................................

4,879
1,897
515
1,610
3,059

5,005
2,019
499
1,648
3,094

4,967
2,151
500
1,683
3,322

5,430
2,193
502
1,792
3,157

5,593
2,245
507
1,822
3,212

5,771
2,320
524
1,908
3,356

141.
142.
143.
144.
145.

H ospitals...........................................................................
Medical services, except hospitals ...............................
Educational services (private)........................................
Nonprofit organizations...................................................
Post O ffic e ........................................................................

6,765
3,472
4,040
4,064
1,307

6,884
3,670
3,562
4,097
1,240

6,755
3,788
3,304
4,170
1,236

7,627
4,323
3,747
4,105
1,096

7,637
4.386
3,885
4,189
1,185

7,957
4,478
3,909
4,358
1,212

146.
147.
148.
149.
150.

Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................
Other Federal en terp rises..............................................
Local government passenger tra n s it............................
Other State and local enterprises.................................
Noncomparable imports .................................................

0
370
421
1,219
0

0
360
422
1,244
0

0
368
434
1,296
0

0
365
461
1,372
0

0
378
469
1,418
0

0
395
502
1,531
0

151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.

Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s ............................
New construction indu stry..............................................
Government industry.......................................................
Rest-of-world indu stry.....................................................
Private households..........................................................
Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................

0
10,073
0
0
1,678
0

0
10,117
0
0
1,628
0

0
10,317
0
0
1,619
0

0
11,303
0
0
1,479
0

0
11,511
0
0
1,538
0

0
11,608
0
0
1,563
0




132

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives
{Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

A gricultu re, fo re s try , and fishing
Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

1,529.0

100.00

1,417.9

1,445.1

1,475.3

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Agricultural scientists.......................................................................................................
Veterinarians.....................................................................................................................
Airplane p ilo ts ...................................................................................................................
A th le te s .............................................................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors...............................................................................................
A rc h ite c ts ..........................................................................................................................
Foresters and conservationists......................................................................................
Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs .................................................................................

48.8
3.3
10.5
2.5
7.6
2.4
3.2
4.8
1.0

3.19
.22
.69
.17
.50
.16
.21
.32
.07

52.5
3.9
12.4
3.0
7.1
2.3
3.8
4.8
1.1

53.4
4.0
12.7
3.1
7.3
2.3
3.9
4.7
1.1

54.9
4.1
12.9
3.1
7.4
2.3
4.0
5.1
1.1

3.70
.28
.88
.21
.50
.16
.27
.33
.07

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

24.5

1.60

28.0

28.5

29.3

1.97

Sales w orke rs......................................................................................................................

12.8

.84

12.2

12.5

12.7

.86

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ..........................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ......................................................................................
R eceptionists....................................................................................................................
S ecretaries........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ...............................................................................................................................

53.3
16.4
1.4
6.4
17.7
1.6

3.49
1.07
.09
.42
1.16
.10

53.6
16.7
1.2
7.6
16.3
1.7

54.7
17.0
1.2
7.8
16.6
1.7

55.9
17.4
1.3
7.9
16.9
1.8

3.79
1.18
.09
.54
1.15
.12

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Carpenters ........................................................................................................................
Electricians........................................................................................................................
Painters, construction and maintenance ......................................................................
Plumbers and pip e fitte rs.................................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics....................................................................................................
Engineering equipment m echanics................................................................................
Farm equipment m echanics...........................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators...............................................................................
Heavy equipment operators ...........................................................................................
Merchandise displayers and window trim m e rs ............................................................

67.1
7.8
1.3
1.3
1.8
1.9
7.9
2.1
16.4
1.2
2.5
3.4

4.39
.51
.08
.08
.12
.12
.52
.14
1.07
.08
.16
.22

64.1
6.8
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.9
7.4
1.8
16.9
1.1
2.7
2.8

65.3
6.9
1.1
1.2
1.8
1.9
7.5
1.9
17.2
1.1
2.8
2.9

66.7
7.1
1.1
1.2
1.8
2.0
7.7
1.9
17.6
1.1
2.8
2.9

4.52
.48
.08
.08
.12
.13
.52
.13
1.19
.08
.19
.20

O oeratives.............................................................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters...............................................................................................
S aw yers..............................................................................................................................
Industrial truck o o e ra to rs ................................................................................................
Truckdriving occu pation s................................................................................................
Delivery and route w o rk e rs ...........................................................................................
Truck drivers ...................................................................................................................

51.7
2.9
1.7
1.3
26.4
6.7
19.7

3.38
.19
.11
.09
1.73
.44
1.29

51.7
2.5
1.7
1.3
25.3
5.7
19.6

52.7
2.5
1.8
1.4
25.8
5.8
20.0

53.9
2.6
1.8
1.4
26.4
6.0
20.4

3.65
.17
.12
.09
1.79
.40
1.38

Service w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Building custodians..........................................................................................................
G ua rds................................................................................. ..............................................

10.7
3.5
1.1

.70
.23
.07

10.5
3.8
1.1

10.7
3.9
1.1

10.9
4.0
1.1

.74
.27
.07

Laborers, except farm .............................................................................. ..........................
Animal caretake rs............................................................................................................
Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm .............................................................
Helpers tra d e s .................................................................................................................
Loaders, tank cars and tru c k s .......................................................................................

228.0
61.9
132.8
2.2
3.1

14.91
4.05
8.68
.14
.20

270.1
66.1
168.6
2.5
3.7

275.1
67.5
172.4
2.6
3.7

282.6
69.0
175.8
2.7
3.8

19.04
4.67
11.93
,18
.26

Farmers and farm w o rk e rs ................................................................................................
Farm m anagers................................................................................................................
Farm supervisors .............................................................................................................
Farm la bo rers...................................................................................................................

1,032.0
40.1
32.6
959.3

67.50
2.62
2.13
62.74

875.2
51.0
30.8
793.3

892.2
52.0
31.4
808.8

908.1
52.9
31.9
823.2

61.74
3.60
2.17
55.97

See footnotes at end of table.




133

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Confinusd
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives
Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

lin in g
Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

1,121.2

100.00

1,164.6

1,195.4

1,185.6

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Electrical e n ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Mining engineers...................... ........................................................................................
Petroleum engineers.........................................................................................................
G eo logists..........................................................................................................................
D rafters...............................................................................................................................
Computer programmers ...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................
Lease b u ye rs.....................................................................................................................

154.1
3.7
2.7
20.2
25.6
7.2
3.4
5.2
18.2
9.9

13.74
.33
.24
1.80
2.28
.64
.30
.46
1.63
.88

178.6
3.6
3.4
24.1
30.8
5.5
6.2
10.6
23.1
10.1

182.7
3.7
3.5
24.6
31.5
5.6
6.3
10.8
23.6
10.3

172.7
3.6
3.5
22.9
29.4
5.3
6.1
10.1
22.1
9.5

15.29
.31
.29
2.06
2.63
.47
.53
.91
1.98
.86

Managers, officials, and proprietors..................................................................................

80.5

7.18

87.5

89.7

88.1

7.50

Sales w o rke rs.......................................................................................................................

6.8

.61

6.1

6.3

6.4

.53

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Computer operators..........................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s .......................................................................................
R eceptionists.....................................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
S tenographers...................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ............................................... ......................

126.9
13.2
4.9
19.5
5.0
5.1
4.0
29.3
1.7
5.6
4.5

11.32
1.18
.44
1.74
.45
.46
.36
2.61
.16
.50
.40

121.4
11.1
4.6
15.9
6.6
5.2
4.0
30.1
2.0
5.6
5.3

124.5
11.4
4.7
16.4
6.8
5.3
4.1
30.8
2.0
5.8
5.4

120.8
10.9
4.7
16.1
6.4
5.3
3.9
29.5
1.9
5.6
5.4

10.42
.96
.40
1.37
.57
.45
.34
2.58
.17
.48
.45

Craft and related w o rk e rs ............... ...................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics.....................................................................................................
Diesel m echanics..............................................................................................................
Engineering equipment m echanics.................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
Mine machinery m echanics.............................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators...............................................................................
Heavy equipment operators ............................................................................................
Oil p u m p e rs .......................................................................................................................
Pumpers, head ..................................................................................................................

256.8
12.1
8.4
7.3
6.5
10.3
15.8
12.8
51.7
5.6
54.5
17.8
10.2

22.91
1.08
.75
.66
.58
.92
1.41
1.14
4.62
.50
4.87
1.59
.91

286.9
14.5
8.6
7.7
7.3
12.4
15.9
16.8
55.4
5.7
67.1
17.8
10.0

294.8
14.9
8.9
8.0
7.5
12.7
16.3
17.2
56.9
5.9
69.1
18.2
10.2

294.5
14.9
9.0
8.1
7.7
12.5
16.4
17.3
56.6
6.0
70.8
16.7
9.6

24.66
1.25
.75
.67
.63
1.07
1.37
1.44
4.76
.49
5.78
1.52
.86

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutte rs.................................................................................................
Mine operatives, nec...........................................................................................................
Continuous mining machine operators..........................................................................
Derrick operators, petroleum and gas ..........................................................................
Loading machine operators............................................................................................
Roof b o lte rs .......................................................................................................................
Service unit operators, oil w e ll.......................................................................................
Shuttle car operators.......................................................................................................
Well p u lle rs ........................................................................................................................
Truck d riv e rs .......................................................................................................................
B lasters................................................................................................................................
Drillers, hand and m a c h in e ...............................................................................................
O ile rs ....................................................................................................................................
Rotary drill o p e ra to rs .........................................................................................................
Rotary drill operator h e lp e rs ............................................................................................

401.6
21.3
203.4
7.8
16.9
7.1
11.0
12.4
11.2
6.6
39.6
7.2
9.9
6.2
22.8
33.3

35.81
1.90
18.14
.69
1.51
.64
.98
1.11
1.00
.59
3.53
.64
.89
.55
2.04
2.97

391.2
22.0
194.2
10.2
14.6
8.3
14.4
10.8
12.4
6.0
39.0
7.9
11.3
8.4
19.9
28.7

401.8
22.7
199.1
10.5
15.0
8.6
14.8
11.0
12.7
6.2
40.5
8.1
11.6
8.7
20.4
29.4

406.3
22.9
200.3
10.6
15.2
8.8
15.0
11.1
12.8
6.1
41.8
8.3
11.8
8.9
20.5
29.8

33.61
1.90
16.66
.88
1.25
.72
1.24
.92
1.06
.52
3.38
.68
.97
.73
1.70
2.46

See footnotes at end of table.




134

E-1. E m ploym ent in ssteeted industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1995 alternatives

1982

Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

lin in g —C ontinued

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

13.3
5.2

1.19
.47

13.9
5.4

14.3
5.5

14.2
5.5

1.19
.46

Laborers, except farm .........................................................................................................
Conveyor operators and te n d e rs ....................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

81.3
4.7
12.2

7.25
.42
1.09

78.9
5.3
12.7

81.3
5.5
13.1

82.5
5.7
13.4

6.80
.46
1.10

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

3,913.0

100.00

5,632.5

5,773.5

5,882.8

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Civil engineers...................................................................................................................
D rafters...............................................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians..............................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................
Cost e stim ators.................................................................................................................

199.6
16.0
18.8
10.1
24.0
68.6

5.10
.41
.48
.26
.61
1.75

289.6
28.2
18.0
16.9
34.9
99.3

296.8
28.9
18.5
17.3
35.8
101.8

302.5
29.4
18.8
17.7
36.5
103.7

5.14
.50
.32
.30
.62
1.76

Managers, officials, and proprietors..................................................................................

410.6

10.49

632.0

647.8

660.4

11.22

Sales w orke rs.......................................................................................................................

46.7

1.19

68.0

69.7

71.2

1.21

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ......................................................................

323.8
16.2
50.8
78.5
90.1
16.7
16.2

8.27
.41
1.30
2.01
2.30
.43
.41

449.8
22.4
70.3
117.2
117.7
23.1
19.8

461.0
23.0
72.1
120.1
120.6
23.7
20.3

470.0
23.4
73.5
122.5
122.9
24.2
20.7

7.99
.40
1.25
2.08
2.09
.41
.35

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Construction craft w o rk e rs ................................................................................................
Insulation w o rk e rs .............................................................................................................
Bricklayers .........................................................................................................................
Carpenters .........................................................................................................................
Cement masons and terrazzo w o rk e rs ..........................................................................
Drywall applicators............................................................................................................
Tapers ................................................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Carpet cutters, carpet la y e rs ...........................................................................................
Floor la y e rs ........................................................................................................................
Glaziers ..............................................................................................................................
Reinforcing-iron w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................

1,993.0
1,385.9
35.2
63.3
379.0
78.0
38.4
19.2
237.4
12.7
14.2
16.6
32.4
47.3
103.3
13.1
196.6
63.5
175.8
65.7
15.2
28.4
19.0
17.0
14.9
87.1
73.8
21.4
175.5

50.93
35.42
.90
1.62
9.68
1.99
.98
.49
6.07
.33
.36
.43
.83
1.21
2.64
.33
5.02
1.62
4.49
1.68
.39
.73
.49
.43
.38
2.23
1.89
.55
4.48

2,859.5
1,988.3
52.1
87.7
568.5
111.4
55.5
27.5
338.9
18.1
20.4
21.6
43.0
65.0
148.1
13.8
286.1
84.8
248.8
98.2
21.3
35.9
26.3
24.2
17.3
124.3
113.6
29.8
247.3

2,931.4
2,038.7
53.6
90.1
583.1
114.2
57.1
28.3
347.4
18.7
21.0
22.1
44.1
66.7
151.2
14.2
293.2
86.8
254.9
100.6
21.8
36.8
27.0
24.8
17.7
127.4
116.4
30.5
253.3

2,986.2
2,076.9
54.6
91.9
594.6
116.4
58.2
28.8
354.0
19.1
21.4
22.6
44.9
67.9
153.1
14.5
298.8
88.3
259.7
102.5
22.2
37.5
27.5
25.2
18.1
129.8
118.6
31.1
257.8

50.77
35.31
.93
1.56
10.10
1.98
.99
.49
6.02
.32
.36
.38
.76
1.15
2.62
.25
5.08
1.50
4.42
1.74
.38
.64
.47
.43
.31
2.21
2.02
.53
4.39

C onstruction

Structural steel w orke rs ............................................................................................................

Painters, construction and maintenance ........................................... ...........................
P lasterers...........................................................................................................................
Plumbers and pip e fitte rs ..................................................................................................
R oofers...............................................................................................................................
Mechanics, repairers, and in s ta lle rs ................................................................................
Air conditioning, refrigeration, and heating m echanics...............................................
Automotive m e chanics....................................................................................................
Line installers and cable s p lic e rs ..................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs........................................................................... .............
Millwrights ..........................................................................................................................
Boilermakers .......................................................................................................................
Sheet-metal workers and tinsm iths.................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.........................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs................................................................................
Heavy equipment op erators.............................................................................................

See footnotes at end of table.




135

E=1. Employm<sn£ in selected industries and occupation©,, 1982 and projected 1SS§ altemafiwes—ConSSnued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

C onstruction-—C ontinued

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................
Truck d riv e rs ......................................................................................................................

218.6
41.2
104.0

5.59
1.05
2.66

307.9
57.8
146.6

315.5
59.2
150.1

321.2
60.3
152.8

5.46
1.03
2.60

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

33.1
25.8

.84
.66

47.2
36.2

48.4
37.1

49.4
37.9

.84
.64

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Air hammer operators ......................................................................................................
Asphalt rakers ..................................................................................................................
Fence e re c to rs ..................................................................................................................
Pipelayers...........................................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

687.7
10.1
14.9
13.9
28.8
321.2

17.58
.26
.38
.35
.73
8.21

978.4
14.1
20.9
17.9
40.2
432.0

1,002.9
14.5
21.4
18.4
41.2
443.0

1,022.0
14.7
21.7
18.7
41.9
451.6

17.37
.25
.37
.32
.71
7.67

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

465.9

100.00

714.8

733.1

747.4

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
D rafters............................................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................
Cost e stim ators.................................................................................................................

14.5
2.0
2.8
7.5

3.11
.42
.61
1.61

22.5
1.9
4.4
11.5

23.1
2.0
4.5
11.8

23.6
2.0
4.6
12.0

3.15
.27
.61
1.61

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

71.0

15.24

117.7

120.7

123.0

16.46

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Real estate agents and b ro k e rs ....................................................................................

8.6
6.9

1.85
1.49

13.2
10.6

13.5
10.9

13.8
11.1

1.85
1.49

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................... ............................
Accounting clerks ................................................................................. ...........................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeepinq c le rk s ......................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................

48.4
2.3
10.3
11.6
3.4
16.1
2.2

10.38
.49
2.21
2.50
.73
3.46
.46

72.8
3.5
15.8
20.5
5.2
20.7
3.3

74.7
3.6
16.2
21.0
5.4
21.2
3.4

76.1
3.7
16.5
21.4
5.5
21.6
3.5

10.18
.49
2.21
2.87
.73
2.89
.46

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Construction craft w o rk e rs ...............................................................................................
Bricklayers .........................................................................................................................
Carpenters .......................................................................................... ..............................
Cement masons and terrazzo w o rk e rs ........................... .................... .......................
Drywall applicators...........................................................................................................
Electricians........................................................................................................................
Ironw orkers........................................................................................................................
Painters and paperhangers ............................................................................................
Plumbers and p ipe fitters..................................................................................................
R oofers...............................................................................................................................
Mechanics, repairers, and installers ...............................................................................
Sheet-metal workers and tinsm iths.................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.........................................................................................
C abinetm akers....................................................................................................................
Heavy equipment operators.......................... ...................................................................

222.3
193.4
6.4
156.2
8.9
2.4
2.7
2.2
8.0
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.1
7.2
3.8
9.3

47.72
41.52
1.38
33.52
1.91
.51
.57
.47
1.72
.54
.46
.48
.46
1.55
.81
2.00

342.3
294.1
9.1
231.7
13.7
3.6
4.3
4.2
17.2
3.8
3.3
3.5
3.3
12.7
5.8
14.3

351.1
301.7
9.3
237.7
14.0
3.7
4.5
4.3
17.6
3.9
3.4
3.5
3.4
13.0
5.9
14.6

357.9
307.5
9.5
242.3
14.3
3.8
4.5
4.4
18.0
4.0
3.4
3.6
3.4
13.2
6.0
14.9

47.89
41.14
1.28
32.42
1.91
.51
.61
.59
2.40
.54
.46
.48
.46
1.77
.81
2.00

O peratives................................................................................................... .........................
Truck driv e rs ......................................................................................................................

9.0
5.8

1.93
1.25

13.8
8.9

14.1
9.2

14.4
9.3

1.93
1.25

Service w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Building custodians................................................................................ ..........................

8.1
6.7

1.74
1.43

10.5
8.3

10.8
8.5

11.0
8.6

1.47
1.16

R esidential building construction

See footnotes at end of table.




136

E-1. Employment in ©@ et®d industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
3@
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

R esidential build ing c o n s tru c tio n —C ontinued

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

84.1
52.2

18.04
11.21

122.0
70.3

125.1
72.2

127.6
73.6

17.07
9.84

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

457.9

100.00

736.8

755.2

769.5

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................
Civil engineers...................................................................................................................
Mechanical e n g in e e rs ......................................................................................................
D rafters...............................................................................................................................
Accountants and a u d ito rs ................................................................................................
Cost estim ators.................................................................................................................
Purchasing agents an d/or b u y e rs ..................................................................................

30.9
4.4
1.8
2.9
3.7
10.8
1.0

6.74
.96
.39
.64
.80
2.36
.22

49.2
7.0
2.9
3.1
5.9
17.4
1.6

50.4
7.2
2.9
3.2
6.1
17.9
1.7

51.3
7.4
3.0
3.3
6.2
18.2
1.7

6.67
.96
.39
.42
.80
2.36
.22

Managers, officials, and proprie tors..................................................................................

55.2

12.05

92.7

95.0

96.8

12.58

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Sales agents, sales representatives, real e s ta te ..........................................................

2.9
2.0

.64
.45

4.7
3.3

4.8
3.4

4.9
3.4

.64
.45

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ......... ...................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s .......................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................

35.5
2.2
5.3
6.2
3.6
10.4
1.8

7.75
.49
1.15
1.35
.79
2.27
.40

55.4
3.6
8.5
9.9
5.8
15.5
3.0

56.8
3.7
8.7
10.2
6.0
15.9
3.0

57.9
3.8
8.9
10.4
6.1
16.2
3.1

7.52
.49
1.15
1.35
.79
2.11
.40

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Construction craft w o rk e rs ................................................................................................
Insulation w o rk e rs .............................................................................................................
B ricklayers.........................................................................................................................
C arp ente rs.........................................................................................................................
Cement masons and terrazzo w o rk e rs ..........................................................................
Drywall applicators............................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Fitters, pipelaying..............................................................................................................
Reinforcing-iron w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Structural steel w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Painters and paperhangers.............................................................................................
Plumbers and pip e fitte rs ..................................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ..............................................................................
M illw rights............................................................................................................................

208.9
159.0
1.1
8.2
99.3
13.8
1.6
3.6
2.0
7.5
8.9
4.1
7.1
1.6
5.3

339.7
254.8
1.7
12.1
162.3
22.2
2.5
5.8
3.1
11.2
12.7
6.7
11.4
2.6
8.5

354.8
266.1
1.8
12.7
169.5
23.2
2.7
6.1
3.3
11.7
13.2
7.0
11.9
2.7
8.8

25.7
2.1
3.3
16.5

348.2
261.2
1.7
12.4
166.3
22.7
2.6
5.9
3.2
11.5
13.0
6.8
11.7
2.6
8.7
5.4
26.4
2.2
3.3
16.9

26.9
2.2
3.4
17.2

46.11
34.58
.23
1.65
22.02
3.01
.34
.79
.43
1.52
1.72
.90
1.55
.35
1.15
.72
3.49
.29
.44
2.24

N onresidential building c o n s tru c tio n

S heet-m etal w orke rs and tin s m ith s .........................................................................................

3.3

Blue-collar worker supervisors..........................................................................................
C abinetm akers....................................................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs .................................................................................
Heavy equipment op erators..............................................................................................

12.7
1.3
2.0
10.3

45.62
34.72
.23
1.79
21.68
3.01
.34
.79
.43
1.65
1.93
.90
1.55
.35
1.15
.72
2.77
.29
.44
2.24

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Metalworking o p e ra tiv e s ..................................................................................................
Truck driv e rs ......................................................................................................................

18.1
5.3
6.5

3.95
1.16
1.43

29.1
8.5
10.5

29.8
8.7
10.8

30.4
8.9
11.0

3.95
1.16
1.43

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

3.3
2.9

.73
.63

5.4
4.6

5.5
4.7

5.6
4.8

.73
.63

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Construction laborers except trade h e lp e rs ..................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

103.1
1.8
40.8

22.52
.39
8.92

160.6
2.8
55.5

164.6
2.9
56.9

167.7
3.0
58.0

21.79
.39
7.53

See footnotes at end of table.




137

5.3

5.5

E-1. Employment in seiected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

M anufacturing
Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

18,848.3

100.00

22,580.1

23,110.2

23,753.0

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Electrical e n ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers ..........................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ......................................................................................................
D rafters...................................... ........................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians..............................................................................
Computer program m ers...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................

1,936.5
162.7
120.4
118.8
112.2
137.7
73.1
51.0
131.7

10.27
.86
.64
.63
.60
.73
.39
.27
.70

2,640.3
268.2
173.2
174.6
99.1
220.8
108.9
87.2
164.1

2,652.7
263.9
173.6
176.6
101.4
219.6
110.9
88.0
167.2

2,717.3
270.1
178.3
181.9
105.0
224.8
113.6
90.2
172.0

11.48
1.14
.75
.76
.44
.95
.48
.38
.72

Managers, officials, and proprie tors..................................................................................

1,260.1

6.69

1,673.2

1,714.2

1,763.9

7.42

Sales w o rke rs.......................................................................................................................

413.7

2.19

460.9

477.7

491.4

2.07

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Production clerks ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s .........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ......................................................................

2,215.3
131.5
268.5
141.4
302.6
103.7
129.9
155.7
148.8

11.75
.70
1.42
.75
1.61
.55
.69
.83
.79

2,653.9
151.4
333.8
176.3
384.3
124.1
150.2
180.8
167.5

2,712.9
155.2
342.8
177.9
392.7
126.7
154.6
186.2
169.8

2,787.9
159.7
352.6
182.7
404.0
130.1
159.1
191.0
174.4

11.74
.67
1.48
.77
1.70
.55
.67
.81
.73

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs............... .........................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Toolmakers and diem akers.............................................................................................
Typesetters and com positors..........................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
Inspectors ..........................................................................................................................
Testers ...............................................................................................................................

3,499.8
123.7
215.7
173.4
152.1
147.0
84.7
616.2
376.3
109.9

18.57
.66
1.14
.92
.81
.78
.45
3.27
2.00
.58

4,211.1
152.0
270.0
208.7
188.1
173.1
71.1
736.9
477.6
141.3

4,323.4
155.1
278.1
215.7
192.7
178.4
74.1
756.0
485.5
142.2

4,450.3
159.1
286.5
222.8
198.7
184.3
75.7
777.8
497.9
146.4

18.71
.67
1.20
.93
.83
.77
.32
3.27
2.10
.62

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
A ssem b le rs........................................................................................................................
Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................
Electrical and electronic assemblers .............................................................................
Machine assem blers.........................................................................................................
Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs .....................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l.......................................................
Lathe machine operators, m e ta l.....................................................................................
Machine tool operators, com bination.............................................................................
Punch press operators, m e ta l.........................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................
Production packagers.......................................................................................................
Painters, production..........................................................................................................
Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, garm ent...........................................
Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, nongarm ent....................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs .................................................................................................
Truck d riv e rs ......................................................................................................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers............................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper and allied products.................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied products .........................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and plastic products..............................
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable g o o d s .....................................................

7,570.1
305.1
98.6
284.5
169.8
115.0
114.4
135.9
152.1
146.5
313.7
432.4
98.0
511.5
118.6
254.6
197.3
98.8
92.1
145.8
189.7
213.4

40.16
1.62
.52
1.51
.90
.61
.61
.72
.81
.78
1.66
2.29
.52
2.71
.63
1.35
1.05
.52
.49
.77
1.01
1.13

8,715.5
359.6
130.8
363.4
208.2
136.3
122.1
154.5
196.3
166.4
355.0
473.5
111.5
534.1
141.0
290.6
215.1
123.5
97.1
172.0
250.3
223.1

8,942.1
375.7
132.1
360.3
212.4
139.2
125.5
158.3
201.4
172.4
367.3
490.4
114.3
540.1
144.3
300.2
226.9
126.3
100.1
177.2
266.2
229.8

9,183.9
394.4
136.2
369.5
220.5
143.7
129.8
163.1
208.5
179.3
380.4
504.6
118.3
527.6
146.2
310.7
236.7
130.3
105.0
182.8
276.1
233.2

38.69
1.63
.57
1.56
.92
.60
.54
.68
.87
.75
1.59
2.12
.49
2.34
.62
1.30
.98
.55
.43
.77
1.15
.99

See footnotes at end of table.




138

E-1. Employment: en selected industries and ©eeupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—-Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1995 alternatives

1982

Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

M anufacturing—C ontinued

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

348.6
224.8

1.85
1.19

400.7
253.8

410.5
260.9

422.2
268.4

1.78
1.13

Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s .................................................................................................................

1,604.2
127.6

8.51
.68

1,824.6
146.8

1,876.7
152.2

1,936.0
157.8

8.12
.66

Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

11,112.4

100.00

14,051.1

14,283.5

14,750.5

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Electrical e n ginee rs.........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers .........................................................................................................
Mechanical en g in e e rs .....................................................................................................
D rafters...............................................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
Computer program m ers..................................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors...............................................................................................
Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs .................................................................................

1,403.3
156.9
102.7
95.2
98.3
133.3
58.1
86.2
64.6

12.63
1.41
.92
.86
.88
1.20
.52
.78
.58

2,001.9
261.6
153.1
148.7
87.7
215.6
91.1
112.7
82.7

1,993.8
257.1
152.9
149.9
89.6
214.2
92.5
113.9
83.4

2,043.6
263.1
157.0
154.3
92.9
219.3
94.8
117.3
85.9

13.96
1.80
1.07
1.05
.63
1.50
.65
.80
.58

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

742.6

6.68

1,038.3

1,054.3

1,089.1

7.38

Sales w orke rs......................................................................................................................

159.9

1.44

189.7

195.4

203.3

1.37

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Production clerks ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries........................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

1,246.9
70.2
152.9
108.3
179.0
64.7
71.0
106.4

11.22
.63
1.38
.97
1.61
.58
.64
.96

1,549.1
84.4
196.2
138.9
226.0
80.5
85.2
122.3

1,567.8
85.7
200.2
139.1
228.6
82.1
87.1
123.1

1,619.7
88.6
207.3
142.9
236.1
85.0
90.4
126.8

10.98
.60
1.40
.97
1.60
.57
.61
.86

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
Millwrights ..........................................................................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Machine tool setters, m etalworking...............................................................................
Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s ...............................................................................
Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................
Inspectors ..........................................................................................................................
T e s te rs ...............................................................................................................................

2,191.7
84.7
119.5
87.2
51.4
113.2
54.4
68.4
136.1
372.7
266.7
76.6

19.72
.76
1.08
.78
.46
1.02
.49
.62
1.22
3.35
2.40
.69

2,764.1
109.7
164.3
111.5
66.7
145.1
66.6
83.2
161.9
458.9
344.9
105.3

2,819.6
111.5
168.4
114.7
68.3
147.8
67.8
85.7
166.5
468.4
348.1
105.2

2,908.7
114.2
173.2
118.9
69.8
152.5
69.9
89.2
171.8
483.2
358.0
108.2

19.74
.78
1.18
.80
.48
1.03
.47
.60
1.17
3.28
2.44
.74

O peratives............................................................................................................................
Assembler occupations ....................................................................................................
A ssem b le rs.......................................................................................................................
Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................
Electrical and electronic assemblers ............................................................................
Machine assem blers........................................................................................................
Machine tool operators.....................................................................................................
Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs ....................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l.......................................................
Lathe machine operators, m e ta l....................................................................................
Milling/planing machine o p e ra to rs ................................................................................
Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................
Machine tool operators, numerical c o n tro l...................................................................

4,276.9
1,248.2
253.6
98.6
284.5
169.8
890.9
115.0
114.4
135.9
60.2
152.1
66.1

38.49
11.23
2.28
.89
2.56
1.53
8.02
1.03
1.03
1.22
.54
1.37
.59

5,189.8
1,547.5
300.1
130.8
363.4
208.2
1,059.2
136.3
122.1
154.5
67.2
196.3
93.6

5,303.0
1,563.6
311.9
132.1
360.3
212.4
1,087.3
139.2
125.5
158.3
68.3
201.4
95.5

5,490.7
1,618.2
328.6
136.2
369.5
220.5
1,124.7
143.7
129.8
163.1
70.3
208.5
98.7

37.13
10.95
2.18
.93
2.52
1.49
7.61
.97
.88
1.11
.48
1.41
.67

Durable goods m anufacturing

See footnotes at end of table.




139

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives
Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Durable go ods m a nufa cturing—C ontinued
Punch press operators, m e ta l.........................................................................................
Welders and flamecutters .................................................................................................
Production pa ckagers........................................................................................................
Painters, p roductio n...........................................................................................................
Sawyers ...............................................................................................................................
Industrial truck operators...................................................................................................
Truck d riv e rs .......................................................................................................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and ch ip p e rs .............................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary m e ta ls .....................................................
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, durable g o o d s .............................................................

146.0
300.4
111.4
93.9
67.1
153.7
119.9
98.3
69.1
71.7

1.31
2.70
1.00
.85
.60
1.38
1.08
.88
.62
.65

165.8
341.2
133.8
106.1
80.9
181.7
136.5
122.8
81.6
83.8

171.9
353.1
137.3
108.4
82.7
187.2
145.2
125.6
84.5
86.6

178.7
365.8
142.5
112.2
86.0
193.8
152.7
129.6
87.3
90.3

1.20
2.47
.96
.76
.58
1.31
1.02
.88
.59
.61

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

192.1
121.2

1.73
1.09

234.4
145.4

238.6
148.6

246.3
153.5

1.67
1.04

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

898.9
91.0

8.09
.82

1,083.8
108.0

1,111.0
112.0

1,149.1
116.3

7.78
.78

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

462.2

100.00

558.0

613.1

658.2

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Civil engineers...................................................................................................................
Industrial engineers ..........................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ......................................................................................................
D rafters...............................................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................
Cost estim ators.................................................................................................................
Purchasing agents and bu yers........................................................................................

37.3
1.1
1.9
3.4
11.3
3.1
3.1
2.7

8.07
.24
.42
.74
2.45
.67
.67
.58

44.6
1.3
2.6
4.4
11.3
4.1
3.7
3.2

49.0
1.5
2.9
4.8
12.4
4.5
4.1
3.6

52.6
1.6
3.1
5.2
13.3
4.9
4.4
3.8

8.00
.24
.47
.79
2.03
.74
.66
.58

Managers, officials, and proprie tors..................................................................................

34.4

7.43

49.3

54.2

58.1

8.83

Sales w o rke rs .......................................................................................................................

10.8

2.34

12.0

13.2

14.2

2.15

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Office machine operators ................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s .......................................................................................
Production c le rk s ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................
Shipping packers .............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

43.2
2.2
3.7
7.6
2.6
1.3
2.6
7.6
2.2
1.8
2.2

9.34
.48
.79
1.64
.56
.28
.56
1.64
.49
.39
.48

49.7
2.2
4.0
9.5
2.8
1.5
3.1
8.5
2.7
2.2
2.2

54.6
2.4
4.3
10.4
3.1
1.7
3.4
9.3
3.0
2.4
2.4

58.6
2.6
4.7
11.2
3.4
1.8
3.7
10.0
3.2
2.6
2.6

8.90
.40
.71
1.70
.51
.28
.56
1.52
.48
.39
.40

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Structural steel w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................
Layout markers, m e ta l......................................................................................................
M achinists...... ...................................................................................................................
Punch press setters, m e ta l..............................................................................................
Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s ...............................................................................
Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators...............................................................................
Inspectors ..........................................................................................................................

107.9
2.0
3.6
4.5
3.2
6.3
3.1
1.5
17.9
2.0
15.4
4.1
4.8

23.33
.43
.78
.98
.70
1.36
.67
.32
3.87
.42
3.33
.88
1.04

147.7
3.2
5.8
7.1
5.2
7.0
4.6
1.8
20.5
2.1
18.6
5.5
7.5

162.3
3.6
6.4
7.8
5.7
7.7
5.0
2.0
22.5
2.3
20.5
6.0
8.2

174.2
3.8
6.9
8.4
6.1
8.3
5.4
2.1
24.1
2.5
22.0
6.4
8.8

26.47
.58
1.04
1.28
.93
1.26
.82
.32
3.67
.38
3.34
.98
1.34

Fabricated s tru c tu ra l metal products

See footnotes at end of table.




140

E=1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Fa bricated structural m etal prod uc ts— C ontinued

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
A ssem blers........................................................................................................................
Machine tool o p erators....................................................................................................
Drill press and boring machine operators...................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, m eta!......................................................
Machine tool operators, com bination...........................................................................
Punch press operators, metal ......................................................................................
Power brake, bending machine operators, m e ta l......................................................
Shear and slitter operators, metal ...............................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters...............................................................................................
Packing and inspecting operatives................................................................................
Painters, production.........................................................................................................
S aw yers..............................................................................................................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers............................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, primary m e tals....................................................

182.1
33.1
46.0
4.4
3.2
6.0
13.4
9.0
5.8
53.1
4.0
7.4
2.5
4.8
7.2
4.1
2.5

39.39
7.16
9.95
.96
.68
1.30
2.89
1.96
1.26
11.50
.86
1.60
.53
1.04
1.56
.88
.54

202.7
36.6
50.0
4.8
2.8
6.7
14.4
9.8
6.5
59.7
4.2
7.8
3.0
5.8
8.7
4.3
3.0

222.8
40.2
54.9
5.3
3.0
7.4
15.9
10.8
7.1
65.6
4.7
8.6
3.3
6.4
9.5
4.8
3.3

239,1
43.1
59.0
5.7
3.3
7.9
17.0
11.6
7.6
70.4
5.0
9.2
3.5
6.9
10.2
5.1
3.6

36.33
6.56
8.96
.86
.50
1.20
2.59
1.76
1.16
10.69
.76
1.40
.53
1.04
1.56
.78
.54

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

6.3
4.5

1.37
.98

7.6
5.5

8.4
6.0

9.0
6.4

1.37
.98

Laborers, except farm .........................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

40.3
17.4

8.72
3.77

44.3
19.3

48.7
21.3

52.3
22.8

7.94
3.47

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

489.7

100.00

731.5

762.5

778.6

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ...................................................................
Electrical en g in e e rs ..........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers ..........................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ......................................................................................................
D rafters...............................................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians .............................................................................
Computer programmers ...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
D esigners...........................................................................................................................
Writers and editors ...........................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................
Purchasing agents and bu yers.......................................................................................

175.0
29.4
12.5
5.3
4.0
29.3
2.9
24.6
7.3
2.7
2.7
6.9
3.4
4.1

35.74
6.00
2.55
1.08
.81
5.99
.58
5.03
1.48
.56
.56
1.42
.69
.84

284.0
51.1
20.9
11.0
4.0
54.0
4.8
39.8
11.5
4.3
4.1
10.6
5.1
5.8

296.0
53.3
21.8
11.4
4.2
56.2
5.0
41.4
12.0
4.5
4.2
11.1
5.3
6.0

302.2
54.4
22.3
11.7
4.3
57.4
5.1
42.3
12.2
4.6
4.3
11.3
5.4
6.2

38.82
6.98
2.86
1.50
.55
7.38
.65
5.43
1.57
.59
.56
1.45
.69
.79

O ffice, com puting, and accounting m achines

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

54.0

11.03

86.1

89.7

91.6

11.76

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................

5.6

1.14

7.2

7.5

7.6

.98

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors...........................................................................................................
General clerks, office ......................................................................................................
Computer operators..........................................................................................................
Data entry operators ........................................................................................................
Order c le rk s .......................................................................................................................
Production clerks .............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................

89.8
5.4
1.5
11.3
4.9
1.7
1.5
9.8
17.3
2.9
2.6
2.7

18.35
1.10
.30
2.31
1.00
.34
.31
2.00
3.52
.60
.54
.55

119.0
6.3
1.9
15.4
8.6
.7
2.3
12.2
22.4
4.0
3.9
3.1

124.0
6.6
2.0
16.1
9.0
.7
2.3
12.7
23.4
4.1
4.1
3.2

126.6
6.7
2.0
16.4
9.2
.7
2.4
13.0
23.9
4.2
4.2
3.3

16.26
.86
.26
2.11
1.18
.09
.31
1.67
3.07
.54
.54
.42

See footnotes at end of table.




141

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives
Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

O ffice, com puting, and accounting m achines— C ontinued

Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

7.7

1.58

7.9

8.3

8.5

1.09

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Computer service technicians...... ..................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
Millwrights .........................................................................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................... ...........................................................
Inspectors ..........................................................................................................................
Testers ...............................................................................................................................

46.6
2.1
1.3
2.5
1.2
1.3
7.9
13.8
7.3

9.52
.44
.26
.51
.24
.27
1.62
2.81
1.49

75.0
8.8
1.9
3.8
3.0
1.9
11.3
19.5
10.9

78.1
9.2
2.0
3.9
3.1
2.0
11.8
20.4
11.3

79.8
9.4
2.0
4.0
3.2
2.1
12.1
20.8
11.6

10.25
1.21
.26
.51
.41
.27
1.55
2.67
1.49

O peratives........... .................................................................................................................
Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................
Electrical and electronic assemblers .................................................................... ........
Machine assem blers........................................................................................................
Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs ....................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l.......................................................
Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................
Machine tooi operators, numerical c o n tro l...................................................................
Welders and fiam ecutters................................................................................................
Packing and inspecting operatives................................................................................

102.5
24.6
42.4
7.7
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.0

20.93
5.03
8.65
1.57
.22
.27
.21
.26
.23
.21

138.4
35.0
53.3
10.5
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.9
1.7
1.5

144.3
36.5
55.5
11.0
1.7
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.6

147.3
37.2
56.7
11.2
1.7
2.1
1.6
2.1
1.8
1.6

18.92
4.78
7.29
1.44
.22
.27
.21
.26
.23
.21

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians......................................................................................... .................
G ua rds................................................................................................................................

5.1
2.3
1.3

1.03
.48
.26

7.0
2.9
1.9

7.3
3.0
2.0

7.4
3.1
2.0

.96
.40
.26

Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................ ................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................
Stock handlers ..................................................................................................................

11.1
1.5
1.3

2.27
.31
.27

15.0
2.3
2.0

15.7
2.4
2.0

16.0
2.4
2.1

2.05
.31
.27

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

568.7

100.00

861.9

849.8

855.4

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Electrical e n ginee rs.........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers ...................................................................................................................
Mechanical en g in e e rs.....................................................................................................

107.5
26.8
6.1
3.8

189.2
61.9
10.5
7.6

186.5
61.0
10.4
7.5
4.7
34.5
5.0
7.2
5.3

187.7
61.4
10.5
7.6
4.8
34.8
5.1
7.3
5.3

E lectronic co m p on ents and accessories

D ra fte rs ........... ...............................................................................................................................

4.7

Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians .............................................................................
Computer program m ers..................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ...........................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors ........................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists ............................................................................
Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs .........................................................................................

23.0
2.9
4.0
2.7
4.7
2.5
3.7

18.90
4.71
1.07
.66
.83
4.05
.51
.70
.47
.33
.44
.65

Managers, officials, and proprie tors .........................................................................................

37.8

Sales w o rk e rs .................................................................................................................................
Clerical w orke rs................................................................................... ...................................
Accounting clerks ......................................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ....................................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors..........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................
Computer operators.........................................................................................................
Data entry operators .......................................................................................................
Order c le rk s ......................................................................................................................

See footnotes at end of tabie.




142

7.7

7.7

5.8

3.8
5.6

3.8
5.6

21.95
7.18
1.22
.88
.56
4.06
.59
.85
.62
.90
.45
.65

6.65

65.6

64.7

65.1

7.61

5.6

.98

7.8

7.7

7.8

.91

63.3
4.2
1.2
1.4
5.7
1.7
1.3
1.6

11.14
.74
.21
.24
1.01
.29
.23
.28

86.3
5.4
1.3
2.1
8.7
2.5
1.0
2.4

85.1
5.3
1.3
2.0
8.6
2.5
1.0
2.4

85.7
5.3
1.3
2.0
8.7
2.5
1.0
2.4

10.02
.62
.15
.24
1.01
.29
.12
.28

4.8

35.0
5.1
7.3
5.4
7.8
3.8

E-1. Employment In ®@teet®d Industries and ©eeupatfons, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

E lectro nic c om pone nts

Moderate

High

and accessories— C ontinued

Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ................................................ ......................................
Personnel c le rk s ...............................................................................................................
Production c le rk s ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s .........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ........ .............................................................

1.3
1.3
6.3
12.6
3.0
3.3
2.6
4.5

0.23
.23
1.10
2.22
.53
.58
.46
.80

2.0
2.0
9.5
16.1
3.6
5.0
3.3
5.4

2.0
1.9
9.4
15.9
3.5
4.9
3.3
5.3

2.0
1.9
9.4
16.0
3.5
5.0
3.3
5.3

0.24
.23
1.10
1.87
.41
.58
.39
.62

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Toolmakers and diem akers.............................................................................................
Etchers and engravers.....................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
In sp e cto rs..........................................................................................................................
Testers ...............................................................................................................................

80.8
1.7
4.6
3.6
4.2
3.7
2.3
14.7
19.4
12.1

14.20
.30
.81
.64
.74
.66
.41
2.59
3.42
2.13

113.9
2.6
7.0
5.5
6.4
4.9
3.5
22.4
21.6
18.4

112.3
2.5
6.9
5.5
6.3
4.8
3.5
22.1
21.3
18.2

113.1
2.5
7.0
5.5
6.3
4.9
3.5
22.2
21.5
18.3

13.22
.30
.82
.64
.74
.57
.41
2.60
2.51
2.14

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Assembler o ccu pation s...... ................................................................. ,............................
Coil fin is h e rs ......................................................................................................................
Electrical machinery equipment assem blers.................................................................
Electrical and electronic a sse m blers.............................................................................
Machine assem blers.........................................................................................................
Wirers, electronic ........................................................................ ......................................
E lectroplators......................................................................................................................
Machine tool operators, com binatio n..............................................................................
Machine tool operators, numerical c o n tro l.....................................................................
Welders and fla m e cu tte rs.................................................................................................
Packing and inspecting o p e ra tive s..................................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec................................................
Coil w inde rs............................................. ...........................................................................

224.8
133.6
6.9
8.6
76.3
3.9
6.8
4.2
3.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
6.7
8.6

39.52
23.48
1.21
1.51
13.41
.69
1.19
.73
,56
.40
.41
.40
1.17
1.52

320.3
190.8
10.4
12.0
108.2
6.0
10.3
3.1
4.8
3.4
3.6
3.4
8.8
7.9

315.8
188.1
10.3
11.8
106.6
5.9
10.1
3.1
4.7
3.4
3.5
3.4
8.7
7.8

317.9
189.3
10.3
11.9
107.3
5.9
10.2
3.1
4.8
3.4
3.5
3.4
8.8
7.8

37.16
22.13
1.21
1.39
12.55
.69
1.19
.36
.56
.40
.41
.40
1.02
.91

Service w orke rs..... ...............................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

7.4
4.4

1.30
.78

9.2
4.7

9.1
4.7

9.1
4.7

1.07
.55

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................

41.6

7.31

69.6

68.6

69.1

8.07

Total, ail occupations...................................................................................................

690.0

100.00

845.8

859.1

870.5

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ...................................................................
Industrial engineers ..........................................................................................................
Mechanical e n g in e e rs ......................................................................................................
D rafters...............................................................................................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians ..............................................................................
Computer program m ers...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
D esigners...........................................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists......................................................................
Purchasing agents an d/or b u y e rs ..................... ............................................................

60.4
4.8
3.6
2.5
4.0
1.6
1.6
2.8
4.9
2.6
2.5

8.75
.69
.52
.37
.58
.23
.23
.41
.71
.38
.36

102.6
5.9
5.4
2.1
8.5
3.4
3.4
4.5
6.0
3.2
3.1

104.3
6.0
5.5
2.1
8.7
3.5
3.5
4.6
6.1
3.3
3.1

105.6
6.1
5.6
2.1
8.8
3.5
3.5
4.6
6.2
3.3
3.2

12.14
.70
.64
.25
1.01
.40
.40
.53
.71
.38
.36

Managers, officials, and proprie tors..................................................................................

27.6

3.99

41.4

42.1

42.6

4.90

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................

4.3

.62

4.9

4.9

5.0

.58

M o to r vehicles and equipm ent

See footnotes at end of table.




143

E-1. E m ploym ent in seie c te d in dustries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives-—
Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

[Motor vehicles and e q u ip m e n t-c o n tin u e d

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Production clerks ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving clerks .........................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

47.0
2.4
1.4
7.2
4.3
6.2
4.4
5.0

6.81
.35
.20
1.05
.63
.91
.64
.73

57.4
3.0
1.7
8.9
5.4
7.7
5.1
5.7

58.3
3.0
1.7
9.1
5.4
7.8
5.2
5.8

59.1
3.1
1.7
9.2
5.5
7.9
5.2
5.9

6.79
.35
.20
1.06
.63
.91
.60
.67

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Eiectricians.........................................................................................................................
Plumbers and pip e fitte rs..................................................................................................
Automotive m echanics.....................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................
Millwrights ..........................................................................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Machine tool setters, m etalworking................................................................................
Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s ................................................................................
Toolmakers and diem akers.............................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
in s p e c to rs ..........................................................................................................................
Testers ...............................................................................................................................

153.1
9.1
5.3
4.4
10.8
2.6
7.0
2.4
10.5
4.6
10.5
28.9
33.9
2.8

22.19
1.32
.77
.64
1.57
.37
1.01
.35
1.53
.67
1.52
4.19
4.91
.40

195.0
11.2
6.5
5.4
21.3
3.2
9.5
2.9
10.5
5.7
13.0
35.7
41.8
3.4

198.1
11.4
6.6
5.5
21.6
3.2
9.7
3.0
10.7
5.8
13.2
36.2
42.5
3.5

200.7
11.6
6.7
5.6
21.9
3.3
9.8
3.0
10.8
5.9
13.3
36.7
43.1
3.5

23.06
1.33
.77
.64
2.52
.37
1.13
.35
1.25
.67
1.53
4.22
4.95
.41

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Assembler occupations .....................................................................................................
Machine assem blers.........................................................................................................
All other assem blers.........................................................................................................
Machine tool operators......................................................................................................
Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs ....................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, m e ta l.......................................................
Lathe machine operators, m e ta l.....................................................................................
Milling/planing machine o p e ra to rs .................................................................................
Machine tool operators, com bination.............................................................................
Machine tool operators, tool ro o m ............................................................. ...................
Punch press operators, m e ta l.........................................................................................
Power brake, bending machine operators, m e ta l........................................................
Production pa ckagers........................................................................................................
Painters, production ...........................................................................................................
C hauffeurs...........................................................................................................................
Industrial truck operators...................................................................................................
Truck drivers .......................................................................................................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and ch ip p e rs.............................................................................

318.7
95.3
21.9
71.1
66.1
11.7
7.9
7.5
2.2
14.5
4.5
13.2
2.5
1.9
10.9
2.3
16.3
3.2
6.7

46.19
13.81
3.17
10.30
9.59
1.69
1.15
1.09
.32
2.10
.65
1.92
.36
.28
1.57
.33
2.36
.46
.97

355.3
97.0
20.4
73.8
72.9
14.4
6.3
9.2
2.7
15.3
5.6
13.6
3.1
2.4
8.5
2.8
17.0
3.9
8.3

360.8
98.5
20.8
74.9
74.0
14.6
6.4
9.4
2.8
15.6
5.7
13.8
3.2
2.4
8.7
2.9
17.3
4.0
8.4

365.7
99.9
21.0
75.9
75.0
14.8
6.5
9.5
2.8
15.8
5.7
14.0
3.2
2.4
8.8
2.9
17.5
4.1
8.5

42.00
11.47
2.42
8.72
8.62
1.70
.75
1.09
.32
1.81
.66
1.61
.37
.28
1.01
.33
2.01
.47
.98

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

20.8
14.7

3.01
2.14

23.7
16.2

24.0
16.5

24.4
16.7

2.80
1.92

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Conveyor operators and te n d e rs ...................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

58.2
3.7
2.3

8.43
.54
.34

65.5
4.6
2.9

66.5
4.7
2.9

67.4
4.8
3.0

7.74
.55
.34

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

611.8

100.00

741.6

692.1

687.9

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Aerc-astronautic engineers..............................................................................................
Electrical e n g in e e rs..........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers ..........................................................................................................

158.7
21.6
8.2
10.6

25.94
3.53
1.34
1.73

222.4
32.3
10.0
14.8

207.5
30.1
9.3
13.8

206.3
29.9
9.2
13.8

29.99
4.35
1.34
2.00

A irc ra ft and parts

See footnotes at end of table.




144

E-1. Employment in selected indy ©tries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Moderate

Low

High

A irc ra ft and parts—C ontinued
Mechanical engineers .....................................................................................................
D rafters..............................................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians .............................................................................
Computer program m ers..................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ...........................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors...............................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................
Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs .................................................................................

9.2
5.5
6.4
3.2
2.3
3.2
6.3
3.3
6.3

1.50
.89
1.05
.52
.37
.53
1.02
.53
1.03

12.8
4.4
8.9
4.4
3.7
6.3
8.2
3.9
7.6

12.0
4.1
8.3
4.2
3.5
5.9
7.6
3.7
7.1

11.9
4.1
8.3
4.1
3.4
5.9
7.6
3.7
7.1

1.73
.59
1.20
.60
.50
.86
1.10
.53
1.03

Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................

47.5

7.77

68.4

63.8

63.5

9.23

Sales w o rk e rs ......................................................................................................................

2.3

.38

2.6

2.4

2.4

.35

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................
Production c le rk s .............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

81.9
9.0
14.5
9.0
3.1
10.9

13.38
1.47
2.36
1.47
.51
1.78

96.3
10.9
17.5
11.5
3.8
12.7

89.9
10.2
16.4
10.8
3.6
11.8

89.3
10.1
16.3
10.7
3.5
11.7

12.99
1.47
2.36
1.56
.51
1.71

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Aircraft m e chanics............................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Machine tool setters, m etalworking...............................................................................
Sheet-metal workers and tin s m ith s...............................................................................
Toolmakers and diem akers............................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................

132.5
4.5
22.4
4.3
7.9
2.8
6.5
11.8
18.7

21.66
.74
3.66
.71
1.28
.45
1.06
1.93
3.05

153.7
5.5
26.1
5.2
7.4
3.3
7.9
14.3
18.9

143.4
5.1
24.3
4.9
6.9
3.1
7.3
13.4
17.6

142.5
5.1
24.2
4.9
6.9
3.1
7.3
13.3
17.5

20.72
.74
3.52
.71
1.00
.45
1.06
1.93
2.54

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Assembler occupations .....................................................................................................
Aircraft structure assemblers .........................................................................................
Electrical machinery equipment assem blers................................................................
Electrical and electronic assemblers ............................................................................
Machine assem blers........................................................................................................
All other assem blers........................................................................................................
Machine tool operators......................................................................................................
Drill press and boring machine o p e ra to rs ....................................................................
Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal .......................................................
Lathe machine operators, m e ta l....................................................................................
Milling/planing machine operators ................................................................................
Machine tool operators, com bination............................................................................
Machine tool operators, numerical c o n tro l...................................................................
Machine tool operators, tool ro o m ................................................................................
Punch press operators, m e ta l........................................................................................
Power brake, bending machine operators, m e ta l........................................................
Welders and flamecutters ................................................................................................
Painters, production ..........................................................................................................
Filers, grinders, buffers, and ch ip p e rs ............................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec...............................................
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, durable g o o d s .............................................................
R iveters................................................................................................................................

168.1
57.8
30.2
3.5
8.8
6.6
8.7
58.9
7.8
7.1
10.9
9.5
6.7
7.3
4.4
2.2
2.3
5.1
5.4
5.5
3.1
4.5
2.9

27.48
9.45
4.93
.57
1.44
1.08
1.43
9.63
1.27
1.17
1.78
1.55
1.10
1.20
.72
.36
.38
.83
.88
.91
.50
.74
.47

178.3
54.2
24.5
4.2
10.7
5.9
8.9
60.1
9.5
5.7
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.9
5.4
2.7
2.8
6.1
6.5
6.7
3.7
5.5
3.5

166.4
50.6
22.8
3.9
10.0
5.5
8.3
56.1
8.8
5.3
7.6
7.6
7.6
8.3
5.0
2.5
2.6
5.7
6.1
6.3
3.5
5.1
3.2

165.4
50.3
22.7
3.9
9.9
5.5
8.3
55.7
8.8
5.3
7.6
7.6
7.6
8.2
5.0
2.5
2.6
5.7
6.0
6.2
3.4
5.1
3.2

24.04
7.31
3.30
.57
1.44
.80
1.20
8.10
1.27
.77
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.20
.72
.36
.38
.83
.88
.91
.50
.74
.47

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians..........................................................................................................

9.7
5.0

1.58
.82

11.7
6.1

10.9
5.7

10.8
5.6

1.58
.82

Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................

11.0

1.80

8.2

7.7

7.6

1.11

See footnotes at end of table.




145

E-1. Employment in seSeeted industries and occupations, 19S2 and projected 1985 aiternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

N ondurable g o o d s m anufacturing
Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

7,735.9

100.00

8,529.0

8,826.7

9,002.5

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Chemical en ginee rs............................ .............................................................................
Mechanical engineers ......................................................................................................
Chemists ............................................................................................................................
Computer programmers ...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
Reporters and correspondents .......................................................................................
Writers and editors ...........................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................
Purchasing agents and/or b u y e rs ..................................................................................

533.2
26.6
23.6
45.8
15.0
15.0
38.4
44.9
45.5
18.6
23.4

6.89
.34
.31
.59
.19
.19
.50
.58
.59
.24
.30

638.4
36.1
25.9
52.9
17.8
25.4
48.8
56.8
51.4
20.6
25.9

658.9
37.1
26.8
54.6
18.4
26.1
50.5
58.6
53.3
21.3
26.8

673.7
38.1
27.6
55.9
18.8
26.7
51.4
59.6
54.7
21.9
27.5

7.46
.42
.30
.62
.21
.30
.57
.66
.60
.24
.30

Managers, officials, and proprie tors..................................................................................

517.4

6.69

634.9

659.9

674.8

7.48

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

253.8
29.2

3.28
.38

271.2
30.3

282.3
31.7

288.0
32.3

3.20
.36

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors.............. ............................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Computer operators..........................................................................................................
Data entry operators ........................................................................................................
Order c le rk s .......................................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s .......................................................................................
Production clerks ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s .........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

968.4
61.3
43.3
31.6
115.6
16.9
22.2
35.6
26.0
33.1
123.6
53.7
65.2
84.7
42.4

12.52
.79
.56
.41
1.49
.22
.29
.46
.34
.43
1.60
.69
.84
1.09
.55

1,104.8
67.0
45.2
35.8
137.6
18.8
19.4
40.3
28.4
37.4
158.3
60.8
69.7
95.6
45.2

1,145.1
69.5
47.0
38.0
142.6
19.5
20.0
41.9
29.3
38.8
164.1
63.1
72.6
99.1
46.7

1,168.2
71.1
47.8
38.6
145.4
20.0
20.4
42.8
29.7
39.8
167.9
64.5
74.1
100.5
47.6

12.97
.79
.53
.43
1.62
.22
.23
.47
.33
.44
1.86
.72
.82
1.12
.53

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Plumbers and pip e fitte rs..................................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics.....................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................
Millwrights ..........................................................................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Bookbinders, m achine......................................................................................................
Typesetters and com positors..........................................................................................
Camera operators, p rin tin g ..............................................................................................
Strippers, p rin tin g ..............................................................................................................
Letter press operators......................................................................................................
Offset lithographic press op erators................................................................................
Press operators and plate p rin ters.................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
Inspectors ..........................................................................................................................
Testers ...............................................................................................................................

1,308.1
39.0
25.8
18.4
15.1
96.2
86.2
19.3
38.9
23.3
79.8
21.2
23.4
31.9
80.9
15.8
243.4
109.6
33.3

16.91
.50
.33
.24
.19
1.24
1.11
.25
.50
.30
1.03
.27
.30
.41
1.05
.20
3.15
1.42
.43

1,446.9
42.3
27.4
17.6
16.4
105.8
97.2
23.0
43.0
26.4
65.0
27.3
31.2
32.4
98.9
15.4
278.0
132.7
36.0

1,503.9
43 6
28.1
18.3
16.8
109.7
101.0
23.5
44.8
27.9
67.9
28.8
33.0
34.1
104.8
16.0
287.6
137.3
37.0

1,541.7
45 0
28.8
18.8
17.3
113.3
103.9
24.3
46.2
28.5
69.3
29.3
33.7
34.8
107.0
16.8
294.6
140.0
38.2

17.04
49
.32
.21
.19
1.24
1.14
.27
.51
.32
.77
.33
.37
.39
1.19
.18
3.26
1.56
.42

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
A ssem blers........................................................................................................................
Bindeny workers, assem bly..............................................................................................
Pressers, hand ..................................................................................................................
Pressers, m a c h in e ............................................................................................................

3,293.2
51.5
30.8
21.2
20.9

42.57
.67
.40
.27
.27

3,525.7
59.5
28.9
26.0
25.5

3,639.1
63.8
30.5
26.2
25.7

3,693.2
65.8
31.2
25.6
25.1

41.23
.72
.35
.30
.29

Instrum ent re p a ire rs ...................................................................................................................

See footnotes at end of table.




146

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1995 alternatives

1982

Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

N ondurable go ods m anufacturing—C ontinued
Meat cutters and b u tch e rs...............................................................................................
Production p a ckagers.......................................................................................................
Sewers and s titc h e rs .........................................................................................................
Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, ga rm ent...........................................
Sewing machine operators, special equipment, garm ent...........................................
Sewing machine operators, regular equipment, nongarm ent....................................
Sewing machine operators, special equipment, nongarm ent....................................
All other sewers and stitchers .......................................................................................
Textile op erative s...............................................................................................................
Creelers, y a r n ....................................................................................................................
D offe rs................................................................................................................................
Folders, hand ....................................................................................................................
Knitting machine operators.............................................................................................
Spinners, fra m e .................................................................................................................
Twister tenders..................................................................................................................
W e a v e rs .............................................................................................................................
Yarn w inders......................................................................................................................
Transport equipment operatives......................................................................................
Industrial truck op e ra to rs.................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs..............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................
All other operatives............................................................................................................
Cutters, m a chine...............................................................................................................
Die cutters and clicking machine operators.............................. ...................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, meat and dairy products...................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food products......................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, paper and allied products.................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied products .........................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, rubber and plastic products..............................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, manufacturing, nec..............................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing ..............................................
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable g o o d s ......................................................
Mixing op eratives........... ..................................................................................................
Shoemaking machine o p e ra to rs.....................................................................................

54.6
321.0
717.4
510.1
75.1
88.1
28.5
15.6
308.7
13.5
18.4
23.4
19.5
24.4
13.6
27.9
15.8
322.9
100.9
141.8
77.4
1,341.1
22.9
18.8
42.4
51.8
91.9
142.6
160.6
47.0
18.2
209.2
30.3
51.5

0.71
4.15
9.27
6.59
.97
1.14
.37
.20
3.99
.17
.24
.30
.25
.32
.18
.36
.20
4.17
1.30
1.83
1.00
17.34
.30
.24
.55
.67
1.19
1.84
2.08
.61
.24
2.70
.39
.67

59.5
339.8
763.1
532.6
80.7
102.2
31.8
15.8
340.4
16.6
19.8
26.9
21.2
22.7
17.4
28.0
19.0
324.9
109.0
134.3
78.6
1,447.3
26.5
18.0
38.7
48.7
96.9
167.8
205.1
55.5
15.5
218.5
29.5
34.3

60.3
353.1
773.6
538.5
81.7
104.7
32.6
16.1
346.4
16.9
20.1
27.5
22.2
23.0
17.6
28.3
19.2
338.7
113.0
140.8
81.7
1,505.5
27.4
18.8
39.9
50.4
100.0
173.0
220.3
58.7
15.9
225.0
30.6
36.0

61.5
362.1
759.3
525.9
80.1
104.3
32.9
16.2
354.0
17.5
20.7
27.5
22.6
23.4
18.2
28.9
19.7
348.1
116.9
144.1
84.0
1,543.9
28.1
18.8
41.0
51.8
104.8
178.4
228.8
60.1
16.1
228.2
31.3
34.1

0.68
4.00
8.76
6.10
.93
1.19
.37
.18
3.93
.19
.23
.31
.25
.26
.20
.32
.22
3.84
1.28
1.60
.93
17.06
.31
.21
.45
.57
1.13
1.96
2.50
.66
.18
2.55
.35
.41

Service w orkers....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................
G ua rds................................................................................................................................

156.5
103.6
23.4

2.02
1.34
.30

166.3
108.4
25.4

171.9
112.3
26.2

175.9
114.8
26.9

1.95
1.27
.30

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Cannery w o rke rs...............................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................
Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................

705.3
55.5
36.6
50.4

9.12
.72
.47
.65

740.8
67.1
38.9
56.7

765.6
68.4
40.2
58.9

786.9
70.6
41.5
60.1

8.67
.77
.46
.67

Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

424.8

100.00

485.9

503.8

512.6

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Computer programmers ..................................................................................................
Commercial and graphic artists and designers ...........................................................
Photographers..................................................................................................................
Writers and editors ..........................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs...............................................................................................

76.5
1.2
3.7
4.7
23.9
1.1

18.01
.28
.86
1.11
5.63
.26

91.4
1.3
4.1
4.8
27.9
1.2

94.8
1.4
4.3
4.9
29.0
1.3

96.5
1.4
4.4
5.0
29.5
1.3

18.82
.27
.85
.98
5.75
.26

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

39.5

9.31

56.6

58.7

59.7

11.65

Sales w o rke rs......................................................................................................................

50.1

11.80

60.3

62.6

63.7

12.42

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................

91.8

21.62

104.9

108.8

110.7

21.60

Newspapers

See footnotes at end of table.




147

s=“1. EmpSoymsrs^ in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Newspapers—Continued
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................
Bookkeeoers, h a n d ..........................................................................................................
Circulation c le rk s ..............................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors..........................................................................................................
Customer service representatives, printing and publishing........................................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or work ............................................................................
File cle rk s ..........................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................
M e ssengers.......................................................................................................................
Computer operators.........................................................................................................
Data entry operators .......................................................................................................
Order c le rk s ......................................................................................................................
Production clerks .............................................................................................................
P roofreaders.....................................................................................................................
S ecretaries........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping packers .............................................................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................
Telephone ad takers, new spapers................................................................................
Telephone o p e ra to rs .......................................................................................................
Switchboard operators...................................................................................................

3.3
6.9
7.7
2.2
2.0
1.0
1.5
8.2
2.6
1.3
1.2
1.7
1.8
4.5
7.2
10.8
1.1
1.1
9.1
1.3
1.3

0.77
1.62
1.82
.51
.47
.24
.35
1.93
.62
.30
.28
.39
.43
1.07
1.70
2.55
.25
.26
2.13
.31
.31

3.7
6.8
8.7
2.5
2.3
1.2
1.2
9.2
3.0
1.4
.5
1.9
2.0
5.1
9.6
12.2
1.2
1.2
12.2
1.5
1.5

3.8
7.1
9.0
2.5
2.3
1.2
1.3
9.6
3.1
1.5
.5
2.0
2.1
5.3
9.9
12.7
1.3
1.3
12.6
1.6
1.6

3.9
7.2
9.2
2.6
2.4
1.2
1.3
9.7
3.2
1.5
.5
2.0
2.2
5.4
10.1
12.9
1.3
1.3
12.8
1.6
1.6

0.76
1.40
1.79
.51
.47
.24
.25
1.90
.62
.29
.10
.39
.42
1.05
1.97
2.51
.25
.25
2.50
.31
.31

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Printing trades craft w orke rs............................................................................................
Typesetters and com positors.........................................................................................
Lithographers and photoengravers................................................................................
Camera operators, printing ...........................................................................................
Photoengravers................................................................................................................
Platemakers ....................................................................................................................
Strippers, printing ...........................................................................................................
Printing press operators..................................................................................................
Letter press o p erators...................................................................................................
Offset lithographic press operators .............................................................................
All other press and plate printers ................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.........................................................................................

88.3
74.3
38.1
10.8
4.7
2.5
2.3
1.3
23.9
9.6
12.3
2.1
7.4

20.78
17.48
8.97
2.55
1.10
.60
.54
.31
5.64
2.25
2.89
.50
1.75

78.1
61.7
25.3
13.9
7.2
1.9
3.3
1.5
20.9
10.8
7.7
2.4
9.4

81.0
64.0
26.3
14.4
7.5
2.0
3.5
1.6
21.6
11.2
8.0
2.5
9.7

82.4
65.1
26.7
14.7
7.6
2.0
3.5
1.6
22.0
11.4
8.1
2.5
9.9

16.08
12.69
5.21
2.86
1.48
.39
.69
.31
4.29
2.22
1.58
.49
1.93

O peratives............................................................................................................................
Bindery workers, assem bly.............................................................................................
D elivery and route w o rk e rs ......................................................................................................
Truck drive rs.....................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing ..............................................
Miscellaneous operatives, nec, nondurable g o o d s .....................................................

56.6
1.3
21.3
3.8
1.0
16.5

13.32
.29
5.02
.90
.25
3.89

68.7
1.4
27.0
4.3
1.2
20.6

71.2
1.5
28.0
4.5
1.2
21.3

72.4
1.5
28.4
4.6
1.2
21.7

14.13
.29
5.55
.89
.24
4.23

Service w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Building custodians..........................................................................................................
G ua rds...............................................................................................................................

9.6
6.7
1.2

2.25
1.57
.29

10.8
7.5
1.4

11.2
7.8
1.4

11.4
7.9
1.4

2.22
1.55
.28

Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................

12.4

2.92

14.9

15.5

15.8

3.07

Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

199.8

100.00

274.6

279.8

282.5

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Chemical en ginee rs.........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers .........................................................................................................
Bioioaical s c ie n tis ts .........................................................................................................
Chemists .................................................................................. .........................................
Engineering and science technicians............................................................................
P harm acists......................................................................................................................

49.3
1.4
1.2
5.0
8.2
12.8
2.9

24.65
.69
.61
2.51
4.10
6.41
1.43

70.7
1.9
1.7
8.1
11.2
17.5
3.8

72.0
1.9
1.7
8.2
11.5
17.8
3.9

72.7
1.9
1.7
8.3
11.6
18.0
4.0

25.74
:69
.61
2.94
4.10
6.37
1.40

Drugs

See footnotes at end of table.




148

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

D rugs— C ontinued

Computer program m ers......... .........................................................................................
ComDuter systems analysts ............................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................

2.8
1.3

0.55
.90
1.38
.64

1.5
4.5
3.8
1.8

1.5
4.6
3.9
1.8

1.5
4.6
3.9
1.8

0.55
1.64
1.38

Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................

22.0

11.02

34.2

34.8

35.2

12.45

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................

5.7

2.83

7.2

7.3

7.4

2.60

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Order c le rk s .......................................................................................................................
Production c le rk s ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

36.7
2.4
1.5
3.8
1.3
1.0
10.3
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.4

18.37
1.19
.75
1.90
.66
.52
5.15
.72
.81
.95
.70

52.5
2.8
2.9
4.5
1.8
1.4
16.0
2.0
2.2
2.6
1.4

53.4
2.8
3.0
4.6
1.9
1.5
16.3
2.0
2.3
2.6
1.5

53.9
2.S
3.0
4.8
1.9
1.5
16.4
2.0
2.3
2.7
1.5

19.10
1.01
1.06
1.64

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
inspectors ..........................................................................................................................

24.0
2.3
1.7
5.7
3.6

11.99
1.16
.83
2.85
1.81

32.8
3.2
2.3
7.8
5.0

33.4
3.2
2.3
8.0
5.1

33.7
3.3
2.4
8.0

11.94
1.16
.83
2.85
1.81

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Production packagers.......................................................................................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs .................................................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied p ro d u c ts .........................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonm anufacturing..............................................

43.5
16.8
1.6
12.9
1.2

21.76
8.43
.81
6.45
.58

55.8
23.2
2.2
17.7
1.6

56.9
23.6
2.3
18.1
1.6

57.4
23.8
2.3
18.2

1.6

20.32
8.43
.81
6.46
.58

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................
G ua rds................................................................................................................................

6.9
4.0
1.2

3.47
2.00
.61

8.5
4.5
1.7

8.7
4.6
1.7

8.7
4.6
1.7

3.10
1.64
.61

Laborers, except farm .........................................................................................................
Animal caretake rs.............................................................................................................

11.8
1.1

5.91
.56

13.1
1.5

13.3
1.6

13.4
1.6

4.76

1.1
1.8

5.1

.64

.66
.52
5.82
.72
.81
.95

.52

.56

industrial organic chem icals

174.3

100.00

218.2

222.9

224.1

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ...................................................................
Chemical en ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers ..........................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ......................................................................................................
Chemists ............................................................................................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians .............................................................................
Computer systems analysts ...........................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

41.6
6.3
1.1
2.4
5.8
1.2
1.0
2.2

23.84
3.60
.62
1.40
3.30
.71
.60
1.25

55.8
8.2
1.3
3.0
7.2
2.2
2.2
2.7

57.0
8.4
1.4
3.1
7.4
2.2
2.2
2.8

57.3
8.4
1.4
3.1
7.4
2.2
2.2
2.8

25.56
3.76
.62
1.38
3.30
.99
.99
1.24

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

16.7

9.56

22.7

23.2

23.3

10.41

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................

2.4

1.39

2.8

2.8

2.8

1.27

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................

21.4
2.0
1.9

12.31
1.17
1.12

29.2
2.5
5.1

29.8
2.6
5.3

30.0
2.6
5.3

13.37
1.16
2.36

See footnotes at end of table.




149

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

in du strial o rganic chem icals—Continued
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
S tenographers...................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

5.3
1.1
1.3
1.2

3.04
.64
.75
.70

6.6
1.4
1.6
1.5

6.7
1.4
1.7
1.5

6.8
1.4
1.7
1.5

3.02
.63
.74
.69

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Electricians.........................................................................................................................
Plumbers and p ipe fitters..................................................................................................
Instrument repairers..........................................................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
M illw righ ts..........................................................................................................................
M achinists............................................... ..........................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................

39.4
2.4
4.2
2.6
3.4
2.8
1.6
1.5
10.1

22.60
1.39
2.40
1.50
1.94
1.59
.94
.84
5.81

47.8
3.0
5.6
3.2
4.2
3.4
2.0
1.8
11.4

48.8
3.1
5.7
3.3
4.3
3.5
2.1
1.8
11.7

49.1
3.1
5.8
3.3
4.3
3.5
2.1
1.9
11.8

21.90
1.38
2.57
1.49
1.93
1.57
.94
.83
5.25

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................
Production packagers.......................................................................................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs................................................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, chemicals and allied p ro d u c ts .........................

42.7
1.1
1.2
1.0
33.0

24.48
.65
.68
.59
18.94

49.3
1.4
1.5
1.3
38.5

50.4
1.4
1.5
1.3
39.4

50.7
1.4
1.5
1.3
39.6

22.61
.64
.68
.59
17.66

Service w orke rs......................... ..........................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

2.8
1.4

1.63
.82

3.5
1.8

3.6
1.8

3.6
1.8

1.61
.81

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Loaders, tank cars and tru c k s .......................................................................................

7.3
1.4

4.19
.83

7.2
1.8

7.3
1.8

7.3
1.8

3.28
.82

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

5,719.8

100.00

6,721.7

6,923.8

7,053.2

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Electrical e n ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
Airplane p ilo ts ....................................................................................................................
Announcers ........................................................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................

449.3
46.4
38.5
49.2
44.0
34.7

7.86
.81
.67
.86
.77
.61

618.9
82.0
71.0
65.8
55.0
45.6

630.9
83.8
73.0
66.7
55.5
46.6

637.6
84.4
73.6
67.4
55.6
47.4

9.11
1.21
1.05
.96
.80
.67

Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................
Postmasters and mail superintendents.........................................................................
Railroad conductors .........................................................................................................

514.4
28.3
26.7

8.99
.49
.47

664.1
22.6
16.8

683.2
24.4
18.0

694.7
25.0
19.4

9.87
.35
.26

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Travel ag ents.....................................................................................................................

140.5
58.2

2.46
1.02

233.7
82.5

238.6
84.5

239.9
84.7

3.45
1.22

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ..........................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors...........................................................................................................
Customer service representatives.................................................................................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o r k ............................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................
Postal mail c a rrie rs ..........................................................................................................
Postal service clerks .......................................................................................................
Meter readers, u tilities.....................................................................................................
Reservation ag e n ts...........................................................................................................
Ticket a g e n ts .....................................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

1,904.0
51.0
36.1
60.2
88.9
52.0
186.0
234.1
306.5
28.5
52.9
49.3
84.5
41.0
41.9

33.29
.89
.63
1.05
1.56
.91
3.25
4.09
5.36
50
.92
.86
1.48
.72
.73

2,038.6
56.0
40.3
77.7
120.4
63.5
232.5
208.0
233.0
35.2
54.0
47.9
107.8
43.8
44.7

2,115.9
57.5
41.2
79.9
123.8
65.1
238,8
222.7
251.8
35.6
54.9
48.9
110.1
45.0
45.8

2,148.9
58.3
41.7
80.8
124.8
66.5
242.3
227.7
257.5
36.2
55.6
49.9
111.7
45.4
46.6

30.56
.83
.59
1.15
1.79
.94
3.45
3.22
3.64
.51
.79
.71
1.59
.65
.66

T ransp orta tion, com m unications, and utilitie s

See footnotes at end of table.




150

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 19SS alternatives— Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Transp orta tion, com m unications, and u tilitie s—C ontinued
Central office operators ..................................................................................................
Directory assistance operators ......................................................................................

108.7
37.5

1.90
.66

84.2
41.8

86.9
43.1

87.5
43.4

1.26
.62

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Aircraft m e chanics...........................................................................................................
Automotive m echanics....................................................................................................
Communications equipment mechanics .......................................................................
Central office re paire rs..................................................................................................
Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................
Cable sp lice rs...................................................................................................................
Line installers, repairers..................................................................................................
Railroad car repairers......................................................................................................
Installers, repairers, section m aintainers......................................................................
Station installers...............................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................

1,080.8
52.7
42.8
91.8
50.2
49.1
41.8
90.0
24.2
74.0
58.9
147.6

18.90
.92
.75
1.60
.88
.86
.73
1.57
.42
1.29
1.03
2.58

1,243.8
65.3
50.8
91.8
47.4
60.1
52.1
108.6
18.4
94.9
69.3
180.9

1,278.8
66.1
52.2
94.8
48.9
61.7
53.6
110.9
19.7
98.0
71.5
186.2

1,302.1
66.8
53.7
95.4
49.2
63.3
54.0
111.8
21.2
98.6
72.0
189.8

18.47
.96
.75
1.37
.71
.89
.77
1.60
.28
1.42
1.03
2.69

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Busdrivers, local and in te rc ity ........................................................................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................
Railroad brake o p e ra to rs ................................................................................................
Sailors and deckhands.....................................................................................................
Taxi drivers ........................................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orkers.............................................................................................
Truck driv e rs ......................................................................................................................

1,043.6
146.5
31.3
56.6
27.0
31.2
74.4
575.9

18.24
2.56
.55
.99
.47
.55
1.30
10.07

1,245.6
158.8
33.6
48.6
26.7
19.2
96.9
750.7

1,280.3
165.5
34.6
49.9
28.0
20.0
98.9
766.7

1,318.3
177.2
35.2
53.7
28.3
21.5
100.6
781.3

18.49
2.39
.50
.72
.40
.29
1.43
11.07

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................
Flight a tte n d a n ts ...............................................................................................................

153.6
44.5
52.9

2.69
.78
.92

175.7
46.2
67.3

179.8
47.5
68.2

182.8
48.3
68.9

2.60
.69
.99

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................
Line service attenda nts...................................................................................................

433.5
33.7
30.1

7.58
.59
.53

501.2
34.6
40.9

516.3
35.8
41.4

528.8
37.1
41.8

7.46
.52
.60

Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

1,120.8

100.00

1,459.1

1,489.7

1,516.2

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs...............................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................

9.7
5.7
1.4

.87
.51
.12

12.7
7.4
1.8

12.9
7.6
1.8

13.2
7.7
1.9

.87
.51
.12

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

73.2

6.53

100.4

102.5

104.3

6.88

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Crating and moving estimators ......................................................................................

9.8
5.7

.88
.51

12.8
7.4

13.0
7.5

13.3
7.7

.87
.51

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Adjustment clerks ............................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ..........................................................................................................
Cashiers .............................................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors..........................................................................................................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or w o r k ............................................................................
File c le rk s ..........................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine operators.......................................................................
Computer operators.........................................................................................................
Data entry operators .......................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ......................................................................................
Rate clerks, fre ig h t..........................................................................................................

175.1
4.0
3.5
10.9
2.0
3.4
27.0
1.9
36.6
8.0
1.4
1.9
2.4
8.2

15.62
.35
.31
.97
.18
.30
2.41
.17
3.26
.72
.12
.17
.21
.73

218.9
5.2
4.0
12.2
4.5
4.4
35.2
1.5
47.7
10.5
3.0
.4
3.1
10.7

223.5
5.3
4.1
12.5
4.6
4.5
35.9
1.5
48.7
10.7
3.0
.4
3.1
10.9

227.5
5.4
4.2
12.7
4.7
4.6
36.6
1.6
49.6
10.9
3.1
.4
3.2
11.1

15.00
.35
.27
.84
.31
.30
2.41
.10
3.27
.72
.20
.03
.21
.73

Trucking, local, long distance, and term inals1

See footnotes at end of table.




151

E-1. E m p lo ym en t in seieeted industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives=“Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Trucking, locai, long distance, and term inals1 - C ontinued
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving clerks .........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ......................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists .............................................................................
Traffic agents ....................................................................................................................

14.9
3.7
5.1
9.4
8.8
1.1
8.8

1.33
.33
.45
.84
.78
.10
.79

17.5
3.8
5.6
11.3
9.5
1.5
11.5

17.9
3.9
5.7
11.6
9.7
1.5
11.7

18.2
4.0
5.8
11.8
9.9
1.5
12.0

1.20
.26
.39
.78
.65
.10
.79

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Automotive body repairers............................................................. .................................
Automotive m echanics...................... ..............................................................................
Diesel m echanics..............................................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist operators................................................................................

80.7
1.2
13.4
38.4
1.3
2.3

7.20
.10
1.20
3.42
.12
.21

105.2
1.5
17.5
50.0
1.7
3.1

107.4
1.5
17.9
51.1
1.8
3.1

109.3
1.6
18.2
52.0
1.8
3.2

7.21
.10
1.20
3.43
.12
.21

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................
Industrial truck o p erators.................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs..............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................
Tire changers and re paire rs............................................................................................

618.3
1.1
9.2
67.1
534.8
1.4

55.17
.09
.82
5.98
47.72
.12

802.5
1.4
10.4
87.3
695.3
1.8

819.4
1.4
10.6
89.2
709.9
1.8

833.9
1.5
10.8
90.8
722.5
1.8

55.00
.10
.71
5.99
47.65
.12

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................
G ua rds................................................................................................................................

10.0
6.9
1.9

.89
.62
.17

13.0
9.0
2.5

13.3
9.2
2.5

13.5
9.4
2.5

.89
.62
.17

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................

144.0

12.85

193.6

197.7

201.2

13.27

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

1,063.8

100.00

1,306.1

1,348.7

1,357.1

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Electrical en ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Industrial e n ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ......................................................................................................
D rafters...........................................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians..............................................................................
Computer program m ers...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................

68.6
15.9
2.4
1.6
4.5
7.3
3.3
3.5
5.5
4.9

6.45
1.50
.23
.15
.42
.69
.31
.33
.51
.46

104.7
32.8
3.9
2.0
3.7
13.7
4.1
6.6
7.7
6.0

108.2
33.8
4.1
2.1
3.8
14.2
4.3
6.8
8.0
6.2

108.8
34.1
4.1
2.1
3.8
14.3
4.3
6.8
8.0
6.3

8.02
2.51
.30
.15
.28
1.05
.32
.50
.59
.46

Managers, officials, and proprietors..................................................................................

100.1

9.41

133.1

137.4

138.3

10.19

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................

18.6

1.75

34.6

35.7

35.9

2.65

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
C a sh ie rs .............................................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors...........................................................................................................
Collectors, bill and a c c o u n t.............................................................................................
Customer service representatives.................................................................................
Dispatchers, vehicle service or work ............................................................................
File c le rk s ...........................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Mail c le rk s ..........................................................................................................................
Computer operators..........................................................................................................
Data entry operators ........................................................................................................

496.4
15.9
2.7
'5.5
31.0
2.5
64.6
8.8
3.5
49.3
2.4
4.8
3.8

46.66
1.50
.25
.51
2.92
.23
6.07
.82
.33
4.64
.23
.45
.36

590.0
17.7
3.3
9.6
43.1
3.0
89.3
10.8
3.3
69.5
3.0
6.8
4.7

609.2
18.2
3.4
9.9
44.5
3.1
92.2
11.1
3.4
71.8
3.1
7.1
4.9

613.1
18.4
3.4
10.0
44.8
3.2
92.8
11.2
3.4
72.2
3.1
7.1
4.9

45.17
1.35
.25
.74
3.30
.23
6.84
.83
.25
5.32
.23
.52
.36

Teiephon® com m unication

See footnotes at end of table.




152

E-1. Employment in selected industries and oeciupatioinis, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

T © le p h o n e com m unication— C o n tin u e d

Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s .......................................................................................
Personnel clerks ...............................................................................................................
Production c le rk s ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
S tenographers...................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Statistical c le rk s ................................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ......................................................................
Central office o p e ra to rs ...................................................................................................
Directory assistance operators .......................................................................................

2.0
2.7
19.4
11.0
6.9
14.8
15.1
7.3
107.7
37.5

0.19
.25
1.82
1.04
.65
1.39
1.42
.69
10.12
3.52

2.5
3.3
26.8
13.2
8.6
15.3
16.6
8.0
82.8
41.7

2.6
3.4
27.7
13.6
8.8
15.8
17.2
8.3
85.5
43.1

2.6
3.4
27.9
13.7
8.9
15.9
17.3
8.3
86.0
43.4

0.19
.25
2.05
1.01
.65
1.17
1.27
.61
6.34
3.19

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Automotive m echanics.....................................................................................................
Central office repairers.....................................................................................................
Frame w ire rs ......................................................................................................................
Trouble locators, test d e s k ..............................................................................................
Cable installers..................................................................................................................
Cable repairers..................................................................................................................
Cable splic e rs ....................................................................................................................
Line installers, re paire rs...................................................................................................
Radio and television service technicians ......................................................................
Installers, repairers, section maintainers .......................................................................
Station installers................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................
Stationary engineers.........................................................................................................

361.3
3.4
50.1
13.1
18.9
4.1
9.5
36.0
19.1
4.4
69.6
58.2
49.0
2.1

33.97
.32
4.71
1.23
1.78
.39
.90
3.38
1.79
.42
6.54
5.47
4.61
.19

423.5
4.1
47.2
16.1
15.7
5.1
11.8
44.3
21.6
5.5
85.0
67.7
68.2
1.8

437.4
4.3
48.7
16.6
16.2
5.2
12.1
45.8
22.3
5.6
87.8
69.9
70.4
1.8

440.1
4.3
49.0
16.7
16.3
5.3
12.2
46.1
22.4
5.7
88.3
70.3
70.9
1.8

32.43
.32
3.61
1.23
1.20
.39
.90
3.39
1.65
.42
6.51
5.18
5.22
.14

O peratives.............................................................................................................................

4.0

.37

4.9

5.1

5.1

.38

Service w orke rs ............ .......................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

12.6
9.8

1.18
.92

12.6
9.1

13.0
9.4

13.1
9.5

.96
.70

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................

2.2

.21

2.7

2.8

2.8

.21

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

216.4

100.00

352.0

354.6

355.9

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Electrical e n ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Broadcast tech nicians......................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
Commercial and graphic artists and designers ...........................................................
Photographers...................................................................................................................
Announcers ........................................................................................................................
Broadcast news an a lysts.................................................................................................
Reporters and correspondents ......................................................................................
Writers and editors ...........................................................................................................
Writers, artists, entertainers, nec.....................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................

113.5
9.3
14.0
1.8
1.5
3.1
43.9
8.8
6.5
5.4
6.1
1.2

52.46
4.29
6.47
.85
.70
1.43
20.31
4.05
3.01
2.49
2.83
.55

157.9
16.5
17.4
3.0
2.5
4.7
55.0
12.0
8.5
9.6
6.7
3.5

159.1
16.6
17.6
3.0
2.5
4.7
55.4
12.1
8.6
9.7
6.8
3.6

159.6
16.7
17.6
3.0
2.5
4.7
55.6
12.1
8.6
9.7
6.8
3.6

44.85
4.69
4.96
.86
.71
1.33
15.61
3.41
2.43
2.72
1.92
1.01

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

36.8

17.02

74.2

74.8

75.0

21.08

Sales w o rke rs.......................................................................................................................

25.2

11.63

62.6

63.0

63.3

17.78

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine op erators.......................................................................
Receptionists.....................................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................

35.1
3.6
1.4
1.8
2.5
9.0

16.22
1.66
.63
.83
1.16
4.15

50.3
3.9
2.3
2.9
4.1
11.8

50.7
3.9
2.3
3.0
4.2
11.9

50.9
3.9
2.3
3.0
4.2
11.9

14.29
1.11
.64
.83
1.17
3.34

Radio and television broadcasting

See footnotes at end of table.




153

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives
Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Radio and tele visio n broadeasting—Continued
1.5
1.0
7.1

0.69
.47
3.29

1.4
1.7
10.4

1.4
1.7
10.5

1.4
1.7
10.5

0.40
.47
2.95

1.7

.76

2.7

2.7

2.7

.77

O peratives.............................................................................................................................

.4

.17

.6

.6

.6

.18

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians........................................ ..................................................................

3.5
3.0

1.60
1.38

3.3
2.5

3.3
2.5

3.3
2.5

.93
.71

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................

.3

.13

.5

.5

.5

.13

Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

20,551.0

100.00

26,046.1

26,838.0

27,191.7

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
P harm acists.......................................................................................................................
D esigners...........................................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs........... ....................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e .................................................................................

777.5
91.9
82.5
67.8
101.6
223.2

3.78
.45
.40
.33
.49
1.09

1,013.4
122.9
104.3
87.7
133.2
286.8

1,045.0
125.2
109.0
91.3
137.1
297.2

1,057.9
125.6
111.3
93.0
138.6
301.8

3.89
.47
.41
.34
.51
1.11

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................
Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers ............................................................................
Sales managers, retail tr a d e ...........................................................................................
Store managers.................................................................................................................
W holesalers.......................................................................................................................

1,918.7
312.8
261.1
772.0
203.1

9.34
1.52
1.27
3.76
.99

2,585.0
452.9
334.6
1,018.9
256.1

2,669.9
458.5
344.4
1,064.9
260.9

2,708.3
461.1
348.0
1,087.9
261.8

9.95
1.71
1.28
3.97
.97

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical....................... .......................................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l....................................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

4,460.0
583.4
1,320.3
2,495.3

21.70
2.84
6.42
12.14

5,480.6
724.3
1,651.9
3,027.8

5,685.4
743.1
1,706.7
3,155.7

5,778.8
749.4
1,729.7
3,218.3

21.18
2.77
6.36
11.76

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................
B ookkeepers, hand ...........................................................................................................
C a sh ie rs.............................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Bookkeeping and billing op erators................................................................................
Data entry operators .............................................. .........................................................
Order c le rk s .......................................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving clerks ........................................................................................
Shipping packers .............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................

4,250.3
162.0
391.3
1,283.2
571.9
75.0
51.0
160.9
231.2
68.9
187.2
148.5
512.5
41.9

20.68
.79
1.90
6.24
2.78
.36
.25
.78
1.12
.34
.91
.72
2.49
.20

5,374.8
184.7
439.2
1,821.2
730.7
89.0
44.9
194.8
286.5
74.9
210.2
167.6
582.7
52.7

5,559.2
190.3
453.7
1,894.1
754.1
91.2
46.2
199.7
294.3
76.9
216.3
171.4
602.5
54.1

5,640.3
192.5
460.1
1,929.9
763.6
91.9
46.6
201.3
297.1
77.5
218.5
172.5
610.9
54.6

20.71
.71
1.69
7.06
2.81
.34
.17
.74
1.10
.29
.81
.64
2.24
.20

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics....................................................................................................
Computer service technicians........................................................................................
Diesel m echanics..............................................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
Office machine repairers.................................................................................................
Bakers ...............................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................
T a ilo rs .................................................................................................................................

1,353.4
378.2
41.8
65.8
88.5
48.0
48.9
127.2
41.2

6.59
1.84
.20
.32
.43
.23
.24
.62
.20

1,836.4
563.6
75.2
80.6
109.2
83.6
59.8
161.6
57.2

1,901.6
588.0
76.6
82.5
111.7
85.3
62.3
165.9
59.7

1,929.9
599.6
76.8
83.1
112.4
85.7
63.6
167.4
61.0

7.09
2.19
.29
.31
.42
.32
.23
.62
.22

T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists............................................................................
Traffic c le rk s ......................................................................................................................
Craft and related w o rk e rs ...............................................................................................

W holesale and re tail trade

See footnotes at end of table.




154

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)

1995 alternatives

1982

Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

W ho lesa le and retail tra d e — C ontinued

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
B agg ers.......................................................... ...................................................................
Production packagers.......................................................................................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs .................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs..............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators...........................................................................
Tire changers and re paire rs............................................................................................

1,832.1
242.3
89.9
69.2
439.8
335.2
354.5
57.1

8.91
1.18
.44
.34
2.14
1.63
1.73
.28

2,101.7
219.4
103.0
82.8
522.5
407.7
391.6
80.1

2,177.2
229.0
106.7
84.9
537.9
419.0
412.1
83.6

2,209.9
233.7
108.4
85.5
543.8
423.0
422.1
85.3

8.11
.85
.40
.32
2.00
1.56
1.54
.31

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................
Bartenders .........................................................................................................................
Butchers and meat c u tte rs ..............................................................................................
Cooks, restaurant...................................... .......................................................................
Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s .................................................................
Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants...................................
Hosts/hostesses, restaurants, lounges, and coffee sh o p s........................................
Kitchen h e lp e rs .................................................................................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers............................................................................
Waiters and w aitresses....................................................................................................
Waiters’ assistants............................................................................................................

4,710.0
304.4
242.3
172.9
267.1
386.6
792.7
93.8
411.9
57.0
1,364.4
194.3

22.92
1.48
1.18
.84
1.30
1.88
3.86
.46
2.00
.28
6.64
.95

6,225.3
355.5
331.6
155.3
384.7
506.7
1,072.8
126.9
586.5
76.1
1,791.6
240.2

6,321.2
365.8
335.7
161.4
389.7
513.6
1,086.2
128.5
594.6
77.2
1,815.4
243.2

6,366.5
370.6
337.7
164.3
392.0
516.8
1,092.5
129.2
598.5
77.7
1,826.7
244.6

23.55
1.36
1.25
.60
1.45
1.91
4.05
.48
2.22
.29
6.76
.91

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................
Stock clerk, sales f lo o r ....................................................................................................

1,248.9
247.0
596.9

6.08
1.20
2.90

1,429.0
283.7
681.0

1,478.6
289.9
710.8

1,500.2
291.5
725.6

5.51
1.08
2.65

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

5,293.6

100.00

6,356.2

6,474.4

6,495.3

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................
Electrical e n ginee rs..........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers ..........................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers ......................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians..............................................................................
Computer program m ers...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs ................................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e .................................................................................

359.9
11.7
6.6
9.4
90.9
15.9
25.1
61.6
72.3

6.80
.22
.13
.18
1.72
.30
.47
1.16
1.37

466.9
16.0
8.0
11.3
121.5
24.9
37.7
79.5
88.8

475.5
16.3
8.2
11.5
123.7
25.4
38.4
80.9
90.4

477.1
16.3
8.2
11.5
124.1
25.4
38.5
81.2
90.7

7.34
.25
.13
.18
1.91
.39
.59
1.25
1.40

Managers, officials, and p roprie tors..................................................................................
Sales managers, retail tr a d e .................... .................................................... ..................
Store m anagers.................................................................................................................
W holesalers.......................................................................................................................

483.4
153.8
3.4
202.5

9.13
2.90
.06
3.82

606.7
198.0
4.2
255.3

617.9
201.7
4.3
260.1

619.9
202.3
4.3
260.9

9.54
3.11
.07
4.02

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical...................................... ........................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l........... ,........................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

1,093.4
410.4
561.5
116.3

20.66
7.75
10.61
2.20

1,394.7
517.3
722.0
148.8

1,420.6
526.9
735.4
151.5

1,425.2
528.7
737.8
152.0

21.94
8.14
11.36
2.34

Clerical w orke rs........................................... ........................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
Cashiers ........................ ....................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine op erators................... ....................................................
Computer operators..........................................................................................................
Data entry operators ........................................................................................................

1,530.7
90.2
114.6
36.0
9.2
289.1
57.7
6.5
36.0

28.92
1.70
2.17
.68
.17
5.46
1.09
.12
.68

1,750.2
98.3
123.8
52.5
10.8
353.3
68.2
7.8
27.5

1,782.7
100.1
126.1
53.4
11.0
359.9
69.5
8.0
28.0

1,788.5
100.4
126.5
53.6
111
361.1
69.7
8.0
28.1

27.53
1.55
1.95
.83
.17
5.56
1.07
.12
.43

W ho lesale trad e

See footnotes at end of table.




155

E-1. Employment In selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

W holesale tra d e —Continued
Order c le rk s .......................................................................................................................
R eceptionists................. ...................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving clerks .........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................
Switchboard o p e ra to rs .....................................................................................................
W eighe rs............................................................................................................................

120.5
18.0
153.6
50.4
115.7
127.7
219.9
29.7
6.6
12.0

2.28
.34
2.90
.95
2.19
2.41
4.15
.56
.13
.23

143.5
21.5
184.8
54.3
128.1
140.9
232.7
35.9
7.2
14.8

146.2
21.9
188.2
55.3
130.4
143.6
237.0
36.6
7.3
15.1

146.7
22.0
188.8
55.5
130.9
144.0
237.8
36.7
7.3
15.1

2.26
.34
2.91
.85
2.01
2.22
3.66
.56
.11
.23

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Automotive m echanics.....................................................................................................
Computer service tech nicians.........................................................................................
Diesel m echanics..............................................................................................................
Engineering equipment m echanics.................................................................................
Farm equipment m e chanics............................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
Office machine repairers..................................................................................................
M achinists..........................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................

547.0
78.3
41.4
55.4
38.3
15.7
72.7
43.7
8.4
90.7

10.33
1.48
.78
1.05
.72
.30
1.37
.83
.16
1.71

698.4
90.9
74.7
65.1
39.9
15.8
90.0
77.2
10.7
110.5

711.4
92.6
76.1
66.3
40.7
16.1
91.6
78.6
10.9
112.5

713.7
92.9
76.4
66.5
40.8
16.1
91.9
78.8
11.0
112.9

10.99
1.43
1.18
1.02
.63
.25
1.42
1.21
.17
1.74

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................
Production packagers.......................................................................................................
Industrial truck op e ra to rs.................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs..............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators..........................................................................

717.0
8.7
26.6
54.6
240.6
231.3
38.5

13.54
.16
.50
1.03
4.54
4.37
.73

828.2
9.9
29.2
63.2
279.5
271.6
46.7

843.6
10.1
29.8
64.4
284.7
276.7
47.5

846.3
10.2
29.9
64.6
285.6
277.6
47.7

13.03
.16
.46
.99
4.40
4.27
.73

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................
Butchers and meat c u tte rs ..............................................................................................

88.4
52.7
23.7

1.67
1.00
.45

95.0
56.2
25.3

96.8
57.3
25.8

97.1
57.4
25.9

1.49
.88
.40

Laborers, except farm .........................................................................................................
Conveyor operators and te n d e rs ....................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................
Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................

473.7
13.7
4.8
218.3

8.95
.26
.09
4.12

516.2
16.3
5.8
249.0

525.8
16.6
6.0
253.7

527.5
16.7
6.0
254.5

8.12
.26
.09
3.92

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

413.0

100.00

584.6

595.5

597.4

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Computer programmers ...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e .................................................................................

17.0
1.4
1.2
4.7
6.1

4.12
.34
.28
1.13
1.49

27.1
2.4
2.4
7.7
9.5

27.6
2.4
2.4
7.8
9.7

27.7
2.4
2.4
7.8
9.8

4.63
.40
.40
1.31
1.63

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................
Sales managers, retail tr a d e ..........................................................................................
W holesalers.......................................................................................................................

41.7
13.6
18.2

10.09
3.29
4.40

61.8
21.2
28.5

63.0
21.6
29.0

63.2
21.7
29.1

10.57
3.63
4.87

Sales w o rk e rs ..................................................................... .................................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical..............................................................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l.....................................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

93.5
28.0
45.2
19.7

22.64
6.79
10.95
4.76

133.6
40.0
64.8
28.0

136.1
40.7
66.0
28.6

136.5
40.9
66.2
28.7

22.85
6.84
11.08
4.80

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................

123.8
7.0

29.97
1.70

161.8
8.1

164.8
8.2

165.4
8.2

27.68
1.38

M otor vehicles and auto parts and supplies

See footnotes at end of table.




156

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives
Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

M o tor vehicles and auto parts and supplies— C ontinued

Bookkeepers, h a n d ..........................................................................................................
Cashiers ................................................................... .........................................................
Bookkeeping and billing op e ra to rs................................................................................
Data entry operators .......................................................................................................
S ecretaries........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ...............................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................
Shipping packers .............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists............................................................................

10.2
3.8
5.4
4.1
8.6
2.7
11.5
7.0
23.4
1.8

2.48
.91
1.31
.99
2.09
.65
2.77
1.68
5.66
.44

12.6
6.4
6.5
2.4
11.2
2.8
17.9
8.0
26.5
2.6

12.9
6.5
6.6
2.4
11.4
2.9
18.2
8.1
27.0
2.6

12.9
6.6
6.6
2.4
11.4
2.9
18.3
8.1
27.0
2.6

2.16
1.10
1.11
.40
1.91
.49
3.06
1.36
4.53
.44

Craft and related w o rk e rs ........................................................................... .......................
Automotive body repairers..............................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics....................................................................................................
Diesel m echanics.............................................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general utility ............................................................................
M achinists.........................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................

62.8
2.0
26.6
15.1
3.5
2.9
7.9

15.21
.48
6.44
3.66
.84
.70
1.92

89.9
2.8
37.2
21.6
5.0
4.1
12.4

91.6
2.9
37.9
22.0
5.0
4.2
12.6

91.9
2.9
38.0
22.0
5.1
4.2
12.6

15.39
.48
6.37
3.69
.85
.71
2.12

O peratives............................................................................................................................
Transport equipment op erative s....................................................................................
Industrial truck operators...............................................................................................
Delivery and route w o rk e rs ...........................................................................................
Truck drivers ...................................................................................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators..........................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, nonmanufacturing ..............................................
Tire changers and re paire rs...........................................................................................

42.1
30.3
2.6
17.5
9.3
3.3
1.5
2.2

10.20
7.35
.63
4.24
2.26
.79
.37
.54

64.0
47.2
3.7
27.9
14.3
4.7
2.2
3.2

65.1
48.0
3.8
28.4
14.6
4.8
2.2
3.3

65.4
48.2
3.8
28.5
14.6
4.8
2.2
3.3

10.94
8.06
.63
4.77
2.44
.80
.37
.55

Service w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Building custodians..........................................................................................................

4.2
3.6

1.02
.88

6.0
5.2

6.1
5.3

6.1
5.3

1.02
.89

Laborers, except farm .................................................................... ....................................
Stock handlers ............................................................................................................. .

27.9
18.7

6.75
4.54

40.5
28.6

41.2
29.1

41.3
29.2

6.92
4.89

Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

1,344.9

100.00

1,630.8

1,661.2

1,666.5

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Electrical engineers .........................................................................................................
Industrial engineers .........................................................................................................
Mechanical engineers .....................................................................................................
D rafters................ ..............................................................................................................
Electrical and electronic technicians.............................................................................
Computer program m ers..................................................................................................
Computer systems analvsts ...........................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs ...............................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................

154.5
4.0
3.3
5.4
2.5
62.7
5.5
16.9
15.2
15.2

11.49
.30
.24
.40
.19
4.67
.41
1.26
1.13
1.13

203.5
6.5
3.9
6.6
2.4
83.9
8.3
23.7
20.4
18.4

207.2
6.6
4.0
6.7
2.4
85.4
8.5
24.2
20.7
18.7

207.9
6.7
4.0
6.7
2.4
85.7
8.5
24.3
20.8
18.8

12.48
.40
.24
.40
.15
5.14
.51
1.46
1.25
1.13

Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................
Sales managers, retail trade ..........................................................................................
W holesalers......................................................................................................................

117.2
39.2
38.2

8.72
2.92
2.84

153.4
52.4
51.2

156.3
53.4
52.1

156.8
53.6
52.3

9.41
3.22
3.14

Sales w orke rs......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical..............................................................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l....................................................................................
Sales c le rk s ......................................................................................................................

275.6
154.9
96.8
23.9

20.49
11.52
7.19
1.78

360.3
202.9
128.4
28.9

367.0
206.7
130.8
29.5

368.2
207.3
131.2
29.6

22.09
12.44
7.87
1.77

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................

347.6
21.8

25.85
1.62

373.3
21.5

380.3
21.9

381.5
22.0

22.89
1.32

M achinery, equipm ent, and supplies

See footnotes at end of table.




157

E-1. Employment in seieeted industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives
Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Machinery, equipm ent, and supplies—C ontinued
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
C a sh ie rs ........................................................... .................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Bookkeeping and billing op e ra to rs.................................................................................
Data entry operators ........................................................................................................
R eceptionists.....................................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s .........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists.............................................................................

25.7
4.5
76.3
13.6
6.8
5.5
47.0
14.5
22.1
18.6
39.4
8.4

1.91
.34
5.67
1.01
.51
.41
3.50
1.08
1.64
1.39
2.93
.62

24.6
6.3
87.9
16.5
4.4
6.7
53.0
14.7
21.8
19.4
40.2
10.1

25.1
6.4
89.5
16.8
4.5
6.8
54.0
14.9
22.2
19.8
41.0
10.3

25.1
6.4
89.8
16.8
4.5
6.8
54.2
15.0
22.3
19.8
41.1
10.4

1.51
.39
5.39
1.01
.27
.41
3.25
.90
1.34
1.19
2.47
.62

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Plumbers and pipefitters....................................................................................................
Mechanics, repairers, and in s ta lle rs ................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics.....................................................................................................
Computer service technicians.........................................................................................
Diesel m echanics..............................................................................................................
Engineering equipment m echanics................................................................................
Farm equipment m e chanics.......................... .................................................................
Industrial machinery re paire rs.........................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................
Office machine repairers..................................................................................................
M achinists............................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors..........................................................................................
Crane, derrick, and hoist o p e ra to rs................................................................................
Opticians, dispensing and optical m echanics................................................................

295.4
2.2
246.3
38.6
38.2
35.2
35.7
15.4
3.5
28.8
39.7
3.9
24.2
2.8
2.0

21.97
.17
18.32
2.87
2.84
2.62
2.66
1.14
.26
2.14
2.95
.29
1.80
.20
.15

383.7
2.7
325.8
38.6
70.9
37.8
36.8
15.4
4.3
36.5
72.1
4.7
28.1
3.3
2.0

390.8
2.7
331.9
39.3
72.2
38.5
37.5
15.7
4.4
37.2
73.4
4.8
28.6
3.4
2.0

392.1
2.8
333.0
39.5
72.4
38.6
37.6
15.7
4.4
37.3
73.7
4.8
28.7
3.4
2.0

23.53
.17
19.98
2.37
4.35
2.32
2.26
.94
.26
2.24
4.42
.29
1.72
.20
.12

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Welders and flam ecutters................................................................................................
Chauffeurs..........................................................................................................................
Industrial truck op erators.................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orkers.............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................

76.8
4.0
1.2
4.8
20.9
23.6

5.71
.30
.09
.36
1.55
1.76

79.4
4.8
1.5
5.8
20.4
25.4

80.9
4.9
1.5
6.0
20.7
25.9

81.2
4.9
1.5
6.0
20.8
26.0

4.87
.30
.09
.36
1.25
1.56

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians........................................................................................................ .

24.4
23.2

1.82
1.73

23.2
21.7

23.6
22.1

23.7
22.1

1.42
1.33

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................
Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................

53.3
2.7
31.0

3.96
.20
2.30

54.0
3.3
32.3

55.0
3.4
32.9

55.2
3.4
33.0

3.31
.20
1.98

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

15,257.4

100.00

19,689.9

20,363.6

20,696.4

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
P harm acists.......................................................................................................................
D esigners...........................................................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs ...............................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................

417.6
82.1
62.7
40.0
150.9

2.74
.54
.41
.26
.99

546.5
103.9
79.9
53.8
198.0

569.4
108.6
83.3
56.2
206.8

580.8
110.9
85.0
57.4
211.1

2.80
.53
.41
.28
1.02

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................
Auto parts department m anagers..................................................................................
Auto service department m a nagers..............................................................................
Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers ............................................................................
Sales managers, retail tr a d e ..........................................................................................
Store managers.................................................................................................................
All other m a nage rs...........................................................................................................

1,435.3
34.0
42.7
312.8
107.3
768.6
169.2

9.41
.22
.28
2.05
.70
5.04
1.11

1,978.3
50.1
63.7
452.8
136.6
1,014.7
259.5

2,051.9
52.4
66.6
458.5
142.7
1,060.7
270.3

2,088.4
53.5
68.0
461.1
145.7
1,083.6
275.7

10.08
.26
.33
2.25
.70
5.21
1.33

Retail trade

See footnotes at end of table.




158

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives
Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Retail trade—C ontinued

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical...............................................................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l.....................................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

3,366.6
173.0
758.8
2,379.0

22.07
1.13
4.97
15.59

4,085.9
206.9
929.9
2,879.0

4,264.8
216.2
971.3
3,004.2

4,353.6
220.8
991.9
3,066.3

20.94
1.06
4.77
14.75

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
Cashiers .............................................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors..................................................................... .....................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Order c le rk s .......................................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
Service c le rk s ....................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving c le rk s ........................................................................................
Shipping packers ..............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

2,719.6
71.8
276.6
1,247.3
26.6
282.8
40.5
77.6
22.1
71.5
20.8
292.6

17.82
.47
1.81
8.17
.17
1.85
.27
.51
.15
.47
.14
1.92

3,624.7
86.4
315.5
1,768.8
37.0
377.4
51.3
101.7
31.8
82.2
26.7
350.0

3,776.5
90.2
327.6
1,840.6
38.7
394.2
53.6
106.1
33.2
85.8
27.9
365.5

3,851.9
92.0
333.6
1,876.3
39.5
402.5
54.7
108.3
33.8
87.6
28.4
373.1

18.55
.44
1.61
9.04
.19
1.94
.26
.52
.16
.42
.14
1.79

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Automotive body repairers...............................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics.....................................................................................................
Bakers ................................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors.......................................................................................
Merchandise dispiayers and window trim m e rs............................................................
T a ilo rs .................................................................................................................................

806.5
44.8
300.0
46.9
36.6
16.5
41.0

5.29
.29
1.97
.31
.24
.11
.27

1,138.0
68.1
472.8
57.6
51.1
26.3
57.0

1,190.2
71.2
495.4
60.2
53.3
27.4
59.5

1,216.2
72.7
506.7
61.4
54.5
28.0
60.7

5.84
.35
2.43
.30
.26
.13
.29

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
B a g g e rs..............................................................................................................................
Production packagers.......................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators...........................................................................
Tire changers and re paire rs...........................................................................................

1,115.1
242.0
63.2
199.2
103.9
316.1
54.4

7.31
1.59
.41
1.31
.68
2.07
.36

1,273.5
219.1
73.8
243.0
136.0
345.0
76.4

1,333.6
228.6
76.9
253.1
142.3
364.6
79.8

1,363.5
233.4
78.5
258.2
145.4
374.4
81.5

6.55
1.12
.38
1.24
.70
1.79
.39

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building cu sto d ia n s............................................................................................................
Food service workers .......................................................................................................
Bakers, bread and p a s try ................................................................................................
Bartenders .........................................................................................................................
Butchers and meat c u tte rs ..............................................................................................
Cooks, restaurant..............................................................................................................
Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................
Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants...................................
Hosts/hostesses, restaurants, lounges, and coffee sh o p s........................................
Kitchen h e lp e rs .................................................................................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers............................................................................
Waiters and w aitresses...................................................................................................
Waiters’ assistants............................................................................................................
Ail other food service w o rk e rs .......................................................................................
Supervisors, nonworking, se rv ic e ....................................................................................

4,621.6
251.7
4,237.8
22.7
242.2
149.2
266.9
386.2
792.2
93.8
411.4
56.3
1,363.8
194.2
257.9
42.5

30.29
1.65
27.78
.15
1.59
.98
1.75
2.53
5.19
.61
2.70
.37
8.94
1.27
1.69
.28

6,130.3
299.3
5,637.9
30.7
331.6
130.0
384.5
506.1
1,072.2
126.9
586.0
75.3
1,790.9
240.1
362.5
58.2

6,224.4
308.6
5,716.9
31.1
335.7
135.6
389.5
513.0
1,085.6
128.4
594.1
76.4
1,814.7
243.1
368.4
59.1

6,269.4
313.2
5,754.4
31.3
337.7
138.4
391.9
516.3
1,092.0
129.2
597.9
76.9
1,826.0
244.5
371.3
59.6

30.57
1.52
28.07
.15
1.65
.67
1.91
2.52
5.33
.63
2.92
.38
8.91
1.19
1.81
.29

Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................
Cleaners, v eh icle...............................................................................................................
Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................
Stock clerk, sales f lo o r ...................................................................................................

775.2
43.5
28.6
595.0

5.08
.28
.19
3.90

912.8
62.0
34.6
678.7

952.8
64.9
36.2
708.5

972.7
66.3
37.0
723.3

4.68
.32
.18
3.48

See footnotes at end of table.




159

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

D epartm ent stores
Total, ail occupations..................................................................................................

1,884.8

100.00

2,829.8

2,954.6

3,016.1

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Computer program m ers..................................................................................................
Commercial and graphic artists and designers ...........................................................
D esigners..........................................................................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors...............................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e ................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................

89.7
1.4
3.8
2.7
3.9
35.5
7.5

3.70
.08
.20
.14
.21
1.89
.40

111.0
2.2
5.7
4.8
5.9
59.3
11.3

115.9
2.3
6.0
5.0
6.2
61.9
11.8

118.3
2.3
6.1
5.1
6.3
63.1
12.0

3.92
.08
.20
.17
.21
2.09
.40

Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................
Sales managers, retail trade ..........................................................................................
Store managers................................................................................................................

121.4
22.6
30.7

6.44
1.20
1.63

215.4
33.9
53.0

224.9
35.4
55.3

229.5
36.1
56.5

7.61
1.20
1.87

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical..............................................................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l....................................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

859.5
14.5
124.7
673.8

45.60
.77
6.62
35.75

1,254.7
18.6
176.4
999.1

1,310.0
19.4
184.2
1,043.2

1,337.2
19.8
188.0
1,064.9

44.34
.66
6.23
35.31

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Adjustment clerks ............................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ..........................................................................................................
Cashiers .............................................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors..........................................................................................................
Collectors, bill and a c c o u n t............................................................................................
Credit a u th o riz e s ..............................................................................................................
File cle rk s ...........................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................
Bookkeeping, billing machine op erators.......................................................................
Computer operators..........................................................................................................
Data entry o p e ra to rs ........................................................................................................
Peripheral EDP equipment operators............................................................................
Order c le rk s ......................................................................................................................
Payroll and timekeeping c le rk s ......................................................................................
Personnel clerks ..............................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
T y p is ts ................................................................................................................................
Service c le rk s ...................................................................................................................
Shipping and receiving clerks ........................................................................................
Shipping packers .............................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................
Switchboard o p e ra to rs ....................................................................................................

490.3
15.7
18.8
9.5
94.5
16.5
6.2
16.9
4.8
46.2
3.6
1.4
6.1
1.8
15.6
5.5
4.9
12.2
4.6
20.4
18.3
12.7
48.1
11.1

26.02
.83
1.00
.51
5.01
.88
.33
.90
.26
2.45
.19
.08
.32
.10
.83
.29
.26
.65
.24
1.08
.97
.67
2.55
.59

758.3
23.6
25.3
12.3
179.4
24.8
7.4
25.4
5.3
77.3
5.4
2.1
8.8
2.8
23.4
8.2
7.4
18.7
4.9
29.5
22.7
17.0
62.5
7.4

791.8
24.6
26.4
12.9
187.3
25.9
7.7
26.5
5.5
80.7
5.7
2.2
9.2
2.9
24.4
8.6
7.7
19.5
5.1
30.8
23.6
17.8
65.2
7.7

808.2
25.1
26.9
13.2
191.2
26.4
7.9
27.1
5.7
82.3
5.8
2.3
9.4
2.9
24.9
8.7
7.9
20.0
5.2
31.4
24.1
18.2
66.6
7.8

26.80
.83
.89
.44
6.34
.88
.26
.90
.19
2.73
.19
.08
.31
.10
.83
.29
.26
.66
.17
1.04
.80
.60
2.21
.26

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Appliance installers and repairers .................................................................................
Automotive m echanics....................................................................................................
Industrial machinery repaire rs........................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors................... ....................................................................
Merchandise displayers and window trim m e rs............................................................
T a ilo rs .................................................................................................................................

92.0
11.7
13.8
5.2
9.0
10.5
8.5

4.88
.62
.73
.28
.48
.55
.45

137.9
17.6
17.8
7.9
13.6
18.7
12.8

144.0
18.3
18.6
8.2
14.2
19.5
13.4

147.0
18.7
19.0
8.4
14.5
19.9
13.7

4.87
.62
.63
.28
.48
.66
.45

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs.....................................................................................................................
Dressmakers, except fa c to ry ..........................................................................................
Tire changers and re paire rs...........................................................................................

40.0
2.8
5.3
3.6
12.0

2.12
.15
.28
.19
.64

55.2
4.1
7.9
5.3
13.2

57.6
4.3
8.3
5.6
13.8

58.8
4.4
8.4
5.7
14.1

1.95
.15
.28
.19
.47

Service w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Building custodians..........................................................................................................

127.1
34.5

6.74
1.83

185.0
37.5

193.2
39.1

197.2
40.0

6.54
1.32

See footnotes at end of table.




160

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1995 alternatives

1982

Number

Occupation
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

D epartm ent s to re s —C ontinued
Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s .................................................................
Kitchen h e lp e rs .................................................................................................................
Waiters and w aitresses....................................................................................................
Cosmetologists/women’s hairstylists.............................................................................
G ua rds................................................................................................................................
Store de te c tiv e s ................................................................................................................
Supervisors, nonworking, s e rv ic e ...................................................................................

5.0
7.4
12.1
12.2
7.4
17.3
3.7

0.26
.39
.64
.65
.39
.92
.19

8.0
11.2
18.2
18.3
20.1
-24.6
5.5

8.3
11.7
19.0
19.1
21.0
25.7
5.8

8.5
11.9
19.4
19.5
21.4
26.2
5.9

0.28
.39
.64
.65
.71
.87
.19

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Order fille rs ........................................................................................................................
Stock clerk, sales f lo o r ....................................................................................................

84.9
4.9
65.3

4.51
.26
3.46

112.3
6.5
83.7

117.3
6.8
87.4

119.7
6.9
89.2

3.97
.23
2.96

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

2,163.4

100.00

2,458.0

2,564.8

2,617.9

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................
P harm acists.......................................................................................................................
Buyers, retail and wholesale tra d e .................................................................................

39.1
1.3
33.7

1.81
.06
1.56

44.5
1.5
38.2

46.4
1.6
39.9

47.3
1.6
40.7

1.81
.06
1.56

Managers, officials, and proprietors..................................................................................
Sales managers, retail tr a d e ...........................................................................................
Store m anagers.................................................................................................................

178.1
2.0
150.0

8.23
.09
6.94

229.8
2.3
191.2

239.8
2.4
199.5

244.8
2.4
203.6

9.35
.09
7.78

Sales w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l.....................................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

238.5
1.4
236.7

11.03
.06
10.94

238.7
1.4
237.0

249.0
1.4
247.2

254.2
1.5
252.4

9.71
.06
9.64

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ...........................................................................................................
Cashiers .............................................................................................................................
Clerical supervisors...........................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
Secretaries and stenographers.......................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse ......................................................................

808.3
2.2
30.4
641.8
1.1
34.6
9.2
83.0

37.36
.10
1.40
29.67
.05
1.60
.42
3.84

1,023.2
2.5
32.5
838.7
1.3
39.3
11.1
91.0

1,067.7
2.7
34.0
875.2
1.3
41.0
11.6
94.9

1,089.8
2.7
34.7
893.3
1.3
41.8
11.8
96.9

41.63
.10
1.32
34.12
.05
1.60
.45
3.70

Craft and related w o rk e rs ...................................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ............................................................................
Bakers ................................................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................

30.2
1.1
23.8
2.2

1.40
.05
1.10
.10

34.3
1.2
27.0
2.5

35.8
1.3
28.2
2.6

36.6
1.3
28.8
2.7

1.40
.05
1.10
.10

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
B a g g e rs..............................................................................................................................
Production packagers.......................................................................................................
Industrial truck o p e ra to rs .................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs..............................................................................................
Truck driv e rs ......................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous machine operatives, all other food products......................................

319.9
239.3
50.1
1.3
7.2
11.0
8.6

14.78
11.06
2.31
.06
.33
.51
.40

307.2
215.7
56.9
1.5
8.2
12.5
9.8

320.6
225.1
59.4
1.6
8.5
13.1
10.2

327.2
229.7
60.6
1.6
8.7
13.3
10.4

12.50
8.77
2.31
.06
.33
.51
.40

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................
Butchers and meat c u tte rs ..............................................................................................
Cooks, restaurant..............................................................................................................
Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................
Kitchen h e lp e rs .................................................................................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers...........................................................................
Waiters and w aitre sses....................................................................................................
G ua rds................................................................................................................................

174.0
22.6
131.7
1.3
2.6
1.1
2.0
2.9
1.7

8.04
1.05
6.09
.06
.12
.05
.09
.13
.08

159.2
25.7
111.2
1.4
2.9
1.3
2.3
3.3
2.0

166.1
26.8
116.0
1.5
3.0
1.3
2.4
3.4
2.0

169.6
27.4
118.4
1.5
3.1
1.4
2.4
3.5
2.1

6.48
1.05
4.52
.06
.12
.05
.09
.13
.08

G rocery s to re s

See footnotes at end of table.




161

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

G r o c e r y s to r e s — C o n tin u e d

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Stock clerk, sales f lo o r .......................................... .........................................................

375.3
363.2

17.35
16.79

421.0
407.2

439.3
424.9

448.4
433.7

17.13
16.57

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

690.5

100.00

1,051.4

1,098.7

1,122.2

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................

12.3
12.1

1.79
1.76

18.8
18.5

19.6
19.3

20.1
19.7

1.79
1.76

Managers, officials, and proprietors..................................................................................
Auto parts department m anagers...................................................................................
Auto service department m anagers...............................................................................
Store managers.................................................................................................................

101.1
22.3
29.0
44.7

14.65
3.23
4.20
6.48

163.2
34.5
45.7
75.1

170.5
36.0
47.8
78.5

174.2
36.8
48.8
80.1

15.52
3.28
4.35
7.14

Sales w o rke rs.......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, nontechnical...............................................................................
Sales representatives, te ch n ica l.....................................................................................
Sales c le rk s .......................................................................................................................

154.6
22.3
125.3
6.8

22.39
3.24
18.14
.99

222.8
29.1
181.2
12.4

232.8
30.4
189.3
12.9

237.8
31.0
193.4
13.2

21.19
2.76
17.23
1.18

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks .............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ...........................................................................................................
C a sh ie rs.............................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e .......................................................................................................
R eceptionists.....................................................................................................................
S ecretaries.........................................................................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................
Switchboard operators/receptionists ............................................................................
Switchboard o p erators.....................................................................................................

109.4
13.0
19.7
11.6
25.4
1.2
5.4
21.6
6.4
2.0

15.84
1.88
2.85
1.69
3.67
.18
.78
3.13
.92
.30

151.3
15.0
22.3
19.1
38.6
1.8
6.3
31.6
9.7
2.2

158.1
15.6
23.4
20.0
40.4
1.9
6.6
33.0
10.1
2.3

161.5
16.0
23.9
20.4
41.2
2.0
6.7
33.7
10.4
2.4

14.39
1.42
2.13
1.82
3.67
.18
.60
3.01
.92
.21

Craft and related w o rke rs...................................................................................................
Automotive body repairers...............................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics.....................................................................................................
Auto repair service estim a to rs........................................................................................
Diesel m echanics..............................................................................................................
Blue-collar worker supervisors........................................................................................

220.4
40.6
153.8
8.0
7.0
10.3

31.93
5.88
22.28
1.16
1.01
1.48

358.5
61.8
257.1
12.1
10.6
15.6

374.6
64.6
268.6
12.7
11.1
16.3

382.7
66.0
274.4
13.0
11.3
16.7

34.10
5.88
24.45
1.16
1.01
1.48

O peratives.............................................................................................................................
Painters, autom otive.........................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs..............................................................................................
Truck d rive rs......................................................................................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators...........................................................................

25.4
8.6
6.3
3.1
4.1

3.68
1.24
.91
.44
.60

38.7
13.1
9.6
4.7
6.3

40.5
13.7
10.0
4.9
6.6

41.3
14.0
10.2
5.0
6.7

3.68
1.25
.91
.44
.60

Service w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Building custodians...........................................................................................................

19.2
18.6

2.77
2.70

29.0
28.4

30.3
29.6

31.0
30.3

2.76
2.70

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................
Cleaners, ve h icle ...............................................................................................................
Helpers, tra d e s ..................................................................................................................

48.0
36.6
9.3

6.95
5.30
1.35

69.1
51.7
14.1

72.2
54.1
14.8

73.8
55.2
15.1

6.58
4.92
1.35

Total, all occupations...................................................................................................

550.4

100.00

695.3

735.5

755.6

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
Accountants and a u ditors................................................................................................

3.2
2.9

.57
.53

4.0
3.7

4.2
3.9

4.3
4.0

.57
.53

Managers, officials, and proprie tors.................................................................................

64.4

11.71

84.6

89.5

92.0

12.17

M o t o r v e h ic le d e a le r s ( n e w a n d u s e d )

G a s o lin e s e r v ic e s ta tio n s

See footnotes at end of table.




162

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

G a s o lin e s e r v ic e s ta t io n s — C o n tin u e d

Store managers................................................................................................................

61.7

11.22

81.2

85.9

88.2

11.68

Sales w o rk e rs ......................................................................................................................
Sales representatives, te c h n ic a l....................................................................................

2.0
1.0

.37
.19

2.3
1.1

2.4
1.2

2.5
1.2

.33
.16

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ..........................................................................................................
C a s h ie rs ............................................................................................................................
General clerks, o ffic e ......................................................................................................

68.1
16.4
41.3
9.3

12.37
2.98
7.50
1.70

122.0
17.8
91.0
11.8

129.1
18.8
96.3
12.5

132.6
19.4
98.9
12.8

17.55
2.56
13.09
1.70

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Automotive m e chanics....................................................................................................

72.2
70.3

13.11
12.76

108.4
106.0

114.7
112.1

117.8
115.2

15.59
15.24

O peratives............................................................................................................................
Truck d rive rs.....................................................................................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators..........................................................................

315.9
13.5
300.7

57.39
2.46
54.63

342.9
17.1
323.7

362.8
18.1
342.5

372.7
18.6
351.8

49.32
2.46
46.56

Service w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Building custodians..........................................................................................................
Cooks, restaurant.............................................................................................................
Kitchen h e lp e rs ................................................................................................................
Waiters and w aitresses...................................................................................................

22.0
1.3
1.1
6.2
10.9

3.99
.23
.20
1.13
1.99

27.8
1.6
1.4
7.9
13.8

29.4
1.7
1.5
8.3
14.6

30.2
1.8
1.5
8.6
15.0

3.99
.23
.20
1.13
1.99

Laborers, except fa r m ........................................................................................................
Cleaners, ve h ic le ..............................................................................................................

2.7
1.5

.48
.27

3.4
1.9

3.6
2.0

3.6
2.0

.48
.27

Total, all occupations..................................................................................................

4,781.4

100.00

6,472.6

6,551.5

6,588.6

100.00

Professional, technical, and related workers ..................................................................
Musicians ..........................................................................................................................

29.8
18.4

.62
.38

40.3
24.0

40.8
25.2

41.1
25.3

.62
.38

Managers, officials, and proprietors.................................................................................
Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers ............................................................................

328.7
311.2

6.88
6.51

474.5
450.8

480.3
456.3

483.0
458.9

7.33
6.96

Sales w o rk e rs ......................................................................................................................
Sales c le rk s ......................................................................................................................

54.0
52.9

1.13
1.11

67.3
65.9

68.1
66.7

68.5
67.0

1.04
1.02

Clerical w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, hand ..........................................................................................................
C a s h ie rs ............................................................................................................................
General clerks, office ......................................................................................................
S ecretaries.................................................... ....................................................................
Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse .....................................................................

223.7
2.3
56.8
150.3
4.0
2.8
1.6

4.68
.05
1.19
3.14
.08
.06
.03

310.5
2.6
66.2
222.5
5.4
3.8
2.2

314.3
2.6
67.0
225.2
5.4
3.8
2.3

316.1
2.6
67.3
226.5
5.4
3.8
2.3

4.80
.04
1.02
3.44
.08
.06
.03

Craft and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................................................
Maintenance repairers, general u tility ...........................................................................

4.5
1.9

.09
.04

6.0
2.6

6.1
2.6

6.1
2.6

.09
.04

O peratives............................................................................................................................
Delivery and route w orke rs.............................................................................................
Fuel pump attendants and lubricators..........................................................................

22.2
16.8
1.4

.46
.35
.03

30.0
22.8
1.9

30.4
23.1
1.9

30.6
23.2
1.9

.46
.35
.03

Service w orke rs...................................................................................................................
Building cu sto d ia n s...........................................................................................................
Food service w o rk e rs .......................................................................................................
Bakers, bread and p a s try ...............................................................................................
Bartenders ....................................................................... .................................................
Cooks, restaurant.............................................................................................................

4,112.9
107.1
3,944.9
22.0
240.2
259.9

86.02
2.24
82.51
.46
5.02
5.44

5,536.4
125.2
5,326.7
29.8
329.1
375.0

5,603.8
126.7
5,391.6
30.2
333.1
379.5

5,635.6
127.4
5,422.2
30.4
335.0
381.7

85.54
1.93
82.30
.46
5.08
5.79

E a tin g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s

See footnotes at end of table.




163

E=1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 aiternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

E a tin g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s — C o n t in u e d

Cooks, short order and specialty fast fo o d s ................................................................
Food preparation and service workers, fast food restaurants...................................
Hosts/hostesses, restaurants, lounges, and coffee sh o p s........................................
Kitchen h e lp e rs .................................................................................................................
Pantry, sandwich, and coffee m a kers...........................................................................
Waiters and w aitresses....................................................................................................
Waiters’ assistants............................................................................................................
All other food service w o rk e rs ........................................................................................
Supervisors, nonworking, s e rv ic e ....................................................... .............................

369.2
783.0
92.9
391.7
51.8
1,319.7
192.6
220.2
37.6

7.72
16.37
1.94
8.19
1.08
27.60
4.03
4.61
.79

484.2
1,061.6
125.7
559.9
70.2
1,735.8
238.0
315.2
50.8

490.1
1,074.5
127.2
566.7
71.0
1,757.0
240.9
319.0
51.5

492.9
1,080.6
128.0
569.9
71.4
1,766.9
242.2
320.8
51.8

7.48
16.40
1.94
8.65
1.08
26.82
3.68
4.87
.79

Laborers, except fa r m .........................................................................................................

5.5

.12

7.5

7.6

7.6

.12

Total, all occupations................................................. .................................................

5,350.3

100.00

7,081.6

7,173.9

7,290.3

100.00

Professional, technical, and related w o rk e rs ..................................................................
A ctu a rie s............................................................................................................................
Computer program m ers...................................................................................................
Computer systems analysts ............................................................................................
Financial analysts .............................................................................................................
Public relations specialists...............................................................................................
Accountants and au d ito rs................................................................................................
Brokers’ floor reps and security tra d e rs .......................................................................
Claim examiners, property/casualty insurance............................................................
Credit analysts, c h ie f........................................................................................................
Credit analysts...................................................................................................................
Insurance investigators..................................................... ..............................................
La w ye rs..............................................................................................................................
Personnel and labor relations specialists.....................................................................
Safety insp e cto rs..............................................................................................................
Special agents, insurance................................................................................................
Title examiners and abstractors ....................................................................................
Underwriters ............................... ......................................................................................

506.0
5.6
39.8
31.3
14.9
9.9
74.6
10.6
20.3
8.3
20.5
9.5
9.9
14.4
7.3
25.2
10.3
75.8

9.46
.10
.74
.58
.28
.18
1.39
.20
.38
.16
.38
.18
.18
.27
.14
.47
.19
1.42

696.0
7.3
65.0
54.9
19.6
13.6
102.9
13.0
26.1
11.9
29.3
12.2
13.8
18.5
10.4
38.1
15.2
90.2

706.0
7.4
65.9
55.7
19.8
13.7
104.2
13.1
26.6
12.0
29.5
12.4
14.0
18.7
10.6
38.8
15.7
91.8

718.3
7.5
67.0
56.6
20.2
13.9
106.0
13.4
27.0
12.2
30.1
12.6
14.3
19.0
10.8
39.5
16.1
93.4

9.84
.10
.92
.78
.28
.19
1.45
.18
.37
.17
.41
.17
.20
.26
.15
.54
.22
1.28

Managers, officials, and proprie tors..................................................................................

912.8

17.06

1,268.5

1,284.4

1,305.4

17.90

Sales w o rk e rs............................... .......................................................................................
Real estate brokers .........................................................................................................
Sales agents, sales representatives, real e s ta te .........................................................
Real estate appraisers.....................................................................................................
Sales agents and brokers, insurance...................................................................... ......
Sales agents and representatives, financial s ervice s.................................................
Security salesworkers.......................................................................................................

507.9
17.2
95.7
16.5
244.7
22.4
62.4

9.49
.32
1.79
.31
4.57
.42
1.17

732.3
23.5
166.7
29.2
321.6
33.0
87.3

743.1
23.9
169.1
29.5
327.4
33.3
88.1

756.0
24.2
171.7
30.0
333.1
33.9
90.0

10.36
.33
2.36
.41
4.56
.46
1.23

Clerical w orke rs....................................................................................................................
Adjustment clerks .............................................................................................................
New accounts te lle rs ........................................................................................................
T e lle rs .................................................................................................................................
Accounting clerks ............................................................................................................
Bookkeepers, h a n d ..........................................................................................................
Brokerage c le rk s ..............................................................................................................
C a sh ie rs ................................ ............................................................................................
Checking c le rk s .................................. ..............................................................................
Claims adjusters...............................................................................................................
Claims c le rk s .....................................................................................................................
Claims examiner, insurance............................................................................................
Clerical supervisors..........................................................................................................
Collectors, bill and a c c o u n t............................................................................................
Credit clerks, banking and insurance............................................................................

2,856.9
8.4
67.3
471.5
103.5
68.1
16.5
25.6
18.0
49.9
46.7
47.3
155.3
47.4
49.6

53.40
.16
1.26
8.81
1.93
1.27
.31
.48
.34
.93
.87
.88
2.90
.89
.93

3,632.2
11.2
79.1
607.0
122.0
78.9
20.2
40.8
22.4
78.2
69.7
61.1
214.3
72.2
75.7

3,678.2
11.3
73.9
613.1
123.6
80.0
20.3
41.3
22.7
79.7
70.9
62.2
217.0
72.9
76.4

3,737.3
11.5
81.1
621.7
125.7
81.3
20.8
42.0
23.0
81.0
72.2
63.3
220.5
74.2
77.8

51.27
.16
1.11
8.55
1.72
1.11
.28
.58
.32
1.11
.99
.87
3.03
1.02
1.07

F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d r e a l e s t a t e

See footnotes at end of table.




164

E-1. Employment in selected industries and occupations, 1982 and projected 1995 alternatives—Continued
(Numbers in thousands)
1982

1995 alternatives

Occupation

Number
Number

Percent

Percent
Low

Moderate

High

Finance, in s u r a n c e , a n d r e a l e s t a t e — C o n t i n u e d
Credit reporters ................................................................................................................
File c le rk s ..........................................................................................................................
General clerks, office ......................................................................................................
Insurance checkers .........................................................................................................
Insurance clerks, except m e d ic a l...................................................................