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jl. =?. o 7; 0 3 0 Employment Projections for the 1980's Employment Projections for the 1980's U.S. Department of Labor Ray Marshall, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner June 1979 Bulletin 2030 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D .C . 20402 Stock No. 029-001-02312-0 Preface This bulletin presents the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of the U.S. economy to 1990. It consists of reprints of four articles from the Monthly Labor Review. A few minor corrections have been made to some of the tables as originally printed, and supplementary tables containing data frequently requested have been added as appendixes to three of the articles. These projections are part of the ongoing program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for study of alternative patterns of economic growth. For the historical input-output data upon which the projections are based, see Time Series Data for Input-Output Industries, Bulletin 2005 (1979). Bulletins on methodology and the input-output models used are scheduled for publi cation at a later date. Material in this publication is in the public domain and may be repro duced without permission. Please credit the Bureau of Labor Statistics and cite Employment Projections for the 1980’s, Bulletin 2030. in Contents Page Labor force projections to 1990: three possible paths............................................................................... Population tre n d s..................................................................................................................................... Problems in projecting participation....................................................................................................... The three basic paths................................................................................................................................. Intermediate growth p a th ........................................................................................................................ High-growth scenario................................................................................................................................. Low-growth scenario................................................................................................................................. Socioeconomic im plications.................................................................................................................... Summary and conclusions........................................................................................................................ Tables: 1. Civilian labor force participation rates based on three different growth paths to 1990........... 2. Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, sex, and race; actual 1970 and 1977, projected 1985 and 1990 3. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex,, age, and race, to 1990....................................... 4. Civilian labor force by sex, age, and race; actual 1970 and 1977, projected 1985 and 1990 . . 5. Labor force distribution, by sex, age, and race, to 1990 ............................................................. 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 2 3 4 5 7 Appendix. General assumptions and methodology............................................................................... • 9 The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth.......................................................................... Major assumptions..................................................................................................................................... Aggregate demand................................................................................... .................................................. Income distribution................................................................................................................................ . Employment and hours........................................................................................................................... The high employment alternative........................................................................................................... Tables: 1. Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990.......... 2. The derivation of personal income, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990........ 3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990.................................................................. Appendix. Supplementary tables on gross national product, government account, and major assumptions, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990: A-l. Gross national product by major component (current d o llars)....................................... A-2. Gross national product by major component (average annual rates of change, current dollars).................................................................................................................. A-3. Government account, national income basis...................................................................... A-4. Major exogenous assumptions.............................................................................................. Industry output and employment: BLS projections to 1990.................................................................... Overview of the economy through 1990................................................................................................. Output by industry................................................................................................................................... IV 12 12 14 17 19 21 16 18 20 23 23 24 24 25 25 27 Contents — Continued Page Employment by in d u stry ........................................................................................................................ Output the main factor in job forecast........................................... ...................................................... High employment alternative.................................................................................................................. ^2 35 35 Tables: 1. Average annual rate of change in GNP and major determinants, actual and projected, selected periods 1959-90.......................................................................................................... 2. Distribution of GNP by major components, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 . . . 3. Gross product originating by major sector, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 . . . . 4. Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1968-90................................... 5. Total employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 .................. 6. Changing share of government employment, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90... 26 27 28 30 32 35 Charts: 1: Gross product originating in the total private economy, by major sector, selected years 1959-77, and projections to 1980, 1985, and 1990 ........................................ 2. Total employment by major sector, selected years 1959-77, and projections to 1980, 1985, and 1990............ Appendix. Supplementary tables on output and employment by industry: A-l. Gross domestic output, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 ................................. A-2. Average weekly hours and hours of all persons, actual and projected, selected years 1977-90 .. .................... ............ ............................................................................................. A-3. Factors affecting changes in employment, 1977-90.................................................................. 29 34 37 40 43 Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to 1990.......................................................................... 1 46 Assumptions: laying the groundw ork..................................................................................................... 46 Personal consumption expenditures ....................................................................................................... 47 Gross private domestic investm ent......................................................................................................... 49 Foreign trade.............................................................................................................................................. 51 The Government sector............................................................................................................................. 51 Industry structure of dem and.................................................................................................................. 53 The higher employment alternative......................................................................................................... 54 Tables: 1. Personal consumption expenditures, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 ...................... 2. Personal consumption expenditures, average annual rates of changes, actual and projected, 1959-90 .................................................... 3. Gross private domestic investment, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 .................. 4. Net exports, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 ......................................................... 5. Government purchases, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90....................................... 6. GNP by major industry sector, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 ........................ 48 49 50 52 53 54 Appendix. Supplementary tables on gross national product and final demand components by Economic Growth sector, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990: A -l. Gross national product ............................. ............................................................................ 55 A-2. Personal consumption expenditures.................................................................................. 58 A-3. Personal consumption expenditures, durables.................................................................. 61 A-4. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurables........................................................... 62 A-5. Personal consumption expenditures, services.................................................................... 64 A-6. Gross private domestic investment ...................................................................................... 65 v Contents — Continued Page A -l. A-8. A-9. A-10. A-l 1. A-12. A -l3. A-14. A -l5. A-16. A-17. A-18. A-19. A-20. A-21. A-22. A-23. Nonresidential investment, to ta l.......................................................................................... Nonresidential investment, equipm ent............................................................................... Nonresidential investment, structures................................................................................. Residential investment, structures................................................ ....................................... Change in business inventories...................................................................... ..................... Net exports............................................................................................................................ Exports................................................................................................................................... Im ports................................................................................................................................... Government purchases......................................................................................................... Federal Government purchases, t o t a l ................................................................................. Federal Government purchases, defense............................................................................. Federal Government purchases, nondefense...................................................................... State and local government purchases, to ta l...................................................................... State and local government purchases, education............................................................. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and san itatio n .......................... State and local government purchases, safety .................................................................... State and local government purchases, other...................................................................... VI 68 69 70 71 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 101 103 105 Labor force projections to 1990: three possible paths High, low, and intermediate rates o f projected growth to 1990 all show a drop from the 1970-77 pace; in each, women's participation rates keep rising, the rates for men rise only with high growth P a u l O F l a im and H ow ard N F ullerto n, Jr . For the first time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three significantly different projec tions of future growth for the U.S. work force. Although based on different assumptions about the labor force participation rates for various popula tion groups, all three scenarios anticipate declining rates of labor force growth. As shown in table 1, only during the near-term 1977-85 period and only under high-growth assumptions would the labor force continue to expand at the unprecedented 2.3percent rate of the 1970’s. Behind the general slowdown in labor force growth is the sharp drop of the birth rate in the 1960’s, which means fewer youths will be reaching working age in the 1980’s. Based on underlying population trends, the scenar ios for high, low, and intermediate labor force growth can be summarized as follows: Low growth. The civilian labor force would grow to only 114 million by 1990. The participation rates for women would grow at a much slower pace, corresponding with a projected increase in current ly low fertility rates; their participation rate would reach only 54 percent. The rates for men and older workers of both sexes would continue to drift downward at about the same rates as in the 1970’s. Intermediate growth. The civilian labor force would grow to 119 million persons by 1990 under this moderate-growth 'assumption. The participation rate of women would continue to advance at its current pace until 1985, then taper off with more As explained in this article, the takeoff points used in making the three sets o f projections are 1977 annual averages. Calculated in early 1978, the projections have the following implicit labor force levels for 1978: high growth, 100.1 million; low growth, 97.3 million; and intermediate growth, 99.7 million. The extremely rapid pace o f labor force growth that unexpect edly continued through the first half o f 1978 now indicates that the increase between the annual averages for 1977 and 1978 will approach 3 million. This growth is 1 million higher than the average annual gains posted during the 1970-77 period. As a result, the 1978 actual annual average probably will be slightly above the level implicit in the high-growth scenario. It is, o f course, much too early to tell how this development will affect labor force growth to 1985 and 1990. However, it is suggested that those who use these projections to construct their own estimates o f the labor force for the next 2 or 3 years note how the actual labor force growth during the 1977-78 period compares with the growth implicit in these long-term projections. High growth. The civilian labor force would reach 126 million persons by 1990, primarily based on a continuing surge in the labor force participation rates of women, which would reach 60 percent. Participation rates for black men would reverse their recent downward trend and nearly equal the slightly increased 80-percent rate of white men. Rates for older workers would decline only slightly. Paul O. Flaim is chief, Division o f Labor Force Studies, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. Howard N Fullerton, Jr., is a labor economist in the same division. An earlier version o f this article was presented at the annual meeting o f the American Statistical Association held in San Diego in August 1978. 1 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990 Table 1. Civilian labor force participation ratea based on three different growth paths to 1990 Civilian labor fore* Civilian labor force participation rates Growth path* Actual (in millions) Annual parcant change1 (in million*) 1970 1977 1985 1977 1985 1990 to Total High growth Interm ediate Low growth Men High growth Interm ediate Low growth Women High growth Interm ediate Low growth 1985 1990 to Projected Actual to 1977 1985 1990 60.4 62.3 67.7 65.3 63.0 69.7 66.2 63.0 1.0 .7 .4 79.7 77.7 79.4 77.0 74.7 80.0 76.4 73.3 2.0 1.7 1.3 43.3 48.4 57.1 54.8 52.4 60.4 57.1 53.8 1970 1977 path ................................................... growth p a th ....................................... path . 82.7 97.4 117.0 113.0 108.9 125.6 119.4 113.5 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 .8 path ................................................... growth p a th ....................................... p a th ..................................................... 51.2 57.4 65.0 63.0 61.2 68.2 65.1 62.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 .8 path ................................................... growth p a th ....................................... p a th ..................................................... 31.5 40.0 52.0 49.9 47.7 57.4 54.3 51.0 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.2 1970 1Compounded continuously. migration trends. The decennial census is used as the starting points for the projections. It has long been known that census counts are deficient for some groups.4 Despite these problems, the basic trends in the size and configuration of the American population can be charted with some assurance from now to 1990. The changes implicit in these trends will have a great impact on the growth of the labor force. Perhaps the most important feature of the population dynamics for the 1980’s will be the sharp decline in the number of youths age 16 to 24, which is an inevitable consequence of the drop in the birth rate during the 1960’s. Reflecting this development, the civilian noninstitutional popula tion age 16 and over, which should grow by 26.8 million or 19.6 percent from 1970 to 1980, is projected to grow by only 16.4 million or 10.0 percent from 1980 to 1990. The population trends for the major age-sexrace groups are shown in table 2. The “net changes” columns in this table show most dramati cally how the past growth of the teenage ranks will be reversed between now and 1985 and how, with some obvious delay, this process also will affect the ranks of those age 20 to 24. Clearly, there will be many fewer young persons in the late 1980’s than is the case today. Another important demographic development is that, while the teenage ranks thin, the population in the central age groups will swell, as the millions of persons bom in the post-World-War II baby boom reach middle age. The sharp drop in the youth population combined with the crowding of the baby-boom cohorts into middle age will have a large impact on the growth and configuration of the Nation’s labor force. Labor force growth, however, is also a function of the trends in labor force participation among the various population moderate increases to reach a 57-percent participa tion level by 1990. The rates for men would continue to drop, but at a more moderate pace. This would also be the case for older workers. It is the custom of BLS to update and revise its labor force projections every 2 or 3 years. The updates and revisions are necessary because the actual path of labor force growth has often diverged considerably from the projections. This has been especially the case during the 1970’s, when the phenomenal growth of women in the labor force has far exceeded the projections by BLS—as well as those of many other forecasters. The reasons for the divergences between projec tions and the actual labor force trends were the topic of a special evaluation by BLS.1 On the basis of this evaluation, some changes in the methodolo gy have been introduced in making a new round of projections. In addition, three alternative sets of projections, rather than the typical single projec tion, have been prepared.2 Population trends In making labor force projections, BLS generally has relied upon the population projections pre pared by the Bureau of the Census; this procedure was followed once again. The specific population estimates used were those published by the Bureau of the Census in July 1977, covering the 1977-2050 period.3 The population data for the period covered by this round of labor force projections— only 12 years—contain little uncertainty. After all, even the persons who will be 16 years of age in 1990 are already 4 years old, and thus can be counted with reasonable accuracy. There are, of course, some minor problems even in projecting a population that can be counted. Important assumptions must be made about the future course of mortality rates and about net 2 groups. The projections of these trends is fraught with much more uncertainty than the projections of population trends. future scenario that is either physically impossi b le -su c h as labor force participation rates exceed ing 100 percent or dropping below zero—or a situation that seems highly implausible given the prevailing notions about what the future will (or should) be like, BLS analysts have intervened to alter the course of the extrapolated line. To illustrate one of the latter problems, if labor force participation rates of women age 25 to 29— one of the principal childbearing groups—were extrapolated linearly from their rapidly rising trends of the 1970’s, they would cross the rates for men of comparable age before the 1980’s are over. Could this be visualized as a plausible situation? We think not, even if the fertility rate, which is one of the determinants of labor force participation for this group, remains at its currently depressed levels. And should the fertility rate rise sig nificantly, these women could hardly be expected to enter the job market in ever larger numbers. Therefore, in projecting the labor force participa- Problems in projecting participation In projecting the labor force participation rates of the various population groups, BLS generally has relied on extrapolation of the historical trends in the rates for these groups. This procedure, with some modifications, was followed again in making these new sets of projections. The possibility of tying the participation projections to the future course of other variables which are known to influence participation—wage rates, for example— was considered, but was rejected as impractical. Also considered—but deferred at least until further research is conducted—was the option of making “cohort” projections, where specific groups are followed through time. This is not to say that the projections presented here are based on purely linear—and mechani cal-extrapolation of historical trends. They are not. Where extrapolation of past trends yields a Table 2. Civilian noninstttutlonal population, by age, sex, and race; actual 1970 and 1977, projected 1985 and 1990 [Numbers in thousands] Actual population Projected population Not changes Sex, age, and race 1970 1977 1905 1990 1977 IM S 1970 1977 1995 1977 1995 19M 1977 1995 19M to Total, age 16 and o v e r.......................................... Men, age 16 and over.............................................. 16 to 24 ......................................................... 16 to 1 9 ........................... 20 to 2 4 ..................................................................... 25 to 54 ............................................................. 55 and over ....................... 55 to 6 4 ....................................... 65 and over .............. Women, age 16 and o v e r___ 16 to 24 ............................. 16 to 1 9 ........................... 20 to 2 4 ............................................... 25 to 54 ............................... 55 and over .............................................................. 55 to 64 ....................................................................... 65 and over ........................................ 136,995 64,261 13,993 7,142 6,851 33,592 16,677 8,588 8,089 72,734 15,824 7,371 8,453 36,354 20,556 9,649 10,907 156,426 73,963 17,363 8,167 9,196 37,885 18,714 9,518 9,196 82,462 18,166 8,303 9,863 40,574 23,717 10,648 13,069 172,935 81,851 16,320 6,874 9,446 44,714 20,817 10,217 10,600 91,064 17,098 7,016 10,082 47,363 26,623 11,292 15,331 180,236 85,265 14,657 6,477 8,180 49,240 21,368 9,820 11,548 94,971 15,409 6,596 8,813 52,067 27,495 10,738 16,757 19,431 9,702 3,370 1,025 2,345 4,293 2,037 930 1,107 While Total, age 16 and over ......................... Men age 16 and over .................................................. 16 to 2 4 ......................................................................... 25 to 54 ............................. 55 and over ............................................................... Women, age 16 and over ...................................... 16 to 24 ....................................................... 25 to 54 ............................. 55 and over ................................................... 122,112 57,488 12,160 30,104 15,224 64,624 13,704 32,106 18,812 137,595 65,478 14,964 33,597 16,917 72,117 15,407 35,245 21,465 150,057 71,525 13,717 39,123 18,685 78,532 14,166 40,488 23,878 14,883 6,773 1,832 3,488 1,454 8,110 2,118 4,247 1,744 18,831 6,486 2,401 4,288 1,796 10,345 2,759 5,333 2,252 22,836 10,293 2,586 5,574 2,133 12,543 2,914 6,876 2,753 Mack and olier Total, age 16 and o v e r.......................................... Men, age 16 and over................................................. 16 to 2 4 ........................................................... 25 to 54 ................................................... 55 and over .............................................................. Women, age 16 and over ............................................ 16 to 2 4 .............................. 25 to 5 4 ................. 55 and over ............ ' Compounded continuously. 3 Annual percent change1 1970 to to to to to 2,162 16,509 7,888 -1,043 •1,293 250 6,829 2,103 699 1,404 8,622 -1,068 -1,287 219 6,789 2,906 644 2,262 7,301 3,414 •1,663 -397 -1,266 4,526 551 -397 948 3,887 •1,689 -420 -1269 4,704 872 -554 1,426 169 2.01 3.08 1.92 421 1.72 1.65 1.47 163 1.79 167 1.70 220 167 2.04 1.41 268 1.25 127 -.77 -2.15 .34 2.07 1.33 .89 1.78 1.24 -.76 -2.11 27 1.93 1.44 .73 2.00 0.83 .82 -2.15 -1.19 -2.88 1.93 .52 -.79 1.71 .84 -2.06 -1.23 -2.69 1.89 .64 -1.01 1.78 155,001 73,875 12,075 42,760 19,040 81,126 12,530 44,146 24,450 15,483 7,990 2,804 3,493 1,693 7,493 1,703 3,137 2,653 12,462 6,047 -1,247 5,526 1,768 6,415 -1241 5,243 2,413 4,944 2,350 -1,642 3,637 355 2,594 -1,636 3,658 572 1.71 166 266 167 161 167 1.67 163 168 1.06 1.10 -1.09 1.90 1.24 1.07 -1.05 1.73 1.33 .65 .65 -2.55 1.78 .38 .65 -2.45 1.73 .47 25,171 11,339 2,559 6,454 2,326 13,832 2,860 7,922 3,050 3,948 1,713 569 800 342 2,235 641 1,086 508 4,005 1,807 185 1,286 337 2,198 155 1,543 501 2,335 1,046 -27 880 193 1,289 -54 1,046 297 366 322 366 2.95 3.02 3.48 3.78 325 3.65 2.41 2.41 .93 3.28 2.15 2.41 .68 3.18 2.51 1.95 1.94 -.21 2.93 1.73 1.96 -.37 2.83 2.05 9,728 2,342 982 1,410 4,220 3,161 999 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990 tion rates for women, it seemed logical to apply the constraint that these rates not be allowed to cross the participation rates for men of comparable age. A dilemma of a slightly different nature arises in making separate projections of labor force growth by race. Here, linear extrapolations of historical trends yield an ever-larger gap between the participation rate of white men and the already much lower rate of black men. Although certainly plausible, such a future scenario can be hardly reconciled with a National policy intended to lead to an equalization of employment opportunity for the two races. Aside from such obvious problems, many other areas of uncertainty with regard to the future trends in participation can be listed. Take, for example, the extent to which the youth of the future might choose school over work, or vice versa; the possible impact of recent changes in retirement legislation on the labor force activity of older workers; and the future course of transfer payments and their possible impact on the propen sity to work among recipients in all age groups. To deal more effectively with these and other uncer tainties, three different sets of projections, rather than a single one, were prepared. growth projections trace the steep upward-sloping path that these rates would have to follow if they were to reach the high-growth rate for white men by the year 2000. (Ajnd the latter, as noted above, were generally held constant at current levels.) For some black groups, the high-growth projec tions would entail a sharp departure from the trends in participation exhibited over the past two decades. Although such a complete turnaround is unlikely (a few age groups have experienced recent gains), such projections are useful in illustrating what has been accomplished and what remains to be done in order to have blacks sharing equally in the economic progress of the Nation. There is also a considerable degree of common ality among the three sets of projections in terms of the most basic changes in the age configuration of the labor force. Because the important changes in the population structure are reflected in all three sets of projections, each shows a large decline in the size of the youth labor force and a big increase in the labor force accounted for by persons age 25 to 54. (These changes in the size and configuration of the labor force are shown in absolute terms in table 4.) Now, we will examine the basic Table 3. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex, age, and race, to 1990 The three basic paths Although yielding significantly different results in terms of the overall labor force levels for 1985 and 1990, the three sets of projections still have a considerable degree of commonality among them. All three are based on assumptions of: further rises in the labor force participation rates of teenagers of both sexes; considerable further gains in labor force activity among women in the central age groups; and further declines in the participation rates of older workers of both sexes. (See table 3.) With regard to these three groups and, particular ly, with regard to whites in these groups, the three sets of projections point in the same general directions and differ only in terms of the expected rate of change. With regard to the participation rates for men in the central age groups, those for whites are again projected to diverge little under the three alterna tive growth paths. Generally, they are held con stant in the high-growth projections, decline only very slightly in the intermediate-growth projec tions, and are allowed to decline a bit more in the low-growth projections. The group for which the three sets of projections differ most radically in terms of direction (or sign) are black men. For this group, the low-growth projections follow the declining path which has been evident in recent years, whereas the high [Percent] Actual Sex, age, and race Total, age 16 and over Men, age 16 and over . . . 16 to 24 ......................... 16 to 1 9 ....................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. Women, age 16 and over 16 to 2 4 ......................... 16 to 1 9 ....................... 20 to 24 ....................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... 55 to 64 ....................... 65 and over ................. Projected UI.L rwgn growth Intermediate growth Low “ growin 1970 1977 1985 1990 1985 1990 1985 1990 60.4 79.7 69.4 56.1 83.3 95.8 55.7 83.0 26.8 43.3 51.3 44.0 57.7 50.1 25.3 43.0 9.7 62.3 77.7 74.1 61.0 85.7 94.2 47.5 74.0 20.1 48.4 59.6 51.4 66.5 58.4 22.9 41.0 8.1 67.7 79.4 78.9 66.8 87.8 95.1 46.1 73.5 19.7 57.1 73.2 63.5 79.9 70.9 22.1 41.5 7.8 69.7 80.0 81.0 70.8 89.1 95.6 43.5 73.3 18.1 60.4 78.2 68.9 85.2 76.1 20.7 41.8 7.2 65.3 77.0 76.4 63.6 85.7 93.5 41.9 68.1 16.7 54.8 69.8 59.7 76.8 68.5 21.0 40.2 6.8 66.2 76.4 76.1 64.8 85.0 93.1 38.0 65.0 15.0 57.1 72.8 62.8 80.4 72.4 19.3 39.8 6.2 63.0 74.7 74.4 61.5 83.7 92.2 37.5 64.1 11.9 52.4 66.2 55.4 73.7 65.9 19.5 38.1 5.9 63.0 73.3 73.3 61.9 82.4 91.1 32.2 59.0 9.4 53.8 67.3 56.8 75.2 69.0 17.2 36.6 4.8 60.2 80.0 70.2 96.3 55.8 42.6 52.1 48.8 24.9 62.6 78.5 76.2 94.9 48.0 48.1 61.8 57.6 22.7 67.9 79.9 80.7 95.6 46.4 57.1 76.5 71.1 21.8 69.8 80.2 82.4 95.8 43.6 60.4 81.6 76.6 20.3 65.9 77.9 79.6 94.4 42.2 54.9 73.7 68.5 20.7 66.9 77.4 80.2 94.1 38.1 57.4 77.7 72.9 19.0 63.5 75.7 77.8 93.1 37.7 52.4 70.0 65.7 19.3 63.7 74.3 77.9 92.1 32.2 53.9 72.0 69.3 17.0 61.8 76.5 64.5 91.9 54.8 49.5 46.2 59.1 30.0 60.0 71.0 60.7 88.6 43.0 50.9 47.4 63.6 25.2 65.9 76.5 70.4 92.1 43.4 57.2 57.5 70.1 24.8 68.9 79.2 75.3 94.2 42.1 60.5 64.1 733 23.8 61.7 70.5 59.6 87.5 39.3 54.4 51.4 68.2 23.1 62.0 69.9 57.4 86.9 36.8 55.5 52.0 69.9 21.6 59.6 68.2 56.5 86.0 36.1 52.6 48.0 67.1 21.2 58.9 66.6 52.5 84.7 31.9 52.7 47.2 67.7 18.7 White Total, age 16 and over Men, age 16 and o v e r. . . 16 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... Women, age 16 and over 16 to 2 4 ......................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... Black and odier Total, age 16 and over Men, age 16 and over . . . 16 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... Women, age 16 and over 16 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ........................ 55 and over ................... 4 Table 4. Civilian labor force by aex, age, and race; actual 1970 and 1977, prelected 1985 and 1990 [N u m b e rs in th o u s a n d s ] Pro|§ctod S n , aga, and race Total, ag« 16 and o v e r..................................................................... Man, age 16 and o v e r....................................................................... 16 to 24 ......................... 16 to 1 9 ............................................................... 20 to 24 ............................................................................... 25 to 54 ............................................... 55 and over ............................................................... 55 to 6 4 ............................. 65 and o v e r..................................................... Woman, aga 16 and over ....................................................................... 16 to 24 ................................................................... 16 to 1 9 ..................................................... 20 to 24 ......................................... 25 to 54 ......................................................................... 55 and over ............................................................................. 55 to 64 ................................................... 65 and over ............................. 1970 . . -«■-»■* im erm eow e yrvw u: High powth 1977 Low growth 1990 1916 1990 1995 1990 1995 82,715 51,195 9,715 4,006 5,709 32,193 9,288 7,124 2,164 31,520 8,115 3,241 4,874 18,196 5,209 4,153 1,056 97,401 57,449 12,862 4,985 7,877 35,698 8,888 7,043 1,845 39,952 10,823 4,267 6,556 23,692 5,432 4,367 1,065 117,005 65,013 12,882 4,589 8,293 42,533 9,598 7,506 2,092 51,992 12,510 4,457 8,053 33,596 5,886 4,683 1,203 125,603 68,220 11,879 4,587 7,292 47,056 9,285 7,197 2,088 57,383 12,054 4,546 7,508 39,630 5,699 4,487 1,212 112,953 63,007 12,465 4,374 8,091 41,824 8,718 6,953 1,766 49,945 11,934 4,192 7,742 32,432 5,580 4,536 1,044 119,366 65,115 11,156 4,199 6,957 45,845 8,114 6,383 1,731 54,253 11,225 4,139 7,086 37,713 5,313 4,270 1,043 106,900 61,166 12,134 4,225 7,909 41,219 7,616 6,551 1,265 47,731 11,315 3,887 7,428 31,220 5,196 4,297 899 113,521 62,472 10,744 4,007 6,737 44,844 6,884 5,796 1,088 51,049 10,375 3,749 6,626 35,942 4,732 3,925 807 73,518 46,013 8,533 28,968 8,492 27,506 7,135 15,684 4,686 86,107 51,421 11,405 31,900 8,116 34,686 9,525 20,307 4,864 101,951 57,137 11,064 37,399 8,674 44,614 10,635 28,777 5,202 106^53 59,234 9,964 40,976 8,304 49,019 10,219 33,826 4,974 98,876 55,753 10,925 36,949 7,879 43,123 10,437 27,743 4,943 103,751 57,185 9,689 40,237 7,259 46,566 9,736 32,178 4,652 95,285 54,147 10,676 36,425 7,046 41,138 9,915 26,610 4,613 96,686 54,921 9,401 39,380 6,140 43,765 9,024 30,579 4,162 9,197 5,182 1,181 3,205 797 4,015 979 2,512 523 11,294 6,028 1,458 3,798 772 5,266 1,307 3,390 568 15,058 7,879 1,820 5,134 925 7,179 1,675 4,820 684 17,350 8,986 1,926 6,080 980 8,364 1,834 5,804 726 14,079 7,256 1,542 4,875 839 6,823 1,497 4,690 636 15,615 7,930 1,468 5,606 656 7,683 1,488 5,537 660 13,618 7,022 1,460 4,792 770 6,596 1,400 4,612 584 14,836 7,550 1,343 5,464 743 7,286 1,351 5,364 571 WMo Total, aga 16 and o v e r..................................................................... Man, age 16 and o v e r......................................... 16 to 24 ................................................... 25 to 54 ................................................... 55 and over ................................................. Woman, aga 16 and over ....................................................................... 16 to 24 ................................................................................................. 25 to 54 ................................................................................................. 55 and over ........................................................................................... M ack and oM er Total, aga 16 and o v e r..................................................................... Man, aga 16 and o v e r............................................................................. 16 to 2 4 ................................................................................. 25 to 5 4 ................................................................................................. 55 and over ........................................................................................... Woman, aga 16 and over ....................................................................... 16 to 24 ......................................................................................... 25 to 54 ........................................................................... 55 and over ........................................................................................... ^ differences among the three sets of projections and their underlying assumptions. moderate rate o f increase. Under these assumptions, the overall rate o f labor force participation for women would rise from its 48.4-percent average for 1977 to 54.8 percent by 1985, reaching 57.1 percent by 1990. Intermediate growth path • For older workers, both men and women, labor force participation would continue to decline under this scenario, but at a much slower pace relative to the drop registered over the 1970-77 period. For men age 55 and over, the labor force participation rate would drop from 47.5 to 38.0 percent between 1977 and 1990; for women age 55 and over, the rate would edge down from 22.9 to 19.3 percent over the same period. Under the intermediate-growth assumptions, the civilian labor force would reach 113.0 million by 1985 and 119.4 million by 1990. Contributing to this growth would be the expansion of the working-age population and a rise in the civilian labor force participation rate from 62.3 percent in 1977 to 66.2 percent by 1990. The basic assumptions which underlie this scenario are as follows: • Continuing the pattern o f the 1970’s, the overall rate o f participation would increase more for whites than for the “black and other”5 component o f the population. The civilian labor force rate for whites would rise from 62.6 to 66.9 percent over the 1977-90 period, while the rate for “black and others” would rise from 60.0 to 62.0 percent. Nevertheless, because o f the much more rapid increase in the black population, the proportion o f the labor force accounted for by “black and other races” would still increase some—from 11.6 to 13.1 percent. • For men, labor force participation would continue to edge down, although not as fast as over the 1970-77 period. The overall participation rate for men would be 76.4 percent in 1990 compared with 77.7 percent in 1977. • The only group o f men for whom the participation rates would rise significantly under this scenario are teenagers— reaching a rate o f 64.8 percent by 1990, up from 61.0 percent in 1977. Under these assumptions, women would con tinue to increase their share of the labor force, which would reach 45 percent by 1990, up from 41 percent in 1977. Another important development, inherent to this as well as the other two scenarios, is the large growth in the proportion of the labor • Labor force participation rates of women would rise substantially, with the rise continuing at the pace o f the 1970-77 period, then slowing down gradually to a more 5 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990 force in the central age groups. Reflecting, primari ly, the sharp decline in the youth population and the anticipated continuation of the decline—albeit at a reduced pace—in labor force participation among older workers, the proportion of the work force accounted for by persons age 25 to 54 should expand from 61 to 70 percent over the 1977-90 period. The growing labor force role of persons age 25 to 54. who have considerable work experience and are generally very productive, should help to sustain the economic growth of the Nation. In terms of age distribution, the high-growth assumptions would imply an increase in the labor force proportion of persons age 25 to 54 from 61 percent in 1977 to 69.0 percent in 1990—an increase only slightly smaller than that implicit in the intermediate-growth scenario. Low-growth scenario Under the low-growth scenario, the civilian labor force is projected to grow only to 108.9 million by 1985 and to 113.5 million by 1990. As shown in table 1, this would imply an annual rate of growth of 1.4 percent (compounded) for the 1977-85 period and 0.8 percent for the 1985-90 period, substantially below the growth rate of 2.3 percent for the 1970-77 period. This very low rate of labor growth could be attained if: High-growth scenario Under the high-growth scenario, the civilian labor force would reach 117.0 million by 1985 and 125.6 million by 1990. Most of the growth underlying these assumptions would be accounted for by women, whose civilian labor force participa tion rate would rise to 57.1 percent by 1985 and to 60.4 percent by 1990. The basic assumptions which underlie the high-growth projection are the follow ing: • The labor force participation rates for adult men would continue to drift downward, at least for the initial years of the projection period. This would lower the civilian labor force participation rate o f men to 73.3 percent by 1990, down from 77.7 percent in 1977. • The rise in the labor force participation rates o f women of child-bearing age would be slowed down considerably by a rebound from their currently low fertility rate. It was assumed for the purpose o f these projections that, begin ning in 1980, the fertility rate would move toward the Series I path in the Census projections, implying that each women would have an average o f 2.7 children compared with the average o f 1.8 children in recent years.6 Principally because o f this constraint, but also because the labor force rates for women outside the child-bearing group would be assumed to rise at a lesser pace than under either o f the other two scenarios, the overall civilian labor force participation rate for women age 16 and over would rise to only 53.8 percent by 1990, up from 48.4 percent in 1977. • At least for the initial years o f the projection period, the participation rates for women in the young and central age groups would continue to rise at the very rapid pace o f the most recent years. (However, in no case would the rates for women cross the rates for men o f comparable age.) • The historical downward drift in the participation rates of white men in the central age groups would come to a halt, with these rates remaining essentially constant or rising slightly during the projection period. • The participation rates for black men would not only halt their historical decline but would turn upward, so as to converge with the rates for white men of comparable age by the year 2000. H ow ever, they still w ou ld differ con sid erab ly in 1990. • The participation rates for older workers would continue to decline roughly at the pace o f the 1970’s, the hypothesis being, in part, that the recent changes in legislation concerning mandatory retirement might not have any impact on the labor force trends for older workers. • The participation rates o f persons age 65 and over would not decline any further during the first 8 years o f the projection period, reflecting the temporary impact o f the recent legislation raising the minimum age o f mandatory retirement to 70 in the private sector and banning the practice altogether for Federal workers. • The participation rates o f teenagers would continue to advance but at a slower pace than implied in the other growth scenarios. Under this growth path, the proportion of the labor force accounted for by women would grow slightly faster than under the intermediate-growth scenario. With high growth, it would expand from 41 percent in 1977 to 46 percent in 1990. These projections would also entail a very significant expansion in the proportion of the labor force accounted for by blacks, whose participation rates under this scenario are assumed to move toward convergence with white rates. Should the path toward convergence be followed, there would be an increase in the “black and other” share of the civilian labor force from 11.6 percent in 1977 to 13.8 percent by 1990. There are not yet any signs that the hypothe sized rebound in the fertility rate, which is crucial to these participation assumptions, is about to take place. There are, nevertheless, some demographers who believe that it will take place. Richard Easterlin, for example, believes that the decline in the youth proportion of the population during the early 1980’s will be accompanied by exactly such a phenomenon.7 Even under this scenario, however, the propor tion of the labor force accounted for by women would expand significantly—from 41 percent in 1977 to 45 percent in 1990. There would again be a 6 substantial rise in the proportion of the labor force accounted for by persons age 25 to 54, as this is a development stemming essentially from population dynamics that are the same under each of the three scenarios. On the other hand, the racial composi tion of the labor force would change very little under these assumptions, as the participation rates for some black groups are allowed to decline considerably, nearly offsetting the increase in the black proportion of the population. substantially from the reduced competition for jobs among youths in general. Although the number of youths in the labor force will drop, the number of workers age 25 to 54 will expand considerably, reflecting the gradual aging of the post-World War II baby boom. (See table 5.) The implications of this development are that the labor force, in general, will be more mature, composed of persons with considerable work experience, and, supposedly, very productive. In terms of potential output, this development should tend to offset, at least partially, the effects of the numerical decline in labor force growth during the 1980’s. But it is worth noting again that, under all three sets of projections, there would be an increase in the proportion of the labor force who are women; this also has considerable implications in terms of potential output. The consequences of this development, as far as output is concerned, will depend heavily on the extent to which women—particularly those with children— will be able to work on a full-time basis. Socioeconom ic im plications Inherent in the labor force growth paths traced by these sets of projections and in the population trends which underlie them are some important implications for the social and economic develop ment of our Nation during the 1980’s. There should be, for example, some improvement in the employment situation of youths. In general, the labor force should be more mature and thus somewhat more productive; the ratio of nonwork ers to workers in the total population would narrow in at least two of the scenarios, a develop ment that should lead to further improvements in our overall standard of living. The coming decline in the youth population should lessen the competition for jobs among youths, narrowing the relative gap between their jobless rates and those for older workers. This gap was much smaller before the youth population began increasing rapidly during the mid-1960’s, and its subsequent widening has been directly linked by some economists to the “crowding” effect caused by the entry of ever-larger numbers of youths into the job market.8 Of course, the sharp reduction in the number of youths should also have a negative impact on college enrollments and on the production and marketing of those goods and services traditionally aimed at the youth market. It should also be noted that the decline in the youth proportion of the population will not be nearly as pronounced for blacks as for whites. The black population historically has had a much higher birth rate than the white population and, thus, a larger component of young persons. This will continue to be the case. Although the birth rate also has been slackening among blacks, the number of black youths is still projected to rise slightly during the 1980’s. Because black youths traditionally have had very high unemployment rates, the increase of the black proportion of the youth population will tend to keep the overall youth jobless rate high. It can be hypothesized, however, that even black youths will benefit Table 5. Labor force distribution, by sex, age, and race, to 1990 [P e rc e n t] Projected a n iM i Sex, age, and n e t 1970 1977 Htgh growth 1985 Total, age 16 and over Men, age 16 and over . . . 16 to 24 ......................... 16 to 1 9 ................... 20 to 2 4 ................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... 55 to 64 ................... 65 and over ............. Women, age 16 and over 16 to 2 4 ......................... 16 to 19 ........................... 20 to 24 ........................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... 55 to 64 ........................... 65 and over ..................... 1990 ■‘ -»«-*in m in e a ia ie growth 1905 1900 Low growth 1905 1990 100.0 61.9 11.7 4.8 6.9 38.9 11.2 8.6 2.6 38.1 9.8 3.9 5.9 22.0 6.3 5.0 1.3 100.0 59.0 13.2 5.1 8.1 36.7 9.1 7.2 1.9 41.0 11.1 4.4 6.7 24.3 5.6 4.5 1.1 100.0 55.6 11.0 3.9 7.1 36.4 8.2 6.4 1.8 44.4 10.7 3.8 6.9 28.7 5.0 4.0 1.0 100.0 54.3 9.5 3.7 5.8 37.5 7.4 5.7 1.7 45.7 9.6 3.6 6.0 31.6 4.5 3.6 1.0 100.0 55.8 11.0 3.9 7.2 37.0 7.7 6.2 1.6 44.2 10.6 3.7 6.9 28.7 4.9 4.0 .9 100.0 54.6 9.3 3.5 5.8 38.4 6.8 5.3 1.5 45.5 9.4 3.5 5.9 31.6 4.5 3.6 .9 100.0 56.2 11.1 3.9 7.3 37.9 7.2 6.0 1.2 43.8 10.4 3.6 6.8 28.7 4.8 3.9 .8 100.0 55.0 9.5 3.5 5.9 39.5 6.1 5.1 1.0 45.0 9.1 3.3 5.8 31.7 4.2 3.5 .7 88.9 55.6 10.3 35.0 10.3 33.3 8.6 19.0 5.7 88.4 52.8 11.7 32.8 8.3 35.6 9.8 20.8 5.0 87.1 48.8 9.5 32.0 7.4 38.3 9.3 24.6 4.4 86.2 47.2 7.9 32.6 6.6 39.0 8.1 26.9 4.0 87.5 49.4 9.7 32.7 7.0 38.2 9.2 24.6 4.4 86.9 47.9 8.1 33.7 6.1 39.0 8.2 27.0 3.9 87.5 49.7 9.8 33.4 6.5 37.8 9.1 24.4 4.2 86.9 48.4 8.3 34.7 5.4 38.6 7.9 26.9 3.7 11.1 6.3 1.4 3.9 1.0 4.9 1.2 3.0 .6 11.6 6.2 1.5 3.9 .8 5.4 1.3 3.5 .6 12.9 6.7 1.6 4.4 .8 6.1 1.4 4.1 .6 13.8 7.2 1.5 4.8 .8 6.7 1.5 4.6 .6 12.5 6.4 1.4 4.3 .7 6.0 1.3 4.2 .6 13.1 6.6 1.2 4.7 .7 6.4 1.2 4.6 .6 U A .U . W llfIS Total, age 16 and over Men, age 16 and over . . . 16 t o 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... Women, age 16 and over 16 to 2 4 ......................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... cHocx ana omaf Total, age 16 and over Men, age 16 and over . . . 16 to 24 ......................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... Women, age 16 and over 16 to 2 4 ......................... 25 to 54 ......................... 55 and over ................... 7 12.5 6.4 1.3 4.4 .7 6.1 1.3 4.2 .5 13.1 6.7 1.2 4.8 .7 6.4 1.2 4.7 .5 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990 Another important implication of these projec tions is that persons age 55 and over, and particularly those over 65, will continue to show an increased preference for leisure over work. The three sets of projections differ in this respect only in terms of how much lower the participation rates of older persons may go. Under the high-growth assumptions, these rates would decline very little; in the low-growth scenario they would continue to drift downward as they have over the past decade. The rationale for these assumptions is that, although the recent changes in mandatory retire ment legislation might be expected to slow the decline in participation among the 65-69 age group, a sudden upturn in any of the rates for older workers is unlikely. With the general tendency toward earlier retirement expected to continue, the proportion of older persons who are outside the labor force is projected to be larger in 1990 than it is now. Despite this projected development, the “eco nomic dependency ratio,” that is, the ratio of nonworkers to workers in the entire population, including children, should narrow considerably during the 1980’s. This ratio stood at 117.8 in 1977, meaning that there were 117.8 nonworkers for every 100 workers in the population. Assuming that the birth rate will not increase much from current levels, the dependency ratio would decline considerably, both under the high-growth and the intermediate-growth scenarios. Only under the low-growth scenario, which is predicated on a sharp rise in the birth rate and on a very small increase in the overall labor force participation rate, would the “economic dependency ratio” remain at current levels (1977 = 117.8), as shown in the following tabulation: entering the central age groups, begin to retire. But that is a development far beyond the scope of these projections. As already noted, the implications for blacks vary considerably with each of the three scenarios. Under the high-growth scenario, the labor force participation rates for blacks would move toward convergence with the rates for whites. For black men, this would imply a sharp reversal of long-run trends and a return to the situation in the mid1950’s, when their participation rates differed little from those of white men. Since then, their participation rates have dropped much more rapidly than those of white men, creating a substantial gap. In this context, the high-growth scenario, which would gradually lead toward a complete elimination of this gap, might be regard ed as illustrative of the difficult path that has to be traveled to have black men participating fully in the economic life of our Nation. The labor force trends of black and white women have been much different. Although participation has been increasing at a faster pace for white than for black women, the rates for black women in the central age groups are still higher than those for white women. The question is: with participation among white women fast approach ing the level for black women, will the rates for the two groups gradually converge and then move together, or will they cross and diverge? Here, as in the case of men, the high-growth scenario would imply a gradual movement toward parity in the rates for the two racial groups. In the two other scenarios, the rates for white women would cross and eventually exceed those of black women. Summary and conclusions Level o f labor force growth High growth ........................... Intermediate growth ............ Low growth ........................... Economic dependency ratio 1985 1990 92.2 99.0 115.2 85.0 94.5 120.3 Labor force growth should slow down during the 1980’s, largely because the working age population will be expanding much more slowly than during the 1970’s. The youth labor force should actually decline considerably, reflecting the protracted decline in the birth rate during the 1960’s and early 1970’s. Concomitant with this development should be a significant increase in the proportion of the work force age 25 to 54. The precise extent to which these developments will affect the size and configuration of the labor force depends on the assumptions made about the future participation rates of the various population groups. For each population group, we projected the participation rates according to three different paths. These alternative rates were then applied to the population estimates, with the results being The implications of the high-growth and intermediate-growth scenarios with regard to the dependency ratio is that each worker would have fewer nonworkers to feed, clothe and house—this should help improve our overall standard of living. Even with low rates of labor force growth and a sharp rebound of the birth rate, there still would not be a significant widening of this important ratio during the 1980’s. The ratio is, of course, expected to widen considerably after the year 2000, when the post-World War II babies, who are now 8 to come true or if, alternatively, overprojections for a group or set of groups were to be offset precisely by underprojections for m other group or set of groups. The probability tha.t the actual h b o r force trends will follow either of the three scenarios exuctly may not be very high. Nevertheless, the three sets of projections should shed some useful light for phnners and policymakers on the possible paths of future h b o r force growth. □ aggregatcd into a high-growth scenario, an intermediate-growth scenario, and a low-growth scenario. The resulting labor force levels for 1990 were, respectively, 125.6 million, 119.4 million, and 113.5 million. There is, of course, nothing sacred about these numbers. Each represents nothing more than the h b o r force levels tha.t would be reached if the alternative assumptions made about the labor force trends for the many population groups were FOOTNOTES- 4 “Estimates o f Coverage o f Population by Sex, Race, and Age,” Bureau o f the Census, Report PHC (E-4). 1 See Paul M. Ryscavage, “An Evaluation o f BLS Labor Force Projections,” presented at the meetings o f the American Statistical Association in San Diego, California, Aug. 16, 1978. 5 The black and other category includes Negroes, American Indians, Eskimos, Asians, and others. At the time o f the 1970 Census o f Population, 89 percent o f this population group was black. 2 The projections made by BLS in 1973 and 1976 did show two alternative paths o f labor force growth, but these did not differ much from the “main” projections, as the only group for whom alternative projections were made were women o f child-bearing age. See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., and Paul O. Flaim, “New labor force projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1976, pp. 3-13, and Denis F. Johnston, “The U.S. labor force: projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13. 6 “Projections o f the Population...” 7 See Richard A. Easterlin, Michael L. Wachter, and Susan M. Wachter, “Demographic Influences on Economic Stability: The United States Experience,” Population and Development Review, March 1978. 8 Michael L. Wachter, “The Demographic Impact on Unemploy ment: Past Experience and Outlook for the Future,” in Demographic Trends and Full Employment, Special Report No. 12 o f the National Commission for Manpower Policy, December 1976. 3 “Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to 2050,” Bureau o f the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 704, July 1977. APPENDIX: General assumptions and methodology For each group, the average annual change in labor force participation was obtained by regress ing participation against time. Two different rates of change in participation were obtained for each group by fitting a regression line on the 20 annual observations for the 1958-77 period and by fitting a separate line on the observations for the 1970-77 period. For youths and women, the data for the 1970-77 period yielded generally higher rates of increase in participation than did the observations for the entire 1958—77 period. For adult men, the shorter period yielded generally greater rates of decline in participation than did the longer period. For most groups, the coefficients from the two regressions were then used to extrapolate two different participation trends into the future, with the 1977 participation rate for the group being used in all cases as the takeoff point. (In the projections published in 1976, the takeoff point was the average for the last three annual observa tions.) In some cases, however, as will be noted below, the coefficients were either increased or decreased judgmentally. Also, in nearly all cases, the amount of change in the extrapolated line (/*) In addition to the specific assumptions which were made for each of the scenarios, some general assumptions which apply to all the projections discussed above should also be pointed out. It was assumed, for example, that there will not be any substantial changes in the current definition of the “civilian labor force.”1 It was also assumed that there will not be any major wars or major social disorders which would radically alter either the demand for labor or the propensity to work. For the purposes of these projections, it was assumed that general demand would not depart significantly from the basic trends of the past two decades. Projecting the participation rates. Projections of labor force parti, ipation were made separately by sex and race for youths age 16 and 17, 18, and 19, and for adults grouped into 5-year age groups through age 74. In addition, for women age 20 to 44 labor force participation trends were projected separately for those expected to have young children and for those not expected to have any young children. 9 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990 was reduced exponentially according to the follow ing equation: r, = n - 1 - (/ - ri_i)/276 where i is the number of years since 1977, and 276 is the sum of the digits for the years covering the 1977-2000 period. The effect of this formula is to gradually reduce the rate of change to zero by the year 2000, but the tapering effect is almost insignificant during the first few years of the projection period. This method yielded two of the three extrapola tion lines needed to make three alternative projec tions for each group. A third line was needed and, depending on the course of two extrapolated lines, was placed either in the middle by computing a weighted average of the two lines or outside (and generally above) the two regression-derived lines. An outside placement was achieved by simply increasing or decreasing one of the coefficients or, as in the case of black men, by tracing a path that would bring their rate to eventual convergence with the rate for white men. For white youths age 16 to 24, for example, the extrapolation of the 1970-77 trend diverged very widely from the extrapolation based on the 1958— 77 trend. In this case, these two lines were used, respectively, for the high- and low-growth scenario and the line for the intermediate-growth scenario was obtained through a weighted combination of the other two lines: Interm ediate rate = high rate + ( 1 - # ) • low rate where b = 0.90, and / is the number of years since 1977. For most other groups, except for women age 20 to 44, the two regression derived lines did not diverge as much and generally were used to project the low and the intermediate-growth paths in participation trends, with their rate of change, again, being exponentially reduced and, in some cases, with the coefficients being changed judgmentally so as to produce what seemed to be more plausible future path. In these cases, the third projection line, used generally for the high-growth scenario, was obtained in various ways, as summa rized below: For white men age 25 to 29, the highest plausible path of their participation was assumed to be a line that increased at the same rate that it had declined over the 1958-77 period; for those age 30 to 45, the fastest increase was assumed to be half the rate of the long-term decline; and for those age 45 to 64, the highest plausible path assumed that the long term decline would simply stop, with the rates 10 remaining constant over the projection period. For men age 65 and older, participation under the high-growth assumptions was held constant until 1985, based on an assumed temporary effect o f the recent changes in retirement laws. After 1985, the rate was allowed to decline in a line parallel to the intermediate-growth path. For black men age 16 to 64, the high-growth lines represent the paths which their participation rates would have to trace if they are to reach parity with the projected rates for white men of comparable age by the year 2000. These paths were obtained through the following equations: r = [ln(blk lfpri977) - ln(w ht lfpr2ooo)]/23 and then using this equation to obtain the labor force rate in year i by: blk lfp n = blk lfpri977- e (rt> For women age 20 to 44, whose participation rates have been rising at an increasing pace during the 1970’s, the projections for the three scenarios were made as follows. The 1970-77 trend lines for each 5-year age group were extrapolated as the participation projections for the intermediategrowth scenario. The high-growth lines for these groups were obtained by simply increasing the coefficient derived from the short-term regression, assuming that, at least for the immediate future, participation for young and middle-age women could continue to rise at a very fast pace. However, an important constraint was applied to these extrapolations. In no case were the participation rates for women allowed to exceed the projected rates for men of comparable age. Where rates for women would have exceeded the rates for men before 1990 despite the application of the tapering formula described above, the rate of increase was reduced to zero (again, exponentially) by 1990. To the extent that there may be a negative relationship between the labor force rates of these women and their fertility rates, the assumption implicit in both the high and intermediate-growth paths was that fertility would remain at the relatively low levels of recent years. For the low-growth projections, on the other hand, it was assumed explicity that the fertility rate could rise significantly in the coming years, returning to the levels of the early 1960’s and, thus, slowing the rise in labor force participation among women. Specifically, it was assumed that fertility would follow the path in the Series I population projections made by the Bureau of the Census. To trace the path of labor force participation under these assumptions, the population of women age 20 to 44 was divided into two groups: those expected to have children under age 5; and those not expected to have any young children. The separate participation paths for these women were then projected on the basis of the trend in their participation rates as measured each March over the 1970-77 period. In this case, two constraints were applied: the rates for women in either of the two groups were not allowed to exceed the rates for men of comparable age; and the rates for women with children were not allowed to exceed those for women without children. As a final step, which can be rationalized by the fact that, as of mid-1978, there were no solid signs that the birth rate was about to rise significantly, the low-growth participation projections for these women were not allowed to diverge from the projected intermediate-growth rates for women of the same age until after 1980. Implicit in this last constraint is the assumption that the birth rate is not likely to rise much above current (1978) levels until after 1980. This describes the general methodology used in projecting the participation rates. Those who are interested in more specific detail should contact the authors of this report. 2.1 million personnel, one-tenth of whom would be women. For our purposes, it was assumed that these goals would be reached (from currently lower levels) by 1983, and that both the size and sex distribution of the Armed Forces would remain constant for the balance of the projection period. Accuracy o f population estimates. The Bureau of the Census’ population projections begin with the 1970 census. Additional steps include aging the popula tion and making the proper allowances both for the known and the projected course of births, deaths, and net migration. In the final analysis, the projected size of the population may differ from the actual “true” size both because of possible enumeration problems in the decennial census as well as because the actual course of births, mortality, and net migration may differ from the projected trends. With regard to the population estimates used in projecting the labor force until 1990, it is worth noting again that they cannot be directly affected by any changes in the birth rate during the projection period. Although changes in mortality rates would impact on these population estimates, they are likely to have little effect on the labor force, since they would tend to fall in the older population groups where participation in the labor force is very low. Of more importance in terms of the labor force projections are possible changes in the population estimates which might have to be made to reflect the findings of the 1980 Census or of the quinquen nial census scheduled for 1985. It is also possible that the population projections might eventually be revised to reflect a better knowledge of the net migration trends, particularly with regard to the inflows of the so-called “undocumented aliens.” Nevertheless, relative to the size of the total population of working age, these revisions are not likely to loom very large. □ Application o f participation projections. The process followed in applying the participation projections to the projected population estimates—thus gener ating the projected labor force levels—was as follows. For all groups, the projected rates of change in participation for each year of the projection period were applied to the previous year’s ratio of the total labor force, including the Armed Forces, to the total population as projected by the Bureau of the Census. This yielded the levels of total labor force, including Armed Forces. To translate these into a civilian labor force concept and to compute the civilian labor force participation rates, two other steps were necessary: removal of the institutional population from the total population; and removal of the Armed Forces both from the population and labor force projections. Removal of the institutional popula tion was accomplished by applying to the total population a series of constant ratios equal to those published by the Bureau of the Census with their most recent population estimates.2 The Armed Forces were subtracted both from the population and total labor force projections based on data supplied by the Defense Department, the long-term goals of which are for a total of about -------------- FOOTNOTES-------------1 The concepts and definitions used to measure employment and unemployment and, thus, the civilian labor force are currently being studied by the National Commission on Employment and Unemploy ment Statistics, which is scheduled to submit its recommendations to Congress in late 1979. 2 Bureau o f the Census, Current Population Reports, P-25, No. 643, table A-3. 11 The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth A moderately expanding economy, with a declining government role, is envisioned in B L S estimates fo r 1977 to 1990, which replace projections fo r 1975 to 1985 N orman C. Saunders How fast can the U.S. economy grow by 1990? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared two alternative projections spanning 1977 to 1990, replacing projections for 1975 to 1985.1 The base projection examines the potential for growth with a moderately expanding labor force, a relatively slow decline in inflation and unemployment, and moderate Government expenditures. The high employment projection assumes a much larger labor force and a heavy emphasis on job creation, which would lower the unemployment rate sig nificantly. By 1990, real gross national product (GNP) is expected to reach $2.1 trillion and civilian employ ment to total 114 million. In the base projection, the annual rate of increase in gross national product and several key components will begin to slow in the 1980’s: M ajor assumptions For both projections, inflation is expected to average 6.7 percent during 1977-80 but decelerate to 5.2 percent during 1980-90, a rate roughly comparable to the 1968-73 level of inflation. The following are the fiscal, demographic, and other major assumptions underlying the BLS economic growth model for the base projection.2 Fiscal policy. Personal taxes will be affected by a $ 16.0-billion personal income tax cut assumed for 1979, consistent with the Revenue Act of 1978. Further tax cuts are specified during the 1980’s to offset the impact of inflation on the effective Federal personal tax rate. The effective rate is projected to range between 10.5 percent and 11.0 percent of personal income between 1980 and 1990. The Federal tax rate on corporate profits is assumed to drop from 48.0 percent in 1978 to 46.0 percent in 1979 and to 45.0 percent in 1980 and thereafter. A version of the crude oil equalization tax is assumed to take effect in 1979, impacting indirect business taxes. The revenue from this tax is expected to reach a maximum of $17.0 billion in 1984 and then quickly drop to an insignificant amount by 1986 as the so-called ‘old oil’ is replaced with newer discoveries. Approximately 90.0 percent of this tax will be returned to the public via personal tax rebates. The remainder 1977-80 1980-85 1985-90 Gross national product . . . Personal income .................. . . . . Employed ............................. Unemployed ......................... . . . . 4.3 11.0 2.8 -5.7 3.6 9.8 1.9 -1.5 3.2 8.3 1.2 .2 The growth slowdown is due almost entirely to decelerating expansion of the labor force. Norman C. Saunders is an economist in the Office o f Economic Growth, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. 12 represents the administrative costs of the program. Contributions for social security programs are based primarily on the taxable wage base and the combined employer/employee tax rate. It is assumed that the increase mandated by the Social Security Act of 1977 will be in effect through 1980. Namely, the wage base will be $23,900 and the combined employer/employee tax rate will be 12.3 percent in 1980. After 1980, it has been assumed that future amendments to the 1977 act will be in effect. The wage base is expected to increase to $45,000 by 1990, an average annual rate of 6.6 percent between 1980 and 1990. The tax rate will increase to 13.6 percent by 1990, compared with the 15.6 percent currently mandated for that year. In regard to Federal expenditures, it is assumed that purchases of goods and services less compen sation will grow at about 7.5 percent annually between 1980 and 1985 and at 6.0 percent during the 1985-90 period. This amounts to about 1.8 percent real growth per year between 1980 and 1990. Federal civilian employment is expected to increase by just under 150,000 between 1980 and 1990 at an average annual increase of 0.7 percent. Federal transfer payments comprise: (1) unem ployment insurance benefits; (2) social security; (3) Federal civilian employee retirement; (4) railroad retirement; (5) veterans’ benefits; (6) hospital and supplementary medical insurance; (7) supplemen tal security income; and (8) all other Federal transfer payments. Projections for each category are based on expected inflation, changes in client populations, and some discretionary change which represents real changes in offered benefits. All eight categories are projected in terms of current services through 1983, that is, no real growth in programs is envisioned during the 1977—83 period. After 1983, discretionary rates of growth are set at 1:0 percent to 3.0 percent each year for the various programs through 1990. It should be noted that the assumed discretionary rates represent far lower rates of real growth in transfers than was experi enced in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. Grantsin-aid to States and localities are essentially unchanged in real terms throughout the projection period, as are subsidies to government enterprises. In addition to the above Federal budget assump tions, two general objectives were to achieve a relative balance between receipts and expenditures by the early 1980’s and to bring expenditures below the current 22.0 percent share of GNP. The following are the results of these assumptions: 1977 F ederal receipts .................. A s percent o f G N P ___ 374.4 19.8 1980 522.6 20.1 1985 812.4 19.9 Federal expenditures ___ As percent o f G N P ___ Federal deficit .................... As percent o f G NP ___ 422.6 22.4 -48.1 2.5 554.4 21.4 -31.7 1.2 832.9 20.4 -20.5 .5 1,191.2 19.8 -22.5 .4 It should be noted that the figures above represent the National Income measure of receipts, expendi tures, and the deficit. Demographic changes. The primary determinants of the demographic data are the level and age distribution of the population. Three projected population series have been developed by the Bureau of the Census, differing primarily in the assumed fertility rate.3 The Series II projections have been chosen for inclusion in the base forecasts. Projections of the number of households and the number of students have also been prepared by the Bureau of the Census.4 It has been assumed that recent urban population trends will continue throughout the projection period. Finally, the ‘moderate growth’ labor force projections developed by BLS were chosen for the base projections.5 Unemployment and productivity. The unemploy ment rate is viewed as a policy objective in the projections. Values are assigned to represent, first, a realistic recovery path from the 1975 recession and, second, after the recovery is complete, a stable long-run unemployment rate close to full employment. The assumea unemployment rates by year: 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .... .... .... .... .... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. 6.3 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 ..... ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 The largest declines occur in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. As the economy recovers from the recession and approaches full employment, the declines in the unemployment rate begin to taper off and a nearly constant rate is reached by 1985. The relatively small declines after 1985 reflect the changing age structure of the labor force, rather than any real decline in the rate itself. As long as the assumed rate remains relatively constant after 1985, the real rate of projected GNP growth will be unaffected during the 1985-90 period. For the private nonfarm sector, the long term average rate of growth of productivity was 2.6 percent between 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1973, the rate declined sharply to 1.9 percent annually and even further to 1.1 percent each year between 1973 and 1977. This shortfall in produc tivity growth has been attributed to many factors, including new workers’ inexperience and lack of education and increasing emphasis on non-pro duction oriented types of investment, such as 1990 1,168.8 19.4 13 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990 pollution control equipment.6 There has been a strong cyclical recovery of nonfarm productivity of almost 2.5 percent annually in the 1975-77 period. However, a considerable slowdown in productivity growth is assumed for the remainder of this decade—1.7 percent average growth from 1977 to 1980. Between 1980 and 1985, it has been assumed that there will be a relatively slow recovery in productivity on the order of 2.1 percent annual growth and between 1985 and 1990, 2.4 percent. The return to higher rates of growth is attributable to several factors, all of which are basically negations of those factors which caused the earlier slowdown in growth. Members of the post-World War II baby boom will become experienced workers during the 1980’s, and hence, more productive. The rapid growth in the levels of investment in environment and energy conserva tion equipment should slow in the early to mid1980’s, thus allowing a greater proportion of the investment dollar to be spent on more productive plant and equipment. It should be emphasized that even with this return to higher productivity, the economy will not return to the level of production it would have attained had productivity growth remained at the 1955-68 rate. Rather, it is estimated that the slowdown in productivity growth during the 1968— 77 period resulted in a loss of approximately $115 billion in real production. Prices and energy. The final major assumption deals with the inflation rate. The implicit price deflator for private GNP is expected to be well below the 7.6 percent rate of inflation experienced during the 1973-77 period. It is assumed to increase at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent between 1977 and 1980, slowing to 5.5 percent during 1980-85 and 4.4 percent during 1985-90. This compares to 2.1 percent between 1955 and 1968 and 4.7 percent between 1968 and 1973. While prices do not directly affect the determi nation of real GNP, they do enter into the projections in several important ways. First, wage rates and interest rates are influenced to a great extent by price changes. These affect consumption expenditures and residential investment. Second, prices impact on the Federal budget. They enter implicitly into the determ ination of various expenditure levels and, on the revenue side, they affect personal income tax because of the progres sive tax structure. The movement of prices in the future is quite uncertain. The price assumptions used in these projections are a judgment as to the relative strengths of the various factors which affect price determination. These are the assumptions which have the greatest impact on the projection results. Other assumptions include capital discard rates, motor fuel usage, and short and medium term Govern ment bond rates. In general, however, their impact is limited to relatively small areas. One area deserving of further comment, how ever, is energy and the effect of pending energyrelated legislation. It is assumed that the higher prices for energy will not act as a constraint on aggregate growth, nor will any energy program, with the exception of the crude oil equalization tax, have a discernible impact on the aggregate econo my. At the industry level, however, the mix of fuels used to meet energy needs is projected to change and thus affect employment requirements. For a discussion of energy assumptions at the industry level, see the article by Arthur Andreassen in this issue. Aggregate demand Gross national product consists of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential and residential fixed investment, business invento ry accumulations, net foreign trade, and govern ment purchases of goods and services. Total GNP and its various components are presented in table 1 in constant 1972 prices for selected years from 1955 to 1990. Under the base assumptions, total GNP is projected to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent annually between 1977 and 1980, slightly lower than the recovery growth rate of 5.3 percent annually from 1975 to 1977. The strongest growth is expected in purchases of producers’ durable equipment. This component of GNP is expected to increase by almost $21.0 billion in real terms during the remainder of this decade, an average rate of 7.0 percent. The other demand components of GNP are also expected to grow slightly above trend rates during this period. After 1980, the real rate of annual growth of output is expected to slow to a rate more representative of the long term historical growth pattern—3.6 percent from 1980 to 1985. The components of real GNP are also expected to return to their long-term growth rates. After 1985, the projected slowdown in population and labor force growth results in real GNP growth subsiding to 3.2 percent annually between 1985 and 1990. Consumption. Personal consumption expenditures have traditionally accounted for the largest share of final production. In 1955, personal consumption 14 made up about 60.0 percent of real GNP and has steadily increased its share to 64.4 percent in 1977. This trend is expected to continue, with consump tion making up almost 68.0 percent of final output by 1990. The expansion of personal consumption at a more rapid rate than total GNP is due primarily to two factors. First, the effective Federal and State tax rates on personal income are projected to decline from 14.1 percent in 1980 to 13.7 percent in 1990, reflecting the tax cuts. The declining tax rate yields a growth in real disposable personal income of 4.1 percent per year during the 1980-85 period and 3.7 percent annually between 1985 and 1990—in each case 0.5 percent higher than the total GNP rate of growth. In addition the savings rate is projected to decline from 7.7 percent in 1975 to 5.7 percent in 1980 and to 5.6 percent by 1990. The slow decline in the savings rate is consistent with a long period of steady growth and high employment levels and also reflects that 1975 represented a historically high savings rate, reflecting record interest rates and the effect of the recession on durable goods purchases. Here is the percent distribution of personal consumption among durable goods, nondurable goods, and services for several selected years: E xpenditures .................... D u rab les ...................... N o n d u rab les .............. Services ......................... 1955 1977 1980 1985 1990 100.0 13.2 46.9 39.9 100.0 16.1 38.5 45.4 100.0 16.6 38.1 45.3 100.0 17.5 36.8 45.7 100.0 18.4 35.4 46.2 billion below the 1973 level. This represented a 12.0 percent share of GNP, down from almost 17.0 percent in 1973. By 1977, however, investment had recovered to a great extent and accounted for 14.7 percent of GNP. Because of the anticipatory role played by investment, it is a key to determining the longrun growth potential of the economy. In essence, investment represents current commit ments to future growth and is an important source of productivity growth. All four categories of investment are projected to increase at a very rapid rate—much higher than the historical trend—during the 1975-80 period. The most dram atic recovery from the 1975 recession is expected to occur in the area of housing. Residential construction dropped by more than $20 billion between 1973 and 1975. The drop was due to the interplay of several factors, chiefly credit availability and the overall downturn in the economy. Mortgage rates have stabilized somewhat, incomes are catching up with price increases, and the residential market is expected to recover from the 1975 debacle. Most of the recovery has already taken place, in 1976 and 1977, and, as a result, residential investment is projected to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent annually between 1977 and 1980. Several factors will impact on residential invest ment during the 1980’s. Over the entire decade the rate of household formation is projected to decelerate rapidly, due primarily to projected slowdowns in population growth and to changes in the age structure of the population. The number of new households formed in 1960 was just under 1.5 million, approximately 1.6 million in 1970 and 2.1 million in 1977. Census projections, however, show new households of 1.6 million in 1980, 1.5 million in 1985, and 1.4 million in 1990. The other major factors affecting residential investment are the average real value of new housing units and the mix of new housing purchases among single family, multifamily, and mobile homes. Between 1980 and 1985, the rate of growth of residential investment is projected to be 6.0 percent per year. The slowdown in household formation will reduce the number of housing starts. However, the impact is more than offset by an expected increase in the average real value of new dwelling units as homes are expected to be made more energy-efficient. After 1985, it is expected that the average value of a new unit will have stabilized as the design features for energy efficiency become incorporated in all new structures. Also, the shift of people away from single-family homes to multifamily dwellings and mobile homes is expected to lower the average The trend since the mid-1950’s toward a slower rate of growth in nondurables as compared to durables and services expenditures is expected to continue through 1990. This trend reflects the expected response of nondurable purchases to increases in disposable income. Investment. Gross private domestic investment consists of ( 1) investment in residential structures; (2) purchases of nonresidential structures; (3) purchases of producers’ durable equipment; and (4) changes in inventories held by businesses. Historically, gross domestic investment has ac counted for 15.0 to 16.0 percent of GNP. At the same time, it is one of the most volatile elements of final output. This is because investment, more than any other component of GNP, represents the anticipations held by business for future profits and potential growth and, as such, tends to fluctuate rather sharply as those expectations change. In 1975, for example, domestic investment fell to a level of $143 billion in real terms, more than $60 15 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990 Table 1. Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990 [1 9 7 2 d o lla r s if i b illio n s ] Projected Actual Component Gross national p ro d u c t............................................. Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s........................................... Gross private dom estic investm ent ............................................... Nonresidential structures ........................... Producers’ durable equipment ........................... Residential investm ent ..................... Change in business inventories ................. Net exports ....................................................................................... Exports ................................................................. Im ports ....................... Government purchases Federal ....................................................... State and local ............................................. 1955 1968 1973 654.7 395.1 104.0 25.3 36.3 34.7 7.7 1,051.7 633.4 159.5 42.0 67.0 41.9 8.7 1,234.7 767.6 207.1 45.5 86.7 58.4 16.5 7.5 87.4 79.9 252.5 96.6 155.9 4.7 -.4 27.9 23.2 150.9 86.9 64.0 58.5 58.9 259.2 128.3 130.9 ntgn oiupK/yrnofii Bate 1977 1,332.8 857.7 196.4 40.0 91.0 56.5’ 8.9 9.5 98.2 88.7 269.2 101.6 167.6 1990 1905 1990 1900 1985 1990 1,511.2 966.5 233.0 45.7 111.4 58.3 17.6 15.9 117.0 101.1 295.8 105.2 190.5 1,803.3 1,184.4 286.0 52.4 132.8 78.0 22.9 20.6 139.3 118.7 312.3 111.8 200.5 2,112.8 1,428.7 331.0 65.0 161.0 82.4 22.7 26.6 173.1 146.5 326.5 117.8 208.7 1,526.4 969.8 232.3 45.0 109.6 58.8 18.9 14.5 115.6 101.1 309.9 109.8 200.1 1,853.1 1,203.7 290.3 52.8 133.1 79.5 24.9 20.2 145.1 124.9 338.9 117.8 221.1 2,196.2 1,462.7 342.8 67.3 165.5 84.6 25.3 27.9 188.6 160.7 362.8 122.4 240.4 100.0 67.6 15.7 3.1 7.6 3.9 1.1 1.3 8.2 6.9 15.5 5.6 9.9 100.0 63.5 15.2 2.9 7.2 3.9 1.2 .9 7.6 6.6 20.3 7.2 13.1 100.0 65.0 15.7 2.9 7.2 4.3 1.3 1.1 7.8 6.7 18.3 6.4 11.9 100.0 66.6 15.6 3.1 7.5 3.9 1.2 1.3 8.6 7.3 16.5 5.6 10.9 1977-80 1980-85 1985-00 4.0 4.4 4.6 3.3 4.0 6.2 5.7 6.9 4.7 4.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 3.5 4.0 3.4 5.0 4.5 1.3 .3 6.7 5.4 5.2 1.4 .8 1.7 *refccni --------- * J l.I .H in t if tn Qisimxraon Gross national p ro d u ct..................................................... Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s........................................... . Gross private domestic investm ent ..................... Nonresidential structures ....................................................... . Producers' durable equipment ................................................... Residential investm ent ................................. Change in business inventories . . Net exports ....................................................... Exports ............................. Im ports ............................. Government purchases........................... Federal ................................................................. State and local ........................................................................... 100.0 60.3 15.9 3.9 5.5 5.3 1.2 .7 4.3 3.5 23.0 13.3 9.8 100.0 60.2 15.2 4.0 6.4 4.0 .8 -.0 5.6 5.6 24.6 12.2 12.4 100.0 62.2 16.8 3.7 7.0 100.0 64.4 14.7 3.0 6.8 4.2 .7 .7 7.4 6.7 20.2 7.6 12.6 100.0 64.0 15.4 3.0 7.4 3.9 1.2 1.1 7.7 6.7 19.6 7.0 12.6 1955-68 1968-73 1973-77 1977-80 3.7 3.7 3.3 4.0 4.8 1.5 .9 3.3 3.9 5.4 1.6 5.3 6.8 13.7 1.9 2.8 -1.3 -3.2 1.2 -.8 -14.3 6.1 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.3 1.8 4.7 1.3 .6 7.1 6.5 20.4 7.8 12.6 100.0 65.7 15.9 2.9 7.4 4.3 1.3 1.1 7.7 6.6 17.3 6.2 11.1 Average annual rale of change Gross national p ro d u ct........................................................................... Personal consumption expenditures . . . Gross private dom estic investm ent ................................................. Nonresidential structures ......................... Producers' durable equipment . . Residential investm ent ................. Change in business inventories . . Net exports ................................................................... Exports ............................................................................................. Im ports ................................................................. Government purchases...................................................................... Federal ........................................................... State and local ............................................................................... (') (') 5.9 7.4 4.2 3.0 5.7 8.4 6.3 -.5 -5.5 3.6 'Not computable. 4.3 4.1 5.9 4.5 7.0 1.1 25.6 18.7 6.0 4.5 3.2 1.2 4.4 1980-85 1985-00 3.6 4.1 4.2 2.8 3.5 6.0 5.4 5.3 3.5 3.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 3.2 3.8 3.0 4.4 3.9 1.1 -.2 5.2 4.4 4.3 .9 1.1 .8 4.6 4.2 5.8 4.0 6.4 1.3 28.4 15.0 5.6 4.5 4.8 2.6 6.1 SOURCE: Actual data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: projected data, O ffice o f Economic Growth, BLS. real value of additions to the housing stock. Finally, the slowdown in household formation will be very noticeable between 1985 and 1990. The net effect of all the factors is to lower residential investment growth to 1.1 percent annually between 1985 and 1990. The two categories of nonresidential investment —plant and equipment—are expected to follow the same growth trend as that exhibited by residential investment through 1985. By 1980, they are both expected to experience strong recoveries from the 1975 recession: 4.3 percent real annual growth for plant construction and almost 8.0 percent for equipment purchases. However, the recovery from 1975 to 1977 has not been as strong as in the residential sector. Therefore, growth is still projected to be quite high—6.2 percent annually from 1977 to 1980. Again, as with residential structures, the growth of both nonresidential categories of fixed invest ment is expected to moderate to some extent between 1980 and 1985. In the case of structures, the slowdown is traditionally quite steep after a sustained period of high growth. Thus the slow down to 2.8 percent annual growth during 1980 to 1985 is reasonable after the earlier recovery period. From 1985 to 1990, however, plant investment is expected to return to the historical trend rate of 4.4 percent growth each year. Equipment purchases are expected to continue growing at approximately 3.8 percent annually during the 1980’s. This is somewhat slower than the long-term historical rate of growth, but still more than adequate to maintain equipment at well over 7.0 percent of GNP throughout the projection period. The impact of the nonresidential fixed invest ment projections on the stock of capital7 is shown in the following growth rates: 16 1955-68 1968-73 1973-77 1977-80 1980-85 1985-90 P rivate non residen tial c a p ita l sto c k P rivate nonfarm cap ita l sto c k 3.5 4.1 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.2 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. 1990—is somewhat lower than the overall GNP rate of growth. State and local purchases of goods and services are also expected to decline in terms of their real longrun share of G N P—11.1 percent in 1985 and about 9.9 percent in 1990. Historically, education purchases have grown at roughly the same rate as other State and local purchases. However, in the projection period, growth of education purchases is expected to slow markedly to an average rate of 2.2 percent annually between 1977 and 1980 and to undergo an absolute decline of -0.7 percent annually for the entire decade of the 1980’s. The reduction is due primarily to projected dropoffs in school enrollments. At the same time, however, the projected rate of growth of other purchases will also slow—2.0 percent annually between 1980 and 1985 and 1.7 percent each year, 1985-90. This reflects a departure from previous years; State and local governments steadily increased their share of GNP from 9.8 percent in 1955 to 12.6 percent in 1977. In summary, gross national product is expected to recover quite strongly from the 1975 recession. The economy will be particularly dependent on strong growth in the investment sector. After 1980, GNP growth is expected to slow somewhat as labor force growth begins to moderate. The most notable occurrence in the 1980’s will be the shift away from government spending and into the private sector, especially into personal consump tion. It is important to note that the change is dependent upon the fiscal assumptions discussed earlier and with other assumptions the results would be different. The 1975 recession slowed the growth of the capital stock considerably. However, it is projected to return to the historical rate by the latter part of the 1980’s. Foreign trade. Imports and exports have both continued to account for a larger share of GNP over time and this trend is projected to continue throughout the projection period. In current-dollar terms, the balance on the current and long-term capital account is assumed to be a policy variable with the long-term value of zero. Such a policy would maintain the current-dollar balance on goods and services at a relatively low positive level. In the past, as import and export prices have tended to move together both in terms of levels and rates, a zero current-dollar balance implied a zero constant-dollar balance. During the early 1970’s, average import prices grew at a much faster rate than did average export prices. The disparity was due primarily to much higher petroleum prices, although world inflation in general was higher than in the United States. It has been assumed that foreign prices will once again move at roughly the same pace as export prices during the projection period. However, it is also assumed that the level difference will never be made up. Therefore, as the United States strives to maintain a current-dollar balance of trade, the impact on constant dollar trade will be to show a generally more rapid rate of growth in exports relative to imports, thereby improving the balance of real trade over time. Income distribution National income, or that portion of GNP which reflects the earnings of labor, capital, and property, is projected to increase at a rate of 11.3 percent annually (in current prices) during 1977-80, by 10.0 percent during 1980—85, and by 8.3 percent during 1985-90. This compares to a rate of growth of national income between 1968 and 1973 of 8.3 percent and 9.2 percent annually in the 1973-77 period. National income will continue to account for approximately 82.0 percent of total production throughout the projection period. The income flows generated in these projections are presented in table 2 in the form of a national income accounts derivation of personal and disposable income from gross national product. Government. The Government portion of GNP is made up of purchases of goods and services and excludes all other Government expenditures. Since the high point of commitment in the Vietnam conflict, the government share of GNP has been dropping, primarily in the area of Federal demand. Federal purchases are expected to decline to 7.0 percent of real GNP by 1980 and to 5.6 percent by 1990. It is important to emphasize that this does not mean that Federal purchases are expected to decline in absolute terms. Rather, the expected rate of growth —1.0 percent annually between 1980 and 17 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990 Table 2. The derivation of personal income, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990 [C u rre n t d o lla r s in b illio n s ] Projected Actual Component Gross national p ro d u c t......................................................................... Less: Capital consumption a llo w an ce s....................................... C o rp o ra te ............................................. N o ncorporate............................................................................. Equals: Net national product ......................................... Less: Indirect business ta x e s ................................................................. Business transfer paym ents......................................................... S tatistical discrepancy ................................................................. Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises ....................... Equals: National in com e ............... Less: Corporate pro fits plus inventory valuation a dju stm e nt..................................... S ocial insurance contributions ......................... Plus: Transfer payments to persons ................................................. Net interest paid by government ............................................... Interest paid by consum ers....................................... Dividends ................... Business transfer payments . . . Equals: Personal income ......................................... 4............ Less: Personal taxes, F e d e ra l........................................................... Personal taxes, State and lo c a l................................................. Equals: Disposable personal income ....................................................... Less: Interest paid by consum ers......................................................... Personal transfers to fo re ig n e rs ................................................. Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s........................................... Equals: Personal s a v in g s ........................................................................... I U - L ----1------ » Base n»gn om pouyuioiii 1955 1968 1973 1977 1980 1905 1990 1900 1905 1990 399.2 868.3 1,306.3 1,887.3 2,596.0 4,092.4 6,011.2 2,623.5 4,207.7 6,246.2 35.3 19.5 15.8 73.8 44.4 29.4 117.6 71.8 45.8 196.2 121.9 74.3 281.3 169.4 111.9 422.4 254.0 168.4 615.1 373.0 242.1 281.2 189.4 111.8 422.3 253.4 168.9 618.2 374.6 243.6 363.9 794.6 1,188.6 1,691.0 2,314.7 3,670.0 5,396.1 2,342.3 3,785.5 5,626.9 32.2 1.2 2.5 78.8 3.4 -0.6 120.2 5.4 2.6 165.1 9.6 4.7 224.4 9.4 0.0 303.7 14.2 0.0 379.5 21.3 0.0 224.2 9.4 0.0 305.1 14.2 0.0 403.8 21.3 0.0 -0.0 1.3 3.9 2.8 3.9 5.4 6.7 3.9 5.4 6.7 328.0 714.3 1,064.4 1,514.4 2,064.2 3,357.5 5,002.0 2,112.5 3,471.6 5,209.6 44.6 85.8 48.1 99.1 91.5 143.2 140.3 180.3 217.3 306.2 341.9 461.5 502.9 179.3 221.4 316.5 359.5 487.2 536.9 10.3 1.2 56.5 9.5 13.3 21.9 3.4 113.5 11.5 20.2 27.8 5.4 199.2 17.1 28.6 43.7 9.6 267.9 28.0 41.0 54.5 9.4 431.3 41.2 64.9 81.3 14.2 654.0 44.9 96.7 125.6 21.3 267.9 30.7 41.5 54.9 9.4 431.3 52.3 66.9 83.7 14.2 654.0 57.5 100.0 129.7 21.3 308.8 685.2 1,052.4 1,529.0 2,093.1 3,347.8 4,986.1 2,121.2 3,449.4 5,154.1 31.4 3.9 79.6 17.4 114.6 36.1 169.4 56.6 214.0 82.0 348.1 120.1 515.0 167.4 .1 211.3 88.0 358.4 136.4 536.2 184.3 273.4 588.1 901.7 1,303.0 1,797.1 2,879.7 4,303.7 1,821.9 2,954.6 4,433.5 4.4 0.4 253.7 13.3 0.8 535.9 20.2 1.3 809.9 28.6 1.0 1,206.5 41.0 1.2 1,653.0 64.9 1.5 2,655.4 96.7 1.9 3,966.2 41.5 1.2 1,669.6 66.9 1.5 2,709.3 100.0 1.9 4,062.0 14.9 38.1 70.3 66.9 102.0 157.8 238.9 109.6 176.9 269.7 11.5 16.2 4.6 4.4 Average annual n it of change Gross national p ro d u c t............................................................... Less: Capital consumption a llo w an ce s................................................... C o rp o ra te ............................................. ........................................ N o ncorporate............................................................................... Equals: Net national product ....................... Less: Indirect business ta x e s ................................................................... Business transfer paym ents........................................................... S tatistical discrepancy ................................................................... Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises ............................................................... Equals: National in com e ......................................... Less: Corporate pro fits plus inventory valuation a d ju stm e nt..................................................................... S ocial insurance contributions ..................................................... Plus: Transfer payments to persons ..................................................... Net interest paid by government ..................... Interest paid by consum ers........................................................... Dividends ................................. Business transfer paym ents........................................................... Equals: Personal income ............................................................................. Less: Personal taxes, Federal ................................................................. Personal taxes, State and lo c a l................................................... Equals: Disposable personal in c o m e ................... Less: Interest paid by consum ers........................................................... Personal transfers to fo re ig n e rs ................................................... Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s............................................. Equals: Personal savings ................. 1955-68 1968-73 6.2 8.5 5.8 6.5 4.9 1977-90 1900-95 1905-90 1977-80 1900-05 1985-00 9.6 11.2 9.5 8.0 11.6 9.9 8.2 9.8 10.1 9.3 13.6 14.1 12.9 12.8 11.6 14.6 8.5 8.4 8.5 7.8 8.0 7.5 12.8 11.6 14.6 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.2 8.4 9.2 11.0 9.7 8.0 11.5 10.1 8.3 7.1 8.0 8.8 9.7 ( ') ( ') 8.3 15.7 16.5 10.8 -0.8 -98.7 6.2 8.6 .0 4.6 8.4 .0 10.8 -.8 -98.7 6.3 8.6 .0 5.8 8.4 .0 C) 23.8 -8.0 12.1 6.9 4.3 12.1 6.9 4.3 6.2 8.3 9.2 11.3 10.0 8.3 11.7 10.4 6.5 5.2 11.7 2.9 13.8 9.6 11.3 8.1 15.8 11.1 9.5 8.5 8.0 7.8 16.5 12.0 10.2 9.0 8.4 10.1 5.7 8.8 6.0 8.0 15.0 4.0 8.7 4.8 9.7 15.1 10.4 9.1 11.9 15.7 10.4 19.1 12.7 7.8 -.8 10.0 8.0 9.7 8.3 8.6 8.7 1.7 8.3 9.1 8.4 10.4 21.5 13.1 8.0 -.8 10.0 11.2 10.0 8.7 8.6 8.7 1.9 8.4 9.2 8.4 6.3 9.0 9.8 11.0 9.8 8.3 11.5 10.2 8.4 7.4 12.1 7.6 15.7 10.3 11.8 8.1 13.2 10.2 7.9 8.1 6.9 7.5 16.0 11.2 9.1 8.4 6.2 6.1 8.9 9.6 11.3 9.9 8.4 11.8 10.2 8.5 8.8 5.4 5.9 8.7 8.9 8.6 9.1 -6.4 10.5 12.7 6.5 11.1 9.7 5.5 9.9 8.3 4.4 8.4 13.1 6.5 11.4 10.0 5.5 10.2 8.4 4.4 8.4 7.5 13.1 -1.2 15.1 9.1 8.7 17.8 10.1 8.8 'Not computable. SOURCE: Actual data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: projected data, Office of Economic Growth, BLS. 1973-77 18 Real disposable personal income will continue to increase but at a declining rate: Period 1955-68 1968-73 1973-77 1977-80 1980-85 1985-90 Disposable income Per capita disposable income 3.8 4.2 2.0 4.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 3.2 1.3 3.3 3.1 2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. percent annually during this period—reflecting the large assumed declines in the unemployment rate over the remainder of the 1970’s. After 1980, however, the annual growth of jobs is projected to slow to a rate of 1.9 percent from 1980 to 1985 and to 1.2 percent between 1985 and 1990. The share of jobs between the public and private sector is an important determinant of the level of real supply GNP, for productivity in the public sector is conventionally assumed to be very nearly constant.8 Therefore, if public employment ac counted for larger shares of total employment, the associated growth in GNP would be reduced. Although Federal employment is expected to expand during the 1980’s, the rate of change (0.7 percent annually) is considerably less than the employment growth anticipated for the private sector. The decline in military force levels experi enced after the end of the Vietnam conflict is expected to taper off during the latter half of the 1970’s. The Armed Forces are projected to stabi lize at 2.1 million by 1980 and remain at that level thereafter. State and local government employment is also expected to grow less rapidly than total employ ment. In the latter half of the 1950’s and during all of the 1960’s, the growth in State and local employment was due in large part to very rapid growth in public education. Enrollment growth, however, is expected to moderate significantly during the 1980’s, leading to an annual growth in the number of education-related employees of only 0.3 percent during 1980-85 and to annual declines of -0.5 percent during 1985-90. The declines, though, will be somewhat offset by continued growth in noneducational programs and the administrative employment associated with these programs, although at a less rapid rate than in the past. As a result, private employment is expected to expand more rapidly than total employment from 1977 to 1980 and at about the same pace as total employment. Thus, the trend toward relatively more public employees and relatively fewer private workers is expected to be reversed, at least until 1990: This slowing in the growth of real disposable income is due primarily to slowing GNP growth, but is accentuated by a deceleration in the growth of projected Federal transfer programs. This will be slightly offset by declining effective tax rates. The net effect on per capita real disposable income will be an increase from $4,300 in 1977 to $4,700 in 1980, $5,500 in 1985, and $6,300 in 1990. The distribution of national income has under gone large historical shifts and is projected to undergo further changes in the future: 1955 National income (in percent) ........ Compensation ........ Private ...................... Government ___ Corporate ................ Other income ........ 1977 1980 1985 1990 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 71.7 76.2 76.4 76.6 61.3 62.5 63.2 63.7 10.4 13.7 13.3 12.7 13.6 9.5 8.6 9.1 14.7 14.4 15.0 14.5 100.0 77.6 65.2 12.4 9.2 13.1 Corporate income includes pre-tax profits, and the adjustments for change in inventory valuations. Other income includes profits of partnerships and proprietorships, interest, and rent. Between 1955 and 1977, the compensation share of national income increased markedly and the trend is expected to continue. The increase is due com pletely to the private sector, as growth in govern ment employment lags behind overall civilian job growth. Employment and hours The number of jobs, the average number of hours paid per job, and the level of real output per hour are among the key determinants of potential output in the economy. These factors are detailed in table 3. From 1955 to 1968', the number of jobs increased 1.6 percent annually or by about 1.1 million per year. A much higher growth was experienced during the 1968-73 period—2.1 per cent average annual growth or 1.7 million new jobs per year. The 1975 recession had the effect of reducing jobs growth to 1.4 percent annually over the 1973-77 period. Expected employment growth from 1977 to 1980, however, is much higher—2.8 1955 Total employment . P rivate............................. Government .................. Federal ....................... State and l o c a l ........ Education .............. Other ...................... 1977 1980 1985 1990 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 86.1 83.2 83.9 84.7 85.1 15.3 14.9 13.9 16.8 16.1 3.8 4.4 4.1 3.6 7.0 12.4 12.0 11.6 11.3 6.9 5.4 6.7 5.8 6.3 3.2 5.9 5.7 3.7 5.6 5.7 The declining public share of employment repre19 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990 Table 3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and groee national product, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990 [E m p lo y m e n t d a ta in th o u s a n d s ] Pro|tcM Component Total labor force (including m ilitary) ................................................. Unemployed ............................................... Employed (persons c o n c e p t)........................................................... Adjustm ent factor (persons to jobs) ............................................. Employment (jobs c o n c e p t)................................................................. General government ....................... Federal ..................................... M ilitary ....................... C ivilian ................................. State and local ............................. E d u ca tio n ................................................................................... N oneducation................................................. P riv a te ............................................................................... A griculture ................................................................. Nonagriculture ............................. Private average annual hours per job . . . . A griculture ........................................... Nonagriculture ................................................... Private GNP per hour (1972 d o lla rs )......................................... A griculture ........................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................... Total GNP (billions o f 1972 dollars) ......................... General government ................................. P riv a te ................................................................... A griculture ..................................................................................... Nonagriculture ..................................... U ljik mm w 1im m a u l mgn ofnpfojimni Base 1955 1968 1973 1977 1960 1985 1990 1990 1905 1990 68,072 2,853 65,219 3,416 68,657 9,520 4,779 3,049 1,730 4,741 2,180 2,561 59,137 6,424 52,713 2,126 2,473 2,083 4.54 1.84 4.93 654.7 84.3 570.2 29.2 541.2 82,272 2,817 79,455 4,364 83,864 14,521 5,670 3,535 2,135 8,851 4,798 4,053 69,343 3,663 65,680 2,001 2,354 1,981 6.63 3.41 6.85 1,051.8 131.7 920.1 29.4 890.7 91,040 4,305 86,735 4,557 91,292 15,185 4,354 2,326 2,028 10,831 5,916 4,915 76,107 3,206 72,901 1,961 2,290 1,943 7.34 4.40 7.49 1,235.0 138.9 1,096.1 32.3 1,063.8 99,534 6,855 92,679 3,501 96,180 16,143 4,253 2,133 2,120 11,890 6,491 5,399 80,037 2,922 77,115 1,918 2,306 1,903 7.72 5.11 7.84 1,332.6 147.1 1,185.5 34.4 1,151.1 106,099 5,721 100,378 3,973 104,351 16,755 4,241 2,069 2,152 12,514 6,579 5,935 87,596 2,974 84,622 1,900 2,235 1,888 8.15 5.73 8.25 1,511.2 154.3 1,356.9 38.1 1,318.8 115,041 5,309 109,732 4,708 114,440 17,547 4,315 2,069 2,226 13,232 6,679 6,553 96,893 2,922 93,971 1,867 2,180 1,858 9.07 6.67 9.16 1,803.3 162.8 1,640.6 42.5 1,598.0 121,456 5,371 116,065 5,119 121,204 18,066 4,389 2,069 2,300 13,677 6,513 7,164 103,138 2,634 100,504 1,839 2,126 1,832 10.24 8.08 10.31 2,112.8 169.4 1,943.4 45.3 1,698.2 107,554 5,801 101,753 4,060 105,833 17,941 4,241 2,069 2,152 13,700 6,579 7,121 87,892 2,974 84,918 1,900 2,235 1,888 617 571 6 26 1,526.4 162.8 1,363.7 37.9 1,325.7 119,095 4,680 114,415 5,212 119,627 19,994 4,315 2,089 2,226 15,679 6,679 9,000 99,633 2,922 96,711 1,868 2,180 1,859 8.98 6.65 9.07 1,853.1 180.3 1,672.8 42.4 1,630.5 127,692 5,024 122,668 5,732 128,400 19,902 4,389 2,089 2,300 15,513 6,513 9,000 108,498 2,634 105,864 1,840 2,126 1,833 10.08 8.07 10.14 2,196.2 182.6 2,013.6 45.2 1,968.4 1955-68 1968-73 1973-77 1.5 -.1 1.5 1.9 1.5 3.3 1.3 1.1 1.6 4.9 6.3 3.6 1.2 -4.2 1.7 -.5 -.4 -.4 3.0 4.9 2.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 .1 3.9 2.0 8.3 1.8 .7 1.7 .9 -5.1 -8.0 -1.0 4.1 4.3 3.9 1.9 -2.6 2.1 -.4 -.6 -.4 2.1 5.2 1.9 3.3 1.1 3.6 1.9 3.6 Average annual rale ol change Total labor force (including m ilitary) ....................... Unemployed ..................................................................................... Employed (persons c o n c e p t)............................................................. Adjustm ent factor (persons to jobs) ............................................... Employment (jobs c o n c e p t)................................................................... General government ........................................................................... Federal ............................................................. M ilitary . . . C ivilian ................... State and local ................... E d u ca tio n ..................................................................................... N oneducation........................................................... P riv a te ................................. A griculture ................................................... Nonagriculture ................................................................................. Private average annual hours per jo b ................................................. A griculture ....................................................... Nonagriculture ............................................ Private GNP per hour (1972 d o lla rs )......................... A griculture ................................................................................... Nonagriculture ............................... Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars) ................................................... General government ................... P riv a te ................................................................................................... A griculture ..................................................................................... . Nonagriculture ......................................................... SOURCE: Actual data on employment and labor force: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Actual GNP data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projected data: Office of 2.3 13.0 1.7 -6.4 1.3 1.5 -.6 -2.1 1.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 1.3 -2.3 1.4 -.6 .2 -.5 1.3 3.8 1.1 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.0 1990-65 1905-90 1977-60 1990-85 1985-90 2.1 -5.8 2.7 4.3 2.8 1.2 -.1 -.7 .5 1.7 .4 3.2 3.1 .6 3.1 -.3 -1.0 -.3 1.8 3.9 1.7 4.3 1.6 4.6 3.2 4.6 1.6 -1.5 1.8 3.5 1.9 .9 .3 0 .7 1.1 .3 2.0 2.0 -.4 2.1 -.3 -.5 -.3 2.2 3.1 2.1 3.6 1.1 3.9 2.2 3.9 1.1 .2 1.1 1.7 1.2 .6 .3 0 .7 .7 -.5 1.8 1.3 -2.1 1.4 -.3 -.5 -.3 2.5 3.8 2.4 3.2 .8 3.4 1.2 3.5 2.6 -5.4 3.2 5.2 3.2 3.6 -.1 -.7 .5 4.8 .4 9.7 3.2 .6 3.3 -.3 -1.0 -.3 1.9 3.8 1.8 4.6 3.4 4.8 3.4 4.8 2.1 -4.2 2.4 5.0 2.5 2.2 .3 0 .7 2.7 .3 4.8 2.5 -.4 2.6 -.3 -.5 -.3 1.9 3.1 1.9 4.0 2.1 4.2 2.3 4.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.4 -.1 .3 0 .7 -.2 -.5 0 1.7 -2.1 1.8 -.3 -.5 -.3 2.3 3.9 2.3 3.5 .3 3.8 1.3 3.8 Economic Growth, BLS sents the impact of demographic shifts, as well as the apparent desire for a smaller government role in the economy. employed in part-time positions, at a much higher rate than the male segment of the labor force. This contributed to the service sector effect which is projected to continue and will cut average weekly hours. Female labor force participation rates are also projected to grow at rather strong rates during the 1980’s. However, it is assumed that the disparity between part-time jobholding rates of males and females will diminish during the 1980’s; thus, the growth of female labor force participation will no longer have an appreciable impact on the average workweek. Women are expected to be increasingly employed in all sectors of the econo my. Hours. The decline in average weekly hours paid is projected to continue at approximately the long term historical rate. In the private nonfarm sector, the long-term decline in weekly hours has been influenced by two factors: the trend toward more service employees, which lowers average hours because many work short weeks or on a part-time basis, and the increase in female labor force participation, which started in the mid-1960’s. Many of the new female labor force entrants were 1977-60 20 base projection. State and local government purchases of goods and services grow at an appreciably more rapid rate than total GNP, reflecting jobs program expenditures. This, along with the somewhat higher rate of growth of Federal purchases of goods and services, implies a much larger share of GNP to government than in the base projection—16.5 percent in 1990 as opposed to 15.5 percent. In absolute terms, however, all components of real demand GNP are considerably higher in the high employment alternative than in the base projection. Finally, the high employment projection implies a somewhat less rapid growth in private nonfarm productivity during the 1980’s—1.9 percent each year between 1980 and 1985 and 2.3 percent for the 1985-90 period as opposed to 2.1 and 2.4 percent for the same periods in the base projection. The lower productivity is an assumed result of less experienced persons entering the labor force in response to an increase in the demand for labor. The high employment alternative Although the high employment alternative is based on the same population series as the base projection, the ‘high growth’ labor force series was chosen as the primary source of increased employ ment in the economy. It is assumed that the unemployment rate will drop rapidly from 5.5 percent in 1980 to 4.0 percent in 1984 and remain at that level thereafter. In the early 1980’s, it is assumed that most of the increase in available labor would be absorbed into the State and local sector of the economy, funded by increases in Federal grant programs. About 80.0 percent of the employment increases over the base projection are initially found in State job programs. The propor tion drops steadily to about 25.0 percent by 1990 as the private sector demand for labor picks up over the decade in response to increased demand for private goods and services. Here is a comparison of the major fiscal assumptions for the base and high employment projections: Federal grants Federal purchases 1980 Base ...................................... .......... High employment ............ .......... 90.1 107.4 182.3 190.4 1985 Base ...................................... .......... High employment ............ .......... 125.6 174.2 266.6 279.5 1990 Base ...................................... .......... High employment ............ .......... 176.4 222.8 369.6 380.3 h e f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n presents two views of the U.S. economy to 1990. The base case examines the result of a moderately expanding labor force and relatively lower levels of government expendi tures on the economy. In contrast, the high employment version studies the effect of very high labor force and employment growth on the economy. As noted, the growth of real GNP in the base projection is 3.6 percent each year between 1980 and 1985 and 3.2 percent for the 1985-90 period. The high employment projection yields rates of GNP growth of 4.0 percent and 3.5 percent for these same periods. These projections hinge on the underlying assumptions and even small chang es in the latter could effect significant changes in the projections. It should also be noted that these are longrun projections of the U.S. economy and no attempt has been made to forecast cyclical fluctuations. □ T All other fiscal policy levels remained unchanged from the base projection. The impact of increased employment is immedi ately apparent in terms of the real growth of aggregate production. High employment GNP is projected to increase 0.3 percent more rapidly each year than the base GNP, leading to approximately $83.0 billion more real output in 1990 than in the 1 The projections are part o f a BLS program o f studies aimed at Monthly Labor Review, March 1976, pp. 9-21; Thomas J. Mooney and John H. Tschetter, “Revised industry projections to 1985,” Monthly analyzing long-run economic growth. The primary objective is to Labor Review, November 1976, pp. 3-9; and Max L. Carey, “Revised develop projections o f employment requirements under alternative occupational projections to 1985,” Monthly Labor Review, November assumptions. Other articles in the series discuss industry final demand 1976, pp. \0-22. See also Valerie A. Personick and Robert A. (pp. 47-55) and industry projections o f output and employment. As Sylvester, “Evaluation o f BLS 1970 economic and employment part of a continuing program to assess the validity o f BLS projections, projections,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1976, pp. 13-26. future articles will examine the projections o f the U.S. economy for 1975 and compare the 1985 BLS projections, published in 1973 and 2 The BLS economic growth model is a software system comprised 1976, with the current 1985 projections. See Ronald E. Kutscher, o f a modified version o f the Thurow macroeconomic model, several “Revised BLS projections to 1980 and 1985: an overview,” Monthly demand submodels, and an input-output and industry level employ Labor Review, March 1976, pp. 3-8; Charles T. Bowman and Terry H. ment model. The original version o f the macroeconomic model is Morlan, “Revised projections o f the U.S. economy to 1980 and 1985,” described in Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model o f the United 21 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990 States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969. A detailed discussion projections to 1990: o f the remainder o f the economic growth model is currently being 6 A detailed discussion o f the productivity slowdown is contained in Kutscher, Mark, and Norsworthy, “The productivity slowdown and the outlook to 1985,!’ Monthly Labor Review, May 1977, pp. 3-8. prepared for publication. A preliminary unpublished discussion o f methodology and a complete description o f the operating system are available from the Office o f Economic Growth. 7 The underlying stock estimates in the projections are consistent with the gross stocks series presented in Fixed Nonresidential Business and Residential Capital in the United States, 1925-75, Bureau o f Economic Analysis, June 1976. 3 U.S. Bureau o f the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P25, No. 704. 4 Projections o f the number o f households are from U.S. Bureau o f 8 By National Income accounting conventions, it is assumed that there is no change over time in Government productivity. Rather, it is assumed that real output for a government employee is equal to that person’s compensation in the dollar base year (1972 in this case). Apparent changes in average real compensation reflect shifts in the grade-structure o f government employees over time. the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 607. School enrollment participation rates by age group are drawn from Current Population Reports, Series P-20, N o. 278. 5 The projections o f the U.S. labor force are fully detailed in the article by Howard N Fullerton and Paul O. Flaim, “Labor force three possible paths ,” in this issue. 22 Appendix. Supplem entary Tables Table A-1. Gross national product by major component, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990 [Current dollars in b i l l i o n s ] Projected Actual Ba se Hiqh employment Component 1968 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 1980 1985 1990 | 13 06 .3 | 18 87 .3 2596.0 A0 9 2 . A 6011.2 2623.5 A207.7 62A6.2 535.9 | 809.7 | 12 06 .5 16 5A.7 2658.7 3-989.1 16 59 .8 2703.6 A089.0 Gross Priv at e D o me st ic Investment. N o n r e s i d e n t i a l I n v e s t m e n t ........ Equi p m e n t .......................... S t r u c t u r e s ......................... in B u s i n e s s I n v e n t o r i e s . . 68. A 38.6 22.7 15.8 23 . 8 6.0 131.5 90.0 55.3 3A .7 33 . 8 7.7 | | | | | i 219.9 13 7. 3 90 .0 A7.2 6 A .7 17.9 | | j | | i A 17 .A 27 A .3 19A.5 79 .8 114.8 2 8 .3 668. A A 18.0 299.6 1 18. A 2 0 4. 0 A 6 .A 95 5. 6 630.5 AA9.2 181.3 269.4 55 .7 A 16 . 1 2 7 0. 1 191.5 78.6 115.7 30 .3 678.3 A 1 9.9 3 0 0. 6 11 9. 3 207.9 5 0 .5 989. A 6 5 0. 0 A62.2 187.9 277 . 1 62 . 2 Ne t E x p o r t s ............................. E x p o r t s ............................... I m p o r t s ............................... 20 .0 -17.8 2. 3 A 9 .9 -A7.7 | j I 7.1 101.6 -9A.A I -1 1. 1 j 175.5 | -186.5 - 2 .9 253.9 -256.8 1.6 395.5 -393.9 5. A 608.6 -6 03 . 1 -5. 1 251.6 -256.8 -1 .7 A 12.9 -A1A.7 2. 1 663.5 -66 1 .A 552.7 190.4 105.5 8A.9 362.3 155.6 206.7 827.5 279.5 153.6 125.9 5A8.1 20A.9 3A3.1 Change Consumption CM 868.3 253. 7 Personal CM 39 9. 2 Expenditures. Gross national p r o d u c t .................. 1955 297.8 192.1 133. A 58 .7 90 . 1 15.6 i G o v e r n m e n t .............................. 75.0 763.7 1061.1 198.7 I 2 6 9 . 5 526.8 39A.0 98.0 | 36 9. 6 AA .A 102.2 | 145 . 1 182.2 26 6. 6 G o o d s ............................... 58 .7 j 26 . 1 50.3 j 139.8 187.3 78.6 97 .5 C o m p e n s a t i o n ...................... 18. A 39 .3 | 5 1.9 | 66.A 8 A .8 12 6. 8 182.3 30.6 S t a t e a n d L o ca l P u r c h a s e s ........ 100.7 i 167. 3 | 2 A 8 . 9 3 A A. 6 A97 . 1 691.5 G o o d s ............................... 1A .7 AA.8 | 70.2 | 1 0 7. A 153.7 198.1 2A9.9 C o m o e n s a t i o n ...................... 15.8 55.9 j 97.1 I 1A 1.5 190.9 299.0 A A 1.6 SO UR C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e ; p r o j e c t e d data, O f f i c e o f E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , BLS. 11 65. 7 3 8 0. 3 200.3 180.0 785.5 3 0 1. 0 A8A.5 "Table A-2. Gross national product by major component, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990 [Average annual r a t e s of ch an c e , curr en t dollars] Projected Actual Base H oh emDlovment Component 1 9 68 -7 3 19 73 -7 7 19 77 -8 0 19 80 - 8 5 19 85 -9 0 1 9 77 -8 0 19 80 -8 5 19 85- 90 8. 2 6. 2 8. 5 9.6 11.2 9.5 8.0 11.6 9.9 Expenditures. 5. 9 Oo O" 19 55 -6 8 10.5 11.1 9.9 8.5 11.2 10.2 Gross P r iv at e Dome st ic Investment. N o n r e s i d e n t i a l I n v e s t m e n t ........ Equ i p m e n t .......................... S t r u c t u r e s ......................... R e s i d e n t i a l I n v e s t m e n t ............ C h a n g e in B u s i n e s s I n v e n t o r i e s . . 5. 2 6.7 7 .1 6.2 2.7 2.0 10.8 8. 8 10.2 6. A 13.8 18. A 7.9 8. 8 10.3 5.6 8.6 -3. A 11.9 12.6 13. A 10.8 8. A 22 .0 9.9 8. 8 9.0 8. 2 12.2 10. A 7 .A 8.6 8. A 8. 9 5.7 3.7 1 1.8 12.0 12.8 10.2 8. 7 2A.8 10.3 9.2 9. A 8. 7 12. A 10.8 7.8 9. 1 9.0 9.5 5. 9 A.3 I m p o r t s ............................... 0 .1 7.3 7.9 25 .9 15.3 1A .7 0.0 1A .7 18.5 -35.9 13.1 11.2 0 .0 9.3 8. 9 2 7 .3 9.0 8. 9 -22.6 12.8 11.2 -19.5 10 .A 10. 1 0.0 10.0 9.8 11.9 9.5 10.3 8.5 13.3 13.2 13.5 8. A 8.0 7.8 8.2 8.6 5.7 10.7 7. 1 6. A 5.5 7. A 7. 5 8. 0 7 .1 Gross national Personal p r o d u c t .................. Consumption 6.3 10.0 G o v e r n m e n t .............................. 7.8 0.8 9.2 F e d e r a l P u r c h a s e s .................. 6.3 6 .A -3. 1 1 1.8 G o o d s ............................... 5.7 6.0 6. A C o m p e n s a t i o n ...................... 9.6 10.7 10. A S t a t e a n d L o ca l P u r c h a s e s ........ 8. 9 9. A 11.2 G o o d s ............................... 10.2 11.7 C o m o e n s a t i o n ...................... ____ 2^2____ S O U R C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e ; p r o j e c t e d da ta , 23 7.7 6. 8 10.2 7.9 6.8 7.9 6.0 7. A 7. 5 8.5 8. A 7.5 7.6 6.8 11.5 12.7 5.2 A.8 9. A 10.5 8.1 O f f i c e of E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , BLS. 1 8.6 Table A-3. Government account, national income basis, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 3 , 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990 [Current dollars in b i l l i o n s ] ________ Projected Actual Component 1955 1968 1973 F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t R e c e i p t s ......... P e r s o n a l T a x e s ....................... C o r p o r a t e P r o f i t s T a x e s ............ I n d i r e c t B u s i n e s s T a x e s ............ S o c i a l I n s u r a n c e C o n t r i b u t i o n s . .. 72 .6 3 1 .«+ 21 .1 10.7 9. A 179.7 79 .6 36 .3 18.0 9 0 .8 258.3 119.6 93 .0 21.2 7 9.4 | I I | i | | i Federal Government Expenditures.... P u r c h a s e s o f G o o d s .................. C o m p e n s a t i o n .......................... T r a n s f e r P a y m e n t s ................... G r a n t s - i n-ai d ......................... Ne t I n t e r e s t P a i d .................... S u b s id ie s Less Current Surplus... 68.1 26. 1 18. A 19.5 3 .1 9.6 1.5 180.6 58 .7 39 .3 98. 1 18.6 11.9 9.5 265.0 50 . 3 5 1.9 9 5 .8 90 . 6 18.2 8.2 i | | | | | | 1977 1980 1985 1990 1980 1985 1990 379.9 169.9 6 1 .3 25.0 118.7 522.6 2 19.0 75 .9 39 . 8 19 3. 9 812.9 39 8. 1 117.3 92 .7 309.3 1 1 68 .8 5 1 5. 0 168.9 37.7 9 9 7. 1 5 2 1. 7 211.3 75 .0 39 .9 195.5 838.6 358.4 120.7 43.0 316.5 1228.1 536.2 177.4 38 .4 475.9 9 2 2. 6 78.6 66 .9 172.7 67 .9 29. 1 8. 3 559.9 97.5 89.8 231.6 90 . 1 90.9 9.5 832.9 139.8 126.8 37 1.6 125.6 56 .6 12.5 1 1 91 .2 187.3 182.3 565.5 176.9 69 .3 15.5 582.5 105.5 89.9 231.6 107.9 93 .6 9.5 9 0 5. 5 153.6 125.9 37 1.6 174.2 67.7 12.5 1 2 60 .8 200.3 180.0 565.5 222.8 76.9 15.5 ( - ) ......... 9.9 -5 .8 -6 . 7 ! -98. 1 -31.7 -20.5 -22.5 -60.8 -66.9 -32.8 S t a t e a n d L o ca l R e c e i p t s ............. P e r s o n a l T a x e s ....................... C o r p o r a t e P r o f i t s T a x e s ............ I n d i r e c t B u s i n e s s T a x e s ............ Social Insurance Contributions... F e d e r a l G r a n t s - i n - a i d .............. 31 .7 3.9 1.0 21 .6 2.1 3. 1 107. 2 17.9 3. 1 60 . 8 7.2 18.6 19 3. 5 36.1 5.7 99.0 12.1 4 0 .6 | | | | | | 296.2 56.6 10.5 190.0 21.7 67 .9 393.9 82 . 0 13.3 189.6 29.0 90. 1 563.7 120. 1 19.9 261.0 37.6 125.6 768.5 16 7. 9 27 . 2 391.8 55 .8 176.9 419.0 88.0 13.3 184.4 2 5 .9 107.4 635.2 136.4 19.4 262.2 43. 1 174.2 860.5 184.3 27 . 2 365.3 6 1.0 222.8 S t a t e a n d L o ca l E x p e n d i t u r e s ........ P u r c h a s e s of G o o d s . ................. C o m p e n s a t i o n .......................... T r a n s f e r P a y m e n t s ................... N e t I n t e r e s t P a i d . .................. Subsidies Less Current Surplus... 32 .9 19.7 15.8 3.8 0. 1 - 1 .5 106.9 99 . 8 55 . 9 10.6 -1 .2 -3 . 2 18 0. 5 70.2 97.1 20.3 -2 . 9 -4.4 | | | | | | 2 6 6. 6 107.9 191.5 29 .7 -6 .5 -5.6 371.3 153.7 190. 9 9 0 .2 -7.9 -5 .6 599.9 198.1 2 9 9. 0 69 . 8 -9 . 9 -7 .0 769.9 299.9 991.6 99.9 -13.3 -8 . 8 3 8 9. 0 155.6 206.7 40 . 2 -7 . 9 -5 .6 595.9 204.9 343. 1 64.8 -9 . 9 -7 .0 858.3 3 0 1. 0 484.5 94 .9 -13.3 -8.8 Federal s u r p l u s or d e f i c i t SS L s u r p l u s or d e f i c i t ( - ) .............. 0.3 13.0 I 29.6 22.6 18.8 S O U R C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e ; p r o j e c t e d da ta , O f f i c e of E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , 9 .1 BL S 30.0 39 .3 2. 2 Table A-4. Major exogenous assumptions, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 , 1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , and projected to 1 9 8 0 ,1 9 8 5 , and 1990 Pro Ac t u a l A s s u m p t i on ected - Base 1955 1968 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 U r b a n p o p u l a t i o n ............................................... S c h o o l e n r o l l m e n t ............................................. N u m b e r of h o u s e h o l d s .......................................... C i v i l i a n l a b o r f o r c e .......................................... 165.9 110.9 37 .4 4 7 .9 65.0 2 0 0. 7 145.5 57 .5 60 . 4 78.7 2 10.4 157.1 57 .7 6 8 .3 88 . 7 216.8 168.3 57 .6 75 .0 97.4 222.8 177.1 5 5 .5 79 . 4 104.0 234. 1 192.6 55 .0 87.2 113.0 245. 1 208.5 58 .0 94.3 119.4 U n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e ( p e r c e n t ) ................................ M i l i t a r y e m p l o y m e n t ( m i l l i o n s of p e r s o n s ) .............. F e d e r a l c i v i l i a n e m p l o y m e n t ................................ A g r i c u l t u r a l e m p l o y m e n t ...................................... P r i v a t e GN P d e f l a t o r ( 1 9 7 2 = 1 0 0 . 0 ) ......................... 4.4 3.0 1 .7 6.4 64 .0 3.6 3.5 2. 1 3.7 84. 1 4.9 2.3 2.0 3.2 105.6 7 .0 2. 1 2. 1 2.9 141.6 5.5 2. 1 2.2 3.0 17 1.0 4.7 2. 1 2.2 2.9 223.5 4.5 2. 1 2.3 2.6 277.2 F a r m e q u i p m e n t p u r c h a s e s ( b i l l i o n s of 1972 $ ) ......... F a r m s t r u c t u r e s p u r c h a s e s ................................... E q u i p m e n t d i s c a r d s ............................................ S t r u c t u r e s d i s c a r d s ........................................... R e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r e s d i s c a r d s ........................... 4.2 1 .3 19.9 12.1 5.9 5.6 1 .7 36 .6 15. 1 8.0 6.3 2.0 48 .4 18.2 9.9 7.0 2.0 5 6 .5 18.7 15.4 9.0 2. 2 66 .4 19.2 12.4 9.8 2.3 78 . 2 25 .6 15.4 11.2 2.6 99 .3 2 8 .3 20 .0 r a t e ............................... 2. 5 1.2 3.8 85.3 1.75 -0 .6 1.5 8.6 89.9 5. 34 2.6 2.0 11.3 90.0 7 . 04 5. 2 2. 3 12.2 90.7 5. 27 0.0 1.8 12.3 9 1.3 6. 57 0.0 1.3 13.4 9 1.8 5. 7 9 0.0 1.2 13.6 92.0 5. 86 3- 5 y e a r g o v e r n m e n t b o n d r a t e .............................. F e d e r a l q a s o l i n e t a x ( c e n t s p e r g a l l o n ) ................. M o t o r fu el u s a g e ( m i l l i o n s of g a l l o n s ) .................. F e d e r a l c o r p o r a t e p r o f i t s ta x r a t e ( p e r c e n t ) .......... E x p o r t s of g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ( b i l l i o n s of 1972 $)... 2.5 2.0 47 .7 52 .0 27.9 5.6 4.0 82.9 52 . 8 58 . 5 6.9 4.0 110.5 48.0 87.4 6.9 4.0 113.0 48 .0 98 .2 7.7 4.0 109.8 45 .0 117.0 6.8 4.0 106.8 45 .0 139.3 6. 5 4.0 110. 3 4 5 .0 173. 1 F e d e r a l p u r c h a s e s l e s s c o m p e n s a t i o n ...................... F e d e r a l t r a n s f e r p a y m e n t s ( b i l l i o n s of c u r r e n t $) .. .. F e d e r a l g r a n t s to S&L g o v e r n m e n t .......................... F e d e r a l s u b s i d i e s to e n t e r p r i s e s .......................... SS L c o r p o r a t e p r o f i t s t a x e s ................................ 4 1.0 14.5 3. 1 1.5 1.0 70 . 2 48. 1 18.6 4.5 3. 1 48 . 3 95 .9 40 .6 8.2 5.7 52 . 9 172.7 6 7 .4 8. 3 10.5 56.0 2 3 1. 6 90 . 1 9.5 13.3 6 1.5 371.6 125.6 12.5 19.4 66.5 565.5 176.4 15.5 27.2 3.8 0.1 -1 .5 10.6 - 1 .2 -3 .2 Ac t u a l 20 . 3 -2 . 9 -4 . 4 29 .7 - 6 .5 -5 .6 Unemployment insurance contribution 3 - m o n t h g o v e r n m e n t b i ll rate (percent)... 78 .7 88 . 7 65 .0 C i v i l i a n l a b o r f o r c e ( m i l l i o n s o f p e r s o n s ) ............. 4.9 4.4 3.6 U n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e ( p e r c e n t ) .................. .............. 70 . 2 48 . 3 4 1.0 F e d e r a l p u r c h a s e s l e s s c o m p e n s a t i o n ( b i l l i o n s of 72$) 3. 1 18.6 40 .6 F e d e r a l o r a n t s ( b i l l i o n s of c u r r e n t $ ) .................. S O U R C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t s of La bo r, C o m m e r c e , a n d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ; 24 40 . 2 -7 .9 -5.6 Projected - 64 . 8 94 .9 -9 . 9 -13.3 -7 .0 -8.8 Hiah employment 125.6 97 .4 105.5 117.0 4.0 7.0 5.5 4.0 52 . 9 60 .6 67 .6 7 1.1 174.2 222.8 67 . 4 107.4 p r o j e c t e d da ta , O f f i c e of E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , BLS. Industry output and employment: BLS projections to 1990 Productivity gains and strong investment and consumption will stimulate output; employment growth, led by services and trade, will ebb as the labor force expansion o f the 1970's decelerates V a l e r ie A. P e r s o n ic k Slower employment growth in most industries, a reversal of the trend toward a larger share of jobs in the public sector, and a return to more rapid productivity gains are some of the highlights of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest long-range projections of employment and output by industry. Among the 149 industries studied, 112 will experience output increases that will more than offset declines in unit labor requirements (or increases in productivity). For 17 industries, productivity gains will more than offset increases in output, causing employment in these sectors to decline during 1977-90. For three additional industries, productivity gains will be compounded by projected increases in the average workweek, causing employment to decline in these sectors. Seven sectors will experience employment declines because both output and unit labor requirements are expected to drop. This article is the fourth in a series that describes BLS projections to the year 1990.1 Two sets of employment projections for 1990 were prepared. The base forecast assumed a moderately expand ing labor force, a slow decline in inflation and unem ploym ent, and m oderate governm ent expenditures. The high employment alternative assumed a much larger labor force and a morethan-offsetting emphasis on job creation through government grants, which would lower the unem ployment rate significantly. All data in this article refer to the base case except for a separate section describing the results of the high employment alternative. Overview of the economy through 1990 Many factors influence the projections of em ployment by industry; among them are labor force characteristics, labor productivity, government revenue and expenditure policies, changes in consumer preferences, competition from foreign products, and changes in business purchasing and investment patterns. ^ Employment and productivity. Total civilian em ployment is projected to grow from 93.7 million jobs in 1977 to 118.6 million jobs in 1990, an average annual gain of 1.9 million new jobs. This increase represents a deceleration in the rate of job expansion over the previous two decades. Between 1959 and 1973, employment grew at the rate of 2.0 percent per year. During 1973-77, job growth slowed to 1.4 percent a year because of the recession. BLS projects the annual rate of growth to accelerate to 2.8 percent between 1977 and 1980, then to taper to 1.9 percent during 1980-85 and 1.2 percent between 1985 and 1990. Over the total projection period 1977-90, the rate of job growth will average 1.8 percent per year. The projected decline in the rate of job growth after 1980 will result primarily from a projected Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office o f Economic Growth, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. 25 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment slowdown in the rate of expansion of the labor enced or less educated (or both) than their adult male counterparts, and the reallocation of invest force. (See table 1.) Since the 1950’s, the growth ment toward pollution control and safety and rate of the labor force has been accelerating, health expenditures.3 These factors are not expect averaging 1.7 percent a year between 1959-68, 2.0 ed to play the same role in the next decade; in fact, percent between 1968-73, and 2.3 percent between the age composition of the labor force should serve 1973-77. However, the rate of labor force growth is to boost productivity growth in the future. Work projected to average 2.1 percent per year during ers born in the post-World-War-II baby boom are 1977-80, 1.6 percent during 1980-85, and 1.1 moving into the typically more experienced (hence, percent during 1985-90.2 This slowdown in the more productive) age groups. As a consequence of rate of growth will pervade almost all industries, this and other factors, productivity in the private with employment in many industries declining in nonfarm sector is projected to increase an average the late 1980’s. of 1.7 percent per year during 1977-80, 2.1 percent As the economy fully recovers from the 1975 per year during 1980-85, and 2.4 percent during recession, the unemployment rate is assumed to 1985-90. drop from its 7.0-percent 1977 level to 5.5 percent As a result, growth in real GNP is expected first in 1980. After 1980, the unemployment rate is to continue to rebound strongly from the 1975 assumed to decline even further, approaching full recession, then to taper to a rate consistent with employment, to 4.7 percent in 1985 and 4.5 percent the long-term trend. The growth rate will average in 1990. 3.6 percent annually in the first half of the 1980’s The trend of faster job growth for the public decade and 3.2 percent in the second half. sector is expected to reverse in the next decade. While the number of jobs was growing more Final demand. During the initial projection period, rapidly in government than in the private sector 1977-80, producers’ durable equipment is project throughout the past three decades, private sector ed to be one of the fastest-growing segments of job growth in the 1980’s is expected to outpace that GNP. (See table 2.) The sharp rise in this category of the public sector. This reversal mainly reflects a , of final demand reflects the assumption that projected decline in public school enrollment and, investment decisions delayed in the early and consequently, a lower demand for workers in State middle 1970’s will be undertaken. Growth is and local government education. expected to continue through 1990, as business Productivity in the private nonfarm sector is strives to use the most energy-efficient methods of projected to rise faster than it did during 1968-77, production. However, investment in new plants although the rate will not match that of 1955-68, will not follow the same path as investment in when private nonfarm productivity rose by 2.6 equipment: it is projected to grow faster than GNP percent each year. Some of the factors that have during 1977-80; slower than GNP during 1980-85, been suggested as causes for the post-1968 slow reflecting a traditional dropoff in purchases of down include the entry into the labor force of more structures following a period of sustained growth; women and youths, who typically are less experi then at about 4.4 percent annually—its long-term rate—after 1985. Personal consumption expenditures, particularly Table 1. Average annual rate of change In GNP and for durable goods and services, is projected to major determinants, actual and projected, selected periods 1959-90 _________ grow faster than overall GNP during the 1980’s, 1959-68 1968-73 1973-77 1977-60 1980-6S 1985-90 Category rising from 64.4 percent in 1977 to 67.6 percent in 1.1 1990. Assumed tax cuts over the period are 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 Total labor force (Including m ilitary) 2.8 1.8 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 C ivilian employed (p e rso n s)............... expected to free more disposable income for 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.8 C ivilian employed (jobs)1 ................... 1.9 consumers, thus resulting in a larger share of .7 1.1 3.2 2.2 1.5 4.5 Government (excluding m ilitary) . . 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.3 3.1 P riv a te ___ ■...................................... income devoted to consumption. The types of -4 -2.1 -4.4 -2.3 .6 Farm ............................................. -2.6 1.4 2.1 1.4 3.1 Nonfarm ....................................... 2.0 2.1 goods and services purchased also are expected to Private nonfarm average annual change as the age mix of the population changes. -.4 -.3 -.4 -.5 -.3 -.3 hours paid per job ........................... The population will be more heavily weighted with 1.1 1.7 3.0 1.8 .8 1.7 Private nonfarm tota l hours paid . . . people age 25 to 44 and with those over age 64. Private nonfarm GNP per hour 2.4 1.7 1.1 2.1 2.8 1.9 (1972 d o lla rs ).................................... The number of persons age 16 to 24 will actually 3.2 1.9 4.3 3.6 4.3 3.3 Total GNP (1972 d o lla rs )................... drop, while those age 45 to 64 and under 16 will 1.1 4.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 .8 Government com pensation............. 3.4 4.6 3.9 4.3 3.6 2.0 Private GNP ..................................... maintain their present levels. One impact of these 2.2 1.2 .5 1.9 1.6 3.2 Farm ............................................. demographic changes will be a higher level of 3.9 3.5 Nonfarm 4.5 2.0 4.6 3.6 'Employment on a jobs basis is a count ot jobs rather than persons holding jobs; a person holding output for medical care services, required for an more than one job could be counted more than once. older population. 26 Table 2. Distribution of GNP by major components, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 [Percent distribution in 1972 dollars] Com ponent* G row national p ro d u c t....................... Personal consumption expenditures Durables ....................................... N ondurables................................. Services ....................................... Gross private dom estic investment Nonreaidential structures ........... Producers’ durable equipm ent. . Residential structures ................. Change in business inventories Net exports ..................................... Exports ......................................... Im ports ......................................... Government p urcha ses................... Federal ......................................... D efense..................................... Nondefense ............................. State and local ........................... Education ................................. Health, welfare, and sanitation Safety ....................................... O th e r......................................... 1M 3 1967 1977 1980 1985 1990 100.0 60.4 7.3 26.8 26.2 15.0 3.7 5.2 5.1 .9 .9 5.1 -4.2 23.6 12.3 9.7 2.6 11.5 4.7 1.6 .9 4.3 100.0 59.9 7.9 25.8 26.2 15.1 4.1 6.3 3.6 1.2 .4 5.4 -5.0 24.6 12.4 9.8 2.6 12.2 5.2 1.8 .9 4.3 100.0 64.4 10.3 24.8 29.2 14.7 3.0 6.8 4.2 .7 .7 7.4 -6.7 20.2 7.6 5.0 2.7 12.6 5.3 2.5 .8 3.8 100.0 64.0 10.6 24.4 29.0 15.4 3.0 7.4 3.9 1.2 1.1 7.7 -6.7 19.6 7.0 4.9 2.1 12.6 5.0 3.0 1.0 3.6 100.0 65.7 11.5 24.2 30.0 15.9 2.9 7.4 4.3 1.3 1.1 7.7 -6.6 17.3 6.2 4.1 2.1 11.1 4.1 2.8 .9 3.3 100.0 67.6 12.4 23.9 31.3 15.7 3.1 7.6 3.9 1.1 1.3 8.2 -6.9 15.5 5.6 3.7 1.9 9.9 3.4 2.7 .8 3.0 In the government sector, purchases of goods and services for defense are projected to rise considerably slower than total GNP. State and local government purchases are projected to slow even more dramatically. The State and local slowdown primarily reflects declining school en rollment at all levels of education (with the exception of 2-year colleges), but the decrease will be pervasive across all State and local government functions. Even health and welfare purchases, which have been rising faster than GN P in the past and are expected to continue to do so until 1980, are projected to grow more slowly than GNP between 1980 and 1990. Energy. Regarding the energy situation in the 1980’s,4 it was assumed that coal and electricity will be more readily available than other energy sources and that their prices will rise less rapidly than prices of natural gas and oil. Supplies of natural gas are projected to decline over the next decade, except for a brief upturn in 1982, when Alaskan natural gas should become available. Domestic production of petroleum is expected to grow very slowly, as production in the lower 48 States declines. Because of increased imports, however, petroleum is projected to retain its share of total energy consumed. Output by industry Table 3 and chart 1 show the changing levels and composition of output that are expected to result from the projections of the aggregate economic variables, the industry distribution of demand, and the input-output structure of the U.S. economy.5 27 Communications the fastest growing sector. After full recovery from the 1974 recession, several long term trends in the distribution of output among major sectors are expected to resume. Most noticeable is a marked increase in the output share of the communications sector. This trend reflects the integral part technology and changes in demand play in contributing to economic growth. Since 1955, numerous innovations, such as elec tronic switching equipment, higher speed and greater capacity transmission systems, and auto mated equipment to handle both long- and shortdistance telephone services, have minimized the cost of communications, thereby leading to in creased demand. In addition, demand has been boosted by the computer and its ability to handle large volumes of data. These historical trends are projected to continue through the next decade, raising the share of output accounted for by the communications sector to 4.8 percent by 1990. Output growth projected for communications will average 6.4 percent a year between 1977 and 1990, compared with an average of 3,9 percent for all industries. Agriculture and construction shares decline. Farm output will continue to decline in importance through the next decade, reflecting slow growth in both food purchases and food exports. Because most of the population already enjoys an adequate diet, increases in purchases of food for consump tion at home are projected to rise only slightly faster than the population, but considerably slower than purchases of other commodities. This slow down will affect not only farm output but will also cause output of some manufactured food indus tries to show very little growth, particularly dairy products and bakery products. The declining share of construction output reflects, in part, a projected sharp slowdown in new highway construction. With the close of the peak years of the Interstate Highway Program in the late 1960’s, future expenditures for highways are assumed to be principally devoted to maintaining the existing system. Also contributing to the slow growth of construction output is the expected tapering of residential construction activity after 1985. Housing construction is projected to grow more slowly than GNP in the latter part of the decade because of a slowdown in the rate of new household formation, the result of changes in the age distribution of the population. Manufacturing share steady. Output of nondurable goods is projected to grow more slowly than total output over the years 1980-90, while durable goods M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment Table 3. Gross product originating1 by major sector, actual and projected, eelected years 1959-90 [Levels in billions of 1972 dollars] Level Industry M cto r Total p riv a te ........................................ A griculture ...................................... Nonagriculture ................................. Mining ........................................... Contract co n stru ctio n ................. Manufacturing ............................. Durable g o o d s ......................... Nondurable g o o d s................... Transportation, communications, and public u tilitie s ..................... Transportation ......................... Communication ....................... Public u tilitie s ........................... Wholesale and retail trade . . . . W holesale................................. R e ta il......................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate ................................. O ther services2 ........................... Government enterprises ............. Rest o f the w orld and statistica l difference ................. A v trtQ t annual raia of chanty# 1959 1961 1973 1977 1990 1995 1990 628.6 28.2 600.4 14.2 45.5 170.7 100.7 70.0 920.1 29.4 690.7 18.1 62.5 268.4 165.5 102.9 1096.0 32.3 1063.7 19.2 58.3 313.0 189.0 124.0 1185.5 34.4 1151.1 19.9 56.9 322.4 190.9 131.5 1,356.9 38.1 1,318.8 23.6 64.9 366.5 226.1 140.4 1,640.6 42.5 1,598.1 26.3 74.9 439.7 273.8 165.9 1,943.4 45.3 1,898.1 28.8 81.9 518.5 325.2 193.3 4.3 .5 4.5 2.7 3.6 5.2 5.7 4.4 55.8 30.3 11.5 14.0 115.8 42.3 73.5 88.2 43.5 21.2 23.5 170.6 68.1 102.5 112.6 50.6 32.0 30.0 212.0 88.8 123.2 124.0 51.9 42.0 30.1 227.9 96.1 131.8 147.7 64.1 50.3 33.3 264.5 114.5 150.0 186.9 76.5 68.9 41.5 319.0 134.7 184.3 234.9 90.9 94.0 50.0 377.2 156.2 221.0 96.1 62.8 11.8 142.9 119.3 16.4 171.1 146.6 18.4 204.0 162.9 18.5 235.5 180.4 23.9 289.3 219.4 28.1 5.7 4.3 12.5 14.6 11.8 14.5 1959-01 1960-73 1973-77 1977-10 1960-16 1906-00 3.6 1.9 3.6 1.2 -1.4 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.0 1.6 2.0 .9 -.6 .7 .3 1.5 4.6 3.5 4.6 5.9 4.5 4.4 5.8 2.2 3.9 2.2 3.9 2.2 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.4 1.3 3.5 1.8 1.8 3.4 3.5 3.1 5.2 4.1 7.0 5.9 4.4 5.4 3.8 5.0 3.1 8.6 5.0 4.4 5.5 3.7 2.4 .6 7.0 .1 1.8 2.0 1.7 6.0 7.3 6.2 3.4 5.1 6.0 4.4 4.6 3.6 6.5 4.5 3.8 3.3 4.2 4.7 3.5 6.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.7 348.6 264.7 32.3 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.7 4.2 2.3 4.5 2.7 .1 4.9 3.5 6.9 4.2 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.8 2.8 11.2 -3.1 23.8 4.0 -6.9 4.2 -5.0 'Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry after costs of materials and secondary products made in other industries have been subtracted from total output, includes private households. output should grow slightly faster. These trends reflect not only the investment forecast and its impact on durable goods but also (1) a projected shift in the composition of personal consumption expenditures away from nondurables toward dura ble goods and (2) a higher share of total GNP accounted for by exports of capital goods. How ever, the growth in output from durable goods industries is not projected to be as high as it could be, given these trends in investment, personal consumption, and exports, because of several offsetting expectations: imports are projected to be composed to a greater extent of capital goods rather than raw materials, and the slow growth of defense purchases will pinch output for several durable goods industries. J Aircraft manufacturing will be the industry most affected by the defense slowdown. Cutbacks in purchases of military aircraft will offset projected high levels of civilian aircraft purchases, causing output of the aircraft industry to grow only modestly in the 1980’s. Civilian aircraft purchases are expected to rise substantially over the next decade, as commercial airlines (both domestic and foreign) continue to replace or significantly modify their present fleet of jets because of age, noise, and energy-efficiency problems. Projected output of the shipbuilding industry also reflects the slowdown in defense expenditures. High levels of investment in offshore drilling equipment are expected, but a drop in defense demand will offset this growth. The following tabulation shows the average annual rate of change in output, 1977-90, for the fastest growing industries, the most rapidly declin ing, and those which are energy related: In dustry A vera g e annual ra te o f output change Fastest growing: Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts ........ Floor coverings ........................................ Electronic components ........................... Synthetic fib e r s.......................................... Radio and television receiving sets . . . 9.3 9.1 8.3 7.8 7.3 Most rapidly declining: Private households ................................... Wooden containers ................................... Structural clay products ......................... Gas utilities ................................................ Leather tanning and industrial leather -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 -1.0 -.8 Energy and related sectors: Coal m in in g ................................................ Crude petroleum and natural gas ___ Oil and gas well drilling and exploration ................................................ Petroleum refining and related p rod u cts...................................................... Electric utilities ........................................ Gas utilities ................................................ 4.5 1.7 2.6 .3 6.0 -1.0 The five most rapidly growing industries are all in the manufacturing sector; output in these indus tries is projected to expand by 7 to 9 percent a year between 1977 and 1990, compared to 3.9 percent annually for all industries. Services on the rise. The services sector of the economy is projected to grow somewhat faster than the total economy during 1980-90, reflecting a number of trends. The shift within personal consumption expenditures from goods to services, particularly medical services, is one such trend. 28 Doctors’ and dentists’ services are projected to grow 5.5 percent a year between 1977 and 1990; hospital growth is projected at 5.7 percent a year. Another industry in the service sector showing rapid growth will be miscellaneous business serv ices. The projected annual increase of 5.6 percent in this area reflects the rising demand by firms to contract for a wide variety of services rather than perform these functions in-house. Examples are computer data processing, temporary secretarial or clerical help, cleaning services, and protective services. Finance, insurance, and real estate output will rise slightly as a share of total output in the 1980’s, following a sharp rise between 1973 and 1977. The demand for finance and insurance is largely centered in business activity rather than consumer activity, thus the recent increase can be explained by the recovery of business investment. Because investment is projected to be strong through 1990, the share of output accounted for by this sector will move up slightly through the next decade. Also contributing to the rise will be an increased demand for consumer credit services. Chart 1. Gross product originating in the total private economy, by major sector, selected years 1959-77, and projections to 1980, 1985, and 1990 Percent distribution Percent 100 r- 90 —O th e r1 - —Services 80 Finance, insurance, and real estate 70 60 — Trade 50 Transportation, —communication, and public utilities 40 30 20 — Manufacturing 10 — Construction — Agriculture 1959 ' 1968 1973 1977 1980 1 Includes mining, government enterprises, and rest of the world industry plus statistical discrepancy. 29 1985 1990 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment Table 4. Employment by Industry, actual and projected, selected years 1968-90 [In th o u s a n d s ] Actual Industry Bata c u t 1968 1977 1990 1985 Total p riv a te .................................................................................................................................................. 67,990 78,526 85,893 94,986 A griculture: Dairy and poultry products ........................................................................................................................... Meat animals and liv e s to c k ........................................................................................................................... Cotton .............................................................................................................................................................. Food and feed g ra in s ........................................................................._.......................................................... Other agricultural products ........................................................................................................................... 891 794 178 669 1,131 531 548 147 664 1,032 493 585 172 734 991 Mining: Iron and ferroalloy ores mining ................................................................................................................... Copper ore mining ......................................................................................................................................... Other nonferrous ore mining ......................................................................................................................... Coal mining ..................................................................................................................................................... Crude petroleum and natural gas ............................................................................................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying ......................................................................................................... Chemical and fertilize r m ineral m in in g ......................................................................................................... O il and gas well drilling and exploration ................................................................................................... 28 28 26 145 164 97 19 127 26 35 29 233 195 97 22 230 Construction: New residential building construction ......................................................................................................... New nonresidential building construction ................................................................................................... New public u tility construction ..................................................................................................................... New highway co n stru ctio n ............................................................................................................................. A ll other new construction ........................................................................................................................... Maintenance and repair co nstru ctio n ........................................................................................................... 1,185 964 436 272 205 886 1,302 1,070 584 213 254 1,249 Manufacturing: Durables Ordnance ........................................................................................................................................................ Complete guided m issile s............................................................................................................................... L o g g in g ........................................................................................ .................................................................... Sawmilis and planing m ills ............................................................................................................................. M illwork, plywood, and other wood products ........................................................................................... Wooden containers ........................................................................................................................................ Household fu rn itu re ......................................................................................................................................... Other furniture and fix tu re s .......................................................................................................................... G la s s ................................................................................................................................................................ Cement and concrete products ................................................................................................................... 188 150 125 253 252 37 336 143 175 221 74 81 128 241 331 21 374 146 192 235 S tructural clay p ro d u cts................................................................................................................................. Pottery and related products ...................................................................................................................... Miscellaneous stone and clay products ..................................................................................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u cts..................................................................................................... Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s ......................................................................................................... Primary copper and copper products ............................................................ ............................................ Prim ary aluminum and aluminum products ................................................................................................. Other primary nonferrous products ............................................................................................................. Metal containers ............................................................................................................................................ Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures ................................................................................................... 69 43 137 636 300 145 144 93 80 82 Fabricated structural metal .......................................................................................................................... Screw machine products .............................................................................................................................. Metal stam pings.............................................................................................................................................. Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware ................................................................................................. O ther fabricated metal p ro d u cts.................................................................................................................. Engines, turbines, and generators ............................................................................................................... Farm m achinery.............................................................................................................................................. Construction, mining, and o ilfie ld machinery ............................................................................................. M aterial handling equipment ........................................................................................................................ Metal working m achines................................................................................................................................. 412 117 252 163 302 110 143 192 89 342 Special industry machinery .......................................................................................................................... General industrial machinery ........................................................................................................................ Machine shop products ................................................................................................................................ Computers and peripheral equipment ........................................................................... Typewriters and other o ffice equipment ..................................................................... Service industry machines ............................................................................................................................ E lectric transmission equipment ...................................................................... E lectrical industrial apparatus ...................................................................................................................... Household a pp lia n ces.................................................................................................................................... E lectric lighting and w iring .......................................................................................................................... nign em ploym ent alternative 1990 1900 1985 101,108 86,179 97,660 106,339 457 573 169 747 976 427 494 155 687 871 495 587 173 727 992 456 571 171 748 975 424 491 158 689 871 36 47 31 268 248 102 15 255 32 53 31 311 234 103 14 277 27 57 29 354 210 97 14 285 36 47 32 269 250 103 15 256 33 55 31 318 239 106 15 285 28 60 30 370 217 103 14 300 1,428 1,217 639 229 227 1,347 1,618 1,316 722 224 230 1,447 1,607 1,419 809 211 220 1,482 1,433 1,218 638 230 228 1,360 1,661 1,351 739 232 235 1,496 1,681 1,505 852 225 230 1,572 75 95 120 226 337 18 413 165' 205 252 71 91 119 218 397 16 466 175 221 269 67 66 117 199 438 14 502 184 225 267 76 97 120 227 339 19 415 165 206 253 73 95 122 224 410 17 483 179 228 278 70 90 121 209 463 15 530 195 238 283 56 41 138 544 290 140 145 87 74 75 45 42 145 593 323 165 153 97 82 76 43a 43 154 590 348 176 166 103 88 80 38 42 156 553 355 177 171 102 89 77 46 42 146 596 324 166 154 98 83 77 44 44 160 610 360 182 172 106 91 83 40 44 165 586 378 188 181 108 94 82 468 113 242 177 323 628 124 297 220 374 147 252 97 329 541 119 279 199 344 130 165 247 116 371 177 296 129 414 693 122 301 229 387 145 182 334 138 436 543 120 280 200 345 131 164 247 115 371 649 128 307 227 386 145 182 305 133 427 738 129 319 243 409 154 193 356 146 462 199 282 245 202 49 136 205 213 179 201 179 298 298 279 43 174 205 224 178 207 206 333 320 322 49 207 236 247 193 246 222 370 357 400 48 239 260 275 210 280 230 391 380 479 45 261 276 291 215 301 206 333 322 322 50 208 237 248 193 247 230 382 368 413 50 246 269 284 216 290 245 414 401 509 48 277 292 308 226 319 Radio and television receiving sets ............................................................................................................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus .......................................................................................................... Radio and communication equipment ........................................................................................................ E lectronic com ponents................................................................................................................................... Miscellaneous electrical p ro d u c ts ................................................................................................................ M otor vehicles ................................................................................................................................................ A ircraft ............................................................................................................................................................ Ship and boat building and re p a ir........................... ................................................................................... Railroad e quipm ent........................................................................................................................................ M otorcycles, bicycles, and parts ................................................................................................................ 153 132 390 381 124 876 852 186 47 18 134 145 294 391 163 893 479 231 46 26 135 184 322 463 166 1,006 571 247 55 35 140 204 317 541 177 1,108 554 255 61 37 137 219 307 607 177 1,156 519 261 65 39 136 184 324 464 167 1,014 573 249 55 35 143 210 328 558 182 1,146 574 265 63 38 141 231 321 640 187 1,227 547 276 68 40 Other transportation equipment .................................................................................................................. S cientific and controlling instrum ents.......................................................................................................... M edical and dental instruments .................................................................................................................. O ptical and ophthalm ic equipm ent............................................................................................................... Photographic equipment and s u p p lie s......................................................................................................... Watches, clocks, and clock operated d e vice s...................................................................................... Jewelry and silverware .................................................................................................................................. M usical instruments and sporting g o o d s..................................................................................................... O ther miscellaneous manufactured products ............................................................................................. 72 197 74 52 107 37 79 148 225 137 185 116 70 130 32 83 146 209 152 196 129 89 151 35 92 173 229 232 203 154 92 171 38 98 191 228 307 201 176 91 186 39 99 199 215 153 196 129 90 151 35 92 173 231 239 210 159 95 177 39 101 197 236 326 213 189 96 198 40 104 209 228 30 115 141 1990 Table 4. Continued—Employment by Industry, actual and projected, selected years 1968-90 [In thousands] A ctual Industry ■»« -*- ------- ■- H im . i l l .. n i g n w n p t u y i i w it i a iW n a u Y V Base case 1980 1985 366 142 370 156 213 34 87 81 165 181 371 172 343 148 241 36 90 86 146 172 394 154 371 158 235 36 91 84 161 185 385 149 389 164 223 36 91 84 174 191 66 545 88 86 315 1,291 223 513 253 486 60 541 104 87 337 1,330 241 532 270 492 71 544 75 83 302 1,226 207 492 234 465 68 563 91 89 326 1,334 230 530 261 500 63 572 110 92 356 1,403 255 565 286 519 235 567 341 58 105 96 125 177 131 77 242 577 366 58 113 103 150 197 148 87 246 577 398 58 120 110 184 224 168 93 236 570 342 58 105 96 125 177 131 78 250 596 379 60 117 104 155 203 153 90 260 615 423 62 127 114 195 241 178 99 209 124 175 380 25 241 190 129 184 398 22 243 184 141 192 431 19 228 180 153 197 471 16 203 191 130 185 400 22 244 187 145 198 442 20 233 184 162 209 494 17 208 662 311 1,179 241 329 19 99 539 297 1,290 198 380 17 155 557 304 1,446 198 397 17 178 514 316 1,552 193 464 17 213 450 323 1,587 192 511 17 252 559 306 1,452 199 399 17 179 532 325 1,600 196 480 18 220 479 340 1,675 196 543 19 268 Communications: Communications, except radio and television................................................................................... Radio and television broadcasting ................................................................................................... 893 124 1,041 162 1,126 178 1,173 217 1,221 252 1,132 179 1,178 225 1,260 267 Public utilities: Electric utilities ................................................................................................................................ Gas utilities ................................................................................................................................ Water and sanitary services ............................................................................................................ 371 219 74 434 214 111 477 209 123 515 196 145 522 168 163 477 210 123 529 202 149 551 178 170 4,118 12,211 4,991 15,917 5,511 17,840 5,834 20,073 5,888 21,482 5,522 17,881 6,004 20,632 6,200 22,520 916 605 1,367 784 1,342 790 1,687 1,069 1,426 895 1,811 1,181 1,764 1,048 2,004 1,297 2,054 1,167 2,117 1,358 1,434 900 1,812 1,182 1,829 1,084 2,062 1,331 2,200 1,237 2,227 1,425 Services: Hotels and lodging places................................................................................................................ Personal and repair services............................................................................................................ Barber and beauty shops .............................................................................................................. Miscellaneous business services....................................................................................................... Advertising ....................................................................................................................... Miscellaneous professional services ................................................................................................. Automobile repair ....................................................................................................................... Motion pictures ....................................................................................................................... Amusements and recreation services.............................................................................................. . Doctors' and dentists' services........................................................................................................ 819 1,319 429 1,428 192 994 764 196 516 746 1,185 1,231 389 2,341 215 1,548 935 206 700 1,275 1,326 1,263 429 2,788 216 1,646 1,028 223 822 1,411 1,565 1,270 460 3,585 221 1,932 1,099 236 932 1,656 1,747 1,244 475 4,385 219 2,174 1,137 239 1,010 1,882 1,332 1,268 431 2,803 216 1,651 1,032 225 822 1,417 1,618 1,292 470 3,705 226 1,982 1,122 248 952 1,695 1,854 1,281 493 4,663 228 2,283 1,178 258 1,050 1,968 Hospitals ....................................................................................................... Other medical services .................................................................................................. Educational services ..................................................................................................................... Nonprofit organizations .................................................................................................................... Forestry and fishery products ........................................................................................................... Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ....................................................................................... Private households ........................................................................................................................... 1,751 506 1,176 1,704 30 178 2,437 2,604 1,254 1,430 2,064 41 256 1,913 2,935 1,603 1,538 2,301 41 290 1,602 3,642 2,228 1,709 2,543 45 334 1,447 4,307 3,055 1,785 2,673 46 366 1,307 2,950 1,612 1,556 2,309 40 292 1,602 3,785 2,283 1,769 2,617 44 345 1,446 4,634 3,191 1,890 2,810 45 387 1,306 1969 1977 1980 1985 Nondurable Meat products .................................................................................................................................. Dairy products .................................................................................................................................. Canned and frozen foods ................................................................................................................ Grain mill products ........................................................................................................................... Bakery products .............................................................................................................................. Sugar ................................................................................................................................................ Confectionery products .................................................................................................................... Alcoholic beverages ......................................................................................................................... Soft drinks and flavorings ................................................................................................................ Miscellaneous food products............................................................................................................. 337 264 280 132 285 37 89 103 138 151 367 199 289 147 246 30 84 91 149 155 369 171 341 148 240 35 89 86 146 171 382 150 360 153 228 35 89 82 156 180 Tobacco manufacturing .................................................................................................................... Fabrics, yam, and thread mills .................................................................................................. . Floor coverings ................................................................................................................................ Miscellaneous textile goods............................................................................................................... Hosiery and knit goods ................................................................................................ . Apparel ................................................................................................................................ Miscellaneous fabricated textile products ......................................................................................... Paper products ................................................................................................................................ Paperboard ................................................................................................................................... Newspaper printing and publishing ................................................................................................. 85 617 51 84 247 1,234 184 471 222 370 70 582 64 71 270 1,112 189 483 217 408 71 542 75 82 301 1,222 206 490 233 464 Periodicals and book printing, publishing ......................................................................................... Miscellaneous printing and publishing .............................................................................................. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals....................................................................................... Agricultural chemicals ..................................................................................................................... Miscellaneous chemical products ..................................................................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber.............................................................................................. Synthetic fibers ............................................................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................................................................................... Paints and allied products................................................................................................................ 217 502 316 57 123 106 110 137 117 70 213 520 346 57 86 103 101 175 125 70 Petroleum refining and related products ......................................................................................... Tires and inner tubes....................................................................................................................... Miscellaneous rubber products ....................................................................................................... Plastic products .............................................................................................................................. Leather tanning and industrial leather.............................................................................................. Footwear and other leather products .............................................................................................. 187 115 185 265 34 324 Transportation: Railroad transportation .................................................................................................................. Local transit, intercity buses ............................................................................................................ Truck transportation ................................................................................................................... Water transportation ............................................................................................................ Air transportation .. ............................................................................................ Pipeline transportation ..................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................... Transportation services ...... Trade: Wholesale trade ..................................................................................................................... Retail trade .................................................................................................................................. Finance, insurance, and real estate: Banking ........................................................................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers.............................................................................................. Insurance .................................................................................................................................... Real estate ..................................................................................................................... 31 1990 1990 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment Technology affects growth. Technological change also can have a pronounced impact on output growth. Some of the most rapidly growing indus tries, synthetic fibers and electronic components, reflect this. It is assumed that these products will be used more and more in the manufacture of final goods through the coming decade. Industries showing little or no output growth during 1980-90 because of changes in the production process include wooden containers, structural clay prod ucts, and leather tanning and industrial leather. Employment by industry Table 4 shows actual and projected employment by industry over the period 1968-90. Employment trends at the industry level are derived from industry output trends, but the two are not strictly parallel. The differences are related to estimates of labor productivity and of average weekly hours, which combine with industry output projections to yield the projections of employment by industry. For example, during cyclical swings, output in manufacturing falls and rises more markedly than employment because labor productivity and the average workweek absorb some of the impact. However, employment in retail trade and other services sectors demonstrates little sensitivity to business cycle peaks and troughs. Table 5 and chart 2 present the projection of employment by major economic sector. Rapid growth is expected for most sectors during 1977-80 compared with 1973-77. After 1980, however, the projections of industry employment growth are generally below historical rates, because of the anticipated labor force slowdown. Distribution virtually unchanged. In terms of shares of total jobs, most of the major sectors continue past trends. Agriculture, manufacturing, transpor tation, wholesale trade, and private households are projected to hold smaller shares of total employ ment. Other services, retail trade, finance, insur ance, and real estate will hold larger shares; the remaining sectors are projected to hold steady shares. One sector projected to diverge from historical trends is the government sector. Historically, civilian government employment has risen consist ently as a proportion of total civilian employment, reaching 16.2 percent in 1977. (See table 6.) The increase in the past has come in State and local government jobs, with the Federal sector holding a fairly steady 3-percent share. In the 1980’s, declining school enrollment will more than com pensate for factors which might cause educational employment to grow, such as smaller class size, expanded special educational programs, and rising staff-teacher ratios. In addition to declining school enrollment, an apparent desire by voters for smaller governments will cause the number of public sector jobs to fall to 14.8 percent of all civilian jobs by 1990. Other State and local functions with projected slowdowns in employment growth include high way construction and maintenance, police services, and public utilities. Employment in public health care industries, however, will rise as a share of total jobs, offsetting the slow growth of some of the other functions. Although the rate of growth of government jobs will be slower during 1977-90 than the rate for private jobs, the State and local Table 5. Total employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 [Level in thousands] Avsngt annual ra il of changa Level Industry itd o f Total civilian employment' ........... Government2 ......................................... Total p riv a te ......................................... A griculture ...................................... Nonagriculture ................................. M ining ........................................... Contract co n stru ctio n ................. M anufacturing ............................. Durable g o o d s ......................... Nondurable g o o d s................... Transportation, communication, and public u tilitie s ..................... Transportation ......................... Communication ....................... Public u tiiitie e ........................... Wholesale and retail trade . . . . W holesale................................ R e ta il........................................ Finance, insurance, and real estate ................................. O ther services ............................. Private households ..................... 1959 1968 1973 1977 67,563 8,083 59,480 5,491 53,989 765 3,680 17,001 9,577 7,424 79,836 11,846 67,990 3,663 64,327 634 3,948 20,038 11,792 8,246 88,408 13,738 74,670 3,206 71,464 677 4,766 20,352 12,029 8,323 4,241 2,743 874 624 13,758 3,527 10,231 4,521 2,840 1,017 664 16,329 4,118 12,211 2,882 9,088 2,574 3,672 12,748 2,437 1990 199$ 1990 93,715 15,189 78,526 2,922 75,604 867 4,672 19,844 11,671 8,173 101,761 15,868 85,893 2,974 82,919 1,002 5,087 21,492 12,929 8,563 111,851 16,865 94,986 2,922 92,064 1,055 5,556 23,014 14,098 8,915 118,615 17,507 101,108 2,634 98,474 1,072 5,748 23,882 14,692 9,189 1.9 4.3 1.5 -4.4 2.0 -2.1 .8 1.8 2.3 1.2 2.1 3.0 1.9 -2.6 2.1 1.3 3.8 .3 .4 4,867 2,919 1,207 741 19,026 4,688 14,338 4,838 2,876 1,203 759 20,908 4,991 15,917 5,212 3,098 1,304 809 23,351 5,511 17,840 5,516 3,270 1,391 856 25,907 5,834 20,073 5,658 3,332 1,473 853 27,370 5,888 21,482 .7 .4 1.7 .7 1.9 1.7 2.0 4,433 15,254 2,089 4,888 17,674 1,913 5,312 19,861 1,602 6,113 23,457 1,447 6,695 26,742 1,307 2.7 3.8 -.6 'Employment Is on a Jobs concept and includes wage and salary workers, the self-employed. unpaid family workers, and private household workers. 19S9-98 1999-73 1973-77 1977-90 1999-95 2 1.5 2.5 1.3 -2.3 1.4 6.4 -.5 -.6 -.8 -.5 2.8 1.5 3.0 .6 3.1 5.0 2.9 2.7 3.5 1.6 1.9 1.2 2.0 -.4 2.1 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 .8 1.2 .8 1.3 -2.1 1.4 .3 .7 .7 .8 .6 1.5 .6 3.5 2.2 3.1 2.6 3.3 -.1 -.4 -.1 .6 2.4 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.2 3.8 3.4 3.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.1 2.4 .5 .4 1.2 -.1 1.1 .2 1.4 3.8 3.7 -3.0 2.5 3.7 -2.2 2.8 4.0 -5.7 2.8 3.4 -2.0 1.8 2.7 -2.0 1995-90 ’Government employment used in this table is based on BLS concepts. The figure includes government enterprise employment. 32 sector (not including education) will rank among the top 10 job-gaining industries, because of its relative size. Rapidly growing industries. The service sector is projected to be the fastest growing segment of the economy, continuing its historical increase as a share of total jobs. In 1959, jobs in service industries accounted for 13.5 percent of total jobs. In 1977, the share was 18.9 percent; by 1990, it is projected to reach 22.5 percent. Two groups of services—private medical care services and miscel laneous business services—have been and will continue to be primarily responsible for this gain. As shown in the following tabulation, these service industries are among the leaders in projected average annual employment growth during 1977— 90: In dustries A vera g e annual ra te o f j o b growth, 1 9 7 7 -9 0 Other medical services ................................. Other transportation equipment ________ Miscellaneous business services .................. Synthetic fibers ................................................ Computers and peripheral equipment Hospitals ........................................................... Floor coverings ................................................ Transportation services ................................. Copper ore mining ........................................ Radio and television broadcasting . . Industries Retail trade .......................................................... State and local government other than education ....................................... Miscellaneous business services ...................... Other medical services ..................................... Hospitals ............................................................... Wholesale trade .................................................. Banking ................................................................. Miscellaneous professional services .............. Nonprofit organizations ................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services ...................... E m ploym ent gain, 1 9 7 7 -9 0 (thousands) 5,565 2,148 2,044 1,801 1,703 897 712 626 609 607 Of the more than 5 million new retail trade jobs, most will be in eating and drinking establishments, general merchandise stores, and food stores. Employment growth for this sector reflects not only demand factors but supply factors as well, particularly an extensive use of part-time help. The average workweek for all retail trade establish ments declined almost 7 hours, from 39.9 hours per week in 1959 to 33.1 hours per week in 1977; by 1990, it is projected to decline even further, to an average of 30.3 hours per week. At the same time, retail establishments will continue to introduce many cost-saving technologies, such as computer ized checkout systems and standardized menus, somewhat dampening the jobs forecast. 7.1 6.4 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 Private medical care services include hospitals, offices of physicians and dentists, and such other medical services as medical laboratories, nursing services, blood banks, and nursing and convales cent homes. Between 1959 and 1977, employment in these industries grew by 3.3 million jobs, an average annual rate of 6.0 percent. Job growth in the medical sector is projected to taper off somewhat from this pace but to continue as one of the most rapidly growing areas of the economy through the next decade, partially the result of an aging population. Over 4.1 million new jobs will be added in private medical care services between 1977 and 1990, an average yearly gain of 4.6 percent. Miscellaneous business services, which include janitorial, photocopying, temporary office help, equipment rental and leasing, and other related services, also will continue to be increasingly important in the totdl job-growth picture. Employ ment in this industry more than tripled between 1959 and 1977, rising 6.6 percent a year to total 2.3 million jobs by 1977. Employment growth is projected to average 4.9 percent a year through 1990, compared to the 1.8-percent annual growth rate for total civilian employment 1977-90. In terms of the absolute number of new jobs created between 1977-90, retail trade ranks num ber one, primarily because of the size of the industry: Slowdowns or declines expected. Several industries are projected to have relatively small employment gains compared with past trends. Employment in the steel industry, for example, is projected to rise to 593,000 jobs in 1980, as the economy fully recovers from recession, but then will remain constant through 1985 and decline to 553,000 by 1990. Part of the reason behind the leveling off is a projected continued substitution of aluminum and plastic for steel in the production of new cars, as energy demands continue to require lighter weight vehicles. In addition, steel users are expected to continue shifting their purchases from domestic to foreign suppliers. Employment growth in the motor vehicle indus try also is projected to slow somewhat. The underlying causes of this slowdown are a rise in productivity in the auto industry and the change in the age composition of the population. During the 33 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment Chart 2. Total employment by major sector, selected years 1959-77, and projections to 1980, 1985, and 1990 Percent distribution Percent _ Private households 100 90 — Other services 80 Finance, — insurance, and real estate 70 — Trade 60 50 - 40 - 30 - Transportation, — communication, and public utilities — Manufacturing •Construction 20 •M ining ‘ Agriculture 10 “ ■Government 1959 1968 1973 1977 1980 1960’s and 1970’s, the baby-boom generation entered the marketplace and created a large, new demand for automobiles. During the next decade, this cohort will reach middle age; the demand for new cars will still be strong, but the unusual surge experienced in the 1960’s will not be repeated. Somewhat offsetting these trends, however, is the expectation that the devalued dollar and the increasing competitiveness of domestic manufac turers in the small-car market will halt the historical rise of imports as a share of new cars sold 34 1985 1990 in the United States. Communications is another industry projected to experience little employment growth during 1977-90. Although output growth in this sector is projected to outrank growth in all other industries, technological innovations, resulting in top produc tivity gains, will offset output growth. As a consequence, telephone and telegraph employment is projected to rise only modestly through 1990. Several industries are projected to experience actual job declines over the next decade. Industries Average annual rate o f jo b decline, 1977-90 C h em ical and fertilizer m ineral m ining .................................................... Leather tann in g and industrial leather ................................................ Structural clay products ................................... Private h ou seh old s ................................................ W o o d en containers .............................................. D airy products (n on m anu factured) . G a s utilities ............................................................ D airy and poultry products .......................... Saw m ills and p lan in g m ills ............................. R ailroad transportation ..................................... Table 6. Changing share of government employment, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 [In percent] Components -3.7 -3.2 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.6 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 1998 1973 1977 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Government1 ............................................. Federal (civilia n ) ................................. General government . . . Enterprises2 ..................................... State and local ................................... Education ......................................... Noneducation general government Enterprises’ ..................................... P riv a te ....................................................... 12.0 3.3 2.3 1.0 8.7 4.0 4.2 .5 88.0 14.8 3.4 2.3 1.1 11.4 5.9 4.9 .6 85.2 15.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 12.5 6.5 5.4 .6 84.5 16.2 2.9 2.0 .9 13.3 6.9 5.7 .7 83.8 1990 1985 1990 100.0 100.0 100.0 15.6 2.7 1.9 .9 12.9 6.4 5.7 .8 84.4 15.1 2.6 1.8 .8 12.5 5.9 5.7 .9 84.9 14.8 2.5 1.7 .8 12.3 5.4 5.9 .9 85.2 'Based on BLS concept. ’Includes the Postal Service, TVA, military post exchanges, and other federally operated services receiving more than half their revenue from sales. ’Includes local transit, water and sanitary utilities, State liquor stores, municipal parking facilities, and other State or local government-operated services receiving more than half their revenue from sales. The largest cutback is expected to occur in the private household sector, reflecting a continued drop in the supply of domestic workers. Demand factors play the primary role in job reductions in some food products industries, tobacco manufac turing, gas utilities, and ordnance manufacturing; changes in the manufacturing process will cause job declines in the wooden container and leather tanning industries. Farm employment is expected to continue to decline through the next decade; however, the drop will not be as rapid as in the past few decades. In the past, productivity gains in agricul ture have been very large; between 1959 and 1977, output per hour of all persons in the farm sector rose almost 5 percent a year, compared with about 2 or 3 percent for the nonfarm economy before 1973 and about 1 percent a year since then. The rapid pace of productivity gains in farming is already beginning to slow, however, and the continued slowdown in the 1980’s will moderate the projected rate of decline in farm jobs. For the private economy as a whole, the projected increase in output was found to be most responsible for the 22.6-million increase in employ ment between 1977 and 1990. The increase in output more than offsets the decline that would have taken place as a result of the decline in unit labor requirements alone. Changes in the average workweek were shown to have very little effect on the employment change. Most of the 149 industries follow this general pattern—positive effect of increases in demand and negative effect of declines in unit labor requirements (or increases in produc tivity)—but the relative importance of the changes in each factor result in differential industry employment growth. High employment alternative An alternative set of projections was developed which allows for much higher levels of employ ment in the 1980’s. The alternate case assumes a higher rate of growth for the labor force than does the base case and also assumes that the unemploy ment rate will be lower. The result of these two assumptions is that total civilian employment in the alternate case will be more than 7 million higher than the base case in 1990. In the following tabulation, the major differences in assumptions between the two sets of projections are summa rized (labor force data in thousands): Output the main factor in job forecast What is the relative importance of output versus productivity in the projection of employment? To answer this question, estimates of 1990 employ ment were prepared that isolate the effects of projected output, projected unit labor require ments, and projected average weekly hours on employment by industry. For the effect of output alone, productivity and average weekly hours were held at their 1977 levels, and projected levels were used only for output to compute 1990 employment. Comparing this forecast with the actual forecast thus measures the effect of output changes alone. For the effect of productivity projections, employ ment was projected holding output and average hours at their 1977 levels; for the effect of the workweek forecast, output and productivity were held constant. 1959 Total ............................................................. 1980: Base ................................................ A ltern ate ...................................... 1985: B a s e ...................................... A ltern ate ...................................... 1990: Base ................................................ A lternate ...................................... 35 Labor force Unemployment rate 106,099 107,554 5.5 5.5 115,041 119,095 4.7 4.0 121,456 127,692 4.5 4.0 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment 1985, and 3.6 percent higher in 1990. Output at the industry level in the alternate case generally mirrors this pattern, although industries that are most dependent on State and local government demand will have even greater output in the alternate case than the average for all industries. Examples where 1990 output in the high employ ment alternative is more than 6 percent larger than in the base forecast are other medical services, highway construction, other nonbuilding construc tion, drugs, hospitals, maintenance and repair construction, nonresidential building construction, and medical and dental instruments. Employment in the alternate case is also higher than in the base case in most industries. As mentioned earlier in this article, at first, most of the additional jobs will be in State and local govern ment, but in 1990 the private sector job level is 5.2 million higher than in the base case. Industries gaining more than the average include drugs, h o sp itals, an d ban k in g ; sectors relatively unaffected by the changed assumptions in the alternate case are private households, farms, and farm services. □ The lower unemployment rate is assumed to be achieved initially through increased Federal grants to State and local governments. These grants would be used to hire more workers in State and local government functions other than education, principally in health, highways, parks and recre ation, and natural resources. The increased demand generated by the addi tional hirings then would stimulate the rest of the economy. Contributing to the higher employment growth in the private sector during 1980-90 is the assumption that productivity gains will be some what slower in the alternate case than in the base case, the result of more inexperienced workers entering the labor force. By 1985, it is assumed that a majority of the extra jobs in the alternate case compared to the base case will be in the private sector. The impact of these assumptions is to raise the output and employment projections of virtually every industry. (See table 4.) Total private GNP in 1980 is 0.5 percent higher in the alternate case compared to the base case, 2.0 percent higher in ■FOOTNOTES3 Ronald E. Kutscher, Jerome A. Mark, and John R. Norsworthy, “The productivity slowdown and the outlook to 1985,” Monthly Labor Review, May 1977, pp. 3-8. 1 The first article (Paul O. Flaim and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Labor force projections to 1990: three possible paths,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 25-35) reported on labor force projections. The second (Norman C. Saunders, “The U.S. economy in 1990: two projections for growth,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 36-46) presented the macroeconomic forecast and the underlying assumptions upon which the industry projections rest. The third (Arthur Andreassen, “Changing patterns o f demand: BLS projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 47 55) described projected changes in demand by private consumers, government, investors, and the foreign sector. 2 This projection is the intermediate growth forecast o f the labor force prepared by the BLS. Two alternate forecasts o f the labor force were also prepared—a high-growth case and a low-growth case. For more details on the three labor force projections, see Flaim and Fullerton, “Labor force projections.” 4 The energy projections included in this study are based on the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Energy Model (version o f March 1977). The model was solved with BLS macroeconomic and DRI energy assumptions. The resulting demand figures for different fuels were used to develop target output and import levels for the energy industries. The energy coefficients o f the input-output table were projected independently, based primarily on the projected relative fuel prices implicit in the energy output projections. 5 For a detailed description o f how the factors determine the projections o f industry output, see Richard P. Oliver, Methodology: Bureau o f Labor Statistics Projections o f Employment to 1990, a BLS report to be published later this year. 36 Appendix. Supplementary Tables Table A-1. Gross domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 (In millions of 1972 dollars) Indus t r y Total p r i v a t e 1959 1968 1973 1977 / 1980 1985 1990 ...................................... 1,2 30,688 1,7 88,200 2,152,478 2 , 3 1 7,860 2,625,434 3, 160,721 3 , 7 40,024 Agriculture• D a i r y a n d p o u l t r y p r o d u c t s ...................... M e a t a n i m a l s and l i v e stock ...................... C o t t o n ............................ .................. Food a n d f e e d grains ............................. O t h e r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s ..................... 12,343 24,233 2,520 12,067 11,688 11,962 29,641 1,765 15,686 14,759 12,435 34, 098 2,118 19,832 18,089 15,002 37,798 3, 122 23,950 22,676 13,237 38,366 3,476 25, 186 20,711 14,043 42,998 3,921 29,323 23, 3 3 8 16,023 45,290 4,379 32,877 25,412 Mi ni ng: Iron a n d f e r r o a l l o y or es m i n i n g ................ C o p p e r ore m i n i n g ................................. O t h e r n o n f e r r o u s or e m i n i n g ..................... Coal m i n i n g ........... ............................. C r u d e p e t r o l e u m and natur al ga s ................ S t o n e a n d c l a y m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g ........... C h e m i c a l a n d f e r t i l i z e r miner al m i n i n g ....... 76 1 751 696 4,256 11,981 2,0 94 503 1,311 1, 170 662 5, 173 16,445 2,721 627 1,500 1,665 709 5,342 17,38 1 3,216 820 1, 179 967 478 6,844 15,301 3,481 1,443 2, 148 1,729 7 11 7,646 18,550 3,899 1,025 2,291 2,0 17 757 9,867 19,001 4,495 1,220 2,358 2,291 798 12, 199 19,033 5,023 1,441 C o n s tructi o n ■ New r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g co n s t r u c t i o n ......... New n o n r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n ..... New p u b l i c u t i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................ New h i g h w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n ........................ All o t h e r n e w c o n s t r u c t i o n ................... |. . Oil and g a s well d r i l l i n g and e x p l o r a t i o n .... M a i n t e n a n c e a n d re pair co n s t r u c t i o n ........... 36,6 43 22,3 37 9,600 9,096 7,192 3,4 75 24, 762 39,42 9 38, 095 16,818 12,012 7,456 3,0 09 33,070 52,615 37,031 17,874 9,540 7,3 33 2,740 33,27 4 41,979 30,039 18,152 6,96 1 8,029 3,852 34,547 50,802 36,128 19,067 8,343 7,588 4,084 37,300 66,977 38,333 21,464 8,337 8,4 16 4,740 40, 2 6 3 70,6 39 44,224 25,8 99 8,348 8,870 5,398 42,559 Manufacturing• Durables: O r d n a n c e ............................................ C o m p l e t e g u i d e d m i s s i l e s ........................ L o g g i n g ............................................. S a w m i l l s a n d p l a n i n g m i l l s ...................... M i l l w o r k , ply woo d, an d oth er wood p r o d u c t s ... W o o d e n c o n t a i n e r s ................................. H o u s e h o l d f u r n i t u r e .............................. O t h e r f u r n i t u r e and f i x t u r e s ................... G l a s s ................................................ C e m e n t a n d c o n c r e t e pr o d u c t s ................... S t r u c t u r a l clay p r o d u c t s ........................ P o t t e r y a n d rela t e d p r o d u c t s .................... Mi s c e l l a n e o u s stone and cla y pr o d u c t s ......... Bl a s t f u r n a c e s and bas i c steel p r o d u c t s ...... Iron a n d ste el f o u n d r i e s an d fo r g i n g s ......... P r i m a r y c o p p e r and cop p e r pr o d u c t s ............ P r i m a r y a l u m i n u m and a l u m i n u m p r o d u c t s ....... O t h e r p r i m a r y n o n f e r r o u s p r o d u c t s ..... .'....... Me t a l c o n t a i n e r s .................................. H e a t i n g a p p a r a t u s and p l u m b i n g f i x t u r e s ...... F a b r i c a t e d s t r u ctural met al ..................... S c r e w m a c h i n e p r o d u c t s ........................... M e t a l s t a m p i n g s ................................... Cutlery, h a n d tools, a n d ge ner al h a r d w a r e ..... 3,3 22 4,072 3,43 8 6,47 8 4,8 06 566 4,831 2,066 3,50 1 6, 137 1,10 1 657 3,3 02 24,2 9 9 6,16 1 7,508 4,483 3,78 9 3,2 14 2,090 8,3 7 2 3,06 1 5,551 3,21 9 9,084 5,842 4,968 6,416 7,440 681 6,287 3,456 4,97 1 8,031 1, 173 755 4,447 31,617 8,93 7 10,606 7,8 84 5,890 4,7 79 2,598 13,089 3,7 72 8,8 21 4,777 5,026 2,938 5,452 7,0 63 10,520 444 7,8 45 4,762 6,7 58 10,105 1,240 925 4,971 34, 837 10,337 13,894 10,925 6,0 73 5,6 15 3,2 02 15,335 3,80 1 9,502 5,822 5,050 3,280 7,636 7,50 1 11,926 6 13 7,399 4,386 6,818 10,263 1,422 1,060 5,810 29,250 11,183 12,715 11,150 5,840 5,90 1 2,862 13,209 3,4 19 9,055 6,17 1 5, 137 3,442 6,294 6,595 13,735 427 9,450 5,422 7,872 1 1,456 1, 132 948 5,311 37,764 12,341 15,415 11,982 7,211 6,704 3,464 19,232 3,796 11,096 7,171 5,640 3,651 7,682 7,342 19,378 459 12,035 6,241 9,385 13,678 1,234 1, 132 6,083 40,797 14,430 18,028 14,638 8,2 3 5 8, 121 4,263 24,471 3,947 12,942 8,850 6,090 4,086 8,588 7,472 24,062 482 14,514 7,208 10,944 15,368 1,245 1,284 6,830 42,785 16,630 20,587 17,525 9, 194 9,600 4,841 30,816 4,009 14,861 10,596 Table A -1. Continued—Gross domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 (In millions of 1972 dollars) Industry Ot h e r f a b r i c a t e d m e t a l p r o d u c t s ................ En gi ne s, t u r bines, a n d g e n e r a t o r s ............. Fa rm m a c h i n e r y ..................................... C o n s t r u c t i o n , m i n ing, a n d o i l f i e l d m a c h i n e r y . M a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g e q u i p m e n t ..................... Metal w o r k i n g m a c h i n e s ........................... S p e c i a l i n d u s t r y m a c h i n e r y ...................... G e n e r a l indu s t r i a l m a c h i n e r y ................... M a c h i n e shop p r o d u c t s ............................ C o m p u t e r s and p e r i p h e r a l equ i p m e n t ............ T y p e w r i t e r s a n d o t h e r o f f i c e e q u i p m e n t ....... S e r v i c e i n d u s t r y m a c h i n e s ....................... E l e c t r i c t r a n s m i s s i o n e q u i p m e n t ................ E l e c t r i c a l i n d u s t r i a l a p p a r a t u s ................ H o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s ............................. E l e c t r i c l i g h t i n g a n d w i r i n g ................... Ra d i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n r e c e i v i n g sets ........... T e l e p h o n e a n d t e l e g r a p h a p p a r a t u s ............. Radio a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n e q u i p m e n t ............. E l e c t r o n i c c o m p o n e n t s ............................ M i s c e l l a n e o u s e l e c t r i c a l p r o d u c t s ............. M o t o r v e h i c l e s ..................................... Ai rcr a f t ............................................ Sh i p a n d boa t b u i l d i n g a n d re pair ............. R a i l r o a d e q u i p m e n t ................................ M o t o r c y c l e s , bic y c l e s , a n d pa r t s ............... O t h e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u i p m e n t ................. S c i e n t i f i c a n d c o n t r o l l i n g inst r u m e n t s ....... M e d i c a l a n d dent a l i n s t r u m e n t s ................. O p t i c a l a n d o p h t h a l m i c e q u i p m e n t .............. P h o t o g r a p h i c e q u i p m e n t and su p p l i e s ........... Watch e s , cl ock s, a n d clock o p e r a t e d devi c e s .. J e w e l r y a n d s i l v e r w a r e ........................... M u s i c a l i n s t r u m e n t s a n d sp o r t i n g goods ....... Oth e r m i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r e d pr o d u c t s .... Nondurables J M e a t p r o d u c t s ...................................... Dai ry p r o d u c t s ..................................... C a n n e d a n d f r o z e n f o o d s .......................... Gra i n m i l l p r o d u c t s ............................... B a k e r y p r o d u c t s .................................... Sug a r ................................................ C o n f e c t i o n e r y p r o d u c t s ........................... A l c o h o l i c b e v e r a g e s ............................... So ft d r i n k s a n d f l a v o r i n g s ...................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s f o o d p r o d u c t s ..................... T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r i n g ............................ Fab ri cs , yarn, a n d t h r e a d m i l l s ................ Floo r c o v e r i n g s .................................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s t e x t i l e g o o d s ..................... H o s i e r y a n d kn it g o o d s ........................... Apparel .............................................. M i s c e l l a n e o u s f a b r i c a t e d t e x t i l e p r o d u c t s .... Pa p e r p r o d u c t s ..................................... P a p e r b o a r d .......................................... N e w s p a p e r p r i n t i n g a n d p u b l i s h i n g ............. P e r i o d i c a l s a n d book pri nti nq , p u b l i s h i n g .... M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g ........ I n d u s t r i a l i n o r g a n i c a n d orga n i c c h e m i c a l s ... 1959 1968 1973 1977 1980 7, 129 3,279 3,799 5,679 1,726 5,744 4,289 5,860 2,828 2,095 856 2,903 3,219 3,853 3,745 3,527 1,67 1 1,565 4,37 1 2,9 75 2,451 34,200 18,404 2,628 1,584 183 807 3,741 1,055 446 1,506 554 1,496 2,264 3,256 10,983 5,066 5, 176 7,554 3,066 9,262 6,621 8,7 19 4,983 5,3 00 1,442 6,2 07 4,79 9 6,3 76 6,576 5, 169 4,44 2 3,500 12,751 7,36 4 4,023 60,579 27,4 18 3,674 2,560 452 2,477 4, 193 2,218 1,053 4,000 1,100 2,548 3,295 4,865 13,492 7,5 52 6,70 5 9,804 3,722 9,6 17 7,505 10,739 5,84 2 8, 129 1,596 10,134 6,63 8 7, 155 8,982 6,667 6,194 5,3 92 9,867 10,378 5,676 77, 468 19,302 4,730 3,3 22 976 5,521 5,094 3,534 1,460 6,889 1,138 2,576 4,517 6,737 16,127 7,373 6,991 12,238 3,603 9,598 7, 165 11,104 6,939 10,697 1,832 8,218 6,065 6,783 9,258 5,759 6,032 4,387 10,883 10, 159 6,151 80,473 16,334 6,102 2,676 837 4,301 6,198 4,950 2,0 17 7,643 1,235 2,639 4,587 7,392 16,266 8,800 8,547 11,772 5, 125 11,309 8,236 13,075 7,772 14,354 2,283 12,204 7,962 7,938 11,340 7,862 9,347 6,76 1 11,473 15,220 7,324 91,378 21,447 7, 159 3,791 1,472 5,525 6,04 1 4,793 2, 122 9,895 1,491 3,36 1 5,974 8,293 21, 786 14,850 7,784 8,477 7,7 68 2,407 2,664 6,6 89 3,407 9,670 8,607 13,703 757 2, 113 2,747 17,232 2,996 12,456 4,748 5,725 5,404 8,43 3 10,314 29, 4 1 8 15, 140 11,628 11,170 8, 5 5 2 3, 139 3,569 9,707 5,547 12,699 9,37 1 18,389 2, 109 3, 164 5,08 3 23,775 5,00 2 18,225 7,492 7,391 8,38 6 12,529 17,169 30,571 17,260 14,407 13,415 8,902 3,411 4, 179 12,813 7,4 99 13,666 10,483 19,804 3,637 3,515 8,4 67 28,4 67 6,939 23,686 9,272 8,60 9 10,493 17, 149 23,841 34,645 19,865 15,435 17,601 9,352 3,798 4,594 14,171 9,310 13,261 11,098 23,4 26 3, 141 3,361 8,190 30, 155 6,7 93 26,071 9,706 8,484 10,824 16,989 29, 715 36,397 17,534 18,232 16,213 9,133 3,757 4,487 17,383 9,506 16,619 11,039 22,548 4,933 i4,338 11,407 36,497 8,509 28,056 11,172 9,57 1 12,780 18,952 30,67 1 1985 1990 18,891 10,453 10,212 14,847 6, 145 13,690 10,153 15,790 9,092 19, 158 2,578 15,548 9,513 9,812 14,562 9,085 12,047 8,384 12,162 20,838 8,514 1 10,936 24,483 7,816 4,822 1,921 7,750 6,975 5,886 2,506 12,732 2,057 4,390 7,799 10,272 21,564 12,417 12,250 18,229 7,376 16, 152 12,592 18,822 10,605 25,835 2,837 19,434 11,486 12,062 18,010 10,218 15, 162 10,631 13,596 28,7 1 5 9,580 132,423 28,447 9,234 6,088 2,670 9, 145 7,972 7,196 2,930 16,406 2,688 5,567 9,772 12,452 40,896 18,072 21,159 19,065 9,572 4,333 5,006 20,6 42 11,836 19,664 11,691 26,224 7, 176 5,251 14,909 45,375 10,673 33,859 13,675 10 ,#30 / 14,041 20,520 39,7 52 43,036 21,263 23,719 21,746 9,941 4,823 5,445 23,6 55 13,948 22,284 12,242 29,952 9,7 18 6, 128 18,906 54,6 32 13,037 39,977 16,541 11,989 15,430 21,798 50,830 Table A -1. Continued—Gross domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 (In millions of 1972 dollars) Industry 1959 1968 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 A g r i c u l t u r a l c h e m i c a l s ........................ M i s c e l l a n e o u s chemical p r o d u c t s ............. P l a s t i c m a t e r i a l s and s y n t hetic ru bber ..... S y n t h e t i c f i b e r s ................................ D r u g s ...................... .............. ........ C l e a n i n g a n d toilet p r e p a r a t i o n s ............ P a i n t s a n d a l l i e d p r o ducts ................... P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and related p r o ducts .... T i r e s a n d inn er tube s .......................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s rubber p r o d u c t s ................ P l a s t i c p r o d u c t s ................................ L e a t h e r t a n n i n g and indust ri al le ather ..... F o o t w e a r a n d ot h e r le ath er produ c t s ......... 1,599 3,3 02 2,8 72 1,505 3, 166 A , 797 2,673 20, 573 3,360 3, 1A5 2,397 1, A68 A ,8A0 2,7 85 5,221 5,85A 3,760 6,200 8, A28 3,532 30,2 65 A,817 A , 920 7,6 05 1 ,A2A 5, A50 3 , 2A6 5, A89 10,012 5,757 9,7A6 11,278 A, 528 35,752 6,876 5,665 13, 176 1,266 A , 725 A, 156 A ,55 A 15,662 7,255 13,071 12,787 3,757 A 5 ,996 7,622 5,738 18,280 1,333 A , 282 A , 360 6,570 13,2A9 8,959 13,30 A 12,883 5,520 A3,869 8,697 6, A3 1 16,886 1,219 A , 759 5,011 8,26 A 15,750 13,332 17, 138 17,087 6, 99A A 6 ,3A7 10,888 7,367 20,721 1,233 A , 939 5,573 10,256 18,852 19,355 21,679 22, 1A6 8,593 A 7 ,97A 13,A 9A 8,331 2 5 , 2A 1 1,196 A , 872 T r a n s p o r t a t io n : R a i l r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ....................... Local tra nsit, in ter city buses ............... Tr u c k t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................... W a t e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................... Air t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ............................. P i p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ....................... T r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s ....................... 12,376 7,165 19,358 3,8 83 A, 125 768 1, A83 16,359 6,070 25,591 6,23 1 11,759 1,330 1,37 A 18,679 5,787 32,60 3 9 , 3AA 1A ,351 1,702 1 ,86 1 16,259 5,516 32,806 9, A38 16,697 1,786 1,800 21,012 6,811 38, 185 12,658 20,716 2,192 2,582 23,937 7,626 A A ,8A2 15,076 27,691 2, A2 9 2,963 26,821 9,078 5 1,7A3 17,925 36,029 2,6 A2 3 , 65A Commun ic a t i o n s 5 C o m m u n i c a t i o n , exce pt radio and tele v i s i o n . Rad i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n b r o a d c a s t i n g ........... 12,036 2,8 9A 22,897 3,6 75 3 A ,AA6 5,290 A 5 ,657 A ,A35 53,522 6, A76 7 A ,0 A 1 8 , 3A9 101,5AA 10,612 Publi c u t i l i t i e s 5 E l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s ............................. G a s u t i l i t i e s ................................... W a t e r a n d s a n i t a r y se rvices .................. 1A ,082 11,2 1A 3,9 99 2 A , 927 18,367 5,328 3A, 198 20, 192 6,16 1 33,826 18,910 6, A27 A 2 ,A83 11 •7 A6 7,228 56, 135 16,983 8 , 5A3 71,875 16,653 9,9 1A Trade5 W h o l e s a l e t r a d e ................................. R e t a i 1 t r a d e ...... .............................. A 7 ,087 99,926 80,325 131,383 96,907 151,365 103,675 162 ,3A6 123,563 18A,729 1A 5 ,6 02 226, 537 168,812 271, 552 Fin an ce , ins ur ance, an d real e s t a t e 5 B a n k i n g ........................................... C r e d i t a g e n c i e s a n d fina nci al brokers ...... I n s u r a n c e ........................................ O w n e r - o c c u p i e d real est a t e ................... Real e s t a t e ...................................... 1A ,AAA 11,860 2 6 , 0 A5 A 5 ,635 A 9,7 92 20,612 15,239 33, 219 63, 726 77,672 25, 978 11,982 A3,009 80,5 5 8 101,237 29,661 12,725 50, 815 98,921 112, 1 1A 35,518 15,577 53, 1A 0 1 10,692 136,39A A A ,376 18,171 63,636 136,085 168,913 53,685 20,873 75,281 16 A ,5A6 20A ,777 Serv i c e s 5 H o t e l s a n d l o d g i n g pla c e s ..................... P e r s o n a l a n d repa i r services ................. B a r b e r a n d b e a u t y shops ....................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s b u s i n e s s servi c e s ............. A d v e r t i s i n g ...................................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r o f e s s i o n a l services ......... A u t o m o b i l e r e p a i r .............................. M o t i o n p i c t u r e s ................................. A m u s e m e n t s a n d r e c r e a t i o n services .......... Doctors' a n d de nti sts' servi c e s ............. H o s p i t a l s ........................................ O t h e r m e d i c a l s e r v i c e s ........................ E d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s ........................... N o n p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s ....................... F o r e s t r y a n d f i s h e r y produ c t s ................ A g r i c u l t u r a l , fo res try, and f i s h e r y se r v i c e s P r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ....... ...................... 5, 100 12,757 A , 330 1A ,258 17,003 15,993 13,767 5 , 2A 9 5,337 12,A63 8,636 3,576 6,906 9,969 2,690 2,621 6,717 7, 176 1A ,382 A, 165 31, 583 20, 853 22, 191 21,0 26 5,33 3 7,666 19,031 16, A60 7,078 11,226 15,300 2,206 3, A9 1 6,091 9, 109 13,976 3,870 A 2 ,7 1A 2 2 , 50A 28,802 25,702 8, 103 8, 8 3 5 25,7 7 A 25,568 11,077 13,650 17,688 2, A59 3,690 5,252 9, 172 13,302 3,630 51, 272 26,0 69 3 A , 9 12 2 7 , A63 10,A20 10,093 27,261 31,876 13, 133 1A ,620 19,953 3, 153 A , 3A3 A ,A3 1 11,558 1A , 131 3,882 63,677 23,987 35,070 32, 1AA 10,766 10,55A 3 A ,853 3 6 , 0 A7 15,82A 1A,5 18 20,607 3, 17 1 A , 278 3 , 6A3 1A,859 1A,856 A , 067 82, 3 1 5 2 6 , 3A5 A 2 , 150 A0, 136 13, 1A8 12,192 A3,668 A8,803 19,277 16, 163 2 3 , 25A 3,8A9 A , 882 3,289 18,A6 1 15,655 A,262 10 A ,7 A A 2 8 , A90 A 9,596 A 9 ,056 16,086 13,957 5 A ,87 7 65,339 2 3 ,75A 17,230 25,993 A,269 5, A7 9 2,971 Table A-2. Average weekly hours and hours of all persons by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1977-90 1977 1980 1985 1990 1977 1980 1985 1990 36.7 36.5 35.8 35.3 150,011 163,012 177,0 17 185,632 Agri c u l t u r e 1 Da i r y and p o u l t r y p r o d u c t s ...................... N e a t a n i m a l s a n d l i v e s t o c k ...................... Cot t o n ............................................... Fo od a n d fe e d g r a i n s ............................. O t h e r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s ..................... 44.4 44.4 44.3 44.3 44.3 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 41.9 41.9 41.9 41.9 41.9 40.9 40.9 40.9 40.9 40.9 1,225 1,264 339 1,531 2,378 1,101 1,307 384 1,641 2,215 996 1,248 369 1,629 2, 128 908 1,051 329 1,460 1,852 Mi ni ng : Iron a n d f e r r o a l l o y o r e s m i n i n g ................ C o p p e r ore m i n i n g ................................. Other n o n f e r r o u s ore m i n i n g ..................... Coal m i n i n g ......................................... C r u d e p e t r o l e u m a n d natu r a l gas ................ St o n e and c l a y m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g ........... C h e m i c a l a n d f e r t i l i z e r miner al m i n i n g ....... 42.2 39.0 4 1.8 41.3 4 1.0 43.2 42.8 43. 3 4 1.0 4 1.0 40. 1 4 1.0 43.6 43.5 43.5 41.0 41.0 40. 1 40.9 43.6 43.5 43.7 41.0 41.1 40.3 41.0 43.6 43.7 57 71 63 500 4 16 218 49 82 101 66 558 529 232 33 73 113 66 648 498 233 33 61 121 62 743 447 220 31 Construction1 Ne w r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n ......... Ne w n o n r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n ..... New p u b l i c u t i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................ New h i g h w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................ ........ All o t h e r new c o n s t r u c t i o n ...................... Oil a n d gas wel l d r i l l i n g and explo r a t i o n .... M a i n t e n a n c e a n d r e p a i r c o n s t r u c t i o n ........... 37.8 37.8 37.9 37.9 37.7 46.6 37.8 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 38.0 46.4 37.9 37.7 37.8 37.7 37.8 37.9 46.4 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.9 38.0 46.6 37.9 2,559 2, 105 1, 152 420 4 98 557 2,457 2,815 2,398 1,259 450 448 6 14 2,656 3, 175 2,583 1,416 439 453 668 2,84 1 3, 16 1 2,789 1,589 416 435 690 2,918 M a n u f a c t u r in g : Durables: O r d n a n c e ............................................ C o m p l e t e g u i d e d m i s s i l e s ........................ L o g g i n g ..................... ........................ S a w m i l l s a n d p l a n i n g m i l l s ...................... Mil l w o r k , plywood, a n d oth er w o o d p r o d u c t s ... W o o d e n c o n t a i n e r s ................................. H o u s e h o l d f u r n i t u r e ............................... Oth e r f u r n i t u r e a n d f i x t u r e s ................... G l a s s ................................................ Ceme n t a n d c o n c r e t e p r o d u c t s ................... S t r u c t u r a l cl a y p r o d u c t s ........................ P o t t e r y a n d r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s ................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s st o n e a n d clay p r o d u c t s ........ Blast f u r n a c e s a n d b a s i c steel p r o d u c t s ...... Iron and steel f o u n d r i e s and f o r g i n g s ........ P r i m a r y c o p p e r a n d c o p p e r p r o d u c t s ............ P r i m a r y a l u m i n u m a n d a l u m i n u m p r o d u c t s ....... O t h e r p r i m a r y n o n f e r r o u s p r o d u c t s ............. Metal c o n t a i n e r s .................................. H e a t i n g a p p a r a t u s a n d p l u m b i n g f i x t u r e s ...... 40.5 39.9 39.7 41.1 39.9 39.4 38.6 39.8 40.4 42. 1 40. 9 39.4 40.7 40.2 40.8 42.2 41.4 40.5 43. 1 39.7 40.7 39.9 39.9 4 1.0 40. 3 38.9 38.9 39.7 40.8 42.0 40.9 38.8 40.6 40.2 40.8 41.4 41.4 41.1 43. 1 40. 1 40.7 39.9 39.6 40.9 40.2 38.8 38.8 39.6 40.7 41. 9 40.9 38.7 40.6 40. 2 40.8 41.4 41.3 41.1 43.0 40. 1 40.8 39.8 39.9 41.0 40.3 38.8 38.9 39.7 40.8 41.9 41.0 38.7 40.7 40.2 40.9 41.4 41.4 41.2 43. 1 40. 1 156 168 264 515 687 43 750 302 403 5 15 119 84 292 1, 138 6 16 307 312 183 166 155 158 198 249 482 707 37 836 340 434 549 97 85 306 1,239 684 356 330 208 184 159 151 190 246 463 831 33 941 360 467 586 91 87 326 1,233 737 379 358 219 197 167 143 178 243 425 917 29 1,014 380 476 581 81 84 329 1,157 755 381 368 219 199 161 Total p r i v a t e ^ o H o u r s of all p e r s o n s (in m i l l ions) A v e r a g e w e e k l y hours Industry Table A-2. Continued-Average weekly hours and hours o f all persons by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1977-90 Average weekly hours H o u r s of all p e r s o n s (in m i l l i o n s ) Industry 1977 F a b r i c a t e d st ruc tural met al .................... S c r e w m a c h i n e p r o d u c t s .......................... Me t a l s t a m p i n g s .................................. Cutlery, handt ool s, and qe neral h a r d w a r e .... O t h e r f a b r i c a t e d metal pr o d u c t s ............... En gines, turb in es, an d g e n e r a t o r s ............ Farm m a c h i n e r y .................................... C o n s t r u c t i o n , mining, and o i l f i e l d m a c h i n e r y M a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g equ i p m e n t .................... Me t a l w o r k i n g m a c h i n e s .......................... S p e c i a l indus t r y m a c h i n e r y ..................... G e n e r a l in dus trial m a c h i n e r y .................. M a c h i n e shop pr o d u c t s ....... ................... C o m p u t e r s and peripheral e q u ipment ........... T y p e w r i t e r s and oth er o f f i c e e q u i p m e n t ...... S e r v i c e i n d ustry m a c h i n e s ...................... E l e c t r i c t r a n s m i s s i o n equipment ............... E l e c t r i c a l indus tri al a p p a r a t u s ............... H o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s ............................ E l e c t r i c li g h t i n g and w i r i n g ................... R a d i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n re ceiving set s .......... T e l e p h o n e and t e l e g r a p h a p p a r a t u s ............ R a d i o a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n equ i p m e n t ............ E l e c t r o n i c c o m p o n e n t s ........................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s electrical p r o d u c t s ............ M o t o r v e h i c l e s .................................... Ai rcr a f t ........................................... Sh i p a n d boat b u i l d i n g and repai r ............ R a i l r o a d e q u i p m e n t ................ .............. M o t o r c y c l e s , bic yc les , and par t s .............. O t h e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment ................ S c i e n t i f i c and c o n t r o l l i n g i n s t r u m e n t s ...... M e d i c a l a n d den ta l instruments ................ O p t i c a l a n d o p h t h a l m i c e q u ipment .............. P h o t o g r a p h i c equ i p m e n t and s u p plies .......... Watch e s , clocks, and clo ck op e r a t e d d e v i c e s . J e w e l r y a n d sil v e r w a r e .......................... M u s i c a l i n s t r u m e n t s and sport i n g g o o d s ...... O t h e r m i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c t s ... Nondurables' M e a t p r o d u c t s ..................................... Da i ry p r o d u c t s .................................... C a n n e d a n d fr ozen foods ......................... G r a i n mill p r o d u c t s ............................. B a k e r y p r o d u c t s .................................. S u g a r ............................................... C o n f e c t i o n e r y p r o d u c t s .......................... A l c o h o l i c b e v e r a g e s ............................. S o f t d r i n k s and f l a v o r i n g s ..................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s foo d pr o d u c t s .................... T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r i n g ........................... Fab ric s, yarn, and thread mil l s ............... Flo o r c o v e r i n g s .................................. M i s c e l l a n e o u s t e x t i l e go o d s .................... H o s i e r y a n d knit goods .......................... A p p a r e l ............................................ M i s c e l l a n e o u s f a b r i c a t e d t e x t i l e p r o d u c t s ... P a p e r p r o d u c t s .................................... P a p e r b o a r d ........................................ 1980 1985 1990 1977 1980 1985 1990 AO. 1 A 1.9 A 1 .2 AO.6 AO. A AO.8 AO.6 A 1. 1 AO.2 A2.3 AO.7 AO.8 A 1.6 AO. A A 1. 1 A O .0 AO. 1 AO.2 39.6 39.8 38.9 A 1. 1 AO.2 39.7 AO.9 A3. 1 AO.7 39.0 AO. 1 39.2 38.9 3 A .A 39.5 39.8 AO.7 39.7 37.8 38.9 A O .0 AO.3 A 1 .3 A 1. 1 AO.5 AO. A AO.6 AO.7 AO.6 AO. 1 A 1.5 AO.7 AO.5 A 1.3 AO.2 A 1.2 AO.2 AO .0 AO .0 39.8 AO. 1 39. 1 AO.6 39.9 39.9 A 1.3 A2.5 AO. A 39.8 39.9 AO. 1 39.5 33.9 39.7 AO.3 AO.7 AO.2 38.3 39. 1 3,9. A AO.2 A 1 .2 A 1. 1 AO. A AO. A AO.6 AO.7 AO.7 A O .0 A 1 .5 AO.6 AO.5 A 1.2 AO .0 A 1 .0 AO. 1 AO .0 AO .0 39.7 AO . 1 39. 1 AO .6 39.9 39.8 A 1 .2 A2.5 AO .3 39.7 39.9 39.9 39.A 3A.0 39.7 AO .3 AO.6 AO.2 38.2 39. 1 39.3 A0.3 A 1 .3 A 1.1 A 0 .5 AO .A AO .6 A 0 .8 AO .7 A 0 .0 A 1.5 A 0 .6 A0.5 A 1.3 39.7 A0.9 A 0 .2 A 0 .0 A 0.0 39.8 A0 . 1 39. 1 A 0 .6 39.9 39.8 A 1.3 A2.6 A0.3 39.7 A 0.0 39.9 39. A 3A.2 39.7 A0.3 A0.5 A0.3 38.3 39. 1 39.3 977 2A6 518 37A 679 2AA 3 10 538 203 723 379 633 6 AA 586 92 362 A28 A68 367 A28 271 310 6 15 808 3A7 2,001 1,0 1A A69 96 53 277 331 238 1A5 275 66 163 295 A35 1, 132 255 596 A 18 723 275 350 522 2A 1 80 1 A36 70 1 688 672 105 A33 A92 5 1A 399 513 275 388 668 959 356 2,225 1,198 511 11A 73 313 3A6 267 187 319 7A 182 351 A7 1 1,313 265 635 A62 786 296 375 625 269 892 A70 779 76 A 832 103 A99 5A1 57 1 A3A 58A 28A A3 1 658 1,121 379 2, AA9 1, 161 526 127 77 A75 360 319 193 36 1 80 195 389 A67 1, A 5 1 262 6A3 A82 813 306 386 708 287 9A0 A86 825 816 989 96 5AA 57A 606 AAA 628 278 A62 637 1,257 381 2,560 1,088 5A0 13A 81 628 357 36A 190 391 81 197 AOA AA0 39.6 A 1.0 37.7 A2.3 39.3 39.7 39.6 A1 .A 39.2 A 1.2 38.5 AO.7 A 1 .5 AO.9 39.0 35.6 38.9 A2.3 A 1 .2 AO. A AO.6 38.7 A2.5 39.5 AO .6 39.8 A 1. 1 39. A A 1 .2 38.7 AO.8 A 1 .2 AO .9 38.8 36. 1 38. A A2.2 A 1. 1 AO .3 AO.6 38.7 A2.5 39. A AO .5 39.7 A 1. 1 39. A A 1. 1 38.6 AO .8 A 1.1 AO .8 38.8 36. 1 38. A A2.2 A 1.0 A0.A A0.6 38.8 A2.5 39.5 A0. A 39.8 A 1. 1 39. A A 1. 1 38.7 A0.8 A 1.2 A0.9 38.8 36.2 38. A A 2 .1 A 1.0 756 A2A 567 323 503 62 173 196 30 A 332 1A0 1,233 138 15 1 5A7 2,060 382 1,062 A65 775 362 688 326 A9A 75 185 18A 299 367 1A3 1, 150 160 175 607 2,295 A 12 1,077 A99 80 1 316 725 337 A68 7A 18A 176 319 38A 133 1, 155 187 182 635 2, A23 AA5 1, 12A 539 769 299 7A6 3AA A37 72 180 172 338 387 121 '1,1A8' 223 186 680 2,503 A82 1, 165 577 Table A -2. Continued—Average weekly hours and hours of all persons by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1977-90 H o u r s o f all p e r s o n s (in mi 1 1 ions) Average weekly hours Industry 1977 1980 1985 1990 1977 1980 1985 1990 N e w s p a p e r p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g ............ P e r i o d i c a l s a n d boo k pr inting, p u b l i s h i n g ... M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g ....... I n d u s t r i a l i n o r g a n i c and orga n i c c h e m i c a l s .. A g r i c u l t u r a l c h e m i c a l s .......................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s ............... P l a s t i c m a t e r i a l s and syn t h e t i c rub ber ...... S y n t h e t i c f i b e r s ................................. D r u g s ............................................... C l e a n i n g a n d t o i l e t p r e p a r a t i o n s ............. P a i n t s a n d a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ..................... P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and related products ..... T i r e s a n d inn er tub e s ........................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s r u b b e r p r o d u c t s ................. P l a s t i c p r o d u c t s ................................. L e a t h e r t a n n i n g a n d indu st rial lea th er ...... F o o t w e a r and oth e r le ather p r o d u c t s .......... 37.3 39.2 39.0 A 1. 1 41.8 41.1 41.8 40.2 39.9 40.0 40 . 1 41.8 43.4 40.5 39.9 39.2 37.4 37.4 39.2 39. 1 4 1.0 4 1.4 40.8 42. 1 40.3 40.2 40.3 40.2 4 1.5 43. 1 40.6 40 . 1 39.7 37.8 37.5 39.2 39. 1 40.9 41.3 40.7 42.2 40.3 40.2 40.3 40.2 41.5 43. 1 40.6 40.0 39.7 37.8 37.6 39.2 39. 1 40.9 4 1.2 40.7 42.2 40.3 40.2 40.3 40.2 41.6 43.2 40.6 40.0 39.7 37.9 791 434 1,055 739 124 184 224 211 363 260 146 454 280 369 789 51 469 902 480 1, 154 727 125 222 210 262 369 274 162 4 10 289 388 830 45 478 946 494 1, 172 778 124 239 226 3 14 411 3 11 182 398 3 16 405 897 40 448 962 502 1, 175 846 125 254 241 386 467 351 195 391 344 416 981 34 400 T r a n s p o r t a t io n • R a i l r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................ Local transit, int e r c i t y buses ................ Truck t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ............................ W a t e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ............................ Air t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .............................. P i p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................ T r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s ........................ 43.4 36.0 40.7 32.8 39. 1 40.7 38.0 44. 1 36.2 40.8 33.4 39.9 41.2 38.0 44.2 36.0 40.7 33.3 39.8 41.4 37.8 44.3 35.9 40.8 33.4 39.8 41.6 37.7 1,217 556 2,732 338 773 36 306 1,278 572 3,072 343 825 37 352 1,181 591 3,288 335 960 36 4 19 1,037 604 3,368 332 1,056 36 494 Co mm uni cat io n s : C o m m u n i c a t i o n , exce p t radio and tele v i s i o n .. R a d i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n b r o a d c a s t i n g ............ 40.3 39.3 39.2 40. 1 38.9 40.3 38.7 40.6 2, 182 331 2,295 37 1 2,373 456 2,458 532 Publi c util i t i e s : E l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s .............................. G a s u t i l i t i e s ..................................... W a t e r a n d s a n i t a r y se r v i c e s ................... 41.7 40.9 41.4 42.3 4 1.1 41.8 42.4 41.1 41.5 42.7 41.2 41.3 941 455 239 1,049 446 268 1, 135 420 313 1, 158 36 1 349 Trade: W h o l e s a l e t r a d e .................................. R e t a i 1 t r a d e ...................................... 38.9 33. 1 39. 1 32.5 38.8 31.3 38.6 30.3 10,108 27,3 57 11,209 30,127 11,760 32,660 11,819 33,885 Fin an ce, in sur ance, a n d real estate: B a n k i n g ............................................ C r e d i t a g e n c i e s a n d f i n a ncial b r o k e r s ....... I n s u r a n c e .......................................... Real e s t a t e ....................................... 36.4 37.8 37.8 36.8 36.8 37.7 37.8 36.2 36.5 37.5 37.5 35.7 36.4 37.4 37.3 35.3 2,541 1,554 3,312 2,046 2,725 1,757 3,559 2,224 3,352 2,046 3,906 2,404 3,889 2,271 4,111 2,494 Ser v ic e s : H o t e l s a n d l o d g i n g plac e s ...................... P e r s o n a l a n d r e p a i r se r v i c e s .................. B a r b e r a n d b e a u t y sho ps ........................ M i s c e l l a n e o u s b u s i n e s s s e r vices ............... A d v e r t i si ng ....................................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r o f e s s i o n a l services .......... A u t o m o b i l e r e p a i r ................................ M o t i o n p i c t u r e s .................................. A m u s e m e n t s a n d r e c r e a t i o n services ........... Doctors' a n d dentists' s e r vices ............... H o s p i t a l s .......................................... O t h e r m e d i c a l s e r v i c e s .......................... E d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s ............................ N o n p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s ........................ F o r e s t r y a n d f i s h e r y p r o d u c t s ................. A g r i c u l t u r a l , forestry, and fish e r y services P r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ............................... 32. 1 38.2 36.0 31.6 38.9 39.4 39.3 30.5 32. 1 35.2 33.6 33.2 35. 1 31.1 34.7 33.7 22.7 32.2 37.3 35.3 31.3 37.5 38.7 38.3 30.6 32.4 34.4 33.3 33.0 34.5 31.1 34.3 33.3 22. 8 31.4 36.7 34.4 30.5 36.9 37.8 37.5 30.2 31.5 33.4 32.5 32.2 33.7 30.4 33.4 33. 1 22.6 30.7 36.6 33.9 29.8 36.7 37. 1 37. 1 29.8 30.8 32.6 31.8 31.4 33. 1 29.7 32.9 33.0 22.4 1,979 2,445 728 3,846 435 3, 169 1,913 327 1,170 2,332 4,547 2, 168 2,607 3,338 74 448 2,258 2,221 2,453 787 4,539 421 3,314 2,049 355 1,384 2,523 5,080 2,750 2,76 1 3,723 74 502 1,901 2,554 2,424 822 5,687 424 3,794 2, 141 37 1 1,526 2,872 6,151 3,728 2,995 4,0 17 78 575 1,699 2,791 2,367 837 6,800 4 18 4, 188 2, 195 37 1 1,620 3, 188 7, 122 4,994 3.069 4, 132 78 629 1,519 Table A-3. Factors affecting changes in em ploym ent, 1977-90 (In th o u s a n d s ) Indus t r y Total p r i v a t e ...................................... Total change, 1977-90 22,582 Cha n g e a t t r i b u t a b l e toOutput 39,667 Produc tivity Average week ly hours -20, 129 2,439 Agri c u l t u r e : Dai ry and p o u l t r y p r o d u c t s ...................... Meat a n i m a l s and livestock ...................... Cotton ............................................... Food and feed gra i n s .............................. Oth er a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s ...................... - 104 -54 8 23 -161 33 95 50 209 111 -178 -189 -52 -234 -349 41 41 10 47 77 Mi ni ngt Iron and f e r r o a l l o y or e s m i n i n g ................ Copper ore m i n i n g ................................. Oth er n o n f e r r o u s ore m i n i n g ..................... Coal m i n i n g ......................................... Crude p e t r o l e u m a n d natural gas ................ Sto ne and clay m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g ........... Che mi cal and f e r t i l i z e r m i n e r a l m i n i n g ....... 1 22 -0 121 15 -0 -8 18 36 15 160 43 35 -0 - 16 - 12 - 15 -43 -29 -34 -8 -1 -2 0 5 -0 -1 -0 Co nst ruct ion '■ New r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n ......... New n o n r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n q c o n s t r u c t i o n ..... New p u b l i c u t i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................ New h i g h w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n ......................... All o t h e r new c o n s t r u c t i o n ...................... Oil a n d gas well d r i l l i n g and e x p l o r a t i o n .... M a i n t e n a n c e and r e p a i r c o n s t r u c t i o n ........... 305 349 225 -2 -34 55 233 7 19 464 242 38 25 84 28 1 -4 12 - 1 16 -20 -40 -57 -29 -46 -1 0 2 0 -2 -0 -1 Ma nuf actu ri n g : Durables: Or d n a n c e ............................................ Compl e t e g u i d e d m i s s i l e s ......................... Loggi ng .............................................. Sawmi l l s and p l a n i n g m i l l s ...................... Mil lwo rk , plywood, and other w o o d p r o d u c t s ... Woode n c o n t a i n e r s ................................. Hou s e h o l d f u r n i t u r e ............................... Other f u r n i t u r e and f i x t u r e s .................... Glass ................................................ Cement and c o n c r e t e p r o d u c t s .................... St ru ctural clay p r o d u c t s ......................... Pottery and r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s .................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s ston e and clay p r o d u c t s ......... B l a s t .f u r n a c e s and ba s i c steel p r o d u c t s ...... Iron and steel f o u n d r i e s and f o r g i n g s ......... Primary copper and c o p p e r p r o d u c t s ............ Primary a l u m i n u m and a l u m i n u m p r o d u c t s ....... Other p r i m a r y n o n f e r r o u s p r o d u c t s .............. Metal c o n t a i n e r s ................................... H e a ting a p p a r a t u s and p l u m b i n g f i x t u r e s ...... -7 5 -1 1 -42 107 -7 128 38 33 32 -18 1 18 9 65 37 26 15 15 2 14 18 15 -1 25 1 -4 275 78 95 98 -6 8 23 205 123 73 68 42 38 39 -20 -13 -25 -4 1 -141 -3 - 144 -40 -60 -67 - 11 -8 -6 -196 -58 -38 -43 -24 -23 -36 -1 0 -1 1 -4 0 -4 0 -2 1 -0 1 0 -0 -0 2 0 -2 0 -1 Table A-3. Continued-Factors affecting changes in employm ent, 1977-90 (I n t h o u s a n d s ) C h a n g e a t t r i b u t a b l e toIndustry F a b r i c a t e d s t r uctural met al ..................... Scr e w mach i n e p r o d u c t s ........................... Met al stampings .................................... Cutlery, handt oo ls, and general h a r d w a r e ..... Oth er f a b r i c a t e d metal p r o d u c t s ................ Engines, tur bin es , and g e n e r a t o r s ............. Farm m a c h i n e r y ..................................... Co nst ruction, mining , and o i l f i e l d m a c h i n e r y . Material h a n d l i n g e q u i p m e n t ..................... Met al w o r k i n g m a c h i n e s ........................... Sp eci al indus tr y m a c h i n e r y ...................... Ge ner al industrial m a c h i n e r y .................... M a c h i n e shop p r o d u c t s ............................ C o m p u t e r s and p e r i p h e r a l e q u i p m e n t ............ T y p e w r i t e r s and other office e q u i p m e n t ....... S e r vice indu st ry m a c h i n e s ....................... Elect r i c t r a n s m i s s i o n e q u i p m e n t ................ El ectrical ind us trial a p p a r a t u s ................ H o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s .............................. El ect ric l i g htinq and w i r i n g .................... Rad io and t e l e v i s i o n r e c e i v i n g sets ........... T e l e p h o n e and t e l e g r a p h a p p a r a t u s ............. Rad io and c o m m u n i c a t i o n e q u i p m e n t ............. E l e c tronic c o m p o n e n t s ............................ M i s c e l l a n e o u s e l e c t r i c a l p r o d u c t s ............. Mot o r v e h icles ..................................... A i r craft ............................................ Sh ip and boat b u i l d i n q and repair .............. R a i l r o a d equ i p m e n t ................................ M o t o rcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s ............... Other t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u i p m e n t ................. S c i e n t i f i c and c o n t r o l l i n g i n s t r u m e n t s ....... Medic al and dent al i n s t r u m e n t s ................. Op tic al and o p h t h a l m i c e q u i p m e n t ............... P h o t o g r a p h i c e q u i p m e n t and s u p p l i e s ........... Wa tches , clocks, and cloc k o p e r a t e d d e v i c e s .. J e w e l r y and s i l v e r w a r e ........................... Musical inst r u m e n t s and s p o r t i n g goods ....... Oth er m i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c t s .... Nondurables: Me at products ...................................... Dai ry p r o d u c t s ...................................................................................... Cann e d and frozen fo o d s .......................... Gra in mill p r o d u c t s ............................... Bake r y p r o d u c t s ................................................................................... Suq ar ............................................................................................................... C o n f e c t i o n e r y p r o d u c t s ............................................................... A l c o h o l i c b e v e r a g e s ............................... Soft drinks and f l a v o r i n g s ...................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s food p r o d u c t s ..................... T o b acco m a n u f a c t u r i n g ............................ Fabrics, yarn, and thr e a d m i l l s ................ Flo or c o v e r i n g s ................................................................................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s t e x t i l e g o o d s ................................................. H o s i e r y and knit g o o d s ............................................................... Ap par el .......................................................................................................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s f a b r i c a t e d t e x t i l e p r o d u c t s .... Pap er pr o d u c t s ..................................... P a p e r b o a r d .......................................... Tot al change, 1977-90 Out p u t 225 9 59 52 64 30 35 82 41 107 51 93 82 200 2 87 71 67 37 94 3 74 13 216 14 263 40 30 19 13 170 16 60 21 56 7 16 53 6 445 18 128 104 100 64 87 1 12 78 188 109 172 138 300 19 169 143 139 123 137 1 17 145 66 456 73 484 266 99 41 33 162 48 55 29 1 11 26 64 120 108 - 1 -57 81 9 -33 4 3 -10 16 26 -10 -4 1 40 16 67 2 18 52 49 53 80 13 136 32 15 8 14 44 62 83 7 140 82 45 233 69 1 131 210 123 Produc tivity -219 -11 -69 -52 -36 -35 -51 -32 -37 -87 -58 -81 -57 - 104 -17 -82 -73 -73 -85 -4 1 - 1 13 -72 -55 -239 -57 -231 -230 -64 -23 - 19 10 -33 6 -7 -55 - 18 -46 -66 -104 -73 -72 -47 -22 -47 -3 - 11 -55 -45 -58 -16 -180 -42 -28 -167 -452 -8 1 -163 -7 1 Average weekly hours -2 1 0 1 0 0 -1 2 0 5 0 2 2 3 0 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -1 1 2 - 1 -2 9 4 -5 0 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 - 1 3 -8 2 -9 - 1 -1 -1 -0 0 - 1 0 -0 - 1 0 0 1 -21 2 . 1 1 Table A-3. C o ntinued-Factors affecting changes in em ploym ent, 1977-90 (In th o u s a n d s ) C h a n g e a t t r i b u t a b l e toTot al cha nge, 1977-90 Industry Output Produc tivity Average weekly ho u r s N e w s p a p e r p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g .............. P e r i o d i c a l s a n d book print in g, p u b l i s h i n g .... M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g ......... In dustrial in o r g a n i c and o r g a n i c c h e m i c a l s ... A g r i c u l t u r a l c h e m i c a l s ........................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s chemi c a l p r o d u c t s ................ P l a s t i c m a t e r i a l s and s y n t h e t i c rubber ....... S y n t h e t i c f i b e r s ................................... Dr ugs ................................................ Cl e a n i n g and toi l e t p r e p a r a t i o n s ............... Pain t s and a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ...................... P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s ...... Tir es and inner tub e s ............................ M i s c e l l a n e o u s rubb e r p r o d u c t s ................... Plastic p r o d u c t s ................................... Leathe r t a n n i n g and ind us trial leat h e r ....... Footwear a n d ot h e r leather p r o d u c t s ........... 84 33 57 52 1 34 7 83 49 43 23 -29 29 22 91 -9 -38 151 79 134 191 17 76 20 124 96 76 62 9 75 67 133 -2 30 -63 -46 -75 -140 -16 -43 -12 -40 -46 -32 -38 -38 -46 -45 -4 1 -6 -65 T r a n s p o r t a t io n : R a i l r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .......................... Local tra ns it, int e r c i t y bus e s ................. Truck t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .............................. Water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ..... ........................ Air t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ................................ Pi p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .......................... T r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s .......................... -89 26 297 -6 131 -0 97 256 149 626 123 317 7 133 -331 -123 -327 -125 -178 -6 -37 -14 0 -3 -4 -8 -0 1 Communi cati on s! Communic a t i o n , exc e p t radi o and t e l e v i s i o n ... Rad io and t e l e v i s i o n b r o a d c a s t i n g ............. 180 90 840 164 -689 -68 28 -7 Publi c utilities^ Electric u t i l i t i e s ................................ Ga s u t i l i t i e s ...................................... Water and s a n i t a r y s e r v i c e s ..................... 88 -46 52 339 -24 57 -238 -20 -6 -13 -2 0 Trade': W h o l e s a l e tr a d e .................................... R e t a i 1 t r a d e .................................... 897 5,5 65 2,537 9,102 -1,676 -4,750 36 1,213 Finance, insu ran ce , a n d real estate! B a n k i n g .............................................. Credit a g e n c i e s a n d fin a n c i a l b r o k e r s ......... In s u r a n c e ........................................... Real e s t a t e ......................................... 712 377 430 289 946 463 7 19 688 -234 -93 -305 -434 -0 8 16 35 562 13 86 2,0 44 948 200 69 2,255 19 640 569 93 278 1,021 2,294 1,278 266 6 18 13 73 208 -429 -236 42 49 25 128 13 95 43 Servi ces: Hotels a n d l o d g i n g p l a c e s ....................... Barber and b e a u t y shops .......................... M i s c e l l a n e o u s b u s i n e s s s e r v i c e s ................ Adve rt i si ng ....... ........................ ........ M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v i c e s ........... A u t o m o b i l e rep a i r ................................. Moti o n p i c t u r e s .................................... A m u s e m e n t s a n d r e c r e a t i o n s e r v i c e s ............ Doctors' and den ti sts' s e r v i c e s ................ H o s p i t a l s ........................................... Other m e d i c a l s e r v i c e s ........................... E d u c ational s e r v i c e s .............................. Non p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s .......................... Fores t r y a n d f i s h e r y p r o d u c t s ................... Agr i c u l t u r a l , for est ry , a n d f i s h e r y s e r v i c e s . P r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ................................ 4 626 202 33 310 607 1,703 1,80 1 355 609 5 110 14 -8 -339 -27 -110 -410 -64 1 -495 -713 432 -1 -104 -10 31 -202 -4 -0 -1 1 1 1 -1 -0 -1 -1 -0 1 1 -0 -1 -0 -3 4 31 80 122 91 90 94 2 5 9 Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to 1990 With lower taxes; unemployment, and inflation, the Bureau's latest projections show consumers buying more durable goods, businesses investing in more energy-efficient, environmentally-safe equipment, and government's GNP share declining; foreign trade is expected to be in balance by 1990 A rthur A n d r ea ssen The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of the U.S. economy estimate that by 1990 and services, as well as projected output and employment by industry.1 This article presents the long-term trends of demand’s four major components—personal con sumption, investment, net exports, and govern ment purchases. It also shows how total projected demand is distributed by industry and briefly presents projections based on an alternative set of assumptions. The table on page 41 of this issue includes actual or projected levels, distribution, and rates of change of the components of GNP for selected years. • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will continue to be the largest component o f gross national product (GNP), increasing its share to 67.6 percent, with purchases o f durable goods increasing faster than purchases o f nondurables and services; • Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) will increase slightly its portion o f GNP, spurred mainly by more business investment in equipment and by increased hpusehold formation by adults o f the post-World-War-II baby boom; • the foreign trade accounts will be balanced in current dollars, as exports o f capital goods offset oil and gas imports and as economies in less developed countries strengthen to support the purchase o f U.S. products; and Assumptions: laying the groundwork The output of an economy is determined by the supply of its factors of production. An economy will produce at its maximum if the level of demand for goods and services is enough to support such production and if fiscal, monetary, and trade policies do not prohibit the full use of resources. Over a projected period, an economy’s major factor of production is its labor force. Therefore, to project future levels of output it is necessary to estimate the proportion of the present population that will be in the work force and the proportion that will be employed. For its projections to 1990, the Bureau derived output levels by first setting • government purchases will continue to decrease as a share of GNP, reaching 15.5 percent, as Federal purchases slow and as State and local purchases ebb with lower demand for education and for highway construction. Based on a set of assumptions concerning future economic conditions and policy, these projections supersede earlier projections for the 1980—85 period and present new estimates to 1990. Overall, the projections comprise final demand for goods Arthur Andreassen is an economist in the Office o f Economic Growth, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. 46 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990 target rates of unemployment consistent with the Administration’s near-term objectives, followed by high employment levels over the longer term. GNP growth was assumed to increase fast enough to allow unemployment to fall to 4.7 percent by 1985 and 4.5 percent by 1990 (from 7.0 percent in 1977). However, output was assumed to grow increasing ly slower over the projected period as a result of the drop in the growth rate of the civilian labor force from 2.3 percent per year from 1975 to 1980, to 1.1 percent per year from 1985 to 1990. This decline was not expected to be offset by an increase in the growth rate of either productivity or hours paid. These projections start at a point, 1977, when the economy was emerging from the severest recession since the Great Depression. The impact of high energy prices and unusually high rates of inflation tempered the recovery. The rapidity with which an economy returns to levels of full employment is dependent on the growth of demand, and much of demand is a function of personal income. BLS assumed that, over the 1977-90 period, the percent of personal income that would go toward Federal income taxes would drop to 10.5 percent from 11.1 percent. Further, it was assumed that the rate of inflation as measured by the GNP deflator would gradually fall from 6.2 percent during 1975-80 to 4.6 percent during 1985-90. No additional restric tions governing imports, over the existing quotas on textiles, shoes, and color television sets, were assumed. Certain major assumptions were made concern ing energy. Energy usage was projected to increase at a rate of 1.3 percent per year from 1973 to 1980, less than one-third the 5.0 percent of 1963 to 1973. From 1980 to 1985, the growth rate of energy usage was assumed to recover to 3.3 percent per year, a rate not as high as the pre-embargo period, due to the expected higher energy prices over the latter period. From 1985 to 1990, the growth in usage was projected to be 2.9 percent due mainly to slower economic growth. Over the projected period, the prices of natural gas and oil were expected to rise faster than coal and electricity. Along with these relative price movements, natural gas was assumed to be less available than during 1963-73, and utilities were expected to shift to coal, oil, and nuclear fuel. Petroleum’s share of energy was assumed to increase to 38.5 percent from 37.4 percent over 1973-80, then begin to decline to a share equal to 1973’s by 1990. This decrease in petroleum’s share was assumed to result from oil’s expected higher 47 price relative to coal and electricity, from a change in Government regulations, and from fear of possible future embargos. Demographic shifts have a major impact on the economy. Along with slower growth of GNP due to the slow growth of the labor force, a changing distribution of GNP by sector and industry will reflect the changing age composition of the population. From 1977 to 1990, the fastest-growing age group will be those 25 to 44 years old, which will increase from 57 million to 78 million. The effect of this growth will be tempered by the stability of the 45- to 64-year-old group, which will remain at about 45 million, and by the decline in the number of persons ages 16 to 24 which will drop from 37 million to 31 million over the 1977 to 1990 period. The number of persons age 16 years and under will remain around 57 million, while the number over 64 will increase to 30 million from 23 million.2 Personal consumption expenditures During 1977-90, the largest component of GNP, personal consumption expenditures, (PCE), is expected to continue to increase its share of GNP as it has done over the postwar period. In 1952, PCE represented 58.6 percent of GNP, while, by 1990, it is expected to be 67.6 percent. This increase will be abetted by the projected slowing in the growth of the share of personal income devoted to both Federal and State and local taxes, as well as by the continuous drop in the savings rate from 7.0 percent during most of the 1970’s to 6.0 percent by 1990. The projected level of PCE is higher than the 66.5 percent reached in 1976, when PCE made the strongest recovery of all final-demand sectors from the cyclical low of early 1975. PCE displays the least variation of the four demand sectors over business cycles, having a postwar drop in its growth rate only once, in 1974. However, greater variation will be displayed by the three major components of PCE—durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. Continuing trends begun in 1951, purchases of durable goods and services are projected to increase faster than GNP, while purchases of nondurable goods will increase at a slower rate. Furniture leads durables’ climb. Durable goods are generally high-priced goods that provide long periods of service, and their purchase can be more easily delayed during hard times than can be the purchases of low-priced but frequently purchased items. Durable goods purchases vary the most over the business cycle, reacting similarly in direction and timing with changes in nonresidential invest- Eating out high on nondurables' list. Nondurable purchases, the largest of the three PCE compo nents, has displayed little variation over the business cycle, experiencing a year-to-year decline in growth only once—from 1973 to 1974—from 1951 to 1976. During this period, this component decreased in its share of PCE from a high of 48.8 percent, attained in 1952, to 38.5 percent in 1977. Nondurables will account for 35.4 percent of PCE by 1990. The largest nondurable product class is food consumed in the home, which has accounted for more than 60 percent of nondurables since 1951. Because most of the U.S. population enjoys an adequate diet, increases in income levels have relatively less effect on households’ food purchas es, and these will grow only slightly faster than the population—1.9 percent per year—the same rate as from 1960 to 1977. Food consumed away from home does vary significantly with personal income. Therefore, because of the continued increase in real income, the amount of food consumed away from home will increase faster than total nondurable purchas es over the 1977-90 period—at 2.3 percent per year, versus the 1.9-percent rate of 1960 to 1977. Consumer expenditures for clothing, another item that shows larger than average income elasticity, will grow 4.0 percent per year from 1977 to 1990, up from the 3.1-percent annual rate of 1951-77. Along with rising income levels, a major source of demand for clothing will be the increase in the number of persons age 25 to 44 years who purchase large quantities of clothes. The projected rate of increase in consumer purchases of gasoline and oil will be 2.9 percent per year slower than the 3.8-percent rate of 196077. This reduction is based on an increase in ment. Purchases of durable goods drop sharply during economic downturns and rise rapidly during recoveries—a pattern which can be seen over the 1961-65 period. This will be the 1977-80 pattern, with durables increasing rapidly from the already high level of 1976. The durable goods component comprises three major product classes: motor vehicles and parts, furniture and household equipment, and other durables. Motor vehicles and parts, at present, the largest component of the three, is projected to grow the slowest, 4.5 percent per year from 1977 to 1990, yet faster than GNP. This slowdown from the 5.2-percent rate of 1963-76 is expected to result from diminished demand as population growth slows and the average age increases and from a shift to smaller, less expensive cars as fuel prices rise. In addition to a slow growth in auto output, an increase in the service lives of tires and batteries is expected to result in slower growth in these products—2.2 percent per year from 1977 to 1990, down from the 5.3-percent rate of 1960-77 (tables 1 and 2). Furniture and household equipment is projected to grow 5.6 percent per year 1977-90, fueled by expenditures on furniture, appliances, and other household durables. A rapid increase from 1977 to 1985 in these items is expected due to the rapid increase projected in housing. Expenditures on radios and televisions are expected to grow at a 2.5-percent rate during 1985-90—down from the 5.8-percent rate of 1976-85, as a result of market saturation. Other durable goods include primarily motorcy cles and bicycles and are projected to grow 6.5 percent per year over 1977-90, continuing the healthy growth rate of 6.8 percent from 1967 to 1977. Table 1. Personal consumption expenditures, actual and projected, selected years 1959—90 [Amounts in billions of 1972 dollars] ■»--------- « d la ^ H ii d ln ■ rSTCwiI CHVtnDUuOfi Amount ExpendNurt 1959 Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s................................... Durables ....................................... M otor vehicles and parts . . . . Furniture and household equipment ........... O ther d u ra b le s......................... N ondurables................................. Food ......................................... Clothing ................................... Gas and o il ............................. Fuel o il and coal ................... O ther nondurables ................. Services ....................................... H o using ..................................... Household o p e ra tio n ............... Transportation ......................... Other s e rv ic e s ......................... 1963 1(69 1973 1977 1990 1995 1990 1959 1963 1969 1973 1977 1990 1985 1990 441.5 51.8 24.4 501.4 60.7 29.7 633.4 88.2 40.2 767.7 121.8 54.6 857.7 137.8 61.0 966.5 160.3 69.2 1,184.4 207.3 86.7 1,428.7 262.7 106.2 100.0 11.7 5.5 100.0 12.1 5.9 100.0 13.9 6.3 100.0 15.9 7.1 100.0 16.0 7.1 100.0 16.6 7.2 100.0 17.5 7.3 100.0 18.4 7.6 20.0 7.4 205.0 114.4 36.3 13.7 5.2 35.5 184.7 60.9 26.4 16.3 61.0 22.7 8.3 223.0 120.7 39.6 15.3 4.9 42.5 217.6 74.0 30.9 18.1 94.6 34.9 13.1 270.2 142.0 48.6 19.6 5.7 54.3 275.0 93.6 39.4 22.9 119.0 49.9 17.3 309.3 150.6 59.2 25.5 6.7 67.3 336.5 117.7 48.1 27.5 143.2 56.6 20.2 330.4 165.1 66.6 26.6 5.6 66.4 389.5 140.3 55.4 30.8 158.9 67.8 23.4 368.1 179.1 75.2 28.5 6.1 79.2 438.1 159.3 61.7 35.5 181.5 89.9 30.7 436.1 204.4 92.0 34.9 6.9 98.0 540.9 196.2 76.9 44.8 223.0 115.4 39.0 505.5 229.3 110.5 38.5 7.8 119.5 660.5 237.6 97.0 54.9 271.0 4.5 1.7 46.4 25.9 8.2 3.1 1.2 8.0 41.8 13.8 6.0 3.7 18.3 4.5 1.7 44.5 24.1 7.9 3.1 1.0 8.5 43.4 14.8 6.2 3.6 18.9 5.5 2.1 42.7 22.4 7.7 3.1 .9 8.6 43.4 14.8 6.2 3.6 18.8 6.5 2.3 40.3 19.6 7.7 3.3 .9 8.8 43.8 15.3 6.3 3.6 18.7 6.6 2.4 38.5 19.2 7.8 3.1 .7 7.7 45.4 16.4 6.5 3.6 18.5 7.0 2.4 38.1 18.5 7.8 2.9 .6 8.2 45.5 16.5 6.4 3.7 18.8 7.6 2.6 36.8 17.3 7.8 2.9 .6 8.3 45.7 16.6 6.5 3.8 18.8 8.1 2.7 35.4 16.0 7.7 2.7 .5 8.4 46.2 16.6 6.8 3.8 19.0 48 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990 expected due to homeowner conservation aided by better insulation of homes, appliances with in creased energy efficiency, and less heating and cooling of homes throughout the year. Consumer purchases of services of physicians, dentists, and private hospitals will increase faster than average. Table 2. Personal consumption expenditures, average annual rates of changes, actual and projected, 1959—90 1951 Expenditure Personal consumption expenditures . . . D u ra b le s ......................... M otor vehicles and parts ................. Furniture and household equipment Other d urab le e ........... N ondurables................. Food ........................... Clothing . . Gas and o il ............... Fuel o il and coal . . . O ther nondurables . . Services ......................... Housing . . . Household operation . Transportation ........... O ther s e rv ic e s ........... 190 190 1973 1977 190 109 1977 196) 190 1973 1977 190 190 190 190 3.2 4.0 4.8 7.8 3.9 6.7 2.8 3.1 4.1 5.2 4.2 5.3 3.8 4.9 4.0 5.1 5.0 6.2 6.3 2.8 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.5 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.3 2.2 2.8 -1.5 4.6 4.2 5.0 4.0 2.7 4.0 9.0 9.6 3.9 3.3 4.2 5.1 3.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 7.4 5.7 2.7 1.2 4.0 5.4 3.3 4.4 4.1 4.7 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.2 4.0 1.7 2.3 3.0 1.1 -4.3 -.3 3.7 4.5 3.6 2.9 2.6 6.2 5.0 3.7 2.8 4.1 2.3 2.9 6.1 4.0 4.3 3.7 4.8 4.5 5.8 5.6 3.4 2.7 4.1 4.2 2.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.2 5.1 4.9 3.0 2.3 3.7 2.0 2.5 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.8 4.1 4.0 5.6 5.2 3.3 2.6 4.0 2.9 2.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.2 to to to to to to to to Gross private dom estic investment Demand for investment goods shows the great est variability of all GNP sectors over the business cycle. Investment comprises four components: business equipment, business structures, residential structures, and net change in business inventories. During the 1974-75 downturn, private investment experienced the largest drop for the longest period since 1951. In the early stages of the present upturn, investment did not react in the typical fashion of increasing faster than GNP; rather, it declined throughout 1976. However, from 1976 to 1980 investment is projected to increase 7.7 percent per year and, from 1980 to 1985, at 4.2percent rates—both faster than that of GNP. As the economy maintains an unemployment rate of 4.5 percent from 1985 to 1990, investment growth will slow down to 3.0 percent per year. The following tabulation shows the percent distribution of GPDI components for selected years 1963-90, actual and projected: purchases of fuel-efficient autos and a drop in demand caused by gasoline prices, which will increase more rapidly than the prices of other goods. Personal consumption expenditures for the remaining nondurables—drugs, toiletries, and cleaning and polishing products—will continue their healthy growth of the past. Services coast as housing booms. The remaining major PCE component, services, showed the most stability over the 1951-77 period, with a continu ous annual growth rate usually equal to or greater than GNP. From a share of 40.0 percent of PCE in 1953, services increased to 45.4 percent by 1977, and they will increase to 46.2 percent by 1990. Housing, the largest product class within servic es, includes the imputed rental value of owneroccupied dwellings and the rent paid by tenants. Due to an expected rapid increase in household formation and home purchases, housing expendi tures will accelerate rapidly through 1985, at an annual rate of 4.3 percent. Projections for other PCE services vary. Con sumer purchases of telephone communications will continue their rapid growth at a rate of 6.9 percent per year from 1977 to 1990. Purchases of airline transportation and foreign travel will both increase more than 5.5 percent, compared with their 8.0percent and 4.4-percent growth rates of 1960 to 1977 due to rapid income growth. Demand for electric utilities will grow 4.5 percent per year from 1977 to 1990, down from the 7.0 percent prior to the quadrupling of oil prices in 1973. Purchases of natural gas from utilities will grow at 1.8 percent per year—down from the 2.6-percent rate of 196077—because homes are expected to use electricity rather than gas. Lower total energy usage is 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 Total ..................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonresidential .......... 59.5 68.3 63.8 67.4 64.7 Equipment ............ 34.8 41.4 41.9 47.8 46.4 Structure ................ 24.7 26.9 21.9 19.6 18.3 Residential ................ 34.2 23.8 28.2 25.0 27.3 Change in business 6.2 7.9 8.0 7.6 8.0 inventories ............ 100.0 68.2 48.6 19.6 24.9 Investment 6.9 Business to invest in better machines. By 1990, business investment in plant and equipment is projected to increase its share of GNP from the 1951-76 low of 9.4 percent in 1976 to 10.7 percent—a share equal to that which it held from 1965 to 1974. Investment in equipment is projected to be a major force in this upturn, rising from 6.4 percent of GNP in 1976 to 7.6 percent by 1990. Increased equipment investment will result from new needs for equipment to control pollution, the need to shift from equipment that uses scarce energy sources to types that use more plentiful sources such as coal, and the replacement of energy-inefficient machines. Along with these considerations are specific investment goods for which demand grows more strongly than for others due to more rapid output growth and to the 49 concomitant need for investment to produce this output. Table 3 shows annual growth rates, projected or actual, of equipment investment, for selected periods, 1963-90. Railroad equipment is projected to have an average annual growth rate from 1973 to 1990 of 4.5 percent—up from the 2.9-percent rate of 1963—73—as a result of increased output of coal and the need to transport it. As a result of increased petroleum mining on the outer-continen tal shelf, the shipbuilding and boatbuilding indus try, which includes offshore drilling rigs, is expect ed to grow 7.1 percent per year from 1973 to 1990, compared with the 8.9-percent rate of 1963-73. Investment in computers is projected to have the largest average annual growth during 1973-90— 7.5 percent—a rate less than the 13.3-percent rate of 1963-73, but still maintaining rapid growth little affected by cyclical movements. Business investment in plant, the other major component of business investment, is projected to grow more slowly than investment in equipment, 2.1 percent per year from 1973 to 1990. This deceleration will result from a decreased need for private schools brought on by the diminishing population of school-age children. Contributing further to this slow growth will be the post-Alaskan oil pipeline decrease in construction and a slowing of public utilities construction as growth in demand for utilities diminishes. Investment output ratios relate industry invest ment levels to industry output levels. Industries with ratios increasing faster than average are expected to be nonferrous ores mining, chemical and fertilizer mineral mining, and lumber, as these industries expand capacity and as natural resourc es become more difficult to extract. Growth in the plastics industry is expected to be less than average, as excess capacity is worked off. The forestry and fishery industry is expected to have rapid investment growth as the U.S. fishing fleet increasingly takes advantage of the opportunities offered by the 200-mile limit. Residential boom to wane. Residential construction is projected to grow faster than GNP at 5.9 percent per year, causing the share of GNP devoted to these purchases to rise from 3.7 percent in 1976 to 4.3 percent in 1985. This growth should result from both a cyclical upturn from the low 1976 level and the demographic changes as the baby boom cohorts of the late 1940’s and the 1950’s reach middle age. From a level of 55 million persons in 1976, the population between 25 and 44 years of age will increase to about 72 million in 1985. An increase in rental units and in the sales of mobile homes that replace some single-family home urchases will somewhat temper the growth in ome purchases. From 1985 to 1990, the annual growth in residential investment will drop to 1.1 ercent, as the impact of the baby boom on ousehold formation begins to wane. Inventories in balance. Because inventories are a function of the sales of each industry, continuous growth in industry output should enable industries to keep inventories in good balance. Therefore, inventory increases brought on by either precau tionary stockpiling, caused by such fears of shortages as occurred in 1972-73, or by decreased sales as occurred in 1974-75, are not projected for 1977-90. Table 3. Gross private domestic investment, actual and projected, selected years 1963—90 [Amounts in billions of 1972 dollars] Avtragt tnnud rtlM of chMQt Amount hnwSMnt Total . Nonresidential investment Equipment Furniture and fixtures Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery Computer and peripheral equipment Electric transmission equipment Telephone and telegraph apparatus ___ Radio and communication equipment ... Motor vehicles Aircraft . Railroad equipment Structures New nonresidential building construction New public utilities Residential Change in business inventories . 1913 1987 1973 1990 199S 1987 1973 1980 1995 1973 1987 1973 1980 1985 1990 1990 to to to to to to 124.5 74.2 43.3 1.7 152.7 104.3 63.2 2.2 207.2 132.2 86.7 2.7 233.0 157.1 111.4 3.2 286.0 185.1 132.7 3.8 331.0 226.0 161.0 4.6 5.2 8.9 9.9 7.2 5.2 4.0 5.4 3.6 1.7 2.5 3.6 2.4 4.2 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.8 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.1 2.5 3.1 4.6 5.3 6.8 8.1 5.6 6.7 2.1 5.1 3.5 3.4 T.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 7.5 .6 1.2 30.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 10.9 2.9 2.2 41.1 3.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 20.9 2.5 1.6 45.5 7.2 3.1 3.7 3.4 22.9 2.1 2.1 45.7 9.5 3.8 4.4 4.0 24.8 2.9 2.7 52.4 12.7 4.6 5.4 4.9 27.1 3.7 3.5 65.0 20.9 9.0 10.8 9.7 10.0 48.6 15.7 7.4 8.5 3.8 5.8 5.8 11.4 -2.7 -4.8 1.7 10.1 2.6 4.4 4.0 1.3 -2.2 3.5 .1 5.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.6 6.3 5.3 2.8 6.0 4.3 4.2 3.8 1.8 5.1 5.2 4.4 7.5 3.4 4.1 3.8 1.5 2.4 4.7 2.1 19.1 6.8 42.6 7.8 25.2 9.9 36.4 12.0 25.8 13.4 58.5 16.5 24.1 13.9 58.3 17.6 27.5 15.9 78.0 22.9 34.4 20.1 82.4 22.7 7.3 10.1 -3.9 (') .4 5.1 8.2 (') -1.0 .5 0 (') 2.7 2.8 6.0 C) 4.6 4.8 1.1 (') 1.7 2.4 2.0 (') ' Not meaningful 1990 19S3 50 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990 Foreign trade R eflecting the c o n tin u o u s e co n o m ic interdependence of the nations of the world, both exports and imports are projected to increase faster than GNP over the 1973-90 period. Exports are projected to rise to a level of 8.2 percent of GNP by 1990, the highest level attained over the 1951— 90 period. Imports are projected to climb to a 6.9percent level, also a high for this time span. In current dollars, it is projected that the trade sector will be approximately in balance. However, the trade sector will not be in balance in constant (1972) dollars. Because the price of oil has increased much faster than the general price level since 1972, a current-dollar zero trade balance will translate into a trade surplus—a $25-billion export surplus by 1990 (table 4). Food and feed grains .......... . . . C o tto n .............................................. . . . Aircraft ....................................... . . . Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery ___ . . . 1973 19 9 0 P ercen t change 22 22 22 13 26 33 -41 18 50 24 30 25 High fu el imports to continue. Imports of crude petroleum and natural gas will grow faster than total imports and much faster than this industry’s total output. Following are import proportions of output for selected large importing industries for 1973, as projected for 1990 and the percent change, 1973-90: In du stry Crude petroleum and natural gas ........................... Motorcycles ........................... . . . . M otorvehicles......................... Office equipment .................. . . . . Leather footwear .................. . . . . Exports on the rise. In general, exports can be expected to increase through the early 1980’s as the growth rates of other developed countries increase, raising their economies to levels of employment higher than present levels, thus increasing their demand for U.S. goods. Also, the oil-producing nations are expected to continue to spend their oil receipts on capital goods, a market in which the United States has a competitive advantage. The fastest growing export industry over the 1973-90 period is projected to be the watches and clocks industry, from which exports are expected to increase more than five times by 1990. This acceleration assumes a continuation of the growth spurred by electronic digital watches in 1975. Telephone and telegraph exports will be the next fastest growing industry, with exports increasing to a level by 1990 3.6 times that of 1973, as a result of increased use of communications systems by less developed countries. Other industries in which exports are expected to more than triple are tires, computers, household appliances, and photograph ic equipment. As a percentage of industry output, exports will increase more rapidly in the processed and finished goods industries than in the food industries. The following tabulation shows, for selected industries, exports as a percentage of industry output in 1973, as projected for 1990, and the percentage change between the two years: In dustry The decrease in the export portion of food and feed grains reflects a return to more normal export levels from those of 1972 and 1973, when large sales of grain were made to Russia after poor weather there reduced Soviet grain crops. Aircraft exports will increase as a result of the replacement of aging original jet passenger aircraft by new energy-efficient models. 1973 1990 P ercen t change 17 50 12 29 29 33 50 12 39 39 94 0 0 35 100 Other nonferrous mining, which includes baux ite, is the industry with the largest proportion of imported output; however, imports will decrease from 56.6 percent in 1973 to 54.9 percent by 1990. Imports of radios and television sets are projected to grow as fast as the industry’s total output, maintaining the 29-percent share of 1973. Imports should continue to grow during the 1980’s in spite of the recently concluded agreement with Japan. That agreement limits the number of color televi sion sets sent to the United States, but these sets are only 10 percent of the industry’s output and are more than compensated for by the expected increase in the importance of other television equipment, such as video tape recorders. Import growth in such areas as autos, televisions, and motorcycles can be expected to slow as countries with surplus dollar reserves invest in U.S. plants which produce these products. The Government sector Anticipated changes in the need for services provided both by the Federal Government and by State and local governments will result in the reduction in the share of GNP devoted to government purchases to 15.5 percent by 1990. Government purchases are outlays on goods and services, while government expenditures include not only purchases but also grants, transfers, and net interest payments.3 During the projected period, Federal purchases will increase slowly, as military purchases continue the slow climb they began after they plunged from the high levels of 51 T«bl« 4. Nat •xports, actual and projactad, aaUctad yaara 1963-90 [Amounts in billions of 1972 dollars] Amount N at o p o rto 1993 oporto ............................................................ 7.3 Exports................................................................ 42.2 Food and toad grain* .................................... 2.0 Construction, mining, and oMWd machinery . 1.4 Computers and peripheral equipment ............ .3 Electronic components.................................... .2 Motor vehicles................................................. 1.9 Aircraft ............................................................ 12 Imports ................................................................ -36.0 Crude petroleum and natural gas .................. •1.6 Apparel............................................................ -.6 Petroleum refining and other related products......................................................... -1.1 Footwear and other leather products............ -.2 -2 Radio and TV receiving sets ......................... Motor vehidee.................................................. -.7 Not 1997 1973 3.5 542 12 1.8 .6 .4 2.4 2.1 ■50.7 -1.5 -1.0 7.9 87.4 4.6 2.4 1.9 1.5 4.4 4.2 •79.9 -3.6 -2.3 -1.3 -.5 -.6 -3.0 -2.9 -1.0 -2.4 -9.7 1990 P srcw rt distrtbubofi 1999 1990 1001 15.9 20.6 26.6 o 117.0 139.3 173.1 100.0 4.7 3.8 3.9 4.3 3.4 4.3 5.6 3.3 3.1 42 .7 5.8 2.7 3.7 5.1 .5 6.0 72 6.9 4.5 6.5 7.9 9.6 2.8 -101.1 -118.7 -146.5 100.0 -7.1 -72 -9.5 4.6 -3.1 -42 1.7 -3.5 -2.4 -1.6 -3.8 -122 -3.4 -2.1 •4.8 -13.8 -4.1 •3.0 -62 -17.1 3.1 .6 .6 2.0 1007 ion I9 6 0 Avoraga iw u il ra te of dianQ a 1009 1990 1093 1097 1073 1000 1909 1973 1997 1171 1090 1009 1990 1090 5.3 3.5 7.7 4.1 -.4 5.3 6.9 7.3 4.3 5.1 3.6 5.9 32 2.2 6.5 5.6 3.4 to to to to to 100.0 3.5 3.0 1.1 .7 4.4 3.9 100.0 3.0 2.0 ( ') ( ') 100.0 52 2.7 22 1.7 5.0 42 100.0 42 2.9 100.0 32 2.9 2.6 2.3 5.1 52 100.0 7.0 3.1 100.0 22 3.1 3.0 2.7 52 5.7 100.0 62 2.9 100.0 25 3.4 3.4 29 5.1 5.7 100.0 6.5 29 -16.4 6.5 •2.0 3.3 20.5 17.3 6.0 14.7 9.7 -2.3 14.4 13.5 8.3 16.3 6.9 20.9 27.7 10.8 11.9 7.9 16.0 14.6 112 4.3 ■2.7 5.1 7.5 8.5 42 6.4 3.4 102 4.0 4.9 6.2 6.0 3.6 4.1 3.3 1.8 2.6 52 4.4 1.8 6.1 6.9 6.8 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 2.6 1.0 12 5.9 3.6 1.3 3.0 12.1 2.4 1.6 32 12.1 2.9 1.8 4.0 11.6 28 20 42 11.7 5.5 21.3 27.6 41.9 14.0 14.8 26.6 21.9 -2.5 6.1 6.7 3.3 72 6.4 4.6 2.4 3.8 7.0 5.3 4.5 ( ') ( ') ( ') .6 to ' Not meaningful. the Vietnam-war period. State and local purchases will grow more slowly than GNP, because the expected low growth in educational purchases is not likely to be^ compensated for by growth in other areas. Table 5 shows levels, percent distribu tion, and rates of change for the government sector and for its components over the period studied. Purchases for space programs are expected to show a slight drop from the 1976 level as no new major programs are foreseen. Nuclear purchases are projected to almost double from the 1973 constant dollar level with an increased use of nuclear power as an energy source. The remaining portion of nondefense purchases are projected to grow at a 2.5-percent annual average rate from 1973 to 1990, enough to service the increased level of transfers and grants. This growth in nondefense purchases is not projected to be large enough to compensate for the slow defense growth, and so the Federal sector, will drop as a share of GNP, falling to a level o f 5.5 percent by 1990. Expect drop in Federal share. The Federal sector is composed of two major categories, defense and nondefense purchases. Defense purchases of goods and services represent the major part of Federal purchases. In real terms over the period 1952 to 1971, defense purchases remained in a range of $75 billion to $100 billion annually, while, from 1972 to 1976, they dropped to $65 billion. In 1952, defense purchases were 87.6 percent of Federal purchases; by 1975 they were 67.7 percent; and by 1990 they are projected to be 66.7 percent. Over the 1952-90 period, compensation increased from 34.4 percent of total defense purchases, to 47.5 percent in 1975, and in 1990 it is projected to be 39.4 percent. Military force levels are projected to remain at 2.1 million and civilian defense employment to remain stable at the 1976 level. This constant level of real compensation plus an assumption of real growth of only 2.0 percent per year in military hardware would result in defense growing at a much slower rate than GNP. This will have an important effect on the output growth of the ordnance, missile, motor vehicle, aircraft, shipbuilding, and electronics industries. The growth of the nondefense sector since 1952 has been continuous. However, purchases are projected to grow more slowly than GNP to 1990, for a consolidation of existing programs is expect ed. It is also assumed that there will be an explicit effort on the part of the Federal Government to lower the amount of GNP it lays claim to. State and local purchases slowdown. The recent trend of State and local government purchases relative to GNP has been one of continuous growth, rising from 8.9 percent of GN P in 1951 to 13.9 percent by 1976. However, due to major changes in the forces fueling these purchases, a growth less than that of GN P is projected over the 1976-90 period, causing such government purchas es to drop to 9.9 percent of GNP by 1990. The completion of the interstate highway program, the assumption of no new major government pro grams, and demographic changes are the main reasons for this slowing growth trend. In 1963 persons 5 through 17 years of age numbered 49 million; in 1973, they numbered 52 million; in 1990, they will total approximately 46 million. The effect of this change will be to lower the need for elementary and secondary education expenditures, the largest component of State and local expendi tures. In 1963, educational purchases were 41.2 percent of total State and local purchases; in 1973 they were 42.3 percent, while in 1990, they are projected to account for 34.1 percent. Along with 52 M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990 this drop in primary-education purchases is a decrease in the need for higher-education purchas es. The age group 18 to 24 will be impacted by the low birth rates of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s, causing their numbers in 1990 to be lower than in 1973 (25.5 million versus 26.7 million). Therefore, higher education purchases are projected to de cline to 7.4 percent of total State and local purchases by 1990 down from 1973’s level of 10.1 percent. Highway purchases are projected to remain stable as no new programs are envisioned. High way construction purchases are projected to remain at the 1973 level of $17 billion and to be devoted principally to maintenance and repair and to some upgrading of intrastate roads. Purchases for health care and hospitals will increase from 8.4 percent of State and local purchases in 1963 to 14.1 percent in 1990, as governments continue to expand and intensify health coverage and as those over 65 years old increase in number. General State and local government purchases are expected to rise from the 10.7-percent proportion of GNP in 1963 and the 12.2-percent share in 1973 to 17.0 percent in 1990, as State and local governments administer Federal grants programs in the areas of health, safety, employment, and environment. Industry structure of demand Each demand sector accounts for purchases from a different set of industries—households consume a different variety of products than do businesses. Purchases from the 162 industries of the BLS input-output matrix are distributed in different relative amounts. Demand by major industry sector shows the impact of shifts in both the relative importance of final demand sectors as well as shifts in each sector’s distribution of purchases.4 Industries heavily dependent on the purchases of a demand sector which is growing more slowly than is GN P will have slower growth than other industries unless they can substitute their products for other products being supplied to that sector or unless they can expand to other areas of demand. For example, because government expenditures are expected to increase more slowly than are consumer expenditures, industries whose products are mainly consumed by government can expect to have slower growth than those dependent on consumers. When viewed over time, changes in the industry composition of GNP can be seen. Overall, the industry sector distribution for the projected period displays little change from trends observ able since 1963 (table 6). The distribution of demand projected to 1990 requires a smaller proportion of agricultural products, continuing the decline begun in 1963 in the agriculture sector. Dependent on PCE and on exports, the agriculture industry is projected to grow more slowly than total PCE due to the slow growth in food purchased by households. Also, food exports are projected to show little growth from the high levels attained in 1973. The negative value in table 6 for mining reflects the expectation that imports will total more than the rest of final demand. This highlights the growing U.S. dependence on raw materials from the rest of the world. The construction sector is projected to continue its decline in relative importance as a result of the decreased amount of purchases by both Federal and State and local governments. Demand for manufacturing, dependent on PCE for two-thirds of its total demand, shows little change over the 1963-90 period, growing more slowly than PCE but keeping pace with GNP. Growth in demand for all the remaining indus- Table 5. Government purchases, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 Government purchases 1963 Total ........................................................................ 197.6 102.2 Federal ....................................................... 80.8 Defense............................................................ Compensation .............................................. 38.1 O ther............................................................ 42.6 Nondefense ..................................................... 21.4 Compensation .............................................. 9.6 11.9 O ther............................................................ State and local ................................................... 95.4 Education ......................................................... 39.3 Health, welfare, and sanitation ....................... 13.3 Safety .............................................................. 7.2 O ther................................................................ 35.5 1967 248.4 125.3 98.6 45.9 52.7 26.6 9.9 16.7 123.1 52.5 18.6 8.9 43.1 1973 252.5 96.6 69.7 33.9 35.7 26.9 13.6 13.4 155.9 66.0 31.2 12.0 46.7 1960 295.8 105.2 73.9 32.0 41.9 31.3 17.2 14.1 190.5 76.1 44.6 15.0 54.8 Psrcsnt distribution 1965 312.3 111.8 74.5 31.4 43.1 37.3 18.8 18.5 200.5 74.2 50.8 16.7 58.9 1990 3265 117.8 78.6 31.0 47.6 39.2 20.3 18.9 208.8 71.1 57.0 17.9 62.8 1963 1967 . 1973 1990 1 Amount 1965 1990 . 1967 1973 1900 1965 1973 1967 1973 1900 1906 I960 1900 5.9 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.5 5.6 0.3 -4.2 -5.6 -4.9 -6.3 2.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.5 12 .9 2 1.1 1.1 18 -.3 .2 2.2 -.4 .5 36. 1.2 .7 -.5 2.0 1.0 22 1.0 5.3 -3.6 4.0 3.9 9.0 5.1 1.4 3.4 1.8 .8 5.6 2.9 1.0 to . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 79.0 37.3 41.7 11.6 100.0 78.7 36.6 42.1 21.3 7.9 13.3 72.1 35.1 37.0 27.9 14.0 13.8 70.3 30.4 39.8 29.7 16.3 13.4 66.7 28.1 38.5 33.3 16.8 16.5 66.7 26.3 40.4 33.3 17.2 16.0 8.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 6.6 41.2 14.0 7.6 37.2 42.6 15.1 7.2 35.0 42.3 39.9 23.4 7.9 28.8 37.0 25.3 8.3 29.4 34.1 27.3 7.5 8.7 5.3 4.9 9.3 53 20.0 7.7 30.0 8.6 30.1 raise o changi 1963 100.0 21.0 l [A m o u n ts in b illio n s o f 1 9 7 2 d o lla rs ] to to 2.3 to 2.0 -.5 5.3 3.3 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.4 to to 1.7 1.5 .4 2.4 .8 -.8 1.7 .4 3.6 2.3 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.4 1.7 Table 6. GNP by major industry sector, actual and pro jected, selected years 1963-90 [Percent distribution of 1972 dollars] Sector Total GNP . A griculture Mining Construction . . . M anufacturing ___ Transportation, communications, public u tilitie s ..................... Trade ......................... Finance, insurance, and real estate ............................... Services ............... O ther services . , 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 100.0 1.2 -.2 13.1 29.5 100.0 1.0 -.1 11.7 30.4 100.0 1.1 -.2 10.9 31.1 100.0 1.1 -.5 8.9 30.5 100.0 1.0 100.0 .9 5.3 14.6 5.7 14.8 6.1 15.8 12.6 11.1 12.8 12.5 11.1 13.0 13.4 11.9 10.0 1963 -.4 -.4 8.8 30.7 8.2 30.8 6.6 15.8 6.8 16.2 7.2 16.6 14.8 12.4 10.4 15.2 12.6 9.1 15.6 13.0 8.1 try sectors, except other services, is projected to increase faster than PCE, the largest source of demand. This acceleration will result in a continu ing increase in these industries’ share of GNP. Lastly, other services, which is composed largely of compensation of both Federal and State and local employees, continues its relative decline, as gov ernment employment is projected to remain level. governments at the beginning of the period, financed by increased Federal grants to State and local governments. The impact of the increased compensation would be to raise the level of State and local purchases above those of the base case. Also a slight increase in Federal nondefense purchases was assumed, as the added grants are serviced. All of the increased State and local purchases and employment are expected to be in the areas other than education. These purchases would be mainly in the areas of general government, health, and safety, as governments hire persons in jobs which require few specialized skills and low levels of capital expenditures. Gradually, the extra State and local purchases would induce increased demand in other sectors of GNP as they flow through the economy. By 1985, most of the additional employment over the base case would be provided by the private sector. □ The higher employment alternative BLS has also prepared a set of projections based on an alternative assumed course for the economy over the period 1977-90. This alternative course assumed that the unemployment rate would be at a lower level each year after 1980, due to explicit government policies. By 1990, the unemployment rate was assumed to have reached 4.0 percent, as opposed to 4.5 percent in the base projections. The tables on page 41 and 45 of this issue show the projections data for both the base and alternative cases. The lower unemployment rate would be attained by increased employment by State and local -------------- FOOTNOTES-------------1 For a detailed discussion o f the supply side o f the economy, see Norman C. Saunders, “The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth,” this issue, pp. 37-47. 2 (U.S. Bureau o f the Census), Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 601. 3 See Saunders, “The U.S. Economy to 1990.” 4 Demand by industry is only part o f the picture because an industry’s output is dependent not only on final demand but also upon induced or interindustry demand. Total output and employment by industry, the sum o f induced and final demand, is derived by use o f the input-output model. The derived output and employment by industry will be discussed in a subsequent article. 54 Appendix. Supplementary Tables Table A -1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 19 9 0 1 (Millions o f 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Sector Title D a i r y a n d P o u ltry Produ c t s Meat and Livestock Pr o d u c t s Cott o n Fo od a n d Feed Gr ains Other Ag r i c u l t u r a l Produ c t s F o r e s t r y and Fishe ry P r o d u c t s A g r i c u l t u r a l , Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Iron a n d F e r r o a l l o y M i n i n g C o p p e r Ore Mini n g Ot h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g Coal M i n i n g Crude P e t r o l e u m a n d Natural Gas Sto n e a n d Cla y Min i n g and Q u a r r y i n g Chemi c a l and F e r t ilizer M i n e r a l s M i n i n g New and Residential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n New N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Build i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n New P u b l i c U t i lity C o n s t r u c t i o n New H i g h w a y Constr u c t i o n All Othe r New Constr u c t i o n Oil and Gas Well Dr i l l i n g and E x p l o r a t i o n M a i n t e n a n c e an d Repair C o n s t r u c t i o n Ordnance C o m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s M e a t Produ c t s D a i r y P r o ducts C a n n e d and Fr ozen Foods Grain Mi ll Pr o d u c t s B a k e r y Produ c t s Sugar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Produ c t s A l c o h o l i c B e v e raqes Sof t D r i n k s an d Flav o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Pr o d u c t s Tobacco Manufacturers Fa brics, Yarn and Thread M i l l s Flo or C o v e rings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Texti le Goods H o s i e r y and Knit Goods Apparel M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabr i c a t e d T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s Loggi ng S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g M i l l s Mi llw ork, P l y wood and Ot h e r W o o d P r o d u c t s W o o d e n Con t a i n e r s H o u s e h o l d Furniture Oth e r Fu r n i t u r e and F i x t u r e s Pap e r P r o ducts Paperboard N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g P e r i o d i c a l and Book Print in g, P u b l i s h i n g 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 1678. 557. 882. 1684. 5524. -56 1. 76. -532. -24. -89. 954. -1594. -137. 3. 40282. 28718. 10393. 10938. 7798. 3213. 7178. 2424. 5522. 20817. 11204. 8161. 2808. 7299. -86. 2363. 6544. 3233. 6317. 7504. 759. 855. -306 . 751. 17015. 170 1. 129. -56 1 . -75. 3. 4181. 2005. 1092. 177. 1797 . 3091 . 1889. 110. -358. 2463. 5713. -976. 228. -628. -9. -226. 1040 . -1083. -97. 89. 34687. 38159. 14558. 11675. 7783 . 3046 . 7875. 5482. 5253. 22928. 12297. 9721 . 3627 . 7786 . -52. 2881 . 7405. 4327 . 7242. 7445. 621 . 1356. -145. 1002. 18857 . 2503. 27 1. -587. -39. 36 . 4972. 2722. 1441. 225. 2045. 3693. 1847. 1520. 539. 1758. 7583. -410. 299. -304. 20 . -770. 1 150. -2809. -195. -51. 52615. 37031 . 1787 1 . 9540. 7336 . 2739. 7151. 3992. 2659. 24094. 12912. 12050. 4288. 8003. 198. 3216. 9097 . 5433. 8152. 8457 . 957. 2757. 70. 1474. 23149. 3523. 542. -559. 141. 14. 6606 . 3500 . 3120 . 60 1. 1895. 5746. 1893. 746. 906. 3808. 8803. -667. 380. -36 1. 52. -745. 1019. -6703. -163. 4. 50802. 36128. 19067. 8343. 7588. 4084. 9050 . 4103. 3168. 28843. 12664. 15354. 5673. 8260. 266 . 3407 . 10717. 6933. 10142. 8991. 1389. 3588. 147 . ■ 1930. 29979. 4395. 717. -770 . 21 . 32. 8029. 4045. 3295. 432. 2112. 6942. 1947. 956. 1046. 4652. 9823. -521. 446. -341. 69. -734. 1169. -7200. -135. 6. 66978. 38333. 21464. 8337 . 8416. 4740. 9659. 4491 . 3363. 32316. 13117. 17713. 7030 . 8694. 419. 377 1 . 12923. 8685. 12134. 9510. 1912. 5148. 345. 2443. 37538. 5607 . 868. -72 1. 310. 35. 10258. 4643. 4576. 558. 2374. 7531. 200 1 . 989. 1230 . 5052. 10554. -416. 511. -347. 80. -785. 1410. -8890. -123. 15. 70639. 44224. 25899. 8348. 8870. 5398. 995 1 . 4823. 3774. 33659. 15964. 19696. 8011. 9070 . 523. 4054. 14862. 10176. 13743. 9944. 2380. 6994. 523. 2940 . 45447. 6923. 1077. -749. 523. 45. 1250 1 . 5389. 5821 . 638. 2681. 8249. Tabic A -1. Continued—Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1663 to 1990 (Millions o f 1972 dollars) Projected No. 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 Sec t o r Titl e Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing I n d u s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s A g r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ch emi cal P r o d u c t s Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs Drugs C l e a n i n g a n d Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s a n d A l l i e d Pr o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s T i r e s a n d In ner Tub es M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o ducts Plastic Products L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Ind ustrial L e a ther F o o t w e a r a n d Other Leather P r o d u c t s Glass Cement and Concrete Products S t r u c t u r a l Clay P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y a n d R e l a t e d Pr o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Clay P r o d u c t s B l a s t F u r n a c e s and Basic Steel P r o d u c t s Iro n a n d Steel Fou n d r i e s and F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Copper Pr o d u c t s P r i m a r y A l u m i n u m and Al u m i n u m P r o d u c t s O t h e r P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s Pr o d u c t s Metal Containers Heating Apparatus and Plumbing Fixtures F a b r i c a t e d S t r u ctural Metal S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s Metal Stampings Cutle r y , Hand To o l s and Genera l H a r d w a r e Other Fabricated Products Eng ine s, T u r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s Farm Machinery C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equipment Metal Dorking Machinery Special Industry Machines G e n e r a l I n d ustrial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop P r o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral Equipment T y p e w r i t e r s a n d Ot h e r Off i c e E q u i p m e n t Service Industry Machines E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equ ip ment E l e c t r i c a l Industrial Ap p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c L i g h t i n g a n d Mir i n g R a d i o a n d Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s R a d i o a n d C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u ipment Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s El ectrical P r o d u c t s Motor Vehicles A i rcraft S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g a n d Repair R a i l r o a d E q u i pment Cycles, B i c y c l e s a n d Pa r t s O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ipment Scientific and Controlling Instruments M e d i c a l a n d De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 911. 1893. 263. 716. 410 . 115. 2702. 4282. 157. 10070. 1629. 896. 324. -30. 4121. 528. -1. 1. 219. 234. -247. 60 . 231. 34. -809. 88. 151. 1 156 . 72. 432. 764. 605. 1416. 2882. 4290. 1 167. 3083. 3629. 2791. 190 . 1796. 760. 2143. 20 10. 1208. 3446. 730. 1903. 1457. 7457. 780. 1037. 26706. 12478. 2225. 1443. 124. 853. 1569. 737. 1450. 2039. 468. 1358. 477. 43. 3575. 5794. 133. 12589. 1703. 1273. 616. -57 . 4381. 636. 58. 19. 155. 228. -673. 172. -444. 135. -1127. 119. 122. 1773. 265. 703. 964. 1067 . 2150. 4298. 5203. 1677 . 4833. 4770. 3347. 427. 3275. 1213. 3222. 2798. 1944. 4262. 1054. 3405. 2287 . 9459. 1214. 1437. 31466. 17314. 3285. 2309. 216. 1718. 1987. 1189. 2268. 2637. 522. 1230. 1 142. 384. 5817. 8695. 410. 15953. 2490. 1310. 1373. 8. 4420. 1086. 345. 17. 314. 443. -707. 182. 206 . 686. - 1028. 270 . 302. 2517. 196. 1145. 1302. 10 15. 2774. 5299. 7378. 2237. 4628. 5316. 3684. 541. 6352. 1306. 4353. 3795. 2265. 6640 . 1510. 5040. 3070. 8534. 1688. 1888. 50521. 12989. 4502. 1972. 711. 5131. 2009. 1817. 2144. 3389. 550. 1384. 1109. 418. 7930. 9206. 440. 16918. 2688. 1709. 1090 . -21. 4463. 1 197. 85. -5. 344. 331. -2037. 467. 225. 555. -1007. 141. 266. 3412. 65. 1540. 1485. 1116. 3172. 6830. 8802. 2938. 5667. 5856. 4704. 684. 11481. 1975. 5083. 4477. 2560. 8595. 1567. 7333. 3989. 9892. 2380. 2493. 60526. 15252. 6878. 2324. 1052. 5059. 2492. 2483. 2373. 4166. 621. 1643. 1290. 608. 10070. 12328. 524. 19396. 2763. 1864. 1299. -14. 4639. 1587 . 132. -3. 472. 421. -2356. 594. 420. 752. -956. 178. 325. 3995. 60. 1873. 1996. 1214. 3791. 8192. 1 1259. 3505. 7 168. 7175. 5623. 673. 15135. 2265. 6077. 5325. 2996. 11157. 1935. 9557. 4767. 10383. 3105. 2970. 73172. 17692. 7481. 2943. 1365.' 7 129. 2840. 2971 . 2488. 4841. 650. 1926. 1485. 793. 12452. 16035. 592. 20979. 2688. 1994. 1423. -5. 4572. 2007 . 116. -7. 591. 507. -3109. 684. 516. 896. -1006. 182. 377. 4657. -1. 2241. 2550. 1223. 4500. 9950. 13904. 4198. 8667. 8901 . 6597. 643. 20170. 2521. 7193. 6476. 3485. 13894. 2275. 12111. 5850. 1 1559. 3959. 3308. 87022. 20860. 8836. 3692. 1927. 8376. 3210. 3543. Table A -1. Continued—Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 11 1 12 1 13 1 14 115 116 1 17 118 1 19 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 123 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 16 1 162 Sector Title Opti ca l and O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq uip ment and S u p p l i e s Mat ch es* C l o c k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e Musi c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g G o o d s Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Local Transit an d I n t e r c i t y Bus e s Truck Trans p o r t a t i o n M a t e r Trans p o r t a t i o n Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Servi c e s C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Except Ra d i o a n d Tv Radi o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g Electric U t i l i t i e s Ga s U t i 1 i t ies Ma t e r and S a n i t a r y S e r v i c e s M h o l e s a l e Trade Reta il Trade Bank ing Cr edit A g e n c i e s and Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s Insurance Owne r O c c u p i e d Real Est a t e Real Es tate H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Plac e s Personal and Repa i r S e r v i c e s Barb e r and Bea u t y Shops M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s iness S e r v i c e s Adve rt i si ng Miscellaneous Professional Services A u t o m o b i l e Repair M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s Amu s e m e n t and Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Docto rs ' and De ntists' S e r v i c e s Hospi tals Oth e r Medical S e r vices Educational Services Nonprofit Organizations Po st Off i c e Other Federal E n t e r p r i s e s Other State a n d Local G o v e r n m e n t D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imports B u s i n e s s Travel, E n t e rnainment, a n d G i f t s Offi c e Suppl i e s Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t In dustry Re st of M o r l d Industry Households Inv e n t o r y Va l u a t i o n A d j u s t m e n t 1963 396. 973. 288. 1143. 2297. 1192. 4058. 4198. 6066. 3119. 2521. 228. 195. 8056. 47. 8275. 5062. 2372. 35178. 85789. 9237 . 5190. 13728. 50347. 25723. 3374. 9379. 3935. 4129. 222. 5534. 9172. 2410. 5807. 14450. 11150. 40 13. 8300. 10703. 1914. 105. 805. -4829. -343. 485. -269. 100378. 2241. 6431 . -251 . 1967 637. 2115. 437. 1649. 2554. 1532. 4878. 4458. 7685. 3545. 5192. 331. 142. 1 1595. 10. 1079 1 . 5965. 2693. 44686. 104613. 10288. 8666. 16525. 60500. 30113. 4499. 10663. 4515. 5635. 252. 6834. 11073. 2081. 5832. 18165. 14786. 4775. 107 18. 12802. 2512. 121. 1021. -4635. -432. 630 . -863. 122065. 5767. 6442. -2127. 1973 849. 3886. 521. 2212. 40 12. 1873. 6033. 4050. 9051 . 4660 . 6055. 497. 178. 18274. 21. 15987. 7087. 3389. 59725. 135178. 14859. 7868. 21617. 80558. 40345. 5220. 10891. 3702. 7457. 320. 8194. 15017. 2918. 7277. 25249. 25454. 7795. 12652. 14857. 2907 . 103. 1429. -5470 . -464. 770 . -1721 . 134758. 5807 . 5030 . -19428. 1980 1316. 5364. 687 . 290 1 . 5334. 2228. 7349. 4799. 10683. 5235. 8553. 567 . 213. 28454. 26 . 21605. 8069. 4128. 72752. 166544. 21253. 10486. 27402. 110692. 53108. 6521 . 11125. 3727 . 10254. 424. 10630. 19705. 3808. 8730. 34158. 35880. 10420. 14027. 17515. 3287. 98. 2209. -6010. -492. 1233. -1643. 154298. 3841. 3643. -2898. 1985 1538. 6823. 973. 3799. 7006 . 2902. 8696. 4972. 12447. 5916. 1 1268. 679. 239. 38704. 20. 25734. 8350. 5055. 86802. 205409. 26932. 12293. 33502. 136085. 65263. 8574. 11760. 3930 . 1 1877. 506. 12275. 24870. 4595. 10030. 42795. 48585. 12265. 15590.. 19813. 3498. 91. 2739. -5932. -493. 1281. -973. 162760. 2342. 3289. -3773. 1990 1772. 8747. 1268. 4823. 8813. 3658. 10258. 5177. 14423. 6883. 14658. 760 . 272. 52229. 15. 31307. 8923. 6049. 102095. 247738. 32677. 14188. 40513. 164546. 77222. 10696. 12494. 4143. 13309. 602. 14001. 30570. 5390. 11425. 53794. 65058. 14626. 16573. 22204. 3692. 123. 3052. -6763. -524. 1264. 957. 169406. 1219. 2971. -3735. Table A -2. Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 4 5 6 7 11 13 14 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 66 67 Sector Titl e D a i r y a n d Poul t r y P r o ducts M e a t a n d Li ves tock Produ c t s F o o d a n d Feed Grains O t h e r A g r i c u l t u r a l Produ c t s F o r e s t r y an d Fishery Pro ducts A g r i c u l t u r a l , F o r e s t r y and Fish e r y S e r v i c e s Coal M i n i n g S t o n e a n d Clay M i n i n g a n d Q u a r r y i n g C h e m i c a l and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g Ordnance Meat Products Dairy Products C a n n e d a n d Frozen Foo ds G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s Bakery Products Sugar Confectionary Products A l c o h o l i c B e v e rages S o f t D r i n k s an d Flav o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts Tobacco Manufacturers Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d Mills Floor Coverings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Good s H o s i e r y a n d Knit Goods Apparel M i s c e l l a n e o u s F a b r i c a t e d T e x tile P r o d u c t s Loggi ng M i l l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Othe r W o o d P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d Furniture O t h e r F u r n i t u r e and Fixt ur es Paper Products Paperboard Newspaper Printing and Publishing P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing I n d u s t r i a l Inorganic and Orga n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricultural Chemicals M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o ducts Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber Drugs C l e a n i n g and Toil et P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s a n d Alli e d P r o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s T i r e s a n d Inner Tubes M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o ducts P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s F o o t w e a r and Other L e a ther P r o d u c t s Glass C e m e n t a n d Co n c r e t e P r o ducts 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 1645. 172. 3. 4352. 678. 21. 304. 18. 2. 233. 207 81 . 10715. 8033. 2250. 7228. 930 . 2384. 6950 . 3132. 5578. 6890 . 796 . 804. 131. 732. 17213. 1556. 50. 242. 3821. 228. 1589. 89. 1788. 2247. 592. 147. 46. 283. 9. 2013. 3980. 28. 9004. 1392. 734. 155. 4364. 375. 3. 1851. 190. 247. 4644. 620 . 168. 221. 5. 3. 406 . 23024. 11451. 9365. 2948. 7698. 956 . 2894. 7926. 4206. 6623. 6545. 720 . 1269. 141. 959. 19213. 2047. 30. 304. 4520. 278. 1782. 86. 2036. 2509. 808. 192. 58. 300 . 15. 26 13. 5318. 61. 10924. 1483. 911. 366. 4760. 523. 3. 1740 . 184. 246. 5228. 850. 238. 265. 7. 4. 358. 23717. 12093. 1 1085. 3527. 7816. 1025. 3105. 9380. 5133. 7015. 7100. 759. 2445. 141. 1411. 24273. 3084. 34. 30 1. 5701. 446. 2286. 109. 1891. 3974. 875. 280. 85. 402. 23. 3747. 7681 . 89. 14628. 2410. 1046 . 717. 5164. 751. 6. 1766. 159. 243. 6051 899. 305. 241 8. 4. 508. 28611. 12474. 14775. 4726. 8081 1026. 3395. 11344. 6550 8696 7843 969. 3284 167. 1844. 31712. 4051. 31 374. 7196 563 2492 114 2099 4670 958 295 88 445 30 507 1 8299 92 15691. 2932 1407 842 5828 892 7. 1800 . 159. 245. 6685. 944. 368. 27 1 . 11 . 4. 699. 31703. 12932. 17008. 5994. 8503. 1047. 3730 . 13442. 8181. 10427. 8270 . 1234. 4734. 229. 2293. 39421. 5150. 35. 519. 9274. 767. 3287. 157. 2365. 5444. 1099. 408. 122. 523. 37. 6368. 11317. 128. 18938. 3306 . 1648. 1054. 6552. 1149. 10. 1848. 160. 249. 7325. 1073. 436 . 308. 14. 5. 913. 33343. 15830. 18962. 6935. 8873. 1110. 4009. 15396. 9589. 1 1763. 8587. 1536. 6469. 301. 2788. 47926. 6384. 39. 691. 11399. 999. 4186. 207. 2687. 6344. 1251. 536. 160. 604. 46. 7867. 14978. 168. 20970. 3681 . 1925. 1293. 7340. 1443. 13. Table A-2. Continued-Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 69 70 71 73 74 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 87 88 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 104 105 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 Sec-tor Title P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s Blas t Furna c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Aluminum a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s H e a t i n g Ap p a r a t u s a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Meta l Sc r e w M a c h i n e P r o d u c t s Met al Sta m p i n g s Cu tlery, Ha nd Too ls a n d General H a r d w a r e Other Fabricated P r o d u c t s Engines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y Met al W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Sp ecial In dus tr y M a c h i n e s M a c h i n e Sh op Pr o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and Per i p h e r a l Equ i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s an d Ot h e r O f f i c e Equ i p m e n t S e r v i c e Indus tr y M a c h i n e s Elect r i c Tra n s m i s s i o n Equ i p m e n t Electrical Indus tr ial A p p a r a t u s H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s Elect r i c Li ghting a n d W i r i n g Radi o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets Radi o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Eq u i p m e n t Ele c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ct rical P r o d u c t s Mot o r V e h icles Aircraft Sh ip and Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r Cycles, Bic ycl es a n d Par t s Oth er T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ i p m e n t S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medi c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Op tical and O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s Wa tch es , Clocks a n d Cloc k O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y an d S i l v e r w a r e Musical Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g Goods Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Local Tr ansit and I n t e r c i t y Bu s e s Tru ck Tran s p o r t a t i o n W a t e r Tran s p o r t a t i o n Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Se r v i c e s C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Ra d i o a n d Tv Electric U t i l ities Gas Uti l i t i e s W a t e r and Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Tr ade Reta i1 T rade B a n king Credit A g e n c i e s a n d F i n a ncial B r o k e r s I n s u rance Owner Oc c u p i e d Real Estate Real Esta te H o t e l s and Lodgi ng Pla c e s Pe rso nal and Repair S e r v i c e s 1963 287. 143. 14. 4. 13. 82. 18. 41. 333. 578. 153. 154. 13. 92. 25. 3. 0. 142. 373. 9. 16. 2573. 530 . 1678. 82. 172. 525. 15560. 60. 267. 227. 137. 22. 156. 275. 448. 388. 1322. 2068. 880. 2618. 3818. 3689. 808. 1941. 167. 25. 6249. 7066 . 4855. 2351 . 26209. 82791. 7517. 5049. 13389. 50347. 21524. 2659. 9295. 1967 305. 164. 5. 8. 10. 55. 21. 52. 416. 705. 202. 167. 42. 95. 24. 5. 0. 149. 450. 12. 19. 3447. 668. 3503. 63. 165. 764. 19145. 60. 479. 364. 455. 30. 207 . 407. 780 . 521. 1867. 2413. 1131. 2881. 3846 . 4213. 661. 3578. 230. 104. 8920. 8949. 5723. 2580. 31827. 101442. 8527. 8516. 16020. 60500. 25583. 3666. 10606. 1973 518. 204. 7. 12. 13. 86. 112. 79. 494. 956. 258. 244. 124. 72. 65. 8. 0. 245. 704. 15. 35. 5427. 960 . 6513. 62. 220. 969. 31003. 64. 808. 1502. 1176. 41. 260. 402. 1261. 777. 2318. 3788. 1284. 3372. 3136. 5191. 842. 4784. 308. 123. 14201. 13200. 6448. 3266. 40499. 130357. 11922. 7538. 20613. 80558. 33241. 4765. 10786. 1980 602. 212. 8. 16. 15. 116. 141. 104. 564. 1207. 304. 350 . 169. 98. 88. 9. 216. 365. 941. 16. 48. 7267. 1145. 10083. 96. 340 . 1230. 39629. 92. 1160. 2155. 1340 . 53. 339. 488. 1736. 1022. 3047. 5246. 1659. 3967 . 3469. 6081. 970 . 6700 . 330. 145. 22620. 17967. 7042. 4038. 48697. 161287. 17283. 10027. 25945. 110692. 43349. 6225. 10937. 1985 758. 263. 9. 21. 19. 153. 200 . 131. 692. 1668. 408. 485. 244. 141. 127. 11. 264. 532. 1236. 22. 69. 9590 . 1574. 13043. 125. 439. 1498. 50243. 128. 1608. 2987 . 1848. 72. 418. 587. 2331. 1350 . 3900 . 6982. 2214. 4729. 3760 . 7 170 . 1208. 8940 . 398. 162. 31933. 22477. 7351 . 5024. 59085. 197894. 22185. 1 1776 . 31943. 136085. 53286. 7946 . 1 1564. 1990 934. 323. 11. 27. 23. 194. 270. 160. 832. 2221. 529. 637. 333. 193. 174. 12. 318. 732. 1559. 29. 94. 12142. 2072. 16770. 160. 565. 1794. 63332. 167. 2112. 3922. 2586. 95. 509. 705. 3004. 1735. 4887. 8966. 286 1. 5560 . 4082. 8332. 1430 . 11441. 441. 178. 44444. 28256. 7957. 6087. 69345. 237944. 27454. 13644. 38767. 164546. 64436. 9842. 12291. Table A -2. Continued—Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. Sector Titl e 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 158 160 16 1 B a r b e r and Beau t y Shops Miscellaneous Business Services Ad verti si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Repair M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s A m u s e m e n t a n d R e c r eation S e r v i c e s D o c t o r s ’ and Den tis ts ' S e r v i c e s Hospi tal s Other Medical Services Educational Services Nonprofit Organizations P o s t Office O t h e r Fede ra l Enter p r i s e s O t h e r S t a t e an d Local G o v e r n m e n t D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imports Scrap, Used, a n d S e c o n d h a n d R e s t of U o r l d I n d ustry Households 3935. 6 18. 165. 4233. 8998. 1801. 5743. 14073. 10304. 3445. 6556. 9997. 1467. 9. 761. 3958. 176 1. -1815. 6431. 4515. 1342. 179. 4952. 10810. 1598. 6213. 17436. 13248. 3539. 8664. 1 186 1. 1781. 0. 982. 5600 . 2639. -2587. 6442. 3702. 1864. 193. 6116. 14652. 1887. 7233. 23429. 22262. 4625. 10689. 14113. 1975. 0. 1372. 6023. 3165. -3750. 5030. 3727. 2417. 232. 7893. 19180. 2862. 8690. 31407. 31382. 5984. 12429. 16603. 2112. 0. 1613. 6670. 4099. -6059. 3643. 3930. 2932. 288. 9229. 24322. 3574. 10018. 39889. 43597. 7560. 13756. 18775. 2232. 0. 1991. 8747. 5343. -8407. 3289. 4143. 3481. 355. 10655. 30010. 4310. 11421. 50608. 59333. 9520. 14756. 21098. 2351. 0. 2290. 11055. 6906. -11953. 297 1 . Table A-3. Personal consumption expenditures, durables, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 22 35 36 37 40 43 45 46 50 51 54 58 61 62 63 65 66 67 69 70 73 74 77 78 80 81 82 83 84 87 88 90 91 92 93 95 96 97 98 100 10 1 102 103 104 105 107 108 109 110 1 11 112 113 114 1 15 116 117 119 120 121 129 130 137 139 158 Sector T i t l e Ordnance Fabrics, Yar n and T h r e a d M i l l s Floor Cov e r i n g s Miscellaneous Textile Goods Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Mi llw ork, Pl ywood a n d O t h e r M o o d P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d Fu rni ture Other F u r n iture a n d F i x t u r e s P e r iodical and Book Printing, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s Tires and Inner Tu b e s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c Products Footw e a r and Othe r L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s Glas s Ce ment and Co n c r e t e P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ston e a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Copp er and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Alumi n u m a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s H e a t i n g Apparatus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Meta l Meta l St a m p i n g s Cu tlery, Han d Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Othe r F a b ricated P r o d u c t s Engines, Tu rbines a n d G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y Met al W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Sp eci al In dustry M a c h i n e s M a c h i n e Shop Pr o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e Ind ust ry M a c h i n e s El ect rical Industrial A p p a r a t u s H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s E l e c t r i c Lig hti ng a n d W i r i n g Rad io and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t Elec t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s Mot o r V e h icles Ai rcraft Sh ip and Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r Cycles, Bicycles a n d Pa r t s Oth er T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical an d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Op tic al an d O p h t h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u ipment a n d S u p p l i e s Wat che s, Clocks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e Musical I n s t ruments a n d S p o r t i n g Go o d s Oth er M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Wat e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n W h o l e s a l e Tra de R e t a i 1 Tra de Personal an d Repair S e r v i c e s Miscellaneous Business Services Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d 1963 1967 1973 94. 58. 804. 60. 252. 242. 3821. 228. 1363. 36. 124. 29. 1392. 54. 139. 77. 359. 3. 287. 12. 4. 13. 82. 18. 333. 327. 108. 154. 13. 92. 25. 3. 243. 99. 1269. 58. 247. 304. 4520. 278. 1558. 7 1. 1 12. 35. 1483. 182. 305. 78. 500 . 3. 305. 12. 8. 10. 55. 21. 416. 464. 151. 167. 42. 95. 24. 5. 296. 165. 2445. 37. 353. 30 1. 570 1 . 446. 1855. 84. 171. 33. 2410. 163. 631. 134. 7 16. 6. 518. 15. 12. 13. 86 . 112. 494. 736. 193. 244. 124. 72. 65. 8. 0 . 142. 373. 16. 2431. 264. 1678. 82. 172. 453. 15560. 60. 267. 227. 137. 12. 64. 275. 192. 388. 1322. 652. 277. 460 . 543. 8. 8. 3101. 19059. 6. 0 . 1858. 0 . 149. 450. 19. 3289. 278. 3503. 63. 165. 659. 19145. 60 . 479. 364. 455. 21. 75. 407 . 316. 521. 1867. 787. 343. 600 . 656 . 13. 45. 4158. 24763. 7. 188. 2719. 0 . 245. 704. 35. 5223. 459. 6513. 62. 220. 868. 31003. 64. 808. 1502. 1176. 29. 70. 402. 470 . 777. 2318. 1288. 435. 955. 1069. 19. 66. 6858. 35987. 13. 229. 3298. 1980 1985 1990 425. 208. 3284. 50. 468. 374. 7196. 563. 2286. 106. 208. 40. 2932. 210. 722. 185. 845. 7. 602. 18. 16. 15. 116. 141. 564. 96 1. 236 . 350. 169. 98. 88. 9. 216. 365. 941. 48. 7037. 577. 10083. 96. 340. 1116. 39629. 92. 1160. 2155. 1340. 36. 82. 488. 675. 1022. 3047. 1890. 629. 1247. 1399. 26. 91. 9191. 47229. 18. 329. 4259. 589. 294. 4734. 72. 651. 519. 9274. 767 . 2731. 150 . 242. 46. 3306 . 278. 887. 257. 1090 . 10. 758. 25. 21. 19. 153. 200 . 692. 1337. 314. 485. 244. 141. 127. 11. 264. 532. 1236. 69. 9282. 801. 13043. 125. 439. 1343. 50243. 128. 1608. 2987. 1848. 51. 95. 587 . 936. 1350 . 3900 . 2569. 907 . 1609. 1807 . 34. 117. 11931. 61019. 25. 456. 5532. 774. 398. 6469. 99. 864. 691. 1 1399. 999. 3241. 202. 276. 53. 3681. 355. 1068. 340. 137 1. 13. 934. 33. 27. 23. 194. 270. 832. 1780. 406. 637. 333. 193. 174. 12. 318. 732. 1559. 94. 11734. 1069. 16770. 160. 565. 1592. 63332. 167. 2112. 3922. 2586. 69 110. 705. 1228. 1735. 4887. 3354. 1236. 2030 . 2288. 43. 147. 15139. 77113. 33. 599: 7129. Table A -4. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurables, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 4 5 6 7 11 13 14 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 40 41 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 57 58 59 60 62 63 65 66 70 71 79 81 82 94 96 Sec t o r Title D a i r y and P o u l t r y Products F o o d and Fe ed Grains O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l P r o ducts F o r e s t r y and F i s hery Pr o d u c t s A g r i c u l t u r a l * Fores t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Coa l M i n i n g S t o n e a n d Cl ay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g C h e m i c a l and Fer t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g Ordnance M e a t Pr o d u c t s D a i r y Produ c t s C a n n e d and Fr ozen Foo ds G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s B a k e r y P r o ducts Sugar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s Soft Drinks and Fla vorings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Products Tobacco Manufacturers Fabri cs * Yarn a n d Thread M i l l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo ds H o s i e r y and Knit Good s Apparel M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabr i c a t e d T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s Logging P a p e r P r o ducts Paperboard N e w s p a p e r P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nting* P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g Indu s t r i a l I n o rganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricultural Chemicals M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r Drugs C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s and A l l i e d Products P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s F o o t w e a r a n d Other Leathe r P r o d u c t s Glass M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s B l a s t Furnaces and Basi c Steel P r o d u c t s S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s Cu tlery* Hand Tools a n d G e n e r a l H a r d w a r e O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pro du cts E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u i pment Household Appliances 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 1645. 3. 4352. 678. 21. 304. 18. 2. 139. 20781. 10715. 8033. 2250. 7228. 930 . 2384. 6950. 3132. 5578. 6890. 738. 71. 732. 17213. 1304. 50. 1589. 89. 1788. 879. 556. 147. 46. 159. 9. 2013. 3951 . 28. 9004. 679. 17. 4287. 17. 56. 14. 41. 251. 45. 9. 141. 1851. 247. 4644. 620. 132. 221. 5. 3. 163. 23024. 11451. 9365. 2948. 7698. 956. 2894. 7926 . 4206. 6623. 6545. 621. 83. 959. 19213. 1800. 30. 1782. 86. 2036. 951. 737. 192. 58. 188. 15. 2613. 5284. 61. 10924. 729. 6 1. 4683. 23. 66. 5. 52. 240. 51. 12. 158. 1740. 246. 5228. 850. 204. 265. 7. 4. 62. 23717. 12093. 11085. 3527. 7816. 1025. 3105. 9380 . 5133. 70 15. 7100. 594. 104. 1411. 24273. 2731. 34. 2286. 109. 1891. 2119. 791. 280 . 85. 231. 23. 3747. 7649. 89. 14628. 883. 86. 5029. 36. 96 . 7. 79. 221. 65. 15. 204. 1766. 243. 6051. 899. 275. 241. 8. 4. 83. 28611. 12474. 14775. 4726. 8081. 1026 . 3395. 11344. 6550. 8696. 7843. 76 1. 117. 1844. 31712. 3583. 31. 2492. 114. 2099. 2384. 852. 295. 88. 238. 30. 5071 . 8259. 92. 15691. 1197. 120. 5643. 47. 100. 8. 104. 246. 68. 16. 230. 1800. 245. 6685. 944. 339. 271. 11. 4. 110. 31703. 12932. 17008. 5994. 8503. 1047. 3730. 13442. 8181. 10427. 8270. 940 . 157. 2293. 39421. 4499. 35. 3287. 157. 2365. 27 13. 949. 408. 122. 281. 37. 6368. 1 1270. 128. 18938. 137 1. 167. 6295. 59. 139. 9. 131. 332. 94. 22. 308*. 1848. 249. 7325. 1073. 407. 308. 14. 5. 139. 33343. 15830. 18962. 6935. 8873. 1110. 4009. 15396. 9589. 1 1763. 8587. 1139. 202. 2788. 47926. 5520. 39. 4186. 207. 2687. 3103. 1048. 536. 160. 329. 46. 7867. 14925. 168. 20970. 1570. 225. 7000 . 72. 182. 11. 160. 441. 123. 29. / 408. Table A-4. Continued—Personal consumption expenditures, nondurables, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Pro j e c t e d No. 97 102 109 110 1 12 115 1 16 1 17 119 120 121 122 128 129 130 152 155 158 160 Secto r Ti t l e El e c t r i c L i g hting a n d W i r i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s Musical I n s t ruments a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation W a t e r and Sanit a r y S e r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Trade Reta il Tra de Other Fe deral E n t e r p r i s e s D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Impo r t s Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d Re st of W o r l d I n d ustry 1963 1967 266. 71. 10 . 92. 256. 1A 17. 603. 1537. 2562. 370 . 17. 167. 50. 23090. 63654. 9. 1181. -97. -171. 390 . 105. 9. 133. 464. 1626. 789. 1679. 2735. 372. 66 . 230 . 62. 27653. 76545. 0 . 1782. -88. -281. 1973 50 1. 102. 13. 190. 791. 2500. 849. 1980. 3275. 484. 83. 308. 74. 33623. 94231. 0 . 1279. -142. -205. 1980 568. 1 13. 17. 257. 106 1. 3356. 1030 . 2284. 3824. 532. 107. 330. 67. 39488. 113924. 0 . 914. -169. -214. 1985 772. 155. 21. 323. 1396 . 4412. 1307 . 2666. 4481. 636. 130. 398. 76. 47136. 136736. 0 . 975. -200 . -214. 1990 1004. 202. 26. 399. 1775. 5612. 1626. 3056 . 5137. 712. 156. 441. 86. 54186. 160684. 0 . 1062. -235. -214. Table A -5. Personal consumption expenditures, services, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions o f 1972 dollars) Projected No. 2 7 50 70 117 1 18 1 19 120 121 123 124 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140' 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 154 155 158 160 161 Sector Title M e a t and Live sto ck P r o ducts Agricul t u r a l , Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s P e r i o d i c a l an d Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and C l a y P r o d u c t s R a i l r o a d Tran s p o r t a t i o n Loc al Trans it and Intercity Bu s e s Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S e r vices C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exce pt Radio a n d Tv E l e c t r i c U t i lities Gas Utilities W a t e r and Sanit a r y Servi c e s W h o l e s a l e Tra de R e t a i1 T rade Ba nk ing C r e d i t Ag e n c i e s and Finan ci al B r o k e r s Insurance O w n e r Oc c u p i e d Real Est ate Rea l Est at e H o t e l s and Lodging Pla ces P e r s o n a l an d Repair Services B a r b e r and Beauty Sho ps M i s c e l l a n e o u s Bu s i n e s s Se r v i c e s Ad verti si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Repai r M o t i o n Pictures A m u s e m e n t an d Recreation S e r v i c e s Do ctors' and Dentis ts * Servi c e s Hospitals O t h e r Medic al Se r v i c e s Educ a t i o n a l S e r vices Nonprofit Organizations Post Of fice O t h e r Sta te and Local Gove r n m e n t D i r e c t l y All o c a t e d Imp or ts Scr ap , Used, and S e c o n d h a n d Re s t of W o r l d I n d ustry Households 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 172. 0. 5. 75. 622. 3818. 584. 431. 1916 . 25. 6249. 7066 . 4855. 230 1 . 18. 78. 7517. 5049. 13389. 50347. 21524. 2659. 9289. 3935. 6 18. 165. 4233. 8998. 180 1. 5743. 14073. 10304. 3445. 6556. 9997. 1467. 761 . 2777. 0. -1644. 6431. 190 . 36. 0. 86 . 603. 3846 . 822. 275. 3467. 104 . 8920 . 8949. 5723. 2518. 16 . 135. 8527 . 8516. 16020. 60500. 25583. 3666. 10598. 4515. 1 154. 179. 4952. 10810. 1598. 6213. 17436. 13248. 3539. 8664. 11861. 1781 . 982. 3818. 8. -2306. 6442. 184. 35. 0. 93. 437. 3136. 848. 339. 4635. 123. 1420 1 . 13200. 6448. 3192. 18. 139. 11922. 7538. 20613. 80558. 3324 1 . 4765. 10774. 3702. 1635. 193. 6 116. 14652. 1887. 7233. 23429. 22262. 4625. 10689. 14113. 1975. 1372. 4745. 9. -3545. 5030 . 159. 29. 0. 94. 436. 3469. 859. 413. 6503. 145. 22620. 17967. 7042. 397 1 . 17. 134. 17283. 10027. 25945. 110692. 43349. 6225. 10919. 3727. 2088. 232. 7893. 19180. 2862. 8690. 31407. 31382. 5984. 12429. 16603. 2112. 16 13. 5756. 9. -5845. 3643. 159. 29. 0. 100. 454. 3760. 882. 538. 8693. 162. 31933. 22477. 7351 . 4948. 18. 139. 22185. 1 1776. 31943. 136085. 53286. 7946. 1 1539. 3930. 2475. 288. 9229. 24322. 3574. 100 18. 39889. 43597. 7560. 13756. 18775. 2232. 1991. 7772. 1 1. -8193. 3289. 160. 29. 0. 107 . 474. 4082. 907. 675. 11138. 178. 44444. 28256. 7957. 600 1 . 20. 146. 27454. 13644. 38767. 164546. 64436. 9842. 12258. 4143. 2882. 355. 10655. 30010. 4310. 11421. 50608. 59333. 9520. 14756. 21098. 2351. 2290. 9994. 13. -11739. 2971. Table A-6. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) _____________________________________________________ Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Sector T i t l e Da i r y and P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s Meat and Li ves tock P r o d u c t s Co tton Fo od and Fe ed Gra i n s Other Agricu l t u r a l P r o d u c t s F o r e s t r y and Fish e r y P r o d u c t s Iron and Ferr o a l l o y M i n i n g C o p p e r Ore Min i n g Ot h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g Coal M i n i n g C r u d e P e t roleum and N a t ural Gas Sto n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g Ch emi cal and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g New and Residential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n New Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n New Public Util i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other New C o n s t r u c t i o n Oil and Gas Well D r i l l i n g a n d E x p l o r a t i o n Ordnance C o m p l e t e Guid ed M i s s i l e s Meat P r o ducts Da i r y Produ c t s C a n n e d an d Fr ozen Foods Grai n Mill Pr o d u c t s B a k e r y Pr odu cts Suga r Confectionary Products A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s Sof t Drinks and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Foo d P r o d u c t s Toba c c o M a n u f a c t u r e r s Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d M i l l s Flo or Coverings Miscellaneous Textile Goods H o s i e r y and Knit Goods Ap par el Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Loggi nq Sa w m i l l s a n d P l a n i n g M i l l s Millwork, Plyw o o d and Oth e r M o o d P r o d u c t s Wood e n Cont a i n e r s H o u s e h o l d F u r niture Other Fu rni ture a n d F i x t u r e s Paper Produ c t s Paperboard Newspaper Printing and Publishing P e r i odical an d Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g In dus trial I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Ag r i c u l t u r a l C h e m i c a l s 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 2. 662. -69. 246. 697. 86. -65. -5. -1. 0. 20. 2. -1. 39037. 19052. 6768. 2865. 3213. -4. -35. 239. 15. 39. 81. 24. 142. 32. 53. 32. 136. 32. 41. 99. 60. 15. 69. 47. -8. 49. 67. 1. 298. 1498. 115. 42. 4. 99. 58. 48. 26. -6. 195. 122. 925. 60. 7. 31. 6. 8. 214. 296. 14. 6. 33001. 25218. 9937. 3273. 3046. 134. 104. 276. 55. 295. 77. 25. 55. 48. 169. 49. 92. 225. 130. 120. 101. 40. 280. 54. 2. 87. 95. 3. 299. 2021. 261. 45. 2. 154. 194. 185. 87. 8. 1446. -12. 519. -20. 132. 83. 6. 29. 247. 765. 14. 4. 51222. 25779. 1337 1 . 3402. 2739. -29. 230. 381. 77. 665. 208. 40. 151. 185. 568. 139. 278. 485. 346. 361. 159. 139. 624. 300. 2. 308. 460. 2. 700. 2614. 1020. 394. 4. 435. 738. 554. 147. 21. 628. 53. 40 1. 332. 55. 28. 27. 11. 105. 348. 61. 17. 49401. 24052. 13870. 3615. 4084. 97. 194. 573. 28. 306. 262. 15. 63. 80. 288. 187. 261. 181. 381. 345. 77. 170. 539. 130. 11. 115. 241. 7. 574. 2905. 484. 193. 18. 195. 284. 511. 57. 25. 760. 63. 500. 402. 67. 28. 36. 13. 129. 448. 75. 22. 65618. 27507. 15912. 4217. 4740. 115. 245. 700. 32. 398. 327. 17. 77. 99. 400. 273. 323. 202. 477. 446. 105. 242. 674. 181. 13. 128. 340. 8. 702. 3455. 642. 261. 22. 237. 351. 681. 76. 22. 710. 59. 481. 375. 62. 22. 37. 11. 122. 446 . 7 1. 22. 69402. 34387. 20105. 490 1 . 5398. 106. 303. 660 . 27. 400. 315. 15. 72. 95. 430. 307. 310. 175. 461. 542. 109. 252. 652. 179. 13. 111. 37 1. 7. 802. 4144. 658. 273. 21. 220. 318. 648. 70. Table A -6. Continued—Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars)________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Proj e c t e d No. 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 Sec t o r Tit le M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs Drugs C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s and All i e d Pr o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s T i r e s and Inn er Tube s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s Plastic Products L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Industrial L e a ther F o o t w e a r and Other Leathe r P r o d u c t s Glass C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e Pr o d u c t s S t r u c t u r a l Cl ay Products P o t t e r y a n d R e l a t e d Pr o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and C l a y P r o d u c t s Bl a s t F u r naces and Basic Ste el P r o d u c t s Ir on and Steel Foundries and F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Copper and Copper P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Al u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s O t h e r P r i m a r y Nonf e r r o u s P r o d u c t s Me t a l C o n t a i n e r s H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d S t r uctural Metal S c r e w M a c h i n e P r o ducts M e t a l St a m p i n g s Cu tle ry, Hand Tools and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pr o d u c t s Engin es , Tu r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y ' C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ip ment Metal Working Machinery S p e cial I n d ustry M a c h i n e s G e n e r a l Industrial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop P r o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and Per ip heral Equ i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Other O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e I n d ustry M a c h i n e s E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment E l e c t r i c a l In du strial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c Li g h t i n g a n d W i r i n g Ra d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Set s T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s R a d i o a n d C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec tri ca l P r o d u c t s Motor Vehicles A i rc raft S h i p and Boa t B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Equipment Cy cle s, B i c y c l e s and Parts O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equipment S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s O p t i c a l and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u i pment a n d S u p p l i e s Watch e s , C l o c k s and Clo ck O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s 1963 27. 13. 12. 106. 78. 51. 215. 56. 38. 52. -13. -69. 101. 15. 14. 23. 47. 139. 10. 1 17. 77. 18. 53. 21. 761. 25. 59. 102. 342. 595. 2657. 2574. 946 . 2319. 2921 . 1969. 24. 1087. 409. 1370 . 1488. 703. 780. 103. 277. 1266. 1288. 90. 290. 8303. 1091. 446. 1245. 10. 706 . 574. 348. 119. 185. 9. 1967 43. 42. -19. 123. 110. 64. 581. 47. 77. 75. -8. 25. 50 . 7 1. 23. 18. 48. 652. 17. 165. 156 . 111. 92. 36. 1247. 75. 36. 1 16. 538. 1053. 4083. 3182. 1414. 4333. 4203. 2489. 50. 2376. 669. 2112. 2160. 1155. 783. 146. 248. 2026 . 2329. 174. 297. 10579. 5250. 939. 2139. 56. 1283. 827. 613. 206 . 687. 5. 1973 140 . 430. 245. 414. 480. 203. 1540. 293. 286. 566. 54. 202. 293. 435. 55. 41. 215. 1510. 45. 341. 472. 266. 258. 138. 1726 . 166. 136. 286 . 817. 1674. 5088. 5017. 1894. 4012. 4525. 3070 . 126. 4055. 1081. 2716. 2907. 1472. 1401. 390. 472. 2953. 3025. 479. 676 . 22746. 3443. 1339. 1772. 77. 3960 . 1013. 1048. 512. 1856. 6. 1980 80. 159. 163. 208. 200 . 95. 719. 144. 138. 179. 19. 73. 136 . 191. 20. 17. 61. 640 . 210. 353. 259. 122. 133. 6 1. 2493. 66. 186 . 169. 100 1. 1827. 6400 . 5499. 2578. 4846. 4801 . 4025. 144. 7498. 1862. 2836. 3270. 1585. 1495. 297. 415. 3788. 3554. 274. 866. 24296. 2515. 2332. 2132. 67. 3714. 1299. 1455. 877. 2564. 26. 1985 104. 20 1. 274. 291. 284. 126. 945. 197. 164. 233. 20. 80. 178. 241. 22. 21. 79. 778. 274. 438. 377. 158. 172. 77 . 2944. 77 . 237. 2 18. 1 184. 2212. 7641. 7075. 3135. 6 154. 5930. 4968. 167. 9821. 2245. 3415. 3917. 1917. 1837. 374. 512. 4526. 4247. 400 . 1071. 26639. 3351 . 2819. 2769. 84. 5276. 1549. 1779.' 1057. 3181. 36. 1990 101 . 188. 356. 311. 298. 128. 958. 208. 160. 209. 17. 68. 179. 234. 19. 19. 76 . 731. 275. 447. 425. 157. 177. 75. 3423. 69. 232. 232. 1334. 2650. 9207. 8376. 3814. 7376. 7349. 5985. 144. 13078. 2708. 4079. 4784. 2273. 2179. 412. 585. 556 1. 5056. 439. 1264. 28881. 4136. 3453. 3545. 100. 5789. 1865. 2'164. 1282. 4035. 39. Table A-6. Continued—Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 14 1 15 1 16 1 17 119 120 121 122 124 129 130 133 135 143 155 158 162 Se ct or Title J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e M u s ical Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g Goods Othe r M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Tru ck Tran s p o r t a t i o n W a t e r Tran s p o r t a t i o n Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc e p t Radio and Tv W h o l e s a l e Trade Reta il Tra de I n s urance Real Estate Moti o n Pictures Directly Allocated Imports Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d Inv e n t o r y V a l u ation A d j u s t m e n t 1963 1967 9. 304. 307 . 378. 647 . 17. 18. 3. 950 . 3544. 3441. 0. 2799. 9. 29. -2265. -251. 38. 319. 40 1 . 538. 745. 29. 45. 10. 1349. 4829. 3628. 0. 2788. -69. -124. -4318. -2127. 1973 1 17. 609 . 630 . 795. 1109. 45. 60. 16. 1896 . 7076 . 6368. 0. 4169. 351. 0. -5909. -19428. 1980 1985 1990 59. 605. 550. 942. 1326. 46. 81 . 32. 2574. 8762. 7686. 1. 5821. 168. -74. -6965. -2898. 83. 762. 670 . 1120. 1606 . 59. 94. 41 . 3031 . 10382. 9334. 2. 7516. 209. -72. -8337. -3773. 89. 915. 776 . 1280. 1896. 63. 111. 38. 3611. 12332. 11147. 2. 7829. 186. -82. -8877. -3735. Table A -7 . Nonresidential investment, total, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990 (Million* o f 1872 dollar*) Projected No. 15 16 17 19 20 23 36 43 45 46 62 63 73 76 78 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 115 116 117 119 120 121 124 129 130 135 158 Sector Title N e w and R e s idential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n N e w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Bu i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n N e w Pub l i c U t i lity C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other New Constr u c t i o n Oil and Gas Well Drill i n g a n d E x p l o r a t i o n C o m p l e t e G u i d e d Mi s s i l e s Flo o r C o v e r i n g s M i l lwork, P l y w o o d and Oth e r W o o d P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d Furniture O t h e r F u r n i t u r e and Fixtures M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s Plastic Products P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Cop per P r o d u c t s Me t a l C o n t a i n e r s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Met al Cu tle ry , Hand Tools and General H a r d w a r e O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pro du cts Engin es , Tu r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s Farm Machinery Construction Mining and Oilfield Machinery M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equip me nt Metal Working Machinery S p e cial I n d ustry Machi n e s G e n eral Indus trial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop P r o ducts C o m p u t e r s and Per ip heral E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Other Off i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e Indus t r y Machi n e s E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment Elec t r i c a l Indus tr ial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c L i g hting and W i r i n g Ra d i o and Tv Rec e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e an d T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Ra d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t E l e c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ctrical P r o d u c t s Motor Vehicles A i rcra ft S h i p and Bo at Bu i l d i n g and R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment Cy cles, B i c y c l e s and Parts O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ipment S c i e n t i f i c and Co n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l and De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s O p t i c a l and Oph t h a l m i c Equipment P h o t o g r a p h i c Equi pment and S u p p l i e s Watches, Clocks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s M u s i c a l Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Truck Trans p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exce pt Radio a n d Tv W h o l e s a l e Trade Reta i l Trad e Rea l Es tate Sc rap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 12. 19052. 6768. 2096. 3213. 0. 68. 7. 199. 1479. 23. 0. 41. 12. 664. 15. 299. 556. 2591 . 2496. 929. 2239. 2884. 1909. 10. 1060. 388. 1301. 1481. 681. 542. 66. 139. 1282. 1261. 99. 249. 7485. 603. 475. 1219. 8. 165. 534. 320. 116. 172. 0. 283. 272. 294. 513. 7. 17. 950. 3073. 3349. 330. -214 0. 14. 25218. 9937. 2535. 3046. 34. 102. 9. 241. 1972. 36. 0. 45. 13. 1128. 24. 388. 982. 3596. 3107. 1369. 4138. 4092. 2337. 7. 2265. 619. 1960 . 2089. 1079. 671. 78. 149. 1933. 1828. 20. 254. 10946. 2937. 710. 2184. 35. 233. 736. 577. 198. 610. 1. 239. 343. 403. 619. 9. 42. 1349. 4235. 3327. 437. -3219. 22. 25779. 13371. 3011. 2739. 98. 200 . 5. 323. 2406. 35. 1. 63. 14. 1379. 35. 539. 1347. 4766. 4596. 1732. 3585. 4197. 2602. 8. 3700. 1011. 2269. 26 19. 1163. 1022. 10 1. 206. 2717. 2569. 28. 431. 20944. 2489. 1116. 1627. 41. 466. 789. 895. 506. 1556. 1. 422. 344. 584. 904. 11. 57. 1896. 6113. 5407. 447. -5095. 22. 24052. 13870. 3166. 4084. 142. 263. 5. 397. 2825. 28. 0. 78. 16 . 2160. 50. 792. 1686. 6261. 5298. 2499. 4653. 4675. 3811. 8. 7249. 1834. 2643. 3142. 1457. 1317. 177. 274. 3682. 3390. 31. 755. 22919. 2126. 2225. 2074. 51. 510. 1207. 1380. 843. 2402. 2. 515. 415. 755. 1144. 15. 78. 2574. 7908. 6770. 435. -6083. 23. 27507. 15912. 3653. 4740. 182. 321. 5. 468. 3354. 27. 0. 87. 16. 2490. 60. 941. 2026. 7458. 6807. 3030. 5906. 5762. 4691. 8. 9451. 2211. 3147. 3750. 1747. 1595. 216. 322. 4385. 4046. 30. 927. 24834. 2887. 2675. 2687. 6 0. 584. 1440. 1680. 1013. 2955. 2. 642. 490. 876. 136 / • 18. 91,. 3031. 9268. 7993. 527. -7304. 27. 34387. 20105. 4306. 5398. 246. 404. 4. 563. 4045. 27. 0. 101. 16. 2945. 70. 1135. 2470. 9029. 8100. 3709. 7 130. 7180. 57 19. 9. 1266 1. 2677. 3804. 4619. 2105. 1939. 26 1. 402. 5392. 4868. 30. 1131. 27143. 3709. 3304. 346 1. 72. 697. 1764. 2065. 1240. 3798. 2. 790. 592. 1039. 166 0. 22. 107. 36 11. 11227. 9687. 6 93. -7727. Table A-8. Nonresidential investment, equipm ent, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Million* of 1972 dollar*) Projected No. 23 36 43 45 46 62 63 73 76 78 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 10 1 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 1 10 111 1 12 113 115 116 117 1 19 120 121 124 129 130 158 Secto r Ti t l e Co m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s Flo or Co verings Mil lwo rk , Plyw o o d and O t h e r M o o d P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d Furniture Other Fu rni ture and F i x t u r e s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub ber P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c Pr oducts P r i m a r y Copp e r a n d C o p p e r P r o d u c t s Me tal Cont a i n e r s Fab r i c a t e d Structural Meta l Cutlery, H a n d Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Oth er F a b r icated P r o d u c t s Engines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n Mining a n d O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y Material H a n d l i n g Equ i p m e n t Me tal W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Sp eci al Industry M a c h i n e s Ge ner al Indus trial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop P r o ducts Com p u t e r s a n d P e r ipheral E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Oth e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e Industry M a c h i n e s Electric Tr a n s m i s s i o n Equ i p m e n t Elect ric al In dustrial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances Electric Li ght ing a n d W i r i n g Rad io and Tv Rec e i v i n g Set s T e l e p h o n e an d T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t E l e c tronic Comp o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s Mo t o r V e h icles A i rcraft Ship and Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r Ra i l r o a d Equi pment Cycles, Bicycles and P a r t s Othe r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Op tic al and Opht h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c Equ ipment a n d S u p p l i e s Watch es , Clocks a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s Music al Instr u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g G o o d s Oth er M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Ra i l r o a d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Truck Tran s p o r t a t i o n Wat e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Ai r Trans p o r t a t i o n C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Radio a n d Tv W h o l e s a l e Trad e Reta il Trade Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 0. 68. 7. 199. 1479. 23. 0. 41. 12. 664. 15. 299. 556. 2591. 2496. 929. 2239. 2884. 1909. 10. 1060 . 388. 130 1. 1481. 681. 542. 66. 139. 1282. 126 1. 99. 249. 7485. 603. 475. 1219. 8. 111. 534. 320. 116 . 172. 0. 283. 272. 294. 513. 7. 17 . 950. 3068. 3338. -1415. 34. 102. 9. 241. 1972. 36. 0. 45. 13. 1 128. 24. 388. 982. 3596. 3107. 1369. 4138. 4092. 2337 . 7. 2265. 619. 1960 . 2089. 1079. 67 1. 78. 149. 1933. 1828. 20. 254. 10946. 2937 . 710. 2184. 35. 172. 736. 577 . 198. 610. 1. 239. 343. 403. 619. 9. 42. 1349. 4235. 3310. -3030. 98. 200 . 5. 323. 2406. 35. 1. 63. 14. 1379. 35. 539. 1347. 4766 . 4596. 1732. 3585. 4197. 2602. 8. 3700 . 1011. 2269. 26 19. 1163. 1022. 10 1. 206. 27 17. 2569. 28. 431. 20944. 2489. 1116. 1627. 41. 299. 789. 895. 506. 1556. 1. 422. 344. 584. 904. 11. 57. 1896. 6113. 5359. -4968. 142. 263. 5. 397. 2825. 28. 0. 78. 16. 2160. 50. 792. 1686. 626 1 . 5298. 2499. 4653. 4675. 3811. 8. 7249. 1834. 2643. 3142. 1457. 1317. 177. 274. 3682. 3390. 31. 755. 22919. 2126. 2225. 2074. 51. 346. 1207. 1380. 843. 2402. 2. 515. 415. 755. 1144. 15. 78. 2574. 7907. 6722. -5920. 182. 321. 5. 468. 3354. 27. 0. 87. 16. 2490. 60. 941. 2026. 7458. 6807. 3030. 5906. 5762. 4691. 8. 9451. 2211. 3147. 3750. 1747. 1595. 216. 322. 4385. 4046. 30. 927. 24834. 2887. 2675. 2687. 60. 407. 1440. 1680. 1013. 2955. 2. 642. 490. 876. 1367. 18. 91. 3031. 9266. 7941. -7 129. 246. 404. 4. 563. 4045. 27. 0. 101. 16. 2945. 70. 1135. 2470. 9029. 8100. 3709. 7130. 7180. 5719. 9. 1266 1. 2677. 3804. 4619. 2105. 1939. 26 1. 402. 5392. 4868. 30. 1131. 27 143. 3709. 3304. 3461. 72. 482. 1764. 2065. 1240. 3798. 2. 790. 592. 1039. 1659. 22. 107. 3611. 11226. 9623. -7519. Table A -9. Non residential investment, structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (M illion! o f 1972 dollar*) Projected No. 15 16 17 19 20 10S 119 129 130 135 153 Sector Title New and R e s idential Bui l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n New N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Bu i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n New Pub l i c U t i l i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other Ne w Co n s t r u c t i o n Oil and Gas Well Drilling and E x p l o r a t i o n O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ipment Truck Tran s p o r t a t i o n W h o l e s a l e Tra de Reta i1 T rade Real Esta te Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d 1963 1967 1973 1930 1985 1990 12. 19052. 6768. 2096 . 3213. 54. 1. 5. 10. 330 . -725. 14. 25218. 9937 . 2535. 3046 . 6 1. 0. 0. 18. 437 . - 189. 22. 25779. 13371. 3011. 2739. 167 . 0. 1. 48. 447. -127. 22. 24052. 13870. 3166. 4084. 164. 0. 1. 48. 435. -163. 23. 27507. 15912. 3653. 4740 . 173. 0. 1. 52*. 527. -176. 27. 34387. 20105. 4306 . 5398. 215. 0. 1. 64. 693. -208. Table A-10. Residential investment, structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 15 19 108 1 17 119 120 129 130 135 158 Sect or T i t l e New and Resid ent ia l B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n All Oth er New Co n s t r u c t i o n Oth er Tran s p o r t a t i o n Equipment Railr o a d Tran s p o r t a t i o n Truck Transpor t a t i o n Water Tran s p o r t a t i o n W h o l e s a l e Tra de Retail Tra de Real Esta te Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 --------- 1 1990 39025. 769. 487 . 2. 6. 0. 43. 93. 2469. -268. 32987. 738. 10 18. 0. 2. 1. 6. 30 1 . 2351 . -1000. 51200. 391 . 3254. 0. 6. 2. 20 . 96 1. 3722. -1081. 49380. 449. 3097 . 0. 6. 3. 18. 916. 5387. -917. 65595. 565. 4533. 0. 9. 5. 27 . 1340 . 6990 . -1075. 69375. 595. 4938. 0. 10. 5. 29. 1460 . 7 136. -1190. Table A -1 1. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 Sector Tit l e D a i r y and P o u l t r y P r o ducts M e a t a n d Li ves tock Produ c t s Cotton Food a n d Feed Grains O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l Products F o r e s t r y an d Fish e r y P r o d u c t s Iron a n d F e r r o a l l o y Mining C o p p e r Ore M i n i n g O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore Min i n g Coal M i n i n g C r u d e P e t r o l e u m and Nat ural Gas S t o n e an d Cl ay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g C h e m i c a l and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g Ordnance C o m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s Meat Products D a i r y Pr o d u c t s C a n n e d and Froz en Foo ds G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s B a k e r y P r o ducts Sugar Confectionary Products Alcoholic Beverages Soft Drin k s and F l a vorings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts Tobacco Manufacturers Fab ric s, Ya rn and Thr e a d M i l l s Fl o o r Cov e r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s T e x t i l e Good s H o s i e r y and Knit Goods A p p arel Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Loggi ng S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mills M i l l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Oth er W o o d P r o d u c t s Wooden Containers H o u s e h o l d Fur n i t u r e O t h e r F u r n iture and Fixtures P a p e r Produ c t s Paperboard N e w s p a p e r P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g P e r i o d i c a l and Book Print in g, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g I n d u s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s A g r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c Rub b e r S y n t h e t i c Fib er s Drugs C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s 1963 2. 662. -69. 246 . 697 . 86. -65. -5. -1. 0. 20. 2. -1. -4. -35. 239. 15. 39. 81. 24. 142. 32. 53. 32. 136 . 32. 41. 31. 60. 15. 69. 47 . -8. 49. 60. 1. 99. 19. 115. 42. 4. 99. 58. 48. 26 . 27. 13. 12. 106. 78. 1967 -6. 195. 122. 925. 60. 7. 31. 6. 8. 214. 296. 14. 6. 134. 70. 276. 55. 295. 77. 25. 55. 48. 169. 49. 92. 225. 130. 18. 101. 40. 280. 54. 2. 87. 86. 3. 58. 48. 26 1. 45. 2. 154. 194. 185. 87. 43. 42. -19. 123. 110. 1973 8. 1446. -12. 519. -20 . 132. 83. 6. 29. 247 . 765. 14. 4. -29. 132. 381. 77. 665. 208. 40 . 151. 185. 568. 139. 278. 485. 346. 16 1. 159. 139. 624. 300 . 2. 308. 455. 2. 377. 207. 1020 . 394. 4. 435. 738. 554. 147. 140. 430. 245. 414. 480. 1980 21. 628. 53. 40 1. 332. 55. 28. 27 . 11. 105. 348. 6 1. 17. 97. 53. 573. 28. 306 . 262. 15. 63. 80 . 288. 187. 26 1 . 181. 381. 82. 77. 170. 539. 130. 11. 115. 236 . 7. 177. 80. 484. 193. 18. 195. 284. 511. 57. 80. 159. 163. 208. 200 . 1985 25. 760 . 63. 500 . 402. 67. 28. 36. 13. 129. 448. 75. 22. 115. 63. 700 . 32. 398. 327. 17. 77. 99. 400 . 273. 323. 202. 477. 124. 105. 242. 674. 181. 13. 128. 335. 8. 234. 10 1. 642. 26 1. 22. 237 . 351. 681. 76 . 104. 20 1. 274. 291. 284. 1990 22. 710. 59. 481. 375. 62. 22. 37. 11. 122. 446. 7 1. 22. 106. 57. 660 . 27. 400 . 315. 15. 72. 95. 430. 307. 310. 175. 46 1. 138. 109. 252. 652. 179. 13. 111. 367. 7. 239. 99. 658. 273. 21. 220. 318. 648. 70. 10 1. 188. 356. 311. 298. Table A -11. Continued—Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Pro j ected No. 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 119 Sector Ti t l e Pai n t s and Alli ed P r o d u c t s Petroleum Refining and Related Products Tires and In ner Tubes M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c Products Le ather T a n n i n g and I n d u s t r i a l L e a ther Footw e a r an d Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s Glas s Cement and Co n c r e t e P r o d u c t s Structural Clay P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Cl a y P r o d u c t s Bla st Furna c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s Iron and Steel F o u n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Copp er and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Products Oth er P r i mary N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s Me tal Cont a i n e r s H e a t i n g Apparatus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s Fabr i c a t e d S t r uctural Metal Scr e w M a c h i n e P r o d u c t s Meta l Sta m p i n g s Cutle ry , Hand Tools a n d G e n eral H a r d w a r e Othe r Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s Engines, Turbines a n d G e n e r a t o r s Fa rm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y Mater i a l Handling Equ i p m e n t Meta l U o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Sp eci al Industry M a c h i n e s Gener al Industr ial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Sh op Pr o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and Peri p h e r a l E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e In dustry M a c h i n e s Elect r i c Tra n s m i s s i o n E q u i p m e n t Electrical In dus trial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances Elect r i c Li ghting a n d H i r i n g Rad io and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t Elec t r o n i c C o m p o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s E l e c trical P r o d u c t s Mo t o r V e h icles Ai rcr af t Shi p and Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Equ ip ment Cycles, Bi c y c l e s a n d Pa r t s Othe r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Optic al an d O p h t h a l m i c Eq u i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u i pment a n d S u p p l i e s Hatch es , Cloc ks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s Jewe l r y an d S i l v e r w a r e Musical Instr u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goods Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1963 51. 215. 56. 15. 52. -13. -69. 10 1. 15. 14. 23. 47 . 139. 10. 76*. 77. 18. 41. 21. 97. 25. 59. 87. 43. 39. 66. 78. 17. 80. 37. 60. 14. 27. 21. 69. 7. 22. 238. 37. 138. -16. 27. -9. 41. 818. 488. -29. 26. 3. 55. 40. 28. 3. 13. 8. 9. 21. 35. 81. 128. 1967 1973 198 0 1985 1990 64. 581. 47. 40. 75. -8. 25. 50. 71. 23. 18. 48. 652. 17. 120. 156. 111. 78. 36 . 119. 75. 36. 92. 150. 72. 487. 75. 45. 195. 111. 152. 43. 110. 51. 153. 71. 77. 112. 68. 99. 93. 501. 155. 43. -367. 2314. 229. -45. 21. 33. 91. 36. 8. 78. 4. 38. 79. 58. 135. 123. 203. 1540. 293. 251. 565. 54. 202. 293. 435. 55. 41. 215. 1510. 45. 278. 472. 266. 244. 138. 348. 166. 136. 251. 278. 327. 322. 421. 162. 427. 328. 468. 1 18. 355. 70. 447. 288. 309. 380. 289. 266. 236. 456. 452. 245. 1802. 953. 223. 145. 35. 241. 224. 152. 7. 300. 5. 117. 187. 286. 211. 198. 95. 719. 144. 110. 179. 19. 73. 136. 191. 20. 17. 61. 640. 210. 275. 259. 122. 117. 61. 332. 66 . 186. 120. 208. 141. 139. 201. 78. 193. 127. 215. 136. 249. 29. 193. 128. 127. 178. 120. 141. 106. 164. 243. 112. 1378. 389. 107. 59. 16. 107. 92. 74. 34. 163. 24. 59. 90. 136. 187. 176. 126. 945. 197. 138. 233. 20. 80. 178. 241. 22. 21. 79. 778. 274. 351. 377. 158. 156. 77. 454. 77. 237. 159. 244. 186. 183. 268. 104. 248. 168. 277. 159. 371. 34. 268. 167. 170. 242. 158. 190. 142. 201. 370. 144. 1805. 464. 144. 82. 23. 158. 109. 99. 44. 226. 35. 83. 120. 180. 243. 229. 128. 958. 208. 133. 209. 17. 68. 179. 234. 19. 19. 76. 731. 275. 346. 425. 157. 161. 75. 478. 69. 232. 162. 199. 180. 177. 276. 104. 246. 169. 265. 136. 417. 31. 275. 165. 168. 241. 151. 183. 168. 187. 409. 132. 1738. 427. 149. 84. 27. 155. 101. 99. 42. 237. 36. 89. 124. 184. 241. 226. Table A -1 1. Continued—Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions to 1972 dollars) Projected No. 120 121 122 129 133 143 155 158 162 Se ctor Tit le Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P i p e l i n e Tran s p o r t a t i o n W h o l e s a l e Tra de Insurance M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Import s Scrap* Used* and S e c o n d h a n d I n v e n t o r y V a l uation A d j u s t m e n t 1963 10 . 1. 3. 428. 0. 9. 29. 143. -251. 1967 1973 1980 1935 1990 20. 3. 10. 588. 0. -69. -124. -99. -2127. 32. 3. 16. 943. 0. 351. 0. 267. -19428. 28. 3. 32. 835. 1. 168. -74. 36. -2898. 37. 4. 41. 1087. 2. 209. -72. 43. -3773. 36. 4. 38. 1076 . 2. 186. -82. 40. -3735. Table A -12. N et exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Proj ected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 19 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Sector Ti t l e Da i r y and Po ultry P r o d u c t s Meat and Liv es toc k P r o d u c t s Cott on Food and Feed Grai ns Othe r Agricultural P r o d u c t s Fo r e s t r y and Fishery P r o d u c t s Agricultural, F o r estry a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Iron and F e r r oalloy M i n i n g Copp e r Or e Mini ng Other Non f e r r o u s O r e M i n i n g Coal Mini n g Cru d e P e t r o l e u m and Natural Gas Stone and Cl ay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g Ch emi cal and Fer t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g New Nonresid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other New C o n s t r u c t i o n Or d n a n c e C o m p l e t e Guid e d M i s s i l e s Mea t Pr o d u c t s Dairy P r o ducts C a n n e d and Frozen Foo ds Gra in Mill Products Bak e r y Produ c t s Sug ar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Produ c t s A l c o h o l i c B e v erages So ft Drinks an d F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s Tobacco M a n u f a c t u r e r s Fabrics, Yar n and T h r e a d M i l l s Flo or Cov e r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Textile Go o d s H o s i e r y and Knit Go o d s Appar el Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Loggi ng S a w m i l l s and P l a ning M i l l s Mill wor k, Plywo od a n d Ot h e r W o o d P r o d u c t s Woo d e n Containers H o u s e h o l d Fu rni ture Other Furniture and F i x t u r e s Pap e r P r o ducts Paperboard N e w s p a p e r P r i nting and P u b l i s h i n g Periodical and Book Pri nt ing, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g In dus trial Inorganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricu l t u r a l C h e m icals M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemi cal P r o d u c t s Pl a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s a n d S y n t h e t i c Rub b e r 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 13. -281. 464. 1972. 557. -688. 16. -473. -19. -474. 564. -1614. -103. -35. 4. 0. 261. 0. -502. 196. -15. 449. -6. -1163. -59. -46 1. 37. 506. 584. -146. -53. -505. 4. -430. 3. 86. -611. -396 . -4. 14. -25. -823. 15. 3. 158. -13. 556. 105. 238. 367. 16. -284. 401. 1832. 605. -793. 11. -588. -16. -391. 505. -1389. -64. 38. 22. 0. 211. 17. -786. 14. -118. 506 . -21. -1072. -72. -691. 28. 417. 676 . -349. -43. -400 . 3. -863. 9. 239. -677 . -484. 0. 28. -104. -984. 24. -1. 137. 14. 651. 131. 138. 424. 19. -123. 612. 4579. 2002. -868. 14. -386. 14. -813. 558. -3603. -187. -86. 26 . 0. 374. 15. -834. -167. -74. 495. -37. -994. -100. -852. 54. 674. 874. -289. -57. -238. -90 . -2081. 23. 505. -880 . -654. -2. 59. -308. -697 . 38. -10. 149. -15. 1199. 160. 180. 7 17. 21. -59. 822. 3768. 2187. -933. 14. -389. 25. -868. 594. -7136. -163. -68. 4 1. 1. 1027. 310. -1296. -266. -131. 584. -41. -833. -100 . -914. 87. 985. 970 . -129. -56. -110. -99. -2686. 81. 675. -901. -628. -2. 94. -415. -275. 58. -17. 190 . -41. 1667 . 242. 229. 904. 33. 18. 942. 3897. 2490. -86 1. 15. -369. 32. -871. 690 . -7786. -157. -66. 49. 1. 1031. 311. -1123. -343. -133. 596 . -44. -715. -93. -919. 110. 1155. 1041. 32. -47. -2. -106. -3005. 138. 819. -865. -585. 0. 112. -503. 32. 70. -24. 205. -90. 1988. 259. 272.' 1037 . 36. 100. 1130. 4255. 260 1 . -893. 16. -369. 43. -924. 900 . -9492. -145. -59. 6 1. 1. 1024. 312. -1469. -448. -139. 651. -49. -669. -87. -964. 142. 1421. 1187. 208. -36. 99. -115. -3593. 217. 1025. -876. -575. 2. 139. -617. 363. 88. -36. 235. -164. 2425. 264. ■336. 1236. Table A -1 2 . Continued—Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990 (Million of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 Sector Title S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs Drugs C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s and A l l i e d Products P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s T i r e s and Inn er Tubes M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s Plastic Products L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Industrial L e a t h e r F o o t w e a r and Other Lea th er P r o d u c t s Glass C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e Pr o d u c t s S t r u c t u r a l Cl ay P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y and R e l a t e d Pr o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Clay P r o d u c t s Bla s t F u r naces and Basic Stee l P r o d u c t s Iro n a n d Steel F o u n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Copp e r and Copper P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y A l u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s Other Primary Nonferrous Products Metal Containers H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Met al S c r e w M a c h i n e P r o ducts M e t a l Sta m p i n g s Cutlery* Hand Tools and General H a r d w a r e O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d P r o ducts Eng ine s* T u r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ip ment Metal Working Machinery S p e c i a l I n d ustry M a c h i n e s G e n e r a l In dus trial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop P r o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and Peri p h e r a l E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s a n d Other Offi c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e I n d ustry Ma c h i n e s E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u i pment E l e c t r i c a l Industrial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c Li g h t i n g a n d W i r i n g R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e an d T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s Motor Vehicles A i rcra ft S h i p and Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment Cycle s, B i c y c l e s and Parts O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i pment Scientific and Controlling Instruments M e d i c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s O p t i c a l and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i pment Phot.ographi c E q u ipment and S u p p l i e s W a t ches* C l o c k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s 1963 87. 208. 87. 41. -230 . 55. 25. 59. -18. -183. -12. -18. -13. -10 1. 18. -461. 45. -31. -81. -595. 25. 44. 295. -19. 20. 40. 77. 400 . 168. 1374. 121. 516. 646. 464. 0. 212. 21. 252. 169. 190. 62. 32. -145. 17. 267. 128. 34. 1135. 1100. 21. 179. -119. 8. 387. 86. -34. 64. -113. -191. -148. 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 31. 183. 104. 55. -550. -39. -60. 60. -59. -429. -38. -16. -3. -186. -15. -1612. 67. -7 19. -95. -1039. 12. 24. 240. -41. 212. 7. 79. 373. 98. 1479. 131. 164. 465. 458. 82. 415. 41. 384. 136. 229. -17. 82. -498. 10. 323. 179. 59. -611. 1743. -7. 151. -212. -23. 465. 92. -78. 121. -205. -267. -271. 132. 426 . 160. 78. -1946. -429. -195. -8. -61. -992. -100 . -102. -37. -272. 2. -2282. 127. -253. 67. -1093. -0. 66. 313. -139. 478. -85. -253. 643. 13. 2113. 217. 336. 657. 227. 104. 1565. -469. 596 . 431. 302. -261. -62. -2124. -24. 215. 521. -27. -5340. 3427. 1 15. 166. -878. -14. 399. 154. -200 . 249. -343. -24 1. -570 . 220. 634. 220. 105. -1321. -664. -146. -48. -58. -1490. -35. -113. -24. -308. 35. -2760. 245. -241. 124. -1137. -0. 74. 444. -199. 752. -94. -385. 797 . 166. 297 1. 236. 486. 887. 267. 128. 2734. -791. 811. 610. 379. -267. -135. -3385. 2. 288. 1173. -65. -6143. 5448. 177. 158. -1182. -5. 431. 218. -27 1. 450. -409. -229. -768. 290. 825. 258. 122. -2271. -1033. -279. -113. -52. -2047. 36. -119. -24. -340. 57. -3224. 309. -155. 176. -1123. -2. 81. 482. -262. 928. -104. -584. 856. 215. 3756. 239. 620 . 1033. 194. 136. 3781. -1087. 904. 729. 408. -373. -249. -4231. 16. 228. 1575. -183. -6528. 6658. 236. 141. -1719. -6. 370. 244. -356. 648. -467. -205. -97 1. 382. 1121. 314. 147. -2841. -1491. -452. -210. -48. -2892. 141. -131. -26. -394. 86. -3938. 397. -84. 243. -1172. -2. 93. 554. -356. 1174. -120. -876. 957. 322. 5034. 238. 830. 1295. 104. 153. 5367. -1480. 1007 . 899. 452. -532. -424. -5477. 41. 111. 2185. -374. -8209. 8218. 310 . 110. -2108. -11. 283. 277. -490. 990 . -562. -171. -1280. n Table A -12. Continued—Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected 'Ho. 116 117 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 143 144 148 150 152 155 156 158 160 Secto r Title Othe r M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation Transportation Services C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Radio a n d Tv Rad io an d Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g E l e ctric U t i l ities Gas Uti l i t i e s Wat e r an d Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Tra de Retail Tra de Bank ing Cred it Ag e n c i e s a n d F i n ancial B r o k e r s I n s urance Real Esta te H o t e l s and Lodging P l a c e s Pe rso nal and Repair S e r v i c e s Miscellaneous Business Services Adverti si ng Miscellaneous Professional Services Mot i o n Pictu r e s Amu s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Ed ucational Servi c e s Post Office Other Fe deral E n t e r p r i s e s Di r e c t l y All o c a t e d I m p orts Bu s i n e s s Travel, Ente r n a i n m e n t , a n d G i f t s Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d Rest of W o r l d Indus t r y 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 -76. 766 . 761. 1952. -94. 40. 170. 52. 44. 16. -119. 4. 3799. 34. 2. 12. 100 . 588. 0. 5. 44. 25. 297. 494. 0. 61. 44. 95. -11412. -343. -250. 5218. -208. 867. 753. 20 14. 100 . 62. 38. 150 . 0. 10 . -115. 6. 5284. 66. 66 . 0. 166 . 693. 3. 1. 121. 39. 445. 390 . 14. 0. 25. 108. -14140. -432. -408. 8859. -297. 1473. 1238. 3255. 120 . 107 . 55. 239. 0. -60. -230 . 7. 8874. 95. 120 . 0. 381 . 997 . 4. 1. 192. 49. 520. 548. 19. 0. 16. 85. -14624. -468. 278. 10183. -280 . 2030 . 1655. 3717. 476 . 145. 67. 328. 0. -42. -194. 10. 11357. 132. 164. 0. 545. 1317. 5. 1. 273. 83. 721. 605. 26 . 0. 14. 80. -14867 . -496 . 946. 11062. -269. 2417. 1996 . 4132. 897 . 171. 78. 382. 0. -42. -146. 1 1. 13185. 156. 191. 0. 700 . 1516. 6. 1. 334. 100 . 836 . 643. 30 . 0. 12. 73. -16759. -496. 1511. 11840. -249. 2979. 2481. 4827. 1722. 208. 94. 463. 0. -4 1. -130. 13. 15970. 191 . 232. 0. 934. 1826 . 7. 1. 434. 124. 10 12. 728. 36 . 0. 11. 7 1. -19857. -527. 2241. 14277. Table A -1 3. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 19 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3.0 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Sector Titl e D a i r y and Poul t r y Products M e a t a n d Livestock Pr o d u c t s Cotton Fo o d a n d Feed Grains O t h e r Agric u l t u r a l Produ c t s F o r e s t r y and Fishery Pr o d u c t s A g r i c u l t u r a l , Fores t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Iro n and F e r r o a l l o y Mini n g C o p p e r Ore Min i n g O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g Coal M i n i n g C r u d e P e t r o l e u m and Natura l Gas S t o n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g C h e m i c a l and Fert i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g N e w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Bu i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other New Constr u c t i o n Ordnance C o m p l e t e Guid e d M i s s i l e s Meat Products Dai ry Pr o d u c t s C a n n e d and Fro zen Foods G r a i n Mill Produ c t s B a k e r y P r o ducts Su g a r C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s A l c o h o l i c B e v e rages Soft D r i n k s and F l a v orings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Pr o d u c t s Tobacco Manufacturers Fab ric s, Ya rn and Thr e a d M i l l s F l o o r C o v erings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo ds H o s i e r y and Knit Goods Appa r e l Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Loggi ng S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mills Mil l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Othe r W o o d P r o d u c t s Wooden Containers H o u s e h o l d Furniture O t h e r Fur n i t u r e and Fixtures P a p e r Produ c t s Paperboard N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nti ng , P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g I n d u s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricultural Chemicals M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chem ica l Pr o d u c t s P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 15. 49. 495. 2024. 1050 . 89. 16. 141. 0. 1. 568. 15. 50. 62. 4. 0. 292. 0. 448. 274. 288. 490 . 7. 5. 26. 19. 37. 699. 709. 352. 1. 33. 18. 172. 42. 141 . 170. 45. 3. 14. 27. 579. 29. 5. 244. 0. 858. 144. 323. 386. 16. 59. 437. 1869. 1288. 92. 19. 131. 33. 12. 509. 95. 100 . 123. 22. 0. 334. 17. 348. 133. 294. 552. 7. 9. 35. 29. 40. 824. 7 19. 287 . 17. 82. 27 . 166 . 82. 302. 214. 60. 4. 28. 23. 720 . 28. 4. 247. 47. 1230 . 200 . 275. 472. 20. 213. 617. 4618. 2791. 89. 21. 182. 32. 30. 559. 11. 168. 141. 26. 0. 472. 15. 499. 1 14. 443. 563. 6. 19. 54. 52. 74. 1037. 904. 539. 60. 17 1. 35. 250. 141. 527. 318. 118. 2. 60. 35. 1163. 45. 2. 291. 6 1. 2329. 364. 339. 868. 22. 283. 827. 3802. 3046 . 98. 21. 206. 45. 35. 595. 12. 253. 200 . 41. 1. 1119. 310 . 435. 99. 457 . 659. 8. 29. 65. 74. 111. 1381. 996. 740. 91. 225. 48. 380. 233. 698. 393. 195. 3. 94. 45. 1674. 66. 2. 353. 82. 3182. 557. 403. 1132. 34. 359. 947. 3926. 3370. 96. 22. 219. 54. 38 • 691. 12. 302. 229. 49. 1. 1122. 311. 496. 95. 493. 674. 9. 37. 74. 97. 137. 1562. 1063. 888. 121. 289. 54. 483. 316. 842. 452. 241. 5. 1 13. 52. 1964. 78. 2. 381. 89. 3844. 695. 450. 1346. 37. 463. 1135. 4284. 3557. 100. 24. 249. 67. 44. 902. 13. 374. 275. 6 1. 1. 1126. 312. 587. 97. 565. 737. 10. 49. 89. 129. 173. 1856. 1207 . 1102. 163. 368. 65. 636 . 436. 1048. 545. 305. 6. 139. 63. 2399. 97. 2. 437. 100. 4791. 885. 529. 1660 . Table A -13. Continued—Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 10 1 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 1 12 113 114 115 Sec tor Tit l e S y n t h e t i c Fibers Drug s C l e a n i n g and To ilet P r e p a r a t i o n s Pai n t s an d Alli ed P r o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s Tires and Inn er Tub e s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubb er P r o d u c t s Plas t i c P r o ducts Leather T a n n i n g and Indu s t r i a l Leat h e r Footwear and Other Leat h e r P r o d u c t s Gla ss Cement and Co n c r e t e P r o d u c t s S t r uctural Cl ay P r o d u c t s P o t tery and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Clay P r o d u c t s Bla st Fu r n a c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s Iron and Steel Fou n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Alumi n u m a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s Other P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s Met al C o n tainers H e a t i n g A p p a ratus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Metal Scr e w M a c h i n e Produ c t s Met al Sta m p i n g s Cutlery, Hand Tools and G e n eral H a r d w a r e Other F a b r icated P r o d u c t s Engines, Turbines a n d G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n Mini n g a n d O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y Mater i a l Handl i n g Equ i p m e n t Meta l W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Speci al In dustry M a c h i n e s Gener al Indus tri al M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Sh op Produ c t s C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral Equ i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e Equ i p m e n t Serv i c e In dustry M a c h i n e s Elect r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equ i p m e n t El ect rical Industr ial A p p a r a t u s H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s Electric Lig hti ng a n d W i r i n g Radi o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Set s Tel e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Radi o a n d C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u ipment Elec t r o n i c Com p o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec trical P r o d u c t s Mot o r V e h i c l e s Ai rcraft Sh ip a n d Boat Bu i l d i n g a n d Repa i r Ra i l r o a d Equi pment Cycles, Bi c y c l e s a n d P a r t s Other T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ i p m e n t S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Op tic al and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i pment P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq uipment a n d S u p p l i e s Watch es , Clocks and Cloc k O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and Silv e r w a r e Musi c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 144. 276. 104. 42. 826. 91 . 141 . 107. 69. 26. 143. 6. 30.. 2/. 1 15. 652. 68. 412. 158. 180 . 37 . 51. 295. 43. 25. 164. 205. 439. 409. 1408. 136. 607. 830. 528. 0. 284. 76. 255. 197. 241. 150. 111. 78. 42. 326. 188. 110. 1865. 1229. 35. 181. 2. 13. 424. 99. 24. 164. 6. 117. 69. 127. 319. 132. 56. 759. 75. 121. 160. 60. 24. 186 . 13. 35. 28. 145. 553. 1 15. 289. 246 . 308. 20. 58. 288. 73. 275. 167. 367. 489. 499. 1606 . 163. 571. 972. 762. 85. 599. 134. 402. 287. 339. 163. 202. 93. 57. 520. 356. 199. 2352. 2128. 65. 160. 5. 26. 542. 120. 40. 283. 13. 144. 91. 298. 751. 211. 80. 925. 130 . 182. 355. 68. 46. 262. 17. 43. 34. 207. 909. 189. 377. 349. 290. 22. 85. 391. 95. 511. 245. 521. 898. 579. 2400. 316. 717. 1456. 990 . 104. 1866. 157. 687 . 496. 498. 288. 316. 307 . 108. 664. 1546 . 365. 4363. 4181. 171. 198. 10 . 86. 687. 241. 100. 693. 26 . 356 . 243. 430 . 1103. 285. 107. 1087. 290 . 229. 498. 84. 80. 389. 22. 67. 54. 268. 1243. 316 . 352. 431. 347 . 25. 97. 536. 123. 789. 310. 708. 1166 . 831. 3392. 411. 930. 1829. 1306 . 128. 3096 . 214. 995. 687. 651. 547. 427. 433. 196. 948. 2739. 539. 6044. 646 1. 243. 220. 14. 132. 874. 348. 154. 1095. 66. 464. 350. 535. 1437. 335. 123. 1146. 331. 26 1. 629. 94. 92. 500 . 26 . 73. 59. 305. 1412. 383. 381. 496 . 380 . 24. 108. 582. 141. 969. 356. 819. 1337. 952. 4317. 490 . 1107. 2078. 1485. 136. 4193. 266 . 1186. 814. 752. 716. 504. 540 . 276. 1105. 3674. 650 . 7224. 7902. 308. 247. 17. 167. 982. 420. 192. 1497 . 97. 562.' 431. 680. 1948. 409. 149. 1287. 397. 312. 827 . 110. 111. 675. 32. 84. 69. 363. 1684. 479. 435. 597 . 442. 26. 126. 669. 170. 1221. 427. 990. 1606 . 1155. 5798. 604. 1377. 2479. 1773. 153. 5842. 347. 1465. 996 . 902. 970 . 6 17. 687. 399. 1313. 5095. 810. 8928. 9809. 392. 291. 21. 214. 1152. 524. 242. 2146. 136. '70 1. 545. Table A -1 3 . C o ntinu ed-E xpo rts, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 116 1 17 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 143 144 148 150 152 155 158 160 Sect or Tit le Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Tru c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Ai r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P i p e l i n e Tran s p o r t a t i o n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Services C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Except Radio a n d Tv Rad i o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g E l e c t r i c Uti l i t i e s G a s U t i 1 i ti es W a t e r an d Sa n i t a r y Servi c e s W h o l e s a l e Trade Reta i l Tra de Ban k i ng C r e d i t Ag e n c i e s a n d Fin an cial B r o k e r s Insurance Real Esta te H o t e l s an d Lodging Pla ces Pe r s o n a l and Rep a i r Servi c e s Miscellaneous Business Services Adverti si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profe s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s M o t i o n Pictu r e s A m u s e m e n t and R e c r eation S e r v i c e s E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s Post Office O t h e r Federal E n t erprises D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imp orts Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d R e s t of W o r l d Indus t r y 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 67. 802. 761. 1928. 313. 40. 170. 52. 44. 24. 12. 4. 2279. 34. 2. 12. 47. 588. 0. 5. 44. 25. 297. 494. 0. 6 1. 44. 95. 388. 356. 6698. 158. 894. 753. 1927. 789. 62. 38. 150. 0. 29. 53. 6. 2947. 66. 66. 0. 24. 693. 3. 1. 121. 39. 445. 390. 14. 0. 25. 108. 484. 721. 11128. 277. 1505. 1238. 2847. 1302. 107. 55. 239. 0. 34. 54. 7. 4870. 95. 120. 0. 35. 997. 4. 1. 192. 49. 520. 548. 19. 0. 16. 85. 927. 1467. 14625. 393. 2062. 1655. 3119. 1954. 145. 67. 328. 0. 67. 87. 10. 6466. 132. 164. 0. 48. 1317. 5. 1. 273. 83. 721. 605. 26. 0. 14. 80. 1022. 2263. 19870. 475. 2448. 1996. 3426. 2583. 17 1. 78. 382. 0. 77. 103. 1 1. 7648. 156. 191. 0. 56. 1516. 6. 1. 334. 100. 836. 643. 30. 0. 12. 73. 1207. 2883. 24004. 592. 3010. 2481. 3976. 3723. 208. 94. 463. 0. 94. 127 . 13. 9395. 191. 232. 0. 68. 1826. 7. 1. 434. 124. 1012. 728. 36. 0. 11. 71. 1495. 3720. 30419. Table A -14. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Sector Title Da i r y and P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s Meat and Li vestock P r o d u c t s Co tton Food and Feed G r a i n s Other A g r i cultural P r o d u c t s Fores t r y and Fishery P r o d u c t s A g r i c u l t u r a l , F o r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Iron and Ferr o a l l o y M i n i n g Copper Or e Mining Other Nonf e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g Coal M i n i n g Cr u d e P e t r oleum and N a t ural Gas St o n e and Clay M i n i n g a n d Q u a r r y i n g Ch emical and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g Or d n a n c e Me at Pr o d u c t s Dairy Produ c t s Canned and Frozen Foods Gra in Mill P r o ducts Bak e r y Pro duc ts Suga r Confectionary Products Al c o h o l i c Beverages Soft Drinks and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s To bacco M a n u f a c t u r e r s Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d M i l l s Flo or Co verings Miscellaneous Textile Goods H o s i e r y and Knit Goo d s Ap par el Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Loggi ng Sawmills and Planing Mills Mil lwo rk , Plywood and O t h e r Uiood P r o d u c t s Mood e n C o n tainers Other Furn itu re and F i x t u r e s Paper Products Paperboard N e w s p a p e r Print i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g P e r i odical and Boo k Printing, P u b l i s h i n g Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing Indus tri al I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricu l t u r a l Che m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber Syn t h e t i c Fibers Dru gs Cl e a n i n g and Toi let P r e p a r a t i o n s Pain t s and All i e d P r o d u c t s 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 -2. -330. -31. -52. -493. -778. 0. -614. -19. -475. -4. -1629. -153. -97. -30. -950. -77. -304. -41. -13. -1168. -85. -480. -0. -193. -125. -498. -54. -538. -14. -60 1. -39. -55. -781. -441. -7. -52. -1402. -15. -2. -86 . -13. -302. -39. -85. -19. -57. -69. -17. -1. -0. -343. -36. -37 . -683. -885. -7. -7 19. -48. -403. -4. -1484. -164. -85. -123. -1133. -119. -412. -46. -28. -1081. -108. -7 19. -12. -406. -42. -635. -60. -481. -24. -1029. -73. -63. -891. -544. -4. -127. -1703. -3. -5. -110. -33. -579. -69. -137. -48. -97. -136. -28. -1. -2. -336. -4. -38. -788. -957. -6. -569. -18. -842. -1. -3613. -356. -227. -98. -1333. -281. -517. -67. -42. -1012. -154. -904. -20. -363. -30. -828. -118. -409. -126. -2330. -119. -22. -1198. -772. -5. -344. -1860. -6. -12. -142. -76. -1131. -204. -159. -151. -167. -325. -51. -2. -1. -342. -5. -34. -859. -1031. -7. -595. -21. -902. -2. -7148. -416. -267. -92. -1731. -366. -587. -75. -49. -86Z. -165. -988. -24. -396. -26. -869. -148. -335. -146. -3065. -152. -23. -1294. -824. -5. -460. -1948. -7. -19. -163. -124. -1515. -315. -174. -228. -210. -469. -66. -2. -1. -342. -5. -29. -880. -957. -8. -588. -22. -909. -2. -7798. -460 . -296. -91. -1618. -438. -626. -78. -53. -752. -167. -1016. -26. -407. -22. -856. -168. -290. -161. -3488. -178. -23. -1317. -826. -4. -555. -1932. -8. -26. -176. -178. -1856. -436. -178. -309. -245. -612. -78. -2. -1. -364. -6. -28. -956. -994. -8. -618. -25. -968. -2. -9505. -519. -334. -102. -2056. -545. -704. -86. -59. -717. -176. -1093. -31. -435. -20 . -894. -199. -269. -180 . -4229. -220. -24. -1421. -880. -4. -680. -2036. -9. -38. -202. -264. -2366. -621. -194. -425. -298. -827. -95. -2. Table A -1 4. C o ntinu ed-Im p orts, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. oo IS) 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 — 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 1 11 1 12 113 114 115 116 117 120 121 Sector Titl e P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s T i r e s and Inn er Tube s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s P l a s t i c P r o ducts L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and I n d u strial L e a ther F o o t w e a r and Othe r Leat h e r P r o d u c t s Glass C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e P r o d u c t s S t r u c t u r a l Cla y Products P o t t e r y and Rela t e d Pr o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and C l a y P r o d u c t s B l a s t F u r naces and Basic Steel P r o d u c t s Ir on and Steel Fou ndries and F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Copp e r and Coppe r P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Al u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s O t h e r P r i m a r y N o n f errous P r o d u c t s Metal Containers H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Metal S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s Met a l Sta m p i n g s Cut ler y, Han d Tool s and G e n e r a l H a r d w a r e O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pro du cts En gines, Turbi n e s and G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y Construction Mining and Oilfield Machinery M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ipment Met a l W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y S p e cial Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s G e n e r a l In dustrial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop Pr o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and Periph er al E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s an d Other Offi c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e In d u s t r y Ma c h i n e s E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment Ele c t r i c a l In dustrial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c Light i n g a n d W i r i n g Ra d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets Telephone and Telegraph Apparatus Ra d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec tri ca l P r o d u c t s Motor Vehicles Ai rcra ft S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment Cycl es , Bi c y c l e s and Part s O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i pment S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l and De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s O p t ical and O p h t h a l m i c E q u ipment P h o t o g r a p h i c Equ i p m e n t and S u p p l i e s W a t ches, Cloc k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e M u s i c a l Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1963 -1056. -36. -116. -47 . -87. -209. -155. -24. -43. -128. -97. -1112. -23. -443. -239. -775. -12. -7. 0. -62. -5. -124. -128. -39. -241. -35. -15. -91. -184. -65. 0. -72. -55. -3. -28. -51. -88. -79. -223. -25. -59. -6 1. -75. -731. -129. -14. -2. -121. -6 . -37. -13. -58. -100. -119. -309. -217. -143. -35. 24. -406 . 1967 -1309. -114. -181. -100. -119. -453. -223. -29. -39. -214. -161. -2166. -48. -1008. -340 . -1347. -9. -34. -48. -114. -63. -160 . -288. -116. -40 1. -127. -32. -407 . -507 . -304. -3. -184. -93. -18. -152. -110. -180. -120. -591. -47. -198. -178. -140 . -2963. -385. -73. -9. -217. -49. -77. -28. -118. -163. -218. -410. -362. -366. -27. 87. -688. 1973 -2871. -558. -377 . -363. -129. -1037 . -362. -119. -80 . -306 . -206 . -3192. -63. -630 . -282. -1383. -23. -19. -79. -234. -32. -330 . -774. -256. -566 . -288. -99. -381. -799. -763. 0. -301. -626 . -91. -66. -197 . -549. -378. -2432. -132. -449. -1025. -392. -9703. -754. -57. -32. -888. -100 . -288. -86. -300 . -443. -369. -596. -813. -574. -32. 408. -1183. 1980 -2408. -954. -375. -547. -142. -1571. -424. -136 . -91. -362. -233. -4003. -70. -593. -306 . -1484. -25. -24. -92. -322. -38. -404. -1094. -368. -665. -422. -176. -444. -941. -1039. 0. -362. -1005. -184. -77. -272. -814. -562. -3818. -195. -660 . -1566. -604. -12187. -1013. -66. -62. -1195. -138. -443. -130. -426. -645. -476. -693. -1118. -673. -32. 598. -1478. 1985 -3417. -1364. -540 . -741. -145. -2140. -464. -145. -97 . -399. -248. -4637. -74. -536 . -320 . -1503. -26. -27 . -100 . -404. -41. -459. -1403. -480. -737. -56 1. -251. -487. -1045. -1291. 0. -412. -1353. -282. -86 . -344. -1088. -753. -477 1. -260 . -876. -2098. -833. -13752. -1244. -72. -106. -1736. -173. -612. -176. -549. -849. -564. -766 . -1402. -744. -30. 706 . -1686. 1990 -4127 -1887 -764 -1037 -158 -3003 -534 -163 -109 -462 -278 -5622 -82 -519 -354 -16 14 -29 -32 -115 -526 -47 -547 -1866 -648 -834 -764 -366 -547 -1184 -1669 0 -476 -1827 -458 -97 -450 -1503 -1042 -6 164 -358 -1202 -2910 -1184 -17137 -1591 -81 -181 -2129 -225 -869 -247 -732 -1156 -698 -872 -1826 -841 -30 850 -2001 Table A -14. Continued—Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 — Pro j e c t e d No. 126 127 129 133 155 156 158 160 Sect or Title Electric Ut i l i t i e s Gas Uti l i t i e s W h o l e s a l e Trade I n s u rance D i r e c t l y All o c a t e d Impo r t s Bu s i n e s s Travel, E n t e r t a i n m e n t , Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d Rest of W o r l d I n d u s t r y 1963 and Gifts -9. -131 . 1520. 53. -11799. -343. -606 . -1480. 1967 -19. -168. 2336. 142. -14625. -432. -1129. -2269. 1973 1980 -94. -284. 4004. 346 . -15551 . -468. -1189. -4442. -109. -281 . 4891 . 496. -15889. -496 . -1317. -8807. 1985 -120. -249. 5537. 644. -17966. -496. -1372. -12164. 1990 -135. -256. 6575. 866 . -21353. -527. -1479. -16142. Table A -1 5 . Government purchases, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3-to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Sect o r Title D a i r y and P o u l t r y Produ c t s M e a t a n d L i v e stock Produ c t s Cotton F o o d and Feed Grai n s O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l P r o ducts F o r e s t r y a n d Fish e r y Pr o d u c t s Agr i c u l t u r a l , Fo r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Ir on and F e r r o a l l o y Min i n g O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore Mini n g Co al M i n i n g C r u d e P e t r o l e u m a n d Natu ral Gas S t o n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g C h e m i c a l and Fert i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g N e w and R e s idential Bui l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n N e w Nonresi denti al Building C o n s t r u c t i o n N e w Pub l i c U t i l i t y Co n s t r u c t i o n N e w H i g h w a y Construction All Other New C o n struction M a i n t e n a n c e and Rep a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n Ordnance C o m p l e t e G u i d e d Missiles M e a t Pr o d u c t s D a i r y Produ c t s C a n n e d and Froz en Foods G r a i n Mill Produ c t s B a k e r y P r o ducts Sugar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s A l c o h o l i c Beverages S o f t Drinks and Flavorings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts Tobacco Manufacturers Fabri cs , Yarn and Thre ad M i l l s Flo o r Cov e r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s T e x tile Goods H o s i e r y and Kni t Goods A p p arel M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabricated T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mills M i l l work, P l y w o o d and Other blood P r o d u c t s blooden Cont a i n e r s H o u s e h o l d Furniture O t h e r F u r niture and Fix tu res P a p e r Pr o d u c t s Paperboard N e w s p a p e r P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g P e r i o d i c a l and Book Printing, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr i n t i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g Indu s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i 9 als A g r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 18. 5. 488. -537. -81. -737. 39. 7. 386. 85. 0. -54. 37. 1245. 9663. 3625. 10938. 4933. 7 178. 1933. 5557. 300. 278. 104. 28. 54. 6. 7. 2. 31. 98. -1. 69. 5. 8. 0. 162. 96. 0. 12. 6. 47. 304. 210. 32. 3. 588. 274. 1142. 85. 27. 9. -881. -541. 403. -811. 49. -70. 157. 100. 11. -52. 41. 1686. 12920. 4621 . 1 1675. 4510. 7875. 4731 . 5132. 414. 777 . 179. 97. 84. 8. 12. 0. 44. 110. -1. 120. 10. 13. 0. 227. 392. 3. 47. 33. 126. 528. 382. 70. 8. 894. 435. 1013. 192. 80. 13. -61. -3586. 373. -524. 47 . -1. 14. 81. 29. -29. 28. 1393. 1 1226. 4500. 9540 . 3934. 7151. 3288. 2414. 829. 910. 374. 58. 184. 16 . 26. 0. 107. 184. -2. 140. 9. 8. 14. 333. 116. 13. 34. 14. 146. 748. 512. 58. 10. 1189. 670 . 604. 131. 85. 17. 31. -605. 234. -688. 62. 0. 111. 79. 85. -68. 51. 1401. 12036. 5197. 8343. 3972. 9050. 2471. 2664. 955. 427 . 405. 100. 204. 10. 33. 0. 109. 200. -3. 168. 15. 12. 15. 415. 134. 16. 34. 27. 165. 992. 594. 67. 12. 1887. 943. 916. 163. 89. 19. 41. 10. 246. -671. 63. 0. 124. 79. 138. -63. 46. 1360. 10777. 5552. 8337. 4198. 9659. 2645. 2807. 1036. 496. 440. 1 13. 219. 10. 35. 0. 121. 229. -4. 168. 16. 13. 14. 447. 138. 15. 36. 27. 169. 924. 614. 69. 10. 1646. 1013. 1088. 164. 1990 94. 20. 41. 67. 252. -658. 59. 0. 128. 80. 156. -63. 47. 1237. 9776. 5794. 8348. 3968. 9951 . 2779. 3159. 1125. 556. 473. 110. 232. 10. 37. 0. 138. 249. -4. 175. 18. 13. 15. 462. 143. 16. 36. 36. 162. 864. 614. 70. 9. 1450. 1083. 1232. 157. Table A-15. Continued—Government purchases, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 10 1 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 1 12 113 Se ct or Tit l e M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chem ical P r o d u c t s Pl a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s a n d S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r S y n t h e t i c Fibers Drugs Cl e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s Paints and Al lied P r o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m Refining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s Tires and Inner Tubes M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubb er P r o d u c t s Plas t i c Products Le ather Tann i n g and I n d u strial L e a t h e r Footwear an d Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s Gla ss Cement and Concr e t e P r o d u c t s S t r u ctural Cla y P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y and Related P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s Bl ast Fu r n a c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s Iron and Steel F o u n d r i e s and F o r g i n g s P r i mary Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s P r i mary Aluminum and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s Ot her P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s Met al C o n t ainers H e a ting A p p a ratus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s Fabr i c a t e d St ructural Meta l Screw M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s Met al S t a m p i n g s Cutlery, Ha nd Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Oth er Fabricated P r o d u c t s Engines, Turbines and G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y Con s t r u c t i o n Min i n g a n d O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y Mater i a l Handling Eq u i p m e n t Metal W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Spec ia l In dus try M a c h i n e s Gene ra l Indus tri al M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Sho p Produ c t s C o m p u t e r s and P e r ipheral E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Other O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r vice Ind ust ry M a c h i n e s Electric Trans m i s s i o n Eq u i p m e n t Elect ric al Indu st ria l A p p a r a t u s H o u s e h o l d A p p l iances Electric Li ghting a n d W i r i n g Ra dio and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Ra dio and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s E l e ctrical P r o d u c t s Mo t o r V e h icles Ai rcraft Sh ip an d Boat Bu i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Equ ip ment Cycles, Bicyc l e s a n d P a r t s Oth er T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ i p m e n t S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Opti ca l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment a n d S u p p l i e s Wat che s, C l o c k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 168. 21. 17. 376. 137. 37 . 1081. 127. 100. 57. 1. 9. 64. -0. -0 . 10 . 27 . 61. 6. 140 . 25. -232. 9. 5. 81. 25. 21. 43. 32. 267. 45. 342. 100. 156 . 37. 359. 163. 497. 188. 147. 344. 299. 32. 66. 95. 174. 5821. 390. 188. 1709. 10227. 1491. 20 . 7. 2. 586. 146. 36 . 277. 5. 876 . -5. 31. 656 . 262. -46. 1634. 212. 346. 1 15. 10 . 24. 100 . 1. -0. 19. 31 . 282. 87 . 104. 64. -198. 16 . 8. 265. 180 . 39. 137. 248. 557 . 75. 542. 133. 242. 78. 400 . 289. 485. 353. 276 . 491. 540. 50. 158. 152. 251. 6744. 697 . 317. 2353. 10260. 1874. 19. 9. 3. 666. 277. 103. 527. 1 16. 509. -27. 8. 1229. 375. 40. 1732. 215. 173. 98. 15. 46 . 142. 6. -0. 27. 22. 59. 1 1. 106. 134. -20 1. 12. 11. 366 . 90. 38. 145. 193. 214. 74. 248. 126. 208. 69. 388. 303. 733. 450. 336 . 443. 457 . 72. 222. 179. 141. 5233. 468. 27 1. 2112. 6056 . 2240 . 35. 11. 9. 556. 355. 134. 519. 80. 630. 16. 36. 20 17. 487. 147. 1829. 276. 310. 118. 18. 53. 204. 0. -1. 34. 22. 75. 11. 97. 157. 8. 7. 15. 334. 94. 39. 203. 197. 198. 95. 332. 124. 237. 79. 412. 403. 1033. 539. 496. 581. 549. 100. 26 0. 220. 199. 5953. 594. 462. 2744. 7 196. 3209. 34. 12. 11. 709. 471. 222. 613. 49. 744. 15. 44. 2586. 470 . 149. 1784. 293. 331. 125. 17. 54. 224. -0. -1. 33. 22. 81. 11. 115. 180. 9. 7. 14. 370. 114. 17. 213. 206. 238. 92. 428. 131. 253. 85. 461. 359. 1268. 575. 522. 657. 602. 103. 237. 233. 225. 5784. 690 . 584. 2817. 7555. 2818. 34. 13. 1 1. 849. 530. 251. 663. 54. 1990 884 16 55 3153 445 148 1892 290 362 132 26 56 244 -0 _1 4 32 22 87 11 126 206 9 8 15 410 126 3 218 237 256 89 495 146 269 82 508 332 1407 562 548 765 665 105 215 234 248 6232 77 1 625 3018 8338 296 1 38 13 12 967 593 276 7 18 57 Table A -1 5. Continued—Government purchases, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. m 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 12<t 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 Sector Tit le Jewelry and Silverware M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g Go o d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Local Tr ansit a n d I n t ercity B u s e s Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Radio a n d Tv R a d i o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g Electric Utilities Gas Uti l i t i e s W a t e r a n d S a n i t a r y Servi c e s W h o l e s a l e Tra de Retail Tra de Ba nk ing C r e d i t Ag e n c i e s and Financial B r o k e r s Insurance Rea l Esta te H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Pla ces P e r s o n a l an d Rep a i r Se r v i c e s Miscellaneous Business Services Adverti sing M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr o f e s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Repai r M o t i o n P i c tures A m u s e m e n t and R e c r eation S e r v i c e s Do ctors' and Den tis ts ' S e r v i c e s Hospitals O t h e r Medical S e r v i c e s E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s Nonprofit Organizations Post Office O t h e r Federal Enter p r i s e s O t h e r Sta t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imports B u s i n e s s Travel, Enternainment, a n d G i f t s O f f i c e Suppl i e s Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t Industry Re s t of W o r l d I n d ustry 1963 1967 4. 72. 81. 296. 380. 970 . 343. 656. 18. 805. 4. 1193. 326 . 18. 1626. -478. 17 18. 130. 240. 812. 7 15. 79. 3467. 32. 1003. 174. 106. 64. 376. 847. 568. 1683. 706. 403. 2. 43. 2596. 11 . 94. 207. 592. 612. 1975. 842. 1469. 29. 1 177. 10. 1832. 356. 107. 2746. -522. 1696. 150 . 339. 1049. 830. 57. 4171. 34. 1437. 263. 161. -395. 730. 1538. 1236. 2054. 941. 706 . 13. 39. 4029. 0. 485. 484. 100378. -1162. 0. 630. 1224. 122065. -505. 1973 19. 186. 257 . 393. 914. 1513. 518. 1091. 66. 1939. 21. 2847. 869. 1 16. 3275. -1642. 2817. 330 . 623. 1939. 451. 104. 5401. 78. 1558. 365. 132. 25. 1821. 3192. 3170. 1963. 744. 916 . 19. 57. 3131 . 4. 770. 745. 134758. -626. 1980 24. 252. 298. 410 . 1330. 1621. 50 1. 1296. 60. 2932. 26 . 3681. 1220 . 80. 3936. -256 1. 3805. 459. 911. 2620. 291. 186. 7564. 109. 2016. 525. 173. 14. 2751. 4498. 4436 . 1599. 912. 1161. 18. 596. 2261 . 3. 1233. 277 . 154298. -1163. 1985 21. 233. 288. 430 . 1212. 1676 . 516. 1337. 69. 3358. 20. 3299. 1145. 20. 4150. -1975. 4556 . 517. 857. 2944. 622. 194. 8611. 1 18. 2210. 547. 168. -18. 2907. 4988. 4705. 1834. 1038. 1254. 18. 747. 2152. 3. 1281. 509. 162760. -1090. 1990 18. 212. 269. 439. 1096 . 1714. 564. 1384. 73. 37 12. 15. 3093. 1096 . -51. 4448. -1544. 4991 . 544. 810. 3132. 847. 202. 9394. 123. 2335. 560 . 166. -33. 3186. 5725. 5106. 1817. 1106. 1330 . 52. 762. 2121. 3. 1264. 687. 169406. -1105. Table A -16. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990 (Million* of 1972 dollar*) Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 15 16 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 Sector Title Dairy an d Poultry P r o d u c t s Meat and Li ves tock P r o d u c t s Cott on Food and Feed Grain s Other Agricultural P r o d u c t s F o r estry and F i s hery P r o d u c t s Ag ric ultural, Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Iron and F e r r oalloy M i n i n g Other N o n f errous Ore M i n i n g Coal M i n i n g Crude Pet r o l e u m and Natural Gas St o n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g New and R e s idential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n New Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n New H i g hway Co n s t r u c t i o n All Oth er New C o n s t r u c t i o n M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n Ordna n c e Co m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s Meat Produ c t s Dairy P r o d u c t s Can n e d and Frozen Food s Gra in Mill Produ c t s Bak e r y Produ c t s Sug ar C o n f e c t i o n a r y P r o ducts A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s Soft Drin ks and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s Flo or C o v e rings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Textile Go o d s H o s i e r y and Knit Goods Ap par el Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Sawmills and Planing Mills Mill wor k, Plyw o o d and Oth e r Ulood P r o d u c t s W o o d e n Cont a i n e r s H o u s e h o l d Furniture Other F u r n iture a n d F i x t u r e s Paper Pr o d u c t s Paperboard Newspaper Printing and Publishing P e r iodical a n d Book Pri nt ing, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g In dus trial Ino r g a n i c and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricu l t u r a l Che m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Che mi cal P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r S y n t h e t i c Fibers 1963 1967 6. 4. 488. -546. -144. -742. 25. 7. 386. 69. 0. 0. 195. 1734. 290 . 4025. 2237. 1927. 5557. 136. 194. 26. 18. 16. 2. 1. 2. 14. 46. 40. 5. 10. 0. 103. 84. 0. 10. 6. 27. 74. 75. 14. 0. 93. 109. 1104. 14. 158. 21. 17. 8. 5. -881. -552. 318. -817. 14. -70. 157. 72. 1 1. 10 . 41. 1097 . 340 . 3064. 2405. 4722. 5132. 178. 667 . 67. 81. 33. 3. 4. 0. 20. 39. 83. 10 . 15. 0. 168. 370. 3. 43. 33. 88. 143. 163. 42. 2. 42. 227. 962. 109. 836. -5. 31. 1973 51. 11. -6 1. -3602. 246. -536. 12. - 1. 14. 31. 29. 12. 1 18. 1100. 250. 3062. 1994. 3277. 2414. 426. 753. 190 . 32. 102. 8. 14. 0. 67. 72. 36. 7. 10. 14. 165. 75. 13. 27. 14. 81. 116. 125. 15. 2. 48. 242. 543. 24. 487. -27. 8. 1980 1985 1990 55 10. 31 -617. 64. -703. 10. 0. 111. 35. 85. 0. 135. 1771. 190. 30 10. 2866. 2457. 2664. 46 1 198. 178. 74. 106. 5. 17. 0. 58. 66. 42. 12. 15. 15. 167. 77. 16. 26. 27. 75. 10 1 104. 15. 1 52. 296. 844. 20. 608. 15. 36. 53. 10 . 41. -2. 66. -688. 10. 0. 124. 40. 138. 0. 128. 1687. 166. 3177. 3046. 2630. 2807. 454. 207. 175. 85. 103. 4. 16. 0. 63. 68. 40. 13. 16. 14. 179. 80 . 15. 29. 27. 91. 129. 129. 16 . 1. 6 1. 344. 1004. 26. 717. 14. 44. 54. 11. 41. 55. 7 1. -677 . 11. 0. 128. 45. 156. 0. 130. 1560 . 144. 2921. 3359. 2764. 3159. 456. 217. 175. 82. 102. 4. 17. 0. 75. 67. 39. 14. 16. 15. 177. 81. 16. 30 . 36. 92. 141. 139. 18. 1. 65. 389. 1132. 26. 854. 15. 55. Table A -16. Continued—Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Million* of 1972 dollar*) Projected _________________ t No. 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 1 12 113 114 115 116 117 Sector Titl e Dr u g s C l e a n i n g and Toil e t P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s and Alli e d Pr o d u c t s Petroleum Refining and Related Products T i r e s and Inn er Tubes M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Industrial L e a t h e r F o o t w e a r and Other L e a ther P r o d u c t s Glass Cement and Concrete Products Pottery and Related Products M i s c e l l a n e o u s Sto n e and C l a y P r o d u c t s Bl a s t Furna c e s and Basi c Ste el P r o d u c t s Ir on and Steel Foundries and F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Cop p e r P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y A l u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s O t h e r P r i m a r y Nonf e r r o u s P r o d u c t s Metal C o n t a i n e r s Heating Apparatus and Plumbing Fixtures F a b r i c a t e d S t r uctural Met al S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s Met a l Sta m p i n g s Cutle ry , Hand Tool s and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e O t h e r Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s En gines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ip ment Met a l M o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Special Industry M a c h i n e s General Indus tr ial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop Produ c t s C o m p u t e r s and Peripheral Equ i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Other O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e Indus t r y M a c h i n e s E l e c t r i c Tr a n s m i s s i o n Eq u i p m e n t E l e ctrical Indust ri al A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances El e c t r i c Light i n g and M i r i n g Ra d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g S e t s T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Ra d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t E l e c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ct rical P r o d u c t s M o t o r Ve h i c l e s Ai rcra ft S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Equipment Cycle s, Bi c y c l e s a n d Parts O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equipment S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l a n d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Optical and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment a n d S u p p l i e s Matches, Clo c k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y a n d Silv e r w a r e M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products R a i l r o a d Tran s p o r t a t i o n 1963 92. 32. 36 . 840. 56 . 23. 31. 1. 6. 20. 0. 1. 26 . 58. 6. 140. 25. -232. 9. 5. 81. 25. 20 . 25. 38. 263. 15. 157. 100. 134. 29. 348. 74. 457 . 100 . 56. 285. 254. 12. 18. 71 . 173. 5747. 376. 163. 870. 10226. 1485. 8. 1. 2. 519. 75. 23. 170. 3. -3. 5. 38. 239. 1967 141. 77. -50 . 1254. 113. 245. 78. 10. 21. 30. 1. 3. 30 . 279. 87. 104. 64. -198. 16. 8. 265. 180 . 25. 92. 253. 547 . 36 . 393. 132. 204. 62. 383. 143. 413. 202. 117. 434. 488. 16 . 65. 106 . 250. 6620 . 675. 282. 1300 . 10258. 1867. 8. 1. 3. 560. 164. 80. 347. 112. -3. 11. 129. 507. 1973 1980 1985 1990 169. 85. 35. 1108. 75. 32. 39. 15. 41 . 24. 6. 2. 20 . 55. 11. 106. 133. -20 1. 12. 11. 366 . 90. 12. 84. 197 . 207 . 10. 94. 124. 149. 41. 374. 50 . 606 . 223. 64. 306 . 340 . 15. 62. 102. 140. 4992. 442. 213. 739. 6053. 2229. 8. 1. 9. 390 . 147. 96. 231. 73. -3. 10 . 124. 248. 193. 89. 142. 1295. 66 . 1 14. 49. 18. 46. 36. 0. 2. 19. 70. 11. 97. 156. 8. 7. 15. 334. 94. 14. 101 . 205. 184. 7. 78. 122. 170. 45. 391. 80. 851 . 220. 80. 434. 421. 17. 65. 113. 198. 5583. 559. 372. 773. 7 193. 3196. 10. 0. 1 1. 462. 162. 167. 209. 39. 0. 12. 1 18. 209. 224. 100. 144. 1290 . 84. 124. 62. 17 . *5. 47 . 0. 3. 20. 74. 1 1. 115. 180. 9. 7. 14. 370 . 1 14. 16 . 115. 218. 223. 9. 90 . 129. 193. 58. 440 . 87 . 1106 . 291. 88. 506 . 474. 18. 75. 142. 224. 5430. 655. 432. 837. 7552. 2805. 10. 0. 11. 553. 176. 203-. 237. 44. 0. 13. 147. 239. 253. 102. 143. 1433. 80. 137. 72. 26. 46. 56 . 0. 3. 20. 80 . 11. 126. 205. 9. 8. 15. 410. 126 . 17. 128. 250 . 240. 9. 102. 145. 211. 60. 485. 101. 1262. 300 . 96. 590. 528. 17. 79. 157. 247. 5881. 735. 46 1. 899. 8334. 2947. 11. 0. 12. 624. 193. 234. 270. 48. 0. 14. 161. 254. Table A -16. C ontinued-Federal Governm ent purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Million* of 1972 dollar*) Proj ected No. 1 18 119 120 121 122 124 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 156 157 158 159 16 0 Sec-tor Ti-fcle Local Transit and I n t e r c i t y B u s e s Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Ai r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s E x c e p t Rad i o a n d Tv E l e ctric U t i l i t i e s Gas Uti l i t i e s W a t e r and Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Trade Reta il Tra de Bank ing Cred it A g e ncies a n d Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s I n s u rance Real Esta te H o t e l s and Lodging P l a c e s Pe rso nal a n d Repair S e r v i c e s Miscellaneous Business Services Adverti sing Miscellaneous Professional Services A u t o m o b i l e Re pair M o t i o n Pictu r e s * Amu s e m e n t an d R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Doc t o r s ’ and D e n tists’ Services Hospi tals Other Me dical S e r v i c e s Educational Se r v i c e s N o n profit O r g a n i z a t i o n s Post Off i c e Other Federal E n t e r p r i s e s Other State and Local G o v e r n m e n t D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Impo r t s B u s i n e s s Travel, E n t e r n a i n m e n t , a n d Gif t s O f f i c e Su ppl ies Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t Industry Rest of Wo r l d In d u s t r y 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 32. 778. 325. 503. 13. 403. 212. 63. 45. 1030 . -24. 716. - 10 . 43. 333. 6 13. 37. 2530. 3. 705. 34. 81. 76. 94. 189. 62. 1582. 664. 205. 2. 25. 2596 . 0. 251. -320. 4766 1. -1162. 40. 1644. 814. 1224. 2 1. 636. 292. 53. 52. 1794. -26 . 673. 6. 50 . 503. 886 . - 11. 2815. 2. 981. 76. 121. 98. 67. 257. 59. 1870. 889. 431. 13. 11. 4029. 0. 281. -256. 55828. -505. 34. 927 . 467. 669. 52. 854. 273. 79. 78. 1659. 9. 380. - 11. 35. 429. 6 11. -2 2 . 2768. 7. 662. 36 . 69. 51. 76. 260 . 54. 1602. 6 19. 304. 19. 13. 3131. 4. 145. -171. 47508. -626. 30. 823. 418. 7 18. 43. 1121. 313. 94. 120. 1804. -38. 356. - 10. 36. 322. 594. 24. 3142. 8. 690. 41. 86. 65. 100. 273. 51. 1090 . 745. 291. 18. 538. 2261. 3. 206. -796 . 49197. -1163. 37 . 918. 431. 764. 52. 1273. 325. 92. 1 16 . 206 1 . -35. 442. - 12. 46. 424. 648. 28. 3789. 8. 824. 48. 9 1. 34. 105. 331. 64. 1346. 867. 329. 18. 692. 2152. 3. 255. -432. 50239. -1090. 40 . 98 1 . 477. 818. 56 . 1462. 365. 98. 118. 2325. -35. 411. - 11. 48. 436 . 686 . 30 . 4175. 9 882. 5 1. 97. 30. 122. 37 1 . 66 . 1341. 932. 362. 52. 711. 2121. 3 260. -218. 51280. -1105. Table A -1 7 . Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Million* of 1972 dollar*) Projected No. 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 15 16 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 Sector Titl e D a i r y a n d P o u l t r y Pro du cts M e a t and Li ves tock Produ c t s Fo o d and Feed Gra i n s O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l P r o d u c t s F o r e s t r y and Fishery Produ c t s A g r i c u l t u r a l , Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Iro n and Fer r o a l l o y Mining O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore Min i n g Coa l M i n i n g C r u d e P e t r o l e u m and Nat ural Gas S t o n e and Cla y M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g N e w a n d Resid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n N e w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l B u i lding C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other Ne w C o n s truction M a i n t e n a n c e and Repair C o n s t r u c t i o n Ordnance C o m p l e t e Gui d e d Mi s s i l e s M e a t Pr o d u c t s Dai ry Pr o d u c t s C a n n e d a n d Froz en Foods G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s B a k e r y Pr o d u c t s Sugar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s S o f t Drin k s and Flavorings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts Fabri cs * Ya rn and Threa d M i l l s Floor Coverings «’ M i s c e l l a n e o u s T e x t i l e Goods H o s i e r y and Knit Goods Appa r e l M i s c e l l a n e o u s F a b r icated T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mil l s M i l lwork, P l y w o o d and Other W o o d P r o d u c t s Wooden Containers H o u s e h o l d F u r niture O t h e r Fur n i t u r e and F i x tures P a p e r Produ c t s Paperboard Newspaper Printing and Publishing P e r i o d i c a l and Book Prin ti ng, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g Indu s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricultural Chemicals M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical Pr o d u c t s Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs Drugs C l e a n i n g a n d Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s 1963 2. 1. 0. 4. 1. 25. 17 . 372. 55. 0. 9. 195. 551. 1765. 156 1. 1888. 3963. 96. 87 . 14. 6. 10. 1. 0. 2. 10. 6. 39. 3. 6. 0. 57. 73. 0. 6. 6. 12. 22. 27. 11. 0. 47. 206. 961. 1. 117. 21. 17. 16. 24. 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 4. 1. 1. 7. 9. 12. -70. 89. 60. 11. 8. 41. 455. 928. 1331. 4665. 3007 . 115. 28. 41. 7. 22. 2. 3. 0. 14. 18. 82. 7. 7. 0. 110. 350. 2. 27. 26. 29. 48. 67. 33. 1. 27 . 163. 622. 90. 748. -6 . 31. 87. 37. 47. 9. 6. 32. 5. 10. 0. -2 . 22. 29. 14. 118. 451. 1033. 1007 . 2966. 956 . 368. 1 18. 166. 24. 92. 7. 12. 0. 6 1• 57. 34. 4. 3. 14. 105. 54. 12. 14. 9. 21. 24. 26. 6. 1. 34. 170. 87. 1. 395. -28. 8. 70. 40. 53. 7. 7. 30. 7. 7. 0. 37 . -26. 0. 0. 135. 827. 2087. 1194. 2237. 1367. 413. 135. 157. 22. 98. 3. 15. 0. 52. 52. 41. 7. 7• 15. 112. 60. 15. 15. 22. 22. 22. 22. 7. 0. 37. 224. 475. 0. 540. 15. 36. 90. 46. 51. 7. 7. 29. 6. 7. 0. 35. 30. 0. 0. 128. 782. 2342. 1184. 2337. 1445. 396 . 136. 152. 20 . 93. 3. 14. JO. 57. 50. 38. 7. 7. 14. 107. 58. 14. 14. 21. 21. 21. 21. 7. 0. 43. 247. 540. 0. 626 . 14. 44. 10 1 . 41. 51. 8. 6. 30. 6. 8. 0. 34. 34. 0. 0. 130. 797 . 2103. 1325. 247 1. 1795. 398. 137 . 150. 19. 91. 3. 15. 0. 68. 49. 38 • 8. 6. 15. 105. 58. 15. 15. 3 1. 22. 31. 31. 8. 0. 46. 289. 6 30. 0. 759. 15. 55. 124. 39. Table A -17. C ontinued-Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Sector Title Pai n t s and Allied P r o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m R e f ining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s Tires an d Inner Tub e s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub b e r P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c Pr odu cts Leather Tanning a n d I n d u s t r i a l L e a t h e r Footwear and Other L e a ther P r o d u c t s Gla ss Cement and Concr e t e P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s Bla st Fu r n a c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s Iron and Steel F o u n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Aluminum a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s Other P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s Meta l C o n t ainers H e a t i n g A p p aratus and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Meta l Sc r e w M a c h i n e P r o ducts Meta l S t a m pings Cu tlery, Ha nd Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Other Fabricated P r o d u c t s Engines, Tu rbines and G e n e r a t o r s Farm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n Mini n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y Mater i a l Handling E q u i pment Meta l W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Sp eci al In dustry M a c h i n e s Ge ner al Indu st rial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Sh op Products C o m p u t e r s and Per i p h e r a l Equ i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e Equ i p m e n t S e r v i c e In dus try M a c h i n e s Elect r i c Tra n s m i s s i o n E q u i p m e n t El ect rical Indust ri al A p p a r a t u s H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s Elect r i c Lig hti ng and W i r i n g Rad io and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t E l e c t r o n i c C o m ponents M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec trical P r o d u c t s Mo t o r Vehic l e s Ai rcraft Sh i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Equi pme nt Cycles, Bicyc l e s and Parts Other T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t S c i e n t i f i c an d C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical and De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s Op tic al and O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u ipment and S u p p l i e s Watch es , Cloc k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e Musical Instr u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g G o o d s Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Local Transit and I n t e r c i t y Bus e s Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1963 2. 757. 52. 15. 26. 1. 5. 11. 0. 1. 35. 55. 5. 108. 23. -29. 9. 5. 65. 18. 15. 10. 30. 216. 13. 144. 87. 94. 13. 305. 72. 335. 18. 51. 237. 224. 9. 17. 36. 156. 5184. 331. 133. 779. 9033. 1350 . 6. 1. 1. 394. 38. 12. 101. 1. 3. 5. 36. 186. 18. 641. 1967 3. 1022. 79. 228. 63. 6. 16. 13. 0. 1. 26. 277 . 85. 25. 47. -24. 16. 7. 207 . 120 . 18. 55. 219. 449. 29. 366 . 99. 135. 39. 298. 129. 222. 2 1. 105. 343. 409. 12. 42. 58. 220. 5799. 556. 240. 1010. 9217. 160 1 . 4. 1. 1. 46 1. 112. 47. 293. 111. 2. 7. 56. 394. 32. 1330. 1973 1980 4. 1037. 34. 13. 27. 12. 36. 7. 5. 1. 16. 53. 8. 44. 112. -46. 12. 1 1. 292. 35. 6. 47. 180. 97. 3. 68. 93. 65. 19. 265. 38. 290. 19. 52. 267 . 256. 10. 35. 38. 110. 4354. 325. 139. 430 . 5363. 1863. 5. 1. 7. 287. 67. 72. 165. 72. 1. 6. 43. 132. 26 . 645. 3. 1232. 30. 98. 35. 15. 41. 18. 0. 0. 15. 67. 7. 46 . 136 . 1. 7. 15. 277. 45. 7. 67 . 187 . 83. 0. 53. 98. 83. 22. 307 . 68. 552. 30 . 67 . 389. 334. 13. 42. 45. 157. 4946 . 465. 159. 487. 6413. 2877. 7. 0. 7. 358. 79. 121. 143. 38. 0. 7. 45. 106. 22. 563. 1985 4. 1221. 35. 100. 44. 14. 39. 23. 0. 0. 14. 7 1. 7. 50. 153. 1. 7. 14. 297. 49. 7. 7 1. 192. 86 . 0. 58. 1 00. 85. 28. 33 1. 7 1. 7 18. 35. 7 1. 452. 372. 12. 45. 50. 170. 4643. 534. 174. 524. 6634. 2380 . 7. 0. 7. 423. 83. 144. 151 . 43. 0. 7. 49. 103. 28. 57 1. 1990 4. 1357. 31. 116. 54. 23. 40. 32. 0. 0. 15. 76. 8. 62. 178. 1. 8. 15. 335. 6 1. 8. 84." 222. 100 . 0. 70. 115. 99. 3 1. 373. 85. 865. 38. 76. 532. 427 . 11. 49. 6 1. 191. 5090 . 609 . 195. 609 . 7430 . 2522. 8. 0. 8. 489. 9 1. 17 1. 178. 46 . o 8. 6 1. 1 12. 3 1. 632. Table A -1 7 . Continued—Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions o f 1972 dollars) Projected No. 120 121 122 124 126 127 128 129 130 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 157 158 159 Sector Title Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Rad io a n d Tv Electric Utilities Gas Utilities W a t e r and S a n i t a r y Se r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Trad e Reta i1 T rade Insurance Rea l Esta te H o t e l s and L o d g i n g Places P e r s o n a l a n d Repa i r S e r vices Miscellaneous Business Services Ad verti sing M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Repair Motion Pictures Amusement and Recreation Services Doctors' and Dent is ts' Se r v i c e s Hospi ta ls O t h e r Medi c a l S e r v i c e s E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s Nonprofit Organizations Post Off i c e O t h e r Fe der al Enter p r i s e s O t h e r Sta t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Import s O f f i c e Su p p l i e s Scrap* Used* a n d S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t I n d ustry 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 321. 389. 11. 347. 399. 44. 33. 793. -31. 23. 101. 418. 15. 2034. 2. 379. 25. 73. 92. 15. 68. 40. 694. 505. 149. 2. 17. 2198. 120. -441. 38111. 819. 1018. 17. 440. 284. 38. 38. 1321. -34. 21. 151. 633. 12. 1820. 1. 506. 73. 112. 129. 52. 10 1 . 5. 718. 552. 312. 9. 8. 3417. 1 16. -97. 45888. 456. 47 1. 47. 636. 303. 56. 67. 1189. 2. 20. 12. 402. 1. 1830. 6. 284. 27. 59. 76. 64. 124. 6. 104. 293. 202. 15. 7. 2580. 55. -54. 33948. 408. 532. 38. 884. 351. 72. 109. 1363. -47. 22. 15. 404. 22. 2163. 7. 322. 30. 75. 105. 82. 157. 7. 142. 400. 202. 15. 7. 1701. 67. -67. 32013. 419. 541. 46. 961. 380. 70. 104. 1474. -45. 28. 14. 396. 28. 2492. 7. 340. 35. 78. 90. 85. 184. 7. 162. 417. 212. 14. 7. 1590. 71. -70. 31449. 465. 606 . 51. 1141. 440 . 74. 105. 1739. -46. 31. 23. 433. 31. 2860. 8. 389. 38. 84. 88. 99. 228. 8. 203. 470. 243. 23. 8. 1569. 76. -76. 30999. Table A -18. Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 16 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 57 58 59 60 61 Sector Tit l e Dai r y a n d Poul t r y P r o d u c t s Mea t an d Livestock P r o d u c t s Cott on Fo od and Feed Gra i n s Othe r Agric u l t u r a l P r o d u c t s Fores t r y and Fishery P r o d u c t s Agricultural* F o r e s t r y a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Iron and F e r r o a l l o y M i n i n g Othe r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g Coal M i n i n g Cr u d e P e t r o l e u m a n d N a t ural Gas St o n e and C l a y M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g Ne w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n Ne w H i g h w a y C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other Ne w C o n s t r u c t i o n M a i n t e n a n c e an d R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n Ordnance C o m p l e t e Gui d e d M i s s i l e s Meat Pr o d u c t s Da i r y P r o d u c t s C a n n e d and Froz en Fo o d s Grai n Mill P r o d u c t s Bak e r y Pr o d u c t s Sugar Confectionary Products Soft Dri n k s and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s Flo or C o v e r i n g s Miscellaneous Textile Goods Ap par el Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Sawmills and Planing Mills Mi llw ork, P l y wood a n d O t h e r U o o d P r o d u c t s Wood e n C o n t a i n e r s H o u s e h o l d Fu r n i t u r e Other F u r n i t u r e a n d F i x t u r e s Paper P r o d u c t s Paperboard N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g Per i o d i c a l and Book P r i n ting, P u b l i s h i n g Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing In dus trial Ino r g a n i c a n d O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Ag r i c u l t u r a l C h e m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s C h e mical P r o d u c t s Drugs C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s and Allied P r o d u c t s Petroleum Refining and Related Products Tires and Inn er T u b e s 1963 1967 4. 4. 488. -546. -148. -744. 0. - 10. 14. 13. 0. -9. 1183. 290. 2260. 676. 39. 1594. 40. 107. 11. 12. 6. 1. 0. 4. 40. 0. 1. 4. 47 . 11. 0. 4. 0. 16. 51. 48. 3. 0. 46. -97. 143. 13. 41. 75. 9. 34. 84. 4. 4. 4. -881 . -554. 311. -827. 2. -1 . 67. 12. 0. 1. 642. 340. 2136. 1074. 57. 2126. 63. 639. 26. 74. 11. 1. 2. 6. 20. 1. 3. 7. 58. 20. 1. 16. 6. 59. 96. 96. 9. 1. 14. 64. 340. 19. 88. 54. 41. -53. 233. 34. 1973 3. 3. -6 1. -3608. 214. -541. . 2. - 1. 15. 9. 0. -2 . 649. 250. 2029. 987. 311. 1458. 58. 635. 24. 9. 10. 1. 2. 6. 14. 1. 3. 7. 6 1. 21. 1. 13. 5. 6 1. 92. 99. 9. 1. 14. 72. 456. 23. 92. 99. 46. 31. 71. 41. 1980 2. 2. 31. -624. 34. -711. 3. 0. 74. 9. 85. 0. 944. 190. 923. 1671. 220. 1297. 49. 64. 20. 52. 8. 1. 2. 6. 14. 1. 5. 7. 55. 17. 1. 11. 4. 53. 79. 82. 7. 1. 14. 72. 369. 20. 68. 103. 43. 138. 62. 37. 1985 1990 3. 3. 41 . -8 . 37. -695. 3. 0. 89. 10. 138. 0. 905. 166 . 835. 1863. 293. 1362. 58. 7 1. 23. 65. 10. 1. 1. 6. 18. i. 5. 10. 72. 22. 1. 15. 6. 70. 108. 108. 9. 1. 18. 97. 463. 26. 9 1. 123. 60. 140. 69. 49. 3 3 4 1! 49. 4 1. -683. 3. 0. 94. 11. 156 . 0. 763. 144. 8 18. 2034. 293. 1365. 58. 80. 24. 62. 11. 1. 2 7. 19. 1 6! 10 72. ?3, 1 15 * 6 70. 111. 108. 10. 1. 19. 100. 502. 26. 95. 129. 63. 139 75. 49. Table A -1 8. Continued—Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Million* of 1972 dollars) _______________ Pro j ected No. 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 124 126 Se ctor Title M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubb e r P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c Produ c t s L e a t h e r Tann i n g and Ind us trial L e a t h e r F o o t w e a r an d Oth er Lea ther P r o d u c t s Glass C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e P r o ducts P o t t e r y and R e l a t e d P r o ducts M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Cla y P r o d u c t s B l a s t Fu r n a c e s and Basic Steel P r o d u c t s Iron a n d Steel F o u ndries and F o r g i n g s P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Coppe r P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Al u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s Other Primary Nonferrous Products H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s F a b r i c a t e d Structural Metal S c r e w M a c h i n e Produ c t s Metal Stampings Cutlery, Ha nd Tools and Gen er al H a r d w a r e O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pr o d u c t s En gin es, T u r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s Farm Machinery C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y M a t e r i a l Ha n d l i n g Equip me nt Metal Working Machinery S p e c i a l I n d ustry Ma c h i n e s G e n e r a l In dus trial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Sh op P r o ducts C o m p u t e r s and Peripheral Equipment T y p e w r i t e r s and Other Office E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e I n d ustry M a c h i n e s E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment E l e c t r i c a l In dus trial A p p a r a t u s H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s E l e c t r i c L i g hting and Wiri n g R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equipment Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s M o t o r Vehicles Ai rcr a f t S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ip ment S c i e n t i f i c and Cont r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l a n d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s O p t i c a l and O p h t h a l m i c Equipment P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq uipment and S u p p l i e s Wa t c h e s , Clo c k s and Clo ck O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s Jewelry and Silverware M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Loc al Transit and Int e r c i t y Bu s e s Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Rad io and Tv E l e c t r i c Uti l i t i e s 1963 8. 5. 0. 1. 10. 0. 0. -9. 3. 0. 33. 1. -203. 0. 16. 7. 5. 15. 7. 47. 2. 13. 13. 40 . 16. 43. 2. 121. 83. 5. 48. 30. 3. 1. 35. 17. 563. 44. 30. 91. 1193. 135. 2. 1. 125. 38. 12. 68. 1. -6 . 0. 2. 53. 14. 138. 3. 113. 1. 56. -187 . 1967 17. 15. 4. 4. 17. 1. 2. 4. 2. 2. 79. 18. -174. 1. 58. 60 . 7. 37 . 33. 98. 7. 27. 32. 69. 23. 85. 14. 191. 181. 1 1. 91 . 80. 5. 24. 48. 30. 821. 119. • 42. 289. 1041 . 266. 4. 2. 99. 52. 33. 54. 1. -5. 4. 74. 1 13. 9. 314. -5. 207. 4. 196. 8. 1973 19. 13. 3. 4. 17 . 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 62. 21. -155. 0. 74. 55. 7. 38. 17. 111. 7. 26. 31. 84. 22. 109. 12. 316. 203. 12. 39. 83. 5. 27. 64. 30. 639. 118. 74. 309. 690 . 366. 4. 2. * 103. 80. 24. 66. 1. -4. 4. 82. 116. 8. 282. 10. 198. 5. 219. -31. 1980 1985 16. 14. 2. 4. 18. 0. 2. 4. 3. 3. 51. 20 . 7. 0. 57. 49. 7. 33. 18. 101. 7. 24. 24. 87 . 23. 85. 12. 299. 190. 13. 45. 87. 5. 23. 68. 41. 637. 94. 212. 286 . 779. 319. 2. 3. 104. 82. 46. 66. 1. 0. 4. 73. 102. 7. 259. 9. 186. 4. 237. -38. 24. 18. 3. 6. 24. 0. 3. 5. 4. 3. 65. 26. 8. 0. 73. 65. 9. 44. 26. 137. 9. 32. 29. 108. 30 . 109. 16. 389. 256 . 17. 54. 102. 6. 30. 92. 54. 787. 121. 258. 313. 918. 425. 3. 4. 130. 92. 59. 87. 1. 0. 6. 98. 136. 9. 347. 12. 223. 6. 312. -55. 1990 21. 18. 3. 6. 24. 0. 3. 5. 4. 3. 65. 27. 8. 0. 74. 65. 9. 44. 29. 140. 9. 32. 30. 112. 30. 112. 16. 397. 262. 20 . 58. 1 00. 6. 30. 96. 56. 791. 126. 266. 291. 904. 425. 3. 4. 135. 102. 63. 91. 2. 0. 6. 101. 142. 9. 349. 12. 212. 6. 321. -75. Table A -18. C ontinued-Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 Projected No. 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 Sector Tit l e Gas U t i l i t i e s W a t e r and Sanitary S e r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Trade Reta il Tra de Bank i ng Cred it A g e n c i e s and Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s Insurance Real Esta te H o t e l s and Lodging P l a c e s Personal and Repa ir S e r v i c e s Miscellaneous Business Services Adverti si ng Miscellaneous Professional Services A u t o m o b i l e Repair Mot i o n Pi c t u r e s Amu s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Do ctors' and De ntists' S e r v i c e s Hospitals Oth er Medical S e r v i c e s Educational Services Non p r o f i t O r g a n i z a t i o n s Post Office Oth er Fe deral E n t e r p r i s e s Oth er State and Local G o v e r n m e n t Di r e c t l y A l l ocated I m p o r t s B u s i n e s s Travel, E n t e r n a i n m e n t , a n d Gi f t s Offi c e Suppl i e s Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t In dustry Rest of W o r l d Indus t r y 1963 20. 13. 237. 7. 716. - 10. 20. 232. 195. 22. 496 . 1. 326 . 10. 8. -16. 79. 122. 22. 888. 159. 56. 0 . 8. 398. 0 . 131. 121. 9550. -1162. 1967 15. 13. 473. 7. 673. 6. 29. 352. 253. -2 2 . 995. 1. 475. 3. 9. -31 . 14. 156. 54. 1 152. 337. 119. 4. 3. 6 12. 0. 166. -159. 9940. -505. 1973 1930 1985 1990 24. 11. 47 1. 7. 380 . - 11. 15. 417. 209. -23. 938. 1. 379. 9. 10 . -25. 12. 136. 48. 1499 . 327. 102. 4. 5. 551 . 4. 90. -117. 13560 . -626 . 22. 11. 441. 9. 356. -10 . 14. 306 . 191. 1. 980. 1. 368. 11. 1 1. -39. 18. 1 16. 44. 948. 345. 89. 3. 530. 560 . 3. 139. -729. 17185. -1163. 23. 12. 587. 11. 442. - 12. 18. 410. 253. - 1. 1296. 1. 484. 13. 14. -56. 21. 148. 57. 1184. 450. 1 17. 3. 685. 562. 3. 185. -36 1. 18789. -1090. 24. 13. 587. 11. 411. - 11. 18. 413. 253. -0. 1314. 1. 493. 13. 14. -58. 23. 143. 58. 1138. 462. 1 18. 30 . 703. 552. 3. 184. -142. 20281. -1105. Table A -1 9 . State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (M illion* of 1972 dollar*) Projected No. 1 2 4 5 6 7 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 40 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 Sect o r Titl e D a i r y a n d P o u l t r y Products M e a t and Livestock Products F o o d and Fee d Gra i n s O t h e r Ag r i c u l t u r a l Produ c t s F o r e s t r y and F i s hery P r o ducts A g r i c u l t u r a l , Fo r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Co al M i n i n g S t o n e and C l a y M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g C h e m i c a l and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g N e w and Resid e n t i a l Bui l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n N e w Nonresi dent ial Build i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n N e w Publ i c U t i l i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n New H i g h w a y Constr u c t i o n All Other New Construction M a i n t e n a n c e and Repa i r C o n s t r u c t i o n Ordnance M e a t Produ c t s Dairy Products C a n n e d and Fro zen Food s G r a i n Mi ll Produ c t s B a k e r y Pr o d u c t s Sugar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s S o f t D r i n k s a n d Fla vo rings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Produ c t s Tobacco Manufacturers Fa bri cs, Yarn and Thread M i l l s Floor Coverings M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo ds Appa r e l M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabr i c a t e d T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s M i l l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Oth er blood P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d F u r n iture O t h e r Fur n i t u r e and Fixtures P a p e r Pr o d u c t s Paperboard Newspaper Printing and Publishing P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nti ng , P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g I n d u s t r i a l Ino r g a n i c and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agricultural Chemicals M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical Pr o d u c t s Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber Drugs C l e a n i n g a n d Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s P a i n t s a n d Alli e d Products P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s T i r e s and Inn er Tubes M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub b e r Pr o d u c t s P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s 1963 1967 1973 1980 13. 1. 8. 63. 5. 14. 17 . -54. 36. 1050. 7929. 3625. 10648. 908. 4942. 7. 163. 84. 78. 10 . 37. 4. 6. 17. 52. - 1. 29. 1. -1 . 59. 12. 3. 20. 231. 135. 18. 3. 495. 165. 37. 7 1. 10. 0. 284. 105. 1. 241. 71. 77. 27. 19. 4. 12. 85. 7. 35. 28. -62. 41. 1645. 1 1823. 4621. 11335. 1446. 5470. 10. 236. 1 10. 1 12. 16. 50. 5. 8. 24. 7 1. - 1. 37. 1. - 1. 59. 23. 5. 38. 384. 219. 28. 6. 853. 208. 50. 83. 40. 1. 516. 184. 3. 380. 99. 101. 37. 30. 2. 16. 127. 12. 35. 50 . -41. 28. 1275. 10126. 4500. 9290. 872. 5157. 12. 403. 157. 184. 26. 82. 8. 12. 40. 1 13. -2 . 105. 2. -2 . 167. 41. 7. 64. 632. 387. 44. 8. 1141. 429. 61. 107. 21. 1. 1061. 290. 5. 624. 140. 141. 59. 30. 7. 12. 169. 16. 52. 44. -6 8 . 51. 1265. 10265. 5197. 8153. 961. 6 184. 14. 494. 229. 227. 26. 98. 5. 16. 51. 134. -3. 126. 3. -2 . 248. 57. 8. 90. 890. 489. 52. 11. 1835. 647. 71. 143. 22. 1. 1824. 398. 6. 535. 209. 196. 69. 1985 1990 36. 9. 12. 180. 17. 53. 39. -63. 46. 1231. 9090. 5552. 817 1. 1020 . 6613. 15. 581. 290. 265. 28. 116. 6. 19. 58. 16 1 . -4. 129. 3. -3. 268. 59. 7. 78. 795. 485. 53. 9. 1585. 669. 84. 138. 26. 1. 2362. 370 . 5. 494. 209. 206. 64. 41. 9. 12. 181. 19. 49. 35. -63. 47. 1107. 8216. 5794. 8204. 1047. 6592. 15. 669. 338. 298. 29. 130. 6. 21. 62. 182. -4. 135. 4. -3. 284. 62. 6. 70. 723. 475. 52. 8. 1386. 694. 1 00. 130. 30. 1. 2899. 343. 5. 459. 210. 224. 59. Table A -19. Continued—State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Million* o f 1972 dollar*) Projected No. 65 66 68 69 70 71 74 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 10 1 102 103 104 105 106 107 109 110 111 1 12 113 1 14 1 15 116 117 1 18 119 120 121 122 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 135 Sec-tor Title Footw e a r a n d Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s Glas s S t r u ctural Clay P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s Blas t Fu r n a c e s and B a s i c Steel P r o d u c t s Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Products Meta l St a m p i n g s Cu tlery, Hand Tool s and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Ot h e r Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s Engines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s Fa rm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n Min i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y Ma t e r i a l Handl i n g E q u i pment Metal W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Sp ecial Industry M a c h i n e s Ge neral Indus tri al M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Shop Products C o m p u t e r s and P e r ipheral E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s an d O t h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t Serv i c e Industry M a c h i n e s El e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u i p m e n t Electrical In dustrial A p p a r a t u s H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s E l e ctric Lig hti ng and W i r i n g Rad io an d Tv Rec e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s Radi o an d C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t E l e c t r o n i c Com p o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s Motor Vehicles A i rcraft Ship and Boat Bu i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Equi pment Cycles, Bi c y c l e s and Par t s S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s Op tical and Opht h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq ui pment a n d S u p p l i e s Wat che s, Clo c k s and Cloc k O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and Silv e r w a r e Musi c a l Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s Oth er M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s Railroad Transportation Local Trans it and I n t e r c i t y Bu s e s Truc k Tran s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Radio a n d Tv Radi o an d Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g E l e ctric U t i l ities Ga s Uti l i t i e s W a t e r an d Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Tra de R e t a i 1 Tra de Bank ing Cr edit A g e n c i e s and Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s I n s u rance Real Esta te 1963 1967 3. 43. -0 . 10. 1. 3. 0. 1. 19. -5. 4. 30. 186. 0. 22. 8. 11. 89. 40. 88. 92. 59. 45. 20. 48. 24. 0. 74. 14. 25. 839. 2. 6. 12. 6. 67. 71. 13. 108. 3. 7. 67. 43. 57. 348. 191. 18. 153. 5. 403. 4. 981. 263. -28. 597. -454. 1001 . 140 . 196. 478. 4. 70. -0 . 16. 1. 3. 0. 14. 45. -4. 10. 39. 150 . 1. 38. 16 . 17. 147. 72. 151 . 159. 57. 52. 33. 93. 45. 0. 124. 22. 36 . 1054. 2. 7. 11. 9. 107. 113. 23. 180. 4. 13. 83. 78. 85. 571. 331. 28. 245. 8. 541 . 10. 1540. 303. 56. 952. -496 . 1022. 144. 289. 545. 1973 1980 1985 1990 5. 118. -0 . 25. 2. 4. 1. 26. 6 1. -5. 7. 64. 154. 2. 60. 28. 14. 253. 127. 228. 273. 137. 1 17. 57. 160. 77. 1. 240. 26. 58. 1373. 3. 10. 27. 10. 166 . 208. 38. 288. 7. 22. 176. 132. 145. 879. 587. 52. 422. 14. 1084. 21. 2575. 790 . 38. 1616. -1651. 2437. 342. 588. 1510. 7. 168. - 1. 32. 3. 5. 1. 24. 102. -7. 14. 89. 254. 2. 67. 34. 20. 324. 182. 319. 415. 147. 129. 83. 195. 108. 1. 37 1. 35. 90. 197 1. 4. 13. 24. 12. 247. 309. 55. 404. 10. 24. 240. 180. 202. 1300 . 799. 84. 579. 18. 18 1 1 . 26. 3368. 1126. -40. 2132. -2523. 3449. 469. 875. 2299. 9. 177. - 1. 30. 2. 6. 0. 1. 98. - 12. 15. 84. 338. 2. 60. 27. 21. 272. 162. 284. 434. 151. 128. 85. 162. 9 1. 1. 354. 35. 152. 1980 . 4. 14. 23. 13. 296. 354. 48. 426. 9. 21. 220. 141. 191. 1175. 759. 84. 573. 17. 2084. 20. 2974. 1053. -96. 2089. -1940. 41 14. 529. 811. 2520. 10. 188. -1. 29. 2. 7. 0. -14. 89. -14. 16. 80. 393. 1. 57. 22. 23. 231. 145. 262. 452. 174. 138. 88. 136 . 77. 1. 351. 36. 164. 2119. 4. 14. 27. 13. 342. 400 . 42. 449. 9. 18. 199. 107. 185. 1056 . 733. 87. 566 . 17. 2250 . 15. 2728. 998. -169. 2123. -1509. 4581. 555. 762. 2696. Table A -1 9. Continued—State and local government purchases, to ta l, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. Sector Titl e 1963 1967 1973 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 154 157 158 159 H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Place s P e r s o n a l and Rep a i r Servi c e s M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s i n e s s Se r v i c e s Ad ver ti si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profe s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Re pair M o t i o n Pictu r e s A m u s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Doctors' and Dentis ts ' S e r vices Hospi tal s O t h e r M e d ical S e r v i c e s E d u c a t i o n a l S e r vices Nonprofit Organizations P o s t Off i c e O t h e r Sta t e and Local Gove r n m e n t Office Supplies Sc rap* Used, and S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t Industry 103. 42. 937 . 30. 299. 140 . 25. - 12. 283. 657. 506. 100. 42. 198. 19. 233. 804. 52717. -56. 68. 1357. 32. 456. 187. 40. -492. 663. 1280. 1 177. 183. 53. 275. 28. 349. 1480. 66237. -160. 126. 2633. 7 1. 896. 329. 64. -26. 1744. 2932. 3115. 361. 125. 6 12. 45. 625. 916 . 87250. 1980 -304. 163. 4422. 101 . 1326. 484. 87. -51. 2651. 4225. 4385. 508. 167. 870. 58. 1027 . 1073. 105101. 1985 -26. 167. 4822. 110. 1386. 499. 77 . -52. 280 1 . 4656 . 4642. 488. 171. 925. 55. 1025. 941. 112522. 1990 162. 172. 5220. 1 14. 1453. 509. 69. -62. 3064. 5354. 5040. 476. 174. 968. 51. 1004. 904. 118126. Table A -20. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 4 5 6 7 11 15 16 21 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 35 39 40 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 53 54 55 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 66 69 70 74 80 81 82 84 86 87 88 Secto r Title Dairy and Poul t r y P r o d u c t s Food and Feed Gra i n s Othe r Agricultural P r o d u c t s Fo r e s t r y an d Fi shery P r o d u c t s Agricultural, F o r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Coal Min i n g Ne w and R e s i dential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n Ne w Nonresid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n Meat Products Dai ry Produ c t s Cann e d and Frozen Food s Gra in Mill Pr o d u c t s Bake r y Pr oducts Sug ar Confectionary Products Soft Drinks and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s Appar el Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Mi llw ork, P l y wood and Oth e r W o o d P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d Furniture Other Fu rniture and Fixtu r e s Paper Products Paperboard New s p a p e r Print i n g and P u b l i s h i n g P e r iodical and Book Print in g, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g A g r icultural C h e m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c Rubb e r Drugs C l e a n i n g and Toile t P r e p a r a t i o n s Pain t s and Allied P r o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m Refin i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s Tires and Inner Tubes M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub b e r P r o d u c t s Plas t i c Pr oducts Glas s P o t t e r y and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Sto n e and Cl a y P r o d u c t s P r i m a r y Aluminum and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s Met al Stampings Cutle ry , Ha nd To o l s and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Other Fabricated P r o d u c t s Fa rm M a c h i n e r y Ma t e r i a l Handl i n g Equ i p m e n t Met al W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y Sp ecial In dus try M a c h i n e s 1963 1. 3. 4. 1. 7. 10 . 481 . 5223. 933 . 15. 7. 6. 3. 3. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 2. 3. 2. 1 1. 148. 54. 8. 3. 464. 46 . 9. 1. 0. 20 . 65. 1. 90 . 15. 3. 12. 15. 6. 1. 0. 16. 7. 1. 5. 0. 9. 7. 1967 2. 5. 15. 2. 20 . 20. 739. 8008. 10 19. 37. 8. 14. 6. 8. 1. 1. 5. 8. 1 1. 3. 7. 4. 27. 285. 1 15. 15. 5. 768. 64. 17. 2. 1. 49. 119. 2. 176. 29. 6. 21. 28. 11. 1. 0. 29. 29. 2. 13. 1. 19. 15. 1973 1980 3. 7. 23. 2. 29. 36 . 530 . 5894. 769. 70. - 1. 26. 9. 14. 1. 2. 9. 14. 16. 5. 10. 6. 50. 502. 174. 25. 7. 106 1 . 127. 28. 3. 1. 70. 197. 3. 325. 43. 8. 32. 43. 17. 2. 1. 43. 43. 3. 26. 2. 33. 27. 3. 4. 31 . 3. 38. 30. 5 11. 5839. 1107. 77. 6. 30 . 9. 15. 1. 2. 10. 14. 19. 6. 15 • l. 62. 682. 2 16. 28. 10. 1707 . 165. 29. 3. 1. 1 17. 26 1 . 3. 26 1 . 56. 11. 36. 57 . 21 . 2. 1. 53. 73. 4. 29. 2. 38. 32. 1985 2. 4. 26. 2. 32. 23. 395. 4634. 1064 . 60 . 7. 23. 7. 12. 0. 1. 8. 11. 15. 5. 1 1. 5. 49. 570 . 179. 22. 8. 1440 . 132. 22. 2. 1. 98. 211. 3. 207 . 45. 8. 28. 45. 16 . 2. 0. 42. 63. 3. 22. 2. 29. 25. 1990 2. 3. 21. 2. 26 . 18. 282. 3762. 924. 47 . 6. 18. 6. 9. 0. 1. 6. 9. 12. 4. 8. 4. 38. 475. 143. 17. 6. 1227. 104. 18. 2. 0. 78. 167 . 2. 167. 36. 7. 22. 35. 13. 2. 0. 34. 50 . 2. 17 . 1. 23. 19. Table A -2 0. Continued—State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 109 110 1 11 112 113 1 14 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 154 157 158 159 Se ct or Tit le M a c h i n e Sh o p Pr o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s a n d Per ip heral Equ i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Othe r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e In d u s t r y M a c h i n e s E l e c t r i c Tr a n s m i s s i o n E q u i pment E l e c t r i c a l Industrial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c Li g h t i n g a n d M i r i n g R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electr ic al P r o d u c t s M o t o r Ve h i c l e s S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l a n d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s O p t i c a l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Eq u i p m e n t P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s Matches* C l o c k s and Clo ck O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Loca l Transit and Int e r c i t y B u s e s Tru c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Mater Transportation Air Transportation Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Radi o a n d Tv R a d i o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g Electric Utilities Gas Utilities M a t e r and S a n i t a r y S e r v i c e s M h o l e s a l e Trade Ret a i l Tra de Insurance Rea l Esta te H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Places P e r s o n a l and Repair Se r v i c e s Miscellaneous Business Services A d v e r t i si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr o f e s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Repair Motion Pictures A m u s e m e n t a n d Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s D o c t o r s ’ a n d Dent ist s' S e r v i c e s Hospitals O t h e r M e d i c a l Se r v i c e s E d u c a t i o n a l S e r vices Nonprofit Organizations P o s t Office O t h e r State and Local G o v e r n m e n t O f f i c e Su p p l i e s Scrap* Used* a n d S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t I n d ustry 1963 1967 1973 1980 1985 1990 78. 29. 49. 70. 2. 8. 8. 35. 21. 34. 3. 2. 128. 9. 3. 9. 32. 1. 6. 38. 52. 17. 293. 59. 4. 50. 2. 7 1. 4. 467. 156. 47. 208. -540 . 117. 64. -90. 9. 312. 2. 95. 26. 16. -0. 8. -3. 9. 38. 8. 16. 10. 87. 202. 29215. 123. 60. 95. 123. 8. 17. 17. 76. 42. 7 1. 6. 5. 214. 21. 9. 17. 64. 3. 11. 42. 87 . 36 . 481 . 122. 7. 106. 3. 151. 10. 873. 192. 97. 421. -639. 165. 62. -299. 21. 367. 4. 81. 35. 32. -487. 46. -7. 26. 72. 18. 34. 17. 176. 121. 37241. 196. 106. 155. 225. 9. 33. 30. 138. 67. 181. 11. 9. 340. 40. 16. 27. 119. 5. 19. 121. 131. 64. 744. 197. 14. 169. 6. 265. 21. 1726. 570 . 17 1. 775. -1913. 349. 330 . -664. 42. 884. 6. 235. 84. 48. -1. 67. -15. 39. 170. 30. 57. 25. 250. 278. 48660. 247. 139. 201. 290. 9. 37. 38. 161. 93. 306. 13. 11. 453. 48. 23. 38. 156. 6. 20. 155. 178. 81. 1097. 269. 18. 216. 7. 405. 26. 2265. 836. 213. 968. -2906. 516. 583. -1049. 49. 1459. 7. 302. 112. 61. -1. 143. -16. 58. 257. 41. 73. 33. 411. 276. 54910. 198. 117. 158. 228. 7. 28. 30. 124. 76. 283. 10. 8. 362. 37. 18. 30. 122. 5. 16. 123. 144. 64. 951. 218. 14. 173. 6. 331. 20. 1829. 739. 166. 775. -237 1. 434. 535. -849. 37. 1246. 6. 242. 91. 50. -1. 135. - 12. 48. 224. 33. 58. 26. 337. 217. 56670. 157. 96. 124. 179. 5. 22. 23. 97. 62. 27 1. 8. 7. 286. 29. 14. 24. 96. 4. 12. 97. 115. 50. 816. 172. 11. 137. 5. 262. 15. 1534. 669. 130. 645. -1990. 368. 475. -720. 29. 1078. 5. 192. 72. 40. -1. 117. - 10. 38. 202. 26. 46. 21. 268. 171. 56664. Table A -21. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 4 5 6 7 11 15 16 17 19 21 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 45 46 47 48 50 51 52 53 54 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 66 69 80 81 82 84 85 Sect or Title Dairy and P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s Meat and Li vestock P r o d u c t s Fo od and Feed Gra i n s Other Ag r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t s F o r estry and Fis hery P r o d u c t s A g r i cultural, F o r e s t r y a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Coal M i n i n g Ne w an d R e s idential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n Ne w Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n New Pub l i c Util i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n All Oth er New C o n s t r u c t i o n M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n Meat P r o d u c t s Dairy P r o d u c t s Can n e d and Frozen Foods Gra in Mill Produ c t s Bakery Products Sug ar Confectionary Products Soft Dri n k s and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s Floor Coverings Miscellaneous Textile Goods Appar el Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products H o u s e h o l d Furniture Other Fu rni ture and F i x t u r e s Pape r Produ c t s Paperboard P e r i odical and Book Printing, P u b l i s h i n g Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing In dus trial I n o r ganic a n d O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Ag r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemi c a l P r o d u c t s Drug s C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s Pai n t s and Al li ed P r o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m R e f ining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s Tires and Inner Tubes Miscellaneous Rubber Products P l a s t i c Products F o o twear and Oth er L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s Glas s Pottery and Related Products Meta l Stampings Cu tlery, Hand To o l s a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Other Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s Farm M a c h i n e r y C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y 1963 10. 0. 0. 8. 2. 1. 1. 0. 612. 1525. 31. 441. 96. 48. 51. 5. 15. 2. 2. 6. 27. 22. 0. 0. 22. 10. 2. 5. 23. 6. 7. 8. 22. 1. 6. 262. 17. 1. 31. 8. 22. 3. 1. 26. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 10. 1967 14. 1. 1. 13. 3. 1. 2. 0. 867. 1549. 50. 205. 144. 7 1. 75. 7. 23. 3. 3. 9. 41 . 23. 0. 0. 15. 16. 3. 8. 39. 9. 5. 11. 32. 2. 9. 464. 27. 2. 60 . 17. 40 . 4. 1. 40. 3. 3. 5. 2. 3. 28. 1973 22. 0. 2. 20. 5. 1. 3. 0. 889. 2255. 45. 196 . 235. 110. 119. 12. 37. 5. 5. 15. 64. 87. 1. 0. 1 10. 31. 6. 18. 89. 13. 25. 33. 49. 2. 14. 986. 49. 3. 76. 19. 85. 6. 2. 72. 5. 6. 5. 2. 5. 31. 1980 22. 1. 2. 24. 6. 1. 3. 26. 817. 2784. 47. 216. 286. 149. 146. 12. 43. 3. 7. 20. 75. 107. 2. 0. 163. 44. 9. 36. 121. 16. 47. 72. 53. 3. 15. 1701. 74. 4. 86. 36. 113. 7. 3. 106. 7. 7. 11. 3. 7. 125. 1985 1990 27. 1. 2. 29. 7. 2. 4. 26. 796. 2999. 49. 274. 366. 187. 182. 15. 53. 3. 8. 25. 93. 114. 2. 1. 165. 50. 11. 51. 133. 21. 55. 86. 67. 3. 19. 2256. 88. 5. 90. 42. 117. 8. 4. 126. 9. 9. 13. 4. 8. 215. 33. 2^ 2. 35. 9. 2. 5. 25. 757. 3177. 49. 332. 452. 223. 216. 17 63. 4. 9. 29. 110. 124. 2. 1 174. 57 13 62. 149. 25. 64. 1 01. 79. 4. 22. 2813. 102. 6 93. 50. 125. 10 4. 145. 10. 11. 15. 5. 10. 266. Table A -2 1. C o ntinu ed-S tate and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990 (Millions o f 1972 dollars) Projected No. 87 88 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 103 109 110 111 112 102 113 1 14 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 124 126 127 128 129 130 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 154 157 158 159 Sector Title Metal Working Machinery S p e c i a l Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s M a c h i n e Shop Pr o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Oth e r Off i c e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment E l e c t r i c a l Industrial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c Light i n g and Wiri n g R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ctrical P r o d u c t s M o t o r Ve h i c l e s S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l a n d Den tal I n s t r u m e n t s O p t i c a l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Equipment P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u i pment and S u p p l i e s Watch e s * Clocks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e Musical Instruments and Sporting Goods Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Loc al Tran s i t and I n t ercity B u s e s Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Rad io a n d Tv Electric Utilities Gas Utilities W a t e r and S a n i t a r y Se r v i c e s W h o l e s a l e Tr ade Retail Trade Insurance Rea l Esta te H o t e l s and Lodgin g Pla ces P e r s o n a l a n d Rep a i r Se r v i c e s M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s i n e s s Se r v i c e s Adverti si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Repai r M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s A m u s e m e n t and Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Do ctors' and Dent is ts' Se r v i c e s Hospitals O t h e r Medi c a l S e r v i c e s E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s Nonprofit Organizations Post Off i c e O t h e r S t a t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t O f f i c e Su p p l i e s Sc rap* Used* and S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t Industry 1963 2. 0. 8. 2. 5. 13. 0. 2. 9. 1. 1. 1. 0. 12. 25. 32. 64. 1. 51. 1. 1. 0. 1. 8. 9. 40. 10. 16. 1. 32. 50. 19. 9. 135. 78. 28. 70. 31. 18. 171. 0. 130. 17. 0. 0. 274. 660 . 467. 18. 1. 52. 1. 22. - 1. 7325. 1967 1973 3. 0. 20. 3. 10. 26. 1. 3. 13. 3. 3. 2. 1. 17. 51. 49. 100. 5. 75. 1. 2. 1. 3. 13. 15. 85. 14. 28. 1. 59. 88. 20. 15. 227. 131. 55. 141. 57. 29. 265. 0. 212. 32. 0. 0. 6 16. 1287. 1120. 40. 2. 103. 2. 39. 26. 9550. 5. 1. 54. 7. 24. 33. 1. 5. 22. 6. 7. 3. 1. 31. 62. 76. 185. 8. 118. 1. 2. 1. 6. 25. 38. 212. 29. 69. 2. 144. 193. 53. 22. 424. 245. 126. 380. 151. 52. 737. 1. 528. 51. 1. 1. 1676. 2947. 3011. 109. 6. 263. 3. 99. 4. 13021. 1980 6. 1. 70. 15. 45. 105. 2. 6. 37. 8. 11. 3. 2. 52. 195. 143. 277. 12. 176. 2. 3. 3. 9. 37. 60. 296. 51. 106. 3. 238. 246. 70. 37. 587. 359. 197. 590. 240. 71. 1461. 1. 836. 87. 1. 1. 2507. 4241. 4237. 145. 10. 399. 4. 182. 3. 18461. 1985 8. 1. 68. 20. 56. 184. 2. 8. 46. 9. 11. 4. 2. 64. 321. 203. 324. 11. 221. 2. 3. 3. 9. 42. 66 . 291. 55. 117. 4. 254. 267. 83. 44. 702. 405. 197 . 630. 256. 82. 1756. 1. 929. 94. 1. 1. 2665. 4669. 4488. 140. 11. 416. 5. 198. 5. 21413. 1990 9. 1. 67. 24. 66. 249. 2. 10. 55. 9. 11. 5. 2. 76. 418. 253. 373. 11. 263. 3. 4. 3. 10. 47. 73. 299. 6 1. 130. 4. 277. 294. 96. 51. 836. 454. 204. 707 . 281. 93. 2114. 2. 1033. 102. 1. 1. 2945. 5364. 4890. 142. 12. 449. 5. 220 . 6. 23786. Table 22. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected <0 . 1 4 5 6 7 11 16 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 40 43 45 46 47 48 50 51 54 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 65 66 68 69 71 80 81 82 84 89 90 92 Sector Ti t l e Dair y and Poultry P r o d u c t s Food and Feed Grain s Othe r Agricultural P r o d u c t s Fores t r y an d Fi shery P r o d u c t s A g r i cultural, Fores t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Coal Min i n g New Nonresid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n O r d nance Meat Pr o d u c t s Dairy P r o ducts Cann e d and Frozen Foods Gra in Mill Produ c t s Bakery Pro duc ts Sug ar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s Soft Drin k s and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s To bacco M a n u f a c t u r e r s Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d M i l l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo d s Apparel Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Mi llwork, Plywood and O t h e r W o o d P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d Furn it ure Oth er Furn itu re a n d Fi x t u r e s Pap er Produ c t s Paperboard Periodical an d Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g M i s c e l l a n e o u s Che mi cal P r o d u c t s Dru gs Cl e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s Paints and Allied P r o d u c t s P e t r o l e u m R e f ining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s Tir es an d Inner Tu b e s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s Plastic Pr odu cts Fo otwear and Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s Gla ss S t r u ctural Clay P r o d u c t s P o t t e r y and Related P r o d u c t s Blast F u r naces and Ba s i c Ste el P r o d u c t s Metal Stampings Cutlery, Ha nd Tool s a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e Ot her Fabricated P r o d u c t s Farm M a c h i n e r y Ge neral In dus tria l M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Sho p Produ c t s T y p e w r i t e r s and O t h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t 1963 2. 0. 5. 1. 2. 1. 263. 54. 7. 24. 22. 10 . -2 . 12. 1. 3. 5. 15. - 1. 0. -2 . 34. -7. 0. 2. -3. 11. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. -3. 34. 13. 38. 1. 2. 2. -0 . 1. 3. -18. 4. -7. 4. 7. 1. 1. 1967 2. 0. 6. 1. 2. 1. 377. 102. 10 . 27. 24. 12. -2 . 14. 1. 3. 6. 17. - 1. 2. -2 . 39. -7. 0. 3. -2 . 14. 3. 2. 4. 3. 1. 5. -3. 43. 17. 44. 1. 2. 3. -0. 1. 3. -19. 5. -8 . 5. 9. 1. 1. 1973 1980 2. 1. 2. 0. 7. 1. 3. 2. 457. 9 1. 12. 34. 31. 14. -2 . 17. 1. 4. 7. 21. -2 . 1. -3. 48. - 10. 0. 4. -3. 17. 4. 2. 4. 2. 2. 6. -4. 52. 19. 38. 2. 3. 3. -0 . 2. 4. -25. 4. -10 . 6. 6. 1. 1. 9. 2. 3. 2. 517. 113. 14. 48. 50. 19. -2 . 25. 1. 5. 10. 30. -3. - 1. -3. 71. -15. 0. 4. -7. 21 . 6. 2. 3. 2. 3. 7. -6 . 40. 23. 53. 2. 4. 5. -1 . 3. 5. -39. 5. -15. 9. 8. 1. 1. 1985 3. 1. 11. 2. 5. 2. 521 . 146 . 15. 64. 70 . 25. -3. 34. 1. 7. 12. 39. -4. -2 . -4. 90 . - 20 . 1. 4. - 12. 24. 8. 2. 1. 3. 4. 7. -8 . 39. 25. 63. 3. 6. 6. -1 . 3. 6. -54. 6. -19. 12. 10. 2. 4 1990 3 1 12 3 5 2 513 173 15 74 82 27 -4 39 1 8 14 44 -4 -3 -4 98 - 22 1 4 -14 26 8 3 0 3 4 7 -9 36 26 76 3 6 7 -1 4 7 -62 7 - 21 13 12 2 2 Table A -2 2 . Continued—State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected ,No. 93 94 95 96 97 100 101 102 103 104 105 107 109 110 112 104 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 124 126 127 128 129 130 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 147 148 149 150 154 157 158 159 S e c t o r Title S e r v i c e Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u ipment E l e c t r i c a l I n d u strial A p p a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c L i g hting a n d W i r i n g R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t Electronic Components M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s M o t o r Ve h i c l e s Ai rcraft S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r Cycle s, Bi c y c l e s a n d Par ts S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s Wa t c h e s , Clo c k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Go o d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Local Transit a n d Int e r c i t y B u s e s Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Radio a n d Tv Electric Utilities Gas Utilities W a t e r and S a n i t a r y S e r vices W h o l e s a l e Tra de R e t a i l Tra de Insurance Re al Esta te H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Place s P e r s o n a l and R e p a i r Servi c e s Miscellaneous Business Services Adve rt i si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr o f e s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Repair M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s A m u s e m e n t a n d Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Doctors' and Dent is ts' S e r v i c e s Other Medical Services Educational Services Nonprofit Organizations P o s t Office O t h e r Sta t e a n d Loc al G o v e r n m e n t Office Supplies Scra p, Used, a n d S e c o n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t In d u s t r y 1963 1967 1973 1980 3. 1. 0. 3. 4. 17. 9. 3. 94. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 5. 0. 1. 2. -2 0 . 4. 5. 20. 2. 10. 1. 44. 44. 15. 5. 64. 1. 7. 25. 20. 6. 80. 1. 24. 24. 2. 0. 0. 8. 26. 9. 12. 4. 15. -30. 6104. 3. 1. 0. 3. 5. 21. 12. 4. 116. 2. 5. 9. 5. 3. 6. 0. 1. 2. -23. 4. 7. 23. 2. 13. 1. 54. 50. 13. 6. 82. 1. 9. 14. 26. 8. 92. 1. 28. 29. 3. 1. 0. 9. 30. 13. 15. 5. 20. -3. 7391. 4. 1. 0. 4. 6. 20. 10. 5. 131. 3. 7. 10. 6. 3. 8. 0. 1. 3. -23. 5. 8. 31. 2. 14. 1. 70. 64. 21. 6. 92. 1. 10. 41. 30. 9. 114. 1. 34. 36. 3. 1. 1. 11. 41. 15. 16. 6. 23. -13. 10228. 7. 1. 1. 6. 7. 25. 15. 7. 173. 4. 7. 12. 8. 4. 11. 0. 1. 4. -36. 7. 11. 39. 3. 18. 2. 98. 80. 25. 9. 114. 1. 13. 48. 40. 11. 149. 1. 43. 46. 4. 1. 1. 17. 51. 20. 22. 8. 33. - 11. 12816. 1985 8. 1. 1. 8. 9. 29. 17. 8. 195. 4. 7. 13. 8. 5. 14. 1. 2. 5. -45. 8. 12. 44. 4. 21. 2. 113. 95. 30. 11. 135. 2. 14. 52. 46. 12. 171. 1. 51. 51. 4. 1. 1. 23. 60. 21. 26. 9. 37. - 11. 14195. 1990 9. 1. 1. 9. 9. 33. 19. 8. 217. 4. 8. 13. 9. 6. 15. 1. 2. 6. -51. 9. 13. 48. 4. 23. 2. 125. 103. 33. 12. 149. 2. 15. 55. 50. 12. 191. 1. 55. 55. 4. 1. 1. 25. 66. 22. 28. 9. 39. - 11. 15168. Table A -23. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Projected No. 1 2 4 5 6 7 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 35 36 3-9 40 43 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 69 80 81 83 Sector T i t l e Da i r y an d P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s Me at and Live sto ck P r o d u c t s Food and Fe ed Grains Other A g r i cultural P r o d u c t s Fo r e s t r y an d Fishery P r o d u c t s A g r i cultural, Fores t r y a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s Coal M i n i n g St o n e a n d C l a y M i n i n g a n d Q u a r r y i n g Chemical and Fert i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g New and Residential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n New Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n New Pub l i c Utility C o n s t r u c t i o n New H i g h w a y C o n s t r u c t i o n All Other New C o n s t r u c t i o n M a i n t e n a n c e and Repair C o n s t r u c t i o n Meat Pr o d u c t s Dairy Pr o d u c t s C a n n e d and Froz en Foods Grai n Mill Pr oducts Bake r y P r o d u c t s Sug ar C o n f e c t i o n a r y Produ c t s Soft Dri n k s and F l a v o r i n g s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s Fabrics, Yar n an d T h r e a d M i l l s Flo or C o v e r i n g s Ap parel Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products Mi llw ork, P l y w o o d and O t h e r Ulood P r o d u c t s H o u s e h o l d Furniture Ot h e r Fu r n i t u r e and F i x t u r e s Paper Pr o d u c t s Paperboard N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g P e r iodical a n d Book Pri n t i n g , P u b l i s h i n g Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing Industrial I n o r ganic a n d O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s Agric u l t u r a l C h e m i c a l s M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ch emical P r o d u c t s Drug s C l e a n i n g and To ilet P r e p a r a t i o n s Paints and Allied Products P e t r o l e u m Refin i n g a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s Tires and Inn er Tub es M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s P o t t e r y and Related P r o d u c t s Met al S t a m p i n g s Cu tlery, Hand Too ls a n d G e n e r a l H a r d w a r e Engines, T u r b i n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s 1963 1. 1. 5. 46. 2. 4. 5. -54. 36. 569. 1831. 2100. 10648. 877. 3514. 29. 7. 1 1. 4. 6. 0. 1. 4. 6. 1. 0. 2. 6. 0. 4. 81 . 47. 1. 0. 23. 109. 15. 61. 1. 1. 20. 1. 85. 35. 14. 11. 0. 1. 5. 4. 1967 1. 3. 6. 52. 2. 13. 5. -62. 41 . 906 . 2571 . 3072. 11335. 1396 . 4 144. 28. 7. 11. 5. 6. 0. 1. 4. 6. 1. 0. 2. 7. 0. 4. 93. 50. 1. 0. 78. 128. 18. 64. 26. 1. 33. 2. 10 1 . 36. 12. 11. 0. 1. 6. 10. 1973 3. 2. 6. 77. 4. 2. 9. -41 . 28. 745. 2886. 2245. 9290 . 827. 4101. 64. 16. 24. 7. 13. 1. 2. 8. 13. 1. 1. 4. 10. 0. 4. 1 15. 106. 1. 1. 54. 264. 12. 77. 2. 3. 38. 3. 170. 58. 11. 19. 1. 2. 9. 7. 1980 3. 6. 6. 106. 5. 9. 9. -6 8 . 51. 729. 3093. 2412. 8153. 914. 4748. 84. 23. 32. 8. 16. 1. 2. 1 1. 16. 2. 1. 7. 15. 1. 15. 179. 132. 2. 1. 79. 407. 18. 1 12. 2. 4. 56. 4. 148. 95. 19. 25. 1. 3. 13. 14. 1985 3. 7. 6. 113. 5. 15. 10. -63. 46. 810. 3140. 2553. 817 1. 97 1. 5129. 91. 25. 35. 9. 18. 1. 2. 12. 17. 2. 2. 8. 18. 1. 14. 186. 149. 2. 2. 87. 451 . 17. 112. 3. 5. 64. 5. 158. 97. 17. 24. 2. 3. 16. 15. 1990 3. 7. 6. 114. 6. 16. 10. -63. 47. 800 . 3184. 26 17. 8204. 998. 5163. 97. 27. 38. 10. 19. 1. 3. 13. 18. 2. 2. 8. 19. 1. 15. 199. 157. 2. 2. 92. 489. 20. 109. 3. 5. 67. 5. 163. 98. 16. 24. 2. 4. 16. 16. Table A -2 3. Continued—State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990 (Millions of 1972 dollars) Proj ect e d No. 84 85 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 10 1 102 103 105 106 109 110 111 112 113 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 ☆ US. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1979 0-281-412 (114) 124 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 135 136 137 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 147 148 149 150 154 157 158 159 Sect or Titl e Fa r m M a c h i n e r y Construction Mining and Oilfield Machinery Metal Working Machinery S p e c i a l Industry M a c h i n e s G e n e r a l In dus trial M a c h i n e r y M a c h i n e Sho p Pr o d u c t s C o m p u t e r s and Peri p h e r a l E q u i p m e n t T y p e w r i t e r s and Other Offic e E q u i p m e n t S e r v i c e I n d ustry M a c h i n e s E l e c t r i c Tr a n s m i s s i o n Equ ipment E l e c t r i c a l In dus trial App a r a t u s Household Appliances E l e c t r i c Light i n g a n d Wiri n g R a d i o a n d Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equipment E l e c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s M i s c e l l a n e o u s El ect rical P r o d u c t s M o t o r Ve h i c l e s S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r R a i l r o a d Eq uipment S c i e n t i f i c an d C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s M e d i c a l a n d Dental Instr u m e n t s O p t i c a l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Equ ip ment P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s Watch e s * Cloc k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products Railroad Transportation Loc al Tran s i t and I n t ercity B u s e s Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Water Transportation Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Pipeline Transportation C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Except Radio a n d Tv E l e c t r i c Uti l i t i e s Gas U t i l i t i e s W a t e r a n d S a n i t a r y Servi c e s W h o l e s a l e Tra de R e t a i l Tra de Bank ing C r e d i t A g e n c i e s a n d Finan ci al B r o k e r s Insurance Rea l Esta te H o t e l s and Lodging Place s P e r s o n a l and Repair S e r vices M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s i n e s s Servi c e s Ad verti si ng M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r o fessional S e r v i c e s A u t o m o b i l e Re pair M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s A m u s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s Doctors' and Den ti st s' Se r v i c e s O t h e r Medical Se r v i c e s E d u c a t i o n a l Servi c e s Nonprofit Organizations Po s t O f f i c e O t h e r St a t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t O f f i c e S u p plies Scr ap * Used* and Seco n d h a n d G o v e r n m e n t Industry 1963 18. 176. 11. 1967 18. 121. 16 . 0 . 0 . 4. 8. 2. 9. 33. 5. 56. 35. 0 . 8. 1. 3. 8. 45. 6. 47. 31. 1. 10. 1. 1973 27. 123. 22. 1. 8. 2. 14. 47. 10. 126. 78. 0 . 0 . 0 . 11. 2. 1. 23. 2. 8. 592. 2. 12. 22. 2. 2. 19. 1. 27. 10. 29. 41. 72. 4. 77. 2. 256. 420. 73. -8 8 . 189. 8. 1001. 140. 44. 319. 141. 10. 373. 27. 49. 74. 7. -13. 31. 4. 9. 672. 2. 11. 32. 1. 0. 35. 1. 39. 11. 31. 68. 100 . 5. 98. 2. 277. 529. 78. -62. 222. 11. 1022. 144. 60. 328. 160. 10. 633. 27. 135. 91 . 5. -6 . 37. 4. 13. 841. 4. 27. 44. 3. 3. 43. 1. 51. 18. 51. 90. 147. 7. 169. 4. 606 . 591. 146. -16 1 . 325. 15. 2437. 342. 103. 759. 323. 23. 898. 64. 100. 158. 12. -26. 0 . 0 . 0 . 22. 23. 41. 19. 123. 4. 113. 1335. 12055. 54. 41. 74. 277. 10. 253. 648. 15341. 19. 23. 118. 4. 109. 632. 10073. 1980 1985 44. 129. 24. 1. 12. 5. 27. 72. 14. 135. 85. 1. 18. 3. 1. 37. 6. 21. 1151. 6. 24. 48. 6. 5. 6 1. 2. 78. 29. 76. 133. 194. 11. 238. 5. 1069. 776. 196. -298. 463. 23. 3449. 469. 149. 1078. 465. 32. 1353. 91. 144. 239. 21. -51. 1. 74. 55. 97. 376. 13. 402. 805. 18914. 41. 123. 23. 1. 11. 5. 25. 69. 14. 141. 90. 1. 20. 4. 1. 38. 6. 72. 1102. 6. 23. 48. 6. 6. 69. 2. 90. 33. 78. 145. 206. 11. 261. 6. 1386. 784. 202. -316. 477. 24. 4114. 529. 166. 1304. 520. 36. 1649. 10 1 . 164. 264. 22. -53. 1. 83. 63. 106. 425. 15. 453. 731. 20243. 1990 40. 127. 25. 1. 11. 5. 24. 7 1. 14. 165. 105. 0 . 21. 4. 1. 43. 7. 73. 1197. 7. 27. 52. 6. 7. 76. 2. 93. 34. 80. 154. 214. 11. 276. 6. 1586. 797. 200. -36 1. 493. 25. 4581. 555. 174. 1459. 551. 37. 1837. 107. 172. 281. 23. -64. 1. 87. 66. 114. 446. 16. 476. 739. 22508. Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional Offices Region I Region IV Regions VII and V III* 1 6 0 3 J F K F e d e ra l B u ild in g 1371 P e a c h tre e S tre e t, N E . 911 W aln u t S tr e e t G o v e r n m e n t C e n te r A tlan ta. G a 3 0 3 0 9 K ansas C ity, M o. 6 4 1 0 6 B o sto n . M ass 0 2 2 0 3 P h o n e: (4 0 4 ) 8 8 1 -4 4 1 8 P h o n e: (8 1 6 ) 3 7 4 -2 4 8 1 P h o n e: (6 1 7 ) 2 2 3 -6 7 6 1 Region V Region II 9 th F lo o r R egions IX and X ** 4 5 0 G o ld e n G a te A v e n u e S u ite 3 4 0 0 F e d e ra l O ffic e B u ild in g Box 3 6 0 1 7 1515 B ro a d w a y 2 3 0 S D e a rb o rn S tre e t S an F ra n c is c o . C alif. 9 4 1 0 2 N e w York. N Y 1 0 0 3 6 C h ic a g o . III. 6 0 6 0 4 Phone: (4 1 5 )5 5 6 -4 6 7 8 Phone: (2 1 2 )3 9 9 -5 4 0 5 P h o n e :(3 1 2 )3 5 3 -1 8 8 0 Region III Region VI 3 5 3 5 M a r k e t S tre e t S e c o n d F lo o r P O 5 5 5 G riffin S q u a re B u ild in g Box 1 3 3 09 P h ila d e lp h ia , Pa 19101 D allas. Tex. 7 5 2 0 2 P h o n e : (2 1 5 ) 5 9 6 -1 1 5 4 P h o n e : (2 1 4 ) 7 4 9 -3 5 1 6 * Regions VII and VIII are serviced by Kansas City "Regions IX and X are serviced by San Francisco