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Employment Outlook and Changing Occupational Struture in Electronics Manufacturing Bulletin No. 1363 U N ITE D S TA TE S DEPARTM ENT OF LABO R W . W i ll a rd W i rtz , Sec re ta ry BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague, Commissioner Docs ERRATA SHEET Employment Outlook and Changing Occupational Structure in Electronic Manufacturing, bulletin No« 1353, U.S* Department of Labor, Rureau of Labor Statistics Page 1, column 1, line 7 delete 1950 and insert 1951 Pag* 7, column 2, last paragraph Transpose to page 5, column 1, immediately before section beginning "Employment Size of Electronics Establishments" P~ge 4 7 , -footnote 90, last line delete 3 and insert ? Employment Outlook and Changing Occupational Structure in Electronics Manufacturing Bulletin No. 1363 October 1963 UNITED STA TES DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR W. Willard W irtz, Secretary BUREA U O F LA BO R S TA TIS TIC S Ewan Clague, Commissioner PREFACE Few industries have shown such dynamic growth and change in our generation as electronics manufacturing. Originally consisting of only the manufacture of radios and, later, television sets, the electronics industry has become indispensable to the country’s military and space programs and the production of many industrial and commercial products, as well as in the home. Continued rapid change in the nature of the industry is expected under the impact of an electronic technology which is broadening in scope and growing in complexity. With the realization that electronics manufacturing has become one of the Nation's basic and vitally important industries has come an increased interest in information about the size, com position, and growth of the electronics manufacturing work force. Accurate manpower information for the industry, however, is not readily available. Employment estimates are rough approxima tions since employment data collected on a national basis are so classified that employment in electronics cannot be clearly separated from employment in other activities. Future manpower requirements are difficult to project because of the rapidity of the industry's growth and change. This study was made not only to help fill the gaps in manpower information for the industry but also to show the approach used for doing this. It provides estimates of employment in electronics manufacturing for the period 1958-61 and projections of manpower requirements by 1970, classi fied by major product category and with some detail as to occupation and sex. Hie study also describes the methodology and sources used for developing these estimates and projections. It is hoped that this information m&y be helpful for such purposes as: (1) Planning educational and training programs adequate to meet anticipated manpower and skill needs of the industry; (2) pro* viding vocational counseling and placement for young men and women seeking career opportuni ties; (3) developing employment estimates and projections for detailed segments of the industry, specific localities of the country, or years other than those covered here; and (4) generally im proving employment and occupational statistics and techniques for projection in the electronics manufacturing field. Although some material was obtained through talks and interviews with industry, labor, and Federal Government officials engaged in electronics work, most of the information for the study came from secondary sources, such as periodicals, books, special reports and studies, and newspaper articles. "Data available from the Electronic Industries Association, a major trade association in this field, were especially helpful, as were those from Federal legislative com mittees and Federal agencies. In a few instances data used in the study were subsequently slightly revised by the issuing organization, but too late for incorporation here. This was the case with some of die statistics of the Electronic Industries Association. This bulletin was prepared by Russell B. Flanders under the supervision of Joseph F. Fulton, who also participated in the writing. The study was directed by Bernard Yabroff in the Bureau's Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook, under the general direction of Harold Goldstein, Assistant Commissioner for Manpower and Employment Statistics. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.G., 20402 - Price 40 cents CONTENTS Page 1 Summary of Findings Chapter 1. Scope and Nature of Electronics Manufacturing *•.*****•*•*•**••*•••*.•.•*•«•*..••**•*••«• Product classification by major category, I.******.******...*.*********.....* Product classification by SIC code ,•••••„< Nature of electronics manufacturing I***.**.***.**.**..**.*.*..*.*.*....... Location of employment in electronics manufacturing Employment size of electronics establishments 3 3 4 4 5 Chapter 2. Historical Growth of Electronics Manufacturing., Trends in major product categories, 1950-61, Military and 5pace products *******•••••••*•***•••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Industrial and commercial products............,..........................*..*..,.*....*.*,....*,***,*,* Consumer products...... Electronic components 14 15 15 15 17 17 Chapter 3. Estimates and Projections of Electronics Manufacturing Employment............. Employment and shipments estimates and projections Military and space products Industrial and commercial products Consumer products *•••••**•****•**••.•••*••*..*•• Components., Methodology for deriving employment estimates and projections , 23 23 23 24 25 25 26 Chapter 4. Occupational Trends and Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing .. Nonproduction and production workers Mechanization in end-equipment manufacturing Mechanization in components manufacturing ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••*.••••. Occupational distributions and trends Women workers 31 31 32 33 33 35 Appendix A. Methodology ................................................................................................................ Derivation of employment estimates and projections, by major electronic product cate gory ...... Derivation of electronics shipments estimates and projections •••••••••••••••••••••••*••••..••• Conversion of shipments from current to constant dollar estimates •••••••••••••••.•••*••• Projections of constant dollar shipments Derivation of projection for military and space electronics shipments ••*•••••••••••••* Derivation of projection for industrial and commercial electronics shipments..,.... Derivation of projection for consumer electronics shipments •••••••••.••••••••••••••••••* Derivation of projection for electronic components shipments **•••••*•*••«•****..•.••••• Derivation of electronics shipments-per-employee estimates and projections Distribution of employment estimates and projections between nonproduction and produc tion workers and between men and women workers, by major electronic product cate gory 40 40 40 41 42 42 44 44 45 45 Appendix B. Selected Bibliography 55 V 6 48 CONTENTS - -Continued TEXT TABLES Page . 1 Employment in electronics manufacturing. by region and State, January 1958 and Jan2 Employment in military-space and industrial-commercial electronics manufacturing, by region and State, January 1958 and January 1961........................................... 3. Employment in consumer electronics manufacturing, by region and State, January 4. Employment in electronic components manufacturing, by region and State, January 1958 and January 1961.................................................................................................. . 5. Employment size of establishments in electronics manufacturing, by SIC industry. 6 Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, 1950-62............................. 7. Department of Defense expenditures for military functions, fiscal years, 1954-63 ..... 8 Value of industrial and commercial electronics shipments, 1956-61................................ 9. Quantity and value of television and radio production, by type of unit, 1950-61........... 10. Quantity and value of phonograph sales, by type of unit, and value of sales of phono graph records, 1950-61................................................................................. 11 Value of electronic component shipments, by use as original equipment or replacement parts, 1950-61............................................................................................. 12. Value of electronic component shipments, by type of component, 1950-61................. 13. Employment in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 14. Value of electronics shipments in constant 1960 dollars, by product category, esti mates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 ••••••••••••••••••••*•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 15. Nonproduction and production workers in electronics manufacturing, by product cate gory, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••*•••••••••••• 16. Illustrative occupational distributions in electronics manufacturing, military-space and consumer products, mid-1962M9(MMMWC(«««MMwM«*«MMMMN*MMM*«*MM*M*MM«f*MM 17. Women workers as percent of all workers in electronics manufacturing occupations, by major product category, mid-1962 18. Men and women workers in electronics manufacturing, byproduct category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970. APPENDIX TABLES A -l. Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, estimates for 1950-62 in constant 1960 dollars and current dollars, and projections for 1970 in constant 1960 A-2. Selected data used to develop 1970 projection for military and space electronics shipA-3. Selected data used to develop 1970 projections for industrial-commercial and con sumer electronics shipments ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••a A-4, Electronics shipments and shipments per employee (in constant 1960 dollars), and employment, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970... A-5. Distribution of employment between nonproduction and production workers, and women workers, in selected electronics manufacturing industries, 1958-61 ••••••••••••••••••••• A-6. Nonproduction and production workers, and women workers, in electronics manufac turing, by product category, 3 projections for 1970 CHARTS 1. Employment in electronics manufacturing. Estimates 1958-61, and projections, 1970............. 2. Employment increases in electronics manufacturing. Estimates 1958-61, and projections, 1961-70........ . . . . vi 8 9 10 11 12 18 19 20 20 21 21 22 28 30 36 37 38 39 49 50 51 52 53 54 29 29 Employment Outlook and Changing Occupational Structure in Electronics Manufacturing SUMMARY OF FINDINGS The electro n ics m anufacturing industryin the United States has grown w ith ex tre m e rap id ity in recen t y e a rs, and is expected to show su b stan tial fu rth er grow th during the re s t of the 1960's. Em ploym ent in the in d u stry was estim ated at 778,000 w o rk ers in I9 6 0 --m o re than th ree tim es what it was in 1950--and is expected to reach n early 1.1 m illion by 1970. Shipm ents of electro n ic products w ere estim ated at $10.8 billion in 1961 and a re p ro jected to n e a rly $20 billion by 1970 (constant I960 d o llars). These estim ates and p ro jectio n s, devel oped by the B ureau of L abor S tatistics to help provide m anpow er inform ation for electro n ics m anufacturing (defined to in c l u d e re se a rc h and developm ent (R&D) as w ell as production), do not cover e le c tro n ic s activity in the F e d e ra l G overnm ent, u n iv e rsitie s, and nonprofit re se a rc h cen te rs , in which at le a st 55,000 w o rk ers a re estim ated to have been engaged in late I960 (chiefly in re se a rc h , developm ent, and the negotiation and ad m in istratio n of con tra c ts ). The p rojections should be view ed only as indications of g en eral m agnitudes and directio n s of change. Some of the h is to ric a l se rie s upon which they a re based do not extend back m any y e a rs, and even if they did would not n e c e ssa rily be too help ful since the p ast is an u n certain guide to the future in the rapidly changing e le c tro n ic s field. The pro jectio n s, m o reover, a re heavily influenced by the m ajor a s sum ptions used in deriving them . The grow th ra te p ro jected for electro n ics m anufacturing em ploym ent during the 1960's is expected to v ary among the m ajor categ o ries into which electro n ic products a re g en erally classified . In 1961, em ploy m ent was d istrib u ted among these c a te g o ries in the following estim ated p ro p o r tions: 36 p ercen t in the m anufacture of m ilita ry and space electronic equipm ent, another 36 p ercen t in the m anufacture of electro n ic com ponents, 16 p ercen t in indus tria l and co m m ercial electro n ic equipm ent, and 11 p ercen t in consum er electro n ic pro d u cts. By 1970, these pro p o rtio n s a re expected to be about 42 p ercen t in m ilita ry and space electro n ic equipm ent, 30 p ercen t in electro n ic com ponents, 17 p ercen t in in d u strial and co m m ercial electro n ic equip m ent, and 11 p ercen t in consum er e le c tro n ic p roducts. The m ilita ry and space electro n ic equip m ent category is expected to expand rapidly, because of such m ajo r influences as the grow ing electro n ic sophistication and com plexity of sp acecraft, m issile s, a irc ra ft, and other defense item s; the national effort to com plete a m anned lu n ar expedition before 1970; and the in creasin g size and im portance of the m ilita ry space p ro g ram . The relativ e sh are of electro n ics em ploy m ent devoted to com ponents m anufacturing is expected to fall during the rem ain d er of the 1960's. One reaso n is that shipm ents p er w orker in com ponents m anufacture is expected to ris e fa ste r than the in d u stry av erag e. A nother is th at the growing use of tra n s is to rs and o th er so lid -sta te com po nents is expected to in c re a se the reliab ility , length of life, and v e rsa tility of com ponents and th erefo re d ecrease the ra te of com po nent rep lacem en t and the num ber of com ponents needed to do a given job. Em ploym ent in the m anufacture of indus tria l and co m m ercial electro n ic products is expected to in c re a se during the rem ain d er of the 1960's at a slightly fa ste r ra te than em ploym ent in electro n ics m anufacturing as a whole, as the dem and for these p ro d ucts, esp ecially for com puters and data processing equipm ent, continues to ris e . In the consum er electro n ics field, em ploy m ent in 1970 is p ro jected at roughly the sam e p r o p o r t i o n of to tal electro n ics em ploym ent as in 1961. T elevision sets, rad io s, and phonographs a re expected to con tinue as the p rin cip al consum er electro n ic 1 1950 and an estim ated tw o-fifths in 1961, and a re expected to account fo r n e a rly half by 1970. The grow ing im portance of R&D w ork, and of low -volum e production of item s m ade to o rd e r on a co n tract b a sis, in c re a se s the need for en g in eers and other technical p ersonnel and d e c re a se s the need for sem i skilled and unskilled production w o rk ers. F o r exam ple, the num ber of en g in eers and scien tists in electro n ics m anufacturing in c re a se d n e a rly tenfold betw een 1951 and 1960--from an estim ated 13,000 to an estim ated 128,000--co m p ared w ith a th re e fold in c re a se in to tal electro n ics em ploy m ent over approxim ately the sam e period. A nother facto r influencing expansion in the relativ e size of the nonproduction w ork force is the continual introduction of tech nological changes, which tends to d ecrease the num ber of production w o rk ers needed to produce a given output. F inally, the grow th of recordkeeping and com m unication req u irem en ts in m odern b u sin ess has caused an in c re a se in num bers of c le ric a l and other office w o rk ers in electro n ics m anufacturing, despite the introduction and expanded use of im proved office equipm ent, esp ecially for data p ro cessin g . Women re p re se n t a larg e but declining p ro p o rtio n of the to tal w ork fo rce in e le c tro n ics m anufacturing. B ecause they a re em ployed m ainly as production w o rk ers in m ass-volum e o p eratio n s, such as the m anu factu re of consum er products and sem i conductors, tubes, and o th er com ponents, th e ir p ro p o rtio n of the to tal electro n ics m anufacturing w ork force has been de creasin g and is expected to continue to d e c re a se, from an estim ated 50 p ercen t in 1950 to 41 p ercen t in 1961 and a p ro jected 39 p ercen t by 1970. In te rm s of num bers, how ever, th e ir em ploym ent is expected to grow , from an estim ated 320,000 in 1961 to about 423,000 by 1970. item s during the decade of the 1960's, although m any new consum er electro n ic products w ill becom e available co m m er cially . P roduction p ro c e sse s v a ry w idely among the m ajor electro n ic product categ o ries, and these d ifferen ces a re reflected in dif feren ces in occupational d istrib u tio n s. The m anufacture of m ilita ry and space products, and to a le s s e r extent of in d u strial and co m m ercial pro d u cts, involves a g reat deal of re s e a rc h and developm ent w ork and low volum e production of custom -m ade end products and re q u ire s re la tiv e ly larg e p ro p ortions of p ro fessio n al and other highly tra in e d w o rk ers. In com parison, the m anu factu re of consum er products and com po nents tends to be an assem b ly -lin e, m assproduction operation involving relativ ely la rg e p roportions of sem isk illed m anual w o rk ers. Illu strativ e occupational d is tri butions co llected for this study indicate th at in m id -1962 nonproduction w o rk e rs-en g in eers and o ther technical w o rk ers, ad m in istrativ e and executive p erso nnel, and c le ric a l and stenographic em p lo y ees--w ere in the m ajo rity (60 p ercen t of the w ork fo rce) in m ilita ry and space electro n ics m anufacturing but in the m inority (30 p e r cent of the w ork force) in consum er e le c tro n ic s m anufacturing. In m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic s, 33 p ercen t of the w ork fo rce w ere engineers and other technical w o rk ers and 27 p ercen t w ere sem isk illed and unskilled w o rk ers, while in the con su m er products field, 11 percen t w ere en g in eers and o th er technical w o rk ers and 63 p ercen t w ere sem isk illed and unskilled w o rk ers. N onproduction w o rk ers have been in cre a sin g rapidly as a proportion of to tal electro n ics em ploym ent. They re p resen ted roughly one-fifth of such em ploym ent in 2 CHAPTER 1. SCOPE AND NATURE OF ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING The electro n ics in d u stry is engaged in "that branch of science and technology w hich deals with the study and application of techniques to d ire c t and control the con duction of e le c tric ity in a gas, vacuum , a liquid, o r a so lid -state m a te ria l. E lectro n tubes and sem iconductors are com bined w ith re s is to rs , cap acito rs, tra n sfo rm e rs and sim ila r com ponents in equipm ents which detect, m easu re, reco rd , com pute and com m unicate in fo rm atio n ."1 The d is tinguishing featu re of electronic products as opposed to p u rely e le c tric a l ones is that, although e le c tric ity flows through the c irc u itry of both, electro n ic products also include tubes and sem iconductors which can discharge, d ire c t, control, o r o th e r w ise influence the flow of that e le c tricity . The E lectronic In d u stries A ssociation, a m ajo r trad e asso ciatio n in the electro n ics m anufacturing field, e stim a te s that about 2,000 types of electro n ic products a re m anufactured in th is co u n try .** They a re ex trem ely v aried in end u se, function, value, size, and fo rm . They range from "m icro sco p ic com ponents le ss than a thou sandth of an inch in d iam eter to giant com puting and control sy ste m s." 5 resen tativ e exam ples of th ese p roducts include guidance and checkout sy stem s; telem eterin g , ground track in g , and support equipm ent; ra d a r, so n ar, in frared , and other detection sy stem s and devices; gyro scopes and o th er navigational equipm ent; fire control devices; and high-speed com m unication equipm ent. R ep resen tativ e in d u stria l and co m m ercial electro n ic products include com puters; testing and m easuring in stru m en ts; in d u stria l co n tro l and p ro c essing equipm ent; electro n ic in stru m en ts fo r n u clear w ork, such as re a c to r sensing co n tro ls and rad iatio n detection devices; telev isio n and radio broadcasting equip m ent; m icrow ave devices; m edical and therapeutic equipm ent, such as X -ra y sy s tem s and d iath erm y units; and navigational in stru m en ts for civ il and p riv ate a irc ra ft, ships, etc. C onsum er products include som e of the m ost fa m ilia r kinds of electro n ic equipm ent and also som e of the new est. E xam ples are telev isio n and radio receiving sets; phono g raphs, high fidelity and stereophonic sound equipm ent; tape re c o rd e rs ; hearing aids; electro n ic ovens; and hom e in terco m m u n i cation sy stem s. Com ponents a re u su ally classified in th ree broad groups: tubes, sem iconductors, and "other com ponents." Tubes include receiving, pow er, telev isio n p ictu re, and v ario u s sp ecial-p u rp o se tubes. P rin c ip a l sem iconductor devices a re tra n sis to rs , diodes, and re c tifie rs . "O ther com ponents" include such item s as c a p acito rs, re s is to rs , tra n sfo rm e rs, re la y s, connec to rs , and sw itches. F o r som e p u rp o ses, com ponents a re c lassified in another way, as eith er (1) o rig in al equipm ent o r (2) r e placem ent p a rts. PRODUCTION CLASSIFICATION BY MAJOR CATEGORY One frequently used classificatio n divides electro n ic products into four m ajor c a te g o ries: (1) M ilitary and space products, (2) in d u stria l and co m m ercial products, (3) consum er p roducts, and (4) com ponents. The firs t th ree categ o ries re p re se n t end pro d u cts, while the fourth co n sists of the p a rts and a c c e sso rie s which go into end pro d u cts. M ilitary and space electro n ic products a re v ital p a rts of m issile s, sp acecraft, a ir c ra ft, tanks, ships, and o ther item s used in national defense and space p ro g ram s. R ep B ecause the c lassificatio n of electro n ic end equipm ent as m ilita ry -sp a c e , indus tria l-c o m m e rc ia l, o r consum er products is in te rm s of intended u se, the sam e type of item m ay be c lassified in m ore than one way if it can be m anufactured for m ore than one kind of end u se. A radio re c e iv e r, fo r instance, would be classified in the m ilita ry and space categ o ry if produced for 1 Electronic Industries Association, Electronic Industries 1962 Yearbook. Washington, D.C., September 1962, p. 1. * Ibid. 9 Ibid. 3 use in a m ilita ry a irc ra ft, in the in d u strial and co m m ercial secto r if intended for use in a civil a irc ra ft, and in the consum er products group if sold for use in a p riv ate hom e. Although com puters a re usually d is cu ssed in th is re p o rt in te rm s of the in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ia l group, m any com p u ters a re m anufactured for in stallatio n in o r ground support of m ilita ry or space c ra ft. N avigational devices m ay be m ade fo r m ilita ry and space c ra ft, for co m m er cial ships and planes, o r even for consum er use in p leasu re boating. Many other ex am ples could be cited of electronic item s which can be m anufactured for m ore than one kind of end u se. activ ity .5 A ccording to the 1958 U.S. C ensus of M anufactures--th e m ost recen t com plete count of m anufacturing a c tiv ity --a s m any as 20 SIC 4 -digit in d u stries (listed in appendix A) each rep o rted at le a st $25 m illion w orth of electro n ics shipm ents in that year, and a few additional 4 -digit in d u strie s each rep o rted le s s than $25 m illion in ele c tro n ics shipm ents. Developing accu rate estim ates of electro n ics shipm ents and em ploym ent on the b asis of the SIC code is a com plicated p ro ced u re; one of the p u r poses of this re p o rt is to show an approach for doing th is. NATURE OF ELECTRONICS MANUFAC TURING P roduct specifications and p erform ance req u irem en ts v ary with intended end u se. In gen eral, m ilita ry and space electro n ic equipm ent and th e ir com ponents have the m ost rig o ro u s req u irem en ts for reliab ility , ruggedness, quality control, accuracy, and o th er c h a ra c te ris tic s . C onsum er products and th e ir com ponents g en erally have the le a st rig o ro u s stan d ard s, while p e rfo rm ance to le ran ces for in d u strial and com m e rc ia l equipm ent and th e ir com ponents u su ally fall betw een these two lim its. PRODUCT CLASSIFICATION BY SIC CODE In its com pilation of sta tistic s on ship m ents, em ploym ent, earnings, and other econom ic v a ria b le s, the F e d e ra l G overn m ent u ses the Standard In d u strial C la ssi fication (SIC) system , a code which co v ers all econom ic activity.4 The data collected by the F e d e ra l G overnm ent re p re se n t probably the m ain body of quantitative inform ation about the electro n ics industry. The code does not, how ever, read ily identify all electro n ics m anufacturing, w hich is sc a tte re d through at le a st two dozen of the m ore than 400 SIC 4 -digit in d u strie s used to cover m anufacturing 4 The SIC code is contained in the Standard Industrial Classifi cation Manual, 1957 edition, and the 1958 Supplement to that edition, both prepared by the Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. The SIC code was developed, according to p. 1 of the Manual, "for purposes of facilitating the collection, tabulation, presentation, and analysis of data relating to estab lishments; and for promoting uniformity and comparability in the presentation of statistical data collected by various agencies of the United States Government, State agencies, trade associa tions, and private research organizations." 4 M anufacturing p ro c e sse s in the e le c tro n ics in d u stry a re n e c e ssa rily ex trem ely v aried , in view of the wide range of e le c tro n ic products and the g reat differences in th e ir functions and p u rp o ses. The m ost ex trem e d ifferen ces are found in a com p ariso n betw een the fields of m ilita ry -sp a c e and consum er e le c tro n ic s. In d u strial-co m m e rc ia l electro n ics production g en erally falls betw een these ex trem es, and com po nents m anufacturing tends to v ary according to the type of end equipm ent for w hich the com ponents a re m ade. P erfo rm an ce req u irem en ts fo r m ilita ry and space electro n ic item s a re ex trem ely rig o ro u s. Hum an life m ay depend upon the reliab ility , accu racy , and ruggedness of these item s; in the case of unm anned sp acecraft, a flight m ay be aborted or ren d ered otherw ise u nsuccessful because of the m alfunction of an electro n ic system o r p a rt. R equirem ents for m ilita ry and space item s a re not only sev ere but also constantly changing to m eet the needs of an expanding space pro g ram and changing national defense p a tte rn s. The ra te of ob solescence is high. E ver sm a lle r devices and ev er low er pow er req u irem en ts are sought, to overcom e lim itatio n s o. b o o ster pow er, fuel, and other energy so u rces. C onsum er pro d u cts, on the o th er hand, a re g en erally m uch m ore standardized and p e r form ance req u irem en ts stan d ard s a re not n early so rig o ro u s. 5 The more than 400 manufacturing industries consist of SIC industries 1911 to 3999. It should be noted that this study ex cludes electronics activity outside these manufacturing indus tries, such as that in the Armed Forces, the Federal Government (SIC 91), nonprofit research centers and universities (SIC 8291), engineering service establishments (SIC 8911), and commercial research laboratories (SIC 7391). R esearch and developm ent w ork is a m uch la rg e r p a rt of the m anufacture of m ilita ry -sp a c e electro n ics than in con su m er e le c tro n ic s,6 M ilitary and space item s are com m only hand m ade in re la tiv ely sm all num bers on a co n tract b a sis, w hile consum er item s a re g en erally m ass produced, using autom ated and m echanized p ro c e sse s, for m ass distrib u tio n . The p ro p o rtio n of en g in eers, sc ie n tists, technicians, and skilled craftsm en in the w ork force is re la tiv e ly high in m ilita ry -sp a c e electro n ics production and relativ ely low in the con su m er products field. C orrespondingly, the p ro p o rtio n of sem iskilled and unskilled assem b ly -lin e production w o rk ers is com p arativ ely low in m ilita ry - space electro n ics and high in consum er e lectro n ics. The p ro po rtio n of women w o rk ers, who tend to be concentrated in the sem isk illed and unskilled production jobs, is g en erally low er in m ilita ry - space electro n ics than in consum er ele c tro n ic s. A ll electro n ics estab lish m en ts, re g a rd le s s of product category, em ploy ad m in is tra tiv e , executive, c le ric a l, and steno graphic w o r k e r s , and m any em ploy en g in eers, sc ie n tists, and technicians for v ario u s functions, m ainly R&D w ork. The relativ e n u m erical im portance of R&D w o rk ers v a rie s considerably with the type of product m ade. P roduction w o rk ers in the typical electro n ics plant include a sse m b le rs who use sm all hand tools, soldering iro n s, light welding devices, d iag ram s, and m odels to put together p a rts, c irc u its, and subassem b lies; te s te rs and in sp ecto rs who check, visually o r with in stru m en ts, the products being m anufactured through ev ery stage of th e ir production; and p ro cessin g , fab ricatin g , and m achining w o rk ers, such as sp ray and dip p a in te rs, oven ten d ers, co il w inders, e le c tro p la te rs, an odizers, silk screen o p e ra to rs, and m achine tool o p e ra to rs. Skilled m aintenance craftsm en a re responsible for the c a re of plant and equipm ent. plants in m ilita ry -sp a c e and in d u stria lco m m ercial e le c tro n ic s--fre q u e n tly locate in m etropolitan a re a s . C ities are m ore likely to a ttra c t the train ed p erso n n el needed in R&D w ork, esp ecially if the c itie s p o ssess u n iv ersity fa c ilitie s for the continued edu cation of profe s sional and tech n ical w orker s . On the other hand, electro n ics e sta b lish m ents which a re p rim a rily engaged in larg e-v o lu m e production o p e ra tio n s--su c h as plants m anufacturing re la tiv e ly stand ard ized c o m p o n e n t s and consum er p ro d u cts--freq u en tly locate in sm all towns o r ru ra l a re a s, w here sem isk illed and un skilled w o rk ers a re g en erally available in larg e nu m b ers. Shipping co sts a re not an esp ecially m ajor co n sid eratio n since p ro d ucts tend to be sm all and light in weight relativ e to th e ir value. Some inform ation on location of e le c tro n ics em ploym ent is available by State from unpublished data co llected by the B ureau of Em ploym ent S ecurity (B ES),U .S. D epartm ent of L abor (tables 1 to 4). These unpublished State data cover electro n ics m anufacturing em ploym ent in only the seven SIC 4 -digit in d u stries engaged p rim a rily in such m anufacturing. In both 1961 and 1958, these seven in d u strie s accounted for about th re e -fo u rth s of the estim ated em ploym ent in the m anufacture of electro n ics p ro d u cts.7 M ore than 3 of ev ery 10 w o rk ers in ele c tro n ics m anufacturing w ere located in the M iddle A tlantic States in Jan u ary 1961 (table 1). M ore than 2 of ev ery 10 w ere located in the P acific S tates, and n early the sam e pro p o rtio n w ere em ployed in the E ast N orth C en tral S tates. New England had the fourth la rg e st group of electro n ics w o rk ers, with 12 p ercen t of the in d u stry to tal. These four m ajor regions together accounted fo r m ore than fo u r-fifth s of the en tire electro n ics w ork force in 1961; the th ree contiguous reg io n s--M id d le A tlantic, E ast N orth C en tral, and New E ngland-accounted for m ore than th re e -fifth s. C alifornia had the la rg e st concentration of electro n ics w o rk ers in both 1961 and LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT IN ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING E lectro n ics estab lish m en ts which a re heavily engaged in R&D w ork and em ploy la rg e num bers of en g in eers, technicians, and highly skilled c ra ftsm e n --su c h as m any 7 Total electronics employment was 777,700 in 1961 and 609,800 in 1958, according to the estimates developed for this report. (See table 13.) The unpublished BES employment data are only approximately comparable with the estimates in table 13, since the latter figures relate to electronics employment only, while the BES figures cover all employment—nonelectronic as well as electronic--in industries primarily electronic. 6 Manufacturing, as used throughout this report, includes research and development work as well as production. 5 1958 (table 1). O ther States with heavy em ploym ent concentrations, listed in de creasin g o rd e r as of 1961, w ere New York, Illinois, New Je rse y , P ennsylvania, M assa ch u setts, and Indiana. These w ere the only S tates with as m uch as 5 p ercen t of to tal electro n ics em ploym ent in eith er 1961 o r 1958. Of these leading S tates, C alifornia had a larg e in c re a se in its sh are of to tal electro n ics em ploym ent betw een 1958 and 1961, while the o th e rs, except P ennsylvania, had d e c re a se s. All industry segments Middle Atlantic (31) Pacific (21) East North Central (20) New England (12) The reg io n al d istrib u tio n of electro n ics w o rk ers v a rie s co n sid erab ly by m ajor in d u stry segm ent. This fact is illu stra te d by the following tabulation based on data from tables 1-4, w hich a rra y s , by m ajor in d u stry segm ent, the four regions with the highest concentrations of electro n ics em ploym ent. The a rra y for each in d u stry segm ent is in descending o rd e r, according to the p ercen t (shown in p aren th eses) of em ploym ent in the in d u stry segm ent in Jan u ary 1961 ac counted fo r by each region. Military and indus trial electronics Pacific (31) Middle Atlantic (27) East North Central (12) New England (l 8) Consumer electronics East North Central (49) Middle Atlantic (31) Pacific (11) New England (3) Electronic components Middle Atlantic (36) New England (21) East North Central (18) Pacific (13) i One other region, the South Atlantic, ranked ahead of New England, with 10 percent of employment in the industry segment. The P acific region, for exam ple, ranked firs t in num ber of m ilita ry and in d u strial e le c tro n ic s w o rk ers but only th ird and fourth in the two o th er in d u stry segm ents shown. The E ast N orth C en tral S tates, on the o th er hand, ranked only th ird in two in d u stry segm ents but accounted for roughly half (49 percent) of a ll em ploym ent in the co n su m er products field; this was the highest pro p o rtio n accounted fo r by any reg io n in any in d u stry segm ent. The New England States ranked low est in two indus try segm ents but second in cbm ponents m anufacturing em ploym ent. size of electro n ics e sta b lish m e n ts.8 As in tab les 1-4, the data do not re la te to all electro n ics m anufacturing em ploym ent, but only to that in the seven SIC 4 -digit indus trie s p rim a rily engaged in such m anufac tu rin g .9 The m ajor conclusion to be draw n from the data is that the m ajo rity of the e le c tro n ic s plants em ploy sm all num bers of w o rk ers and account for little o v erall in d u stry em ploym ent, while a re la tiv e ly few larg e plants account for sizable pro p o rtio n s of in d u stry em ploym ent. N early tw o -th ird s (65 percent) of the 2,527 plants had few er than 50 em ployees each in 1958, and em ployed only 5 p ercen t of the to tal w o rk fo rce. On the other end of the scale, e sta b lish m ents with 250 o r m ore em ployees re p re sented only 13 p ercen t of the 2,527 e stab lish m en ts but accounted for 79 p ercen t of B etw een 1958 and 1961, each of the four m ajo r regions had in c re a se s in the num ber of electro n ics w o rk ers, but the in c re a se s w ere unequal in ra te (table 1). As a re su lt, reg io n al em ploym ent as a pro p o rtio n of national em ploym ent declined in the Middle A tlantic and E ast N orth C en tral S tates, rem ain ed the sam e in New England, and ro se m arkedly in the P acific reg io n --fro m 15 p ercen t to 21 p ercen t. C alifornia a c counted for v irtu ally all electro n ics em ploym ent in the P acific region in both 1961 and 1958. 8In addition to the 2,527 establishments covered in table 5, many other plants making electronic products are classified in SIC industries not primarily engaged in electronics manufac turing—that is, in industries in which electronics shipments represent less than half of the value of total shipments. (See appendix A for a list of most of these industries.) The Electronic Industries Association estimates that more than 5,500 estab lishments were making some electronic products in the United States in late 1961 (Electronic Industries 1962 Yearbook, p. 1). 9 The Census Bureau's figure of 401,400 in table 5 differs from the Labor Department's figure of 458,400 in table 1, even though both represent the sum of employment in the same seven SIC industries, because (1) collection methods and criteria differ between the two series, and (2) the figures in table 5 are aver ages for 1958 while those in table 1 are as of January 1958. EMPLOYMENT SIZE OF ELECTRONICS ESTABLISHMENTS Table 5 p re se n ts data from the 1958 C ensus of M anufactures on the em ploym ent 6 to tal em ploym ent; estab lish m en ts with 2,500 o r m ore em ployees equaled only 1 p ercen t of all estab lish m en ts but accounted for at le a st 22 percen t of to tal em ploym ent.10 On an individual in d u stry b a sis, half o r m ore of the estab lish m en ts in 6 of the 7 in d u strie s had few er than 50 em ployees each, but the p roportion of in d u stry em ploy m ent accounted for by these sm a lle r plants w as in no case g re a te r than 13 p ercen t, and in one case as low as 1.5 p ercen t. On the o th er hand, the p ro p o rtio n of estab lish m en ts w ith 250 or m ore em ployees w as in no case higher than 38 p ercen t and in one case as low as 7 p ercen t, but these la rg e r e sta b lish m en ts accounted for sh ares of in d u stry em ploym ent ranging from 60 to 97 p ercen t. While fig u res for the la rg e st em ploym entsize c la sse s a re not given fo r ev ery in d u stry in table 5, those given g en erally show em ploym ent concentrations in a few v e ry larg e p lan ts. In the consum er field of rad io and TV receiving se ts, for exam ple, 20 estab lish m en ts (9 p ercen t of the total) had 57 p ercen t of total in d u stry em ploy- m ent; in the m ilita ry and in d u stria l field of radio and TV com m unication equipm ent, 31 estab lish m en ts (6 p ercen t of the total) accounted for 66 p ercen t of in d u stry em ploym ent; and in the m anufacture of tra n s m itting electro n tubes, 6 estab lish m en ts (12 p ercen t of the total) had 55 p ercen t of in d u stry em ploym ent. R ates of em ploym ent change betw een 1958 and 1961 in the four m ajo r regions w ere unequal also in te rm s of m ajo r in d u stry segm ents, as indicated in the follow ing tabulation based on data fro m tab les 1 to 4, covering the four regions w ith the la rg e st concentrations of electro n ics em ploym ent. The tabulation show s, for each m ajor region and in d u stry segm ent, the change which o c c u rre d betw een 1958 and 1961 in the pro p o rtio n which w o rk ers in the region re p re se n te d of to tal national em ploym ent in the in d u stry segm ent. C hanges a re shown in te rm s of the num ber of p e r cent points gained o r lo st in th ese p ro p o rtio n s. All Military and industry industrial Consumer Electronic Major region segments electronics electronics components Middle +0.5 Atlantic 1-7.6 -2.3 46.0 -.8 Pacific +3.0 46.8 East North Central -3.8 +2.4 +7.4 -5.1 New England 0 -2.9 + .6 +1.0 lThis relatively sharp drop was due to a marked employment decline in New Jersey. 1 CO io Exact employment in plants with 2,500 or more employees is not ascertainable from table 5 because of data withheld for SIC industries 3671 and 3673, to avoid disclosing figures for indi vidual companies. Maximum and minimum employment for this category of establishments, however, may be determined in these two SIC industries. With the help of these maximums and minimums, it may be concluded that, for the 7 industries of table 5 combined, employment in plants with 2,500 or more employees equaled between 22 and 26 percent of total employ ment. 7 Table 1. Employment in electronics manufacturing,1 by region and State January 1958 and January 1961 January 1958 Region1 2 and State3 All employees....... ••••• Middle Atlantic................ New York................. New Jersey.................. Pennsylvania................. Pacific....................... California................... Other....... ................ East North Central.............. Illinois.................... Indiana..... ................ Wisconsin.................... Ohio........................ Michigan.................... New England................... Massachusetts................ Connecticut................. New Hampshire................ Other....................... South Atlantic................ North Carolina............... Maryland.................... Florida..................... Other....................... West North Central............. Iowa........................ Minnesota................... Other.......... ............. West South Central............. Texas....................... Other....................... East South Central............. Kentucky.................. . • Other....................... Mountain..... ................. Arizona..................... Other........ •••••........ . January 1961 Number Percent 458,405 100.0 616,860 100.0 158,328 61,527 56,013 40,788 69,849 68,914 935 107,544 58,008 28,888 3,432 12,000 5,216 55,312 43,883 6,110 4,133 1,186 28,402 13,744 8,355 3,972 2,331 12,226 7,507 2,156 2,563 7,793 6,764 1,029 11,035 4,936 6,099 7,916 7,219 697 34.5 13.4 12.2 8.9 15.2 15.0 .2 23.5 12.7 6.3 .7 2.6 1.1 12.1 9.6 1.3 .9 .3 6.2 3.0 1.8 .9 .5 2.7 1.6 .5 .6 1.7 1.5 .2 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 .2 192,193 75,625 58,797 57,771 130,552 129,090 1,462 121,703 60,757 31,233 13,772 11,052 4,889 74,591 50,986 10,148 6,782 6,675 40,636 16,151 9,843 9,789 4,853 22,553 11,125 6,098 5,330 16,880 15,821 1,059 11,937 4,403 7,534 5,815 4,720 1,095 31.2 12.3 9.5 9.4 21.2 20.9 .2 19.7 9.8 5.1 2.2 1.8 .8 12.1 8.3 1.6 1.1 1.1 6.6 2.6 1.6 1.6 .8 3.7 1.8 1.0 .9 2.7 2.6 .2 1.9 .7 1.2 .9 .8 .2 Number Percent 1 Data in this table cover the seven 4-digit industries, 1957 SIC code, each with at least $25 million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments repre senting half or more of the value of total shipments. These industries are SIC 3651 (Radio and television receiving sets, except communication types), 3652 (Phonograph records), 3662 (Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detection equipment and appara tus), 3671 (Radio and television receiving type electron tubes, except cathode ray), 3672 (Cathode ray picture tubes), 3673 (Transmitting, industrial, and special purpose electron tubes), and 3679 (Electronic components and accessories, not elsewhere classified). 2 States in each region are as follows: Middle Atlantic— New Jersey, New York, Pennsyl vania; Pacific— Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington; East North Central— Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin; New England— Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont; South Atlantic— Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia; West North Central— Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota; West South Central— Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas; East South Central— Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee; and Mountain— Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming. 3 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January 1961, at least 1.0 percent of total employment in the seven 4-digit industries covered by the table. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security. 8 Table 2. Employment in military-space and industrial-commercial electronics manufacturing,1 b y region and State, January 1958 and January 1961 January 1958 January 1961 Region and State1 2 Number All employees............. Pacific.................... . • • •. California.................... Other.................. ....... Middle Atlantic................. New York...................... New Jersey.................... Pennsylvania.... ............. East North Central.............. Illinois...................... Wisconsin..................... Ohio........................... Indiana................... . •• • Other......................... South Atlantic.................. North Carolina................ Maryland...................... Florida....................... Other...... . •. • ............. . New England....... ............. Massachusetts................. Connecticut................... Other....................... . • West North Central.............. Iowa............... ...... ..... Minnesota..................... Other......................... West South Central.............. Texas......................... Other......................... East South Central..... ........ Tennessee.............. ....... Other..... ........ ........... Mountain........................ Arizona....................... Other......................... Percent Number Percent 153,590 100.0 293,197 100.0 <48,211 47,493 718 41,284 24,430 12,226 4,628 14,193 10,455 802 1,979 158 799 20,561 11,450 7,924 1,033 154 17,508 14,096 2,148 1,264 2,566 467 1,128 971 4,105 4,064 41 167 85 82 4,995 4,877 118 31.4 30.9 .5 26.9 15.9 8.0 3.0 9.2 6.8 .5 1.3 .1 .5 13.4 7.5 5.2 .7 .1 11.4 9.2 1.4 .8 1.7 89,856 88,858 998 80,349 36,472 28,286 15,591 34,153 13,588 10,730 4,763 4,205 867 30,713 13,552 9,166 6,617 1,378 24,998 16,428 3,395 5,175 15,181 9,376 4,541 1,264 14,367 14,130 237 3,166 3,093 73 414 70 344 30.6 30.3 .3 27.4 12.4 9.6 5.3 11.6 4.6 3.7 1.6 1.4 .3 10.5 4.6 3.1 2.3 .5 8.5 5.6 1.2 1.8 5.2 3.2 1.5 .4 4.9 4.8 .1 1.1 1.1 (3 ) .i (3 ) .i .3 .7 .6 2.7 2.6 (3 ) .1 .1 .1 3.3 3.2 .1 1 Data in this table cover t h e 4-digit military-space and industrial-commercial elec tronics industry, 1957 SIC code, with at least $25 million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total ship ments. This industry is SIC 3662: Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detec tion equipment and apparatus. This industry is identified in the 1957 SIC code, as a m e n d e d by the 1958 supplement, as follows: "Establishments primarily engaged in manufac turing (1) radio and television broadcasting equipment; (2) electric communication equip ment and parts, except telephone and telegraph; (3) electronic field detection apparatus, light and heat emission operating apparatus, object detection apparatus and navigational electronic equipment, infrared object detection equipment, and aircraft and missile con trol systems; and (4) other electric and electronic communication and signaling products, not elsewhere classified.” 2 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January 1961, at least 1.0 percent of total employment in SIC 3662. 3 Less than .05 percent. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security. 9 Table 3. Employment in consumer electronics manufacturing,1 by region and State, January 1958 and January 1961 January 1961 January 1958 Region and State2 Number Percent Number Percent All employees............. 127,185 100.0 97,186 100.0 East North Central............. Illinois..................... Indiana...................... Michigan..................... Ohio......................... Other....... ................. Middle Atlantic ••••.......•••••• New York..................... Pennsylvania............. . New Jersey................... Pacific........................ New England.................... East South Central.... . Tennessee.................... Other............... ......... West North Central............. West South Central............. Other regions (South Atlantic and Mountain)................ 52,950 27,963 16,490 3,002 5,278 217 48,693 17,132 9,345 22,216 10,089 2,963 2,327 1,987 340 7,211 2,292 41.6 22.0 13.0 2.4 4.1 .2 38.3 13.5 7.4 17.5 7.9 2.3 1.8 1.6 .3 5.7 1.8 47,662 26,814 16,410 2,293 1,913 232 29,854 15,585 7,925 6,344 10,561 2,843 2,317 1,693 624 2,167 809 49.0 27.6 16.9 2.4 2.0 .2 30.7 16.0 8.2 6.5 10.9 2.9 2.4 1.7 .6 2.2 .8 660 .5 973 1.0 1 Data in this table cover the two -4-digit consumer electronics industries, 1957 SIC code, each with at least $25 million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with elec tronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments. These in dustries are SIC 3651 (Radio and television receiving sets, except communication types) and 3652 (Phonograph records). 2 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January 1961, at least 1.0 percent of total employment in the two 4-digit industries covered by the table, except that individual listing of some States was withheld to avoid disclosure of confidential data. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employ ment Security. 10 Table 4. Employment in electronic components manufacturing,1 by region and State, January 1958 and January 1961 January 1958 January 1961 Region and State1 2 All employees............ Middle Atlantic................ Pennsylvania................. New Jersey................... New York............. ........ New England.................... Massachusetts................ Connecticut.................. New Hampshire................ Other........................ East North Central............. Illinois..................... Indiana...................... Ohio......................... Wisconsin.......... ........ Other........................ Pacific............. ........... South Atlantic................ . Florida.......... ............ North Carolina............... Other........................ East South Central............. Mountain............ ........... Arizona...................... Other......................... West North Central............. West South Central............. Number Percent Number Percent 177,630 100.0 226,477 100.0 38.5 15.1 12.1 11.2 19.6 16.0 1.4 1.7 .5 22.7 11.0 6.9 2.7 1.4 .8 6.5 4.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 4.8 1.6 1.3 .3 1.4 .8 68,351 26,815 21,571 19,965 34,841 28,483 2,434 3,045 879 40,401 19,590 12,240 4,743 2,413 1,415 11,549 7,191 2,939 2,250 2,002 8,541 2,911 2,332 579 2,449 1,396 81,990 34,255 24,167 23,568 46,750 33,338 5,322 4,386 3,704 39,888 20,355 10,618 4,376 2,810 1,729 30,135 8,953 2,921 2,393 3,639 6,454 5,398 4,647 751 5,205 1,704 36.2 15.1 10.7 10.4 20.6 14.7 2.3 1.9 1.6 17.6 9.0 4.7 1.9 1.2 .8 13.3 4.0 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.8 2.4 2.1 .3 2.3 .8 1 Data in this table cover the four 4-digit components industries, 1957 SIC code, each with at least $25. million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments. These industries are SIC 3671 (Radio and television receiving type electron tubes, except cathode ray), 3672 (Cathode ray picture tubes), 3673 (Transmitting, industrial, and special purpose electron tubes), and 3679 (Electronic components and accessories, not elsewhere classified). 2 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January 1961, at least 1.0 percent of total employment in the four 4-digit industries covered by the table, except that individual listing of some States was withheld to avoid disclosure of confidential data. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employ ment Security. 11 Table 5. Employment size of establishments in electronics manufacturing, by SIC industry, 19581 Establishments with an average of— SIC number SIC industry Totals: Establishments: Number............. ............... Percent of total.................. Employees: Number............................. Percent of total.................. 3651 3652 3662 3671 Radio and TV receiving sets: Establishments: Number............................. Percent of total................. . Employees: Number............................. Percent of total.................. Phonograph records: Establishments: Number............................. Percent of total.................. Employees: Number............................. Percent of total.................. Radio and TV communication equipment: Establishments: Number............................. Percent of total.................. Employees: Number............................. Percent of total.................. Electron tubes, receiving type: Establishments: Number............................. Percent of total.................. Employees: Number..................... ....... Percent of total............ ...... See footnotes a t end of table All establish ments 1-49 employees 50-249 employees 250-999 1,000-2,499 employees employees 234 9.3 75 3.0 * 2,500 employees or more 2,527 100.0 1,635 64.7 560 22.2 401,351 100.0 21,110 5.3 62,579 15.6 234 100.0 117 50.0 59 25.2 38 16.2 17 7.3 3 1.3 66,505 100.0 1,529 2.3 7,199 10.8 19,662 29.6 25,709 38.7 12,406 18.7 94 100.0 67 71.3 20 21.3 5 5.3 2 2.1 7,421 100.0 991 13.4 1,937 26.1 4,493 60.5 512 100.0 327 63.9 100 19.5 54 10.6 18 3.5 13 2.5 129,515 100.0 3,904 3.0 12,307 9.5 27,252 21.0 30,652 23.7 55,400 42.8 85 100.0 54 63.5 4 6 7.1 9 10.6 14 16.5 2 2.4 36,968 100.0 567 1.5 421 1.1 35,980 97..3 (2) (2) 0 (2) (3) (3 ) 23 0.9 (*) (2) 0 0 0 0 (3 ) Table 5. SIC number 3672 3673 3679 Employment size of establishments in electronics manufacturing, by SIC industry, 19581— Continued SIC industry Cathode ray picture tubes: Establishments: Number........................... Percent of total....... .......... Employees: Number......... .................. Percent of total................. Electron tubes, transmitting: Establishments: Number ••••••••••••••............. Percent of total................. Employees: Number........................... Percent of total................. Electronic components, n.e.c. Establishments: Number........................... Percent of total................. Employees: Number........................... Percent of total................. All establish ments Establishments with an average of— 1-49 employees 50-249 employees 250-999 employees 1,000-2,499 employees 2,500 employees or more 75 100.0 56 74.7 11 14.7 5 6.7 8,554 100.0 706 8.3 897 10.5 6,951 81.3 48 100.0 16 33.3 14 29.2 12 25.0 4 8.3 20,146 100.0 466 2.3 1,600 7.9 6,931 34.4 11,149 55.3 1,479 100.0 998 67.5 350 23.7 111 7.5 17 1.1 3 .2 132,242 100.0 12,947 9.8 38,218 28.9 48,381 36.6 23,872 18.0 8,824 6.7 3 4.0 (3 ) 0 0 0 0 2 4.2 (3 ) 1 Data in this table cover the seven 4— digit industries, 1957 SIC code, each with at least $25 million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments, 2 Not available. 3 Data which cannot be shown separately have been combined with figures in the next lower size class or classes. Com bined figures are underlined. 4 All establishments in this group reported an average of 50-99 employees. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958, MC 58(2)-36D, table 4. CHAPTER 2. HISTORICAL GROWTH OF ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING w ar brought about m any technological ad vances in electro n ics application. E le c tronic testing and m easuring devices w ere developed, and im provem ents w ere m ade in radio navigation and a ir flight control equipm ent. The digital com puter w as de veloped, to m eet the need for high-speed data p ro cessin g in advanced scientific w ork and for autom atic fire and flight co n tro ls. Although the electro n ics in d u stry as we know it today is relativ ely new, w ork was being done in electro n ics before the sta rt of this century. In 1894, O liver Lodge developed a system of w ire le ss com m u nication in England. D uring the next few y e a rs, considerable p ro g re ss w as m ade in w ire le ss telegraphy by G uglielm o M arconi, E rn e st R utherford, F . K. V reeland, R. A. F essen d en , and Lee De F o re st, among o th e rs. The invention of the th ree-elem en t vacuum tube by De F o re st in 1906 m ade possible both the developm ent of the radio broadcasting in d u stry and the p ra c tic a l application of telev isio n . Betw een 1910 and 1920 rapid p ro g re ss was m ade in the theory, application, and co n stru ctio n of vacuum tubes and th e ir c irc u its, and E. H. A rm strong began his w ork in frequency m odu latio n (FM ). D uring W orld W ar I, g ro u n d -to -a irc raft radio com m unication was introduced. A fter that w ar, radio broadcasting stations began op eratio n s in all p a rts of the country. By 1939, electro n ics production had grow n in value to $340 m illion, the num ber of radios produced equaled 10.8 m illion,11 and em ploym ent in w hat was then known as the rad io s, radio tubes, and phonographs in d u stry had rise n to 56,000.12 C rude telev isio n p ictu res in color w ere d em o n strated as e a rly as 1930. B lack and w hite telev isio n b ro ad casts began in 1936. D uring W orld W ar II, re s e a rc h in te le v i sion tran sm ittin g and receiving continued because of potential m ilita ry applications, and resu ltin g im provem ents led to w ide sp read consum er acceptance of television. M ilitary equipm ent* including new p ro d u cts such as ra d a r, sonar, and the proxim ity fuse, dom inated electro n ics production d u r ing W orld W ar II. R esearch during that The c essatio n of h o stilitie s caused a sharp decline in em ploym ent in electro n ics m anufacturing, from its w artim e peak of 380,000 w o rk ers in 1944,13*15 but the postw ar advent of la rg e -s c a le telev isio n production resu lted in another upw ard tre n d in em ploym ent. Betw een 1947 and 1950, the p ro duction of telev isio n sets ro se from 178,600 units, with a shipm ent value of $50 m illion, to 7.5 m illion units, with a shipm ent value of $1.35 billion, and electro n ics em ploym ent ro se n early o n e-fifth .u Betw een 1950 and 1961 electro n ics m anu facturing em ploym ent m ore than trip led , equaling an estim ated 778,000 w o rk ers in the la tte r y e a r.15 The ex trem e rap id ity of this expansion is evident when com pared with a grow th of only 7 p ercen t over the sam e period for all U.S. m anufacturing em ploym ent.16* B etw een 1950 and 1961, e lectro n ics ship m ents expanded m ore than fourfold, from 13Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing (BLS Bul letin 1072, 1952), p. 10. MFrom 206,000 workers in 1947, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures: 1947, Vol. II, table 1, p. 739, to 244,000 workers in 1950, according to “ Expansion in Electronics Employment,” Monthly Labor Review, February 1952, p. 151. Both employment figures cover all workers in the radios and related products and the electron tubes industries, as defined in the 1945 edition of the Standard Industrial Classifica tion Manual (U.S. Executive Office of the President). It is be lieved that these two industries included nearly all workers engaged in electronics manufacturing in 1947 and 1950. 15Employment estimate for 1950 appears in footnote 14, estimate for 1961 appears in table 13. 16U.S. manufacturing employment averaged 15,241,000 workers in 1950 and 16,267,000 workers in 1961. Data for 1950 from Employment and Earnings Statistics for the United States, 190960 (BLS Bulletin 1312,1961), p. 29; data for 1961 from Employ ment and Earnings, June 1962, p. 92. liProduction and shipments data in this report, unless other wise indicated, are estimates of the Electronic Industries Asso ciation (EIA) or are based on EIA estimates. Some of the EIA data used were subsequently slightly revised by that organiza tion, but too late for incorporation here. u U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1939, Vol. II, Pt. 2, table 2, U.S. Bureau of the Census, p. 388. 14 $2.6 billion to $10.69 billion (table 6 ).17 This rapid grow th in shipm ents can be attrib u ted m ainly to the widening v a rie ty of electronic products which have resu lted la rg e ly from a steadily growing effort in R&D w ork by both G overnm ent and p riv ate in d u stry . The com puter and the tra n s is to r (d iscu ssed la te r in this chapter) a re m ajor exam ples of the m any innovations due to R&D w ork. One m ajor reaso n for the grow th of ex penditures for m ilita ry electro n ics is the shift in defense expenditures from a irc ra ft to m issile s; electro n ic equipm ent accounts for a sm aller pro p o rtio n of the cost of a irc ra ft than of m issile s. Betw een the fisc a l y ears 1954 and 1961, expenditures for the p ro cu rem en t of m issile s ro se from $417 m illion to $2.97 billion while expenditures for a irc ra ft p ro cu rem en t declined from $9.08 billion to $5.9 billion (table 7). E xpenditures for electro n ics R&D have been risin g in recen t y e a rs, but sta tistic s on these expenditures a re frag m en tary . Funds for R&D in the e le c tric a l equipm ent and com m unication in d u stries ro se about 60 p ercen t betw een 1956 and I960, from $1.5 billion to $2.4 billion.18 A larg e p o r tion of electro n ics R&D is financed by the F e d e ra l G overnm ent. This portion was "approxim ately 85 percen t of the w hole" in 1959, according to one e stim a te .19 A nother m ajor reaso n for grow th in m ilitary electro n ics expenditures is the rapid expansion of m ilita ry re se a rc h , de velopm ent, te st, and evaluation (RDT& E)-from $2.19 billion in fisc a l 1954 to $6.13 billion in fisc a l 1961 (table 7). E xpenditures for electro n ics have been taking an in c re a s ing sh are of these RDT&E funds, as the D epartm ent of D efense develops m ore com plex w eaponry and in c re a se s the portion of its developm ent effort for sp acecraft. E xpenditures by the N ational A eronautics TRENDS IN MAJOR PRODUCT and Space A dm inistration have rise n sharply CATEGORIES, 1950-61 since the agency was estab lish ed . F ro m fiscal 1958 to fisc a l 1961 they ro se m ore Military and Space Products. V irtually the than eig h tfo ld --fro m $89 m illion to $744 only p u rc h a se r of m ilita ry and space e le c m illion. They a re estim ated at $1.29 billion tro n ic products is the F e d e ra l G overnm ent. for fisc a l 1962 and $2.25 billion for fisc a l The D epartm ent of D efense is the la rg e st 1963.20* An estim ated one-fourth of these F e d e ra l cu sto m er, and was v irtu ally the expenditures are d isb u rsed to m anufacturing only one before the N ational A eronautics estab lish m en ts for electro n ic product r e and Space A dm inistration (NASA) was e sta b search , developm ent, and p ro cu rem en t. lish ed in 1958. Since then, the D epartm ent of D efense has been purchasing m ore than Industrial and Commercial Products, in 90 percen t of the m ilita ry and space ship d u strial and co m m ercial electro n ics ship m ents shown in table 6. m ents ro se rapidly betw een 1950 and 1961, from $350 m illion to $2.2 billion (table 6). The grow th ra te for this product category Shipm ents of m ilita ry and space products exceeded that for the electro n ics in d u stry ro se from a value of $500 m illion in 1950 as a whole; u stria l and co m m ercial to $5.49 billion in 1961--a n elevenfold in- shipm ents ro sein dfrom 14 p ercen t of to tal c r e a s e . These shipm ents jum ped from electro n ics shipm ents in to 21 p ercen t about one-fifth of to tal electro n ics shipr in 1961. E xpansion of th is 1950 product category m ents in 1950 to about one-half during the has been esp ecially rapid since 1956. y ears of the K orean conflict and have r e 8 shows d etailed data for the y ears Table since m ained at the la tte r lev el since then. 1956 for v ario u s types of in d u stria l and 17 Shipment values are not available by major product category co m m ercial equipm ent. for years prior to 1950. Shipment values in table 6, and every where else in this report unless otherwise stated, are in current Expanding applications for com puting, dollars. Shipments shown in table 6 are reproduced in appendix A, data p ro cessin g , and in d u stria l control table A -l, in constant 1960 dollars as well as current dollars. i* National Science Foundation, Review of Data on Research equipm ent re p re se n t the p rin cip al reaso n for this rapid recen t expansion. Betw een and Development, No. 30, NSF 61-51, September 1961, p. 5. 19Coordination of Information on Current Federal Research and Development Projects in the Field of Electronics, prepared for the Senate Committee on Government Operations and its Subcommittee on Reorganization and International Organiza tions, 87th Cong., 1st sess., 1961, p. 130. 20The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year Ending June 30, 1963 (1962), p. 110 for fiscal 1958 figure and p. 246 for figures for other years. NASA expenditures in con stant 1960 dollars are shown in appendix A, table A-2. 15 1956 and 1961, shipm ents of com puters and in d u strial co n tro ls ro se from $240 m illion to $980 m illion, and from 25 p e r cent to 45 p ercen t of to tal in d u strialco m m ercial electro n ics shipm ents (table 8). The firs t g en eral-p u rp o se electro n ic com puter designed fo r b u sin ess data p ro c essing and scientific use (Univac I) was produced around 1948. By I960, com puters in use in this country w ere estim ated to num ber betw een 3,600 and 4,40021 ; by the close of 1961, m ore than 8,800 com puters had been in s ta lle d .22 C om puters have found application in r e se a rc h la b o ra to rie s, business offices, and in d u stria l production. The firs t com puter designed for on-line in d u strial use was applied to a petroleum re fin e ry operation in 1958. C om puters have since been in stalled to control m any additional types of production o p eratio n s, such as those in chem ical plants, e le c tric pow er stations, and steel rolling m ills. C om puter re s e a rc h also contributed to the developm ent of specialized electro n ic devices used to control m etalw orking op e ra tio n s. M achines equipped with these devices operate autom atically, taking th e ir in stru ctio n s from p erfo rated tape, m ag netic tape, o r o ther m edia. N um erical co n tro l has been applied to d rilling, boring, m illing, turning, shaping, punching, flam e cutting, welding, grinding, and tube bend ing op eratio n s. M ore than 1,500 n u m e ri cally controlled m achine tools w ere sold by m id- 1961.2829 T esting and m easuring equipm ent is another type of in d u strial electro n ic p ro d uct which has found expanded applications in recen t y e a rs. Shipm ents of such equip m ent ro se from $170 m illion in 1956 to $290 m illion in 1961 (table 8). E xam ples of new er kinds of testin g and m easuring equipm ent include tra n sisto riz e d scale sy stem s; electro n ic ca lip e rs; X -ra y gages, such as those used in steel plants to control the thickness of sheet steel; tube and e le c tro n ic c irc u itry testin g equipm ent; cathodera y o scilloscopes; and audio o sc illa to rs. Shipm ents of landm obile, m icrow ave, and broadcasting equipm ent in c re a se d betw een 1956 and 1961, from $120 m illion to $215 m illion (table 8). C ontributing to this in c re a se has been the grow ing dem and for tw o-w ay radio equipm ent designed for use in autom obiles, boats, and o ther m obile in stallatio n s, for m icrow ave re la y equip m ent, and for co m m ercial radio and te le vision broadcasting equipm ent. M icrow ave re la y is a relativ ely new system of com m unication involving the tra n sm issio n of ultrahigh freq u en cies (UHF) along a se rie s of sh o rt-ra n g e radio re p e a te r statio n s. Many types of m ultiestab lish m en t e n te r p ris e s , including m anufacturing firm s, public u tilitie s, in su ran ce com panies, and banks, use m icrow ave equipm ent to feed data into com puters from d iv erse lo c a tions. C om m ercial radio and telev isio n stations on the a ir in creased by 28 p ercen t betw een 1956 and 1961, from 3,922 to 5,034, and the num ber of educational telev isio n stations on the a ir ro se from 20 to 5 4 .24 S tereo -F M radio broadcasting began in 1961, and, by D ecem ber of that y ear, m ore than 30 stations w ere on the a i r . 25 Betw een 1956 and 1961 the shipm ent value of "O ther in d u stria l and co m m ercial p ro d u cts" ro se by 70 percen t, from $420 m il lion to $715 m illion (table 8). This grow th re fle c ts in c re a se s in the num ber of civil a irc ra ft,26 the growing use of electro n ic navigational aids on p assen g er ships and m erchant v e sse ls, expansion of the atom ic energy fie ld ,27 and an expanding m ark et for m edical and therapeutic electro n ic equipm ent.2829 u 27th Annual Report, Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 1961 (Federal Communications Commission), pp. 59-60. 25 Electronic News, Fairchild Publications, Inc., New York, Nov. 27,1961, p. 28. 26 Among the electronic items used for civil aircraft are com munication equipment and navigational aids such as air and ground traffic control equipment, altimeters, autopilots, radio direction finders, and flight control equipment. 27Examples of electronic devices for nuclear work include dosimeters, geiger counters, reactor sensing controls, radia tion detection devices, and particle accelerators. *®Including such items as X-ray equipment, cardiographs, diathermy equipment, ultraviolet microscopes, and ultrasonic drilling equipment used by dentists. 29Additional example of “ other industrial and commercial products’* include commercial sound equipment (coin-operated phonographs, public address systems, intercommunications sys tems, and theater sound equipment); cryptographic devices, and other communication equipment; automotive equipment, such as headlight dimmers and speed controls; geophysical exploration equipment; meteorological equipment, such as radiosondes and wind-speed indicators; radio astronomy equipment; lie detec tors; photoelectric equipment; and electronic drafting equipment. a Frank Leary, “ New Developments in Computers,“ Elec tronics, McGraw-Hill, New York, Aug. 26,1960, p. 30. 22 “ Computers Census as of December 1961,“ Business Auto mation, O. A. Business Publications, Inc.,Elmhurst, 111., January 1962, p. 39. 2* American Machinist/Metalworking Manufacturing, McGrawHill, New York, Nov. 27, 1961, p. 89. ‘ 16 Consumer Products. The value of consum er p rin cip ally tra n s is to rs , diodes, and re c ti electro n ics shipm ents in creased from $1.5 fie rs; and other com ponents, such as cap ac billion in 1950 to $2.05 billion in 1961 ito rs, re s is to rs , tra n sfo rm e rs, re la y s, (table 6). This rep resen ted a considerably connectors, s w i t c h e s , prin ted c irc u it low er rate of grow th than the average for b o ard s, sp eak ers, tu n e rs, and antennas. the electro n ics in d u stry as a whole. Con su m er products fell from the position of Com ponents a re used in o rig in al m ili la rg e st electro n ics product categ o ry in tary , in d u strial, o r consum er electro n ic 1950, with 58 p ercen t of total electro n ics equipm ent o r as rep lacem en ts to m aintain shipm ents, to th ird la rg e st categ o ry in and re p a ir such equipm ent. The m ajo rity 1961--follow ing both m ilita ry and indus of com ponents--about 70 p ercen t of ship tr ia l e le c tro n ic s--w ith 19 percen t of to tal m ents value in 1960 and 1961- - a r e used in e lectro n ics shipm ents. o rig in al equipm ent and the re s t as re p la c e m ent p a rts (table 11). M ajor consum er item s are m onochrom e ents of electro n ic com ponents in (black and white) telev isio n sets, which c reShipm a se d $1.16 billion in 1950 to $3.27 accounted for about 40 p ercen t of consum er billion in from (tables 11 and 12). Shipm ents electro n ics shipm ents in 1961; phonographs of tra n s is1961 to rs , and re c tifie rs ex and rad io s, each accounting for roughly 15 panded esp eciallydiodes, rapidly the 1950* s. p ercen t of 1961 consum er electro n ics ship Betw een 1954--the e a rlie sduring t year for which m ents; and phonograph re c o rd s, accounting shipm ents data fo r these products are av ail for approxim ately 12 p ercen t of 1961 con a b le--an d 1961, tra n s is to r shipm ents su m er electro n ics shipm ents. T rends b e c re a se d from $5.1 m illion to $299.5 minil tw een 1950 and 1961 in telev isio n and radio lion, and diode and re c tifie r shipm ents production a re indicated in table 9, and in from $20.0 m illion to $200.0 m illion (table phonograph and p honograph-record sales 12). Much of th is in c re a se has been at the in table 10. expense of receiving tubes, since sem i p erfo rm m any of the functions Some of the new er consum er products pconductors erfo rm ed by Shipm ents of receiving include color telev isio n re c e iv e rs, tape tubes have ris etubes. n relativ little since 1954. re c o rd e rs , high fidelity and stereophonic In 1960 and 1961,tra n s isely to r shipm ents alone sound equipm ent, electro n ic organs, hom e w ere n e a rly as larg e as those of receiving intercom m unication sy stem s, autom atic tube s . g arag e-d o o r openers, electronic ovens, m in iatu rized hearing aids, and Citizen* sThe tra n s is to r, invented in 1948, is a Band radio equipm ent for consum er u se. nsolid device30 which can p erfo rm C olor telev isio n accounted for only a sm all m any ofstate" the functions of an electro n tube, segm ent of the to tal telev isio n m ark et such as rectificatio n , am plification, o sc il during the 1950* s. S everal m ajor p ro d u cers lation, sw itching, and pulse generation. have recen tly begun m anufacturing color The advantages of tra n s is to rs over c e rta in se ts, and consum er acceptance of the types of electro n tu b e s--sm a ll size, low product is expected to grow w ith a w ider pow er req u irem en ts, low heat dissipation, v a rie ty of m odels to choose from , im p ro v e long life, and ru g g e d n e ss--le d to th e ir use m ents in quality of sets, and in creased the 1950*s w here these qualities co lo r program ing. Sales of color telev isio n wduring ere esp ecially im portant. T ra n sisto rs sets m ore than doubled betw een 1961 and found idespread application not only in 1962, totaling over 400,000 in the la tte r m ilita ryw -sp a c e and in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial y ear. equipm ent but also in m any consum er Electronic Components. E lectronic com products, such as hearing aids, portable ponents co n sist of receiving tubes, TV rad io s, and telev isio n re c e iv e rs. p ictu re tubes, pow er tubes, and specialso The operation of transistors and other semiconductors de purpose tubes such as those used in u ltra - pends on the structure and characteristics of solids, whereas high frequency equipm ent; sem iconductors, electron tubes enclose a vacuum or gas. 17 Table 6. Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, 1950-62 Year All electronics shipments Military and space products1 Industrial and commercial products Consumer products2 Replacement parts Value (millions) 1950......... 1951......... 1952......... 1953......... 1954......... 1955......... 1956......... 1957......... 1958......... 1959......... 1960......... 1961......... 19623 ........ $2,600 3,250 4,250 5,150 5,400 5,800 6,850 8,000 8,260 9,240 9,950 10,690 11,820 $500 1,050 2,050 2,650 2,700 2,800 3,450 4,100 4,420 4,740 5,100 5,490 6,220 $350 450 500 600 650 750 950 1,300 1,380 1,600 1,850 2,200 2,500 $1,500 1,400 1,300 1,400 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,600 2,000 2,100 2,050 2,100 $250 350 400 500 650 750 850 900 860 900 900 950 1,000 Percent of total electronics shipments 1950......... 1951......... 1952......... 1953......... 1954......... 1955.... ..... 1956......... 1957......... 1958......... 1959......... 1960......... 1961......... 19623 ........ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 13.5 13.8 11.8 11.7 12.0 12.9 13.9 16.3 16.7 17.3 18.6 20.6 21.2 19.2 32.3 48.2 51.5 50.0 48.3 50.4 51.3 53.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 52.6 57.7 43.1 30.6 27.2 25.9 25.9 23.4 21.3 19.4 21.6 21.1 19.2 17.8 9.6 10.8 9.4 9.7 12.0 12.9 12.4 11.3 10.4 9.7 9.0 8.9 8.5 1 Consists of expenditures for (1) military electronics research, development, and pro curement (exclusive of maintenance work and services), except that most research and devel opment expenditures are excluded for the years before 1961, and (2) space electronics re search, development, and procurement. 2 Includes phonograph records. Excludes color television sets. 3 Estimated. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association, except that ship ments of military and space products include an addition estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for space electronics expenditures by the National Aeronautics and Space Ad ministration, beginning with 1958 when the civilian space agency was established. 18 Table 7. Department of Defense expenditures for military functions,1 fiscal years, 1954-63 [ In millions ] Fiscal year ending June 30 Function 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 19621 2 19632 Total3........................... $40,336 $35,532 $35,791 $38,439 $39,062 $41,233 $41,215 $43,227 $46,710 $47,950 Military personnel......... •••••....... Operations and maintenance............. Procurement............................ Aircraft. ••••••••...... ............. Missiles. •................. .......... Ships........................... ••••• Ordnance, vehicles, and related equip ment ......... .................... Electronics and communications........ Other equipment........... ........... Research, development, test, and evaluation....... ......... ............... Military construction........ ........... Revolving and management funds.......... Adjustment to budget basis........... . $11,643 9,162 15,957 9,080 417 905 $11,403 $11,582 8,400 7,931 12,838 12,227 7,835 8,804 604 1,005 858 944 $11,409 9,487 13,488 8,647 1,855 842 $11,611 9,761 14,083 8,793 2,434 1,105 $11,801 $11,738 10,378 10,223 14,409 13,334 7,730 6,272 3,337 3,027 1,491 1,744 $12,085 10,611 13,095 5,898 2,972 1,801 $13,250 $13,415 11,595 11,511 14,836 15,356 6,449 5,568 3,899 3,523 2,049 2,308 3,334 700 1,521 1,191 441 854 1,260 660 608 674 704 767 365 663 723 399 720 730 443 1,093 755 675 1,042 706 1,135 1,196 484 1,717 1,208 656 2,187 1,744 -210 -148 2,261 1,715 -610 -6 2,101 2,079 -685 86 2,406 1,968 -320 - 2,504 1,753 -651 - 2,866 1,948 -169 - 4,710 1,626 -416 - 6,131 1,605 -300 - 6,039 1,250 -260 - 6,650 1,189 -171 - 1 Excludes military assistance, atomic energy work, civil defense, and defense-related services. 2 Estimated. 3 Totals are shown in constant 1960 dollars in appendix A, table A-2. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Fiscal Analysis Division (FAD) 397-FY 1963 (l), Jan. 18, 1962. Table 8. Value of industrial and commercial electronics shipments, 1956-61 [ In millions ] Type of equipment All shipments................... Computing, data processing, and industrial control equipment1 ............ Testing and measuring equipment........ Landmobile, microwave, and broadcasting equipment........................... Other industrial and commercial products 1 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 $950 $1,300 $1,380 $1,600 $1,850 $2,200 $240 170 $415 210 $450 220 $525 245 $710 265 $980 290 120 420 150 525 155 555 175 655 190 685 215 715 Includes estimated value of leased, as well as sold, electronic equipment. Source: Data for 1960 and 1961 from Electronic Industries Association. Data for 1956 to 1959 from the Association's Electronic Industry 1960 Fact Book, Washington, D.C., p. 23. Table 9. Quantity and value of television and radio production, by type of unit, 1950-61 [Quantity and total value, in thousands] Television production1 Quantity Year Total production 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 7,463.8 5,384.8 6,096.3 7,215.8 7,346.7 7,756.5 7,387.0 6,399.3 4,920.4 6,349.4 5,708.3 6,177.8 Tableportable 2,941.6 2,275.9 2,837.5 3,224.7 4,249.3 4,439.7 4,753.8 3,845.8 2,716.9 3,612.6 3,274.3 3,812.2 Value Phonographcombination Console 3,820.1 2,774.9 3,038.9 3,755.3 3,011.5 3,199.8 2,556.8 2,433.4 2,068.6 2,567.0 2,211.2 2,135.4 702.2 334.0 219.9 235.8 85.8 117.0 75.4 120.1 134.9 169.8 222.8 230.3 Total production Average per set $1,350,000 956,986 1,049,000 1,230,298 1,028,540 1,071,020 938,596 832,747 667,899 896,405 825,501 835,423 $181 178 172 171 140 138 127 130 136 141 145 135 Radio production Value Quantity Total production 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1956... 1959... 1960... 1961... (2) 11,928 10,431 12,852 10,028 14,133 13,518 14,505 11,747 15,622 17,127 17,374 Home Clock 7,053 5,275 3,539 (2) 777 1,929 2,041 1,875 2,244 2,311 2,516 2,038 2,794 2,720 3,017 3 ,8 8 6 2,696 2,998 3,037 3,228 2,621 3,145 3,440 3,042 Portable 1,675 1,333 1,720 1,742 1,333 2,027 3,113 3,265 3,373 4,128 4,535 5,747 Auto 4,740 4,543 3,243 5,183 4,124 6,864 5,057 5,496 3,715 5,555 6,432 5,568 Total production (2) $298,439 238,348 286,471 220,616 283,225 288,474 351,601 314,585 330,874 340,484 313,531 1 Excludes color television sets. 2 Not available. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association. 20 Average per set (2) $25 23 22 22 20 21 24 27 21 20 18 Table 10. Quantity and value of phonograph sales, by type of unit, and value of sales of phonograph records, 1950-61 Phonograph records Phonographs Quantity (thousands0 Year 1950.v, 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... l Quantity: Total sales (3 ) (3) 1,350.0 1,605.0 2,683.0 3,006.0 4,101.0 4,872.0 4,096.0 4,390.0 4,627.0 (3) Single phonograph Radiophonograph combination1 Record player attachments (3 ) (3 ) 322.0 724.0 1,886.0 2,234.0 3,338.0 3,718.0 3,212.0 3,475.0 3,681.0 2,979.0 (3 ) (3 ) 538.0 491.0 358.0 393.0 451.0 941.0 760.0 829.0 842.0 1,010.0 (3 ) (3) 490.0 390.0 439.0 379.0 312.0 213.0 124.0 86.0 104.0 (3) Value of total sales2 (millions) Value of total sales2 (millions) $116.2 (3) (3) (3) (3) 111.1 154.5 186.7 198.3 372.7 394.5 (3 ) $82.0 85.0 90.0 91.0 87.0 112.0 155.5 180.0 198.0 230.5 228.4 244.3 1 Radio-phonograph combinations are included here rather than with radios. Televisionphonograph combinations, on the other hand, are counted with television production. 2 Sales value at factory level. 3 Not available. Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association. Table 11. Value of electronic component shipments, by use as original equipment or replacement parts, 1950-61 [Value in millions] Year 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... All components shipped $1,158 1,261 1,730 C1 ) 2,008 2,200 2,280 2,435 2,325 2,833 3,054 3,266 Components shipped for use in original equipment Components shipped for use as replacement parts Amount Percent of all components shipped Amount $908 911 1,330 C1 ) 1,358 1,450 1,430 1,535 1,465 1,933 2,154 2,316 78.4 72.2 76.9 C1 ) 67.6 65.9 62.7 63.0 63.0 68.2 70.5 70.9 $250 350 400 500 650 750 850 900 860 900 900 950 1 Not available. Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association. 21 Percent of all components shipped 21.6 27.8 23.1 C1 ) 32.4 34.1 37.3 37.0 37.0 31.8 29.5 29.1 Table 12. Value of electronic component shipments, by type of component, 1950-61 Type of component 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 $2,008.0 708.0 276.0 206.1 5.1 2 20.0 (X ) 200.0 130.0 103.0 867.0 $2,200.0 800.0 358.1 209.0 12.3 2 30.0 (X ) 215.0 150.0 96.0 939.0 Value (millions) All components shipped.. $1,158.0 461.0 Tubes and semiconductors..... 250.0 Receiving tubes............ 210.7 TV picture tubes........... Transistors............... (x ) Diodes and rectifiers...... (x ) All others................ (?) Capacitors.................. (x) Resistors................... (?) Transformers................ (?) All other components3........ (x) $1,261.0 473.0 261.0 122.2 (x) (l) (?) (x ) (?) C> (x) $1,730.0 604.0 259.1 170.7 C1 2 ) C1) (X) 200.0 100.0 150.0 676.0 (?) (x) $303.7 234.9 (x ) (x) (?) (?) (?) (?) (x) Percent of total components shipped All components shipped.. Tubes and semiconductors...... Receiving tubes........... TV picture tubes........... Transistors............... Diodes and rectifiers...... All others................ Capacitors.................. Resistors................... Transformers................ All other components3 ......... 100.0 39.8 21.6 18.3 (x) (x) (?) (?) (?) (x ) (x) 1956 100.0 37.5 20.7 9.7 (X ) (x) (x ) (?) (?) (?) (x ) 1957 100.0 34.9 15.0 10.0 <t> (X) 11.6 5.8 8.7 39.1 1958 (?) (?) (x) 100.0 35.3 13.7 10.3 .3 2 1.0 C1) 10.0 6.5 5.1 43.2 1959 1960 100.0 (?) (?) (x ) (x) (?) 100.0 36.4 16.3 9.5 .6 2 1.4 (X) 9.8 6.8 4.4 42.7 1961 Value (millions) All components shipped.. $2,280.0 853.0 Tubes and semiconductors..... 374.2 Receiving tubes........... TV picture tubes........... 196.2 37.4 Transistors............... 76.0 Diodes and rectifiers...... 169.2 All others................ 224.0 Capacitors.................. 175.0 Resistors................... 90.0 Transformers................ 938.0 All other components3........ $2,435.0 925.0 384.4 183.2 69.7 102.3 185.4 225.0 171.0 110.0 1,004.0 $2,325.0 $2,833.0 914.0 1,152.0 341.9 368.9 163.5 183.8 222.0 112.7 112.8 166.3 183.1 211.0 218.0 267.0 194.0 158.0 129.0 102.0 933.0 1,091.0 $3,054.0 1,289.0 331.7 180.8 301.4 224.0 251.1 295.0 227.0 136.0 1,107.0 $3,266.0 1,303.0 311.1 185.6 299.5 200.0 306.8 338.0 274.0 153.0 1,198.0 Percent of total components shipped All components shipped.. Tubes and semiconductors..... Receiving tubes........... TV picture tubes.......... Transistors •••........ . Diodes and rectifiers...... All others................ Capacitors.................. Resistors................... Transformers................ All other components3........ 100.0 37.4 16.4 8.6 1.6 3.3 7.4 9.8 7.7 3.9 41.1 100.0 38.0 15.8 7.5 2.9 4.2 7.6 9.3 7.0 4.5 41.2 100.0 39.3 14.7 7.0 4.8 4.9 7.9 9.4 6.8 4.4 40.1 100.0 40.7 13.0 6.5 7.8 5.9 7.5 9.4 6.8 4.6 38.5 100.0 42.2 10.9 5.9 9.9 7.3 8.2 9.7 7.4 4.5 36.3 100.0 39.9 9.5 5.7 9.2 6.1 9.5 10.4 8.4 4.7 36.7 1 Not available. 2 Includes only germanium and silicon diodes and rectifiers. 3 Includes such components as speakers, tuners, antennas, relays, chassis, printed cir cuit boards, and filters. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association. 22 CHAPTER 3. ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS OF ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT AND SHIPMENTS ESTIMATES AND PROTECTIONS This chapter p re se n ts estim ates of e le c tro n ic s m anufacturing em ploym ent fo r 1958 to 1961, and pro jectio n s of such em ploy m ent fo r 1970. The m ethodology used to d eriv e these estim ates and pro jectio n s is sum m arized b riefly at the end of this ch ap ter and d escrib ed in detail in appen dix A. The estim ates and projections a re shown in table 13 and c h a rts 1 and 2 for em ploy m ent, and table 14fo r shipm ents. E stim ated em ploym ent in electro n ics m anufacturing ro se from 610,000 w o rk ers in 1958 to 778,000 in 1961, and is expected to reach n e a rly 1.1 m illion w o rk ers by 1970. The annual grow th ra te p ro jected for the r e m ainder of the 1960's (3.8 percent) is con sid erab ly low er than that which o ccu rred betw een 1958 and 1961 (8 .4 percent), chiefly because the in d u stry 1s grow th rate is ex pected to slacken a fte r 1965 owing to an anticipated leveling off in m ilita ry and space electro n ic expenditures. Value of electro n ics shipm ents, in con stant I960 d o llars, ro se from $8.2 billion in 1958 to $10.8 billion in 1961, and is expected to reach n e a rly $20 billion by 1970. As in the case of em ploym ent, the annual grow th ra te p ro jected for the re s t of the 1960's (6.8 percent) is low er than that which o ccu rred betw een 1958 and 1961 (11.3 p e rcen t),81 and the la rg e r p a rt of the p ro jected in c re a se is expected to take place by 1965. The m ore rapid expansion p ro jected for shipm ents than for em ploym ent re fle c ts an adjustm ent for p ro jected in c re a se s in shipm ents p er w orker of roughly 2.9 p e r cent p e r annum com pounded.8* As stated e a rlie r in the re p o rt,88 the estim a te s and p ro jectio n s of th is study r e fe r to electro n ics em ploym ent and ship m ents in m anufacturing in d u strie s, and exclude electro n ics activ ity in the A rm ed F o rc e s, the F e d e ra l G overnm ent, u n iv er sitie s, arid nonprofit re s e a rc h c e n te rs. E stim ates of the num ber of electro n ics w o rk ers in the A rm ed F o rc e s a re not available, but at le a st 55,000 w o rk ers a re estim ated to have been em ployed in late 1960 in electro n ics w ork in the F e d e ra l G overnm ent, u n iv e rsitie s, and nonprofit re s e a rc h c e n te rs. The e lectro n ics w ork done in these o rganizations c o n sists chiefly of re se a rc h , developm ent, and the negotia tion and ad m in istratio n of c o n tra c ts.84 The rem ain d er of th is section of the ch ap ter d e sc rib e s em ploym ent and shipm ent tren d s and outlook in each of the m ajor electro n ic product c ateg o ries. Military and Space P r o d u c t s . The w ork force engaged in m anufacturing m ilita ry and space electro n ic products is expected to grow by 176,000 w o rk ers betw een 1961 and 1970, from 283,000 to 459,000. This *34 increase from Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates in U.S. Department of Labor News Release 4698, “ Output per Man-Hour in the Private Economy in I960,** Aug. 18, 1961, p. 2.) The 1947-60 annual increase in manufacturing output per man-hour was used as the best available approximation of the annual in crease in shipments per employee in electronics manufacturing, despite differences between the concepts of output per man-hour and shipments per employee. 33See footnote 5. That footnote lists the exclusions from the report in terms of SIC industries. 34Sources for this employment estimate are few. A survey conducted by the Electronic Industries Association in late 1960 indicated that 22,000 engineers and scientists were employed in electronics R&D in these organizations--13,000 in the Federal Government and 9,000 in universities and nonprofit research centers. A survey sponsored by the National Science Foundation indicated that about 40 percent of the work force in research installations are engineers and scientists. (See Nonprofit Or ganizations —Expenditures and Manpower—1957, National Science si See table 14, footnote 3. 32 This adjustment was varied for each of the four major Foundation (NSF 61-37), May 1961, p. 31.) Applying this 40 per product categories to reflect projected differences among them cent assumption to the estimate of 22,000 engineers and scien tists derived from the EIA survey, a resultant total of 55,000 in technological change, automation, etc. The adjustment rates workers is obtained. This estimate is probably low since, in were so calculated, however, that their weighted average approxi addition to its R&D activities, the Federal Government employs mated a per annum increase of 2.9 percent compounded, equal to the estimated rate of annual increase over the 1947-60 large numbers of administrative and clerical workers to nego period in manufacturing output per man-hour. (Rate of annual tiate and supervise electronics contracts. 23 grow th re p re se n ts m ore than half (57 p e r cent) of the em ploym ent expansion p ro jected for the en tire electro n ics in dustry. The 1961-70 ra te of em ploym ent grow th for m ilita ry and space products is expected to be m ore rapid than that fo r any other m ajor electro n ic product category, although m ost of the p ro jected in c re a se w ill occur before 1965. By 1970, the w ork force in m ilita ry and space products is p ro jected at 42 p e r cent of to tal electro n ics em ploym ent, com p ared with 36 p ercen t in 1961. (See table 13 and c h a rts 1 and 2). The co n stan t-d o llar value of m ilita ry and space electro n ics shipm ents is expected to n early double betw een 1961 and 1970 (from $5.5 billion to $10.7 b illio n --tab le 14). As w ith em ploym ent, the anticipated grow th ra te in shipm ents fo r th is product category is higher than that for any other m ajor product category but m ost of the expansion is expected to occur before 1965. Shipm ents of m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic products depend alm ost en tirely upon expenditures for electro n ics re se a rc h , developm ent, and pro cu rem en t by the De p artm en t of D efense and NASA. The D ep art m ent of D efense accounts for m ost of these ex p e n d itu re s--96 p ercen t in fisc a l 1961 and an expected 86 p ercen t for fiscal 1970.85 NASA's electro n ics spending, b e ginning from a m uch sm aller base, is expected to in c re a se relativ ely m uch fa ste r than that of the D epartm ent of D efense. B etw een the fisc a l y ears 1963 and 1970, NASA's electro n ics expenditures are ex pected to grow n early threefold as against an anticipated 50 p ercen t in c re a se in DOD expenditure s .86 M ajor facto rs expected to boost m ilita ry and space electro n ics spending during the 1960*3 include (1) the growing electronic sophistication and com plexity of not only sp acecraft but also m issile s, a irc ra ft, and o th er defense item s; (2) the national effort to com plete a m anned lu n ar expedition before 1970; and (3) the in creasin g size and im portance of the m ilita ry space p ro g ram . It is expected that electro n ics ex- 356 35 See appendix A, table A-2. The projections for military and space expenditures shown in table A-2 and elsewhere in this report reflect the assumptions used, conversations with industry and government officials, published information bearing on the subject, projections of historical trends, etc. The projections might be different, of course, if based on other assumptions or other interpretations of the sources available. 36See appendix A, table A-2. penditures of the D epartm ent of D efense w ill slow down in th e ir ra te of grow th during the la s t half of the 1960*s, as som e of the Nation* s larg e m ilita ry electro n ic p ro g ram s move beyond th e ir re se a rc h , de velopm ent, and m ajor production stag es, and also that NASA’s expenditures w ill lev el off during the m id -I9 6 0 's. Industrial and Commercial Products. E m ploym ent in the m anufacture of in d u stria l and co m m ercial electro n ic products is ex pected to ris e by 60,000 w o rk ers betw een 1961 and 1970, from 126,000 to 186,000. This annual grow th ra te of 4.5 p ercen t com pounded w ill be slightly higher than that for the electro n ics in d u stry as a whole over the sam e period, although m uch low er than that for the in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial field betw een 1958 and 1961. By 1970, em ploym ent in the in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial se c to r is p ro jected at 17 p ercen t of to tal e le c tro n ics em ploym ent, com pared with 16 p ercen t in 1961. (See table 13 and ch a rts 1 and 2.) This expansion in em ploym ent is based on an anticipated grow th in shipm ents of in d u strial and co m m ercial electro n ic p ro d ucts, from $2.2 billion in 1961 to $4.1 billion in 1970 (table 14). A v a rie ty of facto rs a re expected to contribute to this anticipated grow th. R ising lev els of population and re a l in com e p er capita p ro jected for the 1960's a re expected to stim ulate la rg e r expendi tu re s for b u sin ess plant and equipm ent, including in d u strial and co m m ercial e le c tronic equipm ent. E lectronic devices a re expected to assum e in creasin g im portance, not only in m anufacturing but also in such d iv erse in d u stria l activ ities as m ining, the serv ice in d u strie s, and w holesale and re ta il tra d e . A utom ation sy stem s, heavily depend ent on electro n ic devices, w ill be in stalled in growing num bers in A m erican in d u stry . E lectronic control of product quality, color, quantity, and other c h a ra c te ristic s w ill b e com e m ore com m on in in d u stries such as ch em icals, petroleum refining, b ev erag es, and d airy pro d u cts. In m etalw orking, grow ing num bers of production m achines w ill be operated autom atically through the use of electro n ic c o n tro ls. The atom ic energy industry, which w ill need in creasin g am ounts of electro n ic products such as re a c to r sensing co n tro ls, G eiger co u n ters, and d o sim eters, exem plifies grow th in d u stries expected to stim ulate in d u strial electro n ics dem and during the 1960's. 24 Continuance of the population shift to the incom e p er capita, (2) in c re a se s in the num suburbs should re su lt in la rg e r num bers of b er of wom en w o rk e rs,38 which a re expected point-to-point m icrow ave in stallatio n s to to cre a te m ore dem and for labor saving facilitate com m unications betw een c e n tra l household equipm ent, m uch of it electro n ic, city h e a d q u a rte rs--su c h as downtown banks, and (3) in c re a se s in the num ber of new departm ent sto re s, and w areh o u ses--an d fam ily fo rm atio n s, with expanding dem and th e ir suburban b ran ch es. Increasing use of for new hom es and for electro n ic house intercom m unication system s betw een of hold equipm ent. The rate of new fam ily fices and production departm ents is ex form ations is expected to ris e esp ecially pected. P a st tren d s indicate that the use of rapidly after the m id -I960*s ,89 as children m obile radio system s w ill be in growing born during the postw ar period of the m iddem and by police and fire dep artm en ts, 1940!s reach m arriag eab le age. L argely highw ay m aintenance se rv ic e s, taxicab because of th is, the grow th ra te in ship com panies, am bulance serv ices, fo re s try m ents and em ploym ent for consum er e le c co nservation crew s, and other u s e rs . The tro n ics is expected to be higher during the dem and for a irc ra ft electro n ics ap p aratu s, second half of the 1960!s than during the such as ra d a r and com m unication sy stem s, firs t half. is also expected to ris e . The num ber of active civil a irc ra ft in the country by 1970 T elevision sets, rad io s, and phonographs is p ro jected at about 105,000, o n e-th ird are expected to continue as the p rin cip al higher than the num ber in 1961,87 and the consum er electro n ic item s during the r e am ount of electro n ic equipm ent p er a ir m ainder of the 1960,s. In creases a re an tic c ra ft w ill continue to grow . ipated in the num ber of hom es with te le v i sion sets and with m ore than one set, and P erh ap s the m ajor grow th item in the in the num ber of telev isio n sets that need in d u stria l electro n ics spectrum is the com rep lacem en t. The dem and for color te le p u ter. Com puting and data p ro cessin g vision should also in c re a se as the cost of equipm ent are expected to experience a such sets is reduced, a w ider v a rie ty of stead ily risin g dem and during the re s t of m odels becom es av ailable, color tra n s m is th is decade from fa c to rie s, insurance com sion and recep tio n a re im proved, and m ore panies, banks, re s e a rc h la b o ra to rie s, and p ro g ram s a re te le c a st in co lo r. other so u rces. V ery recen t developm ents include se lf-se rv ic e com puter c e n te rs, R ising R&D expenditures by in d u stry and com puters to p ro g ram other com puter op governm ent a re expected to re su lt in m any e ra tio n s, and com puters for use in c la s s new and im proved consum er p roducts. R e ro o m s, lib ra rie s , and m edical diagnostic cently developed item s include F M -stereo radio broadcasting and reception equipm ent; c e n te rs. com pact ra d a rs , rad io -telep h o n es, and Consumer P r o d u c t s . Em ploym ent in the radio d irectio n fin d ers for p leasu re boats; m anufacture of consum er electronic p ro d electro n ic toys, such as read y -to -assem b le ucts is expected to grow by 30,000 w o rk ers rad io s and intercom m unication system s; betw een 1961 and 1970, from 89,000 to tra n sisto riz e d , b a tte ry -o p e rate d television 119,000. The p ro jected annual grow th ra te sets; and tra n sisto riz e d , portable tape r e of 3.3 p ercen t com pounded is only slightly c o rd e rs. Many o th er consum er electro n ic low er than that for the electro n ics in d u stry products a re in v ario u s stages of develop as a whole, and em ploym ent in the con m ent. Some m ay be m arketed co m m ercially su m er electro n ics field w ill account for before 1970 while o th ers m ay not becom e roughly the sam e pro p o rtio n of em ploym ent co m m ercially feasible until after that date. in to tal electro n ics m an u factu rin g --11 p e rc e n t--in 1970 as in 1961. (See table 13 and Components. Em ploym ent in the m anufac c h a rts 1 and 2.) tu re of electro n ic com ponents is expected to grow by 40,000 w o rk ers betw een 1961 Shipm ents of consum er electro n ic p ro d and 1970, from 280,000 to 320,000. The *59 u cts a re expected to ris e from $2.1 billion 88 Interim Revised Projections of U.S. Labor Force. 1965*75 in 1961 to $3.5 billion in 1970 (table 14). (U.S. of Labor, BLS Special Labor Force Report 24, This expectation is based on projections 1962),Department p. 4. of (1) in c re a se s in population and re a l 59 “ Illustrative Projections of the Number of Households and Families: 1960 to 1980,’* Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 90, Series B estimates (U.S. Bureau of the Census), P. 1. s* Data for 1961 from FAA Statistical Handbook of Civil Aviation, 1961 edition (Federal Aviation Agency), p. 35. 25 annual grow th rate of 1.5 p ercen t com and diodes. By elim inating such p a rts and pounded is the low est grow th ra te projected the connections betw een them , re lia b ility fo r any m ajor product category, and is is in creased while space and pow er r e m uch low er than that fo r com ponents b e quirem ents a re d ecreased . E xam ples of tw een 1958 and 1961. The categ o ry 1s sh are m ic ro c irc u its a re "sem iconductor in te of to tal electro n ics em ploym ent is expected g rated " and "thin film " c irc u its. Sem i to drop from 36 p ercen t in 1961 to 30 p e r conductor in teg rated m ic ro c irc u its are cent in 1970. (See table 13 and c h a rts 1 fab ricated on o r w ithin a sem iconductor and 2.) slab by techniques such as oxide m asking, alloying, diffusing, m etal depositing, and S everal reaso n s explain why em ploym ent surface shaping. film m ic ro c irc u its, in the com ponents categ o ry is expected to thin m etallic filmIn sthin are evaporated on a grow le ss rap id ly during the 1960*s than g lass su b strate o r other insulating to em ploym ent in the electro n ic end-product function as re s is to rs , cap acito rs, andbase other categ o ries, even though the dem and for c irc u it elem en ts. com ponents re fle c ts the dem and for end pro d u cts. One reaso n is that shipm ents p er the recen tn ess of developm ents w orker in com ponents m anufacturing is in D espite icro m in iatu rizatio n , engineers and expected to ris e fa s te r than the in d u stry scienmtists re alread y looking tow ard the av erag e. A second is that the rate of com nano m in iatua rizatio electro n ic com po ponent rep lacem en t ap p ears to be d e c re a s n en ts--"n an o " in nth of is case re fe rrin g to ing w ith the grow ing use of tra n s is to rs and m easu rem en ts in billionths of an inch. o th er solid state com ponents and the de clining relativ e im portance of electro n tu b es,40 and th is d ecrease is expected to METHODOLOGY FOR DERIVING continue.41 A th ird reaso n is found in the ESTIMATES AND in creasin g v e rsa tility and efficiency of EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS com ponents, which is expected to low er the p ro p o rtio n which com ponents value re p re To derive the em ploym ent fig u res for sents of to tal end-equipm ent value. This is 1958 the estim ated value of to tal illu stra te d by the fact that the p ro jected shipmtoents1961, and ents p e r em ployee, in annual grow th ra te of 5.3 p ercen t com constant I960 d oshipm lla rs, w ere firs t developed. pounded betw een 1961 and 1970 in value of By dividing the shipm ents stim a te s by the com ponents shipm ents (table 14) is le ss sh ip m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee ee stim a te s, em than those p ro jected fo r the m ajor end- ploym ent estim ates w ere obtained. The product c ateg o ries. e stim ates w ere m ade by m ajor product The decade ahead w ill undoubtedly see categ o ry as w ell as for the in d u stry as a m arked changes in the n atu re of the com whole. ponents field. One m ajor tren d has been in the d irectio n of m icro m in iatu rizatio n or The shipm ents estim ates w ere based on m ic ro e le c tro n ics, that is, of ex trem ely data of the E lectro n ic In d u stries A sso cia sm all units m easu rab le in m illionths of an tion (EIA ).42 The sh ip m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee inch, w ith exceedingly low pow er re q u ire estim ates w ere based on data from the m ents. Although sp u rred chiefly by needs 1958 U.S. C ensus of M anufactures, and for of the national defense and space p ro g ram s, 1959 to 1961 w ere adjusted to re fle c t e s ti m icro m in iatu rizatio n probably w ill find m ated annual in c re a se s in shipm ents p er in creasin g applications in in d u stria l-c o m em ployee. m e rc ia l electro n ics and even in consum er products during the y ears ahead. The estim ated p ercen t which electro n ics shipm ents w ere of to tal shipm ents was M ost m icro m in iatu rized c irc u its involve calculated for each SIC 4 -digit in d u stry no d isc re te com ponents, such as tra n s is to rs which shipped at le a st $25 m illion in 42 These data were selected for use in this study because of their comprehensive and detailed nature. They were prepared by the EIA’s Marketing Services Department, on the basis of recurrent reports from cooperating respondents and periodic surveys of electronics manufacturers, supplemented by mate rial from the Bureau of the Census and the Business and Defense Services Administration, both of the U.S. Department of Com merce. 40 Projected employment in tubemaking will be lower in 1970 than in 1961 and about the same as in 1958. Between 1958 and 1961, employment in the manufacture of components other than tubes rose about four times more rapidly than employment in the manufacture of tubes. ^Shipments value of replacement parts equaled 37 percent of shipments value for all components in 1958, 29 percent in 1961, and is projected at 27 percent for 1970 (table 14). 26 electro n ic products in 1958. This p ercen t was applied to to tal em ploym ent in the in d u stry to derive estim ated em ploym ent; th is step involved the assum ption that em ploym ent in the m anufacture of electro n ic products m ay be distinguished with re a sonable accu racy from nonelectronic em ploym ent by p ro ratin g to tal em ploym ent according to proportions of electro n ics and nonelectronics shipm ents. Value of e le c tro n ic s shipm ents p e r electro n ics em ployee could then be derived for 1958, by relating estim ated electro n ics em ploym ent to e le c tro n ic s shipm ents. To develop com parable shipm ent s-p er-em p lo y ee estim ates for 1959, I960, and 1961, the 1958 shipm entsper-em p lo y ee estim ates w ere adjusted to take account of changes in shipm ents p er w o rk er. The sam e basic m ethod was used to de riv e em ploym ent pro jectio n s for 1970, that is, shipm ents pro jectio n s w ere divided by shipm ent s-p er-em p lo y ee p ro jectio n s. The d o llar pro jectio n s w ere stated in te rm s of the sam e I960 p rice lev el as w ere the 195861 d o llar e stim a te s. The ship m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee pro jectio n s w ere based on those for 1958 to 1961 and w ere adjusted to take into account p ro jected changes to 1970 in shipm ents p e r w o rk er. The shipm ents pro jectio n s w ere derived through pro jectio n s and c o rre la tio n s of various h isto ric a l se rie s, d escrib ed in detail in appendix A. The pro jectio n s should be view ed only as indications of g en eral m agnitudes and di rectio n s of change. Some of the h isto ric a l se rie s upon which they a re based do not extend back m any y e a rs, and even if they did, m ight be an u n certain guide to the future in this rap id ly changing field. The pro jectio n s probably would be different if the m ajor assum ptions used in deriving them had been different. These m ajor assum ptions concerning the rem ain d er of the 1960*s a re the following: (1) The in stitu tio n s and fundam ental eco nom ic stru c tu re of the United States w ill not change significantly; (2) high lev els of econom ic activ ity and em ploym ent w ill be m aintained though tem p o rary re c e ssio n s m ay occur; (3) scientific and technological advances w ill continue at a rapid ra te , in cluding the developm ent of new and im proved weapons and space sy stem s; (4) n eith er w ar nor substantial d isarm am en t w ill o ccu r, and the N ation w ill continue to striv e for a defense capability sufficient to d eter po ten tial a g g re sso rs; and (5) the achievem ent of a m anned lunar expedition before 1970 w ill continue as a national goal and as the m ajor elem ent in our civ ilian space p ro g ram . 27 Table 13. Employment in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 Product category A ll c a te g o rie s................ M ilitary and space products. In d u stria l and commercial p ro d u cts..................................... Consumer products...................... Components..................................... 1. Tubes................................. 2. Other than tu b es......... 1. O riginal equipm ent... 2. Replacement p a r ts . . . . 1958 1959 609.8 689.4 245.6 256.2 86.3 96.8 72.7 89.9 205.2 246.5 79.6 89.2 125.6 157.3 129.5 168.1 75.7 78.4 1960 734.1 270.7 109.4 93.3 260.7 87.6 173.1 183.8 76.9 1961 777.7 283.0 126.0 88.7 280.0 88.8 191.2 198.6 81.4 Percent of to ta l employment Percent change per annum compounded Employment (thousands) 1970 1,084.5 458.7 186.5 119.2 319.9 80.0 239.9 232.5 87.4 1958-61 8.4 4.8 13.4 6.8 10.9 3.7 15.0 15.3 2.4 1961-70 3.8 5.5 4.5 3.3 1.5 -1.2 2.5 1.8 .8 1958 100.0 40.3 14.2 11.9 33.7 13.1 20.6 21.2 12.4 Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal to ta ls . Source: Estim ates and projections developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s . 1961 100.0 36.4 16.2 11.4 36.0 11.4 24.6 25.5 10.5 1970 100.0 42.3 17.2 11.0 29.5 7.4 22.1 21.4 8.1 Chart 1. Employment In Electronics Manufacturing Estimates 1958-61, and Projections 1970 Thousands of Employees 1100 Consumer Products 1000 Industrial and Commercial Products 1 ) Components 900 Thousands of Employees 1100 1000 " 900 M M ilitary and Space Products 800 700 600 1 500 400 ' - 300 - 200 - 100 0 1958 1959 1960 1970 1961 Chart 2. Employment Increases in Electronics Manufacturing Estimates 1958-61, and Projections 1961-70 Percent Employment Increase Per Annum Percent Employment Increase Per Annum Compounded, 1958-61 Compounded, 1961-70 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Military and Space Products Industrial and Commercial Products TOTAL ELECTRONICS EMPLOYMENT Consumer Products Components 29 Table 14. Value of electronics shipments in constant 1960 dollars, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 Product category Shipments (in b illio n s of 1960 d o llars) 1959 1960 1961 $8.18 $9.16 4.43 4.72 1.38 1.59 1.55 1.97 2.21 2.77 1.39 1.89 .88 .82 $9.95 5.10 1.85 2.10 3.05 2.15 .90 $10.75 5.49 2.20 2.06 3.44 2.44 1.00 1958 A ll e lectro n ics sh ip ments2 ............................. M ilitary and space products.. In d u stria l and com m ercial... products....................................... Consumer products........................ Components....................................... O riginal equipment2. . . . . . Replacement p a rts .............. o Percent change per annum compounded 1970 1958-61 $19.80 10.70 4.10 3.50 5.49 3.99 1.50 3 11.3 7.4 16.8 9.9 15.9 20.6 6.8 Percent of a ll shipments 1961-70 1958 1961 1970 3 6.8 7.7 7.2 6.0 5.3 5.6 4.6 100.0 54.2 16.9 18.9 (2 ) 10.0 100.0 51.1 20.5 19.2 (2 ) 9.3 100.0 54.0 20.7 17.7 (2) 7.6 — — - - 1 Shipment estim ates fo r 1958-61 are in constant 1960 d o llars and to th a t extent d iffe r from the cu rren t-d o llar e s t i mates in ta b le s 6, 8, 11, and 12 . 2 The value of components used in o rig in al equipment is not included in to ta l shipment value in order to avoid d u p li catio n , since original-equipm ent components are already counted in the value of the end equipment of which they are a p a rt. See also footnote 3. 3 These per annum ra te s of change were computed from to ta l shipments estim ates which include components used as o rig in a l equipment, and not from the unduplicated to ta l shipments estim ates shown in the ta b le . This was done to permit a more v alid comparison w ith the per annum growth ra te s shown fo r employment in tab le 13. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal to ta ls . Source: Estim ates and projections developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s . CHAPTER 4. OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK IN ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING The ratio of nonproduction to production w o rk ers v a rie s w idely betw een m ilita ry space and in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial e le c tro n ics on the one hand (52 to 48 in 1961) and the consum er products and com ponents fields on the o th er (each w ith a ratio of 27 to 73 in 1961--ta b le 15). M anufacturing p ro c e sse s in m ilita ry and space electro n ics, and to a le s s e r extent in in d u stria l and co m m ercial e lectro n ics, involve a g reat deal of R&D w ork and low -volum e p roduc tion of custom -m ade end pro d u cts. In the consum er products and com ponents field s, conversely, m anufacturing p ro c e sse s tend to be of an assem b ly line, m ass production n atu re. The tren d tow ard grow th in the relativ e size of the nonproduction w ork force is due to se v e ra l fa c to rs. One is the grow ing im portance of R&D w ork and low -volum e p ro duction of item s m ade to o rd e r on a co n tract b asis, thus in creasin g the need for engi n e e rs and other tech n ical p erso n n el and d ecreasin g the need for sem isk illed and unskilled production w o rk ers. This facto r is esp ecially significant in m ilita ry and space e lectro n ics, and to a sm aller degree in the in d u stria l and co m m ercial field, but the R&D content is high and in creasin g also in other pro d u cts, such as sem iconductors and sp ecial-p u rp o se tubes. A nother facto r is the continual introduction of technological changes, such as m echanization in assem b ly line w ork, which tends to d ecrease the num b e r of production w o rk ers needed to produce NONPRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION WORKERS Two outstanding featu res of the occupa tional stru c tu re in electro n ics m anufactur ing a re (1) a tren d tow ard in c re a se s in the relativ e size of the nonproduction w ork fo rce, and (2) the existence of m arked dif feren ces in occupational d istrib u tio n s among the in d u stry 1s m ajor product categ o ries. N onproduction w o rk e rs--e n g in e e rs and o ther technical w o rk ers, ad m in istrativ e and executive p ersonnel, and c le ric a l and stenographic e m p lo y e e s--a re expected to account for n early half (48 percent) of to tal electro n ics m anufacturing em ploym ent by 1970 (table 15). They re p resen ted an e s ti m ated 40 p ercen t of such em ploym ent in 1961, 38 p ercen t in 1958, and only 19 p e r cent in 1950.48 44 G row th during the 1960*s in the relativ e size of the nonproduction w ork force is p ro jected for each of the electro n ic product categ o ries, and is ex pected to be esp ecially rapid in the c a te g o ries of m ilita ry -sp a c e and in d u strialco m m ercial products and of electro n tu b e s.*445 4s The 1950 percentage is based on different data from those in table 15 and is not precisely comparable, but it helps to pro vide a rough order of magnitude for the change since 1950, The 1950 estimate is based on information in “ Expansion in Elec tronics Employment,“ Monthly Labor Review, February 1952, p. 151, and “ The Effect of the Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing,** Occupational Outlook Handbook, Supplement No. 15, May 1951. 44For U.S. manufacturing as a whole, in comparison, nonpro duction workers represented a smaller and less rapidly expand ing part of the work force: 26 percent in 1961, 25 percent in 1958, and 18 percent in 1950. (Data for 1961 from Employment and Earnings, June 1962; data for 1958 and 1950 from Employment and Earnings Statistics for the United States, 1909-60 <BLS Bulletin 1312,1961). 45 The methodology used to derive the estimates and projec tions in table 15 is described in detail in appendix A. The esti mates were developed from statistics of nonproduction and production workers published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment and Earnings series. Since these figures are published by SIC group, they had to be converted to the product categories of table 15; this was done by means of procedures described in appendix A. Because of the form in which the BLS data are available, estimates for the militaryspace and industrial-commercial product categories could be developed only as a combined group. The projections for 1970 involved the assumption that changes in ratios of nonproduction to production workers would continue, but not so rapidly as between 1958 and 1961. This assumption was based on analysis of the many variables expected to affect the industry and its employment composition during the remain ing years of the 1960’s. The projections were calculated by using approximately half the per annum rates of change in nonproduc tion-production worker proportions between 1958 and 1961, with slight variations from product category to product category as deemed reasonable in the light of special influences expected to affect employment in that category. The resultant proportions for 1970 were applied to the employment forecasts already made for that year (see table 13) to derive projected numbers of non production and production workers. Alternative projections of nonproduction-production worker ratios were also made, and appear in appendix A. 31 a given output. This tren d tow ard autom atic o peration is esp ecially significant w here m ass production techniques a re the ru le, as in the consum er products and com po nents field s. F inally, the grow th of re c o rd keeping and com m unication req u irem en ts in m odern b u sin ess has caused an in c re a se in num bers of c le ric a l and other office w o rk ers, despite the introduction and ex panded use of im proved office equipm ent, esp ecially fo r data p ro cessin g . The num ber of engineers and sc ie n tists in electro n ics m anufacturing was estim ated at 128,000 in I9 60,46 n e a rly 10 tim es as m any as the estim ated 13,000 in m id1951.47 The in c re a se in these w o rk ers was considerably g re a te r than the threefold grow th in to tal electro n ics m anufacturing em ploym ent over approxim ately the sam e p erio d .48 By I960, engineers and scien tists w ere estim ated to re p re se n t roughly 17 p ercen t of to tal electro n ics em ploym ent.49* Many production ope ratio n s in electro n ics m anufacturing have been m echanized in whole o r in p a rt in recen t y ears, and m any o th er operations a re expected to be m ech anized in the y ears ahead. The following d iscu ssio n d escrib es som e of these inno vations, sep arately for end-equipm ent and com ponents m anufacturing. paper and phenolic p lastic, bonded to cop p er foil. A w iring p a tte rn o r c irc u it is printed on the copper foil. Com ponents for the c irc u it are th read ed through holes in the board so as to m ake contact w ith the copper. Soldering of these contacts can be done in one operation. "B ecause the board is re g u la r in shape and puts all the con ductors into one plane. . . [m an u factu rers in the 1950*s w ere] provided fo r the firs t tim e with the m eans of handling. . . p ro duction in autom atic m ach in ery .,,so The p rin te d -c irc u it board was introduced in plants m anufacturing larg e quantities of standardized item s, such as rad io s and telev isio n re c e iv e rs. By the m id -1950*s, m ost m an u factu rers of consum er equipm ent w ere using c irc u it boards in th e ir p roducts. By the late 1950's, c irc u it boards w ere standard equipm ent in com puters and m any other in d u stria l and m ilita ry end p roducts. Since the introduction of th ese b o ard s, num erous production im provem ents have been introduced in such p ro c e sse s as the in sertio n of com ponents into the b oards and the testin g of com pleted c irc u its and equip m ent. Many o th er innovations which in creased productivity w ere introduced in end-equip m ent m anufacturing during the 1950* s and the e a rly 1960's. Im provem ents w ere m ade in d ip -so ld erin g and plating techniques. New Mechanization in End-Equipment Manufac soldering, w elding, and fastening devices turing. No single developm ent so m odified w ere developed to speed assem b ly , even the production of electro n ic end equipm ent w here m in iatu rized c irc u itry was used. during the 1950*s as the introduction of the M iniaturization of com ponents and c irc u its p rin te d -c irc u it board, which elim inated the reduced storage req u irem en ts and in creased m ass of w iring found in electronic products m ate rials-h an d lin g efficiency. New types of m anufactured conventionally. The prin ted - m ovable conveyor sy stem s w ere introduced. c irc u it board co n sists of a lam inate of New m achines w ere developed to tra n s fe r p a rtly assem b led units from one assem b ly line to another. V arious devices w ere m ade * Electronic Industries Association, Electronic Industries 1962 Yearbook, p. 67. This estimate is based on a 1960 yearend to feed com ponents m ore conveniently to survey by the EIA Marketing Services Department in cooperation a sse m b le rs. Im proved types of autom atic with the Department of Defense. te st equipm ent w ere engineered. M achine 47 Mid-1951 estimate from “ Expansion in Electronics Em tools used in 1958 w ere, on the av erage, 40 ployment,’* Monthly Labor Review, February 1952, p. 154. As with the total employment figures in this report, both the 1960 p ercen t m ore productive than those of 10 and 1951 figures exclude engineers and scientists working for y ears b e fo re .51* the Federal Government, universities, and nonprofit research centers (estimated at 22,000 by the EIA’s 1960 survey). G re a te r efficiency was achieved by im 4®From an estimated 244,000 workers in 1950 (“ Expansion in provem ents in plant layout and fa c ilitie s. Electronics Employment,” Monthly Labor Review, February P ro d u c e rs built o r rem odeled plants so 1952, p. 151) to 734,000 in 1960 (table 13). 49 Calculated by relating the EIA survey figure of 128,000 engineers and scientists to the total employment estimate of 734,000 workers (table 13). This estimate has the weakness of being derived from two different sources, which may not be comparable in every respect. Scattered data in the files of the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the percentage may be too high, and that 14-15 percent may be a more accurate estimate. so “ Automation,” address by Dr. Elmer W. Engstrom, Radio Corporation of America, at the Centennial Symposium on Modern Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Nov. 11, 1955. 51 George Sideris, “ Production Machinery for the Electronics Industry,” Electronics, New York, McGraw-Hill, Oct. 24, 1958, p. 73. 32 v isits w ere m ade in m id -1962 to se v e ra l electro n ics estab lish m en ts. Although the plants v isited em ployed n early 5 p ercen t of all electro n ics m anufacturing w o rk ers and covered ev ery m ajor electro n ic product category, they do not provide a re p re se n ta tive sam ple of the in d u stry and the in fo r m ation receiv ed from them is illu stra tiv e only. This inform ation supports the conclusion that occupational p attern s v ary according to the type of electro n ic products m ade. Illu strativ e occupational d istrib u tio n s shown in table 16 indicate that, in m id -1962, non production w o rk ers w ere in the m ajo rity (60 p ercen t of the w ork force) in m ilita ry and space electro n ics m anufacturing53 but definitely in the m in o rity (30 p ercen t of the w ork force) in consum er products m anu fa c tu rin g .54 The g re a te r em phasis in m ili ta ry and space electro n ics on R&D w ork and low -volum e custom production is evident from these d istrib u tio n s. In m ilita ry and space ele c tro n ic s, 33 p ercen t of the w ork force w ere en g in eers, technicians, and d raftsm en com pared with 11 p ercen t in the consum er products fie ld ,55 13 percen t w ere skilled w o rk ers com pared with 7 p ercen t in the consum er products field, and 27 p ercen t w ere sem isk illed and unskilled w o rk ers com pared w ith 63 p ercen t in consum er products e lectro n ics. A ssem b lers w ere the la rg e st m anual occupational group, rep resen tin g 42 percen t of all w o rk ers in the consum er products categ o ry and 16 p ercen t in m ilita ry and space electro n ics (table 16). A ll asse m b le rs in the consum er products plants w ere c la s sified as sem isk illed o r unskilled but som e in the m ilita ry -sp a c e products plants w ere th at production lin es could be realigned sw iftly. Lighting sy stem s w ere im proved. G as, electricity , w ater, and other u tilitie s w ere placed fo r g re a te r a c c e ssib ility to production stations. The use of co m p ressed a ir was introduced "to operate and feed sm all p a rts to bench and hand tools, to d riv e assem b ly m achinery, fo r drying, painting, cleaning, and chem ical tank agi ta tio n ." 52 Mechanization in Components Manufactur ing. The introduction of the tra n s is to r in the e a rly 1950*8 re p re se n te d an im portant developm ent in the com ponents field. Tech niques to m ake tra n s is to rs differ co n sid er ably from those used to m ake other com ponents. T ra n sisto r m anufacture is a ch em ical-m etallu rg ical p ro cess; the silicon and germ anium c ry sta ls used a re specially "grow n" and assem b led in m eticulously clean and fully a ir conditioned ro o m s. A l though the f irs t tra n s is to rs w ere assem b led en tirely by hand with a relativ ely high re je c tio n ra te , im provem ents in techniques rapidly d ecreased unit labor req u irem en ts and in creased product re lia b ility and p e r form ance. P roduction lines w ere in c re a s ingly m echanized, with autom atic equipm ent fo r such operations as assem bling, sorting, and testin g . A dvances in production techniques have o ccu rred since the early 1950's also in the m anufacture of com ponents other than tra n s is to rs . Tube m anufacturing has b e com e highly m echanized in all operations except m ount assem bly, and im provem ents in productivity continue. T est equipm ent is becom ing m ore and m o re autom atic, as exem plified by a m achine which can te st 1,800 electro n tubes an hour. A com putercontrolled assem b ly line has been in tro duced in an alread y highly autom ated plant m aking re s is to rs , which has doubled the p la n t's production ra te to 2,400 units an hour. Still another developm ent is a m u lti station winding m achine which winds in du cto rs autom atically. A utom ated p ro c e d u res a re being introduced also in the re la tiv e ly new field of m ic ro e le c tro n ics. s* The most comparable proportion shown in table 15 to this figure is that of 52 percent for the 1961 nonproduction-worker proportion in military-space and industrial-commercial prod ucts combined. This would imply that nonproduction workers represent a smaller part of the work force in industrial-com mercial than in military-space electronics. 54 The comparable proportion shown in table 15, for consumer products manufacturing in 1961, is 27 percent. 55 Engineers and scientists alone represented 21 percent of the work force in military and space electronics and 6 percent in the consumer products category (table 16). Additional data in the files of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, covering about oneseventh of total estimated electronics employment, show that in January 1961 engineers and scientists represented approximately 18 percent of electronics employment in the military-space and industrial-commercial categories combined, 10 percent in com ponents manufacturing, and 7 percent in the consumer products field. (Cf. estimates earlier in the present chapter showing that for electronics manufacturing as a whole engineers and scien tists represent an estimated 14 to 17 percent of all employment.) OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS AND TRENDS To supplem ent and verify the m a te ria l on occupational tren d s p resen ted above, field 52Ibid., p. 77. 33 logical change on production w o rk ers in his plant: "The drive tow ard low ering co sts continues as a strong tre n d in this plant, in o rd e r to m eet dom estic an dforeign com petition. Innovations w hich m ake p ro duction p ro c e sse s m ore autom atic occur frequently. P roduction w o rk ers displaced by technological change a re not laid off but tra n s fe rre d to other jobs. In the sh o rt run, of co u rse, innovations c u rta il the to tal num ber of production jobs, but the ultim ate purpose is to in c re a se re lia b ility and low er co sts and thus sell a g re a te r num ber of im proved, le s s expensive se ts. To the ex tent this purpose is realized , technological change need not d ecrease em ploym ent on the production line. P roduction w o rk ers a re usually the fir s t to be taken on when sales dem and in c re a se s." The em ploym ent outlook d iffers consid erab ly am ong occupational groups in a plant m anufacturing sem iconductors, ac cording to an official of that plant: "The m ost prom ising future job opportunities h ere and elsew here in sem iconductor e le c tro n ics ex ist for highly skilled equipm ent m echanics, electro m ech an ical technicians, and electro n ics tech n ician s. "E ngineering sh o rtag es m ay fo rce con tinued relian ce on som e nondegree engi n e e rs, although the recru itin g drive at this plant is fo r degree en g in eers. N early onefourth of the en g in eers now em ployed h ere a re nondegree en g in eers, alm o st all of them being fo rm er production o r la b o ra to ry technicians who have been upgraded. "C le ric a l w o rk ers m ay be ad v ersely af fected if the plant introduces com puters for som e of its office w ork, as is being actively considered. On the other hand, new jobs should be c reated for keypunch o p e ra to rs and other co m p u ter-asso ciated w o rk ers. "Job opportunities for sem isk illed and unskilled production w o rk ers have been cu rtailed in th is plant in the p ast two or th ree y ears by the introduction of autom atic p ro cessin g and testing equipm ent. This tren d tow ard m ore autom ation m ay be ex pected to continue because it is p a rt of our answ er to im proved product quality and re lia b ility and to the low ered co sts needed to m eet com petition both at hom e and from abroad. F uture job opportunities for sem i skilled and unskilled production w o rk ers w ill grow only if product dem and expands sufficiently to m ore than offset anticipated in c re a se s in output p e r w o rk er." cla ssifie d as skilled. O ther relativ ely larg e m anual occupational groups w ere in sp ec to rs and te s te rs ; an aly zers and tro u b le sh o o ters; fabricating w o rk ers; p ro cessin g w o rk ers; and m achinists and rep airm en . A few of the plant officials interview ed in m id -1962 m ade com m ents and p re d ic tions regarding occupational tre n d s. D is cussing the future electro n ics w ork fo rce, one executive of a plant m aking m ilita ry space and in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial electro n ic equipm ent stre sse d the role of m ic ro electro n ics: "The com position of the w ork force of the future w ill depend heavily on the future of m icro electro n ics. Although being developed m ainly for its m ilita ry and space applications, m icro electro n ics w ill undoubtedly find application also in other electro n ic se c to rs. This growing field is creatin g an acute dem and for technical people w ith background in solid- state w ork. It m ay affect production w o rk ers as w ell, since it should req u ire few er soldering, w iring, and sim ila r operations and m ore m icro sco p ic, *white room* w ork. This tren d tow ard m ore and m ore m in iatu rizatio n m ay in c re a se the n u m erical im portance of wom en in assem b ly w ork." An executive in another estab lish m en t m anufacturing m ilita ry -sp a c e and indus tria l-c o m m e rc ia l electro n ic equipm ent em phasized the esp ecially rapid grow th in num bers of engineers and other nonpro duction w o rk ers: "B etw een 1958 and 1962, the num ber of engineers in this plant ro se 68 p ercen t, the num ber of technicians 56 p ercen t, d raftsm en 78 p ercen t, and c le ric a l w o rk ers 58 p ercen t. D uring this p erio d the to tal num ber of sa la rie d w o rk ers in creased 45 p ercen t while the num ber of hourly wage w o rk ers fell 10 p ercen t. As a re su lt, sa la rie d w o rk ers ro se from 41 p ercen t of to tal em ploym ent in 1958 to 53 p ercen t in 1962. This tren d is due m ainly to the grow th in co n tracts for m issile and space e le c tro n ic s; these g en erally have a high R&D content and involve low volum es with ex tre m e ly high re lia b ility req u irem en ts. E ngineers and related w o rk ers w ill find in creasin g job opportunities at this plant in the y ears im m ediately ahead. One p o s sible exception is in d u strial engineers; the sm a lle r production runs com m on to m is sile and space w ork m ay ad v ersely affect job opportunities for them ." An official in consum er products m anu facturing evaluated the im pact of techno 34 y ears (table 18).5658 P ro jected declines are relativ ely sm all in the m ilita ry -in d u stria l and consum er products categ o ries, but ra th e r sh arp (from 50 p ercen t in 1961 to 41 p ercen t in 1970) in the m anufacture of electro n tubes. Tube m anufacturing, m o re over, is the only in d u stry segm ent in which the absolute num ber of wom en w o rk ers is expected to fall betw een 1961 and 1970; the in d u stry 1s anticipated expansion through the 1960!s should re su lt in in c re a se s in the absolute num ber of wom en w o rk ers in all other product c ateg o ries. WOMEN WORKERS B ecause of the n u m erical im portance of wom en w o rk ers in electro n ics m anufactur ing, inform ation concerning them was co l lected during the field v isits m ade in m id1962 and m uch of it is included in table 17. Although the data a re frag m en tary , they point up the relativ ely larg e proportions of wom en among production w o rk ers and the relativ ely sm all proportions in non production occupations except c le ric a l and stenographic. Women outnum ber m en in som e types of production jobs, esp ecially in m ass production operations such as those in co n su m er-p ro d u ct and sem iconductor m anufacturing. In 1961, women w o rk ers rep re se n te d an estim ated 41 p ercen t of total em ploym ent in electro n ics m anufacturing (table 18).® F o r U.S. m anufacturing as a whole, in c o m p ariso n , wom en w o rk ers re p re se n te d about 26 p ercen t of all w o rk ers in that y e a r.57 They re p re se n te d a low er proportion (30 p ercen t) in the m ilita ry -sp a c e and indus tria l-c o m m e rc ia l categ o ry in 1961 and higher p roportions in the consum er prodcuts (49 percent) and com ponents (56 p e r cent) categ o ries. These differences a re asso ciated chiefly with differences in p ro portions of production w o rk ers. Women a re em ployed m ainly as production w o rk ers and th erefo re a re m ore num erous w here production w o rk ers a re m ore num erous. B ecause the p ro p o rtio n of production w o rk ers to to tal em ploym ent in electro n ics m anufacturing is expected to decline b e tw een 1961 and 1970 (table 15), the p ro p o r tion of women w o rk ers to to tal em ploym ent is also expected to decline betw een those 56 The estimates for 1958-61 in table 18 were developed from statistics on women workers published quarterly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment and Earnings series. Since these figures are published by SIC group, they had to be converted to the product categories of table 18. The methodology for doing this, and for developing the projections to 1970, is similar to that used to derive the data in table 15 and is described in appendix A, Because of the form in which the BLS data are available, estimates for the military-space and industrialcommercial product categories could be developed only as a combined group. 5T Employment and Earnings, August 1962, pp. iv and viii. In only one product categ o ry shown in table 18--com ponents other than tu b e s --is the pro p o rtio n of women w o rk ers expected to in c re a se during the 1960*s even though, in th is categ o ry as in the o th ers, the p ro portion of production w o rk ers is expected to continue to decline. One reaso n for th is difference in p ro jectio n s is that wom en are em ployed not only as production w o rk ers but also in c le ric a l and o th er office jobs, and the p ro jected tren d in the p roportion of office jobs is upw ard. A second reaso n lie s in the m arked tren d tow ard m icro m in ia tu rizatio n of sem iconductors and oth er com ponents, which m ay give wom en an advantage over m en in som e types of assem b ly and other production-line w ork and as a re su lt m ay in crease the pro p o rtio n of wom en production w o rk ers. This tren d m ay be im portant also in the m ilita ry and indus tria l field because of the in creasin g use in that field of m icro m in iatu rized com ponents and c irc u its. This m ay help to explain why in that product categ o ry the p ro jected drop in proportionate em ploym ent is expected to be le ss for w om en w o rk ers than fo r p ro duction w o rk ers. 58The projected decrease is from 41 percent to 39 percent. In 1950, women workers were estimated at 50 percent of total electronics employment. The 1950 figure is not precisely com parable with those in table 18, but it provides a rough indication of the extent of change. (1950 estimate developed by U.S. Depart ment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, on the basis of mate rial from “ Expansion in Electronics Employment,” Monthly Labor Review. February 1952, and “ The Effect of the Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing,” Occupational Outlook Handbook, Supplement No. 15 (Bureau of Labor Statistics), May 1951. 35 Table 15. Nonproduction and production workers in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 Product category and type of worker1 Total e lectro n ics employment.... Nonproduction w orkers................. Production w orkers........................ M ilitary-space and in d u s tria lcommercial products2.................................. Nonproduction w orkers.............................. Production w orkers.................................... Consumer products........................................... Nonproduction w orkers.............................. Production w orkers..................................... Components...................................................... Nonproduction w orkers.............................. Production w orkers..................................... Tubes.................................................... ................ Nonproduction w orkers.............................. Production w orkers..................................... Other than tu b es........................ .................... Nonproduction w orkers.............................. Production w orkers..................................... Percent of employment in product category Number of workers (thousands) 1958 1959 1960 609.8 229.0 380.8 331.9 158.3 173.6 72.7 19.0 53.7 205.2 . 51.7 153.5 79.6 20.5 59.1 125.6 31.1 94.5 689.4 256.1 433.3 353.0 173.0 180.0 89.9 22.7 67.2 246.5 60.4 186.1 89.2 23.7 65.5 157.3 36.7 120.6 734.1 285.3 448.8 380.1 190.4 189.7 93.3 24.5 68.8 260.7 70.4 190.3 87.6 25.1 62.5 173.1 45.2 127.9 1961 1970 1958 777.7 1,084.5 100.0 314.3 516.0 37.6 463.4 568.3 62.4 409.0 645.2 100.0 214.3 386.5 47.7 194.7 258.7 52.3 88.7 119.2 100.0 33.3 26.1 23.8 64.9 85.9 73.9 280.0 319.9 100.0 76.2 96.2 25.2 203.8 223.7 74.8 88.8 80.0 100.0 26.6 30.0 25.8 50.0 74.2 62.2 191.2 239.9 100.0 49.5 66.2 24.8 141.7 173.7 75.2 1959 1960 1961 1970 100.0 37.1 62.9 100.0 49.0 51.0 100.0 25.2 74.8 100.0 24.5 75.5 100.0 26.6 73.4 100.0 23.3 76.7 100.0 38.9 61.1 100.0 50.1 49.9 100.0 26.3 73.7 100.0 27.0 73.0 100.0 28.7 71.3 100.0 26.1 73.9 100.0 40.4 59.6 100.0 52.4 47.6 100.0 26.8 73.2 100.0 27.2 72.8 100.0 30.0 70.0 100.0 25.9 74.1 100.0 47.6 52.4 100.0 59.9 40.1 100.0 27.9 72.1 100.0 30.1 69.9 100.0 37.5 62.5 100.0 27.6 72.4 1 "Production and re la te d workers" (referred to in th is report simply as production w orkers), as defined by the Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s include "working foremen and a l l nonsupervisory workers (including leadmen and train ees) engaged in fa b ric a tin g , processing, assembling, inspection, receiving, storage, handling, packing, warehousing, shipping, maintenance, re p a ir, ja n ito ria l and watchman serv ices, product development, a u x ilia ry production fo r plant*s own use (e.g.pow er p la n t), and recordkeeping and other services closely associated w ith the above production operations." ^ Because of the form in which the source data were av ailab le, estim ates could not be developed fo r the m ilitary-space category sep arately from the industrial-com m ercial category. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal to ta ls . Source: Estim ates and projections developed by U.S*. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s . Table 16. Illustrative occupational distributions in electronics manufacturing, military-space and consumer products, mid-1962 Military and space products Occupation Consumer products Percent Total employment......................................... Nonproduction workers.......................................... Engineers and other technical workers....................... Engineers1 ................................................. Technicians................................................ Draftsmen.................................................. Administrative and executive2............. .................. Clerical and stenographic.................................... Production workers............................................. Skilled............... ...................................... Assemblers................................................. Analyzers and troubleshooters............................. Processing workers3 ............... ........................ Machinists and repairmen................................... Sheet-metal workers........................................ Tool and die makers........................................ Welders.................................................... Carpenters................................................. Electricians............................................... Plumbers and pipefitters................................... Other skilled workers4 ..................................... Semiskilled and unskilled......... .......................... Assemblers................................................. Inspectors and testers..................................... Fabricating workers5 .................................... ••• Processing workers6 ........................................ Shipping and receiving workers............................. Material handlers, truckdrivers, and laborers............. Custodial and janitorial workers.......................... Other semiskilled and unskilled workers7 ...... ............ 100.0 60.0 33.4 21.0 7.7 4.7 13.2 13.4 40.0 12.6 5.2 1.1 .2 3.7 .8 .3 .6 .2 .2 .2 .1 27.4 11.0 3.1 3.7 3.1 1.3 .3 1.5 100.0 30.0 11.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 12.0 7.0 70.0 6.8 — — 5.1 .3 -.4 .1 .2 .2 .1 .4 63.2 42.0 14.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.2 .4 3.4 .6 1 Includes such occupations as e le c tric a l engineer, electro n ics engineer, design engi neer, in d u stria l engineer, mechanical engineer, value engineer, te s t and q u ality control engineer, and chemical engineer. The occupational d istrib u tio n for m ilita ry and space products also includes a small number of s c ie n tis ts , such as p h y sic ists, chem ists, m ath em atician s, and m e ta llu rg ists. 2 Includes such employees as managers and supervisors, foremen, salesmen, and personnel in purchasing, in d u stria l re la tio n s, accounting, marketing, and advertising. 3 Includes such occupations as sk ille d e le c tro p la ter and etcher. 4 Includes such occupations as statio n ary engineer, m illw right, blacksm ith, and sk ille d machine to o l operator. 5 Includes such occupations as punch press, d r i l l p ress, power brake, shear, and saw operator, grinder, and buffer. 6 Includes such occupations as spray and dip p a in te r, oven tender, s ilk screen operator, p latin g machine loader, etching machine operator, degreaser, and cabinet retoucher. 7 Includes such occupations as statio n ary b o iler fireman, machine setup man, r e lie f operator, and cabinet repairman. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s ; based on inform ation obtained through fie ld v is its to electro n ics establishm ents. 37 Table 17. Women workers as percent of all workers in electronics manufacturing occupations, by major product category, mid-1962 Women as percent of a l l workers in occupation1 Military-space and industrialcommercial products Occupation All occupations...................... Nonproduction workers...................... Engineers................................. Technicians............................... Draftsmen................................. Administrative and executive......... ... Clerical and stenographic................ Production workers......................... Assemblers..... .......................... Inspectors and testers................... Processing and fabrication............... Craftsmen........ ........................ Shipping and receiving................... Materials handlers, including............ truck drivers..... ...................... Custodial and janitorial................. Consumer products Semicon ductors 2 20-30 2 48 (3) 15-16 (4 ) 8 2 2 60 25-4-5 50-90 20-40 25-30 4 - 2 0- 6 18 0 0 16 2 65 45-60 80 70 (3 ) 0 (3 ) 0 7-14 (3) 0 (?) (?) (3 ) (3 ) (*) (3 ) 70-72 90-100 90- 99 65- 90 0 (3) (3 ) 5 1 Two figures given in a column in d icate the range of the percents supplied by respon dents; 1 fig u re in d icates e ith e r th a t only 1 respondent supplied a percent figure o r th a t more than 1 respondent furnished the same percent. Figures have been rounded s lig h tly in some cases. 2 These fig u res, though based only on illu s tra tiv e data from a few fie ld v is its , are consistent w ith estim ates based on data published quarterly by the Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s in i t s Employment and Earnings se rie s, which indicate th a t in 1961 women rep re sented 30 percent of a ll employees in the m ilitary-space and industrial-com m ercial products category and 49 percent in the consumer products category. (See tab le 18.) 3 Not av ailab le. 4 Less than 0.5 percent. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s ; based on inform ation obtained through fie ld v is its to electro n ics establishm ents. 38 Table 18. Men and women workers in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 Product category and sex of worker T otal e lectro n ics employment............. Men............................................................... Women.................................................. • • • • M ilitary-space and in d u stria lcommercial products1 ............................ Men.................. • •. ............. ....................... Women.......................................................... Consumer pro d u cts.................................... Men............................................................... Women.......................................................... Components.................................................... Men.............................................................. Women.......................................................... Tubes.......................................................... Men.......................................................... Women...................................................... Other than tu b es.................................. Men.......................................................... Women...................................................... Number of workers (thousands) Percent of employment in product category 1958 1959 1960 1961 1970 1958 1959 1960 1961 1970 609.8 357.9 251.9 689.4 399.9 289.5 734.1 428.4 305.7 777.7 458.0 319.7 1,084.5 661.6 422.7 100.0 58.7 41.3 100.0 58.0 42.0 100.0 58.4 41.6 100.0 58.9 41.1 100.0 61.0 39.0 331.9 231.0 100.9 72.7 36.9 35.8 205.2 90.0 115.2 79.6 33.9 45.7 125.6 56.1 69.5 353.0 249.2 103.8 89.9 44.7 45.2 246.5 106.0 140.5 89.2 39.3 49.9 157.3 66.7 90.6 380.1 268.7 111.4 93.3 46.6 46.7 260.7 113.1 147.6 87.6 40.7 46.9 173.1 72.4 100.7 409.0 288.3 120.7 88.7 45.7 43.0 280.0 124.0 156.0 88.8 44.1 44.7 191.2 79.9 111.3 645.2 463.3 181.9 119.2 62.6 56.6 319.9 135.7 184.2 80.0 47.0 33.0 239.9 88.7 151.2 100.0 69.6 30.4 100.0 50.8 49.2 100.0 43.9 56.1 100.0 42.6 57.4 100.0 44.7 55.3 100.0 70.6 29.4 100.0 49.7 50.3 100.0 43.0 57.0 100.0 44.1 55.9 100.0 42.4 57.6 100.0 70.7 29.3 100.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 43.4 56.6 100.0 46.4 53.6 100.0 41.8 58.2 100.0 70.5 29.5 100.0 51.5 48.5 100.0 44.3 55.7 100.0 49.7 50.3 100.0 41.8 58.2 100.0 71.8 28.2 100.0 52.5 47.5 100.0 42.4 57.6 100.0 58.7 41.3 100.0 37.0 63.0 1 Because of the form in which the source data were av ailab le, estim ates could not be developed for the m ilitary space category sep arately from the industrial-com m ercial category. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal to ta ls . Source: Estim ates and projections developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s APPENDIX A. METHODOLOGY engaged p rim a rily in such activ ity .60 Even in these seven, som e w o rk ers should be excluded from any count of electro n ics em ploym ent because they a re engaged in the m anufacture of products which a re not ele c tro n ic .61 In in d u strie s only seco n d arily engaged in electro n ics m anufacturing, the m ajo rity of w o rk ers g en erally should be excluded. E lectro n ics m anufacturing em ploym ent is frequently equated w ith the sum of to tal em ploym ent in the seven SIC 4 -digit in d u strie s p rim a rily engaged in electro n ics production, but th is sum is only a m inim al m easu re because m any additional electro n ics w o rk ers are em ployed in SIC in d u stries not p rim a rily engaged in e le c tro n ics activity. B etw een 1958 and 1961, for exam ple, em ploym ent in the seven in d u strie s averaged approxim ately th re e fourths of the to tal electro n ics em ploym ent estim ated in th is study.62 Since the in d u stry em ploym ent s ta tistic s c u rre n tly available do not fu rn ish suffi ciently accu rate em ploym ent e stim a te s for purposes of th is study, an altern ativ e m ethod was adopted which u tilized electro n ic ship m ents sta tistic s and converted them into em ploym ent to tals by dividing into them sh ip m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee sta tis tic s . This m ethodology w ill be d escrib ed in two steps: (A) D erivation of electro n ics shipm ents e s tim ates and pro jectio n s; and (B) d erivation of electro n ics sh ip m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee e s tim ates and p ro jectio n s. This appendix d escrib es the p ro ced u res used to d e v e l o p estim a te s and p rojections of electro n ics em ploym ent and the d is tri bution of these estim ates and projections betw een nonproduction and production w o rk ers and betw een m en and wom en w o rk ers. The e m p l o y m e n t projections should be view ed only as indications of g en eral m agnitudes. Some of the h isto ric a l s e rie s upon which they a re based do not extend back m any y ears and would not n e c e ssa rily be too helpful if they did, since the p ast is an u n certain guide to the future in the rapidly changing electro n ics field. The p ro jectio n s, of co u rse, a re heavily influenced by the m ajor assum ptions used in deriving them . These assum ptions a re given in chapter 3 in the section on m eth odology. D escribed firs t in this appendix is the m ethodology used to derive em ploym ent estim a te s for the y ears 1958 to 1961 and p ro jectio n s for 1970. D escribed next are the p ro ced u res used to d istrib u te these estim ates and p ro jectio n s betw een non production and production w o rk ers and betw een m en and women w o rk ers. DERIVATION OF EMPLOYMENT ESTI MATES AND PROJECTIONS, BY MAJOR ELECTRONIC PRODUCT CATEGORY Although se v e ra l sta tistic a l se rie s on em ploym ent by in d u stry are a v a ila b le ,89 they do not provide data on electro n ics em ploym ent accu rate enough for this study. The data in these se rie s a re classified by SIC code. As noted in chapter 1, 2 dozen o r m ore of the m ore than 400 SIC 4 -digit m anufacturing in d u stries contain som e electro n ics activity, although only 7 a re Derivation of Electronics Shipments Esti mates and Projections. The shipm ents se rie s used in this study is that published by the E lectro n ic In d u stries A ssociation, a m ajor trad e asso ciatio n in the electro n ics 60 The seven are SIC industries 3651, 3652, 3662, 3671, 3672, 3673, and 3679. 61 In 1958, for example, the value of nonelectronic shipments ranged among the seven industries from 3 to 17 percent of the value of total industry shipments (U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958. MC 58(2)-36 D, table 5A (U.S. Bureau of the Census)). 62 Employment data for the seven industries are from the Employment and Earnings series of the Bureau of Labor Statis tics, and employment estimates developed for this study are shown in table 13. In the Employment and Earnings series, data for SIC 3651 and 3652 are combined a? are data for SIC 3671, 3672, and 3673: data for SIC 3662 and 3679 are shown separately. toThe U.S. Department of Labor regularly issues an employ ment series prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Employ ment and Earnings series) and another prepared by the Bureau of Employment Security (Employment and Wages series). Com parable series are published regularly by the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, singly in its censuses and surveys of manufactures and jointly with the Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, in the County Business Patterns series. 40 m anufacturing in d u stry .*65 The s e rie s is shown, for the y ears 1950 to 1962, in table A- l , in cu rren t dollar fig u res and by m ajor electro n ic product category. These fig u res w ere converted by the B ureau of L abor S tatistics, through p ro ced u res d escrib ed in the next section into "re a l" (that is constant dollar) values (also shown in table A -l). The conversion was m ade because em ploy m ent estim ates and p ro jectio n s, can be b e tte r derived from shipm ent values from which the influence of p rice changes is elim inated. space electro n ics shipm ents was that for F e d e ra l G overnm ent p u rch ases of goods and se rv ic e s for national defense.64 P ric e d eflato rs selected for in d u strial and co m m ercial electro n ics shipm ents con sisted of BLS w holesale p rice indexes for e le c tric a l m achinery and equipm ent; in te grating and m easuring in stru m en ts; sw itchg ear, sw itchboard, etc. equipm ent; and radio re c e iv e rs and phonographs. These indexes w ere converted from th e ir 1947-49 base to a I960 b ase. E ach index was w eighted by an estim ate of the relativ e im portance, based on value of shipm ents, of the indus Conversion of Shipments from Current to tria l and co m m ercial products for which it Constant Dollar Estimates. P ric e deflation was co n sid ered ap p ro p riate and the average would be a sim ple and relativ ely accu rate of the w eighted indexes becam e the p rice m a tte r if available p rice indexes w ere deflator for in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial e le c exactly specific to the m ajor electro n ic tro n ics as a whole. product categ o ries. This is not the case These p rice d eflato rs could be developed how ever, and the indexes selected are only roughly ap p ro p riate. This lim its the accu only for the y ears 1954 to I960. F o r 1950 ra c y of the constant d o llar estim ates shown to 1953, shipm ents data w ere grouped dif in table A -l, and although the estim ates a re feren tly from those for la te r y e a rs, and adequate for the purpose of approxim ating the w holesale p rice indexes cited above physical shipm ent tren d s, from which to could not be used. F o r 1961 and 1962, the ex trap o late pro jectio n s to 1970, they a re w holesale p rice indexes w ere not available not definitive m easu res of p rice changes at the tim e of th is study. P ric e d eflato rs and cannot provide definitive m easu res of for these y e a rs w ere obtained by ex tra p olating the 1954-60 deflator se rie s back to to tal output o r output p e r w orker. 1950 and forw ard to 1962. B ased on av ail C u rren t dollar shipm ent values for each able on p rice tre n d s, the I960 of the m ajor product categ o ries w ere de index evidence value was used for 1961 and was flated sep arately , and the resu ltan t con in creased by 2 palso ercen for 1962--le s s than stant dollar fig u res w ere added together to the estim ated annual int crease betw een 1950 obtain constant dollar estim ates for to tal and 1961.65 electro n ics shipm ents. M ilitary and space shipm ents w ere con The BLS w holesale p rice index for rad io s, v erted from c u rre n t to constant d o llars telev isio n sets, and phonographs was se through the use of two p ric e indexes, one lected as the m ost ap p ro p riate deflator for fo r m ilita ry electro n ics shipm ents and the consum er electro n ics shipm ents. This index other for civilian space electro n ics ship was converted from its 1947-49 base to a m en ts. The p ric e deflator considered m o st 1960 b ase. No w holesale p rice indexes w ere ap p ro p riate for m ilita ry electro n ics ship available beyond I960, and values for 1961 m ents w as that co n stru cted for in d u strial and 1962 w ere derived by extrapolating the and co m m ercial electro n ic products (de index*s 1950-60 tren d , which was downward, scrib ed la te r), the underlying assum ption 64Index values were derived from Economic Report of the being that p rice m ovem ents fo r the two President, January 1961, tables C -l and C-2, and Economic product categ o ries a re sim ila r. The index Report of the President, January 1962, tables B -l and B-2. selected as the m ost ap p ro p riate for civilian 65Except for the 1960 indexes, which were available only as unpublished data at the time of this study, the BLS Wholesale Price Indexes used as price deflators came from Bureau of Labor Statistics publications. For Electrical Machinery and Equipment, indexes for 1954-56 were from BLS Bulletin 1214, Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes. 1954-56; for 1957 from BLS Bulletin 1235, Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes, 1957; and for 1958 and 1959 from BLS Bulletin 1295, Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes, 1959. BLS Bulletin 1295 was also the source for the 1954-59 values for the three other wholesale price indexes used. 65 This series was selected because of its comprehensive and detailed nature. It is prepared by the EIA*s Marketing Services Department, and is based on recurrent reporting from cooperat ing respondents and periodic surveys of electronics manufac turers, supplemented by material from the Bureau of the Census and the Business and Defense Services Administration, both of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Some of the data have since been slightly revised by the EIA, but too late for incorporation here. 41 at a constant p er annum ra te . Index num b e rs w ere not available for 1953 and 1954, and they w ere in terp o lated on the b asis of values for p r e c e d i n g and subsequent y e a r s .66* Since no ap p ro p riate index se rie s was available for electro n ic com ponents, a p rice index was co n stru cted . The ratio of com ponent shipm ents to end-product ship m ents in the base y ear I960 was applied to the constant d o llar value of end-product shipm ents in 1954, obtained through p ro ced u res d escrib ed e a rlie r, to derive a constant d o llar value of com ponent ship m ents for the sam e y ear. This procedure assu m ed the sam e ratio of com ponent to end-product shipm ents in 1954 as in I960. B ecause of the rap id ly changing product m ix in com ponent shipm ents, 19 5 4 --the y ear in which sem iconductors w ere m a r keted in sizable volum es for the firs t tim e -w as co n sid ered the e a rlie s t year for which th is assum ption could be validly m ade, and no index values for com ponents w ere a t tem pted for y ears before 1954. A p ric e index for 1954 was calculated by dividing the derived constant dollar value of com ponents shipm ents in 1954 into the c u rre n t d o llar value of such shipm ents. This 1954 index and the I960 b a se -y e a r index of 100 provided two points betw een w hich to connect a p rice tren d line. This tren d line showed a decline of 14.9 p ercen t betw een the 2 y e a rs. Index values for 1955 to 1959 w ere co n stru cted by interpolating a constant ra te of decline along this tren d line; each value re p resen ted a p rice de c re a se of 2.34 p ercen t from that for the preceding y ear. The index value co n stru cted for 1961 assum ed a d ecrease from I960 of about tw ice th is average annual ra te of decline, because of a sharp drop in sem i conductor p ric e s during 1961. No p rice index could be co n stru cted for 1962 because c u rre n t d o llar shipm ents data w ere not available at the tim e of the study. C onstant d ollar estim ates for re p la c e m ent and original-equipm ent com ponent shipm ents w ere obtained by using the sam e p ric e d eflato rs as those for com ponent shipm ents as a whole. Except for the 1960 index value, which is a preliminary figure from Monthly Labor Review, November 1961, index values are from BLS bulletins. Those for 1950-52 and 1955-58 are from BLS Bulletin 1257, Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes, 1958 and that for 1959 from BLS Bulletin 1295, op. cit. Projections of Constant Dollar Shipments. These p ro jectio n s, shown in table A -l, are for 1970. They w ere developed sep arately for each m ajor electro n ic product category and added together to obtain p ro jectio n s for the en tire in d u stry . They assu m e continu ance of the sam e sh ip m en ts-to -in v en to ry relatio n sh ip s that existed during the y ears covered by the h isto ric a l se rie s used for the p ro jectio n s. The following sections de scrib e the m ethodology used. D erivation of P ro jectio n fo r M ilitary and Space E lectro n ics Shipm ents. Although the future tren d of m ilita ry space electro n ics shipm ents is subject to m any u n c e rta in tie s, pro jectio n s of this m arket, which accounts for half o r m ore of all electro n ics sales, are esp ecially v ital for developing p ro je c tions of m anpow er req u irem en ts in e le c tro n ics m anufacturing. The F e d e ra l Gov ernm ent is v irtu ally the only cu sto m er for m ilita ry and space products; its outlays depend on m any fa c to rs, such as the in te r national situation, the state of m ilita ry technology, and national goals concerning the exploration and use of space. B asic assum ptions concerning the co u rse of these facto rs during the 1960*3 a re cited e a rlie r in th is appendix. By 1970, m ilita ry and space e lectro n ics shipm ents a re expected to ris e to $10.7 billion in constant I960 d o llars (table A -2, colum n 8). This p ro jectio n w as derived firs t on a fisc a l y ear b asis (table A -2, colum n 7) and then tra n sla te d to a calen d ar y ear b a sis, for co m p arab ility w ith p ro je c tions for other m ajo r electro n ic product categ o ries. The p ro jectio n was derived by adding together pro jectio n s of electro n ics expenditures by both the D epartm ent of D efense (DOD) and the civilian space agency (NASA). In te rm s of table A -2, the data in colum n 7 re p re se n t the sum of the fig u res in colum n 4 (DOD electro n ics expenditures) and colum n 6 (NASA electro n ics expendi tu re s). DOD and NASA electro n ics expendi tu re s a re tre a te d in this study as c o te rm i nous w ith m ilita ry and space electro n ic shipm ents, since these two F e d e ra l agencies account for v irtu ally all expenditures for m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic s. Only re la tively sm all am ounts for space electro n ics a re accounted fo r by other F e d e ra l agencies, such as the A tom ic E nergy C om m ission, the F e d e ra l A viation Agency, and the N a tional B ureau of Standards, and by priv ate e n te rp rise engaged in space com m unications sy stem s. 42 The assum ption of $53 billion for DOD m ilita ry expenditures for 1970 is higher than the estim ate of $49 billion for 1970 which would re su lt from extrapolating a stra ig h t-lin e tren d fitted to DOD m ilita ry expenditures for the y ears 1955 to 1963. The 1955-63 data do not lend them selves w ell to a straig h t line form ula, in view of a b reak in the tren d , w ith relativ ely stable expenditure lev els betw een 1955 and I960 and ra th e r rapid grow th betw een I960 and 1963. The following p ro ced u res w ere used to derive the 1970 p rojections in colum ns 4 and 6, table A -2, and to convert the fisc a l /e a r figures in colum n 7 of that table to the calen d ar year fig u res in colum n 8. P ro jectio n of POD electro n ics expendi tu re s (colum n 4, table A -2), Two c o rre la tions w ere m ade for th is pro jectio n of $9.0 billion for 1970. F irs t, a le a st sq u ares straig h t line was fitted to DOD electro n ics expenditures for the y ears 1955 to 1963 (colum n 4) a n d extrapolated to 1970 (m ethod 1). Second, a straig h t line was fitted to the p ercen t which DOD electro n ics expenditures for the y ears 1955 to 1963 (colum n 4) w ere of DOD expenditures for m ilita ry functions in the sam e y ears (col um n 2). This tren d line w as extrapolated to 1970, and the p ercen t that resu lted was applied to the 1970 pro jectio n in colum n 2, derived, as d escrib ed la te r, to develop a 1970 p ro jectio n fo r DOD electro n ics expend itu re s (m ethod 2). C oefficients of c o rre la tion w ere +.99 for m ethod 1 and +.96 for m ethod 2 .67 The p ro jectio n selected for th is study lay betw een the two p rojections d escrib ed . P ro jectio n of NASA electro n ics expendi tu re s (colum n 6, table A -2 ). E stim ates and projections of NASA electro n ics expendi tu re s (colum n 6) w ere derived by c alcu lat ing them at roughly one-fourth of estim ates and pro jectio n s fo r NASA to tal expenditures (colum n 5). This pro p o rtio n w as used b e cause it is estim ated that about half of NASA's total expenditures a re d isb u rsed to electro n ics m anufacturing estab lish m en ts for space re se a rc h , developm ent, and p ro cu rem en t,68 and "approxim ately fifty cents of ev ery d o llar spent for space system s goes into e le c tro n ic s ." 69 The estim ates of NASA total expenditures for fisc a l y ears 1958 to 1963 a re based on F e d e ra l budget a ry inform ation, and the pro jectio n for 1970 of $6.0 billion, in constant I960 d o llars, is based on inform ed opinions of governm ent and in d u stry p e rso n n e l.70 On the b asis of inform ed opinion of in d u stry and governm ent p erso n n el as w ell as lite ra tu re in the field, it was assum ed that DOD expenditures for m ilita ry functions would rise to roughly $53 billion by 1970, in constant I960 d o llars (colum n 2). To check on the reaso n ab len ess of th is assu m p tion, the h isto ric a l relatio n sh ip betw een these expenditures and G ross N ational P roduct (GNP) w ere analyzed. A le a st sq u ares tren d line was fitted to the p e r cents which DOD expenditures for m ilita ry functions w ere of GNP, for the y ears 1955 to 1963 (colum n 3), and extrapolated to 1970. The re su lta n t p roportion of 7.0 p e rcen t--w h ich assu m es a continued decline in the ratio of DOD expenditures for m ili ta ry functions to G N P--w hen applied to the GNP p ro jectio n of $755.1 billion for 1970 (colum n 1), re su lts in an estim ate of DOD m ilita ry expenditures for 1970 of $53 billion. C onversion from fisc a l to calen d ar year b asis (colum ns 7 and 8, table A -2). F o r the y ears 1955 to 1963, this conversion was based la rg e ly on estim ates of the E le c tronic In d u stries A ssociation(E IA ) of m ili ta ry electro n ic shipm ents, which a re av ail able on a calen d ar year b a sis as w ell as the fisc a l y ear b asis shown in table A -2, colum n 4. The EIA calen d ar y ear estim ates w ere deflated to constant I960 d o llars with the sam e p rice index used to deflate the 68 This estimate is based on the opinions of government and industry personnel. As earlier noted, electronics employment in this study relates to manufacturing industries and not to the Armed Forces, the Federal Government, universities, and non profit research centers. 88 “ Electronics in Space,** by James E. Webb, Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Elec tronic Age. New York, autumn 1961, p. 11. 70 For examples of relevant statements to this effect, see Independent Offices Appropriations for 1963, Hearings before a Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives, 87th Cong., 2d. sess., pt. HI, p. 443; and “ The $ 50-Billion Space Push,** Missiles and Rockets, Wash ington, D.C., Nov. 27,1961, pp. 46-49. 67 These simple correlations were checked with multiple cor relations. which resulted in similar coefficients of correlation. The multiple correlations were (1) DOD electronics expenditures for 1955 to 1963 (column 4) with DOD military expenditures for the same years (column 2) and time; and (2) the percents which DOD electronics expenditures were of DOD military expendi tures, for 1955 to 1963, with DOD military expenditures for the same years (column 2) and time. 43 T hree of the s e rie s showed a close r e la tionship w ith in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ia l ship m ents: K ilow att-hours of e le c tric ity , GNP, and the FRB in d u stria l production index. C oefficients of c o rre la tio n w ere +.95, + .94, and +.89, resp ectiv ely . T rend lin es w ere fitted to the plotted points by v isu al in sp ec tion in each of these th ree sc a tte r dia g ram s. EIA fisc a l year e stim a te s, and added, for the y ears since 1958, to co n stan t-d o llar NASA electro n ics expenditures. The r e sultant sum s re p re se n t the calendar year estim a te s of m ilita ry and space electronic shipm ents shown in table A -2, colum n 8. The fact that NASA electro n ics expendi tu re s w ere on a fisc a l y ear b a sis did not introduce a larg e e rro r because of th e ir com paratively sm all size. The 1970 p ro jection on a calen d ar y ear b a sis was de riv ed by applying to the I960 calendar y ear estim ate of m ilita ry and space ele c tronic shipm ents ($5.10 b illio n --ta b le A -2, colum n 8) the p ro jected in crease of 110 p ercen t in such shipm ents betw een fisc a l y e a rs I960 and 1970 (colum n 7). The tren d lin es w ere extrapolated to 1970, and from them in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial shipm ents fo r 1970 w ere pro jected , after adjustm ents to re fle c t expected changes in h isto ric a l relatio n sh ip s betw een electro n ics shipm ents and each of the th ree s e rie s . P ro jectio n s w ere extrapolated to 1970 by m eans of sc a tte r diag ram s for the y ears 1950 to 1960 betw een GNP and the FRB index and betw een GNP and kilow att-hours of e le c tric ity . A tren d line w as v isu ally fitted to the plotted points in each diagram and extended to 1970, on the b a sis of the GNP p ro jectio n for 1970 (alread y av ail a b le --se e table A -2). A s a check on the re su lts of these p ro ced u res, o th er sc a tte r d iag ram s w ere m ade, for exam ple, betw een the FRB index and new plant and equipm ent expenditures. D erivation of P ro jectio n for In d u strial and C o m m ercial E lectro n ics Shipm ents. The 1970 projection for in d u strial and com m e rc ia l electro n ics shipm ents of $4.1 b il lion, in constant I960 d o llars, assu m es a low er ra te of grow th for these shipm ents during the re s t of the 1960fs than during the 1950-62 period (table A -l). To develop the projection, in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial ship m ents in constant I960 d o llars, alread y available in table A -l, w ere c o rre la te d with o th er se rie s whose m ovem ent m ight logi cally be related to o r asso ciated with th e ir m ovem ent. The re su lts w ere then m odified in the light of inform ed judgm ents about the future co u rse of these relatio n sh ip s. D erivation of P ro jectio n for C onsum er E lectro n ics S hipm ents. The 1970p rojection for consum er electro n ics shipm ents, $3.5 billion in constant I960 d o llars (table A -l), was m ade in the sam e way as that for in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial products, that is, by co rrelatin g consum er shipm ents with other se rie s whose m ovem ent m ight logically be related to o r asso ciated with th e ir m ovem ent and m odifying the re su lts in the light of in form ed judgm ents concerning the future co u rse of th ese relatio n sh ip s. The s e rie s w ith which in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ia l shipm ents w ere c o rre la ted are am ong those liste d in table A -3 for the y ears 1950 to I960, the la tte r y ear being the la te st for which data w ere available at the tim e of this study. The se rie s which seem ed logically re la te d to o r asso ciated w ith in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial electro n ics shipm ents and th erefo re c o rre la te d with them w ere the following: GNP; g ro ss p r i vate dom estic investm ent; p ro d u c e rs1 d u r able equipm ent; expenditures for new plant and equipm ent; the F e d e ra l R eserv e B oard (FRB) index of in d u strial production; and kilow att-hours of e le c tric ity produced by o r sold to in d u strial and co m m ercial e s tab lish m en ts. The se rie s with w hich consum er ship m ents w ere c o rre la te d a re am ong those listed in table A -3. They co n sist of GNP; p erso n al consum ption expenditures; ex penditures for fu rn itu re and household equipm ent; expenditures for radio and TV rec e iv e rs, etc.; and num ber of p rim a ry fam ilies--h u sb an d and wife p re se n t. G raphic co rrelatio n s in the form of sc a tte r d ia g ram s w ere p rep ared , in which data for the y ears 1950 to I960 for each of the se rie s w ere plotted against consum er product shipm ents fo r the sam e y e a rs. Except in the case of fu rn itu re and household equip m ent expenditures, all the sc a tte r diagram s G raphic c o rre la tio n s in the form of sc a tte r diag ram s w ere p rep ared , in which data for the y ears 1950 to I960 for each of the se rie s w ere plotted against in d u strialco m m ercial shipm ents for the sam e y e a rs. 44 showed a close re la tio n sh ip 71 and tren d lin es w ere fitted visu ally to the plotted points. P ro jectio n s for 1970 w ere next developed fo r each of the se rie s , with the help of w hich consum er electronic shipm ents w ere p ro jected for the sam e y ear. A p ro jectio n for 1970 was alread y available fo r GNP in constant I960 d o llars (table A -2). A sc a tte r diagram was m ade fo r the y ears 1950 to I960 betw een GNP and one of its com po n e n ts--p e rso n a l consum ption expenditures. The tren d line fitted v isu ally to the plotted points in the diagram was extended, on the b a sis of the GNP projection, to 1970. A p ro jectio n estim ate for p erso n al consum p tion expenditures w as then determ ined from th is extrapolated line. The sam e basic m ethod was used to derive pro jectio n s for radio and TV re c e iv e rs, etc., except that th is se rie s was c o rre la te d with fu rn itu re and household equipm ent expenditures ra th e r than with GNP. P ro jectio n s for 1970 for p rim a ry fam ily form ations w ere av ail able from a C ensus B ureau so u rc e .72 end-product shipm ents anticipated for 1970, provided a p ro jectio n for com ponents ship m ents for that y ear. P ro jectio n s of 1970 shipm ents of re p la c e m ent p a rts w ere developed through the use of sc a tte r d iag ram s co rrelatin g shipm ents of (1) end products w ith replacem ent p a rts, and (2) com ponents with rep lacem en t p a rts. H isto rical shipm ents data for these c o rre lations a re available in constant d o llar values in table A - l.74 T rend lin es w ere fitted freehand to these data and ex trap o lated to 1970 on the b asis of p ro jectio n s for that y ear for end-product and com po nents shipm ents, derived through p ro c e dures alread y d escrib ed in th is and im m e diately preceding sectio n s. The pro jectio n s selected for rep lacem en t p a rts re p re se n te d the m idpoint betw een the extrapolated tren d lin es, which w ere sim ila r to one another. The p ro jectio n for 1970 shipm ents of original-equipm ent com ponents w as derived as the p ro jected difference betw een ship m ents of to tal com ponents and of re p la c e m ent p a rts . D erivation of P ro jectio n for E lectronic Com ponents Shipm ents. The p ro jectio n developed fo r 1970 for electronic com po nents shipm ents, in constant I960 d o llars, is $5.49 billion, of which $1.50 billion is fo r replacem ent p a rts and the re s t for original-equipm ent com ponents (table A -1). The firs t step in developing these p ro je c tions was to com pute the pro p o rtio n which com ponents w ere to end products in I960. This proportion (33.7 p e rc e n t--c a lc u la te d from sta tistic s in table A- l ) is expected to d ecrease during the 1960*s, and although any estim ate of the extent of the d ecrease m ust be tre a te d as only a broad approxim a tion, the ratio p ro jected for 1970 fo r this study re p re se n te d a slight decline, to 30 p e rc e n t.73 This proportion, m ultiplied by Derivation of Electronics Shipments-PerEmployee E s t i m a t e s and Projections. S hipm ents-per-em ployee e s t i m a t e s and p ro jectio n s w ere developed for the study on the b asis of product shipm ent analyses which appear in the 1958 C ensus of M anu fa c tu re s .75 The 1958 C ensus is the m ost recen t com plete count of m anufacturing in the United States; leg islatio n au th o rizes a census of m anufactures ev ery 5 y e a rs. Annual surveys a re conducted in the in te rcen sal y ears, but they a re m ade on a sam ple b asis and do not include the detailed an aly sis of product shipm ents contained in the C ensus volum es and needed for the m ethodology used h e re . The derivation of sh ip m e n ts-p e r-e m ployee fig u res w as m ade on the b asis of the 20 SIC 4-digit in d u strie s which rep o rted fo r 1958 at le a st $25 m illion in electro n ics shipm ents each. T hese 20 in d u stries, are believed to account fo r n e a rly a ll electronic s 71 Coefficients of correlation for the relationship between consumer electronic shipments and the other series were as follows: With personal consumption expenditures—+.89; with expenditures for radio and TV receivers and with number of primary families—+.85 in each case; and with GNP—+.83. 77 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 90, released Dec. 29,1958, table 5, Series B projections. w One major reason behind the projection of a decreasing ratio ,of components to end products is that the replacement rate of components appears to be trending downward with the growing use of solid state components and the decreasing rela tive importance of electron tubes. Another is the increasing versatility and efficiency of components, which has tended to lower the proportion which their value represents of total end-equipment value. 74Coefficients of correlation were +.95 for the relationship between end products and replacement parts and +.91 for the relationship between components and replacement parts. 75 The Census statistics used appear in U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958, Vol. II, Industry Statistics, tables 5A, 5B, 6A, and 8. In the case of one industry— SIC 3571—the Census table comparable to table 6A in other industries was numbered table 6, and, in the absence of any table 8, table 4 was used for employment totals. 45 shipm ents. In seven of these in d u stries, electro n ics shipm ents in 1958 rep resen ted half o r m ore of the value of the industry* s to tal shipm ents; betw een 1958 and 1961, as noted e a rlie r in this appendix, em ploym ent in these seven in d u stries averaged about th re e -fo u rth s of the total electro n ics em ploym ent estim ated in this study. SIC 4-digit industries with at least $25 million in electronics shipments each, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments (1958 data) Industry Number Industry title 3651 • . • .Radio and television receiving sets, except com munication types 3652 . . . .Phonograph records1 3662 • • • .Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detection equipment and apparatus 3671 . . . .Radio and television receiving type electron tubes, except cathode ray 3672 • • • .Cathode ray picture tubes 3673 • • • .Transmitting, industrial, and special purpose elec tron tubes 3679 • • • .Electronic components and accessories, not else where classified 1 Phonograph records are not uniformly considered to be an electronic product. They are treated as electronic in this report chiefly because the shipments estimates of the report are based upon figures of the Electronic Industries Association which include phonograph records. SIC 4-digit industries with at least $25 million in electronics shipments each, and with electronics shipments representing less than half of the value of total shipments (1958 data) Industry Number Industry title 19251. . . .Guided missiles, complete 3571 • • • .Computing and accounting machines, including cash registers 3611 • • • .Electric measuring instruments and test equipment 3622 • • • .Industrial controls 3661 • • • .Telephone and telegraph apparatus 3693 . . . .RadiographicX-ray, fluoroscopic X-ray, therapeutic X-ray, and other X-ray apparatus and tubes 3721 • • • .Aircraft 3722 • . • .Aircraft engines and engine parts 3729 . • • .Aircraft parts and auxiliary equipment, not else where classified 3811 • • • .Engineering, laboratory, and scientific and research instruments and associated equipment 3821 • . • .Mechanical measuring and controlling instruments, except automatic temperature controls 3842 • • • .Orthopedic, prosthetic, and surgical appliances and supplies 3931 . , . .Musical instruments and parts i This industry is a special Census grouping, and is part of SIC industry number 1929--Ammunition, not elsewhere classified. The firs t procedure was to determ ine the p ro p o rtio n of to tal shipm ents which was electro n ic in each of the 20 SIC 4 -digit 46 in d u strie s. Shipm ents of each in d u stry are divided in the C ensus s ta tistic s into th ree groups: (1) P ro d u cts c la ssifie d in that in d u stry and th erefo re p rim a ry to it;76 (2) products c lassified in other in d u stries (sec ondary products); and (3) m iscellaneous receip ts for co n tract and com m issio n work, sales of products bought and re so ld without fu rth e r m anufacture, etc. The p rim a ry products category, quanti tativ ely the la rg e st, w as the m ost read ily allocable as betw een electro n ic and non electro n ic item s since the g re a te st am ount of C ensus d e ta il--to a 7 -digit le v e l--is provided for it. The chief m ethodological problem was that the p rim a ry product ship m ents fo r which detail is given a re those of all m anufacturing estab lish m en ts, which m ay include som e estab lish m en ts not c la s sified in the 4 -digit SIC in d u stry being analyzed. It w as th erefo re assum ed, after determ ining the p ercen t of all p rim a ry products which was electro n ic, that the sam e pro p o rtio n applied to the p rim a ry products of the 4 -digit SIC in d u stry being analyzed. This assum ption was g en erally fa irly accu rate since m ost of the in d u stries being analyzed accounted for 80 p ercen t or m ore of all the products shipped in the United States which w ere p rim a ry to th em .77* F u rth e rm o re , in the case of the seven 4 -digit in d u stries p rim a rily engaged in electro n ics m anufacturing and accounting for m ost electro n ics em ploym ent, this a s sum ption was not req u ired since all th e ir p rim a ry products w ere known to be e lec tro n ic and no allocation pro ced u re was n e c e ssa ry . Although the secondary products category g en erally could be allocated betw een e lec tronic and nonelectronic, som etim es this could be done only in an approxim ate way. E stim ating w as often req u ired for various reaso n s, such as the existence of gaps in C ensus data to avoid disclosing inform ation for individual com panies. The m iscellaneous receip ts category, which was quantitatively 76According to the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958, Vol. II, “ The group of products assigned to an industry is said to be ’primary* to that industry.. • .an establishment is classified in a particular industry if its pro duction of the primary products of that industry exceeds in value its production of products of any other single industry.** 77In more technical language, the “ coverage ratio** of these industries was 80 percent or more. According to the Bureau of the Census, ibid., a coverage ratio is “ theproportion of primary products shipped by the industry to total shipments of such products by all manufacturing industries.** quite sm all relativ e to the other two c a te g o rie s, could not be allocated betw een e le c tro n ic and nonelectronic activ ities because of insufficient C ensus detail. m ajor product category. T hese estim ated shipm ent in c re a se s w ere different for each category, reflectin g v ariatio n s in such things as production p ro c e sse s, technologi cal developm ents, and R&D activ ity . The in c re a se s for the product categ o ries w ere so calculated, how ever, that th e ir average, w eighted according to the estim ated value of shipm ents of these categ o ries for the y ears 1959-61 and 1970, approxim ated a p er annum in c re a se of 2.9 p ercen t com pounded. This is equal to the estim ated rate of annual in c re a se over the 1947-60 period in m anufacturing output p e r m an h o u r,79 and assu m es no changes in hours w orked p er em ployee. A fter determ ining by the above p ro c e d u res the proportion of to tal shipm ents w hich was electronic in each of the 20 SIC 4 - digit in d u strie s,78 the next step w as to m ultiply this proportion by to tal em ploy m ent in the in dustry. The resu ltan t product re p re se n te d our estim ate of the num ber of w o rk ers in that in d u stry engaged in e le c tro n ic s m anufacturing. This equating of shipm ent ra tio s with em ploym ent ra tio s req u ired the assum ption that electro n ics and nonelectronics w o rk ers produce equal shipm ent values, and excluded the consid eratio n that electro n ics w o rk ers m ay be engaged p a rt tim e on nonelectronics ship m ents o r vice v e rsa . The 1947-60 annual in c re a se in m anufac turing output p e r m an-hour w as used as the b est available approxim ation of the annual in c re a se in shipm ents p e r em ployee in electro n ics m anufacturing, despite d iffer ences betw een the concepts of output p er m an-hour and shipm ents p er em ployee. Although the re su lta n t approxim ations of annual sh ip m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee in c re a se s a re considered adequate fo r th e ir intended purpose of a ssistin g in developing em ploy m ent e stim a te s and p ro jectio n s, they do not re p re se n t m easu res of changes in out put p er w orker and should not be construed as such. Dividing th ese electro n ics em ploym ent e stim a te s into the electro n ics shipm ent estim a te s used to derive them produced a nshipm ents p er electro n ics em ployee" value fo r each of the 20 SIC in d u stries. E ach in d u stry value w as w eighted acco rd ing to the ratio which electro n ics shipm ents in that in d u stry b ore to electro n ics ship m ents in the m ajor electro n ic product ca te go ry in w hich the in d u stry would be c la s s i fied. The w eighted values w ere used to obtain sh ip m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee estim ates fo r 1958 for each of the four m ajo r product categ o ries used in the study. These e s ti m ates w ere then deflated to constant I960 d o lla rs, w ith the sam e p rice indexes used to deflate to tal shipm ents fo r each m ajor product category. The next step was to develop com parable e stim a te s, in the sam e 1960 d o llars, for the other y ears for which em ploym ent estim ate s and pro jectio n s w ere m ade- - 1959, I960, 1961, and 1970. Table A -4 p re se n ts the sh ip m en ts-p erem ployee e stim a te s, developed by the above p ro ced u res, for each m ajo r product c a te gory for the y ears 1958, 1959, I960, 1961, and 1970. The e stim a te s derived fo r e le c tronic com ponents w ere used fo r the two breakdow ns of com ponents, o rig in al equip m ent and rep lacem en t p a rts . The table also shows to tal shipm ents for the sam e y e a rs, by product category; these shipm ent e s ti m ates a re based on EIA data and appear also in tab les 14 and A -l. 80 Dividing ship m ents p er em ployee into to tal shipm ents, by product categ o ry and y ear, re su lts in estim ates of electro n ics em ploym ent by category and y ear. T hese em ploym ent e s ti m ates, the end product of th is phase of the m ethodology, appear in table A -4. The significant c o rre c tio n needed to con v e rt 1958 sh ip m en ts-p er-em p lo y ee e s ti m ates into estim a te s for other y ears in volved adjusting for changes in shipm ents p e r w o rker. This was done by m ultiplying the 1958 fig u res by estim ated annual in c re a s e s in shipm ents p e r w orker in each 78Electronics shipments equaled primary plus secondary 79According to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates in U.S. Department of Labor News Release 4698, “ Output per Man-hour in the Private Economy in 1960,** August 18,1961, p. 2. "Except that in table A-4, unlike tables 14 and A -l, it was necessary to the methodology to include some double counting in the value of total electronics shipments (see explanation in footnote 3, table A-4). electronic-product shipments; total shipments equaled primary plus secondary product shipments and also miscellaneous re ceipts. 47 DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT ESTI MATES AND PROJECTIONS BETWEEN NONPRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION WORKERS AND BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN WORKERS,BY MAJOR ELEC TRONIC PRODUCT CATEGORY This m ethodology w as based on data for the y ears 1958 to 1961 published by the B ureau of L abor S tatistics in its E m ploy m ent and E arnings s e rie s , which provides em ploym ent sta tistic s by in d u stry not only fo r all em ployees but sep arately for p ro duction w o rk ers and for wom en w o rk ers. The data used covered the seven SIC 4digit in d u strie s p rim a rily engaged in e le c tro n ic s m anufacturing. The BLS em ploy m ent sta tistic s do not fu rn ish inform ation individually for each of the seven in d u stries; som e a re available only in com bined form (table A -5). SIC in d u strie s 3651 (radio and telev isio n receiving sets) and 3652 (phono graph reco rd s) a re com bined as SIC 365. SIC 3662 (radio and telev isio n com m unica tion equipm ent) is shown individually, but SIC 3671, 3672, and 3673 (each one co v er ing ce rta in types of electro n tubes) a re available only in com bined form . SIC 3679 (electronic com ponents other than tubes) is shown individually. SIC 3671, 3672, 3673, and 3679, com bined as SIC 367, re p re se n t the electro n ic com ponents and a c c e sso rie s group. To use the BLS em ploym ent sta tistic s fo r all em ployees, production w o rk ers, and wom en w o rk ers, it w as n e c e ssa ry to con v e rt the fig u res from SIC in d u stries to the m ajo r product categ o ries used in th is study. This was done by assum ing that SIC 365 was the sam e as the consum er products category, SIC 3662 the sam e as the m ilita ry -sp a c e and in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial product categ o ries com bined, and SIC 367 the sam e as the electro n ic com ponents categ o ry . B ecause of the form in which the BLS data are available, estim ates for the m ilita ry -sp a c e and in d u stria l-c o m m e rc ial product categ o ries could not be derived sep a ra te ly but only as a com bined group, while on the o th er hand, estim ates for com ponents could be broken down betw een tubes and com ponents other than tubes. The validity of these conversions is sup ported by the fact that, for ev ery y ear betw een 1958 and 1961, em ploym ent in each SIC group (365, 3662, and 367) equaled roughly th re e -fifth s o r m ore of the em ploym ent estim ated in th is study fo r the com parable product category. The conversion of SIC in d u stry groups to m ajor product categ o ries m ade it p o s sible to apply the p ercen ts in table A -5, which a re in te rm s of SIC groups, to the em ploym ent estim ates of th is study, which w ere developed by m ajor product category. In this way, breakdow ns of nonproduction and production and m en and w om en em ploym ent w ere derived by m ajo r product categ o ry for the y ears 1958 to 1961 (ch. 4, tab les 15 and 18). The data in table A -5 also p erm itted the calculation of p e r annum ra te s of change betw een 1958 and 1961 in nonproduction and production and m en and wom en w orker ra tio s. P ro jectio n s for 1970 w ere developed on the b a sis of these p e r annum ra te s of change. T hree sets of p ro jectio n s w ere m ade (table A -6). P ro jectio n A assu m ed no change in the ra tio s as they existed in 1961, and was calculated using th ese 1961 ra tio s. P ro jectio n C, to take the other ex trem e of the th ree p ro jectio n s, assum ed that the p er annum ra te of change in the pro p o rtio n s would continue unabated to 1970, and was calculated using that rate of change. P ro j ection B, the m iddle projection, assum ed change would continue to 1970 but not so rap id ly as betw een 1958 and 1961; the p ro jectio n was calculated by using approx im ately half the p er annum rate of change in the pro p o rtio n s betw een 1958 and 1961, with slight v ariatio n s from product categ o ry to product categ o ry as deem ed reaso n ab le in the light of any special influences ex pected to affect em ploym ent in that c a te gory. The B p ro jectio n s a re used in th is study; they appear in tab les 15 and 18. These pro jectio n s w ere decided upon as the m ost probable of the th re e , after an aly sis of the m any v a ria b le s expected to affect the in d u stry and its em ploym ent com position during the rem aining y e a rs of the 1960*s. It seem s unlikely that the 1960's w ill see the rap id changes of 1958-61 e ith e r sud denly stop and the ra tio s rem ain as they w ere in 1961 (P ro jectio n A), o r continue without dim inution (P ro jectio n C). It seem s even m ore unlikely that the 1958-61 tren d s w ill re v e rse th em selv es during the 1960's, o r continue at an a c c e lera te d ra te , so these p o ssib ilities w ere not p ro jected . 48 Table A-l. Year Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, estimates for 1950-62 in constant 1960 dollars and current dollars, and projections for 1970 in constant 1960 dollars All electronics shipments1 Military and space products2 Industrial nnri commer cial products Components Consumer products3 Total Used in original equipment Replace ment parts 1960 dollars (billions) 1950....... 1951....... 1952....... 1953....... 1954....... 1955....... 1956....... 1957....... 1958....... 1959....... 1960....... 1961....... 19625...... (*) (*) (*> (*) $5.77 6.11 7.12 8.01 8.18 9.16 9.95 10.75 (4 ) $0*67 1.35 2.53 3.15 3.09 3.13 3.74 4.20 4.43 4.72 5.10 5.49 6.10 $0.47 .58 .62 .71 .74 .84 1.03 1.33 1.38 1.59 1.85 2.20 2.45 $1.42 1.38 1.28 1.37 1.37 1.47 1.57 1.64 1.55 1.97 2.10 2.06 2.13 (*) <*) (*) <*) $1.75 1.96 2.08 2.28 2.21 2.77 3.05 3.44 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4 ) $1.18 1.29 1.30 1.44 1.39 1.89 2.15 2.44 (4 ) $0.57 .67 .78 .84 .82 .88 .90 1.00 (4) (4) (4) 1970....... 19.80 10.70 4.10 3.50 5.49 3.99 1.50 $1.16 1.26 1.73 $0.91 .91 1.33 $0.25 .35 .40 .50 .65 .75 .85 .90 .86 .90 .90 .95 1.00 Current dollars (billions) 1950....... 1951....... 1952....... 1953....... 1954....... 1955....... 1956....... 1957....... 1958....... 1959....... 1960....... 1961....... 19625...... $2.60 3.25 4.25 5.15 5.40 5.80 6.85 8.00 8.26 9.24 9.95 10.69 11.82 $0.50 1.05 2.05 2.65 2.70 2.80 3.45 4.10 4.42 4.74 5.10 5.49 6.22 $0.35 .45 .50 .60 .65 .75 .95 1.30 1.38 1.60 1.85 2.20 2.50 $1.50 1.40 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.60 2.00 2.10 2.05 2.10 (4) (4) 2.01 2.20 2.28 2.44 2.33 2.83 3.05 3.27 1.36 1.45 1.43 1.54 1.47 1.93 2.15 2.32 (4) (4) 1 Not included in this total is the value of components used in original equipment, because such components are al ready counted in the value of the end equipment of which they are a part. 2 Consists of expenditures for (1) military electronics research, development and procurement (exclusive of mainte nance work and services), except that for the years before 1961 most R&D expenditures are excluded, and (2) space elec tronics'research, development, and procurement. 3 Includes phonograph records. Excludes color television sets, except in projection for 1970. * Not available. 5 Estimated. Source: Current dollar figures are based pn estimates of the Electronic Industries Association, except that ship ments of military and space products include an addition estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for space elec tronics expenditures by the civilian space agency (the National Aeronautics and Space Administration), beginning with 1958 when that agency was established. The Bureau of Labor Statistics computed the constant dollar estimates for 1950-62 from the current dollar figures, and d e v e l o p e d the constant dollar projections for 1970 (see text of this appendix for methodology). 49 Table A-2. Selected data used to develop 1970 projection for military and space electronics shipments (Billions of 1960 dollars) Defense Department expenditures Year1 Gross National Product2 (i) Total3 Total as percent of GNP (3) (2) __ NASA expenditures For electronics* Total5 For electronics6 M (5) (6) .. D0D-NASA expenditures for electronics Fiscal year basis7 (7) (8) $3.09 3.13 3.74 4.20 4.43 4.72 5.10 5.49 6.10 6.70 10.70 „ 1954..... 1955..... 1956..... 1957...... 1958..... 1959..... 1960...... 1961..... 1962..... 1963..... $449.7 459.2 467.8 459.7 490.6 504.4 514.6 546.8 569.3 $42.9 41.0 42.0 41.4 42.3 41.2 42.5 46.1 47.1 9.5 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.6 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.2 $2.9 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.0 — $0.09 .15 .40 .73 1.27 2.20 — $0.02 .04 .10 .19 .32 .55 $2.90 3.30 4.00 4.32 4.54 5.00 5.29 5.92 6.55 1970..... 755.1 53.0 7.0 9.0 6.00 1.50 10.50 — — — — Calendar year basis6 1 Data in col. 1 and col. 8 are on calendar year basis. Data in all other columns are on fiscal year basis. (Fiscal year in the Defense Department and NASA runs from July 1 to June 30. Fiscal year 1955, for example, runs from July 1, 1954, to June 30, 1955.) 2 GNP for 1960 and earlier years, in 1960 dollars, were obtained from Economic Report of the President, January 1961, table C-2, and Economic Report of the President', January 1962, table B-l. GNP for 1961 in 1961 dollars— $521.3 billion— was converted to a 1960 dollar estimate using a derived price deflator of 101.3. Both the GNP figure and the price de flator for 1961 are from Economic Indicator s, March 1962, prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers. Estimates of 1962 and 1963 GNP, in 1960. dollars, were derived by increasing the 1960 GNP figure by 4.12 percent per annum compounded— the 1960-70 per annum rate of increase indicated by the GNP projections to 1970. This GNP projection to 1970 is from a BLS staff publication, Guide to Manpower— Challenge of the 1960s. p. 5. The BLS projec tion is in 1958 dollars, and was converted to 1960 dollars by using price deflators for GNP for the years 1958-60 from the July 1961 issue of Survey of Current Business, table 65. 3 D0D expenditures for military functions. Excludes military assistance, atomic energy, civil defense, and defenserelated services. Obtained in current dollars from the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), FAD Report 397-Fiscal Year 1963 (1), Jan. 18, 1962; figures for fiscal year 1962 and 1963 are estimates. Current dollar figures for fiscal year 1955 to fiscal year 1961 were converted to constant 1960 dollars by using the price index for Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense (from Economic Report of the President, January 1961, tables C-l and C-2; and Economic Report of the President. January 1962, tables B-l and B-2). Current dollar esti mates for fiscal year 1962 and 1963 were converted to constant 1960 dollars by assuming no change in the price index between 1961 and 1962 and a 1 percent increase between 1962 and 1963. Projection for 1970 was developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; see text of this appendix for methodology. * Consists of expenditures for military electronics research, development, and procurement (exclusive of maintenance work and services), except that for the years before 1961 most R&D expenditures are excluded. Current dollar estimates for fiscal year 1955-63 are from the Electronic Industries Association. They were converted to constant 1960 dollar es timates by using a price deflator constructed for industrial-commercial electronics products; the assumption was that price movements are similar for military and industrial-commercial electronics. (See text of this appendix for method ology for construction of industrial-commercial shipments price deflator.) Projection for 1970 was developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; see text of this appendix for methodology. 5 Expenditures in current dollars, actual for fiscal years 1958-61 and estimated for fiscal years 1962 and 1963, were obtained from the Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30. 1963. pp. 110 and 246. Con version to constant 1960 dollars was effected through use of the price index for Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense (see footnote 3 above for the source of this index). Projection for 1970 was developed by the BLS; see text of this appendix for methodology. 6 Consists of expenditures disbursed to electronics manufacturing establishments for space electronics research, de velopment, and procurement. Figures were developed by the BIS and equal roughly one-fourth of the figures in column 5; see text of this appendix for methodology. 7 Represents sum of cols. 4 and 6. 6 Converted from fiscal year basis by the BIS; see text of this appendix for methodology. Source: Developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. See table footnotes for sources and method ology. 50 Table A-3. Selected data used to develop 1970 projections for industrial-commercial and consumer electronics shipments [Dollar figures in billions of I960 dollars] Series National income accounts:1 Gross national product .... Personal consumption expenditures............ For furniture and house hold equipment........ For radio and TV re ceivers, records, and musical instruments.... Gross private domestic investment............ .. Producers' durable equipment............. 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 $362.3 $392.0 $406.8 $425.5 $416.8 238.7 240.8 247.0 258.9 262.3 282.0 15.1 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 $467.8 $459.7 $490.6 $504.4 291.3 299.1 302.0 319.3 328.9 17.3 18.0 17.6 17.5 19.0 18.8 $449.7 $459.2 15.1 14.2 14.3 15.4 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.6 66.7 69.2 60.7 61.4 58.9 74.7 74.3 69.8 58.2 72.9 72.4 25.9 26.7 26.5 27.4 25.3 27.4 30.3 29.9 23.6 25.9 27.5 Other series: Expenditures for new plant and equipment2............ 28.2 32.1 33.0 34.8 32.6 34.0 39.1 38.8 31.2 32.7 35.7 Federal Reserve Board index of industrial production (1957=100)3............... 74.5 80.8 83.8 90.8 85.4 96.0 99.3 100.0 92.9 104.9 108.0 Number of primary families— husband and wife present (thousands)4 ................ 34,075 34,378 35,138 35,560 37,043 37,711 37,967 38,420 (5 ) 21.2 23.6 24.9 28.0 38.9 38.3 42.1 Kilowatt-hours of electricity produced by or sold to in dustrial and commercial establishments (monthly average, in billions)6 ....... 35,875 h 36,266 29.3 34.7 37.7 45.4 1 National income accounts are from Economic Report of the President, January 1961, table C-2, and Economic Report of the President, January 1962, table B-l, except for personal consumption expenditures for (1) furniture and household equipment, and (2) radio and TV receivers, records, and musical instruments, which were separately derived. Current dollar personal consumption expenditures for furniture and household equipment are available in Economic Report of the President. January 1962, table B-9; they were converted to constant 1960 dollars using price deflators available, for 1950-56, in U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Income and Output (A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business), table VII-13, and, for 1957-60, from Survey of Current Business, July 1961, table 70. The price deflators were in 1954- dol lars and were converted to 1960 dollars. Current dollar personal consumption expenditures for radio and TV receivers, records, and musical instruments were obtained, for 1950-57, from U.S. Income and Output, op. cit. table II-4, and, for 1957-60, from Survey of Current Business, July 1961, table 15. They were converted to constant 1960 dollars on the basis of unpublished data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. GNP is made up of 4 major components: Personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net ex ports of goods and services, and government purchases of goods and services. Data for only the first 2 of these 4 major components are shown in the table, the other 2 components being considered not relevant to the projections for this study. 2 Derived by deflating to constant 1960 dollars current dollar figures for new plant and equipment expenditures available in Economic Report of-the President, January 1962, table B-34. The deflation was made with the price index used to deflate producers' durable equipment (a subcomponent of gross private domestic investment, in the national in come accounts). This price index was computed for this study by dividing current dollar figures for producers' durable equipment by constant 1960 dollar figures, both sets of figures being available in Economic Report of the President, January 1961, tables C-l and C-2. 3 From Economic Report of the President, January 1962, table B-32. 4 From U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 94, re leased Aug. 24, 1959, table 4. Data are for March or April of each year. 5 Not available. 6 Calculated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Business Statistics, 1961 biennial edition, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, p. 126. Source: Developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. See table footnotes for sources and methodology. 51 Table A-4* Electronics shipments and shipments per employee (in constant 1960 dollars), and employment, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 All electronics shipments Military and space products Industrial and commercial products Consumer products Value of shipments per employee (1960 dollars): 1958................. 1959................. 1960................. 1961................. 1970................. $15,694 16,028 16,483 16,961 21,937 $18,037 18,423 18,837 19,399 23,327 $15,991 16,426 16,908 17,460 21,984 $21,320 21,913 22,509 23,224 29,362 $10,770 11,237 11,698 12,286 17,162 Value of shipments (billions of 1960 dollars): 1958................. 1959................. 1960................. 1961................. 1970................. 2 9.57 11.05 12.10 13.19 23.79 4.43 4.72 5.10 5.49 10.70 1.38 1.59 1.85 2.20 4.10 1.55 1.97 2.10 2.06 3.50 Employment (thousands): 1958................. 1959................. 1960................. 1961................. 1970................. 609.8 689.4 734.1 777.7 1,084.5 245.6 256.2 270.7 283.0 458.7 86.3 96.8 109.4 126.0 186.5 72.7 89.9 93.3 88.7 119.2 Item and year Components Total Original equipment Beplacement parts C1 ) <*) C1 ) (x ) (x ) (X) (x) (x ) t1 ) (X ) 2,21 2.77 3.05 3.44 5.49 $1.39 1.89 2.15 2.44 3.99 $0.82 .88 .90 1.00 1.50 205.2 246.5 260.7 280.0 319.9 129.5 168.1 183.8 198.6 232.5 75.7 78.4 76.9 81.4 87.4 1 Same as shipments-per-employee estimates for all components. 2 Figures in this column exceed comparable figures in tables 14 and A-l to the extent that they add in all components shipments, including those of original equipment components even though these are already included in end product ship ments. This double counting was necessary to derive shipments-per-employee estimates for the industry as a whole. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals. Source: Developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. See text of this appendix for methodology. 52 Table A-5. D istrib u tio n of employment between nonproduction and production workers, and women workers, in selected electro n ics manufacturing in d u strie s, 1958-61 Industry, and type and sex of worker1 Percent of industry Number of workers employment (thousands) 1958 1959 1960 19612 1958 1959 1960 19612 4-77.9 554.9 583.0 594.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 165.2 192.9 213.5 225.2 34.6 34.8 36.6 37.9 312.7 362.0 369.5 369.6 65.4 65.2 63.4 62.1 210.9 245.5 255.4 256.5 44.1 44.2 43.8 43.1 SIC 365, 3662, 367: t o ta l ............. Nonproduction workers................. Production workers....................... Women workers................. ................. SIC 365: Radio and TV receiving s e t s ...................................................... 104.4 114.4 111.5 113.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction workers................. 27.3 28.8 29.3 30.3 26.1 25.2 26.3 26.8 Production workers........................ 77.1 85.6 82.2 82.9 73.9 74.8 73.7 73.2 Women workers.................................. 51.4- 57.6 55.7 54.9 49.2 50.3 50.0 48.5 SIC 3662: Radio and TV communi cation equipm ent............................ 194.6. 229.2 246.3 254.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction workers............. .... 92.9 112.4 123.4 133.2 47.7 49.0 50.1 52.4 Production workers........................ 101.7 116.8 122.9 121.2 52.3 51.0 49.9 47.6 Women w o rk e rs................................ 59.1 67.4 72.2 75.0 30.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 SIC 367: E lectronic components and accessories• • • • • • • • • ............. 178.9 211.3 225.2 227.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction workers................. 45.0 51.7 60.8 61.7 25.2 24.5 27.0 27.2 Production workers........................ 133.9 159.6 164.4 165.5 74.8 75.5 73.0 72.8 Women workers...................... 100.4 120.5 127.5 126.6 56.1 57.0 56.6 55.7 SIC 3671-3: Electron tu b es........... 69.5 76.4 75.6 72.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction workers................. 17.9 20.3 21.7 21.6 25.8 26.6 28.7 30.0 Production workers........................ 51.6 56.1 53.9 50.4 74.2 73.4 71.3 70.0 Women workers.................................. 39.9 42.7 40.5 36.2 57.4 55.9 . 53.6 50.3 SIC 3679: Components other than tubes3............................................... 109.4 134.9 149.6 155.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction workers................. 27.1 31.4 39.1 40.2 24.8 23.3 26.1 25.9 Production workers........................ 82.3 103.5 110.5 115.0 75.2 76.7 73.9 74.1 Women workers.................................. 60.5 77.7 87.0 90.4 55.3 57.6 58.2 58.2 1 For d efin itio n of "production worker," as used by the Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s in co llectin g the data in th is ta b le , see tab le 15, footnote 1. Women workers are included in both the nonproduction and production worker figures • 2 Prelim inary. 3 Includes, according to Standard In d u stria l C lassificatio n Manual. 1957 ed itio n , spe c ia lty re sisto rs fo r electro n ic end products; so lid s ta te electro n ic devices and sim ilar devices; inductors, electro n ic transform ers, and capacitors; and other electro n ic compo nents, not elsewhere c la ssifie d . Note: Because of rounding, s u m s of individual items may not equal to ta ls . Source: U .S . D epartm ent of L ab o r, B ureau of L abor S ta tistic s, Em ploym ent and E arnings S tatistics for the United S tates. 1909-60 (B ulletin 1312, 1961J, pp. 196-201 (for data for 1958-60), and Em ploym ent and E arn in g s, F e b ru a ry 1962, tables B -2 and B -4 (for data for 196l). 53 Table A-6. Nonproduction and production workers, and women workers, in electro n ics m anufacturing, by product category, 3 projections for 1970 Product category, and type and sex of worker1 P rojections fo r 1970 Percent of employment Number of workers (thousands) in product category B B c A c A 1,084.5 1,084.5 1,084.5 100*0 100.0 100.0 456.1 516.0 54.6 591.6 47.6 42.1 568.3 57.9 628.2 52.4 45.4 492.7 427.9 39.0 39.5 38.6 422.7 418.4 T otal electro n ics employment Nonproduction workers......... Production workers............... Women workers.................... M ilitary-space and industrial-com m ercial products.. 100.0 100.0 645.2 645.2 645.2 100.0 52.4 Nonproduction workers......... 338.1 386.5 59.9 69.5 448.4 Production workers............... 47.6 196.8 40.1 30.5 307.1 258.7 Women workers.......................... 190.3 181.9 173.6 29.5 26.9 28.2 Consumer products............ .. .. . 100.0 100.0 119.2 119.2 119.2 100.0 Nonproduction workers......... 31.9 34.6 33.3 26.8 27.9 29.0 Production workers............. 84.6 71.0 87.3 85.9 73.2 72.1 Women workers.......................... 57.8 55.3 47.5 48.5 56.6 46.4 319.9 100.0 100.0 Components.................................... 319.9 319.9 100.0 86.1 26.9 33.9 Nonproduction workers • • • • • 108.6 30.1 96.2 Production workers............... 211.3 69.9 73.1 66.1 233.8 223.7 Women workers.......................... 179.8 189.5 57.6 184.2 56.2 59.2 Tubes............................................... 80.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction workers......... 24.0 30.0 37.8 30.0 37.5 47.2 Production workers............... 56.0 50.0 70.0 52.8 62.5 42.2 33.0 Women workers • ........................ 50.3 26.6 40.2 41.3 33.2 Other than tubes2...................... 239.9 239.9 239.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.9 Nonproduction workers......... 29.5 70.8 27.6 62.1 66.2 Production workers............... 177.8 169.1 70.5 74.1 72.4 173.7 Women workers.......................... 139.6 63.0 162.9 67.9 151.2 58.2 1 For d e fin itio n of "production worker," as used in co llectin g the BLS data upon which these projections are based, see tab le 15, footnote 1. Women workers are included in both the nonproduction and production worker fig u res. 2 For types of components included in th is category, see tab le A-5, footnote 3. Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal to ta ls . Source: Developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s . See te x t of th is appendix fo r methodology. 54 APPENDIX B. SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY I. Government Publications A. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics ••Defense Manpower Requirements in Electronics Production/* Manpower Report No, 12 (1952) ‘•Electronics Manufacturing Occupations,** Occupational Outlook Handbook. 1961 edition. Bulletin 1300 (1961)pp. 622-632. Employment and Earnings Statistics for the United States, 1909-60, Bulletin 1312 (1961 ),pp. 196-202. Employment and Earnings (monthly publication) . Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing, Bulletin 1072 (1952). ••Expansion in Electronics Employment,** Monthly Labor Review. February 1952, pp. 151-155. “ Indexes of Wholesale Prices, by Group and Subgroup of Commodities,** Monthly Labor Review, November 1961, table D-3. Output Per Man-Hour in the Private Economy in 1960, News Release USDL-4698, Aug. 18,1961. ••The Effect of the Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing,** Supplement No. 15 to the Occupational Outlook Handbook, May 1951. Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes: For 1954-56, Bulletin 1214 (1957), p. 364; for 1957, Bulletin 1235 (1958). p. 165; for 1958. Bulletin 1257 (1959), p. 277; and for 1959, Bulletin 1295 (1961), pp. 226, 228, and 245. B. U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census: . ••Home-Type Radio Receivers and Television Sets, Automobile Radios, Phonographs, and Record Player Attachments and Office, Computing, and Accounting Machines,** Current Industrial Reports, Annual Summary Reports, Series M 36 and M 35 R. ••Households and Families, by Type: 1950 to 1959,** Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 94, Aug. 24.1999. ••Illustrative Projections of the Number of Households and Families: 1960 to 1980,** Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 90, Dec. 29, 1958, p. 1. U.S, Census of Manufactures: 1939. Radio, Radio Tubes and Phonographs Industry, Vol. II, Pt. 2, table 2, p. 388. U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1947. Statistics by Industry, Vol. II, table 1, p. 739. U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958, Industry Statistics, Vol. 11,Pt. 2, Major Groups 29-39. 55 Business and Defense Services Administration: Electronic Components: Production and Related Data, 1952*59. October I960, "Electronics ,ft The U.S. Industrial Outlook for 1962, pp. 177-201. Microwave Components: Production and Related Data. 1958. March 1960. Semiconductors: U.S. Production and Trade. February 1961. Office of Business Economics: Business Statistics: 1961 edition, supplement to the Survey of Current Business, p. 126. Survey of Current Business. July 1961, tables 7,15, 65, and 70. U.S. Income and Output, supplement to the Survey of Current Business, November 1958, tables H-4 and VII-13. C. U.S. Department of Defense Order of Magnitude Data on Comparative Expenditures by Functional Title as if Fiscal Year 1963 Budget Structure had Been Adopted Circa 1948 (Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense, Comptroller), Fiscal Analysis Division Report 397-Fiscal Year 1963 (1), Jan. 18,1962. Prime Contract Awards for Fiscal Year 1962 Compared by State and Region. News Release No. 1569 (Office of Public Affairs), Sept. 29,1962. The Changing Patterns of Defense Procurement (Office of the Secretary of Defense), June 1962. D. U.S. Executive Office of the President Bureau of the Budget: Special Analysis of Federal Research and Development Program in the 1962 Budget, January 1961. Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1957 edition: and supplement published in 1958. Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1945 edition, Vol. I, Manufacturing Industries: Pt. I, Titles and Descriptions of Industries, 1945; Pt. 2, Alphabetic Index, 1947. The 1962 Budget Review, Autumn 1961. Other Executive Office publications: Economic Indicators, prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the 87th Cong., 2d sess. (Council of Economic Advisers), March 1962. Economic Report of the President, transmitted to the Congress January 1961, table C -l, p. 127; table C-2, p. 128; and table C-30, p. 162. Economic Report of the President, transmitted to the Congress January 1962, table B -l, p. 207; table B-2, p. 208; and table B-32, p. 245. E. The Congress of the United States Coordination of Information on Current Federal Research and Development Projects in the Field of Elec tronics, prepared for the Committee on Government Operations and its Subcommittee on Reorganization and International Organization (U.S. Senate, 87th Cong., 1st sess.. Sept. 20, 1961). 56 Department of Defense Appropriations for 1962, Hearings before the Subcommittee on Appropriations (U.S. Senate, 87th Cong., 1st sess. on H.R. 7851, Apr. 18-July 26, 1961). Impact of Automation on Employment, Hearings before the Subcommittee on Unemployment and the Impact of Automation of the Committee on Education and Labor (House of Representatives, 87th Cong., 1st sess., Mar. 8 and 29 and Apr. 18,1961). Independent Offices Appropriations for 1963, Hearings before the Subcommittee of Independent Offices of the Committee on Appropriations (House of Representatives, 87th Cong., 2d sess., Pt. 3, Apr. 16, 1962), pp. 406-499. F. National Science Foundation •‘Funds for Performance of Research and Development in American Industry, I960.0 Reviews of Data on Research and Development. No. 30, NSF 61-51, September 1961. Nonprofit Organizations—Expenditures and Manpower--1957, NSF 61-37, Washington, D.C., p. 31. Scientific and Technical Personnel in Industry. 1960. NSF 61-75, Washington, D.C., 1961, table A-l, p. 20. Scientific Research and Other Programs of Private Foundations, 1960, Preliminary Report No. 35, Wash ington, D.C., August 1962. The Long-Range Demand for Scientific and Technical Personnel—A Methodological Study, NSF 61-65, Washington, D.C., 1961. G. Other Government Publications A Study of Small Business in the Electronics Industry (Small Business Administration), 1962. Annual Procurement Report, Fiscal Year 1961 (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). Annual Reports of the Federal Communications Commission to the Congress of the United States: Second Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1936); Seventh Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1941); 22nd Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1956); and 27th Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1961). CAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation. 1955 edition, p. 31; 1956 edition, pp. 27-28 (Civil Aeronautics Administration). FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1961 edition (Federal Aviation Agency), p. 35. The Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30, 1963, pp. 110 and 246. 11. Books and Reports Electronic Industries 1962 Yearbook, Electronic Industries Association, Washington, D. C., September 1962. Electronic Industry 1960 Fact Book, Electronic Industries Association, Washington, D. C., 1960. Electronics, by James M. Hund, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1959. Electronics—1961 by Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith, Inc., New York, N. Y., 1961. Manpower Requirements in Electronics^ Manufacturing—Outlook to 1964 in the New York Metropolitan Area, (New York State Department of Labor, Division of Employment, Bureau of Research and Statistics), New York, December 1960. Markets of the Sixties, by the Editors of Fortune, Harper and Bros., New York, N.Y., 1960. 57 National Defense and Southern California, 1961-1970, a statement of policy by the Southern California CED Associates together with a research report by George A. Steiner* Southern California CED Associates* Los Angeles, Calif., December 1961. The California Economy—1947-1980* by Robert K. Arnold and others, Stanford Research Institute* Menlo Park* Calif., 1960. The Changing Structure of the U.S. Defense Market* by Murray L. Weidenbaum* published in Defense Mar keting in the 1960‘s , American Management Association, Inc., New York, N. Y.t pp. 7-31. The Electronics Industry in New England to 1970* by Albert H. Rubenstein and Victor L. Andrews* 1970 projection No. 4* Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, December 1959. ‘•The Small Electronics Firm,” Research for Industry* Vol. 13, No. 6, Stanford Research Institute* Menlo Park, Calif.,November-December 1961, pp. 10-12. III. Periodical Articles Automation* The Penton Publishing Co., Cleveland, Ohio. ‘•Automatic Diode Tester Improves Production Yields,” July 1961, pp. 67-69. “ Survey Report and Forecast on Automation Trends,” July 1961* pp. 35-50. Business Automation* O.A. Business Publications* Elmhurst, 111. •‘Projections *62,” January 1962, pp. 20ff. “Computer Census as of December 1961,” January 1962, p. 39. Business Week* McGraw-Hill Publishing Co*, New York* “Cheaper TV Set,” Apr. 7* 1962, pp* 134ff. “ Computers Start to Run the Plants,” Nov. 5, 1960* pp. 50ff. “Gaining Despite the Handicaps,” June 16. 1962* pp. 144-150. “ Midwest is the Big Loser,” June 30, 1962, pp. 38,40. “ Next Step Beyond Transistor,” Oct. 28, 1961* pp* 45ff. “ Space,” Aug. 19, 1961* pp. 75-96. “ The New Shape of Electronics,” Apr. 14* 1962, pp. 160-182. Data, Queensmith Associates* Washington, D.C. “ A Look at the NASA Budget Requests,” March 1962, pp. 19-23. “Calculated Predictions and an Analysis of the Next Ten Years in Defense Spending,“ September 1961, pp. 42-46. “ Defense R&D: A Major Growth Market,” September 1962, pp. 28-29* “ Military Markets,” September 1961, pp. 38-41* “Summarizing Defense Market Figures for Interpretation and Forecast,” June 1962, pp. 32-34. “ The Aerospace Market,” October 1961, pp. 20-26. 58 Electronic Age, Radio Corporation of America, New York* •'Electronics Earns its Wings/* Summer 1961, pp.7-10. “ Electronics in Space,** Autumn 1961, pp. 11-14. ••The Boom in Microwave,** Spring 1961, pp. 26-29, Electronic News, Fairchild Publications, Inc., New York. •‘Increased Effort Seen in Microminiaturization,** August 20, 1962, p. 99. “ New High Speed Tube Tester,’* Dec. 25, 1961, p. 1. “ Over 30 Stations on Air in Stereo,** Nov. 27, 1961, p. 28. Electronics, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., New York. “ Electronic Applications of Ultrasonic Welding,** June 29, 1962, pp. 112ff. “ Microminiaturization,** Nov. 25, 1960, pp. 78-108. “ Our Growing Markets,** Jan. 5, 1962, pp. 42-72. “ Our Industry Today and Tomorrow,** Jan. 6,1961, pp. 73-104. “ Production Machinery for the Electronics Industry,** Oct. 24, 1958, pp. 31, 73-84. “ Production Methods for Welded Circuits,** Feb. 1962, pp. 66,68. Electronics World. Ziff-Davis Publishing Co., New York. “Automated Testing Men & Machines,** June 1962, pp. 52ff. “ Electronics 20 Years Ago,** April 1960, pp. 40ff. “ Technicians in the Computer Industry,** June 1962, pp. 50-51, 84. “ The Citizen’s Band and Its Uses,** September 1960, pp. 54ff. “ The Technician: His Role in Industry,** March 1962, pp. 25-27. Fortune, Time, New York. “ Electronics Goes Microminiature,** August 1962, pp. 99ff. “ Hitching the Economy to the Infinite,** June 1962, pp. 123ff. “ Laying the Great Cable in Space,** July 1961, pp. 156ff. “ The Astonishing Computers,** June 1957, pp. 136ff. “ The Battle of the Components,** May 1957, pp. 135ff. “ The Coming Shakeout in Electronics,** August 1960, pp. 126ff. “ The Next Generation of Computers,** March 1959, pp. 132ff. “ The War of the Computers,** October 1959, pp. 128ff. “ What We Know About Solids is Getting Solid,** November 1961, pp. 150ff. 59 Missiles and Rockets, American Aviation Publications* Inc.* Washington, D.C, ‘•Lear Mass-Produces Microcircuits,” Jan. 29, 1962, pp. 34-35. “ The $50-Billion Space Push,** Nov. 27, 1961, pp. 46-49. “ $ 22-Billion Market Through 1970,“ Sept. 17, 1962, pp. 22-24. “ Zeus Resistors Made at Rate of One Each 3 Sec.,” July 10,1961, pp. 22-24. The New York Times “ Automatic Hands: Companies Step Up Use of Machines to Handle Tricky Assembly Jobs,” Oct. 25, 1960, p. 1. “ Automation Shown in Microcircuitry,’* Jan. 17, 1962, p. 48. “ Billions Awarded as U.S. Plans Shot at Moon,” Jan. 8, 1962, p. 118. “ Electronics Climbs to 5th Place on Nation’s Industrial Ladder,” Jan. 9,1961, pp. 41, 62. Other Periodicals “ A Growing Field. • • Solid Networks,” Electronic Industries. Chilton Company, Philadelphia, Pa., May 1961, pp. 120-122. “ Defense Spending: A Fourth Revision,” The Conference Board Business Record, National Industrial Conference Board, Incorporated, New York, November 1961, pp. 5-6. “ Electronics and Allied Industries,” Industrial Marketing (Directory Issue), Advertising Publications, Incorporated, Chicago, 111., June 23, 1961, pp. 141-161. “ Electronic Trends,” Ground Support Equipment, Sheffield Publishing Company, Incorporated, Wash ington, D.C., August/September 1961, pp. 21-25. “ Engineers of Progress,” Bell Telephone Magazine, American Telephone and Telegraph Co., Spring 1959, pp. 37-44. “ Environmental Control in Production and Maintenance of Electronic Components,” Military Systems Design, Instruments Publishing Co., Pittsburgh, Pa., September-October 1961, pp. 34-39. “ How To Forecast Defense Expenditures,” California Management Review, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif., Summer 1960, pp. 84-99. “ Marvels in Miniature,” Dun’s Review and Modern Industry, Dun and Bradstreet Publications Corp., New York, April 1962, pp. 39-41. “Microelectronics—A Staff Survey,” Electronic Equipment Engineering, Sulton Publishing Co., Inc., White Plains, N.Y., June 1961, pp. 50-52. “ Numerical Contouring Gets its Second Wind,” Machinery, The Industrial Press, New York, Decem ber 1961, pp. 113-120. “ Numerical Control by Punched Tape,” Instruments and Control Systems, The Instruments Publishing Co., Inc., Pittsburgh, Pa., September 1961, pp. 1643-1646. “ Small Worlds to Conquer,” Skyline, North American Aviation, Inc., Los Angeles, Calif., Vol. 20, No. 3, 1962, pp. 21-27. “ The Defense Industry as a Business,” May 1961, Signal, Armed Forces Communications and Elec tronics Association, Washington, D.C., pp. 24ff. 60 “ The Electronics Industry and Texas,** Texas Business Review, University of Texas, Austin, Tex., August-September 1960, Vol. XXXIV, No. 8-9, pp. 1-6. “ The Electronics Market," Electronics Buyers* Guide. McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., New York, July 20, 1961, pp. R1-R12. “ The ‘Shortage* of Engineers,** Review of Economics and Statistics. Harvard University Press, Cam bridge, Mass., August 1961, pp. 251-256. “ Why Research Spending Soars,** Challenge. Institute of Economic Affairs, New York University, New York, January 1961, pp. 42-45. 61 ☆ U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1963 O - 708-384
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