Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : November 2013

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • NOVEMBER 2013

Economic Activity
El Paso Business-Cycle Index

Economic activity in the El Paso metXX
ropolitan area continues to expand at a
moderate pace, according to the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas business-cycle
index. During October the index registered
1.7 percent annualized growth, compared
with an average of 1.9 percent growth over
the previous three months.

Index, January 2000 = 100

128!
124!
120!

116!
112!

108!
104!
100!
96!

'00!

'01!

'02!

'03!

'04!

'05!

'06!

'07!

'08!

'09!

'10!

'11!

'12!

'13!

Despite a small contraction in U.S. indusXX
trial production during October, maquiladora payrolls in Ciudad Juárez, México,
continue to feel the effect of the previous
increase in U.S. industrial production. In
addition, the local economy continues to
be negatively impacted by recent cuts to
government expenditures.

Labor Market
Employment Growth
(Month-over-month annualized rates)
El Paso
Nonfarm employment
Goods producing
Construction, mining & natural res.
Manufacturing
Services providing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Educational & health services
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Unemployment rate
Midland-Odessa
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment rate
Las Cruces
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment rate

NOTE: Seasonally adjusted.

May-13
0.0
-3.8
0.0
-6.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.7
0.0
0.0
12.2
-3.5
9.3

Jun-13
-3.7
-3.8
9.6
-12.6
-3.7
2.0
26.8
-9.1
4.2
-5.9
-3.8
40.2
-16.4
9.1

Jul-13
5.2
8.0
19.8
0.0
4.8
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-16.7
21.1
11.7
13.4
8.7

Aug-13
1.7
8.0
0.0
14.4
0.5
-2.0
0.0
0.0
-4.1
3.1
3.9
-19.9
3.6
8.6

Sep-13
-3.3
7.9
0.0
14.3
-4.2
0.0
-21.2
0.0
4.2
-8.8
-10.8
-10.7
-3.5
8.9

Oct-13
2.1
-3.7
0.0
-6.4
2.9
4.1
26.8
0.0
22.9
-6.0
16.4
-20.4
-3.5
8.9

-0.7
3.7

4.6
3.6

6.2
3.5

3.8
3.4

2.2
3.5

8.5
3.5

3.5
7.3

7.2
8.5

-3.4
8.3

0.0
6.9

-16.0
#N/A

13.0
#N/A

From December to October, El Paso
XX
gained close to 600 jobs. The area’s nonfarm employment increased in October at
a 2.1 percent annualized rate. In October,
job gains were concentrated in the information, professional and business services,
and leisure and hospitality sectors.
El Paso’s October unemployment rate
XX
stood at 8.9 percent. The Texas unemployment rate for October was 6.2 percent,
while the national rate was 7.3 percent.
Midland–Odessa, Texas, employment
XX
increased in October at an 8.5 percent annualized rate, and the unemployment rate
stood at 3.5 percent.
Nonfarm employment in Las Cruces,
XX
N.M., grew at a 13 percent annualized rate
in October. The unemployment rate for
August, the latest reading available, stood
at 6.9 percent. For October, the New Mexico
unemployment rate was 6.6 percent.

Trade Flows
El Paso Total Trade

Trade flows through the El Paso port of
XX
entry slightly decreased in August at a 1
percent rate on a 12-month basis. As of
August, total trade (exports plus imports)
was more than $68 billion annualized,
below the $69 billion level in August 2012.
Despite the decrease, the level of trade has
remained healthy; this is likely the result of
increased maquiladora activity in Juárez.

Billions of real dollars*

80!
70!
60!
50!
40!
30!
20!
10!
0!

'04!

'05!

'06!

'07!

'08!

'09!

'10!

'11!

'12!

'13!

*Seasonally adjusted, annual rates.

Regional Housing Markets
El Paso Home Sales

In October, El Paso home sales decreased
XX
10 percent on a 12-month basis. The median home price in October was $143,900.
Inventory levels continue on an upward
trend and stood at 7.9 months compared
with 7.3 months in January of this year.

Annual rate*

8,000!
7,000!
6,000!
5,000!
4,000!

The Midland–Odessa housing sector
XX
continues to improve, although growth
in home sales has decelerated. Building
permits have been growing at double-digit
rates over the past several months.

3,000!
2,000!
1,000!
0!

’05!

’06!

’07!

’08!

*Seasonally adjusted; six-month moving average.

’09!

’10!

’11!

’12!

’13!

Conditions in Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez
U.S. industrial production decreased in October at a 1.7
XX
percent annualized rate. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index and its associated new-orders
index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, continued to
signal expansion in the industrial sector in October. Formal
manufacturing employment in the Mexican state of Chihuahua, meanwhile, is up 6.1 percent as of October.
The Dallas Fed developed a model—based on the U.S.
XX
industrial production index and Chihuahua manufacturing
employment—that has tracked maquiladora employment
in the Chihuahua city of Juárez since 2006, when Mexico
changed the methodology for maquiladora industry statistics. The model indicates that the recent pickup in U.S. indus-

trial production is benefiting Juárez maquiladoras. In 2012,
maquiladoras south of the Rio Grande turned in strong job
growth of 8 percent, representing more than 18,000 new jobs.
From December 2012 to October 2013, maquiladoras added
over 12,000 jobs.
U.S. auto and light truck production have remained above
XX
10 million units annualized during the last three months.
Furthermore, U.S. auto sales remained at a healthy level at 15
million on an annual basis, in October. This is good news for
the local economy because roughly half of the maquiladoras
across the Rio Grande are auto related.

U.S. Manufacturing and Ciudad Juárez Maquiladora Employment
Percent*

20!
15!
10!
5!
0!
-5!
-10!
-15!

Juárez maquiladora employment!

-20!

Juárez maquiladora employment, FRB El Paso estimate!

-25!

U.S. industrial production index!

-30!

2000!

2001!

2002!

2003!

2004!

2005!

2006!

2007!

2008!

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

*Year-over-year change; seasonally adjusted.

SOURCES
El Paso Business-Cycle Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch.
Labor market: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Bureau of Labor Statistics.
El Paso total trade: Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division.
Home sales: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center.
U.S. manufacturing and maquiladora employment: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía; Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Avilia Bueno at avilia.bueno@dal.frb.org.

More Dallas Fed economic updates

2013!