Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : November 2, 2016

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • NOVEMBER 2, 2016

Summary

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index showed an increase in September. Total nonfarm jobs in El Paso posted
growth in September, and maquiladoras continue to post gains, although at a slower pace than last year.
Housing in El Paso remains robust, while trade through the port rose.

El Paso Business-Cycle Index

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index posted an annuXX
alized gain of 2.7 percent in September. A pickup in
job growth has contributed to the rise in the index.

Index, January 2007 = 100*

120
115
110
105
100
95

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

*Monthly, seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE: Dallas Fed.

Employment Growth by Sector
Total nonfarm employment
Government (22.8%)

-2.4

Trade, transp. & utilities (22.0%)
Edu. & health svcs (14.3%)
Leisure & hospitality (11.1%)
Prof. & business svcs (10.5%)

-3.1
-2.3

Manufacturing (5.5%)
Construction & mining (4.8%)
Other services (3.2%)
-18.4

September 2016
Year to date

2.9
4.6
1.6
2.5
0.0
0.1

Financial activities (4.0%)
Information (1.6%)

4.0
1.7
2.5
1.4

13.9

6.6

11.5
29.4

6.0
8.4
2.6

-10.8

NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth by industry supersector.
Numbers in parentheses represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

El Paso total nonfarm jobs rose by 4.0 percent
XX
in September. Trade, transportation and utilities,
manufacturing, and information sectors posted
declines, but the declines were offset by gains in all
other industries.
Year to date, El Paso employment is up 1.7 percent,
XX
and nearly 4,000 jobs have been added. All of the job
gains have been in the service-providing sector, with
trade, transportation and utilities, and leisure and
hospitality contributing the largest gains.
The unemployment rate dipped to 6.0 percent in
XX
September. The El Paso reading was higher than
both the U.S. rate of 5.0 percent and the Texas rate of
4.8 percent.

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

Total Trade

XXIn August, annualized total trade (exports plus
imports) amounted to $79.0 billion, up 14.5 percent
from July. Imports increased 11.4 percent over the
same period, while exports rose 19.2 percent.

Real dollars (billions)*

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

*Seasonally adjusted, annualized.
SOURCES: Census Bureau; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

Existing-Home Sales
Number, annualized*

Real dollars*

7,500

155,000

Median sales price

7,000

150,000

6,500

145,000

6,000

140,000

5,500

135,000

5,000

Sales

4,500
4,000

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

El Paso home sales remain strong. In September,
XX
sales totaled an annualized 7,097, nearly reaching
the prerecession peak. Despite the strong demand,
the median price remains between $140,000 and
$145,000, the range it has been in for the last couple
of years. In September, the median home price
stood at $144,735, inching up 0.6 percent from
August’s median price of $143,828.

130,000
'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

125,000

*Seasonally adjusted, six-month moving average.
SOURCES: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

Juárez Maquiladora Activity
U.S. industrial production contracted 1.03 percent year over year
XX
in September. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management
manufacturing index rose from 49.6 in August to 52.8 in September. Its associated new-orders index—a leading indicator of industrial activity—jumped to 60.0 in September from 51.4 in August.

U.S. auto and light-truck production inched up to over 12 milXX
lion units in September. Meanwhile, U.S. auto sales in September
rose to 17.7 million units on an annual basis from 16.9 million in
August. Auto sales are closely linked to the local economy because
roughly half of maquiladoras in Juárez are auto related.

Despite the sluggish U.S. industrial sector, Mexico’s maquiladoras
XX
continue to add jobs, albeit at a slower pace than last year. According
to Mexico’s IMMEX series, Juárez manufacturing employment rose
4.7 percent year over year in July (latest data available).
Sales (millions)*

									

Percent change, year over year*

19

20
U.S. auto sales
Juárez maquiladora employment
Mexico industrial production index

18
17

15

U.S. industrial production index

16
15

10

14
13

5

12
11

0

10
9
8

-5
'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

*Seasonally adjusted.
SOURCES: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (National Institute of Statistics and Geography); Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of Economic Analysis; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

NOTES: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. The El Paso metropolitan statistical area includes El Paso and Hudspeth counties.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Marycruz De León at marycruz.deleon@dal.frb.org.

More Dallas Fed economic updates: www.dallasfed.org/research/update/

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