Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : May 24, 2017

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • MAY 24, 2017

Summary

El Paso economic activity continues to expand, partially driven by the health care industry and by strong
maquiladora activity in Ciudad Juárez. Trade through the El Paso port of entry has picked up, and the housing
market remains robust with sales above year-ago levels.

El Paso Business-Cycle Index

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index—which is based
XX
on employment, unemployment, retail sales and
wages—posted annualized growth of 3.2 percent in
April, up from 1.5 percent in March. The growth is
attributable to increases in the job market and wage
gains.

Index, January 2008 = 100*

115
110
105
100
95
90

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

*Seasonally adjusted, monthly.

Retail sales totaled $2.9 billion in third quarter 2016
XX
(the latest data available), unchanged from second
quarter 2016. The lack of growth may be due to a
slowdown in retail spending by Mexican nationals. Research shows that peso–dollar exchange rate
fluctuations significantly influence cross-border
shopping activity.

SOURCE: Dallas Fed.

Employment Growth by Sector
Total nonfarm employment

Government (22.4%)

1.7
3.9

-10.3

-2.3
-0.9

Trade, transp. & utilities (21.7%)
Edu. & health svcs (14.3%)

-5.4

Manufacturing (5.3%)

Construction & mining (4.9%)
Financial activities (4.2%)

Other services (3.1%)
Information (1.5%)

April
Year to date

2.6

5.7
5.0
7.0

Prof. & business svcs (11.4%)
Leisure & hospitality (11.2%)

-0.2

3.5

13.0

13.1

2.3
0.2

-10.9

8.2

April job growth was mixed across sectors. GovXX
ernment posted a 10 percent decline, while trade,
transportation and utilities inched down 0.9 percent
and manufacturing fell 5.4 percent. The declines
were offset by strong growth in professional and
business services, which added over 700 jobs in
April. Overall, El Paso posted 1.7 percent annualized growth in April.

29.7

12.6

3.5
-7.7

The El Paso unemployment rate dipped to 5.0 perXX
cent in April from 5.6 percent in March. The April
reading was on par with the Texas rate of 5.0 percent
but above the U.S. rate of 4.4 percent.

NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth by sector. Numbers in
parentheses represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

Year to date, the metro area has added approxiXX
mately 3,000 jobs. Jobs in professional and business
services account for over one-third of the gains.

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

Total Trade

Annualized total trade in El Paso amounted to
XX
$78.4 billion in March, up from $75.4 billion in
February. Total trade rose 4.0 percent from February; however, trade showed no change from March
2016. The month-over-month gain is attributed to
both imports and exports. In March, imports rose
4.6 percent, while exports climbed 3.0 percent.

Real dollars (billions)*

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

*Seasonally adjusted, annualized.
SOURCES: Census Bureau; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

Existing-Home Sales
Number, annualized*

Real U.S. dollars*

8,000

160,000

Median price

7,500

150,000

7,000

140,000

6,500
6,000

130,000

5,500

Sales

5,000

120,000
110,000

4,500
4,000

The El Paso housing market remains strong. AnXX
nualized home sales totaled 7,469 in April, up 11
percent from a year ago. Meanwhile, home prices
remained stable, up 2 percent from a year ago. In
April, the median home price stood at $146,662,
compared with $143,762 a year earlier.

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

100,000

*Seasonally adjusted, six-month moving average.
SOURCES: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

Juárez Maquiladora Activity
U.S. industrial production rose 2.2 percent year over year in April.
XX
Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing
index declined to 54.8 in April from 57.2 in March, and its associated new-orders index—a leading indicator of industrial activity—
fell to 57.7 in April from 64.5 in March.
As the U.S. industrial sector continues to show growth, Mexico’s
XX
maquiladoras continue to add jobs. According to Mexico’s IMMEX
series, Juárez manufacturing employment totaled nearly 269,000

Annualized sales (millions)*

in February (the latest data available), a 7.3 percent increase from a
year ago and a new postrecession high.
U.S. auto and light-truck production rose to 11.7 million units in
XX
April, up from 10.9 million in March. Meanwhile, U.S. auto sales
climbed to 16.8 million units on an annual basis. Auto sales are
closely linked to the local economy because roughly half of maquiladoras in Juárez are auto related.

							

20

Percent change, year over year*

20

U.S. auto sales
Juárez maquiladora employment
U.S. industrial production index

18

15

Mexico industrial production index

16
10
14
5
12
0

10

8

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

*Seasonally adjusted.
SOURCES: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (National Institute of Statistics and Geography); Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of Economic Analysis; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

NOTES: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. The El Paso metropolitan statistical area includes El Paso and Hudspeth counties.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Marycruz De León at marycruz.deleon@dal.frb.org.

More Dallas Fed economic updates: www.dallasfed.org/research/update/

'17

-5