Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : March 2014

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • MARCH 2014

Economic Activity

Economic activity in the El Paso metXX
ropolitan area continues to expand at a
moderate pace, according to the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas’ El Paso BusinessCycle Index. During January, the index
registered 1.3 percent annualized growth.

El Paso Business-Cycle Index
Index, January 2000 = 100

128!
124!
120!

116!
112!

108!
104!
100!
96!

'00!

'01!

'02!

'03!

'04!

'05!

'06!

'07!

'08!

'09!

'10!

'11!

'12!

'13!

'14!

Labor Market
Employment Growth
(Month-over-month annualized rates*)
El Paso
Nonfarm employment
Goods producing
Construction, mining & natural res.
Manufacturing
Services providing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Educational & health services
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Unemployment rate

Aug-13
7.8
4.0
0.0
0.0
8.8
4.0
0.0
0.0
17.7
3.1
4.0
0.0
16.9
8.6

Sep-13
-0.8
0.0
9.8
0.0
-1.8
4.0
-18.5
0.0
4.1
6.3
-3.8
13.4
-13.0
8.6

Oct-13
4.2
-3.8
0.0
-6.5
5.3
2.0
22.8
0.0
27.1
6.2
4.0
-11.8
3.5
8.7

Nov-13
-1.6
-21.1
-17.1
-18.5
0.9
12.5
-18.5
0.0
-3.9
-3.0
4.0
0.0
-3.4
8.5

Dec-13
-2.5
-7.7
-17.3
-6.6
-1.4
4.0
-18.8
-9.5
-14.8
-3.0
0.0
13.4
0.0
8.3

Jan-14
-2.9
17.3
45.9
7.1
-5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-21.7
3.1
0.0
0.0
-8.4
7.8

Nonfarm employment

-0.8
3.6

5.5
3.6

7.0
3.6

10.2
3.5

1.5
3.5

6.1
3.2

Nonfarm employment

1.7
7.4

-16.0
7.3

9.1
7.3

5.3
7.3

-3.4
7.3

N/A
N/A

Midland-Odessa

Unemployment rate
Las Cruces
Unemployment rate
*Seasonally adjusted.

El Paso’s nonfarm employment decreased
XX
in January at a 2.9 percent annualized rate.
Job losses were concentrated in the professional and business services, and government sectors.
El Paso’s January unemployment rate
XX
stood at 7.8 percent. The Texas unemployment rate for January was 5.7 percent,
while the national rate was 6.7 percent for
February.
Midland–Odessa, Texas, employment
XX
increased in January at a 6.1 percent annualized rate, and the unemployment rate
stood at 3.2 percent.
Nonfarm employment in Las Cruces,
XX
N.M., decreased at a 3.4 percent annualized rate in December. The unemployment
rate for December stood at 7.3 percent. For
December, the New Mexico unemployment
rate was 6.6 percent.

Trade Flows
El Paso Total Trade

Trade flows through the El Paso port of
XX
entry decreased in January 6.6 percent on
a 12-month basis. As of January, total trade
(exports plus imports) was more than $65
billion annualized, below the $70 billion
in January 2013. Despite the decrease, the
level of trade has remained healthy.

Billions of real dollars*

80!
70!
60!
50!
40!
30!
20!
10!
0!

'04!

'05!

'06!

'07!

'08!

'09!

'10!

'11!

'12!

'13!

'14!

*Seasonally adjusted, annualized.

Regional Housing Markets
El Paso Home Sales

In January, El Paso home sales decreased
XX
8.1 percent on a 12-month basis. The median home price in January was $135,200.
Inventory levels continue on an upward
trend and stood at 8.1 months, compared
with 7.3 months in January 2013.

Number, annualized*

8,000	

7,000	

6,000	

5,000	


The Midland–Odessa housing sector
XX
continues to improve, although growth
in home sales has decelerated. Building
permits have continued to grow at doubledigit rates over the past several months.

4,000	

3,000	

2,000	

1,000	

0	


'05	


'06	


'07	


'08	


*Seasonally adjusted; six-month moving average.

'09	


'10	


'11	


'12	


'13	


'14	


Conditions in Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez
U.S. industrial production increased in February at a 7.8
XX
percent annualized rate. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index and its associated new-orders
index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, continued to
signal expansion in the industrial sector in February. In January, formal manufacturing employment in the Mexican state
of Chihuahua increased 1.3 percent from December 2013.
The Dallas Fed developed a model—based on the U.S.
XX
industrial production index and Chihuahua manufacturing
employment—that has tracked maquiladora employment
in the Chihuahua city of Juárez since 2006, when Mexico
changed the methodology for maquiladora industry statistics. In 2012, maquiladoras south of the Rio Grande turned in

strong job growth of 8 percent, representing more than 18,000
new jobs. From December 2012 to December 2013, maquiladoras added over 12,500 jobs. In January 2014, maquiladoras
added over 2,500 jobs.
U.S. auto and light truck production slightly increased from
XX
10 million to 11 million in February. In addition, U.S. auto
sales remained at a healthy level at 15 million on an annual
basis in February. This is good news for the local economy
because roughly half of the maquiladoras across the Rio
Grande are auto related.

U.S. Manufacturing and Ciudad Juárez Maquiladora Employment
Percent*

20!
15!
10!
5!
0!
-5!
-10!
-15!

Juárez maquiladora employment!

-20!

Juárez maquiladora employment, Dallas Fed estimate!

-25!

U.S. industrial production index!

-30!

2000!

2001!

2002!

2003!

2004!

2005!

2006!

2007!

2008!

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

2013!

*Year-over-year change; seasonally adjusted.

SOURCES
El Paso Business-Cycle Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch.
Labor market: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Bureau of Labor Statistics.
El Paso total trade: Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division.
Home sales: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center.
U.S. manufacturing and maquiladora employment: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía; Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Avilia Bueno at avilia.bueno@dal.frb.org.

More Dallas Fed economic updates

2014!