Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : July 31, 2015

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • JULY 31, 2015

Summary

The El Paso economy continued to expand in June. Job growth picked up to a 2.8 percent annualized
rate, stronger than the state rate of 1.8 percent. The healthy job gains are boosting the local housing
market. May trade flows through the El Paso port of entry slowed despite robust maquiladora activity in Ciudad Juárez.
El Paso Business-Cycle Index

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index continXX
ued to advance in June. The index posted
a 3.5 percent annualized growth rate, the
fastest since February 2014. Job creation and
a decline in the unemployment rate have
contributed to the gains.

Index, January 2005 = 100
130!
125!
120!
115!
110!
105!
100!
95!

2005!

2006!

2007!

2008!

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

2013!

2014!

2015!

Employment Growth by Sector
Total nonfarm employment
Government (23.4%)

2.6
2.8
3.8

Year to date
Monthly

Trade, transp. & utilities (21.4%)

-3.6

Edu. & health svcs (14.3%)

Prof. & business svcs (10.8%)

-7.1

Manufacturing (5.7%)

0.0

Construction & mining (9.9%)

5.8
7.2

2.4
1.6
5.2

Financial activities (4.0%)
Other services (3.3%)
Information (2.0%) -18.3

4.3
0.6
0.0

Leisure & hospitality (10.9%)

12.8

-0.3

-9.4

2.1
2.0

9.9
10.9

NOTES: Annualized and seasonally adjusted percentage growth by employment supersector. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total
employment and may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Job growth data are seasonally adjusted and annualized.

El Paso employment grew at a 2.6 percent
XX
annualized rate over the first half of the year,
adding nearly 4,000 jobs. Professional and
business services, education and health care
services, and government accounted for
80 percent of the year-to-date job growth.
Meanwhile, employment in the information
sector has posted the largest decline, followed by trade, transportation and utilities.
The El Paso unemployment rate continues
XX
to trend down. In June, the rate stood at 4.9
percent, dropping from 5.0 percent in May.
The El Paso reading continues to be above
the Texas rate, which stood at 4.2 percent in
June but sits below the U.S. rate, which averaged 5.3 percent.

Total Trade

Trade flows through the El Paso port of enXX
try in May declined 3.3 percent from a year
earlier. Imports rose 2.9 percent; however,
the import gains were not enough to offset
a 10 percent decline in exports. Total trade
(exports plus imports) was $65.2 billion
annualized, compared with $67.4 billion in
May 2014.

Billions of real dollars*

80!
70!
60!
50!
40!
30!
20!

2006!

2007!

2008!

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

2013!

2014!

2015!

*Seasonally adjusted, annualized.

Home Sales

Existing-home sales in El Paso have
XX
strengthened throughout the year. In June,
home sales stood at 6,857, up nearly 10
percent from a year ago when home sales
totaled 6,261. Despite the rise in sales,
inventory levels remain relatively flat. In
June, months of supply stood at 7.6 months,
compared with 7.8 months a year earlier. The median price has also remained
relatively flat over the last year. The median
price of $147,700 is up less than 1 percent
from a year ago.

Number, annualized*

8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

2005

2006

2007

2008

*Seasonally adjusted; six-month moving average.

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

U.S. Manufacturing and Juárez Maquiladora Employment
U.S. industrial production rose 0.3 percent in June. Similarly,
XX
the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index and
its associated new-orders index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, also continued to signal expansion in the sector.

its methodology in 2006. According to the model, June maquiladora employment rose 6.2 percent from a year ago, while
formal manufacturing employment in the Mexican state of
Chihuahua increased 7.8 percent over the same time period.

Maquiladoras south of the Rio Grande continue to add jobs,
XX
according to a Dallas Fed model based on the U.S. industrial
production index and Chihuahua manufacturing employment. The model has been used to track maquiladora employment in the Chihuahua city of Juárez since Mexico changed

U.S. auto and light truck production totaled 11.5 million units
XX
in June, while U.S. auto sales stood at a robust 17.1 million units
on an annual basis. The strong auto sales are good news for the
local economy because roughly half of the maquiladoras across
the Rio Grande are auto related.

Percent*

20!
15!
10!
5!
0!
-5!
-10!
-15!

Juárez maquiladora employment!

-20!

Juárez maquiladora employment, Dallas Fed estimate!

-25!

U.S. industrial production index!

-30!

2000!

2001!

2002!

2003!

2004!

2005!

2006!

2007!

2008!

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

2013!

2014!

2015!

*Year-over-year change; seasonally adjusted.

NOTES: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. The El Paso metropolitan statistical area includes El Paso and Hudspeth counties.
SOURCES: El Paso Business-Cycle Index: Dallas Fed; employment growth by sector: Dallas Fed and Bureau of Labor Statistics; total trade: Census Bureau and Foreign Trade
Division; home sales: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center; U.S. manufacturing and Juárez maquiladora employment: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Federal Reserve
Board and Dallas Fed, El Paso Branch.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Marycruz De León at marycruz.deleon@dal.frb.org.

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