Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : January 24, 2017

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • JANUARY 24, 2017

Summary

El Paso job growth exceeded that of Texas in 2016. Home sales surpassed prerecession levels, but home prices
remain stable. Maquiladoras continue to add jobs, albeit at a slower pace. Trade inched up in November as both
imports and exports increased.

El Paso Business-Cycle Index

The El Paso Business-Cycle Index posted a gain of
XX
1.5 percent in 2016. This increase is partially attributed to continued job creation in the metro area.

Index, January 2007 = 100*

120
115
110
105
100
95

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

*Monthly, seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE: Dallas Fed.

Employment Growth by Sector
Total nonfarm employment
Government (22.7%)

-4.4

Trade, transp. & utilities (21.3%)
Edu. & health svcs (14.4%)

2.5

-5.3

Leisure & hospitality (11.5%)
Prof. & business svcs (10.9%)
Manufacturing (5.4%)

-7.5

Construction & mining (4.7%)

-0.2

Other services (3.3%)
-14.5

El Paso total nonfarm jobs rose 1.7 percent in 2016,
XX
near its long-term growth of 1.5 percent. El Paso job
gains outperformed those of Texas (1.6 percent) for
the second consecutive year.

Dec. 2016
Year/year
5.4
5.2

23.4

3.3

-0.1
-1.9

Financial activities (4.2%)
Information (1.6%)

1.8
1.7
1.1
1.6
0.8

6.0
5.2
4.3
3.6
1.9

The unemployment rate grew to 5.6 percent in DeXX
cember. The El Paso reading was above both the U.S.
rate of 4.7 percent and the Texas rate of 4.6 percent.

NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth by industry supersector.
Numbers in parentheses represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

Total Trade

XXIn November, annualized total trade (exports plus
imports) amounted to $76.6 billion, up 1.1 percent
from October and up 4.5 percent from a year earlier.
However, the annual increase was due only to a
4.1 percent in imports, which offset the 3.1 percent
decline in exports. Both imports and exports posted
monthly gains.

Real dollars*

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20

'06

'07

In 2016, El Paso added over 5,000 jobs as strong
XX
growth in service-providing sectors offset losses in
the goods-producing sector. Leisure and hospitality led growth, adding over 1,700 jobs. Government,
trade, transportation and utilities, and education and
health services sectors also posted gains, adding over
1,000 jobs each. Meanwhile, manufacturing fell by
nearly 2.0 percent, while construction fell 0.2 percent.

'08

'09

'10

*Annualized, seasonally adjusted.
SOURCES: Census Bureau; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

Existing-Home Sales
Number, annualized*

Median sale price (real dollars)*

7,500

160,000

Home sales

7,000

155,000

6,500

150,000

6,000

145,000
Price

5,500

140,000

5,000

135,000

4,500

130,000

4,000

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

The El Paso housing market remains strong. In DeXX
cember 2016, annualized sales totaled 7,311, up over
12 percent from a year earlier and also surpassing
the prerecession peak. Despite strong sales, prices
have remained stable. On a year-over-year basis, the
median home price of $148,131 is up 0.8 percent in El
Paso, below the 6.8 percent increase in Texas.

125,000

*Seasonally adjusted, six-month moving average.
SOURCES: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

Juárez Maquiladora Activity
U.S. industrial production expanded 0.5 percent year over year in
XX
December. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing
index rose slightly to 54.7 in December from 53.2 in November. Its
associated new-orders index—a leading indicator of industrial activity—also climbed, from 53.0 in November to 60.2 in December.

U.S. auto and light-truck production rose to 11.9 million units in
XX
December from 11.7 million in November. Meanwhile, U.S. auto
sales in December remained strong, totaling 18.3 million units on
an annual basis. Auto sales are closely linked to the local economy
because roughly half of maquiladoras in Juárez are auto related.

Despite the sluggish U.S. industrial sector, Mexico’s maquiladoras
XX
continue to add jobs. According to Mexico’s IMMEX series, Juárez
manufacturing employment totaled over 261,000 in October (latest
data available), up 3.3 percent from a year ago.
Sales (millions)*

									

20

Percent change, year over year*

20

U.S. auto sales
Juárez maquiladora employment
Mexico industrial production index
U.S. industrial production index

18

15

16
10
14
5
12
0

10

8

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

*Seasonally adjusted.
SOURCES: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (National Institute of Statistics and Geography); Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of Economic Analysis; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

NOTES: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. The El Paso metropolitan statistical area includes El Paso and Hudspeth counties.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Marycruz De León at marycruz.deleon@dal.frb.org.

More Dallas Fed economic updates: www.dallasfed.org/research/update/

'16

-5