The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
ECONOMIC UPDATE: EL PASO El Paso non-farm employment increased in January at a 5.8 percent annualized rate. Overall in 2007, El Paso added more than 8,000 new jobs, representing a 3.0 percent increase. During January, the job gains were widespread among sectors with only the manufacturing and trade, transportation and utilities sectors registering job losses of 11.2 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. Due to the job gains in January, the unemployment rate declined to 5.7 percent, from 5.9 percent in December. In January, retail sales tax rebates decreased by 1.2 percent. The El Paso Business-cycle Index increased at a 5.5 percent annualized rate in January. On a year-over-year basis, the El Paso Business-cycle Index posted an increase of almost 4.9 percent, suggesting that El Paso’s economy is on a solid growth trend. El Paso Employment Growth Month-over-Month Annualized Growth Rates Nonfarm Employment Goods Producing Construction, Mining & Natural Resources Manufacturing Services Providing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Aug-07 0.9 11.0 38.6 -5.9 -0.5 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 -8.6 -13.7 0.0 5.7 El Paso Sales Tax Rebates Month-overMonth Percent Index Change (1994=100) -1.2 121.2 Jan-08 2.5 122.7 Dec-07 -2.9 119.7 Nov-07 4.3 123.2 Oct-07 -4.0 118.2 Sep-07 0.7 123.1 Aug-07 11.9 122.2 Jul-07 -12.9 109.3 Jun-07 9.2 125.5 May-07 -4.4 114.9 Apr-07 0.6 120.2 Mar-07 0.6 119.5 Feb-07 1.6 118.8 Jan-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 5.4 9.1 -0.9 7.2 5.8 0.0 10.9 0.0 10.8 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 26.8 0.0 19.8 0.0 12.6 -11.2 6.2 8.9 -1.0 6.7 6.1 8.4 12.8 -5.8 4.1 -3.9 -20.1 0.0 0.0 -20.4 0.0 0.0 10.8 -9.8 0.0 10.8 -7.4 0.0 3.9 25.7 29.9 0.0 7.6 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 4.6 -4.4 -4.4 4.6 15.9 0.0 -13.7 0.0 0.0 20.9 14.0 5.7 11.7 9.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.9 5.7 Unemployment Rate Notes: Seasonally adjusted data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Notes: Seasonally and inflation adjusted data Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts El Paso Business-cycle Index Index Jan-95=100 128 124 120 116 112 108 104 100 96 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Research Department El Paso Branch Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas March 28, 2008 ECONOMIC UPDATE: CD. JUAREZ Juarez employment decreased for the fifth consecutive month in February, at a 2.7 percent annualized rate. However, in 2007 total payroll increased by almost 8,000 jobs, representing a 2.1 percent increase. The job losses were concentrated in manufacturing during February, declining by a 10.5 percent annualized rate. The continued job losses in the Ciudad Juarez manufacturing sector are related to the slowdown in industrial activity in the U.S. during recent months. In January, retail sales increased by 8.3 percent. U.S. industrial production registered a 1.8 percent year-overyear increase in February. Mexico’s industrial production grew at a 3.0 percent rate in January. As the chart below shows, there is a close relationship between maquiladora employment and U.S. and Mexico manufacturing indices, which have posted sluggish growth rates in the recent months; thus, it is likely that the maquiladora industry in Ciudad Juarez will continue to follow suit in the next few months. Cd. Juarez Retail Sales Cd. Juarez Employment Growth Month-over-Month Annualized Rates Total Goods Producing Agriculture & Mining Manufacturing Construction Service Providing Transportation and Public Utilities Trade Services Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 7.9 -6.1 -2.2 -0.1 -4.7 -2.7 10.2 -4.1 -6.1 -3.5 -9.8 -7.3 -21.4 -20.7 -20.2 3.1 -3.5 17.9 9.8 -1.5 -6.3 -6.7 -13.0 -10.5 17.4 -30.3 -2.5 46.5 39.4 37.5 1.7 -3.6 6.2 7.2 6.6 8.6 0.2 -3.8 -7.2 0.0 -5.1 12.6 10.5 5.4 17.1 5.5 10.5 3.0 -3.4 -9.2 2.0 9.8 6.4 11.8 Note: Seasonally adjusted data Source: Banco de Mexico, Sucursal Ciudad Juarez with data from Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Jan-08 Dec-07 Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Aug-07 Jul-07 Jun-07 May-07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Feb-07 Jan-07 Month-overMonth Percent Change 8.3 -7.5 1.9 -2.3 -0.8 2.4 -2.1 2.4 10.2 -6.1 1.7 1.4 0.3 Index (2003=100) 132.1 122.0 131.9 129.5 132.6 133.7 130.6 133.3 130.1 118.0 125.8 123.7 122.0 Notes: Seasonally and inflation adjusted data Source: INEGI U.S. and Mexico Manufacturing Production Indices Year-over-Year Percent 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Mexico Mfg. Index -10 U.S. Mfg. Index -15 Juarez Maquiladora Employment -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 Note: Seasonally adjusted data Source: INEGI & Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Research Department El Paso Branch Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas March 28, 2008
@FedFRASER