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ECONOMIC UPDATE: EL PASO El Paso non-farm employment increased in November at a 1.8 percent annualized rate. El Paso’s labor market is up by 3,300 jobs on a year-to-date basis. Employment gains took place in the service providing sectors, namely, information, professional and business services, educational and health services and government. The trade, transportation and utilities sector was the only sector that posted job losses, while the rest of the sectors remained unchanged. As a result of the recent job gains, the unemployment rate decreased in November to 6.9 from 7.1 percent in October. In November, retail sales tax rebates decreased by 0.2 percent. Furthermore, the El Paso Businesscycle Index increased at a 3.3 percent annualized rate in November, suggesting that the El Paso economy is expanding. El Paso Employment Growth Month-over-Month Annualized Growth Rates Nonfarm Employment Goods Producing Construction, Mining & Natural Resources Manufacturing Services Providing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 3.7 -1.3 -3.5 1.4 9.4 1.8 14.3 -6.4 3.4 3.4 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 -8.4 19.1 0.0 23.9 -10.1 0.0 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 -0.5 -4.6 1.0 9.8 2.1 6.4 4.2 -2.0 15.3 6.2 -7.8 29.4 28.7 -22.3 0.0 -22.7 29.4 11.4 23.7 -10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 32.8 8.3 -3.9 -21.5 8.4 -10.4 -10.5 11.7 3.7 7.6 7.5 4.8 -4.5 4.8 4.7 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.9 -16.2 -21.3 -11.5 46.5 6.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.1 6.9 Unemployment Rate Notes: Seasonally adjusted data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics El Paso Sales Tax Rebates Month-overMonth Percent Index Change (1994=100) -0.2 121.2 Nov-06 3.5 121.5 Oct-06 2.4 117.3 Sep-06 -2.0 114.6 Aug-06 9.3 116.9 Jul-06 -8.7 107.0 Jun-06 -3.9 117.2 May-06 8.8 121.9 Apr-06 -3.4 112.1 Mar-06 2.5 116.0 Feb-06 0.5 113.2 Jan-06 -0.6 112.7 Dec-05 2.3 113.4 Nov-05 Notes: Seasonally and inflation adjusted data Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts El Paso Business-cycle Index Index Jan-95=100 124 120 116 112 108 104 100 96 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Research Department El Paso Branch Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas January 23, 2007 ECONOMIC UPDATE: CD. JUAREZ Juarez employment increased in December at a 2.6 percent annualized rate. In 2006, total payroll rose by almost 18,600 jobs, a 5.1 percent growth rate. The job gains in December were widespread among sectors with the only exception being construction which registered a 12.5 percent decline. In October, retail sales increased by 1.6 percent as compared to the previous month. Maquiladora employment in Juarez increased in October at a 2.9 percent annualized rate. Through October in 2006, the maquiladora industry in Juarez generated almost 13,000 jobs, comprising 41 percent of the new jobs nationwide. The pause in the expansion of the maquiladora industry is related to the recent weakness in U.S. industrial production. However, the outlook for the maquiladora sector remains mostly positive as the U.S. industrial sector regained its upward momentum in December, increasing at a 4.7 percent annualized rate. Cd. Juarez Employment Growth Cd. Juarez Retail Sales Month-over-Month Annualized Rates Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Total 18.0 0.3 -0.3 -3.2 1.4 2.6 Goods Producing 20.2 -4.5 -1.8 -11.2 -1.0 3.0 Agriculture & Mining -13.2 -4.4 3.1 8.1 17.3 17.4 Manufacturing 19.5 -6.6 -3.8 -11.0 -2.3 4.2 Construction 32.9 29.1 29.5 -14.9 17.3 -12.5 10.9 7.1 8.5 15.8 6.0 7.4 Transportation and Public Utilities 23.7 4.6 1.4 35.4 51.8 23.5 Trade 15.7 4.6 0.8 6.6 2.9 2.1 5.6 9.2 15.3 18.7 1.0 8.0 Service Providing Services Note: Seasonally adjusted data Source: Banco de Mexico, Sucursal Ciudad Juarez with data from Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Oct-06 Sep-06 Aug-06 Jul-06 Jun-06 May-06 Apr-06 Mar-06 Feb-06 Jan-06 Dec-05 Nov-05 Oct-05 Month-overMonth Percent Change 1.6 3.3 -0.8 2.4 1.1 -1.7 4.3 -6.5 6.5 -0.6 0.4 -1.9 4.2 Index (2003=100) 125.7 123.7 119.8 120.7 117.9 116.6 118.5 113.7 121.5 114.1 114.7 114.3 116.5 Notes: Seasonally and inflation adjusted data Source: INEGI Cd. Juarez Maquiladora Employment Growth Year-over-Year Percent 20 15 Maquiladora Employment U.S. Industrial Production Index 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2000 2001 2002 Notes: Seasonally adjusted data Source: INEGI & Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2003 2004 2005 2006 Research Department El Paso Branch Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas January 23, 2007
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