Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : December 2014

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • DECEMBER 2014

Economic Activity

Overall economic activity continues to
XX
expand in the El Paso metropolitan area, according to the Dallas Fed’s El Paso BusinessCycle index. In November, the index advanced at an annualized rate of 5.2 percent,
showing strong growth but dropping below
October’s gain of 6.9 percent.

El Paso Business-Cycle Index
Index, January 2000 = 100

136
132
128
124
120
116
112
108
104
100
96

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

Labor Market

El Paso’s nonfarm employment registered a
XX
2.5 percent annualized increase in November,
led by education and health services. El Paso
has added over 7,000 jobs year to date.

Employment Growth
(Month-over-month
rates*)
Employmentannualized
Growth

(Month-over-month annualized rates*)

El Paso
Nonfarm Employment
Goods Producing
Construction, Mining & Natural Resources
Manufacturing
Services Providing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Unemployment Rate
Midland-Odessa
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment rate
Las Cruces
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment rate

*Seasonally adjusted.

Jun-14
9.9
8.3
19.9
-6.8
9.6
5.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.8
-12.3
32.1
7.1

Jul-14
-3.2
-11.3
-16.6
-6.8
-1.8
-1.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.1
0.0
14.0
-9.9
7.3

Aug-14
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
-1.9
0.0
10.6
21.6
6.1
0.0
0.0
10.9
7.5

Sep-14
0.8
0.0
9.6
-6.9
1.4
1.9
0.0
0.0
-14.5
6.0
7.7
13.9
0.0
7.1

Oct-14
7.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.5
5.9
22.8
10.5
21.5
6.0
3.8
29.1
1.7
6.9

Nov-14
2.5
-3.9
-8.7
0.0
3.2
3.9
0.0
0.0
3.9
9.1
7.6
-11.9
0.0
6.8

15.5
2.8

8.2
2.9

2.2
2.9

12.0
2.7

6.5
2.7

6.5
2.6

11.1
7.3

11.1
7.3

-11.5
7.3

-0.7
7.1

-3.9
6.9

3.9
7.4

In November, the El Paso unemployment
XX
rate dropped to 6.8 percent, the lowest it has
been since mid-2008. The Texas unemployment rate stood at 4.9 percent and the U.S.
rate at 5.8 percent.
Midland–Odessa, Texas, continues to
XX
steadily add jobs. Employment rose at an
annualized rate of 6.5 percent in November,
and the unemployment rate edged down to
2.6 percent.
Nonfarm employment in Las Cruces, N.M.,
XX
rose at a 3.9 percent annualized rate. The
unemployment rate for November rose to 7.4
percent while the state unemployment rate
stood at 6.4 percent.

Trade Flows

Trade flows through the El Paso port of
XX
entry in October rose 3.2 percent from a year
earlier as a gain in imports offset a decline
in exports. Total trade (exports plus imports)
was $70.1 billion annualized, up from $67.9
billion in October 2013.

El Paso Total Trade
Billions of real dollars*

80!
70!
60!
50!
40!
30!
20!

'04!

'05!

'06!

'07!

'08!

'09!

'10!

'11!

'12!

'13!

'14!

*Seasonally adjusted, annualized.

Housing Markets

November home sales in El Paso stood
XX
at an annualized 6,183, up slightly from
October when they stood at an annualized
6,137. Meanwhile, the median home price
fell to $138,900, and inventory levels fell to
7.7 months from 8.2 months a year earlier (6
months’ supply is considered optimal).

El Paso Home Sales
Number, annualized*
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000

In Midland–Odessa, November home
XX
sales were up more than 20 percent from a
year earlier, while the median home price
of $228,125 was also above last November’s
price of $208,751.

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

2005!

2006!

2007!

2008!

*Seasonally adjusted; six-month moving average.

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

2013!

2014!

Conditions in Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez
U.S. industrial production edged up in November, while the
XX
Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index and its
associated new-orders index, a leading indicator of industrial
activity, also picked up, continuing to signal expansion in the
sector.
Maquiladoras south of the Rio Grande continue to add jobs,
XX
according to a Dallas Fed model based on the U.S. industrial
production index and Chihuahua manufacturing employment. The model has been used to track maquiladora employment in the Chihuahua city of Juárez since Mexico changed its

methodology in 2006. According to the model, maquiladora
employment is up over 6.9 percent from a year ago, while formal
manufacturing employment in Chihuahua increased 7.5 percent
over the same time period.
U.S. auto and light truck production in November totaled 11.7
XX
million units, while U.S. auto sales amounted to 17 million on an
annual basis. This is good news for the local economy because
roughly half of the maquiladoras across the Rio Grande are auto
related.

U.S. Manufacturing and Ciudad Juárez Maquiladora Employment
Percent*

20!
15!
10!
5!
0!
-5!
-10!

Juárez maquiladora employment!

-15!

Juárez maquiladora employment, Dallas Fed estimate!

-20!

U.S. industrial production index!

-25!
-30!

2000!

2001!

2002!

2003!

2004!

2005!

2006!

2007!

2008!

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

2013!

2014!

*Year-over-year change; seasonally adjusted.

NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions.
SOURCES: El Paso Business-Cycle Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; labor market: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Bureau of Labor Statistics; El Paso total trade: Census Bureau,
Foreign Trade Division; home sales: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center; U.S. manufacturing and maquiladora employment: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Federal
Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Marycruz De León at marycruz.deleon@dal.frb.org.

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