Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : August 24, 2017

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • AUGUST 24, 2017

Summary

Economic activity in El Paso remains robust. Solid growth continues to be driven by the services industry
and by strong maquiladora activity in Ciudad Juárez. The housing market remained solid in July, with sales
near an all-time high. Trade through the port amounted to over $77 billion (annualized) in June.

El Paso Business-Cycle Index

� The El Paso Business-Cycle Index, which is
based on employment, unemployment, retail
sales and wages, posted annualized growth of
3.1 percent in July. July marks the third consecutive month of above-average gains. Increases
in the business-cycle index can be attributed
to El Paso’s labor market—continued improvement in the market and particularly low unemployment.

Index, January 2008 = 100*

115
110
105
100
95
90

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*Seasonally adjusted, monthly.
SOURCE: Dallas Fed.

Employment Growth by Sector
2.2
1.9
1.0

Total nonfarm employment
Government (22.7%)

- 1.0

July

Trade, transp. & utilities (21.4%)
Edu. & health svcs (14.5%)
Leisure & hospitality (11.1%)

-3.0

Manufacturing (5.4%)
Financial activities (3.9%)

4.0
4.7
4.8

Year to date

Prof. & business svcs (11.4%)

Construction & mining (5.0%)

3.1

-1.4

-19.1

-8.2

Other services (3.0%)
Information (1.7%)

-3.7

7.4
8.6

6.0
0.7

9.6
10.7

-2.0
-1.8

12.0

NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth by industry supersector. Numbers in
parentheses represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

Total Trade
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
'06

'07

�The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2 in
June to 4.3 percent in July. El Paso, Texas and
the nation all have rates of 4.3 percent.
� Annualized total trade in El Paso amounted to
$77.4 billion in June, stronger than the $76.3 billion reading in May. Total trade increased 1.5 percent over the month. Growth was driven by a 5.1
percent growth in exports, while imports slowed
0.6 percent. Year over year, total trade increased
3.4 percent, driven by a 4.6 percent rise in imports.

Real dollars (billions)*

20

� July job hikes were robust; however, industry
growth was mixed. Leisure and hospitality,
education and health services, and professional and business services continue to post
increases, while El Paso’s three smallest sectors all posted monthly declines. Overall, El
Paso’s year-to-date annualized growth was 1.9
percent, lower than the state’s figure but above
El Paso’s long-term average. Year to date, El
Paso has added over 3,400 jobs. Professional and
business services, leisure and hospitality, and
education and health services have led the gains.

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*Seasonally adjusted, annualized.
SOURCES: Census Bureau; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

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Existing-Home Sales
Number, annualized*

Real U.S. dollars

160,000

8,000
7,500

155,000

Sales

7,000

150,000

6,500

145,000

6,000
5,500

140,000

Median price

5,000

135,000
130,000

4,500
4,000

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125,000

*Seasonally adjusted; six-month moving average.
SOURCES: The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

� The El Paso housing market remains strong. Annualized home sales totaled 7,544 in July, up 6.5
percent from a year ago. Sales have continued to
increase and are near all-time highs. Meanwhile,
home prices have remained stable, up approximately 2.0 percent from a year ago.
� The National Association of Home Builders/
Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index represents the share of homes sold that are considered affordable to a family earning the median
income. Affordability in El Paso inched down in
second quarter 2017. The index declined to 59.2
percent from 60.1 percent in the first quarter.
However, the second quarter reading is on par
with the U.S. index of 59.4.

Juárez Maquiladora Activity
� U.S. industrial production rose 2.2 percent year over year in
July. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index
fell from 57.8 to 56.3. The reading is still solid, and the new orders
component—an indicator of future conditions—displayed hearty
growth. Regional Fed surveys, including the Dallas Fed’s Texas
Manufacturing Outlook Survey, continue to show strength.

� U.S. auto and light-truck production fell to 10 million units in
July, while auto sales ticked up 0.6 percent. This is only the second time this year that auto sales have increased. Monthly auto
sales have been weaker than they were in 2016. Year-to-date
autos sales are down 2.5 compared with last year. Auto sales
are closely linked to the local economy because roughly half of
maquiladoras in Juárez are auto related.

� As the U.S. industrial sector remains upbeat, Mexico’s maquiladoras continue to add jobs. According to Mexico’s IMMEX
series, Juárez manufacturing employment totaled over 277,000
in May (latest data available), up 9.0 percent from a year ago.
Sales (millions)*

									

20

Percent change, year over year*

20

U.S. auto sales
Juárez maquiladora employment
Mexico industrial production index
U.S. industrial production index

18

15

16

10

14
5

12

0

10
8

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*Seasonally adjusted.
SOURCES: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (National Institute of Statistics and Geography); Federal Reserve Board; Bureau of Economic Analysis; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.

NOTES: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions. The El Paso metropolitan statistical area includes El Paso and Hudspeth counties.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Marycruz De León at marycruz.deleon@dal.frb.org.

More Dallas Fed economic updates: www.dallasfed.org/research/update/

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-5