Full text of El Paso Economic Indicators : August 2014

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El Paso Economic Indicators

DALLASFED

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS • AUGUST 2014

Economic Activity

Economic activity in the El Paso metroXX
politan area continues to expand, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’
El Paso Business-Cycle Index. However,
growth tapered in July as the index advanced at an annualized rate of 0.9 percent
after rising more than 4.4 percent in June.

El Paso Business-Cycle Index
Index, January 2000 = 100

128!
124!
120!
116!
112!
108!
104!
100!
96!

'00	
  

'01	
  

'02	
  

'03	
  

'04	
  

'05	
  

'06	
  

'07	
  

'08	
  

'09	
  

'10	
  

'11	
  

'12	
  

'13	
  

Labor Market
Employment Growth
(Month-over-month annualized rates*)
El Paso
Nonfarm employment
Goods producing
Construction, mining & natural res.
Manufacturing
Services providing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Educational & health services
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Unemployment rate
Midland-Odessa
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment rate
Las Cruces
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment rate
*Seasonally adjusted.

Feb-14
0.4
-3.9
20.4
-13.0
1.4
1.9
0.0
10.8
0.0
3.0
-3.7
0.0
0.0
8.1

Mar-14
0.4
0.0
9.6
-6.8
0.0
3.9
-18.8
0.0
-11.4
0.0
16.3
0.0
-1.8
7.6

Apr-14
5.5
8.2
0.0
7.2
5.2
9.9
0.0
0.0
37.6
0.0
3.8
0.0
-3.5
7.2

May-14
3.8
-7.6
0.0
-6.8
5.2
11.9
0.0
10.7
8.2
3.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
7.3

Jun-14
6.4
8.2
19.9
0.0
6.1
-1.9
-19.1
0.0
8.1
3.0
3.8
-12.4
19.4
7.1

Jul-14
-6.0
-18.0
-23.9
-13.2
-4.5
-5.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
-11.6
7.3

6.1
3.3

6.1
3.1

6.8
2.8

0.7
2.9

11.5
2.8

8.2
2.9

0.8
7.4

0.4
7.7

-2.7
7.5

-2.1
7.3

11.1
7.2

9.2
NA

'14	
  

El Paso’s nonfarm employment registered
XX
a 6.0 percent annualized decline in July as
both the goods-producing and servicesproviding sectors shed jobs. Despite the
monthly decline, over 3,000 jobs have been
added year to date.
The job losses pushed the El Paso unemXX
ployment rate up to 7.3 percent in July from
7.1 percent in June. The Texas unemployment rate remained at 5.1 percent, while
the national rate was 6.2 percent.
Midland–Odessa, Texas, employment inXX
creased in July at an 8.2 percent annualized
rate, while the unemployment rate stood at
2.9 percent.
Nonfarm employment in Las Cruces,
XX
N.M., rose at a 9.2 percent annualized rate
in July. The unemployment rate for June
stood at 7.2 percent. For July, the New Mexico unemployment rate was 6.6 percent.

Trade Flows

Trade flows through the El Paso port of
XX
entry in June rose 2.7 percent from May.
Total trade (exports plus imports) was $69.1
billion annualized, compared with $66.0
billion in June 2013.

El Paso Total Trade
Billions of real dollars*

80!
70!
60!
50!
40!
30!
20!
10!
0!

'04!

'05!

'06!

'07!

'08!

'09!

'10!

'11!

'12!

'13!

'14!

*Seasonally adjusted, annualized.

Regional Housing Markets

El Paso’s July home sales dropped 4.4 perXX
cent to an annual pace of 6,500 from a pace
of 6,800 last July. Meanwhile the median
home price increased slightly to $147,500,
and inventory levels rose to 8.3 months
from 7.8 months a year earlier.

El Paso Home Sales
Number, annualized*

8,000!
7,000!

In Midland–Odessa, home sales were up
XX
over 10 percent from a year earlier. Strong
housing demand, coupled with low inventories, has kept home prices high.

6,000!
5,000!
4,000!
3,000!
2,000!
1,000!
0!

2005!

2006!

2007!

2008!

*Seasonally adjusted; six-month moving average.

2009!

2010!

2011!

2012!

2013!

2014!

Conditions in Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez
U.S. industrial production increased in July at a 5.4 perXX
cent annualized rate. The Institute for Supply Management
manufacturing index and its associated new-orders index,
a leading indicator of industrial activity, continued to signal
expansion in the sector in July.
Maquiladoras south of the Rio Grande have added more
XX
than 13,000 jobs from December 2013 to July 2014, according
to a Dallas Fed model based on the U.S. industrial production index and Chihuahua manufacturing employment. The
model has been used to track maquiladora employment

in the Chihuahua city of Juárez since Mexico changed its
methodology in 2006. Formal manufacturing employment in
the Mexican state of Chihuahua increased 6.1 percent in July
from December 2013.
U.S. auto and light truck production increased to 12.8 milXX
lion in July. In addition, U.S. auto sales totaled 16.4 million
in July on an annual basis. This is good news for the local
economy because roughly half of the maquiladoras across
the Rio Grande are auto related.

U.S. Manufacturing and Ciudad Juárez Maquiladora Employment
Percent*

20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15

Juárez maquiladora employment

-20

Juárez maquiladora employment, Dallas Fed estimate

-25

U.S. industrial production index

-30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

*Year-over-year change; seasonally adjusted.

NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to data revisions.
SOURCES: El Paso Business-Cycle Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; labor market: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Bureau of Labor Statistics; El Paso total trade: Census Bureau,
Foreign Trade Division; home sales: Texas A&M University Real Estate Center; U.S. manufacturing and maquiladora employment: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Federal
Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, El Paso Branch.
Questions regarding El Paso Economic Indicators can be addressed to Marycruz De León at marycruz.deleon@dal.frb.org.

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