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EconSouth Now Podcasts
2007 Outlook Transcript
March 2007

John Robertson, Atlanta Fed vice president and senior
economist, gives an assessment of current economic
conditions in the Southeast and each state in the region.
National Outlook
The U.S. economy should expand modestly in 2007. Adjustments within
the housing sector and fluctuating energy prices should dampen overall
growth.
During 2006, home sales declined from very high levels. Homebuilders
responded to falling sales by scaling back. Most analysts expect home
sales to pick up during 2007. However, the large inventory of unsold
homes suggests that construction will be slow to turn around.
Oil prices will also have a moderating influence on growth. Most analysts
expect oil prices to move higher in 2007 because of ongoing geopolitical
risks and robust global demand.
Core measures of inflation will likely remain above 2 percent during 2007.
However, forward-looking indicators suggest that longer-term inflation
expectations are well-anchored.
Alabama
Alabama's economy performed well in 2006. Tax
revenues were strong, unemployment was low,
and employment growth outpaced the nation for
much of the year. Moderate growth appears to
be on tap in 2007.
The surge in posthurricane commercial activity in
coastal Alabama has abated, and the coast's
condominium market retrenched as supply
outstripped demand. On the other hand, areas
such as Birmingham and Huntsville should hold
up reasonably well, supported by ongoing job
growth.
The outlook for Alabama's service sector is for solid growth, with business
services and activities related to the defense industry leading the way.
However, the state's large manufacturing sector is likely to experience little
growth in 2007. Labor-intensive industries will continue to send production
offshore while others, such transportation and defense, should continue to
expand.
Florida
Florida experienced the strongest growth in the Southeast during 2006.
But the pace of growth slowed over the course of the year as housing
markets retrenched and tourism activity moderated. These trends suggest
Florida will experience only modest growth in 2007.
The decline in Florida's housing markets during 2006 was substantial.
Increases in homeowner's insurance and construction costs reduced the
demand for second homes, and speculators quickly withdrew from the

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market. Home sales declined and inventories rose. In 2007, the large
backlog of unsold homes will dampen housing activity in Florida.
Employment growth in Florida's service-providing industries, such as
tourism, business services, and health care, outperformed the nation as a
whole during 2006. However, trends in some of these industries softened
over the course of the year, thus clouding the outlook for 2007.
Georgia
Georgia's economy performed reasonably well in 2006, with job growth
outpacing the nation. The outlook for 2007 is for continued moderate
growth.
The state's housing market weakened in 2006 as home sales and
construction declined. Looking forward, construction activity should remain
slow until the inventory of unsold homes returns to normal levels.
The state's service-providing industries should continue to experience solid
growth in 2007. Expansions and improvements to local tourist attractions
should help ensure that tourism continues to be a bright spot for the state.
Manufacturing employment in Georgia has remained relatively stable since
2004. However, the ongoing retrenchment of some domestic auto
producers, as well as declines in demand for housing-related products, will
act as a drag on this sector during 2007.
Louisiana
Hurricane recovery activity dominated Louisiana's economy in 2006. The
outlook for 2007 is clouded with uncertainty.
Home construction in New Orleans has been modest as efforts remained
focused on cleanup and debris removal. In 2007, the pace of construction
in the city should improve as the "Road Home" program, designed to assist
displaced homeowners, picks up steam.
Nonresidential construction increased in 2006 as infrastructure repairs got
under way. This activity should spillover into 2007 as well. The office
market in Baton Rouge remains tight, and this condition should boost
construction there.
It was a mixed bag for Louisiana's service-providing industries during
2006. Businesses tied to reconstruction performed relatively well.
However, activity remained substantially below pre-Katrina levels in leisure
and hospitality, and the outlook for this industry remains guarded.
Mississippi
The focus of hurricane recovery in Mississippi moved from cleanup to
rebuilding in 2006. This activity lifted the state's economy, and the outlook
for 2007 is encouraging.
Rebuilding boosted construction spending in 2006, and with a large
amount of work still to be completed, this performance will extend into
2007 as well.
Retail trade and business service industries grew, while the coast's leisure
and hospitality industry worked to get back up and running. Most of the
coastal casinos have reopened, and their activity will increase employment
and state revenues in 2007.
In manufacturing, producers of building materials benefited from
posthurricane activity. However, the national decline in housing could
dampen wood products activity in 2007. Foreign competition will lead to
further retrenchment in labor-intensive manufacturing industries, while
defense spending will boost shipbuilding.
Tennessee
Tennessee's economy performed reasonably well in 2006, led by the
state's ability to attract new businesses, including corporate headquarters.
However, overall employment growth was modest, as manufacturing

continued to shed jobs. It appears moderate growth is on tap for
Tennessee in 2007.
Key markets such as Nashville and Knoxville supported commercial and
home construction industries during 2006, and this performance should
continue in 2007. Also, increased demand for second homes away from
coastal states may help support housing activity in some rural areas in
Tennessee.
The tourism, health care, and business service industries should expand
during 2007, and the state should continue to benefit from its growing
reputation as an attractive location for business. However, the
manufacturing outlook is guarded as the transportation equipment,
apparel, furniture, and printing industries continue to face headwinds.
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