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THE ECONOMY AT MID-1972
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
AUGUST 1972
The Economy at Mid-1972
Testimony of the
Council of Economic Advisers
submitted to the
Joint Economic Committee of the Congress
with an
Introduction by the President
August 1 9 7 2
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CONTENTS
Page
Introduction by the President
The Economy at Mid-1972
Supplementary Statement:
L The Economic Expansion
II. Price-Wage Controls and Inflation
III. Th$ International Economy
Appendix A. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment,
and Production
m
1
5
21
38
49
63
Introduction by the President
It is now almost exactly a year since the New Economic Policy was
launched on August 15,19 71. What has happened sincc then adds up to solid
economic gains which are a tribute to the public spirit of the people, as well
as tangible pocketbook progress for the people.
The actions of last August 15 were designed to intensify previous measures
that had reduced the rate of inflation and had started economic resurgence.
They included a freeze on wages and prices to help reduce the inflation
further, tax reductions to speed up the expansion and get unemployment
down, and steps in international finance and trade to lay the basis for increasing the competitiveness of the United States in the world economy.
The August 15 policy consisted of actions the Government would take.
But, as I said in my speech that night, the key to success would be in the
hands of the American people.
I asked for public cooperation on the ground of patriotism—for the sake
of America's economic health. But I also asked for cooperation on the
ground of intelligent self-interest. Only by acting together could we get off
the inflationary treadmill which for years had been keeping all of us from
enjoying the rising prosperity the American economy was capable of
producing.
This report by the Council of Economic Advisers describes what has happened since the New Economic Policy was adopted. The performance has
been impressive:
• The rate of increase in the cost of living, which had been cut by onethird before the freeze, has now been cut in half.
• There arc 2.5 million more civilian jobs than there were one year ago.
• The unemployment rate has declined from about 6 percent to 5
percent.
• Our economy is growing at a rate of almost 9 percent a year, the
highest since 1965.
• Workers' real weekly spendable earnings have risen 4 percent in the
last year, three times the average rate from 1960 to 1968.
• We have led the world on the path to international financial and
trade reform which will substantially help us to improve our international competitive position as well as help other countries
strengthen their economies.
I want to emphasize that the success of the New Economic Policy has
been due to the cooperation of the American people.
1
This cooperation has taken many forms:
• Voluntary compliance by workers, businesses, landlords, consumers
and tenants with the price-wage freeze and then with Phase I I has
been remarkable.
• During the period when the Phase II program was being developed,
leaders of business, labor, agriculture, and State and local governments were most helpful in consulting with the Federal officials involved. In the following months, many outstanding citizens have
participated in running the program.
• Productivity—output per man-hour—rose 4.3 percent in the past
year, the biggest year-to-year gain since early 1966. Such an increase
of productivity is impossible without the positive mutual contributions of labor and management.
• The fraction of working time lost from strikes has been at an
exceptionally low level.
The American people can congratulate themselves on their performance
in the past year and are increasingly enjoying the tangible benefits of what
they and their Government have done together.
We still have economic problems to solve, however, and again the key to
success lies in the hands of the people. We must firmly establish a lower rate
of inflation—both in fact and in the public expectations which help shape
the economic future. While we have cut the rate of inflation in half the
price of food remains a major concern. We have to get the unemployment
rate down much further. We have to continue to improve U.S. competitiveness to strengthen our international economic position.
To accomplish all these things will require continued efforts by everyone—
including the Government—to comply with the letter and the spirit of the
price-wage control system and to raise productivity even higher.
The critical point at which the help and understanding of the American
people is now needed is the Federal budget. If we allow Federal expenditures to soar again, to a point far exceeding the revenues even under conditions of full employment—as they did between 1965 and 1968—we vail risk
destroying the hard-won gains we have already made. The result would be
big increases in the cost of living, or big new taxes—or the first followed by
the second.
This Administration is deteiinined to do 'its best to resist this course by
keeping the budget under control, and I have urgently called upon the
Congress for help.
But the outcome will depend most of all on the wishes of the American
people: If the people insist on spending beyond the $250 billion ceiling I
have urged, such spending will be done. But if the people join me in insisting
that Federal spending be held down, to avoid reviving inflation now and
paying higher taxes soon, the Government will act responsibly.
2
This critical situation poses a great test of our mature determination to
manage our economic affairs soundly. I am confident that we will meet it,
and that our national economy—which includes all of us—will continue to
rise to new heights of prosperous greatness.
3
The Economy at Mid-1972
The following report consists of a slightly edited and up-dated version
of testimony we presented to the Joint Economic Committee on July 24,
1972, and a supplementary statement submitted for the record at that time.
A statistical appendix, bringing the key data up to mid-1972, is included
for the convenience of the reader.
HERBERT STEIN.
/
L
U
EZRA SOLOMON.
MARINA V . N . WHITMAN.
5
^
The Economy at Mid-1972
HE REVIEW of the economy this summer is more than usually important. A year has passed since a decisive and innovative set of policies
was launched last August and three quarters of a year of evidence are now
available on which at least an interim appraisal of those policies can be
based.
The performance of the economy under these policies can be summarized
in a few figures.
From the second quarter ot 1971 to the second quarter of 1972:
Total civilian employment has increased by 2.4 million, one of the largest
four-quarter rises on record.
The rate of increase of consumer prices has declined from 4.7 percent to
2.2 percent.
The rate of unemployment has declined from 6.0 percent to 5.7 percent
and was 5.5 percent in June and July 1972.
The rate of increase of real output has risen from 3.4 percent to 8.9 percent, the highest rate since the fourth quarter of 1965.
T
T H E POLICY AND ITS OBJECTIVES
The policy which contributed to these results need be only briefly
reviewed here. Steps to deal with inflation were initiated in the third
quarter of 1968. With the passage of the Revenue and Expenditure Control
Act, fiscal policy turned from being sharply expansive to moderately restrictive. At the same time the long and sharp rise in defense expenditures
and in the size of the Armed Forces ended, and was followed by cutbacks
beginning in mid-1969. The shift of fiscal policy was accompanied, starting
near the end of 1968, by a tightening of monetary policy. As a result of these
measures the pressure of excess demand was reduced, and by late 1969
eliminated.
The end of excess demand was followed slowly by a reduction of the
inflation rate. The rise of consumer prices had reached a 6.7-percent rate
early in 1969 and averaged 6.1 percent during that whole year. In 1970
it still averaged 5.5 percent. By 1970 demand pull was clearly no longer a
major factor in the behavior of prices. The long experience with rising
prices and the long exposure of each of the major factors of production to
static or declining real incomes per unit of input or at best disappointingly
small increases, especially in the face of extremely large increases in nominal
income flows, was leading quite understandably to vigorous attempts by
7
labor and business to catch up or keep up by raising wages or prices. In the
case of labor, wage demands were being determined more by the push of
living costs and by the drive to reestablish customary relationships than by the
pull of demand for labor, and in the case of businesses, prices were reacting
to wage and other production costs rather than to demand conditions.
The set of policies adopted on August 15 had three principal components.
These were actions to shift the economy onto a path of much more rapid
expansion of output and employment mainly by tax revisions; to restrain
inflationary behavior and expectations by a 90-day freeze on prices and wages
and then by more flexible controls; and to suspend convertibility of the dollar
in order to bring about a realignment of its external value large enough to
offset the rapid increase in prices and costs that had taken place after 1965.
These policies were followed up by the Revenue Act of 1971 and the expansive budget submitted in January, by Phase II controls, and by the
Smithsonian agreement.
The turn in policy had both short-run and long-run objectives. Our expectations for these objectives were stated in our 1972 Economic Report.
(1) The short-run objectives were to stimulate a much more rapid expansion of demand, and at the same time to make sure that expansion led to
increases in real output and employment rather than to increases in prices.
The expectation for 1972, relative to 1971, was that aggregate demand
would rise by $100 billion, that real output would rise 6 percent and that the
price increase, measured by the GNP price deflator, would abate to about 3 }4
percent. For consumer prices the target was for an abatement by yearend to
an inflationary rate below 3 percent per annum. A strong rise in civilian
employment was expected to bring the unemployment rate down to the
neighborhood of 5 percent by yearend.
(2) The longer-run objective was to restore a state of affairs in which
reasonable price stability and high levels of employment can be maintained
without controls. This was to be achieved by eliminating the pressure for
higher money wages and prices left over from 6 years of inflationary experience and by providing in its place the conditions for large increases in real
wages and real profits. The rapid rise in output was expected to promote a
rapid increase in man-hour productivity, which is the only sure basis for a
rapid increase in real wages and real profits.
(3) Suspension of convertibility was to provide the freedom to expand
rapidly and the basis for a realignment of exchange rates and readjustment
of trade policies. These results in turn would help to convert a growing
imbalance between exports and imports into the favorable position required
for balance in our international payments.
APPRAISAL
How has the economy responded to the policies of last August? As far
as aggregate demand and output are concerned, the rate of expansion has
clearly accelerated.
8
Between the third quarter of 1970 and the third quarter of 1971—the
year preceding the New Economic Policy (NEP)—real GNP rose 2.2
percent. From the third quarter of 1971 to the second quarter of 1972,
real GNP has expanded at an annual rate of 7.4 percent (Chart 1).
Chart 1
Changes in Real GNP
PERCENT CHANGE
• Q U A R T E R S H E A V I L Y I N F L U E N C E D BY A U T O M O B I L E STRIKE
SOURCE.
D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE
The index of industrial production shows a similar pattern of improvement. From the third quarter of 1970 to the third quarter of 1971, industrial
production decreased. Since the third quarter of last year, industrial production has expanded at 7.5 percent per annum.
Both measures of output have shown progressive improvement over the
past 12 months: real GNP from 2.5 percent per annum in the third quarter
of 1971 to 8.9 percent per annum in the second quarter of 1972, and industrial production from —1.9 percent per annum in the third quarter to 9.4
percent per annum in the quarter just past.
When the year-over-year gain of 6 percent in real GNP was projected in
January, it was believed, given the pattern of GNP in 1971 and its estimated
fourth-quarter level, that the pace of real growth between the end of 1971
and the end of 1972 would have to average about 7 percent per annum.
The rate of increase in the first half of 1972 has exceeded that. Inventory
9
investment, which had been sluggish, is beginning to rise. The deficit in
net exports, which had been growing, shows signs of turning around. As of
midyear, the prospects arc excellent that a strong pace of expansion will
continue and that the projection made in January will be realized.
EMPLOYMENT
The rapid expansion of output has been accompanied by a rapid increase in civilian employment. Between the second quarter of 1971 and
the second quarter of 1972, total civilian employment has risen by 2.4
million. This is one of the largest four-quarter rises on record. The rate of
rise, 3.0 percent per annum, was reached only once in the 1960's, and is very
much higher than the increase of 0.1 percent recorded in the four quarters
preceding the adoption of the NEP.
Nonagricultural payroll employment has also risen over the past year
but the expansion in this measure began one quarter later and has accelerated faster than the household survey series. From the third quarter
of 1971 to the second quarter of 1972, payroll employment rose by 1.9
million, or at an annual rate of 3.5 percent.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Despite the large gains in employment during the year, the overall unemployment rate remained remarkably steady through all four quarters
of 1971 at around the 6-percent level. The rate declined to an average of
5.7 percent in the second quarter of 1972 and the most recent measure,
for June and July, was 5.5 percent (Chart 2).
The decline of the unemployment rate has been retarded by the exceptional growth of the civilian labor force. Between the second quarter of
1971 and the second quarter of 1972, the civilian labor force expanded by
2.3 million. This extraordinary increase—twice as large as the average annual rise from 1960 to 1968—was a result of two factors. Because of
an increase in the proportion of the population that was in the labor force,
the total labor force grew faster than the working-age population. The
increase was 1.9 million persons, or about 81 percent of the total expansion
in the 16 years-and-over population. Such an increase is typical only during
periods of rapid growth in the demand for labor. In addition, the size of the
Armed Forces was reduced by about 425,000. The result was a very large
increase in the civilian labor force. Consequently, the substantial increase of
2.4 million in civilian employment reduced the number of persons unemployed by less than 100,000 between the second quarter of 1971 and the
second quarter of 1972.
In the period ahead both of the extraordinary factors in the growth of
the civilian labor force are expected to abate. Future increases in the total
labor force will presumably return to a more normal relationship with future
increases in the working-age population. More important, the Armed Forces
have now been reduced to about the level scheduled for fiscal year 1973.
Continued growth of civilian employment at the pace we have had in the
10
Chart 2
Unemployment Rate and
Changes in Civilian Employment
PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
8
_ UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
6
-
4
-
2
-
Q
1
"
'
1
1 1
' "
1
I ' "
1 1
1
' ' » » ' I • "
"
1 » • ' ' ' I ' ' "
•
1
' ' • ' » I * ' ' "
1' ' ' ' '
THOUSANDS O F PERSONS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
1,000 -
1968
1969
1970
J/ADJUSTED F O R COMPARABILITY.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT O F LABOR.
11
1971
1972
recent past should therefore reduce the number of persons unemployed at a
much faster rate. Although expectable variation may yet temporarily raise
the figure above the 5.5 percent experienced in June and July, we believe
that the unemployment rate will fall to the neighborhood of 5 percent by
yearend.
PRODUCTIVITY
As we expected, the rate of productivity increase has risen with the rapid
expansion of real output. Output per man-hour in the private nonfarm
economy showed almost no improvement between the fourth quarter of
1968 and the fourth quarter of 1970. Productivity began to rise again in
1971 and has risen by about 4 l /i percent since the second quarter of last
year.
The improvement in productivity is a key element in the present policy
because it is a necessary condition for a rise in real wages and for a durable
offset to price pressures.
REAL SPENDABLE WEEKLY EARNINGS
In spite of very large nominal increases in wage rates, the real spendable
weekly wages of the average production worker did not improve at all between 1965 and 1970—the longest stretch of no improvement sincc 1947
when this statistical series begins. Indeed, real spendable weekly wages
declined somewhat over this 5-year period (Chart 3).
In 1971, real spendable weekly wages began a rise that has quickened
over the past year, helped by a rise in weekly hours of work and a net cut
in tax rates. For the average production worker in the private nonfarm
economy, the increase over a year ago is 4.0 percent, as compared to an
average annual increase of 1.3 percent from 1960 to 1968.
The decline in real spendable weekly wages prior to 1970 was accompanied by a decline in corporate profits per unit of output. The rise in spendable wages in 1971 and the first half of 1972 has been accompanied by a
rise in corporate profits per unit of output.
THE PRICE AND WAGE CONTROL SYSTEM
Before August 15, 1971, we had no American experience with comprehensive wage and price controls in peacetime. We had no experience
either with any very forceful and detailed incomes policy. The intense
public discussion of such policies which preceded the President's announcement of the freeze was based on foreign or wartime history, the U.S. guidepost episode, a priori reasoning, hopes, fears, and intuition.
We have now had almost a year of living with price and wage controls. This is not a long enough period from which to draw certain and
universal conclusions. Still, it is possible to form a judgment about what has
happened so far and to appraise the future with more evidence than we
had last August.
12
Chart 3
Real Spendable Weekly Earnings
1 9 6 7 DOLLARS
N O T E . - D A T A R E L A T E T O W E E K L Y EARNINGS A F T E R T A X E S F O R P R I V A T E
N O N F A R M P R O D U C T I O N WORKER WITH T H R E E D E P E N D E N T S
SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R .
Four main observations can be made about the controls so far:
1. The rate of inflation has been much lower during the period of the
controls than it was earlier (Chart 4). If we compare the annual rate of
increase during the control period since August 1971 with the increase
during 1971 before the freeze, we see a decline of about 30 percent in
the rate of increase of consumer prices, a decline of about 25 percent in
the rate of increase of wholesale prices, a decline of about 40 percent in the
rate of increase of industrial wholesale prices and a decline of about 25
percent in the rate of increase of hourly earnings. While a number of causes
combined to bring about that result, the price and wage control system
undoubtedly contributed to it.
2. The price and wage control system has been consistent with the rapid
rise of production, employment, and productivity already described and
probably contributed to that rise.
3. During the period of the control system the gains from increasing productivity and production have been widely shared among workers and
owners of capital. The controls seem to be reasonably fair.
4. The control system has not required a large bureaucracy or imposed
burdensome costs of compliance on businesses and individuals subject to it.
13
Chart 4
Changes in Prices and Earnings
PERCENT CHANGE (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES)
8
CONSUMER PRICES
6
H
1
4
FREEZE-
-PHASEII-
FREEZE-
- PHASE I I -
2
- WHOLESALE PRICES
1
h~ F R E E Z e "
10 _ ADJUSTED HOURLY EARNINGS^
-PHASE I I -
8
6
4
Dec. 1968
to
Dec. 1969
Dec. 1969
to
Dec. 1970
J_
Dec. 1970
to
Aug. 1971
_L
Aug. 1971
to
Nov. 1971
JL
Nov. 1971
to
Feb. 1972
• C H A N G E FROM AUG. 1971.
J / t O R P R I V A T E NONFARM PRODUCTION WORKERS. ADJUSTED F O R OVERTIME
(MANUFACTURING O N L Y ) A N D F O R INTERINDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT SHIFTS.
l ^ H A N G E IN CONSUMER PRICES T O J U N E 1972.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT O F L A B O R .
14
-L
I
Feb. 1972
to
July 1972^
These positive results of the control system have been achieved under
favorable circumstances. Before the system was launched, the Administration had demonstrated its determination to follow anti-inflationary fiscal
and monetary policies, and the rate of inflation had already declined from
its peak. The economy has been operating below its potential and situations
of excess demand at existing prices and wages have been uncommon. The
rise of output and of productivity during the past year permitted widespread
gains of real income and moderated the struggle over income shares. Frustration with long-continued inflation had stimulated support for the stabilization program among all sectors of the Nation. The decision to start the
program with a comprehensive freeze highlighted the urgency of the problem and the need to suspend business as usual and politics as usual if the
problem were to be met.
Of course, the program also had some special difficulties to contend with.
It was initiated when profit margins were exceptionally low, so that there
was little room for cost absorption. We were going through a low point
in the meat production cycle, which would push up prices of that critical
product. The rise in prices abroad and the reduction in the exchange value
of the dollar tended to raise prices of imports. Nevertheless the conditions
on balance were favorable, more favorable than can be expected in the long
run.
We believe that the combination of the price-wage control system with
other anti-inflationary policies will lead to the fact and expectation of reasonable price stability. To achieve this goal will require firmness in the
application of the controls, responsibility in avoiding excessive fiscal and
monetary expansion, willingness to devote other instruments of Government to the task, and cooperation of labor, business, and the public. We
believe that these conditions \vill be present.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENTS
The realignment of exchange rates established under the Smithsonian
agreement of December 1971 provided the basis for a fundamental improvement in the U.S. payments position. But a turnaround involving major
economic adjustments could not happen instantly. Moreover, in the short
run, the dollar devaluation would actually have a perverse impact, causing
a further deterioration in the U.S. trade balance. This is because a devaluation has the immediate effect of raising the prices and thus the nominal
value of imports, while the response of real trade flows to relative price
shifts occurs only with a lag. In addition, divergent cyclical trends in the
United States and our major customer countries had a negative impact on
our trade balance: Rapid expansion here stimulated the demand for imports,
while varying degrees of economic slack in several of our major partner
countries slowed the demand for our exports. As a result of these various
pressures, the U.S. merchandise trade balance deteriorated from a quarterly
deficit of $1.5 billion in the last quarter of 1971 to $1.7 billion in the first
quarter of 1972 and $2.0 billion in the second quarter.
15
There are a number of factors now operating, however, to reverse the
deterioration in the U.S. trade balance. These include: The lagged effect of
the Smithsonian realignment of exchange rates on real trade flows, stimulating exports and retarding imports; the competitive advantages stemming
from the fact that prices, in general, are rising less rapidly here than in
Europe and Japan; and a resurgence of demand in some of our major
partner countries, notably Germany and Japan. Some evidence of these
forces is suggested in the preliminary second-quarter figures for net exports
of goods and services (on the GNP basis). In value terms the deficit on
goods and services, which had increased from an annual rate of §2.1 billion
in the fourth quarter of 1971 to $4.6 billion in the first quarter of 1972,
widened slightly in the second quarter to $4.9 billion. But in real
terms (1958 dollars) this deficit, which had grown from $1.8 billion in the
fourth quarter to $3.3 billion in the first, shrank to $2.4 billion in the second
quarter preliminary figures. The divergent behavior of the current dollar
balance and the constant dollar balance is due to the fact that import prices
rose more than export prices.
The substantial outflows of speculative funds which took place during the
currency crisis of 1971 began to be reversed about mid-March. Between
then and mid-June the balance on official reserve transactions, which had
been in substantial deficit, improved markedly.
In the latter part of June the pound sterling came under heavy speculative
pressure, and on June 23 the British Government allowed the pound to float.
As a result of this action, heavy speculation erupted against the U.S. dollar
and for a time European central banks purchased large amounts of dollars.
Very recently the United States also intervened in the exchange markets,
purchasing a limited amount of dollars with foreign currencies. As the
Treasury said: "The action reflects the willingness of the United States to
intervene in the exchange markets upon occasion when it feels it is desirable
to help deal with speculative forces."
PROBLEMS AND POLICY FOR THE FUTURE
We are now in the course of a vigorous economic expansion. Production
and employment are rising strongly. Unemployment is declining. The rate of
inflation has been reduced. We have laid the basis for an improvement in
our international economic position.
These favorable trends will almost certainly continue throughout the year.
There will surely be fluctuations in the pace of improvement. In some
months there will be reversals. Just how far we will have progressed by yearend is not assured. But about the general improving trend there is probably
widespread agreement.
It is nccessary now to be looking at the problems beyond 1972—to 1973 and
thereafter. Policy actions considered now will have their main effects in this
later period, and it is to this later period that the main options and problems
relate.
16
On the domestic scene the major general problem is to keep a steady expansion going, driving the unemployment rate down while achieving reasonable price stability •with much less reliance on price and wage controls than
we now have. We do not believe that the option of retaining tight controls
while pumping up excess demand and thereby achieving price stability and
very low unemployment is a viable one. Neither is it a new option. Instead it
is the classical siren song which has lured many anti-inflation efforts to
disaster.
We have no fixed scenario for the termination or alteration of the price
and wage control system. We have indicated our determination to continue
it and adapt it as is necessary and useful. But we believe that the main force
operating to restrain inflation today is the state of demand relative to capacity. We also believe that we must prepare ourselves to rely even more in
the future on prudent policies to control demand, rather than on wage and
price controls.
We must maintain a steady growth of demand but prevent an explosion of demand. And one key to that, certainly essential and probably the
most important thing, is to keep the budget from exploding.
We have an expansive fiscal policy now, as the situation requires. While we
have kept expenditures close to the amount that would be balanced by the
revenues at full employment, we have run deficits in the neighborhood of
$25 billion in each of the past 2 fiscal years. The President's proposed budget
for fiscal 1973 would also have been balanced under full-employment conditions. This balance has been strained by a number of developments so far
this year, 'but the President is determined to prevent significant departure
from full-employment balance by seeking offsets to budget overruns. It is also
his policy to achieve balance in the full-employment budget for fiscal year
1974. We recognize how difficult that will be, but we are convinced it is possible. Achieving that goal will of course be much easier if the goal is effectively shared by the Congress.
We would like to warn against too ready acceptance of the idea that our
impending budget problems can be solved by increasing taxes. Probably the
greatest delusion is to think that the problems can be solved by increasing
taxes on other people—and particularly on a few other people—and most
particularly on people who are not paying their fair share. The President has
said that the Administration would propose a program of tax reform before
the year is out. One of the objectives we seek in developing such a program
is to increase the equity of the tax system. However, when we consider the
differences of opinion that exist about what equity is, when we consider the
possible inequities of suddenly changing long-established practices, and when
we consider the past record of Congress in these matters, it is not prudent to
count on a large or swift increase in revenue from closing "loopholes" affecting small fractions of the population.
A warning is also in order when we turn to the possibility of meeting our
budget problem by raising taxes generally. The pressures for higher spend-
17
ing are great. But the public resistance to higher taxes is also great, and
understandably so. Failure to control spending may make a tax increase
necessary without making it probable. It would be better to face the expenditure problem now than to count on successfully facing the tax problem later.
On the international side, the Smithsonian agreement was a major
achievement. It embodied a multilateral approach to the solution of international monetary problems, taking into account the interests of both surplus and deficit countries. Since then, a number of events have affected the
development of the international monetary system within the Smithsonian
framework. Among them are: The narrower exchange-rate band agreed
upon among member and applicant countries of the European Communities
(EG) in April as a first step toward monetary union; the alteration in the
Smithsonian pattern of exchange rates caused by the float of the pound
sterling; and the spread of exchangc-control measures by countries attempting to insulate themselves against large inflows of foreign funds.
The pressure of these events reinforces the need to begin work on comprehensive negotiations for the long-term modernization of the international
monetary system. The United States has taken the lead in laying the groundwork for these negotiations. As the forum for these negotiations, a committee
of 20 ministerial-level representatives, based on the representation on the
Board of Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
has been approved and is expected to hold its first meeting during the IMF
annual meeting in September. The new body is expected to consider, in addition to international monetary reforms, the relationships between these
proposed reforms and international arrangements involving trade, capital
flows, international investment, and development assistance. The broad mandate of this new group reflects the view that the establishment of an international economic system in which each country is assured fair access to
world markets and in which market-directed international transactions can
make their contribution to economic growth and well-being requires complementary reforms on the trade and the monetary side. This is because there
are strong links between the efficient functioning of the international trading
system and the stability of the international monetary system.
The goal of a liberal and equitable world order implies, on the monetary
side, a system which facilitates payments adjustment without resort to policies
detrimental to the achievement of domestic economic goals or to the efficient
allocation of resources. One feature of such a system would be that exchange
rates adjust more smoothly and readily to changing economic circumstances
than they did in the past. On the trade side, our goal implies that the multilateral negotiations expected to begin in 1973 should be comprehensive,
encompassing agriculture as well as industrial trade and nontariff as well
as tariff barriers. At the same time, a workable trade agreement will need
to include a safeguard system that gives temporary protection to economically sensitive industries, as well as provision for domestic adjustment programs to assist the effective reallocation of resources which would otherwise
require permanent protection.
18
A number of steps have been taken in the past year which will pave the
way for expanded economic contacts between the United States and the
Communist countries as well. A series of recent high-level discussions on
commercial issues, highlighted by the President's visits to Peking and Moscow, have demonstrated a serious desire on both sides for such expanded
trade. One immediate result of these discussions was the Soviet Union's
agreement to purchase $750 million of U.S. grains over the next 3 yeais,
making her the second largest buyer of U.S. grains, after Japan. Agreements
on the part of the President to establish commercial commissions with the
Soviet Union and Poland to negotiate agreements on a variety of commercial issues and the relaxation of a number of restrictions on U.S. trade with
the People's Republic of China should lay the groundwork for expanded
mutually beneficial commercial relationships with these countries.
*
*
*
The problems we face, both at home and in our international economic
relations, are difficult. We express concern in order to invite cooperation,
not to indicate despair. On the contrary, we have made encouraging progress. More important, the Government of the United States has shown a
high order of responsibility, innovativeness and activism in dealing with its
problems. This, and the great strength of the American economy, are the
fundamental bases of confidence.
19
I. The Economic Expansion
W
HEN THE New Economic Policy (NEP) was instituted, the economy
was recovering from a mild recession but the recovery was slow and
was not yet strong enough to have an effect on the unemployment rate. There
was a mood of uncertainty about the direction of the economy. The stock
market, although up sharply from the low points of 1970, was drifting downward. Indexes of consumer sentiment, although improved since 1970, were
still well below earlier highs.
There can be little doubt that public attitudes underwent a significant
change with the onset of the NEP. Sentiment about economic prospects
strengthened and expectations concerning inflation improved. Together
with the stimulus from proposed tax reductions, these developments led not
only to a rapid increase in demand but also to a much more favorable
division between price and volume increases. From the third quarter of 1970
to the third quarter of 1971—the year preceding the NEP—current dollar
GNP had risen 7.2 percent, real GNP had risen 2.2 percent and prices had
risen 4.9 percent. From the third quarter of 1971 to the second quarter of
1972 the growth of GNP accelerated to an annual rate of 10.5 percent,
the growth of physical output accelerated even more markedly to 7.4 percent per annum, and the rate of price increase abated to 3 percent. Also,
the growth in real GNP has shown an improvement over the period of the
NEP, rising from an annual rate of about 6}4 percent in the fourth and
the first quarters to almost 9 percent in the second quarter of 1972
(Table 1).
TABLE 1.—Changes in GNP, prices, and real GNP,
1967111-197211
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Item
1971IV
to
1972 1
1967 III
to
1968 III
1968 III
to
1969 III
1969 III
to
1970 III
1970 III
to
1971 III
1971 III
to
1972 II i
1971 III
to
1971 IV
9.3
7.6
4.7
7.2
10.5
8.3
12.0
11.2
4.1
4.9
5.1
2.4
5.1
-.3
4.9
2.2
2.9
7.4
1.5
6.7
5.1
6.5
2.1
8.9
GNP
Prices
Real GNP
1972 1
to
1972 II »
> Preliminary.
Source: Department of Commerce.
The linkage between the shift in policies and its subsequent impact on
economic activity is difficult to specify with precision. The change in fiscal
policy clearly provided an important part of the expansive thrust.
Federal purchases of goods and services, which had been virtually constant between the second quarter of 1970 and the second quarter of 1971,
rose by 12 percent from the second quarter of 1971 to the second quarter
21
of 1972. In real terms, such purchases have risen by 7 percent over the
past four quarters, after having declined by 8 percent in the preceding four
quarters. The overall swing of 15 percent in the pattern of real Federal
purchases was one reason for the rapid acceleration in the real growth rate of
the economy.
The economy also responded to the tax cuts which were proposed, and
later implemented, as part of the NEP. The job development tax credit was
followed by a rapid increase in business fixed investment, and the removal
of the excise tax on cars and small trucks by a rapid increase in demand in
this important sector. Furthermore, other elements in the NEP may have
contributed to a reversal of the previously rising trend in the share of automobile imports. The effective tax rate on individual incomes was also cut
by the Revenue Act of 1971 enacted in December.
Conditions in the money and credit markets have been conducive to the
expansion of demand. The freeze on wages and prices was accompanied by
a noticeable decline in interest rates, and while this trend has been reversed,
rates as a whole have remained well below their August levels. The overall
liquidity position of households has improved significantly over the past year.
The ratio of liquid assets held by private nonfinancial investors to the annual
flow of personal income was almost 100 percent in 1965. After 1965 this
ratio had fallen steadily to 92 percent by mid-1970. A inild turnaround took
place in 1970. Since mid-1971 the ratio of assets to income has been rising
rapidly, and this has been a positive factor for consumer spending behavior.
DEMAND AND O U T P U T
With the exception of investment in business inventories and net exports,
all major components of real demand have expanded strongly since the
third quarter of last year. These changes, with data for earlier periods, arc
summarized in Table 2.
BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT
The most striking impact of the NEP on real demand thus far has
been on business expenditures for fixed investment. From the third quarter
of 1970 to the third quarter of 1971 these expenditures rose only 3 percent
and in real terms declined 4 percent. Since the third quarter of 1971, nonresidential investment has increased at an annual rate of 18 percent, of
which 14 percent represents a real increase.
Although some improvement in business investment had been expected
because of die recovery in profits and the special incentives provided by
the liberalized depreciation regulations instituted at the start of 1971,
the presence of excess capacity, especially in manufacturing, had been expected to dampen the rise in investment outlays. In the first half of 1971
the Federal Reserve Board index of capacity utilization in manufacturing—
at 75.3 percent—was low, and the proportion of manufacturers reporting
excess capacity in the Commerce Department quarterly survey was higher
than at any time since this particular survey was started in 1963. The ratio
22
of unfilled order backlogs to shipments in the capital goods industry was
also low. Nonetheless, a rapid growth in investment spending has taken place
in the past three quarters and much of this rise must be explained as a result
of the job development tax credit, the removal of excise taxes on cars and
trucks and the general impact of the NEP on business confidence.
TABLE 2.—Percent changes in constant dollar gross national product and its components,
1967 III-1972
II
1967 III
to
1963 III
Component
1968 III
to
1969 III
1969 III
to
1970 III
1970 III
to
1971 III
1971 III
to
1972 II i
Percent change:
Gross national product
4.9
2.4
-0.3
2.2
7.4
6.0
2.6
2.3
3.6
6.0
13.8
4.5
4.5
1.9
1.3
4.3
~3.2
2.3
11.0
1.3
2.8
8.7
5.5
5.0
Business fixed investment.
Residential structures
Federal purchases
State and local purchases..
3.3
6.1
4.0
6.7
7.4
4.9
-7.8
4.3
-2.0
-7.2
-13.0
2.6
-3.7
36.8
-3.0
2.8
14.2
18.6
6.6
6.0
Final sales
5.2
2.1
.3
2.7
6.9
-1.3
-2.6
2.4
-.9
-4.5
2.2
-4.2
-2.8
3.5
-3.3
Personal consumption expenditures..
Durable goods.
ile goods..
Nondurable
Services.
Change in billions of dollars:
Change in business inventories
Net exports of goods and services...
» Seasonally adjusted annual rates; preliminary.
Source: Department of Commerce.
The response of investment spending to last summer's policy shift shows
up more clearly if one examines the pattern of new investment projects
started by manufacturers. According to Commerce Department data, the
total value of new starts, which had fallen from a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of $34.6 billion in the first half of 1969 to a $26.5-billion rate
in the first half of 1971, rose sharply to a rate of $30.6 billion in the second
half of 1971.
RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION
Residential construction was also a major component in the expansion of
demand and output, although in this case the expansion was largely a continuation of the recovery in housing starts which began in early 1970. The
number of private units started during the year ended June 30, 1972,
which totaled 2{4 million units, is the largest 12-month total on record
and reflected a 28-percent increase over the preceding 12-month period.
Housing starts reached their peak on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first
quarter of 1972, when milder than normal weather helped to raise the
annual rate temporarily to 2 million units.
The rise in starts reflected both a strong underlying demand for housing
and favorable credit conditions. The decade of the seventies started out
not only with rising demand stemming from increased household formation
23
and replacement demand but also with a backlog of demand that had
developed because of tight credit conditions in the second half of the 1960's.
Exclusive of mobile homes, fewer housing units were started in the 1960's
than in the 1950's.
In 1971 and 1972 demand has been strong for all types of units, especially
single-family houses. Here the strength of demand was reflected not only in
low vacancy rates but also in the ease with which new housing units were
sold. Furthermore, homebuyers appeared to be demanding larger homes
with more amenities, as compared to the year before.
INVENTORIES
Businessmen have pursued cautious inventory policies since last summer
and have begun to increase the physical volume of their stocks to any
significant degree only in the past quarter. Recent data revisions help explain why businessmen were not increasing their inventory investment. It
now appears that stocks held by manufacturers and trade firms as a group
were higher relative to sales than the earlier figures had indicated. According
to the latest statistics, stock-sales ratios in 1971 were clearly high relative
to ratios in the 1965-70 period. For example, the ratio in 1971 was 1.60 as
against an average of 1.54 from 1965 through 1970; the corresponding figures
before revision were 1.55 in 1971 and 1.53 for the 1965-70 average. However,
the ratio has fallen since last year and at 1.51 in April and May appeared
low. This helps to explain the moderate rise in inventory accumulation in the
second quarter of 1972.
CONSUMER EXPENDITURES
The NEP has had a marked impact on consumer expenditures. From
the third quarter of 1971 to the second quarter of 1972, the real volume of
consumer purchases increased at an annual rate of 6 percent, which is well
above the average annual postwar gain of 3.7 percent. The rise was particularly large in durable goods where the increase in real volume was 9
percent.
Dealer sales of domestic-type cars had been running at an annual rate
of somewhat more than 8 million units in the 3 months prior to the August
15 freeze. With the imposition of the price freeze and the proposed removal
of the 7-percent excise tax, sales rose to a rate of approximately 10 million units during the freeze period. Sales edged down after mid-November
when prices were raised, but rose again to a 9 million unit rate in the
first half of 1972. Through most of this period the annual rate of foreign
car sales was stable at around V/2 million units, somewhat below the rate
of 1% million units in the 3 months prior to the NEP. In the first half of
1972 the foreign share of total car sales averaged J 4 percent, below the
peak ratio of 17 percent reached in the second quarter of 1971 but above the
ratio which prevailed before 1970 (Table 3).
The expanding economy and boom conditions in residential construction
led consumers to step up their outlays for furniture and household equip-
24
TABLE 3.—New car sales by U.S. dealers,
1966-197211
Sales (millions of cars)
Import share
(percent)3
Period
Total
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
9.0
8.3
9.7
9.6
8.4
10.3
Domestic type*
Imports
8.4
7.6
8.6
8.5
7.1
8.7
0.7
.8
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.6
7
9
11
12
15
15
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1971: 1
II
Ill
IV
10.0
9.9
10.7
10.5
8.5
8.2
9.1
9.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.4
15
17
16
13
1972: 1
11
10.3
10.7
8.8
9.2
1.5
1.5
15
14
10.5
9.0
1.5
14
First half
s Includes U.S. cars made by U.S. manufacturers in Canada.
3
Annual share based on unrounded data.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce, based on data from Automobile Manufacturers Association and other industry sources
merit. Partly because housing activity had turned around in the summer of
1970, spending on furniture and appliances had shown some earlier improvement—a 5-percent rise in real terms from the third quarter of 1970
to the third quarter of 1971. However, over the next three quarters real
spending increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14 percent. To
finance these purchases consumers made much more extensive use of consumer credit than they had in the preceding year.
The step-up in total consumer spending reflected not only a larger rise
in personal income than had occurred over the preceding year but also an increase of vastly different composition (Table 4). Since the third quarter of
TABLE 4.—Changes in personal income, taxes, and disposable income,
J970111-197211
[Billions of dollars]
1970 III
to
1971 III
Item
Personal income
Personal taxes
Disposable income..
Personal consumption expenditures
'i
1971 III
to
1972 II i
54.5
72.8
29.4
59.1
3.2
29.5
51.3
43.3
47.7
55.7
» Seasonally adjusted annual rates; preliminary.
Source: Department of Commerce.
last year, increased wages and salaries have accounted for more than 80
percent of the rise in personal income as compared to 54 percent (on a
smaller base) over the year preceding. Whereas the rise in payrolls from
25
the third quarter of 1970 to the third quarter of 1971 reflected only increases in hourly compensation, which offset a slight dip in man-hours,
the more recent payroll rise reflected both an increase in hourly compensation and an increase in man-hours of about 2J4 percent.
One remarkable aspect of consumer spending in the first half of 1972
was the large rise that occurred in the face of the unexpected increase in
personal taxes withheld. It had been contemplated that consumer spending would be bolstered at the start of this year by the tax cuts enacted in
1971. However, because many individuals chose not to use the extra exemptions provided in the new tax withholding table, personal tax collections rose
sharply in early 1972, instead of declining slightly as originally contemplated.
As a result, the increase in disposable (after-tax) income from the second
quarter of 1971 was considerably less than had occurred over the preceding
year.
Consumers apparently compensated for the rise in taxes by reducing their
saving rate. They seem to have viewed the tax rise as merely temporary
until final settlement of 1972 tax liabilities in 1973. A good picture of this
shift is provided by Table 5, which shows personal taxes, personal outlays
and personal saving, each as a percent of personal income. From the
fourth quarter of 1971 to the second quarter of 1972 the ratio of total
TABLE 5.—Personal taxes, personal outlays, and personal sating as percent of personal income,
19661-1972II
Percent of personal income
Period
Personal
taxes
Personal
outlays
1
Saving
1966: I . . .
II..
III..
IV..
12.3
12.9
13.0
13.1
82.5
81.8
81.7
80.6
5.2
5.4
5.3
6.2
1967: I . . .
II..
ML.
IV..
13.2
13.0
13.2
13.4
80.5
81.0
80.3
79.9
6.4
6.0
6.5
6.7
1968: I
II...
ML.
IV...
13.4
13.6
14.7
15.0
80.4
79.8
80.2
79.7
6.2
6.5
5
'1
5.2
1969: I . . . .
II...
III..
IV..
15.7
15.8
15.3
15.3
79.8
79.7
79.1
79.0
4.5
4.5
5.6
5.8
1970: L . _
II..
III..
IV..
15.0
14.8
14.1
14.1
79.1
78.3
78.8
78.7
5.9
6.9
7.1
7.2
1971: I . . .
II..
IIIIV..
13.4
13.4
13.5
14.0
79.5
79.1
79.4
79.3
7.1
7.5
7.0
6.7
1972: I . . .
IK
15.0
15.1
78.8
79.3
6.1
5.6
» Based on seasonally adjusted data.
* Preliminary.
Note.—Detail may not add to 100.0 because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
26
personal taxes to personal income rose by 1.2 percentage points. The ratio
of consumer outlays remained unchanged while the saving ratio dropped by
the full amount of the tax ratio increase.
GOVERNMENT
PURCHASES
In addition to tax cuts, the switch last year to a more vigorously expansive
fiscal policy included provision for an increase in Federal purchases of goods
and services. Between the third quarter of 1970 and the third quarter of
1971 Federal purchases fell, as continued cuts in defense spending more
than offset increases in nondefensc purchases. Measured in constant dollars
Federal purchases fell 3 percent, bringing the total decline from the peak
in the second quarter of 1968 to 23 percent. From the third quarter of 1971 to
the second quarter of 1972, Federal purchases in constant dollars rose at an
annual rate of 6.6 percent.
State and local purchases also rose faster in the past three quarters, expanding in real teims by 6.0 percent as against 2.8 percent in the preceding
four quarters.
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
The demand for labor has increased significantly since mid-1971. Total
civilian employment rose by 2.4 million between the second quarter of 1971
and the second quarter of 1972, an exceptionally large increase by past
standards. In contrast, total civilian employment had shown almost no
growth over the preceding four quarters.
The distribution of employment gains among the major demographic
groups is shown in Table 6. Teenagers secured 600,000 or 25 percent of the
increase in jobs. This is a far higher fraction than their overall representation in total employment (about 8 percent). The gain in employment for
adult women was 900,000 and this increased the group's share of total jobs.
Adult male employment rose by 900,000 or less than 40 percent of the
increase. Since the share of adult men in total employment is about 57 percent, the decline in share that has been going on for two decades continued.
TABLE 6.—Demographic distribution of civilian employment and employment growth,
197011-197211
Employment change
(thousands)
Age group
197011
to
1971 II
Total civilian employment
Men 20 years and over.
Women 20 years and over
Both sexes 16-19 years
Percent distribution
1971 II
to
1972 I I I
Employment
change,
1 9 7 1 I I to
1972 I M
Total
employment
1972 ll>
113
2,398
100.0
100.0
99
27
-13
894
900
605
37.3
37.5
25.2
57.4
34.3
8.3
i Employment data for 197211 have been adjusted to remove the effect of the introduction of the 1970 Census data into
the estimation procedure.
* Based on seasonally adjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor.
27
Employment as measured by nonagricultural payrolls has also risen over
the past year, but the expansion in this measure began one quarter later and
has accelcratcd faster than the household survey series (Table 7).
TABLE 7.—Changes in labor force, Armed Forces, and employment, 1970 11-1972 II
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rate|
Labor force status
Total labor force
Armed Forces
Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Nonagricultural payroll employment
Manufacturing
1970 II
to
1971 II
1971II
to
1972 II i
1971 II
to
1971 III
1971 III
to
1971IV
1971 IV
to
1972 11
1972 1
to
1972 II
0.9
2.2
2.1
3.3
1.6
1.9
-11.7
1.4
-14.9
2.8
-10.1
2.5
-11.6
3.8
-19.8
2.3
-17.7
2.5
.1
3.0
2.6
3.9
2.8
-.2
2.6
-.2
2.2
4.3
2
2.5
3 5.5
-4.8
1.6
-2.4
.9
2.9
4.0
> Labor force data for 1972 have been adjusted to remove the effect of the introduction of the 1970 Census data into
the estimation procedure.
2
Preliminary.
Note.—Data relate to persons 16 years of age and over.
Source: Department of Labor.
From the third quarter of 1971 to the second quarter of 1972, nonagricultural payroll employment rose by 1.9 million, or at an annual rate of 3.5
percent. The increased demand for labor has also led to an increase in the
average workweek. For the private nonfarm economy as a whole the average
workweek has increased from 36.8 hours in the third quarter of 1971 to 37.2
hours in the second quarter of 1972.
Payroll employment grew in most industry groups, including a notable
upturn in factory employment. Prior to the introduction of the NEP, manufacturing payroll employment had been falling. By August 1971 the total
was down to 18.5 million, a decline of about 1.8 million from the 1969 peak
and its lowest level since November 1965. A large part of this decline was
due to cutbacks in defense and space-related employment. Since August,
manufacturing employment has increased by about 440,000.
Other labor market indicators also show rising strength in the manufacturing sector. The average workweek in manufacturing rose to 40.6 hours
in the second quarter of 1972, eight-tenths of an hour above the third
quarter of last year. Over the same period the accession rate in manufacturing has risen and the layoff rate in manufacturing has declined; the
number of manufacturing job vacancies is up, as is the volume of helpwanted advertising.
LABOR FORCE
DEVELOPMENTS
The total labor force has grown at an exceptionally rapid pace since
mid-1971, increasing by 1.9 million persons between the second quarter of
last year and the second quarter of 1972. The normal growth of the total
labor force, based on the growth of the noninstitutional population 16 years
28
of age and over, is around 1J4 million persons a year. However labor force
participation rates, which had declined prior to mid-1971, have risen since
then and this increase resulted in an additional increment of about 400,000
persons to the total labor force.
Because of the continued reduction in the size of the Armed Forces, the
civilian labor force rose at an even swifter rate than the total labor force.
Over the year ending in inid-1972 the size of the Armed Forces declined
by about 425,000. Because of the very high participation rates of those
released from military service there is almost a one-to-one correspondence
between changes in the size of the Armed Forces and opposite movements
in the size of the civilian labor force. At the present time it is estimated that
92 percent of all Vietnam era veterans in the 20-29 age group are participants in the labor force.
The combined effects of the very large increase in the total labor force
and the large reduction in the Armed Forces led to a very large increase of
2.3 million in the civilian labor force. As a result of these developments, total
unemployment declined by less than 100,000 in spite of the 2.4 million
increase in jobs (Table 8).
TABLE 8.—Changes in labor force and employment,
1960-1972II
[Annual averages; thousands of persons 16 years of age and over]
1960
to
1965
Labor force status
|
1965
to
1968
2
j
:
1968 II
to
1970II
I
1
1970 II
to
1971 II
1971 II
to
197211 i
Noninstitutional population
|
1.895 !
2,109
2,312 |
2,413 j|
2,359
Total labor force
!
1,007 !
i
i
(53.1)
1,698
1,754
798
1,904
(80.5)
(75.9)
(33.1)
(80.7)
42
965
271
1,427
-155
1,909
-377 •
1,175
-424
2,328
1,611
- 1 8 3 |1
ii
1,345
564
113
1,062
2,398
-70
(Percent of change in non institutional popu- !1
lation)
IJ
Armed Forces
Civilian labor force
Employment
Unemployment
j
1
1,062
-97
» Data for 1972 II have been adjusted to remove the effect of the introduction of the 1970 Census data into the estimation procedure.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
There are signs that the pace of labor force growth will abate after mid1972. Of the 1.9 million growth in the total labor force since mid-1971, 1.1
million took place by the December quarter. Since then the total labor force
has grown at an annual rate of 1.5 million, which is more in line with longerrun expectations. As Table 9 shows, participation rates of teenagers and
of the important 20-64 age group are already at or above the very high
levels of 1969 and 1970.
A second, and more important, short-run consideration for civilian labor
force growth in the year ahead is that the sharp cutbacks that have occurred
in the size of the Armed Forces will not continue. The level reached in June
29
TABLE 9.—Civilian labor force participation rates, by age group,
1960-1972II
[Percentp
Age group
Period
65 years
and over
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1954.
59.4
59.3
58.8
58.7
58.7
47.5 ii
47.0 !!
46.1
45.2
44.5
67.2
67.4
67.3
67.6
67.9
20.8
20.1
19.1
17.9
18.0
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
58.9
59.2
59.6
59.6
60.1
45.7
48.2
48.4
48.3 |i
49.4
68.1
68.4
68.9
69.0
69.4 j|
17.8
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.3
1970.
1971.
60.4
60.2
49.9
49.7
69.8 |1
69.7
1
7
16.3?
Seasonally adjusted
1971: II.
Ill
IV.
60.0 I
60.1 ;
60.4 1
49.4
49.3 ;
50.5 I
69.6
69.7
69.9 S
16.3
16.3
16.1
1972: I . .
IL
60.3 ;
60.4 ,
52.5 I
52.3
69.6
69.9
15.9
15.4
i Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population in specified group.
Source: Department of Labor.
1972, just below 2.4 million, is the lowest since 1950 and very close to the
planned level for fiscal year 1973.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The extraordinary growth of the labor force has served to retard the reduction in the unemployment rate, and this in turn has obscured the fundamental improvement that has taken place in labor market conditions during
the past year.
After rapid expansion of the economy began in the third quarter, the unemployment rate, which had remained at 6.0 percent through the first three
quarters of 1971, has edged down by one-tenth of a point a quarter to 5.7
percent in the second quarter of 1972. With the expected abatement in
civilian labor force growth, continued gains in employment will bite more
rapidly into unemployment. The unemployment rate, which was 5.5 percent
in June and July, is expected to decline to the neighborhood of 5 percent
by yearend.
Almost all groups have shared in the reduction in jobless rates (Table
10). In recent quarters unemployment rates of persons who lost their last
job have fallen to 2.5 percent of the civilian labor force from rates of 2.7-2.8
percent in 1971.
The dispersion of unemployment continues to be highly uneven geographically. In part this is due to large reductions of civilian employment in defenserelated industries. It is estimated that the cutback in defense spending has
30
TABLE 10.—Selected unemployment rates,
19711-197211
percent, seasonally adjusted] *
1971
1972
Selected groups of workers
III
All workers..
6.0
6.0
5.9
Sex and age:
Men 20-24 years
Men 25 years and over
Women 20 years and over..
Both sexes 16-19 years....
10.2
3.5
5.7
17.3
10.4
3.5
5.8
16.9
10.3
3.5
5.7
16.8
10.3
3.5
5.7
16.9
10.0
3.2
5.3
18.2
5.5
9.5
5.5
9.9
5.5
10.1
5.4
10.1
5.3
10.6
3.6
7.5
6.1
3.5
7.4
6.3
3.5
7.5
6.5
3.5
7.4
6.4
3.5
7.0
6.2
3.8
3.2
5.5
8.9
3.6
4.1
3.2
5.5
8.7
3.7
4.2
3.2
5.5
8.7
3.7
4.2
3.2
5.6
8.4
3.6
3.5
2.9
5.4
8.7
3.4
2.7
2.5
.7
2.8
2.5
.7
2.8
2.5
.7
2.7
2.5
.7
2.5
2.7
.7
Race:
White
Negro and other races.
Occupation:
White-collar workers..
Blue-collar workers....
Service workers
Other categories:
State insured workers.
Married mon
Full-time workers
Part-time workers
Household heads
Reason for unemployment: a
Lost last job
Entered or re-entered labor force.,
Left last job
» Unemployment as a percent of civilian labor force in group specified unless otherwise indicated.
» Unemployment rate calculated as percent of total civilian labor force.
Source: Department of Labor.
reduccd the number of defense-related private sector jobs from its peak level
of 3.2 million in 1968 to 1.9 million in mid-1972. Of this total decline about
90,000 has occurred over the past 12 months.
MANPOWER
POLICIES
Over the past 4 years the United States has made a substantial transition
from an economy in which employment was heavily based on defense to one
that is far less defense oriented. In the second quarter of 1968 fully 8 million
persons in and out of uniform were directly engaged in defense activity, equal
to 10 percent of the total labor force. By the second quarter of 1972 the
number of persons directly engaged in defense activity had been reduced to
5y!i million or 6 percent of the total labor force. A transition of this size,
desirable as it might be for the overall economy, imposes burdens on the
individuals involved. The fact that it was necessary to make a parallel
transition at the same time from a high and rising rate of inflation to a
moderate and falling rate of inflation made it all the harder for policy to
deal with the employment effects of the transition from defense employment.
Overall fiscal and monetary policies have therefore been supplemented by a
number of policies instituted or expanded to deal directly with the problems
of employment and unemployment.
31
Expenditures for manpower programs have been increased from $2.3
billion in fiscal year 1969 to §4.3 billion in fiscal year 1972, and are planned
at $5.1 billion in fiscal year 1973. The number of new enrollees receiving
training for employment under these programs has been increased from 1.7
million in fiscal year 1969 to an estimated 2.3 million in fiscal year 1972.
Computerized job banks have been established in 111 cities to bring jobs
and job seekers together more quickly. For die summer of 1972, 1.1 million
young people will receive jobs through Federal programs, up from the
700,000 served in the summer of 1969. For fiscal year 1973, an additional
652,000 youths are expected to receive training and work experience in other
Federal manpower programs.
Veterans are receiving substantial aid for training and readjustment.
Actual outlays for veterans' education were $1.5 billion in fiscal 1971 and
are estimated to be $2 billion for 1972. By December 1971,1.9 million Vietnam era veterans had received aid under the GI bill. Other special programs such as Project Transition have been initiated to hasten the readjustment of veterans. The President has also signed legislation which will
increase the disability benefits for veterans by 10 percent.
Unemployed and underemployed engineers, scientists, and technicians
have received assistance under the Technology Mobilization and Reemployment Program started in 14 cities in 1971 and extended nationwide in January of 1972.
To ease the burden of prolonged spells of unemployment, additional
income protection was provided through the Employment Security Amendments of 1970. This act provided for up to 13 extra weeks of unemployment
benefits when the national insured unemployment rate has been at or above
4.5 percent for 3 consecutive months. The extended program went into effect
in January 1972 and was dctriggcred in April 1972. The 1970 Amendments
also provided for extended benefits in individual States with insured jobless
rates averaging in excess of 4 percent for 13 successive weeks and unemployment at least 20 percent higher than in the same period of the 2 preceding
years. Additional protection in States with particularly acute unemployment was provided under temporary unemployment compensation legislation enacted in 1971. This legislation, which was scheduled to expire on
July 1, 1972, recently was extended for 6 months. During fiscal year 1972
about $1.2 billion was paid to approximately 2.3 million beneficiaries under
these extended benefit programs.
PRODUCTIVITY, U N I T LABOR COSTS, AND PROFITS
One reason for the persistence of cost pressures during the early stages
of the current expansion was the spotty performance of productivity,
measured by output per man-hour. Typically, productivity has risen sharply
once a trough in the business cycle has been reached. But in the summer
of 1971, three quarters after the trough, the rise in output per man-hour in
the private nonfarm sector at 3.1 percent was less than in any other upturn
32
since the end of World War II (Table 11). A comparative lag in productivity
growth also shows up if the preceding peak of each business cycle is used as
a base.
TABLE 11.—Indexes of output per man-hour after business cycle troughs, private nonfarm economy
Number of quarters after trough
Year and quarter of trough
Trough
3
4
5
6
1949 IV
100.0
106.8
107.3
106.0
106.7
1954 III
100.0
103.8
104.3
103.5
102.3
1958 II
100.0
103.5
104.6
103.7
104.8
1961 1
100.0
105.2
106.0
106.5
108.2
1970IV
100.0
103.1
104.4
105.6
1106.9
< Preliminary.
Note.—Data relate to all persons.
Source: Department of Labor.
From the third quarter of 1971 to the second quarter of 1972 productivity
rose at an annual rate of about 5 percent, far better than in the preceding
four-quarter period and also a better performance than had occurred in a
similar stage of earlier expansions. This increase, combined with a decreased
rate of rise in hourly compensation, led to a marked slowing of the rate of
rise of labor costs per unit of output. From the third quarter of 1971 to the
second quarter of 1972, unit labor costs in the private nonfarm sector rose
at an annual rate of about l / 2 percent. This compared with the increases
of 6.7 percent per annum from 1968 to 1970 and 3.1 percent from 1970 to
1971 (Table 12).
TABLE 12.—Changes in compensation, productivity, and labor costs in the private nonjarm economy,
1962-1972II
(Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates)
1962
to
1964
Item
1964
to
1966
1966
to
1968
1968
to
1970
1970
to
1971
1971 111
to
1972 II i
4.2
4.9
6.5
7.1
6.9
6.5
3.4
3.2
2.2
.4
3.7
5.0
.8
1.6
4.1
6.7
3.1
1.4
Implicit price deflator
1.2
1.8
3.4
4.7
4.3
1.9
Real compensation per man-hour s
2.9
2.5
2.8
1.4
2.5
3.4
Compensation per man-hour
Output per man-hour.
Unit labor costs
» Preliminary.
* Compensation per man-hour adjusted for changes in the consumer price index.
Note.—Data relate to all persons.
Source: Department of Labor.
THE
CORPORATE
SECTOR
Table 13 puts into perspective the changes in unit production costs that
have occurred for nonfinancial corporations. These companies accounted
for 65 percent of real private output in 1971.
33
For the corporate sector the improvement in output per man-hour increased quite sharply to 5 percent per annum from the third quarter of 1971
to the first quarter of 1972, the latest period for which complete figures are
available. The increase in compensation per man-hour, at an annual rate
of 7 percent, was slightly higher than the 6.7 percent recorded over the
period ending in the third quarter of 1971. The increase reflects the postfreeze bulge in wages and the increase in Social Security taxes. The combined effect of these changes in compensation and productivity was an
increase in unit labor costs of 1.9 percent per annum over the past two
quarters, a marked decline from the pace of unit labor cost increases prior
to the third quarter of 1971.
TABLE 13.—Changes in prices, costs, and profits per unit of output for nonfinancial corporations>
1966 III-19721
Item
1966 111
to
1967 HI
1967 111
to
1968 ill
1968 III
to
1969 III
1969 111
to
1970 III
1970 III
to
1971 III
1971 III
to
1972 1 1
Dollar change per unit of output:
Price
Employee compensation..
Other costs
Capital consumption allowances..
Indirect business taxes'
Net interest
Profits >
0.031
0.029
0.030
0.044
0.048
0.018
.028
.016
.020
.008
.038
.016
.045
.022
.022
.017
.016
.000
.008
.005
.003
.001
.005
.002
.007
.004
.005
.008
.008
.006
.010
.006
.001
.002
-.002
.000
-.014
.002
-.024
-.022
.007
.004
2.9
2.6
2.6
3.8
4.0
1.4
4.1
2.8
5.2
5.9
2.7
1.9
5.3
1.2
7.3
4.4
7.2
1.8
7.8
1.9
6.7
3.9
7.0
5.1
7.4
3.4
6.7
8.6
6.1
.0
8.0
5.2
15.0
.9
5.0
8.7
6.4
3.8
20.0
6.9
7.3
20.0
8.1
5.1
2.8
1.5
-1.6
.0
-7.8
1.2
-14.4
-15.4
5.8
3.1
1.0
7.0
4.4
-1.4
1.8
9.7
Percent change per unit of output:
Price
Employee compensation...
Compensation per man-hour...
Output per man-hour
Other costs...
Capital consumption allowances.
Indirect business taxes*
Net interest
Profits J_.
Output
i Seasonally adjusted annual rates; preliminary.
* Also includes business transfer payments less subsidies.
3
Before taxes and including inventory valuation adjustment
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
Unit nonlabor costs for the corporate sector changed little between the
third quarter of 1971 and the first quarter of 1972. In spite of increased
depreciation charges due to the asset depreciation range guidelines (ADR),
capital consumption costs per unit of output rose only moderately, and this
rise was offset by some decline in indirect business taxes per unit of output.
The chief reason for the latter was the rapid rise in output, but the removal
of the excise tax on automobiles and small trucks, and the elimination of
the import surcharge were also contributing factors. Interest costs per unit
of output were unchanged.
34
With unit costs rising less than price per unit, unit profits continued
the irregular upturn in progress since the low point in the strike-affected
fourth quarter of 1970. In spite of this recovery, however, profits per unit
of output in the first quarter of 1972 were still 29 percent below the peak
reached in the last quarter of 1965.
Changes in the dollar volume of profits reflect not only changes in profits
per unit but also changes in the volume of output. With unit costs up only
slightly and volume up substantially, aggregate before-tax profits of all
corporations in the first quarter of 1972 were 8V2 percent greater than they
had been a year earlier. The corresponding figures for the second quarter
will show a greater rise but no estimates will be available for another
month. After-tax profits rose by 18.8 percent—considerably more rapidly
than before-tax profits—because corporations realized tax savings from the
ADR and the job development credit.
Even with the large over-the-year increases, profits as a share of corporate GNP remain relatively low, as Table 14 indicates. In the first quarter,
TABLE 14.—Distribution of gross product originating in nonfinancial corporations, 1947-72
[Percent] »
All other costs
Period
Total
Compensation of
employees
Capital
consumption
allowances
Total
Indirect
business
taxes 3
Net
interest
Profits 1
1947
1948
1949
100.0
100.0
100.0
65.9
63.9
63.8
14.8
14.5
16.1
4.8
5.0
5.9
9.3
8.8
9.5
0.7
.7
.8
19.4
21.6
20.1
1950
1951
1552
1953
1954
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.4
63.1
64.8
65.9
65.9
15.5
15.1
16.1
16.6
17.6
5.7
5.8
6.2
6.6
7.7
9.2
8.7
9.2
9.3
9.1
.6
.6
.7
.7
.8
22.1
21.7
19.1
17.4
16.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
63.9
65.3
65.6
65.9
64.7
17.5
17.7
18.6
19.9
19.1
7.9
8.0
8.4
9.1
8.7
8.9
9.0
9.3
9.7
9.3
.7
.7
.9
1.1
1.0
18.6
16.9
15.8
14.2
16.2
100.0
100.0
lco.o
100.0
100.0
65.5
65.1
64.3
63.9 !!
63.3
19.7
20.4
20.8
20.9 i!
20.8 !
8.9
9.2
9.7
9.7
9.5
9.7
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.8
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
14.8
14.5
14.9
15.2
16.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
62.6
63.2
64.0
64.2
65.7
20.4 I
20.0 1
20.9
21.2
21.8
9.4
9.3
9.7
9.7
9.9
9.5
8.9
9.1
9.3
9.3
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.5
17.0
16.8
15.1
14.7
12.5
1970
1971
100.0
100.0
67.2
66.4
23.0
23.4
10.3
10.6
9.7
9.9
2.9
2.9
9.8
10.2
1971:1
II
Ill
IV
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
66.5
66.4
66.3
66.4
23.2
23.1
23.5
23.7
10.3
10.4
10.6
10.8
9.9
9.8
9.9
10.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
10.3
10.5
10.2
-9.9
1972: 1
100.0
66.4
23.2
10.7
9.7
2.9
10.3
.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
!!
* Quarterly percents based on seasonally adjusted data.
3 Also includes business transfer payments less subsidies.
3 Before taxes and including inventory valuation adjustment.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
35
the ratio of profits (before taxes and including the inventory valuation adjustment) to corporate gross product was 10.3 percent. While this ratio
was higher than the 9.8-percent ratio recorded in the recession year 1970
it was well below the average ratio of 15 percent that prevailed during
the 1960's. If capital consumption allowances are added to profits the combined current share is still below the average of the 1960's but the fall is
less than for profits alone.
MONETARY AND CREDIT DEVELOPMENTS
The stock of money, which had grown at a 10.2-percent seasonally
adjusted annual rate from December 1970 to June 1971, rose at a 2.4-percent rate from June to December 1971. During the period of the price and
wage freeze from August to November 1971 the stock of money actually
declined. Toward the end of 1971 monetary growth resumed as the economy
itself began its more rapid expansion, and by early 1972 monetary growth
quickened substantially. Overall, from December to June, the seasonally
adjusted annual rate of growth was 7.5 percent. Over the same period, the
more broadly defined measure of the money supply, M 2 , which includes
time deposits at commercial banks, rose at an annual rate of 11.4 percent,
while the even broader measure, M 3 , which includes deposits at nonbank
thrift institutions, rose at an annual rate of 13.8 percent as consumers built
up liquid assets by adding to their time and savings accounts.
In February the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopted as
an additional operating target a new aggregate measure, reserves available
to support private nonbank deposits (RPD). This target is now used as
an additional guide to the day-to-day open market operations of the Federal Reserve System in its effort to achieve intermediate monetary objectives and thereby to aid in reaching national economic goals. Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits consist of total member bank
reserves less those reserves required for U.S. Government and interbank
deposits.
When this aggregate was adopted as an operating guide in February, the
FOMC agreed that it should rise at an annual rate in the 6-10-percent
range in the February-March period. The target was changed to the 9-13percent range in M a ^ h and to the 7-11 -percent range in April. In the
period February-June, the actual seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth
of this reserve measure was 9.8 percent.
INTEREST RATES
In the first half of 1971, interest rates generally declined through February or March and then turned upward. In the second half of the year
both the monetary growth rate and market interest rates declined sharply.
While this shift had begun before August 15, it was intensified immediately
after August 15, particularly for interest rates. The yield on 3-month
Treasury bills experienced the most dramatic decline: from a peak of 5.41
36
percent for the month of July, it fell steadily to 3.18 percent during February 1972. This decline was influenced to a considerable extent by demand
for these bills by foreign official institutions which could no longer use dollars to purchase gold from the United States after August 15, but other yields
in all maturity ranges fell as well. The 4-6-month prime commercial paper
rate dropped from 5.75 percent to 3.93 percent from July to February,
while the yield on Aaa corporate bonds fell from 7.64 percent to 7.27 percent
over the same period.
An important portion of the declines in interest rates occurred within
2 b weeks of the August 15 announcements, reflecting the revision of investors' expectations about the pace of price inflation.
Interest rates began rising early in 1972 as the economic expansion gained
momentum. At mid-1972, however, these rates were generally still well
below rnid-1971 levels. In June 1972, the 3-month Treasury bill rate was
3.87 percent, compared with 5.41 percent last July, the yield on highgrade municipal bonds was 5.37 percent, compared with 6.31 percent, and
the yield on Aaa corporate bonds was 7.23 percent compared with 7.64
percent.
MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES
Mortgage interest rates participated in the general downward movement.
Because there is normally a delay, often exceeding a month or two, between the setting of the interest rate and the actual closing of a mortgage
loan, the decline in reported mortgage rates began somewhat after August 15.
Rates on new home mortgages generally followed other rates upward in
early 1971 and peaked around August and September. Rates declined
steadily from then into 1972, but showed some signs of upward pressure
in the second quarter of 1972 as general demands on credit markets intensified. Yields on existing mortgages traded in secondary markets are not
subject to closing delays in reporting and accordingly turned down after
July 1971, along with most market rates. The decline in these yields also
continued into the second quarter of 1972.
37
II. Price-Wage Controls and Inflation
T
HE MEASURE of inflation which is of most immediate concern
to the American people is the rate of increase of the consumer price
index (GPI). The goal set by the Cost of Living Council is to get the rate
of increase of the CPI down to 2 to 3 percent by the end of 1972.
The course of the unwinding of the inflation can be simply summarized
in a few numbers. The inflation was at its peak in early 1969 with the CPI
rising at an annual rate of 61/2 percent or more. By the early part of 1971 the
rate had been reduced to a little less than 4 percent. During the period
of the New Economic Policy (NEP) the rate has been under 3 percent. The
rate of inflation has been cut by more than half from its peak (Table 15).
TABLE 15.—Changes in consumer prices, December 1968-June
1972
(Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual ratesl
Item
Dec. 1968 Dec. 1969 1 Dec. 1970 Aug. 1971 Nov. 1971 1 1 Feb. 1972
t0
to
to
to
to
jI
to
|
Dec. 1969 Dec. 1970! Aug. 1971 Nov. 19711 Feb. 1972 June 1972
Aug. 197
to
June 1972
2.7
All items1
6.1
5.5
3.8
1.9
4.8
1.8
Food*
7.2
2.2
5.0
1.7
9.7
.0
3.3
11.2
-.6
2.6
30.1
-3.0
9.2
3.9
4.0
4.5
5.9
3.9
-1.6
3.6
3.2
12.2
7.4 1
||
- . 7 !!
-.3
.0
.4
4.2
12.4
.8
-.3
-6.1
.2
1.0
1.0
1.8
Meat, poultry, and fish
Cereal and bakery products
Dairy products
Fruits and vegetables .
Apparel and upkeep.
Men's and boys' apparel..
Women's and girls apparel
Footwear
Transportation
Private
5.2
3.9
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.5
5.4
3.5
1.8
1.0
.0
2.0
1.1
5.3
6.0
4.1
4.1
1.8
2.6
3.4
3.7
4.7
1.0
.0
3.7
2.4
2.9
5.2
7.1
3.4
-2.3
-1.3
2.8
.0
4.9
6.4
3.0
-2.7
-3.0
2.9
—.6
2.1
6.7
-1.1
-13.3
12.4
3.6
.6
3.2
2.9
.1
-.7
-3.3
-1.4
-1.8
All items less food
Commodities less food
Services' «
5.7
4.5
7.4
6.5
4.8
8.2
3.4
2.9
4.6
2.3
.0
3.1
2.9
2.4
4.4
2.9
2.6
3.0
2.7
1.7
3.4
Rent•
Medical care
3.8
7.0
4.5
8.3
4.3 !!
6.9 |
1
2.8
3.1
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.8
New cars
Gasoline and motor
oil
Special groups:
"
* A so mc udes housing and health and recreation not shown separately.
I J s o includes other foods at home and foods away from home not shown separately.
3 Also includes some other services not shown separately.
< Changes based on unadjusted indexes since these prices have little seasonal movement.
Source: Department of Labor.
This development can be better understood if we divide consumer prices
into their food and nonfood components. More than other prices, food prices
rise and fall for reasons other than the underlying trend of inflation, although
these variations in food prices may themselves affect the trend.
38
The total of consumer prices excluding food prices shows substantial improvement, although the timing is a little different than for the total including food. The total excluding food readied its maximum rate of increase in
1970, rather than in 1969. The rate of increase in 1970 was 6.5 percent. By
the early part of 1971 the rate had been reduced by almost half, to 3.4 percent. During the period of the NEP the rate has been further reduced, to
2.7 percent.
One of the most striking aspects of the decline in the inflation rate has
been the slowdown in the increase of service prices (Chart 5). In 1970 scrvice
prices rose by 8.2 percent. By early 1971 the rate had been reduced to 4.6 percent and during the period of the NEP to 3.4 percent. During the 3 months of
the freeze service prices rose at a rate of 3.1 percent. In the first 3 months of
Phase II there was a bulge when the rate of increase rose to 4.4 percent.
However, since February the rate has been 3.0 percent.
Two items in the consumer service category that are especially important
to many Americans are rents and medical care. The rate of increase of rents
reached a high of 4.5 percent in 1970, fell slightly to 4.3 percent in early 1971
and has been 3.1 percent during the control period. The rate of increase of
costs of medical care reached 8.3 percent in 1970, fell to 6.9 percent in early
1971 and has been 2.8 percent during the Economic Stabilization Program
(ESP). The past year was the first year in 10 when the costs of medical care
did not rise faster than the CPI as a whole. This remarkable change is gratifying because the rapid rise in costs of medical care had been a source of
great anxiety in the country.
The rates of increase of consumer prices of nonfood commodities over the
past several years show a similar pattern of retardation. The annual rate of
increase was 4.8 percent in 1970, 2.9 percent in 1971 before the freeze, and
1.7 percent during the controls program. However, the pattern during the
controls period was somewhat different than in the case of services. The
freeze held down price increases much more rigorously for nonfood commodities than for services and the post-freeze rebound was also larger for
the nonfood commodities.
Food prices have played a major role in variations in the CPI since early
1969. They rose by 7.2 percent in 1969 but by only 2.2 percent in 1970, after
which the rate increased to 5.0 percent in the first part of 1971. During the
period of the New Economic Policy they have risen at a rate of 3.3 percent,
compared to 2.7 percent for the nonfood sector of the price index. Within
this period food prices have been highly variable, rising at the annual rate of
1.7 percent during the freeze and 9.7 percent in the next 3 months, but showing no change for the succeeding 4-month period as a whole. These shortterm variations have been dominated by fluctuations in the prices of meat.
The price of meat, in turn, reflects the pressure of a strong growth of demand derived from the large rise in employment and incomes imposed
upon supply variations caused by earlier production decisions. In the particular period under review the earlier high prices of feed caused by the corn
39
Chart 5
Changes in Consumer Prices
PERCENT CHANGE FROM 6 MONTHS EARLIER
12
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
10
SERVICES V
Q
III
I I I ? I I 1 I 11 M
1968
11 t h
11 1 1 1 I I 11 1 1 1 I I I I i I
1969
1
M
1970
I ! I ; I I ! I I ) I ''
1971
11 i
1972
10
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
/V
y*
FOOD
LA W A .
Vf \ , 4
A/v
r
5
NONFOOD
COMMODITIES
U
Q I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I l I M I I I I I I I I » I I I I I I ! l • I
1968
1969
1970
I / C H A N G E S B A S E D O H U N A D J U S T E D I N D E X E S SINCE T H E S E PRICES
H A V E L I T T L E SEASONAL MOVEMENT.
SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R .
40
V
\
1
I
/
I i | i < I
1971
t
#
i i i I I i 1 II
1972
blight in August 1970 contributed at certain points to a cut in meat supplies. Thus domestic production of red meat declined by about 5 percent between the September-November period and the December-February period
and rose by about 4 percent in the succeeding 3 months.
The course of industrial prices at wholesale provides a clue, although admittedly only a very rough one, to the future course of consumer prices for
nonfood commodities. Here again we see that progress has been made
(Table 16). Wholesale industrial prices rose at a rate of 2.8 percent during
the control period, compared to 4.7 percent in 1971 before the freeze and
3.9 percent and 3.6 percent in 1969 and 1970 respectively. Two commodities, lumber and hides, have had exceptionally large price fluctuations due
to variations in demand or supply conditions and these fluctuations have
had a disproportionate effect on wholesale industrial prices in recent years
(Chart 6). For all other industrial commodities the annual rate of price
increase has been 2.3 percent from August 1971 to July 1972.
TABLE 16.—Changes in labor earnings and wholesale prices, December 1968-July
1972
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Item
Dec. 1970 Aug. 1971
to
to
Aug.1971 Nov. 1971
Nov. 1971 Feb. 1972 Aug. 1971
to
to
to
Feb. 1972 July 1972t July 1972 1
Dec. 1968
to
Dec. 1969
Dec. 1969
to
Dec. 1970
6.5
.4
6.8
1.3
7.2
3.3
1.9
.0
10.0
4.9
5.1
3 3.2
5.5
3 2.7
6.2
.1
4.3
-1.1
6.4
2.5
4.6
2.6
9.5
4.5
5.5
34.1
6.3
3 3.8
4.8
-1.1
4.8
-.7
7.2
3.4
4.1
2.1
9.8
4.9
4.8
3 3.4
7.0
3 4.5
Earnings of nonfarm production
workers
Adjusted hourly earnings: 2
Current dollars
1967 dollars
Average weekly earnings:
Gross weekly:
Current dollars
1967 dollars
Spendable weekly:«
Current dollars
1967 dollars
Wholesale price index
4.8
2.2
5.2
-.2
6.9
4.9
4.0
8.4
6.8
-4.7
.8
9.2
4.5
-.7
2.5
21.6
11.9
12.5
2.2
11.0
4.9
Total
3.9
3.6
4.7
-.5
4.0
4.1
2.8
Industrials excluding hides
and skins and lumber
and wood products
Consumer finished goods
excluding food
4.5
4.0
3.6
-.3
3.9
2.9
2.3
2.9
4.0
2.2
-.4
3.3
2.8
2.1
All commodities
Farm products
Processed foods and feeds
Industrial commodities:
Changes in earnings are preliminary.
Adjusted ror overtime (in manufacturing only) and for interindustry shifts.
Data through June.
Gross weekly earnings less social security and income taxes for worker with three dependents. In annualizing the
rates of change the effect of changes in tax rates at the beginning of 1971 and 1972 are taken into account separately.
1
3
3
4
Sources: Department of Labor and Council of Economic Advisers.
The NEP has also brought a pronounced slowdown in the rate of inflation as measured by the GNP deflator (which reflects prices paid by
41
Chart 6
Changes in Wholesale Prices
PERCENT CHANGE FROM 6 MONTHS EARLIER
1968
1969
1970
SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R .
42
1971
1972
governments and businesses as well as by consumers). From the second
quarter of 1970 to the second quarter of 1971—the year preceding the
NEP—the GNP deflator rose 5.2 percent. The effects of the freeze are seen
most clearly in the fourth quarter of 1971, when the inflation rate fell to
1.5 percent. The rate rose to 5.1 percent in the first quarter of this year,
partly because of the expected post-freeze bulge, partly because farm and
food prices rose faster than anticipated, and also because of a Federal pay
raise, which added almost 1-percentage point to the inflation rate. Because
these factors were either not present or were present to a lesser degree, the
rate of inflation fell to 2.1 percent in the second quarter.
We see the same broad pattern with lower rates of inflation if we
examine the deflator for the private nonfarm business sector. This index,
which excludes the effect of Government pay raises, focuses on the sector
that is most important in the wage-price control system. This measure of
price change had risen- at an annual rate of 4.7 percent from the second
quarter of 1970 to the second quarter of 1971. It showed zero change in
the fourth quarter of 1971, rose to 3.6 percent in the first quarter and fell
back to a 1.5-percent annual rate in the second quarter of this year.
One object of the anti-inflation program is to help bring about an increase in real wage rates. However, success of the program clearly required
that the increase of money wage rates be slowed down. This also is being
accomplished. Average hourly earnings (in the private nonfarm economy
adjusted for overtime in manufacturing and for interindustry employment
shifts) rose at the annual rate of 6.5 percent in 1969, 6.8 percent in 1970,
and 7.2 percent in 1971 before the freeze (Table 16 and Chart 7). This
rising trend up to the middle of 1971, probably more than anything else,
created the fear that price inflation would speed up again. Under the NEP
this danger has been averted. From August 1971 to July 1972 the rate of
increase has been 5.5 percent. After the freeze there was a period of catchup
during which wages rose at an annual rate of 10.0 percent. The rate of
increase then subsided to 5.1 percent from February to July.
All of the foregoing constitutes a significant stepdown in the rate of
inflation during the period of the NEP. We have not yet reached our goal
of reasonable, reliable price stability. However, there are many reasons for
confidence that further progress will be made.
1. Productivity—output per inan-hour—is now rising much more rapidly
than at any time in the past 6 years. This is making a powerful contribution
to holding down the rise of unit labor costs, ivhich is the largest component of
total costs and a main determinant of prices in the conditions we now face.
2. The operation of the wage control system is helping to hold wage
increases down to a rate which, together with rapidly rising productivity,
will be consistent with a lower rate of inflation. Wage increases approved
by the Pay Board, excluding cases in which only fringe benefits were raised,
have averaged 5.6 percent through July 14.
43
Chart 7
Changes in Adjusted Hourly Earnings
of Private Nonfarm Production Workers
N O T E . - D A T A R E L A T E T O EARNINGS ADJUSTED F O R OVERTIME
(MANUFACTURING O N L Y ) AND F O R INTERINDUSTRY E M P L O Y M E N T SHIFTS
SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T O F L A B O R .
3. The amount of price increase permitted by the Price Commission each
month has declined drastically since the early days of Phase II. The rate
of price increases permitted as a percent of the sales of the companies that
are afTected by the Commission's new actions each month has been fairly
constant. However, the volume of sales on which applications for price
increases are made and granted has declined sharply since Phase II began.
Thus, what the Price Commission has been adding to the total of price
increases permitted since the beginning of Phase II has dwindled to a small
amount. Companies did not immediately take all of the price increases
permitted by the Commission. However, it is probable that the available
room for further price increases under the permissions that have been
granted has declined substantially.
^
4. The Price Commission regulations have been tightened in a number
of ways. The standard ceiling on average price increases under the term
limit pricing plan has been reduced from 2.0 percent to 1.8 percent. Estimates of future cost increases, which are used as a basis for granting price
increases, are now being calculated from industry average productivity
experience, rather than from each company's estimate of its own productivity
increase, as was done at first.
44
5. The Price Commission's examination of the quarterly returns of large
firms is revealing cases where price increases have caused the profit margin
limitations to be exceeded. In these cases correction is required in the form
of price reductions. Experience with the process will induce more caution in
future pricing. Moreover, the rise of profits associated with the economic
recovery is bringing more companies to the point where the profit-margin
rule limits price increases.
6. A larger flow of cattle to market by early fall is likely to arrest the rise
of meat prices now underway. The President's action in suspending all
quotas on the importation of meat for the remainder of 1972 provides a
further safeguard against continually and rapidly rising meat prices, because
such a rise would then attract a larger supply of meat from abroad. The
decision to reduce stocks of meat held by the Department of Defense will
also contribute to checking the rise of meat prices.
7. Special measures have been taken to resist price increases in two other
problem areas. Limitations have been placed on the export of hides in order
to hold down domestic prices of hides, leather, and, ultimately, shoes. The
Forest Service is increasing the harvesting of timber in the national forests.
The Cost of Living Council has restored price control over a number of small
dealers in lumber who had previously been exempted under the provisions
applying to small businesses generally.
8. The Cost of Living Council, the Price Commission, and the Pay Board
are prepared to adapt their policies as necessary to apply die control system
more effectively to changing conditions.
But when all these factors are taken into account, it remains true that
continued progress in the fight against inflation depends critically on
moderation in the growth of demand. When demand is growing moderately
controls can help move the inflation rate down to the pace consistent with
the moderate growth of demand. When demand is rising excessively the
controls will not prevent rapid inflation for long. That is why restraint of
rising budget expenditures has now become the key requirement for success
of the anti-inflation effort. We must avoid a repetition of the 1965-68 slide
into laiger and larger deficits even under conditions of high employment
which set off the inflation we are still fighting.
CONTROLS AND O U T P U T
One of the great dangers of price and wage control systems is that they
may achieve some progress in checking inflation but at the expense of considerable loss of real output. There are three main ways in which this loss
of output can occur. Restraint on profits, or uncertainty about the restraint
on profits, can discourage business investment. The tying of permitted price
increases to cost increases, which seems to be an inevitable feature of pricecontrol systems, creates a situation in which increasing costs may be free,
or at least not very expensive, for a firm, and this operates against efTorts
to raise productivity. Finally, a price-wage control system may generate wide
45
spread and long-lasting strikes, because controversies over pay come to
involve principles of very general applicability on which neither the workers
nor the Government is willing to retreat.
These dangers have been avoided so far in the control system. Business
plans for investment and actual expenditures for investment have increased
sharply since the system was inaugurated. The rise of productivity has been
large and has accelerated during the period of the controls. In the first 6
months of 1972 the number of workers involved in strikes, the number of
man-days lost, and the percent of working time lost, were at their lowest
levels in many years.
This favorable outcome has been the result of the conditions under which
the control system has operated. Because demand conditions have not always
been sufficiently strong to permit businesses to realize in the market all the
price increases the Price Commission would permit, and, because the program
is expected to be temporary, businesses could not afford extravagant cost
increases. Because increasing volume permitted an increase of profits, and
also because of the temporary character of the system, business investment
has not been discouraged. And because the operation of the system and the
rise of productivity have permitted large gains in workers' real incomes, as
well as because the national interest in fighting inflation has been recognized,
we have enjoyed industrial peace.
In some degree all of these favorable factors have been unusual and
probably temporary. This is a reason for caution in drawing longer-run
conclusions about the effects of the controls from our experience so far.
THE FAIRNESS OF CONTROLS
Controlling prices and wages involves the Government heavily in determining the relations between wages and profits in general and in particular
industries and sectors and in many other aspccts of the distribution of income. This Government involvement raises the question of the fairness of
the outcome. The meaning of the question itself is difficult because, of course,
people will differ about what a fair outcome would be.
A basic principle of the system of controls is that it should try to avoid
changing the distribution of income that would occur in the course of a
strong noninfiationary expansion, while at the same time the rise of money
incomes in general must be held down if the inflation is to be curbed. The
general rules of the Price Commission and the Pay Board seem consistent
with this principle. They establish a basic standard for pay increases equal
to the normal increase in productivity plus the target rate of increase of
consumer prices. They establish a basic standard for price increases in
proportion to cost increases, subject to a further limit that profit margins
should not exceed the company's experience in the best 2 of the 3 years
preceding the freeze.
If these standards were precisely and universally followed, the outcome
would be somewhere between preservation of the relative shares of wages
46
and profits as they existed at the beginning of the program and a moderate
increase in the profits share such as ordinarily occurs in a business recovery
although possibly of smaller size. However, these standards do not by themselves determine the outcome. There are many cases in which the market
does not permit wages or prices to rise as much as the standards would
permit. Also, there are a number of exceptions to the basic standard on
both the price and wage side and there are significant areas of exemption
from the controls.
However, the measurable behavior of the economy does not seem inconsistent with the general standard of fairness set forth above, except that the
relative rise of profits has been rather low. Up to the first quarter of 1972
(second quarter figures are not yet available), the rise of profits had been
much smaller relative to the rise of GNP than at the same stage of any of
the previous postwar recoveries (Table 17). Whether this was due to the
controls is uncertain. Also, in the first quarter of 1972 compensation of employees equaled 66.4 percent of the gross product of corporations, the same as
in the prefreeze quarter and higher than in any year between 1947 and
1969 inclusive (Table 14). Real hourly earnings have risen at an annual rate
of 2.7 percent during the Economic Stabilization Program and 4.0 percent
during Phase II, compared to an average rate of 1.7 percent from 1960 to
1970.
TABLE 17.—Profits and GNP in recoveries
Increase after five quarters | Increase in
(billions of dollars)
|I profits as
percent of
t
i1
increase in
before |
GNP
GNP
11 Profits
taxes >
j
1
Quarter of trough
1949 IV
63.0
R l "
1954 III
44.1
9.9
22.4
1958 12.
52.2
18.8
36.0
53.6
9.9
18.5
119.4
H.9
12.5
1961 1
1970 I V . . . .
'
22.4
:1 i v v u u « wveniory valuation adjustment.
Shifted back from second quarter 1958 in order to avoid steel strike quarter (1959 III).
Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers.
ADMINISTERING THE ECONOMIC STABILIZATION PROGRAM
The wage-price control system was designed for simplicity of administration as compared with those of World War II and the Korean war. As of
mid-1972, direct employment in the Economic Stabilization Program
totaled less than 1,000 persons with 600 on the Price Commission staff, 200
on the Pay Board, and 100 on the Cost of Living Council. There were a few
additional workers detailed to these bodies from other agencies, and the
Internal Revenue Service had assigned approximately 3,000 of its regular
employees to ESP service and compliance work.
Continuing efforts are being made to reduce the administrative load on
the control agencies as well as the burden of reporting on business. One
47
approach has been to exempt smaller businesses from controls to the extent
such exemptions are consistent with the goal of reducing inflation. The Economic Stabilization Act, in fact, requires such exemptions. The Cost of
Living Council first exempted retailers with annual revenues of $100,000 or
less; this group of 1.5 million firms represented 75 percent of the Nation's
retail firms but accounted for only 15 percent of all retail sales. About half
of these exempted retailers had no employees. In a further action, retailers
with annual sales of $200,000 or less were relieved from the requirement of
posting their base prices.
Later, the Cost of Living Council exempted business firms with 60 or fewer
employees except those in the health and construction industries. Employees
of such firms are exempt from wage controls except when more than 50 percent of them arc affected by an employment contract affecting more than 60
workers. This exemption freed 5 million firms and 19 million employees
from the control system, leaving under the ESP 1.5 million firms with $1,300
billion (72 percent of total) annual sales and 53 million (74 percent of
total) employees. An exemption from wage controls was also given to 378,000
employees of 67,500 small local government units. Early in July the Cost of
Living Council, in its first such reversal, reimposed controls on all firms in
the lumber industry with sales of $100,000 or more of lumber products. This
action stemmed from the rapid runup of lumber and plywood prices, particularly those of small exempt firms.
The exemption of numerous small businesses was not intended as a loosening of the controls. Instead it was intended to increase the effectiveness of
the controls, by permitting concentration of more attention on the larger
economic units whose market behavior would discipline the others. Where
this process of market competition did not seem to be working adequately, as
in the case of lumber, controls were restored.
The administrative burden on the ESP has declined quite steadily through
1972, measured in terms of the public's complaints and requests for information. The total number of such inquiries declined from an average of
more than 25,000 per day at the beginning of Phase II to approximately
7,500 per day in early July. Complaints of alleged violations declined from a
peak of more than 1,100 per day in early January to the 300-400 range by
midyear. The backlog of such complaints remaining to be resolved had also
declined—from more than 12,000 in January to about 6,000 at midyear.
*
*
*
To recapitulate, the price and wage control system has worked well as one
ingredient in the New Economic Policy. It has contributed to a s i g n i f i c a n t
lowering of the rate of inflation and to a lessening of the anxiety about rising
prices. It has done this without checking vigorous recovery of the economy.
It has not prevented a wide and generally equitable sharing of the fruits
of rising productivity. It has not fastened massive bureaucracy on the economic system. It has not demonstrated its permanent utility or feasibility
as part of the American economic system, but it is playing constructively
the temporary and limited role for which it was intended.
48
III. The International Economy
O
NE OF the objectives of the New Economic Policy announced
by President Nixon a year ago on August 15 was to reestablish a
strong balance-of-payments position for the United States. A fundamental
improvement in the U.S. balance of payments was needed both to give
Americans a renewed sense of confidence in their economy and to assure
the rest of the world of the ability of the United States to discharge its
international commitments and responsibilities.
The objective of a significant improvement in the U.S. balance of payments is a difficult one. Because of the size of the U.S. economy and its
importance in international trade and investment, an improvement in the
U.S. balance of payments cannot be achieved without fundamental adjustments by other countries. Moreover, the role of the dollar as the world's
primary reserve currency makes it impossible to find a lasting solution to
the dollar problem without institutional reforms of the international monetary system as a whole and, because of the close relationship between monetary and trade flows, of the international trading system as well. These various
links, between short-term adjustment and long-term reform, between monetary and trade arrangements, between U.S. policies and objectives and
those of a large number of foreign governments, make the strengthening of
the dollar a difficult and time-consuming process.
The August 15 measures were designed to make an initial contribution
to the short-term adjustment that would be required and to confront the
world with the multilateral and comprehensive nature of the U.S. balanceof-payments crisis. The measures taken with this objective in mind were the
suspension of dollar convertibility, a temporary surcharge of up to 10 percent on U.S. imports, and a 10-percent reduction in U.S. foreign assistance.
In addition, it was expected that complementary measures primarily designed to achieve domestic stabilization objectives would also tend to improve
the long-term competitive position of the United States.
During the period following the actions of August 15, the United States
engaged in active consultation with other governments in order to reach
a common understanding of the causes of the current crisis and the elements
of a possible solution. On December 17-18, 1971, the finance ministers of
the major industrial countries met at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington to work out an interim basis for conducting international economic
relations.
The major elements of the agreement reached in the context of that meeting on December 18 were:
—Reestablishment of fixed exchange rates with an effective devaluation of the foreign exchange value of the dollar of about 12 percent.
49
The 12-percent devaluation is calculated on the basis of U.S. trade
with member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) excluding Canada, whose currency continued to float. This devaluation was achieved partly through a
7.9-percent devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold and partly
through an upward revaluation of certain other major currencies
in terms of gold. The change in the gold value of the dollar from
$35 to $38 per ounce was passed by the Congress and signed into law
on March 31,1972.
—A provisional increase in the width of the band within which exchange rates are free to move from 1 percent on either side of parity
to 2.25 percent above or below the rates established by the currency
realignment.
—Suppression of the U.S. surcharge on imported goods and of the
provision which excluded foreign capital goods from the benefits
of the job development tax credit.
—Agreement in principle to negotiate certain short-term trade issues of
particular concern to the United States.
—Recognition of the relevance of trade arrangements in assuring
equilibrium in the international economy.
—Agreement on the need for long-term reform of the international
monetary and trading systems.
THE U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN 1972
The Smithsonian agreement provided the basis for a turnaround in the
U.S.-payments position. It was generally recognized, however, that the
turnaround would be difficult and take time because it involved major
economic adjustments. Moreover, in the short run, the devaluation of the
dollar was expected to cause a further deterioration in the U.S. trade balance. The reason is that a devaluation has the immediate effect of raising
the dollar prices of imported goods and thus increasing the dollar cost of the
same volume of imports. Only later do real trade flows begin to respond to the
relative price shifts.
Divergent cyclical trends in the United States and in other countries
during the first half of 1972 also contributed to the deterioration in our
trade balance. In the United States, income has continued to expand as the
Government pursued a policy geared to stimulating real growth and employment. Expansion of personal consumption expenditures at an annual
rate of 8.4 percent from the third quarter of 1971 to the second quarter of
1972 created an increasing demand for imported consumer goods, while
the accelerating recovery also stimulated the demand for imported raw
materials and machinery used in domestic production. On the other hand,
demand abroad for U.S. exports has been sluggish because efforts to dampen
inflationary pressures have led to economic slack in a number of other indus
50
trial countries. These cyclical influences on the U.S. trade balancc have
been superimposed on what appears to have been a secular increase in the
desire of Americans to consume imported goods.
As a result of the various pressures, the merchandise trade balance continued to deteriorate from a quarterly deficit of $1.5 billion in the last quarter
of 1971 to a deficit of $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 1972, on a seasonally
adjusted basis (Table 18). In the second quarter the merchandise trade
deficit widened further, to $2.0 billion. However, while the nominal trade
balance has thus continued to deteriorate, there have been a number of
indications that this deterioration may have been due in part to the perverse
terms-of-trade effect of the change in the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
This effect can be seen in the accelerated rise in the dollar cost of buying imported goods. From December 1971 to May 1972, import prices increased
by 5.7 percent, while export prices increased by 0.9 percent. These figures
suggest the possibility that the trade balance in real, as distinct from money,
terms may no longer be deteriorating.
TABLE IB.—U.S. balance of payments, 19711-1972
II
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted quarterly totals|
Quarter
Merchandise
trade
balance"
Balance
on goods and
services is
Balance
on current
account and
long*term
capital
Balance
on current
account'
1971:1
ii
Ill
IV
289
-1,012
—472
—1,494
1,136
36
91
-537
345
-810
-855
—1,529
1972:1
II«
-1,673
—1,960
-1,147
-2,094
Net liquidity
balance
Official
reserve
transactions
balance
-1,279
-2,999
—3,296
-1,802
—2,577
-5,721
-9,380
-4,329
-5,425
-6.466
-11,931
-5,948
-3,241
-3,112
-3,277
1
J Excludes transfers of goods under military grants.
I Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
* Equal to net exports of goods and services in national income and product accounts of the United States when converted
to an annual rate basis. See Table 19.
«Excludes military grants.
3
Preliminary.
Note.—For more detail on balance of payments on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, see Table A-40.
Source: Department of Commerce.
The balance on goods and services has shown the same trend as the merchandise trade balance (Table 19). In terms of current dollars, the deficit
on goods and services (national income and product accounts basis) increased from an annual rate of $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 1971 to
$4.6 billion in the first quarter of 1972 and $4.9 billion in the second quarter.
When these money value figures are converted into constant dollars, however, the pattern is somewhat different. In terms of 1958 dollars, the deficit
widened from an annual rate of $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 1971
to $3.3 billion in the first quarter of 1972 and then narrowed to $2.4 billion
in the second quarter of 1972.
51
TABLE 19.—Exports and imports of goods and services in current and 1958 dollars,
Current do.lars
Quarter
Net exports
of goods
and services
|
Imports
Exports
19711-197211
1958 dollars
1 Net exports
{ of goods
1 and services
i
Imports
Exports
Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates
1971: 1
II
II I
IV
4.5
.1
.4
-2.1
66.3
66.7
68.5
63.0
61.8
66.6
68.2!
65.1 j
2.7
-.7
.1
-1.8
53.0
53.0
54.4
49.9
1972: 1
IM
-4.6
-4.9
70.7
70.0
75.3
74.9 j
-3.3
—2.4
55.5
54.4
50.3
53.8
54.3
51.7
58.9
56.8
i1
Percent change from preceding quarter
1971: 1
II
Ill
IV
4.9
.6
2.7
-8.0
2.3 j
7.8 !
2.4 l
-4.5 •
1.7
.0
2.6
-8.3
0.4
7.0
.9
-4.8
1972: 1
IM
12.2
-1.0
,5.7!
11.2
-2.0
13.9
-3.6
-.5 i
1
i Preliminary.
Note.—Data in this table are as shown in the national income and product accounts of the United States.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
There are a number of reasons to believe that the trade balance will begin
to improve not only in real terms but in nominal terms as well. The changes
in the relative prices of foreign and domestic goods brought about by the
Smithsonian realignment are being reinforced by divergent price trends.
Wholesale and/or consumer prices have recently tended to rise more rapidly
in Europe and Japan than in the United States. As producers and consumers
respond fully to these relative increases in the prices of foreign as compared
to U.S. goods, the rapid growth of imports should slow down while the
growth of exports should accelerate. Finally, there arc indications of a
resurgence of demand in a number of our partner countries, particularly
in Germany and Japan, which should provide a further boost to U.S. exports.
The balance on private long-term capital flows was in deficit by $0.8 billion in the first quarter of 1972, as compared to a surplus of $0.3 billion in
the last quarter of 1971, and a deficit of $1.9 billion in the third quarter of
1971. Special yearend reflows make it difficult to draw firm conclusions
about these shifts.
Net short-term capital outflows declined substantially during the first
quarter of 1972. Including errors and omissions, net outflows of short-term
capital were only $0.2 billion, compared to outflows of $4.3 billion in the
previous quarter and an average quarterly outflow of $5.3 billion for 1971
as a whole. Although the small net outflow of short-term funds was a significant improvement over the large outflows in previous quarters, it was a
disappointment to those who had expected a substantial reflow of speculative
funds immediately after the Smithsonian realignment of exchange rates.
52
Several factors operated against such an immediate reflow. There was continued uncertainty regarding future developments in the international monetary system and about the operation of the interim arrangements established
under the Smithsonian agreement. In addition, the continued divergence of
credit market conditions in the United States and Europe in the first part of
the year provided an incentive to keep short-term funds in Europe.
Because the United States experienced a deficit on current as well as on
capital account, the official reserve transactions balance remained in deficit
by $3.3 billion in the first quarter of 1972, as compared to a deficit of $5.9
billion in the fourth quarter of 1971 (Table 18). After mid-March, however,
the balance on official reserve transactions began to improve, probably moving into a surplus position between about mid-April and early June, as the
result of net inflows of short-term capital.
In the latter part of June the relative calm which had prevailed in the
foreign exchange markets since March was interrupted by a sharp outbreak
of speculation against the British pound. The substantial outflows of shortterm funds that resulted created a large drain on British reserves. Faced with
European Exchange Rate Movements
Within the Smithsonian Band
PERCENT DEVIATION
FROM SMITHSONIAN RATES
1972
• E F F E C T O F S T E R L I N G CRISIS
NOTE
C R E F E R S T O T H E E U R O P E A N COMMUNITIES
SOURCE: TREASURY D E P A R T M E N T .
53
DATA R E L A T E TO FRIDAY RATES
the prospect of continued reserve losses, the British Government announced on June 23 that the pound would be allowed to float outside both
the 254-percent band maintained by the European Communities (EC) and
the wider 4/ 2 -percent band established in the Smithsonian agreement
(Chart 8).
The floating of the British pound created uncertainty regarding the whole
structure of exchange rates agreed upon at the Smithsonian, in particular
regarding the exchange rates between the dollar and a number of other currencies. These uncertainties led to a large movement of short-term funds
from the United States to Europe and Japan, and over the next several
weeks European central banks purchased large amounts of dollars to prevent further appreciation of their currencies. As the determination of governments to defend the Smithsonian rates became apparent, however, speculation died down. Confidence in the Smithsonian agreement was further
strengthened recently when the United States also intervened in the exchange markets, purchasing a limited amount of dollars with foreign currencies. This action reflects the willingness of the United States to intervene
in exchange markets when such action seems desirable to help deal with
speculative pressures.
THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM
When President Nixon announced the suspension of dollar convertibility
into gold on August 15 of last year, this action ended the basis for the golddollar standard and brought to a head the need for a major reform of the
international monetary system. During the period following the actions of
August 15, the United States engaged in active multilateral consultations
to reestablish an interim basis for conducting international monetary relations and prepare the groundwork for more long-term reforms of the international monetary system. These informal discussions led to the meeting of
the Group of Ten finance ministers and central bank governors at the
Smithsonian Institution in Washington on December 17-18,1971.
The Smithsonian agreement was a milestone in international monetary
relations. More than at any previous time in the postwar period, the major
countries showed themselves willing to recognize that major disturbances in
the international monetary system are a multilateral problem that can be
solved only through joint action in a cooperative spirit. More specifically, it
was recognized that the elimination of the U.S. deficit was a problem that
had to be examined in the light of the exchange rates maintained between
other currencies and the U.S. dollar. A precedent was thus created for cooperative action by both deficit and surplus countries to bring about adjustments to major imbalances in international payments. Moreover, the fact
that the realignment of exchange rates was based not on unilateral changes
in the value of individual currencies but on multilateral consultation and
negotiation gave concrete recognition to the fact that changes in exchange
54
rates are not only the concern of the country initiating such a change.
For these reasons, the Smithsonian agreement has important implications
for the future institutional development of the international monetary
system.
In the months since the Smithsonian agreement was signed, the international monetary system has continued to change and evolve in a number of
important ways. In April of this year the member and applicant countries
of the EC agreed to intervene with each other's currencies in the foreign
exchange markets in order to maintain among themselves a band only onehalf as wide as the new 4 J/fc-percent band around the dollar. This narrowed
intra-Europcan band of fluctuation, which has been called the "EC snake in
the Smithsonian tunnel," is regarded by the EC countries as the first step
toward ultimate fixity of exchange rates and monetary union among the
member countries.
In June of this year, in response to accelerating market pressures, the
British authorities allowed the pound sterling to float, and its value soon
dropped below the floor of both the EC snake and the Smithsonian tunnel.
This break in the pattern of exchange rates established at the Smithsonian
was translated into pressure on the dollar as well as on a number of other
European currencies, and resulted in a temporary breach of both the EC
and the Smithsonian limits by several currencies.
Another development has been a widespread use of foreign exchange controls by a number of the major surplus countries in an effort to reduce inflows
of short-term funds. One variant of such controls is the two-tier foreign
exchange market, in which the exchange rate for trade transactions is supported at a fixed rate by government intervention, while the exchange rate
for capital transactions is allowed to float. The proliferation of foreign exchange control measures poses a number of problems. First, it could potentially undermine the long-term trend toward liberalization of international
trade and payments over the postwar period. Second, by artificially distorting
movements in the capital account, it tends to hide the magnitude of the
current-account adjustment required to reestablish underlying equilibrium
in the U.S. balance of payments. At the same time, it must be recognized that
large movements of short-term liquid capital from one country to another,
particularly at times of unrest in the foreign exchange markets, pose difficult
problems for the management of domestic monetary policy in a number of
countries. It is to be hoped that, in developing a new international monetary
system, ways will be found to deal with the problem of large fluctuations in
short-term capital movements without the widespread use of capital controls.
The pressure of these events reinforces the need to proceed with the
long-term reform of the international monetary system. The United States
has played a leading role in international planning for a negotiating framework for such reforms.
An early concern was, of course, the question of appropriate and effective
institutional arrangements. During the postwar period a number of organizational arrangements were developed to facilitate consultation and coopera
55
tion among governments on international monetary questions. While these
organizations continue to play an important role in preserving the basis
for cooperation, none of them was regarded as the appropriate forum for
negotiating the long-term reforms of the international monetary system.
For this purpose, a new forum is being set up: A committee of 20 ministeriallevel representatives based on the representation of countries and groups of
countries on the Board of Executive Directors of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF). This committee, which is expected to hold its first meeting at
the IMF annual meeting in September, will not only consider reforms of the
international monetary system but will also examine related issues involving
trade, capital flows, international investment, and development assistance.
The breadth of the proposed mandate of the committee of 20 reflects
recognition of the close interrelationship among various aspects of the international economy. There is a clear link between the efficient functioning of
the international trading system and the stability of the international monetary system, in the sense that a malfunctioning of one system will cause
difficulties in the other as well. If the monetary adjustment process fails
to function efficiently, as we saw during the late 1960's, trade flows are
distorted and countries may feel the need increasingly to resort to
commercial policy measures to prevent excessive disruption of certain industries. Conversely, trade policies can either offset or reinforce the monetary adjustment process. Such relationships need to be carefully examined
in order to assure the consistency and mutually supportive character of
the new rules governing the international trading and monetary systems. To
facilitate such examination, it was agreed at the ministerial meeting of the
OECD in May that the OECD would provide one useful meeting ground
for exploring related trade, monetary, and investment questions.
The upcoming monetary negotiations should provide a basis for a renewed momentum toward a liberal world order, in which each nation
has a fair opportunity to partake in international trade and investment
unimpeded by a growing network of artificial barriers. This goal implies
an international monetary system which facilitates the prompt adjustment
of payments imbalances, without disrupting either domestic economic
policies or the open, market-directed flow of goods and capital among all
countries on a nondiscriminatory basis. The adjustment process should
promote the efficient allocation of resources and should aim at maximizing
the volume of market-directed world trade and investment. Whatever the
exact nature of the new exchange-rate mechanism, it will have to be more
flexible in practice than before and not only permit but stimulate both
surplus and deficit countries to adapt promptly and smoothly to changes
in economic conditions.
This implies getting away from the idea that "balance-of-payments discipline" applies uniquely to deficit countries. It also means that the United
States should have more scope to bring its external payments position into
equilibrium without having to impose undesirable restrictions on inter-
56
national transactions. Such greater symmetry in the ability to initiate and
implement corrective actions would give the United States effective means
to prevent a deterioration of its balance-of-payments position which could
otherwise result if there were a tendency for countries to devalue more
readily than to revalue when faced with fundamental payments imbalances.
The new international monetary system must also have effective means
of reconciling balance of payments and/or reserve objectives among countries. In particular, it should be noted that the net surplus on goods and
services of the developed countries cannot be larger than the net amount
of economic assistance and private capital transferred to the less developed
countries. Also, if multilateral control of the total volume of global reserve creation should become desirable, this would have implications for
the degree to which individual countries are free to set their own reserve
targets.
INITIATIVES FOR TRADE NEGOTIATIONS
The countries of the free world have prospered in the postwar period as
a result of the gradual dismantling of barriers to the market-directed exchange of goods. Recently, however, there have been mounting indications
that the dismantling of trade restrictions has reached a standstill. Governments of many countries are increasingly intervening in markets through
measures that interfere with or distort trade flows. Without strong new
commitments on a multilateral basis, there is a definite prospect that, through
a cumulation of individual actions, a reversal of the gains that had been
achieved since World War II will be set in motion. The August 15 measures
and subsequent negotiations recognized the emerging stresses in the international trading system. One of the conclusions sought and achieved at the
Smithsonian meeting was a declaration of commitment to. initiate broadbased trade negotiations in 1973, to be supplemented by shorter-term actions
during 1972.
On the basis of subsequent discussions, Japan and the European Com*
munities agreed to several immediate liberalization measures, including the
elimination or reduction of tariffs on a number of industrial and agricultural
products, and the modification of certain nontariff barriers to U.S. trade.
Agreement was also reached on the desirability of long-term reforms of
the international trading system.
The challenge posed by comprehensive trade negotiations is considerable.
In most cases, the trade barriers that remain after earlier rounds of trade
liberalization are those which are most sensitive for domestic political, social,
or national security reasons. Furthermore, unlike previous rounds of trade
liberalization, any new round will no longer be exclusively focused on the
reduction of tariffs, but will also cover a wide-ranging spectrum of nontariff barriers (NTB's). NTB's are measures which distort trade, such as:
( a ) Quotas which protect particular economic sectors considered sensitive
for domestic reasons; (b) design or performance standards which are often
57
discriminatory against foreign goods; (c) restrictive government procurement regulations; and (d) subsidies to exports. Negotiations covering such
a wide spectrum of issues will be difficult for a number of reasons: The
distinction between a protective barrier and legitimate domestic social policy
is not always clear; many of these practices are imbedded in domestic laws;
there is no simple basis for measuring reciprocity in tradeoffs between one
type of NTB against another; and the feasible time schedule for concluding
negotiations and implementing agreements is likely to vary widely as between one NTB and another.
In preparation for comprehensive trade negotiations, the GATT has
compiled a massive inventor/ of NTB's over the last several years and
recently the member countries have begun intensive work to define possible
solutions. This effort has been supplemented by specific studies in the OECD
on such questions as government procurement policies. In the United States,
many industrial organizations, labor unions, and congressional committees
have engaged in extensive examination of future possibilities for trade
policy and trade negotiations. The President also received the report of his
Commission on International Trade and Investment Policy, which laid
down far-reaching recommendations for trade negotiations in the 1970's.
These recommendations are being given intensive consideration by the
executive branch. Finally, a group of experts drawn from the major OECD
countries has been exploring some of the possible dimensions of a new
round of international trade negotiations. This group, the OECD High
Level Trade Group, will shortly issue a report.
In order to facilitate next year's negotiations, and especially to insure
the widest possible support, the United States is exploring with other governments the agenda and the philosophy which might fit such negotiations.
These preliminary talks are covering such topics as organizational arrangements for the negotiations, methods of coordinating the separate negotiations covering different types of trade barriers, and a timetable for the
negotiations.
The U.S. Government is in the process of formulating a comprehensive
position on the best approach to the negotiations. Past experience has demonstrated the value of certain general interrelated principles.
First, a trade agreement should be comprehensive, in the sense that it
should cover all economic sectors and all forms of trade barriers. Only a
comprehensive agreement can provide an adequate political basis, both
domestically and internationally, for substantial trade liberalization. From
the point of view of the United States, it is particularly important that such
negotiations include agricultural as well as industrial trade. Abundant natural
resources and advanced farm technology' and management give this country
a comparative advantage which makes our farm products highly competitive
in world markets. Despite interruptions from dock strikes, our agricultural
exports are estimated to have reached an all-time high of $8 billion in the
past fiscal year. Rationalization and liberalization of the agricultural polios
58
and the related restrictive import policies followed by most industrialized
countries would enable us to realize our full potential for trade in this
important sector.
The trade negotiations should also result in a system which places maximum reliance on market-directed trade. Time and again, it has been shown
that market-based arrangements are most successful because they generally
lead to the maximum gains from trade and because they are most in accord
with the pattern of economic activity in the market-directed economies.
In this respect, trade policies which arc designed to insulate major economic
sectors permanently from market forces and the international adjustment
process not only run counter to the principles of international efficiency
but also undermine the process of orderly and timely adjustment of the
international economic system as a whole.
Efforts to liberalize trade must also aim at the creation of a fairer system
of rules, in which the conditions of doing business internationally are not
subject to arbitrary discrimination and excessive administrative discretion
in the handling of imports, government purchases, domestic standards, and
related matters. Thus we seek both a freer and a fairer system of world trade,
in which the rules are understood and the practices are open, visible, and
nondiscriminatory.
The trade agreement should place the real costs of domestic social programs on the country deciding to implement them. Only such a principle
can provide a basis for separating legitimate aspects of domestic social
policies from practices disruptive of trade in such areas as environmental,
safety, and health standards. It needs to be realized, however, that in some
areas a greater harmonization of social policies may become desirable in
order to avoid trade-distorting effects.
The trade agreement reached should also include a safeguard system that
gives economically sensitive industries in participating countries sufficient
time to adjust to rapid shifts in patterns of production or consumption, including trade. Safeguards are necessary in situations where the adjustment
required is too large to be accomplished in a short period of time without
excessive social, personal, and political costs. Such a multilaterally negotiated
safeguard system should include agreed standards for imposing temporary
protection, a procedure for international review, and provisions that prevent
the system from being abused.
Finally, the trade agreement should include an understanding that domestic adjustment programs must complement the safeguard system. Effective
adjustment programs arc essential in order to stimulate the reallocation of
resources which would otherwise require permanent protection from the
pressures of the market. In this respect, we are now exploring new methods
of providing adjustment assistance to those sectors, and especially to those
groups of workers, which are subject to exceptionally rapid adjustment problems as a consequence of import competition. Such adjustment assistance
provisions could also be discussed internationally, but in the final analysis
59
the implementation of changes must come in the form of new legislation
by the Congress.
We also recognize that there is a close and growing mutual interest between
the developed and the developing countries. The latter's dependence on trade
is great, and their exports to developed countries account for four-fifths of
their export earnings. We arc dependent on them for raw materials, and we
increasingly sell to them on a commercial basis. Thus, there are sound
economic reasons of mutual importance to the developed and the developing countries for working towards a system of world trade which provides
adequate opportunity for all countries. Towards this end, we aim to promote trade policies which give increased opportunity for developing countries to compete in world markets, and we will try in future negotiations to
deal effectively with the problems most affecting their export prospects.
The United States has also taken a number of steps recently to reduce
existing barriers to trade with the Communist bloc.
During the Moscow Summit in May, President Nixon and General Secretary Brezhnev agreed to establish a United States-Soviet Commercial Commission that will provide the mechanism for reaching agreement on several
fundamental commercial policy issues.
The Secretary of Commerce represented the United States at the
Commission's initial meeting on July 20. The issues that the Commission
must resolve in order to expand United States-Soviet trade significantly include: Settlement of the Soviet lend-lease debt, most-favored-nation tariff
treatment for Soviet products, credit arrangements, business facilities for
businessmen in each country, and other technical trade matters, such as
arbitration of trade disputes, taxes, patents, and licensing questions. Final
agreements are expected to be announced on several issues this year. Recently, the President announced that the Soviet Union had agreed to purchase $750 million of U.S. grains over the next 3 years. This grain purchase,
the largest one ever made by the Soviet Union, illustrates the mutual gains
that can be achieved from expanded United States-Soviet trade.
Before his recent trip to Peking, the President liberalized controls on U.S.
exports to the People's Republic of China. This action continued a policy
adopted earlier to open the door to economic relations with the Peoples
Republic of China. These new trade initiatives with the U.S.S.R. and China
and with the other Communist countries of Eastern Europe have been made
possible by developments in broader political relations. The specific actions
we have taken are important and necessary first steps in making the rules
that guide East-West trade comparable to the international framework that
has encouraged the impressive growth of trade among non-Communist
countries.
*
*
*
During the past year, the United States has taken major steps to adjust
its economic relationships with other countries to a number of important
changes in the world environment. Among the developments whicn
60
require changes in many of the concepts and institutions of the postwar
international economic system are: The full recovery of economic strength
by Europe and Japan, the increase of economic interdependence among
the industrialized countries; the development of international financial
markets and multinational corporate and financial institutions; and the
opening up of relations between Western countries and the Communist
bloc. President Nixon's actions of last August 15 and the subsequent Smithsonian agreement created the basis for a new approach adapted to these
developments.
The development of a new international economic strategy in a period
of creative change poses special challenges. Fundamental changes in international economic relationships strongly affect the domestic economy, necessitating active coordination of foreign with domestic economic policy
measures. The relationships between international trade and monetary
arrangements also require coordination of policies in these traditionally
separate areas. Finally, the growing importance of economic factors in international relationships makes it nccessarv to coordinate international economic policies with broader foreign policy. The Council on International
Economic Policy was created to meet these challenges. It is playing a key
role in managing the foreign economic policies of the United States in this
period of transition and in developing a coherent strategy for the future.
The United States is prepared to play a leading role in building an international economic system that can meet the challenges of the 1970's. The
goal is a world in which all countries can benefit from international trade
and investment to the maximum extent possible. For economic relations
among the market-directed economies, this implies an open, nondiscriminatory' system in which the pattern and volume of trade and investment is
determined by market forces. l or economic relations between the market
economies and centrally-planned economies, this implies a system that
allows for trade and investment on a mutually beneficial basis.
61
Appendix A
STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION
63
CONTENTS
National income or expenditure:
page
A-l. Gross national product or expenditure, 1950-72
67
A-2. Gross national product or expenditure in 1958 dollars, amount and
percent change, 1950-72
68
A-3. Implicit price deflators and alternative price measures of gross national product and gross private product, 1950-72
70
A-4. Gross product originating in nonfinancial corporations and dollar
71
costs per unit of output, 1950-72
A-5. Personal consumption expenditures, 1950-72
72
A-6. Gross private domestic investment, 1950-72
73
A-7. National income by type of income, 1950-72
74
A-8. Profits before and after taxes, all private corporations, 1950-72
75
A-9. Disposition of personal income, 1950-72
76
A-10. Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures, in current and 1958 dollars, 1950-72
77
A - l l . Sources of personal income, 1950-72
78
A-12. Number and money income (in 1971 dollars) of families and unrelated individuals, by race of head, 1950-71
80
Employment, wages, and productivity:
A-l3. Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1950-72
81
A-14. Selected unemployment rates, 1950-72
82
A-l5. Unemployment by duration, 1950-72
83
A-16. Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1950-72.
84
A-l 7. Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1950-72
85
A-18. Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1950-72
86
A-l 9. Output per man-hour and related data, private economy, 1950-72..
87
A-20. Changes in output per man-hour and related data, private economy,
1950-72
88
Production and business activity:
A-21. Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1950-72
89
A-22. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1950-72
90
A-23. New construction activity, 1950-72
91
A-24. New privately owned housing starts and authorize ions, 1959-72
92
A-25. Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1950-72
93
A-26. Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1950-72
94
A-27. Manufacturers* new and unfilled orders, 1950-72
95
Prices:
A-28. Consumer price indexes, major groups, 1950-72
96
A-29. Percent changes in consumer price indexes, major groups, 1950-72..
97
A-30. Wholesale price indexes, major groups, 1950-72
98
A-31. Percent changes in wholesale price indexes, major groups, 1950-72..
99
65
Money stock, interest rates, and debt:
Pace
A-32. Money stock measures, 1950-72
100
A-33. Bond yields and interest rates, 1950-72
101
A-34. Net public and private debt, 1950-71
102
Government finance:
A-35. Federal budget receipts and outlays, 1950-73
103
A-36. Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the
national income and product accounts, 1950-72
104
A-37. Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector of
the national income and product accounts, 1950-72
105
Agriculture:
A-38. Income of farm people and farmers, 1950-72
106
A-39. Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio,
1950-72
107
Balance of international payments:
A-40. U.S. balance of payments, 1950-72
108
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
9 Preliminary.
__ Not available (also, not applicable).
66
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE
TABLE A-L.—-Gross national product or expenditure,
1950-72
(Billions off dollars]
Total
gross
national
product
Parsonal
consumption
expenditures 1
Gross
private
domestic
investment 2
Net
exports
of goods
and
services
Government purchases of goods and servi:ess
Federal
Tout
Total
National
defense«
Other
State
and
local
284.8
328.4
345.5
364.6
364.8
191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
54.1
59.3
51.9
52.6
51.7
1.8
3.7
2.2
.4
1.8
37.9
59.1
74.7
81.6
74.8
18.4
37.7
51.8
57.0
47.4
14.1
33.6
45.9
48.7
41.2
4.3
4.1
5.9
8.4
6.2
19.5
21.5
22.9
24.6
27.4
398.0
419.2
441.1
447.3
483.7
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2
67.4
70.0
67.9
60.9
75.3
2.0
74.2
78.6
85.1
94.2
97.0
44.1
45.6
49.5
53.6
53.7
38.6
43.3
44.2
45.9
45.0
5.5
5.3
5.3
7.7
7.6
30.1
33.0
35.6
40.6
43.3
503.7
520.1
560.3
590.5
632.4
325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
74.8
71.7
83.0
87.1
94.0
4.0
5.6
5.1
93.6
107.6
117.1
122.5
128.7
53.5
57.4
63.4
64.2
65.2
44.9
47.8
51.6
50.8
510
11.8
8.6
9.6
13.5
15.2
45.1
53.2
53.7
58.2
63.5
684.9
749.9
793.9
864.2
930.3
432.8
466.3
492.1
536.2
579.5
108.1
121.4
116.6
126.0 I
139.0
6.9
5.2
2.5
1.9
137.0
155.8
183.1
193.6
210.0
66.9
77.8
93.7
98.8
98.8
53.1
60.7
72.4
78.3
78.4
16.8
17.1
18.4
23.5
20.4
70.1
79.0
83.4
100.8
111.2
976.4
1,050.4
616.8
664.9
137.1
152.0
3.6
.7
219.0
232.8
95.5
97.8 i
75.1
71.4
21.5
26.3
122.5
135.0
4.0
5.7
2.2
.1
5.9
8.5
5.3
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
958.0
971.7
986.3
989.7
604.1
613.4
623.0
626.5
132.9
137.7
139.9
137.8
3.6
3.9
4.0
2.8
217.3
216.7
219.5
222.6
99.7
96.2
95.2
95.0
78.9
74.7
73.8
72.9
20.9
21.6
21.4
22.1
117.6
120.5
124.3
127.6
.
.
•
.
1,023.4
1.043.0
1,056.9
1,078.1
648.0
660.4
670.7
680.5
143.9
153.0
152.2
158.8
4.5
.1
.4
-2.1
227.0
229.5
233.6
240.9
96.2
96.3
97.9
100.7
72.5
71.2
70.1
71.9
23.7
25.0
27.8
28.7
130.8
133.3
135.7
140.2
.
-
1,109.1
1.139.0
696.1
712.5
168.1
176.8
—4.6
-4.9
249.4
254.6
105.7
108.2
76.7
78.6
28.9
29.6
143.7
146.4
>s!J Tahla 5 " 1 1 ? S e ! a i ! e 2 components.
j g U f G o ^ ^ t ^
components.
m
«nl K e ^ f y ^
^ n a t i o n a l defense classification in the "Budget of the United States Govern-
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
67
TABLE A-2 —Gross national product or expenditure in 1958 dollars, amount and percent change,
1950-72
{Amounts in billions of 1958 dollars)
Personal consumption
expenditures
Year or
quarter
Total
I gross
national
product
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment
Durable
goods
Total
Nonresidential
Nondurable
goods
Serv- Total
ices
Total
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
37.5
39.6
38.3
40.7
39.6
12.7
14.1
13.7
14.9
15.2
24.8
25.5
24.6
25.8
24.5
23.5
19.5
18.9
19.6
21.7
8.3
10.9
3.3
.9
-2.0
6.4
4.8
1.2
-1.5
4.8
Total
69.3
70.0
60.5
61.2
59.4
61.0
59.0
57.2
60.2
61.4
131.7
136.2
138.7
140.2
146.8
) 99.3
'104.1
.108.0
112.0
jll6.8
75.4
74.3
69.5
60.9
73.6
67,
62.4
68.8
43.9
47.3
47.4
41.6
44.1
16.2
18.5
18.2
16.6
16.2
27.7
28.8
29.1
25.0
27.9
25.1
22.2
68.8
!l21.6
125.6
131.1
137.4
jl44.4
72.4
69.0
79.4
82.5
87.8
68.9
67.0
73.4
76.7
81.9
47.1
45.5
49.7
51.9
57.8
17.4
17.4
17.9
17.9
19.1
29.6
28.1
31.7
34.0
38.7
21.9
21.6
23.8
24.8
24.2
3.5
2.0
22.3
24.0
22.6
23.4
24.3
44.0
50.1
50.6
52.2
55.8
23.8
21.3
20.4
23.2
23.7
9.0
13.9
7.7
6.4
6.7
23.6
54.0
54.0
22.3
29.1
4.1
1 355.3
1 383.4
1 395.1
412.8
407.0
230.5
232.8
239.4
250.8
255.7
34.7
31.5
30.8
35.3
35.4
114.0
116.5
120.8
124.4
125.5 |
1 9 55
1 9 56
1 9 57
1958....
1959
438.0
446.1
, 452.5
447.3
475.9
274.2
281.4
288.2
290.1
307.3
43.2
41.0
41.5
37.9
43.7
196 0
196 1
1962...
1963...
1964...
529.8
551.0
581.1
316.1
322.5
338.4
353.3
373.7
44.9
43.9
49.2
53.7
59.0
149.6
153.0
158.2
162.2
170.3
1 9 65
1 9 66
1 9 67
1 9 68
1 9 69
617.8
658.1
675.2
706.6
725.6
397.7
418.1
430.1
452.7
469.1
66.6
71.7
72.9
81.3
85.6
178.6
187.0
190.2
197.1
201.3
1970.
1971.
722.1
741.7
477.0
495.4
83.1
92.1
207.0 '186.8 104.0 | 99.9
211.1 192.2 108.6 1105.9
i
Change
in business
inventories
81.8
84.8
87.8
91.1
94.8
1950
195 1
1952
1953
1954
487.7
497.2
Residential
structures
>152.5
159.4
167.0
174.4
1182.2
!
. J . 2 90.1 66.3
1109.3 95.4 74.1
1101.2 ! 93.5 73.2
,105.2 I 98.8 , 75.6
• 110.5 1103.8 ! 80.1
77.6
76.8
22.8
20.2
20.8
24.7
6.0
5.8
5.8
2.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
720.4
723.2
726.8
718.0
474.1
476.9
480.2
476.5
83.8
84.7
84.9
78.9
204.4 1185.9 102.0 101.0
206.0 186.2 105.6 100.0
207.7 , 1 8 7 . 6 106.2 101.3
209.9 1 8 7 . 8 102.2 97.4
78.8
78.9
79.3
73.6
24.0
23.9
23.5
22.9
54.8
55.0
55.7
50.7
22.2
21.1
22.0
23.9
0.9
5.6
4.9
4.8
1971:1.
. 731.9
I I . — 737.9
I I I . — 742.5
I V . . . . 754.5
488.2
493.0
497.4
503.2
88.8
90.0
94.2
95.4
210.0
211.2
210.5
212.8 195.0
101.2
104.7
106.6
111.3
75.3
76.4
76.4
79.2
23.4
23.0
22.5
22.2
51.9
53.3
53.9
57.0
25.9
28.3
30.1
32.1
3.8
5.3
.7
.7
1972:1
511.0
519.5
98.6
100.3
214.7 197.7 116.6 116.3
219.2 200.0 121.9 118.6
82.2
84.4
23.0
22.7
59.2
61.6
34.2
34.2
.3
3.3
1970:1
Il_...
III—..
IV....
766.5
783.1
105.0
,110.0
107.3
112.0
See footnotes at end of table.
68
TABLE A-2.—Gross national product or expenditure in 1958 dollars, amount
1950-72—Continued
(Amounts in billions of 1958 dollars]
Net exports of goods and
services
Government purchases of
goods and services»
Percent change from
preceding period
Federal
State and
local
Addendum:
Gross
private
product
52.8
75.4
92.1
99.8
88.9
25.3
47.4
63.8
70.0
56.8
27.5
27.9
28.4
29.7
32.1
324.2
344.6
353.2
371.1
366.2
9.6
7.9
3.0
4.5
-1.4
10.2
6.3
2.5
5.0
-1.3
17.7
19.1
19.9
20.9
23.5
85.2
85.3
89.3
94.2
94.7
50.7
49.7
51.7
53.6
52.5
34.4
35.6
37.6
40.6
42.2
397.2
404.8
410.5
405.2
433.4
7.6
1.8
1.5
-1.1
6.4
8.5
1.9
1.4
-1.3
7.0
27.3
28.0
30.0
32.1
36.5
23.0
22.9
25.5
26.6
28.2
94.9
100.5
107.5
109.6
1U.2
51.4
54.6
60.0
59.5
58.1
43.5
45.9
47.5
50.1
53.2
444.0
452.3
482.9
503.2
532.0
2.5
1.9
6.6
4.0
5.4
2.4
1.9
6.7
4.2
5.7
6.2
4.2
3.6
1.0
.2
37.4
40.2
42.1
45.7
48.4
31.2
36.1
38.5
44.7
48.3
114.7
126.5
140.2
147.7
145.9
57.9
65.4
74.7
78.1
73.5
56.8
61.1
65.5
69.6
72.4
567.0
603.5
617.5
647.0
664.9
6.3
6.5
2.6
4.7
2.7
6.6
6.4
2.3
4.8
2.8
2.2
.1
52.2
52.6
50.0
52.5
139.0
137.6
64.7
60.8
74.3
76.8
661.3
681.0
-.5
2.7
-.5
3.0
Year or quarter
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
2.7
5.3
3.0
1.1
3.0
16.3
19.3
18.2
17.8
18.8
13.6
14.1
15.2
16.7
15.8
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
3.2
5.0
6.2
2.2
.3
20.9
24.2
26.2
23.1
23.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
4.3
5.1
4.5
5.6
8.3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
Total
Total
gross
national
product
Gross
private
product
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
51.9
52.3
52.4
52.1
50.0
50.4
49.5
50.1
142.4
138.6
137.5
137.3
69.0
64.8
62.9
62.1
73.5
73.8
74.6
75.1
659.5
662.3
666.1
657.4
-2.5
1.5
2.0
-4.8
-2.6
2.7
-.7
.1
-1.8
53.0
53.0
54.4
49.9
50.3
53.8
54.3
51.7
136.1
135.7
137.6
141.1
60.2
59.7
61.0
62.3
75.9
76.0
76.7
78.8
671.3
677.5
681.7
693.7
8.0
3.4
2.5
6.7
8.7
3.7
2.5
7.2
-3.3
-2.4
55.5
54.4
58.9
56.8
142.2
144.1
62.8
64.0
79.4
80.1
705.6
722.2
6.5
8.9
7.1
9.7
1.9
2.0
2.9
1.9
l
N e t of Government sales.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
69
1.7
2.3
-5.1
TABLE A-3.—Implicit price deflators and alternative price measures of gross national product and
gross private product, 1950-72
Gross nationalgrodudt^rice deflators,
Year or
quarter
Price
Index,
1967
weights
Implicit
price
deflator
Private
Total
Private
Total
Implicit
price
deflator
Percent change in gross national product deflators
from preceding period
Price
index,
1967
weights
Implicit
price
deflator
Price
index,
1967
weights
Chain
price
index
Implicit
price
deflator
Price
index,
1967
weights
Chain
price
index
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
80.16
85.64
87.45
88.33
89.63
81.41
87.35
88.99
89.65
90.77
1.3
6.8
2.1
1.0
1.5
1.0
7.3
1.9
.7
1.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
90.86
93.99
97.49
100.00
101.66
91.57
94.53
97.92
100.00
101.41
1.4
3.4
3.7
2.5
1.7
.9
3.2
3.6
2.1
1.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
103.29
104.62
105.78
107.17
108.85
102.76
103.73
104.73
105.80
107.05
1.6
1.3
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.3
.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
1965
1966
196 7
1968
1969
110.86
113.94
117.59
122.30
128.20
110.75
114.06
117.58
122.51
128.61
108.83
111.56
114.79
118.90
124.30
108.65
111.62
114.78
119.10
124.67
1.8
2.8
3.2
4.0
4.8
3.0
3.1
4.2
5.0
3.1
4.2
4.9
1.7
2.5
2.9
3.6
4.5
2.7
2.8
3.8
4.7
2.9
3.8
4.6
1970
1971
135.23
141.61
135.56
142.40
130.31
135.91
130.64
136.53
5.5
4.7
5.4
5.1
5.3
5.0
4.8
4.3
4.8
4.5
4.7
4.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970:1
II
III
IV . . .
132.97
134.38
135.71
137.85
133.25
134.92
136.15
137.99
128.31
129.49
130.71
132.73
128.59
130.05
131.11
132.87
6.5
4.3
4.0
6.5
6.0
5.1
3.7
5.5
5.8
5.1
3.5
5.6
5.3
3.7
3.8
6.3
4.7
4.6
3.3
5.5
4.6
4.6
3.2
5.6
1971:1
II
III...
IV....
139.84
141.34
142.35
142.88
140.35
141.98
143.22
144.11
134.28
135.69
136.63
136.98
134.67
136.18
137.36
137.94
5.9
4.4
2.9
1.5
7.0
4.7
3.5
2.5
6.8
4.6
3.4
2.1
4.8
4.3
2.8
1.0
5.5
4.6
3.5
1.7
5.5
4.4
3.4
1.4
1972:1
II
144.68
145.44
146.26
147.52
138.40
139.10
139.47
140.53
5.1
2.1
6.1
3.5
5.3
3.2
4.2
2.0
4.5
3.1
4.0
2.8
i Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from published indexes.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
70
TABLE A-4.—Gross product originating in nonfinancial corporations and dollar costs per unit of
output> 1950-72
Gross product
Current dollar costs per unit of 1958 dollar gross product (dollars)
nonfinancial
corporations (billions of dollars)
Year or quarter
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Total
costs I
Capital
consumption
allowances
Indirect
business
taxes'
CompensaNet
tion of
interest
employees
Profits
after
taxes
Profits plus
intax
ventory
liability valuation
adjustment
Current
dollars
1958
dollars
151.7
174.3
182.0
194.7
191.6
186.4
203.5
207.1
219.8
213.4
0.814
.857
.879
.886
.898
0.046
.049
.054
.059
.069
0.075
.075
.081
.083
.081
0.507
.541
.570
.584
.591
0.005
.005
.006
.006
.007
0.180
.186
.168
.154
.149
0.090
.103
.086
.084
.074
0.090
.083
.082
.070
.075
216.3
231.2
241.9
236.0
263.7
237.2
244.0
247.2
236.0
260.8
.912
.948
.979
1.000
1.011
.072
.076
.082
.091
.088
.081
.085
.090
.097
.094
.582
.619
.642
.659
.654
.007
.007
.009
.011
.010
.170
.160
.155
.142
.164
.084
.081
.076
.069
.080
.086
.079
.078
.073
.084
273.1
278.4
302.8
320.0
346.0
267.1
270.6
292.9
308.0
329.7
1.022
1.029
1.034
1.039
1.050
.091
.095
.100
.100
.100
.099
.103
.101
.102
.103
.670
.670
.665
.664
.664
.013
.014
.015
.015
.011
.151
.149
.154
.158
.168
.073
.073
.071
.074
.074
.078
.076
.082
.084
.094
377.6
413.0
430.8
469.9
504.3
357.8
385.0
390.2
415.0
433.9
1.055
1.073
1.104
1.132
1.162
.099
.100
.107
.109
.115
.100
.096
.100
.105
.109
.660
.678
.707
.727
.764
.017
.019
.023
.025
.029
.179
.180
.167
.166
.145
.077
.078
.073
.082
.078
.102
.102
.094
.084
.067
516.1
549.4
427.4
438.8
1.208
1.252
.124
.132
.118
.124
.812
.832
.035
.037
.119
.128
.063
.067
.056
.061
Total
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
the l i f t l $
1
eq
"al
t 0
^
510.9
516.4
521.9
515.3
429.6
429.6
431.2
419.2
1.189
1.202
1.210
1.229
0.122
.123
.124
.129
0.114
.116
.118
.122
0.800
.804
.812
.831
0.033
.035
.036
.037
0.120
.124
.121
.110
0.065
.064
.065
.058
0.055
.059
.056
.052
536.2
546.9
552.2
562.6
432.0
436.8
438.9
447.3
1.241
1.252
1.258
1.258
.128
.131
.134
.135
.123
.122
.124
.126
.826
.831
.834
.836
.037
.037
.037
.037
.128
.131
.128
.124
.070
.071
.067
.061
.058
.061
.061
.063
582.4
459.6
1.267
.135
.123
.842
.037
.130
.068
.063
deflator , o r Bross product of nonfinancial
corporations, with the decimal point shifted two places to
Also includes business transfer payments less subsidies.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
71
TABLE A-5.—Personal consumption expenditures,
1950-72
{Billions of dollarsl
Services
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
&
to
Year
or
quarter
•eg
-a =
e.9"5
3-a
"E75
62.4
67.9
73.4
79.9
85.4
21.3
23.9
26.5
29.3
31.7
9.5
10.4
11.1
12.0
12.6
9.0
9.8
10.6
11.0
11.6
24.0 91.4
25.4 98.5
2 7 . 1 105.0
28.2 112.0
30.1 120.3
33.7
36.0
38.5
41.1
43.7
14.0
15.2
16.2
17.3
18.5
27.3
27.9
29.6
30.6
33.5
12.3
12.4
12.9
13.5
14.0
31.2
32.7
34.4
36.3
38.2
128.7
135.1
143.0
152.4
163.3
46.3
48.7
52.0
55.4
59.3
20.0
20.8
22.0
23.1
24.3
98.8
105.8
108.5
115.3
120.6
35.9
40.3
42.3
46.3
50.2
15.3
16.6
17.6
19.0
20.9
41.1
44.4
46.6
50.2
54.2
175.5
188.6
204.0
221.3
242.7
63.5
67.5
71.8
77.3
84.1
25.6
27.1
29.1
31.2
33.8
14.2 264.4 132.1
14.8 |278.1 136.4
52.0
56.9
23.5
58.1 261.8
61.3 283.3
90.9
99.2
36.3
39.5
88.7
90.1
91.4
93.4
35.3
35.9
36.9
37.2
5.4
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
30.5
29.6
29.3
33.2
32.8
13.1
11.6
11.1
14.2
13.6
14.1
14.4
14.3
14.9
15. C
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.2
98.1
108.8
114.0
116.8
118.3
53.9
60.4
63.4
64.4
65.4
19.6
21.2
21.9
22.1
22.1
6.1
6.8
7.7
8.2
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2
38.9
40.8
37.9
44.3
18.4
16.4
18.3
15.4
19.5
16.6
17.5
17.3
17.1
18.9
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.9
123.3
129.3
135.6
140.2
146.6
67.2
69.9
73.6
76.4
78.6
23.1
24.1
24.3
24.7
26.4
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
45.3
44.2
49.5
53.9
59.2
20.1
18.4
22.0
24.3
25.8
18.9
19.3
20.5
22.2
25.0
6.3
6.5
6.9
7.5
8.5
151.3
155.9
162.6
168.6
178.7
80.5
82.9
85.7
88.2
92.9
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
432.8
466.3
492.1
536.2
579.5
66.3
70.8
73.1
84.0
90.8
30.3
30.3
30.5
37.5
40.2
26.9
29.9
31.4
34.3
37.1
9.1
10.5
11.2
12.3
13.5
191.1
206.9
215.0
230.8
245.9
1970..
1971..
616.8 . 90.5
664.9 103.5
37.3
46.7
39.0
42.0
22.2
19.2
21.1
21.7
22.7
22.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970:1...
II..
III.
IV..
604.1 90.2 37.8
613.4 91.6 39.2
623.0 ' 92.6 39.4
626.5 ; 87.5 33.0
38.7 ! 13.8 257.8 128.0
38.8 I 13.6 262.4 131.2
38.8 : 14.5 >266.3 133.9
39.6 14.9'271.3 135.2
51.1 21.8
51.8 ! 22.0
51.7 22.3
53.6 22.8
56.9
57.4
58.4
59.7
256.1
.259.4
264.1
267.7
41.0
41.4
41.9
43.5
135.1
>135.9
136.6
137.9
55.1
56.7
57.4
58.5
23.0
23.0
23.5
24.3
60.1
61.6
60.9
62.8
274.8 95.8 38.0
281.3 98.1 ' 39.1
286.1 100.3 40.0
1290.9 102.5 40.7
14.7 288.3 140.3
15.7 |296.3 143.3
59.4
61.7
24.6
24.9
64.0 296.7 104.2
66.5 302.6 106.0
1971: 1 . . . 648.0 1 99.8
I I . . 6 6 0 . 4 101.9
III..,670.7 106.1
I V . . 680.5 ; 106.1
44.9
45.4
48.8
47.9
1972: l...;696.1 ' l l l . O
II p .|712.5 .113.6
49.9 46.5
51.3 j 46.6
13.9
15.0
15.5
14.7
273.4
1277.2
1278.5
283.4
1
Includes standard clothing issued to military personnel.
' Includes imputed rental value of owner-occupied dwellings.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
72
41.2
42.6
TABLE A-6.—Gross private domestic investment, 1950-72
[Billions of dollars]
Fixed investment
Total
gross
private
domestic
investment
Year or
quarter
Nonresidential
Producers'
durable
equipment
Structures
Total
Total
Total
1 9 50
1 9 51
1 9 52
1 9 53
1 9 54
59.3
51.9
52.6
51.7
1 9 55
1 9 56
1 9 57
1 9 58
1 9 59
67.4
70.0
67.9
60.9
75.3
54.1
1 9 60
1 9 61
1 9 62
1 9 63
1 9 64
74.8
:
1965...
1 9 66
71.7
83.0
87.1
47.3
49.0
48.8
52.1
53.3
27.9
31.8
31.6
34.2
33.6
61.4
65.3
38.1
66.5
62.4
70.5
71.3
69.7
77.0
81.3
43.7
46.4
41.6
45.1
48.4
47.0
51.7
54.3
9.2
11.2
11.4
12.7
13.1
14.3
17.2
18.0
16.6
16.7
18.1
18.4
19.2
19.5
94.0
88.2
61.1
21.2
108.1
98.5
71.3
Residential structures
Nonfarm
Total
0.8
18.7
20.7
15.7
17.7
17.6
19.4
17.2
17.2
18.6
21.5
18.6
18.0
18.0
16.4
16.4
17.2
.8
.8
.8
19.7
19.0
.7
13.6
16.5
17.2
15.8
23.3
22.7
20.9
19.5
15.9
23.8
26.5
28.4
25.0
28.4
17.4
30.3
20.2
20.6
17.7
18.5
18.8
28.6
32.5
34.8
20.5
39.9
21.2
24.2
25.9
22.0
21.6
20.2
20.8
25.4
25.5
24.8
27.7
25.8
29.4
31.2
36.3
22.8
22.2
22.0
25.3
27.0
27.1
24.8
26.4
27.2
25.0
25.1
32.6
26.7
24.5
24.5
29.5
32.0
31.2
42.6
30.7
42.0
121.4
106.6
81.6
108.4
118.9
83.3
28.0
1 9 68
116.6
126.0
88.8
30.3
29.6
45.8
53.1
55.3
58.5
1 9 69
139.0
131.1
98.5
34.2
33.5
64.3
41.6
48.4
50.0
53.6
59.2
1 9 70
1971
137.1
152.0
132.2
100.9
105.8
36.0
38.4
35.2
37.5
64.9
67.4
59.2
60.9
148.3
Farm
8.5
10.4
10.5
11.9
12.3
24.9
27.8
27.3
::
Nonfarm
farm
25.5
28.5
1967
Total
22.6
30.1
20.1
.6
.7
.7
.6
26.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970:1...
II..
III.
IV_.
1971:1...
II..
III.
IV.
1972:1..
II»
132.9
137.7
139.9
100.2
101.7
103.4
98.5
35.5
36.1
36.2
34.7
137.8
131.4
131.4
133.7
132.1
36.3
35.5
143.9
153.0
152.2
158.8
139.0
146.4
150.9
157.2
101.9
105.0
106.3
109.8
37.6
38.3
38.7
38.8
36.8
37.5
168.1
167.7
172.6
116.1
120.1
41.3
176.8
41.5
59.2
59.8
61.2
56.6
37.9
38.0
64.3
66.7
67.6
71.0
58.3
60.4
60.8
64.2
40.5
40.6
74.8
67.7
51.6
78.7
70.9
52.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
31.2
29.7
64.8
65.6
67.2
62.1
35.3
35.4
73
30.3
33.6
37.0
41.4
44.5
47.3
30.6
29.4
29.9
33.0
0.5
.3
.4
.6
1.5
6.3
6.2
5.7
1.4
6.2
6.1
5.6
36.6
40.9
43.9
46.7
.5
.5
.7
.6
4.9
6.6
1.3
1.7
3.9
5.1
- . 2
.8
51.0
51.8
.6
.6
.4
4.3
.1
3.6
TABLE A-7.—National income by type of income, 1950-72
(Billions of dollars]
Compensation of
employees
Year or
quarter
Total
national
income i
Corporate profits
and inventory
valuation
adjustment
Business and professional income
Total
InSupcome Invenpletory
of
Wages ments
unin- valuto
and
Total corpo- ation
sala- wages
rated adjustand
ries
salaenter- ment
ries*
prises
Income
of
farm
proprietors'
Rental
income
of
Corpo- Inventory
perrate
valusons Total profits
ation
before
taxes* adjustment
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
241.1
278.0
291.4
304.7
303.1
154.6
180.7
195.3
209.1
208.0
146.8
171.1
185.1
198.3
196.5
7.8
9.6
10.2
10.9
11.5
24.0
26.1
27.1
27.5
27.6
25.1
26.5
26.9
27.6
27.6
-1.1
-.3
.2
-.2
.0
13.5
15.8
15.0
13.0
12.4
9.4
10.3
11.5
12.7
13.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
331.0
350.8
366.1
367.8
400.0
224.5
243.1
256.0
257.8
279.1
211.3
227.8
238.7
239.9
258.2
13.2
15.2
17.3
17.9
20.9
30.3
31.3
32.8
33.2
35.1
30.5
31.8
33.1
33.2
35.3
-.2
-.5
-.3
-.1
-.1
11.4
11.4
11.3
13.4
11.4
13.9
14.3
14.8
15.4
15.6
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
414.5
427.3
457.7
481.9
518.1
294.2
302.6
323.6
341.0
365.7
270.8
278.1
296.1
311.1
333.7
23.4
24.6
27.5
29.9
32.0
34.2
35.6
37.1
37.9
40.2
34.3
35.6
37.1
37.9
40.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
-.1
12.0
12.8
13.0
13.1
12.1
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
564.3
620.6
653.6
711.1
766.0
393.8
435.5
467.2
514.6
566.0
358.9
394.5
423.1
464.9
509.7
35.0
41.0
44.2
49.7
56.3
42.4
45.2
47.3
49.5
50.5
42.8
45.6
47.6
50.3
51.2
-.4
-.4
-.3
-.7
-.8
1970
1971
798.6
855.7
603.8
644.1
541.9
573.5
61.9
70.7
49.9
52.6
50.7
53.4
-.7
-.8
—5 0
—1.2
37.7
42.7
39.9
39.6
38.0
42.6
43.9
38.9
40.6
38.3
—1.0
—.3
46.9
46.1
45.6
41.1
51.7
48.6
48.8
47.2
41.4
52.1
—1 7
—2.7
—1.5
—. 3
-.5
15.8
16.0
16.7
17.1
18.0
49.9
50.3
55.7
58.9
66.3
49.7
50.3
55.4
59.4
66.8
14.8
16.1
14.8
14.7
16.7
19.0
20.0
21.1
21.2
22.6
76.1
82.4
78.7
84.3
79.8
77.8
84.2
79.8
87.6
84.9
—1 7
—1.8
—1.1
—3.3
-5.1
16.9
17.3
23.3
24.5
69.9
78.6
74.3
83.3
—4 4
—4.7
11
i
i
_5
-.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970: l__
II..
III.
IV..
787.5
796.7
806.3
804.1
594.3
600.7
609.0
611.2
534.9
539.5
546.1
547.2
61.2 50.0
62.8 50.1
63.9
49.9
18.0
17.1
16.5
15.9
23.0
23.2
23.4
23.8
69.3
71.5
72.0
66.9
75.8
75.2
76.6
69.6
-6.4
-3.7
-4.6
-2.8
834.5
I I . . 851.4
I I I . . 860.8
I V . . 876.2
628.6
639.6
648.0
660.4
560.4
569.6
576.5
587.3
68.2
70.0
71.5
73.0
51.3
52.4
53.1
53.8
16.8
16.9
17.6
18.1
23.9
24.4
24.8
25.0
76.6
80.1
78.3
79.4
81.3
84.5
84.1
83.2
-4.7
-4.4
-5.8
-3.9
1972: I . . . 903.1
II'.
682.7
697.5
606.6
619.7
76.1
77.8
54.3
54.7
19.1
18.7
25.2
24.4
81.8
88.2
-6.5
-5.5
1971:
- ~ . N i t i 0 ! l a l i n c ?'? e l s ? e t o t a l
and indfrect buVi^ess taxe?" 3
59.5
49.7
Production. It differs from gross national product mainly in that it
allowances for business and institutional consumption of durable capital goods,
lncome earned in
s« i^f-Tfi
J E ? 2 ? - r i £p ia t l o nf s t^h 'ei nm ,s, lut arr a n c e and to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for
iiirf.'
y° .
y reserve; and a few other minor items.
' Includes change in inventories.
* See Table A-8 for corporate tax liability and profits after taxes.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
74
TABLE A-8.—Profits before and after taxes, all private corporations, 1950-72
I Billions of dollars]
Corporate profits (before taxes) and
inventory valuation adjustment
Con
irporate profits
after taxes
Manufacturing
All
dustries
TransportaAll
tion,
comDur- Nonother
muniable durinable
Total goods goods cation. dusand
intries
inpublic
dus- dustries tries
utilities
Corporate
profits
before
taxes
Corporate
tax
liability i
17.8
22.3
19.4
20.3
17.7
20.6
Un- . vw.1dis- I sumpDivitribTotal
dends uted
profits
37.7 ! 20.9
42.7 • 24.6
39.9 i 21.6
39.6 22.0
38.0 19.9
8.9
12.0
13.2 11.4
11.7 9.9
11.9 10.1
10.5 9.4
4.0
4.6
4.9
5.0
4.7
12.7
13.5
13.3
13.4
42.6
43.9
38.9
40.6
38.3
46.9 26.0
46.1 ! 24.7
45.6 j 24.0
41.1 ! 19.3
51.7 I 26.3
14.3 11.8
12.8 11.9
13.3 10.7
9.3 10.0
13.6 12.7
5.6
5.9
5.8
5.9
7.0
15.2
15.6
15.8
15.9
18.4
48.6
48.8
47.2
J
41.4
52.1
21.6
21.7
21.2
ia9'.n0
1
23.7
27.0 10.5 16.5
27.2 11.3 15.9
26.0 11.7 14.2
22.3 11.6 10.8 ,
28.5 12.6 15.9 ;
17.9 49.7
19.1 i 50.3
20.5 . 55.4
59.4
20.6
23.5 66.8
23.0
23.1
24.2
26.3
28.3
26.7
27.2
31.2
33.1
38.4
49.9 ! 24.4 12.0
50.3 '23.3 11.4
55.7:26.6 14.1
58.9 28.8 1 15.8
66.3 32.7 17.8
76.1 ; 39.3
82.4 42.6
78.7 I 38.7
84.3 41.7
79.8 36.6
22.8
12.4
11.9
12.5
13.0
14.9
7.5
7.9
8.5
9.5
10.1
12.6
24.9
21.6
19.6
20.4
8.8
8.6
8.6
11.0
13.4
13.8
15.2
16.5
17.8
13.2
13.5
16.0
16.6
20.6
26.7
29.1
25.3
24.2
20.5
74.3 34.1 40.2 24.8 15.4
83.3 37.3 45.9 25.4 20.5
7.6 34.6
8.2 39.6
69.9 27.7 1 1 . 0 16.7
78.6 30.9 14.1 16.8
13.0
8.9 11.5
9.3 11.3
11.1 25.6 77.8 31.3 46.5 19.8
11.9 27.9 84.2 34.3 49.9 20.8
10.8 29.1 79.8 33.2 46.6 21.4
10.6 32.0 87.6 39.9 47.8 23.6
10.1 33.1 84.9 40.1 44.8 24.3
16.6
24.0 18.6
20.7 18.0
22.4 ! 19.3
18.8 17.7
16.0
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
69.3
71.5
72.0
66.9
76.6
80.1
78.3
79.4
29.4 !113.1 1 16.4
29.9 : 13.0 . 17.0
! 28.9 11.7 1 17.2
22.6 6.2 16.4
30.9
31.2
30.1
31.2
14.3
14.4
13.3
14.3
16.6
16.8
16.9
16.9
8.0
7.4
7.8
7.2
31.9 i 75.8 34.3 41.4
34.1 1 75.2 34.6 40.6
35.3 : 7&6 35.4 41.2
37.0 69.6 32.2 37.4
7.8
8.8
8.5
7.6
37.8
40.2
39.6
40.5
! 81.3
! 84.5
i 84.1
; 83.2
38.0
38.6
37.5
35.3
7.8 38.5; 88.2
81.8 35.4 17.7 17.7
I
iii
federal and State corporate income and excess profits taxes.
• includes depreciation and accidental damages,
corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances.
1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
75
43.2
45.8
46.6
48.0
24.8
24.7
24.9
24.7
16.6
25.5
25.4
25.5
25.2
17.7
20.4
15.8
16.3
12.7
21.0
22.7
49.5 26.0 23.5
26.2
TABLE A-9.—Disposition of personal income, 1950-72
Percent of disposable
personal income
Less: Personal outlays
Personal
income
Less:
Personal
tax
and
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
personal
Total
PerPersonal Interest sonal
transfer
conpaid by
paysumpconments
tion
sumers to
forexpendeigners
itures
Equals:
Personal outlays
sonal
saving
Total
Consumption
expenditures
Percent
Billions of dollars
93.7
92.4
92.4
92.8
93.6
92.3
91.0
90.9
91.1
91.9
6.3
7.6
7.6
7.2
6.4
|
j
>
!
94.3
93.0
93.3
93.0
94.4
92.4
91.0
91.2
91.0
92.3
5.7
7.0
6.7
7.0
5.6
.5
.5
.5
.6
.6
17.0 | |
21.2 I
21.6 I
19.9
26.2
95.1
94.2
94.4
95.1
94.0
92.9
92.0
92.2
92.7
91.6
4.9
5.8
5.6
4.9
6.0
11.3
12.4
13.2
14.3
15.8
.7
.6
.7
.8
.9
28.4
32.5
40.4
39.8
38.2
94.0
93.6
92.6
93.3
94.0
91.5
91.1
90.1
90.7
91.3
6.0
6.4
7.4
6.7
6.0
16.9
17.6
1.0
1.0
54.9
60.9
92.1
91.8
89.5
89.3
8.0
8.2
227.6
255.6
272.5
288.2
290.1
20.7
29.0
34.1
35.6
32.7
206.9
226.6
238.3
252.6
257.4
193.9
209.3
220.2
234.3
241.0
191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.8
4.0
0.5
.4
.4
.5
.5
13.1
17.3
18.1
18.3
16.4
310.9
333.0
351.1
361.2
383.5
35.5
39.8
42.6
42.3
46.2
275.3
293.2
3C8.5
318.8
337.3
259.5
272.6
287.8
296.6
318.3
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2
4.7
5.4
5.8
5.9
6.5
.5
.6
.6
.6
.6
15.8
20.6
20.7
22.3
19.1
401.0
416.8
442.6
465.5
497.5
50.9
52.4
57.4
60.9
59.4
350.0
364.4
385.3
404.6
438.1
333.0
343.3
363.7
384.7
411.9
325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
7.3
7.6
8.1
9.1
10.1
538.9
587.2
629.3
688.9
750.9
65.7
75.4
83.0
97.9
116.5
473.2
511.9
546.3
591.0
634.4
444.8
479.3
506.0
551.2
596.2
432.8
466.3
492.1
536.2
579.5
806.3
861.4
116.7
117.0
689.5
744.4
634.7
683.4
616.8
664.9
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
Seasonally adjusted
785.7
806.1
813.4
819.8
117.8
119.0
114.3
115.8
667.9
687.2
699.1
704.0
621.6
631.2
641.1
644.8
604.1
613.4
623.0
626.5
16.5
16.8
17.1
17.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
46.3
55.9
58.0
59.2
93.1
91.9
91.7
91.6
90.4
89.3
89.1
89.0
6.9
8.1
.8.3
8.4
838.0
858.1
867.9
881.5
112.3
115.2
117.5
123.0
725.7
742.9
750.4
758.5
666.4
678.8
689.4
699.2
648.0
660.4
670.7
680.5
17.4
17.5
17.6
17.7
.9
.9
1.1
1.1
59.3
64.1
61.0
59.3
91.8
91.4
91.9
92.2
89.3
88.9
89.4
89.7
8.2
8.6
8.1
7.8
907.0
922.5
136.5
139.6
770.5
782.9
714.9
731.5
696.1
712.5
17.8
18.0
1.0
1.0
55.7
51.5 j
92.8
93.4
90.3
91.0
7.2
6.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
76
TABLE A-10.—Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption
expenditures, in current and 1958 dollars, 1950-72
Disposable personal income
Total (billions
of dollars)
Current
dollars
1958
dollars
Personal consumption expenditures
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
Total (billions
of dollars)
1958
dollars
Current
dollars
1958
dollars
Population
(thousands) i
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
1958
dollars
206.9
226.6
238.3
252.6
257.4
249.6
255.7
263.3
275.4
278.3
1,364
1,469
1,518
1.583
1,585
1,646
1,657
1,678
1,726
1,714
191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
230.5
232.8
239.4
250.8
255.7
1,259
1,337
1,381
1,441
1,456
1,520
1,509
1,525
1,572
1,575
151,684
154,287
156,954
159,565
162,391
275.3
293.2
308.5
318.8
337.3
296.7
309.3
315.8
318.8
333.0
1,666
1,743
1,801
1,831
1,905
1,795
1,839
1,844
1,831
1,881
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2
274.2
281.4
288.2
290.1
307.3
1,539
1,585
1.643
1,666
1.758
1,659
1,673
1,683
1,666
1,735
165,275
168,221
171,274
174,141
177,073
350.0
364.4
385.3
404.6
438.1
340.2
350.7
367.3
381.3
407.9
1,937
1,984
2.065
2.138
2,283
1,883
1,909
1,969
2.015
2,126
325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
316.1
322.5
338.4
353.3
373.7
1,800
1,825
1,903
1,381
2,091
1,749
180,671
1,756
183,691
1,814 1 186,538
1.867
189,242
1,948
191,889
473.2
511.9
546.3
591.0
634.4 |!
435.0
458.9
477.5
499.0
513.6
2,436 1i
2.604 11
2,749
2,945
3,130
2,239
2,335
2,403
2.486
2,534
432.8
466.3
492.1
536.2
579.5
397.7
418.1
430.1
452.7
469.1
2,228
2,372
2,476
2,671
2,859
2,047
2,127
2,164
2.256
2,315
194,303
196,560
198,712
200,706
202,677
689.5 |
744.4 |
533.2
554.7
3,366
3,595
2,603
2,679
616.8
664.9
477.0
495.4
3,010
3,211
2.328
2,393
204,879
207,049
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
667.9
687.2
699.1
704.0
524.2
534.2
538.9
535.4
3,273
3.359
3,407
3,421
2.569
2.611
2.626
2,602
604.1
613.4
623.0
626.5
474.1
476.9
480.2
476.5
2,960
2,998
3,036
3,044
2,323
2,331
2,340
2,315
204,082
204,600
205.186
205,795
725.7
742.9
750.4
758.5
546.6
554.6
556.5
560.9
3,517
3,592
3,620
3,649
2,650
2.682
2,684
2,698
648.0
660.4
670.7
680.5
488.2
493.0
497.4
503.2
3,141
3,193
3,235
3,274
2,366
2.384
2,399
2,421
206,310
206,806
207,312
207,856
770.5
782.9
565.7
570.9
3.700
3,753
2,716
2,736
696.1
712.5
511.0
519.5
3,343
3,415
2,454
2,490
208,255
208,628
. 1 Population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas; includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1960. Annual
data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
77
TABLE A-LL.—Sources of personal income9 1950-72
[Billions of dollars]
Wage and salary disbursements »
Year or quarter
Total
personal
income
Commodityproducing
industries
Total
Total
Manufacturing
Distributive Service
indus- industries
tries
Government
Other
labor
income *
Business
and
professional
6.3
24.0
26.1
27.1
27.5
27.6
13.5
15.8
15.0
13.0
12.4
7.3
8.4
9.5
9.9
11.3
30.3
31.3
32.8
33.2
35.1
11.4
11.4
11.3
13.4
11.4
48.7
52.2
56.0
59.5
64.3
12.0
12.7
13.9
14.9
16.6
34.2
35.6
37.1
37.9
40.2
12.0
12.8
13.0
13.1
12.1
58.3
63.7
70.5
78.5
88.1
69.3
77.7
85.8
95.7
104.1
18.7
20.7
22.3
25.4
28.4
42.4
45.2
47.3
49.5
50.5
14.8
16.1
14.8
14.7
16.7
96.7
105.0
115.1
123.5
32.1
36.5
49.9
52.6
16.9
17.3
195 0
195 1
195 2
195 3
1954
227.6
255.6
272.5
288.2
290.1
146.7
171.0
185.1
198.3
196.5
64.6
76.1
81.8
89.4
85.4
50.3
59.4
64.2
71.2
67.6
39.9
44.3
46.9
49.8
50.2
19.9
21.7
23.3
25.1
26.4
22.4
28.9
33.1
34.1
34.6
3.8
4.8
5.3
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
310.9
333.0
351.1
361.2
383.5
211.3
227.8
238.7
239.9
258.2
92.8
100.2;
103.8
99.7
109.1
73.9
79.5
82.5
78.7
86.9
53.4
57.7
60.5
60.8
64.8
28.9
31.6
33.9
35.9
38.7
36.2
38.3
40.4
43.5
45.6
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
401.0
416.8
442.6
465.5
497.5
270.8
278.1
296.1
311.1
333.7
112.5
112.8
120.8
125.7
134.1
89.7
89.8
96.7
100.6
107.2
68.1
69.1
72.5
76.0
81.2
41.5
44.0
46.8
49.9
54.1
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
538.9
587.2
629.3
688.9
750.9
358.9
394.5
423.1
464.9
509.7
144.5
159.3
166.5
181.5
197.5
115.6
128.1
134.2
145.9
157.6
86.9
93.8 i
100.3 "
109.2
120.0
1970..
1971..
806.3
861.4
541.9
572.9
201.0
206.1
158.3
160.3
129.2
138.2
6.0
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970: I
iv
1971:1
II
II I
IV
1972: I
II *>
785.7
806.1
813.4
819.8
532.4
541.6
546.5
547.2
201.8
201.3
202.2
198.6
159.6
159.2
159.6
154.9
126.3
127.9
130.6
131.8
94.4 I
95.9 »
97.2 i
99.3
109.9
116.5
116.5
117.6
30.7
31.5
32.6
33.7
49.7
50.0
50.1
49.9
838.0
858.1
867.9
881.5
560.4
569.5
575.9
585.9
202.9
205.7
206.0
2C9.9
158.5
160.2
160.0
162.7
134.8
137.2
139.1
141.7
101.6 !
103.9
106.3
108.4
121.1
122.7
124.6
125.9
34.8
36.1
37.2
38.0
51.3
52.4
53.1
53.8
907.0
922.5
608.0
620.2
217.5
222.4
168.8
173.8
147.2
15C.0
111.9
114.7
131.4
133.1
38.8
39.8
54.3
54.7
See footnotes at end of table.
78
Farm a
TABLE A—11.—Sources of personal income, 1950-72—Continued
(Billions of dollars]
Transfer payments
Year or
quarter
Rental !
j
income Divi* : Personal
of per- : dends, interest
income ,
sons I
!
I
1950....
1951....
1952...,
1953....
1954....
9.4
10.3 i
11.5
12.7 :
13.6 !
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
13.9
14.3
14.8
15.4
15.6
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
15.8
16.0
io.u
16.7
1 M'
18.0
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969.
1970.
1971.
!
8 . 8 ;!
8.6
Old age,
survivors, I
Tota,
disability, (
and health
insurance
benefits
i"
State
unemployment insurance
benefits
Veterans
benefits
15.1
12.5
13.0
14.0
16.0
I.9
2.2
3.0
3.6
1.0
1.0
2.0
4.9
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.9
! 10.5 :
; 11.3 |
• 11.7 .
11.6 !
I 12.6
14.2 i 1 7 . 3
15.7 18.5
17.6 21.4
18.9 25.7
20.7 i 26.6
4.9
5.7
7.3
8.5
10.2
1.4
1.4
1.8
3.9
2.5
.: 13.4 •
13.8 .
« 15.2
; 16.5
iu.| 17.8 |
23.4 ; 28.5
25.0 I 32.4
27.7 33.3 ,
31.4 35.3
34.9 36.7
II.1
12.6
14.3
15.2
16.0
19.0 19.8
20.0 20.8
« . . , 21.4
21.1
21.2 ' 23.6
22.6 | 24.3
38.7 ' 39.9
43.6 • 44.1
48.0 51.8
"
52.9 59.6
59.3 65.8
18.1
20.8
25.7
30.3
33.0
23.3 ! 24.8 i
24.5 | 25.4 :
65.8
69.6
79.5
93.6
38.5
44.5
8.6 j
8.9 I
9.2
9.9
10.6
11.8
13.1
1.0
1.4
Less:
Personal
contributions
social
Other forinsurance
Nonagricultural
personal
income »
7.9
5.9
2.9 !
3.4 j
6.3
6.5
in
4.6 j-,
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
6.8
5.2
5.8
6.7
6.9
7.9
2.8
4.0
2.9
2.8
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.3
10.0
10.9
11.2
12.2
12.9
2.2
1.8
5.6
5.7
6.6
7.3
8.3
14.0 '
15.7
17.5
20.0
22.4
.8
2.6
2.1
2.1
2.1
3.9
5.7
6.0
7.2
7.9
8.7
9.4
9.7 I 27.4
11.3 32.2
9.3
9.6
10.3 .
11.8 •:
12.5 i>
r.
13.4 !
17.7
20.5 •
22.8 j
26.3
28.0
31.2
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
23.0 ! 24.8 .
23.2 24.7 .
23.4 24.9
23.8 ' 24.7 ;
i
23.9 ! 25.5 |
24.4 25.4
24.8 . 25.5
25.0 : 2 5 2 !
63.5 i 7 I . i l
64.9 ! 80.9 i
66.8 80.9
68.0 85.0 •
1
68.6 • 87.3
69.1 : 95.2
70.2 ' 95.0
70.6 . 96.8 |
25.2 •: 26.0 ;
24.4
71.0 99.2 j
72.7 100.8 1
1
262
; -!
1
34.2
41.4 |
39.0 ;
39.4 11
2.7
3.6
4.2
5.1
9.1 ii
9.4
9.8
10.5! !
25.2 |
26.5 I
28.0 1
29.9
27.4
27.8
28.3
28.4
•
I1
-j
!|
40.4
46.7
45.0
45.7
5.0
5.7
5.9
6.2
11.0 1 '
11.2 !|
11.3:!
11.6
30.9
31.6
32.8
33.3
30.5 j|
31.0
31.3 ,
31.9 II
46.8
48.2
5.4
5.6
11.9 II 35.1
12.3 [3,7
34.6 j
35.1 !
A . V ^ e total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation^
a l tX e x d u d e s
»t excludes employer
employer Mntrrbutionrfor
contributions for social
social insurance
insurance iand the excess of wage accruals over wage tfiscurse
men!"t ht hat
a Br i ciS.^ ® ^ " ^ H ' "co itJ? 'i s°p er so n a I income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages,
vioiimni net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations,
ource: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
79
TABLE A-12.—Number and money income (IN 1971 dollars) ojfamilies and unrelated individuals,
by race oj had, 1950-71
With incomes
under $3,000
Total
num- Median
ber
(mil- income Number Perlions)
(mil- cent
lions)
$5,594
5,783
5,939
6.433
6.288
6,693
7,122
7.138
7.126
7,524
196 0
196 1
196 2
196 3
196 4
196 5
1966
19662
1967«
1968 *
1969>
39.9
40.6
40.8
41.2
42.0
42.9
43.5
43.7
44.2
45.1
45.5
46.3
47.0
47.4
47.8
48.3
48.9
49.1
49.8
50.5
51.2
1970'
1971 >
51.9
53.3
10.289
10.285
1950
195 1
1952
1953
1954
195 5
1956
195 7
1958
1959
7.688
7,765
7,975
8,267
8,579
8,932
9,281
9,360
9.683
10.049
10,423
Negro and other races
White
Total
8.6
8.0
7.7
7.5
8.3
7.6
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.6
6.8
6.4
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.1
5.1
4.7
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.4
21.6
19.7
18.9
18.3
19.8
17.6
15.7
15.8
15.7
14.9
14.6
14.7
13.6
12.9
11.9
11.3
10.5
10.3
9.5
8.3
With incomes
under $3,000 Total
Total
num- Median
num- Median
ber
ber income
(mil- income Num(milber
Perlions)
lions)
(mil- cent
lions)
8.1
38.2
39.0
39.5
39.7
40.2
40.9
41.1
41.9
42.4
42.7
43.1
43.5
44.0
44.1
44.8
45.4
46.0
8.3
8.3
46.5
47.6
$5,811
6,017
6,285
6,677
6.555
6,976
7.452
7.428
7,425
7,838
6.6
6.0
5.3
5.3
9,726
10.041
10.404
10.822
5.4
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
10.674
10.672
3.3
3.3
7,982
8.109
8,353
8,664
8,956
9.311
9,638
19.3
17.0
16.4
16.2
17.4
15.3
13.3
13.4
13.4
12.5
12.5
12.5
11.7
8.2
7.0
6.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.2
$3,142
3.171
3,569
3,753
3.637
3,860
3.928
3.978
3.805
4.045
4,416
4,321
4,456
4,596
5.012
5.160
5,766
5,824
6.234
6,508
6.847
7.0
6.9
5.4
5.7
6.806
6,714
10.8
10.1
9.6
9.0
8.7
With incomes
under $1,500
With incomes
under $1,500
Number
(millions)
Percent
Number
(millions)
Percent
9.4
9.1
9.7
9.5
9.7
9.9
9.8
10.4
10.9
10.9
$1,825
1,883
2,166
2,125
1,844
1.992
2.137
2,193
2,123
2,188
4.2
4.1
3.8
4.0
4.4
4.1
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.1
44.5
45.0
39.5
41.7
45.0
41.8
40.3
38.6
38.8
37.9
8.2
11.1
2,365
2.378
2,349
2.382
2,597
2,771
2,833
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.3
36.1
35.1
32.8
32.5
30.9
28.1
26.9
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.7
10.4
10.5
3.013
3,432
3.409
2.9 25.4
2.6 i 21.6
2.6 i 21.1
2.0
3.425
3,465
2.7
2.7
2.1
11.2
11.0
11.2
12.1
12.1
12.4
8.5
8.5
8.9
9.2
9.3
10.8
12.3
13.1
13.8
14.5
2,900
3,241
3,250
3.5 26.7
3.2 22.9
3.3 j 22.8
10.7
11.3
12.0
12.5
15.4
16.3
3,277
3,316
3.3 | 2 1 . 7
3.3 j 20.5
13.4
14.2
not
to persons 14 years old
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
80
$1,911
1.966
2,335
2.249
1.983
2.139
2.204
2.326
2,263
2.327
2.545
2.557
2,514
2.497
2.738
2,887
2,945
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
43.1
43.9
38.1
41.0
42.9
39.9
39.1
36.5
37.1
35.8
33.8
33.0
30.7
30.5
29.2
26.7
25.5
20.1
18.9
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
$1,374
1.448
1,605
1,759
1.317
1,415
1,620
1,482
1,513
1,497
1.479
1.567
1.677
1.718
1,886
2,101
2,139
1.8
1.8
2.233
2.362
2,410
1.9
2.354
2,325
over (other than inmates of institutions) who are
EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
TABLE A-13.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force,
1950-72
Civilian labor force
Noninstftutional
population
Total
labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)
Armed
Forces
Employment
Total
Total
Agricultural
agricultural
Unemployment
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
106,645
107.721
108,823
110.601
111.671
112.732
113.811
115.065
116,363
117,881
119,759
121,343
122,981
125,154
127,224
129,236
131,180
133,319
135,562
137.841
140,182
142.596
63,858
65,117
65,730
66,560
66,993
68.072
69.409
69,729
70,275
70.921
72,142
73.031
73,442
74,571
75.830
77,178
78,893
80.793
82,272
84,239
85,903
86.929
1,650
3,100
3,592
3.545
3,350
3.049
2,857
2.800
2.636
2.552
2,514
2.572
2,828
2.738
2.739
2.723
3,123
3,446
3,535
3,506
3,188
2,816
62,208
62.017
62.138
63,015
63,643
65.023
66,552
66.929
67.639
68.369
69,628
70,459
70,614
71,833
73,091
74,455
75,770
77,347
78.737
80.733
82,715
84,113
58,920
59,962
60.254
61,181
60,110
62.171
63.802
64.071
63.036
64.630
65,778
65.746
66.702
67.762
69.305
71,088
72,895
74.372
75,920
77,902
78.627
79,120
7,160
6,726
6.501
6,261
6,206
6,449
6.283
5,947
5.586
5,565
5,458
5.200
4,944
4,687
4,523
4,361
3.979
3.844
3.817
3,606
3.462
3,387
Unemployment
rate (percent of
civilian
force)
institutional
population)
Percent
51,760
53.239
53,753
54,922
53,903
55,724
57,517
58,123
57,450
59,065
60,318
60,546
61,759
63.076
64,782
66,726
68.915
70,527
72,103
74,296
75,165
75,732
3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
3,852
4.714
3,911
4.070
3,786
3,366
2,875
2.975
2,817
2,831
4,088
4.993
3,425 75,428
3,458 75,294
3,524 75,494
3,555 75,353
3,545 74,969
3,547 74.865
3,506 75,125
3,422 75,092
3.438 75.010
3,340 75.338
3 379 75.169
3,395 75.032
3.406 75,312
3.285 75,190
3.387 75,059
3,540 75,192
3,412 75,418
3,301 75,299
3,374 75,640
3.407 75,792
3,363 76,088
3,416 76,416
3,419 76,601
3,400
•3.393 •77,243
3,357 77,266
3.482 77.759
3.324 77,881
3,353 78.041
3,337 78.330
3.445 78,237
3,208
3,435
3,634
3,861
3,990
3,976
4,173
4.255
4,497
4,588
4.870
5,058
5,012
4.886
5.009
5.056
5,156
4.801
4,916
5,114
5,040
4,918
5,096
5,127
•5,071
4,912
5,072
5,079
5.092
4,728
4,785
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
4.9
5.9
59.9
60.4
60.4
60.2
60.0
60.4
61.0
60.6
60.4
60.2
60.2
60.2
59.7
59.6
59.6
.59.7
60.1
60.6
60.7
61.1
61.3
61.0
Seasonally adjusted
139,099 85,447
139,298 85,528
139.497 85,970
139,687 86,040
139.884 85,732
140,046 85,567
140,259 85,958
140,468 85,903
140,675 86,054
140,886 86,345
141,091 86,457
141,301 86,498
141,500 86.706
141,670 86.311
141.885 86,385
142,088 86,670
142.285 86.836
142,482 86,217
142.685 86,727
142.886 87.088
143,104 87,240
143.321 87,467
143,517 87,812
143,723 87,883
•144,697 *88,301
144,895 88.075
145.077 88,817
145,227 88.747
145.427 88,905
145,639 88.788
145,854 88,855
3,386 82.061 78.853
3,341 82,187 78,752
3.318 82.652 79.018
3, 271 82,769 78.908
3,228 82,504 78,514
3,179 82,388 78,412
3.154 82,804 78,631
3,134 82,769 78,514
3.109 82,945 78,448
3,079 83,266 78,678
3,039 83,418 78,548
3,013 83.485 78,427
2,976 83,730 78,718
2.950 83.361 78.475
2,930 83,455 78,446
2,882 83,788 78,732
2.850 83,986 78,830
2,816 83,401 78,600
2,797 83,930 79,014
2.775 84,313 79,199
2.749 84.491 79,451
2.717 84,750 79.832
2.696 85,116 80,020
2,658 85,225 80,098
2.594 '85.707 •80.636
2.540 85,535 80.623
2.504 86,313 81,241
2.463 86,284 81,205
2.419 86.486 81,394
2,393 86,395 81,667
2,388 86,467 81,682
m e n L F o r ,u
' » i e r details, see "Employment and Earnings", February 1972, pp.6-9.
w e ^ f ^ b o r force data in Tables A-13 through A-15 are based on household i n t e ^ ^
u d
S J r a i . J n « t f L e I 2 t h of the month. For definitions of terms, area samples used, historical comparability or ine aau.
comparability with other series, etc.. see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
81
TABLE A-14.—Selected unemployment rates,
1950-72
[Percent)
All
workers
By selected groups
By color
By sex and age
R*th
Men
se°es
20
is ia
years
a n d
ylea
e a r s? '
over
Wornen 20
years
4.9
3.1
4.9
ExpeNegro . rienced
wage Houseand
and
hold
other
races salary heads
workers
White
a n d
over
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
12.2
8.2
8.5
7.6
12.6
4.7
2.5
2.4
2.5
4.9
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
11.0
11.1
11.6
15.9
14.6
3.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
4.7
5.1
4.0
3.2
2.9
5.5
4.4
4.2
4.1
6.1
5.2
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
14.7
16.8
14.7
17.2
16.2
4.7
5.7
4.6
4.5
3.9
5.1
6.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
4.9
5.9 j
14.8
12.8
12.8
12.7
12.2
3.2 !
2.5 .
2.3
2.2
2.1
4.5
3.8
4.2
3.8
3.7
4.9
5.0
4.6
4.1
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.1
15.2
16.9
3.5
4.4
4.8
5.7
4.5
5.4
2.8
2.7
5.0
3.9
3.6
3.8
6.1
4.8
6.0
9.0
5.3
5.4
4.5
9.9
8.7
8.3
7.9
12.6
10.7
6.0
10.2
12.4 !
10.9
10.8 i
9.6 1
8.1 '
7.3
7.4
6.7
6.4
8.2
9.9
FullBluetime 1 collar
work- i workers* j ers*
Married
men*
s
3.7
3.3
3.2
6.2
4.6 S
5.0
2.6
1.5 S
1.4
2.5
1.7
4.0 " 5 . 2
4.8 i .
4.4 i.
4 . 6 |.
7.2 .
5.7
2.8
2.6
2.8
5.1
3.6
5.7 f
6.8 |
5.6
5.5 !
5.0
3.7
4.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
3.7
3.2
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.3
«
labor
force
time
lost <
3.8 i
3.7 i
4.0 '
7.2
:
i
'"6.T;
7.8
i
"5.5"
4.9
2.7
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.1 !
H
H
1:11
6.2
Seasonally adjusted
1970: Jan
Feb . .
Mar
Apr .
May
June
July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov....
Dec
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.8
6.1
13.6
13.5
13.6
15.2
14.3
15.1
! 14.4
15.8
1
16.5
j 16.7 !!
17.2
!j 1 7 . 6 I
1971: Jan
Feb
Mar....
Apr.
May....
June....
6.0
5.9
6.0
6.0
6.1
5.8
17.5 !
16.9
17.5
17.0
17.4
16.2
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.8
4.8
July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov....
Dec
1972: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June
July....
1D a t a f o r S
5.9 < 16.5
6.1 1 17.1
6.0
16.9
5.8
16.7
6.0
16.7
6.0
17.3
5.9
17.8
:
5.7
18.8
5.9 • 1 7 . 9
5.9
17.3
5.9 ! 1 5 . 7
5.5 , 14.5
5.5 | 14.8
n
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.4
1
I
1
i
6 1 a
8
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.4
6.5
7.1
7.2
8.2
8.0
8.5
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.7
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.9
2.9
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.5 1
2.6 '
3.4
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.6
4.4
|
!
:
|
4.9
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.6
5.7
4.7
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.6
8.2
8.5
8.7
9.0
9.0
9.6
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.3
5 . 7 !!
6.0 j
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.3
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.6
4.3 1
4.3:
4.3 i
4.4
4.5 !
4.3
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.6
j
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.8
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.8
10.5
9.4
5.8
5 . 6 1!
5.8
5.7
5.9
5.5
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2 j
3.1
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.3
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.3
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.8
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.3 i
5.4
5.6 '
5.4
5.3
5.6
5.4
10.0
9.9
10.4
10.4
9.4
10.4
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.8
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.6
3.8 '
3.1
3.2 !
3.3 ;
3.0 1
3.3
3.2
5.4
5.6
5.6
4.2!
4.0 j
4.1
4.31
4.3 !
4.0 '
5.5
5.0
5.4
5.4 j
5.9
i
5.5 I
5.3
5.1
5.3 ,
5.4
5.0
10.6
10.5
10.5
9.6
10.7
9.4
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.5
5.0
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.0 i
2.8 .
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
5.4
5.3
5.4 i
5.4
5.6
5.0
5.7 I
5.0
9.9
5.3
3.3
2.7
5.1
3.7
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.5
;
;
i
!
'
"i
1
r e
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.9
4.6
W
f S M a t ^
anV O c t o b e r C r a , l S m e n ' 0 p e r a l i v e s * a n d
labour force man-hours^ 6
n o n f a r m
u n e m p , o y e d a n d
W 5
5 3
° " "
M a r c h ;
1 9 5 1
~54',or
A
5
-4
5.7
5.7 •
Pril'
laborers. Data for 1950-57 are based on data for January, April, July
p e r s o n s o n
P«t-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available
Note.—See Note, A - 1 3 .
Source: Department of labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
for
1
82
TABLE A-I5.—Unemployment by duration, 1950-72
Year or month
Duration of unemployment
Total unemployment
Less than
5 weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
27 weeks
and over
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
3.288
2.055
1.883
1,834
3.532
1,450
1,177
1.135
1,142
1,605
1.055
574
516
482
1,116
425
166
148
132
495
357
137
84
78
317
12.1
9.7
8.4
8.0
11.8
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
2.852
2.750
2.859
4,602
3.740
1,335
1,412
1,408
1,753
1,585
815
805
891
1,396
1,114
366
301
321
785
469
336
232
239
667
571
13.0
11.3
10.5
13.9
14.4
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
3.852
4.714
3,911
4,070
3,786
1,719
1,806
1,663
1,751
1,697
1,176
1,376
1,134
1,231
1,117
503
728
534
535
491
454
804
585
553
482
12.8
15.6
14.7
14.0
13.3
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
3,366
2.875
2,975
2.817
2,832
1,628
1,573
1,634
1.594
1,629
983
779
893
810
827
404
287
271
256
242
351
239
177
156
133
11.8
10.4
8.8
8.5
8.0
1970.
1971.
4,088
4,993
2,137
2,234
1,289
1.578
427
665
235
517
8.8
11.4
Seasonally adjusted »
1970:Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June-
3.208
3,435
3,634
3.861
3.990
3,976
1,800
1,975
1,993
2,155
2,137
2,051
925
1,026
1,133
1,103
1,228
1,281
281
310
357
374
361
434
138
161
182
200
237
228
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.2
8.8
9.4
July..
Aug..
oc?!::
Nov..
Dec..
4,173
4,255
4,497
4,588
4,870
5,058
2,107
2,190
2,254
2.314
2,331
2,428
1,332
1,347
1,465
1,470
1,748
1,585
440
467
511
494
565
736
232
252
284
273
327
361
9.0
8.9
9.0
8.7
9.3
9.7
» 7 1 : Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May_.
June.
5,012
4,886
5,009
5,056
5,156
4,801
2,318
2,218
2,155
2,176
2,245
2,118
1,630
1,605
1,633
1,587
1,552
1,572
619
645
640
667
630
412
454
455
448
516
545
10.3
10.4
10.7
11.0
11.4
12.6
July..
Aug..
Nov..
Dec..
4,916
5 114
5,040
4,918
5 096
5,127
2,150
2,320
2,317
2,140
2,290
2,410
1,532
1,553
1,567
1,529
1,650
1,509
704
735
683
628
741
724
551
556
567
625
570
549
11.5
11.6
12.0
12.5
11.8
11.4
* 972: J a n . . . .
Feb...
Mar..,
Apr...
May..,
June..
5.071
4,912
5.072
5,079
5,092
4,728
2,358
2,142
2,311
2.169
2,223
2.175
1,502
1,454
1,412
1,521
1,514
1,437
634
591
482
587
594
562
660
633
655
593
554
11.8
12.5
12.4
12.4
12.5
13.5
July...
4,785
2,149
1,478
658
497
11.8
oc?!::
Vi «l(UC|)SIIUCIIl WAWIldl WJVMIIKHIWI WW
Note.—See Note, Table A - 1 3 .
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
83
TABLE A-16.—Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments,
1950-72
|All employees; thousands of persons]
Year or
month
45,222
47,849
48,825
50,232
49,022
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
,
!
:
I
j
Total
Durable
goods
15,241
16,393
16,632
17,549
16,314
8,094
9,089
9,349
10,110
9,129
Nondurable
goods
i 16,882
1960
196 1
196 2
1963
1964
: 18,062 '
196 5
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
197 1
construction
Transportation
and
public
utilities
2.333
' 2,603
i 2,634 ,
2,623 '
2,612 |
4,034
4,226
4,248
4,290
4,084
I Con-
9,541
50,675
9,834
52,408 • 17,243
9,856
i 52,894 i 1 7 , 1 7 4
51,363 , 15,945 ! 8,830
j 53,313 16,675 ! 9,373
1 54,234 I 16,796 ; 9,459
9,070
| 54,042 ' 16,326
9,480
1 55,596 ! 16,853
9,616
! 56,702 ! 16,995
58,331 ! 17,274 ! 9,816
10,406
60,815
63,955 19,214
11,284
65,857 19.447
11,439
67,915 ; 19,781 11,626
70,284 I 20,167 11,895
70,616 | 19,369 11,198
70,699 18,610 10,590
195 5
1956
1957
1958
1959
I
Manufacturing
Total
wage
and
salary
work-
Mi"- I 2 ?
:__
*
, n
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
901
929
898
866
791
792
822
828
751
732
7,336
7,256
7,373
7,380
7,458 .
712 ; 2,885 ji 4,004 11,391 '
672 : 2.816 3,903 11.337
650 2,902 3,906 11,566
635 2,963 3,903 1 1 . 7 7 8 :
12,160 j
634 3,050 ; 3,951
632 ' 3,186 i 4,036 1 2 , 7 1 6 '
627 3,275 j 4 , 1 5 1 ! 13,245
613 3,208 I 4,261 13,606 ;
606 3,285 ! 4,310 14,084
619 3,435 i 4,429 14,639 !
7,656 I
7,930
8,008 !
8,155 j
8,272 :
8,171 |
8,020 j
622
601
Government
Services
State
and
local
Federal
9.386 1,919 ' 5,382 1,928
9,742
1,991 I 5.576 • 2,302
10,004 2,069 5,730 I 2,420
10,247 : 2,146 ! 5.867 : 2,305
10,235 | 2,234 ; 6,002
10,535 ! 2,335 I 6,274 j 2 , 1 8 7
10.858 2,429 I 6.536 2.209
2.477
6.749 : 2 . 2 1 7
10,750 | 2,519 6,806 2,191
i 1 1 . 1 2 7 j 2,594 7 , 1 3 0 2.233
7,147
7,304
7,284
7,438
7,185
7,340
7,409
7,319
7,116
7,303
2,802 1 4 , 1 4 1
2,999 4,244
2,923 4,241
; 2 , 7 7 8 • 3,976
: 2,960 I 4 , 0 1 1
Finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
'
;
i
!
. 2.188
10,886 -
3,345
4,504
3,259 : 4,481
2,669 I 7,423 !
2,731
7,664 I
2,800 8,028
2.877
8,325
2,957 , 8,709 .
3.023 I 9,087
3.100 9,551
3,225 10,099
3,382 10,623
3,564 11,229
2.270
2,279
2.340
2.358
2.348
2,378
2.564
2.719
2.737
2,758
2.705
2.664
14,922 j 3.690 '11,630
15,174
3,800 1 1 , 9 1 7
4,098
4.087
4,188
4.340
4,563
i 4,727
5.069
5,399
! 5,648
i 5.850
• 6,083
6,315
6,550
6,868
7,248
:
.
.
!
|
:
7.696
8,227
8.679
9,109
9.444
9.830
10,194
Seasonally adjusted
70.873
70.988
71,147
71,063
70,796
70,634
8.304 !
19,985 i
11,625 : 8,292
19.917
19,903 11,633 I 8,270 i
19,773 11,529 ! 8,244 :
19,566 , 11.396 ' 8.170 !
19,458 | 11,287 . 8 . 1 7 1 |
11,681 !
625
625
624
622
620
620
, 3,411 : 4,506 ' 14,857
. 3.453 4,496 : 14.919
3,473 4,502 ! 14,941
! 3,405 ! 4.476 : 14,950 '
: 3,349 • 4,493 14.928
. 3,333 4 . 5 1 7
14,910 |
70,605
70,445
70,480
70,082
69,985
70,313
19,394
19,258
19,235
18,669
18,517
18,796
I
!
I
:
11,222
11,132
11,116
10,598
10,449
10,738
8.172
8,126
8,119
8,071 ;
8,068 !
8,058 |
619
620
620
621
624
623
! 3,307 . 4.542 ' 14,916 ! 3.690 11,624
• 3,302 I 4,523 14,907 3.683 11,632
. 3,274 ! 4.518 14.931
3,698 11,666
3.284 4 . 5 1 7
14,946 3.706 I I , 7 2 2
3 , 2 9 4 ! 4.506
14,902 • 3 . 7 2 1 I I I . 750
. 3,302 4,450
14,952 | 3 . 7 3 1 1 1 1 , 7 7 6
1 9 7 1 : J a n . . , i 70.454
F e b . . . 70,391
M a r - 70,480
A p r . . . 70,599
May... 70,769
June.
70.657
18,747
18,684
18,609
18,639
18,702
! 10.697
10,642
; 10.571
! 10,598
: 10,651
10,598 .
8.050 j
8,042
8,038
8.041 i
8.051
625 3 , 2 7 1
622
3,198!
622 3,264
623 3,282
622 I 3,275
619 | 3,255 .
18,533 10,552 ;
18,457 10,485
18,616 10,597 .
18,560 ; 10,561 .
18,603 1 10.572
18,566 j 10,548 j
7,981
7,972
8,019
7,999 •
8,031 I
597 ! 3,228 I 4.476
609 ' 3,219 ! 4,428
616 3,250 . 4,460
521 . 3,290 . 4,442
525 3,320 4,434
607 3,245 4,465
8,035 j
8,053 •
8,081 .
8.100 !
8.116 :
8,133 |
616
612
613
603
602
598
3,320 4,502
3,236 4.479
3,272 4,536
3.233 i 4.522
3,256 4.539
3,242 4,532
15.447
15.495
15.518
15,647
15.671
15.729
10.369
2.675 10,423
3,872
10,489
3,879 1 2 , 1 7 7 : 2,672 10.538
3,890 1 2 , 2 1 7 : 2,669 10.568
2.669
3,897 ! 12,254 !
3,921 i 12.303 2.670 10.623
3,934 ; 12,358 2,625 10,634
8,064 i
597
3.153
15,730
3,923 :12,449
1970:Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec... !
July...1
Aug,..'
Sept..:
Oct...)
Nov...
Dec...!
1972:Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June
I
70.531
70.529
70.853
70,848
71,042
71,185
18,608 ;
71,584 18,609
71.729
18,690
72,030 ! 1 8 , 7 7 7
72,263 ' 18,870
72,558 • 18.973
72,647
18,995
July > . | 72,565
18,898
•
•
j
:
10,574
10.637
10,696
10.770
10,857
10,862
10,834
1
:
8,010
8,018 |
1
:
4.507
15,039 I
4,526 . 15,059
4,520 . 15,074
4.505 . 15,107
15.148 1
4.518
4.500 15.135 |i
;
4,520
I
3,652 11.488
3.659 11,526
3.672 .11,559
3,680 11.584
3,689 11,605
3.689 11.621 I
3,746
3.749
3.758
3.769
3,788
3.807
I
.
'
;
j
2.706 9,643
2.707 9,686
2 . 7 7 1 9,702
2,843 I 9,730
2 , 7 7 3 9,773
1
2,676 I 9,810
2,655 ' 9.858
2.635 9,885
2,657 9.831
2.659 9.958
2,664 10,007
! 2,661110,022
i 2,661110,058
082
i 2.662110,
'10,130
i l l , 800
•11,809
2.662
11.841
I I . 8 4 3 I 2.667 .10.164
i
I I I . 858 2,667 10,191
111,895 j 2,640 10.198
15.158 ! 3.806 11.921
15,223 i 3.804 11.946
15,273 : 3.821 : i l . 9 6 2
15,270 3.834 11.996
15.278 3,851 12,044
15.315 3,860 12,089
1
2.643 10.169
2 650 10.193
2 674 ;l2'J!l
2.
2.§75 110.260
2,669
12.120 :
2,606 10.689
N o t e . - D a t a in Tables A - 1 6 through A - 1 8 are based on reports from employing establishments and relate to full- and
part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during, or received pay for. any pari or
the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Not comparable with labor force data (Tables A - 1 3 through A - 1 5 ) , which include proprietors, self-employed persons
domestic servants and unpaid family workers, and which count persons as employed when they are not at work because
ol industrial disputes, bad weather, etc.
For description and details of the various establishment data, see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
84
TABLE A-17.—Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagricultural
industries, 1950-72
(For production or nonsupervisory workers]
Average gross hourly earnings,
current dollars
Average weekly hours i
Year
or
month
1950...,
1951
1952....
1953....
1954
1955.,..
1956....
1957....
1958....
1960...
1961....
1952....
1963....
1964...,
1965....
1966....
1967...,
1968....
1969
1970....
1971....
Total
private Manu<
nonag- • facturriculing
turali
39.8
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.1
Contrac!
s
40.5 i
40.6 :
40.7 j
40.5 :
39.6 j
39.6
40.7 j
39.3
40.4
38.8 ; 39.8
38.5
39.2
39.0
40.3
38.6
39.7
38.6
39.8
38.7
40.4
38.8
40.5
38.7
40.7
41.2
38.8
38.6
41.3
38.0
40.6
37.8
40.7
37.7
40.6
37.1
39.8 :
37.0
39.9
{f "
uc
0n
37.4
38.1
38.9
37.9
37.2
37.1
37.5
37.0
36.8
37.0
36.7
36.9
37.0
37.3
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.7
37.4
37.9
37.4
37.3 i
1967=100
Tnfcil
Retail
i Sffi
j
Adjusted hourly earnings,
total private nonagricultural »
firivate 1 M a n u "
nonagri-! ^
, n
.culturali
*
40.4 $1,335
40.4 <
1.45
39.8 I
1.52
39.1
1.61
1.65
39.2 j
Contract Retail
^ s t r u c trade'
t , o n
1967
dollars «
$1,863
2.02
2.13
2.28
2.39
$0,983
1.06
1.09
1.16
1.20
50.0 ! 69.3
53.7
69.0
56.4
70.9
59.6
74.4
61.7
76.6
3.7
7.4
5.0
5.7
3.5
2.45
2.57
2.71
2.82
2.93
1.25
1.30
1.37
1.42
1.47
2.26
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.53
3.08
3.20
3.31
3.41
3.55
1.52
1.56
1.63
1.68
1.75
1.82
1.91
2.01
2.16
2.30
2.44
2.57
63.7
79.4
67.0
82.3
70.3
83.4
73.2
84.5
75.8
86.8
78.4
88.4
90.2
80.8
92.2
83.5
93.7
85.9
95.3
88.6
97.2
91.9
95.6
98.4
100.0 , 100.0
106.6 i 102.3
113.6 ; 103.5
121.2 j 104.2
129.6 ! 106.9
3.2
5.2
4.9
4.1
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.3
2.9
3.1
3.7
4.0
4.6
6.6
6.6
1.71
1.80
1.89
1.95
2.02
2.09
2.14
2.22
2.28
2.36
36.6
35.9
35.3
34.7
34.2
2.45
2.56
2.68
2.85
3.04
2.61
2.72
2.83
3.01
3.19
3.70
3.89
4.11
4.41
4.79
33.8
33.7
3.22
3.43
3.36
3.57
5.25
5.72
July.,
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..
1972:Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June*
July P
37.4
37.4
37.3
37.2
37.1
37.2
37.2
37.1
36.7
36.9
36.9
37.0
36.9
37.0
37.0
37.0
36.9
37.1
i 40.2 !
; 40.2 !
! 40.1 '
' 39.9
• 39.8 39.9 i
40.1
39.8
39.3
39.4
39.6 •
39.5 j
39.8
39.8
39.8
39.8
40.0
40.0
36.9
36.9
36.7
37.0 !
37.1
37.2
40.0
39.8
39.5
39.8
40.1
40.3
37.0
37.2
37.1
37.3
37.0
37.3
37,3
37.3
38.1
38.0
38.1
37.9
37.5
37.4
37.3 !
35.0 .
37.0
37.2
37.7
37.6 !
36.8
37.8
37.1
36.8
37.2
$3.28
3.29
3.31
3.32
3.34
3.36
33.8
33.9
33.7
33.8
33.7
33.7
$3.13 :
3.15
3.17
3.18
3.19
3.21
3.23
3.26 ,
3.26
3.27
3.29
3.31
3.38
3.40
3.42
3.37
3.39
3.46
5.26
5.35 *
5.33
5.39
5.43
5.43
33.6
33.6
33.5 j
33.7 !
33.7 !
33.7
3.33
3.35
3.37
3.39
3.41
3.42
3.48
3.51
3.52
3.54
3.55
3.57
5.49
5.54
5.56
5.60
5.67
5.70
33.8
33.6
33.6
33.8
33.7
33.9
3.58
3.59
3.60
3.60
3.60
3.68
5.72
5.78
5.81
5.84
5.86
5.90
$2.37
2.39
2.40
2.41
2.42
2.43
2.45
2.47
2.48
2.48
2.49
2.49
2.51
2.53
2.54
2.55
2.56
2.57
2.59
2.59
2.60
2.60
2.60
2.64
3.69
3.72
3.74
3.77
3.79
3.79
5.94
5.96
5.99
6.04
6.05
6.05
2.65
2.65
2.66
2.67
2.67
2.68
i 121.4
122.5
123.2
123.4
124.1
125.0
126.0
126.7
127.3
128.1
129.1
129.3
130.0
130.9
131.3
131.4
131.6
133.5
134.5
134.7
135.5 j
136.6
136.8 !
136.9 j
3.80
6.00
2.71
137.5 I.
33.8
33.8
33.8
33.6
33.8
33.8
40.0
40.5
40.4
40.8
40.5
40.7
37.1
37.1
35.7
37.6
39.0
36.8
37.4
37.3
37.5
36.7
36.6
36.9
33.7
33.5
33.6
33.7
33.7
33.9
3.43
3.46
3.46
3.48
3.48
3.52
3.54
3.55
3.58
3.61
3.61
3.61
40.7
37.3
33.9
3.62
$5.05
5.06
5.10
5.16
5.14
5.21
1
Also includes other private industry groups shown in Table A-16.
{ ' " R e s e a t i n g and drinking places.
„
.
•Adjusted for interindustry shifts and for overtime (in manufacturing only),
current dollar earnings index divided by the consumer price index,
•computed from indexes to two decimal places.
Note.—See Note, Table 16.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
85
6.7
6.9
2.7
-.4
2.8
4.9
3.0
•
j
3.7
3.7
1.3
1.3
2.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
|
!
1.6
1.7
2.0
1.2
1.6
2.3
1.2
.7
2.6
Seasonally
adjusted
annual rates ®
Seasonally adjusted
1970: J a n . .
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..
1971: J a n .
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
i 1967
1m j " "
$1,440
1.56
1.65
1.74
1.78
1.86
1.95
2.05
2.11
2.19
39.0 I
38.6 i
38.1
38.1
38.2
38.0
37.6
37.4
37.3
37.0
j
•
j
j
i
!
Current
dollars
Percent
change
from
preceding
period
! 117.4
. 118.0
' 118.8
119.3
120.0
120.6
103.5
103.4
103.7
103.5
103.7
103.8
104.2
104.9
104.8
104.5
104.7
105.0
105.6
105.9
106.2
106.5
1C6.9
106.6
106.9
107.3
107.5
107.4
107.3
108.5
109.0
108.6
109.2
109.9
109.7
109.9
4.2
-2.3
11.2
6.3
2.5
6.9
8.7
10.4
7.0
5.5
7.8
10.3
1.9
6.3
9.0
3.6
.9
1.3
19.3
7.7
-.7
-3.5
2.3
3.1
6.2 -1.0
3.8
9.0
4.6 -2.1
2.1
7.5
6.1 1 . 4
8.8 4.8
9.3
2.0
7.5
9.9
1.4
1.7
5.1
6.7
3.9
3.0
4.5
3.8
-2.8
2.9
4.8
1.8
-.9
-1.0
15.0
5.4
-4.7
7.1
7.7
-2.5
1.0
TABLE A-18.—Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries,
J950-72
|For production or nonsupervisory workers]
Average gross weekly earnings
Total private
nonagricultural1
Current
dollars
Contract
construction
Manufacturing
Average spendable
weekly earnings, total
private nonagricultural «
Retail
trade *
Current
dollars
Current dollars
1967
dollars*
86.41
88.91
$39.71
42.82
43.38
45.36
47.04
$52.04
55.79
57.87
60.31
75.70
78.78
81.59
82.71
90.90
96.38
100.27
103.78
108.41
48.75
50.18
52.20
54.10
56.15
63.41
65.82
67.71
69.11
89.72
92.34
96.56
99.63
102.97
113.04
85.91
88.46
91.33
90.95
92.19
94.82
96.47
98.31
122.47
127.19
132.06
57.76
58.66
60.96
|
64.75
|
72.96
74.48
76.99
78.56
82.57
95.06
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61
100.59
101.67
101.84
103.39
104.38
107.53
112.34
114.90
122.51
129.51
138.38
146.26
154.95
164.93
181.54
66.61
86.30
68.57 I
70.95 ;
74.95
78.66
90.86
95.28
99.99
119.46
126.91
102.72
104.62
133.73
142.44
196.35
213.36
$117.06
117.81
118.24
118.30
118.35
119.41
$103.18
103.23
103.19
102.67
102.27
102.81
$131.86
132.26
132.73
132.47
132.93
134.06
$188.37
120.16
120.95
119.64
120.66
121.40
122.47
103.13
103.54
101.83
102.18
102.44
102.89
122.88
123.95
124.69
125.43
125.83
126.88
$53.13
57.86
60.65
63.76
64.52
$73.69
74.37
76.29
79.60
80.15
$58.32
63.34
67.16
70.47
70.49
$69.68
76.96
67.72
70.74
73.33
75.08
78.78
84.44
86.90
86.99
86.70
90.24
88.26
80.67
82.60
82.86
118.08
60.85
71.86
62.66 ;
82.47
88.66
104.61
86.61
112.12
192.79
193.80
196.60
194.81
195.38
$80.11
80.78
81.12
80.98
81.80
82.13
$102.73
103.30
103.64
103.69
103.73
104.57
135.54
135.32
134.41
132.78
134.24
136.67
196.72
199.56
186.55
199.43
202.00
204.71
82.81
83.73
83.58
83.82
83.91
83.91
105.16
105.79
104.75
105.56
106.14
106.99
102.95
103.59
103.99
104.34
104.15
104.61
138.50
139.70
140.10
140.89
142.00
142.80
206.42
203.87
210.17
207.76
208.66
212.04
84.34
85.01
85.09
85.94
86.27
86.61
108.94
109.78
110.37
126.57
127.67
126.98
128.76
129.11
130.94
104.07
104.62
103.91
105.20
105.29
106.46
143.20
142.88
142.20
143.28
144.36
148.30
212.21
214.44
207.42
219.58
228.54
217.12
87.54
87.02
87.36
87.88
87.62
89.50
111.85
112.71
112.17
113.57
113.85
115.29
130.98
132.06
132.82
134.65
133.57
134.65
106.18
106.45
107.03
108.32
107.10
107.90
147.60
150.66
151.10
153.82
153.50
154.25
222.16
222.31
224.63
221.67
221.43
223.25
89.31
88.78
89.38
89.98
89.98
90.85
117.01
117.86
118.46
119.90
119.05
119.90
154.66
777 flfl
ca.w
m B7
120.20
Seasonally adjusted
135.03
91.0/
110.95
111.26
112.09
i Also includes other private Industry groups shown in Table A - 1 6 .
! g W 5 'n current dollars divided by the consumer price Index
»Includes eating and drinking places.
* Average gross weekly earnings less social security and income taxes for a worker with three dependents.
Note.—See Note, Table A - 1 6 .
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
86
$90.55
90.52
90.44
89.99
89.64
90.03
90.26
90.56
89.16
89.40
89.56
89.88
91.27
91.75
92.05
92.30
92.09
92.41
9I
?J
92.36
91.79
92.79
92.85
93.73
94.85
95.00
95.46
96.45
96.08
TABLE A-19.—Output per mem-hour and related data, private economy, 1950-72
11967=100]
Output'
Year or quarter
1 9 50
1951
Man-hours *
60.1
51.3
55.0
56.3
59.1
59.3
58.3
88.6
1 9 55
1 9 56
1 9 57
1 9 58
1 9 59
64.3
65.6
66.5
65.6
70.2
63.4
64.7
65.7
64.8
69.5
92.1
93.7
92.3
88.4
91.2
1 9 60
1961
1 9 62
1 9 63
1 9 64
71.9
73.2
78.2
81.5
71.1
72.5
77.6
80.9
85.9
92.0
90.6
92.4
92.9
94.5
.
1 9 65
196 6
:.
86.2
91.8
97.7
1
1
91.5
97.9
82.6
59.7
61.5
62.7
65.3
66.9
65.0
66.3
66.9
68.9
86.1
69.9
88.4
87.9
84.5
87.6
72.0
74.3
76.9
73.6
73.2
74.8
76.7
79.3
88.6
87.7
89.8
90.9
92.9
96.3
99.5
70.5
70.0
78.2
80.9
84.7
87.7
80.3
82.7
86.4
89.1
92.4
91.1
95.1
98.4
94.2
98.0
104.0 i 104.9
102.9
103.5
102.9
102.9
- 107.2 ; 102.4 ! 103.5
! 1 1 0 . 4 i 1 0 1 . 7 | 102.8
104.6
108.5
103.6
107.4
100.0
}9§8
U69
104.8
—
! 107.7 .
105.1
108.0
110.3
97.4
99.7
79.0
82.9
84.1
85.9
100.0
100.0
107.1
87.9
90.7
91.2
92.0
100.0
1967
1970.
1971.
Compensation
per man-hour >
Unit labor
costs
Implicit price
deflator'
Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private
private non- private non- private non- private non- private nonfarm
farm
farm
farm
farm
52.5
55.8
57.2
1 9 52
1 9 53
1 9 54
Output per
man-hour
100.0
101.8
100.0
102.1
42.8
46.9
49.8
52.9
54.5
45.3
49.3
52.0
54.9
56.6
81.5
55.9
59.5
63.3
62.0
58.6
80.1
65.5
68.1
66.0
69.0
71.0
71.7
74.4
77.7
73.9
76.3
79.3
80.8
82.2
86.1
84.9
88.4
94.5
89.2
94.6
71.7
76.3
79.4
81.0
85.0
87.9
88.9
89.8
91.8
92.1
91.8
92.1
93.1
93.8
96.5
69.7
74.3
77.6
79.7
80.3
79.6
84.7
87.6
88.7
89.5
92.0
92.3
91.8
92.3
93.2
93.9
96.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
107.3
114.8
104.6
111.9
104.3
115.8
124.5
133.0
123.1
131.5
119.0
122.6
100.0
107.6
111.6
118.8
122.4
Seasonally adjusted
1970:
I....
106.8
II...
III..
IV...
1971: I
I
IV
1972:
II
...I
...I
107.3
107.9
106.5
107.0
107.3
108.1
106.5
103.7
104.9
103.1
104.0
102.0
100.8
103.1
102.0
128.4
130.7
132.5
134.4
122.4
123.2
123.6
121.1
122.3
123.1
123.3
117.0
118.2
119.0
119.3
118.3
119.1
119.1
137.3
138.9
125.1
124.
124.5
124.4
121.2
106.1
106.9
109.1
130.1
132.0
134.1
135.9
110.3
111.6
138.6
140.5
108.7
109.8
110.5
112.7
102.2
103.3
114.9
117.7
103.1
104.0
104.2
105.4
110.8
112.5
114.3
117.0
111.5
112.8
113.9
115.9
119.9
121.9
124.5
! 109.7
S 110.4
112.3
102.5
126.1
111.8
112.8
113.9
115.6
121.5
123.1
126.0
127.7
107.3
107.8
108.8
109.9
102.8
102.6
117.5
118.1
118.7
120.7
102.0
103.2
104.9
104.4
! 108.7
101.3
101.7
101.4
117.9
118.3
119.1
120.9
103.0
104.0
105.8
105.6
107.6
121.2
r
120.6
117.1
120.2
120.7
J Output refers to gross national product in 1 9 5 8 dollars..
.
. , „
_ .
^
»„H imnaid family
J J p u r s of all persons in private industry engaged in produrtiojijnduding man-hours of proprietors and unpaid ramiiy
» and private benefits plans. Also
4
Current dollar gross product divided by constant dollar product.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
87
TABLE A-20.—Changes in output per man-hour and related data, private economy, 1950-72
(Percent change from preceding period}
Man-hours *
Output i
Year or
quarter
Output per
man-hour
Compensation
per man-hour'
Unit labor
costs
Implicit price
deflator«
Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private
private nonfarm private nonfarm private nonfarm private nonfarm private nonfarm private nonfarm
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
10.2
6.3
2.5
5.1
-1.3
10.6
7.0
2.5
5.1
-1.5
2.0
3.2
.5
.8
-3.7
4.0
4.9
1.5
2.1
-3.8
8.1
3.0
1.9
4.2
2.4
6.3
2.0
.9
2.9
2.3
6.8
9.6
6.1
6.3
3.1
5.5
8.7
5.5
5.6
3.2
-1.2
6.4
4.1
2.0
.6
-0.8
6.6
4.5
2.6
.9
1.0
7.3
1.9
.7
1.2
1.1
6.5
2.6
1.8
1.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
8.5
1.9
1.4
-1.3
7.0
8.8
2.0
1.6
-1.5
7.3
3.9
1.7
-1.5
-4.2
3.3
4.2
2.6
-.6
-3.9
3.7
4.4
.2
2.9
3.1
3.6
4.4
-.6
2.2
2.5
3.4
2.6
6.4
6.5
4.2
4.6
3.5
5.8
5.7
3.8
4.3
-1.7
6.2
3.5
1.1
1.0
-.9
6.4
3.4
1.3
.9
.9
3.2
3.6
2.1
1.4
1.3
3.4
3.7
1.7
1.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
2.4
1.9
6.8
4.2
5.7
2.4
1.9
7.1
4.3
6.1
.8
-1.5
2.0
.6
1.8
1.1
-1.0
2.5
1.2
2.3
1.6
3.5
4.7
3.6
3.9
1.2
3.0
4.6
3.1
3.7
3.9
3.8
4.4
4.0
5.0
4.1
3.2
4.0
3.6
4.7
2.2
.3
-.3
.4
1.1
2.8
.2
-.5
.5
1.0
1.4
.9
.9
1.0
1.2
1.4
.9
.9
1.2
1.3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
6.6
6.4
2.3
4.8
2.8
6.6
7.0
2.2
5.1
2.8
3.1
2.4
.3
1.8
2.2
3.6
3.3
.5
2.1
2.7
3.4
4.0
2.1
2.9
.6
2.9
3.5
1.6
2.9
.0
4.1
6.9
5.8
7.6
7.6
3.7
6.1
5.7
7.3
7.0
.7
2.8
3.7
4.6
7.0
.8
2.5
4.0
4.3
7.0
1.7
2.5
2.9
3.6
4.5
1.4
2.2
3.3
3.5
4.5
1970
1971
-.5
3.0
-.7
3.0
-1.6
-.7
-1.4
-.7
1.1
3.7
.7
3.7
7.5
6.9
7.2
6.9
6.4
3.0
6.5
3.1
4.8
4.3
5.0
4.3
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
-2.6
2.3
-5.1
1.7
-3.0
1.1
2.9
-5.7
-1.4
-2.2
-4.3
-4.5
-1.2
-3.6
-3.5
-4.0
-1.2
4.0
7.0
-.6
-1.8
4.8
6.6
-1.7
6.9
5.4
9.6
5.6
6.5
7.1
8.9
4.9
8.2
1.4
2.5
6.3
8.4
2.2
2.1
6.8
5.2
3.8
3.8
6.3
8.7
3.7
2.5
7.2
8.6
4.1
2.4
8.1
2.1
1.7
-1.2
3.0
2.1
1.0
-.5
2.6
6.5
2.0
3.8
4.1
6.4
3.1
2.9
5.4
7.7
6.1
6.4
5.6
7.8
7.2
5.6
6.0
1.1
4.0
2.5
1.5
1.3
4.0
2.7
.5
4.7
4.3
2.8
1.0
7.0
9.7
8.1
10.0
3.6
3.5
3.5
4.8
3.3
6.0
4.5
5.0
8.1
5.6
8.7
4.7
4.7
-.4
4.0
-.2
4.2
2.0
J Output refers to gross national product in 1958 dollars.
^ K u r S M i a l L p e r S o n S 4 - m P r f wte industry engaged in production, including man-hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Man-hours estimates based primarily on establishment data.
• J i J S ? and salaries of employees plus employers' contribution for social insurance and private benefits plans. Also
i nd N e« e s7n P faWeV-19 n £ e S " "
b3Sed 0n
original data a n d
thererore m
Source: Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
88
®y
differ
slightly from percent changes based on
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
TABLE A-21 .—Industrial production indexesf major industry divisions, 1950-72
11967=100)
Total
industrial
production
Year or month
Manufacturing
Total
Mining
Durable
Nondurable
Utilities
1950..
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
44.9
48.7
50.6
54.8
51.9
45.0
48.6
50.6
55.1
51.5
43.7
49.2
52.2
59.0
52.0
46.2
47.8
48.7
50.7
51.0
65.7
72.1
71.5
73.4
7L9
26.5
30.3
32.8
35.6
38.3
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
58.5
61.1
61.9
57.9
64.8
58.2
60.5
61.2
56.9
64.1
59.5
61.5
61.9
54.2
62.2
56.6
59.5
60.5
61.0
67.0
80.2
84.4
84.5
77.5
81.1
42.8
47.0
50.2
52.5
57.8
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
66.2
66.7
72.2
76.5
81.7
65.4
65.6
7U4
75.8
81.2
63.3
62.1
69.0
73.5
79.0
68.6
70.7
75.1
79.2
84.4
82.7
83.2
85.6
89.0
91.1
61.8
65.3
70.2
75.1
81.9
1965...
1966...
1957...
1968...
1969...
89.2
97.9
100.0
105.7
110.7
89.1
98.3
100.0
105.7
110.5
88.5
99.0
100.0
105.5
110.0
90.0
97.3
100.0
106.0
111.1
93.9
98.4
100.0
103.9
107.2
86.9
93.6
100.0
109.4
119.5
1970...
1971
106.7
106.8
105.2
105.2
101.5
99.4
110.6
113.6
109.7
107.0
128.3
133.9
Seasonally adjusted
1
107.4
108.0
107.6
107.5
107.5
107.6
106.4
107.0
106.7
106.5
106.5
10&6
103.7
103.5
104.3
103.6
103.6
103.7
110.4
111.8
110.2
110.5
110.9
111.0
109.5 !
109.2 I1
109.1 i1i
108.7
108.6 |
107.1 |
124.1
125.0
123.9
125.9
126.9
127.9
1
107.5
107.5
106.5
103.7
102.6
104.6
106.9
106.4
104.8
101.4
100.2
102.4
103.7
103.8
100.7
95.7
93.8
97.3
111.6
110.3
110.7 1
109.7
109.6
110.0
106.5
108.9
110.9
112.4
113.7
112.1
130.2
129.5
133.9
134.0
129.6
130.2
105.3
105.7
105.5
106.2
107.4
107.4
103.3
103.9
103.2
104.4
105.9
106.0
98.1
98.6
98.3
99.1
101.1
100.7
110.9
111.7
110.4
112.1
112.8
113.7
111.1
110.1
111.4
110.4
108.7
108.6
129.6
132.2
131.5
133.2
132.8
133.8
106.8
105.6
107.1
106.8
107.4
108.1
105.8
104.2
105.7
106.1
106.0
106.2
100.3
97.4
99.3
100.1
99.1
99.5
113.8
114.0
115.1
114.7
115.9
116.0
105.6
106.3
105.9
97.7
102.5
107.8
136.2
134.1
134.0
135.2
136.0
135.8
108.7
110.0
110.9
112.1
112.4
112.7
107.1
108.5
109.2
111.0
111.3
111.4
100.4
102.1
102.8
105.1
105.4
105.4
116.8
117.8
118.3
119.6
119.9
119.9
107.3
107.2
108.5
108 9
106.5
108.2
137.4
139.7
139.7
141.6
143.0
140.5
1970:Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July..
Aug..,
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec..,
»71:
Jan..
Feb...
Mar...
Apr..,
May..
June..
S
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
!
I
1
1972:Jan..
Feb...
Mar...
MayV;
June »_
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
89
TABLE A-22.—Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
1950-721
{Billions of dollars]
Transportation
Manufacturing
Year or
quarter
Total
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Mining
Railroad
Air
Other
Public
utilities
Communication
Commercial
and
other >
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
20.21
25.46
26.43
28.20
27.19
7.39
10.71
11.45
11.86
11.24
2.94
4.82
5.21
5.31
4.91
4.45
5.89
6.24
6.56
6.33
0.84
1.11
1.21
1.25
1.28
1.18
1.58
1.50
1.42
.93
0.10
.14
.24
.24
.24
1.09
1.33
1.23
1.29
1.22
3.24
3.56
3.74
4.34
3.99
1.14
1.37
1.61
1.78
1.82
5.22
5.67
5.45
6.02
6.45
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
29.53
35.73
37.94
31.89
33.55
11.89
15.40
16.51
12.38
12.77
5.41
7.45
7.84
5.61
5.81
6.48
7.95
8.68
6.77
6.95
1.31
1.64
1.69
1.43
1.36
1.02
1.37
1.58
.86
1.02
.26
.35
.41
.37
.78
1.30
1.31
1.30
1.06
1.33
4.03
4.52
5.67
5.52
5.14
2.11
2.82
3.19
2.79
2.72
7.63
8.32
7.60
7.48
8.44
36.75
35.91
38.39
40.77
46.97
15.09
14.33
15.06
16.22
19.34
7.23
6.31
6.79
7.53
9.28
7.85
8.02
8.26
8.70
10.07
1.30
1.29
1.40
1.27
1.34
1.16
.82
1.02
1.26
1.66
.66
.73
.52
.40
1.02
1.30
1.23
1.65
1.58
1.50
5.24
5.00
4.90
4.98
5.49
3.24
3.39
3.85
4.06
4.61
8.75
9.13
9.99
10.99
12.02
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
54.42
63.51
65.47
67.76
75.56
23.44
28.20
28.51
28.37
31.68
11.50
14.06
14.06
14.12
15.96
11.94
14.14
14.45
14.25
15.72
1.46
1.62
1.65
1.63
1.86
1.99
2.37
1.86
1.45
1.86
1.22
1.74
2.29
2.56
2.51
1.68
1.64
1.48
1.59
1.68
6.13
7.43
8.74
10.20
11.61
5.30
6.02
6.34
6.83
8.30
13.19
14.48
14.59
15.14
16.05
1970
1971
1972'
79.71
81.21
89.61
31.95
29.99
31.68
15.80
14.15
15.75
16.15
15.84
15.93
1.89
2.16
2.40
1.78
1.67
1.90
3.03
1.88
2.37
1.23
1.38
1.37
13.14
15.30
17.39
10.10
10.77
12.30
16.59
18.05
20.20
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970: 1
II....
III...
IV....
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
32.44
32.43
32.15
30.98
16.40
16.32
15.74
14.92
16.05
16.11
16.40
16.05
1.92
1.84
1.86
1.94
1.74
1.88
1.96
1.56
2.94
2.88
3.24
3.08
1.37
1.12
1.22
1.22
12.14
12.72
13.84
13.68
9.14
10.38
10.62
10.20
16.52
16.98
17.00
15.97
1971: 1
II....
III....
IV....
79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18
30.46
30.12
29.19
30.35
14.21
14.06
13.76
14.61
16.25
16.06
15.43
15.74
2.04
2.08
2.23
2.30
1.46
1.88
1.72
1.64
1.29
2.28
1.68
2.26
1.33
1.40
1.48
1.33
14.64
14.91
15.87
15.74
10.70
11.21
10.73
10.44
17.39
17.72
17.85
19.10
11.71
20.10
1972: I
..
86.79
30.09
15.06
15.02
2.42
2.10
1.96
1.48
16.92
IP...
IIP..
90.69
89.72
32.55
31.86
16.26
16.02
16.29
15.84
2.36
2.36
1.87
1.92
3.01
2.20
1.46
1.36
16.71
17.69
IV».._
90.89
32.01
15.59
16.42
32.72
32.33
,
58.88
n r f l a n ^ n c V S L l ^ r a , b u s ' n e s s : r e a l e s t a t » operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural s e r v i c e ; and nonprofit
S E S f S E » I 5 E ! f i 5 u [ e s . d o , " o l ® « r e e precisely with the fixed investment data in the gross national product estimates,
outlays charged to current a c c o u n t , n v e s l m e n t b y f a r m e r s - Professionals, institutions, and real estate firms, and certain
I C ^ m e r c i a l and other includes'trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.
, ,
..lltf
m n ^ f w f t K i " f * p e c l ? d c a B , t a ' expenditures reported by business in late April and May 1972. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in expectations data.
allyadj^fed^gulS31 *
t h
°
S U m
°f
u n a d
' u s l e d expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide wit h the average of season-
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
90
TABLE A-23.—New construction activity,
1950-72
Private
Year or month
Total new
construction
expenditures
Construction contracts'
Residential1
Total
Total *
Commercial
and
New
housing industrial
units
Other*
Federal,
State,
and
local
Total
value
index
(1967100)
Commercial and
industrial
floor space
(millions
of square
feet)
Billions of dollars
1950.
1951.
1952..
1953.
1954..
33.6
35.4
36.8
39.1
41.4
26.7
26.2
26.0
27.9
29.7
18.1
15.9
15.8
16.6
18.2
15.6
13.2
12.9
13.4
14.9
2.5
3.6
3.5
4.0
4.2
6.1
6.7
6.8
7.3
7.2
6.9
9.3
10.8
11.2
11.7
40
41
44
45
50
237
225
197
235
238
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
46.5
47.6
49.1
50.2
55.3
34.8
34.9
35.1
34.7
39.2
21.9
20.2
19.0
19.8
24.3
18.2
16.1
14.7
15.4
19.2
5.6
6.7
7.1
6.0
6.0
7.3
8.0
9.0
8.9
8.9
11.7
12.7
14.1
15.5
16.1
59
60
61
67
68
298
436
421
359
440
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
54.6
56.3
60.0
64.6
67.4
38.8
39.1
42.1
45.2
47.0
23.0
23.1
25.2
27.9
28.0
17.3
17.1
19.4
21.7
21.8
7.0
7.5
8.0
7.9
9.0
8.8
8.6
9.0
9.4
10.1
15.9
17.1
17.9
19.4
20.4
68
70
78
86
89
461
443
500
534
599
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
73.4
76.0
77.5
86.6
93.4
51.4
52.0
52.0
59.0
65.4
27.9
25.7
25.6
30.6
33.2
21.7
19.4
19.0
24.0
25.9
13.8
16.2
14.7
16.0
22.1
24.0
25.5
27.6
28.0
93
95
100
113
124
680
753
694
779
883
1970..
1971..
94.0
109.4
65.9
79.5
31.9
43.1
24.3
34.9
16.3
17.0
17.8
19.4
28.1
29.9
123
144
743
730
23.4
26.3
26.4
Seasonally
adjusted
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970: J a n . .
Feb..
Mar...
131
137
132
130
110
120
1,066
971
805
768
698
654
28.3
28.3
29.1
31.1
116
135
118
115
130
132
845
732
722
621
648
656
19.2
19.1
19.2
19.5
19.1
19.7
30.2
30.3
30.2
30.0 .
30.1 I
28.8
124
126
142
161
141
147
652
600
785
658
761
754
17.8
17.8
16.4
16.8
17.3
17.3
19.1
19.6
19.6
19.3
19.8
20.0
29.7
29.0
29.1
31.6
30.5
30.3
151
153
154
137
155
160
728
658
849
741
824
800
18.2
17.9
18.0
18.1
18.9
18.7
20.8
32.2
30.9
30.4
28.9
29.8
30.0
165
155
159
167
165
154
716
801
800
786
983
846
May.".
June..
91.9
91.9
92.1
90.9
91.0
92.6
64.6
65.3
65.3
64.4
64.0
64.8
31.9
31.9
31.5
30.7
30.2
30.2
24.1
23.5
23.3
23.1
22.9
23.0
16.2
16.6
16.9
16.5
16.5
16.9
16.5
16.8
16.9
17.2
17.3
17.8
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
93.2
94.3
94.7
95.9
97.6
101.6
64.4
65.6
66.3
67.6
68.5
70.4
30.5
30.9
31.9
33.4
34.5
35.4
23.5
24.2
24.7
25.4
26.1
27.2
15.9
16.5
16.1
15.9
15.7
16.1
18.1
18.2
18.3
18.3
18.3
18.9
1971: J a n . .
Feb..
Mar..
May.*.
June..
102.3
103.5
104.9
107.2
108.0
108.5
72.1
73.2
74.7
77.2
77.9
79.7
36.5
37.7
38.8
40.4
41.9
42.9
28.7
30.0
31.1
32.3
33.8
34.8
16.5
16.4
16.7
17.3
16.9
17.1
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct..
Nov...
Dec..
110.2
111.0
110.7
114.0
114.6
115.6
80.5
82.1
81.6
82.4
84.2
85.2
43.6
44.6
45.6
46.4
47.1
47.9
35.7
36.7
37.5
37.7
38.0
38.7
120.8
121.7
123.0
120.6
122.4
123.3
88.6
90.8
92.6
91.7
92.6
93.3
49.6
51.9
53.1
52.8
52.4
53.0
40.4
42.8
44.0
416
43.2
43.6
W2: Jan....
Feb....
Mar....
Apr
May....
June
21.0
21.4
20.9
21.3
21.6
27.3
26.6
26.8
26.5
26.9
27.8
28.7
28.8
I Beginning I960, farm residential buildings included in residential; prior to 1960. included in M i r Pjjnta.
50
States and the District beginning 1969 for value index and 1971 for floor space.
Sources: Department of Commerce and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
91
Seasonally
adjusted
annual
rates
TABLE A-24.—Xew privately owned housing starts and authorizations,
1959-72
(Thousands of units|
Private housing starts
Year or month
Total
One unit
Two or more
units
1,516.8 :
1.234.3
282.5
1,252.1
1,313.0
1,462.7 •
1.610.3
1.528.8
994.7
974.4 ;
991.3
1,020.7 j,
970.5
257.4
338.6
471.4
589.6
558.3
963.8
778.5 :
843.9
899.5 !j
810.6
509.0
386.4
447.7
608.2
656.2
1.472.9
1.165.0
1.291.6
1,507.7
1,466.8
1.433.6
2,052.2
812.9
1,151.0
620.7
901.2
1970:Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
and^O 000 Z p^oM(n963 Ce ° F
BUI,DING PCRMLT: IN 1 3 0 0 0
'
PE"nit-issuing places beginning 1967; 12,000 for 1963-66;
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
92
TABLE A-25.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1950-72
[Amounts in millions of dollars]
Year or month
Total manufacturing
and trade
Manufacturing
Merchant wholesalers
Sales »
Sr.!"—
Sales i Inventories'
1950
195 1
195 2
195 3
1954
38,596
43.356:
44.840
47.987.
46,443j
59,822'
70.242
72.377
76.122
73,175i
1.36
1.55!
1.58
1.58!
1.60,
18,634!
21,714.
22,529
24,843
23,355|
31,078
39,306!
41,136'
43,948,
41,612
1.48
1.66'
1.78
1.76=
1.81
195 5
195 6
195 7
195 8
195 9
51,694.
54.063'
55,879.
54,233
59,661]
79.516,•
87,304
89,052'
86,922
91.891
1.475
1.551
1.59.
1.60
1.50.
26.48o|
27,740.
28.736
27,280.
30.219
45.069!
50,642.
51,871
50,070
52,707
1.62
1.73
1.80
1.84j
1.70
1960...
1961«.
1962...
1963...
1964...
60.746 1 94,747
61,133 95.648
65,417 101.090
68,969 105.477,
73.685,111,457
1.56
1.54
1.511
1.49,
1.47:
30,796'
30,89633,113
35,032 ,
37,335
53,814'
54.939)
58.213
60,043
63,386
41,003,
44,869
46,449.
1:551 50,282'
LK 53,555!
68,2211
77,965
84,606
90,835
96,956
I
Ratio 3
Sales i
Retail trade
Inven*
Inventories * Ratio » Sales 1 tories 2 Ratio 3
7,695 9,284
8,597- 9,886
8.782 10,210'
9,052 10,686.
8,993. 10,637
1.07
1.16
1.12,
1.17
1.18
12,268
13.046,
13,529'
14,091
14,095
19,460'
21,050.
21,0311
21,488;
20,926
1.38
1.64
1.52
1.53
1.51
10,513!
10,475'
10,2571
11,491-
11,678
13,260'
12.730.
12,739!
13,879
1.13
1.19
1.23
1.24
1.15
15,321 22,769!
15,811
16,667
16,696 24,113!
17,951 25,305
1.43
1.47
1.44
1.43
1.40
1.76
1.74
1.72|
1.69,
1.64
11,656
11.988
12.674!
13,38214,5271
14,12o'
14,488
14.93616.048,
16,977
1.22
1.20
1.16'
1.15
1.13;
18,294
18,249
19,630
20,556'
21,823;
26,813
26,221
27,941
29,38631,094;
1.45
1.43
1.38
1.39
1.40
I.60'
1.62
1.76"
1.74;
1.76'
1 oJ
1.90
15,595!
16,979,
17,099
18,329,
19,726
18.274.
20,69ll
21,557i
22,528
24,363
1.14|
1.14,
1.21
1.20
1.19j
23,677!
25.330,
26,151'
28,490,
29,824
34,405
38.073
38,952j
41,973
45,3761
1.39
1.44
1.46
1.43
1.46
1.23 3I.294' 46,555L
1.23| 34,0711 50,474-
1.47
1.44
}965
}966
1967
J68
196 9
80.276 S 120,900 1
i 8 7 , 1 7 8 136,729'
j 89,698 145.115,
1 97,100.155.336'
j 103,104'166,695j
197 0
197 1
1104,407 174,868!
m t 5 0 8 181,055.
1.64, 52,560 101,709J
1.60. 55,158 101,665,
1970: Jan.
Feb.
. Mar
Apr
May
June
103.945] 166.807i
104,469,168.018
; 103.949! 168,616
! 103.104,169.8111
104.596*169.7S5 1
j 104,926 170,796.
1.60:
1.61;
1.62:
1.65'
1.62,
1.63"
53.319
53.229'
52.791j
52.087;
52.714j
52,9771
97.244
97,954
98.51l!
99,314,
99.330
99.6Ilj
1.82.'
1.84.
1.871
1.91i
I.881
1.88
20,292!
20,5711
20.463,
20,012!
20,684,
20,656
24,484
24.853
24,842j
24,942]
24,990;
25,142
1.21
1.21
1.21
1.25;
1.21
1.22
30,334
30.669
30,695
31,005.
31,198!
31,293
45,079
45,211
45,263
45,555
451465
46,043
1.49
1.47
1.47
1.47
1.46
1.47
1105.336
J105.538
1105.449
1103.970
102! 743
{104,844
172.092;
172.805
173,357.
173.593
174.'350
174,868;
1.63
1.64
1.64
1.67
1.70
1.67,
53.096100.135!
53.130 100.452
52.784 100.695;
51,595 101,287.
50.820 1C1.903,
52,365 101,709
1.89
1.89,
1.9l!
1.96;
2.01
1.94
20.639 1
20,698
20.714'
20,754!
20,641 j
20,718
25,410'
25,423,
25,689
26,003
26.334
26,604
1.23
1.23
1.24!
1.25;
1.28
I.28|
31,601
31,710
31,951
31,621
31.282
31.7611
46.547
46,930.
46,9731
46,303.
46.113'
46,555
1.47
1.48
1.47
1.46
1.47
1.47
W W : Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
JuneV.III
i 106.370 175.435'
1 0 7 . 7 2 7 175.993
'109.284 176.816
'110.063 177.4981111,074 178,268
112', 295.178! 481
21.338'
21,334.
21,676'
21.897,
22,449'
22,716.
26.646
26,806
26.788!
27,046,
27,140
27,333
1.25
1.26'
1.24
1.24,
1.21
1.20
32.290.
32.850,
33.274
33.578.
33,502
33,827j
46,888!
47,426!
48,246!
48.809,
49,259.
49,534
1.45
1.44
1.45
1.45
1.47
1.46
I l l 1.516! 178,773'
; 113.005 179.377.
lll2.979jl8C.083
112,779,180.464
1115.313,180.313
1115,278-181.055
52,742'101,90l!
53,543 1C1.761I
54.334il01.782 1
54.588 101.643!
55.123 101,869;
55,752.101,614,
I
I
55.207-101,315:
55,745 101,283
55,211 101.425
55.531.101,736
57.000'101.699.
57,388 101.665.
1.93
1.90!
1.871
1.86
1.85,
1.82
July
Jug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.65!
1.63
1.62
1.61
1.60
1.59
I
1.60
1.59
1.59
1.60
1.56
1.57,
1.84
1.82!
1.84,
1.83!
1.78'
1.77
22,621!
22,605!
22.549
22.28422,739
22,994,
27.866
27.795!
27,8141
27.928
28.237j
28,916
1.23'
1.23'
1.23,
1.25'
1.24,
1.26!
33,688!
34,655'
35,219;
34,964
35.574 1
34,896;
49,592
50,299!
50,844!
50,800
50,377
50,474
1.47
1.45
1.44
1.45
1.42
1.45
1.54 !
1.55
1.52
1.51
1.51
58.839 101,796 1
58.774 102,158
59.894 102.450
60.741 102.428
60.957.102.822
60.714 103,519,
1.73
1.74
1.71i
1.69
1.69;
24,351
23.533
23.884
24.170
24,096,
29.049
29.1811
29.174
29,574;
29.657,
1.19
1.24.
1.22 :
1.22:
1.23'
50,542
35,3451 50,646'
36,450 50,890
36,287! 51,213:
36.926 51,907;
3Gl411j_
1.45
1.43
1.40
1.41
1.41
. . « !
1.47I
i
20,554L 26,604
1.84 22,280. 28,916
Seasonally adjusted
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
NovV.V."
Dec
1972: Jan
118.076 181.387!
feb
-117.652 181.985
Mar
120.228 182.514
Apr >
1121.198.183.215
May p—'121,979
184,386.
June P . . .
t
Ln
i
I-
' I 34,886 '
J Monthly average for year and total for month.
.'
w i t f o . Fodr an?ulS°periods. ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
oata. ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
r » a f l a r t m f l „ t nf Pnmmprr* Bureau
4
Manufacturing data prior to 1961 not completely comparable with later data. See Department of Commerce. Bureau
01 the Census, "Series M 3 - 1 . 1 , " September 1968.
Note.~The inventory f.gures in this table do not agree with the estimates of change in
" the gross national product since these figures cover only manufacturing and trade rather than all business, ana snow
'nventories in terms of current book value without adjustment for revaluation.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
93
TABLE A-26.—Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1950-72
[Millions of dollars]
Inventories'
Durable goods industries
Total
Nondurable
goods
indus- industries
tries
Durable
Materials
and
supplies
Total
Total
FinWork
ished
in
process goods
8,845
10,493
11,313!
13,349,
11,828.
9,789
11,221
11.216
11.494!
11,527
31,078
39,306
41,136
43,948
41,612
26,480
27,740
28,736
27,280
30,219
14,071
14,715'
15,237|
13,571
15,545j
12,409
13,025
13,499!
13,708.
14,674
45.069
50,642
51,871
50.070
52,707
15,539
20,991 .
23,731.
25,878: 8,966
23.710. 7.894!
26,405 9,194
30,447 10,4171
31,728 10,608.
30,095 9,847;
31,839 10,585;
30,796
30,896
33,113
35,032
37,335
15,817
15,5441
17,1031
18,247,
19.634
14,979
15,352
16,010
16,786
17,701 j
53,814
54,939!
58,213!
60,043i
63,386;
32,360:
32,509!
34,605!
35,813,
38,436
10,286 12,780
10,242, 13,21l!
10,798 ! 14,205;
1 1 , 0 0 1 1 14,997
11,927 16,2531
41,003
44,869
46,449
50.282
53,555
22,216!
24.6331
25,212!
27.694,
29.459
18,788
20,236!
21,236.
22,588
24,096
68,221
77,965;
84,6061
90,835,
96.956!
42,227
49.818.
54,900:
59,053,
63,255
13,299! 18,152| 10,776
15,489. 21,982 12,347
1 6 , 0 2 2 s 25,2611 13,617
17,061 27,274 14,718
17.556 29,541 16,158
10,756
12,317
12,837
12,294
12,952
Total
Materials
and
supplies
15.539 .
18,315.
17,405 .
6,206 18.070 8,317
6,040 17,902 8,167
18.634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355
10,720
9.721
Nondurable goods industries
6,348' 18,664
FinWork
ished
in
process goods
2.472
2.440
7.409
7.415
2.571
2.721
2.864
2.800
2.928
7.666
8.622
8,624
8.498
8,857
7,565!
8,125,
7,749
8,143
20,195
20.143j
19.975,
20,868
8.556
8,971
8,775
8,671
9,r"
9,190
9.0561
9.6021
9,815'
10,256
21.454
22,430
23,608
24,230'
24,950)
9,113
9.464
9.841
10,003
10,185
2.935 9.353
3,193 9,773
3,304 10,463
3,410 10.817
3.519 11.246
25,994
28.147
29,706
31,782
33,701
10,488
11,200
11,378
11.736
12.167
3,823
4,226
4.525
4,921
5,257
52,560 28.0611 24,499 101,709 66,8261 18,194! 30.926, 17.706 34.883 12,536
55,158 29,464: 25,694.101,665: 65.874] 18,273, 30,267) 17,3341 35,791 12.860
11.683
12.721
13,803
15.125
16,277
5,042 17,305
5,161 17,770
Seasonally adjusted
53,319
53,229
52,791;
52,087'
52.714,
52.977
28,684'
28,560.
28,012.
27,844.
28,414j
28,309
24.635
24,669,
24,779
24,243
24,300
24,668.
97,244
97,954
98,511i
99.314
99,330
99.611
63.667|
64.014
64,471
64,984
64.992
65,1511
17.649!
17.773
17,770,
17.689
17.615
17,618
29.7581
29.922i
30.155,
30,481!
30.602
30.691
16.2601
16.319,
16,546
16,814.
16.775 '
16.842 ,
33,577)
33,940
34,040.
34.330
34.338
34,460.
12,007
12,183!
12.307
12.290
12.249
12.237
5.195
5.153
5,138
5,140
5,142!
5,140
16,375
16,604
16.595
16,900
16,947
17,083
53,096
53,130
52,784
51.595
50.820
52.365-
28.596>
28.628
28.318
27,172
26,623,
27.873
24,500-100,135
24.502 100,452
24,466:100,695
24,423 101,287
24,197 101,903
24,492 101,709
65,691
66,065
66,235
66.584
66,950
66,826
30,911
30.974
30.963
31.067
31.162:
30,926'
17.1211
17.233
17.300
17,452 ,
17.602
17.706!
34.444
34,387;
34.460!
34,703.
34,953'
34.883,
12,218
12.197
12,192
12.304
12.428
12,536
5,135
5,051
5,022
5.045
5.053
5.042
17,091
17.139
17.246
17,354
17,472
17.305
52.742!
53,543:
54.334!
54,588
55,123
55,752
17,659
17.858
17.972'
18.065
18,186
18,194
28.1041.
28,487>
29,160
29,127.
29,606
30,018
24,638'101,901
25.056 101,761
25,174 101.782
25,461:101,643
25.517 101,869
25,734,101,614
35,093
35,042
35,039
34,945
35.086
35.214j
12,502l
12,522 i
12.435
12.433
12.433.
12,566
5,038
5,037
5.061
5,042
5,087
5.076
17.553
17,483
17.543
17,470
17,566
17.572
55.207
55,745
55,211
55.531
57,000
57.388
29,523
29,930
29,328,,
29,621
30,348 ,
30,561'.
25,684 101.315
25,815 101.283
25,883 101,425
25,910 101,736
26,652.101,699
26| 827,101;
/|ii 665
35,139!
35,187;
35,296
35,711 1
35.822
35.791,
12.519
12,562
12.595
12.718
12.783
5.083 17,537
5,0711 17.554
5,105' 17.596
5,121 17.872
5,145 17.894
5.161. 17,770
58,774
59,894
60,741
60.957
60,714
31,615!
31,616
32,242.
33,103,
33,249
32,720,
27,224 101,796
27,158.102,158
27,652.102,450
27,638.102,428
27,708 102,82?
27.994 103,519
66,808 18,249 30,800' 17,759
66,719 18,235 30,624 17,860
66,743 18.171 30,558 18,014
18.520. 30.370 17,808
66.783 18,735 30.321 17.727
66,400 18,806- 30,010! 17.58466.176 18,999 29.832 17,346'
66.096 18,838 29.899. 17,359
66.129 18,493 30.156 17,480
66,025. 18,339. 30.157 17,529
65,877 18,261 30.247 17,369
65.874 18,273 30,267, 17,334 ;
66.187! 18,278 30,478' 17,43166.419. 18,254 30.645 17,520
66.604 18,144 30,786 17,674
66.575 18,1011 30,794 17,680
67,035 18,152; 31,103 17,7801
67,355; 17,940; 31.496; 17.919!
35.609
35,739.
35.846
35.853.
35.787 i
36.164!
12.836
12.965
12.791:
12.836;
12.7811
12.994.
5,184 17.589
17.587
V£\ 17.688
5,274 17,743
5.190 17,816
5.266 17 904
1
12,860
t Monthly average for year and total for month.
. S J f . k ; a l u e : s H i ? n a f y a d i u « e d , end of period.
4
'Series M M . l / ' SeptembeM9W.
C O m p a r a b , e w i t h , a t e f data
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
94
- See Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census,
TABLE A-27.—Manufacturer? new and unfilled orders, 1950-72
(Amounts in millions of dollars!
New orders*
Durable goods
industries
Year or month
Total
Total
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
Unfilled orders'
Nondurable
goods
industries
Total
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
43,055
69,785
75,649
61,178
48,266
36,838
65,835
72,480
58,637
45,250
6,217
3,950
3.169
2.541
3,016
3.42
60.094
67,375
53,183
48.882
54,494
56.241
63.880
50.352
45.739
50,654
3.763
3.495
2,831
3.143
3,840
3.63
3.87
3.35
2.60
2.85
43,401
45,241
44,485
47,958
55.623
64,920
78,404
84,568
84,446
85,479
2,732
3,154
2,822
2,982
2.883
2.58
2.52
2.46
2.40
2.49
3.226
3,065
3.088
2.935
2,943
72,912
71,723
2,961
3,103
2.62
2.92
2.74
2.70
2.58
2.35
2.12
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958...
1959...
20,110
23.907
23,203
23.533
22.313
27.423
28.383
27,514
26,901
30,679
14,954
15.381
14,073
13.170
15,951
9,945
11,066
11.142
11.428
11.570
12,469
13,002
13.441
13.731
14.728
1960...
1961«_,
1962...
1963...
1964...
30.115
31.085
33,005
35.322
37,952
15.223
15.699
17,025
18.521
20,258
14,892
15.387
15,980
16,801
17,694
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
41.803
45,936
46.988
50.271
53,648
6,971
7,694
18,817
20.224
21,238
22,577
24,097
1970...
1971...
51.529
55,074
22.986
25,711
25.751
27,694
29,551
27,029
29,369
46,133
48,395
47,307
50,940
58,506
68,146
81.469
87.656
87,381
88,422
6.822
7,398
24,500
25,705
75.873
74,826
1970: J a n . .
Feb..
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
50,817
51.857
51.363
51,009
51,815
52.343
52,328
51.976
51.674
50.434
50.163
52,579
53.366
53.858
54.322
53.812
54.100
54,376
54.934
56.213
55,029
55.928
57.621
57,558
6.756
7.130
6,518
6.684
7,087
6,661
6,949
6,670
6.661
6.641
6.480
7,432
24,551
24,657
24,773
24,240
24,289
24,627
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
1971: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..
26.266
27.200
26.590
26.769
27,526
27.716
27,815
27.476
27,157
25,952
25,944
28,055
24,513
24,500
24,517
24,482
24,219
24,524
28.703
28.823
29,095
28.357
28.620
28,619
6.882
6,810
7.121
7,009
7.256
7,516
29,230
30.426
29,193
29.959
30.923
30,676
59,579
59,547
60,614
61.209
61.475
63.074
32,262
32.221
32.845
33.529
33.765
35,058
10.165
12.841
12.061
12.105
10.743
Unfilled ordersshipments ratio*
Total
Seasonally adjusted
July
Aug
Sept
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
1972: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June
2.56
2.53
2.53
2.52
2.46
2.45
3.08
3.04
3.05
3.05
2.96
2.95
0.43
.43
.43
.44
.44
.43
2.40
2.39
2.35
2.37
2.39
2.35
.42
.43
.44
.45
.46
.45
2.37
2.35
2.30
2.27
2.20
2.13
2.89
2.87
2.81
2.85
2.88
2.83
2.85
2.83
2.75
2.72
2.63
2.55
.46
.45
.45
.45
.44
.44
3,018
2.990
2.943
3,002
3,048
3,103
2.15
2.20
2.18
2.17
2.14
2.12
2.58
2.65
2.63
2.61
2.57
2.54
.45
.43
.43
.43
.44
.44
3,196
3.364
3,481
3.523
3.524
3.547
2.07
2.10
2.07
2.05
2.05
2.13
2.48
2.51
2.48
2.43
2.44
2.55
.44
.46
.46
.47
.47
.47
73 ,51 1
73.847
73,782
73,012
72,026
70,627
2.859
2.847
2,841
2.838
2,827
2,786
2.799
2,797
2.848
2,907
2,929
2,961
2,986
2,965
3,018
3.012
2,975
2,998
73,352
73,820
73.638
74,035
74,656
74,826
70,334
70.830
70.695
71,033
71,608
71,723
75,566
76.339
77.059
77,528
78.045
80.402
72,370
72,975
73,578
74,005
74,521
76,855
24,663
25,035
25,227
25,455
25,480
25,757
85,920
84,548
83,120
82,042
81,143
80,509
79,741
78,587
77,477
76.316
75,659
75,873
76.497
76.812
76.800
76.024
75,001
73,625
7,213
7,492
7,471
7,859
7,932
8.131
25.704
25.787
25.836
25.969
26.698
26.882
8,166
8.196
8.528
8.785
9,036
9,173
27.317
27,326
27,769
27,683
27,710
28.016
83,061
81,701
80.279
79,204
78,316
77,723
76,942
75,790
74,629
73.409
72,730
72,912
1
Monthly average for year and total for month,
f Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
r.
for period; excludes industries with no unfilled orders. Annual
Ratio of unfilled orders Batt _end of period to shipments
shipi
figures relate to seasonally adjusted data for December.
d
ftola,
^ a b i e , and non. 4 Data prior to 1961 net completely comparable with later data. Comparable datafornew
durable) are available for 1958, 1959, and I960 only. See Department of Commerce. Bureau oi me census, o w . w
1
M 3 - 1 . 1 / ' September 1968, for these data.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
95
PRICES
TABLE A-28.—Consumer price indexes, major groups,
1950-72
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967=100]
Services
Commodities
All
items
Year or
month
All
items
less
food
All
items
less
shelter
Commodities less food
All
commodities
Food
All
Durable
Nondura*
ble
Total
nondurable
All
services
Rent
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
72.1
77.8
79.5
80.1
80.5
71.1
75.7
77.5
79.0
79.5
73.1
79.2
80.8
81.0
81.0
78.8
85.9
87.0
86.7
85.9
74.5
82.8
84.3
83.0
82.8
81.4
87.5
88.3
88.5
87.5
88.4
9b. 1
96.4
95.7
93.3
76.2
82.0
82.4
83.1
83.5
75.4
82.5
83 4
83.2
83.2
58.7
61.8
64.5
67.3
69.5
70.4
73.2
76.2
80.3
83.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
80.2
81.4
84.3
86.6
87.3
79.7
81.1
83.8
85.7
87.3
80.6
8i.7:!
84.4
86.9
87.6
85.1
85.9
88.6
90.6
90.7
81.6
82.2
84.9
88.5
87.1
86.9
87.8
90.5
91.5
92.7
91.5
91.5
94.4
95.9
97.3
83.5
85.3
87.6
88.2
89.3
82.5
83.7
86.3
88.6
88.2
70.9
72.7
75.6
78.5
80.8
84.3
85.9
87.5
89.1
90.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
88.7
89.6
90.6
91.7
92.9
88.8
89.7
90.8
92.0
93.2
88.9
89.9
90.9
92.1
93.2
91.5
92.0
92.8
93.6
94.6
88.0
89.1
89.9
91.2
92.4
93.1
93.4
94.1
94.8
95.6
96.7
96.6
97.6
97.9
98.8
90.7 .
91.2 i
91.8 |
92.7
93.5
89.4
90.2
90.9
92.0
93.0
83.5
85.2
86.8
88.5
90.2
91.7
92.9
94.0
95.0
95.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
94.5
97.2
100.0
104.2
109.8
94.5
96.7
100.0
104.4
110.1
94.6
97.4
100.0
104.1
109.0
95.7
98.2
100.0
103.7
108.4
94.4
99.1
100.0
96.2
97.5
100.0
103.7
98.4
98.5
94.8
97.0
94.6
98.1
108.1
103.1
107.0
104.1
108.8
100.0
103.9
108.9
92.2
95.8
100.0
105.2
112.5
96.9
98.2
100.0
102.4
105.7
1970
1971
116.3
121.3
116.7
122.1
114.4
119.3
113.5
117.4
112.5
116.8
111.8
116.5
113.1
117.0
114.0
117.7
121.6
128.4
110.1
1970: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May.
June
113.3
113.9
114.5
115.2
115.7
116.3
113.3
113.9
114.6
115.4
116.0
116.5
112.0
112.4
112.8
113.5
114.0
114.4
111.2
111.7
112.0
U2.6
113.1
113.5
113.5
114.1
114.2
114.6
114.9
115.2
110.0
110.3
110.6
111.4
112.0
112.5
109.0
109.0
109.4
111.1
111.9
110.7
111.2
111.5
112.3
112.7
112.9
112.1
112.6
112.9
113.4
113.9
114.0
117.1
118.0
119.3
120.1
120.7
121.4
107.9
108.4
108.8
109.1
109.4
109.8
July
Aug..
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
116.7
116.9
117.5
118.1
118.5
119.1
117.0
117.2
118.0
118.9
119.6
120.2
114.8
114.9
115.4
116.0
116.3
116.8
113.8
113.8
114.2
114.8
115.1
115.6
115.8
115.9
115.7
115.5
114.9
115.3
112.5
112.6
113.4
114.5
115.1
115.5
112.1
112.2
112.5
113.9
114.7
115.2
114.4
113.0
114.5
113.0
114.1 ; 114.9
115.2
114.9
115.4
115.3
115.6
115.7
122.0
122.7
123.5
124.1
124.9
125.6
110.1
119.2
119.4
119.8
120.2
120.8
121.5
120.3
120.4
120.6
120.9
121.6
122.2
117.0
117.4
118.0
118.6
119.2
119.8
115.4
115.5
116.1
116.6
117.2
117.9
115.5
115.9
117.0
117.8
118.2
115.2 115.2
115.2 j 115.0
115.5 ! 115.2
115.8 115.7
116.6 116.6
1 1 7 . 1 117.4
115.4
115.3
115.7
115.4
115.7 ; 116.4
116.0 , 116.9
117.4
116.6
116.9
118.1
126.3
126.6
126.6
126.8
127.5
128.2
112.9
113.6
113.9
114.4
114.7
115.2
121.8
122.1
122.2
122.4
122.6
123.1
122.4
122.7
123.1
123.5
123.7
123.9
120.0
120.2
120.2
120.3
120.4
120.9
118.1
118.2
118.1
118.4
118.5
118.9
119.8
120.0
119.1
118.9
119.0
120.3
117.0
117.1
117.4
118.0
116.7
117.2
118.2
118.7
118.7
118.8
118.3
118.6
118.7
118.8
118.9
119.5
128.8
129.4
129.8
130.0
130.4
130.8
115.4
115.8
118.1
118.1
117.5
116.9
116.4
117.1
117.4
117.2
123.2
123.8
124.0
124.3
124.7
125.0
124.0
124.2
124.5
124.9
125.4
125.7
120.9
121.5
121.8
122.1
122.4
122.7
118.7
119.4
119.7
119.9
120.3
120.7
120.3
122.2
122.4
122.4
122.3
123.0
117.7
117.8
118.2
118.5
119.2
119.4
117.3
117.1
117.3
117.7
118.4
119.2
118.4
118.9
119.1
119.7
119.5
118.1
119.2
120.3
120.6
120.7
121.0
121.2
131.5
131.8
132.0
132.4
132.7
133.1
1971: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov...
Dec
1972: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
i
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
96
100.0 100.0
110.1
115.2
110.5
110.9
111.4
111.8
112.6
116.1
116.4
116.6
116.9
117.1
117.5
117.7
118.1
118.3
118.8
All
services
less
rent
TABLE A-29.—Percent changes in consumer price indexes, major groups, 1950-72
[Percent change from preceding period >]
All items
Year or month
Unadjusted
Food
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Commodities less food
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Services >
Unadjusted
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
5.8
5.9
.9
.6
-.5
9.6
7.4
-1.1
-1.3
-1.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.4
2.9
3.0
1.8
1.5
-.9
3.1
2.8
2.2
-.8
2.2
.8
1.5
4.5
2.7
3.7
1.5
.7
1.2
1.6
1.2
3.1
-.9
1.5
1.9
1.4
-.3
.6
.7
1.2
.4
2.7
1.9
1.7
2.3
1.8
1.9
3.4
3.0
4.7
6.1
3.4
3.9
1.2
4.3
7.2
.7
1.9
3.1
3.7
4.5
2.6
4.9
4.0
6.1
7.4
2.2
4.3
4.8
2.3
8.2
4.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
""
"
1965
1966.
1967
1968.
1969.
'
1970
197L.
:::*:
5.5
3.4
1970: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
oct...„::_:
Nov
Dec
1971: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1972: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
.4
.5
.5
.6
.4
.5
0.5
.6
.4
.5
.4
.4
.6
.5
.1
.4
.3
.3
0.5
.7
.0
.3
.3
-.1
-.2
.3
.3
.7
.5
.4
0.2
.4
.2
.6
.4
.4
.9
.8
1.1
.7
.5
.6
.3
.2
.5
.5
.3
.5
.3
.3
.6
.5
.4
.4
.5
.1
-.2
-.2
-.5
.3
.1
.1
.4
.0
.1
—.2
.0
.1
.7
1.0
.5
.3
.2
.3
.5
.4
.4
.7
.5
.6
.7
.5
.6
.6
.1
.2
.3
.3
.5
.6
.3
.2
.2
.3
.5
.4
.2
.3
.9
.7
.3
.8
.1
.5
.9
.6
.3
.4
-.3
.0
.3
.3
.7
.4
.1
.1
.2
.2
.6
.3
.2
.2
.1
.2
.2
.4
.3
.3
.1
.2
.2
.3
.5
.2
-.8
-.2
.1
1.1
.2
.3
—.3
-.1
.8
.6
-.1
.1
.3
.5
.1
.0
.2
.3
.0
.3
.6
.0
.2
.3
.1
.0
1.6
.2
.0
-.1
.6
-.1
1.8
.0
-.1
-.1
.2
-.3
.1
.3
.3
le
:2
.2
3
*2
.1
.5
.2
.2
.3
.2
;0
lo
"t2
\2
.5
.0
.6
;12_02
[5
.5
.5
.3
.2
.3
.3
.5
.2
.2
.3
.2
.3
i
tetctMSMSSSisW
indexes since time prices k m little seasonal — a t
Note.—Tlie seasonally adjusted chanjes lor the all ite.ns index are based an seasonal adjustment factors and seasonally
adjusted indexes carried to two decimal places.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
97
TABLE A-30.—Wholesale price indexes, major groups,
1950-72
[1967-100]
Industrial commodities
Farm products and processed foods and feeds
Year or
month
All
commodities
Consumer finished goods
Total
Farm
products
Processed
foods
and
feeds
All
industrials i
Crude
materials 2
Intermediate
materials »
78.0
Producers
finished
goods
Total
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
81.8
91.1
88.6
87.4
87.6
93.9
106.9
102.7
96.0
95.7
106.7
124.2
117.2
106.2
104.7
83.4
92.7
91.6
87.4
88.9
84.1
84.8
85.0
93.6
102.9
93.1
92.4
88.0
77.7
81.0
84.3
85.3
85.7
64.9
71.2
72.4
73.5
74.5
83.9
91.8
90.7
89.2
89.1
84.7
95.2
94.3
89.4
88.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
87.8
90.7
93.3
94.6
94.8
91.2
90.6
93.7
98.1
93.5
98.2
96.9
99.5
103.9
97.5
85.0
84.9
87.4
91.8
89.4
86.9
90.8
93.3
93.6
95.3
96.6
102.3
100.9
96.9
102.3
88.3
92.6
95.0
94.8
96.4
76.7
82.4
87.6
89.7
91.5
88.5
89.8
92.4
94.4
93.6
86.5
86.3
89.3
94.5
90.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
94.9
94.5
94.8
94.5
94.7
93.7
93.7
94.7
93.8
93.2
97.2
96.3
98.0
96.0
94.6
89.5
91.0
91.9
92.5
92.3
95.3
94.8
94.8
94.7
95.2
98.3
97.2
95.6
94.3
97.1
96.8
95.5
95.3
95.0
95.6
91.6
91.8
92.2
92.4
93.3
94.5
94.3
94.6
94.1
94.3
92.1
91.7
92.5
91.4
91.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
96.6
99.8
100.0
102.5
106.5
97.1
103.5
100.0
102.4
107.9
98.7
105.9
100.0
102.5
109.1
95.5
101.2
100.0
102.2
107.3
96.4
98.5
100.0
102.5
106.0
100.9
104.5
100.0
102.0
110.6
96.9
98.9
100.0
94.4
96.8
100.0
103.5
106.9
95.4
96.1
101.6
99.4
100.0
100.0
102.7 11 103.7
110.0
106.5
1970
1971
110.4
113.9
111.6
113.8
111.0
112.9
112.0
114.3
110.0
114.0
118.8
122.7
110.0
114.3
111.9
116.6
109.9 ii
112.7
113.4
115.2
1970:Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..
109.3
109.7
109.9
109.9
110.1
110.3
112.4
112.8
112.9
111.8
111.2
111.7
112.8
114.0
114.6
111.6
111.3
111.6
112.0
112.1
111.8
111.8
Ul.l
111.7
108.3
108.7
108.9
109.3
109.7
109.8
116.0
118.5
118.5
120.3
120.0
119.5
108.3
108.7
109.0
109.4
109.9
110.1
110.1
110.3
110.7
110.8
111.1
111.3
109.6
109.6
109.7
109.2
109.3
109.6
115.4
115.0
115.1
113.3
112.9
113.4
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...
110.9
110.5
111.0
111.0
110.9
111.0
113.4
111.2
112.6
110.3
109.9
109.3
113.4
108.5
112.1
107.8
107.0
107.1
113.3
112.9
113.0
111.8
111.7
110.7
110.0
110.2
110.4
111.3
111.3
111.7
UP;O
117.2
118.7
120.6
118.2
119.8
110.3
110.5
110.7
111.0
111.0
111.0
111.6
111.9
112.3
113.8
114.2
115.1
110.3
109.5
110.4
110.1
110.5
110.5
115.0
112.6
114.2
111.3
112.0
1971:Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..
111.8
112.8
113.0
113.3
113.8
114.3
110.7
113.6
113.4
113.3
114.3
115.4
108.9
113.9
113.0 :
113.0
114.0
116.0
111.8
113.3
113.7
113.5
114.5
114.9
112.2
112.5
112.8
113.3
113.7
113.9
121.4
121.8
121.4
124.1
123.5
122.8
111.5
112.0
112.7
113.3
113.8
114.1
115.6
115.9
116.0
116.1
116.3
116.5
111.3
112.0
112.1
112.0
112.7
113.1
112.3
113.9
114.6
114.5
115.6
116.4
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...
114.6
114.9
114.5
114.4
114.5
115.4
115.0
114.6
113.0
113.0
113.6
115.9
113.4
113.2
110.5
111.3
112.2
115.8
116.0
115.4
114.6
114.1
114.4
115.9
114.5
115.1
115.0
115.0
114.9
115.3
122.7
122.3
123.0
122.9
123.4
114.9
115.9
115.9
115.7
115.6
115.8
116.8
117.1
116.9
117.1
117.0
117.8
113.0
113.3
112.7
112.9
113.1
114.2
115.6
116.1
114.9
115.0
115.7
117.7
1972:Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..
116.3
117.3
117.4
117.5
118.2
118.8
117.4 | 117.8
119.6 1 120.7
119.1 ! 1 1 9 . 7
118.3
119.1
120.0
122.2
121.3
124.0 i
117.2
118.8
118.6
117.7
118.6
119.6
115.9
116.5
116.8
117.3
117.6
117.9
125.6
127.0
129.1
129.3
129.9
129.8
116.4
117.2
117.6
118.2
118.6
119.0
118.4
118.8
119.0
119.3
119.4
119.6
114.7
115.6
115.2
114.8
115.5
116.1
118.7
120.6
119.4
118.0
119.5
120.7
July..
119.7
124.0
121.5
118.1
130.2
119.2
119.7
117.3
123.3
128.0 j
86.1
122.6
102.6
106.2
111.0
d 0
J
"
correspond exactly to coverage of this index.
I F I H M H L ?r ?. d ® , 0 J d 5 t u K s ? n t J 'eedstuHs. plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco.
_
.„
nrnHnMB f ! ! i i i i T ^
materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain
products for further processing.
Source: Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
98
TABLE A-31.—Percent changes in wholesale price indexes, major groups, 1950-72
(Percent change from preceding period '1
All
commodities
Year
or
month
Industrial
commodities
Farm products
Consumer
and processed finished goods,
foods and feeds
total
Consumer
goods excluding
foods
Consumer
foods
SeaUnad- sonally
adjusted
justed
SeaSeaSeaSeaSeaUnad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally
justed
adad- justed
justed
adadjusted
justed
adjusted
justed
justed
justed
justed
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
14.7
1.2
-3.4
.5
-.6
14.0
.4
-1.4
1.4
.2
17.0
3.5
-8.2
-2.3
-2.6
10.2
2.7
-3.1
-.1
-.6
13.3
5.3
-5.9
-2.2
-1.9
8.2
.9
-1.1
1.6
.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1.6
4.5
2.0
.5
-.3
4.3
4.2
1.1
.9
1.2
-6.4
6.0
4.2
-.2
-4.4
-.1
3.1
3.0
.2
-.7
-2.9
3.6
5.3
.4
-3.7
1.7
2.5
1.7
.2
.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
.5
-.2
.0
-.1
.4
-.6
-.1
-.2
.5
.6
3.9
-.6
.6
-2.1
.0
2.1
-.8
.1
-.4
.2
5.2
-1.8
.5
-1.3
.4
.4
-.3
-.1
.1
.1
1965
1966
1967..
1968
1969
3.4
1.7
1.0
2.8
4.8
1.4
2.2
1.9
2.7
3.9
9.5
.2
-1.8
3.5
7.5
4.0
1.6
1.2
3.1
4.9
9.1
1.4
-.4
4.8
8.2
.9
1.7
2.1
2.0
2.9
1970
1971
2.2
4.0
3.6
3.2
-1.4
6.0
1.4
3.3
-2.5
6.0
4.0
1.7
.6
.4
.2
.0
.2
.2
0.4
.1
.2
.2
.0
.1
.5
.4
.2
.4
.4
.1
.2
.4
.4
.2
1.4
.4
.1
-1.0
-.5
.4
0.9
-1.1
.3
-.5
-1.3
-.2
.6
.0
.1
-.5
.1
.3
0.4
-.1
.3
-.2
-.2
.0
1.3
-.3
.1
-1.6
-.4
.4
0.9
-.3
.3
-.8
-1.1
-.3
.2
.2
.2
.1
.4
.2
0.3
.2
.3
.2
.4
.1
.5
-.4
.5
.0
-.1
.1
.5
.1
.5
.2
-.1
-.1
.2
.2
.2
.8
.0
.4
.3
.2
.2
.6
.2
.3
1.5
-1.9
1.3
-2.0
-.4
-.5
1.2
-.4
1.3
-.9
-.5
-1.1
.6
-.7
.8
-.3
.4
.0
.5
.0
.5
.1
.3
.1
1.4
-2.1
1.4
-2.5
.6
-.9
.6
-.4
.6
-.6
.0
-1.3
.2
.2
.3
1.3
.2
.5
.2
.3
.5
.8
.3
.5
.7
.9
.2
.3
.4
.4
.5
.6
.2
.5
.3
.4
.4
.3
.3
.4
.4
.2
.3
.1
.3
.4
.5
.3
1.3
2.6
-.2
-.1
.9
1.0
.8
1.9
-.1
.5
.2
.4
.7
.6
.1
-.1
.6
.4
.5
.5
.2
.3
.4
.1
1.2
1.4
.6
-.1
1.0
.7
.8
1.3
.6
.8
.2
.2
.5
.1
-.2
-.1
.4
.1
.5
.1
-.1
.0
.4
.0
.3
.3
-.3
-.1
.1
.8
.2
.7
-.3
.1
.1
.6
.5
.5
-.1
.0
-.1
.3
.6
.5
-.1
-.2
.1
.2
-.3
-.3
-1.4
.0
.5
2.0
-.7
1.2
-1.2
1.1
.3
1.4
-.1
.3
-.5
.2
.2
1.0
-.4
1.1
-.8
.4
.1
.9
-.7
.4
-1.0
.1
.6
1.7
-1.5
2.0
-1.8
2.1
-.2
1.5
.4
.1
-.2
.3
.0
.4
.4
.2
.0
-.2
.1
.4
1972: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
.8
.9
.1
.1
.6
.5
.5
.5
.1
.3
.5
.5
.5
.5
.3
.4
.3
.3
.4
.4
.3
.4
.4
.4
1.3
1.9
-.4
-.7
1.4
1.1
.9
1.2
-.3
-.1
.8
.5
.4
.8
-.3
-.3
.6
.5
.3
.7
-.3
.0
.3
.3
.8
1.6
-1.0
-1.2
1.3
1.0
.4
1.5
-1.0
-.3
.5
.5
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.3
.3
.2
.3
.3
.2
.2
July
.8
.7
.2
.2
2.2
1.8
1.0
.8
2.2
1.3
.3
.3
1970:Jan
Feb
Mar . . . .
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
o'ef!:::::
Nov
Dec
1971: Jan
Feb
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July..
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec.
.
1
1
Annual changes are from December to December.
Note.—The seasonally adjotfed c h , n g „ for all ~ n , m o d i t i « . n d W u ^ . l commodities ar. based on sea»nal adjustmant factors and seasonally adjusted indeses earned to two decimal places.
Sourea: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
99
MONEY STOCK, INTEREST RATES, AND DEBT
TABLE A-32.—Money stock measures, 1950-72
{Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)
Components and related items
Overall measures
M,
(Mi plus
time
Mt
deposits
(Currency
at complus
mercial
demand
banks
deposits)
other than
large
CD's)
Year and
month
1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:
Dec..
Dec..
Dec...
Dec..
Dec...
1955:
1956:
1957:
1958:
1959:
Dec...
Dec...
Dec...
Dec...
Dec...
1960: D e c . . .
1961: D e c . . .
1962: D e c . . .
1963: D e c . . .
1964:Dec
1965:
1966:
1967:
1968:
1969:
:
1
i1
Dec...
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1970: Dec
1971: Dec
...j|
1970:Jan
Feb
Mar...
Apr...
May
June ..
...
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1971:Jan
Feb...
Mar
Apr
May
June
...
July
Aug
Sept.
Oct
Nov
Dec
1972:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May >_.
June*.
...j
Mi
( M i plus
deposits
at nonbank
thrift
institutions)
Deposits at commercial banks
Currency 1
Time and savings 3
Demand 2
Totalis'other
i
U.S.
Government
demand
deposits
(unadjusted) 4
Deposits
at nonbank
thrift
institutions*
I
116.2
122.7
127.4
128.8
132.3
25.0
26.1
27.3
27.7
27.4
91.2
96.5
100.1
101.1
104.9
36.7
38.2
41.1
44.5
48.3
2.4
2.7
4.9
3.8
5.0
135.2
136.9
135.9
141.1
142.6
27.8
28.2
28.3
28.6
28.9
107.4
108.7
107.6
112.6
113.7
50.0
51.9
57.4
65.4
67.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.9
4.9
141.7
146.0
148.1
153.6
160.5
422.9
112.8
116.5
117.6
121.1
126.3
72.9
82.7
97.8 I
273.8
28.9
29.6
30.6
32.5
34.2
126.6
13.3
113.3
4.7
4.9
5.6
5.1
5.5
168.0
171.7
183.1
197.4
203.7
298.1
314.0
345.7
378.0
386.8
459.4
481.3
528.8
572.6
588.3
36.3
38.3
40.4
43.4
46.0
131.7
133.4
142.7
154.0
157.7
146.8
158.1
183.4
204.2
194.1
16.7
15.9
20.8
23.6
214.8
228.2
418.2
464.7
633.9
718.1
49.0
52.5
165.8
175.7
228.9
269.9
25.5
33.4
130.1
142.2
162.6
180.6
183.2
203.4
236.4
205.5
204.7
206.7
208.3
209.0
209.4
388.5
387.4
390.4
393.9
396.2
398.1
589.8
588.7
592.2
596.8
600.1
603.0
46.2
46.4
46.7
47.1
47.6
47.7
159.3
158.3
160.0
161.2
161.4
161.7
193.4
193.4
195.2
198.7
200.6
202.3
10.4
10.7
11.5
13.1
13.4
13.6
183.0
182.7
183.7
185.6
187.2
188.7
201.3
201.3
201.8
202.9
203.9
204.9
210.3
211.6
212.8
213.1
213.6
214.8
401.7
405.6
409.2
412.0
414.3
418.2
608.4
613.9
619.1
623.9
627.9
633.9
48.0
48.1
48.3
48.5
48.7
49.0
162.4
163.5
164.5
164.6
164.9
165.8
208.4
213.2
217.7
221.5
224.2
228.9
17.0
19.3
21.3
22.6
23.6
25.5
191.4
193.9
196.4
198.9
200.6
203.4
206.6
208.4
209.9
211.8
213.6
215.8
215.3
217.7
219.7
221.2
223.8
225.5
423.1
430.4
437.1
441.5
446.6
450.6
642.2
653.4
663.9
672.5
681.0
687.8
49.3
49.7
50.0
50.5
50.8
51.1
166.0
168.0
169.7
170.7
173.0
174.5
227.4
228.0
227.6
227.7
227.7
228.2
234.4
240.2
245.4
248.1
251.3
254.4
26.6
27.5
28.1
27.8
28.5
29.4
207.8
212.7
217.4
220.3
222.8
225.0
453.4
454.5
455.6
458.3
460.8
464.7
693.8
697.6
701.2
706.5
711.6
718.1
51.6
51.7
51.9
52.2
52.2
52.5
175.8
176.3
175.7
175.5
175.5
175.7
30.4
30.8
31.6
32.7
32.2
33.4
225.9
226.5
228.0
230.6
233.1
236.4
228.8
231.2
233.5
235.0
235.5
236.6
256.4 !
257.3
259.6
263.3
265.3 !
269.9 1
469.9
475.5
480.1
483.0
486.1
490.4
727.3
737.4
745.9
752.8
758.9
765.9
52.8
53.2
53.7
54.0
54.4
-.
54.7 i
176.0
178.0
179.9
180.9
274.4
278.1
279.9
282.8
287.0
290.9
33.2
33.8
33.4
34.7
36.3
37.1
241.2
244.3
246.5
248.1
250.7
253.8
219.2
223.0
226.8
231.0
234.4
237.2
240.4
243.1
245.6
248.3
250.8
253.4
257.4
261.8
265.8
269.8
272.8
275.5
181.1
181.9
112.2 !
11.0
!
.
j
•
1
149.2
161.3
167.4
183.1
194.6
201.5
4.6
3.4
5.0
5.0
5.6
215.8
253.4
7.3
6.7
4.8
l\
5.3
6.4
6.5
.
I
j
!
i
i
•
6.8
7.1
6
?
6.2
5.7
7.3
6.8
8.4
5.5
5.5
7.8
5.3
6.8
6.8
7.5
5.3
3.9
6.7
7.2
7.7
7.6
10.4
6.7
U r y
1
' t h 5 le6fT*] R « e r v e System, and the vaults of all co.nnercial banks.
m c
_ arn,
e
r
t h a n l h o s e d u e
nen 1 less cash
° itemsi in
1
domestic co.imercial banks and the " - S . Govern'
ment,
penit,
less
cash
items
in
process
of
collection
and
Federal
Reserve
float,
plus
foreign
de.nand
balances
at
Federal
Reserve
Banks.
— • ••
?n S S ^ ^
mercS! banks.
cert,ficates of
'•D^posi^
than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government.
deposit issued in denominations of $100,000 or more by large weekly reporting comde
*>osit$
01 m u t u a !
savings banks and savings and loan shares.
and a r e l x S S i d ' f r S m
for payment of personal loans were reclassified for r e s e r v e purposes
merctal banksfSl i S ^ S l ^ P ^ S V 9 1 ^ ? b y m e * b e r b a n k s - T h e estimated amount of such deposits at all commercial Banks K M billion) is excluded from time and savings deposes thereafter.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
100
TABLE A-33.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1950-72
(Percent per annuml
U.S. Government securities
Year or
month
1950.,
1951.,
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963...
1964..
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1970:Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
1971:Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Jay-."
June..
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec.
1972:Jan..
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
July..
3-month
Treas9-12
3-5
ury
month
year
bills i issues * issues'
1.218
1.552
1.766
1.931
.953
1.753
2.658
3.267
1.839
3.405
2.928
2.378
2.778
3.157
3.549
3.954
4.881
4.321
5.339
6.677
6.458
4.348
7.914
7.164
6.710
6.480
7.035
6.742
6.468
6.412
6.244
5.927
5.288
4.860
4.494
3.773
3.323
3.780
4.139
4.699
5.405
5.078
4.668
4.489
4.191
4.023
3.403
3.180
3.723
3.723
3.648
3.874
4.059
1.26
1.73
1.81
2.07
.92
1.89
2.83
3.53
2.09
4.11
3.55
2.91
3.02
3.28
3.76
4.09
5.17
4.84
5.62
7.06
6.90
4.75
8.22
7.
6.88
6.96
7.::
7.50
7.00
6.92
6.68
6.34
5.52
4.94
4.29
3.80
3.66
4.21
4.93
5.57
5.89
5.67
5.31
4.74
4.50
4.38
3.99
4.07
4.54
4.84
4.58
4.87
4.89
1.
1.93
2.13
2.56
1.82
2.50
3.12
3.62
2.90
4.33
3.99
3.60
3.57
3.72
4.
4.22
5.16
5.07
5.59
6.85
7.37
5.77
8.14
7.80
7.20
7.49
7.97
7.86
7.58
7.56
7.24
7.06
6.37
5.86
5.72
5.31
4.74
5.42
6.02
6.36
6.77
6.39
5.96
5.68
5.50
5.42
5.33
5.51
5.74
6.01
5.69
5.77
5.86
Taxable
bonds*
2.32
2.57
2.68
2.94
2.55
2.84
3.08
3.47
3.43
4.08
4.02
3.90
3.95
4.00
4.15
4.21
4.65
4.85
5.26
6.12
6.58
5.74
6.86
6.44
6.39
6.53
6.94
6.99
6.57
6.75
6.63
6.59
6.24
5.97
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.75
5.96
5.94
5.91
5.78
5.56
5.46
5.48
5.62
5.62
5.67
5.66
5.74
5.69
5.59
5.59
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
Aaa
Baa
2.62!
3.24I
2.86>
3.41
2.96
3.52!
3.20
3.74 I
2.90
3.51
3.06
3.53
3.36
3.88
3.89
4.71
3.79
4.73
4.38
5.05
4.41
5.19
4.35
5.08
4.33
5.02
4.26
4.86
4.40
4.83
4.49
4.87
5.13
5.67
5.51
6.23
6.18
6.94
7.81
7.03
8.04
9.11
8.56
7.39
7.91
8.86
8.78
7.93
7.84
8.63
8.70
7.83
8.11
8.98
9.25
8.48
8.44
9.40
9.44
8.13
9.39
8.09
9.33
8.03
9.38
8.05
9.12
7.64
8.74
7.36
8.39
7.08
8.46
7.21
8.45
7.25
8.62
7.53
8.75
7.64
8.76
7.64
8.76
7.59
7.44
8.59
7.39
8.48
7.26
8.38
8.38
7.25
7.19
8.23
7.27
8.23
7.24
8.24
8.24
7.30
8.23
7.30
7.23,
8.20
7.21 1 8.23
Average
High- rate on
Prime
grade
shortcommunicterm
meripal
bank
cial
bonds
loans
(Stand- to busi- papgr.
ard & ness—
Poor's) selected months
cities
1.98
2.00
2.19
2.72
2.37
2.53
2.93
3.60
3.56
3.95
3.73
3.46
3.18
3.23
3.22
3.27
3.82
3.98
4.51
5.81
6.51
5.70
6.80
6.57
6.14
6.55
7.02
7.06
6.69
6.33
6.45
6.55
6.20
5.71
5.70
5.55
5.44
5.65
6.14
6.22 .
6.31
5.95
5.52 .
5.24
5.30
5.36
5.25
5.33
5.30 ..
5.45
5.26
5.37 .
5.39 .
2.69
3.11
3.49
3.69
3.61
3.70
4.20
4.62
4.34
•5.00
5.16
4.97
5.00
5.01
4.99
5.06
6.00
>6.00
6.68
8.21
8.48
6.32
8.86
8.49
8.50
8.07
<6.59
6.01
6.51
6."i8
5.52
5.59
1.45
2.16
2.33
2.52
1.58
2.18
3.31
3.81
2.46
3.97
3.85
2.97
3.26
3.55
3.97
4.38
5.55
5.10
5.90
7.83
7.72
5.11
8.78
8.55
8.33
8.06
8.23
8.21
8.29
7.90
7.32
6.85
6.30
5.73
5.11
4.47
4.19
4.57
5.10
5.45
5.75
5.73
5.75
5.54
4.92
4.74
4.08
3.93
4.17
4.58
4.51
4.64
4.85
FedFHA
eral
new
Reserv »
*
home
Bank
mortdisgage
count
yields'
rate
1.59
1.75
1.75
1.99
1.60
1.89
2.77
3.12
2.15
3.36
3.53
3.00
3.00
3.23
3.55
4.04
4.50
4.19
5.17
5.87
5.95
4.88
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
5.85
5.52
5.23
4.91
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.88
5.00
5.00
5.00
4.90
4.69
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.50
4.17
4.21
4.29
4.61
4.62
4.64
4.79
5.42
5.49
5.71
6.18
5.80
5.61
5.47
5.45
5.46
6.29
6.55
7.13
8.19
9.05
7.78
8.62
9.29
9.20
9.10
9.11
9.16
9.11
9.07
9.01
8.97
8.90
8.40
7.32
7.37
7.75
7.89
7.97
7.92
7.84
7.75
7.62
7.59
7.49
7.46
7.45
7.50
7.53
7.54
• Rate on new issues within period.
* Certificates of indebtedness and selected note and bond issues.
• Selected note and bond issues.
t
,
.
. „
• Series includes bonds which are neither due nor callable before a given number of years as follows: April 1953 to date,
10 years; April 1952-March 1953,12 years; January 1950-March 1952,15 years.
. .
* Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate (7 percent beginning February 18,1971).
Through July 1961, computed on 25-year mortgages paid in 12years and thereafter, 30-year mortgages prepaid in 15 years.
1
Series revised. Not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Note.—Yields and rates computed for New York City except for short-term bank foans.
„ Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
101
TABLE A-34.—Net public and private debt,
1950-7ll
[Billions of dollars)
Private
Public
Individual and noncorporate
End of year
Total
Federal
Government 3
Federal
financial
agencies'
State
and
local
governments
Nonfarm
Total
Corporate
Total
Total
Mortgage
Commercial
and
financial*
Farm*
Consumer
1950
1951
1952.
1953
1954
486.2
519.2
550.2
581.6
605.9
217.4
216.9
221.5
226.8
229.1
0.7
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
21.7
24.2
27.0
30.7
35.5
246.4
276.8
300.4
322.7
340.0
142.1
162.5
171.0
179.5
182.8
104.3
114.3
129.4
143.2
157.2
12.3
13.7
15.2
16.8
17.5
92.0
100.6
114.2
126.4
139.7
54.8
61.7
68.9
76.7
86.4
15.8
16.2
17.8
18.4
20.8
21.5
22.7
27.5
31.4
32.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
665.8
698.4
728.3
769.6
833.0
229.6
224.3
223.0
231.0
241.4
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.5
3.7
41.1
44.5
48.6
53.7
59.6
392.2
427.2
454.3
482.4
528.3
212.1
231.7
246.7
259.5
283.3
180.1
195.5
207.6
222.9
245.0
18.7
19.4
20.2
23.2
23.8
161.4
176:1
187.4
199.7
221.2
98.7
109.4
118.1
128.1
141.0
24.0
24.4
24.3
26.5
28.7
38.8
42.3
45.0
45.1
51.5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
874.2
930.3
996.0
1,070.9
1,151.6
239.8
246.7
253.6
257.5
264.0
3.5
4.0
5.3
7.2
7.5
64.9
70.5
77.0
83.9
90.4
566.1
609.1
660.1
722.3
789.7
302.8
324.3
348.2
376.4
409.6
263.3
284.8
311.9
345.8
380.1
25.1
27.5
30.2
33.2
36.0
238.2
257.3
281.7
312.6
344.1
151.3
164.5
180.3
198.6
218.9
30.8
34.8
37.6
42.3
45.0
56.1
58.0
63.8
71.7
80.3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969.
1,244.1
1,341.4
1,443.1
1,585.3
1,723.2
266.4
271.8
286.5
291.9
289.3
8.9
11.2
9.0
21.4
30.6
870.4
98.3
104.8
953.5
113.4 1,034.3
123.9 1 , 1 4 8 . 2
132.6 1 , 2 7 0 . 8
454.3
506.6
553.7
628.0
714.8
416.1
446.9
480.6
520.3
556.0
39.3
42.4
48.3
51.8
55.5
376.8 236.8
404.5 i 251.6
432.3 266.9
468.5 . 284.9
500.5 1 303.9
i
49.7
55.4
63.3
70.4
74.2
90.3
97.5
102.1
113.2
122.5
1970
1971
1,843.9
1,996.4
1
301.1
325.9
38.8
39.8
146.8 1 , 3 5 7 . 3
1 6 7 . 7 1,463.0
773.6
827.3
583.7
635.7
58.7
63.1
525.0 320.8
572.6 j 352.3
77.4
83.0
126.8
137.2
» Net public and private debt is a comprehensive aggregate of the indebtedness of borrowers after eliminating certain
types of duplicating governmental and corporate debt.
\ N e t Federal Government and agency debt is the outstanding debt held by the public, as defined in the "Budget of the
United States Government, for the Fiscal Year ending June 3 0 , 1 9 7 3 . "
»This comprises the debt of federally sponsored agencies, in which there is no longer any Federal proprietary interest.
The obligations of the Federal Land Banks are included. The debt of the Federal Home Loan Banks is included beginning
with 1951, and the debts of the Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Intermediate Credit Banks, and Banks for
Cooperatives are included beginning with 1968.
« Farm mortgages and farm production loans. Farmers' financial and consumer debt is included in the nonfarm categories.
5
Financial debt is debt owed to banks for purchasing or carrying securities, customers' debt to brokers, and debt owed
to life insurance companies by policyholders.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Treasury Department, Department of Agriculture.
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board. Federal Land Banks, and Federal
National Mortgage Association.
102
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
TABLE A-35.—Federal budget receipts and outlays,
1950-73
(Millions of dollars]
Fiscal year
Consolidated cash statement:
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
40,940
53,390
68,011
71,495
43,147
45,797
67,962
76,769
Unified budget:
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
70,890
74,547
79,990
79.636
79,249
68,509
70,460
76,741
82,575
92,104
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
92,492
94.389
99,676
106.560
112,662
92,223
97,795
106,813
111,311
118,584
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
116,833
130,856
149.552
153,671
187,784
118,430
134,652
158,254
178,833
184,548
193,743
188.392
196,588
211,425
231.600
250,000
1970...
1971...,
1972 P.,
1973 K .
1
69,719
208,600
223,000
Estimates.
Note.—Certain interfund transactions are excluded from receipts and outlays.
Refunds of receipts are excluded from receipts and outlays.
Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget
103
TABLE A-36.—Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the national income
and product accounts, 1950-72
[Billions of dollars]
Year or
quarter
Total
Fiscal year:
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956 .
1957 .
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970 .
1971
1972
Calendar year:
1950
1951
1952...
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958... .
1959
1960
1961
1962...
1963
1964
1965.
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971 .
Surplus
or
deficit
Expenditures
Receipts
Indirect
PerPurCorsonal
busi- Conchases
poness tributax
of
rate
lax tions
and
for Total i goods
non- profits and
and
non- social
tax
tax
servtax insuracreices
ance
ceipts cruals accruals
Transfer
payments
To
persons
Grantsin-aid
to State
To
and
forlocal
eign- governers
ments
(net)
Net
interest
paid
Subsidies
less
<-).
curnarent
tionsural
inplus
come
of
and
govprodernment
uct
enteracprises counts
42.0 16.5 11.9
60.8 23.2 21.5
65.1 28.8 19.3
69.3 31.4 19.7
65.8 30.3 1 7 . 3
67.2 29.7 18.7
75.8 33.6 21.1
80.7 36.7 20.6
77.9 36.3 1 1 7 . 8
85.4 38.2 21.5
94.8 42.5 22.3
95.3 43.6 20.3
104.2 ;; 47.3 22.9
110.2 49.6 23.5
115.5 50.7 25.7
120.5 51.3 27.7
132.8 57.6 31.0
147.2 64.5 31.2
160.6 7 1 . 4 33.7
190.4 89.9 37.4
195.0 93.7 33.1
193.0 87.1 32.0
99.2
8.2
9.5
9.7
10.7
10.4
10.0
10.8
11.7
11.6
11.9
13.2
13.3
14.2
15.0
15.6
16.9
15.7
15.8
17.1
18.6
19.2
20.1
20.0
5.5
42.4
44.6
6.6
66.0
7.3
7.5
75.8
74.2
7.8
67.3
8.7
10.2
69.8
11.7
76.0
83.1
12.2
90.9
13.8
91.3
16.7
98.0
18.1
19.9 106.4
22.1 111.4
23.5 116.9
24.6 118.5
28.5 131.9
35.7 154.5
38.3 172.5
44.4 185.7
49.0 i 196.3
53.8 212.8
59.4 233.2
19.0
25.1
46.6
56.1
53.2
43.9
45.2
47.7
50.7
54.7
52.7
55.5
60.9
63.4
65.7
64.4
71.7
85.3
94.9
99.4
98.3
95.8
103.1
11.3
8.1
8.5
9.3
10.5
12.1
12.8
14.4
17.8
19.8
20.6
23.6
25.1
26.4
27.3
28.3
31.8
37.2
42.7
48.5
54.8
67.5
75.7
4.3
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.7
4.7
6.2
6.8
6.9
7.6
8.4
9.8
10.9
12.7
14.8
17.8
19.2
22.6
27.0
32.8
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.7
5.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
7.5
8.1
8.5
9.0
9.9
10.9
12.3
14.0
14.3
13.5
1.0
1.3
1.1
.9
1.0
1.3
1.7
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.3
3.2
3.8
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.5
5.1
4.1
4.1
4.7
5.9
5.3
-0.5
16.2
-1.0
-6.5
—8.5
-.1
6.0
4.7
-5.1
-5.5
3.5
-2.7
-2.1
-1.2
-1.4
2.0
.9
-7.3
-11.9
4.7
-1.3
-19.7
49.9
64.0
67.2
70.0
63.8
72.1
77.6
81.6
78.7
89.7
96.5
98.3
106.4
114.5
115.0
124.7
142.5
151.2
175.0
197.3
191.6
199.1
18.1
26.1
31.0
32.2
29.0
31.4
35.2
37.4
36.8
39.9
43.6
44.7
48.6
51.5
48.6
53.8
61.7
67.5
79.7
94.8
92.4
89.6
8.9
9.4
10.3
10.9
9.7
10.7
11.2
11.8
11.5
12.5
13.5
13.6
14.6
15.3
16.1
16.5
15.7
16.318.0
19.0
19.3
20.5
18.4
5.9
40.8
7.1
57.8
37.7
71.0
7.4
51.8
7.4
77.0
57.0
8.1
69.7
47.4
68.1
44.1
9.3
10.6
71.9
45.6
12.2
79.6
49.5
12.4
53.6
88.9
53.7
14.8
91.0
17.7
93.0
53.5
18.2 102.1
57.4
63.4
20.5 110.3
23.1 113.9
64.2
23.8 118.1
65.2
25.1 123.5
66.9
33.0 142.8
77.8
36.7 163.6
90.7
40.7 181.5
98.8
46.9 i 189.2 ! 98.8
49.5 | 204.5
96.5
55.9 220.8
97.8
10.8
8.5
8.8
9.5
11.5
12.4
13.4
15.7
19.5
20.1
21.5
24.9
25.5
27.0
27.8
30.3
33.4
40.0
46.1
50.3
61.1
72.4
3.6
3.1
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
11.1
14.4
15.8
18.7
20.3
24.5
29.3
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.0
4.9
5.3
5.7
5.6
6.4
7.1
6.6
7.2
7.7
8.3
8.7
9.5
10.2
11.7
13.1
14.6
13.6
1.2
1.3
1.0
.8
1.1
1.5
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.5
3.8
4.0
3.6
4.2
4.3
5.4
4.6
4.1
4.6
5.5
5.2
9.1
6.2
-3.8
-7.0
-5.9
4.0
5.7
2.1
-10.2
-1.2
3.5
-3.8
-3.8
.7
-3.0
1.2
-.2
-12.4
-6.5
8.1
-12.9
-21.7
192.2
194.2
190.9
189.1
94.2 1 30.5 ! 19.1 1 48.4
94.8 30.8 19.2 49.3
89.7 31.5 19.5 50.1
90.9 28.7 19.4 50.0
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
23.3
24.1
25.0
25.8
14.4
14.4
14.9
14.6
5.0
5.6
5.7
5.6
-3.8
-13.4
-14.7
-19.7
17.0
21.5
18.5
19.5
17.0
20.6
20.6
20.2
18.0
22.5
21.7
21.8
22.7
24.6
26.4
29.3
32.1
30.7
36.7
36.6
30.4
33.1
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970:1
II
Ill
IV .
1971:1
11
Ill
IV
1972:1
II
196.4
198.2
199.1
. . 202.8
i
86.6
88.1
89.8
93.8
33.9
34.4
33.2
31.1
221.4 105.8
1[107.2
i
34.0
i
195.9
207.5
205.6
208.8
99.7 i 54.0
96.2 63.0
95.2 62.2
95.0 65.3
20.9
20.2
20.0
20.8
55.0 212.4
55.6 221.2
56.1 ! 222.2
57.0 227.5
96.2
96.3
97.9
100.7
66.9
74.3
73.6
74.9
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.9
27.1
29.5
29.8
30.8
14.0
13.6
13.6
13.3
6.0
5.1
4.6
5.0
-16.0
-23.0
-23.1
-24.7
19.9
19.4
61.7
62.6
105.7
108.2
76.6
77.7
2.8
2.9
32.4
38.0
13.1
13.8
5.6
5.9
-14.8
236.3
246.6
i Wage accruals less disbursements have been subtracted from total. These were (in billions of dollars, at seasonally
adjusted annual rates) 2.5, - 2 . 1 , - 0 . 4 , and .0 in the four quarters of 1970, .0, .0, .0, and .1 in the four quarters of 1971,
and .0 and —.1 in the first two quarters of 1972, respectively.
* Preliminary; based on seasonally adjusted quarterly data.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
104
TABLE A - 3 7 . -
-Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector of the national
tncome and product accounts, 1950-72
[Billions of dollars)
Receipts
Expenditures
PerIndirect Contri
sonal
Corbusi- butions Fedtax
porate ness
for
eral
Total
and
profits
tax
social grants
nontax tax
and
insur- in-aid
receipts accruals nontax ance
accruals
21.1
23.3
25.2
27.2
28.8
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.7
31.4
34.7
38.2
41.6
46.0
4.1
4.7
5.2
5.6
6.3
49.9
53.6
58.6
63.4
69.5
Surplus
Pur- Transchases
fer
of
payNet
TotaM goods ments interest
and
to
paid
servperices
sons
0.8
.9
14.5
15.8
17.3
18.7
19.7
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
22.3
23.7
25.3
27.0
29.9
19.5
21.5
22.9
24.6
27.4
3.5
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
0.3
.3
.3
.3
.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
21.4
23.6
25.5
27.0
28.9
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8
32.7
35.6
39.5
44.0
46.8
30.1
33.0
36.6
40.6
43.3
3.7
3.8
4.2
4.6
4.8
.5
.5
.5
7.3
7.7
8.7
9.4
31.7
34.1
36.9
39.4
42.3
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.1
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
49.6
54.1
57.6
62.2
67.8
46.1
50.2
53.7
58.2
63.5
5.1
5.5
5.7
10.8
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.9
6.5
75.5
85.2
93.5
107.1
119.7
11.8
13.7
15.5
18.3
21.7
2.1
2.2
2.4
3.2
3.4
45.9
49.9
54.1
60.6
67.0
4.5
5.0
5.7
6.4
7.3
14.4
15.8
18.7
20.3
11.1
74.5
83.9
95.1
107.5
119.0
70.1
79.0
89.4
100.8
111.2
6.9
7.7
8.7
10.0
11.6
135.0
151.8
24.3
27.4
3.8
4.2
74.1
81.4
8.3
9.4
24.5
29.3
132.1
147.0
122.5
135.0
14.1
16.6
.8
1.0
.6
.7
.7
.8
6.0
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970:
IL
Ill
IV
130.1
133.6
137.1
139.1
23.7
24.1
24.6
24.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.5
71.4
73.4
75.2
76.2
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.6
23.3
24.1
25.0
25.8
126.5
129.8
134.1
138.2
117.6
120.5
124.3
127.6
13.1
13.7
14.5
15.2
-0.5
-.5
-.6
-.4
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
3.6
3.8
2.9
.9
1971: 1
II
Ill
IV
144.2
150.1
154.0
158.7
25.8
27.1
27.7
29.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.1
78.3
80.1
82.6
84.8
9.0
9.2
9.5
9.8
27.1
29.5
29.8
30.8
142.2
145.2
147.8
152.7
130.8
133.3
135.7
140.2
16.0
16.3
16.7
17.2
-.2
-.1
-.1
-.1
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
2.0
5.0
6.2
6.0
164.8
30.6
32.3
4.7
86.8
88.8
10.2
10.5
32.4
38.0
157.7
160.4
143.7
146.4
17.8
18.2
.0
.0
4.4
4.4
7.1
1972: 1
II
9
1
Wage accruals less disbursements have been subtracted from total. These were (in billions of dollars, at seasonally
adjusted annual rates) .0 in each of the four quarters of 1970, and .0 f .0, .3, and .4 in the four quarters of 1971, and
6
and —.2 in the first two quarters of 1972, respectively.
1
Deficit of *41 million.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts.
105
AGRICULTURE
TABLE A-38.—Income offarm people andfarmers,
1950-72
Income received from farming
Personal income
received by total
farm population
Net to farm
operators
Realized gross
Year or
quarter
From
From
From
nonfarm
all
farm
sources*
sources
sources'
Totals
Production ex- Exclud- IncludCash
receipts penses ing net ing net
invenfrom
inventory
markettory
ings
change change4
Net income per
farm, including
net inventory
change
Current
dollars
1967
dollars *
Dollars
Billions of dollars
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
20.4
22.7
22.1
19.8
18.4
14.1
16.2
15.4
13.4
12.5
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.4
5.9
32.3
37.1
36.8
35.0
33.6
28.5
32.9
32.5
31.0
29.8
19.4
22.3
22.6
21.3
21.6
12.9
14.8
14.1
13.7
12.0
13.7
16.0
15.1
13.1
12.5
2.421
2.946
2.896
2.626
2,606
3,186
3,549
3.448
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
17.6 ;
17.8
17.7
19.5
18.1
11.4
11.2
11.0
12.8
11.0
6.2
6.6
6.6
6.7
7.0
33.1
34.3
34.0
37.9
37.5
29.5
30.4
29.7
33.5
33.5
21.9
22.4
23.3
25.2
26.1
11.2
11.9
10.7
12.7
11.4
11.5
11.4
11.3
13.5
11.5
2.463
2.535
2.590
3,189
2,795
2,932
2,982
2.943
3,583
3,140
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
18.7
19.7
20.4
20.6
20.6
11.5
12.2
12.3
12.1
11.3
7.2
7.5
8.2
8.5
9.3
38.1
39.8
41.3
42.3
42.6
34.2
35.1
36.4
37.4
37.2
26.4
27.1
28.6
29.7
29.5
11.7
12.6
12.6
12.6
13.1
12.1
13.0
13.2
13.2
12.3
3.049
3.399
3.586
3.708
3,564
3,388
3,777
3,941
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
23.6
24.9
24.0
25.1
27.6
13.5
14.4
13.1
13.2
14.9
10.0
10.5
10.9
11.9
12.7
44.9
49.7
49.0
50.9
55.6
39.3
43.3
42.7
44.1
48.1
30.9
33.4
34.8
36.2
38.8
14.0
16.3
14.2
14.7
16.8
15.0
16.3
14.9
14.8
16.9
4.487
5,019
4.730
4,854
5,674
4,723
5,121
4,730
4,667
5,206
1970
1971
28.2
29.5
15.0
15.6
13.2
13.9
57.9
60.1
50.5
53.1
41.1
44.0
16.8
16.1
16.8
17.4
5.754
6,049
5,047
5,083
MS
3,102
3,832
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
58.4
58.0
57.7
57.6
51.0
50.6
50.3
50.2
40.4
40.9
41.3
41.8
18.0
17.1
16.4
15.8
18.0
17.1
16.4
15.8
6,160
5,850
5,610
5,400
5,500
5,180
4,920
4,700
59.0
59.1
60.4
61.8
51.9
52.1
53.4
54.9
43.2
43.7
44.3
44.9
15.8
15.4
16.1
16.9
16.8
16.9
17.7
18.2
5,840
5,880
6,150
6,330
4,990
4,980
5,130
5,280
64.1
64.8
56.5
56.9
45.6
46.5
18.5
18.3
19.3
18.9
6.820
6,680
5,590
5,390
1 Net income to farm operators including net inventory change, less net income of nonresident operators, plus wages
and salaries and other labor income of farm resident workers, less contributions of farm resident operators and workers
to social insurance.
2
Consists of income received by farm residents from nonfarm sources, such as wages and salaries from nonfarm employment, nonfarm business and professional income, rents from nonfarm real estate, dividends, interest, royalties,
unemployment compensation, and social security payments.
, ® Cash receipts from marketings. Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms (excluding net
inventory change).
«Includes net value of physical change in inventory of crops and livestock valued at average prices for the year.
»Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
106
TABLE A-39.—Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio,
(Index, 1967=1001
Prices received by farmers
All farm
products
Crops
Prices paid by farmers
Livestock
and
products
All items,
interest,
taxes, and
wage rates
75
82
84
81
81
76
83
84
84
84
84
85
88
AO
09
89
Family
living
items
Production
items
102
119
113
100
97
103
117
118
106
107
101
121
91
91
92
98
95
102
104
84
82
98
93
81
81
84
oe
OD
87
94
94
96
96
93
99
100
103
106
106
91
91
92
89
85
88
88
90
91
92
90
90
91
92
93
98
105
100
103
105
100
101
97
94
105
100
104
117
94
98
100
104
109
95
98
100
104
109
110
100
107
118
116
114
120
114
119
110
113
114
114
96
97
97
97
100
101
126
126
125
121
117
117
112
113
113
114
114
114
112
112
112
113
113
114
108
109
109
109
109
109
102
101
104
104
106
100
119
115
116
113
109
108
114
114
115
115
115
116
114
114
115
115
115
116
109
109
111
111
111
112
102
105
110
108
110
113
117
115
114
114
113
117
118
118
119
120
120
116
117
117
117
118
119
112
113
114
115
115
116
112
113
111
114
115
116
109
107
104
106
109
108
114
117
117
118
119
122
120
120
121
121
121
122
119
120
120
120
120
121
116
116
116
116
117
117
119
122
120
119
123
125
111
110
108
112
115
116
126
131
129
125
129
131
123
124
124
125
125
126
121
123
123
123
124
124
118
118
119
120
120
121
127
116
136
127
125
122
103
112
111
110
110
112
109
111
109
108
104
107
112
112
111
112
113
108
110
97
90
1910eir4-lQ0ebaae° ° f
ind6X
p 8 l d
" " " reC6iVed H f a r m e r S t0 i n d " °f
'
a The adjustedSparity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
107
Actual
100
102
106
115
t a X 6 S
'
^
1950-72
BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS
TABLE A - 4 0 . — U . S . balance of payments,
1950-72
[Millions of dollars]
Military transactions
Merchandise 12
Year or
quarter
195 0
195 1
195 2
1953..
1954..
Net
Imports j balance
Exports
10,203
| 14,243
13,449
12,412
12,929!
-9,081
-11,176
-10,838
-10,975
-10,353
I
196 0
196 1
196 2
196 3
196 4
19,650 20,107 •
20,779 22,252 25,478:-
196 5
196 6
1967.
1968
26,438!- >21.496
29,287!- •25,463
30.638: -26.8211
33,576 -32,964;
36,417- -35,796:
!
41,963 - •39,799!
42,770|- •45,459
Private)
U.S.
Government
RemitBal- tances,
penance sions
Other
on
serv- goods and
other
ices, and
uninet servlateral
ices » transfers^
1,892 3.81712,356 532 1.959;-
Balance
on
current
account
-4,017 -2,125
302
•3,515
>2.531 - 1 7 5
-2,481! -1,949
-321
-2,280!
1,382
1,569
1,535!
1,5661
1,899]
78
151
140
166
213
-120
298.
83-238!
-269
- -2,901
- -2,949
- -3,216
- -3,435!
- -3,107.
200
161
375
300
302
-2,70l!
-2,788
-2,8411
-3,135
-2,805
2,1172,454'
2,584'
2,416;
2,658
180
40
4
168
68-
-297
-361
-189,
-633!
-821
-43
47
72
78
62s
4,906'- -3.087'
5,588 - -2,998
4,561,- -3.105
5,241'- -2,961'
6,831 - -2,880.
335
402
656
657
747
-2,752
-2,596
-2,449,
-2,304
-2,133
2,825
3,4511
3,9204,056!
4,872|
77j
30;
115!
178!
142;
4,107'
5,599
5,126
5,957
8,568,
2,122. 5,274
4,942:- -2,952
829 - 2 , 9 3 5 ' 5,331
3,824;- -3,764'
3.817:- -4,378! 1.240
"
-3,138 5,847!
6 1 2 - -4,535, 1.392 -3.143. 6,157
621.- •4,856: 1,512 -3,344j 5,820
16' —964
103 - 9 7 8
132 - 1 . 155:
97.-1,312
3 -1,149
!
I
21 - 1 , 3 1 8
44 - 1 , 3 8 0
40 - 1 , 7 6 3
63,-1.565
155.-1,784
301!!
286
334
302
442
77 , n„ _o J _ 9
2.835 4,263
5.17G - -2,890 2,280
5.136 - •3.081 2.055
2.425 - -2.909 - 4 8 4
1,911.- •2,946 -1,035
2,164'-4,852! 1,479 -3.374 1 6,376.
- •2,689 —4,817| 1,923 -2,894 8,952.
-115-2,06l'-957,-2,432
12'576f
14,424!- -11,5271!
17,556'- -12,803!
19,562 - -13,2911
16,414 - -12,952
16,458.- -15,310!
Net
balance
Net
travel !
and
trans<
porta
tion expenditures
-576
-1,270
-2,054!
92 -2,423182 -2,460
1,122 - 5 7 6
3,067 -1,270
2,611'- -2,054
1,437:- -2,615
-2,642
195 5
1956
1957
1958.
1959
1970
197 1
Direct
expend' Sales
itures
Net investment income
2,897
4,753
6,271
3,462
1.148
I
-14,744 :
>14,519,
-16.218
-17,011
-18.647
T
I
:
2,153; -2,498. - 3 4 5
4,145! -2,423! 1,722
5,901 •2,345 3,556
-5
2,356 -2,361
310, . - 2 , 4 4 8 -2,138
1
92,292!
2,513
2.631:
2,742
2,754;
1,815
3,086
2.495
3,215
5,814
356
574* 3.563'- •3.208
748
727,- •3,575 -2,847
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
I
I
1.092 - 3 , 6 2 8
1,764 - 3 , 2 7 2
1,316 - 3 , 5 2 4
1.744'—3,068.
S
6.236
132 - 1 . 7 1 2 !
5,832
- 4 -2,132
6.580 - 2 6 4 - 2 . 3 9 6
6.856j - 3 2 4 - 2 . 0 0 4
S
i
2,040,—2.660, 7,596' - 4 0 4 - 1 , 9 9 2 !
2,064.—2,792 : 9,408" - 6 4 4 - 2.500,
1,896 - 2 . 8 9 6 8.152 -1,308 - 2 , 4 2 4 !
1,692- - 3 , 2 2 8 ) 10,652 - 1 , 4 7 2 : - 2 , 8 1 2 ,
II....
III...
IV....
40,924
42,260
42,820
41,848
-38,924* 2,000 - - 4 , 7 2 0
-39.324 2,936 - - 5 , 0 3 6
- 3 9 , 8 7 2 2.948.- - 4 , 8 4 0
-41,076|
772.- - 4 , 8 1 2 j
1971:I
II.—
III...
IV....
44,068
42,840
45.916
38,256
-42.912!
-46.888 —47,804 -44,232.-
1972: I f
47,236 - 53,928 - 6 . 6 9 2 - 4 , 8 9 2 1,428 - 3 , 4 6 4 8,868|-1,524 - 2 , 5 7 2 ;
I
i
I
I
I
!
I
I
1970:I
I
1,156'- - 4 , 7 0 0
-4,048 - - 4 , 8 5 6
1,888 - - 4 , 7 9 2
-5,976 - - 4 , 9 2 0
See footnotes at end of table.
108
564
508
612
616.
3,592
3.868
3.956
2.848
- 3.060!
-3,092
-3.284
-3,396:
532
776
672
-548
848: 4, 544'-3.164
1,380
720"
144'-3.384 - 3.240
728!
364 - 3 , 7 8 4 : - 3 . 4 2 0
688-2,148 —3,968|—6,116
796J-4,588j—3,788J—8,376
TABLE A-40.—U.S. balance of payments, 1950-72—Continued
(Millions of dollars]
Long-term
capital
flows,
net
Year or
quarter
U.S.
Government*
Private*
Balance
on current
account
and
longterm
capital
AlioNoncaliquid
tions
shortof
term
private special
capital
flows, drawing
net*
rights
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
- 4 9
127
456
403
-496
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
43
- 8 9
838
Errors
and
omissions,
net
Net
liquidity
balance
Liquid
private
capital
flows,
nets
Change
in liabilities
to
foreign
official
agencies,
net«
Official
reserve
transactions
balance
1.758
- 3 3
-415
1.256
480
182
371
216
361
171
-2.100
1 9 60
1961
196 2
1963
196 4
—90lJ—2.181
-892|-2.607
- 1 . 1 5 0 -3.357
-1.349 -4.470
1965....
. - 1 . 5 3 2
. - 1 . 4 6 9
—2,424
-2,159
1 9 66
1 9 67
1 9 68
1969
~ j - 1 . 9 2 6 |
1 9 70
1971
-4.577
-2.555
-2.912
1.198
- 5 0
2.018J—1,3981
.j-2.378j-4.149j
-1,174
>-1,405
i-3.676
4»-1,200
-1.003
-1,292
4
9
-2,251
' —2.864
- 4 5 5 '—2,713
-1,048
-2,696
-1,206
9
—657
9
- 9 6 8
-1,642
- 1 5 4 .
- 1 0 4
—522 L
-1.846
-1,744
-3.280
-1.444
-3.011
230
- 6 4 0
-3.059
-9.374
- 4 8 2
-2,420
Changes
in U.S.
official
reserve
assets,
net7
-476
- 3 0 2
-881
- 3 9 9
-2.470
...
867;
-1.174
-2,477
-2.151
-4.683
-1,610
-6.122
-3.851
-22,002
7l7j
9
I...
II..
-1.848 -3.688
-944
j—2,252
- 7 6 4
III...;-i;296
IV.
1971:
I...
II...
III..
IV..
-2.680
-196
-5,004
-2,420
-1,388
-3,424
i—2.
- 9 8 8
-224'
168!
-884
868
868
868
864
-1.
-2,
-
2
6
7
1
0
4
0
4
4
0
8
8
-5,116
-3,688
i-2.336 -6,420 -11,996
; - 2 . 2 3 2 - 7 . 532 - 1 3 . 1 8 4
j—2.132
1,040 - 7 , 2 0 8
-2.136
-3,532
-2,752
720' - 3 . 7 7 6
716-10.344
716 - 2 1 , 5 2 0
716 - 8 , 0 7 2
-1,540 -3,048 -12,964
-2,116
712
1972:
-1.260
-5.328 '
-3,416
-3.060
-3,592
22,797
23,666
24,832
22,540
21,504
2,145;
19,359
273
903
214
9
779
1,162
—3.403j 1
-1.348
-2.650.
-1,934"
-1,534
1.533
3771
171
17,220
16.843
16,672
1,188
2,370
1,265
3,251
8,824
-1.289=
1,222;
67
219
568
-787
-3.418,
52.
3.366
1.641'
-761
2.702: - 1 , 5 1 5 ! - 1 . 1 8 7
15,450
14.882
14,830
15.710
l0
16,964
9
9
1,258
742
1,117
1.557
1,363
606! 1 8 . 7 5 3
-880,
-9,839;
-5.988
-7.763 -29.765
7.362
i
27,4171
2.477
2.348
14,487
"12,167
Unadjusted
-5.844 -11,172'
-4,844
-8.260.
-7.4761
-4,416
-8,848 -12,440
10,1161
5,040
5.1401
9,144
18.972
- 1 0 , 3 0 8 - 1 1 , 3 9 2 —21,700'
23.228
-22,884
- 2 . 9 8 0 -25,8641
- 3 7 , 5 2 0 - 1 0 , 2 0 4 —47.724 j 42.948
-17.316
- 6 . 4 7 6 -23,792.1 24.540
1,920 - 1 2 , 4 4 8
24,265
24.299
24.714
23,458
22,978
-869
-1,165
2,292
1,035
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1970:
U.S.
official
reserve
assets.
net
(end of
period)
- 6 6 0 -13,108!
i!
11,392
1.056
3.220
2,336
3,296
17.350
16,328
15.527
14,487
14,342
2.728
13.504
2,636
12,131
4,776
- 7 4 8 , "12.167
1.716
12,270
'
Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
.
Includes fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States.
4
Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies.
s
Private foreigners exclude the I M F , but include other international and regional organizations.
• Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government and U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the
I M F arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the United States.
n f M S :»; f t n
J
Official reserve assets include gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position
in the I M F .
1
2
3
9
C o m S g e ? / n ^ ^ S n g claims for 1 9 6 0 - 6 3 and of nonliquid nonbanking claims f o r l 9 6 0 - 6 2 is limited to foreign
currency deposits only; other liquid items are not available separately and are included with nonliquid claims.
Includes gain of $67 million resulting from revaluation of the German mark in October 1M9
f
» Includes $28 million increase in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as ot
Dec.
31,1971.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Treasury Department.
109
U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1972 O - 468-631
H
B
m
in
o
Q
a
Q
3
-<
It
@FedFRASER