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MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S IN E S S C O N D IT IO N S ISA A C B. NEW TON, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. XVI San Francisco, California, September 20,1932 No. 9 T W E L F T H FED ER AL RESERVE DISTRICT CONDITIONS Production of the District’s principal indus tries and activity in most fields of trade in creased in response to seasonal influences dur ing August. Wholesale prices for many commodities important in the Twelfth District continued to rise during August and the first half of September. Credit conditions were easier in city than in country bank areas. Harvesting of many agricultural products approached completion during August, while late maturing crops developed satisfactorily. September 1 estimates confirmed earlier indi cations of larger aggregate crop production than in the preceding year. Marketing activity increased seasonally, but was lower than in August, 1931. Inventories of agricultural prod ucts generally remained relatively large, but prices continued to advance from the record low levels of early summer. Operations in the California petroleum in dustry continued under curtailment during August, with little change apparent in demand for or output of the industry’s products. Activ ity in the lumber industry remained at ex tremely low levels, although a slight increase in demand for lumber was indicated by the larger volume of orders received by mills. Build ing and construction failed to reveal any note worthy change during August. Production of foods increased during the month, reflecting largely seasonal activity in the canning of fruits. The number of industrial employees in California increased by more than has been usual during August. More than the seasonal rise from July to August was recorded in retail trade. Sales at wholesale also increased after seasonal adjust ment. Automobile registrations remained prac tically unchanged. Freight carloadings in creased by less than is customary, but inter coastal traffic through the Panama Canal was larger in August than in July, although a re cession in tonnage is usual between these months. Additional funds were made available to banks in city areas during the five weeks end ing September 21. Substantial increases in cir culation of national bank notes were more than sufficient to meet seasonal demands for cur rency, and enabled member banks to reduce borrowings at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Time and net demand deposits of reporting member banks were practically un changed between August 17 and September 21. Government deposits and investments in creased sharply on September 15 as a result of Government financing on that date. Banks con verted part of the securities into cash almost immediately, thereby increasing the supply of banking funds available to the District. During the ten weeks preceding September 15, total loans and investments of reporting member banks had been practically unchanged, continu ous declines in loans having been offset by in creased holdings of United States securities. Agriculture During August and early September weather conditions continued favorable for agricultural activities in the Twelfth District. Completion of the harvests of many fruit, grain, and field crops and the satisfactory development of late crops continue to indicate that the volume of crop production during 1932 will be larger than in 1931. A considerable amount of fruit in the Pacific Coast states is not being picked because current prices are not returning harvesting and marketing costs. Ranges continue to furnish adequate feed for livestock. During the autumn harvesting and market ing season, the price of farm commodities is more important to producers and to agencies financing agriculture than in other seasons. In August of this year, prices for crops and ani mal products at the farm, as represented by the United States Department of Agriculture price index, were 4 per cent higher than in the preceding month, and 14 per cent higher than in June, although the index was at the lowest point recorded in any August since it was first compiled in 1910. MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS 66 Despite the greater volume of agricultural products available for consumption, the volume marketed thus far this autumn has been smaller than in the corresponding period of 1931. Stocks of agricultural products in the raw and semi processed state were generally larger on Sep tember 1 this year than on the same date in 1931. I N D E X E S O F A G R I C U L T U R A L P R I C E S - U n i t e d States (August, 1909-July, 1914=100) f ------------------------ A u gu st —-----------------------% 1932 A ll G ro u p s .................................... G ra in s .............................................. F ru its and V e g e t a b l e s ............ C o t t o n an d C o t t o n s e e d ............ M e a t A n im a ls ............................. D a ir y P r o d u c t s ........................... P o u ltr y P r o d u c ts ...................... 59 43 79 51 69 65 75 1931 75 54 97 53 92 87 93 1929 143 129 160 146 165 137 151 1921 116 103 178 91 112 1913 101 95 102 93 110 138 143 S o u r c e : U n ite d S ta te s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g ric u ltu re . Previous estimates that grain crops would be larger in 1932 than in 1931 have been substan tiated by near-completion of harvesting. Pro duction of most field crops— beans, cotton, potatoes, and rice— will be smaller this year than in 1931 or 1930, although tame hay pro duction is expected to be approximately 25 per cent larger than a year ago. G R A IN A N D F IE L D C R O P S— P R O D U C T IO N (In thousands) F orecast F orecast 1931 Sept. 1,1932 A u g. 1,1932 B ea n s (b a g s ) 3,219 5,550 3,444 C a liforn ia , I d a h o . . . 12,713 9,645 9,907 U n ite d S t a t e s .............. C o t t o n (b a le s ) 292 194 198 A r iz o n a , C a lifo rn ia . . 17,096 11,306 11,310 U n ite d S tates ............ H o p s (p o u n d s ) C a liforn ia , O re g o n , 24,505 25,852 25,970 W a s h in g t o n .......... . P o t a t o e s (b u s h e ls ) 41,786 45,771 41,036 T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . 367,399 375,518 356,746 U n ite d S ta te s .......... R ic e (b u s h e ls ) 6,270 8,000 6,490 C a lifo rn ia ................... 39,084 45,014 37,711 U n ite d S tates ............ T a m e H a y (to n s ) 10,524 13,070 13,188 T w e lfth D is tr ic t . . . 67,390 64,213 68,587 U n ite d S ta tes .......... S u g a r B eets (to n s ) 2,526 1,870 C a lif., I d a h o , U ta h . 7,933 8,206 U n ite d S ta tes ........... B a rle y (b u s h e ls ) 51,285 23,535 51.532 T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . . 302,808 198,185 U n ite d S ta te s .......... „ 302,666 O a ts (b u s h e ls ) 24,251 21,795 24,666 T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . . 1,214,733 1,112,037 U n ite d S ta te s .......... , 1,244,781 W h e a t (b u s h e ls ) 114,309 90,291 T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . 114,842 722,687 894,204 U n ite d S tates .......... . 714,538 S ou rce: 1930 6,179 13,759 419 13,932 23,447 47,150 333,210 7,271 44,299 12,169 63,463 1,767 9,199 44,621 304,601 26,300 1,277,764 112,562 858,160 U n ite d S ta tes D e p a rtm e n t o f A g ric u ltu re . Excepting grapes, the bulk of this year’s de ciduous fruit production in California had been harvested by mid-September. Most of the crops are larger this year than in 1931 but smaller than in 1930. Grape production in that state is estimated to be 1,822,000 tons, com pared with a crop of 1,320,000 tons in 1931, which was the smallest crop in ten years. Nearly 90 per cent of the increase as compared with last year is the result of larger production of raisin grapes. In the Pacific Northwest, as in California, the commercial crop of apples will September, 1932 be larger this year than last, although the total crop approximates that of 1931. Harvesting of other deciduous fruit crops in the Pacific Northwest is now being finished. A P P L E S - P R O D U C T IO N (in thousands of bushels) F o re ca st C om m ercia l C r o p Sept. 1,1932 C a lifo rn ia .................................. 6,480 I d a h o ........................................... 4,290 O r e g o n ......................................... 3,150 U ta h .............................................. 543 W a s h in g to n ............................. 28,080 T o ta l ....................................... U n ited S tates ........................... 42,543 88,851 1931 4,647 3,969 2,079 210 25,893 36,798 103,476 1930 6,522 4,650 4,470 945 33,597 '5 0 ,1 8 4 101,004 Current production estimates of citrus fruits in California indicate slightly lower yields in 1932 than in 1931. Rail shipments of oranges and lemons during August were smaller than in July, but approximated shipments in August, 1931. In August, orange prices at $1.66 per box, f.o.b. California, averaged lower than in any month since January, and were 22 per cent lower than a year ago. Lemon prices increased during the month. Livestock continued to gain satisfactorily during August, and the autumn movement of cattle and lambs to market commenced during that month. The proportion of total market shipments represented by feeder lambs is run ning smaller this fall than in 1931 when poor feed conditions resulted in unusually heavy marketing of such stock. There has been little forward contracting of lambs for autumn and winter feeding and low prices prevail for this class of animal. Cattle receipts at Twelfth District markets during the summer months were about 10 per cent smaller and lamb re ceipts about 17 per cent smaller than a year ago. In contrast with the trend of receipts in the mid-Western markets, shipments of hogs to Pacific Coast markets continued larger than a year ago. The number of beef cattle, particularly cows and calves on farms and ranges, has increased A g r ic u lt u r a l M a r k e t in g A c t iv it y — t --------- A u g u s t ----------> /— Seaso n to D a te —v 1932 1931 1932 1931 13,607 5,799 3,811 16,554 5,942 3,364 26,966 65,894 51,358 35,232 70,221 63,537 1,091,841 556,910 1,059,382 581 ,746 1,211,523 1,073,582 3,237,771 1,293,155 37,972 133,127 . 585,813 121,616 E g g s (ca se s) .. . . B u tte r ( l b . ) .......... 6,274,826 6,068 W h e a t (c a r lo t s ) . . 674 B a rle y ( c a r lo t s ) . . 48,939 139,621 702,813 137,627 7,236,778 6,665 558 335,068 1 ,424,794 2,593,914 1,203,057 56,078,186 8,681 1,268 352,738 1,111,533 3,057,688 1,338,622 55,595,477 11,435 1,499 S to r a g e H o ld in g s (e n d o f m o n t h ) W h e a t ( b u . ) . . . . . 2,034,000 703,242 B eans (b a g s ) B u tte r ( lb .) .......... 7,009,853 576,192 E g g s (c a s e s ) ------ 13,640,000 689,409 5,391,431 540 ,104 C a rlo t S h ip m en ts D e c id u o u s F r u it . C itru s F r u i t .......... V e g e ta b le s ............ E x p o rts W h e a t (b u .) . . . . B a rle y ( b u .) . . . . R e c e ip t s H ogs* ...................... *Los Angeles receipts not included. September, 1932 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO about 3 per cent in this District since 1930, while market receipts have declined slightly. Absorption of the larger volume of marketing likely to eventuate from this increase in breed ing herds at a fair rate of return to producers depends largely upon improvement in consumer purchasing power. The much better condition of ranges and plentiful supplies of hay, grain, and cottonseed by-products for fattening have improved the outlook for livestock feeding operations this autumn as compared with a year ago. Industry Changes in Twelfth District industry were predominantly seasonal in character during August. Crude oil production increased some what, but, seasonal factors considered, lumber ing and construction did not change materially, and output of cement declined. Consumption of electric energy changed little from July to August. Flour milling increased more sharply than has been customary at this time of year. Some increase in employment, largely sea sonal, was reported during August. Hiring of additional employees by the food manufac turing, clothing and textile, motion picture, and construction industries contributed the major part of the increase. There was little change during the month in the relatively small num ber employed at lumbering and mining. Gen eral manufacturing industries employed at least as many workers in August as in July. Vigorous efforts of the Twelfth District Indus trial and Banking Committee to alleviate un employment by spreading available jobs among E m p lo y m e n t— Industries S to n e , C la y and G lass P r o d u c t s .. --------- C a liforn ia ------N o . of N o . /—E m ployees of A u g ., A u g ., Firm s 1932 1931 .................... 177,298 5,107 (-— 17.0) 6,150 12,371 (- —2 9 .1 ) 16 1,500 (-— 16,2) 17,453 41 1,791 8 11,219 (- - 1 5 . 1 ) 13,209 5$ 54,029 (-— 12.4) 42 48,579 ( — 9 .2 ) 61,651 60 C lo th in g , M illin e ry a n d L a u n d e r in g . 161 F o o d , B ev e ra g e s and T o b a c c o . . . P u b lic U t i l i t i e s .. . 273 58,099 (- - 1 7 . 1 ) 50 7,473 (7 .3 ) O th e r I n d u s t r i e s f . 484 M i s c e l l a n e o u s ____ W h o le s a le and R e ta il ................. 119 149,798 ( - 1 5 .5 ) L u m b e r and W o o d M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 131 T e x tile s N o. of Firm s 36 -O r e g o n N o . of - E m ployees A u g ., A u g ., 1931 1932 14,428 (- 2 2 .0 ) 18,496 7,440 (- - 2 5 . 7 ) 809 (- - 3 4 . 1 ) 10,011 244 (- - 1 4 . 4 ) 1,739 (- - 2 1 . 5 ) 285 1,227 2,215 53,503 70,080 6,964 29 4,196 (--1 1 .8 ) 4,758 30,720 27,520 (- - 1 0 . 4 ) * P u b lic u tilitie s and w h o le sa le an d retail fig u re s n o t in clu d e d in this tota l, t ln c l u d e s th e fo llo w in g in d u s tr ie s : M e ta ls , m a c h in e r y and c o n v e y a n c e s ; lea th er and r u b b e r g o o d s ; o ils an d p a i n t s ; p rin tin g and p a p e r g o o d s . {L a u n d e r in g o n ly . 162 Figures in parentheses indicate percentage change from August, 1931. 67 the greatest number of workers possible through reduction of the hours of labor and by means of other plans adaptable to particu lar situations have been at least partially suc cessful. Reports of wage reductions were less numerous during July and August than in earlier months of this year. California petroleum output increased dur ing August and was slightly in excess of the proration allowable of 475,600 barrels daily set for that month. In the three weeks ending September 17, crude oil production was at about the same rate as in August. Effective October 1, when seasonal reductions in consumption of petroleum products usually become pronounced, it is planned to impose further restrictions upon output. Volume of crude oil run to refinery stills was smaller in August than in July, but gasoline inventories continued relatively large. Although the value of building permits is sued during August was larger than in July, this Bank’s adjusted quarterly indexes for both the larger and smaller groups of cities declined. Despite a sharp decrease in Federal Govern ment contracts, value of engineering contracts awarded increased after seasonal adjustment, chiefly because waterworks undertakings were larger than for any month since October, 1925. Lumber production increased by less than the seasonal amount during August. Shipments and orders were larger than in the preceding month and continued, as during most of the past two years, to exceed the volume of lumber cut, thereby contributing further to reductions in lumber inventories, which have been declin ing for more than a year. Complete data for lumber stocks are not reported, but available information indicates that they are now con siderably lower than at any time during the In d u s t r y — In dexes o f daily average produ ction , adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 daily averaee=l00) — 1!>32 A u g. July June M ay G eneral 32 C a rlo a d in g s — I n d u s t r ia l.. 31 34 34 137 E le c t r ic P w r . P r o d u c tio n . 1341Í 134 135 M a n u fa c tu r e s L u m b e r .................................. 33 35 35 32 144 137 R e fin e d M in e ra l O i l s f . . . 131 F lo u r ....................................... 109 85 103 100 90 S la u g h te r o f L iv e s t o c k . . 87 83 C e m e n t .................................. 45 51 43 54 82 108 W o o l C o n s u m p t io n ! 55 M in era ls P e tro le u m (C a lifo r n ia ) f . 73 72 71 76 L e a d ( U n it e d S ta te s ) t . . 33 31 49 59 S ilv e r (U n it e d S ta te s ) 41 40 41 49 B u ild in g and C o n s tr u c tio n § 32 29 29 33 B u ild in g P e rm its — V a lu e L a r g e r C ities ................. 10 12 13 17 S m a lle r C itie s ............... 13 14 14 15 E n g in e e r in g C o n tr a c ts A w a r d e d — V a lu e T o t a l ............................. 63 53 49 53 92 111 E x c lu d in g B u ild in g s . 123 96 -1931 A u g . July June 53 56 56 153 159 155 53 140 88 99 57 101 61 137 101 98 71 111 64 137 124 91 74 87 77 61 45 79 64 43 79 60 52 72 71 57 32 36 33 41 29 40 128 238 123 210 89 159 P re lim in a ry . f N o t a d ju s te d f o r season al v a ria tion s. {P r e p a r e d b y F ed era l R e se rv e B o a rd . § I n d e x e s are fo r three m on th s e n d in g w ith th e m o n th in d ica ted . 68 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS past two or three years. It is customary for mills to build up depleted stocks of their prod ucts in the later months of the year when de mand usually recedes somewhat. Canning of this year’s pack of fruits and vegetables was practically completed in Cali fornia during August, and was well under way in the Pacific Northwest. It is estimated that the 1932 canned peach pack will be about 6^2 million cases, a pack 23 per cent less than last year’s small output. Total stocks of canned peaches on September 17 were less than on October 1 of either 1931 or 1930, despite a larger carryover this year than in either of the two preceding years. Although actual data are not yet available, trade journals report a small pack of good quality canned apricots. The Cali fornia pack of canned asparagus was reduced to 1,313,237 cases this year, a smaller quantity than in any year since 1922. The August increase in output of flour was of more than seasonal proportions. Stocks held by reporting mills remained about the same as in the preceding month and were somewhat larger than a year ago. Millers’ stocks of wheat increased, as is customary during August. Trade The value of department store sales increased slightly more than is usual from July to August. This increase was almost entirely the result of larger sales in Los Angeles, where the Olympic Games doubtless stimulated buying. Stores in other District cities reported little change or R E T A I L T R A D E — T w elfth D istrict Percentage changes in value o f sales and stock s with no adjustm ent fo r p rice changes t --------------- 1932 com pared w ith 1931---------------- s ,------------N E T S A L E S ------------ > STOCKS January 1 to end A u gu st o f A u gust A u gust D e p a r tm e n t S to r e s . . . — 23.8 ( 6 9 ) — 24.7 ( 6 6 ) — 25.6 (5 3 ) L o s A n g e le s .............. — 18.4 ( 9) — 24.2 ( 9 ) — 26.8 ( 8 ) O th e r S o u th e rn C alif. — 27.8 ( 9 ) — 26.3 ( 8 ) — 27.0 ( 7 ) O a k la n d ........................ — 24.2 ( 4) — 22.3 ( 4 ) — 33.7 ( 4 ) S a n F r a n c i s c o ............ — 23.6 ( 7) — 20.4 ( 7) — 19.4 ( 7) O th e r N o r th e r n C alif. — 24.3 ( 8) — 21.9 ( 8 ) — 22.0 ( 8 ) — 32.3 ( 6 ) — 36.5 ( 7) Portland! ................... — 34.0 ( 7 ) S ea ttle ...........................— 28.3 ( 5) — 31.1 ( 5 ) — 25.6 ( 5) S p o k a n e ........................ — 26.3 ( 4) — 22.8 ( 4 ) — 20.3 ( 4 ) S a lt L a k e C i t y ..........— 36.3 ( 4) — 25.3 ( 4 ) — 14.8 ( 3 ) A p p a r e l S t o r e s ............... — 32.4 ( 2 5 ) — 25.3 ( 2 3 ) — 26.2 (1 5 ) — 30.0 ( 3 3 ) — 23.5 (2 6 ) F u rn itu r e S to r e s ..........— 32.4 ( 3 4 ) A ll S t o r e s ........................... — 2 5 .4 (1 2 8 ) — 25.4 (1 2 2 ) — 25.3 (9 4 ) f ln c l u d e s fiv e a p p arel s to r e s w h ic h are n o t in c lu d e d in D is tr ic t d ep a rtm e n t s t o r e total. F ig u r e s in pa re n th e se s in d ica te n u m b e r o f s to re s r e p o r tin g . N o t e : T h e s e fig u re s ta k e n o a c c o u n t o f o p e r a tin g c o s ts. slight declines in sales value, after seasonal adjustment. As compared with last year, value of sales declined 24 per cent, while the number of sales transactions, an indicator of the volume of goods moved, was but 5 per cent smaller in August, 1932, than in August, 1931. Merchan dise inventories of reporting stores were re duced further during August to the smallest September, 1932 value since records were begun in 1919. Stocks usually increase during August in anticipation of greater activity during the remaining months of the year. Retail prices at department stores, as measured by the Fairchild retail price index, decreased only 3^ per cent between August 1 and September 1, the smallest decline during any month since January, 1931, when these data first became available regularly. PER CENT 1301 _ » J-A/ V \ A V ' V. I D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S - T w e l f t h D istrict In d ex adjusted fo r seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100). Wholesale sales were 23.3 per cent lower in value in August, 1932, than in August, 1931, a year-period decrease smaller than that for July, but approximately equal to the average reduction during the past eight months. Most lines of activity showed moderate gains from July to August, reflecting principally two more trading days in the later month. W H O L E S A L E T R A D E — T w e lfth D istrict Percentage changes in value o f sales w ith :nt fo r p rice changes A u gu st, 1932 t ------- com pared w ith---------* A g r ic u ltu r a l Im p le m e n ts A u t o m o b ile S u p p lie s . . . . D r u g s ....................................... D r y G o o d s ........................... E le c t r ic a l S u p p l i e s ............ F u rn itu r e ............................... G ro c e r ie s ............................... H a r d w a r e ............................... S h o e s ....................................... P a p e r and S ta tio n e r y . . . . A ll L in e s ................................ N o te : J u ly ,1932 . . — 17.4 7.1 10.0 39.6 2.1 34.7 1.7 5.9 19.5 8.8 A u g ., 1931 — 25.9 — 21.9 — 19.9 — 32.2 — 41.2 — 46.6 — 14.5 — 27.2 — 29.3 — 19.7 — 23.3 C um u lative 1932 com pared w ith 1931 — 38.8 — 20.1 — 20.4 — 35.8 — 45.1 — 37.3 — 18.2 — 30.7 — 32.0 — 20.8 — 26.8 T h e s e fig u re s tak e n o a c c o u n t o f o p e r a tin g c o s ts. A rise during August in intercoastal trade was contrary to seasonal experience of most other recent years. While the volume of At lantic to Pacific cargoes receded (following a sharp advance in July), the decline was more than offset by increased eastbound traffic through the Panama Canal. Both lumber and petroleum shipments were substantially larger in August than in July. August registrations of new automobiles re mained practically unchanged from the preced ing month. In neither July nor August of this year were registrations equal in number to those in June, although there has customarily been a decided increase following that month. September, 1932 federal reserve agent at san francisco District freight carloadings increased during August, but by less than the seasonal amount. This Bank's adjusted index of total loadings at 52 (1923-25 average = 100) was 27 per cent lower than in August, 1931. Neither industrial carloadings nor loadings of merchandise and miscellaneous freight increased as much as has been usual in past years between July and August. Prices The advance in commodity prices which be gan in June continued during August and early September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly index of wholesale commodity prices, which advanced from 63.9 in June (1926 = 100) to 64.5 in July, reached 65.2 in August, thus showing the first advance for two consecutive months since July, 1929. The figure for August, 1931, was 72.1. The monthly index of farm prices compiled by the United States Depart ment of Agriculture increased from 52 (August, 1909-July, 1914 — 100) in June to 59 in August. As is usual, District market conditions were quite similar to those in the country as a whole. Quotations for fresh fruits and vegetables de clined during August and the first half of Sep tember, but stable or increasing prices for field crops, grains, dried and canned fruits, and ani mal products resulted in a continued increase in agricultural prices as a whole. Grain prices fluctuated during August at somewhat higher levels than in July but decreased moderately in mid-September. Most field crops increased in price during late August and early September. An advance of 3 cents per pound in cotton prices during August was partly offset by de clines at the month-end and in the second week D is t r ib u t io n a n d T ra d e — ,-------------- 1932---------------- v ,---------- 1931----------- v A u g. July June M a y A u g . July June In dexes adjusted fo r seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100)-----1 f -------C a rloa d in g s^ 78 72 81 55 52 57 55 T o t a l ........................... 101 97 74 75 74 85 M e r ch a n d is e ............ 68 F o r e ig n Trade® T o t a l t ........................ I m p o r t s ! .................... E x p o rts ................... In t e r c o a s ta l T r a d e T o t a l ........................... W e s t b o u n d ............... E a s tb o u n d ............... 45 39 48 45 42 47 46 41 49 77 61 83 78 64 83 72 54 76 49 61 47 45 72 39 51 57 50 54 66 50 65 82 62 59 85 53 73 83 69 R e ta il T r a d e A u to m o b ile Sales$ T o t a l ...................... P a sse n g e r ............ C o m m e r c ia l . . . . 29 28 48 30 28 50 47 45 71 32 30 59 56 49 97 67 62 110 75 69 124 D e p a r tm e n t S to re S a le s { ................... S to c k s § ................. 73 63 72 67 74 70 100 70 72 87 Á 1 T*** A ctual Figures 100 87 102 89 C o lle c tio n s # R e g u la r ............ I n s ta llm e n t . . . B a n k D e b it s * A r iz o n a P h o e n ix 38.6 14.4 39.2 13.4 40.1 13.8 40.4 13.7 41.2 15.9 ............ C a lifo rn ia B a k e rsfie ld ......... B e r k e le y ............ F r e s n o .............. L o n g B e a ch L o s A n g e le s . ... O a k la n d ............ . P a sa d e n a ............ S a cra m e n to S an B e r n a rd in o . San D i e g o .......... San F r a n c is c o . . San J o s e ............ San ta B a rb a ra . . S t o c k t o n .............. $ 14,792 $ 24,802 t — First eight m o n th s—\ 1931 1932 $ 168,622 $ 249,164 6,390 11,144 11,855 21,732 504,934 136,968 17,029 34,626 4,907 29,210 630,539 13,877 7,238 11,676 8,966 15,802 20,676 34,804 716,606 169,576 25,484 49,848 7,728 43,703 902,183 23,780 12,182 15,424 59,661 116,183 120,942 216,637 4,560,045 1,322,489 177,512 312,414 49,433 279,500 5,327,066 128,561 74,900 105,239 85,304 133,650 171,932 333,704 6,527,413 1,509,114 246,770 377,591 70,520 388,520 7,912,830 196,194 104,838 140,156 9,913 13,178 82,178 104,126 7,339 10,699 61,595 81,261 .............. 3,131 88,893 4,833 130,929 31,243 798,661 43,961 1,153,770 Salt L a k e C i t y . . 7,990 34,962 14,268 53,594 69,5 97 341,095 112,891 477,998 4,283 4,498 122,175 24,397 17,753 5,968 6,244 8,196 172,354 37,216 29,595 10,063 37,644 44,326 1,051,816 224,609 172,430 60,881 54,381 74,533 1,582,330 332,670 269,846 94,870 N evada O reg on U ta h W a s h in g t o n B e llin g h a m E v e re tt ............... i 42.3 15.3 A u g. 1931 A u g. 1932 Idaho 42.7 15.3 {D a i l y avera g e . ° In d e x e s are fo r three m o n th s e n d in g w ith m o n th in d ica ted . t E x c lu d in g raw silk. §A t end o f m o n th . # P e r ce n t o f co lle c tio n s d u r in g m o n th to a m o u n t o u ts ta n d in g at first o f m o n th . of September. Potato, bean, and hay prices rose during August, a reversal of the downward trend which had been apparent for these prod ucts since early spring. Prices paid for apples, pears, plums, oranges, and grapes in local and eastern markets were lower during August, 1932, than in July, 1932, or August, 1931. Quota tions on canned pineapple advanced on Septem ber 5. Raisins sold lower in the last half of August and early September, but prices for other dried fruits increased. Opening prices for the 1932 almond crop were substantially the same as opening prices last year. Egg prices advanced about 25 per cent at Pacific Coast markets during late August and early September. Butter prices remained un changed. Cattle and lamb prices at Pacific Coast markets changed little during August, while hog prices lost most of the gains made during July. Quotations on wool advanced 25 per cent during August. Non-ferrous metal prices increased during August and early September. Quotations for lumber in the Pacific Northwest and for crude petroleum in California were maintained dur ing August at approximately the same levels as in July. In late August the retail price of third grade gasoline was reduced in principal District consuming markets. Prices for other important commodities, such as rubber, coffee, silk, tin, cottonseed oil, sugar, and hides, produced or used in the District generally increased. P o r tla n d r"~ 69 Spok ane T a com a _______ T o t a l ............... ............... ............ $ 1,788,219 * I n th o u sa n d s o f dolla rs. $2,562,733 $15,995,279 $22,830,337 70 MONTHLY REVIEWOF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Credit Situation The issuance of relatively large amounts of new national bank notes by national banks was an important factor contributing to the easing of credit in this area during August and early September. Additional banking funds were also made available by the allotment of a substantial amount of United States Treasury securities to Twelfth District banks on September 15. A considerable part of these securities was paid for by deposit credit and sold for cash outside the District before the Treasury had drawn on the deposit created by the original sale. During the five weeks ended September 21 there was little change in time or net demand deposits at reporting member banks, but a small amount of gold was acquired for local account. These factors enabled city member banks to meet de mands for currency and an adverse balance of payments through the gold settlement fund while reducing their borrowings at the Reserve Bank. On the other hand, country bank bor rowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco did not decrease as much be tween July and August as has been customary in past years, indicating somewhat less than the seasonal easing of credit in country areas. S U P P L Y O F A N D D E M A N D F O R B A N K IN G F U N D S T w elfth D istrict Ch anges betw een A u gu st 17 and Septem ber 21, 1932 (in millions of dollars) Supply M o n e t a r y g o ld s t o c k . . . . .8 T reasu ry o p e r a t io n s .... 20.2 R e s e r v e b a n k c r e d it ..........— 19.0 D is c o u n t s ..........— 20.3 A c c e p t a n c e s . . . — • .7 2.0 O t h e r ................... T o ta l D em and D em a n d fo r c u r r e n c y ... M e m b e r b a n k re s e r v e d e p o s its .................................. U n e x p e n d e d c a p ita l fu n d s, n o n -m e m b e r d e p o sits, e t c ...........................................- 2.0 .3 2.0 T ota l During August, District security markets were more active than in nearly a year, with con sistent price advances in most active local stocks. At this time of year and in immediately fol lowing months funds usually begin to move into the Twelfth District from most other parts of the country as fruits, grains, and other DisF E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F SA N F R A N C IS C O (In millions of dollars) T o t a l B ills an d S e c u r itie s .......... B ills D is c o u n t e d ......................... B ills B o u g h t .................................. U n ite d States S e c u r i t i e s .......... T o t a l R e s e r v e s .................................. T o t a l D e p o s it s .................................. F ed era l R e s e r v e N o te s in C ir c u la tio n ....................................... R a tio o f T o t a l R e s e r v e s t o D e p o s it and N o te L ia b ilitie s C o m b in e d ....................................... Sept.21, 1932 185 59 3 123 210 146 235 55.1 Sept. 14, A u g. 17, Sept. 23, 1932 1931 1932 101 206 200 79 27 74 20 3 3 54 123 123 201 207 321 146 144 185 239 52.3 250 52.4 219 79.5 trict crops and products are shipped to markets outside the District. In accordance with this normal tendency the balance of payments with all reserve districts in the United States except September, 1932 New York was seasonally favorable to the Twelfth District during the five weeks ended September 21. Total payments to and by this District during this period were dominated, however, by transactions with New York, which primarily reflect financial operations having little immediate relationship to the com modity trade balance of the western states. These transfers, which do not have the same seasonal movements as those with other dis tricts, were unfavorable, resulting in a net loss of approximately 5 million dollars through R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S —T w elfth D istrict (in millions of dollars) f ------------------- C o n d it io n ------- ----------- % L o a n s an d In v e s tm e n ts — T o t a l . . L o a n s — T o t a l ............................... O n S e c u r i t i e s ............................. A ll O t h e r .................................... In v e s tm e n ts — T o t a l ................... U n ite d S tates S e cu ritie s . . . O th e r ^S ecu rities ...................... R e s e r v e w ith R e s e rv e B a n k . . . . N e t D e m a n d D e p o s i t s ................... T im e D e p o s its .................................. D u e fro m B a n k s ............................... D u e to B a n k s .................................... B o r r o w in g s a t R e s e r v e B a n k . . Sept.21. Sept. 14, A u g . 17, S e p t.23, 1932 1931 1932 1932 1,894 1,728 1,735 1,726 1,171 994 1,000 993 244 248 318 245 752 853 749 749 742 732 728 723 411 402 397 366 357 331 330 331 88 85 101 85 557 559 687 571 880 879 984 875 139 147 156 147 171 173 164 198 43 58 21 61 the gold settlement fund (excluding gold im ported through San Francisco and Seattle for eastern account) during the five weeks ending September 21. Currency circulation in the Twelfth District was practically unchanged between August 17 and September 21, although there is usually an increase at that time of year. This stability in dicates a decrease in hoarding, a conclusion given support by the fact that the amount of gold paid to the public during the five weeks ended September 21 was smaller than the amount of gold returned by the public, a move ment in contrast with that in evidence earlier this year. During this period, however, national bank note circulation expanded rapidly, replac ing moderate amounts of other forms of Treas ury currency as well as of Federal reserve notes. (See page 72.) On September 15 the United States Treasury allotted 43 million dollars of 3*4 per cent Treas ury notes and 20 millions of 1%. per cent cer tificates of indebtedness to banks in this District. These allotments were 6 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, of the total amount borrowed through these issues from the entire country. Banks paid for these securities by sur rendering 26 million dollars of maturing Gov ernment obligations and by crediting the Treasury with deposits of 33 million dollars, 29 million dollars of which remained in the subscribing banks on September 21. As al ready pointed out, the sale of part of the new securities for cash outside the District tended to decrease the need of borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank to provide funds for individual payments to other districts and was, September, 1932 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO in fact, an important factor in making possible small reductions in outstanding discounts. The number of banks borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco de creased less than is customary between July, the month when country discounts are usually largest, and August. The number of banks borrowing during July was the largest since 1924 and the ratio of borrowing banks to all member banks during that month was larger than at any time since 1921. From July to the end of the year the number of borrowing insti tutions usually decreases about 50 per cent, chiefly as a result of liquidation of discounts by country banks. Principally because of the failure of a group of affiliated banks in Idaho and eastern Oregon in late August, the number of banks closing their doors in this District was considerably larger between mid-August and mid-September than in the preceding month. There were 12 failures in Idaho, 3 in Oregon, and 2 in Wash ington, between August 17 and September 21. Bank credit in Idaho has declined during most years since 1920, although there was some ex pansion during the period from 1925 to 1928., Loans and discounts of banks in that state are 71 currently less than 30 million dollars, compared with an amount approximately equal to the average for the seven pre-War years, 1909-1915, inclusive, and a total of 107 million dollars on June 30, 1920. The extremely high level of 1920 came about largely because of the great expan sion of agriculture, livestock raising, and min ing during the World War when credit was extended by local banks upon enterprises which proved not to be self-sustaining after the un usual war time demand and prices for foods and metals had subsided. Since 1920, the propor tion of total resources of Idaho banks repre sented by loans has declined more or less continuously, while an increasing proportion of funds has been placed in investments. During 1920 total loans were 104 per cent of total deposits, compared with 50 per cent at the close of 1931. The turnover of shares on the stock ex changes of the District was greater during August than at any time since September, 1931. Price increases were recorded in nearly all of the locally traded stocks during August and the first week in September. As at national markets, however, prices fluctuated irregularly after September 8 . R e ce n t Issues o f N a tio n a l B a n k Notes in the Twelfth F e d e ra l R eserve D istrict The amount of circulating notes of Twelfth District national banks has increased consid erably since July, 1932, in which month Con gress authorized for a three-year period the use of all issues of Government bonds bearing not more than 3% per cent interest as collateral to secure national bank notes. This form of cur rency, which is secured 100 per cent by United States Government bonds and against which a 5 per cent redemption fund in lawful money must be maintained with the Treasurer of the United States, may be issued by a national bank to an amount not greater than its paid in capi tal. Prior to July, the practical limitation upon the amount of national bank notes outstanding was the volume of Government bonds eligible to secure such notes, whereas the effective lim iting factor now is the amount of paid in capital of national banks. New Twelfth District issues of these notes, excluding those issued in replacement of worn notes withdrawn from circulation because of unfit condition, totaled about 30 million dollars between July 27 and September 21. During 1929, 1930, and 1931, the net increase in note liability of Twelfth District national banks was 17 million dollars. The actual amount of new notes issued during those years was somewhat larger than that net figure, since some notes were retired, either because certain banks vol untarily gave up the circulation privilege, or because notes of insolvent banks were re deemed. (When a national bank fails, it must deposit lawful money with the United States Treasury to redeem such notes as it may have outstanding when they are presented.) N A T I O N A L B A N K N O T E S —T w elfth D istrict (in thousands of dollars) N e w N otes N o te Liability N otes Issued Increased R e tired f 1929 8,100 4,800 3,300 1930 7,000 3,400 3,600 1931 13,000 3,000 10,000 1932-—Jan. 1-June 3 0 . . . 7,400 4,900 2,500 * J u ly 1-S ept. 21 . . . . , 30,900 ____ * *These? data are a v a ila b le o n ly o n re g u la r ca ll r e p o r t d a t e s ; it is p r o b a b le , h o w e v e r, th at th e am o u n t o f n o te s re tire d sin ce J u n e 30 has b e e n less than o n e m illio n d o lla rs, in d ica tin g a net increase? o f a p p ro x im a te ly 30 m illio n d o lla rs in n o te lia b ility . fF ig u r e s in this c o lu m n are de riv e d b y d e d u c t in g the in cre a se in n o te lia b ility (c o lu m n 2 ) fro m th e a m o u n t o f n ew n o te s is su e d (c o lu m n 1 ). As shown in the preceding table, the increase since June 30, 1932, in national bank notes out standing in this area has been greater than the net increase between December 31, 1928, and June 30,1932. At the end of June, total liability of national banks in the Twelfth District for outstanding national bank notes was approxi mately 79 million dollars, compared with a paid in capital of 183 million dollars. Thus banks had issued circulating notes to 43 per cent of 72 the maximum permitted by law and had the legal right to place an additional 104 million dollars of notes in circulation before the maxi mum was reached, provided proper security to serve as collateral were made available. While paid in capital remained practically unchanged between June 30 and September 21, during which period additional security was made available, the note liability increased to ap proximately 109 million dollars or 60 per cent of the total authorized by law. Because of their larger capital, national banks in San Francisco and Los Angeles have the ability to issue greater amounts of notes than have banks in other parts of the District, and on June 30, 1932, banks in those two cities accounted for approximately half the total national bank note circulation of the Twelfth District. They had not, however, availed themG A P IT A L A N D N O T E C IR C U L A T IO N O F N A T IO N A L B A N K S —T w elfth D istrict of P ossible N o te P ossible P ossible Issue Increase D istrict in N o te s In crease O utst ng 49.7 .5 528 t — In thousands of d o lla rs -----\ C apital Paid In A r iz o n a * 1,050 T o t a l ................. C a lifo rn ia 40,500 L o s A n g e le s . . . 1,700 O a k la n d . . . . . . 75,900 S a n F r a n c is c o . 20,543 O th e r ................. Idaho 2,150 T o t a l ................. N ev a d a 1,500 T o t a l ................. O reg on 7,100 P o r tla n d .......... 5,880 O th e r ................. U ta h 500 O g d e n ............... 1,850 S alt L a k e C it y . 625 O th e r ................. W a s h in g t o n 13,300 S eattle ............... 2,000 Spokane .......... 8,265 O th e r ................. 182,863 T w e lft h D is t r ic t .. N o te Liability 522 32,749 200 44,750 9,905 31.5 .2 43.0 9.5 19.1 88.2 41.0 51.8 1,453 697 .7 67.5 1,242 258 .2 82.8 6,400 3,271 700 2,609 .7 2.5 90.1 55.6 500 1,794 370 0 56 255 .0 .1 .2 100.0 97.0 59.2 5,872 1,989 4,403 78,855 7,428 11 3,862 104,008 7.2 .0 3.7 100.0 44.2 99.5 53.3 43.1 7,751 1,500 31,150 10,638 * D o e s n o t in c lu d e five so u th e a s te rn c o u n tie s E le v e n th F e d e ra l R e s e r v e D is tr ic t. w h ic h of the currency customarily withdrawn for week-end spending is returned to the banks by the following Wednesday. Additional national bank notes issued during the past two months has to some extent ob viated the need for further borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and insofar as it has been in excess of the amounts paid over the counter to depositors, has proC H A N G E S I N C I R C U L A T I O N O F M O N E Y - T w e l f t h D istrict (in thousands of dollars) W e e k ending 1932 T otal J u ly 1 3 ............ — 5,090 2 0 — 996 2 7 ............ — 3,306 A u gu st 3 ............ 7,139 1 0 ............ ........ 240 986 1 7 ............ — 2 4 ............ — 981 3 1 ............ 7,579 S ep t. 7 ............ 1,185 1 4 ............ — 4,984 2 1 — 2,419 N et ch an ge— J u ly 7-S ep t. 2 1 . . — 2,619 N a t’ l B ank N o te s 20 0 0 883 2,477 4,010 7,419 9,482 137 4,047 2,446 30,921 F e d ’ l R eserve N o te s — 3,453 — 602 — 2,691 5,848 — 1,649 — 2,827 — 4,530 — 1,037 — 54 — 5,664 — 4,077 O ther — 1,657 — 394 — 615 408 — 588 — 2,169 — 3,870 — 866 1,102 — 3,367 — 788 — 20,7 3 6 — 12,804 vided the banks with funds to repay rediscounts. In this manner and to the extent of the new issues credit of the United States Treasury, through the issuance of national bank notes which are secured by Government bonds, has replaced credit of the Reserve Bank. This Treasury credit costs the issuing bank less than does Federal reserve credit obtained by dis- are in the selves of the privilege to as great an extent, relatively, as had other banks. As a result, at the time additional issues of Government bonds were made eligible as collateral for note cir culation, banks in San Francisco and Los An geles had the option of issuing 75 per cent of the total possible increase in circulation of this currency in the District. These comparisons are shown in the accompanying table. Since late in July, when the present vol ume of new issues of national bank notes com menced, increases in that form of currency have not only accounted for all of the increase in total circulation of money in the District, but they have also displaced to a small extent other forms of money, including other Treasury cur rency and Federal reserve notes. Changes in total circulation and in each of the components discussed are shown in the accompanying chart. Maximum fluctuations are not reflected in this series of Wednesday figures since part September, 1932 MONTHLY REVIEWOF BUSINESS CONDITIONS D E M A N D F O R C U R R E N C Y — T w elfth D istrict Changes cum ulated from July 6, 1932. counting, since instead of paying the discount rate (3 y 2 per cent at the present time) there is only a small annual tax plus costs of printing and issuing the notes, and loss of interest on the 5 per cent redemption fund. In the past, these costs have averaged less than 1 per cent per year. While all national banks can issue notes, it is obvious that the incentive to use the privilege granted by the recently amended law is greater in the case of borrowing banks, particularly those already holding Government securities now made available as the basis for further issues of national bank notes. MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S IN E S S C O N D IT IO N S I S A A C B . N E W T O N , C h a irm an o f th e B o a r d an d F ed era l R e s e r v e A g e n t F e d e r a l R e se r v e B a n k o f San F ra n cisco Supplement San Francisco, California, September 20, 1932 Vol. XVI No. 9 SU M M ARY OF N A T IO N A L CONDITIONS Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board Volume of industrial production increased from July to August by considerably more than the usual seasonal amount, reflecting chiefly ex pansion in activity at textile mills. Wholesale prices advanced during August and the general level prevailing in the first three weeks of Sep tember was somewhat higher than in other recent months. There was a further growth in the country’s stock of monetary gold and a non-seasonal return flow of currency to the re serve banks. Production and Employment. Industrial out put increased substantially in August and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index showed an advance from 58 to 60 per cent of the 1923-1925 average. Activity at cotton, woolen, silk, and rayon mills increased from the low level of other recent months by considerably more than the usual seasonal amount, and there was also a substantial increase in activity at shoe fac tories. Output of automobiles, however, de clined further and production in the steel and lumber industries showed none of the usual seasonal increase in August. During the first three weeks of September there was a slight ad vance in steel output. Employment at factories increased slightly more than is usual at this season. There were PER CENT PER IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N Index numbers of industrial production adjusted for seasonal varia* tions (1923-1925 average=100). large additions to working forces in the textile, clothing, and leather industries, while in the automobile, tire, and machinery industries and at car building shops the number employed de creased further. Aggregate wage payments in creased less than seasonally. Building contracts awarded up to Septem ber 15, as reported by the F. W . Dodge Cor poration, indicate that for the third quarter the total value of contracts will be about the same as for the second quarter, whereas usually awards for the third quarter are smaller. Cur rently, contracts for public works are a con siderably larger part of the total than they were at the beginning of the year and residential contracts are a smaller part. Department of agriculture crop estimates based on September 1 conditions indicate little change in prospects during August. Indicated crops of wheat and tobacco are considerably smaller than in other recent years, while the corn crop is the largest since 1925. The cotton crop is estimated at 11,300,000 bales, a decrease of about 6,000,000 bales from the large crop of a year ago. Distribution. Volume of merchandise and other freight handled by the railroads increased seasonally during August, while during the cor CENT FACTORY EM PLO YM EN T AN D PAYROLLS Indexes of factory employment and payrolls, without adjustment for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average=100). responding period a year ago no increase was reported. Department store sales of merchan dise increased from July to August by some what less than the usual seasonal amount. Wholesale Prices. Wholesale commodity prices advanced from 64.5 per cent of the 1926 average in July to 65.2 per cent in August, according to the monthly index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. During August, prices of many leading commodities, including textile raw materials and finished products, wheat, reserve balances, which at the present time are more than $300,000,000 in excess of required reserves. Reserve bank holdings of United States Government Securities and of accept ances remained practically unchanged during the four weeks ending September 14, while the total of reserve bank credit declined by $43,000,000 through the reduction of discounts for member banks. Loans and investments of reporting member banks in leading cities showed little change be- PER CENT — y rAL \ s R E S ID E N T IA L _ 1927 1928 1929 . . . i ____________ i . 1930 . 1931 : 1932 V A L U E O F B U IL D IN G C O N T R A C T S A W A R D E D In dexes based on th ree-m on th m oving averages o f F . W . D o d g e data fo r 37 Eastern states, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923 -1925 average = 100). hides, non-ferrous metals, sugar, rubber, and coffee, increased substantially. In the first half of September there were declines in the prices of many of these commodities, while prices of wool and woolen goods, cattle, and hides advanced. Bank Credit. During recent weeks further growth in monetary gold stock, a return flow of currency from hoards, and new issues of na tional bank notes have resulted in additions to the reserve funds of member banks. These banks have employed a part of the funds in further reducing their borrowings at the re serve banks and have accumulated a part as F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K C R E D IT A N D P R IN C IP A L F A C T O R S IN C H A N G E S M on th ly averages o f daily figures. Latest figures are averages o f first 21 days in Septem ber. tween the middle of August and the middle of September. A further decline of more than $150,000,000 in loans by banks outside New York City during the past four weeks was offset in large part by continued increase in invest ment holdings, chiefly at member banks in New York City. There was a considerable growth in deposits of reporting member banks reflecting in part larger balances held by city banks for the account of other banks. Money rates in the open market remained unchanged at low levels during August and the first half of September.