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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
ISAAC B. NEWTON, Chairman o f the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X IV
San Francisco, California, September 20,1930
No. 9
SU M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Industrial production as a whole was in the
same volume in August as in July, contrary to
the usual upward trend at this season, al
though there were seasonal increases in activ
ity in a number of basic industries. Factory
employment and payrolls declined further. The
general level of com m odity prices at wholesale,
which had declined continuously for a year,
remained unchanged between July and August,
advances in price being reported for certain
important agricultural staples.
Production. The Board's index of industrial
production, which makes allowance for sea
sonal variations, continued to decline in A u
gust. Production of automobiles, pig iron,
lumber, and sugar decreased, and there was a
reduction in the consumption of cotton and
wool. In the bituminous coal and silk indus
tries, there was less increase than is usual at
this season, while in the steel, cement, flour,
and shoe industries the increase was slightly
more than seasonal. During the first two
weeks of September, activity at steel plants in
creased, while a further reduction in output of
automobiles was reported. Building contracts
awarded, as reported to the F. W . D odge Cor
poration, were in slightly smaller volume dur
ing August, largely on account of reductions in
educational and industrial construction proj
ects. Residential building contracts continued
PER CENT
small. During the first two weeks in Septem
ber, awards averaged about the same as in
August.
A t the middle of August, the latest date for
which figures are available, the number of wage
earners employed in factories and the volume
of factory payrolls was smaller than in the
middle of July. There were decreases in em
ployment in the iron and steel and cotton tex
tile industries, and at foundries and machine
shops, automobile plants, and sawmills. Sub
stantial seasonal increases occurred in the can
ning and preserving, bituminous coal mining,
and clothing industries.
Agriculture. September 1 estimates by the
Department of Agriculture indicate a corn crop
of 1,983,000,000 bushels, about 700,000,000
bushels less than the five-year average ; a spring
wheat crop of 240,000,000 bushels, slightly
larger than last year's unusually small crop,
making the total wheat crop about equal to the
five-year average; and a crop of oats of about
the usual size. Condition of pastures on Septem
ber first was reported to be unusually poor. The
cotton crop is expected to be about 14,340,000
bales, nearly one-half million bales less than
last year.
Distribution. Volum e of freight shipped by
rail increased by slightly less than the seasonal
amount during August. Sales of department
PER CEN T
IN D U S T R IA L P R O D U C T IO N
FA CTO R Y EM PLO YM EN T AN D PAYROLLS
Index number of production of manufactures and minerals, combined,
adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average =100).
Latest figure, August, 92.
In d ex num bers ©f factory em ploym ent and payrolls, w ithout adjust*
ment for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100). Latest
figures, A u gust, em ploym ent 83.8, payrolls 80.9.
66
M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
stores were larger than in July, but continued
considerably smaller than a year ago.
W holesale prices. There were increases dur
ing August in prices of many agricultural
products, especially meats, livestock, and
grains, while the price of cotton decreased.
Prices of mineral and forest products and of
imported raw materials and their manufactures
in general declined with the principal excep
tion of silk. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’
PER CENT
S ep tem ber, 1930
on securities, while all other loans, which in
clude loans for commercial purposes, declined,
contrary to the seasonal trend. The volume of
reserve bank credit outstanding showed a
growth for the period, as is usual at this season,
but the increase was relatively small ow ing to
the fact that the seasonal demand for currency
was smaller than in other recent years and
owing to an addition of 15 million dollars to
the country’s stock of gold. The increase was
B IL L IO N S
OF
D O LLARS
W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S
M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT
In d exes o f U n ited States Bureau of L a bor Statistics (1926=100, base
adopted b y B u rea u ). Latest figures, A u gu st, farm products
84.9, foo d s 87.1, other com m od ities 83.3.
M on th ly averages o f w e e k ly figures for reporting m em ber banks in
leading cities. Latest figures are averages o f first tw o
w ee k s in A u gu st.
index of wholesale prices showed no change
from the preceding month. During the first
half of September, there were pronounced de
clines in prices of wheat, corn, hogs, pork, and
rubber. Prices of cotton and woolen textiles
remained fairly stable, while those of hides and
coffee increased.
Bank Credit. Between August 20 and Sep
tember 17 there was an increase in member
bank holdings of investments and in their loans
in holdings of acceptances, offset in part by a
further decline in discounts for member banks
to the lowest level since 1917. M oney rates
continued at low levels during August and the
first half of September and the yield on highgrade bonds declined further. Discount rates
at the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and
Minneapolis, the only banks which had main
tained a four per cent rate, were reduced to
three and one-half per cent during September.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
The dominant note in Twelfth District busi
ness during' August was the lack of change—
that is to say, a large majority of the productive
and commercial activities showed only the nor
mal seasonal movements from July. O f the few
non-seasonal changes taking place more were
favorable than unfavorable for the first time in
several months. The excess of favorable de
velopments was so small, however, that busi
ness as a whole remained at substantially the
low levels recorded in July.
Some improvement was noticeable in the
agricultural situation during August. Harvest
ing progressed rapidly, favored with excellent
weather. Upward revisions in crop production
estimates were more numerous than were re
duced forecasts, ranges remained in good condi
tion except in eastern Oregon and W ashington
and western Idaho where dry weather caused
some decline, and the condition of livestock
continued satisfactory. Declines in butter
stocks found response in an appreciable in
crease in the price of that com m odity. E xcept
ing wheat prices, there were no important
declines in quotations for agricultural com
modities during August.
Figures on industrial activity suggested faint
improvement over the preceding month for the
first time since spring. Lumber output failed
to expand seasonally, but production of oil, cop
per, and cement was practically unchanged and
the output of flour increased. Building permits
issued increased slightly and construction
contract awards were at decidedly higher levels
than in July. Fruit canning was seasonally
active during August. The number of unem
ployed was slightly less than in July.
Consideration of the several measures of
trade activity discloses no developments dur
ing August which might indicate a change from
the low levels of other recent months. Depart
ment store sales and wholesale trade, although
far below last year, reached seasonal expecta
tions during August, and sales of new autom o
September, 1930
biles declined. Freight carloadings improved
seasonally and shipments from the east coast
through the Panama Canal showed a moderate
increase, although total intercoastal trade did
not exceed July volume.
For the first time in a year, according to most
indexes, average commodity prices have re
mained comparatively stable for four or five
weeks. W ith the addition of the wheat crop
now being harvested to the record carry-over
from last year, wheat prices tended irregularly
lower after the first week in August, reaching a
new post-war low in mid-September. Quota
tions on livestock increased slightly during
late August and hay prices advanced during
that month. Prices of lumber and copper de
clined slightly.
There were no noteworthy changes in the
credit situation between August 20 and Sep
tember 17 and money conditions remained
easy. Member bank loans to customers were
increased slightly, while investment holdings
of those banks showed virtually no change.
Minor declines in borrowings from the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco continued to
reduce the already small volume of discounts
o f that bank.
Agriculture
H arvesting of most of the District’s grain,
fruit, and field crops had been completed or
was nearing completion under favorable
weather conditions by mid-September. Yields
of grain and field crops have been greater than
was expected earlier in the season and Sep
tember 1 production estimates were revised
upwards. Livestock ranges in various parts of
the District, particularly in eastern Oregon and
W ashington and western Idaho, deteriorated
during August, but the condition of livestock
continued good. Scattered showers in the
wheat grow ing areas of the Pacific Northwest
have facilitated tillage operations and in some
sections fall wheat is being sown. Additional
rainfall is needed, however, to supplement the
deficient supplies of sub-soil moisture. W ith
the notable exception of citrus fruits, prices
received for nearly all agricultural products
now being marketed in the District are lower
than a year ago.
Estimates of the total production of wheat
in this District during 1930 were increased
three per cent during August, and September 1
forecasts indicate that the crop will be slightly
larger (one per cent) this year than last. Out
turn of spring wheat has been greater than was
anticipated earlier in the present harvest sea
son, the 1930 crop being nearly 20 per cent
larger than the 1929 crop. Exports of wheat
from Puget Sound and Columbia River ports
during July and August totaled 4,443,459
bushels, a nine per cent decrease from the
67
FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T SAN FRANCISCO
4,872,350 bushels exported during the same two
months in 1929. On August 15 farmers’ inten
tions to plant indicated that the acreage to be
sown to wheat in the District this autumn
would be 16 per cent greater than the acreage
seeded in the autumn of 1929, when planting
was restricted by a deficiency of soil moisture.
Production of barley is greater this year than it
was in 1929, but exports of barley from San
Francisco during July and August, 1930, were
60 per cent smaller in volume than in July and
August, 1929. The latest official estimates of
production of field crops show several impor
tant increases from estimates made as of A u
gust 1.
F IE L D A N D G R A IN C R O P S -P R O D U C T IO N
(In thousands)
F orecast
F orecast
1929
Sept. 1,1930 A u g . 1,1930
B e a n s ( b u .)
7,191
8,115
8,226
C a lifo rn ia , I d a h o
19,693
22,024
19,458
U n ite d S t a t e s ............ ..
C o tto n (b a le s )
386
413
383
A r iz o n a , C a lifo rn ia .
14,362
14,828
14,340
U n ite d S t a t e s ..............
H o p s ( lb s .)
18,360
33,220
C a lif., O re ., W a s h . . ,
21,720
18,360
33,220
21,720
U n ite d S t a t e s ..............
P o t a t o e s ( b u .)
45,014
44,577
39,268
T w e lfth D is t r ic t
372,557
359,796
339,278
U n ite d S t a t e s ..............
R ic e (bu .)_
6,270
6,222
6,160
C a lifo rn ia .....................
38,307
37,897
40,217
U n ite d S t a t e s ...............
T a m e H a y (t o n s )
T w e lfth D is tr ic t
14,773
14,354
14,414
U n ite d S t a t e s ..............
83,460
101,786
82,095
Sug:ar B e e ts (to n s )
1,547
1,607
C a lif., I d a h o , U ta h .
1,704
7,910
U n ite d S t a t e s ..............
8,217
7,318
B a rle y ( b u .)
T w e lfth D is t r ic t . , .
49,418
48,726
44,083
U n ite d S t a t e s ............ ..
322,700
306,215
303,552
O a ts ( b u .)
T w e lft h D is t r ic t
37,834
35,023
34,904
U n ite d S t a t e s .............. . 1,390,892 1,316,369 1,238,654
W h e a t ( b u .)
T w e lfth D is t r ic t . , .
111,132
114,574
113,720
U n ite d S t a t e s ............ ... . 837,761
772,323
805,790
Sou rce :
1928
6,959
17,656
321
14,478
32,944
32,944
47,512
465,350
8,171
43,240
14,568
93,351
1,572
7,101
46,358
357,487
35,230
1,439,407
125,746
914,876
U n ite d S tates D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e . »
Harvesting of the principal deciduous fruits
produced in the District excepting apples and
grapes is nearly complete. Apples and grapes
are now being marketed and carlot shipments
to eastern markets increased each week during
August and early September. Prices paid grow
ers for these fruits generally have been less
than a year ago but equal to or somewhat
higher than in 1928.
A P P L E S — P R O D U C T IO N
(in thousands of bushels)
F oreca st
C om m ercia l C ro p
Sept. 1, 1930
C a l i f o r n i a ...........................................
6,441
Id a h o ..................................................
3,708
O r e g o n ................................................
4,905
U ta h ....................................................
1,482
W a s h in g to n
....................................
28,881
T o t a l ................................................
U n ite d S t a t e s ..................................
Sou rce :
45,417
92,352
1929
4,413
4,950
2,250
720
24,900
37,237
87,033
1928
6,861
4,800
5,100
570
30,000
47,331
106,383
U n ite d S tates D e p a rtm e n t o f A g ricu ltu re .
The forthcoming crop of Navel oranges in
California is reported to be in excellent condi
tion and trade factors estimate that the 19301931 production of this fruit will be substan
tially larger than was the 1929-1930 crop, which
was estimated to have been 10,500,000 boxes.
68
M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Prices for oranges and lemons sold during A u
gust remained at relatively high levels. Be
tween M ay 1 and September 1 of this year
10,894 carloads of Valencia oranges were
shipped from California. During the same
period of 1929 shipments of that year’s Valen
cia orange crop, which was the largest on
record, totaled 20,768 carloads.
Continued improvement was evident in mar
ket conditions for dairy and poultry products
during August. Stored stocks of butter in the
United States declined further during the
month and on September 1 were 15 per cent
smaller than on the corresponding date in 1929.
Prices of both butter and eggs sold in Pacific
Coast markets advanced during August. A t
the same time, receipts of eggs and butter in
those markets increased and were larger than
in August, 1929.
The condition of livestock ranges improved
in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, but deteriorated
somewhat in other parts of the District during
August. A s in other recent months, livestock
remained in relatively better condition than
ranges. During recent months, unfavorable
marketing conditions are reported to have in
fluenced some cattle and sheep raisers tem
porarily to withhold their stock from the
market in anticipation of more favorable prices
in the future.
During August, Twelfth District markets re
ceived shipments of cattle from the R ocky
Mountain and W estern Great Plains regions
which normally would have been sent to midW estern markets. This movement was induced
by an abnormally small price differential be
tween local and mid-W estern livestock markets
which, in turn, was caused by an unusual in
crease in prices at Pacific Coast markets where
there was some scarcity of the better grades of
cattle. Recent cattle price increases have been
Ind u stry—
In d exes o f daily average p roduction, adjusted for seasonal variations
(1923-1925 daily average = 100)
z----------- 1930------------> 1929
G e n e r a l:
A u 2- Ju lv June A u ^C a rlo a d in g s — In d u s tr ia l ...........................
72
78
84
116
E le c t r ic P o w e r P r o d u c t i o n .............................
166
162
166
M a n u fa c t u r e s :
^
L u m b e r ...............................................................
76
81
90
110
R e fin e d M in era l O il s f ............................... 1751i
175
180
215
F lo u r .................................................................... 127
114
110
127
S la u g h te r o f L iv e s t o c k .............................
82
82
81
84
C em en t ...............................................................
93
94
92
100
W o o l C o n s u m p t i o n ! ..............................................
68
78
90
M in e ra ls :
__
_
_______
P e tr o le u m ( C a li f o r n ia ) ! ...........................
92
92
91
133
C o p p e r ( U n it e d S ta te s ) t ...........................
85
83
85
119
L e a d (U n it e d S t a t e s ) $ ......................................
..
••
108
S ilv e r (U n it e d S ta te s ) $ .............................
69
71
81
91
B u ild in g a n d C o n s tr u c t io n :
T o t a l ....................................................................
73
71
61
80
V a lu e o f B u ild in g P e r m its §
T w e n t y L a r g e r C ities ...........................
46
50
46
63
S e v e n ty S m a ller C itie s ........................
63
70
69
97
V a lu e o f E n g in e e r in g C o n tr a c ts
A w arded§
T o t a l .......................................................... 144
142
109
131
E x c lu d in g B u ild in g s ........................ 173
138
100
150
tN ot adjusted for seasonal variations. JPrepared by Federal Re
serve Board. § Indexes are for three months ending with
the month indicated. IfPreliminary.
S ep tem ber, 1930
greater in m id-W estern markets than in
Twelfth District markets, however, thus re
storing the price differential to more normal
levels and making such shipments unprofitable.
The number of sheep and lambs available for
market in the District this year is greater than
a year ago, but demand, particularly from midW estern feeder lamb markets, is inactive be
cause of the relatively high feed prices incident
to the recent drought. Since m id-W estern ship
ments usually constitute a large proportion of
the autumn movement of lambs from Idaho
and Utah, the present situation has resulted
in a larger volume of lamb receipts at Tw elfth
District markets this year than in 1929. Lamb
prices declined steadily in western markets
until late August, but remained relatively stable
during the three weeks preceding mid-Sep
tember.
Industry
Industrial activity in the Twelfth Federal
Reserve District remained at low levels during
August. There was little change in output of
oil, lumber, cement, or copper and the volume
of unemployment remained approximately the
same as in the previous month. The value of
building permits issued increased slightly in
the larger population centers and construction
contracts awarded, exclusive of those for com
mercial and industrial buildings, were in large
volume. A ctivity of flour mills expanded in
response to improved demand for flour from
both domestic and foreign markets. Fruit can
ning and drying were at high seasonal levels
during August.
The total value of construction increased
during August and was about the same as in
E m ploym ent—
C a liforn i a--------N o . of
N o . r - E m p loyees —>
of
A u g .,
A u g .,
1930
1929
F irm s
Industries
197,275 224,671
Industries* . . . . 764
( - 1 2 .2 )
S to n e , C la y a n d
48
5,952
7,553
G lass P r o d u c ts .
-2 1 .2 )
L u m b e r an d W o o d
19,843 25,997
M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 119
-2 3 .7 )
All
(-
.
17
f
(7,047
56
(-— 12.1)
■.
F o o d , B e v e ra g e s
9§
56,495
29,326
( 4 .2 )
28,146
70,831
87,907
30,515
— 16.1)
36,390
24
(■— 19.4)
(-
50
8,018
61,017
(8 .0 )
.
5
9
.
27
N o. of
N o.
of
F irm s
145
2,311
. 168
. 332
M is c e lla n e o u s ?
2,070
-1 0 .4 )
r~ ... — O r e g o n -
43
r~ E m ploy ees
A u g .,
1930
25,805
( -1 1 .1 )
A u g .,
1929
29,036
202
(5 7 .8 )
128
13,858
17,288
1,329
— 3 4 .6 )
2,032
464
( — 7 .2 )
500
4,438
(2 1 .2 )
3,661
( — 19.8)
(
•••
29
5,514
( 1 .6 )
5,427
* P u b lic u tilitie s n o t in c lu d e d in th is t o ta l. f E l e c t r i c ra ilw a y and
b u s o p e r a tio n s add ed. $ M o t io n p ic tu r e p r o d u c in g and d e v e lo p
in g a d d e d to this g r o u p . § L a u n d e r in g o n ly , f l n c l u d e s the
fo llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : m etals, m a c h in e r y an d c o n v e y a n c e s ;
le a th e r and ru b b e r g o o d s ; c h e m ic a ls , oils an d p a i n t s ; p r in t
in g an d p a p e r g o o d s .
Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from August,
1929.
S eptem ber, 1930
FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO
August, 1929. There is usually a small decrease
in the amount of new construction in the Dis
trict during August and the increase over July
of this year was contrary to the usual expec
tations. A small increase in building permits
issued in the larger cities in the District, to
gether with a large gain in the value of heavy
construction projects were the chief factors in
maintaining the volume of construction during
the month. Building permits issued in seventy
of the smaller cities in the District decreased
during August, whereas permits issued in those
cities had consistently shown month to month
increases earlier this year.
Curtailment of lumber output continued dur
ing August and the total number of board feet
produced was approximately the same as in
July. In recent years lumber output has in
creased substantially from July to August. In
the Douglas Fir region, which produces more
than half of the lumber output of the District,
curtailment was particularly evident, and both
orders and shipments exceeded production.
There was also some reduction o f output in
the W estern Pine, W hite Pine, and Redwood
lumber producing districts, although output
continued to exceed consumption. Mill stocks
of lumber as reported by the W est Coast Lum
berman's Association increased almost steadily
from the middle of 1929 to the end of May,
1930, since when they have declined nine per
cent. A t the end of August, however, those
stocks were still much larger (17 per cent) than
a year earlier. Similar figures of the W estern
Pine Manufacturer’s Association have moved
upward almost continuously since early last
year and at the end of August, 1930, were 26 per
cent greater than at the end of August, 1929.
PER
CENT
R E F IN E D O IL
P R O D U C T IO N
69
little change in stocks of that commodity. P ro
duction and consumption of petroleum and its
products are approximately in balance at the
present time, but the industry continues to
carry large stocks of all classes of oil.
Despite the exceptionally low price for cop
per, production of that metal increased some
what during August as compared with July,
but was still well below the levels of a year
ago. Demand remained inactive, as in previous
months, and stocks of refined copper continued
to increase. A further reduction in the price of
copper (to 10*4 cents per pound Connecticut
Valley) was recorded on September 15. Output
of silver was smaller than in July.
Production of flour mills of the District in
creased more than seasonally during August.
Both domestic and foreign demand was report
ed by most of the mills as improving although
the price remained at rather low levels.
In California canning fruit crops generally
have been larger this year than in 1929. Conse
quently the fruit canning industry has been
more active than it was a year ago, although the
size of the peach pack, which ordinarily consti
tutes from 50 to 75 per cent of the entire Cali
fornia canned fruit pack, has been restricted in
relation to the amount of peaches available for
canning purposes this year. The number of
workers employed in the industry during A u
gust was 19 per cent larger this year than last.
Average weekly wages paid to workers were
also greater this year than last, indicating that
longer hours were worked. The pack of cling
peaches, which has been practically completed,
is estimated to be about 12,635,280 cases, an
increase of 58 per cent over the exceptionally
small pack reported for 1929, when the peach
crop was badly damaged by frost, and 12 per
cent larger than the 1925-1927 average. In
contrast with the large peach pack, the volume
of apricots canned this year was exceptionally
small, being 52 per cent less than in 1929 and
30 per cent below the 1925-1927 average. F ig
ures of the 1930 packs of other fruits are not
yet available.
Trade
R E F IN E D O IL P R O D U C T IO N A N D G A S O L IN E
S T O C K S — C a liforn ia R efineries
In d exes o f daily average refined oil produ ction and gasoline sto ck s at
end of m onth. ( 1923-1925 average = 100).
There was little change in output of petro
leum and petroleum products during August.
Production of crude oil was the same in August
as in July. The amount of crude oil run to stills
was slightly less than in the preceding month,
but consumption of California gasoline fell off
somewhat more than is usual and there was
Trade activity during August showed little
or no improvement from the reduced levels of
recent months. Department store sales in
creased slightly more than the seasonal arqount
and the customary July-August changes in
wholesale trade were recorded. Seasonally
adjusted carloadings of revenue freight on
Twelfth District railroads increased slightly
and cargo shipped in the intercoastal trade
through the Panama Canal was the same in
volume as during July. Registrations of new
automobiles continued the decline noted during
most of the past year.
70
Reduced purchasing power of the public and
lower prices have been reflected more strongly
in the value of retail sales during the past two
months than at any previous time during the
current depression. Total monthly sales of re
porting* department, apparel, and furniture
stores were 11 per cent smaller in value in
August, 1930, than in August, 1929, partly be
cause there was one less trading day in August
this year. A m on g the larger department stores,
declines in sales were rather well distributed
PER CEN T
130
SA L E S
110
XA
\
V V
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STO CKS
90
1926
1927
1929
1928
1930
D E P A R T M E N T STORE SALES A N D STOCKS
Index numbers of daily average sales and of stocks at end of month
of department stores in the Twelfth District, adjusted for
seasonal variations (1923-1925 average^ 100).
in nearly all kinds of goods sold, but especially
large losses were reported in sales of silks and
velvets, ribbons, furniture, luggage, and w o
men’s coats, suits, and dresses. Sales increases
over the year period were reported in a few
departments such as gloves, sports wear, and
radio. Collections on regular charge accounts
declined slightly during August, while install
ment collections improved. Throughout the
Distribution and Trade —
------— 193 0- -------------s 1929
June
A u g.
July
A u g.
-In d e x N um bers*149
114
105
125
104
108
162
116
105
F o r e ig n Trade®
T o t a l t .....................................................
In te r co a s ta l T r a d e 0
..
85
C a r lo a d in g s i
T o t a l ............................. .......................... , , 95
M e rch a n d is e a n d M is ce lla n e o u s . . . 109
850
107
78
81
113
72
100
150
86
94
105
96
105
117
115
88
90
111
101
96
159
93
89
138
149
145
191
W h o le s a le T r a d e §
R eta il T r a d e
A u to m o b ile S a le s?
T o ta l ................................................... , . 89
84
P a ss e n g e r Cars .............................
C o m m e r c ia l V e h i c l e s ................. . . 139
D e p a r tm e n t S to re
114
115
123
S a le s î ................................................ , 116
104
106
106
S tock sfi .............................................. . . 100
t------------ Actual Figures-------------^
S t o c k T u rn ov erll ........................................ 26
.22
.22
.27
C o lle c tio n s #
R e g u la r ..............................................
41.5
41.9
43.1
44.3
I n s t a l l m e n t .......................................
15.4
14.9
14.7
16.0
* A d ju s te d fo r se a so n a l v a ria tion s, 1923-1925 a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 . ° I n d e x e s are f o r th ree m o n th s e n d in g w ith m o n th in d ica ted .
f E x c lu d in g raw silk . { D a ily a v era g e. § M o n th ly tota ls o f ten
lin es c o m b in e d , ifA t e n d o f m on th . ||P r o p o r tio n o f a v era g e
sto c k s s o ld d u rin g m o n th . # P e r cen t o f c o lle c tio n s d u rin g
m o n th to a m o u n t o u ts ta n d in g at first o f m on th . Q Revised.
first eight months of this year, collections on
regular accounts have been slower than in
1929, while collections on installment accounts
have held practically at last year’s levels.
R ETAIL T R A D E—Twelfth District
,-----------N E T SALES*----------- ,
Jan. 1 to
Aug., 1930
Aug. 31.1930
compared
compared with
with
Jan. 1 to
Aug.. 1929
Aug. 31,1929
D e p a r tm e n t S t o r e s f . . — 9.7
A p p a r e l S to r e s ............ — 15.1
F u rn itu r e S t o r e s ..........— 18.5
A ll S to r e s ......................— 11.4
( 65)
( 29)
( 43)
(1 3 7 )
— 4.1
— 7.5
— 13.8
— 5.7
( 65)
( 28)
( 41)
(1 3 4 )
STOCK*
Aug., 1930
compared
with
Aug., 1929
—
—
—
—
6.7
5.6
8.6
6.9
(4 8 )
(1 8 )
(2 8 )
(9 4 )
* P e r c e n ta g e in crea se or d e cre a se ( — ) . F ig u r e s in p a ren th eses in
d ica te n u m b er o f stores re p o rtin g , f ln c l u d e s d ry g o o d s s tores.
A
120
80
S ep tem ber, 1930
M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Value of merchandise distributed at whole
sale was smaller during August, 1930, than in
any August since 1921. Aggregate sales in
creased as compared with July by the usual
seasonal amount. Practically no wholesalers
reported increases in sales as compared with
1929, and most declines over the year period
were fairly large, resulting in a drop of 19 per
cent in total sales in the ten lines for which data
are received. The decline in sales of groceries
was eight per cent, the largest year to year de
crease in that line since December, 1928.
Foreign trade of the Twelfth District de
clined considerably during the first six months
of this year as compared with the first six
months of 1929. The value of imports, exclud
ing silk, declined less sharply than did the value
of exports. Imports of silk were smaller in
value than in the first half of any year since
1921, chiefly because of a smaller volume of
goods shipped. The sharp decline in silk prices
also reduced the value figures of imports.
Intercoastal shipments through the Panama
Canal during the month of August were in ap
proximately the same volume as in the previous
month. Tonnage of lumber shipped from the
west coast was extremely small. Petroleum
shipments were moderately large and there was
a substantial volume of general cargo included
in eastbound traffic. Movements of com m odi
ties from the east coast recovered partially
from the low levels noted in July.
After having declined continuously since last
April, total freight carloadings on railroads of
the District increased seasonally during August.
A decline of six per cent in the adjusted index
of industrial loadings was balanced by an inj
crease of four per cent in the index of merchan
dise and miscellaneous shipments. As com
pared with previous years, distribution of goods
by rail continued at the lowest level since 1924.
The decline in loadings of forest products has
been especially severe since last April. Ship
ments of fruit in the Pacific Northwest have
been larger than in any of the past six years.
Carloadings of grain in the same region ap
proached a seasonal peak during August.
Prices
The steadiness noted in average wholesale
comm odity prices during the first half of A u
gust persisted throughout that month and the
first two weeks of September. Advances in
quotations for farm and food products were
offset by minor declines in other com m odity
groups. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index
of wholesale prices remained the same in A u
gust (84.0 — 1926 — 100) as in July, the first
month in a year in which that index has not
declined.
Quotations for wheat advanced early in A u
gust along with increases in prices of crops
seriously affected by the drought in the midW est, but since that time they have moved
irregularly downward. This declining tendency
was evident in Pacific Coast markets as well as
in the m id-W est, and was partly the result of
the addition of this year’s wheat harvest to the
large supplies carried over from last year’s crop.
On September 15 the September option for
wheat at Chicago was quoted as low as 7 9 ^
cents per bushel, the lowest price since 1914.
Hay prices, on the other hand, moved upward
during August largely because of improved
demand for this year’s short crop of hay which
is being used to supplement other feedstuffs
damaged by the drought. Although quotations
for cattle and lambs averaged lower during
August than in July at both District and na
tional markets, livestock prices generally ad
vanced irregularly after mid-August. After
A r iz o n a
P h o e n ix
Au gust,
1929
A ugust,
1930
............
71
FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO
September, 1930
$
27,583
C a liforn ia
10,996
B a k ersfield
19,036
B e r k e le y ............
24,012
F r e sn o ...............
45,287
L o n g B e a ch . . ,
936,255
L o s A n g e le s . . .
172,726
O a k la n d ............
27,327
P a sa d en a ..........
48,893
S a cra m e n to
8,850
San B e rn a rd in o ,
50,722
San D i e g o ..........
S an F r a n c is c o . . 1,256,057
27,345
S a n J o s e ............
14,559
S an ta B a rb a r a
23,000
S t o c k t o n ............
Id a h o
B o i s e ...................
$
39,565 :
-F ir s t Eight M on th s—^
1930
1929
301,527 $
347,732
13,452
22,143
36,165
62,168
1,235,288
241,130
33,958
56,898
11,080
63,643
1,451,450
34,617
16,002
29,889
104,016
159,576
271,233
393,235
8,310,157
1,537,446
282,408
392,067
84,9.12
456,244
10,319,188
218,767
125,454
203,734
112,302
169,990
254,892
513,404
9,773,478
1,932,799
334,829
408,072
91,480
521,499
10,972,800
234,977
135,314
227,884
13,553
16,532
113,107
119,297
declining steadily for several weeks in District
markets, lamb prices increased in late August,
but have since lost the greater part of those
gains. Quotations for cattle have recently re
mained unchanged in District markets, while
they have continued to advance in mid-W est
markets.
The market for fruits has shown substan
tially no change during the past six weeks.
Citrus fruits are still bringing high prices and
deciduous fruits have brought fair returns con
sidering the large size of the 1930 crops.
A reduction in quotations for crude oil at
Twelfth District markets on September 15 and
decreased prices for refined petroleum products
in the eastern part of the United States were in
contrast with a slight increase in retail and
wholesale prices of gasoline on the Pacific
Coast.
In conformity with their trends in other re
cent months, prices for lumber and copper have
declined slightly in the past six weeks. On
September 15 copper was quoted at 10)4 cents
per pound (Connecticut V alley), the lowest
price recorded since 1897.
Credit Situation
There was no marked change in the credit
situation in the Twelfth District between
August 20 and September 17. Available sup
plies of credit and banking funds, already large,
became somewhat larger, demand for credit
continued slack, and member banks were able
easily to meet credit demands without increas
ing their borrowings at the Reserve Bank.
Transactions through the gold settlement fund
resulted in a net loss to the District of about
six million dollars. Purchases of gold by the
San Francisco Mint, partly for the account of
local institutions, amounting to 16 million dol
lars offset this loss and also provided for a
seasonal increase of currency in circulation of
approximately six million dollars and an in
crease of four million dollars in member bank
reserve deposits. Security markets were rela
tively inactive and interest rates again declined
slightly.
F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BA N K O F SA N F R A N C IS C O
(in millions of dollars)
N ev a d a
10,196
13,213
89,868
101,780
O reg on
E u g e n e ..............
P o r t la n d ............
6,378
166,842
8,326
20 9,376
55,649
1,401,993
62,604
1,535,576
U ta h
O g d e n ................
S a lt L a k e C ity.
17,651
64,455
21,459
86,431
137,129
587,598
145,835
645,456
W a s h in g t o n
B e llin g h a m
...
E v e re tt ..............
S ea ttle
...............
S p o k a n e ............
T a com a
............
Y a k im a
............
8,951
11,184
218,913
46,943
42,357
13,499
11,503
14,317
291,958
59,662
53,677
14,273
75,126
103,441
1,907,226
419,951
363,792
110,682
85,311
114,489
2,154,787
481,362
404,522
109,144
T o t a l .................
$3,313,570
* I n th ou sa n d s o f d olla rs.
$4,148,175 $28 ,525,526 $31,991,615
T o ta l B ills and S e c u r itie s ............ .
B ills D is c o u n te d .............................
B ills B o u g h t ....................................
U n ite d S tates S e c u r it ie s ...............
T o ta l R e se rv e s ............................... .
T o t a l D e p o s its ............................... .
F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te s in C ircu -
Sept.17,
1930
66
7
20
39
300
191
Sept. 10, A u g .20, Sept. 18,
1930
1930
1929
65
64
119
7
8
81
19
17
25
39
39
13
308
299
265
192
186
184
162
158
181
The quarterly financial operations of the
United States Treasury were the most signifi
cant factor affecting the intermediate fluctua
tions in District credit and banking- transac-
72
M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
tions during the month. T ax collections during
the week ended September 17 exceeded ordi
nary expenditures by 14 million dollars, or
approximately the same amount by which ex
penditures had exceeded receipts during the
preceding three weeks. Likewise, during the
week of September 17, payments on the public
debt exceeded receipts by six million dollars,
an amount equal to the excess of receipts over
payments on this account during the preceding
three weeks. Compensating movements of
bankers’ balances at San Francisco during the
same period furnish some evidence of the
means by which the credit situation became
adjusted to these changes.
There was a net inflow of bankers’ balances
to San Francisco amounting to about 13 mil
lion dollars during the four weeks ended Sep
tember 17. The amount of such funds carried
in San Francisco by banks located in other
parts of this District and in other Federal re
serve districts was reduced by 11 million dol
lars between August 20 and September 3. A
large proportion of the funds thus withdrawn
was sent to points outside the Tw elfth District.
R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S — T w elfth D istrict
(In millions of dollars)
T o t a l L o a n s and I n v e s t m e n t s . . .
T o t a l L o a n s .......................................
C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s ...........................
L o a n s o n S e c u r it ie s ........................
I n v e s tm e n ts .........................................
N e t D e m a n d D e p o s i t s ....................
T im e D e p o s its ..................................
B o r r o w in g s fr o m F ed era l R e
s e rv e B a n k .......................................
------C o n d itio n -------------------- <>
Sept. 17, Sept. 10, A u g . 20, Sept. 18,
1930
1930
1929
1930
1,968
1,987
1,980
1,962
1,345
1,365
1,356
1,373
899
895
946
898
467
446
461
427
622
623
624
589
757
751
750
774
1,019
1,007
1,016
955
1
1
1
74
S ep tem ber, 1930
A return movement of bankers’ balances
amounting to 24 million dollars was recorded
during the two weeks ended September 17.
M ost of these incom ing funds were for the ac
count of banks outside the Tw elfth District.
Total loans and investments of reporting
member banks increased slightly during the
period under review, due to a small increase
in loans which more than offset a slight de
crease in investments. Discounts at the Fed
eral Reserve Bank of San Francisco continued
at low levels; in fact there was a further reduc
tion of one million dollars during this period.
This decrease was contrary to seasonal expec
tations and centered almost entirely in the
accounts of banks located in agricultural com
munities. On September 17, the Reserve Bank’s
holdings of locally purchased acceptances,
which have been declining for the past seven
months, reached a low point of six million
dollars.
Trading on the stock exchanges of the D is
trict was less active in A ugust and early Sep
tember than in July, a month in which the
volume of trading was at low levels. Declining
activity on the exchanges was accompanied by
a reduction in the volume of loans extended
by banks to brokers and dealers in securities
and some increase in the security loans of
reporting member banks.
Rates of interest charged customers of com
mercial banks continued to decline, follow ing
the trend of short term money rates in New
York and the reduction in the discount rate of
this Bank in August.
D E P O S I T S , L O A N S , A N D I N V E S T M E N T S O F R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S — T w elfth D istrict
T h o s e d e s i r i n g t h is R e v ie w s e n t t h e m r e g u la r ly w ill r e c e iv e i t w i t h o u t c h a r g e u p o n a p p lic a t io n .
@FedFRASER