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M TWELFTH FEDERAL O RESERVE N T H L Y R E V I E W DISTRICT F e d e r a l r e s e r v e Ba n k o f S a n F r a n c is c o SEPTEMBER 1953 TWELFTH DISTRICT STEEL: A “WAR BABY” GROWS UP the in the Intrict decade 1943-53, steel capacitypercent.Twelfth Dis has grown by more than 400 The bulk of this remarkable growth took place as war investment dur ing World War II, but substantial expansion has also occurred in the postwar period. Since the start of World W ar II, there have been two major growth periods, the second of which seems now to be at or near a tapering off point. The first growth period occurred in the years 1943-44, when the District’s two major wholly integrated steel plants were established to supply plate and struc tural steel to the Pacific Coast shipbuilding industry. The second growth period has been from 1947 to the present. For two years following cessation of hostilities in 1945, little change took place in facilities for producing steel ingots in the District. That interval was a period of transi tion for the steel industry in the seven western states. Important financial and technological adjustments had to be made to permit the industry to produce for nondefense purposes and to grow in response to rising industrial demand. Since 1947 the District’s capacity to produce steel has risen at a consistently high rate, usually exceed ing the rate of growth of the nation’s steel industry as a whole (see Chart l ) . 1 Production has followed a pattern similar to that displayed by the growth in capacity, declin ing markedly during the transition phase (1945-47), but remaining high as a percentage of capacity in most of the years following. In 1951, as the diagram shows, produc tion exceeded 100 percent of capacity2 as it has in the first half of 1953. Three producers dominate the Twelfth District steel market.3 The rapid growth in facilities and in production is largely a reflection of their activities. However, the 1 Percent changes in ingot capacity for 1947-53 are as follow s: 1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 1949-50 Twelfth District U . S. — 0.3 — 0.5 6.4 3.3 5.3 1.8 11.5 3.5 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 Tw elfth District 5.0 11.4 7.9 U . S. 5.2 4.2 - / 7 / C a p a c i t y , ....... \ / / v P r o d u c tio n - [\i A V , nmLmm 93 6 .1 1 1940 „ 1 _____ 1938 i , ■■ ■ , J______ 1942 V i 1944 i i i i 1946 1948 i 1950 i i 1952 3 The three producers are Bethlehem Pacific Coast Steel Corporation, Columbia-Geneva Division of United States Steel Corporation, and Kaiser Steel Corporation. Bethlehem operates steel mills at Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle; Columbia operates mills at Geneva, Utah, T or rance, California, and Pittsburg, California; Kaiser’s mill is located at Fontana, California. i 1954 N o te : Although production in the first half of 1953 has been at or above capacity almost continuously, Iron Age has anticipated a decline in the latter half of the year of such magnitude that the annual rate is pre dicted as being about 94 percent of capacity. Since the chart is plotted in terms of annual rates, the connecting lines do not indicate any fluctu ations within the year. Sources: Production for the period 1936-1944 was estimated by the Fed eral Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The source for all capacity figures and for production figures for the period 1945-1952 is the Annual Statis tical Reports of the American Iron and Steel Institute. The 1953 pro duction estimate is from Iron Age, July 6, 1953. smaller firms, whose steel production is based mainly on scrap steel as a raw material, have also lived a healthy economic life for the most part. These mills, which were the backbone of the small prewar steel industry in the District, now find themselves more than ever in the posi tion of the “ competitive fringe” of an industry character ized by large-scale operations. Nevertheless, capacity fig- 8.2 2 Capacity, as reported by the steel companies to the American Iron and Steel Institute, is at best an estimate of maximum potential output. Rated capacity is the figure reported by the Institute at the first of each year. H ence, production can exceed capacity either because of underestimation of “ true” capacity or because of the addition of new facilities during the year. C hart 1 A N N U A L S T E E L P R O D U C T IO N A N D C A P A C I T Y T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T , 1936-1953 Also in This Issue Earnings and Expenses of Twelfth District Member Banks, First Half 1 9 5 3 .......................................... 115 Income Payments In the Twelfth District, 19 5 2 ................................. 116 112 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FRA NC ISCO ures show that the rate of growth of the “ independent” producers as a group has been slightly greater since 1945 than that of the western big three.1 In 1945 and 1946 there was a good deal of speculation about the meaning of the large, war-built steel facilities to the economy of the West.2 Enthusiasts were quick to conclude that the West would at long last be able to obtain steel at prices comparable to those charged industrial users in the East. Other observers pointed to an imposing list of obstacles that might have left the Fontana, Cali fornia, and Geneva, Utah, plants idle “ white elephants” if the postwar market for steel had been weak. The most imposing obstacles appeared to be heavy fixed financial charges, lack of good coking coal, possible lack of an ade quate supply of high quality ore, high intradistrict freight rates, and the need to adapt to a peacetime pattern of demand for products far different from those produced during the war. Those obstacles were met and conquered in various ways, as the following discussion illustrates. Capital costs The high cost of construction of facilities at Geneva was largely borne by the Federal Government. In 1946 the plant was sold for private operation at approximately 20 percent of its war-inflated cost of construction. Thus, capital charges against each ton of steel produced with the converted Geneva facilities have not been onerous. The plant at Fontana was privately built with the aid of funds from the Reconstruction Finance Corporation at an interest charge that was favorable at the time. It is con ceivable, however, that the payment of the interest and principal might have become a heavy burden in a weak market. Fortunately, Fontana’s capital problem was made much easier to cope with by the high sales and revenues of the last several years. The RFC loan was paid in full in 1950, a large portion of it being refinanced from private sources. Debt repayment on these private loans will begin next year, and the amount of repayment scheduled per ton of anticipated production is a large figure. However, very substantial amortization reserves have already been created, in part under fast amortization arrangements. Raw' materials Although western steel producers in the pre-World W ar II period enjoyed a favorable scrap steel market which was adequate to meet their need for raw materials, the war-created plants were integrated to the blast furnace level and needed large supplies of coking coal and iron ore. Some concern was expressed over the availability of 1 Capacity of “ independent” steel producers as percentage of total Twelfth District capacity: 1945.............................................. 6.7 1 9 4 8 ........................................................ 195 1 195 2 195 3 10.1 13.6 15.0 15.5 There are 10 “ independent” steel mills operating in the Twelfth District, all in California, Oregon, and W ashington. , Sources: The American Iron and Steel Institute, Iron and Steel Works Directory of the United States and Canada, and Iron Age. 2 See, e.g., E. T . Grether, et al., The Steel and Steel-Using Industries of Cali fornia, California State Reconstruction and Reemployment Commission, Sacramento, 1946. A lso, Fortune, February, 1945. September 1953 such supplies. Quality, rather than quantity, of the basic raw materials was the main concern in those early post war years. Producers now assert that western supplies of coal and ore are not only of adequate quality, but very economical. Coal is blended in the coking furnaces and ore is beneficiated,1 but only to improve performance which is already adequate, they report. As to quantity of ore, studies made by the State of California Department of Natural Resources2 indicate that ore deposits in California are adequate to support present blast furnace capacity well beyond a normal amortization period. Eagle Mountain ore bodies, located in western Riverside County, are believed to be capable of supporting Fontana’s three blast furnaces at 75 percent of capacity for thirty-five years. Company estimates are even more optimistic.3 Utah ores, which supply the Geneva plant, are reported to be more than adequate to support production beyond a normal amortization period of 20 years. Utah coal supplies, which supply both of the blast furnace operating plants in the District, are unquestionably adequate as to quantity, and early fears as to its quality as coking coal are reportedly allayed. Freight rates and the price structure of the Far West Since 1948 there have been several important changes in freight schedules. The most important single change from the point of view of Twelfth District producers and users of steel occurred in March 1947 when new rates were granted by the railroads for the Geneva-to-coastports haul. This change reduced the formal rates to levels based on revenues per car mile and per ton mile which the Interstate Commerce Commission judged to be com parable to such revenues elsewhere in the nation. The freight charges per ton of steel mill products from Geneva to Los Angeles and San Francisco thus became $9.60. The rates which had formally prevailed until that time were virtually the same per ton as those charged on the rail and water route from the East Coast through the Panama Canal— about $15.00 per ton. Those rates, if effective, would have eliminated the locational advantage of the Geneva plant compared with Atlantic seaboard producers.4 Subsequent rate increases have brought the rates back virtually to the level of the prewar “ paper rate,” but in the meantime the cheapest rate from eastern mills has risen to $22.50 per ton. Consequently, consid erable differences in freight charges from major produc ing mills to major far western consuming areas have been 1 Beneficiation is the process of raising the percentage of iron content in ore or otherwise preparing it for blast furnace operation. 2 J. B . H adley, “ Iron-O re Deposits in the Eastern Part of the Eagle M oun tains, Riverside County, California,” Iron Resources of California Bulletin N o. 129, Part A , issued by the State Division of M ines, June 1945. 3 I t appears doubtful, however, that any large expansion of the pig iron base of the Tw elfth District could be supported by mineral raw materials within the area. The two groups of ore deposits capable of supplying an integrated mill for the time period required to amortize the investment in such a mill are already fully occupied. 4 During the war, a special rate was granted for steel which the Government shipped from Geneva to the Pacific Coast shipyards. The postwar rates granted by the railroads in 1947 an$ approved by the Interstate Com merce Commission in 1949 were roughly comparable to that wartime rate. The formal rate was never an effective rate in the sense that it was never charged on any large quantities of steel shipments. For that reason, it has been referred to by the traffic manager of one of the steel companies as a “ paper rate.” September 1953 established.1The difference between the rate from Geneva to Los Angeles and San Francisco and the rate from Sparrows Point, Maryland, to Pacific Coast ports is $8.01 per ton. Geneva charges mill prices identical with those charged by the major Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, pro ducers ; consequently, those products which Geneva sup plies directly to buyers of mill products are sold at a delivered price substantially below those of products be ing shipped in from eastern mills. A considerable propor tion of Geneva’s product is intermediate product which is further processed at California mills owned by the same company. These mill products are then sold at what appears to be an approximation of “ Geneva plus” (that is, the delivered price that would obtain if the products were completely processed in, and shipped from, Geneva). However, about 40 percent of the mill products con sumed in the District’s markets are shipped in from the East. The bulk of this is delivered at the Sparrows Point, Maryland, price plus freight. A relatively small amount of these “ imported” products has been shipped overland from inland producers and is delivered at prices that may exceed both “ Geneva plus” and “ Sparrows Point plus.” The “ independent” producers usually follow the price leadership of the larger producers, but in some areas they have been able to charge prices above that range due to the extreme tightness of supply in the last several years. The importance of such premium-priced sales appears to be rather small in the total picture, however. The prod ucts of the Fontana mill are delivered in the various Dis trict markets at prices which meet the “ lowest effective competition.” The producers located on the Pacific Coast are under a substantial freight “ umbrella,” for although they are located at or near the major market areas of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, they charge the same prices as those producers who transport their wares over con siderable distances. This means that some high cost pro ducers have been able to operate at a profit and that others in a better cost position would be able to operate profit ably even if steel prices should fall. Steel demand has already shown some decline, and, as is noted below, is expected to fall somewhat further. In the event that this decline should reduce the deficit of locally produced steel products sufficiently, eastern producers may reduce their prices and absorb freight in order to maintain their posi tions in the local market. Freight absorption would bring delivered steel prices in District markets closer to deliv ered prices in the major industrial areas of the East. But since the shipping distance from Geneva to the Pacific Coast ports is greater than such hauls as Gary, Illinois, 1 Selected freight rates on steel mill products, effective M ay 2, 1952 to date, are as follow s: From Geneva, U tah Geneva, U tah Fontana, California Fontana, California Fontana, California Chicago, Illinois Pittsburgh, Pa. Sparrows Point, M d. 113 M O N T H L Y R E V IE W To Los Angeles and Seattle San Francisco Los Angeles Seattle Los Angeles and Los Angeles and Los Angeles and San Francisco ^ San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco Rate per ton $14.49 16.10 7.00 1.82 17.02 34.04 38,41 22.50 to Detroit, Michigan, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to Cleveland, Ohio, the freight element in local prices is likely to remain high enough so that some East-West price differential will be maintained in the absence of any sharp break in the market. Diversification of District finishing capacity It was often noted in the early postwar studies of the western steel industry that the war-built facilities were not designed for peacetime production, in that they were equipped to produce primarily heavy plate for shipbuild ing. Since the end of the war, shipbuilding on the Pacific Coast has all but ceased. However, continued production of heavy plate has been in part supported by the large de mand for pipe resulting from extensive pipeline construc tion. But still a major conversion to a diversified list of finished products more in line with the types of demand characteristic of the Twelfth District has been necessary. That conversion has been accomplished to the point that Twelfth District finishing facilities are now able to handle virtually all of the ingots and semi-finished steel products that can be produced in the area. Of the approximately 5.25 million tons of product from steel furnaces that will probably be produced in 1953, about 3.9 million tons should appear on the market as finished product. No ade quate statistics are available which show the way in which those 3.9 millions will be divided. However, some indica tion of the structure of supply in the seven western states can be obtained from the following computations on re ceipts of steel mill products in 1951, a peak year: 1951 receipts Product group (net tons) Plates, sheared and universal..................................1,155,000 Structural shapes ..................................................... 468,000 H ot rolled bars and bar sized s h a p e s ....................1,088,000 Sheets and s t r i p .......................................................... 925,000 Standard and line p i p e ........................................... 453,000 Tin mill products ..................................................... 876,000 All other ........................................................................ .....1,075,000! Total ........................................................................... 6,040,000 Percent of total 19.1 7.8 18.0 15.3 7.5 14.5 17.8 100.0 1This group was estimated to be divided roughly as follow s: 50 percent wire and wire products and rods for sale; 20 percent in the form of rails and rail accessories; 20 percent in tubular products other than standard and line pipe; 10 percent miscellaneous. Source: Kaiser Steel Corporation, A Report to Far Western Steel Pur chasers, 1952. Somewhat less than two-thirds of total demand for mill products can be fulfilled by mills operating within the District. Nevertheless, these figures reflect a remarkable increase over potentialities of western steel finishing facili ties in the prewar period, when probably no more than one-third of total demand for mill products could be so supplied. At the same time, figures from the source just cited indicate that the total of mill products purchased and received in the District increased from an annual average of 2.13 million net tons for the years 1936-1940 to 6.04 million net tons for 1951, an increase of 184 percent. In 1951 a number of products were still being supplied pre dominantly by mills outside the District. In some measure such deficits were reflections of economic factors which led western producers to prefer expansion in production of other products. Other deficits were in the process of being removed by expansion programs, some of which are 114 still in progress. For example, during 1953 tinplate pro duction in the West is expected to exceed 50 percent of local demand for the first time in history. The gain is due to the start of operation of a 38-inch electrolytic continuous tinning mill at Fontana and to a 10 percent expansion of capacity at Pittsburg, California. These increases in capacity will not be fully felt until late in the current year. As soon as new and expanded facilities reach full produc tion, the District’s mills will be able to produce about 70 percent of current local demand. To indicate further the nature of the process of conversion, in the years 1945-51 the following changes in finishing capacity may be cited: (1 ) sheared plate capacity, which manufactured the main product of wartime operations, was reduced about 25 per cent; (2 ) pipe and tube capacity was increased almost seven times; (3 ) hot rolled strip capacity increased about ten times; (4 ) tin and terne plate capacity increased about six times.1 In recent years, the following major changes in rolling and finishing facilities have been reported by Twelfth Dis trict manufacturers: Year Location 1950 Fontana, California 86 -inch1 hot strip finishing mill For production of light gauge flatrolled products— pipe skelp, hot bands for tin plate, and light gauge plates for various uses. In con junction with the 110-inch plate mill, Fontana now has annual ca pacity to produce 840,000 tons of this type of product. 1950 Pittsburg, California 21 -inch1 and 50-inch x 60-inch 4-stand 4 -H 2 tandem mill This mill is part of the 10 percent expansion of tinning capacity at Pittsburg, California, 1951 Provo, U tah 86-inch 2 -H 2 temper mill For metallurgical rolling. Conversion of 132-inch plate mill to 80-inch semi-continuous hot strip mill Produces hot rolled coils for many light gauge products. 38-inch electrolytic continuous tinning mill These additions give Fontana tinning facilities with annual capacity of 200,000 tons. 1952 Fontana, California Facility Explanation Geneva, U tah Shear line tive proportions of various products and thereby retain greater stability in total output. In general, the transition of western steel from a small, specialized industry to one that is adequate to provide the bulk of the steel mill products of the District has been accomplished. It is conceivable that when the sellers’ market has given way to greater competition for orders, this development might mean steel prices in the area more nearly comparable to those charged to buyers in eastern markets. Thus far, 1953 has been a year of unsurpassed levels of production in the nation’s steel industry. Accord ing to weekly estimates of production, the American steel industry has produced at or above 100 percent of rated capacity in 13 weeks of the year to the date of this writing and has produced below 90 percent of capacity in only one week (see Chart 2 ). Midyear estimates indicate that the nation will produce more than 110 million tons of steel ingots this year. The preceding high was 105.2 million tons produced in 1951. This high level of prosperity has been more than shared by Twelfth District producers. Ir o n A g e 's weekly series on steel operations by percent of capacity shows that the West as a district has produced at or above 100 percent of rated capacity in 31 of 39 weeks from the first of the year to the end of September. The lowest rate was 98.5 percent until the week of September 6, when it fell to 92.5 percent. On one occasion, the week of March 22, the rate of western production rose to 110.5 percent of rated capacity. Large quantities of orders are already reported for the fourth quarter, although the backlogs are said to be considerably smaller than the in dustry has become accustomed to in the past several years. The consensus in the industry is that the present high levels of operation will not continue into the last three months of the year. However, there seems to be little feeling that the decline will be sharp. C 7 hot dip pots 44-inch 4 -H , 2 -H temper mill and 44-inch 4 -H 5-stand cold mill 1952 September 1953 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FRA N C ISCO h a r t 2 STEEL OPERATIONS: PERCENT OF C A P A C IT Y —UNITED STATES A N D WESTERN STATES Weekly, January-September 1953 This facility shears sheets from coils for ease in handling and for further processing. 4The dimension usually given in descriptions of rolling mills refers to the length of the rolls. In the case of the Pittsburg mill, the 21-inch refers to the distance between stands; 50-inch x 60-inch is the diameter and length of the rolls. 2 “ 4 - H ” should be read “ four-high.” I t indicates that the rolling stand contains four rolls. “ 2 - H ” indicates a stand of two rolls. These additions represent near completion of a set of large conversion and modification plans that were only beginning to get under way in 1948. Further programs are in progress to increase finishing capacity and to im prove the balance of the large integrated mills. This in creased diversification is likely to give the District’s steel industry greater flexibility than the capabilities of a more specialized industry might allow. In periods of falling demand, not all components of steel demand fall at the same rate. Diversified plants are able to change the rela1 American Iron and Steel Institute, Iron and Steel Works Directory of the United States and Canada, 1945 and 1951. A s was noted at the beginning of the article, reporting of capacity is quite arbitrary. H ence, anything more than approximate use of such statistics to indicate patterns of growth might imply more precision than is possible. •Includes eleven western states, while the Tw elfth District includes only seven. How ever, of the four states outside the District, only Colorado is of significance so far as steel operations are concerned. Source: Iron Age, 1953 (weekly series). September 1953 115 M O N T H L Y R E V IE W EARNINGS AND EXPENSES OF TWELFTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS FIRST HALF 19 5 3 r o v is io n for substantially larger income tax payments P caused the net profits after taxes that Twelfth Dis trict member banks earned in the first half of 1953 to fall 4 percent below those of the corresponding period a year ago.This decline was confined, however, to the large banks in the District. The net profits after taxes of the fifteen largest banks as a group were 6 percent below a year ago. The remaining District member banks, on the other hand, earned 7 percent more after taxes than a year ago, which is larger than the gain of 5 percent for member banks in the country as a whole. The amount set aside for income taxes by member banks in the Twelfth District was 44 percent greater than in the corresponding period of 1952, compared with a national increase of only 17 percent. Both large and small banks in the Twelfth District made provision for substantial increases in their income tax payments. Operating income and expenses The much greater increase in provision for income taxes in the Twelfth District probably reflects primarily the fact that the earnings before taxes of member banks rose more in the Twelfth District than in the country as a whole. Profits before income taxes were 17 percent larger than in the first half of 1952 for District member banks compared with 10 percent for all member banks. Total earnings before deduction of expenses of District member banks were 17 percent larger than in the first half of 1952. The major element in the rise in earnings was a 21 percent increase in interest and discounts on loans received by member banks in the District compared with 16 per cent nationally. This increase was due in part to higher interest rates charged by banks but probably the greater impetus came from the larger volume of loans out standing. Especially significant were the increases in vol ume of consumer and real estate loans which carry higher interest rates than do business loans. Although member banks in both the Twelfth District and the nation had larger average loan portfolios and smaller average holdings of Government securities than in the first half of 1952, they earned more interest on Government securities in the first half of this year than in the corresponding period a year ago. The increase was 14 percent in the District and 12 percent in the country as a whole. This growth in income reflects the higher yields on Government securities that have prevailed this year. Within the District, the decline in average holdings of Government securities was confined to the fifteen larg est banks. The smaller member banks increased their av erage holdings with the result that their earnings from Governments were 28 percent larger than in the corre sponding period of 1952. The fifteen largest banks de creased their holdings of Government securities and ex panded their loans, while the smaller banks increased both their loans and their holdings of Governments. “ Other earnings,” which include interest and dividends on securities other than United States Government, serv ice charges on loans and deposits, income from trust de partments, and other miscellaneous income, also showed greater gains in the Twelfth District than in the country as a whole. The fifteen largest banks accounted for the better performance of the District in this regard since the smaller District banks fell below the national increase in this category. Expenses of Twelfth District member banks were 10.8 percent higher than in the first half of 1952, only slightly more than the increase for member banks in the country as a whole. The increase for the fifteen largest banks in the District, 9.6 percent, was substantially below the 15.7 percent increase for the other District banks. A break down of expenses of the fifteen largest banks indicates that their wage and salary payments were 11 percent higher than in the first half of 1952, and interest on time deposits was 10 percent higher. Similar data for the other District banks have not been compiled. Net losses and charge-offs In the first half of 1953 District member banks had smaller recoveries and profits on loans and securities than in the corresponding period a year ago. Their losses and charge-offs, on the other hand, were nearly twice as large as a year ago. Their net losses and charge-offs, after deduction of recoveries and profits, were seven times greater than a year ago. S e le c te d E a r n in g s a n d E x p e n s e I te m s o f M e m b e r B a n k s— T w e lfth D is t r ic t a n d U n ite d S ta te s , J a n u a r y -J u n e , 1952 and 1953 /------------------ Twielfth District----------------------^ ----- A ll banks----- > U .S . 1st half 1st half i------- Percent change------- v percent 1953p 1952 Fifteen change— A ll (in millions) largest Other all banks Interest and discount on loans1 ............................. $238.3 $197.8 + 2 0 .5 + 19.7 + 23.6 + 15.5 Interest on Government securities ...................... 63.4 55.8 + 13.6 + 9.5 + 27.8 + 12.0 74.0 68.1 Other earnings ............... + 8.7 + 9.7 + 4.4 + 6.7 Total earnings .......... 375.7 Total expenses .......... 229.2 321.7 206.8 + 16.8 + 10.8 + + 15.9 9.6 + 2 0 .3 + 15.7 + 12.8 + 10.6 146.5 114.9 + 2 7 .5 + 2 7 .0 + 2 9 .6 + 16.2 N et current earnings. . . Total recoveries and 5.5 8.6 Total losses and charge-offs ................... 20.5 10.8 N et losses and charge-offs ............... 15.0 2.2 Profits before income taxes ................................ 131.5 Taxes on net in co m e .. 68.7 112.7 47.6 + 16.7 + 4 4 .3 + 15.6 + 4 5 .0 + 2 2 .1 + 4 2 .4 + 10.4 + 16.6 N et profits after taxes. Cash dividends declared2 62.8 34.4 65.1 32.8 — 3.5 + 4.9 — 5.8 + 4.5 + 7.0 7.3 + + + 5.3 3.8 Undistributed profits . . 28.4 32.3 — 12.1 — 17.5 + 6.8 + 6.6 1 United States loan earnings figures include service charges and other fees on loans; Twelfth District figures include interest and discount only. Service charges and fees on loans in Twelfth District included in “ other earnings.” 2 Figures include common stock dividends only. p Preliminary. 116 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N F R A N C ISCO Entries under the category of losses and charge-offs may include not only actual losses and charge-offs but also transfers to valuation reserves created for future losses. Similarly, entries under recoveries and profits may include transfers from valuation reserves. Since the bulk of the increase in total losses and chargeoffs was accounted for by the fifteen largest banks in the District, detailed data were compiled for these banks, indicating their losses after adjustment for transfers to and from reserves. Similar data were not compiled for all District member banks. These data indicate that the “ ad justed” losses on securities, after allowance for transfers to and from reserves, of the fifteen largest banks were $2 million during the first half of 1953, compared with “ adjusted” recoveries of $1 million in the corresponding period a year ago. This marked difference reflects the fact that these banks sold substantial amounts of Govern ment securities in the first half of 1953 when prices of such securities were falling, whereas a year ago the de cline in their holdings of Governments was relatively September 1953 small and occurred at a time when security prices were rising. In contrast, the experience with loans in the fifteen largest banks was more favorable this year than last. They had “ adjusted” recoveries on loans amounting to $212 thousand this year compared with “ adjusted” losses of $645 thousand in the first half of 1952. Profits and dividends As has already been indicated, net profits after taxes for District member banks fell below the first half of 1952 as a result of the substantial increase in the amount set aside for income taxes. Stockholders, however, received cash dividends that were 5 percent larger than in the first half of 1952. The upward trend in dividend payments that has prevailed since World W ar II was thus continued. The smaller banks increased their dividend payments rel atively more than did the fifteen largest banks, which would be expected since the smaller banks fared much better with respect to net profits after taxes than did the fifteen largest. INCOME PAYMENTS IN THE TWELFTH DISTRICT, 1 9 5 2 1 n c o m e payments to individuals in the Twelfth District I during 1952 rose 8 percent above the 1951 figure com pared with 5 percent in the country as a whole. The in creases in Nevada, 15 percent, and Arizona, 12 percent, were the second and third largest in the nation, while the other District states had gains ranging from 5 to 9 per cent. The greater growth in the District’s total income payments resulted from a relatively smaller decline in farm income and a larger percentage increase in nonfarm income payments than occurred nationally. Owing to a relatively larger population growth in the District, the rise in per capita income was only slightly larger in the District than in the country as a whole, 5 percent com pared with 4 percent. In general, the percent changes in total, in per capita, and component sources of income pay ments during the year were in keeping with the over-all postwar pattern. Nonfarm income rises more in District in 1952 The rise in income from the nonfarm sectors of the economy during 1952 was relatively greater in the Dis trict than in the country as a whole. Manufacturing pay rolls in the District increased 15 percent compared with 8 percent nationally. Arizona had the largest relative in crease, 38 percent, in this sector of any state in the nation, and although it is among the least industrialized states in the country, the gain was sizable, $25 million. The in crease in manufacturing payrolls in California was in part the result of a continued upsurge of total wages and salaries in the aircraft industry. Wage payrolls in the air craft and parts industries in California increased 49 per cent above the 1951 figure. These payrolls alone accounted 1 This discussion is based primarily upon the estimates which appear in the United States Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business, A u g ust 1953, pp. 7-15. for approximately 21 percent of California’s total manu facturing payrolls. Among the other income increases in the nonfarm sector, government payments rose relatively more in the District than in the nation owing primarily to the greater than average rise in defense establishment expenditures in the West. However, Oregon’s 20 percent increase in government payments during the year was in large part the result of a state bonus paid to veterans. Trade and service payrolls also showed a larger increase in the Dis trict than nationally. The highest percentage increase in this sector occurred in Nevada where trade and service income normally accounts for the largest proportion of income payments. Nevada also had an upsurge in con struction payrolls, 63 percent, and in mining payrolls, 36 percent, which helps to explain why the state had a 15 percent increase in its total income payments despite an 11 percent decline in agricultural income. Agricultural income declines in 1952 The smaller percentage increase in total income pay ments in the nation than in the District during 1952 resulted in considerable part from a greater decline na tionally in agricultural income. Farm income payments in the District declined 1 percent below the previous year compared with 5 percent in the country as a whole. This percentage difference was largely due to the fall in live stock prices relative to crop prices during the year coupled with the fact that livestock provides a smaller proportion of farm income in the District than in the nation. During 1952 cash receipts from crop marketings rose by 12 per cent in both the District and the nation, whereas the drop in receipts from livestock and livestock products was less in the District than in the country as a whole. Since cash September 1953 117 M O N T H L Y R E V IE W also had a decline in their percentage of total national in come payments in the period 1946-1951. Arizona, on the other hand, had one of the larger per centage income increases in the nation during these post war years, and consequently its share of national income payments increased. Income payments in the state rose from $644 million in 1946 to $1,145 million in 1951— an increase of 78 percent. As shown in Table 1, Nevada, Oregon, and Utah also had percentage increases in their total income payments during these years which were above the national 42 percent rise. The larger percentage increase in TOTAL INCOME PAYMENTS from 1951 to 1952 in the Twelfth District relative to the nation UNITED STATES TWELFTH DISTRICT w as due to the smaller percentage decline in AGRICULTURAL income payments in the District Agriculture and to the larger percentage increases in District income payments from the NONAGRICULTURAL sectors. Manufacturing payrolls Government income payments Trade and services income Other income 0 +5 Percent changes, 1 95 1 -5 2 +1 0 + 15 S o u rce: United States Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Busi ness, Au gust 1953, pp. 7-15. receipts from livestock marketings during the year ac counted for 40 percent of total cash farm marketing re ceipts in the District compared with 57 percent in the nation, the declining livestock prices had a more pro nounced effect upon national than upon District farm income receipts. This decline in cash receipts from live stock marketings combined with increased operating ex penses to the farmers during the year resulted in a decline in agricultural net income. Changing sources of income, 1946-52 The changing importance of the various sources of in come is one of the more interesting factors in observing income payments over time. Among the many social and economic consequences of these changing income sources is that geographic differences in economic structure often help to explain regional differences in per capita and total income payments. If, for example, there appears to be a decline in the relative importance of low earnings indus tries in favor of a relative increase in importance of high earnings industries, then we would anticipate a rise in total income payments to the area. A shift in sources of income payments is also an indicator of a changing market in which different types of goods and services can be sold. Over the entire postwar period, 1946-52, the agricul tural sector, as a source of income payments in the District, declined relative to the nonagricultural sectors. Table 2 indicates that the percentage of total income aris ing from agriculture declined from 11 percent in 1946 to 7.3 percent in 1952. This decline of 3.7 percentage points T able 1 T o t a l I n c o m e P a y m e n t s to I n d iv id u a l s , T w e l f t h 1946, 1951, 1952 (in millions of dollars) Total /-------- income payments-------- \ Total income payments, 1946-51 Owing to the varied movements in both the farm and nonfarm sectors described above, total income payments rose relatively more in the District than in the nation in 1952. This contrasted to the postwar period 1946-51 in which income payments increased 41 percent in the Dis trict compared with 42 percent in the country as a whole. The relatively smaller percentage growth in the District during this longer period was due in large part to the decline in California’s percentage of national income payments, which resulted primarily from an absolute de cline in farm income in California during the years 194648. In this three-year period, agricultural income pay ments in California declined 11 percent compared with a 25 percent increase in the nation. They surged upward, however, from 1949 to 1951. During the postwar period, farm income from field crops in California became a larger percentage of total crop receipts whereas income from fruits, nuts, and truck farm crops underwent a relative decline. Along with California, Idaho and Washington Area 1946 644 . . 15,180 608 239 1,779 694 3,139 22,281 , 170,962 W a s h in g to n ............... Twelfth District . . . 1951 1,145 21,214 808 353 2,595 1,019 4,217 31,351 242,529 1952 1,287 23,146 874 405 2,763 1,069 4,466 34,010 255,367 P e r C a p ita In c o m e P a y m e n ts , T w e l f t h / D is t r ic t Percent ------ change------- 1946-51 78 40 33 48 46 47 34 41 42 1951-52 12 9 8 15 6 5 6 8 5 D is tr ic t 1946-1952 (in dollars) Area California ................. , U t a h ............................. Washington ............ Twelfth District . . . United S t a t e s .......... Per capita t----------income payments----------\ 1946 1951 1952 985 1,421 1,498 1,915 2,032 1,547 1,618 1,626 2,064 2,250 . 1,268 1,670 1,733 1,048 1,439 1,450 1,310 1,738 1,810 1,403 1,819 1,581 1,914 1,639 Percent (------ change--------\ 1946-51 1951-52 45 5 27 6 35 5 27 9 32 4 37 1 33 4 30 31 5 4 N o t e : The above figures supersede others previously published in this Review. State income statistics for 1950 and 1951 were revised by the Department of Commerce and the census estimates for 1946 were revised in light of the 1950 census. 118 September 1953 FEDERAL RÉSERVE B A N K OF S A N FRA N C ISCO T able 2 P ercen t ag e D is t r ib u t io n of T o ta l I n c o m e P a y m e n t s b y M a jo r C o m p o n e n t s 1946, 1951, 1952 t----- Agriculture----- \ Area 1946 1951 1952 Arizona ............................................................................. 16.9 21.6 18.5 California ........................................................................ 9.5 6.9 6.0 Idaho .................................................................................. 30.0 20.7 22.5 N e v a d a ................................................................................ 10.4 10.9 8.2 Oregon ................................................................................ 13.5 8.0 8.7 Utah .................................................................................. 12.1 9.2 7.4 Washington ...................................................................... 11.8 6.6 6.7 Twelfth District .......................................................... 11.0 United States ............................................................... 9.8 8.0 7.6 ^Manufacturing— ^ 1946 1951 1952 4.8 5.8 7.1 17.1 18.7 13.7 7.2 10.9 4.1 3.5 4.3 18.5 22.5 7.2 10.5 10.5 18.5 15.4 18.6 11.0 22.0 7.3 6.7 13.6 21.3 16.8 23.9 17.9 24.5 22.2 20.8 21.1 Trade -----and Services----1946 1951 1952 28.2 24.7 25.4 32.4 28.7 28.4 24.6 22.5 23.7 32.6 32.5 31.8 28.9 27.4 26.5 26.5 24.6 24.5 28.1 26.5 26.3 18.3 15.3 31.0 26.6 — Government— ^ 1946 1951 1952 19.1 18.3 18.2 17.9 18.7 16.0 15.3 15.9 17.5 17.3 16.6 16.2 15.0 14.1 23.1 25.5 21.9 20.1 18.5 17.0 18.9 15.9 27.9 25.9 27.6 25.6 -Other1951 29.6 29.1 29.3 36.9 35.0 24.1 28.0 28.7 33.5 27.6 1952 29.9 28.2 28.2 38.4 26.6 34.5 27.3 26.0 25.3 28.3 27.3 1946 30.0 26.5 22.2 22.8 29.0 27.3 N o te : Figures may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. The above figures for 1951 supersede others previously published in this Review in accord with the revisions of the Department of Commerce state income statistics. in the proportion of farm income to total income payments compares with a decline of 3.1 percentage points for the nation. All District states conformed to this pattern ex cept Arizona where agricultural income became a larger proportion of its total income payments. California’s farm income, which accounts for approximately 58 percent of the District’s total, contributed 6 percent to total income payments in the state during 1952 compared with 9.5 percent in 1946. While agriculture as a source of income in the District declined in relative importance, the proportion contrib uted by the manufacturing and government income sec tors increased. Manufacturing payrolls as a source of income accounted for 17.9 percent of total income in 1952 compared with 13.6 percent in 1946. As Table 2 indicates, income payments from the government sector showed only a small increase in relative importance during these years, but it was and still remains a larger proportion of total income payments in the District than in the nation. Trade and service payments, like agricultural income, have become a declining source of income to the District. However, unlike agricultural payments, none of the states in the District had an absolute decline in this source of income payments in the period 1946-1952. Looking at a percentage breakdown of total income payments by type (Table 3) we have a further indication that the agricultural sector is a relatively declining in come segment in the Twelfth District. Proprietors’ inPER C A P I T A I N C O M E P A Y M E N T S O F T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T A N D ST A T E A S A P E R C E N T A G E OF N A T IO N A L A V E R A G E 1946-1951 and 1951-1952 Percent 1401---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- T able 3 P e r c en t ag e D is t r ib u t io n of T o t a l I n c o m e P a y m e n t s by Nevada T y p e of P a y m e n t 1946, 1951, 1952 Wages and salaries 130 Proprietors’ income Property income Other income ............... .1 9 4 6 . .......... 1951. .......... 1952. .......... 58 58 62 25 27 23 8 9 9 ,. .......... .1 9 4 6 . 1951. . . , . 1952, , , . 62 66 68 21 17 15 10 11 11 8 6 6 6 6 6 , Idaho ................... .1 9 4 6 . 1951 .......... 1952 49 59 58 38 27 28 7 8 9 6 6 5 5 4 Arizona California California 1 20 Twelfth District 7 Nevada ............... .1 9 4 6 . , 1951 1952. ,. 58 62 65 25 21 19 10 12 12 Oregon ............... .1 9 4 6 . 1951. .......... 1952 .......... 61 67 66 25 18 18 7 9 9 .. , ,. , 60 68 69 24 20 16 7 7 8 . . . .1946 .......... 1951, . . . . 1952 ,. 62 68 69 22 17 16 8 9 9 D istrict. 1946. .......... 1951. .......... 1952. .......... 62 66 68 23 18 16 10 11 10 6 6 United States . . , .19 4 6 . .......... 1951. .......... 1952. , , . 62 67 69 20 17 15 10 11 11 110 6 6 U t a h ...................... .1 9 4 6 . 1951 1952 W ashington Twelfth Oregon 7 6 7 9 6 6 8 6 100 United States Idah o_____ 7 7 90 Utah___ Arizona 7 80 N o t e : The above figures supersede others previously published in this Review. State income statistics for 1951 were revised by the Department of Commerce. Washington^ 1946 JL _______L JL 1951 1952 Source : United States Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Busi ness, Au gust 1953, pp. 7-15. September 1953 M O N T H L Y R E V IE W come which comprises the income of unincorporated en terprises (including farms) declined during the postwar years. On the national level, approximately 43 percent of proprietors’ income is accounted for by farm pro prietors’ net returns. Assuming this breakdown to be approximately the same for the District, the decline in income from this source appears to conform to the change in agricultural income. During the 1946-52 period, both proprietors’ income and agricultural income in the Dis trict declined as proportions of total income payments. All states in the District shared in the declining impor tance of proprietors’ income during this postwar period. The outstanding change occurred in Idaho where pro prietors’ income as a proportion of total income payments declined from 38 percent in 1946 to 27 percent in 1952. This paralleled a decline of 7.5 percentage points in the proportion of agricultural income in the state. Per capita income payments The effect on total income payments of changes in income sources has been gradual and therefore over shadowed by the effect of the more dramatic population movements into the District. Between July 1, 1940 and July 1, 1952, population increased in the District at an average annual rate of 4.7 percent compared with a national rate of 1.5 percent. The larger annual percentage 119 rate of increase in the District relative to the nation re sulted primarily from the rapid growth in District popu lation during the 1940-46 period. In the postwar period, the difference in the rates of population growth in the District and the nation has been significantly smaller. The effect of these population movements on the rela tive economic welfare of the District is shown in part by the changes in per capita income payments to the District and its states. The differences in percentage changes in income and population movements in the District and nation has meant a nearly equal percentage change in per capita income payments in the two areas. During the 1946-52 period, per capita income payments for the Dis trict increased 36 percent compared with a national in crease of 35 percent. In 1952, per capita income payments in the District rose 5 percent above 1951 compared with a 4 percent national increase. This relative increase in per capita income during 1952 is striking when we note that the District had a population percentage increase nearly double that of the United States. The nation’s population increased by 1.6 percent between July 1, 1951 and July 1, 1952 compared with a 2.9 percent increase in the Dis trict. Just how the states in the District conformed to this pattern is shown in the accompanying chart in which state and District per capita income changes are compared with those of the United States for the postwar years. 120 September 1953 FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF S A N FR A N C ISCO BUSINESS INDEXES— TW ELFTH DISTRICT1 (1947-49 average = 100) Total Waterborne Car nonagri Total Retail Dep’t foreign cultural mf’g loadings store food trade** • Wheat Electric employ employ (num sales prices • Copper9 flour* power ment4 ber)2 (value)2 > 6 Exports Imports ment Industrial production (physical volume)3 Year and month 1929 1931 1933 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 Petroleum* Lumber Crude Refined Cement 97 51 41 54 70 74 58 72 79 93 93 90 90 72 85 97 104 99 87 57 52 62 64 71 75 67 67 69 74 85 93 97 94 100 101 114 107 99 98 106 107 1952 July August September October November December 108 106 109 116 105 99 107 107 107 107 107 108 1953 January February M arch April M ay June July 120 120 112 120 11 1 116 117 107 108 109 108 109 112 110 110 78 55 50 56 61 65 64 63 63 68 71 83 93 98 91 98 100 54 36 27 33 58 56 45 56 61 81 96 79 63 65 81 96 104 103 103 100 112 116 128 124 112 116 122 122 117 118 114 115 117 123 122 12 1 127 125 Lead* 165 100 72 86 96 114 92 93 108 109 114 100 90 78 70 94 105 11 0 109 89 86 125 131 131 142 133 126 68 105 131 126 132 142 134 140 77 85 85 83 75 78r 81 78 80 85 78 66 105 49 17 37 64 88 58 80 94 107 123 125 112 90 71 106 1 01 93 115 115 112 106 105 1 12 115 116 11 1 109 113 116 114 115 105 104 95 96 29 29 26 30 34 38 36 40 43 49 60 76 82 78 78 90 101 108 119 136 144 90 103 99 96 97 96 92 96 96 91 99 90 88 98 11 0 1 12 108 113 64 50 42 48 48 50 48 47 47 52 63 69 68 70 80 96 103 100 100 113 115 190 138 110 135 131 170 164 163 132 124 80 72 109 116 119 87 95 101 iÓÓa lO lo 96a 95a 99a 102a 99a 103a 112a 116a ‘ *47 54 60 51 55 63 83 121 164 158 122 97a 100a 102a 97a 105a 122a 130a 30 25 18 24 28 30 28 31 33 40 49 59 65 72 91 99 104 98 105 109 114 "8 9 129 86 85 91 186 171 "5 7 81 98 121 137 157 200 116a 118a 119a 119a 118a 118a 130a 131a 131a 134a 134a 135a 96 101 108 98 102 100 111a 116a 114a 118a 117a 117a 114 114 114 113 114 115 144 153 142 145 135 148 187 293 253 319 194 232 141 154 142 165 167 179 75 87 81 84 81 91 87 87 102 68 52 66 77 81 72 77 82 95 102 99 105 100 101 106 100 94 97 100 101 150 153 145 146 141 138 86 118a 119a 119a 119a 119a 120ar 119a 136a 135a 136a 136a 137a 137a 138a 94 102 102 104 102 111 95 116a 116a 119a 116a 12 Aar 120 ar 117 a 114 112 113 113 113 113 113 151 158 179 164 195 187 336 336 384 BANKING AN D CREDIT STATISTICS— TW ELFTH DISTRICT (amounts in millions of dollars) Year and month Bank Condition items of all member banks7 rates on Demand Total short-term U.S. Loans business deposits time and Gov’t loans9 discounts securities adjusted8 deposits 2,239 1,898 1,486 1,537 1,682 1,871 1,869 1,967 2,130 2,451 2,170 2,106 2,254 2,663 4,068 5,358 6,032 5,925 7,093 7,866 8,839 495 547 720 1,275 1,334 1,270 1,323 1,450 1,482 1,738 3,630 6,235 8,263 10,450 8,426 7,247 6,366 7,016 6,415 6,463 6,619 1,234 984 951 1,389 1,791 1,740 1,781 1,983 2,390 2,893 4,356 5,998 6,950 8,203 8,821 8,922 8,655 8,536 9,254 9,937 10,520 1,790 1,727 1,609 2,064 2,101 2,187 2,221 2,267 2,360 2,425 2,609 3,226 4,144 5,211 5,797 6,006 6,087 6,255 6,302 6,777 7,502 1952 August September October November December 8,270 8,444 8,605 8,805 8,844 6,469 6,473 6,765 6,808 6,627 9,679 9,908 10,125 10,281 10,504 7,197 7,249 7,336 7,331 7,498 1953 January February March April M ay June July August 8,816 8,838 8,983 9,054 9,092 9,156 9,167 9,229 6,633 6,474 6,299 6,173 6,020 5,997 6,675 6,589 10,390 9,911 9,937 10,011 9,843 9,899 10,005 9,950 7,490 7,551 7,560 7,597 7,627 7,703 7,729 7,749 1929 1931 1933 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 Member bank reserves and related items1 0 Reserve bank credit1 1 — Coin and Commercial Treasury currency in 2 opérations1 operations1 circulation1 2 1 0 154 110 163 227 90 240 192 148 596 - 1 ,9 8 0 -3 ,7 5 1 - 3 ,5 3 4 - 3 ,7 4 3 - 1 ,6 0 7 510 + 472 930 - 1 ,1 4 1 - 1 ,5 8 2 - 1 ,9 1 2 + + + + + + + + + +1 +2 +4 +4 +4 +1 + + 34 21 2 2 6 1 3 2 2 4 107 214 98 76 9 302 17 13 39 21 7 + — + + — 213 230 236 72 299 - 126 176r 294 29 240 + + + + + 163 237r 267 79 422 + + 138 83 220 16 12 39 75 100 - 263 119 147 277r 174r 531 184 99 + 136 13 240 239r 294r 435 274 177 + + + — — + + + + + + — + — 3.20 3.35 3.66 3.95 3.96 3.95 4.01 + + + — — + 4.18 — — + 23 154 150 219 454 157 276 245 420 ,000 ,826 ,486 ,483 ,682 ,329 698 — 482 + 378 ,198 +1 + 1 ,983 + 2 ,265 — + + + + + + — Reserves Bank debits Index 31 cities3 » ** (1947-49=» 100)2 6 48 18 14 38 3 20 31 96 227 643 708 789 545 326 206 209 65 14 189 132 175 147 185 287 479 549 565 584 754 930 1,232 1,462 1,706 2,033 2,094 2,202 2,420 1,924 2,026 2,269 2,514 42 28 18 25 30 32 29 30 32 39 48 60 66 72 86 95 103 102 115 132 140 + + + + — 49 4 32 34 12 2,535 2,363 2,527 2,616 2,514 134 144 146 141 157 — 77 22 18 11 22 39 3 36 2,565 2,491 2,394 2,378 2,463 2,275 2,450 2,397 146 150 164 153 150 155 148 142 + + + — + + + + + + + + — — — — — + + + — + + + + 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, except where indicated- Except for department store statistics, all indexes are based upon data from outside sources, as follows: lumber, various lumber trade associations; petroleum, cement, copper, and lead, U.S. Bureau of Mines; wheat flour, U.S. Bureau of the Census; electric power, Federal Power Commission; nonagricultural and manufacturing employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cooperating state agencies; retail food prices, U .S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; carloadings, various railroads and railroad associations; and foreign trade, U .S. Bureau of the Census. ' * N ot adjusted for seasonal variation. 4 Excludes fish, fruit, and vegetable canning. 6 Los Angeles, San Francisco, and 2 Daily average. « Commercial cargo only, in physical volume, for Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Oregon, and Washington customs Seattle indexes combined. districts; starting with July 1950, “ special category” exports are excluded because of security reasons. 7 Annual figures are as of end of year, monthly figures as of last Wednesday in month or, where applicable, as of call report date. 8 Demand deposits, excluding interbank and U.S. G ov’t deposits, less cash items in process of collection. M onthly data partly estimated. 9 Average rates on loans made in five major cities during the first 15 days of the month. 10 End of year and end of month figures. 1 Changes from end of previous month or year. 1 12 Minus sign indicates flow of funds out of the District in the case of commercial operations, and excess of receipts over disbursements in the case of Treasury operations. « Debits to total deposit accounts prior to 1942, debits to demand deposit accounts from 1942 on, excluding interbank deposits, a— New revised series, r— Revised.
@FedFRASER